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Ecolab Inc.
ECL · US · NYSE
237.2
USD
-3.04
(1.28%)
Executives
Name Title Pay
Mr. Andrew Hedberg Director of Investor Relations --
Mr. Darrell R. Brown President & Chief Operating Officer 2.64M
Mr. David Bingenheimer Executive Vice President & Chief Information Officer --
Ms. Jandeen Boone Executive Vice President, General Counsel, Secretary & Interim Chief Compliance Officer --
Ms. Laurie M. Marsh Executive Vice President of Human Resources 552K
Mr. Scott D. Kirkland Chief Financial Officer 2.41M
Ms. Gail Peterson Executive Vice President of Global Marketing & Communications --
Mr. Christophe Beck Chief Executive Officer & Chairman of the Board 5.42M
Mr. Machiel Duijser Executive Vice President & Chief Supply Chain Officer 1.66M
Dr. Larry L. Berger Executive Vice President & Chief Technology Officer --
Insider Transactions
Date Name Title Acquisition Or Disposition Stock / Options # of Shares Price
2024-06-30 ZILLMER JOHN J director A - A-Award Common Stock 141.31 0
2024-06-30 Vautrinot Suzanne M director A - A-Award Common Stock 141.31 0
2024-06-30 REICH VICTORIA director A - A-Award Common Stock 141.31 0
2024-06-30 NOWELL LIONEL L III director A - A-Award Common Stock 141.31 0
2024-06-30 McKibben Tracy B director A - A-Award Common Stock 141.31 0
2024-06-30 MacLennan David director A - A-Award Common Stock 49.33 238.84
2024-06-30 MacLennan David director A - A-Award Common Stock 141.31 0
2024-06-30 LARSON MICHAEL director A - A-Award Common Stock 141.31 0
2024-06-30 HIGGINS ARTHUR J director A - A-Award Common Stock 130.84 238.84
2024-06-30 HIGGINS ARTHUR J director A - A-Award Common Stock 141.31 0
2024-06-30 Green Eric Mark director A - A-Award Common Stock 144.41 238.84
2024-06-30 Green Eric Mark director A - A-Award Common Stock 141.31 0
2024-06-30 Ballard Shari L director A - A-Award Common Stock 141.31 238.84
2024-06-30 Ballard Shari L director A - A-Award Common Stock 141.31 0
2024-06-30 Althoff Judson director A - A-Award Common Stock 141.31 0
2024-06-16 Boone Jandeen M EVP, GC, Sec & Interim CCO D - Common Stock 0 0
2016-12-02 Boone Jandeen M EVP, GC, Sec & Interim CCO D - Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 161 119.12
2018-12-06 Boone Jandeen M EVP, GC, Sec & Interim CCO D - Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 777 137.087
2019-12-04 Boone Jandeen M EVP, GC, Sec & Interim CCO D - Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 611 158.515
2020-12-03 Boone Jandeen M EVP, GC, Sec & Interim CCO D - Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 523 184.39
2021-12-03 Boone Jandeen M EVP, GC, Sec & Interim CCO D - Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 508 221.41
2022-12-01 Boone Jandeen M EVP, GC, Sec & Interim CCO D - Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 552 223.78
2023-12-07 Boone Jandeen M EVP, GC, Sec & Interim CCO D - Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 2470 148.495
2024-12-06 Boone Jandeen M EVP, GC, Sec & Interim CCO D - Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 1562 191.03
2026-11-02 Boone Jandeen M EVP, GC, Sec & Interim CCO D - Restricted Stock Units 1769 0
2024-05-06 ZILLMER JOHN J director A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 934 228.255
2024-05-06 Vautrinot Suzanne M director A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 934 228.255
2024-05-06 REICH VICTORIA director A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 934 228.255
2024-05-06 NOWELL LIONEL L III director A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 934 228.255
2024-05-06 McKibben Tracy B director A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 934 228.255
2024-05-06 MacLennan David director A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 934 228.255
2024-05-06 LARSON MICHAEL director A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 934 228.255
2024-05-06 HIGGINS ARTHUR J director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2300 115.075
2024-05-06 HIGGINS ARTHUR J director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2200 112.745
2024-05-06 HIGGINS ARTHUR J director D - S-Sale Common Stock 4500 227.523
2024-05-06 HIGGINS ARTHUR J director A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 934 228.255
2024-05-06 HIGGINS ARTHUR J director D - M-Exempt Non-Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 2300 115.075
2024-05-06 HIGGINS ARTHUR J director D - M-Exempt Non-Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 2200 112.745
2024-05-06 Green Eric Mark director A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 934 228.255
2024-05-06 Ballard Shari L director A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 934 228.255
2024-05-06 Althoff Judson director A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 934 228.255
2024-05-06 Althoff Judson director A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Options (Right to Buy) 177 228.255
2024-05-03 MacLennan David director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 650 227.366
2024-03-31 ZILLMER JOHN J director A - A-Award Common Stock 146.23 0
2024-03-31 Vautrinot Suzanne M director A - A-Award Common Stock 146.23 0
2024-03-31 REICH VICTORIA director A - A-Award Common Stock 146.23 0
2024-03-31 NOWELL LIONEL L III director A - A-Award Common Stock 146.23 0
2024-03-31 McKibben Tracy B director A - A-Award Common Stock 146.23 0
2024-03-31 MacLennan David director A - A-Award Common Stock 52.81 230.807
2024-03-31 MacLennan David director A - A-Award Common Stock 146.23 0
2024-03-31 LARSON MICHAEL director A - A-Award Common Stock 146.23 0
2024-03-31 HIGGINS ARTHUR J director A - A-Award Common Stock 135.39 230.807
2024-03-31 HIGGINS ARTHUR J director A - A-Award Common Stock 146.23 0
2024-03-31 Green Eric Mark director A - A-Award Common Stock 135.39 230.807
2024-03-31 Green Eric Mark director A - A-Award Common Stock 146.23 0
2024-03-31 BECK BARBARA director A - A-Award Common Stock 157.05 230.807
2024-03-31 BECK BARBARA director A - A-Award Common Stock 146.23 0
2024-03-31 Ballard Shari L director A - A-Award Common Stock 146.22 230.807
2024-03-31 Ballard Shari L director A - A-Award Common Stock 146.23 0
2024-03-31 Althoff Judson director A - A-Award Common Stock 64.28 0
2024-03-15 Vautrinot Suzanne M director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2400 104.85
2024-03-15 Vautrinot Suzanne M director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 500 104.85
2024-03-15 Vautrinot Suzanne M director D - F-InKind Common Stock 233 224.89
2024-03-15 Vautrinot Suzanne M director D - F-InKind Common Stock 1118 224.89
2024-03-15 Vautrinot Suzanne M director D - M-Exempt Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 500 104.85
2024-03-15 Busch Angela M EVP - CORP STRAT & BUS DEV A - M-Exempt Common Stock 6118 107.685
2024-03-15 Busch Angela M EVP - CORP STRAT & BUS DEV D - F-InKind Common Stock 4384 224.89
2024-03-15 Busch Angela M EVP - CORP STRAT & BUS DEV D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 6118 107.685
2024-03-14 LARSON MICHAEL director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2400 104.85
2024-03-14 LARSON MICHAEL director D - F-InKind Common Stock 1119 224.745
2024-03-14 LARSON MICHAEL director D - M-Exempt Non-Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 2400 104.85
2024-02-01 Cook Gregory B EVP & PRES - INST GROUP A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1500 119.12
2024-02-01 Cook Gregory B EVP & PRES - INST GROUP D - F-InKind Common Stock 1012 224.487
2024-03-01 Cook Gregory B EVP & PRES - INST GROUP D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 1500 119.12
2024-02-25 Granucci Nicolas A EVP & PRES - GLOBAL PEST A - M-Exempt Common Stock 216 0
2024-02-25 Granucci Nicolas A EVP & PRES - GLOBAL PEST D - F-InKind Common Stock 66 220.46
2024-02-25 Granucci Nicolas A EVP & PRES - GLOBAL PEST D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 216 0
2024-02-25 Cook Gregory B EVP & PRES - INST GROUP A - M-Exempt Common Stock 169 0
2024-02-25 Cook Gregory B EVP & PRES - INST GROUP D - F-InKind Common Stock 48 220.46
2024-02-25 Cook Gregory B EVP & PRES - INST GROUP D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 169 0
2024-02-25 Busch Angela M EVP - CORP STRAT & BUS DEV A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2345 0
2024-02-25 Busch Angela M EVP - CORP STRAT & BUS DEV D - F-InKind Common Stock 728 220.46
2024-02-25 Busch Angela M EVP - CORP STRAT & BUS DEV D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 2345 0
2024-02-25 Bradway Jennifer J SVP & CORPORATE CONTROLLER A - M-Exempt Common Stock 183 0
2024-02-25 Bradway Jennifer J SVP & CORPORATE CONTROLLER D - F-InKind Common Stock 56 220.46
2024-02-25 Bradway Jennifer J SVP & CORPORATE CONTROLLER D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 183 0
2023-02-21 Althoff Judson - 0 0
2024-02-21 Sved Gergely EVP & PRES - HC & LIFE SCI A - A-Award Common Stock 744 0
2024-02-21 Sved Gergely EVP & PRES - HC & LIFE SCI D - F-InKind Common Stock 419 216.66
2024-02-21 Peterson Gail EVP - GLOBAL MKTG & COMMS A - A-Award Common Stock 1427 0
2024-02-21 Peterson Gail EVP - GLOBAL MKTG & COMMS D - F-InKind Common Stock 464 216.66
2024-02-21 Marsh Laurie M EVP - HUMAN RESOURCES A - A-Award Common Stock 2295 0
2024-02-21 Marsh Laurie M EVP - HUMAN RESOURCES D - F-InKind Common Stock 727 216.66
2024-02-21 Kirkland Scott D CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER A - A-Award Common Stock 931 0
2024-02-21 Kirkland Scott D CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 303 216.66
2024-02-21 Granucci Nicolas A EVP & PRES - GLOBAL PEST A - A-Award Common Stock 658 0
2024-02-21 Granucci Nicolas A EVP & PRES - GLOBAL PEST D - F-InKind Common Stock 229 216.66
2024-02-21 Duijser Machiel EVP & CSCO A - A-Award Common Stock 2978 0
2024-02-21 Duijser Machiel EVP & CSCO D - F-InKind Common Stock 933 216.66
2024-02-21 De Boo Alexander A. EVP & PRES - GLOBAL MARKETS A - A-Award Common Stock 993 0
2024-02-21 De Boo Alexander A. EVP & PRES - GLOBAL MARKETS D - F-InKind Common Stock 53 216.66
2024-02-21 Cook Gregory B EVP & PRES - INST GROUP A - A-Award Common Stock 744 0
2024-02-21 Cook Gregory B EVP & PRES - INST GROUP D - F-InKind Common Stock 253 216.66
2024-02-21 Busch Angela M EVP - CORP STRAT & BUS DEV A - A-Award Common Stock 2295 0
2024-02-21 Busch Angela M EVP - CORP STRAT & BUS DEV D - F-InKind Common Stock 728 216.66
2024-02-21 Brown Darrell R PRESIDENT & COO A - A-Award Common Stock 3226 0
2024-02-21 Brown Darrell R PRESIDENT & COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 961 216.66
2024-02-21 Bradway Jennifer J SVP & CORPORATE CONTROLLER A - A-Award Common Stock 496 0
2024-02-21 Bradway Jennifer J SVP & CORPORATE CONTROLLER D - F-InKind Common Stock 151 216.66
2024-02-21 Berger Larry L EVP & CHIEF TECHNICAL OFFICER A - A-Award Common Stock 2606 0
2024-02-21 Berger Larry L EVP & CHIEF TECHNICAL OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 821 216.66
2024-02-21 Beck Christophe CHAIRMAN & CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 11167 0
2024-02-21 Beck Christophe CHAIRMAN & CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 4404 216.66
2024-02-21 Alfano Nicholas J. EVP & PRES - GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL A - A-Award Common Stock 1489 0
2024-02-21 Alfano Nicholas J. EVP & PRES - GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL D - F-InKind Common Stock 457 216.66
2024-02-15 Bradway Jennifer J SVP & CORPORATE CONTROLLER A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1122 107.685
2024-02-15 Bradway Jennifer J SVP & CORPORATE CONTROLLER D - S-Sale Common Stock 944 216.01
2024-02-15 Bradway Jennifer J SVP & CORPORATE CONTROLLER D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 1122 107.685
2024-01-10 ZILLMER JOHN J director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2400 104.85
2024-01-10 ZILLMER JOHN J director D - F-InKind Common Stock 1277 196.95
2024-01-10 ZILLMER JOHN J director D - M-Exempt Non-Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 2400 104.85
2023-12-31 Green Eric Mark director A - A-Award Common Stock 151.03 198.632
2023-12-31 Green Eric Mark director A - A-Award Common Stock 157.33 0
2023-12-31 ZILLMER JOHN J director A - A-Award Common Stock 157.33 0
2023-12-31 Vautrinot Suzanne M director A - A-Award Common Stock 157.33 0
2023-12-31 REICH VICTORIA director A - A-Award Common Stock 157.33 0
2023-12-31 NOWELL LIONEL L III director A - A-Award Common Stock 157.33 0
2023-12-31 McKibben Tracy B director A - A-Award Common Stock 157.33 0
2023-12-31 MacLennan David director A - A-Award Common Stock 157.33 0
2023-12-31 LARSON MICHAEL director A - A-Award Common Stock 157.33 0
2023-12-31 HIGGINS ARTHUR J director A - A-Award Common Stock 151.03 198.632
2023-12-31 HIGGINS ARTHUR J director A - A-Award Common Stock 157.33 0
2023-12-31 BECK BARBARA director A - A-Award Common Stock 176.2 198.632
2023-12-31 BECK BARBARA director A - A-Award Common Stock 157.33 0
2023-12-31 Ballard Shari L director A - A-Award Common Stock 163.62 198.632
2023-12-31 Ballard Shari L director A - A-Award Common Stock 157.33 0
2023-12-06 Sved Gergely EVP & PRES - HC & LIFE SCI A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 6695 191.03
2023-12-06 Peterson Gail EVP - GLOBAL MKTG & COMMS A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 7142 191.03
2023-12-06 Minnix Lanesha EVP, GC & SECRETARY A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 13390 191.03
2023-12-06 Marsh Laurie M EVP - HUMAN RESOURCES A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 11159 191.03
2023-12-06 Kirkland Scott D CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 23210 191.03
2023-12-06 Granucci Nicolas A EVP & PRES - GLOBAL PEST A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 5356 191.03
2023-12-06 Duijser Machiel EVP & CSCO A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 14283 191.03
2023-12-06 De Boo Alexander A. EVP & PRES - GLOBAL MARKETS A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 8927 191.03
2023-12-06 Cook Gregory B EVP & PRES - INST GROUP A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 11605 191.03
2023-12-06 Busch Angela M EVP - CORP STRAT & BUS DEV A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 8927 191.03
2023-12-06 Brown Darrell R PRESIDENT & COO A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 24103 191.03
2023-12-06 Bradway Jennifer J SVP & CORPORATE CONTROLLER A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 4910 191.03
2023-12-06 Berger Larry L EVP & CHIEF TECHNICAL OFFICER A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 10712 191.03
2023-12-06 Beck Christophe CHAIRMAN & CEO A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 80342 191.03
2023-12-06 Alfano Nicholas J. EVP & PRES - GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 11605 191.03
2023-04-01 Alfano Nicholas J. EVP & PRES - GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL D - Common Stock 0 0
2023-12-04 Marsh Laurie M EVP - HUMAN RESOURCES A - M-Exempt Common Stock 11917 117.73
2023-12-04 Marsh Laurie M EVP - HUMAN RESOURCES D - S-Sale Common Stock 11917 191.414
2023-12-04 Marsh Laurie M EVP - HUMAN RESOURCES D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 11917 117.73
2023-12-03 Kirkland Scott D CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2482 0
2023-12-03 Kirkland Scott D CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 760 192.145
2023-12-03 Kirkland Scott D CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 2482 0
2023-12-03 Bradway Jennifer J SVP & CORPORATE CONTROLLER A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1489 0
2023-12-03 Bradway Jennifer J SVP & CORPORATE CONTROLLER D - F-InKind Common Stock 456 192.145
2023-12-03 Bradway Jennifer J SVP & CORPORATE CONTROLLER D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1489 0
2023-12-01 MacLennan David director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 800 191.526
2023-11-30 Alfano Nicholas J. EVP & PRES - GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL A - M-Exempt Common Stock 6000 119.12
2023-11-30 Alfano Nicholas J. EVP & PRES - GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL D - S-Sale Common Stock 6000 189.627
2023-11-30 Alfano Nicholas J. EVP & PRES - GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 6000 119.12
2023-11-16 Busch Angela M EVP - CORP STRAT & BUS DEV D - S-Sale Common Stock 2222 185.956
2023-11-14 Busch Angela M EVP - CORP STRAT & BUS DEV D - S-Sale Common Stock 5488 184.357
2023-11-13 De Boo Alexander A. EVP & PRES - GLOBAL MARKETS A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2150 103.265
2023-11-13 De Boo Alexander A. EVP & PRES - GLOBAL MARKETS D - F-InKind Common Stock 1592 178.22
2023-11-13 De Boo Alexander A. EVP & PRES - GLOBAL MARKETS D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 2150 103.265
2023-09-30 ZILLMER JOHN J director A - A-Award Common Stock 183.79 0
2023-09-30 Vautrinot Suzanne M director A - A-Award Common Stock 183.79 0
2023-09-30 REICH VICTORIA director A - A-Award Common Stock 183.79 0
2023-09-30 NOWELL LIONEL L III director A - A-Award Common Stock 183.79 0
2023-09-30 McKibben Tracy B director A - A-Award Common Stock 183.79 0
2023-09-30 MacLennan David director A - A-Award Common Stock 183.79 0
2023-09-30 LARSON MICHAEL director A - A-Award Common Stock 183.79 0
2023-09-30 HIGGINS ARTHUR J director A - A-Award Common Stock 176.44 170.032
2023-09-30 HIGGINS ARTHUR J director A - A-Award Common Stock 183.79 0
2023-09-30 Green Eric Mark director A - A-Award Common Stock 176.44 170.032
2023-09-30 Green Eric Mark director A - A-Award Common Stock 183.79 0
2023-09-30 BECK BARBARA director A - A-Award Common Stock 205.85 170.032
2023-09-30 BECK BARBARA director A - A-Award Common Stock 183.79 0
2023-09-30 Ballard Shari L director A - A-Award Common Stock 191.14 170.032
2023-09-30 Ballard Shari L director A - A-Award Common Stock 183.79 0
2023-09-11 Busch Angela M EVP - CORP STRAT & BUS DEV D - I-Discretionary Common Stock 1489.977 338.31
2023-08-04 Granucci Nicolas A EVP & PRES - GLOBAL PEST D - Common Stock 0 0
2023-08-04 Granucci Nicolas A EVP & PRES - GLOBAL PEST I - Common Stock 0 0
2021-12-03 Granucci Nicolas A EVP & PRES - GLOBAL PEST D - Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 2989 221.41
2022-12-01 Granucci Nicolas A EVP & PRES - GLOBAL PEST D - Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 3514 223.78
2023-12-07 Granucci Nicolas A EVP & PRES - GLOBAL PEST D - Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 7058 148.495
2021-02-25 Granucci Nicolas A EVP & PRES - GLOBAL PEST D - Restricted Stock Units 216 0
2015-12-03 Granucci Nicolas A EVP & PRES - GLOBAL PEST D - Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 2243 107.685
2016-12-02 Granucci Nicolas A EVP & PRES - GLOBAL PEST D - Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 3076 119.12
2017-12-07 Granucci Nicolas A EVP & PRES - GLOBAL PEST D - Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 3972 117.73
2018-12-06 Granucci Nicolas A EVP & PRES - GLOBAL PEST D - Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 3455 137.087
2019-12-04 Granucci Nicolas A EVP & PRES - GLOBAL PEST D - Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 3393 158.515
2020-12-03 Granucci Nicolas A EVP & PRES - GLOBAL PEST D - Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 2832 184.39
2023-08-04 Cook Gregory B EVP & PRES - INST GROUP D - Common Stock 0 0
2023-08-04 Cook Gregory B EVP & PRES - INST GROUP I - Common Stock 0 0
2017-12-07 Cook Gregory B EVP & PRES - INST GROUP D - Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 4469 117.73
2018-12-06 Cook Gregory B EVP & PRES - INST GROUP D - Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 3800 137.087
2019-12-04 Cook Gregory B EVP & PRES - INST GROUP D - Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 2714 158.515
2020-12-03 Cook Gregory B EVP & PRES - INST GROUP D - Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 2723 184.39
2021-12-03 Cook Gregory B EVP & PRES - INST GROUP D - Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 3384 221.41
2023-12-07 Cook Gregory B EVP & PRES - INST GROUP D - Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 14115 148.495
2022-05-04 Cook Gregory B EVP & PRES - INST GROUP D - Restricted Stock Units 8396 0
2022-12-01 Cook Gregory B EVP & PRES - INST GROUP D - Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 7029 223.78
2016-12-02 Cook Gregory B EVP & PRES - INST GROUP D - Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 3076 119.12
2023-08-07 MacLennan David director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 650 183.729
2023-08-03 Minnix Lanesha EVP, GC & SECRETARY D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 2690 0
2023-08-03 Minnix Lanesha EVP, GC & SECRETARY A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2690 0
2023-08-03 Minnix Lanesha EVP, GC & SECRETARY D - F-InKind Common Stock 824 183.11
2023-08-03 Marsh Laurie M EVP - HUMAN RESOURCES A - M-Exempt Common Stock 4305 0
2023-08-03 Marsh Laurie M EVP - HUMAN RESOURCES D - F-InKind Common Stock 1417 183.11
2023-08-03 Marsh Laurie M EVP - HUMAN RESOURCES D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 4305 0
2023-06-30 ZILLMER JOHN J director A - A-Award Common Stock 168.12 0
2023-06-30 Vautrinot Suzanne M director A - A-Award Common Stock 168.12 0
2023-06-30 REICH VICTORIA director A - A-Award Common Stock 168.12 0
2023-06-30 NOWELL LIONEL L III director A - A-Award Common Stock 168.12 0
2023-06-30 McKibben Tracy B director A - A-Award Common Stock 168.12 0
2023-06-30 MacLennan David director A - A-Award Common Stock 168.12 0
2023-06-30 LARSON MICHAEL director A - A-Award Common Stock 168.12 0
2023-06-30 HIGGINS ARTHUR J director A - A-Award Common Stock 161.4 185.875
2023-06-30 HIGGINS ARTHUR J director A - A-Award Common Stock 168.12 0
2023-06-30 Green Eric Mark director A - A-Award Common Stock 161.4 185.875
2023-06-30 Green Eric Mark director A - A-Award Common Stock 168.12 0
2023-06-30 BECK BARBARA director A - A-Award Common Stock 188.3 185.875
2023-06-30 BECK BARBARA director A - A-Award Common Stock 168.12 0
2023-06-30 Ballard Shari L director A - A-Award Common Stock 169.97 185.875
2023-06-30 Ballard Shari L director A - A-Award Common Stock 168.12 0
2023-06-20 Kirkland Scott D CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2150 103.265
2023-06-20 Kirkland Scott D CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 1509 180.847
2023-06-20 Kirkland Scott D CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 2150 103.265
2023-06-16 Berger Larry L EVP & CHIEF TECHNICAL OFFICER A - M-Exempt Common Stock 13819 137.087
2023-06-16 Berger Larry L EVP & CHIEF TECHNICAL OFFICER A - M-Exempt Common Stock 7889 117.73
2023-06-16 Berger Larry L EVP & CHIEF TECHNICAL OFFICER D - S-Sale Common Stock 21708 181.672
2023-06-16 Berger Larry L EVP & CHIEF TECHNICAL OFFICER D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 7889 117.73
2023-06-16 Berger Larry L EVP & CHIEF TECHNICAL OFFICER D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 13819 137.087
2023-06-14 Busch Angela M EVP - CORP STRAT & BUS DEV A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3460 103.265
2023-06-14 Busch Angela M EVP - CORP STRAT & BUS DEV D - S-Sale Common Stock 3460 182
2023-06-14 Busch Angela M EVP - CORP STRAT & BUS DEV D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 3460 103.265
2023-06-13 HIGGINS ARTHUR J director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2400 104.85
2023-06-13 HIGGINS ARTHUR J director D - S-Sale Common Stock 2400 181.33
2023-06-13 HIGGINS ARTHUR J director D - M-Exempt Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 2400 104.85
2023-06-14 MacLennan David director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 700 180.225
2023-05-18 Peterson Gail SVP - GLOBAL MKTG & COMMS D - S-Sale Common Stock 934 175
2023-05-10 Busch Angela M EVP - CORP STRAT & BUS DEV A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3000 103.265
2023-05-10 Busch Angela M EVP - CORP STRAT & BUS DEV D - S-Sale Common Stock 3000 175
2023-05-10 Busch Angela M EVP - CORP STRAT & BUS DEV D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 3000 103.265
2023-05-08 Alfano Nicholas J. EVP & PRES - GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1098 107.685
2023-05-08 Alfano Nicholas J. EVP & PRES - GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL D - S-Sale Common Stock 1098 175
2023-05-08 Alfano Nicholas J. EVP & PRES - GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 1098 107.685
2023-05-06 Sved Gergely EVP & PRES - HC & LIFE SCI A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1855 0
2023-05-06 Sved Gergely EVP & PRES - HC & LIFE SCI D - F-InKind Common Stock 1045 173.737
2023-05-06 Sved Gergely EVP & PRES - HC & LIFE SCI D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1855 0
2023-05-04 ZILLMER JOHN J director A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 1410 172.21
2023-05-04 Vautrinot Suzanne M director A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 1410 172.21
2023-05-04 MacLennan David director A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 1410 172.21
2023-05-04 REICH VICTORIA director A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 1410 172.21
2023-05-04 NOWELL LIONEL L III director A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 1410 172.21
2023-05-04 McKibben Tracy B director A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 1410 172.21
2023-05-04 LARSON MICHAEL director A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 1410 172.21
2023-05-04 HIGGINS ARTHUR J director A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 1410 172.21
2023-05-04 Green Eric Mark director A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 1410 172.21
2023-05-04 Green Eric Mark director A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 554 172.21
2023-05-04 ETTINGER JEFFREY M director A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 1410 172.21
2023-05-05 Beck Christophe CHAIRMAN & CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 25830 103.265
2023-05-05 Beck Christophe CHAIRMAN & CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 28196 173.334
2023-05-05 Beck Christophe CHAIRMAN & CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 6254 174.157
2023-05-05 Beck Christophe CHAIRMAN & CEO D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 25830 103.265
2023-05-04 BECK BARBARA director A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 1410 172.21
2023-05-04 Ballard Shari L director A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 1410 172.21
2023-04-01 Alfano Nicholas J. EVP & PRES - GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL D - Common Stock 0 0
2023-04-01 Alfano Nicholas J. EVP & PRES - GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL I - Common Stock 0 0
2015-12-03 Alfano Nicholas J. EVP & PRES - GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL D - Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 1098 107.685
2016-12-02 Alfano Nicholas J. EVP & PRES - GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL D - Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 8652 119.12
2017-12-07 Alfano Nicholas J. EVP & PRES - GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL D - Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 9930 117.73
2018-12-06 Alfano Nicholas J. EVP & PRES - GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL D - Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 9501 137.087
2019-12-04 Alfano Nicholas J. EVP & PRES - GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL D - Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 8143 158.515
2020-12-03 Alfano Nicholas J. EVP & PRES - GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL D - Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 6536 184.39
2021-12-03 Alfano Nicholas J. EVP & PRES - GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL D - Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 6768 221.41
2022-12-01 Alfano Nicholas J. EVP & PRES - GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL D - Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 6025 223.78
2023-12-07 Alfano Nicholas J. EVP & PRES - GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL D - Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 9175 148.475
2024-12-01 Alfano Nicholas J. EVP & PRES - GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL D - Restricted Stock Units 4418 0
2023-04-05 LARSON MICHAEL director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3200 84.265
2023-04-05 LARSON MICHAEL director D - F-InKind Common Stock 1632 165.15
2023-04-05 LARSON MICHAEL director D - M-Exempt Non-Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 3200 84.265
2023-03-31 ZILLMER JOHN J A - A-Award Common Stock 189.61 0
2023-03-31 Vautrinot Suzanne M A - A-Award Common Stock 189.61 0
2023-03-31 REICH VICTORIA A - A-Award Common Stock 189.61 0
2023-03-31 NOWELL LIONEL L III A - A-Award Common Stock 189.61 0
2023-03-31 McKibben Tracy B A - A-Award Common Stock 189.61 0
2023-03-31 MacLennan David A - A-Award Common Stock 189.61 0
2023-03-31 LARSON MICHAEL A - A-Award Common Stock 189.61 0
2023-03-31 HIGGINS ARTHUR J A - A-Award Common Stock 182.03 164.81
2023-03-31 HIGGINS ARTHUR J A - A-Award Common Stock 189.61 0
2023-03-31 Green Eric Mark A - A-Award Common Stock 182.03 164.81
2023-03-31 Green Eric Mark A - A-Award Common Stock 189.61 0
2023-03-31 ETTINGER JEFFREY M A - A-Award Common Stock 189.61 0
2023-03-31 BECK BARBARA A - A-Award Common Stock 212.37 164.81
2023-03-31 BECK BARBARA A - A-Award Common Stock 189.61 0
2023-03-31 Ballard Shari L A - A-Award Common Stock 182.03 164.81
2023-03-31 Ballard Shari L A - A-Award Common Stock 189.61 0
2023-03-01 Sved Gergely D - F-InKind Common Stock 442 158.95
2023-03-01 Peterson Gail D - F-InKind Common Stock 146 158.95
2023-03-01 Marsh Laurie M D - F-InKind Common Stock 664 158.95
2023-03-01 Kirkland Scott D D - F-InKind Common Stock 243 158.95
2023-03-01 De Boo Alexander A. D - F-InKind Common Stock 35 158.95
2023-03-01 Busch Angela M D - F-InKind Common Stock 624 158.95
2023-03-01 Brown Darrell R D - F-InKind Common Stock 926 158.95
2023-03-01 Bradway Jennifer J D - F-InKind Common Stock 165 158.95
2023-03-01 Berger Larry L D - F-InKind Common Stock 742 158.95
2023-03-03 Berger Larry L D - S-Sale Common Stock 4404 162.949
2023-03-01 Beck Christophe D - F-InKind Common Stock 2334 158.95
2023-02-26 Duijser Machiel A - M-Exempt Common Stock 4203 0
2023-02-26 Duijser Machiel D - F-InKind Common Stock 1303 157.285
2023-02-26 Duijser Machiel D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 4203 0
2023-02-25 Busch Angela M A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2345 0
2023-02-25 Busch Angela M D - F-InKind Common Stock 718 157.285
2023-02-25 Busch Angela M D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 2345 0
2023-02-22 Sved Gergely A - A-Award Common Stock 784 0
2023-02-22 Peterson Gail A - A-Award Common Stock 405 0
2023-02-22 Marsh Laurie M A - A-Award Common Stock 2092 0
2023-02-22 Kirkland Scott D A - A-Award Common Stock 758 0
2023-02-22 Duijser Machiel A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 13112 0
2023-02-22 De Boo Alexander A. A - A-Award Common Stock 654 0
2023-02-22 Busch Angela M A - A-Award Common Stock 1961 0
2023-02-22 Brown Darrell R A - A-Award Common Stock 3137 0
2023-02-22 Bradway Jennifer J A - A-Award Common Stock 458 0
2023-02-22 Berger Larry L A - A-Award Common Stock 2353 0
2023-02-22 Beck Christophe A - A-Award Common Stock 7190 0
2023-02-16 MacLennan David A - A-Award Common Stock 500 164.162
2023-02-01 ZILLMER JOHN J A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3200 84.265
2023-02-01 ZILLMER JOHN J D - F-InKind Common Stock 1740 154.885
2023-02-01 ZILLMER JOHN J D - M-Exempt Non-Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 3200 84.265
2022-12-31 ZILLMER JOHN J director A - A-Award Common Stock 214.65 0
2022-12-31 Vautrinot Suzanne M director A - A-Award Common Stock 214.65 0
2022-12-31 REICH VICTORIA director A - A-Award Common Stock 214.65 0
2022-12-31 NOWELL LIONEL L III director A - A-Award Common Stock 214.65 0
2022-12-31 McKibben Tracy B director A - A-Award Common Stock 214.65 0
2022-12-31 MacLennan David director A - A-Award Common Stock 214.65 0
2022-12-31 LARSON MICHAEL director A - A-Award Common Stock 214.65 0
2022-12-31 HIGGINS ARTHUR J director A - A-Award Common Stock 206.06 145.587
2022-12-31 HIGGINS ARTHUR J director A - A-Award Common Stock 214.65 0
2022-12-31 Green Eric Mark director A - A-Award Common Stock 56 0
2022-12-31 ETTINGER JEFFREY M director A - A-Award Common Stock 214.65 0
2022-12-31 BECK BARBARA director A - A-Award Common Stock 240.4 145.587
2022-12-31 BECK BARBARA director A - A-Award Common Stock 214.65 0
2022-12-31 Ballard Shari L director A - A-Award Common Stock 206.06 145.587
2022-12-31 Ballard Shari L director A - A-Award Common Stock 214.65 0
2022-12-07 Sved Gergely EVP & PRES - HC & LIFE SCI A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 12704 0
2022-12-07 Peterson Gail SVP - GLOBAL MKTG & COMMS A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 12351 0
2022-12-07 Minnix Lanesha EVP, GC & SECRETARY A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 22232 0
2022-12-07 Marsh Laurie M EVP - HUMAN RESOURCES A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 19056 0
2022-12-07 Kirkland Scott D CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 40582 0
2022-12-07 Duijser Machiel EVP & CSCO A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 25408 0
2022-12-07 De Boo Alexander A. EVP & PRES - GLOBAL MARKETS A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 9881 0
2022-12-07 Busch Angela M EVP - CORP STRAT & BUS DEV A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 17291 0
2022-12-07 Brown Darrell R PRESIDENT & COO A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 35288 0
2022-12-07 Bradway Jennifer J SVP & CORPORATE CONTROLLER A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 8116 0
2022-12-07 Berger Larry L EVP & CHIEF TECHNICAL OFFICER A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 19409 0
2022-12-07 Beck Christophe CHAIRMAN & CEO A - A-Award Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 105865 0
2022-12-08 Green Eric Mark None None - None None None
2022-12-08 Green Eric Mark - 0 0
2022-11-08 MacLennan David director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 800 139.66
2022-09-30 ZILLMER JOHN J director A - A-Award Common Stock 213.94 0
2022-09-30 Vautrinot Suzanne M director A - A-Award Common Stock 213.94 0
2022-09-30 REICH VICTORIA director A - A-Award Common Stock 213.94 0
2022-09-30 NOWELL LIONEL L III director A - A-Award Common Stock 213.94 0
2022-09-30 McKibben Tracy B director A - A-Award Common Stock 213.94 0
2022-09-30 MacLennan David director A - A-Award Common Stock 213.94 0
2022-09-30 LARSON MICHAEL director A - A-Award Common Stock 213.94 0
2022-09-30 HIGGINS ARTHUR J director A - A-Award Common Stock 205.38 146.07
2022-09-30 HIGGINS ARTHUR J director A - A-Award Common Stock 213.94 0
2022-09-30 ETTINGER JEFFREY M director A - A-Award Common Stock 213.94 0
2022-09-30 BECK BARBARA director A - A-Award Common Stock 239.61 146.07
2022-09-30 BECK BARBARA director A - A-Award Common Stock 213.94 0
2022-09-30 Ballard Shari L director A - A-Award Common Stock 205.38 146.07
2022-09-30 Ballard Shari L director A - A-Award Common Stock 213.94 0
2022-09-07 Busch Angela M EVP - CORP STRAT & BUS DEV D - S-Sale Common Stock 2300 170.66
2022-09-07 Busch Angela M EVP - CORP STRAT & BUS DEV D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 2300 0
2022-08-22 GATES WILLIAM H III 10 percent owner A - P-Purchase Common Stock 84 170.9043
2022-08-19 CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. A - P-Purchase Common Stock 8934 170.3644
2022-08-22 GATES WILLIAM H III 10 percent owner A - P-Purchase Common Stock 8934 170.3644
2022-08-22 GATES WILLIAM H III 10 percent owner A - P-Purchase Common Stock 12394 169.3505
2022-08-19 GATES WILLIAM H III 10 percent owner A - P-Purchase Common Stock 100 174.215
2022-08-19 GATES WILLIAM H III 10 percent owner A - P-Purchase Common Stock 6934 173.5931
2022-08-19 GATES WILLIAM H III 10 percent owner A - P-Purchase Common Stock 12929 172.5446
2022-08-19 GATES WILLIAM H III 10 percent owner A - P-Purchase Common Stock 17292 171.5576
2022-08-18 GATES WILLIAM H III 10 percent owner A - P-Purchase Common Stock 6418 175.6209
2022-08-18 GATES WILLIAM H III 10 percent owner A - P-Purchase Common Stock 39480 175.2146
2022-08-17 CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. A - P-Purchase Common Stock 39480 175.2146
2022-08-17 GATES WILLIAM H III 10 percent owner A - P-Purchase Common Stock 22697 175.1658
2022-08-17 GATES WILLIAM H III 10 percent owner A - P-Purchase Common Stock 43730 174.5437
2022-08-15 McCormick Michael C. EVP CORPORATE AFFAIRS D - S-Sale Common Stock 3000 175
2022-08-15 Busch Angela M EVP - CORP STRAT & BUS DEV D - S-Sale Common Stock 2500 176.24
2022-08-15 Busch Angela M EVP - CORP STRAT & BUS DEV D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 2500 0
2022-08-16 GATES WILLIAM H III 10 percent owner A - P-Purchase Common Stock 14407 177.5468
2022-08-16 GATES WILLIAM H III 10 percent owner A - P-Purchase Common Stock 62520 176.9297
2022-08-15 GATES WILLIAM H III 10 percent owner A - P-Purchase Common Stock 238 176.7808
2022-08-15 CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. A - P-Purchase Common Stock 238 176.7808
2022-08-15 GATES WILLIAM H III 10 percent owner A - P-Purchase Common Stock 57849 176.3249
2022-08-15 GATES WILLIAM H III 10 percent owner A - P-Purchase Common Stock 8483 175.2866
2022-08-15 GATES WILLIAM H III 10 percent owner A - P-Purchase Common Stock 382 174.0197
2022-08-12 GATES WILLIAM H III 10 percent owner A - P-Purchase Common Stock 6330 174.0672
2022-08-11 CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. A - P-Purchase Common Stock 6330 174.0672
2022-08-12 GATES WILLIAM H III 10 percent owner A - P-Purchase Common Stock 17905 173.36
2022-08-12 GATES WILLIAM H III 10 percent owner A - P-Purchase Common Stock 11704 172.4366
2022-08-11 GATES WILLIAM H III 10 percent owner A - P-Purchase Common Stock 20170 172.0931
2022-08-11 GATES WILLIAM H III 10 percent owner A - P-Purchase Common Stock 129020 171.3679
2022-08-03 Minnix Lanesha EVP, GC & SECRETARY A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 8072 0
2022-08-03 Marsh Laurie M EVP - HUMAN RESOURCES A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 12915 0
2022-08-03 Bradway Jennifer J SVP & CORPORATE CONTROLLER A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 6457 0
2022-08-01 HIGGINS ARTHUR J director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3200 84.265
2022-08-01 HIGGINS ARTHUR J D - S-Sale Common Stock 3200 166.74
2022-08-01 HIGGINS ARTHUR J D - M-Exempt Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 3200 0
2022-08-01 HIGGINS ARTHUR J director D - M-Exempt Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 3200 84.265
2022-06-30 ZILLMER JOHN J A - A-Award Common Stock 205.07 0
2022-06-30 Vautrinot Suzanne M A - A-Award Common Stock 205.07 0
2022-06-30 REICH VICTORIA A - A-Award Common Stock 205.07 0
2022-06-30 NOWELL LIONEL L III A - A-Award Common Stock 205.07 0
2022-06-30 McKibben Tracy B A - A-Award Common Stock 205.07 0
2022-06-30 MacLennan David A - A-Award Common Stock 205.07 0
2022-06-30 LARSON MICHAEL A - A-Award Common Stock 205.07 0
2022-06-30 HIGGINS ARTHUR J director A - A-Award Common Stock 196.87 152.385
2022-06-30 HIGGINS ARTHUR J A - A-Award Common Stock 205.07 0
2022-06-30 ETTINGER JEFFREY M A - A-Award Common Stock 205.07 0
2022-06-30 BECK BARBARA director A - A-Award Common Stock 229.68 152.385
2022-06-30 BECK BARBARA A - A-Award Common Stock 205.07 0
2022-06-30 Ballard Shari L A - A-Award Common Stock 203.18 152.385
2022-06-08 McCormick Michael C. EVP, GC & SECRETARY D - S-Sale Common Stock 3000 167.72
2022-05-05 ZILLMER JOHN J A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 1399 0
2022-05-05 Vautrinot Suzanne M director A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 1399 168.745
2022-05-05 Vautrinot Suzanne M A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 1399 0
2022-05-05 REICH VICTORIA A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 1399 0
2022-05-05 REICH VICTORIA director A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 1399 168.745
2022-05-05 NOWELL LIONEL L III A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 1399 0
2022-05-05 NOWELL LIONEL L III director A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 1399 168.745
2022-05-05 McKibben Tracy B A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 1399 0
2022-05-05 McKibben Tracy B director A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 1399 168.745
2022-05-05 MacLennan David A - P-Purchase Common Stock 600 171.007
2022-05-05 MacLennan David director A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 1399 168.745
2022-05-05 MacLennan David A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 1399 0
2022-05-05 LARSON MICHAEL A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 1399 0
2022-05-05 LARSON MICHAEL director A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 1399 168.745
2022-05-05 HIGGINS ARTHUR J A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 1399 0
2022-05-05 HIGGINS ARTHUR J director A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 1399 168.745
2022-05-05 ETTINGER JEFFREY M A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 1399 0
2022-05-05 ETTINGER JEFFREY M director A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 1399 168.745
2022-05-05 BECK BARBARA A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 1399 0
2022-05-05 BECK BARBARA director A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 1399 168.745
2022-05-05 Ballard Shari L A - A-Award Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 1399 0
2022-05-02 Mulhere Timothy P EVP & PRES - GLOBAL INST A - M-Exempt Common Stock 14400 0
2022-05-02 Mulhere Timothy P EVP & PRES - GLOBAL INST D - F-InKind Common Stock 5667 166.38
2022-05-02 Mulhere Timothy P EVP & PRES - GLOBAL INST D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 14400 0
2022-05-02 Brown Darrell R EVP & PRES - GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL D - F-InKind Common Stock 1241 166.55
2022-05-02 Brown Darrell R EVP & PRES - GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 14400 0
2022-04-29 McKibben Tracy B A - P-Purchase Common Stock 1475 170
2022-04-28 Berger Larry L EVP & CHIEF TECHNICAL OFFICER D - D-Return Common Stock 8027 174.683
2022-04-20 LARSON MICHAEL director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3800 63.995
2022-04-20 LARSON MICHAEL director D - F-InKind Common Stock 1333 182.395
2022-04-20 LARSON MICHAEL director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 700 63.995
2022-04-20 LARSON MICHAEL D - F-InKind Common Stock 245 182.395
2022-04-20 LARSON MICHAEL D - M-Exempt Non-Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 3800 0
2022-04-20 LARSON MICHAEL director D - M-Exempt Non-Employee Director Stock Option (Right to Buy) 700 63.995
2022-04-20 LARSON MICHAEL director D - M-Exempt Non-Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 3800 63.995
2020-05-06 Sved Gergely D - Restricted Stock Units 1855 0
2020-12-03 Sved Gergely D - Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 2179 184.39
2021-12-03 Sved Gergely D - Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 3384 221.41
2022-12-01 Sved Gergely D - Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 3263 223.78
2022-03-31 ZILLMER JOHN J A - A-Award Common Stock 175.35 0
2022-03-31 Vautrinot Suzanne M A - A-Award Common Stock 175.35 0
2022-03-31 REICH VICTORIA A - A-Award Common Stock 175.35 0
2022-03-31 NOWELL LIONEL L III A - A-Award Common Stock 175.35 0
2022-03-31 McKibben Tracy B A - A-Award Common Stock 175.35 0
2022-03-31 MacLennan David A - A-Award Common Stock 175.35 0
2022-03-31 LARSON MICHAEL A - A-Award Common Stock 175.35 0
2022-03-31 HIGGINS ARTHUR J A - A-Award Common Stock 168.34 178.215
2022-03-31 HIGGINS ARTHUR J director A - A-Award Common Stock 175.35 0
2022-03-31 ETTINGER JEFFREY M A - A-Award Common Stock 175.35 0
2022-03-31 BECK BARBARA A - A-Award Common Stock 196.4 178.215
2022-03-31 BECK BARBARA director A - A-Award Common Stock 175.35 0
2022-03-31 Ballard Shari L A - A-Award Common Stock 175.35 0
2022-02-26 Duijser Machiel A - M-Exempt Common Stock 4203 0
2022-02-26 Duijser Machiel D - F-InKind Common Stock 1300 178.295
2022-02-26 Duijser Machiel D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 4203 0
2022-02-25 Busch Angela M A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2344 0
2022-02-25 Busch Angela M D - F-InKind Common Stock 718 178.295
2022-02-25 Busch Angela M D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 2344 0
2022-02-23 Simermeyer Elizabeth A A - A-Award Common Stock 2280 0
2022-02-23 Simermeyer Elizabeth A D - F-InKind Common Stock 719 175.59
2022-02-23 Peterson Gail A - A-Award Common Stock 505 0
2022-02-23 Peterson Gail D - F-InKind Common Stock 182 175.59
2022-02-23 Mulhere Timothy P A - A-Award Common Stock 3909 0
2022-02-23 Mulhere Timothy P D - F-InKind Common Stock 969 175.59
2022-02-23 McCormick Michael C. A - A-Award Common Stock 3257 0
2022-02-23 McCormick Michael C. D - F-InKind Common Stock 1018 175.59
2022-02-23 Marsh Laurie M A - A-Award Common Stock 2280 0
2022-02-23 Marsh Laurie M D - F-InKind Common Stock 721 175.59
2022-02-23 Kirkland Scott D A - A-Award Common Stock 765 0
2022-02-23 Kirkland Scott D D - F-InKind Common Stock 254 175.59
2022-02-23 De Boo Alexander A. A - A-Award Common Stock 651 0
2022-02-23 De Boo Alexander A. D - F-InKind Common Stock 38 175.59
2022-02-23 Busch Angela M A - A-Award Common Stock 1954 0
2022-02-23 Busch Angela M D - F-InKind Common Stock 622 175.59
2022-02-23 Brown Darrell R A - A-Award Common Stock 3909 0
2022-02-23 Brown Darrell R D - F-InKind Common Stock 1166 175.59
2022-02-23 Bradway Jennifer J A - A-Award Common Stock 326 0
2022-02-23 Bradway Jennifer J D - F-InKind Common Stock 118 175.59
2022-02-23 Berger Larry L A - A-Award Common Stock 2606 0
2022-02-23 Berger Larry L D - F-InKind Common Stock 820 175.59
2022-02-23 Beck Christophe A - A-Award Common Stock 3909 0
2022-02-23 Beck Christophe D - F-InKind Common Stock 1201 175.59
2022-02-23 BAKER DOUGLAS M JR A - A-Award Common Stock 34202 0
2022-02-23 BAKER DOUGLAS M JR D - F-InKind Common Stock 14747 175.59
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Transcripts
Operator:
Greetings. Welcome to the Ecolab Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Release Conference Call. At this time all participants are in listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. At this time, it is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Andy Hedberg, Vice President Investor Relations. Thank you Mr., Hedberg, you may now begin.
Andy Hedberg:
Thank you, and hello, everyone, and welcome to Ecolab’s second quarter conference call. With me today are Christophe Beck, Ecolab’s Chairman and CEO, and Scott Kirkland, our CFO. A discussion of our results along with our earnings release and the slides referencing the quarter results are available on Ecolab’s website at ecolab.com/investor. Please take a moment to read the cautionary statements in these materials, which state that this teleconference and the associated supplemental materials include estimates of future performance. These are forward-looking statements and actual results could differ materially from those projected. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are described under the Risk Factors section in our most recent Form 10-K and in our posted materials. We also refer you to the supplemental diluted earnings per share information in release. With that, I’d like to turn the call over to Christophe Beck for his comments.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Andy, and welcome to everyone on the call. I'm happy to share my perspective before we jump into Q&A. But in summary, with 35% adjusted earnings growth in Q2 and 25% to 29% earnings growth expected for the full year, I feel very good about where we are and even more where we going. Ecolab’s very strong business momentum continued in the second quarter. Our team delivered for our customers and delivered for our shareholders. Organic sales growth remained in its previously forecast 4% to 5% range, as growth in our institutions and specialty segment, normalized to a strong 7%, lapping last year's very strong 13%. Performance across the rest of our segments further improved. Our growth continues to be leveraged by exceptional organic operating income margin expansion. Margin increased by 360 basis points to 17%, which is a record second quarter margin for Ecolab, resulting in the very strong 35% growth in adjusted earnings per share. With continued top line momentum and operating margins expanding towards our 20% target. We remain firmly on our long-term 12 to 15 earnings growth trajectory. Looking at our segments, Institutional and Specialty continued to perform exceptionally well, delivering strong organic sales growth on top of last year's double-digit gains. Importantly, our business continues to significantly outperform softer restaurant food traffic trends, as our customers look to Ecolab's labor savings technologies to improve their operational performance. This growth was leveraged by continued robust operating income margin expansion with Institutional Specialties margin already exceeding 20%. Growth in our Industrial segment improved, despite continued volatile end market demand. Water sales growth accelerated to 4%, led by strong growth in downstream and double-digit growth in our global high tech business, which serves the rapidly expanding data center and microelectronic industries. As expected, sales in food and beverage were stable as good new business wins offset comparisons to last year's double-digit growth. Performance in paper improved also, a trend we can – we expect to continue, as new business wins helped us accelerate those end markets stabilized. Our Healthcare & Life Sciences segment also showed better performance. Life Sciences growth improved to 4%, as attractive share gains allowed us to outperform ongoing short-term soft industry trends. We continue to expect modest growth in our Life Sciences business during the second half of the year. Healthcare sales were down modestly, as we continue to exceed low margin business to improve our profitability. Our healthcare transformation is progressing very well. At a previously announced sale of our Global Surgical Solutions business to Medline is moving exactly as expected, subject to customary regulatory and closing conditions, we expect to close this transaction and very soon. As discussed when we announced the sale last quarter, once closed, the transaction will reduce our Healthcare & Life Sciences quarterly sales by about $100 million in quarterly operating income by about $15 million. Longer term, healthcare continues to sharpen its focus on and it's very healthy anchor instrument reprocessing business that combines consumables, personal service and digital solutions, while in other words, but typically Ecolab business, whether it is much more to be done, I'm proud of the progress we've made to create a sustainable, profitable healthcare business that will deliver even stronger value of our important hospital customers. Pest Elimination once again continued to execute exceptionally well. Organic sales grew 9% and organic operating income grew double digit, benefiting from our enterprise cross-selling strategy and innovative digital capabilities. As we continue our long-term growth journey, I'm excited to share details of our One Ecolab initiative, which will help fuel 5% to 7% long-term organic sales growth and continued to expand our operating margins towards 20% and beyond. We know what best-in-class performance looks like, the best restaurants, the best hotels for the best data centers. And we know how to deliver this by our customers, because of our experience serving millions of locations in more than 170 countries, across 40 industries. By leveraging more than 100,000 system connections and billions of proprietary data points on business outcomes, operational performance, and environmental impact, we can demonstrate how an entire network of customer sites can operate a best-in-class performance to deliver even more customer value. This will help us drive attractive growth by continuing to capture more share of our existing $55 billion cross-sell opportunity. At the same time, these new technologies will allow us to enhance the way we operate and serve our customers by realigning the function and worked on across hundreds of offices around the world into major global centers of excellence. The resulting total annualized savings of approximately $140 million are expected to be realized by 2027. Put simply One Ecolab will enable customers to reach best-in-class performance on all three fronts, business outcomes, operational performance and environmental impact by leveraging Ecolab's complete offering. Looking to the balance of 2024, the confidence we have in our performance continues to strengthen. As a result, we're increasing our outlook for full year 2024 adjusted EPS to the range of $6.50 to $6.70, up 25% to 29% versus last year. As previously discussed, this range includes an unfavorable impact in the second half of 2024 from sale of our global Surgical Solutions business. The unfavorable impact to 2024 adjusted EPS is now estimated to be $0.08 a share, which is a bit more than we had previously anticipated as we expect this transaction to close very soon. This is very good news, but it also has a bigger impact on the full year. FX on the other hand has also become more of a headwind and is now anticipated to be about $0.09 drag to full year EPS, and despite its incremental headwind to EPS, we still have increased our guidance range, which demonstrates the strong underlying momentum we have in the business. We expect to keep growing our organic sales at a similar rate as in the first half of the year, driving 2% to 3% value pricing and 1% to 2% volume growth. Attractive operating income margin expansion is expected to continue to second half 2024. The rate of exceptional expansion will moderate as benefits from lowered delivered product cost we continue to ease. Finally, we continue to anticipate quarterly adjusted diluted earnings per share growth to progressively normalize towards Ecolab's long-term 12% to 15% target as solid growth continues and impact from delivered product costs expected to normalize exiting 2024. As always, will remain good stewards of capital by continuing to invest in the business, increasing our dividend and returning cash to shareholders with great business momentum and cash flows. Our balance sheet is in a very strong position. This provides us with many options to allocate capital to growth opportunities that will generate continued strong returns for shareholders. Ecolab future has never looked brighter. Our leading customer value proposition where our technologies help customers improve the operating performance while reducing their water and energy use is increasingly relevant and continues to fuel our growth, pricing and margin expansion. We therefore, remain confident in delivering superior performance for our customers and shareholders in 2024 and beyond. So thank you for your continued support and investment in Ecolab. I look forward to your questions. Andy?
Andy Hedberg:
Thanks, Christophe. That concludes our formal remarks. Operator, would you please begin the question-and answer-period?
Operator:
Yes. Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] And our first question is from the line of Tim Mulrooney with William Blair. Please proceed with your questions.
Tim Mulrooney:
Christophe, good morning.
Christophe Beck:
Good afternoon, Tim.
Tim Mulrooney:
So I wanted to dig into the institutional segment a little bit here, which had really strong ally margins in the second quarter, but probably the strongest I've ever seen from the second quarter. I think margins typically taken the third quarter. But I'm wondering if that's the expectation this year given what we saw in 2Q? And were there any one-time factors that could help me here that we should be aware of for our models? And if I could sneak in a part to just to touch on the growth side that you're seeing in the institutional business right now, which looks really good. I was just curious how you're thinking about the sustainability of that strong performance in the second half of this year and into next year. Thank you.
Christophe Beck:
Thanks for the question. Tim, very pleased with the Institutional and Specialty segment. They're performing exceptionally well. As you've seen, as you know, so they're lapping against the 13% top line growth in Q2 of 2023. So the 7% for this year is really strong, especially in a market where food traffic is down 4%. So quite a remarkable performance. The margin that we had in Q2 were very clean for that segment. And as you know, it's a little bit seasonal, so by quarter, but generally, margins are going to remain north of 20%. And as we've said, for the full year, we should reach the 22% targeted OI margin for 2024 as segment keeps improving as well from there. So good top line, huge interest from customers, very clean. And from a margin perspective, so very strong, and it's going to keep improving as well in the next few quarters and years. So, very pleased with what IMS is doing. Innovation is also adding a lot as well as to the firepower of that business. As you know, our customers are trying to find solution to manage labor shortages, wage growth as well that they have. They need more automation, they need more systems, they need more digital technology. This is exactly what we're providing our customers. So, all-in-all, as I've shared with you many times before the pandemic, for me, institutional was kind of a steady good business for the future of Ecolab. Now, a few years later, I'm extremely bullish about that business because we're uniquely positioned to gain a lot of share at very high margin.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Ashish Sabadra with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
Ashish Sabadra:
Thanks taking my question. I just wanted to focus on the raw price dynamic. How should we think about the raw material tailwinds going into the back half of the year. And we've continued to see pretty robust gross margin expansion. How should we think about the SG&A operating leverage going forward? Thanks.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Ashish. I'll pass that question to Scott.
Scott Kirkland:
Yes, Ashish, thanks for the question. Just -- answering your first question, as we think about the DPC, as Christophe talked upfront, we saw the favorability in Q2, high single-digits. We're expecting that favorability to taper as we go into Q3, sort of, call it, low to mid-single-digits. And then by Q4, raws to get really stabilized as we think about them and going into next year, frankly, we're seeing a world where raws get back to sort of normal inflationary levels next year. Certainly, given the amount of raws, the thousands of raw materials that we buy, they move around differently in some cases, like caustic, you've seen favorability. But in other commodities, you're seeing them go the other direction, oil-based commodities in particular. And then as we think about the SG&A leverage, which your two-part question is -- as we talked about last quarter, we are making really smart growth-oriented investments, which is really driving the lion's share of the increase second quarter, the 6% year-over-year. And those investments are in frontline firepower, technology, digital technology, which is all helping long-term productivity. And we feel very good about that underlying productivity. So, in long-term, expect to get at least those historical levels of productivity going forward.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Manav Patnaik with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.
Ronan Kennedy:
Hi, good afternoon. This is Ronan Kennedy on for Manav. Thank you for taking my question. With the One Ecolab initiative, I understand the long-term guidance framework unveiled at September 23 Investor Day. I understand that contemplated SG&A productivity in addition to GM recovery. But to what extent did you consider this One Ecolab initiative and related benefits? Was it fully considered or is it incremental? And what impact -- what's the impact on the targets, the trajectory, the timeline for realization, if any?
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Ronnie. It's all going to support, obviously, our commitment to reach the 20% OI margin as quickly as we can. But most importantly, One Ecolab is a growth initiative. It's really helping fuel towards the 5% to 7%, which is the other commitment that we've made as well, which leads to this 12% to 15% earnings per share growth. When you think about it for One Ecolab, our company has anchored its strategy on circle the customer, circle the globe for a very long time. The opportunity is huge, $55 billion and close to $3 billion for our top 35 customers. Well, up to now, we had to rely very successfully so, by the way, on our teams to work together in order to provide whole value of Ecolab to our customers everywhere around the world by working together by reaching out by working as one team. One Ecolab is today hardwiring all that, that ultimately we can help our customers take a restaurant chain, for instance, understand what's my best-in-class performance that I should be aiming at, because we know what the best restaurant performance is out there. In terms of guest satisfaction, in terms of cost, in terms of environmental impact, and we can help them understand what's potential for the company, for the set of restaurants, and we will share that upside between us as value price and obviously, for the customer a net-net positive for the customer. Well, that helps us grow. That helps us improve our margin, that helps our customers improve their performance. So it's a win-win that drives as well retention or loyalty. So at the end of the day, it's growth focused and at the same time, the technology that we're using will help us reorganize the way we work, serving those customers as One Ecolab, that's going to improve as well as the productivity. We've had 20 to 30 basis points in the past of SG&A productivity growth, that's going to improve as we go forward as we implement One Ecolab, but at the same time, as Scott was mentioning before, today, we also reusing some of that margin upside in order to reinvest in growth investment. All-in-all, that will help us get to the 20% and go beyond by driving 5% to 7% top line growth.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of John Roberts of Mizuho Securities. Please proceed with your question.
John Roberts :
Yes. Maybe just further follow-up on that, Christophe. It sounds like you plan on creating centers of excellence. So what would the center excellences be? And is the charge for severance for some of the functions that are going to be replaced by the Center of Excellence?
Christophe Beck :
So, John, I'll let it to Scott to reply to that question. But generally, we've been so over the years, always evolving way we work, especially with all the technology capabilities that we have. So most of the investments share from all the technology to newer technology to that new way of working, which ultimately is going to help us grow faster and drive productivity, but bottom line, the good thing is that our team will keep strengthening as well in the meantime. So there will be no net negative for anyone in the organization. Is that Scott?
Scott Kirkland :
Yes. Thanks, John. I'll add to that, Christophe. As he said, this is not about the restructuring. It's not about cost savings. This is focused on growth. The savings, honestly, John, are pretty immaterial in context of the P&L. And if you think about this over a three-year program, the net sort of cost and savings are less than 1% on average over the next few years, really starting in 2025. But as we think about it, to your question on what that sort of nature it is and what's happening that is it's not about cutting the jobs, but about realigning where the work gets done, moving work to these centers of actions functional work really. To support the growth, create scalability to Christophe earlier point, that helps drive incremental productivity from a long-term perspective. And then to your question on the charges, the special charges will include severance. As we move work from many countries into these global COEs. But also there are other costs in there, including advisory costs, other costs, facility related costs. But again, these are going to happen over the next few years.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Joshua Spector with UBS. Please proceed with your question.
Lucas Beaumont:
Yes. Hi. This is Lucas Beaumont on for Josh. So just looking at the second half assumptions, typically like Ecolab will get a step up in EPS of sort of $0.25 or more 2Q to 3Q, I mean, there's only been a couple of instances in the last 10 years where that didn't happen. So your guide is kind of assuming that it's only up going to $0.12 to $0.20 at the high end. So firstly, I was wondering if you could just kind of walk us through why that normal seasonality doesn't make sense this year. And then secondly, the typical like 4Q move is like flat to down modestly, which is basically what you've assumed in your guide. So if we had a more typical 3Q move and then we get the normal 4Q move, you'd be pointing more to like 680 for the year versus where you guys are at on the 660. So just trying to understand sort of what's different in the setup this year, please. Thanks.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you. I'll let Scott start and I'll build on that.
Scott Kirkland:
Yes. Feel free to add to this, Christophe. Obviously a lot of move around, as Christophe talked in the second half, don't forget that. Well, we will have the, the impact of surgical, which will be a headwind, which we talked about, about $0.08 in addition to the additional headwinds that we'll see from FX. But overall, as you see this, the sales we expect to continue to accelerate throughout the year, right. And you typically see sales being higher in sort of the second and third quarter of the year. And then on the other side of this, you'll see the year-over-year margin expansion start to we'll continue to expand. But it will ease through the third quarter, as DPC eases and then DPC becomes sort of stable and ultimately a headwind next year. And so I think you have some dynamics here that are probably not going to be able to compare the second half of this year to the normal years. But getting back to this is really the – if you look at our earnings growth that we're going to drive very strong earnings growth and even excluding the DPC tailwinds, we're getting at third quarter. And then the stable DPC in the fourth quarter that we're going to be driving underlying EPS at the high end of our long-term 12% to 15% range.
Christophe Beck:
Yes, I feel really good about the second half here, when you think about it, so 35% earnings growth in Q2, 14% to 20% expected in Q3, 12% to 18% for Q4 with the midpoint of 15%, as Scott said. So with no DPC help as well at that point, including as well the impact of the surgical sale and FX as well, while demonstrates the strong business momentum and margin upwards momentum that we have as well here. So very consistent, very steady, feel really good about where we're going here.
Operator:
Next question is from the line of Chris Parkinson with Wolfe Research. Please proceed with your question.
Chris Parkinson:
Great. Thank you so much. Chris, I'd like to dig in a little bit more on Institutional and Specialty, just given kind of all the macro dynamics and your relative outperformance. But can you break down, everything that's going on in quick service, including some of these perceived value ores and obviously the mechanics of food retail and then lodging in the institutional side of it, what's been driving the degree of material outperformance. And when we think about the second half into 2025, does your team see actually any further improvements there, or is it going to be primarily market share gains that's going to drive the narrative for the foreseeable future? Thank you.
Christophe Beck:
Yes. Thank you, Chris. It's mostly market share gain, as it's been as well. So the past few quarters as mentioned, so the food traffic in restaurants in the US is down 4%. So that's really showing how much we're gaining share. The main driver in institutional and specialty of our performance is that we are helping our customers with labor automation. They don't find labor and labor is expensive at the same time and with a high turnover. Other than that, so it's pretty easy for our customers. So, it's pretty hard, obviously. All solutions that we provide them, being chemical solutions are helping doing three-in-one or our new machine program like the AI Dish Machine that we introduced at the National Restaurant Association Show a few months ago or our digital technologies as well are all helping our restaurant and hotel customers to serve more guests in a better way while using less labor. Well, this is exactly what they need. This is exactly what we're providing them. And it's exactly what competition can't really provide. So, you put it all together, that drives growth at a higher margin because everybody wins.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
John McNulty:
Yes, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. When you look at the industrial business, it looks like it's kind of a -- there's the haves and have nots and you're seeing some decent growth in areas like water, food and beverage paper still maybe struggling a little bit. I guess, can you give us your outlook for the industrial markets as you're looking forward into the back half of the year and early next year? What you're hearing from your customers, especially on some of the areas that may be struggling like the heavier water applications?
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, John. Generally, I like the progression that industrial is having. So, if you take a little bit the broader picture, the last figures, industrial has done unbelievable work in terms of margin improvement. We've reached a record level as well. And the shift to offense a year ago that we started is starting to bear fruits as well in terms of top line momentum, which is exactly where we wanted to be, getting top line moving while keep improving as well the margins, and that's exactly what's happening. So, we've moved overall segments from 1% growth in the first quarter to 2% in the second quarter. Within that as well, our largest business, which is water is at 4%, which, by the way, has been impacted as well by mining. So, underlying water would be even stronger in the downstream is really strong in water as well. Global high-tech is doing extremely well as well at the same time. So, industrial shifting very nicely. When I think about F&B and paper, they're going to keep improving in the quarters to come. So, bottom-line, you will see industrial shift even further up with very strong margin of 16% today, which is 200 basis points better than where we were in 2019. So, I think that we've really managed that very, very well and the best is yet to come.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.
Jeff Zekauskas:
Thanks very much. In the first quarter, our year-over-year volume growth was 2%. In this quarter, your year-over-year volume growth is 1%. Is the reason for the deceleration, a deceleration in volume growth in the institutional business because of tougher comparisons? And secondly, do you have a target for your global industrial business. I know you want to get to a 20% margin, and that's the business that's maybe at, I don't know, 16.5%, something like that. Do you have a goal for that business?
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Jeff. As mentioned just before, so industrial is at 16% right now, it's 200 basis points better than what it was 2019 and ultimately, we want to have industrial move towards the 20% as well, getting to 18% will be already a good step in that direction. And if we get industrial to 18% and all the other businesses get to the target, we will get north of 20% as a whole company. So feel really good about both getting beyond the 20% as a whole company and 18% for industrial, which is an unbelievable margin when you compare to competition. Now your first question on volumes, so from 2% to 1%, well, you comment was the answer. It's the lap between Q2 institutional this year versus last year, which was 13%. That's bringing the 2% to 1%. So it's a year-on-year comparison. Other than that, all businesses, all segments as you've seen, have been improving as well in the meantime. So year-on-year optical comparison, and all businesses are improving very nicely, which is why I feel good about the business momentum.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.
David Begleiter:
Thank you. Christophe, back on to the One Ecolab initiative. Do you need to make any additional investments to support this initiative? And how should we think about the rollout -- initial revenue drivers from this initiative?
Christophe Beck:
So David, thank you. It's going to be progressive. There is no revolution that's to be expected here. A lot of ground work has been done over the past few quarters as well as we now also get into execution mode. All the investments are planned in our numbers as we will share. So no surprise to be expected. So from that initiative, it's really an initiative that's helping us get towards this 5% to 7% as quickly we can. And I feel really good because we know that the €55 billion cross-sell opportunity that we have out there. And again, as mentioned before, out of the top 35 customers, we have $3 billion is available there. Well, this easier top line that we can get at a higher margin because obviously, we're serving those customers already. So the cost to serve is much lower. So when you bring it all together, it's very it's very organic, natural. There's no revolution. It's what customers have been asking for years as well. What our teams are expecting as well that when they go and serve a customer while they get the full picture of what we're doing for that customer today. At the same time, they understand what could be the best-in-class performance, how much additional value they could generate, what are the programs that they could sell to them as well and then developing an execution plan for the customer to get there and ultimately to get paid for it through the value pricing that we've been developing over the past few years. So bottom line, very organic, no incremental cost that we haven't included in our numbers as well in here. So I feel really good about where we're going with One Ecolab here.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Pavel Molchanov with Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.
Pavel Molchanov:
Thanks for taking the question. We haven't seen any M&A of late, even on a kind of bite-sized or tuck-in scale. I'm curious how you're currently evaluating the acquisition pipeline?
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Pavel. So I can't go in too much detail for obvious reasons with M&A. We've done several smaller ones over the last few years following, obviously, the acquisition of Purolite at the end of 2021. We wanted to make sure we got that integration well done, that we got the right platform for the future that we could get as well our leverage ratio also back to two. That was our promise as well. We're getting there as well as we speak, even more, obviously, with the sale of our Surgical Solutions business. So it's all done in a thoughtful manner, both from an execution perspective and from a financial perspective as well. What I can say is that our M&A pipeline of big and small opportunities is very rich. We entertain all those connections on a regular basis as well. The fact that we have a great business, performing extremely well with one of the strongest balance sheet that we've ever had, puts us in a unique position obviously, so to go after opportunities that we believe. So it would be the right one for us. So what you've seen in the past is what you're going to see in the future, but always focused on our three key priorities, as I've shared many times with you. First, it's going to be water. Second, it's going to be digital. And third, it's going to be life science. So those are going to be the main areas where we're going to be investing in M&A as well.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.
Unidentified Analyst:
Hi. It's [indiscernible] for Lawrence. Just a little bit on the other side of the coin. You did a divestiture in the low-margin healthcare, and forgive me if you've said this in the past, but are there other businesses, which you can look at where you might be exiting as well within that segment or within others?
Christophe Beck:
Not really. We, obviously, look at our portfolio on a regular basis. And really, you think the way on who would be the best owner for that business. That's been true for a very, very long time. And the surgical business was an obvious candidate, because it is a product business, it's not service business where we can apply the Ecolab model, where you have service, technology, chemistry and data that come together. Surgical was purely drapes, great drapes, obviously, but those are products. That's a business that fits very well in a Medline portfolio, much less in our own company. So that's one of the reasons why we've sold this business. At the same time, we want to make sure that our healthcare business can build from a smaller scale, a much healthier business for the future and really focused on instrument processing, which is a typical Ecolab business. Beyond that, there's no obvious business out there that that doesn't fit the portfolio doesn't have the right performance. I like a lot the broad-based nature of the performance of the business across businesses and across markets. So, in short, no obvious candidate out there to do something similar.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Shlomo Rosenbaum with Stifel. Please proceed with your question.
Shlomo Rosenbaum:
Hi, thank you. I just wanted to ask Scott to maybe dig a little bit deeper just on that volume question that was brought up before. I understand the mathematical implications of institutional growth slowing, but -- because of the comps, how should we think of that in the second half of the year? If you look at it, you -- on a total company volume, you grew 1% on a negative 1% last quarter. If you had 0% or flat volume in 3Q, does it make it tougher in order to generate the volume growth for the second half of the year? So, just trying to get to how we should think of the volume growth going forward? And then if you don't mind, I just want to ask a housekeeping question, we saw a spike up sequentially in interest expense about $7 million, but the debt level was relatively the same. I don't know if there were some inter-quarter borrowing or is there something else that's included in that line? If you could just clarify that, so we can straighten that out for our model?
Scott Kirkland:
Yes, I'll start with your last question first. If you just look at interest expense overall year-over-year, we had cash that we used to pay down debt earlier in the year in the first quarter. So, there's some impact from that as cash has come down from over $900 million at the end of 2023 to at the end of Q2, it's about $380 million. So, that's probably the biggest driver as we look sequentially on interest expense. Expect interest expense in the second half to be in that call it, $60 million to $70 million range, which is inclusive of benefit we'll get from the Orchid proceeds, which is, as you've seen in the disclosure, the gross proceeds there are about $950 million. So, back to your earlier volume question, when I think Christophe hit on exactly, which is an to Jeff's earlier comment, as we look at that sequentially, on the volume, it's really the impact of the comparisons to the institutional volume coming down from Q1 to Q2 on the more difficult comps and as we think about in the second half in that range that Christophe talked earlier in this 1% to 2%.
Christophe Beck:
And maybe building on that, my commitments to you has been so to get to this 5% to 7% as quickly as we can. 4% to 5% this year, as I've said, not every quarter is going to be created equal, mostly because of year-on-year comparison. So, 4% to 5% this year towards 5% to 7% doesn't seem to be like something crazy especially with the momentum that we're showing, and industrial also getting better, as mentioned, past remaining very strong. Institutional being in a very strong position as well. And when I see all the investments that we're making as well out of the margins improvements that we have with more feet on the street, with more capacities in growth businesses like global high tech, with more capabilities in digital and innovation around the world as well, I feel good with the trajectory that we're having moving from this 4% to 5% to 5% to 7% is going to happen so very naturally.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Steve Byrne with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.
Steve Byrne:
Yes. Thank you. I'd like to hear your view on two potentially meaningful longer-term opportunities in water. The first one being this initiative you talked about last year where you're going to be going after these -- I don't know, what is 150 companies that consume 20% of global freshwater, is that an initiative that still has a meaningful potential for you. And then the other one is with PFAS being classified as hazardous, that means every company that manages or uses it, will have to report it in 2025 under TRI, is that an initiative you are following?
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Steve. So two parts, obviously, very different components of your question here. So first, in terms of focusing on the 150 companies that use a third of the world water. This is where we focus all our attention. And as mentioned before, so our laser focus on our top 35 customer as a company aligns perfectly well with that vision of the world of those 150 companies using a third of the world water. Those are the ones that are the more interested, obviously, in our technology, helping them produce more while reducing their cost, by reducing the usage of energy and water. This is working really well, which is one of the reasons where our water business is doing well and keeps accelerating as well at the same time. Now on the PFAS question, which is an old question, we have all the technologies to get that done the right way. Regulation is going to help in a certain extent where everyone will have to play with the same rules. So we are really focusing on our customers today, helping them get plans on how to address that PFAS issue that turns into a business opportunity. So for us over time. And we focus mostly on food and beverage customers, those are the ones who have the highest interest right now. And I like progress that we're making here, but it's going to take some time to see it happen or having an impact on our top line growth. But at some point, it will.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research. Please proceed with your question.
Kevin McCarthy:
Yes. Thank you and good afternoon, Christophe. My question relates to the potential timing attached to your long-standing EBIT margin goal of 20%. Would you expect to achieve that margin target coincident with the $140 million of savings from One Ecolab or perhaps sooner than that or later. I appreciate that the macro environment obviously has something to say about the timing, but I would certainly welcome any updated thoughts on that glide path and time frame.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Kevin. It was in September or October last year that I said we will get there, so within a few years. And for sure, less than five. Well, we're almost a year later. So it's kind of the same and a year closure. To that, if anything, I feel more confident that we're going to get there. We're going to get there in time. There is no direct correlation between the One Ecolab savings and that margin, as Scott was saying before, we're talking about smaller numbers. This $140 million in the grand scheme of things. One Ecolab is mostly a growth initiative which will help, obviously, on the SG&A, but most importantly, will drive the margin, gross margin even higher, which will lead us to an OI improvement. So I stick to where we were within the next few years, and we see the PCs coming very well together. Gross margin is already close to 44%, which was the high watermark. For our company, we keep improving from there. Our SG&A is 200 basis points below where it was pre-pandemic as well in 2019 and will keep accelerating as well. Well, you bring all three together nice top line acceleration, gross margin further improvements and productivity improvements as well will mathematically lead to the 20% fairly soon.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Patrick Cunningham with Citi. Please proceed with your question.
Patrick Cunningham:
Hi. Thanks for taking my question. On the Pest Elimination business, the sales growth continues to be very strong, but the margin expansion is a bit more muted than the other segments. How should we think about the cadence of growth investments into that business and the timing on when we start to see some meaningful sales leverage and just a follow-up there is, what sort of long-term margin target do you have for that business?
Christophe Beck:
Good question, Patrick. So I really love that business, very steady growth, high single, low double, really good, not always an easy market, but whatever happens out there, it's always a very good performance. At the same time, it's the best performing Pest Elimination business in the world, which is also a good indication. And as you know, so there is no raw materials, almost none related to that business. So there is no DPC help or hurt obviously on that business. It's a business that's going to get north of 20%, for sure. And when I think about the main growth drivers here, there are two mostly. The first one is to drive cross-sell, which has been at core of our growth strategy in Pest Elimination, so selling the Pest Elimination services to existing Ecolab customers worked really well over many, many years. And second, it's to invest in connected devices. We have all the technology. We are one of the largest industrial cloud in the world. We have all sensing technology. We have all systems, we have all cybersecurity, everything that you need. Ultimately, so to connect all those millions of devices around the world that today, we go and visit regularly each of them to check whether you're going to get activities or not, well, tomorrow that's going to be very different. One data point at the National Restaurant Association Show we were in that big conference hall, where you have 600 traps in there today, we need roughly eight hours to go and check all those traps. Tomorrow, it's going to be done in 20 minutes. So just imagine how much value we can create, both in terms in terms of growth, of service to customers and naturally in terms of performance that we can drive out of the business. So that's going to drive top line growth. It's going to going to drive earnings growth, and it's going to drive return on invested capital, which is already the highest in our company even further higher.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Andy Wittmann with Robert W. Baird. Please proceed with your question.
Andy Wittmann:
Great. Thanks for taking the question this afternoon. I guess I also wanted to ask on the 1 Ecolab plan just because from the outside, it's hard to I think, understand sometimes the difference between your various plans. I think over the years, I think back to like the 2018 efficiency initiative, you talked about some of the technology investments that you made enabled those changes then, you expanded that in 2019 and then again in 2020. The institutional advancement program that you rolled out in 2023 was largely underpinned, I think Christophe about the digital investments that you made at that time as well. And then I think even the European program that you announced in 2023 also was kind of driven by digital. So this one I'm hearing again is going to be using technology to effectuate some of these efficiencies, but I mean, can you just make a little bit finer point on kind of what's different about this one compared to some of the prior ones?
Christophe Beck:
So the main difference, Andy, is that the prior ones where by individual business. It was to really improve the delivery and the performance of Institutional. From a growth perspective, you've seen the results. That's why it's working so well today. It's the only reason. Obviously, we talked about innovation as well here, but the way we've organized ourselves, the way we've leveraged technology, well has been leading to these great performance that we have in Institution and Specialty today. You look at Europe, it was also technology, but it was much more back-office technology. It was much more ERP, Andy. And when you look today, well, Europe came from 0% margin to 13%, 14% today. So a very solid good business that we have there. 1 Ecolab is connecting all the businesses together in order so for our customers to see 1 Ecolab and for us to help them understand by leveraging all Ecolab can do, what's the value, what’s the savings that me as a customer can expect if all my units were at the best performance level of all my locations, how much would that be? It's a different dimension because this one, Andy, is connecting businesses together the previous ones whereby individual businesses that all led to very good returns at the same time.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Mike Harrison with Seaport Research. Please proceed with your question.
Mike Harrison:
Hi, good afternoon. You noted the high-tech business within the Water segment is growing double-digits. Christophe, is there any way to be a little bit more specific? Is that a teens growth rate or more like 20% or 30% or even higher? And can you talk about the penetration rate with data centers? Or any other context around the opportunity that you're seeing around data centers over the next few years for your Water business? Thank you.
Christophe Beck:
So it's been in 2023, so that business, which is a few hundred million, as we've talked about, has been growing some in the 30%-ish like that. We're not disclosing too much detail so far. It will come when we have a more steady states organization and platform to serve that new industry, we will share that, obviously, with you, but kind of a few hundred million growing roughly 30% last year, what it's showing you kind of the trajectory that we have in that business. At the same time, it's a very highly profitable business because the customers we serve, which are the high-tech companies, being semiconductors, manufacturers or data centers, hyperscalers operators. Well, those ones are not looking for the most cost-efficient solution. They are trying to find partners that are helping them deliver the highest uptime, the highest power of computing, while reducing the usage of water and energy because that's the true limiting factor and that's where we invest all our resources on innovation in order to help those companies produce more computing power while reducing the impact on the environment. So the cost of it is kind of secondary which means we can invest in high technology. They pay for it. It's good for them. It's good for us. It's good for our shareholders as well. This global high-tech business has been a fantastic business and keeps getting better.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.
Q – Vincent Andrews:
Thank you. One more on the One Ecolab and Christophe, you noted that this program is designed for all of your segments. I'm wondering if you can just touch on within the different segments, are there some where you anticipate having a greater impact on volume or a greater impact on price? And overall, are there some segments that you think it will benefit more than others?
A – Christophe Beck:
It's an interesting question, Vincent. There is one that I could share with you. When I think about F&B, as we speak, so we are bringing our food and beverage, cleaning sanitation business together with our water F&B business. And don't get me wrong. It's not that suddenly we'll have at the frontline people doing both water and cleaning and sanitation. They go hand in hand, but they are complementary, like you would be in a hospital, you have several physicians that are serving you as a patient. We believe in expertise. We don't believe in generalist. But that business, which will include our cleaning and sanitation and water together, well, is one of our biggest business, one of our best franchisees as well in the world. And I believe that's going to drive a lot of further value for our customers and for us and our shareholders, obviously here. But you can think as well about institutional. When you are a restaurant chain, so with thousands of restaurants in the country or around the world, knowing what's potential of performance improvement in dollar terms that I can get if all my restaurants were performing at the best performing one. Well, that's huge insight. What's even more important. So with us is that we can deliver that performance because we've delivered it for the best-performing unit as well at the same time. And the fact that we shared then afterwards the upside for the customer what that drives mostly value price, which is not the least price, which is mostly seen in other businesses. I mean, in other companies. For us, value price, and that's why we call it that way. It's our share in the improvement that we are delivering to our customers, which is why it never goes down by the way and we keep going up as we move forward as well at the same time. So, a very good story for all businesses. Food and beverage is an obvious one and institutional another one as well. So ultimately, this is bringing our strategy of circle the customer, circle the globe in ways that are much more hard wired than the way we did it in the past where we can share the knowledge of Ecolab anywhere around the world across all businesses and industries. Well, that's a critical reason why I believe that in the quarters and years to come, we will keep delivering day in and day out and get towards our targeted performance of the 5% to 7% or 20% OI margin and 12% to 15% 0earnings per share growth as our next step of performance. And again, that's not going to be the last step. This is our next level of performance that we're all working hard to deliver as quickly as we can.
Operator:
Thank you. Mr. Hedberg, there are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the floor back to you for closing comments.
Andy Hedberg:
Thank you. That wraps up our second quarter conference call. This conference call and the associated discussion slides will be available for replay on our website. Thanks for your time and participation, hope everyone has a great rest of your day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.
Operator:
Greetings, and welcome to the Ecolab First Quarter 2024 Earnings Release Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder this conference is being recorded. At this time it's now my pleasure to introduce your host, Andy Hedberg, Vice President and Investor Relations for Ecolab. Mr. Hedberg, you may now begin your presentation.
Andy Hedberg:
Thank you, and hello, everyone, and welcome to Ecolab's First Quarter Conference Call. With me today are Christophe Beck, Ecolab's Chairman and CEO and Scott Kirkland, our CFO. A discussion of our results, along with our earnings release and the slides referencing the quarter results are available on Ecolab's website at ecolab.com/investor. Please take a moment to read the cautionary statements in these materials, which state that this teleconference and the associated supplemental materials include estimates of future performance.
These are forward-looking statements, and actual results could differ materially from those projected. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are described under the Risk Factors section in our most recent Form 10-K and in our posted materials. We also refer you to the supplemental diluted earnings per share information and release. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Christophe Beck for his comments.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you so much, Andy, and welcome to everyone on the call. We're really pleased to report that Ecolab is off to a strong start. In 2024 with first quarter organic sales growth of 5% and organic operating income margin expansion of 400 basis points, driving adjusted earnings per share up 52%. We remain firmly on our long-term 12% to 15% earnings growth trajectory with our exceptional growth in the first quarter being the result of strong execution on fundamentals and the additional benefit of lower delivered product costs.
This strong performance is a testament to the excellent dedication and execution of the entire Ecolab team, and I'm so proud of this team. We're encouraged by the current pace and momentum of our business. Our efforts resulted in the delivery of 3% pricing, which included new pricing implemented during the quarter and a modest carryover benefit from last year's pricing action and brought us slightly above our 2 percentage point plus long-term run rate. This delivery, along with continued positive volume growth is possible because of our customer value proposition because of the value we provide, the spend with Ecolab is a benefit and not a cost. This good top line growth, combined with the anticipated easing of delivered product costs, continued the strong organic operating income margin expansion across the majority of our business segments and geographical regions. We're very pleased with the margin expansion we have delivered and remain focused on achieving our 20% operating income margin target over the next few years. As we continue to execute against this target, gross margin is expected to continue on its positive trajectory. At the same time, we are now reinvesting some of these gains back into our business to fuel our long-term growth. Importantly, our underlying productivity remains strong, and we see opportunities to further improve by leveraging our leading digital capabilities. Looking across our segments, Institutional Specialty continued to perform exceptionally well. This team delivered double-digit sales growth and a very attractive operating income margin. as our labor savings value proposition continue to resonate with our customers. Going forward, we expect the rate of organic sales growth for institutional specialty to moderate somewhat as we lap last year's strong pricing delivery. Industrial made a good underlying progress, improving its volume trajectory in a volatile global environment. Excluding continued soft near-term paper industry demand, industrials volume grew, a nice improvement from the second half of last year. Health care and life sciences remained relatively flattish but life sciences sales grew modestly, which I consider constructive news given the continued short-term soft industry trends. We, therefore, expect trends to progressively improve during the second half of the year. As promised, we continue to take the action needed to transform our health care business. A year ago, we took the first step in our journey by adjusting our cost structure to a more competitive level. Then in the third quarter of last year, we took our second step by bifurcating our North American health care business into 2 separate businesses, Surgical and Infection Prevention. Today, we made further progress by announcing an agreement to sell our surgical drapes business to Midline. Once and if this transaction closes after regulatory clearance, we will have a renewed focus on the instrument reprocessing portion of the remaining health care business. This business has the core elements of the classic Ecolab business model that combines an anchor platform with consumables, personal service and digital solutions. What is more to be done. I'm proud of the progress we've made to create a more sustainable, profitable health care business that delivers for our important hospital customers. Finally, pest elimination, which is now a standalone segment due to its relevance and promising performance, continued to execute very well. Sales grew upper single digits with double-digit organic operating income growth, benefiting from a circle the customer, circle the growth, cross-selling strategy. Looking ahead, the confidence we have in our 2024 performance continues to strengthen. We expect organic sales growth to remain relatively stable, driving 2% to 3% price and 1% to 2% volume growth. We are increasing our outlook for full year 2024 adjusted EPS to the range of $6.40 to $6.70, up 23% to 29% versus last year as we now anticipate delivered product costs to ease through the third quarter though the magnitude of cost favorability is expected to gradually diminish. This along with continued pricing and volume growth I expect it to more than offset the estimated $15 million per quarter OI headwind from the divestiture of our Surgical Healthcare business once the transaction closes. As a result, we anticipate quarterly adjusted diluted earnings per share growth in the second half of 2024 to progressively normalize towards the upper end of Ecolab's long-term 12% to 15% target a short-term benefit from lower delivered product costs ease. As always, we will remain good stewards of capital by continuing to invest in the business, increasing our dividend and returning cash to shareholders. With great business momentum and cash flows, our balance sheet is in a very strong position. This provides us with many options to allocate capital to growth opportunities that will generate continued strong returns for shareholders. Ecolab's future has never looked brighter. Our leading customer value proposition where our technologies help customers improve their operating performance while reducing the water and energy use is proving to be increasingly relevant and continues to fuel our growth, pricing and margin expansion. Backed by the most talented team leading technology innovation and global capabilities, our strategic positioning enables us to consistently expand our market share within the vast and high-quality $152 billion market we serve. We, therefore, remain confident in delivering superior performance for our customers and for our shareholders for the years to come. Thank you for your continued support and investment in Ecolab. I look forward to your questions.
Andy Hedberg:
Thanks, Christophe. That concludes our formal remarks. Operator, would you please begin the question-and-answer period?
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Tim Mulrooney with William Blair.
Timothy Mulrooney:
I wanted to ask about your growth investments. It sounds like you're stepping up SG&A a little bit. So I guess my question is twofold. Number one, does this impact how you're thinking about timing to achieve your 20% OI margin? I know a big chunk was gross margin expansion, but I also know to hit that target was a couple of hundred basis points of SG&A leverage. So how are you thinking about that 20% target now? And then secondly, on the investments themselves, can you talk a little bit more detail about what are -- what parts of the business they're going into?
I know part of the reason that Ecolab has sustained its competitive advantage has been its willingness to invest in areas where others have cut costs. So I'm not saying it's a bad effect of these investments, the way that 20% OI margin timing, but I was just curious what the strategy is around the step-up here?
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Tim. Let me start with the second part of your question. We are in a great fortunate place, obviously, here where we have top line momentum, and we have margin expansion. And both are obviously feeding our opportunities to invest behind our teams, our technology and our future, which is exactly the place where we want to be on a continuous basis as well.
Now as we accelerate our growth investment, at the same time, we're also keeping a very close eye on our underlying productivity. And I like what I see. It's important to have both that on one hand, underlying productivity keeps getting better on a long-term basis, and we've done a good job at that. And at the same time, that we can invest when time is right, for the growth for the future. And regarding those investments that we're making, it's mostly behind 3 growth drivers, Tim. The first 1 is growth via power. We're a machine that's here to serve more customers to serve them more broadly and more deeply as well, having more people serving those customers and supporting those people serving those customers will feed into our accelerated growth. The second part is digital and AI technology and services that we can sell. We're making very good progress on that front, and I look forward to sharing more with you as we move forward and especially in '25 because we see a lot of very good progress on that front, serving our customers with digital technology, with AI services and data that we can sell. And the third driver, our capabilities to serve as one Ecolab, where we can bring all the businesses together to serve one customer consistently everywhere around the world and that's a unique opportunity for us to get that job done as well as we speak and in the next few quarters. And back to your first question related to the 20% OI target. Well, with faster growth and further margin expansion, it's making me more confident that we will get to this 20% margin in the next few years, as I've shared with you, and we will keep informing you as well on the progress that we're making on that path. But so far, very good progress made.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Ashish Sabadra with RBC.
Ashish Sabadra:
Just on the DPC. I was wondering if you could elaborate how much was the DPC lower on a year-on-year basis, but how it's trending compared to pre-pandemic level, expectations for second quarter and rest of the year?
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Ashish. I'll pass that question to Scott, who will be best positioned to answer.
Scott Kirkland:
Yes. Thanks, Christophe. Thanks, Ashish, for the question. So as you know, we've talked about before, we buy over 10,000 raw materials. So individually, they're moving in different places. But as we expected for Q1 in totality, DPC decreased in the upper single digits, and that was as we expected and as we guided to. And as Christophe said in his opening statement, as you talked about, how we see it throughout the year, expect that DPC to continue to ease through the year, but the magnitude of that favorability will diminish from Q1 to Q3. So going from this high single digits to lower single digits by Q3. And then to your last point about where we are versus prepandemic levels, commodity costs still remain as you've probably seen, very high versus pre-inflationary levels or pre-pandemic levels.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Manav Patnaik with Barclays.
Manav Patnaik:
Christophe, I just wanted to -- a bigger picture question on the components of the growth. So it sounds like from what you said, the new kind of 2% to 3% pricing seems like that realization should be on track. And then I think a lot of the volume growth was kind of your own initiatives this quarter. So I just wanted to confirm those 2 and then just get your take on the third piece, which is just the macro? Like what are the volumes in Europe and U.S.A. looking like without your kind of new business pipeline?
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Manav, good to hear you. A few things here. So maybe starting with the macro. I would say, kind of unchanged. There's a lot of puts and takes, obviously, in all the 40 end markets that we serve. But -- what we've seen in '23 is what we're seeing in '24 overall. So feel good about the general macro, at least with everything we know now.
We know it's an unpredictable world out there. But with everything we know, I feel good about where we are and where we're going. Then related to questions on pricing and volume. We feel increasingly good about our long-term pricing muscle, which you know is based always on what we call total value delivered, which are the savings we're generating for our customers, which usually are at least 2x the pricing that customers are giving us as well. So it's a very good win-win for both the customer and for us. So when we said 2 plus, now I'm saying for 2 to 3 and 4 for '24, I feel very good about delivering that. And on the volume side, well, as you've seen, so from our Q4 to Q1. So volume has moved up overall as a company. So that's a good indication, obviously, that our shift to offense that we started a year-ish ago, is really working well. Our new business is at record levels. We're investing, as I've shared just before with team as well. So behind our team, behind technology, behind capabilities, in order to sustain and accelerate that. So the volume is 1% to 2%. I feel really good about it as well, not every quarter is created equal. But generally, we should have a very good year in '24.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of John Roberts with Mizuho.
John Ezekiel Roberts:
A couple of quarters ago, you changed how you operate the health care business, now with the global surgical solutions being sold, are there still additional changes -- structural changes that you're going to make there?
Christophe Beck:
Not much. There were 4 points on my plan, John, and I shared with you, you saw each step that we made when I could, obviously, so do so. The first 1 was to really adjust the cost structure. We did that. The second was to create that bifurcation for infection prevention and surgical, which happened very well in the latter part of last year and now so the pending sale of our Surgical Solutions business to Medline, that step 3.
It's been a great transaction. So was a great partner. I feel really good with where we are and hope to close as quickly as we can on this one. And then there is the point 4. And the point 4 is to build our infection prevention business around a typical Ecolab style type of business, which means with a machine, with consumables service, with digital technology. And that's the instrument and endoscope reprocessing business that we have as part of infection prevention today that we want to keep building in the years to come because it's a winning market. It's a market where we have all the rights to win, typical model for Ecolab as well, and we know exactly how to run a business that way. So it's the right focus, it's the right team. We will keep adjusting, obviously, so how we evolve that business. We will be building that business over the years to come. There will be internal innovation. There might be some small acquisition as well as to it, nothing dramatic. I want to build a great health care business in the years to come. It's going to take some time. It's never easy, but we're going to get to the right place as we've always done with our previous new businesses in the company.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Josh Spector with UBS.
Joshua Spector:
I wanted to ask a couple of related things around institutional and specialty. So first, congrats, really strong performance in the quarter. I think we know the optics of pricing coming down. But if we say pricing in the segment was anywhere near the ballpark in the total company, it looks like volumes were up high single digits. And it's a pretty meaningful step-up on year-over-year and multiyear stack.
So the question is really, is that momentum that you think can be maintained? Is that the new wins flowing through and you could deliver call it, mid- to high single-digit volumes on institutional through this year? And the second part is more around margins and that typically is a pretty meaningful step-up in that second, first quarter to fourth quarter, call it, 400 to 500 basis points any reason why we shouldn't see that in that framework for this year.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Josh, especially for nice comments. So the team has done an unbelievable work in the last quarter, like in the many prior to that as well. So back to your question on institutional and specialty. This business has been now for quite a while on a great path. As I've shared with you, very openly, the pandemic has been game changing for this business, and I mean that in a very positive way.
Generally, the industry is doing quite well, people have enjoyed going back to hotels, restaurants and travel. People have been open to pay more. And it's an industry that, at the same time, have been able to reduce their cost because they had a hard time as well to get all the staffing that they were looking for. That meant better margin for them, better traffic for them as well. Overall, an industry that is in a much, much better place than it used to be as well. Well, we've taken that opportunity to also improve our business in a dramatic manner in North America, like everywhere else around the world and I absolutely love what this institutional team has done around the world because we've been able to align with exactly what the customers needed short term when they were reopening, midterm now where they need. So solutions in order to serve the increased traffic that they see. And most importantly, they need to reduce their labor cost. Well, that's exactly what we help them do with all our automation solution, it can be software, it can be training, it can be chemistry, it can be technology, you will see that at the National Restaurant Association Show as well in a month from now, very good stuff happening, which is driving all the growth of that business and the willingness for customers to pay more for those solutions because as always, they get more value than the price that they're paying ultimately so for us. So to your question on the long-term trajectory for institutional. I think that this 5 to 7 that we've talked about for the company should be the swim lane for institutional as well long term. And there will be times where they will be better than that and sometimes, they might be a little bit on the lower end. I think that this year, they're going to have a very good year and institutional. And if it continues that way, while it's going to line up with what I just said in terms of long-term trajectory. For the margin, they're in a very good place right now. They're expanding so quicker than we had expected as well with volume that's a bit lower than where it used to be, pre-pandemic. Well, that's basically demonstrating that the institutional P&L is much better than it used to be. As volume will recover, the margins will keep improving as well. And the P&L of that business will keep getting better. So that's a typical business that's going to be north of 20% pretty quickly. And we'll keep growing from there because it's in a great position to do so. All in all, a great business with a great future.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Chris Parkinson with Wolfe Research.
Christopher Parkinson:
On the global Pest Elimination business, you're offering a little bit more detail, and we've been hearing about the business for a while. But can you just offer a little bit more color on how you're thinking about that business strategically? Is this simply just, "hey, it's a great institutional service-driven pricing as business?" Is this more of a roll-up, should be emphasizing, I think, the old terminology was enterprise selling across your institutional clients? Just if you could offer a little bit more insights on how we should be modeling that and your thought process that would be very helpful?
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Chris. I've never personally worked in the Pest Elimination business, but I love that business. It's unbelievable the performance that it delivered in the best of times, like in the most difficult times as we've seen as well over the past few years. Steady, high-growth, high OI growth business, great margin and great future. And maybe a few points here. The first one, they've reached the threshold of $1 billion sales in '23. For me, that was the moment to separate that business and to have it report directly to Darrell Brown, our Chief Operating Officer because it's a business where we want to have all the focus, all the attention, all the investment that we can get as well behind it because it's high growth, high margin, high return.
So that what we've done internally from a management operating perspective, that led directly, obviously, to how we report as well that business and wanted to make sure that our segment reporting was perfectly aligned with the way we manage as well the company at the same time. And on a side note, it helps you as investors, obviously, to see in full transparency how this business is performing. And how it's operating as well at the same time. And you're going to see that it's maybe not the biggest, best elimination business on the planet, but it's the best performing one, highest growth, highest margin, which is a pretty cool place to be. Now on how we're going to keep driving that business for the future, it's going to be first and foremost, internal. So organic. We have a great team. And especially on the technology side, as you've seen during Investor Day, and we'll see so going forward as well. We're leveraging all the digital capabilities of our company. And keep in mind that we have in Industrial, for instance, 100,000 devices that are connected today. We have over 1,000 people in digital technology that have been working for years as well behind all the capability build that we have today. While we're going to leverage all that in our best elimination business to ultimately really transform that business into a digital business. To the question of M&A, can't make big comments on that, but we will keep doing some small bolt-ons as we've done in the past because we know how to do it. It works really well. So every time we will find good companies that we can add to our Pest Elimination franchise, we will do so. So a great story that keeps getting better and will get better in the years to come.
Operator:
Next question comes from the line of John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets.
John McNulty:
So just wanted a little bit more clarity on the Life Sciences business. I know it's struggled a bit, but it does seem like it's finally starting to pick up a little bit of momentum. Can you flesh that out for us in terms of what you're seeing and maybe how that pipeline is filling out as we kind of look to the back half of this year?
Christophe Beck:
Yes, it's a good story, John. We know that building new growth platforms is hard. It takes time, but we've done it many times. Pest elimination that we just discussed was a perfect example that we did sort of years back as well. Life Sciences is one of the newest one that we have. And if you look at just the results in Q1, the fact that Life Sciences is growing in a market that's currently down double digit is showing how performing that business is and how interested our customers are in what we can offer.
So I like where we are versus the market, and I know that, that market is going to recover. Is it mid this year, second half of this year, early next year from a market perspective, I don't know. I can't influence that, but I can influence how we serve our customers, how we generate new business, and I like a lot what I'm seeing here. Our innovation is best in the industry as well with a smaller one, the more agile one, the one that can truly answer immediate special needs for the biotech industry. I like a lot that position of the emerging leader that we're shaping here. So we came from a place where we were building now a place where we're seeing some positive signs of growth. We will keep investing in capabilities, in capacities because I firmly believe that this business is going to be a multibillion business down the road at margins that are going to be way north of our target of the 20%.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.
David Begleiter:
Christophe, back on the growth investments, in terms of the timing right now, was there anything you're seeing in the market vis-a-vis competitors, opportunities that enhance your decision? And exactly where are the investments being focused by business and by geography, where is the biggest portion of that going?
Christophe Beck:
Maybe so to your first question. So where, as I've shared with many of you, so we look at our businesses in 4 key categories. The fuel the growth, the protect the growth, transform the growth and fix. Those are the 4 big broad categories where we put our businesses and our markets and invest accordingly to make sure that we do a very smart capital allocation based on projected returns.
So they are the obvious candidates here. We talked about life science just before. We talked about pest elimination just before, we talked about institutional just before, and especially in Industrial, there are 2 new areas that are having outsized growth opportunities, and those are data centers and semiconductors. We have a good position in both stores and markets. As you know, those are 2 end markets that needs huge amount of energy/water and we help our customers ultimately to disconnect the growth related from AI from impact on natural resources, water and energy. And that's exactly what we do for the high-tech companies. It's to help them manage data centers that are, well, much more high-powered and much -- many more data centers, but at the same time reducing to 0, the impact on the environment and the same on the semiconductor side. We're also investing in digital technology, which I'm really proud of what the team has done over the past few years, and it keeps accelerating because we have so much data, so much knowledge so much capabilities ultimately to leverage the knowledge that Ecolab has in every industry in order to help every industry to reach the max potential in terms of performance, in terms of business results and in terms of environmental impact. So that's the way we think in terms of growth investments.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Pavel Molchanov with Raymond James.
Pavel Molchanov:
PFAS has been up in the headlines in the U.S. And I guess I would just ask you to comment generally on what the opportunity looks like for you in the U.S. as well as internationally?
Christophe Beck:
Pavel, we've been on that topic for a very long time, but we don't want to be part of the marketing fray or political fray of PFAS, we are by far, the leader in water globally. And we've been in the business of mastering water purity for a very long time, like almost 100 years, as you know. So PFAS purification is one of the many things that we do and can do in water.
So we are working very closely with our customers, but mostly B2B, very limited interest to go to municipal government, residential. This is not where we are as a company. We remain on commercial, we remain on B2B. And we're working with our customers to really understand what they need, where they want to go. The very good news is that we have the technology, we have the science, we have the expertise to solve it. We want to do it in a way, which is safe for the company, safe for the customers and that it can make a lot of money as well as for investors going forward. So more to come, I like where we are, and we'll see where we're going on this one.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies.
Laurence Alexander:
I have a question around sort of your growth investments and the targeted returns. I think Ecolab usually has a metric for almost everything that we can think about. So do you have a sense for what your historical kind of hit rate is for those types of investments? Or -- and I guess what I'm getting at is, as you move more into sort of the data marketing to customers, is the hit rate getting better or worse compared to your expectations for how kind of your investments in staff and training and marketing are playing out?
Christophe Beck:
Well, the short answer is that the hit rate is getting much better, especially when we think in terms of digital technology, data AI, we are uniquely positioned, serving 1 million customers in the world in 40 different industries in 172 countries, and connecting, as you've heard, thousands of devices and operations around the world.
Today, as we speak, we have capabilities that no one else has and data that no one else has as well at the same time. So we know that investing in digital technology is an almost 100% hit rate. When you think in terms of margins, well, there is no raw material into our digital technology. So our margins are way higher as well there. So it's kind of a combination of large potential, unique capabilities that we have and certain high-margin investing behind digital and AI for us is a no-brainer. And we've done it for 30 years, and we've accelerated the last 5, 6 years quite remarkably. So this one, it's kind of 100% hit rate. For all the other ones, because like I've said before, we make absolutely sure that our SG&A productivity, underlying productivity improves continuously. And it does, and it's important that it continues to do so. But in some moments, like now, I want to accelerate our investments, as mentioned. So in our frontline buyer power, at the same time, beyond the digital investments as well in our capabilities as well to support our front line, so it's going to drive our ratio of SG&A, so slightly higher for a while. But when I think about the second half and 2025, I think it's going to normalize pretty nicely and underlying productivity is going to remain strong.
Operator:
Next question is from the line of Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.
Jeffrey Zekauskas:
I think the overall volume growth of the company was 2% and I think that what you said was that in the industrial business, if you excluded paper, volumes increased. So I take it that industrial volumes were down year-over-year. Is that right? And in the institutional business, where volumes up, I don't know, 5 or 6.
Christophe Beck:
I guess that's the end of your question, Jeff.
Jeffrey Zekauskas:
Is the answer to my question.
Christophe Beck:
Very good. I will be too mature. I was not missing something, obviously here. So a lot on volume. You're right. So we're still 2% for the company. That's the way we report it. So that's not a surprise. That's why I'm saying the 1% to 2%. So for the year, I feel really good in getting that, again, that every quarter is created the same. We have some year-on-year comparison, we need to manage with. But the 1% to 2% feel good, and I'm talking '24 year. And individually here, institutional you're right. It's directionally, it's kind of half price, hub volume, doing really well, as I've shared as well, so previously as well in some of the question.
And in Industrial, overall volumes were flat-ish for the first quarter all in, and they were positive ex-paper. I don't want to correct too much, Jeff, as well. Within Industrial, when I think about the various businesses, I feel really good with where we are because if I go a little bit more under the hood. Well, you have heavy water, light water are kind of in the low mid single total growth here, not just volume. Downstream is high mid-single, so in a very good place as well. And then we had mining that's a little bit negative because comparing against a crazy quarter in Q1 last year, but underlying doing really well, and then you have paper softness. So generally, industrial is moving in the right direction in a world where manufacturing demand is not exactly accelerating. So I like where we are and even more where we're going out.
Operator:
Next question is from the line of Steve Byrne with Bank of America.
Steve Byrne:
Kind of a follow-up on the pest control business. Do you have an estimate of what fraction of your customers within industrial and institutional are customers within pest control? And what could that fraction get to, is that the primary driver for that business? Or would you say expanding the platform and getting into other products like fumigation and so forth is the growth driver?
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Steve. The pest business has grown over the last many years almost entirely through what we call Circle the Customer, Circle the Globe, which is penetration of customers that the company has even if pest elimination doesn't have. As pest elimination grew over the last few years, obviously, they got their new customers as well at the same time, which are feeding as well the opportunity for the other non-Pest Elimination businesses. But if I look at the opportunity of pest elimination within our customer base, well it's worth billions out there. So sky is the limit. That's why this business is something that I like so much.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research.
Kevin McCarthy:
Yes. Perhaps a few housekeeping questions on your surgical divestiture. Would you comment on the level of EBITDA attached to that business? I'm not sure what the tax basis might be, but perhaps you could also comment on the expected cash proceeds and the deployment of those proceeds when the deal closes in the back half of the year?
Christophe Beck:
Okay. Thank you. I'm going to pass that question to Scott. But before I get there, so you've heard in my open basically how we look at it. So we're not disclosing too much detailed business information. So underneath what we publish. That's the case, obviously, for a business within health care. So the $15 million headwind per quarter once we close is kind of a good direction, but more to that, Scott.
Scott Kirkland:
Yes, Kevin, I'll talk on the proceeds and gain but very high level. At this point, I don't want to get ahead of ourselves. We need to close the transaction first, which we feel very good in. And the proceeds themselves, we're going to remain committed to our capital allocation priorities, which is focused on investing in the business. And from a tax perspective gain, yes, we do expect to realize a very attractive gain on the sale but we'll disclose that amount once the deal closes and once the accounting is finalized. But -- and that gain will be in special charges just from a housekeeping perspective, and that's not included in the $0.15 estimate we had on the full year special charges.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Patrick Cunningham with Citibank.
Patrick Cunningham:
So Europe has been a drag on growth for several quarters. Can you give us your latest thoughts on the region and maybe how volumes trended in the quarter? And institutional standout as particularly strong there. Is that mostly market outperformance? Or is food traffic starting to improve?
Christophe Beck:
So 2 questions in here. So on Europe, I like a lot what this business has done. It just takes a big picture, 10 years ago, it's a market where we used to make no money. And today, it's a business that's close to the average of the company today. So has done a remarkable work, has grown very nicely last year, is growing as well in the first quarter in a very difficult environment, and margins have kept expanding, very significantly in Europe as well at the same time.
So overall, Europe performing very well in a difficult environment. Now to your question on institutional and the food traffic, it's mostly share gains within our customers and customers we don't have. Food traffic is not up versus 2019 right now and especially the traffic in the dining room so people sitting in a restaurant, not just taking a drive-through or ordering digitally as well. While this traffic is even further down obviously. So if I look at where we are in terms of growth, where we are in terms of margin in that business, well, it makes the performance of that business even better in a market that hasn't fully recovered yet because it's all driven by market share.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Andy Wittmann with Baird.
Andrew J. Wittmann:
Christophe earlier in the Q&A, you were talking about how you're investing across 3 growth vectors, kind of more people to help serve our customers, digital and AI. And then you talked about investing to serve more as one Ecolab. So there's been various initiatives to bring the whole solution to customers over time. So I guess I'd like to understand a little bit more about what you're doing here that's different from the past to try to circle that customer even better to use your terminology, I guess?
Christophe Beck:
Yes. Thank you, Andy. It's been a long journey, and it's going to be a continued long journey. At the end of the day, we call it our one Ecolab growth program. It's to provide our customers with a transparent view of all the businesses that are serving them and all the opportunities that they have, if they were to work even more with them.
At the end of the day, we want to help them drive the performance of all the units at the performance level of the best-performing unit. We know, which one that is. We know how to get there. We know how to help them get there. We need data transparency. We're making very good progress on that, and we will keep investing on that. And the second part is making sure that our teams also have real-time data at their fingertips on their phone, knowing what's the potential that this specific unit is having versus the best-performing unit of that customer and how to get there. What are the best practices that I can use that I'm not familiar with. They've been probably used in another country, maybe in another business as well. I have all that information on my phone, and I can deliver that value as well so for the customer. And last but not least, needs to make sure that our back office, where we've made huge progress with SAP over the last 10 years. We have 80% plus of our business on SAP so today is perfectly aligned with that proposition behind customers. So there is no revolution here. It's pure evolution. I'm taking the advantage of moving even faster in order to capture even more share in order to grow faster and get higher margin at the same time.
Operator:
Next question is from the line of Mike Harrison with Seaport Research.
Michael Harrison:
I was wondering if we could dig in a little bit more on the mining business. You mentioned that it was weaker year-on-year against a tough comp, but I'm just curious if you can give a little more color on what's going on and kind of how that's expected to trend the rest of the year? And then where are we in the process of shifting that mining business toward higher-value segments of the market? And I know you did an acquisition back in November, how does that acquisition help you further move along in that shift toward higher-value segments and fertilizers?
Christophe Beck:
Mike, 10 years ago, I was not exactly in love with our mining business because it was focused on segments of the past, coal, primary metals, all those things where the world is not exactly going towards to longer term. And we made the conscious decision back then to shift everything towards much less cyclical, much more growth focus and much higher margin as well at the same time. And we've made a total transformation of that business over the last 10 years and what was 80-20 yesterday is closer to 20-80 today, which is why I like where we are and even more where we're going with mining.
When you think about mining, well, think about green transformation, think about copper, think about lithium. That's where we spend a lot of time. So it's precious metals as well at the same time and the mining industry has a lot to do with water to say the least because most of the time, there's not enough water and the water they produce is not exactly great for the environment. We can help on both ends, we use and recycle water for ultimately a much better mining operation with a much lower environmental impact. So we've really driven that transformation. That takes time. Changing a portfolio within a business is something that takes years to get to the right place. And we've reached that place and the acquisition we did last year, as you just mentioned, well, it is helping towards that because it's towards the new mining as we call it as well. So at the end of the day, right portfolio, much less cyclical, almost no cyclicality and margin much better. We had that year-on-year comparisons with the first quarter of '23 was up 42% last year. So it's just a year-on-year comparison. The next quarters to come for the most part, is going to be a very good story. So if I didn't like mining so much 10 years ago, I like mining a lot today.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.
Vincent Andrews:
Christophe, if I could go back to the investment spending, I'd love just to get your thought process on how you sort of came up with the amount to spend. And I guess I'm just asking, did you set a bar or hurdle somewhere. Are you trying to achieve a certain outcome either in terms of your near-term earnings or your medium-term volume growth? And I guess, why wasn't the number higher or lower? What things did you say no to versus what things that you absolutely have to do?
Christophe Beck:
Yes, Vincent, the guiding principle is to invest in wise that help us raise the probability of delivering our targets of the 5 to 7 the 20% OI margin, as you know, and 12% to 15% EPS growth as well at the same time for the long run. This is my job. This is our promise. This is what we're working all together towards to. So that's the way we're looking at those investments. It's not meant in a short-term way at all. .
It's all about delivering our long-term commitment. So there's not a threshold, well there's a threshold of making intelligent moves, and trying to avoid dumb moves at least willingly. That's probably the only one we have there, and in some places, when we think about global high tech, in data centers, in semiconductors saying, "Well, let's go there as fast and as deep as we can. We have a leadership position. It's a huge market that keeps getting bigger as well out there." I'm not putting a threshold here. It's get it done as fast and as well as you can. But at the end of the day, it's making sure that we get the 5 to 7, the 12 to 15 EPS and a 20% OI margin, as we've talked about in the next few years. This is my guidepost and my promise to you.
Operator:
Mr. Hedberg, there are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the floor back over to you for closing comments.
Andy Hedberg:
Thank you. That wraps up our first quarter conference call. This conference call and the associated discussion slides will be available for replay on our website. Thank you for your time and participation, and hope everyone has a great rest of your day.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.
Operator:
Greetings, and welcome to the Ecolab Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Release Conference Call. This time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. The question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder this conference is being recorded. At this time, it is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Andy Hedberg, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you, Mr. Hedberg. You may now begin.
Andy Hedberg:
Thank you, and hello everyone, and welcome to Ecolab's fourth quarter conference call. With me today are Christophe Beck, Ecolab's Chairman and CEO; and Scott Kirkland, our CFO. A discussion of our results, along with our earnings release and the slides referencing the quarter results are available on Ecolab’s website at ecolab.com/investor. Please take a moment to read the cautionary statements in these materials, which state that this teleconference and the associated supplemental materials estimates of future performance. These are forward-looking statements, and the actual results could differ materially from those projected. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are described under the Risk Factors section in our most recent Form 10-K and our posted materials. We also refer you to the supplemental diluted earnings per share information in the release. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Christophe Beck for his comments.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you so much, Andy, and welcome to everyone on the call. The very strong performance in the fourth quarter capped off a phenomenal year for our company. With the fourth quarter, organic sales growth of 6% and adjusted earnings per share up 22%. I'm so proud of this team, because this strong performance underscores the collective hard work and dedication of our entire Ecolab team, and reflects our sustained focus over the last few years on driving long-term growth the right way. Despite the unpredictability of macroeconomic conditions, our team drove further value-based pricing while maintaining our strong business momentum. Volumes in the fourth quarter continued to improve with the positive growth, reflecting new business wins that more than offset soft macro demand. Our success is anchored in the value we create for customers by improving their operating performance while also reducing the water and energy consumption. In 2024, our focus remains on continuing to fuel our strong and consistent long-term double-digit earnings per share growth. The highlights for the fourth quarter was the continued and rapid expansion of our gross margin, which increased by 330 basis points and our organic operating income margin, which increased 200 basis points to 16%. This growth was led by a 390 basis point increase in the Institutional & Specialty segment margin, as we continue to quickly narrow the gap to this segment's historical 21% operating income margin. The Institutional & Specialty team continues to execute well, driving further value pricing and volume growth that accelerated to the mid single-digit range, reflecting the strong new business wins. The Industrial segment operating income margin increased 220 basis points with notable expansion in each of our Water, Food & Beverage and Paper businesses. And other segment's operating income margin was up 160 basis points driven by strong Pest Elimination performance once again. As expected the Healthcare and Life Sciences segment operating income margin eased versus last year. Healthcare's profitability continued to improve, which is good, reflecting the benefits of separating our North America operations into two focused businesses as mentioned infection prevention and surgical. Healthcare's income growth was more than offset by comparison to the very strong performance of Life Sciences last year in continued market pressures. Most importantly, operating income dollars for this segment have grown, sequentially throughout 2023 from the actions we have taken to improve performance, and we expect this growth to continue over the course of 2024. From a sales perspective, our Life Sciences business drove slightly positive growth in 2023, despite the market being down double-digits. And while we continue to expect this market to remain soft for the next few quarters, our ongoing investments in new capabilities and new capacity enabling us to gain market share in this very attractive long-term high-growth and high-margin market. Our overall performance highlights the strength of the Ecolab model, as we continue to execute on pricing and driving new business all backed by delivering leading customer value. Additionally, we've seen some benefits from moderately lower delivered product costs. This costs are still up 35% compared to 2019 levels, but declined by mid-single digits relative to last year's fourth quarter a bit more than we had anticipated. We continue to take a prudent stance on the trajectory of delivered product costs. Therefore, our outlook for 2024 assumes that, these costs will remain favorable in the first half of the year, and stable in the second half of the year. Although, we are very pleased with the margin expansion, we have delivered so far. Our focus remains on fully recapturing our historical 44% gross margin to reach our 20% OI margin target. Our value-based pricing model and delivered product costs that are now coming down, a further strengthened our conviction in achieving this target over the next few years. Our underlying productivity also remains strong, as we continue to leverage our leading digital capabilities. As expected SG&A expenses, remained relatively stable compared to the third quarter. And consistent with previous years, we anticipate a few percentage point sequential increase in SG&A dollars in Q1, but expect to drive further improvements in our SG&A ratio as the year progresses. We expect 2024 to be another strong year for Ecolab, building on our long-term 12% to 15% earnings growth trajectory that is amplified by shorter-term benefits from lower delivered product costs. For the year, we expect adjusted earnings per share to grow in the 17% to 25% range, which assumes soft, but stable microeconomic demand and lower delivered product costs in the first half of the year, as global inflation eases. With this, we expect to maintain our business momentum as we drive further pricing, volume growth, and continued robust operating income margin expansion. Looking at the first quarter, the benefit from lower delivered product costs is expected to peak with costs down high single digits in the quarter, resulting in adjusted earnings per share increasing 44% to 56% versus last year. Beyond the first quarter, quarterly adjusted diluted earnings per share growth is expected to progressively normalize towards the upper end of Ecolab's long-term 12% to 15% target, as favorability from lower delivered product costs eases. As always, we will also remain good stewards of capital by continuing to invest in the business, increasing our dividend, and returning cash to shareholders. Most importantly, with the best team science and capabilities in the industry, we will continue to grow our share of the stable and high-quality $152 billion market we serve. I believe Ecolab's long-term parameters are stronger than ever and I'm confident in our outlook for continued strong performance, as we work to deliver superior shareholder returns. So thank you for your continued support and investment in Ecolab. I look forward to your questions.
Andy Hedberg:
Thanks, Christophe. That concludes our formal remarks. Operator, would you please begin the question-and-answer period?
Operator:
Thank you. We'll now be conducting a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. And our first question is from Tim Mulrooney with William Blair. Please proceed with your question.
Tim Mulrooney:
Hey, Christophe. Good afternoon.
Christophe Beck:
Good afternoon, Tim.
Tim Mulrooney:
If I'm recalling correctly, you guys talked about Europe, as kind of being a drag on growth in 2023. Can you talk about how volumes trended in Europe in the fourth quarter? And what volumes for the business overall, look like if you were to exclude Europe? Thank you.
Christophe Beck:
Love that question, Tim. Thank you. Well, two parts of your question obviously here. So let me give you a little bit a picture of the broader company and then specifically to Europe, which had a lot of good stuff to offer as well at the same time. So as the world is slowing or has been slowing over the past few quarters, especially outside the US, especially in Europe, as you mentioned as well. Well, I'm really glad that we shifted to offense as we shared with you a few quarters back because it's really working. As you've seen so in the fourth quarter our volume growth went up one percentage point in Q4. And to your question, if you exclude Europe, our volume growth would be 3% up so quite a bit. So now our job is absolutely to maintain that choosing speed in 2024. As we rebuild margins obviously, the right way, which means in Ecolab speak in a way that benefits customers by reducing the total operating cost. But to your point on Europe, specifically. Yes, it's been a drag on growth in overall company plus 1% excluding Euro plus 3%. Europe has had an exceptional year in 2023. We reached almost 14% operating income margin, which was our objective when we started the whole transformation in Europe. So good evolution in a very difficult market, where we prioritized really making sure we get the right margins, the right businesses, the right customers investing in the right places. So slight volume decline, very good pricing and really focused on the right businesses with the right productivity. So good year in Europe, difficult from a volume perspective but good for the overall company in Q4 and especially so the 3% ex Europe is a very good news for us.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Ashish Sabadra with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
Ashish Sabadra:
Thanks for taking my question. Just as we think about fiscal year 2024, how should we think about the volume growth as well as pricing normalizing in 2024? And congrats on the solid quarter. Thanks.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Ashish. Good question as well. So in that environment as described before, so with Tim, I really expect that to stay on our long-term average Ecolab growth trajectory. With what I would say is a 2% plus pricing as I've shared with you as well and positive volume growth as we've had in the fourth quarter as well. But bottom line our long-term growth target remain unchanged. Even in difficult environments it's going to be a little bit lower than that range for 2024 where we prioritize obviously getting the right value pricing, while keeping driving growth as we did in Q4 and that will help us deliver a very good year in 2024.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Seth Weber with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question.
Seth Weber:
Hi guys, good morning. Maybe just if I could just clarify Christophe that last comment. Are you is pricing 2% in 2024? Is that what you said? And then my bigger question is I was trying to disaggregate the five points of pricing that you got in the fourth quarter how much of that is new versus carryover, which I guess is ultimately kind of the same question, but I just want to make sure I understood your answer to the prior question about pricing for 2024?
Christophe Beck:
Yes, a few elements to unpack here. So, the 5% in Q4 was all new pricing realized in 2023, there was no carryover anymore from the previous years. In the fourth quarter, which was a remarkable accomplishment. So, the 5% in an environment with delivered product costs. So, tends to ease, Obviously, the fact that we can still get incremental pricing from our customers because we deliver even more value to them in terms of total operating cost reduction, for me it's a very good sign. And as I've shared with you I don't know exactly where pricing is going to end up on a longer term basis. We used to be one plus pre-inflationary cycle if I may say. And what I've shared with you is to say I'm fairly confident that we will be north of 2% as I called it so the two-plus for the future. We'll see where we end up. I feel good about the two-plus. That's going to be true for 2024, while we keep volume growing as well at the same time. So, let's see where we will end up.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Josh Spector with UBS. Please proceed with your question.
Josh Spector:
Yes, hi. Good afternoon. So, I wanted to ask about the cadence of earnings through the year. So, first congrats on a strong guide for the first quarter. But I guess if you look at the typical run rate, you're up about 30% -- $0.30 in the second order, another $0.30 in the second half. I guess if we run that math through, we're closer to something in $7 in EPS for this year versus your guide in the low $6s. So, just curious if you can kind of run through. Are there things through the year that add to costs or things we should be aware of that would deter you from that path? Or any comments you have around that? Thanks.
Scott Kirkland:
Hey, Josh this is Scott. I'll cover this one. Thanks for the question. Yes, as Christophe said in his opening, we're expecting this a bigger benefit of DPC in the first half and bigger in the first quarter. But if you look at sort of separating out DPC, would expect throughout the year that underlying EPS delivery to be at the high end of our long-term targeted range. So, it's really this expected benefit in the first quarter, a little bit in the second quarter as well, but really looking at DPC in the second half being pretty stable.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
John McNulty:
Yes, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. So, on the delivered product costs, I guess, are you expecting to see either raw materials or some other part of those costs pushing noticeably higher as we go through the year? Or is there some kind of a I don't know speed bump, or I guess reverse speed bump some best fit that you're seeing in 1Q? Because I guess I don't understand why you would necessarily be seeing delivered product costs pushing higher throughout the year?
Christophe Beck:
So we haven't said higher. What we said is that we reached a peak mid of last year so 2023 and it kept easing. So, in the third quarter, in the fourth quarter, and will be the case as well in the first quarter of 2024. What we're saying is that it's going to keep easing in the second quarter until the second half where we expect it now to be rather stable versus last year. We know and you know how hard it is to predict, obviously, sort of delivered product cost or inflation, as we've seen this morning as well so was the inflationary print. It was hard to predict when it went up, obviously, how much and how quickly, it's hard to predict how much and how fast it's going to go down. So for now with what we see, with what we know keeping in mind that we buy 10,000 products in our portfolio. So it's very diverse, which is a good thing in a way as well. Some will go up, some will go down. But generally, so it's easing for the first half stable in the second half, and we will see what truly happens. But it's important to keep in mind what Scott just said before, we keep our eyes laser-focused on really driving this 12% to 15% earnings per share growth with everything we can control and really to get as close to the 15% as we can and DPC comes on top of it, which means the bump in the first half and in the second half so to be closer to the upper end of that range. How do we do that? Well, it's the old fashioned way that we've been practicing for a long time now with new business, with value pricing with productivity, and with innovation. That's the way we think about it, and that we hope you will see that way too.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.
Jeff Zekauskas :
Thanks very much. It's a two-part question. Have volumes in the institutional business accelerated? And if so why? Or is it just that the comparisons are easier year-over-year in the fourth quarter than they were in the third? And secondly in terms of pricing, how will your price initiatives work? Are you already raising prices in the first quarter here at the beginning of the year? Or will they come later? Will they sort of make their way smoothly quarter-by-quarter through the year? Or will things bump up, I don't know in May or June? That's the base case.
Christophe Beck:
So hi, Jeff, good to hear you. So, two questions, obviously, here for the price of one. So the volume in Institutional is clearly up. It's not a year-on-year comparison question, especially when the market is down, as well at the same time so really showing that this business Institutional is in a great shape, with great momentum driving volume, driving share, getting price, driving margin really like where Institutional is heading. So the short answer is, yes, volume in Institutional keep accelerating. The second part of your question on pricing, there are the exceptional times like in the past few years and there are the more normal times. I would say like now, which basically the discussions with customers for the most part, they're not all created equal obviously are happening in the fourth and the first quarter of the year, so fourth quarter and as we speak now. So it's usually something that's evolving progressively during the year with no big bumps. It's something, which is pretty organic keeping in mind that the pricing is always based on the value we create for customers, which is why we were able to deliver $3 billion in the last few years and kept it and keep building it. It's because ultimately for customers it's a good deal. The net-net in the ,operations while it's positive including our pricing as well at the same time. So from a timing perspective Jeff happening in Q4, Q1 and it's being delivered in the quarters during the year.
Operator:
Next question is from the line of Manav Patnaik with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.
Manav Patnaik:
Thank you. Christophe, it looks like a lot of things are aligning well here starting the year and you've touched a lot of them. I just wanted to touch base on how you thought about your portfolio. There have been a few pieces like Healthcare and even Paper that have been dragged to top line growth. And just curious on how you think about your portfolio composition today and if anything might be in the works there?
Christophe Beck:
Yeah, hi, Manav. So it's a little bit like with our kids, they're not always doing great at the same time that's a bit the same with our businesses. It doesn't mean that we love them less. But if we look at all our businesses and markets out there over 90% of them had double-digit operating income growth, so a pretty remarkable bias towards good performance for all our businesses. And so I like the overall portfolio that we have. We're also approaching investments and resources as a company. That's been true for many years in four different buckets. The one that we want to fuel those are the ones with the highest growth potential, the ones with the highest margin potential as well, you have the one that we want to protect. Those are the ones that are doing well, no big change. You have the ones that we need to transform. And those are the ones that, obviously, have potential but are not exactly there yet. And then you have the ones that you need to fix. Healthcare being one of the perfect example of that. Paper would either be on the transform side, because it's north of 16% margin that we have in that business not great volume growth right now but very good margin and we'll end up in a good place as well as we keep transforming that business. So that's the way we think about it. We're not investing so everyone the same way. It's really by category along the four that I just mentioned as well. So overall I like the portfolio we have, but we always, kind of, critical for every business, every market to make sure that we have the best owner's mindset and making sure that we do what's right for shareholders.
Operator:
Our next question is coming from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.
David Begleiter:
Thank you. Christophe, again just on the delivered product costs, could you unpack the dynamics as to the high single digit increase in Q1? Is that primarily a function of the caustic price decrease last year we saw for I think every month of the year? And then going forward, is your flattening out a function of just caustic being up as the year progresses? Thank you.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, David. I'm looking at Scott and he'd love to answer that question. Scott, happy to.
Scott Kirkland:
Yeah, happy to David. Thank you. Yeah, as Christophe referenced earlier, our DPC is still up and again just to clarify 35% versus our pre-inflationary period. And as you referenced we -- it peaked in the middle of last year, right? And then we started to see some modest benefit in Q3 some additional single-digit benefit in Q4 and are expecting then that benefit really to peak in Q1 up high single digits. So as we said, and then some modest benefit likely in Q2, as then we see costs stabilizing for the second half. And with the 10,000 raw materials very difficult to sort of isolate individual buckets. Obviously, you have some raw materials like caustic, where we've seen some easing, but you've also seen other products raw materials like propylene or resins, where we've seen those costs going up as well. And so with the big basket of materials hard to isolate any one of those.
Christophe Beck:
But what's important to keep in mind here is really where we focus our attention. It's really driving the business in order to get on the upper end of this 12% to 15% earnings growth. And what's happening on the DPC front, we see that all incremental benefit which is exactly what we've shared for Q1 in pretty detailed terms as well. We'll get some more in Q2. And we expect flat from DPC tailwind perspective in the second half. But let's see what truly happens. Your best guess will be my guess too.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Pavel Molchanov with Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.
Pavel Molchanov:
Thanks for taking the question. In this uncertain macro environment, including the inflationary pressures you alluded to earlier. Can you talk about what you're seeing on the M&A front, as far as valuations and any particular geographies that perhaps look more enticing than others?
Christophe Beck:
Good question, but a difficult one to answer for me, obviously, Pavel as you know. But the way, I always answer that question is, basically what you've seen in the past from Ecolab is what you're going to see in the future. We have an extremely strong balance sheet, now our leverage levels are closer to our longer-term average of these two times, as well. So we're in a very good position to go after opportunities that we believe are strategically relevant for us. And obviously, that we can buy at the right price, as we've done very successfully so in the past. So yes, the market becomes even more interesting right now which is good. We have a rich pipeline as we've always had and we will keep focusing on our three key priorities, but as I've always shared first is water, second is Life Science, third, is digital and AI technology mostly focused on North America and in Europe.
Operator:
Next question is coming from the line of John Roberts with Mizuho. Please proceed with your question.
John Roberts:
Thank you, and congrats on making the Just 100 list again. In Healthcare, some companies have been talking about de-stocking continuing. Are you seeing de-stocking in Healthcare? And are you seeing equal benefits between your surgical and infection prevention business now that you've got the separation?
Christophe Beck:
Hey, John, thank you for your comment on the Just list. We're never going after awards obviously, but we're always honored and humbled when we get those awards, that's basically describing that the way we run our business the right way as much as we can obviously. So the question on Healthcare. I've committed quite a while ago so to fix that business with the team. I like the progress that we're making. We went through a few phases, as I shared very openly with you and we'll keep doing so in the future. So we worked on the cost structure early on then we worked on the bifurcation of the two surgical and infection prevention businesses by leveraging as well the critical mass of institutional, we early on that journey because that happened obviously in the fall of last year. Healthcare is growing overall, which is something I like because that's early signs of success. Our margins are increasing quite significantly from a low level as we know but that's the second good sign as well of progress and the teams working really well with the institutional team. So I think that we found the right model for now. Again, the work is not finished. We've committed to get to double-digit type of margin in that business. And we will get there a few more phases. I expect it as well to happen and I will keep you posted on our plans and our progress as transparently as I can.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.
Laurence Alexander:
Good afternoon. Could you give a bit more granularity on the trends you're seeing in Asia, particularly the strong volumes in China? Can you break out where you're seeing that? And are you seeing sequential acceleration? Or is it just a comp issue?
Christophe Beck:
We're in a fairly good place actually in Asia, especially China. For us we separate our Asia Pacific, and where we have a few markets in China, which is one of the mega markets. As you maybe remember, North America, Western Europe and Greater China to be our three mega markets, where we focus 80% of our retention, where 80% of the opportunity lies as well. And I like quite a bit how we're working in China, not an easy environment as we all know, but growth has been good in China, especially in Institutional. We have a great team, a great business and we have very good margins as well in China. That was not the case 10 years ago but that's clearly the case today. So we have a very good business, a great team, very well positioned with what customers in China wants, when we think food safety, infection prevention and water that's exactly what they're looking for as well. So pleased with the evolution of China, and that's true with the rest of Asia Pacific as well but every country is a bit in a different place but in aggregate a pretty good story.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Shlomo Rosenbaum with Stifel. Please proceed with your question.
Shlomo Rosenbaum:
Hi. Thank you very much. Christophe, you made tremendous strides in the margin over the last little bit and the pricing has been very successful and it looks like volumes have turned positive. So there's a lot of positivity there. I was wondering if you could bridge us from where you are today to where -- you mentioned getting to that 20% margins. And can you walk us through that bridge, how much would be pricing? How much would you think about in volumes? Is there a certain cadence that we should be thinking about over the next several years? Just give us your thoughts on how investors should be thinking about it how you're thinking about it?
Christophe Beck:
I'll give it to Scott first and then I'll make a few comments.
Scott Kirkland:
Yes, thanks Shlomo. Great question. Yes, as we've talked about -- and we talked about at Investor Day, really very focused on getting to that 20% OI margin and I think we have a very clear path over the next few years. And it's largely by getting back to those 2019, sort of, pre-pandemic gross margins right, which are still down relative to 2019. If you look at overall OI margin, so we finished the year at 14%, so about six points from that 20% OI margin. And by recovering those 2019 gross margins, which is really split pretty evenly between the value-based pricing, what we do for our customers, driving that value-based pricing, and then the other half of that being volume and mix sort of combined there, okay? As we showed during 2023, our OI margins were up 140 basis points. And we're expecting about another 200 basis points in 2024. So, we think that's great evidence for what we can do and that path to get to that 20% OI margin. And then additionally in there aside from the gross margin, we'll expect to continue to deliver some SG&A leverage at least equal to what we've done historically.
Christophe Beck:
So, bottom-line, Shlomo, with all the elements that Scott just mentioned, I feel even better with what I said and shared with you at the Investor Day in 2023 of saying we will get to this 20% OI margin so within the next few years and it's not going to take us five years to get there. So, our confidence level has just risen with the delivery of the last three quarters.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Steve Byrne with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.
Rob Hoffman:
Hi, Rob Hoffman on for Steve Byrne. And my question was if you guys could share any update on the water for climate and science certified initiatives?
Christophe Beck:
Yes, those are two platform innovations as we call them Ecolab Science Certified. So, it's keeping -- progressing very nicely with a few big customers as well jumping on that journey, McDonald's being the latest big one obviously out there. So, we like how Ecolab Science Certified is not only providing benefits to our customers by protecting their guests by providing a safe and clean and welcoming environment, but also safe foods at the right cost with the total operating cost manage as well as we can. So, Ecolab Science Certified is an overall promise by our customers, which encompasses all our services as well. So, it's a penetration play which is good for us, driving good results for our customers. Ecolab Water for Climate is a bit the same in a very different set up, obviously, because it's helping our customers get to their ambition of the net zero. Some customers are much further down the road and some are very early on that journey. So, to give you some highlights without going too much in detail since we don't share our customers' details publicly. We have a dozen of flagship customers, as we call them, who have committed to getting to net zero. One has been very public that's Microsoft, and progressing very well on that journey as well. It's really helping them get to net zero, but in a way that makes financial sense for them and for us by driving a lot of innovation and services in their own operations, in order to deliver their objective. So, two growth platforms, driving penetration, improving impact from our customers, which helps us ultimately drive growth and value pricing.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners. Please proceed with your question.
Kevin McCarthy:
Yes. Thank you and good afternoon. Christophe, back at your Investor Day in September last fall, I think it was. You talked a little bit about cross-selling initiatives. And I was wondering if you could provide an update on those efforts. In other words, if I look at the volume improvement from the first half of 2023 to the back half basically going negative to positive. Do you think that those cross-selling efforts have borne fruit? Or is that on the come in 2024?
Christophe Beck:
There's no doubt that it's proving right. It's been true for a very long time by the way. I'd like just to indicate what we've built with pest elimination, for instance, which is 90% circle the globe type of business, which is ultimately all our businesses from Institutional, Healthcare and Industrial bringing our team from pest elimination in order to offer the world-class service to all those different segments, while we've managed to build $1 billion business with great margins, and highest returns by doing so. So that's something that we have proven for a very long time in our company. It's also keeping in mind that half of the $152 billion market we have out there well is an opportunity of penetration. Ultimately, customers we already have that should be or could be buying everything from what Ecolab does. And the two main drivers for it is what I just shared before with Ecolab Science Certified and Ecolab Water for Climate that ultimately drives bigger gains for our customers by driving the overall end-to-end proposition that we have in the company. And last point, I'll make is that, we have further focused as well our execution work towards out top 35 customers in the company to make absolutely sure that we were not only providing them with all the resources of the company, but that we could capture as well as much of the opportunity that those customers can offer to us, which is a number that counts in the billions.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Patrick Cunningham with Citi. Please proceed with your question.
Patrick Cunningham :
Hi. Good afternoon. I have kind of a specific follow-up on the last question. So you've had the solid share gains in institutional with volumes up maybe mid single digits where end markets are stable to slightly down, how much of this was a share of wallet versus new customers? And are there any sort of representatives products or technologies, which have driven a lot of the share gain this year? And then how should we think about new business wins for institutional and specialty into 2024?
Christophe Beck:
So a few different questions here, Patrick, so all related to the same topic obviously. So, new business generation is our number one focus in the company where sales organization says that heart our mantra in the company for the 47,000 people is we're all in sales just to describe how we think about it as well. So it's really a teamwork. And new business generation, our pipelines are at record levels right now really like how much we have gained. Obviously we now we need to install all that in the next few months, next few quarters. That's always true and it's different by businesses. It goes faster in Institutional, which is why you see as well a very good growth in Institutional. They have a great new business generation. They can install pretty quickly as well, good for the customers, good for us and leading to great results because margins are so good, obviously, in that business. So to your question on how much is cross-selling versus totally new. The best way to think about it in our company is generally two-third is cross-selling, which is really selling to customers that other businesses already have and one-third is brand new and that's an average number. It's not obviously always the same across businesses and geographies, but that's a good way to think about it and to keep in mind that we are primarily focused on cross-selling, which is the best way and easiest way to sell and the cheapest way driving the highest margins.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Mike Harrison with Seaport Research Partners. Please proceed with your question.
Mike Harrison:
Hi. Good afternoon. I wanted to ask another question around the Institutional business, but I wanted to dig in more on the specialty side of that business. You just had within specialty probably the best year of growth in a decade or more. Can you talk about what is driving the improvement on both the QSR and the food retail side? And then you also -- it also looks like you acquired this Chemlink business back in May. Can you talk about what Chemlink is bringing into the portfolio within that specialty business?
Christophe Beck:
Okay. So a few questions in there. So Mike you're right, the specialty, which is QSR as a quick serve restaurants and food retail had a great year in 2023. It's been true for pretty long time by the way. So great businesses based in the same place in North Carolina as you probably know as well the -- the key reasons why those businesses are going so well. On one hand, especially QSR is an industry that's doing well at all times especially in more difficult times because people have a tendency to trade down. And when they move from full service restaurants to quick serve, obviously, we can capture them in a good way at high margin as well at the same time. That's a little bit the beauty of our portfolio since we serve all the various segments. So serving an industry that is very successful. It's the first element. The second one is it's an industry that by definition is very standardized as we know across the country or across the world. When you think about our promise, well, it's probably the industry where it resonates the most, because what we're helping our customers achieve is to understand what's the best-performing unit in their enterprise and to help them get all the units from the enterprise at the level of performance of the best-performing one in terms of cost, in terms of quality of delivery, and in terms of environmental impact as well. So the combination of a very strong business that's been built over decades, with an industry that is especially successful right now 2023 was a great year for that industry, and a value proposition that resonates exactly with them, because their objective is to reach the best-in-class performance across the universe as well. Well, those are three key reasons why this business is doing well. And I believe in the future of that business as well going forward.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Scott Schneeberger with Oppenheimer & Company. Please proceed with your question.
Scott Schneeberger:
Thanks very much. Sort a little bit regarding the cost savings program. It's now been a full year in place and very sizable. Scott touched a bit earlier on some of the key focus areas geographies and segments and that was very helpful. But just curious is this on track as far as timing-wise? Is it something that maybe you've had the opportunity where you haven't had to be as aggressive because you've had a really nice growth 2023? Just curious, how close to on plan timing-wise and size-wise this is? And any incremental thoughts you'd like to share? Thanks.
Christophe Beck:
Yeah. Thank you, Scott. So let me have the other Scott answer part of that question and I'll make a few comments.
Scott Kirkland:
Yeah, thank Scott. No, we are exactly where we expected to be. If we think about the combined program, which is really what we have left. We had some older restructuring programs which are complete the institutional advancement 2020, or complete through the end of the year. The combined program, we delivered through the end of 2023, 75% of those expected savings cumulatively through the end of the year, and expect to realize the lion's share of that through 2024. And as you know, when we initially launched this at the end of 2022. It was initially focused on Europe and early in 2023. We expanded it to Institutional and Healthcare. And if you think about the performance of those businesses Christophe talked about Europe, talked about the great margins there the great growth, and you've seen the great OI in Institutional specialty up over 40% in the quarter and as well as the Healthcare continuing to get better. And so we're on track with those and those program -- that program is having a significant impact.
Christophe Beck:
Well said, Scott. In general, we want to get transformation done the old-fashioned organic way. It's only in exceptional opportunities that we go the restructuring way. When it helps us move quicker, which means making the business more competitive to gain share and improve our margins in order to return more to shareholders. And to Scott's point you look at what we've done in Europe has been an unbelievable journey. The fact that that business has been doing so well in 2023, reaching the highest level of margin, as well in some of the toughest of times, as well is speaking very well on how we're doing that. Think about Institutional, we had to adjust to a new reality business is in the best place it's ever been. And then Healthcare, early on that journey much smaller business obviously, but we will get to the right place as well over time. And the restructuring investment, helped us in all three cases to move much faster and to get returns quicker as well into the P&L. So when I look back, I like what's been done and especially been done as well. So, in budget, and in time, as we had promised as well. So overall, good stuff for the company our customers and our shareholders.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.
Vincent Andrews:
Thank you. Wondering if there's been some change in your procurement strategy, whether it's been changing in some of your large suppliers or changing the terms or duration of the contracts that you have? I'm just really trying to bridge. 4Q came in a bit better than expected but 1H is obviously, a lot better than what we were talking about three months ago. So I'm just trying to understand if something has meaningfully changed in what you're doing or if it is just conservatism? Or what drives us from there to here particularly because – it sounds like a lot of folks think the back half raw guide is conservative. I would probably echo that. So just trying to understand what might change over the next quarter or two that could allow that second half to come in better than what you're guiding to right now?
Christophe Beck:
Well a few points in your question here. So when I think about our procurement team, we have an unbelievable team around the world. We have a new Chief Procurement Officer, who joined us a year ago from a world-class organization that been very respected in the procurement world. And yes, he has brought new capabilities, new tools, new approaches, new ways as well of managing relationships with suppliers. So yes, quite a bit of a transformation. And I think we're really reaching world-class levels that new leadership and that new team that we have on procurement. So I really like what I see on the procurement side. So if there's one team that can leverage as much as we can in terms of capturing the benefits of the easing of DPC inflation. Well that's the right team. So when we talk about what you've heard from Scott a little bit early on, our cost DPC costs are still 35% up versus what they used to be pre inflation. Well, I see it as a huge opportunity obviously for our company and for our shareholders because most of it will recoup at some point. The timing is not in our hands. Our team is trying to get it as quickly as we can. So we will get it. And at the same time I want to make absolutely sure that we get our value pricing done the right way. As you know, our margins are not at the high watermark, the 44% where it used to be we will get back to these 44% because yes, DPC is going to get back close to where it used to be. When? I don't know. It might take a few years to get there. But on the price side with our customers, we want to do it exactly the right way. That's a net benefit for our customers as well. They get more pricing. But when you think about the value we create for them when it far outweighs the pricing that they're paying for us, which is one of the key reasons why our margins are improving so nicely and why are we keeping our customers and building even new relationship as we move forward. So overall, a good story for our customers, our company and our shareholders.
Operator:
Thank you. At this time we have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I'll now hand the floor back to Mr. Hedberg for closing remarks.
Andy Hedberg:
Thank you. That wraps up our fourth quarter conference call. This conference call and the associated discussion slides will be available for replay on our website. Thank you for your time and participation and hope everyone has a great rest of your day.
Operator:
This will conclude today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day.
Operator:
Greetings. Welcome to Ecolab’s Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Release Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Andy Hedberg, Vice President, Investor Relations for Ecolab. Thank you, Mr. Hedberg. You may begin.
Andy Hedberg:
Thank you, and hello, everyone, and welcome to Ecolab’s third quarter conference call. With me today are Christophe Beck, Ecolab’s Chairman and CEO; and Scott Kirkland, our CFO. A discussion of our results, along with our earnings release and the slides referencing the quarter results are available on Ecolab’s website at ecolab.com/investor. Please take a moment to read the cautionary statements in these materials which state that this teleconference and the associated supplemental materials estimates of future performance. These are forward-looking statements, and the actual results could differ materially from those projected. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are described under the Risk Factors section in our most recent Form 10-K and our posted materials. We also refer you to the supplemental diluted earnings per share information in the release. With that, I’d like to turn the call over to Christophe Beck for his comments.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you so much, Andy, and welcome to everyone on the call. “Building on our momentum with strong and reliable growth.” That’s the headline for Ecolab third quarter. Thanks to exceptional execution by our team, Ecolab delivered a very strong quarter as our momentum continued with 7% organic sales growth, which was actually exactly as expected and 18% growth in adjusted earnings per share, reaching the high end of our expected range. Against unpredictable macro conditions, we drove continued strong pricing, new business, accelerated volume trends and continued robust margin expansion. Our focus remains on offense, which we are best at, continuing to fuel strong and consistent double-digit earnings per share growth. We maintained strong organic sales growth with pricing increasing by 7%. This increase reflects both, the value-based pricing we put in place last year and the new pricing we’ve implemented this year, reflecting the enhanced value we offer to our customers. Our volume trends continue to strengthen as well, which is great news, with new business helping to accelerate volumes despite softening in global end market demand. Organic operating income margin continued its impressive expansion, up 160 basis points compared to last year, reaching 15.5%. This notable progress reinforces our path towards achieving our long-term margin goal of 20%. In the third quarter, our adjusted gross margin expanded 360 basis points to 41.3%. This strong expansion is a result of our value-based pricing strategy, improved volume trends and a slight decline in delivered product costs. While global energy prices remain dynamic, we’re confident in our value-based pricing strategy and is absolutely necessary, our capability to implement energy surcharges. We continue to take a prudent stance on the trajectory of delivered product costs as costs remain up nearly 40% compared to pre-inflation levels. Assuming the current high energy price environment persists and our costs ease only slightly in 2024, we continue to expect very strong gross margin expansion in the quarters ahead. This will help us make progress in achieving our historical 44% gross margin and our 20% OI margin target over the next few years. Underlying productivity also remains strong as we continue to leverage our leading digital capabilities. As expected, SG&A expense was relatively stable versus second quarter levels. The year-over-year comparison reflects the rebuild of incentive-based compensation, a result of our strong sales and earnings growth and the strategic investments in our growth engines. We also expect SG&A dollars in Q4 to remain very consistent with second and third quarter levels. Our performance further strengthened across our businesses. The highlight was Institutional & Specialty. We grew organic sales double digits and organic operating income, 28%. Organic OI margin was up 260 basis points to 19.3%, approaching its historical 20% level. Our Industrial segment also performed well, especially comparing to an extremely strong Q3 last year, led by attractive growth in Food & Beverage and in Water as our unique ability to bring end-to-end water and hygiene technologies to customers continues to drive strong share gains in this segment. Operating income growth is the best in the third quarter, reflecting the incentive-based compensation rebuild as mentioned in the last call. And importantly, we expect this segment’s operating income to return to double-digit growth in Q4. Our Healthcare bifurcation strategy is progressing well. Strong pricing and new business had to improve underlying sales growth and operating income. The business also benefited from larger than normal surgical sales, which is not expected to recur. While we are pleased with our progress, delivering sustainable and profitable growth remains a focus for me and for our team. Life Sciences growth also improved to mid-single digits despite continued short-term pressure for everyone in this market as our team continued to win share. While we expect the market to remain under pressure for the next few quarters, our ongoing investments in additional new product capacity and keen capabilities will allow us to capitalize on attractive long-term high-growth, high-margin opportunities. In summary, in the third quarter, we delivered as expected with strong sales and solid earnings growth. Now looking ahead, we expect our strong performance to continue in the fourth quarter with adjusted earnings per share increasing 17% to 24% versus last year, which is above the mid-teens growth we had guided to during our second quarter call and will bring the full year EPS north of 2019’s EPS. This performance is expected to be driven by new pricing, volume growth and robust gross margin expansion expected to be up 250 to 300 basis points versus last year. As we shared with you at our Investor Day in September, we see continued strong momentum in ‘24. Even as global uncertainty remains with softening macro demand, we continue to expect mid-teens or better growth in adjusted earnings per share in 2024. As always, we’ll remain good stewards of capital by continuing to invest in the business, increasing our dividend, reducing leverage and returning cash to shareholders. Most importantly, with the best team, science and capabilities in the industry, we will continue to grow our share of the stable and high-quality $152 billion market we serve. I believe that Ecolab’s long-term fundamentals are stronger than ever, and I am confident in our outlook for continued strong performance as we work to deliver superior shareholder returns. So, thank you for your continued support and your investment in Ecolab. I look forward to your questions.
Andy Hedberg:
Thanks, Christophe. That concludes our formal remarks. Operator, would you please begin the question-and-answer period?
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Tim Mulrooney with William Blair.
Tim Mulrooney:
So, I see you eclipse 19% OI margin in institutional in the third quarter, which was great to see. If you go back to pre-pandemic times, you’re doing about 21% OI margin every year on an annual basis. I think there’s some debate amongst the investor community about whether or not Ecolab will ever get back to that 21% OI margin days or if the business has structurally changed. I’d love to get your perspective on that, Christophe, how long that might take, particularly given the good momentum that we’ve seen this quarter?
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Tim. I have no doubt in my mind that we will get there. We have a great team running a great business and a great trajectory. And as mentioned many times, Tim, the P&L of I&S will end up in a better place post the cycle versus previous years like 2019. Just for perspective, o in Q4, as mentioned during Investor Day as well, our OI dollar will already be back to the 2019 level. So I really expect to cross that 20%, 21% line in the next few years while we drive new business innovation, price, the advantage of the new organization as well with the focus on sales and service and leverage as well digital technology, as we’ve done over the past few years. So, of all the opportunities we have in front of us, all the challenges that we might be facing, I think Institutional is going to be probably one of the best promises that we have ahead of us.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Seth Weber with Wells Fargo.
Seth Weber:
You mentioned a few times in the slides in the release and your comments just about new business wins. I’m just -- can you talk to the selling environment, your sort of traction with new wins and how we should think about new ads going forward? Thank you.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Seth. Well, selling new business is what we’re best at and what we like the most doing. So we shift to offense over the past few quarters is delivering results because our team is really focused on driving new business with our customers, in more difficult environment, and it’s always been the case at Ecolab, well, our customers are looking for ways to improve their operating performance, which is what we’ve always done for them and that they need the most, right now. So they’re very receptive to what we can do as well for them. At the same time, we’re bringing as well all the offerings from the company, especially Water and Hygiene in Industrial segments, but also in Institutional which are very well received by our customers, and we have innovation as well, which has made a step change over the last few years, which are addressing customer challenges or opportunities that they have. So all in, the team focused on what they truly like with the right tools, right innovation, right new products, and customers that are open to what we can do for them, speak, improving their operating performance. Ultimately, that’s all driving better performance in terms of new business, which is really good.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Josh Spector with UBS.
Josh Spector:
Hey Christophe, and a question along the similar lines and particularly just related with just volume expectations. I mean you were pretty confident a couple of months ago that you’re going to deliver positive volumes in 3Q. I guess it rounds down to zero or maybe flattish is the best way to describe how that came in. You’re talking about positive volume in the fourth quarter. I guess, I don’t know, did 3Q change versus your expectations of where it would come in? And the backlog combined with -- or the new wins combined with base earnings, I guess, how do you envision volume moving into early next year? Thanks.
Christophe Beck:
Volume is the most important driver, obviously, for us. And Q3 happened pretty much as expected. We can talk about rounding, obviously here, but we were in positive territory, which is good. And if we exclude Europe, which is the most difficult place in terms of volume, we are at plus 1% already. And I feel confident that in Q4, we will have a 1% volume growth overall also for the company. So when I look at the trajectory that we’re having on volume, especially with all the pricing that we’ve done over the past few years and in a market that’s not exactly booming right now, I feel really good with what we’re doing, where we’re heading. And to your point, for ‘24, while it’s the best way we can close the year with good volume momentum in order to start ‘24 in whatever environment we’re going to find with a company that’s having good sales momentum, which is our number one priority as a company right now.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Mike Harrison with Seaport Research Partners.
Mike Harrison:
Congratulations on a nice quarter here. Just in terms of the Healthcare and Life Sciences business, I’m curious, if we saw any of the benefits from some of the changes that you’re making on the Healthcare side of that business already in Q3, or are those actions still to come? And then, just curious on the onetime 6% sales benefit, did that also help margins come in higher or was that kind of an average incremental margin contribution?
Christophe Beck:
Thank you for your nice comment, Mike. It’s three comments on your question. So focused on Healthcare, not Life Science, I know that they all combined, obviously, but two very different stories, as we know. So, first, if we saw some results of the organizational changes in Q3, the short answer is yes, but it’s early. I’ve been really impressed with how the team has executed this bifurcation, truly leveraging the market strength, the breadth, the critical mass of Institutional, both in terms of selling to new customers or existing institutional customers, the healthcare portfolio and at the same time, getting the costs down. The team has moved very fast, very well, and I’m really pleased with where we are right now. But that being said, it’s very early in the process. So, it’s going to leverage as well or lead to better results in the quarters to come. It’s still a lot of work that remains, but I like the progression. It’s going to be always better, so as we move forward. Now the last point on the onetime sale was related to a contractual commitment that we had to deliver by the end of the third quarter. If you strip that out, Healthcare had kind of low single type of growth, which is better than in the past, but probably what we’re going to see in the next immediate quarters until we can truly accelerate by leveraging the power of the Institution. But overall, I like the progress that we’re making in Healthcare, but let me be very clear. So, I’ve not been happy with the performance of Healthcare for many years. I’m really happy with what the team is doing now in terms of transformation, early results, more is to come and more work is also required to get to the place that we all want to be with that business.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.
David Begleiter:
Thank you and very nice quarter, Christophe and team. Just on the delivered product costs, they came in below your expectations -- or better than your expectations. What drove that? And what are your expectations for Q4?
Christophe Beck:
So, DPC or delivered product cost was roughly 3% down versus last year. A little bit better than what we had expected. It’s always a very broad mixed bag, as you know. So we have 10,000 raw materials that we buy. So they didn’t all go in the same direction, obviously. So some easing on the market. At the same time, our supply chain team speak, procurement team did also some remarkable work as well with our partner suppliers. So both together led to this 3% easing versus last year. Keeping in mind that our costs are still 40% higher than where they used to be pre-inflation. That’s important to keep in mind. I expect kind of the same type of costs for Q4, so kind of a similar easing versus the prior year. And I expect basically those costs to stay similar in the quarters to come, which will mean the slight easing versus ‘23 when we talk about ‘24. I’m not banking on big improvements in the quarters to come. And if they come, well, we will all benefit from them.
Operator:
Next question is from the line of Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.
Jeff Zekauskas:
Ecolab buys its raw materials sometimes monthly, sometimes quarterly, sometimes annually. So, raw materials have moved down through the course of the year, but it may be that the timing of your contractual agreements has slowed the benefits for Ecolab. Can you talk about how you purchase your raw materials in terms of the way raw materials are repriced? That is, should we expect different incremental changes on a six-month basis or a three-month basis or an annual basis?
Christophe Beck:
Well, I have two ways to answer your questions, in a complicated way or in a simple way, Jeff. So, I’ll go for the simple way. You’re right that depending on the raw materials, it’s monthly, some quarterly, some annually with different types of contractual agreements. I think, we have a very good team. We have a new leadership as well who is doing an exceptional work, by the way, so on procurement. The short way to explain it is, usually, we have a two- or three-quarter lag between the market-to-market price changes up or down, by the way, that impact two or three quarters down the road our P&L. That’s the rule of thumb that I’m using and that you should be using as well.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets.
John McNulty:
So the Industrial business, I guess I was a little surprised to not see a little bit better margin lift just given that you have gotten some good pricing there and the raw materials does look like are starting to come off. So I guess, one, can you help us to think about what the volumes were there? And then, do you feel like we’re at a bottom in terms of the volumes for that business, and maybe we start to see things level off a bit? Or is there more to kind of think about in terms of concerns going forward? How would you frame that?
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, John. Well, Industrial is in a very good place, actually. But I’d like to ask Scott maybe to give some perspective on margins evolution.
Scott Kirkland:
Yes, happy to, Christophe. So yes, as you’re referring to the Industrial wide growth was at 8% but the growth rates are really impacted by a couple of things. Certainly, there’s a base comparison to last year. If you look at this on a two-year basis, that business is improving. And then also, as we spoke to on the SG&A, they’re impacted by the incentive comp given the strong performance they’ve had in the year. But overall, in that business, as Christophe sort of referenced, that the strong pricing that we delivered this year, we continue to add new pricing. And now as we start to see that DPC easing modestly, and there was certainly the biggest impact by that. But on a dollar basis, that OI really remains very strong and I think will continue to improve off these levels. But really, as Christophe mentioned, the opening, expect that the growth to return to double-digit OI growth in the fourth quarter, and you’ll see the marginal impact on that as well.
Christophe Beck:
Yes. As mentioned early on, John, I like a lot the performance of Industrial for the past few years, and that’s going to be even more true in the years to come. If you strip out that incentive-based compensation, so the OI growth would be in the upper teens, which is what you’re going to see in the fourth quarter as well. So, it was kind of a one-quarter story underlying our performance very strong.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Manav Patnaik with Barclays.
Manav Patnaik:
Just two-parter, Christophe. So in the pricing, firstly, I think in terms of what you already have in place, if you rolled through, I think you get mid-single-digit pricing next year. But just curious on how you feel like you could keep pushing the pricing dynamic? And then, just a quick follow-up was the new sales pipeline that you’re really confident on, like how big is that the perspective? Like how much of a volume headwind can that offset?
Christophe Beck:
Great question, Manav. Sorry, they’re related, obviously. But the first one, pricing dynamics. If we think about our pricing, so going up, retention has remained very stable, customer retention and at the same time, saw volume accelerating. So it’s basically showing that our balance of pricing and volume acceleration is going quite well. And I’m keeping a very close eye on that because we’re keeping customers for life in our company and I want to make absolutely sure we do that the right way for our customers and for our company. So bottom line, I like the pricing that we’ve had so far, when I look at what’s going to happen in the next few quarters. So in Q4, the carryover from last year by definition is going to get close to zero, obviously, since it’s going to be annualizing over the 12 months. New pricing is quite good actually. So, I’m especially pleased with the new pricing we have, which we will have, obviously, in Q4. And in 2024, it’s a bit early to go too much in detail, but we’re going to be pleased with the pricing that we have while we keep accelerating as well the volumes. So really keeping both in a very good place. Now to your question on the net new business, as you know, we’re not reporting the dollar value of the growth, but we are really reaching record levels on a quarterly and annual basis as well of new business. Our team is 80% focused on new business. It’s where we’re good at, what we like doing, as mentioned before. And those good results ultimately are compensating for the softening of the demand globally out there from all our customers. So, if our volume is accelerating, it’s all related to our new business.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Shlomo Rosenbaum with Stifel.
Shlomo Rosenbaum:
Hey Christophe, I want to get back to a question that was asked earlier in terms of the volume. It sounds like after three quarters of negative volumes, you’re starting to get into the positive territory. Could you just go into some of the kind of standout categories over there? What volumes are increasing and which volumes are decreasing? I know you mentioned a little bit about geography, but maybe you could talk a little bit just by like business unit, what’s going on in various areas of Industrial? Obviously, Paper is down. But what are the standout areas where you might have accelerating volumes versus the ones which are shrinking? And how we should think of that going into next year with some of the softening end markets?
Christophe Beck:
Yes. So to give you a simple answer, so the ones that are on the soft side, Paper, you mentioned it and Europe is the second one. So those are the two. Everything else is trending in either positive direction or improved direction, if they were on the negative side. I’m especially pleased with the I&S, Institutional & Specialty improvements and Water is going to keep improving as well. So those two key businesses are going to be good in the quarters to come, at least with what we’re seeing as well right now. So, we have passed elimination as well, which is always a bit of a different volume play, as we know. That’s doing exceptionally well. We know that competition has a lot to do with themselves. By the way, it’s providing us an opening for us to gain share as well. And our team is doing an excellent job in pest elimination, where we see growth, really steady, strong and margins as well at the same time keeping improving. So overall, our business in a very healthy place with a few places where we need to work on, as mentioned, Europe and Paper. But to the point of Europe, I’d like to mention as well that margin improvement has been great. So volume challenged in Europe, as we know, but okay, not great. And when I think about our operating income it almost doubled in Europe in the third quarter. So the team has done some really good work.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Andy Wittmann with Robert W. Baird.
Andy Wittmann:
I guess maybe, Scott, probably for you, when I was just looking at the adjustments to the results, I noticed that there was $26 million of restructuring and the total exclusions were $0.13 for the quarter. You talked about last quarter expectation of 5. And actually, the guidance for fourth quarter is pretax around $30 million by my calculations or $0.09. I guess, could you just talk about what the restructuring actions were in the quarter and the quarter ahead? Maybe which segments, geographies? And are these -- is it another restructuring program that you’ve taken in the past forming here, or can you just maybe talk about some of the operational effects of what you’ve achieved and are trying to achieve?
Scott Kirkland:
Yes, certainly, Andy, happy to do that. Thanks for the question. Yes. So if we look at Q3, the special charges, restructuring was higher than we had guided to. But that’s really due to the timing of the phasing of our combined savings program that we had announced earlier this year, that’s really focused your question on where are we focused on it. This is really targeted around Institutional & Healthcare and as well as Europe, it started in the end of last year and then we added on to it earlier this year. And that’s what really drove it but really around the timing. But still expected, as I think I’ve talked about in previous calls that about of that program, about 90% of those costs are going to be done by the end of next year, okay? And so there will be a little bit of a tail going to 2024. But really then if you look at that, as Christophe talked before, we’re seeing the benefits in Healthcare from the program there, but we’re also seeing great improvement in the Institutional businesses and that’s where it was really focused. And then, as we talked about at the end of last year, the actions taken against Europe and Christophe mentioned that we’re seeing really great margin improvement in Europe as well. So, I think the actions that we are taking are having the benefits we expected.
Christophe Beck:
Let me add a few comments. So you totally support what Scott just said. Obviously, I’m really happy that most of the combined programs are coming to a close by the end of this year, which was the plan, so delivered as expected as well. At the same time, we know that digital technology, artificial intelligence will open some new productivity opportunities for us in the future. There’s nothing clear in our plans right now, but we will keep looking at that. And if there is an opportunity to improve significantly our productivity through technology in the quarters and years to come, we will certainly capture them and discuss that with you.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Steve Byrne with Bank of America.
Steve Byrne:
Christophe, I’d like to hear your view or maybe ranking among your four key product areas
Christophe Beck:
Yes. Maybe two questions in your question here, Steve. So first, in terms of share gain, we’re not a consumer goods company. So, it’s a bit harder to have the exact numbers, obviously here. But directionally, when I look at the big ones, so I&S up 12% in a flat market, so that’s obviously indicating very interesting share gains. Pest Elimination, up double digit when competition is either in the single digit or down for some of them as well. That’s showing as well, so share gain. Industrial, even comparing to a very strong last year in the mid-single, well, PMI in the U.S. and in the EU is negative. So that’s also showing share gain as well. And as mentioned, in Healthcare growing back again is also showing quite a healthy performance. So overall, I like a lot of how we’re progressing versus our peers in the marketplace. Now to your question on SG&A, as I’ve shared with you in the past, I think that ultimately, the Company is going to be much bigger in the years to come. I don’t think that our team is going to be much bigger. But I’m not expecting the team to be reduced but it might be in different places. And I want to make sure that the number one place where I want to have all the firepower I can is in the front line, which means our team serving our customers, where we will leverage digital and AI technology, not only to improve productivity to help them serve more customers, sell more solutions but more importantly, spend way more time in creating value for our customers, which drives obviously value for our customers, which drives new business, which drives pricing and ultimately improves our margin. So the way I think about SG&A in ratio, it’s going to keep going down the years to come. But ultimately, I’ll make sure as well that through digital technology, we increase the impact of our front line with our customers, which has been core to this company for the years past too.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Patrick Cunningham with Citi.
Patrick Cunningham:
On the Life Sciences business, how should we think about new business growth and investment into next year given some of the persistent near-term weakness sort of juxtapose with the long-term growth opportunity and margin expansion that you highlighted in your Investor Day?
Christophe Beck:
Yes. So, Patrick, on Life Science, we’ve seen improvement, which is good in the third quarter, in a market that’s generally down. And I see that as a short-term impact in the industry, it’s an industry, pharma, biotech, that is very promising for the future, a few challenging times for a few quarters. We see how many more quarters that’s going to last for the industry out there, but I’m very bullish with where the industry as a whole is going in the years to come. Now, when it comes to our own performance, well, the fact that we have positive growth is also a sign of the new business that we’re generating, the share that we’re gaining as well versus our competition. And it’s in that time that Ecolab usually focuses the most in investing for the future. And as I’ve shared during Investor Day, well, we’re investing in capacity making sure that we will have enough production capacity, for the years to come to deliver our growth and not just in one location, but in several locations in Asia, in Europe and in North America. And at the same time, it’s also building capabilities. It’s building our team. It’s building expertise. It’s building science and R&D as well at the same time. And if the market is a bit different short term than what we had expected a year or two ago, our investment plan hasn’t changed because for me the future totally unchanged. It’s just a short-term impact that the market is having on everyone’s performance.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners.
Kevin McCarthy:
Christophe, I’d welcome your updated thoughts on the Healthcare business. I guess, in terms of operations, would you expect that business to grow on par with your corporate average next year or better or worse? And then, on the strategic side, I think you’ve now separated infection prevention from Surgical. And maybe you can kind of talk through what you’re seeing in terms of incremental benefits from that in the early days as it relates to customer touches and productivity and the like?
Christophe Beck:
Yes. Thank you, Kevin. So, three things. First is bifurcation, infection prevention and surgical as mentioned earlier is progressing very well. It’s really providing the right focus for the surgical business that’s serving different people in a hospital than infection prevention, which is much closer to Institutional. This is helping, obviously, the surgical business. And the fact that infection prevention is now managed by the institutional team, well, we get not only the reach because they serve way more hospitals or institutional products, obviously, than healthcare, you get immediate synergies from a growth perspective, you get the synergies on the cost as well because it’s a way bigger team than what Healthcare as well used to be. So in terms of transition, I like the progress that’s being made. Now, in terms of growth performance, if I think short term, speak ‘24, I think Healthcare is going to be below average of the Company and more longer term -- well, my objective is to make sure that our Healthcare business becomes at least at the average of the Company, if not better, but that’s going to take some time and some work in order to get there.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.
Vincent Andrews:
Just a question from me on inventories. Just looking at it, it’s down, I don’t know, mid-high-teens year-over-year, but your volume is kind of flattish and price is up on your delivered products. So, I’m just trying to understand if raws are still sort of flattish, what’s helping the inventory come down and improve the working capital performance?
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Vincent. I’m going to pass this one to Scott.
Scott Kirkland:
Thanks, Vincent. I’d be happy to answer this. So yes, as you probably saw, our Q3 working capital was about $250 million favorable versus last year and largely driven by some targeted inventory reductions. We’re down -- DOH is down about 10 days, so the rate impact on that versus the end of last year. And that’s really been driven by, as the supply chain team has driven great supply chain resilience and allowed us to go after and reduce those inventory levels. And so I would expect really like the working capital trajectory and expect really strong free cash flow growth through the balance of the year and frankly, expect our free cash flow conversion to be above historical levels, which tends to be mid-90s and expect that free cash flow conversion to be above 100% this year on a full year basis.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Rosemarie Morbelli of Gabelli Funds.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
Congratulations to everyone on that great quarter. Institution did really quite well. And I was in -- well, I was in several hotels recently. And the level of cleaning, changing sheets, changing towels and so on has come down substantially. I know you are adjusting your operations to reflect this different world. But I was wondering if you could give us a little more details on what you are doing because if they don’t change anything, you obviously don’t sell your products, services and so on? Details would be appreciated. Thanks.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Rosemarie. This is a core element of focus between us and our hospitality customers. It was initially driven by shortage, obviously, of labor that they didn’t have to do all that work, which is still a challenge for that industry. At the same time, well, they like the fact that less labor meant as well less cost while pricing went up, that drove good margins for institutional customers, which ultimately is a good thing for the industry, and when the industry is doing well, it’s a good thing for us as well at the same time. That being said, quality standards need to get back to where they used to be. It’s exactly playing into what we’re doing which is having products that are delivering better quality, better standards, better cleanliness with less labor. So it’s 2-in-1 -- 3-in-1, it’s automated dish machine, laundry, floor cleaning, whatever those solutions might be as well so for the industry. So we’ve reoriented really over the last two years, all our innovation towards increasing even more the automation level for our customers in order to drive better cleanliness while using less labor and keeping the margins that they used to have. So at the end of the day, if Institutional industry hadn’t changed for a long time like 100 years, I think that the past few years, it’s an industry that has made a step change in terms of leveraging technology more than ever. Well, this is exactly what we’re doing. For me, it’s going to help bring our partnership between us and our customers to a whole new level, helping them perform better and for us leveraging all the innovations that we have to offer. So, at the end of the day, a good news, and cleanliness is going to improve as well in the hotels that you’re going to visit.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Scott Schneeberger of Oppenheimer.
Scott Schneeberger:
Christophe, could you give us an update? It’s been, I think, nearly five years since data centers and animal health became big areas of focus of the company. Could you speak to growth rates at both and how meaningful they’ve become within their subsegments of Industrial? Thanks.
Christophe Beck:
Well, the two are very different, obviously. So data centers is growing at incredible rates. We’re not giving the detail here, but it’s strong, and it keeps accelerating. So it’s north of 30%, which is quite remarkable. You see that with the high tech companies, obviously, saw the usage of cloud is going up exponentially. They need way more computing power in places where there is limited water as well at the same time. And there’s almost no one out there who can serve them in a way that’s increasing capacity, reducing water consumption and at the same time, making sure that the uptime remains close to 100%. So quite a challenge from a technology and expertise perspective. This is playing exactly to our strength as a company. That’s why having focused on that business, having a dedicated team on it is paying off more than ever. And I think that we are at the beginning of that growth journey, which is really good. Animal health, a total different story. Obviously, since the promise there is as the food industry is moving away, at least in places where it’s still being used antibiotics, well, you need to have much higher level of hygiene in the farms that are growing, obviously, these animals. We’ve been building that over the last few years. It’s not an exponential growth like data centers has been, is and even more will be in the future. But that’s a business that’s in a good place, but that you can’t compare with the data center business. But it’s a very good complement for our Food & Beverage business which is doing really well overall. So I like those focus and investments that we’re making in those industries, but they’re very different from each other.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Josh Spector with UBS.
Josh Spector:
I guess two quick ones, probably both for Scott, is, when I look at SG&A, flat into fourth quarter, if I think about normal seasonality and what that means for next year, extrapolating that gets me to like $4.4 billion to $4.5 billion or another 10% increase. I guess, is that the right way to think about it, or would you expect it to move differently than that? And just second, you have about $1 billion plus in debt due in the next couple of quarters, pretty low coupon. Are you looking to pay that off, or would you roll that?
Scott Kirkland:
Yes. Josh, I’ll handle the two follow-ups. The first one on the debt and where we sit today, have strong liquidity, as you saw on the free cash flows for the third quarter and the expectation for the full year and we ended third quarter with around about $1 billion of cash. And so where we sit today, my expectation would be we pay down both maturities due in December and January combined is a little over $1 billion. So expectation there. Again, long-term focus on capital allocation remains the same. But obviously, in the short term, we’re very committed to deleveraging. And on a good path to do that where at the end of the third quarter leverage ratio was at about 2.5% and feel very good by end of next year to get back down to our historical sort of 2 times range. Getting back to your SG&A question. As we talked about, and Christophe talked about in the open that the Q3 dollar was what we expected -- expect similar levels in Q4, as you talked about, but year-over-year, really largely driven by this incentive compensation. And then, as well, if you look at Q3 had a tougher comp -- low incentive compensation last year, but that underlying productivity remains really strong. Just for perspective on that, SG&A, as Christophe talked about, we will continue to grow this business, but we’re needing less people. And actually, in the third quarter, our headcount year-over-year was down on SG&A 2% and so our sales per head was up about 7%. So showing that good productivity. And I would expect -- it’s early to sort of talk about 2024, but we’ll expect to continue to drive great productivity next year, leveraging the technology that we continue to deploy and really increasing the time that our sales teams spend on creating customer value.
Christophe Beck:
Maybe two points to build on what you just said, Scott. On SG&A, it’s 100% on our control. We’ve demonstrated for years that we drive productivity the right way. It’s not by squeezing cost, it’s by automating our operations and focusing our teams on creating value with our customers. So I completely expect that in the years to come, through technology, through digital, through AI, we will keep on that journey and feel really confident about that. And the point on cash flow and debt speak balance sheet, for me, in those times, having a very strong balance sheet, not only has been true for us for many, many years, it’s especially true today. So getting our working capital as tight as it can be, getting our cash flow as strong as it can be, through volume, new business, pricing and all that business obviously generated is absolutely essential. So, on the two sides, keep looking for good progression, both on SG&A productivity and the strengthening of the balance sheet.
Operator:
Thank you. Mr. Hedberg, there are no further questions at this time. I’d like to turn the floor back over to you for closing remarks.
Andy Hedberg:
Thank you. That’s wraps up our third quarter conference call. This conference call and the associated discussion slides will be available for replay on our website. Thank you for your time for participation. I hope everyone has a great rest of your day.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today’s teleconference, and you may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.
Operator:
Greetings and welcome to the Ecolab Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Release Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Andy Hedberg, Director of Investor Relations. Andy, you may now begin.
Andy Hedberg:
Thank you, and hello, everyone. And welcome to Ecolab’s second quarter conference call. With me today are Christophe Beck, Ecolab’s Chairman and CEO and Scott Kirkland, our CFO. A discussion of our results, along with our earnings release and the slides referencing the quarter results are available on Ecolab’s website at ecolab.com/investor. Please take a moment to read the cautionary statements in these materials, which state that this teleconference and the associated supplemental materials include estimates of future performance. These are forward-looking statements, and actual results could differ materially from those projected. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are described in the Risk Factors section in our most recent Form 10-K and in our poster materials. We also refer you to the supplemental diluted earnings per share information in the release. With that, I’d like to turn the call over to Christophe Beck for his comments.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Andy, and welcome to everyone. In Q2, our team delivered another very good quarter, building on continued strong momentum and once again making further improvements compared to the last quarter. Strong execution as well as easing inflationary pressure helped us get to the upper end of our expected Q2 earnings growth range. In an environment that remains unpredictable, our shift to offense continues to gain traction and our confidence in delivering midterm performance that’s ahead of historical average trends clearly keeps getting stronger. Organic sales growth remained strong at 9%, driven by the steady recovery of Institutional & Specialty with 13% organic growth. Pest Elimination and Industrial follow, delivering 11% and 9% organic growth, respectively. Despite softening global end market demand, overall volume trends remain steady. In other good news, volume excluding Europe improved from flat in Q1 to 1% growth in Q2. So, volume trends are improving further, too. Adjusted earnings per share grew 13%, led by strong organic operating income growth that accelerated from 19% in the first quarter to 21% in the second. Although year-on-year comparisons are getting harder, pricing remained strong at 10% as further new pricing continued to grow. Delivered product costs were 5% higher than last year, but is sequentially a bit more than expected, which is further good news. We kept working on strengthening our performance, including targeted actions in Institutional, Life Sciences and Healthcare. Institutional had another remarkable quarter as it continued its very strong recovery, focused on new business and penetration, drove share gains in units served, solutions sold and sales delivered. Growth, value pricing and productivity drove strong margin improvements, which we expect to continue in the second half. Additionally, innovation in labor automation positions Institutional as the ultimate leader in the market undergoing a foundational transformation, driven by evolving consumer habits and increased use of digital technology, all good news for us. Our highly attractive Life Sciences businesses was not immune to the short-term market pressure, which led to flattish sales. However, this is much better than competition. And Life Sciences growth potential remains extremely strong. Even if the short-term market transition takes a few quarters to get back to strong growth, we’re staying on offense. We’re taking this as an opportunity to gain share with major customers and to further invest in capacity and capabilities in biopharma and undisrupted pure water, even if it results in short-term operating income decline. As promised, we’re also continuing our rapid transformation in Healthcare. In the first quarter, we announced a restructuring program to rightsize our cost structure. This is progressing well. Now, over the next few months, we will also be creating two separate, yet focused businesses from our North American Healthcare business, Surgical and Infection Prevention. Surgical, which provides protective drapes for surgeons, patients and equipment in operating rooms, will become a stand-alone business. Infection Prevention on the other hand, which provides environmental hygiene to reduce hospital-acquired infections, will leverage the critical mass of our North American Institutional field sales and service organization to expand customer reach and significantly improve productivity. This is just a further step on our journey to transform Healthcare into a profitable business that serves hospital exceptionally well. While we continue to focus on margin improvement, which improved 130 basis points in Q2, we also accelerated our shift to offense. Our 1,100 corporate account managers achieved a record new business pipeline by leveraging enterprise opportunities to drive penetration and by focusing on new business prospects to expand our reach. Our more than 25,000 field sales associates sharpened their focus on exceptional service and deploying new business, which resulted in promising share gains. Our 1,200 scientists remain focused on breakthrough innovations, which enabled customers to achieve better outcomes at a lower total cost through reduced use of natural resources. We’re also ramping up our investments in digital technology. With Ecolab 3D, one of the largest IoT cloud in the industry and our 1,000 digital experts, we’re uniquely positioned to further empower our field and customers to deliver best-in-class performance to unleash unique customer value, improved field productivity and deliver an exceptional customer experience. You’ll have the opportunity to experience some of this firsthand at our Investor Day in September. In summary, we delivered the second quarter exactly the way we wanted, with strong top- and bottom-line momentum despite the challenging environment. Looking ahead, we anticipate delivered product costs to remain high, but to ease progressively and for global demand to soften further. Although none of this is new, the good news is that we are well positioned to win in this environment as our momentum keeps picking up. In the second half of the year, we expect volume growth to continue improving and gross margins to expand 150 to 200 basis points versus last year. During the last few years, our expertise grew as we maintained our team and rolled out new innovative solutions. Our retention rates remain high as we protected customers from supply shortages. Our margins continue to recover, and our organic operating income accelerated as we drove pricing in thoughtful ways, while increasing customer value. With this, we expect adjusted earnings growth in the third quarter to improve further and to reach 12% to 19% with continued strong momentum as we exit the year. Finally, we’ll remain good stewards of capital by continuing to invest in the business, increasing our dividend, reducing our leverage and returning cash to shareholders, as we’ve always done. Most importantly, with the best team, science and capabilities in the industry, we will continue to grow our share of the high-quality $152 billion market we serve. In other words, our future has never looked brighter. I look forward to your questions.
Andy Hedberg:
Thanks, Christophe. That concludes our formal remarks. As a final note, before we begin Q&A, as Christophe mentioned, we’ll be hosting our 2023 Investor Day at our Nalco Water headquarters in Naperville, Illinois on Thursday, September 14. If you’re interested in attending or have any questions, please contact my office. Operator, would you please begin the question-and-answer period?
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And our first question is from the line of Tim Mulrooney with William Blair.
Tim Mulrooney:
Just one question for me today. You touched on this a little bit in your prepared remarks on the institutional margins, but I just wanted to dig in a little bit more. Because I noticed that your institutional margins, they were essentially flat year-over-year in the first quarter. It jumped up significantly in the second quarter, kind of showing progress to rebuilding back to those pre-pandemic margins. Can you just talk about what drove that inflection in the second quarter, why it happened now? And if you think that type of expansion is sustainable in the back half of this year? Thank you.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Tim. Great question, because Institutional is our largest single business, as you know, in the Company, and they had a remarkable quarter in Q2, which followed a very good quarter in Q1 as well. So, I’ve been very impressed with how the team delivered once again. So, you mentioned it’s up 13% sales growth, 40% operating income growth. So, the team executed perfectly well. And what’s important is that our new model, which we announced a few years back now with focused sales and service organizations, one really focused on driving gains and the other one, servicing customers extremely well, while this new organization is working really, really well. That was the right move that we made a few years back. So, we’re gaining share with new business. This business has a new business pipeline, which has reached record highs over the past few months, and they’ve done an excellent job at executing this new business. Pricing has been very good as well, which has been driven by the total value delivered that they’re delivering for customers that need it. So, more than ever, if I look at the unit share as well in the market with the number of units that went down, we’re quite stable versus 2019, which is remarkable. Penetration is up as well, with programs like Ecolab Science Certified that’s driving the usage of much more solutions than in the past as well in that business. And one other point, I mentioned it so many times. So since 2019, the foot traffic in full-service restaurants, dine-in traffic is down a third. Our sales in that same segment in the U.S. is up 12%, so a massive share of gain that we’ve delivered here. So, we expect this momentum to continue in the quarters to come. And I even think that the OI dollars that we had in Q4 2019, well could be pretty close -- closely delivered in Q4 this year as well, which means that we would be, in dollar terms, very close to where we were in 2019. And well, it’s only upside from here. So, institutions did really well. It’s driven by fundamentals of new business, of pricing, of productivity, of customer service, and I like a lot where we are and even more where we’re going.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Ashish Sabadra with RBC Capital Markets.
Ashish Sabadra:
So, pretty solid gross margin expansion in the quarter, and thanks for providing color on the gross margin expansion for the back half of the year as well. I was wondering if it’s possible to quantify what the delivered product cost was in the quarter. And there was obviously a comment on the delivered product cost to ease, but I was wondering if you could help quantify how we should think about those delivered product costs in the back half. Thanks.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Ashish. I’ll pass that question to Scott, our CFO.
Scott Kirkland:
Yes. Hi Ashish, thanks for the question. Yes, as you said, gross margins improved nicely. It was up modestly in Q1, 20 basis points, but really saw great expansion year-over-year in Q2, up 130 basis points. As Christophe said, continue to drive new pricing as well as maintaining the pricing that we’d already achieved and had hit that peak in pricing in Q1, but continue to drive new pricing and then seeing that DPC inflation easing a bit. So, as you said with that, is that easing inflation on DPC as well as the new pricing is what is going to help drive continued margin expansions in that 150 to 200 basis points year-over-year. So, we expect DPC to continue to be up year-on-year, just at a smaller rate as we see in the second half of the year. So, as we said, up 9% in Q1, 5% in Q2 and probably low-single-digits in the second half.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Seth Weber with Wells Fargo.
Seth Weber:
I wanted to go back to the strength in the institutional margin for a minute. Just, have you -- can you provide us kind of where you’re at on the cost-saving program? I’m just trying to gauge how much of the margin expansion is a function of price versus volume versus the actual -- the cost initiatives that you guys have kind of started to talk to, but not clear where you’re at in that process? Thanks.
Christophe Beck:
I’ll pass that question as well to Scott, but before I do so, the two main drivers, institutional of volume/new business and the pricing that they’ve done really well, also fed by new business and the restructuring that we announced as well earlier, so is going quite well. But I’d like to have Scott provide some more details on that?
Scott Kirkland:
Yes, happy to do that. Yes, as Christophe said, institutional margins are doing very well. It’s really a combination of everything. As we talked about earlier this year as part of the expanded program, that expanded program had a total run rate savings of about $195 million. And we expect to realize the vast majority of that, let’s call it, 80-plus percent of it by the end of this year. We’re progressing on track for that, about that pace through the end of Q2, and that represents for the full program as well as the institutional, the I&S business.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from the line of John Roberts with Credit Suisse.
John Roberts:
Thank you. Nice quarter. Can you give us a rough split of the Healthcare business between Surgical and Infection in North America? And why is Surgical so much smaller in Europe?
Christophe Beck:
So in North America, it’s roughly saw half-half. And in Europe, it’s mostly Infection Prevention, which is the reason why the bifurcation that I’ve talked about is happening in North America, because in Europe, it’s a different business, almost focused on infection prevention today already.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Josh Spector with UBS.
Josh Spector:
Just Christophe, I’m intrigued by your comments around volume about them continuing to improve. I think a lot of companies have been a little bit cautious about some of the trends in Europe. And I mean, it’s still a relatively sizable market for you. So, what are the drivers that you see that gives you that confidence about volumes improving? And when you talk about that, is that up year-on-year, or is that sequential?
Christophe Beck:
Yes, Josh. It’s year-on-year, so the improvement that we will see so in Q3 and in Q4. And in Q2, I was pleased to see that excluding Europe, our volumes went from flat to plus 1% year-on-year once again. And it’s all driven by the way we are driving the business. Because the end markets, honestly, so everywhere around the world have a tendency, so to soften, it’s not true everywhere. But for the most part, the softening quarter-after-quarter, hopefully, that’s going to change as well over time. We’re not counting on that. Just to be clear, our assumption is really that the end market trends will continue to soften in the next few quarters. How are we driving growth? It’s the old-fashioned way, by driving fundamentals. It starts with new business. This is a practice that we have perfected over years/decades, as we call it, a grow-to-win pipeline, which is our new business pipeline, is at an all-time high right now. And we need to deliver it, obviously, by executing it, so customer by customer. In some businesses, it’s quicker, like in Institutional, or it takes a bit more time in Industrial, since it’s heavy equipment that we need to install. But new business is really good. Penetration as well of new solutions within existing customers is a priority so for us because it’s the lower cost to execute, because we go to those customers anyway. This is improving as well. Innovation is also in a very good place. Our innovation pipeline is also at an all-time high. So, it’s an execution question as well. So to get that done, especially in what we call the mega markets in North America, Western Europe and in China, while we follow closely after in the other markets around the world. So, those are the big reasons. And it’s also driven by our new growth businesses, like data centers growing over 20%. Microelectronics, close to that as well. And our water business. That’s doing really well at the same time. So, it’s really focusing on the fundamentals, what we can control, because we can’t control what’s happening in the market.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.
David Begleiter:
Christophe, you are investing in the business. Any way to quantify how much more you’re investing this year than last year on either an absolute or a relative basis? Thank you.
Christophe Beck:
Good question. I think that’s for our CFO as well, so he is looking forward to more questions. Last time he had half a question. So, I’m glad that we can do it in tandem today. So, Scott?
Scott Kirkland:
Yes. David, what I’d say is, I wouldn’t give you a specific number here. I would say we’ve continued to invest in the business not significantly different than we have in the past. As we’ve said through the last few years, we’ve continued to invest in the business, adding capacity, maintaining the team, investing in the team. So proportionately, it’s not that the big driver of what you’re seeing from the OI margin expansion, any change in that investment.
Christophe Beck:
But maybe one comment I’d like to add as well, so to that, David, is that we differentiate how we invest behind our business. So just to share a little bit how we’re thinking about that as well. We call our growth engines for more investments because they grow faster. They have a higher margin as well. We have another category, which is more transforming businesses that could get better as well. They get a bit less, but they’re very focused in how we can drive our better margins. And then, you have kind of the third categories are the ones that need to become more profitable. They get less investments until they get to the right profitability margin. So, we really do that in a thoughtful manner, by business, by market, making sure we invest the best way we can.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.
Jeff Zekauskas:
Your SG&A costs are up 7.5%, which is about your rate of sales growth. Why is it SG&A going up at a lower rate? By contrast, your cost of goods sold sequentially is up 6%, your revenues are up 8%. So it looks like your raw materials are falling, and I take it that that’s giving you some benefit. Is that correct? And then lastly, it’s been a hot summer. So, that gives you above average or better water treatment chemical demand in the third quarter.
Christophe Beck:
Great question. Thank you, Jeff. So three questions here for Scott, I guess.
Scott Kirkland:
Hey Jeff. Yes, I’ll touch on the SG&A. Good question. The SG&A was up a little over 7.5% year-on-year in the second quarter. What I’d tell you is the underlying productivity remains really strong. We’ve -- headcount has come down actually modestly over the last year, while the sales has increased. Our SG&A ratio was flat in Q2. But just as a reminder, we’re down about 300 basis points over the last three years. The Q2 SG&A increased. More than half of that was really driven by what we call the higher incentive compensation, and really is driven by our strong performance. So, what I would say around that as well is that on the SG&A, I would expect in the second half, the SG&A dollars to be pretty stable from what you saw in Q2. So -- which would mean it’s sort of the mid- to high-single-digits for the year. Certainly, in Q3, as you might recall, we’re going up a tougher comp in Q3 last year. But we also expect longer term to continue to drive productivities as we’re leveraging the digital investments that we’ve made over time.
Christophe Beck:
So, that’s on SG&A. Maybe so an additional comment here. We’ve had that question so many times, Jeff, on have you reached the bottom in terms of SG&A ratio? The short answer is no, because of what Scott just said. All the digital technology that we’ve been implementing, plus all works to come will improve the performance of our organization. So for this year, expect our SG&A dollars are to remain kind of stable quarter-after-quarter, keeping in mind that our headcount at the same time is slightly down as well, which is driving that productivity, not because we spend less time with customers. We spend more time, but we automate most of the transactional work, if I may say. Your second question was on delivered product cost. It is easing a bit faster that we had expected, but it’s important to keep in mind, it’s still 40% up versus two years ago, pre-inflation. So obviously, that trend is a positive trend for us, and I’ll take that, obviously, to improve margins as well. But most of the work is on pricing and new pricing, which is going really well. And your last question on the summer. We are in 172 countries. So, it’s not impacting in material ways the business, the way we look at it. So, no influence of that, at least no significant one.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Christopher Parkinson with Mizuho.
Christopher Parkinson:
Just on the Institutional side, you have some very helpful commentary by region. I was just hoping to dive down a little bit more on the volume trends in the various geographies, obviously, specifically North America. And just what ultimately is underscoring the confidence in kind of market share gains, just given all of the volume volatility on the post-COVID era. Just any color on that, and just trying to extrapolate, where the real opportunity is heading into ‘24 and ‘25?
Christophe Beck:
On Institutional, it’s been a pretty broad-based, the improvements, that’s been true in the mega markets, again, as we call them in North America, in Western Europe and in Greater China. Good progress on all 3 fronts here, which is our main focused. And then we have all the other markets, which are doing very well as well at the same time, even though they’re secondary in terms of investments and in terms of our priorities for us. The way we grow volume is really -- so in Institutional, to get even better at CTC, CTG, Circle The Customer, Circle The Globe, or in more modern way to describe it, with enterprise sale to have an exclusive or as close to exclusive partnerships with our global customers. A program like Ecolab Science Certified, which is mostly focused on North America today, well, helps the customer secure their guests, improve their performance and improve as well guest satisfaction at the same time when they use all our products, as well at the same time. Many of our customers are franchised organizations, which means leveraging what we do is helping deliver the quality standards that they want, that they define at the central level anywhere around the world. It’s only us who ultimately can deliver that as well. And last but not least, it’s a solution to improve labor automation. Institutional customers have had very good years in terms of margins the last two years because they’ve managed to have higher prices and lower cost, initially because of the labor shortage and ultimately have noticed that it was a good way to improve their margins. And our innovation is focused on helping them keep those better margins by automating the work that used to be done by what I would call cheap labor. So, those are the main drivers so for the growth in Institutional.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Manav Patnaik with Barclays.
Manav Patnaik:
Christophe, I guess, in Healthcare, apart from perhaps increased focus, I was just wondering if you could help us understand how splitting the business is going to change the growth trajectory here. Because you’ve obviously tried a few different things in Healthcare. So just wondering, I guess, is this one last attempt or does it fit in the portfolio? Just some longer-term thoughts as well would be appreciated.
Christophe Beck:
Good question on Healthcare. So, we will stay serving hospitals with what we do as a company, so protecting what’s vital, reducing hospital-acquired infection remains a point of focus. The fact that our Healthcare business has not been growing and has not making money so for quite a very long time is something that I have committed to change. And I made that commitment pretty clearly a year ago. So, what we’re doing is a very thoughtful plan. We’re quarter-after-quarter, I want to make moves that are driving us to a place where it’s a business that’s growing nicely. It’s not going to be high growth, but that we get good profitability. The first move was really in Q1, to do this cost restructuring in North America and in Europe, so to get the right cost base. And that’s evolving pretty nicely. We’re on plan delivering on that front. And I wanted to make a second step, which we announced a week ago to the organization and wanted to share with you as well in the release and on that call, where we want to have those two businesses, Surgical, which is really focused on drapes protecting surgeons’ equipment and patient’s, which is very different than our Infection Prevention business, which is much more traditional Ecolab business of hygiene and disinfection, infection prevention. Well, those two businesses, we want to have them separate. They’re more focused. They’re serving two different parts as well in the hospital. And most importantly, our Infection Prevention business, which is the one with the lowest profitability, cannot afford the cost structure that we have today. On the other hand, leveraging the huge sales force that we have in Institutional in North America, well, they get immediately a much broader reach on the market because institutionally serving hospitals on the food service and hospitality side today already and at the same time, get a huge boost in terms of cost productivity. So, improving Infection Prevention business performance, kind of almost overnight, it’s going to take, obviously, so a few months to get there, but it’s kind of a sure thing. It’s in our hands, while the Surgical business, which is doing quite well and with good margins, is going to remain a focused business. So, we have those two businesses in a better place, and that’s the next step that we want to execute towards our ambition to have a good Healthcare business ultimately.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Shlomo Rosenbaum with Stifel.
Shlomo Rosenbaum:
I actually want to piggyback on Manav’s question. Is the Infection Protection business going to be kind of folded into Institutional? If you’re going to be leveraging their sales and service organization, what is going to be kind of standalone on its own? And by separating these businesses, does it also make it easier, if you can’t get them to the place you want to be to kind of sell them off in bite-sized pieces?
Christophe Beck:
So a lot to unpack in your question, Shlomo. So, I’m not going to comment about the future. It gives us more options, let’s put it that way. But we’ll have those two businesses. One, our Surgical business, our Drape business is going to be standalone with its own divisional structure, supply chain. So very verticalized, if I may say. The Infection Prevention business, we’re going to have the best of both worlds, because we’re going to have a division that’s focused on corporate accounts, on marketing, on innovation, R&D, really so driving that business strategically, while commercial execution is going to be done by Institutional, where you get much more reach and a much better cost structure as well at the same time. So, two focused businesses. Surgical, totally verticalized; Infection Prevention, a separate division, but leveraging Institutional as their commercial arm.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Andy Wittmann with Robert W. Baird.
Andy Wittmann:
I wanted to dig into the Life Sciences performance in the quarter and your comments, Christophe, about how there’s some short-term disruption in that marketplace. I was hoping you could elaborate on this, perhaps address what’s the cause of the short-term disruption? Or perhaps maybe that’s related to the prior few years, with all the vaccines and COVID and other things like that, maybe we just need to come off of that period, I don’t know. And if you could just talk to the confidence that you have in the recovery. It sounded like it’s not going to be necessarily right here in the third quarter, and you said, I think maybe the comment was a few quarters. But any detail that you can give to support the return to that growth in Life Sciences, including whether that’s the legacy Life Sciences business or the newer filtration business that you’d acquired a year or so ago?
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Andy. So, Life Sciences is a great business. It’s been a great business, since we started in 2017, when we rolled the various pieces together. And the future is even better, because -- while it’s going to be the golden age of pharma, and biopharma is going to be the new way of producing drugs and vaccines going forward as it’s been demonstrated with COVID over the past few years. So, a great business that has delivered very well with a very good future. Purolite is a new element to that business, which adds drug filtration to it as well as new capabilities to filtrate any other liquid, especially saltwater in other industries, as we’ve mentioned. So the industry is a bit under pressure today. I feel pretty good with our flattish growth because if I compare it to competition, which are great companies, by the way, well, their growth is way down. So being flattish, I feel pretty good about that. It’s driven by what you mentioned. It’s kind of still the outcome of the past few years with COVID, COVID-related production inventories as well. And in an industry that is basically getting ready for the future. It’s not going to last long. It’s going to last a few quarters. So, we’re not going to see a major pickup in Q3, but I think it’s going to happen over the next few quarters. But if anything, when I look back, so a year ago, how I was looking at Life Science, how am I looking at the market and the business today where I feel really good and even better with where we’re going, which is why we’ve decided to stay on offense. Even if the market is pressured for a while, it’s not going to last forever. So, for me, making sure that we can get more new customers, that we can build capabilities, which means expertise, people on the street, people in R&D, innovation, and at the same time, some building capacity as well to produce for the future, well, it’s the best time to do it. That has an impact on the operating income margin. That’s okay, because we know that that business is kind of north of 30% on a long-term run rate basis, it’s worth doing it. So, a few quarters a bit pressured, but we’re going to get to a better place, and that business is more promising than it’s ever been. So, I feel good about Life Sciences.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Patrick Cunningham with Citi.
Patrick Cunningham:
So, we’re starting to see some deceleration on pricing. What can we expect from normalized pricing going forward? And specifically on the water business, you’ve highlighted the unique competitive position and customer sustainability objectives. Do you think that will translate into higher pricing power relative to historical pricing?
Christophe Beck:
So, two short answers here, Patrick. The first one is the deceleration of pricing. As you mentioned it, is 100% related to year-on-year comparison. The carryover, we’ve kept 100% of it, including the energy surcharge, by the way. And on top of it, we’re expanding as well new pricing because we’ve become as well even better. We’ve always been good at pricing as an organization. Well, over the past two years, we’ve become even better because it’s been so much related to the value we’re creating for our customers or the savings in their operations in dollar. And we want to make absolutely sure that net-net, it’s a positive story for customers, which it is. So, that’s the first answer, entirely, so the slowdown entirely related to a year-on-year comparison. Carryover is stable, and pricing is expanding, which leads to the second question, pricing for the future. I don’t know, where it’s exactly going to shake out. We’ve been always within the range of 1% to 2% in the past 10 years or pre this inflationary time. Post that cycle, whenever that cycle is over, is going to be better than that. I don’t know exactly what the number is going to be, but it’s going to be north of two. That’s for sure.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies.
Laurence Alexander:
So, it sounds as if the path to positive volumes in the back half is you’re widening the spread that Ecolab can get versus the end markets. How do you see that developing in 2024, 2025? Do you think you can keep the new wider spread or expand it further, or do you see kind of this as a bit countercyclical? And as the end markets recover, maybe Ecolab’s volume spreads sort of compresses a little bit?
Christophe Beck:
We’ll see where we end up in ‘24. If I’m looking at currently, I’m pleased with the fact that we’re better than the market. The fact that we’re improving ex-Europe, as well in Q2 and that we are in positive territory is a very good sign. I like the evolution that we’re having in Europe as well. We have a great team doing very good work over there. So, Europe is going to improve as well. So, over time, new business is very strong, as mentioned earlier. So it’s really focusing on what we can control, new business, penetration, innovation, enterprise selling. Those are the old fashioned good ways of driving volume. We’ve been successful so far. As mentioned, the last two years, we focused primarily our attention on pricing and margin. We shifted our attention primarily on volume a quarter or two ago, and it’s working. And usually, those trends take a few quarters to take hold in our organization. But when we have good momentum, it remains as well. So, I feel positive about where we’re going for the second half, so for sure. And I see no reason why it shouldn’t be good for ‘24 as well.
Operator:
The next question is coming from the line of Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners.
Kevin McCarthy:
Perhaps a two-part question on the price-cost spread. Christophe, on the price side, would you call out any particular areas where you’re seeing the most positive sequential momentum on price realizations and perhaps other areas where it’s more of a struggle and starting to flatten out sequentially? And on the cost side, really a similar approach or question in that, are there particular areas you would call out, where your costs are dropping fast on a sequential basis and other areas where you have stubborn increases?
Christophe Beck:
Yes, Kevin, I’ll give that question to Scott. But before we get there, again, mentioning and underlining how we look at pricing. It’s really twofold. It’s, on one hand, making sure we keep the carryover, that we don’t give price back. And that’s been working really well across the board and at the same time that we can drive new pricing as well in all businesses. And that’s been working very well as well in the organization. But with that, I’ll leave it up to Scott to give us some more insights.
Scott Kirkland:
Yes. Hi. Thanks, Kevin. Yes, as we talk -- as Christophe said, there’s the carry-in pricing, the pricing we executed last year, which we said had peaked at the 13% in Q1, but continue to drive that new pricing. And really, the pricing across the board, as I think about it by segment, very strong pricing across I&S, Industrial, Healthcare, Life Sciences and our other segments, which is mostly passed this as you’re aware. But really strong pricing, both that we had in that the carry-in, the structural price we did last year as well as the new pricing that will continue to accelerate this year. As I think about to your other question, from a cost perspective, DPC, Industrial took the lion’s share of the cost increases over this inflationary environment over the last couple of years. So that’s where we’re going to see the biggest impact as that DPC costs have started to ease, which we talked about in Q2, which was 5% relative to the 9% last year. So as that continues to ease, we’ll likely see the biggest benefit in Industrial, just given that they took the lion’s share of the increase over the last two years.
Christophe Beck:
And Kevin, I’d like to remind you is just two facts I mentioned before as well. So, we saw Industrial having reached in Q2, already the 2019 operating income margin, which is a very good sign. And I&S, so Institutional & Specialty in dollar terms, not in margins, being back to 2019 in the fourth quarter of this year as well. So, two big indications for our two major businesses that our margin recovery is really well on track, and it’s not going to stop there. It’s going to keep improving.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Steve Byrne with Bank of America.
Steve Byrne:
I was curious to hear an estimate from you on what fraction of your sales would you say involve equipment at your customers that either you own or that is proprietary to you that would have to be removed if a competitor were to come in and scoop up that -- that business. And with respect to competitors, are you seeing any changes in competitive dynamics out there, such as the Solenis-Diversey combination? Are you seeing anything coming out of that?
Christophe Beck:
So, a few questions in here. So, to unpack, Steve, first, on the equipment question, just would like to remind you is on 95% of our sales are recurring. So it’s not equipment by definition. This is in chemistry or lease programs or digital subscriptions or sales that you get recurringly on a monthly, on a weekly basis. So the equipment components is really, really small. At the same time, since you have equipment in those customer location, well, it increases the stickiness as well of our business with our customers. Not obvious to change. So from us to someone else, especially, since equipment is not going to be at the same level of technology, need to say the least. But this is not the way we’re driving our business with our customers. We want them to stay with us, not because it’s hard to change the equipment, but because they get the best service, the best customer experience, and most importantly, that their total cost of operation is going down because they reduce their usage of natural resources, carbon and water and at the same time, as well as the labor. So, that’s the way we drive our business, 95% recurring, less than 5% equipment. And to your last question about the competitive situation, our competition is busy right now, but we take them very seriously as we’ve always taken them. And the fact that our new business generation is doing really well is a good indication that we’re kind of winning that war.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.
Vincent Andrews:
I’m just wondering if you can give us a little more specifics on the volume by segment. I mean, I see what you said for the total company on an ex-Europe basis, but can you tell us anything in particular about the key segments?
Christophe Beck:
Yes, Vincent. So generally, the volume profile is similar in every business. I like a lot what the Institutional & Specialty is doing. As mentioned so many times during that call, they are in positive territory and are keeping accelerating. So they’re at the forefront. They had the most to recover as well at the same time, but basically, so doing really, really well. Industrial, let’s not forget that they had a lot of work to do in pricing over the past two years. And as mentioned before, being in a position to deliver similar margins in this quarter, in the second quarter than what they had in 2019 is a remarkable accomplishment. And now so shifting over the last few quarters, on the new business, what is helping improve as well the volume in Industrial. And to call out as well that Water in Industrial is -- has been positive, remains positive and has a very good story as well here. And the drag is in paper, which is mostly driven by our customers or reducing inventories, after all, the past few years, disruptions that they had. But I like the new business that we have in paper. So paper is going to improve as well, the inventory meltdown of our customers is going to improve as well over the next few quarters. So, all in, Institutional and Specialty is strong and getting stronger. Industrial improving as well, with paper becoming better over the next few quarters. And I’ve mentioned the other businesses getting better as well, as we move forward.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Scott Schneeberger with Oppenheimer & Company.
Scott Schneeberger:
I have one for both of you. A quick one for Scott. I’ll ask them both upfront. Scott, the -- was -- you mentioned headcount down, but SG&A pretty steady through the balance of the year on an absolute level. Is that incentive comp, which is the delta? And how should we think about that? Because you had a few challenging years. This looks like a really good year. How should we think about that in the back half and then going into next year? And Christophe, for you, I was going to ask on paper, but I also want to ask on -- in the Industrial segment. I think because you just did cover paper pretty well. But Food and Beverage, a big subsegment there. That’s been double-digit growth for, gosh, 1.5 years. Are you continuing to win a lot of new business? How does that trajectory look? And maybe if you could bear down a little bit into the submarkets
Christophe Beck:
I guess, Scott, you start?
Scott Kirkland:
Yes. Scott, I’ll start on the SG&A question. Yes, as I said, the big driver in Q2 of the SG&A increase was incentive compensation, and would expect that similar level of sort of incentive compensation headwind as you see it. Granted, it’s -- the reason for it is why we’re performing very well and rebuilding on that incentive compensation, but expect that to be the biggest piece of the SG&A year-over-year for the second half as well. But certainly, as we’ve rebuilt on the incentive compensation, we’d expect it to be less of a headwind next year. But really, more importantly, as we’ve talked about continuing to drive this SG&A ratio, which we’ve done very well over the last few years, the 300 basis points and would expect, although for this year, because of the incentive compensation, the SG&A sort of productivity or leverage will be more modest than we saw over the last few years, would expect to continue to drive that leverage in the future, especially as we’re leveraging the investments we made, the cost savings programs that we have to continue to drive great opportunity on the SG&A productivity going forward.
Christophe Beck:
Then the second part of your question, I believe, difference on our F&B business, one of our largest businesses. I’m really pleased with the work that the team has done in this business, they’ve been able to work well on both growth and margin recovery. They’ve been impacted, obviously, by the inflationary costs and delivered product cost, but managed well to manage new business and the margin performance. Second, it’s a positive industry. So it’s serving consumer goods industries. You’re familiar with most of them. They’ve done quite well over the last few years, and they’re still doing well today. So, it’s a good place to be as an industry. And the third point I’ll make is that it’s one of those industries that’s very interested in what we do. It’s about food safety, which is essential for them. It’s non-negotiable, obviously, for their brands and our customers do very well with it. And at the same time, they are the most advanced companies in terms of commitment on carbon footprint, on water usage, on waste management at a lower total cost, which is exactly what we do for them. So, they are very interested in what we do. And the last point I’ll make is we have this unique position of bringing water management and food safety in one offering, which no company today can offer. We’re uniquely positioned to offer that to our customers. And we perfect that model all the time, and I like a lot where we’re heading because that’s exactly what those customers are looking for, which are the reasons why this business is doing so well.
Operator:
Our next question is a follow-up from the line of John Roberts from Credit Suisse.
John Roberts:
North American Healthcare Infection Protection is going to use the commercial organization from Institutional. Do you have any other examples within Ecolab, of sort of cross-segment collaboration like that? And will that result in any intersegment financial reporting?
Christophe Beck:
So, two parts of your question, John. On one hand, we will, for the time being, still keep that reporting consistent with what we’ve done for now. I can’t speak for the longer term. But for now, I want to keep that consistency to keep the clarity. I made a commitment to you that we will improve the Healthcare business. I truly want to show the improvements that we’re making. It’s not by folding it in something else that we’re going to improve it. So, we’re going to remain consistent and transparent. Now, the second part of your question on Institutional being used by other businesses. The best example I can provide you is for QSR, so the Quick Serve Restaurants, McDonald’s, Burger King, Wendy’s and so on, are always more using dish machine in order to automate the labor they have in their restaurant. As you know, the QSR is a separate business, and it’s been true for 30 years. It’s not exactly a new thing. In here, well, the Institutional team is the one that’s serving those dish machines as well. It works really well because we get the reach, because we have Institutional everywhere in the country, and they get the cost productivity because of the critical mass and density that Institutional is having. So, what Institutional is doing for QSR is kind of similar than what we’re looking to do for Healthcare as well. So, it’s a model that we’ve practiced in the past already.
Operator:
Mr. Hedberg, there are no further questions at this time, I’d like to turn the floor back to you for closing remarks.
Andy Hedberg:
Thank you. That wraps up our second quarter conference call. This conference call and the associated discussion slides will be available for replay on our website. Thank you for your time and participation. I hope everyone has a great rest of your day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today’s teleconference. You may now disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you.
Operator:
Greetings and welcome to the Ecolab First Quarter 2023 Earnings Release Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Andy Hedberg, Vice President, Investor Relations for Ecolab. Thank you, Mr. Hedberg. You may begin.
Andy Hedberg:
Thank you, and hello, everyone. Welcome to Ecolab’s first quarter conference call. With me today are Christophe Beck, Ecolab’s Chairman and CEO and Scott Kirkland, our CFO. A discussion of our results, along with our earnings release and the slides referencing this quarter results are available on Ecolab’s website at ecolab.com/investor. Please take a moment to read the cautionary statements in these materials, which state that this teleconference and the associated supplemental materials include estimates of future performance. These are forward-looking statements, and actual results could differ materially from those projected. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are described in the Risk Factors section in our most recent Form 10-K and in our poster materials. We also refer you to the supplemental diluted earnings per share information in the release. With that, I’d like to turn the call over to Christophe Beck for his comments.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you so much, Andy and welcome to everyone. Look, our team delivered another strong quarter, once again, even slightly better than I would have predicted. Top line was very strong. Volume trends remained stable. Margins expanded. Operating income growth got even stronger and adjusted EPS growth kept improving as we promised. All as promised, as we continued to face some real headwinds in foreign exchange and interest. Most importantly, our shift to offense showed some real encouraging signs of progress. Organic sales improved from 12% in the fourth quarter to 13% in the first, with strong performance across all segments. Our net new business pipeline once again reached new records in the first quarter as what we have to offer, water, energy and labor savings while delivering the best and safest outcome in the industries we serve continues to grow in importance for our customers. We also maintained very strong pricing at 13%, which we believe will be the peak as we will begin to lap against last year’s strong acceleration. Our approach to pricing and it’s important to state that is responsible and respectful allowing our customers to absorb long-term increases in a progressive manner. This is backed by true eROI value, the Ecolab way as we help them reduce the overall operating cost, usage of natural resources and their environmental impact. Delivered product cost continued to increase versus last year, but the rate of inflation began to ease. This, along with strong pricing execution, allowed us to drive modest gross margin expansion a bit earlier than expected. That being said, our margin recovery journey has only just begun. Despite our expectation that inflation remains stubbornly high, we remain fully committed to recovering our margin over time, done the right way, when that builds further customer loyalty as we continue to deliver more value. The repositioning of our institutional business, which is a big priority for us, is progressing well as demonstrated by strong sales growth and margin leverage within that segment. Healthcare & Life Sciences organic sales growth strengthened, while operating income remains under pressure near-term at least as we continue to invest in growth and transformation. They are two very different businesses and stories within that segment. In Healthcare, we continue to take actions to improve profitability. Whereas in Life Sciences, we are making further investments as we add capacity and capabilities in Purolite to capitalize on very attractive and profitable long-term growth opportunities. While we continued investing in our long-term capabilities and in digital technology, we also continue to make solid progress in SG&A productivity. The combination of improved gross margins and better operational productivity led to strong organic operating income growth of 19%, up from 10% in the fourth quarter last year. Our adjusted earnings per share growth improved to 7%, which includes a 13% headwind from FX and interest. In summary, we started the year exactly the way we wanted with strong top and bottom line momentum despite a challenging environment. Looking ahead, we anticipate inflation to remain high for the foreseeable future, interest rates to have a strong impact on global demand and continued geopolitical tensions. Although none of this is new, the good news is that we are very well positioned to win in this environment. Over the last 3 years, our expertise grew as we focused on supporting our team and developing innovative solutions. Our customer retention rates remain high as we protected them from supply shortages. Our margin started to recover and our organic operating income accelerated as we drove pricing in thoughtful ways while increasing customer value. And now as macro trends are softening, we will continue to accelerate our shift to offense by accelerating the business, by executing extremely well and by driving productivity improvements and continuing to invest in our major growth engines to drive profitable growth. This will ensure we deliver stronger sequential earnings performance exactly as we’ve indicated during our previous calls. With this, we expect adjusted earnings growth in the second quarter to be in the plus 5% to plus 14% range and to end the year as expected, with adjusted earnings growth in the fourth quarter that reaches low double-digits. And finally, we will remain good stewards of capital by continuing to invest in the business, increasing our dividend, reducing our leverage and returning cash to shareholders as we’ve always done. And most importantly, with the best team, science and capabilities in the industry, we were prepared to grow our share of this high-quality $152 billion growth market. I believe our future has never looked brighter. I look forward to your questions.
Andy Hedberg:
Thanks, Christophe. That concludes our formal remarks. Operator, would you please begin the question-and-answer period?
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Tim Mulrooney with William Blair. Please proceed with your question.
Tim Mulrooney:
Good afternoon, Christophe.
Christophe Beck:
Hi, Tim.
Tim Mulrooney:
Alright. So for my one question, I think I’ll have to go with gross margin. It looks like the adjusted gross margin expanded 20 basis points year-over-year in the first quarter. Now we weren’t expecting to see that expansion year-over-year kind of until the second or third quarter. So that was great to see. But taking into account what you are expecting for pricing and raw materials, I am curious what you’re thinking for the cadence of gross margin expansion as we move through the remainder of this year? Thank you.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Tim. I’m very pleased with the progress that we’ve made, and we know that’s an outcome of what the team has done the past 2 years. It’s been a long journey. We wanted obviously to reach the point where we could turn the corner and then rebuild and expand on our gross margins and operating income margins as well. So quite pleased, as you said, with what we’ve delivered. In Q1, operating income went up 19%, as I said just before, which led to a 50 basis points improvement as well as the OI margin, which is the first trigger for me. And the second is this gross margin of 20 basis points. It came a bit earlier than we had expected. We thought it would happen during the second half of the year because, ultimately, pricing got stronger than what we thought initially, which is a good news. Volume was better than feared, especially because of what happened in Europe. It did not happen because of the higher temperature as well. And the delivered product cost inflation that didn’t go down, but went less up than what we saw in the fourth quarter of the past year. So when we bring it all together, gross margins are turned the corner at that point, which is all good news. Gross margin turning good, OI, operating income margin turning good as well, but we are just at the beginning of that journey because our mission is really start to get back to a high watermark as we call it, and then to keep expanding from there. So we’ll keep improving quarter-after-quarter as we’ve promised and committed as well. But that will also depend on the rate of the delivered product cost inflation, which is hard to know exactly how it’s going to be. It’s been up 9% in the first quarter. We had delivered product cost inflation of 27%, same in ‘22. So 19% is obviously lower than 27%, but it’s still going up. And I don’t see it turn negative anytime soon. So for 2023, I think we will be facing continuous DPC inflation. So with that, well, we will keep working on pricing. We will keep working on volume. We will keep working on productivity in order as committed to make sure that our earnings improve quarter-after-quarter until we get to our traditional low double-digit operating income or earnings per share growth in the fourth quarter.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Ashish Sabadra with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
Ashish Sabadra:
Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to focus on the SG&A leverage that we saw in the quarter, pretty strong leverage there. I was wondering if you could talk about the productivity initiatives that you have – and the cost takeout initiatives, but also how the digital innovations are driving better SG&A leverage? Thanks.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Ashish. I like a lot the progress we have made on SG&A. We have made great progress last year in ‘22 as you know, so we improved our 200 basis points in the past year. And we will continue on a very good trend in the quarters and years to come as we automate much of the transactional work that we are doing either in the field with our sales and service people so they can focus really on creating value for our customers, which is where our investments are best focused on obviously and as well in the whole backbone infrastructure as we call it. This is the implementation of SAP. We are north of 80% of the company on SAP as well now and we are trying to leverage all that critical mass in shared services. So it’s helping on the G&A side while we improve on the selling side as well. So it’s not going to be every quarter, obviously, the same improvement, but the trends long term are going to remain the same. And I think that we are probably midway on that journey. So for the years to come, we will still have some upside coming up out of productivity.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Seth Weber with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your questions.
Seth Weber:
Hi, good morning. I wanted to just ask about the pricing commentary you made. Christophe, I think I heard you say the 13% in the first quarter was probably peak, can you just talk to how you’re handling the energy surcharge, whether that’s starting to roll off or whether you’re trying to merge that into more structural pricing going forward? Just how we should think about the mix of pricing kind of coming off of this 13% number?
Christophe Beck:
I’d love to, Seth. Thank you. So pricing, the team has done a remarkable job over the last 18 months, making really sure that the pricing we were delivering was really so backed by value that we’re creating so for customers as well because we will never go down in pricing. It’s been true for the last 20 years. That’s not going to change in the years to come. This is the Ecolab way of creating value for customers and capturing part of it, which translates into pricing for our business. So when I think about the pricing we had last year, we had roughly sort of 10% of price, so in ‘22. As mentioned, half of it will be carried over in ‘23, which is unchanged. The 13% that we have in Q1, you’re right, you understood well. So it’s going to be the peak for ‘23. We will keep having strong pricing in the quarters to come, but the rate of increase will ease as we lap obviously so year-over-year. And now to your point, under energy surcharge, we’ve been working with our customers over the past 12 months to merge as much as we could of the surcharge into structural pricing, a bit different in every industry that we serve. But for the most part, the transfer from energy surcharge to structural pricing is going quite well. It’s not all the way there, but I like the progress that we’ve made so far.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of John Roberts with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.
John Roberts:
Thank you. Nice quarter. Do you need to shrink the sales of the European healthcare business in order to turn around earnings?
Christophe Beck:
John, it depends on how mean it. So turning earnings for the overall company, no, but for purely healthcare in Europe, yes, it’s important to keep in mind that healthcare is 5% of the overall Ecolab organization. I am really glad that 95% is going really well and 5%, I don’t like and I am staying focused on it. This is not my first priority, obviously, but this is an important priority for me. So when I think about healthcare, I have committed that in ‘23 we will see a turn. It’s going to take some time to get to the right place. But the first action that we’ve done, are doing and will be doing is to right-size the cost structure. We have announced it with our restructuring plan during the last call and we are implementing it as we talk right now. But that’s not going to be the whole song as we know. At the same time, there is a second point that we are focusing on is really making sure that we refocused the business towards what we know how to run, which is the most institutional like business the infection prevention. It’s a bit of a dish machine, obviously, because it’s instrument and endoscope reprocessing as well. We know how to run that business. We know how to make money with that business. It’s not where we focused in the past, but that’s where we’re going to focus as well in the future. And the last point is, we’re going to really think about options to make sure that we can strengthen this core business in order to make it a real Ecolab business and more profitable as well. So bottom line, still some work to do, again, 5% of the overall company. So it’s not going to move the needle, obviously, for the earnings of the overall company, but I’m committed to make it work.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Josh Spector with UBS. Please proceed with your question.
Josh Spector:
Yes, hi, thanks for taking my question. Just curious on your thoughts on volume as you walk through number of puts and takes, I guess, with maybe Europe being an easier comp, same thing with Asia, North America, maybe a bit more challenging. So do you see this kind of minus 1% persisting into next quarter? Do you have a different view on the second half, given where comps are, just curious on your thoughts around that? Thanks.
Christophe Beck:
Yes. Thank you, Josh. So on the volume, as mentioned, we’ve been slightly negative. It was kind of the same trends as what we saw in the fourth quarter. So honestly, better than peer, if I may say, because Europe was less bad than we sold. So from an environment perspective, honestly, I like a lot, how Europe has been delivering. In the first quarter, sales were good. Margins were extremely good, and I think that they’re going to have a very good year in Europe in ‘23. So that’s the good news. If I look at overall volume for the company, if you exclude Europe, as mentioned just before, so we’re slightly positive, which is a good news as well. And the third point, which is most important is the shift to offense that we’ve initiated a few months back, while we wanted to really make sure that pricing was done the right way in order to enter ‘23 very well positioned to improve our margins. Well, that was taking a lot of time for our sales team that they were not focusing on generating even more new business. That being said, new business in ‘22 was stronger than in ‘21. So it’s not that it was not good. It was good actually, but I’d like to have much more. Now we’ve made that shift – it’s what our teams like to do. It’s where we are best at, ultimately, I like a lot when I see the new business that’s been generated. We had a record high in Q1, which is a very good news. We need to execute that properly as well. So we will be biting a slowdown of the global economy. I don’t know whether that’s exactly going to go, obviously, but it’s not going to accelerate that I’m pretty sure about. So we will have to drive volume the old-fashioned way with new business with innovation, investing behind our growth engines as well. So it’s going to improve quarter after quarter. And I think that, that’s the journey that we are on, and you will see that in the quarters to come, especially in the second half of the year.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Mike Harrison with Seaport Research Partners. Please proceed with your question.
Mike Harrison:
Hi, good morning. Sorry, good afternoon, I guess. Christophe, I know you are reluctant to put numbers around the full year outlook. The wording compared to 3 months ago is pretty much unchanged. But can you talk about how confident you are in that outlook today versus 3 months ago? What are some components that have changed for the better? And maybe what are some areas that you’re more concerned about?
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Mike and good afternoon. You’re right. My wording hasn’t changed, but my level of confidence has risen in the meantime, which is the net positive. We’re off to a good start in ‘23, but let’s face it. It’s the first quarter of the year, three more to come and a lot can happen still obviously. What we can control like what we’re doing, fundamentals are strong. That’s new business, that’s pricing, that’s innovation, that’s productivity, that investments and so on, all these things that are all in our hands, obviously. And I think that the team is executing very, very well. So we will keep improving so quarter-after-quarter. As we’ve done in the past few quarters, we will be doing in the quarters to come. But the honest truth is, I’d like to see what happens in Q2 in the world not in what we can control in terms of inflation, in terms of interest rates, in terms of war in Europe, in terms of debt ceiling, you name it. The list is long, obviously, here. And I want to understand what happens on the delivered product cost inflation because of all those elements. So you’re right, unchanged wording, unchanged outlook, higher level of confidence to deliver as I’ve committed to as well here, but we will know much more after the second quarter, and I will share with you what I’m seeing. And if things are getting better, I’ll share that with you as well, but we’re going to have a good year.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Manav Patnaik with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.
Manav Patnaik:
Yes. Hi, maybe I can just squeeze in a two part. But just as a follow-up to the new business comments you made, I was hoping you could help just quantify how much that new business is adding to get some sense of gross volumes, I guess? And the main question I had was just any update you have on a lot of the kind of the data initiatives you had talked about a while back if – where that was today?
Christophe Beck:
Help me understand, Manav, I really wanted sense. So when you say data initiative, what is it exactly like, Manav.
Manav Patnaik:
Well, just broadly, all the kind of data collection that you have done on all your on-site, I think you hired a Chief Technology Officer and the productivity, etcetera, whatever the outcomes there were.
Christophe Beck:
Okay. Got it. Thank you. That’s helpful. So two questions here. First, on new business. We’ve never disclosed the exact numbers on your business pipeline and growth. So I’m not going to start now. But we haven’t changed our definitions. So it’s really so comparable. So in Q1 was quite a bit better than what we had in the past few quarters and even compared to Q4 as well. So the fact that new business is accelerating year-on-year is a good news, obviously. So for the new business generation. Then once we have sold that new business, we need to install it, as you know. So we don’t sell for the most part software, so people need to install our technology and make sure that the chemistry is working and that the processes are working as they should and all that. That usually takes a few months or a few quarters to implement nothing new. That’s always been true, and that’s going to be true this year. So very good new business pipeline. Major refocus of our team on new business. If you want to think about it in the past 2 years, our team was 80% focused on pricing and 20% on new business. Now it’s the other way around. It’s 80% on new business and 20% on finishing the price and keeping pricing for the future as well. So that’s going to have an impact, obviously, on our volume, which we will have to net, obviously, with the market evolution. But I feel confident for now that we will master that quite well. Now the second part of your questions are very different on digital. We’re still focusing on three major pillars. That hasn’t changed. The first one is really so to generate value for our customers. The way we’ve done it in the past with 3D TRASAR is going really well. Ecolab 3D, which is the Ecolab Cloud, one of the largest in the industry, by the way, since we’re connecting tens of thousands of plants on the cloud is giving us a very unique view, Manav, on what’s the best performance that we can reach within a company, what site that’s having the best performance and how to lead to that performance and then expand it across that customer. We can do it within industry, across the industries. And that we’re really focusing on with our team. And just for perspective, we have over 1,000 people in digital today. So we have quite a bit of firepower for that. The second pillar is really to focus on field automation, as mentioned before, and you see it in the SG&A productivity as well. This is not squeezing our teams, it is really sort of providing them with the tools that they can really focus on creating value for our customers and that we can automate all the transactional work. We’re early on that journey, but it’s progressing well. You can see it in the numbers. And the last component is really the customer experience really making sure that they can have a real-time data-driven type of experience, e-commerce is something that has expanded very well over the last 12 to 18 months but it’s also what we call our digital industrial bulk has been an interesting project as well. We ultimately saw all our distribution to industrial customers is connected to the cloud and can be done not only in real time where customers know when the products are going to come, but we can also increase the safety level of the delivery because it makes sure that what’s being delivered is being delivered exactly in the right tank, and that’s been a great plus, not only for our customers but for our team because safety still got better. So sorry for the long answer on that, but good progress on the digital front as well, and we’re still on our journey here.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Chris Parkinson with Mizuho. Please proceed with your question.
Chris Parkinson:
Great. Thank you so much. Just in your supplemental, when you break down the water business, it’s pretty clear that you’re still enthusiastic about the pricing gains as well as new business wins. But Christophe, just given what – understanding you don’t have a crystal ball, but just given what you’re seeing right here right now and what you’re hearing from the customers of these various substrates, can you just comment on what your expectations are for the evolution of those for the balance of the year? And then perhaps comment on – it seems like this business has been under-earning along with Institutional. And just how long you think it will take to get back to its, let’s say, full potential at trend line? Thank you so much.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Chris. So the water business, as you could see, is doing really well and has been doing really well in the first quarter as well. It’s our largest single business, as you know, it’s been growing 14%. Volume has been nicely positive as well. very nice new business in that field because customers need always more what we’re offering, which is basically helping them produce better products, more products, while reducing their water usage. And why do they do that. It is not only to reduce the impact on the environment. But when they reduce the water usage, they reduce their energy usage, reduce their carbon footprint, reduce their cost as well, and that’s why they invest even more in what we’re doing. So the water promise that we started 10 years ago when we acquired Nalco is really paying off in a really big time. And when I look at the pricing journey, a very nice one over the past few quarters. When you look at industrial, as a whole, the OI margin was up 80 basis points. Gross margin was even better than that. So very nice margin improvement, good sales momentum and within that sales momentum, I’d like just to mention, so a few interesting highlights. Our global high-tech business went up 36%, power was 20%. Mining was 40% plus. So a lot of very good things happening in water out of what the team is doing in that field.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan. Pleas proceed with your question.
Jeff Zekauskas:
Thanks very much. I have a two-part question. I understand that you’ll be annualizing the price increases of 2022. But in the course of 2023, do you expect to raise prices. Normally Ecolab’s prices go up 1% to 2% a year. But my general sense is you think it should be greater than that, maybe 3%. Is that what you plan for this year? And secondly, SG&A costs went up 8% in the quarter. Isn’t that too high? I understand that the overall SG&A margin was a little bit better. But given the restructuring efforts that you’re making, shouldn’t SG&A be growing at a more moderate rate? Is that your target or no?
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Jeff. So let me take pricing, and then I’ll give the floor to Scott who need to work a little bit here as well during that call in SG&A. On pricing, you’re right. We’ve always increased prices overall in our history, 20 years plus, it’s not going to change in ‘23 and in the years to come. So there will be a combination of a few things that are going to happen. As mentioned before, 10% was the pricing we had last year. Half of that will be carryover that math since we’re not going to give it back in 2023. And we will build on that some incremental pricing. So you do the math, obviously, and then there is the lap year-over-year. Then there is the last question or part of the question, which is what’s going to be the run rates are going forward. We were 1% to 1.5% in average, in the last 10 years as a company. Depending on where inflation is going to be in ‘24, I don’t know how it’s going to be, but it’s going to be north of 2%. I’m almost sure about that. Jeff, I think that our incremental pricing will be higher than what we had in the past before this inflationary cycle. So if you combine both the carryover and the new pricing, you can see more or less where we’re going to be and for the years to come. I think that the company has developed a very strong muscle in pricing, not because we’re jamming pricing to customers. As mentioned before, we’ve taken our time to do it really well, really respectfully and backed by value with our customers, and we’re going to continue to do that in the future. It’s going to be good for customers. It’s going to be good for us, and it’s going to be good for shareholders, especially as inflation will be easing since our margins will improve as well at the same time. So that’s the general picture on pricing. Now for SG&A. So Scott, you might want to make a few comments.
Scott Kirkland:
Yes, sure. Thanks, Christophe. Hey, Jeff, yes, so as you mentioned on SG&A, we think about it from a productivity perspective as a ratio. And as you mentioned, the SG&A leverage continued to improve in the first quarter. We were down 30 basis points year-over-year. And that’s on top of the comparing against a very strong quarter last year where the SG&A ratio improved by 200 basis points. And also, as you know, seasonally, just from a ratio perspective, it’s a sale – it’s our lowest quarter in sales. So obviously, that’s going to drive less SG&A leverage as well as just timing of investments and spending. So we feel very good about where SG&A is, the programs we’re doing, expect to continue to drive that SG&A leverage through those productivity – normal productivity programs as well as the cost savings programs that you mentioned. So we feel really good about the trajectory we have on SG&A and getting back that OI margin.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.
David Begleiter:
Thank you. Christophe, in Institutional, we are seeing some better trends amongst your customers. Are you yet seeing those trends in your volumes? And actually, in Q1, why are your volumes down in Institutional? Thank you.
Christophe Beck:
So David, I like the progress we’re making in Institutional. You’ve seen the numbers, 14% growth in Institutional & Specialty and 16% on the operating income, which is good. But this is the beginning of the journey. As I’ve mentioned a few times over past calls, the industry behavior has changed quite a bit. If I take the example of restaurants, which unfortunately are the same numbers as the ones that I’ve mentioned during the past few calls, the dining in traffic, which means people going in the restaurant and sitting at the table is down 30% versus 2019. And we were all hoping that, that would improve quarter after quarter. Well, the ugly truth is that it’s not. And people have gotten used to order online, to do some pickup or being delivered as well the food, and that’s amazingly sticky interestingly enough. So it’s been good for our customers, and I’m really pleased for them because at the end of the day, well, they are selling the same or more at a lower service cost because they have less people staying in the dining room, very good deal for restaurant operators. And I think this is a very good thing for them as well. We had to change obviously. So for us, when I think about it versus 2019, so if you take in restaurants, this minus 30% of foot traffic in their dining room, well, our sales in comparison in North America are up 12% in 2023, so the first quarter. So we’ve gained market share. Our teams have managed to really sort of drive share, drive pricing, drive innovation to make sure that we could get ahead of the curve. But the baseline has changed quite a bit. A bit similar in hotels as well because we’re all experiencing that. Our room prices are higher, good things for the industry, obviously. But the services provided have gone down. This is helping their margins. This means less natural demand for what we’re doing. And our teams is and will be offering more services in order to drive penetration of all we do for the lodging customers we have around the world in order to make sure that we keep growing in an industry that has changed a bit what they are offering for their guests. And for perspective, the rooms sold off versus 2019 in North America up 8% and our housekeeping business is up 18%, for instance, as well. So, showing as well that we are gaining share, but a lot needs to be done in an industry that has changed because guest demand has changed as well. I like what the team is doing, so offering Ecolab Science Certified, which means offering the whole Ecolab offering to customers in order to make sure that their guests are safe and satisfied in a way that’s reducing cost as well. We need to reduce our own costs as well at the same time, which is why we’ve announced this restructuring program in Institutional that is done for the most part as well, and it’s going to pay off in the quarters to come. So we’re early in that journey. But I like what the team is doing in repositioning itself for a new industry, which I believe is going to be better after that whole phase than it was even before.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
John McNulty:
Yes. Thanks for taking my question. And my question is on the global Healthcare & Life Sciences businesses. The margins in the third quarter were in the single digits. They spiked back up to mid-teens. And then again, this quarter, they are back down into the single digits. So can you help us to understand what’s driving the big volatility that we’ve seen there over the past few quarters in what I would assume is normally a pretty stable business. And then I guess to one of the points you brought up earlier, you indicated that you’re looking to strengthen the core of the specific healthcare side of Healthcare & Life Sciences. I guess can you flesh that out a little bit? Does that include potentially M&A? Or is it really just internal self-help? I guess how should we think about that.
Christophe Beck:
Good question, John. So Healthcare & Life Sciences, it’s 1 group, but it’s two very different businesses as we both know. One is doing really well Ecolab Life Science and the other one, not so much. And I’ve been very I’ve spoken about my view on the performance of this business and my commitment to improve it. So when you talk about volatility of earnings in Healthcare, while we’re talking about the small base, unfortunately, a small dollar variances have a big percentage variances as well. So it’s kind of a good bad problem, but it’s still a problem that I have here. As mentioned before, Healthcare is 5% of the company. I’m glad that 95% of the company is doing quite well. So I want to make sure that Healthcare gets to a better place by driving the three things I mentioned before, so the cost structure, making sure we refocus on our institutional-like business, disinfection prevention and third, to your point, so strengthening the core. Overall, Healthcare is not going to get bigger for the company in the years to come. So to answer your question on the M&A piece. But we will keep working on adding new offering, new expertise, new capability. I want to make sure that the future is going to be focused on a business that we truly understand the business that we know how to make money, which is the closest to the institutional business where you have kind of a dish machine at the core of what it is. So more to come, I will share with you along the journey, what we’re doing and what we will be doing, but you will see a change of performance in 2023.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Shlomo Rosenbaum with Stifel. Please proceed with your question.
Shlomo Rosenbaum:
Hi, good afternoon.
Christophe Beck:
Good afternoon.
Shlomo Rosenbaum:
Hey, Christophe, can you talk a little bit about whether you’re seeing any tangible results yet from splitting the sales and services role within the Institutional segment? It seems like a pretty big difference from the way you guys have operated from before, and I’m not sure if takes a while to see results, if you’re actually seeing the results right now, when you would expect to see a significant change? Maybe you could just flesh that out a little.
Christophe Beck:
Yes. Thank you, Shlomo. So it’s a change that we’ve initiated in 2021, if I remember right. So it’s been quite a while ago. It’s something that we have been preparing very carefully. It’s a large business. It’s a successful business in an industry that is changing and that will be changing in the future. So it’s combining repositioning towards what our customers truly need while making sure that we’re improving the performance our overall business. And that’s why we’re doing that in a very careful, thoughtful manner. I might be taking a bit more time than some would wish. But I want to make absolutely sure that Institutional after that cycle is in a better place than it was pre-COVID or pre cycle. This is my objective number one. And as mentioned before, when you look at the numbers I mentioned on restaurant with traffic in dining down 30% and our own sales up to 12% versus 2019. So precycle as well, same on hotels, as mentioned before as well, is showing that we’re gaining share. At the same time, our margins are improving as well, so in that business. So the fact of splitting sales and service has reached or is reaching because we’re still on that path, our two objectives. The first one is to gain share, as mentioned before, so we did. And second is to reduce our cost because we have a service organization that is really organized in order to have the best performance in serving and servicing our customers. And when you look at the cost structure that we have in Institutional, it’s improving as well. So, we get both. Gain share in our end markets and at the same time, reduction of our cost structure that leads to better performance for the business. So, work in progress, but I like where we are going here.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Wittmann with Baird. Please proceed with your question.
Andrew Wittmann:
Great. Thanks for taking my question. I guess Christophe, I had a question about the gross margin. You talked about you are targeting getting back to the prior gross margins and eventually even exceeding that. I guess with – the business mix has changed over the recent years, certainly, in the waning days of your energy ownership, it was weighing on margins. Purolite goes the opposite way. That’s a very high margin – gross margin business. So, I guess I don’t know what the target gross margin to get back to the prior levels is, and I was hoping you could kind of clarify what that gross margin is that would be equivalent on today’s mix of business to kind of where it was pre-inflation or pre-COVID, if you understand what I am asking here?
Christophe Beck:
I think so, Andy. So, what we have said is that we want to reach first our 20% operating income margin. And we have been pretty clear of that. That’s where we want to get to, the quicker, the better, and that’s not the sound barrier, once we reach that, it’s to keep going further after that. So, to your point, yes, job one is to recover the margins that have lost over the past 2 years during this inflationary time. That’s always been true. As you know, in the past, we get dollars first, we get margin second. It’s lasted longer this time because inflation was way higher than what it is today mentioning earlier as well on that call, so 27% in ‘22, only, which adds to 20% as well, so in ‘21 of delivered product cost inflation as well that we had to face as a company. Well, it’s taking a bit more time because it’s longer and deeper, but we will get back to where we used to be, and we will expand from there. The second thing or third thing is the business portfolio, as you mentioned. Well, on one hand, Institutional saw – was the most behind after COVID, just the fact of having Institutional recovering will help our gross margin and operating income margin as well as a company. And that’s an old business kind of performing better in the future. That’s not the new thing. On top of it, yes, you have businesses like life sciences that are above the average of the company that are growing fast as well at the same time, that’s going to help further. So, overall, good pricing work, delivered product cost that hopefully is going to ease, but I am not expecting to turn negative anytime soon and certainly not in 2023. Portfolio that’s going to keep improving, innovation that’s always above the company’s average. And last but not least, the new businesses like life sciences that are going to contribute. So, we are going to get back to where we used to be in terms of margin, and we will keep expanded from there in order to get to the 20% OI margin I talked about.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Connors with Northcoast Research Partners. Please proceed with your question.
Ryan Connors:
Hi. Thank you. Good afternoon. I know you have indicated it’s not necessarily a needle mover in the near-term, but I wondered if you could give us any update on the rollout of the Home Depot initiative and how that’s tracking relative to your expectations?
Christophe Beck:
Great question. Thank you, Ryan. Yes. It’s not our biggest business, obviously. But it’s quite a fascinating journey because we all see obviously, those products when we get to the stores of Home Depot. I hope Ryan that you participated as well, so to our new venture here. It’s been a great story over the last few months. It’s early. We started in January. Home Depot had their market manager conference a month ago with 5,000 people, the number one innovation was our rollout of the Ecolab products that we do exclusively for them. So, it’s a big deal for the Home Depot. And it’s an interesting deal for us. We take it extremely seriously. We have a great team after it. We are doing it very thoughtfully. We are trying to learn as much as we can with the consumers, what the pros since it’s the main focus of that whole business are looking for as well, so far, so good. Every week, we track the progress, and it’s been a remarkable progress week-after-week without disclosing numbers that need to be Home Depot’s numbers, obviously here. I like where we are going. It’s not going to move the needle for the company in ‘23. But down the road, I think it’s going to be a nice growth engine for the company.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.
Laurence Alexander:
Good afternoon. Just a follow-up on your discussion around sort of the pricing environment, particularly in a more inflationary environment. As you have done experiments around the world, do you get a sense that your ability to take share and your pricing initiatives have kind of a linear relationship, or is there kind of a non-linear kind of breakpoint where if you push too hard, the share gains really deflate very quickly. Just can you give a sense for how you see the customer psychology playing out based on what you have seen over the last couple of years?
Christophe Beck:
We haven’t felt any elasticity issue, which is a good news. And the reason why is because our focus is really making sure that at the end of the day, the customer is better off. Even if it takes us more time, more effort to get to the right place, we want to do it in a way that we can keep the customer for life, which is the mantra that we have in our company. It’s not to win a quarter, it’s to win a lifetime together with our customers and many of them we have had for decades as you know as well. So, we start focused on creating even more value for customers. And honestly, we have discovered ultimately value that we have been creating for customers that we have not been merchandising as well as we should have in the past because pricing was not such a big deal. In the past, well, it has been an argument in order to get a bigger share of what we were creating as well, but always making sure that the return for the customer remains very strong. This eROI of 25% return for the customer is our mantra. It’s not always the same for every customer, everywhere around the world. But it’s showing that it’s pretty high from a return perspective. This is good for us. This is good for the customer. And ultimately, it’s good for our share gains as well because when customer get better outcomes both from a product perspective and from a performance perspective as well, while reducing their impact on the environment, well, they want to buy more. So, this is helping us as well gain further share. So overall, I think it’s been a very positive journey for everyone. It’s been a learning process, and it’s always a painful process to learn. But at the end of the day, it’s been good for everyone.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research. Please proceed with your question.
Kevin McCarthy:
Yes. Good afternoon. Christophe, would you comment on your volume experience in the life sciences business in the quarter as well as what you think it might be for the year. Reason I ask is on Slide #10, you cite sales growth of 10%, including robust pricing, which seems to imply that there wasn’t as much volume, and I found that to be counterintuitive following the capacity expansions you have done in the U.S. and UK. So, just wondering if there is anything anomalous there with regard to the comparison or customer behavior, if you could help us put that in context. Thank you.
Christophe Beck:
No, in general, it’s been a very good story. It’s not going to be every quarter the same because in Life Science, obviously, where half is our Purolite business. We are building new foundations. We are expanding the capacity, as you mentioned before, we are investing as well in the team that requires time to do it very thoughtfully. But when I look at the capacity build, we are exactly on schedule. It’s going really well. We are learning while we are doing it. But for the most part, it’s going well. When I look at the whole new business generation, good progress being made here as well at the same time and driving it towards customers, so it takes time for us to do it really, really well. We had as well that shift, obviously, so from pricing to new business, which impacted as well. Life sciences, good on margin and it’s a shift that’s required in order to get more volume going forward. But the stores are aligning very nicely in this overall life science business. I like a lot where we are going. Long-term, it’s not going to be every quarter the same as mentioned a little bit early on, but the trajectory, very good, very promising, and we are going to do that really well.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Steve Byrne with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.
Steve Byrne:
Yes. Thank you. So, what would do you attribute the primary driver of the new business wins in water? And I say that not beyond – not discarding the effort that your sales force is putting in. But is this new customers, or is this expanded treatment for existing customers, is there something particularly driving it such as increased regulatory or legal scrutiny on your customers?
Christophe Beck:
Yes. Steve, it’s mainly three things. Some of those you have just mentioned, obviously, so a good business doing really well and that keeps improving, so a very good story. It is the leading water business in the world, so enjoying a very special situation in the industry, even though we are small versus the whole market that we are serving. But the three main drivers of growth. The first one is we are trying to focus as much as we can towards the end markets that are growing the fastest. When we think about data centers, for instance, people don’t think data centers mean a lot of water, well, they use a huge amount of water. And that’s driven by cloud consumption, obviously, by the high-tech companies and have all made commitments to get to net zero in the foreseeable future for the most part in 2030. Well, that’s growing fast because the industry is growing fast and at the same time, they are trying to get less water consumption, well, that’s a double win for us. Think about microelectronics as well require a lot of ultrapure water. It’s a fantastic business. So, for us, well, that’s driving growth as well at the same time it can be as well more traditional businesses like mining, as I mentioned before as well, a huge amount of water that’s being required. We have shifted years back way, thank God, from the coal business towards fertilizers and premium high-tech materials like copper and nickel, all related to renewable EV technology. Well, that’s driving very nice growth as well. So, we are, first and foremost, an end-market focused that’s helping us drive growth. The second is most of our customers have made commitments in terms of carbon and water. And they all have – or most of them have a hard time so to get to their commitment. We are best positioned to help them get to where they want to be, the right way, which means while saving money as well at the same time, we don’t believe in the green premium. We believe in the green benefit, and that’s the way we are partnering with our customers. Well, that’s driving more demand for what we are doing. And last not least is innovation. We keep innovating in our water business in a remarkable way, especially on the digital front, which is high margin. By the way, it’s something that’s connecting our customers as well, increases the stickiness as well of the relationship, but all for the right reasons, obviously. So, if you think in terms of end markets, in terms of what we do for customers to reach the sustainable commitments and third, innovation, well, those are the three main drivers for our water success.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.
Vincent Andrews:
Thank you. Christophe, I just wanted to follow-up on delivered product costs. I heard you earlier in the call, say that they would be up for all of 2023. And I am wondering, if you can just disaggregate them a little bit. I believe there is some labor included in your delivered product costs as well as freight. I am assuming labor is up. Freight, I would think, would be down. And I know you buy 10,000 raw materials, but I would think as we move through this year, we have – shouldn’t we be heading into a deflationary environment for your actual raw materials, or do I have this wrong?
Christophe Beck:
So, a few elements, Vincent, here. So, labor is not in delivered product costs for us. So, that’s outside those numbers that we have always been talking about and that I have been talking about as well, but just maybe a comment on labor and wages. I feel really good with how we have been able to manage that. The fact that we have had very high retention of our team has helped us as well to keep our labor cost within a good framework ultimately and driven by the digital automation. As mentioned before, we managed to drive the productivity that you have seen as well in our numbers. So, on the labor side and wages, I feel really good. When we talk about the delivered product cost, which is ultimately raw materials, freight/logistics and technology, dispensing equipment and all of that that we are bringing to our customers as well, that’s what we mean. We delivered product costs and that you see in our numbers that represent roughly a third of our sales. Overall, I wish you were right, Vincent, that it would turn negative. It will not in ‘23. The question is only, so how much is it going to ease. As mentioned a little bit earlier on the call, we had an overall increase of delivered product costs of 27% in 2022. We had a further increase of 9% in the first quarter of this year. So, better than the increases we have seen in the past, but still an increase. And I hope that in the next two quarters, this rate of increase will ease, but we do not expect that it’s going to cross the zero line to become negative in the quarters to come. And well, when it comes and if it comes earlier, Vincent, will take it. But this is not what we are seeing right now.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Scott Schneeberger with Oppenheimer. Please proceed with your question.
Scott Schneeberger:
Thanks very much. Good afternoon. Christophe, I think let’s go to the pest category, one segment, two questions. The momentum has been really, really strong there. We have seen margin expansion. Some of the reference in the releases is about innovation and competitive advantages. I was hoping you can elaborate on that a little bit. And the second part of the question is, it was cited unfavorable mix was one of the headwinds in the segment? I am just curious if you could share a little bit about what that means. Thank you.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Scott. You know that the other segment is a little bit of a weak combination of things because you have our pest elimination business, we have our textile care business in there, and we have our colloidal technologies business. Three business stories that have nothing to do together, but at on a whole part of one same segment for simplicity reasons. So, when we talk about the mix, it’s the growth mix of those three businesses that are very different. Colloidal is very related to microelectronics, which is very different than what we do in textile, which is very different than what we do in pest elimination. But the biggest business by far in that segment is pest elimination, which is doing extremely well. It’s an unbelievable team with great positions on the market that delivered 14% growth globally, 19% in North America. That’s been a great journey over the past few years. It’s true today, and it’s going to be true tomorrow. The big reasons for that as mentioned are our great team, great position in a few markets where we have very good strong positions. We are very focused on commercial. So, we have no residential business, as you probably know, as well in there, so a very pure play in what we are doing here. And in terms of innovation, well, without going too much in detail here, we have millions of traps that we need to serve, obviously in the world in order to get the job done well. You can imagine that there is a lot that we could automate in here with the vast capabilities that we have in digital in the company. That’s a primary area where we could improve the work we do and making sure that we send our teams whether it’s truly something to do and not just to go and check in places not knowing if there is some pest activity as well in that location. So, combining the two great business, great performance, great positions with the innovation, especially in digital capabilities that we have I think the pest is not only to a great here, but an even better future with all that’s being done. So, a good contributor of the performance of the company for ‘23.
Operator:
And Mr. Hedberg, there are no further questions at this time. And now I would like to turn the floor back over to you for closing comments.
Andy Hedberg:
Thank you. That wraps up our first quarter conference call. This conference call and the associated discussion slides will be made available for replay on our website. Thank you for your time and participation. And I hope everyone has a great rest of your day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today’s teleconference. You may disconnect your lines and have a wonderful day.
Operator:
Greetings, and welcome to the Ecolab's Fourth Quarter 202 Earnings Release Conference Call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions]. It's now my pleasure to introduce your host, Andy Hedberg, Vice President, Investor Relations for Ecolab. Mr. Hedberg, you may now begin.
Andrew Hedberg:
Thank you, and hello, everyone, and welcome to Ecolab's fourth quarter conference call. With me today are Christophe Beck, Ecolab's Chairman and CEO; and Scott Kirkland, our CFO. A discussion of our results, along with our earnings release and slides referencing the quarter's results are available on Ecolab's website at ecolab.com/investor. Please take a moment to read the cautionary statements in these materials, which state that this teleconference and the associated supplemental materials include estimates of future performance. These are forward-looking statements, and actual results could differ materially from those projected. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are described in the Risk Factors section in our most recent Form 10-K and in our posted materials. We also refer you to the supplemental diluted earnings per share information in the release. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Christophe Beck for his comments.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you so much, Andy, and welcome to everyone. Our team delivered a strong fourth quarter, and honestly, even slightly better than I would have predicted. The milder winter in Europe certainly helped, but most importantly, our team executed very well in a macro environment that was far from ideal. Organic sales grew 12%, with good momentum across all segments. Industrial grew 14%, Institutional & Specialty grew 11%, Healthcare & Life Sciences got back to growth, delivering 7% organic, and Pest Elimination remains very strong, growing 10%. Volumes outside Europe remained stable year-over-year, while our total pricing continued to accelerate from 12% in the third quarter to 13% in the fourth quarter. All this contributed to a strong 14% adjusted fixed currency operating income growth even as we experienced the expected peak in delivered product cost inflation, which reached 43% over the last two years in the fourth quarter. This led to adjusted EPS getting very close to last year's $1.28 EPS, while mitigating $0.10 of currency headwinds or 8 percentage year-over-year headwind to adjusted EPS growth. Since the initial impact from the war in Europe, we have delivered consistent operating performance improvement quarter after quarter. And as mentioned during the last earnings call, this is the path we expected to stay on for the quarters to come. We're entering '23 with a reasonable level of confidence. While we would have lost most of our $1.3 billion of earnings in 2022 to cost inflation, we have rebuilt almost all of it within the same year. This demonstrates the true earnings power of our value proposition and the strong momentum we have in margin rebuild. Most importantly, our shift to offense, which is where Ecolab is at its best, is also showing some very encouraging signs of progress. Our net new business pipeline reached record high at the end of last year as what we offer. Water, energy and labor savings while delivering the best and safest outcomes in the industries we serve around the world continues to grow in importance to our customers. And we expect this trend to continue to strengthen. On the other hand, our view on the macro environment remains unchanged. We still expect inflation to remain high well into the year, interest rates to move higher and have an increasing impact on demand in most markets, and geopolitics in Europe, China and now in the Middle East to remain unpredictable. Nevertheless, we feel ready. In '23, we, therefore, expect to deliver double-digit adjusted operating income growth and adjusted earnings growth that keeps accelerating towards our low double-digit historical performance. This includes an approximate 7% year-over-year unfavorable earnings headwind from higher interest expense and FX in 2023. For the first quarter, we feel even more confident and are ready to resume quarterly guidance. We expect our strong top line momentum to continue and to deliver adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of $0.82 to $0.90 compared to $0.82 a year ago. This includes an approximate 15% year-over-year earnings headwind from higher interest expense and FX. And finally, while this is a period of caution, we have a positive outlook on where we're headed. Over the last two years, our expertise grew as we focused on supporting our team and on developing strong new innovation. Our retention rates remain high as we protected our customers from supply shortages. Our margin started to recover as we drove pricing in thoughtful ways, while increasing customer value, helping to drive a strong acceleration in operating income. We remain prepared for softening market trends in Europe by accelerating the productivity improvements we had planned for future years. We are adjusting Institutional to winning the new reality, and we're beginning to reposition Healthcare for profitable growth. as we promised. We will also keep investing in our major engines of high profitable growth like water that delivered 14% organic sales growth in the last quarter, and Life Sciences that accelerated to 18% in Q4. Additionally, Pure Lite, we started its expansion exactly as expected with new capacity coming online, helping to drive a very strong acceleration in sales, with operating income margins north of 30%. We remain good stewards of capital by continuing to invest in the business, increasing our dividend, reducing our leverage and returning cash to shareholders as we've always done. And most importantly, with the best team, science and capabilities in the industry, we're ready to grow our share of high-quality $152 billion market, and our future has never looked brighter. I look forward to your questions.
Andrew Hedberg:
Thanks, Christophe. That concludes our formal remarks. As a final note, before we begin Q&A, we plan to hold our annual tour of our booth at the National Restaurant Association show in Chicago on Monday, May 22. If you're interested in attending or have any questions, please contact my office. Operator would you please begin the question-and-answer period?
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from the line of Tim Mulrooney with William Blair.
Timothy Mulrooney:
Good afternoon, Christoph, Scott and Andy. Thanks for taking my questions. So the first one, unsurprisingly, on gross margin. I mean, they were down year-over-year, but that contractions continued to narrow for a few quarters now. Based on what you're seeing in your pricing outlook and inflationary cost inputs, when would you expect gross margin to inflect into positive expansion territory? And the same question goes for OI margin given some of the productivity gains that we're seeing.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Tim. So let me start with what we've done in 2022 because margins, gross margins and OI margins were our number one focus for the full year. And as I've mentioned in my remarks as well, so we were facing headwinds that were equivalent to our net income, so close to $1.3 billion. And we've been able to rebuild most of it within the same year, so which is really showing the earnings power that we have as a model and as a company. So I'm confident that we will rebuild our margins to where they were, and we will expand from there as we've done many times in our history as well. So if I look at our OI margin in Q4, they turned almost positive. They were slightly still down in the fourth quarter. So that's a good sign, obviously, of where we're trending. Our OI growth, organic, was up 10% as well. So if we look at the trajectory, we're in a fairly good place. So if I look at '23, we have some good momentum. Pricing keeps accelerating. Productivity is in a good place as well, and we'll see what happens, obviously, so with inflation. Q1 should be a continuation of the OI growth, which means that OI will keep improving as well in the first half. So I think that it's going to turn positive in the first half of '23. And gross margin will probably follow in the second half of the year. It's not going to happen on July 1, but it's going to happen sometime in the second half.
Timothy Mulrooney:
Got it. Very clear. Thank you. Just as a brief follow-up, I saw an announcement recently, you're launching a consumer retail product line with Home Depot, I think. Can you just talk about what drove that decision to expand into this channel? And what the margin profile looks like if it's materially different than your institutional margins?
Christophe Beck:
I would love to, Tim. So first, it's not a consumer brand. It's a brand that's aimed at pros as their Home Depot also calls them. It's mostly cleaning contractors. That's the vast majority of the customers buying this range, which is an end market that we never really addressed in the past because we go through service and distribution as we've done so for 100 years. So it was a white space, basically for us, again, focused on pros, not really on consumers. We have the best partner ever with the Home Depot to do that as well. So we'll see how big it's going to churn, but we're quite bullish about what that could deliver in the years to come.
Timothy Mulrooney:
Got it. Thank you.
Operator:
Next question comes from the line of Seth Weber with Wells Fargo Securities.
Seth Weber:
Hey, good morning everybody. I wanted to ask about the new cost program. How should we think about the cadence on that flowing through? And more importantly, are those savings meant to be permanent? Or will those costs come back if volumes get better?
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Seth. Maybe just a few comments from me and then I'll pass it to Scott, who will give you a little bit more details on that. I'd like, first and foremost, to say that, for us, productivity is an outcome of momentum. So sales, innovation, pricing, this is the best way, obviously, to drive productivity, as we've done over the past few years, and we'll continue to do it as well in the future. Now to the programs, it's really so to focus on individual businesses or markets, as we've disclosed, our Europe program. So during the last quarter, and now to be more focused on two businesses that we need to address, Institutional because the market has changed. We're in a good place, but market has evolved, and we need to evolve here, and Healthcare because we need to bring that business back to profitable growth since it's been a challenge, so for many, many years. But I'd like to pass it to Scott to give you some more color on that.
Scott Kirkland :
Yes. Thanks, Christophe. Thanks for the question, Seth. So just getting to your question about the pacing of the program. And when I talk about the program, I'm talking about the combined $175 million savings program, which includes the announced program we talked about in Q3 as well as the expansion that Christophe talked about, which includes Healthcare and Institutional focus. So the pacing of that $175 million I would expect about 3/4, 75% of it in 2023, and then the remainder in 2024.
Seth Weber:
Okay. And is it -- it sounds like those changes are meant to be permanent. So not volume -- if volume comes back, you wouldn't expect those costs to come back then?
Scott Kirkland:
Exactly. And as Christophe talked about on Institutional and Healthcare, this is stuff that we're doing on those specific businesses, targeted those businesses. And then on Europe, it's really cleat we had been thinking about for quarters and years to come. And so yes, we will expect to retain those savings.
Seth Weber:
Right. Okay. Thank you. And then just a quick follow-up on the Purely. I mean, can you just are the capacity additions done there at this point? And I'm just trying to understand like what the run rate of that business really looks like today? Thank you.
Christophe Beck:
Yes, maybe I take that question, Seth. So for the most part it's done, but it's a continuing story. We will be max, as I've mentioned as well in the previous quarter, so a couple of years down the road, again, which is out of a good problem because it's a business that's growing really fast. So it's not going to be done forever, thank God, by the way. But what we've seen in Q4 has been a very strong acceleration of sales. We didn't have pro forma reporting so I don't want to get too much in detail here, but it's been so strong double-digit growth, which is good with margins north of 30%. So the trajectory that we've seen in Q4 is kind of a good indication of what we expect for the future or the near-term future.
Seth Weber:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of John Roberts with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.
John Roberts:
Thank you. Did the surcharge come down in Europe with the drop in energy prices? And do you have any plans to merge the roll the surcharge, I guess, into the base price at some point here to get back to a simple pricing structure?
Christophe Beck:
John. So two parts, a few questions. So first, the surcharge has not come down since we started it on April 1. So generally, so far, so good, no change here. And the second part of your question, yes, we are progressively emerging as much as we can of the surcharge into traditional structural pricing. It's not going to be a 100% game. Every region is in a different place. You mentioned Europe. Every customer is in a different place as well. But generally, we're trying to get everything in traditional pricing going forward.
John Roberts:
And then on the Pro So Clean program with Home Depot, will those be identical products to what you distribute through Cisco and others? And will the Ecolab salespeople service customers who buy through Home Depot?
Christophe Beck:
So two parts in your question as well here. So the first part, those are different products than what we distribute or through distribution like Cisco. They're really made for smaller cleaning contractors. Those are not concentrated products. Those are ready-to-use products. So for the most part. So they're different, but really so adapted for their needs at the right price point as well. So no real competition with anyone else out there. And second part of your question, there will be no service to those products. It straight all consumer products as well. But knowing as well that those cleaning contractors sometimes become bigger as well. And those ones who might be shifting towards a service program at some point, which is what we do with Cisco as well as they have their own line like Keystone that we do for them, a non-service, and when customers become bigger, we start to service them. So it's really finding ways to approach every part of the market out there.
John Roberts:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Josh Spector with UBS.
Joshua Spector:
Yes, hi. Thanks for taking my question. I'm curious if you could talk about your volume expectations in the first quarter. And you mentioned in your prepared remarks, you were surprised some of the performance in the quarter. I wasn't sure if that was volume or something else you were talking about?
Christophe Beck:
Yes. Josh, so not surprised. It was in Europe, we were expecting worse situations like everybody else, actually. So the milder winter has been a less negative news generally so for Europe. And we'll take. And I'm not taking it to the bank for '23. We know that in the months to come, the geopolitical situation on the eastern front in Europe could change quite dramatically, but I'm not going to make any prediction in here. We'll take the trajectory as it is right now. But generally, so for the whole company, what you've seen in Q4, with volumes so fairly stable, excluding Europe, is what I'm expecting more or less in '23 as well. I think the environment is going to soften generally with interest rates going up in the U.S. and in Europe. That's the whole intent of rising interest rates, obviously. But the shift that we've made to offense a few months back, as I've mentioned, so it's driving some very positive results in terms of new business, which, I think, should mitigate the further softening of the demand out there. So what we've seen in Q4, I think, is a good indication of what we could see in '23.
Joshua Spector:
Thanks. And just a follow-up on the cost reductions, and specifically institutional. I guess when adjusting to the current environment, I mean is that restaurants and takeout or something different? And what does that mean in terms of volume recovery potential?
Christophe Beck:
Great question. So Institutional is in a good place. As a business, we love that business. That's where we came from. It's a highly profitable business. We have great position. And I think it's going to be a great business for the future as well. So here's the situation. So I would say it's our north of 19%, so which is good. Our margins are not there yet, which is the opportunity that we have we need to adjust. Now the market has changed because of the return to office, because of what you're saying as well, the people are ordering online, using takeout as well much more than they did before, it's translating to the dine-in traffic, so people sitting in a restaurant down 30% versus 2019. That's a fact that we all need to live with. It's not the demand reduction that we are seeing in our own business, but it has gone down. So we have the same amount of work because we have a similar amount of customers out there for a demand that is slightly lower. So we need to adjust for that. So what we're doing is doing two things. On one hand, and we started that over the past 12, 18 months, it's not totally new. We're just accelerating that program right now. On one hand, it's to have a dedicated sales organization that drives new units and increased penetration, and the second service organization that drives productivity in order to reduce our cost structure as well, and that's where our program is directly focused on.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Manav Patnaik with Barclays.
Manav Patnaik:
Thank you. Good afternoon. Christoph, maybe if you could just help us with your the price increase and also the raw material increase assumptions you made for '23. And then the 13% in the fourth quarter is obviously very strong, like how sustainable is the key is that versus whatever you're expecting for the [indiscernible]?
Christophe Beck:
Well, two parts of your questions. So first, the delivered product cost inflation outlook, and then pricing, which obviously both are driving our margins. Starting with the market that we can't influence, obviously, but the way we look at it from our perspective in 2023, it will keep going up, but at a lower rate than what we've seen in 2022. So it's not that our delivered product cost is going to get cheaper, it's going to increase less fast than what it did in 2022. So that's the first part. And obviously, things can move one way or the other depending on what's happening in the world. But that's the middle of the road that we've taken. Inflation staying high as a rate for longer well into 2023, as I've mentioned as well during the past call. Now on the pricing piece, we remain focused on pricing. We will have carryover in '23 coming so from '22. We expect half of it, so to be strictly carry over into '23. And we will keep pricing further as we've always done as a company, and we'll keep doing going forward in order to recover and expand our margins. Wait will net out, we will see, but that's how we're estimating basically our sequential progressive earnings improvement quarter after quarter into '23.
Manav Patnaik:
Okay. That's helpful. And then you talked about often couple times in the call. Just the cost reductions that you're making, which categories, I guess, are you doing the headcount reductions? And I guess the question is more tied to, are you beefing up your sales force had a faster equip maybe?
Christophe Beck:
So when we talk about the beefing up our sales force, they're not all created equal. We have the high-growth businesses like Life Science, Purelite Hightech, those ones are clearly being fueled, and we add people, we add investments for those ones because we know it's driving so high profitable growth. And we have, on the other side of the spectrum, other ones where we need to do some work. Healthcare being one of the examples because it's $1 billion business, that's not making much money as we know. So we'll have to work on cost efficiencies, including in our sales structure as well, but all done with a long-term view of building profitable growth business. So when we talk about cheap to offense, this is, by far, the number one priority that we have as an organization for '23. It's about new business, Manav. You're familiar with that, and we had some very good results in Q4. It's about innovation. The Home Depot that we talked about is a good example as well and fueling the high-growth businesses, as I just mentioned. So it's what we're really good at. It's what the organization loves doing. And while we do that, we'll stick as well, so new to pricing because we need to get our margins back to where they used to be and expand further, and third, we will address those programs, as mentioned. But in a real surgical way, this is not going to be our main priority in '23.
Operator:
Next question comes from the line of Mike Harrison with Seaport Research Partners.
Michael Harrison:
Hi, good afternoon. Christophe, I was wondering if you could give a little bit more color on how you're thinking about the earnings cadence in 2023? You talk about getting to an EPS low double-digit growth rate later in the year. But if I look at your guidance for Q1, the top end of that range is already kind of a 9% to 10% growth rate. So maybe just help us understand how you expect the year to play out. And maybe what are some of the key drivers that could lead you to be maybe towards the higher end or lower end of that outlook?
Christophe Beck:
So a few parts to your question. But generally, no change versus what we said, what I said during the third quarter call, and now in our release and in my remarks as well in the fourth quarter. The way we look at the outlook hasn't changed. We've decided to provide a formal guidance for the first quarter because we see pretty clearly what's happening, or more clearly than what we've seen in the past. We're not providing formal guidance for the full year yet. It will come at some point, obviously, here, but it's two parts, so for Q1 and for the full year. Now as I've mentioned, so we expect continued sequential improvement as you've seen as well in '22 by the way. So Q3 was a nice improvement versus Q2. Q4 was a nice improvement versus Q3. And Q1 is going to head in the same direction of being a further improvement as well, and that's what we're providing with the range. That's going to continue in the quarters to come, driven by the momentum that we have, the pricing that we've done and we'll keep doing, obviously, the productivity that we've done and we'll keep doing as well so going forward, which will lead to an operating income growth that's going to be in the double-digit range, which will drive so operating income margin turning positive sometime in the first half and the gross margin some time as well in the second half. That leads to an EPS improvement quarter-after-quarter, keeping in mind that we have headwinds in FX and interest, $0.30, as we've mentioned, half of it in the first quarter as well. So you will see continued improvement quarter-after-quarter. And then the question, when do we get to the low double-digit traditional Ecolab performance? I said during the last call, it's going to happen sometime during the second half with everything I know today, everything I see today, I think that's probably going to happen in the fourth quarter.
Michael Harrison:
All right. And then a quick question on the Water business, particularly the downstream portion. I was just hoping to understand the additives impact that you called out in the prior year. Were those sales kind of onetime in nature? And I guess is that the main reason that volumes aren't looking better in that downstream business as we're seeing some improvement in refinery utilization rates?
Christophe Beck:
That's exactly right. You gave the answer. It's one time in nature. It's depending on where the crude is coming from as well, so sometimes they need additives and sometimes they don't need. That's not under our control, that's our customers' control whether they need additives or not depending on where they're buying the crude from. On the other hand, the water business in general is doing really well. So it's close to 2.5% volume in that business, a 14% total growth as well in the fourth quarter. So water is in a very good place, downstream being this special case in additive, as you've mentioned, with the one timers.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.
David Begleiter:
Thank you. Christophe, just on your cost inflation in '23. Is it primarily wage inflation and for raws this year? Are you expecting raws to be actually down year-over-year for you guys?
Christophe Beck:
No, we don't. Dave, we expect, as mentioned before, that our costs are going to keep going up as they did in '22, the rate is going to be lower what we've seen -- the rate of increase is going to be lower than what we've seen in 2022, but our delivered product cost is going to keep rising in 2023. The wage part is a minimal part of it. It's going to contribute to an increase in cost. That's always the case every single year, obviously. So that's not exactly material, but that's going to go up as well and all parts of the outlook that I described before.
David Begleiter:
So on that note, which raws are you seeing the most inflation right now year-over-year and through the rest of the year, just some raw materials specifically?
Christophe Beck:
We buy 10,000 different raw materials. So that's going to be hard for me, David, to go in all details. But the truth is that most of them keep going up, some are more extreme than others. The caustic in Europe, went up 90%, for instance, lately. So those are things that we need to deal with. And everything else is between 0, slightly negative, but nothing much negative, 200% plus like the caustic take that I mentioned before, so being close to the 100% here. So not an exact answer to your question, but it will be hard with the thousands of customers -- of our commodities that we're buying out there.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.
Jeffrey Zekauskas:
Thanks very much. Historically, Ecolab has raised prices about 1% or 1.5% per year in that its rate of inflation and costs has been pretty low. But over time, there's much less commodity production in China, and domestic producers of chlorine and caustic soda are operating their businesses differently. So as a base case, are your expectations that annual price increases for Ecolab are no longer in the 1% to 1.5% range, but maybe now we're more 2% to 3%? And your customers understand that, if that's true?
Christophe Beck:
It's a great question, Jeff. The short answer is, we can deliver more pricing than what we've done in the past. We've learned that over the past few years. And our teams has built as well so new capability during that time because we had to, and we wanted to do it in a way that was thoughtful and smart with our customers as well. And the fact that our retention rates have remained almost unchanged during that remarkable time is a good indication. We've gained customers during that time, and we keep gaining customers. The big difference beyond the capability that we are improving within our team, Jeff, is the fact that we've become much, much better at documenting the value, the savings that we are providing our customers with our service, how much we can deliver for them in the years to come as well. We've become much better at that. We can document it. We can share it with customers. We can make sure that we align on those numbers as well, and we have a discussion ultimately on what's our share of that savings that we have delivered for our customers. It's been at the core of the way we've been selling for 100 years. We've never brought it to such a high level than the past 18 months, and that's going to help us get more pricing in the future. What's going to be the exact range, Jeff, I don't know yet, but it's going to be higher than where we were before.
Jeffrey Zekauskas:
And maybe quickly for Scott, are you -- it looks to me like your inventories are maybe $150 million too high. What will working capital be as a source of cash in 2023?
Scott Kirkland:
Yes, Jeff, thanks for the question. We certainly have seen throughout the year, working capital increased in both because of inventories as well as just because of the sales growth with this very high pricing. And again, we expect higher pricing next year relative to history, as Christophe and you had talked about. And so the inventory was, again, very specific decision as we dealt with the supply chain -- supply chain constraints around the world, and to make sure that we can get products to our customers, help our customers and with that made a very intentional decision. So now as we've seen the supply chain constraints ease a bit, then we will start working our inventory in DOH levels down. And so certainly, I wouldn't expect the same level from inventory in 2023 as we head in 2022. But at the same time, we are going to continue with having very high sales growth, and so you will have some natural drag there.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Christopher Parkinson with Mizuho.
Christopher Parkinson :
Thank you so much. Christophe, you hit on a little bit on the volume trends in the water segment. I was wondering if you could just parse down a little -- go down a little bit more between just the trends in light, heavy and mining, and how you see those evolving throughout the year? Thank you.
Christophe Beck:
So it seems like your question is focused on the Industrial segment here?
Christopher Parkinson :
Right.
Christophe Beck:
Good. So generally, industrial is in a good place, not because the market is booming, and we know that interest rates are going to soften the demand. So that's our base case of saying our general demand like-for-like same-store sales is going to go down. So we will need to drive our own growth through new business innovation, in new end markets and so on, as we've done as well in the past. Industrial is in a very solid place, in a very good trajectory in terms of margins as well. So it's doing that balancing act of making sure that we can drive pricing, getting the right margins driven by value, as I mentioned to Jeff as well before, while we drive the new business with the shift offense, which I like a lot because it's ultimately where our teams want to focus the time. It's where we are best at and what we love most doing. So generally, industrial is going to keep being in a good place and some quarters will be a little bit lower in volumes and some will be a little bit higher, but generally in a very good place.
Christopher Parkinson –:
Just a quick follow-up on Pest Elimination, it seems like your market share gains, I mean, obviously, coming out of COVID is a bit difficult, but it seems like your market share gains are beginning to reaccelerate. Can you just confirm that and talk about how your innovation in that segment is going to further drive, and whether or not you're interested in further M&A? Thank you.
Christophe Beck:
It's a great business. It's been a great business for a long time, and I'm a fan of that business going forward. I can't comment on the M&A side, obviously. But generally, it's a business that has done very well during the COVID times and has done very well in the years after that as well, a very nimble business, very strong leadership team, unique market positions as well, and we see that in the 10% growth that they've delivered in the fourth quarter as well. And I expect them to continue to do so. When I think in terms of innovation here, they're starting to provide disinfection services for their customers as well, which, I think, is going to be a very promising proposition. It's a good complement to what our teams are doing so right now as well. So strong business, with strong margin, with the highest return on invested capital because there's almost no capital involved, obviously, in that business, then driven by good innovation for the future. So great story that's going to keep staying great.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Ashish Sabadra with RBC Capital Markets. Proceed to your question.
Ashish Sabadra:
Thanks for taking my question. I was just wanted to drill down further on the first quarter EPS guidance and follow up on a prior question that range seems pretty wide. What are the key factors which takes you to the top or the bottom end of the range? Is it more volume, raw material or below-the-line items?
Christophe Beck:
It's a good question. So, for Q1, the range we provided is reasonably consistent with what we've done in the past when we were providing guidance as well. The inflation component of the delivered product cost is the timing that we cannot manage. Obviously, that's market depending. That's probably the main driver for the minimum or the maximum of the range as well in here. But we're getting close to the end of the first quarter, obviously, as we speak. So, we have a reasonable view on how it's going to end. But in a month, a lot of things can happen. Last year, I was pretty confident in the first quarter and the way it started. At the end of February, we had one month to go, and we had to deal with that. It's those external factors are driving ultimately the range that we're providing for the first quarter, as for every quarters in the past.
Ashish Sabadra :
That's very helpful color. And then good to see that strong momentum in the business as well. Maybe just a quick question on the National Restaurant Association. I was just wondering, from a preview perspective, can you provide any color on new innovations that we can potentially expect at that event? Thanks.
Christophe Beck :
It's a great business, as mentioned before. We've been in that business for 100 years. Today, we've been successful. We have great positions. We are a very close partner to most of the restaurant and hotel companies around the world. So, I'm very bullish about the future of that business. That being said, as mentioned before, we need to adjust as well because the market has evolved from dining in a restaurant versus taking out from a restaurant as well. We need to adjust. We've done that in the past. We need to do it today. That's going to take some time, but we're going to get in a stronger place as well after that. And in terms of innovation, I think the most important for Institutional is the overall program of Ecolab Science Certified because it's one way of bringing all the solutions that we have, all the innovations that we have for our customers and to really drive full penetration. It's good for us, it's good for the customer, and it's good for the guest ultimately because that's the way that they are the most protected from whatever that can happen, and at the same time, making sure that they have a good experience being in that hotel, that restaurant or that retail store as well. So, if I had to pick one, that would be the most important one.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets. Proceed to your question.
John McNulty:
Thanks for taking my question. So, on the Healthcare and Life Sciences business, when I look at the third quarter, you kind of made some comments at the time if this is not acceptable. And literally one quarter later, the segment had earnings that were double. I guess how much of that would you attribute to the Purolite capacity getting unlocked versus some of the changes that you're trying to enact with the sales force, the team, the cost cutting, those types of initiatives. Because it's such a dramatic move, I guess, I'm trying to understand it a little better as to how -- what drove kind of that big improvement?
Christophe Beck :
So, two things, John, and very different stories, obviously, so in that segment. Life Science has been in a good place for a long time. They were just lapping against very high numbers during the years prior as well. So, it was more of a year-on-year comp than anything else. And Life Science, as mentioned before, is back to our 18% growth, driving very good earnings as well as they did prior during that comp was an issue and back ultimately to their traditional trajectory. So, life science in a very good place, which you see fully in Q4, and you couldn't see fully in Q3. Second, Purolite, as mentioned many times, so we were capped in terms of how much we could produce until Q4, which limited the growth by definition because we couldn't produce the products that we could sell ultimately. That has created a bump, obviously, in Q4. It's not in our organic numbers by definition, since it's an acquisition, and it's the first year. It's going to change as of Q1. And then you have Healthcare, totally different story. I like the fact that they're turning slightly to positive growth. The fact that they have made some money, but I'm not getting overly excited with that. It's one quarter, and it's not a dramatic change in that business. On the other hand, I like a lot the efforts that are being made by that team to really drive it back to the performance that it should be from a growth and, most importantly, from a margin perspective. The program we've announced is part of it that will help, obviously, the cost structure. But at the same time, we know that we need to improve our offering. We need to make sure we focus on the programs that make most sense as well for our customers and for us. So, it's still a long road ahead, but we will get to the right place as I've committed to that.
John McNulty :
Got it. And then thinking about the Industrial segment and China. You had lockdowns in, but you had the virus kind of ripped through the country, and that business of yours doesn't tend to be overly economically sensitive, but it is sensitive if plants have to close. I guess how much of a pressure was that in the fourth quarter? And how should we think about how that may snap back?
Christophe Beck :
First, China represents 4% of our global business. So, it's hard to be material like Europe would be in our results. We have a good position in China. Our Industrial business is a very strong business. What we do is something that customers and government likes a lot as well. It's about clean water, safe food, preventing infection. It's obviously very important for all of them as well out there. We've had a decent performance in '22 in China, in Q4 as well. So, it’s positive growth. It was kind of in the mid-single range in China during the fourth quarter. And we’ll see how Q1 is exactly happening. There’s the new year that’s happening during the quarter with the shutdown and reopening. That’s going to be a bit of a messy quarter in China in Q1, but ultimately, I think we’re going to get back to a good place once this kind of a volatile period is behind us because what we do matters and our team is really strong as well over there.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Shlomo Rosenbaum with Stifel. Proceed to your question.
Adam Parrington:
This is Adam on for from of Rosenbaum. What tax are you seeing for 2023?
Christophe Beck :
Hi, Sam, you talked about the tax, right? I'll give it back to Scott, who is much better than a about that.
Scott Kirkland:
Yes, I will cover off on that. Thanks for the question. I expect the rate for 2023 to be slightly higher than this year just due to sort of geographic mix, but right around, call it, 19%.
Adam Parrington :
Okay. And how should we think about free cash flow in '23 in light of the restructuring items related to the expanded cost savings program?
Scott Kirkland :
Yes. You should think about the free cash flow in 2023 much like we did this year in terms of our historical conversion. Certainly, from a pacing perspective, Q1 will always be lighter, but I would expect the free cash flow for 2023 to be right in that mid-90s conversion on net income.
Operator:
Next question is from the line of Rosemarie Morbelli of Bally Funds. Proceed to your question.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
Thank you. Good afternoon everyone. One on top -- so we are talking about -- first of all, congratulations on a great quarter and a great year. But we talked about the challenging economic environment currently, and you are beginning to see it. Now what you see if you compare it to what you saw prior to the last recession, are those signs indicating a recession or just a slowdown from where you stand?
Christophe Beck :
It's hard to tell. I don't have a clear opinion on whether they're going to be hard landing, soft landing, recession, no recession. We're seeing some softening in the demand of individual customers, so a like-for-like or same-store sales demand from our customers. That's not true in every segment, obviously, but the indication that its softening is there, even though it's very minimal. So, what we've seen here feels very traditional versus what we've seen in the past. And the shift to offense, which is the typical Ecolab way of responding to it, is going to be the best tool we have to mitigate against that.
Rosemarie Morbelli :
Can you tell whether it is -- will demand slow down or whether it is actually destocking?
Christophe Beck :
It's probably a combination of both, especially in industrial segment, for hotels and restaurants, they don't have much inventories, distributors. So, it could be the case. Everyone is becoming a bit more cautious. So that has an influence of it. exactly how much, I can't tell, but it's definitely not helping. So, you have softening of straight demand, reduction of inventories as well at the same time. Even saw a slight impact on the rate of demand. But so far, nothing dramatic, and I feel good with our ship to offense approach because getting new business, driving penetration, getting innovation in the market, well it's what we're good at.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners. Proceed to your question.
Kevin McCarthy:
Good afternoon. How would you apportion the $175 million of targeted productivity savings between the Institutional and Healthcare segments?
Christophe Beck :
So, let me give you just a few comments, and then I'll pass it as well to Scott. But as you've seen, half of the overall program is in Europe. That's what we've communicated. Well underway on this one. I like the progress that the team is making over there. And the balance of the overall program is mostly Institutional, with Healthcare getting its fair share. But maybe any more comments, Scott?
Scott Kirkland :
Yes. No, not a lot to add there, Christophe, exactly that. Certainly, the year program will impact other businesses as well. But certainly, Institutional will have the largest portion of the overall $175 million.
Kevin McCarthy :
Okay. And then secondly, if I may, for Scott, if we go back a quarter or so, my recollection is that you anticipated higher pension expense in 2023. Is that still the case? And if it is, how large might that headwind be?
Scott Kirkland :
Yes. We do expect some modest headwinds, but we're talking in the sort of $0.05 to $0.06 range. So not overly significant.
Operator:
The next question is coming from the line of Steve Byrne with Bank of America. Proceed to your question.
Steve Byrne:
Thank you. If you had to estimate what your raw material costs are to purchase today versus -- so these 10,000 products versus what their average cost would have been in the fourth quarter, what would you estimate that sequential change to be? Now that's just purchasing the products. What would you also estimate the average number of, say, months that raw material is purchased versus when it flows through cost of goods?
Christophe Beck :
So, we don't buy any spot price or product at spot price to begin with. So, it's usually contractual. There are some exceptions, but it's not material so it's up, generally, it should be less than a 5% range.
Steve Byrne :
I'm sorry, I didn't follow that. You mean what is the less than a 5% range? I'm trying to assess whether there has been a sequential change in your raw material costs?
Christophe Beck :
During which -- I want to make sure I understand your question.
Steve Byrne :
From just the last quarter to where we are today?
Christophe Beck :
Between Q4 and Q3. So overall...
Steve Byrne :
Q4 and where we are today, I mean are you seeing anything in recent weeks that is…
Christophe Beck :
Okay. Got it. You mean today in Q1. The trends, as mentioned before, they keep going up. So just to be very clear. So, in the third quarter, our total costs, as mentioned, were up 30%. They were up in Q4, a little bit less than that. And in Q1, they will be up a little bit less than what we had in Q4, but still up. Did I answer your question like that?
Steve Byrne :
Well, I see the year-over-year trend, you're starting to lap higher costs and thus that maybe as part of that decrease. But there's two things here. Our raw material cost is actually starting to deflate. Are you seeing cost deflation? And then how long does it take before that flows through cost of goods because I'm sure there's some of your outlook is just the lag that it takes for the rows to flow through COGS.
Christophe Beck :
So, to the lag question, it takes a quarter or two to get through the system generally. Not every product is created equal in here, but I want to be very clear that the increase that we see in Q1 is a net increase, which means that the cost of our delivered product cost is clearly going up as well in Q1 versus what we saw in Q4 in dollar terms as well. So, the cost of what we buy keeps going up, albeit at a lower rate of increase than what we saw in the past few quarters.
Steve Byrne :
Okay. And then maybe just one on a potential end market opportunity for you. A lot of industrial companies are getting sued because the products they're selling contains some PFAS. And it's not because they're making stuff out of PFAS, it's in the water. Is that an opportunity for you? Do you have expertise in taking these really, really minute levels of PFAS out of water?
Christophe Beck :
Yes. We're probably the most advanced company in the science of water, in mastering water, in managing water. So PFAS is an opportunity that we've been looking at for quite a while. The demand hasn't been as clear as we would wish so far. So, it's something that's going to come at some point, which will be most probably something interesting for us, like microplastic by the way, as well. So, the technology, the science, we have it, we'll be ready when the market is ready to use those solutions.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Proceed to your question.
Vincent Andrews:
Thanks. I just have one question left here. In your Downstream segment, you talked about particular strength in the quarter in petrochemicals. And I was just wondering if you could bridge that with the fact that in most cases, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, the petrochemical assets were running at very low operating rates.
Christophe Beck :
Yes, we've shifted what we do for petrochemicals, so towards water management, energy footprint reduction, cost reduction, which I think the team did exactly the smart move. Our customers are looking for solutions to reduce their environmental footprint, while reducing their cost as well at the same time. So even though the utilization rates are going down, so to your point, our business is still in a very healthy place. And I think it's going to keep being good for the years to come.
Vincent Andrews:
Okay. Thanks very much Chris.
Operator:
Next question is from the line of Scott Schneeberger with Oppenheimer. Proceed to your question.
Scott Schneeberger:
Thank you so much. Good afternoon. Following up on an earlier question on the cost savings program you guys shared on Institutional versus Healthcare breakout, I'm just curious, it was originally in Europe, but when you announced in the third quarter and now let's spend to other regions. So, first part of the question, just curious, is this mostly global non-U.S.? How involved is the U.S. with regard to these cost savings plans? And then also, Scott, I guess, specifically for you on this topic, you're going from $80 million savings to $175 million, more than a double with this incremental announcement, yet the costs incurred to enact only go up by about half as much as what it originally cost for the enactment. So just curious how you're able to basically get more leverage off the second iteration? Thanks.
Christophe Beck :
So, two parts of your question. I'll let maybe Scott to answer the cost versus savings first, and then I'll build on your question, U.S., non-U.S. So, Scott, first?
Scott Kirkland :
Yes. The split of the savings, as you pointed out, certainly, the first program, and this is very consistent with what we've experienced historically with programs where the cost to implement these programs is higher in Europe and then less so in the U.S., just due to the nature of the environment.
Christophe Beck :
And maybe to build on that to your question, outside the U.S., it's -- the vast majority is in the U.S. And those are programs we've been working on for quite a while. As mentioned before, so Healthcare is a business that have committed to bring to the right place at the right time as well. And that's the first step in that direction. And what we've announced is mostly in the U.S. Same for Institutional. This shift from dining in to take out is a shift that has happened mostly in the U.S., and that's where we want to adjust as well. But I want to be very clear as well that those programs are kind of a surgical way of improving our businesses. The vast majority of our margin and earnings improvement as a company is really sort of keep driving new business, getting pricing right, innovation and productivity as well, while the program is helping us do surgical work where we truly need it in a short period of time.
Scott Schneeberger :
Great. Thanks. And a quick follow-up. You've addressed working capital a bit and free cash flow, just curious on CapEx levels this year versus the past and what a normalized level revenue perhaps is a good way to think about that? And going one step further, where the free cash flow might be utilized this year? Thanks.
Scott Kirkland :
Yes, sure. I'll talk -- I'll start with your CapEx question and then get to the sort of the capital allocation question next. So, this year, we're at about 5% of sales, which is at the low end of sort of our historical range. Certainly, a couple of years prior to that, below that. And I would expect, in 2023, to get to that sort of close to the middle of that historical range of 5% to 6%. And then as I talk about capital allocation, certainly, we completed our $500 million program share buyback program this year and continued, and we'll be on our 31st year of increasing dividends. And between the two of those, returned 100% of our free cash flows to shareholders, over $1 billion in 2022. Going forward, I would expect to continue the dividends increase, but continue our consistent principles, which is, first, investing in the business, which includes M&A as well as increasing our dividends, as I mentioned, and then with excess cash looking at share buybacks.
Operator:
At this time, we've reached the end of our question-and-answer session, and I'll turn the floor back over to Mr. Hedberg for closing remarks.
Andrew Hedberg:
Thank you. That wraps up our fourth quarter conference call. This conference call and the associated discussion slides will be available for replay on our website. Thank you for your time and participation, and I hope everyone has a great rest of your day.
Operator:
This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.
Operator:
Greetings. Welcome to the Ecolab's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Release Conference Call. At this time, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Andy Hedberg, Vice President, Investor Relations. Mr. Hedberg, you may now begin.
Andy Hedberg:
Thank you. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Ecolab's third quarter conference call. With me today are Christophe Beck, Ecolab's Chairman and CEO; and Scott Kirkland, our CFO. A discussion of our results, along with our earnings release and slides referencing the quarter's results are available on Ecolab's website at ecolab.com/investor. Please take a moment to read the cautionary statements in these materials, which state that this teleconference and associated supplemental materials include estimates of future performance. These are forward-looking statements, and actual results could differ materially from those projected. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are described under the Risk Factors section in our most recent Form 10-K and in our posted materials. We refer you to the supplemental diluted earnings per share information and release. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Christophe Beck for his comments.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Andy, and welcome to everyone. In Q3, our team delivered another strong quarter, with steady double-digit organic sales growth of 13% and total pricing that accelerated from 9% in the second quarter to 12% in the third. Industrial grew 16% organic, with 15% pricing, and Institutional & Specialty grew 12% organic, with 10% pricing as market stabilized. The Other segment, led by Pest Elimination, continued on its strong trajectory with 13% organic and 7% pricing, and Healthcare and Life Sciences with year-over-year comparisons finally stabilizing, and with Life Sciences clearly leading. Most importantly, accelerating pricing exceeded continued substantial delivered product cost inflation, with the net benefit expanding significantly since the end of the second quarter, which helped further ease year-over-year gross margin pressure. This, along with increased productivity gains, led to renewed positive growth in fixed currency operating income with nice gains in the Industrial, Institutional and Other segments. All in all, a clear and further step on our journey to fully recover our margins and get back to strong and steady earnings growth. With this clear commitment to continuously improve earnings performance, quarter-after-quarter, we have been preparing for an environment where inflation will remain high for longer and interest rates will impact demand. This is especially true in Europe, where the war and the energy crisis are impacting demand and global energy costs. In my view, this is just the beginning, with inflation in Europe at 11% as of yesterday, and natural gas price is 60% higher than a year ago, which is the equivalent to $180 per barrel of oil today with future pointing towards $230 by the end of this year. More importantly, we're taking early action, as we take a realistic view of what's ahead and we continue to expect earnings growth to progressively improve, but at a moderate pace than previously anticipated coming out of Q2. Over the past three years, Europe has become a very strong, successful and critical market for Ecolab, with steady growth, profit margin improvement and the right team to strengthen our market leadership positions. We’re therefore entering this European winter with confidence, confidence is not built on hope, but the momentum, actions and exceptional execution led by a great team. We're in a unique situation to accelerate our performance improvements as we've launched a new initiative that will lead to $80 million of annual savings when fully implemented, helping to partly mitigate the negative impact towards short term and improve longer-term performance. This, along with accelerating pricing, new business and productivity gains, is expected to deliver a strong acceleration in operating income growth. The sequentially improving operating performance is expected to be offset by unfavorable impact from currency translation and interest expense, resulting in fourth quarter adjusted diluted earnings per share approaching last year's $1.28. Now more broadly, and with pricing and productivity work showing strong continued momentum and now fully in execution mode, we've clearly shifted our primary focus to offense. We've accelerated new business generation to gain more share. We’ve sharpened our attention on customer value creation to improve their total operating costs and importantly, protect our pricing in the long run. We've increased our investments in select breakthrough innovation to help customers save more water, energy and cost when they need it the most, especially in Europe. And we're prepared to accelerate Purolite growth with new capacity coming on line as we speak. This will help us unlock our large order backlog and expand proprietary technologies across high-growth, high-margin end markets in life sciences, nuclear power, microelectronics, and lithium extraction for EV batteries. Being back on offense, while staying on price execution and productivity is good for Ecolab. This is where we are at our best and what we love doing most. Looking ahead, we do not expect the global environment to improve anytime soon, but it's in times like these that our growth model demonstrates its strongest resilience, and our customers need us the most. We will, therefore, remain laser-focused on exceptional execution to enter next year in a position of strength, with strong double-digit organic sales growth, total pricing getting further ahead of inflation and productivity work mitigating the impact of the energy crisis and the war in Europe. We're now in a position to deliver earnings growth that progressively aligns with our strong historical double-digit growth performance. And this, for me personally, remains my core objective. We have all it takes to win, short term and long term. Our $152 billion total available markets keep getting bigger, with customers increasingly needing our solution to reduce their total operating cost and water and energy usage. Our pricing and productivity work provides us with a firm runway to recapture our historical OI margin and drive towards our long-term 20% OI margin objective, helping to drive significant earnings power as inflation eventually eases and our value delivered keeps rise. And our leadership team, now together with Darrell Brown, as Chief Operating Officer and my trusted partner, has never been stronger. This is why I'm more confident than ever about our future and our ability to deliver superior long-term performance for our customers and our shareholders. I look forward to your questions.
Andy Hedberg:
Thanks, Christophe. This concludes our formal remarks. Operator, would you please begin the question-and-answer period.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And our first question is from the line of Manav Patnaik with Barclays.
Manav Patnaik:
Christophe, I just want to clarify the comments around progressively improving towards double-digit EPS growth. I was hoping you could elaborate that a bit more? And is the headwinds in that comment primarily on the margin and, I guess, European side at the moment, or are you anticipating like a broader U.S. or global recession in that, too?
Christophe Beck:
Good question, Manav. Thank you. It's mostly Europe, but it's also the macro view. And that's our assumption, which might be overly realistic. If I may say that inflation is going to stay high in 2023, that the dollar will remain strong as well, interest rates might impact demand as well at some point. But most importantly to your point, that Europe is going to have a tough winter. So, we've been improving our performance quarter-after-quarter from Q2 to Q3, expecting the same as well for Q4, and leading towards the double-digit historical growth that we've had in the past as well sometime in 2023, that we can have really an improvement that's steady quarter-after-quarter, mostly driven by steady growth, which has been so really strong over the past few quarters and will remain as such and pricing, that's going to keep to strengthen as well over the quarters to come as inflation hopefully, stabilizes and goes down at some point.
Operator:
The next question will be coming from the line of Tim Mulrooney with William Blair.
Tim Mulrooney:
I know there's concerns about softening Europe and FX headwinds. But based on our math, it still seems like the number 1 determinant for EPS growth is still around gross margins. So, my question is, assuming no more significant spikes in raw materials and based on what you expect for pricing, when would you expect gross margins to begin to expand year-over-year? Is that most likely sometime in the second half of 2023? Any directional guidance would be helpful.
Christophe Beck:
Yes. Thank you, Tim. So with the assumption, obviously, that inflation remains high for 2023, as mentioned before, that the dollar remains strong as well, and that's Europe. So, I'll get through its winter as well. I would expect gross margin to expand in the second half of 2023 and improving from now to then. If you look at general margins for the Company as well, and it's important to note that as well. So between Q2 and Q3, the margin pressure has been easing as well. So, we had 270 points down in Q2. We had 180 in Q3. And most importantly, if you look at Industrial, which is an interesting bell weather because that's where you have 2/3 of the inflation pressure, if I may say, well they improved from 340 down in Q2 to 130 in Q3, and will keep improving in quarters as well to come. And if you look back in 2020, Industrial, which went through a similar cycle, not that extreme, had great OI improvements as well. So during 2020, that's a good indication of what's going to happen in '23 and what's going to happen across our businesses as well.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.
David Begleiter:
Christophe, in healthcare, margins are a little bit lower than we expected. Anything driving that downturn in margins you saw in Q3 in healthcare?
Christophe Beck:
Thanks, David. Healthcare, I think, has reached the low point in Q3. And now, we could see the trends coming back up where surgeries are starting to get back to normal levels. We could feel that over the past couple of months. Inventories as well of COVID-related products are kind of melting, which is good as well. And most importantly, so pricing moved from 3% in the second quarter to 6% as well in the third quarter, and we keep improving as well in the quarter to come. So, I think we're turning the corner with the lowest quarter in the third quarter in healthcare. But let me be clear, as I've always been, I don't like the performance of that business. That's been true for quite a while as well. But I'm absolutely committed to resolve it over the quarters to come and '23 is going to be a transformational year for healthcare in many ways.
David Begleiter:
And just on the cost side, in 2023, why not assume more cost relief overall in your businesses if demand is lower globally?
Christophe Beck:
You're talking about healthcare or...
David Begleiter:
Overall. I believe you're assuming that costs hold in there next year despite some lower demand. Why not -- why wouldn't costs be lower next year, demand has softened globally?
Christophe Beck:
It's a good question, David. So, we're taking probably an overly realistic view, but it's basically saying that the high delivered product cost that we have today will remain for 2023, which is why when we can improve our gross margins and operating margins as well, which, by the way, have turned positive as well, in the third quarter, it's already a remarkable achievement, if other things that inflation is going to ease and go down during 2023, while our margin leverage will improve dramatically as it always does. But I'm not counting on that for now.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Seth Weber with Wells Fargo.
Seth Weber:
I guess, I was hoping to drill down a little bit more on the institutional business. Whether you've seen any kind of -- whether you saw any deterioration kind of through the quarter, just in response to the high price increases, whether that's starting to have any impact on customer demand? I guess, I'm just trying to understand what's happening more specifically in the institutional business, and then just any specific color on Europe institutional that you could share?
Christophe Beck:
Yes. Thank you, Seth. Actually, we're not seeing an easing of demand, which is good in Institutional. Honestly, I was hoping to see even more recovery as well, so in that market, which is kind of not really happening as fast as many were expecting as well. So, when we look at the growth we have in Institutional, it's all self-made. Today, we're ahead of pre-COVID levels, which is quite remarkable when you think that just a comparison point that in the U.S. the dine-in traffic, so people sitting in a restaurant is down close to 30% versus pre-COVID level as well and our sales are ahead of 2019. So, I like the growth that we have. We don't see a softening of the demand, certainly not because of pricing, which is good by the way as well in Institutional. So, so far so good, but we'll need to drive even more demand through new business, penetration, innovation. And as well, so keeping in mind that this industry, we'll be facing even more labor challenges going forward, especially on the cost side, but also food cost and energy costs are going to go up. So, what we're doing for customers is exactly what they need and we'll need even more in the quarters to come, which is reducing their cost while serving their guests the best possible way. So, positive with Institutional, I like where they're going. And I think we're going to see good things. But at the same time, I'll just conclude on one point. We know it's an industry that is in quite a big transformation, which I think that is an opportunity, and we will keep transforming our own business as well so to adapt to what the customers need the most.
Seth Weber:
That's helpful. Thank you. And then maybe just a quick follow-up on the Purolite capacity adds. Can you just frame for us the pace of that and just the order of magnitude that you're looking at on Purolite capacity additions for this year and next year? Thanks.
Christophe Beck:
Yes, great question. So a different topic. Obviously, on Purolite, as I mentioned as well all along. So we are building capacity expansion, and it's coming on line as we speak in the U.S. and in Europe, so on both continents as we had planned as well. So in 2022, it took us one more quarter to get to that right place. It's really to do it well, to do it the Ecolab way as well. And we've been obviously saw squeezing that business because supply was limited, so we could not obviously supply more than what the plants could produce as well at the same time. So when I look a bit ahead, so Q4 is going to be a very good quarter for Purolite. We have almost all orders filling the whole quarter, so there's no big risk in that quarter. And for 2023, if we're going to like Q4, I think we're going to love 2023 with that business.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of John Roberts from Credit Suisse.
John Roberts:
In your December quarter guidance, what areas do you expect to be down in volume, either year-over-year or sequentially?
Christophe Beck:
We're not expecting much softening, John. So in the fourth quarter, we were expecting that in Europe, things would be better, which would ultimately help us get even better in terms of volume. That's not going to happen. I might be overly realistic in Europe. But I think that the war in Europe, the impact as well on energy cost on all European economies as well over there is going to have a major impact. I hope I'm wrong, but that's going to be the bull's eye of the volume challenge. But overall, we're going to keep steady double-digit growth as a company and volume will remain quite stable as well versus what we've seen in Q3.
John Roberts:
Okay. And is the -- is variable debt a priority to pay down, or do you plan to keep a portion of your debt variable since interest rates are hard to forecast?
Christophe Beck:
Let me give that question to Scott.
Scott Kirkland:
Yes. Hey John, it's Scott here. Yes, we've got about 25% of the debt is floating right now. And so, certainly, the way rates are going, we'll expect some upward pressure on interest as a result, but not looking to pay off any debt in the near-term future and making sure that we have optionality as we look forward. And certainly, we have some debt coming due at the end of next year, and so we'll opportunity that based on sort of status of the market.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Josh Spector with UBS.
Josh Spector:
Just now that you have a couple of quarters under your belt with the surcharges in place, just wondering if you can comment. Are those generally working as planned? And as oil’s moved down and gas has been really variable, how good has that been matching variability versus what you've seen?
Christophe Beck:
Hi Josh, it's worked really well. Actually, we didn't know how it would be working when we started with the energy surcharge on April 1st. We have never done that as a company, so let alone on a global basis, all businesses all at the same time. It worked out really well. Some of the learnings for us, some customers who preferred having it directly in a structural pricing because it was easier for them to handle that. So, from a system perspective as well, and others chose the energy surcharge as a viable part as well to it. But it's covered very nicely, so dollar for dollar, what we were expecting. And most importantly, it's a tool that we can use as well. So going forward, with whatever could happen, like natural gas in Europe, it's been highly variable. As you've seen, it's on the lower side right now, still 60% higher than a year ago. It could double very easily over the next few months. Having such a tool that we can engage very rapidly is going to be a huge advantage for us and our teams.
Josh Spector:
So, I guess, to follow up, if that's worked well, and I mean, correct me if I'm wrong, but an answer to the prior question, you talked about not really a significant amount of additional volume weakness. You're talking about additional pricing, trying to go after new wins. Why wouldn't earnings be up sequentially?
Christophe Beck:
So, the short answer here, Josh, is looking at the operating income, so in Q3, it's turned positive for the first time since the war started in Europe, which is a good sign. It's going to keep improving nicely as well in the fourth quarter and going forward in '23. Then you get the FX impact, which is something I mentioned as well in the previous quarter that impacted us down for the third quarter. That's the core of the story.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Christopher Parkinson with Mizuho.
Christopher Parkinson:
Hey Christophe, could you just circle back to just two quick comments on global healthcare and then Purolite. On healthcare, can you just give a little quick update on the U.S. side for elective surgeries and what that means for your outlook for 2023? And on the Life Sciences side, do you feel that the growth expansion opportunity of Purolite is well understood? And are margins in that business still where you are anticipating, or should we anticipate startup cost? Just any additional framework you could help us out there would be really appreciated.
Christophe Beck:
Yes. Thank you, Chris. So a few questions, obviously, in there. So starting with Purolite. I'm looking at next year, exactly as expected. So, the second year of the Purolite acquisition, very promising. We're going to love what we see in 2023. It was hard in '22, obviously, to get everything lined up, to get the integration really well done, to get the city as well online with everything the Ecolab way. We are at that stage now, and that's why I see the unlock in Q4, so happening very nicely in 2023. So, being as good as we thought and potentially saw even better. So, a very good story. This is true for biopharma and this is especially true for our industrial applications as well, as mentioned in my opening, in nuclear power, in microelectronics and in lithium extraction as well, ultimately more demand than we ever thought as well from that end of the business. So Purolite heading in a very, very good direction. Life Sciences, your second question, is in a good place. We'll see as well in Q4 getting back to its usual trajectory and getting back in 2023, with double-digit top line and bottom line growth. So Life Sciences is in a very good place. It's always been -- it's been the past few years, the comparisons year-on-year have been a little bit complicated sometimes. But underlying no change, extremely steady. And then your last point on healthcare, it's in the works. This one, as mentioned, not happy with the performance of that business. I haven't been happy for a very long time. By the way -- and I see point for that business improving sequentially in the quarters to come. But I want to be perfectly honest in here, it's a radical change that's expected in that business. The old way of running that business is not going to work with me so going forward. So, we've made commitment that we're going to address it one way or another.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets.
John McNulty:
So, I guess, the first one would just be on delivered costs. Can you help us to understand how much they went up in 3Q versus 2Q? And maybe give us some color around the baskets -- the bigger baskets, whether it's transportation, labor or raw materials?
Christophe Beck:
Yes. Thank you, John. It was roughly the same type of pressure in Q3 versus Q2, which is 30% year-over-year. And since we had 10% last year, it's a 40% delivered product cost increase over two years. So if you want to count, the overall inflation, which is quite a bit to say the least. To your question on the basket, it's a bit evolving with oil price, so easing a bit. Natural gas went up during the quarter and eased a bit towards the end of the quarter. And then, you have cost tick in food and beverage and institutional that's going up in a big way as well at the same time. But overall, kind of the same in Q3 versus what we saw in Q2. And that's why I'm quite proud of what the team has delivered over the last five quarters. So Q2 last year, when inflation started to go up, well, the team has overcome over $1 billion of incremental cost with pricing that's going to stick for the future, which is good short term, but it's especially good for the long term because we will be protecting that pricing going forward.
John McNulty:
Got it. Okay. No, that's helpful. And then, I guess you mentioned in your opening comments that when you look to 2023 with the help of pricing, you expect to see double-digit top line growth. Just when you think about the price catching up to raw materials, et cetera, does that mean that you have double-digit EPS growth in the cards as well, or is that still a little bit of a question mark?
Christophe Beck:
It will happen during ‘23, during the second half. So most probably what's most important for me is making sure that pricing gets way ahead of delivered product costs, and we've done that quarter after quarter. Second is making sure that our operating income keeps growing. It's been growing in the third quarter, which is a good sign. It will be growing even more in the fourth quarter, and it's going to keep growing as well in the quarters to come, in 2023. Then you have the impact on FX and interest, obviously, that's mitigating that. We'll see how it all plays out in 2023. But as long as I have business momentum strong, that I have pricing getting way ahead of delivered product cost and that we have productivity in a positive direction as it is today as well, while it's going to lead to operating income growth that's ultimately going to lead to EPS growth as well sometimes in the second half of next year.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.
Jeff Zekauskas:
On slide 12 of your deck, you say that your delivered product cost inflation was 30%, but your SG&A is only up, I don't know, 14%, and product and equipment cost of goods sold is up a little bit faster than that. Can you reconcile those numbers? How do we go from 30% to 14%?
Christophe Beck:
So 30%, well, is the increase of DPC, as I mentioned as well before, which is very similar to what we had in the second quarter. But SG&A, which is not obviously in our delivered product cost went up 14%. It's mostly labor cost that we have in there. We don't have more people in the third quarter versus the second quarter as well, which is important. So, that's why SG&A productivity ultimately is improving as well. And one point I should have mentioned as well in our SG&A, Jeff, we have also commissions for our salespeople and with much higher pricing, they get higher commission. That ends up as well in our SG&A. I hope that helps.
Jeff Zekauskas:
In looking at different chemical companies, like if you look at the petrochemical companies, I think that utilization rates for those companies maybe have gone from the mid-80s to the low-70s. And if you look across many industrial areas, what you're seeing is a tremendous liquidation of inventories. So, I'm surprised that your industrial business isn't feeling any of that for the fourth quarter because I would think your customers would be operating at much lower levels of utilization and water treatment chemicals should be a function of utilization? Is there some other factor going on?
Christophe Beck:
You totally are right. So, if we look at pure same-store sale demand, so from one side, same applications from industrial, we see softening of that part of the demand. So, if we see industrial doing so well, and especially in places like in downstream as well, it was north of 20%. Well, it is driven by new business -- it's driven by increased penetration, new solutions for those same sites as well. It's innovation and it's pricing, obviously, which is going up so quite significantly. So, you're absolutely right with -- demand for one site is easing, and we’re feeling that. And we compensate it with new business. And that's why the new approach on offense, as I mentioned, so in the previous call well, is so important because we'll have to face those potential headwinds as well.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Ashish Sabadra with RBC Capital Markets.
Ashish Sabadra:
Christophe, I just wanted to circle back with the comment that you made on the first half versus second half earnings growth, about double-digit earnings growth in the second half. I was just wondering, even in the first half, we should see earning growth, right, maybe not in the double-digit range. And I was wondering if you could elaborate further and see like with this combination of first versus second half, could we still get to a double-digit earnings growth for the full year in '23? Any color will be helpful. Thanks.
Christophe Beck:
Ashish, it's very early. We usually never talk about next year before the publication of our results of the fourth quarter in February, but I chose intentionally to share with you early enough what we’re seeing, and things are going to evolve, obviously, in the next 3, 4 months until we get back together. But it's really trying to share with you what we're seeing, what we're assuming. And our assumptions are really inflation stays more or the same level for the whole next year, that the dollar remains strong as well for most of the year as well in 2023. Same with the interest rate and with Europe getting tougher as well, so in the months to come. How it's going to play out exactly? I don't know yet. And I don't think that anyone knows. But when I know that we're going to maintain our strong momentum, top line volume and pricing. So together, that we will keep expanding pricing as well as we've done in quarter after quarter over the quarter five as well, and that we're going to get some upside from the European program that I've announced as well. Well, I can feel reasonably confident that quarter-after-quarter, we're going to improve as we've done Q2 to Q3, it's going to be Q3 to Q4, and we're going to keep going that path as well in 2023, heading towards this double digit that I mentioned, so in the second half -- sometime in the second half of '23.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Shlomo Rosenbaum with Stifel.
Shlomo Rosenbaum:
Hey Christophe, the volume growth is 1% across the Company, which is I would consider that a little bit low for coming -- still comping off of COVID comps, and still potential for some opening. I was wondering if you could break out the volume growth along the different segments? And how much of that had to do with the inventory stuff going on in healthcare that you have to go through? And maybe just give us a little bit of color on that. And then, I'll have a follow-up.
Christophe Beck:
The biggest element on volume evolution is the year-on-year comparison. If you compare, which is something that we usually don't talk too openly, but versus 2019, which was kind of a stable base pre-COVID influence over the past three years, it's very steady. So the volume trends that we have right now in most of our businesses are continuing the same way as they did in Q2, in Q3 and probably will as well in Q4 with that impact from Europe, as I've mentioned before as well. And to your point of the recovery in institutional, well, the recovery has kind of plateaued on the market in here. So, the number of restaurants or hotels that are available as well out there, so is remaining. So quite flat since the beginning of this year as well. I mentioned early on as well, so the traffic of CD people in restaurants is down almost 30% versus 2019. So, we're basically in that industry in a steady state where there is not recovery. If you see sales going up from our customers, it’s mostly driven by pricing, which has been a big deal, obviously, for them, which means that for us, we need to keep doing two things. The first one is to keep on offense. It's new business. It's penetration. It's innovation, especially with customers needed solutions in terms of reducing the total operating cost and improving as well their quality. And second and last point is the market has changed when I look at where we are today, where are we going to be in 2023, the market of hotels and restaurants especially in the U.S. and in Europe. And for that, we will have to as well over the months to come. And I feel confident that the team is going to do it the right way. But the world we live in now is probably the world that we're going to have in the years to come.
Shlomo Rosenbaum:
And then the next one maybe is for Scott. Just some of the below-the-line items and how to expect -- or what to expect, I'm sorry. Should we expect any other income kind of after 3Q more of a normalized pension income, which you've been getting somewhere around $19 million for the last three quarters. Is that fair? Or does something change with the change in the stock markets? And then you had a $10 million sequential increase in interest expense. Do you feel like -- from where you are right now, this is a relatively -- it should be relatively close to this, oare you assuming that the interest expense is going to continue to step up a lot?
Scott Kirkland:
Yes. I guess I'll first talk on the pension. So certainly I would expect the sort of other income to be pretty similar to Q3 to Q4. But as we go into next year, as you think about the impact on rates, there will be increasing headwinds on pensions as we go into 2023. It's too early to sort of talk specifics, but we'll expect that pension expense to increase. And then, in addition, as we talk to just interest expense, with about, call it, a quarter of our debt being a variable rate. And just given where rate hikes have continued to climb, I would expect that to continue to be a headwind. It will increase in Q4 and similar to pension be a bigger headwind next year.
Operator:
Next question is from the line of Mike Harrison with Seaport Research Partners.
Mike Harrison:
I was hoping that you could talk in a little more general terms about the industrial business. And if you think about recessionary conditions, whether you're talking specifically about Europe or about a broader global slowdown, it seems like some of your markets hold up better than others within industrial. Maybe talk a little bit about some of the pockets where you're seeing some weaker or concerning demand trends as you look into Q4? And what are some of the areas that are holding up better within the industrial business?
Christophe Beck:
Yes. Mike, industrial has been a great story for many, many years. And when we say industrial, it's mostly driven by water, which is becoming something that's even more essential for our customers. So going forward, because of water scarcity, but most importantly because water drives energy consumption which drives cost and which drives as well to the carbon footprint. When I look across the various segments in Industrial, think about it, water is up 14%. F&B is up 40%, downstream is up 22%, and paper is up 19%. So, it's very healthy, very steady, very strong that we have in that whole group. And it's driven by, okay, market that likes what we're doing, which is ultimately driving new business. It's a business that's very strong at innovation. It's a business that's strong in digital technology as well. And that's why pricing is so good as well with pricing that's been up 15% in the third quarter, and we had 12% in the second. And we know that that business, when you look at the margins as well hear have improved dramatically from the second to the third or the margin pressure I should rather say, 340 basis points in the second quarter, down only 130 in the third quarter as well. And we know when industrial gets in the right momentum in terms of pricing and inflation eases, we know that great things happen, both on a margin and earnings perspective as well. So, yes, as mentioned before, to Jeff, some softening that we're feeling in some of the industries, petrochem being one of them for the reasons mentioned as well early on, which we mitigate with new business, with penetration and innovation. So, so far so good, business let’s see what happens in the months and quarters to come.
Mike Harrison:
All right. And then, in terms of the cost program, I was hoping you could give a little bit more detail on maybe the timing of those, the $80 million of benefits, what segments should see the greatest proportion of benefits. And I guess what are the cash costs associated with that $80 million in savings? Thank you.
Christophe Beck:
So, it's all in Europe, as you said, I've been leading that region, years back, leading to turn around over there, so very familiar with that story. And I'm really proud with what the team has done. You maybe remember or not that 10 years ago we had a large business over there that was not growing and that was not making money. Other than that, it was a great place to be. Well when I look at today, well over the last 5, 10 years our growth has been 4% from a CAGR perspective. Our OI has grown double digit over that time as well. And we've moved from close to nothing in terms of profitability to north of 10% in 2021, as well. So a great story that we've had in Europe. I want to make absolutely sure that we not only mitigate the short-term, but most importantly what we are doing is helping us for the long term that Europe can stay on that successful journey. So to your question on where we are going to work the most, it's going to start with supply, security. This is a big deal for our customers. So streamlining our network, making sure that we can have the best cost of delivered product in Europe. So it's going to be the first priority. The second one will be our structural cost as well in our SG&A leveraging as well, so digital automation. Third will be in regional G&A as well leveraging all the work that we have done with the backbone SAP infrastructure over the past few years as well. So, it's really kind of doing things we would have done no matter what for the long-term, but really accelerating these activities in order to get even more on the short term. We would have done it in a more organic fashion in the years to come. And I've decided to do that in the months to come, which is generating so this stream program as we've announced. [Operator Instructions]
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies.
Dan Rizzo:
It's Dan Rizzo on for Laurence. Just piggybacking on what was just said about the cost reduction program. I was wondering if there are other variable costs that you could temporarily take out if things were to get significantly worse in Europe? If there's something you can do there?
Christophe Beck:
We will. Absolutely. So, I've experienced Europe for half of my life. So very familiar with the Europe situation. It's quite extreme with what's happening right now with the war on the Eastern front. It's having an impact on demand. It's having an impact on supply, especially for industrial businesses. And it's having an impact on cost, as we know, as I mentioned as well in my open. So, I may be in the camp of preparing for a pretty tough winter in Europe. I know many people are saying, it's pretty mild right now. We're just early November. Things can change quite a bit in the months to come. And yes, we're thinking about some extreme scenarios as well, and that includes all I've talked about before and, for sure, all short-term measures that we can take. But everything we're doing in Europe and everything we will do is ultimately so leading to better performance, not only short term, but most importantly, long term because that's an important region for us.
Dan Rizzo:
And then, if we think about the North America or the Rest of the World, so things are pretty okay right now, but assuming that as everybody is expecting that there is some sort of recession in the second half of next year. Are you targeting or setting up cost programs that could be implemented there? Obviously, it seems like a much more efficient and better margin region or elsewhere, but I was wondering if there's things there you're looking at if things get markedly worse here in the U.S.?
Christophe Beck:
It could be, but that's all a question of timing. We will not do things that we wouldn't have done over the time. Think about digital automation. Think about ERP implementation. Think about the supply network as well. We have clear plans in order to continuously improve our productivity over the next few years if things turn worse. To your point before, we would accelerate them, and that could lead to some restructuring, but it's really because we would be accelerating our plans we had all along.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Andy Wittmann with Robert W. Baird.
Andy Wittmann:
I guess I just wanted to understand a little bit more about the pricing and the expectations you have for pricing because it seems like a really important variable as we head into next year. With the cost side seemingly evening out, certainly have a little bit of compare on the cost side than the first half. But, it sounds like the second half comparing on the cost side on our current expectations is materially worse. I guess the question that comes to mind is you're filtering through the price increases from the last quarter or two, Christophe. And you're talking about focusing more on gaining share here. Is that to say that there isn't another unusually large price increase in store for your customers sometime in the middle of the next 2 or 3 quarters to recover that? Or how should we be thinking about the next wave of price, if any?
Christophe Beck:
Yes, let me be very clear. Pricing is going to strengthen, especially in the next quarter. In Q4, we're going to keep working on pricing as well in 2023. I'm going to get too much ahead of my skis here. But it's really making sure that we get the right pricing in order to rebuild our margins fully. This is the objective for the team. But as we run a commercial organization, it's kind of leading them towards what's the primary focus. The last five quarters, it's been driving price, and they've gotten over $1 billion over the last five quarters, while driving new business. So primary focused pricing, secondary focus new business. And now, we've shifted that in the third quarter, with clearly is going for offense for all the reasons that we've discussed on that call, being in Europe, the risk in the U.S. or elsewhere as well around the world to really go for new business, to really go for penetration, to really go for innovation, while we keep strengthening the pricing, and that's why I'm saying it's going to be higher in Q4 than it's been in the third quarter as well. And at the same time, making sure that we can maintain most of this pricing as well in the long run because we provide incremental customer value as well over the quarters to come, as we've always done in our history.
Andy Wittmann:
Got it. Could you talk a little bit about how the pricing is affecting customer retention, if at all, in any parts of the business where it's been better or worse received might be helpful information as well?
Christophe Beck:
So far, it's been very good. Our customer retention hasn't changed versus pre-pricing times. But customers are always price-sensitive, and that's why we're taking time to do it really well. We can't compare obviously to a commodity company, a chemical company that's going up and down with the market. As you know, at Ecolab when we go up, we don't go down. The energy surcharge is the only variable that we'll have to manage the right way going forward. But the vast majority of our pricing is structural pricing. And we do that with customers in ways that is good for them, that we create value, which means we reduce the total operating cost that ultimately it's a good deal for them, it's a good deal for us as well, and that we can keep it going forward. But that's real work. And that's why we haven't lost customers more than we used to, pre-pricing or pre-inflation as well, and that we do it very carefully because we want to keep our customers for the long run.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Eric Petrie with Citi.
Eric Petrie:
Could you talk a little bit more about your climate intelligence offering? What kind of technology does Siemens bring to the table? How do you split value and gain share with those industrial customers towards that net zero goal?
Christophe Beck:
Yes, great question. So the simplest way to explain it is we're experts at water management and water reduction and helping customers operate with less water or zero water going forward. There is the other component, which is the energy component, where Siemens is having strong expertise at it. And when we say energy, that's mostly power as well as of our industrial customers. And when we get together, well, we have both expertise, water reduction and power, energy reduction from Siemens. And by bringing our offerings together, we can help our industrial customers to get both water reduction that's leading to power reduction and power reduction that's leading as well to carbon and cost reduction as well at the same time. So, it's a joint offering, it's joint systems that we bring together, and it's digital technology as well that we connect between the two companies for the good of our customers.
Eric Petrie:
And then, circling back to the Purolite expansion, how much EBITDA uplift do you expect on an annualized basis? Is it $30 million to $35 million? Is that in the ballpark?
Christophe Beck:
Overall, so we haven't disclosed that for obvious reasons, but it's going to give us enough capacity for the next two-plus years that we know is going to come. So from the pipeline we have and the current demand backlog that we have right now, and we are already working as we speak on what's required for beyond those two, three years as well down the road because building plans takes some time as well. So ,it's going to be as expected for '23 or even better, and that's going to continue on the same trajectory, in 2024, and we're building the future as well for the years to come.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners.
Kevin McCarthy:
Christophe, how would you compare and contrast your price cost gap by region of the world? I'm wondering where you've made the most progress and where you feel you have the most work to do?
Christophe Beck:
Great question, Kevin. The best is in North America. We have the strongest team. It's one market as well, two countries, the way we define it with the U.S. and Canada. Europe is the toughest, because it's always been the toughest, complexity, a region that’s used to negotiate price as well. But with whom we have very good relationship because ultimately, our value is to help our customers reduce their total cost as well at the same time. And then, you have the rest of the world in between, with probably China being the toughest place.
Kevin McCarthy:
And then, as a follow-up, I want to come back to your price contribution. So, you had nice acceleration to 12%. I think as a base case, you commented that should improve in the fourth quarter. Can you help us in terms of understanding the contributions from base pricing versus the surcharges, you mentioned the volatility in Europe. U.S. natural gas looks like it might actually come down sequentially. And so, I'm just trying to understand the moving parts there. I'd also be curious to hear any thoughts that you might have on diesel. We're hearing more about potential for shortages there. And do you think you're well equipped to recover that through the surcharge paradigm, if it happens?
Christophe Beck:
So, starting with the last part. From a supply perspective, so we feel good about it. We practiced our resilience planning quite a while. Now from a cost perspective, of diesel or other, the fact that we have that surcharge allows us to react fairly quickly, which is very different, obviously, than structural price, which is an agreement for the long term, together with our customers. Now, in terms of structural price versus energy surcharge, as I've shared earlier, it's roughly two-thirds structural, one-third energy surcharge, but knowing as well that the structural part is growing as well, which is good. We want to make sure that as much of the pricing so it can be structured for the long term, backed by true value that we're creating for our customers as well. And it's not the perfect line between structural and energy surcharge because some customers aren't equipped to deal with an energy surcharge and the thing. So let's have that directly in my structural price, which we've accommodated for as well at the same time. But two-thirds, one third is a good proxy.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Rosemarie Morbelli with Gabelli Funds.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
When we look at institutional did quite well, travel has been strong, which I am assuming also translates into hotels, restaurants, cruises, Disney, et cetera. Are you seeing some kind of a decline recently due to inflation or you haven't seen any change yet?
Christophe Beck:
We haven't seen anything yet, but there's no doubt that the cost pressure is starting to impact our customers, not from us, general cost of food, of energy and especially on the labor side. And that's why what we do is becoming increasingly important for them, which is not new, you're familiar with that, Rosemarie, over the years. The harder it gets for the institutional market, the more they need us because ultimately, they can reduce their total operating cost and especially now with the labor shortages. And for us, the biggest challenge that we've had with institutional is that the travel -- the guest traffic, in general, so has been okay, but the service has gone down quite a bit. You probably experienced that going to hotels as well, where service is quite way down or you need to do your room as well to yourself. Well, that means there's consumption of our products as well, which is why it's so important for us to get new customer, new penetration, new innovation. But bottom line, the demand has stayed reasonably stable around the world and across the end markets and institutional.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
Okay. That is helpful. Thanks. And I was wondering, you mentioned lithium as one area using your products. Can you give us a better feel for what from Ecolab is the lithium industry using and then where because it is mostly in Asia Pacific and not yet in the U. S. or Europe?
Christophe Beck:
Yes. Lithium has been a new opportunity that we didn't have on our radar screen, even before we acquired Purolite. And interestingly enough, that Purolite technology allows you to extract lithium from a brine, salt water. There's only one mine in the U.S., by the way, of lithium today, which is in California, which we own with our solutions as well, which is a remarkable solution for customers because it goes through that system, and you can extract lithium at pretty low cost and low energy and low waste as well at the same time. So, we didn't plan for it, but that's definitely a technology that we're planning to use around the world because lithium is kind of booming because it's driven by EV batteries from cars and other products as well. So, this is a new segment that we're getting into that we didn't plan for before we acquired Purolite.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
I am a little confused. I'm not aware of any mine in California. There is a project going on in the Salton Sea, but with no lithium coming out of it. So which mine are you referring to?
Christophe Beck:
I'll ask Andy to come back to you with the exact name. I don't remember exactly the name of that mine in California. That was a deal that was concluded just before we concluded with Purolite as well, and that has evolved nicely in the meantime. But it's a long-term project, which is really promising for us. We'll come back.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Steve Byrne with Bank of America.
Steve Byrne:
Yes. I wanted to better understand this relationship with Siemens. Is it fair to characterize this that you have your customers that you primarily support with water, they might have a completely different set of customers that are more energy-focused. And is this in a way to collaborate where you might pick new accounts on the water side, they might pick up some of your accounts on the energy side? Is that how you would characterize it? So, this is essentially a market share expansion opportunity for you?
Christophe Beck:
It’s a combination of that, obviously, cross-selling, in other words. So, customers we have, they don't we bring into our customers and the other way around as well so for them. But at the same time, it's developing some joint solutions that are adding value for customers because they manage power in a plant, electricity in a plant, something we don't do, but we manage water in a plant. So from end to end, and both are related as well. So continuing our applications is not only good for both of us, Siemens and Ecolab, but is most importantly, so good for our customers.
Steve Byrne:
And just I'm sure you've evaluated this, but do you see any risk that Siemens could become more of a competitor of yours, such as to expand more into water?
Christophe Beck:
No, because this is not an expertise that they have. They're not planning to have expertise in water management, in chemistry, in service that we're providing. And we don't have the ambition either to become an electricity power expert as well for our industrial customers. So, we're in a very healthy place where we work together for the good of our customers with no risk between the two companies.
Operator:
Our final question is from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.
Vincent Andrews:
I guess just one last one for me. Just looking at working capital, I'm wondering whether you'll be kind of getting aggressive on inventory levels in the year-end? And not just because your cash flow from operations, I think, is down about $500 million year-over-year. But also because we've seen amongst a fair number of specialty chemical companies through earnings season sort of a desire to take inventories down to kind of send messages to the raw material suppliers that the raw prices need to come down as well. So, is that something that you folks will be working on?
Christophe Beck:
Let me pass it to Scott.
Scott Kirkland:
Yes, I'll take that. Thanks for the question. As we look at both our working capital and cash conversion, as you've probably seen, the free cash flow has been very strong below last year because of the investments in working capital, both as the pricing is growing, the investments we have in AR, but also the investments in our inventory. And we're continuing to invest in inventory as we look ahead, especially as we look across Europe and just continuity to supply and making sure we can supply to customers. So we do not have specific actions to bring down inventories because for us, making sure we can supply to our customers is most important. But still expect to have very strong free cash flow conversion for the year, and we'll expect that to accelerate as we get into the fourth quarter, getting towards our historical levels around 90%.
Operator:
Thank you. At this time, we've reached the end of the question-and-answer session, and I'll turn the floor back to Mr. Hedberg for closing remarks.
Andy Hedberg:
Thank you. That wraps up our third quarter conference call. This conference call and the associated discussion slides will be available for replay on our website. Thank you for your time and participation. I hope everyone has a great rest of the day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day.
Operator:
Greetings, and welcome to the Ecolab Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Release Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Andy Hedberg, Vice President, Investor Relations. Mr. Hedberg, you may now begin.
Andy Hedberg:
Thank you, and hello, everyone, and welcome to Ecolab's second quarter conference call. With me today are Christophe Beck, Ecolab's Chairman and CEO; and Scott Kirkland, our CFO. A discussion of our results, along with our earnings release and the slides referencing the quarter's results, are available on Ecolab's website at ecolab.com/investor. Please take a moment to read the cautionary statements in these materials which state that this teleconference and associated supplemental materials include estimates of future performance. These are forward-looking statements, and actual results could differ materially from those projected. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are described in the Risk Factors section of our most recent Form 10-K and in our posted materials. We refer you to the supplemental diluted earnings per share information and release. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Christophe Beck for his comments.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you so much, Andy, and welcome to everyone to our conference call. And Andy, welcome to your new role as Head of Investor Relations after 15 years in the industry and 6 years alongside Mike Monahan. In 37 years, Mike has built a legacy of trust, transparency and simple messages. He has built trusted relationship with all of you on the call by listening to you, by addressing your concerns and by building on your ideas in good and in more challenging times. He said openly with you what we were seeing, what we were doing about it and where we were going to keep winning. And in a world that feels like it's getting more complicated by the day, he kept describing our performance, our opportunities and our concerns in simple and clear ways to make your life as investors as simple as it could be. And none of that will change. So on your leadership Andy, we will simply build further on Mike's great legacy. Now to our results. The second quarter concluded as expected while facing 30% delivered product cost inflation and increased headwinds from FX translation. Our global team managed to deliver once again sustained double-digit organic growth by driving new business and by accelerating pricing, both great signs of the real value we create for our customers and our margin growth potential. We almost doubled our total pricing from 5% in the first quarter to 9% in the second as we further strengthened our structural pricing and executed our first ever global energy surcharge with customers around the world in all our businesses in 172 countries in an extraordinary short period of time. We're now exiting the quarter with double-digit sales growth and pricing momentum that's now ahead of delivered product cost inflation, most importantly, with gross margins that have now turned the corner. In other words, we expect to see easing year-over-year margin pressure over the next 2 quarters. We're now in a fortunate position where our #1 strategic priority over the past 12 months has been addressed, getting ahead of inflation. This will now help us fully recover our gross margin over time and expand them even further in the long run. With margins getting on the right track, the time has now come to shift our primary focus to offense. With an environment that keeps getting more complicated, we do not expect the world economy to accelerate. We're, therefore, getting ready for that, too. Our new business is strong, and innovation pipelines are at record levels. Our customer retention has remained largely unchanged, still north of 90%, with the industry's largest and best trained sales force, with the resources and the capabilities to get the job done and serve our customers better than ever, with a business model with over 90% consumable revenue, with innovative technologies and services that are helping customers reduce their total operating cost when they needed it most like right now and a growing $152 billion market opportunity that will remain huge no matter what happens to the world economy. We, therefore, entered the second half of the year in a position of strength, with strong growth momentum and growing share across the board, with inflation and energy costs that seem to keep getting higher, especially natural gas in Europe and in the U.S., with the right pricing momentum to stay ahead of inflation and the right mechanism, if I may say, with the energy surcharge to mitigate spikes of energy costs over time. This shift from focusing primarily on pricing to major share gains will naturally take some time. But as we've demonstrated in the past, it will also lead to strong results down the road. We, therefore, expect overall performance to improve sequentially in the quarters to come. Q3 earnings will, therefore, continue to be driven by strong top line growth, easing year-over-year margin pressure, supported by solid pricing, but in the short term will also be impacted by unfavorable currency translation and potentially softer volume growth as the team shift their focus to major share gain. As a result, we expect Q3 to show a sequentially narrowing decline in year-over-year adjusted earnings per share, including the impact of at least $0.10 of FX headwinds. Now with the total pricing already at low double-digit levels, new business generation to drive share gains, breakthrough innovation and productivity benefits to drive margins, we expect fourth quarter to show accelerated adjusted earnings per share growth, resulting in modest growth in full year 2022 adjusted earnings per share. Now let me conclude my remarks on a more personal note. I love growth, and I hate just as much as you do low earnings growth. This is not we are uncertainly not who I am, except when it's because we've done the right thing, the right way for our future, like keeping our global team and capabilities intact at a very high cost during the COVID lockdowns. Like managing pricing in a way that protected long-term customer retention, like maintaining growth investments in new products, digital technologies and new high-growth businesses to gain market share and significantly increase our opportunities. As intense as it is right now, our near-term momentum keeps building and our long-term opportunities have never been greater. That's why I've never been more bullish about the future of this company. Our $152 market -- our $152 billion market opportunity keeps getting bigger. When infection risk keeps rising with pandemic, with hospital-acquired infection, and we put safety challenges like we've seen lately in baby food production, we need to help our customers. With water scarcity and a warming climate that's hurting businesses and people, we had to help our customers reduce their total water and carbon footprint while reducing the total operating cost, helping to deliver superior long-term performance for them and for our shareholders, which is why I firmly believe that with Ecolab the best is still yet to come. I look forward to your questions.
Andy Hedberg:
Thanks, Christophe. That concludes our formal remarks. Operator, would you please begin the question-and-answer period?
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question is coming from the line of Tim Mulrooney with William Blair.
Tim Mulrooney:
So I'd love to ask you about your share gains and innovation and all that. But I think I've got to stick to the basics at least starting out here. So my first question is about raw material costs, not surprisingly. And then I've got a follow-up on pricing. So Christophe, the last time we spoke, it was your expectation that delivered product costs would be up about 25% in 2022. Is that still your expectation? And can you kind of break that down in between what you saw in the first half of the year versus what you expect in the second half?
Christophe Beck:
Yes, great question. So talking about raw materials. So first, I'd like just to step back, so one step last year. So in '21, we had 10% of delivered product cost inflation, which includes rolls and freight, just to be clear as well on this one. We entered the year '22, expecting 15%. Then you're right, we talked about 25%. And today, we're closer to 30% right now in the second quarter, and we expect that level of inflation close to 30% to remain until the end of the year.
Tim Mulrooney:
Okay. Got you. So it was a little less than 30% maybe in the first quarter, but then -- but 30% in the second quarter and for the remainder of the year. That's helpful. And then now if we layer on the pricing part of the conversation, Christophe, how I guess, net price cost turned into a net positive in June. Can you talk about how you expect for, I guess, what you expect for the price/cost spread, how you expect that to play out through the second half of the year? And what that implies for gross margins moving forward?
Christophe Beck:
Yes, with pleasure. So the 30% as well so that we are experiencing so right now and going forward for the next few quarters as well, just to put it in perspective, so represents $1 billion, of course, that our teams had or will have to overcome so during the year to 2022. And that's why it's been so remarkable that the team managed to get ahead of inflation during the last months of the quarter. When initially, we saw that would happen in the first quarter of the year, the war started then in Ukraine and shifted, unfortunately, one more quarter. Because energy costs went through the roof, we started with the energy surcharge, which worked out really well in the second quarter. We got structural pricing plus energy surcharge kind of well implemented during the last month of the quarter, and that's how we got ahead of delivered product cost inflation so at the end of the second quarter. So when I think about the second half of the Europe, we got the job done. We're ahead of inflation. That will remain for the foreseeable future, obviously, which means that the margin pressure is going to ease over the quarters to come. This is going to be true in Q3. But it is going to be even more true in the fourth quarter as pricing and the energy surcharge together are going to keep accelerating. I talked about low double-digit levels in the second half. And if we assume an easing of the 30% rate of inflation for the next 2 quarters, Q4 should be a very nice margin play, which is why we're expecting as well accelerated growth in terms of earnings per share in Q4.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Manav Patnaik with Barclays.
Ronan Kennedy :
This is Ronan Kennedy on for Manav. Christophe, may I ask if you could just recap the outlook? I know you touched on potentially unfavorable volume growth or growth not accelerating as initially anticipated. Can you just recap what the outlook is for the second half and into '23 from a growth standpoint? And if you are starting to see -- obviously, the inflationary pressures are immense, but are you starting to see some macro pressures as well?
Christophe Beck:
Well, great question, Ronan. So the overall picture for 2022, we were expecting, from an economic perspective, a continuous acceleration during the year, over the past few months, obviously. So the environment has changed. That being said, our own trajectory as Ecolab has remained so fairly stable. So 13% organic growth in the first quarter, 13% in the second quarter and we expect something similar in the quarters to come as well. But it's basically, so having our own views focused on the potential risk of an economic slowdown, all indicators are showing that direction. In our own businesses, it's not obvious yet, but we're not immune, obviously, to whatever could happen in the world out there, which is why, first, we believe in our models being great in that kind of environment, which is very different than the lockdowns of COVID, which was just an industry, so stopping to operate. When we talk of a slowdown, this is something that we're very used to. And we like it because our model ultimately 90% consumable revenues. So that means recurring our promise to customers. It's to help them with premium products, reduce their total operating costs ultimately when they need us even more in those moments. So our model is very well aligned with a potentially slowing environment. And ultimately, that's why, as I've mentioned as well in my earnings calls that the shift from primarily focusing on pricing to primarily focusing on new business will come at the right time as well, which is a shift that we've done many times as well in the past. So overall, an environment that might be slowing down with what we're undertaking, so expecting some kind of a stable momentum in the quarters to come with a potential downside risk that we can manage as well.
Ronan Kennedy :
That's very helpful. And with regards to that shift in focus, I think you had also referred to it as going from defense to offense. What does that entail, that shift to focus on new business wins? And then are there other elements to kind of a downturn playbook that may be different than the approach that was taken during the unprecedented height of the COVID pandemic, where the focus was on, protecting the company, your employees and custom?
Christophe Beck:
Yes. I think that what we're heading towards to today is kind of something that the company has been used to any -- more difficult times over our history. We are a sales organization. We have a sales culture with sales driven, which means that half of our company is driven by 2 things. The first one is new business. The second is price. And since -- it's all about execution, it's important to set for the organization, what's the clear primary priority? Is it price? Or is it new business? While you do both, obviously, at the same time? Well, in the last 12 months with this high inflation that came on us, like everybody else, ultimately, primary focus had to be pricing, and the team got it done. And now it's kind of shifting and saying you focus primarily on your business, while you keep driving pricing. So it's selling new accounts, it's expanding penetration, it's selling innovation, while you get price as well because we create more value as well as. So it's a shift between primary focus from price to new business that we've done over time in our history. It takes a few months, obviously, so to get in gear, but this is something that we're very familiar with. So I'm not worried about that.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.
David Begleiter:
I'm sorry, can you hear me?
Christophe Beck:
Yes, we can hear you, David.
David Begleiter:
Sorry about that, Christophe. Back to the Q4 guidance, Christophe, you're guiding to about 20% share growth. EPS growth from Q3 to Q4, a pretty sharp ramp up. Is it just the additional pricing? Or are there other drivers of that additional price increase -- that additional earnings growth from Q3 to Q4?
Christophe Beck:
It's the combination of many factors. When we think about the third quarter, so to begin with, so it's mostly impacted by FX, the $0.10 that we've talked about. Otherwise, the EPS would be growing in the third quarter. And if you look at Q4, it's going to be the combination of business momentum, so driven by new business, as mentioned before, added to a pricing that's going to keep strengthening together with the energy surcharge as mentioned, so we'll be in the low double-digit territory as well. Our productivity work is going to keep working as well in our favor. And we expect as well a stabilizing of the 30% of delivered product cost inflation rate, as mentioned before. So the combination of all ultimately is playing to the Ecolab model where you see margins enhancement during the fourth quarter. It's not going to be an improvement versus last year, but it's going to be a sequential improvement from Q2 to Q3 to Q4, which, by the way, David is really playing in our favor longer term as well as we rebuild our margins fully and then afterwards even expand that.
David Begleiter:
Understood. And just briefly, of the energy surcharge you announced of 8% to 12%, how much do you actually realize?
Christophe Beck:
It's hard to tell exactly the number. It's part of the 9% or the low double digit for the second half. We estimate that it's roughly 2/3 is structural pricing and 1/3 is the energy surcharge. When we communicate in our press release that's always directional, that's a max and then afterwards, you need to respect agreements with customers, you need to negotiate with customers as well. And some customers have even chosen to have the energy surcharge being included in the structural pricing, which makes the line between the 2 a little bit more fuzzy. But I think that a good guide might be this 2/3 structural price and a 1/3 energy surcharge.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Seth Weber with Wells Fargo Securities.
Seth Weber:
I guess just another pricing question, Christophe. I mean talking about, say, 6% or 7% structural pricing. Can you just give us your view on Ecolab's ability to retain that next year into 2023? I'm not asking for guidance for next year, but just your confidence level and the company's ability to keep that type of pricing next year?
Christophe Beck:
Yes. Thank you, Seth. The structural pricing, I have a very high level of confidence that we're going to keep it. This is what we've done over the last 99 years as a company. So we're not cyclical in terms of pricing evolution. So structural price is going to stick, the way we execute that with customers. The energy surcharge will be more of the question. I don't think that the energy costs are going to come down anytime soon, unfortunately, I may almost say. And maybe one piece of information for you, Seth, is also that our energy surcharge, which was anchored on oil price, Brent that everybody could read, has been complemented, but the natural gas prices as well, which is becoming a bigger issue in Europe and in the U.S. for the same reasons as we know. So it's going to be a combination of oil and natural gas, which is why initially we called it as well, the energy surcharge. How much are we going of keep all that? Whenever the market comes down, I think we're going to keep part of it and some might be given back. But overall, the discussion with customers is driven by how do we build margins on our side, that's our internal discussion, but most importantly with customers is making sure that the return that they get on the investment that they've made in our value gets a positive return, which is EROI. So I feel good about the way we can maintain our pricing that we've executed here. Some might get back, but it's going to be marginal.
Seth Weber:
That's helpful. And then maybe just a quick follow-up on the health care and life science margin was a little bit light versus what we were thinking. I saw some of the call outs in the slide deck and things like that, but is there anything that would prevent the margins there? Is there something that's going on there just structurally that -- the Purolite margin is obviously very high. So we're assuming that margins there get a lot better. Can you just talk about the ramp that we should expect in the health care and life science margins going forward?
Christophe Beck:
Yes, it's really 2 different stories. As you saw life science and Purolite are doing very well. So no issue on that side, and it's been very steady in the past and it's going to be steady in the future as well. Health care is a different story. That's where our challenge lies. Three things that I would mention. The first one is pricing with TPOs takes more time than with customers. That has an impact on margin. Secondly, North America, elective surgeries took more time than expected initially, that's been on and off. So during COVID as we know. So quite a few times, that's where we make most of our money as well, like hospitals do as well at the same time. That has an impact on the health care margin. And third, in Europe, so we still compare to the so-called mega deals with government COVID activities related in '20 and '21, which is also having an impact on the Healthcare margins. But let me be very clear. Healthcare is not where it should be. It's not been so for a long time. There have been some better and some less great times in that business. We focused on it. We need to fix it, and we will fix it.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of John Roberts with Credit Suisse.
John Roberts:
It sounds like base price is up 6% on its way to 7%. What is the base cost inflation that you're seeing? That is, what are costs up excluding energy?
Christophe Beck:
It's a difficult question, David, because when we talk about energy, we don't buy energy directly, as you know. But the way we think about it is 1/3 of our raw material cost is impacted by energy. And again, when we talk about energy, you have oil and then you have natural gas. So what we buy are second or third derivative of that. That's why it's a difficult question to answer here. But I would say one way to think about it, we were thinking 2022 to have an inflation of 15% plus. We are at 30% right now, to a great extent that DPC incremental inflation came through energy following the invasion end of February. So that's maybe one way to think about it. But hard for us to really split the 2, I'd rather focus on the 30% delivered product cost inflation, which is the true number.
John Roberts:
Okay. And maybe a different way to ask about price. But when you started to implement the surcharge WT oil was about $120 a barrel, and now it's $95. And back then, TTF gas was $25 million BTU, now it's $60. Can you help us understand like an average U.S. surcharge has gone down, I assume, because of the WTI drop and the average European surcharge is going up because of the TTF gas increase?
Christophe Beck:
No, because -- so the Brent is still north of $100 right now, which is the same bracket as where we started in April, so during the second quarter. So no change there. And it's not a perfect science as well because if customers were to pay straight math, obviously. So you're in that bracket, and you get 10% to take what we had in the press release, well, that’d be one situation. It's a negotiated number, which means that this one is not changing every month either. On top of it, as you mentioned and as I've mentioned as well earlier on that call, natural gas, is the new game in town. You've mentioned the number in the U.S. going up pretty rapidly and in Europe even more. So basically, where we are is that surcharge in the U.S. kind of unchanged to up because we are still executing more with customers that we haven't concluded yet. And in Europe, we're moving further up because of the natural gas price increases that you've just mentioned.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Josh Spector with UBS.
Josh Spector:
And actually, a similar vein of the prior question. I was curious, just to clarify, is the surcharge essentially in for all customers now? Or is there some percentage that's still being negotiated? And when does -- take effect during the third quarter? And similar to kind of the prior question to an extent, if energy prices go up 20%, 30% into the fourth quarter, you have the surcharge in place, are we going to be talking about that there is a price cost catch-up in fourth quarter? Or do you feel relatively insulated at what you've done has immunized that risk now?
Christophe Beck:
It is not major shock in the system geopolitically, which could happen. If you look at what's happening with Russia and Ukraine today, we should be in a good shape. We are ahead of inflation as we exit the second quarter, as mentioned, and we will stay ahead with increased pricing in Q3 and Q4 and further execution of the energy surcharge as well in the months to come. So both together brings me in a reasonable place for Q3 and Q4 that we will stay ahead and expand as well. So the margin leverage or margin impact that we have on our business. Second, if something happens as well in the world, in Western Europe, especially impacting natural gas, as we just mentioned before, with David as well. With the energy surcharge, we have a mechanism as well that we can fairly short-term change in order to capture more pricing through the energy surcharge. So this is pretty handy, which was what we had in mind when we launched as well that, but was not just to react to what was happening back then following the invasion in February, but also being able to react with whatever could happen as well in the months and the quarter to come. So bottom line, I feel quite good about staying ahead of inflation and rebuilding margins in the months and quarters to come to fully restore and expand even further. And if something happens in the world, it might take some time to increase the energy surcharge, but we have the mechanism to address that as well.
Josh Spector:
And just to clarify, the inflation for the second half, you talked about 30%. What is a 2-year stack of that inflation that you guys are planning for?
Christophe Beck:
The 2-year stack, that was your question, Josh?
Josh Spector:
For the second half, specifically, yes.
Christophe Beck:
Yes. Last year, we had, as mentioned, so we had 10% in Q3, we had 20% in Q4. And you add the 30% of this year itself, that's how you get your stacked 2 years model.
Josh Spector:
So will be at 30% to -- 40% to 50% is how you're thinking about it?
Christophe Beck:
Directionally, that's right. Yes, over 2 years.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Christopher Parkinson with Mizuho.
Christopher Parkinson:
Christophe, a lot of your platforms and services ultimately pertain directly to your customers facing their own inflation, whether it's low temperature warewashing systems and even some stuff around your commercial and water treatment in terms of prevention and obviously facing inevitably rising costs in their own side of things. Can you just offer a little bit more color on your ability to kind of continuously push price just given the environment your own customers earn? I mean has the narrative really changed between the value-added proposition of your products and services over the last year and do customers ultimately recognize that. So just any color on that would be greatly appreciated.
Christophe Beck:
That's a great question, Chris. Thank you. Well, it speaks to our model that you're really familiar with. And our promise as a company has always been best results at the lowest total operating cost which we measure with EROI, which is basically, so how much cost savings versus investment customers are making. And our ambition is to be north of 25% return for the customer in here with pricing in here as well, and we stick as well to that model, the way we're operating with customers today. Usually, we know of the 25%, which gives us as well some margin as well, need to get even further pricing. So, so far, it's worked out pretty well. That's why I mentioned that our customer retention has remained very stable over the past 12 to 18 months. But going forward, focusing even more on EROI will be essential for 2 reasons
Christopher Parkinson:
Got it. And then in honor of Mr. Monahan, I'll make sure I say this correctly. And as it pertains to your pest elimination business, not control, but elimination, I will always remember that, give us a quick update. It seems like things are kind of reengaging there. You're getting a little bit more momentum on specifically North America. It's been a huge focus of your -- your kind of ongoing enterprise selling initiatives. So just can you just help us kind of offer the framework of the current environment and how we should thinking about that in the immediate and longer term now that it seems like you're getting a little bit more -- a little bit more traction in terms of the recovery?
Christophe Beck:
I love the relation to Mike Monahan, that's true. It's pest elimination, unlike competition, that's controlling. You still have mice and rats running around, but you have less than before. With Ecolab, you have none, which is our promise. So to the business in here, pest elimination has been an exceptional business for many, many years. It's been strong during COVID in 2020. It was strong last year as well. You maybe remember it was a double-digit top line growth. It's been expanding its margins as well both gross profit and OI ratio as well. And when I look at 2022, while it's kind of steady eddy, we are in double-digit territory as well in terms of top line growth as well, with very strong margin as well. That's why I don't talk much about pest elimination because the business is doing extremely well, has done well during difficult times and is doing well right now. It's a great team, very well led. And I look forward to even more going forward, a beautiful business.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets.
John McNulty:
Christophe, maybe we can speak to the end markets for Institutional. So I know you're kind of battening down the hatches it sounds like for a potential recession at the same time. I guess I'd be curious to know where your institutional business is relative to pre-COVID. And if there's still some uplift to go there even if we do kind of stumble a little bit into recession, I guess, how would you characterize that?
Christophe Beck:
Yes. Great question. John, Institutional is in a good shape and evolving very nicely. Honestly, I had expected that the market recovery would happen way faster, way bolder. It's not what happened. That has nothing to do with us. Obviously, this is a market question. But when I think about our business Institutional, well, if you compare it to 2019 for instance, which is kind of the base of pre-COVID, we are 5% ahead of 2019. We were 2% ahead of 2019 in the first quarter. So that shows that the business is kind of in a good place and evolving very nice as well. What's most interesting is that we're gaining shares as well to the comparison that we've done so many times as well as for the U.S. restaurants. If you look at dine-in traffic, which means people coming in dining rooms, well, it's down 36% versus 2019. Our business in the same place is down only 3%, which means that we've gained a huge share as well in the meantime. So at the end of the day, we're ahead of '19 in terms of sales in the second quarter. In the quarters to come, 2 or 3 quarters, we will also recover the volume and in the second half of '23, I believe we will recover as well the margins, which is the plan that we had all along. So all in all, in a pretty good place.
John McNulty:
Got it. No, that's helpful color. And then I guess the second question would just be on the raw material front. So your Industrial business, in particular, if I have it right, has a reasonable amount of exposure to like propylene derivatives, things like that. Propylene is off -- at this point, it's off about 25% quarter-over-quarter. So I guess, can you help us to think about that kind of basket and if you're starting to see any raw material relief yet or if it's more just look, these are derivatives, it takes time, but that's still on the come as we kind of look to the back half of the year? Is there a way to think about maybe some relief coming for you?
Christophe Beck:
It's clearly the latter, John. So we don't buy anything at spot prices or there are some exceptions probably. But generally, no, it's all contract based more longer term. As you've mentioned, it's derivatives, second or third of feedstock as well, which means that it takes time to get through the system for us as well, which means as well the spikes are not that high, but it goes higher and stay longer as well so for us. But when I think about Industrial, they've done an exceptional job at pricing. They're ahead of the average, they got most of the DPC delivered product costs impact. Since inflation started in the second quarter last year, they've gotten on pricing, on the energy surcharge extremely well. They're ahead, obviously of DPC as well as they exit the second. They're going to have even higher pricing versus the average of the company. I think they are on an exceptional trajectory, doing really well in new business, in momentum, getting pricing, getting productivity as well. And if you think quarters down the road, we would like what we will see from the Industrial business, which is half of our company. And I'll just -- and on one thing, it's been especially a part of our business where at every inflationary cycle, they've done really good work in pricing and they helped improve the gross margin as well at each of those cycles as we're going forward. So in a way, as hard as it is right now, it's going to be a good story in terms of margin for Industrial going forward.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Ashish Sabadra with RBC Capital Markets.
Ashish Sabadra:
Just wanted to focus on 2 items that was discussed at the National Restaurant Association Show. One was on reigniting the Ecolab certified program. I was wondering if you could talk about how that's coming along? And then obviously, there was a discussion also around the significant pull from customers for digital solutions, next-gen products, if you could comment on that as well?
Christophe Beck:
Yes. Thank you, Ashish. So the 2 points situation hasn't changed much, obviously, since we met a few months ago. Ecolab Science Certified, as mentioned, it has been launched during COVID to support our customers in order to protect their own guests and ultimately, so having more people coming to their restaurants or their hotels. It's kept being a very good story. We've become the leading program in the U.S. It's become stronger as well in the meantime. We're expecting to get in the next few quarters close to $100 million of incremental business, close to 100,000 of locations as well down the road. So it's becoming a major program for us, and for our customers. And ultimately, it's going to move beyond COVID and really making sure that our customers feel safe when they get to their own restaurants as we've talked all along. Now to digital solutions. Interestingly enough, with most of our customers struggling with staffing conditions as we've seen when you go to restaurants, to hotels, to airports or wherever you go, ultimately, our automated solutions for customers are helping them get the same job done with less people as well. Well, this is not only helping them on the staffing side, it's helping them on the cost side as well, which is good now and even more important going forward. So thank god we kept investing behind digital solutions, which, by the way, are helping ourselves as a company, if you look at our SG&A productivity that has kept improving year-over-year and accelerated as well. So during the past few years, this is almost directly related to the work that we've done with digital.
Ashish Sabadra:
That's very helpful color. And maybe if I can drill down further on the volume side of the Industrial segment. Can you just talk about how that business obviously has morphed since the last GFC both on the Nalco front, but also on the core side. And also some of the growth drivers there, particularly animal health and data centers, how those are progressing. So any color on those fronts would be helpful?
Christophe Beck:
What's good in Industrial is that it's very broad-based. All the businesses are doing really well. When I look at water, which is the biggest, and strong growth, food and beverage, downstream and paper. So the 4 big ones, obviously, that we have had are all doing really well. So it's not one business driving the whole Industrial, it's very broad-based. And it's very broad-based geographically as well, which is why I feel confident about that business, especially as well going forward. So in terms of demand, we haven't seen much reduction, if I compare to 2019, for instance, as well, which is the right base because you remove all the noise of COVID as well. In between, there is some noise and variation as well in there. But otherwise, they're pretty steady month after month. We'll see what happens in the months to come with the economic environment, but ultimately, very strong new business. That's going to help them obviously mitigate any softening of demand out there. And second, the pricing evolution is extremely strong as well as mentioned before. So the combination of both is driving a very steady and healthy story for Industrial.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.
Jeff Zekauskas:
You expect the lower earnings per share comparison in the third quarter versus the year ago. You've said that your raw materials are being offset now by price increases. You've got a little bit of negative currency. So does that mean that volumes are about flat in the third quarter year-on-year?
Christophe Beck:
So the key points, Jeff, sorry, you're right that Q3 2022 is going to be lower than Q3 2021, as mentioned, mostly impacted by the FX, the $0.10 that I've mentioned as well earlier. So without that, we would be in positive territory. That being said, I'd like to add 2 points. The first one is we compare to Q3 last year, which was a strong recovery in our institutional market. So ultimately, the volume growth in Q3 will be lower than what we have in Q2 because we're comparing to this reopening post the third or fourth COVID wave that we experienced in institutional. And the last point I'll mention as well, there might be some conservatism as well in terms of volume from my side as well in here. But looking at what's happening around the world, I want to be as well on the safe side. So you have all 3, the FX, the comparison to reopening in Institutional in '21, and there might be as well some caution from our part in terms of economic development.
Jeff Zekauskas:
Okay. Ecolab has maintained its staffing levels since 2020. I think with the idea that the global economy would recover and the restaurant industry would come back and that there would be no strong inflationary effects, but there have been inflationary effects. It has been a slower recovery for the restaurant industry. And it looks like we may be going into a recession. Should you be thinking about restructuring your operations or having a lower cost structure than what you've got now?
Christophe Beck:
We're not planning for restructuring, at least nothing broad-based. You will always have some pockets around the world. We are a large organization operating in many countries around the world. Obviously, not everything is created equal, and we will keep improving our operations wherever we operate around the world. Broad-based, no, nothing major is expected at least with everything we know right now, so from the environment. If you look at our SG&A, as well as over the past few years, we've done some very good progress as well in terms of productivity, and we're going to keep doing that as well going forward, mostly driven by digital automation, which means that with the same team we can serve more customers and do more with the customers that we're serving as well are directly driven by digital automation. Which means that if in the past, our company was growing its team more or less at the same speed as the company was growing, that's going to change in the years to come, not because our model has changed, but because our technology is helping our teams do more with less. And last point, I'd say in hindsight, Jeff, I would do again the same thing. If we would have reduced our team in 2020, when most of our customers did ultimately, well, we would have lost all those relationships. We would have lost all the capabilities and expertise that this team had. We've kept it. This is a huge advantage for us, for our customers in going forward, but our productivity is going to keep improving in the years to come.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.
Vincent Andrews:
Christophe, could you talk a bit about Europe? And I guess I'm less focused on sort of consumer recession-type angles and more just thinking about the energy situation over there and how Ecolab would be impacted if there were natural gas or electricity shortages in the fourth quarter and potentially into the first quarter. Would that do to your own operations and ability to produce or procure raw materials? And what might it do to some set of your -- some subset of your customer base? And presumably, you don't have anything baked in for these risks in the second half guidance?
Christophe Beck:
Yes. This is a great question. So these some I know and some we don't know, obviously. So starting first with our business in Europe, overall, doing really well, growing double digit. It's been very resilient during the COVID times as well. So overall, Ecolab in Europe doing really well. Now to your question of operational resilience, depending on what could happen on the eastern front. We have a very good supply chain team that has been tried years after years when you think about it, so what we went through over the past few years being so natural catastrophes in the U.S. like the Texas freeze or what happened in China as well. So we saw all the lockdowns that we had to go through. We've managed to really supply our customers in remarkable ways around the world in a very difficult situation. So when I think about Europe, our team was there together as well over the last few weeks thinking about the extreme scenarios and ensuring supply during those times. I feel reasonably good about our ability to ensure supply in the case that natural gas would be stopped from Russia, which I guess is the core of your question. The impact on our customers is way harder to answer because obviously, we don't operate for them. So depending on how they're going to do, that's going to have an influence on us. But this is something I can't obviously influence. The only thing we can do is ensure the supply and driving as well new business with existing and new customers as well to try to mitigate that as well as we can.
Vincent Andrews:
Okay. And as a follow-up, you referenced in the back half guidance, you sort of let us knew that maybe you're being a little conservative on the volume side of the equation. Where do you think the biggest risks are to the back half forecast. If it doesn't come in where you think it's going to, what are the 1 or 2 things that you're worried about in relation to the forecast?
Christophe Beck:
It's hard to tell. But the hotspots are obviously starting with Europe for all the reasons that you mentioned before, geopolitically, not an easy situation. Obviously, there, we have a great business, doing really well with a very strong team. But okay, we can't create miracles as well either. So I'm very cautious about what could happen in Europe. In the U.S., the economy is not going to accelerate. We'll see what the print will be for GDP as well in the second quarter in the U.S. Well, it's going to head towards more of a slowdown than an acceleration. So that's the second area. And the third one that was a bit of a question mark, at least a few months ago, was China, have become a little bit more comfortable with the situation in China. Our business is doing reasonably well, all considered as well over there. So first Europe, quite a bit behind the U.S. and way further out China. But overall, it's to remain cautious and to think about all that could happen, to have as well contingency plan in place in case things would differently than what people would expect.
Operator:
The next question is coming from the line of Steve Byrne with Bank of America.
Steve Byrne:
Within your water treatment business, are municipal water supply authorities currently customers of yours? And if not, is there something structural about that end market that is not of interest to you? One would think that drinking water standards are only going to get more challenging for these municipalities. And just curious to hear your outlook and interest for that end market?
Christophe Beck:
Well, let me start by saying, Steve that we are literally not in the municipal water business by choice. We do maybe a few millions here and there. But it’s totally irrelevant for our company because we do not want to be in that business. We have so much more to do on the Industrial and Institutional and Healthcare end markets that we know extremely well as a company. When I think about what's the main reason for that? Well, first, it's choice of priorities. We want to really stay focused where we can truly win. And second most importantly, the way we sell, as mentioned before, it's really helping customers improve their total operating cost while reducing their environmental impact. This is a value proposition that resonates extremely well with companies. Municipal, by definition, are governments. Governments do not think that way. In terms of total operating cost, it's much more what's my budget that I have for the year. This is not the way we drive our business. So there's a mismatch as well here. Is it going to stay like that for the next 50 years? I don't know. But for now, no interest in entering the municipal market.
Steve Byrne:
And with respect to innovation, can you comment on what areas of focus you're particularly excited about with respect to new products from innovation?
Christophe Beck:
Yes, we have some great stories. It's been the case for many years, obviously, in our company. I would start with a few macro innovation. The first one is Ecolab Science Certified. As mentioned before, this is a comprehensive program for institutional customers, restaurants and hotels that are protecting their guests. That's been a major innovation for us. In the Industrial field, think about net 0 water. This is a comprehensive set of programs that's helping our customers deliver on the sustainability commitments or ambition as well. We are uniquely positioned to help customers get there. This is a major driver for the future. Think about Purolite. It's an acquired, obviously, innovation that's growing fast, very high margin. This is new to our portfolio. And the last I'd mention is Ecolab 3D, probably one of the largest industrial clouds out there that we've been building over the years where we have thousands of clients that are connected that can improve their performance in real time compares what the performance unit versus unit within a company, across an industry and across industries as well. So those are 4 key innovation that I would qualify. So as enterprise innovation as well. But then you can think about data centers as well. We didn't have a program for data centers. It's a new business. We started that a few years ago, extremely successful as well. So this is a good one as well. Think about Lobster Ink,which is also providing online real-time training for institutional customers, hotels and restaurants, with all the staffing changes they have. We have close to 3 million users as well today. So working really well as well. And I can maybe mention just the last one, which is during COVID, we've launched as well our fastest kill for COVID virus in 15 seconds program for institutional customers, hotels and restaurants as well that have been used as well in the health care. Those are just a little bit a list of innovations that are coming to mind with your question.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Scott Schneeberger with Oppenheimer.
Scott Schneeberger:
Yes, I was -- could you elaborate on specifically the Healthcare segment, Christophe. Could we see that return to revenue growth in the third quarter and maybe some commentary on your view of electric procedures -- elective procedures, excuse me, versus pre-pandemic levels?
Christophe Beck:
Yes. I want to be careful on this one. So as mentioned before, so Healthcare is a business that still needs work. I like the focus that we have on it. It's going to take some time as much as I hated and you hated as well I think so, thinking about the fourth quarter, so to see growth in Healthcare, not in the group, Healthcare and Life Science. Obviously, Life Sciences is a great shape. It's clearly so health care. I think it's more looking at the fourth quarter growth, its probably more realistic. And if we can improve in Q3, well, that's going to be even better. But I would really focus on Q4.
Scott Schneeberger:
Appreciate that. And then could you categorize just overall or summarize -- it was in the press release this quarter or last quarter, investments in the business and last quarter was investments in the sales force. Could you just categorize broadly where the company is making investments and just levels of magnitude? Do you anticipate amplifying that or if the economy takes a turn for the worse, how discretionary on your ability to pull back? You've mentioned just a few questions ago that digital is something that -- it's a very consistent spending logically so. But if you can just categorize the broad base of investments, that would be appreciated?
Christophe Beck:
Yes. So macro picture, investments stable. They've been stable over the past few years. They're going to stay stable in the years to come as well. So if you think about CapEx, for instance, 6% of our sales, that's been steady for a very long time and it's going to stay as well like that. Second, our SG&A, you've seen productivity is improving as well every single year. And we will keep doing that as well. So it's investing in our team, but driving SG&A productivity as well at the same time. If I think about incremental investment, it's going to be mostly on 2 areas -- or 3 areas, sorry. The first one, our growth businesses, like Life Science, like Purolite, like data centers, like animal health, those high-growth, high-margin businesses. We will obviously keep over-investing in those ones because we want to build our leadership position as well going forward. Second is in digital for the reasons that you mentioned before, it's adding value for our customers, it's driving a better experience for our customers, and it's driving productivity. So all good reasons as well to do it the right way. Included in that, you have cybersecurity as well. The more digital you do, the more cyber risk you get, the more you need to protect yourself. We need to obviously make sure that we're well protected and I like where we are. And third is behind innovation, the products, all the programs I mentioned before as well, to the previous question, we will keep over investing as well. But overall, very steady in terms of overall envelope of investment, both CapEx and OpEx.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies.
Dan Rizzo:
This is Dan Rizzo on for Laurence. Just one quick one. If we think about the $0.10 FX headwind in Q3 and a $0.30 for 2022, what are the assumptions for where the euro and the pound are going to be trading over the next 6 months or so or next 5 months or so?
Christophe Beck:
That's a great question. Dan, let me pass it to Scott, our CFO, who has more details on that.
Scott Kirkland:
Yes. Thanks for the question, Dan. Yes, as you might expect, we're expecting continued rate hikes through the end of the year, probably in the range of 8. And so as you see that FX, it's ramped up through the second quarter, and we're expected to double basically in the second half relative to the first half, so about the $0.30, as you said.
Operator:
The next question coming from the line of Andy Wittman with Baird.
Andy Wittmann:
Scott, I was hoping to keep you going here, I guess and talk about free cash flow. Year-to-date, the free cash flow of the business is, I guess, I'm calculating just under $200 million, which I think is probably a little bit behind pace. It looks like inventory and accounts receivable has consumed a decent amount of capital. And I suppose given the revenue line, that's somewhat explainable. But could you just talk about your forecast for the year? What we should be thinking about what free cash flow generation could potentially look like? And if there's anything else going on in some of these key working capital accounts that we should know about besides effects from the top line?
Scott Kirkland:
Thanks for that question, Andy. No, you're spot on with that is the free cash flow really for the first half of the year is, as we expected. And as you're seeing the increases in sales, the investments in working capital as well as CapEx, which, as a reminder, about half of our CapEx is customer-related equipment. So as we see new business and growth in the business, we invest in CapEx but expect that to be in line, as Christophe said, that 5% to 6% of sales historically. So -- but as you think about the full year, we continue to expect as we talked after Q1 to have our free cash flow conversion in that mid-90% consistent with historical.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Eric Petrie with Citi.
Eric Petrie:
It's my understanding to get the Ecolab Science Certified deal, you have to buy the majority of products from Ecolab. How does that compare to your existing customer base in terms of supplier diversity?
Christophe Beck:
I want to make sure I get your question right. When you say supplier diversity in terms of ethnical minorities, is it what you're talking about?
Eric Petrie:
Yes. How much of your existing customer base buys from you versus others?
Christophe Beck:
Okay. Well, in terms of customers, this is a good question. I don't have the exact answer for that. So we can work on that and come back, obviously, to you. We are extremely driven, obviously, so by both diversity inside our company and outside our company. So this is true for our customers, and we have good progress there, but I want to make sure we get the right facts, and Andy is going to come back to you. And when I think about supplier diversity for the company, we've delivered on our commitments. We've improved dramatically as well. So our purchases from minorities as well and diverse suppliers in the country in the U.S. as well, we're perfectly on track versus what we had expected so far.
Eric Petrie:
Okay. For my follow-up, how does your volume mix fare by month in the quarter? And directionally, how did it trend in July with the surcharge in place?
Christophe Beck:
We usually don't give that granularity. So within the quarter, it's also not a straight line. So within the quarter as well, we have some seasonality as well that's coming as well into play. But we usually don't have big spikes within a quarter as well. So what we've communicated for the quarter is a good proxy in what we've seen in the second quarter. And the third quarter pricing is going to be an even bigger share versus volume which is not surprising since pricing is going up. Total organic growth is going to remain strong, which means that volume is going to remain stable/down in the meantime going forward.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research.
Kevin McCarthy:
Christophe, with regard to your Global Institutional and Specialty segment, do you have new structural price increases on the table or set to flow through in the back half outside of the realm of surcharges?
Christophe Beck:
Absolutely, Kevin. First and foremost, pricing in our company is happening in every business every single year, and that's been true for a very long time, maybe since the company started as well. So this is really a muscle that we keep practicing every single year. And pricing is something that checks as well in our model because it's driven with the value, the return, the eROI that we are providing to our customers. So we're going to keep driving structural pricing in all businesses, including Institutional, obviously, in the months, quarters and years to come. On top of it, is coming the energy surcharge, which is related to the energy oil and gas markets, as mentioned as well before. But the beauty of the structural price is really that it's driven by the value that we create for our customers, which is the eROI, how much savings do we help them create in their own operations versus the investment that they're making. And we're really making sure that, that return stays as strong as it can be. So pricing is true for every business, and it's going to continue to be the case in the years to come.
Kevin McCarthy:
I see. That's helpful. And then as a follow-up, sticking with the Global Institutional segment. If I look pre-pandemic, you earned pretty consistently between $930 million of EBIT to about $1 billion back in 2018. And so if I compare those sorts of levels to where you're tracking this year, it seems as though you've got maybe $300 million or more of price cost to make up. Do you agree with that math? And if so, what kind of time might be required to restore the profitability to the older levels?
Christophe Beck:
As I mentioned before, so to take the big picture, I think from a margin perspective, in Institutional, it's probably the second half of '23 that we're going to get there in terms of ratio. In terms of volume, I'm expecting that first half of next year in terms of sales we had, obviously, already now. We're working as hard as we can to get as quick as we can. So towards those milestones that I just mentioned. But macro, that's a good proxy. That being said, it's important to keep in mind as well that Institutional like most of our businesses in the company post this cycle are going to be in a stronger place than they were before, driven by 3 things
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Rosemarie Morbelli with Gabelli Funds.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
If we look at Healthcare for a minute -- I mean, that has been kind of a problem child for a while. Do you have any specific path to get the margin, the profitability of that business to the level of your other operations?
Christophe Beck:
Yes, it's a great question. And you're right that it's been a problem child for quite a while. That's one way to put it. The way I'm expressing it within the organization is to say, well, it's a dream that hasn't come through yet because the promise of reducing hospital-acquired infection in hospital, well, makes human sense, people hurting less and it make a profitability sense for hospitals because it's less work. Obviously, since people are not readmitted for new infections that they get. So I like the promise. I don't like the journey that we've been on. It's taken way too long for us to get to the right place, and we're not at the right place yet. Now back to your question. So the main driver is really sort of focused on those programs as I mentioned during the Investor Day as well, which is central sterile, for instance, which is kind of like a big kitchen. Our Healthcare team doesn't like when I compare that, that way, restaurants to a hospital, but you have a dish machine in a central steroid with all the instruments coming in. This is where we can play, this is where we know how to win. This is how we know where to make money as well. And that's a core program that I want to strengthen and build around it. Our programs are doing really well. Then unfortunately, only 40% of the total business today, that will grow, the business will improve. It's taking time, too much time, but we will get there as well.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
All right. And then if I look at the pro forma gross margin in 2019, it was 44%. What is the likelihood that you can get back to that before 2025, even if we have a mild recession?
Christophe Beck:
I feel really good of getting back there. Obviously, the work that we've done on structural pricing, on energy surcharge is going to be the main driver for us to get there. On top of it, you have the productivity improvements, driven by digital automation in SG&A and in our operations as well. So getting back to the 44% is step 1. Step 2 is to build even beyond the 44%. The question will be the timing. And the timing is related, obviously, to the shape of inflation in the quarters and year to come. The trajectory, I have zeroed out that we're going to get to the right place. The only question is how fast we're going to get there. And that's depending mostly on external factors.
Operator:
The final question is from the line of Mike Harrison with Seaport Research.
Mike Harrison:
I had a couple of quick ones, hopefully. One is on Purolite. The capacity additions I guess I thought that some of those were going to start to trickle in, in Q3, but it sounds like you're still sold out through Q3. Is there going to be some additional commercial volume in Q4? And are you at a point right now where you're able to baseload that additional capacity with customer commitments?
Christophe Beck:
Yes, we're in a great place. It's an interesting problem to have where demand is really strong with the innovation we're bringing to the market even stronger when we combine. So what we're doing in Life Science and water as well, so for our customers, we're maxing capacity. As you mentioned, we hope to bring that capacity online during the third quarter, knowing exactly when that's going to happen. I don't know yet. And that's why I'm assuming that's probably going to take till the end of the third quarter, we want to do that extremely well. Quality needs to be absolutely secured. Those are pharma products, as you know, as well, and we want to do it as well the Ecolab way, which means that it's going to be unleashed in Q4 and in 2023. It's taking a bit more time than what I would have wished to build that capacity, but I like the trade of getting very solid quality even if it's taking a little bit more time, I'm building for the future here. If the future is in Q4 instead of Q3, I'm fine with that. The trajectory is going to be really nice. And the more I look at that business, the more like it.
Mike Harrison:
All right. Then the paper business continues to be very strong. Can you give, Christophe, some additional color? Are you taking some market share? And if so, is that more of a new customer or a new mill win? Or is it expanding share of wallet with existing customers?
Christophe Beck:
It's all of the above. It's a fascinating business, paper. And especially since we've evolved over time from old graphic paper, the paper you write on, to more consumer products, which are tissues and boxes for the most part. This is a market that's strong, that requires a lot of technology that we can provide as well, that is much less cyclical than printing paper ultimately here. So the portfolio shift that we've made in paper towards consumer products has been extremely successful, both from a sales perspective, attractiveness of what we're doing and margins as well because we help those consumer good companies operating at a lower total cost while reducing their environmental impact, they use a lot of water, as you probably know as well and create a lot of waste. Well, what we offer to them helps them reduce environmental impact, reduce the total cost and improve the quality as well as of the finished products. It's a good story, and this team has been great at executing pricing as well, which on top of it, makes it an even better business.
Operator:
We reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I'll hand the floor to Mr. Hedberg for further remarks.
Andy Hedberg:
Thank you. That wraps up our second quarter conference call. This conference call and the associated discussion slides will be available for replay on our website. Thank you for your time and participation, and I hope everyone has a great rest of the day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you.
Operator:
Greetings, and welcome to the Ecolab's First Quarter 2022 Earnings Release Conference Call [Operator Instructions]. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. At this time, it is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mike Monahan, Senior Vice President, External Relations. Mr. Monahan, you may begin.
Mike Monahan:
Thank you. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Ecolab's first quarter conference call. With me today are Christophe Beck, Ecolab's CEO; and Scott Kirkland, our CFO. A discussion of our results, along with our earnings release and the slides referencing the quarter’s results, are available on Ecolab's Web site at ecolab.com/investor. Please take a moment to read the cautionary statements in these materials, which state that this teleconference and the associated supplemental materials include estimates of future performance. These are forward-looking statements and actual results could differ materially from those projected. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are described under the Risk Factors section in our most recent Form 10-K and in our posted materials. We also refer you to the supplemental diluted earnings per share information in the release. Starting with a brief overview, continued strong double digit sales growth driven by accelerating pricing and further new business wins overcame substantially increased delivered product cost inflation and unfavorable currency translation to deliver the adjusted diluted earnings per share gain. Sales were led by double digit gains in our Institutional & Specialty, Industrial and Other segments with attractive growth in all geographic regions. We drove the strong sales performance in a rapidly changing environment where the rise in new COVID infections early in the first quarter slowed the global recovery and further disrupted supply chains while the war in Eastern Europe later in the quarter exacerbated the supply chain costs and geopolitical uncertainty. Our delivered product cost inflation soared an estimated 25% in the first quarter versus last year and added an estimated $0.55 per share of incremental costs to the first quarter alone. We reacted aggressively and continued accelerating our pricing, which reached 5% in the quarter, up from 3% in the fourth quarter. We now look for a structural pricing to increase 6% to 7% for the balance of the year. And when adding in our previously announced energy surcharge of up to 12%, we expect very strong pricing to overcome the substantial delivered product cost inflation. Along with our new business wins, strengthened business portfolio and improved productivity, we look to realize continued strong top line momentum for the full year. We expect accelerating earnings growth through the second half and expect to deliver low teens growth in adjusted diluted earnings per share for the full year 2022, understanding there's a uncertainty in the timing of the surcharge realization, which will become more clear as we exit the second quarter. This strong business momentum along with our enhanced value proposition and favorable long term macro trends position us well to leverage the post COVID environment and deliver further superior long term shareholder returns. And now here's Christophe Beck with his comments.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you so much, Mike, and good afternoon, everyone. I'm very pleased with how the team continued to execute in Q1. In a rapidly changing environment, we remain focused on what we could control, like new business, pricing, innovation and exceptional customer service, while we continue to manage extremely well but we could not totally control, like obviously inflation, COVID restrictions and now the war in Eastern Europe. We started '22, actually, with strong momentum as our fundamental business drivers continue to improve, which is most important to me. Fixed currency organic sales growth accelerated to 12% with 7% of that led by volume gains from strong demand and new business generation. Institutional & Specialty, as you just heard, led the quarter with 19% organic growth, continuing its strong recovery while Industrial further strengthened its already healthy momentum by delivering 12% organic growth, which is even better than what they delivered in Q4. Our margins were also trending very well for most of the first quarter, even ahead of our own expectations as we were on a path to nicely overcome the significant delivered product cost inflation until the war in Eastern Europe started. As we all know, this had a major impact also on global energy costs, which impacted the last few weeks of the quarter. This spike in costs added an unexpected incremental $0.04 a share in the last months alone, resulting in a total unfavorable impact from delivered product cost inflation of $0.55 per share in the first quarter close to 70% of our ultimate Q1 earnings. Importantly, we overcame the significant headwind, thanks to accelerated pricing, which rose from 3% in the fourth quarter to 5% in the first quarter. And most importantly, we did all this while maintaining strong momentum in demand, new business, pricing and productivity, the fundamentals of Ecolab. So based on what we see today and the actions we have already taken, I remain really confident in our ability to continue to deliver strong top line growth and accelerated pricing in '22 to get ahead of this new energy cost and to see our margins turn positive during the second half to deliver a strong full year 2022. Even if the path to get there has now changed quite a bit once again, the unexpected rapid rise of oil and gas costs during the last month of the first quarter will now impact three full months of the second. We therefore had to react boldly and we did. We decided to implement a global energy surcharge very first for Ecolab, which will now come on top of our increasing long term structural pricing. And once fully implemented, the surcharge will then behave as an offset to what we expect to be short term but incremental energy cost inflation. Now we started the second quarter and actually with 100% of the incremental energy cost, but 0% of the energy surcharge as its implementation started on April 1st. Because of this, we now expect the second quarter to see the most acute squeeze in the year between price and delivered product cost inflation. Occurring at the same time, the surcharge is being implemented with customers around the world, but early progress is very encouraging. As the energy surcharge progressively rolls out, we should see the bulk of the surcharge primarily impact the second half of the year and somewhat the second quarter. And accordingly, this initial benefit from the surcharge along with accelerating structural pricing, strong volume growth and productivity gains should help us drive our second quarter delivery with earnings that approach last year's $122 million. And finally, as it's been demonstrated over and over again at Ecolab, when challenging times strike, we make absolutely sure we protect what matters. Our people, our customers and our company. Over the past few years, when we could have reduced our workforce to manage short term costs, we protected our global team, one of the key reasons why today our customer retention remains so high. We also protect our customers with major breakthrough innovation like Ecolab Science Certified, one of the key reasons why today our new business generation remains so strong. And we protected our company by investing in digital technology, one of the key reasons where today our productivity keeps improving. This approach has also demonstrated over and over again that our model starts generating significant margin leverage when cost inflation stabilizes and structured pricing [sticks]. So with continuing strong demand for our unique solutions that prevent [infection] and protect natural resources when customers need them the most, we expect organic sales growth to remain in double digit territory for the rest of the year. With structured pricing rising between 6% to 7% for the balance of the year and an energy surcharge that will progressively act as an offset for the spike in energy costs, we expect operating margin comparison to turn positive sometime during the second half of the year. This should then support our early expectations to deliver full year earnings growth that reaches the low teens, understanding, as you've heard that there is uncertainty in the timing of the realization of the surcharge and actually the pace of inflation, but this will become more clear as we exit the second quarter. And also, let's not forget that our full year delivery includes $0.26 of Purolite amortization of 5% of EPS. And as that momentum extends beyond '22, we expect to show Ecolab's hallmark of consistent superior earnings growth for the many years to come. I look forward to your questions.
Mike Monahan:
Thanks, Christophe. That concludes our formal remarks. As a final note before we start Q&A, we plan to hold our annual tour of our booth at the National Restaurant Association show in Chicago on Monday, May 23. If you have any questions, please contact our office. Operator, would you please begin the question-and-answer period?
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Tim Mulrooney with William Blair.
Tim Mulrooney:
Just one question from me today, Christophe, on the delivered product costs. I know you said they were up 25% in the first quarter. Can you just talk about how inflation trended through the first quarter and through April, and then how you're thinking about that progression through the second quarter?
Christophe Beck:
Actually, we've become experts at this. Unfortunately, if I may say so -- and it's important to step back, probably because when we look at 2021, so last year. Well, the first half of the year, there was almost no inflation. It was close to 1%. And then the third quarter, as we remember, so move to 10% for us of this delivered product costs, which represents 25% of our sales, as you know. And then in Q4, so it doubled to 20% and the full year saw 10% of inflation for Ecolab, so for 2021. And also to your point, in Q1 2022, we're expecting kind of the same as in Q4, so the 20%. Well, it moved to 25% because of the war in Eastern Europe that started, so at the end of February. And we're expecting initially Q2 to be the same as Q1 or Q4, so 20%, 20%, 20%, and ultimately, we ended up with 20% in Q4, 25% in Q1, 30% expected in Q2. So when you're talking about April, so it's trending towards this full second quarter of 30%, which we expect that for the full year we should end up with 25% inflation for [DPC] when we were thinking initially that it would be 15%. And to put it in perspective, Tim, just to conclude here that will represent roughly $1 billion over 18 months that we will have to overcome, which we have overcome. So the part of ‘21 last year and delivering EPS growth, the same in Q2 as well and really the same as well for the quarters to come in 2022.
Operator:
Your next question comes from David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.
David Begleiter:
Christophe, looking at Q2 guidance, if you look at the various puts and takes on volume and pricing, et cetera. Can you discuss why we only approached last year's [indiscernible]. And secondly, what drives a strong earnings growth in the back half of the year?
Christophe Beck:
That's a big question, David, but let me do one by one. So first, Q2, if I may. Well, the situation changed obviously, so when the war started at the end of February, because the first half of the first two months of Q1, we had a great start. We were trending really well, both in terms of top line momentum. You've heard this 12% organic growth driven by 7% volume and 5% price. Well, at the end of February, things changed. So we were ahead of our expectations. We were getting ahead of [DPC] inflation, and we're expecting to deliver strong Q1 and really get in a very good position for a strong Q2 delivery. That was before the war started at the end of February. So when the war started, we obviously saw good impact on the energy cost, which triggered that surcharge that we've talked about, where we had just a few days basically to decide that globally, all businesses, all countries will move together in order to compensate for this additional energy cost. As you've heard before, so this month of March added $0.04 to our delivery. And for the second quarter, well, you get three months of that obviously and trending up, unfortunately. So it will all depend now, as I mentioned in my opening remarks, on the speed at which we can deliver the surcharge, which is going well but it's a complicated exercise. It's a 40 end markets, it's 170 countries around the world, we want to make sure that all customers are aligned with it as well in order to have the right, obviously, revenue recognition. We're going to make sure we don't have collection issues as well. So it's hard to know exactly how the timing is going to be. So I'm having Q2, basically with 100% of the headwind and a surcharge that's progressing during the quarter. How to know exactly where we're going to end at the end of the quarter. But I think we're going to get down close to where we were last year. And honestly, if get to 95% of where I was last year, I'd be happy with it, but we will do our utmost obviously, to get as close as we can. That's the first part of your question. The second for the full year with our ambition to get towards the low teens, which obviously requires a strong second half. Well, think about it. So we have strong momentum, which always helps, obviously, 12% driven by high demand. The price is really good. So we have 5% that's been accelerating during the first quarter, moving towards 6% to 7% without losses of customers or major losses, it’s always onesie-twosies, but nothing major. Well, we have productivity that keeps getting better as well. You've seen that in our results for Q1 over 100 basis points of improvement. So we have fundamentals that are in very good shape. Then we have the surcharge that's coming almost 100% for the second half. So if you get the fundamentals plus the surcharge realization, and also expecting that inflation will plateau and ease at some point as well during the second half, well, we should end up in a very good place from a margin leverage perspective. But that all depends on the timing, first, on the execution of the surcharge and second, how inflation is going to evolve. But if things happen well, we'll end up in the right place with a very strong second half, that I'm sure about it where we end up for the full year exactly that's harder to tell, but it's just a matter of one month or two plus or minus at the end of the year that's going to bring us to the final result. But at the end of the day, David, what I'm really trying to drive here is to have the right fundamentals that ultimately, in '23, we end up in a place where we get the high margin leverage that we're all looking for starting in the second half and then getting even better for 2023. So the two parts of your questions here. Hopefully, I could address them.
David Begleiter:
Just quickly on the surcharge, how quickly is the design to roll off if and when oil prices do ease off as well?
Christophe Beck:
That's something that we will have to discuss with customers. I don't think that it's going to happen overnight. But it's taking a few months to implement. It's probably going to take a few months to roll off as well whenever that's going to happen.
Operator:
Next question comes from Manav Patnaik with Barclays.
Manav Patnaik:
Christophe, I just had a big picture question for you in terms of outside of obviously, the inflationary pressures you talked about, just curious if you're starting to see any macro pressures, maybe specifically in Europe, given all the press around it.
Christophe Beck:
So generally, so far, so good, but we're all reading the newspaper and looking at the news, obviously. So when I think in terms of demand for what we do, it's very strong. All companies have made sustainability commitments, as you know, and they need always more of our services in order ultimately to deliver on the sustainability commitment. On the other hand, as well from an infection prevention as well, food safety, COVID or whatever else that can be as well, our customers ask always more so from what we're doing. So we don't have a demand issue. We're really on strong trends, which is really good. So so far, we haven't seen or perceived any slowdown with two exceptions. The first one is institutional, the restaurants and the hotels, but especially the restaurants. So we thought that it would open up quicker during the first quarter and continue on that trend during the second quarter. Well, it's been slower from a market perspective than what we were expecting. So is that as an outcome as well of the economic pressure at the beginning of the year, it was related to Omicron obviously. But now is it because of interest rate and price of oil and so on, we'll see that. So that's one small indication. The second one is China because of the [load] counts over there that are more extreme than everyone was expecting. It's 4% of our company. So anyway, it's a good news, bad news. Sometimes I would wish it would be much bigger. Today, I'm happy it's only 4% but that's probably there that we might have as well, so some darkening clouds, hopefully not, but that could happen. Otherwise, so far, so good. The last thing I would mention, Manav, is probably currency. As you know, the dollar is strengthening. We're expecting so kind of roughly $0.10 for the full year and it's doubled as we speak right now. So I would imagine that, that's going to strengthen as well, so it might become as well a further headwind.
Manav Patnaik:
And maybe just asked another way, like maybe near term, medium term, longer term, like if demand is not an issue, like do you plan on changing your sales force growth strategy at all?
Christophe Beck:
I want to make sure I understand right what you're saying when you say sales force growth…
Manav Patnaik:
Would you be hiring more people -- would your pace of hiring increase given all this demand out there?
Christophe Beck:
So yes and no. In the past, I would say, pre-digital times, our growth was almost directly correlated to our growth of our field sales force. That's changing now over time. It will still keep growing but not at the same pace as it used to over the last 98 years, of the 99 years that we've been in business, because digital automation is obviously helping us automate a lot of transactional work that our team is doing today, like driving a bunch of stuff you can do so with remote monitoring, preparation as well of sales calls, you can do much more so on the computers now, and we've implemented all that over the past few years, as you know, that requires less homework as well to get ready for customers, fixing equipment as well, we can do that remotely. So there's a bunch of stuff that we can automate through digital technology, which will disconnect to a certain extent the growth of other company and the growth of the field force, which drives as well to SG&A productivity.
Operator:
Next question comes from the line of Steve Byrne with Bank of America.
Steve Byrne:
I'd like to better understand this energy surcharge, is it defined by oil, natural gas or electricity, or does that depend on your customer? And just want to make sure I understood you correctly about the inflation you're expecting in the second quarter. If I understood you correctly, you're looking at a 30% inflation, maybe 20% from raw materials and 10% from energy just that I hear you right. And if so, are you getting any pushback on this energy surcharge given it's roughly twice the magnitude of your structural price increases.
Christophe Beck:
So two parts. The first one, we've announced that to customers around the world, it's a global surcharge for the whole company, all customers, all industries, all countries around the world. It gets implemented slightly differently business by business then afterwards. Think about pest elimination is very different than a heavy industrial business like paper, for instance. But the general principle is, yes, it's related to the price of oil. And what we've said is that the surcharge will be between 8% and 12%, it can go higher than 12% if the oil price gets higher. But 8%, 10% and 12% are related to oil pegs that we've defined as well so with customers. So if the oil price goes further up, the energy surcharge will go further up. We wanted to have it temporary, mechanical, formulaic as well that customers know how it works, when they get it, how much it is, when it gets off as well. That's the theory. The practice is obviously a little bit different as mentioned before. So pest elimination might be different than a heavy industrial business. But generally, we discuss with all customers to get it right, making sure that it's an offset to the energy increase or energy cost increase that we have in our P&L. And so far, it's gone quite well with customers around the world. It's early. We've been three weeks at that. So it started April 1st. But so far, so good. It's going to take a few months to finalize as well. So I'm quite happy with the progress we're making right now but there is still some work that remains in order to get to the right place. I might pause here just to make sure that I'm addressing your question.
Steve Byrne:
I wanted to also ask you about the Purolite acquisition. You got four months under your belt now. Is anything surprising you, anything going slower than you expected or anything that's a positive surprise?
Christophe Beck:
Well, all of the above. It's progressing well with all the usual challenges of M&A of integration. It was a family company. I would call it a big start-up as well. So then suddenly, you end up in a larger corporation with processes, with practices, with organization and all that, Obviously, there is some fraction that needs to be aligned, but we're in a very good place. In terms of team, you probably know that our leader for Purolite is a General Manager who comes from Ecolab since the two brothers retired. They were all 80 years old or quite. So that was very natural. So we have a team combined from former Ecolab -- former Purolite people and people coming from Ecolab as well. From a performance perspective, you know that business was growing double digit as we took it over in '21, it will be growing double digit in '22. What's important to keep in mind is that the first half of the year, we are capacity constrained. So the demand is higher than the supply we can provide, which is the reason why we are building a new plant in Pennsylvania and extending another one in the UK as well, and that's going to come online in the second half of the year. So we're going to have kind of this pattern of double digit last year, kind of slower growth in the first half this year, much higher growth in the second half of this year. And then after raises by '23 since capacity has been such a a big driver that we had to open in order to grow further. But last but not least, the more we look at it, the more we like it. It's an unbelievable industry, biopharma. It's huge. It's growing really fast. It's something we can address. There's very few competitors that can do what we can do as well. We have really saw a technology that no one else has in some cases as well. And what I like the most is that we can build a lot of things around it to really build that growth platform like we did 20 years ago with pest elimination and all the businesses that we have in the company than 10 years ago, [water] that came as well, so around food safety and hygiene at Ecolab and now we have Purolite that can serve the life science business, but also the industrial businesses to which we can add as well some M&A down the road, which makes it even more interesting. So all in all, I would do it again.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Ashish Sabadra with RBC Capital Markets.
Ashish Sabadra:
I just wanted to focus on the Industrial segment. We saw some pretty broad based acceleration there across water, food and beverage and downstream. I was wondering if you could talk about what kind of momentum do you see going forward, and how much of it was volume versus pricing driven?
Christophe Beck:
Industrial is in a great shape. It's [half] our company, as you know. They've been growing 12% organic in the first quarter of this year versus 7% in Q4, by the way, 5% was volume, 7% was price. And what I like the most is that we have acceleration on all fronts. Water moved from Q4 to Q1, so 8% [accelerated] to 11%. F&B was at 4%, is now at 10%. Paper was at 15%, remained strong at 16%. And Downstream, which has been stuck for two years, ended up the year at 8% and 16% in this first quarter as well. And what's really interesting is that there are some new engines as well in there, as we call them, like global high techs; with data centers growing fast as well, chemical industry as well, which is a new business that we've created; and animal health as well, which are kind of those future growth businesses that are adding to the momentum of that group, which is doing really well, broad based, all businesses, most countries around the world; in China, a little bit more tricky for the reasons I mentioned as well before, but otherwise, in a very good shape. And just end up on margins as well for that in Industrial, which is always a question. While margins were down 10% in Q1, but it's important to keep in mind, they were up 19% versus 2019. So before COVID struck as well. Industrial has really shown ultimately how do they behave during inflationary times that was pre, obviously, this cycle, that was '17-'18 cycle, ended up great margin improvement in 2020. And that cycle with very good pricing as well, we'll end up into margin leverage down the road as well as it did in the past and gets up in terms of margin ratio as well as we go through each of those cycles.
Ashish Sabadra:
And maybe if I can just ask a question at the high level on the volume side. Obviously, very strong momentum in volume. But as we go through the rest of the year, the comps get a bit tougher maybe on the Institutional side, easier on the health care side. But you should start to see some of the benefit from -- better benefit from reopening. So how should we think about the volume trend at a high level across the company?
Christophe Beck:
Overall, roughly the same for the reasons you mentioned, Ashish. Some are going to turn more positive and some are going to slow down for comp question, as you mentioned. But generally -- so top line is going to remain in double digit territory, and the volumes will kind of remain, for the most part, similar that's assuming there's no recession or big, obviously, events happening out there. But otherwise, I think it's a pretty steady momentum that we have across the company.
Operator:
Next question comes from the line of Chris Parkinson with Mizuho.
Chris Parkinson:
Christophe, would you just take a step back over the last few years. Obviously, there have been a lot of ebbs and flows during the COVID situation or whatever you want to call it. You have launched a bunch of new, I would say, products but more likely programs in food safety, sanitization, among many other verticals. When you sit back and think with the management team about share gain potential, kind of where you are and where you could be. Just is there any difference in how you would peg your growth algo for the institutional portfolio or pieces of industrial versus the market and peers versus, let's say, a few years ago? Just how has that thought process evolved?
Christophe Beck:
Well, generally, we're definitely gaining shares -- if we compare, obviously, always our growth with competitions growth. And I guess you do the same. So we're way ahead of most of them. We have some weaknesses sometimes that we recognize and deal with obviously. But I feel good in terms of shares that we're gaining across the key businesses across the key countries. If you take Institutional, as you mentioned, for instance, as well, it's interesting to take one fact since Institution in the US is so big. Well take our restaurant business in Institutional. Sales in Q1 are at the same level as they were in 2019, so pre-COVID. While the dine-in traffic in restaurants is [75%] down versus 2019 for all the reasons we know our staffing and all the staff that are [bugging] restaurants ultimately. But back to the traffic in restaurants is a third down versus '19, well, that's showing so how much share we've gained as well in that specific example of Institutional, and that could cover other businesses as well.
Chris Parkinson:
And just a very quick follow-up on health care. You mentioned the supplemental, some momentum with elective surgeries in the US, offset by a slower recovery in Europe. But the competitive dynamic kind of evolved there also during the COVID situation. Some of the HPCs got a little bit more aggressive. Can you just talk about your strategy there a little bit more, once again, where you stand today and what you -- how you believe you're positioned for growth and just comment on how Street should be thinking about modeling that over the next, let's say, two years?
Christophe Beck:
Well, interestingly enough, before COVID, the major convergence of focus in health care was towards surgical. So operating rooms, central sterile, patient room, so really so that's centered around the operating room, which I believe was a very small strategy and it didn't come from me. So I take no credit about this one. But I think the company did it really well. Except that during COVID, well, surgeries got shut down, postponed and it happens a lot of times, so on and off, which drove everybody nuts, obviously, in the industry. And that happened again over the last six months with Omicron. So it's the right long term strategy, Chris. I have zero doubt about that because it's ultimately making sure you protect patient from hospital acquired infection, which is good for patients. It's good for the hospital because they reduce their total cost and they can operate as well more often, which helps because they don't need to repeat operations that they've done as well in the past. So strategy was right. It's still right for the future. It just got a lot of stops and go over the last two years, which was related to those elective surgeries that have been kind of shut down and restarted.
Operator:
Next question comes from the line of Josh Spector with UBS.
Josh Spector:
I just wanted to follow up on the volume outlook kind of for the rest of this year and specifically in Institutional. I just wanted to think about if business travel improvement is something that becomes a meaningful kind of flex point for your outlook. So lodging room sold has recovered but arguably that's more leisure versus business travel. I think your exposure hotel and regional wise would be more skewed to the business side. So do you think that improves and is that baked into the second half outlook at all, or is that a source of upside versus your current thinking?
Christophe Beck:
So business travel is a small part of our business. But it's impacting, obviously, so our lodging business, which is roughly 6% of our company, as you probably know. But we're taking, obviously, any help in the market out there. I think it's -- for the full year, we're going to have a lot of puts and takes. There's going to be some upside with travel. As you mentioned, so leisure is getting better. We feel it in our end market. Business travel is going to ramp up as well in the months to come. But on the other hand, I think that there will be some economic pressure as well on most people in the US and in Europe as well, driven by the price of oil, interest rate, subsidies, you name it, obviously, that we had during COVID that is going to go away as well. And we can feel as well or the industry can feel already that there's some pressure there. So there is going to be some good news and some less good news, but we'll see what's really going to happen over the next few months. That I can't influence. The only thing I can influence is new business. And new business in institutional has been doing extremely well actually during the pandemic and is continuing to do it right now as well on top of the pricing that they're getting, which is driving shares, as I was mentioning to Chris as well before. So ultimately, I think that institutional is going to be in a good place. One might say we could have grown even faster if everything would have been unleashed at the same time as well, well, that's not the way things work. So generally, the industry might slow down a little bit, and we might not grow as fast as we would have wished, but we will still remain in double digit territory in '22, which I believe is a pretty good performance.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.
Vincent Andrews:
A couple of quick ones from me. The release mentioned in food retail, I guess, because of staffing issues at some of the cleaning intensity had declined. Can you just clarify that staffing issue, is that because in the quarter, there was kind of COVID-related outages when Omicron was surging or is that because customers are struggling? I'm just trying to understand how transitory the issue is.
Christophe Beck:
Yes, it's an interesting one, Vincent, because for the most part, the retail industry is doing quite well, especially the large customers, the large retailers that we are serving around the country and around the world. The trick is that they are all struggling with how much people they get, obviously, in their stores, so they need to choose where the people are going ultimately. They go and serve customers or do they do as well as much as they should. So on the the cleaning side as well, I want to be careful how I'm saying that, obviously, because we make sure that our customers are doing things the right way. But in normal times, they would do much more than what they're doing today. And it's all related to the staffing that the shifting are from one part of the store towards the commercial one, which is driving their stays as well.
Vincent Andrews:
And just as a follow-up, Scott, if I could ask you about sort of how you expect working capital trend through the year. Obviously, in an inflationary environment, you're going to and need more of it but looked like a pretty good build in the quarter and you finished the quarter with a low cash balance. So just how should we be thinking about working capital and free cash flow for the year?
Scott Kirkland:
As you mentioned in the quarter, there was a bit of a build, as you'd expect. So free cash flows were in line with what we expected for the first quarter and really just below last year because we built working capital and CapEx which you would expect as sales are growing, especially this strong. And so as we look for the year on a free cash flow basis, we expect that for the full year we would have free cash flows, it's really in line with free cash flow conversion, historical levels, which means that our working capital will sort of trend in line with the business growth.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Scott Schneeberger with Oppenheimer.
Scott Schneeberger:
Christophe, following up on the Industrial segment. Just curious, in the press release, it cited unfavorable mix as a headwind. Could you elaborate a little bit on that please and just discuss where that's going? And then a follow-up in there is to a discussion earlier on Industrial about segment margin. A few years ago, pre pandemic in the mid-teens. How quickly could the margin get back to that level based on what you're seeing?
Christophe Beck:
So two parts of you few questions, obviously. So margins and mix. So if I talk about overall margins, usually, it takes two years to kind of get through the margin cycle. So our inflation goes up and we get the pricing, we get the dollars back to the first year and the second year, we get the margins back and more, and that's how we've grown our margins in industrial, so at every cycle. And it's going to be the same in this one with one big difference is that usually the inflationary cycle will last much less time this time, well, we're already planning for two years, last year and this year. So the cycle is going to be a little bit longer but a very strong price muscle in industrial for a few reasons, first, because our premium products are competitive versus competition in terms of what they can deliver. So our customers are interested in paying more to get more as well out of it. And second, we have a pricing approach, which is driven by eROI, as you probably know, which is basically getting a share of the savings that we are generating for our customers as well. So it's kind of a very natural organic type pricing as well. So the underlying pricing, and then you have the inflation pricing that comes on top of it. So bottom line should be towards '23, I think that assuming that inflation obviously peaks now and eases in the quarters to come in '23. So we should really see so that rebuild and step up in margins in Industrial. That was your second question. The first one was the mix. There's three things. One is business mix. If you have paper, for instance, so growing faster than like water, paper is at lower margin than like Water. Well, that has an impact in the mix of businesses. Within a business, you can take downstream, for instance, we have an important offering, which is called additives that energy companies are using usually when the prices of oil are rather high because they can afford it. Well, those ones are growing really fast right now. They have lower margin than the chemical offering that we're providing to those customers. And the last one is the country mix as well. So depending on where you grow that has an impact as well on the overall margin of Industrial. So those are the three big drivers of this margin mix.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners.
Kevin McCarthy:
Christophe, coming back to the surcharges that you're implementing as of April 1st. How much might you actually expect to realize in the June quarter? The reason I ask is, I think your press release on March 15th indicated a range of 8% to 12% and I imagine, in some cases, you get the high end immediately. In other cases, maybe the low and still other cases, perhaps you have some contractual limitations. So perhaps you can talk about the flow through as you begin to implement that program in the second quarter and also into the third quarter.
Christophe Beck:
So two things, Kevin, and I can explain it in a complicated way and a very simple way. I'll take the simple one and we can get obviously some more in detail if you wish so. But the way we agree and align with customers in such a short period of time is really to make sure that the surcharge is an offset to the increase of commodity costs related to energy cost. So you get a net zero ultimately on our EPS delivery. But if we don't get the surcharge, obviously, we have a negative EPS delivery, because we get the inflation and we don't get the surcharge. So that's the way we think about it, really that the surcharge is a natural offset so for the increase related to the energy costs. So that's the first one. And the second, and I'll pause after that, so just to make sure that I addressed your question here. The second quarter ending June, as you say, Well, it's a transition quarter because obviously, we start from zero on April 1st and we hope to be as close to kind of -- in cruising speeds in June or July, which is why I'm not perfectly accurate on where we're going to be at the end of June because there's a lot of realization that needs to happen for those thousands of customers, millions of locations around the world in 170 countries. This is real work. It's evolving very nicely, very well. I like the progress that we're making, but it's an imperfect journey, obviously, since we've never done it as well. So that's the way we think about it in terms of net impact, an offset for the second quarter, well, it's not going to be a straight line to heaven, but it's going to end up in a good place sometime this summer. I don't know if it's going to be exactly at the end of June when the quarter ends.
Kevin McCarthy:
And then secondly, I wanted to ask you about your Institutional earnings results in the first quarter, came in a little bit better than we had anticipated. I guess my question is, did it come in better than you thought internally? And if so, what drove the positive variance in that piece of the portfolio.
Christophe Beck:
So just to make sure I get you right, so you're talking about -- you want me to talk about sales or margin or both?
Kevin McCarthy:
I was referring to your operating earnings in global institutional and speciality.
Christophe Beck:
Well, actually, so sales were really good. They could have been even better if omicron wouldn't have hit to the first part of the quarter. And the earnings were good but they're still not as high as they could or should be, because they've been impacted as well by the delivered product cost inflation. So good growth, good productivity work. You maybe remember that we've implemented in 2020 a global field system as well that is really automating a big chunk of the transactional work that our field force is doing around the world, that's driving better productivity. Innovation is adding to margin as well. We mentioned Ecolab Science Certified disinfection programs as well related to COVID and post COVID as well. That’s all helping on the margin. But the truth it's going to happen in the quarters to come and probably as well in the years to come. Because when all that comes together that the pricing gets ahead as well of inflation, I firmly believe that the institutional margins will be even better after that cycle than it was pre-COVID, whenever the past is going to be or the future is going to be but let's assume it's going to be '23. But Institutional on a very good path, both on top line and bottom line as well and the best is to come.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Eric Petrie with Citi.
Eric Petrie:
How are underlying sanitizing sales normalizing compared to the 2019 levels?
Christophe Beck:
So that's an imperfect science, obviously. So it was -- when we look at all the sanitizing sales that we have in the company, it grew over 50% during the COVID times. And the way it looks like right now is that it should remain at roughly 20% above where it was pre-COVID, let's call it, 2019.
Eric Petrie:
And then typically, your Institutional margins over history are higher than Industrial. How do you see that as you were talking about mix and so forth, 2023 and beyond and some of the growth verticals that you have in Industrial as well as net zero?
Christophe Beck:
As mentioned before, so Institution is going to be better after that cycle concludes, let's assume, so '23, COVID inflation and all that. It's not all going to happen on January 1st, obviously. But post this cycle, the business performance, the P&L of Institutional is going to be better than it was in 2019 of pre-COVID. That's the first one for all the reasons I mentioned on the prior question. On Industrial, we've had a very good journey of margin improvement over the years. And interestingly enough, also happening during those inflationary cycles, we had the previous one. You maybe remember the margin improvement we had in 2020 was growing north of 20% in terms of operating margin and ended up in a very good place, which is why I just mentioned before as well earlier on the call, even the margins are down 10% in Q1, they're higher at 19% than they were in 2019 as well. So due to the pricing mix work that the team has been doing. So that's going to continue going forward. What you mentioned as well on net zero is obviously something that was much less relevant a few years ago, but that's becoming very relevant right now and going forward because many of our customers have made commitments on the sustainability objectives. Many of them are not progressing as fast as they were hoping for a bunch of good and less good reasons sometimes. This is obviously driving very good demand. So for us, we've created a dedicated Net Zero division now within Industrial in order to serve those customers as well that are the most advanced. And those customers tend to be higher margin as well at the same time, which will help contribute as well to better margins for Industrial, which down the road, I expect Industrial to reach the same level of margin than Institutional and potentially even better.
Operator:
Next question is coming from the line of Shlomo Rosenbaum with Stifel.
Shlomo Rosenbaum:
Quick question, we had a lot of talk about pricing. I want to go back a little bit more to volumes. And just to ask, where are we on the overall company volumes like-for-like vis-a-vis 2019? In other words, how much is left in terms of return to normal play in terms of revenue potential? Like you talked about Institutional being back to where it was, but with in-person dining just down a significant amount. So if you were to put it like-to-like, what would you say the upside is or potential for revenue with just kind of normalization, say, coming if you were to assume that would come in 2023?
Christophe Beck:
So I had to get to some numbers in order to get that. I want to make sure I get the right one. So from top line perspective, we're way ahead of 2019 already, obviously, but you asked the right question, so in terms of volume. So if you look at Q1 '22, we have businesses that are already ahead of 2019. Industrial is ahead, Healthcare & Life Sciences ahead, our Other segment is ahead as well. And the only one that's below 2019, roughly 10% in terms of volume is Institutional & Specialty and is expected to cross that line during the second half of the year, where we're going to be in a place where all businesses, I mean, all major businesses will be ahead of 2019 in terms of volume during the second half of the year.
Shlomo Rosenbaum:
So when I'm thinking about the recovery, you still have -- that should be largely a second half '22 and first half of '23, kind of improvement potential over there. Is that the right way to think of it?
Christophe Beck:
Absolutely, especially in Institutional & Specialty, no doubt about that. That's why we're saying it's going to take -- it's kind of a two, three year cycle where demand is going to be higher just because the industry is recovering from a demand perspective and staffing, as we talked about before as well as you get more staffing in hotels, for instance, you've probably been in hotels lately, so the service is a little bit different, than it used to be even though you're paying the same prices for your rooms, well, it's not because hotels won't have it that way, they don't have staffing to do it. That's going to add as well. So to the demand for us because those people are using our product, that's going to be a good thing and that's going to help us drive demand in '22 and in '23. When it's going to stop? I don't know, but I think we have one or two years ahead of us of recovery, which is really good for that business.
Shlomo Rosenbaum:
And just for the follow-up question. Is one quarter really enough time to get energy surcharge across the expanse of the customers that you guys have. It just seems like it's -- you're trying to hit everybody. At the same time, people also wanted to make new sales. Is there a focus being taken off of new sales in order to be able to do this? How should we think about it?
Christophe Beck:
So first, getting it all done in one quarter, the short answer is no. And that's why I'm saying that in theory, if everything were done in the second quarter in a perfect way, yes, we would be growing our earnings very nicely. Well, it's not going to happen because we started zero on April 1st and at the end of June, we won't be 100% done either for all the reasons that you're mentioning. And that's why it's hard to know exactly where we're going to be. But I know that this summer, let's put it that way, we will be in a very good place because all businesses, everyone around the world so needs to get this one done at the right way. So exactly for the reasons that we mentioned before. And the second point on the [prioritization] of new business versus pricing, we've been reasonably good at that. But I want to be perfectly honest with you. When we focus on pricing, let alone the surcharge, which is something totally new since we've never done that globally. Well, you get your eyes off the ball of new business. So I expect plan to slow down a little bit to get the pricing right but that's why we want to get pricing done as quickly as we can to make sure that new business maintains momentum as well down the road, it's hard to do both at the same time.
Operator:
Next question comes from the line of Mike Harrison with Seaport Research Partners.
Mike Harrison:
If I could -- I wanted to see if I could attack this question around underlying market demand a little bit differently. You've talked about business travel. You talked about maybe some macro concerns in Europe. I was just hoping to get some color more broadly on what you're seeing in terms of consumer behavior in an inflationary environment. Are there any signs at this point that inflation is starting to drag on consumer spending, I guess that would show up maybe in restaurant foot traffic. But most of us were not covering this space the last time inflation was this strong. So I guess any historical perspective you can provide would be very helpful.
Christophe Beck:
Yes, a few things. First, that kind of inflation, none of us has really experienced that. I guess our parents did. I was not in business. So last time, it truly happened here 30 or 40 years ago. so it's totally extreme, totally unusual as we all know. So a few things here. First, we don't see a slowdown of demand yet. So that's a good news. But if we look at restaurants, especially in the US, if I look at the data that we get from the industry, you clearly see a slowdown of demand, which is most probably related to inflationary pressure because of oil, because of COVID, because of mortgages, you name it. But that's very early. So those are indications that are probably so important to follow. The third thing and last thing that I'd say as well here is that when we move through slower times or more extreme recessionary times, which we don't assume it's going to happen in '22, could happen in '23, who knows, obviously, that we've gone through many times as a company. And the good thing with the Ecolab model is that, yes, the growth slows down but we are still ahead of the market growth because we gained market share because we've all been discussed before in terms of new business, innovation, expansion of offering and so on there. So that helps us grow faster than the overall market and kind of dampen the recession that we might have on our top line. And most importantly, in more difficult times for our customers, they need us more because our value proposition, as you know, is helping customers get better results at the lower total cost, that's been true for 99 years as a company. So in more difficult times, potentially recessionary times, customers need even more what we're doing, which have been so reasons why Ecolab has been doing so quite well during slower or recessionary times.
Mike Harrison:
And then second question on the high tech opportunity. I believe that's mostly centered around water and going into semiconductor fabs as well as data centers. Can you talk a little bit about your market position there particularly now that you've combined with Purolite. And are you in a position to win more than your fair share of opportunities as we feed some of this fab capacity expansion?
Christophe Beck:
Absolutely, it's a fascinating business, which used to be part of like industries, our water business that was serving hotels, like manufacturing and so on. And now we've created a dedicated division that combines data centers and microelectronics. Obviously, they're related,but different. The main driver for data centers is to help those high tech companies reach their net zero ambition. And I mean you know all of them, they've all made bold commitments that by 2030, for most of them, they want to be zero or positive carbon and the same for water as well. We're the only company that can provide that to them, so that's obviously something we had to get organized in order to get there. And we're making very nice progress by working with those large companies. This is Ecolab at its best because we serve enterprise customers for a very long time, forever, actually. And we have them understand where are they today, how much water do they use, what's the objective to get to zero, what's the road map to get there and drive execution as well towards that while we make sure that we maintain a 99.9% uptime, so for all data centers. Then microelectronics, just to conclude on that, is different but related. We wanted to have the same people because it's the same type of expertise that we need in the field. Well, it's a production of microprocessors and that requires high purity, high quality water, which to a certain extent, we were doing in the past, Ecolab, but we could not do the highest quality of water that's being used in the production process of microprocessors. This is something that we can do now with Purolite which is the new offering that no one else can offer as well, which is helping not only Purolite but our global high tech business. So kind of the beginning of the journey. But so far a very good story where I think that we're in a position that we could truly own that market.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Rosemarie Morbelli with Gabelli Funds.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
I was wondering if you could touch on the progress you are making on Life Sciences. I believe we did not really touch on that particular part of your business during the call.
Christophe Beck:
So Life Sciences has been a great business that we started, I think, five years ago, 2016. But Doug, who we did that. So again, I'm not going to take any credit for that. It's been a great business that's been growing to almost $300 million today, growing double digit, some of the highest margin that we have in the company. And it's a business that's doing well, is having hard comps versus '21 and '20 because it was such a crazy high growth that, that business went through related to COVID demand. But the underlying growth of that business is double digit and will emerge double digits in Q2 or Q3, I don't remember exactly, and will continue very nicely as well as the business. On top of it, because Life Science former Ecolab, if I may say, was really providing solutions to make sure that production lines, clean rooms, factories were safe and protected from any infection risk. Now we add Purolite, obviously, to it, which is purifying the product that's being produced in those production lines. So it creates a one plus one equals three type of proposition like water and food safety when we acquired Nalco as well. So it's going to help Life Sciences grow even faster. Today, together, so it's kind of $700 million, $800 million, growing double digit. We are constrained by capacity right now, as mentioned earlier on the call of the first year first half of this year roughly. But the demand is just getting higher. Two businesses doing really well. Getting together, the offering is even more interesting. We just need to be able to produce what we're selling and that's going to happen during the second half of this year.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
Are you signing up large pharma facilities?
Christophe Beck:
We do, that's where we focus on. So Life Science, Rosemarie, is 80% plus pharma and the balance is cosmetics, the traditional brands. But Life Science for the most part is pharma with now a renewed focus on biopharma on mRNA and monoclonal antibodies, which is really the industry within pharma that's growing the fastest and expected to be 40% of the overall pharma market by 2026 or 2027, so in the next few years are really interesting.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
And then I was wondering, given the stock price decline, which continued today. Are you considering accelerating repurchases?
Christophe Beck:
Well, it's what we've announced a few weeks ago or a month ago, I don't remember exactly the timing. I might ask maybe, Scott, if you want to give some perspective as well on that.
Scott Kirkland:
As we announced in March that we are repurchasing $500 million of shares during the year. And through Q1, as you might have seen that we repurchased a little more than half of that and we'll continue at that pace that repurchase program, depending upon market conditions, but also while maintaining our commitment to return to A range credit metrics by the end of next year.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
Any way should nothing improve any way, you can expand that $500 million, or do you need -- do we need to wait until next year before you have -- will you take another look at it?
Scott Kirkland:
I think we'll keep pace on that $500 million this year. Again, as I mentioned, we want to make sure that we're committed to returning to these A-range level metrics by the end of 2023.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Andy Wittman with Robert W. Barid.
Andrew Wittmann:
I guess I just wanted to follow up on the earlier question around free cash flow. I think that question was centered more around working capital, and you said it'd be kind of like historical levels. But Scott, it looks like if you back into your EPS guidance into net income that kind of walks back up to around $1.5 billion of adjusted net income. Historically, I guess you guys have said about 95% is a good way of thinking about kind of free cash flow for Ecolab. So is that applicable for this year with higher-than-average growth rates and inflation. I guess that's the other way of kind of asking that question. But is basically that end up backs you into about $1.4 billion of free cash flow, is that the right kind of order of magnitude? And can you just comment again, if you could, on the CapEx budget for the year as well?
Scott Kirkland:
Just on your first question, yes, your math is about right in that mid sort of 90% range, which is our historical cash conversion. So that would be where we would expect the year on free cash flows to be. And then as we think about CapEx, talked a little bit about this after the fourth quarter, and we'll expect CapEx to return to sort of our historical levels, which is like 5.5% to 6%. And as you're probably aware, about half of that CapEx that we do is merchandising equipment, which is at customer locations. And so that will grow as the sales grow and as new business grows.
Operator:
Our final question is from the line of Kevin McVeigh with Credit Suisse.
Kevin McVeigh:
Christophe, I wonder any just client reaction to the price increases? I know you were thoughtful through COVID. So are they more accepted given how thoughtful you were through the COVID process, or just any puts and takes? I mean obviously, everyone is seeing a lot of inflationary pressure, but just any thoughts from a client perspective?
Christophe Beck:
I'm really pleased with what we've done in pricing. So let's keep in mind, we have to overcome $1 billion over $1 billion over 18 months, so starting some mid last year towards the end of this year. So 18 months is a very short period of time as well. And we want to make sure that we do that in achieving two things. The first one is that we stay or get ahead of the inflationary curve. We've done it last year. We'll do it as well so this year as mentioned. We were on a path. So to be now basically ahead of the inflationary curve in 2022 that was prewar in Eastern Europe. Now it's postponed a few months, but add the energy surcharge to that and we'll get to the right place as well. So it's on one hand, making sure we cover inflation and at the same time that we do it in a way that we grow our margins as well down the road. Second objective we have is to make sure we're not losing customers. While we do that, it's not a 100% play, obviously, but that we can maintain 90% plus of our customers, which we're doing. We haven't lost any major customers while we were doing that because we need to keep in mind that we're a growth company. I want to make sure we keep our organic momentum, which is extremely strong right now while we get the pricing right, while we keep the customers because down the road, that's the beauty of the Ecolab model when your fundamentals are right of new business of innovation, of pricing, of customer retention and that inflation eases you get very significant windfall in margin, which we know always happens. The question is, when is it exactly going to happen. But so far, so good. I'm very pleased with what the team has been doing in terms of pricing, while keeping the customers and driving growth at the same time.
Operator:
At this time, we’ve reached of our question-and-answer session. I'll now turn the floor back to Mike Monahan for closing remarks.
Mike Monahan:
Thanks, Rob. That wraps up our first quarter conference call. This call and the associated discussion and slides have been available for replay on our Web site. Thank you for your time and participation, and our best wishes for the rest of the day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.
Operator:
Greetings, and welcome to the Ecolab Fourth Quarter 2021 Earnings Release Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. At this time, it is now my pleasure to introduce Mike Monahan, Senior Vice President, External Relations. Mr. Monahan, you may now begin.
Mike Monahan:
Thank you. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Ecolab's Fourth Quarter Conference Call. With me today are Christophe Beck, Ecolab's CEO and Scott Kirkland, our new CFO. A discussion of our results, along with our earnings release and the slides referencing the quarter's results are available on Ecolab's website at ecolab.com/investor. Please take a moment to read the cautionary statements in these materials, which state that this teleconference and the associated supplemental materials include estimates of future performance. These are forward-looking statements, and actual results could differ materially from those projected. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are described under the Risk Factors section in our most recent Form 10-K and in our posted materials. We also refer you to the supplemental diluted earnings per share information in the release. Starting with a brief overview, the strong fourth quarter sales were driven by accelerated pricing, business wins and product innovation with double-digit gains in our institutional and specialty and other segments as well as continued strong growth in the Industrial segment. These were partially offset by negative COVID-related effects on business activity and an unprecedented estimated 20% increase in year-on-year delivered product cost and supply constraints in the quarter. We closed out a challenging year in 2021 in which we invested in key business drivers and aggressively drove pricing, innovation and productivity. We also successfully managed through substantial supply constraints and cost increases to deliver the strong full year earnings increase. Looking ahead, recent programs, including Ecolab Science Certified and Net Zero have further differentiated Ecolab's value proposition and enable us to create better customer outcomes and reduced environmental impact, all while simultaneously reducing their costs. Our new business wins and innovation pipelines are at record levels and new market focus areas are well positioned to drive growth and our leading digital capabilities continue to add competitive advantage. We expect to leverage these drivers to once again drive strong sales volume and pricing gains and along with productivity and cost reduction actions more than offset the higher cost to yield another year of double-digit earnings growth. Our strong business momentum, along with our enhanced value proposition and favorable macro trends position us well to leverage the post-COVID environment and deliver further superior long-term shareholder returns. And now here's Christoph Beck with his comments.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you so much, Mike, and good afternoon, everyone. The fourth quarter showed once again that the global environment remains very dynamic, presenting new challenges that we've learned to turn into long-term opportunities. Our top line momentum reached 10% or 9% organic in a constrained environment. Institutional & Specialty grew 19%, Pest Elimination 10% and Industrial remained strong, growing 8% in the quarter, and our new business and innovation pipelines remain really strong. At the same time, COVID came back during the fall, especially in North America and in Europe. As we all know, inflation kept rising substantially and still, top line gain momentum, including pricing, which accelerated to 4% as we exited the quarter. This was required to compensate for significant incremental costs from supply constraints and much high inflation pressure on our raw material and freight costs, discussed by close to 20% in the fourth quarter, nearly double the rate we saw in the third. And then close to a total of $1 per share unfavorable impact for the full year with almost half of that in Q4 alone. So once again, our team demonstrated our commitment to protect our customers' operations at all time and in any condition to ensure food, power, water and healthcare supply are protected while we also keep enhancing our margins for the long run. We now enter 2022 with confidence and well aware that the environment might change, but we will keep doing our very best to stay ahead. We expect the global economy to remain strong even if not as a perfect straight line. The exact timing for the end of COVID impact remains hard to predict, but we expect it to be mostly behind us by the middle of this year. We also expect inflation to remain at a high level, at least for the first half of the year, while we expect it to ease during the second half, and we're getting ready for this, too. We will keep driving growth by fueling the institutional recovery, which is going really well by generating strong new business by investing in our new growth engines like life sciences, data centers or microelectronics, and by making sure we remain 1 of the very best places to work for the most promising and diverse global talent. We'll keep addressing inflation by further enhancing our productivity through digital automation as we've done over the past few years by leveraging high-margin innovation and naturally by accelerating our value pricing. For the full year '22, we expect raw materials and freight costs to further increase with inflation remaining high before it eases during the second half of the year. Our full year pricing expectation for '22 is expected to be in the 5% to 6% range, which combined with our steady productivity work is expected to get ahead of inflation dollar in the first half and enhanced margins in the second half of the year and certainly beyond as the Ecolab model has proven many times. All these actions should lead to a strong '22 with strong top line and adjusted earnings growth in the low teens for the full year and a first quarter with very healthy sales growth and a flattish EPS as pricing keeps building fast. Finally, as we've done throughout the pandemic and against major market disruptions, we will remain focused on the future. For us, it's all about delivering long-term value to our customers and to our shareholders, while managing the short term. Our mission of protecting people and the resources better to life is as important as it's ever been. Our opportunity has never been larger as we chase a global market that's today greater than $150 billion and growing fast. We have confidence that we will look back on this period and truly feel we did the right things the right way by protecting our teams and our customers when they needed us the most and by protecting our company in ways that made Ecolab even stronger and more relevant. As the infection prevention company, helping customers protect their customers and their businesses with Ecolab Science Certified and as the sustainability company, helping our customers progress on the Net Zero journey, all of which leading to strong top line and consistent, reliable double-digit EPS growth and ultimately getting us back on our pre-COVID earnings trajectory. I look forward to your questions.
Mike Monahan:
Thanks, Christoph. That concludes our formal remarks. As a final note, before we begin Q&A, we plan to hold our annual tour of our booth at the National Restaurant Association show in Chicago on Monday, May 23. If you have any questions, please contact my office. Operator, would you please begin the question-and-answer period?
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question today is from the line of Tim Mulrooney with William Blair.
TimMulrooney:
Yes. I just have two, not surprisingly on raw materials. So the first 1 is now that the year is complete, I was hoping we could get some numbers around raw material cost inflation. Can you tell us how much was raw material inflation in 2021? And then what is the expectation for raw material inflation in '22 that's built into your guide?
Christophe Beck:
Yes. Great question. Thank you, Tim. So that's the core topic, obviously, for all of us. For us, it's raw materials and freight, as you know, that we combine as well. And if we look at 2021, it was roughly 10% of the increase we saw in the past year. We spiked in Q4, as you've heard and read as well to 20%. So 10% for the full year in '21, we expect to stay pretty high for the first half of '22 at the same level, similar to what we've seen in Q4 and then to ease during the second half of the year, which leads to a roughly sort of 15% or 10% in '21, roughly 15% in '22. And since raw materials and freight represent 1/4 of our sales roughly, our pricing plan is well aligned with that and should allow us during the first half to get the heads of the dollars that we get in terms of inflation and then improving the margin during the second half, assuming that the assumptions happen as planned.
Tim Mulrooney:
Yes. Okay. You kind of started to address my second question, but I'm going to ask it anyway in case you have anything else. So just following up on that, assuming oil prices stay about where they are today, would you expect all else equal to see gross margin expansion after '22? The reason I ask, I mean, if we kind of step back and we look at your gross margin, it was 44%. We've seen it go from 44% down to 41% over the last few years. And I'm wondering if this is kind of the new normal, this 41%, 42-ish percent or if you do expect to see normalization back to that historical average of closer to 44% over time? And how you plan to get there?
Christophe Beck:
Yes, we absolutely expect to get back over time to where we were pre-inflation start or pre-COVID wherever is the start, obviously. When you look back as well, taking industrial, for instance, in the past years, look at operating income performance, the margin performance they had in 2020, which was north of 20%. And that was really as an outcome of all the work they did in pricing and the raw material market that trended towards lower level as such. So very good performance in 2020. That's a perfect example of what's going to happen in the future. Exactly when, I don't know, Tim, but we expect improvement in the second half of '22 and definitely over time to get back to where we were and go beyond that as well.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Manav Patnaik, Barclays.
Manav Patnaik:
Christophe, I was just hoping -- just thinking a little bit more towards the longer-term growth trajectory like ex reopening. The whole hygiene and sanitization theme, which is supposed to be elevated, and that's why you have the Ecolab Science Certified. Maybe could you give us some numbers around what that looked like in 2021? And will it be elevated pre-pandemic now or how do you guys think about that?
Christophe Beck:
Yes. Good question, Manav. It's going to be higher than 2019, which means pre-COVID, but it's going to be lower than during COVID for sure. In 2021, sanitizing sales were close to the double-digit increase versus 2019. And I think it's going to remain at that elevated level for the foreseeable future and especially with our Ecolab Science Certified program, which is going really, really well. Customers will use higher level of hygiene going forward, especially because their guests and customers are expecting more of it as well. Some of the ease that we've seen in '21 was also related to the fact that our restaurants and hotel had limited staffing as well to do all the cleaning and sanitization, which probably has pressured a little bit, the sanitizing sales but still quite happy versus 2019, as mentioned, close to double digit and expect it to continue on that trend in the years to come.
Manav Patnaik:
Got it. Appreciate that. And you guys have obviously done a relatively good job here in managing all the cost inflation. I suspect a lot of your competitors might be struggling more. And my question is more, does that -- does that mean you have a greater potential M&A pipeline that you could be executing on or are you not looking at it that way?
Christophe Beck:
Well, we usually focus in terms of M&A, Manav, on very good strong companies. So we're not looking first and foremost, at companies that are not doing that great, but I would not exclude that. But you're right that we are in a very good position. You've seen our pricing evolution, so exiting Q4 with 4% and confident in 2022, so to get to 5%, 6% as well. That's demonstrating the value that we can create. And if we do that over time as we always do it, Manav, in our company, it's to make sure that we can keep those customers and keep those customers for the long term as well, which is going to improve as well our competitive situation.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Chris Parkinson with Mizuho.
Chris Parkinson:
Great. Just as difficult as it is to discuss anything normalized these days, just how should investors be conceptualizing your true earnings power in terms of, let's say, the eventual raw material moderation put together with, I'd say, continuing pricing momentum, transportation, logistics and labor? Just all in the context of, let's say, end markets rebounding in '22 and '23 and market share gains. You've already spoken about GM normality, but just how should we think about this in terms of earnings power for '23, '24? And are there any extra considerations I didn't mention?
Christophe Beck:
Yes. Thanks for your question, Chris. Yes, long term, I feel quite confident that we're going to get back to this pre-COVID earnings trajectory for a few reasons. Here, the first one, institutional is going to keep recovering and it's 1 of our highest margin businesses. So just from a business mix perspective, so things are going to improve obviously, as well. Then we have industrial that's going to keep growing fast, and that's creating leverage as well in terms of absorption that we have. And you mentioned, obviously, the price versus inflation, we've demonstrated that over and over our history as a company that during those inflationary period, well, we end up with a gross margin that's higher than where it was prior to that cycle as well. Then you add businesses like Purolite, which are very high margin and growing very fast as well. And last but not least, all the work that we've done in terms of digital productivity, automation of transactional work that's going to help our SG&A improvement as well in the years to come. So you bring all that together, those are all positive drivers for our margin improvement.
Chris Parkinson:
That's helpful. And just as a quick follow-up, the last several earnings releases even through the difficult times of COVID, you've been mentioning market share gains fairly consistently. As we stand here today at the beginning of 2022, can you just give us a quick update on the market share gains by segments where you've been pleasantly surprised even perhaps disappointed based on your perceived opportunities? And just how you'd expect your new baseline to generate incremental earnings power over the next few years?
Christophe Beck:
Yes. So the question on market share is always a good one, different by business. But if you think about it's a growing 10% in the fourth quarter, that's faster than the general economic environment. So just macro, it's indicating that we're gaining shares in average. But if you take institutional, for instance, and taking the big example of restaurants in the U.S, in Q4, our business was 9% down or 91% of 2019, when the traffic in dining rooms, which is the most important for us was down 33% versus 2019. So that's obviously showing so how much market share we've gained. In Industrial, the 7%, 8% growth that we have -- well, it's a combination of very different businesses, where you have paper, 15-plus percent that’s definitely a place where we gain a lot of share, you take data centers as well where we're growing extremely fast as well with the objective to be really the best player in that market as well long term. Life Sciences especially as well, so with Purolite where we're growing faster than most of our competitors out there, always difficult to compare. So you look at it macro, Chris, with the 10% faster than general economic growth that leads to good share increases and examples like the 1 I just mentioned, are good indications as well that our position is improving over time.
Operator:
Next question come from the line of John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets.
John McNulty:
Can you speak to how it seems like there’s two different angles to it. One, that it's nicking your customers where maybe you can be helpful and come up with incremental solutions for them. But I would think given the number of feet on the street that you have as well, it's something you have to deal with internally. Can you kind of speak to the pressure that you're going to face and how maybe you can offset that with revenue coming in by helping out your customers?
Christophe Beck:
Yes. As you mentioned, John. So we look at it in both ways. First, how do we help our customers who do not only have wage inflation issue, but I have a hard time to find people, as we know, so in restaurants and in hotels. So less people more expensive. So our solutions that are automating a lot of the cleaning work, sanitation work that they need to do is helping, obviously, customers, and that's 1 of the reasons why we're growing nicely in those markets. Now back to our own wages. The way I look at it is in a reasonable way. So for '22, we're trying to stay competitive with the rest of the market. Our retention of our talent in the company has been very strong over the last 2 years when many have been struggling as well. That's indicating that we're doing more right than not in terms of how we're managing as well wages. And last but not least, we always make sure that we focus on our key talent and those ones we support the very specifically and making sure that they stay happy and stay longer in our company. And the last point, just to get back to your question is what -- on productivity. The whole digital work that we've done over the last many years is really paying off. You see it in our SG&A improvement that's improving year in and year out, that's going to help mitigate as well the wage inflation that we will face as well. But net-net, a good story.
John McNulty:
Got it. Got it. No, that's helpful. And then maybe just from -- a little bit more color on the raw material side. It sounds like you think raw materials and freight are going to come off in the back half of the year. I guess can you give us a little bit more granularity or quantify how much you think it -- or how much of a decline you kind of modeled in when you're looking for these low teens EPS growth for 2022?.
Christophe Beck:
The best way to look at it is basically that the first half should be very similar to what we see in the fourth quarter. So the 20% that we've talked about is roughly what we're expecting as well. So for the first half of '22. And we expect that the rate of growth for the second half of the year to be, I don't know, half of that. But you compare to a high base, obviously. So it's not going positive in terms of dollars. It's just that rate of growth is getting lower. We know it's going to go down, John, at some point. The only question is when. And the good news with Ecolab is that the moment that inflation eases and goes down, that's where we create the best margin enhancement as we've demonstrated in Industrial in 2020.
John McNulty:
Got it. So just to be clear, the cost you're assuming they don't go down in the back half of the year, you're assuming the trajectory slows. Am I understanding that right?
Christophe Beck:
Exactly, yes, John. And as mentioned on early answer with Tim, it's expecting -- so kind of 10% we had last year rose and freight cost inflation, and we expect to go up to 15% for the full year in '22. So that's the way we assume it right now.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.
Vincent Andrews:
Could you maybe just expand on the raws and freight a little bit just in terms of what the breakdown is in terms of the increase you were seeing in the fourth quarter and continuing into this year? How much of it is incremental on the raw side versus the freight and logistics and COVID disruption? And also maybe speak to if there's any change in the mix of raws that are giving you problems.
Christophe Beck:
It's not giving us problems. It was in 2021, Vincent, 3 quarter roughly of the inflation pressure was in Industrial. That's evolving as well because it's not always the same raw materials that are increasing across our businesses and in various geographies as well at the same time. So in a way, this is a good thing. So it's becoming more spread out across the businesses and geographies, not just Industrial, especially North America. But freight is becoming the new drivers of our cost inflation as everybody knows out there. This is not specific to us as well. So that's the new 1 that we need to deal with. The very good news on this 1 is, on 1 hand, we're well organized on the logistics side. We have a lot of former Amazon people as well as leading our logistics, that helps. And we've engaged as well over the last 12 months and even more in '22 as well new logistics policies, surcharges making sure that we not only optimize our logistics but get paid as well for any increase that we might have.
Vincent Andrews:
Okay. And could you maybe just give us your outlook for this year in health care and Life Sciences?
Christophe Beck:
You mean, Vincent, our outlook in terms of what?
Vincent Andrews:
Just in terms of how you expect the business to perform as we move through the year?
Christophe Beck:
Like that. Okay. Well, as we've shared, generally, we're entering '22, so in a very good position in terms of business momentum. The 10% that we've delivered in the fourth quarter is something that we expect to kind of stay quite steady over '22 the mix between volume and pricing. Obviously, it's going to evolve since we're going to move pricing closer to 5%, 6% as mentioned as well. So kind of a steady, good momentum. And for the EPS growth, as mentioned, we expect it to be in the low teens for the full year. The first half is going to be more on the lower side and the second half is going to be on the higher side of the 10 because of the margin improvement driven by pricing going steadily up and inflation easing, as I just mentioned before with John.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of John Roberts with UBS.
John Roberts:
Welcome, Scott. And congratulations, Christophe, on the Barron's 100 sustainability ranking.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, John.
John Roberts:
Are you still adding new sign-ups for Ecolab Science Certified, or are you just enjoying the benefits of everybody who signed up early on. I don't know if there's fatigue out there as this goes on, that there's less interest in signing up for new programs?
Christophe Beck:
No, we don't really see any slowdown on that front, which is a good sign. It's even taken time, interestingly enough, so for many customers to kind of get on board really understanding what it would mean for their own brand. McDonald's has been a perfect example as well. Wanted to make sure that it was right for them, it was supporting their brand the right way that it was well perceived with their guests as well. So they came fairly late in the COVID journey, if I may say. So if anything, it's more interest, not less interest, which is encouraging because, to your point, John, we thought that it would be mostly COVID related. And now it's becoming more interesting, so for restaurants, hotels, offices to make sure that the places where the welcome people are safe and healthy.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Ashish Sabadra with RBC.
Ashish Sabadra:
I just wanted to focus on water, which continues to show really strong momentum, delivering another solid 8% growth in the fourth quarter. How should we think about that momentum going into '22?
Christophe Beck:
Well, I'm a bit passionate about water I've been leading the business for quite a while, Ashish. So this is something that I believe we are uniquely positioned here to keep growing for 2 reasons, on 1 hand -- well, 3 reasons. On 1 hand, water scarcity becomes a bigger issue because we're not going to get more water on earth, but we're going to use more water as well going forward. So that's the first point. Second, you have always more companies committing to net-zero carbon and water by 2050, getting half there, so by 2030 or whatever the commitment that they have, not only because it's good for water, but if you save water, you save energy as well at the same time. And always more companies are realizing that they can get -- well, both benefits, getting less issues from a water perspective and reducing the carbon footprint same time. So the only 1 who can really help companies get to the net-zero, which is kind of a new trend, which is great for us. And the last point I'd mention that well, we're probably the only company that can do it at a very high margin as well at the same time because we bring so much science expertise and digital technology as well in there. So bringing all 3 together, water scarcity, need for net-zero and the fact that we can do it at high margin makes me really bullish about that business going forward.
Ashish Sabadra:
That's very helpful color. And maybe if I can just ask a quick follow-up on the commercial pest elimination business. Again, a small business, but has been a strong growth engine for you. And with 1 -- particularly 1 of the large players in commercial pest control getting acquired, how do you think about the competitive environment changing going forward? And separately, would you also consider potential M&As to expand your position in the commercial pest control?
Christophe Beck:
So maybe to your point of a fairly small business, it's almost a billion for us. So it's quite significant. It's extremely profitable, and it's growing really fast, it grew 10% during the fourth quarter and it's been growing during COVID as well. So just to show the resilience, the strength of that business. And the other thing I really like with pest is that it's a perfect complement to everything else that we do. In a hospital when you think about infection prevention, you need to eliminate pest. In a food and beverage plant, you need to bring pest elimination as well, so to make sure that you do not create food safety issue, the same in a hotel, the same in restaurants. So it's a perfect fit to our value proposition as a company. And to your point, in terms of M&A, well one of our competitors are getting into a big M&A now means a lot of distractions for them, a company that we respect a lot, by the way. But when they're busy doing integration, those are the best times for us ultimately to gain share. And in terms of us doing M&A in the pest elimination field, we don't comment in details, but we definitely open to consider as well as we have in the past, we will in the future as well in businesses that are so valuable for us.
Operator:
Next question is from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies.
Laurence Alexander:
I guess 2 questions about sort of lag effects. The first is with all the volatility that you -- that we've seen in the last couple of years and how Ecolab has improved their portfolio, should your pace of share gains pick up over the next couple of years as customers recalibrate and sort of are able to -- in a more stable environment, sort of reassess kind of your relative position versus peers? And secondly, from the sales of it, if you factor in the water and the productivity and the digitalization and some of the other initiatives you've mentioned, should your top line growth be faster than in the last say, 10, 15-year period? And can the pace of productivity gains improve compared to the last decade or so?
Christophe Beck:
Great question. So I see 3 big questions, all related obviously, here. So I'll try to be as extent as I can on that. So first, in terms of share, as mentioned before, the fact that we're growing fast in most of our businesses. So it's not just 1 business that's growing and all the other ones are going slow, is a good indication that we're gaining share. And obviously, once the whole craziness of the world is behind us that's going to pay dividend as well because we're going to be in an even stronger position afterwards. So it's always been the focus for us. We have this mantra in the company, in doubt go and sell something, which is pretty useful in those unpredictable times. Well, that's going to pay dividend for the future. So I feel good about that, which leads me to your second question in terms of top line momentum. Yes, I firmly believe that the growth that we will see in the years to come is going to be ahead of the growth that we see in pre-COVID, if there is any such thing as well. And in terms of productivity, with all the investments that we've made in ERP technology, in field technology, in remote monitoring for our customers, in AI, all that is, not only pay dividend right now as you can see as well over the past few years our SG&A productivity has improved, but I believe it's going to improve even better in the future as well. When you bring all 3 together, I think it should lead to a performance that's ahead of what we've seen pre-COVID.
Operator:
Next question is from the line of Scott Schneeberger with Oppenheimer.
Scott Schneeberger:
I think I'll bring Scott in on the first one. CapEx increased as a percent of revenue in 2021, probably pretty logical given the environment. But it's still below the 6% levels prepandemic. Where do you see CapEx in 2022 and perhaps beyond in some major categories of spend going forward?
Scott Kirkland:
Scott, thanks for the question. Yes, it certainly was lower. And as you know, of our historical range, we've been around 6% of sales on CapEx. And during -- as sales have been lower relative to '19, there's a big portion of our CapEx that's in merchandising equipment with customers. So as the customer rebounds come back, expect that CapEx to be similar to those historical trends around 6%.
Scott Schneeberger:
Great. And then, Christophe, just a high level or perhaps both of you. It's been a while since there's been discussion of the efficiency initiatives and kind of the overriding long-term theme of cost savings. And it's been a tumultuous time period, but just curious, how are you progressing on that? How should we be looking at that as we approach the end of '22 and '23?
Christophe Beck:
Yes. Let me make a quick comment on this one, and I'll pass it back to Scott, who has the details here. The efficiency initiatives that we've had over the past few years have progressed really well. And let's keep in mind that those initiatives were not pure cost savings initiatives. Those were initiatives that we're leveraging all the investments that we had made in the past in ERP technology, in digital technology and all that. And as I've mentioned before, -- not only it's delivered great results so far. I think it's going to give even better margin improvement as well going forward. So it's not something that we're going to stop doing, but we're going to do that in a more organic way, so going forward. But with that, Scott maybe a few comments on that.
Scott Kirkland:
Sure. Thanks, Christoph. Yes. As Christoph said, we progressed very well on it. If we think about the 2 big programs and we have programs going on all the time with the 2 big programs, the 2020 and the institutional advancement program, through the end of 2021, we were north of 90% complete from a savings and cost perspective on both of those, and we'll have a little bit of a tail into 2022 and 2023 to wrap up those programs.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Steve Byrne with Bank of America.
Steve Byrne:
You've had Purolite now a couple of months, how do you view the expectations about profitability from that business relative to what you previously had in both industrial business wallet share gains and on the Life Sciences, anything that has changed your outlook on that?
Christophe Beck:
No. We're really happy with that acquisition. As you mentioned, we're kind of 2 months in. So we're really at the beginning. Our first objective was really to do no harm and making sure that they can keep growing as they have in the past, and they're doing really well. We're not working on any significant integration because it's not a synergy play or a cost synergy play. It's purely a growth synergy that we see. And the biggest challenge that we have, which is an interesting challenge is that we need to keep building enough manufacturing capacity in order to keep growing, which is a challenge that all industry is having, we had, which is good. And we have 2 extensions, a new plant in the U.S. and the extension in the U.K. that's supposed to be coming in line as well in the first half of '22, and that's going to give as well an inflection point for the second half. So, so far, really happy with what we're seeing with Purolite.
Steve Byrne:
I want quick follow-up on that one. Do you expect operating results out of that business to more than offset the amortization expense? Or do you think you will change your view and not include amortization in your adjusted earnings? And if you don't mind, can you also comment on what is the average number of months between your purchases of raw materials and when it flows through COGS?
Christophe Beck:
So on the question on amortization, we've been very clear on how we see '22 to be neutral. Obviously related to the first question since business is evolving as expected the neutral is going to happen as well in '22. But it's important to keep in mind that the amortization is $0.26 in '22. So it's relevant and it's all cash that's coming, obviously, since the amortization is a noncash item as well as such. So we're looking at what other companies are also doing in Life Science arena, and it's usually handled definitely than what we've done in the past. I'm not indicating that we're going to change anything, but we're going to share with you how much is the amortization. So at the same time, well, you can know what's the true cash return of that business since we want to know it as well.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Wittmann with Baird.
Andrew Wittmann:
Great. I guess I just wanted to start out with a, I guess, a 2-part question on the revenue outlook. I think I just wanted to clarify the first part here. Christophe, in your prepared remarks, I think you said that pricing was going to be 5% to 6% for the year. And I think in your Q&A, you mentioned that pricing will ramp to 5% or 6%. I guess the question I wanted to clarify is, if it's going to be 5% or 6% for the year, presumably 4% for the fourth quarter, it would suggest that the exit rate in 4Q could be above 6%. So could you just clarify the cadence throughout the year that gets you to the 5% to 6%. And then maybe for Scott, could you talk about what FX could mean to your revenue performance or growth here in '22 with current rates where they are?
Christophe Beck:
Andy, I'll take the first one, and I'll give the FX to Scott. On pricing, is as mentioned, so we're exiting at 4% of the fourth quarter, moving towards 5% for the first quarter and for the full year, so being between 5% and 6%. So it's pretty steady, and that's our current plan, considering all we know in terms of inflation. As mentioned before, rolls and freight inflation are not dealt with exactly the same way, but relatively steady. So between these 4% and 6% during '22 which leads to this average of 5% to 6% ultimately. And Scott, on the FX?
Scott Kirkland:
Yes, certainly. Yes, as you might expect, just given where rates are going in the U.S., the expected increases during the year, we will have some drag as a result of FX, it's probably in that $0.10 range in 2022.
Andrew Wittmann:
Okay. And then I guess I wanted to just ask kind of a follow-up here, just regarding the special gains and charges that we expect here that you expect in 2022. You kind of mentioned that you're 90% done with the programs, Purolite, I guess, because it's not an integration cost synergy play, shouldn't have too much there I don't think. And then the other big bucket, it looks like the COVID costs in '21 were notable. But with COVID subsiding and just life getting used to COVID, it kind of feels like the special gains and charges should be less in ‘22. Am I thinking about that the right way, Scott? Or are there other things that I should be considering in that?
Scott Kirkland:
Yes. As you talk about the big buckets, there will be ongoing special charges with Purolite next year, but we did have the big impact from the purchase accounting including the inventory step up in 2021. As it relates to 2022, as you think about -- as you mentioned COVID, the COVID really had a couple of big buckets in it. And it was pay protection that was a large piece of that. We also had the inventory reserve that we disclosed. And the pay protection, can't predict how COVID's going to react, but expect that variable pay protection to be less in 2022. We also had some medical costs in testings. There will be a little bit of a tail on that I expect, but given our pace of COVID, we expect that to be less in 2022 than it was in 2021.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of use Rosemarie Morbelli with Gabelli.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
I was wondering if you could touch on Russia and Ukraine, how much of an impact, let's say, that we go to war, which we probably won't. But nevertheless, how large are those 2 regions for your business?
Christophe Beck:
Yes. Well, I hope that nothing is going to happen, obviously. So too many human lives would be impacted. For us, it's a reasonably business. It used to be much bigger when we had Upstream Energy, as you know. And today, it's less than 0.5% for the whole company. So for us, it's not so much a business issue. It could have an impact on energy cost, but that's an indirect impact. And for us, obviously, as a people company, it's making sure that everyone from our team is in a good place. Unfortunately, we had some experience a few years back when Crimea was in focus and we've managed that really well. We have a good team, even if it's a small one. So Rosemary, no big business impact, maybe on energy, and we want to make sure that our team is doing well.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
Okay. That is great. And so I was surprised by the double-digit growth in institutional, considering that there is COVID that not everyone is back on the road. We still have mask and not a lot of people are going to a hotel. Can you give us a little more detail as to why that performance was impressive?
Christophe Beck:
Well, it's a good business, which is really in leading positions, that helps. We haven't lost customers. We have roughly the same number of units as well than we had pre-COVID. They're buying a similar number of solutions as well. We have a lot of new business as well that we've acquired. They've been extremely good during the COVID times in new business generation, pricing has been good as well. Ecolab Science Certified has been good as well. And customers have needed us more than ever during COVID. So as they reopen, while we keep growing, and honestly, Rosemary, we were expecting in Q4 to grow even faster except that Omicron changed the plans a little bit, and it stalled at the Q3 level of growth. But that's going to come when hopefully, COVID is going to move behind us. So I'm really confident in that business going forward.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
Great. And if I may. Your SG&A ratio was some 32.6% in 2017 or thereabout. And obviously, you have made progress as it is down to 28% in 2020, and you talked about the factors that are going to impact this ratio. How low do you think is reasonable to think you can go as a ratio to sales?
Christophe Beck:
It's a great question. Well, it's not going to reach 0, that I'm sure, but it's going to be better than where we are today. Keep in mind that we have a very large sales team. They drive a lot, for instance, to go and visit our 3 million customers around the world. Digital technology is helping us managing and serving customers remotely as well. That reduces the time that our teams need to travel, that improves, obviously, the SG&A productivity. They do a lot of prep work, preparation works before they go and meet customers or after they've met customers in order to make sure that head office knows the value that's been created. That's getting automated as well as we speak. So with automation and such a large team, I think that we still have a lot of potential not only to improve the productivity but making sure that our teams, Rosemarie, are focused on creating value for our customers instead of moving papers, collecting data or driving on the road.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
Okay. So we can expect -- I mean, reasonably speaking, maybe another 200 basis points?
Christophe Beck:
It's a great question. I don't think it's going to be a straight line, Rosemarie, but it's going to improve every year. And we've demonstrated that for the many past years and it's going to keep improving. What you've seen in the past is what you're going to see in the future.
Operator:
Next question is from the line of Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.
Jeff Zekauskas:
In your Industrial business, your margins were sequentially flat, and you had good volume growth. But your margins in Institutional, where you also had very good volume growth, what were down, I don't know, 350 basis points. Same thing in Healthcare. You had weakness there. Why is there more margin stability in the Industrial business versus the other two? Is it that raw materials are going up less or your price pass-through is more effective? What accounts for the difference in margins between the segments on a sequential basis?
Christophe Beck:
Well, the macro is basically that the share of raw materials and freight cost versus the total P&L is very different business by business. So when you have inflation, the impact on the P&L and the margins is very different business by business, exactly the way you described it. And then it's the speed at which we can drive pricing is different as well, so business by business. Sometimes you have group purchasing organizations. Sometimes it's individual street accounts. This is different. So those are the 2 main drivers, Jeff. The first one is really what's the share of raws and freight for the P&L. And second, it's the speed at which we can increase prices, while keeping customers for the long term as well, which is essential for us. And the combination of both over time creates those distortion that you just mentioned.
Jeff Zekauskas:
Okay. Second question is, in the Institutional business in 2018, you used to make $1 billion, and now you make $566 million. When do you get back to $1 billion? And can you help us out with what your interest expense is for 2022 now that you've bought Purolite?
Christophe Beck:
Yes. So 2 questions, obviously. So I'll leave it up to Scott for the interest piece, a very different question, obviously. In Institutional, keep in mind, Jeff, that we've kept our team intentionally. And thank God, we did that. So when you look at restaurants and hotels today where you need to do your own housekeeping and do your bed yourself because they don't have labor to do it, we would be in a dramatic place today if we didn't keep our team in 2020 when COVID started. So that was totally conscious. We said we're going to maintain the whole team, even though the business went down so quite a bit during COVID. That has a direct impact on our income in that business. So as the business gets back to the 2019 level, which we expect to happen. So this year in '22, well, over time, you're going to get to the same margins than we had before. And on top of it, you get productivity gains as well that are going to improve it. So I feel really good about the trajectory that we have in Institutional. So with that, maybe, Scott, if you can comment --
Scott Kirkland:
Jeff, answering your question on the interest expense. So adjusted interest expense was just north of $180 million in 2021. And as you recall, the -- we had $2.9 billion of debt through the Purolite transactions. And so we'll see it about $45 million higher, call it, roughly $230 million of interest expense in 2022.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners.
Kevin McCarthy:
Christophe, I'd be interested to hear your updated thoughts on the subject of labor. If we think about the first half of '22, do you think that labor-related challenges will be any better or worse or perhaps stable versus the back half of '21?
Christophe Beck:
And Kevin, when you say labor, you mean our labor or our customers' labor or both?
Kevin McCarthy:
I was really referring to downstream among your customers, but if you have meaningful issues internally, I'd like to hear about those as well.
Christophe Beck:
Yes. Thank God, we don't have big issues internally. We've had our share, but we've managed it really well. You've probably heard that we have -- over 95% of our team has been vaccinated as well in the U.S. So it's over 18,000 people that are projected, that has helped us dramatically as well to keep our team operating during that time. So we were in a reasonably good place internally that's been a bit different for our customers as we know. Distribution centers had a hard time as well to unload the trucks. You have retail stores that can't do the cleaning as they're supposed to be doing it. The same in hotels as well because they're having such a hard time to find the right talent as well to do it. So it's having an impact in logistics, and it's having an impact in demand because our customers don't have the people to do the work as well. But it's improving every month. So over time, it's going to improve. But I think it's going to take probably the whole '22 until our customers are in a more stable place.
Kevin McCarthy:
I see. And then secondly, I wanted to come back to the subject of pricing. I think you indicated 5% for the first quarter on a glide path to 5% to 6% for the year. And so that would imply, I think, relatively modest incremental price contributions from here. And so I was tempted to ask you, why not be more aggressive there? Or how would you frame potential for upside to price? I appreciate you have a value-in-use model. But are there some combination of competitive considerations, elasticity or contract terms that would preclude a greater contribution or might you revisit depending on the cost trajectory?
Christophe Beck:
Well, you've given a few answers as well at the same time. But I'd say -- so first, when you say the 5% in Q1, so it's going to happen during Q1, as you know, so pricing is happening exactly. So as quarters evolve as well. So we crossed the 4% in Q4. We will cross the 5% in Q1. When exactly? I don't know, so we'll see what it nets out for the first quarter as an individual quarter. But for the full year, we feel reasonably confident that the 5% to 6%, we will deliver it. And that feels like the right amount of pricing in order to get our margins back to where they should be. And to your point, if inflation happens differently than what we've assumed, as I described it in my opening remarks, well, we will adjust as we did, as well over the past few months. But what's absolutely critical, the way we think about pricing is that we want to keep pricing for the long term. We're not a cyclical company and have no ambition to become a cyclical company, which means that when we get pricing from customers, it's based on the value that we create for them on the long run. And when inflation moves behind us, well, it sticks as well. And that has an impact on the speed at which we can get pricing. If we were a chemical company, pure play, well, we would go much faster, but we would have to give it back at some point. This is not what we do. So we go slower, it's having a lower impact on margin for a while. But ultimately, it's paying off big dividend on our margins. And the last point I'll make is raws and freight for us is 25% of our sales. So the inflation that you get, the 10% I talked about for '21, well it's on 25% of our sales. So when you compare the 10% on the 25% to the pricing of 5% to 6%, you get to a reasonably good place.
Operator:
Next question is from Mike Harrison with Seaport Research Partners.
Mike Harrison:
Christophe, you've talked a little bit about innovation in the Institutional business. It's been a while since we've had the restaurant show in Chicago for you to showcase some of your new products. So I'm looking forward to that in May. But maybe give us a little bit of a preview, I guess. Are there some key products around warewashing or hard service sanitizing or food safety that you're excited about launching here in 2022?
Christophe Beck:
Well, we do. As you know, Mike, at the same time, so it's not just about product for us, it's about programs. So where you put all the products together. But to name one in Institutional, especially driven by COVID, so we brought in the market over the last 12 months a whole range of products that are killing COVID within 15 seconds. It was a remarkable achievement, especially when customers do not have the labor force as we discussed before. So to do the work, well, if it can clean effectively, very quickly, this is not only good for guests, but it's good for customers as well at the same time. So this whole program is very interesting, and you'll see it at the NRA. At the same time, I've mention as well the Ecolab Science Certified, which brings all the programs together in order to make sure that your guests are protected. And that's -- it's a good story in terms of how many units we're getting, but you need to keep in mind that in order to be certified, you need to use all the products as well of the company. Well, that's driving sales as well at the same time, which is good. And if I fast forward in Industrial, a major new program is really the so-called Net Zero water program where customers are looking to deliver on their commitments of getting zero water or net zero water usage over time, whatever the commitment is. And we're uniquely positioned with our Net Zero program to help them deliver that. So you won't see that at the NRA. But that's going to be an interesting one. And at the NRA, you're going to as well more in Purolite, which is ahead of an innovation as well, and we will cover that more when we get together.
Mike Harrison:
All right. And then my other question is on the Specialty business. That has historically been a very consistent high single-digit grower. In 2021, it declined. Can you help us frame up the dynamics that you're seeing there? And maybe give us a sense of where you see volume and pricing growth in Specialty in 2022?
Christophe Beck:
Yes. The Specialty growth in '21 was mostly impacted by very high comparisons in 2020 because during COVID, well, since restaurants and hotels were closed, people were going to retailers and to a certain extent for the takeout or drive-through from QSR. So that's driven high growth during COVID and when COVID evolved, I'm not saying going away, unfortunately, was suddenly when you compare to a very high comparison. But generally, underlying, those are 2 very strong businesses that are going to keep doing well going forward as well. And QSR has been growing 8% in the fourth quarter, just to name one.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Kevin McVeigh with Crédit Suisse.
Kevin McVeigh:
Christophe, I wonder, could you give some thoughts on the Downstream business? It seems like it recovered a little bit in the quarter. But based on the recent pricing actions in oil, any thoughts as to say, that business as we move our way through 2022?
Christophe Beck:
It's a very interesting business, Downstream, because things are evolving. We're doing today and even more tomorrow, some very different things than what we did in the past. In the past, Downstream was all about maximizing capacity utilization, improving the efficiency, the productivity of the assets. That was the #1 focus. It hasn't gone away today, but the focus has shifted dramatically towards sustainable operations, and it's turning refineries into operations that are using much less water. When you think about the refinery, so beyond crude oil, obviously, that go through the second other element, its water. And we're working with the super majors to help them to get to their net zero ambitions as well. And that's totally new. That had no acceptance in the past for most customers. And today, this is the #1 to pick and that's where we're best at as well. We can differentiate ourselves. And the good news is really that our new business is going really well in that business. So a very different one going forward than what we've seen in the past, which matches much more who we are as a company and who we want to become as well in the future.
Kevin McVeigh:
Very helpful. And then just real quick on what type of full service in unit traffic could we assume in the 2022 guide? I know it was about 70% of 2019 levels in Q4. How are you thinking about that over the course of 2022?
Christophe Beck:
Well, it's a good and difficult question. So the industry is expecting to be back towards the end of the year in restaurants and in hotels, probably more the year after. We are ahead of that curve as you mentioned, as we mentioned as well early on. So I think that during the second half of this year, we should be ahead/quite a bit.
Operator:
Mr. Monahan, there are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the floor back over to you for closing comments.
Mike Monahan:
Thanks, Rob. That wraps up our fourth quarter conference call. This conference call and the associated discussion and slides will be available for replay on our website. Thank you for your time and participation today, and best wishes for the rest of the day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.
Operator:
Greetings and welcome to the Ecolab Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Release Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions]. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mike Monahan, Senior VP, External Relations for Ecolab. Thank you, Mr. Monahan, you may begin.
Michael Monahan:
Thank you. Hello everyone, and welcome to Ecolab's Third Quarter conference call with me today are Christophe Beck, Ecolab's CEO, and Dan Schmechel, our CFO. A discussion of our results along with our earnings release, and the slides referencing the quarter's results are available on Ecolab's website at ecolab.com/investor. Please take a moment to read the cautionary statements in these materials which state that this teleconference and the associated supplemental materials include estimates of future performance. These are forward-looking statements, and actual results could differ materially from those projected. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are described under the Risk Factors section in our most recent Form 10-K and in our posted materials. We also refer you to the supplemental diluted earnings per share information in the release. Starting with a brief overview, strong third quarter results were driven by a robust new business wins and accelerating pricing. Which along with the continued recovery in the U.S. and improving European markets, more than offset significantly increased delivered product and other costs. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, we expect both accelerating sales volume and pricing momentum to leverage an expected continuing, though uneven global recovery. We expect these drivers to result in the fourth quarter showing better year-on-year sales growth than the third quarter. We have also experienced continued substantial delivered product and other cost inflation that we believe will increase fourth quarter costs by nearly $0.20 per share. As a result, we expect fourth quarter earnings to grow double-digits, though not as strong as the third quarter. We expect to once again to successfully managed the current inflation challenges in uneven global economic recovery to deliver very strong sales and earnings growth in 2021. As a strong volume and pricing gains along with productivity and cost reduction actions, enabled us to offset the higher costs and yield double-digit earnings growth. Recent programs, including Ecolab science certified a net 0 are further differentiated Ecolab's value proposition and enabled us to help create better customer outcomes and reduced environmental impact while simultaneously reducing their costs. Our new business wins and innovative pipelines are at record levels. New market focused areas are positioned well to drive growth. And our leading digital capabilities continued to add competitive advantage. Our strong business momentum, along with enhanced value proposition and favorable macro trends, positioned us well to leverage the post-COVID environment and deliver further superior shareholder returns next year and for the future. And now, here's Christophe Beck with his comments.
Christophe Beck :
Thank you, Mike. And good afternoon, everyone. Great to be together with you today. So Q3 has been another very good quarter for Ecolab. Demonstrating once again, that Ecolab is in a great shape, with strong top-line momentum and a proven ability to effectively mitigate the adverse effects of inflation and the so-called supply shortages. And aligning sales trends were strong across the board, in a complex environment we delivered 10% reported and 8% fixed currency organic sales growth, driven first and foremost by continued strong momentum in institutional and specialty that delivered 17% sales growth in the quarter and 24% from the institutional division. We also saw accelerated momentum in industrial sales with 7% growth and 13% in other segments driven by sustained, high-performance in pest elimination. Ecolab scientist posted negative sales growth year-on-year as they compare to exceptional growth during the pandemic as we know. However, their respective underlying sales growth stayed on a healthy mid-single and double-digit trajectory. There's still planning momentum combined with accelerating pricing and structure productivity that's benefiting from our state-of-the-art digital automation drove the strong adjusted EPS delivery. More than offsetting short-term impact from Hurricane Ida and the rapid acceleration of global cost inflation. The team did an exceptional job minimizing the impact of Hurricane Ida, which we were able to successfully manage to be a much lower impact than initially expected at only $0.03 in the quarter. Most importantly, the team mitigated the impact of additional significant supply shortages to ensure exceptional service to customers while driving continued new business wins and strong price increases, contributing to 31% increase in free cash flow. Current sales momentum is strong and we expect it to accelerate. Strong new business and breakthrough innovation are expected to continue to drive top-line growth. Also pricing, we keep accelerating towards 4% The strong volume and price momentum is expected to result in Q4 showing better year-over-year sales growth than what we've seen in Q3. At the same time, delivered product costs will keep increasing rapidly, which we'll continue to mitigate with great pricing. However, as we know with our model this takes time to do well in a way that's sustainable long term, and aligned with the incremental value we create for customers. We therefore estimate that the timeline between pricing and cost inflation will impact the Fourth Quarter EPS by approximately $0.20 versus what we expected just a few months ago, but that to, we'll address over the next few quarters. Next week we expect Q4 EPS to continue to grow double-digit, though not as strong as in Q3, which will help us exceed the year with great momentum. With strong volume growth, continued pricing, and delivered product cost hopefully nearing its peak we'll then enter 2022 in great position to deliver another great year for Ecolab. The strong fundamental business momentum combined with continued market recovery, provides us with great confidence in the future and especially for '22. In a world full of uncertainties, we keep driving strong business wins on a competitive differentiation. In a world where customers struggle to fund reliable partners for innovation, especially product supply and expertise to have them run the operations efficiently and serve their customers safely. We have substantially strengthened our position as their clear, innovative, and reliable global partner. In a world where our institutional specialty customers and consumers, especially are concerned about increased risks of infection, Ecolab Science Certified has become the referenced that provides guests with the assurance they're looking for. And in a world where environmental impact has become front and center, our net 0 offering is providing industrial segment customers, especially leading in innovative ways to deliver on the commitments while improving their own financial returns. All these provides us with confidence that '22 It will be another strong year for Ecolab with sales and earnings growth above our long-term trends. So with that, I look forward to your questions.
Michael Monahan:
Operator, please begin the question-and-answer period.
Operator:
Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. We ask that you please limit yourself to 1 question and 1 brief follow-up question per caller so that others will have the chance to participate. [Operator instructions] A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. [Operator instructions]. One moment please, while we poll for questions. Thank you. Our first question is from Tim Mulrooney, from William Blair. Please proceed with your question.
Tim Mulrooney :
Christophe, good morning.
Christophe Beck :
Hi. Good morning, Tim.
Tim Mulrooney :
Thanks for taking my question. So my first one is on the guide. It sounds like you expect organic revenue growth to accelerate in the fourth quarter off an already strong result here in the third quarter. I know that some of that should come from better pricing, but are there other areas of the business that you expect to accelerate in the fourth quarter as well and could you talk about what some of those might be.
Christophe Beck :
Yeah, thanks for the question, Tim. You mentioned the pricing, we'll keep accelerating in Q4, we have to, and we can as well with the value that we're creating for our customers, that will help drive organic growth obviously. Volume growth will keep accelerating as well in most businesses, industrial being one good example, and institutionally is going to keep doing really well as it recovers. And you will have as well to healthcare and life science that are going to compare so to easier comps last year than we had in Q3 and all that brought together so will bring us to a better place for Q4. Probably nearing to the double-digit level.
Tim Mulrooney :
Okay. That's even more than I was thinking. Thank you and quickly on margins, I saw industrial margins took another step back this quarter, but I know you guys have talked about maintaining these margins and building upon the gains you've made in 2020. So my question is the step-back primarily related to the raw material cost pressure. In other words, would you still be on track to hold the margin gains you achieved last year, if not for those raw material cost pressures? I'm just trying to understand what a normalized operating margin should look like for that business.
Christophe Beck :
Yeah, that's a good way to look at it. Normal wise the margin so would keep improving actually. So if we think mid to long-term, the margin trajectory for industrial are will become even healthier going forward. Because when we talk about, give back, we're not giving back anything. Pricing is going up quarter-over-quarter in industrial like in other businesses by-the-way as well. Volume is going up as well. So it's kind of this short-term inflationary pressure, which is quite strong. Which is growing so quicker than the way we price for all good reasons since we want to make sure that we keep old customers while we do that and that we dropped it. So by the value we create as well, ultimately, when delivered product cost curve is going to ease margin, it's going to improve again, as you've seen last year, by the way, which was the end of another cycle as well in industrial.
Tim Mulrooney :
Very clear. Thank you.
Christophe Beck :
Thank you, Tim.
Operator:
Our next question is from Manav Patnaik from Barclays. Please proceed with your question.
Manav Patnaik :
Yeah. Thank you. I was just hoping you can give us an update competitively in terms of John, I'm guessing everyone is raising prices and so customers are aware of that. But has the share gains moved one way or the other? Just curious if there's any updated there to provide.
Christophe Beck :
Yeah. Hi, Manav. I wish that most competitors would be driving as much pricing as we do. If -- unfortunately, not exactly the case, which thank God. We drive pricing based on the value we create. So we have a good discussion so is our customers. We have opportunities to add value in your own productivity, and we will get part of that as well, so going forward, if I look at most of the competitors in most of the businesses, they all behind us in terms of price evolution. So we see ourselves as being the leader in most of those industries as well. So we need to show the way as well. So part of the reason, but ultimately, I wish that there would be a bit stronger as well in terms of price evolution..
Manav Patnaik :
Got it. And then just regionally in Europe with a greater competitor there, or any update to how your recovery in Europe is progressing.
Christophe Beck :
It's generally quite good. The recovery was a little bit steeper in Europe than in the U.S. because, as you know, they went from totally locked down to almost wholly opening up, which was different in the U.S. and then you have a bit of the bumps in the UK or in Germany because cases -- numbers are going up. Generally, the trends are quite positive and our international business, Manav, is growing positively as well, and keep in mind that last year we were flat as well. We were not declining in international so having a positive growth this year is a good indication that things are recovering quite nicely.
Manav Patnaik :
Thank you.
Christophe Beck :
Thank you, Manav.
Operator:
Our next question is from David Begleiter from Deutsche Bank. Please, proceed with your question.
David Begleiter:
Thank you. Good afternoon. Chris, Josh, just on price versus raws, when do you expect a fully catch up to these higher raw material costs?
Christophe Beck :
So David, if you just take the dollar value year-to-date, we are ahead already, which is really in the Ecolab model, so it's not within the quarter. But if I take the year-to-date, pricing is ahead of the delivered product cost, dollar pressure. And for the most part, we will remain ahead. It's not a perfect science, but it comes in lockstep. To me, the main objective is making sure that we can drive margin in percent and that takes more time to get there because they inflationary pressures grows faster than our pricing capability.
David Begleiter :
Very good. I know it's early for next year, but as we approach November, do you have early thoughts on how to think about the earnings progression for next year?
Christophe Beck :
Yeah, it's very early as you say, David. I think so first on the inflation side, I believe it's going to be very similar to the pressure that we have or that we are experiencing in '21 and that's why the pricing evolution that we have this year, roughly 2%. We're expecting to get towards 4% next year. We'll be -- a good equation at least though over time, and generally so for the trends for '22, when I just step back a bit, I think it's going to be fairly consistent with what we've seen in the second half of the year. So overall, it's going to be probably better than what we've seen pre -COVID, if I may say. Good top-line momentum with good leverage with it.
David Begleiter :
Very good. Thank you very much.
Christophe Beck :
Thank you, David.
Operator:
Our next question is from John McNulty from BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
John P. Mc Nulty :
Thanks for taking my question. Just on the topic of the institutional business, can you speak to where you are from a volume perspective relative to 2019, for your third quarter?
Christophe Beck :
It's a good question, I'll need some help for that. We're all recovering very nicely in institutional. In general, maybe just to give you an idea of the trajectory, we expect to be ahead of 2019 and early '22. I don't know which months that's exactly going to be, that's depending on a bunch of things. But generally we see that in the next 3 to 6 months, it's going to happen, so for sure. So right now we are -- roughly in Q3. So 11% down in volume. And we will be expecting to be close to 19 [Indiscernible] early 22.
John P. Mc Nulty :
Got it. You've come back a good bit of the way, I guess as a follow-up, you mentioned a bunch of labor issues for a handful of your general customer basis. Can you speak to how much of an issue that is for them? How does it impact the overall growth for that business to recover? And then also maybe some of the solutions that you can provide, some of these customers that help them with their labor issues.
Christophe Beck :
It's a great question because it's a real challenge for the industry, not just for our end customers in -- and really specific to institutional here. So the whole distribution channel is also struggling with that. So getting trucks unloaded from our plans to the distribution center and then afterwards getting the picking right as well. So for our customers, it's an interesting world out there. But I'd like to say as well, what's really important is that most, if not all of our customers, including the distributors, are now clearly of underlining our service quality. We've done huge efforts to make sure that we can deliver to our distributors and to our customers. Which is first and foremost what needs to happen, especially with Hurricane Ida that didn't help but I think that we've ended up in a very good place in terms of service level. Now to your question on the staffing. If you just look at the numbers. Institutional business up 24%, very good progression. We are almost at same level as 2019 in terms of customers that we're serving. As well we have our restaurant sales that are not even 10% down versus last year when the dining food traffic is down over 20%. Generally, we're doing very well versus the market. But at the same time, when you go to restaurants, you see that they can't serve all the tables, so they can't be open every single day of the week as well. So it's basically showing an indication that we could be even better or will be better the moment that they get the staffing right and last but not least, your point on how we help them get there. Obviously, the service that we provide on a regular basis going there, well, is very helpful for them. Because if the kitchen -- if the housekeeping, if the warewashing is not done appropriately. Well, it's even worse because they usually don't have people who can truly do the work, since they're all new, changing so often as well. That's problematic and we provide a lot of products, as well that need much less labor, as well the same time, you think about the disinfectants, we talked about against COVID, while you don't need to rents for instance, as well. You save a lot of time doing the same work that other companies offer. That's helping as well with the labor shortage.
John P. Mc Nulty :
Thanks very much for the color.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from Chris Parkinson with Mizuho, please proceed with your question.
Christopher Parkinson:
Great. Thank you very much. You're clearly not only enthusiastic on, but you are executing on the share gain fronts, which seems to be across the portfolio. But what's the primary driver here, is it enterprise selling as you've spoken in the past, new platforms like science certified, digitization, new customers desire to go to brand name. If you could just briefly dissect the recent success, what underscores your multiyear confidence, it would be greatly appreciated. Thank you very much.
Christophe Beck :
You are welcome Chris. So, there are a few drivers, the main 1 we have is really so the new business generation, it's not new, you're familiar with that. We have close 2,000 people managing, so corporate accounts, as we call them, and we're very proud of that team and net new business generation is at an all-time high, which is good because it's the pipeline of new business as well for the future. And it's driven by 2 main drivers. If I may say, the one you mentioned, it's the Ecolab Science Certified, especially on the institutional side. Customers are looking for ways to provide the right confidence for their own customers, their guests, as they call them, and Science Certified requires the full Ecolab program to be certified, while that means higher penetration of most of the solutions assets. We get more units and more solutions that within the existing units in order for those customers to the certification. One of the latest, as I mentioned on Investors day so as McDonald's, which has been a great story with them endorsing Science Certified. And on the industrial side is that we're net 0 program is getting some very interesting traction because many of our customers, if not most, have made a lot of sustainability commitments out there, that some of them have a hard time to reach or get closer to stay on track for that. So they need our help even more in order to get to their own commitment. That's helping generating as well new business and last, but not least, new engines, like a data centers and high-tech are extraordinary growth drivers. Really addressing your needs that existed pre -pandemic. But the pandemic has given a huge boost to cloud computing as we all know, since we all using this virtual technologies, while that's driving our own business as well at the same time.
Christopher Parkinson:
That's very helpful. And just as a very quick corollary of that, just turning to European Institutional, recently, there was a little bit sluggish versus its regional peers, but it seems to be edging in the right direction. Could you just briefly comment on what trends you're seeing there across the region, share gain opportunity, and just your ability just to further drive margins higher across the region. Thank you very much.
Christophe Beck :
Yeah. Good question, Chris. We've done the last 10 years and you've been following us for a long time. A lot of fundamental work in Europe for all our businesses. When you think about it, 10 years ago, we were making no money as a Company in Europe. Now, we are in the low teens, 13%, 14% in that region. That's been a remarkable of profitability improvement. Interestingly enough, Institutional has not made as much progress as all the other businesses in Europe because there was so much fundamental work that had to be done in terms of organization, in terms of systems, in terms of leadership, in terms of innovation. While it's taken us more time. But I would say the pandemic has helped us in a way. It's hurt us short term, obviously, whenever things that were shut down. But ultimately, our customers have seen that they needed a partner that could help them to provide the assurance that they get. Which was new, that was not exactly the focus there were having pre -pandemic. And now so we getting the fruits of all the work we've done over the past few years, where customers are recognizing that well, we're adding value that other suppliers can't provide.
Christopher Parkinson:
Great. Thank you.
Christophe Beck :
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from John Roberts with UBS. Please proceed with your question.
John Roberts :
Thank you. Just a little clarification on the labor comments -- customer labor comments that you made earlier. Are you -- do you have any lost revenues? Because the customers just don't have enough staff to do all the cleaning that they would prefer to do?
Christophe Beck :
Absolutely, when restaurants are open, John, 3 days a week instead of 7 or whatever the schedule is. Well, this is lost revenue for them and this is lost revenue for us. But the good news is that well, they going to open up at some point as they did pre -pandemic as well. That's going to help us as well.
John Roberts :
No, I meant just the -- they were open but they have short-staffed while they were opening and so cleaning is getting deprioritized.
Christophe Beck :
This was the case, John, early on, it's evolving quite nicely because you and I being guests in hotels and restaurants. Well, we had some understanding for the lower cleaning standards during the pandemic. We paying the same price at the end for a room or for a meal. We expect as well a similar quality of service and of cleanliness as well. So this is something that's coming back progressively, but the labor shortage is hurting that. So the trends are good. It just takes time to get back to the right place.
John Roberts :
And then I don't think healthcare and life science is very seasonal. So could you talk a little bit about the sequential change on a sequential basis. I assume hand sanitizer were still down sequentially. I don't know when that bottoms and you get up comps. And what was up offsetting that?
Christophe Beck :
A few things here. You're right, it's not really a seasonal business. That's not the way we look at it, for sure not. But last year was an exceptional year because of demand and because of a lot of government driven demand healthcare sanitizers and all those products. Estimates are exceptionally high back then. back then. If you just look at the Q3, say it's a 17% down versus last year, but they were up 8% versus '19, if you just do the math. And in terms of mix and not so much seasonality, what's driving profitability in healthcare, is mostly the surgical part and COVID, as you know, so has shifted away the elective surgeries, which has shifted our business as well towards a lower profitability type of business. But this is short-term. It's driven by COVID, the moment that surgeries are coming back ultimately, we'll have the double combination, first on seeing growth because we will be comparing against the more normal period, and second, profitability is going to come very naturally back because surgical is going to come back as well.
John Roberts:
Thank you.
Christophe Beck :
You're welcome, John.
Operator:
Our next question is from Gary Bisbee with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.
Gary Bisbee :
Hey guys, good afternoon. So I want to go back institutional for a minute. I think versus 2019 pre -pandemic, if you adjust for currencies in the last two years, the business institutional segment remains 8% below pre -pandemic revenue levels in the quarter. You commented you thought volumes in the next three to six months would get back to pre -pandemic levels. Does that equate to that revenue gap getting back to pre -pandemic levels or are there other puts intakes that could lead revenue to take longer? And as part of that, I guess I also wondered, what unit level -- customer level do you think you'll be at when revenue gets to pre -pandemic levels? So that in -- I asked that from the perspective that you've talked about more products per unit, particularly for those clients that are using Ecolab Science Certified. Thank you.
Christophe Beck :
Yes, so, Gary, big picture as mentioned earlier, institutionally expected so early '22, so to get back to 2019 levels, at the top-line level, I don't know exactly which months that's going to be. But within the next 6 months, it's going to be the case, which is very steady and healthy recovery. With that, the fact that we had very good new business while that's going to be installed as well in the months to come. So if today we have almost the same number of units and the same number of solutions within units out there, well it is going to compound. Then afterwards, once we get more units, more days that are going to be open, more staffing in the restaurants as mentioned, as well before. So all those elements, ultimately, are going to help institutional accelerate versus what we saw in '19 pre -pandemic as well. On top of it, you have pricing that's also evolving in the right direction as in every business that we have in the Company that's going to add to it as well and last, but not least, from an earnings perspective as well, Institutional has done remarkable work in terms of field organization, system implementation, that really help as well drive an even better leverage in that business. So overall trending in the right direction, it's going to take a few quarters in order get there, but I feel confident that we [Indiscernible] on a good path.
Gary Bisbee :
Okay, great. And then you've talked a lot about your own pricing and how you're handling the raw material pressures, if we just think supply chain in general, not so much the cost and pricing angle, but are you seeing any volume issues of your own or do you feel like any of your customers in any of the segments are really being impacted in the volumes they're using based on the widespread supply chain challenges that are going on globally? Thank you.
Christophe Beck :
To assert an extent, yes. So there's a labor shortage, as we mentioned before, but that's the one that you're talking about, obviously here. But take the example of the car industry, I saw outdoors. The chip shortage that's happening out there. Well, has nothing to do with our own operation, but it's reducing the demand just because they're less costs being produced, because they can't produce them because of the chips ultimately out there. So that's one, so that's something we can't control obviously. What we can control is always making sure that we can supply our customers in a way that doesn't stop or impact their own operations. And in this crazy world of shortages, and hurricane, and Texas freeze, and you name it ultimately, not one customers had to stop ultimately because of what we were not able to supply. I've met a bunch of CEOs over the past few months as well, and all have been very complementary as well in our ability to serve them in a difficult environment. [Indiscernible], yes, it's not helping. Growth, if there were no shortage, we would be probably growing faster, but I don't think that it's a major impact on us.
Gary Bisbee :
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.
Vincent Andrews:
Thank you. And good afternoon, everyone. A bit of a follow-up on the supply dynamics. When you speak to your suppliers these days, how much of the issue at this point and as we look into 2022 is still that they're struggling to get their plans back up and running at a full run rate versus just that the broader customer base, very much wants to rebuild inventory and is also probably seeing very good demand and so is it -- how much of a risk do you see that either
Christophe Beck :
Well, the short answer is that I think it's going to last 12-plus months, what we're experiencing now. And that's the way we're organized, that's the way we're addressing it. That's the way we planning for it as well. Supply shortages are going to be here. So for a while, you are familiar with the China, U.S. transport issues that are existing as well. There are many suppliers as well in the U.S. who have gone through force measures as well over the past few months. Sometimes for great reasons and sometimes not so much. Just to get some more margins as well with costs going up as well. The way we're thinking through that is that as mentioned, earlier I expect the inflationary pressure in dollars in '22 to be very similar to the one in '21 with easing plateauing during the second half of next year. Which is why on one hand [Indiscernible], thank God, we've gotten very well organized in order to become more resilient in order to make sure we can supply our customers. And second, that we doubling our pricing from 2% to 4%, '21 versus '22 in order to address that. And if the world gets better earlier, well, we're all going to be happier.
Gary Bisbee :
Okay, thank you very much.
Christophe Beck :
You're welcome, [Indiscernible]
Operator:
Our next question is from Laurence Alexander with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.
Daniel Rizzo:
Good morning -- good afternoon, guys. Dan Rizzo on for Laurence. Just in terms of pricing that we've talked about a lot, is there situations where there's pricing rebates or pricing givebacks if things were to ease dramatically? Obviously that's not expected if the world changes in 6 months, 9 months. Would you get pricing concessions?
Christophe Beck :
Overall we don't, Dan, we serving 3 million customers in the world, I won't say that it's the case for a 100% of all those locations that we're serving, but generally, if you look at just the last 10 years, Ecolab never went backwards in pricing. You have years with higher pricing and some with lower pricing and in average you get to 1% plus something like that, which is a good indication of the fact that pricing is something that we hold going forward. And why that is, because we always link the pricing that we asking with the value that we're creating so far with customers. How much dollar value we've had them create by reducing the usage of natural resources, their improved productivity, reduced waste, and so on. Ultimately, that doesn't go away when the raw materials will go down, ultimately, which is on one hand, the reason why pricing is always going to go up, and second, that the margins ultimately for the Company gets better because you get lower input costs for a price that keeps going up as well. And last point is innovation as well, which is always brought in the market with higher margin. That helps as well improving the leverage in a much more natural way.
Daniel Rizzo:
That's really helpful. And then just one clarification on something you said before. Did you say that you expect the raw material or the inflation environment to last for all of 2022 or most of 2022? Did I catch that right?
Christophe Beck:
Yeah. I wish I could know exactly, but I am saying the next 12 months, it's going to be the case and that's the way we're planning. That's the way we're getting organized though. I think it's going to ease the second half of next year. When is it going to start? How much is it going to be? I don't know, we're planning with the fact that it's going to be a tough year next year in terms of inflation, and if it gets better, then okay, it's going to make everything easier.
Daniel Rizzo:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Christophe Beck :
You're welcome.
Operator:
Our next question is from Eric Petrie with Citigroup. Please proceed with your question.
Eric Petrie :
Hi. Thank you and good afternoon, Christophe.
Christophe Beck :
Good afternoon, Eric.
Eric Petrie :
Which segments of industrial have you seen the greatest initial interest in your net 0 program?
Christophe Beck :
That's a great question. It depends when, Eric. The ones over the last few years has been the food and beverage customers. Those are the Consumer Goods brands that are the most on the leading edge because their own consumers are asking them to behave the right way in terms of environmental protection and natural resources usage. But then, the ones that are the most forward-looking, interestingly enough, or the high-tech companies like Microsoft who have put the most ambitious commitments by 2030, you've read that, so they want to be so carbon positive and water positive as well, which means giving back all the views since the beginning being in operations whenever that was, our early 90's as Microsoft. So there we use a lot of new technology for that. And the last one I'll just mentioned, Eric, which is becoming very interested. That was not interested 6 months ago. Interestingly enough, is downstream in oil and gas because while investors and consumers are truly asking them so to shift and those ones are coming to us, and they did not 12 months ago. So very different types of industries, but the trends, it's clearly going all in the same direction.
Eric Petrie :
Thank you, and then a question on Ecolab Science Certified, I think that program was launched sometime in third quarter of '20. When do you think you'll reach a point of market saturation or where the program doesn't add to top line?
Christophe Beck :
That's a great question. I hope never. But, well, these are a 100% somewhere, obviously. But, interestingly enough, we have today 33 thousand locations that are Ecolab Science Certified in the U.S. and we serving close to 200 thousand locations. So there is a lot of runway and that's just in the U.S. We expanding in Canada, in the U.K. Right now, it's easier because the same language for the most part as well, and then we have the rest of the world, but we're careful in expanding internationally because since it's a new program, as you mentioned [Indiscernible] last year really want to understand how it works, how it's perceived, what's right, what's not right as well. I think that the runway is quite long and it's been much more successful than I thought it would be. Initially, I thought it would be just COVID related while this is not the case. Interestingly enough, lodging customers or hotel are becoming increasingly interested in that program because guests want to have that feeling of well-being when they go to a hotel. The same for offices as well. So those are new opportunities that we didn't think about earlier on. That adds ultimately to the accessible market that we have in front of us.
Eric Petrie :
Thank you, Christophe.
Christophe Beck :
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners. Please proceed with your question.
Kevin Mc Carthy :
Yes. Good afternoon. Christophe, I was wondering if you could talk through the hurricane impacts. It looks as though the impact is expected to be half of what you thought it might have been on September 13th and your prepared remarks suggest you attack that through pricing and productivity, so I was wondering if you could address each of those things and provide some more color as to how you went about mitigating that.
Christophe Beck :
Good question, Kevin. Well it's a -- our practice is when we see something happening that was not planned, we always get to you as quickly as we can to be transparent what we see at that moment. So the downside of that practice is obviously, a week or 2 later, if things have changed for the better, in that case. Well, the forecast is a bit different as such. To give you some color on the Hurricane Ida, we have systems are showing where the hurricanes are going to go or what's the path of the hurricane. And we initially thought that it would really so -- avoid one of the large plants that we have in Louisiana, in the Garyville. Well, unfortunately, a few hours before a change [Indiscernible] exactly one of our main plants in the U.S. And with the damage we had there we thought the plant would be closed for 3 months. And our supply chain team that fortunately or unfortunately, depending on how you want to look at it, has a lot of practice this year with natural catastrophes as such. Well, has brought all the teams we had from other plants as well in order to help them rebuild part of the production lines that had been damaged because you couldn't find contractors in the area either for all the reasons we know. [Indiscernible] reduced the 3 months stop to 3 weeks ultimately. That has been great to our customers, first and foremost, in second, it's allowed us to reduce the impact quite dramatically. So that's an additional point to the ones you mentioned.
Kevin Mc Carthy :
I see. Then as a brief follow-up, have you implemented incremental price increases over the last few months? And I guess regardless of the answer, how would you expect price contributions to trend in 4Q versus 3Q?
Christophe Beck :
So the short answers that we've gone to many customers 3 times this year. Usually in normal times, whatever that truly means, we do that once a year or -- it's a very natural practice that the Company has, where we discussed the plan for next year, how much value we're creating for the customer, what's going to be the -- our share of that in other words, the price that we're going to get for it as well and making sure that the returns for customers so improve, that's normal practice once a year. We did 3 times in average this year so very unusual. I assume it's going to be similar, next year or so between 1 and 3 times, it's going to be more than 1, that I'm sure. We go for a bunch of pricing rounds. Now, to your question Q4 versus Q3, we heading to what's 4% to enter 2022. Is it going to be the full quarter in Q4? I'm not totally sure yet. It's going to happen some time doing the fourth quarter, depending on when we get it done. It will be for the full quarter or it's going to be as we enter '22, but I have a high confidence level that we're going to get the pricing that we're looking for.
Kevin Mc Carthy :
Very helpful. Thanks so much.
Christophe Beck :
You're welcome.
Operator:
Our next question is from Rosemarie Morbelli with Gabelli and Company. Please proceed with your question.
Rosemarie Morbelli :
Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone.
Christophe Beck :
Bonjour, Marie.
Rosemarie Morbelli :
Christophe, looking at the price of oil having reached to $80 a barrel or there about, is that -- do you see that already beginning to help your downstream business? And still on the downstream side, how is your net zero category going to help them? Which areas are you focusing on?
Christophe Beck :
Great question. The high price of oils make some people happy in our organization, that's the downstream team. And most of the rest of Company in a bit less happy because that's an input costs that's going up, but net it's okay. We know how to manage that, generally. So you've seen down stream though went up, so in Q3 so 2%, so we crossed the board of the 0, which is good. We see so really good evolution in downstream. Yes, there's the price of oil is helping on the demand. They've done some very good work as well in our downstream [Indiscernible] in terms of new business. This is helping and not directly related to the price of oil for sure. And when you talk about the net zero, it's very interesting early discussions as such, but to take one example of one European Company, actually with whom we are working on that net zero program. They basically saying you need to help us improve the environmental footprint of our old energy, which is the refining part, before we can focus on the new energy the renewables as such. So we've really help them understand that by reducing the water consumption in a refinery. Which by the way, is the number 1 natural resource that's being used in a refinery while you reduced the energy usage as well for electricity. So for the most part as well, so they reduce the water consumption, they reduce the carbon footprint by doing it, and they reduce the cost, I mean help inflation. Now, interestingly enough, it's an industry that was not so much interested in even having that discussion that has changed dramatically, and that's helping create a new demand for us.
Rosemarie Morbelli :
Okay. And then -- thanks that is helpful. And then looking at Europe, which you know very well since you run it for a while, if my memory serves me right.
Christophe Beck :
That's right.
Manav Patnaik :
What is -- I understand that you will never get the institutional business to reach the level of the institutional high-end and normal circumstances in North America. So what is the difference, other than the fact that you have multitude of countries and different advertisements and so on. Is the competitive arena also very different? What is your new management there doing to accept some of them?
Christophe Beck :
You said it the right way, so we will not reach the profitability level of the U.S. because it's not 1 country and the complexities is bigger. As you mentioned, the language is logistics, regulatory, and so on. That's a cost of doing business that's higher than in the U.S. That's true for most companies, obviously. But that's not the reason why we shouldn't get close to it. But we had to really do some fundamental work over there in getting our structure right, getting our talent right, getting our logistics right, and most importantly, we can't forget that 10 plus years ago, Institutional in Europe was a product business. We were selling products versus programs and outcomes in the U.S., because it was a joint venture with a consumer goods Company, 10 plus years ago, that we had over there. Well, that's a major cultural shift as well for our team that needed to happen. So we are a patient Company, you know that we've been working on business for years, take Pest Elimination, took us 10 years to bring it profitable and now it's one of our most profitable businesses globally that we have. I feel confident that in Europe we will get to a very healthy place even if it's not at the level of the U.S., it's going to be a very solid business down the road, but it's still going to take some time.
Rosemarie Morbelli :
Okay. [Indiscernible]
Christophe Beck:
[Indiscernible]
Operator:
Our next question is from Scott Schneeberger with Oppenheimer, please proceed with your question.
Scott Schneeberger:
Thanks very much. Good afternoon, Chris, I've just kind of taken a question off something you just mentioned. The other segment, the margin really rebounding strongly and it's now above the 2019 level despite commentary end markets that have not fully recovered, I'm just curious if you could delve in a little bit to what is driving the margin in other end? Where that possibly could go, since we're now above '19. Thanks.
Christophe Beck :
So you know that we have in our segments or you have a combination of different businesses, obviously, pest elimination being the bigger and best one. You have textile care, that's in there and CTG or our Colloidal Technology Group. Very different businesses, obviously. So it's hard to talk about an average as such. The main driver is pest elimination that has done a remarkable work during the pandemic. They've recovered very quickly during 2020 and kept growing as well in '21. And at the same time have managed as well to improve their profitability versus '19, 3.5 percentage points as such. So large business growing very nicely, profitable and getting more profitability. Obviously, you get a lot of leverage and Scott, that drives the good results that you've seen in our so-called other segments.
Scott Schneeberger:
Excellent, thanks, I appreciate that, and then in my follow-up on that kind of delve into in the supplemental discussed in the summary section, there is commentary expecting to enter 2022, solid momentum driving strong top, bottom line through product and service innovation, digital solution, new markets and inappropriate pricing. Just curious, Chris tophe, at this point, can you elaborate on new markets in that sentence? Specifically what you had in mind, if not a follow-up, but I just want to delve on that. Thanks.
Christophe Beck :
Yes. So it's kind of all of the above starting first with new business. It always feels a bit mundane. But we have these [Indiscernible] in the Company that in doubt, go and sell something. And it's really having everyone trying to sell new customers -- new solutions to existing customer. This is job one and we want to make sure that we don't lose, obvioulsy. So that's [Indiscernible] interestingly enough, when you do more pricing, that has an impact as well on how much new business. So it's not a perfect science, but we manage that reasonably well, or very well, if I may say. In terms of new markets, I'll mention a few. So the one I express before our data center business, which is driven by the whole boom of a cloud computing. We've created that high-tech division, which is really dedicated to those companies with their own needs, up time quality, cyber security, and all that, which is growing extremely fast. That's one of the new markets. Animal Health is another one, which has been this year a bit by the pandemic and some difficulties in some countries. But ultimately, that's also one that's going to grow very fast in the years to come. And most importantly, you had life science, which is a business that we created 5 years ago. It's a 300 million business growing double-digit with extremely high profitability as well. This one it's just at the beginning of its growth story, and as you know, life science is serving mostly the farmer industry. Which is the trillion dollar industry, growing double-digit. And for me we have so much to offer to that industry. I think that's going to be the number 1 new market to use your term. That's going to help us grow as well next year and the years to come.
Scott Schneeberger:
Excellent. It sounds good. And that's what I expected to hear. It's just we want to make sure there wasn't anything geographical, perhaps expanding, but I will turn it over. Thanks so much, Christophe.
Christophe Beck :
You're welcome.
Operator:
Our next question is from Shlomo Rosenbaum from Stifel. Please proceed with your question.
Shlomo Rosenbaum:
Hey, Christophe, a couple of quick questions. Just -- maybe some of the growth in water and paper particularly strong, can you dissect how much is it would you say is coming from easier comps and how much is really an accelerated cans of those businesses that we should be thinking about just done in a more regular basis?
Christophe Beck :
Yes, so first on water. It's been a steady business for many, many years because of all the right reasons is that water scarcity has become a bigger issue and by reducing the water usage, you reduce energy usage, you reduce your carbon footprint. So it fits really well, with the net 0 idea. So the water business, which is a very large business while the Company has been successful for years. And we'll keep going well because customers needed even more because of this net 0 approaches that step. Now on paper, it's been an unbelievable year in Q3, growing so 19%, you have gone up a 1/3 of it is pricing, 2/3 is volume, some is comp, but a lot of new business as well has been generated in our paper division. So it's not going to stay at that high level just because the comp are going to normalize going forward, but it's going to remain a healthy business going forward with a very nice profitable margin as well.
Shlomo Rosenbaum:
Okay, great. And what's the interest internally at Ecolab to pursue M&A within their pest business. And there's been more consolidation outside with other players [Indiscernible] bought a lot of small businesses. Is that something that you guys would be interested in going and doing more activity over there or alternatively, if someone approached you about your business, would you be interested in doing a deal with someone else?
Christophe Beck :
So hard for me to comment on M&A as you know, Shlomo, but it's a great business for us, it's definitely not excluded from what we're looking at out there. We've done a lot of acquisitions and that's the way, it's grown to a certain extent as well. We started with an acquisition in North Dakota, so a few decades ago as well. So we know how to do, it works really well. We do not excluded, is it number one priority in terms of M&A? No. I've always mentioned it's life science, water, healthcare, and digital are the big ones out there. But, hey, Shlomo, we would not have strategy getting under way of making money. If there's a good opportunity out there, we'll consider it as we've always done.
Shlomo Rosenbaum:
Okay. Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Mr. Monahan, there are no questions at this time. I would like to turn the floor back over to you for closing remarks.
Michael Monahan:
Thank you. That wraps up our third quarter conference call. This conference call and the associated discussion slides will be available for replay on our website. Thanks for your time and participation and best wishes for the rest of the day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines and have a wonderful day.
Operator:
Greetings, and welcome to the Ecolab Second Quarter 2021 Earnings Release Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce to you your host, Mr. Mike Monahan, Senior Vice President, External Relations. Thank you, sir. You may begin.
Mike Monahan:
Thank you. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Ecolab's Second Quarter Conference Call. With me today are Christophe Beck, Ecolab's CEO; and Dan Schmechel, our CFO. A discussion of our results, along with our earnings release and the slides referencing the quarter's results, are available on Ecolab's website at ecolab.com/investor. Please take a moment to read the cautionary statements in these materials, which state that this teleconference and the associated supplemental materials include estimates of future performance. These are forward-looking statements, and actual results could differ materially from those projected. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are described under the Risk Factors section in our most recent Form 10-K and in our posted materials. We also refer you to the supplemental diluted earnings per share information in the release. Starting with a brief overview, strong second quarter results reflected significant year-on-year sales and earnings growth, driven by recovering markets, accelerating pricing and new business wins, which more than offset increased delivered product costs and the slower pace of reopenings outside the U.S. We've implemented aggressive pricing actions to offset increase over product costs leveraging the strong product and service value we deliver to customers. When combined with our strong new business wins, we expect to once again successfully manage the current inflation challenges and uneven global economic recovery to deliver very strong sales and earnings growth in 2021. Our position as a leader in food safety, clean water and healthy environments has become even more important in the last 18 months. We believe this position, along with our strong long-term growth opportunities, remain robust driven by our huge remaining market opportunity, our leading global market positions, our focus on providing our strong customer base with improved results while lowering their water, energy and other operating costs and, through that, our ability to help them meet their growing ESG ambitions. We believe that these sustainable long-term business drivers will continue to yield superior long-term performance for Ecolab and our investors. And now here's Christophe Beck with his comments.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you so much, Mike, and thanks to all of you for joining us today. As expected, Q2 was indeed a very strong quarter for our company. Acquisition adjusted sales rose 12%, driven by the U.S. and China with the reopening of Europe and the rest of the world expected to follow progressively. Adjusted earnings per share ended up a strong 88% over last year. U.S. institutional sales more than doubled in the second quarter versus the same quarter in 2020, clearly outperforming the industry. The number of restaurants we serve as well as the number of solutions they buy from us ended up almost back to 2019 levels and are growing fast. Both are strong signs of how much business we've gained during the pandemic and the growth potential we have as markets reopen. Industrial accelerated to 3% in Q2, driven by strong new business generated during the pandemic and accelerated pricing. Water sales were up 7% with light industries up 12% driven by strong momentum in new segments like data centers, which, by the way, grew 53% in the quarter. Paper was up 10% driven by strong demand for our innovative solutions in board and packaging, while food and beverage kept improving. Downstream remained a bit challenged in the quarter as it repositions itself from a focus on operational efficiency toward new promising sustainability offering. Healthcare and Life Sciences also had very strong and consistent underlying sales growth in Q2 with mid-single and double-digit growth, respectively. Reported sales were only down as they respectively compared to exceptional growth of 13% and 53% in 2020, largely driven by unusual high demands and one timer during the pandemic. And finally the other segments grew 23%, driven by continued strengths of pest elimination, which was up 21% in the quarter benefiting from further market opening and very strong of business. On the margin front things progress very well too which overall margins improving 420 basis points. Beyond the U.S. institutional recovery, our continued progress benefited from accelerated investment made in digital technology during the pandemic as well as overall pricing that accelerated to 2% in the second quarter. With this backdrop and for the full year, we remain confident of our ability to deliver adjusted earnings that are better than 2019, excluding the Texas raise. How much better is the only question, considering the Delta variant, the timing of your opening in Europe and in the rest of the world as well as the speed and amplitude of the rise of inflation. More broadly, our longer-term outlook has never been stronger. Our new business and innovation pipelines are at record levels. Our new growth engines like life sciences, health care, high tech and data centers are all very well positioned to drive incremental growth. And our digital capabilities continue to increase customer value, field productivity and customer experience. Our main focus right now will be to leverage this positive pricing environment to protect and strengthen our margins and do so while further enhancing value for our customers. This is something we've accomplished many times in the past and expect to successfully accomplish once again. Therefore, we've now embarked on a third round of price increases, which will progressively cover the new rapid rise of input costs that we've seen in Q2 with the biggest impact to be seen in Q4 when we expect pricing to reach 4%. Overall, we feel good about our ability to deliver the second half of '21, even if the pacing between the next two quarters will be slightly different than initially anticipated. We now expect attractive sequential improvement in the third quarter and a more significant one in the fourth as pricing actions will hit the P&L. And finally, global trends in people health, like infection prevention and food safety; as well as planet health, like water and carbon emissions are becoming front and center for every business leader. And there's no one positioned to help customers on both fronts better than Ecolab while helping them ensure strong and long-term business sales. In other words, we're strengthening our global position as the natural sustainability partner for our customers. All this, combined with the strengthened highly innovative portfolio, strong business momentum, terrific new wins, accelerated pricing and unique digital capabilities to position us with great momentum for '22 and will contribute to drive continued strong digital -- double-digit earnings growth for the years to come. With that, I look forward to your questions.
Mike Monahan:
Thanks, Christophe. That concludes our formal remarks. As a final note before we begin Q&A, we plan to hold our 2021 Investor Day on Tuesday, September 14 in St. Paul. Operator, please begin the question-and-answer period.
Operator:
Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Tim Mulrooney with William Blair. Please proceed with your question.
Tim Mulrooney:
Good afternoon, Christophe. Thank you for taking my question. So, okay. So I want to focus on raw materials and price, which probably doesn't surprise you. But in the face of raw material cost pressure, I think your typical formula is to increase price to make up for the dollar amount in year one and then the margin in year two. But in your press release, you said the recent pricing actions you took remain ahead of input costs. So I was hoping you could clarify this language a little bit. If your price minus cost dynamic is currently positive, it sounds like you've already moved past Phase 1, and you're essentially already on Phase 2, which is working to rebuild the margin. Am I reading into that statement incorrectly? Or is that how you would characterize it?
Christophe Beck:
The general direction, Tim, is right. Actually, when I look at the first half of 2021, so I like a lot, where pricing was compared to the input cost. We're usually good at that as well so to begin with. Now what has changed is that the indices, as we've all seen, you've seen that as well, so during the second quarter so have changed for the much higher for the second half. And that has indicated we had to change our pricing plans quite significantly. It's been the third time we've done it over the last 12 months. We've engaged those new plants as well with the whole team. We have indicated that as well to customers and progress is good. So, we were ahead. Market has changed a little bit, which forced us to change our plans as well. And I feel good right now that we will be in a good place for the second half, both in terms of dollar and progressively improving the margin. And now to that point, it's going to impact mostly Q4, obviously, because it takes some time obviously to agree with customers to get to that new pricing. So we will see a better improvement in Q4 than what we have expected and a lower improvement in Q3 than what we had expected, but overall, so for the second half, basically at the same place as what we had planned initially.
Tim Mulrooney:
Okay, very clear. And the announcement that you guys gave publicly in a press release, I think that was specifically related to the industrial segments. But presumably, you're also seeing cost pressures in institutional and health care as well. Are you implementing price increases across those divisions as well? Or is this really a conversation about industrial primarily?
Christophe Beck:
We're implementing price increases in every business every year. Tim, this is really a practice that we have coached our teams and our customers for the many past years, as well, really making sure it's not an event, but it's really something that's happening every single year, really driven by the value we create for our customers and not directly driven by the input cost, which is one of the elements, obviously, of the discussion. So you're right, industrial takes the heaviest or biggest part. Because of their cost structure, this is nothing new, and they're really good at it. So, the majority of the price increase is in industrial, but the other businesses are moving up as well at the same time.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Manav Patnaik with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.
Manav Patnaik:
I just had a broad question, which is what do you need to see happen in terms of visibility before you can start giving your detailed guidance like you used to. I was just hoping you could help us through some of the moving pieces maybe beyond just the Delta variants, I suppose.
Christophe Beck:
Yes. Hi, Manav. Good question. So it's all related to the variant Delta or D as it's called out there. As you know, if you look at the past 20 years, we've always delivered within our guidance with the exception of 9/11, unfortunately, so 20 years ago. So for us, the level of assurance and certainty is very high. And we focus on everything we can control, including questions of price and inflation, as we just discussed. The Delta variant is something that is really unusual, hard to predict as well. So that's the only question mark that we have out there. The clearer things are going to become vaccination rates with how governments and countries are reacting as well out there, well, will bring us closer to us providing as well guidance. We will get back to that. We like it. It's something that has been good for us and for investors as well at the same time. So we'll get back when time is right. But so far, I'd say if things do not change materially, our directional guidance remains true, and we will firm it up as soon as variant D becomes more clear.
Manav Patnaik:
Got it. And just maybe on the margin front, I mean if pricing is ahead of cost and you've obviously learned a lot, I think, in terms of efficiency from the past 15 months or so. So just curious if the incrementals and the incremental margins in the business, should we think of that as getting better or more of the same? Or any color there would be helpful.
Christophe Beck:
Overall, for the second half, it's going to be the same. But obviously, so the input cost has changed quite dramatically and the pricing has changed as well, so quite a bit. We had initially thought for the full year that our input cost would increase kind of mid-single digit. That was the initial plan. The way we look at it for the full year now, so it's closer to double digit numbers, so quite a change. And we've changed pricing as well for that. We did add it as well. But let's keep in mind as well that in order to get the margins back to where they used to be, we need to double the pricing versus the input costs since we have a gross margin of 50%, so easy math as such. So, overall, good situation in terms of pricing versus input cost. Second half is going to deliver similar improvement than what we had expected. But as mentioned earlier, the pacing between Q3 and Q4 will be different just because we need some time in order to get agreement with customers.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.
David Begleiter:
Thank you. Christophe, just again on price versus loss, in Q3, do you expect pricing to again exceed input costs in this quarter?
Christophe Beck:
Yes, the price will be ahead of the input cost. And as mentioned before, so our objective is not just to get there, but it's to get back to the margins in percent that we used to have, and that takes a little bit more time. But so far, things are going really well.
David Begleiter:
You mentioned, again, Q3 being below your initial expectations with that catch-up in Q4. How much lower is Q3 going to be below versus your prior expectations on a sequential earnings basis?
Christophe Beck:
This is hard to tell because it depends on agreements with customers, and it's a question of week one or two months. We do that very thoughtfully with our customers. So we're not a commodity-driven company. As you know, we are all driven by the value we create for our customers with whom we've had relationships for decades. So we are very careful in how we do that really in order to make sure that a year from now, they still believe that we did it the right way that it was good for them, well, it was good for us as well. So it's all timing-dependent for Q3. That's why I'm directionally saying it's going to be a little bit pressured in Q3, and it's for Q3. That's why I'm directionally saying it's going to be a little bit pressured in Q3, and it's going to be better in Q4.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Connors with Boenning and Scattergood.
Ryan Connors:
Thanks for taking my question. My first was just on -- you noted that the institutional results were actually not only up nicely year-over-year but actually outpaced the end market, at least as you saw there. Can you kind of give us some color around what metrics or quantitative metrics you have around making that assertion? And then talk about how sustainable that is going forward, is that just a snapback in some specific markets you're in? Or do you think you can continue to outperform as institutional recovers?
Christophe Beck:
I like where we are in the U.S., especially since it's where the recovery happened first or second off the China, obviously, but the size is completely different. Maybe just to give you a few numbers as winning here, you look at the restaurant sales, so where 9% down so for us or 91% back to where they used to be which is a better way to look at it. 15% of the end units have closed as well out there in the market. And the dine-in traffic, which means so in the dining room, so it was down 37% as well in the second quarter. So with us being 91% of where we were before, so it's much better than where the market is. And the second perspective is also, we measure how many restaurants or hotels for that matter -- so we serve and how many solutions they buy as well. And we are back to the levels that we were in 2019, knowing that the traffic is not as high as it used to be. So when traffic is coming back up as well, our growth is going to pick up further as well. So I see that as a sustained development.
Ryan Connors:
Okay. And then on the flip side, there was a lot to like in the report, but Healthcare was a drag, which I mean, I guess we know that last year was the apex of the pandemic, but I'm a little bit surprised to see that. Can you give us some dynamics around that? Is that sort of more virtual medicine that's driving that? And what's the outlook for that Healthcare as we move into the recovery?
Christophe Beck:
No, it's just a comparison versus exceptional results last year driven by the pandemic. So we're comparing some 12% or 13% growth in health care in of 2020 and 53% growth in Life Science as well, so in Q2 driven as well so -- by pharma demand and as well infection prevention solutions as well in the pharma sector. What's important for me is really to look at the underlying growth. So when we strip out -- so the unusual demand of 2020 and one-timers, you see Healthcare, so in mid-single digit, which is better than where we used to be. So this 2%, 3% in the past has moved so closer to the 5%-ish. And Life Science as well underlying is in the double-digit territory, which is very good, so kind of sustained growth as well going forward. So when you strip out the noise, basically, you get to this mid-single and double-digit growth for Healthcare and Life Science, respectively.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Gary Bisbee with Bank of America Securities. Please proceed with your question.
Gary Bisbee:
First question on margins, I wanted to ask a little differently. Obviously, institutional still down from pre-pandemic levels quite a bit along with the revenue and the volumes. But the other three segments all had second quarter margins ahead of the second quarter of '19. And I know you've had ongoing cost reduction efforts, and there's a lot of moving parts, obviously, with the input costs in the short term and everything else. But outside of institutional, which presumably will continue to see the margin recover with revenue. For the other three businesses, is the margin this quarter a reasonable number to use to think about moving forward other than maybe a little bit of raw material hit in Q3 and maybe you get that back in Q4? Or are some of these that are still way above the 2019 margin? Is there risk of some further give-back to get to a more normal go-forward margin base for each of the segments? Thank you.
Christophe Beck:
All three segments are a bit in different places but the headline is that the margin trends are a good indication overall of where we are and where we're heading. But if I just unpack them, just for you, you saw industrial first. Yes, it's growing. But as mentioned before, so it's impacted the most by the input cost, as is always the case, so nothing unusual in here. They have also the biggest share in pricing, and they're really good at it as well at the same time. So there are different elements of cost and price are different, but ultimately so, industrial is going to keep its development in gross margin, and we expect the overall year to stay fairly close to where it used to be as well so last year. Healthcare and Life Science, it's -- as mentioned before, so we're comparing to very unusual growth numbers in Q2 as well last year. And if you strip that out, ultimately, so our margins have improved very nicely in 2020. And we expect as well in Healthcare, Life Science to get quite close to where we were in terms of record margins in '21. And as you mentioned, so institutional is on its path to recover as such. So it's maybe so the business where the margin we had in Q2, the improvement in Q2, so it was a bit overstated as such because we compare in 2020 as well with two special events. The first one was the bad debt that we recorded for obvious reasons in Q2 during the beginning of the pandemic. And second, we foregone as well so the lease payments for these machines. So you compare something that was lower. As such, it's going to change a little bit in Q3 and Q4. But overall, for the Company, good situation in margin and assuming that our assumption obviously is for roles and pricing happen as planned, which I do ultimately, so margins should keep evolving as expected.
Gary Bisbee:
Great. And then a quick follow-up. You mentioned in the prepared remarks that you put out there, refocus in mining away from coal and alumina. I think you've alluded to that in the past, but also I saw in downstream, some low-margin refinery exits. Are these materials? Or is this more just sort of coming out of the pandemic trying to refocus the portfolio on the best opportunities? Any color on the -- if there's any other strategic sort of…
Christophe Beck:
Yes, Gary. It's mostly the latter. So it's really refocusing the portfolio towards the better opportunities. The mining ports moving away from coal, and we focusing towards fertilizers, for instance, which are related to ag into food is something that we started obviously, so way before the pandemic, and it's working really well. So, our exposure to cost has become minimal, over the past few years, and our exposure to the growth segments has become much better, as well. So, risks are lower and growth potential or higher, which is which is good. On the downstream side, it's a bit different. Downstream, it's a bit of a tale of two stories in here. So you have petrochem kind of plastics, which is an end is an end market that's doing well. We've been growing for a long time. We are still growing right now, and we were growing during the pandemic. So this is an end market we like in an end market that we want to further focus on and we're bringing new solutions as well to recycle better plastic, for instance, which is very traditional with our sustainable solutions approach for this business. And then the last point is refining, which is an industry that is in a complete transformation. As we all know, they have to reduce their footprint in terms of carbon footprint as well in here. And that's going to take a few years. So for us to get it right in the way that we have refineries produce with a lower carbon footprint and very good pilot project in there and help those companies as well refocus on renewable as well. So I like where we're going here that's going to take quite some time in order to get to a place where it sustained high-level growth as well in refining. So that's the way I would express it.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
John McNulty:
So I guess maybe two quick ones. Just with regard to Europe and how you see the reopening or gradual reopening impacting the businesses, can you give us a little bit of color or thoughts on how to think about things sequentially from 2Q to 3Q and the pace of that reopening for both the institutional and the industrial segment?
Christophe Beck:
Yes. So, hi, John, the Europe reopening happens of early Q3. Let's put it that way, as you've read as well in the newspaper, I had a chance as well to spend a few weeks as well in Europe. So towards the end of June -- and Europe was clearly close until June, then suddenly, we opened everything. So we've really seen a pickup in our institutional business, so first and foremost, because kind of went from zero to kind of open. Obviously, that's quite a dramatic change, and we've seen that in our numbers, so very encouraging trends in institutional Europe. And we see industrial, which was in a very different place. They were not closed, obviously, like restaurants and hotels, improving as well. So overall, Europe is doing okay so far. And international overall as well, it's an interesting perspective as well to keep in mind where last year, international was kind of flat, which means outside North America. So it was kind of flat for the whole company. And we see it coming back to growth, not only in Q2, but it's going to get even better in Q3, so good news on that front, too.
John McNulty:
Got it. That's helpful color. And then I guess from a raw material perspective, can you speak to whether or not you had any issues in terms of sourcing raw materials and if that had any impact on the businesses? Or has it really just been a function of inflation and just getting that through in terms of pricing?
Christophe Beck:
It's a great question. The market is tight out there. The Texas freeze made it harder, obviously, so in February for everyone out there. We're lucky enough to have a great procurement team, a great supply chain team as well that could find alternative sourcing, that could reformulate product. So overall, it's been heavy lifting within the organization. But we've been able to supply our customers in a fairly continued manner during the second quarter, and we see that improving as well in the quarters to come. So bottom line, a lot of work, but the great teams are helping customers being supplied as they should.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of John Roberts with UBS. Please proceed with your question.
John Roberts:
Labor is an issue for your institutional customers right now. Is your Lobster software or any of your other digital offerings and enabling you to help your customers with their labor issues?
Christophe Beck:
It does. Actually, we're expecting to have close to 1 million users with Lobster Ink. by the end of the year, which is driven by exactly what you're saying. Those labor shortages in hotels and restaurants are creating some new challenges for that industry. They need to train a lot of people coming into restaurants and hotels, and that kind of solutions are definitely helpful. So that's the good side of the story.
John Roberts:
And then could you talk about some of your other new product offerings? So many of the new products like fast-acting, hard surface cleaners had a surge last year, but are you still penetrating new customers? Maybe talk about it in terms of market penetration or customers that you're adding.
Christophe Beck:
We are actually -- when you think about it, the fact that we have as many restaurants buying as many solutions as pre-pandemic today in a market which has seen units are declining by 15% during that time is a direct outcome of, first and foremost, Ecolab Science Certified, which is the circle the customer program since the customers had to buy all the solutions in order to be certified as such. So that's been a great story that's progressing very well and you've maybe seen that McDonald's as well for instance, has endorsed as well that that program as well as a corporate companies have great story here, which is driven penetration of units and solutions are really good. And you're right. So when we think about sanitizing products, we've refocused quite a bit over the last 18 months partly driven by the pandemic as well. All the surface sanitizers that we brought on the market are doing really well, by the way, and we still see a double-digit growth versus what we had pre-pandemic, which is a good sign, and we will keep innovating as well in that field. Like with disinfecting wipes, for instance, as well. So we've acquired two companies, one in the U.S., one in the U.K. in order to supply as well that market. So far so good on the innovation front and especially on the disinfecting side.
Operator:
Next question comes from the line of Kevin McVeigh with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.
Kevin McVeigh:
I wonder -- just a point of clarification. The 4% price increasing, is that across all of Ecolab or just the industrial business? And if it's across all, is it 75% industrial or just no way to frame out that 4% increase overall that you talked to?
Christophe Beck:
Yes. Kevin, so 4% is for the whole company, and you will have more in industrial because that's where we bear the brunt of the cost increases as well. So you're going to have higher than 4% in industrial. And in the other businesses, you're going to have lower than four ultimately.
Kevin McVeigh:
Got it. And then just within kind of the downstream business overall, as you're clearly repositioning that, any thoughts as to what percentage of the revenues refining today and then where that ultimately bottoms, and ultimately, you're going into kind of higher growth areas as well? Just at 100%, is there ways to think about those end markets just within the downstream business itself?
Christophe Beck:
It's hard to tell, but I would say that we've reached the bottom. In the refining part of downstream right now, so petrochem has been doing well all along. So that's a different story, obviously, as such. So I think it's going to improve progressively as of now in downstream refining. But it's going to take us a year or zero to get to the right place where we can say we truly like the trajectory of that business. It's an industry that is in total transformation as well. The good news is that we are uniquely positioned to work with those companies to help them get the better place. I've had great discussions with some of the CEOs of those companies lately as well. They need us more than ever that's especially true with European companies, but also in the U.S. So longer term, I think it's going to be a very good opportunity for us.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.
Vincent Andrews:
Thank you and good afternoon. You mentioned in the prepared comments in specialty in the food retail business that you were seeing sales reversion as expected, some of it, I think, coming just from less consumer demand, but also there were labor issues from a customer perspective. And one of those things seems temporal and the other one seems sort of a little bit more structural. So could you help us understand how to think about those trends on a go-forward basis?
Christophe Beck:
Yes. Hi, Vincent. So, it's really because we're comparing to a strong Q2 in specialty last year. It's a business that's doing well actually. So it's a comparison question underlying. So I like a lot -- so where quick serve and food retail are heading, very strong businesses, very profitable and serving successful industries right now as well. So it's the comparison that's kind of a little bit so skewing the numbers, otherwise, underlying very good, and I see a future that's going to keep on what you've seen pre-pandemic as well with those two businesses.
Vincent Andrews:
Okay. And then just as a follow-up. I assume you're on track for the $120 million of cost savings you've targeted for this year and I think the total number overall eventually was going to be 365. Are those still the right numbers?
Christophe Beck:
Yes, let me give that question to Dan. I was looking forward to a question as well there. So that's a perfect opportunity.
Dan Schmechel:
Such a great question, so thank you. Yes, we remain very much on track to deliver our incremental $120 million year-on-year. And more broadly, maybe the A 2020 program, which has gone through a couple of iterations, we feel very good about the progress that we've made sequentially, and we'll continue to.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Scott Schneeberger with Oppenheimer. Please proceed with your question.
Scott Schneeberger:
So my first, I want to inquire about new business wins. A lot of the description today has been recovering markets, but we -- in the press release, a lot of highlighted new business wins, and that's across water, paper, sign certified, you talked about and even pest. Could you just elaborate a little bit on maybe where you're getting the most strength and what type of wins you're getting? Thanks.
Christophe Beck:
Great question. Thank you, Scott. So new business, interestingly enough, is gaining traction in every end market. We thought that in some markets like the institutional markets over the past 18 months, it would have been way harder. Actually, it's one of the areas where we've made the most progress which is really good news. Industrial is doing really well in Healthcare as well as Life Science has always been great at it, which we see in the numbers as such, so a really good story. I would say one of the new emerging stories in your business is what many goals is this net zero, with many customers are trying to get closer to their sustainability ambitions, so water neutral, or water positive or carbon neutral, carbon positive. And those discussions with those forward looking companies interestingly enough, our strengthening our relationships with them because they need our help even more than before, and that's growing as well as our new business opportunities because they need our help in all the units around the world and need much more solutions as well from us in order to get closer to the net zero ambition. So that's one of the new drivers that we're seeing emerging, which is good for our company.
Scott Schneeberger:
Great. And then I think a good follow-up to that would be just to ask specifically on data centers and animal health, some of your other emerging growth opportunities, just a progress report there. And any quantification on pace of growth or margin expansion?
Christophe Beck:
Yes. So starting with data centers. As mentioned earlier, we've been growing I think, 53% in the second quarter. It's been a terrific story. It used to be part of our light water industries business. In the past, we've created a dedicated unit 12 or 18 months ago, which is really a division that's focused on data centers and microelectronics, by the way, the Intel of that world as well. And interestingly enough, its new expertise that we could build, its new offering that we could provide to those companies that are really interested in close to 100% uptime for all the reasons that we understand, our secure solutions as well from a digital technology perspective, they want to make sure that any access that we have with them is done in a totally secure way as well. And those are companies that are very sustainability-friendly as well. So they all want to get -- so close to the net zero as fast as they can, all that is really driving that business in a great way. Animal health is a complete different story. Obviously, as such, this is something that takes time as well. We've created a dedicated unit. We've made acquisitions as well in that field, underlying. I like where we're going. Q2 has been a bit subpar because we compare it to a very high Q2 in 2020, but that's a business that's going to be very interesting going forward for, at least one important reason that most of the farmers won't be or are not allowed to use antibiotics to protect the animals, and they need way more solutions in order to make sure that they are in a healthy environment in order not to get sick. And this is exactly what animal health is doing in our business. So, it's an evolving proposition, but that's clearly aligned with the longer-term trends that customers and consumers like you and I ultimately are expecting -- so from the food manufacturers.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Rosemarie Morbelli with Gabelli & Company. Please proceed with your question.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about M&A. You have been making small acquisitions. Do you have an appetite for larger ones? And are there targets that you would be interested in?
Christophe Beck:
So the short answer is, yes. We're interested in M&A and larger ones. We've done smaller ones over the past few months, as mentioned earlier, in the wipes area, which is a perfect complement to our offering in institutional, in healthcare and in industrial, and we couldn't produce that ourselves. We were manufacturing with other companies, and we've seen during the pandemic that, that could be a great business for us today and especially going forward. So we've done that as well. We've done animal health as well last year, as I just mentioned as well as to the previous question. And we've been extremely active on the M&A front over the last six months. We have a very rich pipeline. We have very serious discussions with many as well out there. But at the end of the day, we have this very disciplined line on what we do and what we don't do. And when I look at all the discussions that we've had so far, we didn't find the exact opportunity so right now. But I feel confident that in the future, so we will get to a bigger opportunity at the right time.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
Can you share with us any particular area where you are more likely to make a larger acquisition?
Christophe Beck:
So I can't go too much in detail, Rosemarie, for obvious reasons, but the core areas of water is interesting, so for us; life science, which is a very successful business serving a very large and high growth as well end market; and third, related to digital technology as well. So those are kind of three areas that are very interesting for us.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
All right. And then, if I may, what is the size of your animal health business currently?
Christophe Beck:
I'm not sure we've disclosed that so far…
Rosemarie Morbelli:
But you can do it now.
Christophe Beck:
A few hundred million, let's put it that way, Rosmarie.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
I'm sorry, did you say 200?
Christophe Beck:
A few hundred.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of P.J. Juvekar with Citi. Please proceed with your question.
Eric Petrie:
Christophe, it's Eric Petrie on for P.J. You noted you were gaining share in U.S. restaurants. I was wondering if you had a similar data point on lodging. And then in both restaurants and lodging, how does that compare in Europe and Asia?
Christophe Beck:
So my comment was mostly focused on restaurants because it was a highly impacted area. I like the progress we make in hotels a lot as well. And mostly because of the offering that we provide them in terms of our automation is of an application of our solutions. You've heard about the staff shortages that they all have. I've had the chance to talk to a few CEOs as well, so lately from large hotel chains in the U.S. and abroad. And this is top of mind [indiscernible]. So the solutions that we have which are not new, those are things that we've been doing. So for many, many years are ultimately helping them clean quicker, which is something they really saw challenged with right now or in the dish room as well as to clean dishes in an easier way, passed away with less labor as well, the same on water, the same on housekeeping and so on. And those are solutions that are ultimately helping us sell new business in lodging. So good progress in lodging as we've seen as well in foodservice.
Eric Petrie:
And just a follow-up then to clarify, would you say you're gaining share in restaurants in Europe and Asia as well? Or is that not settled out?
Christophe Beck:
We have less numbers over there, and to be honest, so those markets are reopening right now. So we've gained new business. We have to see how it looks in practice then afterwards. So I think that in the months and quarters to come, I will be in a better position to really share whether we've gained, which I believe we will, but I want to have the facts first or not.
Eric Petrie:
Okay. And second from my follow-up question. How much were your sanitizer and hard surface cleaners sales down in the quarter? And what do you expect in terms of moderation for second half?
Christophe Beck:
So sanitizing sales were -- so just to put in perspective, it's 10% of our overall sales for the Company. We had significant growth last year and we expect to be lower than last year overall. So, we don't disclose all the detailed numbers, but quite a bit higher than 2019. And that's probably the way you need to think about that, so lower than the peak of the pandemic, thank god, but higher than 2019 because practices have changed in most end markets and countries.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.
Laurence Alexander:
Just a quick one to follow up on the discussion earlier of the shifts away from some of the lower margin businesses like refining. If you look at the moves you've done over the last couple of years, can you give a rough sense for how much sales you've moved away from sort of some of the out-of-favor business segments over the last couple of years? And how much stronger your sales line would have been if you hadn't done that, calling up the mix?
Christophe Beck:
It's a great question, Laurence, but I have no idea because it's something that we're doing all along in every business. The focus is really to move up the chain, move up the margins. It can't be driven only by pricing. It needs to be because we are focusing on the higher-margin segments, higher-margin offering as well. So, its continuous work, where in some areas, it's more extreme, like the coal, as mentioned before, or refining in downstream that are more significant. But I couldn't put a number exactly on that because it's a continuous process.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Shlomo Rosenbaum with Stifel. Please proceed with your question.
Shlomo Rosenbaum:
Christophe, I want to ask you a little bit about how the Company is leveraging the technology investments as it approaches the C level of an organization in terms of their sustainability. So my understanding is this is enabling Ecolab to start discussions with the C-suite as opposed to starting discussions more at the plant level. And I'm wondering, how are those discussions progressing? Is there an increased pace? Are you seeing a large potential for you to accelerate or an incremental potential for you to accelerate Ecolab's revenue growth by being able to sell further up the chain within the organizations?
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Shlomo. This is a great topic. I'd love to have more time to zero in on that, but maybe so two quick answers, the what and the how. First, on the what, we have always more customers. It's not new, but it's clearly accelerating. So customers that are asking us to partner with us in order to find a path in order to get to net zero or positive water or carbon, Microsoft being one of the obvious ones. And it's not a secret since they've been expressing that on CNN over the past year or so. So in order to get there, you need to have digital technology because you need to understand to make it easy to recycle water, which is a physical product. We need to understand in real time the quality of the water or like thereof actually, which indicates what kind of chemistry we need or what kind of technology is required in order to bring it back to the standard level that's being used in a data center or in a food plant as such. This is a direct application of our digital technology. And second is the how. Since we are serving thousands of locations out there in the world, we are uniquely placed to know, what's world-class performance that can be achieved? Take a brewery, for instance, how much water per hectoliter of beer that's being produced. Well, we can compare within a company, a brewing company, how does the performance of the individual plants compared to the best-in-class. We can compare across brewers as well. We can compare across industries as well as a company as well. So we can provide customers with good benchmark of what good looks like; and second, how to get there as well. That's all enabled by digital technology that we've been building, developing and implementing, so over the last 10, 20 years around the world.
Shlomo Rosenbaum:
Okay. And so is there, I guess, just to keep that going, so is there -- do you see a potential for that to really incrementally improve the revenue growth of the business because you're able to sell at these higher levels, so that obviously, you bring the capabilities that other companies can bring to the table?
Christophe Beck:
Yes, absolutely. So what you saw with data centers, so the growth of 53% is directly driven by that. And where light as well, which has been growing 7% as well in the quarter is also driven by that kind of solutions. So early indications are positive and the more we can implement that across the end market the more it's going to help us as well as a company.
Shlomo Rosenbaum:
Okay, great. If you don't mind my sneaking in one more. Just the areas that are completely open now in terms of restaurants, let's say, taking the Florida or Texas, how does the chemical usage compare to what it was pre-COVID? What are the levels in the restaurants that more customers before and there are still customers?
Christophe Beck:
It's still lower today, Shlomo, because in the dining rooms are, as mentioned before, so in Q2, it was 37% down so versus pre-pandemic as such, which means that the usage of cleaning and sanitizing solutions has been lower as well. But as dine-in is going up, so the demand is going up as well at the same time. So, the fact that we have the same number of units buying the same number of solutions today ultimately is a good sign as well as compound growth when dine-in is going to pick up as well in the weeks and months to come.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. And I would like to turn the floor back over to management for closing remarks.
Mike Monahan:
Thanks, everyone. That wraps up our second quarter conference call. This call and the associated discussion and slides will be available for replay on our website. Thanks very much for your participation today, and have a great rest of the day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.
Operator:
Greetings, and welcome to Ecolab’s First Quarter 2021 Earnings Release Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It’s now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mike Monahan, Senior Vice President, External Relations. Thank you, Mr. Monahan, you may now begin.
Mike Monahan:
Thank you. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Ecolab’s first quarter conference call. With me today are Christophe Beck, Ecolab’s CEO; and Dan Schmechel, our CFO. A discussion of our results, along with our earnings release and the slides referencing the quarter’s results are available on Ecolab’s website at ecolab.com/investor. Please take a moment to read the cautionary statements in these materials, which state that this teleconference and the associated supplemental materials include estimates of future performance. These are forward-looking statements, and actual results could differ materially from those projected. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are described under the Risk Factors section in our most recent Form 10-K and in our posted materials. We also refer you to the supplemental diluted earnings per share information in the release. Starting with a brief overview, the first quarter showed continued sequential business improvement that was offset by the Texas freeze. Adjusted EPS were $0.81. That EPS included the impact of short-term supply chain and customer disruption from the freeze that were estimated to be $0.10 per share. Healthcare and Life Sciences segment showed further strong sales growth. The Industrial segment experienced a modest sales decline as its growth was offset by the freeze impact. The Other segment significantly narrowed its sales declined from the fourth quarter and the Institutional and Specialty segments sales declined narrowed slightly from the fourth quarter as sales trends within our U.S. institutional business improved through the end of the first quarter. Our markets are broadly improving and increasing rate of vaccination along with the easing of social restrictions provides further support for the global economic recovery. We expect that broad improvement leveraged by our investments and the work we have done to further our critical innovation, service and digital business drivers, as well as our cost efficiency measures will help drive strong comparison against 2020 results over the balance of the year and results in 2021 adjusted earnings per share that exceed 2019 adjusted earnings per share from continuing operations, excluding the estimated $0.15 per share impact from the Texas freeze. Over the past year, we’ve seen the value of Ecolab’s premium product and service expertise, once again, underscored through continued strong new business growth, as well as our strengthened customer relationships, despite the difficult market conditions. Our position as leader in food safety, clean water and healthy environments has become even more important. We believe this position along with our strong long-term growth opportunities remain robust driven by our huge remaining market opportunity, our leading global market positions, our focus on providing our strong customer base with improved results, while lowering their water, energy and other operating costs and through that, our ability to help them meet their growing ESG ambition. We believe these sustainable long-term business drivers will continue to yield superior long-term performance for Ecolab and our investors. Now here’s Christophe Beck with his comment.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you so much, Mike, and good afternoon, everyone. I’m very pleased with our first quarter, which was right in line with our expectations. Excluding the Texas freeze, which we discussed earlier our business continued to show solid fundamental improvement that gives us confidence in our full year outlook. Our underlying business momentum, as well as margin development gets improving across the board leading to strong results in the first quarter. Excluding the short-term impact of the Texas freeze our Q1 adjusted EPS showed a significantly narrowing decline versus the prior year continuing our improving quarterly trends. It’s also ahead of what we delivered in Q1 2019, which is a good indication for our expected full year delivery. We did all this, while continuing to invest in our major growth initiatives and in our global team capabilities to leverage our position as the markets reopen. Excluding the freeze, all segments stayed strong or showed continued sequential improvement. Our fundamental business strength get gaining momentum, especially in our Institutional division, which saw definitive pick up as we exited March. Our Industrial segment, which was most impacted by Texas freeze delivered improved underlying growth trends versus the fourth quarter of 2020, and continued to further strengthen its margin. Healthcare and life sciences maintained their strong double digit growth and solid margin improvement. This good start strengthens our confidence for the full year and beyond. Our general market outlook remains largely unchanged versus what we said in previous calls. North America and China moving ahead of our previous expectations, while Europe and several emerging markets remained behind as they recover from extended lockdowns and are still impacted by a rather slow pace of vaccination. So the exact timing of the global reopenings might shift a few months, which might also shift some of the recovery into Q3. We expect strong growth in the second quarter, driven by improving end markets and accelerated underlying growth momentum. We expect these trends to continue in the second half of the year. Our objective has been to start the year in a position of strength and Q1 shows, we clearly achieved this. Our net new business pipeline increased to record highs and our global market shares are strengthening. Our differentiated innovations are continuing to help our customers protect their consumers and our world-class programs help them preserve vital natural resources, while generating very attractive financial returns. And with our new Ecolab Science Certified Assurance program, we have become the brand that reaches customers and consumers in time they needed their most. All this underscores our confidence that we are on a path to deliver full year 2021 adjusted EPS ahead of 2019 EPS, excluding the estimated $0.15 impact of that Texas freeze. Looking beyond the pandemic, our long-term position is better than ever in a world where hygiene standards are rising, where food safety and infection risk awareness has reached new levels, where the expected gap between water supply and water demand is what it had never. Our differentiated value proposition as a global leader in water, hygiene and infection prevention services, and technologies positions us uniquely to capture these accelerating growth trends. The combination of this unmatched value proposition and the breadth of our comprehensive offering makes us the obvious partner for global companies to help them deliver on their most ambitious sustainability commitments. Our ability to serve customers at 3 million locations in 132 countries with 25,000 dedicated underground experts in 40 industries allows us to deliver the same standards of quality and performance anywhere around the world. And our new business pipeline, breakthrough innovation, unmatched digital footprint, world-class scientific expertise and passion for exceptional execution, we continue to lead to sustain growth momentum and continued double digit earnings growth for the years to come. I look forward to your question. So Mike, back to you.
Mike Monahan:
Thank you. That concludes our formal remarks. As a final note, before we begin Q&A, we plan to hold our 2021 Investor Day on Thursday, September 16 at St. Paul. Operator, would you please begin the question-and-answer period?
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Thank you. Our first question will be coming from the line of Tim Mulrooney with William Blair. Please proceed with your questions.
Tim Mulrooney:
Good afternoon.
Christophe Beck:
Good afternoon, Tim.
Tim Mulrooney:
Hi, Christophe. I know everyone’s expecting a strong recovery in the Institutional segment in the second quarter, particularly given the easy comparison that you have with last year. But I’m curious if you could maybe talk about how the recovery in that segment is unfolding on a global basis. How is U.S. institutional performing recently relative to some of your other major global markets? And how do you see that playing out through the second quarter?
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Tim. So on institutional, net-net it’s happening as expected. We had the U.S. and China ahead of our expectations as we can read as well in the news. And on the other hand, so we have Europe and a few emerging markets that are behind as we can see with restrictions, with lockdowns, with the slow pace of vaccinations, especially in Europe as well. So that’s the balance that we are trying to manage. When I think about how institutional did during the first quarter. We saw a nice pickup in March, it’s being confirmed in April right now in the second quarter. So net-net Q2 should be more or less as expected if there is one caveat might be so the timing of reopening in Europe and some of the emerging markets that might shift some of that growth in Q3. But for the full year, I confirm the outlook the way we described it in the previous call.
Tim Mulrooney:
Okay. That’s great. Thanks. And as my follow-up, can you just talk about within the Institutional segment how your customers, that are open, how they’re spending? I know this has been a common theme that folks have asked on a conference call but curious on your updated thoughts. Are customers spending more than they were relative to pre-COVID levels on things like hard and soft surface cleaners, where I know that there’s maybe some elevated demand. And do you think eventually that demand returns to pre-COVID levels? Or do you think that it settled somewhere above pre-COVID levels given the emphasis on virus protection and the like. Thank you.
Christophe Beck:
Good question, Tim. So our focus as you know is on our corporate accounts, so those are chain customers. Regional or global customers those are the ones who have weathered the pandemic better than others as well. Most of them are investing in new units or in the refreshing of current units as well, which bodes very well for our business for today and for tomorrow. To your question on the hygiene products, basically the way we think about it is that it’s going to be a bit less than during the pandemic where the measures obviously are going to be a little bit less strong than what we’d experienced over the past 15 months. But it’s going to be higher than what we’d experienced to pre-pandemic as well. So net-net, we think that our position in institutional has strengthened and the customers that we serve are going to be in a better position as well.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Manav Patnaik with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.
Manav Patnaik:
Yes. Thank you. Good afternoon. I just wanted to attach on your comments around Europe, if you could just elaborate a bit more in terms of – I know pre-pandemic, it was structurally I guess, just a little growth area and there was some competitive dynamics. So I was just curious if you see any of that changing, once we do get this inbound or reopening.
Christophe Beck:
Hi, Manav. So to your on Europe, so Europe had a good year last year. So in 2020 we had flat sales overall. We had our profit margins that went up as well. So overall I was very pleased with the business development that we saw in that critical region for us. And if I look at 2021, it’s kind of an on/off approach that they are having. So first I’d like to put on the side to the UK, which was partly reopen, as we know, so way ahead in terms of vaccinations versus continental Europe. So UK, we saw a good development over there, continental Europe, so most of the countries are in complete lockdown, so most of the large countries have curfews even as well as that’s true for Germany and for France for instance as well. So most, if not all of the restaurants and hotels are for the most part closed, which is something that’s going to change hopefully before the summer. They’re all talking about reopening in order to protect the summer season. I hope that that’s going to be true. It’s going to be a bit later than what I had expected ultimately here, but then it’s going to drive a rebound which is going to be positive in Q3. So, as I mentioned before, we might have some of the growth we were expecting in Q2 shifting to Q3. But all in all, so for the full year, it’s going to be similar than what we had thought.
Manav Patnaik:
Okay, got it. And then the other question I just had Christophe was on water. I know it was 3% growth backing out the Texas freeze. But just given just the water scarcity issues out there, I was just curious, can water grow just like life sciences and healthcare is growing just given the need out there? Or are there any limitations to get to that kind of growth rate?
Christophe Beck:
Yes. For water, so you mentioned it was 3% ex the Texas freeze, it’s important as well to keep in mind that within water you have light industries, heavy industries both are growing ex-Texas in mid-single plus which is very good in Q1 and you have mining, which is still in the negative territory since we exited some of our coal business. But even mining is going to come back in a nice way, I think in the next few quarters and years for sure. And to your point on water scarcity, we see always more customers are coming to us and asking us how to help them reach their net zero objective that they have for 2030 or for 2050, which is right in line with our ESG promise as the company and offering our customers. And that’s going to feed as well. I think the momentum, so for water in the years to come.
Manav Patnaik:
All right. Thank you very much.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Manav.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your questions.
David Begleiter:
Thank you. Christophe, can you discuss the pressure from raws you are seeing and the pricing you need right now to offset that and when that might equalize prices versus raws?
Christophe Beck:
Yes. Hi, David. On the raws it was pretty benign in Q1, as we’ve shared, but if we look at the full year, if we look at the indices that you read to it’s obviously much more than what we had expected initially. But when I step back and look at the overall picture, it’s roughly kind of mid-single gross in terms of cost for our overall raws spend, which is more than what we had expected, but something that we had experienced in the past as well. We know and we have the capability to price for that in a good way. That we price to over customers based on value that we create as well. So for them, which means that we do that as well over time, it’s not a rapid shift over a month, take it some time. And just as a reminder, we tried to get the dollar value, so within 12 months back and the margin percent, so in 24 months, so the second year or so. The way we look at it today for 2021 might be a slight net negative. But I’m not even sure about that, our teams are good in doing it, and what we’re seeing right now is nothing exceptional versus what we’ve experienced in the past.
David Begleiter:
No, very good. And can you just discuss the competitive intensity in the marketplace. You have – one of your competitors is now public. Talk about your share gains you saw in Q1 and what you expect as you go through the year versus perhaps to do a more public profile to competitor.
Christophe Beck:
So I’m really happy with the share gains that we have in most, if not all businesses actually where we tracking the number of units that we are serving, the number of solutions that we serve in to existing, you need as well. And we’ve talked about that over the past few quarters that was an objective for the whole team during the pandemic to gain share that when it reopens, we can leverage obviously that pick up and that’s happening as we expected, which is really good. And you’re right, so one of our competitors has become public over the past few weeks. We’re very familiar with them. We’ve been competing with them for many, many years. We respect them a lot as well. And I would say they make us better because we need to be better than them. And when you think about it we overlap in a - less than a third of our end markets. We’re 5x larger, we invest 10x times more in R&D and digital than they do as well. So I feel really good about what we can do for our customers and how are we gaining shares versus them on the marketplace.
David Begleiter:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Rosemarie Morbelli with G. Research. Please proceed with your question.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone.
Christophe Beck:
Good afternoon, Rosemarie.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
So Christophe, what would be the likelihood that you could be close to the 2019 level of [indiscernible] including the hit from the freeze and outside of Europe recovering? Or do you need Europe to open its doors to all Americans vaccinated and we are all going there in order to help you guys? What do you need in order to do better than what you are looking at currently?
Christophe Beck:
So right now, I feel very good about delivering these 2019 adjusted EPS, excluding the Texas freeze as you mentioned. The Q1 delivery saw – has increased our confidence to deliver that. As mentioned before, there might be some shift between Q2 and Q3 because of the timing of reopening in Europe, as you mentioned. But overall with everything I know right now, I think that the delivery as we described it is the right target. If things improve in Europe better than the old thing, well, we will definitely try to gain more momentum. But for now I think that the 2019 EPS deliveries would be a good target excluding Texas.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
Okay. Thanks. And then looking at SMB, could you talk a little bit a more details of the different segments or areas in that particular segment?
Christophe Beck:
The SMB had a good year. Last year, it’s one of our best businesses as you know, so good growth, good margin, good margin improvement. The all industrial and segment obviously did as well. SMB had a strong start in 2020 when the pantry loading, so was happening in the first quarter and a little bit beyond as well. So we have some compare reasons challenges right now, but underlying, I feel good about where SMB is going. It’s a little bit different by end market. So we had the milk products that were impacted for a while because of schools being closed. That’s improving progressively, so which is good. We see beverage and brews beers improving in some places, especially in the U.S. but very strong in Latin America where everything is closed. So that’s going to be good for the future. That’s a little bit less good right now. And in the food segment that’s where we have strong comparisons versus the previous year where pressures a little bit for the year-on-year comparison. But net-net, the Q1 fees a bit softer because of the comparison, but underlying, and especially when I look at the new business being generated in SMB, the next few quarters are going to show some good delivery as it used to be as well in the past.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
All right. Thank you.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Rosemarie.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Gary Bisbee with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.
Gary Bisbee:
Hey guys. Good afternoon. I guess the first question, can you just give us an update on where we are with the cost savings programs? Sort of what have you achieved to date? What’s likely to be achieved in 2021? And then how much savings are left from those big programs for beyond 2021? Thank you.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Gary. I’ll pass it to Dan, who has the details. But generally, the progress that we’ve made in our cost savings program, which are all meant to strengthen our performance, post-pandemic as well. So if anything, things have progressed better than we had expected. But with that, Dan, maybe some more detail.
Dan Schmechel:
Sure. Gary, thank you. Just for common reference, maybe it’s probably helpful again, to build up the pieces of our cost savings program, which you’ll recall was originally announced back in 2018 has accelerated 2020. This was the initiative to capture new investments in our digital offering with a $200 million cost savings target. We expanded it at the time we announced the ChampionX then covered things like spend, cost and anticipated costs related to ChampionX. We expanded it again to cover some aspects of high chain industrial business, and most recently to cover some restructuring, really some reshaping maybe of our institutional business to improve principally field delivery. So you add all that up and we have a targeted cost savings of about $365 million. Some of that is in gross margin. The big bulk of it is in SG&A. Year-on-year the incremental piece that we expect to capture in 2021 is in the neighborhood if you look just at the SG&A piece $120 million, so that’s a big help in 2021. I’d remind you there’s a lot of – $91 million, I’m sorry. There’s a big piece that is after – the net of it is that we think that this entire program will essentially be delivered by the end of 2021 and there’ll be pieces of the institutional program that’s built to 2022, but the bulk of it will be fully accrued and fully delivered by the end of 2021.
Gary Bisbee:
Okay, great. Thanks. And then the follow-up question, just, how are you thinking about multi-year growth beyond 2021 as we get more normal performance for the business post-pandemic. Historically you’d laid out a number of long-term aspirational targets. Should we think back to those as appropriate? Or just can you give us a sense how you’re thinking about the multi-year?
Christophe Beck:
Gary, just to make sure I understand your question. So you mean in terms of sales growth and earnings growth, right?
Gary Bisbee:
That’s right. Yes. So I know this year’s got easy comps and there’s a lot of moving parts, but over the next two, three, four years, are those normal targets still reasonable? Thank you.
Christophe Beck:
Yes. Our ambition, Gary has not changed, so the 6% to 8% organic, the 13% to 15% EPS that has been true for many, many years, and it’s not going to change in the future. If anything, our position has strengthened out there, when you think about the rise of hygiene standards did the search for most companies to improve their profile in terms of ESG delivery, net zero in water consumption. So being one of them the need for digital solutions as well. So those are all things that are improving, our position so going forward, so no change in terms of growth expectations for the future. If anything, our position has as improved.
Gary Bisbee:
Great. Thank you.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Gary.
Operator:
The next question is coming from the line of John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your questions.
John McNulty:
Yes. Thanks for taking my question. In the Institutional business specifically, can you speak to the number of accounts that you serve this quarter versus the prior quarter? And how that may have changed? And then I guess to that are starting to see any early signs of new account or I guess, potential customer launches at this point? Or is it a little bit early given where we are in the pandemic kind of stages at this point?
Christophe Beck:
Good question, John. We don’t share the exact number of accounts or solutions per accounts that we’re tracking on a monthly basis for a long time, actually feel competitive reasons for the most part. But what I can say is that the number of accounts are keep going up which is good month after month, which is giving us confidence obviously for the growth of our business going forward because we talked to grow without having more customers buying by programs from us. So more accounts, buying more solutions, and one thing I’d like to add as well is the Ecolab Science Certified program that we’ve launched a year plus ago in institutional requires customers to buy most of our solutions in order to qualify for this certification. And this is driving as well, penetration of solutions in a good way, and it’s helping as well with the retention as well going forward. So not only are we gaining number of accounts and solutions, but we are keeping them as well longer because customers are interested in keeping the certification at the same time.
John McNulty:
Got it. And is there a way to think about on the Ecolab Science Certified program, the difference in total value that you’re getting from a specific customer verse one that’s not tied into the program if there’s – looking at like a like-for-like customer, obviously.
Christophe Beck:
So it depends obviously where they’re starting from, if they just bought one solution the gap is way bigger and the opportunity is much bigger. In some cases with some of our long-term customers, while they’re buying everything from us everywhere around the world in that case, the opportunity is much smaller. But when I think about it, Ecolab Science Certified was a program, we did not plan to launch pre-pandemic that came as an outcome of the pandemic where we really recognized that our customers needed some help in order to make sure they could protect their guests. And at the same time guests coming into a hotel or in a restaurant, all looking for more reassurance and that’s going to be trouble for the quarters to come. So we’re measuring as well. So the number of locations that are certified by Ecolab Science Certified, it’s pretty large. Actually we’re not disclosing that number, but it’s by far the number one program in the U.S. Right now it’s generating incremental sales, which is pretty significant as well as at the same time and as you know we’re supporting that as well as a brand in the media, which gets always more recognized by consumers or guests as we call them in that industry. So all in all, this is really good to grow our market share in institutional.
John McNulty:
Got it. Thanks very much for the color.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, John.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of John Roberts with UBS. Please proceed with your question.
John Roberts:
Thank you. Does it matter that COVID, isn’t significantly transmitted on surfaces or it doesn’t matter because cleaning theater is more important.
Christophe Beck:
Infections can be transmitted journey in so many different ways. As we know, it can be the air. It can be what you eat. It can be what you touch. It can be what you drink, the hands that you shaking, obviously, so it’s true that COVID is mostly transferred through the air. But many other illnesses are transmitted so through surfaces or human contact as such. And when I think about infection prevention, well, short-term, we all think COVID-19, but mid to longer-term, we think about any infection that could happen out there and surfaces like human contact are a big vector, as we know. One example is that, in hospitals, the number one vector of infection is through hands as well, not for COVID, but for many other infections as well. So overall, making sure that you reduce the number of infection in a public setting done, well, you need to have surfaces of infected as you can.
John Roberts:
Okay. Good answer. And healthcare was 5% excluding one-time sales and 12% including, could you talk about that difference?
Christophe Beck:
The main difference – first of all, I’d like to say, so Healthcare used to have underlying sales of 3%, 4% before pre-pandemic getting towards these underlying so 5% plus is a good step up and you’ve seen the margins went up as well in a good way, which is all very encouraging for this business. Now, the difference between the 5% and the 12% is solely driven by significant in deals that we’ve made with some governments around the world during the pandemic to address, obviously, the infection risks in the UK, in Germany, in Australia, in New Zealand, in many countries around the world. This is COVID-19 related. So it’s stapling-off right now. So you start the compares as well against very high growth last year. And that business is going to be reduced. We knew that. And then we get back to the underlying growth of these 5%, as you think.
John Roberts:
Right. Thank you.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, John.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.
Vincent Andrews:
Thank you. Dan, can I just ask you about the working capital and how you’re thinking about free cash flow this year? Just noticing inventory was up about $100 million, $120 million in the quarter versus last year, even though sales were down, I think you mentioned in the prepared remarks that you’re building inventory ahead of the recovery, but just how should we expect working capital to trend overall? And then ultimately what that’s going to translate into free cash?
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Vincent. I’ll pass it to Dan to just in a second. You’ve mentioned it right. So on one hand, we’re very happy with the cash flow delivery in the first quarter. And on the working capital piece, it’s really, so for us, we want to make sure that we can produce enough product for the reopening. That’s happening in the various states and markets around the world. And that has an impact of busy on working capital. But with that, Dan, can you add some comments on that.
Dan Schmechel:
Thank you, Christophe. And that might be the answer to the core of your question. And so inventory, look, internally, we’ve been very clear that the mistake that we are not going to make is not going to have product – the right product in the right place to serve our customers as their path to reopening accelerates. Okay, so you’re right. We built significant inventory versus the same time last year also versus year end 2020. And my guess is that we will continue to, because we’ll have the right stuff where we end our customers both need it. If you think about the recovery of the business, generally, rebuilding the balance sheet means that there will be some pull on inventory, accounts receivable too, which are in very good shape from a payment perspective, but as people buy more stuff, we’ll have more on the balance sheet in accounts receivable. We’ll continue to manage our vendors and what we purchased with the appropriate discipline. But there’ll be an investment in working capital as the business rebuilds, which is the expected and completely appropriate. The net though of our cash flow delivery for the full year, even including the higher level of CapEx that we will continue to invest in the business in 2021, our cash flow will continue to be bigger. And also it will be, if you think about the metric that matters most to me in terms of conversion, it will continue to be in the mid-90% range, which I think is a very good number for the company and for the model. Okay.
Vincent Andrews:
Okay. Thank you. And maybe Christophe, any comments on where you are with sort of the bolt-on M&A pipeline.
Christophe Beck:
With the M&A pipeline, that’s always a difficult question. Obviously, we have a very rich pipeline. We’ve been working quite a bit during COVID. We’ve done less transaction for the obvious reasons. But we’ve done a lot of strategic work. We’ve built a lot of relationships. So with targets we have out there. So I feel good about the pipeline we have. I want to absolutely invest in places that are driving higher growth and higher margins and making sure that we can do that that valuation that are good for us and for shareholders. So I feel good it’s about to come.
Vincent Andrews:
Thanks very much.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Scott Schneeberger with Oppenheimer. Please proceed with your questions.
Scott Schneeberger:
Thanks very much. Good afternoon. And this with regard to the Texas freeze, it looks like that lost revenue came in a high decremental margin, if my numbers are correct. Could you please elaborate on just how that impacted? And now that we’re near the end of April, have you seen the full $0.15 impact? Or is this going to drag on through the fall on, through the second quarter, possibly third, just curious what type of lag there is occurring? Thanks.
Christophe Beck:
Yes, Scott. So the Texas freeze, we expected this $0.15, which seems to be the right number as we speak, $0.10 have impacted Q1, as we communicated and we expect the remaining $0.05 to impact Q2. We see things really moving behind us, it’s not the perfect science, as you can imagine. So what froze, what was closed, when it reopened? This is something that we can’t control as such, but what I like is that things already saw backing up operations. That’s true for our customers. It’s true for us and our suppliers as well. The only issue we had was backing mostly March and April, which was obviously across two quarters. But $0.15 is the total number, $0.10 in Q1, $0.05 in Q2. It’s happening as expected.
Scott Schneeberger:
Thanks, Christophe. And then peers of yours in the industrial segment, where if I backed that out the weather impact, very elevated margins. And just curious, what incremental upside do you see in the segment going forward? It looks very strong since the onset of the pandemic and shrinking? Thanks.
Christophe Beck:
You’re right that the knowledge in working industrials has been remarkable. Over the both few years, it was over 300 basis points in 2020, while it stays were slightly declining. As you know, so in Q1, Ex-Texas, that was also a double-digit operating increase, which was good as well. And going forward, I believe that’s a winning business. There will be times with raw materials and pricing where quarter-over-quarter things so might lag a little bit. But generally margins will continue to improve in industrial, especially, because the value that we provide to our customers is unmatched. As mentioned before most of the customers are coming to us, especially, so in our water business is to help them reach the ESG commitments that they’ve made for 2030 or 2050. Well, there’s no one else that can truly help them as we can. This is something that is driving growth and each driving margins as well for us, because they need better technology which is where we invest most in research as well. That’s where we had the highest margin. So it’s good growth driven by good natural feedback, which is driving as well, our margin. So the short answer to your question margins in industrial are going to keep improving.
Scott Schneeberger:
Right. Thanks very much.
Operator:
Our next question is coming from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies. Please proceed with your questions.
Laurence Alexander:
Good afternoon. Just following up on the margin discussion and the price versus loss, as you look at 2022, 2023, should margin speak for the entire firm, be hitting a new high.
Christophe Beck:
It’s a great question. So it’s hard for us to know exactly how it’s going to be in 2021. So knowing 2022 and 2023, so we’ll be even hotter. The way we drive pricing is really so driven by the value that we create for like estimates. In other words, how much savings we have them deliver on a year. They invest 10% in our services and they get all 20% or plus back as a return. This is the way we price. It’s basically – so sharing how much value we create so far like estimates. Obviously, when there are raw material increases like – we’ll be experiencing the next quarters and probably years to come. Well, we add that to the equation. We’ve been quite successful over the past few years in doing that. That’s been one of the reasons why margins have improved so well over the past few years, and especially as well last year. So I don’t know how roles are going to be in 2022 and 2023 that I know that our pricing is going to keep being into 1% to 2% plus range, depending on how the raw materials are market, but it’s never going to go down. So all-all it’s going to be up in price and it’s going to be driving margins up as well over the long-term.
Laurence Alexander:
And then are there any end markets where you have been surprised at the elasticity of demand and where you’re seeing a clear trade-off between pricing and organic growth?
Christophe Beck:
You mean in a negative manner?
Laurence Alexander:
Just – I mean, has anything changed in your framework over the course of the COVID related disruptions. Have you learned anything new about kind of the end market behavior where you’re like, okay, that was not expected?
Christophe Beck:
No, if anything, it’s more interest on one hand, it’s all driven by this increased trends of ESG have sustainability commitment. So what we do for customers becomes even more critical and customers are ready to invest more in order to get more return from a financial perspective, but also from a image perspective, because they’ve made commitments as well out there. But on the other hand, it’s also in times where performance – cost performance becomes more important. Think about some of the end markets are economically challenged, right now. Well, our solutions as you or handy for those customers because it has some improved the cost competiveness which is you can do the same work, the same outcome, a better outcome was much labor or creating less ways. So using that natural resources as well, so it’s a good sign that should sell. On both sides for customers in most segments, well, they need more of what we do in order to reduce the impact on the environment and why they do so they reduce that cost as well, which is even more important than difficult economic time. So in terms of the specific end markets in both cases. This is a good story for us.
Laurence Alexander:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Andrew Wittmann from Robert W. Baird. Please proceed with your questions.
Andrew Wittmann:
Great. Thanks for taking my questions. You’ve had a couple of questions on margins. I wanted to do another one. You had the one on the industrial segment. You had the consolidated margin question. But I had a, kind of a two-part question here on the healthcare segment, to start out with, obviously, here, you talked about some of the large governmental orders and other things that probably helped your fixed costs leverage in that segment over the past 12 months, I was just wondering as those comparisons are now stiffer and the business starts to normalize above historical levels, but it starts to normalize last year, at least if you think that some of the fixed cost leverage goes away, if that’s the appropriate way of thinking about that segment margins in the 12 months ahead. And then secondarily just maybe a little bit more detail on the institutional segment margins obviously the volume declines or significance, I don’t make sense what’s happened to the margin so far but on the way back up with the cost reductions programs that you’ve put in place, do you think that when the revenue level back – gets back to 2019 levels, is there any reason to think that the margins would be any different in that business than they were pre-COVID? Just recognizing that the customer base is probably going to be somewhat changed, maybe not your so much to the national accounts, but a lot of changes to hospitality and food service stuff, I want to get your thoughts on that. Sorry for the long question.
Christophe Beck:
No, that’s good. Thank you, Andy. Maybe starting with healthcare, very different dynamic of business, I mean, in institutional, so in healthcare, first of all, very pleased with the underlying growth performance. So moving towards these 5%, which was an objective for a long time, it’s taken us so many years to get there and COVID has helped because the infection prevention awareness of customers and patients in that days has gone up very clearly during COVID-19 which is good. So underlying growth solid in healthcare and that’s here to state. Second on margins, very good improvement last year, in some cases had partly with the one-off those government deeds that we talked about earlier, but I feel really good that margin is going to keep improving in 2021 and in the future as well. So this is here to stay. So good story in healthcare and for me, that’s not the end of the story. It’s really up to us to improve it further, that’s on healthcare. Institutional saw very different story, especially, so coming out of 2020, which is the business that’s being impacted the most in our company, the 90% plus of the COVID impact at Ecolab was on institutional division, as we all know, which is 20% of our overall company as such. So when I think about the margins, I would say two things, Andy, the first one is every quarter, it’s going to improve and we’re going to get a lot back from what we lost in 2020. And we’ll get close to where we were in 2019 pre-pandemic. So probably not that the end of this year, but early in 2022. And the second part of your question, so post pandemic, if I can call it that way, well, we’ve invested in our organizational development/restructure. We’ve invested as well in field technology, that’s going to help as well, the performance. So if anything, the margins of institutional over the mid-term that should improve versus what we have seen pre-pandemic.
Andrew Wittmann:
Thank you very much. Have a good day.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of Shlomo Rosenbaum with Stifel. Please proceed with your questions. Mr. Rosenbaum, your line is live. Please shoot your question.
Shlomo Rosenbaum:
Sorry. Christophe, maybe you could talk a little bit about the discussion used to be before the pandemic, a lot more about the investments that were being made in digital solutions. I know the company didn’t want to pull back on investments through the pandemic. Can you about what has happened over the last year, where there have been areas of adoption that have been accelerated because of the pandemic and where there might be areas of lag?
Christophe Beck:
Great question. Thank you. Shlomo. Digital has been an important party for us for many, many years. It started 30 years ago. Actually, what’s called differently, obviously, back then that was true when we did – so we moved monitoring of pool on falling institutional, and that was especially true. So we have 3D trays for industrial water business as well. And if I fast forward, ultimately, so for 2020 things that accelerated, because in many instances we could not go to estimate locations for obvious reasons, so related to COVID, so customers and our teams have embraced digital solutions even more than before. Keep in mind as well, that we invested over the past, high figures, over a $150 million a year in digital. So we were ready for that moment during the pandemic, that was more luck than genius, obviously as such, but it became very handy as well as such. So when I think about the three main drivers for us in digital, I think the first one is to drive customer value. So it’s subscriptions, it’s a regional prevention programs, for instance, as well. They all driven by digital technology. We said that technology, this is growing very nicely. The second one is our field solutions in order to improve the productivity and the value created by our 25,000 people around the world. Institutional, as rolled out everywhere around the world, then you platform during COVID and that’s going to help us as well. So if a post pandemic, that’s what I just answered as well before, which is one of the reasons why our performance in institution will improve. And the last pillar is the customer experienced e-commerce for instance, that has gaining – that has gained traction in 2020 also because of the remote nature of the customer relationship that we had in during the pandemic. So on all three fronts good progress in 2020. And when I looked at the progress we making in digital in 2021, our digital enabled say adopt roughly $1.5 billion and growing double digit as we speak. So a very good story, all in all.
Shlomo Rosenbaum:
Okay, great. If I could follow-up, is there any progress to note in when the new verticals was going to be kind of the data center area? Is there anything to a report on that over the last year or quarters?
Christophe Beck:
Well, it’s been a great story. Because we’ve all ended up working remotely on whatever is your system of preference, Webex, Teams, Zoom and so on, remote monitoring of applications as well or plans, it’s an industry that has been booming. As you can see, as well as, so from the numbers from the tech industry that we serve, really last year which was also pre-pandemic, we created global data centers as a dedicated business which came luckily enough. So very, Andy, so for the pandemic and since then, this business has been growing strong double digit operating income improvement, very strong as well. And interesting enough, so the customers that we serve, which all the tech companies the ones that are owning those data centers operations. At the same time, it have made big commitments in terms of water and carbon savings. Well, this is the work we do for them because that’s ultimately where they use the water or emit CO2 because of the energy that they need to use for the computers as such, which has brought them back to us, you’ve heard from Microsoft as well. They’ve shared it openly, publicly. So it’s not a secret that they’ve committed for the net zero water by 2030. And that’s the plan that we’ve developed with them. That’s all driving the growth in that new vertical, which is very promising.
Shlomo Rosenbaum:
Thank you so much.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan. Please proceed you’re your question.
Jeff Zekauskas:
Thanks very much. When you think about the restaurant and hotel business going forward, is the restaurant has future going to be different than the restaurant in the past and the hotel of the future, that is, there may be distancing rules. There may be other factors. Does the Ecolab institutional business go back to where it was in 2019 in a normal environment? Or does it go to a different place? Is it better? Is it worse?
Christophe Beck:
It’s a great question and a fundamental question. And it’s not going to go back to where it was in 2019. I think it’s going to be better. If I think about our end markets, it’s not going to be true for every one for the independence. It’s going to be – it’s been difficult obviously, if I can give it to restaurants during the pandemic financially, so to survive, those ones had more hardship than the chain customers, which is the vast majority of our business. So corporate accounts customers, as we call them more of change, other who have well survived, the ones with invested in the operations and the one who are expanding as well in terms of units. This is all we serve first and foremost. So that’s a good situation to be in for us. Then to do question on the restaurant or the hotel of the future, to exactly know how it’s going to be either hard to tell, but if few things we know. On the one hand, so the hygiene standards expected by the guests will be up versus 2019. It’s going to be a little bit lower than during the pandemic. Thank God. But it’s going to be a higher than 2019. That’s a pretty sure, and we all asking guests or consumers all the time in order to understand. So what’s happening in their mind and they clearly telling us that they expecting higher hygiene standard, more clean. They want to see clean inaction in order to feel safe, which is good. The second the labor shortage is going to become a bigger issue. It was an issue pre-pandemic. It’s going to be even more so going forward, as we read in the newspaper. Well, our solutions are helping them deliver more with less labor which is good as well as that. And the last thing, which is harder to grasp completely is how much the takeout, the delivery is going to grow. It’s going to keep growing for sure. And those on new opportunities for us, because those on your businesses as well, we haven’t figured it out completely, but I see that as upside. So net-net for our customers, the chain customers, it’s going to be different than 2019, but it’s going to be better for us as a the pandemic going forward.
Jeff Zekauskas:
Okay. Thank you for that. And what percentage of cost of goods sold are raw materials for you?
Christophe Beck:
It’s roughly 45%, but obviously, depends a lot by business, pest elimination is much lower as you can imagine. And in some industrial businesses, it might be higher, but in average, it’s 45% for the company.
Jeff Zekauskas:
Thank you so much.
Operator:
Our next question is coming from the line of Mike Harris with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.
Mike Harris:
Good afternoon, and thanks for taking my question. Just a quick follow-up for Christophe, earlier you mentioned that the first quarter results gave you confidence that you took the path, the 2019 earnings level. I was just curious, I mean, what happened in the quarter that was I guess a positive surprise to your internal expectations that kind of boosted your confidence?
Christophe Beck:
Well, thank you, Mike. The bigger question so far us for Q1 was to know when especially in the U.S., the states would reopen. And as you remember, so in Q4, the looked down, so when backwards in Q4 versus Q3, well, that was not exactly a great news. And still, we improved our performance in Q4 versus Q3. So the question was, how is it going to continue in Q1 and that we didn’t know. Obviously, so as we started our year 2021, so we were hoping that things would be improving and ultimately, they did. But they did not in January of February. They did in March. So we were thinking, so Q1 would be a difficult quarter as compared versus Q4. So modest improvement, ultimately, Ex-Texas, it was better done what we felt in Q1. So if I look at that, the reopening in the U.S. states is good news. Obviously, so for us going forward, China has been good since the beginning of the years. So those two markets are really on the positive side of the ledger. On the other hand, so you have a year up in some emerging markets like Brazil or India that are in a more difficult situation. So net-net, it’s basically as expected. And the last thing that I would say is, that because of the timing, if they’re reopening, so in Europe, that’s going to happen. So towards the end of Q2, some of the growth that we had expected in Q2 might shift in Q3, but all in all, so I feel that net-net, the trends are as expected. Our cost structure is as expected. The timing might be a little bit different than what we had in mind initially, but at the end of the year, so it ends up certainly full year delivery, that’s ahead of the EPS 2019 excluding this Texas impact.
Mike Harris:
Okay, thanks for that color.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Eric Petrie with Citi. Please proceed with your question.
Eric Petrie:
Good morning, Christophe. How much of your overall sales are to infection prevention and if you could to give a breakdown between institutional and healthcare?
Christophe Beck:
So it’s roughly 10% for the company with the goal sanitizing products, as such it had very good growth. Last year that was especially true in healthcare, which has the highest percentage as you would expect obviously, these infections is a bigger part of what we do in hospitals than what we do in hotels or restaurants as you can imagine. But in both end segments even grew doubledigit and we expect the growth that we delivered in 2021 overall to maintain the overall number that we got in 2021, which is a combination of more customers buying more of the sanitation products. But at the same time, it was a little bit lower consumption, so much higher than what we had pre-pandemic, close to what we had in 2020 and close to the 10% for the overall segments .
Eric Petrie:
Helpful. And then as a follow-on how much of your infection prevention chemistries or sanitizing products are based on chlorine, alcohol or peroxide. And have you seen any attrition to accelerated hydrogen peroxide?
Christophe Beck:
Yes. It’s one of the applications that we have. So we don’t disclose too much of usually the formula that we are using as such, if you think about the 15 seconds of COVID kill that belongs on the market as well. Last year, this is an absolute so you need differentiated obligation. No one kills COVID-19 in 15 seconds or less, that done by us. So that’s been very unique and pretended obviously, on the market, but what you mentioned. So with the accelerated hydrogen peroxide, that’s one of the solutions. We like it as well. We use it as well. But for us, we’re going beyond that as well.
Eric Petrie:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. At this time, we’ve reached the end of our question-and-answer session. Now hand the floor back to management for further remarks.
Christophe Beck:
Okay. Thank you. That wraps up our first quarter conference call. This conference call the associated discussion slides will be available for replay on our website. Thank you for your time and participation and best wishes for the rest of the day.
Operator:
Thank you. This concludes today’s conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day.
Operator:
Greetings, and welcome to the Ecolab Fourth Quarter 2020 Earnings Release Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mike Monahan, Senior Vice President, External Relations. Mr. Monahan, you may begin.
Mike Monahan:
Thank you. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Ecolab’s Fourth Quarter Conference Call. With me today are Christophe Beck, Ecolab’s CEO; and Dan Schmechel our CFO. A discussion of our results along with our earnings release and the slides referencing the quarter’s results are available on Ecolab’s website at ecolab.com/investor. Please take a moment to read the cautionary statements in these materials which state that this teleconference and the associated supplemental materials include estimates of future performance. These are forward-looking statements and actual results could differ materially from those projected. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are described under the risk factors section in our Form 10-Q for the period ended September 20, 2020, September 30, 2020, and in our posted materials. We also refer you to the supplemental diluted earnings per share information in the release. Starting with a brief overview, fourth quarter earnings continued to show sequential improvement despite the negative impact of a greater-than-expected second COVID wave. As earnings per share decline narrowed once again, as we leveraged our new business wins, increased customer penetration and digital technology, along with lower costs to show the sequentially better results. As before, roughly 80% of our aggregated business showed good sales and strong income growth. Our Institutional Division, which is roughly 20% of our current sales, remained the most impacted, reflecting the effects of COVID-driven restrictions on global restaurants and hotels. But we also note that Institutional is the business that could benefit the most over the coming years as long-term hygiene standards continue to rise. In 2020, we took a number of actions and made targeted investments for post-COVID success. We believe we emerged from 2020 better positioned as our business wins, new product development, digital platforms and our improved field sales force effectiveness should lead to a more effective and profitable Ecolab business. Looking ahead, we expect global efforts to reduce COVID spread, and the expanded rollout of vaccines will lead to further global economic improvement in 2021. We believe our strengthened business will deliver full-year 2021 earnings above 2019 results from continuing operations. For the first quarter, year-on-year percentage decline, showing modest sequential improvement from the fourth quarter, and the remaining quarters of 2021 showing strong year-on-year growth. In a world challenged by COVID, we saw the value of Ecolab’s premium product and service expertise was once again underscored through strong new business growth, as well as our strengthened existing customer relationships, despite the difficult market conditions. Our position as leader in food safety, clean water and healthy environments has become even more important. We believe that this position, along with our long-term growth opportunities, remains robust, driven by our huge remaining market opportunity, our leading global market position, our focus on providing our strong customer base with improved results while lowering their water, energy and other operating costs and our strong financial positions with resilient free cash flow. We believe these sustainable long-term business drivers will continue to lead superior long-term performance for Ecolab and our investors. And now here’s Christophe Beck with his comments.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you so much, Mike, and good afternoon, everyone. It’s a pleasure for me to lead my first quarterly conference call as CEO to share with you our results and our expectations for the future. It’s no understatement to say that these are exciting times to lead this great company when what we do and, most importantly, the way we do it, matters more than ever. Ecolab is an exceptional company based on solid foundations and strong values. I’ve had the chance to be part of shaping where we are today and where we’re going tomorrow, so do not expect any sharp turns, as I will keep building on what’s made us strong, resilient, predictable and successful. The challenges the world’s facing today are ultimately also long-term opportunities for Ecolab and I believe that the best is still yet to come. So I look forward to sharing with you our progress and ambition in this and in other forums. And on to our results. Our performance continued to improve in the fourth quarter, in spite of the short-term reversal of global market trends and like what we and most actually sold coming out of the third quarter Earnings Call. COVID cases went up, lockdowns expanded and restrictions got tighter in most places. For instance, right after our Q3 call, Germany moved from 40% of restaurants being closed to 100% and a third of the U.S. states tightened restrictions. Nonetheless, our adjusted EPS continued to improve and narrow its decline, decreasing 16% in Q4 versus the minus 24 in Q3. We could have easily delivered more in Q4, but we decided instead to keep increasing our growth investments in innovation, digital technology, health capabilities and backbone infrastructure in the quarter to be ready for the rebound and the opportunities post-COVID. Our consolidated sales trend has stable versus the third quarter which is a good indication as well that our investment strategy is working and importantly, our cash flow remains strong and fourth quarter free cash flow improved versus the prior year. Excluding the Institutional division, 80% of our aggregated business grew sales 2% and operating income increased a strong 17%. Healthcare Life Sciences posted 22% top-line growth and a very strong 65% operating income growth. And our largest segment, Industrial, delivered a robust 18% operating income growth with a modest sales decline of 3%. So while we will keep improving the performance of all our businesses, Institutional will remain our primary near-term focus and hereto, progress is being made. With temporary closures and un-promised [ph] traffic both got worse in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter in the U.S., our Institution bench strength remained unchanged and our margins continued to recover. In 2020, as COVID hit, I believe we responded really well to a unique situation in a global restaurant and hotel industry that’s historically been highly consistent and predictable. We protected our team and our business to make sure we were ready to capture the growth when the market reopens. We took great care of our key customers and enjoyed one of our strongest years of both retention and new business wins. We immediately provided all of our customers with world-class scientific expertise and comprehensive programs like the new no-rinse range of premium sanitizers. It’s a program that kills the COVID-19 virus in 15 seconds; we believe faster than anything else in the world. And we helped our customers protect their business while reassuring their guests with Ecolab Science Certified, a new program that has quickly established itself as a leading certification program in the U.S. We’ve also accelerated the work started a few years ago to continuously augment our critical field sales and service capabilities. We used 2020 to accelerate the implementation of our latest digital field technology. And we expect this technology to further improve our field service effectiveness, customer experience and operational performance. At the same time, we finalized the fine-tuning of our field safe organization started 18 months ago, so pre-COVID. And we expect this to further increase sales firepower and drive units and penetration share gains as we’ve mentioned over the past few calls. With all of this, I believe Institutional is well positioned to benefit from the markets reopening and from the rise of global hygiene standards. Now more broadly, we entered 2021 in a position of real strength. While we expect COVID-19 will continue to have a significant effect on the economy and our end markets, especially in the early part of the year, we expect to see the beginning of the COVID-19 recovery for our global markets to start in the second quarter. It will then take a few quarters to fully realize the new normal. However, we believe that our strong new business wins, product and service innovation, investment in new hygiene and digital technologies, and successful sales and profit initiatives will deliver full year 2021 earnings above 2019 results from continuing operations. We expect the first quarter to show a modest improvement in year-on-year percentage decline versus the fourth quarter, while the remaining quarters of 2021 will show very strong year on year. In other words, 2021 should be a strong rebound for Ecolab. With hygiene standards that are rising fast, we’re ready to respond to these new trends with breakthrough solutions and a brand that inspires trust. With water and climate challenges that have just gotten tougher, we’re uniquely positioned to help our customers reach the sustainability ambition at a high financial return. And with an unbeatable global team supported by state-of-the-art digital technology, we look into the future with a great deal of confidence. I look forward to your questions. Mike, the floor is back to you.
Mike Monahan:
Thanks, Christophe. That concludes our formal remarks. Operator, would you please begin the question-and-answer period?
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And our first question will be coming from the line of Tim Mulrooney with William Blair. Please proceed with your questions.
Tim Mulrooney:
I really only have one question, one thing that I want to talk about, which is this. You mentioned improvements in your Field Services organization implemented over the last 18 months. I think that’s part of your Institutional advancement program. And I’m not asking you to give away any competitive secrets here, but can you talk about what those improvements were? Specifically, I think you mentioned improving sales firepower, which should drive both new unit sales and market share gains. Thank you.
Christophe Beck:
Would love to. Thank you, Tim. Great question. So as you mentioned and as mentioned in my intro as well, those are developments that we had started a few years ago. And we’ve made those developments as well by working together with our field teams and our technology partners as well. We’ve tested that as well at numerous occasions, really making sure that everything is working really well because it’s so important for our team. And we were really aiming at two objectives that we’ve accelerated during the past few quarters because we had a unique opportunity during COVID to get it done faster. We could train our people as well during times that they had as well available. And the two things are first, it’s really to help the service delivery. What does that mean for our teams? It’s ultimately that these digital tools are helping them get their daily program that’s being optimized by the system. If they get an emergency call as well that’s coming within the daily program, well, it’s rerouted and making sure they can do that with the minimum time and the minimum mileage as well to get there. They get all the customer information in real time when they go and visit as well the customer. They get tools as well to sell better any new solution, and they have training tools as well that they can share with the customers in order to make sure that those programs are being used really the best way. So this first objective is really about improving the customer experience. It’s improving the work performance of our teams, and ultimately for them having more time to spend with the customer. The second objective, and I’ll conclude on that, is really on the sales side of our team. It’s to help them sell more. We’ve shared many times our ambition to increase penetration. Well, those systems are helping do that because they give you real-time customer information. Our teams know how the customer is performing, the products they’re using, the new products that we could be adding as well to them, and again merchandise as well the results that have been accomplished. So at the end of the day, it’s easier for our team. It’s better for the customer, and it costs less as a whole as well for the company.
Tim Mulrooney:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Manav Patnaik with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.
Manav Patnaik:
Thank you. I had a question on around breakout areas, seeing how Life Sciences has become a very nice growth area for you guys. I think at your last Investor Day you talked about several new ones, and I was just wondering if you could give us some color there and if anything else has popped up either during the past year clearly.
Christophe Beck:
Hey. Thank you, Manav. Well, expanding our TAM has also been a part of the Ecolab strategy. So finding new growth avenues, new growth markets, and lining up resources behind them has been part of the way the company has been growing. You’re mentioning Life Science. We started this business a few years ago. It’s turning to an exceptional performance. It’s been obviously helped by COVID as well at the same time because the need of our former customers has grown so much it’s driven as well great innovation as well. So for them in order to make sure that they could produce vaccines, for instance, in the safest and most profitable way at the same time. But interestingly enough, that way of approaching things, Manav, has helped us as well opening new markets like data centers. We’ve started that two years ago when we saw that companies were ultimately outsourcing all their IT to larger companies like Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and so on, and weren’t dealing with them providing them with some solutions because those computers generate a lot of energy and need to be cooled down while we were providing solutions for them as many other customers. And ultimately we said, well, that’s a critical market for the future. It’s going to keep growing. We’re going to create the division as well behind it, which is exactly what we did. That was before COVID. Then COVID happened. Everyone used the cloud, and it’s a market that’s been booming as well since then. So it’s been a good play. And the last one I’ll mention, Manav, here is Animal Health where we knew as well that antibiotics is something that consumers, that you and I don’t want to have in our food ultimately, so how do we help animals staying healthy in the food chain at the very beginning, and that’s how we’ve created as well as division. We’ve made a big acquisition as well early last year with CID Lines which is creating that critical mass with that new market opportunity and which is leading to double-digit growth since we’ve done that as well. So just a few examples like that.
Manav Patnaik:
Got it. That’s helpful. And I was hoping you could just help us with the cadence of costs and maybe margins for the first part of the year at least with respect to the rising cost of your raw materials, please.
Christophe Beck:
Manav, just to make sure that I understand that you mean 2021 here, or 2020?
Manav Patnaik:
Well, 2021, just with the recent increase in all the raws, and how should we think about how that flows through your numbers?
Christophe Beck:
Yeah, so margins have been improving so over time in our businesses, so for a very long time. That was the case as well. So in 2020 since the low in Q2, obviously we see that continuing in the quarters to come in 2021, keeping really in mind that we see the year 2021 in two parts. There will be the first quarter, which will be very similar to what we’ve experienced in Q4, and then there will be the reopening of the end markets in Q2 and then the clear ramp ups in Q3 and Q4. So, it’s kind of slightly better in Q2 and as of – in Q1 sorry – and as of Q2, you will see a rebound as well there. We have good pricing power which is good. We have raw materials that are expected to be benign right now, but the indications that we see in the last few days/weeks ultimately saw going up in terms of raw materials. So we’ll have to mitigate that. But this is something that we’ve been doing very well for many situations similar that we’ve experienced in the past few years.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of John Roberts with UBS. Please proceed with your question.
John Roberts:
Thanks, and congrats on ranking near the top of the Barron’s sustainability list last weekend.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, John.
John Roberts:
A few vacation locations have actually seen pretty solid hotel occupancy and restaurant traffic; not a lot but some have. And do you have any data to show in those specific areas that the overall cleaning product revenue per room or revenue per diner has structurally increased since the pre-pandemic levels?
Christophe Beck:
Yeah, I don’t have detailed numbers to share with you, but it’s very clear that in the spaces where it’s reopened, the one you mentioned, for instance, we’ve helped those customers with more solutions in order to prevent the risk of infection. That leads to better sales than what we had before. But to your point as well, so those are individual areas like vacation groups that you described. Unfortunately, so those are just selective ones, but those are good indications at the moment that the overall market is going to reopen. That’s – hopefully or that’s the way we expect it so in the second quarter, it will compound, obviously, so our growth opportunities in those units that we either used to have or didn’t have yet but will have more solutions as well to them.
John Roberts:
Gotcha.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your questions.
David Begleiter:
Thank you. Christophe, Industrial had a very strong quarter and full year. So looking at Industrial in 2021, can that segment expand margins? And how much of a headwind will these discretionary costs be as they come back into the numbers in 2021?
Christophe Beck:
Yeah, so Industrial will keep developing its margins. It’s been the case, as you’ve noted, in 2020. In 2021, we’re expecting as well pricing to remain kind of at the similar level than what we’ve seen. The raw materials are going to be probably a bigger headwind than what we had in 2020. So net-net, margins will be similar but operating income will keep growing.
David Begleiter:
Very good. And, Dan, just on the cash flow, any thoughts or comments on working capital and CapEx in 2021?
Christophe Beck:
Dan, you want to answer this one?
Dan Schmechel:
Sure. Thank you. Well, maybe to ground us and the very strong performance that we had in 2020, first of all, working capital was a net contributor to strong cash flow because although we saw a little deterioration in collections and an increase in inventory on hand from a day’s perspective, the very favorable to cash flow at least impact of declining volumes made working capital a net contributor. So 2021 will be somewhat the opposite of that, meaning as the business continues to rebound, we’ll invest more in receivables and in inventory. So not significantly but we’ll invest in working capital in 2021. Having said that, we’ll remain very focused on collections. And I’ve said before in earlier calls we are very determined and have been sure to be paid for the value that we’re creating for customers. And frankly, on the inventory side, just a personal comment, almost, my expectation – and I know Christophe shares this sort of vibrantly – is that our goal on inventory in 2021 is to make sure that we’re building the right stuff for the right customers in expectation of the rebound. And so the favorable inventory in 2020 will reverse in 2021, but it won’t be a big drag on overall cash flow performance.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of Gary Bisbee with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.
Gary Bisbee:
Hey, guys. Good afternoon. I guess the first question just going back to the Institutional initiatives here, can you provide a little more detail? Because what I’m really trying to get at is how much of it is about rightsizing costs versus other changes that would promote growth? Certainly the – your prepared remarks talk about spend to deliver this and cost savings after the fact, so part of it clearly is cost driven. But what you discussed earlier was much more I think on the growth, positioning for growth end of it. Just a little more color. Thank you.
Christophe Beck:
Yeah, thank you, Gary. It’s not cost-driven. What we’re doing in Institutional is part of what we’ve been doing for years. It’s driven by two things. As I mentioned earlier, the first one is really so to increase our sales firepower, we always want to have more dedicated people towards selling new customers, selling new solutions to existing customers. We’ve shared earlier as well our ambitions to increase penetration by 20% as well over time. While we need to increase as well our sales firepower, which means people and hours behind that in order to deliver it. Technology is obviously helping as well so for that. On the other side, on the service, it’s to improve the customer experience. That when one of our service rep is going to one of the customers while she or he doesn’t spend a lot of time collecting data or getting papers together, she or he can really get in and has all the information and can really work immediately with the customer or the customer issues that they might have as well. And as mentioned before, so if their day is organized better, if we can really route them in a way that minimizes hours and mileage, at the end of the day they can service more customers, spending more time with the customer instead of internal initiative stuff or fixing equipment that we have. And if that works, well, it’s good for the customers and it’s good for us. In other words, we have more sales firepower, we have improved operational efficiency in service, which nets to an improvement of cost structure as well at the same time.
Gary Bisbee:
Okay. That’s helpful. And then the follow up, can you help us think or discuss how you’re sort of thinking through volumes you’ve earned in areas that have benefited from the pandemic? So whether that’s sanitizers or disinfectant s or other, how those could persist versus maybe moderate at some point in the future? And I guess as part of it, are you signing new long-term contracts for these things with a volume expectation? Or is there the risk that a lot of the incremental revenue could go away at some point in the future when the pandemic is in the rearview mirror? Thank you.
Christophe Beck:
Yes. Long term, we always have contracts with the vast if not all of our customers around the world. That’s part of our business model and it will remain as such as well going forward. And we have plans of usually so to increase as well the demand with all of them. That’s why we invest as well so behind all those customers. So, to Mike’s point before, 80% of our aggregated business has been growing in 2020. Well, those businesses will keep growing as well in 2021. When you think about it, 80% have been growing, so 5% top line in 2020 and 14% operating income. Well, they’re going to keep growing as well so in 2021. The mix is going to be a little bit different as mentioned, so in Life Sciences the demand was higher for natural reasons. In health care, we got those national government deals as well. But underneath you still have this 5%, 6% growth which is good. Industrial is going to move towards positive growth as well. And sanitizing products, they’re going to stay at the fairly high rate of growth. It’s not going to be the same as in 2020 because I don’t expect people so to sanitize their hands the same way as they did during COVID. That would be too nice. But it’s going to be more than what they did before COVID’s peak in 2019. So overall, I think that the trends are going to be similar or better for most of those products.
Gary Bisbee:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Rosemary Morbelli with G Research. Please proceed with your question.
Rosemary Morbelli:
Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone.
Christophe Beck:
Good afternoon, Rosemary.
Rosemary Morbelli:
So just going back to the demand, the high demand in Life Sciences and health care, do you have the feeling that there may be some inventory build in some of the channels and actually you could see a decline in revenues for full-year 2021?
Christophe Beck:
I don’t think so, Rosemary. So Life Sciences is kind of a direct business, so there is no in-between distribution, and it’s mostly bulk product, as well, that you can’t really store as such. So inventory is quite much so just in time in Life Science, and it’s been growing strong in 2020. It’s been growing strong before that as well, and we’re planning for great growth as well in 2021. So Life Science is going to be the continuation of a great story. But we need to keep in mind as well that, well, they had an exceptional year in 2020, so the comparisons that we will make in 2021 will look a little bit softer. That’s why it’s going to be important to look at the underlying growth, which is the way we run the business anyway. And it’s even more true for health care because the growth of 20% plus that we had in the last quarter was partly driven as well by those national deals that we’ve made. So for some of the governments, in order to fight COVID, underlying it’s going to be 5%, 6%. That’s the way we measure it. So when you do the comparison, Rosemary, 2021 versus 2020, it will look like a much lower growth, but it’s just because the comparison is kind of unfair. But we will look at the underlying growth, which is ultimately what’s going to be long-term, and we expect it to be within the range of 5%, 6% for health care.
Rosemary Morbelli:
Okay. Thanks. That’s helpful. And then, Christophe, if we look at 2021, you expect that your results will approach those of 2019. So do you expect this to be the case for all segments? And both for revenues and operating income?
Christophe Beck:
So the 80% that we’ve talked about with health care, Life Science, Industrial, well, they’re going to be ahead of 2019 because they’ve been ahead in 2020 versus 2019 and they’re going to be ahead of 2020 in 2021. They’re going to keep improving, obviously. Whereas Institutional is the one that needs to grow from a much lower level started in Q2 2020. You’ve seen it’s in Q3 an improvement, Q4 not so much. Q1 is going to be the same, and Q2 is going to continue afterwards. But at the same time, we need to keep in mind as well that we have investment in the business that we’re going to make in 2021, as we did in 2020, and I’m going to keep increasing those investments as well. The mix is going to be unfavorable, so in 2021 versus 2019, just because Institutional is going to be lower because it’s going to be recovering towards the end of the year. And the last point is that we have some cost rebuild. People are going to start traveling and entertaining again. We’ll have merit as well, so coming in there, so it’s going to be a different story in most businesses. But ultimately, we feel confident that 2021 can deliver earnings that are adjusted ahead of 2019.
Operator:
Our next question is coming from the line of Chris Parkinson with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your questions.
Chris Parkinson:
Great. Thank you. Despite a fairly choppy 4Q, 1Q, which I think is overwhelmingly expected, there were some delights that you highlighted across your supplemental. When speaking to your teams, can you speak to maybe two or three end markets for which you’re now incrementally more confident or constructive, just given pent-up demand once the world truly opens back up? If you can hit on that and just any potential comments on preliminary share gains would be greatly appreciated. Thank you.
Christophe Beck:
So just to make sure, Chris, that I understood the question right. So the end markets that we would estimate would be rebounding so during 2021?
Chris Parkinson:
Yes. And any comments around market share. Thank you very much.
Christophe Beck:
Okay. So the biggest one is obviously so Institutional, so restaurants and hotels. And the way we measure performance in this down-market today is how many units do we have compared to the low point in Q2, and how many solutions do we sell to existing units as well. It’s really so to make sure that we improve our base the moment it reopens that we can accelerate. And in institutional, we have more opportunities, much more than we had in the second quarter last year. We have much more solutions as well. So the moment the demand is coming back, that’s going to compound, which is really good news. And we expect that not to happen in the first quarter, but it’s going to happen sometime in the second quarter. Another one is downstream, which is related so to the oil and gas demand. When cars are going to be used more, when planes are going to be flying more, when boats are going to be more traveling as well, like cruise ships obviously. So the demand for oil and gas is going to accelerate. So our objective here is the same as what we did in institutional; more refineries and more solutions to those refineries, and that looks quite good as we speak right now. So those are two big ones that are expecting so to rebound in the second quarter. All the other businesses, major businesses, Chris, are ultimately on a good path, no matter what.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your questions.
Vincent Andrews:
Thank you. And good afternoon, everyone. I wanted just to follow up on the new business wins, maybe in particular in Institutional, but you could touch on the other segments as well. So I guess what I’m wondering is that there was a clear opportunity as COVID hit to go get new business, and I’m just wondering if there’s sort of a second phase of new business opportunities that it’ll be unique to COVID, but it’ll come more during the reopening as maybe customers come to a realization that they want to change providers or trade up or what have you. How do you see that playing out?
Christophe Beck:
That’s a great question. Well, starting first with the net new business in 2020 has been quite ahead of 2019, which, honestly, personally, I didn’t expect that we would be that good. But we’ve managed so in 2020 to sell more new business than we sold in 2019. And to your point in Institutional, that’s been the best new business generation that we’ve had across the company. So Institutional has done an exceptional job in terms of new business for two reasons. Namely one is obviously for the focus of our team on new business during that time. But the second is the one that you touched just before that during those difficult times of COVID, customers were looking for expertise, for scientific expertise. They didn’t know what COVID was to begin with; how to address that issue; how to get ready for the reopening; how to get ready for the future as well. And we are the unique company that could provide that support to them in the U.S. like anywhere as well around the world. So many came to us as well so during that time. And the last point I’ll mention is also our capability to supply as well. So especially in sanitizing products, growth has been outstripping the supply so quite a bit. We’ve built a lot of capacity as well so during that time, while this is capacity that customers have been asking and that we’ve been able as well to sell to them. So good new business in all businesses, actually, for the whole company; and I mean especially in Institutional. And I think that that’s going to be even more true in 2021 because we’ve demonstrated to our customers that we’re here for them when they truly need us.
Vincent Andrews:
Okay. And, Dan, if I could ask you a quick question on the balance sheet. Just seeing that the post-retirement health care pension benefits was up, it looks like $140 million year over year. Is that a function of discount rate assumptions? Or return on plan assets? Or what happened there?
Dan Schmechel:
Yeah, really, the year-on-year change is discount-rate driven. Okay. Likewise, to this other income line that you see down below operating income. So rates have such a big impact both on the liability and on the accrued expense. Okay.
Operator:
Thank you. Your next question is from the line of John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
John McNulty:
Yeah, thanks for taking my question. So the push on the ESG front, especially from Industrial customers and players out there, seems bigger than I think most of us would have thought a few years ago. And I guess with that in mind, like when you think about the water platform that you have and especially on the Industrial side, can you speak to the level of engagements that you’re having? And is it higher than what you would have thought say a couple years ago when you guys gave the longer-term outlook for the business of 6% to 8%? Like I guess have we reached a tipping point where we may see multiple years where that business accelerates at a level that is maybe faster than what we’ve seen or what you may have expected? How should we be thinking about that?
Christophe Beck:
It’s definitely bigger than what we thought, and honestly, I thought that during COVID that would really take a back seat. And none of that happened, thankfully, actually so for the world in general and especially so for our business as well. We’ve had always more customers coming to us for two reasons interestingly enough. On one hand saying well, can you help us get towards our ambition in terms of ESG in terms of water usage, in terms of climate, so CO2 emissions, waste that we generate as well? And there was a second dimension which was an interesting new one for us. Many customers coming to us and saying, well, you guys as a company have done so well from an ESG perspective. Is there something we can learn from you that we could implement as well so within our own company? And I can give you two examples in near on one hand, the larger consumer goods company out of Europe with whom we’ve been working for a few years, towards the end of last year said we need you to help us build a plan to become water positive by 2030. Well, those are new questions which we know how to answer that. No one else can. And on the other hand, so you’ve seen Microsoft as well announcing their ambition to be water positive by 2030. We’ve done that plan. So together with them, we are helping them getting there as well. So those are examples that are true of many of those companies so coming to us. So, yes, there’s an inflection point that’s turning bigger, better than what I would have thought.
John McNulty:
Got it. Thanks very much for the color.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Justin Hauke with Robert W. Baird. Please proceed with your questions.
Justin Hauke:
Hi. Thank you. So I just wanted to ask some questions on the restructuring program, just because it’s changed a couple of times and it’s somewhat difficult to track where you are. Relative to the $355 million in total spend that you’re talking about now through 2023, what’s been spent under those programs as of the end of 2020? And then similarly for the benefits, the $365 million of annual savings that you’re looking for in 2024, what’s the current run rate that’s in the 2020 base just so we can kind of think about how that builds?
Christophe Beck:
I think I’ll let you, Dan, maybe start the answer and I’ll help if anything.
Dan Schmechel:
Sure. Of course. So just to make sure that we’re talking the same numbers here, I think that we’ve disclosed an actual cost associated with the $365 million of anticipated savings of $335 million, of which at the end of 2020, $275 million has been accrued. Okay. So very good start across all of these programs. And from a run rate perspective as of the end of 2020, we’ve recognized about $200 million of total savings. So expect significant pickup in 2021 as you might guess. And then it will kind of more or less stabilize or bleed out over 2022 to 2024.
Justin Hauke:
Thanks. That’s helpful. And then my second one was just to make sure that we’re all level set. When you talk about 2021 adjusted earnings being in excess of the comparable 2019 level, I think you’ve disclosed a pro forma number that excludes Champion that was 520. So is that the number that we should baseline your comments on?
Dan Schmechel:
The number that we would steer you toward is the continuing ops number, which is 512 in 2019.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of P.J. Juvekar with Citigroup. Please proceed with your question.
P.J. Juvekar:
Yes. Hi. Good afternoon, Christophe, and welcome.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, P.J.
P.J. Juvekar:
Yes. In your Institutional advancement program, where you’re investing in field reps and digital technology. Is that all for gaining share? Are your customers demanding this? And then how do you charge for it? Is it all through market share gains? And also, lastly there, where do you think is your competition in regards to this? Thank you.
Christophe Beck:
Great question. Thank you, P.J. Obviously, when we think about share, this is self-serving. This is not the way we think about it. It’s much more what’s right for the customer. And if there is one thing that we’ve learned during COVID, especially in Institutional is that customers need comprehensive solutions. When you think about an infection risk, while it’s not just about sanitizing your hands; it is making sure that the tables are being sanitized, the floors, the drains, the water, that the food is safe, that you don’t have any pests in there. It’s really – infection is related to the weakest point that you would have in that unit. And seen from the customer side is basically who is the partner that can help me protect everything I have in my unit? And the only one that can do that today, at least is Ecolab as such. So that’s the way the customer is looking at us. So it’s really making sure that we offer programs that answer that, and the Ecolab Science Certified as well is ultimately bringing it all together. If a unit has all the programs, it is as safe as it can be. Well, they get to seal and we promote that as well. So it’s good for the customer. It’s higher demand for us, so it’s good for us as well at the same time. So the whole organizational development that we’re making is ultimately helping to address that customer need.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mike Harrison with Seaport Global Securities. Please proceed with your questions.
Mike Harrison:
Hi. Good afternoon.
Christophe Beck:
Good afternoon, Mike.
Mike Harrison:
Wanted to ask about your competitor, Diversey. They recently entered into a partnership with a water treatment provider to really go after the food and beverage market a little more aggressively. Do you think that could lead to some changes in the competitive dynamics that you’re seeing in Food & Beverage or in Water going forward?
Christophe Beck:
Well, two things here, Mike. First, we know that water and hygiene together is a winning proposition. We demonstrated that for years. But we know that partnerships do not work. It’s the second time that they are trying that. By the way, the first time was with Nalco many years ago and it didn’t work. So it’s hard enough within a company to get all the businesses working together towards one customer need. Doing that with partnerships is really hard. This is interesting to see. Theoretically, it’s a good idea. In practice, well, I wish them luck.
Mike Harrison:
All right. Thanks. And then on the downstream portion of the business, obviously, that’s under some pressure because of driving activity. But I wanted to ask the trend in refineries is toward larger and more complex, integrated refineries that have petrochemical production as well. Can you talk about the relative opportunity for Ecolab at one of these larger, more complex refineries versus, say, a handful of less complex refineries that have equal capacity?
Christophe Beck:
The petrochemical sites are different the sweet spot of our business in downstream. That’s where we sell most of the solutions. That’s where there is most demand from customers. That’s where the margins are the highest and where the outcome is the best as well. And many of those companies to the ESG point that was made before as well are interested in driving as well a better outcome from an impact on the environment as well at the same time. So this is the sweet spot. This is our primary focus as well going forward. We’re trying to get organized as well behind petrochemical in a dedicated way but that’s a little bit soft; more for the future as such. Whereas the traditional, older type of refineries are less of a priority for us. So you’re exactly right and that’s what we’re going after and that’s the way we’re getting organized to really capture that growth and the margin. And I’ll just conclude on one point. It’s basically that petrochemical in 2020 has been growing as well in a difficult environment, which is a proof of that approach working so really well.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Adam Harrington with Stifel. Please proceed with your question.
Adam Harrington:
Hi. This is Adam [ph] on for Shlomo Rosenbaum. I was curious if you could talk a little bit about what contributed to the margin level in the Health Care business this quarter and kind of what the interplay was between delivered product cost, mix, et cetera.
Christophe Beck:
So health care in 2020 in general has had very nice margin development. You’ve seen as well the comparison versus 2019. So a nice improvement. It was better in Q3 versus Q4 because the volume was higher because those one-time deals with governments were still impacting the business fairly heavily. So you got much more leverage as such. But that being said, the drive of program selling in health care, the focus on infection prevention, the digital technology, the pricing, the work on margin improvements, well, it has contributed to the margin improvement in 2020 and is going to stick as an improvement as well in 2021. So I feel good about the margin development in health care when I think 2021 and beyond.
Adam Harrington:
Okay. And in terms of the earnings for 2021 versus the 2019 level, I think you touched on this in an earlier question. Can you maybe just give a little more detail of what needs to happen there and how much of that improvement – expected improvement will be explicitly from like cost savings?
Christophe Beck:
So in order to get there, which we feel very confident to deliver an EPS in 2021 that’s ahead of the $5.12 in 2019, as Dan mentioned, it’s basically driven by three or four things. The first one is 80% of our business, so Industrial, health care, Life Science, growing, growing operating income in 2020 is going to keep doing that obviously in 2021. So those ones need to keep moving, and they will. They have good momentum. They have good new business, and they have propositions that customers are asking for, which is really good. At the same time, you need to have Institutional that turns the corner. As mentioned, it’s not going to be in Q1. It’s going to be very similar than what we had in Q4, but it’s going to be sometime in Q2. That’s going to catch up as well. So Q2, Q3, Q4, where Institutional is going to get back towards where it used to be as well, so pre-COVID. So that’s going to drive as well towards that outcome. And the third point, as you mentioned, so we have cost savings initiatives that Dan has been presenting as well that are helping. But it’s important to keep in mind that we will keep investing in the business. People are going to start traveling as well more. We’re going to give them merit as well as we do every year as well as such. So when you bring it all together, 80% of the business needs to keep humming, and it is and it will. Institutional needs to recover as of Q2 and the quarters to come, and we need to make sure that both on the cost savings and investment we balance that in a smart way and we will get to the right place in 2021.
Operator:
Thank you. At this time, we’ve reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I’ll hand the floor back to Mr. Mike Monahan for closing comments.
Mike Monahan:
Thank you. That wraps up our fourth quarter conference call. This conference call and the associated discussion and slides will be available for replay on our website. Thank you for your time and participation today, and our best wishes for the rest of the day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today’s teleconference. You may now disconnect your lines at this time. Have a wonderful day.
Operator:
Greetings, and welcome to Ecolab Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Release Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mike Monahan. Thank you, Mr. Monahan, you may now begin.
Mike Monahan:
Thank you. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Ecolab’s third quarter conference call. With me today is Doug Baker, Ecolab’s Chairman and CEO; Christophe Beck, our President and Chief Operating Officer; and Dan Schmechel, our Chief Financial Officer. A discussion of our results, along with our earnings release and the slides referencing the quarter’s results and our outlook are available on Ecolab’s website at ecolab.com/investor. Please take a moment to read the cautionary statements in these materials which states that this teleconference and the associated supplemental materials include estimates of future performance. These are forward-looking statements, and actual results could differ materially from those projected. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are described under the Risk Factors section in our September 25, 2020 Form 8-K and in our posted materials. We also refer you to the supplemental diluted earnings per share information in the release. Starting with a brief overview. Third quarter results showed significant improvement from the second quarter, while still reflecting the divergent impacts from COVID-19 on the business segments. Fixed currency sales and earnings per share declines narrowed as we leveraged recovering customer end-markets with new business wins, increased customer penetration and cost efficiency actions to show the sequentially better results. Sales and income for our Healthcare and Life Sciences segment were strong as it continued to benefit from good underlying trends, strong cleaning and sanitizing demand and several large one-time sanitizer orders. Our Industrial segment saw a modest sales decline as end market activity returns toward more normal levels, while income growth continued to be strong due to pricing and lower costs. Institutional division results also improved from the second quarter as consumer activity within restaurants, hotels and entertainment facilities continued to recover, though foot traffic at them continues to run below last year due to COVID-related restrictions that yielded the lower Institutional results. We expect our improvement to continue in the fourth quarter, though likely at a slower rate as the second COVID-19 wave impacts reopenings. We remain confident we will emerge from 2020 with the stronger competitive advantages and a more robust product offering. We continue to invest in the key drivers for our business. Our accelerated investments in hand care and sanitizer capacity are paying off, and our continued digital investments and accelerated field technology deployment are enabling us to provide excellent customer support, even where we cannot be there in person, while also enabling better value delivery and further efficiency in our cost to serve. We remain firmly focused on maximizing our post-COVID position. While COVID-19 creates a near-term challenge, it also creates long-term opportunities. In a world challenged by COVID, our food safety, clean water and healthy environments positioning has become even more important. We believe that our long-term growth opportunities remain robust, driven by our huge remaining market opportunity, our leading global market positions, our focus on providing our strong customer base with improved results by lowering their water, energy and other operating costs and our strong financial position with resilient free cash flow. We believe looking beyond the near-term uncertainty and focusing on these sustainable long-term business drivers will yield superior long-term performance for Ecolab and our investors. And now, here’s Doug Baker with some comments.
Doug Baker:
Thanks, Mike, and good day everybody. So our sales and earnings showed significant improvement in Q3 versus the lows we saw in Q2, which was expected. This is led principally by our Institutional division as its markets reopened, albeit partially. Our Healthcare Life Science businesses continued to accelerate with our third quarter sales up 29% and our Industrial businesses performed solidly as well with negative 3% sales but 18% OI growth. Importantly, we expect the overall improvement to continue in Q4, though at a slower pace, as COVID second wave is expected to dampen re-openings. Even so, we have a number of initiatives underway as the opportunities and challenges presented by COVID are much clearer now. We have a heavy upfront investment in hand care and sanitizer production, which is now coming on line and starting to pay off. Our launch of new antimicrobial with best-in-class 30-second COVID-19 kill claims are well timed, it’s just going out now. Our continued investments in digital and our accelerated rollout of our newest shield technology is paving the way for further efficiencies in our cost to serve, which we’re capitalizing on now through targeted cost savings programs. Finally, our new business efforts continue to drive really good results, particularly in Institutional. Our ability to dramatically outperform our competition in terms of customer care during the COVID period is being rewarded with new business across the board. And, our new Ecolab Science Certified Program is helping drive improved penetration in existing customers. You’ll recall, our objective for this year was to maximize our position for post-COVID success, and we are well on our way to do that. As a result, we feel we’ll be in very good position leaving the year. As we look forward, we expect COVID to run into 2021 fairly deeply, meaning through several quarters, but we also expect our business to continue and strengthen as our capacity, innovation, new market entries, Ecolab Science Certified and digital efforts put us in a great position to manage and grow our business. So, I feel really good about the steps our team has taken, how they’ve managed through this period and most importantly, how they position is for success in 2021. Thank you.
Mike Monahan:
Thanks, Doug. That concludes our formal remarks. Operator, please begin the question-and-answer period.
Operator:
Thank you. We’ll now be conducting a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] And our first question is from Tim Mulrooney with William Blair.
Tim Mulrooney:
Hi, Doug. I know there’s a lot of uncertainty right now and a lot of moving parts between your different segments. But, I think, a key question for me, and what’s on a lot of investors minds this morning is, based on what you know today, when you expect to get back to 2019 EPS or better?
Doug Baker:
Yes. Well, thank you, Tim. I’d say, we’re not giving specific forecast. But, I’ll say this. Even with COVID second wave and I think we’ve -- we understand where COVID is going. We track this very carefully. We all know recent news reports about what’s happening in Europe, what’s happening in U.S. is not really news to us per se, that we’ve considered this in thinking about our business progression, even we talk about further improvement in Q4 and how we’re considering 2021. That doesn’t mean it couldn’t be worse than we anticipate, or could be better than we anticipate. But, I don’t believe we are underestimating COVID. With that said, I think, we are in good shape to be playing above 2019 EPS in 2021. The question is really how much? We’ve got a number of things that give us confidence. The markets we believe are going to be better on average, in ‘21, than they were in ‘20, principally, because we don’t expect a repeat of a global shutdown during the March-April period. That alone drives on average, a significant improvement in just underlying market performance. Inventory reduction is really behind us. This machine rent relief isn’t going to be repeated, a lot of the one-offs that we had talked about that we took purposefully in Q2. And we know we’ve gained share. We’ve got very strong innovation. And we’ve added capacity on hand care where honestly we could sell more if we could make more, and now we’re able to make more. And ultimately, we know we’re also taking steps to lower our costs. So, we feel we’re well-positioned. Next year, we’ve got a number of levers to pull. So, I expect sitting here today that we will be certainly above 2019 EPS in 2021.
Tim Mulrooney:
Okay. That’s really helpful. I appreciate your thoughts there. I’d also like to ask about your new business wins and how that trended through the quarter relative to your expectations. Are these wins coming from developing growth opportunities, or is it more just from recovering end markets? I know you’ve got a lot going on with new sanitizers and Science Certified for example. So, I was curious how that’s all affecting the cadence of your new wins?
Doug Baker:
Yes. I’ll ask Christophe to go address this. But, we’ve been, I would say, very surprised at the strength we were worried early in COVID, with the fact that we couldn’t make in-person calls in the same manner that we did prior, impact our ability to get customers, yes, and that’s turned out to be a false worry. We’ve actually performed very well to this whole period. And I’ll give Christophe an opportunity to give you some color.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Doug, and Tim, good morning or good afternoon. So, yes, new business has been going very well this year. When we think year-over-year growth of new business that we track, so on a monthly basis, it’s basically growing at the same pace as this used to be, as well as pre-COVID, which is very encouraging. Doug is right as well. So, installing that new business has become a bigger challenge, which means that our full book of business ultimately will help us as well down the road. But, we’ve leveraged as well digital technology. So, to do that in unbelievable ways where we could install new customers all remotely, so we’ve learned as well. And those are capabilities that we can use as well tomorrow. And your question on the main drivers, I’d like to come back as well, to what we discussed during the previous calls as well, where many customers are coming to us because they’re looking for our expertise from a science perspective as well, how to deal with COVID, how to make sure that their guests or customers can be protected as well. That’s been a huge driver, so for many new customers to come to us. It’s also innovation. Doug mentioned our new sanitizing programs that we have that are killings of COVID-19 in 30 seconds or less. Those are world records out there. And that’s coming out of years of innovation as well. And last but not least, in more difficult economic times, our customers like our proposition of driving the total cost of operations down, which drives more business as well. So, net-net, new business generation is kind of steady even versus what we had pre-COVID.
Doug Baker:
And I’ll just add, because Christophe said he’ll be humble today, is from an operating standpoint, our businesses have done a great job, performing in a tough environment, and honestly have dramatically outperformed competition in our ability to meet our customer needs when it’s required in unit we get there, we’ve worked to leverage remote digital capabilities. And this has really been led by Christophe and all of our teams out in the field. And that has made a big difference here as well.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Manav Patnaik with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.
Manav Patnaik:
Thank you. Good afternoon. My first question is just around this increased focus on sanitization that clearly you guys are benefiting from. Maybe a two-parter. The first one is, you talked about you to now do more capacity in hand care. But, I was just curious if there was any updates on any other areas or maybe you still are restrained in terms of how much you can produce? And, I think for the first time ever I saw an Ecolab ad on TV for certified science. I guess, is that trying to target a little bit more branding versus the Cloroxes and Lysols of the world?
Doug Baker:
Yes. I’ll touch on the capacity question. Our capacity challenges really have been around hand care in particular, to a lesser extent to some surface sanitizers. It’s all driven by demand. Meaning, our hand sanitizer business is up 300 -- 3x. Now, we’ve had to do a lot of work to be able to increase capacity, 3x. And now, we are expanding that beyond that, because demand is greater than that. But, these aren’t easy, easy ramp-ups as you go through this. Right? This is GMP, you’ve got to make this properly. We don’t take shortcuts. We’re not the guys using bad ingredients, people can count on us. And so, we’re going to do this the right way, so customers continue to count on us going forward. But, the operations team has done really a terrific job working with the team to move these volumes up. And we have a lot of capacity, now just coming on line, because it takes months, or as equipment, we found very creative ways to do this. Regarding the TV, Ecolab Science Certified, let me give that to Christophe.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Doug. And, Hi Manav. Good to hear you. Ecolab Science Certified, so, it’s something kind of new for us. So, we’re learning as well, as we go. It was really meant to support our customers to provide reassurance for their consumers, their guests, for the most part, so in hotels and in restaurants. And it’s been really driven by the fact that we knew that guests were fearful about the risk of infection. We all know that. We knew as well at the same time that hospital grade disinfectants were driving them to 2 to 1 times versus the retail brands that you mentioned, as well before. So, that was a plus clearly, as well so for us. And the third thing was really that we knew we heard from guests that they wanted to see clean, not just to have people telling them, that it’s safe out there. All that brought together this fear of being infected, the fact that you like hospital grade disinfectants, the fact that you want to see that is clean and safe, so led us to this concept of Ecolab Science Certified that has been extremely well welcomed by our customers. Their customers seem to be liking it a lot as well. So, great reaction from customers. We’re really working now in the rollout of all those thousands of sites as well, so around the country. And from a media perspective, it’s just after a few weeks, so hard to tell. But early indications are way above average than what we had expected.
Manav Patnaik:
Okay. Got it. And it was nice to hear the comments on 2021 EPS. But, maybe just on fourth quarter trends, I guess, in terms of the way you described it, it sounds like fourth quarter won’t -- even if there is a resurgence of cases et cetera, it won’t be as bad as the June quarter but maybe somewhere between that and the September quarter that you just reported, and so just maybe partial lockdowns and impacts. Would you say that’s a fair characterization?
Doug Baker:
Yes. I think, Q4 is, -- one, you’re entering Q4 at a very different run rate from a market consumption standpoint than we entered -- right, Q3. And so, as a consequence, you’ve got room -- I mean, to get to even equal, right, you can add some degradation to the quarter, just fundamentally. We expected -- I mean, some of these lockdowns are just being announced. But we knew that COVID second wave was real coming. And there’s going to have to be some reactions to this. And so, as a consequence, it’s in our mindset. Now, it could get more severe than we anticipate and everything else. But, we expect Q4 to be better than Q3 on the top line on income, on EPS on an absolute basis and on a relative basis versus prior year. I mean, that’s so -- and I think it’s with our eyes wide open, but this is a wild world. And we’re here to react to what we need to react to and we’ll do the smart things. One term, this business I think is in great shape. And we’re going to manage intelligently. The one thing I’m not going to do is touch the investments in Q4 and do some other things, because really what is paving the way for our very positive feelings about 2021 and beyond.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of John Roberts with UBS.
John Roberts:
Thank you. Your institutional organic sales were down 28% year-over-year. What’s your estimate of what the market was down, maybe to give us some perspective on the share gain?
Doug Baker:
Yes. It’s not as easy as just doing the straight math, simply because if the market is down 50%, we’re not going to be down 50%. There’s just some base level of consumption in these units if they’re just open. So, the numbers that we have shared in the deck and others is over 90% of restaurants in the U.S. were open by the end of third quarter, running at a roughly 55% capacity rate. Now, in addition to that, they’re doing a bunch of off-premise. But obviously, off-premise doesn’t generate much warewashing business, as you might imagine, if you’ve been an off-premise customer. So, I would say, we certainly -- our volumes are healthier than the restaurants volumes in total. We do believe we’re gaining share, because we track very carefully what we’re gaining and what we’re losing. And I would say, our losses have been minimal. And I mean, we’ve done a great job on the other side, securing a bunch of new business through this period.
John Roberts:
Then water downstream sales were down 11%, petrochemical was up, so refining was down more than 11%. They’re not that surprising or not, but I thought the utilities, the steam system and the cooling tower were relatively insensitive to the refinery operating rate, or is that not the case?
Doug Baker:
I’ll give it to Christophe. Our water businesses improved. You’re talking downstream and you’re right. Downstream was worse in Q3 than Q2. Christophe, do you want to…?
Christophe Beck:
That’s right. Yes. Overall picture, so Industrial is in a very solid shape, as you see, so up modestly and the OI is up double-digit. As you’ve noticed, driven by a few great businesses, obviously like water being one of them, food and beverage really good, water improving very nicely. On downstream, you underlined petrochem, which is positive, this is really true. Otherwise, so for the fuel refining business, we’re kind of in line with the consumption, which was down 12%, roughly, in the quarter. But, when the oil price is low, refiners have a tendency to go for light crude, which means that they need much less of our additives as well, which are usually used for harder to treat, as well, product. So generally, we like the petrochemical, which is where we focus most of our attention, especially going forward.
Operator:
Our next question comes from David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.
David Begleiter:
Thank you. Doug, you guys increased your savings this quarter to $275 million, from I think $270 million. Where those additional savings are coming from? And if COVID impacts go well into ‘21, are you looking at additional temporary or internal costs levers to pull to offset these headwinds?
Doug Baker:
Yes. I’ll have Dan answer specific questions around numbers. But, yes, I would say a couple of things. What we wanted to do is, allow time so that we can see more clearly where we are going to be hit, say for several quarters at least or even a couple of years, like we talked about lodging recovery and some other things. And we are starting to adjust our costs in businesses that are going to have more lingering effects. You might think also, we are investing in some businesses like Healthcare and Life Sciences, where we expect the lingering impacts to be positive. And so, we have increased a 2020, which was the program that we had in underway, which is really a place where it supports early moves there. They were not a big impact at all in Q3, will start impacting Q4 somewhat, but the major impacts will be in Q1 and Q2 of next year. And, Dan, if you want to add some detail?
Dan Schmechel:
Yes. Thanks. So, just as you’ve indicated, rightly, we’ve announced that we’ve taken up the full year target from 270 to 335. And of this incremental 65, as Doug has indicated, that anticipate that the big bulk of that, say, maybe $50 million will fall into 2021, with a little bit recognized in 2020, not much, frankly, given the fact that we’re, you can imagine, starting where we’re starting now, near the end of October, and a little bit of cleanup in 2022. In terms of what drives it, I mean, I would go back to sort of how we’re thinking about a 2020, or this cost savings initiative generally, which is some of this is reorganization. A lot of it frankly is driven by getting back benefit from the significant investments that we’ve made in institutional. And as Doug has indicated, we’re really similarly sitting here in the era of COVID, taking a look at our deployment principally, and where we might see continuing benefit. And so, of the 50, it’s pretty evenly spread frankly across the Industrial business, opportunities and supply chain too where we can true-up and have an opportunity to think of improving efficiency of some of the lines and some also in the institutional business, not surprisingly.
David Begleiter:
And Doug, just looking longer term, given the impact of COVID on Institutional, is the Institutional a fast growing business post-COVID than it was pre-COVID?
Doug Baker:
Yes. I think, there’s going to be -- I mean, Institutional was obviously ground zero for COVID. And there’s going to be some knock-on effects for a period of time, but not forever, by any means. I would say -- I think, if you read most lodging forecasts, people believe that business, travel will be down for several years, but will start coming back. It will be replaced in fairly short order. But I think lodging takes a couple years to recover. I think, restaurants recover a lot quicker. And the reason for that is if you look at the history of recessions and everything else, even in restaurants that go out of business, there seems to be an endless line of people who think opening a restaurant is a great idea. And that has been true. And you end up with a lot of, let me just say, capital light opportunities, after these recessions. You have strip malls with restaurants in them that are vacant, where they are looking for somebody to move in and put a sign on the door and get back into business. And it’s sort of a time honored tradition. So, so far, I would say we’ve been surprised at the fact that there’s not more restaurants out of business during this period. We expect that there will be more, particularly as we get into the winter, but it’s still probably below the forecast that we had internally, last March and April. So, Institutional, ultimately, we feel very confident will be a -- and continue to be a great business. Now, we can get to earnings, right, growth, faster than we’ll probably get to sales record growth, simply because we’re doing right in the business, some of this has planned pre-COVID, a lot of the technology moves we’re doing, the efficiency moves, we’ve accelerated the deployment. I mentioned this in my opening comments of the newest and latest field technology, which gives us a lot of new capabilities and makes our field team a lot more efficient, and use a much more time to sell. We are adjusting our field service team to what we expect to be service requirements going forward and efficiency benefits. But, we’re actually adding sales firepower, because we know coming through this and out of this, we want to go out and secure the new business that’s going to occur. There are other forecasts, let’s say, in 2021 midsized chains and others will be adding a significant higher number of units than they’ve done in recent years, as they work to capitalize on this too. And we want to be the guys there getting this business. We never mind taking, if you will, SG&A risks like this. We think they’re wise, we think they’re going to pay off and help us recover even faster. And if we’re wrong, they’re not hard to address.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of to the line of Gary Bisbee with Bank of America.
Gary Bisbee:
I guess, if I go could back to the cost program for a second, good to hear about the incremental and where that’s coming from and the timing. But, can you just give us an update on where you are versus the initial plan? As I recall, it was a significant number and growing number from ‘19 to ‘20 and then into ‘21. Are you on pace, did you pull them forward given the challenges of this year, or is there still an expectation that there’s a significant step up from the original plan next year, before this $50 million incremental that you’re adding here? Thank you.
Dan Schmechel:
So, this is Dan again. Let me -- I’ll just walk through the sequence here. We announced the plan, right, which was originally 200 and took it up to 325, so we accelerated it. Of that 325, $55 million was focused directly on the upstream business. And so, those cost savings and all of incurred expense associated went with the ChampionX business. So, that’s how we net down to the $270 million. And frankly, we’ve described this $270 million as $200 million in run rate savings for Ecolab and then offsetting $70 million of what were essentially stranded costs related to the separation of the ChampionX business. So, that’s the background on the $270 million. If you focus on the $270 million, I would say that our capture of that opportunity has been almost exactly in pace with what we had said. Okay? And so, now, we’re saying that we’re going to increase it by 65, for all of the reasons that I went through with the biggest part of that benefiting and falling into 2021.
Gary Bisbee:
Got it. So, there’s -- I mean, I have the 325 breakdown, which you provided a few years ago, and so I understand part of that went away, but it was like $80 million in ‘19, $105 million in ‘20 and $140 million in ‘21 was the initial target. So, assuming a lot that went away is in ‘21 maybe but, so there’s a significant step up still from the original plan. And then, you’re adding on top of that?
Dan Schmechel:
I would say, yes. Okay. From the 200 to the 270, that was the step up. Really though I would think about that as an offset to the ChampionX stranded costs. What we disclosed as incrementally benefiting 2020 originally was $110 million. And it will be essentially that number with a little bit of increase related to the $65 million increase. So, I view this as being once we expanded the plan for the first time, if you net down to the 270, which is ex, ChampionX piece, we have been pretty much in line with the targets year by year as we’ve communicated.
Doug Baker:
I’ll only add this. What we said very early in this and we were asked are we going to make cost adjustments, even back as early as February. We basically said, look, we’re in the fog of war. We don’t know what moves to make right now. We need this fog to clear and really have more understanding of where the opportunities are and where the challenges are going to be, what’s going to linger and what’s going to go away quickly. And as a consequence, we are sitting here today with much more clarity around what needs to happen moving forward. So, we’re much more confident taking steps that we don’t believe are going to cause any unintended harm than other moves. The team, I think, is in a great place. Everybody understands. And since we’re adding in some businesses and subtracting in others, even where we’re reducing our team, we have opportunities to create for them another businesses, which we’re making available sort of differently than we’ve done in the past. So, these are moves we’re taking. So in Institutional, we’re certainly taking steps, which I mentioned, around field service costs in particular, given number of units, and the efficiencies that we have generated as a consequence of the technology investments and all the digital investments that we’ve been talking about over time, you would expect us to do those. And now, we have a better understanding of delay of the land. And so, we’re taking those steps. And if anything, I would expect us to take more -- this is not internal, that’s all been discussed. But, as we start getting clarity around the financials, what that means and what it means for 2021.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Ryan Connors with Boenning & Scattergood.
Ryan Connors:
I wanted to ask a question about -- you talked about the fog of war, Doug. One of the things that seems to be emerging from that is that the big chains are out there taking share, if you will, or faring better than some of the mom and pops restaurants, as an example, but I guess, that’s in a number of different industries. That would seem to favor a company like Ecolab that presumably is heavy with some of those big national accounts. Can you talk about that dynamic, and whether you think that’s meaningful? And how that affects you, if that does in fact continue the next couple of few years?
Doug Baker:
Yes. I mean, it could only be a net positive for us. How it exactly plays out in terms of their ability to continue to garner share vis-à-vis smaller players. We watch the same trend. I believe they will gain share during the upcoming periods, probably even more notably during recovery. They’re poised to add units aggressively and would be in a position to do it even faster, and in some cases, in say, smaller and mid-sized players. So, I would say, we’re not -- it’s hard for us to say exactly what this means to us. But, I would say, to make a case, it’s a negative would be hard to make. It’s net positive, for sure.
Ryan Connors:
Got it. Okay. And then, my other one was, at risk of going across the valley as it were, you talked about investments in capacity, in hand care and sanitizers and the 3x demand growth and so forth. Obviously, you’re not the only one making those capacity investments. And if, in fact, things normalize post-vaccine, even if that’s a year or two, or whatever out there, how do you guard against really as a company and as an industry, adding too much capacity, and then we’ve got a negative pricing cycle in those product lines once this all kind of -- the dust settles here?
Doug Baker:
Yes. I would say, there is two things. One, here is our expectation in the hand care market. We think in the near term, it probably -- and this includes hand soap, which is obviously a much larger market than hand sanitizer in total, that the combined market triples and then settles as a double, versus pre-COVID, i.e. there’s certainly a COVID bubble here, but the post-COVID will be at a run rate much higher than the pre-COVID, simply because you condition people through this around hand hygiene, which by the way is a smart thing to do to prevent many other viruses than just COVID-19. So, with that, yes, are people going out? Yes. We’re not the only guy adding capacity. But I would say, prior to this, we were also doing a lot of co-packing. So, we are now in a place where we have additional capacity. If it proves not to be as wise, we can in-source stuff if we need to. So, I think, we’ve got a number of options here. And we wanted to create more options, if you would, going forward. In terms of price war, it’s not going to work that well here. Even hand care, dispensers fall off walls, things happen. We have been priced at a premium. In almost every one of our markets, we’re the -- if not the global leader, right, number two in the world in terms of hand care. And we do it at a significant premium, because service does matter even in this market. So, I don’t think that’s going to be the play or the conversation we’re going to be having in two years.
Operator:
Our next comes from the line of Chris Parkinson of Credit Suisse.
Chris Parkinson:
So, you hit on this a little bit, but I just want to get down a little bit further. But just, despite a lot of noise on the Institutional revenues right now, how should we be thinking about the current market share gain environment? It still seems despite a lot of noise, like you’re outperforming a lot of your peers. And then also, just when we think about the growth and innovation investments, how do those ultimately factor into your expectations for your framework for ‘21 and ‘22? Just any additional color would be greatly appreciated. Thank you.
Doug Baker:
Yes. I’ll just put together what we’ve already said on the call in maybe a different context. One, we have confidence that the business is going to be playing above 2019 in total next year, right, from an earnings standpoint. We don’t believe Institutional is going to be fully back, while we’re doing that, which we’ve also said. Institutional will ultimately have record sales and record earnings. We have not seen the peak of Institutional by any stretch because that market will come back. We think foodservice first, lodging a little later. The good news is foodservice is much larger, and there are underlying trends in foodservice which are positive. We are gaining share, which means, I think, we’ll even beat the market getting back. So, I guess, the point is, I think, when you look out beyond the depth of COVID, you’ve got a number of positive earning machines within this business. [Technical Difficulty] of institutional over the couple of years, [Technical Difficulty] fast to recover in industrial than some of the other players; technology, lowering our cost to serve on a permanent basis, et cetera. So, I -- we feel like the steps that -- steps we’ve done the last six months, I think, has long legs. That was a whole idea. You don’t want to go do a bunch of stuff in the second quarter that would only help the third quarter. We wanted our stuff to have years of benefit, not weeks of benefit. And I think, that’s why I’m proud of the team. You can get very flustered during these periods because these results are hard to report. It’s not what we normally do. But, I think, the steps will prove to be very wise going forward. I don’t think, we’re very far away from getting back to the type of reports people expect out of us.
Chris Parkinson:
Great. That’s very helpful. And just very quickly on the Industrial front. There’s been a fairly material divergence between end markets. Just versus your initial expectations, let’s say, coming out of the second quarter, could you just assess your performance in F&B, water and downstream? And then, similar to my questions on Institutional, how would you also view your own relative end-market performance on a go-forward basis? Thank you.
Doug Baker:
Yes, I’ll give this -- Christophe’s got this.
Christophe Beck:
Hey Chris. Hi. Maybe starting with your Industrial question, and then I’ll cover Institutional. So, as mentioned, overall, Industrial is in a very solid shape, saw slightly off at sales, but income up 18%. And that’s the advantage we have that we have so many different end markets as well that we serve, but all driven by these needs of water purity and hygiene, food safety as well, which are obviously some big trends right now. So, when we think in terms of the water businesses, the way we call them, so this one has improved very nicely. So from a minus 5 to a minus 2 in Q3, and we expect that to improve as well in the quarters to come. F&B, which has been a very strong franchise, pre-COVID, has remained fairly strong positive for sure during COVID as well. Q3 being a little bit of an unusual quarter of those two reasons. One is the total shutdown of brewing in Latin America. You’re not allowed to produce beer basically over there, and we have business over there, extremely strong, extremely profitable as well. But, that’s going to come back. People are not going to stop drinking beer obviously. And dairy as well in the U.S., which is related to schools as such, but this is very temporary. New business is really strong in F&B, good momentum, great relationship with customers. There’s no one even close to us who can really bring the water and hygiene, as mentioned before. So, a very strong position on Industrial. And in Institutional, a lot has been said, obviously before, firmly believe that people are going to go back ultimately to what we call out-of-home. As such, people are not going to start cooking from scratch in the long term. So, these trends are going to be positive. At the same time, people are going to look for more demonstrated safety in restaurants and in hotels. This is well to our advantage. They’re going to look as well for more expertise. This is Ecolab’s strength as well. They will want to have global standards as well that you have in every unit anywhere around the country or the world. Well, this is what we offer to customers. And last but not least, as well as such, well, it’s mostly driven by corporate accounts, as Ryan was asking before, two-third of our business are large customers. Well, that’s where the growth is going to come from and that’s where we have most of our focus. So, Institution long-term is going to be a positive story as well. So, I hope you have it, Chris.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets.
John McNulty:
So, looking at the other segment, and it seems like it’s mostly going to be driven by pest. The profitability surged pretty dramatically compared to kind of the revenues where book they were up, but not nearly to this degree. Was there a bit of a catch up in there, or I guess, can you help to explain kind of the incremental margins from 2Q to 3Q in that business and help us to think about how to think about that business going forward?
Doug Baker:
I would say within their pest -- our pest business, I would say recovered even stronger than we had thought it was during the third quarter. It was down 2% year-on-year in the third quarter. And they made up a lot of ground. They have done a number of smart things in that business and are poised to break through the growth number, even in the fourth quarter. So, of those businesses, it’s probably the most significant in terms of its ability to earn money. And most of them -- that’s probably the biggest positive story coming out of the other segment.
John McNulty:
And then, maybe just a housekeeping question, just because admittedly, I’ve gotten probably a dozen e-mails on this since you’ve been talking. But, so when you talk about EPS growth in 2021 versus 2019, I assume that’s on the 5.12 base, the kind of pro forma, the oilfield services split base. Is that right? Am I thinking about that right?
Doug Baker:
Yes. That would be our new -- that would be the 19 number we would compare to.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.
Vincent Andrews:
Just thinking about trying to bridge institutional a bit more, and I’m looking at that slide four you provided in the supplemental data, and in particular, just trying to think about the multiplier effect of a product use in COVID. And, what percentage of operating rates in full-service restaurants do we need to get back to in order to kind of make you whole with 2019? Because presumably, you don’t have to get back to 100% or 90% or something like that just given more product being used and likewise for lodging. So, any thoughts there would be helpful.
Doug Baker:
Well, we don’t have a specific number to throw out. It would be less than 100. I think, the truth of the matter is, there’s going to be this natural, I would say, recovery ceiling, until you have vaccine. Now, what we believe is, vaccines will be approved here in short order, but they’re first going to go to frontline workers, second to populations at greatest risk, and then broader populations beyond that. And you need a significant number of the population. Again, it’s going to take quarters to get this out. The reason I bring this up is I really think we will continue to see improvement in institutional, some on the top and then on the bottom line as we go through this. I don’t know that you’re going to be breaking through 90% than others, until you get real breakthrough on COVID, to be honest. We’ve launched in other markets. There is just a fundamental fear factor that stops people from going in the environment, even when there is a low COVID rate. Now, it improves -- it’s got clearly room from this 55% number. But, I don’t think it buzz through 80 until you start seeing COVID done. With that said, we don’t expect Institutional to be fully back in ‘21 but we expect to be certainly playing north of ‘19 EPS in ‘21.
Vincent Andrews:
Thanks. And just as a follow-up. Just thinking about the SG&A line into next year, you’re down about $165 million year-to-date. And I’m just trying to reconcile, you have some discretionary cost savings that maybe some of that starts to come back later next year versus the cost program that you’re running to take things out. So especially, as we think about SG&A trending into the fourth quarter and then how much do you think it can actually stay down next year?
Doug Baker:
Yes. I think, the discretionary savings, i.e. T&E in particular and some others, I think last well in the next year. Our view -- we’re going to respond to what actually happens on COVID, not what we believe. We believe COVID is here through a good part of 2021. If that proves to be wrong and it goes away faster than that, we’ll benefit, and vice versa. But our travel isn’t going to change dramatically until COVID restrictions change. And so, there’s a sort of what I will call natural benefit lined up with sales pressure. So, we think for the majority -- certainly majority next year, we’re going to see depressed T&E travel as a consequence. We will not bring it back up to 100% of 2019 rates for a long period of time, because I think we’ve all learned. There probably are a number of trips we took in the past that we didn’t need to take. And we will be using digital technology in many cases that prior we took trips to accomplish. So, travel is not going down to zero, but it’s not going back to 100% or 90% either.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Scott Schneeberger with Oppenheimer. Please proceed with your questions.
Scott Schneeberger:
Thanks. Good afternoon. With regard to Healthcare and in Life Sciences, the growth rate certainly is impressive. How sustainable do you think that is? And then, the margin in the segment was very strong. Just curious, how much was pricing and other factors for the margin expansion, and maybe some discussion of sustainability of that?
Doug Baker:
I’ll give it to Christophe?
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Doug. Hi, Scott. So, it’s been another great quarter for this group. So, 29% top-line growth, 82% income, and it’s been driven by both, big businesses in there. So, Healthcare and Life Science, both were in the double digital top-line growth and income growth as well, driven from one part, because of COVID, on the other hand, as well, a lot of government business as well, that we could conclude as well in Germany, in the UK, in Australia because of the expertise that we could provide as well as to those agencies with whom we have great relationships. That’s going to partly stay in the future, but it’s going to ease as well over time, whenever coverage is going to ease as well. So, that’s back to Doug’s comment of the vaccine and how many quarters we’ll have to wait for that. Bottom-line, when we think in terms of underlying growth, we’ve said, so for Healthcare that if you exclude those big one-timers, it’s roughly 12% top-line, but that’s still driven by the COVID wave as well. So, when that eases as well, we believe that we will be in Healthcare, kind of 6% to 8% underlying growth, which is really where we always want it to be. So, ultimately, that’s a business that has truly benefited from what’s happening here. And on Life Science, it’s a business that’s totally on fire. It’s really an industry that loves what we do. So, then, new business is extremely strong. Innovation is very strong as well, think Bioquell as well, so has grown 100% during the quarter as well in Q3. Well, those are offerings that are going to stay as well going forward. So, it’s not going to stay at the same high level as what you’ve seen in Q3, but it’s going to be double-digit underlying, going forward, for sure.
Scott Schneeberger:
Thanks, I appreciate that, Christophe. And then, a follow-up for to you Doug. Just curious, now that you’ve built out capacity significantly for hand sanitizing, just curious, kind of on the back end of the supply chain, what were the considerations you made, so that if we get into a situation where this largely sit down -- shut down, hopefully that doesn’t happen again. But, has this been done largely domestically, near shored? Just curious the thought process and the strategies you’ve taken in developing that supply chain strategy?
Doug Baker:
Yes. Our historic supply chain strategy is to make in the currencies we sell in. I.e., if you go to China, we have multiple manufacturing facilities. They’re really designed to meet China demand. And like 93% of our China volume is produced in China. So, that’s been historic strategy. And it’s a strategy that governs us going forward. It was really designed because we didn’t want currency to become a strategic problem, i.e. producing the U.S. dollar gets strong and our competitiveness is weakened everywhere else. That was the initial reason for it. It obviously is also proven to be a good strategy in a tariff world, and a more restricted supply world. So, that strategy has been, let’s say, cemented, at this point time is a good idea. So, where we’re building? We’re building a lot of the capacity in the U.S. and in Europe, which are two largest markets where you’d expect but we also made capacity moves in China too.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jeffries.
Laurence Alexander:
Two quick questions on the cost reductions moves that you’re now making. How will that affect operating leverage once conditions recover? And secondly, longer term question, I guess, I remember most of our discussions on the Healthcare side being around antimicrobials. Can you speak a little bit about your [Technical Difficulty]
Doug Baker:
Sorry. Laurence, the last couple of words got garbled. What was the last question about Healthcare antimicrobial?
Laurence Alexander:
Sorry. Can you speak about your capabilities in antifungals -- the antimicrobials?
Doug Baker:
Yes. Well, in Healthcare, I mean, if you want to go, I mean, spores are the biggest challenge, right, C. diff and the others. And we have significant advantages in that category in Healthcare as well. And so, that’s been an area that I would say, we have some standout capabilities too. The Healthcare capabilities are important, not just, because of the healthcare market opportunity, but also because of, if you will, what we learn in Healthcare, and how we can apply it in other businesses. So, Christophe talked about the positioning that we’re using in Ecolab Science Certified, which is Healthcare grade -- hospital grade disinfectants that resonates with consumers, or by the way, they’re right. Because the breadth of the kill claims and the kill time are much more advanced in those types of products than they are in consumer products. You can have a consumer product that literally takes 4 minutes to kill what we’re killing in 30 seconds. And the problem is not many people wait 4 minutes for anything anymore. So, this is an important part of what we’re doing. The leverage question, I mean, we don’t have a specific answer. I mean, as we get out and articulate the complete program, it’ll be pretty obvious what the leverage impact will be. But certainly, it’s going to improve leverage, which I know you already know.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Mike Harrison with Seaport Global.
Mike Harrison:
Doug, you mentioned this reduction in on-premise dining, a lot of your restaurant customers are shifting toward more takeout and delivery, some are coming up with these novel ideas like those kitchens or cleaning meal kits to help make ends meet or survive in this challenging time. What kind of changes are you making in your approach to help your customers navigate this trend toward less on-premise dining? And, how do we think about kind of the future of your business? What we used to think of is warewashing being kind of the anchor or the cornerstone of your institutional business. Is that going to be shifting towards hard surface cleaners, going forward?
Doug Baker:
I’d say two things. I mean, there are certainly new business categories in institutional that we are pushing and exploring that frankly we think will have staying power, no matter which way the industry goes. With that said, I would say, we think post-COVID the industry reverts back to principally on-premise for two reasons. It’s what diners want mostly; and two, the profit of takeout, given packaging and other is not great. If you’re in a pizza business, it’s hard not to make money on pizza, because the ingredient costs are so low, and all you got is a cardboard box. But when you’re getting into, let me just say, some of these fancier meals and the packaging costs and the rest, I have a number of friends who are actually in the restaurant business, it is not a perfect solution for them. They’re trying to keep the doors open, cash flow moving and everything else. But, their preference greatly would be to be serving these meals on-premise versus off. We have supported those kitchens. They’ve been longstanding in a number of ways, think about food trucks and the rest. They are going to have a place going forward. And it’s probably the way to run just a delivery business. But, there will be modifications in this industry as a consequence of COVID, but I don’t think it’s a revolution.
Mike Harrison:
And then, in terms of the food retail side, you mentioned expanding cleaning protocols and frequency. Can you give us a sense of how much that’s increasing sales right now? Like, is the typical grocery store customer for example using 10% or 20% more of your product or is it double how much they would typically be using?
Doug Baker:
Well, I think, it’s settling down where it’s double digit up in consumption. I will also say, you’ve seen slowly a number of retailers curtail some of the cleaning that they were doing early, it’s still up versus where they were pre-COVID. But, where you had maybe four people wiping down every car, you may have one or you have car wipes and some other things all of which go to go to consumption. We expected this. So, I think what you’ll see -- you’ll see certain categories have benefit going forward. But right now in the Institutional business, I mean, the number one volume standout is the negative impact on warewashing, which by the way, is where we have a lot of our innovation and money, it will come back. But until it does, right, you got a mix challenge in Institutional, doesn’t get fixed until dishes start getting washed.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of P.J. Juvekar with Citi. Please proceed with your question.
Eric Petrie:
Hey, Doug. Good morning. It’s Eric Petrie on for P.J. Can you talk a little bit more about your growth opportunity in these new fast kill cleaners? And how long does it take to reach peak sales in your view? And then, as these viruses mutate, can you talk about how effective the cleaner is over the long-term and whether or not you reformulate?
Doug Baker:
Yes. I’ll turn it to Christophe on this. They have quite a bit of staying power as you go through. And there’s different ways you kill organisms. And I would say, for instance, hand sanitizers, alcohol basically destroys a cell. So, it’s hard to develop immunity to a sphere if you think about it that way. Some do poison. And you can have immunity built over time to poisons, but not to everyone and it’s not a fast issue, i.e., we’re using quads [ph] that still have effectiveness that have been around for decades, right, in a number of instances. So, it’s not a short life in terms of our business careers. It’s a short life in terms of human history. So, I don’t know if you want to add in terms of, Christophe, how long it takes to get to peak sales, et cetera.
Christophe Beck:
The only thing I would offer is that we’re really watching every pathogens out there. So, the ones that we know well and how do they react against our products as well or how do our products are effective against those, the new ones as well, COVID being one of those that we didn’t know, obviously in the past and we learn from each other. The latest disinfectant that we talked about today with this extremely fast kill time was developed for the norovirus, for instance. So, we really look at all pathogens out there, try to understand the type of effectiveness, how is it still working, is there any reaction to it as well? And generally, so we develop our innovation in order to stay ahead of that. So, I believe that we are in a very unique place, especially compared to any competitor out there.
Eric Petrie:
Helpful. And then, just maybe talk, Christophe, on peak sales related to that question. And then, for my follow-up to Doug, as end markets recover, some managements have been talking about building out their M&A pipeline or returning to share repurchases. So, Ecolab’s net leverage has improved to the low 2s. Can you discuss both uses of cash? Thank you.
Christophe Beck:
Okay. So, I’ll take the first question and I’ll give the M&A part to Dan, just in a second. To your point, on the peak annual sales, we usually take five years, which is the best average that we have out there. Some products or sometimes shorter term, but most of them are longer than five years. So, that’s why it’s the metric that we use. On M&A, Dan?
Dan Schmechel:
Yes. So, I’ll interpret it more as a cash priorities question. You also asked the question on share repurchase. So, let me just say this. We ended the quarter with a little north of $1 billion on the balance sheet in cash, which is by any historical standard, a very, very big number for us. So yes, that’s the premise for the question. Right? I will follow the thread of a lot of the Q&A today to just say that the world remains a very uncertain place. And I’m comfortable with the amount of cash that we have on the balance sheet. Partly this is a cash is king environment. And there’s a lot of who knows what’s to be seen. We are getting increasing confidence, as you’ve heard, from the tone of the call today too, about the shape of the world with many uncertainties yet to be known. I presume that as we go forward, it will present both, challenges, right, maybe some unforeseen, but also opportunities. And so, I guess the shortest answer I can provide is that as our confidence continues to build, you’ll see us return to more traditional cash levels and cash priorities, including share repurchase and M&A activities.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.
Jeff Zekauskas:
Revenues declined $250 million in Institutional business, and Institutional operating profits were down $200 million. Why is the decremental margin 80%? If a decremental margin were 50%, you would have earned double? What is it about the business where the incremental returns are so high?
Dan Schmechel:
Are you talking about year-on-year on third quarter to third quarter?
Jeff Zekauskas:
Yes. Exactly right.
Dan Schmechel:
Well, I would say a couple of things. They won’t be 80% over any long period of time, as you go through this. But, you get into quarters. Now, you’re getting to what happened last period, you get into bonuses, bonuses where you know are taken down and up in different quarters in different years for different reasons, and these going to have impact as you go forward. There are other investments or bad debt and some other things as you go through this period. But, our decremental margins either going down or going up over a period of time aren’t going to be in the 80% range. The gross profit of that business is right in the mid-60s, right, on the good day. So, a lot of that’s going to happen. We are starting to take decisions on fixed costs and other things. And so, what we will see is a recovery of those margins as we go forward.
Jeff Zekauskas:
Were raw materials down about 5% year-over-year in the quarter?
Dan Schmechel:
Raw materials in total were not a material impact. If anything, they were negative in Institutional. A lot of that is stuff you’re seeing around heightened demand in hand care and some other areas, where you really just have shortage of supply, and Industrial, year-on-year minorly favorable.
Operator:
At this time, we’ve reached the end of our question-and-answer session. And I’ll turn the floor back to Mr. Monahan for closing remarks.
Mike Monahan:
Thank you. That wraps up our third quarter conference call. This conference call and associated discussion slides will be available for replay on our website. Thank you for your time and participation. Our best wishes for the rest of the day.
Operator:
Thank you to those who joined us today. This concludes our conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time. And we thank you for your participation.
Operator:
Greetings, and welcome to the Ecolab Second Quarter 2020 Earnings Release Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. At this time I’d like to introduce your host, Mike Monahan, Senior Vice President Investor Relations. Mr. Monahan, you may now begin.
Mike Monahan:
Thank you. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Ecolab's second quarter conference call. With me today is Doug Baker, Ecolab's Chairman and CEO; Christophe Beck, our Chief Operating Officer; and Dan Schmechel, our Chief Financial Officer. A discussion of our results, along with our earnings release and the slides referencing the quarter's results and our outlook are available on Ecolab's website at ecolab.com/investor. Please take a moment to read the cautionary statements on these materials stating that this teleconference and the associated supplemental materials include estimates of future performance. These are forward-looking statements, and actual results could differ materially from those projected. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are described under the Risk Factors section in our most recent Form 10-K and in our posted materials. We also refer you to the supplemental diluted earnings per share information in the release. Starting with an overview second quarter results reflected the impact from COVID-19 on our businesses, and were generally consistent with our expectations. Sales and earnings were strong for our Life Sciences, Healthcare and Specialty businesses, as they benefited from favorable fundamental trends and our increased cleaning and sanitizing demand. Our Industrial segment saw a modest sales decline but strong earnings growth, while our Institutional and Pest Elimination businesses experienced significant sales and profit declines due to the substantial negative impact on restaurants, hotels and entertainment facilities, as they felt the brunt of the March April global shutdown in travel and dining. Second quarter adjusted earnings per share from continuing operations were $0.65 compared with $1.27 a year ago. Results reflected the COVID-related volume declines and negative operating leverage as well as COVID-related impacts including second quarter equipment, lease billing suspensions of approximately $0.10 per share to support customers, a $0.06 per share reduction in Institutional distributor inventories, and increased bad debt expense of $0.07 per share. Looking ahead, we believe we're in a strong position to manage through COVID-19 and are confident we will emerge from 2020 in a stronger competitive position with a more robust offering. Our focus remains squarely on maximizing our post-COVID traction to drive growth. While we have near-term challenges that we are addressing within our Institutional business, we continue to have substantial opportunities in all of our businesses and the right strategies to achieve them. Clearly, Ecolab’s leading capabilities in food safety, clean water and healthy environments is more important than ever, and they have positioned us well as an important and effective partner in this world crisis and beyond. As a significant part of this, we have continued to work aggressively to partner with our customers to solve their problems, and in doing so, further improve our customer penetration and new business wins by providing the critical product, service and consulting support, our customers need to ensure their operations are safe and functioning effectively as COVID restrictions evolve, and our operations adapt to the new sanitation requirements. As a result of these actions, and our new sales initiatives, we have one new business. And along with gradually improving markets, we have seen sales across our businesses including Institutional improved since their lows early in the quarter. While COVID-19 creates a short-term challenge, it also creates long term opportunities. In a world challenged by COVID, our food safety, clean water and healthy environments, positioning has become even more important. We believe that our long-term growth opportunities remain robust, driven by our huge remaining market opportunity. Our leading global market positions, our focus on providing our strong customer base with improved results while lowering their water, energy and other operating costs and our strong financial position with resilient free cash flow. We believe looking beyond the near-term uncertainty and focusing on these sustainable long-term business drivers will yield superior long-term performance for Ecolab and our investors. And now here's Doug Baker with some comments.
Doug Baker:
Thanks, Mike. And hello, everyone. So just a couple of overview comments on Q2. We'll turn it back to Mike and then to Q&A. So our Q2 results were obviously significantly impacted by COVID-19. They weren't all in line with our expectations going in, which is probably a minor miracle because it is a very difficult environment to predict. The impacts were most acutely felt in our Institutional business. As a balance of our businesses collectively grew both sales and income during the period, Healthcare and Life Sciences had record growth, our Industrial businesses had extremely strong margin performance, driving strong income gains. And our Specialty portion of our Institutional reporting segment also realized strong growth. Our Institutional division though was directly impacted by the COVID-19 shutdown of travel and dining early in the quarter. This is a one-off event in the history. Now this event was truly further exacerbated by the resultant distributor inventory reductions and a decision we made to suspend Q2 dish machine lease payments as a mean for supporting the foodservice industry during this incredibly traumatic period. In total, these two items hit sales by $82 million in Q2, NOI by roughly $60 million. Importantly, we spent no time or effort postponing pain or managing Q2 for optics. Trade inventories fell and we left them. The dish machine market needed support and we gave it. Reserves and inventory, we took our full dose. Team size, we maintained. And investments we actually increased through the quarter. This is what we said we would do. And we feel it is a smart play. We will manage through the near-term pain in a way that maximizes our potential long-term. While the pain will continue, we believe Q2 was the low point. So while the short-term pain from COVID-19 is obvious, the long-term impact is becoming clear. Hygiene standards will increase in every market we serve, they have Industrial Healthcare, Life Sciences, Institutional and Specialty. New opportunities are presenting themselves every day in large space disinfecting and hand care and water safety and clean rooms and data centers, et cetera. We chase $130 billion market at the end of 2019 and it will be bigger going forward. We're even better advantaged to get after it. We've been out investing our competition for years and are clearly this year. Our digital and antimicrobial investments in innovation give us significant advantages. Customers water, food safety, safe environment, and operating efficiency needs are only growing and important. And our cleaner, safer, healthier positioning is spot on. Probably most importantly, our team has never so clearly felt the power of our mission. It is doing a great job, supporting customers, jumping on opportunities and rebuilding momentum. So, with that, I'll turn it to Mike who will open up Q&A.
Mike Monahan:
Thanks, Doug. That concludes our formal remarks. Operator, would you please begin the question and answer period?
Operator:
Yes, thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. [Operator instructions] And our first question is from the line of Tim Mulrooney with William Blair.
Tim Mulrooney:
So, the Institutional division was down, I think about 50% organically in the second quarter. And this is my only question today. But can you just walk us through how the monthly performance trended through the second quarter, Doug? And how that compares to what you've seen in July so far?
Doug Baker:
Yes. I'll give you a perspective on Institutional and we'll address your specific question, while doing it, because I know they're going to be questions, obviously. I mean, Institutional was where COVID impact was most acutely felt. It is obvious when you look at the results. And as I mentioned in my opening, the rest of the business collectively did quite well. Now, there are ups and downs within that group, but that's normal. In Institutional, though being down 50% is quite notable. So, the sales for that reporting sector were down 35%. And it was really driven by the decline in Institutional. Specialty was pretty strong. It was really driven by FRS sales of plus 31% and QSR was flat for the quarter. Institutional decline really was driven by a couple of things. The most notable was a huge decline or the huge shutdown in April of literally global travel and dining and we've never seen anything like this. Transactions fell in April 80%. Now transactions have climbed back. They were 80% down in April, 50% down in May, and down 30% in June. We've also seen our business move back from this 80% type decline up through the quarter. And we've seen it continue in July to your question. But we had other issue here. The distributor inventory rebalanced, which is always a natural outcome, particularly when you have a severe shock like this. So, we mentioned it is 50 million bucks. In the dish machine lease suspension, which we took on, because we felt that was a smart thing to do for an industry, which has supported us for many years. And we need to be in there with our customers, who've been decade long partners with us, to let them know that we understand the pain they're going through. That was a $37 million dollar decision at both sales and ally because it is a complete pass through. Now we asked for a trade there. When we gave relief for the quarter, and it was just a Q2 relief program, it ends or has ended. What we also went and traded for was an extension of existing contracts and new agreement for the dish machine lease program. We believe it is going to be a great deal for both our customers and for us long term. Now, the inventory is largely behind us. I think it is behind us if you start taking, actually the inventory rebalances $45 million, you take the $45 million and think is it a 30-day inventory or 20-day inventory, is a significant expectation of reduction in sales. That a larger than we think you need to do but that's always the way this thing goes. And we also know for sure that the lease suspension is behind us for sure. As a result, we're pretty confident that the worst is behind us particularly in Institutional which really as I just said, is a driver for the main challenge in Q2 for the overall company. Now I don't think we're going to see Institutional back in growth until you have a vaccine, people are not dining out for several reasons. In some states and some countries, they're not allowed to, but even where they're allowed to, we've seen them slowly return because there still exists significant fear of becoming contaminated or catching COVID-19. And until that fear dissipates, I don't think you're going to see a huge change or growth in the Institutional business. With that said, it is come back significantly from its low point. May was better than April, June was better than the May and we've seen continued progress in July as well. So we aren't going to be hanging out at the same levels that we saw in Q2. But don't expect growth in the next couple of quarters. We don't think that's realistic. Now, with that said, our team is all over a number of things which we think long-term are going to position us terrifically in this market. We’re already helping customers accelerate successful and safe reopening. If you've seen there have been over 50 large chains that have mentioned us, either the public statements or releases. We're also reengineering a plan to what I'll call over recover. So the goals here are to increase our penetration in existing customers by 20%. And we also want to do that while continuing to drive increases in the number of units. We had interestingly enough, very strong new business performance in Q2 in all of our businesses. But including in Institutional, we picked up a number of pieces of business that we've been chasing literally for decades because they understand our expertise, our coverage and how vital it is when you are moving through a pandemic situation like COVID and into recovery and into a world where everyone expects hygiene to be a much more heightened piece of the puzzle for all of these operators. So we're also introducing what we're calling the Ecolab Science Certified Program, which is really designed to drive heightened hygiene standards and outcomes within our customers, but also to create comfort for our customers and their guests and meanwhile drive increased penetration of Ecolab programs in these customers to get these better outcomes. So this is going to be a big campaign and a big program that we believe will position us for even more significant share gain and frankly, help our customers recover quicker. Now, we also have accelerated the new technology in the field for Institutional. This will help the team’s efficiency and effectiveness via routing remote service, online ordering and opportunity identification programs embedded in this technology. We're clarifying the roles in our field organization to create the focus needed. And frankly, we can do it now because we can leverage this new field technology that we've invested in. So our Institutional team is all over this. They clearly went through shock when you had to live through April and start seeing sales declines they've never experienced. I'll remind everybody, the last great recession was in 2009. Our Institutional business globally was down 2%. This is not because there's an economic slowdown, this is completely pandemic-related, shutdown-related, very unique steps that need to be taken in a pandemic. It is got nothing to do with consumer and/or some minor economic recession slowdown that has never feared us, that wouldn't fear us now, what does fear us is when you're not allowed to go into restaurants, it hurts sales, no doubt about it. Now, we do know this. Our goal is not to recover, it is to create a step function, change in growth while we're moving through COVID and then obviously setting ourselves up post COVID. And I’ve to say this, the opportunity is huge. So if you just look at the U.S. and you look at our penetration opportunity within our existing customers, there is a billion-dollar opportunity in existing customers alone. So it is not like we are short of opportunity. Globally this market will still be near a $20 billion market post COVID. So the opportunity exists. What we have today is called necessity, necessity to make change, to drive change and to get on the recovery path. And the team is all over this. The new technology we're launching, we got new antimicrobials that have been worked on for years coming out here shortly. Timing is perfect. We've got this new field technology, the right products. I think we have the enablement and the teams all over this.
Tim Mulrooney:
Okay, that's it for me. Thanks. Thanks for all the color, Doug.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Manav Patnaik with Barclays.
Manav Patnaik:
Thank you. Doug, just a kind of follow up on that, you talked about the Ecolab Science Certified Program, you talked about the 50 or so, I guess hotel change, et cetera, using that program. We've also seen obviously lot of airline and companies using the Clorox and lifestyles of the world as branding like them. Does that consumer brand and so forth matter in order to make the consumers I guess, comfortable going in there? Or if you need to pick up the NPR or marketing around the Ecolab brand for that? Just curious there.
Doug Baker:
I'd offer a couple of things and I'm going to give it to Christophe to offer some comments too. Number one, yes, I think there's always an opportunity to build. Ecolab is a great brand. It is really well known in the industries that we serve, but it is not very well known in consumer land simply because we're a B2B business. So there's certainly opportunity, if you do it smartly to, I think, increase our awareness and help increase and drive Ecolab penetration. The other fact that we know is, we've done a lot of consumer research. We've done it over the years and we've reconfirmed it recently. That really when you ask consumers, what makes them more comfortable establishments using hospital grade disinfectant, which is what we sell or consumer type products, they are overwhelmingly in favor of hospital grade disinfectant. It is not close. And I would say our customers understand this intuitively and the consumers are right. I mean, disinfectants at a hospital-grade level, kill more, and they do it much quicker. In many instances we're doing things in 30 and 45 seconds, which the products and consumer are doing in three and four minutes. And so that just doesn't work as well in the business-to-business environment. And so, I mean, I think this is well understood. So efficacy is not equivalent. And customers understand this, consumers do so to our customers. And so building programs around these advantages, communicating these program advantages, we think is an important part of the program. And I'll throw it to Christophe to give a little more color on Ecolab Science Certified.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Doug. And we've also understood that especially in the U.S., two-thirds of the people have voted number one. So cleanliness as the main reason to go or not to go in a restaurant during this COVID-19 times as well. And beyond what Doug just said, that hospital grade disinfectant, have a much better perception with guests versus retail products. We've also understood that people need to see safe in a restaurant or in a hotel in order to feel safe. And it is bringing those three things together. I need cleanliness to go in a restaurant. I need to see clean when I go in a restaurant. And I need to make sure that the right products have been used over there. So have led to that idea of the Ecolab Science Certified, which is not saying, that the restaurant is doing 100% right, but is using ultimately our standards, our protocols that we've developed with them, our programs as well as Doug mentioned this was some innovation. We've launched it a few weeks ago as well. It is a smart power disinfectant, which is killing viruses within 30 seconds, which is a world record, by the way, out there as well. And then we can audit those restaurants. And when they've passed everything, they get the seal as well, which is this Ecolab Science Certified, that guests when they come in, can feel in a better place than in a restaurant that would not have that.
Manav Patnaik:
Got it, that's helpful. And maybe just my second question, obviously here in the U.S. we read about all the hotspots and so forth, but you guys are clearly a much more global business. I was just hoping for some perspective on like, in terms of the trends you’re seeing to drive the improvements either like, I guess I'm not sure maybe how notable or sizeable are these hotspot areas that we're reading about versus rest of the world for you guys.
Doug Baker:
Yes, what we have certainly seen because you had said the pandemic start of obviously in Asia and China specifically early as, and so they are further along. And we have seen improvement, continued improvement in our sales in the China market. In fact in June they were positive in total and we expect that to continue in July moving forward. But that’s been a climb back from fairly significant decline as well, but they are months ahead. And I would also say they have a different mix. It is more Industrial than Institutional than the balance of the world. So, you're going to see some of that mix play out favorably as you go forward. But if you're looking at Institutional specifically within China, we've also seen significant improvement over the period of time as well as COVID has abated there somewhat, the restaurants are reopened and travel is reopened. With that said, it is not been a stampede back onto airplanes, into hotels, nor into restaurants. People are still waiting for I think, finality for this thing, which I think is in the form of a vaccine ultimately. And we don't believe until then that you're going to see complete market recovery in industry’s most hard hit by COVID. Now, it'll improve but we don't think improve completely.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of John Roberts with UBS.
John Roberts:
Thank you. Any way to gauge how much of Institutional is being supported by outdoor dining right now? Because as we move into the fall, we're going to lose that outdoor dining laid to the Institutional market.
Doug Baker:
John, it is hard for us to have exact -- I would say I think what's going to happen in the Institutional, I agree, we live in Minnesota, outdoor dining, maybe over the next week or so, winter comes quickly here. But I would say I think you see a transition, which is assuming we start getting aftermath and start doing things. And if you get the things back under control, you'll probably see fairly steady dining results. But you're going to see a transition to what I will call modest in dining, going forward. But that's why I'm trying to be a little circumspect about how far this recovery will go. We do not believe you're going to see a repeat of Q2 in Institutional sales by any means. But you're not going to see a 5% growth rate in Institutional until COVID’s gone for any number of reasons.
John Roberts:
And then Institutional customers have had to train their employees on new cleaning protocols. Did your Lobster.com acquisition help with providing customers with additional training support?
Doug Baker:
Yes, it is starting to. I would say what we're learning is how to utilize that technology most effectively. There's obviously been a lot of work done on food safety programming. When we bought Lobster, they had a fairly good breadth of portfolio around lodging specifically, the food safety program is coming on, and we're utilizing that. Yes.
Operator:
Next question is from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.
David Begleiter:
Thank you, Doug. Just on the margins in Industrial and Healthcare and Life Sciences, they were clearly exceptional in Q2. How should we think about them in Q3 and the back half of the year?
Doug Baker:
Yes, I head it to Christophe. I mean, Industrial is about 450 basis points. I would say, half of it, well to 200 of it was really T&E, and bonus. Take back as a consequence of slow sales in that segment, even though it is got outstanding. I would have said if you didn't have COVID, you would have had the same level of earnings, they would have just come a different way. But with that, let me give it to Christophe. I mean, he knows the Industrial business and Healthcare and Life Sciences is also performing quite well.
Christophe Beck:
Good. Thank you. So, David, if you comment so on the on the very good progression in margin, which is, by the way a continuation of what we've seen as well, prior to Q2, not that the same level. It is true that almost half of the improvements are has been driven by variable cost. So travel and entertainment and commission bonus, those traditional things, obviously that happen when people travel less, and sail less is what same time. But the true formula for the margin improvement in Industrial is the outcome of many years as well of work. If you've seen the pricing, it is close to 2%. We were 3% or so a year or two ago, and leading towards probably more to the one so in the future, which is our steady course. But having 2% in an environment like that is quite remarkable. And in how do we get there? It is ultimately out of two main drivers, David. The first one is the type of innovation that we can provide, obviously to customers. They pay more and always more for products and programs that keep improving, and we invest a lot stuff for that. And second is the fact that we commit as well to our customers for operational improvement, our total cost of operation reduction. Basically saying if you work with us, your total cost is going to go down. And we take part of that improvement as well into our pricing. And the second driver is the fact that raw materials have been reasonably benign over the past quarter. So if you bring it all together that's driving good margins for Industrial. And the story is very similar in a different environment, especially in Life Sciences which is kind of an Industrial business as well so a similar approach, and Healthcare as well with pricing that's a bit lower than in Industrial, it is closer to one than the two in Industrial, but the formula is quite similar.
David Begleiter:
Very helpful. And just on the new business wins you mentioned as a result of COVID-19, can you give a couple examples of exactly what those accounts were and how they progressed during this crisis?
Doug Baker:
Yeah. We don't give names in haven't in the past. And I'm probably not going to set a new precedent today. I'll give you some examples or what drove it. I mean, one is a very large operator in the lodging environment. And this is a piece of business that we had been able to secure for honestly 15 years. And it was several things, but most notably, it was just this understanding of the capabilities that we had and the needs that they had and how important it was to partner with somebody who can help you through the most difficult challenges. And so I think it was this recognition. And I hope today, when the team shared with both Christophe and I that they had won this business because both of us have had our crack at running the Institutional business individually, we never got it done. But they did. And it was really a quite significant win. It was also a huge blow to a key competitor in a number of ways. There have been then many other instances of businesses that we haven't really been in that suddenly we have fairly large stakes going because of their need for disinfection at a different scale in a different way. And so what I mentioned earlier in my comments, large space disinfection. There is this need and clearly in many of our customers think hotels and others. And we've got technology to do that. But we also have a technology in Bioquell, which is an acquisition we made in the last 18 months, that enables us to do very unique things from a disinfecting standpoint very safely. And so that technology is now moving and expanding fairly aggressively out of its home environment, which was historically Life Sciences into new markets, who understand and see the need and are learning how this technology can help them disinfect when they have a contaminated site, do so quite safely, without any people involvement. So there's a number of these things that are occurring. It is not just occurring in our sphere, but that's why I say this market. So we're going to have some market changes and I think our $130 billion may turn into $140 billion. It is not like every market’s going to go up equally x percent. You will have some markets that are a little impaired. But in total, in Healthcare alone, you've got a market that's going to probably triple and then settled down at doubling on a long-term basis. We're going to see hand sanitizer everywhere for a long period of time. In hand sanitizer, sales, if you can make it, you can sell it at this point in time. And so we know they're big changes and these changes are going to have lasting they're going to have legs going forward, maybe not at exact peak. But there is certainly going to be more sanitization, more concern, more awareness going forward. And we recognize that and we're making sure we're positioned to capitalize on it.
David Begleiter:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
Next question is from the line of Gary Bisbee with Bank of America.
Gary Bisbee:
Hi. Thanks, guys. Interesting that you're targeting 20% increase in penetration I think that was related to Institutional clients, but maybe it was more broadly on the other side of this. And I guess can you help us understand what the components would be to deliver that? And really what I'm trying to think through is like how much larger can unit level sales be on the other side of this when customers are following a higher hygiene standard?
Doug Baker:
The 20% I referred to the goal of increasing unit penetration was Institutional. I mean, everybody has a goal of increased penetration. And, I get asked the question a lot or have over the years, what percent of our growth do we want to come from new units are from penetration. Right now, in Institutional, we want a disproportionate coming from penetration. It is something we can control. It is stuff we can get after. You know that if you end up with larger penetration, you automatically start overwhelming all kinds of economics. If you in prove the shop per drop, I mean how much you're selling per service call, per delivery, per everything else, all the economics improve, it is sitting there. And I would say the team has got a very clear view of what needs to get done. So, certainly, Ecolab Science Certified is the umbrella idea under which it is going to help drive penetration. But the field technology also ultimately enables us for each call to identify every time one of our people pulls up to an account, what the opportunities are in that account, because it is tied to our ERP system. And so just being able to manage differently, how do we think about structuring our deals at the chains, how do we end up structuring our agreements, that distribution and how do we end up structuring our deal at the end unit in terms of encouraging more of our product and our sale. Now, this deal doesn't work if it doesn't work for the customer. So, this has to translate into customer benefit. You can't trick them. You've got to have a deal that, when they buy more from us, they're going to have cleaner outcomes and better operating income as a consequence of this, which is just what Christophe described in Industrial. It is the promise we've been delivering in Institutional for years, but it is reengineering that program specifically around a greater array of products and programs to deliver that of common food service and lodging.
Gary Bisbee:
Okay. If I could just follow up on the earlier question on margins at Health and Life Sciences and Industrial. I understand the drivers of discretionary costs being a portion. But as we think of the next few quarters do some of those costs, come back in or anything to help us understand how those could -- I mean Health and Life Sciences up 800 to 900 basis points. It is just a massive move. Right? Should we think that spending comes back in? Any color would be helpful.
Doug Baker:
I mean Life Sciences. I mean, it is a little bit of a magic. You saw the other side of it, when you're up 50%, good things happen. A lot of money flows through. When you're down 50% I guess we prove this quarter, bad things happen in the opposite. So, I think Life Sciences has been a profitable business will remain a quite profitable business. We would not say that that's our terminal run rate, the 50 top line or the 800 basis points at the below. But what we do know in Life Sciences, they got very good momentum, a lot of very smart new business programs that they're driving. They've had a few one offs here as a consequence of some of the Bioquell sales that we've had that we don't believe repeat long term. But with that said they're going to have very healthy growth. On the Industrial side, I'll give it to Christophe to answer it.
Christophe Beck:
Thanks, Doug. So, Gary, what's important to look at a little bit pre-COVID as well. So the evolution that we've had. This is the type of underlying margin improvement that we're going to continue to see. Yes, you're right, the discretionary spend is going to go up as people start to travel again, not as much as before, but it is going to be variable. So, it is going to go up. But at the same time, the leverage as well, the volume leverage in our operations is going to improve because that was a negative during that time. And ultimately, it is important to keep in mind, so these pricing momentum that we have between these 1% and 2%, which has been so positive for a very long time. And we have no intention to see drop below zero for sure. So it is to keep it so between one and two. So as long as we can get that in that raw material has remained so as they are now, the leverage and the discretionary will compensated for itself, which will lead to similar type of improvement, we had pre-COVID.
Gary Bisbee:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is coming from the line of Ryan Connors with Boenning & Scattergood. Please, proceed with your question.
Ryan Connors:
Great. Thanks for taking my question today. It is big picture question. And I really wonder, whether you can talk about the big picture of the federal response to COVID. I mean, obviously the shock that we saw from the Fed and from Congress was really key to stabilizing things in particular for many of your Institutional customers. But there seems to be an emerging debate about the unintended consequences of that and how that subverts the natural creative destruction and the calling of the herd, so to speak. So what are your thoughts on that in terms of how that impacts your industry and your business? Both in terms of competitors, who made have been priced based competitors who would have been vulnerable, but now they can hang around through PPP money or whatever, and they don't become acquisition opportunities or they don't maybe go away. And then also in terms of customers, are there small mom and pops that compete with your strategic accounts that maybe would have gone away that now will hang around and prevent your strategic accounts from gaining share?
Doug Baker:
Yes. Well that is a big question. I would say this. We’re going to take a lot of the early federal response was frankly much more right than wrong, i.e. fund the businesses and they get to keep the funds as long as they keep employing folks. I mean, if all you do is fund people, the problem is there's no employers left to reemploy them post event. And so I think they took a page, frankly, out of Germany when they went through the crisis back in the 2000. And I think it was a smart way to go. Hopefully there's more of that in tranche three. In terms of does it keep the walking wounded alive? I don't know. I think you're seeing a lot of people opening and really just opening to ultimately go bankrupt and to walk down. So I think you're going to see enough creative destruction as is the consequence of COVID in many industries, not just in food service and lodging, but retail and others as you go through. And so I think, the third tranche needs to go consider this. But the biggest driver I believe is really fear. And if you start looking at what's really going on and I alluded to this in China. So China has this under control in many respects, I mean, all the reported respects and you still don't have the same level of activity in retail or in dining or in travel. And that's not driven by government programs or anything else it is really driven by people's fear that they could contract COVID again and they are reluctance to do so. So the big thing that needs to happen, I mean, the government's got to do smart policy to figure out how they keep the economy moving and on life support at minimum, I agree with that. But we need a vaccine and we need better treatment, which is calm. But ultimately until I think communities feel confident that they can start gathering again, you're not going to see a normalization or a renormalization of the economy. You'll see recovery, but it is going to get stalled at x point. Now that's what I believe. So I think that's the big piece. So the government can do anything work and make sure the vaccination development is moving and that we are prepared to make billions of doses once it is available. So there you go.
Ryan Connors:
That's really helpful perspective. Thanks for your time.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Chris Parkinson, with Credit Suisse.
Chris Parkinson:
Great. Thank you. So, Doug, can you think of all $130 billion market at the end of ‘19, which will likely be bigger in the years to come. Can you speak to your assessment of your positioning for that growth? Is the focus still on a few key initiatives, just broad initiatives, such as enterprise selling and digitization and customer stickiness? Just trying to get sense of how you're rethinking or how you're further evaluating customer contract growth and the opportunity to expand there within.
Doug Baker:
Certainly the ones you mentioned are remaining as top initiatives. I mean, the digital work that we've done, thank God we invested in digital the way we did. In any company that did has been really prospering as a consequence of this. And, I mean, when Christophe just walked through what's going on in Industrial, a lot of the stage has been set over the last several years where they've worked very hard to better wire customers remotely, and also equipped to field with technology that enabled them to provide services they couldn't before. Same is true in Institutional. We are doing amazing things remotely that we couldn't have done just two or three years ago. And the ability to do this has given us great advantage. I'd also say it is given us great insight as to where we need to continue to drive digital innovation. Innovation in antimicrobials, which has been a prime focus of ours for 15-years, where we identified we had a major role to be quite honest. That's proven to be invaluable. We have the best portfolio. We have new technology, Christophe just alluded to one. And we've got another launch coming up here in a week that really couldn't be better timed in terms of ease of use, simplification, chill breaths, and kill time. And so all these things matter terrifically as we go through. But value capture, making sure that we are able to articulate the benefits of buying from us, not only environmentally, operationally but economically. And the big advantage we have the way we go to market is while we create huge environmental sustainability benefits, we do it while simultaneously delivering huge economic benefits. So, when you get into rough economies, it is the reason we've historically continued to sell successfully. We may start talking about economic benefits in advance of environmental benefits, but they're of the same DNA in the way we go to market. And so we believe, ultimately, that is a pretty resilient way and operating model to execute, no matter what the environment is.
Chris Parkinson:
Got it. And there's been a lot of focus, obviously, on some of the bigger areas and Institutional, full-service restaurants and lodging, etcetera. Based on how the strategies you articulated to me. Can you sit on, there are some other areas like facilities, long term care, and food safety had thrown their past and, Healthcare, I think you already spoke about a little bit? How are those turned in the back half the year because obviously, there's an argument that those will actually gain momentum versus some other businesses, which obviously will be more subjective to the actual, macro rebounds pre-vaccine? So, just what are your thoughts on that as well? Thank you.
Doug Baker:
Our appetite and interest in the Institutional markets including some of the segments, you talked about catering as well as lodging as well as food service as well as long term care had anticipated one iota. So, you're going to be in remain huge opportunities. We have outsized advantage in those markets. We believe clearly that we will be setting record sales and ally in those markets in the years to come. So, they believe and we believe those are terrific opportunities for us. They are going through, like a legendary impact is a consequence of the pandemic. And we'll see this through they'll see it through. But I don't know this. This imagination that somehow nobody's going to be dining out any longer, long term, where it is literally a tradition that's thousands of years old and only built over time. I just don't buy. Do I think that lodging may take a while to recover? Yes, it is 7% of our portfolio as a company, right? We can overcome some dents in some parts of our portfolio. We have to deal with it all the time through these things. But every intention is being absolute laser focused in the Institutional market. We take our advantages here are going to grow not shrink.
Chris Parkinson:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of John McNulty with BMO.
John McNulty:
Thanks for taking my question. You spoke in the beginning and in the release around the lever that you're pulling in terms of the equipment leasing. And now that should be a positive for you, as we look to 3Q. Are there other cost levers that you're actually looking at in terms of tailwinds that we might be able to think about as we go into 3Q or are you really just more focused about the service side. And at least for now the costs, maybe aren't as big of a focus.
Doug Baker:
I think as I mentioned, I would say this, I think there's two if you're just looking at sequential. I mean, certainly there's a $37 million lease suspension costs that will not repeat in Q3. And the other is, inventories have been largely taken down in the Institutional business. We certainly wouldn't expect to see a repeat of a $45 million take down and distributor inventories in Institutional. And you've got the tailwind and Institutional of coming off the April lows, right, which progressively increased and improved through the quarter. So even if you just stall the June 30th, you'll have significantly better outcomes in Institutional as a consequence of that. So I mean, those are three factors. And then the other businesses we think there are similar tailwinds headwinds as you go through that quarter. New business has been productive and all of them, we would expect once we can get in and install to continue to see the benefits from that as the year progresses as well.
John McNulty:
Got it. And then -- and maybe just a question, in the deck you have highlighted, on the full-service restaurant side about 80% are open, but they're operating at 50% dining capacity. I know your products aren't necessarily a one for one, but I guess how should -- if there's a restaurant, a typical full-service restaurant that you're servicing, and it is now running at 50% capacity, what does that mean for Ecolab products? Again selling more to them or what have you in terms of targeting them for different avenues? Like how should we think about how much of a step down that would actually be?
Doug Baker:
Yeah, it'd be less than 50%, call it 65%, 70% percent of sales, if you had 50% less business or like a 30% hidden sales roughly. You've got, just turning on the dish machine and running it all day consumes chemical. You got to clean the kitchen at the end of the day, whether you serve one meal or 1,000 meals. So there's a number of fix pieces, but a big piece is obviously variable. If you're not dirtying tables, you don't have to clean them. If you're not dirtying table claws, you don't have to clean them. If you don't have many dishes, you don't run the dishes at the same rate. But it is not a one to one on the way down.
John McNulty:
Got it. Thanks for the color.
Operator:
Next question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.
Vincent Andrews:
Thanks and hi everyone. A couple of quick ones for me, just maybe to close the loop on Institutional by add back suggested the inventory additionally saying. And presumably a good portion of bad debt expense that theoretically gets me to a base level of earnings in the second quarter. And then if I think about adding volume back in the third quarter. Just trying to understand what the incremental margin should be on the volume that comes back sequentially?
Doug Baker:
Would you just send Mike your spreadsheet?
Vincent Andrews:
[Indiscernible].
Doug Baker:
Exactly. Look I can put it this way. If it is more than a lie that falls down, I don't know you'll give me a specific percentage. I don't know everything that you've moved in there. I mean, you got components of it. It would be part of the total. So I think it is not safe for me to go give you like a specific percentage on that type of question. I apologize.
Vincent Andrews:
No worries. We'll beat Mike up on it later. And then it just as a follow up. Just on the working capital, obviously, you talked about what happened in inventory. But receivables and payables, you didn't make much progress on in the second quarter. I'm just wondering, if there's a plan for that in the back half or we should just assume current percentage rates?
Doug Baker:
Dan, answer this.
Dan Schmechel:
Yes, sure. Thank you. So let's talk about it maybe in part. So on the accounts receivable. The total number didn't change dramatically. But there was a lot of kind of dynamism. I guess, if you look at what drove it. So unquestionably, we saw increased aging of the accounts receivable portfolio as customers paid more slowly. Some of that likewise was behind the increased calculation of accrued bad debt expense, which we've noted. We got a big benefit, though. I mean, the sales start to come down, you get a significant volume favorability in accounts receivable. So although it didn't look in on a net basis, like it was a very exciting space, it was when you looked into the details of it. And let's just say, we've talked at length about expectations of volume and where we think we are in the recovery. From a rate perspective and our collection efforts, I will say again, what I said on the first quarter call, which is, I think we're all over it. Look, we've made, and think about this lease billing decision that we made. We have made concessions to customers where we think that they were smart and necessary. They were predicated on customers who agreed to be current. And which is an important point to be made similarly, just to be very blunt, we expect to be paid for the value that we provide. And so what you will see going forward in the third quarter, for example, my expectation is that as volume ramps that will consume cash in the receivable base and that will be partly offset by our continuing effort to collect and to improve the performance of that portfolio from a rate basis. On the payable side, look, it is a much smaller cash flow to begin with. I think that we did the right things similarly to stretch the payments as we had the opportunity to do it. We want to be good customers for essential providers at the same time. So the net of it all is I think that we've been responsible, prudent, fair minded, and fair to our customers and to our vendors at the same time.
Vincent Andrews:
Very clear. And I agree very fair. Thank you for your response.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Shlomo Rosenbaum with Stifel.
Shlomo Rosenbaum:
Hi, thank you for taking my questions. Hey Doug, are you seeing any difference in the appetite for hospitals to do more program buying? That was always an issue in terms of the Healthcare growth, but that was just a change for the way that they were always looking for the lowest cost. You guys sell on the best value overall. With what you're selling and your ability to service some of the stuff and just the increased interest in hygiene and sanitation. Is that changing the mentality over there or is it too early to tell?
Doug Baker:
Well, I think it is too early to tell, like, as COVID changed. And I will say this pre COVID we're having more success driving programs. They continue to grow faster than the business underlying business rate even now. But a lot of that is because of programs that we put in place, right, as we went in pre-COVID. I guess what we believe in the Healthcare, the acute care space in particular is certainly their sensitivity to hygiene is at all-time high. And we do not believe it falls to pre-COVID levels post COVID, that it too, with heightened hygiene awareness standards and frankly, we'll be spending more on outcomes. We think all of that is a positive for us going forward. I would also say, I mean, our team, as you recall, we had a recall that was in December of last year in our European business or on U.S. business. And that team did a great job working through their recall, getting back to and frankly accelerating production levels beyond what they had pre-recall and getting through all the government expectations and moving forward. And what we've seen is I would say great appreciation from our Healthcare customers, because we're able to meet their needs. I think a larger appetite for better technology as we move forward. And if you really are spending more in hygiene, you're going to even be more concerned about doing it wisely, which benefits program selling.
Shlomo Rosenbaum:
Okay, great. Just for my follow up, can you talk about how broad based the pricing was, just 2% pricing in this environment seems really good. And if you could talk about, what the different puts and takes were around that?
Doug Baker:
Yes. I mean we had 2% in our Institutional segment, reporting segment 2% and our Industrial segment. Healthcare was as I think already mentioned, around half that rate as we went forward. Life Sciences was around 2%. So, it is pretty widespread. As we've talked, we expect this if raw materials remain benign, which is probably more likely than not given just Industrial situation globally. This probably moves down to 1% over a period of time, but we don't like zero or negative.
Shlomo Rosenbaum:
Thank you.
Operator:
Next questions is from the line of Scott Schneeberger with Oppenheimer.
Scott Schneeberger:
Thanks. Good afternoon. First one for me with regard to CapEx. You mentioned a quarter ago, you cut that by about 50%. This year, just curious how you're trending and the founder. And I think it was one of the supplementary pieces that you anticipate cash flow to net negative this year. So, just wondering how you're thinking about that in that context and how you're progressing on that new plan? Thanks.
Doug Baker:
I would say two things. We ended up in the quarter to be it down about, I don't know 35% versus last year, and more like 40% to 45% of plan. So, what happened was, honestly, there's a number of good ideas and as learn things and we wanted to invest in them. And our cash flow in the quarter was proven to be better than, let me just say some of our most severe models for sure. And we're quite confident we will be successful with positive cash flow through the balance of the year each quarter. So, we're through what we believe is likely going to be the biggest stress test on cash flow being this quarter, given the dramatic decline in Institutional sales, particularly in April. And then the ramp back that we've talked about. Going forward on capital. Capital is going to be down year on year. Let's just assume it is in the same level, because we've already approved a number of what I would call we think smart investments. And what we don't want to do is under invest in this business, given our optimism for what post COVID world looks like. And we don't want to be sitting there flat footed one of the curves. One of the huge advantages we have versus competition, we've been out investing them. I think we've been out innovating them. And we want to continue that plan because this type of stress makes people pull back. Some don't have any choice because they will have negative cash flow given, if you will customer portfolio much different than ours. And as a consequence, we want to take full advantage of being positioned to meet customer needs going forward with the innovation they need post COVID.
Scott Schneeberger:
Right, thanks. Appreciate that. And then a quick follow up to pick up on something you'd mentioned earlier, Doug, and you kind of left off. You talked about Bioquell is obviously mentioned as a lead driver in the quarter in Life Sciences. And you said that it is transferable to a lot of other end markets and uses. I was just curious if you take that a little bit farther. Anecdotally, I've heard that, people have stayed in hotels, and had something that they perceived as similar to what I perceived to be. And they said that made them feel very comfortable in the COVID environment. So, I'm just curious how broad or what type of potential tam that could be relative to the pre-COVID world? Thanks.
Doug Baker:
I'll answer it broadly I mean, will it be exactly Bioquell technology or other technology that way after space disinfection, I'd say, time will tell. We're doing a lot of work on both. But certainly the Bioquell specific technology has applicability outside of its typical or legacy hold market of Life Sciences. We've already seen it used broadly in Healthcare. We've seen it used and we've got inquiries in a number of Institutional markets in other places. And so I don't want to get into specifics and customers and everything else. But it is fairly broad. But we also have other technologies that we think may play a role in some of these markets still. There would be potentially less expensive to use in smaller spaces than Bioquell. And so we know it is not going to be a singular answer, but it is going to be a broader answer. And I think the team's been very smart. We have a lot of individual initiatives. And we're working to tie it together to make sure that we have a collective view of what's available around the company to go meet these needs. But to us, it spells thrill and significant opportunity going forward.
Scott Schneeberger:
Thanks very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jeffrey.
Laurence Alexander:
Hello. Two quick questions. The first on the Institutional margins. Can you get back to the 2018 levels? [Indiscernible] can you get back to that?
Doug Baker:
Yes, I would say I don't think we've seen our peak margin in Institutional. Right? I mean, we're not going to get back there this year. That's for sure. And it is going to take a while to go march back there. But there's nothing I know that says that Institutional has the ability to set record sales, record margins, record income levels going forward.
Laurence Alexander:
But I guess what I'm trying to get at is can you get to the same margin as last year at a lower sales run rate than last year? Or do you need to get back to within 5% or so to get the same margin?
Doug Baker:
I'll answer a theoretical question with a theoretical answer. And I don't mean to be cute on this. Some of this in what we've been doing is making sure we understand what the situation is going to look like in our markets. Before we take real action. Now we're doing a bunch of things to equip our businesses to be much more agile in the field. And I talked about field technology and the acceleration that we're doing in Institutional, as we've done in Industrial and other places, this gives us the ability to do a number of things. But if you wanted a theoretical and you told me that I was going to live in a world with less units, okay, if I sell more per unit, I will make more money. And I don't need to get exactly to the same level of sales, simply because everything I do becomes more efficient. So there's always ways to engineer the business, if you will, to overcome whatever it is that the world is going throw at you. What we need to make sure we understand is, what is it that the world's throwing at us? What is the market change? We have a lot of guesses out there, but what we want to watch and make sure we understand it and we will design to win in that market. So we could do it with less volume and make the same amount of money, which would be a higher margin. You can't do it at half the volume, but you could certainly do it at any normal expected, potential pain you might realize post COVID for a short period of time or even a couple of years.
Laurence Alexander:
Then I guess in that context, can you talk a little bit about what you've seen in the Chinese recovery? What you've learned? And so is that where you started to sort of narrow down the guesswork, so to speak?
Doug Baker:
Yes, the reason is, I'll say what we've seen. I mean, we've seen recovery, we haven't seen exactly the same volume per unit. So we're adding units. I mean, the big difference between the Chinese market and the U.S. market for us is just share. And so we're solving a lot of the problems there because we do know the lay of land. We got really small share and we need to grow it. So we're adding new customers. And I would say the environment lends itself to that because of, what I would say, our reputation capabilities, et cetera, are lending themselves and playing well in that given environment. But that's going to be a little different situation than you would have in North America where you may have higher share in a more fully developed market. And there we may have to call a different play depending on where we think the market settles. We have a better idea today than we did three months ago. But we will know a lot more in three months than we do today. And what we want to make sure we do is the right move. And we are doing the right steps to enable the few moves we think are going to be possible and probable, but being premature on this thing, we think would be a mistake.
Laurence Alexander:
Okay, great. Thanks.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Rosemarie Morbelli with G.research.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. Doug, while we are looking at Institutional business, not growing at 5% obviously anytime soon, at least I don't think so. How much of an improvement do you require in terms of hotel occupancy in order to actually return to being flattish? And if they operate at 40% capacity utilization or occupancy rather, can you -- do they don't inflate all of the wood in one particular corner and therefore they only clean 40% of that facility?
Doug Baker:
Well, there's not an easy answer, like 59%. I would say, I think two things are going on. Certainly there's been temporarily demand destruction in the lodging and dining markets. I mean, it is nothing disputable. And now part of that has also been overcome by increased spend within these places on hygiene. So if you walk into a hotel today, you are going to see and Christophe alluded to this, we talked about the Ecolab Science Certified program, part of what people want to do is they want to see clean. So interestingly, where before people would hide cleaning public areas from the public and not do it until off hours, they're now doing it 24 hours. They want the public to see this happening. And they're increasing cleanliness frequency in virtually every part of the establishment. So that's going to if you will mean you can get back to same sales at lower occupancy. What that exact math is, I mean, we're all learning. I mean, we're literally weeks into this thing as we go through there. With that said, we saw better recovery in U.S. lodging in the second quarter than I would have guessed going in. And it was quicker in some regards in other markets, which is an interesting outcome. And so we'll all watch this, but we don't need to get back to the same exact level that have the same if you will spend per location.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
And then looking you are emphasizing hospital grade infections. But as we all know, and as you know about hospitals, your hospital experience, if they are not used properly, it really doesn't matter what they use. So, are you training them? Is there some kind of a certification? And would you be held responsible if you certify that what they are doing is going to end up with a clean area?
Doug Baker:
Yeah, absolutely. And all I've Christophe give some color. A key component of the Science Certified program is in unit training of employees. And some of this is going to be done through Lobster type technology and much of it like it is done historically it is also in-person training and development. But you're absolutely right. I mean, if you don't take a disinfectant out of the bottle, it doesn't kill any germs. So you need to do it properly. The advantage we have with our accelerated kill time, is it is much less sensitive to procedure. If you have 4-minute requirement for dwell time, that is a huge training obstacle. Because it is not natural, it is not what we do. People don't spray things and leave them on there for 4 minutes to kill. It is just not what we all believe, is necessary. Even though it is actually the requirement. And I can ask Christophe to get more color, if he wants to, around some of the training and certification efforts around Science Certified.
Christophe Beck:
So the idea of Science Certified is really that you get audited at the end. And we know that it is a point in time. We should be going every day in order to make sure that everything is right. But we want to make sure it is like in a company if the accounting standards have been defined what you expect the people to follow them and then to audit them. That's a little bit of the same approach in a more volatile world, obviously, so in the kitchen and in a restaurant. But it is really defining with them, what are the standards? What are the protocols? How do we train the people? What are the programs? And as Doug mentioned, so we're trying to have programs as simple to use as we can with the maximum impact in terms of kill time, and in terms of efficacy as well. And at the end of the day, so to have these audits. And at the same time, as well being our territory managers who is coming regularly, in that restaurants are to make sure that things are being done the right way. So it is really protecting the unit with the right procedures and at the same time with Ecolab Science Certified is that you will see on the door that the guests coming in, get some level of comfort as well with this see clean versus just to feel clean.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
Okay. That's it.
Operator:
Next question is from the line of Andrew Wittmann with Baird.
Andrew Wittmann:
Thanks. My questions have been asked and answered.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of P.J. Juvekar with Citi.
Eric Petrie:
Hi Doug. It is Eric Petrie on for PJ. How often do contracts come up for renewal and Institutional market? And in terms of your new business wins are customers more willing to source incremental products from Ecolab or is there still mentality to diversify supply?
Doug Baker:
I would say there hasn't been more one than the short answer is. I mean they're anywhere from three to five years on average, our contracts. I don't ask investors to take a lot of comfort there, we don't. I mean, if a customer wants to leave us because we're poor performing, then we do not sue. I mean there's a few exceptions if we have capital upfront and do some other things. And we have spelled out requirements, but we operate like every one of these contracts has renewed every day. It is the only way that you continue to grow share in these industries. I would say customers, typically I mean, we have very good penetration in a number of our chains, wide and deep. And so there is not, I would say a built-in reluctance in the industry to do this. I think what we need to do is continue to sharpen the way we articulate the benefit of doing it, of having the product portfolio are because in every chain there's always a gap or two. So every place we go, we know we can sell more as we do it. But it is not a simple thing, they have this purchasing mandate of having two suppliers. That's not the situation we see. We address security supply, which is a very real and valid concern by making sure that we manufacture in multiple sites, that we have multiple avenues to supply customers even when we're in sole supply. So they can't be victimized by a bad event, say unfortunate hurricane or tornado or some other natural disaster that knocks them out and us.
Eric Petrie:
And my follow up question, how many customers in the Institutional business currently use the hospital grade disinfectant and where do you see the market opportunity to grow that to and related, would you see a mixed benefit?
Doug Baker:
Yes, I would see the roots of the disinfectants we use in those businesses are hospital. I mean, one of the real advantages we've had being in the healthcare market is you see the emerging pathogens first there. And so you learn how to treat them and deal with them and then it helps you as they start migrating and other institutions around the world. So the base is there. But as Christophe alluded to in a recent launch and I talked about earlier, we have several new very important developments in that space that is just in the process of rolling out, which enables us, I think, to help customers have more resilient programs because the kill time is faster. So it is less procedure-sensitive. So those things are just starting to roll out literally now.
Eric Petrie:
Helpful. Thank you.
Operator:
At this time, we've come to the end of our question and answer session. And I'll turn to floor back to Mike Monahan for closing comments.
Mike Monahan:
Thank you. That wraps up our second quarter conference call. This conference call and associated discussion slides will be available for replay on our website. Thanks for your time and participation and best wishes for the rest of the day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may now disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.
Operator:
Greetings, and welcome to the Ecolab First Quarter 2020 Earnings Release Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mike Monahan. Thank you, Mr. Monahan. You may now begin.
Mike Monahan:
Thank you. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Ecolab's first quarter conference call. With me today is Doug Baker, Ecolab's Chairman and CEO; Christophe Beck, our Chief Operating Officer; and Dan Schmechel, our Chief Financial Officer. A discussion of our results, along with our earnings release and the slides referencing the quarter's results and our outlook are available on Ecolab's website at ecolab.com/investor. Please take a moment to read the cautionary statements on these materials stating that this teleconference and the associated supplemental materials include estimates of future performance. These are forward-looking statements, and actual results could differ materially from those projected. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are described under Risk Factors section in our most recent Form 10-K and in our posted materials. We also refer you to the supplemental diluted earnings per share information in the release. Starting with an overview of the results, adjusted earnings per share grew 10%, reaching the upper end of our forecast range. Results reflected good underlying sales growth, pricing and cost controls, which yielded the first quarter's earnings increase. COVID-19 netted to a modestly negative impact on sales, but a minor benefit to earnings from cost controls. Acquisition-adjusted fixed currency sales increased 2%. The institutional and Healthcare and Life Sciences segment showed good sales growth, which more than offset a 3% decline in Upstream Energy. Excluding the Upstream Energy segment, Ecolab's acquisition-adjusted fixed currency sales increased 3%. Adjusted fixed currency operating income rose 12% with operating margins expanding 110 basis points. Pricing, improved volume growth and cost savings initiatives more than offset investments in the business and other selling-related expenses during the quarter. Progress continues on the separation of our ChampionX business. We continue to expect the transaction to be completed by the end of the second quarter. Ecolab's leading capabilities in food safety, clean water and healthy environments have positioned us well as an effective partner in this world crisis. And we've responded aggressively to the pandemic. As more fully outlined in our March 25, COVID-19 webcast, we have taken a broad and further bolstered our already strong financial position and cash flows. At the same time, we are working aggressively to safely assist our customers, providing them important product, service and consulting support that they need to keep their operations safe and functional for the present and have them well prepared for when they reopen. We are also preparing growth plans to aggressively drive new business gains as the recovery develops. As previously communicated, the uncertain outlook regarding the full extent of the pandemic's impact on the global economy and its longevity do not provide an adequate basis for us to provide either quarterly or annual earnings forecast. As a result, our forward-looking guidance remains suspended. 2020 represents an anomalous period of unprecedented proportions. As the world navigates the challenges from COVID-19, our food safety, water management and infection protection positioning have become even more relevant. Our long-term growth opportunity remains robust, driven by our leading market positions, our focus on providing our strong customer base with improved results, while lowering their water, energy and other operating costs and our huge remaining market opportunity. Further, our financial position is strong with ample liquidity and resilient free cash flow. We believe looking beyond the near-term uncertainty and focusing on these sustainable long-term business drivers will yield superior long-term performance for Ecolab and for our investors. And now here's Doug Baker with some comments.
Doug Baker:
Thanks, Mike, and good day to everybody. So, I'll just offer some comments on Q1 and a bit of perspective on 2020. So, our Q1 adjusted EPS results were better than expected, as we realized expected business acceleration versus Q4, the COVID-19 impacts were different than we anticipated. COVID-19 did negatively impact sales but also drove lower expense in T&E, benefits and other costs, which more than offset the sales impact. But this is not a pattern we see going forward. We know the coming COVID-19 period will be more adverse. But importantly, we entered this period in a position of strength. The business and company are in very good shape. We've got a great, very experienced team that's been through crisis before. We've got a resilient business model that generates cash regularly, and we have a strong balance sheet and cash reserves. So all of this is important as we expect the COVID-19 period to extend into 2021, and we believe the recovery will be shaped more like a U than a V. Finally, we also believe that COVID will have a significant impact on our business, short term, quite negative, but longer term, quite positive. So our guiding principle is really manage the short term in a way that positions us for maximum long-term benefit. That's where the value is. So, we've already taken a number of steps to do this. We created a cash reserve backstop. We cut expenses. We put in hiring freezes, eliminated merit increases, et cetera. We've also cut capital by 50% versus our budget, but preserved digital antimicrobial and hygiene tech investments as they were. Now, these are detailed examples of steps we've taken and how our approach of managing the year to maximize our post COVID potential shows up. But let me offer some perspective on the year in the future. So first, 2020. Like it seems everything is with COVID, the outcomes are going to be asymmetrical. We have businesses having record years or that we expect to have record years like F&B, Food Retail, Healthcare and Life Sciences. But we also have businesses competing in markets that have been virtually shut down, like Institutional, with restaurants, hotels, cruise lines, et cetera, really not in business in a material way. So, in total, the net impact of the pluses and minuses of these groups of businesses will be negative for the year on both top and bottom line, and we've signaled that previously. The timing impact over the course of the year, though, is going to be imbalanced, too. Q2, we believe, is going to be the most impacted quarter as we realize both the full effects of COVID-19 volume declines, driven by these temporary closures in key markets. Plus, we're also going to be realizing channel destocking at the same time. However, we expect Q3 and Q4 to start showing sequential recovery from Q2. This recovery during the second half will be driven certainly in part by reopenings, but also by expected increased demand for hygiene programs. Now, we're already seeing this across industries like F&B, Food Retail and even in traditional industrial settings, where we hadn't had this type of demand before. The recovery will be further driven by a number of our own initiatives that we already have underway. Look, we're feeding and fueling segments with momentum, F&B, FRS, Healthcare and Life Sciences. We're adding people, investing in capital, doing all the things that we need to do to build on that momentum. We're launching new offerings, particularly in hand care and sanitizer categories. And we're developing new applications for a powerful Bioquell system. Three, we're maintaining growth investments in animal health and data centers, which we have seen as great growth opportunities before COVID, and they remain great growth opportunities. And finally, we're actively pursuing new strategic customers. This is a great time to continue to talk about the benefits that we bring in good and difficult times. Now all of this represents what we call the early-stage development for the world after COVID. Our business will certainly be pressured this year, but we'll continue to generate positive cash flow and gain share throughout the year. We believe our clear leadership in hygiene, antimicrobial, digital, lowest use cost delivery; environmental offerings will be even more valued after the pandemic has passed. And a number of important factors we believe will remain true. We will still chase a huge market. We will still have a sizable competitive advantage. One might argue that our competitive advantage will be improved. We're in better shape than most of our competitors to handle a situation like this. We will have great customer relationships as we demonstrate we're the right partner, particularly when the going gets tough, then we will have answers for water scarcity, which will still be a huge issue. And finally, our ESG advantages will remain significant and important. But we also believe that, there's going to be new transformational opportunities as customers and communities' expectations evolve. And this is where we will put extraordinary time and effort as we move through this year. We see building an even broader and more robust set of annuity businesses as the highest priority for the year. This is what we've got to use this time to do. It's why we so firmly believe that managing through the short term in a way that positions us for maximum long-term benefit is the right play. So with that, I'll hand it back to Mike.
Mike Monahan:
Thanks, Doug. That concludes our formal remarks. Operator, please begin the question-and-answer period.
Operator:
Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. Our first question is from the line of Tim Mulrooney with William Blair.
Tim Mulrooney:
Good afternoon, Doug. If I could just build on that last comment you were making. If I could ask you to break out your crystal ball for a second, how are you thinking about what the world looks like a year from now? When all the governments and corporations have retooled their cleaning and sanitation programs and protocols, where's the puck going? And how are you positioning the company to best take advantage of this likely increase in your value proposition?
Doug Baker:
Well, I mean I guess early read is twofold. I mean, I think we're quite confident that there's going to be heightened awareness and sensitivity towards hygiene concerns by consumers, which ultimately is what's going to drive businesses to raise their standards. And so, I think we'll see this in a variety of ways. If you went back to some of the earlier almost pandemics, they caused many commercial buildings for the first time to put things like hand sanitizer in their lobbies. I would say that was a baby step to what we feel might be the potential here. I think consumer's going to be quite aware of surroundings. They're going to be quite sensitive to, are things actually clean? They're going to want visible signs, call it cleanliness theater. How does this show up? How does it manifest itself, et cetera, and this is going to be quite important to consumers. And it's a consequence to our customers. So that's obviously one big area. The other is we've all had this very different experience now with digital. And the interesting part is, so have our customers. And so while we've had big digital advantage, and I imagine we're going to ask questions about this, it has proven to be invaluable during this time because it allows us to provide service levels, awareness levels, maintenance, ongoing vigilance that you couldn't do if you were connected in the way we were. And some customers who I think were reluctant to the party in some industries, say even in the food and beverage industries have become real big converts. I think this is going to be true broadly, that the push that we have in digital is going to prove right and that we really do want to accelerate connectivity with our customers. We want to connect our supply chain in certain ways to customers. We want to make sure our field is adequately connected to us and to customers. And so a lot of this area, I think, is only going to become more important. I think we're all somewhat, maybe I am, surprised at how effective we are able to work remotely. But we're still only touching, I think, the tip of the iceberg there. And as we get this connection, I think our value, our know-how value, our unique information stream value, our potential AI value, all gets heightened even further because we've got a great amplifier for it. And then there's a lot that we don't understand yet that's going to, I think, reveal itself over the coming months. And that's exactly how we're approaching this. We have confidence in a few things. And we are watching and learning aggressively in other areas, because I think this will reshape society, I think, in mostly positive ways. It's a very terrible thing to go through. But how it comes and manifest itself can be very important. And in a couple of areas, we're quite confident it's going to be quite positive for us.
Tim Mulrooney:
Okay. Thank you. My second question is on raw materials. And I mean, this was years ago. I think I remember you saying that if oil ever broke $20, you'd hedge it out as long as you could. And I mean that was a different time and things are moving fast here. But what is your long-term view on the price of oil? And might the company get more aggressive with hedging right now? And are there issues with finding counterparties in this environment? Thank you.
Doug Baker:
Well, I have the great benefit of a lousy memory. So I have plausible deniability about everything I would hedge oil if we got below $20, which doesn't mean it didn't happen. It just means I have no recollection. So here's what I would say. We don't take hedge positions like that. For the simple reason, nobody buys our stock, because they think we'd be any good at this. And we'll hedge transactions, which are known and specific and discrete with discrete timing, but that's really the extent of it. And if we start straying there, would you just kick us, because that's not what we're about. What we're about is creating great programs, meeting customer needs and creating value that way. In terms of crystal ball, I mean, obviously, I don't have one. When it comes to oil and some of the other stuff, I would just say this too, I don't believe this is the end of cycles in the oil business. That's a very hard call. You can see how sensitive it is in terms of there is inventory space for the top, which is why it moved so radically when supply and demand moves. Now normally, supply and demand moves by like a point or two during a recessionary period. And here we've had oil fall in demand by 17% in April. I mean, it's unparalleled. So I think we're going to go watch it and understand it, but we are going to take hedge positions because we know we'll likely get it wrong over time.
Tim Mulrooney:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Manav Patnaik with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.
Manav Patnaik:
Thank you. Good afternoon. Doug, you gave some color, obviously, in terms of the segments that are moving up and those that obviously been hit hard. I was hoping if you could maybe give some color on what the exit rates look like in the month of April thus far just to get some gauge of what that looks like?
Doug Baker:
Yes. I mean, I would say what we've seen in April was very similar to what we expected to see. Now your disadvantage is you didn't know what we expected. But it's along the lines that we just talked about. The businesses that look like we're going to be advantaged because of the shift from restaurants to food retail, you would expect our Food Retail business to have increased sales as the grocery stores are working very hard to increase hygiene standards to protect their workers and their consumers even in an environment where it's a pickup situation. And so we've certainly seen that play out in increased demand for that business. This shift also causes big changes in shifts within the food and beverage industry itself as they've got to change pack sizes to more consumer-oriented from food service-oriented pack sizes, et cetera. And those shifts have also driven demand as has heightened hygiene for their workers to make sure that they can continue to create a safe environment for workers and continue to operate. So I'd say -- and then healthcare is obvious and those demands are obviously around antimicrobials in particular, in hand care and like stuff that you would expect. That's offset somewhat by the fact that in the U.S. in particular, elective surgeries have been frozen. And so we've got part of our Healthcare business with huge upswing in demand in part with significant downswing. With that said, the net in Healthcare is a net positive as we go through. And then Life Sciences. So Life Sciences was doing well pre-COVID, continues to do quite well. And then Bioquell, an acquisition that we made a little over a year ago, which has hydrogen peroxide technology that's basically listed enables us to do a number of things that we couldn't do before and that are quite important right now to customers. So they're getting the experience at the technology because of unique needs, but we believe that experience is going to leave -- we're watching it, is going to lead to permanent use of this technology as we go forward. And then on the downside, you know where restaurants are and hotel occupancy and the like. Cruise lines are all docked. They're not consuming much right now. So 30% of our business is going to be under real significant pressure, particularly in the second quarter, where you have most of these restaurants down. There will be some opening as we move through the summer, I don't think all of them in one rush. But we know the second quarter is the most acute quarter because you compound that with distributors having to reduce inventories as a result of their demand being down, et cetera, it's kind of the double whack, if you will. And with this, when you have reduced demand like this, suddenly, you get significant, right, fall-through to profit because in this case, we're like at a 50-50, if you will fixed variable because you can't move quickly and find some of the variable costs. So the second quarter is going to be the quarter that gets most of the bad news, if you will as a consequence of COVID.
Manav Patnaik:
Got it. And maybe just as a quick follow-up to that. In terms of the most impacted sectors to the negatives that you referred to, just some thoughts on what you're hearing from them kind of what the Main Street view is versus Wall Street today feeling pretty optimistic things are opening up. Just curious, if you had any comments there?
Doug Baker:
I guess, we're watching what's going on around the world. And so look, in the United States, you're going to have very different, I think, pattern, simply because the governors seem to have much more the steering wheel here. And they're not going to act in one fashion. And probably appropriately, they've got very different situations by state. You got very different density in some states than others. And so I think you're going to see different reopening patterns emerge as you walk through here. We've seen what Atlanta's doing. They're moving early. They're getting criticized for it. I'm not going to -- I think moving a day late, it's smarter than moving a day early, honestly, in this situation. But they're doing what they're doing. And so, it's not completely predictable in the U.S., but I would guess that you're going to start seeing some areas reopening and allowing restaurants to reopen. And then what I think you're going to see govern is consumer behavior. So if you go to China; and China has reopened restaurants. And restaurant volume has picked up from the low, but it's nowhere near where it was because until we have, I think, security that we know how to treat the disease, step one, and then ultimately, we have a vaccine for the disease, I don't think you're going to see fear abate to a point where people revert completely back to pre-COVID norm. It wasn’t just similar in 9/11. So if you went through 9/11, which was a fear event, travel got stopped for a period of time. We opened up within months. But it took two years for airline boardings to equal pre-9/11. Why? Because it took a while for people there to feel comfortable that probably the government had this under control going forward. I think this will be more binary in terms of if there's a vaccine, people's comfort level will move up. And I think you'll see a reversion back to mean fairly short order is my estimation. But until then, I think it's going to be a slow ramp-up as people reopen, consumers become somewhat comfortable they can do this safely, and that's just going to take time.
Manav Patnaik:
Thank you.
Operator:
Next question is from the line of Gary Bisbee with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.
Gary Bisbee:
Thanks. Yes. How do you see your role in business reopening? There's been a number of outsourced services firms calling out the big opportunity to help with cleaning, disinfection, test and other things to get -- whether it's a restaurant or an office building. I would think your pest business could benefit. Maybe there's some onetime sales of chemicals are more than they'd normally buy. Is this a real opportunity at some point over the next few quarters? Or in the grand scheme of what you do, do you not see that as a huge -- a big potential for you?
Doug Baker:
Well, I think certainly, we are well aware of the reopening, I'd say, challenges and opportunities that all of our customers face. They've got to start-up these operations again. They've got to do it in a manner that's somewhat different from the way they were operating before because of consumer expectation and real health concerns. And so we are, obviously, doing a lot of work in this area to make sure that we can provide the help our customers expect from us. Yes, I mean, certainly, whenever you have sort of the reverse case, I'm making here, which is when you're going down like this, down in demand so suddenly because it's really brought on artificially as a consequence of municipal shutdowns, you also have not only the lost demand but the lost inventory. And when they start back up, there's obviously going to have to be inventory pick back up. There's going to be kind of heavy clean work early before they get to more normal patterns. So there will be somewhat of the reverse as you go through this process. But I don't believe this is going to be one day that this occurs across the United States or across Europe. It's going to be a series of reopenings that I think are across a number of months. So I don't know that it's going to be a seminal event.
Gary Bisbee:
Okay. And then the follow-up, just how are you thinking right now about the benefit from lower raw material prices? Obviously, oil has gone way down. Are you -- given the challenge a lot of your customers in, is there any thought process of sharing some of that or being accommodative on pricing for some period of time? Or are you likely to be able to flow much of that benefit through to your gross margins as you've done in past periods of lower oil prices? Thank you.
Doug Baker:
Yes. No. I mean, our expectation is raw materials will be -- are going to be less this year than we had forecast going into the year, for sure. And as one of the reasons is oil price per year example. I would say that we're bearing a lot of cost beyond raw materials. I mean, one, just reduced volume in a plant environment never bodes well for gross margin, right? You've got a fixed asset or you've got some variable costs in manufacturing. There's also not insignificant fixed cost. And we've had to have a lot of special transportation needs because of this huge uptick in demand and sanitizers and the other things. And what we're doing is what's right for the customer as we go through this. So I don't expect this to turn into a big pricing event.
.:
Think about the large hotel companies, small hotel companies, large restaurant group, small restaurant groups. And so we are actively working to do and take our role seriously as long-term partners who benefit in the good times and understand how we can help in difficult times around fixed fee arrangements, around some of the other stuff. How do we postpone and lengthen agreements and do things that may accentuate the short-term pain, but we think is exactly the right thing to do when you expect to be partners going forward for decades as well. So we're taking those steps, which is a little bit why some of the Q2 conversation. But I believe we are positioned smartly and intelligently to manage through this in a way that will maximize long-term gain for this company. And that's exactly what our mindset is.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your questions.
Katherine Griffin:
Hi, there. This is Katherine Griffin on for David. Thanks for taking my question. So first off, on the COVID update call, you discussed seeing some improvement in China in March in Institutional customer activity, seeing that begin to improve, whether it was lodging occupancy improving. I'm curious if you've seen that trend continue so far in April?
Doug Baker:
Yes. I would say our China -- China recovery is going to be up and down. And I think we said in March is going to be like a negative 9, it was actually better than that. So, we saw a continued recovery from our business in China, both on the Industrial and on the Institutional side of the business. What we see in Institutional, as I alluded to in a previous answer, was it's slow. It's moving. If you looked at the low point for lodging occupancy, it was certainly below 20. It's now around 35%. So, it's moving up, but not at a rapid pace. Let's just say it fell faster than it's moving up. Hence, my opening comment that we expect more of a U recovery than a V. I think there's a lot of reasons for that beyond just what we're seeing in China. On the foodservice side, you're seeing them back. In part is that China is still, while they say instances, they're being very cautious in terms of allowing complete freedom of the population because I think they're very weary of a double infection. And -- so this is the pattern that we're seeing, which colors the answers I gave or informs the answers I gave earlier. So yes, China recovery, still moving in the right direction. Sales are recovering in China a little faster than we said in our March 25 call, but more of the patterns the same than different.
Katherine Griffin:
Great. Thanks. And for my follow-up question. So, you talked about the digital investments being directed in hand care and BioQuell. I'm also curious as you think about how to prioritize these investments, is it more to help, specifically for your Institutional customers meet their needs near-term or are you focusing those efforts more on kind of the long-term solutions you anticipate your customers might need? In other words, have you gotten a sense of how urgently and to what extend your customers are looking to adapt to a post-COVID-19 environment. You think if they're looking to just do simple dispensers or double down on purchases of disinfectants? Or do you think that there is urgency as early as this year to invest in more advanced solutions, maybe something more like what your BioQuell applications would be used for?
Doug Baker:
Yes. So, Katherine, I would -- I'd say, well, it's a combination of both, to be honest. So, look, we're doing some work, and I'm going to have Christophe fill this in because he's leading the charge on the digital investment. I mean, there are near-in opportunities, but we believe they are long-term needs around digital training, for instance, and how we utilize that capability to enable large customers to open quicker and more effective ways, but also have a technology that will provide legs in terms of their ability to use it on a long -- on an ongoing basis. Other areas, its fuel connectivity and the like, but let me ask Christophe to speak to some of those.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Doug, and hi Katherine. So, thanks for the question. What's good with digital is that we remain very consistent in our focus, in our investments over the past few years. And it's just going to get accelerated now, but the direction doesn't change. Just as a reminder, our three big pillars in digital is first, to enhance the customer value. You can think about it like a hand care compliance in a hospital, making sure that the whole healthcare personnel is really so maximizing, so the protective measure that they can have with hand care products. Second is, really so to maximize our field impact, which is really to facilitating the work of our teams. And third, it's to improve our operational performance. Those are the three big strategic pillars that we've declared many years ago and that we've really remained focused on. And when we think in terms of alignment with what customers truly need, remote monitoring, as you've heard as well. The fact that in many place we cant even go in, even if they're operating. Well, the fact that we have the systematic center, we can provide service and value even if we're not there physically. The second one is automating as well also our customer processes. Well, that helps them reduce their costs while we're not there as well. But it can be, as well, the predictive analytics that we're doing so for regional disease, for instance, in here, whether that's reducing the risks as well for customers that truly need it now. And last but not least, our compliance, as mentioned. So, for instance, the hand care compliance program for hospitals that I mentioned earlier, while in this COVID environment, this is even more useful for our customers. And to take again to what Doug said a few minutes ago, well, the hygiene standards are going to go up in the next few quarters, few years. We believe how much we can debate that, obviously, while digital technology is going to help us, help our customers even more. So that would be my take.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of John Roberts with UBS. Please proceed with your question.
John Roberts:
Thank you. I'm glad, you all sound well. Doug, some countries, Sweden, South Korea, Taiwan, have kept full serve restaurants open. Do you have any evidence yet of increased product use per location in any of those areas where full services stayed open?
Doug Baker:
No. They're relatively small. What I would say is, we have a number of QSR restaurants open. We have restaurants open in other markets, where we've seen certainly heightened sanitizer sales, hand care sales in particular. And so that, in many cases, is even offset lower traffic.
John Roberts:
Okay. And then propylene, surfactants and other chemicals are coming down. Do you think you'll get some help in the second quarter from lower raws? Or will you be buying so much less that it's going to take longer before you see the benefit of some of these lower raws?
Doug Baker:
Yes. No, I mean, the lower raw costs, we would expect to have a benefit in Q2. But it's just going to be because of volume destruction in the Institutional business, in particular, which is short term, but acutely focused in Q2, is going to -- I mean, what that does to plant overhead absorption and the rest, that's going to be much more of the story.
John Roberts:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Chris Parkinson with Crédit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.
Chris Parkinson:
Great. Thank you very much. In terms of your supplemental commentary regarding Healthcare and Life Sciences trends, are your customers solely in reactionary mode still? Or are there already discussions on how to further develop their programs over the long term? So, basically, where do you believe you'll offer the most impact in terms of your Healthcare and BioQuell platforms? And on the former, how would you rank yourself in terms of the competitive environment? Thank you very much.
Doug Baker:
Yes. I'll just offer a quick perspective then ask Christophe to comment. From a competitive environment, I think in these periods, I think you got to certainly watch your traditional competitors, I would say, there. If anything, this typically accentuates our strength; balance sheet, financial model, kind of, long-term management and scale. But you got to also make sure you're watching for new entrants, and maybe people enter in ways that they -- that previously didn't make much sense, but this opens the door. That's also true for us, by the way, entering, I would say, some new businesses. And then finally, I think I'd ask Christophe even to broaden it. I think there's a number of customers are in different places per your comment. Healthcare, I think, is an interesting question and then maybe comment on some of the other businesses. Even those who are going through the toughest times are certainly thinking ahead already and having conversations. Christophe?
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Doug. And hi Chris, maybe to you comment on reactionary versus proactive, especially so in hospitals, it clearly started as a reactionary mode because they got overwhelmed with so many patients so who came in the hospitals. And we've helped them as well with sanitizing programs that have been growing very fast. It's also helping them as well, disinfecting as well the PPE, the masks, as well in a hospital that was really -- so making sure that they could serve the most urgent needs that they have in hospitals as we've seen in media, obviously, over the past few weeks or months. Now it's shifting towards more proactive. And interestingly enough, well, it's coming back to the value that we've been offering. So for a long time, just as a reminder, what we do for hospitals is to help them prevent hospital acquired infections, which is obviously very aligned with what's happening in here. So the needs for those hospitals is growing. And once this tidal wave is a little bit of softening for them, we see really see hospitals to come back to us and really asking, how can we help them really reduce the infection risks are going forward. And if we move a little bit further away, so from our hospitals and think about hotels and restaurants, well, it's been a bit different, obviously, because they had the wave down where we helped them really so stay open as long as they could by providing them so sanitation programs as well, worked out quite well then closed. And then it's really so helping them down, thinking about how do reopen? What are the programs that they need? What are the products that they will require? We have done a lot of webinars as well where we had thousands of people as well joining to understand, so the background as well of COVID. How can it be dealt with? How can we live with it as well so going forward? And then it's really so training the people as well, taking that time as well, this kind of downtime as well in between, train our people, serving their people, training them as well. And last but not least, Chris, it's also to provide our audit services, which is ultimately making sure that everything that we've planned together to give to them has been truly delivered and really so closing the loop as such. So, kind of, very aligned with the value that we've been offering so far.
Chris Parkinson:
Got it. Thank you. And just in your first quarter pest elimination results, you mentioned difficulties accessing customers for service, which I imagine is still ongoing. But do you ultimately believe pest will merge into one of the other kind of mega trends that you're seeing across water, hygiene, disinfectants, et cetera, just given the disease of all this component? Just wanted to hear what you're getting from your customers and how you see the global opportunity emerging versus, let's say, 2019 and prior years? Thank you.
Doug Baker:
Yes, I'll quick answer. So the pest business, yes, I mean, the access reference was fundamentally, some of the buildings are just closed. And so that's created some access challenges. They're short term. That will abate. But we do not see any circumstance where pest services and our pest programs, in particular, are going to be less valued going forward. We think the opposite case is probably the better argument.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.
Vincent Andrews:
Thank you and good afternoon, everyone. Maybe you could just talk a little bit about where you saw the very strong results in the first quarter. Do you have a sense of -- obviously, lots of stories across the universe of products being hoarded and so forth. Was there anything maybe beyond hand sanitizer that you guys sell-in to customers that you think might have been built-up substantially?
Doug Baker:
Yes. Well, I'd say a couple of things. The quarter, we were going to have a great quarter before COVID. We ended up having good earnings. We talked that sales were modestly negatively impacted from COVID, but we were realizing the recovery in Institutional that we had predicted and in the other businesses are having a good quarter. Where we certainly saw heightened demand, even though we said there was some demand destruction in the first quarter as a consequence of COVID, certainly, hand sanitizers, surface sanitizers, really across Institutional and Healthcare, in particular, but also in F&B and in some of the other businesses where, I mean, the demand spikes fast. So, too, does a consumption, so we do not believe this is an instance where there are big hoarding stockpiles being built by customers. What you have is significantly more hand care consumption and sanitizer consumption as a consequence of this. So it's in places where you haven't had it before. That doesn't mean somebody didn't have a garage full of the stuff somewhere, but I don't believe that's -- that's the big story. I think the real story is consumption has jacked up dramatically in these areas.
Vincent Andrews:
And then maybe if I could just ask on the market share opportunity, are there things that are being done differently as you go after, particularly maybe some of the large potential customers that you've had -- you just haven't made inroads with over the years? Or are you getting involved directly, Doug? Or what sort of -- are you doing, particularly given, I would assume the social distancing and everything, you can't have your sales folks doing much other than these webinars. So how are you trying to make this a little bit more personal and then maybe get some of that business that you've always wanted?
Doug Baker:
Yes. We're certainly not following the old rule, where we would blanket them with an army of people. Yes. But we're -- look, we're doing videos. We're doing other ways to get in front of customers. Yes, certainly, executives are doing some door opening. But by and large, we've got a great corporate account team. And what we've learned over the years is these environments open doors that have been hard to open in the past. And there are opportunities where some of our technology maybe can fill a need that they now have. They can understand and experience us in real life, and we can prove that what we're saying, it's actually true. And we have several instances of that going on in large healthcare customers, quite honestly, but also in others. And I'll ask Christophe to add a little color here, too.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Doug. Well, our philosophy is really so to keep in mind that customers will remember how we dealt with them during difficult times. And that's true for our existing customers. But also when we look at the market more broadly, the strength of our company gets accentuated and the weaknesses of others, too. So we have customers who have been working with other companies in that meantime as well. So recognizing that they don't get what they're looking for with some of their current partners and comes very naturally to us, which is a very good thing. So we obviously -- help them with new programs. We're in a position where we can provide a very comprehensive program, where it's obviously, cleaning and sanitation, can be infection prevention, can be pest elimination, can be water safety as well, all the things that the company can provide. And last but not least, two elements on one hand; well, we can supply large quantities that they need as we just discussed, those needs of sanitizing products go up and require capacity so to do that. We have it to a certain extent. It's not unlimited, but we could provide much more. And last, but not least is the digital capabilities that we have that can bring it all together and for them, understanding how they're doing as a customer. This is something that most companies can't do. So bottom line, yes, it's helping us, especially long term.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of John McNulty with BMO. Please proceed with your question.
John McNulty:
Yes, thanks for taking my question. With regard to the Global Industrial segment, I guess, how resilient are you thinking of that business acting as we kind of go through this recessionary period? I mean, obviously, there are some fears on the Institutional side, but this one does seem like it may have greater resiliency. I guess, how should we be thinking about that?
Doug Baker:
Well, certainly not going through the shutdown scenarios that you're seeing in the Institutional side. So it has that. I think what we said in some of the transcripts that we released this morning or later on this morning was, we expected Industrial to be fairly resilient, equal to or modestly below last year in total. And so, you've got some winners in there; F&B that we've talked about. But you'll have some large Industrial stuff going on, too. Christophe, why don't you talk a bit about how you see it?
Christophe Beck:
Yes. We believe that Industrial, in general, will be less impacted, will be impacted in Q2, for sure, as most businesses ultimately. But as Doug mentioned, so Food & Beverage, well, is growing nicely, has been a very strong business before COVID, by the way, with very good programs, very nice new business generation as well. And the demand, so has just grown not only because people need more consumer goods, but those consumer goods companies need as well more sanitizing programs to make sure they can keep operating as we read in the newspaper, obviously. So F&B is going to keep humming. The whole Water business, as we've mentioned, so we felt some demand slowdown in Q1. That's going to continue in Q2 to a certain extent and then come back second half. And as mentioned, so we expect it to be flat to slightly below last year in aggregate with everything we know right now. Downstream is, obviously, being related to the oil and fuel consumption, but it’s a story of two chapters in here. There's the oil consumption, but it's also what we do for refineries that is stable so no matter what out there. And Paper, interesting business in that situation where, obviously, e-commerce goes up and the whole towels, toilet paper, for whatever interesting reason, has gone up very highly over the past few months and seems to be fairly resilient so far. So, all-in-all, kind of stable versus last year to potentially slightly negative.
John McNulty:
Great. Thanks a lot. And then Doug, I think I heard it, but I just wanted to clarify. So, when we think about the decremental margins as we go into kind of 2Q and 3Q, did you say it should be somewhere in the 50% range? Is that the right way to think about it?
Doug Baker:
I think what we were saying in total, fixed costs are around the 50% level, particularly early because you don't have time, if you will. There are costs that are theoretically variable. And they're variable over time, but they're not variable on day one. And so thinking, particularly in Q2, we're on a 50-50 is probably the better way to think about it.
John McNulty:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Scott Schneeberger with Oppenheimer. Please proceed with your question.
Scott Schneeberger:
Thanks. Good afternoon. Just kind of following up on that. You've already alluded to CapEx being down probably about 50% this year. Just curious about the thought process as you progress through the year and what you see, how would you think about maybe doing more, maybe doing less? Thanks.
Doug Baker:
Well, I think the thought process; I'm going to ask all Ecolab management to hold their -- plug their ears for this comment. We purposely took capital down aggressively for 2 -- but as I mentioned, while protecting digital investments, antimicrobial investments and other investments. And we took it down aggressively because it's easier to add it back in than it is to go for double cuts. And it's earlier you do this work, the better off you are. So, we certainly would have room in our estimation. If there are great return ideas, we're going to learn things, as I mentioned before. And I imagine part of that learning is going to be where we could maybe invest some smart money early for outsized returns long-term. And we have certainly kept some capital at bay to go do that. So, my expectation would be that if it moves in any one direction from here, it will probably move up, not down.
Scott Schneeberger:
Thanks Doug. And just following that up. On the OpEx side, with regard to business investments, are you reining those in this environment or is that something you're going to go ahead with full steam and just fall through and look for the -- coming out stronger on the back side?
Doug Baker:
Yes. Well, again, it depends on what it is, but back to the things that we're quite confident in around antimicrobial program development, digital, both when you roll it out, et cetera, that takes OpEx costs, not just capital. We've retained all that money in the plan, and it's significant. The reason for that is we know it's absolutely critical to the future. It was before COVID. And I would argue, we think it's even more important now with COVID, so all that stuff remains. And what we're working to do, look, you could go and try to say, my goal is to make 2020 as good as possible. And that's going to be our overarching view. For our business, in our situation, we believe as a team, and we're all like locked in arm on this, that is not the right answer. The right answer is to manage 2020 responsibly and intelligently, but really with a mind on 2021, 2022, et cetera. And that doesn't mean we're going to be foolish or anything else. But I would argue, if you really went after 2020, given this is artificially induced, there is going to be recovery. Nobody's clear exactly how it's going to show up, that taking this and using time to your advantage, and we have the ability to do that given the resiliency of our model and frankly, our balance sheet and cash position. And as a consequence, we're going to allow time to help answer some of these things. So we know how to invest intelligently. We know how to reshape businesses that need to get reshaped intelligently. We're just going to make, I think, moves once instead of multiple times, and organizations don't like multiple upsets. And so that's the tack we're taking. Q2, I could care less about, to be honest. It is -- we'll make money, but I don't care. Spending time on making it look less bad seems like a waste of time. It's a 13-week period. What we want our team focused on is really all the stuff we've been talking about, the investments Christophe has been talking about around digital, connectivity and all that, the new antimicrobial capacity and ideas that we have, how to leverage Bioquell, how do we develop comprehensive programs for reopening and ongoing behavior for clients who need new stuff, et cetera. That's really where we think the money is long-term for -- and how you create value for customers and communities, and that's how you create value for shareholders. And that's the stuff we're all over.
Operator:
Thank you. The next questions come from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.
Unidentified Analyst:
Hi guys. It's Dan Lazar [ph] for Laurence. How are you? You mentioned that you're seeing some inventory drawdown. I was wondering what channel inventories were before COVID. Were they lean or normal? I mean, certain companies are saying that their inventory's already lean. I was wondering how much can actually occur?
Doug Baker:
Well, the inventory drawdown we're talking about is in -- let's just pick food service distributors. I don't know exactly where it stood, but let's call it normal. But what was normal is now abnormal, high because their demand has fallen dramatically as a consequence of all the restaurants being temporarily closed. So what was normal became too much inventory for them. I mean, just the machine models that will be driven are based on consumption, and consumption going down is going to make inventory looks like it's gone up. So they're just not going to -- they're not buying. They are shipping more than they're buying, and they're shipping a lot less than they used to.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay, thank you. And then you mentioned during your prepared remarks that hand care and sanitizer products would go up and allow you to introduce some new products. I was just wondering what you're introducing now for hand care and sanitizer products, how is it different from say, what you were introducing, say six months ago or before they started?
Doug Baker:
Well, I mean, a great example, is driven by Christophe and team with huge assist from supply chain and everything else is, look, we ran out of capacity in our traditional hand sanitizer. And so we went and developed new formulations that allowed us to build this on different filling equipment than we were using heretofore and start meeting inordinate demand. There are now, what I would call hand sanitizer 2.0 views of how that evolves from here. So something that happened literally inside of four weeks is now already being rethought about how do we move that in second quarter to even stage two. So those are examples. Around the world, we had a lot of our team step up in very unique forms around antimicrobials, forms we didn't sell before, maybe were sold by others but in small amounts. And they came up with ways of meeting consumer or customer demand that we really didn't have that capability as early as January And so the team has done a very good job being responsive. What we're now doing is saying, okay, out of all these ideas, what are we really going to bet on? And where are we going to put permanent capital, if you will, behind some of these ideas and there are a few already that we want to.
Unidentified Analyst:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Rosemarie Morbelli with G.research. Please proceed with your question.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
Thank you. Good afternoon everyone. I was wondering if given the situation with Upstream, do you think that there is going to be any change to the current agreement you have with Apergy? Are they going to take advantage of the situation in order to change something?
Doug Baker:
Well, I mean, the way the agreement is written is even if they wanted to, they couldn't. Our agreements are agreement. We believe still that this will conclude successfully within the second quarter.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
All right. And then on the F&B, which was very strong, given the impact of some meat packing facilities shutting down, is that -- do you think you're going to impact your -- that particular business, particularly in the U.S.?
Doug Baker:
Well, protein generally isn't the highest consumption part of that business for us, but I'll throw it to Christophe.
Christophe Beck :
Yes. Bonjour, Rosemarie. So maybe a comment on F&B. So interestingly enough, the plants that closed down were not customers. So obviously, that's not impacting us as such. To Doug's point, so the meat business, protein business is not the major part of F&B. That's one that we're contemplating more for the future, but it's not big right now. And on the other hand, so those customers need more sanitizing programs that we can offer. So that's all good news, actually, so for F&B.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
Okay. And if I can ask Christophe, another question. You talked about what you were doing on the digital side. Given the environment currently, are you changing your focus on the digital needs of your customers? Or do you think you keep moving on the same path?
Christophe Beck :
Yes. Great question. It's the latter, actually. So we're really trying to stay, not even trying. We are staying very firmly on the same path. If anything, it's to go faster. And the interest of customers to be connected is growing, especially in situation where we can't get to the customer, well, this is a good argument to get connected in order to provide a remote service. And as I mentioned before, so automation is helping customers reduce their costs. While this is something that we're accelerating because they will need it even more in the next few months, quarters. Whatever happens down the road, customers will need, so some savings in the total operating costs. And they will be ready to invest more in our digital technology, and that's why we ramp things up. So here, our speed of progress, we're not changing the direction at all.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of P.J. Juvekar with Citi. Please proceed with your question.
Eric Petrie:
Hi. This is Eric Petrie on for P.J., Doug, I wanted to ask, how do you see the magnitude of sales decline in U.S. and Europe compared to China? Guessing there's some differences due to the extended stay-at-home orders, but any thoughts directionally would be helpful, particularly in Institutional?
Doug Baker:
Well, I mean, the situations are quite different in terms of development. And frankly, Europe didn't act in a unified fashion. You had different countries because of disease progress at different points in time to act in different ways at different points in time. So there's no one answer really that will work in Europe. I think what we've seen is, I would say, more similar than dissimilar, what clouds it sometimes is the percent hand sanitizer can kind of cloud some of the results, et cetera. U.S. really across the board went really aggressively on a restaurant shutdown. You had as talked earlier in Europe, a number of the big countries have shut restaurants down, but not all countries. And in certain markets, they've stayed open as is through the whole COVID experience heretofore. So there's not, I think, one model. What we signaled, and I think there's plenty of outside data that if you look at our largest market, which is the U.S., you've had a lot of the restaurants either completely closed or only allowed to have pickup or delivery, which is a dramatic downturn in their business. And there's public data around number of transactions, which are down in the 40% to 60% depending on the segment percent rate year-on-year. And I think those are good indications of the type of demand you would expect to see.
Eric Petrie:
Okay. Helpful. And then secondly, as you're growing your annuity business, do you see greater opportunity in existing customers with circling the customer and adding increased solutions per account? Or do you see greater opportunity from new customers?
Doug Baker:
Well, I think it's always the answers in both. And Christophe's answer on protein would be, right, a good evidence. I mean, certainly, there are providers there who are high quality and highly concerned, who we have not developed relationships with over time that we would love to develop relationships over time. That would be on the new side. And then within our customer base, given the new sensitivity around hygiene, which we believe is here to stay for quite a while, there's going to be ample opportunity, if you will, to sell new additional programs to help them meet new consumer expectations. So I would say, it's a great chance for both. We like to have a balanced approach and have both at all times. That's typically how we build our marketing plans. And so, this will also fit that well.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mike Harrison with Seaport Global. Please proceed with your questions.
Mike Harrison:
Hi. Good afternoon. Your slide deck mentioned the accounts receivable write-off risk was under 1% of sales in the prior downturn or in prior downturns. This downturn is different, really hitting your foodservice and hospitality customers. Can you talk kind of in general, how you view their financial position and how you are thinking about the risk to collections or around bad debt?
Doug Baker:
Yes. I'll ask Dan to give his perspective, and then we can add some color to it. Thanks.
Dan Schmechel:
Yes. Thanks, Doug, and thanks for the question. So, yes, you're right. We gave the parameter around how our collection experience and bad debt expense trended after the Great Recession. And, clearly, like you, we think that this is going to be an event of a different character. So let me just say this. I mean, Doug said upfront, and it's true. We're very confident in our financial position. We go into this experience very committed to be partners with customers that we have decades-long relationships with. That said, we are also on our guard and looking out for our own interest and for our shareholder interest. I'll just put it this way, maybe. We will work very collaboratively with customers with the interest of helping them also assuring ultimately great collections. We have tested our bad debt experience and portfolio deterioration very, very severely. And the net of it is, we remain very, very confident of delivering positive free cash flow across the year.
Doug Baker:
Yes. And I would add, the disadvantage of being a global business is, you see a lot of crises over time. And the advantage of being a global company is, you see a lot of crises over time. So if I even go back, there's a long history, a very good partnership between the finance team and the businesses. And it takes both to manage these risks. So it could even be the Greek crisis. It could be things that we go through in Latin America routinely, experience we had as just referenced in 2008, 2009, and things we've gone through in Asia at different points in time. We have experience here. That doesn't mean that we are going to mitigate all the challenges either. So the fact that there's going to be increased bad debt is almost a surety. And then it's a question of how well do we mitigate and manage that. And I would say, we have a very capable team there.
Mike Harrison:
All right. And then one of the things that you guys addressed as an opportunity at your last Investor Day was Legionella. It seems like this is an issue when you have buildings closed for some period of time and then you reopen them. So can you talk about how Legionella might factor into Institutional and lodging or maybe some other markets as we start to look at an eventual reopening?
Doug Baker:
Yes, Christophe will address this.
Christophe Beck:
So the water question, is becoming so a bigger opportunity. So for those sites, this is true in hospitals. This is true in manufacturing. This is true in hotels, because infection, in general, will come from the weakest link. So it's maybe a little bit coming back to a previous question as well. So saying that if we serve very well, the food safety risk doesn't mean that the whole infection risk is reduced if we don't take care of the water cleanliness, if we don't make sure that the past is being eliminated, so, that's where the comprehensive value of the company makes a huge difference for our customers going forward. So the question on water is becoming more interesting and more in demand, especially so in Institutional and in Healthcare. This is true for Legionella. Just to remind, it's really coming out of sprayed water, so like the cooling towers. But it's also disinfecting the water from the building, which is important as well. And it's also getting the right quality of the water for any food preparation or drinks for that matter as such. So, the water opportunity in those segments will raise going forward through that period.
Operator:
Thank you. Our final question today is from the line of Andy Wittmann with Baird. Please proceed with your question.
Andy Wittmann:
Great. Thanks. I wanted to get an update, I guess, on the three-year efficiency initiative where you guys are playing on addressing about $325 million of cost savings. And just trying to understand, how that gets addressed with all the other complications of COVID. Just does that number go up in terms of your target savings? Can you -- and really, could you just give us an update of the annual run rate of savings maybe that you ended the quarter at? Can you reiterate or update us on the incremental savings that you expect to see this year and maybe next year? I just want to understand, how that's factoring into your business plans today.
Doug Baker:
Yes. I would say, Andy, we went into the year with $130 million incremental savings as a consequence of the May 2020 program. We still expect to realize that. As that base changes over time, we will keep updating and let people know what's going on and how it's related to May 2020. I mean, I don't know what else. Yes, it's going to be an interesting time. There's going to be a lot of changes. We will certainly be saving more than $130 million on SG&A this year. It's going to be san absolute requirement given the environment we're in. But a key component of our savings this year still is coming from May 2020.
Andy Wittmann:
Okay. Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. At this time, we come to the end of our question-and-answer session, and I'll turn the floor back over to Mike Monahan for closing comments.
Mike Monahan:
Thank you. That wraps up our first quarter conference call. This conference call and the associated discussion and slides will be available for replay on our website. Thanks for your time and participation today and best wishes for the rest of the day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.
Operator:
Greetings. Welcome to the Ecolab Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings Release Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. At this time, it is now my pleasure to introduce Mike Monahan, Senior Vice President, External Relations. Thank you, Mr. Monahan. You may now begin.
Michael Monahan:
Thank you. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Ecolab’s fourth quarter conference call. With me today is Doug Baker, Ecolab’s Chairman and CEO; Christophe Beck, our Chief Operating Officer; and Dan Schmechel, our Chief Financial Officer. A discussion of our results, along with our earnings release and the slides referencing the quarter’s results and our outlook, are available on Ecolab’s website at ecolab.com/investor. Please take a moment to read the cautionary statements in these materials, stating that this teleconference and the associated supplemental materials include estimates of future performance. These are forward-looking statements, and actual results could differ materially from those projected. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are discussed under the Risk Factors section in our most recent Form 10-K and in our posted materials. We also refer you to the supplemental diluted earnings per share information in the release. Starting with a brief overview of the results, pricing, new business gains and product innovation led fourth quarter acquisition adjusted fixed currency sales and operating income growth, which along with lower delivered product costs and cost efficiency actions, yielded the fourth quarter’s earnings increase. Looking at some highlights from the quarter and as discussed in our press release, acquisition adjusted fixed currency sales increased 1%, as the Industrial, Institutional and Other segments showed steady sales gains and more than offset the decline in Energy. Excluding the ChampionX business, Ecolab’s acquisition adjusted fixed currency sales rose 3%. Adjusted fixed currency operating income margins increased 60 basis points, continuing their steady improvement. The growth was led by double-digit gains in the Industrial and Energy segments. Adjusted earnings per share increased 8% to $1.66 and were up 10%, excluding the Healthcare recall. Progress continues on the separation of our ChampionX business. We continue to expect the transaction to be completed by mid-2020. Looking ahead, our work to drive sales momentum showed improvement in the fourth quarter, with ongoing business volumes up 1%, excluding ChampionX in the recall. We are driving new business wins, focusing on our innovative products, sales and service expertise and our value proposition of best results at the lowest total operating cost for customers. We also continue driving productivity and cost efficiencies. Our fourth quarter slides and earnings discussion, including earnings bridge for 2020, as shown, we expect strong operating earnings growth for the full-year up 12% to 15%. However, we will also face some headwinds in 2020, including $0.08 from the impact of lower interest rates on our pension plan, $0.04 from an unfavorable currency exchange and the impact from the coronavirus outbreak, which we estimate will cost us $0.05 in the first quarter, with the remainder of the year not estimated or forecasted at this time. Net of this, we look for 2020 adjusted diluted earnings per share to rise 9% to 12% to the $6.33 to $6.53 range, as improving volume and further pricing gains, along with cost efficiency benefits, more than offset the impact of business investments and the headwinds just mentioned. First quarter adjusted diluted earnings per share are expected to be in the $1.05 to $1.13 range, up 2% to 10%, including an estimated unfavorable $0.05 per share impact from the coronavirus outbreak. In summary, we expect improving top line momentum in our business in 2020. And along with our ongoing work to expand margins, we look for 9% to 12% adjusted earnings per share growth. We continue to make the right investments in the key areas of differentiation, including product innovation and digital investments to develop superior growth for this year and the future. And now, here’s Doug Baker with some comments.
Douglas Baker:
Thanks, Mike, and hello, good day to everybody. So I’m going to touch on three subjects
Michael Monahan:
Thanks, Doug. That concludes our formal remarks. Operator, would you please begin the question-and-answer period.
Operator:
Thank you. We’ll now be conducting a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. Our first question is from Tim Mulrooney with William Blair. Please proceed with your question.
Tim Mulrooney:
Yes. Good afternoon. So the ChampionX business, how much was it down in the fourth quarter? And what has the performance been through the first-half of the first quarter?
Douglas Baker:
Yes. The sales were down 6%, but operating income was pretty strong. And what we’ve really been focusing on in that business is making sure that we’re doing the right things from a margin and focusing on profitable growth. Importantly, if you break apart the Upstream business, you’ve got Wellchem, which is closer to the wellhead, you’ve got our traditional OFC business. And the OFC business, which is by far the larger of the two, continues to do quite well.
Tim Mulrooney:
Okay. Thanks, Doug. So organic growth at the RemainCo at Ecolab was up 3%, excluding ChampionX. I’m wondering if you could provide that for operating margin? Operating margin was up 60 basis points in total, I think, is what you said? But what would that have been up, excluding ChampionX?
Douglas Baker:
In fourth quarter?
Tim Mulrooney:
Yes. In the fourth quarter. Yes.
Douglas Baker:
Yes. We’re looking it, it’s up a little bit.
Tim Mulrooney:
Okay. All right.
Douglas Baker:
It’s also up about 60 basis points.
Tim Mulrooney:
Okay. So kind of a neutral impact?
Douglas Baker:
Well, it was, because you had the Healthcare recall, right, as well in the fourth quarter, which really impacts the RemainCo business negatively.
Tim Mulrooney:
Understood. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Christopher Parkinson with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your questions.
Christopher Parkinson:
Great. Thank you. In Industrial, chemical and power applications still appear a little sluggish on – just on a relative basis versus your best performance in light and F&B. Is this simply subject to macroeconomic factors? There’s something else in the [Multiple Speakers]
Douglas Baker:
Sorry, can you repeat that? Chris, can you repeat the question? It’s coming sort of muffled?
Christopher Parkinson:
Oh, I apologize. So in industrial, chemical and power applications still appear sluggish on a relative basis versus your performance in light and F&B. And I was just asking, is this simply subject to macro factors, or is there something else on the new product front we should be looking for as we head into 2020?
Douglas Baker:
Mike?
Michael Monahan:
Chris, what I’m hearing is, you’re asking why was chemical and power softer for water?
Christopher Parkinson:
Yes. I mean, what you can do – is it macro – is it primarily macro that needs to drive the improvements, or is there something else you can do to improve those two subsegment performance?
Michael Monahan:
Power primarily reflected the shift towards natural gas in the U.S., where natural gas requires less than coal. And the chemical, I think, was probably somewhat industry trends and just, I think, timing of some new business.
Douglas Baker:
There’s nothing fundamental going on in the heavy business other than the big transition we just talked about. And clearly, Industrial, right, performance levels broadly are going to have some impact on that business, too.
Christopher Parkinson:
Got it. And then just as a quick follow-up. When you talk about enterprise selling efforts within F&B and light water, and then we think about your presence in pest elimination, can you just comment as to which geographies are driving these benefits? And whether or not you will still need to broaden your global breadth on the latter, i.e., pest elimination to replicate these benefits assuming the bulk of the momentum is driving in the U.S.?Thank you.
Douglas Baker:
Yes. We’ve combined a lot of the way we go to market in the food and beverage space, combining the water business and the F&B traditional business, and then often bring in pest, too. The F&B and water businesses are truly global. The pest business is not as global. We have good presence in Europe, obviously, cover all in North America, and then we have a few businesses in Asia and Latin America, but do not cover all those markets. With that said, we’ve had a lot of success driving, if you will, enterprise selling efforts, particularly in food and beverage where we focus first. Pest comes along quite frequently. But the pest business gains are going to be most frequently found in Europe and U.S. just because that’s our large presence.
Christopher Parkinson:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.
David Begleiter:
Thank you. Doug, looking at Institutional, the division, not the entire segment. What do you think of that can grow in 2020? And what’s the progression from early to late over the course of the year?
Douglas Baker:
Yes. So when we talk about Institutional last, we talked about – we expected at the end at a run rate of 4-ish-percent. And if you look at underlying sales, particularly in the U.S., we got very close to that number, if you round up. The expectation for that business is that, we’ll continue to strengthen sequentially. What it’s going to report as going to be a little different, given coronavirus and some of the other impacts, but the underlying business we expect to continue to strengthen, we expect the year to be in the 4-ish range, which means can be a little less than the beginning and probably a little more at the end, as we go throughout the year. We, of course, are challenging the team to do better than that. But I would say, I think, the fundamentals in the Institutional business are getting better. We wish you’re getting better faster, but that’s always our perspective. But they are moving in the right direction.
David Begleiter:
And, Doug, in the same bent, I think, you discussed any competitive dynamics vis-à-vis diversity over the last few months here?
Douglas Baker:
No, there hasn’t been any big change or activity in the last few months. I think, they’re still – they’ve had some change in their business. We haven’t seen any difference in direction as a consequence of that. So no, I wouldn’t really say, I don’t think that’s going to be really the fundamental change for us.
David Begleiter:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your questions.
Jeremy Rosenberg:
Hi, this is Jeremy Rosenberg for Vincent. Thanks for taking my question. I want to start off on the cost savings program. I think it’s $325 million, you guys did $80 million of that last year. I’m just wondering how much incremental you have baked in for 2020? And then I do have a follow-up?
Douglas Baker:
We have $130 million incremental baked into the plan this year.
Jeremy Rosenberg:
Okay, got it. And then just thinking about free cash flow for the year. I mean, just your thoughts on the outlook, I mean, any thoughts on working capital and CapEx? And thank you.
Douglas Baker:
Yes. I’ll hand that to Dan.
Daniel Schmechel:
Yes, thank you. So maybe we’ll just start with a quick recap of 2019, as Doug referenced upfront? We had very strong cash flow throughout the year and finished the year strong as well. So we had a voluntary pension contribution of $120 million in 2019. And if you exclude that, our free cash flow was up about 20%, with 109% conversion rate. So behind that number was improvement in inventory. We commented during the year that one of the consequences of having the supply chain so focused on the SAP Go-Live was maybe not pushing quite as hard as inventory reductions and, in fact, building some finished good inventory. So looking ahead to 2020, I guess, I would steer you toward what – the – fundamentally the way is that we think about it, which is that we will continue to see very strong cash flow and strong cash flow conversion, which we anticipate to be in the range again of 100%, maybe slightly north of the reported net income. So 2020 will be another strong free cash flow year for Ecolab.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
John McNulty:
Yes. Thanks for taking my question. With regard to the areas that you’re starting to see kind of the increased volume from the shift maybe a little bit away from price and more into the volume front. Can you articulate a little bit as to which areas you’re seeing the kind of early traction, the early wins and how we should be thinking about how that progress throughout the year?
Douglas Baker:
Yes. John, I’ll just add. I mean, we have Christophe answer this. I mean, Christophe early got the team very focused on this shift middle of last year, which is why you started seeing the results in Q3, Q4, and it was a very important shift for us. We know pricing, ultimately, given inflation and other things is going to carry you forever and we had to get volume growth moving again. We saw a 50-point improvement in volume. If you adjust for the Healthcare recall from third quarter to fourth, we expect to see more. Christophe, I’ll ask you to give a little color on where we expect to see it.
Christophe Beck:
Thank you, Doug. Yes, it’s been a very collective effort that started to become really strong in mid of 2019, which has really generated itself record new business generation during the second-half of 2019. We’ve seen that mostly in the Industrial businesses at the beginning, where we had so strong momentum and that’s why you’ve seen as well, water and F&B have been up 5% as well, life science 13% as well. And then progressively as well moving towards Institutional, Specialty, pest that will as well lead to better results going forward in 2020.
John McNulty:
Great. Thanks for the color on that. And then just with the SAP system up in North America, any insight into new targets opportunities, whether it’s on the working capital front on efficiency measures, anything notable with the early start of that?
Douglas Baker:
Yes. I would expect ultimately all those things will be targeted will get after. What we’ve seen early is, I would say, we recently had a review with our Institutional business. And they’re already talking about the transparency that they have – that they didn’t have before in terms of what’s happening in specific customers or specific categories. They can see their shipment cost much more clearly and understand, I would say, ramifications of shipping policies, how you might tweak those and enhance, if you will, our ability to both meet customer needs, but do it cheaper. So I think there’s going to be a multitude of areas. Putting these in, you’re glad, it’s like a lifetime event, because nobody do it twice. But we’re very happy we’re through it and now starting to bear fruit.
John McNulty:
Great. Thanks very much for the color.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Gary Bisbee with Bank of America. Please proceed with your questions.
Gary Bisbee:
Hey, guys. I guess just the first one. Can you give a little more color on where you expect in the business to see the coronavirus impact? I think in the prepared remarks you called out water and pest, but is it broader than that? And anymore color on how much it’s impacting your ability to produce product versus sort of customer pull demand at this point, I realized it’s fluid, but any color would be helpful?
Douglas Baker:
Yes. I’ll just – let me just state on coronavirus. I think, there’s three levels of impact and we’ll answer your specific question. I’ll have Christophe do it after I go through this. There’s certainly market demand in China, where that’s the principle ground zero right now of coronavirus. So market demand is an impact. So the secondary impacts are really what’s it going to do to global supply chains? Now, it won’t impact our global supply chain. We have plants in China, but they’re really for China consumption. We don’t use it as an export market per se, nor do we rely on specific parts from China for production and other regions around the world. So it is a big worry, I think, broadly about its impact on supply chains. It’s not a specific worry for us. But then the third impact is, what’s it do ultimately to global GDP? And that really is a question of does it spread? How long is it and if it doesn’t spread even how deep and long does it last in China? And there are all kinds of scenarios. The traditional scenario is burnout. Fairly early like in March, April, as weather gets warmer, but it’s very hard to predict exactly what any of these are going to do. And if it does spread, obviously, you’ve got additional impacts. And if it goes deeper, say into June, and you really have this outage for other supply chain, it’s going to have broader impacts. For us, the impacts have been really China specific, I would expect them to remain China specific. If it turns into global GDP, we’re probably going to be not as impacted as other companies. But, obviously, if global GDP goes down, it’s not healthy for any company, including ours. So with that, I’ll turn it to Christophe to talk about the impacts we’re seeing right now.
Christophe Beck:
Yes. Just say two things. So on one hand, we are in the infection prevention business. So customers have a natural tendency to come to us for help. But that’s a little part of the business to help them to prevent the spread of infection. So long-term, it’s going to be a good thing. And we’re strengthening the relationship with customers locally and globally on that, but there’s not much we can do as well for restaurants and plants that are closed as well in the meantime. So kind of a short-term negative impact, but long-term, probably something, which is positive for our relationship with customers.
Gary Bisbee:
Great, thanks. And then just a follow-up, a couple of quarters in a row, you’ve – and we’ve seen this in the past, obviously, you talked about bookings momentum building, we don’t see a lot of it in the organic constant currency growth rates yet. How do we think about – or how long it takes to onboard new businesses? Is it very different from business to business? And how quickly should that start to flow through to revenue? Thank you.
Christophe Beck:
Yes. Good question. This is Christophe. So it depends, obviously, business by business, some are much simpler. So the more institutions or restaurants like type of business, so goes quicker, it can be done. So in a few months, usually, we think a quarter or two to get that rolled out. We talk about chains, usually. So when we talk about the regional chain, a global chain, well, that can’t happen overnight, but it’s kind of a quarter or two. When we think about Industrial businesses, so it’s plants, where much more engineering work needs to be done. That’s usually between two and three quarters.
Gary Bisbee:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question is coming from the line of Scott Schneeberger with Oppenheimer. Please proceed with your questions.
Scott Schneeberger:
Thanks. Good afternoon. Just start real quick on a follow-up on Gary’s question about, I think, in the handoff, Doug, for me to Christophe. You covered just it’s in – on coronavirus, it’s in China and then those three categories. But was it consistent with what you have in the press release of just water and pest, or is it more broad-based? Is it like $0.04, $0.01, kind of curious by segment? Thanks. And then, I have a follow-up.
Douglas Baker:
Yes. No, I would say the specific impacts in industries, we’re seeing it clearly. I mean, it’s – it all makes sense, right? Hospitality, travel is way down in China, hotels are clearly impacted, food Service is clearly impacted. You have a number of chains that have shutdown half of their units in many instances. We have then, obviously, industrial production, which you’re speaking to, which has also been curtailed. I mean, they extended China New Year for at least another week and they’ve talked another week. It’s really different by province. You have a number of plants that are working to start back up some have. All of ours are back up and producing at this point in time, but they were down for several weeks and others were as well, and some take longer to ramp up. Then the closer you are to widespread outbreak centers, the longer it’s going to take for them to start up production.
Scott Schneeberger:
Thanks. I appreciate that. And then you’ve been exiting in institutional, exiting lower-margin businesses recently. And just want to get a feel on what that impact might be early in 2020? And where you stand on the curve of optimizing the portfolio from a margin perspective.
Douglas Baker:
Yes. So I’m going to give the answer that I’m going to go. The lion’s share that is behind us. There’s a little dribs and drabs coming in, but what we’re done talking about it. Fundamentally, we’ve seen the impact. We’re moving on. We start. We will expect like we saw in fourth, continued improvement sequentially moving forward. I would say it’s much more in the normal range of what we have. We have some attrition every day. It’s small. But we have some and this is much more in that normal keeping at this point in time, especially as we go throughout the year.
Scott Schneeberger:
Okay. Thanks very much.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from the line of PJ Juvekar with Citi. Please proceed with your questions.
Eric Petrie:
Hi, good morning, Doug. This is Eric Petrie on for PJ. As you look at your share repurchases in 2019, it’s been the lowest level since any year, I think, since 2013. So how do you see buyback shaping up into this year and going forward versus them in a pipeline?
Douglas Baker:
Yes. A lot of the impact last year was the consequences of being out of the market because of the negotiations around the subsequent announced RMT. And so we were blacked out for periods of time that were unusual. And as a consequence, we can really talk about this in third quarter or others, right? We weren’t able to buy, because we’re negotiating. With that said, I’ll hand it to Dan to talk about forward view.
Daniel Schmechel:
Yes. Sure. So one of the consequences of the split transaction prior to the RMT with Apergy is that, we will be out of the market essentially for the first-half of the year. We have said before, I guess, what I’ll say again, that, when we look forward beginning in the second-half of the year and look at the cash dividend payment or cash payment that we will receive as part of the Apergy and at RMT, it will evaluate at that time, whether or not the better uses of free cash flow or per share repurchase or debt retirement. Our cash flow priorities, importantly, will remain consistent. And I guess at this point, looking so far forward, I’m comfortable saying that we will refer to shares at least a level to offset the impact of our share-based compensation plans and at the margin, this will be a decision that we make when we get clarity on the market and what the best opportunities are.
Eric Petrie:
Okay. Secondly, at Investor Day, you talked about roughly 13% of sales being digitally enabled in Industrial of 1% and Institutional. How do you expect that to grow in 2020? Or do you have a target step up in mind per annum, or how do you view that internally?
Christophe Beck:
So maybe to give you just some colors, we don’t have formal numbers that we share usually we start. But based on what we said at Investor Day, so the numbers are still right. What’s good is that, those sales, which are sort of digitally enabled, we have two categories
Eric Petrie:
Helpful. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of John Roberts with UBS. Please proceed with your question.
John Roberts:
Thank you. What was the root cause of the plant contamination in Europe? And what fixes have been put in place to keep that from happening again?
Douglas Baker:
Yes. It was a waterborne bacteria that ended up creating a biofilm in parts of the plant. And biofilms are, we make a business of cleaning up biofilms and other facilities. So the good news is, we had the technology and know-how to go clean this. And the challenge with biofilms is, they don’t leak out bacteria evenly, it’s more sporadic, and so you end up with some batches contaminated, some not. When they are contaminated, the biofilm itself sort of envelops the bacteria, which normally would be killed by the product, but in some cases, is protected. So they’re a bit gnarly. So we’ve done a number of things. One, we believe to know what the source is and it was a one-time impact of, in part, moved equipment that occurred just before we bought the business. But with that said, we know this is a waterborne illness. It’s naturally occurring and found in many water sources. So we have significantly opt the capability we have to ensure that the inbound water is absolutely bacteria-free. We’ve gone through the plant and redesigned a number of dead end areas. We’re going to continue to do that. We have new aggressive protocol put in place that, frankly, is much more aggressive than we think we need. But we’re going to make a new mistake going forward. So we’ve taken a number of steps. The team has been all over this. We’re back producing, We’re through the 80% of previous production volume heading to 90% and then then over 100%. So I think the team has done a good job getting this back up running and contamination free.
John Roberts:
And then healthcare sales were up 3%, excluding the recall. Does that business grow above 3% near-term, now that the plan is fixed, or did you lose some business that will cause you to grow below 3% here for a little while before you come back?
Douglas Baker:
Yes. In the nature, I mean, this occurred in Europe. And so there’s still going to be impact in the first quarter, because December is part of our international first quarter. And so, we’re through it, but that impact is still going to hit part of Q1, but not nearly at the same level as it did in the fourth quarter. That is, by the way, in our forecast. So it’s not any new news that’s coming down the pike. Yes, I would expect there’s going to be a pipeline refill that will occur. Certainly, we’re going to go annualize against the recall event in the fourth quarter. You would expect to see larger sales as a consequence to that. At this point in time, I can’t give you blow-by-blow if we lost any business as a consequence of this. It’s a real possibility, but something that we are going to certainly work to earn back if that’s, in fact, true. We do not have any numbers on that at this point in time, and I don’t believe that’s going to be the main story.
John Roberts:
Yes. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.
Jeff Zekauskas:
Thanks very much. Your Energy business had revenues that fell in the fourth quarter, I think, by $32 million and your operating profits were up 11%. How’d you do that? How did profitability improve so much?
Douglas Baker:
Yes. Well, there has been a lot of work on cost savings, a lot of work on formulation work, i.e., how do you produce efficacious formulas, at least at equivalent value, not better at lower raw material input costs. We talked about this work in previous calls. When you’re on the high trajectory growth rate, you’re – all you’re really working do is meet demand. We’ve had a period of time here, where we’ve been able to reformulate lower, if you will, the cost of goods kind of on a permanent basis. And I think the team has done a very good job doing that. It allows them to compete in a much tougher environment effectively. So a lot of the work there. There has been a big focus on specific businesses, where we were upside down in cost. There’s some parts of the North America OFC business that we’re not going to work from a math standpoint, they’ve taken out head retooled work made sure that we can meet customer needs in a more efficient way. It’s all those things combined, we expect even moving forward in the first quarter. We’re going to have probably sales decline in significant OI growth in that business. So the OI EBITDA trajectory of that business is quite favorable. Ultimately, I don’t believe the oil story. It’s like the last spike we’ve ever seen in oil, kind of hard to call a 80-year cyclical business, no longer cyclical. I just don’t fundamentally believe that and I think the business is poised well going forward.
Jeff Zekauskas:
Okay. Your incremental gross margin was over 100% in the fourth quarter. Was that mostly price or raw materials, or how would you analyze sharp improvement in your incremental returns?
Douglas Baker:
Yes. I mean, it’s – it was a combination of two things. I mean, we continue to secure price and we’ll continue to secure price going forward. And we also had softening of the raw material markets, which we had forecast as well. So when you get the combination of those, you end up with happy news in your gross profit line.
Jeff Zekauskas:
Great. Thank you so much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Rosemarie Morbelli with G. Research. Please proceed with your question.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Doug, when we look at the top line growth exclude adjusted for acquisition, so we have water, up 5; food and beverage, 5; life sciences, 13, et cetera. Were there anything specific in those particular type of growth rate? Can we put that 2% price in all of them, or was it mostly demand? And do you expect the demand at this level to continue in 2020?
Douglas Baker:
Yes. I’ll add a comment, then I’ll ask Christophe to follow on with some additional specifics. I would say that, our assumption for economic growth in 2020 is that it’s positive, but below 2019 levels. But that’s good enough for us, we believe, to end up with better sales growth in 2020 than we saw in 2019. So it’s positive, not global recession, but not at the 2019 level. And the reason we feel that way is, one, the strong new business results that we had in Q3, Q4, we talked about the lag. It takes a while for that business to show up. We’re starting to see it. We started to see a bit of it in fourth quarter. We expect to see more of it in Q1. The hardest thing is going to be looking beyond coronavirus. We’ll do everything we can to be clear there. But obviously, that’s going to impact Q1 for sure. Q2, likely, I just – it’s hard to predict. But if we look at sales ex China, right, in virtually every category, our expectation is that the business strengthens. And the reason I say ex China is, it’s just trying to take away the unknown of coronavirus out of the equation. And it is because of the new business efforts. And I’ll throw it to Christophe, if you want to add any additional color.
Christophe Beck:
Hello, Rosemarie. This is Christophe. So trying to build on that, so the demand is not extremely strong as such from customers. But – and I’m excluding the disease – so the virus impact that Doug has covered in here. It’s mostly so internally-driven. We have offering so far our customers that are very unique. You were talking about, life science, for instance. Many of our customers are mostly cleaning with soap and water. Well, the technology, the chemistry, the service, the expertise that we bring to those customers is absolutely unique and helps them so to be operating in much safer environment and to do that at a much lower total operating cost, as well. Beyond that, we have very unique corporate account management structure. As you know, we have this food and beverage global solution, corporate account organization that is really bringing together water on hygiene in a very unique place. Most of the competition can’t do that. So we in a very unique position to offer that to our customers. And ultimately, what’s also interesting is that, well, we do that in a way that gives them a high return. So it’s not a cost question. It’s a total cost. The more they invest with us, the better off they are with their own operations. And that’s driving a lot of demand of what we’re doing. So ultimately, that’s – what we’ve been doing the last two or three years, Rosemarie.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
Okay, thanks. And then following up quickly on pricing. You had 2% growth rate overall this year, should we anticipate that next year will not be anymore than 1%, as raw materials are coming down and eventually there is going to be some kind of a balance between the two?
Douglas Baker:
Yes. What, Rosemarie, it’s going to be what we round above the two this year, and we’ll probably round two or two in 2020. It’s not going to be reported as a vast difference, but clearly, our – we expect pricing to be positive in 2020 at a lower rate than 2019, but not dramatically.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
All right. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies. Please proceed with your questions.
Laurence Alexander:
Good afternoon. Just want to follow-up on one of the earlier coronavirus discussions. Can you put this in longer-term context when you look at other outbreaks that Ecolab has had experience with? What does it take for it to turn into a sustainable change in Ecolab’s brand position in the affected region or longer-term growth rate as opposed to a blip in operations?
Douglas Baker:
Well, the past ones, I mean, be it H1N1 or SARS, I mean, SARS is probably the one most well-known. SARS is a different animal. It was less contagious, but more deadly, probably like five times more deadly, but easier to contain, because it’s really the – how easy is it to transmit to other people is the number one factor and how easy or difficult is it to contain. And unfortunately, this coronavirus appears pretty effective at being transmitted from one host to another to use, like the science term. I would say this. I think, our guess from the literature we’ve read from our scientists’ viewpoint is, I – coronavirus is whatever happens during this season is likely going to reoccur in other seasons, much like you see the flu and others. And I don’t know if this is going to have a fundamentally huge change in people’s perception of us. I think if you go to China, we’re viewed as the food safety, antimicrobial experts in that country. We’ve had very good relations and worked very well in coordination with the Chinese government to China, FDA, et cetera, for a number of years. We’ll continue that work. Our customers rely on us in these instances. I think, if you go back to H1N1, that was really the advent of all the hand sanitizers you see in lobbies of all commercial buildings before that it didn’t exist. So it clearly changed the demand permanently for hand sanitizing products, et cetera. You may well see that kind of outcome as a consequence of the coronavirus, too, that’s harder to predict.
Laurence Alexander:
And then there has been some discussion in China of moving from the open markets to more industrial food production, Would that provide sort of a faster growth ramp for Ecolab in China, or should we think of it as not really affecting your growth rate?
Douglas Baker:
Certainly, I think there’ll probably be some changes in the way they think about the live markets going forward. And as – I mean, the food has been shifting there to more prepared, more production food for quite a while. And that trend, I would agree with you. This is going to be more an accelerant of that trend. It’s certainly not going to slow that trend down. That’s been a very positive trend for us, because when you’re doing large scale food, you need to make sure that your food safety is really good, or you’re going to poison a lot of people at one time. And so all that move has been quite positive for us. We’ve always expected that to continue going forward. And I don’t think coronavirus going to do anything, but accelerate that. But that, again, is hard to predict.
Laurence Alexander:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mike Harrison with Seaport Global. Please proceed with your questions.
Michael Harrison:
Good afternoon. I was wondering in the specialty business, you noted in some of your prepared remarks, the strength in the food retail portion of that business. You mentioned new accounts, as well as some new program introductions. Can you give us a little bit more detail as to what has been driving the strength in that food retail business?
Douglas Baker:
Yes. That was one of the earlier adopters of digital. So clearly, our program, which is now coupled with digital allow us even more transparency and better communication with customers. So they have more visibility as to what’s going on in their stores has helped. We secured a number of new chains in that business as we have in a number of businesses. That’s always been a little bit of an elephant hunting game. So sales can – sales growth, it grows every quarter. It will grow faster, obviously, after you land a couple of these large chains, that’s the situation we’re in. But the truth is, we have a number of those stories. Pest has had a lot of success securing new business, Institutional had a very good fourth quarter in terms of net new business gains, and we continue to a strong performance in F&B and the water business as well. So it’s across the Board. I’d say, the Industrial side was quicker off the mark. But now we see it across the businesses the success in net new business wins, including in FRS.
Michael Harrison:
Right. And then wanted to ask abut the Energy business. You mentioned some increase in international sales that were driving the downstream business. Did you get some new wins there that should end up meaning sustainable growth for the Downstream International business, or was there something maybe more temporary going on that helped you this quarter?
Douglas Baker:
Yes, nothing notable. I would say, it’s probably better execution in the quarter, but no fundamental change. That business is focused on new business. We’ve got great programs there. And we believe increased focus on execution is going to pay dividends there as well.
Michael Harrison:
All right. Thanks very much.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is coming from the line of Shlomo Rosenbaum with Stifel. Please proceed with your questions.
Shlomo Rosenbaum:
Hi, thank you for taking my questions. Hey, Doug, the – part of the energy business that you’re going to retain in the Downstream business was up kind of moderately and understand that it’s generally more of a mid single-digit revenue growth business. Can you talk about what was going on in the quarter? And when you do see variations in that business, what part – what percentage of that business is really kind of very steady and what part kind of moves around?
Douglas Baker:
Yes. I mean, the fundamentals of that business are quite similar to the rest of our water business, to be honest, which is it’s an annuity type business with deep embedded service and capability around technology and understanding the types of crude that are being refined what needs to be done, how do you treat the water, the captive water in boiling and cooling, et cetera. With that said, there’s also an additive component to that business. So much like circle the customer execution and other industries, we’ve also done the same in that industry for a number of years. And so the additives can be a little more up and down based on consumption and/or seasonality. The fourth quarter for that business, sales were around the 3% rate. They were fairly solid. It was the best growth that we had all year in that business. So I would say to your point, yes, we do view this as a mid single-digit type business going forward. It treats not only fuel refinery businesses, but also petrochemical plants. And long-term for sustainability, we are going to need plastics in derivative-type lightweighting products to enable fuel efficiency and other things. I mean, that’s what the world is counting on. I know plastics are under a lot of pressure. There are good plastics and bad plastics. And we make sure we don’t throw out the good plastics or the bad plastics.
Shlomo Rosenbaum:
Okay, great. And just as a follow-up, just on the pest business, it’s generally been kind of 6% to 8% came in at 5%. I know there’s some timing of new business. Is there anything to call out over there, or just kind of that’s kind of the ebbs and flows of the business in general?
Douglas Baker:
Yes. No, honestly, we’re feeling pretty good about pest. We don’t like the 5%. But we like the fact that it was coupled with an incredibly strong new business when portfolio in Q4, too. So we expect that business to accelerate.
Shlomo Rosenbaum:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Mr. Monahan, there are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the floor back over to you for closing remarks.
Michael Monahan:
Thank you. That wraps up our fourth quarter conference call. This conference call and the associated discussion slides will be available for replay on our website. Thank you for your time and participation. Our best wishes for the rest of the day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This concludes today’s teleconference. You may now disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day.
Operator:
Greetings, and welcome to the Ecolab's Third Quarter 2019 Earnings Release Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce Mike Monahan, Senior Vice President, External Relations. Mr. Monahan, you may now begin.
Mike Monahan:
Thank you. Hello everyone and welcome to Ecolab's third quarter conference call. With me today is Doug Baker, Ecolab's Chairman and CEO; and Dan Schmechel, our CFO. A discussion of our results, along with our earnings release and the slides referencing the quarter's results and our outlook are available on Ecolab's website at ecolab.com/investor. Please take a moment to read the cautionary statements in these materials, stating that this teleconference and the associated supplemental materials include estimates of future performance. These are forward-looking statements, and actual results could differ materially from those projected. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are discussed under Risk Factors section in our most recent Form 10-K and in our posted materials. We also refer you to the supplemental diluted earnings per share information in the release. Starting with a brief overview of the results, pricing, new business gains and product innovation led the third quarter sales, and along with productivity improvements and cost efficiency actions yielded the third quarter's 12% adjusted diluted earnings per share increase. Moving on to some highlights from the quarter and as discussed in our press release, acquisition adjusted FX currency sales increased 2% as the institutional and Other segments shows steady sales gains and more than offset a modest decline in energy and moderately softer industrial markets. Adjusted fixed currency operating income margins increased to 140 basis points, consuming their steady improvement. Income growth was led by double digit gains in the Industrial and Energy segments. Adjusted earnings per share increased 12% to a $1.71, representing another quarter of double digit adjusted EPS growth. Currency translation was an unfavorable $0.03 per share in the quarter. Progress continues on the spin-off of our upstream energy business, we continue to expect a spin-off to be completed by mid-2020. Looking ahead, we will begin rebuilding our sales momentum in the fourth quarter as the moderated delivered product costs environment has enabled us to re prioritize new business development as our sales team's primary objective. As always, we will drive our new business wins by focusing on our innovative products, sales and service expertise, and our value proposition of best results and the lowest total operating costs for customers. We will also continue driving productivity and cost efficiencies. Our digital investments are developing well and we look for them to add new actionable insights for customers to improve their operations, increase our sales force effectiveness, and enhance our market differentiation. We narrowed our forecast with the full year 2019. We now look for adjusted diluted earnings per share to rise 10% to 12% to the $5.80 to $5.90 range, as price and volume gains and cost efficiency benefits more than offset the impact of moderated delivered product cost increases and business investments. Currency translation deteriorated $0.02 and is now expected to be an unfavorable $0.13 per share in 2019. Fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share are expected to be in the $1.64 to $1.74 range of 6% to 13%. In summary, we expect good fourth quarter earnings momentum in 2019 to more than offset moderated delivered product costs and unfavorable currencies exchange, and along with cost efficiency actions yield 10% to 12% adjusted earnings per share growth. As we continue to make right investments in key areas of differentiation including product innovation and digital investments, we expect to develop superior growth this year and for the future. And now, here's Doug Baker with some comments.
Doug Baker:
Thanks Mike. So, I'll this offer my take on the quarter. There's a lot to likes in this quarter and there are some areas that we're addressing. The good news is as we leave the third quarter moving into the fourth quarter, we're in a very good position in this year successfully, while I'd say importantly building momentum as we head into 2020. So, the positive in Q3 will certainly 12% adjusted EPF growth. We have very strong cash flow with a Q3 conversion rate of over 100% as we reduce inventories pulled our supply chain SAP roll out in North America, year-to-date cash flow is up 29%. We also continued our strong pricing helping drive the 140 basis points OI margin improvement Mike reference. Our team is executed really well across the board. They continued to drive the business performance improvements. They're also managing in North American SAP rollout, which has moved from supply chain into the commercial arena and they're also managing a spin of upstream all this they're doing while improving the business. So, we also talked that we've shifted our sales team priority focus, as raw materials stabilized and some market has softened. We've moved our field team focus from what I call pricing and growth to growth and pricing, meaning growth is primary. That's the only thing we asked him to do, but you always have to have something as number one priority and right now we believe it's smart to have growth as the number one priority. So, this shift moves this team back to what I would call their natural state, and we're seeing strong results in all of our leading indicators. Net business is accelerating. It was virtually flat year-on-year in Q1, up 10% in Q2, was up over 40% in Q3. We really need roughly 15% year-on-year to continue the growth trajectory that we'd like to see. At the same time while we're accelerating our net new business, the team has continued to deliver on pricing which excluding upstream in Q3 was up 3%; and very importantly, our customer retention has improved throughout the year as well, so our pricing efforts are not leading to declining retention trends. Finally, I feel very good about our priorities, our plan and the execution. So, we got on cost early, we remain on cost, we've got a great job securing the needed pricing as we've discussed, we've also shifted successfully to driving new business; and as I mentioned are starting to see those results while continuing to secure pricing. We're also driving the critical investment for sustained advantage like digital, like SAP, like people development and like the upstream spin. So now, let me turn it back to Mike, who will open up the Q&A session.
Mike Monahan:
That concludes our formal remarks. Operator, would you please begin the question-and-answer period.
Operator:
Yes, thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. [Operator instructions] And our first question comes from the line of John McNulty with BMO capital Markets.
John McNulty:
With regard to the reprioritization around new business development versus pricing kind of moving the volumes sort of front of I guess of the queue. I guess, how quickly can you get that shift to start really working on the volumes? And I guess also, how should we be thinking about what this means for price mix as we look to 2020 as well?
Doug Baker:
Yes, it's a little different by business. I would say in industrial, there's usually a couple quarter lag between securing significant new business and when you start seeing it show up in the P&L. Institutional, that lag can be a bit shorter call it a quarter and a half. So, there's always a takes a little time for what I would call accelerating new business trends to show up in the growth trend and make a difference. We would expect to have one I think historically good pricing. Next year, we're going to enter the year with very good carry in momentum. We will continue to price in this environment. It's just going to be and we just -- I mean, honestly, it's about as simple as it sounds. We were late getting on pricing. Sales teams hate doing pricing. It's a contentious discussion with customers who are they who they're trying to be like us. And so, this is always a hard thing to get sales teams excited and motivated around and you've got to make a call. We rang the bell little over a year ago on pricing. They started making very material difference as a consequence of that, and we now know given the situation where they can raw markets is broadly economically, it's smart to get on volume. So, I think what you'll see is an increasing volume trend going throughout the year, but we'll take a few quarters for you to see material change.
John McNulty:
And then maybe just a quick question on the Industrial segment and the overall growth actually looked relatively robust considering some of the macro back drop. I guess can you speak to the condition of the end markets that you're seeing and, and what that means in terms of some shared gain that it looks like you may have been picking up?
Doug Baker:
Yes, I think our industrial business I would agree, I think it's fared pretty well. I mean, it shows up for instance water looking like it went from an eight to five we really probably think it went down two points and this is several factors. I mean, certainly some markets are softening but it's not stopping across the board in the industrial areas. There is a number of places where it's still quite strong and we see those areas. So the F&B business, chemical plants, commercial buildings, life sciences is example those markets are really an impacted whereas steel, auto and paper which I think there is a lot of noise around and we would also say we see some of that softening there as well. But with that said, I think we view this market. I mean if this is a conditions wherein we think ultimately our new business efforts will overcome a lot of that song thing maybe not 100% of it, but we can still grow it a very good clip in that business and obviously if it gets dramatically worse then we'll have to update our forecast, but that's not what we see right now.
Operator:
The next question is coming from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.
Vincent Andrews:
Maybe, if you could just help us unpack the volume performance as we strip out energy and then the low margin businesses you exited, if you can just kind of walk us through the segments and where you were happier where you think there's more work to be done?
Doug Baker:
We would -- I don't I've ever had a quarter where I thought I was happy with our volume growth. And this would include it, meaning we have aggressive targets that we go chase. But if you unpack it your take away, paper was down this year and in the Energy segment, we probably lost a point in total. So without those, we will be up a point, but that's not where we need to be, which is really why sort of this shift in emphasis. We have very good trends in pricing and other things. We know we're going to have good carry-in. We've got to get moving on adding even more share. I would point out against every one of our major competitors, we track wins and losses we've gained share against all of them, but you've got to go on a really major share gain strategy when you have softening markets.
Vincent Andrews:
If I could, just as a follow-up to that into the pricing pivot, are there specific new business initiatives that you're putting in place, is it product-specific or is it digital new technology, ERP system driven? Or is it just basic blocking and tackling?
Doug Baker:
Well, we all use innovation as one of the primary, if you will, means to the end i.e. we bring additional benefit to customers, new and our existing and that's absolutely critical to equipping the sales team to have good success in new business. So certainly, the new digital efforts that we've had are starting to bear fruit. We're seeing it in a number of accounts, in QSR where we really led in the Institutional side, we're seeing it in food retail as well and water was one of the early adopters and we've seen very strong efforts around there as well. But with that said, there has been clear new target established for the last four months of the year, what we're trying to achieve, what kind of momentum we're trying to drive. I think the sales teams love these initiatives, they're all over it it's clearly tracked, clearly monitored it's led by Christophe Beck, our COO and that initiative will also, we're quite confident, help us gain volume momentum as well as pricing momentum.
Operator:
Next question is coming from the line of Gary Bisbee with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please proceed with your questions. Mr. Bisbee, your line is open for questions. Moving on, our next question will be coming from the line of Manav Patnaik with Barclays.
Manav Patnaik:
My first question is just also just to follow up quickly on the pricing shift. What changed between I guess today and the prior quarter, is it just any backdrop that the -- weakness in the Industrial side or was it just -- may be just a little bit more color on why the decision was made today?
Doug Baker:
Well, it wasn't really made today. It was obviously made several months ago. And as we start moving this shift, I mean you got to -- it takes little time to enact it. This is like a natural occurrence for us. Sooner or later, our natural bent is growth then pricing, and so what I would call, it was a call to get back to natural state versus sort of a -- abnormal state where it's pricing over growth. And as we look at the situation we saw a rise, if you will, stabilizing in terms of market, in fact, we had a little daylight in Q3 year-on-year i.e. raws were slightly cheaper this year than they were a year ago in total when we net everything out And so that condition certainly, you know, what's we had forecast, we started to see that, in fact, it was true. And it takes a little time for these shifts to start bearing fruit. So you got to be a little bit ahead of the curve not behind it. There is no doubt that all the pricing actions that are in flight are going to be completed by the sales team. We continue to monitor that I'd point out that we had still strong new business growth, even when pricing was in front. So we'll continue to have good pricing effort even when growth is in front.
Manav Patnaik:
And then just your comments on the net new business, the acceleration from 0 to 10 to 40, I guess in the fourth quarter or broadly just some thoughts on how we should interpret that into growth next year because I think you said all you need is really 15%. So that 40% sounds a stand-out there?
Doug Baker:
Yes. And it's not a relatively small number right in terms of the whole P&L. So, I mean if I wanted to give you a very simplistic example if you've got a business in a $100 million and it loses 5% a year in attrition. Then if you want to grow at 7% you're going to need to add 12% new business. Somehow let's pretend it only comes from net new gains in corporate accounts, we have some businesses like that. Kay, would be like that really the only sell corporate accounts, well as you go through this, you start doing the math that 12%, it's got to continue to grow each year, roughly a 15% rate, if you want to continue to grow at 7%. And so that's how we look at this and so we measure this very closely, we like to be more around the 20% rate, so that we have some wiggle room if you will, in our numbers and those are the types of things that we look at because they're good forward indicators for us. But as I mentioned, I think John had asked the question. It doesn't, it's not like an immediate show-up. So if we land, a new contract, we will count it as new business that day, it may take us three to four months to fully install and to realize that volume, but at the same time we are counting losses, the day it's announced, even though it may take four to six months for that loss to fully see itself into our P&L, and we think that's important. And so really this whole number is really a measure of our of our large wins and losses, principally in corporate accounts.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Gary Bisbee with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Gary Bisbee:
Okay. Let's see if this works this time, I guess, Doug, one more cut at the revenue. There is a number of areas where the comps were actually quite a bit tougher. F&B, paper being too. You talked about timing at Life Sciences. We know you walked away from some low-margin business that at Institutional recently, like how much of the sequential deceleration is sort of those factors that can normalize relative to actual change in the underlying trajectory like, because of weaker macro conditions or other items?
Doug Baker:
Yes, I think in Industrial, I mean I think when you normalize you get like this, I mean, if we were going to just to kind of top size this thing, it's a there's like a 2 point apparent deceleration. I mean we are still going to grow on our higher base. We would call it 1 point market and 1 point is sort of gear shift from pricing to new business. And that's why we know we get on this new business, we're already starting to see the results, we know we will end up, if you will, gaining back some of that sales momentum. Now we aren't going to be able to cover any market condition. Nobody's ever expected us to nor will we promise that we can, but if the conditions remain more or less like they are today. We think this is still a relatively good market for us to continue to perform in the fashion that we're performing.
Gary Bisbee:
And then a quick follow-up just on pricing, you said you expect to enter 2020 still having pretty solid pricing, but obviously, the comps get more difficult as we move out because you start lapping the bigger price increases you've gotten. What's reasonable to think about over the next year? I mean is it sort of like the 1% or so that's been the long-term average or 1% to 2% or anyway to help us.
Doug Baker:
Yes, I would say, it's not going to be at the current rate, which really when you strip out as I mentioned, Upstream averages up, right, it's a little over 2.5%. It's about the rate that we expect in the fourth quarter and it is going to slow through the year, but we will be significantly above our normalized 1% calling almost terminal rate that we have. So I think we're in a position next year where we don't forecast inflation really in our raw material base to still have benefit from pricing.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your questions.
David Begleiter:
Thank you. Doug, can you discuss the competitive dynamics in U.S. institutional and any concern that -- may be more aggressive view on the new business development might elicit some price response from your large competitor?
Doug Baker:
Yes, David, I haven't, we haven't seen huge change in their behavior really anywhere, I would say, as we look at our wins and losses against our main Institutional F&B competitor, it's 4 times more wins than losses. And so our advantage, I think in technology and feet on the street and ability honestly to deliver great value I think continues to show up. So I mean, I'm just -- the numbers that we have, we don't see it. If we look at retention kind of ex the large margin walk away situation, we have very good retention, and so we're not seeing it. We're not getting nickels and dimes with small, medium accounts. Our retention has actually improved in Industrial throughout the year, which is terrific given the very strong pricing performance that they've had. So that's what we know.
David Begleiter:
Very good. And just on buybacks, Doug, you bought back no stock in the quarter, is that due to more active M&A pipeline and how is M&A pipeline today?
Doug Baker:
Yes, we've got a large pipeline I've mentioned this and we're obviously going after a number of what I'd call middle to smaller deals. I think we also have larger folks that we'd be interested in, but there you got to be pretty, pretty price disciplined. Typically they're longer -- they're companies with the history and your ability to improve them is X, but not X times three, and so we need to make sure that we're going to get a return for our shareholders over any reasonable period of time. I would say I never really want a recession, but I mean if there is an upside and there is a recession coming, I just can't tell you what year it's going to be, it will be a better M&A environment.
Operator:
Next question is from the line of John Roberts with UBS. Please proceed with your question.
John Roberts :
Doug, thanks. In the Institutional SBU, for the business that was exited, was that business that Ecolab never should have been in, or was it business that you've got in and then the customers eroded in that business? And then if you can characterize for us the businesses that you are exiting?
Doug Baker :
Yes. No, we were in that business a long time, the value equation we had was favorable. The offers that were put on the table for the customers were dramatic decreases on what I would characterize as lower margin business for us before we ever would consider meeting those deals. And so while it was good, it was going to be upside down if we met those like bids. And so, we chose not to do that. We of course continue to try to secure the business at a much different price than was being offered and the customers made a choice. This has happened. I mean, this isn't the first time, I wish it would be the last. And as I mentioned before, we've been through -- we went through a wave of this in F&B for a number of years, I would say we secured almost all of that business back. I can't really think of one that we have and I'm sure there is one. We've had in Institutional over years. It kind of moves by region. And in many cases, we've re-secured that business as well. So we've got to maintain price discipline. Going -- selling customers for a cash loss just doesn't make any sense to us. And I -- we do not believe our cost advantage or we have this monster cost disadvantage, I think we just understand the cost of doing the business quite well.
John Roberts :
And then post-spin, will you put the downstream energy business into the Industrial segment? And are the margins about the same as the overall industrial segment currently?
Doug Baker :
Yes, downstream will end up in the Industrial segment. In fact, their margins are higher.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies. Please proceed with your questions.
Dan Rizzo :
Hi guys, this is Dan Rizzo on for Laurence. How are you? So with the pricing and the shift to growth for next year, is there a certain threshold with external factors that would kind of make you shift your policy again. I mean would be a spike in oil or I mean how do you think about it if things were to change in terms of the input cost environment?
Doug Baker :
Yes, well absolutely, I mean you can draw a scenario where it would be smart to re-prioritize again, input pricing had a growth. We aren't anticipating that environment obviously but should it happen, we could pivot quickly there.
Operator:
Next question is coming from the line of Christopher Parkinson with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.
Christopher Parkinson :
Your results in F&B continue to do pretty well on enterprise selling across water pest elimination among a few other substrates. Can you just give us an intermediate to long-term update on where these initiatives stand? Where they could go in 2021? And just are there any other glaring enterprise selling opportunities within Industrial comparable to F&B? Thank you.
Doug Baker :
Well, yes, I would probably characterize it as -- why don't I say within water just because it's really water and F&B partnering very successfully. And honestly, there are a lot of legs left in that partnership. There is many customers where we may have small penetration of the combined concept, but not full enterprise and there are others where we haven't penetrated yet at all. So I would say I think the team has done a great job. But there is still plenty of room left to go even there. With that said, if you look at the water match up with Institutional, particularly in the hotel segment and with healthcare and the hospital for acute care segment, there is a significant upside. With water and life sciences is, pharma continues to make sure that they create really sterile boundaries even external to they're building et cetera. So there are a number of initiatives and opportunities as we go forward. The data that we're getting and the new capabilities to digital just enhance our capability to what I would say it, marry these solutions to create outsized impact for customers.
Christopher Parkinson :
Got it. You've also -- lot more with products and service programs in healthcare over the last 12 months to 18 months, including some stuff internationally. Can you just quickly walk us through the two to three key growth drivers for our 2020 in both the U.S. and abroad just given the strategy evolution? Thank you.
Doug Baker :
Yes, look, I would say, number one, continue driving the program, selling initiatives that are already underway. They continue to have success. We know long-term that's one of the smartest strategies and the team continues to work to pull what I would call some commoditized segments and wrap them with digital capability to create additional programs moving forward. The other, as we discussed at the Investor Conference that we had is OEM Solutions. A lot of this is marrying our capability and other med-tech device companies' capabilities and creating joint solutions that really gives both sides an advantage and these can be quite sticky as well. Those would be two big initiatives that we continue to push. We continue on Anios to push internationally and geographic moves outward using their technology where we don't want to build, if you will, a ground-up Ecolab healthcare business and we continue to build out countries like Australia, China et cetera with more traditional Ecolab full service approach.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Rosemarie Morbelli with G. Research. Please proceed with your question.
Rosemarie Morbelli :
Doug, looking at downstream energy, you mentioned the timing of new business start-up and timing of also maintenance. Could you give us an estimate of the impact on the downstream growth? And then, is that a business that you can catch up in the fourth quarter or do you have to wait until the spring of next year because of weather?
Doug Baker :
Yes, no, I mean the downstream business will we think be much better in the fourth quarter, because of the timing issues that we discussed. So mid-single-digits type performance. I would say, downstream is not that much different than some of the other businesses. They have been clearly all over pricing as well and have done a very good job securing pricing. It's helped them drive significant enhancement in margin, because they had to rebuild margins as well as a result of raw material price inflation. And so, they are also in a shift to make sure that they get on and have growth and pricing but growth first, as they start driving share gains and they've got plenty of opportunities to do that.
Rosemarie Morbelli :
And then quickly if you could touch on how much business overall you may have lost because of your pricing strategy? And then if you could update us on the transaction, the Holchem transaction in the UK, where do you stand?
Doug Baker :
Well, the Holchem, I mean I think it has been announced, we have a disagreement with the anti-trust authorities. Unfortunately, the power in this disagreement is asymmetrical. Just the same, we plan to challenge it through the legal channels that are available to us. But clearly, it's not a positive. And so, we just have to let that and move through the courts. In terms of -- customers we lost because of pricing. I mean aside from the conversation we've just had around those two customers in Institutional, which is now well over a year old story in terms of when we got the news, we don’t know -- I don't know of -- I'm sure there is a few but not material and the best evidence is the evidence I cited earlier, which is what we call our retention, which we measure very carefully by business. Our retention corporately is better and it's improved throughout the year in Industrial. So we don't really see the pricing has had an adverse effect on our customer base.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Mike Harrison with Seaport Global Securities. Please proceed with your question.
Mike Harrison :
Was wondering about the water business, you mentioned some softening in autos and steel. Can you talk a little bit about how those markets were trending during the third quarter and into Q4 were they worsening? And I guess kind of the heart of my question is that autos have been weak for some time. So is it that they're shut down activity that happened in Q3? And I guess why didn't -- why haven't autos looked weaker earlier in the year, because they've been under some pressure for some time?
Doug Baker :
Yes autos I think as you know well publicized scenario. So I don't think we see a situation where that turns around by any means in Q4. I mean you might have GM. It was a specific customer because strike on and strike off. But aside from that I mean autos weakened throughout the quarter and we would expect them to remain weak in Q4 as we go through. In terms of steel, we got more of mixed message as it goes. I mean we secured new business in that area. But overall, I mean the steel business as a consequence, in part because of autos and other Industrial is down. But we don't look at that one as hopeless as that business continues to grow. We would expect it to grow in the fourth quarter.
Mike Harrison :
And then a question on the F&B business, just looking for an update on the protein market. You mentioned that, that market grew moderately during the quarter, but was wondering specifically if you can comment on what you're seeing related to African swine fever and the impact that that's had on protein markets?
Doug Baker :
Yes, I don't think that's going to have a material impact on us, given most of our exposure in protein would be beef and chicken. So we've seen the protein business continues to grow. It's low single-digits. We would expect more of the same.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of PJ Juvekar with Citi. Please proceed with your question.
Eric Petrie :
Good afternoon, this is Eric Petrie on for PJ. Doug, your volume and mix was flat in the quarter, how do you think that compares versus underlying industry trends?
Doug Baker :
Well, as we mentioned earlier that's heavily influenced by Energy, right, which was off considerably and also paper. I think even those declines were very much in line with industry trend. You might even argue we held sort of our gain share in those markets. And then on the balance, I think now I mean how many -- I've got a lot of industries to walk through, but I would say, I think if you look in total, I think we're -- if you look at our net wins and net losses what we think is actually going on in the markets, I would say we feel we are gaining share, but not at the rate that we want to or need to in the market environment we're in right now.
Eric Petrie :
In healthcare, your team has been innovative with product launches including digital dashboards, predictive analytics, and core temperature fluid management. Do you think that's enough to get the top-line growth higher?
Doug Baker :
Well, we're bouncing around the low to mid-single digits, right now. I think it's going to take us a while to move out of that range. So I think those things are going to enable us to do it. But as we talked in the Investor Conference, I mean we need to continue if you will, evolving the portfolio much more to grow. Some of that we do by taking things that have been commoditized and putting them in the growth category. And some, it's just over time, the stuff in the growth category grows faster than the stuff not and we start seeing a natural shift as we go.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Wittmann with Robert W Baird. Please proceed with your questions.
Andrew Wittmann :
Yes, there's been a lot of questions on kind of the top-line, I wanted to dig in a little bit more into the margin profile. I mean if you look over the course of the year, the SG&A margin has been falling each quarter sequentially around here from like 29%, 27%, this quarter about 25% and you're guiding 25% SG&A in the fourth quarter. I guess as we look at that 25% in the quarter and then guidance for the fourth quarter, is there anything unusual in that, that makes that unusually low or anything or is that kind of the way to be thinking about it as we head into 2020?
Doug Baker :
Yes, there is no big news in there that would say makes it look artificially low. I mean certainly, we work on productivity routinely. We still believe there is productivity in front of us as we leverage more effectively new tools, i.e., we need to equip our teams with capabilities to enable them to manage more business successfully. And we are working on those tools all the time, they are always in flight. And so we do not believe by any means that we're at the end of like our productivity journey, but we've got to do it in a way that makes sense i.e can people adopt the new technology, does it work, does it truly enable us to continue to serve customers the right way? And I think we've done a good job doing that as evidenced by both retention, which is good and continued decline in SG&A ratio.
Andrew Wittmann :
Great, thanks for that. I guess my follow-up question would be, I guess similar on the gross margin side. Obviously, there's a lot of factors that have -- that go into this. In the last couple of quarters, you're starting to see some gross margin leverage from the pricing, which is great to see. I was just wondering what the bigger puts and takes are Doug that you're looking at on the gross margin side? Obviously raw materials has been the story for many, many years now. Are there other factors that come out of your cost efficiency initiatives that you've got in place, which I think were largely SG&A based, but are there other puts and takes besides the raw material complex that could factor into your gross margin performance as you head into 2020?
Doug Baker :
Yes, no, I think there is a number. I mean, one, we got on a lot of formulation work and what I would call is optimizing where we make what in particularly the Energy business, they were impacted by the SAP roll-out that we had. That was really more on what I would call legacy Ecolab plants primarily. So as a consequence they were liberated, they weren't frozen. And so you see even there in tough volume situation good gross profit and very good leverage that is both SG&A and a lot of the work in the plants et cetera. That opportunity exists across the board and the supply chain SAP work is largely done. We got a few plants left to do, but it's really not material, and now those plants are leveraging the new tool, understanding and having more clarity about what's happening in terms of all the way through freight, but making -- we do a batch process should we be rethinking formulation structure and the rest. And so a lot of this work is still in front of us and I would say greatly enhanced and enabled by the work we just did with SAP. There is also clearly work to be done on SG&A. And so this is why we still believe, delivering double-digit EPS is really the right path and the way to think about it going forward, because we can grow and we can also grow while obtaining leverage, not just through volume but through efficiency work both in plants and in SG&A.
Operator:
Thank you. We've reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I will turn the floor back to Mike Monahan for closing comments.
Mike Monahan :
Thank you. That wraps up our third quarter conference call. This conference call and the associated discussion slides will be available for replay on our website. Thank you for your time and participation and our best wishes for the rest of the day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today’s teleconference. And you may now disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day.
Operator:
Greetings, and welcome to the Ecolab's Second Quarter 2019 Earnings Release. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mike Monahan, Senior Vice President, External Relations. Mr. Monahan, you may now begin.
Mike Monahan:
Thank you. Hello everyone, and welcome to Ecolab's second quarter conference call. With me today is Doug Baker, Ecolab's Chairman and CEO; and Dan Schmechel, our CFO. A discussion of our results, along with our earnings release and the slides referencing the quarter's results and our outlook are available on Ecolab's Web site at ecolab.com/investor. Please take a moment to read the cautionary statements in these materials, stating that this teleconference and the associated supplemental materials include estimates of future performance. These are forward-looking statements, and actual results could differ materially from those projected. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are discussed under Risk Factors section in our most recent Form 10-K and in our posted materials. We also refer you to the supplemental diluted earnings per share information in the release. Starting with a brief overview of the results, continued good sales growth and strong margin expansion drove Ecolab's double-digit earnings per share growth in the second quarter. Pricing, new business gains and product innovation led the sales and operating income growth, which along with cost efficiency actions yielded the second quarter's 12% adjusted diluted earnings per share increase. Moving to some highlights in the quarter, and as discussed in our press release, acquisition-adjusted fixed currency sales increased 4% as the Industrial and Other segments both showed strong sales gains. We realized improved growth from the Institutional segment and a modest gain from Energy. Adjusted fixed currency operating income margins increased 120 basis points, continuing the good acceleration shown throughout 2018 and into 2019. Growth we led by double-digit gains in the Industrial and Other segments. Adjusted earnings per share increased 12% to $1.42, representing another quarter of double-digit adjusted EPS growth. Currency translation was an unfavorable $0.05 per share in the quarter. Progress continues on the spin-off of our upstream energy business. We continue to expect spin-off to be completed by mid 2020. We continue to work aggressively to drive our growth, winning new business through our innovative new products and sales and service expertise, as well as diving pricing, productivity, and cost efficiencies to grow our top and bottom lines and improve rates across all of our segments. Our digital investments are developing well, and we look for them to add an expanding range of new actionable insights for customers to improve their operations, enhance their experience working with us, and increase our sales force effectiveness. We continue to expect consolidated 2019 adjusted diluted earnings per share to rise 10% to 14% to the $5.80 to $6.00 range. As volume and price gains and cost efficiency benefits more than offset the impact of moderated delivered product cost increases and business investments. Currency translation is expected to be an unfavorable $0.11 per share in 2019. Third quarter adjusted diluted earnings per share are expected to be in the $1.65 to $1.75 range, up 8% to 14%. In summary, we expect continued good top line momentum in 2019, which should more than offset moderated delivered cost and unfavorable currency exchange, and along with cost efficiency actions yield 10% to 14% adjusted diluted earnings per share growth. We continue to make the right investments in the key areas for differentiation, including product innovation and digital investments to develop superior growth this year, and for the future. And now here's Doug Baker with some comments.
Doug Baker:
Thanks, Mike, and hello. Look, it was a very solid quarter, adjusted EPS up 12% versus year ago. We had a number of standout performances, led by water at 8% organic, life sciences, which was up 43% but importantly 14% organic, F&B up 9%, 5% organic, and pest 7% organic. And we also saw solid improvement in our Institutional and healthcare businesses. So continued strong pricing work, new business efforts led by innovation, all helped drive a 14% improvement in operating income, which reflects a 120 basis point improvement in ROI ratio at fixed currency. So was delivered, importantly, while executing the key final steps in our U.S. SAP rollout, which is now largely behind us. So as we sit here today, we feel we're in a very good position. We've got significant growth opportunities, our teams are focused on driving new business and having success, margins are expanding via pricing and cost saving efforts, and all of our initiatives have legs, they're early. So as a result, I remain quite confident we'll meet our dual objectives of delivering the year, and importantly, exiting with great momentum. So with that, I'll turn it back to Mike.
Mike Monahan:
Thanks, Doug. That concludes our formal remarks. As a final note before we start Q&A, we plan to hold our 2018 investor day on Thursday, September 5. If you have any questions, please contact my office. Operator, would you please begin the question-and-answer period.
Operator:
Yes, thank you. We'll now be conducting the question-and-answer session. We ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one brief follow-up question per caller so that others will have a chance to participate. [Operator Instructions] Our first question is from the line of Dan Dolev with Nomura. Please proceed with your questions.
Dan Dolev:
Hey guys, thank you so much for taking my question. So looks like a great quarter when it comes the cost control, et cetera. It looks like your guiding your gross margin up by 50 basis points for the year. Two questions here, a, how much confidence do you have in that increase in the guide, Doug. And the second question is, if I think about sort of the EPS impact for this it's north of, I think, $0.10 potentially. You do have some interest savings, maybe a little bit more shares, like why not take up the EPS guidance; I mean this seems quite conservative? Thank you.
Doug Baker:
Well, I guess from the first question on gross margin, I mean we feel good about our ability to continue to drive improvements in gross margin. Q2 reported had a negative year-on-year gross margin, not significant. But that was really driven fundamentally by the fact that we just produced less in that quarter. And that was taking down inventories, as we had a successful SAP rollout we built them in the first quarter, and actually in Q4, so we really reduced the inventories fairly dramatically, four days in Q2 versus Q1. And we also had lower sales in our WellChem business. So that's really the sum total of why you didn't see a little daylight between gross margin this year versus last year. So we see raws [ph] holding, getting marginally better, pricing continues. So we have a good deal of confidence that we'll see improvement for the year in gross margin, estimating, call it around, 50 basis points plus-minus for the year. Your question as to -- well, we've got pluses and minuses in the year, we always do. You identified a couple, interest income is a plus versus what we expected, raw materials are a minus-plus as we sit here today. Of course that can change. But as we look what will be minor plus versus our plan. But then you've got volume negative really just in the upstream business, and really principally in WellChem. And so that's the negative. They sort of neutralize each other. There is certainly some of the margin increase as just a function of a little lower sales as a consequence of WellChem volume coming down, which by itself is a lower margin too. So I think we feel we have a very balanced outlook. We're continuing very significant investments in the business. We are undertaking and finalizing SAP. The high risk stuff is all behind us, 100% of the U.S. supply chain is on it now, the key parts. And so we feel like we're in very good shape in a number of areas. And we're forecasting midpoint, like a 12%. So, it's a good year, and importantly we feel we'll have very good momentum exiting the year.
Dan Dolev:
Great, excellent results. Thanks again.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Gary Bisbee with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.
Gary Bisbee:
Hey guys, good afternoon. Doug, as we exited last year the sales momentum had built, and I think the expectation was that that momentum would continue. And yet things have slowed a bit year-to-date. I realize Energy is a big component of that, and I guess to a certain extent Institutional, you've walked away from some low margin business. But how are you thinking about sales momentum overall and is this 4% or 5% type of number the last two quarters, is that pretty good number to think about going forward or is there a case that there could be some acceleration from here in the back-half of the year? Thanks.
Doug Baker:
Well, I think you touched on the two issues. I mean one is upstream sales are softer than expected and softer than last year, and Institutional losses. If you exclude the upstream business we have 6% sales, 5% organic, and that, it would include the Institutional losses this year. So I think underneath we feel good. I mean we were growing organically, watered 8%. I highlighted a number of standout divisions. And I think this 5% organic would easily be 6% with the normalized losses in Institutional which we will see beginning first quarter of next year. So I think we're in good shape there. We continue to drive pricing at the same time and manage a number of other initiatives. I don't think there's ever any satisfaction here with whatever the print is on our sales number, we always want another point or another two. But I don't believe that's an issue at this in point. And importantly, the net new business results are accelerating particularly in institutional which is the best leading indicator we have of future results.
Gary Bisbee:
Great. Thanks. And then just a quick follow-up, any -- how are you seeing the macros, thinking about the macros these days, a lot of headlines about slowing in China. Obviously, Europe remains relatively weak, is that having much impact on the trending in revenue, or has it not changed that much from your advantage point? Thank you.
Doug Baker:
Yes, I agree with the headlines. I mean we see some of it in China too. But for the year, we were estimating mid to upper single digit growth in China. And China is a size it's $0.5 billion, so it's not going to have a huge seesaw affect on our overall results. Yes, I don't think the economy is hitting our results right now. There is significant share in front of us. We can continue to drive it. There are economic conditions obviously that can't impact. We are not bulletproof, but we tend to perform better than most in poor economic times. But at this point in time, I wouldn't blame the economy. I think all in all we are doing what we need to do to continue to push sales and push pricing and the other things forward. And I think the environment is favorable enough to allow us to do that.
Gary Bisbee:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Tim Mulrooney with William Blair. Please proceed with your question. Mr. Mulrooney, your line is open for question.
Tim Mulrooney:
Sorry about that. Good afternoon, Doug. The performance in your water business has been outstanding over the last call it four quarter or little more maybe. I know the strong organic growth is a combination of many different factors. But in terms of share gains, if you look at the light business and the heavy business, you look at the different geographies; can you talk a little bit about where your product innovation is really having an impact with respect to new business wins et cetera?
Doug Baker:
Yes. There have been a number of areas. Obviously as you just highlighted, I mean the water business is strong across many fronts, which is one of the secrets. It's particular strength recently is an initiative that we had really coupling what I would call our food safety hygiene business with water. Particularly in the food & beverage area, we have had a number of just huge wins in that area because there is real synergy when you combine the two. We have a unique ability to do and deliver value in that way versus competition. So we have significant competitive advantage, i.e., we can bring outside value to customers that others can't. And as a result, we have seen dramatic share wins there. But this isn't the only area that we can do that. We are now taking in into some core parts of the institutional arena where we also believe the combination can have significant impact as we move forward. But the fundamental business, how they are executing, how we are looking at leveraging 3D TRASAR, how we digitize much of the business and give us more visibility -- gives us much more visibility. And in turn allows us to do much more for customers. All these things are helping drive share gains.
Tim Mulrooney:
Okay. That's helpful. Thanks. And then my second question is digital business. Are there any quantifiable metrics that you could share with us with respect to digital innovation efforts to give us a better idea how the program is moving along maybe and in terms of the number of users today, your pilot programs in the field or data scientists on staff, or anything you can point to say, hey, we are in a different place than we were two years ago?
Doug Baker:
Well, we certainly are, I would say a couple of years ago, I mean we probably tripled sales what we called digitally enabled over the last couple of years. We have had a bunch of sizeable wins this year as the technology and the investments that we have been making over the last few years are now bearing fruit because they are marketable if you will. What we will do is spend real-time in the Investor Day meeting that we have coming up in September quantifying and discussing this in more detail that will obviously be webcast to even those who can't make it in person can certainly hear. And we are working and developing. We have a number of internal metrics that we have been refining. What we want to do is make sure we have the right metrics to point our investors to, i.e., the ones that we think are best indications of leading wins and leading results. And so, we've been doing a lot of work there. So certainly it's digitally enabled sales. It is number of people on hand, but its number of units that we're touching type of information that we're pulling, et cetera. All those things are moving in the right direction. We feel good about the effort. But this is an area where you can't move fast enough. And I think the more we learn, the more we know we have to learn and also the better we feel about the upside potential. This technology represents for our ability to make a difference with our customers. So it's all good, but we're going to do spend some real time on it now in September.
Tim Mulrooney:
Got it. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Manav Patnaik with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.
Manav Patnaik:
Thank you. Good afternoon, Doug obviously your sales pipeline today. I think gives you confidence that the macro environment that everyone's worried about maybe doesn't impact in India to medium-term. But I guess, a couple of years ago when GDP wasn't that wanted to bring your top line wasn't as fast. So is there something I guess the changes made over that period of time today? Does that give you more confidence that you'd probably be able to outpace that video sales pipeline the way it's executed in the last few years?
Doug Baker:
Yes, I mean, the only safe answer is, look I think we've done a number of things to further strengthen competitive advantage, the digital conversation that we just talked in that area, certainly one of the areas. With that said, and I mentioned this, we're not bulletproof. So yes, the economy drops dramatically. It's going to impact us, but I don't believe it pulls us negative and really it hasn't, even if you go back to the '08, '09 episodes. We kept our nose above water or be it barely during that period of time. So we do a good job during the downturn, a lot of it is the nature of what we sell, how we are going to market. The trade, we asked from customers, i.e., invest in our technology and you're going to get 2 and 3 back in returns is a very effective story even in difficult times. So, I don't want to say that it's not going to have any impact. That's not our history, but I think it's a muted impact versus other companies.
Manav Patnaik:
Okay. Got it. And then just on the margin side, and then obviously, the guidance implies that second-half margins were kind of an outside period, assuming raw material costs are in check or as expected, should we expect, next year to have kind of a similar showing on the margin side or there other moving pieces we should be considering?
Doug Baker:
Yes, I was a little wary of talking about the next year, so early in this year. But I guess what we've alluded to once we introduced the accelerated cost savings initiative. There are conversations. If you read back, I mean, we did indicate if we normally run a call at a 40 to 50 basis point improvement, accelerate should be added up to that we acknowledge that. This year we would expect OI margins to create over 100 basis points. You all things being equal, I don't, I don't think it's a one-year phenomenon, but there's a lot that I don't know about next year i.e. FX raw materials, economic environment, et cetera. So I'm a little wary of coming out too strongly on that. But what we're working hard to do is setup the scenario where that's the type of capability we have from a delivery standpoint i.e. when I reference in my upfront comments, we're leaving the year with momentum. We want both top line and margin momentum as we leave the year because then you have a lot of tools to deal with whatever the environment is going to be.
Manav Patnaik:
Got it. All right. Thank you, guys.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.
Laurence Alexander:
Good afternoon. I guess two questions. One, could you give us a what the -- sort of longer term run rates and then the recent growth rate in the -- remain co energy, the piece that you're keeping? So we can think about what a benchmark is for the next few years. And secondly, from where you sit now, is there a way to leverage the digital platforms into healthcare to accelerate the business there or how's your thinking evolved around the need for scale in that business to improve to top line growth?
Doug Baker:
Yes, so I'll just touch on healthcare first. The healthcare teams been one of our leaders in digital innovation in their business and it already has significant sales. We have really, I think the best in class hand hygiene system, monitoring system for acute care adoption rate continues to pick up and move forward there. We've got great technology and monitoring and measuring our ability to knock down healthcare acquired infections which is a big and important measurement. So there are a number of areas where there's been real innovation and I think the team as they become more aware of capabilities are starting to drive this to other parts of the program. So, our healthcare business in the quarter was 4% and 3% organic, it was 6% organic in Europe and double-digit in other regions, North America, U.S. in particular was flat. But I think what the teams are doing well is they're identifying where they have really strong growth opportunities medium and long-term and they're increasing their focus on those areas and getting after them and that includes some of the digital efforts that I spoke to. The other question you had around downstream. So there are three components to our energy business today, there's oilfield chemicals, there's WellChem, those two comprise upstream that's being spun and downstream is remaining with the company and being folded into the industrial businesses. It'll be still a standalone business but it will report up into the industrial group, the downstream businesses about a $1 billion in size, it grew last year at mid single digits, it grew same in Q2, it's expanding margins this year around 200% as its pricing is catching up to raw materials this year as well. It's well above average in terms of OI margin for the corporation. Great return on capital, it's a very similar business to our other industrial businesses. The mid single digit is sort of what we expect out of that business when we're executing well and we've got advantage technology there, we have leading share and we continue to gain share in the market with that business.
Laurence Alexander:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is coming from the line of John Roberts with UBS. Please shoot your question.
John Roberts:
Thank you. Nice quarter, is it fair to think about the pest business, pest elimination is a leading indicator for the institutional segment in that pest is a little bit more discretionary, so the fact that it's performing so strong for so long, it argues well for the momentum in the institutional business?
Doug Baker:
I would say the pest business look it's the largest component will be in institutional but it's got a fairly sizable share in industrial too. What's similar about the two businesses is execution matters quite a bit and what the pest team has really done over the last, I call it five, six years is stepped up their execution considerably. We went through a few years you may recall where it was low single digits. Everybody was kind of what's wrong with past. We put it into the shop, it came out and it's really done incredibly well growing at high single digit organic growth rates for a really several years now in a row. I don't know what if it's a perfect proxy or not. I would say our institutional business. I am not worried about it from a long-term standpoint; I wish it was growing faster this year. Yes that would align me with every member of the institutional team. With that said, I think they're doing exactly what they need to do, they are driving sales, they are driving innovation and driving execution particularly in Europe. We're seeing positive signs net business is up double-digits in institutional. The innovation focus and the execution focus is starting to show results in Europe albeit slowly but we expect Europe to improve towards second largest institutional business we have in the world, we need to get that thing moving and we still have such significant upside in this business, it can be product penetration in the more developed markets. We have new water opportunities this business which I alluded to but also ones that don't really involve Nalco water per se, but our significant we think upside potential for the business we have sizable share and execution opportunities globally. So we look at this and we talked about being on track to exit the year. I'll remind everybody, I mean like on 12/31 I believe we're going to be at a 4% to 5% run rate in that business as a new business continues to kick in. And most importantly, as the loss business is lapped and all the fundamentals point to that direction. So we're just asking the team to keep doing what they're doing. We believe time heals this thing in that we're going to be in very good shape moving into 2020.
John Roberts:
And then secondly at the National Restaurant Association meeting you previewed a lot of digital activities over in the Institutional segment. Is the Industrial segment, as Rich in digital opportunities and obviously the inter ratio is focused towards the institutional markets. So we didn't talk about there but I don't if you can give us a perception of how balance the digital effort is across the two?
Doug Baker:
Yes, I'd say, if anything, the Institutional side has been playing catch up to the industrial side, we started a lot of this work and Nalco water in particular part because we had a head start with the acquired technology 3D traits are which was connected to our system assurance center and Pune, India. But as we continue to develop that technology develop our capabilities. That was the first place that we really kind of use that as a tip of the spear for digital innovation because we had knowledge there that we could go leverage. We've taken a lot of the learnings there. And that's really the base of knowledge that we're applying in other businesses, and then obviously customizing it for the challenges at hand. So if anything, and I think you'll see that clearly in September, we have huge significant innovations there, many of which are being commercialized right now that we're quite, quite excited about, just like we do on the institutional side.
John Roberts:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your questions.
David Begleiter:
Thank you. Doug, just on pricing, given some raws are now flattening out coming down. Is there some potential for your pricing to also decelerated in the back half of the year?
Doug Baker:
We don't expect it to decelerate in the back half of this year. Obviously if you get a significant raw material give ups, it does have an impact on our ability to get pricing. We don't typically go negative on pricing as you've watched over the years and we don't expect too in the future, but for this year, we expect to have strong pricing throughout the balance of the year.
David Begleiter:
Very good. And just on what the S&P implementation done, would you expect the tailwinds to be for you guys from that fully in place now?
Doug Baker:
Well, I mean as I, as I said, we've got still some work to be done in a couple of divisions to bring on, but the big divisions in the big risk is really what I would consider behind us. Not in front of us. And we didn't - This is kind of the most mentioned, we've had in the quarter, mostly because we don't have any negative to tell you and we're largely done I look, there is a number of things, when you go through this. One, we know we had increased costs during implementation. Some of these are starting to come out, but there is more that we've got to go get out, you have to shift production, you have to build inventory you have a lot more inter-company freight than you do when you're not doing this you have extra shipments because your service levels are naturally impacted as a consequence of this significant shift, our product supply team I thought did a heck of a job managing through this, but you can see it and have any negative consequences, we know it did. So we know we're going to see some margin come back as we go through this, but most importantly it's a visibility that it gives us going forward. And the reason to make this investment isn't just defense, it's also offense. So, our ability to look at our business understand trends do a better job managing things like freight, things like customer delivery do a better job delivering and do it less money, all of which is even more important today given the escalation in freight pricing that we've seen the last few years, I think it's going to have a number of benefits as we go forward. Now, of course, we build that into our forecast, but it's these kind of cost savings opportunities that we want to continue to build, because these are the levers that we want to have to manage through whatever 2020 throws our way, with a similar environment is this year we're in perfect shape if it's even worse we're in good are decent shape. And that's the type of situation we try to put ourselves in.
David Begleiter:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.
Vincent Andrews:
Thank you very much, Doug, just if I could ask you for more detail on Institutional, last quarter we talked about, there were some customer inventory issues that you thought would reset over 2Q and 3Q couldn't exactly tell the timing, so if you could just update us on where we stand on that it would be great.
Doug Baker:
Yes, we got some of the back in the second quarter. We would expect some more coming back in the third and fourth. But I expect this business really to kind of bounce around this 3% level for the balance of the year, it's a little better in that if you adjust for losses and stuff like that, but at that level it is very easy for us to get to the four to five exit rate that I've talked about. So that's what we see in some of that is inventory naturally coming back is it does.
Vincent Andrews:
Okay. That actually gets me right question for Dan, which is just looking at the cash flow from operations for the first six months year-over-year is up quite nicely and ahead of the net income gain. So and there were some conversation about the inventory builds around SAP and so forth. Maybe you can just give us a sense of how working capital should trend in the back half of the year, how we should be thinking about overall free cash flow for the year?
Dan Schmechel:
Sure. Thank you. So you're right, when we were on the first quarter call Right, taking questions about what was a relatively weak at least year-on-year cash flow performance, clearly that slipped in the second quarter as we expected it to and communicated that it would. And year-on-year, a big part of that is improvement in working capital trends and inventory in particular, if you look at the second quarter last year as Doug indicated, we were really building inventories in anticipation but also sort of a security for the SAP go-live, clearly we flipped that and in year-on-year comparison, inventory is significantly favorable to cash flow, as in fairness is accounts receivable and AP and so it was all in all a very strong quarter for cash flow. If you look over the full-year, I guess I would continue to say what I said last time, which is we - there continue to be opportunities to improve working capital performance somewhat, so we expect inventory balances to come down, but if you drop all the way down to year-to-date free cash flow, the metric that I focus on is where you started, which is we expect to be delivering very strong free cash flow is something like 90% conversion of net income and that will be dependent of course in on other activities that we take that's the number that I would focus on for the full-year. So great quarter feel good about our position to deliver strong free cash flow for the full-year in line with business results. Okay.
Vincent Andrews:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.
Jeff Zekauskas:
Thanks very much. On your consolidated income statement, your product and equipment sales were up 1% year-over-year and your service and lease sales were up six, why was product and equipment so slow and service and lease and growing so quickly?
Doug Baker:
Yes, the product was really a consequence of WellChem because WellChem doesn't really have service component per se and so as a consequence, when it's down it has an outsized impact on the product component. I will also say and I'll probably get kicked by my CFO and others we're not big fans of this product service split internally, we manage and look at the business in different ways, because we don't believe it's the best indicator now Dan didn't create as you'll also remind me it was foisted upon us, but we don't believe it's the best way to go work, but the issue you're talking about was really driven by WellChem volume being down which distorts the picture.
Jeff Zekauskas:
It's also the case that the margins in service and lease lifted 240 basis points and product and equipment cost of - in the property and equipment piece maybe dropped 120, can you talk about the margin differential why one was lower and the other one was higher?
Doug Baker:
Yes, well, the product is back to the earlier conversation which is - we made less product in the quarter, so absorption was a negative as we took down inventories where we four days from Q1 to Q2 and WellChem was down, so you had those double impact and absorption. It was the single biggest issue was or about what we expected pricing was what we expected et cetera. The surface component one, we've got initiatives, it gets a little outsize in terms of what the actual impact was in service, I would say, as we look at it, we don't believe in best illustrates what's going on in the business. And when we look at it, we would say overall gross profit combined was if you take out the inventory move was flat year-on-year roughly, and we had improvement in SG&A across the board. G&A and yes and we don't price this stuff separately. We do bundled pricing. So separating these things is a bit of an artificial game for us.
Jeff Zekauskas:
Okay, great. Thank you so much.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Christopher Parkinson with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.
Christopher Parkinson:
Thank you. When you break down your industrial business by platform, so commercial off the utility chemical, et cetera, and you should look at all of your longer term opportunities on a global basis, as well as the relative and market growth rates, pricing power capabilities, can you just comment broadly on the longer term margin drivers in terms of mix your expectations, just any sense we could get of on where this business could go over the long-term would be appreciated. Thank you.
Doug Baker:
Well, I'd see water across the board where while we say we are the market leader, it's a very similar story to the balance; we are still relatively low in share. And the wind, if you will, or the currents in the water area are very favorable. They're not favorable for the world, but they are favorable for those with technology like ours i.e. water pressures are going to increase, we know water scarcity is only going to worsen something like 70% of the world's GDP is going to be in water scarce areas. As soon as 2030 there's going to be a 40% mismatch between freshwater supply and demand as a consequence of growing middle class and finite water supply, so all those things lead favorable macro environment. And then, we sit here with what we consider best in class technology and capability, helping our customers, reduce water consumption dramatically. This in turn reduces their carbon footprint in energy bill, so they end up saving money, it's the same time they end up saving water, water itself is too cheap, but because it starts saving energy too, you end up with significant savings. This is true in virtually every industry that we are every vertical as you discuss, we compete in and so as a consequence, we feel very good about our positioning in water and our ability to continue to execute, digital will give us more capabilities in terms of shining a light on the difference that we can make, enabling customers to see where they stand in a given industry and what their opportunities are and what types of investments could be made to get, what types to return, all these things we think long-term are favorable to us. And then it's incumbent on us to execute. And that's really what we believe the name of the game here is in water. We bought it because we thought it was going to be an important issue for our customers, we knew it already was. And all we've done since is learned that it's even more important than we probably felt and that leading technology and I would say coupling of equal lab know how it's been a very potent mix.
Christopher Parkinson:
Great, thank you. And just as a quick follow-up. On the enterprise selling initiative, obviously this week on and for some time, can you just do a self-report card and how do you think you've done the ongoing opportunities as well as the opportunities still to come. It's clearly been successful in F&B certainly recently, but what are the areas, institutional pest elimination and specialty? Do you still see the largest opportunities? Thank you.
Doug Baker:
Yes, with the time of the merger, and I'm going back and my memory is not flawless, but I believe we said that we were chasing a half a billion in terms of synergy sales. And we've more than delivered against that objective. And I would say, if anything, what we've learned across the way is how, how many, and how significant the opportunities are. The next chapter here is continuing what I would call development -- synergistic development i.e. where one innovation on let's say F&B and another innovation on the water side when coupled together, bring even more outsized advantage for customers who choose to buy both from us. We have the same opportunity in institution in a number of market segments as well as, and as we crack that code, we believe we are going to have even more success going forward. But it's still early I would say look, we chased a $120 billion market opportunity conservatively and we are $14 billion - $15 billion. And water is the single largest opportunity of all. And so, we are not sitting here worried about running out of green space in terms of the ability to go generate new business. It's really making sure that we execute and do it well so that we capture it.
Christopher Parkinson:
Thank you.
Operator:
And the next question is from the line of Rosemarie Morbelli with Gabelli & Company. Please proceed with your question.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
Thank you. Good afternoon everyone, and congratulations on a strong quarter. Looking at F&B, Doug, the industry was flat. And yet, you reported a strong growth excluding acquisitions, corporate account share gains, price et cetera. Can you talk about in more details what -- the trends you are seeing in the different sub segments like dairy, beverage, brewery, food?
Doug Baker:
Yes. I would say overall what's happening in our F&B business is one, we are gaining share. And we have had outside share gains particularly in the beverage and brewing parts of the business over recent trends. And so, those have been probably the most importantly fastest growth segment. Our beverage, brewery, food is about on par 4% et cetera. But dairy is also quite strong at 10%. And it's not exactly an ideal market for dairy. So, what we are doing is helping customers produce more with less; with less water and less energy. This brings outside savings to them. And when they are in a flat market, savings are very important. And they get to do this without any sacrifice, i.e., food safety, measurements. I would say operational efficiency measurements all are equal or better under these scenarios. And you get the resultant savings and water and energy and also a storyline around sustainability because it's real. So it's that formula that the team has developed in partnership and concert with the Nalco water team. And that's leading to our ability to drive success in a relatively flat business.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
Thanks, that is helpful. And I wondering looking at beverage, I mean there is a lot of noise around plastic bottles. And there seem to be an increase in the use of aluminum cans versus plastic bottles at least for water and other soft drinks. How do you fit in that particular category? Are you going to be hurt if the industry moves to a substantially more cans versus plastic bottle?
Doug Baker:
No, I would say, first, our position is let's all collectively do what's smart for earth. And we will have to adjust our business. With that said, a trade in plastic bottle to either milk type carton and/or aluminum cans will not have a negative impact on our business.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
So you are in both categories?
Doug Baker:
Yes.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
Okay, thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Mike Harrison with Seaport Global. Please proceed with your question.
Mike Harrison:
Hi, good afternoon. I was wondering within the water business you mentioned some new business wins in mining. I was just wondering if these are new mines, and the fills associated with the new mines, are you taking share at existing mines? I guess I was under the impression that it's typically difficult to take share from existing mines as that tends to be pretty sticky business.
Doug Baker:
Yes. Look, there two things going on in mining. But the biggest is that mining rebound broadly. It's a cyclical industry. But, we have also had some success with new business in mining. And we are targeting and trying to move increasingly away from coal which you might find obvious in the areas like phosphates and the others. These strategies are working, and so, some of it just reflects moves that we are taking to better position the business long term.
Mike Harrison:
All right. And then wanted to also ask about the healthcare business, can you talk about what profitability looks like in that business and maybe how that has been changing or evolving over time?
Doug Baker:
Yes, healthcare we'd expect OI for the year to be roughly flat. But it really reflects decisions to invest in the business. The Anios acquisition that we made a couple of years ago, in France, which really gave us even stronger beachhead in Europe, but most importantly an avenue in a number of other markets around the world, has proven to be a great acquisition. And so we continue to invest in real strong growth opportunities. And we're happy to do that. In Europe, as I mentioned earlier, we're seeing 6% organic growth in the healthcare business, and we'll feed that.
Mike Harrison:
All right, thanks very much.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of P.J. Juvekar with Citi. Please proceed with your questions.
Eric Petrie:
Hi, Doug. This is Eric Petrie on for PJ. Historically food & beverage and water growth rates are in the mid single digits. But now with your digital investments and market share gains do you see this upper single-digit sustainable into 2020?
Doug Baker:
Well, you know what -- look, we are working hard to always increase what we'll consider normal. And I think there's a lot of legs; I mean water has got quite a bit of momentum. We've got good momentum in F&B. We don't see anything sitting here today that's going to make us change our view that that's what we should be growing -- that's the rate we should be growing the business. I also don't know what 2020 is going to bring us. So I don't want to sit here and commit to 8% on water organically as our terminal value. With that said, there's significant upside in that business. We got a great team, great technology, and they're executing well. So I would expect that growth rate to be above average for the company.
Eric Petrie:
Okay. Secondly, I wanted to ask about your M&A pipeline and what you're seeing in terms of valuations. And does your EPS guidance of 10% to 14% include any bolt-on deals in second-half?
Doug Baker:
Yes, look, it does include any bolt-ons, obviously anything that probably comes on the remainder of this year is likely to be dilutive as it is accretive just because there's not much time left in the year. But that doesn't stop us from doing the deals. We really look and focus on do we believe we're going to get a good return for shareholders out of a deal, not immediate accretion, dilution. But all of them would be incorporate in our forecast already. Our pipeline is large, and I would say slower multiples. And so as a consequence we're going to remain disciplined. We are doing deals, we are buying companies, we're even with the prices higher than we might like. We know we have such significant upside that we can turn it into a very good return deal for our shareholders, and we'll continue to do that. But we're going to exercise discipline, as you would expect us to.
Eric Petrie:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Andrew Whitman with Robert W. Baird. Please proceed with your questions.
Andrew Whitman:
Great. Thanks for taking my question. I guess I just wanted to dig in to the margin profile a little bit more by looking at what seems to be the two biggest factors, which are raw material costs as well as the cost savings program that you guys have been undergoing here, and hoping that you could quantify the increase year-over-year in raw materials that you saw, as well as the amount of cost savings that you recognized in the quarter or maybe annualized exit rate just so we could get a sense of what's driving your very good margin improvement in the quarter?
Doug Baker:
Yes, for cost savings it was a little over $20 million year-on-year in terms of what it delivered in the quarter. In terms of raw materials were fairly benign in Q2 following a fairly hefty bill in Q1. Let me just get to that, so I don't give you the wrong number. Yes, raw materials were just up modestly in Q2, and we expect them to be below last year in the second-half. So -- but it wasn't a material impact on Q2 one way or another, it just wasn't positive or a significant negative.
Andrew Whitman:
Great. Thank you for the color. That's all I had.
Operator:
Thank you. At this time, I'll turn the floor back over to Mike Monahan for closing remarks.
Mike Monahan:
Thank you. That wraps up our second quarter conference call. This call and the associated discussion slides will be available for replay in our Web site. Thanks for your time today, and participation, and best wishes for rest of the day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.
Operator:
Greetings, and welcome to Ecolab First Quarter 2019 Earnings Release Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce Michael Monahan. Thank you, Mr. Monahan. You may now begin your presentation.
Michael Monahan:
Thank you. Hello everyone, and welcome to Ecolab's first quarter conference call. With me today is Doug Baker, Ecolab's Chairman and CEO; and Dan Schmechel, our CFO. A discussion of our results, along with our earnings release and the slides referencing the quarter's results and our outlook, are available on Ecolab's Web site at ecolab.com/investor. Please take a moment to read the cautionary statements in these materials, stating that this teleconference and the associated supplemental materials include estimates of future performance. These are forward-looking statements, and actual results could differ materially from those projected. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are described under the Risk Factor section and our most recent Form 10-K, and in our posted materials. We also refer you to the supplemental diluted earnings per share information in the release. Starting with a brief overview of the results, continued sales growth and margin expansion drove Ecolab's double-digit earnings per share growth in the first quarter. Pricing, new business gains, and product innovation lead the sales and operating income growth, which along with cost efficiency actions of reduced tax rate and lower interest expenses yielded the first quarter's 13% adjusted earnings per share increase. Moving on to some highlights from the quarter, and as discussed in our press release, acquisition adjusted fixed currency sales increased 3% as the industrial and other segments both showed strong sales gains, and along with modest growth in the institutional segment more than offset a slight sales decline in energy. Adjusted fixed currency operating margins increased 80 basis points, continuing the good acceleration shown throughout 2018. Growth was lead by double-digit gains in the industrial, energy, and other segments. Net operating income increase drove 13% growth in adjusted diluted earnings per share to $1.03, representing another quarter of double-digit adjusted EPS growth. Currency translation was an unfavorable $0.04 per share in the quarter. We continue to make progress on the spin-off our upstream business. We currently expect the spin-off to be completed by mid-2020. We continue to work aggressively to drive growth, winning new business through our innovative new products in sales and service expertise, as well as driving pricing, productivity, and cost efficiencies to grow our top and bottom lines, and improve rates across all of our segments. Our digital investments are developing well, and we look for them to add an expanding range of new actionable insights for our customers to improve their operations, enhance their experience working with us, and increase our sales force effectiveness. We continue to expect consolidated 2019 adjusted diluted earnings per share to rise 10% to 14% to the $5.80 to $6 range as volume and price gains and cost efficiency benefits more than offset the impact of moderating deliberate product cost increases and business investments. Currency translation is expected to be an unfavorable $0.11 per share in 2019. Second quarter adjusted diluted earnings per share are expected to be in the $1.36 to $1.46 range, up 7% to 15%. Currency translation is expected to be an unfavorable $0.05 per share in that quarter. In summary, we expect improving top line momentum in 2019, which should more than offset moderating deliberate product cost increases and unfavorable currency exchange and along with cost efficiency actions yield a 10% to 14% adjust diluted earnings per share growth. We continue to make the right investments in the key areas of differentiation including product innovation, digital investments to develop superior growth for this year and for the future. And now here is Doug Baker with some comments.
Doug Baker:
Thanks Mike and hello. So a quick overview, look, we had a very solid start to the year and are in a good position to deliver 2019. On the plus side, Industrial sales were very strong so were margins as pricing is overcoming inflationary pressures that we have been feeling leading to margin recovery. Energy also had strong margin recovery even with predicted soft sells of -2%. Our other segments, our other specialty businesses QSR and FRS were strong also. The only disappointing news is Institutional whose sales were weaker than expected. The underlying sales were 4% U.S. and 3% globally. This is better clearly than the 1% reported but still off expectations by a point or so as distribution inventories were reduced, it happens frequently, and the exited business we discussed last quarter converted quicker than we had forecast. We expect the Institutional business to show improvement and reported an underlying sales through the year particularly in the second half. So, as we finished the first quarter and move into the balance of the year, we are well-positioned we believe. The heaviest lifting of our U.S. SAP implement is behind us with our fourth and final supply chain wave completed in the first quarter of '19. Our pricing, cost savings, innovation, digital, and talent initiatives are all on track. A new business is tracking ahead of last year's record pace. As a result, we expect to deliver double digit adjusted EPS for the year ending every quarter and most importantly leave the year with good momentum as well. So with that, I am going to turn it back to Mike who will open up Q&A.
Michael Monahan:
That concludes our formal remarks. As a final note before we start Q&A, we plan to hold our annual tour of our booth at the National Restaurant Association Show in Chicago on Monday May 20. Looking further ahead, we also plan to hold our 2019 Investor Day on Thursday September 5. If you have any questions, please contact our office. Operator, would you please begin the question-and-answer period?
Operator:
Yes, thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question is coming from the line of Gary Bisbee with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please proceed with your question.
David Ridley-Lane:
Hi, this is David Ridley-Lane filing in for Gary Bisbee. Can you discuss the revenue trends in Europe particularly in your core segments, Institutional and Industrial?
Doug Baker:
Yes. We had a strong quarter in Industrial than Institutional. Industrial was organic 5 and Institutional was down a point. QSR had a fairly strong quarter, so if we put them together you end up with a little better answer. Institutional, Europe, I think is an area where we feel like we are doing the right things to improve this. We put a new GM in Europe late last year. The new GM, Martin [indiscernible] starting Institutional; he was the GM who turned around Pest [ph] North America. We have added a sales field leadership position in Europe reporting to Martin. And collectively, that team is focusing on three things, localizing innovation. We have got too global in much of our institutional approach. We want to make sure that we are doing the right things and making sure our innovation is tailored for local approach. We are also enhancing field execution discipline. This is really the key role in the sale field leadership position. We are also adding sales fire power by converting some field resources we are little heavy and converting them into corporate account selling resources. Obviously, it's not same bodies in every case, but it's the same money.
David Ridley-Lane:
And then as a just a quick follow-up, heard the comment on new business growth, could you maybe quantify that a little bit? Or, put that into context of your hiring -- average hiring on the sales force? Chances are getting increased productivity out of sales force as well of just hiring more people? Thank you.
Doug Baker:
Yes, over 2018, we added about 3% in sales and service resources last year. So, we feel we are in a good position to take care of the growth that we are generating as we move forward.
David Ridley-Lane:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Chip Moore with Canaccord Genuity. Please proceed with your question.
Chip Moore:
Thanks, wondering if you could touch on Life Sciences as it continued outperform the market very nicely there, Doug, maybe talk a bit about the runway for growth. Any changes you are seeing in the competitive there?
Doug Baker:
Yes. No, the Life Sciences business continues to do well. And while it was performing decently before we, if you will, created a focused Life Sciences business, it clearly has kicked into a higher gear. And we've averaged double digit since that point in time. Look, we love that market. So the market is global. It's consolidated many cents. If you think about the customer set, fairly fragmented competitive set. That's a good environment for us. We continue to reach out and drive our advantage which I would say is kind of three front. We have very good clean room technology. We have world class CIP technology so the lessons that we have learnt over the years in food & beverage and increasingly in other industrial applications perfectly applies here. And then, finally, the water capabilities that we have are really well-suited for this industry as well because it's a prime source for contamination potentially et cetera. And so, we are leveraging these advantages quite successfully growing that business. We made an acquisition as you will recall in U.K. Bioquell just fourth quarter is when we closed. And so that's going to also give us additional technology and a new entry point, if you will, into this market. Finally, we just added manufacturing capability in North America where we have now registered products. So, it's going to open up in much broader swath of the U.S. market. And we have been able to compete against previously. That will in essence change competitive environment for us, I don't think for the worse simply because we will be able to go after bigger part of the market.
Chip Moore:
Got it. That's helpful. And just a follow-up, in terms of you mentioned the U.K. acquisition, is there a pipeline of potential targets in that space?
Doug Baker:
Absolutely. And I would say it's relatively new space for us. And so it's not an area that we probably mined as heavily as we have others in the past. So, yes, there is a nice long list. Obviously, it's going to be at the right time, right price et cetera.
Chip Moore:
Thanks.
Operator:
Our next question is coming from the line of Manav Patnaik with Barclays. Please proceed with your questions.
Manav Patnaik:
Thank you. Good afternoon, Doug. Just on the Institutional side, you talked about the distribution inventory issue. Could you just elaborate that -- elaborate on that and maybe in past quarters where it might have happened so that we can take a look back? And if that was the main reason why you were a point or two behind your expectations there?
Doug Baker:
Yes. Clearly, it was one of the issues. I would say distributor inventories move up and down and we have printouts from the distributors. So we know where every case moves to. Meaning, we have a very good understanding of consumption in the industry, and as a consequence it's very easy for us to understand what's happening in terms of distributor inventories up or down based on ins and outs if you will. So this happens almost every year in a quarter, we have some conversation. Last year, in the first quarter, our conversation was the opposite. Distributors had built inventory during that quarter and we talked about how the reporting number was a little stronger than the actual underlying sales at that time and that don't expect that immediately in the second quarter, but we expect to end the year in a 5% run rate. So this happens frequently. If I were going to sum up institutional, I would say this. We expected a downtick in Q1, part because of the previously announced [indiscernible] low margin business. However, it was worse than we expected which we talked about in my opening remarks and Mike referred to. So one, the low margin business exited faster than we had forecast and expected. That's not going to result in any change long-term. It's just the timing issue. The distributors did drop inventory in the quarter, which happened typically we'll see a rebalancing in that come back and follow-on quarters, I can't predict if that's Q2 or Q3. It's probably one of those two. In the final piece, I would describe for lack of a better term is the fog of war, and this is related to the SAP U.S. implementation. This doesn't mean we lost consumption because of SAP -- we didn't. But when you do these implementations, and I'll just remind you, we had four waves in the U.S. [technical difficulty] a couple of months ago. The first wave was the February before and wave three was in quarter four. And what happens during these waves is you preload i.e. build inventory in your direct customers and in the trade. You do it in case you have a supply chain short-circuit as part of cutover. Now, we never saw a short circuit. We were able to get up and running very quickly in every one of our waves, but you still prepare as if that may happen so that you don't end up shorting customers. But as a consequence after these waves was all this rebalancing activity. And so it's noisy short-term and hard to go figure out exactly what's happening.
, :
So when we look at all the underlying things, pricing, new business, other than the low margin stuff I've talked about, a lot of stuff is exactly on track. We know that if we continue to focus on these things we'll show improvement. The key metrics to us are new business and pricing. If we drive these, and we expect to, the rest self cures. The loss is annualized the distributor inventory is rebalanced, and the SAP implementation costs which are not insignificant by the way and in 70% hit institutional are also recouped. So, there's some natural like margin lift as we move through this just as we start getting through this noisy period. We think we'll see an improvement in Q2. I'd say modest, but a more significant improvement as we get into the second half in institutional. So I think we have a good understanding of what's going on. Business is doing what it needs to do to go drive value and we expect institutional to be a strong business as it always is.
.:
So when we look at all the underlying things, pricing, new business, other than the low margin stuff I've talked about, a lot of stuff is exactly on track. We know that if we continue to focus on these things we'll show improvement. The key metrics to us are new business and pricing. If we drive these, and we expect to, the rest self cures. The loss is annualized the distributor inventory is rebalanced, and the SAP implementation costs which are not insignificant by the way and in 70% hit institutional are also recouped. So, there's some natural like margin lift as we move through this just as we start getting through this noisy period. We think we'll see an improvement in Q2. I'd say modest, but a more significant improvement as we get into the second half in institutional. So I think we have a good understanding of what's going on. Business is doing what it needs to do to go drive value and we expect institutional to be a strong business as it always is.
Manav Patnaik:
That's super helpful with the color. Maybe just along the same lines on industrial, like, should we think of that 7% growth is sustainable or maybe there's some timing in, it might sort of stabilize later?
Doug Baker:
Yes, look our industrial business is really led by water and F&B have obviously been strengthening sequentially for a number of quarters. It's driven by both pricing activity and by volume, volume driven by a lot of new business which we've been talking about right in almost every call how we're having very good new business success. That's clearly in the water and F&B business in particular, also in institutional et cetera. The food and beverage rate, organic growth rate is 7%. I wouldn't say that's our terminal value but F&B has really done a heck of a job partnering with water to bring outsized value to customers and this turned into big sales with big players. Now annualize again some of these sales in quarter, so every quarter is not going to be a seven organic. But with that said, we expect to have a very strong year in F&B and a very strong year in water. So it's exactly sustainable. I'm not going to commit that to every quarter but we expect mid to high single digit organic growth rates in these businesses and we also are starting to see the margin leverage that we've talked about, we had significant raw material and logistic inflation impacting all of our businesses but in particular our industrial businesses. And so, they've been on pricing and this pricing is now starting to overwhelm the inflation in that business and we're starting to recoup the margin losses that we've seen. But this isn't going to be overnight either. Right, this is going to take us some time to rebuild these margins but you should expect to see positive margin build throughout this year and it's going to need to continue into next year. So, some of that's going to come from pricing, some from cost savings, some from doing a better job operating supply chain now that over 80% of our volume is on SAP. So we just have better visibility and a better and a more easier, if you will kind of foundation to run on. So those are not the key things to look for and watch particularly in the industrial business.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies. Please proceed with your questions.
Laurence Alexander:
Good afternoon. Two questions, so first on the institutional growth rate as you think about the cadence of this year and the pricing initiatives you have underway, should we see that business sort of exit the year at about a 4% to 5% kind of run rate? Is that a fair way to think about it and secondly can you give a little bit of flavor about colloidal and how long you think that can sustain a double-digit growth rate?
Doug Baker:
Yes, I'll do the small one first. Colloidal, I would say colloidal is an interesting technology. We have it, there's capacity constraints in the world and other areas will continue to drive the growth there. But that business we're going to continue to manage, we think very intelligently for cash and return and other things. We want to do the right thing for our customers. But we're also going to do the right things for shareholders as we look at this business. In institutional, yes I would say there's really not a caveat because if you want to say do we expect to be at a 4% to 5% run rate if on December 31, the answer would be yes because by that time, we would have no longer be lapping the lost business, right. It would be pretty much out of our sales. So I think that would be a comfortable yes that we would exit the year at that run rate because of that.
Laurence Alexander:
Okay. And can you give a bit of a flavor for how you're thinking about the sales force incentive programs that is are you comfortable with the current sets or are we going to go through one of these periodic refresh and refocus my calls. Can you just give us a sense for where is your rationale on that?
Doug Baker:
I would say we re-look at comp every year and make minor adjustments almost every year. And there are episodic times where we go through major adjustment in a given business meaning we went through one in past about three years ago quite successfully I would add you could even you could even see it in the business but we change a comp there dramatically. In institutional, there's certainly areas of that business where we are going to revise comp programs part to reflect new regulations or the way regulations are being enforced and some because we think it's going to just and we'll do that in a way like we did with past where I don't think it's going to be visible to anybody except those in the business. You know we want great people. We want great people the incentive to do the right thing and also incentive enough where they want to continue to stay here and can make enough money to make a career out of it. And so we always have evolutionary change around here and I wouldn't there's nothing on the horizon that I would say would be noteworthy.
Laurence Alexander:
And maybe if you wouldn't mind just one last one on health care is there a reason why the business model there hasn't flexed more in response to this the disappointing growth rates. I mean like why it hasn't evolved into like a partnership with an insurance company or some kind of other way to get an end run around the bottlenecks that you've seen in terms of the purchasing managers.
Doug Baker:
Yes, well look we've certainly explored a bunch of different things here. Here's what I would say. You know the healthcare business our program business which is really what we're emphasizing continues to do well. These are programs around room cleaning to reduce HAIC around all our turnover and accelerating turnover both time and efficacy and also in central sterile et cetera. These programs are doing quite well. The issue which is principally in the U.S. is just one of portfolio mix. These programs are still relatively small versus what I'd call the historic product approach. And as time goes on obviously since the programs are growing so much faster than the products, they're becoming a larger percent of the portfolio. And what you'll see is that sales will reflect that - but that just is going to take some time and the team I think is doing exactly the right thinking and after that but that is having good uptake. In Europe our mix is a little bit better and in Europe we expect to have mid single digit, low single digit organic growth rate, [indiscernible] is doing well in Europe, they've got very strong program mix in a number of areas. Some of those we're exporting to other parts of the world including the U.S. once we get registrations. So I would say underneath the covers we think the healthcare business is more right than wrong. It's certainly we would like to accelerate it. We would like to see faster better results too. But if you look underneath, good things are happening and we want to make sure that we stay focused on what we think the long term advantage is.
Laurence Alexander:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of John Roberts with UBS. Please proceed with your questions.
Josh Spector:
Hey guys this is Josh Spector on for John. Just a question around energy, given some drivers with spin around customer buying patterns shifting and maybe moving a bit away from kind of the Ecolab heritage model and slower growth there in the quarter, do you see any risk of another shift going on that could impact the second half? Or do you have pretty good visibility into the sales growth there?
Doug Baker:
Yes. The energy quarter if you will -- the soft sales of negative 2%, I mean -- we expected it to be flattish coming into this quarter -- plus or minus. And so the 2% to us what kind of weather at plus 2's then minus 2, no doubt about it but it was around where we expected it to be, it's not the easiest business to forecast and really we expected these types of top line results for two reasons. One there is a dramatic reduction in just activity, a lot of this is occurring in Permian. I mean if you look at others in this business you're going to see -- I would say even lower sales rates than we had. And so we're not alone. It'd probably be on the better side. The second reason was we were going against a high base i.e. first quarter last year was an 11% growth quarter and even at the time we said it was in part driven by one timers and we knew those one timers weren't going to recur again in this quarter. Hence the reason we were sort of bearish on the first quarter. So it's not a change in buying pattern, it's not a change and all of a sudden we're out of favor at all. We would expect that as the year goes on, you're going to see stronger top line performance. And most importantly, even in the first quarter with negative 2%, with double-digit LI growth in that business. As we are recovering on the margin side handily due to the pricing work that we talked about every quarter last year and is continuing and now is being coupled with excellent cost savings efforts as well impacting both gross profit and SG&A. So we expect mid-single digits in this business for the year top line, and outstanding margin recovery driving even much better live results for the year as well. So I'm not, I'm not really worried. I think the stuff that the energy business is doing is smart right, and it's going to bear fruit for the year.
Josh Spector:
Okay, thanks. And just a quick follow-up on around the energy spend. I don't know if it's too early to ask about any numbers around that. But I guess if I try to think about how much amortization stays with Ecolab and goes with the spin, do you have a rough cut there?
Doug Baker:
Yes, $170 million of amortization goes with the spin.
Josh Spector:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.
David Begleiter:
Thank you. Thank you, Doug. You have new competitors, the last six to nine months in water and institutional. How are they acting in the marketplace?
Doug Baker:
Well, I guess our new competitor and institutional would be new owner.
David Begleiter:
New owner, yes, I'm sorry.
Doug Baker:
Yes. And I would say they're acting like they've always acted. So I don't, we really don't see a significant difference, it can be really aggressive at times bidding on new business. This has been a pattern for years and years. There have been frequent times over the last -- I've been here 30 years anytime during the 30 years, but over the last 15, 20 I have a better memory where we've blinked and walked from business where we're not going to make money, in some cases not make cash. And we don't think that's smart to stay in those situations. And we've had some recently, but we've had them two years ago, three years ago, five years ago, seven years ago, 10 years ago. In many instances, these businesses end up back with us, not a 100% but a fairly high percentage. And what we want to make sure that we do is maintain our ability to do a great job for customers. We are there for customers when they need us and we've got to be able to make money so that we continue to invest in innovation, and digital and all the like, and so we got to be play a disciplined game, as well, and that's the story there. On the water side, you know, GE Water is known by SUEZ. I don't know that there's, a dramatic difference day-to-day. We were, we thought we are well positioned against GE Water. And I'm not, we respected them. We respect them now that they're owned by SUEZ, but we remain in our minds quite well positioned as a competitor in this area. And you can see it in the strong results. So I don't think our competitive environment has really dramatically changed one way or another.
David Begleiter:
Very good and just selling, you delivered product costs. I know there'll be migrating of the year. What were they up year-over-year in Q1, Doug, and what should that be up by the end of the year on a quarter or maybe on a Q4 over prior year basis?
Doug Baker:
Yes, we're forecasting 3% to 4% inflation for the year. You know, I'll be honest, for the first quarter was, the most significant year-on-year 5 plus probably percent increase in the first quarter, but at a base for two reasons. I mean, mostly because we start running into an inflated base. If you will i.e. raw materials got more expensive throughout the year last year. So the Delta decreases as you move forward. As long as you don't see dramatic inflation this year, we have some inflation forecasts this year. We've held that forecast last year, we got burned on raw materials. The indices we follow, we are completely wrong last year. If you looked at the indices this year, they would say that inflation is going to be less than we have forecast currently. We don't know if that turns into upside for us or not. We're being a little more conservative this year based on last year's experience which means we'll be wrong two years in a row I hope.
David Begleiter:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.
Vincent Andrews:
Thanks. If I could just ask a question on pricing and you touched on this a bit earlier in the institutional comments but just want to know how price was across the segments if there were any meaningful discrepancies or anywhere where you were still need to work a little bit harder. And then just within institutional is price flattered at all by the exit of the low margin businesses in any meaningful way?
Doug Baker:
No, but they would show up in for us in more mix and it would have an absolute price the way that we measure the margin stuff, I would say two things. We continue to accelerate on price, if you will, it's five quarters in a row. And so, it still is around the 3% rate, industrial had the strongest price number they needed because one they were probably the furthest behind and have been playing catch up and doing a very good job doing it but they got a couple of years a big raw material inflation numbers in their business and they're working to recover those and obviously working with customers to do it in a way that works et cetera. Institutional always takes more a slow and steady approach on pricing. They don't get hit in rock significantly with raw materials as some of our other businesses do, partisan mix of the raw materials in part is solids and the other technology that they've deployed over the years and so they've got a lower more like a two price if you will year-on-year and energy was also 3% in the quarter as well, energy also obviously see significant plays and we expect to continue to get pricing throughout the year, we need to, we have margin recovery goals. Our plan isn't to expand margins during this cycle but we certainly our goal isn't to lose margin either as a result of this, we'll expand margins through our own efforts internally i.e. leveraging the SAP implementation and other work to help improve margin and or innovation but that that's where we are on price. I would say team is doing a very good job in a very, it's always hard.
Vincent Andrews:
And just as a follow-up on the de-stocking, it sounds like from your comments earlier that this would be something that would take place within a quarter that it wouldn't straddle two quarters based on your look at the printouts of the books and stuff in the conversations with the distributor customers is that correct?
Doug Baker:
Yes, we don't expect. I mean look we don't control and absolutely obviously, if I went on history and we go through this literally every year in a quarter and obviously when it helps us nobody remembers it and when it hurts us you don't remember what the bounces back. And I would say this is a very normal thing, we would expect it to bounce back and as I said earlier, I don't know exactly if that second quarter or third quarter but it's probably one of the two most likely that's typically the pattern we've seen in the past and there's no reason to believe that that won't be the pattern we see here.
Vincent Andrews:
Okay, thank you very much.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Hamzah Mazari with Macquarie. Please proceed with your question.
Hamzah Mazari:
Hey, good afternoon. Thank you. My first question is any update you can provide as to your circling the customer initiative, specifically which verticals it seems like food and beverage is one which may be sort of optimized in terms of selling your entire product suite to corporate clients and where you think there's room to sort of improve that?
Doug Baker:
Yes, look it's been a key part of our strategy and a key part of our success particularly in industrial as we put Nalco, I mean, Nalco a part of Ecolab. We came out of the gates and said one of the key areas we wanted to focus on was the F&B market. And if you look at what's occurred in F&B over the last six years, it's been really amazing. And if you look at the brewery business in particular, how we've been able to very successfully marry water in our F&B cleaning and place, food safety technologies together to create outsized value for customers, it's driven share and it's been a key part of how we went to market strategically, how we created value for customers and the reason that we've won coupled with that is always pest elimination. It's also lead us to understand other parts of the pest business like fumigation, and it's then lead pest to start one buying and acquiring some fumigation businesses which we've done recently and starting to build a larger business in that area because it's core to the F&B market. So that's a great example of how circle the customer drives value for customer's share for the company and also opens the door to new opportunities as well. There are other examples. I mean, I can do -- we're watching technology being leveraged in QSR and in some instances in our food retail business, coupling with the institutional capabilities. I mean, there's plenty more, but I don't want to take up too much more time.
Hamzah Mazari:
No, that's helpful, and just a follow-up. On health care -- and you may have touched on this earlier in a question, but specifically, does your go-to-market strategy in that segment need to change? Specifically, you know, more of a C-suite type sale? Are you just talking to the wrong people in health care? I'm just curious around go-to-market, if that's a drag at all on growth. So you may have touched on this, but any color there? Thank you.
Doug Baker:
No, I think we talked health care earlier. So I'll just sum this like I think the way -- we've really focused strategically on program selling there. And the programs that we have out in the market are growing and we're having success selling them. And those are programs around room cleaning and HAIC reduction, operating theater, if you will, changeover and also better efficacy and then also in the central, and both programs are working and growing. Now, the issue which is principally U.S. is they're just -- they're still a relatively small piece of the total portfolio. So that failed to sort of mask if you will, by the product sales that represents the balance of the portfolio where you don't have the same strategic advantages that we have in program selling. So our nose is to the grindstone, sell programs, keep focusing, the portfolio will shift overtime, because it's growing at 3x, 4x faster than the others -- we know what will happen and then you'll start seeing the sales come through, but that's our strategic focus and there we are -- this is clearly calling on the right people. We're not flying the white flag on the product side, but it's just a different competitive environment and equation which is why we're -- our efforts are going towards programs.
Hamzah Mazari:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your questions. And so, moving on to Tim Mulrooney with William Blair.
Tim Mulrooney:
Good afternoon.
Doug Baker:
Hello.
Tim Mulrooney:
So first, Doug, your industrial business, can you just give us an update on the industrial business in China? It's hard to know what's going on over there sometimes, but your numbers are so strong. So just curious if the market is getting better or worse or about the same?
Doug Baker:
Yes, look our China business, overall, was mid singles growth -- mid single-digit growth in the first quarter, decent profit. I would say it was really driven by the institutional side so I'm getting to the point you'd like me to talk about. And institutional collectively was double-digits doing quite well. The industrial side of the business was flat to down modestly in total, really driven by paper, which was down more dramatically. They're not making as much corrugated for export shipments in the meantime as we go through this. So certainly we're impacted somewhat with the trade discussions there. We don't see this ultimately turtling our China business for the year by any means. We think it'll probably. One, if we get the trade agreement figured out, it'll open the door, but even barring that as we look at the progression and everything else, we think we got more good and bad net business and we're going to have a good year either way.
Tim Mulrooney:
Okay. Thanks for the update. My follow-up is on SG&A, SG&A adjusted for one time, it was actually lower than the last year despite revenue growth. Is that primarily the result of your cost savings initiative and do you expect a similar dynamic through the remainder of the year?
Doug Baker:
Yes, I would say SG&A certainly we have, strong cost savings initiatives in place. We would have said in the first quarter probably delivered about 20 million bucks, which is on page to the 80 that we've talked about. For a handicap the year, we probably have upside and the cost savings side of the initiative pile in terms of you need some upside because you never know what's going to happen and other things like FX, et cetera. So yes, those are driving it. We're also leveraging technology in a number of parts of our business as we go forward, and this is also enabling us to do more via each person. So it's a combination of things but cost saving certainly is a driver.
Tim Mulrooney:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets.
John McNulty:
Yes, thanks for taking my question. A quick or one or two of them, one on the raw material front, where are the buckets that you're actually seeing the inflation because it does seem a little bit counterintuitive, given oil coming off the way that it has that you are forecasting something in kind of the low-to-mid single digits for the year. So maybe help us to understand where you're seeing some of those pressures.
Doug Baker:
Yes, well, oil year-on-year is up nearly 50%. So, it's you know, we got to go compare back to Q1 last year. That's what our comparison is here. But beyond if you will sort of oil derivative raw materials, certainly caustic is up for us, transportation costs grew double-digit last year, particularly in the U.S., but we had inflation also in other markets, Europe in particular. So, our two biggest markets, if you will, so the number of areas where there has been inflation in raw materials. And you know, I would say last year was significant it followed a fairly significant year, the year before. So as you kind of a two-year run, we are forecasting, moderation and the inflation rate, but not deflation this year. We still think that's the right forecast. And we hope we are on.
John McNulty:
Got it. And then it's been a couple months since you announced the split or potential or the upcoming split of the upstream energy business. Can you speak to whether or not you've seen interest from potential buyers in that business at this point?
Doug Baker:
Yes, that's not something we would comment on publicly one way or another.
John McNulty:
Got it. Fair enough. Thanks for the time.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Christopher Parkinson with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.
Christopher Parkinson:
Thank you. So when you look at your various platforms, what are the largest opportunities to improve margins over the long-term outside of simply price cost is suppressed, perhaps shifting more even more, even more I'd say to us service model and just, I know institutional in Europe has clearly been a longer term opportunity, but where are the other ones that long-term you know guys should be thinking about? Thank you.
Doug Baker:
Yes, look, I think there are a number of areas. I mean, you started in Europe and we had a 3% OI margin in Europe and are now nine and knocking on double-digit. And we've done all that over 7, 8-year period of time. And I would say the opportunities that existed there still exist and they exist everywhere else. And so, as we now have SAP implemented through our supply chain and our finance backbone, and in North America, we now have visibility and different visibility into the U.S. markets. And we've had ever via ERP. I mean, it's replacing a system called Collinet [ph], which we think is 40 years old, but we can't find any marker on the box. So, let me just say our visibility is enhanced significantly. So we would expect there's significant savings in supply chain. The -- if you will, kind of free channels throughout North America. The pricing on those channels has changed dramatically over the last 2 years. We know that we've got to recognize that in the way that we shift supply or manufacturing in plants and where do we supply, what customer from where and how do we do that? There's significant money there. We know that there's a number of policy issues that we're getting after that didn't reflect the current reality and now -- do that is going to reduce the number of shipments it takes to shift the volume we're shipping today. So we know we've got to get better standards there; formulation reductions, not just SKU, the most important part of SKU is formulas, if you reduce formulas, we reduce raw materials and end up with more scale and buying. And so there's a lot of work around that area, right now in energy but increasingly in our water business and in other areas as well. If you look at just relative margins by business, we know there's significant upside still in water and some of the other businesses that came over the Nalco acquisition. Their margins have been enhanced significantly since they've come over. But the team does not believe we're at the edge there or at the end by any means. And we want to keep driving that. So we talk about 50 to 75 basis points in sort of your typical run rate. Clearly with the announcement of the accelerate initiative and the cost savings there and also that we're in margin recovery zone time because of those recent run ups we expect to run significantly over that range for a period of time. We need to recover and get back on track and margin build.
Christopher Parkinson:
And yes I apologize for the stereotypical simple sell side question but can you comment on the overall M&A landscape particularly in Asia and Europe. Thank you very much.
Doug Baker:
Well Europe's probably as good as it gets in the U.S. right now simply because a lot of people were unsettled. And with that often comes opportunity certainly in the U.K. but I would also say on the continent in terms of Asia you know I mean the challenge in Asia as is scale and culture i.e. can you buy a company that's meaningful enough in size to be worth the risk and the effort to bring it on an integrated and then culturally and this isn't the Asian culture just make sure it is a company what's the company's culture and how it been built in terms of how it sells and creates value et cetera. So there, you know, we've got to be make sure that it's a company that we would have a right to own and run as we go forward. Generally I guess you know I think or we're going to enter a period where you know acquisitions of even size are going to make sense again. I know it'll happen I don't know exactly when it's going to happen. But being smart about the price you pay is always a good idea. And it proves out over time we believe that value is created through return on invested capital and our ability to generate cash. And those are the things that we look very carefully at when we make acquisitions that can we do those things over a period of time and the answer is yes we're all in it the answer is no we're quite careful unless it's got some seminal strategic value beyond just cash creation which is hard to find often.
Christopher Parkinson:
Great color. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Mike Harrison with Seaport Global. Please proceed with your questions.
Mike Harrison:
Hi good morning. I was wondering Doug if you can talk a little bit about what kind of trends you're seeing in restaurant foot traffic and if you could maybe talk about that by region, sounds like really, really outside of Latin America, nothing's really much to write home about.
Doug Baker:
Yes. Mike I would say I kind of agree I think you know the -- I would say this I don't think the foot traffic anywhere is going to impact our business. It's neither dramatically. I mean you know the places where you got fast, fast growth and food services Asia and you know we're all about scaling getting after share we've made a number of key moves in the last 12 months in China which we think put us in a much better position to get after that business on a faster basis. I mean it's a business it's already growing in the teens but it should do better. And we're working to do that. In the U.S. your foot traffic seems to have been soft my whole career and you know yet every time I walk into a restaurant it seems to be full. So I can't quite get over these two problems. And you know but by and large throughout that period we've had very good growth. There are a zillion restaurants we don't sell yet. We would like to sell them. So until we have 100 share we're not going to talk about foot traffic is our problem.
Mike Harrison:
All right. And then when I also ask about the strength that you're seeing in food and beverage are we seeing any improvement at all in the underlying market there or is it really just share gain that we're still capturing?
Doug Baker:
That's principally driven by share gain. I mean people are still eating obviously but you know you've got some markets that are still fighting through some challenges. But you know the team's done a very good job for all the reasons I discussed earlier partnering with water and Pepsi et cetera driving outsized value which is leading to some very significant wins.
Mike Harrison:
All right thanks very much.
Operator:
Next question is from the line of Rosemarie Morbelli with G. Research. Proceed with your questions.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
Thank you. Good afternoon everyone. Doug I was wondering if you could give us a little more detail on how the changes you have made in order to grow faster in China. You said double digit is good but you can do a lot better. So what changes have you made?>
Doug Baker:
I think in a couple of areas. So if you want to talk institutional we've organized a bit differently simply because that food service market is developing differently than markets have in the past part they get to learn from U.S. history and European history. They have concepts which don't - fit neatly in boxes and we've got to go be prepared to offer what those concepts need and a around service custom designed for those concepts not maybe the same exact service package that we've had in other markets so designed for China. So we've invested more if you will on innovation resources in China on digital for China resources in China, organize our constructive businesses a bit differently to allow a better blurring of lines and have somebody overseeing it, so they can make smart choices for customers first and by doing that for the company. So they've been a number of steps and most notably increased resources. And so for all those reasons we think we're just better positioned, we've learned a lot over the last few years. We've done decently. But as we look at it we just thought the way we were structured and the way we were resource was a hindrance if you will not - an offensive weapon and we wanted to change that.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
Okay. And then looking at -- now you have your SAP more or less internationally installed, so now that you have this, can you see the potential benefit from the restructuring to be above the 325 million that you have initially estimated?
Doug Baker:
Yes I wouldn't, I mean look, we would agree with you as long as it's positive for the business i.e. doesn't hinder our ability to deliver for customers more would be better and not lost on us. But we're not in a position right now to increase our estimate of those. I mean we just took it up 125 million from 200 -- 325 when we announced the spin, which will enable us as we all recall to both cover the 70 million of estimated stranded costs and still deliver 200 and if you will, Ecolab ex spin. And so I think it positions as well. And on the spin side there'll be more than able to cover their costs of building the kind of public company infrastructure that they need to build which they estimated 35. So I think we're in good shape there, if we can do more we will. It behooves us and the shareholders and that's what we're paid to do.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
Thanks and if I may squeeze one in. You said that you were expecting to close the Bioquell acquisition by the end of the year by the fourth quarter. Are there some issues regarding the competitive environment, are you dealing with anything that you may have to change?
Doug Baker:
Oh yes. Bioquell we did close. I mean we've close but we're going through a competitive review and you know I would say right now you know we're working with the authorities and in the appropriate way and that's the path we'll follow.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
Okay. Thanks.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Scott Schneeberger with Oppenheimer. Please proceed with your question.
Scott Schneeberger:
Thanks. Good afternoon Doug. Specialty has been a real bright spot in global institutional another good quarter and you cited I believe some business wins I saw also that second quarter may slow down a bit on new customer rollouts but still a solid year. Please elaborate a little bit on this sub-segment, what is going on with the new business wins in some of these initiatives that you've highlighted in the release. Thanks.
Doug Baker:
Yes, I would say both the QSR teams and the food retail teams are doing a really good job of one driving new business. They're leveraging innovation to do it. They have a strong pipeline. They've been at the forefront on institutional and digital food safety technology which is already making a difference and we think going to make increasingly a difference in their ability to secure new wins going forward. That's been significant development cost which has really been borne principally in the institutional side of the equation. And so you know that starts bearing fruit. I think you're going to see enhanced margin as well as we go forward. So there are a number of large opportunities that exist both in QSR and as far as U.S. and around the world that I think our team is doing a good job targeting and getting after. There are occasions. So we give you a heads up on Q2 that they may have slower than current run rate sales for a quarter that's on a lap an unusual quarter the year before where you might have had a pipeline load for a new customer i.e. you've got to build their distribution network and their stores simultaneously which just means you get four months and three you know and when you lap that it's tough to replicate it. So, we just try to give fair warning that occurs in many of our businesses occasionally through quarters throughout the year.
Scott Schneeberger:
Thanks. And one more if I could. The CapEx and free cash flow a little a little lower this year in the first quarter than last year I guess you last year a bit of a unique compier but just any thoughts -- I know it's early in the year about what we should expect from these two going forward for the full-year.
Doug Baker:
Dan, can have that one?
Dan Schmechel:
Thank you. Sure. Absolutely so, yes, you're right, it was annualized and first of all in the first quarter of '19 against a very strong performance last year in which we grew the business but consumed almost nothing in the way of incremental cash flow. So part of the year-on-year comparison is what you're seeing. Look, we still feel great both about our longer term record of delivering great cash flow generation from the company and think that 2019 will be another great example of that. So sitting here today I expect that our free cash flow conversion which is the metric that I track most closely will be in the mid 90% range. So feel good about cash flow and how it's developing and for the year.
Scott Schneeberger:
Great, thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from the line of P.J. Juvekar with Citi. Please proceed with your question.
Unidentified Analyst:
Hi. Thank you. This is [indiscernible] on for PJ. In water, could you just discuss the growth profiles underlying and in light industry versus heavy industry. And perhaps provide an update on 3D TRASAR penetration.
Doug Baker:
Yes, they were very close in fact. Not a big differentiation in growth rates between heavy and light. So both performed quite well and we expect both to perform well for the year, terms of 3D TRASAR unit penetration at this point time, I mean we're nearing 40,000 units outstanding if we give you an exact number if it's important if you want to call Mike or Andy.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay. And then secondly your first quarter volume growth to 1% is kind of lagging the overall fiscal year '18 with 4%. How do you see that going forward? And do you expect price to make up delta?
Doug Baker:
Talking about - the 1% for the company?
Unidentified Analyst:
Yes, 1% of the first quarter versus 4% for the full-year '18.
Doug Baker:
Yes, I mean the 1% was clearly impacted also by FX and FX is going to be a particular challenge in the first quarter and second quarter, but at current rates and forecast not a significant challenge in the second-half. So, some of it's just that. The other we talked, institutional, which we expect to improve, and energy we expect to improve.
Unidentified Analyst:
Great, thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. Mr. Monahan, there are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the floor back over to you for closing comments.
Michael Monahan:
Thank you. That wraps up our first quarter conference call. This conference call and the associated discussion slides will available for replay on our Web site. Thank you for your time and participation, and our best wishes for the rest of the day.
Operator:
Thank you for participation. Today's conference has concluded. You may now disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.
Operator:
Greetings and welcome to the Ecolab Fourth Quarter 2018 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mr. Mike Monahan, Senior Vice President, External Relations for Ecolab. Thank you. You may now begin.
Michael Monahan:
Thank you. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Ecolab’s fourth quarter conference call. With me today is Doug Baker, Ecolab’s Chairman and CEO; and Dan Schmechel, our Chief Financial Officer. A discussion of our results, along with our earnings release and the slides referencing the quarter’s results and our outlook, are available on Ecolab’s website at ecolab.com/investor. Please take a moment to read the cautionary statements on these materials, stating that this teleconference, the discussion and the slides include estimates of future performance. These are forward-looking statements and actual results could differ materially from those projected. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are described under Item 1A, Risk Factors, of our most recent Form 10-K and in our posted materials. We also refer you to the supplemental diluted earnings per share information in the release. Starting with a brief overview of the results, Ecolab’s strong growth momentum and double-digit adjusted earnings per share growth continued in the fourth quarter. New business gains, accelerating pricing and product innovation drove strong fourth quarter acquisition adjusted fixed currency sales and operating income growth, which along with cost efficiency actions and reduced tax rate, yielded the fourth quarter’s 12% adjusted diluted earnings per share increase. Moving on to some highlights from the quarter and as discussed in our press release, acquisition adjusted fixed currency sales increased 6%. Adjusted fixed currency operating income rose 7%, continuing the acceleration shown throughout 2018. The operating income gain, along with a lower tax rate yielded the 12% increase in adjusted diluted EPS, continuing the double-digit quarterly growth trends recorded throughout 2018. We continue to work aggressively to drive growth, winning new business through our innovative new products and sales and service expertise, as well as driving pricing, productivity and cost efficiencies to grow our top and bottom lines. Our digital investments are developing well and will add new actionable insights for our customers to improve their operations, enhance their experience working with us and increase our sales force effectiveness. We also continue to see solid underlying sales volume and pricing across all of our business segments. We expect 2019 adjusted diluted earnings per share to rise 10% to 14% to the $5.80 the $6 range, as volume and price gains more than offset the impact of higher delivered product costs and business investments. First quarter adjusted diluted earnings per share are expected to be up 8% to 16% to the $0.98 to $1.06 range. In summary, we expect continued strong top line momentum in our business over the balance of the year to more than offset higher delivered product costs and deliver operating income growth and, along with cost efficiency actions, yield double-digit adjusted diluted earnings per share growth this year. Importantly, despite the headwinds, we continue to make the right investments in key areas of differentiation, including product information, digital investments to develop superior growth for the future and we expect to sustain strong momentum as we exit the year. And now, here is Doug Baker with some comments.
Douglas Baker:
Thanks, Mike, and hello. We’ve got – I’ve got a couple of comments and I’m going to keep it brief and maybe a bit repetitive. If we look at 2019, we enter with really quite strong momentum. Q4 was solid in the positive sense of the word. We had 6% organic growth, driven in part by strong pricing, but also very solid volume. This is driven by strong new business, which we really enjoyed all year, including in the fourth quarter, we saw improving OI throughout the year and double-digit EPS in the fourth quarter and for the year as well. So as a consequence, we project 2019 to be very good as well. We’re forecasting a 10% to 14% full-year adjusted EPS range, 8% to 16% Q1 range. The year is really going to be driven by this formula
Michael Monahan:
Thanks, Doug. That concludes our formal remarks. As a final note before we start Q&A, we plan to hold our annual tour of our booth of the National Restaurant Association Show in Chicago on Monday May 20. Looking further ahead, we also plan to hold our 2019 Investor Day on Thursday September 5. If you have any questions, please contact our office. Operator, would you please begin the question-and-answer period?
Operator:
Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. We ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one brief follow-up question per caller, so that others have a chance to participate. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Gary Bisbee with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please proceed with your question.
Gary Bisbee:
Hey, guys, good afternoon. So I guess, the first question for me, obviously, pricing has really picked up and that’s been helpful to revenue growth. But as we think about – but in fairness, volume also had its best year in a number of years. So as you think about 2019, what is the cadence look like? I assume, as you start to lap the pricing, you’re unlikely to get those types of gains again on top of what you’ve got now. So is it reasonable to think that the revenue growth decelerates a bit as we move into the year, or is your optimism around volume is such that, this recent trend is sustainable on the top line? Thank you.
Douglas Baker:
We believe contributions from volume and pricing in 2019 are going to be very similar to those that we saw in 2018. And so while you’ve got raw material inflation slowing, we still forecast, it’s going to be up year-on-year. But I don’t even think it’s like spot market pricing, that’s what’s really driving our conversation with customers. Fundamentally, we don’t try to match price and inflation in any given quarter. We want to do it at a slower pace, as we’ve talked in the past, simply because it’s better for our customers. And so we’re still in the recoup mode, if you will, from a pricing standpoint for increases that we saw in parts of 2017 and all the way through 2018 and the continued forecasted increases we see in 2019. So we would expect fairly steady, if you will, collective sales growth throughout the year. We don’t think that there is a big hockey stick, i.e., it’s much faster in the first-half versus second or vice versa.
Gary Bisbee:
And then a quick follow-up. I guess, just wanted to probe your ability to prepare for the spin. Does this have any impact on either the bolt-on M&A strategy or anything else as you divert people to focus on that, or are you think that’s not going to be a huge deal as we think about what the executive team is working on over the next 12 to 18 months? Thank you.
Douglas Baker:
Yes, I mean, it’s fair. It’s absolutely a large project. I think, we worked hard to understand, if you will, where the shadow falls from this project. It will not preclude us from continuing our path of bolt-on M&A. We have a very good pipeline right now. What we create when we’re in these situations and I think we’ve done it quite successfully in the past is, we create and kind of segregate teams that are going to go focus on this. We will utilize outside services, where they are equal or better than what we can do internally as well, so that we don’t drain capacity needlessly here. If you recall, when we had, say, even the Nalco integration, we created a standalone team. We gave them a charter. They executed excellently. And if you also recall, we continue to drive very successfully sales growth and margin growth during that period of time in the rest of the businesses.
Gary Bisbee:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Manav Patnaik with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.
Greg Bardi:
Hi. This is actually Greg calling on for Manav. I just want to hit on the raw material assumptions a little bit more. Just given what happened last year in terms of the third-party assumptions ending up a little bit worse, just wondering what level of conservatism you’ve put into those assumptions?
Douglas Baker:
Yes. No, we would follow the philosophy, I think, you’re advocating. We’ll make a new mistake this year. So you’re right. I mean, if you went on the indices last year, which is basically how we formulate forecasts, it would have suggested, you would have had a much lower level of inflation in raw materials in 2018 than we actually saw. If you look at our forecast in indices, our forecast for raw materials is slightly above the indices at this point in time. We also understand that the indices are always going to be wrong one way or another, but we are certainly not being overly aggressive. We don’t believe with our raw material forecast. We’ll see what actually transpires. Obviously, if it ramps up, we have proven that we can ramp up pricing if we need to in that eventuality and that’s exactly what we would do if we needed to. And obviously, we’d probably step on the accelerate – accelerator, too.
Greg Bardi:
Okay. And then I just wanted to quickly ask about how you think about the growth trajectory for the Downstream Energy business? I think in the past, a lot of the secular growth drivers you’ve talked about for that business focus more on the upstream side. So if you could just touch on some of the drivers that have driven the nice growth on the downstream side, that would be appreciated? Thanks.
Douglas Baker:
Yes. The downstream business if you look at cyclicality, either on growth or income, is one of the steadiest businesses we have in our portfolio, not just in energy, but in total. And it’s a very steady mid single-digit top line growth business. There are a number of things that drive it. We are a global player in that market. You certainly still have significant economic growth in key parts of the world that typically drives energy consumption. The other aspect of production out of the refineries and petrochemicals, obviously, plastics. And while there are certainly pressure on some consumer plastics, plastics are absolutely critical to a number of the key sustainability initiatives. It’s a way that you lightweight materials, the way you lightweight vehicles, et cetera, is going to be through fundamentally plastics. And so there’s very steady demand story we believe as we look at this business. If you look at the past, it would also indicate that the business is quite resilient, both the end market and ours.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Chip Moore with Canaccord Genuity. Please proceed with your question.
Chip Moore:
Thanks. Doug, maybe you can talk a bit more about competitive environment by geography and institutional, in particular, and then where you are exiting some lower-margin business, maybe you can just help to quantify that for us as a headwind in 2019? Thanks.
Douglas Baker:
Yes. I’d say the – I don’t know what the competitive environment has dramatically changed by region. Certainly, Europe remains the most competitive challenged market that we compete in from an institutional standpoint. It was and is and will be we think for a considerable period of time. In terms of the low-margin comment, yes, we ended up and we’ve been through this a number of times, where through quite aggressive bids that we determined weren’t smart to match. We have exited loss, whatever word you want to use, some business, principally in the contract catering arena. This will have some top line impact, probably less impact on the bottom line, simply because it wasn’t high-margin business to begin with, and then we faced very aggressive competitive bids. If you go back, this isn’t very different than the situation we faced in food and beverage for a considerable period of time, where a number of instances, we decided not to match bids. The business went away for a period of time and virtually all. I can think of one piece of business that we have not resecured after going through that in the food and beverage market. Obviously, we will work to prove that we’re the right partner for these companies going forward, but we can’t do business when it’s going to be at a very problematic financial situation. The reason we’re in business is to do good for society and for our customers, but also – or by the way, make money. And we do not ever see the idea of losing money as a strategic benefit. And so if we can’t prove, we’ll get costs right and do other things. This is not going to be significant. We think institutional this year is going to grow mid single digits again as a sector and institutional specific division will have mid single-digit growth this year as well.
Chip Moore:
Understood. Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.
Laurence Alexander:
Hi. Can you give a feel for on – particularly on the more on industrial facing parts of institutional, so the dairy and food and beverage and so on. What kind of dispersion that you’re seeing in terms of acceptance or traction with the price increases? Are there any pockets regional or otherwise on pricing gaining traction where it’s being more difficult? Secondly, as you think about the digitalization investments, what would you need to see to – over the next couple of years to significantly change the pace of investment?
Douglas Baker:
Yes. Well, the first question around industrial and where we’re seeing pricing, I mean, we saw a significant improvement in pricing capture throughout the year and ended over 3% in our industrial businesses in the fourth quarter. We expect that to continue as we enter 2019, as I discussed earlier. You’re right, regionally, it’s not exactly the same number everywhere. I would say, China, which was a net plus in the pricing column, is always a more challenged market, it’s cultural, it’s historical, et cetera. But we are pushing and securing price there, just not at the same rate that we’re seeing in some of the other markets, but we also know that ultimately that’s got to change too. So we feel good about the ability to capture price. I think at the heart of it is that the value we bring to customers is tangible. They understand it. They’re willing to pay for it, because they know that net we are a better deal than their alternatives, and we work very hard to merchandise and prove that day in, day out, and it really comes from the significant water and CO2 savings or energy savings that we help drive within their facility, which often are greater than the total bill they pay us. So that’s an important part of the equation, important reason we get price. And the second question, digital. I would say, what do we need to see? Well, I mean to me, this is one of the most critical things that we need to do. We have huge built-in advantages that we need to leverage. And I think those advantages play really well in a digital future. We have nearly 3 million customer sites, probably 90% we’re collecting information today. But a very small fraction of those are connected to the cloud at the moment. Connecting those dispensers, which are collecting unique information to the cloud isn’t technically hard and costs have been going down. And so we’re on a real mission to go get those connected. The information streams that we have will be unique. We have unique ways of analyzing this, because we have know-how and the ability then to translate this into advantage for customers we think is dramatic. We’ve done this on a fairly large scale industrial, where, if you will, cost of capital isn’t as sensitive, simply because you may be taking out millions out of a given unit versus thousands and we have proven the concept. And one of the reasons, I think, you really see water moving, food and beverage moving is our ability to capture information and utilize it to the benefit of customers. We now have some very large-scale wins and tests going on and big customers in the institutional area. We’re quite confident, it’s going to show the same kind of value creation as we go. So obviously, we need to continue to see fruit from this investment. But I would also say, I think, the future without investing digital is a scary place to be and a bad bet for any business to be making. So even if we have some hiccups, some stumbles or some other things, we’ve got to continue to invest here. And I think our investors would be wise to hold our feet to the fire on digital investments going forward, because it’s the safest way to guarantee a long-term successful future.
Laurence Alexander:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Tim Mulrooney with William Blair & Company. Please proceed with your question.
Tim Mulrooney:
Yes, good morning. I have two questions. The first one, how much – going back to the price raws conversation, how much were delivered product costs year-over-year in 2018? And what are your assumptions for 2019?
Douglas Baker:
Well, they’re up high single-digit, like 8% globally raw materials rate, et cetera, pretty significant. Our assumptions into this year are roughly half. So..
Tim Mulrooney:
Got it. That’s helpful.
Douglas Baker:
…so increase, but more at the 4% level.
Tim Mulrooney:
Yes. Okay, perfect. That’s what I’m looking for. And then, Doug, relative to my model, the business that outperformed the most in the back-half of 2018 was water. Were there any large orders or other one-time events that drove such strong performance? And how are you thinking about water for 2019, particularly given the difficult comps in the back-half of the year? Thank you.
Douglas Baker:
Well, if the water team is listening, I’m hoping for 20% in 2019. For the investors, I’d probably calm that down a bit. No, I would say, the water business is an annuity business, like the balance of our other businesses. So it’s not a – I mean, there can be occasions, where we have a significant investment and/ or sale, But that’s quite rare and was not the driver for the acceleration in the second-half of the year was fundamentally improved pricing certainly helped. But I would also say, big, big success in terms of driving new business – net new business, and that’s always the key to driving our top line. And the team in heavy, in light, in mining, really kind of broad. It was a broad success story. Paper obviously saw the numbers there, have done a very good job…
Tim Mulrooney:
Yes.
Douglas Baker:
Leveraging innovation to drive new sales as they go forward.
Tim Mulrooney:
Got it. Thank you.
Douglas Baker:
You bet.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of John Roberts with UBS. Please proceed with your question.
John Roberts:
Thank you. Back on the digitization efforts, as they proceed, would you expect the institutional business to go – be able to go down into smaller customers? More effectively, you’re concentrated up in the larger chains, but I don’t know whether this allows your guys to – at a lower cost to be able to provide some sort of services to the smaller restaurant chains that have been harder for you to penetrate?
Douglas Baker:
Yes, I would imagine ultimately as we continue to drive utilization of the technology and the technology continues to evolve and typically, the evolution of digital as a lower cost, not higher cost. Yes, I think you would ultimately – our focus is going to be driving superior outcomes for our customers. But I would also say, I imagine that using digital will enable us to be even more targeted and how we use our very advantageous field resources more successfully and more efficiently. And as you’re able to do that, you’ve got the best of both worlds, which is you will learn more, you can be predictive, but you can still react and have the capability of solving the problems that you want cover, which is a huge desire on our customer standpoint. So, yes, I think, it will lower cost, improve our capabilities and enable us to probably go to a broader swath of the market.
John Roberts:
And then could you give us an update on the institutional water market? You had a relatively small business and now go ahead a relatively small business. And I have kind of lost track as you’ve tried to increase your penetration there, it’s not broken out clearly?
Douglas Baker:
Yes, there would be our – the water light business would include the institutional market and food and beverage markets, et cetera. And that business has been a very consistent, if you will, mid to upper single-digit performer for quite a while. And we really, if you will, reprioritize that business. It was an important business for Nalco in the 90s. It got deprioritized in the 2000s, and we thought incorrectly so did much of their management by the way. And we have, if you will, resplit and one of the early work we did was going to redividing the Nalco water business into dedicated focused business units, much how Ecolab thinks about going to market. And I would also say much how Nalco used to go-to-market in up through the 90s. And this is proven to be a good investment and a – and good work to go through, because one of the reasons I believe we are seeing improved water results is that, we’ve gone through all of that work and now have this redivision, if you will, done largely globally and focus drives results. And in the light business, we see it as well. And so we are out there working to secure. We’ve made some acquisitions to give us route capabilities and in New York market, in particular, we want to learn from that route model and see if we can’t replicate it another large metro areas, because we think it gives us an additional means of getting after a large segment of that market.
John Roberts:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.
Vincent Andrews:
Thank you. Could you just give us some comments on the gross profit margins for the year in terms of how much improvement you think you’re going to get and you talked about overall cost for the year earlier? But how does that phase in through the year, and where do we see the inflection and GPMs? In which quarter?
Douglas Baker:
Yes. I think, here we would expect to start seeing daylight, if you will, or year-on-year improvement in gross margins, second quarter for the vast majority of the businesses. And I think, you’ll see improvement in the first quarter versus the fourth quarter in terms of margin, if you will, gross profit year -on -year decline, it will be much less. So you’re going to see the line, I think, steadily improved from second-half through the first quarter and second quarter, I’d be surprised if we didn’t have, if you will, increased margin year-on-year 2019 versus 2018 in Q2. For the year, given that we’re going to have this, I mean, it’s going to be – I don’t know 30 to 50 basis points kind of improvement this year overall. But obviously, it’s going to be stronger in the second-half than it is in the first-half as we just discussed the first quarter situation.
Vincent Andrews:
Okay. And just as a housekeeping follow-up. Any comments on cash flow generation and working capital? And you also noted a lower tax rate, I assume, it’s not materially lower?
Douglas Baker:
That’s a Dan question.
Daniel Schmechel:
Yes. So let me just say, we feel great about our cash flow in 2018. I mean finished – that was a question mid-last year. We outperformed my expectation at that time and look for 2019 to continue to be a great free cash flow generation you’re looking for sort of the yield of reported net income to free cash flow in the 90%-plus range okay? And yes, the tax rate, so clearly, we benefited in 2018 really from the U.S. corporate tax reform. Also let me just say, from a lot of good tax work that we did consistent with the new rule in terms of continuing to improve our position, but not expecting great shakes in 2019 in comparison expect the rate to be flat or maybe even tipping up a couple of tenths of a percentage point, okay.
Vincent Andrews:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Christopher Parkinson with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.
Christopher Parkinson:
Great. Thank you. Your enterprise selling has been doing pretty well, especially in F&B and Pest Elimination. Can you just give us a quick update on these teams, given the current degree of customer penetration and just how we should think about this in 2019 and 2020? Is it still safe to say we’re in the early innings? Thank you.
Douglas Baker:
Based on share, you’d have to say, we’re in early innings. And so while we’ve been in these businesses, we’re successful. In some key markets, we’re number one, but we still have significant upside from a share standpoint and we think just like a line of sight in front of us. So, we would expect the pest business to continue to perform as it has been, which is kind of high single-digit organic growth rates. They’ve been executing very well. We continue to invest in that business as we believe we need to sustain that type of growth rate. F&B had a good 2018, ended up with 6% growth in the fourth quarter, kind of organic growth rate. They too are working hard to secure pricing, too, if you will, recoup the margin that was lost as a consequence of the significant raw material run up. But in terms of top line, there are significant opportunities. I would say, the combination of water and F&B’s food safety programs is an outstanding story that our customers have really responded to. We had early success when we first, if you will, acquired Nalco and we talked about $0.5 billion in terms of sales synergy, which we also announced that we more than surpassed. I would say, the momentum is built if anything. And it’s really the team’s willingness and drive to continue to refine the story and now have that translate into new innovation, where there are synergistic innovations between water and F&B, shared platforms around 3D, et cetera, all those things, I think, bodes very well and is a reason we’ve seen a huge uptick in, I would just say, share in that space.
Christopher Parkinson:
Just a quick follow-up on healthcare. Last year, I believe or at least over the last couple of quarters, you’ve been shifting your sales approach a little versus your competitors. Can you just comment on the status of the strategy evolution? Any key differentiating offers – offerings? How you handle yourself in the hospital versus your peers? And then just overall approach to reaccelerating the growth in this business? Thank you.
Christopher Parkinson:
Yes. No, I – fair. I mean, we talked about healthcare last year and we had a, what I’ll call, like disappointing start to the year, where first-half was very low single digits. We forecasted that we would improve throughout the year into the team’s credit they did. So we exited in the fourth quarter with a 4% organic growth rate in healthcare. It’s really driven. I’d say, there’s a couple of things. The team has done a lot of very good work in terms of developing programs. And we believe they’re the right programs the team does, I do. They’ve done great work around utilizing digital technology to, I would say, further enhance those programs and it’s quite compelling stuff. What we need to do is probably sharpen the way we talked about benefits, which I mentioned in previous calls, which is certainly reduction in healthcare acquired infections and significant rate reductions. But we also need to do a better job translating that into economic benefit, and I think the team has done a lot of work there. Our program business in healthcare, if you will, the stuff that we’ve been emphasizing and putting, if you will, our real sales effort behind is growing double-digit. It’s just not the majority of the business yet. But if you continue this path over any length of time, ultimately, it becomes the dominant piece of the business in terms of size and therefore, more of that growth start showing up in the overall number.
Christopher Parkinson:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Dmitry Silversteyn with Buckingham Research Group. Please proceed with your question.
Douglas Baker:
Hello?
Operator:
Dmitry, your line is live.
Dmitry Silversteyn:
Hi, thanks. I just wanted to follow-up a couple of questions. Number one, can you talk a little bit about what’s going on given sort of the softer economic conditions in parts of the world outside of the U.S. with your restaurant and quick service business? I mean, how should we think about your ability to gain share in this – in a slower growth environment in 2019 in that space?
Douglas Baker:
Yes. I would say, we don’t think – I mean, I think, what we’re going to see the economy have any impact is probably Europe. And the U.S. is forecasted to grow slower, but we’re not that GDP sensitive. We still think it’s going to be a very solid economy, and our ability to go capture share and do things and offset lost businesses, et cetera, we think remains pretty robust in the U.S. Europe isn’t going to be a tougher environment and we think probably where you see weaker economies maybe show up. Globally, as I mentioned before, we think institutional will continue to have a good year in 2019, but Europe will probably be their soft spot.
Dmitry Silversteyn:
Okay, all right. And then just as a follow-up on the – your comment about Europe being sort of the most competitive and kind of the most difficult market for you to execute the sort of the value-added strategy that you’ve been called known for. This – you probably could have made this comment 20 years ago. And so my question is, is there anything on the horizon in Europe either from what you guys are doing or what other players are doing in terms of consolidating in that space and that geography? And if not, what’s stopping the consolidation of the industry that can result in better operating environment for the remaining players?
Douglas Baker:
Well, I wouldn’t say, we go out to consolidate an industry. It’s going to – our view is typically, if we’re going to do M&A, it’s – because it gives us the ability to enhance our offering to customers either through technology and/or gives us access to our markets and maybe here too for we didn’t have access to. Dmitry, I guess, if you want to take the long view, which I appreciate, certainly, our competitive position in every business, most notably, institutional is dramatically better today than it was 20 years ago, 15 years ago, 10 years ago or five years ago. We have a larger share. We’ve outgrown our competitor in terms of absolute percent on double the size, I think, every year probably or close to it. I don’t have all the facts, because they’ve been private much of the time. But I think we have pretty good estimates, because they were public for a period of time and that includes Europe. And our Europe business improved to just it is a tougher situation. So these are kind of relative comments. I don’t feel we’re impaired in Europe, or there we’re missing any technology or critical competitive advantage to compete, it’s just relative to the other markets. Our competitive situation undoubtedly is more challenging in Europe than it is in other places. But I don’t believe it’s an obstacle.
Dmitry Silversteyn:
And you don’t see that changing, I guess, in the next, let’s call it, three to five years?
Douglas Baker:
From now, I don’t know. I mean, it’s hard to predict. I – so I think we’ll continue to get stronger over the next three to fie years, I think as we start leveraging more effectively. I mean, one of the advantages we have is size. We invest a lot more in R&D just in absolute dollars and dollars count in R&D. And we ought to continue to leverage that scale to our advantage, which I think is one of the strategies that we’ve effectively utilized over the years. And as we do this in digital is a perfect example of that developing world-class platforms and leveraging them broadly is something that we can uniquely do. We can afford to put more money into them, because we have more money. And we’ll continue to do that going forward, I do believe that will translate into advantage over the next three to five years.
Dmitry Silversteyn:
Okay. Thank you, Doug.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of P.J. Juvekar with Citigroup. Please proceed with your questions.
Scott Goldstein:
Hi, this is Scott on for P.J. Thanks for taking my question. Doug, if I go back to the institutional business, I think, you had forecasted for 2018 top line growth to return to the mid single-digit range. And it did despite weaker restaurant foot traffic in the U.S. And I think, would you mind talking about some of the drivers behind that growth this year? And do you think that level of growth sustainable through 2019?
Douglas Baker:
Yes. I mean, we forecast mid single digits for 2019. I don’t know if it means that the points flow exactly at 5 or point faster. It’s relatively the same – roughly the same type of growth rate this year. And the reason we won’t see acceleration is a little bit of that conversation on softness in Europe. And as we overcome some of the losses through new business, which we’ve secured, but you’ve got to go install it. So I’m quite confident in our institutional business as we go forward. What drove it last year is sort of old-fashioned. We sold new business. They had a lot of very successful innovation uptake throughout both their warewash platform, as well as continued progress in their laundry platforms. Those are by far the most important factors in driving this growth and they’re starting to see it more broad. So China is moving quite nicely for our institutional business. It’s going to be the most important market long-term for food service globally. So that’s a very important investment area for us and an important place to see traction long-term.
Scott Goldstein:
Okay. Thank you. That’s all I got. Thanks for the color.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Shlomo Rosenbaum with Stifel. Please proceed with your question.
Shlomo Rosenbaum:
Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. Hey, Doug, are the assets that you’re expecting to spin out in the energy space expected to grow this year in line with corporate average above or below corporate average?
Douglas Baker:
More in line. So, we would say, it’s mid single-digit top line growth. We would expect to see margin expansion as well in the upstream business as they recoup and the significant raw material inflation that they’ve seen as well. So I wouldn’t say, the business is going to work dramatically different with or without it, if you will, from percentage growth and percentage OI growth.
Shlomo Rosenbaum:
Okay. And then just – would you just from an on the ground perspective, after you spinout this business, is there – does that give you more management wherewithal to focus on other areas of the company, or is there some commentary you could talk about in terms of the kind of executive management focus that was required for that business over the last several years? I guess, what I’m getting at is beyond just kind of changes in the end markets, does this free up some management time or bandwidth to focus on the other businesses that you just didn’t have beforehand?
Douglas Baker:
Yes, I guess, I’d answer it this way. The basis for the spin remains, the model is shifting and it’s increasingly becoming less like our other businesses in terms of the disciplines and expertise you need to run it, which we talked about during the spin call. And that’s really the reason that we’re doing it. I would say, an additional benefit is exactly what you said. I would certainly, if you will, kind of the models we’re running are more alike, so you get more synergy in terms of management investment and time. You get more synergy in terms of uptake on specific developments. You probably will have in digital and/or some of the other technology as we go forward. So, yes, I think a side benefit is the company becomes arguably a little easier to run, which means more bandwidth to go drive innovation and improvement in what you’re running.
Shlomo Rosenbaum:
Okay, great. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Hamzah Mazari with Macquarie Group. Please proceed with your question.
Hamzah Mazari:
Good afternoon. Thank you. My question is just if you could remind us on synergies between various businesses in the portfolio? The reason I ask is, you touched on water being a significant portion of downstream. Maybe just touch on how many of your corporate customers subscribe to your entire suite of products, or however you want to answer that question, I appreciate it?
Douglas Baker:
Yes. I – well, it’s a hard one to answer, simply because of the breadth we have, as I mentioned 3 million customer units around the world. We don’t track by, I would say, the best way to answer, I think, the heart of the question is this, there’s not a customer that we sell that we couldn’t double or minimum triple the business with if they ended up buying all of our offerings. And that includes our most longstanding, most highly penetrated customers. And so we have significant upside in every customer. Now a lot of this is planned upside. We continue to invest in new technologies. Water continues to build out, if you will, their capabilities around cooling tower and Legionella detection and ultimately prevention practices. When they do that, they become – they open up the scope of offerings or customers that they can go sell to. And as a result, the opportunity continues to increase. We’ve always said, we want to grow every year and we want to grow our opportunity every year. So we don’t end up running into walls like our share is too large and there’s no more growth in front of us, which is a mistake too frequently made by too many companies. So we’ll make a different mistake, we’re not going to make that one. So I don’t care if it’s passed. There’s huge penetration opportunities, water huge penetration opportunity, institutional itself has significant penetration opportunities. They’re getting after water filtration in a more concentrated way and a number of other technologies and there’s huge upside for them in a number of their customers. Warewash and our KAY QSR business has got significant upside potential. So there’s probably not one set of customers or one set of technologies that doesn’t have upside from circle to customer opportunities.
Hamzah Mazari:
Great. And just a follow-up, does the spin of energy increase your appetite to do larger deals? I know you haven’t done one in a while, maybe it’s valuation or maybe something else, but just any thoughts there? Thank you.
Douglas Baker:
Yes, I think, our appetite was plenty large to begin with. I think, it’s always going to be counterbalanced with discipline. And so, yes, I think the company and the team has proven that we can successfully do whatever large deals mean deals in the billions. We would not be afraid to do that, but we aren’t going to do it if we don’t think the valuation is such that will enable us to have healthy returns for our shareholders. Ultimately, that’s why shareholders invest in us. You can do a lot of deals, make them accretive on EPS, but they’re lousy return deals and long-term, we think it’s return that drives value.
Hamzah Mazari:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from line of Scott Schneeberger with Oppenheimer & Co. Please proceed with your question.
Scott Schneeberger:
Yes, thanks. Hey, Doug, on – following Hamzah’s question on M&A. The last real big win was about two years ago was Anios. Could you give us a progress report on that one? And then this conversation earlier about how Europe maybe the soft area? Going forward on a relative basis, what’s your propensity to do M&A in that region specifically, might there be an opportunity upcoming? And then I have a follow-up. Thanks.
Douglas Baker:
Yes. So Anios has been very successful. And through today versus its plan is on or above plan on almost all of key metrics. And so we feel very good about how the team integrated, how Anios onboarded the cultural overlap. I mean, there aren’t many areas, where we don’t feel good about how healthcare is integrated that business. So I think, it’s – you would chalk it up on the success side. We typically have fairly aggressive management cases for deals. They are higher than our investment case, if you will. And so Anios is off to a good start. In terms of Europe, as – yes, I would sort of concur that. Soft economic environments typically or can create good M&A opportunities. And if you even recall when we bought Nalco, 2011 was very early, if you will, and M&A heating back up. And for some, was a little earlier than they thought maybe was wise, at least, the first eight weeks. And so – but the consequence we bought that – the print number was like 11 EBITDA, and with synergies, it was high single digits. And it was, because it was following a big economic change. So, yes, we’ll be aggressive in looking. Our relative performance tends to do quite well in tough economic times, and we’re a good cash generator. So our capabilities of doing M&A don’t change demonstrably in tough economic times and our advantage probably changes more significantly up in bad economic times.
Scott Schneeberger:
All right, thanks. I appreciate that. And then the other question was in the Other segment, very, very strong operating margin expansion there. I imagine a lot was because of the departure of Equipment Care. But that you’d all anniversary now heading into 2019. so I’m just curious what – what’s a reasonable steady state the margin to expect there? And what’s – what is achievable? Thanks.
Douglas Baker:
Yes. Well, you’re right. A big piece of that year-on-year margin growth is the fact that GCS was still partially in the base and had obviously a very low margin relative to the other businesses. So exiting that impacted it, right? It’s out. So going forward, yes, I think you’ll see steady improvement overall in that base. I mean, there will be some lumpiness simply because CTG can be a little – it’s a small business, but relatively lumpy. It can have some big quarters plus and some quarters not as large, if you will. Pest over time has been a very steady performer. It’s one of the higher-margin businesses that we have. It’s a good margin business, very commensurate with other pest businesses, if you will.
Scott Schneeberger:
Thanks very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Rosemarie Morbelli with G. Research. Please proceed with your question.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Doug, I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about Bioquell and how you are planning to integrate it with your – in your healthcare business? It sounds to me as though it is totally different from what you are offering. Can you give us a better feel for what you’re doing with it?
Douglas Baker:
Yes, happily. So Bioquell is a different business. It’s really, if you will, being integrated, let me define that word for a minute in this case into our life sciences business. So there will be some application of the Bioquell technology in healthcare or acute care specifically, which isn’t unusual for us. But predominantly, we view the Bioquell being targeted against the life sciences, i.e., pharma, cosmetic industries, et cetera. The life science approach here and, if you will, the acquisition model is fairly light touch initially from an integration standpoint, often our mantra. I mean, we stole it from somebody else, is make sure do no harm. We’ve got a great business with great technology, great competency in the team that we brought on. We want to understand how we most effectively leverage, if you will, the other parts of life sciences to advantage Bioquell and vice versa. That takes time. We have a thesis going in, but you need some experience to prove and learn how do you best do that. Long-term the Bioquell capabilities are always going to be somewhat unique, and so we’re always going to need, if you will, a unique center with people who are expert in specialist in that area. So we’re probably going to take more of an approach like we did with Anios, or we did with even KAY many years ago, which is utilize the asset, learn and understand the team, feed them with technology that can enhance them and learn from them how do you best, if you will, drive that business performance over time.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
So I thought it was – I thought that their technology allows them to totally isolate a room if there is some kind of infection that you don’t want to spread anywhere else. So how does that apply to life science and the cosmetic industry? I thought, I mean, I thought of it as acute care and hospital, not at all in life science or cosmetics?
Douglas Baker:
Yes. There’s times in pharma and/or cosmetics or other manufacturing where you need to do a, if you will, kind of concentrated shutdown and comprehensive kill. And so that’s not infrequent. It’s an important part of the tool. It could be just parts of a manufacturing facility. It doesn’t necessarily have to be the whole thing. It could be a specific clean room applications and others.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
Oh, that is very helpful, thank you. And then, lastly, if I may, when I look at your operations, you have reached 46% to 48% gross margin. I’m assuming that the Energy Upstream has lowered it in addition to the inflation and so on. But is there a chance that you can return to that particular range? And how quickly could you do that?
Douglas Baker:
Yes. Well, you’ve got a couple of factors, I mean, you’re right. Our margins post-spin will be greater than they are pre-spin. The other factor though, if you’ll recall, is the rev rec changes that we undertook, where we had, if you will, moved on the P&L geography, some of the service costs, which previously were in SG&A. It was like a 5 point – or 500 basis point change in overall gross profit, had no impact on OI, if you will. But it did have an impact on gross profit or gross margin. With that said, certainly, I would say, you can expect, I mean, it’s not hard to figure out that both our OI margin post-spin as a consequence also our ROIC post-spin will both be enhanced fairly significantly by the change.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Justin Hauke with Robert W. Baird. Please proceed with your question.
Justin Hauke:
Great. Well, that last one actually was kind of what I was going to be asking about which was kind of structural gross margin expectation that would be aspirational from here. And I guess the second part of that question would be does pricing need to be even greater than it is or is there something else that’s diluting the gross margin down, because 3% pricing is about as good as it’s been really, I mean, in decade-plus. And it seems like with raw material costs only up 4% in the outlook, all else equal, I would think that there’d be a little bit more gross margin recovery than kind of flat to up slightly that – that’s implied here. So is there anything else that’s changed that’s maybe diluting the gross margins down from where we would otherwise expect them to go to?
Douglas Baker:
No, there haven’t been fundamental changes. I would just say, as I mentioned earlier, last year we had 8% raw material increase. And we built a pricing through the year. Pricing in total for 2018 was 2%. It was 3% in the fourth quarter. And so we are moving in this year with a lot more momentum, obviously, than we moved into 2018. And raw materials, while they’re expected to increase, it is at a slower rate. But the most severe year-on-year comparison we’re going to have on raw materials is in Q1, simply because they started moving really kind of Q2 on forward, if you will. And so the base becomes somewhat easier as you go throughout the year than it starts. With that said, we said we don’t have really any hockey stick forecast for EPS or other things. We believe we’ll be able to manage through this as we go on throughout the year, but there are no other huge structural issues. The last point I’ll make is recall, we are – we’ve now had 100% of our U.S. supply chain. The bulk of the supply chain moved on to SAP. And we did that all the way through 2018 and actually put the last 15% on last week successfully. And it started a year ago like mid-February, and we now have a 100% of that supply chain. That costs money. It costs money certainly in just the investment in SAP systems, you turn it on. But probably most importantly, it creates, if you will, hijinks in your supply system as you need to move inventory around internally, as plant productivity goes down near-term, as you move them from one system to another.We said when we were going to undertake this that this would not make a quarterly call and it hasn’t. The team did a great job managing this successfully, not making this a point of distinction and it was a big, big initiative. It certainly has cost there. We will have some continuation of higher costs this year than I would call normal in our supply chain as a consequence of that. But that will bleed off as you move and exit 2019 as well and we move into 2020.
Justin Hauke:
Okay, great. And then the last one, this is just purely a number question. But of the $325 million just so we can track and calibrate better on the cost savings that are expected. What’s expected in the 2019 guidance specifically?
Douglas Baker:
Yes, $80 million incremental versus last year.
Justin Hauke:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the question-and-answer session. I’ll turn the floor back to Mr. Monahan for any final comments.
Michael Monahan:
Thank you. That wraps up our fourth quarter conference call. This conference call and the associated discussion slides will be available for replay on our website. Thanks for your time today and participation and best wishes for the rest of the day.
Operator:
Thank you. This concludes today’s teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.
Executives:
Michael J. Monahan - Ecolab, Inc. Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc. Daniel J. Schmechel - Ecolab, Inc.
Analysts:
Gary Bisbee - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Tim M. Mulrooney - William Blair & Co. LLC John Roberts - UBS Securities LLC Manav Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc. Laurence Alexander - Jefferies LLC David I. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Andrew John Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. Vincent Stephen Andrews - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC John P. McNulty - BMO Capital Markets (United States) Christopher S. Parkinson - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC Shlomo H. Rosenbaum - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc. Scott Goldstein - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Hamzah Mazari - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc. Michael Joseph Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC Rosemarie Jeanne Morbelli - Gabelli & Company
Operator:
Greetings and welcome to the Ecolab Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Release Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce Mike Monahan, Senior Vice President, External Relations. Thank you Mr. Monahan you may now begin.
Michael J. Monahan - Ecolab, Inc.:
Thank you. Hello everyone and welcome to Ecolab's third quarter conference call. With me today is Doug Baker, Ecolab's Chairman and CEO; and Dan Schmechel, our CFO. A discussion of our results along with our earnings release and the slides referencing the quarter's results and our outlook are available on Ecolab's website at ecolab.com/investor. Please take a moment to read the cautionary statements on these materials, stating that this teleconference, the discussion and the slides include estimates of future performance. These are forward-looking statements and actual results could differ materially from those projected. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are described under Item 1A, Risk Factors, of our most recent Form 10-K, in our posted materials. We also refer you to the supplemental diluted earnings per share information in the release. Starting with a brief overview of the results. Ecolab's solid growth momentum continued in the third quarter. New business gains, accelerating pricing and product innovation drove strong third quarter acquisition-adjusted fixed currency sales growth in all of our business segments. That strong top line growth along with cost efficiency and reduced tax rate yielded the third quarter's 11% adjusted earnings per share increase. Moving on to some highlights from the quarter and as discussed in our press release, acquisition adjusted fixed currency sales increased 7% with strong growth across all business segments. Regionally sales growth was led by North America and Latin America. Adjusted fixed currency operating income rose 6% continuing the acceleration shown throughout 2018. The operating income gain along with the lower tax rate yielded 11% increase in third quarter 2018 adjusted diluted earnings per share. We continue to work aggressively to drive growth winning new business through our innovative new products and sales and service expertise, as well as driving pricing productivity and cost efficiencies to grow our top and bottom lines at improved rates. We also continue to see solid underlying sales volume and pricing across all of our business segments. However after offsetting the bulk of $0.75 per share of increased delivered product cost and currency exchange headwinds since our initial 2018 forecast, we expect the fourth quarter will see further significant increases that leave insufficient time to offset them this year. We now expect 2018 adjusted diluted earnings per share to rise 11% to 13% to the $5.20 to $5.30 range as volume and price gains offset the impact of higher delivered product cost and business investments. Fourth quarter adjusted diluted earnings per share are expected to be up 8% to 15% to the $1.49 to $1.59 range. Work on the previously announced $200 million cost savings initiative, which is leveraging our recent technology and systems investments is making good progress and will benefit the fourth quarter. In summary, we expect continued strong top line momentum in our business over the balance of the year to more than offset higher costs and deliver operating income growth and along with cost efficiency actions and a lower tax rate yield 11% to 13% adjusted diluted earnings per share growth this year. Importantly despite the significant headwinds we are continuing to make the right investments in key areas of differentiation, including product innovation and digital investments to develop superior growth for the future and we expect to sustain strong momentum as we exit the year. And now here's Doug Baker with some comments.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Thanks Mike. In short, I'm happy with our business performance. I'm not happy at all that we had to lower our guidance, but the story isn't very complicated. The business results are strong. Volume growth, pricing, innovation, new business cost savings are all meeting our ambitious targets. Organic sales were plus 7% for the third quarter. We expect equal or better in Industrial, Institutional and other in Q4 compared to their Q3 results. The exception will be Energy, which is mostly a comparison issue. It's going against a 12% Q4 last year which we had said at the time was onetime driven. Pricing also accelerated again in Q3 across the board and will again in Q4, so we will leave the year at a 3% clip. Everything else operationally is in line also, including cost savings. The unexpected was principally raw material costs, which continued to defy gravity indices and certainly our projections. In total raws were $0.11 more than we had last forecast and FX piled on for another $0.04. Nearly three-quarters of this hits Q4. So time is the enemy here. Short-term moves like slashing investments or halting our U.S. SAP rollout would be foolish; we are not doing it. Instead, we continue to focus on pricing, cost savings and volume growth, but these don't spike to match raws, so it takes more than a quarter which brings me to my next point. We are winning. We're winning in the marketplace. We're winning against inflation. Clearly we're outpacing market growth across Industrial, Institutional, Energy and other segments. And even with the dramatic raw materials and transportation inflation, our pricing, volume, cost-saving efforts are leading to improving results with OI accelerating over the last three quarters and expected to continue in Q4 even at our new forecast. Also, adjusted EPS for the year remains double-digit. Perhaps most importantly, we enter 2019 with significant volume, pricing and cost savings momentum. All of this puts us in a good position to continue building our earnings momentum in 2019 and throughout the year, even in an environment where we have continued high raw material inflation, which is how we are planning for it. So with that I'm going to turn it back to Mike.
Michael J. Monahan - Ecolab, Inc.:
Thank you, Doug. That concludes our formal remarks. Operator, would you please begin the question-and-answer period?
Operator:
Yes, thank you. Thank you. Our first question is from Gary Bisbee with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Gary Bisbee - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Hey guys. Good afternoon. So, I guess the first question, if we assume that raws and FX remain relatively around where they are right now and project that forward, would you anticipate adjusted operating margins increasing in 2019 before benefits from the $200 million cost reduction program? I guess just trying to think through operating leverage outside of another meaningful step up in raws.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yes, I guess, Gary, I mean not to get detailed meaning, certainly if raws stopped increasing and stayed at the elevated Q4 levels, you would start seeing gross profit improvement very early in the year, year-on-year. Our forecast is more conservative than that at this point in time, which is not consistent with the indices or the published indices. We're looking and making sure that we perform in an even more difficult environment. And there, you might delay it until Q2, Q3 where you'll start seeing margin, even without the $200 million, because most of that's going to be SG&A, not in cost of goods. So, that probably is the best way to answer the question. Obviously, we're not going to go forecast the year right now. Environment's fairly dynamic, but we're working hard to take hard looks at what the sensitivities are around raw materials, et cetera, and put ourselves in a position to deliver no matter what.
Gary Bisbee - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Great. And then the follow-up, obviously, pricing accelerating has helped revenue. But the last year, you've had much better volume and mix growth than you'd had in the prior several years, really. I guess, how sustainable do you think that is? I know you've seen it pretty broad-based, but is there anything in particular you'd call out for driving that improvement in the volume side of revenue growth? Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, it's always a combination of a couple of things. Certainly, I think our own efforts have a lot to do with it, but we're also in a fairly good economy. And to not note that I think would be misleading. So, our new business productivity, our innovation, I would say, our capabilities around leveraging the combination of Water with F&B and increasingly with Institutional has only enhanced. And we're having great success there as well. I think those things are going to be quite resilient in all economies because what we're ultimately demonstrating is that you can get best-in-class results and save money because of our capabilities around reducing water and the corresponding energy related to it. So it ends up to be a very economic story too, which will still resonate if the economy slows. So, yeah, I would expect that the vast majority we will have strong results moving forward, barring any – I don't expect an 2008, 2009. I reserve the right to change everything if that's what we see. I think our expectation next year is the economy will be fairly good, albeit a little bit slower than this year.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Tim Mulrooney with William Blair. Please proceed with your questions.
Tim M. Mulrooney - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Yeah. Good afternoon. Doug, can you just give us an update on your Institutional business? How does the competitive environment look? And what are your thoughts on pricing and volume as you work your way through the fourth quarter here?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, our forecast, as I mentioned earlier for all of the businesses, except Energy, is that they will be equal or maybe even a little stronger in Q4 than they were in Q3. That includes Institutional. The Institutional business we had forecast at the beginning of the year would be accelerating to about 5% and that would be its exit growth rate for the year. And we're there and we expect to stay there in Q4. The competitive environment for Institutional, we're going through another wave where we have a very aggressive price competitor, Diversey, and they've been quite aggressive in several accounts. Some, we have frankly allowed the move or stopped competing, because the price got to such a point that it doesn't make any sense to do the business. We don't like to buy work, if you will. And so, we've gone through this a number of times before. In some cases, the business finds its way back to us within a not terribly long period of time. I don't know if that's going to happen here or not. But with all that said, if you look at our net wins and losses against Diversey for the year, in total, as a company, we remain considerably up. So it's not like we're not continuing to win there, but they've had a couple of big wins because they're doing at a prices that don't make a lot of sense to us and we don't believe they have any cost advantage. With all that said, our Institutional business is improving and has improved. Certainly we'll have to walk through this, but we'll fight it the old-fashioned way, more new business innovation. I would say, as we've been working through Institutional, we also believe we have real cost savings opportunities, nothing to do with people, but a lot to do with product line and some other opportunities that we're going to go capitalize and take advantage. So we would expect Institutional to be a good performer again next year.
Tim M. Mulrooney - William Blair & Co. LLC:
All right. Thanks for all that color. As my follow-up, I will pivot to your Water business, which had great performance in the third quarter. For Water, was there an uptick in Light Industrial, or is the acceleration in growth primarily being driven by heavy Industrial and Mining?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yes, I mean, all of them are performing well. And we had improvement in heavy business which we've been talking about, because heavy team really starting a year ago was really strong and accelerating new business. It always takes a little while for this to show up in the results, but you're seeing it now. Mining, which is not a big business for us, has also turned around. And the light business continues to perform well also. And as I mentioned before, I think there's – we've talked about this. I think the Water business underneath the covers has been doing quite well for a while. We're just out of a lot of the kind of exiting business and the other stuff that we were doing. We weren't trying to be optically perfect, but we're doing things that we thought would enhance the business and the Water team has been executing very, very well.
Tim M. Mulrooney - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of John Roberts with UBS. Please proceed with your questions.
John Roberts - UBS Securities LLC:
Thank you. Healthcare was the second lowest growth segment after Textile Care. I thought some of the new penalties around hospitals having infection rates and public disclosures of infections were going to help that business accelerate. Maybe you can take us through kind of where you are with that.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yes, well, John, as we've talked the last couple of calls frankly, Healthcare had really a rough start this year. And while you're right in the analysis, second lowest growth, I would also say it's considerably better than it was in the first two quarters, which is what we had said we expected to happen i.e. acceleration in the second half. So we're seeing the beginnings of that. To the point of your question around, I'd say incentives in the healthcare industry, there still not as straightforward as I think all of us would either design if we were designing it, it's simpler I suppose if you don't have any of the details to deal with. But right now the economics still don't line up as straightforwardly as we would like. What we've adjusted and moved to is also not only talking HAIC reduction, where we're doing quite a good job, but also being much more transparent about how these economics show up even in the world where you are still reimbursing for extra hospital fees and everything else, which is still what's happening. And I think the team is getting clear about how they talk to our prospective customers in light of a game where it's not quite as clear as we would like it to be. Additionally there's still a lot of, a lot of room to grow in Healthcare. And we are using our Anios acquisition in France to expand more aggressively around the world in many cases using the Anios brand for several reasons, but it's been quite successful. We'll continue to do that. We're also putting stakes in the ground for Ecolab, if you will, branded business in key markets as well. So I remain bullish on the Healthcare business. It grows in kind of lumpily, but they're getting some underlying organic traction which we expect to continue.
John Roberts - UBS Securities LLC:
And then secondly, I thought actually at some point you might discontinue the other segment and move Pest Elimination into Institutional. Instead now you've added this Colloidal Technologies business unit, maybe you can tell us where you're going with that?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
With Colloidal?
John Roberts - UBS Securities LLC:
Yeah, you've got – you're bulking – you've got now two businesses in other.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. Well, these are – so some of this is just rule-driven from an accounting standpoint. And when businesses are different than the other businesses, you need to put them in another segment. It's SEC other. And so what happens is past given the nature, there's really not a product component like there is on our other businesses, it finds its way into other. Colloidal is a different business for us as well. It has virtually zero SG&A. I think it's got a total of like 25 people on the whole business. And as a consequence, it's viewed as a other business as well and that's why those two are in that segment, it's just simple as that.
John Roberts - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Manav Patnaik with Barclays. Please proceed with your questions.
Manav Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Yeah. Thank you. Good afternoon. I just wanted to touch back on the pricing versus cost equation. So I think you said you're assuming that the raws gets worse I suppose or keep increasing next year. You talked about sort of being at the 3% clip on pricing. I guess compared to historic periods, how high can you push pricing? Like is there a point at which you're going to have to find other ways to help offset those raw increases?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yes, I mean, I would say there certainly is of course a ceiling. I mean we have competition out there. And we don't expect that we can go get – we can probably get 10% pricing for a year or two, but we would be on everybody's blacklist and ultimately they would choose to leave us. So we've always said that we take a longer term view on executing pricing. Our customers don't like big lumpy price increases. We don't either, but we can't – we are not immune from them, we can help them manage through it. If you look at history, if you go back, so raws this year were up in the 9% range. If you go back obviously to the severe 2008, 2009 period, they were up 11% in 2008. We got 3% pricing as a combined unit in both 2008 and in 2009. Right now we're going to be as I said exiting the year. So that was a full year pricing story. This year it's going to be just around 2% or a little north of 2% with a 3% exit rate. So we think there's still upside in pricing from what we delivered in 2018. And so, we are going to continue to push. We have to, given this environment. So we don't think we're at the end. We are already seeing exit rates. We're at 4% in the Industrial businesses, around 2% to 3% in Institutional. Energy is around the 3% rate and that's got to move up as we go throughout the year. So we're continuing to push, have upside from here, but it's not infinite.
Manav Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Got it. And just as a follow up, I mean, in terms of other costs, like, particularly labor, wage, so forth, like are you seeing any noticeable, I guess, trends there that may be add more pressure on top of the raws?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, I would say we continue to see wage inflation, but it's not inconsistent with what we've experienced in the past. Traditionally, the way we view this is we use a lot of our, what I'd call, normal productivity work to offset wage costs and healthcare costs and the like. And we've continued to do that. And so, we use pricing to really go after spiky costs like raw materials, transportation, et cetera, and make sure that those can serve to offset there. The incremental $200 million that we announced last call is really sort of on top of our normal efforts. It's not in place of our normal efforts.
Manav Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Got it. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
Next question is from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies. Please proceed with your questions.
Laurence Alexander - Jefferies LLC:
Hello. Could you give a little bit more color on what you're seeing regionally, particularly in Europe? And then secondly, sort of, to the extent that you're pushing the price in the Institutional markets, where you're seeing any areas of actual volume pressure or pushback, if at all, as opposed to just being theoretically you can't do it for a couple of years, but are you seeing any pushback currently?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, I mean, the simple answer is there's always pushback whenever you seek price in virtually every situation. And so, it always begets the discussion. And we need to demonstrate why it's important to price and why we are still a valued supplier delivering economic benefit even with the new price. So that's always an ongoing discussion. It takes real time from our sales team to go do this and execute, and also you get better with practice. And we're in an environment where there's a number of people who are being impacted by price. So we're not the only guys in the waiting room, if you will. In terms of what we we're seeing regionally, I would say, our Europe business continues to perform decently, a little over 3% sales growth is what we're seeing there. We expect that to be more or less the trend going forward. So, certainly slower than balance of the world, but better than, if you will, sort of our darker days in Europe. China, we continue to see strong results, basically double digits, almost across the board. Latin America is relatively strong coming off, I would say, a little easier base, but having good results in Latin America. The balance of Asia is doing pretty well as well. So, we don't see a lot of softness in the business at this point in time. We're not usually a harbinger of this, so we don't take a lot of solace. We're watching and looking, but I would also say just underlying trends don't indicate a big downturn in the economy, certainly not one that would match the volatility in the markets.
Laurence Alexander - Jefferies LLC:
Got it. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your questions.
David I. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Thank you. Doug, just on raw materials, which ones inflated the most to drive the guidance reduction here?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Oh, so in the latest period?
David I. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Yes.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, I mean for the year, we've got propylene, ethylene and caustic are our stars if you will. And recently, it's caustic continually and basically plastic for pails, et cetera, HDPE.
David I. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Got it. And just again on Laurence's previous question, are there any signs of either destocking or slowing in any of your key end markets, more on the Industrial side I'm thinking about here?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
No, we've not seen any material change in behavior in our Industrial segments.
David I. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Andrew Wittmann with Robert W. Baird. Please proceed with your questions.
Andrew John Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
Great. Thanks for taking my question. Doug, last quarter you talked about the $200 million cost savings plan. And at the time, you kind of suggested that you had a sense of it, but it wasn't fully nailed down and it sounds like it's probably still evolving a little bit. But I was just hoping you could just give us an update on your thoughts about how well developed the plan is here today maybe versus last quarter and where it could be by the end of the year? And then just maybe talk about the phasing; previously you suggested that it'd be kind of linear over that three year path. But has that developed to deliver any more benefits sooner or are any benefits needed sooner from the SG&A line, given that the raws are being an incremental headwind here?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. Well, we have done a lot of work since then. We aren't final, if you will, because we're also looking at ways to tweak the organization to reduce some layers, increase speed of decision making which is really the fundamental goal. It will probably also have the benefit of reducing costs and doing other things as well. So we're still doing some of that work. In the end, sitting here today, we're quite confident in our ability to deliver. We talked about a third, a third, a third over the three years. The first year was not going to be a challenge. If you're going to take a number, you take the over and not the under, but we're still finalizing that. When we announced and give a range for our 2019, we'll be very explicit on what we expect from the $200 million at that time.
Andrew John Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
Great. Thank you. That's all I had for today.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.
Vincent Stephen Andrews - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Hi. Thank you everyone. Just a question on cash flow, it looks like you made up a little progress versus where things were at the second quarter. But how do you think you'll straighten the year out? Is the raw material pressure just going to keep pushing working capital higher going into the year-end or something else going to happen?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, Dan gets cash flow.
Daniel J. Schmechel - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yes. Thank you. Sure. So this is Dan. Yeah, thank you. Q3, I think was a much improved quarter from trends. So we saw in the quarter something like a little north of 100% conversion, bringing our full year benefit up to – close to 90%. We target about 95%. And you're correct, that from a working capital perspective, higher costs tends to inflate inventory. I'll point out also that higher pricing tends to benefit us from a working capital perspective on accounts receivable. And so, I feel good about the quarter. It is an improvement from trend. I think that we feel fine about the fourth quarter and expect to deliver a full year cash flow more or less in line with our expectation as it compares to the net income. And I'm thinking in the maybe $1.3 billion, $1.4 billion range, towards the higher end, I would expect, okay. But no real surprises and encouraged by Q3.
Vincent Stephen Andrews - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Thanks. And just us a follow-up, I had a question on Energy. And I apologize if you've answered this already. But the supplement talks about in the 4Q comparison against a strong period last year due to some production business sales. Can you just remind us what that was?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. Last year when we announced the fourth quarter Energy sales in Q4 were 12% last year, it was after like negative 2% and a 4% and a 5% in the prior three quarters. And we have said that wasn't the run rate, it included fairly significant like roughly maybe just a little under half of one-time sales of equipment and other things. I don't have the exact verbiage. A lot of those was even in the Middle East. But it wasn't a run rate and we're annualizing against that. If you take that out and look it would be like high single-digits in Q4, which is not inconsistent with what you saw in Q3.
Vincent Stephen Andrews - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. Great. Thanks so much.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your questions.
John P. McNulty - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Yeah. Thanks for taking my question. On the $0.75 of raw material headwinds that you expect to see this year, how much of it do you expect to recoup back before the – or by the end of the year? And then how much of it is something that we'll see you catch-up on in 2019?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. The $0.75 includes FX as well. So that was really raw materials and FX versus our original plan. If you look at year-on-year impacts, it's going to be – I'll get you the exact numbers in a minute. So we're going to basically recoup if you will. So DPC versus plan and FX versus plan are around the $0.75 and pricing is just going to be under $0.30 or so over plan. So we've upped pricing this year versus what we expected to deliver in response to higher than forecast raw materials and ultimately FX. But we weren't able to recoup all of it because it moved very late on the year on us. Ultimately, we think we will recoup all of it. So we are already if you will our pricing dollar for dollar is over the incremental raw material bill, including in the fourth quarter. But now we've got to recoup margin, which we always say is typically year two work.
John P. McNulty - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Got it. No, that's helpful. And then thinking about the raw materials, it looks like some of the raws that you have exposure to whether it's caustic or propylene have actually started to come off a bit, I guess, in the last month or so. How quickly do you see that? Like how long do we have to wait before – let's assume these prices are for real in terms of how they've dipped a bit, how long before you actually start to see the benefit of that?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, it's different in the U.S. than outside the U.S. because the accounting rules are different. So in the U.S. it comes through fairly quickly. And outside the U.S., you've got inventory...
Daniel J. Schmechel - Ecolab, Inc.:
80 days.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, maybe 70, 80 – couple of months.
John P. McNulty - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Got it. Prefect. Thanks very much.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Christopher Parkinson with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your questions.
Christopher S. Parkinson - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Great, thanks you. Just on Energy margins, the recovery is moving in the right direction, but it does appear a little bit slower than many investors were expecting. As you've already taken out the net costs following the volatility over the last few years, how should we think about the development of U.S. onshore to offset some of the potential shortfalls across the globe? And even thinking about the production rebalancing in the Middle East given the potential void of Iranian sanctions, just what are the best ways to think about your company specific outlook, given where the Energy markets are likely heading into 2019? Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yes, well I mean look you've touched on a few right. So Iran is going to turned off, Permian will get turned back on ultimately. They're probably the two big shifts. And you have got the slow leak in some other markets because they haven't the capital or the ability to maintain production values. I think by and large it bodes well for us. We don't have significant Iranian share given that we had to walk out. And Permian is an area that we've done well in. So as we see this shift, it will bode well for us.
Christopher S. Parkinson - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Got it. And just you did allude to this a little with your comments on Diversey. But given that the industry M&A changes over the last few years and the changes in competitive landscape pretty much across a bunch of your major segments, can you just comment on if you believe that these changes have had in any shape or form or fashion an effect on the various areas of industry pricing discipline and/or your ability to act in a timely fashion over the last year or so? Just any color on how that may have factored into the pricing? And if it wasn't a big deal obviously all good.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yes. I'd even put the Diversey activity is not inconsistent with history. So we've always gone and they've always been quite price aggressive in our minds not always in the most intelligent fashion as we look at P&Ls of customers. But it's always easier because you have more information than the person competing for the business, because you're doing it. You know what the costs are, you know what the consumption is and the others are guessing. So that's not even new. I mean we've been dealing with this on and off for 30 years. And I would imagine, we'll continue to do so. Or I mean the only really – there's only really upside in terms of pricing behavior from most of our competition. I'd say Baker Hughes has come under kind of the GE Energy umbrella, appears to be I would say more priced, seems like they're pricing more intelligently based on costs and other things. I don't know if that's going to last or not, can't predict. And I'd also say Suez, we haven't seen dramatic change from Suez.
Christopher S. Parkinson - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Great. Thank you very much.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Shlomo Rosenbaum with Stifel. Please proceed with your questions.
Shlomo H. Rosenbaum - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Hi, thank you very much for taking my questions. Hey Dan, maybe you could help with this. If you leave current FX rates constant from where they are today, what would be the FX headwind to 2019 numbers? So not asking for guidance or anything, but just what does it represent as a headwind to next year?
Daniel J. Schmechel - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yes. So if you just read next year's FX exposure at current spot rates, we would see a headwind of about $0.10, okay, so plus or minus 2% of EPS.
Shlomo H. Rosenbaum - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay great. And then what would be the growth rate in the quarter if you normalized for that Hurricane that was kind of an easy comp in the third quarter? Would you still be at 7% or would that have come down to 6% or something?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Hurricane was probably 60 basis points. So, you'd probably end up above 6%, but probably not rounding to 7%.
Shlomo H. Rosenbaum - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay, great. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of P.J. Juvekar with Citigroup. Please proceed with your questions.
Scott Goldstein - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Hi, this is Scott Goldstein on for P.J. So, it looks like in Textiles Care, it's growing meaningfully slower than your other Industrials businesses. So, what are your longer term expectations for that business and do you still view it as core part of the portfolio?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
We expect Textile to accelerate from here. That's a business forecast sound reasoning behind it. Some was just going through some customer transitions and others, but we would expect that business to accelerate. But it's going to be a mid-single-digits growth business. It's not going to be a business in the 6% to 8% organically, but it's a good business. Yes, it's part of our portfolio and we'll continue to invest in it to grow and to win.
Scott Goldstein - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Okay. Thanks. And just checking, have the tariffs had any impact on how you're thinking about your supply chain or distribution?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, we are somewhat fortunate in the tariff world, if anybody is and that we've historically had a supply chain strategy which is make where we sell. It was originally born because of mitigating FX. We didn't want foreign exchange to become a strategic issue, right, it's a translation issue. But if you only made in the U.S. and the dollar got strong, you're suddenly not as competitive from a price standpoint, hence our strategy to go make in markets or in the currencies we sell in. As a consequence, we don't have big exposure. In China, for instance, like 92% of what we sell in China is made in China. So, we don't have significant imports into the market that are going to be affected by tariffs. The bigger impact for us will be British exit and that one it depends. So, we're assuming that it's a hard exit and that we have to fall with the WTO rates and that's the way that we are managing and looking at it. Anything better than that we'll mitigate, but I think even there, we don't plan to have this as a big talking point in our quarterly calls.
Scott Goldstein - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Okay. Got it. Thank you for the detail.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Hamzah Mazari with Macquarie Group. Please proceed with your questions.
Hamzah Mazari - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Good afternoon. Thank you. The first question is just on the paper business; it had a nice ramp. If you could just touch on the sustainability of that growth, is it largely just a cyclical rebound or anything you're doing differently in that marketplace?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, big piece of the ramp was price. That's a business that has a lot of price-plus contracts. You're starting to see price tick up; where we don't have those contracts, our team has been aggressive recouping raw material increases that have occurred over the last couple of years. The other half of the sales is volume, so that's a tick up as well. And that's really been driven by new business and new innovation that's been introduced there that's helped drive successful new volume at both existing and new customers. So, the team's on the price equation; they know they've got to go back and rebuild margin, so that we can continue to invest in new technologies. It benefits everybody in the industry and that's exactly what they're doing right now.
Hamzah Mazari - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Great. And just a follow-up question on international, are there any sort of structural reasons why the mix of international shouldn't look like the U.S. longer term whether it's more Institutional, more QSR, just any big picture thoughts on that? Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, I don't know if it will on average. You have – the U.S. has got an outsized food service market given its population and compared to, if you will, other markets like dollars spent per head. With that said, I think Institutional is undersized and has low share versus our potential in our non-U.S. markets. So, it has certainly significant upside from where it is today, but it likely won't be the same percentage of the total enterprise as it is in the U.S. on the balance of the world.
Hamzah Mazari - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Mike Harrison with Seaport Global. Please proceed with your questions.
Michael Joseph Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC:
Hi. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about the margin performance in the Energy business. There was just a tiny bit of sequential decline, despite some improvement in the top-line. Can you talk a little bit about some of the puts and takes in the margin performance in Energy and also provide some thoughts on the cadence of margin over the next few quarters?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yes, I mean the blip would have almost certainly been just propylene. They have fairly sizable exposure to propylene. And so, as it moves up and down, you'll see the 10 basis point, 20 basis point kind of blips in their margin. I mean the real Energy story needs to be continued pricing, recouping raw material input cost inflation. It didn't occur just this year, but also in prior years. The team is on it; they're doing it. They're doing a much better job driving enhanced mix, et cetera, and driving new innovation and customers. All these things will help drive and rebuild margins, which we still believe will be in the middle teens.
Michael Joseph Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC:
All right. And then was wondering going back to the paper conversation, can you comment on how the Georgia-Pacific acquisition has been progressing relative to your expectations? And are you seeing benefits in the paper segments related to some industry consolidation that's happened over the past year as well as the past several years?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yes. Well, the acquisition you referenced is off to a great start. So, it's above on virtually every one of our targets. In case the team's listening, this is the year one and we often do this year one, and we plan to own it for 40 years. So we got to continue the performance. But it's been off to a good start. And in terms of consolidation, I would say generally, the period of consolidation can be unsettling, but typically consolidation in industries benefits us. We prefer consolidating customer sets and fragmented competitive sets. It's almost one of the preconditions for us to thrive. And so long-term we would view that as a positive.
Michael Joseph Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC:
Thanks very much.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Rosemarie Morbelli of Gabelli. Please proceed with your question.
Rosemarie Jeanne Morbelli - Gabelli & Company:
Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. Well, most of my questions have been answered. Doug could you talk about the environment for M&A what are you looking at? I mean, the valuation seems to have come down for a lot of potential properties.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. I would expect Rosemarie that we will have a couple more deals done before year-end. And I'd say the environment generally I would agree these seems to be getting a little better. We're going to remain committed to doing smart deals. And this means it's going to be a bit seasonal. Not like spring, winter, fall. There may be – there are some years where we're going to be more successful than others, because we really don't want to force it by paying too much. And we think we're in a position where we can do this. So that's the way we view it. With that said, yeah, I would expect that we'll have a few near term. And if we look at sort of what we're looking at, who we're talking to, I would say, the list is getting better and stronger.
Rosemarie Jeanne Morbelli - Gabelli & Company:
Any particular size that you are targeting in specifically?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
I mean, look I think the only size limit or parameter we have is doing too little of a deal can be a real waste of time and money because it almost takes the same amount of effort, if you will, to buy a $5 million company as a $50 million or a $500 million. So we try not to do really tiny deals. Other than that we don't really have a size, preference-to-preference really is around, does it makes sense strategically, can we get a return on it, are we their rightful owner. I mean those are kind of the big things that we look at. In financial terms, it's a return. We're investing shareholder money. We've got to be able to look at shareholders and say, you're going to be really happy with this return. It's the best way we can invest the money.
Rosemarie Jeanne Morbelli - Gabelli & Company:
All right. Thanks. That is helpful. And if you could update us on your technology and digital investments?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. We've not blinked there at all. In fact, we're investing more this year than last year. I think we're starting to get at a point where it's not going to call for dramatically more money in the near term. We've got to really do a great job with the money we're already investing. But we've had – look we're out in the marketplace with some very large customers. We're learning, developing. As I've said repeatedly, I think the digital world is great for us. We are advantaged. We have 3 million customer sites, all of which, or virtually all of which are collecting data today, a fraction of which are connected to the cloud, but technically that's not that complicated that cost to do it. It's dropping. We have unique knowhow, unique streams of information and are the only people able to act upon what we've learned through the digital world. So once we find out there are problems in units, we can actually get in there and help our customers fix them. I think that whole combination is a great advantage for us long-term and we're working very hard to make sure we don't squander this advantage.
Rosemarie Jeanne Morbelli - Gabelli & Company:
Great. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Mr. Monahan, there are no further questions. At this time, I would like to turn the floor back over to you for closing comments.
Michael J. Monahan - Ecolab, Inc.:
Thank you. That wraps up our third quarter conference call. This conference call and the associated discussion slides will be available for replay on our website. Thank you for your time and participation. Our best wishes for the rest of the day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may now disconnect your lines and have a wonderful day.
Executives:
Michael J. Monahan - Ecolab, Inc. Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc. Daniel J. Schmechel - Ecolab, Inc.
Analysts:
John Roberts - UBS Securities LLC David E. Ridley-Lane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch John P. McNulty - BMO Capital Markets (United States) Tim M. Mulrooney - William Blair & Co. LLC Hamzah Mazari - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc. Manav Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc. Laurence Alexander - Jefferies LLC David I. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Vincent Stephen Andrews - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Christopher S. Parkinson - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC Andrew John Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC Shlomo H. Rosenbaum - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc. Jeffrey J. Zekauskas - JPMorgan Securities LLC Scott Goldstein - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Scott Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker) Michael Joseph Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC Rosemarie Jeanne Morbelli - Gabelli & Company
Operator:
Greetings and welcome to the Ecolab second quarter 2018 earnings release conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mike Monahan. Thank you, Mr. Monahan, you may now begin.
Michael J. Monahan - Ecolab, Inc.:
Thank you. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Ecolab's second quarter conference call. With me today is Doug Baker, Ecolab's Chairman and CEO; and Dan Schmechel, our CFO. A discussion of our results along with our earnings release and the slides referencing the quarter's results and our outlook are available on Ecolab's website at ecolab.com/investor. Please take a moment to read the cautionary statements on these materials stating that this teleconference, the discussion, and the slides include estimates of future performance. These are forward-looking statements, and actual results could differ materially from those projected. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are described under Item 1A, Risk Factors, of our most recent Form 10-K and in our other posted materials. We also refer you to the supplemental diluted earnings per share information in the release. Starting with a brief review of the results, Ecolab's growth momentum continued in the second quarter. New business gains, pricing, and product innovation drove strong second quarter acquisition-adjusted fixed currency sales increases in all of our business segments. That solid top line growth, along with cost efficiency and a reduced tax rate, yielded the second quarter's 13% adjusted earnings per share increase. Moving to some highlights from the quarter and as discussed in our press release, second quarter 2018 adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 13% to $1.27. Consolidated sales rose 7%. Acquisition-adjusted fixed currency sales increased 5%, with good growth in all business segments. Regionally, sales growth was led by North America. Adjusted fixed currency operating margins decreased 20 basis points as price, volume, and efficiency increases were more than offset by rising delivered product costs in the quarter. Adjusted fixed currency operating income rose 3%. The operating income gain along with lower tax rate yielded the 13% increase in second quarter 2018 adjusted diluted earnings per share. We continue to work aggressively to drive growth, winning new business through our innovative new products and sales and service expertise, as well as driving pricing and cost efficiencies to grow our top and bottom lines at improved rates. We also see continued good underlying sales volume and improving pricing across our business segments, and look for that to more than offset continued delivered product cost headwinds and yield stronger income growth. We continue to expect 2018 adjusted diluted earnings per share to rise 13% to 18% to the $5.30 to $5.50 range, with second half earnings per share growth outpacing the first half, as volume and price gains increasingly offset the expected impact of higher delivered product costs and business investments. We expect strong third quarter fixed currency acquisition-adjusted sales growth, with adjusted diluted earnings per share in the $1.49 to $1.57 range, up 8% to 14%. The efficiency initiative we have begun will leverage our recent technology and systems investments. We expect these actions to make Ecolab better, faster, and more profitable as we simplify our structures, improve future sales growth, and increase operating efficiency while delivering better customer outcomes. In summary, we expect further strong momentum in our business over the balance of the year to deliver our forecasted 13% to 18% adjusted diluted earnings per share growth this year, while at the same time we are making the right investments and taking the right actions to develop superior growth for the future. And now here's Doug Baker with some comments.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Thank you, Mike. Hello. A couple comments on our second quarter, we feel good about our business. Our position is strong both near term and long term. If you look on a macro basis, our clean water, safe food, abundant energy, and healthy environment positioning is as relevant as ever. While the news of the day in various positions seem to change frequently, the fundamental trends that we are betting on are constant. Population is growing globally. It's aging in developed markets. The middle class is growing, particularly in Asia. A bigger middle class increases disproportionately demand for food as their diets shift and for energy as their expectations shift. Food and energy are the two largest users of water, and water is already scarce. The aging population also drives travel and consumer healthcare spend. So in total, we see solid demand for our food safety, energy, water, and healthcare businesses now and over the mid and long term, and this is reflected in our results. We are executing well. We are seeing accelerating growth in all of our large businesses. Industrial has moved from 3% in 2017 to 5% organic first half and expect 6% organic in the second half. Institutional moved from 3% organic in 2017 to 4% organic in the first half, and we expect 5%-plus in the second half; Energy from 5% organic in 2017 to upper single digits this year; and other, led by pest, from 7% organic in 2017 to 8% in 2018. In total, we expect to move from 4% organic sales growth in 2017 to 6% organic in 2018. This is certainly above market growth and reflects share gains, as evidenced by our net new corporate accounts business, which was up 22% in the first half of this year versus last year's first half. Now not only are we building top line momentum, we're building margin momentum too in spite of inflation. So it's no news that we're in an inflationary environment, with raw materials and transportation increasing by $0.45 for the year. This is plus $0.17 since our last call on May 1. The dollar has also strengthened since that last call by $0.08, giving us a $0.25 challenge since May Day. The good news is we have overcome this primarily through increased pricing and volume. In fact, margin recovery is already evident, with Q2 gross margins in line with a year ago, where Q1 was significantly off a year ago. So given our strong and consistent volume and pricing trends coupled with good management of SG&A, we feel confident we will deliver within our $5.30 to $5.50 range. Let me take, though, a moment to address our second half, which looks a little lumpier than it actually is, with implied adjusted EPS growth of plus 20% in Q4 compared to low double digits in Q3. Mike already alluded to this. The story is one of continued strong volume plus accelerating pricing and cost savings catching up and overtaking the forecasted second half step up in raw material cost. This takes some time. Our volume forecast over the second half reflects current trends while the cost savings forecasted in the second half are in hand, and we've already secured 75% of the incremental pricing needed as well. All of this leads to our confidence in the forecast. Finally, we also formally announced the efficiency program we referred to in our last call. This will generate $200 million in run rate savings by 2021. The program leverages our $600 million investment that we've made the last five years in technology. We are driving efficiency in G&A by leveraging our Workday and SAP platforms, by consolidating systems, by consolidating back offices, and by consolidating third-party vendors. New field technology, which is tied to new customer digital programs like SMARTPOWER, 3D CIP and 3D TRASAR, new QSR and FRS digital safety platforms, and the like allow us to continue to improve field efficiency and customer service and capability. So all told, this will be additional fuel to drive continued mid-teens EPS growth beyond 2018. So with that, I'll turn it back to Mike, who will open it up for questions.
Michael J. Monahan - Ecolab, Inc.:
Thanks, Doug. That concludes our formal remarks. Operator, please begin the question-and-answer period.
Operator:
Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of John Roberts with UBS. Please proceed with your questions.
John Roberts - UBS Securities LLC:
Thank you. I think you started to see a pickup in the full-service restaurant part of your Institutional business. Are you seeing investments by the customers that might confirm that and reinforce it will be longer-term rather than a temporary uptick here?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
I would say the full-service restaurant segment has got two things. Sales have been consistently growing in almost all segments. What's been weak in the past and continues to be modestly weak is foot traffic. With that said, I would say we don't consider that segment impaired or horribly unhealthy, meaning it's strong enough for us to continue to drive share growth and drive sales growth. I think what we've seen is that we've started to gain more traction. We talked how we had to delay last year a large platform introduction, SMARTPOWER. We launched it late, late last year, and it's doing what we expected to and starting to lead to more share gains, which is why you're seeing really a recovery in Institutional first half of this year versus 2017.
John Roberts - UBS Securities LLC:
And then could you characterize the M&A pipeline that's there? I think we've had some big transactions that you weren't involved with. I don't know if there are a number of things that you are thinking about right now.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
We never go into specifics for obvious reasons. I would say we still have a healthy list of targets that we're looking at. We're going to remain careful, I would say, or smart with shareholder money. I think we've proven to be in the past. We'll continue to be going forward. With that said, we've closed a number of deals this year and would expect to close several more before year end.
John Roberts - UBS Securities LLC:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of David Ridley-Lane with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please proceed with your question.
David E. Ridley-Lane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Sure. So I just wanted to check. Based on your revised expectations around raw material prices, would pricing be catching up to raw material costs on a dollar basis in the fourth quarter? Did I hear that right? And what would you expect in terms of pricing into 2019?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. Well, we're going to continue to accelerate pricing through this year. We've seen solid acceleration in each of the last six quarters in total and really across the board by business, and we're going to continue to need to accelerate pricing through the balance of the year. That's going to leave us with a lot of carry-in into 2019, just simply by the math. You don't capture it all specifically on the last day of the year, and these agreements extend typically several years out. So we would expect to see pricing continue to grow. I think you would see pricing up in 2019 under almost any scenario as we look. You'll see gross margins, they're already flat year on year. They're going to remain around that range for the balance of the year. You'll see OI margins expand, particularly in the fourth quarter.
David E. Ridley-Lane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
And just a very quick follow-on, how disruptive would a new deal Brexit be to Ecolab's UK business, including perhaps some follow-on effects to your clients there?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well I think the direct effects to us would not be monstrous. We've already – that's how we calc'd it. It basically resorts to WTO duties. We've looked at that. We've already taken some steps to mitigate that potential; i.e., moves that would be good under almost any scenario. With that said, I don't think it's going to be a big conversation piece for us if that's where it ends up. But the economic impact is probably the impact that everybody will feel.
David E. Ridley-Lane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
John P. McNulty - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Yeah. Thanks for taking my question. With regard to the $200 million cost-cutting opportunity, I guess can you help us to think about the major buckets that you see those cost savings and efficiencies coming through and how we should be thinking about them phasing-in in 2019 and 2020? Is it relatively even or straight-line through, or is it lumpier than that?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. I would say that the trajectory over the time period is fairly straight-lined. It's going to be close enough if you do a third, a third, a third. I would say in terms of buckets, it's going to be a little bit more on the G&A side, but it's going to be both on the G&A and the S side. These things come from initiatives around Workday, which has allowed us to take 176 payroll systems down to one. We had 52 onboarding systems for people and exit systems for people. We've taken those down to one around the globe. This certainly is a lot simpler and a lot more cost-effective. If you look at SAP, we're already rolling out looking at both tank monitoring upgrades, which is going to lead to route efficiency. Often, these are our carriers – our contracted carriers, our own people dropping off tank loads of product, putting it into the plant tank. If we know exactly where they stand in all these tanks, you can route differently. You don't have any outages and it's a heck of a lot safer. Logistics, we already now because of what we've done with SAP in the United States, where we have roughly a third of our production up, we already have better visibility and understand that 12% of what we thought were full trucks aren't actually full. And the best way to reduce shipping costs is to reduce the number of trucks it takes to ship the same amount of volume. So we're all over this stuff. We have better cost visibility; i.e., you can start driving and understanding where it makes sense to maybe go direct and where it makes sense to partner with distributors in a more collaborative way. We'll have a number of other opportunities. Field technology, we're moving to online ordering. We're creating a portal so our customers can do online ordering today. Frequently, they phone us or even still fax us. And let me just say, fax machines aren't the most efficient way to take an order, as you can imagine. So there's just a whole host of things that are going on, and these tools are being deployed now. And so you'll see it, both on the S side, but disproportionally on the G&A side early. We always drive S efficiency. We'll continue to do that, and these new platforms will enable us to do that for a longer period of time.
John P. McNulty - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Great, thanks very much for the color.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Tim Mulrooney with William Blair. Please proceed with your question.
Tim M. Mulrooney - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Yeah, good afternoon. You guys typically get 50 to 60 basis points in operating margin expansion on higher volumes and net of pricing. And I'm calculating a 30 to 40 basis point expansion over the next three years from the restructuring plan. So adding that together, thinking about over the next several years, I'm looking at 90 to 100 basis points in operating margin expansion over the next three years, I guess. Is that how you guys are thinking about this?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. It's designed to be additive. So by and large, that's the math that we would get to too.
Tim M. Mulrooney - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Okay, great. And then looking at your free cash flow for the quarter, I guess it was lower than expected. Was there a large working capital adjustment in the second quarter?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
I'll let Dan have this one.
Daniel J. Schmechel - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. Thanks. It was, well, not an adjustment, let's be clear. The second quarter followed what I would say is a very strong first quarter cash flow performance. But yes, it was – taking the first half in total, it was below last year, which is not a typical outcome for us. And you put your finger on it. So on a year-to-date basis, operating cash flow behind last year is something like $75 million, essentially all of that was in working capital. I would break it down for you maybe into a few drivers. Of course, good news increased pricing and increases, also the uncollected receivables balance. So that's a chunk of it. There's also some payment timing, I would say in North America, which we watched it carefully at the end of June and saw accelerated payments in July. So the net of it, I would say growth of Energy likewise, which has higher days or cash invested is good news, but it has an impact on working capital. So the net of it is I think there's some timing impact that will reverse in increased pricing. We'll have some impact for the full year as will strong Energy performance. But look, the net of it is I feel very good about our cash flow performance for the full year and expect that we'll be delivering very good cash conversion from our reported net income.
Tim M. Mulrooney - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Okay. Dan, just even with higher working capital, is it safe to assume free cash flow grows faster than EBITDA in 2018 given the benefit from tax reform?
Daniel J. Schmechel - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yes, I would think that that would be right, okay?
Tim M. Mulrooney - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Okay. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Hamzah Mazari with Macquarie Group. Please proceed with your questions.
Hamzah Mazari - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Good afternoon. I was just curious if you could share any color around customer churn. It feels like it's run slightly below 10% for a bit. Any room to improve that, or does it structurally just – is that maxed out for you?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
The customer churn numbers or retention on the positive side is really different by business. I would say in a number of the businesses, we are at historic low levels, which is good. It's a strong economy. This is what we look for as we go through these periods. I don't think that's where you're going to see dramatic improvement because we're typically best-in-class in most of the businesses we compete in. Where we look for improvement, if you will, from a sales driver standpoint is, one, just more new business. We talked about how we had a lot of success in the first half this year capturing a number of large pieces of business. It was up 20% or over 20% versus same period year ago. That's a great number for us. It's our best leading indicator of sales acceleration in the past and we believe still is. That's where we're going to focus our effort in terms of improving the top line.
Hamzah Mazari - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Okay. And just a follow-up question, on Institutional, anything relative to your expectations you're seeing in the European business? I guess it was flat. I know it's more competitive and your scale isn't as big versus domestically, but just curious as to how you're thinking about that segment.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. Institutional overall, the underlying sales growth in the first quarter we cited as 4%, even though the printed number was larger and said we would expect maybe the printed number to be lower in the second quarter as distributor inventories balanced. We had some distributor inventory build in Q1. Our underlying growth again was 4%, a little north of 4% in Q2. And we continue to expect that we're going to expand that to 5% in the second half and as an exit rate in 2018. So the business is I would say globally improving, accelerating at about exactly the pace that we thought it would. We would have loved to have it go faster, but that's exactly what we thought we would see. In terms of Europe, we thought Europe was going to be soft in the first half. We believe it's going to be a little stronger in the second half, still do. With that said, it's probably the toughest business environment that we compete in, in the Institutional business globally. With that said, we should be able to overcome it with better execution, which is exactly what we're focused on. So we don't believe it's a 1% growth business forever. But right now, the business is not performing to our expectation. It's low, it will be low single digits for the year.
Hamzah Mazari - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Manav Patnaik with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.
Manav Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Thank you, good afternoon. My first question is just on Healthcare performance. I guess it sounds like Europe was the weak area. I was just wondering. I know you said there's obviously continued challenges in that business overall, but just some more color there in terms of maybe if you have the right portfolio mix, if you need more changes to make there.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
I would say Healthcare, clearly of all – I would say all of our businesses are outperforming the market, the exception being Healthcare. With that said, the market is a little dicier in Europe than it is in North America. North America has some challenges. But in Europe, France in particular, they went through some changes in healthcare. I think we've adjusted well. We're going to have a slow first half and expect to have an accelerating back half. I think there are a lot of reasons to believe we'll have an uptick in reacceleration starting in the third quarter and moving throughout the year. In North America, I would say it's as much execution on us as anything. We have improved significantly our program efforts, things that we put around room cleaning, hand care vectors, operating theaters, central sterile, and the like. Cumulative they're growing by double digits, so they're doing well. It's the non-program sales which are softer than expected, and we're simply going to have to do a better job managing both. I don't know what else to say. The team is on it. We expect to have a better second half. It's not going to be what I would call robust, but it will be improved.
Manav Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Okay, got it. And then just tied to your efficiency plans, I guess when you think about your 20% margin target, are there other opportunities that would be additive, like you said, to just the operating leverage you have in the business that you feel like you can touch on in the coming years?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yes, I think we're moving into a period – we've been in a recent period of fairly significant investment in our business, even while we were going through FX headwinds and oil market headwinds. We did not blink on what we thought were critical investments for the business, and these are backbone technologies like one HR system and what we call Catalyst, which is SAP North America. But most importantly are also digital expenditures to improve our ability to serve customers. All of this is paying off, and we've had significant investment there. And so I think what you're now going to see is probably increased focus on harvesting these investments as we go forward, the natural order of things. And so we do expect that we're entering a period where you're going to see more expansion in terms of SG&A margins, for the simple reason that we're done upping investments. We may stay at this level for a while, but we don't have to increase investments year after year after year. And you're going to start seeing the fruits from the investments already made.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.
Laurence Alexander - Jefferies LLC:
Good afternoon. I guess two quick ones. One is can you characterize the trends in the Life Sciences business, very strong growth there? But also just following on the last point you made, if you look out say four or five years, do you see a bridge as your productivity – as you flex the productivity and your pricing catches up to raws to get 200 – 250 basis points of margin expansion, or is that more challenging?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
On Life Sciences, yes, Life Sciences is a business we created a couple years ago ,and we took a hunk of it out of the Healthcare business and also a little bit out of the F&B business to create this. We wanted more focus on Healthcare, probably isn't perfect for the optics, but it's the right thing to do for the business. And Life Sciences is doing exactly what we hoped it would do. It's going to grow by probably mid-teens this year in terms of top line as a percent growth. The bottom line follows. It's a very attractive margin business, as you would expect. Our technologies are highly valued in the pharmacos and cosmetic industries. We make a big difference there. Why we haven't been after this for the last 30 years, I have no great answer to, but we're on it now. And the team is doing a very good job. This is an industry that's characterized by large multinationals. They're looking for consistent service around the globe in all their areas. They need cleaning-in-place technology. They need water reduction technologies. All the stuff that we do is what they need. And so it's a perfect match for us, and so we're going to go after it. In terms of how much margin improvement we see, I guess we've talked. We're here for the year at 14%, just under 15% margins, and we've talked that we believe 20% is real. I still believe it is very real. And we're now starting to lay out, because we can go harvest the investments that we've made, they're going to start adding fuel to margin accretion. We'll catch up on this pricing raw math. We always do. We will here again, and you'll start seeing more significant margin accretion over the next few years. So I don't believe we're anywhere near running out of margin room.
Laurence Alexander - Jefferies LLC:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.
David I. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Thank you. Doug, you mentioned some market share gains and some business wins. Are these benefits from some of your competitor disruptions this year as they get acquired, or is this normal Ecolab winning at the customer?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Given the history I seem to have with competitors and disruption, it seems more like a constant than anything else. So I don't know if it's because people are disrupted or not. We tend to gain share and have obviously over a number of years because we outpace our major competitors in terms of top line growth and have for a long time. And we hold ourselves to a high bar, and we want to continue to do that. So we're gaining share in all of our major businesses across the board. The teams are doing a very good job. They're leveraging innovation that they've invested in and rolled out. We feel like we are – we really had a very strong first half. We had a very good quarter. Sometimes you have a dip after that because you just get a collection of new wins that happen. They all just say yes at the same time, but we followed it up with another very strong quarter in the second. So we're doing well in that area.
David I. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
And just on that second half volume acceleration that you're pointing to, Doug, I guess in Institutional, is there one or two drivers of that, or is it a multitude drivers for the acceleration you're talking to?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Are you talking Institutional specifically or broadly?
David I. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
I'm really broadly speaking here.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
I would say if you – our forecast for the second half, really the sales volume trend and the pricing trends are very straight-line, consistent with the trends that we see right now. There's no bend to them. And so we have fairly good visibility, and I would say the very solid new business experience we just had in the first half makes us quite confident that we're going to continue to see acceleration through the second half and even into early next year. And that's typically the type of visibility that metric gives us. The pricing, same thing, we're not looking for all of a sudden going from 2% to 4% in a quarter. It's very consistent with the type of acceleration that we've seen over the last six quarters we expect to continue in the next couple. And as I mentioned in my preamble, we have visibility and have already secured 75% of the pricing that we need this year, which would be a little ahead of our normal trend in terms of timing of securing during – as we're looking to this. So those are not unique. And obviously, cost savings are the easiest thing to codify and to understand simply because they're all under your control. So none of those trends are what I would say unique. They're very straight-line as we go through. That's what's going to drive the acceleration. What it's offsetting is really a step function change in raw material costs third quarter to second, which basically stays roughly at that level through the balance of the year. It does not accelerate all through the year. And this is – we're using outside indices. They actually call for a let-up in the fourth quarter versus the third. We have a very modest one, but it's really only $0.01 or $0.02. It's not a big deal. If it doesn't happen, it doesn't happen. We'll manage it. But those are the fundamental factors that drive our forecast. So when you look through it, there's not a hockey stick in this thing. But it does mean that we've got to continue to accelerate as we've been on volume, continue to do what we've been doing on pricing, and deliver the cost savings. But those are all things that we're good at.
David I. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Very good, thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.
Vincent Stephen Andrews - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Thanks and good afternoon, guys. I just wanted to ask in the Energy segment, in the quarter you had very nice margin expansion year over year. And as I recall from the call three months ago, you didn't really expect that to happen till the second half of the year. So what made it happen earlier?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
I'd say a couple things. One, we did – I think OI was up 28% I think in the second quarter for our Energy segment. There were some beneficial one-timers in there. With that said, it would still have been 15% if you control for those, which still obviously indicates good margin recovery. Look, we're getting pricing. We've had very solid volume. The team is doing a good job. We're emphasizing profit recovery. We're being very disciplined on RFPs. We aren't going to chase really low-margin deals or deals that could turn cash negative if you're not careful. We don't want to play that game and we're not. And they're all over pricing, rolling out new technology, and recovering the profit that we know that business can deliver. And so I think you see that work coming through. The Energy business base is a little lumpy, and so we're going to see changes throughout the year. But our expectation remains now what it was when we entered the year, which is high single-digit sales and low double-digit OI, so the beginning of margin recovery. We think going out a few years, we're going to continue to see high single-digit sales, but better profit recovery in the out years as pricing overtakes raws, if you will.
Vincent Stephen Andrews - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. And just as a follow-up, I think this was a big quarter for the ERP implementation. It doesn't sound like there have been any hiccups or anything like that. But separately from that, within the – are there any plans to install any of the pricing modules, other things like that with ERP that might be down the road or any opportunities there at all?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yes, there's a whole commercial piece that you put on this system. A lot of it is our own because we've been running SAP in a number of parts of the world and have configured a lot of this work. We rolled out Canada first because it's going to run exactly the North American design, if you will, and it's been running now for a little over a year. But yeah, those will be follow-on implementations on this system. But we've done it many times. I would say – I can't say that you never have hiccups as you roll out SAP. SAP is always difficult to do. We've just done it a number of times. And as I say, none of these events and we've managed through a bunch, our team has done an excellent job. And I would say the big risk is more behind us than in front of us, but there's never zero risk with an SAP implementation.
Vincent Stephen Andrews - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Thanks very much.
Operator:
The next question is coming from the line of Chris Parkinson with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your questions.
Christopher S. Parkinson - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Hi, guys. You hit on this a little, but just given the composition of just your outlook for global energy market growth over the next few years, can you just walk us through some top level outlooks for your three sub-segments, your comfort with the existing cost base, and just any quick thoughts on your ultimate ability to reach prior peak margins? Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Look, we had a mid-teens margin in the Energy sector as a total, and I'm quite confident we'll reach that again. I don't believe that's the ceiling for that business. If you want to go by segment, WellChem continues to re-expand fairly quickly. It falls fast and recovers quickly, and it's doing exactly what we would expect it to do. It grew around 40% in the first half and will slow a little bit just because it's starting to go against a bigger base. But for the year, it's going to be north of 30%. And you're seeing significant OI recovery in that business as well as they, one, feed off higher sales and also have margin expansion because they're getting price and driving new technology doing exactly what they need to do to recover. Downstream is the steadiest business. Downstream also has pretty solid top line growth. Mid to upper single digits this year is our expectation. We're seeing margin recovery there as well, as they're starting to recapture price that they gave up through the downturn. That business, though, is what I would call acts much more like a traditional Ecolab or Nalco Water business in its characteristics. And so you're seeing that play out through all parts of the cycle. And then OFC, OFC is always a little bit of a laggard versus WellChem in terms of recovery, but you're starting to see recovery now. We'll have very modest margin recovery this year. Sales are going to be mid-single digits this year. We expect that business to accelerate next year, and it's really a tale of two cities. The U.S. is closer to double-digit growth where you've got strong unconventional recovery. And international lagged, it lagged falling in and it's lagged coming out. None of this is unexpected. Next year, we would expect to have both North America and international be positive contributors.
Christopher S. Parkinson - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Great, and just a quick follow-up. Can you just give us a little more color on the new selling initiatives within Healthcare and how you're ultimately progressing? I understand it's the early innings, but just any color on how to think about these and the effect on growth and margin in 2019 versus 2018 would be helpful. Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
As I mentioned earlier, our program efforts around room hygiene and central sterile and operating turnover, et cetera are doing quite well. They're growing double digit year on year. We continue to have success. We have a good pipeline. The team's on that. We like the margins. We like the trade with the customer. Obviously, the customer likes it too. In terms of – we have a host of products. Many of them are even included there, but they're also sold in non-program formats, sometimes through GPOs or through other distribution arrangements. And there we just had weaker sales than we expected. And we need to up our focus on that area as well because you can't just – you don't want to just sit there and fill the hole with great work on the program side. We need more stability on the other side, which we're quite confident we can obtain. So I don't know what to tell you. We expect to move off the floor, which is where we're right now. The team has done a good job I think rethinking their plan for the balance of the year, and we expect to see accelerating growth in the third and fourth quarter this year leading into 2019, which we believe will be a stronger year.
Christopher S. Parkinson - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Great, thank you.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Andrew Wittmann with Robert W. Baird. Please proceed with your questions.
Andrew John Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
Great, thanks for taking my question, guys. I was just hoping to get a little bit more context on some of the volume trends that you've seen in the business. I know we're going to get detail on this in the 10-Q. But for the discussion today, volumes did decline sequentially. Obviously, the Institutional thing we've talked about a couple of times already, but I don't know if that's enough to explain the full 2 percentage points decline in rates. So I was hoping you could just maybe, Doug, go through the segments a little bit and talk about where the other reasons for the sequential decline was at. I think one that might stick out to me would be potentially that the comparison in Energy. But is there anything else there that explains and helps us get context for the volume decline sequentially – volume rate decline, not decline?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yes, it's really two things. It is Institutional in Q1, where you had a distributor upping inventories and in Q2 distributors taking down inventory. The, if you will, consumption of Institutional products was very consistent and improved versus 2017. It was more around the 4%, so you have that. The second factor was we had I would call unusually large Q1 Energy volumes, which we talked about in Q1, and some of it came out of Q2. So Q1 was a little hotter than it indicated in terms of actual consumption, and Q2 was a little lower than actual consumption would indicate. That stuff stabilizes, and what we expect to see is volume growth and recovery, acceleration in the second half much more on a straight-line basis because we know what's going on underneath, if you will, the reported volume numbers in terms of inventory impacts and one-time, where stuff fell in Energy. We have shipments at the end of the quarter at times that fall on one side of the day or the other. And we know they're really designed for the next quarter consumption.
Andrew John Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
That's really helpful. Thank you, that's all I had.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Thanks.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Dmitry Silversteyn with Longbow Research. Please proceed with your question.
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC:
Good afternoon, thanks for taking my question. You guys paid down about $200 million of debt between the first and second quarter. I'm just wondering if there is a goal for end-of-year debt level. Or how should we think about that versus share repurchases given that your share count did go up? So obviously you didn't repurchase as much shares as you did previously. So in terms of capital deployment absent M&A, how should we think about between debt paydown and share repurchases?
Daniel J. Schmechel - Ecolab, Inc.:
Hi, Dmitry. This is Dan. So yes, you're right. We did not repurchase shares in the second quarter. However, let me just say we got off to a pretty good start in the first quarter. So we did about $200 million I think in the first quarter. I would think about share repurchase for the full year sitting here today to be in line with what we did last year, which is about $550 million, as always and as we talked about consistently, and certainly there's no change in our thinking about capital deployment. So from a free cash flow perspective, we will continue to pay the dividend. Of course, we will make investments in the business. We will pursue accretive M&A. And I would really think of share repurchase as being the balancing act in the deployment of free cash flow. So no change in our thinking, and if you look across the full year, I think it will be very much in line with last year and expectations.
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC:
If I can paraphrase you, it looks like you're going to be spending $550 million in share repurchases this year or somewhere in that neighborhood. My model tells me you're going to generate a little bit north of $1 billion in free cash, more like $1.2 billion. So absent M&A, if I assign that difference to debt paydown, I won't be terribly off?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
I would think that you would not be terribly off. So we've targeted A-range metrics in terms of how we think about the capital structure. I've asked for an allowance, we say it's about two times net debt to adjusted EBITDA number. We run a little bit north of that. We should be in line Q2-Q3, by the end of the year. And I'll accept your free cash flow number. I think we can beat it by a little bit, but you're thinking about it the right way. Okay?
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC:
Thanks very much.
Operator:
The next question is coming from the line of Shlomo Rosenbaum with Stifel. Please proceed with your questions.
Shlomo H. Rosenbaum - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Hi, thank you. Most of my questions have been answered. I was hoping to just, Dan, maybe pin you down a little bit more in terms of the free cash flow expectation for 2018. You touched on that a little bit, but do you have a more specific goal? Should we think $1.4 billion? If you can, just give us a little guidance on that for my follow-up.
Daniel J. Schmechel - Ecolab, Inc.:
So I said I would accept the $1.2 billion number and think we can beat it by a little bit. I think that $1.4 billion is pretty good estimate of where we would expect to land the full year, okay?
Shlomo H. Rosenbaum - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay, that's good. Thanks.
Daniel J. Schmechel - Ecolab, Inc.:
Give me a little leeway, but yes.
Shlomo H. Rosenbaum - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay. Doug, I just wanted to ask. What do you see? It seems from your comments that you think you're shaping up to have pretty good organic growth year in the context of the last say four or five, and then 2019 to be able to build on that. What are some of the components that would in your mind have to work right in order to make 2019 be better than 2018? Or I guess another way, is what are you most concerned about in terms of not being able to achieve a better organic growth rate next year than this year?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
I think the fundamental drivers of our growth don't change year to year. And so we need to continue to take share, make sure that we're doing the right thing with customers, and deploy technology, which we're in the midst of, which also enables us to grow our business with our existing customers. And so the investments we've made on digital technology have already grown borne fruit. I would say that we're probably ahead of where I thought we would be at this time. If you went back a year, we've had two big wins in digital with big large customers of ours. We're in the midst of rolling it out. I think these are going to lead to a host of new follow-on opportunities for us simply because it's going to give us all more visibility in how can we continue to improve operations, how can we continue to improve food safety, carbon reduction, water reduction, et cetera. And all of this is exactly how we drive our business, how do we help our customers operate better. So I think it's all in that camp. I don't sit here right now seeing a lot of metrics that make me worried about our organic growth rate next year. Now almost anything is possible in this world, as we're all learning. And my expectation is that we're not going to all play tariff roulette to a point of huge destruction. I just don't think that's how it's going to play out, but I don't know. We aren't directly in the bull's eye of tariff problems; i.e., it's not going to lead to big cost increases specifically for us, because of our strategy of making our products where we sell are in the same currency. But it could have an impact on the global economy, which obviously has an impact on us as well. Barring that, I think we're going to be in good shape moving into the year with very strong momentum on the top line and very strong momentum on the bottom line, as pricing starts overtaking raws clearly in the fourth quarter and strong momentum leading into 2019 for margin recovery.
Shlomo H. Rosenbaum - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay, great. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your questions.
Jeffrey J. Zekauskas - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Thanks very much. I have two questions. The first is your intention is to knock out $200 million in costs in SG&A, and your SG&A base is about $4 billion, so that's about 5%. And you want to do it over three years, so that's 1.5% per year. So does that mean that instead as a base case of your SG&A growing 5% per year, it will grow 3.5% per year? Is that generally the right way to think about it?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
It's a curve bend. Yes, you have inflation, which is a natural part of this. Often, I think these discussions become almost binary, where if you have $4 billion and take $200 million out by 2021, somebody wants to model $3.8 billion, which just isn't realistic. We expect to continue to grow this business from a top line simultaneous to this. But I would say if you modeled our traditional margin accretion that comes from volume, you're going to have additional margin accretion on top of that, which is going to come from pricing, raw favorability; i.e., that formula goes. And the third component will also be getting more efficient at the same time, which is represented by this efficiency program.
Jeffrey J. Zekauskas - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. And in your discussion during the call, I think you referred to some one-time items in the Energy business. Can you describe and quantify what those were?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
There are some one-time large sales of specific products that are even close to commodities in some cases. They have big volume. We sell them. There's very little SG&A associated with it. And so it's just not business we count on routinely, but we captured a very large couple of orders in the second quarter. So we back that out on run rate looking at it, just because that's how we get from 28% to 15%. We'll take if it we find more, don't get me wrong, but we don't think it's – it's not right to indicate that that's our trend.
Jeffrey J. Zekauskas - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay, great. Thank you so much.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of P.J. Juvekar with Citi. Please proceed with your question.
Scott Goldstein - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Hi, good afternoon. This is Scott on for P.J. So I guess I was looking at the business investments you made in the Institutional business. I think you started some growth initiatives that you announced late last year. Is that still ongoing now that you started with this efficiency program?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Oh yes, absolutely, a lot of them were designed for growth. But yes, they will continue.
Scott Goldstein - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Okay. And maybe just as a follow-up, can you remind me where you were adding, what cost bucket you were adding to in Institutional? Was it head count, or was it more on the IT side?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
We were adding, one, you've got SMARTPOWER, and the new technology takes enhanced merchandising equipment or dispensing equipment that you put in customers. Two, we had G360 rolling out. And three, we added manpower specifically in the corporate accounting area.
Scott Goldstein - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Okay, got it. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Scott Schneeberger with Oppenheimer. Please proceed with your questions.
Scott Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Thanks, good afternoon. I was just curious. The industrial acceleration of growth, could we speak, Doug, I guess granularly in each of the subcomponents of what's going to be driving that? I think you've given a good overview of the call. But could we delve in a little bit to the sub-segments in Industrial on how that's going to progress? And I think it was in Shlomo's question you addressed tariffs, but maybe specifically in each of those categories how that could influence one way or the other? Thanks.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Our Industrial business has been doing great. Thank you for asking about it. So I would say a couple things. If you look at our F&B business, it's clearly benefited over the last few years and you're seeing a lot of the culmination of that work right now and its partnership and marriage with Water technology. So the Food & Beverage, food safety program, and the Water are very interlinked. And those together bring outsized value to our customers. And so we've had a lot of success really across the board, and so our F&B business is really performing quite well everywhere. The only exception where it's got any negative – it doesn't have negative pressure, but tough pressure is on the agri side or the dairy side simply because of the kind of pressure in the milk market. So that business, beverage, brewery, protein business, processed food, all of those areas are doing quite well. And I would say that's in the face of a number of customers who are having to close operations, consolidating and everything else. So it's in the face of what I would call a difficult underlying situation for most of the industry. The reason we're succeeding there is because we're bringing great value, world-class food safety I would say probably the best capabilities in that area at significant lower use cost because of the reductions in water and energy that come with the combination of those programs. And that also leads into Water Light. So the Water Light business, which focuses on really all but the heaviest industries, so the Institutional business, the F&B business, even auto manufacturing et cetera, has done I think a great job identifying the best opportunities. They're creating brand new, very exciting programs around legionella prediction and specific programs because people need increased help in that area. They've done a whole host of things. And so that business has really been very steadily in the mid to upper single-digit growth profile and is accelerating as we speak. And then the heavy has been more in the recovery mode. And the heavy business is really set to have a very good year. I think you see two things. One, industry broadly is doing fairly well, so we don't want to skip that part of it. With that said, where we had specific challenges in the heavy business was in China. And while not every place was glowing as a hotspot, China was a bit of a problem. And China is really flipping around now. So we've done a good job I think getting down to the portfolio we need in China. We sold some pieces of the business there that didn't make sense for us to operate, which has allowed us to focus on the pieces that we can operate best. And so you're starting to see real uptick in China, which we think is going to continue from an organic growth standpoint, and it's a big opportunity for us. Water is a big challenge in China. It's part of their five year plan, and our technology helps there. So it's pretty much across the board. Mining is recovering. Paper had a very strong quarter. We expect to have an improved second half versus first half. Again, they're driving new technology, and China recovered in paper as well, which is very important for us for that business given all the high percent of the market that exists there now. So Industrial across the board very strong, really moved from 5% last year to a 6% this year and we expect to even do better in the second half in terms of organic growth in Industrial.
Scott Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker):
That's great. Thanks for the comprehensive answer. Just a quick follow-up, it's been about 1.5 years that you've had Anios in the portfolio. It's a really sizable acquisition. Just give us observations at this juncture. Thanks.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
We just had our first year review on Anios, and it was above all of our internal metrics and projected to stay that way. Our next big review is year three. We watch the business every month, but we always do specific look-backs on every acquisition at 90 days, at one year, and at three years. And so the business is performing. The first quarter and part of the second quarter notwithstanding, we were way ahead of sales in the first year in a number of areas. What we're doing in terms of expanding the Anios business globally, particularly in markets where we don't want to build, if you will, a street-up healthcare business, that strategy has worked quite well and the business has been well led, and that's growing at double digits and continues to. I would say we have a lot of untapped opportunity there that Anios can unlock for us. We also have new technologies from Anios that were acquired with Anios that we're now, one, looking to expand to some of the other markets we're in and also considering expansion in the U.S. and starting the registration process. So Anios I think was an excellent acquisition. It's performed very well. We have high bars in terms of what our expectations are for businesses that we acquire, and it met or exceeded all of those in its first year.
Scott Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Okay, thanks very much.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Mike Harrison with Seaport Global. Please proceed with your questions.
Michael Joseph Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC:
Hi, good afternoon. I was wondering if you could give some detail on the $200 million restructuring program in terms of the savings by segment. Is it going to be pretty evenly divided across the three major segments, or will it have an outsized impact on one or the other?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Mike, here's what I would say. It's too early to go into that much detail. We have very specific, but we're going to have to go make a few calls in terms of which projects we do first. So it's certainly not going to be falling evenly across all three every quarter simply because that's not how the projects work. With that said, I think by year end we'll be able to give you more insight as to what we expect when across the segments.
Michael Joseph Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC:
All right, and then a question on the margin improvement that you saw in the Energy business. You talked about the positive mix that you saw of products there. Are you introducing new products, or are you taking actions to shift customers toward higher margin products? I'm just trying to understand what exactly is going on there and how sustainable those mix changes could be.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, well, we're doing both. One, we held back a number of our new technologies during the downturn because we knew we could never price appropriately for them. And if you go out too low of a price, you'll never recover. And so some of those are being introduced now. If you will, you can have a heavy up portfolio in the near term, but there's a lot of mix change going on in that industry. I would also say what you're starting to see is customers turning back on the technologies they turned off like anti-corrosion technologies in a number of the fields. When they were basically trying to conserve every dollar so that they could survive to the next quarter, they're not really worried about corrosion, which may eat a hole in the pipe in three years. So they are worried about it now because they know they've got a much more stable environment. So a lot of these technologies they're turning back on. These are higher-margin technologies for us. And you start seeing, if you will, more sales per site, which obviously is always highly accretive. So it's a number of those factors. I would expect that we will see continued margin recovery over the next few years, which is why I mentioned we would expect to be back in mid-teens by 2020.
Michael Joseph Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC:
Thanks very much.
Operator:
Our final question comes from the line of Rosemarie Morbelli with Gabelli. Please go ahead with your questions.
Rosemarie Jeanne Morbelli - Gabelli & Company:
Thank you, good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for going past the hour. Doug, you emphasized the focus on digital technology. Does that mean that you are no longer increasing by the same 2% to 3% annually the size of your sales force? And linked to that, is the growth we are seeing coming from market growth or by the fact that you have more feet on the ground, or are they becoming less important given the technology issues and other issues that progress?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, well, we have different parts of our sales team. We've been certainly adding even at a faster rate than 2% to 3% to our corporate account team. They are full-time sales professionals who are focusing on the largest opportunities around the world. And so that's been a steadily – we've been investing in that arena steadily for the last few years and a lot faster than 2% to 3%. So that's going to continue to be an important part of our strategy. Field service capability is going to be vital. I would say what we've learned with the digital capability is we are getting enhanced visibility. One of our great attributes and winning propositions is not only can we identify challenges before they become problems, but we can fix them because we've got the field team to get into restaurants, food plants, hospitals, hotels, et cetera, to actually make a change and change what might be an alarming trend or a concerning trend before it turns into a real challenge. And so that capability is going to become, I would say, more important. How that manifests itself down the road, I think two things. I think we are going to be able to continue to increase our team's ability to handle more business. We'll do it by continuing to offload admin work, other work, make setup easy, make ordering easy, even do automatic ordering, do all this work that today takes their time and free up time to solve problems for customers and identify opportunities. That's the job. And how that shows up in terms of head count I think really depends on how successful we are using the increased capacity that we're creating for sales. If it shows up as increased sales, we're going to love adding people at the same rate. If it doesn't, then we'll harvest it as margin.
Rosemarie Jeanne Morbelli - Gabelli & Company:
Okay, that's very helpful. And then I was wondering if you could talk about pest elimination. We have turned the corner. It is now growing in line with expectation organically. Any potential acquisitions, are there opportunities out there and at a reasonable multiple?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
As you might expect, we are very active looking at potential acquisitions all the time. And we're finding a number of them and we're closing on them. They all seem though to be on the smaller to medium size. Part of that is just valuation today. Valuations for a number of these businesses is high. And if they're relatively small, a high valuation doesn't really get in the way of generating return because we have such a large footprint, we could leverage the technology or whatever they do over our large footprint and more than compensate for maybe a high multiple. If it's a large business, that opportunity doesn't exist in the same way. And if you pay a lot of money for a large business, it's often very hard to generate reasonable returns for your shareholders over a period of time, and we're quite cautious about doing anything in that area. And I would say the landscape is rich of M&A opportunities. We don't need to buy anything to make ourselves competitive to grow the business, I even think to hit 15%. So we're going to do it opportunistically and do it when makes a heck of a lot of sense for our shareholder.
Rosemarie Jeanne Morbelli - Gabelli & Company:
All right, thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. I would now like to turn the floor back to Mr. Monahan for closing remarks.
Michael J. Monahan - Ecolab, Inc.:
Thank you. That wraps up our second quarter conference call. This conference call and the associated discussion slides will be available for replay on our website. Thanks for your time and participation and our best wishes for the rest of the day.
Operator:
This concludes today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines at this time.
Executives:
Michael J. Monahan - Ecolab, Inc. Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc. Daniel J. Schmechel - Ecolab, Inc.
Analysts:
David E. Ridley-Lane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Manav Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc. John Roberts - UBS Securities LLC Chip Moore - Canaccord Genuity, Inc. Tim M. Mulrooney - William Blair & Co. LLC Scott Goldstein - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Christopher S. Parkinson - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC Laurence Alexander - Jefferies LLC Vincent Stephen Andrews - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Mario Cortellacci - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc. Scott Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. Christopher Evans - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC Shlomo H. Rosenbaum - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc. Michael Joseph Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC Rosemarie Morbelli - Gabelli & Company Andrew John Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.
Operator:
Greetings and welcome to the Ecolab First Quarter 2018 Earnings Release Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mike Monahan, Senior Vice President, External Relations. Thank you, Mr. Monahan. You may now begin.
Michael J. Monahan - Ecolab, Inc.:
Thank you and hello, everyone, and welcome to Ecolab's first quarter conference call. With me today is Doug Baker, Ecolab's Chairman and CEO; and Dan Schmechel, our CFO. A discussion of our results along with our earnings release and the slides referencing the quarter's results and our outlook are available on Ecolab's website at ecolab.com/investor. Please take a moment to read the cautionary statements on those materials stating that this teleconference, the discussion, and the slides include estimates of future performance. These are forward-looking statements and actual results could differ materially from those projected. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are described under Item 1A, Risk Factors, of our most recent Form 10-K and in our posted materials. We also refer you to the supplemental diluted earnings per share information in the release. Starting with a brief overview of the results, Ecolab's strong growth momentum continued in the first quarter. Further new business gains, pricing, and product innovation drove strong acquisition-adjusted fixed currency sales growth in all of our business segments. That solid top line growth along with cost efficiency, lower interest expense, and a reduced tax rate yielded the first quarter's 14% adjusted earnings per share increase. These results were in line with our prior forecast as adjusted for the new accounting standards. For more information on the impact of those standards, see our April 18 Form 8-K. Moving to some highlights from the quarter and as discussed in our press release, first quarter 2018 adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 14% to $0.91. This compared with adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.80 a year ago. Consolidated sales rose 10%. Acquisition-adjusted fixed currency sales increased 6%, with strong growth in all of our business segments. Regionally, sales growth was led by North America and Asia Pacific. Adjusted fixed currency operating margins decreased 60 basis points as pricing volume increases were more than offset by rising delivered product costs. Adjusted fixed currency operating income rose 2%. The operating income gain along with lower interest expense and a lower tax rate yielded a 14% increase in first quarter 2018 earnings per share. Adoption of the new revenue recognition standard had a $0.01 per share favorable impact. We continue to work aggressively to drive growth, winning new business through our innovative new products and sales and service expertise as well as driving pricing and cost efficiencies to grow our top and bottom lines at improved rates. We also see continued good underlying sales volume and improving pricing across our business segments and look for that to more than offset continued delivered product cost headwinds and yield stronger income growth. We raised our 2018 earnings forecast. We now expect adjusted earnings per share to rise 13% to 18% to the $5.30 to $5.50 range, with second half earnings growth outpacing the first half as volume and price gains increasingly offset the expected impact of higher delivered product costs and systems investments that will have a greater impact in the first half. We expect strong second quarter sales growth with lower operating margins as improved sales momentum and accelerated pricing are more than offset by higher delivered product costs and systems investments. Adjusted diluted earnings per share are expected to be in the $1.23 to $1.29 range, up 10% to 15%. In summary, we saw continued strong momentum in our business as we began 2018 and expect further improvement over the balance of the year to deliver 13% to 18% adjusted earnings per share growth. And now here's Doug Baker with some comments.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Thanks, Mike. So our first quarter was a good start to what we anticipate will be a very good year. We had strong top line across the board, 10% reported, driven by 6% organic sales. We had good Industrial results; strong Energy; and other, i.e. Pest results; and much improved Institutional sales results. The leading metrics were also solid. New business was up double-digit versus a year ago with strong new product portfolio performance. And pricing continues to progress, and it needs to, because inflation will be even more significant than originally forecast but we believe it's well in-hand and will be well-managed. Q1 represented the high point on a year-on-year basis for raw material increases. We have increased our pricing targets and pricing will continue to build through the year and provide margin leverage beginning Q3 onwards. Separately, we're putting together a comprehensive plan to leverage our system investments, further enhancing SG&A efficiency over the next several years which will provide an added large margin lever, too. In short, we have strong underlying business momentum, pricing overcoming inflation, competence in our ability to navigate the uncertainties, all of which led us to raise our full year forecast. So with that as an overview, I'll turn it back to Mike.
Michael J. Monahan - Ecolab, Inc.:
That concludes our formal remarks. Operator, would you please begin the question and answer period?
Operator:
Yes. Thank you. Thank you. Our first question today comes from the line of David Ridley-Lane with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please proceed with your question.
David E. Ridley-Lane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Sure. Good morning. Wanted to ask a longer-term question on Energy. Assuming crude prices are stable in the $70 or so range, is it a reasonable expectation to believe the segment could return to prior levels of profitability circa 2014 or do we need to see a sustained increase in oil prices to reach back into the mid-teens operating margin?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well I would say we believe that if oil prices did happen to be stable for the foreseeable future, i.e. the end of the cycle, that you would ultimately get back to the mid-teens but it would take a little longer than if you had a, let's say, continuing rise in price. But we would look at that as a favorable environment, though I would also consider probably unexpected just given the history of oil and the likelihood that we haven't seen the last cycle. What we're seeing in oil is balance, if you will, in terms of supply and demand and a lot of political risk, most of which everybody suspects is baked into the price. But the political risk feels more real than not. Ultimately, there's been a lot of CapEx taken out of this business and there's going to need to be more put in just to meet the increased demand and the inability of current supply to meet that demand because it flows off. So that means new oil, and we like new oil. New oil commands more of our technology than the oil it replaces, and that even in a fairly flat environment drives market growth for us. So that's why if you said stable at $70, we would see that it's a growing market. Our ability to grow would be fairly significant over a period of time and we do believe we'd get back to mid-teens.
David E. Ridley-Lane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
And then just a quick follow-up on any potential risk from tariffs. If you've done any work on that either directly on Ecolab or indirectly through tariffs on raw materials. Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. We don't believe we have outsized risk on tariff. Our strategy has always been to try and make where we sell, i.e. make product, secure raw materials, et cetera in the currencies that we're building in to mitigate both currency risk from a strategic standpoint and/or trade risk. And so that will serve us well as we go through this. So I think the tariff impact for us specifically would be fairly nominal. The larger risk of course on tariffs is what to do with the overall economy which of course we wouldn't be completely shielded from, but we would share in that pain with everybody else. And historically, I'd say in difficult environments we perform well, at least relatively well.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Manav Patnaik with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.
Manav Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Thank you. Good afternoon, guys. Maybe just to follow-up on the Energy question. Like I think you talked about earlier on trying to decyclicalize or make less cyclical I guess the Energy piece. I know WellChem is a smaller piece but any update there in terms of your portfolio review on that side?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, we've exited a couple of small businesses that were in the Energy portfolio that were particularly cyclical. They were almost completely related to drilling activity. They were equipment-related or capital equipment-related, so that occurred both fourth quarter and first quarter. So that's a little bit of a beginning of moving on a review we've performed. But that's the only thing that's occurred right now. I'd say within the portfolio and in WellChem, we continue to look for growth in what I would call the more stable part of that portfolio and emphasizing those technologies versus those that might be closely related to drilling activity, and that work has also begun. That would be the two current updates.
Manav Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Got it. And then I was just hoping if you could you just address the Healthcare performance this quarter. I mean, that was way below expectations I guess on our end. It sounded like you were getting things back, and now is it just a timing quarter blip? Can you just address that?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Sure. Yeah, we agree. I mean, Healthcare had a weaker than expected quarter. We expect it will probably continue through a portion of the second quarter. We do remain confident that the balance of the year post that is going to be back more in normal range. Europe, particularly France, is slower than anticipated. Some was just underlying market growth. We were also going against a fairly strong performance year ago in the first quarter. But we had a technology delayed by regulatory issues. Those issues have been resolved. The product is now shipping. And in the U.S., we were lapping a couple of large initiatives last year around intuitive and room hygiene rollouts. So the rollouts that we have, the new business that we have gives us confidence that this is going to be a temporary issue, and it will be back to growth.
Manav Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Got it, all right. Thanks, Doug.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of John Roberts with UBS. Please proceed with your question.
John Roberts - UBS Securities LLC:
Thank you. How is the M&A pipeline looking? And are there more discussions underway, say, in one market area than another?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, I would say we're a fairly constant driver of M&A and have been for a number of years. So the activity doesn't really wax and wane, it's fairly consistent. And I would say our pipeline remains rich. I think we've talked before that the businesses we're in, we're in because we believe they're growth businesses. We're open to acquisitions in virtually all of them. There are a couple of exceptions that we cited. Paper and probably the WellChem area would be the two most notable. With those as exceptions, all others we would be open to driving growth via acquisition if it makes sense. Pipeline looks good. We would expect to have other deals done this year. Obviously that's going to be dependent upon another party agreeing with us on valuation and all the rest. And we'll continue to work hard to be good stewards of the shareholders' money and not force things by paying too high a multiples.
John Roberts - UBS Securities LLC:
And then, Doug, as you roll out more digitally-enabled offerings in the future, do you accelerate obsolescence on the installed base of dumb equipment? And does capital spending accelerate, since I think that's a large part of your CapEx budget? Or is it – it's something that will be immaterial? It'll be upgrading stuff, and we won't notice it?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
I don't think it'll be a material change. We are working in much of the equipment that we have installed that, say, isn't connected to the Internet. And so we don't have the ability to get information from the device that's collecting it to the cloud, per se. That, we're working on retrofit items that are fairly cost-effective that will enable us to move it from the current device to the cloud, cost-effectively. So it's not going to entail a whole retrofit, like rip out and replace with all new, which would add significantly to capital over the near-term. So I don't think it's going to be a big noise.
John Roberts - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay, thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Chip Moore with Canaccord Genuity. Please proceed with your question.
Chip Moore - Canaccord Genuity, Inc.:
Yeah, thanks. Maybe you could talk a bit about the ERP investments. It sounded like you were a little more comfortable on some of the returns, particularly on the margins. Maybe you can provide a little framework for us. Thanks.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. Well, the ERP investments in particular are more loaded in the first half than the second half. And we're sitting here in May 1, I would say it's going as well as these things go, meaning there's no news to report on the call. We put in a new finance package across the U.S. That turned on effectively and on time and we've got crudely 30% of our U.S. supply being run on this system. And we'll be rolling out in other waves the balance of the U.S. And that plant went on and we're manufacturing effectively, billing, shipping, collecting, all the things that you would hope would happen. So I don't think this is going to be real noise this year. If anything, it was a little better than our worst fears in the first quarter. And I would expect you would see the same thing in the second quarter as we move forward.
Chip Moore - Canaccord Genuity, Inc.:
Got it. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Tim Mulrooney with William Blair. Please proceed with your question.
Tim M. Mulrooney - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Yeah, good morning. It looks like the Institutional division has picked up, some of which I think is maybe distributor restocking but also probably some fundamental improvement as well. Is that a function of stronger retention or pricing or customer traffic trends? Would appreciate just any details on what's happening in the Institutional division specifically.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. I would say things played out much as we foresaw during our last call. And if you recall, during that call we discussed our offense really wasn't sufficient given soft market conditions in that our offense has been impacted in particular by a delayed warewash launch which was occurring in December. So I'd say markets are marginally better. I'm not sure it's the huge driver but it certainly it's better. The offense execution I think is materially better. So while the underlying market was good globally it was decent in the U.S. Our retention results, which you brought up, continue to be very good and kind of in the best-in-class range versus our history. So there wasn't a lot of room for improvement there. What really happened is we had improved new business driven by a strong SMARTPOWER launch which is the big warewash launch I referred to earlier that had previously been delayed. I think we're also leading the shadow of the Swisher and field technology introductions that we've talked about in the past. Our view, so we had a reported 5%; really that's a 4% underlying and probably 100 basis points of that growth from channel refill. And the 4% underlying growth compares to really 3% underlying growth in the second half last year. So it's ticked up, it's ticking up as we anticipated and I would say we expect continued good execution through the year, a decent market, foresee 4% underlying growth in Q2 as well and that accelerating to end the year at a 5% underlying growth rate.
Tim M. Mulrooney - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Okay. Thanks, Doug. Maybe switching gears to your Food & Beverage business. In your supplemental you highlighted that new business wins are offsetting continued challenging industry conditions in the food and beverage industry. You guys had great results here, so can you just expand on what you mean by challenging industry conditions and what you expect there?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. I would just say many of our customers are in a difficult environment. So large food processors and, in some cases, large beverage or brewer situations are more challenging than normal, and that always has some impact. It could lead to plant closures, consolidations, et cetera. With that said, I would say we remain quite bullish about our F&B business. We've managed through these issues over time quite successfully; expect to do the same this year. We've had a lot of net new gains in that business, many of which will start driving I think even enhanced sales performance for the balance of the year. So I think we sit in a pretty comfortable place at least as we can see right now from a Food & Beverage standpoint.
Tim M. Mulrooney - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question is coming from the line of P.J. Juvekar with Citigroup. Please proceed with your questions.
Scott Goldstein - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Hi. Thank you. This is Scott on for P.J. If we can just talk about some of the margin pressure year-over-year, the 100-basis point decline year-over-year. Can you perhaps give more color on how much of that came from maybe higher raw material prices versus some of the compensation rebuild in Energy and any other product costs that we can separate out?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. So are you referring to OI or are you referring to GP?
Scott Goldstein - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Operating income.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. So operating income, if you adjust out acquisitions and currency and the rest, was off I think 60 basis points. And I would say a couple of things. If you go up, I mean clearly as I mentioned earlier you're dealing with the largest year-on-year raw material impact. That will dissipate the year-on-year impact. We do not expect raw materials to become cheaper. They're simply going against an easier base because it was a more difficult situation a year ago, and that really began in Q2 last year. And so that's the comparison that eases for us. Pricing will continue to accelerate as we go through this. But at the end of the day, pricing is going to rise we think throughout the balance of the year, moving now from kind of around 1% but obviously a little north of 1% to about 2% for the balance of the year; sometimes rounding up, sometimes rounding down but building as we go throughout the year which will enable us to start seeing improved both gross margin and OI margins beginning in Q3, in some businesses as early as Q2. The real build here is mostly raw material, maybe there's (21:53) some one-time noise. There's a little bit compensation build in some businesses but that's not the big news. We have investments that are predominantly in the first half versus the second half, so it's raws, it's investments both of which ease throughout the year.
Scott Goldstein - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Okay, thank you. And on the Colloidal Technologies business that you separated out, can you just provide some background on that business and why did it makes sense for you to start reporting it as a separate line?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. Our plan is to start reporting it this year prior even to the Equipment Care divestiture. I mean, truth is it takes a while to unpack all of the businesses that existed in the formal Nalco business. I think Colloidal was sort of in and buried. I mean, we knew about the business. But as we learn more about it, it's really we would consider it. It's a good business. It's more a Specialty chemical business. Doesn't have the same service component that virtually all of our other businesses have, so it's managed a bit differently and is a little different than the balance. So the decision was really made late last year that we'd be moving this into the other category as a consequence of its uniqueness. The business, basically we got into this business, if you will – I'm saying the royal we, saying Nalco history in the 1940s and 1950s – it used to be technology used in the water treatment area that was supplanted by technology in other areas. But they learned over time that this technology made a lot of sense in other industries, polishing metal, polishing glass, molding, et cetera. So it's a business with pretty solid customers, very good margins. It grew double digits last year. We anticipate it'll probably have slower growth this year as we focus on margin there as well because raw materials are pretty much a pressure in every business. So it's a good business for us but that it belongs in other.
Scott Goldstein - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Christopher Parkinson with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.
Christopher S. Parkinson - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Great. Thank you. You hit on this a little on the cost side, but in terms of price cost on neutrality can you just walk us through the current pricing initiatives and just how you expect them to roll through the balance of the year? It sounds that in terms of magnitude that you have a pretty solid base case and that pricing is still linked a lot more service-level or value proposition and not necessarily cost. Is that the best way to think about it over the long-term? Thanks.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. I mean, getting pricing is always difficult. I would say we work hard to be sort of continually on the price program, if you will, with customers simply because we work, if you will, to smooth the ups and downs in the raw material market with our customers. We can because raws represent, I don't know, 20-some odd percent of our total P&L, and all businesses would prefer sort of steady impacts versus sharp shock impacts. So when there's an inflationary period we obviously up the amount that we seek and secure from a pricing standpoint. Certainly, having an inflationary environment gives you a better backdrop for pricing discussions. We don't want to lose out on that. It also drives frankly more critical need to get it. We have very many different pricing scenarios with customers. Some have quarterly pricing clauses. At worst, we have annual pricing clauses. We have worked very hard to get out of any fixed price contracts, and we really started that work back in 2004. And as far as I know, we don't have any or any that are really material. I'm sure I could find one somewhere, but that's how we view pricing. Obviously, you have different price pressures in different businesses because raws don't all move in lockstep, and Energy and our Water businesses have more price pressure than other businesses as a percentage of raw increase and are, in turn, seeking, if you will, larger price steps from their customers to cover these; in an Energy case, also to cover price concessions given over the last few years during the downturn in the energy market. So this is a real work for our team. They've been on it. We've seen very steady sequential improvement in pricing starting in the first quarter of last year. We expect to see continued sequential improvement this year as we move through the year, and that is the numer one tool we're using to offset the raw material inflationary environment which I'd also say includes freight by the way, and it it's critical that we get this done. I'm confident we will but it is real work by the team which is appreciated and that's how we have to set ourselves up moving into next year.
Christopher S. Parkinson - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Great. And just can you talk a little more about Institutional growth as it pertains to full service restaurants versus your solid growth in QSRs? Just what's your overall expectation in the intermediate to long-term for full service foot traffic? And given that you positively expanded the delta of your growth versus some challenging industry trends, is that positive gap sustainable if foot traffic, let's say, stabilizes or even turns positive based on new initiatives and new products? What's the best way to think about that? Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. I think this 4% to 5% range, 5% when things are little bit better, might reach into 6% at times, I think is a range that is sustainable from Institutional alone, even given what I would call modest market or semi-challenging market conditions. So look, we continue to make sure that we secure share and secure great positions in all market segments. It's the best way we can predict – or, I mean, protect our ability to grow in almost all environments. We've done a good job there. We've always been after the emerging chains. We worked very hard in fast casual segment and done a good job securing share there as well. We do a good job partnering when it makes sense for customers between QSR and Institutional, as QSR increasingly looks to develop labor-saving devices, read warewash machines and other technology in their units because of the pressure on labor wages via both healthcare and just rising wages and the pressure on $15. So all of these things come to play. So I think I was very clear. For a while, Institutional was growing at the 7% rate, and I said it's not our terminal rate of growth. Don't bake this in. It's faster than we're going to see for the foreseeable future. And when we were at 3%, I was also saying, don't bake this in. This is lower than we anticipate and believe that we're going to see. Getting back in this 5% range is I think quite achievable and reasonable, and it's a reasonable expectation going forward.
Christopher S. Parkinson - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
That's helpful. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.
Laurence Alexander - Jefferies LLC:
Good afternoon. Can you talk a little bit about sort of the demand trends in Energy? I mean, you're going back so close to the energy crash (29:55) to get back the price concessions you gave. Can you talk a little bit about sort of is there any regional difference in where you're seeing traction or any customer mix issues that are complicating that effort?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. Sort of it's the mirror and, I mean, it's opposite of what we I guess experienced in the downturn. WellChem is moving quickest and U.S. is moving quickest, and it did in the downturn and it is in the upturn. And so clearly WellChem is the fastest growth business, but it also had the largest decline. It's also we're seeing the earliest largest price traction, which you would expect because it had had the most price degradation as well as we went through. The good news is, as we went through the decline we would swap out technology when we had the lower price so that we protected, in most cases, our most efficacious technologies from taking big price declines. We are now reintroducing that technology because of needs of the market, i.e., to get more out of existing holes in the ground. That's working. I would say you're seeing in OFC better pickup in terms of sales in North America, again mirroring what we experienced before, i.e., U.S. went down fastest, it's now recovering quickest. We would expect to see recovery broadly around the global regions, starting more like next year. So there's still more in front of us we think even in this current price environment. So I don't know if that helps. Those are the areas. Downstream was more steady, I think you're seeing more steady. It's going to be mid-single digits this year. But there again we're getting pricing, because we had some concessions and we have raw material impact. So pricing is a focus in all three of the areas, but you're seeing the most dramatic pickup in WellChem.
Laurence Alexander - Jefferies LLC:
And then in Institutional, are there any areas where you're looking at increasing the rate at which you're expanding the sales force, given the wider competitive advantage that you've been developing over the last few years? Does it then make sense to grow the sales force faster or to see growth after 2020?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, I would – I think given the size of Institutional, I mean, you certainly get into this equation in many businesses where you need to hire sales people in advance of growth, given where they are in terms of development, particularly if you're smaller and you have a more underdeveloped sales team that – I mean, if you think at the very beginning of a business, if you don't hire anybody in sales, it's going to be hard to grow. Institutional is at a point of maturity where we're a little bit out of that mix globally on average. There are markets, read China, parts of Southeast Asia, even in cases in East Europe and some other specific areas, where we do have to add sales in advance of growth. And we are doing that and we'll continue to do it. But I would say in the more mature markets, i.e., U.S. and/or Western Europe, that's not really the situation we're in. We much more try to add almost as a percentage of growth or expected growth as we go through. We are adding but not at a dramatic rate.
Laurence Alexander - Jefferies LLC:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.
Vincent Stephen Andrews - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. As price achievement goes from 1% plus or minus to 2% plus or minus, could you just help us understand how much of that's going to come from customers that are already giving you price increases, that are giving you more, versus customers that haven't? And are there any sort of deltas or differences that are important to understand between the segments? Thanks.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. Well, I'd certainly think there'll be very few customers at the end of a two-year period who haven't been touched on pricing, i.e., last year and this year. And some in fact will have been asked for several price increases. It's very dependent upon the business and the raw material pressures in a given area and/or their product mix. So it's hard to generalize, but I'd just say many will have two. I mean virtually all will have one.
Vincent Stephen Andrews - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. And then just as a follow-up on raw materials or just inflation in general, are you at all affected by what's been going on with truck freight expense and things like that? Or do you have it completely within your own control?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
No, we're impacted clearly. We use a lot of common carriers for both shipments in between facilities of our own shipments as well as customer shipments. Freight is a real challenge and we're doing a number of things. We're looking at our freight policies. We're looking at our freight breaks. We're reevaluating minimums and all the rest of the stuff. I mean, the best way to reduce freight is reduce shipments, and I don't mean reduced tonnage. So we've got to look at ways of economizing and being smarter here, and it's in our customers' best interest too. I would say everyone that's in business in the U.S. fully understands this and is experiencing it first hand. So it's not new, it's not real news, and nobody can pretend this is a made up issue.
Vincent Stephen Andrews - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
You bet.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Hamzah Mazari with Macquarie. Please proceed with your question.
Mario Cortellacci - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Hi, guys. This is Mario Cortellacci filling in for Hamzah. In the European Institutional business, could you give us an update on what you're seeing in the competitive environment?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. That's always been our most difficult competitive environment. It remains so. That's a truism for the last several decades. We don't expect it to change dramatically. I don't know that we've seen dramatic change in the competitive environment there. Our largest competitor is Diversey. They're with a new owner now. They remain quite price aggressive but they've been price aggressive for as long as I've been at the company, and that's almost three decades now which is tough to admit. So I don't know what to say. I mean, it's not our best performing business in that region. We've stabilized sales. We would expect based on leading indicators that we'll move to growth in the second half, be relatively flat to minorly up in the first half but nothing significant, but improved in the second half as it looks right now.
Mario Cortellacci - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Perfect, and just one more and I'll turn it over. Could you update us on how you think about the timeline of reaching your 20% margin target?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. Well I'd say the FX gods have finally coughed up a few points which we greatly appreciate. I would say this. I still believe this is a 20% OI business. And even when we rolled out that target, we were fairly clear to say it wasn't going to occur by 2020 but we got a little hung up on alliteration or at least the magic of 2020 and 20%. So I would say it's going to be in the early 2020s. I would certainly hope before 2025, but it's a goal that I think is achievable and is reasonable for this company to pursue. We look at other companies with the advantages that we have in technology and capabilities with customers. They achieve it. I don't see any reason why we can't also. The key isn't, from a customer standpoint, your margin; the key is the value. And if we continue to do a great job bringing great value to our customers, they're going to measure this not on what we make but on what benefit it brings to them, and that's how they calculate value, i.e. what they're willing to pay. So for us to do it, we've got to keep delivering and developing great new technology. I like what we've got in the pipeline. We'll see.
Mario Cortellacci - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Thank you so much.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Scott Schneeberger with Oppenheimer. Please proceed with your question.
Scott Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc.:
Thanks. Good afternoon. Doug, can we focus on Water for a minute? Could you just speak to – kind of compare and contrast end markets, geography, how the pricing objectives are going there, and then maybe any thoughts on margin as we progress first half to second half? Thanks.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. So I would say the Water business had really pretty strong results in virtually every region. And if you look at sort of that core heavy/light Water business accelerated and its organic growth rate in the first versus the fourth, so it continues to strengthen in a number of areas. The only region and the only place that we are still recovering in in the core Water is really China heavy industry, and a lot of that has to do with what's been happening in China heavy industry, i.e. they've been shutting down plants and facilities and obviously you don't sell a lot when the facility goes out of business. That too will pass. I think we're in good position there to accelerate that business moving forward, so we feel good about where we are in Water broadly. From a pricing standpoint, I would say generally we're having good success in pricing. Asia is always a tougher environment to get pricing than the other markets but we are also pushing very hard to make sure that we secure pricing there as well. But I guess our Water team and I remain confident that we are going to secure the pricing we need to start seeing margin leverage in that business beginning in Q3 as well.
Scott Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc.:
Okay, thanks, helpful. And then a little unorthodox on the follow-up question, but over – it's been about two years since Venezuela was deconsolidated, and clearly and unfortunately things have not gone better in that geography. Is that probably a never again for Ecolab or how should we think about that? Obviously it's been quiet and will probably remain so for the near-term, but just thinking longer-term is that something that probably will not return?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well every one of my either private or public predictions around Venezuela and the regime change and everything else have been completely wrong. So based on my track record, I would take all this with a grain on salt. Someday I got to imagine things will change politically in Venezuela. I have no idea when that's going to occur. We did have to deconsolidate. We no longer had control over that business in any reasonable way, and I think you've seen that play out for a number of companies over the last few years. We are still operating in Venezuela. It's not easy. We have literally 50-year customers in that market that we've worked very hard to continue to support as we go forward. They were customers before this regime. They will likely be ongoing entities post this regime. And so what we've worked very hard to do, and I'll just describe it because I don't think it's going to happen in the near-term, is preserve the option for the company by making sure that we support this business without investing more dollars, and that's a trek, so far so good. But it's important that we maintain, if we can, the support for these customers. They've been very important to us over a number of years and we want to make sure we do everything we can for them within reason. We won't do anything illegal. We won't put anybody in harm's way, et cetera, but it's a very, very challenging situation. So I wouldn't count on it and I certainly wouldn't buy the stock based on a Venezuela turnaround but we do work to keep the option open for the company.
Scott Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc.:
All right. Thanks for sharing that.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Bob Koort with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.
Christopher Evans - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Hey, guys. It's Chris Evans on for Bob. I was hoping maybe we could get a little more color on the other income line that showed up in the quarter. I assume that's a consequence of some of the accounting changes you made. I just want to know what kind of margin impact for the segments that may have had and what to expect going forward.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. I'm going to – Dan gets to handle this because it's pension and the new accounting changes.
Daniel J. Schmechel - Ecolab, Inc.:
Right. So, yeah, what shows up now below our reported operating income is what I'll describe as the sort of non-service, which means the good guy part of the pension reporting. So on that other income line you basically have the expected return on pension assets and plus a bunch of other pluses and minuses, but I would think of it as primarily being the expected return on the pension assets. And as you can tell, it's up pretty significantly year-on-year just based on strong performance of the asset last year. The impact of pulling out the favorable aspect of pension out of operating income corporately is about a 50-basis point depression to reported operated income margins and I would think about that as breaking pretty evenly across the public segments plus or minus.
Christopher Evans - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Thanks and appreciate that. And then maybe just going into Energy for a minute. You've previously guided to some of the comp rebuild kind of ending here in the first quarter, some of the raws pressure sort of lapsing a bit. So as we get into the second quarter is that maybe the first time you'll actually see the margin trajectory turn positive after a couple tough years?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. I would say Energy is going to turn margin-positive year-on-year potentially Q2, it won't be dramatic. Q3, we're quite confident it will be positive by Q3. So I'd say over the next couple of months it's going to be turning positive from a margin standpoint. I don't know what the math is exactly is going to be in Q2 but I will tell you it will turn in Q2.
Christopher Evans - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Dmitry Silversteyn with Longbow Research. Please proceed with your question.
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC:
Hello, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. Just wanted to touch on a couple of your businesses that are maybe smaller but have seen some difference in growth and I just want to make sure what's going on there. Number one is on your Pest business. It was up 8% excluding acquisitions. Should we continue to expect this high single-digit growth to continue and is it driven by you're getting more scale and better business in Europe or is it both domestic and European expansions? And also, when can we expect the 6% or so contribution from acquisitions to anniversary in that SBU?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. Dmitry, I think the Pest business has been really performing at a very high level for several years now and we expect it to continue this year, so high single-digit type growth is I think a fair expectation. I certainly have it as we look at the business. And, yeah, they're doing it the old fashioned way. I mean, they're keeping customers and selling new ones. It's strong U.S. performance but also good performance in our Europe businesses which are other businesses of scale. So it's fairly uniform. They're doing a good job on some of the smaller international businesses as well and have improved those businesses. We had, if you went back a few years, couple businesses there that weren't performing in a satisfactory manner certainly from an operating income standpoint and they've improved as well. So I feel good about where we are in Pest.
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC:
And the acquisition anniversarying, is that a second quarter event?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
For Pest?
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC:
Yes.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
The Pest acquisition, I mean, what we internally call triples, fourth I think, second half.
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC:
Second half.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
I don't remember the exact date sitting here, but in my head I want to say October, December – I don't – fourth quarter.
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC:
Okay. So it'll continue to be a driver through the next couple of quarters.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, but acquisition-adjusted growth, right, is very favorable too. We take it out of that.
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC:
Right, which is why I wanted to differentiate the two. Okay. And then as a follow-up, I know you mentioned Paper as one of the areas that you're not looking to invest but it is a mid-single-digit grower for you lately and it hasn't all been every quarter but it certainly has been a low to mid-single-digit grower fairly consistently. Sort of how do you do that without making the investments or without making above minimum investments I guess? And what does this business have to do to change your mind about viewing it as a long-term contributor to your P&L and to your value proposition?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, to be clear, we too like the Paper business, and our desire not to add to it through acquisition is not a statement that we don't like it. I don't plan on adding onto my home but I still like it. So I would say in the Paper standpoint, we do invest in it. We invest in R&D. We do not pull punches. If we're in a business, we're in it to win it. And we need to make sure that we stay in the inv1estments needed to meet customer needs today and tomorrow. And so we have a very active R&D portfolio. In fact, we have several real breakthrough items that have come through the Paper R&D development that frankly we think are going to be quite positive in other parts of our business as well. So I want to differentiate that comment. And so as long as we own a business, we're on the gas. We're working to grow it. There's some portfolio management about where do you really want to go put incremental dollars, and that's a diff1erent decision. So I'm with you. I like the Paper business. We've invested. It's done quite well for us. We always said it was maybe the third most attractive business, but it was still attractive when we purchased Nalco, so a lot of this is that history that goes back now seven, eight years. But since then, Paper EBITDA margins and all the rest have improved handily. And we're proud of what that team's accomplished and look forward to what they're going to accomplish going forward.
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC:
Hey, Doug, that's helpful. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Shlomo Rosenbaum with Stifel. Please proceed with your question.
Shlomo H. Rosenbaum - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Hi, good morning. Thank you – or good afternoon, thank you for taking my questions. Hey, Doug, we've had two quarters in a row of 6% organic growth in each of the quarters. There's some talk about things that might be a little bit more one-time-ish, but it seems like you've gotten to that level. Should we think that that's kind of a high water mark for the near-term in terms of being at 6% growth? Or is that something that you think could be a sustainable number, given the improvements that you're seeing within the business and the momentum? Can you talk about what could put that up versus down and where you're co with right now?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. No, I think the 6%, we've talked for a long time that we believe that's kind of a going rate for our business. I believe it's a going rate for the balance of the year. Whether every quarter exactly at 6% or some number right around it, could be above, could be below. But I think for the year our expectations would be in that range for organic sales growth.
Shlomo H. Rosenbaum - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay, great. And just to follow-up, can you give a little more details about this comprehensive efficiency initiative? What exactly is it? Is it multi-year? What's meant to accomplish with this versus what you generally do in a kind of day in, day out, looking for efficiencies in the business?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. Well, the difference is that we've had sizable investments in systems. And we've talked about it, and we've talked about high water marks and that this has been important to us and we think setting the stage for the future. Well, whenever you're justifying those internally, obviously there's a return on that investment. And the return is typically driven by efficiencies. So we're getting at a point where there's some maturation on these system implementation plans. And it is now time to start putting in place the plans to specifically harvest, if you will, the efficiencies that these enable. And these aren't overnight efficiencies. These are efficiencies that you build over several years, but you've got to get after kind of a start date and get pushing on this fairly aggressively, or you never quite realize your full potential. And so what this is about is sort of declaring that it's time now to switch from investing to also implementing the efficiency benefits that we're going to see, and that's what we're talking about. So there'll be more conversation about this going forward. This will be another important lever in our arsenal. We always talk about continuing to drive OI margin over periods of time and certainly this is going to be one of the tools that enables us to do that.
Shlomo H. Rosenbaum - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Mike Harrison with Seaport Global. Please proceed with your question.
Michael Joseph Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC:
Hey, good afternoon. Maybe building on the last question a little bit, the new customer installation and innovation investments that you referenced in the Institutional business, what's the timeframe for when we should expect to see you leverage those costs? Is that something that we kind of see the cost get covered over a couple quarters and then several quarters later you really start to see the return and see the leverage kind of accelerate from there?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. I mean, typically we end up covering a lot of the cost. What happens is when we have large installs and so, if you will, big new business, you end up with fairly significant install expense, some of which is depreciated, some of which is just taken to the P&L. And we've chosen to do that over the years, but that can get outsized on – when you do 13-week reporting, it can look and make that specific period look a little odd. That's the only reason we're talking about it. If it was just in the context of a whole year, it sort of gets smoothed out. But since we have quarterly reporting periods, we need to reference it so that people understand why we may have near-term margin impact. Once it's behind us and customers start consuming at going rates, you quickly end up smoothing any of that distortion out of your P&L, and so that certainly happens within a couple of quarters max, that you start getting at more going rate, if you will. But there's a little pain upfront. Now this is good pain. We like this. We'll take this all day long. A lot of this, this is in the Institutional segment, much of it's in our Specialty business in particular. But it's good news, but that's how this shows up and why.
Michael Joseph Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC:
All right. And then can you reference some delays in the rollout of SMARTPOWER, and you also mentioned that Europe was soft in Institutional. I'm just wondering are those two things related? Were we rolling out SMARTPOWER in both North America and Europe and that was supposed to happen over the past couple quarters and it was delayed?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
The SMARTPOWER delay was principally in the U.S. It was supposed to go early in 2017. It went very late in 2017. So it's sort of old news but I referenced it last quarter and talked about it as one of the impacts and also one of the reasons we were confident that we were going to see a pickup beginning in Q1, which we did see.
Michael Joseph Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC:
All right. But is SMARTPOWER being rolled out in Europe this year?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
It's being rolled out. It's rolled out in Europe and it's not rolled out in the U.S. too.
Michael Joseph Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yes.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Rosemarie Morbelli with Gabelli. Please proceed with your question.
Rosemarie Morbelli - Gabelli & Company:
Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. I was looking at pricing, Doug. I mean, as a general rule year-in and year-out your price increases by 1% to 2%. So we are now in an inflationary environment and raw material costs are still going up as we speak, and so I was expecting a higher increase in pricing. Am I missing something? Are you doing something different?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well I would say typically, Rosemarie, when we're in a, let's say, a non-inflationary or even a deflationary, we'll continue to seek price. We may round to 1% but we're not getting 1% typically in those environments exactly. I would say we're talking about now moving up. This isn't corporately close or even over 2%. It's not exactly the same in every business. You have different pressures so some are going to be above that, some below. The other is, as we've talked in the past, pricing is one of the tools that we use to offset this; the other is new technology. And as we rollout new platforms, the new platform is typically priced double-digit ahead of the old platform if you equate it to a price per pound, kilo, or liter basis. And so that's I would say historically our number one tool. So it's all of these working together. But when you have inflation like this you can't only rely on new technology; you have to make sure that you're driving just, as we call it, naked pricing as well, i.e. you're getting $50 on this stuff and now I need $51, $52.
Rosemarie Morbelli - Gabelli & Company:
Sure. And on the freight side, in addition to that probably 2% price increase, are you setting up surcharges which are not showing up in the pricing?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well we certainly are utilizing surcharges in certain businesses and geographies around freight because it's the fastest way to go start securing additional revenue to cover some of those costs. So we are doing that.
Rosemarie Morbelli - Gabelli & Company:
Okay. And then if I may on the Colloidal Technologies. Could you share with us the size of it? And have you separated it in order to dispose of it or in order to really pay a lot of attention to it and grow it profitably?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well it's about $85 million or was last year. No, I mean, this isn't a big strategic move. It's more a move of how do you manage what's in what segment based on accounting rules amongst other things. So it's where it belongs. I mean, it's been managed well. Last year it grew double digits, so I don't have any real issue with the focus that's in place on the business at all.
Rosemarie Morbelli - Gabelli & Company:
Okay. Thank you
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Andrew Wittmann with Robert W. Baird. Please proceed with your question.
Andrew John Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
Hi, guys. Just on the guidance raise of $0.05. Was there anything more than just the fact that you beat the midpoint by, like what, $0.03 or $0.04 here that contributed to the range? Is there anything fundamentally in your outlook that changed?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well we didn't. As I always say, we focus on our range, not consensus since it moves around all the time. So it wasn't really because we had a beat versus the average or the consensus number. I think it was really looking at our underlying business strength. We're obviously much further in the year than we were when we have to give the initial range and it was based on underlying strengths. A lot of the other factors sort of neutralize each other at this point in time, so it's really looking at sales trends, et cetera.
Andrew John Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. At this time, I will turn the floor back to Mr. Monahan for closing remarks.
Michael J. Monahan - Ecolab, Inc.:
Thanks. That wraps up our first quarter conference call. This conference call and the associated discussion slides will be available for replay on our website. Thank you for your time and participation. Our best wishes for the rest of the day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day.
Executives:
Mike Monahan - SVP, External Relations Doug Baker - Chairman and CEO Dan Schmechel - CFO
Analysts:
Gary Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets Chip Moore - Canaccord David Ridley-Lane - Bank of America/Merrill Lynch Manav Patnaik - Barclays John Roberts - UBS Laurence Alexander - Jefferies David Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Chris Parkinson - Credit Suisse Hamzah Mazari - Macquarie Group Scott Goldstein - Citigroup Mike Harrison - Seaport Global Securities Tim Mulrooney - William Blair Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research Andrew Wittmann - Robert W. Baird Shlomo Rosenbaum - Stifel Rosemarie Morbelli - Gabelli & Company Dan Dolev - Nomura
Operator:
Greetings and welcome to the Ecolab Fourth Quarter 2017 Earnings Release Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mike Monahan, Senior Vice President, External Relations. Please go ahead, Mr. Monahan.
Mike Monahan:
Thank you. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Ecolab’s fourth quarter conference call. With me today is Doug Baker, Ecolab’s Chairman and CEO; and Dan Schmechel, our CFO. A discussion of our results along with our earnings release and slides referencing the quarter’s results and our outlook are available on Ecolab’s website at ecolab.com/investor. Please take a moment to read the cautionary statements on these materials, stating that this teleconference, the discussion and the slides include estimates of future performance. These are forward-looking statements and actual results could differ materially from those projected. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are described under Item 1A, risk factors, of our most recent form 10-K and in our posted materials. We also refer you to the supplemental diluted earnings per share information in the release. Starting with a brief overview of the quarter, Ecolab’s sales and earnings continued to show sequential acceleration thorough the fourth quarter. Continued new business gains, product innovation and pricing drove fourth quarter acquisition adjusted fixed currency sales growth in all our business segments. The sales gains, along with our ongoing cost efficiency work, more than offset higher delivered product costs and investments in the business to drive the operating income gain. These, along with lower adjusted interest expense and our work to lower our tax rate, yielded the fourth quarter’s 11% adjusted earnings per share increase. Moving to some highlights from the quarter, and as discussed in our press release. On an adjusted basis, excluding special gains and charges and discrete tax items from both years, fourth quarter 2017 adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 11% to $1.39. Consolidated acquisition adjusted fixed currency sales rose for all of our business segments. Acquisition adjusted fixed currency sales growth was led by North America and Europe. Reported operating margins increased 60 basis points. Adjusted fixed currency operating margins decreased 70 basis points as price and volume increases were more than offset by rising delivered product costs in the quarter. Adjusted fixed currency operating income increased 3%. The operating income gain, along with lower adjusted interest expense and tax rate, yielded an 11% increase in fourth quarter 2017 adjusted diluted earnings per share. We continue to aggressively work to drive growth, winning new business through our innovative new products and sales and service expertise, as well as driving pricing and cost efficiencies to grow our top and bottom lines at improved rates. We also see continued good underlying sales volume and pricing across our business segments, and look for that to more than offset continued and significant delivered product cost headwinds and yield stronger operating income growth. We expect 2018 to be a strong year with earnings growth accelerating through the second half. We look for accelerated pricing to again exceed continuing and significant delivered product cost headwinds and along with our product innovation and cost efficiency work yield better operating margins and income growth. We expect 2018 adjusted dilutive earnings per share to rise 12% to 16% to the $5.25 to $5.45 range, with second half earnings growth outpacing the first half, reflecting the expected impact of the higher delivered product costs and systems investments which are expected to have a larger impact in the first half. We expect good first quarter fixed currency acquisition adjusted sales growth with lower operating margins as improved sales momentum and stronger pricing are more than offset by higher delivery product costs and systems investments. Adjusted diluted earnings per share are expected to be in the $0.85 to $0.93 range, up 6% to 16%. In summary, we saw improved momentum in our business as we moved through 2017 and expect to realize strong growth in 2018 that should deliver 12% to 16% adjusted diluted earnings per share growth. And now, here’s Doug Baker with some comments.
Doug Baker:
Thank you, Mike. I’ll just touch on some headlines or top level view, as I see it. So, clearly, the business is better and getting better. Organic sales improved. And the improvement, when you look at it, was widespread. Industrial is quite strong, energy was strong, pest was quite strong, and institutional got better as well. Also, pricing is catching up to rise. So, the strong results here, if you look across the board, you can see better improved pricing everywhere including energy, which finally moved into the plus column as we had forecast. So, we see more of the same as you look into the 2018. We expect a very good macroeconomic environment globally, but we also expect inflation to continue with raws peaking on a year-on-year basis in Q1 and really not easing until late 2018, if at all. So, while we see this, we also see good things happening on our side. We expect solid sales momentum to continue across the board. And we’re also continuing to push pricing, given the inflationary environment. We’ve had great new business productivity in the second half of 2017. So, there is good reason to believe momentum will continue. We have got major launches underway including our new Smartpower warewash platform, which is starting to help drive institutional improvements. We also continue to invest significantly in customer-facing technology and in infrastructure technology. So, if you add all this up, we are quite excited about what this means for 2018 results. We see double-digit EPS for the year and for each quarter. Now, if you look underneath, this is really driven by strong underlying business performance. We certainly have a number of good guys this year working in our favor, things like FX, for a change, tax. Hurricanes are really the planned absence thereof, we don’t forecast any hurricanes impacting a major area for us, like Houston or the Gulf again. But also have things on the other side of the ledger which are often overworked. We’ve got the Equipment Care divestiture. We have one-time SAP in a -- or North America install expense. This isn’t the expense of the system or the amortization of the system, this is really the extra cost it takes to put this in, in terms of inventory and moving things around, et cetera. It’s real but it’s a smart stuff to do because it’s one-time expense; it goes away once the system is up and running. And then, we have raws. Raws are going to be another headwind this year. We will offset them. We believe we’ll even realize margin accretion on gross margin basis before year-end. But, we know we’ve got to grow price to recover the incremental raws that are coming our way. If you net all these out, we’ve got very strong underlying double-digit performance as well. So, last point, we’ve been doing a lot a work on digital technology to help our customers, and what we’re learning is quite, quite exciting. So, we have huge advantages in the digital world and we’re making real progresses with our customers by leveraging these. So, I remain very optimistic about the year, but I am also really optimistic about our development program, and as a result, very optimistic about the years to come. So, that’s my opening. And from that, I’ll turn it back to Mike.
Mike Monahan:
Thanks, Doug. That concludes our formal remarks. Operator, would you please begin the question-and-answer period?
Operator:
Sure. Thank you. We’ll now be conducting a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Gary Bisbee with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
Gary Bisbee:
Hey, guys. Good afternoon. I guess, Doug, I’d love to drill down on your take on the investments. And number one, sort of help us quantify how much incremental investment is going into business this year? And how do we think about what the payback is from those digital strategies, what are the -- what really is it, and what’s the timing of achieving meaningful payback from these investments? Thanks.
Doug Baker:
Well, look, I think, there’s couple levels of investment. I mean, one, we mentioned we’re putting in new ERP system in North America. We’ve done this in a number of regions, in a number of countries. So, we have a lot of experience. But, it takes time and spending to get this thing done, unless you want to take unnecessary risk. The good news is, we’ve already launched, we’ve rolled out, we have a 100% of our financial backbone in North America on this platform. We closed the month. We also have about 40% in North American production and warehousing on this system, and it’s been running. And I would say the early returns are quite favorable. So, what we know is it’s going to be on the continuum of normal installations, which I always call really painful to just impossible. I think, it’s going to be on the better side of that continuum but these things are always difficult. What’s the payback? Well, look, we’re replacing a 40-year old system. So, some of this is ultimately you’ve got to go do this. This will enable significant upgrades in our visibility in the business, our ability to, what I would say, further leverage digital and all the rest of the stuff. It’s going to be hard to parse through exactly how that works. But, I would say, this one-time expense that we talk about, dissipates as we go out throughout the year, and will certainly not be repeated next year. That’s around an additional, probably about a nickel this year is what we anticipate in total. That type of expense that we don’t expect to see next year. Hopefully, we do better than that. But that’s yet to be seen. On the digital side, we’re investing another $0.04 to $0.05 this year versus last year. If you go back in total, we probably have about $0.20 investment in this year on a run rate basis. And it’s really been built over the last six years. I think, this has been very smart money for us. And it does not show up in our R&D line where I think it probably belongs because of the accounting rules. But, this is a significant increase in what I would call R&D-related expenditures. And what it’s really designed to do is enable us to take advantage of what I think are our super size advantages in a digital world. We’ve got access to unique data that nobody else can get at. So, we have over 2 million accounts; we’ve always talked over a 1 million; we never bothered to count them up. Globally, it’s 2.2 million. We’re collecting data today in over 90% of them but too few of them are connected to the cloud. We’ve customized the cloud; we’ve created a central group, we’re doing a number of things right now. So, we have unique data. And I would say, the ability to leverage it better than anybody else, because we’ve got knowhow and a field team to actually take action upon what we learn. So, this is already translating into success in the industrial area where we are further ahead because you have fewer accounts, quite candidly. And it’s easier to start assimilating and getting after this stuff. So, that’s what we are learning first. But, it’s already led to a number of big, big enterprise deals that I don’t think two years ago we could have fantasized we would be able to go compete for because of the way they wanted to look at this industry. But now, for real, they are taking a look at what we can do on energy and water. They’re counting it, not just counting price that we want to charge, and it’s leading to significant new wins. So, that’s stuff is translating into success right away. But, this is in spite of difficult years because of FX, principally in energy, we have continued to invest in this business. And as we come out of this, we’re damn happy we did because it’s going to be adding additional fuel to a fire that’s already started to take off.
Gary Bisbee:
And a quick follow-up just on energy margins, I think your prepared remarks that you posted, called out, Q1, you lap some of the costs, step down from a year-ago or bringing the cost back on. But, how do we think beyond Q1 about just incremental margins? If that revenue does ramp at a nice pace, should we see incremental margins start to rise and be, I don’t know, above corporate average or just any color? Thank you.
Doug Baker:
Yes. No, it’s going to ramp up according to our forecast significantly over the next four quarters. I think, you’ve seen a sequential improvement in 2017. That will continue and actually we think accelerate and it needs to. We talked that we gave up pricing during the down turn and we need to go and recapture it, one, because it was lost pricing; and two, because we’ve now got rekindled inflation of raw materials. So, I guess, the best way to think about it is, it will be improved in Q1 but pricing will still be below the raw increase year-on-year. Q2, we think, it’s going to be about net equal. So, it will be no longer, if you will, EPS dilutive, but it will be neutral. And we’ll start -- energy will be accretive. But, I’m just talking about the raw pricing ratio. And then, you are going to start seeing expansion in Q3 and Q4 where if we are fortunate, we’re going to start seeing margin accretion in the second half of this year. I think, that’s more likely than that but obviously it somewhat depends on what happens in the raw market.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Chip Moore with Canaccord.
Chip Moore:
Good to see some of the big headwinds over the past few years going the other way on FX and tax. Maybe on tax specifically, any impacts there on tax reform in terms of end customer demand beyond obviously the benefit to you guys?
Doug Baker:
I would say, too early to say we have any specifics about investments that are being made or other things from customers. Typically, they’re responding demand driven signals, not cash in the bank signals, and I would expect that to go. But, we are seeing fairly strong economy globally and in the U.S. So, I would expect that we will see some expansion in certain areas that we will work to go capitalize on as we move forward. So, it’s hard to say that it’s bad news. We like our customers to have cash because when they have concepts to grow, they will do it. So, there is no bad news here.
Chip Moore:
Maybe just one follow-on for energy, following up on that first question. I think you called out maybe a small pull forward this quarter. Just talk about that size and impact in Q1.
Doug Baker:
Yes. I would say, Q4, 12% organic, we don’t believe that’s the run rate of that business. So, often, I pull them up; I would pull this one down. I think it’s high single digits is more realistic run rate that we experienced in Q4 for energy, which isn’t bad. And it’s about what we expect this year, mid to upper single digits. And so, it was not really a pull forward as much as it was a bunch of one-time things that come along routinely in the fourth quarter, but they came along and we fully capitalized on them this year. So, it’s not a bunch of stolen business from first quarter.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of David Ridley-Lane with Bank of America/Merrill Lynch.
David Ridley-Lane:
It sounds that you are already getting some traction in the institutional business from the refocusing in on the core product lines. Wondering if you’ve started to see any tailwind from the U.S. economy with wage growth picking up and also higher after-tax income. I think, the National Restaurant Association’s customer traffic survey had a tick up in December, for example.
Doug Baker:
Yes. It would be tough for us to go ferret that out this quickly and this early. So, I will say, it’s a trend that we like and certainly can’t really hurt. We are seeing, I would say, an uptick in that business broadly. Some of it we know is driven by execution. It’s a little early for us to have any public data on what’s happening in the industry in terms of units, traffic and the like. But, we’ve read the same thing. I would say customers feel better. Retail certainly had a very good holiday season, we all know that. That typically correlates with restaurant traffic and restaurant spend as well. So, I would expect, as we sit here, our expectation for institutional, and we really focus on U.S. first because it’s the biggest business, makes the most money, and we can’t afford to have that thing stayed dormant very long. It’s moving, it improved 4 versus 3. We expect the same or maybe even a better move in Q1 versus Q4 and sort of sequential improvement throughout the year. And our goal, and I think it’s quite achievable, to leave the year at a 5% run rate on the U.S. business, which is going to have a significant improvement overall in that public segment.
David Ridley-Lane:
And then, just want to ask, it’s been a couple of months since the Diversey and GE Water transactions closed. Have you been able to capitalize on some of that competitive disruption?
Doug Baker:
Well, you never know exactly what the root is. We certainly are doing our normal welcome party to the industry. And so, we’re working to be quite aggressive. It’s what you would expect. So, we are actively pursuing new business, have programs in place in our water and our energy and in our institutional and F&B businesses. They’re working together quite constructively, particularly in the F&B space where there are huge synergies between our water and F&B businesses. That is having success. We would expect to continue to have success.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Manav Patnaik with Barclays. Please proceed with your questions.
Manav Patnaik:
I just wanted to follow up on the digital investments. I was just curious, all this data that you talked about and the only place to get it, like can you monetize that in the future, or is this more just it increases your value proposition to the customer?
Doug Baker:
I guess, the ultimate answer is, we don’t know. At minimum, it’s going to make us or position us to be even more helpful and valuable to customers. Whether it gets monetized in a unique income stream or it’s monetized as an overall part of the programs that we sell, I don’t exactly know. I think, what will happen here, it’s happened in our other learning episodes is, we start out and we are starting out and we go out, doing what we know we can do and making a difference where we know we can make a difference. As a consequence to that, you learn many other things in other areas in maybe other ways to make a difference for customers, if they’re willing to pay for. It’s certainly happened for us in the past. And I would expect this journey will have some of those off ramps as well. We’ll capitalize on them. But at minimum, it’s going to enable us to do pretty significant things for customers, just the visibility that we can provide and the understanding about their spending patterns and their efficiency patterns within either a restaurant or food and beverage plant, a hotel, a hospital. We now know best-in-class let’s say water usage and given in the steel mill industry globally or in the beverage and brew industries. And these aren’t small things because if we can really say, hey, you can get down to a 1 liter in here at [indiscernible] day per liter produced, that’s a dramatic improvement in our efficiency and start mapping ways to do it helps them be better stewards and frankly make more money. So, I mean there’s a lot of ways to make this create value for customers. Our history, when we create value, we get paid for it. And we know this is going to enhance our ability to do that.
Manav Patnaik:
And then, maybe just on Europe, could you just update us on sort of the margin trajectory there and maybe what the trajectory for Europe generally in your view should be in the next couple of years?
Doug Baker:
Yes. If we go back to sort of the Europe that we had identified when we launched the Renaissance program back in ‘11, this year margin was really flat and we target a 100 basis points a year. We started off in a big hole Q1 and climbed out of the hole to reach basically flat for the year. We’re still up dramatically over the period of time since we announced this first quarter of 2011. And I believe we will be back on track in this year as we move forward. So, there is still firm belief. We identified 1,000 points; we started out it at 3 margin, so getting to 13, I still believe that’s quite achievable. We’re upper single digits now. We’ve covered most of that ground but we have ground left to carry, and then will start arguing from there.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of John Roberts with UBS.
John Roberts:
Doug, just to follow on there. I think, you said European institutional sales were down in the quarter in fixed currencies, what was going on there?
Doug Baker:
There was some business that we ended up losing because we didn’t want to compete for it at the price it was going to be done at. We’ve been through this in Europe several times. I would say, of the chains that I would have put in that category, say four years ago, two out of three that we lost and are already back in our fold simply because I don’t think you can execute at those pricing levels. So, this is something we’ve dealt with for decades. We have competitors who I don’t understand their P&L or their view of it but they are quite aggressive at times on price. And we do the math, it looks like a cash loss position to us. We are unwilling to do business at a cash loss business. We won’t drop price to protect; we’ve done that. We will do other things, but there is a point where we just blink and say, forget it. And now that is coming out of the base fairly quickly because it’s been in it for a while. We expect to be neutral to maybe slightly positive in Q1 and for the year next year.
John Roberts:
Do you think that’s a result of the competitive dynamics from your competitor being sold?
Doug Baker:
Well, I mean to be honest, it’s been a pattern under five ownerships and it’s been consistent. So, we always say, well, new owner perhaps will be a new pricing philosophy. So far, that’s been a unfulfilled wish. So, I don’t know what’s going to translate here. I’ve always said, we’ve dealt with 30 and 40 off for, I’ve been at the Company 28 years. It was happening before I got here, it’s still happening. So, my expectation is it will likely continue to happen. During that period of time, we’ve grown share, and at the expense of every competitor including those who are quite price aggressive. So, I would just say just put in the camp of everybody has got to deal with their own stuff. That’s some of the stuff we’ve got to go deal with, we’ve done it, we will handle it in the future.
John Roberts:
J&J put its sterilization business up for sale. Setting valuation aside, I assume that would fit really well with your hospital product strategy?
Doug Baker:
This is -- why don’t I say that I’m not going to make any comment on a specific property that may or may not be for sale. But certainly, the central sterile area has been one of our focus areas and an area that we’ve talked about strategically in the past, and it’s important going forward.
Operator:
Our next question is coming from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies.
Laurence Alexander:
So, two quick questions. First, is the digitalization strategy changing or could it change your targets for R&D, and your rule of thumb for how fast your sales force would grow each year to tie into the volume growth you target? And secondly, can you give a bit of an update in terms of demand trends that you’re seeing in Asia and your thoughts around investing to grow the sales force there?
Doug Baker:
Yes. So, Laurence, I guess, on the digital side, our priorities go in this order. Number one, we’re going develop technology that improves and enhances our ability to drive value at our customer level. That’s focus one. Focus two is developing technology makes it easier to deal with, i.e., you want to go track a shipment, you want to find out a price, you want to get a critical information that you might need on specific products. We can do a lot better job making it easier for customers access and by the way for our field team too. And then, third, and third is, we’ll use it to go drive efficiency. And it’s simply just trying to get the focus first. You can get projects under any of these buckets, we have loads of them. But, what do we want to do first, we want to go use this to drive value with customers. That’s our number one priority. As a consequence of that, yes, it changes some things. But, what we’ll end up doing first is really augmenting our field with technology, and enabling them to get a lot -- get more done with less effort. And that’s the goal, because then they can spend more time upselling, helping, training and doing the things that really only humans can do. And so, we want to supplant and use technology where we can. How is that going to translate? I said, ultimately, yes, it’s almost hard to imagine that that doesn’t enable you to increase sales team capacity, if you do it right. And we would certainly leverage that if that proved to be true. But that’s not the objective of our initial thrust as we go out there. It really is enhance value, create value, drive the top-line and from there, learn how to do the rest of the stuff. And, the next thing I’ll do is the Asia demand, yes, I would say, there’s a number of hot points in Asia that we continue to feed and we’ll continue to feed as we grow. Our China business in institutional, in F&B, and in whitewater has been very steadily growing at either double digits or high single digits. It will continue to do that we believe as we go forward .It’s now starting to eclipse, some of the struggles we had in the heavier industries as a consequence of new regulations and other things. China grew in the fourth quarter, we expect it to grow next year both top and bottom line as we go through, and these faster growth parts become a bigger part of the portfolio there. So, we’re feeding that we’re feeding Southeast Asia, we’re feeding Indonesia and other markets that are growing disproportionately. And we’ll continue to do that as we move forward. Demand there, I would say in a number of areas is quite good and we want to make sure we’re up to supplying and meeting it.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of David Begleiter at Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.
David Begleiter:
Thank you. Doug, on healthcare, it’s now been about a year since you acquired Anios. Can you give us an update on how that is progressing? And overall in healthcare in 2018, how are you looking at growth for that business?
Doug Baker:
Yes. I mean, Anios is -- look, you have to like it a lot to buy it and pay what we paid. I mean, it was clearly within market metrics, but market’s frothy. It turned out to be a great acquisition as we thought it was. So, sitting here a year later, I think the team, the Anios team, our integration team, the healthcare team at large has just done a fantastic job bringing that business into the fold. They’ve done it in a way that has not disrupted the business. We’ve fed the business; we’re working to enable the business. They had a very clear way of expanding globally. We’ve made it a lot easier because they don’t have to build infrastructure, it already exists. And so, what we were going to do frankly with a Ecolab line and Anios can do, we’re now doing via an Anios line and expanding and it’s going quite well. What do we expect? I mean, if you look at Anios organic growth and our other organic growth, you’ve got to kind of blend them together. It’s growing at a mid single digit combined growth rate right now. My hope is that we’re able to tick that up through the year, as we go forward. I think, there’s good plans and reason to believe that. But the business has been performing well. Anios is ahead of plan, top and bottom versus our first year expectations, and we always have high expectations. So, we’re quite pleased with the business. The more you learn about it and the more you interact, frankly better you feel cause it’s really a terrific business.
David Begleiter:
And Doug, just on institutional, the acceleration to that 5% run rate at year-end, what one or two things are going to drive that acceleration from today for the rest of the year?
Doug Baker:
Well, some is the base stops being a problem. I mean, I want to be straight. But the other is just better execution. I think, the team went back and did a good job of looking at their plans in the last really two years. And we had a lot going on in that business that I think started pulling people’s eye off the ball. We talked about it in prior calls, in terms of field technology rollout, kind of a major one. And every time we do these, we learn. And also the integration of Swisher was very intensive in terms of how deep it went in the organization. So, those things are behind us. I think, they tried to do too many things last year on one level and not enough big things, it’s their summation of learning. I think their plans this year are much crisper, much more focused, the stuff that can make a difference. We -- you only get several yeses a year in a customer, you want to make those yeses count a lot, both for them and for us. And I think we’re just back to some of those basics and the team’s plan reflects that. And you can already start seeing some of the benefits as we start tracking those metrics. So, I’m calling what’s -- I know it’s going to improve. Does it hit 5? I bet, yes, but it’s certainly not going to be hanging around the 3 level.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Chris Parkinson with Credit Suisse.
Chris Parkinson:
Great. Thank you. F&B performance appears to have taken a turn for the better on the back of new business wins and enterprise selling, after as a little problematic I guess 12 to 18 months ago. Can you just quickly comment on your expectations for the balance of ‘18 and even into ‘19? Does the current growth rate have the runway? And if so, what subdivisions and geographies are the key drivers? Thank you.
Doug Baker:
Yes. I would say, the F&B business, I think that team’s done a terrific job. ?And this marriage between F&B and water technologies which both the water white team and F&B have done a amazing job partnering, collaborating and developing outsized advantage, it’s driving both businesses forward, has been huge. And it’s very difficult for competition to even come close to matching it, because nobody else has these two businesses. And our expectation, I think you are going to see more of the same from F&B. Every quarter is not going to be identical to the fourth quarter. But, I think, call it plus-minus 6, as we go through the year, quarter-after-quarter. The light business is also doing well. Where do you see the growth? I mean, the good news is it’s in some of the bigger markets, right? North America, we would expect to have at least average growth versus the 6 I talked about; China a little above average; AP above average; Latin America above average. So that’s sort of where we see the growth. But, we would expect to grow in every region.
Chris Parkinson:
And just a quick follow-up, quickly on pest elimination, you’ve seen some solid organic growth and also made a few smaller acquisitions. Can you quickly reiterate or give additional commentary around your long-term strategy with enterprise selling, any geographic opportunities as well as the larger M&A landscape?
Doug Baker:
Yes. The pest business, I mean, I would say that team continues to do a great job executing and delivering value for customers. We are getting paid for it. Their growth is upper single-digit, 8% in Q4, which is good. If you recall maybe four or five years ago we were at the very low single-digits. And we’re getting called out regularly what the heck is going in pest, and I think the team has done a terrific job driving organic sales growth. We did make a recent acquisition. It improves our ability to serve the F&B segment. So, that will enable us to drive even more value into that segment when you start coupling it with the water and F&B technology that I discussed before. It’s a very attractive segment for the pest business as well, because it drives real value there and they’re big units. So, they are efficient, if you will, for delivering pest services. So, all that’s positive. Our strategy going forward, we’ve always said we really like this business, run well. It’s a very high return business. The only way to ruin a high return business is to go make a lot of overpriced acquisitions. And so, that’s the one mistake we won’t make. We love to make acquisitions in this area. You just got to be disciplined that you don’t end up overpaying because it’s sort of a sin you can’t recover from. There are huge expansion opportunities. We are doing some of the Greenfield in the absence of acquisition targets. There are some things that we think might come onto the market in future and we will take a deep look at those. And if we can buy them at a price that makes sense, we would love to do it.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Hamzah Mazari with Macquarie Group.
Hamzah Mazari:
The first question is just if you could just give us an update, how big is your corporate client base? And specifically you had talked about circling the customer a few investor days ago. Just curious, how many of these customers are subscribing to the entire product suite? Is there still room or opportunity there?
Doug Baker:
Look, we have all these different businesses and it’s all a different number for every business. We don’t typically have like a single enterprise number for what corporate accounts represent. Many of our businesses, it’s the majority because it’s the nature of the industry. F&B has obviously been historically dominated by large players, think soft drinks, think beer increasingly in other areas, think QSR, fast food, et cetera. And so, it comprises a significant portion of our sales. If you look at it in total, you could easily triple the sales to that segment. If you sold them everything, we have to offer where we have to offer it. So, whenever, I say that, people say, well, that must mean you’ve done a terrible job in the past circling the customer. And I’d say, I don’t think that’s a fair read of that stat. What it really implies is two things. I think, we have continued to drive successfully circle the customer strategies. If you go back to the commentary I had earlier in terms of how we’re approaching the F&B business with the water technologies, F&B and even pest, and that’s been quite successful. But, we also simultaneously have been adding to the total price by expanding our market opportunity. I think, it’s one of the smart things that we do as a company, we’ve done historically is we expand before we need to, so we don’t run into walls, like growth walls, run out of growth. So, we have significant opportunity in front of us. If you told me all we could do is sell the existing customers, I would tell you we continue to grow like we are. I would also tell you, it’s a strategic mistake, because it takes pressure off our competition. So, I think you need to do both, if you’re going to be a successful company and that’s how we view it.
Hamzah Mazari:
Just a follow-up question on capital allocation. One, you didn’t buy any stock back in Q4. How are you thinking about repurchases going forward? And then, along the same lines on capital allocation, how important is a chemical sale process for you guys around M&A? Swisher didn’t really have one, but deals in the did. So, just any thoughts on capital allocation, specifically buybacks and M&A?
Doug Baker:
Well, yes, I would say, look, we look at acquisitions to do a variety of things for us and they have in the past and will in the future. We’ll bring in technology that we think will be useful, leverage across the platform, we buy sometimes competitors and markets that we don’t have a large footprint to give us a head start. And so, yes, I mean, we like companies that have chemical platforms; I would say, Swisher actually did. Swisher -- the business really we bought was a similar warewash business. We sold the restroom business and got out of that, because that wasn’t what was attractive to us as we went forward. In terms of share buyback, we didn’t make any purchases in Q4, because we made the purchases early in the year. It wasn’t anything more. We tend to have a budget or expected spend level in share repurchase, we had reached it, and we reached it earlier in the year. We count on our share price appreciating throughout the year. So, it’s typically cheaper early as we go. We also did a lot of M&A in the fourth quarter, which was a -- in our minds, our preferred use of cash as we go. So, I mean, it’s a variety of things.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of P.J. Juvekar with Citigroup.
Scott Goldstein:
Hi. This is Scott on for P.J. Thanks for taking my question. So, maybe just looking at your outlook for raw material inflation in first half. What are your expectations for caustic soda specifically and are there any other raw materials that you’re keeping your eye on?
Doug Baker:
I’d say, based on today’s price it’ll go up, caustic. Look, we go raw-by-raw-by-raw, and ours is a big basket of products that we buy. I mean, it’s over 10,000 specific products. So, it’s tough to keep track of everyone individually, although there are few that we pull out and watch. So, here is our expectation. I would say, the peak we believe is in Q1. It’s a significant headwind in Q1, stepped up from Q4. And so, while originally in the third quarter we thought that there would be a spike in Q4 and it would abate; it did not. So, in fact, it’s gotten stronger. You guys all see this, it’s plenty of public and data around these facts. We believe that it starts to moderate but not go down, moderate in terms of increase moving into Q2 and Q3. And then potentially, you might see a decrease in Q4. Let me say, we aren’t betting our year on it, because right now, every time we forecast moderation in price, it seems like we get the opposite effect. So, we’re starting to hope for higher prices, maybe it will have the unintended consequence, but that’s how we see it. So, it’s real, we’re pricing for it, we’re out there. The environment is inflationary on a number of fronts. Inflation, historically, we complain about it but it’s been more a frame than a foe. And we’ve got to do what we’ve got to go do. And I would say, the businesses are getting the price that we need to continue to keep pace and ultimately completely offset the inflation we foresee.
Scott Goldstein:
If I could just get a follow-up then. So, going back to institutional, when you are looking at improvement by year-end in that business, can you point to any market segment, like full service restaurants, lodging or long-term care where you think you can execute better or any of those market segments that you’re more excited about than the others?
Doug Baker:
Yes. I would say, our lodging business has been strong, remains strong, and we are forecasting continues to be so. I think where we see because of the warewash launch and the focus, we would expect that our full service restaurant business improve. And that’s what we’ll see because it’s a larger segment where we will see probably the best pick up. Long-term care represents a great opportunity. They are obviously everywhere you turn, new long-term facilities going up. That’s another area that will get increased focus, but I don’t think it’s going to be a prime driver in 2018. That’s more in out years.
Operator:
Next question comes from the line of Mike Harrison with Seaport Global Securities.
Mike Harrison:
Going back to response about the change in the raw material inflation rate, you guys updated your Q1 guidance, you increased it by a penny. Just trying to kind of parse out if you are seeing higher raws, what changed in the underlying view on Q1 in the past few weeks that was a positive offset to the raw material inflation?
Doug Baker:
Well, I mean, the simple answer on Q1 is where halfway through. So, you start having more confidence that your forecast for any number of things are accurate, simply because you’ve just taken the risk of time and it’s been reduced. Catalysts are our SAP implementation; we’re now whatever 10 days into it. So, you know a lot in the first week and you learn a lot, honestly a lot in the first day i.e. does it work. And so, those questions have been answered. We’re quite confident, it would, but now, we don’t have to be confident in the future. We can be confident in what’s already transpired. On raw materials, you get to a point where it just says less time to have a huge impact on the quarter as you go through, both internationally because a different convention and in the United States, even though it impacts faster, you’re just running out of time, and you start seeing your pricing take hold. So we had a clear forecast, we had clear trends, but you still have to get people to accept the price and put it in and ship them at that price. And so, all those things led to, I would say, greater degree of confidence that we would be moving up the range, and led us to move the forecast and signal that risk is kind of moving away. And the good things that we thought would transpire are transpiring as we go through here. But just to give you a flavor, I mean, raws, in this quarter like a 14% headwind. So, we’re going to do we believe double digit, at the mid-point, but it’s not like in this benign environment. People want to talk about tax, all right. Well, I’ll give up a whole year of tax in one quarter on raws. So, it sort of misses the broader picture. Now, we’re more than covering that with pricing also year-on-year. So, we’re not crying in our soup over this, but we are -- there’s real work, the teams have done it, we’ve done in the past. So, there’s real I think reason to believe, but it’s just to give you the type of level that we’re talking about.
Mike Harrison:
And then, on the energy business, I think, you’ve been reluctant in the past to talk about the operating leverage that you’re expecting in 2018 or OI growth relative to sales growth in the segment. So, with a view toward mid to upper single digit top line growth in 2018 and now that you’ve left some of the headwinds around compensation and the other factors that you talked about, what sort of margin improvements or OI growth is factored into the energy business in your guidance for 2018?
Doug Baker:
Yes. We would expect to see OI margin leverage improved for the year, probably starting mid-year, Q2 maybe earliest, but certainly in the second half. I would think in like, probably this year we cover maybe 100 basis points of margin type expectation.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Tim Mulrooney with William Blair.
Tim Mulrooney:
Good afternoon. The water segment has inflected into stronger growth territory lately, I mean the year I think at 5%, which is really above what we’ve seen over the last several years. So, I guess, my question is how sustainable is that as we look into 2018 and beyond? I’m curious how you think about this business in terms of a long-term growth trajectory?
Doug Baker:
Yes. Our expectation for the water business, particularly the core light and heavy water would be to continue to accelerate that business more in line with the 6% to 8% expectation and so, move up this year from 5% to 6% as we go forward. Paper, we do not see and nor have we in the 5% to 6% range, but we see paper is a consistent, steady, low single digit grower that could continue through technology and a number of great initiatives, continue to enhance its margin as it enhances its ability to help customers make more money. And so, that’s where the paper business fits. The big sea change that will occur for water is really the China business. And as we come out from under some of the challenges that the paper -- or the water business, particularly the heavy business had in China, I’ll think you’ll see that flow through and start driving faster growth globally.
Tim Mulrooney:
And my follow-up is back on the institutional division. You kind of broke down by each segment what you expect, long-term care, there’s a long-term opportunity there, lodging continues to be strong you said. So, you expect to see the improvement on the full service restaurant side, which was good to hear. I’m just curious what gives you confidence to be able to say that for 2018. Is it more of a -- well, you’ve been making these investments since the back half of 2017, so it’s more of an internal improvement or the external environment is improving, any additional color there would be helpful. Thanks, Doug.
Doug Baker:
I would say two things. I mean, as we look at this market, there’s a lot of conversation about unit loss et cetera. But, the unit loss really isn’t in the sweet spot of our market. If you look at full service restaurant chains and/or QSR chains, both had unit growth last year, albeit quite modest, but not down. The decline in units has really been in the independent segments of both QSR and full service restaurants. And I would say, this is bolstered by our own internal data when we look at loss figures, i.e. how much sales did we lose year-on-year? And this is one of the metrics that we track closely for decades. We’re at really record low levels of lost business. And our losses include bankruptcies and closures. And so, I don’t know if an Outback closes a unit that would show up in our lost column, even though we had nothing to do with it, quote unquote. And so, to look at the levels we are in losses, I would say, also say the ground we’re on is much firmer I think than people think. We look at it as ground upon which we can get more purchase, I mean, in terms of forward momentum. And that’s why we have confidence too. We’ve already started instituting these plans so we’re starting to see them bear fruit. So, it’s not -- I mean that’s why we think Q4 was better than Q3. It’s the specific sales events and sales efforts and why we’re confident we’ve already got right some data you might imagine in Q1, sitting here in the middle of the quarter. So it’s all those factors that lead us to believe we’ll be able to do better there. It’s a big business. It doesn’t go down fast and it doesn’t go up fast. We are running in the U.S. at 6%, not very long ago, you sort of saw a steady degradation of sales but went down to really probably realistically 2 to 3% at its low point which I would have called Q3 and started moving out. But it doesn’t, it’s not going to snap back, it’s going to take some time to rebuild its momentum but the team’s on it.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Dmitry Silversteyn with Longbow Research.
Dmitry Silversteyn:
Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. I’d like to follow up on your comments about China and specifically how the impact of the government’s tightening environmental regulation is playing in your industry? In other words, are you seeing more benefits from some of your competitors perhaps being pushed out of the market as a result of this? Or is this a little bit of headwind as some of the manufacturing facilities where you may be supplying that heavy industry water treatment products that are slowing you down? So, can you talk about sort of what’s going on in China with their manufacturing footprint reduction across the industries and how it’s impacting Ecolab?
Doug Baker:
I call this one of these classic things. Overall, this is a great thing. I think, it’s a great thing for the world. I think, it’s ultimately a great thing and a smart thing for China. And it will be a good thing for Ecolab. But, there’s like adjustment period to get through, which is a period we are in. So, I think, you cited a lot of, Dmitry, it’s what we are seeing. So, we have some customers that are being shut down who can’t make the transition to the new regulations, loss business. We have other customers who can make it, who are buying better technology and paying more money, so that’s a plus. And then we also see what I would say is some supply disruption globally in the chemical industry, which has led to some, at least justification, whether it’s real or not for price increases and we’re seeing that in raw materials. Because a lot of what I would call substandard chemical producing plants have been shut down as well. Now, that stuff ends and the good news flows for the long-term, i.e., standards are going to be raised, people are going to need to do more and meet to new regulatory environment. China, when they decide to do something, gets quite serious about it, and has been quite successful in driving new standards. So, first, we see a lot in the power industry there. There is real pressure. They need to go meet these regulatory requirements in very short order. And so, we are having very important conversations there and we want to find ways that we can go and set the players to move up the scale. That will likely translate into higher spend with us. So that’s the good part. So, I don’t mind the short-term pain, because I think long-term, this is exactly the type of move we hope for in China ultimately.
Dmitry Silversteyn:
And then, just a follow-up on your comments around cleaning and sanitizing, you came out of 2017 at very low single digit growth outside of foreign exchange. And it sounds like -- and I just want to clarify that it sounds like you are not going to look for much to change maybe in the first half of the year but with all the efforts that you made and with a little firmer foot that you are referring to, we should see some pickup in the back half of the year and then look for that maybe low to mid single digit growth in 2019 and beyond. Is that the right way to think about cleaning and sanitizing over the near to mid-term?
Doug Baker:
Dmitry, what segment were you talking about?
Dmitry Silversteyn:
The institutional, the cleaning and sanitizing portion of institutional, sort of your largest part of...
Doug Baker:
Yes. No, I am not that bearish. I would say, -- here is that what I would say. We would not define last year as not a good year for institutional. It grew, it didn’t shrink. We don’t think we lost share or anything else but we didn’t grow the way we except to. We started to see improvement. And we believe we bottomed in Q3, if you want us to try to call it, and started seeing improvement in Q4 versus Q3. And what we forecast is we would expect to see the similar, maybe even a little better improvement Q1 versus Q4. So, no, we don’t believe this is like hanging out at his low-level. But, what I’m trying to also suggest is it’s a big business, it doesn’t snap back quickly. What you’ll see is sort of continued modest improvement sequentially quarter-by-quarter to the point where we believe we’ll leave the year in that area at about a 5% run rate. Hopefully, we can get there sooner, but that’s the most realistic forecast that we’ve got right now.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Andrew Wittmann with Robert W. Baird.
Andrew Wittmann:
I have couple of questions here, probably for Dan actually. Dan, I was looking at the guidance that you gave for the first quarter and for the year. It all makes sense, but the one line item here is interest expense, it’s up sequentially in first quarter. You guys did some refinancing that lowered the overall interest expense. So, just trying to understand why the interest expense guidance appears a little bit high, and if there’s anything in there that we should be aware of, maybe CapEx or something that’s running higher than historical levels, things like that?
Dan Schmechel:
Yes. I really think that it is just primarily rate driven, okay. So, we saw this pretty significant step down in interest expense between 2016 and 2017, despite the fact that our debt balances were up, that’s largely the impact, okay, of increasing our exposure to euro borrowing. Part of that was related to the Anios financing and part of that was just increasing our exposure through the swap market. But year-on-year, although our debt balance remains about the same, what you’re seeing incrementally is really is rate driven. So, we’re not in an entirely fixed position in terms of our debt portfolio.
Andrew Wittmann:
And then, maybe just as a follow-up, Dan, you’ve got an accounting change on revenue recognition here in 2018; in some of your prepared comments you referred to it a little bit. I was just wondering if you want to give us a little bit more detail as what we should expect from that -- how it’s going to appear between gross margins and SG&A margins for us as analysts. And maybe, is there any benefit to the actual revenue dollars that will be reported? We’ve seen other companies that have actually had benefit to the revenue from the new recognition standard?
Dan Schmechel:
So, maybe just for sort of general benefit, explaining kind of what’s driving this revenue recognition thing, so we’re now required to split from both a sales and a cost of sales reporting, those portions of our revenues that are tied directly to products and then the portion that we think -- or what we estimate to be backed primarily by service. And so, just I’ll kind of take your questions in sequence, if I could. So, from a P&L and geography perspective, the first thing that you’ll note is a reduction in our gross margin of about 5 percentage points, which will be offset by reduction in our SG&A ratio of about 5 percentage points. And so, no real -- no impact at the operating income margin line. What’s driving that reduction in gross margin is really a restatement of expense from SG&A, so think about where the cost of the service currently resides, a lot of it is currently in SG&A and that will be pumped up to the cost of sales. And so that’s going to really drive this 5 percentage point gross margin reduction, but sort of net to operating income from revenue recognition at operating income it will be equal. We will actually be -- so this is a little bit ahead of the game. We’ll be showing the full reconciliation and restatement in April ahead of our Q1 earnings, but we actually expect to see a very small reduction to reported sales as a result of revenue recognition. Because if you think about -- we invoice at the product level, if you think about typical ship and bill arrangements where shipments laid in the period, we haven’t actually performed the service yet, and so there is going to be a drag that we estimate and it will be restated for both years of about a penny to 2017 into 2018. The other big accounting change that’s out there, just maybe to round up the conversation is on pension. And here -- so there is -- we are required now to split the results of our pension into two pieces. So, the expense, which is, I would think about that as the annual expense or people accruing pension benefit, will continue to be a component of operating expense. But, the result of the earnings on the pension portfolio, we’re now going to go below operating income, the net of that will be a reduction of about 50 basis points to our reported operating income ratio, again, all restated.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Shlomo Rosenbaum with Stifel.
Shlomo Rosenbaum:
Just a question also for Dan. Dan, it looks like the guidance is assuming at the midpoint somewhere around close to 100 basis points of margin expansion. Could you talk about some of the components that are going to drive that especially since there are so many tough comparisons in the first half of the year with raw materials?
Dan Schmechel:
Well, I think, as Dough pretty clearly indicated, we feel good about our pricing program and our efforts to continue to drive pricing to cover the higher impact of raw materials. There is as always growth in the business, will continue to drive some degree of SG&A leverage as well as other leverage across our supply chain cost structure, at least part of which is fixed. There is always cost savings in there too. We’ve been quite aggressive in 2017 on cost savings programs, which will drive an annualization next year. But the biggest driver expect to be the continued benefits of pricing versus raw materials through the year, plus volume leverage I would say.
Shlomo Rosenbaum:
And then, just as a follow-up on that, based on the acquisitions to-date, how much acquisition revenue do you expect to have in 2018, and if you can kind of net that on the Equipment Care divestiture just so we get a way to understand it net-net debt?
Dan Schmechel:
Relative to the Equipment Care piece, it’s almost immaterial. If you think about Anios being the big deal; that was done so early in 2017 that the annualization is going to be minimal and the rest of them are not going to be big revenue drivers.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Rosemarie Morbelli with Gabelli & Company.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
Going back to the raw materials, can you give us a feel for what the hit was in 2017 on a per share basis and what are your expectations for 2018 of the timing, magnitude?
Doug Baker:
Two seconds, we’re adding numbers.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
Sure. So, while you are adding numbers, I was wondering, in terms of pest, you mentioned your interest in getting additional acquisitions as long as they are in line with what you are willing to pay and makes sense, would, after the -- I’m not so sure how to phrase it, after the fiasco with ChemLaw; I just really didn’t find the right word; after the fiasco with ChemLaw, would you consider that going into the consumer household type of pest elimination? And I am thinking Terminix, to make it clear?
Doug Baker:
Yes. So, I will answer. I think, what we’ve said is our focus has been and continues to be on the away from home markets. It’s I think, the decision that was made honestly before I got to the Company to focus in these areas, has proved to be a very wise one. And so, while we’re quite successful here, we don’t believe that necessarily translates to success in residential or consumer in terms of -- so even in the pest area, given part our circle, the customer strategy, building on our knowhow, we prefer staying where we are. So that would be how I would think about our focus going forward. Back to your earlier question, last year in 2017, raws were, call it plus-minus $0.37, in this year, it’s probably another $0.30. But, the vast majority are like almost half of that $0.30 year-on-year hits in Q1.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
Okay. And so, if I look at 2017, by the fourth quarter, you had recovered at least on a run rate basis, the full $0.37, and then, [indiscernible] in addition to?
Doug Baker:
No, I mean, we really started seeing white, I mean, it was like $100,000, I’m being a little facetious, between pricing and raw material increase in Q3 for the first time. It was underwater and dilutive on an EPS basis in the first half of last year, neutral, really I’m just talking not margin, I’m talking EPS, neutral in Q3, and then slightly accretive in Q4. Q1, we’re going to be back to just barely accretive on an EPS basis, is our expectation because we think pricing will be just a nose above raw material on an absolute dollar basis, but we start seeing increasing daylight as we go throughout the year. And that’s not because we see raws falling but it’s because pricing continues to build and raws are running against the base last year where it increased really in late first quarter and more in the second and third quarters.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
So, if I understand properly, while you will have that impact of $0.30 from raws, it’s not going to affect your EPS by $0.30 because you will be offsetting it with price increases, am I thinking about it…
Doug Baker:
Yes, most definitely, it’s yes. So, Rosemarie, I mean, our -- this is all incorporated in our forecasts which is for double-digit EPS. So, yes, we’re more than offsetting it with pricing as we go throughout the year. It’s just -- we’ve gone through these periods. It goes benign for a few years in and then you have typically a two-year, fairly steep run up in raw material prices, started in late 2004 and 2005, and then we had another one in 2007, 2008 period and then 2011 and 2012 et cetera. So, we’re in just another one of these periods. We’ve handled them. But, they do have near-term impact on the business. And we’re just trying to get all the transparency. I think, the team is doing a good job, we’ll cover it. And I think we’ll come out of 2018 in a strong position.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
Okay, great. And if I may ask one last question, you gave us Q1 as a range of $0.85 to $0.93 but let’s say it’s up 6% to 16%. But in your remarks Doug, you mentioned double digit growth for every quarter on the EPS basis. So, what would need to happen and what would you be unhappy to see in order to not reach that 10% growth in the first quarter?
Doug Baker:
Well, I mean at this point, I mean, the midpoint implies double digit. And so, midpoint is not loss on either. And so, what could happen that could knock you off? We could have a problem with our SAP system. I don’t think it would be a problem that would be an ongoing problem but could be a problem that costs you money in the quarter. You could have some huge roll up that we don’t -- run up that we don’t forecast on raw materials, it’d have to happen pretty quick. It could happen. And we could end up not hitting our sales forecast. So, I mean, there of course is risk here and then there’s upside as a consequence, which is why we have a range as we go through here. But, it’s any number of those things. That’s life in the business world. So, we’re giving our best forecast. And my expectation is, we’re going to do everything we can to go deliver at least at the midpoint in the range. We always like to be at the upper side but we give you a range and that’s what I’d focus on.
Operator:
Thank you. Our final question today is coming from the line of Dan Dolev with Nomura.
Dan Dolev:
Hey. Thank you for taking my question. Just so I understand, given the discussion about the accounting, the 47 to 48% gross margin guidance for the year that is apples to apples with fiscal ‘17, correct?
Dan Schmechel:
Yes. That’s correct. As I indicated earlier. We’ll do the full restatement in April ahead of the release of the quarter.
Dan Dolev:
Got it. And then, sort of related to that, if I go back to kind of your legacy business in 2005, when raws were very high, you had about a 100 basis points gross margin drag and the snap back was about 30. If I go to Nalco it was even worse and the snap back took longer. I mean, you’re kind of implying 70 basis points of gross margin improvement for the year. Why is it different this time, especially given the more muted inflation versus kind of the last decade? Thank you.
Doug Baker:
I don’t know, I mean, this is a two-year raw material cycle. So, I would just say, I’m not sure if it’s really materially different. I think, the water business and energy business, I mean, are in a different cycle than they were at that time, but they’re both much better equipped now to go deal with this pricing environment than they were in ‘04, ‘05. ‘04, ‘05 was the first time really raws had meaningfully moved for almost any of us on this piece of chemical business in like 20 years. And all of us had to go figure out how we’re going to develop the new pricing capabilities and all the rest. And I would say, it was one of the things that we did quite successfully. I think, if you looked at Nalco’s history, they were much better in the ‘08 period and captured a lot of that run up and then even better in the ‘11 and ‘12 period, and that was a period at which we were looking right to buy. And so, we did a lot of studying of their capability. So, I don’t know that it’s materially different. You just got a two-year pretty powerful cycle. We are on it. We are going to catch up. I don’t think there is -- I am quite confident we will end up recouping margin, not just dollar with our pricing.
Dan Dolev:
On the Equipment Care, would you be able to quantify the margin uptick from the divesture?
Doug Baker:
Yes. I don’t -- it’s not, I mean, Equipment Care was like 3% of that total business, and it’s the one that at zero margin. So, immaterial. It’s not going to be -- it won’t hit the rounding.
Operator:
Thank you. I would like to turn the floor back to Mr. Monahan for closing remarks.
Mike Monahan:
Thank you. That wraps up our fourth quarter conference call. Before we end, I want to mention that we will hold our tour of the booth at the NRA Show on May 21, Chicago. This conference call and the associated discussion and slides will be available for replay on our website. So, thank you very much for your time and participation, and best wishes for the rest of the day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This concludes today’s teleconference. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.
Executives:
Michael J. Monahan - Ecolab, Inc. Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc. Daniel J. Schmechel - Ecolab, Inc.
Analysts:
Gary Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC John Quealy - Canaccord Genuity, Inc. David E. Ridley-Lane - Bank of America/Merrill Lynch Manav Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc. John Roberts - UBS Securities LLC Scott Goldstein - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Daniel Rizzo - Jefferies LLC David I. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Christopher S. Parkinson - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC Tim M. Mulrooney - William Blair & Co. LLC Vincent Stephen Andrews - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Hamzah Mazari - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc. Michael Joseph Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC Scott Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC Justin P. Hauke - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. Rosemarie Jeanne Morbelli - Gabelli & Company Dan Dolev - Instinet LLC Robert Koort - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
Operator:
Greetings and welcome to the Ecolab third quarter 2017 earnings release conference call. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mike Monahan, Senior Vice President of External Relations. Thank you, Mr. Monahan, you may now begin.
Michael J. Monahan - Ecolab, Inc.:
Thank you. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Ecolab's third quarter conference call. With me today is Doug Baker, Ecolab's Chairman and CEO; and Dan Schmechel, our CFO. A discussion of our results along with our earnings release and the slides referencing the quarter's results and our outlook are available on Ecolab's website at ecolab.com/investor. Please take a moment to read the cautionary statements on these materials, stating that this teleconference, the discussion and the slides include estimates of future performance. These are forward-looking statements and actual results could differ materially from those projected. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are described in the section of our most recent Form 10-K under item 1A, risk factors, and in our posted materials. We also refer you to the supplemental diluted earnings per share information in the release. Starting with a brief overview of the quarter, Ecolab's underlying sales and profit fundamentals continued to improve through the third quarter and we are building momentum as we finish 2017. Continued pricing and new business gains drove third quarter acquisition-adjusted fixed currency sales growth in all our business segments despite the unfavorable impact of hurricanes in North America. The sales gains along with product innovation and ongoing cost efficiency work more than offset higher delivered product costs. These along with our work to lower interest expense and our tax rate as well as fewer shares outstanding yielded the third quarter 7% adjusted earnings per share increase. Moving to some highlights from the quarter, and as discussed in our press release, on an adjusted basis, excluding special gains and charges and discrete tax item from both years, third quarter 2017 adjusted diluted earnings per share were $1.37. Hurricane related impacts on sales and costs were estimated to be a negative $0.04 per share in the third quarter, representing a 3 percentage point reduction in our EPS growth. Consolidated acquisition-adjusted fixed currency sales rose for all of our business segments. Europe and Asia Pacific led the regional growth. Absent the impact of the hurricanes, acquisition-adjusted fixed currency operating margin declined an estimated 20 basis points as price and volume increases were more than offset by the margin impact of higher delivered product costs in the quarter. Absent the impact of the hurricanes, acquisition-adjusted fixed currency operating income is estimated to have increased 3%. The operating income gain along with lower interest expense, a lower tax rate, and fewer shares outstanding yielded a 7% increase in third quarter 2017 adjusted diluted earnings per share. We continue to aggressively work to drive our growth, winning new business through our innovative new products and sales and service expertise, as well is driving pricing and cost efficiencies to grow our top and bottom lines at improved rates. We also continue to see underlying sales volume and pricing improve across most of our business segments and look for that to more than offset continued delivered product cost headwinds and yield stronger operating income growth. We expect fourth quarter fixed currency sales to rise in the 5% to 6% range with net income increasing more than 10% as improved sales momentum and stronger pricing drive results and more than offset higher delivered product costs. Adjusted diluted earnings per share are expected to be in the $1.35 to $1.45 range, up 8% to 16%. Hurricane related impacts are estimated to be a negative $0.04 per share in the fourth quarter and the loss of Equipment Care income will reduce earnings per share by an estimated $0.01 per share. Together, these represent an estimated 4 percentage point headwind to fourth quarter EPS growth. Reflecting the impact of the hurricanes and higher delivered product costs, we've tightened our full-year adjusted diluted earnings per share forecast to the $4.65 to $4.75 per share range in 2017, rising 6% to 9%. We expect the impact of the hurricanes on full-year sales and costs will be approximately a negative $0.08 per share, and the Equipment Care sale to reduce income by $0.01 per share. We do not expect 2017 hurricanes to have a meaningful impact on 2018 results. In summary, we see momentum improving in our business. We expect to deliver strong adjusted diluted EPS growth in 2017 and we look for our investments and actions to drive better growth ahead. And now here's Doug Baker with some comments.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Thank you, Mike. As I look at Q3, I would highlight three key takeaways. Number one, our business fundamentals are improving. Our new business, innovation and pricing discipline are showing up in the numbers. Pricing is improving in all segments as we covered the absolute raw material increase in Q3 and expect to exceed in Q4 which will begin our margin rebuild. And our volume is also forecast to increase. It is regaining its natural path in Q4 as well. Institutional was the exception, point number two. If you cut through the clutter, Institutional is growing at 3% globally and 3% to 4% in North America, which is better than it looks but still way under potential and our expectations. In short, the U.S. environment in particular requires more offense. Unit growth in same-store sales in full and casual dining are weak. To increase offensive capability, we are adding additional sales positions, launching new platforms in warewashing and laundry to drive new unit sales, and refocusing the field on large category penetration opportunities to help drive same-store sales. We anticipate these steps, which are already starting to lead to improvements, will improve Q4 versus Q3 modestly but drive continued improvement throughout 2018. Finally, the third takeaway is that overall results have been on a steady improvement path all year. The fundamentals are winning, and we expect to leave the year with very strong momentum. We have sales momentum. We forecast in Q4 organic sales to be 5%, fixed currency sales to be 5% to 6%, reported sales to be 6% to 7%. We have margin momentum. Pricing will continue to accelerate in all sectors including energy which we forecast to have positive pricing in Q4 too. We have earnings momentum. We forecast double-digit net income growth in Q4 as well as double-digit EPS with a 12% midpoint. Be 13% if you exclude the divestiture of our Equipment Care business. So clearly Q4 is a notable improvement, but the most important news is the momentum driving Q4 results positions us well to deliver Ecolab-like results in 2018. So with that, I will hand it back to Mike.
Michael J. Monahan - Ecolab, Inc.:
Thanks, Doug. That concludes our formal remarks. Operator, would you please begin the question-and-answer period?
Operator:
Our first question is from the line of Gary Bisbee with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
Gary Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Hey, guys. Good afternoon. Doug, I guess the first question, I appreciate the positive commentary on improvement ex the hurricanes this quarter and more to show up next quarter, but I guess I continue to struggle. It's been like 18 months now that you've been talking about improving bookings trends and it's just been stubbornly slow to work its way into revenue. What's going on there? And I guess can you say anything other than what you've said so far to help our confidence that this is actually going to materialize going forward?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yes, I don't know that I'm going to go rehash all the stuff that we went through in 2015-2016. I think though in 2017, it's been pretty clear that we've had improvement on a going basis on fixed currency sales. I mean, they were 2% in Q1, 5% in Q2, 5% in Q3, and they're 5% to 6% forecast in Q4. And if you look at rounding, I mean, we're moving up in the right direction. It's a bigger business. This business always, it's very sticky once you sell it. It does not ramp up quickly in almost any environment, never has. And so we are starting to see traction take hold. The call-out I made on Institutional was it's a place honestly where we haven't seen the same traction we would have expected and I would call that mostly the result of a tougher than anticipated environment, which isn't an excuse, because we have tons of share opportunity in the U.S. as well, which is what we really have to get after and get on. So short of Institutional, I would say you're seeing clearly signs of improving business. In Institutional, we've been a little bit on a hold, but we think we've got the traction moving there too.
Gary Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
And I guess just to follow up on that point, some of the things like the new warewashing and laundry platforms you talked about in September at the Investor Day, but this increase in head count and some of the other things you mentioned about the focus on penetration, seems to be new. So did something change in the last couple of months that made you acknowledge, hey, this isn't going the way we want? Or is this just not something you discussed there but that had already been underway? Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
No, I would say part of it was we were talking about it there but had not decided to go do some of these things. And I mean, the fact is the institutional market in U.S. isn't giving as it used to. You used to naturally acquire new unit expansion as a result of having the chain business. They're not adding units. We used to have better same-store sales as a result of traffic. We don't have traffic. And so you got to acknowledge a market you are in, not the market you hope for. And so as a consequence, we know we got to up the offense, and we're doing it. Now we've been here before. I would say if you go back to the early 2000s, there's probably a two-year period – unfortunately it was when I took over – where we were stagnant as well and growing at about the 1% and 2% in U.S. institutional. And so we upped our offense. We did a number of moves. I would say the things that we're launching now are digitally enabled and will allow us to capture a lot of the information that we're already securing but get it to the cloud which will allow us to do more for customers, which I think ultimately leads to more business. Those are the new platforms we're launching. So I just think this is a little bit of a relook at how this market's actually performing and what do we need to do to succeed in the given market.
Gary Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
OK, thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of John Quealy with Canaccord. Please proceed with your questions.
John Quealy - Canaccord Genuity, Inc.:
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yes, I would say from pricing, I mean, in total, we are north of 1% in Q3. Expect that to expand by basis points going into Q4 but the expansion's across the board. As I mentioned, Energy will be positive on pricing in Q4. It was nominally under last year in Q3, so we kind of crossed the threshold there as well, which is the last segment to cross it. In terms of raw materials, raw materials started moving against us last year fairly early, really at the very end of Q4, if you will, a year ago and into first quarter. So as the year goes on, the base gets easier.
John Quealy - Canaccord Genuity, Inc.:
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yes, I mean, the Paper business, frankly, is doing well everywhere but in China. And China, we, I would say, are starting to bottom out in Paper, but we've not performed as we should have in China, and that's really clouding the results in all other regions. China is not going to be a long story because we're getting to a point where it can't be. But we've retooled, we're putting a lot of emphasis on technical competency, we're launching new technology which had been delayed there and doing a number of other steps. I recall China more upside at this point than downside. So I think you're going see Paper stabilize and start moving up or accelerating sales. I mean, it's growing, just not growing very quickly.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of David Ridley-Lane with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please proceed with your question.
David E. Ridley-Lane - Bank of America/Merrill Lynch:
Sure. As the Energy business recovers in 2018, what's the likely range of incremental margins that you're planning for? I know this year has had some compensation rebuild, the raw material pressures, etc. Just wondering the underlying margin potential of that business?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yes, David, I mean, we're not going to get into real specific details on 2018 in the call. I would expect, this year we said it was going to be plus/minus on OI and low to mid single-digit growth, and that's really what we're seeing for the year and forecasting for Energy. Next year, I would expect growth to be nominally better and it would be on the plus side on income, so it will be accretive. And we aren't really going into detail of how much. We'll do that in the call at the first quarter when we typically give our detailed 2018 forecast.
David E. Ridley-Lane - Bank of America/Merrill Lynch:
Okay. And then just a quick numbers question. On the Equipment Care divestiture, what is the estimated after-tax proceeds? And then the margins of the Pest business on a stand-alone basis, for modeling going forward?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Neither of those we've disclosed nor plan to. I think as we move forward,-- Pest margin was obviously certainly north of the Equipment margin. So this is not dilutive to margins.
David E. Ridley-Lane - Bank of America/Merrill Lynch:
Understood. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Manav Patnaik with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.
Manav Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Yes. Thank you. Good afternoon, gentlemen. You touched on the pricing in another question, but I was wondering looking ahead, like we saw this quarter, I guess, where your pricing offset your increases in the raws. Should we continue to expect that going into 2018, or is there anything else you would call out, whether it lapses or anything as we think about the cadence into the year?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yes, we have historically talked about our pricing philosophy to be try to recapture absolute increase in year one and recapture margin in year two. Obviously, you got to recapture roughly double the increase in raw material absolute dollars in pricing to recapture margin. And we tend to do this over a period of time, call it six to eight quarters. And I think that's exactly what you're seeing. So we're saying we crossed the threshold. Even though we had a little spike in raw materials in Q3, we still were able to cover absolute dollar. I mean, like almost exactly via what we saw from pricing in absolute dollars and paid out in raw material increases. Q4, as I mentioned, we will have daylight where pricing exceeds raw material increase at that point in time. We were obviously below in Q1 and Q2. So what I would expect to see is that delta, the positive delta, continue to widen as we go on because, one, we've got to kind of pay back what we invested in the first half; and two, that's how we recover margin. So I think that'd be a steady increase in that delta over the next three, four quarters.
Manav Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Got it. And then just on tax reform, I understand you're dealing with 140 characters or less, but I think in the past you talked about 28% maybe being the breakeven tax rate for you guys on corporate tax reform. Was just wondering if you had any updated views there?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, I mean, the simple answer right now they seem to be very focused on 20%. And 20% almost assuming its territorial and the like, which is what they've been contemplating, would be fine for us. Would not be a negative.
Manav Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Okay. Thank you, guys.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of John Roberts with UBS. Please proceed with your question.
John Roberts - UBS Securities LLC:
Thanks. Doug, on Equipment Care divestment, was the inability to wrap Equipment Care into the circle, the customer strategy, the primary reason for moving on with that effort?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
I guess. Look, the Equipment Care was a good business. We didn't always run it that way, but obviously we drove substantial improvement over the last five to six years. I would really say at the heart of it when we looked at how we're going to drive Food Safety, how did we want to invest in digital, where do we really want to put our money, and where was the upside for us? Equipment Care as we looked at our portfolio increasingly became the odd man out, and if we're not going to be fully on the gas in a business, then we probably be best not to own that business. So we thought to see if we could find an owner who we thought would be better for the business long-term, and I think we found one. So that's the best explanation. I mean, we had sold it in circle bundles and other things successfully, but it's a bit of a different model, which I think the new owner understands. Leverage is tougher in that business than it is in our other businesses for us, and we want to focus on businesses that are more like our core model than not.
John Roberts - UBS Securities LLC:
And then could you talk about the Specialty Paper chemical unit you acquired in the quarter, and I think there's a more commodity part of Paper that's water chemicals. Is that core long-term? And now that you've bought something else in Paper, does it make it more core long-term and more commodity part?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yes. I wouldn't overread or underread. I mean it was to us a smart acquisition. It put us in, it's really technology that's in the growing part of that industry. It's not a huge acquisition. I think sales were $40 million the prior – in the base year. So it just, we thought, positioned us better to do what we're doing in Paper. We're going to invest in that business and continue to invest in it. We've substantially improved the business since we've been operating it, and we plan to continue to do just that and this particular acquisition increased our positioning in the fastest-growing piece of that market.
John Roberts - UBS Securities LLC:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of P.J. Juvekar with Citi. Please proceed with your question.
Scott Goldstein - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Hi. This is Scott Goldstein on for P.J. So maybe going back to the growth initiatives. Are you looking to add to your sales force to target any particular market segment or is it more broad-based? That's the first question.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yes. No, we're, I would say in most businesses – the exception right now, Energy, we don't have significant adds in this year – but in almost all the other businesses, we've added, albeit not huge numbers. In particular we've been adding corporate account resources in three of our major business because as we looked at and analyzed opportunities, we felt we had too few people to get after new opportunities because the existing business base was commanding most of their time.
Scott Goldstein - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Okay. And follow-up is, can you maybe give more details around the penetration optimization program that you're using to stimulate same-store sales?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yes. I mean, what happens in Institutional is, I would say there's rhythms over time or rhythms. And we've introduced a number of categories to extend our line, which is a time-tested and honored way that we grow our business. But over a period of time, it can also lead to a little lack of focus on the largest categories. And so what we want to make sure we're doing is focusing everybody's attention on the most important categories, in this case in a restaurant. And that we make sure we drive penetration in those areas. Our penetration hasn't declined, but it hasn't been increasing as we would expect it to over a period, so we need to reemphasize it. And I would say importantly in Institutional, our challenge is really accelerating growth. We do not have a defensive challenge. Our account losses are at historic lows so it's not that we're losing business, it's not that we're losing penetration, it's just that we aren't having the same offensive impact that's required to grow that business, in part because the market's not giving what it used to, so we're going to have to do it ourselves.
Scott Goldstein - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.
Daniel Rizzo - Jefferies LLC:
Hi. This is Dan Rizzo on for Laurence. You mentioned technology as part of the most recent acquisition. I was just wondering if will technology be or improving technology, will that be a growing part of your focus when you're thinking about doing future M&A?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yes, I would say it's historically been one of the focus areas. So when we buy a business or a company, we're looking to create some advantage for the company, meaning we just don't want to get bigger, we want to get better at the same time. And so that either comes from adding talent, adding a fast-growing portfolio to your current portfolio, and/or adding technology. In the case of the recent Paper acquisition, we're adding technology which we believe strengthens our portfolio and does it most importantly in the fastest growth part of that industry.
Daniel Rizzo - Jefferies LLC:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your questions.
David I. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Thank you. Doug, in 2018, you mentioned Ecolab-like results. Does that mean double digits? Does it mean 15%? I know it's early for 2018 guidance, but what are your thoughts there?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
I would say it certainly implied double-digit EPS growth. And I'm not trying to hedge on any number at this point in time. I just don't want to get in front of our normal cadence. And we will give explicit guidance coming up in February, but clearly work to imply that the momentum you see in the fourth quarter, we expect to carry forward through 2018.
David I. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Understand. Doug, just on Institutional U.S., if the growth isn't there, how do you assess the impact of spending too much money for some limited growth as opposed to spending money in other areas of the company here?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, one, I guess I'll deal with it when we get there, but I don't believe we're going to get there. So I mean, we're quite confident there's plenty of growth opportunity in the U.S. food service business and we've done a lot of work trying to understand exactly what's happening, where is it. And that's why we can say with certainty where it's not. So this isn't a defend problem. This is just making up for what the market used to give us and no longer is giving us. If it comes back, hallelujah. But we're not planning on it. So I'm quite confident that the investments we're making, which aren't huge in any absolute term, are smart investments and will pay back handily. If we prove wrong, we are a company chasing $120 billion-plus market and we're $14 billion. So it's not like we're short on growth opportunities and we'll get after the most appropriate ones, but I'm quite confident U.S. food service happens to be in there.
David I. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Christopher Parkinson with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.
Christopher S. Parkinson - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Thanks, guys. Real quick, in Food & Beverage, you guys are fairly comfortable. You're outgrowing the market by a few hundred basis points. Given this area was a focus in 2017, can you just comment on where you'd expect account wins, pricing share gains, you know all the kind even out through the balance of year and any just even preliminary comment on 2018? And then also, what percent of this would you attribute to enterprise selling? Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yes, I would say the F&B business has had a very good year because it's done a very good job setting itself up for 2018. And so you mentioned enterprise selling. They have latched up with our Water business very successfully. Together, they bring superior value to our customers. They're driving it. It's driving new business in both Water and F&B. F&B was, what, 5% in the third and going to accelerate, we believe, in the fourth. And we believe that's going to be running at a sustainable rate in 2018. So they've done a great job driving new business, leveraging new technology to do it. And so all the emphasis that we put in that business is paying off.
Christopher S. Parkinson - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Great. And just a quick follow-up on just within heavy water. You've exited some business in China, and obviously there's a little bit of some hurricane effects. Can you just walk through some of the key end markets, geographies, et cetera, just very broadly? And anything that you see at present which gives you the confidence for more of a material rebound in 2018 and 2019? Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yes. Our light business continues to do very well; it's growing at mid-single digits. Pops up into upper single digits. And that business, which includes the F&B market that we just talked about, we think is growing at a very sustained and strong rate. So we feel good about that. Heavy has been impacted most notably by what's been going on in China. That business is now starting to bottom and show signs of improvement. So I think what you'll see is global heavy numbers improve as well because in other regions, heavy's done quite well. If you look at our core Water, we expect it to end of the year growing at 4-plus percent, and we would expect that to accelerate throughout 2018 as we move into the year. What's not included in core Water is mining, in particular, would be the largest business unit. And mining has recovered as I think we've talked about, positive in the third and expects to be positive going forward.
Christopher S. Parkinson - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Tim Mulrooney with William Blair. Please proceed with your questions.
Tim M. Mulrooney - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Good morning, guys. My first question's on the Healthcare business. This slowdown to the organic rate of – I think organic growth was 1%. Can you just talk about what's happening there is quite different than what we saw in the first half of the year?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yes. Without trying to – I would say the way to think about the Healthcare business, it's still growing in the 4% to 5% range. So we bought Anios and we moved our international expansion efforts largely to Anios. So Anios organic sales have moved up dramatically. I mean the organic sales were 9% in Q3. Now we don't have that as our terminal value. But one of the big drivers was international growth in Anios, which was 15%. And really, what we've done is taken a lot of our international expansion work and we're running out of Anios versus out of the other business or the legacy business. And so you sort of have to look at both of those. When we strip out acquisitions, we strip out all of it. So it's taking away some of the growth efforts which have just been shifted from one brand to another, which probably isn't the best way to portray the business and what's happening there. So the two big growth emphasis are continue to drive HIC programs. That's going to be lumpy, a lot like we see in KAY and others, but we're having success there and continue to expect to have success. We're expanding in international principally through Anios. When you put those together, you end up in the mid 4s. Life Sciences, which historically was in Healthcare up until this year, is now growing at high single digits as well. So all in all, that I think's doing fine with significant opportunity to accelerate.
Tim M. Mulrooney - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Okay. I think that makes sense, Doug. So should I expect, then after you lap the anniversary of the acquisition of Anios, we would expect to see the organic growth rate accelerate back to historical rates?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yes. I think we expect it to be better in Q4, even the reported number we give you, versus Q3. But yes, we would expect this to be, as we talked, mid-single digits heading up to upper single digits. That remains our ambition. We think it's quite realistic, and you'll see those things put together in early next year.
Tim M. Mulrooney - William Blair & Co. LLC:
That makes sense. And then my second question is on the Institutional division. When do you lap the exit of the low-margin business? Is that in the fourth quarter or is that sometime in 2018? Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yes. Its impact has diminished considerably second half versus first half. I think there's a little bit of an overlap in Q4, but it's very small and it'll be all gone by 2018.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.
Vincent Stephen Andrews - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Thanks. Just a couple of quick ones. In Global Industrial, there was also a reference to lower shipments to distributors. How material is that? And is that ongoing or is it just sort of a onetime issue?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yes, no, that was Institutional, the distributor reference, not Industrial.
Vincent Stephen Andrews - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. Yes. Well, either way, the balance of the question was just is it a onetime issue or how material was it.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yes. In North America, Institutional was about 200 basis points, and globally it was about 150 basis points.
Vincent Stephen Andrews - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
And will it just be housed in this quarter? Or is that something that you have to face until you lap it?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
No. You know what, these are always hard to predict. What I would say traditionally, we've seen this movie before, and it happens episodically. There's a disconnect. So we get all the out data, meaning the distributors that sell for us in the United States provide us where every case goes by end user. So we have very specifics about what consumption is. And, occasionally, you get into a mismatch between ins and outs, if you will, in a distributor. And that's really what happened in the third quarter, that distributor purchases were well below distributor outs, so inventories, obviously, shrunk in distributors. Traditionally, we find these coming back. It's hard to predict if it's going to be absolutely the next quarter. Our forecast assumes that there's no rebuild of the inventories in fourth quarter. So we'll see what happens as it goes. Traditionally, they find their way back. It's sort of like water seeking its level.
Vincent Stephen Andrews - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. Very helpful. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Hamzah Mazari with Macquarie. Please go ahead with your questions.
Hamzah Mazari - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Good afternoon. Doug, you had mentioned the market not giving what it used to in Institutional. Just curious if you're seeing any structural changes in that market with either consumer behavior shifting from casual dining to home delivery, or what have you. Just any sense of whether there's any structural change, whereby you have to invest more to seek out more share gain and the market is just going through some sort of a change that the investor base maybe cannot have visibility to just yet.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yes. I would say the change we're seeing in this market right now is – there's clearly – and this has happened many times, there is a move by the consumer. I mean, QSRs are doing relatively well. Fast casual is even under some pressure, because QSR is probably the fastest-growing segment right now. But you get into casual dining or even full-service restaurants, they're just a little temporarily out of vogue. So you're not seeing the same kind of traffic and/or increase in those restaurants that you saw historically. Now, this isn't the first episode and we're going through many of the same things that we've gone through when you see this trade. For us, as a company, we're obviously strongly – we have strong presence in the fast casual, in the casual, the QSR in all segments, so there's just trades up and down. We do not see a big structural change in terms of home delivery of food. We might see that down the road. I would say, I was just in China, where this is a significant burgeoning business, and they don't have any of the headaches of legacy technology, so they're moving quite quickly. And I met with one of the leaders there, where, frankly, we've got a very interesting food safety proposal and program that we're using with them, because by God, when you deliver food, food safety matters, too. So I just look at it. Right now, this is just a classic trade up and down among the category. And we know we've got to get after it, so we have major exposure. They're not adding units, because they don't see the growth. And you don't see same-store sales growth, because you don't have the traffic. And that's what we've got to overcome, and we've done it in the past, and I'm pretty confident we'll do it right now.
Hamzah Mazari - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Great. And just a follow-up question, with the new accounting rules, you mentioned disclosing product versus service components of your revenue. And I'm just curious, is that something you're comfortable with from a competitive standpoint? It definitely creates more online transparency on pricing around the product category. So just curious, do you intend to disclose that at a segment level or is that just very high-level and you're comfortable there?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yes, I mean, we're going to meet all the requirements. I mean, FASB's been busy and so now we are too. And I would say we're going to do this and meet the spirit and letter of what's been required, but we're really going to do it at a consolidated level. Importantly, it's not going to have any impact on OI. It's not have any impact on EPS. We'll have us have additional charts and show the business in a little different light. We don't believe it's going to create any undue competitive challenges and/or challenges anywhere else. It does create work. I hope it creates some helpfulness for the financial community.
Hamzah Mazari - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Right. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Mike Harrison was Seaport Global. Please proceed with your question.
Michael Joseph Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC:
Hi. Good afternoon. Happy Halloween. Doug, you talked a little bit about the Institutional business and we talked about penetration and the desire to get some of the same-store sales moving a little bit better. But wondering what penetration looks like on the new accounts. When you get new accounts, do they kind of just dip their toe in the water and maybe take up just a very small number of products to start, such that it weighs on your overall penetration rate? Or is the uptake actually pretty good as you look and compare it to existing Institutional accounts?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, I mean, undoubtedly, we tend to grow penetration within existing accounts over time. I would say we usually go in with at least enough products to have a comprehensive kitchen hygiene program, which is really what we're representing and presenting. But from there, we build that out. Importantly, over time, or you don't capture it all, there's significant upside in all of our categories. I mean, if we look at warewash anchor accounts and look at pot and pan penetration, or floor care, or degreaser, or pre-soak, sanitizer – I can go on – to hand soap, on, on, and on. There is dramatic room in every one of those categories to increase penetration, which makes a lot of money and, just as importantly, we think helps the restaurant save money and helps our field team make more money. So I mean, it's sort of a win on all levels. We need to go and we are reemphasizing, refocusing, and getting after it and it will bear fruit.
Michael Joseph Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC:
And then on the Energy business, I noticed that you mentioned in there that you had some weaker performance in the production side of that business. Was wondering if you could talk about how much of that weakness in production might've been related to the hurricanes. And then can you walk around the globe and the key production regions and talk about the trends that you're seeing on the production side of your business?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yes, we think it's more a temporary story. So production, I mean, we're talking about 2%. And production in the world is up 1%. So it's not a huge mismatch and it's a quarter deal, not a ongoing long-term issue. So I don't think that's going to be an ongoing story in that business as we move forward.
Michael Joseph Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC:
And was it hurricane related, Doug?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
No, the production side was very modestly impacted by a few platforms, but no, that really wasn't the issue.
Michael Joseph Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC:
All right. Thanks very much.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Scott Schneeberger with Oppenheimer. Please proceed with your question.
Scott Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc.:
Yes, thanks. Good afternoon. Staying on energy, Doug, with oil prices, certainly they've moved up recently. How are you thinking about them looking into next year and how that would influence segment results? Thanks.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yes, I think what we believe to be true and what we're planning is that the energy prices are going to be roughly around the $50 range even through 2018. We do believe that they will move up but we don't think the real sustained move is probably until later into 2019, 2020. So our focus and the numbers I spoke about earlier when I was asked about energy is really predicated on, call it, plus, minus $50, $55 a barrel.
Scott Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc.:
Great, thanks for that. And then going to something more of an upstart, Life Sciences. Could you just talk about the customer conversations you're having there? How pharma and personal care are looking as an industry? And then just, you speak in the release today to the lumpiness of new contract wins. Just progress you're seeing with a little more detail. Thanks.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yes. I mean, Life Sciences is several billion-dollar opportunity for us, and the market makeup is ideal. So you've got huge multinationals and a very fragmented – so a consolidated customer set and a very fragmented competitive set, which works well to our advantage, i.e., that we can do world-class technology consistently around the globe. This market has big needs, and we think we're the perfect people to fulfill them. So our expertise in F&B and Healthcare sort of coupled together with the CIP knowhow we have from F&B and the sterile environment experience that we have from Healthcare are the two areas that these customers are most in need of, coupled with water management and Legionella capabilities. So as we go out, I think there's been an understanding of the benefits we can bring. In many cases, you have had plant-level decision-making. This is what we went through in F&B years ago. It's what we went through with KAY when we entered the food retail market. Traditionally, they were local level decisions that we worked hard to centralize and make the company understand the benefits of centralizing in terms of consistency, in terms of cost-saving capability and ultimately throughput improvement. And all those things exist. So our conversation's been quite positive, but we're talking about changes in big organizations. It takes some time. And what we're seeing is exactly what we would expect to see. If I take you back to food retail, which is not new news anymore – it's 20-some years old – we had no business in the top 10. And today we sell 9 out of the top 10 globally. I mean we've built a great position in that business but it wasn't done overnight. It takes a few years, and we expect to see the same type of results in Life Sciences.
Scott Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc.:
Thanks.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Dmitry Silversteyn with Longbow Research. Please proceed with your questions.
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC:
Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to follow up with a couple of follow-ups, if I may. First of all, you talked about your Europe and Asia Pacific sort of as the two regions that were leading your growth in the quarter. Kind of get the APAC portion of it, but what was it about Europe that made that region outperform I would imagine North America as well as Latin America in the quarter? And are those dynamics sustainable into the fourth quarter, into 2018?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yes. I mean, Europe, in the second half, is going to grow 4% to 5% in total, which is pretty good. I think we called out early this year that Europe was probably the surprise in terms of economic activity. A lot of the Europe benefit was really driven by Industrial. Water in particular was upper-single digits and has done a very good job driving new business through an increased focus on both the heavy and the light side.
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC:
So it sounds like it's both the market growth as well as better execution? Was one more impactful than the other?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, in Europe, you have to put it more on execution than overall market growth. I mean I would just say the market is better in Europe than we expected, but we had low expectations. But the Water and the Industrial business there certainly isn't growing at high single digits, so we know we're capturing share.
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC:
Got it. And then just to follow up on the paper chemicals discussion you had where you kind of called out China as a problem region. Is that for you and your Paper business specifically and the products that you have going into that geography? Or was that a more general comment on the Chinese paper producing and pulp and paper market?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
No, unfortunately, I would say that's us. So I don't have any insight that the paper business in China is a problem overall. I would say my guess is it's not. This is our own execution, and I'd say the mistakes reside here. So we're dealing with them and getting after it, but no, it's not an overall comment on that market.
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC:
Okay. So the good news is that it's going to be fixed quickly. Okay. Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
You bet.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Justin Hauke with Robert W. Baird. Please proceed with your questions.
Justin P. Hauke - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
Great. Thank you. All right, so just one more quick one on Institutional. Not to beat a dead horse, but is there any difference in what you're seeing between the big established chains that I kind of think of as more legacy Ecolab versus the street business that you've put more emphasis on in the last couple of years? Is there any difference in the trends that one growing faster than the other or are they both doing about the same?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yes, no, I don't think this is a independent versus chain deal. This is much more a segment deal that's going on. So the segments that are doing well, i.e. QSR, it's the chains that are in particular doing well. So, no, I don't think it's a mix in between independent and street at all.
Justin P. Hauke - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
Okay. And then we hadn't really talked about capital allocation on this call. The buyback activity slowed a little bit. Is it still your expectation to do about $700 million this year and where are you on the M&A pipeline? Any comments there?
Daniel J. Schmechel - Ecolab, Inc.:
Sure. So let me start with the share repurchase. So you've noted in the release of the materials, we've done north of $550 million year-to-date. My expectation is that we'll finish the year south of $700 million which is the number that we did last year, but of course that does depend on the M&A pipeline, which I would describe as typically robust, like lots of good ideas in the hopper. And so we are watching it closely, but I would expect share repurchase to end south of $700 million for the year.
Justin P. Hauke - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
Great. Thank you, guys.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Rosemarie Morbelli with Gabelli & Company. Please proceed with your questions.
Rosemarie Jeanne Morbelli - Gabelli & Company:
Thank you. Good morning. Good afternoon, rather, everyone. Doug, I was wondering. Industrial seems to be improving as far as you are concerned, so could you separate what was the improvement that was market driven versus Ecolab progress due to do new products on your accounts gains?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yes, I mean, look, the best we would have is where's GDP and where's our acceleration, I guess would be close. We don't spend a ton of time trying to understand every nuance of plus and minus on the market in terms of what consumption is of, let's say, water chemicals in the existing accounts. By and large, I would say this. We know we're gaining share, we've got very good traction now in heavy, the exception being China as I mentioned earlier, but that we believe is bottoming. We have very solid traction in light industry across the board, particularly in F&B, where we've put a lot of emphasis on the cross-selling. Our Food & Beverage, Food Safety business is doing very well and accelerating as we look and go through. Paper we talked is really a story of China and everywhere else. And I would just say the quick story, as I just mentioned in China, is we're not executing as we should. It's not a market problem, it's an execution problem and we own it. But we don't have a lot of those and we have one there and we'll address it and fix it as we are going forward and we are already working to do it. So I would say the Industrial I think across the board we've got good movement. We are confident we're gaining share, and most importantly, I think we're gaining momentum above and beyond what the market's giving us.
Rosemarie Jeanne Morbelli - Gabelli & Company:
Okay. Thanks. And then as you are expect price increases to more than offset for material inflations, do you think you can go back to – and I'm talking about the growth margin for the company overall. Do you think you can go back to 2016 margins? And again, I am also talking about on a public currency rate basis, not once you have adjusted everything. So if I look at 2016, for example, the first quarter growth margin was 47.3% and it went down to 46.5% in the first quarter of 2017 on that basis. Can we go to back to 2016 numbers in 2018?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yes. You know what we will get – well, here's the history. So we really saw no raw material increase as a company from, call it, mid-1980s until mid-2000s. And then we have had a steady – well, how about a march from 2004 onwards. It comes like every three, four years in waves. And we're in the midst of another wave. If you go back to 2004 and you look at our margin in businesses that we've owned this then, all of them have steadily increased in spite of raw material inflation. I know no reason that that pattern is not going to continue. So we complain a lot about inflation, but by and large it's been our friend, and we've executed well. So my expectation is, yes, ultimately, we will recover our margins that have been eroded as a consequence of raw materials, but it's predicated on two things. Yes, we have to get pricing, but we also have new innovation and drive new innovation that makes a lot of sense for our customers. And that's the other piece of this play that's being played out right now as well. So both of those are important. We typically don't just do it through raw pricing. Innovation plays a very important role.
Rosemarie Jeanne Morbelli - Gabelli & Company:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of James Dolan with Nomura Instinet. Please go ahead with your questions.
Dan Dolev - Instinet LLC:
Yes. It's actually Dan Dolev. Thanks for taking my question. Two questions. One is what was the benefit you got in the Energy segment from that legal cost recovery? And then, is that included in your non-GAAP EPS? Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yes. It was a legal settlement benefit that we got, and it was in the segment, because all the costs of prosecuting it were also in that segment and incurred. So we try to match cost and benefit wherever it shows up on the P&L, so they match.
Dan Dolev - Instinet LLC:
And is it included in that non-GAAP EPS number? Or is it excluded from non-GAAP?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
It's included in non-GAAP.
Dan Dolev - Instinet LLC:
Got it. Thank you. And then...
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
So were the costs.
Dan Dolev - Instinet LLC:
Right. Right. No. Understood. And my second question is if you take a step back and you think about where you started the year at $4.70 to $4.90, you were expecting $0.07 of EPS headwind. Now, it's neutral. Obviously, you add back the hurricane, it's about $0.08. And the equipment, it's about $0.01. But you also have like $0.04 of lower interest and lower taxes. So, I mean, net-net, I'm coming up with, say, like $4.60 at the midpoint versus $4.80. Where's the weakness coming from most in terms of just the apples-to-apples comparison? Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yes. Good rec. I would say, I have the same rec in front of me. And the only missing part, raw materials were a $0.16 hurt versus our expectation going into the year. And that was probably the big wild card. Because you're right, FX is about $0.07 better than we expected when we started the year. You got hurricanes, so you're basically – you go through this. The base business more or less performed as expected as we have our natural adjustments in there, so that really wasn't a big surprise. It would've been raw materials.
Dan Dolev - Instinet LLC:
Got it. And you did a little better on the SG&A. Is that cost cutting? Or just more?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, I mean, look, you adjust to the markets you have and to what you're going to do. So certainly there's efficiency drives, we continue to take our back office and centralize it in certain parts of the world, and do all those other things that you need to do to stay cost competitive.
Dan Dolev - Instinet LLC:
Got it. Thank you very much. Much appreciated. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Bob Koort with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead with your question.
Robert Koort - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Thank you very much. Doug, I was wondering as you guys went through in Institutional, the low-margin stuff, was there a commonality through that in terms of the products that you moved away from? Was it you weren't getting enough price? Was there too much cost involved? Was it a market that was going the wrong way? And then, what did you learn there that can make that a continuous process across your portfolio? Or is this more of an episodic event that we'll see from time to time?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, I'd say this one is sort of unique. But when we bought Swisher, it was losing cash. And the way you lose cash is you underprice, and they were underpricing in a whole host of accounts via what they were delivering and how they were delivering it. And so we worked with those accounts to basically say, look, we'd love to continue to serve you, we just can't do it at a negative cash basis. So we either bring up the price or we have to discontinue the service, and those are the exercises that we went through. So it's basically repairing what was a broken business. And as you recall, I mean, Swisher at one time was heralded as maybe the thing that was going to take us out. And you can't really sustain this on a going basis. So I would say Swisher is somewhat unique. We had to go exit. We weren't really – we don't believe in losing money for strategic reasons in accounts. It's never proven to be very strategic to me over any period of time. So we wanted to clean it up and get after it. And so with that, there's some pain associated with it. But we acquired Swisher at a very attractive price, so it's a business that's going to end us giving us returns but those returns need to be netted out once we see what our stable base is.
Robert Koort - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
And so no Swisher-like issues across other segments? Or is that something that you routinely search for?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Much more routinely. We are always looking at our bottom contracts in terms of profitability and understanding how we can improve them organically over time. We rarely get into situations – I don't know of any right now where we're – we don't like to be cash negative.
Robert Koort - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. We have reached the end of our allotted time for today's call. I will turn the call back to Mike Monahan for closing remarks.
Michael J. Monahan - Ecolab, Inc.:
Thanks. That wraps up our third quarter conference call. This conference call and the associated discussion and slides will be available for replay on our website. Thanks for your time and participation today, and our best wishes for the rest of the day.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. You made disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.
Executives:
Michael J. Monahan - Ecolab, Inc. Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.
Analysts:
Gary Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC John Quealy - Canaccord Genuity, Inc. David E. Ridley-Lane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Manav Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc. John Roberts - UBS Securities LLC Laurence Alexander - Jefferies LLC David I. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Christopher S. Parkinson - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC Tim M. Mulrooney - William Blair & Co. LLC Hamzah Mazari - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc. Scott Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC Andrew John Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. Rosemarie Jeanne Morbelli - Gabelli & Company Dan Dolev - Instinet LLC
Operator:
Greetings and welcome to Ecolab's Second Quarter 2017 Earnings Release Conference Call. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It's now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mike Monahan, Senior Vice President, External Relations. Thank you. Mr. Monahan, you may now begin.
Michael J. Monahan - Ecolab, Inc.:
Hello, everyone, and welcome to Ecolab's second quarter conference call. With me today is Doug Baker, Ecolab's Chairman and CEO; and Dan Schmechel, our CFO. A discussion of our results along with our earnings release and the slides referencing the quarter's results and our outlook are available on Ecolab's website at ecolab.com/investor. Please take a moment to read the cautionary statements on these materials stating that this teleconference, the discussion, and the slides include estimates of future performance. These are forward-looking statements, and actual results could differ materially from those projected. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are described in the section of our most recent Form 10-K under Item 1A, Risk Factors, and in our posted materials. We also refer you to the supplemental diluted earnings per share information in the release. Starting with a brief overview of the quarter, continued new business gains and pricing drove acquisition adjusted fixed currency sales growth in our Institutional, Industrial, and Other segments as well as increased Energy segment sales during the second quarter. These sales gains along with product innovation and ongoing cost efficiency work offset the impact of higher delivered product costs, which included a previously discussed $0.04 per share unfavorable currency hedge and challenging end markets. These, along with our work to lower interest expense and our tax rate as well as fewer shares outstanding, yielded the second quarter's 5% adjusted earnings per share increase. Moving to some highlights from the quarter and as discussed in our press release, on an adjusted basis, excluding special gains and charges and discrete tax items from both years, second quarter 2017 adjusted earnings per share were $1.13. Consolidated acquisition adjusted fixed currency sales for our Institutional, Industrial, and Other segments rose 3%, while Energy sales rose 5%. Regionally, sales growth was led by North America and Latin America. Reported operating margins increased 30 basis points. Adjusted fixed currency operating margins decreased 70 basis points as volume and price increases were partially offset by the impact of higher delivered product costs in the quarter. Adjusted fixed currency operating income rose 1%. The operating income gain, along with our work to lower interest expense and our tax rate as well as the fewer shares outstanding, yielded a 5% increase in the second quarter 2017 adjusted diluted earnings per share. We continue to aggressively drive our growth, winning new business through our innovative new products and sales and service expertise as well as driving pricing and cost efficiencies to grow our top and bottom lines and improve rates. We expect improving volume growth and pricing across all of our business segments in the second half and look for that to more than offset delivered product cost headwinds, which should ease sequentially through the second half, and yield strengthening operating income growth. We expect full-year adjusted diluted earnings per share in the $4.70 to $4.90 range in 2017, rising 8% to 12% with the second half results outpacing the first half. We expect third quarter adjusted diluted earnings per share to be in the $1.36 to $1.44 range, up 6% to 13%. In summary, despite a challenging market environment, we expect to deliver strong adjusted diluted earnings per share growth in 2017. And now, here is Doug Baker with some comments.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, hello, everyone. So, we had a solid Q2. We continue to expect to deliver double-digit adjusted EPS for the year. If we look at the macro environment, the economies around the world we'd say are mixed but in aggregate, are okay to good. FX headwinds have subsided. Energy markets have recovered some and certainly stabilized. Raw materials, though, are rising and creating some short-term margin pressure but we believe are manageable over the year. So, this year is going to be a tale of two halves. The first half came in as expected, including Q2. Sales are getting sequentially stronger from pricing, new business, and energy improvement. Margins are under modest pressure from raw materials and hedging comparisons. The second half, though, it's going to be much stronger from an EPS standpoint, up 13% to 14% if you take the midpoint of our range. This is driven by raws plateauing and hedging challenges dissipating, pricing and cost savings continuing to gain ground, and most importantly, sales acceleration from innovation, new corporate account investments and continued improvement in Energy. As a result, we expect to deliver a very solid 2017 and leave the year with excellent momentum going into 2018. So, with that, I'll turn it back to Mike.
Michael J. Monahan - Ecolab, Inc.:
Thanks. That concludes our formal remarks. As a final note, before we begin Q&A, we plan to hold our 2017 Investor Day in St. Paul on Thursday, September 7th. If you have any questions, please contact us. Operator, would you please begin the question-and-answer period?
Operator:
Thank you. We'll now be conducting a question-and-answer session. Our first question today is coming from the line of Gary Bisbee with RBC. Please go ahead with your questions.
Gary Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Hey, guys. Good afternoon. So, I guess, the main question for me is just the dollar has weakened quite a bit in the last month or two. I would assume there is some benefit to that. And so, should we think that something else has changed, leading to the flat guidance for the year? Or given that we're only halfway through, is it possible there's a little more conservatism in that view now given the currency moves? Thanks.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Gary, Doug. So, here's the FX. We said it was $0.05 negative in our first quarter release and neutral in the second quarter release. So, there's an implied $0.05 improvement. I would say simultaneously, we've had roughly a leak in raw materials of about a little over $0.03. And part of this move on FX was literally in the last days. And what I would say is what seems to move quick sometimes moves the other way quick. So, we don't know the bake this in fully as we go through the year. So, there is I guess, a little bit of conservatism in here simply because the FX markets move rapidly and often in opposing directions. So, really what we look at right now is we have some modest gain from FX in total, nowhere near $0.05 because some of it was eaten up by raw materials. If it stays or gets better, I would expect our year to get better.
Gary Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Okay. Great. And then the follow-up question, can we just get an update on the Institutional business, which in the Institutional segment within Global Institutional, in particular, which continues to lag history, and I think how you think about the growth potential? How close are we to better performance and what's the driver of that growth improving at some point? Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, Q2 was in line with what we expected and I think forecasted in Q1. If you cut through the noise, U.S. growth is a little softer. It's around 4%. Globally, I'd say Global Institutional is around 3%, same factors as last quarter which is what we had forecast. Same-store sales are a bit soft in U.S. First-half comps are a bit noisy because of Swisher, and part of it is exits on our own. New business though, ramp-up is coming. We're seeing traction there. We're not going to really see it in the numbers until the second half. Simultaneously, you'll get a bit of easing comps because we'll start lapping against the takeout on Swisher. So, I would say good news. Margins are recovering in that business. I think you'll start seeing sales pick up. We expect a better second half than first half and probably more normalized results as we close out the year.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of John Quealy with Canaccord. Please proceed with your question.
John Quealy - Canaccord Genuity, Inc.:
Hey. Good afternoon, folks. In terms of pricing, so in terms of the Energy business, seems like that was more variable. Can you talk about whether it was upstream, downstream? Sounds like you gave some price for share and then I have a follow-up. Thanks.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, price for share, probably the latest stuff we've had to do would have been in downstream, but that's been a bit ago. I think if you look at pricing in Energy, we would expect to be net positive by year-end, probably neutral in Q3 from a pricing standpoint. It's been healing quarter by quarter by quarter. WellChem is already positive just because of increased demand. OFC will probably be the next to flip to positive, and downstream will be fourth quarter. That's the pricing situation. And we never had the – I mean, we had significant pricing give-ups in many instances, but it wasn't like you heard around the industry.
John Quealy - Canaccord Genuity, Inc.:
Got you. And then the follow-up, inside Specialty, another double-digit type performance. You've commented in the past on some programs. Can you just give us an update on visibility on that sort of double-digit, upper single-digit growth rate moving forward? Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. No, largely, we would expect Specialty to have a strong year. I think in the first quarter, it was mid-single digits and we were asked, it was around 5%, 5.5%, was there anything wrong. It was really a timing issue. And so, now the new business that we talked about in the first quarter has kicked in. So, you're seeing double-digit type results. And we'd expect strong results through the rest of the year for sure.
John Quealy - Canaccord Genuity, Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of David Ridley-Lane with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.
David E. Ridley-Lane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Sure. I know Ecolab always has potential levers to pull through the course of any year. But the restructuring actions taken during the second quarter were more than what we were expecting. So, any comments on those and potentially thoughts on the magnitude of the cost savings you'll receive?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, payback will be in 18 months in total on the work that we're doing through restructuring, so very quick payback. I mean, some of the work pays back nearly immediately and some takes maybe up to two years max, but in average 18 months.
David E. Ridley-Lane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Great. And then in the water business, it sounds like you've finally getting to flat in mining. Any thoughts on how fast the other areas are growing and if you expect mining to be positive in the second half?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, we do expect mining to be positive in the second half. I will also say we expected mining to be positive in the second quarter. I mean, it was about flush. So, it's always a little hard to predict. But clearly, it's been healing, if you will, if you look at the sequential growth rates. And we do expect it to pop into positive in the second half for sure in probably the third quarter. Yeah, I'd say, overall, we've got very solid momentum in the heavy and light businesses. We have a very strong portfolio of new business coming on. The team has done a great job of getting after new business, had its most successful last two quarters, so really outstanding results. You're starting to see it. We would expect a stronger second half in every major business in the water area, heavy, light, and in mining. So, I think that team is in good shape. We feel we're in good shape overall. Margins are starting to heal. We'll start seeing some pricing across the board in that business as well, so we'll have both fronts working more in our advantage going into the second half.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Manav Patnaik with Barclays. Please proceed with your questions.
Manav Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Yeah. Thank you, guys. The first question is just around raw material increases that you saw. I was wondering if you could give a little bit more color on maybe where particularly that change versus your expectations and how long before you guys can put in actions to offset that.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, I don't know that the timing is much different in terms of when we start to expect to see light, if you will, on both gross margin and OI margin. So, we would expect to be positive versus prior year in the fourth quarter on both GP or gross margin and also on OI margin. Some of the businesses, Industrial will probably get positive in the third quarter; Institutional and Energy, more in the fourth quarter; total, around fourth quarter. So, I don't think it takes endless patience to start seeing pricing and cost savings offsetting the raw materials. The delta in terms of our expectations versus first quarter really was driven by caustic , Europe and AP, in particular, that affects Institutional, F&B and water, and then isopropyl alcohol is sort of on a negative tear at least from our perspective in Europe. And that's really Healthcare and water that's up 30%. So, it's really those two have been the biggest change drivers. I mean, it's leaked in other places, and forecasting this is never perfect. So, if you look in total, given our bill, it's pretty darn close. We're pretty accurate, but we spent a lot of money on raw materials. $4 million equals $0.01. It's not hard to be wrong by a penny or two.
Manav Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And then just on Energy, if I may, I mean, we've seen a lot of the macro analysts and so forth lower their long-term targets in oil prices. I think it's in line with what you guys have been expecting longer term anyway. It sounds like you're still hiring this year to set up for more aggressive maybe share in 2018. Any changes in your view and outlook broadly in Energy there?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
No, I think you're largely right. I think the Energy business and how we see oil price hasn't really changed from what we expected going in the year. So, we didn't have a particularly bullish outlook. So, we don't need to bring it down, I guess, is the easiest way to put it. So, what we're seeing in Energy right now is what's bouncing back first what was hit hardest by the downturn and that was North America WellChem. And WellChem in the quarter was up north of 50% in sales year-on-year. The other two businesses, if you take them collectively, were really flat, downstream and OFC together, versus last year. But that's better than Q1 where we were down a couple of points year-on-year. And if you look at the second half, I would say we expect more of the same. WellChem, continuing to improve and have strong year-on-year results as drilled wells are completed. OFC and downstream will see continued strengthening as we go throughout the year really from pricing leverage, volume slowly improving from share gains and industry recovery. We'll expect the margin, as I mentioned earlier, to start recovering in Q4, start to make some progress. So, in that, we think Energy remains positioned to do call it mid-single-digit type growth for the year on the top line, flat to modest OI gross on the bottom line but most importantly, leave the year with good momentum. And we don't expect a magic year in 2018 from a oil price rise standpoint, but we think we're well positioned in this environment to continue improve results, both top and bottom line even if oil doesn't have a substantial recovery.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of John Roberts with UBS. Please proceed with your question.
John Roberts - UBS Securities LLC:
Thank you. Any change in new win activity with the recent deals for your largest competitors in cleaning and water treatment chemicals?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, we don't go blow-by-blow, never have. I would say in both, well all of them, Institutional, F&B and water in particular, we've had great success the last two quarters in net new business. And it's been increasing over the performance we had for prior quarters. I don't know if you directly attribute. I mean, we're certainly beating the new business drum loudly within the business. And businesses are on it and starting to show really strong results, so I think it's a whole number of factors. I don't know that there is the same kind of dislocation feeling that we think will occur in the competitors, but we'll see.
John Roberts - UBS Securities LLC:
And secondly, I don't think this is big, but supermarkets have been in the headlines recently. And I think you used to talk about supermarket locations as growth areas for both cleaning services for fresh food preparation and also a lot of supermarkets we're adding QSR facilities. Has that stalled out with the pressures that are going on in that particular retail market?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
No, I think there's going to be probably more change in the food retail space, no doubt. There's all kinds of change and pressure in that business. But it will include more prepared foods likely, including potentially delivery and other things. So, we'll see a continued shift, if you will, around the foodservice landscape. Our food retail business remains quite healthy. It's a global business, and so we have significant opportunity, not only in North America to continue to gain share, but also around the world. And one of the things that I think we do particularly well is help customers manage through change, particularly when they have to change their risk profile, say, from selling raw food to prepared food. And we think that's going to be still a change and a move that you're going to see in that industry.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.
Laurence Alexander - Jefferies LLC:
Good afternoon. Can you just benchmark a little bit current thinking around direction of taxes and cash taxes given the progress that you've seen? And secondly, you allude in the prepared remarks to a comp effect affecting Q3. How do you think about comp affecting the bridge for 2018 versus 2017? It should be a net neutral. Is that right?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, I think this year, tax is going to be around 24-ish is where we had expected to end up. You know, Laurence, we do a lot of work every year looking at ways that we can improve our tax rate. We don't take bleeding edge strategies. We've always tried to have a balance between, if you will, kind of cash fungibilities, so we don't end up with significant amount of trapped cash, sometimes as a tradeoff with rate to chase the absolute lowest rate. It's actually at the cost of trapped cash. And so, we try to have a balanced approach as we go through. We would expect 2018 to be similar to 2017 right now as we look at it from a tax rate, so we don't believe it's going to be either a significant tailwind or a headwind next year.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.
David I. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Thank you. Doug, back to the guidance, at the very low end, which seems very conservative, what would need to happen for you guys to hit that $4.70 number?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, I guess, any number of things. I mean, the world is not the most stable place. I don't think it's likely that we're going to be down there. I would say it's unlikely we're going to be there. Looking at the range right now, given we had a benefit really from FX, which was quite recent since we've seen daylight, we're talking days. And everything else, I mean, we are forecasting a pretty aggressive second half, 13% to 14% EPS, which is really kind of double-digit third quarter and a very strong fourth quarter. We just said it probably made sense to stick with this range given all the uncertainty in the world, but I would be quite surprised if we end up on the very bottom of the range to your comment. I don't think it's highly likely. I think our position is good. Our businesses are improving across the board. We feel like we've gotten most of the stuff in hand and understand it, which is always the time something shakes somewhere that we didn't predict, but I think we've got a little flex in a couple of areas to allow us to manage even some level of unhappy surprise going throughout the balance of the year, which is how we normally manage. So, yeah, there is some conservatism on the bottom of the range, absolutely.
David I. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Got it. Doug, just on Anios, how is that acquisition progressing seven months into it?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, I mean, we're predicting to be on or above on both top line and bottom line in the first year. We always have very aggressive objectives, particularly when we do a management case, so we do two cases for all acquisition. We do sort of the financial case and then we do a management case. Management has to sign up for the second, and we're beating and exceeding those numbers. So, we feel very good. It's a great company. The culture fit is what we expected, very solid and strong. They're very focused on customers, very focused on growth. We feel like we made the right move buying that company. So, so far, so good.
David I. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question is coming from the line of Christopher Parkinson with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.
Christopher S. Parkinson - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Thank you. Within Industrial, can you sort of view your new account pipeline in F&B, the share gain outlook in conjunction with your enterprise solutions effort for the second half of into 2018 and whether or not it is meeting or exceeding your expectations, which I recall were a little more upbeat during your last call? Thanks.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, F&B, we expect to have a better second half than first half, and it's being driven by two of the issues you just cited. One is they've had a lot of success in new business in the first half. It will start showing up Q3 and Q4 as they roll it out. I mean, you have to actually install it and start shipping. It's not the signed contract that moves the needle from the P&L standpoint. Additionally, I would say, when we look at a number of the new initiatives, the new initiatives particularly Industrial have longer legs than they say in Institutional because it takes longer to get uptake. When you're going in and switching systems in a food plant, there's a lot of things people have to be concerned about, making sure that they don't impact quality or safety as you change out systems or move from one antimicrobial to another, et cetera. So, it always takes a little longer to ramp up. But our 3DT CIP systems are really starting to take off. We feel very good about a number of antimicrobial platforms that we have coming. So, all in all, I'd say we feel bullish about the F&B business, particularly given what it's had to come through in terms of plant shutdowns and consolidation. In North America and other places, they continue to keep their nose above water in the top line. The dairy business looks like it's starting to move in the right direction. Milk prices were incredibly low for a period of time. So both dairy, food, some of our big segments are improving. We expect it to have a strong second half.
Christopher S. Parkinson - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
And as a quick corollary to that, as it pertains to the enterprise selling effort, is F&B typically the anchor for your sales force for the water and pest businesses or is it the other way around? Is it typically mixed? Just any outlook on that as well. Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
It's worked both ways. When you're in the food and beverage business, our food and beverage team, the food safety portion of that team had a higher share, if you will, of that business than did Nalco Water when we put the companies together. So, the majority of the introductions, if you will, came from the F&B side to the water side. But it wasn't all F&B introducing water. We've had a number of instances where the relationship was with the water team and they brought F&B in. But that's been a huge success for us. The customers see these as completely interrelated. They understand the advantages of having, if you will, one company do both for them. We've worked to make it obvious. We continue to do other things around reporting, synergistic chemistries, service. We're looking at organization structures, et cetera, to make this work even better for our food and beverage industry customers. So, we feel good about this. There is still legs, plenty of room and opportunity to sell more here, working together, and we're going to continue to push them.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of Tim Mulrooney with William Blair. Please go ahead with your question.
Tim M. Mulrooney - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Yeah. Good afternoon. I understand that restaurant foot traffic became more of a headwind through the first half of this year than maybe it's been over the last several years. Given how much you guys see the touch points across thousands of restaurants, I'm just curious if you have any insight as to why this deceleration is taking place. Is there some underlying secular trend? Is it more macro related? What do you think is going on here?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, I would say the softness in the first quarter in particular was also timed identically to the retail softness broadly. There's all kinds of assumptions or guesses about what was driving it then, timing of tax refunds, et cetera. I don't think you've got any huge fundamental change that you're currently seeing in U.S. food service, i.e., takeout or some other magical thing. Those things move year-on-year but at a fairly slower rate, so I don't believe those are the trends that we're seeing. I think what we're seeing is some softness broadly in a certain segment of the foodservice industry. We've chased it before over time. We'll probably chase it again. So, that's really I think the issue. I don't believe there's been any fundamental secular change that we're dealing with at this moment. That's not what the industry sees. It's not what the stats suggest. So, I think for us, we're having to overcome some softness in one of our key segments. We deal with this all the time. And the best way to deal with it is sell more business, and that's exactly what we're working to do. If same-store sales start rebounding to more normalized levels, we'll be the beneficiary of it, probably on a greater scale because we'll have larger share.
Tim M. Mulrooney - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Okay. Thank you. That was helpful. Maybe switching gears to life science. Life science decelerated I think in the second quarter to 5%. Is that how we should think about long-term growth for this business? Or do you think about it more as a high single-digit grower through the cycle? And can you also remind me how large this business is today? Is it about $100 million? Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, it's about $100 million. It's going to be lumpy. I think we expect this to be a double-digit business over stretches of time. We'd expect it to grow north of – I mean, into the teens, maybe early teens in balance of the year. And it's really you sell – this is the old feed the village with an elephant, so that's the nature of this business. It's a lot like QSR and lumpy like QSR. I'd say over time, QSR has got a big base now, so it's not as lumpy as it was. We explain this all the time in QSR. I think it's going to be the same story in life sciences. They've sold a bunch of new business. They feel confident in the second half. I would expect to see much different results in Q3 and Q4.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Hamzah Mazari with Macquarie. Please proceed with your questions.
Hamzah Mazari - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Good afternoon. My first question is just on the European business, if you could provide a little more color. It seems like it was weaker across most segments, except for the water business and Healthcare.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, I mean, in total, our Europe business was really weak in the first quarter and obviously, better in the second quarter. We expect the top line to be better still in the second half. Water was one of the main drivers for the performance improvement from Q1 to Q2, and it was welcome to see. We'd expect Institutional to improve through the balance of the year, F&B as well. So, I don't think it's going to be only a water story for all of 2017. It was principally a water story in Q2.
Hamzah Mazari - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
And just a follow-up, on the balance sheet, the leverage is still low but has ticked up a bit. Maybe just frame for us your appetite to do larger deals longer term and ability to use the balance sheet. Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, our appetite hasn't changed nor have our taste buds, meaning we want really good deals that have the ability to deliver favorable returns to shareholders over the long term. And so, if that's the environment, obviously, it's got to be a strategic fit of business, we have a right to own and run and run well, fit our model, and all of the like. We have a big appetite to do those deals when they make sense. And so, our balance sheet, we don't believe is any way a hindrance in our ability to do that. We've ramped up what we needed to. We have room in the balance sheet even sitting here today. We expect those metrics to improve as we go throughout the year. So, we'll have more room, if you will, by the year-end than we do now, but we don't even view it as an issue right now.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Scott Schneeberger with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead with your questions.
Scott Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc.:
Thanks. Doug, you talked a little bit earlier on Manav's question about kind of what you're expecting in the back half in Energy. Could you just refresh us on how to think about how well completion activity progresses to production? I know we've seen a steadiness now in the oil price? And then a follow-up on that is in the press release, it was discussed, the soft international markets in Energy. Could you delve in a little on that, too, please? Thanks.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
To the first one, I mean, all the pressure initially in the downturn really hit the North American market, the unconventional piece in particular. And that's where you saw almost all the volume takeout in the industry was in the U.S. The rest of the world often I would say oil production is directly tied to some economy like Russia or Venezuela. And when prices go down, oil price per barrel, their production tends to go up over the near term. They're trying to offset, if you will, the bleeding in their economy. And so, you get this kind of perverse activity going on. That can only last so long because it simultaneously cut CapEx. They start losing the ability to keep and maintain production without new CapEx. And what we're seeing is the shift. First, the pain was in North America. In 2015, our international non-North American business was up in Energy and was pretty strong. In 2016, you started seeing pain on both sides. And what you're now seeing is recovery first in North America because it went down first and international will lag. So, that's, by and large, the geographic story in this business. Our WellChem business is predominantly North America. And so, we took it on the chin when we had the North America pain early in the downturn. Likewise, when you see – the really significant pickup in the business is in North America. It benefits disproportionately as well, and we're also seeing that. In terms of drilling activity, there's a one to two quarter lag often from drilling to completion. Our WellChem business doesn't really realize the benefits until you've got completion. And if you look at drilling but uncompleted units, they have risen recently. It's a little north of 6,000 right now. And those will be completed, and that's what's going to drive benefit for WellChem over the next couple of quarters. So, I don't know – hopefully, that answers the two questions you posed.
Scott Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc.:
It did. Very helpful. If I could just sneak a follow-on on that. The compensation rebuild, obviously, it's baked into the guidance for the rest of the year, which we can see, but is that something that's going to affect 2018 as well? Or is that kind of a catch-up right now this time of this year? Thanks.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Much more of a 2017 issue than a 2018 issue. I would say both things. You're going to have better balance between price and raw materials in 2018 than you did in 2017. And comp rebuild is predominantly a 2017 story. I mean, it's going to be a little bit in 2018 but not at the same level.
Scott Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Dmitry Silversteyn with Longbow Research. Please proceed with your questions.
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC:
Doug, Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. I just want to make sure I understand what's going on with the Energy business and given that your margins are still sort of in the high single digits versus I would expect it by now to see more of a recovery into a low double-digit range. It sounds from your comments like you do expect that recovery in the second half of the year. So, I'm just trying to understand if that's going to be driven by volume or by better sort of pricing, raw material mix or kind of where is your confidence coming from that the revenue growth is going to translate into profit growth and profit margin growth?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, Dmitry, I mean, here is what we're seeing and as I mentioned on an earlier question, a couple back, we will start to see daylight in Energy between price recovery and raw material incremental cost starting really in Q4. We're starting to see some price recovery in WellChem, but as I mentioned, the Other businesses is going to be a little later in the year. So, you'll start seeing that dynamic work more in our favor than against us, which it has for the last several quarters. The comp rebuild is really – the heavy pieces are Q2, Q3 on that business, so we'll start annualizing against that, and you just start having more significant volume gains, and those start translating into, right, overhead coverage and the like. I mean, I think we were very clear this year even at the beginning to say we expected sales to be mid-single digit, NOI to be flat or modestly up, which implies margin linkage just by nature. And so, what we're seeing isn't a real surprise, and it's also quite consistent with past recoveries. You start seeing sales recover before margin. Margin follows more like year two than year one, but it starts recovering. And what we're seeing right now suggests we're exactly on that trajectory, and we'll start seeing improvement in margins Q4.
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC:
Q4. Okay. I just wanted to confirm that. And then the second question, I think it was a couple of quarters ago when talking about a slowdown that you guys seen in your Industrial business that you mentioned that uncharacteristically for you, you sort of took the eye off the new wins ball, if you will, or getting new relationships going and just expanding your business and capturing market share. We saw a little bit of improvement in the first quarter, not so much in the second quarter in terms of year-over-year comps. So, where do we stand in that, I guess, re-energized initiative, if I will, of going out and getting the business and making sure that you control more of your destiny than the market?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, I would say the business is strengthening. I'd say the new business productivity has been very strong the last couple of quarters. You are right. I mean, I think we looked at our new business productivity honestly across the board and felt we needed to turn up the heat and we've done it, and we're starting to see the results. I would expect Industrial, so predominantly F&B and water, to have an improved second half, both in top line, margin, frankly across the P&L in the second half versus first half, and we think we're well positioned to do it. So, we feel good about what's going on in those businesses. I think the teams have positioned them. The work they've been doing is going to start bearing fruit starting Q3.
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Andrew Wittmann with Robert W. Baird. Please proceed with your questions.
Andrew John Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
Hi. Great. Thanks. I guess my question is on the Other segment. This is one of your faster-growing segments and has been for a while. In your release script, you guys talked about some investments there. I guess, I'd like to understand a little bit more about those types of investments, what they were, and how you expect them to affect the margins on a go-forward basis from here.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
I mean, some of the investment is just strictly people, so that's a variable expense. And we're having sales growth. We want to continue to make sure that we're feeding it, and people aren't immediately productive when you put them on. So, there's always a little bit of a drag. I think more significant in past, we've been leveraging much more effectively technology in the field. We had a large group of field meetings this year, which we didn't have the prior year to the tune of a couple million dollars. It didn't sound like a lot. It's not. But it does affect a 13-week period at times, and so that's the other cost. That's a onetime cost this year. It is not going to repeat in three and four. That also has some impact on the margins here, net. We don't have a high concern about the margins in the Other segment. We think they will do what they're supposed to do as we go on. We want to make sure that we continue to drive top line success there.
Andrew John Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
Okay. Great. I'll leave it there. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Rosemarie Morbelli with Gabelli. Please proceed with your questions.
Rosemarie Jeanne Morbelli - Gabelli & Company:
Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. Doug, following up on the Other category, equipment care was up only 2%. Could you bring us up-to-date as to what you are doing there and remind me of what the anticipated growth rate over the long term is? Can you get to the 8% or thereabout that pest is enjoying?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. No, I mean, we'd expect our equipment care business to accelerate. The 2% is not anywhere near our target. We were growing upper single digits recently as last year, so I don't think there's anything – we're in a bit of a lull in that business. We don't plan to hang out here very long. The team is on it. We need to get after it. We got a little behind on keeping manpower levels where we needed them. That's been improved per the earlier question, and so I would expect we'll start accelerating that business again.
Rosemarie Jeanne Morbelli - Gabelli & Company:
And then looking at both Europe and Asia Pacific and I apologize if you talked about it already, but could you talk about the impacts from the higher raw material costs and then the trend in demand in both of those regions for the different businesses that you operate there?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, Europe, we talked about a bit. We've got in Europe, we would expect Industrial recovery first but Institutional improved throughout the year. So I think overall, we'd expect to have a pretty good year in terms of top line performance in Europe. We're up about 2.5% in the second quarter after being slightly negative in the first quarter. So, it was a pretty strong sequential recovery, if you will. In terms of raw materials, they're biting us in Europe. No doubt about it. We have the same story there. It takes us a while to recover via pricing, but we're starting to get pricing in Europe as well. And we expect a kind of tried-and-true formula we've talked which is absolute raw material cost coverage, year one and margin recovery, year two. Sometimes we do it in a little more accelerated basis, but it's not a bad way to think about it. So, I think Europe is going to be okay. We probably won't see our 100-point OI margin improvement this year simply because we're dealing with the raws, and we'll expect to have more than 100 points next year. And we've also seen this in the recent past, so I'm comfortable that we're more right than wrong in Europe. AP, yeah, we've got some work to do on some of the businesses. We see improving results in a number of areas but it's inconsistent. And AP is sort of it's not really a region, right? We've got Australia, Japan, Southeast Asia. You've got very different markets there. And all in all, where we really need growth, I think the team is doing the right stuff. And in some of these markets, we want more balanced growth in margin given our share and where we ought to be in kind of tradeoffs and opportunity. So, I think there is stuff we can continue to improve in our AP performance, and we expect to see that improving throughout the year as well. That's a harder market to get pricing traditionally.
Rosemarie Jeanne Morbelli - Gabelli & Company:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our final question today comes from the line of Dan Dolev with Nomura. Please proceed with your questions.
Dan Dolev - Instinet LLC:
Hi, Doug. Thanks for taking my questions. Two questions. First one on raws. If I heard you correctly, you expect raws to plateau in the second half of the year. Did I hear you correctly and is that what's embedded in the guidance?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Oh. Yes. Sorry. I missed the pun there. Yeah, it's embedded in the guidance. Otherwise, I wouldn't have offered the comment. But I would say, we look at kind of peak Q3 on raws, but we also have pricing increasing in Q3, so the delta is more in our favor in Q3 than it was in Q2 because it takes a little time for pricing to catch up with raws. Additionally, our hedge, which we've talked about and said it was principally first half challenge dissipates down in the third quarter versus the first two and basically gone in the fourth quarter.
Dan Dolev - Instinet LLC:
Okay. Great. Thank you. And then my second question is on the SG&A. If I look back over the last 10 years, you've done a really good job lowering your SG&A as a percent of sales. How much lower do you think you can go? How much more room do you have to decline? I guess, you went from 33% in the first guidance to 32% to 33%, and now, you're at 32%. So, how much lower can you go and how do you plan to get there if you needed to? Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. Well, I would say our SG&A has benefited from a number of things. I mean, certainly, we're a lot of bigger, and so you've got a lot better leverage over, say, G&A resources broadly, corporate, regional, et cetera, over the last 10 years. We're also leveraging field technology and improving the way that we drive that technology. And so, you see some of that benefit. I would say what we would expect, we'll continue to grow, so I think you'll still see G&A leverage going forward, predominantly from growth but also from technology. But in the field, which is really the big spend area, we're working now. We've got, I don't know, some 2 million customer sites nearly if you add up all the restaurants, probably collecting data 90%. But we only have a small fraction of it currently connected to the cloud. So, in most instances, our people have to walk into the unit, download via an RF port, and then they have the data to start analyzing how they can further improve the customer's operation. We know that if we take that and send it to the cloud, do the analytics, send it to our person in advance of them arriving at the front door that we're going to improve their productivity significantly and improve the amount of time they have for up-selling and for doing other things, even handling more accounts. So, technology, I would say in all industries, we have not yet pushed boundaries in these areas we are going to. We're doing a lot of I think very smart things in these areas, and we believe ultimately we'll see benefits that will show up in lower SG&A ratios, probably the ability to do more for our customers. Also in a host of areas, we think it will benefit our business.
Operator:
Thank you. Mr. Monahan, there are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the floor back over to you for closing comments.
Michael J. Monahan - Ecolab, Inc.:
Thank you. That wraps up our second quarter conference call. This conference call and the associated discussion slides will be available for replay in our website. Thank you for your time and participation and our best wishes for the rest of the day.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may now disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day.
Executives:
Michael J. Monahan - Ecolab, Inc. Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.
Analysts:
Gary Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC John Salvatore Quealy - Canaccord Genuity, Inc. David E. Ridley-Lane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Gregory Bardi - Barclays Capital, Inc. John Roberts - UBS Securities LLC Laurence Alexander - Jefferies LLC P.J. Juvekar - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Christopher S. Parkinson - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC Tim M. Mulrooney - William Blair & Co. LLC Michael J. Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC Hamzah Mazari - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc. Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC Andrew John Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. Shlomo Rosenbaum - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc. Rosemarie Jeanne Morbelli - G.research LLC Christopher Evans - Goldman Sachs & Co. Dan Dolev - Instinet LLC
Operator:
Greetings, and welcome to Ecolab's First Quarter 2017 Earnings Release Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Mike Monahan, Senior Vice President of External Relations. Mr. Monahan, you may begin.
Michael J. Monahan - Ecolab, Inc.:
Thank you. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Ecolab's first quarter conference call. With me today is Doug Baker, Ecolab's Chairman and CEO, and Dan Schmechel, our CFO. As discussed, in our results along with our earnings release and the slides referencing the quarter's results and our outlook are available on Ecolab's website at ecolab.com/investor. Please take a moment to read the cautionary statements on these materials stating that this teleconference, the discussion and the slides, including estimates of future performance. These are forward-looking statements, and actual results could differ materially from those projected. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are described in the section of our most recent Form 10-K under Item 1A, Risk Factors, and in our posted materials. We also refer you to the supplemental diluted earnings per share information in the release. Starting with a brief overview of the quarter, continued new business gains and product introductions drove acquisition adjusted fixed currency growth in our Global Institutional, Global Industrial and Other segments during the first quarter. These were partially offset by a narrowing sales decline in the Energy segment. Product innovation and ongoing cost efficiency work more than offset the impact of higher-than-forecast delivered product costs, as well as soft economies and challenging end markets. These, along with lower interest expense, a lower tax rate and fewer shares outstanding, yielded the first quarter's 4% adjusted earnings per share increase. Moving on to some highlights from the quarter and as discussed in our press release, consolidated acquisition adjusted fixed currency sales for our Global Institutional, Global Industrial and Other segments grew 3%, but were partially offset by a narrowing Global Energy sales decline. Regional fixed currency sales growth was led by Latin America and North America. Reported operating margins decreased 20 basis points. Adjusted fixed currency operating margins decreased 10 basis points, as higher Energy segment profits and the price and volume increase were more than offset by the impact of higher delivered product costs, which include a $0.04 per share unfavorable currency hedge year-on-year comparison, representing a 5 percentage point negative impact to EPS growth in the quarter. Adjusted fixed currency operating income rose 2%. The operating income gain, along with lower tax rate, lower interest expense and fewer shares outstanding, yielded a 4% increase in first quarter 2017 adjusted earnings per share. We continue to see sluggish economic growth, higher delivered product costs and gradually improving fundamentals in the energy markets, and we expect these to generally continue through the balance of the year. We are, again, working aggressively to drive our growth, winning new business using our innovative new products and a sharp focus on sales execution, as well as driving pricing and cost efficiencies to grow our top and bottom lines at improved rates. We expect improving volume growth and pricing across all of our business segments, and look for that to overcome delivered product cost headwinds, which slow as the year progresses, and yield operating income growth. We expect this focus on top line growth and margin expansion will yield full year adjusted diluted earnings per share, which we forecast in the $4.70 to $4.90 per share range in 2017, rising 8% to 12%, with the second half results outpacing the first half. We expect second quarter adjusted diluted earnings per share to be in the $1.08 to $1.15 range, up 0% to 6%. And now here's Doug Baker with some comments.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Thank you, Mike. So, the first quarter was certainly not our prettiest, but better than it looks and it does set us up for the full year delivery. Most things are on track, pricing, new business, innovation, investments, industrial business acceleration, energy recovery and FX stabilization, but we did have a few surprises. Raws moved faster than forecast in the quarter, and we do believe will be net higher for the year. The good news is, our pricing also has traction and we believe will catch up on a dollar basis this year. Institutional sales were also soft. They were softer than expected, but they're better than they look. So, if you take and adjust the base business for Swisher exits, which we have done because of margin and other issues, we're really growing at about 5% in North America and 4% globally. That's still slower than last year and slower than we expected. The issue primarily is that U.S. restaurant same-store consumption is down. (05:14) you got to go sell more business. We're not going to fix the U.S. foodservice market by ourselves and the division is already all over this driving significant new business campaigns, and we've got the right team to do this. In total, Q1 was solid, not brilliant, but leaves us in position to deliver the year. The most important perspective on 2017 to understand is that the second half EPS ramp up is not nearly as steep as it appears. We need to do 14% EPS in the second half to reach our midpoint or $4.80. The first half run rate is really an 11% when you control for hedge and other non-recurring install and other expenses. So, we still have a step-up, but it's much more manageable moving from an 11% to a 14% than what may appear to be from like a 4% or 5% to a 14%. So, the step-up requires sales to move from 2.5% in the first half to 5% in the second half, which I believe is quite doable. Here are couple of facts. Energy trajectory this year, 0% growth really in the first half, we expect them to grow at least at 5% in the second half. If you assume that, then II&O (06:27) needs to go from 3.5% in the first to 4% in the second. We already have Industrial sales trajectory moving, it's accelerating. Institutional in the second half will lap the Swisher exits, and we've got a clearer view of timing on known wins and losses throughout the businesses, all of which are quite favorable to us. Net, we're making progress. We believe we're on track to go deliver a solid year. And so while Q1 won't win many style points, we do believe we're going to deliver a more Ecolab-like performance in 2017. So, with that, I'll turn it back to Mike.
Michael J. Monahan - Ecolab, Inc.:
Thanks, Doug. That concludes our formal remarks. As a final note before we start Q&A, we plan to hold our annual tour of our booth at the National Restaurant Association Show in Chicago on Monday, May 22. Looking further ahead, we also plan to hold our 2017 Investor Day on Thursday, September 7. If you have any questions, please contact my office. And now, operator, please begin the question-and-answer period.
Operator:
Thank you. At this time, we'll be conducting a question-and-answer session. Thank you. Our first question is from the line of Gary Bisbee with RBC. Please proceed with your questions.
Gary Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Hey, guys. Good afternoon. I guess, I'd love to get some more color on the Institutional business and the deceleration there. If Swisher bleeding off some of the lower margin volumes there is a big piece of it, I would have thought maybe that margins would have been better, and yet they were down quite a bit. So, any more color on the revenue, and any color on the margin to help us think how that trends the rest of the year? Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, I think within the Institutional margin, you've got some of the noise I referred to earlier. You certainly have some impact from hedging, not in the U.S. margin particular, but U.S. global or in Institutional global. And you also have investments that have been made, particularly in plant equipment, to enable a new platform for solids, which is now coming online. It's in the margin, but not yet fully or even partially utilized in some cases, as we're rolling that out late in the second quarter. That's also making it a little worse. And then we have a few rollouts, where we've got the mechanical equipment expense or the ME expense in the business, but not the sales yet. So, I would say if you look at Institutional margin, it looks like it's down, but there's a number of things, which really, I think, mask the underlying trend in their margin. And we expect, over the year, that their margin is going to start showing daylight between this year and last year. Pricing in Institutional was the best performer last year, and they're continuing on a very solid track this year. So, we're not really worried, ultimately, in Institutional margins.
Gary Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
And just the – any more color on the revenue deceleration?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, Gary, I mean it really comes down to mostly same store's consumption in U.S. restaurant. And that we've dealt with many times in the past. Restaurants come in and out in terms of how successful they're being. I don't think we're the only ones feeling this. We've tended to manage this better than others. The division got on it early. They have a number of what I would call high-energy new business efforts underway that are gaining traction, and that's the only way you sell through this is you got to go gain more business. We, by ourselves, can't force the restaurants to consume more, and they're really just reflecting the softness in their business.
Gary Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Great. And then the quick follow-up. With Energy it sounds like on the verge of rebounding, can you just review for us how you're thinking today about operating leverage coming back to the business? I know there's some cost you'd stepped aside from that's probably come back, but how strong could incremental margins be as we look to the next 18 months and the revenue rebounds there? Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. Typically, what we've seen in the past and what we expect this year is, let's call this the very early innings of a recovery. And we typically see really margin recovery and a lot of flow-through more in year two than in year one. And that's simply because as you're starting to see volume increase, you're simultaneously seeing some of the raw materials increase, pricing lags a bit. And so you end up with increasing sales, but not significant and sometimes even near-term decelerating margin before it starts expanding again. You also have some costs you've got to add back. The largest cost this year that we're going to have to add back is compensation. So, it's a business because of performance, it hasn't earned bonus over the last several years. They are on track to earn bonus this year, and so we've got to rebuild that. We're also rebuilding some other comp where it matters because the industry heats up, it becomes much more competitive. In total, for the year, I think we're pretty much where we thought we would be last call, and that is we're going to have some year-on-year sales growth in this business. Really, it's going to be a second half story as I alluded to in my opening remarks. And we also expect to be about even to have some minor potential accretion on the operating income line, too, as we start rebuilding comp and that somewhat offsets the volume benefit that we're going to see.
Gary Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of John Quealy with Canaccord. Please proceed with your questions.
John Salvatore Quealy - Canaccord Genuity, Inc.:
Hey, good afternoon. First question, diving back into the foot traffic topic. Inside Specialty and quick serve, did you also see that foot traffic issue or was it, as you've reported, more of a timing issue off a tough comp last year?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. In Specialty, it's more a timing issue, and it's not even just the comp. We've got a lot of new business that's being put on in Specialty right now. They're going to have a very solid year. The quarter is really just sort of an aberration. We've gone through this. As I've always described, that's sort of a – the way they feed their village is through hunting elephants, and they've landed several, but they just haven't brought them back to the village. They're coming. So, even there you've got some of the pressure as a consequence of they've installed a lot of these accounts, but they haven't yet started consuming our product in the first quarter. They're starting to in the second quarter, as they had to run out the old competitive product first. So, that also put pressure on the first quarter margin. There's going to be a little less pressure from that in the second quarter but still some, and all that pressure goes away in the second half as we realize the full effects of the new business volume in Specialty.
John Salvatore Quealy - Canaccord Genuity, Inc.:
Okay. Thanks. And as a follow-up, Doug, a broader question, more on people. Sounds like you're adding and rebuilding some channel in the core businesses. Equipment Care seems like it's constrained a bit just trying to get talent for those folks and then Energy, we're adding back some compensation. When you think about broader compensation costs for the platform into 2018 in what could be a rising wage environment, talk about the puts and takes and how you're planning for that. Thanks, guys.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. I don't think we're going to see dramatic wage inflation in 2018 versus 2017. I mean, it's been fairly steady even over the last couple of years. I mean, many of the markets that we compete in are pretty full employment. And we've got several things going for us. One, we've got a great employment brand story. We've got great track record of growth. We're on the right stuff, stuff that matters to people who are joining the workforce in terms of our ability to talk about clean water, safe food, abundant energy and healthy environments. It really does resonate with people we're trying to attract. And in terms of how do you offset the wage pressure, it's really through efficiency programs. So, as we've talked, we've invested a lot in field technology. That's bearing fruit and enabling us to help our team do more and handle more as we take the admin off them and automate that kind of work. We have many more programs like that now that we have the installed base, the field technology in their hands, and that's in the base business or the run rate. So, those are really the steps we have to take, but I wouldn't be signaling that there's going to be some fundamental shift in wage pressures. We've had wage pressure. We expect to continue to have some wage pressure, but I don't think it's going to be at a dramatically different trajectory.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of David Ridley-Lane with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.
David E. Ridley-Lane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Sure. Now that you've broken out the Life Sciences business, can you maybe talk about medium-term expectations for revenue growth in that segment? And also, would you describe it as an above-average margin business, a business for you today or – what are your outlooks on margin as well?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, Life Sciences business chase (16:30) is a big market. It's very well designed for us. It's dominated by large multinationals who have significant hygiene needs, as you might imagine. With a change in their business model, where they're going from long-run to shorter-run drugs and even cosmetics, changeover is important. And so our ability to help manage changeover time, water consumption, hygiene, all fits very much their needs, and our ability to do it consistently across the globe is also important. So, as we look at this, it already is a higher-than-average margin business. We would expect it to remain so, given the fit for what we do and the critical needs that our customers have in this area. It's going to act a bit like Kay and then it's going to be lumpy, meaning we're going after large customers. They aren't all going to come on smoothly, so I think you're going to see some knockout quarters and other quarters that may be single digits, not double digits. But in total, our expectation for this business is it's a double-digit organic growth business. We will look to see if there are smart acquisitions to be made. But that's to be seen. We're not relying on it. Fundamentally, we've got the capability we need and we can build what we don't, and we're getting after this. So, we're quite excited about this market and the potential.
David E. Ridley-Lane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Sure. And as a follow-up, Europe appeared to be a pretty weak region for you in the first quarter. Would you put Europe in that category of things that you expect to have a second half improvement? Or is this a bit more macro related and should continue to be sluggish here for the full year?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
No, I think Europe will do better as the year goes on. I mean, Europe is a combination of somewhat the environment, but I would also say, I think, there's some things we can do better in Europe. And certainly, we've got a couple of businesses pulling down the overall. I mean, as it stands, what I would say is, we expect Europe to have modest sales growth and modest OI ratio improvement for the year. And what we're going to work hard to do is improve that outlook as we go forward. I don't think it's going to dominate the news in terms of company performance, and I think the forward quarter is going to be better than this one.
David E. Ridley-Lane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Manav Patnaik with Barclays. Please proceed with your questions.
Gregory Bardi - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Hi. This is actually Greg calling on for Manav. I just wanted to ask for a little more color on the growth trajectory within Industrial and just any changes that you're seeing in terms of lapping the headwinds, whether it's in heavy or mining.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, I would say heavy, in total, I'll get down to organic, had growth in this quarter and we expect it to accelerate. Mining narrowed its decline, I mean it was low single digits, better than the fourth, which is clearly better than the third. We'd expect mining to start showing growth maybe as early as this quarter, more likely in the third quarter. So, I'm not sure it's all that important, but it's clearly making the progress we expect. And we expect heavy to continue to accelerate throughout the year. The comps for water, for heavy and mining, in particular, improve throughout the year. And so, we'd expect you're going to see overall acceleration in water as a consequence.
Gregory Bardi - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Okay, thanks. And then I know it's a bit early with the Anios deal, but just some early thoughts on how that integration is going and how you guys are looking at the opportunity set?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Under the heading you got to get the big ones right, we are. So, we really – we've liked Anios and admired it for a long time and for good reason. I think everything that we're learning is what a quality company and business it is. It's a lot easier to integrate a business that operates well because in all, the new stuff that you can bring to them and also the ideas you can take from them for the other businesses, it's going on a firm foundation. That's certainly what we have there. So, yeah, Anios, it's growing. We're seeing the operating leverage we expected. We're on track. We believe to deliver good synergy numbers. My hope is that we exceed it this year, we'll see. But yeah, we feel very good about it, still early days, but it's off to the right start.
Gregory Bardi - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
All right. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of John Roberts with UBS. Please proceed with your questions.
John Roberts - UBS Securities LLC:
Thank you. Any thoughts on competing against Diversey or GE Water under the new owners? I'm curious whether that's behind the back half of the year new win improvement that you're talking about.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, I would certainly say I think anytime a company goes through a transition like the one that either GE Water or Diversey has to go through, i.e., a big ownership change, certainly causes distraction. We've seen it in the past. We expect to see it going forward, and we aren't shy about working to capitalize on it. We feel it's our responsibility. So, we have – let's just say, I talked about the Institutional efforts. We have very strong efforts everywhere to get after new business. We had a good first quarter from a new business standpoint. We had a very significant ratio against our key competitors in terms of win/loss, I would say stronger ratios than we had in 2016, which were quite strong as well, so we're all over this. I wouldn't say that's the reason we're confident we can accelerate, but it's certainly another, I guess, thought to put in the back. So, we'll accelerate.
John Roberts - UBS Securities LLC:
And then costs are up for caustic, chlorine, propylene derivatives. Is that a big part of the cost headwind that you're talking about in the release? Or is it just one other thing among a lot of things?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, I think caustic and propylene, in particular, caustic's up this year for us. It's a main raw material in our Institutional F&B businesses, in particular. We also have propylene, which is expected to peak in the second quarter as new capacity comes on, as we go forward. And I think propylene run-up was the surprise that we had early in this year versus expectations. Caustic, we expected to see go up, and it did go up.
John Roberts - UBS Securities LLC:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies. Please proceed with your questions.
Laurence Alexander - Jefferies LLC:
Good afternoon. So, two questions. One, can you give a little bit more detail on the retention issues you flagged with the technicians for the equipment repair services business? And secondly, with the run rate that you're seeing in the back half of this year, to get there, you flagged a bunch of sort of one-off-ish factors that you think will slip away and let the underlying momentum show up. As we're thinking about the bridge into 2018, do you think the back half is a good run rate? Or should some of these one-off lumpiness factors come back into the bridge?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, I'll do the second first question. No, I think the second half, it'd be a more realistic run rate model for what we would expect in 2018 in the first. I mean, the first had – the single largest impact is hedging, and hedging is going to account for literally like a 4.5 point with a 5-point drag on EPS, 5 percentage points, 500 basis points in the first quarter. It's going to be 4 in the second, so 4.5 for the first half all by itself. It does go away. It's simply – these were foreign hedges that we put on in a rising dollar environment. It's really not that there are huge negative costs in the first half. We're just comparing against a year-ago period, where you had very favorable contributions from the hedging activity as the dollar was rising. So, you got to go – we normalize, we look at our GP progression ex-hedge to understand really what's going on underneath, and it's all the stuff you would expect, which is why we're very quite confident in the second half. So, we do not expect next year to have year-on-year hedging impacts, simply because we aren't benefiting this year from them. So, there's nothing really to compare against. The others were sort of oddities, and normally you don't get this many stacked up, but a lot of it's good news. We're investing in new technologies for institutional solids. We have a lot of new business wins, where we have a lot of installs focused on a specific quarter, where we're not realizing the volume from those installs, but you're realizing the cost. We typically don't have this many stacked up at one time and in a couple quarter period. I don't mind it, but it does make GP look artificially low for a period of time, and we know that goes away. Based on our history, this is unusual. If it happened again, I would explain it again and be happy about it again. In terms of GCS, it's really not a retention change. Retention's always been a bit of a challenge there in the field workforce. We spend more than other people training our team. They get poached at times by competitors. There's not a change in retention of our employee base. What's changed is just how fast we've been able to add on new people to replace those that are leaving. And there, we got a little bit behind in Q4 and are catching up on Q1. I don't think this is going to be an ongoing challenge for the business. It's just a bit of a near-term challenge.
Laurence Alexander - Jefferies LLC:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of P.J. Juvekar with Citigroup. Please proceed with your questions.
P.J. Juvekar - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Yes. Hi. Good afternoon. Your QSR trends were a little slow this quarter compared to last year and some recent trends. Can you talk a little bit about that? A lot of new restaurant chains that are opening up and taking share away from old chains and just tell us how you're positioned with the new chains.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. No, I think our QSR business, I'm not worried about at all. You're right, the quarter was a little bit soft in terms of growth rate, I mean, but it's still growing at what five and change. But it's going to accelerate throughout the year. We've sold a bunch of business in that – in QSR. And we've rolled it out a lot of it, we're going to start seeing the volume coming in, in the second quarter, and we'll enjoy 100% of it kind of at run rate in the second half. So, it's just a timing issue. It's nothing fundamentally wrong or to worry about our QSR business.
P.J. Juvekar - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
And also, your Energy business, the peak was in 2014. Do you see that business going back to that level at some point? I'm not looking for a year or a date. Or is there something change structurally in that business, where customers are using less chemicals per barrel of oil or something like that? Is it all cyclical or you think there may be some structural change that has happened? Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. I don't think we've seen the peak sales and OI in our Energy business for all time by any stretch. So, yeah, I think ultimately we'll reach and I would expect to exceed those levels down the road. Has there been change in the industry? Yeah, I would say all kinds. And in some areas, yeah, it's more efficient, we're more efficient. It can take less chemical in some cases, but there are other applications that take more. The net story that we've always talked about, which is easy oil transitioning to harder-to-get oil is still fundamentally the driver and that has not changed. So, that market continues to become more attractive over time as exploration picks up, which really isn't this year, but we think more meaningfully in 2018 and really in 2019. They're going to have to go after the harder-to-find oil because the easy oil's gone and when they do that, the average, if you will, consumption of our technology per barrel will continue to rise and that's the fundamentals in the business. So, we plan on continuing to gain share. The market will recover. It's not going to be identical to the business that we had in 2014 because that industry continues to evolve and will continue to evolve, but I think we're in great shape to evolve with it and continue to increase our competitiveness.
P.J. Juvekar - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is coming from the line of Christopher Parkinson with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your questions.
Christopher S. Parkinson - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Great. Thank you. Can you just walk us through the recent improvements in Food & Beverage? And also whether or not you believe you'll see the full benefits of the strengthening North American sales team throughout the balance of this year? Or do you think that's all going to also be a theme in 2018 as well?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, look, I mean, several things. Yeah, I think F&B you saw acceleration. We expect continued improvement throughout the year as we go forward. So, we expect the second half to be stronger than the first half. The team has been investing in more corporate account head count, I think, wisely. That business has been successful over a long period of time, probably analysis the team did said hadn't been expanding the corporate accounting probably as fast as we've been expanding share and if we want to continue to have capacity there, we got to add to it which they've been doing. And I think it's already showing that it was the right move. So, I don't know, I remain – yeah, I would expect that business to be better this year, and knowing what we know now, I would say we should at least hold that growth rate moving into 2018.
Christopher S. Parkinson - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Great. And just very quickly on the Pest Elimination business, you mentioned you saw strong growth in North America and APAC, but can you just comment on the key puts and takes in Latin America and then Europe in both the short and long term? And also, just the overall longer-term view of that business, is that a segment which you'd consider doing M&A in, as well as any other initiatives? Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, well, we love the Pest business, and so absolutely, on your M&A question, and we've done M&A and we would be a happy acquirer of a good business at a reasonable price. It's the second part of that equation that's been hard to find recently. People have been paying, in our mind, too rich of multiples in pest. Pest is attractive for many reasons, but one of its real attractiveness is its return on invested capital. It doesn't require a lot of capital. The only way you screw that equation up is you pay too much for a business. Now you've got too much invested and you've lost the heart or the secret to that business, in a sense. So, we're going to be wise people as it comes to M&A. In terms of what's going on, it's really more a Europe story. Latin America's a relatively small business, and Europe is just sort of – you get paid as you serve. Our service calendar was a little out of whack in the first quarter. There's catch-up activity underway in the second quarter, and so I'm confident ultimately that all comes back around and I'm not really worried about the Pest business. I think those guys are doing the right things and they've got good momentum.
Christopher S. Parkinson - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Tim Mulrooney with William Blair. Please proceed with your questions.
Tim M. Mulrooney - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Yeah. Good morning. I know the drilling business was up double digits in the fourth quarter. How did that do in the first quarter?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. It was up double digits in the first quarter. I mean, grew faster, obviously, than in the fourth.
Tim M. Mulrooney - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Okay. Did the completion business, the other part of WellChem, did that follow suit in the first quarter? Is that continuing to improve as well, or is that piece of the business still in kind of a holding period?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, WellChem was up just north of 20% in the first quarter. We expect it to continue to accelerate based on our projection of what's going to happen in terms of rigs and rig activity.
Tim M. Mulrooney - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Got it. Thanks. And just one more, shifting gears to your Global Industrial margins. It looked like they took a step back in the first quarter, I think down 60 basis points on a fixed currency basis. Was that driven by the re-segmentation? Or just generally, what are the main puts and takes there?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. I would say the big noise in the Industrial business was hedge, particularly in the water business. If you get out – so in water, I think it was off 70 basis points, and 50 basis points of that was a hedge. So, that's the dominant story there. And that's a little bit just kind of one-time comparison. If you take it out, you start seeing the natural trajectory you would expect to see in our Industrial gross profit margin. They are getting pricing. Pricing accelerated in the first quarter for our Industrial businesses versus what they were able to get last year, so they're on track in terms of doing what they need to do to offset raws. Once the hedge comes off, which is after second quarter, I think you'll see a more natural view of their GP.
Tim M. Mulrooney - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Okay, got it. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Mike Harrison with Seaport Global. Please proceed with your questions.
Michael J. Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC:
Hi, good afternoon. Doug, this may be the first press release I've ever seen that referred to the Angolan kwanza as a component of the FX impact. Wanted to see if you could talk a little bit about within the Energy business, North America growing faster than international. How does that really affect the business? Is it really just where – in drilling and completion, where you guys have a significantly higher share within North America or does that extend to the production chemicals as well or the downstream piece? And then also curious about the margin impact of that. Is the international side higher margin than the North American side of Energy?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, there's not a significant gross profit difference one to the other. And so here's what's going on. I mean, you would see this in other Energy-related businesses. So, North America went into whatever you want to call that, a recession, clearly much earlier than the balance of the world, and they're coming out of it earlier than the other parts of the world. So, if you will, the Vs just aren't lined up, U.S. versus international. It's really driven by structure of the industry. Much of the international business or big hunks of it are owned by governments. It's used to pay their bills. So, when oil dropped, they actually worked to up their production. That works for a while, but without new CapEx, you can't keep at that pace forever. So you're starting to see that curtail and it will continue to curtail until they start drilling again. U.S. business dropped off dramatically in terms of its productivity when the oil price dropped because it's more privately owned, and so it reacts to the market and doesn't chase lower-margin business with more dollars, which other parts of the world will. But now you're seeing it rebound as the oil price rebounds and they're starting to chase the opportunity. The big picture in the oil market, I would say, is that you're starting to see a rebalance of supply and demand. So, demand this year is projected to be 1.2% growth, and production right now in the first quarter was down 0.4%. So, that's the stuff that everybody needed to see. We're going to see oil bounce around, we always thought, we talked $45 to $55. We didn't expect a big recovery this year in terms of oil price. We think that's more a 2018 story. We also don't see oil falling off a cliff either. And so I think there's slow improvement in activity, which we're seeing is – what we're going to continue to see until we start seeing prices more in the 60s and north, and there's a great deal of confidence that that's really going to stay. When you see that, I think you're going to see a big upturn in activity, and that's when you're going to see even faster growth than we're projecting now for our business. Good news is, though, our Energy business, it's no longer a drag on the business. I think it'd be minorly accretive, but just being neutral is a significant improvement over the last two years and going forward, this business can be a very strong piece of our growth story.
Michael J. Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC:
All right. And then turning over to the Institutional division, I was wondering if you could comment on the impact of the travel ban as well as the strong dollar on the hospitality industry and the tourism industry in North America.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, I don't – I would say this. Room demand isn't – it slowed a bit in North America. It was better in Europe and parts around the world, so I just don't think the lodging isn't really the story. I really think it's what we talked about earlier. What we saw that was unusual and correlates with sort of what we see in our metrics was consumption was down in U.S. restaurants. It wasn't negative, it was just much slower growth than we've seen in the past. And that's a hole or volume that we thought we were going to see that we didn't see, but we believe it's overcome-able by getting after and stepping on new business activity, which the team's done. And I would just say this, our U.S. Institutional team is very strong, they're very good when focused and they're very focused.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Hamzah Mazari with Macquarie. Please proceed with your questions.
Hamzah Mazari - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Yes. Thank you. The first question is just around M&A. Given some of the larger assets have changed hands already, maybe just refresh us on your ability or appetite to do a larger deal versus sort of return of cash at this stage.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, on our appetite, we'd be very comfortable doing a deal of size as long as we feel it's going to be a good deal for us. The story about the asset, just as when is quite complicated. So, I would just say that doesn't change my view. I think I even said a year ago, I'd be surprised if we do a big deal in the very near term and quite surprised if we don't do one over the next five, six years. I think that my view still holds there. So, our appetite isn't diminished at all. I think we just go in eyes wide open and try to fully understand what the risks are and the challenges are in any deal and as a consequence, what price makes sense.
Hamzah Mazari - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Great. And just a follow-up, you mentioned earnings were back-end loaded. Obviously, there's a lag in terms of your pricing. Could you just remind us, how many of your contracts are cost-plus? Is there a greater lag on pricing in certain segments or business lines versus others? Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Really in Energy, it's about 30%. Water's just a little south of that in terms of percent. Those are where we have the big cost-plus contracts, there's a few others spattered across the other segments, but they're not significant. But, yeah, those will always lag. I mean, they lag going down, and they lag going up simply because you've got to realize the cost in your business before you're going to be – before you're able to price for them.
Hamzah Mazari - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Dmitry Silversteyn with Longbow Research. Please proceed with your questions.
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC:
Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. A lot of the questions have been answered, but let me just follow up on the strength that you guys are seeing in Paper and textile, particularly Paper, the market that I know you weren't very enamored with when you bought Nalco. But since they've been doing better and picking up momentum over the last several quarters, so I'm just wondering if it's just better execution or if the market's coming back and kind of what you're feeling about that business these days.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, since all my prior stance seems to have worked, I'm going to tell you I'm still not enamored with the business because it seems to spur them on. Now I would say that's not really – where we were on that is, I just said as a stand-alone, we probably wouldn't have bought it. But as a business that came along, it was a pretty darn good business in many respects. We haven't changed our feeling on it. It's got a great team, and I think the team has gotten better. So, how are they growing it? It's called the old-fashioned way. New business, they've had new technology. They're gaining share, they're doing smart things in terms of getting their portfolio to be more focused on where you see growth in that industry like tissue, towel and boxes versus newsprint and other materials, so those have been smart moves. They don't happen overnight, so it's been an ongoing effort. So, yeah, you've seen sales acceleration. As they keep selling new business, they're going to keep seeing sales acceleration. And I think they've managed the challenges successfully. So, I don't – that's the story there. Textile is not that fundamentally different. If you sell new business, good things happen, and if you don't, they don't.
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC:
The restaurant comment you made about sort of foot traffic not coming back as strongly or being maybe not down, but certainly slower. We've heard some version of that, not just from you, but from other industry participants. Going back to really the recession, if not all the way back to 9/11, is there a secular trend here that people are just not eating out as much around the world? And should we start thinking about this industry as basically being a flattish industry, where any growth you guys get is a bonus or not?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, I mean, same-store sales, look, I don't think is the singular metric that drives our business – or, excuse me, traffic. Traffic's been down, I think, every year since 2008. I keep asking the team, is there one person left to walk into our restaurant based on these metrics. Clearly, if you look at the sales in that industry, they were also up over most of those years. And yeah, there are changes going on in that industry. They're not dramatic. I don't think they're going to hit huge inflection points, but we watch them. So, certainly there's higher percent of takeout than there was 10 years ago. I'd expect in 10 years, there'll be even a higher takeout than there is right now. So, you see some of these changes over time. With that said, the challenges in that industry simultaneously continue to increase. People continue to get into that business, start new concepts, grow their business, food safety, clean labels, i.e., organic food without additives and the like. All these things are also impacting that business and our customers, and our ability in food safety is more important even today than it was 5 years ago and 10 years ago. So, I guess – I think when I take all of the shifts that are going on in that industry and net it out, it's still quite an attractive market for us, both in the U.S. and around the world. And we have significant share possibilities, not only in the U.S., but in particular, around the world, that we continue to get after.
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC:
Last question, sort of, bookkeeping question, what should be the tax – what's a good tax rate assumption for you guys for the year? Is it the 25% that you did in this quarter?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. I think we've said 24% to 25%.
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC:
24% to 25%. Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Andy Wittmann with Robert W. Baird. Please proceed with your questions.
Andrew John Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
Great. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to ask on Energy, in particular, around the pricing, clearly you guys have had to concede a little bit of price and I think that was even a bit of a factor in 1Q. Doug, I was just wondering, when the price comps and the healthier customers get to the point where that could inflect at least neutral, if not positive, is that part of your forecast for the rest of this year when you talk about the flat – the top line being flat to up modestly?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yes. So, last year, we talked, we had probably lost about 3 points of top line to price in that business. And it started getting modestly better as we went throughout the year last year. We saw continued improvement in the first quarter. Second half, I would say it would be neutral to positive on price.
Andrew John Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
Interesting. And then just regarding the double-digit increases on the drilling side of the business, there's just been this trend in the industry to make kind of the fracked wells, in particular, in North America consume more sand and make them much more efficient than they've been even a year or two ago. Does the same go for chemical? Are you – is your double-digit increases in your drilling revenues driven by the number of wells or the amount of chemical that's consumed by the new technologies being used in the wells?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. I would say, right now, it's more a reflection of rig count increase and activity increase. Yeah. I would say several things. I mean, what we've been working on products and programs and have them, that reduces the need for companies conducting a frac in terms of how much water they need, how much sand they need, et cetera, to conduct this. Less is better. And we'd rather cannibalize ourselves than get cannibalized. Some instances, it takes less chemical, and there are other applications where it would take more of our product to get that same result. I think, over time, I mean, this kind of shifting of how much technology it takes to get an end result, I think, if you look over any long period of time, it typically gets more efficient. We would expect that to continue to be true, but challenges continue to grow. And so the need for technology evolves. So, I had somebody try to say that fracking's going to disappear, and I do not think that's the way to think about it. It's going to continue to evolve and change, but there are plenty of opportunities for us to introduce new programs that bring great benefit to those conducting a frac that's going to represent new opportunity for us even as others may dissipate slightly.
Andrew John Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Shlomo Rosenbaum with Stifel. Please proceed with your questions.
Shlomo Rosenbaum - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Hi. Thank you. Most of my questions have been answered. I just have a couple nits I want to ask about. Doug, how do you feel about the organic growth in the Healthcare business? It's definitely on a better trajectory than it's been prior to this Anios acquisition. How do you feel about the existing business and the ability to improve the growth over there over the next several years?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, well, Healthcare, yeah, clearly has improved. I mean, it's a 5% underlying organic rate, if you peel out Anios and the other. And, look, I think the team's doing a very good job. I mean they went through and are doing a lot of integration work that started even before, obviously, the close of Anios. They continue to drive and accelerate their underlying business. So, the work that we did and the work that team did around getting clarity around the program, clarity around the message for customers, adding resources where they needed them, we've continued to add additional talent into that team and it's paying dividends. So, where am I? Yeah, I'm proud that the team's been able to build this up to 5%. And then the other side of me is greedy, and I think that team's capable of doing even more, and it's only because I think they're great. So, 5% is good, 7% is better, that's our focus.
Shlomo Rosenbaum - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay. And just a follow-up, where does the Swisher integration stand? We're still calling out costs for the integration and stuff on that a little while after I would have expected.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, us too. It took us longer to exit the hygiene business than we had planned, which delayed our exit from a number of facilities because we had to continue to operate it until we could move it. And so it was a couple quarters after we had thought we were going to be able to move it. So, that delayed a number of things. That's why you're seeing some of the charges come through now versus, say, third quarter of last year, et cetera. In total, I think the Swisher noise is really going to be out of the business come third quarter as we go through. So, then it's just going to be a completely natural part. The exiting and the comparison with hygiene and all the other stuff will be out of the base.
Shlomo Rosenbaum - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Rosemarie Morbelli with Gabelli & Company. Please proceed with your questions.
Rosemarie Jeanne Morbelli - G.research LLC:
Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. Doug, I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about the different categories in Food & Beverage, mostly trends that you see in dairy, in farms, in protein. Can you help me understand what is happening there?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, the most significant probably underlying change would be in dairy. Clearly, dairy was under a lot of pressure. The market's improved somewhat. I don't know that all dairy producers would call it a victory yet, but it certainly helps as we've gone through. Food continues to be pressured by consolidation. There's a lot of, obviously, big headline acquisitions that have been made in that industry. Some others that seem to be contemplated, but not consummated. And brewery beverage is strong and that's more a continuing story. So, the inflection one would be mostly in our dairy business.
Rosemarie Jeanne Morbelli - G.research LLC:
Do you see that decline in dairy being impacted by the fact that there is negative advertisement, justifyingly so, about cow's milk? It's not supposed to be good for you. Is that having an impact?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
I don't – you know what, I don't believe so. I honestly haven't seen those advertisements, but of course, I live in a state that borders Wisconsin, so we wouldn't likely be airing them in this market. So, anyway, no, I would say if anything dairy has gotten better because it was so depressed. I have not seen any impact from the advertising you talked about.
Rosemarie Jeanne Morbelli - G.research LLC:
Okay. And then lastly, you said that the world of energy has changed a lot since 2014 and you expect that it will become substantially bigger over time. How about the margin? Has the change affected the margins in one direction or another?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
I don't think we feel that our ability to earn the type of margins that we were earning or targeted has changed. So, the margins have been most impacted near term just by loss of volume on a fixed overhead base, particularly in plants. And so I think as this business comes back, which we expect it to, as we continue to roll out technology and the needs for technology continue to grow as old oil becomes new oil, which is harder oil and needs more technology, we think we'll continue to see margin expansion. Now, that's all predicated on us being a great value-added supplier to our customers. Only reason people are going to pay margin to us is if they get great value, and I think our team understands that. Stuff we have on the drawing board, we are quite pleased with. Stuff that we're launching, we think has got great runway. So, I mean, we remain bullish about this business.
Rosemarie Jeanne Morbelli - G.research LLC:
Okay, great. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Robert Koort with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.
Christopher Evans - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Hi, Doug. This is Chris Evans on for Bob. I was wondering if you could describe some of the strategic rationale for carving out the Life Sciences division. Earlier you gave some pretty favorable organic growth estimates. I was just wondering if you could also add in maybe some of the industry structures, the competitors you'll be going against and maybe your thoughts on inorganic opportunities in that new sub-segment.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, the reason we broke it out is it creates focus. So, previously, we've been serving the Life Sciences industry in part from the F&B business and in part from the Healthcare business. And both were doing a good job with the tools at hand, but neither had a complete set of tools. So, if anything, once we decided to do it, we wondered why it took us so long. That's a shot at myself. So, getting focused, I mean, think the Kay business going after QSR, textile, going after textile, we have many examples of this. That's how we succeed. So, now we've got a freestanding business. It was a significant investment last year and we're still paying some of the incremental investment this year in the first half before we fully lap it. And the second, has enabled us to have dedicated corporate account teams, dedicated marketing teams, dedicated corporate account finance teams to really understand how to develop and position programs to specifically meet this industry's need. The structure is multinationals, which is what we like, fragmented competitive set, which is what we like. So, by and large, what we're competing against is a lot of regional folks who are offering services to this industry. And so our ability to put together a global program we believe will give us the same kind of advantage here that it does in other industries we serve because certainly the pharma need for consistency, you might imagine, would be fairly high in areas that we're serving. So, I don't know if that helps give you color. Big business, plenty of opportunity. We can grow without doing M&A. If we see M&A that works, we'll certainly be quite open to it.
Christopher Evans - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
That's great. And then just you cited higher delivered cost across to your segments. I was wondering if you could give a little bit more color on this specific breakdown on 1Q and maybe the cadence of expectations, how you'd plan to address those for the remainder of the year.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. I think if you look at – it's kind of a combination of just underlying commodity costs starting to rise and then transaction costs and foreign currency that – because a lot of these are U.S. dollar denominated, so if I'm buying them in reals, et cetera, I got to pay a higher price given the devaluation over time. We see that rising, ironically peaking around the second quarter. Part of this is the propylene conversation we had earlier, but still being somewhat a year-on-year drag in three and four, which is not at the same level, but overcome by pricing. And I talked earlier that we have pricing traction. Pricing is never easy. We're getting it. Institutional, I think was ahead on ramping up its pricing activity last year, trying to get in front of the caustic moves and some of the other stuff they knew was coming. And you see the Industrial businesses now accelerating their pricing activity, which they need to do, given the increased raw materials facing them. So, I guess, we're confident we're going to end up with some daylight between the costs we realize incremental on raws and FX related to raws and the pricing that we're going to get.
Christopher Evans - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our final question today is from the line of Dan Dolev with Instinet. Please go ahead with your questions.
Dan Dolev - Instinet LLC:
Hey, thanks for taking my question. Can you talk a little bit about, is there any chance that some of the weakness in Institutional could be because of a tougher competitive environment? I mean, specifically, we know at least some companies that used to be traditionally in other businesses like uniform rental are starting to make a bigger push into like hygiene and some of your legacy product. Can you maybe talk about that competitive environment? Thanks.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, I guess – no, I would not say – I mean, look, we do a lot of analysis on our business to understand retention, new business, acquisition and sort of current customer consumption. Retention really – I mean, if you look at our historic retention rates, I mean, we're under – we're better retention rates than we've been historically in that business. So, if it was competitive activity, you would see it in worsening retention rates, and that's just not what we're seeing as really the story. The big dip is in kind of same-store consumption. It's not a loss of product placements, if you will, in those units. It's a loss of consumption across those products. And that's the story. So, we aren't – we don't believe that we're infallible or unbeatable or anything else, we pay a lot of attention to competition. I just don't think that's the story.
Dan Dolev - Instinet LLC:
But do you even see that traditional uniform rental competitor in – when you compete for business, or are they not in the same categories?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, I don't know that that's really a huge piece of emphasis for them, to be quite honest. I mean, they just made a large acquisition. They've been quite successful in the businesses they're in. I just – I don't know that that's really an avenue they're going. I don't know that it lends itself. I mean, that's a little bit – they're a much better executor, I would say. They're a good company, does a very good job in the businesses they're in, but it's hard to take people in one set of business and make them kitchen hygiene people just because they're in the back of the restaurant. That was Swisher's play. It wasn't very successful, although I grant you, and I think the company you're talking about is a much better executor.
Dan Dolev - Instinet LLC:
I agree with that. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. At this time, I will turn the floor back to Mike Monahan for closing remarks.
Michael J. Monahan - Ecolab, Inc.:
Thank you. That wraps up our first quarter conference call. This conference call and the associated discussion to slides will be available for replay on our website. Thank you for your time and participation. Our best wishes for the rest of the day.
Operator:
Thank you. This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.
Executives:
Michael J. Monahan - Ecolab, Inc. Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc. Daniel J. Schmechel - Ecolab, Inc.
Analysts:
Gary Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC John Salvatore Quealy - Canaccord Genuity, Inc. David E. Ridley-Lane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Manav Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc. John Roberts - UBS Securities LLC Shlomo Rosenbaum - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc. Laurence Alexander - Jefferies LLC David I. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC Jeffrey J. Zekauskas - JPMorgan Securities LLC Tim M. Mulrooney - William Blair & Co. LLC Michael Joseph Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC Hamzah Mazari - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc. Scott Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. Andrew John Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. Rosemarie Jeanne Morbelli - Gabelli & Company Yiqin Gao - Nationwide Insurance Co.
Operator:
Greetings and welcome to the Ecolab's fourth quarter 2016 earnings release conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host Mike Monahan, Senior Vice President, External Communications. Mr. Monahan, you may now begin.
Michael J. Monahan - Ecolab, Inc.:
Thank you. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Ecolab's fourth quarter conference call. With me today is Doug Baker, Ecolab's Chairman and CEO; and Dan Schmechel, our CFO. A discussion of our results along with our earnings release and the slides referencing this quarter's results and our outlook are available on the Ecolab's website at ecolab.com/investor. Please take a moment to read the cautionary statements on these materials stating that this teleconference, the discussion and the slides include estimates of future performance. These are forward-looking statements and actual results could differ materially from those projected. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are described in the section of our most recent Form 10-K under Item 1A, Risk Factors, and in our posted materials. We also refer you to the supplemental diluted earnings per share information in the release. Starting with a brief overview of the quarter, continued attractive new business gains and new product introductions drove solid acquisition-adjusted fixed currency growth in our Institutional, Industrial and Other segments during the fourth quarter. These were offset by a moderating underlying sales decline in the Energy segment, though previously discussed one-time sales impacts in both this and last year resulted in a wider posted decrease for that business. Product innovation and ongoing cost efficiency work led the total company's adjusted fixed currency operating margin expansion, more than offsetting the impact of soft economies, challenging end markets and continued currency headwinds. These drove the fourth quarter's 2% adjusted earnings per share increase, which includes a 2 percentage point currency translation headwind. Moving to some highlights from the quarter and as discussed in our press release, consolidated acquisition-adjusted fixed currency sales for Institutional, Industrial and Other segments grew 4%, but were offset by lower Energy sales period. Regional fixed currency sales growth was led by Latin America. Reported operating margins increased 710 basis points. Adjusted fixed currency operating margins expanded 20 basis points, as continued sales growth from our Institutional, Industrial and Other segments as well as pricing and cost efficiencies offset lower Energy results. In 2016's difficult operating environment, we focused on driving new business gains by helping customers to lower their costs. We used our industry-leading product innovation and service strengths to help customers achieve the best results and lowest operating costs and, through these, aggressively drive new account gains across all of our segments. We expect 2017's external environment to show continued sluggish economic growth, higher delivered product costs, reduced but still unfavorable currency translation effects and gradually improving fundamentals in the energy markets. We will again work aggressively to drive our growth, employing the same fundamental approach, win new business using our innovative new products and a sharp focus on sales execution, and along with pricing and cost efficiencies, grow our top and bottom lines at improved rates. We look for strong earnings growth in 2017, significantly outperforming the headwinds. We look for a better year-on-year acquisition-adjusted fixed currency growth in our Institutional, Industrial, and Other segments, as they once again work aggressively to outpace their markets, leveraging investments we have made to further improve sales and service force effectiveness and profitability. We expect Energy to be modestly accretive to sales and earnings growth, as it benefits from a more stable market. We believe our actions will lead to better growth and stronger comparisons in the second half of the year versus the first half for Ecolab in 2017 with forecasted adjusted diluted earnings per share in the $4.70 to $4.90 range this year, increasing 8% to 12% including unfavorable $0.07 per share or 2 percentage point currency impact to earnings. In summary, despite a very challenging global, economic, and market environment, we expect to deliver strong adjusted diluted EPS growth in 2017. And now, here's Doug Baker with some comments.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Thank you, Mike. So I'm just going to touch on first the fourth quarter and then thoughts on 2017. So first, Q4, we had, going into the quarter, forecast that our Institutional, Industrial, and Other businesses would see better Q4 sales acceleration than Q3 and that our Energy business would deliver roughly the same sales and OI in Q4 as it did in Q3. Our Energy forecast turned out to be spot on. Its business is stabilized in the top line and improved on the bottom line with operating income up 45% in the second half versus the first half on similar sales. Our Institutional, Industrial, and Other businesses did accelerate, but not as much as anticipated in Q4. Sales grew 50 basis points faster, but we projected a little north of 100 basis points. The lower acceleration plus a negative $0.01 of FX versus our forecast, and it was a rounding $0.01, drove the delta versus the midpoint of our Q4 range or $0.03. Underneath, the business is fairly solid with improvements in both industrial and institutional sectors, and our heavy up investments in healthcare and Life Sciences are gaining traction. Finally, even as we recognized some softness in the fourth quarter, we purposely chose to stay the course on our investments and inventory reduction plans given our view moving into 2017. So let's talk this year. Importantly, we moved into the year with solid fundamentals and lessening headwinds. We expect to deliver double-digit adjusted EPS growth as indicated by the midpoint of our range. The forecast we have is built on the following assumptions
Michael J. Monahan - Ecolab, Inc.:
Thanks. That concludes our formal remarks. A final note before we start Q&A. We plan to hold our annual tour of our booth at the National Restaurant Association Show in Chicago on Monday, May 22. Looking further ahead, we also plan to hold our 2017 Investor Day in St. Paul on Thursday, September 7. If you have any questions, please contact my office. Operator, please begin the question-and-answer period.
Operator:
Thank you. Our first question is from the line of Gary Bisbee with RBC. Please go ahead with your questions.
Gary Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Hey, guys. Good afternoon. I guess maybe I'll just start out with the Energy business. A two-part question. The energy industry CapEx outlook calls for a sharp rebound in U.S. shale, but pretty lackluster outside of that. Given you make more money in that business, I guess I just wanted to get a sense for how you're thinking about your Energy business? And the second part more specifically, your prepared remarks said that drilling fluids were doing well but that the well completion didn't as much. Is there any reason that would continue, or was that something more specific to this quarter? Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
We think the well completion will build throughout the year and start coming around even in this quarter particularly in North America. Yeah, I mean I think there're two energy markets right now. North America is clearly turning and the rest of the world has not yet turned and probably we won't expect to see a turn there until the second half of this year. But with that said, I think our view on the Energy business is clearly more favorable than the last couple of years. We view that we think it will be minorly accretive both on a top line basis and a bottom line basis for the year. It's going to show kind of steady improvement on the top line throughout the year. The first quarter, we would expect sales to be slightly under first quarter of last year, but have positive OI. And the real question for us, we do not forecast any big upturn occurring in 2017. We think that's more a 2018 story. And we'll have to see how we plan to build some resources moving into 2018 at the end of the year. But that's going to be a story we'll talk about in subsequent quarters. Right now, I would say we're fairly – we view this year as sort of a transition year in the Energy business, but it's certainly not going to be a drag like it has been the last two years.
Gary Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Great. And then to follow up just quickly, how are you planning or how did you fund the recent acquisition in Europe? And any color you'd provide on how we should think about modeling the profitability of that or growth of that asset, any thoughts there. Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Dan Schmechel happens to be here. Why don't you answer that, Dan?
Daniel J. Schmechel - Ecolab, Inc.:
Sure. So given what we're buying here, our European assets, our intent is to fund it effectively in the European debt market, where the rates are currently very attractive.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of John Quealy with Canaccord Genuity. Please proceed with your question.
John Salvatore Quealy - Canaccord Genuity, Inc.:
Hi, good afternoon. First question, can you talk a little bit about inflationary pressures across the business? And how should we think about the lag between any price gains and any raw material pressures that you have? How do we think about that by segment?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
We would expect that you're going to see a change. We already started to see it in the fourth quarter in some of the businesses. The price lag usually is several quarters for us. And we say within the first 12 months we typically recover the absolute dollar of the inflation in raw materials through pricing, but we don't recover the margin usually for another year. It just takes a while. We tend to try to go through and do this on a more smooth basis. You've got, though, in certain businesses, Water and Energy in particular, a number of cost-plus contracts. Those usually always lag a quarter or two both on the down and on the up as we go through, and those are already pre-negotiated changes, and that represents often about 25% of their business. So I think what you would expect to see this year is we're going to have some margin pressure from inflation in the first couple of quarters. That's both raw material increases and the FX hedges unwinding, but it's going to be offset by pricing as you move into quarters three and four, and that's pretty much across the board.
John Salvatore Quealy - Canaccord Genuity, Inc.:
Okay, thank you. And then on the follow-up, Healthcare posted another good organic gain, and I think this is a couple of quarters in a row of better than corporate growth there. Can you talk a little bit about what's going on in your outlook there for 2017? Thank you, folks.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Healthcare, as we've been talking, we felt good about the plans and the progress we have made in Healthcare, and it always takes a few quarters to show up. But a couple of things, we had a 6% quarter in Q4 in terms of Healthcare growth. It was really driven. We have created two business units in Healthcare, if you will. There's the acute care, still focused on hospitals principally. We also have a Life Sciences business unit. The acute care has continued to accelerate. It did a 4% in Q4 and the Life Sciences did 14%. And moving into Q1, we would expect the acute care to accelerate from 4% to 6% – 5% or 6%, and the Life Sciences is going to be around 14% again or mid-teens. So both sides of that business are doing, I would say, better and they've got very good traction on both sides. And it's driven the old-fashioned way, by great focus on new business activity and leveraging innovation to drive new business. So for the year, we have a fairly bullish outlook, very similar to first quarter. That's how we see the year progressing.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from the line of David Ridley-Lane with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please proceed with your questions.
David E. Ridley-Lane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Sure, so over the last couple of years, the Water segment has been dragged by weak results in the mining industry in particular. When you look out to 2017, do you think you'll mostly have lapped that, and what are your growth expectations for that business?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
I'll address mining first. I think mining improved dramatically throughout the year, but it was still down mid-single digits in the fourth quarter. We would expect mining to probably trip into positive territory, either Q1 or Q2 latest, as we go through this year. If you look at Water in total, I think the Water story next year we think is going to be a – it will be a significant improvement. There's a lot of things that have been going on in the Water business that we feel very good about. It always takes a couple of quarters. But the fundamental story there is strong new business activity, strong innovation activity, and 2017 is just fundamentally a better market for Water than 2016, not even expecting turnarounds in a number of industries. But stabilization in mining and steel and a number of other heavy industries, it will do just fine. The Light business, which has not been impacted by what I would call segment softness, grew 7% in the fourth quarter, and we expect similar-type results next year.
David E. Ridley-Lane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
And then on the recent acquisition of Laboratoires Anios, should we think about the operating margins as similar to Ecolab's legacy European segment, or are they closer to the Global Institutional segment margins?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
They're closer. They're somewhere in between, but closer to the Institutional margins than they are certainly to the average European margins. So it was an attractive business from a profitability standpoint, innovation standpoint, positioning standpoint, so we're quite happy that we were able to close on that business.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Manav Patnaik with Barclays. Please proceed with your questions.
Manav Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Thank you. Good afternoon. I just wanted to – your guidance for 2017 calls for more Ecolab-like growth, I guess, and I think rough math would suggest you're probably still looking for somewhere short of mid-single digits, maybe just around then. I was just wondering. What does it take or what do you need to get to those 6% to 8% type targets you've always set out for the longer term?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
I think from a top line standpoint, we need all businesses moving, and so Energy this year will be, as we said, modestly accretive on the top line, but certainly not – we don't think it will be growing into the 6% to 8% for the full year simply because you're starting with a minor hole in first quarter as you go in. And we are not predicting a dramatic recovery in that business globally in 2017. We think it's in front of us. But certainly the top line this year will be positive that we have enough I think sales growth to overcome what we predict will be a fairly modest negative from currency, and I think you'll see our overall business improve and perform. In our Institutional, Industrial, and Other businesses this year, the combined, we expect our results in 2017 to be more favorable than 2016 from a top line standpoint too. So these businesses are all moving in the right direction. And I would expect next year I think you'll see a normal top line type performance because energy will be in a more favorable market.
Manav Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Got it, okay. And then I know there's a lot of moving pieces with obviously the new administration, but I was hoping you could give us some color on maybe what the moving parts would be for your business in terms of your supply chain with respect to the border tax proposals and so forth. Any color there would be helpful.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
One, I think none of us know ultimately what a tax proposal will look like, and there's a lot of work being done obviously in DC. Let's say the Brady Plan with the border adjustability provision was passed. It would be favorable for us. We don't take any solace in that because fundamentally we don't think that's ultimately what's going to probably get through, but who knows? I think the bigger question is what's its impact on the overall economy and many of our customers which is also a big concern for us and maybe even a bigger concern. And so we're also quite hopeful that we're able to get something done on corporate tax. We'd like a lot of the provisions in what I'll call the Brady proposal. I'm not totally comfortable with the border adjustability just as a big, big bet on a big piece of our economy and nobody knows exactly how it plays out and that seems to us unwarranted because the other parts of the proposal, we think, are almost guaranteed wins. So we have to let it play out. If it did pass exactly like it is, our tax rate would likely go down.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of John Roberts with UBS. Please proceed with your questions.
John Roberts - UBS Securities LLC:
Thank you. Doug, Food & Beverage right after the Nalco deal was one of the higher growth areas because of the synergies. It's become one of the lower growth areas recently. Have we just lapped the opportunities or is there a way to get that business growing faster again?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. I think we believe F&B is going to grow faster in 2017 than 2016 for two reasons. One, it had a very steady, successful new business campaign. They certainty were in markets this year that were impacted. I mean, dairy has been a tough market, agri has been a tough market and you also have just a lot of consolidations going on, some that are behind us, but we'll see what the future holds. Clearly, the dairy and agri businesses, if nothing else, are annualizing and they're no longer declining. So we think the environment in 2017 is just more favorable than 2016 period for that business. So we would expect the innovation and new business work to shine through in a more effective way. So we see F&B accelerating in 2017 versus 2016.
John Roberts - UBS Securities LLC:
And then you've got a major competitor in both the water area and the cleaning chemical areas in play right now. Should we expect Ecolab's M&A activity to be relatively subdued until those two other transactions clear the market?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Not necessarily. I don't think they're going to impact our M&A view going forward. So, what would impact that is, are they good deals.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Shlomo Rosenbaum with Stifel. Please proceed with your questions.
Shlomo Rosenbaum - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. Hey, Doug, Paper is doing just way better than we certainly expected when you bought the original Nalco business and a 5% growth. I was wondering if you could just talk about what's going on over there underlying, are we at kind of a new normal over here, what kind of growth to expect, does it look like it's more core than it used to look like a few years ago? And then I have a follow-up after that.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
I've always been pretty clear on Paper that we weren't going to be the consolidator, but we likely weren't going to be the divestiture either on that property. And we've always said that that business has got a very good team, good innovation, capabilities. It's always done fairly well. We have built EBITDA margins in that business handily since we acquired it and it's had a very steady top line growth trajectory even in a difficult environment. So, what's going on in Paper, yeah, I mean our terminal value there is in a 5% growth, I'll say that. But we would expect 2017 to be in the 3% to 4% range versus the historic 2% to 3%. I think the team's finding its legs. It's done a good job, continuing to improve the, sort of, customer portfolio and keep focusing where you would expect to see growth in Paper moving forward, and they've got strong innovation pipeline, so I think the team's done a very good job. They've improved that business, so it's sustainable. But we aren't predicting 5% growth going forward.
Shlomo Rosenbaum - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay, great. And just I want to follow up on a note on the technician shortage in Equipment Care. Are you seeing just from other business units also like wage inflation or a tougher hiring environment and have you seen kind of that step up in the last several quarters, and if so, how are you thinking about that in terms of just margins and how you attack something like that at this point in time.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
I'd say it's very specific geographically, but certainly, I mean, if you take U.S., yeah, there are certain markets where we've clearly seen wage inflation driven by the low unemployment, I mean, including our headquarter market. So we're in a market here that's been perennially around a little north of 3% unemployment, but we've lived through this for many years in a sense and certainly we've seen wage inflation driven the old-fashioned way via the market, and how do we deal with it? Like we deal with all other inflationary items. I mean we've got to go price forward. And you brought up kitchen equipment repair. That business has successfully recovered all inflationary pressures. It certainly improved profitability handily even with those pressures in 2016 and we expect it's equipped to do that going forward as are our other businesses. So I don't think this is going to be something that we proactively talk about moving forward as one of the real key pressures on the business. We think it's a pressure we can manage.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies. Please proceed with your questions.
Laurence Alexander - Jefferies LLC:
Good afternoon. Can you give an update on how you're thinking about growth in Europe and whether it will be enough to sort of get back on the 100 basis points of margin expansion track?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, I mean for the year last year, we met our 100 basis point objective either just looking at legacy or if you look at total Europe and include other businesses. And so I don't think we have to get back on there. I think cumulative now in the legacy businesses, we've done 650 basis points over six years, so that's doing what we said we would do, and we anticipate that we will be able to accomplish that again in 2017. But your point's fair. You need a – we need top line movement to do that, so obviously driving that kind of success in a negative sales growth environment would be much harder. We would expect – we will continue to have top line growth there, but we would expect 2017 to be more modest than 2016 in Europe, simply because we anticipate we'll have a slow start there.
Laurence Alexander - Jefferies LLC:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your questions.
David I. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Thank you. Doug, just on Institutional, how do you characterize the demand trends in that business right now and what are you looking forward for growth in that business in 2017?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
In total, I think Institutional is going to have a similar year in 2017 in total as it did in 2016, which is very solid year. It's going to be probably a flip in terms of stronger second half in 2017 versus first half as we go. Demand profile is good. I mean I would say foodservice trends globally remain fairly strong. Lodging remains fairly strong in that business. Obviously, we have a very strong business in the United States. And if you cut through all the noise and there's like a Swisher drag in there and all the rest. That business was a 6% growth business in Q4 and we expect similar in Q1. So it's doing quite well, and that's all we expect moving forward. In 2017, you're going to be going against a very strong base in the first half and an easier base, if you will, comps in the second half. So, that's going to have influence and also on a margin standpoint, they're going to have some cost-to-goods pressure and hedging effects in the first half that they'll overcome through pricing. And we expect more margin expansion in the second half than in the first half in that business. But that's not an unsimilar story to other sectors we're dealing with. That business is doing just fine.
David I. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Very good. And just on Diversity, Doug, are you seeing any benefits or are you taking advantage of any of the distractions at Diversity during their sales process?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
We've been I would say over the years in a number of instances we've had situations where competitors go through the distraction of either a large acquisition and/or being sold or bought or whatever you want to call it. In all cases, we do view that as an opportunity, and we try not to miss those opportunities as we move forward. We think the stability that we've had as a business in terms of ownership, management focus, and the rest has been a real advantage for us. And we try to make that known how that advantage plays out for customers' benefit, and certainly we'll continue to do that.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Dmitry Silversteyn with Longbow Research. Please proceed with your questions.
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC:
Good afternoon. A lot of my questions have been answered already, but thank you for taking my call, a quick question on the comments that you made regarding the strength that you've seen in your revenues in Latin America in the fourth quarter. Was that just a question of easier comps or foreign exchange or just the business efforts that you've had in the area or the economy is coming back? Can you provide a little bit more color on what's driving the Latin American strength?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
I think there are a couple of things. If you look at the growth, 60% of it is pricing. You've got pretty significant inflation going on in that market as a consequence of devaluing currencies. And we've worked hard to make sure that we're recovering the inflation that that drives via pricing, and so that's clearly a big piece of the sales growth. But then the remaining 40% or 4 points is volume. And I would say those economies aren't great, but we've still been able to capture new business successfully and retain business successfully, which is why we're also seeing volume growth in addition to the pricing growth. So I think we'll continue to do well. We've got a very, very good Latin America team. They have performed year in and year out over a long period of time, and we expect more from them and the same type of results going forward.
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC:
Okay, thank you. And then the other question, actually you've touched on the trends in Paper and Food & Beverage, but another smaller segment in Industrial that's doing well for you recently is textile care, and obviously that's also not been a segment where you've been focusing on growth, I guess, would be the best way to put it. So can you talk a little bit about what's changing, if anything, in the market that's allowing this segment to all of a sudden start posting mid-single-digit growth versus very low-single digits that we've become accustomed to in the previous years?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
First, I'd say, Dmitry, in all cases if we're in a business, we're in it to win and we're in it to drive growth, period. Otherwise, you shouldn't own the thing. And so the expectations of textile, paper, any business that we have are the same, which is we're going to continue to grow share, we're going to continue to grow margins, and we're going to do them simultaneously as we move forward. And we need to outperform whatever the economic conditions are. So that's our expectation. Look, I feel good. I think the Paper team is proud of what they've accomplished and the textile team has started to regain some momentum too. And they've done it by selling new business and getting after some of their margin challenges, particularly in certain geographies. And there's more to do there, but I have a lot of confidence that that business is on it and is poised to continue to drive improvements going forward.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan. Please go ahead with your questions.
Jeffrey J. Zekauskas - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Hi, good afternoon. Can you talk about the price trends in Energy and whether those price trends are going to persist in the first half of 2017 or longer?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
We've seen steady improvement. It looked like our low point in terms of pricing pressure was, I'll call it July 1. And since then it's slowly abated, not dramatically, but slowly. We would perceive that we'll see that continued, I guess, less bad pricing scenario for the first two quarters, and we might start getting even in Q3 – Q4 or even see some light at the end of the tunnel, particularly if raws start moving in the other direction, triggering some contractual terms.
Jeffrey J. Zekauskas - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. And then for my follow-up, for the last two years your SG&A expense has been down year over year. And I think this year you're talking about a 33% SG&A ratio, which would probably mean that would be up, I don't know, somewhere between $150 million and $200 million. Is that a true description of what's occurring, and why the SG&A inflation this year?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
I'd say the last couple of years what you've had going on is, I would say modest. It's still been accretive from a margin standpoint, but growth in SG&A across the Industrial, Institutional, and Other platform, and it's been offset in total by reduction in SG&A in Energy, as we've right-sized that business for the market conditions. What you have in 2017 is obviously no more need for right-sizing the Energy business. If anything, SG&A is going to be stable there, and we'll probably be looking to add important growth components as the year progresses there, if our view on Energy remains the same, that 2018 is going to be a strong year. And you see continued what I would call modest investments in SG&A and the other businesses continue in 2017. So the big difference I would say versus the last few years is Energy is no longer in a cut mode.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is coming from the line of Tim Mulrooney with William Blair. Please proceed with your questions.
Tim M. Mulrooney - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Good afternoon. It looks like core growth in the specialty business ticked up in fourth quarter to 8%. What drove the strong performance there? Were there some one-time factors or easier comparisons? And then how are you thinking about this business for 2017?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Pest had a little stronger quarter, but it's been running around that area. I would say that business is in a good position. Sometimes during a quarter, you may have a point of growth up or a point of growth down. It's just 13 weeks. By and large, we expect that to continue to grow in the high single-digit area as we move forward in 2017.
Tim M. Mulrooney - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Okay, great. Thanks. And then in the Institutional business, can you quantify the impact to organic growth from the exiting of the low margin business at Swisher? Was it a point or more or less than a point? And then also, on the divestiture of the non-core business, how big was that? Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, I would say globally it rounds around almost to a point, but it's going to go away probably the end of Q2, Q3 start normalizing, on your first question, i.e. the low margin and the less attractive business. And we don't take that out of our acquisition-adjusted because it's really sort of in the base business. The business we exited was worth, like, $30 million. It was the restroom hygiene business. That is adjusted out when we do acquisition-adjusted figures or organic figures.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Mike Harrison with Seaport Global Securities. Please proceed with your questions.
Michael Joseph Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC:
Hi, good afternoon. Just looking at the Institutional division, you've commented in the past on new account wins. I was wondering if you could give a little bit of color on the pace of business with those new accounts. Is it still the case that you're getting the warewashing business first and then over time you would expect to increase penetration into some other product lines or is it the case where more recently you're seeing the rate of penetration better from the outside such that you're selling a broader range of products from the get-go?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
I think somewhere in between, Mike. I mean the truth is when we sell a new, say, foodservice operation, be it the foodservice in a hotel or a restaurant chain or a caterer, we typically get a pretty big slug of what I'll call the kitchen hygiene program including warewashing and other products needed to take care of the food safety, et cetera, in a kitchen. Over time, we built from there, no doubt about it and that equation has not changed. So, that is simple as it's only warewash and then we start selling the balance of the kitchen hygiene. Usually, it's, call it, 80% of the kitchen hygiene program. We build from there. But that would not include things like water filtration, audit programs, pest elimination programs, kitchen equipment repair, et cetera, et cetera. Those types of programs are built over time as our customer relationship develops.
Michael Joseph Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC:
And then I was just hoping that you could talk a little bit about the cost structure and the margin profile of the Energy business as we think about next year. Obviously some puts and takes. You were taking out costs this year, but based on this modest revenue growth profile, how much margin improvement could we expect to see in terms of OI margin next year compared to this 11% margin that we showed this year? Is it a situation where we could see you get as high as the 13.4% that we saw back in 2015?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
When you're saying next year, is that 2017?
Michael Joseph Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC:
Yeah, sorry, this year.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Okay.
Michael Joseph Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC:
I'm living in the past, Doug.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
No, it's okay. I was, like, all of the sudden I'm being asked questions about Energy margins for 2018. Yeah, I think you're going to see – you won't see dramatic margin improvement this year for two reasons. One, we're kind of going through this transition, and there's two parts of this transition. There's a gross profit part, because as oil recovery occurs, so too does raw material recovery. We've talked – we always have a bit of a delay between raw material price increases and our ability to capture price, and that's true in the Energy business as well. And secondly, we're going to have some investment that we need to make in the Energy business in SG&A, moving into 2018 if we are confident that 2018 represents a pick-up in business activity. That call's going to be made in the third and fourth quarter. It's a long time from now in that sense and so I don't even know that it's worth talking about. For the year, we think the margin – as I mentioned earlier, we expect modest accretion on both the top and bottom line which suggests kind of flattish margins for the year in Energy, as we kind of go through this noise of raws and pricing recovery and then anticipated probably some SG&A investments needed as we exit the year preparing for an upturn next year. That's what's in our forecast.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Hamzah Mazari with Macquarie. Please proceed with your questions.
Hamzah Mazari - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Good afternoon. You had previously highlighted a potential opportunity to monetize customer data through technology investments in the field and I think you referenced the cloud as well. Just curious what inning are we in sort of the monetization process and could this be meaningful over the long term. Any color around that would be great.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
I think the opportunity to use the information that we already capture within customers much more effectively to drive value, merchandise the value we create, develop new opportunities and ways to help customers obviously with their full partnership represents a huge opportunity for the company. Whether it's specifically monetizing the information, i.e. charging for it or it's instead used as a means of us better helping customers and being more valuable, I think it's probably the latter. It's my guess as we move forward. We're in early innings. We certainly do it in many instances today, but I think our ability to up our game there is fairly dramatic. We've got huge advantage, I think, versus anybody else. We have over a million customer sites and probably collect data today and call it – and making it up 800,000 of those sites, but have only connected about less than 100,000 of those sites to the cloud. So the hard part is capturing the data. Connecting to the cloud isn't technically very complicated, and that's the work that we're doing. And then synthesizing it, rationalizing it, making it valuable for customers is, like, real work, and we're partnering with some great partners to learn how to do this and improve our capabilities there, which I think we've talked about. I mean Microsoft is a company that we've been leveraging there in many ways, sales force and other parts of our business, and we'll continue to do that as we move forward. So I think it's going to be huge for the company. It will not impact material 2017. I'm not even sure it will materially impact 2018, but in the not too distant future it's going to be a core way of us doing business.
Hamzah Mazari - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Great. And just a follow-up question. On the Energy business, do you have a sense of how much of a headwind has it been with customers shifting towards Tier 1 acreage essentially oil plays where it's cheaper extraction cost and so they use less Ecolab product versus oil plays where more Ecolab product is required for extraction? Just trying to get a sense of has that been a structural headwind? Has that gone away? Is that an issue still? Any color would be great. Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
First of all, yes, it is a headwind, and when oil gets cheap, people go to the cheapest, right, oil they can find, no doubt about it. We've always said you get kind of a stable price or expected price north of $60, different types of activities turn on and those activities are more fruitful for us because they command more technology than other. With that said, I think there's already been a somewhat positive shift from the bottom of the market as people start getting after oil that they weren't chasing just six, nine months ago, and that's a tailwind that we'll start seeing benefiting us in the Energy business over the next few years. But it's not a light switch, and as we said, we don't expect huge change in activity, stabilization, you're seeing the improvement. We expect to see that, but we don't expect any kind of sand dune or hockey-stick effect in 2017. We think it's going to take a little longer than that.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Scott Schneeberger with Oppenheimer. Please proceed with your questions.
Scott Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc.:
Thanks very much. I'm just curious in Pest Elimination, I'm pushing double-digits, the commentary is that it should show good growth in the first quarter. I'm curious can we get to double-digits? Is there – and I remember hearing that Zika may be something relevant. I'm just – they haven't heard much about that. Curious to see if that's something that maybe a – push it over the top. Thanks.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. Look, here's what I like. We are now debating whether pest ought to be an 8% or 10% business which is a lot more fun than just a few years ago where it was, like, at 2% and 3%. So I think the team in pest has done exactly what we hoped they would and asked them to do, which is they've really revitalized the business. We made a number of investments in that business, and it has paid off and the team has done a good job leveraging the investments that we made there. I think this is a run rate that we see right now. I don't think there's any natural barrier to the business that says it can't be a double-digit business. But right now I guess our expectation is that it's going to remain a high-single-digit organic growth business and it's a terrific business and at those growth rates we like it quite a bit.
Scott Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc.:
Thanks, Doug. And then shifting gears on just CapEx, could you delve into that a little bit for 2017? And where some of the specific areas are that you're targeting? Thanks.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
A lot of it's more of the same. I would guess this year's CapEx spend – of course we have a plan. We never exactly spend to our plan. I think it's going to be around $800 million spend. The single biggest category again is merchandising equipment. We expect to spend more in merchandising equipment this year than last year. That's a good thing because that's basically dispensing equipment for our chemicals and it indicates bullishness on part of the divisions around their new business capabilities. So I like to see that. If there's been a shift in spend, I went through and explained last year that we had a series of one-timers on offices. That's behind us and is going to slowly dissipate away. We're going to see more capacity build in this year than we did last year in terms of liquids capabilities, some capacity that we want to see for Energy, et cetera, that we're going to build in advance simply because we don't want to get caught short on the turnaround next year.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Andrew Wittmann with Robert W. Baird. Please proceed with your questions.
Andrew John Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
Great, thanks. Guys, I just noticed in your commentary on Energy that there are a couple exogenous-type events that happened in the quarter. I just want to have a little bit better understanding of what that was and how non-reoccurring they were.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
In Energy?
Andrew John Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
Yes.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
I would say there are always going to be exogenous events every quarter in Energy. I would say Energy in the fourth quarter delivered exactly what we expected it to moving into the quarter, and we haven't been able to say that many times. And so you always have events in Energy. And so certainly Nigeria, you've got pipelines going down in other parts of Africa. That impacts it. But there's always something going on. We've got a global business in Energy. And our expectation is the fundamentals in that market are improving, and that's the thing that we most focus on. We can't predict when the next pipeline is going to go down, but something will happen in 2017 also, I'm sure.
Andrew John Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
Got it. I wanted to follow up on use of the buyback. Obviously, you didn't do any in fourth quarter, and you did front-load last year's buyback activity with an ASR. You haven't announced one this year. I'm just curious as to what your thoughts are around the buyback for 2017. And similar to a prior question, does it depend on the clearance of the larger deals that would be of potential interest to you? Do those need to clear before maybe we'd see the buyback ramp up?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
I'm sure he won't fall for it.
Daniel J. Schmechel - Ecolab, Inc.:
So standing here today, what we know our expectation for 2017 is that our share repurchase would be about the same in amount and sequence that you saw in 2016. So we did $700 million of shares repurchased in 2016. You're right, we did an upfront $300 million ASR. We've not committed to the ASR, but my expectation is that share repurchase would be about the same in the aggregate and that some of it would be done in an accelerated way.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Rosemarie Morbelli with Gabelli & Company. Please proceed with your questions.
Rosemarie Jeanne Morbelli - Gabelli & Company:
Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. Doug, I was wondering if you could touch on Asia. If my memory serves me right, you talked in your prepared remarks about some softness, particularly in China. Could you give us a feel for where the softness was, in particular vis-à-vis your operations and what you are seeing for 2017?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Hi, Rosemarie. Yes, in China in heavy water and the heavy industrial side, we continue to see softness there. So I think mining, steel, and even paper just as China has been going through a bit of a cycle in the heavy industry. As we move forward, with that said, so our China business was down maybe 5% for the year, but made more money in 2017. That's the organic rate. The actual reported rate was positive because we made the acquisition that in part annualized in 2016. Moving forward, we would expect to have positive organic growth in 2017, so a better year. In large part, there's stabilization in the Chinese market, even in steel and some of these other areas. What we'll end up doing is annualizing again some of the pain in 2017, so we don't really have a falling market. What we have is a bit lower market, but we will we believe grow in that market both organically and potentially through acquisition too.
Rosemarie Jeanne Morbelli - Gabelli & Company:
And if I may, you have made some change in Healthcare with Life Sciences growing at 14% and acute care at 4% to 6%. Can you give us a better feel for the changes you have made? And then what is the percentage of total of each one of those entities? I would guess that it is the Life Sciences that is the smallest, but if you could help on that.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
So first of all, we've done several things and we've talked about them, but splitting the business allowed both businesses to better focus on
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Yiqin Gao with Nationwide. Please proceed with your questions.
Yiqin Gao - Nationwide Insurance Co.:
Hi, and thank you for taking my question. You mentioned that Ecolab is still going to pursue M&A opportunities this year. Can you talk a little bit about the size of the kind of deal you're looking for and also the pipeline and how you're going to fund those deals? Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, look, the only – we tend not to get very specific about how we're thinking and what we're thinking about M&A kind of like everybody else. So it's better just left it unsaid. So M&A has been a historic part of our strategy. It will remain a key part of our strategy going forward.
Yiqin Gao - Nationwide Insurance Co.:
Okay, thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. There are no additional questions at this time. I would like to turn the floor back over to management for closing remarks.
Michael J. Monahan - Ecolab, Inc.:
That wraps up our fourth quarter conference call. This call and the associated discussion slides will be available for replay on our website. Thanks for your time today and your participation, and best wishes for the rest of the day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference and you may now disconnect your lines at this time.
Executives:
Michael J. Monahan - Ecolab, Inc. Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.
Analysts:
Gary Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC Nate J. Brochmann - William Blair & Co. LLC John Salvatore Quealy - Canaccord Genuity, Inc. Laurence Alexander - Jefferies LLC David E. Ridley-Lane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Manav Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc. Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC John Roberts - UBS Securities LLC P.J. Juvekar - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker) Michael Joseph Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC Kayvan Rahbar - Macquarie Andrew John Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker) Christopher S. Parkinson - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker) Rosemarie Jeanne Morbelli - Gabelli & Company Scott Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker) Dan Dolev - Nomura Securities International, Inc.
Operator:
Greetings and welcome to Ecolab's Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Release Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Mike Monahan, Senior Vice-President, External Relations for Ecolab. Thank you. You may begin.
Michael J. Monahan - Ecolab, Inc.:
Thank you. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Ecolab's third quarter conference call. With me today is Doug Baker, Ecolab's Chairman and CEO; and Dan Schmechel, our CFO. A discussion of our results along with our earnings release and the slides referencing our quarter's results and our outlook are available on Ecolab's website at ecolab.com/investor. Please take a moment to read the cautionary statements on these materials stating that this teleconference, the discussion and the slides include estimates of future performance. These are forward-looking statements and actual results could differ materially from those projected. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are described in the section of our most recent Form 10-K under the Item 1A, Risk Factors, and in our posted materials. We also refer you to the supplemental diluted earnings per share information in the release. Starting with a brief overview of the quarter, continued attractive new business gains and new product introductions drove acquisition-adjusted fixed currency sales growth in our Institutional, Industrial and Other segments during the third quarter, offsetting a moderated decline in Energy sales. Product innovation, lower delivered product costs and ongoing cost efficiency work led the strong adjusted fixed currency operating margin expansion, more than offsetting the impact of soft economies, challenging end markets and continued currency headwinds. These drove the 7% adjusted earnings per share increase before currency translation. Looking to the fourth quarter, we expect our Institutional, Industrial and Other segments to show modestly better year-on-year acquisition adjusted fixed currency growth versus the third quarter, outpacing their markets and soft international economies as they leverage investments we have made to further improve sales and service force effectiveness and profitability. We expect lower year-on-year results from our Energy business. We look for our fourth quarter adjusted diluted earnings per share to be in the $1.23 to $1.33 range, with that range including approximately $0.02 per share of unfavorable impact from the Venezuela devaluation and deconsolidation and currency translation, as we continue to aggressively drive business growth. We have narrowed our forecast for the full year 2016 to the $4.35 to $4.45 range from $4.35 to $4.50, which includes expected currency headwinds of approximately $0.30 per share, of which $0.17 per share is from the Venezuela devaluation and deconsolidation. Moving to some highlights from the quarter, as discussed in our press release, third quarter diluted earnings per share were $1.27. On an adjusted basis, excluding special gains and charges and discrete tax items from both years, third quarter 2016 adjusted diluted earnings per share were $1.28, and included a $0.09, or 7 percentage point currency headwind. This compared with adjusted diluted earnings per share of $1.28 a year ago. Our consolidated acquisition adjusted fixed currency sales were modestly higher as our Institutional, Industrial and Other segments grew 3%, but were offset by lower Energy sales. Regional sales growth was led by Latin America. Reported operating margins increased 500 basis points. Adjusted fixed currency operating margins expanded 60 basis points as continued sales growth from the Institutional, Industrial and Other segments, lower delivered product costs and cost efficiencies more than offset investments in the business and lower Energy results. In 2016's difficult operating environment, we have focused on driving new business gains by helping customers to lower their costs. We are using our industry-leading product innovation and service strengths to help customers achieve the best results and the lowest operating costs, and through these aggressively drive new account gains across all of our segments. We expect fourth quarter earnings per share in the $1.23 to $1.33 range, reflecting currency translation drag of approximately $0.02. We narrowed our full year earnings per share forecast to the $4.35 to $4.45 range and this forecast includes expected unfavorable currency exchange of approximately $0.30 per share, of which $0.17 per share is from the Venezuela devaluation and deconsolidation. In summary, despite a very challenging global economic and market environment, we expect to deliver solid fundamental results in 2016. We remain confident in our business, our markets and our people, as well as our capacities to meet our aggressive growth objectives over the coming years. And now here's Doug Baker with some comments.
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Thanks, Mike. Look, my headline would be solid quarter, headwinds are easing, and we believe we're in a good position as we close out the year. So let me go through each of these briefly. So, first, the quarter. I would describe it as better than it looks. The Institutional business, if you look at the underlying sales, particularly in North America, which is a big piece of the business, they remain consistent with the first half in Q3. The noise in this quarter was really in the U.S. distribution channel, and we expect Q4 sales to bounce back to the level that we were seeing prior to Q3. QSR and FRS, our food retail and quick service businesses remain quite strong. Our F and B business was solid. They've got good new business. We expect that business to accelerate in 2017. The Water business, mining decline eclipsed mid single digit light industry growth and low single digit heavy industry growth. Mining is expected to rebound in Q4 as it hits easier comps and also benefits from new sales, so the Water business will look much better in Q4 and throughout 2017. The Healthcare business grew at a healthy 6%. We expect an even better Q4 as it laps last year's recall and continues to benefit from new business efforts and successes that we're having. So this business is really gaining traction. Pets and equipment care were quite strong and expect to remain strong. Energy stabilized. So our sales of $760 million in Q3 are consistent with both Q2 and Q1. Our OI in Q3, however, is much better as reformulations, synergies, and other savings take hold. As we look to Q4, we expect the results to be quite similar to Q3. I call it plus-minus. Sales likely to be a bit better, OA, OI maybe a touch weaker as we will take down two plants for refurbishment. And we're doing that just to be prepared if we're surprised on the upside next year. We don't want to be in a position where we have to take them down at that time. So we expect to leave the year with very good momentum and fewer hills to climb. The external environment continues to be challenging, and it's mixed, but we believe manageable from an economic standpoint. Raw materials are expected to increase, but we can manage via pricing and cost savings we have in the past. And we don't see this as spiky. We see it as fairly gradual. FX is easing. So in our first quarter, FX was a 14% headwind, and it's roughly a 1% headwind in Q4. We assume we're highly unlikely to see another 7% full-year challenge in 2017. Energy is stabilized, and if market only stands still here, it will likely or should be an accretive year even in those conditions for us in 2017. Internally, we've also continued to have great success with new business and our innovation pipeline. We've also maintained investments throughout this year. We invested more in 2016 than 2015. And 2015 was larger in the investment category than 2014, so we continue to build on what we think our core investments for the future, so we have not, if you will, emptied the cabinet there by any means. We've also rebuilt bonus, taken down inventory, swallowed the absorption hit that this typically drives. So we leave the year whole is what I would say. So while it's too early for 2017 forecasts, we're just frankly in the middle of our planning season. We feel like we're sitting in a good position, leaving the year to deliver a significantly improved 2017. So those are my opening comments. With that, I'll turn it back to Mike.
Michael J. Monahan - Ecolab, Inc.:
That concludes our formal remarks. Operator, would you please begin the Q&A period?
Operator:
Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Gary Bisbee with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
Gary Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Hey, guys. Good afternoon. Doug, I'll just ask about that final or one of the final comments you made. I think you said Energy stabilizing if – did you say if oil prices stay around here, would it be positive in 2017 or something to that effect? Can you just give more color on how you get comfortable with that? Thanks.
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. I mean, a lot of it, Gary, is just the timing of our OI improvements. So, we made, what, mid $50s million on roughly the same sales, like $56 million I think in the first quarter on roughly the same sales that we had in the third quarter. We made nearly $100 million in the third quarter. And a lot of that is just timing. There's been a lot of great work done in that Energy business to reformulate products, lower cost, position ourselves for what I would say improved margins going forward once the wind starts blowing in our direction again. So as a consequence of that, even in a relatively flat environment, if you assume no material activity change, and we continue to generate around the same $750 million, $760 million in sales a quarter, which is what we've done in the last three and are forecasting in four, you're going to see OI lift just as a consequence of the timing of the OI improvement this year. Now, what we think is going to happen next year is there will be very modest improvement throughout the year, particularly in the second half of 2017, but I caution we think it's modest. We don't think this is by any means set up for a V recovery. I'm talking about the overall energy market. In that environment, we think we'll have low single digit, mid single digit type sales and decent OI.
Gary Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Great. Thanks. And then just a follow-up on the non-Energy businesses. You've done an outstanding job the last 18 months driving consistent margin expansion in all of those businesses to offset the Energy weakness. Has there – I know you said you've been investing a lot, but is there a risk that if Energy takes longer to come back that, it just becomes much more difficult, I guess, particularly with raws prices likely going up in the first half of next year to sustain the momentum on a constant currency basis? Obviously FX looks like it's going to be a lot less of a drag.
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. I think, Gary, I guess the FX, it hits you in transaction and translation. In transaction is like inflation. And we mitigate that. But the translation, there's nothing to do. And FX has really been the problem that's been the most challenging for us to negate because it's not going to justify any pricing or drive any pricing in the market. Raw materials, I think we've proven over the years that when the raws start moving, we typically can go command additional pricing as a consequence. We continue to drive mix through new technology upgrades in our customers, and of course we've got to benefit the customers financially as well. And we've got, what I would say, very strong momentum in our supply chain around what we call structural savings. So I'm really not that nervous about what we believe is going to happen in the raw material markets which we believe raws are going to move up next year, but we do believe we're going to move up in a fairly orderly fashion as we go. But we have that fully forecasted in our business. I don't think that's going to drive or negate our ability to continue to drive margin expansion in those businesses. And I would say we didn't drive margin just because oil was down. I mean, we were driving margin when oil was up in a number of those businesses. That's kind of our constant. We want profitable growth, continue to drive mix in a favorable way, watch our spending, continue to get productivity, and those are going to be the same focus areas next year as well.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Nate Brochmann with William Blair. Please proceed with your question.
Nate J. Brochmann - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Good afternoon, gentlemen. Hey, Doug, wanted to chat about two things
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, it's some of both, Nate. So certainly a number of these initiatives have what I'll call long tails. They take a number of years to fully realize the benefit. And so a number of steps. Look, we're continuing to roll out new technology in the Institutional field force, and so we certainly are already absorbing the cost associated with that, but haven't fully realized the benefits and won't for a couple of years, meaning it will continue to increase in benefit. But I don't think you're going to be at full run rate for a few years. It just takes a while, the change happens in practices, take out the cost that it obsoletes, et cetera. In the manufacturing and product supply area which we always said was going to be the last frontier for synergies, so we can't call them synergies anymore, but we are getting after a number of opportunities in product supply because we now have a full handle on what the network looks like today and what we think it ought to look like going forward. And there are significant opportunities there that our product supply team is after. So we don't feel we're impaired in terms of opportunities to continue to drive productivity and margin enhancements as we go forward. And I would expect as we continue to add businesses through M&A that we will continue to see additional opportunities arise.
Nate J. Brochmann - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Okay. And then second question. I realize this is likely probably not going to be a 2017 event, but then going forward, hopefully, the economy at best maybe – or hopefully at least stays sluggish if not gets a little bit better over that time. But how do you think about at some point in terms of balancing as you kind of recapture the Energy business a little bit and hopefully we have those less FX headwinds. How do you think about letting that margin flow through to the bottom line and back to shareholders versus then when do you kind of kick up the reinvestment rate a little bit?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, I think there will be – as the Energy business recovers, yeah, there's a number of things. I mean, as we've watched the volume degrade there, it is a more harmful process than simply you lose the OI, particularly because you lose the overhead coverage in your plant. So, I think, you're right. As Energy volume comes back, you're going to see sort of outsize contributions in the near term as you build volume back in your plants. We will use some of that what I will call extra contribution to reinvest back in the Energy business where it makes sense. But we aren't going to be, I think, overzealous of those investments. We want to see full recovery and make sure that we're investing as the business comes back, and we'd rather be two weeks late than two weeks early on that recovery because it is so hard to predict. So, I don't know if that answers fully your question. But I don't feel like we've got huge pent-up investment demands in the balance of the business, and what I tried to highlight in the opening comments were, we have been increasing our investments in these last two years in spite of FX and energy headwinds. It's important to continue to do that in the business. We have a relatively long-term view of the business. And so, I don't feel like the cupboards are bare. They're going to need to be restocked per se from an investment standpoint as a consequence.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of John Quealy with Canaccord Genuity. Please proceed with your question.
John Salvatore Quealy - Canaccord Genuity, Inc.:
Hi. Good afternoon. First, geography question. Looks like Latin America was supportive to Water, Food & Beverage, Institutional. Is there anything going on there that would suggest sustained strength in the end of the year, or was that just a bit of a catch up?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
No. I mean, our Latin America business, I mean, there's certainly not being driven by a great underlying economy. Look, we're having several things go on there. One is, we continue to have new business success. We've got a solid base. You can count on it. In the food safety business and the Water business in particular, those things are typically fairly immune to huge economic swings. With that said, we're also getting pricing, really significant pricing as a consequence of the devaluation that have occurred down there from a currency standpoint. That begets inflation, it drives up our raw materials in that market and we've got to get pricing to offset that, which we're doing successfully. So that's certainly a key piece of the double-digit growth story. I would expect that that business is going to remain fairly resilient and have strong performance for the quarters to come.
John Salvatore Quealy - Canaccord Genuity, Inc.:
Okay. Thank you. And my follow up on Healthcare. You talk about some good growth in a smaller base business. In particular, the acute care in the HAI. Can you walk us through how is that tracking to your expectations, Doug? Are you getting the sales touches and the conversions you want as that marketplace begins to evolve? Thanks.
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. No, I think the team has done a very good job. One, the work we did the last few years I think has been quite fruitful. I think the team that's running this business right now is doing a great job executing. And so we're starting to get uptake in the market. We're having successful rollouts. We've got a much better pipeline than we've had. So, yeah, I would say we were confident. We've talked about this, that this business is continuing to improve. I think you're just seeing the fruits of that. So our expectation is we're going to have a very strong fourth quarter, a little bit artificially strong because of last year's recall that's in the base. But if you take that out, it's going to be consistent with this 6% plus the benefit of the recall comp. And then next year, we look at this moving from mid single digits to upper single digits. So I think we're on the right track.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.
Laurence Alexander - Jefferies LLC:
Good morning. So two quick questions. First, can you give a bit of a feel for, to the extent that your pricing is catching up to your raw materials when you think you will lag that effect or lap it so to speak? And second, how do you think about the underlying operating leverage in the Energy business given the investments that you're making? I mean, is it going to be a multi-year 300 basis points to 500 basis points margin opportunity, or how can we size that?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. I didn't fully get the last. So raw materials, we're forecasting we'll start moving kind of enterprise-wide in 2017. They're going to remain favorable in Q4 year-on-year. They're just less favorable than Q3. And there's a minor step up if you will, sequential, from Q3 to Q4. So we're starting to see these. At this point in time, I think we're going to be able to keep our nose above water certainly for the year in 2017. I can't tell you if there's not going to be an issue in one quarter, but I don't think this is going to be, by any means, a theme for next year. We're going to have to continue to do what we do in pricing, continue to do what we do on mix, continue to do what we do on cost savings, and I think those three tools are more than sufficient to offset what we see in terms of raw material inflation next year.
Laurence Alexander - Jefferies LLC:
And then the other question was just on the Energy business with the investments you've been making, how you think about the medium-term operating leverage. I mean, should we think about the investments as supporting sales growth or should we think about them as supporting margin expansion as volume comes back?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. I mean, there's no real significant investments going in the Energy business at the moment. What I was alluding to was we will, as this business starts accelerating again, we will be investing. I mean, these are variable investments in terms of re-expanding the sales team and some other functional support areas. But I don't – again, I think that's going to be well managed as that business expands so well to gross profit and it will more than cover the investments we need to make as we do it.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David Ridley-Lane with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please proceed with your question.
David E. Ridley-Lane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Sure. So there's been news this week around GE and the Baker Hughes acquisition, also news that they divest their Water business. Any thoughts on the potential benefits from disruption in those areas of your business?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, I think – I guess, it's all brand-new news. I mean, historically I guess I would agree with your premise that when our competitors undergo large transactions are either bought, sold or buy somebody, we tend to go through – it knocks them off their game a little bit and causes distraction. And it's not lost on us. So, yeah, I would say typically these things short-term can offer favorable competitive environments.
David E. Ridley-Lane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Okay. And in the past, you've sometimes spoken about the trend in new business signings in aggregate. Any comment about third quarter and any area that you would say is doing particularly well? Thanks.
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. Third quarter was above third quarter last year. I mean, we had a very good net new business. I would say one of the things – we've never had a lot of loses, but I would even say this year our losses are less than they were on the last few years on a run rate, which is great for us. So, net total, we're starting to accelerate in the second half on the new business piece, which is important as we enter next year. So I think we feel like we're in good shape there.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Manav Patnaik with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.
Manav Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Yeah. Thank you. Good afternoon. I wanted to ask the first question by David from the M&A standpoint. We always ask you about your typical pipeline and they end up being small to mid. But just curious if your three main major competitors that you usually can call out are in the process of spinning off, being sold, or acquired. Just curious like what your appetite for some of these larger deals stands as it is today?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. I mean, the only answer on specific M&A questions is no comment, broadly. I think what we've always said is we have a appetite for smart deals. We never said we had some kind of artificial limit on size, so that's the approach we take. And so on specifics around M&A prospects, no comment.
Manav Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Okay. Fair enough. And then just on Healthcare, if I can, I mean, it seems like you've had another good quarter of 6%. I mean, are we sort of have a clear runway here? Do you need to bolt on more acquisitions like the one you're doing in France? Just how should we think about where we should hold you on Healthcare too in terms of performance?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, I guess what we've been consistently saying is we think Healthcare is an upper single digit organic growth business, and we're clearly making progress to getting this business in that range. And I think, so one, that's the standard we hold ourselves to, so I'm clearly open to being held to that standard externally. I think that's fair. In terms of additional acquisition, I would describe it this. I think if there are smart deals to be done in the Healthcare arena, we're all open. It's not a case that we are strategically impaired because we're missing something. So they would be done, I would call it, opportunistically because we thought it enabled us to either grow faster, expand faster, or supplemented our technology in some way that was beneficial for customers. But it's not like there's this big giant strategic hole we've got to go fill externally.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Dmitry Silversteyn with Longbow Research. Please proceed with your question.
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC:
Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. A couple of things. First of all, just want to understand the performance of the Water business in the quarter. It was sort of coming along in kind of mid single digit same currency growth, and then it was basically flat. This quarter you talked about some declines in demand in Asia, particularly China, as well as the mining market impact and then – that you were, I guess, a little bit more bullish on the mining expectation for the fourth quarter. So, can you talk a little bit about what the trends are in Water? Why China was down? Was it all because of the mining or was there some other slowdown going on and what gives you the confidence that that business is going to come back in the fourth quarter?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. Well, mining is a case of – mining has been down double digits here for four quarters. And that's sort of the secret. We're lapping Q4 last year as the first real pain that we saw in mining is it reflected the pain broadly in the mining market. So, mining based on new business and frankly lapping Q4 of last year, we are pretty confident it's going to be, let's just say, neutral at worst, maybe minorly positive at best year-on-year. So the negative influence from mining is going to abate, and mining will turn positive as we move into 2017. The other market you mentioned is China, and that's really pain we feel on the heavy side of that business. And that's a reflection of steel, overcapacity, some being taken offline, mining, also in China. And also somewhat paper. Our paper results globally were positive, but they were much more positive than that if you took out the mining or the China results. And ultimately we look at that, we're going to start lapping those comps starting a little bit in the first quarter next year and really fully after the second quarter next year. And so we look at that as an improving situation as we move through 2017 as well. Otherwise, I mean the Water business is doing quite well. So the light business continues to perform. We continue to drive great innovation there. That's the largest segment that we're in. It's also the most profitable. It had been de-emphasized, and we have reemphasized it to significant positive effect. And the heavy side is starting to do a good job generating new business. It's going to start lapping some of the industrial slowdown so the lab what I'll call more reasonable comps for this environment. And so, I think, you see some of that good work coming through.
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC:
Okay. Doug, thanks. And then just touching on Energy briefly as my follow up. It sounds from your guidance that you expect another, I don't know, 17%, 18%, 19%, something like that, decline in year-over-year sales in the fourth quarter, basically bringing your two-year decline to about 30%. Clearly, this has gone beyond sort of the 10% of your business that was or 20% of the business at one time that was the upstream business. So are you starting to see the weakness spread into the downstream in the refining business? Is it mostly pricing or volume or a combination thereof? And are we just basically looking for 2017 where we're stabilizing at these levels, but not seeing much of an improvement on the top line as we go through the year.
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. Well, first, Dmitry, I mean, the substance of your question I'll answer. I'll just say, last year Energy was down just under 10%, more like 9%. And this year we're saying it's going to be down, what I think we said, 10% to 12% or 12%. So it's not down 30% over the last couple years, right? It's down considerably less than that. And we also aren't predicting a fourth quarter in the range that you cited either. It's going to be down modestly worse year-on-year than the third quarter simply because the fourth quarter comps of last year included a number of one-time issues which we identified last year in the fourth quarter. It was a little bit inflated if you will. But sequentially the Energy business in the fourth quarter this year versus third quarter this year is going to be quite consistent. So we've improved, the top line run rate has stabilized. OI run rate has improved throughout the year. So we're going to enter the year with, what I would call, top line stable, OI margin momentum as we go in. So, yeah, it's going to take a little while to build this business back and regain the 20% we lost. What we've tried to signal is this isn't going to be a one-year phenomenon. And I don't know if it's going to take two years or two and a half years at this point in time, but it's certainly going to take longer than one year to build it back. We've said next year we expect it to be positive on the top line, but modestly positive because we also think it's going to be a modest recovery in the oil markets.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of John Roberts with UBS. Please proceed with your question.
John Roberts - UBS Securities LLC:
Thank you. Could you give us an update on how the rollout of institutional water treatment is going?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. I would say that's in the light industry portion of the Water business. Okay. Let me dig some fun facts. So, our expectation was that we were going to have a cumulative impact of $90 million there, and we're starting to see revenue build throughout the year. So through the end of this year, I think we're going to be running around probably about the $25 million to $27 million rate leaving the year, and we expect that to accelerate throughout next year. So that's on track and doing what we expect it to do.
John Roberts - UBS Securities LLC:
And then a number of companies have talked about some deceleration in Europe. I'm not sure Europe was ever all that strong, but could you give us a sense of what you're seeing sequentially as the quarter went along in early October in Europe?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Early October, but I will comment on...
John Roberts - UBS Securities LLC:
Well, or early November. We're only one day in November, but what did you see as you went month by month, some of your – some...
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. I guess what I would comment is on Q3. And what we're – I mean, Europe is clearly not robust. I would say, I would have described it in the first half as probably stronger than I expected. I think in Q3 it was as strong as I expected or as weak as I expected going in. So I'd say there's been some downtick in the economy there. It hasn't fallen off a cliff. And I would still say the environment is, if we do our job and continue to drive new business and keep our existing customers, drive mix in the other things that we have in our toolbox, we should be able to continue to show growth in that market, which is what we anticipate being able to do.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of P.J. Juvekar with Citigroup. Please proceed with your question.
P.J. Juvekar - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Yeah, good afternoon. Doug, your QSR growth of 6% was quite robust. Is QSR gaining share away from sit-down or fine dining? And are you – maybe it's a case and maybe you're aligning better with the right customer. Can you talk about that?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. I don't know. QSR, there's – if you look at those industry trends, it hasn't really accelerated. I mean it's continued to kind of hold its own. If there's been any trading from top down, it's probably more in the fast casual segment and those other segments of the market less so than from QSR, I think. Our strength there is really built on we've got very deep relationships. We work very hard to help our customers there react to the environments they find themselves in. Currently, it's not a perfect top-line environment for those businesses, and they're having real cost pressures underneath, particularly from both wage and also benefit pressure, i.e., ACA. And so we're doing a lot of work there trying to help them take labor out of those businesses because they have to given this environment. And so that will offer us new technology for us, but it's a huge financial benefit for them. And that's how we're looking at that market and why I still am quite bullish on our ability to continue to grow in QSR going forward.
P.J. Juvekar - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Thank you. And, Doug, if you were to do any M&A, what sub-segment would you be looking at? Would it be Institutional, Water, and maybe Energy? Or no Energy?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, I would say, we'll answer the Energy question first. I mean, we did an acquisition in Energy not that long ago, and I think as I've reflected in other answers on this question around Energy M&A, it's sort of a situation that if you don't have to sell right now, most people aren't in the mood to sell. If they can make it through. Because I think everybody feels like this thing has bottomed and better times are ahead for them both on a multiple and an EBITDA absolute basis. So it's not – there's not a lot of for sale signs out there from a lot of people. There are going to be exceptions, and there's been a notable one this week. So, I guess, I'd be a little surprised if we end up doing any real Energy M&A in the near term for that reason. In terms of where else, yeah, I would say, look, if we're in a business, we're in it to go grow. M&A is one of the growth tools that we use to supplement organic growth. And if we found other smart deals in Institutional, F&B, Water, Healthcare, sort of a naming (38:27), we would be interested. What would our wish list be? I think we've strategically said we want to continue to build the Healthcare business, i.e., you've seen the Anios recent acquisition. And, Water, just because of the market probably hasn't been penetrating with small M&A deals like some of our others, that would also be a place that we would think might be richer environment.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Mike Harrison with Seaport Global Securities. Please proceed with your question.
Michael Joseph Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC:
Hi. Good afternoon. Doug, you mentioned some noise in the U.S. distribution channel. Can you just give us a little more color on what happened there?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. Mike, we get this periodically. I mean, it's just, typically we assume that outs from the distributor are going to generate an equal number of ins, i.e., orders to the distributor from us. We have great transparency here as you know, meaning, we had printouts from each of our distributor partners about what exact case went to what exact customer at what price. So we have great clarity in terms of consumption particularly in our U.S. and Canadian businesses. And in U.S., you simply had distributors taking down inventory in the quarter. I mean, it could be as simple as we're watching these things run through here. These things happen, I would say, episodically. I mean, it's happened a number of times. I ran that business. This is not big new news. If it's consumption dropping, we get nervous. If it's just a order pattern deal with our distributor inventories, then we don't really get all that nervous. So, the U.S. consumption was at 6.3% in the third quarter compared to 6.4% through acquisition adjusted in the second quarter. That's not any meaningful difference. And so, we're quite confident that business continues to run well.
Michael Joseph Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC:
All right. And then in the comments that you guys provided on Energy, you referenced lower customer product usage within the production side of the Energy business. I was wondering, how much flexibility did customers have on reducing chemical use and is this a situation where they can only do that for so long and then we would expect to see the usage rebound, or does it have more to do with the mix of production coming from more sources that are using less of your chemicals on a per barrel basis?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. I'd say it's principally that there are some technologies they just turned off because of their cash position. And so, some anticorrosion products. You don't see corrosion in a month or even a year, it's over a period of time. And so these are technologies that they'll turn off in very dire times. But they will end up turning it back on because it's not very smart economically to have these turned off for long periods of time because you're going to basically blow out your pipe and then you've got a big capital problem if you want to continue flow of material. So it's a number of those instances. And that business we anticipate would come back as price and customer cash flow stabilizes.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Hamzah Mazari with Macquarie. Please proceed with your question.
Kayvan Rahbar - Macquarie:
Hi. This Kayvan stepping in for Hamzah. You had a question about SG&A. Could you sort of tell us sort of what the outlook for that might be especially as it relates to some of the investment spend that's coming in?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. Look, I'd say our investments are in several areas. I mean, certainly we continue to add sales folks in the businesses that continue to show solid organic growth. We continue to invest in field technology and also what I'll call a customer connectivity technology. We collect data in nearly a million customer sites around the world, and we want to make sure that we connect that data collection capability with the cloud so that we can better utilize it to inform our sales team in advance of what's going on, better direct them to sales opportunities, how to help the customer frankly drive efficiency in both new sales productivity and in just selling time productivity as we go forward. So that's an area that's getting a lot of work. We continue to invest in just core ERP capabilities throughout the company knitting together the number of ERP systems we have around the world. We turned Canada on in the second quarter. We typically don't talk about these things as we go through them because we typically don't have big issues as we turn them on. And so we're continuing to invest there as we move forward, and so those areas are also getting, what I would call, historically outsize investments as we upgrade those capabilities, which we think are really important for us long-term and something that we think is manageable in our P&L as we move forward.
Kayvan Rahbar - Macquarie:
All right. I appreciate that color. Thanks a lot.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Andy Wittmann with Robert W. Baird. Please proceed with your question.
Andrew John Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Great. Thanks. Doug, as we're heading here into 2017 and you're doing your planning process, I was just hoping you could outline for us what your key strategic priorities are going to be as you go into 2017 and really what some of those swing factors that could affect – the key swing factors that you're looking at today as you handicap what 2017 could look like? I just want to see what's on your list of pluses and minuses there.
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. I would say in terms of driving the business, we mentioned this year one of them, we had a number of key strategic priorities. One was getting energy-ready for what we'll call stabilization and kind of upturn, and I think we can check the box and then we feel like we're in good shape there moving into next year. So, strategic priorities around driving the business or just making sure we continue to stick to the fundamentals. Driving new business, leveraging innovation to do that, as well as to build mix, profitable mix within the existing customer base, all the fundamentals that we typically drive. We've got some significant cost savings initiatives that we're undertaking, particularly in product supply, which I mentioned earlier, to make sure just from an operating standpoint we continue to build both top line and expand margins as we go forward. Longer term, there's probably two key areas that we're going to have outsize emphasis. One I just talked about in terms of field technology and customer connection technologies. We're going to continue to invest there, make sure that we have a leadership position. We already have a huge installed base of information collection capability. We want to make sure that we fully leverage that to our advantage and our customers' advantage moving forward, so that's going to get an area. The second would be talent. And so we have had a lot of success, I think, attracting great people, but we want to continue to improve our capabilities there. We track by business, by market, we're in a 172 of them how we do in terms of keeping our people, developing our people, and promoting our people, and we want to continue to increase our capabilities in all those areas because we think that's going to increasingly become a very important source of long-term competitiveness.
Andrew John Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker):
On the earnings side, the key swing factors that you're looking at to drive results into 2017?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
I think the wild cards would be, number one, FX. And so, I'm sitting here quite confident it's not going to be anywhere near 7% in terms of EPS headwind next year, but if you want something that can turn on a dime, it would be FX. It's also impossible to predict. I guess I just did. So that would be the wild card. Again, I don't think it's fundamental to what's going on in the business and long-term that turns the other way some day. I just don't know when it is. The other area I think would be just kind of world economic health. I don't think the world is going to turn to recession, but it's kind of a flaky world right now and it's almost binary. Things turn on and off much more rapidly than they did before. I think that's something we're just going to have to manage and be nimble. And then finally, oil, which I would say is probably more likely an upside than downside to price, but it could go either way as we all know. Oil would be the other one that you would say, I think we've got this thing cast fairly in kind of a comfortable zone. We are not expecting any really upside benefit from a big market upturn from oil. I don't think you're going to see it in any case in the first half. Second half, you can start arguing a case, probably more likely upside versus our forecast than downside.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Christopher Parkinson with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.
Christopher S. Parkinson - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Thank you. Just an extension on the Healthcare questions. Can you comment a little on the longer-term trends you're seeing in the business, especially under readmission reduction program penalties, HII penalties, et cetera. It seems like you've seen some material upticks here in the last year. So just anything worth noting that could be a tailwind in 2017 or 2018?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. I don't know that we can attribute our recent success to that factor. I would say that could only help us. I would say we're not counting on it; that fundamentally what we're working to do is be much clearer in articulating the benefit and effectiveness of our program approach in reducing HAIC or healthcare-acquired infection. This has material financial benefits to hospitals who are looking for material financial benefit. And it also has great moral benefits as well because you're hurting fewer people as you go forward. So I think that's really what we're focused on and talking about. I think if that gets traction, we'll start weaving that more tightly into our story, but that's not the benefit that we're leveraging right now.
Christopher S. Parkinson - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Fair enough. And very quickly on pest elimination, can you just talk a little more about the regional trends you're seeing in LatAm and Asia Pac specifically, the long-term strategies and just a little more color on the innovative sales offerings, please? Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Pest business was fairly strong across the board, and I'm just trying to get my chart. I would say two things. The business is – the pest business really takes off when you have some density. And so, what we've been able to do with a number of like what I would call as the Asia Pacific and the Latin America markets is continuing to drive density, which will continue to drive much better leverage. Right now if you look at those markets, they are the lowest OI margins that we have, and it's really a consequence of the makeup of the business, i.e., smaller businesses that are growing but haven't quite achieved what I would call margin efficient density level. But they will. So that's one of the reasons I think to be bullish on that business. All of them are growing quite well, and the growth in particularly Latin America and Asia Pacific is going to have outsized margin contribution as it starts overwhelming the overhead investments that we've already made.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Rosemarie Morbelli with Gabelli & Company. Please proceed with your question.
Rosemarie Jeanne Morbelli - Gabelli & Company:
Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. Doug, I was wondering if you could touch on the growth from Institutional, which went from up 10% in the second quarter to up 7% in the third. Is the 7% more normal level, or was there some negative impact in Europe from all of those attacks?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. It wasn't Europe in particular. As I mentioned earlier, we had a somewhat unusually soft result in Institutional that was really driven by inventory distributor – distributor inventory channel, not by underlying consumption. And so, I would say, 1% to 10% you'll recall includes Swisher, so it's a bit artificially high. We don't claim that that business is a 10% organic growth business. But the 7%, which also included Swisher, I would say, is artificially low versus what it would be. We think it's running at a fairly normal basis. In the fourth quarter, we're going to start annualizing against the Swisher acquisition as we move forward. But the underlying Institutional U.S. business, which is the one that impacted – created that delta most notably is fine. The underlying business is solid. I mentioned earlier it was – its underlying consumption rate was 6.3%. This is acquisition adjusted right in the third quarter versus 6.4% in the second quarter. So very steady.
Rosemarie Jeanne Morbelli - Gabelli & Company:
Do you think that the adjustment at the distributors level is done?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. I mean, there's only so much it can do. I don't even know that it was planned. Sometimes these are just frankly a function of what happens in the last days of a quarter and when orders happen. So I don't think it's significant. Yeah, there's not a lot of room for them to take out inventory. Let's put it that way.
Rosemarie Jeanne Morbelli - Gabelli & Company:
And, Doug, if we look at Europe and the weak economic environment, do you think that if deals, they stay flat going forward, you can still improve your margin by about 100 basis points a year?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. What I've always said, Rosemarie, is we need our nose above water, we don't need huge growth. Obviously, the faster we grow, the easier it is to generate the 100 basis points plus. We're in a position this year we'll exceed the 100 basis points again. I think that's – I don't know if this is our sixth year in a row now since we – I guess the fifth year in a row since we announced it. But we're in a very good position to go deliver this year and had terrific margin improvement in the third quarter. So I feel – I think we are going to keep our nose above water in the economic environment that we foresee in Europe, which is a bit softer than we've seen recently, and we'll continue to be able to generate a 100 plus basis points in margin improvement.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Scott Schneeberger with Oppenheimer & Company. Please proceed with your question.
Scott Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Thanks. Good afternoon. Doug, if I could circle back to when you were discussing Water in prepared remarks, you mentioned mining expected to rebound in the fourth quarter on easier comps. But you also mentioned benefit from new sales and just curious what you're seeing in mining as far as trends geographically and the health of the business. Obviously, you're talking up the trend, the momentum into 2017, but just curious on the clarity on mining specifically.
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. Well, I mean, mining went through a free fall itself, and I think what we've probably seen is some kind of stabilization in the base. And, of mining operators who, I think, can better predict going forward. We haven't seen any recovery in that business in terms of just mining activity. There's a lot of conversation in that industry about who is going to bet on the future and on increased demand because they're going to have to sink some capital to do it. So, really, the net new business we have and we have a number of technologies. These technologies can lower existing costs, reduce the amount of water that it takes to execute ex-mining. I mean, people are still mining. But that's what's really – that's what really drove the new sales. It wasn't some kind of pickup in mining activity from quarter-to-quarter.
Scott Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Okay. Thanks. And then with regard to Swisher, could you just give us a little bit of backdrop with regard to the divestiture and how things have gone with the retained portions? Thanks.
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. We divested the restroom cleaning portion of Swisher which interestingly was Swisher's original business. And that was a business that we always intended to divest even when we bought it. I mean, I guess, we had open minds that if it proved to us to be a lot more valuable to us than we suspected going in, but we never saw that business as a great fit for the way that we conduct business. It's a good business. It's just not necessarily a good business for us to own. And so as a consequence, we divested it. We thought we would be able to divest that a lot quicker than we did. If anything, it slowed us down on a few areas of synergies that we are now getting after i.e., we had to keep their operating center in Charlotte open much longer than we anticipated and some other things because that's where that business is run out of. And so we'll get on with it. The Swisher acquisition, I would say is largely on track. If you're going to pin me down and say where is it exactly, I mean, it's behind by weeks and it's in a position where that team will catch up quite quickly now that that divestiture is behind us. So that deal is going to ultimately turn out to be a absolute home run financially for us. It's just been a heck of a lot of work in terms of transitioning all the products to our formulas, moving them, they're still doing production, one, their warehouse to our warehouse and their factory to our factory, changing the way that they distribute because a lot of it was distributed by individual salespeople within Swisher and obviously that's not how we distribute our product for safety reasons as well as just control reasons and utilization of sales time efficiency. So for all kinds of reasons. So there's been a lot of transitioning going on. All of it is going quite well, but it's a lot of work. And so, I know that team is looking forward to start hitting to more normal operating situations, which they're entering now Q4 and Q1.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Dan Dolev with Nomura. Please proceed with your question.
Dan Dolev - Nomura Securities International, Inc.:
Hi. Thanks for taking my question. It sounds like the Energy estimate for the year is going to be a touch lower than what you initially guided to. I think you mentioned 12% decline versus 10% in July. A, is that true? And, B, can you give us the breakdown of the three sub segment in terms of Wellchem, downstream and then within production? Or C, can you give us sort of the usage and the pricing changes and how that changes from 3Q to 4Q? Thanks.
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. So, you're right. We had said it was going to be down around 10%, and now we've clarified it's going to be down around 12%. I would say from our view then to our view now, the macro theme is pretty consistent since second half is going to be better than the first half. It is. So the business is bottoming. It is. And then the specifics around where the business is going to park for the year is a little worse than we had anticipated. I'd say what's going on, I would, mostly downstream is a little softer than we had forecast at that time. There has been some new business that we've had that's been delayed, not permanently, but out a quarter or so. And then we had a couple of world events that I would say also nicked us, pipelines breaking, pulling out of Iraq, etcetera. But I don't know that that's really a material part of the story. I think the story on Energy is it's been a dramatic headwind for us over the last, if you will, six quarters, seven quarters. We're now starting to enter a period where we're going to start lapping, and it's going to quickly move from a headwind to a tailwind, almost under any normal scenario. If you don't believe oil is going to decline further from here, all it does is stabilize. I think it's accretive. If it happens to start picking up, it's going to be more accretive as we go forward. So, sub segments, sequentially we think OFC is the same or a little better. Downstream is going to be a little better, but going to be a little worse year-on-year. Also had one timers in that business last year. Wellchem is going to be a little better also Q4 to Q3. So kind of across the board we see minor sequential strengthening, but I underline minor. I think the business is stabilized, and we're in a good position to move into 2017.
Dan Dolev - Nomura Securities International, Inc.:
Great. And can you give us the 3Q ranges for those three sub segments if possible?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
In terms of sales growth?
Dan Dolev - Nomura Securities International, Inc.:
Yeah. I guess sales decline in WellChem, downstream growth, and then what happened in OFC?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. I would say we typically don't go into each of the details. I'd say downstream was modestly positive. OFC was modestly negative. And still the business that's been most impacted is Wellchem, but its decline has slowed considerably as it starts lapping last year's numbers.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. And I would like to turn the call back to Mr. Monahan for closing remarks.
Michael J. Monahan - Ecolab, Inc.:
That wraps up our third quarter conference call. This conference call and the associated discussion and slides will be available for replay on our website. Thanks for your time and participation, and our best wishes for the rest of the day.
Operator:
Thank you. This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.
Executives:
Michael J. Monahan - Ecolab, Inc. Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.
Analysts:
Nate J. Brochmann - William Blair & Co. LLC John Quealy - Canaccord Genuity, Inc. Gary Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC Daniel Rizzo - Jefferies LLC David E. Ridley-Lane - Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith, Inc. Manav Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc. Shlomo Rosenbaum - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc. David I. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Andrew John Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker) Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC Michael Joseph Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC Rosemarie Jeanne Morbelli - Gabelli & Company Robert Andrew Koort - Goldman Sachs & Co. Christopher S. Parkinson - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker) Scott Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker) Edlain Rodriguez - UBS Securities LLC
Operator:
Greetings, and welcome to the Ecolab Second Quarter 2016 Earnings Release Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mike Monahan, Senior Vice President, External Relations. Thank you, Mr. Monahan, you may now begin.
Michael J. Monahan - Ecolab, Inc.:
Thank you. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Ecolab's Second Quarter Conference Call. With me today is Doug Baker, Ecolab's Chairman and CEO. [Technical Difficulty] (1:03-1:07)
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
...on the conference call. Hello? Did we lose it?
Operator:
You're still connected, Mr. Monahan. Please go ahead.
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Okay. Thank you.
Michael J. Monahan - Ecolab, Inc.:
Okay. Sorry. We've got an odd dial tone. All right. A discussion of our results, along with earnings release and the slides referencing our quarter's results and our outlook are available on Ecolab's website at ecolab.com/investor. Please take a moment to read the cautionary statements on these materials stating that this teleconference, the discussion and the slides include estimates of future performance. These are forward-looking statements and actual results could differ materially from those projected. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are described in the section of our most recent Form 10-K under Item 1A, Risk Factors, and in our posted materials. We also refer you to the supplemental diluted earnings per share information in the release. Starting with a brief overview of the quarter, continued attractive new account gains and new product introductions drove strong acquisition-adjusted fixed currency sales growth in our Global, Institutional, Industrial and Other segments during the second quarter, nearly offsetting a decline in Energy sales. New business and ongoing cost efficiency work led the adjusted fixed currency operating margin expansion, more than offsetting the impact of soft economies, challenging end markets and continued currency headwinds. These, along with lower taxes and shares outstanding, drove the 7% adjusted earnings per share increase before currency translation. While Energy segment results have been challenging, we believe that recent trends suggest the bottoming of our energy cycle, and we expect second half Energy segment sequential results to reflect that stabilization. We look for the market recovery to begin gradually and take hold in 2017 and improve through 2018 and 2019, and for the Energy segment to show results reflecting that market improvement. Looking to the third quarter, we expect our Global Institutional, Industrial and Other segments to continue to show further strong acquisition adjusted fixed currency growth outpacing their markets in soft international economies as they leverage investments we have made to further improve sales and service force effectiveness and profitability and more than offset lower year-on-year results from our Energy business. We look for the third quarter adjusted diluted earnings per share to be in the $1.24 to $1.32 range, with that range including approximately $0.08 per share or 6% of unfavorable impact from the Venezuela devaluation and deconsolidation, and currency translation as we continue to aggressively drive business growth. For the full year, the Global Institutional, Industrial and Other segments are expected to continue to show strong acquisition adjusted fixed currency growth. Energy year-on-year sales comparisons should improve versus the first half and for the full year are expected to decline around 10% versus the last year. We continue to expect to outperform our markets in 2016 while also investing in the key drivers for future sustainable above-average earnings growth. We expect our consolidated results to show improving comparisons in the second half and have narrowed our forecast for adjusted diluted earnings per share in 2016 to the $4.35 to $4.50 range from $4.35 to $4.55, which includes expected currency headwinds of $0.27 to $0.32 per share of which $0.17 per share is from the Venezuela devaluation and deconsolidation. Moving to some highlights from the quarter, and as discussed in our press release, reported second quarter diluted earnings per share were $0.87. On an adjusted basis, excluding special gains and charges and discrete tax items from both years, second quarter 2016 adjusted diluted earnings per share were $1.08 and included $0.08 or 7% currency headwinds. This compared with adjusted diluted earnings per share of $1.08 a year ago. The adjusted diluted earnings per share growth was driven by delivered product and other cost savings, cost efficiencies and lower taxes and shares which offset investments in the business and higher variable compensation. Our consolidated acquisition adjusted fixed currency sales were modestly lower as our Global Institutional, Industrial and Other segments grew 4%, but were offset by lower Energy sales. Regional sales growth was led by Latin America and Europe. Reported operating margins declined 50 basis points. Adjusted fixed currency operating margins expanded 30 basis points as delivered product and other cost savings and cost efficiencies offset investments in the business, higher variable compensation and lower Energy results. In 2016's difficult environment, we are focused on driving new business gains by helping customers lower costs. We are using our industry-leading product innovation and service strengths to help customers achieve the best results and the lowest operating costs, and through these, aggressively drive new account gains across all of our segments. We expect third quarter adjusted diluted earnings per share in the $1.24 to $1.32 range, reflecting a combined Venezuela devaluation and deconsolidation impact and currency translation drag of approximately $0.08 or 6%. Consolidated results are expected to improve with the second half outperforming the first half. We narrowed our full-year adjusted diluted earnings per share forecast to the $4.35 to $4.50 per share range from $4.35 to $4.55. This forecast includes expected unfavorable currency exchange in the $0.27 to $0.32 per share range of which $0.17 per share is from the Venezuela devaluation and deconsolidation. In summary, despite a very challenging global economic and market environment, we expect to continue to deliver solid fundamental results in 2016. We remain confident in our business, our markets and our people, as well as our capacities to meet our aggressive growth objectives over the coming years. And now, here's Doug Baker with some comments.
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Thank you, Mike. Hello, everybody. Just a couple of thoughts on the quarter and the second half of the year. So, Q2 results were solid, particularly given the environment. So, adjusted EPS was flat versus last year, but plus 7% excluding currency. And if you look at operating cash flow, it was up 37% versus last year for the first half. So, these results are driven by continued strong performance, as Mike just went through, in our Institutional, Industrial and Other segments. Those segments combined had a 6.5% top line growth, 4% organic. Our Energy segment is stabilizing. If you look at Q2 sales and OI, they're very much in line with Q1, with sales off about $5 million but OI is stronger in Q2. Importantly, if you look at underlying metrics, what we call our leading indicators, both our new business and innovation metrics remained strong. We believe it will strengthen throughout the year. We expect a strong second half as a result; so that will be driven again by continued strong Industrial, Institutional and Other performances. We will see a lessening Energy and FX headwinds we are forecasting in the second half. Energy is really driven principally by an easier base because last year we have seen more of the drop in the second half than the first, so the base is just simpler to compare against. FX is our forecast, but really we're annualizing against last year's big second half move, and we predict that FX will be close to neutral, modest negative in the fourth quarter, but obviously coming out and being more neutral going into 2017. Last thing, I guess, I would highlight is a real callout to our team who I think is doing a great, great job in a very tough environment. We remain focused on what we can control, we're getting after new business, we're driving innovation, we're taking care of customers. We're doing a terrific job there. We continue to invest in the future. We're managing the business the right way, particularly around cash flow metrics and working capital, and we're are also continuing to focus on delivering in the short term while doing all of these. So I'm very proud of the team and proud of the performance. And importantly, happy to be moving into the second half where we're starting to see a little less of a headwind that we've seen in the last six quarters. So with that, now let me turn it back over to Mike to introduce Q&A.
Michael J. Monahan - Ecolab, Inc.:
Thank you, Doug. That concludes our formal remarks. Operator, please begin the question-and-answer period.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll now be conducting a question-and-answer session. We ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one brief follow-up question per caller, so that others will have a chance to participate. Our first question is from the line of Nate Brochmann with William Blair. Please proceed with your questions.
Nate J. Brochmann - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Yeah, I wondered, Doug, just talk a little bit on the charge in the Energy business this quarter, was that just kind of a little bit of cleanup there in that business with a few more head count reductions and the inventory adjustment or do you see there being a little bit more to come? It seems like that could be an additional sign that you're also really seeing the bottom there.
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, well, Nate, yeah, I would say, our view is that we have bottomed or are bottoming in an Energy segment. As a consequence, we felt it was a good time for us to analyze what assets were actually going to be useful or not useful, given the change in the Energy business. So, we chose the timing based on our belief that we are at the bottom and starting to move into an inflection point, though as I've said before, coming out angle is going to be a lot lower than the coming in angle. So, it's not going to be an equal recovery. It's going to take more time to get out. But it's basically looking at our inventory situation, we had made product which made a lot of sense in the previous environment, i.e., guar replacements and the like, and given the drop-off in the guar market, they don't make sense anymore. And so, that would be an example of the type of inventory that we disposed of. Simply, it made a lot of sense two years ago; doesn't make a lot of sense in this environment. And likewise in some of the capital, it could have been some fleet assets or some mixing vessels, et cetera, that just aren't going to be productive going forward, and so we felt it was the right thing to do to take these off the balance sheet. So, really the timing was as you said, and we do believe that this represents the "re-look" at the assets as a consequence of the change in the energy market. We don't believe there is more to come, but also it's hard to predict the future. But that was the idea.
Nate J. Brochmann - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Okay. Fair enough. And then second, in terms of a follow-up question, obviously you continue to see that nice gross margin expansion. I know part of that is due to the lower raw materials and part of that is due to just ongoing internal initiatives. I was wondering if you could kind of give us a little bit of flavor for the two buckets, and then what to expect here going forward as we probably lose a little bit of that benefit on the raw materials side?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, similar to where we stood at the end of the first quarter, we are still forecasting a modest increase in raw material prices in the fourth quarter. And that's still our view. I would say, the likelihood of that has lessened and not increased as time's gone on, but that's still the forecast. I would say, our ability to drive gross profit isn't solely dependent on raw materials. Obviously, it's pricing, timing and volume. And we believe we'll be able to manage through any raw material rise that we're likely to experience just as we've successfully managed through 2004, 2009, 2010 and 2013, 2014, et cetera.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of John Quealy with Canaccord Genuity. Please proceed with your questions.
John Quealy - Canaccord Genuity, Inc.:
Hi. Good afternoon. Congratulations on the execution. First question, within Global Institutional, some very healthy organic growth there. Can you talk about some of the derivative constituent parts, how it's trending, lodging, QSR, restaurants, anything you can give us around price versus share? And then, I have a follow-up. Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, most of the growth in both specialty and institutional businesses is volume driven. You have exceptions like Latin America where you just have high inflation where we're going after and getting significant price because it's a must, given the environment. In terms of underlying business performance, we've never had a one-to-one on foot traffic and we're watching some of the same foot traffic reports that probably everybody else is. I would say broadly in the full-service restaurant area, foot traffic has been soft for literally seven years or eight years, so it hasn't been our principal driver. It's really our ability to drive share based on our technology's capability of lowering costs for our customers. And that's going to remain, we think, in the forefront of how we're going to continue to drive share. And (15:31-15:35) to make sure that we're focusing on what our customer needs are, expanding with them as they expand geographically, and seeking out new QSR customers, particularly outside of the U.S. as they emerge in different markets. And all of those strategies continue to work. We think that both Institutional and Specialty will continue to perform well throughout the balance of the year.
John Quealy - Canaccord Genuity, Inc.:
Great. Thank you. And as a follow-up, making a comment on your equity investment in Aquatech in the water space. Can you talk about the broader capital deployment? Are we likely to see more smaller venture type or emerging growth type investments, or how does that landscape look to you folks for the balance of the year? Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. I would say Aquatech is somewhat unique. More frequently, we're buying companies as opposed to making equity investments in companies. Here it made sense to make the type of investment we're making given the matching capabilities of what we are looking to try to do, we thought it was a wise way to proceed. I would say in the M&A front generally, I'm quite comfortable that if you take some kind of midpoint of a range around 3% of sales that, without doing anything outsized, there's enough attractive targets out there to continue to add approximately 3% to the sales line. I think you're seeing that through announcements like Anios and other smaller announcements this year. In terms of appetite, it's not that we don't have an appetite for a bigger deal. I think we'd be in a position to do one both on the balance sheet and I would say, most importantly, internally with management capacity and capability. But that's really going to be determined by mutual interest coming to a place where economically it makes sense. And these things, you have to be a little more patient around. So I would expect more smaller deals in the near-term.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Gary Bisbee with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
Gary Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Hi, guys. If I could follow-up on that last one. I think historically over the long-term prior to big deals you talked about adding a couple percent from lock-on M&A, but typically not a lot of profits in the first year and then that ramp thereafter. Is that still the right way to think about it? And I guess as part two of that, I guess we're getting closer to year in on Swisher. How is that looking specifically from a profitability perspective?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, when we did the – so I'll answer the last question first. Swisher. Swisher is more or less on plan and as we predicted at the time we bought it we said the first four quarters of ownership would be likely negative. Obviously we bought that asset at a pretty low price. It was at a low price for a reason. It didn't make any money. It was likely losing money. And we wanted to turn that around over time because we're quite sensitive. We want to remain in control of keeping the volume and the customers happy. So I would say that's progressing and we'll start seeing positive out of Swisher either Q4 of this year or Q1 next year. So no different. I'd say I think your formulaic statement around; we get the sales first and the profit next. I think it's more true than not. It's field-dependent. We – the metric we pay most attention to is return when we're doing deals, not accretion dilution. Swisher would be a good example of that. Dilutive the first year, but a hell of a return if we're able to execute on it and we think we will be able to. That's how we like to focus on doing deals. And so we're just not as sensitive to first-year profitability on these as long as we think the return's going to be great. Now we're not against first-year profitability either, but often it will come hand-in-hand. So I think that's how I think about it. But if you do a series of these year-in, year-out, it sort of takes care of itself because you build up a number of annuity streams and you're making money on the deal over any reasonable period of time
Gary Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Great. Thanks. And then the follow-up. Obviously interest rates have come down a lot since the Brexit situation. And I guess it seems to me you're likely to face another pension headwind next year if rates stay where they are. Is it too early to get a sense of the size of what that could be, or should we think of the average of the last couple of years when it was at $0.10 or $0.20 headwind? Is that possible? Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
It's a math formula. So if you drew a line right now and said, this is the interest rate, it'd be $0.04 to $0.05 negative next year in that range. So like 1%. I don't think it's going to swamp the boat. I'd rather have a point favorable, but that's the type of impact you'd be looking at.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies. Please proceed with your questions.
Daniel Rizzo - Jefferies LLC:
Hi. This is Dan Rizzo on for Laurence. I just wanted an update on how the market dynamics have shifted, particularly in Europe and the U.S. if anything's changed at all?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, U.S., I would say isn't much different than we expected this year. We never have high expectations. We always go into these years thinking that growth is going be more similar in the past couple years – and there's no magic second-half inflection point – seems to be regularly forecast but rarely realized. So U.S., we haven't seen a huge change. I think there is a bit of a consumer spend hiccup in April, May but that seems to have evened out a bit. In terms of Europe, I don't know that – I would say the more – the bigger impact in the near-term has been around – from terrorism, not British exit. And I think British exit may well indeed have significant impact on Europe in total. I guess it's too early to recognize that at this point in time. But terrorism certainly, where it's hit, though, obviously, the Turkish tourism business is way off for two reasons
Daniel Rizzo - Jefferies LLC:
Okay. And then my second question is just with the vitality index, I think the bogey is like 35%. Are you at or near that or a little above, a little below? Just a color there, please.
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, we're right around 30%. And the 35%, it's a little different by business unit. I think on average now, we'd say it's around 33%. So we're just under our target.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of David Ridley-Lane with Bank of America. Please proceed with your questions.
David E. Ridley-Lane - Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith, Inc.:
Sure. Can you compare the overall new business sold in the first half of 2016 versus first half 2015?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, I think we are plus – I think we're off a couple points year-on-year versus where we were last year, which isn't unusual. But we're basically running at the same elevated rate.
David E. Ridley-Lane - Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith, Inc.:
And then as a follow-up, on the energy charge, can you sort of size what percentage of head count was taken out or give some way of thinking about the SG&A benefits from that charge on a go-forward basis?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, David, if this is wrong, we'll come back and correct. I think what this was, was the number – probably 4% to 5% of head count in the company is what it represented roughly.
David E. Ridley-Lane - Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith, Inc.:
Got it. Thank you very much
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
You bet.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Manav Patnaik with Barclays. Please proceed with your questions.
Manav Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Yeah, thank you. I just wanted to ask again about the energy recovery in the second half. Is that just more of an easier comps issue? Or – and just curious with oil trading back lower and maybe building some cushion in for the year, just curious, and maybe if you could give us some color on the different parts of that energy breakout and what are you expecting in each?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, we expect continued softness, clearly, in the WellChem business, in particular. OFC less so, but still soft and downstream continuing to grow in the second half, even modestly better than the first half growth. Some of that is just year-on-year timing as well. But mostly, Manav, what this is, is easier comps. There is a minor benefit from – there's some seasonality. We are not anticipating or expecting any upturn in energy market activity in the second half from really first half levels. We do believe that you continue to have the correction that we've been seeing in terms of supply and demand in the overall oil market. That continues to narrow which we believe is the metric to watch more so than price. Price has seasonal components to it too. We believe that we are likely to see softening of price as the summer ended. It was predicted by many in the industry. I know many are acting surprised, but that was a common prediction and so we still think that the key metrics are supply and demand. They are narrowing. That's what's going to drive correction and price over any period of time, but we don't see any real activity recovery until 2017.
Manav Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Got it. And just to touch on the Anios deal I guess, if I said that correctly, the healthcare deal, but just some – the strategy there, is that more of the typical tuck-in that you do? Or what should we expect in the healthcare area?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, I mean healthcare remains obviously one of our real focus areas, and our healthcare business in the second quarter had 4% sales so we're seeing the recovery and improvement that we've been talking about in that business, and we anticipate a better second half in that business even before we close on Anios. So the Anios business and the rationale is, one, it's in very similar businesses, has some excellent technology which we can leverage throughout the other geographic parts of our business. It's a great geographic footprint match with our current European business, i.e. where they're strong, we're almost non-existent and vice versa, so it's an almost ideal puzzle piece from that standpoint. And then the Anios brand is a strong brand, and we see it as a great way to go drive penetration in markets that may not be large enough for us to build our own locally focused healthcare organization, but still develop a very strong distributor-base strategy leveraging a very strong global brand name like Anios. So that's the basics of that deal.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question will be coming from the line of Shlomo Rosenbaum with Stifel. Please proceed with your questions.
Shlomo Rosenbaum - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Hi. Thank you very much for taking my questions. Hey, Doug, just in a kind of a general question here. Outside of the Energy business, your other businesses are growing 4% organic. Given the overall global environment and market that we're in, does that feel like the right way to think about this going forward? Or you feel that there's levers to really accelerate the items from 4% to 5% to 6% in the current environment? And then potentially – excluding energy is kind of a wild card here?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, I think the 4% is a bit understated versus what the actual performance is. Yes. If you said the global environment is going to be static here because you've got a number of industries which are going through major contractions as a consequence of change in economic environment, specifically primary metals, steel, et cetera, which are big water technology consumers for us, have been contracting. That's got a half-life. They've stopped contracting. While they may not rebuild, you do run into year-on-year base. Mining is obviously going through a major shift, and so you've got these – mining was down 10%. We've got some large pieces of our heavy water business down double-digits as well. That stuff will moderate over time even if the economy doesn't improve from here. So I really think much of our business is growing call it more like around the 5% zone. I don't think that's an unusual expectation or an unrealistic expectation in a modest-growth economy, which we're in globally. So I would probably pin it around there. I think it's going to take a better economy to get us firmly in the 6% to 8% over an extended period of time, and we're welcome to prove that out if the economic gods would benefit us with a better economy.
Shlomo Rosenbaum - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay. And then as a follow-up, can you talk a little bit about healthcare and just the expectation for it to get better in the second half? We've seen a number of times where healthcare has kind of spiked up and then come back down. I guess you could call them head fakes or however you want to refer to them, but what gives you the confidence that we're actually going to see some consistent improvement?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, I think last year would probably be the only head fake I really know about and the head fake last year was called a recall, which feeds into this year's confidence that we're going to have a much stronger second half than the first because you're going against the recall base, which we talked obviously about last year in both our third and fourth quarter call. But if you look at the fundamentals in that business, we're having more success than we've ever had in terms of selling new customers on our programs. That's the fundamental that we look at and why we're bullish on this business. So we got a good team, much better execution, the work that we did when we "put the business in the shop" I think is really paying off, and the team execution is quite strong right now. That's really the bullishness
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your questions.
David I. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Thank you. Doug, on Energy in terms of pricing. Did pricing declines accelerate at all this quarter or have they been stable at these levels?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, they've been fairly stable. I mean, I think we're in our peak decline, if you will, sort of the culmination of pricing moves taken last year and pricing moves taken this year in the third quarter. It's modestly different than what we've experienced in the second quarter, and then we expect it to start improving from there. So we're right around the bottom of the price impact, as well, too.
David I. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
And I noticed earlier for 2017, but at current oil prices I guess you would say you could grow earnings in energy next year. Can you describe maybe how and how much, perhaps, as an early read for 2017?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, it is early. So I would have to ask you a number of other questions about what assumptions you've got for the market. If they're this assumption which is that you do see modest oil price recovery next year where it's – or let's call it $50, $55 for a continued period of time which is what we believe and you start seeing a very modest pickup in activity in 2017, we think that we'll see modest growth which we talked about previously. Call it mid-single-digits and in that scenario, just the volume leverage, overhead coverage leverage alone you would see sizable improvement in operating income from that business. That would – we do not believe next year is going to be a price recovery year simply because typically it's probably going to have to move into 2018 before we see substantial price recovery. The price recovery alone isn't needed to see improved margins or improved profits.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of Andrew Wittmann with Robert W. Baird. Please proceed with your question.
Andrew John Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Great. I wanted to just build on the prior question. Doug, you mentioned that there's – the businesses may be understating its growth because of some of the headwinds and hopefully, heavy water. Where are we on those heavy water industries? You mentioned steel and mining that are dragging. Are those comps bottoming? Clearly the comment on energy, I just don't know about these other quantities.
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, I think we believe mining; we come out of it fourth quarter or first quarter. We are annualizing against kind of the significant change that occurred in that market. Likewise, I would also say in heavy water the segments are under pressure there. It would be around the same timing. There's some in Q4, some in Q1, but call it end of the year
Andrew John Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Okay. Great. And then just – it was interesting to hear the comments that your consolidated overall revenue growth was driven by Latin America and Europe. It seems a little bit idiosyncratic with some of the global economies. Can you just talk about what was driving that? Was it your sales execution or are you seeing better fundamental trends in some of those markets than you are in the more mature North America market?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, our sales in North America ex-energy were clearly stronger than Europe. Substantially. I would say Energy's impact, negative impact, was principally North American story. So that's really the North American perspective. Europe, I think the Europe team's been doing an outstanding job and since last year when we started getting some sales traction they've been on the fundamentals that drive it, which is new business and innovation, and they're doing a good job executing it in spite of obviously a less-than-robust economy. Latin America, we've got very modest volume growth in Latin America but a very strong pricing impacts, which is I said earlier were and are critical given the high inflation in those markets which is really driven by their currency devaluation. So they import a lot of technology and a lot of raw materials, and those raws cost more in those markets as a consequence of their currency moves and we had to get pricing to negate that and we are. So that's – I guess, the perspective I have on those regions. So L.A. we continue to get modest market share gains with significant pricing gains.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of Dmitry Silversteyn with Longbow Research. Please go ahead with your questions.
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC:
Good afternoon. A couple of questions, if I may. First of all, can you talk a little bit about what's going on in the Food and Beverage market? We've seen growth there over the first six months or so, a little bit slower than it's been in the past. Are you anniversary-ing some of the share gains you've gotten, or is the overall market a little bit lighter in terms of demand? Can you just give us a little bit more view on what's going on and what you expect to go on there in the second half of the year?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, I guess second half we would expect F&B to be equal or a little better than you've seen in the first half. And as 4% probably moving into the 5% range is sort of the range that we're talking about. I'd say F&B continues to perform well. It's got pretty even execution around the globe. But you've seen a lot of consolidation, particularly in the North American market as there's been real pressure on a number of processed food companies, there's been a number of large acquisitions, both executed and considered. And so when two big companies get together they tend to drive synergies, which means fewer plants and what we would like is more food produced in more plants. That's not exactly how our customers view it, so they like more food produced in less plants and as a result we've got to go work through those things. But we've been doing this off and on, this goes in cycles. We're just going through another one, and this too has an end. But at the end of the day we continue to drive share in that business. We've got great new technologies coming out, particularly in the antimicrobial areas. So I'm quite bullish about F&B's near-term future and long-term future.
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC:
Okay, Doug. And then as a follow-up, I think you mentioned that you expect some raw material inflation in the back half of the year. Can you talk a little bit about sort of where you see that coming from, whether it's petrochemical side or non-petrochemical side of the equation, or – I'm just – I'm not seeing a lot of sort of raw material pressure, so I'm just wondering where you're seeing them.
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, we see some of it in the caustic area and have already seen some. But also our forecast is a bit asymmetrical, i.e. no real pickup in activity, not significant price change in the oil market, yet we do have forecast some petrochemical raw materials increasing. But you need this in a forecast because I promise you maybe that's conservative. I promise other things that we think are conservative are going to prove to be not conservative, and so it's just what's in our forecast today as we go forward, and as I mentioned earlier I would say the likelihood of that increase is less now than it was a quarter ago but we'll see. We've remained with that in our forecast.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Mike Harrison with Seaport Global. Please proceed with your question.
Michael Joseph Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC:
Hi. Good afternoon. Thanks. Wanted to ask another question just on the energy front, just on maybe the pace or trajectory of recovery. You mentioned, Doug, that you didn't think it would be the same angle of recovery as the angle of decline. Then you also mentioned you expected a sizable improvement in operating income, even with a mid-single-digit top line improvement next year. When you say sizable, I think the consensus number for EBIT growth next year in energy is around 20%, 25%. Is that the type of growth you think we should be baking in or is that aggressive?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, one, I would say – I don't want to get pinned down on exactly what we think energy EBIT growth will be next year, simply because we are just initiating our planning cycle as we go through and taking a view on what we believe raws are going to do next year as well as the market and everything else. So if you would, we'll give more transparency into that expectation as the year goes on. But right now, it seems to be – it's just too early for us to do that in good conscience because our odds of being a right are even smaller than they will be in December. Now with that said, when you have volume degradation in a business, particularly after X, you just see a lot of margin chewed up because you no longer are getting coverage. And so you will see, I think a march back on OI that is different on sales, simply because as you get some nominal volume coverage, it starts rebuilding overhead coverage. And you also get out of cutting inventories and back into even building inventories. And so, this thing is always a little bit pro-cyclical on how you have to manage inventories and everything else. It accentuates the negative, and probably in a small way, accentuates the positive when you get out of it.
Michael Joseph Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC:
All right. Thank you. And then, just was wondering if you could talk a little bit about the higher variable comp that you saw. You called it out in both the Industrial and Institutional segments, is that a headwind that we should expect to kind of continue at this pace into the second half? Or was there maybe some catch-up that happened during Q2 that makes the Q2 margin hit a little bit worse than we should expect going forward?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. I mean fundamentally, it's bonus rebuild. We had given ourselves purposely an extremely challenging target last year, knowing it's going to be a difficult year. Our philosophy is always shareholders get paid first, management second. It was a tough year last. There is some, right now, on forecast required bonus rebuild year-on-year. That's what you're seeing. It's at its worst in the second quarter, but you will still see some in the third quarter and fourth quarter.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Rosemarie Morbelli with Gabelli & Company. Please proceed with your questions.
Rosemarie Jeanne Morbelli - Gabelli & Company:
Thank you and good afternoon, everyone. Doug, I was wondering if you could give us a little more on Laboratoires Anios. For example, what kind of growth rate did they have in the past several years? And then looking at your own healthcare growing at 4%, what do you think they could do as a combined entity?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah – no, they were growing mid-single digits, it's what they've been growing regularly for a long period of time. I think two things. As I mentioned when I talked about the rationale for buying a geographic footprint but also this opportunity it prevents that they couldn't fully capitalize on without us, i.e., this expansion geographically. And we didn't have the product line and even some of the registrations that they do to accelerate it without them. And so, this is one of those opportunities that is occurring because we're joining forces, i.e., how do you get out and aggressively exploit the opportunity Anios has geographically outside of Europe. And we think it's significant, given our existing footprint or ability to do this quickly because we already have legal entities, capability to manage billing, people, and all the rest in all these markets. We can turn on a dime to do this, whereas obviously, it would be much more difficult for them. So, that's some of the unique growth opportunities it presents. There's also technology they have that we think will feed our other geographies and vice versa. So, we believe there's a lot of compatibilities and synergies on the top line as well.
Rosemarie Jeanne Morbelli - Gabelli & Company:
So, when you look at this, they are 5%, you are 4%. Then, is it fair to say that by 2018, giving you a year to start getting those two things together, we could approach that 6% to 8% top line growth?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, I'd be disappointed if we weren't there maybe even sooner. So, we expect our healthcare business to be upper single-digit organic growth business.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of Bob Koort with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.
Robert Andrew Koort - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thank you. Doug, I wanted to ask on the Energy, the ascent out of the trough here. I know in the early days of the decline, maybe before it was as deep or maybe as long, as it's turned out, you guys thought you would get pricing back pretty quickly across your product line, maybe concede some in the short run to retain the volumes, but able to push prices later. I know in your comments a minute ago you mentioned seeing some price hikes for your Energy service business. Can you talk about whether that rate of improvement is different given the longer recovery that you've talked about?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, no, Bob. I think, I wouldn't expect – what I'm talking about in terms of – we think third quarter is probably our peak pain in terms of pricing year-on-year. We're still going to have negative pricing for a few quarters after that before you start annualizing against the price concessions that we've made in the industry. But we don't expect that we're going to have price increases, and I'm talking broadly. Will there be one exception? I'm sure there will be. But broadly in the energy market in 2017, we think that's more likely a 2018 and 2019 story as that market heals, recovers, and activity levels have to ramp up significantly in those years to fill in the hole that's been created by the capital that's been yanked out of this industry. And so, we really think it takes that kind of accelerated activity to create an environment where you're going to see pricing. Others in this industry have talked about getting pricing sooner, but I would say, they're in parts of the industry where they've had much more dramatic price decreases than we have. Remember, we're talking in total on average, several percentage points, not 15% and 20% type reductions. And so, they're in a very different situation, and frankly probably have to get pricing to be healthy enough to continue to operate in those industries.
Robert Andrew Koort - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
That's helpful. Thanks. And then, second question, is there going to be any sort of blip from Olympic space gains in South American business, or is it just really not material?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
We go through this every four years. We tend to do a lot of the Olympic business too. Historically, you may see a blip in that country, but it doesn't seem to manifest itself in the total numbers. So, I don't think so. I certainly wouldn't bet on it. I will say this, we have, as a consequence of the Zika virus issue, legitimate concern comes up with new mosquito programs, et cetera, which we are selling and providing to customers in Latin America and now increasingly in the Southern part of the U.S.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of Christopher Parkinson with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.
Christopher S. Parkinson - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Perfect. Thank you very much. You hit on this a little, but within water, you highlighted that mining was still down double digits but regionally LatAm was strong along with Europe, with APAC and North America little weak. I just had two quick questions. First, can you just parse out some of the key regional trends here and kind of what's driving that and then comment when you expect to lap the comps in mining? And two, were there any changes or whatsoever throughout the quarter within heavy industry, and what would be your updated outlook here? Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah. No. I would say, one, and I'm going from memory here, that mining, in particular, pressure is – China and North America is the major pressure. And in other markets, its continued to perform well, including in Australia, which has real mining pressure broadly, but through technologies and others, we continue to do decently. Mining was negative 17% the first quarter, minus 10% this quarter, probably going to see a similar result in the third quarter, improved result in the fourth quarter. And I think you come out of it – and are probably in a position where you can grow that business again in 2017. Heavy, the pressure there is primary metals in particular, and it's growing, but very modestly, and I think that's what we're going to see in the second half. You're not going to see a significant upturn, but we do believe we'll see one early in 2017, as you start annualizing against some of the pain in that business and start moving forward. In the light side of water, so water heavy and light combined were up about 4% in this quarter, light continues to be very strong upper single-digit organic growth. We see that continuing. That's the largest of the businesses, and it's really got very strong momentum. We've reemphasized that, put new technology in there. And we're very, very pleased with what's going on in the light water business.
Christopher S. Parkinson - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
That's great color. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Scott Schneeberger with Oppenheimer. Please proceed with your question.
Scott Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Thanks. You guys mentioned new product introduction drove market share gains, and just curious how the R&D budget looks, the new initiatives that you have coming out? So I guess, Doug, the question is what kind of impact in the current quarter and will you see going forward from new product development?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, our R&D budget – and GAAP has us only reporting on that that's really focused on kind of our traditional chemistry R&D and the like, continues to stay at about the same percentage of sales, but as sales has grown, the R&D budget would be expected to continue to grow. The other area that really is R&D for us is our fuel technology and our customer connection technology, which is also in large part driven both by (52:36) group and our Chief Technology Officer. That area has gotten significant increased investment and will continue to do so. If you look at our combined technology and R&D budget, it's up significantly this year versus last year. Last year was up versus the prior year. We have not blinked in terms of making long-term investments in our business. We have not taken any dollar off the table there. We want to continue to manage this business wisely, which means make your long-term investments. January comes every year. We're working to go manage our cash flow and working capital intelligently which means take it out of the business even when it had adverse impacts in your quarterly results because when you reduce inventory, you reduce PLOH, overhead coverage but it's important that we get inventory down, and we've been driving it down. I think we're $200 million-plus in terms of reduced working capital year-on-year first half versus second half, so that's an important metric for us to continue to drive. We want to make sure that we not only deliver very, very good EPS numbers but very good cash flow numbers as well because at the end of the day, that's what drives shareholder value. So, those are our focus areas. So, R&D will continue to get its investment. I don't care how bad the economy is.
Scott Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Great. Thanks. And then I can – probably could guess what the answer, but you now have a bit tighter of a guidance range for the back half of the year. I'm curious just, is it simply economy forex oil prices or is there more to what might be the swing factors to put you at the higher or lower end of that range? Thanks.
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
I don't know. I think you covered the big three. And I don't think it's really oil price, to be honest, unless unnaturally craters. I think it's really continuing to watch the oil demand and supply gap. If it continues to narrow, then you're going to see a recovery in the industry in terms of activity, and if it doesn't, you won't. So, that's what we pay attention to in FX. Who knows?
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line Edlain Rodriguez with UBS. Please proceed with your question.
Edlain Rodriguez - UBS Securities LLC:
Thank you. Good afternoon, guys. Doug, one quick question. Energy clearly has been problematic, but as you look into 2017, looking at the rest of the portfolio, like any other areas there that concern you at all?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Oh, well. Yeah, I mean, we spend all our day looking for stuff to be concerned with. And of course, we're in 172 countries, so there's plenty of materials to seek out. I would say though on a broad basis, no, I think our businesses are in good shape in terms of competitive position, innovation pipeline, team health and the like. I think they should continue to perform as they've performed in recent years. They're going to have unique challenges to deal with every year, just as we've had in the past. I guess – everybody's guess is it may be raw materials last year, but I think we've proven that we can successfully manage through that, given what we've done in the last, call it, 10 plus years. So, I would say I don't think there's any real standouts. I think it's key to stay nimble. This environment's very hard to predict. We want to make sure that we can react to both opportunities and challenges quickly and get after them, and make sure that we maintain our focus on fundamentals while dealing with whatever the challenge and/or opportunity is du jour (56:29). And I think the team's done a heck of a job doing that over the last whatever period of time you want to look at.
Edlain Rodriguez - UBS Securities LLC:
Perfect. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. This concludes the question-and-answer portion of our call. I'd like to turn the floor back to Mike Monahan for closing remarks
Michael J. Monahan - Ecolab, Inc.:
Thank you. That wraps up our second quarter conference call. This conference call and the associated discussion and slides will be available for replay on our website. Thanks for your time and participation, and our best wishes for the rest of the day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.
Executives:
Michael J. Monahan - Senior Vice President External Relations Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer
Analysts:
Gary Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC Nate J. Brochmann - William Blair & Co. LLC Laurence Alexander - Jefferies LLC David E. Ridley-Lane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch John Quealy - Canaccord Genuity, Inc. Manav Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc. Shlomo Rosenbaum - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc. David I. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Andrew John Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker) Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC John Roberts - UBS Securities LLC Michael Joseph Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC Hamzah Mazari - CRT Capital Group LLC Rosemarie Jeanne Morbelli - Gabelli & Company Christopher Evans - Goldman Sachs & Co. Christopher S. Parkinson - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker) Scott Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker) Dan Dolev - Nomura Securities International, Inc.
Operator:
Greetings, and welcome to Ecolab's First Quarter 2016 Earnings Release Conference Call. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Michael Monahan, Senior Vice President, External Relations. Thank you. You may begin.
Michael J. Monahan - Senior Vice President External Relations:
Thank you. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Ecolab's first quarter conference call. With me today are Doug Baker, Ecolab's Chairman and CEO; and Dan Schmechel, our CFO. A discussion of results, along with our earnings release and the slides referencing the quarter's results and our outlook, are available on Ecolab's website at ecolab.com/investor. Please take a moment to read the cautionary statements on these materials, stating that this teleconference, the discussion and slides include estimates of future performance. These are forward-looking statements, and actual results could differ materially from those projected. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are described in the section of our most recent Form 10-K under item 1A, risk factors, and in our posted materials. We also refer you to the supplemental diluted earnings per share information in the release. Starting with a brief overview of the quarter, continued attractive new account gains and new product introductions drove good fixed currency sales growth in our Global Institutional, Industrial and Other segments during the first quarter, nearly offsetting a decline in Global Energy sales. New business and ongoing cost efficiency work led the strong adjusted fixed currency operating margin expansion, more than offsetting the impact of soft economies, weak oil prices and currency headwinds. These, along with fewer shares outstanding, drove the adjusted earnings per share increase before currency translation. While 2016 is proving to be a challenging year, we continue to focus on the same fundamental strategies that have successfully driven our strong growth record, providing the best products and service for our customers to give them the best results and lowest operating costs. They delivered again in the first quarter, and we expect them to deliver for the full year 2016. Looking to the second quarter, we expect our Global Institutional, Industrial and Other segments to continue to show solid acquisition adjusted fixed currency growth, outpacing their markets in soft international economies, as they leverage investments we have made to further improve sales and service force effectiveness and profitability and more than offset lower results from our Global Energy business. We look for the second quarter earnings per share to be in the $1.03 to $1.11 per share range, with that range including approximately $0.08 per share or 7% of unfavorable currency translation and impact from the Venezuela deconsolidation, as we continue to aggressively drive business growth. For the full year, the Global Institutional, Industrial and Other segments are expected to continue to show solid fixed currency growth. Global Energy segment expectations have softened. Global Energy sales are expected to be on the lower end of our range, down upper single digits versus last year. While the dollar has weakened somewhat, at this early point in the year, we are maintaining our earnings per share forecast for 2016 to reflect the uncertain currency trends and business environment. Net, we continue to expect to outperform our markets in 2016, while also investing in the key drivers for future, sustainable above-average earnings growth. We expect our consolidated results to show improving comparisons in the second half and continue to look for adjusted diluted earnings per share in the $4.35 to $4.55 range. Moving to some highlights from the first quarter. And as discussed in our press release, reported first quarter earnings per share were $0.77. On an adjusted basis, excluding special gains and charges and discrete tax items from both years, first quarter 2016 adjusted earnings per share decreased 4% to $0.77, reflecting an $0.11 or 14% currency headwind. The adjusted earnings per share growth was driven by delivered product and other cost savings, cost efficiencies and the lower share count. Our consolidated fixed currency acquisition adjusted sales were modestly lower, as our Global Institutional, Industrial and Other segments grew 4%, but were offset by lower Global Energy sales. Regional sales growth was led by Latin America and Europe. Adjusted fixed currency operating margins showed strong growth, expanding 60 basis points. In 2016's difficult environment, we are focused on driving new business gains by helping customers to lower their costs. We are using our industry-leading product innovation and service strengths to help customers achieve the best results and lowest operating costs and, through these, aggressively drive new account gains across all of our segments. We expect second quarter adjusted earnings per share in the $1.03 to $1.11 range, reflecting a currency translation and Venezuela deconsolidation drag of approximately $0.08 or 7%. Consolidated results are expected to improve with the second half outperforming the first half. We look for our full year adjusted diluted earnings per share in the $4.35 to $4.55 per share range. In summary, despite a very challenging global economic and market environment, we expect to continue to deliver solid fundamental results in 2016. We remain confident in our business, our markets and our people as well as our capacities to meet our aggressive growth objectives over the coming years. And now, here's Doug Baker with some comments.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you, Mike. Good afternoon, everybody. Look, we had a solid quarter. We're on track for a full year delivery within our forecasted range. All of our sectors are handily outperforming their markets and competition, and we continue to gain share in all of these areas. For the year, there are natural puts and takes. We look at our Institutional, Industrial and Other business segments. They have been above expectations at this point, driven by new business, innovation, cost savings, very good execution. This is driving improving top line and improved margin performance. Energy is heading to the lower side of our expectation in spite of share gains and savings initiatives, and this is really driven by an even tougher market than expected. This will pass. We continue to believe, though, that the upturn is really a 2017, not a 2016 story, i.e. the oil and gas market upturn. If we froze FX at today's rates, FX would be less of a negative than planned, would be roughly $0.28 versus $0.38 negative. But given the fluidity of the FX situation, Brazil political environment, you've got the British exit vote, China, etc., we think it's too early and unwise to bake this into our forecast. Importantly, our forecast also continues to include significant investments in systems, R&D, talent initiatives which are all in total greater than last year, which I would remind you was greater than the prior year, and is, I think, a very strong indication of our confidence in the future which is high and we believe for good reason. So, as we look at the future, we know that the temporary double headwinds of energy and FX will abate. We don't know exactly when, but they will pass. Even with them, we've been doing well and outperforming markets. We do know though that our plan and our position, we think, are spot on for the future. So, clean water, safe food, abundant energy and healthy environment is even more relevant going forward than it has been in the past 5 or 10 years. We have a stronger competitive advantage position now, we believe, given our recent new innovations and our focus on driving excellent outcomes at low cost because of reduction in footprints on CO2 and water. We also have very strong execution momentum. Our teams are on it. They're doing a great job. They're driving new business. We had another very strong new business quarter in the first quarter, and we have promising new business bets in businesses like life sciences and geographies like MEA, and there are plenty more. And finally, we got a culture in the team that knows how to deliver. For all these reasons, we feel very good about where we are, how we're going to get through the year, the position that we're going to be in to drive continued growth beyond. So, that's my opening. And with that, I'll turn it over to Mike, who will move on into Q&A.
Michael J. Monahan - Senior Vice President External Relations:
Thanks, Doug. That concludes our formal remarks. Operator, would you please begin the question-and-answer period?
Operator:
Thank you. Our first question is from Gary Bisbee with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
Gary Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
I guess, the first question. Oil has rebounded a lot off the lows. It doesn't sound like, from you or others, that that's going to be enough to really impact the trend in the Energy business. But how should we think about raw materials? It seems like that's probably somewhat more of a headwind by the second half of the year, assuming prices hold. And is it fair to say that the Energy business isn't seeing any real benefit yet from the move off the bottom? Thanks.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I think the recent move in oil price, I think, look, the best predictions I read forecasted that oil would move up in anticipation of increased demand for the summer. It was likely going to weaken over the summer because really what needs to drive the fundamental price of oil is a rebalancing of supply and demand. And nobody really believed that was going to happen until towards the end of this year. And until that happens, you're not going to really, we believe, have sustained improvement in oil price or increase – maybe we shouldn't call it improvement – increase in oil price. In terms of raw materials, I guess our forecast has always had two views; one, that raws likely move before we see the impacts of higher oil prices in our energy services business. That's in our forecast. So, in the back half, we have some uptick in raws included, not monstrous because we still have favorability in the first half, but that abates and goes away as we think the energy market starts correcting and healing. So that's our view right now. I don't think you're going to see material increase in activity, which is what's really needed to drive our energy services volume until at the earliest very late this year, but most likely we aren't going to see the impact until 2017.
Gary Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Okay. Great. And then the follow-up. You cited that energy is maybe a little bit weaker, but have you seen anything else change much in the last quarter? And I guess, I'm just thinking through the thought process of not flowing through the FX. I understand there's a lot of uncertainty, but a lot of data has pointed to weaker global growth. Are you seeing that impacting the businesses or are you staying conservative at this point? Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I think if you look in our total business mix, we called out mining is under a lot of pressure, which isn't a real surprise given everything else you read. And this is really the water technologies that we sell into the world's mining operations. I mean, that business is down double digits. So, you'll see spotty things. China, particularly on the heavy industrial side, is soft. So, our business reflects what you're going to read day-to-day about the global economy. But overall, the model, as it has always proven, is fairly resilient. And so, we have puts and takes. We also have pretty strong business performance from Institutional in North America, in particular. There are oil dividends, which we've talked about, which are certainly lower raw materials which you see flowing through our II&O segments, which is one of the reasons gross profit is up. The other reason, obviously, is innovation. So, I mean I don't think the other surprises are really outliers nor will they dictate, I think, the year. And even the energy market softness, I would say it's worse than we anticipated. I would still think Energy is likely going to come in with the range we talked about. It's just going to be at the bottom end of it.
Gary Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from Nate Brochmann with William Blair. Please proceed with your question.
Nate J. Brochmann - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Yeah. Good. Hello, everyone. So, Doug, just kind of following up on that with the energy question, like, do you feel that, like at this point, while we might have the lingering behavioral impacts and obviously still some pricing pressure as you help out your customers, but do you feel like at this point that you kind of, that we're in the later innings of getting your arms around kind of that we're getting close to a true bottom in that?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. I mean, we're certainly in the later innings. I'm not unwise enough to pretend to know if the bottom is 30 days ago or 90 days in front of us or 6 months in front of us. But certainly, we're in the later innings. And I think the data I pay most attention to is where are we on the supply/demand curve. There's virtually no inventory storage capabilities globally for oil, so this thing reacts wildly to very small changes in supply and demand. And that is still projected to start coming in very near balance at the end of the year, and I believe ultimately that's going to be the data that dictates when this thing completely turns. So we're, what are we, 18 months into this? And we're saying probably have six to nine months to go, so certainly we're in the later innings.
Nate J. Brochmann - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Okay. Great. And then, with the other businesses, too, like particularly on the Institutional side, on a relative basis, I definitely get the relative strength compared to the industry trends. But with the end markets still kind of being a little bit sluggish, I was wondering what it's going to take to get that Institutional business more in that sustained 6%-plus growth range that I know that we're hopeful for. Like, do we need the end markets to do that? Or are there certain initiatives in place that do that by themselves even in the sluggish end market environment? Thanks.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. I would say in Institutional Nate, I mean, the Institutional business itself or even the sector, Institutional business was north of 6% last year. It was 5% in this quarter, but expected to be 6%-plus for the year. And that was really a quarter phenomenon. That business is operating in the 6% to 8% band that we've talked about, and I think the team has done a good job and the team will tell you and I'll tell you they still have a lot of opportunity to get after growth opportunities and margin opportunities, particularly outside of North America, which they're focusing on. So that business is running as well as it's run in terms of its financial performance for many, many years.
Operator:
Our next question is from Laurence Alexander with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.
Laurence Alexander - Jefferies LLC:
Good afternoon. Two quick ones. Can you flesh out a little bit the comments about Latin America? And secondly, can you give us an update on how you're thinking about the M&A pipeline, particularly any chances to increase your footprint in the emerging markets?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I'll do it. The expanded footprint in emerging markets, we've operated now obviously for a while, and we talked about 160 before the merger, and we're 170-plus post merger. However, we didn't have equal capabilities in all these markets. And in particular, we made a break-out investment move in MEA about 18 months ago. And this cost us margin obviously last year and even a little bit early this year, but it has driven improved results. Previously, we really ran MEA as part of Europe. Our history, whenever we make these break-out organizational moves, we did it with food, retail, breaking it out from KAY QSR. We did it many years ago with healthcare outside of what was then called EPP, which is our janitorial business. There are plenty other examples here. Both participants benefit, improved focus, and I think you're seeing that MEA has accelerated since we've broken it out, We have increased focus. We have a handle on our supply chain challenges and opportunities. And I would also point out Europe has done better since we've taken MEA out as well. Just simply it drives increased focus on the region that's left. So, that would be a good example of how we are investing in what we think are critical markets long term. Latin America, we grew by basically 10%, or 9% I guess in the quarter. We continue to do well in a region that's obviously under a lot of pressure, Brazil being the most notable headline owner right now. And I would say it's two things. I think we've always tried to focus on what matters most in these areas. Our food and beverage business, which is important throughout all those economies, is up 19%. Even our paper business, through some big wins, is having a very strong quarter. Water is up double digit down in that market as well, and we believe those businesses in particular are going to be very strong players in Latin America for a long time to come, and that's what our focus has been and is paying off.
Laurence Alexander - Jefferies LLC:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from David Ridley-Lane with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.
David E. Ridley-Lane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Sure. Within the Energy segment, did you see any change in client behavior around pricing? And just to check, would you still expect pricing in the production side of that segment to still see a modest decline in 2016?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. Well, I just – we didn't see a change in customer behavior towards pricing, which would be accepting price increases. So, no, they are under pressure and this is not unusual, and they are certainly putting pressure on us. You got competitive pressure as well. Pricing still remains, in total, in the low-single digits and we expected to be there for the year, but it's real pressure and a challenge. And what I would say is that's an average. So, you've got some much more material givebacks in certain situations in other areas where we've been able to hold price either because we have very, very unique technology and a high need, or it's a customer not under the same pressure given their geographic position. So, I would expect you'll continue to see that. I think the other things that we're seeing in that market, I don't know if they're surprising, customers are turning off programs and services. We've expected some. We're seeing a little more than we expected, but that's always a temporary issue. And so, people will take some risks, particularly in North America, where the huge market pressure is really coming to bear. And the business outside of North America continues to perform at a much higher rate, simply because the market really reacts here and everywhere else. People are typically pumping oil to meet builds, not necessarily to meet capital demands and trying to make money. So, we'd expect to continue to see that. We're remaining physically disciplined. Some of the pain is self-induced. Last year, we had only $4 million in bad debt write-offs. In the Energy business, we expect it to be greater this year, but still in the single-digit millions, which is pretty low given the size of that business. And a lot of it is because the Energy team has been very, very acutely aware of the risks there. We're putting customers on cash-on-demand quite early. We're staying out of some bankruptcy situations, customers where we don't believe there's a future either before or after bankruptcy, we are walking from if they won't go to cash on delivery, etc. So, those are the type of steps that we're taking, and they accentuate some short-term pain. But ultimately, even within the year, we think they're going to be fiscally responsible moves because we're just going to avoid some big write-offs and other challenges.
David E. Ridley-Lane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Sure. Thank you for the – for all that color. Just a quick add-on to that. Since you spoke about the trends outside the U.S. being positive, what was the net new business contribution or the share gain contribution that you saw in Energy in the first quarter? Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, net, $55 million, roughly.
David E. Ridley-Lane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
Our next question is from John Quealy with Canaccord Genuity. Please proceed with your question.
John Quealy - Canaccord Genuity, Inc.:
Hi. Good afternoon. First question. In Energy, can we hold EBIT margins here in the back half of the year? Or can you, big picture, just quantify that for us? Are we – or is this a good rate for the foreseeable future?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Look, I mean, the first quarter seasonally is always the low margin. I mean, for the year, the margin is going to be greater than what Energy showed in the first quarter.
John Quealy - Canaccord Genuity, Inc.:
Okay. And the bigger picture issues, we're in a better oil environment, so we don't really need to revise longer-term assumptions downward, I guess, is my broader question there.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
No, I – look, I mean, we're going through a world-class correction in the oil market. And if you compare it to the last four corrections, which typically were more of a 12 months to 18 months and this is certainly going to be – exceed 24 months in our forecast, this is a more severe correction. But, no, coming out of this, we – look, the demand for oil has not really been the question. What's happened is we've been in an oversupply situation, which has crushed price and now will crush activity which will lead to under supply. And I mean, that's what we believe is going to happen. And you're going to see prices move up, activity increase and the demand for our services increase as well. Right now, everybody is focusing on the easiest oil they can find. And to meet future demand, they're going to have to start reverting and getting back after the harder oil, which is what ultimately drives higher demand in our portfolio. We believe that story is intact.
John Quealy - Canaccord Genuity, Inc.:
Okay. Thank you. And very quickly as a follow-up under the healthcare business just holding its own. Is this going to be a type of year where we're just looking for, sort of, sideways healthcare? Or are we going to hit an inflection point at some point on the acquired divestiture adjusted change? Thank you, guys.
Michael J. Monahan - Senior Vice President External Relations:
Yeah. Healthcare, I think, is going to strengthen throughout the year. They had a very, very good new business quarter in the first quarter, second best that they have and measured. So, we feel good about what's going on. They are now – the recall that really started last year in the third quarter, is fully behind them. And while that wasn't a huge top line hit, it was a huge hit in terms of focus and energy of the group. And now, that's fully done, fully resolved and moving forward. I expect good things out of healthcare this year. They'll continue to improve. It's not going to be a dramatic inflection in one quarter, but I think you'll see sequential improvement.
Operator:
Our next question is from Manav Patnaik with Barclays Bank. Please proceed with your question.
Manav Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Yeah, hi. Thank you. Good afternoon, gentlemen. Just to, I guess, make sure we're all on the same page on the Energy side, can you just remind us of the mix in your Energy business again between downstream, production and so forth at the beginning of the year? And then, what's baked into each of those categories in terms of assumptions to get you to your lower end of upper-single digit decline for this year?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. Well, the WellChem is about 10%, heading to 8%. The production, or OFC business, is about 60% and downstream is 30%. And downstream is growing. WellChem is going to be under pressure again this year. It's likely going to bake towards the second half because it's starting to run into where they were down 50% in the third and fourth quarter. As you go forward, the OFC business will be under some pressure, but the drama isn't anywhere near what you see in WellChem.
Manav Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Okay. And I guess...
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Last year, we were down 8% in total. And we said this year that we would expect to be not to have as much top line pressure, but it may get to 8%. What I've indicated is we're at the lower end of our expectations, so high-single digit sales declines this year like last year, maybe a little less, but in line with that.
Manav Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
And I guess, if you were to try and characterize the main differential between when you gave the guidance in late February versus today, like, I guess, which one area gets moved to get you to that lower end and maybe more?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I would say WellChem is going to be a little worse than we thought and OFC is going to be a little worse than we thought. Downstream is going to be in line with what we thought.
Manav Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Okay. That's helpful. And I was hoping you could elaborate a little bit, I think you mentioned in your comments, the new business bets like life sciences. I was wondering if you were – if you could elaborate a little bit more on that and maybe if there's any other new businesses like this that you're referring to.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, I'll elaborate on life sciences. Life sciences is a business that we competed in for a long time, but we did it as part of the work in our F&B business and some of the function was driven out of our healthcare business. We've taken those two pieces of business and created a focused division on the life sciences market, i.e. pharma, cosmetics, etc. The changes in that business and their needs match very much what we can do. So, it's a market that's dominated by large multinationals. They're getting to shorter runs, need to run at higher efficiencies, cleaning in place technologies is important in that market and the core competencies that we have. So, a lot of the things that we do there match well. I would say, when this business is run as a small piece of two other businesses, it performed well, we believe, with focused, enhanced capabilities, R&D, etc., that we are going to be able to up the performance of this business handily, just as we've done in other markets like food, retail, etc. in the past.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Shlomo Rosenbaum with Stifel. Please proceed with your question.
Shlomo Rosenbaum - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Hi. Thank you very much. Hey, Doug, you had a very strong free cash flow quarter in the beginning of the year. Was there anything unusual or any pull forwards over there?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
One, I mean, the first quarter historically is our low first – lowest cash flow quarter. Last year was more the anomaly, and we talked about it. That working capital – some anomalies in working capital last year really hid the underlying performance, and we said that you would expect to see improvements starting second, third and fourth quarter in 2015 and you did. And so, this year, we're going against a last year what I would call unusual negative cash flow performance. This year is a little stronger than maybe normal, but it's really driven by excellent working capital. We put real focus on it after last year's frankly unacceptable first quarter. And I think you're just seeing that discipline and focus carry through. Part of it is a conversation I had around energy where I think that team in a very difficult environment has done a heck of a job on receivables, in particular, which we needed to because otherwise you're going to walk right into a problem. So, that's really what's going on. So, strong underlying earnings. The business is performing well. It gets masked principally by FX. And Energy is going to go through ups and downs. I'm not going to walk away from the downs. But last year, get out of FX, we're up 12%. And I think if you look at our cash flow, you'll see the underlying strength and that's more indicative of what the business is doing even with Energy.
Shlomo Rosenbaum - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Great. And just as a follow-up, can you give us an update on Swisher? I know it's not huge, but is the revenue coming in kind of the way that you expected you're expecting some kind of erosion? And how long do you think it will take to get the margins more in line with the historical Ecolab margins?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. I think the Swisher acquisition is going as expected. And remember, our expectations are quite high in terms of ultimate return. We did expect to see sales erosion. We are seeing it. It's in line with expectations. Importantly, the most critical and strategic part of their business, we're doing a great job securing. It's not all done. We're continuing to work on that. In terms of getting after cost structure, the team has made a lot of progress. And if anything, I think we will end up ahead of plan as we move forward. It hasn't shown up yet really in the P&L. That would be probably more in the second half. But in the whole scheme of things, it's not monstrously materially material, but it'll show up in the Institutional results but really not until the second half. Right now, it's a drag, but it'll turn into a positive, but not until the second half, probably.
Shlomo Rosenbaum - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.
David I. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Thanks. Hey, Doug, back to Energy, just the cadence of earnings of Q2 through Q4, I know you discussed margins, but what's the actual operating profit cadence do you expect for the rest of the year?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I need dollars, guys. Just give us a second, David. Sorry. I wanted to get – we had a bunch of percentages. It's probably a little easier to give you absolute direction. So, we would expect second quarter profit is going to be greater than first quarter. Still under pressure, but not nearly as much pressure as we were in terms of percentage in the first quarter. Almost half as much pressure on the percent. We are going to start seeing, we think, profits flatten out in the second half. And the question as they flatten in the third, it's probably more a fourth quarter scenario that we'll start seeing year-on-year flattening on profits as you start running against the base and you start having some sales stabilization and volume stabilization in the new business that we continue to put on start showing up. So, that's the expectation. So, I would say pressure in the first three quarters for sure. It's just going to be pressure that continues to become less severe as the year goes on, part because of base, part because we'll start seeing some new business, but mostly base.
David I. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Got it. And just on the overall gross margin, nice expansion in Q1. You expect expansion in Q2. Would you expect expansion in the back half of the year as well, or would that be more flattish given the direction of raw materials?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
We would expect probably not the same level as gross profit expansion in the back half as the first, but we will continue to see improvement throughout the year.
David I. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
Our next question is from Andy Wittmann with Robert W. Baird. Please proceed with your question.
Andrew John Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Great. Thanks for taking this. I guess, maybe a little bit of color, Doug, on what's driving the sequential improvement and, I guess, implicit margin performance? I mean, they were down pretty significantly in this quarter. Is that just easier comps or recovering pricing, raw materials? Just to understand some of the drivers, I think, would be helpful.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
First of all, the story is not that different, but the margin commentary I just had on gross profit was whole company, so.
Andrew John Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Yeah, I'm talking Energy.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, okay. So if you want to get into that, that's what I thought. So Energy, you got seasonal volume where first quarter is our lowest volume on in whatever environment you want to go in the Energy business. And so in a flat environment, without any share gain, you're going to see a step-up in second and then a minor step-up again in the third and fourth quarter just from seasonality. You have a market which isn't been stable, but we think stabilizes later in the year, not improves, as you go through. And so, we think that seasonality comes through. And then the other issue is share and we continue to gain share. And our net ahead, as we go through this, and while it's a tough environment, we continue to see the few things that are happening in the world are coming our way and we are getting some of the existing fields to move our way. And so, it's a combination of those two things that we think leads to a minor improvement when you start looking at year-on-year. And you got to remember, last year, the second half, we really had a lot of the market decline in the second half, not all of it, but a lot of it, a lot more than the first half.
Andrew John Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Yeah. Okay. That makes sense. And then, just in terms of the other businesses, it looks like healthcare, maybe Energy and let's add paper, these things all have either sequential improvement or looking for growth in the back half of the year. Are there any markets where you are seeing any other signs of weakness creeping in that we need to be watching out for that maybe don't have better growth prospects as we move into the year?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I think the markets besides Energy where we're under the most pressure would be mining and heavy industry, steel, etc., around the world. I would say mining is probably getting down towards the bottom, right. It was fairly negative in the fourth and much more negative in the first. We're forecasting kind of flattening and then improvement in mining as we go forward, as we start running into the base, but it's not that big of a business. And the heavy industry stuff will start running into the base as well, so I don't think there – this is like the puts and takes we have all the time. So I don't know that it demands increased scrutiny from you. Trust me, it's getting plenty from us.
Andrew John Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from Dmitry Silversteyn with Longbow Research. Please proceed with your question.
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC:
Good afternoon. A lot of them have been answered already, but I just want to follow up on the specialty or the KAY part of the Institutional business. We've seen growth there sort of slow down to mid-single digit levels. This business used to perform at high-single digit, low-double digit growth. Is it just it's kind of getting to the scale where it's more difficult to grow at the rates you used to grow, or is it market is still a little bit weaker? Can you talk a little bit about just what the expectation out of the business should be going forward?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I think that business is going to continue to perform. Look, it will have its double-digit quarters. But mostly, it's going to be growing in the high-single digits. And what really drives it, as I've always described that business, sort of feeds a village via elephants. And so, it's a market that's dominated by large players. And when you sell one, you have a big, fairly significant ramp-up. You annualize against it and you continue to see ramp-up. So, it's a little different cadence than many of our other businesses. But that business is I think in great shape and doing the right things. The opportunities in that business are fairly significant because there is real pain in the industry, particularly in North America as a consequence of wage pressure and ACA requirements. And so increasingly customers are going to look to take labor out. Whatever the economists want to say, they're going to take labor out, and that's a great opportunity for our QSR business, in particular.
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC:
Sounds good. Then, if you look at, you mentioned along with new business wins, some cost efficiencies have helped you with profitability. Is this part of a specific restructuring program that you have? Is it an ongoing sort of control of discretionary expenses in a difficult time? Can you talk about these cost efficiencies and how much of a runway, I guess, you have left?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. Well, as I've described, I think we have a lot of runway left on continuing to improve our efficiency as an organization. As I've tried to state before, the word synergy has a half-life. And after a point in time, you don't get to talk about cost savings and synergies any more. But there's no way you put together two companies the size we did in 150 countries and have all your synergies worked out in 36 months without taking monster risk. And we don't like to take stupid risks. And so, there is a lot still to be mined from the combination of Nalco and Champion as we go forward as there always is in a company, even without that just getting better, new technology drives new opportunities. So yeah, we're quite confident. I mean, if you look at our track record before we did the Nalco merger, we had routine margin expansion for a number of years and we would expect you're going to see regular margin expansion going forward, even if we call it cost savings instead of synergy.
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC:
Got it. Okay. Thanks, Doug. That's helpful.
Operator:
Our next question is from John Roberts with UBS. Please proceed with your question.
John Roberts - UBS Securities LLC:
Thank you. If I wanted to look at the sequential earnings change in Global Energy, do you have the restated fourth quarter earnings that would compare? So, I'm looking at your current earnings, the first quarter 2015, the $104.2 million, that's about $25 million lower than what you originally reported a year ago. So, with the rebasing and the Venezuelan deconsolidation, what's the fourth quarter that we would use for a sequential comparison?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
What is it, $125 million? We would say $125 million on both. And so, if you look at Q4 and Q1, I mean, we do this as a matter of routine to look both year-on-year and sequentially. The biggest driver in terms of this is volume. Some of that's seasonal and some of it is market, but that would account for the vast majority. Simply, you don't have the same coverage in your plants and everything else, which is why first quarter broadly is always a low-margin quarter for us and it's a low-margin quarter for Energy as well. And then, it was exacerbated by further market declines as you go in. I would also point out fourth quarter, as we've said, during the fourth quarter had a number of one-time positive events in it. All of them legitimate, but that would probably be accounted for almost $14 million of the $125 million that just weren't going to recur, which we called out in that fourth quarter. And it was simply we sold some inventory that was out there at one time, which were smart moves economically for the company, were legitimate deals. But you don't get to sell that inventory over and over again, so it took risk off the table and triggered a sale and some gross profit realization as a consequence of that. So, those things are also part of the story. And then, we also had a one-timer negative in the first quarter in Angola that was fairly substantial that needs to be accounted for. When you take those things, the whole thing makes sense. But the fourth quarter was a little bit overstated, and the first quarter is probably – is really reflective of low seasonality. And we will see improved margin in Energy going forward simply because volume will be greater in the out-quarters than it was in this quarter, and you'll have better overhead coverage.
John Roberts - UBS Securities LLC:
And then, the other segment which has the 16% sales margins this quarter; you're getting almost up to the Institutional area now in terms of margins. And we don't have a lot of good history of that segment, given it usually was good margins on pest, offset by investment in GCS. But as GCS ramps its margins now, how high does that other segment get do you think?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, look, GCS makes money now so we actually have a margin on the positive there and they've done a good job driving that. I think pest has always been a good profit business. Our pest business as you've seen has reaccelerated. If you recall, a couple years ago, we said we'd put it in a shop and are reinvesting in pest in a number of areas, which we've done. And to the team's credit, they've taken that reinvestment and delivered on the top line performance that they committed to. So, that grew nearly double digits in the first quarter, which is what we had historically expected out of pest, but then didn't see for quite a while. GCS, I mean, out of that thing, I think you can see regularly high teens may be approaching. Our goal as a corporation is 20%, so I'm not going to really be happy until everybody is there.
John Roberts - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from Mike Harrison with Seaport Global. Please proceed with your question.
Michael Joseph Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC:
Hi. Good afternoon.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hi, Mike.
Michael Joseph Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC:
Can you hear me okay?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah.
Michael Joseph Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC:
I was wondering, Doug, if you could talk about the new Synergex sanitizer product for clean-in-place applications. That's kind of your workhorse in the F&B market. Can you talk about some of the risks and the opportunities as you're introducing the next-generation product in that market?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. Look, I guess, there's always risk if you introduce anything, but there's greater risk if you introduce nothing. So, this is one of our core platforms. It's the heart of CIP. And so, while we'll talk about what sales are for specific product, it sort of understates its overall importance. And so, this is the next platform of antimicrobial as we move forward. And we need to continue to bring broad-based kill, the absence of bioaccumulation, all the things that we think are very important to have going forward. And this is the state-of-the-art antimicrobial, we believe, in that marketplace and is very important to us, continuing to drive our advantage in that market. So, we've got the best antimicrobial suite. It just got better with this introduction.
Michael Joseph Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC:
Right. And then, I was curious, also, you mentioned that you were going to be – or you were splitting the Europe business from the MEA business. Was wondering if you could comment on the margin profile of those two businesses as separated and how they have trended over the past few years, particularly with all the work that you've done in the Europe region.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
We've reported regularly that we continue to improve Europe. And what we've given you historically is kind of apples and apples to our Renaissance program. Europe is now high-single digit margin business in total, and MEA is virtually double that. So, MEA is a strong region in terms of OI margin. If anything, we've reduced it in the near term as we up investments in G&A. We've split this out two years ago. We've added a number of key division leadership position, added corporate account positions, added supply chain positions so we have better ability to get product to customers in that region, done a number of things which have put us in a better stead to drive growth which is a real focus in that place. And we'll drive margin after we get growth really cooking. But really, right now, it's growth first.
Michael Joseph Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC:
Thanks very much.
Operator:
Our next question is from Hamzah Mazari with Sterne, Agee. Please proceed with your question.
Hamzah Mazari - CRT Capital Group LLC:
Good afternoon. Just a question on M&A and balance sheet. Maybe, given the current leverage, a little over two times, how are you thinking about appetite to do a larger deal? And would it be fair to say that you're looking outside Energy versus continuing to build Energy? Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. I think in terms of our capability to do an outside deal we don't think is governed by our balance sheet at this point in time. So, we said our goal is to get down to roughly a 2 times EBITDA margin, and that's where we are. We think that's the right balance between financial efficiency and also strategic capability, i.e., capitalize or jump quickly if you needed to. In terms of what we're looking at, I think our focus has been water because we believe it's a great opportunity. We continue to look there. You've seen recent Institutional and F&B deals. If they continue to have promising bolt-ons, we'll continue to do that. And then, I think healthcare broadly is an area that we're still very interested in. We think that's a great market for us, and we aim to win in that market. And I would say, typically, what we've set our minds to, we do. It sometimes takes us longer than we would like. You certainly saw that in GCS, but we get there. And we ended up persevering, and we are going to have a great healthcare business. So, those are areas we're looking at. In terms of Energy, we've said we don't want to be dramatically bigger than we are in Energy. We've said that for a while. But with that, where there are promising properties or new technologies that we think we can develop into promising annuity streams, we'll do it. We just announced one late last year, a Canadian technology that we bought for that very reason because the Energy team, I think, has a very good vision of how to drive that technology into an annuity stream that helps customers and helps us. So, that's how we look at it. Right now, the market, there are deals going down for prices that honestly we wouldn't pay. And we're going to remain disciplined. We did before. We did the Nalco deal after the froth was over, and let me try to be smart stewards of shareholder money as we go forward.
Hamzah Mazari - CRT Capital Group LLC:
Great. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Our next question is from Rosemarie Morbelli with Gabelli & Company. Please proceed with your question.
Rosemarie Jeanne Morbelli - Gabelli & Company:
Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. So, you just answered my M&A question. So, moving to pest and equipment, is the 9% top line growth something that you are looking at going forward and will eventually – and if you could give us a feel for the timing, will we see that kind of a growth rate on healthcare?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. Well, I would say we expect – I would say it's probably better to count on upper-single digits in our Other segment. We do think that's quite real, quite sustainable. They'll pop into double-digit land on some occasional quarters, and they'll be a little lower on some quarters just because of what happens at times. But, yeah, we think the pest and even the Equipment Care business have a long road at high-single digit type growth and may be typically popping even over our 6% to 8% kind of target. Healthcare, ultimately, I think is the same type of business. I think it – our aim is to get that business, probably combine with life sciences to be upper-single digit business on an organic basis. Obviously, we may have additional M&A activity in that business and that would push it above that for periods of time.
Rosemarie Jeanne Morbelli - Gabelli & Company:
Do you need the M&A, Doug, in order to get to that 6% to 8% growth target? Or can you do it on your own, the way the business is right now?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. I don't – no, we don't believe we're missing something fundamental preventing us from doing it. And I think when you look at a lot of the underneath economics, that business is getting better and I think that team is on it and starting to get traction on the areas they need to get on and after, kind of the place where we have a unique difference, can own and protect and build, and that business is growing very handily and becoming a larger piece of that portfolio, which is what has to happen for you to see the big numbers out of that business. So, no, we don't need anything, but that doesn't mean if there's an attractive property or technology, we would be open to it just as we are in the other businesses.
Rosemarie Jeanne Morbelli - Gabelli & Company:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from Chris Evans with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.
Christopher Evans - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Yeah. Thanks for taking my question. Doug, a quick question on Energy. Does the shift to these easier oil plays that you cited earlier, does that challenge your return to your prior Energy earnings levels?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, the shift is somewhat temporary and mostly notable in saving the shale play and everything else. And if anything, it's a gain that runs out. So, in this very tough economic environment, what folks have done is basically gone to focus on the wells that are easiest to extract and cheapest to extract. That's how they're keeping cash flow going to pay their bills and hopefully survive until the price recovers. And when price recovers and demand needs to be met because you've got a lot of capital that's been pulled out of that business, they're going to have to go back to the other wells. And so, the shift is inevitable. You can't meet the demand for oil next year with just easy oil. So, I mean, this will happen. And so, then you will see the natural cadence occur in this business again.
Christopher Evans - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thanks. Appreciate the answer. And then, staying with Energy just for another one. Could you just bridge me the 15% sales decline to the 42% EBIT in terms of maybe volume price?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, I mean, I don't have, like, the bridge in front of me. It's, look, in that and almost any business, when you have significant deleveraging in a business, you have almost this immediate significant impact on OI because there's no time to take out overhead. And I wouldn't anyway because a lot of this is just seasonally. So, you get under-absorption in the plants that just immediately, instead of going into inventory, hits your OI line. I mean, this is just basic P&L stuff, but 15% is a significant volume hit. We've been under pressure there. We did not build inventory. We're trying to be disciplined on inventory and the other stuff, so we took it on the chin. Last year, if you recall, we were building inventory year-on-year in Energy because it took us a while to turn off the spigot in reaction to the market. So, you've got even probably more outsized year-on-year impact from absorption than you would under normal times.
Christopher Evans - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got you. So this was just the volumes. No impact from any pricing decline.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, but in line with what I talked and not materially different from the other quarters.
Christopher Evans - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from Christopher Parkinson with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.
Christopher S. Parkinson - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Perfect. Thank you. Can you just comment on your recent new business launches within the water segment in terms of recent growth contribution? And also, any color on the cadence of the potential ramps for the new platforms which you mentioned for the second half of the year?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I'm sorry. Can you repeat the second half of the question?
Christopher S. Parkinson - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Just any color on the cadence of the potential ramps of the new platforms, which you've mentioned in your release for the second half of the year?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. So in the water business, I mean, we have continued expansion drive of our 3D TRASAR units, which continues to go well and move. We've also launched Solids, we've talked about, for the light side of the business. Let me just turn on to my page where we've got – so our expected revenue on new launches for water are going to be around $25 million to $30 million this year. They will build throughout the year. Typically, the way I would think about a launch, when we launch a program it typically takes five years for us to reach peak annual sales, so it's not this monster ramp-up. The technology also has legs, and we will often be selling technology for at least 10 years before we replace a platform or do other things. And this certainly is obviously longer-lived technology than Apple probably talks about. So, in terms of expected sales from our cooling water product line around 3D TRASAR, we'll end up at $30 million ultimately this year, but our five-year expected sales out in 2020, 2021 would be around $100 million.
Christopher S. Parkinson - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Perfect. That's helpful. And just very quickly, on the food and beverage side, you've mentioned penetrating your existing customers fairly well across your portfolio. One of the things you just actually just discussed, but you've also had some new business wins despite a tough environment. Can you just really quickly parse out what you believe are the Ecolab-specific trends here versus what you're seeing in the actual end market and how you're comping versus that? Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. Well I mean, I believe our F&B business was up 4% in first quarter. And certainly, I don't think the food market, this is the heavily processed food, dairy market in particular is our focus in these markets. It includes protein and other areas, but those businesses are under pressure. And so, there's no doubt in my mind we're outperforming the market and the pressure comes in twofold. One, there are the consumer demand pressure as people move to different parts of the store to procure food. And second, there's been quite a bit of M&A activity in that market, which means ultimately they consolidate and take out manufacturing facilities, which reduces temporarily total opportunity for us. Long term though, the drivers in F&B I think are in excellent shape. It's called population and food safety. And the population will grow around the world. The middle class will grow. Expectation for food quality will continue to increase, particularly in emerging markets. And food safety is only going to get more challenging. That's why there's a lot of conversation in the U.S. about local farming. Local farming is not going to feed 9 billion people, and it's also not by any means the most sustainable way to farm. What you're going to want to do is farm where stuff naturally grows. So, you're not going to see bananas growing in Manhattan anytime soon. It doesn't make any sense. It would be local, but it wouldn't be very sustainable. And so ultimately, I think you're going to still see long-distance shipping of food to, in particular, feed the Asian population growth. And long distance equals time, and time is the enemy of food safety. And so if anything, we think the demands for food safety technology are going to grow faster than the food demand, which is ultimately going to be driven by the two components I talked about, population growth and middle-class expectation growth. So, I like our food and beverage business, new technology, team's on it. We're outperforming the market. I think that business gets better. And the water technology coupling we have is spot on for that business, and it's a huge way to leverage our installed base in F&B.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Scott Schneeberger with Oppenheimer. Please proceed with your question.
Scott Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Thanks. Doug, just to get a better feel for the Industrial segment, I'm curious, a nice couple hundred basis points fixed currency margin expansion year-over-year. You said volume gains, pricing, cost savings and lower product costs. I was just wondering, are those in order of magnitude, and how it spreads across the sub segments of the business? And then, lastly, what we should look for as we move through the year as what the bigger drivers are in the Industrial segment? Thanks so much.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. It's like an ingredient list. It's in order of magnitude. And so, what we've said is the one area, raw material benefits are expected to decline as the year moves on and possibly even move into slightly negative territory by year-end. But the balance of it, volume, pricing, cost savings are going to be tools that will remain in our quiver that we will use.
Scott Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Thanks. And just across the sub segments, which may be the biggest drivers in Industrial?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
You mean, which areas of those are going to be utilized? I don't – say it again?
Scott Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Just of the subcategories in your Industrial segment, which do you feel will drive the business overall through the balance of the year? Which of those.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I think F&B and core water. I mean, core water is up 6%. It was mining that was down, and that business continues to strengthen. That's even with the pressure in steel and other areas. And so, China's tough, but there's always something going on in the world. But water we think continues to strengthen. They've got good innovation. They're on the new business. F&B is in solid shape. I mean, those are the large businesses in Industrial. Textile improved, had a pretty strong first quarter and we would expect to have a strong year as we go forward. So, it's pretty good I think across the segment. We're in pretty good shape.
Scott Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Great. Thanks.
Operator:
Our next question is from Dan Dolev with Nomura Asset Management. Please proceed with your question.
Dan Dolev - Nomura Securities International, Inc.:
Hi. Thanks for taking my question. Just want to make clear that I understand. So, in late February, you spelled out 9% to 13% constant currency EPS growth. What is the constant currency EPS growth as of today for the year? What is the expectation in constant currency terms?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. I would say at this point in time, we haven't really, as I said, reflected a change in currency and we haven't changed our range. So it wouldn't have changed.
Dan Dolev - Nomura Securities International, Inc.:
Got it. So, the math that I went through to get you to 6% to 10%, you're saying that's not the right math at this point?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, here's the thing. I guess, what we've said is if we snapped a line right now and froze all rates at the rate you see today and that was the end rate for the year, you're going to have $0.10 less currency headwind than we forecast in late February. But given all the stuff going on in the world, we don't think booking that at this point in time is wise. There's a lot of things that can change, including currency as the year goes on and there's just too much time remaining in the year in a very dynamic environment to go snap the line on one of multiple variables. So, what we've basically said is we have not changed our expected currency outcome for the year even though we recognize and admit that today's rates would indicate it's $0.10 better. So, yeah, if you want to go do that math, but there's a lot of things going in here. We haven't increased our range either at this point in time. And I think as the year goes, we'll continue to try to be transparent in what our expectations are and what the underlying assumptions leading to our forecasted range. And from there, right, we're going to just watch multi-variable inputs and see how it all turns out, but I would expect to deliver on our range.
Dan Dolev - Nomura Securities International, Inc.:
Got it. Just one follow-up and more long-term reflective. The analysis that we did for our initiation work two years ago, we looked at your margin growth for the last few years, including and excluding the synergies, including – excluding all the synergies that you got from Nalco and Champion, which were a lot, you were probably getting 10 basis points to 15 basis points of margin growth per our math. In Q1, you got about 20 basis points. I assume there was some energy impact. Do you still stand behind that 20% margin? And how are you going to get there by 2020?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I think when we launched the 20% margin, we did that at an investor conference. It was $20 million in sales, 20% margin – OI margin and 20% return on invested capital. I was very clear at that time that we weren't going to hit all three by 2020 because, if you did the math, it would imply much more than 15% EPS growth. And what we said is we believe all three are achievable, they're achievable within sight of 2020, but they weren't all going to occur by 2020. And that's still true. If you go to just the last two years, if 2016 expected FX hit, not a dime better, you've got 2015 and 2016, we'd lose $1.5 billion in sales in two years just from currency translation and over $250 million in OI. I mean, that's what those rates mean. So, they chew up the bulk of the synergies you might have from one of those deals. With that, we continue to deliver positive EPS growth as we go through it. I will also say we also believe that translation FX, not transaction. Transaction FX, we never talk about. It's almost equal in size, but we think that's a real impact in the business that has to be dealt with because it's the equivalent of inflation basically. So, we don't talk about it. We only talk about translation because translation is sort of goofy. If I was headquartered in Munich last year, I would have been up 26% EPS with everything happening exactly the same except I'm consolidating into euro, not into dollars. Our business isn't any better. Our share is not any better. Our margins aren't any better. Nothing's better except I translate into a more favorable currency. And so, this stuff flips back and forth. So, our margin improvement, yeah, I think is real. At fixed currency, it was more like 60%, not 20%, and we expect to have continued fixed margin growth year in, year out. And one year, it's going to look like 200% because currency is going to go in our favor, and I will tell you it's still only 60% because really you got to look at this the way the margin's really coming, country by country and currency by currency. That's the way we ultimately realize it over any period of time that matters to a corporation, right. So, that's how we look at it.
Operator:
There are no further questions at this time. At this point, I'd like to turn the call back over to Michael Monahan for closing comments.
Michael J. Monahan - Senior Vice President External Relations:
Well, that wraps up our first quarter conference call. This conference call, the associated discussion and slides will be available for replay on our website. Thanks for your time and participation today and best wishes for the rest of the day.
Operator:
This concludes today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time.
Executives:
Michael J. Monahan - Senior Vice President External Relations Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer Daniel J. Schmechel - Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Gary Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC Nate Brochmann - William Blair & Company, L.L.C David I. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. David E. Ridley-Lane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch John Quealy - Canaccord Genuity, Inc. Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC Shlomo Rosenbaum - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc. Andrew John Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker) Michael Joseph Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC Rosemarie Jeanne Morbelli - Gabelli & Company Robert Andrew Koort - Goldman Sachs & Co. Scott Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker)
Operator:
Greetings and welcome to the Ecolab Fourth Quarter 2015 Earnings Release Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Michael Monahan, Senior Vice President of External Relations for Ecolab. Please go ahead sir.
Michael J. Monahan - Senior Vice President External Relations:
Thank you. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Ecolab's fourth quarter conference call. With me today are Doug Baker, Ecolab's Chairman and CEO; and our CFO, Dan Schmechel. A discussion of our results along with our earnings release and the slides referencing the quarter's results and our outlook are available on Ecolab's website at ecolab.com/investor. Please take a moment to read the cautionary statements on these materials stating that this teleconference, the discussion, and the slides include estimates of future performance. These are forward-looking statements and actual results could differ materially from those projected. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are described in the section of our most recent Form 10-K and Form 10-Q, under Item 1A, Risk Factors, and in our posted materials. We'd also refer you to the supplemental diluted earnings per share information in the release. Starting with a brief overview of the quarter, continued strong new account gains and new product introductions drove good fixed currency sales growth in our Global Institutional, Industrial and Other segments during the fourth quarter, nearly offsetting a decline in Global Energy sales. Delivered product cost savings, ongoing cost efficiency work and synergies led the strong adjusted operating margin expansion, more than offsetting the impact of softening economies, weaker oil prices and increased currency headwinds. These, along with the lower tax rate and fewer shares outstanding, drove the adjusted earnings per share increase While 2016 will present challenges, we are prepared to respond. Once again, we will focus on the fundamental Ecolab growth strategies that have proven successful through repeated economic cycles. The best products and service for our customers to give them the best results and lowest operating costs. We expect them to succeed again in 2016. Looking to the first quarter, we expect our Global Institutional, Industrial and Other segments to continue to show solid fixed currency growth, outpacing their markets and softer international economies as they leverage investments we have made to further improve sales and service force effectiveness and profitability, and more than offset lower results from our Global Energy business. We look for the first quarter earnings to show very attractive growth before currency, increasing 5% to 14%, as we continue to aggressively drive business growth. Adjusted earnings per share are expected to reflect about 14 percentage points of unfavorable currency impact, yielding adjusted EPS in the $0.73 per share to $0.80 per share range. We look for comparative results to improve as 2016 progresses and show strong results for the full year with 9% to 13% adjusted earnings per share growth before the unfavorable impact of currency and the Venezuela deconsolidation. We expect currency and the Venezuela deconsolidation will penalize 2016 growth by approximately 9 percentage points. Net, we expect Ecolab to once again significantly outperform its markets and show a superior performance in 2016 while also investing in the key drivers for future sustainable above average earnings growth. Moving to some highlights from the fourth quarter, and as discussed in our press release, reported fourth quarter earnings per share were $0.69. On an adjusted basis, excluding special gains and charges and discrete tax items from both years, fourth quarter 2015 adjusted earnings per share increased 2% to $1.22 despite a $0.13 or 11% currency headwind. The adjusted earnings per share growth was driven by delivered product and other cost savings, cost efficiencies, synergies, new products, and lower tax rate and share count. Our fixed currency acquisition adjusted sales were modestly lower as our Institutional, Industrial and Other segments grew 4%, but were offset by a lower energy sales. Regional sales growth was led by Europe and Latin America excluding Venezuela. Adjusted fixed currency operating margins showed very strong growth, expanding 130 basis points. In 2015's difficult environment, we focused on driving new business gains and lower costs. We used our industry-leading product innovation and service strengths to help customers achieve better results and lower operating costs. And through these, aggressively drove new account gains across all of our segments. Further, raw material cost savings along with our cost efficiency work, helped to offset these headwinds. Importantly, we also continued to make investments in our key growth drivers. These actions delivered a strong fundamental business performance in 2015 with double-digit profit growth before currency. The fourth quarter represented another strong performance on this basis, growing 13% despite the further deterioration in Energy markets. As noted earlier, the business environment has become more challenging in recent months as the dollar strengthened, Energy markets weakened, and global economies softened. Nonetheless, against that challenging backdrop, we look for 2016 earnings before currency and Venezuela deconsolidation effects to continue to show strong growth as we implement the same approach in 2016 as we did in 2015 and aggressively drive market share and new business gains. We expect first quarter adjusted earnings per share from operations to rise 5% to 14% before currency and the Venezuela deconsolidation, with adjusted earnings per share in the $0.73 to $0.80 range, reflecting a currency drag of approximately 14% to earnings per share growth. Results are expected to improve as the year progresses with the second half outperforming the first half. We look for full year adjusted earnings before currency and the Venezuela deconsolidation to increase 9% to 13%. We expect adjusted earnings per share in the $4.35 per share to $4.55 per share range with currency and Venezuela deconsolidation representing an approximate 9% drag to results. In summary, despite a very challenging global economic and market environment, we expect our underlying business to continue to deliver very strong fundamental earnings in 2016. We remain confident in our business, our markets, and our people, as well as our capacities to meet our aggressive growth objectives over the coming years. And now here's Doug Baker with some comments.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Mike. First, I'll just offer some perspective on 2015 and then talk 2016 as well. So 2015, we had very solid business performance. It was clearly shrouded by FX. But if you take it net of translation FX, our EPS was 12% for the year and 13% in Q4. And this includes the full impact of Energy in the year and in the quarter, full impact of transaction FX. It includes system investments of $0.10 for the year, which is $0.03 over last year. It also includes an increase in sales and service head count, i.e., we continue to invest in the business while driving double-digit results in obviously not the perfect environment. Our major business drove this. All of them grew faster than their markets, including Energy. While Energy was hit clearly by the oil and gas market headwinds, it outperformed. So in a market with a 60% decline in U.S. rigs, 50% drop in oil prices, our Energy business declined 8% top line for the year, 14% in OI. If you parse through Energy and look at the core of the business, the production or OFC and downstream collectively, they grew top line 1% and OI 8% for the year. So the core of that business managed very well. The rest of our businesses, I'd say, also outperformed the markets and had a very, very strong year. So Institutional globally grew sales 6%, OI 12%. F&B grew sales 6%, OI 16%. Water grew sales 6%, OI 12%. Specialty services 7% and 16%. If you add in the rest, Paper, Healthcare, et cetera, the total of all those businesses was 5% growth and 12% OI. We drove it the old fashioned way. We continued to take share. We're outgrowing our major competitors in the markets we compete in as our team continued to drive innovation and delivered new business. This is what drove the underlying 12% EPS performance. So as you look at 2016, it's going to be much more of the same. It's going to be continued FX headwinds, see more of the same market conditions. We expect the economies globally to be choppy, but manageable. It's going to be continued tough oil and gas markets, offset, in part, by favorable raw material markets, which is the flip side of that coin. But most importantly, we're going to have continued strong underlying business execution. So we expect to deliver double digit underlying EPS growth again in 2016. The range is 9% to 13%. We expect Energy to continue to be impacted by the tough market conditions, but our natural raw material price hedge will mitigate this negative impact. Energy, we do not believe will be as negative as last year, but given our forecast position of no 2016 energy market turnaround, it will likely decline modestly year-on-year, but at a slower rate than last year. The balance of the business is poised to have another very good year; a bit stronger than 2015 on top-line and continued margin expansion. Net, we feel good about the business. In 2016, as we continue to invest for the long term, we're going to continue to invest in R&D and systems field technology, sales fire power, talent development. We're very, very excited about the future and I think our investment belies (10:40) that. Our positioning and promise of clean water, safe food, abundant energy, healthy environments, we believe remains even more relevant or is more relevant as we go forward. So, the business continues to do well. The underlying results, I believe, demonstrate our resilience as we continue to deliver double digit EPS, when you exclude translation FX, in far from perfect market conditions. So with that, I'll turn it back to Mike and we can open it up for Q&A.
Michael J. Monahan - Senior Vice President External Relations:
Thanks, Doug. A final note before we start the Q&A. We plan to hold our annual tour of our booth at the National Restaurant Association Show in Chicago on May 23. If you have any questions, please contact my office. That concludes our formal remarks. Operator, would you please begin the question-and-answer period?
Operator:
Thank you. We'll now be conducting a question-and-answer session. Our first question is coming from Gary Bisbee from RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question. Perhaps your line is on mute, Mr. Bisbee?
Gary Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
I'm sorry. Can you hear me?
Michael J. Monahan - Senior Vice President External Relations:
Yeah, we can hear you, Gary.
Gary Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Okay. Sorry about that. Hey, so the first question just on the global macro, how much worse have things gotten? Is your message more that this is just a continuation of the weak-ish growth we had in 2015? Or do you feel like things really have gotten worse in the last quarter or two? Thanks.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Gary, I would say I think the base economy is a little worse. I don't think it's the driver. U.S., we expect U.S. to continue to slog along with positive GDP, but there are some positive impacts in U.S. for us, i.e. in the food service market and some of the others where frankly cheap oil price starts driving consumer behavior in our favor, at least in that part of the business. We think Western Europe's likely to be worse in 2016 than in 2015 as they've just a baseline economy. It was probably our big positive surprise last year. And we would expect it to be modestly off in terms of economic growth, but still growing this year, so we're not predicting recession. China is still more (13:15). Then you look at Latin America, clearly, Brazil is going to be not very healthy. So I'd call it a tick off, but I don't really believe that's what we're trying to forecast as a driver. As long as it doesn't turtle, we should be fine and able to grow. I think next year, I think our base sales are going to be better in 2016 than 2015.
Gary Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Okay. Fair enough. And then the follow-up question, just on margins, I guess the midpoint of the margins within the guidance assumes a deceleration of the expansion. I guess, wondering if you could just talk about the puts and takes there from underlying trend, how the benefit from lower raws is flowing through or you think it will this year, and anything else, in particular, that you've got implied in that guidance. Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, well, I would say, this year, clearly, margin accelerated throughout the year, which is what we predicted. And that was that raw material savings increased as the year went on, which is how they manifest themselves. We also had the other side, which is the Energy business cost savings effects really built throughout the year too, as we had to take out heads and other things. And obviously you have more heads out of your business in Q4 than you did in Q1, if it's an initiative that you undertake at the beginning of the year. In 2016, we would expect margins to continue to expand at a somewhat slower pace than they expanded in 2015. And really that's mainly driven by the fact that raw material delta isn't going to be a significant savings. It will be a savings, but not the same level in 2016 versus 2015 as 2015 was to 2014. But we would expect margins to continue to accelerate and improve.
Gary Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. In the interest of time, we ask that you please limit yourselves to one question and one follow up. Our next question is coming from Nate Brochmann from William Blair. Please proceed with your question.
Nate Brochmann - William Blair & Company, L.L.C:
Yeah. Good afternoon, everyone. Hey, Doug, just a little bit on the Energy business. Obviously, you've seen a lot of pressure in WellChem throughout the year, and we continue to see that a little bit. The rest of the business has held up, some way, okay. Could you comment a little bit in terms of, obviously, I'm assuming that you're getting some pricing pressure across the board, but also ex-WellChem, kind of what you're seeing in terms of whether those trends remain stable or there you're seeing a little bit of an increasing pressure here and there? And what could be some of the puts and the takes as we move throughout 2016?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. Look, we expect there's going to be continued WellChem pressure throughout the year, but obviously, it's a smaller piece of the portfolio given its decline last year. In terms of the production piece of the business or OFC, there's pricing pressure there. We had very strong production volumes in 2015. I think production will be – it's going to be about even with last year for the year, so we don't think that's really going to be the big negative impact. But there may be some slight negative in our OFC production business, not material and not significant. And then downstream, we would expect to be quite strong this year as it goes forward. I would say, net on balance, Energy, simply because the comparative period becomes much easier, is going to be at worse less of a drag than last year, at better maybe no drag in terms OI.
Nate Brochmann - William Blair & Company, L.L.C:
Okay. And then just a quick kind of bookkeeping thing, but on the interest expense being up a little bit. Is there any structural changes going on there in terms of some permanent things or is that kind of a temporary kind of one year up mark?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I'll let Dan answer this one.
Daniel J. Schmechel - Chief Financial Officer:
Hi, Nate. This is Dan. Nothing structural going on. The increase in interest expense is really based on the continuity of how we're thinking about managing the capital structure, first of all. So a slight increase in the total amount of debt. We are also doing a fairly significant chunk of refinancing of term debt, and likewise anticipating, based on the current yield curve, slightly higher short-term interest rates during the year. So, I would say, it's a tiny bit of volume, but mostly it's a rate impact. Okay.
Nate Brochmann - William Blair & Company, L.L.C:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from David Begleiter from Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.
David I. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Doug, just on the Water in Q4, it looks like that business did decelerate a little bit. Reasons why that happened and what's your expectations for 2016?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, you're right. The headline number on Water looked like it decelerated. If you strip out mining where we really had some significant pressure, Water was up 5% in the quarter year-on-year, so no real deceleration, continued strength. As we look for the year, I would say, we expect Water to accelerate through 2016. The headline number is going to be a little impaired again in the first quarter, mostly because of mining again, but that dissipates as you start annualizing against some of that pressure. And Water, for the year, we'd expect to be a pretty strong number in 2016.
David I. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Very good. And just on WellChem, Doug, how large is that business now as a percentage of the overall Energy business? Is it roughly 10% or a little bit more, a little bit less?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, it's about 10% of the Energy revenues.
David I. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from David Ridley-Lane from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please proceed with your question.
David E. Ridley-Lane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Sure. Another question on Energy. Just roughly what percentage of your business today is related to U.S. shale production? And if you have a view as to what's embedded in your revenue outlook in terms of U.S. shale related revenue?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. In total, it would be around 15% of the Energy business.
David E. Ridley-Lane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Got it. And then the fourth quarter results show pretty significant cost savings in Energy. Are there other levers that you're planning to pull or are you just counting on anniversarying the cost reductions you've already done?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, there's a little more to come but most of the benefit in 2016 versus 2015 will be annualization of what you're seeing in Q4. There's a bit more that's coming, but that's the bulk of it.
David E. Ridley-Lane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from John Quealy from Canaccord Genuity. Please proceed with your question.
John Quealy - Canaccord Genuity, Inc.:
Hi. Good afternoon, folks. So, in both Global Institutional and Global Industrial, specifically industrial food and beverage and institutional, the core institutional business, can you talk about the dynamics for 2016 price versus volume? They've held up still very well all-in in this market. So if you could just talk through some of the variables that play in 2016 for growth there on the top line.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, I would say Global Institutional, the division not the sector, we would expect to have a very similar, strong 2016 as 2015, and maybe some dynamics as to where the growth is that are a little different. We would expect margins to continue to increase in 2016. And so, that's a bit of a benefit from raws, but not significant in institutional. Continued innovation driving margin, which has really been the play in institutional for a number of years, and we have a very good innovation pipeline. In terms of F&B globally, I would say, we expect a better year in 2016 than 2015, and they had a good year last year. So there's been a bunch of new business, improved performance in North America, in particular, and continued margin expansion there. That business benefits a little more as a percent from raw material market benefit than institutional just by the mix of raw materials that they buy, but again, they're also doing a good job in innovation.
John Quealy - Canaccord Genuity, Inc.:
And then last, on the M&A environment, given the slowdown in the macro, have prices come in at all? Does it make you want to change the total dollar amount that you talked about on the Analyst Day for deployment, et cetera? Thank you very much, folks.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
M&A, look, is kind of an ongoing interest. We don't really get interested and then lose interest. I would say, right now, we've got a very rich pipeline. We ended up closing deals last year that are going to deliver over $300 million in sales. I hope we do better than that this year. The wildcard is valuation. And I would say, the market is fairly richly valued at this point in time. And so, I think we're working to be very smart and choiceful. Ultimately, we want to do deals that we know we can get very good returns on long term. That's the main metric we pay attention to, not accretion, dilution, et cetera, but what is the ultimate return going to be. We've seen this cycle before. It does come and go, and we're going to be very, very careful while we're in a frothy environment.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today's coming from Manav Patnaik from Barclays. Please proceed with your question.
Unknown Speaker:
Hi. This is actually Greg (23:04) calling on for Manav. I was just wondering if you could give a bit more color on the inputs into your Energy forecast in terms of what you're thinking about for the oil price trajectory. And then during Investor Day, you kind of talked about a snap-back in 2017. Is that still your base case or are you guys kind of thinking about more of a U-shaped recovery as we look out into 2017?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, I would say, for the year, we've been fairly consistent. We do not expect the Energy market, i.e., if you're measuring, say, oil price, to recover in 2016. It doesn't mean that we might not see increased oil prices in May and June as we move into the summer driving season, but we think that could be followed by a bit of a dip. We do believe in 2017 that the supply and demand lines start converging and that we will see a change in oil price over time. We're not predicting a snap, a U, a saucer or anything else. I think it's too early. We're probably not the best people to predict that. But ultimately, we do believe that the oil price will move north of $30. We don't believe that really happens for any extended period of time until 2017 and beyond.
Unknown Speaker:
Okay. Fair enough. And I think you talked about the cheaper gas prices as a potential tailwind for your consumer businesses. We've seen a couple of reports that that tailwind hasn't played out as much as some people would've thought of. So I'd love to hear what you're seeing in your businesses and if you're actually seeing some marginal benefit there.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. Look, you can find all kinds of metrics. I would say, the food service business, traffic hasn't really turned around, but sales in many of the food service establishments have improved, not in all. And I would say we look at both lodging and food service as healthier than they were a few years ago. Lodging has been fairly consistent, but food service in particular. In our U.S. sales, where you see the singles biggest decline in gas price because you don't have currency neutralizing it as you do in other countries, we've seen pretty robust market conditions, better.
Unknown Speaker:
Perfect. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from Dmitry Silversteyn from Longbow Research. Please proceed with your question.
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC:
Good afternoon, gentlemen. Couple of questions, if I may, first of all, you mentioned Latin America as a source of strength for your Industrial and Institutional businesses. That's a rare thing to hear these days. Can you talk about what you're doing to succeed in that region and how you look at it in 2016, obviously, with Venezuela being the deconsolidated operation now?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. So I'll give you numbers ex-Venezuela. For the year, we were double-digit in Latin America. This is on fixed currency. So that's not a small thing, given the real and everything else. What's driving it is just underlying success in securing new business. I mean there is no other – there's nothing fancy going on. We've got a good team. Businesses are focused. This is more on the Industrial side of the business is where we're having the most success throughout Latin America. And we would expect to have continued success in 2016 in that market as well.
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC:
All right. So it's a question of not so much the economies or your sectors of the economies doing well, it's just getting new business and hopefully getting pricing to offset some of the FX headwind?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, Dmitry, I would say, look, the economy can get bad enough where it absolutely impacts us. So, we're not bulletproof and we've never pretended to be. But when I had that earlier question on the economy, if it's growing at, I don't know, 4% or 3% or 3% or 2%, we're not that sensitive where we're going to feel those types of changes. What we really focus on is driving share. And we have enough share upside in virtually every business, every market we compete in that we believe, in most situations, we control our destiny. And our teams are out there trying to go secure new business. And the headlines around Latin America being in the dumps are interesting, but we believe we can continue to be the exception to that rule as long as we keep focused on driving innovation and new business.
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC:
Got you. And then the follow-up question with respect to international operations and foreign exchange expectations, you highlighted about a $0.36 headwind for the year. That's about $0.10 above the midpoint of the range you gave a couple of months ago. So I guess the question is which currencies have gotten worse since then or is your outlook on the recovery in exchange rate changed for 2016?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, I think the difference between the old forecast and the new is Venezuela. And a lot of the Venezuela impact we have in FX, because there is, in fact, a huge devaluation of their currency, which was sort of a reflection of the turmoil they have in their economy. So I think that dealt it, and if you have more questions on that, we'd be happy to address them. In terms of expectations going forward, we've given the best forecast we can. We were way off in terms of our anticipated FX impact in 2015. If you looked at what we thought was going to happen in the first quarter versus what we ended up happening, I think it was $0.18 over plan for the year. We don't pretend to be great at forecasting this. We're trying to give clarity to you so you know what our underlying forecast is and you know what our FX forecast. Obviously, if FX comes in a lot lighter than we've stated, then we are going to have better results. And conversely, if it's a lot worse than we stated, we're going to have worse results in terms of our adjusted EPS with FX. I think the FX we've got is realistic and makes sense given the environment we think we're in.
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC:
So I understand, I thought that the currency did not include the Venezuelan operations, but if they do, then I guess the guidance was about the same because I think the sum of the two impacts was about $0.40 and now you're guiding to $0.38. So that's pretty much in line. Okay. That's all. Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
You bet.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today's coming from Shlomo Rosenbaum from Stifel. Please proceed with your question.
Shlomo Rosenbaum - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. Hey, Doug, I'm just going to kind of continue to kind of beat this Energy horse over here on, if you can just walk through some of the underlying assumptions, particularly if the WellChem should decline, you're assuming production is flat, but are we going to end up or are you anticipating a scenario where the production goes to kind of the cheaper-to-produce type of oil that just requires less chemicals? In other words, I'm trying to get to what the assumptions are if we have kind of flat production revenue and (30:40) modestly lower top line, what's embedded in that? I assume there's a little bit of pricing, but are we in a situation where just the oil that they're going after is just cheaper to get oil right now?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, I guess. I may even go a little higher on this for a few minutes. I think the big change year-on-year in terms of when we talk about oil's impact, the energy impact on our business, is the fact that we're going against an entirely different base. So when we're giving an EPS forecast and growth forecast, I mean, obviously, we're comparing it against 2015 not 2014, and that's not insignificant when you look at the Energy business. So, the really only negative comparison that we have ever talk is the first quarter. And that's when the market really started diving and our business started feeling the impact of the market. So, in terms of WellChem, we think WellChem is going to be negative for year, but nowhere near the types of numbers we saw last year. It's going to be mitigated by the fact that it's going against last year. We've gained share in a couple of key segments and we feel a lot of the rig count decline is in the base as we move forward. U.S. is down 62%, so even a 20% decline isn't all that material given that you've already taken 60% of the market. You have OFC is going to be flattish for the year. We have pricing pressure there. We'll continue to have fairly solid volume. We've got some new business coming on. I mean we have secured some new business. Some fields came on during the year that were basically CapEx that was spent prior years and/or platforms that went out to sea, etcetera, that's going to be net new business. In total, we look at that flat to modestly down, but very modest. And in the downstream, we expect to have a stronger year this year on the top line than last year. So net, I think it's a very modest decline in the top line to something resembling this year's decline, which is 8%. I think it's going to be less than that would be the downside case. When you look at OI, there's mitigating. We've got cost savings going this year, started really seeing full effect in Q4. They're going to annualize. The head count moves have been taken. There are not a lot more anticipated or any really anticipated going forward, but we're going to be very judicious about heads that we add as we move forward. So cost savings are going to be a bigger positive. And the raw material markets are going to continue to benefit the Energy business. Now part of that is given back in the form of cost-plus arrangements, but not all of it. And so last year, we had some margin decline. Fourth quarter margin was up. Some of that was one-time benefits but it was probably up, if you neutralize for that, about 90 basis points in the fourth quarter. We don't expect it to be that strong throughout the whole year, but we do have steps in place now that we think mitigate margin decline. And we think volume is going to be not a significant story this year. So that's the Energy story. In net, this natural hedge we have of energy pain offset by raw material gain in the balance of the business is going to be true next year too. Those are almost a net neutral in 2015. We would expect they're going to be close to a net neutral in 2016. And so, then it's back to the Industrial, Institutional, and other businesses, which we think are going to have another strong year. I mean that's the fundamental equation.
Shlomo Rosenbaum - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay. Thank you very much for that color. We didn't hear anything about pension. Last year, we talked a lot about pension. Is there a plus or a minus going on in pension underlying, Dan?
Daniel J. Schmechel - Chief Financial Officer:
Hi. So, this is Dan. Thank you. We'll see a favorable year-on-year pension expense, okay, driven by – primarily by the lower rate environment. We are changing our accounting in the calculation of the pension expense, but we will see a year-on-year benefit. Look, I'd say this, it's largely all offset within the compensation line. You think on the back of a year like this, there's pretty significant variable compensation rebuild that has to go on in the businesses, in the corporation, which offsets most of that. Any remaining piece is essentially offset by less year-on-year benefit in the raw material markets.
Shlomo Rosenbaum - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
So, is there any way to quantify that or way that we should be thinking about that. So when we model our 2017 numbers, we don't assume a similar type of gain?
Daniel J. Schmechel - Chief Financial Officer:
It's about $0.14 and $0.14 I think, plus and minus. The pension benefit year-on-year is like a pickup of $0.14, and that's about the offset.
Shlomo Rosenbaum - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from Andy Wittmann from Robert W. Baird. Please proceed with your question.
Andrew John Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Thanks. I wanted to maybe get a little bit more detail on the margin and kind of break it down. Looks like the SG&A guidance for the year suggest that SG&A will be roughly flat as a percentage of revenue. Gross margin at least the range brackets the 2015 reported number. So I guess the question is, you said that there'd be some margin expansion in 2016. Where does it come from? And do you see it as a result of identifiable cost reductions? I guess you mentioned a little bit in the last question, Doug, or is it more as a result of just operating leverage from the business?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. I would say on the margin improvement in 2016 is pricing, still favorable raw markets, and innovation, and it's a little different by each business. Those are the inputs, mostly it's going to be in gross profit. You're right, SG&A, any pick up we would see from growth and/or volume benefit is going to be offset by investments.
Andrew John Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Got it. And then a question on cash flow and the balance sheet. I guess in the part of the script that wasn't highlighted on the call, you mentioned that there's a $700 million buyback assumed. Cash flow, I guess, don't know exactly what it's going to be, but it should be well over $1 billion, probably $1.4 billion, $1.5 billion, I would imagine. So are you expecting to deleverage the balance sheet? Or should we assume that that might be – that other capital that's not considered in the $700 million buyback is maybe the M&A budget for the year that you hope to deploy?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. Since Dan is not at the mike, I'll handle it and he can walk over and correct. So, yeah, free cash this year was $1.2 billion. It was up 15% in 2015 versus 2014, which we considered a strong performance. Cash will be a little beneficial to that next year, but not nearly as dramatic an increase. Uses of cash are going to be nearly identical in 2016 as in 2015, i.e. you saw the share buyback. It's virtually the same number in dollars as last year. And you can go and do your implied M&A, right?
Daniel J. Schmechel - Chief Financial Officer:
That's right.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Same number.
Daniel J. Schmechel - Chief Financial Officer:
Yeah. I think a good assumption would be that M&A will be directly in line with this year's. Of course what the actual number will be depends on where individual conversations progress.
Andrew John Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Thank you.
Daniel J. Schmechel - Chief Financial Officer:
But certainly no leveraging is anticipated. We'll be slightly up in debt, but the increase year-on-year in interest expense is really a rate conversation as I indicated earlier.
Andrew John Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Yeah. Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from Mike Harrison from Seaport Global Securities. Please proceed with your questions.
Michael Joseph Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC:
Hi. Good afternoon.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hi, Mike.
Michael Joseph Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC:
Doug, just looking at the organic sales number in Water, you called out the mining piece. I think that's about 15% of sales in Water. So was that down 25% or 30% year-on-year? And can you talk about what the growth rates look like on the light side of Water and heavy side?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, it was down. Mining was down double digits in the quarter. It went down 20% or 25%, but we got 15%, and you need a point and a half, I mean, that's what we're talking. And I'm talking on the core Water. There's other parts of the Water business. In terms of heavy, heavy was up 4% in the quarter, and light was up little north of 5%.
Michael Joseph Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC:
And then looking at the impact of the Venezuela deconsolidation, you called out that it's $200 million in revenues. How much of that revenue is in the Energy segment? And I guess I'm under the impression that that was relatively high-margin business. So what's the revenue and operating income impact of that deconsolidation on Energy?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I can't read that number. Energy ought to have been off by 8% (40:45). Energy was $158 million of the $200 million in sales. And I think we gave a total operating income impact number, didn't we?
Daniel J. Schmechel - Chief Financial Officer:
No. EPS is $0.17.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Oh. Okay. EPS is $0.17. You got our share count.
Michael Joseph Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC:
All right. I can do the math there. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Rosemarie Morbelli from Gabelli & Company. Please proceed with your question.
Rosemarie Jeanne Morbelli - Gabelli & Company:
Thank you. Good morning – good afternoon, rather, everyone. Looking at the Paper side, you talked about a decline in Asia-Pacific and then an improvement in North America and Europe, yet paper mills or machines or paper machines are still closing in North America and Europe, and the paper demand is expanding in Asia-Pacific and China especially. So I was just wondering where Ecolab is doing so well and why your result seems to be in opposite direction as to that of the paper industry?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, our Paper business was, what, 3% ex-Venezuela in the fourth quarter, which is probably good in the Paper business and we'd still like to see 5%. So look, tissue, towel and cardboard continue to grow. You're right. We've had to go work through and I think everybody's timing on when they have plants that are being shut down or shuttered is different. Our business in China is not healthy, and that's obviously in the 3% number. And that's a business that we're working on making sure we get positioned right moving forward, because we do believe it represents a good opportunity long term. And I would just say we've worked hard and this team has worked hard over the years to continue to improve the position, i.e., make sure your pointed to where the growth is both regionally and within the Paper segment.
Rosemarie Jeanne Morbelli - Gabelli & Company:
And then on the Healthcare, Doug, it is the first time, at least that I remember, where we actually see a little growth. So what are you doing there that is totally different from what you have done in the past? Is it a new marketing team? Have you figured out whom to talk to in order to convince them that they should be cleaning up those hospitals? Could you give us a better feel?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, I would say two things. I mean, our Healthcare still is not performing where we want it to, but it did clearly improve. It was 1% growth in 2014. You adjust for the recalls, 3% to 4% in 2015, pick whatever number. It was improved, but not meeting our expectation. We expect it to be stronger this year. The reason we believe we're accelerating is that we continue to do an improved job convincing healthcare systems that our program makes sense in light of the EHAIC challenge (43:56). And the team has improved the program, improved the story and improved the sales focus. I think what the team has in store, we feel very good about. I think we anticipate that we will continue to accelerate that business. I think that's one of the businesses that has significant upside in our portfolio, outsized upside, if you will, and we aim to get after it. But I would say we are continuing to improve there. Got a good team on it and I think we'll see better things even in 2016 versus 2015.
Rosemarie Jeanne Morbelli - Gabelli & Company:
Thank you. And if I may ask one last question, on the M&A, any particular areas where you are focusing more where the opportunities are more attractive than in others?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
We've said we have our strategic priorities. With that said, we're open to smart bolt-ons, i.e., think Swisher in virtually every business. But we always figured there was probably going to be significant low-hanging fruit in Water, simply because prior to our acquisition, they were a bit capital-starved, et cetera. So, yeah, Water is a priority. Healthcare is a priority. But if we see good technology and/or bolt-on opportunities in any of our businesses, we are very willing and able to move forward. So right now, I would say, it's much more what the market is going to offer in terms of what can we buy at a price where we're confident we can deliver good returns for shareholders long-term.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from Bob Koort from Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.
Robert Andrew Koort - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thanks. Doug, I was wondering if you could characterize what was different in your Industrial versus your Institutional business in terms of the margin expansion you delivered in 2015.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, if you look at the segment, you'd have to pull out the recall out of Institutional, but even if you do that, you'll see more significant margin expansion in Industrial. And that's just they've got more exposure to the types of raw materials that lowered as a consequence of oil lowering. And it's a mix of raw materials. So that's the single biggest impact and it built throughout the year. Look, raws go up, go down, we typically work to sell in both our Institutional and Industrial markets based on value delivered. And our equation needs to bring benefits to our customers that are financial in nature as well as, say, safety and/or risk reduction. And as a consequence, we work hard to do that ongoing so raw materials can benefit us. We tend not to give them back long-term as long as we continue to have a great value story to our customers.
Robert Andrew Koort - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Makes sense. And then can you talk about what you anticipate on sales head count and how that's changed over the last few years? And I think most folks expect GDP to grow in Europe. So is there something more sinister or something about your particular end market exposure that leads you to think Europe could actually decline as a region?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Oh. Well, one, I'm sorry if I – I don't think Europe's going to decline as a region.
Robert Andrew Koort - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Sorry, decelerate.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, well – yeah, so this year, our European business, all in, grew by 5%. That's pretty good performance in Europe and we felt pretty good about that. It also had very good OI leverage. It was 100 basis points, 110 basis points, consistent with our Renaissance program that we talked about. So all told, we've added 550 basis points to our Europe margin over the last five years. Our view on Europe is just that the economy is not going to be as robust in 2016 as 2015. It's not going to go upside down, so we'd expect growth maybe more in the 3% range than in the 5% range, but I don't think that's all the drama. It's 20% of our sales.
Robert Andrew Koort - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Great. Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Scott Schneeberger from Oppenheimer. Please proceed with your question.
Scott Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Thank you. Good afternoon. I guess just kind of high level, looking at the 2016 EPS guidance range, what would be the major, I imagine we could guess at the top one or two, but maybe the top three or four swing factors that would put you at the extremes or outside that range?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr. - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, I would say, the number one plus minus is going to have to be FX. The second would be change in the Energy market. I would say, there's probably going to be more impact if it goes up than if it goes down from here. But it could go down bad enough or could have a material impact I imagine too. But it's starting to get squeezed on the downside. And then overall economy, but typically, that doesn't impact us immediately. So, I would say, that's probably a distant third as we look at it. And then it's just other exogenous events, right, that none of us can predict, but would affect any company dealing in a global basis, be it terrorism or major economic calamity in a market. I would say this, I think our business has proven pretty resilient. If you look at our underlying forecast, we have a midpoint of 11% for EPS ex-FX in 2016. And that's really driven by business performance. It's neutral when you look at shares, interest and tax. And last year, they brought a benefit. So it is indicating that we expect our business performance to be even a bigger contributor in 2016 than in 2015. And the reason we believe that is we have the underlying trends. We know what we've sold. We know where the innovation pipeline is. And we know what's happening on pricing. And so we feel like we're well-positioned to continue to do well even in this environment.
Scott Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Great. Thanks. And then as a follow up just for modeling purposes, Dan, I think you said $0.11 ForEx impact in the first quarter and ballpark a range surrounding $0.20 for the year. How should we think about the cadence for the year just on the way you're looking at it? Thanks.
Daniel J. Schmechel - Chief Financial Officer:
Yeah, well, sort of as the first quarter and the full year numbers would progress, right. I mean we think that this will drop off a little bit by quarter as you go through the year just based on how the currencies weakened throughout – continued to weaken throughout 2015.
Scott Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. We've reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Monahan for any further closing comments.
Michael J. Monahan - Senior Vice President External Relations:
Well, that wraps up our fourth quarter conference call. This call, the associated discussion slides will be available for replay on our website. Thanks for your time and participation today, and our best wishes for the rest of the day to you.
Operator:
Thank you. And that does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.
Executives:
Michael J. Monahan - Senior Vice President External Relations Douglas M. Baker - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer Daniel J. Schmechel - Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Mike Ritzenthaler - Piper Jaffray & Co (Broker) Nate J. Brochmann - William Blair & Co. LLC Jermaine Brown - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Gary E. Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC David E. Ridley-Lane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch John Quealy - Canaccord Genuity, Inc. Manav Shiv Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc. Laurence Alexander - Jefferies LLC Andrew John Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker) Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC John E. Roberts - UBS Securities LLC Jason Anderson - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc. Michael Joseph Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC Robert Andrew Koort - Goldman Sachs & Co. Scott A. Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker)
Operator:
Welcome to the Ecolab Third Quarter 2015 Earnings Release Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. This call is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. Now, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Michael Monahan, Senior Vice President, External Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Michael J. Monahan - Senior Vice President External Relations:
Thank you. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Ecolab's third quarter conference call. With me today are Doug Baker, Ecolab's Chairman and CEO; and Dan Schmechel, our Chief Financial Officer. A discussion of our results along with the earnings release and the slides referencing the quarter's results and our outlook are available on Ecolab's website at ecolab.com/investor. Please take a moment to read the cautionary statements on these materials stating that this teleconference, the discussion and the slides include estimates of future performance. These are forward-looking statements and actual results could differ materially from those projected. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are described in the section of our most recent Forms 10-K and 10-Q, under Item 1A, Risk Factors, and in our posted materials. We also refer you to the supplemental diluted earnings per share information in the release. Starting with a brief overview of the quarter, strong new account gains and new product introductions drove solid mid-single-digit fixed currency sales growth in our Global Institutional, Industrial and Other segments during the third quarter, more than offsetting lower Global Energy sales. We leveraged that growth along with delivered product cost savings and our ongoing synergy and cost efficiency work to expand our adjusted operating margins, more than offsetting the impact of softening economies, weaker oil prices and increased currency headwinds. These, along with a lower tax rate and fewer shares outstanding, drove a solid 6% adjusted earnings per share increase. Looking ahead, we expect our Global Institutional, Industrial and Other segment to show continued superior fixed currency growth, outpacing their markets in softer international economies, as they leverage the internal work they have undertaken to further improve their sales and service effectiveness and profitability. We expect them to continue to more than offset lower results from our Energy business and produce the strongest quarter for fixed currency profit growth from our businesses this year. However, the fourth quarter will also face stronger external headwinds than previously forecast, including more unfavorable currency impacts and the effect on our operations from devaluing our Venezuelan bolivar business. As a result, we now look for the fourth quarter to show lower growth than previously expected, as the headwinds, including pension, impact earnings growth by 13 percentage points. For the full-year 2015, we continue to expect strong fixed currency profit growth in the mid-teens before the impact of unfavorable currencies, including the Venezuela devaluation and pension. We expect these will penalize growth by approximately 10 percentage points and yield a full-year adjusted earnings per share gain of 4% to 6%. Now on to few highlights from the third quarter. Reported earnings per share were $0.86. On an adjusted basis, excluding special gains and charges and discrete tax items from both years, third quarter 2015 adjusted earnings per share increased 6% to a record $1.28, despite an $0.11 or a 9 percentage point headwind from currencies and pension. The adjusted earnings per share growth was driven by fixed currency sales gains, delivered product and other cost savings, synergies, new products and the lower tax rate and share count. Our fixed currency acquisition adjusted sales were flat, as good mid-single digit growth from our Global Institutional, Industrial and Other segment was offset by lower Global Energy sales. Regionally, we saw good growth in Latin America and Europe rose 4%. Adjusted fixed currency operating margins expanded 90 basis points. In this year's tough environment, we have focused on driving new business gains and lower costs. We are using our industry-leading product innovation and service strengths to help customers achieve better results and lower operating costs, and through these aggressively drive new account gains across all of our segments. Further, raw material cost savings along with synergies and our cost efficiency work are helping to offset these headwinds. Importantly, we also continue to make key investments in our future growth drivers. We are delivering a strong fundamental business performance in 2015. As shown in slide four, we have grown profits in the mid-teens this year before externally-driven factors. The fourth quarter, shown at the midpoint of our revised range, should represent the year's best performance on this basis, growing nearly 20%, despite the recent deterioration in the energy market. However, as noted earlier, the business environment has become more challenging in recent months, as several key foreign currencies and the energy market have continued to weaken. These and other recent impacts on our outlook are summarized in the waterfall chart on slide five. Starting with the consensus forecast of $4.51 that's followed our second quarter earnings release, the recent deterioration in the energy markets has resulted in an impact of about $0.04 per share, which should be nearly offset by the aggressive actions we have taken in driving delivered product cost savings, cost efficiencies and synergies, along with other actions to offset the impact. However, increasingly unfavorable currency trends, the impact on our adjusted earnings from devaluing our Venezuelan bolivar business, initial dilution from acquisitions, and a product recall will represent approximately $0.10 per share of increased headwinds to the full year. As a result, while earnings from the fundamental business should rise in the upper teens, we expect fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share to increase 0% to 8% to the $1.20 to $1.30 range, with currency including the Venezuela devaluation and pension representing a drag of approximately 13 percentage points to earnings per share growth. Full-year adjusted earnings are expected to rise 4% to 6% to the $4.35 to $4.45 per share range with the same impacts representing a 10 percentage point drag to results. In summary, our underlying business continues to perform in line with our high expectations. We remain confident in our business, our markets and our people, as well as our capacities to meet our aggressive growth objectives over the coming years, while also delivering attractive returns in 2015 and setting up for a stronger growth in 2016. And now here's Doug Baker with some comments.
Douglas M. Baker - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks Mike. Good afternoon, everybody. So the story for the year remains quite consistent. Strong currency headwinds mute very good underlying performance. So looking through FX and pension, we forecast 15% EPS adjusted for the year and 18% for Q4, which we expect to be our strongest quarter. Unfortunately, Q4 has the stiffest currency headwinds too, totaling 11% including Venezuela, which is stronger than we had previously forecast. Energy markets were and are a huge factor for us this year, but they're not the central driver in our results. Low energy prices have caused value and price erosion in our WellChem business in particular and Energy services broadly, but that's largely been made up via lower raw materials across our platform. This is still the fact. FX is the main issue. The good news is when you look beyond FX, the business is quite healthy. The Institutional, Industrial, and Other segments combined are growing over 100 basis points faster than last year. The expanded fixed currency margin as well by 200 basis points in Q3, and a projected 130 basis points for the year. The Energy markets are worse than we or anyone else foresaw at the beginning of this year and our business results are softer than planned as a result. But with that said, the Energy business has held up well in the face of a very difficult market. Our OFC and Downstream businesses combined, which are now 90% of the business are forecast to be up modestly on the top line for the year and better on the bottom line reflecting synergies. WellChem is where we've seen the majority of our pain. They will be down some 40% for the year, reflecting the dramatic decline in NA drilling activity. Going into the year, they are expected to be about 18% of the business. They now represent under 10%. Now, we previously forecasted an improvement in Q4 versus Q3 in energy, and we still do, albeit not as large an improvement but still an improvement. So in total for the year, ES will be down high single-digits on the top line and modestly more on the bottom, so adjusting for Venezuela margins will only be off 10 basis points to 30 basis points for the year, so we've held there quite well. Lastly, let me make a few comments on our forward view. So consistent with our past practice, we'll be sharing our 2016 forecast in February during our Q4 release call. With that said, our early view is we believe our strong underlying business performance in our Institutional, Industrial, and Other segments will continue through next year and start to show through particularly in the second half of 2016. Our Energy business should show improvement as the year progresses too and will likely show flat to modest growth in total. Still, the Energy market and currency including Venezuela will be a comparison challenge that tapers as the year progresses. So Q1 should have similar – could have similar headwinds as Q4, but they should ease as the year goes on. Net, we believe our reported and adjusted results will improve in total as well. With that as an opening, let me open it now up to Q&A for Mike, Dan, and myself.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll now begin the Q&A session. We only ask that you limit yourself to one question and a brief follow-up to give others a chance to ask a question. Speakers, let's just give a few seconds for the questions to queue up first. Okay, our first question will be coming from the line of Mr. Mike Ritzenthaler. Sir, your line is now open.
Mike Ritzenthaler - Piper Jaffray & Co (Broker):
(11:20-11:29) reflect the new business wins particularly within Industrial and Institutional. I think they're well reflected in fixed currency growth numbers. My question is does 3Q and the outlook for 4Q, I guess, have embedded in at the right run rate of overhead that can be further leveraged into 2016? Or is there more to add there?
Douglas M. Baker - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Mike, I apologize but we didn't hear the first part of your question. I don't know if you were still muted by the operator or what. So could you repeat it again? I apologize.
Mike Ritzenthaler - Piper Jaffray & Co (Broker):
Oh, sure. Yeah, no problem. It was just a question about the corporate account efforts and some of the enterprise selling. I think the results, they speak for themselves. I think they're well reflected in the fixed currency growth numbers. And the question was around the overhead in 3Q, is that staffed according to how you've envisioned that in order to leverage into 2016 in those businesses?
Douglas M. Baker - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. I'd say it's more reflective than not. I would say the only place where we continue to see, I would say, lower expense levels is Energy. And part of the story of 4Q on the bottom line is we'll see and realize full cost savings benefits from the actions that have been taken this year in Q4. So that will then move forward into 2016. On balance, I think the cost structure you see in the rest of the business is fairly indicative of what you'll see next year.
Mike Ritzenthaler - Piper Jaffray & Co (Broker):
Okay. Fair enough. And my one follow-up for me is, maybe for Dan since we have him on the call, is it fair to assume that the full-year impact of the bolivar is $0.12, something like that, if we just annualize the 4Q impact?
Daniel J. Schmechel - Chief Financial Officer:
Yeah, the number that we're coming up with this is about $0.13. So, yeah, it's almost closer to a direct annualization. That would be the impact of annualizing the devaluation. Okay?
Mike Ritzenthaler - Piper Jaffray & Co (Broker):
Okay. All right. Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question will be coming from the line of Mr. Nate Brochmann from William Blair. Sir, your line is now open.
Nate J. Brochmann - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Yes. Hello, everyone. I wanted to talk, Doug, a little bit, obviously, you guys have always delivered the consistency and deliver what you say you will. With Energy continuing to kind of be a little bit of a drag in terms of thinking that it would be a third quarter or fourth quarter bottom, and it feels again like we're getting close to that. But where is your level of confidence lie in the other businesses as maybe the global economy gets a little bit weaker that they can continue to offset that if that were to get pushed out a little bit further in terms of where the real bottom ends up being?
Douglas M. Baker - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, I'd say a couple of things. One, I think our institutional, industrial and other businesses are doing quite well. Many of our large businesses are accelerating second half versus first half. Have had great success in terms of new business productivity. I don't think – third quarter was not a great quarter from a GDP standpoint as far as I can tell anywhere. So I don't think we are currently performing in a good environment heading for a bad environment. I feel like we've been performing well in a lousy environment, which is likely to continue. So emerging markets turtled early this year if not late last year. U.S. economy has not been in any great shape, so I think the only positive surprise you could point to economically in the world would be Europe. And our Europe business is reflecting it. It was up 4% in the third quarter. And we expect continued strong growth in Europe. So I would say I'm confident that those businesses continue to perform well moving forward, because I don't think they've gotten any tailwind from the economy. In terms of Energy bottoming, it seems like it's 0 and 100 for anybody predicting the bottom of this Energy market. I would say we are seeing kind of sequentially the same business albeit a little stronger in Q4 versus Q3. What we are confident in is that the comps get easier the second half of next year than they've been, right? We're going against double-digit comps in the second half right now, last year in the Energy business. And so this eases and frankly makes it a bit easier as you move forward to show growth.
Nate J. Brochmann - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Okay. And then just one quick follow-up in terms of the raw material offset. Obviously that continues to flow through. Can you talk a little bit about the runway there in terms of what's still on the board in terms of the flow through and rates of renegotiations?
Douglas M. Baker - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, I mean, a lot of that's going to depend on what your view is of oil. But I think this natural offset that we talked about at the beginning of last year has come through. And so what I'll say is if our view is oil stays exactly here for the next 14 months, you're going to have pressure from the Energy business in a comparison standpoint early in the year offset by favorable comparison on raw materials and then both axes cross and come together. If oil degrades further, raw materials will get lower, and we'll have the same formula that we've had so far this year. So I'll just tell you, I just don't think that's going to be the major driver of the results. It wasn't this year. I know it creates a lot of noise, even here where we've had somewhat we're on the lower end of our outlook that we talked about even in 2009, 2010 meeting – our investor meeting. We've seen improvement in raw material pricing that partially offset that. So this equation is in place. It will likely continue.
Nate J. Brochmann - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Okay. Great. Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question will be coming from the line of Mr. David Begleiter from Deutsche Bank. Sir, your line is now open.
Jermaine Brown - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Hi. Good afternoon. This is actually Jermaine Brown filling in for David. Is double-digit or even low teens EPS growth possible for 2016? And if so, what are the different puts and takes to get to that?
Douglas M. Baker - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
We're not here to give a forecast. I think what we indicated is – net as we look I guess, as far as we're going to go is, we would expect reported results and adjusted results to be better than this year. But our commitment to 20% ROIC, 20% margin and 15% going EPS over a period of time remains intact, we think very real and deliverable.
Jermaine Brown - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Understood. And one more, if I can. Which, if any, of your expectations, excluding Energy, have changed since your September Investor Day?
Douglas M. Baker - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
All the change that impacted the forecast, I mean to be honest – look, we wish Energy was stronger, not weaker, but Energy is not the reason we're lowering our forecast, because it was nearly offset by other issues. The issue was really FX, including Venezuela, and that's the piece of the forecast that changed dramatically, and it changed post-Investor Day. So – all right?
Jermaine Brown - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Understood. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question will be coming from the line of Mr. Gary Bisbee from RBC Capital Markets. Sir, your line is now open.
Gary E. Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Yeah, hi. Thanks. I guess just following up, Doug and Mike, both of you said you thought you're setting up for a stronger 2016, and I realize you're not giving guidance, but can you go through any of the major reasons you believe that? I mean, I guess like Energy comps get better by – get a lot easier, particularly in the second half of the year. The FX, based on where we are now, becomes less of a headwind. Is it those two factors that lead you to make that comment? Or is there anything else that we should think of?
Douglas M. Baker - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, I would say it's several things, including those. So we're quite confident we're going to continue to perform well in our Industrial, Institutional and Other segments. The Energy business will be improved next year versus this. You can argue with us is it going be modest growth, modest decline? It's not going to be – it's going to be better than this year for a variety of reasons. And then, yeah, FX headwinds are more likely than not to be less next year than they are this year. And I think that's fairly safe. Sooner or later, they're going to drive the economy down in the U.S., and that will fix FX.
Gary E. Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Okay. And then the M&A dilution, I assume that's Swisher. Can you give us an update on how much – how long do you think you'll have that? How much do you expect the dilution to be? And maybe just from a high level, do you think you keep most of that client base and this actually becomes nicely accretive in a year or so? Or is your expectation that a bunch of that bleeds off because they want to stick with the lower-priced option as opposed to upgrade to your offerings? Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, I think in our model we don't anticipate that everybody's going to stay, which would be our standard model. So I think there's some expected attrition. We're not going to get into how much. But I would say the vast majority of the business sticks. We think – consider it – look, I've seen a model that says it's minorly. I would say it's probably going be neither accretive or dilutive next year. It will be modestly dilutive early and then starting to get offset as we round a midpoint of next year. Long-term, it's hard to put a model together, does it make that deal look like a great deal for us, simply because the price we're buying it for? And so I'm quite confident that it'll ultimately prove to be a very, very good deal for shareholders, even if it has short-term pain. And the pain really is driven by the fact that this business is, as has been well advertised, is losing money. And you can't turn it from a money loser into a money winner in a day. And so you're going take on some of the lost run rate, and then we've got to go fix this business, but we've got to go do it in a way that doesn't erode the customer base any more than it might happen naturally.
Gary E. Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question – give me just a moment. Give me just a moment for your next question.
Michael J. Monahan - Senior Vice President External Relations:
We'll move on to the next question. Operator, we can't hear a question being asked. David? Hello? Operator, we're not hearing anything on our end.
Operator:
Our next question will be coming from Mr. David Ridley-Lane from Bank of America. Sir, your line is already open.
David E. Ridley-Lane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Sure. Great. Within your modest revenue growth expectations for Energy in 2016, can you give some color on the expectations around the three components WellChem, production and downstream?
Douglas M. Baker - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
For 2016?
David E. Ridley-Lane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Yes.
Douglas M. Baker - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, well, WellChem, what we would say is we were probably more likely not to see very modest growth, but it's going to be starting at quite a low base. And so WellChem in the fourth quarter is about 10% of the business, as I mentioned in my opening remarks. It started out with an expectation of being about 18%. Part of the business has been de-risked just by the fact that we've gone through the decline on a major piece of the business. And so call that flat to modestly up. Downstream will be up, we expect, again next year. And then OFC will gather steam throughout the year. We'll start with some pressure simply because of the fundamentals in the market, but we would expect to be flat to modestly up, too.
David E. Ridley-Lane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Got it. And then not to make too much of this, because I recognize there's rounding there, but on the pricing, just to check, the pricing in the non-Energy business remains sort of in the 1% to 2% range and what's dragging it down to, around to zero, is some of the contracts that are tied to oil price. Is that right?
Douglas M. Baker - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, the non-Energy businesses have pricing just north of 1%. And then we're flat in total, so I guess you can figure out that Energy being 30%, what Energy is.
David E. Ridley-Lane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question will be coming from Mr. John Quealy from Canaccord. Sir, your line is now open.
John Quealy - Canaccord Genuity, Inc.:
Hey, folks. Good afternoon. Just following up on the Energy price question, can you talk about how much was competitive in terms of trying to get new accounts or new business within accounts rather than the peg to oil?
Douglas M. Baker - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, getting new accounts typically wouldn't count against your pricing necessarily, because it's net new business for you as you go out. It would be protecting – it would be either protecting business, trading price for volume and/or cost-plus businesses. We haven't gone through and done a pure accounting of what percentage each of those things, and I would say, the biggest pressure is obviously in the North American portion of our Energy business, is where we have the most price pressure. And we obviously have sizable business outside of the U.S. where it's not been as acute early. Typically, though, that's a follower. And we expect we will continue to have modest price pressure moving forward as we go on. WellChem has been the single hardest hit component of that business, but all three segments of the business have been hit by price.
John Quealy - Canaccord Genuity, Inc.:
Okay. Thanks. And as a follow up, just to be clear, on the M&A expectations moving forward, you gave guidelines in September on total dollars, but in terms of accretion/dilution, is it going to vary by property, vary by segment and what you go after? Or how should we think about accretion dilution for most deals moving forward? Thank you, folks.
Douglas M. Baker - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, I would say deals are very rarely dilutive. In fact, we had a deal that we were very interested in and had a high level of confidence we were going to close. It ended up being bought by somebody else. The reason we didn't match the price – we actually had a chance to buy it at a lower price – was it was going to be a terrible return, even though it was going to be quite accretive. And with the low interest rates right now, it's not that hard to have an accretive deal. I think what we're trying to be is also very careful about what types of returns these businesses are going to generate over the medium and long-term. And we're going be disciplined there. We were in the 2006, 2007 run up period. We never regretted that. We're going to try to be disciplined through this period as well. So typically, I'd say deals will be accretive not dilutive but we're going to make sure they're good returns.
John Quealy - Canaccord Genuity, Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question will be coming from the line of Mr. Manav Patnaik from Barclays. Sir, your line is now open.
Manav Shiv Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Yeah, good afternoon, gentlemen. So I wanted – you mentioned earlier obviously that almost everyone's been 0 out of 100 in forecasting Energy and this year we've seen your guidance in Energy coming down step-by-step every quarter. So I was just wondering going into 2016 as you guys sit down doing your budgeting and coming out with a forecast, like – what are some of the lessons learned this year in terms of – do you come out next year with sort of much more conservative view and hope things just look better? Or do you just continue this step-by-step and work with the Energy market?
Douglas M. Baker - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, I'd say this. You're right. On Energy, we brought down our expectations on Energy probably every call. With that said, I would like to remind, we have not brought down our expectations for our overall business performance underneath FX. And so whatever decline we've had in Energy has been continually offset through raw material savings and other work that we've done across the company. And so I just don't – this isn't an Energy business. It's a business made up of several elements, and in total those elements have performed very well, 15% for the year and as we've talked about 18% in Q4. So I think that's got be the overall understanding. Now, with that said, in Energy, look, we're in a long line of people we haven't forecasted the Energy fall. And part of it is we rely on published data like everybody else. And I would agree with you. It has not been a great forecaster. I think our lessons learned going forward is we're going to continue to look at this very closely. We're going to continue to understand we have a natural hedge, which is as the Energy market softens, our raw materials go down too. We're going to make sure that we've got additional plans to make sure that our underlying business performance remains quite healthy, well invested, and well-positioned for the long-term, which I think we get good marks on all of those. I think the big miss that we've got is on FX. And to be honest, I don't bias for our FX trading and our forecasting capability. We've never broadcast that we're going to be good at it. What we have been historically good at is forecasting our underlying business performance and I think that still stands.
Manav Shiv Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Okay. Fair enough. And just a follow-up on the Other segments. I think to the earlier question and remarks around you expect the Other segments to show – I think it was continued superior fixed currency growth outpacing the market despite the softness in international economies. Is that still – should we still think of that comment as being in the 4% to 6% range? Or does that imply acceleration from there? Just some guidelines on how to think of those comments you guys had.
Douglas M. Baker - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, I think, say, well, I would stay in about the range we're performing at right now. I think you're going to have some businesses accelerate, some remain under pressure. In total, I think it's going to be more of the same on the top line through next year just given where the general economy is.
Manav Shiv Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Got it. Thanks a lot guys.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question will be coming from the line of Mr. Laurence Alexander from Jefferies. Sir, your line is now open.
Laurence Alexander - Jefferies LLC:
Good afternoon. Two quick ones. On the Healthcare business, the packaging recall, any sort of significant changes procedures? Or is this more of a one product blip? And secondly on Institutional, was the initiatives to globalize and standardize competencies, can you give us a sense for how far along that cultural shift is? And are there any regions which have proven more difficult than expected?
Douglas M. Baker - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
So Healthcare, yeah, we were obviously changing procedures on the specific product where we had the recall. I would I guess point out we haven't had a lot of conversation about this. It was a voluntary recall. We went out and did this through an abundance of caution. I think we did exactly the right thing. If you want to be trusted, you have to act at a trustworthy manner. And I think the team's managed this. We don't expect long-term volume issues from this or anything else. It was really a packaging related issue not a product related issue. But they end up related. So this isn't systemic. It was an issue on this product. In terms of Institutional cultural harmonization, I think this is going to be – one, it's not going be identical all elements of the world, because the world's not identical all over. And we're going to have to have the culture that works in a given market. But with that said, there's going to be a lot of consistency across markets and across the business. So look, we continue to make progress. Institutional was really the last of our businesses to globalize. It's made, I think, great strides in many ways and has still a lot of room to go. I think one of the reasons that we remain bullish is there's so much darn upside in our businesses as we globalize and expand our best practices around the world. And institutional would be a good case in point. So, you've got the U.S. business where we have very good share growing at 7%. We're accelerating in other markets, but we have a lower share, significant opportunity, significant opportunity to improve practice and culture. And as those things come along, I think you're going to see continued improvement in those markets both on the top line and bottom line as well. So I don't know if I'd call out one market over another, I think the challenges are different by market. Europe, we're making headway. Europe has had its challenges, but I also can plainly see that we're making progress there.
Laurence Alexander - Jefferies LLC:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question will be coming from the line of Mr. Andy Wittmann from Baird. Sir, your line is now open.
Andrew John Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Hi. I just want to talk a little bit about the offsets that you were able to achieve in the third quarter, the $0.03 offset to the headwinds. And it sounds, Doug, from your comments that it's largely raw materials led. And you've stressed the fact that that's offsetting the top line trends. I guess the questions are, was there anything one-time in nature, or are those cost savings sustainable? And how many times can you keep pressing on the raw material button before the supply chain's unable to give you any more?
Douglas M. Baker - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, I mean, supply – I don't want to minimize the hard work supply chain's done on raw materials, because it's been considerable. But the reason raw material button keeps getting pushed is because the energy market keeps weakening. And it's the main driver ultimately of the raw material pricing. So that's very correlated there. In terms of the other things, I would say if we were going to go do a refresh on this, we're going to end up with 440 (36:04) today, but for a different reason. And you would probably have more in the other bucket from raw materials than we have right now, but the other thing's in there. Some of them are renegotiating and lowering costs of things like fleet, and we also have share repurchase in there and some other things. So these have legs, but they're not all exactly directly related. I mean, I think the fleet is because it's a cost, but shares aren't to operating performance per se as you go through on it. I would say, we knew we had these opportunities moving in and had planned to take advantage of them in the year. And so they're not big surprises, but they're a mix of results.
Andrew John Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Got it. And then my follow-up, I guess, is for Dan. Dan, the tax rate was down 25.8%, and you guided 27%. Should we, as investors and analysts, be thinking of that as the new base rate, recognizing that you're looking for R&D credit in the fourth quarter? But is that the way we should be thinking about 2016? Is it something closer to 26% rather than 27%?
Daniel J. Schmechel - Chief Financial Officer:
Yes. I do think that's right. So in our guidance, of course, is the assumption that the R&D tax credit is renewed, which we're quite hopeful of and expect, frankly. And then I would be thinking of a 2016 tax rate in the 26% range.
Andrew John Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question will be coming from the line of Mr. Dmitry Silversteyn from Longbow Research. Sir, your line is now open.
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC:
Good morning, or, yeah, I guess, good afternoon now. Couple of things. First of all, can you talk – you talked about sort of the growth you're getting in North America and the fact that your European businesses outside of Energy are picking up versus the sort of the target that we have out there of about 10-points improvement in Europe available, and you're certainly along that. Can you update us where you are on that pathway and sort of how you're thinking about the timing of getting the rest of that margin opportunity accessed in Europe?
Douglas M. Baker - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. Europe, we'll end up roughly 200 basis points combined Q3, Q4, we're on average. For the year, we're going be right around 100 basis points. We may be a little south, but it's going be fairly modest if we're south, and a lot of that's just FX costs and some other things that we've got in that business, which we'll deal with over time. I think we're up over cumulative 500 basis points at this point in time, so we're going to end up the year about 7.5%. Started off south of 2.5% (38:54) when we started this initiative. So we've made significant progress. We talked then that we expected to get this business into double digits. I would say that's still our view. A key driver, we said, had to become volume, and I think you're seeing that this year as we've started to see some top-line growth as well. And we talked early in the year that we would expect around 3% in that business for the year, and we still say that's what we expect to see, which is stronger than it's been in the past years. So I would say we remain bullish on our ability to get to double-digit OI margins in Europe, and we've made great progress.
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC:
Okay. And in terms of timing, when you can get that, is that – I mean, obviously, the world is changing, but as you sit and you look at it today, and you provided some outlook on 2016, is this sort of a 2017, 2018 event? Or is this sort of a still indeterminate future?
Douglas M. Baker - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I would say same pathway, 100 basis points a year, so two-and-a-half years.
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC:
Okay. And then second, my second follow-up question, on the Venezuelan devaluation and the impact it's having on your guidance, and especially the fourth quarter. Can you sort of size this business for us and why it was such an impactful hit? I mean, I understand that the currency sold off significantly, but I just never thought it was that big of a portion of your Latin American business, number one. And number two, if currencies stay at these levels, how much of a headwind are you looking in the first half of 2016 before you anniversary it? Is it similar, kind of $0.02 to $0.03 a quarter?
Daniel J. Schmechel - Chief Financial Officer:
So, hi, this is Dan. So let's – we'll start with sizing the business, okay? So in 2014, based on a 6.30 bolivar per U.S. dollar exchange rate, sales in for the Venezuela business were just south of $200 million. And by piece, right, this is a business that is about 70% Energy and roughly 10% each for the Water, Paper and F&B business. So, it's not an enormous business in the context of Ecolab's business overall, but it's nonetheless, sizable. And – so here's what's going on in Venezuela, if you're not following this. It's a country, obviously, in some chaos, crisis even. And it is hyper-inflationary, okay? And so the official exchange rate is and has remained 6.30 bolivar per U.S. dollar. However, for most importation, including for us, these rates have been moving towards 200 bolivar per dollar, so enormous change in the currency regimes that we're operating under. We have, through the year, taken first our Water and Paper business, then Food & Beverage, right, and Institutional, and now finally the Energy business from reporting at this 6.30 bolivar rate to 200 bolivars per dollar rate. We do it because we think that that is the – yeah, 6.3 bolivars per dollar, thank you – is that we do it because we think that, we want to make sure that we're giving the best perspective on how this business is performing. If you continue to report the business at 6.3 bolivars per dollar, as you get pricing or as you get cost inflation, it's highly distortional to the P&L. Okay? So what we decided to do, effective for the fourth quarter, is to begin to report the sizable portion of the Energy business at a bolivar to dollar exchange rate of 200-to-1 (42:32), and that is having the impact in our – really the impact to our prior forecast that you're seeing here. So, fully $0.02 of the change, forecast to forecast, is being driven by this Venezuela bolivar impact across the Energy business.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question will be coming from the line of Mr. John Roberts from UBS. Sir, your line is now open.
John E. Roberts - UBS Securities LLC:
All right, thank you. Maybe I'll ask another question on Energy, since no one's asked one yet. The $0.04 adjustment for the full year 2015 earnings, was much of that recognized in the third quarter? Or is it mostly a fourth quarter $0.04?
Douglas M. Baker - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
The majority of it's in fourth quarter. Some of it was in the third.
John E. Roberts - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. So really the slip here is in October that you've seen so far?
Douglas M. Baker - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I think it was a view honestly that fourth quarter in particular is going be weaker. And the past patterns aren't going to hold true, particularly in North America. And so there was a takedown of some expectations as a consequence of that.
John E. Roberts - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. And even with the Healthcare 1% sales adjustment from the recall, the growth rate there still isn't much above the Paper segment. When does that accelerate?
Douglas M. Baker - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, I mean, it was a quarter. It had been performing better than that in the first half, but I would say, we expect Healthcare to continue to perform better than it is right now. Let me just say, a recall is sort of all hands on deck. You've got your salespeople walking into every account, taking product out or making sure that we get these shipments flipped. So it's quite distracting.
John E. Roberts - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. So you'd say the effect was more than 1%, the direct effect was 1%, and then there was a meaningful indirect effect?
Douglas M. Baker - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. Well, let me say, recalls aren't positive for sales, typically. And so certainly, yes, there was a direct effect in a, let's just say, a lot of time spent on something that's not net growing your business.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question will be coming from the line of Mr. Jason Anderson from Stifel. Sir, your line is now open.
Jason Anderson - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Good afternoon. I'm in for Shlomo today. Just a quick question. I appreciate the color on the slide on the progression from 2Q and your change from the midpoint on the guidance. But I'm just wondering, the top line comes down about $0.15. So there's, I guess by quick math maybe a few pennies to $0.05 off the top line that maybe you don't speak to. And I'm wondering, should we chalk that up to Energy? Or is there anything else going on there that you could elaborate on?
Douglas M. Baker - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
The top line comes off. I'm sorry, I didn't quite...
Jason Anderson - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
I'm sorry, the upper end – sorry, the upper end of guidance coming down about $0.15. And you kind of attribute maybe $0.10 or $0.10 or $0.11 to the issues lined out in slide five? But I'm just wondering maybe the top line coming down a bit more than that, are there other things we should be thinking about? Or should we chalk it up to Energy? Or...
Douglas M. Baker - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I would say that guidance we basically left in place 7-28 (46:12) and then carried forward, I think, signaled typically there's a narrowing of guidance as you go through the year. I think we'll focus more on midpoint to midpoint in our guidance if anything. And that's what we've been referring to. I don't – I think in the middle of the year, if you've got a large range and you've got more topside, it can be – FX can go favorable instead of reverse. The economy's can get better, which they were forecast to do, not get worse, et cetera. I mean, there's a host of things. But no, I wouldn't pinpoint it on Energy.
Jason Anderson - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Great. Thanks for that.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question will be coming from the line of Mr. Mike Harrison from Seaport Global Securities. Sir, your line is now open.
Michael Joseph Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC:
Hi. Good afternoon. Doug, I was wondering if you could talk about the Water business a little bit. Maybe provide some details on how the integration is going of the Jianghai business and maybe what kind of synergies you're seeing from that on both the top and bottom line?
Douglas M. Baker - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, I would say early results of Jianghai – and we're calling them early because we're only a couple quarters into it, have been quite favorable. Our expectation is we'll be ahead of plan on that business in terms of contribution. And that's mostly driven by business performance. So I would say, so far so good. Integration, we've got a good team on it. Our managers met on this late last week. And I think we're progressing against all the things that we want to do. Importantly, just like our other integrations, we expect to learn as much from Jianghai as we are going to impart to them. And so a lot of this is making sure we understand business model, structure. They had a sales model that was not that dissimilar to the sales models we've set up in other parts of the world in Water, and how do we then orient ours more like that for the Chinese market. So I think there's a lot of things that we plan to get out of this acquisition other than just growth as a consequence of buying another company.
Michael Joseph Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC:
All right. And then with regard to the Energy segment and the just the cost savings and synergy expectations. I believe you had said last quarter that you were expecting to get about $15 million of incremental cost reductions in Q4 versus Q3. Can you update that number? And maybe give us a sense of what kind of incremental cost savings would be in 2016 versus 2015?
Douglas M. Baker - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, we may have to – I mean, here's what's – we clearly are continuing to lower our cost structure in Energy and Q4 is going be roughly $10 million lower than Q3 in terms of cost structure. So you annualize that, you're going to get 30 (49:16) out of it next year in one, two and three as you go through. So there's work to be done there. But we're going get to a point, and we are close to it now, where we feel we've done the right thing on lowering our costs. What we don't want to do is cut too deeply into muscle because ultimately this business does turn. As we've always said, we think the turn in the market is post 2016. That's been a consistent view and it remains our view, but we have taken steps to lower the cost.
Michael Joseph Harrison - Seaport Global Securities LLC:
Thanks very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question will be coming from Mr. Bob Koort from Goldman Sachs. Sir, your line is now open.
Robert Andrew Koort - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thanks very much. Doug, I'm curious, you guys bought Champion when the energy markets were certainly showing some positive momentum. Do you get any increased excitement maybe to pick up some companies on sale as we go through this downturn?
Douglas M. Baker - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yes. I would say in our M&A list are some energy properties, for lack of a better term, companies that we hope we're able to buy. It could be a combination of things. I mean, it can be technology that we think is leveraged, but certainly this is a good time to be looking for certain things in the Energy business. I think as I've also said, these are not going be huge deals, Champion-esque in size at all. They're going be probably smaller deals more because that's what's out there. But that should be the expectation.
Robert Andrew Koort - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
And I'm curious, in that portfolio, what more do you need to be more competitive? And it seems like you've got some pretty sizable competitors out there. So are there technologies you're missing? Are there geographies you're missing? What do you need to supplement your portfolio with?
Douglas M. Baker - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, I don't think this is a case of we've got a technical hole that inhibits our competitiveness. Instead, I would say, there are some technologies we see that may create adjacencies or additional opportunities in our customer base that, if it doesn't happen, we remain quite competitive, quite viable. We don't think we have a scale disadvantage at all in our business. While we go against competitors who are larger in total, they aren't larger in the chemistry that we sell. And in fact, we've got scale advantage versus them in fact in that – in what we're delivering. So I would say it's more on periphery or areas that we think we could capitalize on, create annuity type models like we have in other parts of the business. So it would be more that's where we are fishing.
Robert Andrew Koort - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
And lastly, if I could sneak it in, you responded to a question about Healthcare and a quarter doesn't make a trend, but you have seen some deceleration. Do you feel you're losing share there? Is the competitive base different than in your traditional Cleaning business? Why isn't that end-market as robust as it would seem to be?
Douglas M. Baker - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. Well, I would say, look, the Europe business is growing well. We've got a Contamination Control business that's growing quite well. And we have portions of our portfolio, particularly in the U.S., which aren't doing very well, masking what I would call decent core growth. And so our focus is to continue to focus on what we think is going to drive us long term and sort of pull through that way. And we will continue to get after (52:58) hospitals. Hand care is still very viable in that business. And we also have a good Contamination Control business which gives us inroads into a very attractive market which we're going to go follow as well. So we feel good overall about our Healthcare opportunities. We don't feel great about the results in the third quarter.
Operator:
Thank you. Our last question will be coming from the line of Mr. Scott Schneeberger from Oppenheimer. Sir, your line is now open.
Scott A. Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Thanks. I'll just make it one. The Industrial production seems to have come down from the first half of the year in the third quarter. And your Industrial – I know it's not directly correlated, but your Industrial segment seems to have accelerated a little bit in growth if you do constant currency and take out the acquisition. Doug, what's behind that? What's giving that slight bit of acceleration? And do you anticipate that persisting?
Douglas M. Baker - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, we've continued to gain share in those businesses. And so I mean, the main thing that's driving all of our businesses is our ability to gain share. Most of the – I wouldn't – the majority of our markets are flat to modestly up, but they're not – that's not the driver. It's been share gains. Energy being, of course, the exception where obviously you've got just market disruption right now as a consequence of the drop in oil price. If you look within our Industrial segment, you'll see pressure in the heavy industry part of that portfolio, be it mining, steel in some respects. China, in particular, you'll see real pressure in mining, steel and also paper because of a draw-down and lack of production overall. But with that said, we've been able to offset it. Water is doing quite well in accelerating, and in light water, our core Water business is healthier and getting better. It's 100 basis point to 150 basis point faster growing in the second half versus the first. And I like what they're doing, so we expect that business to continue to accelerate. I think we've found our sea legs there. So I would expect our Industrial business to continue to perform, even with some pressure on some segments.
Scott A. Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Great. Thanks. I'll leave it at that.
Operator:
Thank you so much. And now I would like to turn the call back over to Mr. Monahan for some closing comments.
Michael J. Monahan - Senior Vice President External Relations:
Thank you. That wraps up our third quarter conference call. This conference call and the associated discussion slides will be available for replay on our website. Thank you for your time and participation today, and best wishes for the rest of the day. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. That concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Michael J. Monahan - Ecolab, Inc. Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.
Analysts:
Nate J. Brochmann - William Blair & Co. LLC David I. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Gary E. Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC David E. Ridley-Lane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch John Quealy - Canaccord Genuity, Inc. Manav S. Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc. Shlomo H. Rosenbaum - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc. Andrew J. Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker) Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC Mike Ritzenthaler - Piper Jaffray & Co John E. Roberts - UBS Securities LLC Michael J. Harrison - Global Hunter Securities LLC Rosemarie J. Morbelli - Gabelli & Company P.J. Juvekar - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker) Robert A. Koort - Goldman Sachs & Co. Scott A. Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker)
Operator:
Thank you all for standing by, and welcome to the Ecolab Second Quarter 2015 Earnings Release Conference Call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. This call is being recorded. If you have objections, you may disconnect at this time. Now I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Michael Monahan, Senior Vice President, External Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Michael J. Monahan - Ecolab, Inc.:
Thank you. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Ecolab's Second Quarter Conference Call. With me today is Doug Baker, Ecolab's Chairman and CEO. As you may have seen, we are using a different format this quarter in which we have posted a discussion of our operating results, and will present only abbreviated highlights on this call. The posted discussion along with our earnings release and the slides referencing the quarter's results and our outlook are available on Ecolab's website at ecolab.com/investor. Please take a moment to read the cautionary statements on these materials stating that this teleconference, the discussion and the slides include estimates of future performance. These are forward-looking statements and actual results could differ materially from those projected. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are described in the section of the most recent Form 10-K under item 1-A, risk factors, and in our posted materials. We also refer you to the supplemental diluted earnings per share information in the release. Starting with a brief overview of the quarter, strong new account gains and new product introductions drove good mid-single digit fixed currency sales growth in our Global Institutional, Industrial and Other segments during the second quarter to more than offset lower Global Energy sales. We leveraged that growth along with delivered product cost savings, decreased variable compensation and our ongoing synergy and cost efficiency work as well as pricing to more than offset substantial currency and pension headwinds and increase our adjusted operating margins. These along with lower tax rates and fewer shares outstanding drove a solid adjusted earnings per share increase. Looking ahead, we expect 2015 to be another year of superior growth, despite mixed macroeconomic and market trends as well as substantially unfavorable currency exchange and pension costs. We are seeing good sales growth in our Global Institutional, Industrial and Other segments, primarily a result of internal work we have undertaken to further improve our effectiveness. Lower oil prices have yielded lower delivered product costs while also negatively impacting our Global Energy segment. Net we continue to look for a very strong profit growth in the mid-teens area before currency and pension effects. We continue to expect currency and pension to represent a combined unfavorable impact of $0.38 per share in 2015, reducing 2015 earnings per share growth by nine percentage points. Our 2015 full-year adjusted earnings per share forecast remains centered in a $4.45 to $4.60 per share range, representing 6% to 10% growth as further fixed currency sales growth, appropriate pricing, lower variable compensation, innovation and synergies more than offset 2015's challenges. And now on to a few highlights from the quarter. Reported second quarter earnings per share were $1. On an adjusted basis, excluding special gains and charges and discrete tax items from both years, second quarter 2015 adjusted earnings per share increased 5% to a record $1.08 despite a $0.09 headwind from currencies and pension. The adjusted earnings per share growth was driven by fixed currency sales gains, delivered product and other cost savings, lower variable compensation, synergies, new products and the lower tax rate and share count. Our fixed currency acquisition-adjusted sales increased 2%. It was led by mid-single digit growth from our Global Institutional, Industrial and Other segments, which more than offset lower Global Energy sales. Latin America and Middle East Africa led the regional increase with good growth in Asia-Pacific, while Europe showed continued modest gains. Adjusted fixed currency operating income grew 8%, and we expanded those margins by 80 basis points. We also continue to make key investments in the drivers for our future growth. We remain on plan to achieve our Nalco and Champion synergy targets, and our Europe margins are on track for further strong expansion again this year. In addition, we continued to execute on our $1 billion share repurchase, and re-acquired 3.3 million shares in the second quarter. Looking ahead, Energy markets and some regional economies continue to present challenges and the headwinds from currency exchange remains formidable. However, we're also realizing raw material cost savings that should significantly improve versus the first half. Along with synergies and cost efficiencies, lead to further margin expansion and yield improved earnings per share gains over the balance of 2015. In this mixed environment, we are driving new business gains and lower costs as we maximize the benefits and minimize the challenges in 2015. We will once again use our product innovation and service strengths to help customers achieve better results and lower operating costs, and through these drive new account gains across all of our segments. We expect the third quarter 2015 results to show further solid fixed currency sales growth and margin improvement from our Global Institutional, Industrial and Other segments, as they more than offset lower Energy segment results in a tough comparison for Energy. Third quarter adjusted earnings per share are expected to increase 2% to 8%, to the $1.24 to $1.31 range, as the unfavorable currency and pension impact increases to approximately $0.11 per share in the quarter. Our full year 2015 forecast remains centered in the $4.45 to $4.60 per share range, up 6% to 10%. In summary, we believe our second quarter performed very well despite very challenging conditions. We continue to expect 2015 to reflect Ecolab's balanced business portfolio and show strong operating performance for the company, more than offsetting the challenges in Global Energy and the drag on earnings per share from currencies and pension. We remain confident in our business, our markets and our people as well as our capacities to meet our aggressive growth objectives over the coming years while also delivering attractive returns in 2015. Now here is Doug Baker with some comments.
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Thank you, Mike, and good day, everybody. So it's going to be a familiar theme. I would say the year continues to progress as we expected and we talked about during the last call. So we really have strong mid-teens underlying EPS performance when you look through FX. It's being driven by strong Institutional, Industrial and Services. We're delivering strong mid-single digit fixed FX organic sales growth. When you couple that with the raw material savings, as a result of the lower oil price, this results in very strong earnings in these segments. This is offsetting much of the weaker Energy Service demand impact that we're also simultaneously seeing, so net the story, there really – the oil is counteracted, if you will, the Energy demand destruction is counteracted by raw material savings, net not really the main deal is exactly what's happening in our business. So FX is the principal optic story this year. It will pass. We don't know when, but ultimately it will. I would say if you look underneath importantly the metrics are very solid for our business. We continue to gain shares; we had another record quarter of new corporate account business gains across the board. We continue to have excellent results from new innovation; both innovation launched last year and this year. We continue to deliver against our savings plans, our synergy plans and our raw material capture targets; our cash flow is good and improving. And I would also point out that our M&A pipeline looks very good and is quite robust. So net, the story for the full year remains the same. We expect Institutional, Industrial and Other segments to continue to perform quite well as they continue to drive mid-single digit fixed currency sales growth, and they continue to have strong margin performance via input cost savings as a consequence of lower oil. Energy we expect to be off on the top line for the year about 3% to 5% and have a flattish OI result year-on-year. So our full-year range remains 6% to 10% EPS growth, adjusted EPS growth, with about a 7% FX impact forecasted. Sitting today, we would expect to be in the middle of our forecasted annual EPS range. So the underlying assumptions in this forecast are the following
Michael J. Monahan - Ecolab, Inc.:
Thanks, Doug. A final note before we start Q&A. We plan to hold our 2015 Investor Day in St. Paul on September 10. If you have any questions, please contact my office. Please note, we have limited space and that we need your RSVP by August 20. That concludes our formal remarks. Operator, would you please begin the question-and-answer period?
Operator:
Thank you. So we'll now open the question-and-answer session for today's call. We ask that you limit yourself to one question and a brief related follow-up question per caller so that others will have a chance to participate. Now let's just give a few seconds for our questions to queue up. And our first question will be coming from the line of Mr. Nate Brochmann. Sir, your line is open.
Nate J. Brochmann - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Hi. Good afternoon, gentlemen. Hey, Doug, I wanted to talk a little bit in terms of obviously the Energy business. It seems that you have a really great handle on where that's at right now. And it kind of feels based on just what other industry participants are saying that we might be kind of getting to the bottom in the third quarter. One, just wanted to see if you were feeling that way; and two, whether there was anything relative to the start of the second quarter in terms of managing the business any differently in terms of accelerating any additional cost saving plans beyond just the synergies that were remaining or are still left in the pipeline from the deal, and then just how you're thinking about that going forward?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, so I would say, I mean, we're all looking, I think, at the same rig count data. And certainly the rig count decline has stabilized. And I think it's predicted to remain sort of at this level for a while. And so that's our assumption. We don't have forecasted any dramatic increase in rig count going forward. And we believe that oil's gonna stay in this range of plus minus $5.00 through 2016. And I would also say that's not really a change in our view, either, as we go on. So we see the Q3 versus Q2, quite similar. Q3 will be very modestly higher than Q2 but it's very modest. And really when we see any kind of uptick as Q4, and as I mentioned in my earlier remarks, it's really driven by two factors
Nate J. Brochmann - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Okay, makes sense. And then just on the follow-up, you talked about getting a couple new business wins which obvious they were part of the Ecolab story via the innovation. Were there any really big wins there in the quarter? Obviously Food & Beverage seemed to have a very nice quarter, was wondering if anything flew through there that was kind of a one-time big thing or whether that's just normal blocking and tackling?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, no. I would say it's fairly broad-based. I mean there are a number of very good wins. I would say it's kind of in our typical range of what we do. I would say in total, we're up modestly year-on-year, in last year as you recall, we were up 45%. So that's a great accomplishment and it's also in the face of frankly Energy doing very well on new business but not quite as well as last year which you would expect. Because you don't have the same CapEx deployment but Energy still is doing very well in generating new business. They are clearly gaining share. I think that's really one of the highlights. It's one of the leading indicators I've always paid most attention to in almost all of our businesses because it's probably the best forecaster for continued organic sales growth strength.
Nate J. Brochmann - William Blair & Co. LLC:
Great. I appreciate that. Thanks, Doug.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question will be coming from the line of Mr. David Begleiter from Deutsche Bank. Sir, your line is now open.
David I. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Doug, just on your full year guidance, you maintain a pretty wide range of $0.15 for the back half of the year, what would need to happen for that lower end of the full year guidance to be hit, that $4.45 area?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, I would say two things. David, we really left guidance alone because we don't see any real change in our outlook for the year and we thought the best way to communicate that was not changing our forward guidance. It is wider than we might normally have at this time of the year. And I would say it's a year that – it's a world that's still fairly dynamic, currency swings. I don't believe they're in the future but then again I'm probably a lousy forecaster of currency swings based on past performance. So I don't know exactly what to expect. I would say that singularly would be the biggest possible impact on moving off the middle of the range either up or down, would be FX, because it affects you the day it happens. Raw materials, we're getting late in the year. They're becoming, frankly, less likely to impact the year dramatically simply because they got to work through inventory on most of the world outside of the U.S. so it just takes a long time for changes there to flow through and hit the P&L at this point in time. And then of course, as I mentioned, we expect an uptick on Energy in the fourth quarter. We think we've got a good handle on that. The majority of it I think we feel is quite secure. But that could slip into the first quarter, pieces of it, and that might have an impact. We don't consider that likely or we wouldn't have kept the forecast, but that's possible.
David I. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
And, Doug, just on Energy again for next year, I know it's very early, but if we stay in the current crude range, how do you think about top line growth for Energy next year in this current energy price environment?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Our view of next year's Energy market hasn't really changed for a while. I guess we've always foreseen that it's going to stay in this range through 2016. And so our view of how Energy's going to perform next year really hasn't changed. We still see it in mid-single digit growth range next year. It's obviously going to get stronger as the year goes on simply because the first quarter will be the hardest comparison year-on-year and obviously we're more at the ongoing run rate now. But as you annualize through the rig count decline and the modest price pressure that we've had and you continue to gain share as we're doing, we know that with a stable ground we will start showing positive sales growth and we're, at this point, quite confident in that.
David I. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question will be coming from Mr. Gary Bisbee from RBC Capital Markets. Sir, your line is now open
Gary E. Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Hey, guys. I guess – could I – to follow that last question up, Doug, what do you think are the major puts and takes that we should be thinking about at this point, thinking about 2016? So you just covered Energy, but it seems like the level of synergies from the big acquisitions is likely to be less. What are the other major things we should think about that will impact the pace of growth next? Thanks.
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, Gary, of course, one, we're not in the forecast mode for 2016 but I guess as you play it forward obviously I don't know what the FX world's going to be and the pension world. It would be hard to imagine both working against you next year simply because pensions are going to be interest rate sensitive. Highest interest rates mean lower pension costs and higher interest rates probably mean maybe higher FX. Who knows? We'll see what's built in once the Fed actually makes a move. So it's hard to see them both moving against us. So I would say our guess is that that environment's going to be more favorable, not less favorable, next year as we move into it. But as we look at the momentum that we have broadly in our businesses, we would expect Institutional and Industrial and Other services to continue to perform well. We're doing great in new business, productivity, we continue to add talent; we continue to do the things. We still have lots of cost savings. Europe, as we said, is 100 points a year for the foreseeable future, that's 20 points total, and we would expect to be at least in the 50 basis points to 75 basis points type OI margin leverage next year with what's on our docket, and have better sales growth. And then obviously the business that's going to probably see the most significant change year-on-year would be Energy. And this year we're talking about it being down 3% to 4% and next year we would expect it to be positive in the mid-single digits. So I think when you add that together we feel like we will be in good position. Wild cards are what do we do on M&A and then obviously economy FX and some of the other stuff.
Gary E. Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Great. And then the follow-up, what has the lag been from Energy falling off to when you really see the raw material prices resetting as you update those contracts, and is it reasonable to think that raws may stay – the benefit may last into a period where Energy is improving? Or has it really been pretty similar as we think about the pace of the last six months, nine months? Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, broadly I guess our view next year is that oil is going to stay in the same range it is now, so we wouldn't expect huge raw material inflation next year based on that. And I think if we're right on Energy we'll be right on the raw material view. In terms of how they move, there may be a lag of a quarter or two at most, but typically they move fairly in concert. It just takes a while for some of these things to run through your P&L at times. We also have contracts which may push off raw material increases forward a couple of quarters as well.
Gary E. Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question will be coming from David Ridley-Lane from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Sir, your line is now open.
David E. Ridley-Lane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Sure. So when you talk about flattish operating income in Energy for the full year, will that potentially contemplate a year-over-year margin improvement in the fourth quarter as this cost savings hit the full run rate?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, I mean, I guess for the year if your sales are down and your OI's flat, we would expect to have pretty modest margin improvement as a consequence of that. And, certainly, it's going to be driven by first quarter, fourth quarter offsetting second and third quarter.
David E. Ridley-Lane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Okay. Got it. And then within the legacy Europe business, could you just give a quick update on the revenue growth and year-to-date progress on the hundred basis points of margin improvement target?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, I'd say in Europe we're doing well. We had 5% growth in the first quarter. We tried to tell everybody not to expect that for the balance of the year, and I guess we proved ourselves right in the second quarter. We were up about 2% in the second quarter, but we expect still to be 3% to 4% growth for the year. And I would also say we are quite comfortable that we'll be +100 basis points on OI leverage as well for the year. I think all businesses, except Energy, are forecasting a better second half in Europe than first half, and I think based on new business performance and other measures that they've taken that it all adds up to us.
David E. Ridley-Lane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
If I could just sneak one more in. Did you quantify the growth in new business bookings in this quarter?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
No. I don't think we've given a number. We'll give the number out here in a little bit in the broadcast.
David E. Ridley-Lane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
All right. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question will be coming from John Quealy from Canaccord Genuity. Sir, your line is now open.
John Quealy - Canaccord Genuity, Inc.:
Good afternoon. First question on Food & Beverage and Institutional, both the best organic growers, can you comment volume versus mix for both of those in a little bit more detail if you could?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, I mean I would say broadly our pricing in all segments in 2015 including year-to-date is very consistent with what we saw last year in 2014. So think 1% pricing roughly, and so in Institutional where we've had like 6% year-to-date roughly, it's going to be 5% and 1%. F&B, also had some acquisition help, they're at about the same camp organically and it's going to be similarly 5% and 1%.
John Quealy - Canaccord Genuity, Inc.:
Okay. Thanks. And then as a follow-up just in terms of summarizing Energy, would you consider the Q4 sounds like there's some goodness coming back to the business in Q4. Would you characterize that more upstream versus maybe downstream? Thank you. Doug.
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
It's pretty much across the board in the Energy business. So we'll see improvement certainly in downstream, but also in the upstream businesses. Now I want to – catch this. Energy's not going to be back at its expected run rate in the third quarter. This is what I would just call modest improvement, it's what we have forecasted, via if you really will, second and third quarter. So some is seasonality, but the improvement we're forecasting is a little better than you would normally see on seasonality, and really we're talking sequential improvement here.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question will be coming from Manav Patnaik from Barclays. Sir, your line is now open.
Manav S. Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Good afternoon, guys. The one question I want to talk about, I think you mentioned in your concluding remarks but none of this includes M&A. So I just wanted to get an updated view how you are seeing the M&A market? I think early on in the year you talked about valuations not catching up to reality yet. So just curious what your pipeline looks like and what we should expect?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, well, we closed obviously on one transaction in China in a Water business. So that business since it's closed is included in our forecast. And as I mentioned in my earlier remarks, unannounced M&A, which generally means we haven't closed, or haven't closed on it, is not included in here. I guess the best I can say, and I'll give you reason for this, is I feel like we really have got a very good M&A pipeline. I think it's highly likely to bear fruit and start helping us build momentum. With that said, we've got a lot of experience in M&A, and I do personally, and I never really count this stuff until it's closed, because you're always shocked at the ability or the capability for 11th hour surprises. And so I really don't want to forecast. I guess the good news, I think, take our forecast right now as it is. M&A, when it comes, we will make clear what the expected impact on the year will be at the time that we announce any M&A, if we do. And right now, while we like the pipeline, they just aren't closed. And I expect they will, a number will, but it's an impossible thing to predict. So we're telling you not to count on it until it's done.
Manav S. Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Okay. That's fair enough. And then if I could just get an update. Maybe there's not being a material change, but just on the Healthcare division, you guys were making some changes trying to get that going. Anything to talk about over the last quarter?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
No. I think Healthcare's continuing to perform as we expected this year. It's going to have some quarter anomalies up and down, but for the year we still expect mid-single digit growth from that business. I think they're doing the things that we expect and want them to do. They've done a great job, I think, recasting our program and benefit to acute care. We're getting traction. We're talking to hospitals about things they've not really been talked to before in ways they haven't been talk to before. We're nice, but we are going right after, we think, a very important issue. We're having good reception. We've had some significant sales, i.e., that's why sales have started moving in the right direction. And we expect this to continue to improve, but it's not going to be an overnight sensation. We expect mid-single digits, and we would hope that we would grow faster next year.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question will be coming from Shlomo Rosenbaum from Stifel. Your line is now open.
Shlomo H. Rosenbaum - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Hi. Thank you very much for taking my questions. Hey, Doug, I want to change tact a little bit from Energy. But outside Energy, you were expecting that all the units are going to continue to improve through the year. Sitting halfway through the year, do you still expect that? And in general, do you expect all the units will continue to improve year-on-year outside of Energy as we exit the year? In other words, how do you see the momentum in the other businesses going?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, I guess a quick rundown, I'll start with Institutional. Institutional had a strong first half, and we expect them to have an equally strong second half. They're growing 6% in the first half. We expect them to grow 6% in the second half. And that's both global and, that's both U.S. and outside the U.S., crudely. In terms of F&B, that business is, we believe, is going to get stronger as the year progresses. So 5%, 6% is going to turn into 6%, 7% organic, first half to second half. Water, we expect a stronger second half really driven by Light, which we think will be in the 6% to 7% growth range, and Heavy probably around 4% as it's still somewhat dragged down by a sluggish industrial environment. Those are the big businesses. Paper is going to do fine. Other segments, Kay, QSR or FRS, I mean QSR had kind of a blowout second quarter which a lot of it's just timing. We don't expect it to go 14% as our terminal value, but's going to have a very strong year in total.
Shlomo H. Rosenbaum - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay. And then just the press release when it talks about getting to the guidance mentioned or discussed some variable compensation, a lower tax rate that wasn't part of the commentary last quarter, from an operational standpoint, do you feel like you're in the same position as you were say a quarter ago to achieve the results? Or am I just reading too much into the commentary there?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
You mean the commentary around variable compensation? The variable compensation, we usually, the only time we, the first time we ever adjust variable compensation is typically in the second quarter. First quarter, it's just, we think, too early to be adjusting the comp. So that's a past practice that I think probably 19 years out of 20 years or nine years out of 10 years is what we follow. There may be extreme years, like 2008 or 2009, where we would change that practice. So the second quarter is just a reflection of that's when we change it. The only thing that got adjusted was a piece of the corporate payout. It really had nothing to do with division payouts which weren't significant and I would just the – we're talking about 10% of the annual bonus being affected. It's not big, big news. And I'd say that's how we've always been structured, meaning we've got a piece of variable comp. We pay well for really good results and we don't pay much for medium results and this year, FX is stronger than we expected. I mean that's the news and we're going to be in mid-single digits, that's not our performance level. And everybody here, not anybody's fault but it doesn't really matter. This is how we roll. So I would say I wouldn't read anything into it. I think that's exactly how this business's performed over the years up and down and we only call that out because it was probably a penny over maybe a normal mover so it's not a huge move.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question will be coming from Andy Wittmann from Baird. Sir, your line is now open.
Andrew J. Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Hey, Doug. You've talked in the past about how after several years now of synergies and cost outs from the acquisition you're going to be doing some of the same. You're just not calling them that anymore but you mentioned the 50 basis points to 75 basis points of margin improvement that you think is possible. How much of that is from discrete identifiable actions versus what you'd call normal operating leverage from growth in the business?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, certainly, we count on continued volume growth when we give out that equation so certainly I would say that sort of favorable gravity if you have volume growth going your direction, you're going to have the benefit of some OI leverage as a consequence as long as you keep costs under control, et cetera. So certainly there's a piece of that but then, yeah, there are other discrete actions, that's not going to get you to 50 basis points to 75 basis points. Maybe that'll get you to 25 basis points. We've got Europe which is 20 basis points which is more discrete actions than anything else. Certainly not undone by volume going forward and then there are a number of other areas. I think we've talked in the past that when you do these deals you go after purchasing synergies right away, duplicative G&A right away. The harder things and the things that take more time because typically they're system enabled are, one, things around product supply and you got to be pretty thoughtful. And so we still believe there's room over time in product supply to keep doing this. We've ended up with a large number of plants and we are also always quite cautious in driving synergies before we completely understand and can control the outcome because we don't like to risk sales growth. It's by far the largest value creator and we believe momentum is a commodity that you treat with a lot of respect and don't undo if you can help it. And so there's still plenty of things to be done. I mean if I go around the world in many countries, we still have multiple legal entities simply because we have multiple systems. We're doing the systems work over time, doing it at a pace that we can manage and control and make sure that we don't ever have any announcements about SAP integration hiccups. We've probably in the tenure that I've been here done 40 countries and we've never once mentioned SAP hiccup as a rationale for not delivering and we would expect that over the next 10 years as well. So that's how we think about it but I would just say rest assured there's plenty in our business that remains to be harvested in terms of cost savings and efficiency.
Andrew J. Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Okay. Great. Thank you. I'll leave it there.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question will be coming from Dmitry Silversteyn from Longbow Research. Your line is now open.
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC:
Good afternoon, Doug, and all of my calls (37:30) have been answered but I do want to follow up on a couple of things. First of all when you look at foreign exchange impact, Doug, can you quantify what it was in the Other segment? I know it's not as international as the others but it looks to me to be above 1% foreign exchange impact, is that correct?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Let us get back. You're right in terms of your theory. It's going to be much less than the others. I mean GCS is only – equipment repair is only in the U.S. and a large part of the Pest business is in the U.S. so we'll get back to you with that one.
Michael J. Monahan - Ecolab, Inc.:
Hey, Dmitry, if you just look at the press release, we show the public rate and the fixed rate.
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
(38:16). It'd be...
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC:
Okay. I got it. Thanks.
Michael J. Monahan - Ecolab, Inc.:
It's de minimis (38:18)
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
...looks like 1% (38:18)
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC:
That's helpful. Secondly, if you look at the margin expansion that you're delivering in the Institutional business, it's pretty impressive and actually we're seeing a little bit of a momentum build here in the second quarter versus the first quarter. Is it a function of volume growth or mix or cost removal, or is it – how much of that is raw material benefit? I'm just trying to figure out almost a step change that you're undergoing here, sort of what's behind it in terms of buckets of magnitude?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, I would say, one, we'd expect the Institutional rate to be better full year than last year certainly. But I wouldn't start drawing straight lines into the sky from Q1 to Q2 as we move forward. So the things that are driving it broadly are certainly innovation, cost savings, they're getting leverage with volume. And then you've got this pricing raws formula where we continue to, what I would say, is pick up from past raw movements that went against us, but you also have some quarter timing in here and some other stuff. So while Institutional margins I would expect to continue to improve moving forward, I don't want to oversell the change from quarter one to quarter two.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question will be coming from Mike Ritzenthaler from Piper Jaffray. Your line is now open.
Mike Ritzenthaler - Piper Jaffray & Co:
Yeah, good morning. Just a couple of follow-ups from previous questions. On the momentum behind the Global Institutional business, in particular, it seems like – and Doug, just based on your previous answer there – raw materials versus new business wins, things like that, I'm curious about the cadence of that business, of I guess Specialty, in particular, but also Institutional in 3Q and 4Q just in terms of reasonableness. You said that they're going to improve but just kind of wondering what some goalposts are for that business in 3Q and 4Q.
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, let me talk top line and then I'll talk bottom line. So top line, really broadly in that segment I would expect the second half a lot like – the Institutional business, second half a lot like first half, which was strong. I would say going beyond this year one of the great benefits that we have in the Institutional business is we have significant upside potential outside of the U.S. while we continue to drive the U.S. So I think that business has got a lot of legs and will continue to grow. In terms of the other Institutional businesses, in particular Kay and the like, they had a very, very strong second quarter. So while they're going to have a good year that business can be lumpy as they have rollouts, which pops up a quarter, they roll against them the next year, for the year they're going to be in good shape and so we feel good about that as well. And then when you look at OI growth, across I would think – that business will continue to perform. We would expect in total to have year-on-year improvement in margin as we go forward. And I would put that – like we expect for the company overall, in the hundred basis point area.
Mike Ritzenthaler - Piper Jaffray & Co:
Okay. That's super helpful. Just another follow-up on Q4 and Energy, you had mentioned cost savings and synergies, which I think you've done a great job of articulating what those should be. The new innovation driven sales, I'm wondering if there is any other detail that you can provide, maybe based on other product introductions that you've done in the past. This is certainly a challenging environment to be introducing new products but maybe just a little bit more granularity around your visibility there and maybe based on recent product introductions.
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, is this – I'm sorry. Innovation, broadly? Innovation in Energy, specifically?
Mike Ritzenthaler - Piper Jaffray & Co:
In Energy specifically. You called out cost savings and then innovation as kind of the two drivers for Q4.
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, we're not going to get into a bunch of specifics, but I would say we feel really good coming into the year about our innovation pipeline for Energy. There was a bunch of technologies that we've been working on. We're trying to do what many other people are doing, which is one, reduce the amount of water it takes to either do floods or fracs, make sure that the efficacy of those floods and fracs are more efficacious than they were before, i.e. produce more. There were a number of technologies that we were working on to do that based on learnings that we had. We have launched these technologies, they've had successful field trials. We've now secured business and are in the process of rolling some out. And while I would agree with you, I would say downturns, you don't have the same volume leverage or opportunity near-term when you're rolling out innovation in downturns. But often, you've got more openness to looking at how technology can change economic outcomes when customers are in pressured situations. So while adoption in Energy generally is relatively slow, I might argue that this can accelerate some adoptions simply because people are looking for new ways to do things to enhance the economics of the industry overall. So, I think best is going into (44:26) energy specific, but we've had a number of very strong uptakes here. And so, as I mentioned earlier, I think what we're talking about sequentially from Q3 to Q4, the planned uptick. We feel very certain about the money coming in, so it's not really an if, it's always a win. And I would say we feel quite certain about the majority of it, but you're never completely certain about all of it. And I'm really not trying to send any big news here; this is true in every one of our businesses by the way. But I'd say based on the pipeline and what we see, what we've done in terms of securing the business, the CapEx that is being deployed that was frankly undertaken several years ago. I think we've really got a handle on what's going on in that business and we do believe that after second and third quarter we'll start see improvement moving forward.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question will be coming from John Roberts from UBS. Sir, your line is now open.
John E. Roberts - UBS Securities LLC:
Good afternoon. Maybe I missed it, but in the discussion on Food & Beverage you're talking about offset market headwinds in North America and Europe where lower volumes have continued to impact sales. I can see individual customers going up and down and so forth, but I would've thought the Food & Beverage market is relatively stable overall?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, certainly food consumption is relatively stable overall and obviously you've got changes in what people buy, but you've had a lot of consolidation in both Europe and North America as Food plants are consolidated, like taken off-line. So when we talk about the Food & Beverage market, we're talking about our market i.e. selling hygiene and food safety solutions into those markets. We've been through this before, so it's not new news. I'd say in spite of that, organically the Food & Beverage business globally had 5% growth and we're looking for organic growth to pick up to the 6% to 7% range in second half. So we're not trying to call out that there's any major concern here, it's just something that we've got to continue to fight through.
John E. Roberts - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay, and then in the M&A area, not in your business particularly, but there's an awful lot of transatlantic deal activity underway given foreign exchange rates and cheap interest rates in Europe. Is your M&A pipeline tilted at all to take advantage of that?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, I would say our M&A pipeline reflects the global business that we are. So there are opportunities in a number of our businesses and a number of them are outside of the U.S.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question will be coming from Mike Harrison from Global Hunter Securities. Sir, your line is now open.
Michael J. Harrison - Global Hunter Securities LLC:
Hi, good afternoon. Doug, I was wondering if you could talk in a little more detail about the outlook on your Industrial business and specifically any concerns that are slowing in China, or demand reset out of China could impact your Paper or Water business.
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, I guess you know. Here's our China business. Our experience in China was that the real slowdown began a year ago. As we talked last year in the third and fourth quarter, our businesses exposed to the Industrial side of China flowed in the second half of last year. So in many ways we're going to start lapping an easier base starting in this quarter, third quarter. So, China, I think when you look at the business, let's take the first half this year. We had continued pressure in the Industrial exposed segments
Michael J. Harrison - Global Hunter Securities LLC:
All right. And if I look at the Energy business and the talk there is about deferrals or delays in some of the big offshore and oilsands CapEx, you mentioned your outlook for 2016 looks like mid-single digit growth. But can we get back to the 6% to 8% plus top line growth without that big CapEx, or does it look more like a mid-single digit grower as you look out to 2020?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, I'd say certainly by 2020 we would anticipate we'll be back in high single digit, low double-digit range because our belief is that there will be a correction in that business by 2020. Now what year is it? I guess we've said it's not 2015 and not 2016, so at least the range is narrowing. I would say a couple of things. Yeah, this is what happens, right? Right now this is oversupply. Demand hasn't really been – there's not been demand destruction. It's been oversupply. And so people aren't funding new CapEx because new supply isn't warranted. This ultimately will lead to a reduction in supply because old wells come off and they're not being replaced at the same rate with new wells and this will trigger a price change which will ultimately trigger more CapEx. And I would say our business is principally production phase, which is why it doesn't move in such wild gyrations. But with that said, yeah, ultimately if you told me there's going to be no new CapEx in this business for 20 years I would say ultimately that's going to hurt production. But that just doesn't make any sense given other beliefs. And so I think what you'll see is a natural evolution of things in this market. We don't see 2016 being materially different than 2015. Our results will be different simply because we're lapping a different base and the base is fairly solid, so the new business that we are gaining will start showing up in the results, i.e. when you compare it to 2015. So I think we're pretty confident about how we're viewing this market. But yeah, the Energy business is still a really attractive business and we think we'll be back to the type of results that we saw before.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question will be coming from the line of Rosemarie Morbelli from Gabelli and Company. Ma'am, your line is open.
Rosemarie J. Morbelli - Gabelli & Company:
Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. Doug, I was wondering if you could give us a little more detail on Jianghai? You have given us $90 million in revenues but nothing else. Can you share their profitability? Can you share some of their product lines? And are they the reason for the higher other minority interest, since you have a majority ownership but don't own the full thing?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
No, we didn't own Jianghai long enough in the first half or second quarter to have any impact at all there. So no, it had nothing – NCI (53:04) is principally Energy and it's the money that goes to your JV partners, where we have them. And that's basically the reconciling column for joint ventures. Jianghai is principally focused in heavy categories. It's got very good margins. They run a very good business. They run a model not very dissimilar from the model that we run around the world in our Water business. All of these reasons were the reasons why we are attracted to the business. We bring over additional what I would call management competency and know-how into our business. And so our really plan with this business is, one, like we do with most. First rule is do no harm but we are going to operate the business but with current management as we watch and learn and figure out what we can also apply broadly to our Other business. This increases our footprint. I think at an attractive time because as I mentioned earlier, a lot of the Industrial slowdown, at least the part that we're exposed to, really started a year ago. So we're a ways through this in terms of what China has got to do to I think kind of right side, its supply side.
Rosemarie J. Morbelli - Gabelli & Company:
What kind of growth rate can we expect? I mean there is obviously a lot of water treatment necessary whether it is for waste or growing industries in China. So what kind of a growth rate can we expect from that particular business going forward?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
I would say our expectation in that business is for the next few years it's going to be in upper single digits and then as you get what I would call sort of China getting more in balance in terms of capacity in some of the heavy industrials, I think that business will start taking off faster from there.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question will be coming from P.J. Juvekar from Citi. Your line is now open.
P.J. Juvekar - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Doug, your QSR was up 11%. I know you said it's lumpy but still nice growth. Are you positioned with the right customers within QSR that allow you to show solid growth? Can you just talk about your split of your customer base?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, I think the best way to think about QSR is, it's two worlds. You've got continued expansion outside of the U.S. Principally, growth there is going to be as we grow with our customers as they expand and we continue to gain new customers. So kind of a traditional story. If you look in the U.S. which is a huge piece of that business, both the market and frankly our business, we think we're positioned with the right ones. Our customers, I mean, that industry is going to go through a lot of change and a lot of it's externally driven. So certainly it's customer preference, which they're all going to react to. I will say all these customers have been written off in the past and they all have been very good and I believe will be going forward into figuring out what the right formula is to appeal to that day's clientele. But the second internal impact affecting them is the one that probably is more germane to us and that is increased labor costs, the pressure broadly on raising minimum wages and then the $15 mandate that you're starting to see in some cities coupled with ACA, and there is going to be, I mean, they're not going to have any choice. A lot of the owner operators and franchisees are going to have to take out labor. If labor's going to go up that dramatically, their profit margins aren't such where they can pay those labor rates and so they're going to reduce labor, how are they going to do it? They're going to put in labor-saving technology. So certainly some of the front of the house stuff, whether it be order boards and the like aren't going to have a big impact on us but in the back of the house, dish machines are going to become much more prevalent, we believe in that industry over time. We're starting to see it now because they want to take the labor required to wash dishes manually and displace it with mechanized warewashing. There are other machines, i.e., floor scrubbers and the like which we believe are going to be much more prevalent going forward than you saw in the past because the math equations just frankly change in terms of does it make sense to invest in that capital or in that expense going forward. And that I think we're in great position to help them manage through that change and that's how we're working with it. What specific needs do they have? How do we customize the equipment to work with that need? How do we get the economic formula to work for them in the way that they need it to work given the environment they're in? I mean we're doing all these things, which is what you do as you partner with customers over time and I think a big part of the solution is going to be from us.
P.J. Juvekar - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Thank you for that. And then looking at Water, 3D TRASAR seems to be doing well in the hotel, healthcare and universities. How much of your Water growth is driven by 3D TRASAR and equipment sales?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
I don't know that I got the exact percent of what the absolute growth is. I mean, 3D TRASAR was one of the jewels, we got many of them, in the Nalco acquisition. And you're right. I mean, we are deploying this technology broadly. We're working, if you will, to de-cost it so that we can use it in Institutional applications. Also, it's not a specific product, as you well know, but it's a program that includes control systems and products that specifically run through it, because you need specific products to be measured by the 3D controller. So it's really an enabler for us to go drive growth going forward. So I guess it's central and important, but I don't have a specific like what percent of the sales growth comes from 3D.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question will be coming from Bob Koort from Goldman Sachs. Sir, your line is now open.
Robert A. Koort - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thanks very much. I guess I need to work on my queuing skills, because I've lost the hour, and all my questions have been asked. But I would like to applaud Mike and the team for putting out a much more helpful Quarterly Report. We really appreciate that. Thanks.
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Well, I'll let Mike say thanks back.
Michael J. Monahan - Ecolab, Inc.:
Thank you, Bob. Appreciate it.
Robert A. Koort - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
You bet.
Operator:
Thank you. And our last question will be coming from Scott Schneeberger from Oppenheimer. Sir, your line is now open.
Scott A. Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Thanks. I appreciate you guys getting me in at the end. Just a couple quick ones. Within Energy, do you mind breaking out what well stimulation growth is versus production and downstream? I ask this in light of you mentioning that there's some new business bookings and wins. I'm just curious where those are contributing and what the overall of the net down this year 3%, 4%, 5% is going to be?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
Yeah, I mean, the real whole volume degradation is the majority of it is occurring in WellChem, which is down like 30% in the quarter, which is about where we thought we would end up, maybe a month or two earlier than when we started the year. So that's where the volume is. The other businesses are growing. Outside the U.S. in total, the business is growing mid-teens. So the Energy market, the real pressure is specifically in the U.S. market, and specifically around where you had a lot of drilling activity previously, which has just come to a halt. And so it's very specific the pace (1:01:29). And we're seeing it, Whitney's (1:01:30) seeing it, I think managing through it quite well.
Scott A. Schneeberger - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker):
Thanks. And just my other one real quick. You've kind of covered this already, Doug, when you touched on Industrial in China. But in North America, there's some concern that the economy's slowing, the industrial economy's slowing. It sounds like you're still pretty confident for the back half. But just curious if you could go a level deeper into some of the subsectors. Are there any signs of weakness you're seeing because it sounds you're pretty confident otherwise?
Douglas M. Baker - Ecolab, Inc.:
I'm a little bit, I've got to say that I never saw the huge signs of strength. I don't think the second half is going to be materially different, at least from our vantage point than the first half in the U.S. And, there's been industrial pressure in the U.S. for the last year. So, it hadn't been as severe as China. But broadly, we felt some pressure in our heavy water business, which has been steel. Obviously, overcapacity in China begets challenges around the world in steel. And so steel's been under pressure everywhere. Mining's been under pressure everywhere. And I think we'll continue to see those. I think that's really the experience. So why are we confident? Because I think it's basically in our business, and what we see is right now share gains taking hold because I think we've seen kind of the leveling of the Industrial production, at least the part we're exposed to in the U.S., and we feel like the share gain that we've made is going to start taking root. And we don't have any monster forecast in the second half like huge improvement planned.
Operator:
Thank you. And that does it for our question-and-answer. And now I'll turn the call back over to Mr. Monahan for closing comments.
Michael J. Monahan - Ecolab, Inc.:
That wraps it up for our second quarter conference call. This call, the associated slides and discussion will be available for replay on our website. So thanks for your time today and your participation. Our best wishes for the rest of the day.
Operator:
And that concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Michael Monahan - SVP, External Relations Doug Baker - CEO
Analysts:
Mike Ritzenthaler - Piper Jaffray Nate Brochmann - William Blair Gary Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets David Begleiter - Deutsche Bank David Ridley - Lane with Banc of America Manav Patnaik - Barclays Capital Laurence Alexander - Jefferies John Quealy - Canaccord Genuity Mike Harrison - Global Hunter Securities John McNulty - Credit Suisse John Roberts - UBS Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research Bob Koort - Goldman Sachs Shlomo Rosenbaum - Stifel Rosemarie Morbelli - Gabelli & Co Andy Wittmann - Baird Scott Schneeberger - Oppenheimer
Operator:
Welcome to the Ecolab First Quarter 2015 Earnings Release Conference Call. At this time all participants are in a listen only mode. After the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] This call is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. Now I’d like to turn over the call to Mr. Michael Monahan, Senior Vice President, External Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Michael Monahan:
Thank you. Hello everyone and welcome to Ecolab’s First Quarter Conference Call. With me today is Doug Baker, Ecolab’s Chairman and CEO. A copy of our earnings release and the accompanying slides are referenced in this teleconference are available on Ecolab’s Website at ecolab.com/investor. Please take a moment to read the cautionary statements on Slide 2, stating that this teleconference and the slides include estimates of future performance. These are forward-looking statements, and actual results could differ materially from those projected. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are described in the section of our most recent Form 10-K under Item 1A, Risk Factors, in our first quarter earnings release and on Slide 2. We also refer you to the supplemental diluted earnings per share information in the release. Starting with an overview on Slide 3, strong new account growth and new product introductions drove a solid fixed currency sales increase in the first quarter. We leveraged that growth along with pricing, delivered product cost savings and our ongoing synergy and cost efficiency work to more than offset headwinds and increase our adjusted operating margins. These along with a lower tax rate and fewer shares outstanding drove an attractive adjusted earnings per share increase. Looking ahead, we expect 2015 to be another year of superior growth despite mixed macroeconomic and market trends, as well as substantially unfavorable currency exchange and pension costs. We’re seeing better sales growth in our institutional, other and industrial segments primarily resulting from internal work we’ve undertaken to improve our effectiveness. In addition North America restaurant trends are showing gradual improvement. Lower oil prices have yielded lower delivered product costs, while also slowing our energy segment. Net we continue to look for a strong profit growth in the mid to high-teens before currency and pension effects. The dollar has strengthened since the last call and we now expect currency exchange will be an unfavorable $0.30 per share. With pension and unfavorable $0.09 per share, currency and pension will represent a combined unfavorable impact of nearly $0.40 per share in 2015 or $0.09 or our EPS and 10 percentage points of EPS growth. We’ve adjusted our 2015 forecast to reflect the increased headwind from currency exchange in energy markets and now look for 6% to 10% EPS growth for the full year to the 4.45 per share to 4.60 per share range as continued good fixed currency sales growth, appropriate pricing, delivered product cost savings, innovation and synergies more than offset 2015’s increased challenges. We expect to show 2% to 8% adjusted earnings gain in the second quarter as currency alone represents an estimated $0.08 per share which is $0.04 more than the first quarter impact. Moving to some highlights from the first quarter and as discussed on our press release, reported first quarter earnings per share were $0.77. On an adjusted basis excluding special gains and charges and discreet tax items from both years, first quarter 2015 earnings per share increased 8% to a record $0.80 despite a $0.06 headwind from the currencies and pension. The adjusted earnings per share growth was driven by volume, appropriate pricing, synergies, new products and the lower tax rate and share count. Our fixed currency acquisition adjusted sales growth was solid rising 4% and was led by our global institutional, other and industrial segments as each improved over its fourth quarter and 2014 growth rates. Latin America and Middle-East led the regional growth, while Europe growth also improved. Adjusted fixed currency operating income grew 7% and we expanded our operating margins by 30 basis points. We also continue to make key investments in the drivers for our future growth. We remain on plan to achieve our Nalco and Champion synergy targets and our Europe margins are on track for further strong expansion this year. In addition, we’re underway with our $1 billion share repurchase and bought nearly 3 million shares in the first quarter. Looking ahead, energy markets and some regional economies will present challenges in 2015 and the headwinds from currency exchange have only increased since we reported the last quarter. However, we also expect favorable tailwinds from lower oil cost to benefit our more consumer facing customers and we are realizing raw material savings that should improve in subsequent quarters. In this mixed environment, we will drive new business gains and lower costs as we maximize the benefits and minimize the challenges in 2015. We will once again use our product innovation and service strengths to help customers get better results and lower operating cost and through these drive new account gains across all of our segments. We expect the second quarter 2015 to show further solid fixed currency sales growth and margin improvement from our institutional, other and industrial segments as they more than offset lower energy results. Second quarter adjusted EPS is expected to increase 2% to 8% to the $1.05 to $1.11 range as the unfavorable currency impact increases by approximately $0.04 in the quarter and we compare against last year’s very strong second quarter when adjusted EPS grew 20% and was $1.03 per share. We look for the second half to show better gains as our institution, industrial and other segment sales continue to lead top-line growth. Delivered product cost savings should nearly double versus the first half and along with synergies and cost efficiencies lead to further margin expansion and yield the better EPS gains. We adjusted our forecast for the full year 2015 to reflect the increased headwinds from currency exchange in energy markets. We now look for 6% to 10% EPS growth to the 4.45 per share to 4.60 per share range with that wider than normal range reflecting the dynamic currency and commodity markets. In summary, we believe our first quarter performed very well despite very challenging conditions. We continue to expect 2015 to show strong operating performance for the company, despite the challenges in energy and to more than offset the increased drag on EPS growth from currencies and pension. We remain confident in our business, our markets and our people as well as our capacities to meet our aggressive growth objectives over the coming years, while also delivering attractive returns in 2015. Slide 4 shows our first quarter results both as reported and with adjustments for special gains and charges, while Slide 5 shows our sales growth detail. Ecolab’s consolidated fixed currency sales for the first quarter increased 4%. Acquisition adjusted fixed currency sales also rose 4%. Looking at the growth components, volume and mix increased 3% and pricing rose 1%. Currency was a negative 5% and acquisitions and divestitures were not significant. Reported fixed currency sales for the global industrial segment rose 5%. Adjusted for acquisitions and divestitures, sales increased 3%. First quarter fixed currency global food and beverage sales increased 6%. Adjusted for acquisitions, fixed currency sales grew 4%. Food and beverage growth was primarily driven by share gains and we use them to more than offset generally weak volumes. We enjoyed good growth in agri and food and beverage and modest sales gains in dairy and food. Regionally, we saw solid gains in Latin America, Middle-East Africa, Europe and Asia Pacific with modest growth in North America. Food and beverage continues to drive sales growth using its Total Plant Assurance approach to customers, in which we combine our industry-leading Cleaning & Sanitizing, Water Treatment and Pest Elimination capabilities to deliver improved food safety results, lower operating costs and better product quality assurance for our customers. This is enabled us to win business with key global customers and offset difficult conditions in our North America and Europe market, where lower volumes have to impact sales. Looking ahead, we expect improved organic sales growth in the second quarter. We look for further benefits from growth synergies, better customer penetration and new business capture, as well as leverage from our innovation pipeline, including 3D TRASAR for cleaning plate systems in food and beverage plants to more than offset continued tough industry conditions. Fixed-currency water sales grew 5%. Adjusted for acquisitions water sales grew 3%. Fixed-currency acquisition adjusted water sales excluding mining grew 4% as good gain in the power and light industries were partially offset year weak steel industry demand. Acquisition adjusted fixed-currency mining sales were flat. Regionally, we saw strong growth in Latin America and Middle East Africa, modest growth in Europe and North America and a modest decline in Asia-Pacific sales. The introduction of 3D TRASAR for hotel and other institutional cooling systems, utilizing solid chemistry and advanced dispensing is going well. We also continue to drive better penetration in our other water markets, using our innovative solutions to optimize water usage. We remain focused on building our corporate account and enterprise sales teams, delivering our growth synergies and improving product innovation to drive revenues. We expect to show improving growth through 2015 as market share gains drive our heavy and light businesses to outperform soft end-markets. First quarter fixed-currency paper sales grew 2%. Latin America recorded strong growth. Elsewhere we saw overall modest gains with slight improvement in North America and lower sales in Europe and Asia-Pacific resulting from continued low customer plan utilization and extended customer shutdowns and slowdowns. We expect paper to show to modest growth in 2015 as we drive new business and technology penetration to augment stabilizing paper market conditions. Fixed-currency sales for the Global Institutional segment rose 6%. Adjusted for divestitures sales were grew 7%. Turning to the businesses that make up the segment, fixed-currency sales growth for the Institutional business grow 6%. Adjusted for small divestiture in your sales grew strong 7%. We saw further good growth in global lodging demand, but also positive signs in North America food service foot traffic. Another regional food service foot traffic trends remain steady. Looking at our regional sales, we continue to outperform our markets. We record strong sales growth in North America, North America, Asia-Pacific and Middle East Africa. Europe also improved reporting a moderate sales gain. Sales initiatives targeting new customers along with the effective product and service programs appropriate pricing drive our results. We continue to globalize our leading technologies as we rollout our next generation laundry platform in Europe this year. Our work to standardize global competencies and initiative is going well and they’re helping to drive our sales improvements. We’re also focus on strength in our execution and delivering increase customer value with solutions that reduce their water, energy and labor costs. With the work on our business fundamentals yielding good results and with end market study to improving, we look for further solid sales growth in the second quarter and for the full year. First quarter sales for specially grew 8% in fixed currencies. Quick service sales were solid as new account, increase service coverage and additional solutions leverage generally modest industry trends to drive growth. Regionally, Europe quick service sales grew double-digits benefiting from new accounts and additional customer solutions. While Asia-Pacific also show strong gains billing on good quick service foot traffic growth North America sales rose modestly. The food retail business posted solid double-digit sales growth benefiting from international customer additions, new products and increased penetration in North America. We look for good sales growth again in the second quarter, especially works to deliver another solid performance in 2015. Fixed currency global healthcare sales increased 5%. Sales gains were driven by new account growth, better penetration and new product introductions. We continued our work to strengthen our corporate accounts approach and our integrated value proposition, as well as better focused on product portfolio. We believe we are on the right track and look for core global healthcare sales to show moderate growth in the second quarter and the full year. First quarter fixed-currency Energy segment sales rose 1%. Looking at the components our upstream business rose modestly as the decline in North America results was offset by very strong international performance. The downstream business saw a good growth also led by strong international sales and share gains in North America. First quarter results reflected North American drilling and well completion activity that felled much faster than once than while we expected while production gains were steady. Downstream growth stayed solid worldwide. Looking ahead, we now expect energy segment sales for the full year 2015 to show a low single digit decline primary reflecting faster than expected reduction in North American drilling activity and customer spending reductions. We expect that second quarter and second half energy segment sales to decline in the mid single digit range as good international growth, ongoing share gains and solid downstream sales are more than offset by lower North American upstream activity and price decreases. We expect a very challenging year particularly in the North American upstream industry. We are very experienced team in place. They have remained aggressive using our industry leading product innovation and outstanding sales and service team to drive sales and share growth and they will use this period to strengthen our position. We continue to remain confident in our energy segment and its long term growth prospects. Sales for other segment increased 6%. Fixed-currency Global Pest sales increased 7% in the first quarter. Adjusted for acquisitions, fixed currency sales grew 6%. Sales to Food & Beverage customers and restaurants once again led the growth. We enjoyed sales gain in all regions. We continue to drive market penetration using innovative service offerings and technologies. We also showed further progress in globalizing our market focus capabilities and field technologies. We expect Global Pest sales to show further good growth in the second quarter led by gains in all markets. Equipment Care sales grew 7% in the first quarter. New customer additions continued at a solid rate and productivity improvements from our technology investments and strengthened execution work continue to pay off. With solid underlying business growth trends expected to continue, we look for Equipment Care to show upper single digit growth in the second quarter and expect a strong second half. Slide 6 of our presentation shows selected income statement items. First quarter gross margins were 46.5%. On adjusted for special charges first quarter 2015 gross margins were also 46.5% and rose 80 basis points above last year. The improvement resulted from volume and pricing gains, lower raw material cost, merger synergies and cost efficiencies. SG&A expenses represented 34.5% of our first quarter sales. The SG&A ratio increased 40 basis points versus last year. The increase primarily reflected the impact of higher pension expense investments in the business. Consolidated operating income margins were 11.8% adjusted for special charges fixed currency operating income margins with 12% raising 30 basis points over the last year’s comparable margins. Sales volume appropriate pricing, cost savings and efficiency improvements as well as merger synergies more than offset, higher pension cost and investments in the field sales force and the business. Fixed Currency operating income for global industry increased 5%. Acquisition adjusted operating income grew 4% and margins rose 10 basis points, pricing, volume gains, lower delivered product cost and cost efficiencies more than offset paper business exchanges. Fixed Currency operating income for Global Industrial increased 12% and margin expanded 80 basis points. Results benefited from volume gains pricing and cost efficiencies which more than offset business investments. Fixed currency global energy operating income increased 1% and margins were steady. Flattish volume, lower pricing and business investments were offset by lower delivered product cost synergies and cost savings. Fixed Currency operating income for the other segment increased 9% and margins expanded 40 basis points. improved operating results more than offset business investments and higher cost. The corporate segment and tax rates are discussed the press release. We repurchased approximately 2.9 million shares during the first quarter. The net of this performance is that Ecolab reported first quarter diluted earnings per share of $0.77 compared with $0.62 reported a year ago. When adjusted for special gains and charges and discrete tax items in both years, adjusted earnings increased 8% to $0.80 when compared with $0.74 earned a year ago. Turning to Slide 7 and looking at Ecolab’s balance sheet, net debt to total capital is 50% with net debt to adjusted EBITDA at 2.4 times. Slight increase in the net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio from year end 2014 primarily reflects the first quarter share repurchase. First quarter cash flow from operations reflects the normal seasonal pattern of our business where in we typically see low income and smaller cash flow in the first half with both of them stronger in the second half. Looking ahead, and as outlined in Slide 8 we will take aggressive actions in 2015 to drive both our top and bottom lines. We will work to leverage the benefits and offset the challenges of lower oil prices as we capture the lower raw material cost, leverage the expected consumer spending tailwind and gain share in the Energy markets. We will also continue to drive organic growth through further cooperate account wins, stepped up innovation work and improve field productivity. We still expect a very strong operating performance in 2015 showing our business balance that more than offset substantial headwinds from currency in pension. We expect our second quarter to show good Fixed Currency sales growth with currency negative impacting reported sales by about 6 percentage points. we look forward second quarter earnings to increase 2% to 8% to the $0.05 to $0.11 as currency becomes increasingly unfavorable with currency pension combining for a negative impact of $0.10 or approximately 10% of second quarter earnings growth. Further the second quarter will also compare against a very strong period last year when adjusted earnings per share rose 20% to $1.03. As mentioned earlier, we adjusted our full year outlook while we continue to expect high teens earnings growth before currency and pension. We now look for 6% to 10% EPS growth for the full year in 4.45 to 4.60 per share range as continued good fixed currency sales growth appropriate pricing delivered product cost savings, innovations in synergies more than offset the increased headwinds from currencies pension and energy. In summary, once again we delivered on our forecast in the first quarter with a solid fixed currency sales gain and continued margin improvement while offsetting market and currency challenges and investing in our future. We have our work cut out for us in 2015, but we are well positioned and well prepared to outperform once again and deliver another superior performance for shareholders this year and for the years ahead. And now here is Doug Baker with some comments.
Doug Baker:
Thanks Mike and hello to everybody. So, my headline for the quarter in the year would be our underlying business performance was very good and it’s getting better. So all segments are growing share, all segments are executing very well, we had record new business in the quarter and that follows a huge year last year, we’ve got excellent innovation programming in almost every business all segments have strengthened their teams that are doing the things they need to do built the culture. In all segments we’re accelerating from Q1 versus Q4 with the exception of energy. So, what’s new in the forecast, I guess I would point out three things. Number one; the energy markets are clearly more challenging than previously anticipated. Rigs of our declined further and faster rig counts in North America in particular, we’re not expecting energy to show a modest decrease on the top line any flat to modest increase on the bottom line for the year. Offsetting the energy news, now it’s a equally or more important is affect that the balance of our business will do better than originally forecasted. We’re capturing the raw materials saving driven by lower oil with benefiting from improved institutional markets driven by cheaper gasoline, beyond the plus side of the oil impact we’re also seeing as previously mentioned business acceleration or emerging markets were up double digits Europe top line accelerated was up 5%, 3% without energy. There is a lot of good news in our businesses around the globe. Our EPS delivery promote businesses at fixed rate remains at 15% which is exactly what our forecast was last call. The major optic impact the third if you will piece of news is really FX. And so this certainly colors a result, but I don’t believe this is a strategic issue for our business because most of our cost are incurred in the selling currency, but this does not dictate our competitiveness when we compete around the world. I also believe based on history it’s almost certainly going to reverse itself someday. We’ll probably all enjoy that. The perspective in our forecast FX is a $0.30 hit for the year or 7% that is $0.04 worse than the last call. The perspective around $0.30 this is 40 times worse than our 10 year average move, so this is truly outsize it is 3x worse than our next highest impact over the last 10 years. So I think it’s hard to wrap minds around this. We’ve been dealing with this for a while and it certainly has a big impact on how results look. The important thing is that we want to continue to focus on what we need to do to drive our business, drive value and drive returns. And as our FX forecast implies, I think the team is doing a lot of good things. At constant FX, our new forecast is 14% to 17% adjusted EPS that compares to the last forecast of 14 to 19, net we trim the top that really reflects the belief that we aren’t going to see any material improvement in our markets in time to impact this year. So we do anticipate the mid to upper-teen performance ex-FX. Clearly I think the team is doing a right stop to focus on the things to drive value and returns. They all will renew business. They all will renew innovation. We know these are the two drivers of organic sales acceleration and that’s a primary driver of improved returns. We’re doing a great job on team and talent building. We’ll continue to invest in both and we continue to make sizable investments in process and system improvements which we know are key to our long term health. So we continue to be well positioned. We continue to build market position. I feel great about our ability to delivery another strong year, while improving ability of the business to perform over the long haul. So with that, I’m going to turn it back to Mike and then we’ll go to Q&A.
Michael Monahan:
Thanks Doug. A final note before we start Q&A. We plan to hold our annual tour of our booth at the National Restaurant Association Show in Chicago on May 18th. Looking further ahead, we also plan to hold our 2015 Investor Day in Saint Paul on September 10. If you have any questions, please contact my office. That concludes our formal remarks. Operator, please begin the question and answer period.
Operator:
Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] We ask that you limit yourself to one question and a brief related follow up question per caller, so that others will have a chance to participate. First question comes from Mike Ritzenthaler with Piper Jaffray.
MikeRitzenthaler:
Doug just wanted to drill little bit more into the new business wins on the sustained good growth within institutional. Is there a way to parse out the things like new product launches and account wins versus end market health? From your prepared comments it seems like 2015 is setting up for a healthy pace of account wins after a very productive 2014.
Doug Baker:
Yes in our institutional business in the segment there are other businesses besides institutional grew 7% in the quarter and clearly I would say I think like a point of the acceleration is probably just market improvement as a consequence of lower gasoline particularly in the U.S. where it’s fully reflected because currency hasn’t eroded simultaneously. And I would say though the other acceleration and you’ve seen steady acceleration quarter by quarter for the last five plus quarters is really a consequence of continued driving – I mean continually driving new business performance. Last year I think we talked about when we looked at net new business gains when you look at on annualized contribution we were up 45% versus the prior year. I mean we glued out of the water institutional is one of the real leaders in that whole area. We’re up another 10% cumulatively in the first quarter versus last, that’s netting our losses, so we’ve really I think done a very good job there, but clearly we are gaining share. I think it’d be hard to argue that the food service and hospitality businesses are growing at 7%. So we are I think outperforming. Europe grew an institutional roughly 3% when it controlled for divestitures almost in every market we see real strength.
MikeRitzenthaler:
Okay. That’s helpful. And then on energy, if the business slow and faster than expected would that not also mean that potentially and recovery in growth to mid-single-digit growth or happen faster as well. So we can look at the potential for that business into 2016s for all obviously with the -- that we’ve got a stable energy price environment?
Doug Baker:
Yeah, I mean I guess, you would certainly argue that the first quarter basis a little easier that we have forecasted previously. So I think I would speak to, if you think oil is going to stay in the same range as it is now through ’16, which is what our assumption is. And we think energy next year recovers in this call it mid, it’s mid-single-digit growth and that’s going to be accelerating throughout the year.
Operator:
Next question comes from Nate Brochmann with William Blair.
Nate Brochmann:
Hello everyone. Just a follow-up and just a little bit more basically on the last question. In terms of the new business wins and obviously again great performance their. But you guys have always been great at going after business wins and the new product introductions et cetera and obviously Europe is doing well on that front as well. Is there any tricks or any differences in terms of what’s going to on today versus what you’ve done in terms of great performance over last X number of years. In terms of why this could be a permanent infection point or why this is accelerating at such the rate is it. Changing customer behavior is it a better understanding the value proposition or is it internal tricks that you’ve made in the selling approach?
Doug Baker:
Well, I think is a couple of things, a lot of new touch on. But I guess, I would highlight one of the things that we said we want to drive when we bought the WPS business was really leveraging Ecolab’s now how on enterprise selling in that market. That business and team done a lot of really solid things we’ve obviously stole in a lot of their processes and apply them our businesses, but one of the things that we wanted to transfer, if you will 1 WPS was the enterprise selling, view, skills and focus that we have an F&B institutional --. And I think we’re doing a very good job of doing that, we’ve taken a number of their top sales people, we’re taking them through the same skill development that we’ve taken Ecolab both through the years, but we have a broader based. So that’s one and I would say we’ve done better on training and better on fundamentals. Second is innovation and so a lot of the things that we’ve been working on over the last five to seven years that are now -- are really getting innovation with a very sharp point and that point is we will give you world class results but we’re do it and reduce energy and water footprint. And that resonate I’d say in good and bad time, I’d say every business is got pretty aggressive sustainability goals, we can help need those while delivering cost savings and continued to their foot safety and/or efficacy performance objectives and that’s become I think even more relevant particularly the new types of environment where we’ve got water scarcity energy concerns and like around the world.
Nate Brochmann:
And just I mean what that mean that like with California going throughout the draw out issues is that been extra area of growth for you to kind of reinforce step point?
Doug Baker:
Yes, without a doubt, we’ve got a team of over a 1,000 California focus right now and delivering our world class water technology solutions throughout the industries that we serves, I don't and care if it’s light industry like hospitality or light manufacturing all the way to heavy industries. We are all over the situation there. The edit from governor ground or the 25% savings, it’s really focused on 25% of the water users, because so far agree it’s been sort of off on the side line, but that 25% is at the hard of what we do. So we’re all over trying to help them one at least need that target is probably going to have to do better that than long-term and make sure that they can get the water if they need to operate.
Nate Brochmann:
Okay, that’s helpful. And then just the follow-up on energy two just feel more specific. But I mean we’re all quarter-to-quarter assuming stable from here and obviously one of the hallmarks of Ecolab is just overall predictability and things obviously slip here a little bit faster in the first quarter from where we started out from. What gives you the level of confidence at this point and don’t get me wrong if you had perfect confidence you’d probably be doing something else even, but what gives us the level of confidence at this point that we are stabilizing in terms of your customers and then the ultimate end market demand in terms of whether it’s rig count or the new projects et cetera and clearly production seems to have stabilized, but like in terms of some of that new business where you got that higher margin from.
Doug Baker:
Well I guess I would say one let me enter a little bigger – from a little bigger perspective. Like our operating model I think it’s proven its resilience, so our forecasted delivery if you will from our combined institutional, industrial, energy and other segments hasn’t changed on iota. So our energy softened, the other businesses strengthened, some of its exact mirror reflection of the same issue and so we basically said while we have a bias towards higher oil prices, it is not a huge bias and we will perform well in the low oil environment or a high oil environment. For this year, we anticipate operating delivery EPS to be around 15% which is exactly what we forecasted in the last call. So I don’t know if there’s any question about the resilience. I think we’re seeing it come through. If you look at energy in particular look I think the team is on exactly where you’d want them to be on. Energy is more cyclical if our cyclicality means basically flat sales in Ol at the bottom of the trop I don’t know how you called it cyclical. If you draw it on a graph, it’s a flat piece of a graph before you start going up again. And that’s exactly what we anticipated, that’s what we talked about that we saw when we did the analysis of the last drop in ’08, ’09 it’s basically what we’re forecasting right now and the team is on new technology we’ve got some great new launches. We’ve got stuff that’s going to make fracs much more efficacious while reducing water substantially and this is exactly what this industry needs. I think we’re going to be positioned with more sail when the wind starts blowing in our direction and that’s what the team is focused on. So I don’t know I think the model is doing pretty well. You got to get under the covers if there’s down FX news and look at the underlying business and I guess I would only offer this, if FX was a $0.30 help I think you guys would be looking deeply to say how the heck is the core business performing. And I think those are the fundamental questions to long term value that have got to be asked and I think when they’re asked and addressed here they look pretty good.
Operator:
Next question comes from Gary Bisbee with RBC Capital Markets.
Gary Bisbee:
[indiscernible] and I guess Mike you’ve said that you expect the second half to look better from an earnings growth perspective than the first and I understand that the raw material cost benefit increases. Is that the primary driver of that statement or are you expecting the revenue growth acceleration you’ve seen in the last quarter or two on a constant currency basis in non-energy to continue into the back half of the year?
Michael Monahan:
Yes I think you got it Gary its continued strong sales performance from the non-energy segments. The energy as we already forecasted and you’re right, the raw material savings grow as the year goes simply because it takes a while for it to work through inventory. And so we anticipate that we will have significantly more benefit in Q2, Q3 and Q4 than we had in Q1.
Gary Bisbee:
And then as a follow up I guess I’d like to ask about the record bookings again. I think it’s a third straight quarter you’ve talked about that, but you’ve got a pretty sticky business right and so and my guess is that much more of the revenue base comes from people using hopefully more but same customers using similar volumes. So how much really does record bookings if you have it for two quarters to three quarters or four quarters impact growth in any given year? Is it right to think that it’s a fairly modest improvement, but if you do it year after year that’s what really drives revenue?
Michael Monahan:
No I mean clearly it will add a point or two of growth, it’s not going to add 8 points of growth but it’s a very important metric because it basically – we’re going head to head versus competition who’s winning and so we look at this metric and then work very hard to understand how we’re doing in each of our businesses and versus key competitors because at the end of the day also the business is going to be dictated by how successful we are securing new business and obviously keep our existing customers. So for us it’s one of the leading indicator metrics that we look at, where we get to health of innovation portfolio, the health of the team and also just strength of our overall metrics to customers is resonating or not. But ultimately we’re epic growth driver but it’s not on outsized, but a point or two every year comes from this.
Gary Bisbee:
And is the big part of this just having had time to effect improvement at the Nalco and Champion businesses or is it really very broad based across all the businesses. Thank you.
Michael Monahan:
It’s a broad based, I would say we reenergize the focus here, I think we also supplemented with stronger training in development focused for our corporate account professional who are the ones who lead this charge and I think it’s a combination of those plus as I mentioned earlier innovation. And really at the end of the day what’s new, what you’re talking to customer about, what is the benefit of moving to us. That’s going to be obviously pretty going stronger, you’re not going see new business results like this.
Operator:
Question comes from David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.
David Begleiter:
Thank you. Doug, just back on energy, you mentioned pricing pressure, where are you seeing the pricing pressure and how do you think that reverses or how do you think it reverses going forward?
Doug Baker:
We’re seeing pricing pressure fairly broad it was anticipated because it’s not that similar from pricing pressure that is been realized by that business in other downturns. Right now I would say that pricing pressure which we would love to have none is close to forecast. And so the closer you are well head the higher the pressure in the business simply because that’s where it’s more acutely felt in that industry but this pressure throughout.
David Begleiter:
And in energy going forward post the realization synergies if you do achieve 5%, 6% topline growth, what should OI grow operating profit, at what rate on that type of sales growth?
Doug Baker:
I think 5%, 6% will get you into the double digit.
Operator:
Next question comes from David Ridley from Lane with Banc of America.
David Ridley:
So paper margins were a bit of a drag in the quarter even though you did have some topline growth. Is this more about shifting regional demand and would you expect paper margins to be flattish for the full year?
Doug Baker:
Yes. In the quarter it was more a mix issue in paper, I think the good news is we saw paper fuel sales rebound obviously it was a negative for majority of last year and so we thought about 2.5% growth in this quarter. For the year our anticipated margins in paper are going to be we think it they’ll up.
David Ridley:
Okay, great. And then heard you alluded to some of the investments you are making in the energy segment. Maybe a few examples of that. And also would the proposed fracking regulations on federal land be a potential positive catalyst for your business? Thanks.
Doug Baker:
We don’t see any capital impact in our business or any material change versus what we’ve talked about going forward and in terms of investments in energy if we talked about investments in the first quarter some of that were investments made last year as we lap first quarter. But we aren’t adding headcount obviously in the energy business this year. So, we are going to have material investments in terms of SG&A. we are continuing to investment in innovation because we believe that is core to our advantage in that market we will continue to see investments there.
Operator:
Next question comes from Manav Patnaik with Barclays Capital.
Manav Patnaik:
Thank you. Good afternoon, gentlemen. So firstly, just wanted to clarify your sort of renewed assumptions that you made on Energy. I think last quarter you told us on the rig count side you had assumed it was down 30% plus some share gain. So I was wondering if you could just help us understand what you are thinking in these new forecasts?
Doug Baker:
I think before we thought they would be down 30 to 40 for the year, they already down at that rate right now and now they’re forecast out there of 50% to 60% decline pretty good in North America. I mean, we’re going to be, we are going to present ourselves as the lead forecast either rig count and/or certainly oil price as we go forward. But certainly I think, you can’t read a player in the energy industry world that as I comment that the decline of which has surprised them in terms of debt and speed and we would add our ourselves to that room which I’d say is full of people.
Manav Patnaik:
Okay. I guess what I’m trying to get add is I guess do you see any room for further downside just outside of the FX headwinds?
Doug Baker:
Well, I can’t, yeah and I guess, I would see room for upside too. Right now the forecast that we have is our best estimation of 50-50. And I would say in total from an operating standpoint as I million earlier or forecast in total have changed. So the elements of change, energy got worse and the other business is got better, net it’s about -- and all I know was next time we’re talking, we’ll have some changes in our forecast, but I don’t believe our forecast on operating performance for the year in total is highly risks.
Manav Patnaik:
Okay. And then on the FX side, obviously every company out there is getting hit and it seems like it probably gets worse too. But at some point does the pressure from FX force you to make any operational changes in the different regions or is it just purely translational and when it goes down you get the hit and when it goes up you will start seeing a benefit?
Doug Baker:
Yes, by and large most of its optics it’s translation of locally generated operating profit translated back in the dollars. Now with that said, there are certainly some items that we manufacture in one currency and selling another. And we are looking in all those items, you got to be very careful not to change currency. And so if we can see that we can safe money under any currencies scenario, we will make the moves. If it is a move dependent on a strong dollar, you got to be very careful, because by the time you finish executing the dollar can reverse sign and you are now unhappy for a different reasons. So we’ve been through this next 40 or in 88 that Euro I mean we’ve seen both over our in-time operating these businesses and all I know is going to change again, I just can’t tell you when. So we when operate in the smart way and not chase currency, but certainly there are sub situations that we’ll require us addressing we’ll make sense in today’s environment and even in tomorrow.
Operator:
Next question comes from Laurence Alexander with Jefferies.
Unidentified Analyst:
Hey, this is Dan -- for Laurence. Will you guys be buying shares at the current rate or we should become more attractive with that accelerate?
Michael Monahan:
We’ll continue to be buying shares over the balance of the year.
Doug Baker:
What the target that we’ve said originally for the year is the same.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay. And then one more question. So you’re seeing a tailwind from raw material costs, but I think you said that also we’re increasing prices for certain segments. Are you seeing, I mean is there would you expect any push back against that just given, I don’t know your input costs or going down at all, is that help works?
Doug Baker:
Yes, look I mean what we always get push back and pricing that sort of the given. But we’re seeing one to two pricing in the balance of the segment X energy, which is what we expected.
Operator:
Question comes from John Quealy with Canaccord Genuity.
John Quealy:
Hi, good afternoon. First question can we go back to your visit lower oil for outcast the sales. Can you comment by segment, have you been capturing those savings yet, when should we expect to see the full benefit of the oil in the cost side and I have a follow-up?
Doug Baker:
Well, I would say we gave, our forecast on raw material benefit for the year remain the same it was last call. And when we gave the chart last time I think we dictated how it’s going to show up first quarter and second half and obviously it was remaining of the year waited as I discussed in the previous question. We have not broken it out if you will by segment nor do we plan to do that, so in the first quarter it was roughly a nickel. We anticipate it to be $0.32 for the balance of the year, so $0.37 in total.
John Quealy:
And then second follow up more of a macro question, so Premax after many months is finally getting a little closer May and July of detailing out service contracts as well as oil field auctions. How does that impact your business? Is there an additional opportunity for Premax I know you folks do a lot with some sovereign producers if you could just comment on Mexico? Thank you.
Doug Baker:
Yes as we believe the move in Mexico is favorable and will be positive for our energy business.
Operator:
Next question comes from Mike Harrison with Global Hunter Securities.
Mike Harrison:
In the healthcare business you noted new accounts but also improved penetration and showed some of the best growth that you’ve seen there in quite a while. You do have a fairly broad suite of products there. What do you usually lead with in healthcare? What’s the ware washing equivalent? And how much bigger does the overall opportunity get as the penetration increases toward the full range of offerings?
Doug Baker:
Well the big wins that we highlighted in late last year and are clearly the driver for the growth acceleration were around the environmental hygiene offering or the program that we’ve developed to reduce infections contracted in hospital by patients and importantly we think that’s a program that we want to continue to focus on and drive and leverage because it’s our anchor program much like if you will, dish machine or ware-washing it’d be an anchor program and institutional or CIP and F&B et cetera. So the fact that we’re seeing success there I think bodes well because that’s basically what you’ll build-up of to drive further penetration as you move forward. So I think healthcare showed improvement, the year has shown improvement in the fourth quarter which was consistent with the timing we talked about last year during this call that we wanted to work on our fundamentals in 2014 I think the team did a good job. We started showing benefits at the end of the year and you saw that was a 5% top-line growth in this quarter in healthcare which was certainly better than we saw last year.
Mike Harrison:
And on the energy side, it sounds like the international side was quite a bit better and when I think international I think more offshore and obviously new CapEx has been an important driver particularly in the offshore business for you guys. Can you talk about what you’re seeing in terms of offshore CapEx projects going forward? Are they being delayed? Are they being delayed indefinitely or just pushed out a few quarters?
Doug Baker:
Yes I mean some have been pushed out and delayed I would say we are having still significant success securing new CapEx projects which you’re right it’s been a core part of the strategy and a successful part. We’re not walking away from that. The team has secured a lot of business this year. That business won’t come on until in many cases even ’18 and ’19 that’s the type of pipeline that we have here, but we feel good about what they’re doing. A lot of the CapEx that was if you will initiated several years ago that we had secured. Some has been delayed. Some of it is coming on obviously offshore continues to move on and progress. You’ve built the big piece of CapEx. You’re going to go deploy it. The money is already sunk and so that continues to move forward. What we’re seeing mostly is a huge decline in unconventional onshore and that’s where you have a lot of the pressure. It is the part of the industry that can move with the market and does move with the market probably most rapidly but that’s where the most the queue pressure is.
Mike Harrison:
And then last one for me, do you expect any impact from Bird Flu on the F&B business in the rest of the year?
Doug Baker:
I think when we it’s certainly going to have an impact on a number of important customers of ours. Typically when you end up with shortage of one protein consumers adjustments are buying more of another protein and our exposure across protein sources is pretty wide. So, I don’t anticipate it’s going to make the call.
Operator:
Next question comes from John McNulty with Credit Suisse.
John McNulty:
Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. So Doug, I think you had said earlier if energy prices kind of level off here, you are kind of looking at for next year mid single-digit growth in Energy and it kind of accelerates throughout that period. I guess how do you get to that? When you think about the major buckets that will drive that growth, what are they in kind of a flat $60 oil, $55, $60 oil range?
Doug Baker:
I think you start doing is annualizing against the very significant reaction and decline and activity. I think you’ve got a couple other things happening, you’ve got some 4,000 wells that are temporary capped, people going to have to deal with this because they have about 12 months under current law to get after these and deal with it which means Q4, Q1 activity. Our guess is the majority of those, we’re going to be brought online, the pricing pressure that we are filling now or annualize against and that’s -- and you’re going to have constant to mannerly increased production next year versus this year. But you won’t have the price pressure that we have going on this year so you could see better sales from that and ultimately we even thinking downstream. We had some minor impacts in Q1 this year from the refinery strikes which were over and we will again annualize against next year.
John McNulty:
Okay. When you think about pricing, kind of in the core or legacy Ecolab businesses, it seemed like pricing was always pretty much either stable or up modestly and it looks like you are seeing some negative pricing pressures in the energy markets at a minimum in kind of a new parts of Ecolab. How do you think about being able to get that pricing back? It always seems like giving up price easy maybe isn't the right word but it happens. Getting it back tends to be tougher so I guess how do you think about working with your customers and making sure you can get the pricing back?
Doug Baker:
The majority of this impact is coming from cost plus contracts that we have with major energy supplier. So when our energy prices go down and oil and raw material inputs go down as a result that ends up reflecting in the formula and worse when energy and raw materials go up it’s going to be reflected in the pricing because that’s the arrangement we have with those customers. So, it’s not like we negotiated the price decrease we’re going to have to renegotiate price increase in most of these cases, most of its formula here.
John McNulty :
Okay, so it is really just price pass-throughs then or cost pass-through, it is not a true give back on price, is that right?
Doug Baker:
A significant portion of it, there are some that would a give back on price but the vast majority is contractual.
Operator:
Next question comes from John Roberts with UBS.
John Roberts:
Good afternoon. Doug, I think in last quarter's release you were optimistic about acquisitions for the coming year. Could you give us an update on the environment out there?
Doug Baker:
I remain optimistic, there is a number of things and number of opportunities that we’re chasing some of them quite a ways long in the process. So, I still remain bullish on being successful in this environment making some key acquisitions.
John Roberts:
And then back to the food and beverage segments since it is the highest growth Industrial segment for you, there were a couple of high-profile dairy contaminations over the past quarter. Are there any trends there or are there just greater levels of detection going on that are going to cause customers to have to clean more intensely or anything else we might translate more across the overall segment rather than just a couple of isolated events?
Doug Baker:
What I would say, food safety in general is food producers are always constantly on high alter and nature has its ways. It’s a difficult game and on the producers by and large doing a amazing job if you look at the number of meals served. Just take it in this country and the number of incidents, it is an amazingly low number given number of meals consumed, With that said, I don’t think this is a big trend, I don’t think vigilant way, I don’t think it’s turn in the United States up, because I think it’s in a high level. I do think in emerging markets you’re going to continue to see height in awareness, height scrutiny and height in consumption, but that’s mostly were you’re going to see it.
Operator:
Next question comes from Dmitry Silversteyn with Longbow Research.
Dmitry Silversteyn:
Good afternoon, guys. Thanks for taking my call. Couple of questions, first of all can you differentiate in the performance, if there was any between new international and your domestic pest elimination business?
Doug Baker:
Yeah about the same really on top-line both very good. North America, which I think we talked about a couple of years ago with disappointing, is really done a good job rebuilding their sales acceleration. They’ve made a lot of, I think very smart investments with the team. There is a lot of improvement from their business. I’m very bullish on what past team is done and the outlook. And particularly our North America, we done have the same if you will turn down internationally that business is remain consistently strong.
Dmitry Silversteyn:
Okay. And the food and beverage question as previous call is pointed out this business is done well for you or it’s a result or at least in this quarter, it’s a quarter of many years of work and getting traction in some of the progress and programs. In sort of combining food and beverage to the healthcare if you will, I don’t think you guys do a lot currently in sort of clean in place of pharmaceutical production facilities. Is that I’m I correct first of all, this is not an important market for you yet and is there an opportunity given your, it’s a great in place in food and beverage and then given you bio-science and antimicrobial capabilities and healthcare too to perhaps go after this market a little bit more aggressively?
Doug Baker:
Yeah, I would say CIP opportunity is beyond food and beverage exists and certainly pharmaceuticals would be a good example there others as well. And that’s exactly how we look at extensions. So either try to sell more to the existing markets. So you try to follow your technology to its natural end. And so certainly that would be an example of an area that you could push CIP and do.
Dmitry Silversteyn:
And my one final question in terms of your traditional Cleaning & Sanitizing business as in Europe versus North America. Where do you stay in terms of rolling out the more complete product line-up if you will in Europe to match about what you have in the U.S.. Are you pretty much fair is that ahead of the time schedule and have there been any sort of early indications of success of getting growth accelerated given a fuller tool box for you sales people to go after market with.
Doug Baker:
Yeah, I think we mentioned or I did Europe sales were up 5% or 3% X energy for the quarter. Which is substantially higher than we’ve announced and quite a while in Europe. I think you reflects exactly what you talked about, we have, we will behind in innovation in Europe was a consequence of our EBS/SAP program. We’ve got free to product line for a couple of years, while you’re putting that just in place that has unfrozen, we’ve been launching our technology over there for the last couple of years starting to make headway in particular in both F&B and institutional. And so that one of the reasons that you’ve see sales acceleration in Europe. We expect sales to be positive for the year in Europe and it’s really as a result of the new business which attribute in -- innovation.
Operator:
Question comes from Bob Koort with Goldman Sachs.
Bob Koort:
Thanks. I appreciate the overtime here. Doug could you talk a little bit, I guess, I envision your energy business, you’d characterize is it some point having a similar business model approach to the traditional business of having feed on the street or folks out in the customers facility. I’m just curious, how quickly can you dial down those costs if you need to another words. If you typically having several employees out of these well ahead on the exploration production side and now you seen this big drop up in North America unconventional. Can you dial down those expenses just as quickly as you move them up or you have to absorb that until you see some recovery in those markets?
Doug Baker:
Yes, the real pressure in that business really is in the production phase. It’s closer to the wellheads. It’s in our WellChem business. The WellChem business isn’t a people intensive business I’d say a production or OFC business or our downstream business. There are certainly costs that we continue to take out. There is much a part of the synergy program that was put in place with Champion as they are anything else. We certainly are accelerating some of those moves as a consequence of the market, but really it’s still in line with what we anticipated creating once we got through the synergy moves with Champion. And so G&A rightsizing that and doing all those things, we are looking at how do you accelerate it, but in line with anticipated ultimate goal that we saw once we put Champion and Nalco energy together. So are there opportunities in the field? Yes they’re small. We tend not to go, we don’t want to create a overreaction in that business too. I think I would remind you we expect sale to be roughly in line with last year. We’ve got this monstrous degradation in activity in our business like there are in other businesses and so I would call this not a decline, but sort of a pause in the growth and we anticipate re-growing next year and that’s how we’re managing the business.
Bob Koort:
And my last question if I might, can you just help us characterize the energy business in total maybe geographic spread or upstream, downstream, refining just some shares of the business scale the business?
Michael Monahan:
Be around top of my head. All right …
Bob Koort:
I could follow up with Mike if you want...
Doug Baker:
I’m saying again it’s a lot of model flush. North America is about 60% of our business in total and then when you look at the balance you’ve got fairly little more in Latin America, Middle-East Africa would be next and then AP. Okay as you balance out the other regions, Europe is really North Sea type production. If you want to look at the rest of the business roughly WellChem was 17% last year it’s probably going to drop to about 15% this year and then you really split the rest you’ve got about 60% production phase and then the balance is downstream. That’s how…
Operator:
Next question comes from Shlomo Rosenbaum with Stifel.
Shlomo Rosenbaum:
I just have a few kind of housekeeping questions and how it relates to the business. There is a little bit of move up in receivables and more of a move up in inventory. Can you talk a little bit on the receivable side? How much would that might be related to energy and your confidence in trying to covering those? And then just on the inventory side. Is that a investment in growth and where exactly was the build-up? Thank you.
Doug Baker:
Yes I believe I’d say this way working capital one of our highlight in the quarter and it’s something that we’re all over as a team so there’s three buckets. One you pointed out was receivables. That was really just a handful of large customers. It was a timing issue. All those have been resolved. That is not a systemic issue at all. And there was a couple of energy but a couple of other customers it wasn’t exclusively energy but those payments came and it was really just timing at the end of the quarter. You’ve also got inventory. I would say you got two things going on inventory, one energy inventory build because we weren’t able to turn production off as quickly as the business declined and as we previously mentioned the business declined quicker than we anticipated, so call that 30 million bucks in inventory. That will get out of the system, but that’s going to take a couple of turns to do as we go through. And then you’ve got payables and payables was higher I mean it sucked up more of our working capital. It’s probably easiest to say that was an internal different execution that we don’t plan on repeating. That would be the [indiscernible] get to that, so working capital for the year I think we will be moving in the right direction and we also have I think very good plans we have very favorable cash flow for the year.
Shlomo Rosenbaum:
Do you have a kind of range or targeting for the year for the free cash flow number?
Doug Baker:
90%.
Shlomo Rosenbaum:
On net income?
Doug Baker:
Yes.
Operator:
The next question comes from Rosemarie Morbelli with Gabelli & Co.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
Most of my questions have been answered but I was just wondering on the Energy side, Doug, let's assume that oil stays where it is today and you have some kind of a normal growth rate next year, can you make it all up in 2016 or will you need to go through 2017 before you catch up on whatever you missed in 2015?
Doug Baker:
I think you are talking about top line OI growth. Q - Rosemarie Morbelli Both.
Doug Baker:
I don't think you cannot make up the complete bill. I guess if we assume that the businesses really go double digit topline and extend margin and have 15% -- bottom line forever, you can never make it up. But that was never our forecast. We always knew when we bought this business. We you it should be overall of faster growth business, top and bottom, but was also going to go through some oil cycles where like '08 - '09, we thought we are going to see a pause in sales in OI growth. I guess next year, as I mentioned earlier, mid-single-digit top, double-digit bottom -- if oil stays, I don't know 60 plus-minus range for another year after that, I would expect it will be accelerating growth in '17 even with the kind of oil forecast. Most conventional guesses is oil will probably rise over time. I don't think we are going to be completely different upon it. But if it does, I think it's going to be a benefit for the business.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
Okay, thanks and then quickly on Europe, other companies are seeing some improvement on the demand side. I know you grew 5% or 3% excluding Energy but do you see that as a result of what you are doing in-house or are you also getting some help from the market itself or at least expecting more help in the second half?
Doug Baker:
As I mentioned earlier in Europe, the changes like, I don't know, down one up one. It's not the most dynamic economy right now. It's hard for us to feel exactly the effects of those small moves. I would say we think it's more on our back and I think we stated before it we are flat. It was more focused on margins, trying to hold sales, so we can get the P&L for the future so that when we grow we get leverage. And right now I would say it's more of our efforts than the market.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
Okay and if I can squeeze one more, on the Equipment Care, revenues up 7% in constant currency, that is quite high. Do you anticipate that kind of growth rate for the balance of the year and do you see margins continuing to improve after you have done all of the restructuring and reshuffling of your business model?
Doug Baker:
Yes and yes. Equipment care is on a good path.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Next question comes from Andy Wittmann with Baird.
Andy Wittmann:
Doug, last quarter I think you talked about your ability to manage the business and how after a couple of years of a pretty good performance that you were worried about that -- I don't know if you used the word complacency but you talked about the fact that there might be opportunities that you could go to if you needed to. With Energy taking a slight step down here, have you gone to any of those other -- I don't know, contingencies or are you contemplating them today? Is the business at a level where you need to go to some of those?
Doug Baker:
We always wish you had these huge file drawers full of money ideas, I mean we have several, I wish we had more, like every CEO in the land. Now I would say we were pushing -- I think the team is doing a great job. I used the analogy last time that you know if it's a plain ride we are going to land in the right city on time, but it could be a turbulent ride. And I think the team is managing through a lot of turbulence. Making sure that you capture all these raw materials, and they show up in the P&L isn’t like a layout. I mean we had purchasing on suppliers early securing the business, we have to make sure the R&D that had shown up in the mix properly, and then we understood the impact. The supply chain has been all over this. Our team is within all over it. It has been a lot of incremental effort. Meanwhile, we continue to drive new business and innovation. So I think the team has managed this very successfully and I think it does -- if anything I think were showing the robustness of the model, you are a work through the damn clouds of FX. If you do it you'll see it. There are still huge margin opportunities. We'll talk synergies for one more year. We are then going to flip and no longer use the word synergy and start talking cost savings. But the cost savings that are out there is a consequence of both a Nalco merger and the Champion deal, still remains, they're are still significant. Because you really -- it takes a long time to get after the supply chain savings. It takes a long time to get after some of the regional savings. Because he got to implement systems, and when you're running two systems and you have two legal entities that precludes capturing some of the savings that you would normally get after, and doing that in a sensible way just takes time. And we didn't see any reason to create undue risk that could create havoc with our customers so we have done this over -- I think a very thoughtful period. But you're going to see those benefits show up in the business, which is why we talk our model. 60 is organic, 2 to 3 additional points from acquisition, and collect 50 basis points to 75 basis points a year in leverage. That's how you continue to drive. And other things you're flipping in our favor. So we do like our position. I think we're executing quite well. I think will do well, not only this year, but in the coming years.
Operator:
The last question comes from Scott Schneeberger with Oppenheimer.
Scott Schneeberger:
I guess on the Industrial business, Global Industrial, could you discuss a little bit about how you anticipate margins will build our progress over the balance of the year, maybe some of the drivers and some of the headwinds facing them?
Doug Baker:
The industry margins we anticipate continued to strengthen some. Some is just a consequence of seasonality where we always had better margins in the other years, but you also get to see some raw material benefit as we discussed in the other business flow through and these businesses as well. So I think innovation, raw material flow through and volume, you'll see margin increase for the year.
Operator:
I would now like to turn the call back over to Monahan for closing comments.
Michael Monahan:
Thanks everyone for your time today. We appreciate this, and have a great day. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you for your participation in today’s conference. Please disconnect at this time.
Executives:
Michael Monahan - SVP, External Relations Doug Baker - CEO
Analysts:
Mike Ritzenthaler - Piper Jaffray Nate Brochmann - William Blair David Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Gary Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets David Ridley-Lane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch John Quealy - Canaccord Genuity Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research Manav Patnaik - Barclays Mike Harrison - First Analysis George D'Angelo - Jefferies Scott Schneeberger - Oppenheimer John Roberts - UBS Bob Koort - Goldman Sachs P.J. Juvekar - Citi Shlomo Rosenbaum - Stifel Rosemarie Morbelli - Gabelli & Company Justin Hauke - Robert Baird
Operator:
Welcome to the Ecolab Fourth Quarter 2014 Earnings Release Conference Call. At this time all participants are in a listen only mode. After the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions). This call is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. Now I’d like to turn over the call to Mr. Michael Monahan, Senior Vice President, External Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Michael Monahan:
Hello everyone. And welcome to Ecolab’s Fourth Quarter Conference Call. With me today is Doug Baker, Ecolab’s Chairman and CEO. A copy of our earnings release and the accompanying slides referenced in this teleconference are available on Ecolab’s website at ecolab.com/investor. Please take a moment to read the cautionary statements on Slide 2, stating that this teleconference and the slides include estimates of future performance. These are forward-looking statements, and actual results could differ materially from those projected. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are discussed in the section of our most recent Forms 10-K and 10-Q item under Item 1A, Risk Factors, in our fourth quarter release and on slide 2. We also refer you to the supplemental diluted earnings per share information in the release. Starting with an overview on Slide 3, strong new account growth and new product introductions drove a solid sales increase in the fourth quarter. We leveraged that growth along with pricing and our synergy and cost efficiency work to substantially increase our adjusted operating margins and produce a very strong adjusted earnings per share increase. Looking ahead, we expect to produce another year of superior growth despite 2015's mixed macro-economic and market trends, as well as substantial currency exchange and pension headwinds. Lower oil prices should benefit our consumer related customers and our delivered product costs, while slowing growth in our Energy segment. Net we expect the positives and negative to about offset each other and we look for strong growth from operations before currency effects. We expect currency exchange and pension will represent a headwind of about $0.35 per share in 2015. In this environment we expect to continue to outperform our end markets and show 5% to 12% adjusted earnings gains in the first quarter and 8% to 12% EPS growth for the full year as continued good fixed currency sales growth, appropriate pricing, innovation synergies and delivered product savings more than offset the challenges. Moving to some highlights from the fourth quarter, and as discussed on our press release, reported fourth quarter earnings per share were $1.10. On an adjusted basis excluding special gains and charges in discreet tax items from both years, fourth quarter 2014 earnings per share increased a very strong 15% to a record $1.20 despite a $0.04 headwind from currencies. The adjusted earnings per share growth was driven by volume and pricing, new products, account gains, synergies, cost savings actions, and the benefit from the passage of the R&D tax credit. Our fixed currency acquisition adjusted sales growth rate remains strong, rising 6% and was led by our Energy and Specialty businesses. Latin America led the regional growth. We expanded our adjusted fixed currency operating margins 110 basis points in the quarter as we continue to emphasize productivity and efficiency improvements as well as drive merger synergies. We also continue to make investments in key growth businesses to sustain our technology in sales and service leadership. We remain on plan for achieving our outgoing Champion synergy targets and our Europe margins are on track for further strong expansion again this year. Looking ahead, energy markets and some regional economies will present challenges in 2015 along with an expected $0.35 per share headwind from currency exchange and pension. However we also see favorable tailwinds for our more consumer facing customers and in our raw materials. In this mixed environment, we will drive new business gains and lower costs as we maximize the benefits and minimize the challenges. We will once again use our product innovation in service strengths to help customers get better results and lower operating cost and through these drive new account gains across all of our customer segments. Also as announced in our press release, as our balance sheet leverage ratio is returning to our preferred range and with our strong free cash flow, we intend to repurchase $1 billion of our stock. We expect to complete the repurchase by mid-2016. We look for the first quarter 2015 to show solid fixed currency sales gains and margin improvement. First quarter adjusted EPS is expected to increase 5% to 12% to the $0.78 to $0.83 range and compare with last year's very strong first quarter when adjusted EPS grew 23% and was $0.74 per share. For the full year 2015, we look for an 8% to 12% adjusted EPS increase to the $4.50 to $4.70 range with that wider than normal range reflecting the dynamic currency and commodity markets. In summary, our fourth quarter performed very well. We expect 2015 to also show strong operating performance for the Company despite the challenges in energy and more than offset the significant drag on EPS growth from currencies and pension. We remain confident in our business, our markets, our people as well as our capacities to meet our aggressive growth objectives over the coming years while also delivering attractive returns for 2015. Slide 4 shows our fourth quarter results both as reported and with adjustments for special gains and charges, while Slide 5 shows our sales growth detail. Ecolab’s consolidated fixed-currency sales for the fourth quarter increased 6%. Acquisition-adjusted fixed-currency sales also rose 6%. Looking at the growth components. Volume and mix increased 5%; and pricing rose 1%. Currency was a negative 3% and acquisitions and divestitures were not significant. Reported fixed-currency sales for the Global Industrial segment rose 4%. Adjusted for acquisitions and divestitures, sales increased 2%. Fourth quarter fixed-currency global Food & Beverage sales increased 2%. We enjoy good growth in agri and moderate sales gains in dairy, food and beverage. Regionally Asia-Pacific and Latin America led results with the modest gains in North America and a modest decline in Europe. Food & Beverage growth was primarily driven by share gains and we used them to more than offset ongoing customer plant closures and generally weak volumes. Food & Beverage continues to benefit from its Total Plant Assurance approach to customers, in which we combine our industry-leading Cleaning & Sanitizing, Water Treatment and Pest Elimination capabilities to deliver improved food safety results, lower operating costs and better product quality assurance for customers. This has enabled us to win business with key global customers and offset difficult conditions in our North America and Europe market, where lower volumes, as well as customer capacity reduction and plant closures have impacted sales. Looking ahead, we expect improved organic sales growth in the first quarter. We look for further benefits from growth synergies, better customer penetration and new business capture, as well as leverage from our innovation pipeline, including 3D TRASAR for cleaning plate systems in food and beverage plants to more than offset continued tough industry conditions. Fixed-currency water sales grew 7%. Adjusted for acquisitions water sales grew 5%. Fixed-currency core water sales grew a very strong 8%, widely outperforming in its end markets. Reported fixed-currency mining sales rose 8%. Adjusted for acquisitions fixed-currency mining sales were off slightly. Regionally, we saw good growth in Latin America, good growth in North America and EMEA and flat Asia-Pacific growth. The introduction of 3D TRASAR for hotel and other institutional cooling systems, utilizing solid chemistry and advanced dispensing is going well. We also continue to drive better penetration in our other water markets, using our innovative solutions to optimize water usage. We remain focused on building our corporate account and enterprise sales teams, delivering our growth synergies and improving product innovation to drive revenues. We expect to show further improving growth in 2015 as market share gains drive our heavy and light businesses to outperform soft end-markets. Acquisition-adjusted fourth quarter fixed-currency paper sales declined 3%. Latin America recorded double-digit growth. Elsewhere we saw a sales decline resulting from continued low customer plant utilization and extended customer shutdowns and slowdowns. We expect Paper to rebound to a modest growth in 2015 as we drive new business and technology penetration to offset the difficult paper market conditions. Fixed-currency sales for the Global Institutional segment rose 6%. Turning to the businesses that make up the segment, fixed-currency sales growth for the Institutional business improved in the fourth quarter rising 5%. Institutional’s end markets remain mixed with continued good growth in global lodging demand, positive signs in North America food service but still challenging foot traffic across Asia-Pacific and Latin America. Looking at our regional sales, we continue to outperform our markets. Latin America once again posted strong sales growth, while North America and Asia-Pacific turned in solid sales gains improving over their third quarter growth rate and ongoing EMEA sales rose modestly. Sales initiatives targeting new customers along with effective product and service programs around our core markets continue to drive our results. We also continue to broaden leading technology across our global regions. To drive our future growth and improve on our industry leadership position, we remain focused on standardizing and executing global sales initiatives, globalizing our core competencies and introducing product innovation that delivers increased customer value with solutions that reduce their water, energy and labor cost. We’re also making further investments in field technology to enhance execution and efficiency in sales and service and working on other areas to improve better customer value and through that improve our sales growth. We expect Institutional to show continued good fixed-currency growth in the first quarter and the full year as we make further progress on our global sales initiatives and continue our aggressive sales efforts. Fourth quarter sales for Specialty grew 8% in fixed currencies. Quick service sales were solid as we enjoyed steady growth from most customers. New accounts, along with increased service coverage and additional solutions for customers to drive their operating efficiency and food safety, leveraged generally modest industry trends. Regionally, the U.S. and Europe saw a good growth from new accounts and additional customer solutions, while Asia-Pacific benefited from good quick service foot traffic growth. Food retail business showed continued good sales momentum in the fourth quarter, benefiting from customer addition, new products and increased penetration. We look for good sales growth to continue in the first quarter, especially works to deliver another solid performance in 2015. Fixed currency global healthcare sales increased 4%. Growth was driven by new accounts, better penetration and new product introductions. We continued our work to strengthen our corporate accounts approach and our integrated value proposition, as well as improve and leverage our product portfolio. We believe we are on the right track and look for global healthcare sales growth to improve in the first quarter. Fixed-currency Energy segment sales grew 11%. Our upstream business saw a robust growth in the fourth quarter led by a strong international performance and good North America results. Downstream business sales also saw a solid increase, also led by strong international performance and share gains in North America. The drop in oil prices will yield slowing energy segment results through 2015, however we believe our business model, which is heavily weighted to the more recurring revenue production and refining businesses will moderate much of that impact. Looking ahead we expect energy segment sales for the full year 2015 to show flat to low single digit growth. First quarter energy sales should be up in the mid-single digit range, reflecting momentum from the prior year. We expect quarterly growth to ease through the year and show modest first half growth and a softer second half as new business resulting from ongoing share gains is offset by declining rig count and some modest pricing decreases. We remain confident in Energy’s long term growth prospects and expect it to emerge from this unprecedented period in stronger shape and return to double digit growth once again. Sales for our other segment increased 5%. Fixed-currency Global Pest sales increased 6% in the fourth quarter. Adjusted for acquisitions, fixed currency sales grew 5%. Food & Beverage and restaurants led the growth. Regionally, we enjoyed double-digit growth in Latin America and Asia-Pacific and solid growth in EMEA and North America. We continue to drive market penetration with innovative service offerings and technologies and make progress in globalizing our market-focused capabilities and field technology. We expect Global Pest sales to show further good growth in the first quarter led by gains in all markets. Equipment Care sales grew 3% in the fourth quarter. New customer additions continued at a solid rate and productivity improvements from our technology investments and strengthened execution work continue to pay off. However, fourth quarter sales growth was impacted as we exited some low margin accounts. Because of the continued strong underlying business growth trends, we expect equipment care to return to upper single digit growth in the first quarter and to see that growth improve over the balance of the year. Slide 6 of our presentation shows selected income statement items. Fourth quarter gross margins were 46.2%. When adjusted for special charges, fourth quarter 2014 gross margins were 46.4% and rose 50 basis points above last year. Volume and pricing gains, as well as merger synergies and cost efficiencies more than offset higher cost inputs and the business mix impact of higher energy sales, which on average have a lower gross margin when compared with our other businesses. SG&A expenses represented 31% of fourth quarter sales. The SG&A ratio improved 60 basis points versus last year. The improvement reflected sales gains, merger synergies and cost savings efforts, as well as the mix of higher energy sales, which on average have lower SG&A ratio when compared with our other businesses. Consolidated operating income margins were 14.1%. Adjusted for special charges, fixed-currency operating income margins were 15.4%, rising 110 basis points over last year’s comparable margin. Fixed-currency operating income for the Global Industrial segment increased 9%. Acquisition adjusted operating income grew 7%, and margins rose 70 basis points. Good improvements in Water led the gain. Fixed currency operating income for Global Institutional increased 13%; and margins expanded 130 basis points. Results benefited from pricing, volume gains and cost efficiencies, which more than offset higher delivered product costs and investments in the business. Fixed-currency Global Energy operating income increased 13% and margins expanded 20 basis points. Volume gains, operating leverage, synergies and pricing more than offset investments in the business and other costs. Fixed-currency operating income for the other segment increased 22% and margins expanded 240 basis points. Improved operating results more than offset investments in the business and other higher costs. The Corporate segment and tax rate are discussed in the press release. We repurchased approximately 720,000 shares during the fourth quarter. The net of this performance is that Ecolab reported fourth quarter diluted earnings per share of $1.10 compared with $0.93 reported a year ago. When adjusted for special gains and charges and discrete tax items in both years, adjusted earnings increased 15% to $1.20 when compared with $1.04 earned a year ago. Turning to Slide 7 and looking at Ecolab’s balance sheet, net debt to total capital was 46% with net debt to adjusted EBITDA at 2.2 times. Looking ahead, and as outlined in Slide 8 we will take aggressive actions in 2015 to drive both our top and bottom lines. We will work to leverage the benefits and offset the challenges of lower oil prices as we capture the lower raw material cost, leverage the expected consumer spending tailwind and gain share in the Energy markets. We will also continue to drive organic growth through further cooperate account wins, depth [ph] up innovation work and improve field productivity. We will ramp up our acquisition work targeting bolt on acquisitions that strengthen our offerings and we will continue to deliver on the business improvements we are making in our healthcare and Europe businesses. Slide 9 shows an EPS bridge for the first quarter and the full year 2015 that details our outlook. We expect improving fixed currency sales growth combined with good margin improvement developed through new products, better productivity, cost efficiency work and raw material savings will yield strong fixed currency earnings growth from our institutional, industrial and other segments. We look forward to the energy's segment to show slower sales and profit growth in 2015, as it outpaces its end market. Combined our businesses should deliver a strong operating performance shown here, and expect that slightly lower tax rate, lower interest cost and share repurchase will add to the robust operating performance to yield upper teens growth. However the strong dollar and higher pension cost will provide significant headwinds for us in 2015. We expect that combined impact will be $0.35 per share. As a result we look for EPS to be in the $4.50 to $4.70 range for 2015, up 8% to 12%. We expect our first quarter to show good fixed currency sales growth with currency negatively impacting reported sales by about 5 percentage points. We look for our first quarter earnings to increase 5% to 12% to the $0.78 to $0.83 range. Further the first quarter will also compare against a very strong period last year when adjusted earnings per share rose 23% to $0.74. In summary, we once again delivered on our forecast in the fourth quarter with a solid sales gain and continued margin improvement while offsetting market challenges and investing in our future. We have our work cut out for us in 2015, but we are well positioned and well prepared to outperform once again and deliver another superior performance for shareholders this year and for the years ahead. And now here is Doug Baker with some comments.
Doug Baker:
Thanks Mike. A couple of comments on 2014 and also 2015, and then we will open it up for Q&A. So 2014 was obviously very strong year for the Company with annual EPS up 18%. The good news is the business accelerated throughout the year. Our second half excluding M&A was plus 6%. OI margins expanded another 120 basis points for the year. We're on track on all of our Nalco and Champion synergy commitments. We're also on track in Europe where margins expanded 110 basis points for the year. This is our fourth year in a row of expansion. We're now up cumulatively 440 basis points in Europe from our low point. We're also poised to increase margins again in 2015 as sales are accelerating in Europe. Perhaps most importantly, the momentum I talked about, the 6% in the second half was really built by outstanding cooperate account sales and new program and product launches. This is the underlying trend that we look for. It is the best, best sign we have of the health of the business and it was exceedingly strong. So we did our part. Now I guess I'd also point out that world seems to have done its part, which leads to 2015. Obviously the big news is oil price and FX and to a lesser extent pension. So first let me touch on oil. So during our third quarter call, oil was also the top conversation topic and at the time oil was trading $86 a barrel. So we discussed ramifications, implications and the principles discussed, I would say remain true. Energy services will be hurt and the rest of the business represent 70% of sales will benefit. The degree of the plus and minus are much different than they were in Q3. So let me give you our view today. So first of all in energy services, we expect flat sales for the year, could be modest growth. But let's just say flat. Synergies though and raw material savings in energy services will enable us to have modest OI growth in the business, in spite of the very difficult oil market. The raw material savings though will also positively impact the rest of our businesses and roughly offset the lost energy services OI versus what we would have expected in a non-oil price distressed market. So the good news is our team has gotten on the raw materials savings opportunity release. We've made significant progress and we believe we've got clear line of sight about what we're going to see during the year. So while oil has a created real turbulence in the business, by itself it would not cause us to miss our rival city or time, i.e. the net impact on one side of the business are pretty much offset on the other side of the business and really it is not the main story in our earnings picture for 2015. The second issue has an impact though too, and that’s FX and pension. So combined, they represent an 8% EPS hit for the year. Obviously we're not the only company impacted by FX and pension. We've heard many companies talk about this. We are doing all the smart things we believe. We're using the pressure internally to challenge spending and in efficiencies which is how we typically manage. The team rallies well around this, but importantly we're not cutting long-term investments in R&D, in field technology, in systems, in talent developments, safety or security. Those are going to remain as planned. They are important to our long-term effectiveness and we have got to make sure we protect them when the team is all over this. Our focus though is really to run the businesses quite well and to use the market turmoil to our advantage. So we are all over share gain in energy services. Our goal is to use this year to come out of this thing with a bigger sale and a better position to get after the upcoming turnaround in the oil price. Additionally M&A outside of the U.S., given the strong dollar also looks more attractive. All I know about FX is it goes up and it goes down. I can't tell you exactly when but I have now seen FX rate or the Euro trade at 0.88 and at 1.45. So we know this stuff moves around. We have an opportunity right now to capitalize on the strong dollar. We're going to see if we can make that happen. We're also going to leverage our stronger markets in U.S and Europe. So we are seeing the impacts of more I guess change in the pockets of consumers, and we want to make sure that we fully capitalize on that. Our teams are excited about it, all over it as well. And then finally the same tried and true program that we always run, drive new business, leverage innovation, do that everywhere, keep driving the businesses as we always do. So closing I would just say we are on it. The challenges are real but we believe they are manageable. We expect another very good year in 2015. So let me turn it back to Mike.
Michael Monahan:
Thanks, Doug. A final note before we start Q&A. We plan to hold our annual tour of our booth at the National Restaurant Association Show in Chicago on May 18th. And looking further ahead, we also plan to hold our 2015 Investor Day in Saint Paul on September 10th. If any questions, please contact our office. That concludes our formal remarks. Operator, would you please begin the question and answer period.
Operator:
Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question come from Mike Ritzenthaler with Piper Jaffray.
Mike Ritzenthaler:
Doug. 2014 quite a record for new business wins there. I'm curious about how difficult year-on-year comparables influenced your decisions on investments in sales and R&D and things like that, particularly within specialty and institutional where end markets at least in North America seemed much healthier?
Doug Baker:
Yes, that's what I was really alluding to Mike in my opening comments. We have got sort of a tale of two cities here and we also have just core investments that we know are fundamental to driving this business year in and year out. We worked very hard not to I would say cut into those investments. And I gave you a laundry list of them, but it's certainly R&D, talent development, safety, a bunch of training issues that we have on ongoing systems investments. We want to make sure that we protect those and we continue to make those investments, because I'm going to be here a year from now talking about 2015 and giving a preview of 2016. And the only way that we can ensure that we continue on this virtuous cycle is to make these core investments. And so we're absolutely committed to it. They are in our earnings view as you look out over this year and the businesses you touched on, it will be a better year for Institutional. They are going to have make the investments they need on the secure and continue to drive that growth and that's in the plan.
Mike Ritzenthaler:
Okay. Thanks and then on energy, how do you feel about visibility into the 2Q through 4Q earnings on the Slide 9 there? Basically flat, given all the moving parts including synergies. Compared to kind of this time last year, how does that visibility compare?
Doug Baker:
Well, it's certainly more volatile this year. And I would say last year was an easier year to forecast for the Energy business in particular but I would say that's really where forecasting is more challenging this year than in previous years. This is with -- what we know and I'd say we have a very experienced team, this is isn't the first oil price cycle that the team has been through. We've got all the data, we have been through it. I think we've got a handle on it and we've narrowed this down to we do not have a bunch of what I would say tough to forecast areas at this point in time. We've worked hard on raw materials. I think we've got a much better handle on that at this point in time, simply because we got on it early and the team has done a good job. There has been a lot of analytics here. So I think it totals -- that's a very good forecast, things can change but I would also say things can change in other parts of the ledger that may offset.
Operator:
Next question comes from Nate Brochmann with William Blair.
Nate Brochmann:
Hey Doug, just following-up on that question, I recall back in like 2008 when you guys issued guidance with the Henkel deal, and you came smack dab in the middle of that despite one of the most volatile periods ever in 2009. I was wondering like if you could give us a little bit of sense of how you and your team kind of go through those puts and the takes as you look at your business in terms of the confidence that we have to kind of deliver those results in kind of a volatile energy period, with moving pieces of FX, pension and what not. Just wondering if you could kind of give us a little bit of either look back on history of how that came to be during that period of how you kind of look at it during this period?
Doug Baker:
Well, I think there's two sides to this. One is look, we work hard to try to understand what the variables are and then we try to again do a 50-50 position, where if you have multiple variables, which you always do, you have FX, you've got investment decisions, you’ve got business and markets, regions of the world and we just try to get in the middle on a number of these things and understand what we believe is a likelihood that it gets better or worse from there and try to balance it. I would say '08 was a much more difficult challenge in terms of forecasting than it is today. And simply because you add more variables and really frankly nobody knew how the world was going to shake out at the end of the financial crisis. I would say here what we have is an unsettled oil market, which is probably the most dramatic impact that we have right now. It’s sort of single variable. I think it’s shown its hand at this point in time. Last piece I would say is we work very hard then to make our forecast come true and so it’s not a simple way of just predicting the business. We also try to meet forecasts that we give. Our team rallies around these efforts. We are all over new business and driving, leveraging innovation and doing all the things hopefully we'd do. I mentioned earlier we’re a company now that’s been through several years of very strong earnings results, and I always get nervous during these periods because I know there is inefficiencies being built up in the business as a consequence of having strong earnings. And so we look at this as an opportunity to go find those pockets and get after them. And the team is doing that quite successfully. So I think we’ve got a good forecast here. We’ve proven to be a company who can pretty much predict how we’re going to perform. A lot of it has to do with our business model, mostly consumables. And then for energy I think it’s pretty straight forward. Energy is a bit of a wild card but we’ve done a lot of work there. We have some offsets if energy softens. I think we’re in good shape.
Nate Brochmann:
And then just one quick follow up, a little bit more of a bookkeeping thing. But could you just give us an update on where we are in terms of synergies realized through the Champion Nalco deals and what we have left to go and if there is any pockets here or there that you’ve identified as additional opportunities?
Doug Baker:
Yes. We’re on track by the end of this year to have 125 booked and we’ll have another 25 year after that, so we believe we’re going to hit our 150 target.
Operator:
Next question comes from David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.
David Begleiter:
Doug on the energy piece with business how much will drilling be down in 2015? Because it’s actually down half year-over-year
Doug Baker:
We don’t get into the specific forecast but I guess the business that’s going to be most impacted here is our WellChem portion of the energy services business. WellChem in 2014 represented 17% of the business. We think that business maybe down 30%. So that’s the single largest impact and it assumes drilling as a result would be down in the 35%, 40% range.
David Begleiter:
And looking into 2016 Doug, as drilling declines and product declines, can you grow this business double digits do you think '16 at current oil prices and current drilling rates?
Doug Baker:
Here's what I would say. Our going in assumption right now and you’ve got to pick one, is that oil prices remain around this level through much of 2016. I’d say let’s assume they remain at this level all the way through 2016. Once we lap the oil price decline, you're going to have a much steadier state, and you will start seeing I would say steady state of drilling, steady state of production. We would expect to continue to drive share and you can’t forget that the underlying new series old wells come off and are replaced by new wells which we're going to have to do under any oil price scenario, that the new oil commands a lot more of our technology than the old oil and that fact will start taking or having an impact again once you lap this significant decline. So if they stayed through ’16 at this level we would expect to show positive sales growth in 2016. I doubt it would be a double digit but I think it’d be strong single digits and we would move forward from there.
Operator:
Next question comes from Gary Bisbee with RBC Capital Markets.
Gary Bisbee:
I'll just follow up on that last one. For the first question how would you think about the phasing in of the benefit from lower raw materials? Does that take a couple of quarters to really pick in and I guess would you likely think you’re still going to be getting benefits in 2016 from lower rods assuming that same scenario you discussed which is sort of flattish oil through the year?
Doug Baker:
Yes, I mean if oil stays at the same place, you're not going to have the same delta in 2016 as you are in 2015 in terms of raw material impact. But I guess as I just shared with David, at the same time we wouldn’t have the same impact on the energy services business. We would respect that to be more accretive in '16 versus '15, even if oil stayed at this price level. To answer your first question, yes, they take some time to come on. I would say more like a quarter. So we're going to see some impact in the first quarter but not necessarily at the run rate that we would expect for the full year. You've got two different conventions globally in terms of how you handle inventory and how fast they show up in U.S versus non-U.S FIFO, LIFO. So some of that has an impact. So we would expect second quarter, third quarter to have a higher positive impact from raws than the first.
Gary Bisbee:
And then just a follow up. Mike, in your comments on all the sub-businesses, you mentioned -- it sounded like an awful lot of them, you expect better growth in Q1 than Q4. Just any broad commentary on why? Is that just mostly the new business or are there some other things that you're seeing going on to drive somewhat better -- and I'm talking about sales growth next quarter versus this quarter.
Michael Monahan:
Yes, I would say in almost every instance you're going to have stronger sales performance of Q1 versus Q4 with the exception of energy. And what's driving it is the strong cooperate account growth that saw last year which was up dramatically from a very strong year in 2013, and we had a great innovation pipeline last year. Typically these things are leading indicators, and so we are expecting forecasting stronger growth nearly across the board from our other businesses.
Operator:
Our next question comes from David Ridley-Lane with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
David Ridley-Lane :
Sure just wondering how much of the benefit you are baking into the 2015 guidance on the consumer facing side of the business from the lower oil prices?
Michael Monahan:
Yes, it would be hard to pull out. I would say that is one of the contribution as to why you're seeing stronger institutional growth in particular. So U.S institutional in the fourth quarter was -- and I would say actually the underlying is as strong as this. There was reported 7% growth, which is faster than we've seen for quite a while. I would think that the first quarter probably, the only exception is maybe a little lighter because you also have some inventory stuff going on in there. But that business has been accelerating steadily for a number of quarters and will have a real benefit from consumer uptick and spending particularly in full service restaurants and casual dining which we're seeing.
David Ridley-Lane :
And then just as a sort of numbers questions. Should I take the EPS impact from FX and apply sort of an average margin to get the revenue impact or do you have a sort of a revenue headwind from FX in '15 off hand?
Doug Baker:
Yes revenue impact form FX in '15 is expected to be 5% to 6%.
Operator:
Next question comes from John Quealy with Canaccord Genuity.
John Quealy:
First question, in terms of energy can you talk about concentration? Some of your larger customers that perhaps have deeper resources and better cost profiles, are they becoming a bigger part of the mix in the '15 time frame? If you could give us a little bit of perspective?
Doug Baker:
I would say throughout 2014 we had a lot of success increasing our position with the major producers. So that will carry forward. I would say -- I don’t know if that’s going to be -- so I think that’s all good news. We'll continue to do that as I mentioned in my opening comments. Term oil creates opportunity. We've got a very experience energy services management team. They're great. They are all over this. It's not the first time they've seen this. I think they know how to effectively leverage this opportunity, and I think they're making very smart trades out there. With that said, you've got a funny environment. We're going see much stronger sales in the energy business outside of the U.S than we do in the U.S and a lot of that’s a function of -- a lot the business outside of the U.S is controlled in one way or another by governments, and when oil price goes down, they pump more, and they do it because they got a bill to pay. And in North America, it's not the situation and it much more reacts to the market. And so we're going see I'd say a much earlier slowdown in North America as a consequence of this as we go through, which is exactly what we're forecasting and foreshadowing for all of you. But that would probably be a more interesting dynamic in the energy business.
John Quealy:
And as a follow up, unrelated, in the specialty business, it continues to outperform. Can you dive in a little bit more in terms of details? Is it customer capture? Is it price is it transactions? What exactly is specialty doing in the last few quarters?
Doug Baker:
Yes, well on the Specialty business, which is principally our QSR fast food business and food retail business, there are a couple of things. They continue to capture new accounts. That's always critical in driving that business. We've also through realignment of some programs increased their ability to get into a number of customers, and as a consequence they are able to help those customers do a better job in a number of areas and we are able to trade out one product for another, i.e. competitors for ours and we're growing the business as a result. So increased coverage, increased new customers.
Operator:
Next question comes from Dmitry Silversteyn with Longbow Research.
Dmitry Silversteyn:
Most of my questions have been answered, but I would like to touch base on a couple of things. In year other business, you had pretty good growth in the pest elimination business. Was there a big difference between international and domestic pest elimination performance?
Doug Baker:
Not dramatic. The big business remains the U.S pest business and it has been steadily improving. We made a number of investments in that business starting two years ago. We're going to continue them. I would say kind of the heavy investment status going into 2015 has been paying off and accelerating sales. I would also say there's a number of other metrics that continue to improve in that business. So that is the biggest piece of the pest business. Equipment care, I think Mike mentioned had a softer sales performance in Q4. A lot of that was planned and our own doing, and we expect equipment care to come out and have a stronger first quarter in terms of sales performance. But I would point out equipment care made like $8 million last year, which is dramatically better than the losses that we had just a couple of years ago. So that team has done a good job.
Dmitry Silversteyn:
Sure. Just to follow-up on the sort of your outlook for revenues and foreign exchange headwinds in 2015, in the past, at least on the water treatment side of the business, going back before you guys owned the business but just going back a decade or more when there was the last time there was a serious deflation in international currencies, the water treatment businesses moved quickly to raise pricing to offset that, particularly in the emerging markets where currencies were particularly volatile. Are you seeing the ability to do the same thing in 2015 or have the markets matured since then where it's not as easy to get pricing when currencies tumble?
Doug Baker:
Yes, I would say two things. One, our strategy is to make or resell as much as we can, because we want to have currencies not be a strategic issue but to be a translation issue only. Meaning if you are a complete exporter right now in U.S dollar, obviously you got a problem because your stuff just got a lot more expensive and your competitiveness just weakened significantly. That's not the situation we find ourselves in broadly, but there are pockets. With that said, where you have significant devaluation, we have strong inflation as a result in new business which is the situation in a number of countries. You have to go after pricing. I think we're all well-schooled in this. We've been doing it collectively as a business for over 50 years. I think our team is all over this. That is both on the WPS side as well as the institutional F&B et cetera. So they are cognitive of the impacts. Where we do have what I would say export situations, we try to understand the market impact as well as the margin impact. We don't like to drive ourselves out of business by losing share through too aggressive pricing. We don't think it makes sense for the long-term. We would rather get after the cost problem and fix it if that's the issue and it's basically self-inflicted.
Operator:
Next question comes from Manav Patnaik with Barclays.
Manav Patnaik:
So firstly on Energy, just to touch on the remaining I guess 80% of the business, so you had 11% growth this year. You are forecasting I guess flat -- if you assume that 30% decline on the WellChem business as you said, I guess just talking about 6% growth for the rest of the businesses, I was wondering if you'd help understand how that compared to the growth in 2014 and how much of the modest price decreases that you referred to play a role in that slowdown?
Doug Baker:
Yes, what I would say if you did a lock through, then you've have got as I mentioned earlier WellChem, 17% of the business down, call it a third. You've got OFC which is just under 60% of the business. Here we would expect in the mid-single digits this year and certainly some of the impact is -- about a third of that business is in a cost plus relationship. So you're going to have some modest price decline across that business as a result. But importantly, as oil comes back or raw materials come back, it will also be reflected in increased pricing in that business. And downstream we would expect to react next year much like this year, which is high single-digits. So that’s probably that fast walk through of how we see sales performing this year
Manav Patnaik:
Okay, and just in the context of -- I understand the moving pieces here, but would you say that your first take at these numbers, you've erred more on the conservative side of things?
Doug Baker:
I'm giving you our best forecast. So I would call it a 50-50 forecast is what we do when we go out. It’s exactly the approach that we’ve taken for the last I don’t know 20 years and it’s the approach that’s worked quite well for us because we tried to make sure we understand what the different inputs are and we take them all into account. We try to pick the midpoint, understand the plus minus on either side of that thing and work our forecast there.
Manav Patnaik:
Okay, and then just if I could lastly on Healthcare, it seemed it had a good sort of end to the year. Like what sort of milestones should we be looking forward to as you've sort of been trying really grow that business in the next couple of years?
Doug Baker:
Well, I think the most important milestone, we’ve said a year ago during this call that we really said expect Healthcare really not to get better until the end of the year, and you should start seeing better sales performance in Q4, Q1. That is showing up and coming through. What’s happening is we strengthened our programs. It’s leading to new customer sales. There were a number of significant customer sales in the second half in healthcare. It's the only way we can grow sales is by selling more stuff to more people. And so we’ve got to find a way to grow share there, which is what we’re doing successfully. So the team I think used the time wisely. The business is in better shape than it was a year ago and we expect the acceleration to continue in the first quarter.
Operator:
Next question comes from Mike Harrison with First Analysis.
Mike Harrison:
Doug, you mentioned that within the Water business there was strength in the mining side of the market. Is that just recovery against a weak comp? Are you seeing some share gains or were there are new minefields in there? I just think it’s a little unexpected to see the strength there given that commodity prices are not great. So trying to understand the sustainability.
Doug Baker:
Well, you’re right. So the number in mining I believe was 8%, but that included the impact of a recent acquisition. Without that it was basically flat in the quarter. And so you’re theory is right. Mining is in a difficult patch right now, but we expect it to improve throughout the year, in the year.
Mike Harrison:
And then was the dust control acquisition you were referring to?
Doug Baker:
Yes.
Mike Harrison:
Okay, and then on the institutional side, I think the view of most of us was that you guys stood the benefit from potential consolidation in the food service distributor market. Does your forecast assume that that big merger does or does not happen? And would it be a disappointment if it didn’t?
Doug Baker:
Well, it'd probably certainly be a disappointment for two of our major customers, U.S. Foods and Cisco. So I guess I’ll share their disappointment. But I would say two things. We have had a long and healthy relationship with Cisco. We’ve also had a long and healthy relationship with U.S. Foods as well as other providers in the market which is unique to us. I think we work and partner very well with customers, and I guess the way we view this is this is clearly out of our control. I think our teams done a very good job developing plans. Certainly as if it closes and if there's unforeseen things we’ll manage through that I think quite successfully.
Operator:
Next question comes from Laurence Alexander with Jefferies.
George D'Angelo:
This is George D'Angelo on for Laurence. In your slide there is a line about doing M&A in distressed markets. Is that a reference to oil or more certain geographies?
Doug Baker:
Both. I would say certainly if there are providers of technology and/or geographic moves to be made in energy services, we would certainly use this as an opportunity to do it. But also more broadly, either in water, institutional, healthcare, F&B, pick it, in certain geographies where you’ve got some currency imbalances, we would look for opportunities too.
George D'Angelo:
And then as you guys look at the margin levers that you’re pulling this year, to what extent are you pulling margin improvement forward for the next few years? And then if demand recovers, will there be any offset in terms of margin expansion?
Doug Baker:
No, I don’t even -- I don’t know that we know how to do that and it certainly isn’t in our plan. So no I wouldn’t expect any negative rebound as a consequence of actions we’re taking this year.
George D'Angelo:
Okay, and just one last quick one. What percentage of sales in the energy segment are to governments and are there any governments that are particularly large percentage of sales?
Doug Baker:
Well, it’s not directly to governments per se in all cases. It could be state owned enterprises and others. I don’t know that I have number at hand here. 63% of that business is in North America. So you so and start whittling down from there.
Operator:
Next question comes from Scott Schneeberger with Oppenheimer.
Scott Schneeberger:
Curious, with regard to some of your more upstream areas in energy and well completion, anecdotally what are you hearing from customers on the volume, on the price side? We obviously see the guidance and how it progresses through the year. But are you sensing aggressive behavior from your customers there, just anecdotally what’s you’re seeing and hearing from your [indiscernible].
Doug Baker:
I think what we've seen is fairly dramatic cut back in terms of exploration capital and drilling activity. In terms of production I would say we're seeing some markets where production is up quite dramatically because they're trying to offset the negative impact of lower price, because they've got I would say some bills to pay. And in others areas, obviously ultimately we think production will get more in line with demand and I guess we forecast our belief right now is that may be well into 2016. But this is a very different energy situation than was '08 - '09 where really you had very dramatic demand disruption. This is much more oversupply situation.
Scott Schneeberger:
And following upon that, internally would we see any material change in CapEx over the course of 2015, may be into '16 with regard to energy just on the commodity prices.
Doug Baker:
Our own capital spending or our…
Scott Schneeberger:
Yes.
Doug Baker:
Yes. Certainly a fair -- for deploying less new business for a period of time they'll see less capital deployed there. I would also say some of the things you might have to do from a volume capacity situation might be delayed six months or a couple quarters simply because of the forecast we just gave you on sales.
Scott Schneeberger:
Nothing that will take you too much off your historical total company CapEx to revenue relationship.
Doug Baker:
No, because sales are down also in energy. So I think you can use the historic numbers that you've been using as you go forward model.
Operator:
Next question comes from John Roberts with UBS.
John Roberts:
I'm looking at Slide 9 and we've got 5% to 12% growth in the first quarter and then higher growth in the remaining three quarters of the year, 8% to 13%. I would have guessed that the comps are going be more challenging in either the second quarter because of currency or maybe the third quarter because of energy. But is that fair to say that, that 8% to 13% for the second, third and fourth quarter, one of those quarters is going to be your toughest comparison of the year.
Doug Baker:
Well, I'd say two things. Our toughest FX quarter in 2014 was the fourth. And as you go forward, because it really started moving then. The biggest driver, and I think if you go down below embedded in those numbers we've tried to call out that the raw material moved, you're seeing a nipple in first quarter and averaging $0.10 in the next three quarters. That’s probably the single biggest rate change.
John Roberts:
And then could I get an update on some of the new products. There are three I'm thinking of, but maybe you could comment on something different. I'd like an update on new Clean-in-Place using 3D TRASAR, the new solids water treatment for commercial buildings and I don’t know whether the energy drop has stalled the shale water recycling effort you had.
Doug Baker:
The CIP I would say continues progress well bit we've I think tried to say that that thing is going be a slow build over a period of time. And so while it's doing what we expect it to do, it's not a big volume driver yet. What I would call it is it's very important in continuing to build our relationships and attract new customers. So in '15 we would expect that to be like little over a $1.5 million. In terms of solids for water, that one is -- uptake is much faster. We would expect $12 million in revenue next year, off a much smaller base and then APAC Europe is about $30 million. We are rolling out what I call our generation that we've been selling in the U.S with some tweaks for formulation in Europe. We're having great success there. That’s going quite well. Those would probably being the big early drivers in terms of what you would expect to see from innovation.
Operator:
Next question comes from Bob Koort with Goldman Sachs.
Bob Koort:
Doug, I think you mentioned that you expect the most pronounced energy weakness in the WellChem business. Have you seen any deviation by geography on-shore, off-shore, regionally around the world or do you expect it to be pretty consistent and broad based.
Doug Baker:
No it I think what we're going to see is a much more dramatic impact in North America. I mean, you want a big generalization. Because really there's a bunch of private companies reacting to a market. And when you get outside of the U.S, it's not completely true, but in many instances you've got different factors driving pumping decisions if you will, in terms of -- I think in the fourth quarter, it was announced that Russia had record oil production. So it certainly wasn't a price trigger. It was they need to feed Russia. And so if you are going to offset a decline in price, you're going to do it through more volume and so they're not alone in that. You see that in other countries. So it's a consequence. You're going to see a more dramatic fall I think and probably bounce back in North America.
Bob Koort:
Do you suspect there could be any issues around credit profiles of your customer base and concerns there as you go forward with this dramatic step change?
Doug Baker:
I would say there's always -- you never say never on questions like that. But I'd say is there is no material concentration in terms of how the business is spread. You also typically -- we're also selling to intermediaries who are taking some of that risk, and at the end of the day they've got a great backing, which is they hold the oil.
Bob Koort:
And my last comment, I think you mentioned you'd be willing to buy some distressed stuff. I'm wondering specifically within the energy portfolio, do you feel like there are product applications, chemistries products that you lack today that keep you out of certain customers and service deals or are these really going to be very narrow tuck-ins and not really things that are filling a dire need to have a broader portfolio?
Michael Monahan:
Yes, I don't think we feel at all impaired in our ability to go, serve and do what we've been doing, but there are opportunities if you will to have -- I guess stretch our capabilities and create new opportunities and those would be the areas that we would be looking at it. So it would be somewhat similar technology but in a new area that would allow us to play and expand our footprint.
Operator:
Next question comes from P.J. Juvekar with Citi.
P.J. Juvekar:
Doug, healthcare was seen as a major growth driver prior to your entry into Energy. And Energy slows down, would you look at healthcare again as an area to invest in?
Doug Baker:
Yes P.J., I guess I would say, we never really lost our interest and our belief in healthcare even as a consequence of energy's very stellar run. So I guess we're clearly steadfast. What we did say last year is we were quote unquote putting it in the shop because we had some work to do on the offering. I think that time has been well spent. It's not like we love 4% growth in the fourth quarter. It's just better than 1% growth. But it's the step you have got to take if you want to get back to high single-digits and ideally hopefully back to double-digits. So I'd say healthcare remains a great area, we believe for us to play and we remain very interested in continuing to build that business.
P.J. Juvekar:
Okay. And then a financial question. You your net debt to EBITDA is about 2.2 times. You announced $1 billion buyback. You also said that you want to ramp up M&A with a strong dollar here. So when you -- if you take actions on both of those, where do you think your leverage ratio will stabilize?
Doug Baker:
Yes not much different from where it is now maybe marginally lower like 2 1.
P.J. Juvekar:
But if you do those you are saying that you can fund those both through your free cash flow and then pay down some debt to bring it down?
Doug Baker:
Yes. We expect to make more money this year. That's part of the equation. But yes we've certainly done the math here.
Operator:
Next question comes from Shlomo Rosenbaum with Stifel.
Shlomo Rosenbaum:
Hey Doug, on the institutional side, are you already seeing some benefit from the lower oil prices, putting more money in the consumer's pockets? I am hearing the restaurant [ph], it's not quantified and hospitality also not quantified but people are talking about core on the margins. Are you clients telling you it's having more of an impact on them?
Doug Baker:
I guess, I cited a number earlier that Institutional had a particularly strong quarter in North America, Q4 up 7 and I wouldn't take that and roll 7 forward for the next 12 years, because then there was probably some inventory build. But with that said, I guess we attribute that to of course our own great execution. But no doubt the market has gotten a little better. I think in the fourth quarter it was the first time and I don't remember four or five years that we saw an uptick in old service restaurant foot traffic. And I don't think it's coincidental. I think it's as a result of more dollars in consumer's pockets. And what’s your broadly -- or if you won’t talk about specific geographies, what should we think about in terms of the sales outlook for Europe, talking about continuing to get the margin expansion? Are you going to get any -- are you expecting to get some additional benefit from the top line or is it despite not a lot of benefit in to the top line?
Doug Baker:
It’s going to be more muted because it’s Europe but no, we would expect that we are going to have improved sales in 2015. I would say all the signs that we see, the business steadily, if you looked underneath, got better throughout the year. It was modestly positive in 2014 if you’re all in. We see pretty good start to the business in 2015. We’d expect to have a couple of points of sales growth which is going to be critical because it’s going to be a real driver now going forward of margin expansion. And if we see that we think we’re going to have another very, very positive year in terms of margin expansion.
Shlomo Rosenbaum:
And then just thinking about free cash flow for 2015, should I think of it on a free cash flow basis, not necessarily EBITDA but free cash flow. Should I think of that growing in line with EPS growth?
Doug Baker:
Yes.
Operator:
Next question comes from Rosemarie Morbelli with Gabelli & Company.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
And just Doug following up on the 2% growth in European sales, that is I presume before FX isn’t it? Or are you including the negative impact from FX?
Doug Baker:
Thank you, Rosemarie. No, that is a fixed currency yield.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
Okay, so now I have a question on Energy. Would you expect to be flat? If I remember correctly your earlier comments, at the end of the third quarter what you said was that if oil remain between $81 and $91, so let’s call it $85, your revenues in that segment would be up 10%. If oil came down to $75 it would be up 5%. So you are losing 5% of growth with $10 difference. Now oil is at let’s call it 50 and shouldn’t it be down 10% versus last year as opposed to being flat and what am I missing?
Doug Baker:
Well, really it’s -- the volume is -- at the end of the day, we’re mostly in the production phase and we’re also in the refining phase and that’s going to be mostly driven by demand. Demand of oil year-on-year is going to be slightly up is the forecast, very slightly. But you’re not having a huge degradation in volume of oil produced around the world. Well, you’re going to have produce but not a consumed. And so we’ll take some production hit on this thing but you also have to understand underneath there as old comes on and new comes on, we have a significant step up in the amount of stuff consumed in the new wells. So taking a linear drive on this across the enterprise. This is not going to work and it’s not just price. We’re not stuck on the price.
Rosemarie Morbelli:
And then lastly, if I may, can you give us approximately the number of sales force addition for the year and whether you expect to add the same amount more or less in 2015?
Doug Baker:
Certainly in total it’s going to be around 2%. Obviously the mix is going to be somewhat different. We’re not going to see the same adds obviously in energy services and you'll probably see a little more in institutional as a consequence of the strength there.
Operator:
Our final question comes from Justin Hauke with Robert Baird.
Justin Hauke:
So I don’t see in the interim on the loss, but I guess if we could just get a little bit more color on specifically what raws you see benefiting because when you look at refined product prices, it really hasn't moved a whole lot. So maybe just the magnitude of that. And then I know raws are roughly 50% of your cost of goods sold. What's embedded in the guidance in terms of a percentage decline in your raws?
Doug Baker:
Well, I think if you go to Page 9 we gave you what the embedded raw material savings are and EPS. You know the number of shares. You can get into it. We’re trying to make this clear. I would say a lot of these -- half of that benefit and this is the way it falls, because energy buys more oil based or oil derived raw materials than our other businesses. And they will see the most benefit. Some of that will be given back in the form of cost relief to customers as a consequence of our cost plus contracts. We have other businesses where really they do not a dramatic change in raw materials. Institutional as some savings, fairly modest, because you also have a lot of caustic and other materials that they buy which are not going to be impacted by the price of oil. I would say across the enterprise what's often lost when we have this discussion is what are the inflation drivers in our business? It's rarely, really raw materials. We spend a lot more on people then we do on raw materials and our people costs go up every year, both in terms of salary or what we pay them and benefits. And that is the number one inflation driver and certainly will be an inflation driver this year, even for those businesses, seeing material raw material savings. They will still net have inflation, i.e. the costs will be higher. How do we offset that productivity gains, really driven by implementation, new technology, we work to do a number of things, reformulation of products. So we can give a better product at a lower raw material cost. But this trade is also got to be favorable for customers where ultimately you start cashing in your good will over time which is a bad thing to do if you want to be share leader for an extended period of time. So I don’t know that helps but I would look at Page 9. I think a lot of answers are there. Or if you have model questions, you can certainly Mike or Lisa.
Justin Hauke:
Yes. No thanks. I didn’t see that online. And then on last question, this more of a clarification. On the $0.20 special charges in '15, is there anything that’s incremental in that restructuring? Because if we go back and look at what's been disclosed in the Ks for the restructuring cost related to Nalco and Champion, you would thought it would have been maybe half of that. So is there anything that's new you just have some numbers messed up there.
Doug Baker:
Yes, what I mentioned earlier, we went and challenged our businesses to go relook at where synergies would likely exist, and maybe we didn’t find them at the rate we expected, that we have gone after and re looked at opportunities both in regional costs and some corporate cost, as well as within some divisions where we had some I would say natural synergies as well, say WPS, where we folded in the historic Ecolab business into the WPS business and in those areas. So certainly we use the opportunity that FX pressure has bought to challenge our team to get after and take another look.
Operator:
We'll turn the call back over to Monahan for closing comments.
Michael Monahan:
Thanks everyone. That wraps up our fourth quarter conference call. This conference call and the associated slides will be available for replay on our website. Thanks for your time and participation today. Our best wishes for the rest of the day to you.
Operator:
Thank you for your participation in today’s conference. Please disconnect at this time.
Executives:
Michael Monahan - Senior Vice President of External Relations Doug Baker - Chairman and CEO
Analysts:
Gary Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets Mike Ritzenthaler - Piper Jaffray Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research David Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Nate Brochmann - William Blair John Quealy - Canaccord Genuity John McNulty - Crédit Suisse David Ridley-Lane - Merrill Lynch John Roberts - UBS Laurence Alexander - Jefferies Andy Wittmann - Baird Mike Harrison - First Analysis Rosemarie Morbelli - Gabelli & Company Manav Patnaik - Barclays Bob Koort - Goldman Sachs Eric Petrie - Citi Richard O’Reilly - Revere Associates
Operator:
Welcome to the Ecolab Third Quarter 2014 Earnings Release Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions). This call is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. Now I’d like to turn over the call to Mr. Michael Monahan, Senior Vice President, External Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Michael Monahan:
Hello everyone. And welcome to Ecolab’s Third Quarter Conference Call. With me today is Doug Baker, Ecolab’s Chairman and CEO. A copy of our earnings release and the accompanying slides referenced in this teleconference are available on Ecolab’s website at ecolab.com/investor. Please take a moment to read the cautionary statements on slide 2, stating that this teleconference and the slides include estimates of future performance. These are forward-looking statements, and actual results could differ materially from those projected. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are described in the section of our most recent Forms 10-K and 10-Q item under Item 1A, Risk Factors, in our third quarter release and on slide 2. We also refer you to the supplemental diluted earnings per share information in the release. Starting with an overview on slide 3, we delivered strong results in the third quarter. Sales volume growth was strong, improving from the second quarter rate. We leveraged that growth along with pricing and our synergy and cost efficiency work to substantially increase our adjusted operating margins and produce a very strong adjusted earnings per share increase. Looking ahead, we expect to continue to outperform our markets and show strong 13% to 17% adjusted earnings gains in the fourth quarter and upper-teens EPS growth for the full year as good sales growth, appropriate pricing, innovation, synergies and margin leverage more than offset weak international markets. Moving to some highlights from the third quarter and as discussed in our press release, reported third quarter earnings per share were $1.19. On an adjusted basis, excluding special gains and charges and discrete tax items from both years, third quarter 2014 earnings per share increased a strong 16% to a record $1.21. The adjusted earnings per share growth was driven by volume and pricing, new products, account gains, synergies and cost-savings actions. Our fixed-currency acquisition adjusted sales growth rate improved from the second quarter, rising 6% and was led by our Energy, Specialty and other businesses. Latin America led the regional growth once again and we enjoyed good growth in North America and Asia-Pacific. We continue to be aggressive, focusing on top-line growth. We are emphasizing our innovative product and service strength, as well as our wide range of effective solutions to help customers get better results and lower operating costs and through these, drive new account gains across all of our customer segments. We also continue to implement appropriate price increases to help offset higher costs and investments in our business. We expanded our adjusted fixed-currency operating margins a 110 basis points in the quarter, as we continue to emphasize productivity and efficiency improvement as well as drive merger synergies. We also continue to make investments in key growth businesses to sustain our technology, and sales and service leadership. We remain on plan for achieving our Nalco and Champion synergy targets. And our Europe margins are on track for further strong expansion again this year. Looking ahead, while end markets present ongoing challenges, we look for the fourth quarter to show continued strong sales gains and margin improvement. Fourth quarter adjusted EPS is expected to increase 13% to 17% to the $1.18 to $1.22 range and compare with last year’s adjusted EPS of $1.04. Business growth and the benefits from synergies and cost reductions should more than offset lackluster global economic trends. In addition, the quarter will compare against a 17% adjusted EPS gain in last year’s fourth quarter. For the full year 2014, we continue to look for a very strong 18% to 19% EPS increase to the $4.16 to $4.20 range. In summary, our third quarter performed well. And we expect the fourth quarter to also show strong earnings growth as we more than offset challenging economic conditions while making the key investments to drive our superior results this year, as well as for the future. Slide 4 shows our third quarter results, both as reported and with adjustments for special gains and charges, while slide five shows our sales growth detail. Ecolab’s consolidated fixed-currency sales for the third quarter increased 6%. Acquisition-adjusted fixed-currency sales also rose 6%. Looking at the growth components. Volume and mix increased 5%; pricing rose 1%; acquisitions and divestitures and currency were not significant. Reported fixed-currency sales for the Global Industrial segment rose 3%; adjusted for acquisitions and divestitures sales increased 2%. Third quarter fixed-currency global Food & Beverage sales increased 4%, growth was led by dairy and agri with the moderate sales growth in beverage which more than offset lower sales in the weak protein market. Regionally, Asia-Pacific and Latin America led results with the other region showing modest growth, driven by share gains as we more than offset plant closures and weak volumes. Food & Beverage continues to benefit from its Total Plant Assurance approach to the customers, in which we combine industry-leading Cleaning & Sanitizing, Water Treatment and Pest Elimination capabilities to deliver improved food safety results, lower operating costs and better product quality assurance for customers. This has enabled us to win business with key global customers and offset difficult conditions in our North America and Europe markets, where lower volumes, as well as customer capacity reduction and plant closures, have impacted sales. Looking ahead, we expect modest organic sales growth in the fourth quarter. We look for further benefits from growth synergies, better customer penetration and new business capture, as well as leverage from our innovation pipeline, including 3D TRASAR for clean-in-place systems in Food & Beverage plants to more than offset tough industry conditions. Acquisition-adjusted fixed-currency water sales increased 3%. The heavy and light businesses showed good growth and mining recorded slight gains as industrial markets generally weaken during the quarter. Regionally, we saw a good growth in Latin America, moderate growth in North America and modest gains in both EMEA and Asia-Pacific. Introduction of 3D TRASAR for hotel and other institutional cooling systems, utilizing solid chemistry and advance dispensing is going well. We also continue to drive better penetration in our other water markets using our innovative solutions to optimize water usage. We remain focused on building our corporate account and enterprise sales team, delivering our growth synergies and improving product innovation to drive revenues. We expect to show further moderate growth in the fourth quarter as market share gains drive our heavy and light businesses to outperform end-markets. Acquisition-adjusted third quarter fixed-currency paper sales declined 3%. Latin America recorded double-digit growth. Elsewhere we saw a sales decline resulting from continued low customer plant utilization and customer closures. We expect Paper to show a modest sales decline in the fourth quarter as we drive new business and technology penetration to offset the difficult paper market conditions. Fixed-currency sales for the Global Institutional segment rose 4%. Turning to the businesses that make up the segment. Divestiture adjusted fixed-currency sales for the Institutional business grew 4%. Institutional’s end markets remain mixed with moderate growth in global lodging room demand and still soft foodservice foot traffic across North America and Europe. Looking at regional sales trends, Institutional posted solid sales growth in North America, Asia-Pacific and Latin America, while Europe’s ongoing business declined slightly. Sales initiatives targeting new customers and effective product and service programs around our core markets continue to drive our results. We also continue to leverage our global technology through the rollout of Apex, our next-generation warewashing platform in Europe. To drive our future growth and improve on our industry leadership position, we remain focused on executing global sales initiatives, globalizing core competencies and introducing product innovation that delivers increased value with solutions that reduce water, energy and labor costs. We’re also making further investments in field technology to enhance execution in sales and service. And we have better aligned our local sales team efforts around our global value proposition. We look for Institutional to show further good sales growth in the fourth quarter as we make further progress in our global sales initiative and continue our aggressive sales efforts to outperform challenging global market. Third quarter sales for Specialty grew 9% in fixed currency. Quick service enjoyed strong sales growth. New accounts, along with increased service coverage and additional solutions for customers to drive their operating efficiency and food safety, leveraged generally modest industry trend. Regionally, the U.S. and Europe saw a good growth from new accounts and additional customer solutions, while Asia-Pacific benefited from good quick service foot traffic growth. The Food Retail business saw solid gains in the third quarter, benefiting from customer additions, new products and increased penetration. Fourth quarter Specialty sales could see steady progress in comparison to last year’s strong period may moderate the recorded growth. Fixed-currency Global Healthcare sales decreased 1%. New account growth and new product introductions were more than offset by continued weak hospital trends and delayed buying decisions in the U.S. healthcare markets. Growth sales in this challenging environment, we’re strengthening our corporate accounts approach and our integrated value proposition, as well as improving our product portfolio. We expect modest Global Healthcare sales growth in the fourth quarter as we continue our work to strengthen our business and succeed in North America and Europe healthcare market. Fixed-currency Energy segment sales grew 14%. Our upstream business saw a robust foot growth in the third quarter led by a strong international performance and good North America results. Downstream business saw a good increase led by strong international performance and share gains in North America. As a side note, Russia represents less than 5% of our Energy sales. Since the bulk of our business in Russia is in conventional wells, [print] sanctions have little impact on that business. In addition, while oil prices have declined in recent weeks, we believe they are still at levels that support continued industry investment in exploration and production. Further, with our business model heavily weighted to more recurring revenue, production refining business were minimally impacted by short-term changes in oil prices. Looking ahead, we expect acquisition-adjusted Energy segment sales to show a fourth quarter and full year 2014 sales increase in the 10% range as new business resulting from ongoing share gains and new production coming online drives growth. Sales for our Other segment increased 7%. Fixed-currency Global Pest sales increased 6% in the third quarter. We enjoyed good growth in Food & Beverage and milder growth in restaurants. Regionally, we delivered double-digit growth in Latin America and Asia-Pacific and solid growth in EMEA and North America. We continue to drive market penetration with innovative service offerings and technology to make progress in globalizing our market-focused capabilities and field technologies. We expect Global Pest sales to show continued good growth in the fourth quarter led by gains in all markets. Equipment Care sales grew 10% in the third quarter. New account sales, better penetration, pricing actions and improved technician capacity and productivity drove strong service revenue growth. We expect Equipment Care to show further strong gains in the fourth quarter as continued good service trends, pricing initiatives and streamlined operations benefit results. Slide 6 of our presentation shows selected income statement items. Third quarter gross margins were 46.7%. When adjusted for special charges, third quarter 2014 gross margins rose 10 basis points above last year. Volume and pricing gains, as well as merger synergies and cost efficiencies more than offset higher cost input and the business mix impact of higher energy sales, which on average have a lower gross margin when compared with our other businesses. SG&A expenses represented 31% of third quarter sales. The SG&A ratio improved 100 basis points versus last year. The improvement reflected sales gains, merger synergies and cost savings efforts as well as the mix of higher energy sales, which on average have a lower SG&A ratio when compared with our other businesses. Consolidated operating income margins were 15.5%. Adjusted for special charges, fixed-currency operating income margins were 15.7%, rising 110 basis points over last year’s comparable margin. Fixed-currency operating income for Global Industrial increased 2%. Acquisition adjusted operating income grew 1%, with margins off 10 basis points. Good improvements in Water and Food & Beverage income were partially offset by volume driven decline in Paper. Fixed currency operating income for Global Institutional increased 5%; results benefited from pricing, volume gains and cost efficiencies, which more than offset higher delivered product costs and investments in the business. Fixed-currency Global Energy operating income increased 39% and margins expanded 290 basis points. Volume gains, operating leverage, synergies and pricing led the increase. Fixed-currency operating income for the other segment increased 15% and margins expanded 120 basis points. Improved operating results offset investments in the business and higher costs. The Corporate segment and tax rate are discussed in the press. As before, please note that our tax rate assumptions for the full year assume passage of the R&D tax credit in the fourth quarter. The net of this performance is that Ecolab reported third quarter diluted earnings per share of $1.19 compared with $1 reported a year ago. When adjusted for special gains and charges and discrete tax items in both years, adjusted earnings increased 16% to $1.21 when compared with $1.04 earned a year ago. Turning to slide 7 and looking at Ecolab’s balance sheet. Net debt to total capital was 46%, with net debt to adjusted EBITDA at 2.5 times. Looking ahead and as outlined on slide eight, we continue to take aggressive actions to drive both our top and bottom line. We’re expanding our market share and customer penetration among major accounts and leveraging our positions in key growth markets as we work to offset weak economies and unfavorable currency exchange rates, which will likely negatively impact fourth quarter reported sales by a couple of percentage points. We expect to show good acquisition-adjusted sales growth and margin expansion, driven by innovation, pricing, merger synergies and better operating efficiencies. We expect to deliver on these aggressive goals while building growth for the future. We expect adjusted fourth quarter 2014 diluted earnings per share to increase 13% to 17% to the $1.18 to $1.22 range. Further, the fourth quarter will also compare against the strong period last year when adjusted earnings per share rose 17% to $1.04. We continue to look for the full year 2014 to show very strong growth as adjusted earnings per share are expected to increase 18% to 19% to the $4.16 to $4.20 range. In summary, once again we delivered on our forecast in the third quarter with a solid sales gain and continued margin improvement, while offsetting market challenges and investing in our future. We look for further solid acquisition-adjusted sales growth and continued double-digit profit gains in the fourth quarter, as well as for the full year 2014, as we work to deliver yet another strong year and build for our future. And now here’s Doug Baker with some comments.
Doug Baker:
Hi, good afternoon. Well first on the quarter, we had a very good quarter. We saw the improvement in the underlying business that we expected and predicted. Sales accelerated to 6%, new business was again very strong, up significantly versus last year’s record year. Our innovation is on track; we’re getting all synergy in Europe renaissance calls. And energy is back to double-digits growing 14% in the quarter and on track to deliver double-digit growth for the year. This all occurred in extremely turbulent environment globally. This is an environment we don’t expect to change, but this is a challenge our team and business I believe is well equipped to manage. So, looking forward, we expect to finish the year in a strong way. We forecast EPS growth for the full year of 18% to 19%. We expect in Q4 similar sales growth driven by continued strong new business results and double-digit energy growth, which leads me to the topic of the day if not the week and that’s oil price and its potential impact on our business. Let me talk two scenarios because it’s easier than trying to go through every potential scenario. I am going to talk about $80 and above oil, WTI and then also the $74 scenario which seems to be the popular scenario given Goldman Sachs’ recent call. For $80 and above, I would just say it’s same as it ever was, meaning oil production is on; healthy industry, we like it close to $80 because also while you have full production in the oil and gas business, you also have economic benefits and favorable raw materials. If price falls below $80 depending on how far and for how long, it would likely be a drop in activity. There isn’t any clear consensus on a simple number, but if it’s $70 over an extended period, we’d certainly see a pull back. At $75 we would expect a modest pull back. The impact on us, so we’d say double-digit energy growth would likely turn into high single-digit growth as less than 25% of our energy business is exposed to the parts of the industry most impacted by pricing at that level. So, this is of a small if any impact on the overall company operating income as we would take a number of steps to offset this top-line impact. Energy itself would shift from full on growth to growth and cost savings initiatives they would balance their portfolio if you will of activity. Lower raw materials would probably occur across the company as we see lower oil prices. And three we would also likely see improved institutional market particularly in U.S., if consumers would have more discretionary dollars to spend as a price of the pump continues to lower. Now when you look at our business, we’ve got a business well positioned to manage through either scenario and or other scenario. I’d say most importantly we have a team that’s quite good at reacting to a ever changing environment. I think we have proven that over the years. So, my expectations that we’ll continue to grow and perform in any of the reasonable scenarios I have seen so far this year and beyond. So good quarter, we’re in good position. We like what we’re doing. We’re going to continue to do it going forward.
Michael Monahan:
Thanks, Doug. That concludes our formal remarks. Operator, would you please begin the question-and-answer period.
Operator:
Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions). Our first question comes from Gary Bisbee with RBC Capital Markets.
Gary Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets:
Hey, guys. Good afternoon. I guess the question is if we look at the Global Industrial and Global Institutional businesses, profit growth remains fairly low and energy I think at some point in the next two or three years is likely to slow quite a bit as the synergies are more fully achieved. The question is what’s it going to take to drive faster revenue and particularly profit growth from the legacy Global Industrial and Institutional segments? Is it just better global economic growth or what else that you can control can drive better growth in those? Thanks.
Doug Baker:
Yes. Gary, I would say two things. Institutional underlying a number of things are going well. I would also say in Europe in particular we’ve taking a number of steps to get that business, what I would say right and get focused on the core Institutional business. While, we’re going through the steps, it’s I would say having an impact on reported operating income to remains leverage in the Institutional business particularly in our AP, LA and European businesses as we go through and continue to drive volume. So by no means, do we feel like we’re pinned on Institutional profitability going forward. I would say while you’ve got a couple of engines really firing, you often start working on the other engines to make sure that they’re going to be in good position as you move forward. On the Industrial side, it is more a function of sales volume. And the sales volume in Industrial, which I’m sure we’ll end up having a conversation about, we’ve got a pretty mix result when you look at our Industrial businesses. We have our core Water business, which is up 5% globally, our F&B business which is up 4%, Mining is roughly flat and then you had Paper down 3%. These businesses are ones that are probably most not knocked around economically. For the year, we’ve seen losses in the neighborhood of $50 million from plant closures in these businesses. And those closures have disproportionately impacted Mining and Paper. With that said, I think we’re in very good position. We’re nearing if not any bottom of a cycle. And as we start moving out of that cycle and we start having volume leverage, you’re going to start seeing I think good OI returns as we move forward. So, the good news is we think we’re near the bottom. We think for sure closures are slowing. So at least we aren’t if you will running against our current. And going forward, we would expect pretty similar results in Q4 as you saw on Q3 in Industrial, but significantly improved results as we go through 2015.
Gary Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets:
Great. And then the quick follow-up just what exact impact has the European weaker economic environment had like this quarter on results versus two or three quarters ago because I did note in the press release that it did say that there was a slight decline and I believe that was the Institutional segment in Europe. And I think you’ve been talking about flattish. So, did it get a lot worse or is that more just that hasn’t gotten better? Thank you.
Doug Baker:
Yes. It’s significantly degrade. I think in total our European businesses were up 1% for the quarter. I mean it’s not a number we’ll celebrate, but there wasn’t any big degradation as a result of the European economic situation. We would anticipate that European situation is going to remain challenging. We believe we’ll continue to keep our nose above water and we believe we’ll continue to show OI improvement as a result of all the efforts that we’ve undertaken under the Renaissance program.
Gary Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets:
Okay.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Mike Ritzenthaler with Piper Jaffray.
Mike Ritzenthaler - Piper Jaffray:
Yes, good morning. Question on Food & Beverage, which continues to post a very resilient growth. I was just wondering on the challenges that your customers are seeing from closures and things like that, is that -- is the growth for Ecolab mainly new product launches, is it account wins or something else?
Doug Baker:
Yes, it certainly total plant assurance program which enables us to do more for existing customers but has also secured new business. I would say across the board we’ve had great success securing new business. I mean it’s the only way you’re going to accelerate the economic situation we find ourselves in, and that’s true for F&B as well as the other businesses. And I think F&B is well poised to continue to perform well. So our expectation is that we continue to grow in spite of the economic condition. We expect that we’ll still see some closures as the customer set tries to make sure that they economize wherever they can because it’s the tough environment for them. But this makes sense that our total plant assurance programs, our efforts to lower energy and water costs are particularly important in difficult times which is why I believe we’re having such a good success securing new businesses.
Mike Ritzenthaler - Piper Jaffray:
Okay. And then a follow-up on institutional is a bit harder to quantify, but are your customers noting anything whether it’s the order book or just anecdotally on the slowdown in foot traffic or occupancy that on these Ebola fears?
Doug Baker:
No, I don’t, I mean outside of the obvious hotspots in West Africa, I mean no, we have not that anything I have heard of seen any impact. I mean Ebola conversation in United States is probably overblown to what we anticipate the real impact will be as we move forward, but we have not seen anything.
Mike Ritzenthaler - Piper Jaffray:
Fair enough. Thanks, Doug.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Dmitry Silversteyn with Longbow Research
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research:
Good morning. Just wanted to -- or I guess it’s afternoon, sorry. I found it interesting that in several of your businesses you talked about Latin America and Asia-Pacific as being the growth drivers. We’ve seen Latin America struggle as a region for a lot of companies in various businesses in this sector and obviously the slowdown in China and in Asia-Pacific countries in general has got people concerned. So you seem to be sort of sailing against that tide. Can you talk about what’s allowing you to actually have these territories be the driver of better performance rather than sort of an explanation for why the performance wasn’t quite so good?
Doug Baker:
Well, I guess in Latin America, we continue to drive shares successfully in that market. And I don’t think there is any magic formula that we have. Some of our businesses are probably exposed to the challenges, but I would anticipate we’ll continue to perform well in Latin America. We’re not completely immune from economic impacts, but we still believe we’re going to have healthy growth in Latin America moving forward. Asia, I think clearly on the industrial side, you’ve seen and we’ve seen and felt impact from slowdown particularly in China. And so in our mining and paper business in particular, you can -- we clearly felt the slowdown in China. China tends to drop quickly and rebound quickly. And third quarter was not a great quarter for us in China. I would still say we remain quite bullish in China overall and expect that that market is going to be a very important market for us long-term. So we don’t plan to play any differently there. We’re doing quite well in institutional, quite well in F&B; and the industrial business we expect to rebound as we start having new business offset shutdowns and the like.
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research:
Okay, Doug. That’s helpful. Switching gears to the two businesses that continue to give you guys problems as far as getting consistent growth and that’s healthcare and paper. Paper sort of came to you via the Nalco acquisition and you’ve talked many times about it but not necessarily being a business that you’re interested in being longer term. But healthcare was sort of an internal initiative, got a lot of promise and sort of expectations that haven’t been materializing over the last couple of years. Anything changing either with the hospitals getting religion about disinfection with Ebola or anything else that you can point to on maybe perhaps some of your own initiatives that will give us comfort that healthcare at some point is going to be at least a mid-single-digit grower for you?
Doug Baker:
Yes. Our ambitions for healthcare are higher than that. I would -- I think if you go back to conversations we’ve had throughout the year, we basically said we’re putting healthcare in the shop for the year and that we had work to do on the healthcare business particularly around how do we better package our offering and talk about and merchandise our offerings. And that work has been ongoing and I think moving along at a very good pace. We really said not to expect any great change in healthcare metrics throughout this year, but we would expect a change starting in 2015 and that’s still our view. So that hasn’t really changed from the conversation we had in the first quarter. So healthcare, we still believe is a great growth opportunity for the company. We think what the healthcare market needs we’re in a unique position to deliver. I do believe that you see slowly and open this in the healthcare arena to different tactics to get after our healthcare acquired-infections. Certainly I think Ebola shows how serious you have to be in a very serious predicament. And so, as we move forward we expect to gain traction there and have upper single-digit type organic growth in that business.
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.
David Begleiter - Deutsche Bank:
Thank you, Doug. Just on energy how did the Nalco and Champion businesses do back in ‘08 when oil dropped quite a bit as well?
Doug Baker:
Yes. Well, in ‘09 which is really the year, it was like 140 mid ‘08 and then it drop down to 40 and changed in ‘09. Volume was off in the Nalco energy business by 3% in ‘09 versus ‘08. In total, I’m looking at going back. In total the combined sales would have been down 6%. But you had a pretty dramatic drop in price one that I don’t think anybody is predicting.
David Begleiter - Deutsche Bank:
And any concerns that this current oil price that you can grow double-digits in energy in 2015 on top-line?
Doug Baker:
As I said, my preamble I think certainly it depends on the price, David, is what I would say. I don’t think there is any reasonable scenario that says we’re not going to go grow. We believe the price is going to be north of 80 bucks. I would say is consensus is north of $90 at this point in time. If it stays in this range, we believe we’re going to grow double-digits. A drops in the mid-to-low 70s, growth is going to be impacted somewhat, but I think you’re still talking upper single-digits.
David Begleiter - Deutsche Bank:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
Next question comes from Nate Brochmann with William Blair.
Nate Brochmann - William Blair:
Good afternoon, everyone. Hey Doug, I wanted to go back to kind of a little bit of an earlier discussion regarding just like the portfolio and some of the puts, natural puts and takes. But as you said, you’ve got a great team in place to kind of react quickly as some of these different events change and economies do this or that. Could you give us some examples of how things change like all of a sudden, and granted I know that you have the Renaissance program, they already gave you better OI profitability in general. But what are some of the actions that you take when markets do kind of move on you pretty quickly in terms of moving maybe from offense to defense and how the business is naturally set up that way?
Doug Baker:
Yes. I would say two things; traditionally and what I would call tough economic times. We have a very strong emphasis on new customer acquisition. Customers are more open to change when times are difficult because they’re seeking answers to their own internal challenges. I think that’s one of the reasons we’ve been so successful with our net new sales success both last year and this year because of the difficult time and our emphasis on new business. Second, we also have I would say a larger portfolio of cost savings initiatives and efficiency initiatives and if you will kind of our workflow during difficult times. We will ramp these up as times become more complicated, simply because you’re not necessarily chasing new volume and having to build new volume or capacity. So, we have a pretty strong portfolio right now, but there are number of initiatives that frankly aren’t on green light right now that if they got worse, we would green light and start upping our capacity in terms of what kind of cost savings we could generate if we need to. So, it’s shipping the portfolio of work based on the economic environment. I think we’ve got room on either side, if the economy turns to the positive which is not my prediction. I think we’ve got a number of very good initiatives that we would turn on. And if it gets a little worse on the other side, we’ve got plenty of initiatives there as well. And this is exactly how we’ve run the business over a long period of time.
Nate Brochmann - William Blair:
And that makes perfect sense but thanks for that added color. And then just one more question on the energy business and given a lot of the great different examples here to support where you are at. But could you give us a little bit of like terms of current discussions with some of your customers or potential customers regarding any new projects that might be coming on and whether there’s any apprehension there in terms of I know there’s a long sales cycle and these projects have long upfront lead times to it, which helps create that recurring revenue on the production side, but could you just talk about maybe some current examples of where those discussions are?
Doug Baker:
I would say there has been zero discussions with people who are talking about major changes in their capital deployments or anything else. I would say it’s consistent with what we read in transcripts of other people in this industry. So, at this point in time, I would say there is no hard indications of any slowdown whatsoever. I think what you have out there speculation that if in fact Goldman’s prediction of 74 is more accurate than their 08 prediction of 200 comes true that what might occur then. I would also say this is going to occur; these things don’t stop on a dime. There’s momentum in this business, capital is being deployed that even if there was a shift in thinking, it’s likely not going to impact for several quarters.
Nate Brochmann - William Blair:
Great. Thanks for that.
Operator:
Next question comes from John Quealy with Canaccord Genuity.
John Quealy - Canaccord Genuity:
Hi, good afternoon folks. First, back to energy if I could. Doug, thank you for the sensitivity analysis and detail you gave us. In terms of moving forward, I think in the quarter you talked about some customer capture on the downstream side. How quick or what is the desire to potentially protect against slower E&P activity by moving to the downstream? That’s my first question.
Doug Baker:
Yes. John really the way we’re structured is we have focused business team, focused on downstream and oilfield than on WellChem, the upfront. And these teams are kind of on the gas the whole time. So it’s not as simple as flooding downstream, it’s folks out of OFC that up activity; while it’s in the industry, it’s a different business and it’s got different needs and different technologies. So I would really say the way we look at this is our OFC folks are going to be on share, no matter what the environment is; they may start adding a component of cost savings if the market turned against them, ultimately oil is a cyclical business. Our business that’s positioned here is not a cyclical business. And we’ve gone through chart after chart showing this. We really believe our exposure of the production phase and downstream is going to mute any impacts that are going to occur either in the near-term or long-term in this industry. So I don’t -- this is probably the best answer I can give you.
John Quealy - Canaccord Genuity:
Okay, thanks. And then as a follow-up, switching gears to the 3D TRASAR introduction, I think you talked about it more in that sort of 15ish timeframe. Can you give us any anecdotes in terms of customers that have got 3D TRASAR in the industrial or institutional markets? Have they just deployed the first onsie twosie units? Have they started to deploy throughout their fleets? If you could just give us some flavor or your objectives for that in the next year or so? Thank you.
Doug Baker:
Yes, this year is really making sure that we underpin how to fully leverage the technology for our customers benefit. So I mean it’s nominal sales this year and it’s on track and doing what we had expected it to. But that will grow over the next few years. Typically for us to realize full annual sales potential and a technology like this, it takes like five years. It takes a while for adoption. These are very sticky technologies. We build them for the long-term. We like what we’re seeing but this is going to be a ramp up over the next several years.
John Quealy - Canaccord Genuity:
Great. Thanks.
Operator:
Next question comes from John McNulty with Crédit Suisse.
John McNulty - Crédit Suisse:
Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. So first question, with regard to the pricing that you saw, the 1% that you reported on a consolidated basis, can you give us a little bit of color as to how the pricing is working from segment to segment if there are any meaningful differences from one to the next?
Doug Baker:
They’re pretty similar. I mean our strongest pricing activity across the board would be throughout institutional, energy be next and industrial would be third. And I don’t think that’s a real surprise given where the significant economic pressure is on the industrial side but all are rounding to the same numbers.
John McNulty - Crédit Suisse:
Okay, great. And then with regard to the oil price drop, it sounds like you’re not overly worried about it, which I think makes sense in this environment. That said there are a lot of stocks that have gotten clobbered because of it. And I guess I am wondering with your balance sheet having been cleaned up a bit since the Champion acquisition, are you seeing opportunities for M&A that might be interesting to Ecolab just given kind of some of the price moves that we have seen in some of the stocks?
Doug Baker:
Well, I can’t comment on M&A in particular, I guess I will say that we’d rather buy things that are cheap than expensive. So that goes to real words of wisdom.
John McNulty - Credit Suisse:
All right. Thanks very much for the color.
Operator:
Next question comes from David Ridley-Lane with Merrill Lynch.
David Ridley-Lane - Merrill Lynch:
Good afternoon. A few months ago a competitor of yours sold their water business to a private equity firm. Do you think this is an opportunity for potential market share gains and more broadly than not how would you judge Ecolab’s water segment versus its competitors, i.e. are you gaining market share?
Doug Baker:
Yes. We believe we are gaining market share in the water space against our key competitors. I don’t have the pleasure of saying I built this water business by any means. So, let me say this objectively, I think it’s the crown jewel of the water businesses. The Nalco business has been the leader in the water business not only from a share standpoint, but the technology standpoint. And we planned to help strengthen that not diminish that. So, we’d like that business. In terms of -- I would say the earlier part of your question, anytime there is change usually brings opportunity because certainly when companies are bought or sold there is distraction and when we buy companies we work to minimize it and move forward as quickly as possible because we don’t really want to be taking advantage of during those periods of transition. Certainly, we’ve gone through this in a lot of industries and we work to go capitalize on transition like anybody would.
David Ridley-Lane - Merrill Lynch:
Got it. And then just staying with water for one second, I hear you that it takes time to build up for the new products in terms of 3D TRASAR for hotels and hospitals and for food and beverage plants. But as you look at your other end markets, the heavy and light industries, are those feeling like they are getting a little bit of strength or are they continuing to sort of trudge along here in terms of the end markets?
Doug Baker:
Yes. I guess two things. As I said earlier, combine the heavy and light business, we strip out the piece of it that we’re exiting on the P&L grew at 5% this last quarter. We call that good below our target growth rate. I think it certainly reflects challenging economic times, but we’re doing a pretty good job in that business offsetting it. As they’re having a lot of success securing new business. We recently introduced new technologies in that business through some acquisitions that that teams made. We’ve got other technology being injected as a consequence of being part of the overall Ecolab team. I think that team is a very good team. I think they are managing very well in a tough environment. Our expectation is that they grow in the 6 to 8 organic range as well, particularly in the core water business, which isn’t knocked around in the same degree as say mining and paper are economically. I think we were on track to get there.
David Ridley-Lane - Merrill Lynch:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
Next question comes from John Roberts with UBS.
John Roberts - UBS:
Good afternoon. I’m interested in how the water business for commercial buildings with the solids in TRASAR will scale. Is it the janitor in the building that will be actually doing the dispensing of the solids? And are these going to be monitored by the Nalco center back in India like the other Nalco TRASAR systems are?
Doug Baker:
Yes. One, I think there is every one of these large commercial buildings is going to have an engineering staff. So, we would have the capability of monitoring and if we choose to do that and that ends up to be a route that makes sense and is important. But this system I would say has huge advantages versus the systems that they’re using today, which is I think the comparison that you’ve got to keep in mind, the solids bring a lot of advantage in both safety and convenience in terms of adding product and moving product around buildings, the capabilities that 3D brings to this in terms of using water and cooling towers, more cycles and reducing fresh water and flow and the resultant savings that this brings to these building, both at sustainability story but is outright lower end-use costs are quite material. I would say the reception that we’ve had here, both from our customers and I’d say just as importantly from the sales team has been outstanding. And so we are ahead of our projection; this will ramp up likely faster than 3D TRASAR and Food & Beverage simply because you don’t have the same food safety legislation covering these areas that you do or using 3D in the CIP arena. So, we’re quite bullish on what this is going to do in terms of equipping our light team to get after important business that has higher margins in any of the other water business areas that we compete in. And it’s historically been quite sticky if you have the right program.
John Roberts - UBS:
And if the TRASAR system signals an alert, is it a Nalco person that’s going to go check that out, or is it one of the Ecolab institutional salespeople?
Doug Baker:
No, it’s going to be a Nalco person, somebody with water technology background.
John Roberts - UBS:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Laurence Alexander with Jefferies.
Laurence Alexander - Jefferies:
Just a quick question on the institutional business. Are there any areas where you are seeing a noticeable change in your ability to take share? I mean you have talked about accelerating different parts of the business over the last three quarters. Are there any areas where that trend is looking like it’s getting more difficult?
Doug Baker:
Well, I think our ongoing lament is that taking share is never as easy as you wish it was. I don’t -- I get that reflect in your question, I don’t have any areas that I would define as materially different in terms of competitive environment, i.e. a big change in terms of either much easier or much harder to take share. I think throughout the segment, I mean we continue to do well in QSR, we continue to do well in Food Retail; we continue to do well in full service restaurants and hotels. Regionally, the business is getting healthier, across the region it remains healthy in North America; it’s improving in Europe clearly as we look at the underlying trends; it’s doing well in Asia-Pacific and Latin America. So I don’t know global chains are doing well. So, I don’t have a point I would single out for you.
Laurence Alexander - Jefferies:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Next question comes from Andy Wittmann with Baird.
Andy Wittmann - Baird:
Hi, thanks for taking my questions. I just wanted to take a step back and kind of reflect on the cost synergies that you’ve outlined through the years with Nalco and then Champion. It sounds like things are generally on track. Maybe from here Doug, can you give us a sense about I think 2014 was going to deliver $110 million of synergies and a similar amount in ‘15 and then falling off of a bit in ‘16. But can you just give us a better sense of kind of where you are, has any of that been pulled forward, pushed back and where you see the biggest chunks of that being allocated to or coming from as we look ahead into ‘15?
Doug Baker:
Well, the early chunk and as this goes, the early chunks were from one, purchasing; two, a lot of the G&A and regional overhead overlaps that we had. And we always said that the later in stage is going to be in the supply chain. That takes longer and it’s more difficult to get after. Next year, we would expect again another about I think 105 is the number that we have used externally, it’s not materially different than your number. And a lot of that is still going to be if you will carry on effects from the work that we’ve done this year in procurement in G&A. But increasingly as you go out in the later stages, it’s going to be in the supply chain, i.e. reducing plant footprint, warehouse footprints and the like.
Andy Wittmann - Baird:
Got you. So as you look at these numbers, that level of cost savings is about 70 or 80 basis points of improvement so far, you’re about 90 basis points year-to-date of margin expansion. Is the 10 to 15 basis points of underling operating leverage, do you feel like this is the right amount for this economic environment or do you have a vision that it should be more that you could have delivered more or less from that. I’m just curious as to how you feel like the underlying leverage of the business is performing against that?
Doug Baker:
Yes. Andy I would say, we’re doing a little over a 100 this year on $14 billion. We’re going to be up a 110 basis points sort of north of that for the year and I think that’s what we had for the quarter. So, I would say I’m not sure, I’d say that indicate more like 40 plus outside of synergies. I think you’ve got to also recognize that when you have this level of synergies, you are taking a number of resources that would be against cost savings initiatives that may not be labeled synergies, but that would still be generating saving. So, the synergies aren’t completely additive because we don’t have resources that are completely distinct to work on synergies, these are up and a lot of the same people who end up working on cost savings. So, getting back to our model, the back of the napkin model, I think when we talk about 68 organic, we talk about called 75 basis points of operating income leverage. We think that’s quite realistic and consistent with what we’re doing right now. When you take an account, some of the people that are working on synergies would be working on other cost savings.
Andy Wittmann - Baird:
Got it. Maybe if I could just do one final question. You have alluded to a few times the potential that raw materials could be a benefit if oil prices come in. Are you seeing any or having any discussions on that already today? It seems like it would be early for this, but what could that magnitude look like and what have you seen so far year-to-date on the raw?
Doug Baker:
Well, early returns I mean fairly the only thing we’re probably seeing that everybody else is seeing is lower gas prices. It’s not one of our most significant if you will input costs. Yes, I would say it would be fairly pretty mature. I think if our customers try to start talking about the impact on $35 oil, we might point out that oil on average around the world is trading in the 80s because that target gives away what we haven’t realized. And I think we would have the same conversation with raw material suppliers at this point in time. The raw material markets have been I don’t know fairly steady moving up. And we would say we would expect that we’re going to continue to see modest inflation going forward.
Andy Wittmann - Baird:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Next question comes from Mike Harrison with First Analysis.
Mike Harrison - First Analysis:
Hi. Good afternoon. I was a little bit surprised to hear you say that you had seen better foot traffic rather in Asia-Pacific given some of the issues that some of the fast food restaurants and chains have seen with food safety there. Are you guys seeing the issues in China there as a challenge or an opportunity?
Doug Baker:
Yes. I guess you’d have to -- China is a big, big market with a lot of restaurants. And while, you’re right there were some big food safety scares that had a real negative impact on a couple of large players. They’re large in the world, but they’re not really large as it pertains to all of China. And our business in China is up double-digit in the food service arena, traffic is fairly strong, I think our traffic remark across Asia-Pacific which obviously encompasses a number of other markets. And that’s the data that we have.
Mike Harrison - First Analysis:
And then looking at the energy business, can you talk about what the Champion business saw in terms of volumes from ‘08 into ‘09? I think of that as maybe a little bit more sensitive on the onshore side than the Nalco business, which is more offshore.
Doug Baker:
The number I have right here is the combined sales were down 6% of Champion and Nalco ‘09 versus 2008. So, I don’t think it’s going to be a dramatically a different result.
Mike Harrison - First Analysis:
And then just real quickly, on the Nalco intangibles that $45 million in the quarter, do those start to decline anytime soon, or how long are those amortized?
Doug Baker:
Yes, not for quite a while, never soon enough.
Mike Harrison - First Analysis:
All right. Thanks very much.
Operator:
Next question comes from Rosemarie Morbelli with Gabelli & Company.
Rosemarie Morbelli - Gabelli & Company:
Good afternoon and thank you. Looking at Europe, Doug you talked about a 2% impact on revenues from FX. Since that particular business has lower margin than the U.S. or North America, is it fair to estimate that on the EBIT line, it will have a substantially smaller impact than the 2% on sales?
Doug Baker:
Rosemarie, I apologize. Yes, it’s going to be a 2% overall obviously. Non-U.S., are you saying where is the impact going to be most significant?
Rosemarie Morbelli - Gabelli & Company:
Yes, I was just wondering looking at Europe specifically. I thought that 2% negative impact on revenues was going to be on the European business, so since it is overall, could you touch on the Europe only?
Doug Baker:
It’s on our whole basket of currencies as they roll off. I don’t know if I’ve got that the FX impact, so large as Canada and it’s a tie between Russia and Europe.
Rosemarie Morbelli - Gabelli & Company:
Okay.
Doug Baker:
Sales impact, absolute dollar, which means Canada would be as a percentage much higher.
Rosemarie Morbelli - Gabelli & Company:
All right. And then sticking with Europe, when you are discussing business and expectations with your customers, is anyone thinking that they are going back into a recession or is it just more no growth?
Doug Baker:
I think I don’t know that -- I don’t know if this has got any bearing on what’s actually going to happen. I think broadly I think people are fairly bearish on the European economic situation. But I can’t really remember last time they were really bullish. So, I don’t know that it’s going to -- I guess our outlook on it is we expect to remain challenging given the share upside and the other. We’re not forecasting miraculous sales turnaround but we do expect to be able to continue to keep our nose above water i.e. modest growth going forward is what we think we’re going to be able to do. So we do not see a huge material if you will spiral down in the European economic situation. I’d just say it’s weaker, softer but not dramatically.
Rosemarie Morbelli - Gabelli & Company:
That is helpful. And if I may ask one last question, on the protein market, given the lower cost of feed, do you anticipate that particular side of your business will pick up in 2015, or does it take until 2016 before the herds can be built back up?
Doug Baker:
Yes, I would say it’s typically that’s kind of a long cycle, because we’ve got to build herds up. It will take a while. It’s not a huge piece of our business, but my expectation probably strengthens back half of ‘15 or ‘16.
Rosemarie Morbelli - Gabelli & Company:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Next question comes from Manav Patnaik with Barclays.
Manav Patnaik - Barclays:
Hi, thank you. Good afternoon. Two questions, one just from a modeling perspective. Can you remind us of how we should think about the FX currency exposure? And then the second one is just around to dig a little bit more into the healthcare business. What is really sort of the roadblock if any in that business for you to sort of take it to the next level, like do you need an M&A or a deal to get that going, just curious on your thoughts there?
Doug Baker:
Well the model question FX impact in the next quarter, we expect to be $0.03, but it’s built into our outlook. So, that’s what in our outlook right now. Next healthcare, I don’t think we’re missing any big pieces. I think this is a question of how we put the pieces together in terms of what our offer is and how we better articulate our offer. How we think about going to market, most of the things that we’ve been working on and modeling and testing this year. And that’s the work that we’re undergoing. I guess what we said is we expect a change in performance beginning in 2015. And I think once we get out there proof is going to be in delivery. If we start seeing improved results, you know we’re on the right track. If we don’t, we’re going to have to continue to work. But I believe that business will be a very good business for us for the long-term.
Manav Patnaik - Barclays Capital:
All right. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
Next question comes from Bob Koort with Goldman Sachs.
Bob Koort - Goldman Sachs:
Excellent. Thanks for your patience guys. Two quick ones. One is there any scope for fuel savings and can it become meaningful if oil stays down here? And then secondly, can you talk about the specific markets in Latin America that have been so healthy. It seems like somewhat of an anomaly to what a lot of industrial companies face, so maybe it is more consumer-oriented that is helping you there?
Doug Baker:
Yes. I would say Bob the fuel costs benefit or kind of loss in the wash of all the other input costs. We’ve got pluses and minuses. They’re certainly incorporated in our outlook for the balance of the year. In terms of Latin America, we’ve got the -- it’s hard to pay, this is a single industry. And I have friends who are running other companies and there have been obviously in the capital business a very different time and some of the markets down there that’s not exactly the business we’re in. We continue to do well on most businesses down there. Our Food & Beverage and our Institutional businesses, our position decently we have a lot of upside in share. We have done a good job I think in F&B in particular aligning our sales with some very important customers and we’re growing as a result in terms of water. I think there has been additional talent put in the water team over the last year and a half which has proven to be a wise move and that team is performing well and continues to gain steam. And the Energy business is doing well down there. I would say the outlook in that market particularly with changes in Mexico over the long haul remained quite positive.
Bob Koort - Goldman Sachs:
Okay, great. Thanks for the help.
Operator:
Next question comes from P. J. Juvekar with Citi.
Eric Petrie - Citi:
Hi, Doug. This is Eric Petrie on for P.J. Based on your experience with past health epidemics like bird flu and sars, how do you think Ebola may impact your businesses?
Doug Baker:
What we saw on past sars and bird flu was you certainly -- you see an uptick most notably in healthcare. That impacts a bunch of division. I don’t think it’s going to be an impact that’s going to shine through the total number. But it will be an uplift for maybe some of our business segments. It typically comes in more broadly distributed disease. It’s fairly limited I think it’s fairly easy for them to diagnose potential folks who’ve been impacted. And if we’re smart, we’ll continue to do the right types of quarantine when people are actually infected and that kind of work. So I don’t know that this is going to have a huge boon to our top-line.
Eric Petrie - Citi:
Okay. And then my second question is you noted of your energy portfolio less than 25% is impacted from lower prices below $80 per barrel. Is there a difference in profitability of your stimulation and enhanced oil recovery versus production?
Doug Baker:
No, I don’t think, I don’t think I’d go make that case, so this kind of across the portfolio and it’s less than 25 and which is to say even if that impacted fairly significantly even on the overall energy business but still going to allow pretty healthy growth. And I think energy would probably take a lot of steps to even mute the impact you would see on their specific P&L. And as I talked about there would be other if you will benefits from lower oil that would impact our other business’s P&L through lower raws and potentially more consumer spend in the more consumer facing businesses like institutional.
Eric Petrie - Citi:
Thank you.
Operator:
Next question comes from Richard O’Reilly with Revere Associates.
Richard O’Reilly - Revere Associates:
Thank you, thank you guys. Two quick questions, the first, did you by any of your common shares back this quarter?
Doug Baker:
No.
Richard O’Reilly - Revere Associates:
The first time you haven’t done that in some time, am I right?
Doug Baker:
Yes, I think that’s right.
Richard O’Reilly - Revere Associates:
Okay. Second question on reverse of the raw material cost deflation. In your slide you said the institutional segment had higher delivery costs and no comment on any of the other segments on that, what went up in the institutional cost wise?
Doug Baker:
Yes, that have been more common about freight rate which in spite of I’d say lower diesel have been under pressure across a lot of industries, in some markets like U.S. shorter drivers et cetera so there is just pressure broadly on freight rates.
Richard O’Reilly - Revere Associates:
Okay, broader than just fuel cost, the diesel cost. Okay, all right. Do you see that reversing in the near term, or is that more secular?
Doug Baker:
I don’t know if it’s secular, we don’t see a reversing in the near term.
Richard O’Reilly - Revere Associates:
Okay, good. Thanks a lot now.
Operator:
We have no further questions. I would like to turn the call back over to Mr. Monahan for closing comments.
Michael Monahan:
Thank you. That wraps up our third quarter conference call. This conference call and associated slides will be available for replay on our website. Thanks for your time and participation today, and our best wishes for the rest of the day to you. Take care.
Operator:
This concludes today’s conference. Please disconnect at this time.
Executives:
Michael J. Monahan - Senior Vice President of External Relations Douglas M. Baker - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and Member of Safety, Health & Environment Committee
Analysts:
John P. McNulty - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division David L. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division Nathan Brochmann - William Blair & Company L.L.C., Research Division Michael J. Ritzenthaler - Piper Jaffray Companies, Research Division Gary E. Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC Edward H. Yang - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division David Ridley-Lane - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division John Quealy - Canaccord Genuity, Research Division Laurence Alexander - Jefferies LLC, Research Division Bill Carroll - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division P. J. Juvekar - Citigroup Inc, Research Division Brian Maguire - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division Shlomo H. Rosenbaum - Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Research Division Rosemarie J. Morbelli - G. Research, Inc. Andrew J. Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division Michael J. Harrison - First Analysis Securities Corporation, Research Division
Operator:
Welcome to the Ecolab's Second Quarter 2014 Earnings Release Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] This call is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Mr. Michael Monahan, Senior Vice President, External Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Michael J. Monahan:
Hello, everyone, and welcome to Ecolab's Second Quarter Conference Call. With me today is Doug Baker, Ecolab's Chairman and CEO. A copy of our earnings release and the accompanying slides referenced in this teleconference are available on Ecolab's website at ecolab.com/investor. Please take a moment to read the cautionary statements on Slide 2, stating that this teleconference and the slides include estimates of future performance. These are forward-looking statements, and actual results could differ materially from those projected. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are described in the section of our most recent Forms 10-K and 10-Q item -- under Item 1A, Risk Factors, in our second quarter release and on Slide 2. We also refer you to the supplemental diluted earnings per share information in the release. Starting with an overview on Slide 3. We delivered strong results in the second quarter. We leveraged solid sales volume growth, pricing and our synergy and cost efficiency work to substantially improve our acquisition-adjusted operating margins and produce a very strong adjusted earnings per share increase. Looking ahead, we expect to continue to outperform our markets and show strong 13% to 17% earnings gains in the third quarter and strong upper-teens EPS growth for the full year as good sales growth, appropriate pricing, innovation, synergies and margin leverage more than offset mixed markets. Moving to some highlights from the second quarter. And as discussed in our press release, reported second quarter earnings per share were $1.02. On an adjusted basis, excluding special gains and charges and discrete tax items from both years, second quarter 2014 earnings per share increased a very strong 20% to a record $1.03. The adjusted earnings per share growth was driven by volume and pricing, new products, account gains, synergies and cost-savings actions. Growth was led by our Energy, Specialty and Water businesses. Latin America led the regional growth once again and was bolstered by strong growth in Asia Pacific and North America. These and other increases were leveraged by good margin expansion. We continue to be aggressive, focusing on top line growth. We are emphasizing our innovative product and service strength, as well as our wide range of effective solutions to help customers get better results and lower operating costs and through these, drive new account gains across all of our customer segments. We also continue to implement appropriate price increases to help offset higher costs and investments in our business. We remain focused on expanding our margins, emphasizing productivity and efficiency improvements to help increase profitability, as well as drive merger synergies. We also continue to make investments in key growth businesses to sustain our technology and our sales and service leadership. We remain on plan for achieving our Nalco and Champion synergy targets, and our Europe margins are on track for further strong expansion. We -- looking ahead, while mixed trends in our markets present ongoing challenges, we look for the third quarter to show continued attractive sales gains and margin improvement. Third quarter adjusted EPS is expected to increase a strong 13% to 17% to the $1.18 to $1.22 range and compare with last year's adjusted EPS of $1.04. Business growth and the benefits from synergies and cost reductions should more than offset lackluster economic trends. In addition, the quarter will compare against a very strong 20% adjusted EPS gain in last year's third quarter. For the full year 2014, we continue to look for a very strong 17% to 19% increase to the $4.14 to $4.20 range. In summary, our second quarter performed well, and we expect the balance of the year to also show strong earnings growth as we more than offset challenging economic conditions while making the key investments to drive our superior results this year, as well as for our future. Slide 4 shows our second quarter results both as reported and with adjustments for special gains and charges, while Slide 5 shows our sales growth detail. Ecolab's consolidated fixed-currency sales for the second quarter increased 8%. Acquisition-adjusted fixed-currency sales rose 5%. Looking at the growth components. Volume and mix increased 4%. Pricing rose 1%. Acquisitions and divestitures were 3%, and currency was a negative 1%. Reported fixed-currency sales for the Global Industrial segment rose 3%. The net impact of acquisitions and divestitures on the segment was not significant. Second quarter fixed-currency Global Food & Beverage sales increased 3%. Growth was led by beverage and brewing, dairy and agri, which more than offset lower sales in the weak protein market. Regionally, Asia Pacific and Latin America led results with modest growth, driven by share gains in the other region as we more than offset plant closures and weak volumes. Food & Beverage continues to benefit from its Total Plant Assurance approach to the customers, in which we combine industry-leading Cleaning & Sanitizing, Water Treatment and Pest Elimination capabilities to deliver improved food safety results, lower operating costs and better product quality assurance for customers. This has enabled us to win business with key global customers and offset difficult conditions in our North America and Europe markets, where lower volumes, as well as customer capacity and plant closures, have impacted sales. Looking ahead, we expect moderate organic sales growth in the third quarter. We look for further benefits from growth synergies, better customer penetration and new business capture, as well as leverage from our innovation pipeline, including the introduction of 3D TRASAR for clean-in-place systems in Food & Beverage plants to more than offset tough industry conditions. Fixed-currency Water sales increased 5%. Good growth in the heavy, light and mining businesses led the increase. Regionally, we saw strong growth in Latin America, good gains in EMEA and Asia Pacific and moderate growth in North America. The introduction of 3D TRASAR for hotel and other institutional cooling systems in the second quarter, utilizing solid chemistry and advance dispensing in a premium customer solution utilizing both Ecolab and Nalco technology, has been well received by customers. To continue to drive market penetration with innovative solutions to optimize water usage using powerful technologies, we are focused on building our corporate account and enterprise sales teams, delivering growth synergies and improving product innovation to drive revenues. We expect to show continued growth in the third quarter as market share gains drive our heavy and light businesses to outperform mixed end markets. Acquisition-adjusted second quarter fixed-currency Paper sales declined 1%. We saw double-digit growth in Latin America and modest growth in Asia Pacific. However, these were offset by declines in North America and EMEA that resulted from continued low customer plant utilization and customer closures. We expect Paper to show flattish sales in the third quarter as new business and technology penetration offset the difficult Paper market conditions. Fixed-currency sales for the Global Institutional segment rose 3%. Adjusted for a small divestiture in Europe, Institutional segment sales grew 4%. Turning to the businesses that make up the segment. Fixed-currency sales for the Institutional business grew 3% in the second quarter. Institutional's end markets remain subdued with moderate growth in global lodging room demand and still soft foodservice foot traffic across North America and Europe. Looking at regional sales trends, North America -- North and Latin America continue to post solid sales growth, while Asia Pacific saw moderate gains and Europe declined. Sales initiatives targeting new accounts and effective product and service programs around the core segments continue to drive our results. We continue to leverage our global technology through the rollout of Apex, our next-generation warewashing platform in Europe. To drive our future growth and improve on our industry leadership position, we remain focused on executing global sales initiatives, globalizing core competencies and introducing product innovation that delivers increased value with solutions that reduce water, energy and labor costs, while also increasing our customer innovacy [ph] through outstanding sales and service execution. We're also making further investments in field technology to enhance execution in sales and service, and we have better aligned our local sales team efforts around our global value proposition. Longer term, our new Global Institutional structure is helping to accelerate global deployment of our innovation, technology and training, which we expect will help improve growth by driving better market penetration and new account gains. We look for third quarter Institutional business sales growth to improve as we make further progress on our global sales initiatives and continue our aggressive sales efforts to help us outperform challenging markets and show better growth over the balance of the year. Second quarter sales for Specialty grew 7% in fixed currencies. Quick service sales were solid as we enjoyed steady growth from small to midsized customers. New accounts, along with increased service coverage and additional solutions for customers to help improve their operating efficiency and food safety, leveraged generally modest industry trends. Regionally, the U.S. and Latin America recorded solid gains. Europe saw good growth from new accounts and additional customer solutions, while Asia Pacific benefited from good quick service foot traffic growth. The Food Retail business saw solid sales momentum in the second quarter, benefiting from customer additions, new products and increased penetration. We look for good sales growth again in the third quarter as Specialty works to deliver another solid performance in 2014. Fixed-currency Global Healthcare sales increased 3%. New account growth, better penetration and new product introductions more than offset continued weak hospital trends and delayed buying decisions in the U.S. To grow sales in this challenging market, we are strengthening our corporate accounts approach and our integrated value proposition, as well as improving our product portfolio. We expect Global Healthcare sales to show modest gains in the second half as we continue our work to strengthen our business. Reported fixed-currency Energy segment sales grew 20%. Acquisition-adjusted Global Energy fixed-currency sales rose 8%. Our upstream business saw good growth in the second quarter, led by strong international performance, as well as solid oil sands, shale and deepwater production results. Downstream business sales increased as North America refining showed overall improvement. Looking ahead, we expect acquisition-adjusted Energy segment sales to show double-digit growth in the second half as new business resulting from ongoing share gains and new production coming online drives growth and delivers a full year 2014 acquisition-adjusted sales increase in the 10% range. Sales for our Other segment increased 7%. Acquisition-adjusted sales grew 4%. Fixed-currency Global Pest sales increased 6% in the second quarter. We enjoyed good growth in Food & Beverage and restaurants. Regionally, we enjoyed double-digit growth in Asia Pacific and solid growth in EMEA, Latin America and North America. We continue to drive market penetration with innovative service offerings and technology and are making progress in globalizing our market-focused capabilities and field technology. We expect Global Pest sales to show further good growth in the third quarter and second half, led by gains in all markets. Equipment Care sales increased 9% in the second quarter. New account sales, better penetration, pricing actions and improved technician capacity and productivity drove strong service revenue growth. We expect Equipment Care to show further strong gains in the second -- in the third quarter as continued good service trends, pricing initiatives and streamlined operations benefit results. Slide 6 of our presentation shows selected income statement items. Second quarter gross margins were 46.5%. When adjusted for acquisitions and special charges, second quarter 2014 fixed-currency gross margins were 46.6%, 60 basis points above last year. Volume and pricing gains, as well as merger synergies and cost efficiencies, more than offset the business impact of higher energy sales, which, on average, have a lower gross margin when compared with our other businesses. SG&A expenses represented 32.3% of second quarter sales. When adjusted for acquisitions, the fixed-currency SG&A ratio improved 70 basis points versus last year. The improvement reflected sales gains and cost-savings efforts, including merger synergies, as well as the mix of higher energy sales, which, on average, have a lower SG&A ratio when compared with our other businesses. Consolidated operating income margins were 14.4%. When adjusted for acquisitions and special charges, fixed-currency operating income margins were 14.3%, rising 140 basis points over last year's comparable margin. Fixed-currency operating income for Global Industrial increased 8%. Acquisition-adjusted operating income grew 9%, with margins up 60 basis points. Volume gains, pricing and cost synergies and efficiencies led the gain. Fixed-currency operating income for Global Institutional increased 3%, benefiting from pricing, volume gains and cost efficiencies, which more than offset investments in the business. Fixed-currency Global Energy operating income increased 44%. Acquisition-adjusted Global Energy operating income increased 40% in fixed-currencies, and acquisition-adjusted margins expanded 340 basis points, led by synergies, the volume gain, operating leverage and pricing. Fixed-currency operating income for the Other segment increased 7%. Acquisition-adjusted operating income grew 8%. Improved operating results offset investments in the business and higher costs. The Corporate segment and tax rate are discussed in the press release. As before, please note that our tax rate assumptions for the full year assume passage of the R&D tax credit in the fourth quarter. We repurchased approximately 800,000 shares during the second quarter. The net of this performance is that Ecolab reported second quarter diluted earnings per share of $1.02 compared with $0.69 reported a year ago. When adjusted for special gains and charges and discrete tax items in both years, adjusted earnings increased 20% to $1.03 when compared with $0.86 earned a year ago. Turning to Slide 7 and looking at Ecolab's balance sheet. Net debt to total capital was 48%, with net debt to adjusted EBITDA at 2.5x. Looking ahead and as outlined in Slide 8, we continue to take aggressive actions to drive both our top and bottom line. We're expanding our market share and customer penetration among major accounts and leveraging our positions in key growth markets in food, water, energy and health care as we work to offset continued mixed market conditions and unfavorable currency exchange rates, which will likely negatively impact sales by a percentage point in 2014. We expect to show good acquisition-adjusted sales growth and margin expansion, driven by innovation, pricing, merger synergies and better operating efficiencies. We expect to deliver on these aggressive goals while building growth for the future. We expect adjusted third quarter 2014 diluted earnings per share to increase an outstanding 13% to 17% to the $1.18 to $1.22 range. Further, the third quarter will also compare against a very strong period last year when adjusted earnings per share rose 20% to $1.04. We continue to look for the full year 2014 to show very strong growth as adjusted earnings per share are expected to increase 17% to 19% to the $4.14 to $4.20 range. In summary, we once again delivered on our forecast in the second quarter with a solid sales gain and continued margin improvement, while offsetting market challenges and investing for our future. We look for further solid acquisition-adjusted sales growth and continued double-digit profit gains in the third quarter, as well as for the full year 2014, as we work to deliver yet another strong year and build for our future. And now here's Doug Baker with some comments.
Douglas M. Baker:
Thank you, Mike. I'm going to offer just a couple points perspective on the business overall and thoughts on Q2. Business overall, I would say we're getting better. Our integrations remain on track. Our margins continue to expand. Our business top line is accelerating. We had a solid first half, and we expect an even better second half. Regarding Q2, if you look at our sales, they grew at roughly 0.5 point faster rate than they did at Q1, when we strip out and look at pure organic results. When we look at individual components, we had Energy growing at 8%, which was what we expected in the second quarter. We are on track to accelerate that. The core business, if you exclude Europe, grew at a 5% rate. And Europe was roughly flat, but here I'm taking out Energy. So total, we had a 5% organic rate when we take out acquisitions and divestitures. Every one of these components we expect to accelerate in the second half, energy moving from 8% to 10% to 12%; the core business, excluding Europe, moving from the 5% to 6-plus percent; and Europe flat moving to 2% or even maybe a little better. In total, this will move our, overall, if you will, acquisition-adjusted sales from 5% to 6-plus percent in the second half. Now there are a number of drivers of this acceleration. The #1 is new business. We had another great quarter of net new business adds. This means back-to-back record new business quarters. For the first half, our net new business results were 30% ahead of last year's first half. So we are fully back on stride now regarding new business post-integration. Our innovation continues to fire well. CIP, 3D TRASAR, Solids for water, Apex in Europe, antimicrobials in Energy, et cetera, all are meeting or exceeding our expectations. M&A is picking up, both bolt-ons and also technology plays, and we are looking to make some things happen here in the second half. And finally, the market in total should be roughly the same, meaning global GDP second half, we don't expect to be materially different than the first half even though there's a lot of volatility in the world, as we all know about. But in total, we would expect the market to be either a headwind or a tailwind. So the fruits of our labor should show up, as we expect, in better results in the second half. So net, we like where we're positioned. We see a stronger second half, accelerating sales, as I said, mid- to upper-teens EPS delivery. We see another great full year delivery of 17% to 19% EPS. And probably most importantly, we like how we're positioned for the out years too. We've got a great business. We've got a lot of opportunity. We have the right team, and we like our plan. We believe the combination will allow us to consistently deliver against our 15% annual EPS objective post synergies. So with that, let me turn it back to Mike.
Michael J. Monahan:
Thanks, Doug. That concludes our formal remarks. Operator, would you please begin the question-and-answer period.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Mr. John McNulty from Crédit Suisse.
John P. McNulty - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
So with regard to Europe, we've seen some other companies putting up some growth in Europe, and it seems like you didn't have really much to speak of on it this quarter. But you do expect things to kind of get better in the back half of the year. So I guess, can you walk us through what may have been an issue -- what some of the issues were around growth this quarter? And then, I guess, what gives you the confidence that it's going to get better in the back half of the year? Are you already starting to see those trends improving already?
Douglas M. Baker:
Yes. Well, our Europe -- look, if we total our business in Europe, including Energy and all the other businesses, it was down 1% in the first quarter and up 2% in the second quarter. So we've seen some sequential improvement in our European business, and this is driven in large part by new businesses coming on, stabilization of the market and other efforts. And we expect Europe to get better in the third quarter and the fourth quarter still. So I think we're seeing some of the same trends that you're referring you might be seeing in other people's business. But our focus in Europe remains on profitable growth, cleaning up the business that we don't want to be in long term. So I would say we are also artificially covering some of the good work in Europe as we exit some businesses and do this really just on the P&L, not through any restructuring activity. So our Europe business, we think, is in good shape. We had another very strong margin performance against our goals, and so we are set up to at least deliver in the 100 to 150 basis points improvement for the year. You're going to be seeing run rates in the 7% margin -- EBIT margin basis by year-end, which is good, big improvement.
John P. McNulty - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
Okay. No, great. And then just as a follow-up, one area that we haven't seen much improvement in from the rest of the world and yet, you seem to be exhibiting some really solid strength is in the Lat Am side. So maybe if you can flush out kind of what's driving that and maybe where you're seeing it and some of the trends that you're seeing down there, would be great.
Douglas M. Baker:
Sure, yes. Latin America is a fairly strong story. So we're seeing it in our core Food & Beverage, Institutional businesses. We're seeing it in Water, where we've had, I think, strengthening of the management team down there through some internal promotions on the Water team. Energy remains strong as well. So it's pretty much across the board. And also, we've got strength in Brazil, which I think is relatively unusual versus some of the other reports that we've seen. So the team down there continues to execute. We also continue to make sure that we are doing the right thing around margin, simultaneous to top line growth, and we've seen improvement there as well.
Operator:
The next question comes from Mr. David Begleiter from Deutsche Bank.
David L. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division:
Doug, just on new business, very impressive first half results. In what businesses or areas is it really focused on, this 30% year-over-year improvement?
Douglas M. Baker:
It usually differs by quarter because, as you know, we go after large -- large pieces of business and they are a bit lumpy. I mean, in the first quarter, as we talked about, we had a lot of terrific success in both Institutional and F&B in particular. Water is pretty steady in both quarters, first and second. And Energy had a blowout second quarter, which we had anticipated and expected, which was one of the reasons that we've been forecasting a much stronger second half. And so I think the events that we believe were going to come through in the second quarter, leading into the second half, have come true, which is why we continue to forecast Energy, in particular, up in the 10% to 12% range for the second half. But all the businesses are going to benefit from the work that happened in the first half.
David L. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division:
And Doug, just on Energy, as it picks up to double-digit growth back half of the year, what happens to the margins? How much do they improve from Q2 levels?
Douglas M. Baker:
Well, they continue to improve in the second half simply because it's the bigger-volume half for Energy. So you've got volume driving some of it, but we believe the margin improvement that we're seeing is sustainable, and we have still synergies yet to be realized in that business. So we'll continue to work and drive margins as we go forward.
Operator:
The next question comes from Mr. Nate Brochmann from William Blair & Company.
Nathan Brochmann - William Blair & Company L.L.C., Research Division:
Doug, I wanted to talk -- just to follow up on that, just a little more specifically. I mean, granted I know things kind of were a little bit light of some of -- where you wanted to be in terms of the core growth in the first quarter. Could you talk a little more specifically what you've done in terms of either execution or with the sales force in terms of spurring those new business wins? And I know it's about the Ecolab playbook in terms of great new innovation and new products, but how you've you been able to accelerate that in terms of the outlook to get to that 5% to 6% for the second half of the year.
Douglas M. Baker:
Yes. Well, Nate, I would say, from the new business perspective, it's continued efforts, but we have expanded our corporate account team over the last couple of years, particularly in the WPS business but also in other businesses. We've strengthened -- we believe, further strengthened the leadership in our regional positions around the world in, say, Institutional and others. And we have clearly identified and targeted the largest players in the industries and put together specific plans to go after them. All this is helping contribute to very strong results. I would also say we didn't make a lot of noise. We continued to deliver quite well through the heavy integration periods. And while I can't go and point to exactly how that took a toll on any one thing, I don't think it took enough of a toll to make it onto a call. But certainly, the integration work lessened. We know we will have even more energy going towards offense, which, long term, is a key to driving value.
Nathan Brochmann - William Blair & Company L.L.C., Research Division:
That makes sense. I appreciate that. And then also, too, just thinking a little bit bigger picture and who knows where some of these rumblings ever go, but if there ends up getting to be broader across-the-board minimum wage hikes in some of your end market businesses, how do you think that impacts your business in terms of some of your customers' desires to automate things and reduce costs in terms of that maybe being a net benefit for you?
Douglas M. Baker:
Well, one of the obvious impacts would certainly be in the Institutional U.S. business, which continues to perform well. It grew 5% in second quarter, both the field sales and actual shipped basis. I would say if you look across the Institutional business, and I'm going to throw KAY in here and QSR as well, certainly, increased labor costs are going to be -- are going to have to be offset somewhere. And so in many cases, you can see our customers looking at how they would further mechanize either the kitchen operation or the front part of their operation, and they are working on those technologies. Now we've got a number of technologies that fit in with that thinking. Obviously, warewashing in QSR would be an obvious one. We would expect that, that will continue to have great uptake. That increases our sales in those restaurants, but is also a great deal financially for the restaurants to install and take the plunge from a capital or a lease standpoint. So those would be some of the examples, but this is going to be further and wider reaching than that. And typically, whenever there is cost pressure on the business, our philosophy, if you will, comes to bear and tends to prove quite valuable. So we like what we do, so our lower energy, lower water and in many cases, lower labor promise is the right promise in the eventuality that these rates get raised.
Operator:
The next question comes from Mr. Mike Ritzenthaler from Piper Jaffray.
Michael J. Ritzenthaler - Piper Jaffray Companies, Research Division:
A question on the margins in the Institutional segment and just looking at year-over-year flattish margins. Is that a function of incremental leverage in the emerging economies from better volumes offsetting decremental margins from lower sales in Europe? Or is there more to that story?
Douglas M. Baker:
Yes. Mostly I would just say it's timing. It's -- we have -- we've had some growth investments that we made in that business. A lot of them came disproportionately in the second quarter. So it had sort of a neutralizing effect on any volume lift. So margins were flat. We expect margins to be up for the year and up for the balance of the year.
Michael J. Ritzenthaler - Piper Jaffray Companies, Research Division:
Okay, that's helpful. And then for business outside the U.S. and Europe, there's a few headwinds that I'd be interested in some additional color on, such as the slate of sanctions on Russian businesses potentially affecting Energy, the difficulty doing business in Venezuela, the Argentine default. Maybe each one geography not huge in terms of revenues but kind of when you add it together.
Douglas M. Baker:
There's probably a longer list, right? You want to go to the Middle East? Yes, I would say I don't think Venezuela's any particularly new news. I mean, it's been a challenging situation for quite a while now. It's a situation we've been managing, and we think we'll continue to manage. I mean, I -- we forecast in the Q, like other people, we expect another devaluation. We go through those, and the team there has been very adept at then getting behind that and raising local prices in the bolivar. So that, we'll continue to manage. I would say Argentina is more similar to that than dissimilar. And we'll have to continue to manage our business there, and I think we're quick to do it. Russia's a harder one to predict. I don't know who can predict what's going to happen there. We certainly don't believe we can predict. So I think we've done all the smart things there. Our Russian business, for perspective, is probably at a run rate of around $200 million. So it's not a huge business in terms of impact globally, given our $14 billion-plus size, but it's an important market for us. And we've taken, I think, a lot of the smart steps to put us in a position to manage further sanctions and other things. And of course, we're going to comply with all laws and anything that may or may not happen as we go forward, but it's very tough to predict what that may -- might be. From an energy standpoint, it's not a huge piece of their business, but it's an important piece. And I think we'll just -- we're just ready to manage as wisely as we can given what unfolds there, and predicting what unfolds is quite difficult.
Operator:
The next question comes from Mr. Gary Bisbee from RBC Capital Markets.
Gary E. Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division:
This is the third straight quarter you've talked about very strong new business signings, and yet, we haven't seen real acceleration. I know you're expecting it, but what -- how do we think about the lag from new business sign -- when you sign new business and talk to us about it and when it begins to generate revenue? And is it very different from segment to segment? Or is it a similar lag?
Douglas M. Baker:
What we see, on average, it usually takes a couple of quarters to show up because -- so Institutional, we talked last quarter about a number of new pieces of business in Europe specifically. And a lot of that business was installed in the second quarter, but they still have to run out their old inventory. And you really don't see a lot of the activity until, really, even the quarter following install. So this is, I don't think, any great surprise. If we're -- I'll be surprised if we're not seeing some pickup from this in the third quarter, and we would expect to. We think we're already seeing it. So we would expect third quarter to be better than the second.
Gary E. Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division:
Okay. And then the follow-up. Both in the Institutional and Other Services businesses, you mentioned investments that offset the normal leverage and cost savings. What exactly are those investments? Is it salespeople? Or is it other stuff? And how quickly do you expect to earn a return on the investments?
Douglas M. Baker:
Yes. It's a little different by business, but headcount, both Institutional and also in Pest. Training in Pest, in particular, is we're arming the team to be even more specialized when they get after specific segments, and this is a lot of the work that's been helping drive Pest organic sales growth faster. And also, there have been some R&D investments that we've made. And I would just say it's more -- coincidental may not be the best word, but the timing is just the timing. We didn't try to manage it to make each quarter look beautiful. It's just the right time to get after some of these initiatives, and they'll be helpful in the second half.
Operator:
The next question comes from Dmitry Silversteyn from Longbow Research
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC:
Just wanted to ask a couple of questions and clarification. When you look at your Energy segment and the business, sort of the -- was the legacy Nalco business versus the Champion business that you're looking to globalize perhaps a little bit more aggressively, was there a difference in the growth rates, if you can discern at all, between those 2 businesses? Or is it more appropriate to talk about upstream, downstream growth rates?
Douglas M. Baker:
Well, I mean, there were some differences in the growth rates. You might recall, Champion had a huge second quarter last year, right as we were putting it together. So one of the challenges is Energy is going against a very big base number in the second quarter and still accelerate it versus the first. So Champion, that business is all upstream. We didn't take any of the downstream business, as you might recall. There are differences historically and we would expect, going forward, in terms of expected downstream growth rate versus upstream growth rate. Downstream has been much more in the upper-single-digit type growth rate, and we expect double digit from the upstream businesses, including WellChem.
Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC:
Okay. And then as a follow-up, on the Pest Elimination growth, was there much of a difference between sort of if you look at the domestic Pest Elimination, which is an older, I guess, more seasoned business, if you will, and the international Pest Elimination business, where there's still quite a bit of whitespace filling left to do?
Douglas M. Baker:
No, it's very similar. I mean, the U.S. growth rate was very similar to the global growth rate, 6%. So we've got -- that business has been steadily improving as we talked about. We had it in the shop not that long ago. It's come out and doing well.
Operator:
The next question comes from Mr. Edward Yang from Oppenheimer.
Edward H. Yang - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division:
CapEx picked up sequentially, and it was up 30% year-over-year. Was there anything to read into this? I think, Doug, you mentioned that you had made some heavier investments in the second quarter than in the past.
Douglas M. Baker:
Yes. I would chalk it up to timing. I mean, our CapEx forecast that we've given before and expected use of capital remains the same.
Edward H. Yang - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division:
Okay. And I think you launched Apex2 in North America and Europe at the start of the second quarter. What's the update in terms of adoption and contribution to growth?
Douglas M. Baker:
Apex has launched in Europe -- Apex2, and I would say it's exceeding targets. It's off to a very strong start, nearly 3,000 installs to date. We expected in total opportunity in the $60 million [ph] to $70 million [ph] range for Europe, and majority of that, but not all of that, would be incremental. So it's early. It's going well, and we expect it to continue to go well. So it's doing what we expect it to.
Operator:
The next question comes from Mr. David Ridley-Lane from Merrill Lynch.
David Ridley-Lane - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division:
Sure. I wanted to get an update on the run rate of cross-sell synergies in the second quarter and how Ecolab is tracking to the $150 million run rate target for the full year 2014.
Douglas M. Baker:
Yes. We're on pace. We'll look up a second quarter number if we have it. But I would say all the growth synergies that we expect are on pace for the year. So I guess, second quarter, we're seeing -- it was $119 million is what we saw. But I think the big number was we had forecast. That's the run rate right now. That we forecast we'd get to $0.5 billion -- I mean, $500 million right by the end of '16. We're tracking a little ahead of our forecasted pace.
David Ridley-Lane - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division:
Sure, okay. And then it's been almost a year since we heard about the enterprise selling initiative Ecolab was piloting in F&B and Water. I just wanted to get an update on maybe how many teams you have selling, if there's integrated solutions at the highest level with clients. And any thoughts about expanding that into other segments?
Douglas M. Baker:
Yes. We have corporate account people in both the Water business and in the Food & Beverage and Institutional business. A given enterprise will have a lead business and a lead division who takes responsibility for driving the total Ecolab portfolio in that customer. So I would tell you, virtually, every large customer in the industries that we serve has "a team lead" whose job it is to drive the complete enterprise sale at that customer. So with that said, I would say, as I've talked about in previous calls, we've had great success -- more success early than I think we anticipated. We continue to have very good success, hence the terrific numbers I shared with you earlier. I don't have a specific number of discrete teams whose only job is to go sell, say, F&B and Water together. It's really the corporate account team members on both sides. Both divisions are working together to go drive that.
Operator:
The next question comes from Mr. John Quealy from Canaccord Genuity.
John Quealy - Canaccord Genuity, Research Division:
First question, in Institution, you talked about QSR being solid again in the small and mid account area. Can you talk about is that foot traffic and volume? Or are there other underlying trends there? Like, for example, I know a year or so ago, Starbucks did convention opens and things like that. So if you could just characterize that a little bit more.
Douglas M. Baker:
Yes. A lot of it, I would just say, is new business, and the new business that was brought on by our QSR business was principally the medium and smaller-sized chains. This is good news because they tend to grow into larger chains over time, and it's where you'll probably see disproportionate unit growth going forward. That was the single biggest driver, but we do see different chains adding food products, be it wings or other moves, which tend to change the cleaning needs in a given environment and then also then drives additional products in the unit simultaneously. But the biggest move was new business.
John Quealy - Canaccord Genuity, Research Division:
Okay, great. And then a broader one-off question. I know the DOT has suggested new regulations for oil transportation by rail specifically on some of the heavy stuff out of Canada. I know this is early, and I know this is comment periods and all this. Are you working with some of your heavy oil clients about different formulations of what that could look like? And give us any characterization there, that would be helpful.
Douglas M. Baker:
I would say the transportation of oil via KEYSTONE pipeline, if you don't build the pipeline, you're going to end up having the stuff shipped on rails. And I think there's a realization that, that may not be the best alternative -- I mean, the best answer because it creates risk, too. So everybody wants to manage one risk, and they forget about the other risk that they got to deal with. I don't have any great -- I would tell you shipping heavy oil is a little safer than shipping light oil, if you want to get down to it. We work with our customers on any of these issues. I think it's too early to say exactly how this is going to go play out.
Operator:
The next question comes from Mr. Laurence Alexander from Jefferies.
Laurence Alexander - Jefferies LLC, Research Division:
Two questions around the acceleration that you're seeing across your business. Do you see this as a multiyear surge? Or do you need an end market recovery to maintain it? And secondly, given the acceleration that you're seeing, has the underlying growth algorithm in terms of how many salespeople you need to hire to maintain the growth, has that changed? Or should we see a step up in hiring practices over the next 12 to 18 months?
Douglas M. Baker:
Yes. Well, let's start with the formula or the algorithm question first. I don't think it's changed. We have been hiring sales team members this first half and have a couple of hundred more than we did at the start of the year. So it's a couple percent more. But if you annualize it, it starts turning into 4%, if we continue on this pace. So we are investing in the business while growing margins and doing the other things that we're expected to do. I would say, look, we would benefit by an economic recovery. I don't think it's needed for us to get into the lower end of our 6% to 8% organic range that we've talked about nor is it needed to add the 2 to 3 extra points from M&A. But for us to play around the top of that range, yes, I think you're going to ultimately need to see some uptick in the underlying economy. The way the economy's working right now, which is below 2 digits globally, I think we can get into the 6% -- about 6%, maybe up to 7%, but it can be very difficult to get to the 8%, 8%-plus range.
Operator:
The next question comes from Mr. John Roberts from UBS.
Bill Carroll - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
This is Bill Carroll on for John. Can you remind us of your capital allocation priorities, particularly with respect to debt reduction? You mentioned a desire to get back to A credit rating. So what's your timing for getting the credit metrics there in light of using free cash flow for share buybacks and bolt-on acquisitions as well?
Douglas M. Baker:
Yes. I would say our uses of cash have not changed materially, with the exception of the addition of some debt paydown. The debt paydown is about $300 million. It's proceeding. It's going to occur this year. Following that, we expect our net debt-to-EBITDA ratio to be low-2s by the end of the year and hitting the 2 range sometime early next year. As we go forward, we continue to grow EBITDA. So following that, I think we've said that things that are on the table, like additional share repurchase and/or more aggressive M&A, they tend to complement each other. They will end up to be, I would say, a bigger EPS driver than they have been the last couple of years. And of course, I'm excluding the big deals that we did with Nalco and Champion in that conversation.
Bill Carroll - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
Okay. And another one on Water. What are your capabilities and appetite for pursuing opportunities in areas that you're not involved with now, like treating municipal water or agricultural processing?
Douglas M. Baker:
Yes. I would say we do treat some municipal water systems today, had historically. We'll continue to serve that business as long as we can do it in a way that's reasonably profitable moving forward. It is not our target market by any stretch. I would say, look, there's a lot of places in Water that we see additional opportunity moving forward. Certainly, our Energy team is looking and getting after additional opportunities in their space using water technologies that are developed corporately. But we also see other opportunities, both in the pure water space and in the Institutional F&B and other spaces. We'll continue to expand our capabilities as we move forward. I would say that's our formula. We want to grow the business every year. We want to expand the margins. But just as importantly, we want to expand the opportunities every year so we never run into a wall and get into a situation where we are, if you will, at the end of a realistic share gain period. We chase over $100 billion today. We think we've got about a 13, 14 share, and we expect that $100 billion opportunity to grow as we look at new arenas. One of the areas we're going to be more aggressive in is going after desal, not inventing the technology but serving the installed desal units, be them -- be they the boil the ocean units or the membrane units. Either one we will get after, there are big service opportunities there. So there are plenty of opportunities in Water. Our Water business is performing well. Second quarter, if you take away the Paper business and the business that we are exiting, our Water grew at 7%. So it's showing continued sequential improvement as we said it would, and we're excited about the opportunities in front of us.
Operator:
The next question comes from P.J. Juvekar from Citi.
P. J. Juvekar - Citigroup Inc, Research Division:
Doug, looking back, these Nalco and Champion acquisitions were very timely. But your core Institutional business really hasn't picked up steam yet. Can you comment on what's holding it back? Is it more on the hospitality side? Or is it more on the restaurant side?
Douglas M. Baker:
Yes. I would say it's more on the Europe side. I would say you've got to recognize we're now -- what we're reporting in Institutional isn't just U.S. business. We're reporting the global results for Institutional. If you went back pre-Nalco acquisition, because we hadn't globalized Institutional yet, we would have -- with or without the Nalco merger, by the way, but we were really reporting, principally, U.S. Institutional numbers. I said earlier, the U.S. Institutional number for this quarter was 5% growth. And we've had -- last quarter was 5% underlying growth, as this quarter was, but I think 3% reported. We said there was a bit of a take-down in terms of inventories. This quarter, both numbers were 5%, 5% consumption, 5% shipped. And so I think the Institutional business as it's historically been reported is very consistent with where it's been, and this is in spite of, I think, difficulties in that market. Restaurant traffic continues to be soft, in decline. Lodging has been strong throughout this period once it recovered from the recession. What we're really working on doing is getting the business right in the other geographies. And so really, the particular hole that we have is Europe. So Europe for that quarter was down, like, negative 4% in the second quarter, and it was a series of onetimers. Some of them we did purposefully. Some just happened to fall into this quarter. But we're quite confident that we are now going to see Europe grow in Institutional for the next couple of quarters. So I think Institutional is going to be fine. Some of this we just took on, went after the business. You know the priority in Europe hasn't been on growth, it's been getting on the margins right. Our Europe Institutional business now makes money. It didn't every quarter previously, and it is now consistently. And now we got to get the top line moving. And their efforts around new business, the new technology they're introducing, hence the earlier Apex question and answer, all are, I think, showing the right trends. So Institutional, we think, will be climbing back on a global basis in the 5-plus percent type growth business here relatively soon.
P. J. Juvekar - Citigroup Inc, Research Division:
And then, secondly, post Champion, can you size for us the revenues and profitability in your upstream and downstream businesses in Energy?
Douglas M. Baker:
Well, I -- if you're asking on Champion per se, we can't -- we can no longer split out the Champion business from the legacy Nalco Energy business just by nature of the type of integration that we've gone under, which is why we even handled the restatement. We're trying to give you guys a picture of what's happening organically. I would say, overall, that business performed. So we would expect, going forward, we're going to continue to have very strong results in WellChem, which is a combined business of the 2, Nalco and Champion. We expect OFC to accelerate. It's going to be the big beneficiary of a number of the new businesses -- or the new business opportunities that we've secured in the second quarter. And downstream has been performing solidly, let's say, in the U.S. and around the world, and we would expect that to continue to grow solidly. But really Champion brought both WellChem assets and OFC assets, 0 downstream assets.
Operator:
The next question comes from Mr. Bob Koort from Goldman Sachs.
Brian Maguire - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
It's Brian Maguire on for Bob today. Doug, I appreciate the comments on sources of the growth rate acceleration in the second quarter, too, that I was maybe surprised not to hear some weather normalization. I would have thought that maybe that helped. And also just curious to hear, given the strength in Latin America and Brazil you cited, any material benefit from the World Cup there. Or any potential hangover there?
Douglas M. Baker:
Well, I can't speak to the individual's hangover status. I can -- there wasn't a huge uptick in Brazil Institutional for World Cup. Interestingly, we rarely see one. You host the Olympics every other year. We tend to have a lot of that business or serve a lot of the partners who serve that business. We certainly are in most cities of the world. We typically don't see monstrous uptick in our business during those events, and we saw the same thing in Brazil. Simply because there's kind of a trade of influx of tourist dollars, somewhat. Those who live there tend to stay out of restaurants and others because think it turns into a bit of a hassle. So anyway, no big news there. I think the balance, I don't expect -- we don't really worry about that. These events happen all the time. So even if you did see a big lift -- these people are traveling from somewhere and they're spending their dollars in one city and not the other, we're in 170-plus countries, we tend not to focus on that stuff too much.
Brian Maguire - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
Okay. And just on Energy. There have been some upstream project delays we've been kind of hearing about or tracking. Just any change in timeline on projects, any slippages there that you're seeing any impact from?
Douglas M. Baker:
Well, we certainly had projects that were part of slip, but our forecast takes all that into account. And so the forecast that we've given for the second half is based on data that we know right now. So obviously, if something materially slipped in September, we may talk to you about it in the next call. But we don't anticipate that. All the projects we're on, we think we've got a good handle on.
Operator:
The next question comes from Shlomo Rosenbaum from Stifel.
Shlomo H. Rosenbaum - Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Research Division:
Could you just give us a little bit more detail on what's going on with Healthcare? It sounds like you guys are expecting maybe a modest pickup in the second half, but then being positioned to be a lot better in 2015. Given what we've seen over in the hospitals for the last many years, could you talk a little bit about the investments in innovation and what you're doing over there? And any thought as to what's going behind the expectation for the pickup there?
Douglas M. Baker:
Yes. Last call, we talked Healthcare and basically said we're working on a couple of areas, certainly around innovation, how we're going to position our technology and how we're going to go sell bundled programs even more effectively going forward. I'd say that work is progressing nicely. But we didn't -- we basically tried to set an expectation that you're not going to see a material change in growth rates until probably early next year or end of this year. With that said, the business isn't off the hook nor do they consider themselves off the hook. They improved first quarter to second quarter. We had 3% growth this quarter. We aren't shooting off flares, but it's certainly better than first quarter. And I think the team's on the issues they need to be on. I like the work that they're doing. We have, I think, a good track record of taking businesses, and sometimes, you've got to retool. We aren't asking for any forgiveness on quarterly expectations or overall company growth rate or anything like that. We've just got -- Healthcare, we think we can make some tweaks to put this business in a position to grow high-single digits and do the things that we expect it to do going forward.
Shlomo H. Rosenbaum - Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Research Division:
Just as a follow-up, based on what you're doing over there, you just mentioned high-single digits is a potential, what's a realistic -- do you think kind of near term, say, 2015 to '16 type of thought, you can get back to this mid-single digits on a regular basis sound realistic? Or what do you think about that?
Douglas M. Baker:
Yes. Certainly, that would be our expectation, that we think the Healthcare business and particularly the part of the Healthcare business we're in should be a upper-single-digit growth business for us. So I guess, yes.
Operator:
The next question comes from Rosemarie Morbelli from Gabelli & Company.
Rosemarie J. Morbelli - G. Research, Inc.:
I was just wondering, Doug, if you have seen recently a more competitive change, especially in Europe, where your main competitor is pushing price increases or so they say. Is that helping you? Are you seeing them take business or lose business because of that particular change in the way they are conducting business?
Douglas M. Baker:
Yes. I would say we haven't seen a material change in the way any of our competitors are approaching the business, specifically in Europe, and I guess, specifically in Institutional was your reference. I'm not sure that we would always see that right away anyway. So I don't know exactly what they're doing. But if you're going to raise prices, you're going to do it with your existing customers, not necessarily with new ones. And so that wouldn't be as visible to us anyway.
Rosemarie J. Morbelli - G. Research, Inc.:
And are you able to raise prices in Europe as you are now focusing on growth? Or is growth actually not conducive to raising price?
Douglas M. Baker:
Well, there's always a trade-off, but no, we are getting price in Europe. We're getting price, frankly, everywhere. I mean, not huge amounts. I would say, the traditional, on average, 1 point across the globe, which is I think what we had forecast we expected, and that's about where we are. I would also say that, that never includes the mix changes. So when we talked the Apex launch in Europe, when we trade out old solids for new solids, we do it at a much higher price, and that is not reflected in the 1 point of pricing I spoke about, which was the global number.
Operator:
The next question comes from Mr. Andy Wittmann from Baird.
Andrew J. Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division:
Doug, just your comments on M&A and bolt-on M&A kind of heating up, that's there's more going on there. What should investors be looking for in terms of where you think that -- in terms of total dollar deployment towards M&A could be maybe in the next year? You said it was going to be higher. I mean, is this hundreds of millions? Is it billions? What kind of order of magnitude do you think we could be looking at here?
Douglas M. Baker:
Yes. Well, I guess, I signaled that there's no really huge targets on the horizon for us simply because it's not really as much an appetite challenge as it is just, frankly, a good fit challenge. So as a result, you're talking hundreds of millions, not billions.
Andrew J. Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division:
Got you. And then just a quick follow-up here. This quarter, for the first time in a long time, we've seen GAAP EPS and adjusted EPS starting to converge a little bit more than we've seen. Is this a pattern that you think we can continue to expect going forward? Or do you think that the restructuring charges and other things are going to continue to -- is this more of an anomaly or something that we should expect to go forward?
Douglas M. Baker:
Well, I mean, it's both. I would say you'll see continued convergence. I don't think -- the $0.01 delta that we had this year of $1.02 and $1.03, part was because we had a legal settlement that was in our favor in there, too. So unless I can convince our GC to deliver that every quarter, which would be terrific, you should put that in your report, we don't expect that every quarter. So -- but I think you'll see, starting 2015 and on, yes, we expect really pretty much they're the same.
Operator:
The final question comes from Mr. Mike Harrison from First Analysis.
Michael J. Harrison - First Analysis Securities Corporation, Research Division:
Doug, can you talk a little bit about how the Champion integration is going now that it's been in the fold for a little over a year? And I'm speaking specifically from a cultural standpoint, where Champion may have had a different approach to customer service as opposed to the Nalco approach. Have you had any key customer or personnel losses? And if so, how are you handling those?
Douglas M. Baker:
Yes. Well, I would say, on balance and in total, I think the integration's going about as well as you could hope for. So I'd give you stats. I guess field level attrition is lower than it was premerger, so that's good news. Have we lost anybody? Certainly, but that's because this is a hot business, and both companies were losing people before the merger, and they've lost some people post merger. And guess what? We've taken some people, too. So that's -- I don't think there's any big news there. Customers, we haven't lost any customer that we can really identify. As a consequence of this, we had some -- a couple customers that I would say we had on our concern list, particularly going into due diligence, and that business has all stayed. We've had a number of the large players who were buying from both increase their share with us post merger. So all of that, I think, has gone quite well. You mentioned earlier a different approach from service. I would say, as I think we did very successfully when we brought Ecolab and Nalco together, the goal here was to take good ideas wherever they come from and not be just convinced that however you were running it before was the best way. So some of the customer service methodology that we've adopted came with Champion. Particularly in some of the North American fields and how we get after and serve and deliver product was really, what I would say, is much more of a Champion model than it was the previous Nalco model because we think it was a smarter way to go into business. There are other examples, too. And as we've talked in the Nalco-Ecolab merger overall, there's been plenty of things that we've adopted, I would say, from legacy Nalco, safety programs, onboarding of people programs. And certainly, our financial modeling and I would say, discipline around business reviews we've adopted from Ecolab and thrown across all the businesses. So I think that's the only way you can really have a successful merger. If you buy a company, you're buying a lot of know-how. And if you wipe out all the know-how with the thought that whatever you were doing must be superior, you're going to lose value in -- by approaching it that way.
Michael J. Harrison - First Analysis Securities Corporation, Research Division:
And then just in terms of the Asia Pacific market in Institutional, are we starting to see a pickup in places like China as those markets are getting a little bit more mature in terms of restaurants and hotels per capita? Or are you still pretty early on that curve?
Douglas M. Baker:
Well, I'd say yes and yes. We are seeing in China, in particular, continued strong growth in the Institutional business really across the portfolio, and I'd say it's very early days there. So you've got still fairly uneven situations. You can go to Shanghai, and it's one of the most sophisticated cities in the world. You don't have to travel far before it becomes, let's just say, less sophisticated. And as that economy -- as GDP grows, as people's incomes grow, we would expect that we would see the same evolution in foodservice, lodging, as we've seen in the other economies that have gone through the same growth curve. So we're quite excited about the long-term potential there, and we're seeing it in growth rates right now that are quite attractive.
Operator:
At this time, I'd like to turn the call back over to Mr. Monahan for closing comments.
Michael J. Monahan:
Thank you. That wraps up our second quarter conference call. This conference call and associated slides will be available for replay on our website. Thanks, everyone, for your time and participation. Our best wishes for the rest of the day.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference. At this time, all participants may disconnect.
Executives:
Michael J. Monahan – Senior Vice President-External Relations Douglas M. Baker, Jr. – Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Analysts:
Nate Brochmann – William Blair & Company L.L.C. Gary E. Bisbee – RBC Capital Markets, LLC John P. McNulty – Credit Suisse Securities LLC Mike Ritzenthaler – Piper Jaffray & Co John E. Roberts – UBS Securities LLC David Ridley-Lane – Bank of America Merrill Lynch John S. Quealy – Canaccord Genuity, Inc. Eric B. Petrie – Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Michael J. Harrison - First Analysis Securities Corporation Andrew J. Wittmann – Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. Dmitry Silversteyn – Longbow Research LLC Rosemarie J. Morbelli – Gabelli & Company Shlomo H. Rosenbaum – Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc Edward H. Yang – Oppenheimer & Co., Inc.
Operator:
Welcome and thank you for standing by. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode (Operator Instructions). Welcome to the Ecolab First Quarter 2014 Earnings Release Conference Call. After the presentation we will conduct the question-and-answer session (Operator Instructions). This call is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. Now, I’d like to turn the call over to Mr. Michael Monahan, Senior Vice President, External Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Michael J. Monahan:
Thank you. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Ecolab's first quarter conference call. With me today is Doug Baker, Ecolab's Chairman and CEO. A copy of our earnings release and the accompanying slides referenced in this teleconference are available on Ecolab's website at ecolab.com/investor. Please take a moment to read the cautionary statements on Slide 2, stating that this teleconference and the slides include estimates of future performance. These are forward-looking statements, and actual results could differ materially from those projected. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are discussed in the section of our most recent Form 10-K under Item 1A, Risk Factors, in our first quarter earnings release and on Slide 2. We also refer you to the supplemental diluted earnings per share information in the release. Starting with an overview in Slide 3, we delivered strong results from the first quarter. We leveraged solid sales volume growth, pricing and our synergy and cost efficiency work to substantially improve our acquisition adjusted operating margins and produce a very strong adjusted earnings per share increase. Looking ahead, we expect to continue to outperform our market and show outstanding 16% to 21% earnings gains in the second quarter. And strong upper teens EPS growth for the full year as good sales growth, appropriate pricing, innovation, synergies and margin leverage more than offset mixed markets. Moving to some highlights from the first quarter and as discussed in our press release, reported first quarter earnings per share were $0.62, on an adjusted basis, excluding special gains and charges and discrete tax items for both years, first quarter 2014 earnings per share increased a very strong 23% to a record $0.74. The adjusted earnings per share growth was driven by volume and pricing, new products, account gains, synergies, cost savings actions and the Champion acquisition. We enjoyed strong growth in our Specialty, Food & Beverage and Energy businesses. Latin America led the regional growth once again and was bolstered by strong gains in Asia Pacific and good growth in North America. These and other increases were leveraged by good margin expansion. We continue to be aggressive, focusing on top line growth. We are emphasizing our innovative product and service strengths, as well as our wide range of effective solutions to help customers get better results and lower operating costs. And through these drive new account gains across all of our customer segments. We also continue to implement appropriate price increases to help offset higher costs and investments in our business. We remain focused on expanding our margins, emphasizing productivity and efficiency improvements to help increased profitability as well as drive merger synergies. We also continue to make investments in key growth businesses to sustain our technology in sales and service leadership. We remain on plan for achieving our Nalco and Champion synergy targets. And our Europe margins are on track for further strong expansions. Looking ahead, while mixed trends in our markets present ongoing challenges, we look for the second quarter to show continued attractive sales gains and margin improvements. Second quarter adjusted EPS is expected to increase an outstanding 16% to 21% to a $1, $1.04 range and compare with last year’s adjusted EPS of $0.86. Business growth and the benefits from synergies and cost reductions should more than offset lackluster economic trends. In addition, the quarter will compare against a strong 19% adjusted EPS gain in last year’s second quarter. For the full year 2014, we continue to look for a very strong 16% to 19% increase to the $4.10 to $4.20 range. In summary, our first quarter performed very well and we expect the second quarter and full year 2014 to also show very strong earnings growth as we more than offset challenging economic condition, while we make the key investments to drive superior results this year as well as for the future. Slide 4 shows our first quarter results both as reported and with adjustments for special gains and charges, while Slide 5 shows our sales growth detail. Please note as detailed in the press release, to be effective in this quarter we made immaterial changes to our reportable segments. They had no impact on our consolidated sales or operating income. The impact of these changes on 2012 and 2013 results are shown in the appendix slides and the following comments regarding both our 2013 and 2014 first quarter results include these changes. Ecolab's consolidated fixed currency sales for the first quarter increased 18%. Acquisition-adjusted fixed currency sales rose 5%. Looking at the growth components, volume and mix increased 4%, pricing rose 1%, acquisitions and divestitures were 14% and currency was a negative 2%. Reported fixed currency sales for the Global Industrial segment rose 3%. The net impact of acquisitions and divestitures on the segment was not significant. First quarter reported fixed currency Global Food & Beverage sales increased 5%. Acquisition-adjusted first quarter fixed currency sales grew 4%. Growth was led by beverage and brewing, dairy and agri, which more than offset modestly lower sales in the weak protein market. Regionally, we enjoyed strong results in Latin America and Asia-Pacific with moderate growth led by share gains in the other regions. Food & Beverage continues to benefit from its total plant assurance approach to customers in which we combine our industry-leading Cleaning & Sanitizing, water treatment and pest elimination capabilities to deliver improved food safety results, lower operating costs and better product quality assurance for customers. This has enabled us to win business with key global customers and offset sluggish conditions in several of our regional markets. Looking ahead, we expect further good organic sales growth in the second quarter as we develop further benefits from growth synergies, better customer penetration and new business capture as well as leverage our innovation pipeline, including the introduction of 3D TRASAR for clean-in-place systems and Food & Beverage plans in the second half. Fixed currency Water sales increased 4%. Gains were led by good growth in the heavy, light and mining businesses. Regionally, we saw a strong growth in Latin America, good gains in Asia Pacific, modest increases in North America and flat EMEA results. We continue to drive market penetration with innovative solutions to optimize water usage using our powerful 3D TRASAR technologies. We are introducing 3D TRASAR for hotel and other institutional cooling systems in the second quarter utilizing salt chemistry in advanced dispensing, varying a leading technology from both Ecolab and Nalco in a premium customer solution. We are focused on building our corporate account and enterprise sales team delivering our growth synergies and improving product innovation to drive revenues. We expect to show another good gain in the second quarter as better growth in our heavy, light and mining businesses outperform mixed end-markets. Fixed currency sales for Paper increased 3%. Acquisition adjusted first quarter fixed currency sales were up 1%. We saw a double-digit growth in Latin America, modest growth in Asia Pacific and declines in EMEA and North America, resulting from continued low plant utilization and customer closures. We expect Paper to show modest sales growth in the second quarter as new business and technology penetration offset the challenging paper market conditions. Fixed currency sales for the Global Institutional segment rose 3%. Turning to the businesses that makeup the segment, fixed currency sales for the Institutional business grew 3% in the first quarter. Institutional's end markets remain subdued with modest growth in global lodging room demand and still challenging foodservice foot traffic across North America and Europe. Looking at regional sales trends, Latin America continued to post strong sales growth. North America showed good gains while Asia Pacific saw a moderate growth and Europe sales were up slightly. Sales initiatives targeting new accounts and effective product and service programs around our core segments continue to lead our results. We leveraged our global technology through the rollout of our next-generation warewashing platform Apex2 in Europe. To drive growth in the future and improve on our industry leadership position, we remain focused on executing global sales initiative, globalizing core competencies and introducing product innovations that delivers increased value with solutions that reduce water, energy and labor costs while also increasing our customer intimacy through outstanding sales and service execution. We’re also making further investments in field technology to enhance execution in sales and service and we have better aligned our local sales team efforts around our global value proposition. Longer-term, our new global institutional structure is helping to accelerate global deployments of our innovation, technology and training, which we expect will help improve growth by driving better market penetration and new account gains. We look for second quarter institutional business sales to improve as global sales initiatives progress and continued aggressive efforts to outperform challenging markets yield better growth in the second quarter and over the balance of the year. First quarter sales for specialty grew 9% in fixed currencies. Quick service sales were strong increasing double-digits as we enjoyed steady growth from both large and small customers. New accounts along with increased service coverage and additional solutions for customers that drive their operating efficiency and food safety, leveraged generally modest industry trends. Regionally, the U.S. and Latin America recorded solid gains. Europe saw good growth from new accounts and additional customer solutions while Asia Pacific benefited from good quick service foot traffic growth. The food retail business increased modestly in the first quarter benefitting from customer additions, new products and increased penetration. We look for a good sales growth again in the second quarter and especially works to deliver another solid performance in 2014. Fixed currency healthcare sales decreased 1%, new account growth, better penetration and new product introductions were more than offset by continued weak surgical and in-patient hospital trends and uncertainty in hospital buying decisions in the U.S. healthcare market. Regionally, North America sales declined while Europe sales rose moderately. To grow sales in this challenging environment, we have increased our focus on corporate accounts and our integrated value proposition and continue to strategically broaden our product lines, rolling out new hand care products, new infection barriers and surface disinfectants. We expect healthcare sales to increase in the second quarter as account gains and new product launches in both North America and Europe more than offset a continued weak healthcare market. Reported fixed currency Energy segment sales grew 78%. Acquisition adjusted global energy fixed currency sales rose 8%. Our upstream production business saw a good growth in the first quarter led by strong international performance and deepwater results. Downstream business sales were good as North America refining improved and we gain market share. Looking ahead we expect acquisition adjusted Energy segment sales to show similar growth in the second quarter. We look for stronger second half and new business drives better growth and delivers full year 2014 acquisition adjusted sales growth in the 10% range. Sales for other segment increased 4%. Fixed currency Pest sales increased 3% in the first quarter. We enjoyed good growth in food & beverage, healthcare and restaurants. Regionally, we enjoyed double-digit growth in Asia Pacific and good gains in both North America and Latin America. However, Europe sales declined reflecting the timing of service calls that should be made up in the second quarter. We continue to drive market penetration with innovative service offerings and technologies including the global protect programs, Bed Bug Assurance, STEALTH Fly Station, STEALTH Fusion and expanding solution offerings. We expect Pest sales to show better growth in the second quarter led by gains in all markets. Equipment Care sales grew 8% in the first quarter. New account sales, better penetration, pricing actions and improved technician capacity and productivity drove strong service revenue growth. Parts sales were off slightly. We continue to see good results for both chain account and headquarter relationships, as well as by our work to drive sales through their regional and franchise organizations. We expect Equipment Care to show further strong gains in the second quarter as continued good service trends, pricing initiatives, improved parts sales and streamlined operations benefit results. Slide 6 of our presentation shows selected income statement items. First quarter gross margins were 45.5%, when adjusted for acquisitions and special charges, first quarter 2014 gross margins were 45.8%, 50 basis points above last year. Volume and pricing gains, as well as merger synergies and cost efficiencies more than offset the business impact of higher energy sales, which on average, have a lower gross margin when compared with our other businesses. SG&A expenses represented 34.1% of our first quarter sales. When adjusted for acquisitions, the SG&A ratio improved 70 basis points versus last year. The improvement reflected sales gains and cost-savings efforts, including merger synergies, as well as the mix of higher energy sales, which on average, have lower SG&A ratio when compared with our other businesses. Consolidated operating income margins were 10.5%. When adjusted for acquisitions and special charges, fixed currency operating income margins were 11.6%, rising 120 basis points over last year’s comparable margins. Fixed currency operating income for global industrial increased 7%, with margins up 40 basis points. Volume gains, pricing, and cost synergies and efficiencies led the gain. Fixed currency operating income for Global Institutional increased 7% with margins up 60 basis points. Pricing, volume gains and cost efficiencies drove the increase. Reported Global Energy fixed currency operating income increased 83%. Acquisition adjusted Global Energy operating income increased 36% in fixed currencies and acquisition adjusted margins expanded 270 basis points, led by the volume gain synergies, operating leverage and pricing. Fixed currency operating income for the other segment increased 2%. Improved operating results were offset by investments in the field sales force and field technologies. The adjusted tax rate was 27.9% in the first quarter 2014, when compared with 28.2% in the same period last year. This improved tax rate was the result of favorable geographic income mix, which more than offset the cost of the expired U.S. Research & Development tax credit. Please note our tax rate assumptions for the full year assume passage of the R&D tax credit in the fourth quarter. We repurchased approximately 2 million shares during the quarter. The net of this performance is that Ecolab reported first quarter diluted earnings per share of $0.62 compared with $0.53 reported a year ago. When adjusted for special gains and charges and discrete tax items in both years, adjusted earnings increased 23% to $0.74 when compared with $0.60 earned a year ago. Turning to Slide 7 and looking at Ecolab’s balance sheet. Net debt to total capital was 49%. Looking ahead and as outlined in Slide 8, we continue to take aggressive actions to drive both our top and bottom lines. We are expanding our market share and customer penetration among major accounts and leveraging our positions in key growth markets in food, water, energy and healthcare as we work to offset continued challenging market conditions and unfavorable currency exchange rates, which could negatively impact sales by a percentage point or two in 2014. We expect to show good acquisition-adjusted sales growth and margin expansion driven by innovation, pricing, merger synergies and better operating efficiencies. We expect to deliver on these aggressive goals while building growth for our future. We expect adjusted second quarter 2014 diluted earnings per share to increase an outstanding 16% to 21% to the $1.00 to $1.04 range. Further, the second quarter will also compare against a very strong period last year when adjusted earnings per share rose 19% to $0.86. We continue to look for full year 2014 to show very strong growth as adjusted earnings per share are expected to increase 16% to 19% to the $4.10 to $4.20 range. We once again delivered on our forecast in the first quarter with a solid sales gain and continued margin improvement while offsetting market challenges and investing in our future. We look for further solid acquisition-adjusted sales growth and continued double-digit profit gains in the second quarter, as well as for the full year 2014 as we work to deliver yet another strong year and build for our future. A final note before we start Q&A. We plan to hold our annual tour of our booth at the National Restaurant Association Show in Chicago on May 19. If you have any questions, please contact my office. That concludes our formal remarks. Operator, please begin the question-and-answer period.
Operator:
Thank you. We’ll now being the question-and-answer portion. (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Nate Brochmann from William Blair & Company. Your line is now open.
Nate Brochmann – William Blair & Company L.L.C.:
Good afternoon, everyone. I was wondering – I know you hit on it briefly and I know that end markets are pretty mixed across the board, but I was wondering if you could give us a little bit more of a regional update in terms of some specifics, in terms of what you are seeing, in terms of traffic or improvement in Europe, North America and it was nice for you guys to mention too Asia picking up a little bit? Just wondering if you could tell us a little bit more in terms of what you are seeing there and where the trends are.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr.:
Yes, Nate, this is Doug. I guess you are referring to restaurant traffic?
Nate Brochmann – William Blair & Company L.L.C.:
For the most part, yes.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr.:
I would say, our business – traffic still is somewhat impaired in the U.S. Our business, if you look at underlying business in the U.S. Institutional field sales is in the 5% range, which is pretty consistent with how it's been running last few quarters. We continue to do a very good job driving new business.
:
Asia is getting better. Latin America continues to be very solid and strong. So I would say the economy this year is predicted to improve. We still feel that’s true. I think the first quarter was a little tough to read particularly in the U.S. because of the weather.
Nate Brochmann – William Blair & Company L.L.C.:
Okay. Then just a follow-up on that in terms of the improvement over in Europe. Is part of that now your ability to be able to focus a little bit more on the top line and growth as we have some of the transformational projects kind of behind us or do you think that is just the overall economic improvement coming off the bottom?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr.: : :
Nate Brochmann – William Blair & Company L.L.C.:
That’s great. Thank you very much.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr.:
Okay.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Gary Bisbee of RBC Capital. Your line is now open.
Gary E. Bisbee – RBC Capital Markets, LLC:
Coming out of the fourth quarter fall, all of the commentary was very positive about new business wins and pipeline and all of that type of stuff and then we saw the growth rates slow quite a bit in the industrial and institutional businesses. Can you do two things? Number one, quantify weather impact if that is possible? And number two, just give us some more color on you talked about account wins here in Europe being good and you talked about it in the back half of last year overall. But when do we start seeing that flow through into better revenue growth? Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr.:
:
First, if you look at Energy, Energy activity, new business activity picked up particularly in the fourth quarter moving to first quarter. That takes several months at minimum to start showing up which is why as Mike mentioned in his formal remarks at front reflect confidence, that Energy well it’s going to run at high single-digits in the first half, is going to run double-digits in the second half, and our math suggests right now end the year at double-digits.
:
So we feel confident. Energy is on track doing what it needs to do and will be in a range of what we’ve always talked about which is for the double-digit business. The other businesses, the institutional businesses, the industrial businesses are all forecasting across the board, stronger growth as we go through the year. And if you look at underneath all of these, they are strengthening. We had a record first quarter new business. The quarter was plus 20% versus the prior two quarters in terms of net new business sold. So it was a quite dramatic increase in terms of productivity from new business and we know that translates into sales. So for the year we feel pretty confident that we will be accelerating, picking up and hanging in the 6% to 8% organic growth rate that we talk about in total.
:
So we feel confident. Energy is on track doing what it needs to do and will be in a range of what we’ve always talked about which is for the double-digit business. The other businesses, the institutional businesses, the industrial businesses are all forecasting across the board, stronger growth as we go through the year. And if you look at underneath all of these, they are strengthening. We had a record first quarter new business. The quarter was plus 20% versus the prior two quarters in terms of net new business sold. So it was a quite dramatic increase in terms of productivity from new business and we know that translates into sales. So for the year we feel pretty confident that we will be accelerating, picking up and hanging in the 6% to 8% organic growth rate that we talk about in total.
:
So we feel confident. Energy is on track doing what it needs to do and will be in a range of what we’ve always talked about which is for the double-digit business. The other businesses, the institutional businesses, the industrial businesses are all forecasting across the board, stronger growth as we go through the year. And if you look at underneath all of these, they are strengthening. We had a record first quarter new business. The quarter was plus 20% versus the prior two quarters in terms of net new business sold. So it was a quite dramatic increase in terms of productivity from new business and we know that translates into sales. So for the year we feel pretty confident that we will be accelerating, picking up and hanging in the 6% to 8% organic growth rate that we talk about in total.
Gary E. Bisbee – RBC Capital Markets, LLC:
That’s great. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from John McNulty of Suisse. Your line is now open.
John P. McNulty – Credit Suisse Securities LLC:
Yes. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. So, it sounds like you’re looking have a relatively large launch on 3D TRASAR side in an F&B and some other parts of the business that haven’t seen it before. I guess, how should we be thinking about what that may do to the growth, looking out over the next year or two?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr.:
We’ve been in test for a while, we’re now rolling. Industrial launches always take a bit longer, i.e. to get to the peak average sales that we look for. I would say our early results, particularly in the industrial area has been very, very strong. And so, I don’t think we’re going to have any challenge meeting our internal targets for 3D TRASAR, particularly in CIP, which is what we’re doing in Food & Beverage. In terms of solids, solid CIP 3D TRASAR is our targeted lodging effort. It’s going to be lodging and hospitals. There we’re also having a lot of success that’s just rolling out. We see incremental sales in the $70 million range from that, but that should take several years to generate as well, but I would say, all those things will continue to drive our vitality index and gross margin expansion.
John P. McNulty – Credit Suisse Securities LLC:
Okay. Fair enough. And then just one last question. It sounds like LATAM was an area of relative strength for you, which is I guess hearing some of your peers throughout the quarter, that wasn’t necessarily the case for everyone in the industry. So I guess I'm wondering what's driving that. What specific areas in the Industrial segment are you really seeing that strength?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr.:
Well, we had strength across the board. We were strong in F&B. We were strong in Water, we were strong in Energy and Institutional had a good quarter too. So I would just say our positioning of clean water, food, energy and healthy environment plays well in Latin America. It plays well frankly in all the emerging markets. So we saw very strong growth across the board in our emerging markets, not just Latin America. China was double digits. EMEA is going to start showing underlying strength as well as we get moving. We’re starting to do, I think, the right things in Eastern Europe and that will get moving in the direction as well. So, I think it’s just right businesses and good execution.
John P. McNulty – Credit Suisse Securities LLC:
Great. Thanks very much.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Mike Ritzenthaler of Piper Jaffray. Your line is now open.
Mike Ritzenthaler – Piper Jaffray & Co:
Yes. Good afternoon. So we’ve heard that the rent prices on offshore rigs that they have been declining modestly month-over-month for the past few months. Can you describe how that influences your outlook seeing as it runs a little bit counter to that in the Energy segment and especially since Ecolab has a little bit higher customer intimacy on the offshore side of things?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr.: :
Mike Ritzenthaler – Piper Jaffray & Co:
Of course.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr.:
So I just look at it this way. I think the underlying trends that we’ve spoken about for the last few years in Energy are still the prevailing trends and that is new oil replacing old oil, new oil commanding significantly more of our technology than old oil. Therefore, you’ve just got natural inherent growth even at a relatively flat overall oil demand, which is not what we’re actually seeing and you got gas on top. So, I think our trends and what we see in that industry still feel very strong.
Mike Ritzenthaler – Piper Jaffray & Co:
And then as a follow-up on beverage in particular, it seemed quite strong in 1Q as Mike had detailed in the prepared comments. Is there a way to delineate things like new products from other drivers like enterprise selling in markets like beverage? Is one a better contributor than another?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr.:
I don’t have that here. We can of course look at that. I’d say two things. I mean we do have a bunch of new technology going to the beverage market, but we’ve also had a lot of significant success with large players in that industry and we’re gaining share. So it’s a combination of both and obviously technology helps you drive share. So even if you separate out the numbers, I’m not sure that’s the complete story because technology begets new business and so it’s all related.
Mike Ritzenthaler – Piper Jaffray & Co:
All right. Thanks, Doug.
Operator:
Our next question comes from John Roberts from UBS. Your line is now open.
John E. Roberts – UBS Securities LLC:
Good afternoon. As you roll out 3D TRASAR into Food & Beverage, how is that going to play out? Is that going to free the field force to be more active prospecting new business or is it going to just lower cost initially in existing business? How are you going to utilize it?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr.:
I think it just dramatically further improves our ability to be best-in-class with customers and this has got several impacts. One, it will give better usage rates, you are going to have equal to better efficacy. You are going to reduce water and energy usage considerably because you don’t have to overshoot all the time and it also has a very tie in impact in terms of our ability to manage a water process at the back end of the operation. So this is important data that they need to collect anyway. It is now automated. I wouldn’t say that it dramatically changes our field sales productivity measures, but it does gives us a very important tool to go out and solidify new business and up sell existing accounts. That’s really where we’re going to focus on driving that.
John E. Roberts – UBS Securities LLC:
And I just wanted to clarify how you are going to handle the US R&D tax credit. So it’s not in your Q1 results or Q2 or Q3 expectations, but in the fourth quarter you expect to take a full-year catch up, which we’re actively in the fourth quarter for the year?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr.:
Yes. That’s exactly how have we have it in the plan.
John E. Roberts – UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. Thank you.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr.:
You bet.
Operator:
Our next question comes from David Ridley Lane of Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is now open.
David Ridley-Lane:
Sure. Have you completed cycling through the deemphasized business in water or is that a drag in the first quarter and if so, when would you expect to completely cycle through that?
– Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Sure. Have you completed cycling through the deemphasized business in water or is that a drag in the first quarter and if so, when would you expect to completely cycle through that?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr.:
We’ll be through most of it by the end of this year, but you’re going to see it even in Q3 and very small in Q4.
David Ridley-Lane:
Okay. And then was paper OIs for picking up despite the declines in North America and EMEA volumes?
– Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Okay. And then was paper OIs for picking up despite the declines in North America and EMEA volumes?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr.:
Yes, paper OI was up – volume for the exact number was single-digit. Paper was up – it was slightly up, but yes, it was up.
David Ridley-Lane:
Let me squeeze one more in. Could you give some details around sort of the globalization of sales initiatives you have particularly in the institutional business. Thanks.
– Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Let me squeeze one more in. Could you give some details around sort of the globalization of sales initiatives you have particularly in the institutional business. Thanks.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr.:
Like talk about the initiatives, well yes, we have the right global product line and it makes sure that we can get new solid Apex across the globe. Right now we have not add the capability to manufacture around the world. We have developed what I’ll call a much lower capital manufacturing process, which will enable expansion of that program i.e. with localize manufacturing in a much faster manners than it would have, if we had not figured it out how to do this. Two, we are driving Global 360, which is the field technology tool that enables highly productivity, better service, better ability to capture information, which is an important way so to merchandize with particularly large enterprise account while what we are doing, what we see and what we can see suggest, they do to improve their operation which many times involve more of our technology and products and service. The other is just how do you operate the sales and service team and taking some of our know-how and spreading it across the globe. So it’s in all those dimensions. So it’s certainly higher-end product lines, it is the field technology tools and what I would call the general management know-how that we are driving right now. We work last year very aggressively on corporate account efforts in the like and you are starting to see that bear fruit.
David Ridley-Lane:
Thank you very much.
– Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
Our next question comes from John Quealy from Canaccord Genuity. Your line is now open.
John S. Quealy – Canaccord Genuity, Inc.:
Hi good afternoon. By healthcare I know it’s a relatively small and promising area, but can you give us an update in terms of your satisfaction with results, I’m not necessarily talking about the quarter, but mid-term platform expansion opportunity including external M&A there?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr.:
Yes, from an M&A front I would say, with the promising property has been increasing and that's not only in healthcare, but that's across the board, as we started I would say re-emphasizing bolt-on acquisitions, be it geographic expansion, newer share play or new technology. And certainly our healthcare lift has benefited too from getting back on the focus which is I think, it’s a natural stage of where we are. Come to healthcare, but we don’t like the results that we are seeing, we understand many of the drivers. The business is working hard at how improve their ability to go drive new business impact. So fundamentally in the U.S. in many of the areas that we compete, we’ve had same store sales equivalent challenges. This isn’t unique to us. It’s pretty much across the board in many parts of the healthcare industry. We’ve seen this in many environments before and we overcome it by selling through it, and right now our sales efforts aren’t significant enough to overcome negative same-store sales. I mean it is about as simple as that. So our business is sticky, we are keeping it. There is a lot of the metrics that we like, but we are really if you will, in the shop working on, how do we drive that forward and work on it. Now I will say that's a competency that we have in this company, we are good at this and we are quite confident, we’ll get this move in the right direction and the healthcare teams are all over it, but it’s not going to be an overnight success. So we are not going to start seeing the sixth to eighth, high single-digit collectively for a number of quarters and so we’ve got a so ramping-up sales, which we believe we’ll start seeing, but we are not going to be where, we are comfortable for the several quarters.
John S. Quealy – Canaccord Genuity, Inc.:
Okay, and then a quick follow-up on Global Energy in terms of the guidance in the back-half of the year, was some acceleration in growth. I would assume that’s still more geared towards upstream and offshore than downstream relatively incremental benefits in the back-half of the year?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr.:
Absolutely.
John S. Quealy – Canaccord Genuity, Inc.:
Okay, great thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from P.J. Juvekar of Citi. Your line is now open.
Eric B. Petrie – Citigroup Global Markets Inc.:
Yes, Hi Doug, this is Eric Petrie in for P.J. Just a question in terms of your Global Energy margins, it looks like some of your segment adjustments led to a total of advice lower 13 margin as 13.4% from 14.2% first quarter it was at 13.1%. How do you see the trajectory of the margins going forward this year?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr.:
Yes, I think, the only change was happy corporate allocations I wouldn’t, the underlying business margins in Energy has been improving steadily and its forecast improve fairly, significantly this year.
Eric B. Petrie – Citigroup Global Markets Inc.:
Okay. And then could us also talk a little bit about your sales growth in Europe in Institutional, and if you’re seeing in terms of operating margin improvement of your 100 basis points, is there any attrition of that what you now focusing on top line growth?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr.:
No our forecast in Europe for margin growth this year was 100 basis points plus and we see that as achievable obviously we’ve had to execute the rest of the year. Our first quarter margins in Europe were up several hundred basis points, it was a very strong start, stronger than forecast initially in fact. But these margins come in lumps at times, so it’s not this moved 100 every quarter, so we don’t expect it was north of 250, we didn’t expect to see that every quarter. So it was a good start. We do not see the focus shift if you will externally impacting our ability to drive the 100 margin point. What we do see is, as we start seeing top line, solidifying and growing which is what we saw in the first quarter. Solidifying, we expect to start to see growth as we move throughout the year. You are going to see a lot more leverage on all of that margin we put in over the last two years.
Eric B. Petrie – Citigroup Global Markets Inc.:
Okay, and then lastly if I could as you rollout 3D TRASAR into the light, industries and water can you just remind us your light, heavy, mining sales right now?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr.:
Yes, in terms of percentage of sales in each?
Eric B. Petrie – Citigroup Global Markets Inc.:
Yes.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr.:
Yes, it’s roughly, yes, just give us a second. Like 40% – yes, so light about 40%, heavy is about 25% and mining is 10% to 15%?
Eric B. Petrie – Citigroup Global Markets Inc.:
Great, thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Mike Harrison from First Analysis. Your line is now open.
Michael J. Harrison - First Analysis Securities Corporation:
Yes, I think that adds up to 80 but close enough I guess.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr.:
Yes, we just got the same number?
Michael J. Harrison - First Analysis Securities Corporation:
Was wondering if you could talk a little bit about Apex. If memory serves, you guys never really rolled out the Apex1 platform in Europe the way that you had initially expected. So can you talk a little bit about the Apex2 rollout and how meaningful that could be for the European institutional business?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr.:
Yes. I know we do not do Apex1, we skipped right to Apex2 was in the process of being rolled out right now in Europe.
Michael J. Harrison - First Analysis Securities Corporation:
Right, but I mean in terms of how beneficial it could be, I mean this is sort of as you say, skipping a generation and really bringing a value creating platform to a set of customers that has been kind of behind the times. So how important is that to growing going forward?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr.:
Well, as I mentioned earlier, we had a number of very large new customer wins in the first quarter in Europe institutional. And certainly, Apex is critical and at least two of those. So it’s going to do a number of things, right it gives you a tool to go after entrenched business, because it is by far the most advanced technology in that industry. And so we know we have been handicapped for a while in Europe without the latest technology and without some of the tools, so we deployed another geographies. So this is one of the ways that we are going to start turning around negative sales growth to positive sales growth. I think if we look at institutional, we were positive for the first quarter. It’s the first time we’ve been positive there in a long time, and we don’t even have yet the benefit of the new businesses we sold, because that’s really being rolled in Q2, as we speak right now. So without getting into specifics, we need to get Europe as I’ve always said, our expectation of Europe will not be in the six to eight. But we do believe it needs to start getting in the 2% to 3% to 4% range, and it’s going to rollout technology getting their, the right field tools and driving the sales performance the way we drive it everywhere else, are they keys to doing that. That’s the agenda, we are on now. The P&L is much more rights than wrong, at this point in time in terms of balance of investments and cost structure. So that the good work that the new business will actually accrue the profit. At this point in time, given the structure of the business and so that’s what we’re on. And new technology is the key part of it.
Michael J. Harrison - First Analysis Securities Corporation:
And then just a quick one on energy. Are you seeing any disruption in the Black Sea related to the situation with Crimea and Russia, Ukraine?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr.:
No, it’s not the drama. If there are issues as a result of that I don’t think that’s how we’ll see it.
Michael J. Harrison - First Analysis Securities Corporation:
All right, thanks very much.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Andrew Wittmann of Robert W. Baird. Your line is now open.
Andrew J. Wittmann – Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. Just a couple here on guidance. I noticed you tweaked the gross margin guidance here for the year from 46% to 47%. Can you just talk about what’s behind that? Was it accounting thing where you moved an immaterial amount of cost from cost of goods to SG&A or were there other things there?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr.:
Yes, mostly Andrew, it was one rounded down and all rounded up. We’re probably indicating more precision than we meant to as we went through this. I’d say from a GP standpoint for the year, we feel we are in good shape, was up, if you do apples and apples 50 basis points Q1 versus last year. We expect that spread to widen as we go throughout the year. And so I think, we were taking the steps we need to do to make sure that happens. So it’s going to be a positive contributor but we were trying to indicate that it’s going to be 100 basis points better than we have indicated last call.
Andrew J. Wittmann – Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
Can you just talk in maybe a little bit of detail on kind of the raw material environment that you experienced in the quarter, and how that outlook shapes up and factors in that gross margin number?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr.:
Yes, raws are pretty benign as we look at it. So we do not expect raw materials to be a big conversation point this year, I mean their plus, minus and on the amount we buy it’s pretty very, very small. Pricing will certainly – pricing is going to be near what it was last year and in a benign raw market, it’s one of the key drivers that increased GP.
Andrew J. Wittmann – Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
Got it, great. And just maybe final question on cash flow; do you still feel kind of like the $1 billion plus number is the right way to think about the year with the start that we have and where we are here so far in 2Q?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr.:
Yes, we do. We think we are on track on cash flow.
Andrew J. Wittmann – Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Dmitry Silversteyn of Longbow Research. Your line is now open.
Dmitry Silversteyn – Longbow Research LLC:
Good afternoon, guys. Thanks for taking my call. A couple of things in terms of the food and beverage market. I think the one area that we consistently keep hearing about weaknesses in the protein market. Is there anything taking place that would reverse or alleviate that issue? Or maybe you can talk a little bit about what the issues are and how you are dealing with them?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr.: : : :
Dmitry Silversteyn – Longbow Research LLC:
So this has nothing to do with changing diets or changing population dynamics or anything like that.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr.:
If anything long-term, we think protein is going to be moving forward not backwards as diets change in the emerging markets.
Dmitry Silversteyn – Longbow Research LLC:
Okay. And then on the Nalco/Champion integration and the process you are making there, can you update us on what the cost synergies to-date realized were and where do you think you are going to be by the end of 2014 and 2015?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr.:
Yes, well this is on the Champion – on the Champion side, as you guys, I don’t know what – so on Champion, we had $25 million last year, we’re forecasting $80 million this. We were about $18 million in the first quarter and $130 million year after.
Dmitry Silversteyn – Longbow Research LLC:
Thanks, very good. Then the last question on – there was a question about the situation in Latin America and you answered it nicely as far as what you are doing to sort of offset the issues there. But the other thing that other companies have been complaining about besides sort of economic condition is currency devaluation. I haven't heard you mention that as a problem. So is that not impacting you or is it you are just dealing with it in terms of getting pricing up or just weathering through it?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr.:
Yes, I know as you are aware, we have business in Venezuela, Argentina and the other countries in Brazil. But Venezuela, I mean, we’re pricing to recover, where we’ve already had devaluation. It will fight for normal cycle that we’ve all lived through in the past and so we’re on the other end of that, but certainly there is still risk improvement evaluation in that market, which we talked about in our releases. So it’s an issue. So Venezuela is about 1 percentage sales. So it doesn't seem like the thing to focus on.
Dmitry Silversteyn – Longbow Research LLC:
Got it. Thank you, Doug.
Operator:
This is the operator. I just wanted to remind everyone that you’re allowed to give two questions, one main question and a follow-up question. Our next question comes from Rosemarie Morbelli with Gabelli & Company. Your line is now open.
Rosemarie J. Morbelli – Gabelli & Company:
Good afternoon, all. Doug, you talked about the lack of impact from the issues in Russia and Ukraine on the energy side. Could you talk about what it could do to the institutional side as tourism may come down. So we are talking about restaurants, hotels. What size is your business in that particular neck of the woods?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr.:
:
Rosemarie J. Morbelli – Gabelli & Company:
Okay. That is helpful, thank you. You talked about several large new accounts in Europe. Was the first quarter helped by filling up a pipeline or is it a question of those particular accounts showing revenues over the course of the year as opposed to one big lump in one quarter and then stop until they need more products?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr.:
Yes, I don’t think we shift anything to any of those accounts in the first quarter. And if we had, there are sometimes a small pipeline at front, but it's not that dramatic. It’s principally an annuity business. And so as the business comes on, it starts consuming product, but at a fairly gradual pace, it’s not a big lump, big spike and then a downward trend, it's an upward trend.
Rosemarie J. Morbelli – Gabelli & Company:
If you put them all together can you give us a feel for how much they could generate incrementally?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr.:
Yes, we don’t typically name names or disclose size. How about this? They’re big enough to mention.
Rosemarie J. Morbelli – Gabelli & Company:
Okay.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr.:
It’s going to be meaningful, and I think you should expect to be able to see it in the P&L, in the sales trends, in Europe as we move forward.
Rosemarie J. Morbelli – Gabelli & Company:
Okay. Thanks.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Shlomo Rosenbaum of Stifel. Your line is now open.
Shlomo H. Rosenbaum – Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc:
Hi, thank you very much for taking my questions. Doug, I just wanted to ask you a longer-term kind of holistic question. When you bought Nalco, the cost synergies were supposed to run through 2014 and we’re in 2014 now and you’re going to have some benefit from Champion in 2015. It looks like about 30 basis points for the margin. Can you just talk holistically about the levers you are going to be going after to get the 50 to 100 basis point margin expansion when you don’t have as much benefit from acquisition synergies?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr.:
Well, I guess, first I would say this. When we announced the Nalco deal, we first talked about $150 million and then we update months later the $250 million in total synergies and that was through 2015, right. The sale synergies of $500 million were through. With that said, they still ultimately come to an end, which I think is the heart of you second part of your question and I’d say two things. Our underlying business and we believe confidently we’ve grown this 6% to 8% range. We have four decades driven margin expansion and we will continue to do that. Plus we will be adding two historic, but relatively there will new tools, because they’ve been on the blocks for a while, which is – we’re back in the share buyback business. So we’re going to be back in the bolt-on M&A business as we move forward. And share has been negative for the last few years, not a positive. But as we stop debt paydown, which is really only remaining of this year, we’re out of the debt paydown business. Going forward several steps that comes off, but it’s kind of natural occurrence and we’re going to have cash utilized for its M&A, which is accretive typically, and then second for some share buyback. And so, you take all those together. I think we’re quite confident that we can play in the 15% EPS range post synergy.
Shlomo H. Rosenbaum – Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc:
But is the 50 to 100 basis points on the operating margin still the way that you think about it or is there going to be more share buybacks than we had been thinking about before?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr.:
No, I think the roughly 75 basis point operating margin is how we think about it.
Shlomo H. Rosenbaum – Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc:
Okay. And if I can just sneak in just the tone last quarter sounded like Europe was starting to get better at least it felt that way. Would you say that you are incrementally feeling better about Europe or just kind of reiterating what you said last quarter? And I’ll leave it after that.
Douglas M. Baker, Jr.:
Starting at the same trend. Yes, we’re a quarter further in and I would say that, yes, we think Europe is showing improvement, our business in Europe in particular.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Edward Yang of Oppenheimer. Your line is now open.
Edward H. Yang – Oppenheimer & Co., Inc.:
Hey, Doug. Hey, Mike. The large new customer wins in European institutional, I was curious, was that from one of your larger competitors or how was that distributed in terms of competitive wins? And what are you seeing in terms of price competition from some of your competitors there?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr.:
When I would say broadly on price competition, I’d say we still see a lot of the same activity we’ve seen for a long time, which is typically the way our competition is. In many cases it got after our businesses by promising significant price reductions and so unfortunately that hasn’t changed, but we’ve looked at that. I mean, it’s almost 25 years and we’ve seen after 25 years. So it probably won’t change anytime soon. In terms of who is the business from, we won’t get into the institutional business. It was large customers in Europe.
Edward H. Yang – Oppenheimer & Co., Inc.:
Got you. And pest elimination, that moderated a bit, it grew 3% and had been running at 5%. Is there anything to read into that? Was there weather impact or was that just kind of lumpiness?
Douglas M. Baker, Jr.:
Yes, it was hopefully in Europe and France, where we had delayed service and we only do offer the service when it’s performed. So we see catch-up there. So ultimately we’ll be fine.
Edward H. Yang – Oppenheimer & Co., Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Monahan for closing remarks.
Michael J. Monahan:
Well, that concludes our call for the day. Thank you very much everyone. We appreciate your time and attention and have a good rest of the day. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you for your participation in today’s call, you may now disconnect.