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Edison International
EIX · US · NYSE
81.98
USD
+0.25
(0.30%)
Executives
Name Title Pay
Mr. J. Andrew Murphy President & Chief Executive Officer of Edison Energy 877K
Ms. Kara Gostenhofer Ryan Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer & Controller --
Ms. Beth M. Foley Vice President of Corporate Communications --
Ms. Marta I. Carreira Slabe Vice President & Chief Ethics & Compliance Officer --
Dr. Pedro J. Pizarro President, Chief Executive Officer & Director 3.28M
Ms. Maria C. Rigatti Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer 1.53M
Mr. Adam Seth Umanoff J.D. Executive Vice President, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary 1.3M
Mr. Steven D. Powell President & Chief Executive Officer of SCE 1.33M
Ms. Natalie K. Schilling Senior Vice President & Chief Human Resources Officer --
Mr. Sam Ramraj Vice President of Investor Relations --
Insider Transactions
Date Name Title Acquisition Or Disposition Stock / Options # of Shares Price
2024-07-31 Murphy J Andrew PRESIDENT & CEO, EDISON ENERGY A - M-Exempt Common Stock 32505 69.01
2024-07-31 Murphy J Andrew PRESIDENT & CEO, EDISON ENERGY D - S-Sale Common Stock 32505 80.1229
2024-07-31 Murphy J Andrew PRESIDENT & CEO, EDISON ENERGY D - M-Exempt Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 32505 69.01
2024-07-30 Schilling Natalie K SENIOR VP & CHIEF HR OFFICER A - M-Exempt Common Stock 9430 63.65
2024-07-30 Schilling Natalie K SENIOR VP & CHIEF HR OFFICER A - M-Exempt Common Stock 11193 54.91
2024-07-30 Schilling Natalie K SENIOR VP & CHIEF HR OFFICER A - M-Exempt Common Stock 13320 54.31
2024-07-30 Schilling Natalie K SENIOR VP & CHIEF HR OFFICER A - M-Exempt Common Stock 4068 64.59
2024-07-30 Schilling Natalie K SENIOR VP & CHIEF HR OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 3695 79.38
2024-07-30 Schilling Natalie K SENIOR VP & CHIEF HR OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 8509 79.38
2024-07-30 Schilling Natalie K SENIOR VP & CHIEF HR OFFICER D - M-Exempt Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 4068 64.59
2024-07-30 Schilling Natalie K SENIOR VP & CHIEF HR OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 9071 79.38
2024-07-31 Schilling Natalie K SENIOR VP & CHIEF HR OFFICER D - S-Sale Common Stock 2341 80.0021
2024-07-30 Schilling Natalie K SENIOR VP & CHIEF HR OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 10615 79.38
2024-07-30 Schilling Natalie K SENIOR VP & CHIEF HR OFFICER D - M-Exempt Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 9430 63.65
2024-07-30 Schilling Natalie K SENIOR VP & CHIEF HR OFFICER D - M-Exempt Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 11193 54.91
2024-07-30 Schilling Natalie K SENIOR VP & CHIEF HR OFFICER D - M-Exempt Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 13320 54.31
2024-07-26 Murphy J Andrew PRESIDENT & CEO, EDISON ENERGY A - M-Exempt Common Stock 28995 66.88
2024-07-26 Murphy J Andrew PRESIDENT & CEO, EDISON ENERGY D - S-Sale Common Stock 28995 78.426
2024-07-26 Murphy J Andrew PRESIDENT & CEO, EDISON ENERGY D - M-Exempt Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 28995 66.88
2024-06-05 Choi Caroline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - M-Exempt Common Stock 10004 63.72
2024-06-05 Choi Caroline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - S-Sale Common Stock 10004 75.7693
2024-06-05 Choi Caroline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - M-Exempt Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 10004 63.72
2024-05-14 Taylor Peter J. director D - G-Gift Common Stock 135 0
2024-05-14 Murphy J Andrew PRESIDENT & CEO, EDISON ENERGY A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2040 54.91
2024-05-14 Murphy J Andrew PRESIDENT & CEO, EDISON ENERGY A - M-Exempt Common Stock 22228 62.5
2024-05-14 Murphy J Andrew PRESIDENT & CEO, EDISON ENERGY A - M-Exempt Common Stock 20744 60.78
2024-05-13 Murphy J Andrew PRESIDENT & CEO, EDISON ENERGY A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3225 54.91
2024-05-13 Murphy J Andrew PRESIDENT & CEO, EDISON ENERGY D - M-Exempt Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 3225 54.91
2024-05-13 Murphy J Andrew PRESIDENT & CEO, EDISON ENERGY A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3200 62.5
2024-05-14 Murphy J Andrew PRESIDENT & CEO, EDISON ENERGY D - M-Exempt Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 2040 54.91
2024-05-13 Murphy J Andrew PRESIDENT & CEO, EDISON ENERGY A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3369 60.78
2024-05-13 Murphy J Andrew PRESIDENT & CEO, EDISON ENERGY D - M-Exempt Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 3200 62.5
2024-05-13 Murphy J Andrew PRESIDENT & CEO, EDISON ENERGY D - M-Exempt Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 3369 60.78
2024-05-14 Murphy J Andrew PRESIDENT & CEO, EDISON ENERGY D - S-Sale Common Stock 45012 75.1416
2024-05-13 Murphy J Andrew PRESIDENT & CEO, EDISON ENERGY D - S-Sale Common Stock 9794 75.0742
2024-05-14 Murphy J Andrew PRESIDENT & CEO, EDISON ENERGY D - M-Exempt Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 20744 60.78
2024-05-14 Murphy J Andrew PRESIDENT & CEO, EDISON ENERGY D - M-Exempt Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 22228 62.5
2024-05-10 Murphy J Andrew PRESIDENT & CEO, EDISON ENERGY A - M-Exempt Common Stock 19408 54.91
2024-05-10 Murphy J Andrew PRESIDENT & CEO, EDISON ENERGY A - M-Exempt Common Stock 19358 62.5
2024-05-10 Murphy J Andrew PRESIDENT & CEO, EDISON ENERGY A - M-Exempt Common Stock 19333 60.78
2024-05-10 Murphy J Andrew PRESIDENT & CEO, EDISON ENERGY D - M-Exempt Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 19408 54.91
2024-05-10 Murphy J Andrew PRESIDENT & CEO, EDISON ENERGY D - M-Exempt Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 19358 62.5
2024-05-10 Murphy J Andrew PRESIDENT & CEO, EDISON ENERGY D - M-Exempt Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 19333 60.78
2024-05-10 Murphy J Andrew PRESIDENT & CEO, EDISON ENERGY D - S-Sale Common Stock 58099 75.0141
2024-04-25 O'TOOLE TIMOTHY director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 2496 0
2024-04-25 Beliveau-Dunn Jeanne director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 2496 0
2024-04-25 Trent Keith director A - A-Award Common Stock 2496 0
2024-04-25 Smith Carey A. director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 2496 0
2024-04-25 Taylor Peter J. director A - A-Award Common Stock 3796 0
2024-04-25 STUNTZ LINDA G director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 2496 0
2024-04-25 Reed Marcy L. director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 2496 0
2024-04-25 Morris James T director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 2496 0
2024-04-25 CHANG VANESSA C L director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 2496 0
2024-04-25 Camunez Michael C director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 2496 0
2024-03-01 Choi Caroline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - A-Award Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 15841 66.55
2024-03-01 Choi Caroline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 3162 0
2024-03-01 Murphy J Andrew PRESIDENT & CEO, EDISON ENERGY A - A-Award Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 16002 66.55
2024-03-01 Murphy J Andrew PRESIDENT & CEO, EDISON ENERGY A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 3194 0
2024-03-01 Ryan Kara Gostenhofer VP, CAO AND CONTROLLER A - A-Award Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 7754 66.55
2024-03-01 Ryan Kara Gostenhofer VP, CAO AND CONTROLLER A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 1548 0
2024-03-01 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP, GC AND CORP. SEC. A - G-Gift Common Stock 5979 0
2024-03-01 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP, GC AND CORP. SEC. A - A-Award Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 29406 66.55
2024-03-01 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP, GC AND CORP. SEC. A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 5868 0
2024-03-01 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP, GC AND CORP. SEC. D - G-Gift Common Stock 5979 0
2024-03-01 Schilling Natalie K SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - A-Award Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 14119 66.55
2024-03-01 Schilling Natalie K SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2818 0
2024-03-01 Rigatti Maria C. EXEC. VP AND CFO A - A-Award Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 41416 66.55
2024-03-01 Rigatti Maria C. EXEC. VP AND CFO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 8265 0
2024-03-01 Powell Steven D PRESIDENT AND CEO, SCE A - A-Award Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 37689 66.55
2024-03-01 Powell Steven D PRESIDENT AND CEO, SCE A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 7521 0
2024-03-01 PIZARRO PEDRO PRESIDENT AND CEO A - A-Award Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 175264 66.55
2024-03-01 PIZARRO PEDRO PRESIDENT AND CEO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 34974 0
2024-03-01 Bowman Erica S VICE PRESIDENT A - A-Award Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 4344 66.55
2024-03-01 Bowman Erica S VICE PRESIDENT A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 867 0
2024-03-01 Anderson Jill Charlotte EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, SCE A - A-Award Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 14402 66.55
2024-03-01 Anderson Jill Charlotte EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, SCE A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2874 0
2024-02-21 Rigatti Maria C. EXEC. VP AND CFO A - A-Award Common Stock 13328.1412 0
2024-02-21 Rigatti Maria C. EXEC. VP AND CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 6721 67.95
2024-02-21 Rigatti Maria C. EXEC. VP AND CFO D - D-Return Common Stock 1.1412 67.95
2024-02-21 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP, GC AND CORP. SEC. A - A-Award Common Stock 9993.4686 0
2024-02-21 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP, GC AND CORP. SEC. D - F-InKind Common Stock 4014 67.95
2024-02-21 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP, GC AND CORP. SEC. D - D-Return Common Stock 0.4686 67.95
2024-02-21 Schilling Natalie K SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - A-Award Common Stock 1619.688 0
2024-02-21 Schilling Natalie K SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - F-InKind Common Stock 587 67.95
2024-02-21 Schilling Natalie K SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - D-Return Common Stock 0.688 67.95
2024-02-21 Powell Steven D PRESIDENT AND CEO, SCE A - A-Award Common Stock 6513.6956 0
2024-02-21 Powell Steven D PRESIDENT AND CEO, SCE D - F-InKind Common Stock 2326 67.95
2024-02-21 Powell Steven D PRESIDENT AND CEO, SCE D - D-Return Common Stock 1.6956 67.95
2024-02-21 PIZARRO PEDRO PRESIDENT AND CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 57417.933 0
2024-02-21 PIZARRO PEDRO PRESIDENT AND CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 29101 67.95
2024-02-21 PIZARRO PEDRO PRESIDENT AND CEO D - D-Return Common Stock 0.933 67.95
2024-02-21 Murphy J Andrew PRESIDENT & CEO, EDISON ENERGY A - A-Award Common Stock 5349.6125 0
2024-02-21 Murphy J Andrew PRESIDENT & CEO, EDISON ENERGY D - F-InKind Common Stock 1978 67.95
2024-02-21 Murphy J Andrew PRESIDENT & CEO, EDISON ENERGY D - D-Return Common Stock 0.6125 67.95
2024-02-21 Choi Caroline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - A-Award Common Stock 4940.295 0
2024-02-21 Choi Caroline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - F-InKind Common Stock 1764 67.95
2024-02-21 Choi Caroline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - D-Return Common Stock 1.295 67.95
2024-02-21 Bowman Erica S VICE PRESIDENT A - A-Award Common Stock 808.0858 0
2024-02-21 Bowman Erica S VICE PRESIDENT D - F-InKind Common Stock 302 67.95
2024-02-21 Bowman Erica S VICE PRESIDENT D - D-Return Common Stock 0.0858 67.95
2024-02-21 Anderson Jill Charlotte EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, SCE A - A-Award Common Stock 2553.8909 0
2024-02-21 Anderson Jill Charlotte EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, SCE D - F-InKind Common Stock 914 67.95
2024-02-21 Anderson Jill Charlotte EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, SCE D - D-Return Common Stock 0.8909 67.95
2024-02-19 Bowman Erica S VICE PRESIDENT D - Common Stock 0 0
2024-02-19 Bowman Erica S VICE PRESIDENT D - Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 2248 77.17
2024-02-19 Bowman Erica S VICE PRESIDENT D - Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 1858 54.91
2024-02-19 Bowman Erica S VICE PRESIDENT D - Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 995 63.65
2024-02-19 Bowman Erica S VICE PRESIDENT D - Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 178 56.58
2024-02-19 Bowman Erica S VICE PRESIDENT D - Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 2312 64.59
2026-01-02 Bowman Erica S VICE PRESIDENT D - Restricted Stock Units 710.2076 0
2024-01-08 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP, GC AND CORP. SEC. A - G-Gift Common Stock 4688 0
2024-01-08 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP, GC AND CORP. SEC. D - G-Gift Common Stock 4688 0
2024-01-02 Schilling Natalie K SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1121.1363 0
2024-01-02 Schilling Natalie K SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - F-InKind Common Stock 460 72.34
2024-01-02 Schilling Natalie K SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - D-Return Common Stock 0.1363 72.34
2024-01-02 Schilling Natalie K SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1121.1363 0
2024-01-02 Murphy J Andrew PRESIDENT & CEO, EDISON ENERGY A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3703.6315 0
2024-01-02 Murphy J Andrew PRESIDENT & CEO, EDISON ENERGY D - F-InKind Common Stock 1194 72.34
2024-01-02 Murphy J Andrew PRESIDENT & CEO, EDISON ENERGY D - D-Return Common Stock 0.6315 72.34
2024-01-02 Murphy J Andrew PRESIDENT & CEO, EDISON ENERGY D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 3703.6315 0
2024-01-02 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP, GC AND CORP. SEC. A - M-Exempt Common Stock 6918.6211 0
2024-01-02 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP, GC AND CORP. SEC. D - F-InKind Common Stock 2230 72.34
2024-01-02 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP, GC AND CORP. SEC. D - D-Return Common Stock 0.6211 72.34
2024-01-02 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP, GC AND CORP. SEC. D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 6918.6211 0
2024-01-02 Rigatti Maria C. EXEC. VP AND CFO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 18386 55.92
2024-01-02 Rigatti Maria C. EXEC. VP AND CFO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 9227.1115 0
2024-01-02 Rigatti Maria C. EXEC. VP AND CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 3293 72.34
2024-01-02 Rigatti Maria C. EXEC. VP AND CFO D - D-Return Common Stock 0.1115 72.34
2024-01-02 Rigatti Maria C. EXEC. VP AND CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 15822 72.34
2024-01-02 Rigatti Maria C. EXEC. VP AND CFO D - M-Exempt Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 18386 55.92
2024-01-02 Rigatti Maria C. EXEC. VP AND CFO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 9227.1115 0
2024-01-02 Powell Steven D PRESIDENT AND CEO, SCE A - M-Exempt Common Stock 6852 51.9
2024-01-02 Powell Steven D PRESIDENT AND CEO, SCE A - M-Exempt Common Stock 4519.2715 0
2024-01-02 Powell Steven D PRESIDENT AND CEO, SCE D - F-InKind Common Stock 1631 72.34
2024-01-02 Powell Steven D PRESIDENT AND CEO, SCE D - D-Return Common Stock 1.2715 72.34
2024-01-02 Powell Steven D PRESIDENT AND CEO, SCE D - F-InKind Common Stock 5710 72.34
2024-01-02 Powell Steven D PRESIDENT AND CEO, SCE D - M-Exempt Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 6852 51.9
2024-01-02 Powell Steven D PRESIDENT AND CEO, SCE D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 4519.2715 0
2024-01-02 PIZARRO PEDRO PRESIDENT AND CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 65879 65.48
2024-01-02 PIZARRO PEDRO PRESIDENT AND CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 39752.3873 0
2024-01-02 PIZARRO PEDRO PRESIDENT AND CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 19011 72.34
2024-01-02 PIZARRO PEDRO PRESIDENT AND CEO D - D-Return Common Stock 0.3873 72.34
2024-01-02 PIZARRO PEDRO PRESIDENT AND CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 61981 72.34
2024-01-02 PIZARRO PEDRO PRESIDENT AND CEO D - M-Exempt Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 65879 65.48
2024-01-02 PIZARRO PEDRO PRESIDENT AND CEO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 39752.3873 0
2024-01-02 Choi Caroline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3419.3515 0
2024-01-02 Choi Caroline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - F-InKind Common Stock 1340 72.34
2024-01-02 Choi Caroline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - D-Return Common Stock 0.3515 72.34
2024-01-02 Choi Caroline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 3419.3515 0
2024-01-02 Anderson Jill Charlotte EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, SCE A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1770.3742 0
2024-01-02 Anderson Jill Charlotte EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, SCE D - F-InKind Common Stock 726 72.34
2024-01-02 Anderson Jill Charlotte EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, SCE D - D-Return Common Stock 1.3742 72.34
2024-01-02 Anderson Jill Charlotte EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, SCE D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1770.3742 0
2024-01-01 Smith Carey A. director D - M-Exempt Phantom Stock 281.3732 0
2024-01-01 Smith Carey A. director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 281.3732 0
2024-01-01 Smith Carey A. director D - D-Return Common Stock 0.3732 71.49
2024-01-01 STUNTZ LINDA G director D - M-Exempt Phantom Stock 1060.1058 0
2024-01-01 STUNTZ LINDA G director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1060.1058 0
2024-01-01 STUNTZ LINDA G director D - D-Return Common Stock 2.1058 71.49
2023-09-29 Ryan Kara Gostenhofer VP, CAO AND CONTROLLER A - A-Award Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 6523 63.29
2023-09-29 Ryan Kara Gostenhofer VP, CAO AND CONTROLLER A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 1324 0
2023-09-15 Choi Caroline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - M-Exempt Common Stock 10592 51.9
2023-09-15 Choi Caroline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - S-Sale Common Stock 11222 71.642
2023-09-15 Choi Caroline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - M-Exempt Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 10592 51.9
2023-08-21 Ryan Kara Gostenhofer - 0 0
2023-07-03 Taylor Peter J. director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1394.512 0
2023-07-03 Taylor Peter J. director D - D-Return Common Stock 0.512 69.45
2023-07-03 Taylor Peter J. director D - M-Exempt Phantom Stock 1394.512 0
2023-04-27 Trent Keith director A - A-Award Common Stock 2277 0
2023-04-27 Taylor Peter J. director A - A-Award Common Stock 3535 0
2023-04-27 STUNTZ LINDA G director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 2277 0
2023-04-27 Smith Carey A. director A - A-Award Common Stock 2277 0
2023-04-27 Reed Marcy L. director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 2277 0
2023-04-27 O'TOOLE TIMOTHY director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 2277 0
2023-04-27 Morris James T director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 2277 0
2023-04-27 CHANG VANESSA C L director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 2277 0
2023-04-27 Camunez Michael C director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 2277 0
2023-04-27 Beliveau-Dunn Jeanne director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 2277 0
2023-04-05 Murphy J Andrew SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - M-Exempt Common Stock 22471 63.07
2023-04-05 Murphy J Andrew SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - S-Sale Common Stock 22471 72.0326
2023-04-05 Murphy J Andrew SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - M-Exempt Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 22471 63.07
2023-03-02 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP & GENERAL COUNSEL A - G-Gift Common Stock 1840 0
2023-03-02 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP & GENERAL COUNSEL D - G-Gift Common Stock 1840 0
2023-03-01 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP & GENERAL COUNSEL A - A-Award Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 28681 64.59
2023-03-01 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP & GENERAL COUNSEL A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 5618 0
2023-03-01 Sturgess Kate VICE PRESIDENT AND CONTROLLER A - A-Award Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 7101 64.59
2023-03-01 Sturgess Kate VICE PRESIDENT AND CONTROLLER A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 1391 0
2023-03-01 Schilling Natalie K SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - A-Award Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 12204 64.59
2023-03-01 Schilling Natalie K SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2391 0
2023-03-01 Rigatti Maria C. EXEC. VP AND CFO A - A-Award Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 40327 64.59
2023-03-01 Rigatti Maria C. EXEC. VP AND CFO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 7898 0
2023-03-01 Powell Steven D PRESIDENT AND CEO, SCE A - A-Award Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 36740 64.59
2023-03-01 Powell Steven D PRESIDENT AND CEO, SCE A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 7196 0
2023-03-01 PIZARRO PEDRO PRESIDENT AND CEO A - A-Award Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 179842 64.59
2023-03-01 PIZARRO PEDRO PRESIDENT AND CEO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 35223 0
2023-03-01 Murphy J Andrew SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - A-Award Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 16799 64.59
2023-03-01 Murphy J Andrew SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 3290 0
2023-03-01 Choi Caroline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - A-Award Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 15991 64.59
2023-03-01 Choi Caroline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 3132 0
2023-03-01 Anderson Jill Charlotte EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, SCE A - A-Award Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 11384 64.59
2023-03-01 Anderson Jill Charlotte EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, SCE A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2230 0
2023-02-22 Murphy J Andrew SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - A-Award Common Stock 1580.7484 0
2023-02-22 Murphy J Andrew SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - F-InKind Common Stock 628 66.2
2023-02-22 Murphy J Andrew SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - D-Return Common Stock 0.7484 66.2
2023-02-22 Choi Caroline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - A-Award Common Stock 1142.4 0
2023-02-22 Choi Caroline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - F-InKind Common Stock 396 66.2
2023-02-22 Choi Caroline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - D-Return Common Stock 0.4 66.2
2023-02-22 Anderson Jill Charlotte EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, SCE A - A-Award Common Stock 568.1389 0
2023-02-22 Anderson Jill Charlotte EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, SCE D - F-InKind Common Stock 196 66.2
2023-02-22 Anderson Jill Charlotte EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, SCE D - D-Return Common Stock 0.1389 66.2
2023-02-22 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP & GENERAL COUNSEL A - A-Award Common Stock 2895.794 0
2023-02-22 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP & GENERAL COUNSEL D - F-InKind Common Stock 1055 66.2
2023-02-22 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP & GENERAL COUNSEL D - D-Return Common Stock 0.794 66.2
2023-02-22 Schilling Natalie K SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - A-Award Common Stock 498.8208 0
2023-02-22 Schilling Natalie K SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - F-InKind Common Stock 203 66.2
2023-02-22 Schilling Natalie K SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - D-Return Common Stock 0.8208 66.2
2023-02-22 Rigatti Maria C. EXEC. VP AND CFO A - A-Award Common Stock 4057.7848 0
2023-02-22 Rigatti Maria C. EXEC. VP AND CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 1404 66.2
2023-02-22 Rigatti Maria C. EXEC. VP AND CFO D - D-Return Common Stock 0.7848 66.2
2023-02-22 Powell Steven D PRESIDENT AND CEO, SCE A - A-Award Common Stock 1073.8315 0
2023-02-22 Powell Steven D PRESIDENT AND CEO, SCE D - F-InKind Common Stock 372 66.2
2023-02-22 Powell Steven D PRESIDENT AND CEO, SCE D - D-Return Common Stock 0.8315 66.2
2023-02-22 PIZARRO PEDRO PRESIDENT AND CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 16451.5383 0
2023-02-22 PIZARRO PEDRO PRESIDENT AND CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 8157 66.2
2023-02-22 PIZARRO PEDRO PRESIDENT AND CEO D - D-Return Common Stock 0.5383 66.2
2023-01-11 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP & GENERAL COUNSEL A - G-Gift Common Stock 3666 0
2023-01-11 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP & GENERAL COUNSEL D - G-Gift Common Stock 3666 0
2023-01-03 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP & GENERAL COUNSEL A - M-Exempt Common Stock 5411.5548 0
2023-01-03 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP & GENERAL COUNSEL D - F-InKind Common Stock 1745 64.28
2023-01-03 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP & GENERAL COUNSEL D - D-Return Common Stock 0.5548 64.28
2023-01-03 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP & GENERAL COUNSEL D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 5411.5548 0
2023-01-03 Schilling Natalie K SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - M-Exempt Common Stock 931.2439 0
2023-01-03 Schilling Natalie K SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - F-InKind Common Stock 380 64.28
2023-01-03 Schilling Natalie K SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - D-Return Common Stock 0.2439 64.28
2023-01-03 Schilling Natalie K SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 931.2439 0
2023-01-03 Rigatti Maria C. EXEC. VP AND CFO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 7584.6447 0
2023-01-03 Rigatti Maria C. EXEC. VP AND CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 2771 64.28
2023-01-03 Rigatti Maria C. EXEC. VP AND CFO D - D-Return Common Stock 0.6447 64.28
2023-01-03 Rigatti Maria C. EXEC. VP AND CFO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 7584.6447 0
2023-01-03 Powell Steven D PRESIDENT AND CEO, SCE A - M-Exempt Common Stock 4077 48.48
2023-01-03 Powell Steven D PRESIDENT AND CEO, SCE A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2007.1615 0
2023-01-03 Powell Steven D PRESIDENT AND CEO, SCE D - F-InKind Common Stock 819 64.28
2023-01-03 Powell Steven D PRESIDENT AND CEO, SCE D - D-Return Common Stock 0.1615 64.28
2023-01-03 Powell Steven D PRESIDENT AND CEO, SCE D - F-InKind Common Stock 3446 64.28
2023-01-03 Powell Steven D PRESIDENT AND CEO, SCE D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 2007.1615 0
2023-01-03 PIZARRO PEDRO PRESIDENT AND CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 30750.5389 0
2023-01-03 PIZARRO PEDRO PRESIDENT AND CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 13061 64.28
2023-01-03 PIZARRO PEDRO PRESIDENT AND CEO D - D-Return Common Stock 0.5389 64.28
2023-01-03 PIZARRO PEDRO PRESIDENT AND CEO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 30750.5389 0
2023-01-03 Murphy J Andrew SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2954.6699 0
2023-01-03 Murphy J Andrew SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - F-InKind Common Stock 953 64.28
2023-01-03 Murphy J Andrew SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - D-Return Common Stock 0.6699 64.28
2023-01-03 Murphy J Andrew SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 2954.6699 0
2023-01-03 Choi Caroline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - M-Exempt Common Stock 15392 48.48
2023-01-03 Choi Caroline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2134.1827 0
2023-01-03 Choi Caroline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - F-InKind Common Stock 871 64.28
2023-01-03 Choi Caroline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - D-Return Common Stock 0.1827 64.28
2023-01-03 Choi Caroline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - F-InKind Common Stock 12933 64.28
2023-01-03 Choi Caroline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 2134.1827 0
2023-01-03 Anderson Jill Charlotte EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, SCE A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1060.7974 0
2023-01-03 Anderson Jill Charlotte EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, SCE D - F-InKind Common Stock 433 64.28
2023-01-03 Anderson Jill Charlotte EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, SCE D - D-Return Common Stock 0.7974 64.28
2023-01-03 Anderson Jill Charlotte EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, SCE D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1060.7974 0
2023-01-01 STUNTZ LINDA G director D - M-Exempt Phantom Stock 802.9593 0
2023-01-01 STUNTZ LINDA G director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 802.9593 0
2023-01-01 STUNTZ LINDA G director D - D-Return Common Stock 1.9593 63.62
2022-07-01 Taylor Peter J. A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2672.9475 0
2022-07-01 Taylor Peter J. D - D-Return Common Stock 0.9475 63.24
2022-07-01 Taylor Peter J. director D - M-Exempt Phantom Stock 2672.9475 0
2022-06-30 Sturgess Kate VICE PRESIDENT AND CONTROLLER A - A-Award Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 1426 0
2022-05-02 CHANG VANESSA C L director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 111 69.295
2022-03-23 CHANG VANESSA C L A - P-Purchase Common Stock 155 67.1828
2022-03-23 CHANG VANESSA C L director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 200 66.1678
2022-04-29 Sturgess Kate Vice President and Controller D - Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 6837 55.47
2022-04-29 Sturgess Kate Vice President and Controller D - Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 5238 63.65
2025-01-02 Sturgess Kate Vice President and Controller D - Restricted Stock Units 822.2033 0
2022-04-28 Camunez Michael C A - A-Award Phantom Stock 2225 0
2022-04-28 O'TOOLE TIMOTHY A - A-Award Phantom Stock 2225 0
2022-04-28 Taylor Peter J. A - A-Award Common Stock 3284 0
2022-04-28 Trent Keith A - A-Award Common Stock 2225 0
2022-04-28 STUNTZ LINDA G A - A-Award Phantom Stock 2225 0
2022-04-28 Smith Carey A. A - A-Award Phantom Stock 2225 0
2022-04-28 Morris James T A - A-Award Phantom Stock 2225 0
2022-04-28 CHANG VANESSA C L A - A-Award Phantom Stock 2225 0
2022-04-28 Beliveau-Dunn Jeanne A - A-Award Phantom Stock 2225 0
2022-03-01 Rigatti Maria C. EXEC. VP AND CFO A - A-Award Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 48356 63.65
2022-03-01 Rigatti Maria C. EXEC. VP AND CFO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 7506 0
2022-03-01 Murphy J Andrew SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - A-Award Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 18029 63.65
2022-03-01 Murphy J Andrew SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2799 0
2022-03-01 Moss Aaron D VICE PRESIDENT AND CONTROLLER A - A-Award Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 8399 63.65
2022-03-01 Moss Aaron D VICE PRESIDENT AND CONTROLLER A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 1304 0
2022-03-01 Choi Caroline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - A-Award Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 19031 63.65
2022-03-01 Choi Caroline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2955 0
2022-03-01 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP & GENERAL COUNSEL A - A-Award Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 33199 63.65
2022-03-01 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP & GENERAL COUNSEL A - G-Gift Common Stock 3499 0
2022-03-01 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP & GENERAL COUNSEL A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 5154 0
2022-03-01 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP & GENERAL COUNSEL D - G-Gift Common Stock 3499 0
2022-03-01 Schilling Natalie K SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2196 0
2022-03-01 Anderson Jill Charlotte EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, SCE A - A-Award Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 13386 0
2022-03-01 Powell Steven D PRESIDENT AND CEO, SCE A - A-Award Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 38652 0
2022-03-01 Powell Steven D PRESIDENT AND CEO, SCE A - A-Award Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 38652 63.65
2022-03-01 Powell Steven D PRESIDENT AND CEO, SCE A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 6000 0
2022-03-01 PIZARRO PEDRO PRESIDENT AND CEO A - A-Award Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 221863 63.65
2022-03-01 PIZARRO PEDRO PRESIDENT AND CEO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 34439 0
2020-07-06 SULLIVAN WILLIAM P director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 22 56.26
2022-03-01 Schilling Natalie K SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 13320 54.31
2022-03-01 Schilling Natalie K SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 14923 54.91
2024-01-02 Schilling Natalie K SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - Restricted Stock Units 1026.7873 0
2022-02-24 Reed Marcy L. director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 2663 0
2022-02-24 Reed Marcy L. - 0 0
2022-02-23 Anderson Jill Charlotte EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, SCE A - A-Award Common Stock 863.0173 0
2022-02-23 Anderson Jill Charlotte EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, SCE D - F-InKind Common Stock 309 59.02
2022-02-23 Anderson Jill Charlotte EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, SCE D - D-Return Common Stock 2.0173 59.02
2022-02-23 Powell Steven D PRESIDENT AND CEO, SCE A - A-Award Common Stock 1434.5972 0
2022-02-23 Powell Steven D PRESIDENT AND CEO, SCE D - F-InKind Common Stock 498 59.02
2022-02-23 Powell Steven D PRESIDENT AND CEO, SCE D - D-Return Common Stock 1.5972 59.02
2022-02-23 Trapp Jacqueline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - A-Award Common Stock 2480.2395 0
2022-02-23 Trapp Jacqueline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - F-InKind Common Stock 859 59.02
2022-02-23 Trapp Jacqueline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - D-Return Common Stock 0.2395 59.02
2022-02-23 Murphy J Andrew SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - A-Award Common Stock 3275.9813 0
2022-02-23 Murphy J Andrew SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - F-InKind Common Stock 1133 59.02
2022-02-23 Murphy J Andrew SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - D-Return Common Stock 0.9813 59.02
2022-02-23 Moss Aaron D VICE PRESIDENT AND CONTROLLER A - A-Award Common Stock 1389.1003 0
2022-02-23 Moss Aaron D VICE PRESIDENT AND CONTROLLER D - F-InKind Common Stock 474 59.02
2022-02-23 Moss Aaron D VICE PRESIDENT AND CONTROLLER D - D-Return Common Stock 1.1003 59.02
2022-02-23 Choi Caroline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - A-Award Common Stock 1738.0591 0
2022-02-23 Choi Caroline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - F-InKind Common Stock 688 59.02
2022-02-23 Choi Caroline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - D-Return Common Stock 1.0591 59.02
2022-02-23 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP & GENERAL COUNSEL A - A-Award Common Stock 5430.9973 0
2022-02-23 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP & GENERAL COUNSEL D - F-InKind Common Stock 1931 59.02
2022-02-23 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP & GENERAL COUNSEL D - D-Return Common Stock 0.9973 59.02
2022-02-23 Rigatti Maria C. EXEC. VP AND CFO A - A-Award Common Stock 7613.5934 0
2022-02-23 Rigatti Maria C. EXEC. VP AND CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 2652 59.02
2022-02-23 Rigatti Maria C. EXEC. VP AND CFO D - D-Return Common Stock 1.5934 59.02
2022-02-23 PIZARRO PEDRO PRESIDENT AND CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 29435.7229 0
2022-02-23 PIZARRO PEDRO PRESIDENT AND CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 14595 59.02
2022-02-23 PIZARRO PEDRO PRESIDENT AND CEO D - D-Return Common Stock 0.7229 59.02
2022-01-25 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP & GENERAL COUNSEL A - G-Gift Common Stock 3994 0
2022-01-25 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP & GENERAL COUNSEL D - G-Gift Common Stock 3994 0
2022-01-03 Powell Steven D PRESIDENT AND CEO, SCE A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1576.3465 0
2022-01-03 Powell Steven D PRESIDENT AND CEO, SCE D - F-InKind Common Stock 647 67.51
2022-01-03 Powell Steven D PRESIDENT AND CEO, SCE D - D-Return Common Stock 0.3465 67.51
2022-01-03 Powell Steven D PRESIDENT AND CEO, SCE D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1576.3465 0
2022-01-03 Rigatti Maria C. EXEC. VP AND CFO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 8263.8361 0
2022-01-03 Rigatti Maria C. EXEC. VP AND CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 2990 67.51
2022-01-03 Rigatti Maria C. EXEC. VP AND CFO D - D-Return Common Stock 0.8361 67.51
2022-01-03 Rigatti Maria C. EXEC. VP AND CFO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 8263.8361 0
2022-01-03 Trapp Jacqueline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2692.2391 0
2022-01-03 Trapp Jacqueline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - F-InKind Common Stock 1066 67.51
2022-01-03 Trapp Jacqueline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - D-Return Common Stock 0.2391 67.51
2022-01-03 Trapp Jacqueline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 2692.2391 0
2022-01-03 Murphy J Andrew SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3555.2529 0
2022-01-03 Murphy J Andrew SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - F-InKind Common Stock 1362 67.51
2022-01-03 Murphy J Andrew SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - D-Return Common Stock 0.2529 67.51
2022-01-03 Murphy J Andrew SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 3555.2529 0
2022-01-03 Choi Caroline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - M-Exempt Common Stock 32927 43.1
2022-01-03 Choi Caroline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1887.0623 0
2022-01-03 Choi Caroline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - F-InKind Common Stock 653 67.51
2022-01-03 Choi Caroline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - D-Return Common Stock 0.0623 67.51
2022-01-03 Choi Caroline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - F-InKind Common Stock 25271 67.51
2022-01-03 Choi Caroline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - M-Exempt Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 32927 43.1
2022-01-03 Choi Caroline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1887.0623 0
2022-01-03 Moss Aaron D VICE PRESIDENT AND CONTROLLER A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1507.1549 0
2022-01-03 Moss Aaron D VICE PRESIDENT AND CONTROLLER D - F-InKind Common Stock 618 67.51
2022-01-03 Moss Aaron D VICE PRESIDENT AND CONTROLLER D - D-Return Common Stock 0.1549 67.51
2022-01-03 Moss Aaron D VICE PRESIDENT AND CONTROLLER D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1507.1549 0
2022-01-03 Anderson Jill Charlotte EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, SCE A - M-Exempt Common Stock 940.1875 0
2022-01-03 Anderson Jill Charlotte EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, SCE D - F-InKind Common Stock 387 67.51
2022-01-03 Anderson Jill Charlotte EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, SCE D - D-Return Common Stock 1.1875 67.51
2022-01-03 Anderson Jill Charlotte EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, SCE D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 940.1875 0
2022-01-03 PIZARRO PEDRO PRESIDENT AND CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 31951.9118 0
2022-01-03 PIZARRO PEDRO PRESIDENT AND CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 13752 67.51
2022-01-03 PIZARRO PEDRO PRESIDENT AND CEO D - D-Return Common Stock 0.9118 67.51
2022-01-03 PIZARRO PEDRO PRESIDENT AND CEO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 31951.9118 0
2022-01-03 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP & GENERAL COUNSEL A - M-Exempt Common Stock 5894.8017 0
2022-01-03 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP & GENERAL COUNSEL D - F-InKind Common Stock 1900 67.51
2022-01-03 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP & GENERAL COUNSEL D - D-Return Common Stock 0.8017 67.51
2022-01-03 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP & GENERAL COUNSEL D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 5894.8017 0
2021-12-31 Anderson Jill Charlotte EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, SCE A - A-Award Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 2761 68.25
2021-12-31 Anderson Jill Charlotte EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, SCE A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 214 0
2021-12-31 Powell Steven D PRESIDENT AND CEO, SCE A - A-Award Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 9639 68.25
2021-12-31 Powell Steven D PRESIDENT AND CEO, SCE A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 747 0
2022-01-01 STUNTZ LINDA G director D - M-Exempt Phantom Stock 529.2558 0
2022-01-01 STUNTZ LINDA G director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 529.2558 0
2022-01-01 STUNTZ LINDA G director D - D-Return Common Stock 1.2558 68.25
2019-04-02 CHANG VANESSA C L director D - S-Sale Common Stock 113 62.86
2021-12-01 Anderson Jill Charlotte Executive Vice President, SCE D - Common Stock 0 0
2021-12-01 Anderson Jill Charlotte Executive Vice President, SCE I - Common Stock 0 0
2021-12-01 Anderson Jill Charlotte Executive Vice President, SCE D - Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 10296 62.5
2021-12-01 Anderson Jill Charlotte Executive Vice President, SCE D - Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 1528 75.42
2021-12-01 Anderson Jill Charlotte Executive Vice President, SCE D - Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 15557 69.01
2024-01-02 Anderson Jill Charlotte Executive Vice President, SCE D - Restricted Stock Units 1392.9709 0
2021-12-01 Anderson Jill Charlotte Executive Vice President, SCE D - Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 20471 54.91
2021-12-01 Anderson Jill Charlotte Executive Vice President, SCE D - Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 8720 60.78
2021-11-17 Taylor Peter J. director D - S-Sale Common Stock 3100 63.5615
2021-11-04 Taylor Peter J. director D - S-Sale Common Stock 220 62.44
2021-08-02 Taylor Peter J. director D - S-Sale Common Stock 230 54.69
2021-07-01 Taylor Peter J. director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2629.8506 0
2021-07-01 Taylor Peter J. director D - D-Return Common Stock 0.8506 57.82
2021-07-01 Taylor Peter J. director D - M-Exempt Phantom Stock 2629.8506 0
2021-05-03 Taylor Peter J. director D - S-Sale Common Stock 230 59.61
2021-04-22 Trent Keith director A - A-Award Common Stock 2564 0
2021-04-22 Taylor Peter J. director A - A-Award Common Stock 2564 0
2021-04-22 SULLIVAN WILLIAM P director A - A-Award Common Stock 3825 0
2021-04-22 STUNTZ LINDA G director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 2564 0
2021-04-22 Smith Carey A. director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 2564 0
2021-04-22 O'TOOLE TIMOTHY director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 2564 0
2021-04-22 Morris James T director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 2564 0
2021-04-22 CHANG VANESSA C L director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 2564 0
2021-04-22 Camunez Michael C director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 2564 0
2021-04-22 Beliveau-Dunn Jeanne director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 2564 0
2021-03-12 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP & GENERAL COUNSEL A - G-Gift Common Stock 12225 0
2021-03-12 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP & GENERAL COUNSEL D - G-Gift Common Stock 12225 0
2021-03-09 Trent Keith director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 271 57.4044
2021-03-01 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP & GENERAL COUNSEL A - A-Award Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 92175 54.91
2021-03-01 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP & GENERAL COUNSEL A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 6060 0
2021-03-01 Murphy J Andrew SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - A-Award Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 49343 54.91
2021-03-01 Murphy J Andrew SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 3244 0
2021-03-01 Taylor Peter J. director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2710.994 0
2021-03-01 Taylor Peter J. director D - D-Return Common Stock 0.994 53.99
2021-03-01 Taylor Peter J. director D - S-Sale Common Stock 230 54.6
2021-03-01 Taylor Peter J. director D - M-Exempt Phantom Stock 2710.994 0
2021-03-01 Choi Caroline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - A-Award Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 45555 54.91
2021-03-01 Choi Caroline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2995 0
2021-03-01 Powell Steven D EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, SCE A - A-Award Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 49343 54.91
2021-03-01 Powell Steven D EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, SCE A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 3244 0
2021-03-01 PIZARRO PEDRO PRESIDENT AND CEO A - A-Award Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 529606 54.91
2021-03-01 PIZARRO PEDRO PRESIDENT AND CEO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 34819 0
2021-03-01 Rigatti Maria C. EXEC. VP AND CFO A - A-Award Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 122923 54.91
2021-03-01 Rigatti Maria C. EXEC. VP AND CFO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 8082 0
2021-03-01 Trapp Jacqueline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - A-Award Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 44564 54.91
2021-03-01 Trapp Jacqueline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2930 0
2021-03-01 Payne Kevin M PRESIDENT AND CEO, SCE A - A-Award Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 118768 54.91
2021-03-01 Payne Kevin M PRESIDENT AND CEO, SCE A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 7809 0
2021-03-01 Moss Aaron D VICE PRESIDENT AND CONTROLLER A - A-Award Non-qualified Stock Options (Right to Buy) 21892 54.91
2021-03-01 Moss Aaron D VICE PRESIDENT AND CONTROLLER A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 1440 0
2021-01-04 Powell Steven D EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, SCE A - M-Exempt Common Stock 891.8383 0
2021-01-04 Powell Steven D EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, SCE D - F-InKind Common Stock 368 60.49
2021-01-04 Powell Steven D EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, SCE D - D-Return Common Stock 0.8383 60.49
2021-01-04 Powell Steven D EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, SCE D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 891.8383 0
2021-01-04 Payne Kevin M PRESIDENT AND CEO, SCE A - M-Exempt Common Stock 5471.426 0
2021-01-04 Payne Kevin M PRESIDENT AND CEO, SCE D - F-InKind Common Stock 2009 60.49
2021-01-04 Payne Kevin M PRESIDENT AND CEO, SCE D - D-Return Common Stock 0.426 60.49
2021-01-04 Payne Kevin M PRESIDENT AND CEO, SCE D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 5471.426 0
2021-01-04 Trapp Jacqueline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2348.4403 0
2021-01-04 Trapp Jacqueline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - F-InKind Common Stock 943 60.49
2021-01-04 Trapp Jacqueline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - D-Return Common Stock 0.4403 60.49
2021-01-04 Trapp Jacqueline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 2348.4403 0
2021-01-04 Moss Aaron D VICE PRESIDENT AND CONTROLLER A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1173.6562 0
2021-01-04 Moss Aaron D VICE PRESIDENT AND CONTROLLER D - F-InKind Common Stock 483 60.49
2021-01-04 Moss Aaron D VICE PRESIDENT AND CONTROLLER D - D-Return Common Stock 0.6562 60.49
2021-01-04 Moss Aaron D VICE PRESIDENT AND CONTROLLER D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1173.6562 0
2021-01-04 Murphy J Andrew SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3304.5024 0
2021-01-04 Murphy J Andrew SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - F-InKind Common Stock 1266 60.49
2021-01-04 Murphy J Andrew SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - D-Return Common Stock 0.5024 60.49
2021-01-04 Murphy J Andrew SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 3304.5024 0
2021-01-04 PIZARRO PEDRO PRESIDENT AND CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 28404.5148 0
2021-01-04 PIZARRO PEDRO PRESIDENT AND CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 11693 60.49
2021-01-04 PIZARRO PEDRO PRESIDENT AND CEO D - D-Return Common Stock 0.5148 60.49
2021-01-04 PIZARRO PEDRO PRESIDENT AND CEO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 28404.5148 0
2021-01-04 Rigatti Maria C. EXEC. VP AND CFO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 6734.15 0
2021-01-04 Rigatti Maria C. EXEC. VP AND CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 2443 60.49
2021-01-04 Rigatti Maria C. EXEC. VP AND CFO D - D-Return Common Stock 0.15 60.49
2021-01-04 Rigatti Maria C. EXEC. VP AND CFO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 6734.15 0
2021-01-04 Choi Caroline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1009.0513 0
2021-01-04 Choi Caroline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - F-InKind Common Stock 415 60.49
2021-01-04 Choi Caroline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - D-Return Common Stock 0.0513 60.49
2021-01-04 Choi Caroline SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1009.0513 0
2021-01-04 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP & GENERAL COUNSEL A - M-Exempt Common Stock 5109.5205 0
2021-01-04 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP & GENERAL COUNSEL D - F-InKind Common Stock 1647 60.49
2021-01-04 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP & GENERAL COUNSEL D - D-Return Common Stock 0.5205 60.49
2021-01-04 Umanoff Adam S EXEC. VP & GENERAL COUNSEL D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 5109.5205 0
2021-01-01 STUNTZ LINDA G director D - M-Exempt Phantom Stock 253.69 0
2021-01-01 STUNTZ LINDA G director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 253.69 0
2021-01-01 STUNTZ LINDA G director D - D-Return Common Stock 0.69 62.82
2020-11-02 Taylor Peter J. director D - S-Sale Common Stock 230 56.9083
2020-08-03 Taylor Peter J. director D - S-Sale Common Stock 230 55.33
2020-07-01 Taylor Peter J. director A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2827.0658 0
2020-07-01 Taylor Peter J. director D - D-Return Common Stock 1.0658 54.31
2020-07-01 Taylor Peter J. director D - M-Exempt Phantom Stock 2827.0658 0
2020-05-04 Taylor Peter J. director D - S-Sale Common Stock 230 56.16
2020-04-23 Trent Keith director A - A-Award Common Stock 2619 0
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Transcripts
Operator:
Good afternoon, and welcome to the Edison International Second Quarter 2024 Financial Teleconference. My name is Julie, and I will be your operator today. [Operator Instructions] Today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Sam Ramraj, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Ramraj, you may begin your conference.
Sam Ramraj:
Thank you, Julie, and welcome, everyone. Our speakers today are President and Chief Executive Officer, Pedro Pizarro and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Maria Rigatti. Also on the call are other members of the management team. Materials supporting today's call are available at www.edisoninvestor.com. These include our Form 10-Q, prepared remarks from Pedro and Maria, and the teleconference presentation. Tomorrow, we will distribute our regular business update presentation. During this call, we will make forward-looking statements about the outlook for Edison International and its subsidiaries. Actual results could differ materially from current expectations. Important factors that could cause different results are set forth in our SEC filings. Please read these carefully. The presentation includes certain outlook assumptions as well as reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure. During the question-and-answer session, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. I will now turn the call over to Pedro.
Pedro Pizarro :
Thanks a lot, Sam, and hello, everyone. Edison International's core EPS for second quarter 2024 was $1.23 bringing year to date core EPS to $2.37. With this strong start to first half of the year, we are confident in reaffirming our 2024 core EPS guidance of $4.75 to $5.05. Based on the progress in SCE's 2025 General Rate Case, including many partial settlements, we are also confident in getting a strong outcome for customers. The funding authorized in the GRC to continue making investments in a reliable, resilient, and ready grid is the linchpin for achieving our 2025 EPS guidance and delivering a 5% to 7% EPS CAGR through 2028. My remarks today include four important insights
Maria Rigatti:
Thanks, Pedro, and good afternoon. In my comments today, I would like to emphasize four key financial messages. First, we are pleased with EIX's financial performance for the first half of the year. Combined with the outlook for the second half, Edison is on-track to deliver yet another year of solid results for 2024. Second, SCE's regulatory outcomes this year have been positive. Based on the continuing progress on the 2 key ongoing CPUC proceedings, the 2025 GRC and TKM cost recovery, we are confident in getting good outcomes for customers. Third, with SCE having the lowest system average rate among California IOUs, it is best-positioned to address load growth and resulting capital needs as customers' dependency on and use of electricity grows. Fourth, EIX's equity needs to fund our substantial capital program over the several years are among the lowest in the industry. Let's begin with a brief review of our second quarter results. EIX reported core EPS of $1.23. As you can see from the year-on-year quarter variance analysis shown on Page 11, core earnings grew by $0.22. This EPS growth was primarily due to higher CPUC revenue authorized in Track 4 of the 2021 GRC, higher authorized rates of return and the final decision on SCE's CEMA application. Partially offsetting these drivers was higher interest expense associated with debt for wildfire claims payments. EIX Parent and other was in line with the same period last year. On the regulatory front, we are pleased with the outcomes this year. For instance, as I just mentioned, the CPUC recently issued a favorable decision on SCE's CEMA application. Additionally, SCE received approval in July for interim rate recovery in its 2022 WMVM proceeding, enabling the collection of $210 million of the $384 million request in customer rates beginning in October. Also in July, the CPUC approved the Energy Division's resolution regarding the implementation of the cost of capital mechanism for 2024. When we look at where bond yields are today, it's clear that the interest rate environment that triggered the mechanism was sustained. Thus, the 10.75% ROE should stay in place also for 2025. These regulatory decisions, plus the numerous others we have received over the last few years, have significantly strengthened our balance sheet and credit metrics. Since 2021, SCE has recovered more than $4 billion with another approximately $2 billion expected through 2025, all of which you can see on Page 12. I would like to now comment on the two key ongoing regulatory proceedings, starting with SCE’s 2025 GRC. Page 13 provides an update on proceedings which remain on track. During the Q2, SCE filed its update testimony and all parties recently filed their opening brief. We are pleased with the tremendous work SCE has done to narrow the focus of the proceeding. SCE has reached partial settlements covering 12 areas of the GRC, representing nearly 20% of the O&M request and about 8% of the capital request. On the TKM cost recovery application, Cal Advocates was the only party to submit prepared testimony. They criticized the maturity of SCE's pre-fire mitigation measures leading up to the unprecedented 2017 fire season, but did not put forward a specific disallowance proposal. SCE served strong rebuttal testimony on July 11, identifying key flaws and Cal Advocate's testimony and highlighting the intervener's heavy and incorrect reliance on hindsight in its review of the record. As for next steps, the ALJ extended the schedule, such as the motion for settlement approval or case management statement is due on August 7, and hearings will be in November or January. In summary, based on the evidence put forward so far in this proceeding, we reaffirm the strength of our cost recovery request. We look forward to keeping you informed on further developments on this front. Please turn to Page 14 for an update on the resolution of SCE's legacy wildfires. Having made substantial progress, SCE has now resolved 98% of TKM individual plaintiff claims and 92% of Woolsey individual plaintiff claims. SCE will file its Woolsey cost recovery application in the third quarter. SCE's capital and rate base forecasts shown on Pages 15 and 16 are consistent with last quarter's disclosures. SCE's 2025 GRC underpins our forecast as the utility continues to make investments necessary to meet the critical objectives of reliability, resiliency and readiness to meet customers' needs today and in the future. In addition to our forecast, SCE continues to target filing standalone applications over the next couple of years that will give it opportunities to deploy capital above and beyond the rate case outcome. The NextGen ERP system application is tracking for late this year with the Advanced Metering 2.0 application expected in 2025. I would also like to mention that in May, CAISO selected SCE, in partnership with Lotus Infrastructure, as the winning bidder for the North of SONGS to Serrano transmission project. At expected completion in 2032, this project will add about $245 million to SCE's FERC rate base. This builds on the more than $2 billion of transmission spending that was directly awarded to SCE as the incumbent utility in CAISO's 2022-2023 transmission plan. Turning to EPS guidance. Page 17 shows our 2024 core EPS guidance and modeling considerations. We are pleased with the start to the quarter, and the CEMA approved and no other CPUC decisions built into 2024 guidance, we are confident in achieving the range of $4.75 to $5.05. Also, I'm pleased to share that we've completed EIX's financing plan with the issuance of $500 million of debt at the end of June and having achieved our planned $100 million of equity via internal programs earlier in the year. I would now like to reemphasize that, for the 2025 through 2028 period, we have equity needs of only $400 million in total, even though we plan to deploy substantial amounts of capital. As you can see on the right side of Page 18, SCE's strong cash flow generation and the incremental debt to finance accretive growth address nearly all of our cash needs. We credit this to our strong financial discipline, efficient financing execution and the significant memo account recovery I just mentioned. Let me conclude by saying that California's clean energy future depends on substantial investment in the grid as the economy depends even more on electricity. Affordability and equity will be key components to driving greater adoption of transportation and building electrification. With SCE having the lowest system average rate among California IOUs, it is very well-positioned to make substantial capital investments as customers' dependency on and use of electricity grows. That concludes my remarks, and I'll pass it back to Sam.
Sam Ramraj:
Julie, please open the call for questions. As a reminder, we request you to limit yourself to one question and one follow-up, so everyone in line has the opportunity to ask questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from Michael Lonegan with Evercore ISI.
Michael Lonegan:
Obviously, you've reached a partial settlement in the GRC representing 19% of O&M and 8% of the capital request, certainly a positive development, but still a good amount not settled on. Just wondering how you're thinking about the key debates remaining and what gives you confidence in a constructive final decision?
Pedro Pizarro:
Michael, good to hear you. Let me just start. To me, I think the headline continues to be that, in this rate case, when you look at the ingoing intervener positions – now when you sum it all up, they still landed with rate base growth in line with our range. That I think is a very constructive place to be at the beginning of a case. Where we are with the case now. We will continue to work through issues. As you said, we have some partial settlements. I think the SCE team has done a very nice job, putting forth the case on why we need the investments that we requested for a reliable, resilient and ready grid, and we'll just continue to work our way through the process. Maria or Steve Powell, anything you would add?
Maria Rigatti:
I'd like to say the proceeding is still on track from a time perspective. We have been able to settle these areas that are noted in the materials. That means that, we can focus on a narrow and narrow set of issues. But again, Pedro's point, at the end of the day, the proposals that the interveners put into the proceeding at this point still tied to -- and are consistent with the lower end of our range. I think we have a lot of opportunity here to do something that's beneficial to customers.
Michael Lonegan:
And then secondly from me, you talked about load growth materializing faster-than-expected. Just wondering if you're expecting incremental investment in the planning period through 2028. Potentially, how much could we expect and when and how would you think about financing that incremental spending?
Maria Rigatti:
So Michael, I think our team is -- I think you noticed we were in the planning phase for a plan that's going to be submitted shortly. The team will need to look and continue to evaluate the precise plans that our customers are bringing forward to us, and that will allow us to then lay out when the investments will come back into the capital plan and then come back into rate base. To the extent that we see these things materializing within the GRC cycle, we do have the ability to reprioritize capital. We've mentioned that before, and we have built flexibility into the rate case. And then beyond that, we'll look at other mechanisms that allow us to file separate applications and there are a number of avenues that we could pursue. But Steve, you've been working with the team on the plan. So Steve, do you want to jump in?
Steve Powell:
Sure. So in terms of the load growth, we've certainly seen an acceleration of customer demand. And so we're still evaluating, I'd say, taking probability weighting those requests based on the completeness of them and figuring out how much additional structure will be needed to support them. We're constantly readjusting our plans based on various factors and so the increase in customer demand has been important. It's been a fair amount of electrification load, but we're also seeing growth in residential, particularly from new home starts, which have accelerated the last couple of years beyond expectations. There's a fair amount of commercial industrial loads. So it's a pretty diverse set of load growth that we've seen and we will continue to make adjustments and certainly whether it's GRC or alternative funding approaches will be on the table. We continue to provide ideas into what's called the high DER proceeding at the Public Utilities Commission where they're still evaluating different ways that we can look for investment opportunities in the middle of a GRC cycle. So that's our approach right now.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.
Shar Pourreza:
Just a couple of quick ones here. Just on the legacy wildfire cost application, obviously, the constructive sign to see settlements, potential opportunities and kind of moving procedural schedule to accommodate that. Can you just elaborate on any issues that remain debated that would go into hearing potentially? Would you settle for anything less than 100% and under what incentive would you do that?
Pedro Pizarro:
Hey, Shar, this one, as you can imagine, it's a live proceeding. And we really can't comment on potential settlements beyond just saying that we're certainly open to that and always willing to engage with parties. And we think the team did a strong job and showing their prudency. But I don't think we're in a place where we can comment on specific elements of the case at this point. Apologies for that.
Maria Rigatti:
And Shar, just procedurally, August 7 is when either a settlement would be filed or we would file a case management statement. And in the case management statement, the issues that are still to be addressed during hearings and/or any other stipulations would then be part of that statement. And then the hearing then will be scheduled for that November or January time frame. So that's the process that we'll be going through that you can monitor.
Shar Pourreza:
Okay, perfect. We'll look for that. And then just -- and obviously you noted a small buyback program basically focused on share-based comp. How are you thinking about maybe capital allocation in light of the legacy wildfire claims recovery if that recovery potentially over equitizes relative to your credit targets – your metrics?
Maria Rigatti:
Sure. Well, I mean obviously we have debt that's outstanding at SCE that went to fund the claims payments. As we get recovery, our as you know, our proposal has been that we would securitize that. So we would be able to, defease the debt that's already been issued. We can reallocate that debt to rate base financing, if you will, so sort of make sure that we stay within our capital structure. The recovery does improve our credit metrics. Every $1 billion is 40 to 50 basis points of improved credit metrics. But I think as we go through that process, then we can start to look at, as refinancings of equity content securities come up at the holding company, where we can replace those, which are, of course, because they have equity content a little higher cost with regular way debt, we'll take all of that into consideration, as we look at the recovery and from the wildfire claims. I will say, we will continue to have a 15% to 17% FFO-to-debt framework for the company.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Nick Campanella with Barclays.
Nick Campanella:
I wanted to ask on notable start on full year '24, just given we're kind of halfway through the year. Are you kind of trending towards the higher end of your range? Do you just still have confidence in the midpoint at this point? Kind of what puts you higher?
Maria Rigatti:
Nick, it's Maria. We're very confident in our guidance. We've reaffirmed it. I think that over the course of the year, different quarters have events that happen within them. We are very confident in our guidance and we think we're right on track.
Nick Campanella:
Okay. And then just I guess a follow-up on Shar's question. Just you're talking about the load demand equation that could lead to accelerated CapEx. Just as the plan stands today, can you remind us, if you were to, is there like a level that you could fund additional capital without additional equity?
Maria Rigatti:
Nick, I think that really depends when the capital comes in and when we have to make the investments. As I said, we have that 15% to 17% FFO-to-debt financing framework that we work towards and where we are in that range will dictate, whether we can continue to use our existing financing plan or if we need to do anything beyond that. We will, of course, as Steve pointed out earlier, we could re-prioritize some of the spending within our GRC. We have some flexibility there and we've actually noted that in our GRC, or we could go beyond that and look at some other mechanisms to also get cost recovery on a timely basis as well.
Operator:
Our next question comes from David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley.
David Arcaro:
Maybe a quick clarification on load growth. I was just wondering, is that already faster than what you were thinking last quarter? You mentioned the 2% to 3% load growth in the near-term through 2028 and then accelerating above 3% beyond that. Are you now thinking that it's kind of higher within that range or even faster than you were just previously thinking?
Pedro Pizarro:
I think at this point, we're still seeing a 2% to 3% in the near-term, but the point we're making is that, as we look at a 10 year forecast, we're certainly seeing that accelerating and we're watching it closely in the interim. It was really fascinating to see that in just two years, that 10-year forecast jumped up by 35%. As Steve was saying, as the team is getting -- as SCE is getting customer requests, putting all those together, not all of those come through in the end. That's why Steve mentioned that, they probably will wait them and track them. We'll continue to provide updates as if that changes meaningfully. But I think looking at the near term, it continues to move along at 2% to 3%, but the long term is really showing that increase and we'll see what happens in between. Anything you would say differently, Steve?
Steve Powell:
I would just add that -- so I'd say first, particularly the new customer demand, the specific project, certainly gives a lot more certainty to the need for the investments on the front end and during the GRC cycle. I would want to note that the 2% to 3% we're talking about that you heard last time, that's about the total energy, the kilowatt hour growth. This demand is the specific local capacity needs of customers. And so this is really driving the infrastructure the distribution level sort of upgrades as opposed to the total energy consumption that's happening. Now those can head in the same direction. So I think this does bolster the view around the 2% to 3%. But at this point, we don't see it driving it well out of that range in the near term.
David Arcaro:
And then, let's see, Pedro, I was curious your perspective on -- I thought it was interesting just that recently the CPUC rolled out a planned procurement for some kind of next generation technologies within California, some long duration energy storage, offshore wind, geothermal. So I guess I was just wondering, do you have any early thinking on whether utilities like yourself would be involved in any of those projects or procurement and just how that could maybe reshape the California generation landscape over time?
Pedro Pizarro :
Yeah. And David, I'll start with maybe a big picture comment and Steve may have more to add here as well. At the highest level, if you go back to our count on to 2045 white paper, we see this need for California to be adding significant amounts of large scale renewables and other clean resources. And so at one level, what the CPUC is doing in this proposal is to start filling in the blanks in terms of some of the near and midterm procurement. The team is still going through the details of that, right? And some things we want to look at are relative timing, what's the likelihood of the technology developing and frankly that development being feasible within the time frames that the PUC has laid out. So more to come on that as our team evaluates what the PUC put out. But directionally, we certainly see the need to develop a whole host of resources in order to meet the demand that's coming. Steve?
Steve Powell:
I'd say, we agree with PUC on the need for some of these next generation technologies, whether it's enhanced geothermal, offshore wind. They still need to be derisked, and they still need to prove they can be built on a timely and affordable basis. Appreciate that the state the PUC is directing the procurement again so we can get that process going. And they've asked the Department of Water Resources, or they're in the process of that proposal, having DWR go and do that procurement. So we want to make sure that procurement is done really effectively because ultimately this hits customer bills, and we've got to monitor we've got to manage the customer bills while also advancing the technologies. So that's our focus is making sure it gets done efficiently and effectively, and there's a lot of investment like these that are going to need to happen across the state.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Ryan Levine with Citi.
Ryan Levine:
Hi everybody. As you're preparing to file the next gen ERP application next quarter, would you be able to frame broadly the magnitude of the investment opportunity? And given the acceleration of the longer term load forecast that you highlighted in your prepared remarks, does that have any implication for the attractiveness of the next gen ERP system?
Maria Rigatti:
Yes. When we file the application, we are going to lay out of course the cost of the system, but also really importantly we're going to lay out the benefits, because that is really going to be a big component. The NextGen system will be, of course, related to the financial reporting aspect of the business, but also has a lot to do with work management and becoming more efficient in that regard. There'll be a lot of benefits that we can talk through when we file our application. In terms of whether or not it competes with load growth, we need to build out the infrastructure to meet the demand that we're seeing from our customers, but we also need to run an efficient T&D operation and do the financial statements appropriately, as you appreciate. I don't think they're in competition with each other. Also, I think it's really related to the point that Pedro made earlier in his prepared remarks about where we see the system average rate going over the next several years. When you get a chance to look at the materials, you'll be able to see that, those rate increases are consistent with inflation and we have built in our entire GRC request, the NextGen application, the AMI application and 100% cost recovery on 1,718 wildfire claims. With all of that, we are still consistent with our patience of SAR forecast.
Ryan Levine:
Thank you. And then one follow-up. In terms of the low growth forecast, the impact of EV growth, is there anything you're looking for from federal policy that could impact both growth in your service territory that's embedded in your guidance that you highlighted today?
Pedro Pizarro:
One way that I think about it, Ryan, is that, we have -- we really are being driven, open intended, in California by the state's requirements and targets for EVs, for having net-zero vehicles by 2035, et cetera. That really in some sense sets the demand picture, because that's the binding constraint. Where the federal government comes in is in a couple of ways. One is, certainly the incentives that are being provided by the Inflation Reduction Act are really helpful in lowering the ultimate cost of the transition to consumers. Certainly, both as Edison and jointly the industry as EEI are very focused on preserving those IRA benefits regardless of what administration we have next in Washington. That's a message that we've been carrying already really forcefully. I think fortunately, with you although you might hear some comments from some camps about potential reversal of the IRA, I think in general, you're hearing -- understanding that those benefits are really flowing across all states, both more red states and more blue states. In fact, probably the majority of benefits are flowing to red states right now. I think there's a sense that they're having an impact in the economy. We're hopeful that, our customers will continue to benefit from those incentives, but at the same time, we see a commitment in California to the transition that is unwavering regardless of federal support. The other federal touch point here, of course, is the clean air provisions in California's favor. And so that's the other element to watch in all of this. But again, I don't see California shifting its focus away from encouraging the adoption of electric vehicles. Does that help with the question?
Operator:
Our next question comes from Anthony Crowdell with Mizuho.
Anthony Crowdell:
Hey. I just have a quick one, and I -- you may not want to answer it. It's kind of in the line of the one Shar was asking earlier. Just, how should we interpret on the TKM recovery? How do we interpret just only Cal Advocates file testimony? Could we look at it as similar to like a GRC when the rest of the parties may not sign on to sometimes they don't sign on to a settlement, they don't object. I'm just wondering what's the best way to interpret that?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes, I think you started to answer with the last part of your question there. There are lots of opportunities for parties to voice their views in these proceedings. It is a little different from a rate from a general rate case. And so not reading a lot into this initial step or certainly the opportunity for other parties to express interest as we move along.
Anthony Crowdell:
Great. That’s all I had. Congrats on a good quarter.
Maria Rigatti:
Thanks.
Pedro Pizarro:
Yeah, thanks, Anthony.
Operator:
And that was our last question. I will turn the call back to Mr. Sam Ramraj.
Sam Ramraj:
Thank you for joining us. This concludes the conference call. Have a good rest of the day. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good afternoon, and welcome to the Edison International First Quarter 2024 Financial Teleconference. My name is Missy, and I'll be your operator today. [Operator Instructions] Today's call is being recorded.
I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Sam Ramraj, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Ramraj, you may begin your conference.
Sam Ramraj:
Thank you, Missy, and welcome, everyone. Our speakers today are President and Chief Executive Officer, Pedro Pizarro; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Maria Rigatti. Also on the call are other members of the management team.
Materials supporting today's call are available at www.edisoninvestor.com. These include our Form 10-Q, prepared remarks from Pedro and Maria and the teleconference presentation. Tomorrow, we will distribute our regular business update presentation. During this call, we'll make forward-looking statements about the outlook for Edison International and its subsidiaries. Actual results could differ materially from current expectations. Important factors that could cause different results are set forth in our SEC filings. Please read these carefully. The presentation includes certain outlook assumptions as well as reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure. During the question-and-answer session, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. I will now turn the call over to Pedro.
Pedro Pizarro:
Well, thank you, Sam, and good afternoon, everyone. Edison International's core EPS for first quarter 2024 was $1.13. We are pleased with our start to the year, and we are confident in affirming our 2024 core EPS guidance of $4.70 to $5.05. We also remain confident in delivering on our long-term EPS growth targets of 5% to 7% for 2021 through 2025 and similarly for 2025 to 2028.
Our conviction remains grounded in the drivers that continue to support our outlook. Starting with SCE's legacy wildfires. The utility continues to advance the process of resolving claims. Based on the latest information available, which Maria will expand on, the best estimate of losses increased by $490 million or $333 million after tax. With wildfires now a national issue, litigation outcomes outside of California are impacting the cost to resolve claims everywhere. We remain committed to achieving ultimate certainty by working through the process expeditiously and seeking cost recovery. We are confident about the case SCE has made in TKM and will make for [indiscernible]. I would like to reiterate that we strongly believe that cost recovery is warranted and in the public interest, and we conservatively have not reflected the significant potential in our financial projections. On the operations front, I want to start by highlighting Edison's leadership of the industry's response to climate change. Recent wildfires across the nation have provided a stark reminder of the changing climate conditions, which underscore the need for further enhancing resiliency and adaptation as we transition to a clean energy future. SCE is a clear leader in wildfire mitigation and is sharing its expertise with peers across the industry, who are now experiencing similar conditions. We have shown that wildfire risk associated with utility infrastructure is manageable. Also, our state has dramatically increased resources for fire suppression including having the largest civil aerial firefighting fleet in the world. Our regulators understand the importance of financially healthy utilities. AB 1054 put in place constructive prudency standards and the insurance fund. Over the past five years, SCE has invested about $5 billion of wildfire mitigation-related capital and expects to invest more than $6 billion over the next five years. This investment ranks among the highest levels in the utility sector. On Page 3, you can see the numbers and the results. I will point out that SCE has not seen ignitions due to the failure of covered conductor, and the program is well recognized for its effectiveness. Putting this all together into what it means for reducing future risk of losses from wildfires. We estimate the risk is 85% to 88% lower than pre-2018. Turning to Page 5. Let me highlight three key points that enhance the significance of this reduction. First, physical mitigation dominates. Unlike heavy reliance on operational measures like power shutoffs or faster settings, the primary driver behind this risk reduction is physical mitigation. This is important because it means a much lower burden for customers. Second, SCE's estimate comes from Moody's RMS industry-leading model, widely trusted by insurers. This model considers intricate factors, terrain, vegetation, historical data and more to predict wildfire probabilities. Third, to estimate the probabilities of losses in dollar terms, we employ a stochastic model. This model runs 50,000 simulations, considering potential emissions and fire sizes while incorporating SCE's mitigation strategy. This approach contrasts with simpler deterministic methods used by some other companies and regulators that only analyze past events. In summary, our rigorous data-driven approach validated externally paints a clear picture. SCE's risk profile today is dramatically different than in the past as a result of the utilities mitigation efforts. To focus specifically on grid hardening, Pages 6 and 7 highlight SCE's significant progress to date. I'm pleased with the progress our team has made, and I look forward to continued progress making our communities even safer. By the end of 2025, SCE expects to be approaching 90% physical hardening of its distribution lines and high fire risk areas. With over 7,300 miles already underground and more than 5,700 overhead miles hardened, SCE's total hardened miles surpassed those of all other California IOUs combined. We're really proud of these efforts to swiftly enhance grid safety for SCE's customers. Turning to load growth. After years of relatively flat demand, we are seeing 2% to 3% annual growth in the coming years with an inflection point above 3% annual growth beginning in 2028. In SCE service area, we project this growth will be driven by the continued adoption of electric vehicles, increases in industrial electrification and higher penetration of building electrification. In California, 1/4 of new cars sold in 2023 were zero emission vehicles, and that trend is continuing into 2024. As another indication of this acceleration, the state recently reached a milestone of over 100,000 public EV chargers now installed throughout California, and that is on top of over 500,000 at home chargers. Southern California already has a significant data center presence. So while we also see low growth potential from this sector, we expect transportation, electrification to drive a more substantial increase in the region's electricity demand. As our investment levels grow to support economy-wide electrification, affordability remains top of mind. We have demonstrated cost leadership over the years, resulting in the lowest system average rate among the major California IOUs. This discipline of managing our cost is a continuous focus. For example, we previously highlighted that the 2025 GRC application included $41 million of annual O&M savings as an immediate benefit for customers. Well, building on that in SCE's rebuttal testimony submitted earlier this month, the utility identified another $35 million of annual O&M savings to further mitigate the revenue increase. 2024 is very much a year of execution across the business, and we are pleased with our start to the year. SCE continues to make significant investments and make the grid safer year after year. We continue to see constructive regulatory decisions. SCE is also making progress toward full resolution of the legacy wildfires. All of this allows us to remain confident in our ability to achieve our near and long-term commitments. I will conclude by reemphasizing that Edison International offers an excellent investment vehicle to participate in California's clean energy transition. SCE is hardening the grid every day to the benefit of customers and investors, and its wildfire mitigation execution has shown positive results for five wildfire seasons running. California is at the forefront of electrification, decarbonization and climate adaptation. As an electric-only, wires-focused utility, SCE is in a strong position to focus on the future which will be electric led. Our commitment to clean energy leadership and innovation is well recognized in the industry and has only been further elevated as the impacts of climate change become more prominent. Ensuring the greatest reliable, resilient and ready is paramount to achieving the clean energy transition and the driving theme of our investments and growth. With that, I'll turn it over to Maria for her financial report.
Maria Rigatti:
Thanks, Pedro, and good afternoon, everyone. In my comments today, I will cover first quarter 2024 results, provide an update on regulatory proceedings and discuss 2024 EPS guidance. I also want to reaffirm our continued confidence in achieving our EPS growth targets.
Let me begin with first quarter results. EIX reported core EPS of $1.13. As you can see from the year-over-year quarterly variance analysis shown on Page 8, core earnings grew by $0.04, primarily due to higher CPUC revenue authorized in track 4 of the 2021 GRC and higher authorized rates of returns, partially offset by higher interest expense associated with debt for wildfire claims payments. EIX Parents and Other was in line with the same period last year. Turning to SCE's capital and rate base forecast shown on Pages 9 and 10. These are consistent with last quarter's disclosures. The bulk of the capital plan will be addressed by SCE's 2025 GRC. The rate case includes investments necessary to meet the critical objectives of reliability, resiliency and readiness to meet customers' needs today and in the future. This includes gearing up traditional distribution grid investments on activities such as infrastructure placement and load growth as well as continued wildfire mitigation. SCE is facing the fastest electricity demand growth in decades. Thus, the capital plan reflects resuming traditional levels of infrastructure placements necessary for system reliability and making significant investments to support load growth, driven in large part by transportation electrification. During the first quarter, interveners submitted their testimony and recommendations in the GRC proceeding. The key points are summarized on Page 11. In summary, we are not surprised by Cal Advocates and Turn's focus areas, and we are confident that we will secure a good outcome for customers. Altogether, the recommendations would translate to rate base growth of approximately 6%, which is consistent with our projected 6% to 8% rate base growth range. Further on the regulatory front, SCE is advancing a handful of other key proceedings, including the 2022 CEMA, the TKM cost recovery application and the recently filed WMCE application. Earlier this month, SCE received a favorable proposed decision in the 2022 CEMA proceeding. If adopted, it would authorize $191 million of revenue that would be recovered over 12 months and fully approved $312 million of capital expenditures. The PD is scheduled to be voted on at the CPUC's May 30 meeting. It's a big positive to get this decision earlier in the year and its approval strengthens our 2024 EPS guidance. Additionally, the ALJ and the cost of capital proceeding recently issued a proposed decision that would deny intervenors petition for modification that sought to suspend the cost of capital mechanism. This decision is consistent with the intent articulated by the CPUC when the cost of capital mechanism was originally adopted and reinforces our views on the topic and the constructive California regulatory environment. Page 12 provides an update on the resolution of SCE's legacy wildfires, which continues to advance. The change in the estimated losses was primarily driven by information obtained related to the Woolsey Fire mediation program. Recall that plaintiffs who had opted into the program were required to submit their demand by a deadline in February. The demands received revealed that more plaintiffs intend to continue to pursue claims as considerably fewer plaintiffs have dropped their litigation in Woolsey and observed in the TKM process. Settlement outcomes during the quarter also exceeded previously estimated values. SCE has now resolved 97% of TKM individual plaintiff claims and 86% of Woolsey individual plaintiff claims and is on track to file the Woolsey cost recovery application in Q3. I will remind you that SCE intends to seek full recovery of all eligible costs, so the increase will be reflected in the cost recovery applications. In the TKM proceeding, next steps include intervener testimony due May 29 and SCE's rebuttal testimony due June 28. Turning to EPS guidance. Page 13 shows our 2024 core EPS guidance and modeling considerations. We are pleased with our start to the year and are confident in affirming the range of $4.75 to $5.05. As Pedro mentioned, the estimated losses for the 2017 and 2018 events increased. As a reminder, SCE funds the cost to resolve claims with debt, which is excluded from its regulatory capital structure. Thus, SCE expects to issue additional debt, which will result in about $0.02 of incremental interest expense in 2024. Regardless, we maintain our confidence in achieving our EPS guidance. SCE's cost recovery applications include the financing costs associated with resolving claims. So this increase will also be reflected in the cost recovery application. On the financing front, I want to underscore that we have limited equity needs as we continue to deploy substantial amounts of capital and extend our dividend track record. As shown on Page 14, the Parent's 2024 financing plan is nearly complete and we have already addressed our equity needs via internal programs. Also, we maintain our forecast of about $100 million of equity per year through 2028. As you can see on the right side of Page 15, SCE's strong cash flow generation and the incremental debt to finance accretive growth address nearly all our cash needs through 2028. We have significantly strengthened our balance sheet through efficient financing execution along with regulatory asset recovery of about $4 billion over the last three years and approximately $2 billion expected through 2025. This ability to track and recover prior spending is yet another constructive feature of our regulation, which balances the ability to execute critical work with strong regulatory oversight. In recognition of our balance sheet strength, we were pleased that last week, S&P affirmed our credit ratings and stable outlook. Importantly, they lowered our FFO to debt downgrade threshold to 14% from 15%. Noting the key driver of this action is the company's decreasing business risk. We're proud to see S&P's recognition of our leadership role in mitigating wildfire risk, especially in an environment where climate risk and credit thresholds across the industry are increasing. Lastly, I'll remind you that we've provided modeling sensitivities to help you quantify what cost recovery for the 2017 and 2018 events means for a few key metrics. Each $1 billion of recovery would improve our FFO to debt ratio by about 40 to 50 basis points and reduce interest expense by $35 million per year. These benefits don't only accrue to our owners. We believe customers will benefit by potentially avoiding as much as $4.9 billion of excess financing costs, a clear win for overall affordability. Let me conclude by saying that our confidence in meeting our financial targets remain strong. Underpinning this confidence in the near term and long term is our focus on execution. Execution to deliver on our earnings targets, execution to advance regulatory proceedings and execution of our cost management initiatives, the cornerstone for SCE's cost leadership and lowest system average rate among major IOUs in California. That concludes my remarks, and back to you, Sam.
Sam Ramraj:
Missy, please open the call for questions. As a reminder, we request you to limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. So everyone in line has the opportunity to ask questions.
Operator:
Our first question comes from Nick Campanella with Barclays.
Nicholas Campanella:
I guess just to start with the charge. I guess it's good that we move past this kind of mediation program deadline, but you did highlight an unfavorable litigation environment and settlements kind of exceeding previous estimates. Can you just maybe kind of talk about your confidence level that we wouldn't see another kind of revision higher here as we get to the third quarter and knock out that remaining $800 million. Is this the kind of last remaining revision in your mind? Or how should we kind of think about as you kind of progress to that third quarter deadline?
Pedro Pizarro:
Nick, I appreciate the question. Look, I'll just start by pointing you to our disclosures, right? We've said all along that every quarter, we go back in, we test whether there's a need to change research and adjust them so that we are providing our best estimate of the best estimate, right? We really want to make sure we're doing this down the middle of the road by the buck per cap. And so we did pass a pretty important milestone, as you said, with that Woolsey event. And so we now have the benefit of analyzing what came in, and we saw the factors that we commented on both less drop-off in overall claims and higher expectation of awards.
As we continue here, I think like I said in my comments, honestly, Nick, true certainty here will come with moving through this process as quickly as we can, doing it right, and getting to the finish line. And I'm really pleased that we're certainly a lot closer to the finish line on TKM, as you saw from our having made the filing last year. We are approaching that important milestone with Woolsey, where we'll be ready to do our filing, and we continue to be on track to do that in Q3. Every quarter, we'll continue to test things. And we kind of by definition, if we're giving you the best estimate we can, it means that it has probably an equal chance of reality being higher or being lower, right? So we'll continue to retest that every quarter. But again, our focus is on completing the process and getting this fully behind us.
Maria Rigatti:
And maybe, Nick, just one other thing to underscore Pedro's comment about completion, driving final certainty. I'll point out two numbers that we've already said today on the call, individual plaintiffs are the largest component of what's going on here. 97% of the TKM individual plaintiffs have been settled and 86% of the Woolsey individual plaintiffs have been settled. So that's really what's driving us to also comment that we're on track for a Q3 filing for Woolsey Cost recovering.
Nicholas Campanella:
And then as I kind of think about the balance sheet impacts, and I think it's good to see that you're still committed to just only $100 million of equity a year here. That's not changing. You just got the 14% to 15% range as you kind of talked about on FFO to debt side in your prepared remarks, just net of this charge, kind of where do you stand in the ranges now? And then what are the kind of the drivers to kind of put you higher or lower as we get through the year and into '25?
Maria Rigatti:
Sure. I think the latest report that I've seen from S&P actually has is just over 14% FFO to debt. So inside or above their downward rational range, 15% to 17% FFO to debt is still our objective. The financing plan that we provided last quarter and that we have, again, in the materials for this quarter is consistent with moving into that range over the next several years. We're making good progress on that as we continue to get claims put behind us but also as we continue to recover those minimal accounts, $4 billion over the last three years, $2 billion more through 2025. That, plus the growing rate base and the ability to earn on that and depreciation, et cetera, that's really moving us through that. And we tested a lot of different scenarios, and that's how we came up with $100 million of equity every year through 2028.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Michael Lonegan with Evercore.
Michael Lonegan:
On the best estimate of losses for Woolsey, you spoke about a limited number of plaintiffs that have received extensions. Just wondering if you could share more detail about that, the kind of visibility you have into that because obviously, those losses would probably be harder to estimate.
Maria Rigatti:
Yes. So the process that we went through with the deadline in February, I think as we noted, a couple of times in the past is when people put their information in, sometimes they put in 100% what we've asked for, sometimes they put in less than what we've asked for, and sometimes they ask for extensions. In this case, a number of plaintiffs did receive extensions. We know some things about their claims, we've been able to group them, but we will get more information as they get to their claims deadlines, which are over the next couple of months.
The work that we've done to evaluate them is similar to the work that we've done in prior quarters where we've taken the experience that we've had across a broad range of claims. And obviously, we keep settling more claims, so we have more information. And we've applied that understanding to these other demands. Again, we will get more information about those as we progress through the next quarter.
Michael Lonegan:
And then secondly for me, you've spoken about filing stand-alone applications for the $2-plus billion of incremental capital for NextGen ERP and the AMI 2.0 programs. Just wondering if you could -- if you have a more specific time line on when you plan to file these applications when they could be rolled into your plan? And how much incremental equity we could potentially expect to finance it?
Maria Rigatti:
Sure. So we are expecting that the next-gen ERP application late 2024 and that the AMI, the smart meter application would be in 2025. Across the two of them, a couple of billion dollars in capital. As we think about financing for those additional or incremental capital requirements, we're really going to -- obviously, SCE will always finance in accordance with its authorized capital structure. And we'll see where we are in terms of our credit metrics. As I said, we're growing strongly into our credit metric range. And as long as we can stay in that range, we'll be minimizing the amount of equity that would otherwise be required for those incremental capital opportunities.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Greg Orrill with UBS.
Gregg Orrill:
Just wondering if there's anything to be watching for in terms of trends on transmission CapEx through the Cal ISO planning process or otherwise that you're thinking about?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes. Maybe I'll start on that one, and Steve Powell might have thoughts as well. So you've seen that the Cal ISO is really over the last few years, fully engaged in the long-term planning process. I think they recognize along with other parties in the state that in order to help the state achieve its net zero goals by 2045, it's a lot of work to be done. And our own countdown to 2045 white paper last fall had a pretty significant investment need statewide for the wires to make all of this work. So we estimate that the rate of transmission [evasions] will need to be 4x what they've been historically.
So you've seen that there's been now a couple of plans that the Cal ISO has cycled through in the last couple of years. I think Maria mentioned already or certainly it's in our materials, but you see there's something like $2 billion of capital for something like 17 projects where SCE is entitled to the right of first refusal as an incumbent to do the work. So we expect that SCE will do that work. In addition, Cal ISO has a competitive solicitation process for projects that are new that are not extensions of existing projects. SCE now has one application pending waiting to hear on in this current process. But Steve, I know that since you engaged with Cal ISO on your team, maybe comment more on what's next in terms of their continued planning process.
Steven Powell:
Yes. So the CAISO runs its annual transmission planning process each year. And so you can look to each year having that plan come out. And the most recent plan that was released for the '23-'24 cycle, most of the projects are up in Northern California, although there was about $90 million of incumbent projects for SCE to build in our territory. So each of those plans will identify additional opportunities for us, we'll evaluate if we participate in future competitive solicitations on those. In the longer term, the CAISO also does a 20-year outlook.
And the last 20-year outlook, which came out a couple of years ago, pointing towards about $30 billion of investment needed in transmission over the next 20 years. The CAISO is in the process of updating that outlook. They've put out some draft information recently but really the hub will final report in June that will give you the more of the 20-year outlook, but it continues to show a need for more and more resources to fulfill the clean energy targets that was backed by a whole lot of transmission.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan.
Jeremy Tonet:
Just want to start off with, I guess, a broader question. And just with summer approaching, can you provide an update on buyer conditions you're seeing across your territory right now? And I guess, overall expectations into the season given all of the derisking has been accomplished over time?
Pedro Pizarro:
I'll answer your question quickly, and then I'll follow up with the real message I want you to walk away with. The quick answer is, I think the latest stuff I have seen published suggest that it seems to be an average or maybe even a little bit below average risk season. That's not the real message I want you to walk away with, we know that in the years ahead, with climate change, we're going to see increased, not decreased climate-driven wildfire risk conditions, but are adapting for tomorrow, white paper a couple of years ago pointed to something like a 20% increase in climate-driven wildfire risk through 2050.
And so the real headline here is the stuff I talked about in my prepared remarks, all right? the amount of hardening we've done, the 85% to 88% risk that we've taken off the table. And that doesn't even include the risk taken off the table by the state having doubled down on its firefighting capabilities. So obviously, it's interesting, and I know investors ask us from time to time, how does this year look or how does any given year look. But frankly, I think that is less and less the question. And more and more, the question you should be asking is, how are we continuing to do in our hardening and our other measures. And I think we're doing well there.
Maria Rigatti:
And [PJ], even with all of the risk reduction, we're constantly vigilant. So just to underscore that point, we're continuing not just to do more and more grid hardening but also refining our models, looking at new technologies. I think that's some of what you can see when you look at the S&P report as well is just that ongoing attention that we are paying to every aspect of mitigating the risk.
Pedro Pizarro:
And using new technologies at it, right? So it was nice since you said, Maria, to have S&P recognized that. Think about PSPS. That has been an important tool, but now it only accounts for something like 10% of our overall risk reduction. And we continue to look for ways to refine that and minimize the potential impact to customers.
The other thing I'd share is that -- and Steve Powell is playing a leading role in this, we're making sure we're sharing our learnings with the rest of the industry because this is -- it's no longer a California problem it's not no longer a western issue. It's a national level issue. And so we're proud that through EEI, which is I'm sharing EEI, through June of this year, but Steve is co-chairing a CEO taskforce at EEI, that's helping to share best practices across the industry as well as have a discussion on whether other states or the federal level we could find a way to have liability protections like the things that we were able to achieve in California through AB 1054. So we take leaderships here seriously, it's not just about protecting our customers, but making sure that we're sharing that with the rest of the industry.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. That kind of hits my second question, but maybe just to continue with that. On the national level, do you see movement in D.C.? And could we actually get policymakers moving in that direction to develop something that comprehensive but nationwide approach here? Just wondering given how divisive politics are today if you think that could actually be a motion at some point?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes. So through EEI, we're really engaged on that, a number of Capital Hill visits. Look, you're right, it's kind of hard to get a national budget past these days, right? So it is a challenging environment in capital hill. On the other hand, this is not a single state issue anymore. It's multiple states, they're red, blue and everything in between, alright? And so I think there's increasing recognition that there is a challenge here that needs a national solution still framing that up. And -- but I will point to the fact that there's examples for other risks across the economy where there is a national level solution. Think about managing nuclear operating risk and the Price-Anderson Act, as an example. Steve, I know you've been engaged in a number of these capital Hill discussions as well. Anything you'd add?
Steven Powell:
I'd just say right now, we've been really focused on education about how the risk is evolving and the mitigations that the industry is taking to manage the physical risk itself. In terms of the financial risk, I think there's -- I know that different states are approaching it in different ways. We'll look for ways that you can combine what's being done at the state level with potentially complementary efforts at the federal level. Some of the things that I know there's interesting on the Hill is in things like being able to remove timber. And there's lots of tactical things around permitting and allowing utilities to effectively do streamline the process to get their work done in high-fire areas. In terms of more of the financial solution, again, I think that's there's a lot of work to be done even just to shape what the ask is and it will take some time, but it's most likely to be some combination of state solutions with potential at the federal level.
Jeremy Tonet:
And just a quick point of clarification, if I could, with regards to the deadline for the plaintiff extensions there. I think it might have said in the coming months [indiscernible], is there any specific date in time that we should be looking for there?
Maria Rigatti:
Right now, the deadlines are all over the next couple of months, but we'll keep you posted.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Ryan Levine with Citi.
Ryan Levine:
Maybe interested in terms of the cost structure, it looks like your O&M numbers ticked up year-over-year in your footnotes points inspection and maintenance costs being higher this quarter. Is there anything to read into that? Or any color you could share around what's driving some of the escalation on your costs?
Maria Rigatti:
Yes. So a lot of that sometimes has to do with exactly when in each quarter, you're booking the cost. So some of it is just timing differences year-over-year. That can be driven by weather in years where there is worse weather than not, you're going to do less work and then in another year, you can do more work. So I think our cost structure is not changing per se. In fact, our focus is on how to actually streamline all of those processes and reduce the cost over time. So nothing to read in to that.
Ryan Levine:
And then in terms of wildfire mitigation plans more broadly to the extent that this becomes the more national initiative for utilities around the country? Are there opportunities to streamline maybe the cost of implementation or any iterations that you can anticipate as it becomes more of a nationwide phenomenon?
Pedro Pizarro:
So maybe a couple of angles on that. One is, and I think you heard us say this earlier, Ryan, our team continues to look constantly for how do we refine, improve, how do we use new technologies, et cetera. So maybe part of your question comes from a place of -- I'll make it up a little bit and you tell me if this is the kind of thing you're thinking about. To the extent that you have technologies that end up being deployed on a more mass scale across multiple states, I think in theory, conceptually, got my lead to maybe some streamlining of those costs. If you have greater adoption, you're driving greater scale. But I think from an SCE perspective, the team there is very focused on constantly turning the crank, refining our view of the risk, refining the view of the models, underlying description of that risk and then prioritizing and reprioritizing the capital and O&M commitments that we make towards further reducing that risk.
Steve, anything else?
Steven Powell:
Yes, Ryan. And maybe as I think about the experience we've been through and the focus we have on both balancing affordability as we make sure we're mitigating the wildfire risk, it starts for any utility going down the path of making the right decisions around the risk mitigations you deploy. So for example, for us, on our grid hardening side, covered conductor is a very cost-effective way for us to address the risk that we face. It may look different for different utilities. As you get into things like inspection, to the things we've done around combining our aerial and our ground inspection, so we're having to go out fewer times to do the inspections.
The tools we use to do that are ones that certainly, if they're able to help us bring the cost down as more and more people are developing those, those may improve, and we may have more opportunities. There's areas as you begin to go broader around, for example, veg management and how you do those inspections. So the detection, whether it's using LiDAR or satellite, with the whole industry focused on those, those will advance faster and allow us to lower the cost. So we will definitely learn from others and now learn from us as we try to deploy the most effective wildfire mitigation, but bring the cost of all of them down.
Pedro Pizarro:
Maybe, Steve, one final thought I would add is it's not just about what we and the industry are doing along with technology partners, but it's also about the government's role in this. And we -- you might know I co-chaired the electricity subsector recording and Council, which is the CEO-led group that really the partnership between the industry and the federal government on matters of physical and cyber security and resiliency. And so DOE is our sponsoring agency for our sector, and they've been a really good partner in engaging around how do we think about technologies, how do we get access to federal resources.
A lot of work to be done in areas like vegetation where there's more work and more progress to be made in working with we say, the forest service or the Bureau of land management, but particularly DOE has been a great partner in looking at how we bring these sort of benefits and scale to all states that need it. And so we'll continue that partnership and it makes everybody safer.
Operator:
That was our last question. I'll now turn the call back to Mr. Sam Ramraj.
Sam Ramraj:
Thank you for joining us. This concludes the conference call. Have a good rest of the day. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good afternoon. And welcome to the Edison International Fourth Quarter 2023 Financial Teleconference. My name is Sheila, and I will be your operator today. [Operator Instructions] Today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Sam Ramraj, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Ramraj, you may begin your conference.
Sam Ramraj:
Thank you, Sheila and welcome everyone. Our speakers today are President and Chief Executive officer, Pedro Pizarro; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Maria Rigatti. Also on the call are other members of the management team. Materials supporting today's call are available at www.edisoninvestor.com. These include Form 10-K, prepared remarks from Pedro and Maria, and the teleconference presentation. Tomorrow we will distribute our regular business update presentation. During this call, we will make forward-looking statements about the outlook for Edison International and its subsidiaries. Actual results could differ materially from current expectations. Important factors that could cause different results are set forth in our SEC filings. Please read these carefully. The presentation includes certain outlook assumptions, as well as reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure. During the question-and-answer session, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. I will now turn the call over to Pedro.
Pedro Pizarro:
Well, thank you, Sam. And good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining us. I am pleased to report that Edison International’s core EPS for 2023 was $4.76, which was above the midpoint of our guidance range despite the pending CEMA decision shifting into 2024. This strong performance demonstrates our ability to manage the business and extends our track record of meeting annual EPS guidance over the last two decades, as shown on page 3. Today, we are introducing 2024 EPS guidance of $4.75 to $5.05. This range incorporates a planned investment in O&M for reliability-focused activities and redeploys savings from prior years into operational excellence initiatives. This spending will benefit customers and therefore shareholders in the long run. I also reaffirm the strong confidence we have in our long-term EPS growth targets of 5 to 7% for 2021 through 2025, and 2025 through 2028. Maria will discuss our financial performance and outlook later on the call. Page 4 shows our accomplishments in 2023. First, we once again delivered on our annual EPS guidance. Second, SCE exceeded its wildfire mitigation plan target to install 1, 100 circuit miles of covered conductor, bringing the total to more than 5, 580 in just five years. We are proud of this progress, which, combined with enhanced vegetation management, asset inspections, and other programs, has significantly reduced the need for public safety power shutoffs. Incorporating this progress into the independent wildfire risk model managed by Moody’s RMS, you can see on page 5 that SCE has achieved 85% to 88% risk reduction as compared to pre-2018 levels. Third, SCE filed its cost recovery application for the TKM events, requesting $2.4 billion. SCE provided a compelling case that it prudently designed, managed, and operated its equipment, and that the associated costs were reasonably incurred. Lastly, we raised our annual dividend by 5.8%, reflecting the board and management’s continued confidence and commitment to delivering on our EPS growth targets. Our dividend yield is in excess of 4% and remains a key component of our total return proposition. This marked the 20th consecutive annual increase in Edison International’s dividend. Page 6 provides an update on the 2017 and 2018 wildfire resolution and our approach for 2024. I would like to emphasize three takeaways. First, SCE continues to make solid progress and overall claims are settling in line with expectations. SCE revised the best estimate of total losses upward by $65 million, with the majority of this based on a single settlement. The deadline in the Woolsey settlement protocol to provide complete claims packages was yesterday and SCE is now evaluating the responses. Second, the utility targets resolving more than 90% of Woolsey claims and filing the cost recovery application in Q3. Third, CPUC President Reynolds issued the scoping memo earlier this month for the TKM proceeding, which largely adopts SCE’s framing of the issues. We are encouraged by this ruling because the issues will be handled in a single phase, allowing for a final decision as soon as Q1, 2025. Also, the schedule provides an opportunity for parties to submit a settlement agreement. I would like to remind you that our financial assumptions for 2025 and beyond do not factor in the cost recovery applications, which would represent substantial value for the company and SCE’s customers. Page 7 summarizes the key management focus areas for 2024. On the wildfire mitigation front, SCE plans to install an additional 1, 050 miles of covered conductor in 2024, after which this program will start to ramp down. By the end of next year, SCE will be approaching a significant milestone, 90% hardening of its total distribution lines in its high fire risk area. You can see this depicted on page 8. Also, SCE will continue its GRC advocacy for funding critical investments that will enable efficient electrification and the state’s clean energy transition. I want to emphasize that distribution grid investment accounts for more than 85% of SCE’s capital plan, and these investments are crucial for ensuring reliability, resiliency, and readiness. The CPUC has consistently approved this type of spending in previous GRCs, reinforcing our confidence in SCE’s request. As for the legal and financial categories, I just discussed our legal approach, including filing the Woolsey application in the third quarter, and Maria will discuss our financial targets shortly. We at Edison are equally focused on the long term. As we have highlighted in several industry-leading white papers, the grid will be a key enabler for realizing California’s pathway to net zero. To get there, it will be critical to rapidly expand the high-voltage transmission system and localized distribution networks that serve customers. This aligns well with the underlying drivers of our investment outlook. As more and more vehicles and buildings are electrified, the electricity demand will increase by 80% over the next 20 years, which will benefit customer affordability through a 40% decrease in their total energy costs across electricity, gasoline, and natural gas. After years of flat demand, SCE is projecting an uptick in electricity usage of about 2% annually over the coming years. To accelerate the development of new markets over time, SCE has developed innovative proposals, including its nation-leading suite of transportation electrification programs. Recently, although the CPUC denied SCE’s building electrification application due to their near-term affordability pressures, it acknowledged SCE’s leadership in proposing programs to accelerate much-needed building decarbonization. The utility will continue to evaluate the results of other building electrification pilots it has in progress and look for different ways to support the state in advancing its clean energy priorities. Another area where we continue to innovate is building our digital and AI capabilities to drive greater efficiency. We are investing in technologies to improve our data analytics skills to enhance decision-making and strengthen operational excellence. For example, we are using generative AI to improve inspections, customer experience, and grid planning. Today, our team is also using AI for research, workflow automations, and code development. In SCE’s customer service operations, AI is enabling call center agents to retrieve information faster, performing speech and sentiment analytics, and supporting billing operations. We will continue this proactive approach to capture value using new technology. To conclude, our operational agenda is driven by safety first, reliability, affordability, and resiliency in our overall utility operations, including SCE’s wildfire mitigation and industry leading covered conductor program. Our financial agenda is very clear, deliver on our 2024 EPS guidance and achieve our EPS target for 2025. Our team and I are very committed to executing strongly and we will continue to share our progress with you. And with that let me turn it over to you Maria for her financial report.
Maria Rigatti:
Thanks Pedro and good afternoon, everyone. In my comments today, I will discuss fourth quarter and full year 2023 results, SCE’s CapEx and rate base opportunities, and 2024 EPS guidance. I want to reaffirm our unwavering confidence in achieving our long-term EPS growth target of 5% to 7% from 2021 to 2025. I’ll elaborate on the factors underpinning this confidence shortly. Let me begin with fourth quarter results. EIX reported core EPS of $1.28. As you can see from the year-over-year quarterly variance analysis shown on page 9, core earnings grew by $0.13 primarily due to higher GRC revenue and lower O&M, partially offset by an increase in interest expense. The parent company also had a gain on preferred stock repurchases. For the full year, EIX’s core EPS of $4.76 was above the midpoint of our guidance range. For context, you’ll recall that we identified two specific items in this guidance, the pending CEMA decision and the tender offer for EIX’s preferred stock. The CEMA decision shifted into 2024 and the gain on the preferred stock repurchase was $0.04. I’m also pleased to inform you that our operational excellence initiatives are off to a solid start, and we are seeing this translate into higher operating efficiency throughout the business. This was reflected in better-than-expected SCE operational variances. Summing up our 2023 performance, the key takeaway is that we continued to manage the variability in the business and yet again deliver core EPS above the midpoint. Page 10 shows the components of our performance versus guidance. Turning to SCE’s capital and rate base forecasts shown on pages 11 and 12, I want to emphasize two messages. First, SCE has a robust and high-quality capital investment plan for 2023 through 2028. The utility plans to invest $38 billion to $43 billion, the majority of which is in the distribution grid. This spending covers several critical areas, including infrastructure replacement, wildfire mitigation, load growth, new service connections, and inspections and maintenance. This type of spending has been approved in prior GRCs, so we view these as high quality and lower-risk. Moreover, they directly support California’s leading role in transitioning to a carbon-free economy. Second, these forecasts do not incorporate substantial additional long-term CapEx opportunities in several areas. The utility will file standalone applications with the CPUC for the NextGen ERP and AMI 2.0 programs once they have been fully developed. On the FERC side, SCE is the incumbent transmission owner for 17 projects approved in CAISO’s transmission plan, which we expect will result in more than $2 billion of investment. Turning to 2024 EPS guidance, the range of $4.75 to $5.05 and modeling considerations are outlined on page 13. As you can see, rate base earnings growth is strong, though our EPS guidance implies modest growth for the year. There are three primary reasons for this. First, interest expense on wildfire settlement-related debt grows by about $0.16 , driven by refinancing $2.1 billion of maturities and issuing additional debt to fund the balance of the claims resolutions. I want to be very clear that the utility expects to seek full CPUC cost recovery of all eligible claims payments, including financing costs. Second, SCE Operational Variance is $0.15 to $0.34 lower year-over-year. As we’ve noted, this captures SCE’s variations from authorized levels, including such items as AFUDC, O&M, depreciation, financing, and true-ups from regulatory approvals. Pedro talked earlier about the planned increase in O&M as SCE spends on targeted reliability-focused activities and redeploys savings into operational excellence initiatives. This accounts for $0.15 to $0.20 of the total year-over-year change. The utility continues to spend in its operations, including Distribution, Customer Service, and IT, to support reliability and benefit customers in the long run. Third, Parent & Other costs are higher, primarily due to the absence of the gain on last year’s preferred stock repurchase, and also having a full year of interest on the junior subordinated notes issued in excess of the amounts needed to fund the repurchase. Turning to page 14, I want to emphasize the strong underlying business growth that is being masked by the growing interest expense on wildfire claims debt. As you see on the chart, we are on track to achieve 5% to 7% core EPS growth for 2021 through 2025. This is despite the burden of about $325 million of pretax interest, or $0.61 per share, which reduces our core EPS growth by 250 basis points over this period. On the other hand, this illustrates the substantial potential value from successful resolution of the cost recovery proceedings. I would now like to address the big increase in 2025 core EPS and share some insight into what makes us confident in delivering on our commitment. To do this, we are going beyond our typical one-year forward guidance and providing a bridge between the midpoints of 2024 and 2025 core EPS guidance, which is on page 15. The biggest contributor to earnings growth comes from an increase in rate base earnings. You will recall that for the last several years we’ve been projecting rate base to increase by 11% to 14% in 2025. This step-up has two components. The first relates to the 2025 GRC which in total drives $0.63 of the change. The drivers for this increase are 2025 CapEx and rate base true-ups, including differences in the timing and mix of capital deployed over the prior rate case cycle. The second component relates to non-GRC applications to recover past wildfire mitigation and other spending, as well as FERC-jurisdictional investment. This represents the remaining $0.15. A significant portion of this relates to covered conductor installation and other mitigation spending above what was authorized in SCE’s 2021 GRC. Outside the rate base EPS, I want to underscore that operational variances are not a key driver, and its contribution is in line with historical levels. Further, we see wildfire interest expense moderating as the claims settlement process should be substantially complete and SCE has only $300 million of wildfire debt maturing in 2025. Let me summarize by saying that our confidence is underpinned by these growth drivers, further bolstered by the fact that headwinds in 2024 are expected to moderate going into 2025. Turn to page 16. Following an active year of capital market execution in 2023, our planned 2024 financing activities are minimal. In December, EIX pre-funded $75 million of the $100 million annual equity need with our junior subordinated notes offering. The remainder will be addressed through internal programs by the end of Q1. As for the rest of the parent’s funding needs, we expect to issue $500 million of debt to refinance a maturity. Turning to page 17, we are also reiterating our core EPS growth target of 5% to 7% for 2025 through 2028, which only requires $100 million of equity per year. On the right side of the page, we’ve now laid out the consolidated sources and uses for this period. Let me conclude by saying our confidence in meeting our 2024 and 2025 EPS targets remains strong. Additionally, there are also potential value creation opportunities that are not factored into our guidance metrics or the company’s equity value. These are cost recovery for the 2017 and 2018 events, successfully executing our operational excellence program, the cornerstone for SCE’s cost leadership and lowest system average rate among major IOUs in California, and Incremental CPUC and FERC growth investment opportunities. We look forward to executing on our plans and sharing progress on the next quarterly earnings call. That concludes my remarks and I’ll pass it back over to Sam.
Sam Ramraj:
Sheila, please open the call for questions. As a reminder, we request you to limit yourself to one question and one follow up so everyone in line have the opportunity to ask questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.
Shar Pourreza:
Can you hear me now? Sorry about those little technical issues. Pedro, just wanted to start off on the components of the ‘24 drivers, in particular maybe that $0.15 to $0.20 cents of O&M reinvestment. When you reference redeploying the savings in the future, would that be one for one with the $0.15 to $0.20? And I guess what timeframe would that impact?
Pedro Pizarro:
So I think I'll start, Maria. I can continue here. But we're focusing on what we are investing in ‘24 and we see that being an investment in systems, processes, or continued work and operational excellence that we think will accrue benefits for customers over the long haul. So it's really all about making sure that we are thinking long term and doing good things for the business. This is not like one big bang. It's multiple opportunities. So I think we've discussed with investors in the past consistent with our operational excellence work.
Maria Rigatti:
Yes, Shar, I think Pedro captured a lot of it in that response. I'd also focus on the fact that the spending that we're doing, the reinvestment that we're doing, we talk a lot about affordability, but we also talk a lot about reliability for our customers. So you're seeing us put the money to work in reliability efforts, so grid remediation, generation, as well as the operational excellence initiatives that will provide value over a long-term period. So I think it's those things that we're really focused on in 2024. And you'll continue to see us make those investments as we move forward.
Shar Pourreza:
Got it. Okay, great. And then just appreciate you calling out the wildfire debt drag that is impacting results, the $0.61 of drag. I guess how do you plan to update your assumptions on that portion going forward, especially as we're now well in progress with the TKM recovery. Thanks.
Maria Rigatti:
Sure. So as you know, we are not assuming any recovery in our long-term EPS forecast. We have submitted a very compelling case, and you know we're making progress and have the scoping memo now, but we haven't incorporated anything there in terms of the benefit. We have provided interest rate assumptions. We don't really have -- we have some refinancings in ‘24. As I mentioned earlier, we only have $300 million of refinancings coming due in 2025, but the interest rate forecast that we have today embedded there is pretty consistent with what we're seeing. So as we continue down that path, we'll just be providing sort of quarterly updates on the activity around the cost recovery application.
Operator:
Next, we'll hear from Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research.
Steve Fleishman:
Hi. Good afternoon. Hi there. Hi, Pedro. So the -- just wanted to -- you talked in the past about the kind of higher cost of capital would be, why that would be offset with likely reinvesting the business and the likes. So just as we look at the guidance for ‘24, and I guess ‘25, could you just kind of go back to that prior comment and have a think of it from that standpoint?
Maria Rigatti:
Sure, Steve. It's Maria. So what we've talked about in the past around the cost of capital mechanism and the trigger is that obviously that's your, might interest rates and the interest rate environment that we're in. And as we look forward, we do view that cost of capital mechanism and the trigger as being a hedge against interest rate changes on the expense side of the equation, if you will, but also an opportunity to reinvest in the business, again, looking at that longer term affordability. So as you think about changes year-over-year, you can see, as we already talked about in 2024, you can see that we're taking dollars and we're reinvesting them in the business. As you look forward you can see that we are taking dollars and we are reinvesting them in business. As you look forward to 2025, I think there's a really interesting chart and I want to highlight it. As you look forward to 2025, we have updated the rate-based earnings in 2025. Makes sense. The cost of capital mechanism is triggered. We've updated our tariff sheets. Our next rate change will be implementing the new cost of capital. So it makes sense to update rate-based earnings. And then we've gone through the rest of the buckets in 2025 and also updated them first to reflect the changes in interest rates, the hedge aspect of the cost of capital mechanism. So you see that our cost excluded from authorized has been updated. That's largely wildfire debt interest expense. We've also taken a look at all of the other buckets, the operational variances, et cetera. But when you look at what's happening between 2024 and 2025, the increase in earnings is driven by rate-based growth. SCE operational variances in line with historical levels, not a significant driver. EIX parents and other, not a significant driver of year-over-year growth into 2025. And frankly, now by 2025, the wildfire debt will have also stabilized, not a significant driver. So that's how I think about the cost of capital mechanism and then how it rolls through all of the different components.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. Thank you. Just one follow-up. You mentioned the FERC transmission projects that are not in your plan. Kind of when would we have a sense of whether you're likely to get those and would they kind of become part of your plan?
Maria Rigatti:
Sure. So we are the incumbent transmission owner for 17 of the projects that CAISO has included in their plan. That's $2 billion plus. That is largely post-2028. So as we continue to refine the cost estimates, because although we are the incumbent transmission owner, we are doing the engineering work currently, as we continue to update that and get a firmer view of the specific cost, we will roll that out but again but again, a lot of the spending is post-2028. In terms of the competitive bids that were out for bid or the competitive projects that were out for bid last year, we did bid on two projects and should know sometime in the spring whether or not we've been selected.
Pedro Pizarro:
And, Steve, I think a reminder beyond those projects that have been identified by ISO, to go back to our countdown to 2045 white paper from last year as we looked across all of California, we see this continued need to invest in the grid over the long term through 2045 with the pace of transmission of issues needing to be 4x statewide what it's been historically and the pace of distribution of issues needing to be 10x what it's been historically. So we see a lot of work for the utility in the two decades ahead. Great.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Nick Campanella with Barclays.
Nick Campanella:
Hey, thanks a lot for taking the questions and all the updates today. Hey, good afternoon. Especially the EPS bridge, I just had a question on that. Just the $0.30 of true-up in the ‘25 EPS bridge, is that just very unique to ‘25, or does any of that kind of continue through ‘26? Because I just notice a lot of programs and true-ups outside of traditional GRC. Thanks.
Maria Rigatti:
Yes, great, Nick. So you're talking about the rate-based true-up that we show on that bridge in the deck, right? And so when you think about that, there are different components to rate-based. As I said earlier, rate-based is the driver for earnings growth between 2024 and 2025. Two buckets around rate-based growth. One is related to the 2025 GRC and the other is related to non-GRC applications, if you will. I'll break down the GRC, the 2025 GRC related item, a little bit more. Some of that is just 2025 CapEx. We spend it, it goes into rate-based. The prior spending and the true-ups really reflect, as an example, over the course of a rate case cycle, the actual mix of capital that we've deployed or assets that we've deployed is a little different than what's unauthorized. So we have true-ups around that prior period spending. We also have some non -CapEx related items that get trued up in a rate case or get, as they say, litigated in a rate case. Those could be things like taxes or the amount in which customer deposits are treated. So there's a number of things in there. Those are not atypical for a rate case proceeding. The second piece, the non-GRC piece of it, the applications there, those also relate to prior period spend, but those are things that we're going to seek recovery for outside of the general rate case. And we should be filing something relatively soon, in fact, particularly around the items that relate to prior period covered conductor spend. So that's the flavor of the rate base. I think it's really important to note also that, so it's rate-based growth, it's rate-based earnings, but it covers actually a pretty diverse bucket of different elements, and so we think that that diversity also helps strengthen the move from ‘24 to ‘25.
Nick Campanella:
Okay, I appreciate the color, that's helpful. And then I guess just a little bit of a follow-up on Steve's question, just thinking through as you wrap in some of these upside factors to the plan, just what's the type of balance sheet capacity that you have to do that and to stay in higher CapEx, and how do we think about incremental equity funding, if at all?
Maria Rigatti:
Sure, so we did include a source and uses this time for the ‘25 to ‘28 period. We have a very strong commitment to our balance sheet, and I think you've seen us demonstrate that commitment with the financing decisions we made in the past, but also the balance sheet has been strengthened by all of the wildfire mitigation that we've deployed. It's really made a difference, I think. As we move forward in time and we add capital to the capital plan, SCE will of course fund it for their authorized capital structure, and we're in the 15% to 17% FFO to debt range. So the EIX component of the financing plan, we'll just have to see where we are in that 15% to 17% FFO to debt range, and we'll make our decision based on our metrics.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Anthony Crowdell with Mizuho.
Anthony Crowdell:
Hey, good afternoon. I think I just have to be one quick follow-up. I want to connect slide 14 and slide 6. When I look at slide 14, it looks like interest expense increase, and I believe that just as you're funding more of the liabilities. There's the, I guess, stability in the interest expense as you show, $0.61 in ‘24, $0.61 in ‘25. Is that stability in the interest expense more related to hedges or is it related to on slide 6 that the claims are coming in slower and it's requiring less funding?
Maria Rigatti:
So it's probably not either exactly, Anthony. Basically,
Anthony Crowdell:
I hope it too, sorry.
Maria Rigatti:
It's a third choice. We have some maturities that are coming up in 2024. So that's built into the ‘24 number. Obviously also built into the ‘25 number. Also as we continue to settle claims, the way we've modeled this is that we will be substantially complete with that by the end of 2024. And so you're really not seeing big increases in the debt. There is a maturity that will have to be refinanced in 2025, but it's only $300 million. So those are the drivers for why the number stays pretty constant and we would expect that as we get closer and closer to the end.
Anthony Crowdell:
And then just last follow-up on the claims. I believe in your prepared remarks you stated that the increase of $65 million, and I apologize if I heard this incorrectly, was related to one claim. Could you give additional color on that if that was the correct way, I heard that?
Pedro Pizarro:
What I said was that the majority of it was from one claim, Anthony. And what we're seeing is that as we went to that, it was one claim and then I think just a small number of other claims made up the balance of that. We're seeing that our research modeling continues to be robust, but we had a couple unique outliers that required an adjustment this time.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Michael Lonegan with Evercore ISI.
Michael Lonegan:
Hi. Thanks for taking my question. I'm planning to ask that to related to the tower attachments. Just wondering what your expectation is on when a scoping memo will be issued, and if you could comment on the level of interest you're seeing from potential buyers, and do you still expect to receive proceeds in ‘24 and into ‘25.
Maria Rigatti:
Great, Michael. Thanks. So we are waiting for the scoping memo. We've gone through various aspects of the proceeding thus far. We know where interveners have focused their questions. To some extent, they focus a little bit on safety, but I think that we've easily addressed that there's no change in the, from the safety posture due to this transaction. They've also taken a look at the sharing mechanism that's been proposed. Obviously, we embedded a sharing mechanism with customers that's already part and parcel of our tower structure around these types of assets, but they did raise some questions around that. So, like you were waiting for the scoping memo, we're hopeful that it'll come out relatively soon, but that is the next step in the process. As you recall, the request that we made was to treat this sale in a particular manner that would not require a very large application to follow along to the first one. That will be decided as we go through and we could see things go quickly and do something this year, but certainly could go into 2025 in terms of a sale. We won't really start marketing until we actually know what the regulatory schedule will be because we think that's more productive from a transaction perspective.
Michael Lonegan:
Great, thank you. And then secondly from me, just a general question. You've highlighted that by the end of 2025, you expect 90% of your distribution lines that are located in high-fire risk areas to be hardened and have said that wildfire mitigation spend is stabilizing. My question is, I would think, presumably there are areas that are not currently categorized as high-risk that could potentially become high-risk over the long term. Things seem to be evolving pretty quickly. I was just wondering, have you done analysis or do you have plans to do proactive work on areas that could emerge as high-risk in the event that they develop that way faster than expected?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes, I'll give you a couple of reactions to that. That's a good question, Michael. Clearly, we continue to monitor how the landscape is changing. We do that in partnership with fire agencies, with OEIS, so to the extent that additional areas are designated HFRA, high fire risk areas, in the future, then we would make sure that we're using the same standards that we use for high-fire risk areas today. We do expect that as climate change continues to drive more extreme weather, if you go back to our adapting for tomorrow white paper, by 2050 we see something like a 20% increase in wildfire risk statewide. But that said, this is where we're relying on the hardening, and so certainly if we see more areas coming to that high-risk fold, then we will apply the same sort of methodology to them. The other thing I'd say is that as we progress in our normal investment, we've had this big push to do the rapid hardening in HFRA, but we've also upgraded our standards for just generic replacements. And so we'll also see hardening take place more organically as we continue our bread and butter infrastructure replacement throughout the system.
Operator:
Next, we will hear from Ryan Levine with Citi.
Ryan Levine:
Hi, everybody. I'm hoping to ask on AI, you highlighted it in your prepared remarks. How material do you see the cost cutting opportunity to be for Edison and then more broadly, given some of your role in EDI, do you see a lot of shared information to address that commercial opportunity for the industry.
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes, and I'd say I'm getting perspectives of that on that not only for my EDI colleagues, but as I engage with CEOs across the economy, right? The Business Roundtable, Business Council. It is a big topic for everybody, a big focus area. I think this is a long-term opportunity, Ryan, and we're really excited about it. I feel proud that Edison, I think it's one of the early movers, certainly in our sector. And so the kinds of examples you heard me describe where we had some pilots, we've moved from pilots to actually implementing permanent additions to things like what I mentioned in the Customer Call Center support. It's a real long-term efficiency opportunity, but we're still very early days, right? And so handicapping, I know it's going to be significant. How quickly can they really get deployed? How quickly does the technology mature? Pitting that in against more specific cost estimates. I think this is something we will continue to see in probably at least a next two or three rate cases over time at SCE. So there's going to be a curve to that. And we're moving quickly with the pieces we're working on right now. We're seeing impact from them, but it will take a while for that to mature into long-term savings where we can say, here's X cents in EPS that's coming from that, or here's the millions of dollars that we're able to save customers in a future rate case.
Ryan Levine:
Great. I'm going to ask one follow-up on the transmission opportunity. Is there any disclosure you're able to share around right aways or resources that you have to make an argument for winning the two outstanding bids that you highlighted?
Maria Rigatti:
Ryan, I'm just going to say that the CAISO has all of our information, and we'll let them go through it before we make a lot of detailed statements about our bid.
Pedro Pizarro:
es. Sorry, we can’t go into more detail right now.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Angie Storozynski with Seaport.
Angie Storozynski:
Thank you. Hi. How are you? Okay. So can I just ask about what happened with the benefit from the cost of capital? Because I understand that there is reinvestment happening in ‘24. I get that. But why doesn't it reappear then in ‘25? I mean, again, it should be just a one-time offset now. I mean, again, I mean, is it somehow the GRC truing up the cost here? Again, why am I not seeing the benefit in ‘25?
Maria Rigatti:
Sure. So we did provide sort of a bridge between 2024 midpoint to 2025 midpoint. And I think the way that we've discussed the cost of capital mechanism before is that it is, it triggered because of the interest rate environment. And so we view it as, in part, a hedge against interest rate movement. We also view it as an opportunity to make investments. And those investments could be purely around creating longer-term affordability, which then provides more opportunity to invest in rate-based, but also around reliability, which we know is a top focus for our customers as well as for our regulator. If you think about what we've updated for 2025, we took the rate-based update that's associated with the cost of capital mechanism. We also took a look at where interest rates had moved, which is, again, the hedge, the other part of the cost of capital is on the expense side. And we updated our cost excluded from authorized. Those movements were largely related to wildfire claims debt. That's stabilizing, of course, post-2024, but you can see that we've updated that. We looked at the operational variances again as well, and we've seen that those are pretty much flat year-over-year, a little bit of an increase year-over-year with 2024, so in line with historical levels. Obviously, as Pedro noted, we're working on a lot of different operational excellence efforts. And so we're going to continue to make those investments so that ultimately, we get more of those benefits out on the other side. But those are the ways that we thought about the update to 2025 and really wanted to highlight that if you look at 2024 and then you look at 2025, it's that rate-based growth that is driving earnings. And that is ultimately in the long term, the earnings growth trajectory for the company is always going to be tied to rate-based growth. And so I think that really clarifies sort of the stability and the foundation for our long-term earnings trajectory.
Angie Storozynski:
I understand, but here's my question. So if you recall the previous couple of calls, we've always had this discussion about, is this really incremental to the earnings range for 2025 versus some offsets to that number? And so I'm just wondering if the same is going to be true now with the $0.61 that you guys are showing on slide 14, which is the earnings drag associated with the wild fire claims. So, again, obviously the 10th on the recovery of those costs. But I'm just wondering if $0.61 is really the upside scenario here, or is there something that's going to eat into this potential benefit, assuming that you get recovery of all of the wildfire costs?
Maria Rigatti:
Right. So I think we've been really explicit. I think there's even a chart that shows the progression, even from 2001 to 2025, in terms of what that earnings drag is related to the wildfire debt. Not trying to mask anything at this point. We've laid out the maturity schedule that we have related with wildfire debt. We've incorporated, we basically, as I noted earlier, we've assumed that we will be pretty much done with the wildfire claims payments by the end of this year. And so all of those amounts, plus the refinancings that we'll do this year and next year, are baked into that number. So I don't think that we're talking about anything that is sort of an area where you would see something unexpected happen. We haven't incorporated, we're talking a little bit about offsets and the like. We have not incorporated any benefit from the cost recovery application and recovery of those claims payments. So there is nothing that would eat into that $0.61 in a negative way. Cost recovery obviously creates a benefit because then that interest expense would be offset by authorized revenue. So it actually, I think, in terms of your question, would go the other way.
Angie Storozynski:
Okay. And then separately on the transmission ROE, so I'm just, the assumption about a 10.3 transmission ROE, is there any concern that there's any potential downsides to that ROE just if I'm looking at what happened with PG&E and the ISO ADR, et cetera, how comfortable are you with that level?
Maria Rigatti:
Well, we are comfortable. We have a black box settlement. Our settlement doesn't have references to the CAISO ADR or the like. So that 10.3 is the number that we have. Interveners can ask us at this point to go in and file another rate case or another FERC formula rate case. They haven't done so to this point. Obviously, interest rate -- the interest rate environment is significantly different than the last time that we settled the case. So I guess there's potential risk on both sides, right?
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan.
Jeremy Tonet:
Hi, good afternoon. Hi, just wanted to come back to an earlier point. Apologies if I missed it here, but with regards to the ‘25 bridge and the prior spending true-ups of $0.37, is that a number that recurs going forward or should we expect in ‘26 to that to drop off?
Maria Rigatti:
Oh, I see your question. Sorry, and I probably didn't understand it clearly the first time. No, those are going to be rate-based earnings. So the dollars, the $0.78 is just the increase from rate-based earnings and the next year those things will still be in rate-based. So we'll just be, if you look back at the chart that we have, that shows rate-based year by year, we were bridging from the midpoint, but it's cumulative numbers you go forward. Each year the rate-based will just embed the change that happened in ‘25 and then whatever incremental CapEx we have on top of that in the current year.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it, that's helpful. Thank you for that. And another smaller point, if you will, just turning to slide 26 and looking at the 2025 core earnings per share component ranges and the SCE costs excluded from authorized. It seems like that goes up by a quarter or so versus ‘23. And I was just wondering what would be some of the drivers there? It looks like the industry assumption was unchanged. So just wondering component feeding into that.
Maria Rigatti:
Yes, so that is largely related to Wildfire Claims Set. And as we've been updating the amounts that we have to pay for claims, we need to update that. And there has been volatility as we've gone in and refinanced some of the claims. So it's really the driver in the difference relative to the prior is really about Wildfire Claims Payment-Related Debt. Again, our view, and we talked about this on the last earnings call as well, is that the cost of capital mechanism, which is driven by the interest rate environment, has a corollary on the expense side. And so the CCM is really a hedge against the ongoing interest rate movements.
Jeremy Tonet:
Sorry, just to clarify there, I didn't mean versus ’23, versus the prior ‘25. I think that number changed.
Maria Rigatti:
Right, it did. And it is still really, I understood your question, sorry. It is related to increases in wildfire claims related to that.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Gregg Orrill with UBS.
Gregg Orrill:
Yes, thank you. Hi. Sorry if this is sort of old ground, but with the deadline to file a claim for the Woolsey recovery, how does that impact, if at all, the best estimate of total losses that you have?
Maria Rigatti:
So, Greg, we, as you know, every quarter take a look at all of the information that we have and then tie that back to what we think about our best estimate. The process that you just referred to ended yesterday, the team is in the process now of evaluating all of the responses that have been submitted. And so, over the course of the next quarter, we'll be taking a look at that and we will update folks as we get through that onto the next earnings call.
Operator:
Our next question will come from David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley.
David Arcaro:
Oh, hey there. Thanks so much. Let me see. I want to get your perspective on the building electrification proposal. I guess, how are you positioning that type of an opportunity? Is that something that you could approach in a different way, refile in the future, look for maybe different strategy or funding or affordability considerations just as you look at maybe other strategies for investing in building electrification going forward?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes, thanks, David. That's a great question. And first of all, let me just probably repeat myself a little bit here, but when we think about the building electrification application, I think SCE had done a really nice job of two things. One, identifying a big gap in deployment, and secondly, coming up with a solution that basically had a cost benefit of one, right? So that is actually pretty attractive when you have an emerging technology like heat pumps. And so the second thing that they were developing this application with that cost benefit of one, that would not only send it its own two feet, but it was going to create a demand signal that would be very powerful to then help manufacturers go off in scale and capture those economies of scale that you get as you increase the volumes that you're producing. We saw this phenomenon, right? Collectively in California and more broadly, we saw the phenomenon with solar. And the early RPS targets helped drive down solar manufacturing costs. We'd seen a phenomenon with battery cells, right, which have come down in costs dramatically. I think there were probably 10% of the costs that used to be a decade ago. And that hasn't happened with heat pumps yet, hence the building electrification application. We appreciated that the commission created SCE for creativity, and I agree. But they felt these near-term pressures, affordability and passing the application. They also pointed though to some of the other funding that they thought was available and perhaps didn't think that SCE had factored in sufficiently. I can respectfully disagree with that view. I think SCE had factored that in. And what's ironic about it is that that very same week, actually a few days before the PUC voted out that final decision, the governor unfortunately cut out something like $200 million from his budget proposal for building electrification. And so to me that just shows that here say one of the key gaps as we identified in our Mind the Gap white paper a few years ago, building electrification, if you think about total greenhouse gas emissions in the state, buildings account for about 10% of greenhouse gas emissions, but we saw building electrification being able to make up about a quarter of the gap that we saw in terms of newly carbonization steps needed between we filed that or published our white paper two, three years ago in 2030. So sorry for the long preamble, but it kind of gives you context of how important we think building electrification is. So what do we do now? Well, for us, let me just remind you that that denial of DEA doesn't impact at all the 5% to 7% EPS growth targets we have for ‘25 and for ‘28, that would have been incremental on top of that. And it certainly does not impact the merit of SCE’s ‘25 GRC application because the infrastructure investment that's called for there is absolutely needed regardless of what happened with the, but our team will continue to look at how is the gap shaping up for the state, how is the state doing in terms of meeting its 2030 legislative target of a 40% economy-wide reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 and the levels, how is the state doing in terms of getting to net zero by 2045 and we expect we'll continue to see building electrification being a laggard in terms of the progress in the state so our team is already thinking about are there other opportunities to help the state help itself and whether that's another application like this one, we certainly wouldn't go back out with the same thing at no point to that but we'll continue to think creatively about is it an application standalone, are other funding sources that can be tapped that might be existing today but that maybe haven't been quite fully tapped yet, are there things that SCE can do to utility, are there things that SCE can encourage others to do to help address the gap thinking about the whole space right now and we'll keep you posted. Does that help, David?
David Arcaro:
Yes, that's the helpful perspective, doesn't seem like the opportunity goes away.
Pedro Pizarro:
Well, the need certainly doesn’t go away, today it’s increasing.
David Arcaro:
Right, yes, make sense. No great and then I guess my only other kind of lingering question here maybe I'll have to follow up separately but just on that cost excluded from authorized sorry Marie to go back to this but just are there any other moving pieces in that $0.25 versus the last slide deck. Did the amount of wildfire claim debt go up meaningfully? I would have thought that was not changing too much kind of quarter-to-quarter here and then it looked like the interest rate assumption was flat between the two slides there. So sorry just curious if there's anything else there is missing?
Maria Rigatti:
So if you'll recall that in Q3 we did -- when we did have the more sizable increase in the reserve, we didn't really update every single line item in the 2025 rack-up because we knew that we would be able to manage within the range. So but now that we've got the CCM sort of, as I said, integrated into our tariffs, it'll be implemented in rates, we wanted to go through line by line and provide a fresher update. So that's what's going on.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America.
Julien Smith:
Hey. Good afternoon, team. Thank you very much for the time. Appreciate it. Hey. Thank you. So let me just ask a little bit of a follow-up from Angie here vis-a-vis the cost of capital here. Just when you think about it, maybe in the reverse here, if you will, if there were to be further gyrations on the cost of capital, it sounds like they're puts and takes that you could manage around here to keep numbers intact, right? I get that the full extent upwards wasn't necessarily reflected in the linear fashion in the outlook for a variety of reasons. I just wanted to clarify that piece, and then I got a quick follow-up on the long term here. And I got folded into a lot.
Maria Rigatti:
Okay. So, Julien, I think that actually if you think about what happened in 2023, where we managed the variability that we saw in the business and came out at $4.76, which is above the midpoint of our guidance range, we always have things that we're managing in the business, and we would do that to the extent that we needed to relative to the cost of capital. But I want to just re-emphasize. The cost of capital mechanism triggered because of the interest rate environment we're in. Like, I'll reflect again that the energy division did disposition our advice letter and indicated that the change would be implemented. They went through and responded to all of the intervener commentary around sort of interveners perspectives on why they think it shouldn't be implemented and they did a very thorough job of responding to each point. It does now have to be resolved through the CPUC writ large but none of the facts have changed and we continue to move forward with it and again it's in our tariff sheets and it will be implemented in our next rate change.
Pedro Pizarro:
And I would just use it as an opportunity a little shameless plug but this kind of goes back to page 3 in the deck. We manage the business. We have met or exceeded our guidance for the last two decades and we plan to continue doing that Julien.
Julien Smith:
I hear you on that one. Excellent and well done. Maybe just speaking of guidance and long-term outlooks just real quickly on the EPS profile. So you have this ‘25 to ‘28. We've talked a little bit with Jeremy earlier about the continuity of that $0.37 from ‘25 into ‘26. How do you think about the earnings profile from ‘25 to ’28? That might go back to some of the variances, the cadence, the GRC itself, any comments that you offer?
Maria Rigatti:
Sure. And I think I just want to reiterate that $0.37, it's part of our rate base in each year. So if you do the rate based math, the way you've always done it, you'll capture that true-up and the ongoing impact of that. So I just want to make sure I say that one more time to clarify for folks. In terms of the ongoing through 2028 trajectory, I'm going to take it back again to rate based math. Earnings here are driven by rate based. And we see that growth trajectory all the way through 2028. We've given you the range, we've given you the numbers that relate to the request. We've given you some sensitivities around what the moving pieces are. But fundamentally, the wildfire claims debt expense has stabilized, right, because now we're getting to the tail end of all of that. So that's stabilized. It doesn't create that not in the beginning, but in at the end sort of dynamic we had in 2021 through 2025. And as we've said before, O&M efficiencies are not a driver for ‘25 through ‘28.
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes. And Julien, again, same thing for ‘28 is for ‘25. We've shared with you our target of 5% to 7% growth rate through ‘28. And our growth rate will be someplace in that 5% to 7% range. For ‘25, you're going to see a growth rate for us. It's going to be 5% to 7%. It's not 3%, it's not 4%, it's going to be 5% to 7%. So we're going to meet our guidance and deliver on our expectations for you all.
Operator:
Thank you. I will now turn the call back over to Sam Ramaraj for closing remarks.
Sam Ramraj:
Thanks for joining us. This concludes the conference call. Have a good rest of the day. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good afternoon, and welcome to the Edison International Third Quarter 2023 Financial Teleconference. My name is Sue, and I will be your operator today. [Operator Instructions] Today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Sam Ramraj, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Ramraj, you may begin your conference.
Sam Ramraj:
Thank you, Sue and welcome everyone. Our speakers today are President and Chief Executive officer, Pedro Pizarro; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Maria Rigatti. Also on the call are other members of the management team. Materials supporting today's call are available at www.edisoninvestor.com. These include Form 10-K, prepared remarks from Pedro and Maria, and the teleconference presentation. Tomorrow we will distribute our regular business update presentation. During this call, we will make forward-looking statements about the outlook for Edison International and its subsidiaries. Actual results could differ materially from current expectations. Important factors that could cause different results are set forth in our SEC filings. Please read these carefully. The presentation includes certain outlook assumptions, as well as reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure. During the question-and-answer session, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. I will now turn the call over to Pedro.
Pedro Pizarro:
All right. Thanks, Sam and good afternoon, everybody. Edison International reported core earnings per share of $1.38 for the third quarter and $3.48 for the first nine months of the year. We are pleased with our performance year-to-date and, combined with the outlook for the fourth quarter, we are confident in reaffirming our 2023 core EPS guidance range of $4.55 to $4.85. I would also like to reaffirm our ongoing commitment to delivering 5 to 7% core EPS growth through 2025, which does not factor in several potential upsides. We also reaffirm our EPS growth guidance of 5 to 7% for 2025 through 2028. My comments today cover four key topics
Maria Rigatti :
Thanks, Pedro, and good afternoon, everyone. In my comments today, I will cover third quarter results, discuss our 2023 EPS guidance and provide additional insight into our long-term core EPS growth expectations. Starting with third quarter of 2023, EIX reported core EPS of $1.38. As you can see from the year-over-year quarterly variance analysis shown on Page 5, SCE's third quarter earnings saw a $0.03 decrease. Recall that during this period last year, SCE received a CPUC final decision on its customer service replatform project and recorded a $0.09 true-up. This results in an unfavorable year-over-year comparison for this quarter. I will highlight two additional key variances. SCE's earnings were driven by an increase in revenue due to the GRC escalation mechanism partially offset higher interest expense. At EIX Parent and Other, there was a negative variance of $0.07, primarily due to higher holding company interest expense. Overall, we are pleased with our performance in the first nine months of the year, and combined with our outlook for the fourth quarter, we are confident in reaffirming our full year core EPS guidance of $4.55 to $4.85. I'll cover this in more detail in a few minutes. On Page 6, we've updated the capital forecast to incorporate the GRC Track 4 settlement agreement and assumptions about the timing for certain projects. The key message here is that we continue to see $38 million to $43 billion of capital investment opportunities from 2023 through 2028. Turning to Page 7. Our capital plan supports approximately 6% to 8% rate base growth from 2023 to 2028. Let me emphasize that SCE is an electric-only transmission and distribution focused utility, which benefits from several strong regulatory mechanisms and competitive ROEs. So we see this rate base growth is high quality and lower risk since it is driven by the crucial grid infrastructure needed to facilitate California's leading role in transitioning to a carbon-free economy. As outlined in our Countdown to 2045 analysis, unprecedented grid expansion is needed to keep pace with long-term system-wide resource capacity growth. For a sense of scale, because of the upgrades and additions needed for distribution circuits, substations, transformers and conductors, SCE expects to have a 25% larger distribution system by 2045. This significant expansion in the grid makes us confident in the long-term investment opportunity here in California. Before I discuss our outlook for 2023 and beyond, I'd like to point out two key opportunities we have identified that would have certainty around our future financing needs and financial outlook. First, SCE will be filing an application with the CPUC tomorrow that would allow the utility to monetize its current portfolio of contracts with wireless providers and future contracting opportunities on its transmission infrastructure. The utility currently has more than 850 leases of space on transmission towers and other structures that wireless providers use to attach their equipment. SCE is making this filing prior to the marketing of these assets to shorten the time line leading to final regulatory approval. The contract the utility expects to monetize generate nearly $20 million in annual revenue. This transaction will financially benefit customers. And for shareholders, this is an efficient form of financing that can reduce the need for equity in the future. We will keep you updated as the transaction progresses. Second, EIX recently announced a $750 million tender offer for its outstanding preferred stock. This offer would be funded with debt issuances such as junior subordinated notes or JSNs. By funding the repurchase with JSNs, we will replace the equity content of the preferred stock. Overall, the transaction will simultaneously delever the balance sheet and reduce our interest rate exposure. Let me underscore that this transaction creates near- and long-term financial benefits. In 2023, we would recognize core EPS of about $0.02 for every $100 million of preferred stock tendered. In 2026 and beyond, we will have locked in lower after-tax financing costs compared to the expected reset rates for the preferred stock. These two opportunities build on our track record of successfully identifying ways to manage is even more efficiently executing to create additional value. As shown on Page 8, we are reaffirming our 2023 core EPS guidance range of $4.55 to $4.85. Based on our year-to-date performance and outlook for the rest of the year, we are confident in delivering on this target. Recall that this guidance includes $0.14 related to SCE's 2022 CEMA application. The CPUC recently extended the proceeding statutory deadline April 2024, but there still is a possibility of a final decision by year-end. Together with the tender offer, these two items could put us at the top end of our guidance range. However, if the CEMA final decision occurs in 2024, we will realize those earnings in that year. Page 9 gives you an update on our accomplishments to date in regarding to our 2023 financing plan. The financing transaction so far this year have been in line with our expectations and supported by strong investor response. As I mentioned a moment ago, we've opportunistically added a new component to our plan with the tender offer and look forward to executing another successful transaction. On the regulatory front, I'd like to expand on a couple of Pedro's earlier points. First, to provide some detail on GRC Track 4, the agreement with interveners would authorize 98% of SCE's requested revenue requirements and 99% of its requested rate base. The key takeaway here is that once approved by the CPUC, the agreement will provide clarity on 2024 revenue and translate to $0.12 in incremental rate base EPS over 2023. Consistent with our typical practice, we will provide 2024 earnings guidance on our fourth quarter earnings call. Second, as shown on Page 10, the cost of capital mechanism triggered a 70-basis point ROE increase, resulting in 2024 and 2025 CPUC ROEs of 10.75%. This benefits 2025 EPS by approximately $0.39. The mechanism provides hedge against future increases in interest rates above the levels embedded in our 2025 guidance of $5.50 to $5.90. In terms of operational drivers, we are confident that we will deliver results within the range shown in the modeling considerations. SCE is also evaluating opportunities to reinvest a portion of the $0.39 to accelerate initiatives that would benefit safety, quality and affordability for customers. This investment would enable a utility to capture savings sooner, thereby providing a strong base for long-term customer benefits. I will share more on this front over time. I want to reiterate the high confidence we have in our ability to achieve our 2025 and 2028 EPS growth targets. In addition to our strong rate base growth, we also see upside opportunities. We are looking forward to delivering our targeted EPS growth, which sets the foundation for an attractive total return proposition. That concludes my remarks. And with that, I'll hand it back to Sam.
Sam Ramraj:
Sue, can you please open the call for questions. As a reminder, we request you to limit yourself to one question and one follow up, so everyone in line have the opportunity to ask questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Anthony Crowdell with Mizuho. You may go ahead.
Anthony Crowdell :
Good afternoon, Pedro. Good afternoon, Maria.
Maria Rigatti :
Good afternoon. How are you?
Anthony Crowdell :
Good. Follow up on the last slide, Maria, Slide 10, or Pedro wants to take it, on the cost of capital. Just first, I mean, you gave some insight into the use of proceeds on the reset. Just curious if the Senate Bill 410 plays into where you would deploy the proceeds. And then also if you go through the procedurally, what happens at November 2? And then I have one follow-up.
Maria Rigatti :
Sure. So maybe let's think a little bit about the $0.39 and the ROE shift. And I think about it in two different. And basically, if you think about the cost of capital mechanism, it's really driven by interest rates. And it's a mechanism that has been embedded in the cost of capital proceeding for more than a decade now. And it's part of the reason is part -- and the reason for that is because we have this three-year cost of capital cycle. And when I think about that driver, and I think about the cost of capital mechanism, I have to think about interest rates. And I think about interest rates in two different components. There is the '21 through '25 period and then the '25 to '28 period. And I just want to highlight that the assumption that we've given you around the '21 through '25 period, we've said that we're going to finance SCE finance at a 5.3% interest rate and that EIX will finance at a 6.1% interest rate. And if you look at the plan that we've had for this year and the information that's in the slide, we've actually executed our plan in 2023 right at those levels. In fact, EIX slightly below those levels. Then I look forward to the rest of the period between now and 2025. And basically, I think about the cost of capital mechanism as providing a hedge against future increases in interest rates, as one of those really good regulatory constructs that we have here in California that really protects against the kind of very recent volatility that we've seen in rates. And then if I think about the longer term, if I think about '25 through '28, we've also given you some assumptions around interest rates. We said that SCE was finance at 4.6% and EIX will finance at 5%. When I look at that, I look at our normal process, how do we develop those assumptions. We basically look to that, we look for longer-term fundamental forecast. And yes, those longer-term fundamental forecasts for more recent vintages, they're higher in the front end. But again, that's captured by the hedge that's provided by the cost of capital mechanism. Longer term, the current vintage, prior vintages, they're actually converging. And so we think that we're still in a good place on a longer-term basis. Of course, spreads play a role, too. And since we first gave you our assumptions around interest rates about a year ago, we've actually seen our spreads narrow. Hoping for more of that, but certainly, we've seen some benefit in that direction as well. So that's a component of the CCM and how we think about the use of proceeds. I think the other piece that I referenced is we have a lot of in the operational drivers that we shared with you already. But as we see the CCM trigger, we do want to look at the opportunities that we might have to some of that and accelerate benefits in our operational excellence program. Because you know that we have been working on operational excellence and driving efficiencies for many, many years. And it's not a single year effort, it's a multiyear effort. And so as we see opportunities to deploy more initiatives and do that more quickly, we will definitely take a look at it because it basically provides an even stronger foundation going forward. So I think those are the different components of the CCM and how we're thinking about it.
Anthony Crowdell :
Great. And then post November 2 intervenors file, I guess, tomorrow, and then post November 2, I guess, do we wait for comments on the Energy division or just -- if you just took us through the year-end?
Maria Rigatti :
Sure. So the comments are due tomorrow or the deadline from interveners. Once that deadline is passed, the energy division would still consider whether or not they would just -- the decision or if they would pass it on to the commission. So we will know relatively shortly. Remember, though, that the cost of capital mechanism is very formulaic, is there's not a lot of -- it's only math in terms of how it would get implemented. So I do think that's an important element of the mechanism.
Anthony Crowdell :
Great. And then just lastly, if I went to Slide 3. I appreciate the clarity. Is my understanding correct, if I think about the additional increase, I think, two thirds related to Woolsey? And by February, I think where the deadline is due for claims, again, it may be you may change that 6.4, but by February, we should be -- have much more certainty on the total amount of claims here?
Pedro Pizarro :
That's right, Anthony. Because that gives a deadline there for filing claims, so that provides a certainty around the scope here. So looking forward to reaching at the time line.
Anthony Crowdell :
Great. Thanks for all the clarity.
Pedro Pizarro :
Hey, you bet. Thanks, Anthony.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners. You may go ahead.
Pedro Pizarro :
Hey, Shar.
Shar Pourreza :
Hey, guys. Hey, Pedro. Just on the monetization of the telecom infrastructure leases, $20 million in revenue and obviously potentially coupling that with the wildfire claims recovery. What time frame are you embedding in plan to start seeing EPS and credit metric benefits? And do the increased claims figures present a drag versus some of the benefits from the equity content of the sale?
Maria Rigatti :
Hey, Shar, it's Maria. So I'm going to take that in 2 pieces, so maybe a little bit on our credit metrics. So you know our framework is 15% to 17% FFO to debt. We've laid out our capital plan and our financing plan, including the $100 million or approximately through the DRIP and through the internal programs. And we are comfortable that we can hit our targets for the 15% to 17% FFO to debt. Obviously, with additional amounts related to the increase in the reserve and is a little bit of fluctuation in the metrics, but we are comfortable that we will be able to still meet our objectives when it comes to our credit metrics. That, of course, is related to the recovery -- the cost recovery applications that we filed. So we've already filed the TKM application we will file the Woolsey application. And we provided some metrics in the slides this time around where for every $1 billion of cost recovered, that's about a 40 to 50 basis point improvement in our credit metrics. So it's a very material number. And so we're focused on demonstrating our prudency. We're focused on the long-term customer benefits that having a good decision will create. And we're also focused on the financial benefits and the balance sheet strength that we'll ensue. So I think that, that's all important element. When it comes to the tower attachment sale in terms of sort of timing of what you look at. So we're filing our application tomorrow. The reason we're filing it tomorrow is so that we can get a little bit more clarity on precisely what the regulatory process will be. We think we qualify for a somewhat streamlined regulatory approval process. But in the alternative, we just want to get ahead of the time frame. So we are going to align our marketing schedule with the regulatory approval. So we'd like to have the regulatory approval just before we signed any purchase and sale agreements because that will, of course, reduce uncertainty for everyone. And depending on which path the commission goes down, we would expect potentially middle of next year until sometime into 2025 to see transaction close. So that's the sort of time frame we're looking at for that.
Shar Pourreza :
Got it. And the increasing value of the claims, does that present any challenges to the timing of the claims recoveries with the CPUC?
Maria Rigatti :
No.
Pedro Pizarro :
I'll say no, remember, Shar, that in our TKM filing, the cost recovery application filing, we proposed a procedure for introducing amounts that have been settled after the filing date. And so it's been contemplated. There will be some number of settlements coming in that we'll be doing it beyond the numbers that we had initially filed. So the increase in claims will just fit into that final two procedure that we proposed.
Shar Pourreza :
Okay. Perfect. That was good. And then just lastly, you obviously noted $0.39 of upside from the cost of capital mechanisms and the opportunity to sort of deploy it into customer-focused CapEx. I guess how long would it take you to deploy the incremental CapEx that the $0.39 of earnings would support? And I guess what mechanisms would you utilize to minimize that lag? Thanks, guys.
Maria Rigatti :
Yeah. So we would be looking at a whole range of things in terms of deploying that $0.39 and that could range everywhere from further pushing forward on our initiatives in the field to improve the processes there. And so that would allow us to get capital efficiencies as well as O&M efficiencies. We're going to keep looking at other opportunities in customer service and enhancing or improving the customer experience. We also have things that we want to do with support services and places in finance and regulatory affairs as examples. So we're looking at that. And as I said earlier, for us, operational excellence, cost efficiencies really driving effectiveness in the business. It's not a single year effort, like we are doing this on a multiyear basis. And so we're going to be building on successes that we have next year into 2025. So I think this plan is still developing, but we would expect to see that '25-'26-'27.
Shar Pourreza :
Okay, perfect. Thank you, guys. Appreciate it.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question is from Angie Storozynski with Seaport. You may go ahead.
Pedro Pizarro :
Hi, Angie.
Angie Storozynski :
Hello. Thanks for letting me ask the question. So the first, again, I mean, those wildfire loss increases are very substantial. It just almost feels like it's a moving target, right? We're almost in the ninth inning. And every other quarter, we have these very big increases. It's somewhat surprising, at least from our vantage point to see it this late into the process. And again, I'm clearly hopeful that by February, we will have a full picture, but it just feels like there is more of those increases to come. Would you disagree?
Pedro Pizarro :
So listen, Angie, and you heard it in my comments. We know this is something that our shareholders are certainly taking notice of, and we are too as management and as shareholders. The reality is that every quarter, we test again, we reevaluate. And this quarter, a number of factors change. As I mentioned in my comments, it all adds down or boils down to, we're seeing settlements coming in higher than expected. And so that now becomes the new best estimate. I think you're right. We're certainly looking forward to February and at least knowing what the claims finally are going to be for Woolsey. I do want to caution that that's the deadline for claims filing might still take some time beyond the deadline to get all the details behind specific claims and really big into dose, that is a process, as you've seen over the last several years. So we'll continue to work at it. And our team is very focused on having a fair outcome as we go through all of this litigation, it's going to be fair to people who were impacted by the fires, but it all has to be fair to our customers. And so we want to make sure that we do it as quickly as we can but taking the time needed to have a good thoughtful process and be able to demonstrate the prudency of our actions to the PUC.
Maria Rigatti :
And maybe if I could just offer up one more thing, and I think Pedro kind of touched on in his last comment. It is a process that we have to go through, and we have to do an evaluation. The most important part of this process is getting through it and creating the certainty that comes with completion. Because that's when we will be able to fully -- we have a true-up mechanism in the TKM application. But when we're done with all these processes, we will be able to go and get a final resolution also with the commission. So from our perspective, it's getting through the claims and getting to the claims as quickly as we possibly can because that completion will create the certainty.
Angie Storozynski :
Okay. But in the meantime, the total number of claims -- or financing of claims grows in the cost of capital mechanism doesn't really help me here, right, because those are not currently eligible for recovery. So the rising interest expense on those isn't trued up? Is that --?
Maria Rigatti :
Yeah. So we will -- in our cost recovery application, we are going to file for recovery of the interest expense associated with claims -- financing the claims payments. And the other aspect as well is that we are -- and just to highlight another couple of numbers for you. We are about 85% complete with all of our individual plaintiffs clean to resolutions. So we are moving through the pile, if you will, expeditiously.
Angie Storozynski :
Okay. And then changing topics. So you lowered your rate base projections -- well, '23-'24 or '25. And you're pointing out, obviously, upside to the CapEx on that rate base, mostly beyond '25. So maybe some more details behind that? And then secondly, in your guidance, I've noticed some changes in the components, one of which is the $0.10 increase in the AFUDC the last quarter? And if you could just provide more color.
Maria Rigatti :
Sure. And actually, it turns out that your two questions are very much related. So the capital that you're seeing moving around is particularly in the very near term. It's just a shift in the utility-owned storage project and the timing of those payments. So what you're seeing related to your second question, shifts between rate base earnings and AFUDC on the slide that has modeling consideration. It's really a shift between those two buckets. Utility on storage was in rate base before. Now it's in construction work in progress longer. So you just see the two numbers, if you add them back together, they'll be the same as they were last quarter. So that's one piece of it. The other piece that's going on in our capital program is we have shifted one of the transmission projects that we are still going through the permitting process on but that's just shifted out each year, it shifted out just one year. And so you're seeing a little bit of that impact. But that's why, overall, for the period '23 through '28, the capital program is still the same as it was last quarter.
Angie Storozynski :
Okay. Thank you.
Pedro Pizarro :
Thanks, Angie.
Operator:
The next question is from Gregg Orrill with UBS. You may go ahead.
Pedro Pizarro :
Hey, Gregg.
Gregg Orrill :
Hi. Sorry for a detailed oriented question. Is there a temporary financing for the preferred tender before you get to the potential sub-note financing?
Maria Rigatti :
Gregg, this is Maria. We can address it in different ways. I think in the opening documents, we note how we will finance the tender, and we can do that either by JSN or some other equity content security right after the offering, we could have some sort of bridge using some other securities temporarily. But I think our objective overall is -- and then we've made it clear in the offering documents is that we will replace the equity content of preferred stock.
Gregg Orrill :
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from Ryan Levine with Citi. You may go ahead.
Ryan Levine :
Hi, everybody. Just to clarify one question more for Maria. In terms of clarification of why now for the telecom asset sale? And can you walk through the mechanics of how I think in your remarks, you tested and offsetting to the equity content. How does that work? And given the benefits of customers?
Maria Rigatti :
Sure. So a couple of things. So why now. I think we have been discussions before about are we looking at different things in our portfolio that might -- we might consider selling. And so we have been doing that. And so the why now is that we've completed our analysis and we think that these are attractive assets that folks who are in this business day in and day out will also find attractive. And so that's why -- that's the why now. I think that when you look at the overall portfolio that we have, the other thing that helps to drive this is that these are good assets. Customers do share and the benefit of this, whether we sell them or not, you'll see in our filing tomorrow that round numbers, you can think about this as 15% of the value is for customers and about 85% of the value is for the company or shareholders. By taking this action now, we actually, during a time of affordability concerns and constraints for customers, we'll be able to accelerate those benefits into the near term. So another element of the why now. And I think the comment I just made probably answered the question about what part is for customers and what parts for shareholders. Was there something else in the Ryan?
Ryan Levine :
In terms of the -- I think in your prepared remarks, you suggested kind of offsetting equity, maybe that [indiscernible]?
Maria Rigatti :
Yeah. So when you think about our equity program, you've said that about $100 million a year or so because we're going to be using our internal programs. Obviously, as I mentioned earlier, this depending on the regulatory path if the commission goes down, we could see something middle of '24, maybe into 2025, at which point we can look at the proceeds and determine what that there's an opportunity there to offset some of the equity that we would otherwise issue under our internal program.
Ryan Levine :
Hey, great. Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from Michael Lonegan with Evercore. You may go ahead.
Michael Lonegan :
Hi, thanks for taking my question. So there's been some concerns about electric vehicle demand slowing. We recently saw Panasonic cut its battery production. Obviously, there's a high EV adoption rate in your service territory. You have an investment program that supports the load growth associated with EVs. I was wondering if you could share your thoughts on the risks within your planning period, whether there would be a slowdown or any color you could provide on that.
Pedro Pizarro :
Yeah. I'll start. Steve Powell, you might have some additional thoughts on this too. First, you're right, we've seen, I think, really significant pickup of EVs in our territory and really across California. That's continued through the latest reporting period that I saw. I know I've seen some broader articles in the press, you're probably referring to as well in terms of could there be a slowdown at a national level. There are a number of things that come together here. And I think one of the important elements is the strong support that there is in the IRA, right, for continuing not only the $7,500 tax credit for new electric vehicles, but also the introduction of the $4,000 used electric vehicle tax credit, which is something that, by the way, Edison really helped advance in Washington since it's pattern after something we had here already in California. So look, I think like with any market, you're going to see ups and downs. And you have to guess that things like a higher interest rate environment, making vehicle loans a little more expensive, probably puts a bit of a temporary damper on that. But the long-term trend, I think it's pretty clear here in terms of the value of electric vehicles to consumers and the role that EV deployment will play in reducing greenhouse gases. And certainly our Countdown to 2045 white paper makes clear how valuable that is for GHG reduction. But also just say that when you think a look at the total cost of ownership for electric vehicles today, it's already -- certainly for the lower-cost EV models, the total cost of ownership is lower than it is for similar combustion engine vehicles. You asked also about the impact it could have on our infrastructure buildout and our planning. And I think right now, we're seeing significant growth that's been baked into our rate case. So -- but we can -- we're following the customer on this, Steve, let me turn it over to you and thoughts around impacts on the distribution system or for that growth.
Steven Powell :
Sure. So obviously, we've seen significant growth in EV adoption in California over the last number of years. In 2019, about 6% of new vehicle sales were electric. Right now, we're hitting about 25% of new vehicle sales in the state being electric. And so that's -- we've seen the ramp up and we see that continuing. We've been planning for this for quite some time. So in our distribution, long-term planning forecast, this has been baked into our load forecast, which then feeds our plans around the distribution grid. And that's what informed the plans in our 2025 to 2028 general rate case, where a big portion of our load growth program in there is driven from electrification load growth. And so that's what our teams are focused on. Both not just planning it out, but then starting to build the circuits and the infrastructure to support it. Aside from the light-duty side, we see the growth in our territory from medium- and heavy-duty vehicle charging. Particularly in pockets that range from the transportation segments down by the ports all the way out to the warehouses further inland. And that's where our teams are really looking at different solutions so that we can meet the demands because those demands come in large chunks and they come quickly. So we're looking at everything from how do we accelerate the infrastructure development ahead of that demand to temporary bridge solutions in places like mobile batteries and mobile substations that can help us get through while we have to build out more circuits and substations to enable it. So we're certainly able to meet the growth that we're seeing right now, and we've planned and are planning for the growth that's coming ahead.
Pedro Pizarro :
And I think the last point that Steve made is really critical that innovation in the general rate case to include the request for mobile equipment, to temporary equipment, it's a great step because, particularly when we think about medium and heavy-duty fleet deployment, that's a technical term here, chunkier, right? Then when you're looking at passenger vehicles being spread out over neighborhoods. And so that's where Steve and the team have been working and how to make sure we can meet that load. So Michael, maybe more than you want it, but it's a topic near and dear to us.
Michael Lonegan :
Yeah, yeah. Of course. No, thank you. Thank you very much. I'll see you at ER.
Pedro Pizarro :
Terrific. Next.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley. You may go ahead.
Pedro Pizarro :
Hi, David.
David Arcaro :
Hey, how are you doing? Thanks so much for taking my questions.
Pedro Pizarro :
Sure.
David Arcaro :
I was just curious to get your perspective on PG&E's rate case, they've had just some challenges getting CapEx and rate base approved in its rate case. It's not done yet, but just wondering if there's anything you would take away or read across to your GRC as you go forward. Any changes in your thinking or strategy there? Or any perspectives that might come into play as you go through the process?
Pedro Pizarro :
Yeah. David, thanks for the question. And I give you maybe a quick answer here. I think it starts with acknowledging that each of these rate cases is very situation-specific and company-specific. So I know that our colleagues at PG&E, for example, have had a big emphasis in the rate case on the amount of undergrounding based on their territory and the fact that they have so much more forest land in our high-fire risk areas, as compared to SCE, which has more graft lands and the additions have been in the past more from elements that can be addressed through covered conductor. So you've seen us in the '25 to '28 rate case application, continue completing the build-out of covered conductor with another 1,250 miles per post, complemented by around 600 miles of undergrounding. Very different needs in our territory than MTGE territory. So hard to abstract out strong payrolls from the PG&E case for hours, given that difference. At the same time, there are some elements that are common. And in fact, you saw that Southern California is filed comments in the PG&E rate case. Particularly focused on the topic of the escalation mechanism in there. The fact that the alternative proposed decision relied on essentially a 25% -- provided only 25% of the escalation requested, that -- it's something that we thought needed to be called out as we provided a comment saying that in order to be fully compensatory rates have to include, right, the full allowable costs and escalation is an important part of the cost structure. So that's certainly one that we've watched more closely. And like I said, our team intervened in the rate case because it's a topic that will be of common interest across all utilities. But beyond that, though, we're just watching the case and recognize that there's some significant differences in the situations for the two companies. Maria, anything you want to add?
Maria Rigatti :
Yeah. Just to kind of underscore Pedro's comment about everything is very situation-specific and every rate case is different. Even that last example on the escalator, we actually have a different escalation mechanism. So I think it's -- like as I said, as Pedro said, rather, there's really not a read-through across to the different general rate cases in our view.
David Arcaro :
Got it. Got it. Thanks. I appreciate that perspective. And then I also wanted to -- let's see, check on the CapEx outlook. It was decreased for this year and next year. Was that also related to the store project?
Maria Rigatti :
Yeah. So David, it's entirely -- well, not entirely, but one piece of it is related to particularly '23 and '24. That's related to the schedule around the utility owned stores. So more dollars will be spent in '24 versus '23. And then the other piece that I mentioned earlier was that we have some slightly different schedules around one of our transmission -- larger transmission projects that we're supposed to start in the very near future. It's moved out essentially a year as well. So still all captured within the period through 2028, and we're still at that $38 billion to $43 billion of CapEx.
David Arcaro :
Okay, perfect. Thanks for that. I'll pass it on. Appreciate it.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from Paul Zimbardo with Bank of America. You may go ahead.
Maria Rigatti :
Hey, Paul.
Paul Zimbardo :
Hi, good afternoon, team. The first one, I just wanted to clarify something in the prepared remarks around the Track 4 GRC benefit. You mentioned $0.12 year-over-year into 2024. Is that correct? That's just a component of kind of what you would expect in terms of like the rate as earnings per share growth.
Maria Rigatti :
Yeah, to reflect the rate base math, yeah.
Paul Zimbardo :
Okay. And then the other, just assuming the cost of capital trigger is in force at $0.39, should we think about it as kind of above the earnings growth range to 2025? Because I think at this point, that would be like 609 versus the 590? Or should we think about within the range with some of those reinvestments that you discussed?
Maria Rigatti :
Yeah. So I don't want to sort of recap everything I said earlier, but I'll just take a few points. What I was saying in response, I think it was Anthony, who asked the question, first off, was that we have -- the cost of capital mechanism, it's related to interest rates. We have done a really good job completing our financing plan for 2023, hitting the marks that we have shared with you around our interest rate assumptions. The CCM, again, driven by interest rates and I'll say the more recent volatility underscores the benefit of the CCM. We see that as a hedge against interest rate movements beyond what's embedded in our forecast going forward, that's it. Second part of it is that we do year in and year out look for opportunities to reduce costs for the benefit of the customer, and of course, the benefit of our overall operations. We are managing the business every day. If we see an opportunity to accelerate benefits, we have four years -- four years ahead of us. If we see an opportunity to accelerate lock-in benefits so that we can provide an even sure foundation for customer benefit going forward, we are going to do that. The plan is in work. And as I said during the prepared remarks, we'll certainly share more with you on a go-forward basis.
Pedro Pizarro :
And Paul, I would add just more broadly on the cost of capital mechanisms, I think I saw a report, there was a, where you had some questions about the mechanism or I think you may have been speculating on potential outcomes. I want to be really clear here. This kind of situation is precisely what this mechanism was built to deal with, right? When you've had the kinds of interest rate movements that have happened here. It's not an extraordinary case in the sense of what the issue we had last year. We think it's very much quarter parcel of what the mechanism will be signed to cover and to provide appropriate cost recovery. So that's why you heard Maria say earlier when she was responding to Anthony's similar question that -- and we would expect this to be a fairly mechanical approach at the CPUC or by the Energy division, given that the mechanism is very strong, very clearly articulated and the condition static is now are precisely the conditions of the mechanism was meant to account for.
Paul Zimbardo :
Okay, great. Thank you very much, team.
Maria Rigatti :
Thanks, Paul.
Operator:
Thank you. And that was our last question. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Sam Ramraj.
Sam Ramraj:
Well, thank you, everyone, for joining us. This concludes the conference call. Have a good rest of the day. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good afternoon, and welcome to the Edison International Second Quarter 2023 Financial Teleconference. My name is Fran, and I will be your operator today. [Operator Instructions] Today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Sam Ramraj, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Ramraj, you may begin your conference.
Sam Ramraj:
Thank Fran, and welcome everyone. Our speakers today are President and Chief Executive officer, Pedro Pizarro; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Maria Rigatti. Also on the call are other members of the management team. Materials supporting today's call are available at www.edisoninvestor.com. These include Form 10-K, prepared remarks from Pedro and Maria, and the teleconference presentation. Tomorrow we will distribute our regular business update presentation. During this call, we will make forward-looking statements about the outlook for Edison International and its subsidiaries. Actual results could differ materially from current expectations. Important factors that could cause different results are set forth in our SEC filings. Please read these carefully. The presentation includes certain outlook assumptions, as well as reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure. During the question-and-answer session, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. I will now turn the call over to Pedro.
Pedro Pizarro:
Well, thanks a lot, Sam, and good afternoon, everyone. I would like to begin with three financial comments. First, driven by EIX’s impressive performance through June. We are confident in our 2023 core EPS guidance of $4.55 and $4.85. Second, we remain fully confident in and deeply committed to delivering our long-term EPS growth target of 5% to 7% from 2021 to 2025. This target incorporates all known business headwinds, but does not factor in potential tailwinds which could present significant upside. Third, based on the strength of SCE’s 2025 GRC application, and other investment opportunities, we are providing EPS growth guidance of 5% to 7% or 2025, 2028, which provides the path towards $7 in earnings per share potential for 2028. Underpinning this is the rate-based growth driven by the essential investments to advance California's clean energy transition. Importantly, these actions will maintain SCE’s cost leadership and the lowest system average rates for customers among California's investor-owned utilities for the foreseeable future. We are very proud of this commitment and I will show more about it later. On the operational front, my two key messages today are
Maria Rigatti :
Thanks, Peter and good afternoon, everyone. In my comments today, I will discuss second quarter results, our 2023 EPS guidance, and provide some additional insight into our long-term core EPS growth expectations. Starting with the second quarter of 2023, EIX reported core EPS of $1.01. As you can see from the year-over-year quarterly variance analysis shown on page 10, SCE’s second quarter earnings saw a $0.13 increase. Among the major items, GRC attrition year revenue escalation added $0.19 year-over-year. Additionally, higher FERC and other revenue added $0.04 and there was a $0.10 increase related to balancing account interest income. Partially offsetting this growth was an increase in interest expense of $0.16, driven by higher interest rates associated with funding wildfire claims payments. At EIX Parent and Other, there was a negative variance of $0.06 primarily due to higher holding company interest expense. Overall, we are pleased with our performance through the first half of the year and are confident in delivering on our full-year core EPS guidance of $4.55 to $4.85, laid out on page 11, which we are reaffirming today. I will now discuss SCE’s capital expenditure forecast, shown on page 12. Following SCE’s 2025 GRC filing in May, we introduced our 2023 through 2028 capital plan of $38 to $43 billion, underpinned by spending covered by SCE’s 2021 and 2025 general rate cases. During the 2025 GRC cycle, which extends through 2028, we project annual capital deployment to be in the $8 billion range, which is double the level from only six years ago. Over 85% of SCE’s investments are in its distribution grid. These are essential to meeting reliability, resiliency, and readiness objectives that support the widespread electrification and decarbonization needed to meet California’s greenhouse gas reduction goals. You may ask, how do you plan to finance this significant step-up in CapEx? The vast majority will be financed with cash from operations and debt. Between 2025 and 2028, we expect our equity needs will be fulfilled using internal programs, which typically bring in about$100 million of equity annually, totaling about $400 million over the period. We expect this financing plan to keep us within the 15% to 17% FFO-to-debt range through 2028. As a reminder, this financing plan does not incorporate potential cost recovery in the legacy wildfire proceedings. I want to highlight that SCE’s capital expenditure forecast does not include substantial additional capital deployment opportunities. There is at least $2 billion of potential investment that SCE will request in standalone applications over the next couple of years. As you may recall, filing standalone applications in California is typical when major projects are still in early stages at the time GRC testimony is developed. Let me give you some historical perspective. You can see on page 13 that SCE has obtained approvals of standalone applications for approximately $3 billion of capital spending over the past two rate case cycles. Discrete applications have contributed meaningful growth in the past, and we expect that to continue in the future. To wrap up my comments on the upside opportunities, CAISO’s recently approved transmission plan identified 17 projects that upgrade SCE’s existing facilities. As the incumbent transmission owner, these projects represent at least $2.3 billion of FERC transmission investment for SCE. The CAISO plan also identified $3 billion of competitive projects in southern California that SCE will be able to compete for. Turning to page 14, SCE’s GRC request supports approximately 6% to 8% rate base growth, starting from a 2023 base of $41.9 billion, which itself is nearly 20% higher than only two years ago. Rate base growth through 2028 is driven by the crucial grid infrastructure needed to facilitate California’s leading role in transitioning to a carbon-free economy. Page 15 shows our progress in successfully executing the parent company’s 2023 financing plan. SCE and the parent issued debt during the quarter and both transactions were well within our average projected refinancing rates by 2025, further bolstering our confidence in achieving our 2025 EPS guidance. Page 16 provides an update on the CPUC cost of capital mechanism. Given that the Moody’s BAA utility bond index is trading well above the deadband with only two months remaining in the annual measurement period, it is likely the mechanism will trigger. We believe an upward ROE adjustment is justified given the current interest rate environment has increased the utility cost of capital in line with the overall financial market. Once triggered, SCE will file an advice letter to implement the adjustment to the 2024 ROE, and update the costs of debt and preferred equity. The CPUC equity ratio will remain at 52% on an adjusted basis, consistent with the proposed decision issued yesterday afternoon to extend SCE’s capital structure waiver for two years or until final decisions have been made on cost recovery for the 2017 and 2018 events. I’ve previously discussed our operational excellence program and noted that we would share updates along the way. SCE’s employee-driven ideas have identified O&M savings for customers that are already reflected in the GRC request. We work tirelessly to continue fleshing out these ideas and finding additional benefits for customers, irrespective of the GRC cycle. I’m pleased to share some tangible examples of our successful efforts to find efficiencies, which you can see on page 17. Starting on the left side, in May, the CPUC approved SCE’s expanded wildfire self-insurance program, which saves customers approximately $160 million per year and has the potential for greater long-term savings. In the category of work planning, we’ve successfully implemented our wildfire mitigation plan year in and year out and have continually found ways to improve. To give you an example, SCE programmatically inspects about 216,000 structures in high fire risk areas every year from the ground and the air, which in the past was performed by distinct teams. We have transformed the program by combining ground and aerial inspections into a single, 360- degree inspection process. This reduces driving time in the field, benefits safety for field personnel, and improves overall quality and customer experience. Through this effort, we expect to generate nearly $55 million in cumulative O&M savings. In the category of procurement, we are successfully finding ways to buy better. We recently re-evaluated the prescription benefit provider in our healthcare plans and switched vendors, achieving about $50 million of cumulative O&M savings, while maintaining the level of benefits and service for our employees. These are just representative examples that clearly demonstrate the value our team can uncover and implement in a short period of time. We are excited about such opportunities to provide savings to customers, and we will continue to share additional examples with you in the future. Turning to our financial commitments, we remain confident in our 5% to 7% EPS growth rate guidance from 2021 through 2025. I reiterate our management team’s steadfast focus on delivering this growth. Additionally, for the 2025 to 2028 period, we expect to continue core EPS growth of 5% to 7%, which provides a pathway toward $7 earnings per share potential for 2028, shown on page 18. For you to further understand this pathway, we have also provided some key sensitivities on page 25 of the appendix. We see this long-term EPS growth as highly achievable for three primary reasons
Sam Ramraj:
Fran, please open the call for questions. As a reminder, we request you to limit yourself to one question and one follow-up, so everyone in line has the opportunity to ask questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Ryan Levine with Citi. Sir, your line is open.
Ryan Levine :
Thank you. In terms of your longer term growth outlook, what do you see as the biggest risk to achieving the longer-term 5% to 7% LF through 2028? And from a financing standpoint, you highlighted a couple billion dollars worth of upsides. To the extent that that were to materialize how would you look to fund that?
Maria Rigatti :
Yeah, so Ryan. Hi, nice to hear from you. In terms of your first question, what I really want to focus on is, you'd ask about risk to the 5% to 7% growth. We think that it's highly achievable. We also think that as we move forward into ‘25 through ’28 period that the story and the profile is much simplified. We've worked through a bunch of headwinds that we were dealing with in the ‘21 through ’25 period and we've managed through those and we are reaffirming our 5% to 7% percent growth rate. And as we move into the next period, you'll see a lot of those things because they stabilized really allow us to focus on the key factors of our business, which frankly are rate base growth. And so when you ask about, if we get, we realized these other potential CapEx opportunities, some of which we will be filing for in the next year or so, what the equity program would need to look like, I think it really – we’ll have to take a look at that as when the dollars actually start to hit, because we're always targeting that 15% to 17% FFO to debt range. The financing plan, we put in front of you during the comments earlier today is absolutely supportive of that 15% to 17% FFO to debt and as the other capital comes in, depending on where we are in that range, it will drive whether or not we need more equity. So I think we'll see when those dollars come in the door.
Pedro Pizarro :
You know, Ryan this is Pedro, let me just underscore the first question. The need for this infrastructure build is so clear and strong. Thinking of that the team at SCE has done a nice job encapsulating that in the general rate case application, we will have other pieces as Maria discussed or the need will also be very strong. So to me, it kind of enter because it needs to be for infrastructure of that’s really needed for reliability and resiliency and readiness. And that's the big opportunity here and that's why we're so confident.
Ryan Levine :
Great. In fact, I guess, one follow-up. In terms of the O&M cost outlook, you highlighted some changing vendors, more broadly, how are you seeing inflation pressures across your supply chain and then any color you could share around your outlook on the O&M cost base?
Maria Rigatti :
Sure, maybe we'll have Steve Powell kind of address what we're seeing with some of the vendors. He's the CEO of the utilities. Steve?
Steven Powell :
Yeah, so, we've got a lot of the vendors that we work with on multi-year agreements. So we are regularly going back to remarket as we get towards the end of those agreements. Certainly, over the last couple of years we've seen escalations in labor rates as well as on the material side. I think the global supply chain crunch has extended time frames for paying everything from customer meters to transformers to switchgear, which is also driving cost up. And so, those are all - those are all things that our team is constantly getting ahead of the building inventories. It's also things that we are baking into our general rate case and we have inflation adjustment mechanisms in the rate case to take that into account. And so these are things that we've got the mechanisms to manage through our rate case. And we're constantly looking at different ways to work with our vendors to drive the cost of the services down.
Pedro Pizarro :
I think as you are looking at longer term, we will also start seeing the benefits across the economy of things like the CHIPS laws Act, right. The focus of the federal government has had I'm bringing back manufacturing supply to domestically. So that's not a next year thing. And so, the answer to the question, what went into the near term? But I'm also a confident in the longer term supply chains will respond to market signals and the impact of, the CHIPS laws to act and other infrastructure bill et cetera in bringing back manufacturing for supply of critical components in the US will help.
Ryan Levine :
Great. Thank you.
Pedro Pizarro :
Well, thanks, Ryan.
Ryan Levine :
Our next question from Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners. Sir your line is open.
Pedro Pizarro :
Hi, Shar.
Shar Pourreza:
Hey guys. Hey Pedro. I just want to get a sense here. Obviously claims cost recovery and CCM trigger, CAISO transmission opportunities, it's pretty significant, it's incremental. So I guess, should we be thinking about these opportunities to save their food at extending that 5% to 7% growth rate or could we see a step up increase assuming that we get some of these in plan.
Maria Rigatti :
Yeah, so maybe, Shar let's first check through some of them that you mentioned.
Shar Pourreza:
Yes. Yes.
Maria Rigatti :
So, the CAISO opportunities are significant as you say, $2.3 billion for the projects for which SCE is being the incumbent transmission owner, Those are largely going to be incurred, probably post 2028. So, that's a runway issue, right? You've talked about the CCM trigger. We absolutely believe that two months left as I said before, it's highly likely that the CCM will trigger. And then, we think that it is fully supported by what's going on in the broad financial market. We are not relying on the CCM trigger for our 5% to 7% growth trajectories. So we will go through that process as we go through that process. I would also note that by the time we get to 2028 we are going to get another cost of capital cycle though. So, you'll see some interplay there. And then in terms of claims cost recovery, as Pedro said earlier, we have been fully prudent and we will make a strong case for our cost recovery when we file our application, in August. The proceeds from that, of course, would be used to pay down existing debt at SCE. And so you would see for sure, it will be a help to our earnings profile because interest expense is currently hitting the bottom-line would be authorized for recovery and also we will have an improvement on credit metrics. So I think you'll see a lot of improvements from all of those things and we'll take them as they come.
Shar Pourreza:
Perfect. And then, obviously, there's - one of your peers in this state is inching closer to selling part of its you do regulated Janko. There seems to be a lot of interest. There seems to be a wide amount of interest. You have a lot of CapEx, the stock still kind of trades at a bit of a healthy discount. Do you see other efficient ways to fund this capital increase versus having to rely on the equity markets, especially if you see the step up?
Maria Rigatti :
So first, I would note in terms of the equity financing plan that we put forward for ‘25 to ’28, we're really talking about our internal programs. So that's about a $100 million a year for you typically realize through that program. So just to cite that for you. In terms of looking at other opportunities beyond that for other forms of financing, we will certainly watch with interest what's going on up in the north. But there's a regulatory process that we need to be gone through. And so I think it's just for us and observational point at this point in time.
Pedro Pizarro :
To read, Shar, the core thing as Maria walked you through the strength of the capital program, the strong growth rate and we expect that we can do all of that with only the internal programs. So that's a – I think it's good strong statement about the very limited equity needs and how manageable we expect this to be.
Shar Pourreza:
No. It's fantastic. Thank you, Pedro and Maria. Appreciate the additional color guys. Have a good evening.
Maria Rigatti :
Thanks, Shar.
Operator:
Our next question from Gregg Orrill with UBS. Sir, your line is open.
Pedro Pizarro :
Hello Gregg.
Gregg Orrill:
Hey. Congratulations. The transmission CapEx. You highlighted from the CALISO awards. How does that process renew itself over time? How often do those occur? Should we be expecting more CapEx to be identified?
Pedro Pizarro :
Yeah, let's have Steve talk about the CALISO’s planning process.
Steven Powell:
Right. So, the California Independent System Operator create - develops and approves these projects through their transmission planning process, which they're putting out updated plans on a regular basis going forward. They have a 20-year outlook that defines the big picture project that need to happen over a long time. The last one they did identified about $30 billion of project need to happen over the next 20 years. Now they're going through and developing these ten-year plans. And right now, they're working through the process with the current approved plan of both gain the incumbent projects assigned. And so we know that we've got our $2.3 billion of projects we need to do and they run their competitive process for their competitive projects in the current planned ten year cycle. There's three projects that are going out to bid that are worth approximately $3 billion based on their early estimates. I mean, those bids will go we do in the later in the fall and September and October and bids will be awarded next year. They'll work their way through that process. A new plan has been developed and put out another two years out and then they will continue to work that cycle as they did assign new projects on the horizon that are filling out what's in their long-term outlook.
Gregg Orrill:
Great. Thanks a lot.
Pedro Pizarro :
Thanks, Gregg.
Operator:
Our next question is from Angie Storozynski with Seaport and ma'am, your line is open.
Pedro Pizarro :
Hello, Angie.
Angie Storozynski:
How are you? So, first with the operation of - so just so I understand. So if there is, if you will have, if you see upsides to earnings associated with the cost of capital or any other drivers, should I expect that there's some offsets from those operational variances? And I understand that a big portion of that this AC DC, but again, if their a portion that can go up and down depending of how much you basically need to meet your earnings goals?
Maria Rigatti :
Angie, that’s a great question and I think maybe I'll step back for a second and historically we've given you some of the information to kind of think through our business and our operating model, if you will. We've kind of bucketed things into a number of different line items. And one of the operational variances that you just referred to. But when we think about our business, underneath those four line items, there's many, many more things that we're actually managing. And so, as we roll forward and we are thinking about ‘25 through ‘28, we've tried to actually provide you with some additional information that's more granular. That we’re hoping is going to be allow you to get more insight into our business. So as an example, what have we talked about in that 2025 operational variances bucket? We've talked about AFEDC, we talked about the timing of regulatory approvals, we talk about operational efficiencies we've talked about depreciation and we kind of, given you some insights into that. If we roll forward to between ‘25 and ’28, you'll see the sensitivity is actually go right to, okay? So what is the sensitivity around AFEDC? And if you see because our capital program is growing so rapidly and so robustly, but the time we get to 2028 AFEDC is like in the $0.45 range as opposed to being in the $0.30 to $0.35 range that it was before. We've given you some depreciation sensitivities that you can factor in. Frankly, by the time we get to 2028, we don't actually see regular – the timing of regulatory proceedings or O&M variances as being the major drivers for that part of the model, if you will. So I think that's how we're trying to provide you with that additional information, as well as all the other sensitivities that people like to ask us about like, interest rate assumptions and things like that. So, as I think that's hopefully a more granular approach to how we think about our business.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question from Anthony Crowdell with Mizuho. Sir, your line is open.
Anthony Crowdell:
Hey, good afternoon, Maria. Good afternoon, Pedro. Just one quick question on slide 4 talking about the application of the key KM events. Just if you could maybe provide as much as you know on the timing of how long it will take for that application to play out? And then more specifically, what type of - I guess Part D meet with parties ahead of time or any type of feedback you give us on your meeting with any of the interveners right now in the application. Thank you.
Pedro Pizarro :
Yeah. Thanks, Anthony. We're going to be requesting or we expect we’ll request an 18 month timeline for the proceeding. It's a - we think that's an appropriate amount of time for something like this. I think at a very high level before we file any application, we'll meet with a range of stakeholders as appropriate tickets. Those are really more listening sessions than anything. So I don't think we have anything that we will report back and we would be appropriate anyway, but just be aware that we are making sure folks understand the underpinning case here, right? We believe after having looked at all the evidence that we were prudent and we're providing visibility into the strength of our arguments as well as the process here. And importantly, the need for a fair outcome in these cases. We recognize this is not just about getting cost recovery of costs that we think are appropriately recoverable. But we also recognize that this is a strong signal here, but California’s continued commitment to financially help the utilities. And so, we will do you'll see their application covers a range of issues around with the rationale for this battling terms of the merits of the case. But the importance of this being, another key step in affirming the strength of the California regulatory framework.
Anthony Crowdell:
Great. Thank you so much for taking my question.
Pedro Pizarro :
Yeah, thanks, Anthony.
Operator:
Our next question is from David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley and your line is open.
Pedro Pizarro :
Hey, David.
David Arcaro :
Hey, thanks so much for taking my questions. Let me see. One, maybe a little bit of housekeeping item. I was just wondering if you could give any outlook for equity needs into 2024, it seems like we've got a good clarity around it. But just curious if there's any specific financing that we should be keeping an eye on for ’24?
Maria Rigatti :
I think we'll be relying on our internal programs in 2024, as well.
David Arcaro :
Okay, got it. So it should be I guess in that same $100 million, roughly cadence.
Maria Rigatti :
That's been what we've been realizing, yeah.
David Arcaro :
Okay? Got it. And then, I was just wondering longer term, I guess the rate base growth comes down as you look, if I just look at rate base growth ‘25 to ‘28 it's more like 5% to 7%. I know it's early on, but and that it kind of lines up then with the EPS growth in the 5% to 7% range. Does that get tied in your mind or is the rate base growth just likely to escalade over time as new CapEx plans are identified?
Maria Rigatti :
I'm not sure I quite follow what you mean by tight. Can you expand on that a little bit?
David Arcaro :
Oh sure. I guess, you know, historically, you've had a gap between the rate base growth level and the EPS growth rate level. And I guess, at looking out further into the planned rate base growth ends up being kind of equating to EPS growth. I'm just wondering if that's just an early stage dynamic or if we start to see a gap widening out over time?
Maria Rigatti :
Thank you for clarifying. Yeah, I know we are very comfortable with that 5% to 7% EPS growth in combination with that 5% to 7% rate base growth. So, those things that have been happening here in the next five years is different than the last five years, right? And so, in the past, you've seen the gap actually widen out because of the things that, we were dealing with going from a lower amount of debt. For example, wildfire claims got to a higher amount having the interest rate environment on us during that period. As we get into the ‘25 through ’28 period, things have stabilized. We have now - at the end of this quarter, we had $6 billion outstanding on Wildfire claims that. So everything is baked in and that period. If you think about even what we're refinancing around Wildfire claims debt during that five-year period, that debt was actually issued in the more recent interest rate environment. So the average of that average rate for the debt that we're refinancing is already about 4.6%. So you are seeing a lot of things sort of stabilize. I think the other thing you are going to start to see is, at the parent company we’re obviously seeing our costs increase at a slower rate now and we will be looking to refinance through the - some of the outstanding maturities with more efficient vehicle that as you saw us do that earlier this year. Like for as an example, when we needed equity content securities, we moved away from preps into junior subordinated notes. And I think the one other thing that kind of drives the ability to have those two numbers EPS and rate base growth move together and as you'll see that the AFEDC is increasing quite strongly over that period. And that also makes difference.
David Arcaro :
Got it. Thanks. Very helpful. And just - sorry if this is a little repetitive, but just on operational variances, I see that AFEDC is rising from the ‘25 to ’28 period. Do - is there much change in the rest of the operational variances bucket between the ‘25 level where you have to find it versus where it'll end up in ‘28?
Maria Rigatti :
Yes, so we've also included a sensitivity there to depreciation. We talked about those depreciation variances before. And you can see where we now call that out for folks. So you can actually do a little bit of the investigation yourself. As we modify CapEx and we go from our request case to our range case, you can see that we've made a lot of simplifying assumptions. So at a minimum, in the lower CapEx cases, you need to make a 15 - you may – you need to have an assumption about a $0.15 depreciation adjustment. So that variance is additive to some to the other numbers that you would get in terms of rate base growth. I think, as we look out in time, the other things that we've talked about in terms of timing and regulatory proceedings and O&M efficiencies, we just don't see them as big drivers as we get out to 2028.
David Arcaro :
Okay. Understood. Thank you so much.
Pedro Pizarro :
Thanks Dave.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from David Paz with Wolfe Research. And sir, your line is open.
Pedro Pizarro :
Hello, David.
David Paz:
Yes. Hello guys. Thank you for the time. Just on the growth rates, can you maybe address where - would you be on the low end or lower half of your growth rate if the ROE remains at 10.05%.
Maria Rigatti :
We assume 10.05% across the entire range 5% to 7%. S,o it's embedded in all of our scenarios.
David Paz:
Okay. And then, forgive me if this slide here I am missing it. But what level of cash recoveries are you expecting aside from GRC in the TKM, which I know you're not expecting, but aside from those proceedings, what level of cash recovery to ‘28 has been embedded in your plan? I think for instance, you had $1 billion of recovery in 2024, in the slide earlier this year, I believe. Any sense of what we should assume for cash recoveries through ’28?
Maria Rigatti :
Yeah. So in fact, over the past couple of years, we've actually recovered $3 billion in cash from these memo accounts that folks have heard us talk about before. Over the next two years, we expect to recover about $2 billion from those same types of accounts. And just to just to reiterating and clarify, maybe something that you mentioned, we are not assuming recovery on any of the ‘17, ‘18 Wildfire Legacy claims.
David Paz:
Right. Right. Got it. Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from Nick Campanella with Barclays. Your line is open sir.
Nick Campanella :
Hey everyone. I hope you're doing well. Good to reconnect. Thanks for my question. I guess, I'm sorry if I missed it, as well. But acknowledging that you reaffirm in ‘23 as well as the 570 midpoint for ‘25 just can you give us a sense of how to think about ‘24? Are you going to be in that 5% to 7% range?
Maria Rigatti :
Yeah. So, we have a number of things that we are going to be looking at moving pieces before we get formal guidance for 2024. So we still have our track for items that have to be resolved. We have other regulatory filings. I think frankly, when we are tracking interest rates, we will be looking at the CCM potentially triggering. So, we will be providing that update when we give guidance. Now, I just do want to reiterate that that CCM trigger is relevant, but it's not relevant for our ‘21 through ‘25 or 25 or our ‘25 through ‘28 5% to 7% EPS CAGR.
Nick Campanella :
Absolutely. And I guess, that's a good segue. Have similar question to Anthony just some CPUC process, but the CCM trigger can you just walk us through the timing. Obviously, I guess you filed an advice letter in October with the goal to have something out by year end. But just how do you kind of see it playing out?
Maria Rigatti :
Yeah, so the way the process works is, once the measurement period ends, so that that would be September 30th is the end. We would then in October be filing an advice letter. The Tier two advice letter which means it goes to the energy division. And the energy division can disposition the letter. People are permitted to protest if if they desire that and if they do, then the energy division will make a decision as to whether or not they will continue to be the entity that dispositions it or if they send it to an ALJ or the broader commission. We believe that it is fully reasonable to have the trigger go - be triggered given the current environment. Remember that the interest rate changes that are going on right now are really fundamentally the reason why the commission adopted a CCM or a cost of capital mechanism, 12 or 14 years ago. It was to accommodate changes in a three-year cost of capital proceeding when the interest rate market and the interest rate environment changed. So, we would continue to pursue that. We think that additionally not dissimilar to 2022 that there is no extraordinary event. The market is acting the way it is and the same manner with us is the broader financial market. So we will go through that process as we filed the advice letter.
Nick Campanella :
Thanks for all the information.
Pedro Pizarro :
Thanks, Nick.
Operator:
Our next question from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America. Your line is now open.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith :
Hey. Good afternoon team. Thanks so much for the time we appreciate it very much. Hey, just coming back to the earlier question, just to understand a little bit more, you talk about depreciation sensitivity. Can you explain the - just how that contributes to the earnings variances in ‘28? I appreciate the sensitivity I wondered how that sensitivity might apply in this case? Where it might come from?
Maria Rigatti :
Sure. So, the sensitivity that we provided it's on the - in the appendix page. It gives you a range of outcomes. And there's two different elements at work there. We provide you with the capital forecast that is tied to our request – the request that we made in the general rate case. And when we do that, we have a lot of data from the general rate case that allows us to put that together. When we give you the other points on the curve, when we take CapEx down, just to provide you with a little bit more insight as to what that would look like in terms of rate base, we make some very simplifying assumptions. So when we convert those lower CapEx levels into rate base, we made simplifying assumptions about the timing of when the CapEx is spent. We made simplifying assumptions about the type of CapEx that gets reduced. So, when we get to the lower end of the capital range, you end up with that depreciation variance again. So, at the lower end of the CapEx, you'll get a $0.15 - you will need to make a $0.15 adjustment. And it's very similar to the depreciation variances that we talk about during the rate case cycle when CapEx turns out to be a little different than what's embedded in your actual authorize. The other piece of the sensitivity that we provided is, we've made a request in the general rate case or – and we made a depreciation proposal. We know that sometimes, the outcomes of that may vary. And so, we've also given you a sensitivity as to what would happen to earnings and ultimately you can patch rate base, so what would happen to earnings if our depreciation proposal is modified from what's requested? So those are the two things.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith :
Thank you for the clarity there. And just to follow up real quickly, to some of the equity capital ratio, given the waiver here, where do you stand today on that for the - at the utility level here? And what are you forecasting through the forecast period to be at ‘25 or ‘28 and ultimately what kind of time period are you forecasting it back to presumably post the conclusion of the proceeding to get back to operated level?
Maria Rigatti :
So, the proposed decision that we received yesterday extends our capital structure waiver. So, I guess, the most basic answer to your question is we are at 52% because we have the waiver. Roll that forward, we are not assuming that we will get any cost recovery for the ‘17 and ‘18 Legacy Wildfire claims and deaths. So if you roll that forward and we don't get that then we would have to at the end of that process propose a plan to get back into conformance with the authorized capital structure. We can propose a plan that we think is appropriate. We could do a number of things. We could start with proposing that the differences be excluded because this is not rate base, right, so we exclude this permanently from our capital structure. There's some precedent there. We know we got this that sort of treatment on the song settlement. More recently, we had that same treatment on the on the amounts that were disallowed on the SEB settlement. So that would be one approach that we would take. That would be our plan to be in conformance. At the other end of the spectrum, we could also just move that debt up to the parent company, and then we would propose a timeline over which we would do it. And as we did that, we would not be impacting - we've already issued the equity to support all of those claims. So it could be a little bit more expensive, but it would be within our current credit metrics. And just as a reminder that the equity ratio is actually measured over a 36-month period.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith :
Excellent. Thank you very much. Appreciate it.
Maria Rigatti :
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And now I'd like to turn the call back to Mr. Sam Ramraj for closing remarks. Thank you. So, thank you for joining us. This concludes the conference call. Have a good rest of the day and stay safe. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good afternoon, and welcome to the Edison International First Quarter 2023 Financial Teleconference. My name is Ted, and I will be your operator today. [Operator Instructions] Today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Sam Ramraj, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Ramraj, you may begin your conference.
Sam Ramraj:
Thank you, Ted, and welcome, everyone. Our speakers today are President and Chief Executive officer, Pedro Pizarro; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Maria Rigatti. Also on the call are other members of the management team. Materials supporting today's call are available at www.edisoninvestor.com. These include Form 10-Q, prepared remarks from Pedro and Maria, and the teleconference presentation. Tomorrow we will distribute our regular business update presentation. During this call, we will make forward-looking statements about the outlook for Edison International and its subsidiaries. Actual results could differ materially from current expectations. Important factors that could cause different results are set forth in our SEC filings. Please read these carefully. The presentation includes certain outlook assumptions as well as reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure. During the question-and-answer session, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. I will now turn the call over to Pedro.
Pedro Pizarro:
Well, thanks a lot, Sam, and good afternoon, everybody. Edison International's core EPS for the first quarter 2023 was $1.09. We are pleased with our start to the year and are confident in affirming our 2023 core EPS guidance of $4.55 to $4.85. We also remain confident in delivering our long-term EPS growth target of 5% to 7% from 2021 through 2025. Maria will discuss our financial performance and outlook. My key message today is that we continue to see a number of positives in the near-term and in the long-term, and these make us excited for our company’s future. SCE’s actions to sustain and strengthen the electric grid, mitigate wildfires, and enable decarbonization through electrification are critically needed by California and are increasing our investment opportunity. In the longer-term, our Pathway 2045 analysis highlights the continued investment in transmission and distribution needed to evolve the grid. This is being recognized by regulators in California. In 2021, the California ISO released a 20-year plan estimating about $30 billion of transmission investment needed through 2040, consistent with our Pathway analysis. Only a few weeks ago, CAISO published its Draft 2022 to 2023 Transmission Plan, with its current thinking on system needs over the next 10 years. Their draft plan calls for 46 transmission projects with a total estimated cost of $9.3 billion. Over $2 billion of that represents proposed incumbent projects for SCE, and over $5 billion represents FERC Order 1000 competitive projects within Southern California for which SCE will be able to compete. In the near-term, SCE continues its diligent execution of its Wildfire Mitigation Plan and has reduced the probability of losses from catastrophic wildfires by 75% to 80% compared to pre-2018 levels, predominantly from grid hardening measures that allow the utility to mitigate risk while keeping electricity flowing to our customers. I want to say thanks again to the many of you who visited us in person at our headquarters and heard directly from several of our leaders about the utility’s achievements and ongoing actions. In March, SCE filed its 2023 through 2025 WMP with the Office of Energy Infrastructure Safety. Highlights of the plan are shown on Page 3. Our number one priority remains the safety of the public, customers, workers, and first responders. In 2023, the utility is building on the work already accomplished while focusing on five key areas
greenhouse gas:
I will conclude by noting that even as SCE makes substantial investment in the grid to keep the utility and the state on track for decarbonization and electrification efforts, affordability is always top-of-mind. SCE’s long-standing culture of actively pursuing and maintaining productivity improvement and cost control measures has enabled it to have the lowest system average rate among California investor owned utilities. Some recent examples include the pending settlement agreement with TURN and Cal Advocates to move to a customer-funded wildfire self-insurance model and SCE’s operational excellence program, which includes over 600 employee-driven ideas with capital efficiency and O&M benefits. These include work planning, procurement, and technology as shown on Page 4. Beyond these, we will constantly pursue new opportunities for digitization, automation, and generative artificial intelligence to drive further improvements in customer interactions, asset data quality, and back-office efficiencies. The expected benefits should progressively increase as we accelerate implementation through 2024 and beyond, further benefiting affordability for SCE's customers. With that, Maria will provide her financial report.
Maria Rigatti:
Sam Ramraj:
Ted, please open the call for questions. As a reminder we request you to limit yourself to one question and one followup so everyone in line has the opportunity to ask questions.
Operator:
The phone line is now open for questions. [Operator Instructions] The first question is from Angie Storozynski with Seaport. Your line is now open.
Pedro Pizarro:
Hi, Angie.
Angie Storozynski:
Thank you. How are you? Okay, so my first question is still just looking at the settlements of the 2017 and 2018 claims, so didn’t settle more since basically the fourth quarter update?
Maria Rigatti:
No. Angie, this is Maria. We actually settled about $148 million in additional claims during the quarter. So we have been settling more claims. We report on the amount settled in each quarter. So last quarter the pace of the demands did slow down some, but we're still very well positioned and we will be filing our first cost recovery application in Q3 for the TKM event.
Angie Storozynski:
Okay, okay, that's fine. And then for the SCC GRC application that you'll file in May, do you plan to assume positive load growth in your filing?
Pedro Pizarro:
So we will be filing that in another week and a half or so. I think we reported in our last quarter that we're seeing load growth picking up and there are assumptions built into the rate case you'll see those when we file it, but there are assumptions hoping the rate case on load growth. Steven Powell, do you have anything to add?
Steven Powell:
Hi, yes. As we, now on load growth we expect to see in the rate case focus on all the things we need to do on the grid, both to deal with customer demands like now as well as the load growth [indiscernible] investigation and other things. And so that will be a focus on reliability including looking at infrastructure replacements that has been ramped down over the last number of years while we've dealt with a lot more wildfire mitigation. So you'll see more wildfire mitigation activities in there, both continuation of our covered conductor program as well as a move towards some targeted undergrounding, continued electrification investment and of course dealing with what we project to be load growth between now and 2035 is going to be about 2% a year on average. So that was right investments in the grid and of course with all of that is making sure we're thinking about from affordability perspective balancing the needed investments in the grid with the customer's needs for affordability.
Angie Storozynski:
Okay, and then my last question for Maria, so given all of the credit upgrades and then reduction in wildfire risk, have you seen and again I could probably see myself, but have you seen a meaningful reduction in your credit spreads? I'm just wondering if everybody else in the industry is chasing growth in their cost of debt, are you guys actually seeing some reversal of the risk premium that is positioning you better versus peers in the industry?
Maria Rigatti:
Sure, so Angie I think we've -- for a long time we've had the reverse, right, where there's been a big gap between us and where the others in the industry are, we share that with the commission as well. We are seeing some improvement. I think there's still room for improvement and it's one of the things that we're very focused on over time, but we have seen some benefits from some of these recent upgrades.
Angie Storozynski:
Okay, that's great. Thank you.
Pedro Pizarro:
Thank you, Angie.
Operator:
The next question is from Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners. Your line is now open.
Shar Pourreza:
Hey guys.
Maria Rigatti:
Hey Shar.
Pedro Pizarro:
Hey, good afternoon, Shar.
Shar Pourreza:
Good afternoon. Pedro, you mentioned the CAISO transmission plan and sort of that associated CapEx opportunities in your prepared remarks. Just to clarify, those have not been assumed in your current 5% to 7% growth guidance. And maybe just tying into the CAISO AB, 538 is proposing to kind of expand CAISO into a western RTO. Does that put further tailwinds for transmission development there?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes, so on the first part of the question, no, those are not part of our 2021 to 2025 EPS growth rate. And in fact, the chances are that those projects would be early in the development process by 2025, since they're only now being identified by the Cal-ISO. One of the challenges Shar is that, today transmission development can take a decade largely because of the approval and permitting and siding processes. So, we're also looking at the efforts at the federal level and state levels to expedite permitting and siding. So that's on the transmission piece. On your question about Western regional market expansion, we're monitoring the bill. We are actually very supportive of the concept of an expanded Cal-ISO providing a platform to become a western regional market. Of course the devil will be in the details and we want to make sure that that expansion if and when it happens, and hopefully it will, but that it's done with all the right sort of safeguards in place to make sure that the right benefits accrue both to California and other state's customers. And then you asked whether that could add tailwinds and I think of it as a, it's a larger market will provide greater opportunities to minimize the cost of the clean energy transition. It will allow better sharing of resources across the west. And so at its core, I think the main benefit of it would be to provide a platform to support greater affordability for both California customers and customers across the west. And it's -- we mentioned in remarks here we are mindful of affordability. It's something we continue to focus a lot on. So anything like a western regional market that helps bring down the cost of the transition is a good thing then in terms of creating more room in our rates to either minimize rates or to provide, rate room for all the other projects that are important here. As to whether our western regional market like mean more transmission projects, ultimately for SCE it's a little harder to tell and I think the main benefit is that cost reduction for customers.
Shar Pourreza:
Got it. And then lastly, obviously you guys just completed your financing plan, but there is somewhat of a cash pay convert market forming. Several peers have tapped it, some don't even need equity. Your embedded interest cost is over 6%, which is obviously materially higher than this market. Any kind of interest there in that, and could that be sort of accretive to the current plan? Thanks.
Maria Rigatti:
Yes. So Shar, it’s Maria. So the financing we've done to date has been consistent with what we said on our last call in terms of the total $1.4 billion and the junior subordinate notes were aimed at the equity content, balance in the equity content we're going to be addressing through our internal program, so that's one piece of it. In terms of the debt financings we have to do for the balance of the year, we're going to look at all the different options. We want to be efficient. We want to consider all of the costs, the all in cost of doing that and take into consideration what both the near-term but also the longer-term potential costs associated with that. But, we're going to keep everything on our radar.
Shar Pourreza:
Perfect. That was it. Thank you guys so much.
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes, thanks Shar.
Operator:
The next question is from Ryan Levine with Citi. Your line is open.
Pedro Pizarro:
Hi, Ryan.
Ryan Levine:
Hi everybody. Follow-up on some of the transmission comments or questions. In terms of the initial FERC Order 1000 transmission projects when do you think the company is likely to pursue those from a timeline standpoint?
Pedro Pizarro:
Hey Ryan, you're cutting up a little bit. Would you mind repeating the question? Might be our bad phone line or so.
Ryan Levine:
In terms of the FERC Order, 1000 transmission lines, from a timeline standpoint, when do you think the company is looking to pursue those opportunities?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes, so it really starts with what timeline the Cal-ISO follows for the process of finalizing the transmission plan and then ultimately taking projects through that competitive process. I don't know that we have a specific time available yet, but Steve, are you aware of anything more specific at this point?
Steven Powell:
Yes, I think, so in the in the draft plan there were four projects identified that would be eligible for competition. They still have to finalize and approve the draft plan. And then in terms of the bidding windows, I believe some of the bidding windows start as early as the beginning into the summer and into the fall. So the project evaluation bidding is kind of later this year in terms of when bidders would be going in on those projects.
Ryan Levine:
Okay. And then the follow-up maybe from Maria, if those projects were to be one, what, how would you look at the financing of the incremental capital given that it's more long duration?
Maria Rigatti:
Yes, so when SCE bids and wins, we'll finance that the way we would finance our normal rate based investments, Ryan. So we'll do that in the normal course. I think that there will be a lot of opportunity for us to be able to finance all of it.
Ryan Levine:
Right. Thank you.
Pedro Pizarro:
Thanks Ryan.
Operator:
The next question is from Gregg Orrill with UBS. Your line is open.
Pedro Pizarro:
Hi, Gregg.
Gregg Orrill:
Yes, hi. Thank you. Maybe just a quick one on the pending heat pumps investment and just wondering what you would expect the duration of that program would be to spend the money, the $677 million?
Pedro Pizarro:
That was -- our proposal for that was a five-year program and it can just, I think it's either four or five-year, four-year program. And just to remind you, it's -- we proposed in there around deployment of a quarter million heat pumps. We also proposed to take about a third of the customers with getting heat pumps and upgrading their homes for broader electrification to make them electrification ready. Around 90% of the program is targeted towards residential customers, and a good portion of that is targeting low income and the disadvantage communities. It is still going through the PUC process and so, think about, four years or so deployment timeline after PUC approval.
Gregg Orrill:
Thank you very much.
Pedro Pizarro:
Thanks.
Operator:
The next question is from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America. Your line is open.
Pedro Pizarro:
Hey, good afternoon, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey, thank you guys very much. I appreciate it. Hey, look, I wanted to come back to the commentary about the update forthcoming. When you made the -- obviously mid-May we've got this rate base update coming. It seemed like in the prepared remarks you were alluding to a potential extension of the earnings outlook with the second quarter call. Can you affirm that? Just think of -- provide us some context as to the parameters that you're thinking there in the base here, et cetera? But more specifically also how you think about maybe the EPS trajectory relative to the rate base that you'll release here with mid-May.
Maria Rigatti:
Those are all great questions, Julien. Let me take them from a timing perspective first. So when we file the rate case in mid-May, we'll provide an update at that point relative to capital spend and rate base and that will be through 2028. So that's consistent with the timeline of the general rate case itself. On the Q2 call, we will then add to that our EPS projections through 2028. So your other questions are really excellent, but we'll bring all of that into play on the Q2 call.
Pedro Pizarro:
So stay tuned.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. Okay, understood. And base here will be rolled forward by a couple of years?
Maria Rigatti:
So we'll go into all that detail when we get to the Q2 call.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. All right. Excellent. Well, we will leave it there. Thank you guys. I appreciate it.
Pedro Pizarro:
All right, thanks Julien.
Maria Rigatti:
Thanks, Julien.
Operator:
And that was the last question. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Sam Ramraj.
Sam Ramraj:
Well, thank you for joining us. This concludes the conference call. Have a good rest of the day and stay safe everyone. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at this time.
Operator:
Good afternoon, and welcome to the Edison International Fourth Quarter 2022 Financial Teleconference. My name is Ted, and I will be your operator today. [Operator Instructions] Today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Sam Ramraj, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Ramraj, you may begin your conference.
Sam Ramraj:
Thank you, Ted, and welcome, everyone. Our speakers today are President and Chief Executive officer, Pedro Pizarro; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Maria Rigatti. Also on the call are other members of the management team. Materials supporting today's call are available at www.edisoninvestor.com. These include Form 10-K, prepared remarks from Pedro and Maria, and the teleconference presentation. Tomorrow we will distribute our regular business update presentation. During the call, we will make forward-looking statements about the outlook for Edison International and its subsidiaries. Actual results could differ materially from current expectations. Important factors that could cause different results are set forth in our SEC filings. Please read these carefully. The presentation includes certain outlook assumptions as well as reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure. During the question-and-answer session, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. I will now turn the call over to Pedro.
Pedro Pizarro:
Well, thanks a lot, Sam, and good afternoon, everybody. I am pleased to report that Edison International's core EPS for 2022 was $4.63, which was in the upper end of our initial guidance range. Today, we are introducing 2023 EPS guidance of $4.55 to $4.85 and we are reinforcing our strong confidence in delivering our long-term EPS growth target of 5% to 7% from 2021 through 2025. Maria will discuss our financial performance and outlook. Let's start with our key accomplishments in 2022, and they are noted on Page 3. First, we once again delivered on our annual EPS guidance, as I just mentioned. Second, SCE continued to make tremendous progress in reducing wildfire risk and PSPS. SCE successfully executed its wildfire mitigation plan and updated the key statistic shown on Page 5; that is that SCE now estimates it has reduced the probability of losses of catastrophic wildfires by 75% to 80% compared to pre-2018 levels, and critically with much lower reliance on PSPS, now only 15%, as hardening and other mitigations continue, as depicted on Page 6. Despite this strong operational and financial performance, market sentiment impacted our total shareholder return. Our TSR for 2022 trailed that of the Philadelphia Utility Sector Index and most of our peers. As shareholders ourselves, our leadership team and I are deeply committed to achieving our financial targets while strengthening SCE's ability to deliver safe, reliable, affordable, and increasingly clean electricity. Diving deeper into SCE's tremendous progress in wildfire mitigation, despite challenging weather conditions and some fires in our service area last year, 2022 marks the fourth consecutive year without a catastrophic wildfire associated with SCE's infrastructure. Key achievements in 2022 included deploying about 1,400 circuit miles of covered conductor, bringing total installations to around 4,400 circuit miles. To put this in perspective, this is nearly the round-trip distance from Los Angeles to Washington, DC. So, I am extremely proud of SCE's ongoing execution of grid hardening activities, which have made our communities safer. The utility is targeting up to another 1,200 miles of covered conductor in 2023. By year-end, approximately 74% of total distribution lines in high fire risk areas, or HFRA, including the 7,000 miles already underground, are expected to be hardened. This is a significant achievement and it is summarized on Page 7. SCE completed its one-millionth high fire risk inspection since 2019, which is like visiting every structure in HFRA at least three times. The utility continued to build out its network of weather stations, and now, with more than 1,600 in total, SCE has the largest privately-owned weather station network in the country, providing a granular view of weather-related risk to inform operations. A key result is that total acres burned from ignitions on hardened sections of our grid are 99% smaller than those in areas not yet hardened. SCE's approach to reducing wildfire risk is differentiated by the speed of its infrastructure hardening and by reducing reliance on measures that affect customer reliability, like PSPS, for example, by prioritizing hardening circuits at risk of power shutoffs. By the end of the 2023 through 2025 wildfire mitigation plan, SCE will have hardened about 7,700 miles of its overhead distribution system and scaled innovative pilots, such as Early Fault Detection. We look forward to SCE's continued success in reducing the greatest amount of wildfire risk in the shortest amount of time. Turning to the 2017 and 2018 wildfire and mudslide events outlined on Page 8. In the fourth quarter, SCE paid about $280 million in claims settlements. SCE now targets filing the TKM cost recovery application in the third quarter of 2023. Let me emphasize that SCE will seek full CPUC cost recovery, excluding amounts foregone under the agreement with the Safety Enforcement Division or already recovered. SCE will show its strong, compelling case that it operated its system prudently and that it is in the public interest to authorize full cost recovery. The utility currently expects to request about $2 billion in this first application. Our financial assumptions for 2025 and beyond do not factor in any potential upside from the cost recovery applications, which would represent substantial value. Looking ahead, I want to highlight key management focus areas for 2023; these are laid out on Page 9. First and foremost, safety is foundational to our values and success, and we are targeting reducing the rates of employee injuries by 15%. Tragically, a utility troubleman, Johnny Kinkade, died from a work-related injury last month, and 1,200 of us joined his loved ones at his memorial service last week. This was our first employee work-related fatality in 5.5 years and it redoubled my resolve and it redoubled our team's resolve to make it our very last. SCE's unwavering commitment to keeping our communities safe through wildfire mitigation also continues. The utility plans to keep its pace of about 100 miles per month of covered conductor, reaching a total of 5,600 miles by year-end. Again, filing the first cost recovery application for the historical wildfires is a front-and-center focus area for us. On the regulatory front, SCE looks forward to its upcoming 2025 GRC application and will monitor the cost of capital mechanism, which could result in significant upside to 2024 earnings should it trigger. On the financial side, we will be focused on achieving our capital expenditure and earnings goals, as well as pursuing upgrades to our credit ratings. We believe this is well-warranted considering the significant wildfire risk reduction by SCE, the state's strong firefighting capabilities, and supportive California regulation. Looking toward the future, the support for economywide electrification continues to grow nationally and here in California. We've shared before that we forecast electricity usage growing 60% by 2045, yes, that's a big six zero. And previously, we projected almost flat annual growth through 2030 followed by a steep trajectory through 2045, but we are now seeing earlier increases with the breadth of legislation, regulations, and codes and standards approved last year. SCE has updated its electricity sales forecast to reflect these significant policy changes and now projects about 2% annual growth from 2023 through 2035. Both transportation and building electrification forecasts have increased significantly, narrowing the gap to our Pathway 2045 analysis. This strong electrification load growth outlook is also consistent with the California Energy Commission's forecast based on the state's decarbonization policies, providing a source of external validation. Rapid expansion of electrification sharpens the continued need to make significant investments in SCE's infrastructure. Over the coming years, SCE will continue to invest in wildfire mitigation and increase its grid work to support California's leading role in building a carbon-free economy. With growth in electricity demand, this significant grid investment will be spread over a higher volume of sales, supporting affordability overall. SCE's system average rate is already the lowest among major California investor-owned utilities and we expect it will be the lowest for the foreseeable future. All of this, wildfire risk reduction, cost recovery for historical wildfires, the clean electrification investment opportunity, and, importantly, our confidence in the 2025 EPS target, makes me excited about our near-term steps and our long-term growth, so I am confident that investors will fully recognize our significant value creation. And with that, let me turn it over to Maria for the financial report.
Maria Rigatti:
Thanks, Pedro. Good afternoon, everyone. Let me start by highlighting that Edison International's core EPS of $4.63 for 2022 was in the upper end of our initial guidance range. In my comments today, I will discuss fourth quarter results, our 2023 EPS guidance, and our 2023 financing plan. Starting with the fourth quarter of 2022, EIX reported core EPS of $1.15. As you can see from the year-over-year quarterly variance analysis, shown on Page 10, SCE's fourth quarter earnings increased primarily due to GRC attrition year escalation. This was partially offset by higher depreciation expense and higher net interest expense. The latter was driven by higher interest rates associated with funding 2017 and 2018 wildfire claims payments. At EIX Parent and Other, there was a negative variance of $0.03, primarily due to higher holding company interest expense. I would now like to discuss SCE's capital and rate base forecasts, shown on Pages 11 and 12. These are largely consistent with last quarter's disclosures. I want to emphasize that SCE has significant capital expenditure opportunities driven by investments in the safety and reliability of the grid. We continue to project strong rate base growth of 7% to 9% from 2021 to 2025. The forecast also incorporates SCE's current view of the requests to be made in the 2025 GRC, and other applications. SCE files its 2025 GRC application and testimony in May and we will update our forecasts and extend them through 2028 before our second quarter earnings call. Turning to our earnings outlook, we are initiating 2023 core EPS guidance of $4.55 to $4.85. I will cover the components of 2023 guidance in a moment, but first I want to frame our year-over-year EPS growth. The primary driver is rate base growth, which we expect to be approximately 8.5% in 2023. However, you can see that our guidance range implies relatively flat to modest growth for the year. To help you bridge the difference, Page 13 lays out core EPS growth year-over-year. The primary reason for the difference is higher interest expense at both the parent and SCE. Refinancing of debt at the parent and debt for historical wildfire claims payments drive the increase. To put this in perspective, of the gap between 2023 rate base and EPS growth, about 75% can be attributed to SCE's wildfire settlement-related debt. While SCE is carrying this financing cost until they reach cost recovery resolution, I want to be very clear that the utility expects to seek full CPUC cost recovery of all eligible claims payments, including financing costs. Please turn to Page 14 for 2023 guidance and key earnings drivers. The components of our EPS guidance start with rate base math, which we forecast at $5.68. Let's next discuss SCE operational variances, which have a net contribution to guidance of $0.48 to $0.75 per share. The major contributors are shown on the right side of the page. SCE costs excluded from authorized are $0.71, with the biggest contributor being interest expense on debt for wildfire claims payments. For EIX Parent and Other, we expect a total expense of $0.87 to $0.90 per share. I would now like to provide the parent company's 2023 financing plan. I'll preface this by saying that regardless of the specific instruments we use, our financing plan is fully reflected in our EPS guidance. Turning to Page 15, we project total EIX parent financing needs of $1.4 billion. We expect this to be financed with a combination of securities with $300 million to 400 million of equity content and parent debt for the remainder. As a reminder, we issue securities with equity content to support our investment grade credit ratings, which we are firmly committed to maintaining. To achieve our desired level of equity content, we may use a combination of hybrid securities, internal programs, or our existing at-the-market program. Page 16 provides an update on the CPUC cost of capital mechanism. If the 12-month average of the Moody's Baa utility bond index exceeds 5.37% at the end of September, the mechanism calls for increasing the ROE by half the difference between the average and 4.37%. Importantly, the mechanism also resets the authorized costs of debt and preferred equity. Through February 16, the measurement period average is around 5.8%. We will be monitoring this over the next seven months as an -- and as an aid for understanding the specifics of the mechanism, we have provided a spreadsheet on our Investor Relations website that you can download. Looking ahead, we are reiterating our 5% to 7% EPS growth rate guidance from 2021 through 2025, which translates to 2025 EPS of $5.50 to $5.90, laid out on Page 17. My management team and I are fully committed to delivering on this target. I will note that this EPS target incorporates assumptions to accommodate the higher interest rate environment, but does not include the upside potential associated with the cost of capital mechanism, which adjusts ROE and updates the costs of debt and preferred. To provide you with a sensitivity, if the mechanism does trigger, that would increase the ROE by a minimum of 50 basis points, and each 50 basis points of ROE changes 2025 EPS by about $0.28. Further, our financial assumptions for 2025 do not factor in the potential recovery of historical wildfire costs, which could be substantial. Lastly, I want to build on Pedro's earlier point about affordability and highlight yet another action SCE has taken to manage customer rates. Earlier this month, SCE reached a settlement agreement with TURN and Cal Advocates to move to a customer-funded wildfire self-insurance model. This builds on the customer funded self-insurance that was previously authorized in the 2021 GRC. Under the revised structure, SCE will be able to reduce its revenue requirement by an annualized $160 million, further driving down SCE's system average rate, which is already the lowest among major California IOUs, and we expect it will be the lowest for the foreseeable future. To conclude, EIX offers double-digit total return potential, consisting of our 5% to 7% EPS growth rate guidance and 4% dividend yield. SCE's rate base growth is the fundamental driver, as the utility invests in the safety and reliability of the grid, which increases in importance each year as economywide electrification accelerates. That concludes my remarks, and I'll hand it back to Sam.
Sam Ramraj:
Ted, please open the call for questions. As a reminder, we request you to limit yourself to one question and one follow-up, so everyone in line has the opportunity to ask questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners. Your line is now open.
Pedro Pizarro:
Good afternoon, Shar.
Maria Rigatti:
Hey, Shar.
Shar Pourreza:
Hey, good afternoon, Pedro. Hey, Maria. Pedro, just given the, I guess, emerging visibility on the wildfire cost recovery, I mean, I guess that's light at the end of the tunnel, if you will, do you still need to issue equity or equity content? I mean, assuming if you start getting cost recovery, you become over equitized, right, at that time, so you could find some efficiency in deferring issuance and potentially showing the agencies a glide path for credit metrics?
Maria Rigatti:
Hey, Shar, it's Maria. I think you know that when we've shared our equity needs before, we've really focused that on the underlying rate base needs and the capital needs of the company. So, we've addressed all of the liabilities already and our focus has been on getting to that point. So, really, we're talking about equity on a go-forward basis, that $1 billion, or $250 million on average over the next four years, that's about rate base growth. Yes, if we -- when we get recovery, as we go through those processes, I think that we'll continue to address how we're going to incorporate that into the capital structure. We obviously, will have some debt to retire at SCE as we get the dollars in the door. But I think we'll deal with all of that as we go forward.
Shar Pourreza:
Okay. Got it. So, more to come there. Okay. And then, just obviously since you're now seeing a 2% load growth starting in '23, I think from flattish levels, I guess, do you anticipate any increment investment needs that aren't currently in the GRC approved CapEx within sort of this planning horizon? I mean, could that sort of have an impact on rate base? And how do we sort of think about the recovery mechanisms would that be recovered under? Or do you need to file another GRC? Thanks.
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes. Thanks, Shar. Apologize, I jumped in there. There was a little blip on the phone line, so I thought you were done.
Shar Pourreza:
No, it's okay.
Pedro Pizarro:
Couple of pieces to this, and Steve Powell may want to add to this as well. We're certainly managing within the current '21 rate case. You saw that we have Track 4 application. We're waiting for approval of that. Key thing here though is, as we look through 2030, 2035, we see that growth earlier than we had expected. We will certainly be building that into the '25 to '28 GRC application that Steve's team is completing now and expecting to file in May. I think within that we believe this is manageable. Steve, anything you would add [from your own] (ph) perspective?
Steven Powell:
I'd just point out, Pedro, in terms of clarification around load growth, over the next 13 years, we do expect to see that load growth increase over time. It will start lower, so I wouldn't expect to see 2% starting next year. It will ramp up as the level of vehicle electrification as well as building begins to accelerate. And at some point, it begins to swamp the solar rooftop growth as well. So that will -- that won't really impact the next couple of years within our current rate case cycle. But Pedro, like you said, we're looking at hard for 2025 rate case to figure out what additional investments will be needed to support that growth.
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes, it's great, Steven. And sure, maybe more than you asked for, but I'll give you one other point here. I think it's really important and frankly exciting. This is not going to be necessarily smooth, right? We're going to see some frankly good surprises out there over time. That's going to bring some -- I'll use the term volatility. I don't mean it in a negative way, but just volatility in customer adoption. And particularly an example of that, we focus a lot on is, think about fleet electrification. If we get a big box retailer with a large truck depot that is installing or buying a fleet of heavy-duty electric vehicles, they may have not let us know about that yet. That's going to be a surprise at some point. We'll be able to manage that But I think one of the things you will see in the upcoming '25 GRC application is the team looking at getting -- proposing investments that will provide the team a little more flexibility in terms of being able to manage those good surprises in terms of earlier electrification or more concentrated electrification on one distribution circuit than we have experienced in the past. It's a very different day that's coming up ahead. It's a good thing, right, because it's how California will decarbonize, but it's going to come with some step changes as we go along, particularly when you think about some of the heavier-duty applications for electrification like larger trucks.
Maria Rigatti:
So maybe, Shar, just the main takeaway there is that in the next couple of years, we can fully manage within our existing GRC, but you will see this load growth fully reflected in our 2025 application.
Shar Pourreza:
Okay. This is perfect. Fantastic, guys. I appreciate it.
Pedro Pizarro:
Thanks, Shar.
Operator:
Next question in the queue is from Angie Storozynski. Your line is now open -- with Seaport.
Pedro Pizarro:
Hey, Angie.
Angie Storozynski:
Thank you. Hey, how are you?
Pedro Pizarro:
And how are you?
Angie Storozynski:
Okay. Good. So, first question, maybe at different angle. I actually looked at the equity needs for '23 and they seem relatively low given that you didn't issue all of the equity you needed for '22. So, is it a reflection of just some efficiencies on the capital -- on the cash flow side, and thus, you don't need to do the catch-up for '22? Or is it that you've managed to, I don't know, monetize some assets, buildings, you name it?
Maria Rigatti:
Hi, Angie. It's Maria. So, I think I'm going to start by just saying, we are managing to that 15% to 17% FFO to debt range. We have a real commitment to our investment-grade ratings. Having said that, we've told you before that we have about $1 billion -- up to about $1 billion of equity content need through [Technical Difficulty] '25, but that would flex depending on where we were in our capital program, et cetera. So, as we came into 2023, yes, we had deferred some of the equity content out of 2022 given the market conditions, but we took another good look at where we want to be in terms of our metrics, and this will satisfy that and allow us to continue to make that commitment to our investment-grade rating. So, as we move through the rest of the '21 through '25 cycle, we'll continue to take a look at where we are in the capital plan. But we're very comfortable with where we are today for our '23 financing plan.
Angie Storozynski:
Okay. And you didn't mention anything about your battery project. Could you give us a sense of the status of that project?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes, that's on track to be online by the summer. Steve, you want to give any more detail on that?
Steven Powell:
I'd just say, so as a reminder for everyone, the SCE signed agreement back in October of '21 with Ameresco for 537 megawatts. We've been working that project every since. Last year, it did run into supply chain and some other execution challenges. And we -- like Pedro said, we expect that that will be online for the summer. We fully expect still to spend about $1 billion in total on the projects. And with the project coming online [this year] (ph) though, we also are getting -- it will be eligible for about $230 million of tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act. And so that will go to the benefit of our customers.
Angie Storozynski:
Okay. And then, lastly and probably most importantly, so you are planning to accelerate the filing for the wildfire cost recovery, at least the first portion. I'm just wondering why is it coming earlier than expected. So, that's one. And number two is, so you're not deferring any interest associated with the financing of those wildfire claims, because you haven't had any decision from the CPUC. So, I'm just wondering, if you do get a decision or a settlement or at least a settlement in that first batch, is that enough for you to start deferring the interest expense associated with Woolsey?
Pedro Pizarro:
I think I'll take the first part and Maria can take the second part. I think what we said over the last several quarters' earnings calls is that we were targeting the first filing by the end of this year. And also, I think, we commented on how we were looking to do that as soon as possible, right, because we recognize that there's value in getting that certainty and getting that -- the first piece of cost recovery behind us. So, I'm not sure I would say that we accelerated the filing. Again, it's consistent with by the end of the year, but now that we have more clarity every quarter, we see that we have the ability to file in the third quarter. And so that's when we are going to get the filing out. Maria, you can cover the other part?
Maria Rigatti:
Yes. So Angie, as you correctly point out, we are not deferring the interest expense associated with the wildfire claims debt. And so that's running to the income statement. We are asking for -- or will ask for recovery when we file the application. And when we get recovery, then we will reverse that and you would recognize that in earnings. When we get the decision, we will look at what the precise languages is, et cetera, and see if we want to apply that to Woolsey or how that would set itself up as a precedent. So, we'll see what happens around that when we actually get the language of the decision on TKM.
Angie Storozynski:
Awesome. Thank you.
Pedro Pizarro:
Thanks, Angie.
Operator:
Next question is from Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research. Your line is open.
Steve Fleishman:
Yes. Hi, good afternoon.
Pedro Pizarro:
Hi, Steve.
Steve Fleishman:
You guys probably -- you probably knew this already, but as we were on this call, looks like Moody's may have upgraded your rating, so congrats on that.
Steve Fleishman:
Thank you.
Maria Rigatti:
So, first checkmark on our scorecards, do you?
Steve Fleishman:
Yes. But -- so on the -- I guess, just on the filing for recovery, could you talk about the expected timeline to get an answer from the CPC? And I think, there's -- isn't there like two decisions? There's first prudency and then determining the actual dollars part...
Maria Rigatti:
Yes. So...
Steve Fleishman:
...of the prudence process. Could you talk about both of those?
Maria Rigatti:
Sure. So, our intent when we filed the application is to request an 18-month schedule, that's consistent with how they handle rate setting sorts of applications. We are also going to ask that they consider both of those items that you just mentioned, both the prudency of our operations and the prudency of our settlement process or claim process simultaneously. What will happen after we file the application is that typically, there would be a 30-day window in which people could file comments, after which the commission would schedule a pre-hearing conference. And following a pre-hearing conference, they would issue their scoping memo. The scoping memo would then have their schedule, sort of their response to our requests and other intervener comments. So that's sort of thing we're looking at, and we'll know a lot more after that scoping memo is issued.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. Great. And then just on the -- I guess, with respect to the operational variances, so I think you've been able to offset in terms of your long-term growth rate, a lot of the interest rate increases through improvement in the operational variances, particularly out to '25. Could you just give a sense, better sense of what those are driving that? And like, since that's the GRC year, how does that play into the '25 GRC also? Yes, thanks.
Maria Rigatti:
Sure. And there's a lot of things in there and you can even see it in our 2023 guidance. We have actually a fairly similar range in '23 that we have in the 2025 EPS CAGR. So, what's in there? Big things that are in there are AFUDC earnings, that's a healthy chunk of operational variances. We also have regulatory applications that we have been submitting from time to time, actually pretty much every year at this point. And when those get -- when we get those decisions, some of those true-ups then go through the operational variances. Speaking specifically to 2025 and how do we manage through that since it's the first year of GRC cycle, there are things that become less aligned over the course of the GRC cycle. An example I often use is depreciation. So, you can get out of -- or you can get misaligned with what you're actually recognizing as depreciation versus what was authorized. When you get to the first year over GRC cycle, you can actually true those things back up and get more into a normal cadence. So, those are the sorts of things that we have embedded, whether it was '23 or last year '22 or the future '25.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. Thank you.
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes, thanks, Steve.
Operator:
The next question is from Ryan Levine with Citi. Your line is now open.
Ryan Levine:
Hi, everybody. Hoping to follow up on cost recovery application. In the prepared remarks in the presentation, you highlighted about $2 billion that would be the ask. How did you determine that amount? And what factors could cause some deviation from that request?
Pedro Pizarro:
Good question, Ryan. And I think the simple answer is, this is about the TKM case and that's separate from the Woolsey case. We have not before given you a sense of how that total amount was divided up between the two cases. Now, this gives you insight into the amount that's allocated or relevant to TKM. So simply, that said, it's just -- that's the accounting of what claims are which.
Maria Rigatti:
But it probably doesn't give you perfect insight quite yet, because we will continue to settle claims and we will continue to accrue interest and we will include a true-up mechanism in the application that we filed, so that we can address anything that we incur -- any cost we incur following the application.
Pedro Pizarro:
That's right.
Ryan Levine:
Between now and any filing in the third quarter, presumably, there's a lot of work that needs to be done, any factors that you care to share that could influence the more specific timing and the milestones to watch in the process?
Pedro Pizarro:
I think Maria covered nicely earlier, Ryan. Our expectation there will be proposing an 18-month schedule. I think we shared in past calls that the team has been working on these applications already for quite some time. So, it's not work that starts now, it's work that's been ongoing. And so, we'll have final details once we put the application out there.
Ryan Levine:
Okay. Thank you.
Pedro Pizarro:
Thanks, Ryan.
Operator:
The next question is from Gregg Orrill with UBS. Your line is open.
Pedro Pizarro:
Hey, Greg.
Gregg Orrill:
Yes, hi. Thank you. Can you talk about the Track 4 proceeding and sort of how that impacts your -- how that's going and how that impacts your ability to hit your financial goals? How we should think about it?
Maria Rigatti:
Sure. So, Track 4 is that stub year in our 2021 GRC case, so it addresses 2024 revenue requirement. We've gotten -- interveners have filed comments. I think we're going through the normal process. The schedule for that is to get a decision by the end of this year. So that's a very relevant data point for 2024. So that is sort of the normal process that we go through anytime there's a GRC or some component of the GRC outstanding. It is not something that is affecting 2025. So, if you recall, we'll be through this GRC cycle as we mentioned in response to Steve's question, and 2025 is the first year of the next GRC cycle and our 5% to 7% EPS CAGR from '21 through 2025 is really focused on that 2025 outcome.
Gregg Orrill:
And the final outcome would be expected to be somewhere between the interveners and some improvement on that in the final decision?
Maria Rigatti:
You're talking about Track 4?
Gregg Orrill:
Yes.
Maria Rigatti:
I think there is still some things we need to work through on Track 4. There is still procedural schedules and comments that are due. So, we'll work through that the balance of the year.
Gregg Orrill:
All right. Good luck.
Pedro Pizarro:
Hey, thanks, Gregg.
Operator:
Next question is from Nicholas Campanella with Credit Suisse. Your line is now open.
Nicholas Campanella:
Hey, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. And I wanted to ask just a follow-up on the claims, and I'm sorry if I missed it. But just for Woolsey, when would that actually be filed? I guess, would it be sometime after '25, after the 18-month process on the TKM? Or can you just explain that?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes. We haven't given new timing on that yet. We have commented in the past on how Woolsey happened around a year after TKM, so you'd expect that schedule to be sometime later than TKM. I don't think that we would necessarily need to wait for the TKM proceeding to be completed to file for Woolsey. So, just as we did with TKM when we have -- really we have a -- or substantially complete in terms of settlements, I think that would be the timing for a filing.
Nicholas Campanella:
Okay, that's helpful. I appreciate it. And on the earnings guidance, your confidence on '25 is very notable, and thanks for the walk to get there. I guess, just as we think about there's that $0.24 a drag with the debt balances affecting '23, presumably that's going get carried forward I would imagine to '24 as you potentially await for recovery and actions from the CPUC. Just how do you frame where you are within the 5% to 7% range in '24? Are you -- do you have a line of sight to be within it, or is it more just about getting there in '25? Thank you.
Maria Rigatti:
Well, fundamentally, '25 is the most important aspect of this conversation, right, because that's the target we put out there and that we're driving towards and we'll commit to. In terms of 2024 though, how do we think about that? I think obviously, we'll give guidance for 2024 on the Q4 call of next year -- this year, Q4 '23, but I still think about 2024 as rate base is a fundamental driver of growth. And there are things that we're going to find out in 2023 that are going to inform our 2024 guidance when we give it. So, some of the things we've already discussed today, the GRC Track 3 to Track 4 decision. We have a number of memo account filings that we've made and we'll see where -- the timing on those, for example. We're going to continue to execute on our financing plan. I want to be really clear. We've embedded sort of this higher interest rate environment in all the numbers at this point. So, I think I won't say to you definitively where interest rates will end up in 2025, but there is that already baked into it. We're also frankly going to continue to monitor the cost of capital mechanism. It's not necessary for us to get to our 5% to 7% EPS CAGR in 2025, but it is something that could impact 2024. So, we are doing all of those things as we prepare and move into 2024. And of course, the team here continues to lean in and work on all of the operational efficiencies that are so important to this question, but also to customer affordability.
Nicholas Campanella:
Thanks for that color, Maria. I really appreciate it. Thank you.
Pedro Pizarro:
Thanks, Nick. Take care.
Operator:
Next question is from David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
David Arcaro:
Hi, thanks so much for taking my questions. I was wondering maybe first following up on the financing outlook and the interest rate environment. We've seen a couple of your peers do some different types of debt securities recently, convertible-like debt securities that have offered lower interest rates. Wondering if there are any ideas like that, that you're exploring in terms of opportunities to lower the debt financing costs as you look at some of the upcoming refinancing and debt issuances?
Maria Rigatti:
Yes. I think the answer to that question is, we're always looking at opportunities to be as cost effective as possible. We'll have to monitor the market and see how all those other transactions go, whether it fits our situation, but absolutely looking for every opportunity like that, that we can.
David Arcaro:
Okay, got it. Thanks. And then, also following up on the operational variances, looking at the 2025 outlook, I'm wondering if you could give an indication as to what kind of portion of that increased versus the prior expectation? And are you able to give just how much of that is operational efficiencies within the overall bucket?
Maria Rigatti:
Yes. So, we haven't broken it out into a ton of detail in terms of operational efficiencies, because remember, operational efficiencies, there's a lot of work that goes on at SCE and at EIX. And so, like you have many, many line items that you're working through. But some of the broad thematic areas that we've looked -- that we're looking at relate to technology improvements and leveraging technology, it relates to work management and relates to procurement. So, there are a number of areas that I would say fall into the category of operational efficiencies. But as I mentioned earlier, the operational variances bucket also includes a lot of other things. It includes AFUDC. It includes sort of the realization of regulatory applications as we get into that time period. It includes the fact that we're going to realign some of the things that may have gotten a little bit misaligned over the course of a four-year GRC cycle like depreciation. So, there's all of those things that fall into the operational variances.
David Arcaro:
Okay, great. That's helpful color. I appreciate it. Thanks so much.
Maria Rigatti:
Thank you.
Pedro Pizarro:
Thanks so much.
Operator:
Our next question is from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America. Your line is open.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey, good afternoon, team. Thanks so much for the time. I appreciate it. Hope you guys are well. Hey, just coming back to the guidance here, right, '23, '25, we received a good amount of attention here. But just let me ask it this way, when you look at your Parent and Other, right, it's relatively flattish from '23 to '25, call it, like that $0.88 midpoint. Given the commentary thus far about the balance sheet and the focus on equity issuance and the fact that some of that included, right, the parent includes the dilutive effect, it kind of suggests that there is no incremental parent debt issuance or equity issued. Or if there is, there is some kind of positive offset, right, i.e., maybe some debt paydown from TKM or something like that. Just trying to understand the puts and takes in that Parent and Other line.
Maria Rigatti:
Yes. I think, Julien, at the parent, we do the same things that the utility does and look for cost efficiencies. And we think that there are a number of areas around operational efficiencies, around how we manage our work, et cetera, that will allow us to fall into the range that we've given in 2025. So, I think it's not that glamorous, but it's a lot of hard work getting cost down.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. Do we have any sense of how much is baked in there in terms of cost reductions through the course of the period, if you will? And also, in the '23 guidance, I think it was like a $0.14 CEMA. So, what is that true-up as well, just while we're on the subject of details?
Maria Rigatti:
Sure. So, we're working across a whole range of items to hit our operational efficiencies and frankly just our business effectiveness at the holding company. So, more to come on that as we work through those issues. In terms of the 2023 CEMA item that you're referring to, that relates to -- so CEMA is a Catastrophic Event Memo Account. So, we incurred costs a few years ago related to capital, et cetera, that we had to [Technical Difficulty] because there was a catastrophic event or a storm, a wildfire, et cetera, not related to any of the '17 or '18 events. And when that happens, we make an application for any incremental costs. And now that application, we believe, will come to fruition in this year and that will be recognized in our operational variances. It's very similar in -- we think it's analogous to the CSRP item that we flagged when we gave 2022 guidance.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. All right. Thank you, guys, very much. Have a great day.
Pedro Pizarro:
Thanks.
Maria Rigatti:
Thanks, Julien.
Operator:
And that was our last question. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Sam Ramraj.
Sam Ramraj:
Well, thank you for joining us. This concludes the conference call, and have a good rest of the day and stay safe. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good afternoon, and welcome to the Edison International Third Quarter 2022 Financial Teleconference. My name is Dexter, and I'll be your operator today. [Operator Instructions] Today's call is being recorded. I would like to now turn the call over to Mr. Sam Ramraj, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Ramraj, you may begin your conference.
Sam Ramraj :
Thank you, Dexter, and welcome, everyone. Our speakers today are President and Chief Executive Officer, Pedro Pizarro; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Maria Rigatti. Also on the call are other members of the management team. Materials supporting today's call are available at www.edisoninvestor.com. These include our Form 10-Q, prepared remarks from Pedro and Maria and the teleconference presentation. Tomorrow, we will distribute our regular business update presentation. During this call, we will make forward-looking statements about the outlook for Edison International and its subsidiaries. Actual results could differ materially from current expectations. Important factors that could cause different results are set forth in our SEC filings. Please read these carefully. The presentation includes certain outlook assumptions as well as reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure. During the question-and-answer session, please limit yourself to 1 question and 1 follow-up. I will now turn the call over to Pedro.
Pedro Pizarro :
Thank you, Sam. Edison International reported core earnings per share of $1.48 for the third quarter and $2.49 for the first 9 months of the year. Based on our year-to-date performance and outlook for the remainder of the year, we are narrowing our 2022 core EPS guidance range to $4.48 to $4.68 from our prior range of $4.40 to $4.70. We are fully committed to delivering our long-term EPS growth rate target of 5% to 7% for 2025. In my remarks, I will focus on 3 key messages. First, SCE's excellent progress reducing wildfire risk. Second, we have updated the 2017 and 2018 wildfire and mudslide events reserve. Third, I'll talk about the increasing alignment between California's clean energy actions and SCE's vision to lead the transformation of the electric power industry. SCE is making excellent progress in executing its wildfire mitigation plan. As I mentioned before, when we look across all 17,000 circuit miles of distribution lines in SCE's high fire risk area or HFRA, over 7,000 miles are already underground. And the utilities grid hardening measures are focused on the remaining approximately 10,000 miles that were above ground. SCE is rapidly deploying covered conductor and is on pace to complete 4,300 miles or 43% of its overhead miles in HFRA by year-end. As depicted on Page 3, SCE plans to continue hardening the grid through its next rate case cycle, which would result in about 8,400 overhead miles hardened. Additionally, SCE has continued to reduce the impact of PSPS. With the acceleration of grid hardening activities on frequently impacted PSB circuits this year, SCE anticipates reducing PSPS out exploration by over 44 million customer minutes of interruption. That's more than 17% compared to the last 2 years, assuming the same weather and fuel conditions. As analysts, investors, rating agencies and members of the CPUC have observed from visits to emergency operations center this year, SCE has made marked advancements in its wildfire mitigation and emergency preparedness capabilities. Additionally, we continue to share extensive data on SCE wildfire mitigation efforts on the Investor Relations website. Turning to the 2017 and 2018 wildfire and mudslide events. In the third quarter, SCE paid about $350 million towards settlement of claims. Driven by this significant new information obtained through the litigation process following the closing of the Woolsey Fire statute of limitations in May, and our thorough evaluation of such information. The utility increased the best estimate of total losses by $880 million to a total of $8.8 billion. As summarized on Page 4, I would like to share with you some additional information and background on the reasons for this large estimate revision. [indiscernible] solution is a long and challenging process. And we really appreciate your patience as SCE works through it in a prudent manner, which will ultimately support the utility's strong cost recovery applications. With the statute of limitations for Woolsey individual plaintiffs behind us, we now know the actual number of plaintiffs bringing claims in connection with that event. And we have obtained important additional information on the nature of the claims for many of these remaining plaintiffs though still not for all of them. To give you more visibility into the process. We now have more information regarding the type of claim a plaintiff has. For example, whether a plaintive has a claim for smoke and ash damage or damaged property or entire property loss or for a business. Based on now having a defined number of claimants and more clarity on the nature of the respective claims, the reserve was adjusted to reflect our experience to date settling similar types of claims including higher-than-expected costs to settle several types of those claims. The continued progress settling claims enables us to move further along in resolving these historical 2017 and 2018 events. I want to be clear that we still expect SCE to file the application for TKM cost recovery by late 2023 and to seek full CPUC cost recovery of claims payments excluding, of course, amounts recoverable from insurance or FERC forgone under the agreement with the Safety Enforcement Division. I will also note that our financial assumptions for 2025 and beyond do not factor in any potential upside from this cost recovery application. My final comments focus on California's clean energy actions and Edison International's vision to lead the electric utility industry through the clean energy transition. In August, the California Air Resources Board, or CARB, approved the rule requiring 100% of new cars sold in California to the zero emission vehicles by 2035. The regulation codifies the light-duty vehicle goals set out in an executive order earlier this year. In September, CARB voted to ban the sale of new gas furnaces and water heaters beginning in 2030. This built on the CPUC's unanimous decision a week earlier to eliminate subsidies for new natural gas hookups beginning July 2023. At the federal level, the administration is proceeding with multiple implementation actions by The Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill, the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS Act. Just this week, the U.S. EPA announced the first $965 million tranche of funding for the electric school bus program authorized by the infrastructure built with about $35 million supporting school districts in SCE's area. We are pleased to see this state and federal support for electrification, which is also consistent with our vision laid out in our Pathway 2045 white paper. SCE is a leader in electrification with the country's largest suite of transportation electrification programs led by an investor-owned utility, which benefit SCE in a differentiated manner. Electric vehicle adoption continues to accelerate here in California. Over the last 3 months, EVs accounted for roughly 20% of new car sales in California. SCE service area has about 400,000 of the 3 million EVs in the country. EV charging accounts for over 2.5 million megawatt hours or about of 3% SCE's projected 2022 retail sales. However, by 2045, this could grow to about 50 million-megawatt hours. Meanwhile, we are awaiting CPUC review of SCE's $677 million building electrification application which will help catalyze this market in tandem with California's plans to include around $1 billion in state budgets over the next 5 years. We are excited about working in partnership with state and federal governments and with other stakeholders including the communities we serve to advance policies that rapidly cut greenhouse gas emissions. With that, Maria will provide her financial report.
Maria Rigatti :
Thanks, Pedro, and good afternoon. In my comments today, I will highlight that we had strong third quarter results and have narrowed our 2022 EPS guidance range to $4.48 to $4.68. Before I move to that, there are 3 additional takeaways for today's call. First, we remain committed to delivering on our 5% to 7% growth target through 2025. Second, our near-term maturities are manageable. Finally, SCE's current operational excellence program, which we call Catalyst, is up to a strong start, and we have high expectations for the program. Let's move to third quarter results, as shown on Page 5. Edison International reported core earnings of $1.48 per share. Recall that in the third quarter 2021, SCE received its 2021 GRC final decision and recorded a $0.35 true-up. This results in an unfavorable year-over-year comparison for this quarter. I will highlight 2 additional key variances. SCE's earnings were driven by an increase in CPUC-related revenue in 2022 due to the GRC escalation mechanism and previously unrecognized return related to the customer service replatform project final decision. Moving to Page 6. SCE's capital forecast has been updated slightly, primarily to reflect the timing of the spending related to the utility-owned storage project. The project is now expected to be online before summer 2023 and, consequently, some of the capital spending has shifted to 2023. As shown on Page 7, our capital forecast continues to result in projected rate base growth of 7% to 9% from 2021 to 2025. This forecast incorporates SCE's current view of the request to be made in the 2025 GRC and other applications. With respect to 2022 guidance, as shown on Page 8, we are narrowing our 2022 core EPS guidance range to $4.48 to $4.68 from $4.40 to $4.70. Based on our year-to-date performance and outlook for the rest of the year, we are confident we will deliver results with narrowed range. I would now like to provide a brief update on our 2022 financing plan as outlined on Page 9. We continue to expect to refinance the last $300 million of parent debt maturing this year with new debt. Recall that we completed a $400 million refinancing in August. Combined, these will complete the refinancing of $700 million of parent debt. On the equity side, we expect that internal programs will generate about $100 million of our 2022 need of $300 million to $400 million of equity content. In April, we entered into a $600 million term loan maturing in April 2023, which provides execution timing flexibility for the equity content we identified in our original guidance. If we defer into 2023, we will incorporate any remaining amount into the 2023 EIX financing plan. All in all, we will share our 2023 financing plan on our Q4 earnings call. Turning to the current interest rate environment, I would like to frame the company's interest rate exposure that factors into our 2025 EPS guidance and address how we plan to mitigate the impact from higher interest rates. Page 10 shows Edison's debt maturities over the next 5 years. There are 3 categories to consider. The first category is the debt that funds 2017 and '18 wildfire and mudslide claims resolution. Pedro and I have been clear and consistent that SCE plans to apply for full cost recovery of eligible losses. SCE's cost recovery application will also include the interest on the debt that funds the claims payments. None of this potential upside is built into our financial forecast. The second category is SCE operational debt. The interest rate exposure is minimal as we updated the estimated cost of debt and preferred in September as part of our 2023 caused capital application. The third category is EIX parent debt. We are currently forecasting the incremental cost of debt at approximately 6.1%. To the extent rates go higher over the next several years, we have headwinds to manage. Across the organization, we are always looking for operational efficiencies underpinned by a continuous improvement mindset. Over multiple rate case cycles, the utility has a distinguished track record of implementing operational excellent initiatives focused on enterprise-wide efforts to improve performance and safety, reliability, affordability, customer experience and quality. This has also enabled SCE to have the lowest system average rate among California IOUs. In the current program, catalyst, the portfolio includes over 600 employee-driven ideas with capital efficiency and O&M benefits. These ideas and SCE's operations and major themes include work planning, procurement and technology as shown on Page 11. The expected benefits should aggressively increase as we accelerate implementation through 2024, further benefiting affordability for SCE's customers. Additionally, we evaluate one-off opportunities. For instance, we have been evaluating our real estate portfolio for efficiencies. Reducing our footprint and managing the facilities costs will benefit customers in the longer term. We have high expectations for the Catalyst program and the ability to deliver value for customers. We expect to identify additional opportunities in the core areas of safety, reliability, affordability and quality as part of a multiyear program. We look forward to sharing success stories from the front line as we go along. Moving to Page 12. We have provided you with our long-term EPS guidance rooted in the significant investment opportunities aligned with our objectives of decarbonization and electrification. In this regard, I will emphasize 2 key points. First, we have incorporated the current interest rate environment and updated other assumptions. Second, we have identified tailwinds and headwinds that may drive variability around these ranges and provided sensitivities where applicable. As you can see from individual details on the page, we believe that the combination of drivers and strong execution will deliver the 5% to 7% growth. Let me highlight a few areas. One is operational variances, which include the catalyst work that I've described among other items. Also, I would like to point out that embedded in our guidance is SCE's current ROE of 10.3%. In the 2023 proceeding, SCE has requested an ROE of 10.53%, which is strongly supported by SCE's analysis and the current interest rate environment. The 2023 proceeding also includes resetting the benchmark for the cost of capital mechanism to about 4.4%. If the bond index rates exceed the 100 basis point deadband, the mechanism would trigger, which in turn would result in updating the cost of debt and adjusting the ROE starting with the following year. For sensitivity analysis, we expect each 10 basis points of ROE changes EPS by about $0.05 in 2025. Additionally, the range around the parent expense we've shown you in the past also incorporates a range of equity content needs, up to $250 million per year on average, and the amount will vary with rate base growth. To conclude, we are reiterating our 5% to 7% EPS growth rate guidance from 2021 through 2025. My management team and I are fully committed to delivering on this target. That concludes my remarks. Sam?
Sam Ramraj :
Dexter, please open the call for questions. As a reminder, we request you to limit yourself to 1 question and 1 follow-up, so everyone in line has the opportunity to ask questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Shar Pourreza, Guggenheim Partners.
Shar Pourreza:
Wanted to just start off on the legacy claims disclosures. Obviously, the estimates going up to 8.8%. What are you currently embedding for financing needs associated with the increase in the overall liability? And as you guys are reiterating the cost recovery process could be an upside to the current financial plan. I guess, what's a good way of looking at the potential range of scenarios and how and when you would disclose any potential benefits?
Pedro Pizarro:
Let me start with the last part of your question, Shar, and then turn to Maria for the financing things. But just to reiterate some of my comments, we want to be crystal clear that we plan to and expect to have SCE recover full cost recovery other than for the amounts that are already being expected to be recurred from or excluded in the SED settlement. We -- as you've noted, have not taken any sort of regulatory asset for those. So we leave it to investors to develop your own expectations. But certainly, we expect that we'll have a very strong case for cost recovery. We'll go through the regulatory process. We cannot guarantee results under the GAAP precedent of the San Diego Gas & Electric position where don't feel like we're able or adapt to claim a regulatory asset. But we think we're going to have a strong case for prudency. And so any recovery amounts or upside relative to the base numbers we provided here. Maria, do you want to talk about the financing assumptions?
Maria Rigatti :
Sure. So Shar, just to reiterate, we don't have anything built into our 5% to 7% EPS CAGR through 2025 related to a cure on this. But rather, we've actually embedded all of the liability beyond the insurance recovery, et cetera, that we have. We've embedded that in basically the SCE costs excluded from authorized. So the drag is in there. we've updated the drag includes the update to the revision -- the liabilities that we did this quarter. And we've assumed about a 5.3% cost of financing, which corresponds to sort of where the forward curve looks today, and we're assuming sort of a 5-year tenure on that debt. We will, of course, be as efficient as possible as we go out and finance it -- so as the market reasserts itself and you see a shorter-term debt looking cheaper, we might decide to do some of that as well. But right now, that's what we're embedding. We're embedding 5-year tenure is based on a current forward curve.
Shar Pourreza:
Got it. And then just 1 last thing on the financing side. Could you delay beyond '23? And obviously, you guys have some generating assets and in rate base. One of your peers is obviously engaged in a process to split and sell equity for efficient financing. Could you envision something very similar or not? You have, I think, a little bit over 4 gigs?
Maria Rigatti :
Yes. So I would say, as part of the 5% to 7% CAGR, we're assuming that we execute our financing plans, I'll say, in the normal course. So what we announced earlier this year, but we've just created additional runway to push that off into next year. We're always looking at opportunities. I think obviously, we'll be tracking the developments that are happening in other parts of the state, looking at the regulatory outcomes, et cetera. We're also looking at other opportunities. We're always looking through our portfolio for assets that could provide a more efficient form of financing, but every company has a different portfolio. So we'll have to just keep looking.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Greg -- Steve Fleishman, Wolfe Research.
Steve Fleishman:
So I think just going to the claims increase, I think your percent resolved actually went down. And so could you just explain, is that just because you're now assuming just a bigger total amount?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes, that's simple math, Steve. Yes.
Maria Rigatti :
We resolved about $350 million claims this quarter. So we're still making progress on the claims, but it's just the math of the increase versus the resolutions.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. Is there any other statute of limitations left to pit that you haven't yet?
Pedro Pizarro:
No, there is not.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. And just in terms of just the -- so how are the rating agencies trading the clams here? And is there any risk of more equity needed to support the further increase in claims?
Maria Rigatti :
So the rating agencies typically treat whether we've actually sent the dollars yet or we've just reported the reserve or the liability, they treat that as either actual debt. We've we financed it or imputed debt if we haven't yet financed it. So that is part of the calculation. So it will be embedded. We do not need to change our financing plan to address this. We've been, as you know, quite interested in having our metrics improve. And so we've built up a little cushion. This is leading to the cushion over the next several years now.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. And I mean, this might be a statement of the obvious, but kind of this just seems kind of like a bit manning. What's happening here in terms of this keep increasing and then just kind of having to wait and wait and wait for recovery. Is there anything else that can be done or any way to kind of further accelerate this. So it's just kind of not just doesn't continue as it is. for several years until we get an answer on any recovery? Or could you just -- is there any other options the company can pursue to move this quicker?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes. Steve, I appreciate the question, and I know it's a lot of investor minds. We have all hands on deck on this. And the reality is that we passed a major milestone in terms of information content with the closing of the Woolsey statute of limitations period. As I said in my prepared remarks, we now actually know the number of claimants, which is not something that we knew until we were able to get past that closer date and be able to evaluate the data. We said all along that we work hard to make sure we are providing investors the best estimate under GAAP, but we recognize that there's things that can change the best estimate as we proceed along I'm not aware of something -- the magic tool that we could use to somehow accelerate this other than where our legal team is working expeditiously with the thousands of remaining plaintiffs to get through that process. As you might recall from prior quarters, we have worked successfully to set up processes or having that be as expedited as possible with support from the respective courts. And so we will continue at it. I know there's some element of frustration with this for all of us but it is the reality of having the mass litigation case with thousands of individual plans still remaining in the balance sheet.
Maria Rigatti :
And Steve, maybe I'll just add one more thing. We do plan on filing for our first application recovery by late 2023. The change in the reserve has not impacted that schedule.
Steve Fleishman:
And just one more clarification on that filing. Of the -- could you give us some sense roughly of the kind of amount that's available for recovery, how much that filing would capture as a percent of that? Is it half of it? Is it 90% of it? Is it 20% of it?
Maria Rigatti :
Yes. Steve, I think because we're still in the middle of the settlement process and the litigation process, we probably don't want to break it out in too much detail, but obviously, it's a substantial amount.
Pedro Pizarro:
But to be clear, Maria, and helping out upon misunderstanding, Steve, Steve, we plan to request for recovery of all allowable amounts. So the only amount that we would not be asking for recovery for are the amounts that we've recovered already through insurance, the amounts that will recover from FERC or we expect to recover from FERC and the amounts that we agreed in the settlement with the safety enforcement division to exclude from cost recovery. So that leaves the vast bulk of the reserve is we are planning to go seek for recovery of all of that.
Steve Fleishman:
In this filing in late '23?
Pedro Pizarro:
Between the combined filings. So again, remember, this filing in 2023 will be for the 2017 events, the TKM events, and then that will follow later with our filing for the 2018 events when '18 happened a year after 2017. So it's natural that those would not land at the finish line at the same time. And I think what Maria was referring to is we have not broken out for investors what portion is TKM versus what portion is Woolsey. We've shown you a combined number. We are in active litigation, and that's just -- we can always finding the balance point here between providing sufficient information for our investors, while recognizing we're in active litigation, so making sure that we're not providing excessive information that could end up impairing our ability to defend our customers in the litigation poses.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Gregg Orrill of UBS.
Gregg Orrill:
I think Maria made a comment about the real estate portfolio or management of and an optimization there. What were you referring to?
Maria Rigatti :
So Gregg, I think that, that real estate portfolio optimization is really about reducing the size of our footprint. Like many companies, we're returning to the office or have returned to the office in a different mode. So we're looking at places to consolidate and reduce our real estate footprint. I'd say that has the biggest impact on customer costs over time as we get more efficient with the use of our facilities.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jeremy Tonet, JPMorgan.
Rich Sunderland:
Rich Sunderland on for Jeremy, but thank you for the time today. I just wanted to start on the operational variances. I think first and foremost, that $0.80 to $0.95 EIX in other. That was unchanged from 2Q. Curious if you were already embedding the current interest rate assumptions in there if there are kind of other offsets you've adjusted over the quarter here?
Maria Rigatti :
Yes. So we did update the financing assumptions there. So now at the parent company, we are assuming that the embedded cost is about 6.1%. Like the rest of the company, at the parent, we have opportunities for both operational and performance efficiencies. And so we're targeting some of those to help offset the increase in rates. So it's a blend of things that have happened this quarter.
Rich Sunderland:
Understood. I guess at a high level on these variances, are these recurring or I guess, thinking about that walk, you mentioned 2024, but then the new GRC cycle in '25, do they reset in 25, whatever you've accomplished in '24.
Maria Rigatti :
It's a variety. So some things will certainly -- we will accomplish some efficiencies over the course of the next few years, and that will reset in the 2025 GRC. There's also things where you get misaligned over the course of a GRC. And so when we the spend back in line with authorized or vice versa, authorized back in line with the spend, we'd actually see a reduction of maybe some drag that we've been experiencing. So I think across the different variances, there's just a variety of different inputs. And so other things in that line, AFUDC, we have operational efficiencies. We have some other things where we'll have a catch up with the GRC. So a have a number of things.
Rich Sunderland:
Maybe I'll just squeeze in one last one. Any rough breakdown on what the sort of ongoing are versus the resets?
Maria Rigatti :
It changes through the year because the other thing that impacts that line item is also the timing of regulatory approvals. So you saw that earlier this year, we had highlighted getting an approval on the customer service replatform project and said that was a big timing difference potentially between this year and next year. We've gotten a final decision now. And so it's in 2022. You'll see some of those things over the course of the next few years, the exact timing of when they hit does -- is impacted by when we file the application as well. So it's a little bit of a mix from year-to-year.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Nick Campanella, Credit Suisse.
Nick Campanella:
I just wanted to ask kind of when you think about the capital that needs to be deployed for your decarbonization plan, the coverage conductor plan? And then also the just the fact that fuel lines have come up and we're in just a greater inflationary environment here. And then you kind of layer on the recovery of the wildfires. Just overall confidence level and just being able to kind of maintain customer rates where they are and kind of execute on this plan?
PedroPizarro:
Yes. Let me start with that one, and it's a great question. So -- let me start at the end. This is where the view that we have of Pathway 2045 is so important because we need to remember that this decarbonization pathway fortunately is one that we believe would lower customers' total energy costs. There will be upward pressure over the next couple of decades on electric rates as we make the investments that are needed to decarbonized to electrify a lot of the economy, the lead customer site investments that they'll need to be making in end-use technologies. That's where we're seeing the support from things like the inflation Reduction Act is so helpful. But the punch line or one of the punch line from Path 2045 was that because of the greater efficiency of the electric technologies, we expect the average customer in 2045 to be spending 1/3 less than they do today on their total energy bill. That's also why if you see the business update that we'll publish tomorrow and similarly the 1 that we did last quarter, we have started including in there a chart that shows you the share of wallet of our customers compared to customers in other states, what share of wallet is going across all energy uses. Because you really need to look at this as not just electric, but the entire pie of electric was natural gas -- gasoline. That's what ultimately impacts the wallet and that you're going to have some realignments in spending going from gasoline, gas towards electric -- so you can just be looking at the electric side alone, you need to look at the total picture. So that's the long-term view. In the short term, though, I think the work that Maria mentioned around catalyst builds on the work that SE has been doing for over a decade and looking at how we control the parts that we can control in our cost structures to minimize rate impacts to if we make more room for the capital that's needed every dollar that you see on O&M can save around -- or can allow us to invest around $7 in capital while keeping rates constant. And so the final data point I'll give you there is that we're proud of the record there because it's led to SCE's rates being significantly lower than those of the electric rates of PG&A and Santo gas and electric. So we've been working on this for a while. We'll continue to work at it. But I think it's a combination of working on the near-term things we can control and also communicating the long-term view that these electric side items are important to not only decarbonize but to lower total energy cost for the customer. Maria, anything you would add?
Maria Rigatti :
Yes. Maybe Nick, just maybe one more thing. I think Pedro has really focused both on the long term and the near term and recognizing that there are things that we want to work on over the near term to help bridge to that longer term. I think it's really interesting, too, from a commission perspective that they recognize the need for affordability. They recognize the work that people need to do. And our recent cost of capital proposed decision alternate proposed decision. A lot of the interveners actually focused a lot on affordability as the reason why the trigger mechanism should be permitted to trigger. And when the PD and the APD came out, the commission recognized that it's allowed to trigger that rates would actually go down, things were dollars already refunded to customers. But they also recognize that if you don't set the ROE at an appropriate level that reflects the utilities' risk. It will just make it that much harder to attract capital. So I think that you're seeing a balanced approach to affordability in California.
Nick Campanella:
That's helpful. And definitely noted the strong confidence in the long-term outlook and the opportunities you're kind of searching for to deliver this 5% to 7% that you're working on to deliver this 5% to 7% rate you narrowed the '22 midpoint. Just how do we kind of think about '23 in the context of this 5% to 7% range and just any drivers that are explicit into the '23 that are notable today?
Maria Rigatti :
So we'll obviously give our guidance on our 2023 guidance on our Q4 call. We've said before 5% to 7% from the midpoint of our 2021 guidance through 2025. There are some nonlinear years in there, you can imagine. But we are focused on delivering that value over the longer term.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Bank of America.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Thanks, team, for the time. I appreciate it. So maybe just stepping in when Nick left off here, just to make sure I heard this right. As you think about '23 relative to the core of the outlook through '25, is it fair to say that there's sort of a nonlinear element to getting to that 5% to 7%, i.e., near-term pressures with respect to the refinancing, et cetera, but ultimately, between the cost savings that you've identified and latitude on timing of equity that you can get to that '25 outlook in kind of a nonlinear way?
Maria Rigatti :
Yes. I think when I was with Nick, I did mention that it was nonlinear. So -- and we expect that because as you move through time, you're building up more efficiencies and the like. Obviously, as we're moving through time, we're able to put lean in our programs even more effectively. So I think that, that is true. There is also, as I mentioned, speaking to someone earlier on the call, we also have regulatory proceedings that we are very focused on so that we can deliver on those decisions at the appropriate time as well. And so that is part of the mix to Julian. So I think it definitely is all part of the mix of getting to that 5% to 7% EPS CAGR by 2025.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Excellent. And then just to clarify, I think just going back to Rich's question on the 85 to 95 by '25 here. Can you elaborate a little bit on the lower total equity content issued? Is that basically pushing out the time line in the 26 plus the total equity? Or is there a way to actually eliminate equity from the plan altogether. I just want to clarify, because you alluded before to multiple moving pieces and how you get there, although in the slide you specifically called this one out.
Maria Rigatti :
Yes. So in that range for parent and other, because that's where we're incorporating all the dilution. Obviously, with the lower end of the capital range, we would need less equity. That's been part of the if you go back to when we first started to talk about the plan through 2025, we talked about $250 million per year on average but that get at the higher end of that range if you're at the higher end of the capital range. So that's what that variability is as well as our ability to various operational variances, too.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Right. But the core point there being that you could actually structurally bring down equity content potentially depending on what happens?
Maria Rigatti :
Yes.
Operator:
That was our last question. I will now turn the call back to Mr. Sam Ramraj.
Sam Ramraj :
Well, thank you for joining us today. This concludes the conference call. Have a good rest of the day and stay safe. You may now disconnect.
Sam Ramraj:
Thank you, Michelle, and welcome, everyone. Our speakers today are President and Chief Executive Officer, Pedro Pizarro; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Maria Rigatti. Also on the call are other members of the management team. Materials supporting today's call are available at www.edisoninvestor.com. These include our Form 10-Q, prepared remarks from Pedro and Maria, and the teleconference presentation. Tomorrow, we will distribute our regular business update presentation. During the call, we'll make forward-looking statements about the outlook for Edison International and its subsidiaries. Actual results could differ materially from current expectations. Important factors that could cause different results are set forth in our SEC filings. Please read these carefully. The presentation includes certain outlook assumptions as well as reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure. During the question-and-answer session, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. I will now turn the call over to Pedro.
Pedro Pizarro:
Well, thanks a lot, Sam, and good afternoon, everyone. Edison International reported core earnings per share of $0.94 compared to $0.94 a year ago. Based on our year-to-date, performance and outlook for the remainder of the year, we are reaffirming our 2022 core EPS guidance range of $4.40 to $4.70. I also want to emphasize that we remain absolutely fully confident in our long-term EPS growth target of 5% to 7% through 2025. Maria will discuss her financial performance in her remarks. I would like to begin with an update on the tremendous progress that SCE has made in wildfire mitigation. In preparing for this year's peak wildfire season, SCE has a higher level of confidence and its ability to mitigate wildfires associated with its equipment. During the quarter, SCE achieved a significant grid hardening milestone. It has now replaced over 3,500 circuit miles of bear wire with covered conductor in just over three and a half years. SCE expects to have covered approximately 40% of its overhead distribution power lines in high fire risk areas, or HFRA by the end of 2022. In many locations throughout SCE service area, covered conductor is the primary grid hardening tool. Since it balances risk reduction cost and timely execution, SCE plans to continue its current pace of installing about 1,200 miles per year of covered conductor for the next couple of years. I am pleased with the utilities execution of this program, which has and will continue to substantially improve safety for customers. SCE has achieved the majority of wildfire risk reduction through covered conductor and other system, hardening measures, vegetation management, and equipment inspections. Public safety power shutoffs or PSPS provide additional risk reduction that is critical during extreme weather and fuel conditions. SCE also continues to implement cutting edge technologies to mitigate against high impact wildfires. For example, the utility is leveraging machine learning to improve the accuracy of wind speed forecasts at around 500 SCE weather station locations. And this will help better predict which areas may reach or exceed PSPS thresholds. The state of California continues to allocate substantial funding in support of forest resiliency and fire suppression, including wildfires crews and aerial resources. SCE is also supporting the readiness and response efforts of our local fire agencies. For the fourth consecutive year, SCE is providing aerial suppression resources to local fire agencies to help quickly extinguish wildfires when they do start. SCE is contributing $18 million to lease the quick reaction force of water and retardant dropping tankers to Orange Los Angeles and Ventura County Fire agencies. The QRF's most critical feature is that it can continue to hover fill and make retardant drops at night, making it the world's first fully electoral aerial task force. In addition, SCE's fire camera network provides visibility to growing wildfires for fire agencies and the utility continues to explore adding artificial intelligence technology and new data sources that can detect and confirm new ignitions. Before I leave this topic, I would like to remind investors that we are hosting an in-person meeting on August 18 at SCE's Emergency Operations Center and Energy Education Center. Our leadership team and I look forward to discussing ongoing wildfire mitigation activities and SCE's opportunities in California's clean energy transition. So folks coming down. All right. Last week, SCE received a final decision from the Office of Energy Infrastructure Safety, approving its 2022 wildfire mitigation plan update. This is a prerequisite to submit the annual safety certification request which allows SCE to benefit from the presumption of prudency and the liability cap under AB 1054. This decision recognized the progress SCE has made in mitigating wildfire risk and increasing the overall maturity of its wildfire mitigation portfolio and strategies. Turning to wildfire-related settlements. We are pleased with SCE's progress in further resolving 2017 and 2018 wildfire and mudslides events claims. In the second quarter, SCE resolved approximately $400 million of claims. In total, the utility has resolved nearly 90% of its best estimate of expected losses and continues to make steady progress in resolving remaining claims. SCE is well on its way to reaching substantial resolution of claims in the TKM matter and remains on track to file the first application for cost recovery by late 2023. I would like to be really clear that SCE currently expects to seek full CPUC cost recovery of claims payments, excluding amounts recoverable from insurance or FERC or foregone under the agreement with the Safety Enforcement Division. We will keep you updated on our progress on this front. Shifting topics, I would like to briefly address a lawsuit brought by two former employees of Southern California Edison. As some of you may be aware, a jury award substantial damages to the plaintiffs. We do not believe that the jury’s decision was consistent with facts and the law, and it certainly does not reflect who we are or what we stand for. But rather than engage in a protracted legal challenge, we reached the settlement in July, for which we took a net after-tax charge of $16 million. Edison International and SCE did not admit liability or fault as part of the settlement. Okay. Most of my comments so far covered a lot about wildfire risk mitigation, which is a core component in adapting to climate change. I also want to emphasize our continuing focus on sustainability because this underlies our company strategy. We recently published our annual sustainability report, which details 2021 achievements. These are covered on Pages 5 and 6. Let me highlight especially that SCE has the lowest system average rate among the large California IOUs and that's primarily due to more than a decade of committed focus on operational excellence and cost management. Further, as you see on Page 7, the total energy burden in 2021, that is the total cost of electricity, natural gas and gasoline relative to median household income or customers in SCE service area was below the median for customers in other states across the country. We see the potential for that to continue to decline with increasing levels of electrification. Our Pathway 2045 analysis shows that the greater efficiency of electric motors and appliances will reduce customers' total costs across all energy commodities by one-third by 2045. Well, let me conclude by saying that Edison International is a nationally recognized leader in the clean energy transition. In alignment with climate actions planned by the state of California, as we announced last year, our goal is to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions across Scopes 1, 2 and 3 by '45 and that will cover the power that SCE delivers to customers as well as Edison International's enterprise-wide operations, including supply chain. With that, let me turn it over to Maria for her financial report.
Maria Rigatti:
Thanks, Pedro, and good afternoon, everyone. Edison International reported core earnings of $0.94 per share for the second quarter. Core EPS at SCE increased year-over-year, primarily due to the adoption of the 2021 GRC final decision in the third quarter of 2021, partially offset by higher O&M expenses. At EIX Parent and other, the core loss was $0.05 higher in the second quarter. This was primarily due to higher preferred dividends and unrealized losses on investments in the second quarter of 2022 and compared to unrealized gains recognized in the same period last year. On Page 8, you can see SCE's key second quarter EPS drivers on the right-hand side, and I'll highlight a few. Authorized revenue from the 2021 GRC was higher by $0.34 for two reasons. First, the escalation mechanism for 2022 contributed $0.18 for the variance. Second, because SCE did not have a GRC final decision in the second quarter of last year, it was recording revenue at 2020 levels. This timing difference contributed $0.16 to year-over-year Q2 revenue growth. Other CTC revenue was $0.26 higher, primarily related to the approval of GRC Track 3. With this approval, SCE recognized revenue for costs previously deferred to memo accounts because the costs were also recognized there was no net earnings impact from this revenue growth. The remaining O&M variance for this quarter was primarily driven by the timing of wildfire mitigation activity expense recognition. Moving to Page 9. SCE's capital forecast is unchanged from last quarter, when we reflected the capital expenditures SCE requested in Track 4 of its GRC. During the second quarter, SCE submitted its Track 4 request, which covers funding for 2024, the third attrition year of SCE's 2021 GRC. In addition to requesting a revenue increase driven by the GRC attrition mechanism and inflation, SCE proposed deploying another 1,200 miles of covered conductor, which would bring the utility to a total of about 6,500 miles installed by the end of 2024 or about two-thirds of its overhead distribution miles in high fire risk areas. As shown on Page 10, our capital forecast continues to result in projected rate base growth of 7% to 9% from 2021 to 2025. This forecast incorporates SCE's current view of the request to be made in the 2025 GRC and other applications. We see strong potential for SCE to continue deploying capital and achieving 7% to 9% rate base growth through 2025. Before turning to guidance, I would like to share a couple of positive developments in the quarter. First, SCE recently completed its annual wildfire insurance negotiations for policies that run from July 2022 through June 2023. In view of the measures SCE has implemented to reduce wildfire risk, the company's insurance carriers have further reduced premiums this year. Second, during the quarter, both Moody's and Fitch affirmed EIX and SCE's credit rating and raised their outlook to positive from stable. Both of these positive outlook changes were driven by recognition of the utility's significant progress addressing wildfire risk combined with the constructive AB 1054 framework. Turning to guidance. Pages 11 and 12 show our 2022 guidance and the key assumptions for modeling purposes. We are reaffirming our 2022 core EPS guidance range of $4.40 to $4.70. We are awaiting resolution and whether the cost of capital will remain unchanged for 2022. And after receiving a CPUC final decision, we will provide an update on guidance to incorporate any changes and our outlook for the rest of the year. In the 2023 cost of capital proceeding, the administrative law judge recently issued a scoping ruling with two positive components that I'd like to point out. First, the proceeding schedule calls for a proposed decision to be issued in mid-November, which could allow for a final decision to be made by year-end. Second, consistent with SCE's request and past proceedings, the schedule calls for updating the cost of debt and preferred in September, which will allow SCE to reflect more up-to-date interest rate forecast. SCE has made a strong case for its requested ROE of 10.53%, and we will incorporate the final decision in our 2023 earnings guidance, which we will introduce on our Q4 earnings call. At that time, we will also update you on our long-term EPS growth rate target. We remain confident in our ability to achieve EPS growth of 5% to 7% from 2021 to 2025, and which results in a 2025 EPS range of $5.50 to $5.90. I would now like to provide a brief update on our 2022 financing plan shown on Page 13. Our overall plan remains consistent with what we shared with you previously. In April, the parent borrowed $600 million under a term loan agreement, which matures in 2023. This transaction provides flexibility for issuing the previously disclosed debt and equity content securities later this year or in 2023. We will continue to monitor market conditions to optimize our capital structure, which, as we have said in the past, issuance, preferred equity or common equity to the use of internal and at-the-market program. Our prior three-year ATM program expired earlier this year, and we plan to establish a replacement program in the coming weeks. Let me conclude by building on Pedro's earlier comments on sustainability. I will emphasize the strong alignment between the strategy and drivers of the EIX business and the clean energy transition that is underway. Since publishing the sustainable financing framework last June, SCE has issued $2.1 billion of sustainability bonds under that framework with strong demand from investors recognizing the environmental and social benefits related to projects funded by these bonds. Our large capital investment plan focused on the grid provides ample opportunity for continued issuance of securities under this framework, which is aligned with the company's sustainability-oriented strategy and vision. That concludes my remarks, so we can go to questions.
Sam Ramraj:
Michelle, please open the call for questions. [Operator Instructions]
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Shahriar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners. Your line is open sir.
Shahriar Pourreza:
So Pedro, just in terms of the legacy liabilities and the settlement process, you guys have the end of '23 as a target for recovery filing. But I wanted to get a little bit more clarity on what exactly that threshold is to file. I mean at the pace you're going, you're likely going to have a sizable majority of the claims valued by year-end. You have 90% resolved already. If there's continued progress, could you potentially make the filing earlier? Can you hit 100% by year-end? I guess, why are we waiting to file?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes, Shar. Thanks for the question. A couple of thoughts on that. First, we've talked notionally before about having at least 90 to 90 plus. That's not a hard threshold, right? And what we want to see is substantial completion. Substantial is not 100% necessarily, right? So we're not focused on that. But we want to see enough progress that we believe that we can then put an application in front of the commission that they will then say, they will agree happy enough of these settlements in place so that there is clarity about the final exposure. When you think about that 90% that we have in aggregate right now, remember that it's a split across the -- both the Thomas Koenigstein, mudslide matters as well as the Woolsey matter. We've mentioned in the past that those are different cases. And so what we've pointed to towards the -- or by the end of 2030 is confidence that we'll make our first application by then. Thomas Koenigstein, mudslide happened a year earlier, so stentorian that those be more likely the first to go into an application. And so remember that 90 -- nearly 90% we have now is across all of the cases, and we haven't broken that out just for -- it is active litigation, so it's just best to provide that as a joint number. So I think bottom line is we feel a sense of urgency, which I think is what's really underlying your question, we feel a sense of urgency to file for cost recovery, but we want to sure we do it right. And we haven't given you a precise number. It's this x.y percent that we need to hit. I don't think the number exists because as we're looking at not only the amount outstanding, but also the number of plaintiffs, the types of cases that will all factor into our ultimate judgment call on when it's ready for prime time.
Shahriar Pourreza:
And then just given the progress being made on just on the underground legislation, does that potentially give you some framework to address some areas that would benefit, I guess, from that approach? And since you stated that covered conductors are, I guess, a much more effective solution for your service territory. Do you think there should be a legislative enabled framework that covers more than just undergrounding as a physical risk reduction measure?
Pedro Pizarro:
Thanks, Shar. We have that framework. It's called AB 1054, and the wildfire mitigation plan process. So we feel very comfortable with that framework. Under that framework, we shared with you last quarter that we are looking at a number of areas where we'll do increased targeted undergrounding. We do have a very different geography from our friends at PG&E. They have -- we've talked about this before, they have a lot more forest land, where more of their incidents have come from trees falling into lines outside of the vegetation management zone. We have more grasslands Chaparral or we get more blow in making contact with the lines. And so that's why, from a risk spend efficiency perspective covered conductor, which is a fraction of the custom of undergrounding and we can deploy much more quickly has been the superior solution for most of our territory. But again, under the wildfire mitigation plan, we are looking at doing more undergrounding and targeted spots. I think we said in the past that probably be hundreds of miles for us, not thousands of miles. You asked about the legislative package is going through Sacramento right now, and our friends at PG&E, I think, are very focused on that because they have much larger scale of undergrounding. And so I certainly respect that. But given the scale that we have on our hands and the strength of the wildfire mitigation plan framework for Southern California Edison, I think we have what we need at this point. Should legislation be passed, we will, of course, take a look at it and see if there's anything there that would be beneficial for our customers.
Shahriar Pourreza:
And just maybe one last quick one for you is just what's the ROEs that underpin the growth rate that you guys just reiterated
Maria Rigatti:
So we have 10.3% embedded in our growth rate, and we have been looking at that and managing around all of that since we put the numbers out there.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Michael Lapides from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open, sir.
Michael Lapides:
Just curious, when you're looking out at potential things that could make material changes to your long-term rate base growth guidance, and I don't mean long term 20 and 30 years, that's probably further out than I'm going to be tracking you guys. But let's talk 2024, 2025, 2026, how do you think about things that could move the needle in those years? And what the process is to get more certainty on those items?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes. Great question. And I do care a lot about the growth rate in 2030 and 2040, but probably be other folks who are actually leading that at that point. So things that can move the needle. And we've talked about this before, too. But first, we start with the core growth rate that we have shared and the expectation of the 5% to 7% to 25%. And there's plenty of stuff underpinning that, right? It starts with the investments needed to maintain our core grid. It continues with the enhancements we see are needed to the grid that we outlined are reimagining the grid white paper, as we continue to make investments not only to have a safe and reliable grid, but one that's also resilient, right? And so there's just a lot of good core bread-and-butter investment that goes into that. We have also talked about how we have expectation inside that 5% to 7% of additional investments that the utility may be asked to make or should make in order to help support the clean energy transition. And so I think it's those -- particularly that category, where we know there will be some level of need. We will need to see how the market materializes and to what extent there are additional programs that will be beneficial not only for the clean energy transition, but also beneficial to our customers and beneficial for our customers, ultimately underwriting that investment on behalf of all customers and the rest of the economy, right? And I think a good example is when you see the approach we took with our building electrification application or SCE's application, that $677 million application, it's meant to really stimulate a part of the market that is moving pretty sluggishly right now. And when you look at the benefit to cost of the proposal, it's right around one. We love it when programs we propose to have even stronger benefit cost ratios. But in this case, that's for a part of the market that needs to be stimulated just like solar was stimulated 15 years ago with various incentives and policies. So we're really thinking about what are those investments that we can make that move the needle not first for our earnings, but move the needle first for customers for the economy. And I think if we do that right, that will then move the needle for investments for our earnings as well. I mentioned electrification. That's both building and transportation. That would include storage as another item that we could see greater need for. So we're excited about the prospects for the future.
Michael Lapides:
And then one follow-up, just on the cost recovery process in filing, I mean you talked about filing at the end of '24 -- second half of 2023. Is there a framework for what that proceeding would actually look like, like how that would actually work process-wise at the CPUC?
Maria Rigatti:
Michael, we've actually gone through all of the pieces of the CPUC process, but for recovery. The one outstanding thing that happened recently was that we got our settlement with the SED reapproved. So approved a second time. Interveners are now taking a look at that, of course, so we've gone through the CPUC process, but for the application. And that's what we would be doing. We'll be filing an application for recovery, which would lay out all of our requests as well as other information about the claims, et cetera. So that's really the process. And once you file an application, then the commission would come back with a scoping memo and a procedural schedule.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jonathan Arnold with Vertical Research Partners. Your line is open.
Jonathan Arnold:
Maria, you mentioned that you have good news on insurance costs. Could you -- and maybe that's in the queue, but could you perhaps share a little more detail?
Maria Rigatti:
Sure, Jonathan. So maybe I'll take a step back to, we are really working hard on minimizing the cost of wildfire insurance for our customers. And we talked before about doing that in two ways. One is, getting the commercial premiums down and then also using customer-funded self-insurance, so we can fill the tower. And this year, we've actually filled pieces of the tower, about $100 million worth with customer-funded self-insurance. So that's a really great avenue for customer cost reduction and affordability because if you don't have losses, you just roll that forward to the next year. The other piece, which is sort of, I'll say, a third-party indication is what are the commercial insurance carriers charging us. And what we have found this year, and as I noted, because of the ongoing risk reduction that we have going on at the company. If you look at last policy year, which just ended versus the current policy year which has now just started are weighed online, since the percentage that we're being charged -- again, across the tower up and down from the low level all the way to the top. Overall, the average has gone from 47% rate online to 43% rate online. So we're finding that -- we're seeing a trend that people are starting to see the risk mitigation and acknowledging it. And when we couple that with the use of customer-funded self-insurance, we're able to provide a better outcome for our customers.
Jonathan Arnold:
Just to make sure I understand that. So for $100 million of coverage, it would be $43 million versus $47 million and scaled up to the size of the program.
Maria Rigatti:
That's right. That's right. That's how you do it.
Jonathan Arnold:
And then just one other question on cost. Just curious, you called out O&M in the quarter. Curious whether to what extent that was timing or more for the general inflationary pressure. And I also noticed you filed a Z-Factor adjustment on labor costs and -- so maybe talk a little bit about that, too, just as well in the context around guidance.
Maria Rigatti:
Sure, absolutely. The O&M that I mentioned in the quarter, there's some of that Track 3 that's moving through both of those buckets, but it's really a timing issue on the wildfire mitigation expense recognition. So that's what happened in the quarter. I think in terms of inflation and the like, we did file a Z-Factor application few weeks ago now, and that's in recognition of the fact that we have -- in terms of where we're seeing inflation, it's largely labor related, labor that does our management, wildfire mitigation, outside contractors. So that's where we're seeing it. We do have a number of areas that we use in order to mitigate the impacts of inflation. So we have the attrition mechanism that's in our GRC. And we use a basket of indices to escalate the revenue requirement every year. So I think that's one really important inflationary risk mitigate. We have interestingly in the balancing accounts and the memo accounts, the amounts that get recorded there, ultimately, they do get trued up for reasonableness, but we can embed the costs there that we're seeing in the market now. So there's an avenue there as well on the capital side. In our Track 4 filing, we also included some additional inflation mitigation, so that when we come to 2024, we'll be able to recognize the actual inflation that's occurred. And again, just going back to that one instance of the Z-Factor where we noted that we were seeing some inflationary impact. Now as we go out further in time, and you get to the longer-term growth trajectory, obviously, 2025 is a new GRC and we'll be able to embed the current contracts that we have. So that covers the waterfront I think, in terms of inflation impact.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research. Your line is open.
Steve Fleishman:
I know you kind of strongly resupported the 5% to 7% earnings growth for '25. Just curious when you're doing that, are you including kind of the higher financing cost environment that, let's say, we currently have versus beginning of the year when you kind of do that? Is that kind of in the mix?
Maria Rigatti:
Yes, it's absolutely in the mix, Steve. I think underpinning that 5% to 7% EPS trajectory, ultimately always keep going back to the rate base growth and that 7% to 9% rate base growth that we've been talking about that still Pedro answered the earlier question, I think, pretty extensively. So I won't go into that again. But that's really the fundamental for that EPS growth. But those other items that we've shared with you, so whether it's operational variances or parents and the holdco or the SCE costs above authorized, those are there, I think, to create some context for folks, you can see things as they move forward in time. We're always managing across all of those buckets. And each of those line items covers many, many sub topics as well. So when we came through into this quarter, we did update those SCE costs above authorized to reflect higher interest rates. I would say that we are definitely looking at that from the perspective of what's the tenor that we would use, looking at interest rate forecast, et cetera. So we would expect that at that point in time, we're probably -- we're going to file two cost recovery applications, right? Because Pedro mentioned that before, TKM involve the different time horizons. So based on filing the first application in late 2023, and then a subsequent application, there still could be applications still pending. So we will be looking at the shorter end of the curve. And we're probably -- we're in the 375 or so percent interest rate embedded in that forecast at this point.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Paul Fremont with Mizuho. Your line is open.
Paul Fremont:
And so I get the sort of the 2025 slide that talks about $0.20 of higher interest expense. But can you sort of discuss the $0.20 change in the operating variances and what's comprised in your assumptions there and the change in your assumptions?
Maria Rigatti:
Sure. So operational variances, you see us talk about that every year, and that's an area that we manage very closely. It's something that I think is core to sort of our overall operational excellence perspective and commitment, and we have had the lowest system average rate in the state for a long time. So I think that there's a lot of history behind that. Included in that, though, there's -- as I mentioned earlier, there are just so many different things. That line item can include -- if you just see it, it includes the timing of regulatory impacts. It includes operational efficiencies, it include things like depreciation true-ups. So as we get closer and closer, and we continue to look at the mix that's involved there, we've just been able to make refinements and expectations about what we'll be able to deliver at that point in time. And it's a natural thing for us to do because we do know that there have been some changes in terms of the interest rate environment that we're dealing with in the other category. So it's just part of our overall approach to managing the business.
Paul Fremont:
But is there anything sort of specific or it's just sort of a confluence of all of the things that you talked about?
Maria Rigatti:
It is a lot of different things in that category. It's just running the business and what we would perceive to be and characterized as an operationally excellent manner.
Pedro Pizarro:
And Maria, I would add to that, Paul, just to give you a little more color. It is a big business. There's a lot of moving parts. And one of the things that's been really interesting and the work that we shared last quarter, right, where Steve Powell and team at SCE are driving further operational improvement, there's some bigger ideas, some smaller ideas, but this kind of bottom-up approach that we're focused on right now that has our employees, our teammates very deeply engaged in this. There's not a one big bang thing in there. You see to Maria's point, there's a lot of hard work and elbow grease across every part of the enterprise. And that's another illustration of how you just get a lot of pieces that add up to the total. And that we think is valuable because it gives us good diversity of approach in terms of operations.
Paul Fremont:
And I think your disclosure talks about sort of the $3 billion of debt that has funded wildfires through the end of last year. Can you provide any update on that as to what issuance you might have done so far this year?
Maria Rigatti:
SCE had one issuance earlier this year that was -- the use of which was to fund wildfire claims. The approach typically, Paul, is we'll make a number of wildfire claims payments and over the course of the year as it builds up to a particular amount, then SCE would go out and finance it in the capital markets. But I don't think there's been anything that's been different. I think that occurred in Q1, I believe.
Paul Fremont:
And how much will that?
Maria Rigatti:
That was $1.25 billion, if I recall correctly or 1.2 something, round numbers.
Paul Fremont:
And then last question. If I heard you correctly, you're looking to sort of -- are you looking to finance variable rate? Or are you looking to finance fixed rate? Because you were talking about sort of the short end of the curve.
Maria Rigatti:
Yes. So we are -- definitely have already utilized all of that, some fixed rate notes, as well as looking at some variable rates that the team actually had term loans out there from time to time for it. So we're just going to look at what's the most efficient and effective way to do it, as we get there. I just would focus you on shorter end of the curve because we will still likely just give the timing for our applications for recovery, likely be in the middle of that potentially for the second application. I think it's really important because we need to minimize the cost, obviously, because minimizing cost is the efficient way to run the business. But also when we apply to a recovery of the claims payments, we'll also be applying for recovery of the interest expense associated with financing them over this period of time. So it's really important for us to keep an eye on that from a customer perspective as well.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith, your line is open, from Bank of America.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
If I may, maybe to just pick up off of where these last couple of guys left off here. On the puts and takes on the $0.20, the plus and the minus there, can you talk about timing of the recovery? Do you start to get some of that recovery in by '25 or '26 if you think about it? Or you still kind of think about the same notional amount being outstanding there and you're just putting a different, the 375 or what have you there from the $0.20 Delta? And then on the other side of that, as you think about the $0.20 uplift on operational excellence, that would probably shift in and out based on rate case cycle, too, right?
Maria Rigatti:
Yes. So two pieces there. The first, maybe I'll just clarify. We don't actually embed recovery in the growth targets, the 5% to 7%. We are absolutely going to file an application. We're making the -- we're going to have a great argument and a great set of customary that we're going to file with the commission, but that's not the embedded assumption in that 5% to 7%. So that's one thing. In terms of the operational efficiencies and going in and out over time. So we definitely do this on behalf of our customers. We want to increase the efficiency of the company, so that overall customer rates can be managed most effectively, and we make as much as possible for all of the necessary capital, of course, that 79% rate base growth represents capital that we will be deploying. But we're going to continue whatever the year, it was the first year of the rate case cycle or last year rate case cycle, we're actually always pursuing efficiencies. So that's a piece of the puzzle for us every year, year in, year out, going after it. And then there are a bunch of other things in that overall bucket of operational variances as well. So there are places where we're going to pull levers in order to ensure the most efficient outcome. So it's many things. But I think in terms of the operational efficiencies question, specifically that you asked, we're just doing it year in, and year out, regardless of what year of the rate cycle is in.
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes. And Maria, that's great. You covered it well. Just to underscore your first point, we have not included cost recovery and the base case that goes into the 5% to 7%. And we're doing that to be consistent with the GAAP treatment, right, since the only decision out there was the very flawed San Diego Gas & Electric position from a decade ago. But we're very confident about the merits of the case and our ability to demonstrate to the commission that we -- the SCE merits cost recovery, at least at some level. And so that is something that beyond all the things that make us confident about the 5% to 7%, that's an extra piece that we haven't even baked into the analysis. So that gives you some sense of our level of confidence here.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Right. No, indeed. In fact, if I can talk about the cadence of these operational excellence, I think you just took a charge here on organizational realignment in the quarter here. Can you talk about sort of what that -- is this the start of a wider program? How does that fit into that $0.20 benefit by '25? Should be expecting more of that? You know what I mean to what extent could that feed in earlier in terms of that $0.20 uplift?
Pedro Pizarro:
Steve -- Julian, let's have Steve Powell come in here as the CEO of the utility, so he can give a little color on how he's thinking about the program.
Steven Powell:
Sure. Thanks, Pedro. So the charge you kind of noted is related to part of the changes that we're looking at and what we call our catalyst program, this bottom-up set of ideas for employees. And we -- as we've talked about before, we identified thousands of ideas. Our teams went through and identified 600-plus ideas that are all contributing to improvements, not just around affordability, they're going to help customers, but as well as things around safety, reliability, et cetera. And our plan is to go and execute against those ideas over the next 24 months or so and kind of reap benefits all along the way. Some of them require investment in technology support, there's process changes. But that's what's going to lead to some of the operational efficiencies that we'll get as well as other improvements around our core operating metrics. We would expect that this, along with other efforts are things that will become more of a recurring activity that help drive continued operational improvements and efficiencies year-over-year. And so as we get our legs underneath us with this program and look to the next one, we'll be able to better identify how much of that is going to become a great benefit for customers and in interim periods could contribute to earnings.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
So it sounds like maybe it's still more ratable through the forecast right here?
Operator:
Our next question comes from Ryan Levine with Citi. Your line is open.
Ryan Levine:
Of the $5.2 billion of potential cost recovery, is there a ballpark portion that you would look to file in late '23 that could be shared at this point? Or when would we learn -- or just gain more clarity around the scope of the initial filing?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes. Ryan, it's a good question. You might recall that we really haven't split apart the TKM versus Woolsey claim amounts. We've been pretty candid that we do have active litigation going on, active settlements going on. And so I think it's been in our customers' interest to present the combined picture of the two. So therefore, we really can't provide color at this time on what the split is between those two and therefore, what you might see in an earlier filing versus later filing?
Ryan Levine:
Just in terms of time line, I mean, is there a period of time when you would actually be able to provide that clarity, given your comments around not necessarily needs to be 100% addressed or claimed?
Pedro Pizarro:
Ryan, what we've done is that we've given you the outside mark, we expect to be making that first filing by the end of 2023. As I mentioned a little earlier, we have a sense of urgency. So if we see that we progressed enough with settlements where we can go earlier, we will do that. I would expect that we would give you that color as we're making the application, as we're filing -- as we are coincidently filing the application. And you can understand why just against sensitivity as we continue the negotiation process for settlements that -- I just want to let the entire market know us at the same time that we let the regulators know that we're making that application.
Ryan Levine:
And then regarding the $7.9 billion claim, it's unchanged from last quarter, which is good to see, given the remaining expected loss number came in. Do you have greater confidence on this remaining $900 million expected loss versus previous quarters? Or is there any way to frame the confidence level versus history.
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes. Let me answer it this way. Maria, you may have something to add here. We continue to make sure that we are really being straight down the middle of the road and you seem have GAAP definitions, right? And so we want to make sure that we're providing you our best estimate at any given time. And that best estimate, as you saw, they not change quarter-to-quarter. We disclosed that the actual number could be higher, could be lower. I think the one factor to consider is that while there is always uncertainty in that final number, the cone of uncertainty keeps getting narrower because now we have $400 million in that expected estimate. And so just the amount remaining is smaller. So therefore, to the extent that we might have had -- and I know we haven't disclosed it this way, right, but if you thought about an x percent potential level of uncertainty over $1.3 billion and an x percent level of uncertainty over $900 million, we're a [Indiscernible] percent smaller number now this quarter. That's about all I can say, but I do want to reiterate, consistent with our disclosures that there is uncertainty to that, that is our best estimate, the final number could be higher or lower.
Operator:
That was the last question. I would now like to turn the call back over to Sam Ramraj. Thank you.
Sam Ramraj:
Thank you for joining us. This concludes the conference call. Have a fantastic rest of the day and stay safe out there. You may now disconnect.
Disclaimer*:
This transcript is designed to be used alongside the freely available audio recording on this page. Timestamps within the transcript are designed to help you navigate the audio should the corresponding text be unclear. The machine-assisted output provided is partly edited and is designed as a guide.:
Operator:
00:04 Good afternoon, and welcome to the Edison International First Quarter 2022 Financial Teleconference. My name is Dextor, and I will be your operator today. [Operator Instructions] Today's call is being recorded. 00:19 I will like to now turn the call over to Mr. Sam Ramraj, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Ramraj, you may begin your conference.
Sam Ramraj:
00:29 Thank you, Dextor, and welcome everyone. Our speakers today are President and Chief Executive Officer, Pedro Pizarro; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Maria Rigatti. Also on the call are other members of the management team. 00:43 Materials supporting today's call are available at www.edisoninvestor.com. These include our Form 10-Q, prepared remarks from Pedro and Maria, and the teleconference presentation. Tomorrow, we will distribute our regular business update presentation. 01:01 During this call, we'll make forward-looking statements about the outlook for Edison International and its subsidiaries. Actual results could differ materially from current expectations. Important factors that could cause different results are set forth in our SEC filings. Please read these carefully. The presentation includes certain outlook assumptions, as well as reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure. 01:28 During the question-and-answer session, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. I will now turn the call over to Pedro.
Pedro Pizarro:
01:37 Thank you, Sam. Edison International reported core earnings per share of $1.07, compared to $0.79 a year ago. We are reiterating our 2022 core EPS guidance range of $4.40 to $4.70 and our longer-term EPS growth target of 5% to 7% through 2025, resulting in core EPS of $5.50 to $5.90. Maria will discuss our financial performance in her remarks. 02:08 Over the last year, I’ve been updating you on SCE’s substantial reduction of wildfire risk. Relative to pre-2018 levels, SCE estimates it has reduced the probability of losses from catastrophic wildfire by 65% to 70%, and continued investments will further reduce this risk. 02:26 When we look across all 17,000 circuit miles of distribution lines in SCE’s high fire risk area, the utility’s grid hardening measures are focused on the roughly 10,000 miles that are above ground, with the other 7,000 already being underground. The cornerstone of SCE’s grid hardening measures is the wildfire covered conductor program. A key benefit is how quickly it reduces wildfire risk. 02:52 Through the end of the first quarter, SCE has over 3,200 miles of covered conductor. This is nearly double what was covered at the same time last year. SCE continues to drive this program forward and expects to have covered 40% of its overhead distribution lines, or 4,000 of its 10,000 miles in its high fire risk areas, by year-end. 03:15 The utility continues to adapt and update its Wildfire Mitigation Plan to build on successes and learnings from the field. Most importantly, SCE’s WMP is immediately actionable, and the execution results in real risk reduction today and each day that SCE hardens its grid. In addition, SCE is preparing for this wildfire season by prioritizing its inspections and vegetation management programs. 03:40 SCE focuses its annual inspections on equipment that makes up 97% of total wildfire risk in 2022 and plans to accelerate completion of the vast majority of these inspections before September 1. 03:54 Today, 166 cameras provide visibility to about 90% of high fire risk areas, and planned installations in 2022 and beyond will increase coverage to nearly all of the utility’s HFRA to enhance early fire detection. SCE is increasing installed weather stations by over 10% and using machine learning to further advance forecasting and target PSPS events more precisely. Taken together, all of these efforts give SCE confidence in its ability to mitigate wildfires associated with its equipment. 04:29 Turning to wildfire-related settlements, SCE made substantial progress resolving 2017 and 2018 Wildfire and Mudslide Events claims. In the first quarter, SCE resolved over $700 million of claims. Driven by this progress and given SCE’s current assessment of claims, the utility revised the best estimate of total losses higher by $416 million to a total of $7.9 billion. 05:01 I would like to share the two factors that contributed to this revision. First, during the quarter there were a handful of exceptionally large claims that were settled based on new information that became available during settlement negotiations. Second, as the statute of limitations for the Woolsey fire approaches, SCE saw a higher-than-expected increase in the number of plaintiffs making claims. 05:26 SCE reviewed its estimate and determined it was appropriate to revise the best estimate, which includes new provisions for future potential exceptionally large claims. In total, the utility has resolved over 80% of its best estimate of expected losses and continues to make steady progress in resolving claims. 05:47 I would like to be clear that SCE currently expects to seek full CPUC cost recovery of claims payments, excluding amounts recoverable from insurance or FERC, or foregone under the agreement with the Safety Enforcement Division. A related question we’ve heard from the investment community is, “when does SCE expect to make that filing?” 06:09 Well, based on the current pace of settlements, SCE anticipates filing its first application for cost recovery by late 2023. I strongly believe that SCE operated its system prudently and will make a solid case in its filing. The considerations SCE will take into account in deciding the timing of its filings are described on Page 4. 06:31 Another action I want to highlight is SCE’s recent legal challenge to inverse condemnation in the Thomas and Koenigstein fire litigation. We have mentioned in past discussions that SCE will always seek opportunities to challenge the doctrine of inverse condemnation. 06:48 To that end, in April, the utility filed a notice of appeal with the California Court of Appeals challenging inverse condemnation. Cases like this generally take one to two years to reach a conclusion, and we will keep you apprised of any meaningful developments. 07:03 On the regulatory front, SCE recently filed its application for the 2023 CPUC cost of capital, requesting a return on equity of 10.53%, while maintaining its authorized equity layer at 52%. As we have outlined since publishing the Pathway 2045 vision, economywide electrification is necessary to meet California’s policy goals. 07:27 SCE will be a key enabler of the clean energy transition and will invest significant amounts of capital in its infrastructure. We believe that SCE’s requested ROE will support attracting this capital necessary to meet its obligations to provide safe, reliable, and resilient service and enable the state’s climate change adaptation and decarbonization goals. Separately, SCE is awaiting resolution of whether the cost of capital mechanism will operate for 2022. We have summarized SCE’s outstanding cost of capital applications on Page 5. 08:01 Let me conclude by saying that we strongly believe Edison International is the best investment vehicle to participate in California’s clean energy transition. SCE’s approach to wildfire mitigation has shown positive results over the last three wildfire seasons and the utility is expeditiously hardening the grid every day, to the benefit of both our customers and our investors. 08:25 As an electric-only, wires-focused utility, SCE’s ongoing investment in the grid will enable an electric-led future by integrating clean resources, while enhancing resilience and broader climate adaptation. Economywide electrification is the most affordable path to achieving California’s climate goals. 08:45 With that, Maria will provide her financial report.
Maria Rigatti:
08:49 Thank you, Pedro and good afternoon. My comments today will cover first quarter 2022 results, our capital expenditure and rate base forecasts, SCE’s cost of capital applications, and 2022 EPS guidance. 09:03 Edison International reported core earnings of $1.07 per share for the first quarter, an increase of $0.28 per share from the same period last year. Core EPS increased year-over-year, primarily due the adoption of the 2021 GRC final decision in the third quarter of 2021, partially offset by interest expense from increased borrowings. 09:26 On Page 6, you can see SCE’s key first quarter EPS drivers on the right-hand side. I’ll highlight a few. Authorized revenue from the 2021 GRC was higher by $0.35 for two reasons. First, the escalation mechanism for 2022 contributed $0.18 to the variance. Second, because SCE did not have a GRC final decision in the first quarter of last year, it was recording revenue at 2020 levels. This timing difference contributed $0.17 to year-over-year Q1 revenue growth. 10:00 Other CPUC revenue was $0.51 higher, primarily related to the approval of GRC track 2. With this approval, SCE recognized revenue for costs previously deferred to memo accounts. Note that this revenue increase was fully offset, primarily by the recognition of $0.46 of O&M resulting from the track 2 decision. At EIX Parent and Other, the core loss was $0.06 higher in the first quarter. This was primarily due to dividends on the preferred equity issued last year. 10:33 Now let’s move to SCE’s capital expenditure and rate base forecasts. Page 7 shows SCE’s updated capital forecast to reflect its upcoming GRC track 4 application, which will be filed on May 13. Track 4 covers funding for 2024, which is the third attrition year of SCE’s 2021 GRC. 10:54 In addition to requesting a revenue increase driven by the GRC attrition mechanism and inflation, SCE will propose continued deployment of covered conductor beyond the over 5,000 miles expected to be installed by the end of 2023. 11:10 I would like to reiterate Pedro’s earlier comment on SCE’s wildfire mitigation plan. It is immediately actionable and the execution of the work results in real risk reduction today and each day that SCE hardens its grid. As shown on Page 8, our capital forecast continues to result in projected rate base growth of 7% to 9% from 2021 to 2025. 11:34 The forecast reflects SCE’s current view of the requests to be made in GRC track 4, the 2025 GRC, and other applications. We continue to see strong potential for SCE to continue deploying capital and achieving 7% to 9% rate base growth through 2025. 11:53 Turning to guidance, Pages 9 and 10 show our 2022 guidance and the key assumptions for modeling purposes. We are affirming our 2022 core EPS guidance range of $4.40 to $4.70. SCE is recording revenue based on its currently authorized cost of capital and will reflect the final decision in the 2022 cost of capital proceeding in the quarter in which it is received. 12:19 As Pedro mentioned, we are awaiting resolution of whether the cost of capital mechanism will operate for 2022. After receiving a final decision from the CPUC, we will provide an update on guidance to incorporate any changes in the ROE and our outlook for the rest of the year. 12:36 Also embedded in our guidance is EIX’s 2022 financing plan, which we disclosed last quarter and remains unchanged. The revision to the best estimate of total expected losses does not change our plan. Also, I’ll remind you that the claims payments themselves are funded with debt issued by SCE. 12:55 I’d like to provide some additional insight into two of SCE’s recent applications to the CPUC. First, SCE filed a request to extend its CPUC capital structure waiver with respect to the 2017 and 2018 Wildfire and Mudslide Events. You may recall that the CPUC previously approved a waiver through the earlier of May 2022 or resolution of the 2017 and 2018 events. 13:20 The waiver allows SCE to exclude certain charges and debt when calculating compliance with its 52% authorized CPUC equity ratio. SCE has requested an extension of the waiver period until the CPUC resolves the last of SCE’s cost recovery applications for the 2017 and 2018 events. 13:41 The current waiver remains in place until the CPUC rules on the recently filed application. This provides SCE with the flexibility to finance itself in a way that is efficient for customers and shareholders. Second, in SCE’s 2023 cost of capital application, it requested an ROE of 10.53%, consistent with its recently filed off-cycle application. This ROE is at the upper end of the reasonable range estimated by SCE’s expert witness. 14:12 We believe SCE made strong arguments justifying its request and remind you that in SCE’s last cost of capital decision the CPUC concluded SCE’s ROE should be at the upper end of the range. Under SCE’s proposed schedule, the proceeding would conclude with a final decision by the end of the year. 14:32 Turning to Page 11, I want to reiterate our growth opportunities that drive strong core earnings growth from 2021 through 2025, and highlight EIX’s potential to achieve double-digit total shareholder return during that period. A key component of our total return proposition is our common dividend, which currently yields approximately 4%. 14:54 I’m proud of our track record of 18 consecutive years of dividend growth and look forward to building on that history. Our EPS growth of 5% to 7% is driven by SCE’s significant capital expenditure opportunities, including investments in the safety and reliability of the grid. Sustainable rate base growth results from the investments necessary to reduce wildfire risk and investments to support infrastructure replacement and load growth. 15:20 Affordability is also a key consideration, and I would like to emphasize that SCE has the lowest system average rate among California’s large IOUs. This is in large part driven by our strong culture of excellent cost management that has been a cornerstone of the utility for more than a decade. 15:38 That concludes my remarks. Thank you.
Sam Ramraj:
15:40 Dextor, please open the call for questions. As a reminder, we request you to limit yourself to one question and one follow-up, so everyone in line has the opportunity to ask questions.
Operator:
15:52 [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Shar Pourreza of Guggenheim Partners. Shar, your line is open.
Shar Pourreza:
16:08 Hey guys.
Pedro Pizarro:
16:09 Hi Shar.
Maria Rigatti:
16:10 Hi Shar.
Shar Pourreza:
16:12 Pedro, first sort of in terms of the initial filings coming in 2023, it’s obviously it is a great start to a resolution and it obviously implies that you would be filing multiple times for recovery, how do we plan to separate the tranches? Is it kind of based on the percentage of value settled? Just want to get some clarity on the process from your standpoint. How long the recovery, regulatory recovery could take and if you don’t have 90% of the claims settled, are you still going to file in late 2023? And even why not file even sooner in 2022, if these are going to be in step functions?
Pedro Pizarro:
16:49 Shar all good part to the question. We shared before that we expected the CPUC and [churn] [ph] expects to have this piece substantially complete our any given case before we go for cost recovery. So, we’ve also said in the past that we see the 2017 Thomas and Koenigstein mudslide cases as one bundle and the Woolsey case from 2018 as a separate bundle. 17:15 So, I think it would be natural to expect this – to see those as individual cost recovery packages and so we talked about being, what we think will need to be at least 90% complete it’s for any one of those packages before we then go file the application. Just to make sure, our [indiscernible] came across clearly based on the current track and pace with the litigation and settlements, we would expect that earliest bundle to be at that 90% plus level by the end of 2023 so that ends our expectation we will be making a filing in late 2023, but again that is premised on continuing on the track that we’ve been and if we don’t expect this to be the case, we currently expect to be there by late 2020, but if something happened, you know that significantly delayed us from being off of that track. 18:16 I don’t know what that would be. I know the round of COVID that really led to shut down, so something like that or might recall the early period of COVID really put a halt on the piece of discussions. Don’t expect it to happen, but it is that kind of thing that could then throw the timing of the [unlike] [ph] 2023, don’t currently expect that to be the case.
Shar Pourreza:
18:36 Got it. And then just, I guess the [impetus] [ph] was we’re getting questions on – because you have 80% already almost resolved, it seems like it is “substantial” so why not file sooner, but it makes sense, it makes sense Pedro. And then, just may be a question for Maria, as I was sort of thinking about potentially more cost increases as sort of the incremental 20% gets resolved, what's the trigger for more equity back and as we think about the balance sheet capacity, sort of other rating agencies comfortable with the current metrics and the approach you guys are taking, how is the dialogue going? I guess, what's their sense of patients in anticipation of multiple filings for recovery? Thanks.
Maria Rigatti:
19:17 Sure. Thanks, Shar. And I think generally, our financing framework is 15% to 17%, FFO is debt. I think we’re approximately at those levels right now. I think as we go into next year, I would say, we’re generally going to be sort of around the middle of that range. I think the rating agencies first and foremost are interested in our risk reduction and that's the first order of any conversation we have with them. 19:40 And so, we've been able to emphasize with the rating agencies that 65% to 70% risk reduction because of the hardening of the grid, we continue to talk to them about the strong support we get from AB 1054 and so those are all the things that really are part and parcel of our rating agency discussions. 19:57 You know from the comments we've already made today that the change in the best estimate currently is not [indiscernible] us to change our financing plan, we're still on track with advancing plan we announced in Q4 for 2022. And if we move forward, subject to any changes – further changes in the estimate, really it's going to depend on, sort of the timing where we are, etcetera, but since we are in a good spot in our metrics, I think that we'll continue to have constructive conversations with the rating agencies.
Shar Pourreza:
20:27 Got it. That's what I wanted to sort of get [indiscernible] if there's incremental cost increases you think you have enough cushion in your balance or thresholds not have to hit the equity markets. That's the impetus.
Maria Rigatti:
20:40 Yes. So, we played out our longer-term equity plan as well that follows our growth in the company. And as we move through and into that 15% to 17% range, that will just give us some more support in the balance sheet.
Shar Pourreza:
20:53 Okay, terrific. Thank you guys so much.
Pedro Pizarro:
20:56 Thank you, Shar.
Operator:
20:57 Our next question comes from Steve Fleishman, Wolfe Research. Steve, your line is open.
Steve Fleishman:
21:06 Yeah, hi. Good afternoon. Thank you. So, just on the prudency cases, any sense Pedro, Maria, how long those cases might take to adjudicate?
Pedro Pizarro:
21:22 Hard to predict in advance. I would say, first of all, it starts with having a strong showing. So, we expect that our team will have a very strong showing put together when we file. And as you can imagine, the team has been working on that all along. 21:37 Once you go into a CPUC proceeding, it’s hard to estimate, what that would be, I'd say, typical time frames for CPUC proceedings can be and the short-end something very fast maybe the 12 months, 15 months, sometimes it can take a little a little longer, so we'll just have to see, and I have a better gauge for how long it might take once we file and once we see what kind of initial set of intermediary actions are filed.
Steve Fleishman:
22:06 Okay. That's helpful. And then just related, the estimate change this quarter, you mentioned the exceptionally large claims and also the statute limitations hitting for Woolsey like, any reason - why can't those things happen again, I guess? Is there another statute of limitations on any of the fires still to come?
Pedro Pizarro:
22:36 So, for the 2017 and 2018 cases, the remaining statute of [limitations stayed] is just we'll see that I thought it to. To your broader question, as we go along, that uncertain count continues to narrow right because we have more settlements under our belt and you heard 80% number. As you'll see in other disclosures, we acknowledge it is possible we may see further changes because the reality is, every individual case is different. And frankly there can be new insights and new kinds of cases, etcetera that show up. 23:19 In this particular quarter, as we mentioned, we made great progress Steve, but frankly, there was a small number of outlier cases where the ultimate claims were significantly larger than what we had expected based on the neighborhood these were in, what you would expect for an average case in those and sale, one thing that you are going to be saying is that we have now made provisions not only increasing the reserve for what we have seen, but we also added a provision in the reserve now, now expecting some of that previously unexpected, right? Based on the experience we had, we've added provision or potential other exceedingly large individual claims exceeding what we had initially thought might be an average claim size. So, we try to learn from the continuous information we've gotten, make the provision for that, but at the end of the day under GAAP we would provide [indiscernible] what we believe is our best estimate at this point in time.
Maria Rigatti:
24:26 Maybe I’d just add one other thing Steve, because I think as we go through our best estimate exercise, it is important we are looking at it every quarter and we'll continue – it’s going to continue to be one of the big areas of management judgment, but as I think about it, I also think about all the things you've accomplished that have brought us to this point. We started with the public entity settlements. We went to the TKM subrogation settlements. 24:46 We went then to the [indiscernible] subrogation claim settlement. Over the course of that time, the attorney general has closed both of the increase into both Woolsey and the TKM. In just the last quarter, Q1 2022 we did $700 million in settlements. So that's what brought us to this point where we made the revision, but it's also what brought us to this point in terms of being able to highlight by late 2023 going in for a prudency review and filing an application. 25:13 So, I think all of that also factors into, sort of how we thought about the quarter and how we're thinking about the go-forward?
Pedro Pizarro:
25:21 I think, also Maria, and basically, we keep taking uncertainty off the table.
Steve Fleishman:
25:28 Thank you for all that added color. Thank you.
Pedro Pizarro :
25:31 Yes. Thanks, Steve.
Operator:
25:33 Our next question comes from Ryan Levine, Citi. Ryan, your line is open.
Ryan Levine:
25:39 Hi, good afternoon. Hi, everybody. Two questions, what's the status of the battery supply chain and execution? And do you still see the August first date as realistic? And I guess more broadly, how do you viewing resource adequacy going into the remaining portion of the year?
Pedro Pizarro:
25:56 Yeah. I'll kick off on that and actually, I can also turn it over to Steve Powell in a minute here. So, CEO of the Utility. I think the headline on this is that, as you know, [indiscernible] contractor for the SCE 535 megawatt utility on-storage project. We are working with them under the contract. There have been constraints in terms of the development of the whole supply chain, as you can imagine what conditions in – particularly in China. 26:31 We do see the potential for a portion of the project being online by August first, but Steve, let me turn it over to you to provide some more commentary on this.
Steve Powell:
26:42 Sure. So, hey, Ryan the – like we talked about for the increased risk of delivery, some of that's come through and at this point based on the project delays, we're trying to get work with Ameresco to ensure we get as many megawatts online as possible. At this point, we expect that there could be up to 300 megawatts online in August, still subject to continued COVID and shipping restrictions out of China. But on the ground here, work is progressing. 27:16 With respect to the broader battery supply chain and really to your other question around resource adequacy, as we look at this summer, we feel that the state is in a slightly better position than it's been the last couple of summers with respect to capacity. We're definitely focused on bringing our batteries online and ensuring other projects are getting online for this summer, but still there'll be a lot of caution going into summer and there's is a lot effort going into ensuring we get more resources available. 27:47 As you project beyond this year, as we know, the state is focused on bringing more than 11,000 megawatts of resources online by 2026. SCE’s portion of that is about 4,000 megawatts, and so we continue to procure resources for 2023, 2024 and then we'll be focused on 2025 and 2026 next. 28:07 We're working on everything from interconnection to securing supplies and with all of our third parties. To ensure that we can get enough resources in the state to ensure the liability and that's SCE’s job as well as the other entities within the state. So, this summer, we'll be in a better position than the last few summers.
Pedro Pizarro:
28:26 And Steve, I’ll give a lot of credit, not only to other load-serving entities like SCE, but the CPUC, the Governor’s office, I think everybody is very focused on continuing to reduce the risk in California.
Ryan Levine:
28:40 Thanks. And I guess one follow-up. In terms of the cost recovery, if you're going to file that in late 2023, how are you currently looking at use of proceeds?
Maria Rigatti:
28:52 Hey, Ryan, it's Maria. I mean, obviously, we have some – upon recovery, we have some de-levering to do. SCE has issued a bunch of debt to support the claims payments and EIX has as well issued press to support the balance sheet. So, when we get through that and we'll figure out what the next steps are with the use of proceeds.
Ryan Levine:
29:12 Appreciate the color. Thank you.
Pedro Pizarro:
29:14 Thanks much, Ryan.
Operator:
29:16 Our next question comes from Sophie Karp, KeyBanc. Sophie, your line is open.
Sophie Karp:
29:22 Hi, good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. So, to follow-up on this battery project, right, so, I think your equity needs for this year were a little higher to accommodate the cost of this project versus, kind of like 250 run rate that you communicated for other periods, should we expect that to sort of come down because of the potential delays with this project, or should we not expect that?
Maria Rigatti:
29:50 Sophie, we still plan to deploy the full capital plan this year. So, it would impact on our financing plan.
Sophie Karp:
29:57 Got it. Thank you. And then, could you talk a little bit more about the reason that you will challenge to inverse condemnation that we discussed in your prepared remarks. I guess question is, where could this go? And given the potential outcomes what are the implications for the current legal proceedings or the framework in the State, and how should we view this? Help us [train this] [ph]?
Pedro Pizarro:
30:22 Let me turn this over to Adam Umanoff, who’s our General Counsel, Sophie.
Adam Umanoff:
30:26 Hey, Sophie, good afternoon. So, the utility had the opportunity to enter into a settlement with a particular plaintiff that we now are able to appeal to an [indiscernible] court here in California. The issue is the application in inverse condemnation to investor own utilities. And as we said before, we think that the existing law is misguided that investor on utilities should not be strictly liable for damages arising from wildfires that are ignited by their equipment. 31:01 And there's an imbalance in the way the court has imposed strict liability against investor on utilities versus the fact that we need to ship prudence in cost recovery proceedings with our regulator. So, if we are successful in winning an appeal, we would no longer be subject to strict liability in a wildfire case rather plaintiffs would need to show that we were negligent in the construction and operation of our equipment to pursue damages. That would be a significant improvement in the liability exposure than investor on utilities have in California.
Sophie Karp:
31:43 So would that apply to only like prior cases of wildfire damages or prospectively as well?
Adam Umanoff :
31:51 It would only apply respectively. As a practical matter, we live with the current law that we have for cases that have been settled. Those would not be reopened, but for even current cases that have not yet been resolved, if we were to win an appeal that would be new law and that law would apply to pending cases, but the appeal process is likely to take some time. So, I wouldn't expect an immediate answer from an [adult court] [ph].
Sophie Karp:
32:20 Right. So, if you won, would that sort of greatly diminish the need for the current, I guess, wildfire framework or in the states?
Adam Umanoff:
32:31 Well, there's a question of what the utilities liability is on the one hand, a separate issue is recovering costs in a wildfire case under a prudence review, which would still happen under AB 1054.
Pedro Pizarro:
32:49 I think, Sophie, said another way inverse condemnation really is about [indiscernible] speaking here, but that’s another avenue for [indiscernible] cases and surcharges against the utility. AB 1054 is really about defining the [part] [ph], the most important part in our view is, really finding the prudency framework under which utilities can seek cost recovery or fire damages that have [indiscernible] to the utility. 33:19 So, doing away with interest condemnation by reduce the – potentially the exposure for utilities, but once those exposure for utility AB 1054 is all about how the utility first pays for those damages in the first instance, right? In terms of accessing the fund and then more importantly over time, the utility makes the case for cost recovery and demonstrating that it's been prudent. So that is important I think in any scenario and we're glad to have that strong piece of legislation.
Sophie Karp:
33:52 Alright. Thank you for the color?
Pedro Pizarro:
33:54 Yes thanks very much Sophie.
Sophie Karp:
33:55 Thank you.
Operator:
33:57 Our next question comes from Jonathan Arnold, Vertical Research Partners. Jonathan, your line is open.
Jonathan Arnold:
34:02 Hi, good afternoon guys. Just a quick one on these larger claims, Pedro, you're talking about, and if I understood you correctly, you have some that you've already seen that were much bigger than you thought they would be, and then you've also made a provision for potentially others that might come in larger. Can you give us any more color of these, sort of claims you kind of know are coming and that you have the [payments] [ph] identified is just a question of how big is it going to be or is it more a case of new claims are just popping up, you might not have had on your radar. I don’t know, [indiscernible] if you can share anything there?
Pedro Pizarro:
34:46 No. So, as you might imagine Jonathan, I can't share anything about [indiscernible] the radar because that would be active litigation or settlement discussions. But maybe I can give you an illustration of one case without getting view any sort of detail. These are personal property cases, right? And that's by and large where we are seeing some these larger than expected cases. 35:11 And so, as I mentioned earlier, the way we developed the best estimate, and the first instance was, we understand what the neighbor head is. When we are [indiscernible] what the average value of homestays, we make provisions for the average value of contents in that average home. But not on home [indiscernible] average, and we know, right, and I think the average expense accounts and it will be a little higher, so will be a little bit lower. 35:33 Well, in the case of this last quarter, we saw a handful – a number of cases that were exceedingly large and one of them to illustrate it, one example is, make sure that Adam is okay with my [[sharing is] as I speak, but there was a case of an individual homeowner who happened to have a very expensive automobile production into the garage. 35:59 Well, above and beyond what the kinds of cars that people keep in very often neighborhood. This was an exceptional case where you basically had and you see them quality collection with lots and lots of cars. 36:14 Very hard to predict that upfront. We did not build a provision for that kind of amazing car collection in anybody’s garage when we built the best estimate and so, the reserve now includes our provisions for what we paid. And it also has included our provisions for business statistical analysis, some number, and I'm not going to be very specific about this, obviously because we are in active mitigation, but we now have included in our provision for some number of additional exceptionally large cases in the [remaining tail] [ph] that we're working for. Does that help illustrate it Jonathan?
Jonathan Arnold:
36:55 I think so, yeah, thank you for that Pedro. And if I may just on that tail and how – it is my follow-up, the new best estimate is 7.9, you’ve got 1.3 sort of unresolved, which is actually sort of closer to 85% really in round numbers. 37:16 So, and if you continue to – you obviously resolved 700 million in this quarter. Given what you're saying about timing and the 90% target, it feels like you must be anticipating quite a slowdown and pace of resolution here.
Maria Rigatti:
37:33 Actually Jonathan, this is Maria. I think, I mean, you could see some slowdown because obviously as cases progress, people may decide to come in more slowly, but I'd think it is about a couple of things. It's 90% plus, we'll see what's in that last 10% or so. The complexity of those cases that in the form timing regardless of quantum. There are a couple of other things related to the litigation that we are also tracking. One of them is, includes where the intravenous case around the safety important division settlement stands. 38:07 So, we took a few things related to litigation. It's the individual plaintiff claims settlement process for sure. There are few other things that are going to inform our timings, but we think based on all of those different components that we be filing for our first application by late 2023.
Jonathan Arnold:
38:23 Great. Thank you for all that.
Pedro Pizarro:
38:26 Thanks, Jonathan.
Operator:
38:29 Our next question comes from Michael Lapides, Goldman Sachs. Michael, your line is open.
Michael Lapides :
38:34 Hey guys. Thank you for taking my question. Just curious, can you remind me, your EPS compound growth rate that 5% to 7% annual growth, that doesn't incorporate any outcome as part of $5.2 billion cost recovery, is that right?
Maria Rigatti:
38:54 That's correct. So – because it seems now recovery.
Michael Lapides:
38:58 It assumes you're a recovery. So, your rate base growth is still faster than your EPS growth and this – I assume those proceeds, if there were any, regardless of how much, mostly would go to debt reduction and therefore would reduce interest expense?
Maria Rigatti:
39:16 So, yeah, our rate based growth exceeds our earnings growth partly because of the investment to have that growth to the EIX financing plan, but also the debt associated with those wildfire claims payments is a drag on the growth rate. So, to the extent we get recovery and reduce those are able to reduce that, then we will certainly have lower interest expense.
Michael Lapides:
39:39 Got it. Okay. That's super helpful. And just curious, when we think about if you were to get proceeds in, does it all go to kind of pay down debt that's at the utility or would you think about some being used to pay down any capitalization on top of the holding company level?
Maria Rigatti:
39:59 Sure. Well, I think we could do a mix of things, right? There is definitely the dollars of the utility. EIX elected to use prep last year because it is more flexible. If you think about in five years we’ll have an opportunity to call it, reset it, what have you so that we can do a mix of things to the extent we get the recovery.
Michael Lapides:
40:19 Got it. Thanks guys. Much appreciate it, Maria.
Pedro Pizarro:
40:23 Yes, Michael.
Operator:
40:24 Our next question comes from Gregg Orrill, UBS. Gregg, your line is open.
Gregg Orrill:
40:30 Yeah, thank you. I was wondering – sorry if you’ve covered this, I was wondering if you could review the, sort of recovery mechanism how it gets into rate base. The incremental covered conductor miles above that 4,500 level?
Maria Rigatti:
40:52 Sure. So, in GRC track 1, we were authorized for covered conductor, including a balancing account that allows us to go up to the 4,500 mile level. For amounts up above that level, we would file an application and the commission would review the resemblance of that. We're already contemplating going beyond the 4,500 and when we file our – we have about 5,000 plus by the end of 2023. So, there will be an application associated with that. And then in track 4, which is for 2024, we will be proposing additional covered conductor miles and it would be approved as part of track 4.
Gregg Orrill:
41:38 Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
41:42 Our next question comes from Richard Sutherland, JPMorgan Chase. Richard, your line is open.
Richard Sutherland:
41:50 Hi, good afternoon. Thank you for the time. Just wanted to circle back to the financing outlook, now that there is the late 2023 target on the wildfire liability application for cost recovery, in that timeframe, meaning from now through late 2023, what is your capacity to carry incremental claims without associated incremental equity need?
Maria Rigatti:
42:18 So, I think, I'll go back to, sort of the perspective on our balance sheet. Right now we're generally in that 15% to 17% FFO to debt ranges our framework, generally around that 15% level. Going to next year, we would also generally see ourselves moving farther into that, into that band or that range. You know that we've just announced that we had a revision to the estimate and have not had to change our financing plan. 42:44 We're still committed to the financing plan. We disclosed on the Q4 call. As we move into next year and our balance sheet gets stronger yet, we'll have more room and more opportunities or anything that might happen. We absolutely are reiterating our financing plan for 2022, but given all of the fluctuations and volatility in the market, we actually took a term loan out at EIX to give ourselves more time and more flexibility to actually execute on that plan. 43:12 So, we're really focused primarily Richard on flexibility and kind of executing in the best possible way.
Richard Sutherland:
43:23 Understood. So, just mechanically, it's really that 13% to 17% range to keep in mind and I guess, sort of movements within that range versus saying the midpoint is an outlook for now?
Maria Rigatti:
43:34 That's right. I mean, that 15% to 17% range is the range and we're going to use the range.
Richard Sutherland:
43:40 Got it. Very clear. And then hopefully just a clean-up question, saw that 2024 rate base ticked down a little bit, but 2025 is unchanged, just any moving parts to call out behind that revision?
Maria Rigatti:
43:54 Yes. Good question. It actually does not have to do with our capital execution. If you see, our capital plan is pretty – very, very close to where it was when we did our Q4 call. The change in 2024 is related to, I'll say two very broad buckets, mostly around timing, both timing of applications and timing of when we adjust or get authorization to adjust some working capital items that impact rate base. So, you'll see that there is a change in 2024, but 2025 hasn't changed.
Richard Sutherland:
44:25 Great. Thank you for the color.
Operator:
44:29 Our next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Bank of America. Julien, your line is open.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
44:36 Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for the time. So, just coming back to where we started the Q&A here, can we talk a little bit or at the new information during settlement negotiations that led to your desire to settle, just can you elaborate to the best extent possible on just what led to that twist here at this point?
Pedro Pizarro:
44:57 Hey Julien, so I think I covered it pretty well with Jonathan’s question, right, because that question went a bit to what were some of the extraordinary cases and I think that's related to your question, what would have let us to settle cases that we thought were significantly larger, and then, we might have expected based on our prior analysis. So, I'm not sure I have a whole lot to add there, just maybe to reiterate the points and then we set this in the past as well Julien. 45:32 We're nothing about consistent on these calls. And the reality is that each of these cases is an individual case and as you know, case by case by case by case across thousands of cases. And I give a lot of credit to our team. They've done a great job both the internal team and with outside support and trying to get our arms around this [uncertainty comp] [ph] from the very beginning and do mappings of the areas that were impacted and have a sense of what kind of household are in each neighborhood that was impacted? And obviously thinking about the tragic toll on too many families. And so, developing a number of estimates that led to the best estimate. 46:13 Initially, you might recall, we didn't provide you a best estimate. We were only able to provide you a low end of the [indiscernible] range, because we’re still at such a large part of the uncertainty come that we couldn't develop the best estimate as we got more experience under our belt we progressed, and we're able to shift through the best estimate, but to be candid about it, there’s been learnings and surprises along the way and not – if there are no surprises, there are surprises, right, with this kind of complex very large case. 46:43 And so, again going back to what I [indiscernible] in response to Jonathan’s question, we saw, and I think the biggest driver this quarter was seeing a small number of very large cases that were well beyond the scope of what we had and anticipated, making – taking a reserve for those cases that we've now settled taking an additional reserve amount anticipating that we might find more surprises in the rest of the tail that's remaining. And then of course, the second big factor that I mentioned in my prepared remarks was also adjusting for the number of [pointers] [ph] that we're seeing. 47:22 That's about all the color we can give you at this point, Julien, but it's been, I think a very deliberate process on the part of our team [indiscernible] very methodical and it's just to reality of the statistics and frankly the probability curve across thousands and thousands of cases.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
47:43 Pedro, if I can clarify actually, maybe to bifurcate or distinguish from Jonathan’s question. I hear you in addressing, sort of the different settling pattern in the quantum and maybe that's driving a different estimate, but maybe the nuance here and what's intriguing is why settle, right? Why is that triggering a decision to settle? Is it simply just understanding what the mark to market is, and the [indiscernible] gets resolved? Or is there some new information that's driving settlements? If you can distinguish between the two?
Pedro Pizarro:
48:14 Yes. I think the best way to answer your question is, again, we go case by case. Let me [indiscernible] extreme here. We have not come across this one yet, but we saw that there was a particular [indiscernible] who was making a demand that was so out of [less] [ph] field that baffled the logic of settling. I don't think we would settle at that point, right? And that might be a case that we would decide to take the [indiscernible] trial at the end of the day. 48:45 So, I don't think there's any systemic big news or change at saying we have changed our approach to settlements. These really have been bottom up case by case decisions around, okay, we understand the fact better in this case, we understand what arguments we have in our favor, [I’m sure] [ph] arguments might [indiscernible] our favor, we have some sense of where our jury might [announce] [ph], we have a sense of what the continuing costs are in pursuing [indiscernible] litigation, which by the way has its own set of costs, alright, that's just the legal process. 49:22 And further [indiscernible] in the like. And so we continue to make those judgments on a case by case basis there. If your question is asking, is there something else that that you are aware of, or that we're aware of or is there something more systemic or something that is influencing how we think about settling differently from a quarter ago, the answer would be no. 49:45 Does that help with your question, Julien?
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
49:47 Yeah, Absolutely. Thank you for the time and patience.
Pedro Pizarro:
49:52 Thank you, Julien.
Operator:
49:56 That was our last question. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Sam Ramraj.
Sam Ramraj:
50:02 Well, thank you for joining us. This concludes the conference call. Have a good rest of the day and stay safe. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good afternoon, and welcome to the Edison International Fourth Quarter 2021 Financial Teleconference. My name is Missy, and I'll be your operator today. [Operator Instructions] Today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Sam Ramraj, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Ramraj, you may begin your conference.
Sam Ramraj:
Thank you, Missy, and welcome, everyone. Our speakers today are President and Chief Executive Officer, Pedro Pizarro; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Maria Rigatti. Also on the call are other members of the management team. I would like to mention that we are doing this call with our executives in different locations, so please bear with us if you experience any technical difficulties. Materials supporting today's call are available at www.edisoninvestor.com. These include our Form 10-K, prepared remarks from Pedro and Maria, and the teleconference presentation. Tomorrow, we will distribute our regular business update presentation. During this call, we'll make forward-looking statements about the outlook for Edison International and its subsidiaries. Actual results could differ materially from current expectations. Important factors that could cause different results are set forth in our SEC filings. Please read these carefully. The presentation includes certain outlook assumptions as well as reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure. During the question-and-answer session, please limit yourself to 1 question and 1 follow-up. I will now turn the call over to Pedro.
Pedro Pizarro:
Well, thank you, Sam. Today, Edison International reported core earnings per share of $4.59 for 2021, which exceeded the guidance range we provided on last quarter’s call and was higher than $4.52 we had a year ago. We are introducing our 2022 EPS guidance range of $4.40 to $4.70 and we are reiterating our high confidence in our longer-term EPS growth target of 5 to 7% through 2025. Maria will discuss our financial performance and outlook. In my comments today, I want to address 3 key themes that underpin the double-digit total return potential for EIX shares. I want to start with the tremendous progress and results achieved by SCE in recent years in reducing wildfire risk, and what gives us increased confidence of further risk reduction. I will then highlight our clean energy transformation that is underway and the substantial capital investment opportunities over the next few years to support the state’s goals. Lastly, I will discuss our operational excellence culture that will enable us to deliver greater value for customers, investors, employees, and other stakeholders. All these initiatives, combined with our dividend yield, present an attractive total shareholder return potential and that's before even factoring the increase in our price-to-earnings multiple that we believe is merited today by SCE’s wildfire risk reduction and ongoing utility and government wildfire mitigation efforts. I am extremely pleased to say that the 2021 fire season marks the third consecutive year without a catastrophic wildfire associated with SCE’s infrastructure. This is despite another severe wildfire season and intensifying drought conditions in the state. We believe this illustrates the cumulative effect of SCE’s and the state’s wildfire mitigation investments and practices over the last several years, as shown on Page 3 of the presentation. During 2021, the utility continued its strong execution of its wildfire mitigation plan and in many cases exceeded program goals. In its 2022 wildfire mitigation plan update, SCE reiterated that covered conductor is one of the most effective measures to reduce wildfire and PSPS risks in its service area. As shown on Page 4, several factors contribute to our confidence in the covered conductor program. Further SCE is evaluating the potential for additional enhanced mitigation, including undergrounding in certain areas based on unique factors. Reducing wildfire risk will remain a top priority for the company and this will require significant capital investment, including $2.2 billion over the next two years through the GRC track 1 period. Overall, SCE estimates that its mitigation work through December of last year has reduced the probability of losses from catastrophic wildfire by 65 to 70% relative to pre-2018 levels, and please note that this is an increase from the 55% to 65% we reported previously for mitigation work through June 2021. As shown on page 5, SCE expects to further reduce risk with continued grid hardening investments, including deploying an additional 1,100 miles of covered conductor this year. This encouraging risk reduction metric does not take into account significant improvements at the state and federal levels to date and in progress. The governor’s proposed budget continues the trend of increased wildfire suppression and prevention investment, with CAL FIRE’s headcount set to be 45% higher than just five years ago. It also includes continued funding for aerial resources and the investments to date already have made CAL FIRE’s fleet of aircraft, more than 60 aircraft, the largest civil aerial firefighting fleet in the world. The state budget would also add $1.2 billion to the previously approved $1.5 billion Wildfire and Forest Resilience Strategy to support forest health and fire prevention. We were also pleased to see the Biden Administration’s multibillion dollar plan to bolster fire prevention across the West, as 57% of the forest lands in California are owned by the federal government. Protecting against the threat of extreme weather today lays the foundation for the increasingly reliable and resilient grid necessary for the clean energy transition. Through SCE one of the largest utilities in the country, Edison International is leading this transition through its thought leadership and SCE’s programs to accelerate economywide electrification. On Slide 6, I would like to highlight that Edison International has one of the strongest electrification profiles in the industry. Starting with transportation electrification, SCE has the largest programs among U.S. investor-owned utilities, and California is on the leading edge of electric vehicle adoption. In fact, 1 in 7 EVs registered in the U.S. are in SCE’s service area. EV adoption will be critical to achieving California’s climate goals and we estimate this could add over 50 million megawatt hours of incremental electricity consumption by SCE’s customers by 2045. Building electrification is another critical opportunity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and it's the area of the California economy where the least amount of progress has been made to date. Last December, SCE proposed a $677 million program to jumpstart widespread adoption of electric heat pumps in buildings, and then last month, Governor Newsom’s budget proposed almost $1 billion to accelerate building decarbonization. The governor’s proposal is a welcome complement to SCE’s plan and is a meaningful addition to help meet California’s climate goals. Additionally, energy storage will be an important part of an electric-led future to ensure reliability of the grid. As we highlighted previously, SCE is investing $1 billion to construct 535 megawatts of utility-owned storage. The CPUC has already approved this investment and the project is on track to be in service by August. These projects and programs all help to advance the vision set forth in SCE’s Pathway 2045 Analysis. Underpinning the need to electrify the economy is substantial continued investment in the grid through 2045. In late January, the California Independent System Operator released its first ever 20-year transmission outlook, which estimates over $30 billion of transmission investment is needed by 2040 to meet the state’s climate goals. We see this as generally consistent with SCE’s Pathway 2045 work and that identified over $40 billion of transmission investment CAISO-wide. SCE estimates that CAISO’s outlook includes approximately $8 billion of transmission investments in our utility’s service area, which supports the potential for continued long-term rate base growth beyond 2025. The SCE team is going to be fully engaged in the CAISO processes that lie ahead d those processes will turn this conceptual plan into real projects, and they will be focused on bringing ideas to the CAISO table that maximize the value of existing transmission lines, upgrades and new projects that will all make the clean energy transition as affordable as possible for all California ISO customers. In upcoming regulatory proceedings, including 2021 GRC track 4 and the 2025 GRC, SCE will provide greater visibility into the near-term investments that are needed to ensure we remain on-track to help achieve the state’s climate goals. To achieve our ambitious long-term goals, operational excellence is absolutely imperative and it's going to be a constant focus for our team. For over a decade now, SCE has proactively pursued cost-reduction efforts to manage affordability for its customers. This focus on cost management along with broader operational excellence improvement has allowed the utility to absorb some of the rising cost to serve customers, which in recent years has largely been by investments to reduce wildfire risk and strengthen the grid’s reliability. I want to highlight that SCE’s system average rate has grown less than local inflation over the last 20 years, and SCE’s average rate is the lowest among the large California's investor-owned utilities. Last year, SCE advanced its operational capabilities with new systems and new digital tools deployed across the company and these resulted in enhanced data quality, improved power line inspection and maintenance, and enriched abilities to gather and to act on customer feedback. To further our capabilities and focus on operational excellence, we launched an employee-led continuous improvement program late last year. Our employees have been wonderful and they enthusiastically provided thousands of ideas that we believe are going to have real, positive, measurable impact on safety, affordability, and on quality. We expect the ideas that SCE will implement over the next two years will enable delivering greater value for our customers, for our investors, for employees, and for all of our other stakeholders. I'm looking forward to telling you more about the results of this program in the future. With that, I'll turn it over to Maria for her financial report.
Maria Rigatti:
Thanks, Pedro, and good afternoon, everyone. My comments today will cover fourth quarter 2021 results, our capital expenditure and rate base forecasts, our 2022 guidance, and updates on other financial topics. Edison International reported core earnings of $1.16 per share for the fourth quarter. Full year 2021 core EPS was $4.59, which exceeded our guidance range. On Page 7, you can see SCE’s key fourth quarter EPS drivers on the right-hand side. Core EPS increased year-over-year primarily due to higher revenue from the 2021 GRC final decision and income tax benefits from the settlement of California tax audits, partially offset by higher O&M expenses and higher net financing costs. The increase in O&M is due to a variety of miscellaneous items. Net financing costs were higher primarily due to the debt issued throughout 2021 to finance the resolution of wildfire-related claims. At EIX Parent and Other the core loss per share was $0.07 higher than in fourth quarter 2020. This was primarily due to dividends on the preferred equity we issued at the parent in March and November of 2021. Now let’s move to SCE’s capital expenditure and rate base forecasts. As shown on Page 8, we continue to see significant capital expenditure opportunities at SCE driven by investments in the safety and reliability of the grid. In 2022, we project the highest capital spending level in our history, which includes SCE’s $1 billion investment in utility-owned storage to support summer 2022 reliability. As shown on Page 9, our capital forecast results in projected rate base growth of 7% to 9% from 2021 to 2025. We are confident in this range, which is driven by continued investment in wildfire mitigation, infrastructure replacement, and SCE’s programs to accelerate electrification. Page 10 provides an update on the 2022 cost of capital proceeding. The CPUC’s scoping memo separates the cost of capital mechanism into two issues
Sam Ramraj:
Missy, please open the call for questions. [Operator Instructions]
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Jeremy Tonet from JPMorgan.
Rich Sunderland:
It's actually Rich Sunderland, on for Jeremy. Maybe starting off with the guidance drivers. You outlined the $0.10 of cost of capital financing benefits, just want to be clear on that component alone. Does that mean you're expecting more likely to have kind of a steady-state outcome in the 2022 portion of cost of capital? Or I guess, put simply not after you give that back to rate payers? Just any high-level thoughts there would be helpful.
Maria Rigatti:
Sure. Thanks for the question. So the way we developed our guidance is to base it on the current cost of capital. So basically the carryover, no trigger of the mechanism and having that continue through the end of '22 which will be a normal cycle. We know we're in the middle of a proceeding. In that proceeding, the signed commissions ruling actually really closely defined the questions that can be considered. One is, was there an extraordinary event? And then if there was, how to address the 2022 cost of capital? At this point, we're in the middle of that proceeding itself, all of the hearings, et cetera, should be done by the end of March, and then there would be a decision sometime thereafter. So what we're really doing is really just developing it from that basis. To the extent that there are changes from the current cost of capital, we just wanted to lay out for you what the impacts might be on earnings for the year. And so we've separated that into 2 parts. One is the ROE sensitivity and one is the embedded cost of debt and preferred sensitivity. And as we get through the proceeding and we see where we stand, because there can be a really wide continuum of outcomes. It could be no impact all the way to sort of the trigger resetting or something else in the middle. And as we get to understand what that outcome would be, then we can take another look at where we stand over the course of the year, and we can provide an updated guidance.
Rich Sunderland:
Got it. That's helpful color. And then maybe separately, the high and low end of your underground cost ranges on a dollar per mile basis. Could you parse that and maybe speak to, is that targeting a cost reduction or more representative of just the range of activity across your system?
Pedro Pizarro:
So Rich, I think that's been -- what the numbers we showed have been based on prior experience. Let me turn over to Steve Powell, the CEO at SCE, to give more color there.
Steven Powell:
Yes, Pedro, you hit that right. The numbers we're showing are based on our experience over the last number of years, and it's also represented in our wild fire mitigation plan. Those costs certainly aren't things where we're doing it at scale. We are doing undergrounding over the last number of years, it's in the single digits or up to 10 miles. As we look at undergrounding, the numbers show -- our average is a little over $3.5 million per mile. I would expect if we were to do it at scale, and especially if we were looking to do a broader undergrounding plan, as we analyze potential risk reduction, the factors we're looking at there, as we look at egress and the frequency of fires and our PSPS thresholds and what the wins are in a specific location, we're evaluating probably hundreds of miles of opportunities for undergrounding that would be at least a few years out. In that, we'll also consider cost. So we'd be selecting ones that ideally would be lower cost, but it's really driven on the risk side. So that band you see is backwards looking. We still have work to do to figure out how much we could bring those costs down doing them in larger volumes and targeted places where we can manage the cost more effectively.
Pedro Pizarro:
And Rich, one really important thing that Steve has mentioned there is that we're looking at potentially hundreds, but it's not thousands of miles. We continue to see covered conductor as the mitigation of choice for most of our territory and it's just given the terrain that we have, the geography, the specific factors, and so it's really looking at where are there some mirror applications for undergrounding would be the right choice from a risk basis. But again, it's probably hundreds, not thousands.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.
Constantine Lednev:
It's actually Constantine here picking up for Shar. Appreciate the update today. And just as you're moving closer to the wildfire claims resolution and you seem to be back on pace in terms of reduction of outstanding claims. Is there anything incremental you're seeing in terms of pace of settlement? And along those lines, maybe do you have a sense of what constitutes being reasonably close to completion to start filings or discussions with the CPUC?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes. Maybe I'll start and Maria, you can certainly add here. I'll probably start with something you've heard us say before and that it's really hard to forecast timing on this. Now clearly, as each quarter goes by, you've seen the continued progress we've made. So certainly, the uncertainty cone keeps narrowing here, but there's still uncertainty, and that uncertainty includes timing. These cases are not uniform. They're unique, they're case-specific. And so that says it's hard to project or give you insights around the potential pace on this. In terms of what substantial completion might mean or enough volume of this, I don't think we can really define that, but I believe that CPUC would expect us to have pretty good visibility into what the total exposure is going to be. So I think that would mean the vast majority of the cases for a given -- for a given bundle. And so by that, I mean, you could imagine we'll see standing in its own 2 feet, seeing substantial completion of Woolsey cases and taking the Woolsey matter to the CPUC. Separately, you could imagine Thomas and Koenigstein and the mudslides as another bundle. So I don't think we need to think of this as a joint bundle of all '17 and '18 events. But what the logical collection is of cases -- for whatever that logical collection is, Woolsey or Thomas, Koenigstein then we would need to see the vast majority of cases done so we could have a good sense of total liability. Maria, anything you'd add or correct there?
Maria Rigatti:
Something to add, not correct. I'd just say maybe in addition to some of that, it's probably the case for sure that it benefits us to have more clarity as well as to what the quantum is, and just what the types of claims are that we've settled. And could bring that forward and there are fewer open or loose ends when we get to the commission, I think that helps just in terms of the proceeding once it does start. So I think we're weighing all of that as we go forward. It probably doesn't have to have every last person settled, but certainly, we think that there is a benefit to having the vast majority of them settled before we start the process. And I think it's important too to note what Pedro just said is that Thomas and Woolsey are separate events and would have a different set of facts that we would bring forward.
Constantine Lednev:
Certainly. I appreciate that detail. And as we're thinking about the tail end of your CapEx plan or kind of the non-GRC years, can you discuss the magnitude of potential upsides that you're seeing. We've seen the CPUC working on various non-GRC investments like microgrids, risk mitigation and other policy items. Just curious how that's being implemented in your plan, if at all?
Pedro Pizarro:
I mean, I'll give you a very high level answer, which is, as we constructed that 5% to 7% range to 2025, we took a look at the large number of opportunities that we have in the state around electrification, around expansion of the grid, items that once we mentioned, storage. I think as you get until later years, transmission starts being more important. And all of those are supportive then at the upper end of the range. So I don't think we're at a point, certainly this early to say here things that could take us beyond the range, but rather we look at all that set of opportunities as being supportive of that 5% to 7% range.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jonathan Arnold with Vertical Research Partners.
Jonathan Arnold:
Just picking up on the legacy liabilities, Pedro. Is it -- I think it went down from 2.2% to 1.6%. You didn't change the overall accrual. So fair to assume you settled about $600 million in the quarter. And that's on par with the prior 2 quarters. So is there any reason I wouldn't assume that somewhere between 2 and 3 quarters from now, you would be pretty much done with this, absent some big change in the accrual?
Pedro Pizarro:
I go back to the answer I shared with Constantine that -- I think your math is right. In terms of the pace we've experienced, but we don't want to use that to say precisely. So therefore, it X point Y quarters from now if you assume the same rate. Because, again, Jonathan, all of these cases are really unique and specific. And so we don't want to be extrapolating precise timing based on the history we've had. We're working hard. We're pleased with the progress that we're making, but I just can't give you that firm and answer. Sorry, I know it's a little unsatisfying.
Jonathan Arnold:
All right, I Understand. Well, maybe I'll try something that I -- that you do have some control over the timing of. When should we anticipate that you would give your '23 guidance? I know you've just given us '22, but we're now in a more sort of normal rate case cadence presumably, just what would be -- what's the new normal?
Maria Rigatti:
Yes. So Jonathan, really, what we're trying to do is kind of focus on that overall 5-year cycle, or '21 through '25 cycle and give people that visibility on that EPS CAGR over time. I think we'll give our '23 guidance, I think, in the same -- we have the same schedule to give annual guidance that we have in the past. Today is '22, in Q4, we'll give '23. We have started to provide a little bit more visibility into how we think about the long term. So when you do get a chance to look at the slides, you'll see that 2025 now we've developed some of the piece parts for folks to use so they can take that and start to do modeling out on a longer-term basis. But I think that annual look will do on the same schedule we have as in the past.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Angie Storozynski from Seaport.
Angie Storozynski:
I just wanted to -- just one follow-up to that Slide 11 with the remaining claims for 2017 and 2018. When you show that there's 22% of the best estimates still outstanding. Can you tell us if it's roughly the same for Thomas and Woolsey, meaning that it's roughly the same number or percentage wise for both? Or can we expect that since one of them becomes ready for filing sooner?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes. Thanks, Angie, for the question. We have not split that out in how we report it for a number of reasons. So I don't think you can extrapolate from that, which case might get to that CPUC line sooner.
Angie Storozynski:
Okay. And then a bigger picture question. So I understand you're in the midst of your 2022 cost of capital proceeding. We've seen the filings by the consumer advocates with some interesting points being made about no link between the stock performance and the cost of equity, which for an equity analyst is quite an interesting conclusion.
Pedro Pizarro:
Just confirm that you disagree with that, right?
Angie Storozynski:
Yes, I do. I hope so, at least it underpins my job, I think. But also, I mean, you guys are issuing equity to finance growth. And so that cost of equity and the affordability of equity actually plays into your customer rates, et cetera. So I think that you are in a particularly good position to demonstrate the importance of that cost of equity. I mean, we have this -- a number of new members of the commission, very few of the existing ones have gone through the cost of capital proceeding. So far, we have the position of the consumer advocate. So is there anything you can tell us to give us a sense that -- there is this sense of fairness and reasonable at the commission that will end up with a -- again, a reasonable outcome, at least of this '22 cost of capital proceeding?
Maria Rigatti:
So Angie, I mean, all the points that you just made, I think is you'd see reflected in the filings that we've already made. And now the signed Commission's ruling on the 2022 cost of capital question, really made it clear that they want the utilities to go back and file for '23 through '25. And that's, I think, our opportunity. And as you say, a lot of the commissioners haven't been through a cost of capital proceeding before. That's our opportunity to really go back. We're going to be making similar arguments to the ones we made back in August and then just recently in January, but it's really an opportunity for us to underscore how all of this really flows through to customer rates at the end of the day. And so you really need to have a cost -- ROE that's reflective of what the real cost of equity is, but the proceeding itself really gives signal to the market around the jurisdiction itself and that ultimately, in the long term, that's important to affordability. So we are going to making all of those points. I think we probably didn't make many of the points you just made when we did our filing this in January. And we'll proceed from there. Even separately from the proceeding, of course, we have routine discussions with staff and Energy Division where we make all of those same points how costs like this, if they're not handled appropriately, if the decisions aren't appropriate, that they come back and get you at the end of the day, and it all ends up in the customer rates.
Pedro Pizarro:
Well, and I think even more broadly, and Maria, you got it right. But from an even broader perspective, Angie, I think we've seen now over the past number of years that this commission and more broadly, the whole apparatus of government and the state understands the need for financially healthy utilities. And that's been tested, and we've gone through some of the challenges around the wildfire cost recovery framework. We saw legislation passed maybe 10-54 that we think there's a good job addressing that. All that stems from an understanding that the taking financially healthy utilities to do the work that we need to do and ultimately, like Maria said, to minimize customer costs in the long run. And so we would hope and expect that principle will be top of mind for commissioners as they go through the cost of capital proceeding.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs.
Michael Lapides:
Congrats on good guidance. Just curious, speaking of the guidance. When we look out to the out years, meaning kind of 2025, just that there are a handful of things in that. I'm thinking the SCE costs excluded from authorized, that $0.35, but also the $0.20 to $0.30 SCE operating variance that's a benefit. You don't assume -- let's take the $0.20 to $0.30. You don't assume that at some point, maybe future GRC, future regulatory event that gets kind of clawed back or the $0.35 and a lot of that's executive comp, some of its interest then get added back to rates?
Maria Rigatti:
Michael, thanks for the question. So yes, digging out to 2025, and let's separate those 2 buckets, the same way you just did, the operational variances and then the costs excluded from authorized. I would say, we think about those operational variances every year when we give guidance. And it's -- it can have some discrete things in it. You saw in our '22 guidance, we called out a few things, like AFUDC, as well as shareholder cost. But really, it's a lot of different things across the board. It can be what exactly is coming into your capital plan that year in terms of the type of asset. It can be the timing of regulatory proceedings and you have to true up after a regulatory proceeding. So we're actually doing a very, very like detailed look every year and then coming back with the number. As we move out in time, we have visibility into things that will happen over the next -- course of the next several years as well. And that's really what we're thinking about in that number. And so -- and how that might range from a lower number to a higher number. When we think about O&M savings over time, we actually -- for the very reason you said that 2025 year is the first year with a GRC cycle, really not making in a lot of O&M savings. Because we know that the work that we're doing is ultimately going to go back to the benefit of the customer. Same thing on the flip side in terms of the cost excluded from authorized. Look, we're going to make our arguments in every general rate case around things that should get recovered in rates that at least the past key rate cases haven't and recovered in rates. But we're going to push on that for the next rate case, but we're not presuming that that's going to happen. Also, that -- those costs not recovered and authorized, you're right, some of it's legislatively driven. Some of it's the fact that we're the SCE is paying interest expense on those claims payments, as well for claims payments. And we're not making any assumptions right now that, that would go away. We will certainly make claims to recover the cost, but we're not making the assumption right now that we would -- that, that would occur.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Okay. Super helpful. And then, Pedro, one for you. Just trying to think about it, how do you think about the role of hydrogen versus hyper electrification of industrial customers, kind of how you think about the -- I don't want to call it a battle, but it's really going to be a discussion that happens in the state of what's the right way to decarbonize the larger users in the state.
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes. It's a great topic. And I'll start with our Pathway 2045 work, right? If you go back to that, you might recall that -- in that we talk about with the largest part of the emissions reductions coming from clean electricity and using that electricity across the society. But we do point out there that there will be some hard to electrify applications where we will need low carbon fuels like hydrogen. And by the way, that's not all hydrogen, it's the same, right? We're talking about hydrogen made from a clean source and so therefore, probably not from [indiscernible] unless you're assuming carbon capture, which -- my sense is that we also assume there will be some level of carbon capture, but the availability of that probably will -- should be dedicated for places we absolutely need to be using fossil fuels. So with hydrogen, I think it's a lot of excitement about being able to drive down the cost of production from electrolysis. You have the Hydrogen Earthshot at DOE, you have a number of other announcements on that. We are engaged in the work that -- the joint 5-year project that the Electric Power Research Institute and the Gas Technology Institute have going on. It's called the LCRI, the low carbon resources initiative, and that's digging deep into what's the potential for low carbon fuels like hydrogen. And what are some of the technical issues to actually help them work? How do you think about the metallurgy of pipelines, for example, and how much hydrogen can they accommodate and what changes you need for that? So that's kind of a backdrop, to get to the core of your question, I don't think you can sit here and tell you it's going to be these applications that go fully electric and these applications go hydrogen. I think in general, probably some of the heavier duty, more heat consuming processes, industrial processes would be more likely to benefit from hydrogen, perhaps some long-haul transport would be another application that would lend itself to hydrogen. I think when you're looking at applications like light-duty vehicles, that -- it's hard to see that really making sense for hydrogen, because electricity, particularly as battery advances continue, it's just such a much better vehicle, no pun intended for those. So we definitely see some role. Final point to make is just to maybe pick a little bit on your -- I think you used the word competition between the 2. I'm not sure I see as quite as much competition in the sense that if the hydrogen is going to be clean, then chances are, it's going to need to be coming from clean electricity through electrolysis. And so therefore, there's an important role for the electric grid in delivering what may likely be massive amounts of electric power to electrolysis plants that can then deliver the hydrogen into a pipeline. So I think there's still a role for a robust modern grid, and that's the business we're in. So we think it's necessary in the hydrogen side as well.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Ryan Levine with Citi.
Ryan Levine:
What portion of the $8 billion of potential electric transmission highlighted in the prepared remarks, does Edison have right of ways to potentially use? And are there any initiatives today underway to enable those opportunities?
Pedro Pizarro:
I'm going to give you a quick answer, but turn it over to Steve Powell. This is a conceptual plan. It needs to get translated into projects. So I don't think there's a specific as -- or to answer specific as your question, but Steve, take me on that.
Steven Powell:
Yes. No, Pedro, that's right. The conceptual plan, in a lot of cases, is identifying general paths of where projects would end up. As you look at the mix of projects that are identified in there, it is heavily based on new projects that largely wouldn't be followed within the sort of right of first refusal for utilities, given the current framework. There is a lot more work to be done for those sort of conceptual projects and plan to be translated into resource planning processes that are upstream of this, but really into the CAISO's 10-year plans as we move forward. So a lot more work to be done to understand if more and more of the existing system that we own and would have right of first refusal around can be -- how much of that can be managed through upgrades versus how much is going to be new. But I think -- looking back at just the overall opportunity, I think it's important that it really reinforces what our pathway has shown is a large opportunity out there. And now it's a matter of figuring out the most cost-effective ways to deliver it for customers.
Ryan Levine:
Okay. So no right of way is existing, so you have to procure those independently. Am I hearing that correctly?
Steven Powell:
It would depend on the ultimate projects and paths that these translate into. And so some of them may be close to some of our existing right of ways, but there is a lot more work to do to bring more clarity to what those projects ultimately will entail.
Pedro Pizarro:
And that financial, we don't know yet, Ryan. But some of it may be accessible to upgrades.
Ryan Levine:
Appreciate that. And then one clarifying question from earlier. Are there potential undergrounding a few hundred miles in place of or in addition to the current cover conductor miles?
Steven Powell:
Yes. So right now, as we're looking at that, we're focused on the places where we haven't already installed cover conductor. So we've got approximately 3,000 miles of covered conductor installed. As we look forward, we believe that there's thousands more miles that need to be hardened one way or another. And as we do that evaluation, we're going to be looking to figure out where undergrounding might make sense. So the focus right now is on those places where we haven't currently installed covered conductor, because there's a lot more of that need to do.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
So first, just a little detail here. You've got about a diamond there that talks about financing benefits associated with 2022 cost of capital proceeding. Can you elaborate on that what that is? Just -- I understand the COC proceeding. Just what is the $0.10 there?
Maria Rigatti:
Sure, Julien. So typically, the cost of capital proceeding covers a 3-year cycle. You make an estimate at the beginning of that 3-year cycle as to what the cost of debt will be and what the cost of prep will be. Certainly, a whole bunch of that is debt that's already been issued, but you're also using a forecast when you start a 3-year cycle. Over the course of that 3-year cycle, you can start to see those costs diverge from the original forecast. And so it's the benefit that you get, because the actual embedded cost of your debt once you get to sort of the tail end of the cycle is less than what you anticipated at the beginning of the cycle.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. All right. Excellent. And then just if I can, going back to like a high-level question here, just -- as you've answered a lot of the detailed pieces, but I'm just curious, as you look at especially accelerating EV penetration, for instance, amongst other factors. What is the bill inflation percentage that you all are contemplating through the forecast period? And then what is your ability to mitigate that, especially cognizant of the NEM resolution here, et cetera. But really, just sticking with that line of sight of trying to amortize across more kilowatt hours.
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes. I'll give you a couple of thoughts. First, I don't think we've provided any sort of firm estimate out there over the long run of what that inflation will look like or that the bill pressure would look like. We commented that we certainly continue to see some overall pressure in the next few years as we get to the largest bow wave of the wildfire mitigation work. And we do see then our path to returning to a more or call "normal" path in terms of system rate increases and bill increases. That's one part of the answer. The other part of the answer, though, Julien, is that you alluded to, which is that with the push on electrification, that will bring in more kilowatt hours. In my remarks, I mentioned the extent of kilowatt hours that we get at it just from electric vehicles alone through 2045, right? And that -- as you know, we don't earn on those because we have decoupling, which is a good thing. But adding those kilowatt hours to the system will just help reduce rate pressure overall for all customers. So the final part of the answer there, and this is a really important one in policy space. We need to consistently remind our customers and policymakers broadly, that the journey we're on here is not just an electric utility journey. It's an economy-wide journey to get to net 0 carbon. And the benefit of work like our Pathway 2045 analysis is that it showed that the cheapest way for the economy to get there is by using more clean electricity, making more investments in the grid, to move that power around to electrify a lot of the economy. That will put upward pressure on bills, right? And that's not just a pressure coming from the investments being made, maybe offset some by the electrification benefit, but the bill themselves will go up, because consumers will be using more electricity for more things in their life. At the same time, we'll be reducing the amount of gasoline you are using, maybe zeroing that out. You'll be reducing the amount of natural gas that you're using. So you might remember, we mentioned before that we see the average customer spending 1/3 less across your entire energy bill in 2045 in real terms than they do today. They spend more on electricity, they'll spend less on other forms of energy and overall, that's the cheapest way for society to get to net 0. And so that means the conversation around affordability needs to migrate from one that's, frankly, very narrowly focused right now on the electric bill to one that is more thoughtful when looking at the total cost across society and the total cost for the customer to decarbonize. And that may mean that we may need to see some bill increases there a little bit above inflation in the long run in order to have the cheapest approach to get to the net 0 target, which is so important. One other place where this has come up and the -- you might recall, the oral arguments that the prior SCE CEO, Kevin Payne, made last year in the GRC proceeding. He pointed out that affordability also includes not just the climate mitigation part, but climate adaptation, right? And so the costs that are putting pressure on the electric bill now around wildfire mitigation are, we believe, helping us avoid the cost for the whole economy of the aftermath of a catastrophic flyer, right? And so that's also a cost reduction or a benefit to all society that's getting captured through some increase in today's electric bill. I know I went a little farther in the aperture than your question, but I think that's all are interrelated.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Indeed. And just even within that, the effort on covered conductors, do you think that you can bring that to a place in which it doesn't meaningfully contribute to customer bills just given the offsets from insurance or just reduced costs over time?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes, you heard us say we'll continue to work on all pieces of the puzzle here, right? I know Steven is being more focused on how do they continue to deploy covered conductor and possibly some undergrounding as well at the lowest cost possible. We're focused on our operational performance, right? And driving operational excellence and continuing the pathway that we've set for a long time, improving our operations, that means higher reliability, I mean higher, better customer experience, more safety. It also means lower cost, right? And so I think our cost position relative to our peers in California speaks for itself. So we're not just starting a new initiative here. We are continuing a long journey for us that also contributes to being able to do all this as affordable as possible for the customer. But again, as we look at the types of investments that will be needed over the long run for both primary mitigation and climate adaptation, that may well lead to rate increases that are at or maybe even a little bit above -- somewhat above inflation. Hopefully, not the levels we've seen for the last couple of years, those were extraordinary just given the big bow wave of wildfire investment data.
Maria Rigatti:
Actually, Julien, may be just on one thing because you had one specific, I think, question in there about like can we offset some of the costs of the capital plan with lower O&M, specifically insurance. Certainly, our hope is that as we move through time and we can demonstrate to insurance carriers that our risk has been mitigated down, we will see benefit, which would flow directly through to the customer. We're out right now marketing for our next policy year, so we'll see. But we have seen one, we didn't see quite as high a trajectory as we thought perhaps we were going to see when we -- if we went back to the forecast that we put together in 2018 and what we're realizing today. So that's a good thing. And actually, is lower than the forecast we had for now, but it's still high. Our rate online is about 41%. So that's $0.41 on the dollar when we buy insurance. The other thing we're doing around that is not just waiting for the insurance companies just to see the demonstration of risk reduction, but we're also pursuing customer-funded self-insurance, which as we mitigate risk would allow us to take premiums for 1 year and roll them into the next. Basically, the customer would not be out-of-pocket premiums if there were no losses. So we're doing all of those things as well to try and sort of the parallel to the covered conductor cost is potentially the reduction in some of the other risk mitigation efforts.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Paul Fremont with Mizuho.
Paul Fremont:
I guess my first one is, when I look at your equity and rate base assumptions, are they assuming a certain amount of regulatory recovery of wildfire expenses or are they assuming that anything that you've written off is going to be excluded from those assumptions?
Maria Rigatti:
And when you say wildfire expenses, you mean the liabilities?
Paul Fremont:
Yes, yes.
Maria Rigatti:
Yes. We do not assume here that we will be getting recovery on those wildfire liabilities. However, I want to reiterate what I said earlier, we will be filing for a recovery. So for all of the prudently incurred costs that we have, we will go back and ask the commission to allow us to recover that in rates. We have not built that into the forecast.
Paul Fremont:
Okay. So that means anything that would be recovered then, I would assume that would be upside then to your rate base numbers?
Maria Rigatti:
That wouldn't be rate base, Paul. That would -- do you think about recovery -- again, I'm just making sure we're talking about the same thing. You mean recovery of the wildfire liabilities that we've been paying out. That would not typically be something that would be a rate base asset that -- if you think about it's kind of like O&M. It is a big number, depending on what level of the commission is comfortable allowing us to recover. So we would have to think through ways to mitigate customer rate impacts, language in legislation right now that we think would allow us to potentially securitize that over time if we were to recover it. But it's -- I don't think about it as a rate base asset at this point.
Paul Fremont:
I'm just thinking, but it would be earnings accretive or would it be earnings neutral, if you were to recover a portion of that liability through regulatory pursuit?
Maria Rigatti:
If we were to recover a portion of that, like right now, for example, we have interest expense coming through in core earnings associated with the debt that's being used to finance the payment of those claims. So if we were to recover that, then that would come through earnings. You would reverse that and it would come through earnings in the future. The actual liability itself that we wrote off, we wrote that off to noncore.
Paul Fremont:
Great. And then the other question I have is, I think part of the strategy that is being used by your northern neighbor, in terms of undergrounding is trying to use O&M savings that it believes it would be able to achieve on the vegetation management side as an offset to the cost of actually undergrounding its system. Do you see potential O&M savings with your more limited plans to underground?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes. And let me both turn it over to Steve for this one as well, but let me start by saying this is another place, Paul, where it’s really important to remember the difference in terrain and geography. And I think Patti and the team have been very open about just the significant amount of veg management cost to the have PG&A. And so the terrain is much more forced. Our terrain is more grasslands. They have more concerns with trees falling into line. We have more concerns with contact from objects blowing in, right? So that’s where the math has still towards cover conductor in our case. But Steve, what else would you say there?
Steven Powell:
Pedro, the difference is between the terrain and the risk that we face from the types of ignitions that each of us have in our different territories is that huge driver of why the plans look so different. To the extent that we are doing -- that we end up doing more undergrounding, I would expect where we're undergrounding, we would get some O&M savings in those specific areas for not having to do vegetation management and potentially changes to the inspection approach for undergrounding as well. But it would just be for those places where we were doing undergrounding. On the covered conductor side, we still need to keep trees and vegetation. We need to be doing that work because trees falling into covered conductor, if they could take it down, if they are large trees, would be an issue. So over time, we'll learn more about how our O&M and vegetation management practices can evolve and potentially have savings with cover conductor, but we're not just at that point yet. So I'd say that the cover conductor is really cost effective for us and has been -- it's been great to get it out so quickly to reduce the risk upfront. And we'll have opportunities for more undergroundings.
Operator:
That was the last question. I will now turn the call back to Mr. Sam Ramraj.
Sam Ramraj:
Well, thank you for joining us. This concludes the conference call. Have a good rest of the day and stay safe. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good afternoon, and welcome to the Edison International Third Quarter 2021 Financial Teleconference. My name is Michelle, and I will be your operator today. [Operator Instructions] Today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Sam Ramraj, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Ramraj, you may begin your conference.
Sam Ramraj :
Thank you, Michelle, and welcome, everyone. Our speakers today are President and Chief Executive Officer, Pedro Pizarro; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Maria Rigatti. Also on the call are other members of the management team. I would like to mention that we are doing this call with our executives in different locations, so please bear with us if you experience any technical difficulties. Materials supporting today's call are available at www.edisoninvestor.com. These include our Form 10-Q, prepared remarks from Pedro and Maria and the teleconference presentation. Tomorrow, we will distribute our regular business update presentation. During this call, we'll make forward-looking statements about the outlook for Edison International and its subsidiaries. Actual results could differ materially from current expectations. Important factors that could cause different results are set forth in our SEC filings. Please read these carefully. The presentation includes certain outlook assumptions as well as reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure. During the question-and-answer session, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. I will now turn the call over to Pedro.
Pedro Pizarro :
Well, thank you, Sam. And before I start commenting on the quarter, I wanted to note the senior leadership changes that we announced last week. Kevin Payne, SCE's President and CEO, plans to retire on December 1, and this is after 35 years with the company. Kevin's had a profound impact of the utility, most particularly with its customer-centric focus, leading our wildfire risk mitigation efforts and advocating for and advancing the company's clean energy strategy. While I am going to miss my good friend very much, I am delighted with our deep bench. Steve Powell will succeed Kevin as President and CEO; and Jill Anderson, currently Senior Vice President of Customer Service, will succeed Steve as EVP of Operations. Promoting Edison talent will ensure a seamless transition, and I believe that Steve and Jill both bring exceptional experience to their new roles. I know that a number of you have already met Steve and Jill and many of you will have an opportunity to meet them next week at EEI's financial conference as well. Turning to the quarter. Today, Edison International reported core earnings per share of $1.69 compared to $1.67 a year ago. This comparison is not meaningful because during the quarter, SCE recorded a true-up for the final decision in Track 1 of its 2021 general rate case, which is retroactive to January 1. Reflecting the year-to-date performance and our outlook for the remainder of the year, we are narrowing our 2021 EPS guidance range to $4.42 to $4.52. We are also reiterating our longer-term EPS growth target of 5% to 7% through 2025. Maria will discuss our financial performance in detail in her report. Now starting with past events. SCE today announced 2 updates related to the 2017 and 2018 wildfire and mudslide events. Page 3 in the slide deck provides an overall summary. First, SCE revised the best estimate of potential losses to $7.5 billion from $6.2 billion. As we have mentioned in our continuing communications on this topic, we evaluate the best estimate quarterly. As part of the ongoing and very complex litigation process, we diligently consider new information that arises to provide all of you with our best estimate. Based on additional information across a broad set of claim types collected during the quarter, along with an agreement with the CPUC Safety and Enforcement Division, or SED, which I'll talk about in a minute, SCE revised its estimate of the total potential losses. While the total estimate increased this quarter, SCE continued to make meaningful progress, settling claims and completed approximately $485 million of settlements. SCE has now settled about 70% of the estimated exposure for the 2017 and 2018 events. I want to emphasize that we do not need equity above our previously disclosed 2021 financing plan to fund the higher estimated losses. Maria will address this topic later on the call. Second, the utility reached an agreement with the SED to resolve its investigations into the 2017 and 2018 wildfire and mudslide events and 3 other 2017 wildfires. As we have previously disclosed, the SED has conducted investigations to assess SCE's compliance with applicable rules and regulations in areas affected by the Thomas, Koenigstein, and Woolsey fires. It was possible that CPUC would initiate formal enforcement proceedings to pursue fines and penalties for alleged violations though we were unable to estimate the magnitude or the timing as part of our best estimate. The recently executed agreement, which is subject to CPUC approval, would resolve that uncertainty. The agreement has a total value of $550 million, composed of about $110 million fine, $65 million of shareholder-funded safety measures and an agreement by SCE to waive its right to seek cost recovery for $375 million of uninsured claims payments out of the $5.2 billion total in the current best estimate. In the SED agreement, SCE did not admit imprudence, negligence or liability with respect to the 2017 and 2018 wildfire and mudslide events and will seek rate recovery of prudently incurred actual losses in excess of available insurance other than for the $375 million waived under the SED agreement. While SCE disputes a number of the alleged violations reaching an agreement puts one additional uncertainty behind us. Let me now address the Southern California wildfire season. SCE continues to make solid progress on the execution of its wildfire mitigation plan or WMP and its PSPS action plan. SCE has installed over 1,000 miles of covered conductor year-to-date, bringing the total to 2,500 miles since program inception. Over the past 3 years, the utility has replaced about 25% of its overhead distribution power lines in high fire risk areas with covered conductor. SCE has also performed another annual cycle of inspections in high fire risk areas, supplemented with additional inspections targeting dry fuel areas. This resulted in approximately 195,000 assets, undergoing 360-degree inspections in SCE's high-power risk area. SCE also continues to be on track to meet most of its goals outlined in our WMP by end of the year. And the scorecard is shown on Page 4 of the slide deck. All these ongoing mitigation actions continue to strengthen our confidence in our utilities overall improved risk profile with respect to wildfires. Turning to Page 5. We highlight the metrics we showed you last quarter, which are proof points of how SCE believes it has reduced wildfire risk for its customers. We have added an additional metric. Looking back at past wildfire events and considering the utility's current PSPS protocols, we can't quantify the damage that would have been prevented. Using red flag warning days as a proxy for when the utility would use PSPS today, SCE would have prevented over 90% of the structures damaged or destroyed for fires larger than 1,000 acres associated with its infrastructure. However, we think it is much more important to assess how much total risk SCE has reduced on a forward-looking basis. And we have summarized this on Page 6. In total, considering physical mitigation measures such as covered conductor, operational practices such as treat removals, inspections and vegetation management and the use of PSPS. SCE estimates that it has reduced the probability of losses from catastrophic wildfires by 55% to 65% relative to pre-2018 levels. This is based on a recent analysis using risk management solutions, industry-leading wildfire model and SCE's data related to actual mitigations deployed and mitigation effectiveness, which enabled us to quantify the risk reduction. While the risk can never be fully eliminated, the utility does expect to further reduce risk and to decrease the need for PSPS to achieve this risk reduction with continued grid-hardening investments. As California continues to transition to a clean energy economy, maintaining and even improving system reliability becomes essential, particularly with greater reliance on electricity. SCE worked closely with the Governor's office, Cal-ISO, the CPUC, customers and many stakeholders to avoid rolling outages this past summer when the state and the entire West once again faced record temperatures. Major California energy agencies, including the Kaisa, California Energy Commission and CPUC have indicated that additional capacity is needed to support summer 2020 -- summer 2022, pardon me, under extreme conditions like the heat, drought and wildfires we have seen repeatedly over the past several years. To accelerate construction of new capacity, the governor issued an emergency proclamation that requested the CPUC to work with load-serving entities to accelerate construction of energy storage for 2021 and 2022. To this end, in addition to securing over 230 megawatts of additional capacity from third parties, SCE plans to construct about 535 megawatts of utility-owned storage for this upcoming summer. This is a material increase in incremental capacity to mitigate the risk of statewide customer outages for summer 2022, caused by extreme weather events and continued drought conditions. While the governor signed the largest climate package in state history, which included 24 bills and over $15 billion in climate, clean energy and wildfire preparedness funding, there is still an ongoing need for a lot more to be done. So I would like to highlight a paper that we recently released and it's entitled Mind the Gap, Policies for California's Countdown to 2030. This policy paper is Edison International's latest contribution to identify policies and actions needed to help California reduce emissions and decarbonize the economy. In the paper, we identified state and federal policy recommendations needed for California to meet its 2030 climate target, which is a foundational way point for the states to achieve its goal to the decarbonize its economy by 2045. While California has made progress in reducing GHG emissions, closing the gap between the current trajectory and its 2030 goal requires a significant acceleration of effort. It means quadrupling the average 1% annual reduction in GHG emissions achieved by the state since 2006, quadrupling that to 4.1% per year between 2021 and 2030. That's a tall order, but it's feasible. It will require market transforming policies and incentives to advance critical areas, such as decarbonizing the power supply, preparing the grid for shifts in usage and increasing demands and electrifying transportation and buildings. As the only all electric investor-owned utility in California, SCE is well positioned to lead this transition. We will continue to work in close partnership with policymakers and stakeholders to identify ways to improve funding, planning, standard setting and other approaches to successfully achieve the equitable and affordable transition to a clean energy economy. To emphasize affordability, our analysis shows that an electric led transition is the most affordable pathway since the greater efficiency of electric motors and appliances will reduce customers' total costs across all energy commodities by 1/3 by 2045. Edison International is committed to achieving net zero GHG emissions across Scopes 1, 2 and 3 by 2045. And this covers the power SCE delivers to customers as well as Edison International's enterprise-wide operations, including supply chain. This all continues our alignment with the broad policies needed to address climate change and ensure a resilient grid. We will also continue to engage with state, national and global leaders to advance the clean energy transition, which is why today, I am joining you by phone from COP26 in Glasgow, Scotland, where am representing both Edison and EEI. And with that, Maria will provide her financial report.
Maria Rigatti :
Thank you, Pedro, and good afternoon, everyone. My comments today will cover third quarter 2021 results, our capital expenditure and rate base forecast and updates on other financial topics. Edison International reported core earnings of $1.69 per share for the third quarter 2021, an increase of $0.02 per share from the same period last year. As Pedro noted earlier, this year-over-year comparison is not particularly meaningful because SCE recorded a true-up for the final decision in its 2021 general rate case, and that's retroactive back to January 1. On Page 7, you can see SCE's key third quarter EPS drivers on the right-hand side. I will highlight the primary contributors to the variance. To begin, SCE receives a final decision in the 2021 GRC during the third quarter because first and second quarter results were based on 2020 authorized revenue, a true-up was recorded during the quarter for the first 6 months of 2021. This true-up is reflected in several line items on the income statement for a net increase in earnings of $0.35. The components are listed in footnote 3. Higher 2021 revenues contributed $0.55 and including $0.50 related to the 2021 GRC decision, $0.04 for CPUC revenues related to certain tracking accounts and $0.01 to FERC. O&M had a positive variance of $0.28 and mainly due to the establishment of the vegetation management and risk management balancing accounts, partially offset by increased wildfire mitigation costs due to the timing of regulatory deferrals in the third quarter of 2020. Depreciation had a negative variance of $0.20, primarily driven by a higher asset base and a higher depreciation rate resulting from the 2021 GRC decision. Income taxes had a negative variance of $0.41. This includes $0.39 of lower tax benefits related to balancing accounts and the GRC true-up, which are offsetting revenue and have no earnings impact. At EIX Parent and Other, the loss per share was $0.09 higher than in third quarter 2020. The primary driver was preferred dividends on the $1.25 billion of preferred equity issued at the parent in March of this year. Now let's move to SCE's capital expenditure and rate base growth forecast. As shown on Page 8, we have updated our capital forecast primarily to reflect the recently announced utility-owned storage investment. As Pedro mentioned, SCE filed an advice letter for cost recovery of $1 billion of capital spending to construct about 535 megawatts of utility-owned storage. SCE is seeking expedited approval of the advice letter to maximize the likelihood of the projects meeting their expected online dates for the incremental capacity needed for summer 2022. These projects are a prime example of the essential role utilities can play in quickly ensuring California has a safe, reliable and clean electricity supply. We increased our 2022 capital expenditure forecast by approximately $900 million and lowered the forecast somewhat for 2023 through 2025 because these storage projects accelerate some, but not all of the capacity we previously forecasted in those years. The net increase in the high end of the capital forecast for 2021 through 2025 is approximately $500 million. As shown on Page 9, we have also updated our rate base forecast to reflect the storage investments I just mentioned. This is the primary driver of the increase to the 2022 through 2025 rate base forecasts. For 2021, we also fine-tuned the forecast to reflect adjustments related to wildfire mitigation tracking accounts following the implementation of the 2021 GRC decision and quarter end estimates of the spending related to these accounts. The results of these updates is a reduction to the 2021 rate base of $300 million. Overall, these updates result in a projected rate base growth rate of 7% to 9% from 2021 to 2025. Page 10 provides an update on several major approved and pending applications for recovery of amounts and regulatory assets. This will result in significant incremental cash flow to SCE over the next few years. SCE expects to collect over $1.4 billion in rates between now and 2024 related to already approved applications. About half of that balance will be recovered in 2022. For the 3 pending applications shown in the middle of the slide, assuming timely regulatory decisions, SCE expects to collect another $844 million by the end of 2023. Lastly, we show the remaining expected securitizations of AB 1054 capital expenditures. The utility recently received a final decision in its second securitization application. This will allow SCE to securitize $518 million of wildfire mitigation capital expenditures. SCE expects to complete the securitization in Q4 of this year or Q1 2022. The securitizations, along with the rate recovery of the other regulatory assets will allow SCE to pay down short-term debt and strengthen our balance sheet and credit metrics. Turning to Page 11. During the quarter, SCE filed an application to establish its CPUC cost of capital for 2022 through 2024 and reset the cost of capital mechanism. SCE is requesting an ROE of 10.53% with resets to its cost of debt and preferred financing, which would keep customer rates unchanged. The utility's alternative request to maintain its ROE at 10.3% and reset the cost of debt and preferred would reduce customer rates by about $50 million in 2022. When SCE filed the cost of capital request in August, it paused any other filings related to the trigger mechanism. Last week, SCE was directed by the CPUC to file the information that would have normally been provided in those other filings. The next step from here is that the commission will issue a scoping memo to outline the issues and procedural schedule. Turning to guidance. Pages 12 and 13 show our 2021 guidance and the preliminary modeling considerations for 2022. As Pedro mentioned earlier, we are narrowing the 2021 EPS guidance range to $4.42 to $4.52. Turning to Page 14. We see an average need of up to $250 million of equity content annually through 2025. The specific annual amounts will depend on the level of spending within our capital plan for that year. The significant new investment of $1 billion of utility-owned storage considerably accelerates the timing of the capital investment program and increases the overall opportunity as noted earlier. To fund this growth, which is well above the high end of the capital spending range previously disclosed for next year -- equity content securities from the 2023 through 2025 period into 2022. The 2022 equity need will be in the range of $300 million to $400 million, and we will provide more specifics on the financing plan when we provide 2022 EPS guidance on the fourth quarter 2021 earnings call. Additionally, let me reiterate Pedro's comment that the SED Agreement and update to the best estimate of potential losses associated with the 2017 and 2018 wildfire and mudslide events do not require equity above the levels previously announced in our 2021 financing plan. Consistent with our prior disclosure, we plan to issue securities with up to $1 billion of equity content to support investment-grade rating. In closing, I want to underscore the important role that SCE plays in ensuring safety and resiliency. This can be seen in the ongoing investment in risk-reducing wildfire mitigation as well as utility-owned storage to enhance near-term reliability. These investments are indicative of the longer-term opportunity associated with meeting customer needs and clean energy objectives and gives us confidence in reiterating our long-term EPS growth rate of 5% to 7% for 2021 through 2025. That concludes my remarks.
Sam Ramraj:
Michelle, please open the call for questions. [Operator Instructions]
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Jeremy Tonet from JPMorgan.
Jeremy Tonet:
First question here. Just wondering, how does the safety enforcement division agreement impact the settlement process for those remaining claims, if at all? And then do you have any updated thoughts on when you would be able to file for recovery here?
Pedro Pizarro :
Yes. So let me take both of those. We don't really see any impact that the SED settlement will have -- the SED Agreement will have on settlement activity. And importantly, you heard me say, we didn't admit any claims there of ourselves of imprudence or the like. In terms of timing for cost recovery that continues to be uncertain because we really need to work our way through a substantial portion of the claims in each of the events. We could potentially get to Thomas and Koenigstein on one track and separately on Woolsey, but I think we need to get through the bulk of the claims in each of the events before we would be able to go file with PUC and as I've said in prior calls, it's just really difficult to handicap the timing. Now we’ve made good progress. And as I mentioned, we’ve worked our way to something like 70% of the claims but it’s difficult to handicap when exactly will complete that process.
Q – Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. That’s helpful. And then I just wanted to pivot a little bit here, and a lot of talk about resiliency investment potential. Just wondering if you could provide, I guess, updated thoughts on what the total opportunity set could look for, for capital investments and resiliency investments?
A – Pedro Pizarro :
Yes. I would point you back to the rate base forecast that we provided, the 5-year view and say that elements like the storage project that we just announced is supportive of that range we painted. So you heard us reaffirm that view of when we translated into earnings or EPS growth 5% to 7% EPS growth coming from that. And so we would view the opportunity set us falling within that range. The storage project shows you that sometimes they can be needs that pop up sooner than we might think and the ability to step in and take a meaningful action that will help the state with its resiliency and reliability in case that next summer ends up being one with extreme weather, just like the last couple of summers have been. It's just one indication that sometimes you can be called on to take these steps more quickly or in a large quantum like you see with a storage project. But I would say that we would continue to see the opportunities falling within the range that we provided. Maria, anything you would say differently there?
A – Maria Rigatti :
No, I think that we have -- we covered the waterfront in that range, Jeremy, we think about resiliency from the perspective of additional wildfire mitigation. We think about resiliency from the perspective of storage, building electrification because we know we have to pursue those sorts of investments. We're going to get to those GHG emissions reductions. So I think that full range is covered in the capital forecast that we've laid out for you.
Operator:
Our next caller is Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.
SharPourreza :
Just -- maybe just bridging today's disclosures to your equity needs. So with the new estimates for the aggregate wildfire liability going up by 1.3% and the CPUC agreement to not seek recovery of portion of that. The -- just on the reiterated equity of $1 billion, is that for the current plan for '25, i.e., does the timing of paying out the claims impact that equity? And kind of related, Pedro, why settle now if you feel strong enough about prudence ahead of seeking recovery?
A – Pedro Pizarro :
Yes. Let me take your last question first, and then Maria can fill in on the equity piece. I refer again to my prepared remarks here. The SED has powers and responsibility to do investigations. There's always uncertainty when you go into those processes, there's uncertainty as well in terms of how the CPUC will ultimately view the facts. We -- as I mentioned, don't agree with a number of the claims, but we recognize that there's a process here. And we believe it was a thoughtful -- a prudent thing for us to do to put one more uncertainty behind us. And we therefore feel that the settlement is a way to do that. And so that's really the why now an opportunity presented itself to work with SED. And you see the makeup of the pieces here. We don't see that interfering with our ability to go seek cost recovery for prudently incurred expenses other than for the $375 million that were set aside in the settlement. And so again, it's frankly all about understanding that there's a lot of uncertainty and sometimes it's rational and kind of the right thing to do to do something that maybe we might not have agreed with overall in the different circumstances. But in this case, by entering the settlement and working constructively with SED, we can put that uncertainty behind us. Maria, do you take the equity piece?
Maria Rigatti :
Sure. So Shar, we talked a bunch before about our 2021 financing plan and the need to issue up to $1 billion of equity content securities. And that was really to support the 15% to 17% FFO to debt framework that we have at the company. And so as we assess the change in the reserve level, we think that, that $1 billion equity content in 2021 still supports our overall financing framework objective. And we've been pretty measured in how we approach issuing that additional equity or equity content securities. At the same time, SCE does issue debt to make claims payments. So if you think about the EIX financing plan that's in support of the metrics and then SCE's cash flow is tied to sort of when they issue debt to pay the claim. At that level, the SCE level, they are basically pacing their financing plan along the same lines as when they make claims payments. I think when you think about the equity requirement that we have for this year, we've already done $1.25 billion of that preferred financing to get a certain amount of the equity content, and we'll continue to evaluate market conditions as we undertake the balance of the program.
Shar Pourreza :
Got it. And then just lastly for me, just on thoughts on the CapEx and rate base growth from 24% to 25%. There's like a significant step-up in the expectations on Slide 8 with sort of the range case staying flat from 23%. What is included in that top end of that CapEx on the slide? Any color on what is covered under the GRC versus incremental programs like reliability storage spending in ‘22?
A – Maria Rigatti :
Sure. And we cut out just a tiny bit at the end, at least for me, but I think I got your question, Shar. So as you move out in time, obviously, in the front end, we have authorized -- we have the 2021 GRC decision. Now harking back to the utility on storage. You can have things happen even in the near term that increase your capital expenditure opportunities. But as you move out to '24 and '25, I think there are a few things going on. One, 2024 is a year in this rate case cycle that we haven't yet gotten authorization for us. So while it might look a lot like the attrition mechanism that's embedded in 2021 and '22 and '23, we do know there are some budget based approaches that we can use for wildfire mitigation. So we'll be focused on that and that can expand the range. If you look out beyond that, 2025 is actually a new rate case cycle. And so things like ongoing wildfire mitigation, but as we start to get back potentially to more infrastructure replacement and the like, that could drive the wider range that you see in the back end. In addition, there are opportunities potentially to file applications outside of the general rate case proceedings. And so all the things that I think Pedro mentioned earlier around are there things around greenhouse gas emissions reductions on the path to 2045 -- areas around transportational education or building electrification or more energy storage or transmission, those are all things that move the range up and down.
Operator:
Our next caller is Steve Fleishman with Wolfe.
Steve Fleishman :
Just, I guess, in terms of the reserve for the wildfire claims, could you maybe explain as best as possible, why the number went up and this has happened a couple of times and why we should assume it’s not going to happen more?
A – Pedro Pizarro :
Yes. Thanks, Steve. And I think we covered it a bit in the prepared remarks, but it's settle worth doubling down on. Simply put, the more claims we go through, the more settlements we do, the more we learn. And I would hope that, that uncertainty band continues to narrow. As I mentioned, we now process around 70% of the exposure. And so we have been testing quarterly to see whether there are new pieces of information, more detail in terms of specific claims that are waiting down the pipe, et cetera, that would call for a need to change of reserves. We did not need to do that the prior quarter as we got to this quarter, we had enough new information in hand that this was the right thing to do, the appropriate thing to do under GAAP was to make the reserve adjustment. I would -- as we say in our disclosures, right, we're providing you the best estimate. There is uncertainty around that best estimate. At the end, we might find the things yet higher again. You might find that things end up lower than this. But I would hope that as more time goes on, and again, as we get more of the volume behind us, that picture will continue to sharpen. That's probably about the best I can do here, Steve. And I realize that would be great if we could provide more chapter and verse on what drove it, but given the active litigation that we have going on, that's challenging to do. Maria, anything you say differently or Adam Umanoff, if you want to come on the line from a legal perspective, feel free. Okay.
A – Maria Rigatti :
No, I think, Pedro, you covered up.
Shar Pourreza :
And so just a related question on the SED settlement portion. So on the one hand, you agreed not to seek $375 million. On the other hand, that would imply that, theoretically, you might seek recovery of a lot of the other cost of this, which obviously is not assumed in your plan. So even though on the surface that seems like a negative, is it possible to read this is that you still have a claim and potential to seek recovery of these costs for some portion of it?
Pedro Pizarro :
Yes. Pretty consistent in saying all along that our plan expectation is to seek recovery for prudently incurred costs. For purposes of striking the settlement and removing this uncertainty, we agreed to set aside that $375 million. But importantly, as I said earlier, we're not admitting to imprudence, we're not admitting to negligence. We're preserving every right to go and seek cost recovery. I can't tell you today the precise figure for which we'll see recovery because we need to continue -- complete investigations. I think I said this in prior quarters. Believe it or not, it's still true that I believe we still don't have our hands on some pieces of equipment because they're still being held by fire agencies. And so -- and that's just as part of the process. But our expectation is that there are certainly, a number of strong arguments where we bring -- be able to bring to the table, and we'd expect to seek recovery for everything that we believe we should seek recovery for. Now the reason that you're not seeing that level of, I'll say, confidence show up in adjusting the reserves to include the assumption of recovery, is that since these are 2017 and 2018 events, and the only CPUC precedent that exists prior to the time frame of AB 1054 is the President of the San Diego Gas and Electric case under GAAP, we're really not able to assume any CPUC recovery. That's it, you see that we've continued to assume recovery from FERC for the same set of facts. And so that, I think, points to our sense that recovery would be appropriate based on the facts. We can't assume it from the CPUC based on the San Diego Gas and Electric precedent, but we will plan to make our case. And we’ve said before also that we believe to the CPUC’s determination in the San Diego case. We’ve seen consistent with what we understood the facts to be in that case. So while AB 1054 provides us a strengthening of the framework, we do believe that we have the ability to go along to even prior AB 1054 to make our case for just a reasonable cost recovery based on facts, and we believe we’ll have those facts here.
Operator:
Ryan Levine from Citi.
Q – Ryan Levine :
I guess, during the quarter, it looked like received about $400 million of cash from the Morongo transmission asset for use of the asset for about 30 years. Are there any other similar opportunities in the portfolio to raise capital to help offset some of these equity needs?
A – Maria Rigatti :
Ryan, it’s Maria. Yes, so that actual transaction has been part of that project for many, many years. And the trigger for it was when the project was completed and became commercial. So that was the genesis of that $400 million, and you’re right, it did happen over the summer. We booked -- I think we’ve talked a little bit about this before in terms of just the overall portfolio. The things that SCE owns, basically, they’re really customer assets and so the opportunity to sell a bunch of assets isn’t really available to us in the sense that you’re talking about. I think the – from time to time, people have asked about real estate and the like, but there’s really not an opportunity in this portfolio.
Q – Ryan Levine :
And then in the prepared material, it was referenced at the settlement process for Woolsey and TKM increased in pace, which helped drive the increased estimate. What’s the current outlook from the pace from here for the settlement process?
A – Pedro Pizarro :
Well, I think that’s what I touched on earlier, right? We continue to work really diligently on this. But Ryan, it’s just really hard for us to forecast when we will be substantially complete with it. So the good news is there’s -- we’ve mentioned this in prior calls. There’s structure processes in place for both the Thomas, Koenigstein and Woolsey cases, these are allowing us to work our way through a good volume of these cases every month but just really difficult to handicap what that means in terms of ultimate time.
Q – Ryan Levine :
Okay. And then last one, as you continue to implement the cover conductor plan, are you noticing any improvement in the cost per mile as the plan is implementing?
A – Maria Rigatti :
I think we’ve been pretty constant around the cost per mile. I mean it’s -- we haven’t seen big increases, but we haven’t seen decreases either. I think we actually got it pretty spot on when we may be an initial estimates.
Operator:
Our next caller is Michael Lapides from Goldman Sachs.
Q – Michael Lapides :
Just a little bit of a macro question, which is your proposing as you did in the GRC covered conductors. Your neighbor to the north is proposing kind of more the undergrounding program. I haven’t seen anything material different out of SED in a while. Just curious, do you think there is a need for a piece of follow-on legislation where the state develops a formal multiyear maybe more multi-decade kind of similar to like what Illinois has with gas distribution or what Florida has with storm hardening to help kind of think through both the time line, the pace of investment, the cost recovery and kind of the broader state strategy in terms of doing things for wildfire mitigation and prevention.
A – Pedro Pizarro :
Yes. That’s an interesting question, Michael. So I’ll give you my quick reaction to that, which is I don’t think we need legislation for that. I actually say that in many ways, AB 1054 provided the framework further already, right, because it’s set up the whole wildfire mitigation plan process. It has reviewed by OAIS, enhanced ratification by the CPUC in addition of the state budget this year included a line item for an outside consultant who is advising the governor’s office. And it’s actually working with the utilities -- frankly speaking, become a good venue for conversation and comparing of notes in addition to the work that we do, interfacing directly with our peers or the other utilities. But ultimately, I view the wildfire mitigation plan framework as the place where utilities are bringing updated information and new ideas about what tools they should be using to prevent fires and then ultimately, that feeds into the ramp in GRC processes. The other reason that’s my reaction, Michael, is that this is something that’s important in the WMP framework. The reality is that each of the utilities have fairly different territories. I mean from the outside, it looks like it’s all California, right? But PG&E has 70,000 square miles. We have 50,000, Santiago has a smaller territory. But even if you look at PG&E versus ourselves, and I have mentioned this in prior calls, the territory for PG&E, the high-fire risk area territory includes a lot more geography that’s more heavily forested. And so for example, for them, they -- as we understand it, from our discussions with them, they see a lot higher probability of ignition from trees falling into lines, those could be trees well outside of the vegetation management zone, the [indiscernible] streaming zone. In Edison’s case, much of the high fire risk area is not forest, it’s Chaparral, it’s Grasslands. There’s a much higher probability of ignition throughout the Edison area for emission from context from objects, stuff flowing into the lines. And so that helps give a little bit of an insight into why for PG&E as they run the math. And I think generally, we’re all using the same math equation but the variable -- the values of the variables are different, right? And so as we look at the cost benefit analysis for undergrounding versus cover conductor or other tools, my understanding is that trees falling in drives a lot of the incremental benefit from undergrounding. In our case, we see that covered conductor provides significant risk reduction adding much lower all-in cost. In addition, in SCE’s territory since we had already gone through a pole-loading program that led to pole replacements, that means that a lot of our covered conductor installations, we don’t have to go out and replace the pole, right? And so that takes out another cost increment that a utility might have if they need to not only replace the wires, but also replace the post handout. That’s a little long-winded. The bottom line on that is that we have fairly different territories, different needs. We’re comparing notes. I think we used to have seen fundamental concepts, but the values you stick in to the equation are leading to different results for each of us. But we’re staying connected, right? And to the extent that PG&E continuous needs to learn more and see different results underground and we could potentially see more miles coming to scope for undergrounding for Edison. So we certainly continue to learn there. Yes, Maria?
A – Maria Rigatti :
And Michael, just one more thing since you’re asking about it from sort of a macro perspective. While legislation to help the utilities might be something that’s already been addressed in we do keep an eye on and definitely would support additional legislation that really addresses things like land management and forest management and home hardening and development in the Woolsey because those are things that are going to have to be addressed if we really want to have a long-term mitigation to this issue.
Operator:
Jonathan Arnold from Vertical Research.
Jonathan Arnold :
Just to make sure I understand these numbers on the accrual correctly. Is this $550 million settlement. That's now in the best, that's part of the increase in the best estimate. Is that correct?
Maria Rigatti :
Yes. So there are 3 components to the $550 million, Jonathan, there is $110 million that’s payment to the general fund, there’s $65 million of mitigation activity that we’ll undertake, and there’s that $375 million of foregone recovery.
Q – Jonathan Arnold :
So I should think about that is part –
A – Maria Rigatti :
Because we hadn’t taken – because we haven’t taken a regulatory asset against the $375 million, that has already been part of our overall cost of the events of 2017 and 2018.
Q – Jonathan Arnold :
So that’s part of the $7.5 billion best estimate effectively, all of it.
A – Maria Rigatti :
Yes, all of it.
Jonathan Arnold :
But it's not part of the resolved. Is it all considered like unresolved from a perspective of the difference between the $7.5 billion and $2.2 billion?
Maria Rigatti :
Well, in terms -- it's all in that number, the $7.5 billion. In terms of cash flows, obviously, we have different time frames around which we have to make payments in the general fund, and we have to make the mitigation investments. So those cash flows haven't gone yet. I think your question is the cash flow.
Jonathan Arnold :
And my question is, if the CPUC approves the settlement, will the $2.2 billion of remaining expected losses effectively going down by 550 because that will now be resolved or at least no longer unpacked?
Maria Rigatti :
No. The $2.2 billion remaining will go down as we make actual cash payments for settlement or payment to the general fund or mitigation payments.
Jonathan Arnold :
Okay. So that's still –
A – Maria Rigatti :
That's for the future, yes.
Pedro Pizarro :
So just to be really clear, the SED is viewed as resolved, not unresolved.
Q – Jonathan Arnold :
It’s viewed as resolved. Okay. Pending approval.
A – Pedro Pizarro :
Obviously, it’s pending approval, but I think for purposes of the $6.2 billion versus $7.5 billion.
Operator:
Thank you. Julien Dumoulin Smith from Bank of America.
Q -:
If I can just review the fact that here, I just want to make sure we're crystal clear about the equity needs here and the moving pieces here. So in the remarks, you specifically called out the '21 financing plan does not require incremental equity. And then you also kept intact the incremental equity from '22 to '25. I just want to understand how that fits together considering the fine piece and considering -- well, I'll leave it open ended. Just can you rehash that quickly?
Julien Dumoulin Smith :
If I can just review the fact that here, I just want to make sure we're crystal clear about the equity needs here and the moving pieces here. So in the remarks, you specifically called out the '21 financing plan does not require incremental equity. And then you also kept intact the incremental equity from '22 to '25. I just want to understand how that fits together considering the fine piece and considering -- well, I'll leave it open ended. Just can you rehash that quickly?
Maria Rigatti :
Sure. Absolutely. And I think, Julien, you know that we've been really measured and in the approach that we've taken to issuing additional equity and equity content securities and we've been watching the cash flows and the like. And in our 2021 financing plan, we did envision that up to $1 billion of equity content. And so as we thought about and assess the change in the reserve level, we were looking at what we had already announced as our 2021 plan, and we think that it's still consistent even with the reserve level changing with the objective of improving credit metrics over time with that focus on the 15% to 17%. Now the equity that we've discussed for next year and that we'll discuss in more detail when we get to the Q4 call, that really relates to sort of how we were thinking about the equity needs over the next 4 years through 2025 related to the growth of the utility. And so let's think back a little bit on how that ties together. So previously, when we laid out that '21 through 2025 EPS CAGR, we talked about the EPS CAGR of 5% to 7%. We still firmly believe that, that is the range that we're in. And in terms of total equity needs over the period, we talked about up to $250 million a year, to some extent, varying based on the capital that was needed in that year. As we look over that period, while we've got $900 million more CapEx in 2022, which obviously that's in response to customer needs and the state needs with some reliability and that's on top of an already robust capital plan, we want to basically take some of the equity that otherwise would have turned up in later years and rebalance back to 2022. And that's again in support of our metrics. So that's kind of the balance that we're always trying to strike. And so those are how I think about the pieces of the equity need and how we thought through them as we develop the plan for the balance of this year and then for next year.
Operator:
And that was the last question. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Sam Ramraj. Thank you, sir.
Sam Ramraj :
Well, thank you for joining us. This concludes the conference call. So have a good rest of the day and stay safe, everyone. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may go ahead and disconnect at this time.
Operator:
Good afternoon and welcome to the Edison International Second Quarter 2021 Financial Teleconference. My name is Terry and I will be your operator today. [Operator Instructions] Today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Sam Ramraj, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Ramraj, you may begin your conference.
Sam Ramraj:
Thank you, Terry. And welcome, everyone. Our speakers today are President and Chief Executive Officer, Pedro Pizarro; and the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Maria Rigatti. Also on the call are other members of the management team. I would like to mention that we are doing this call with our executives in different locations so please bear with us if you experience any technical difficulties. Materials supporting today's call are available at www.edisoninvestor.com. These include our Form 10-Quarter, prepared remarks from Pedro and Maria and the teleconference presentation. Tomorrow, we will distribute our regular business update presentation. During this call, we'll make forward-looking statements about the outlook for Edison International and its subsidiaries. Actual results could differ materially from current expectations. Important factors that could cause different results are set forth in our SEC filings. Please read these carefully. The presentation includes certain outlook assumptions as well as reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure. During the question-and-answer session, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up I will now turn the call over to Pedro.
Pedro Pizarro:
Well, thank you, Sam. And thanks everybody for joining. I hope of all you and loved ones are staying healthy safe. Edison International reported core earnings per share of $0.94 compared to $1 a year ago. However, this comparison is not meaningful because SCE did not receive a final decision in track 1 of its 2021 General Rate Case during the quarter. As many of you are aware, a proposed decision was issued on July 9th. The utility will file its opening comments later today and reply comments on August 3rd. While Maria will cover the PD in more detail, our financial performance for the quarter, and other financial topics, let me first give you a few observations, which are summarized on page two. The PD’s base rate revenue requirement of $6.9 billion is approximately 90% of SCE’s request. The primary drivers of the reduction are lower funding for wildfire insurance premiums, vegetation management, and depreciation. The main reduction to SCE’s 2021 capital forecast was for the Wildfire Covered Conductor Program. Excluding wildfire mitigation-related capital, the PD would approve 98% of SCE’s 2021 capital request, much of which was uncontested. The PD acknowledged the often-competing objectives of balancing safety and reliability risks with the costs associated with ensuring SCE can make necessary investments to provide safe, reliable, and clean energy. The PD also notes that wildfire mitigation is a high priority for the state and the Commission. The PD supports critical safety and reliability investments and provides the foundation for capital spending and rate base through 2023. We believe it is generally well-reasoned, but it has some major policy implications that are fundamentally inconsistent with where the state is headed. SCE’s CEO, Kevin Payne, addressed these implications well during oral arguments earlier this week, and the utility will elaborate on them in its opening comments, which are outlined on page three. The largest area of concern is the significant proposed cut to SCE’s Wildfire Covered Conductor Program. This is SCE’s paramount wildfire mitigation program and the utility’s comments will focus on ensuring the program’s scope is consistent with the appropriate risk analyses, state policy, and achieving the desired level of risk mitigation. The proposed reductions would deprive customers of a key risk reduction tool, so SCE is advocating strongly for a balanced final decision. We believe additional CPUC-authorized funding for SCE’s covered conductor deployment is warranted to protect customers’ and communities’ vital interests and achieve the state’s objective for minimizing wildfire risk. As noted in prior discussions, SCE has prioritized covered conductor and other wildfire mitigation activities to urgently reduce wildfire risk. A scorecard of SCE’s wildfire mitigation plan progress is on page four of the deck. We believe that through the execution of the WMP and other efforts, SCE has made meaningful progress in reducing the risk that utility equipment will spark a catastrophic wildfire. Page five provides a few proof points of how SCE believes it has reduced wildfire risk for its customers. First, circuits with covered conductor have experienced 69% fewer faults than those without, which demonstrates the efficacy of this tool. In fact, on segments where we have covered the bare wire, there has not been a single CPUC-reportable ignition from contact with objects or wire-to-wire contact. Second, where SCE has expanded vegetation clearance distances and removed trees that could fall into its lines, there have been 50% fewer tree or vegetation-caused faults than the historic average. Lastly, since SCE began its high fire risk inspection program in 2019, it has found 66% fewer conditions requiring remediation on the same structures year-over-year. These serve as observable data points of the substantial risk reduction from SCE’s wildfire mitigation activities. The utility will use the tools at its disposal to mitigate wildfire risk. This includes deploying covered conductor at a level informed by the Final Decision, augmented by using Public Safety Power Shutoffs, or PSPS, to achieve the risk reduction originally contemplated for the benefit of customers. The PD also included comments on the topic of affordability. We agree that affordability is always important and must be weighed against the long-term investments in public safety. I will highlight that SCE’s rates have generally tracked local inflation over the last 30 years and have risen the least since 2009 relative to the other major California IOUs. Currently, SCE’s system average rate is about 17% lower than PG&E’s and 34% lower than SDG&E’s, reflecting the emphasis SCE has placed on operational excellence over the years. While we recognize that the increases in the next few years, tied to the investments in safety for the communities SCE serves are higher than this historical average, SCE has demonstrated its ability to manage rate increases to the benefit of customers. Underfunding prudent mitigations like covered conductor is penny wise and pound foolish, as it may ultimately lead to even greater economic pain and even loss of life for communities impacted by wildfires that could have been prevented. An active wildfire season is underway right now, and I would like to emphasize SCE’s substantial progress in executing its WMP. Through the first half of the year, SCE completed over 190,000 high fire risk-informed inspections of its transmission and distribution equipment, achieving over 100% of its full year targets. The utility also continues to deploy covered conductor in the highest risk areas. Year-to date, SCE installed over 540 circuit miles of covered conductor in high fire risk areas. For the full year, SCE expects to cover at least another 460 miles for a total of 1,000 miles deployed in 2021, consistent with its WMP goal. Additionally, SCE is executing its PSPS Action Plan to further reduce the risk of utility equipment igniting wildfires and to minimize the effects on customers. SCE is on target to complete its expedited grid hardening efforts on frequently impacted circuits and expects to reduce customer minutes of interruption by 78%, while not increasing risks, assuming the same weather conditions as last year. To support the most vulnerable customers living in high fire risk areas when a PSPS is called, the utility has distributed over 4,000 batteries for backup power through its Critical Care Back-Up Battery program. We believe California is also better prepared to combat this wildfire season. The Legislature has continued to allocate substantial funding to support wildfire prevention and additional firefighting resources. Just last week, the state announced that CAL FIRE had secured 12 additional firefighting aircraft for exclusive use in its statewide response efforts, augmenting the largest civil aerial firefighting fleet in the world. SCE is also supporting the readiness and response efforts of local fire agencies. In June, SCE contributed $18 million to lease three fire-suppression helicopters. This includes two CH-47 helitankers, the world’s largest fire-suppression helicopters, and a Sikorsky-61 helitanker. All three aircraft have unique water and fire-retardant-dropping capabilities and can fly day and night. In addition, a Sikorsky-76 command and control helicopter, along with ground-based equipment to support rapid retardant refills and drops, will be available to assist with wildfires. The helitankers and command-and-control helicopter will be strategically stationed across SCE’s service area and made available to various jurisdictions through existing partnerships and coordination agreements between the agencies through the end of the year. We also appreciate the strong efforts by President Biden, Energy Secretary Granholm, and the broader Administration. I was pleased to join the President, Vice President, cabinet members, and Western Governors including Governor Newsom for a virtual working session on Western wildfire preparedness last month. The group highlighted key areas for continued partnership among the Federal government, states, and utilities, including land and vegetation management, deploying technology from DOE’s national labs and other Federal entities, and enabling response and recovery. Let me conclude my comments on SCE’s wildfire preparations for this year by pointing out a resource we made available for investors. We recently posted a video to our Investor Relations website featuring SCE subject matter experts discussing the utility’s operational and infrastructure mitigation efforts and an overview of state actions to meet California’s 2021 drought and wildfire risk, so please go check it out. Investing to make the grid resilient to climate change-driven wildfires is a critical component of our strategy and just one element of our ESG performance. Our recently published Sustainability Report details our progress and long-term goals related to the clean energy transition and electrification. In 2020, approximately 43% of the electricity SCE delivered to customers came from carbon-free resources, and the company remains well-positioned to achieve its goal to deliver 100% carbon-free power by 2045. SCE doubled its energy storage capacity during this year, and continues to maintain one of the largest storage portfolios in the nation. We have been engaged in Federal discussions on potential clean energy provisions and continue to support policies aligned with SCE’s Pathway 2045 target of 80% carbon-free electricity by 2030. However, electric affordability and reliability must be top of mind as we push to decarbonize the economy through electrification. The dollars needed to eliminate the last molecule of CO2 from power generation will have a bigger impact when spent instead on an electric vehicle or heat pump. For example, the utility is spending over $800 million to accelerate vehicle electrification across its service area, that’s a key component to achieve an economy-wide net zero goal most affordably. Recently, SCE opened its Charge Ready 2 program for customer enrollment. This program is going to support 38,000 new electric car chargers over the next 5 years, with an emphasis on locations with limited access to at-home charging options and disadvantaged communities. We are really proud that Edison’s leadership in transportation electrification was recently recognized by our peers with EEI’s Edison Award, our industry’s highest honor. SCE has been able to execute on these objectives, while maintaining the lowest system average rate among California’s investor owned utilities and monthly residential customer bills below the national average. As we grow our business toward a clean energy future, we are also adapting our infrastructure and operations to a new climate reality, striving for best-in-class operations, and importantly we are aiming to deliver superior value to our customers and investors. With that, let me turn over Maria for the financial report.
Maria Rigatti:
Thank you, Pedro. And good afternoon, everyone. My comments today will cover second quarter 2021 results, comments on the proposed decision in SCE’s General Rate Case, our capital expenditure and rate base forecasts, and updates on other financial topics. Edison International reported core earnings of $0.94 per share for the second quarter 2021, a decrease of $0.06 per share from the same period last year. As Pedro noted earlier, this year-over-year comparison is not meaningful because SCE has not received a final decision in its 2021 General Rate Case and continues to recognize revenue from CPUC activities based on 2020 authorized levels. We will account for the 2021 GRC track 1 final decision in the quarter SCE receives it. On page seven, you can see SCE’s key second quarter EPS drivers on the right hand side. I’ll highlight the primary contributors to the variance. To begin, revenue was higher by $0.10 per share. CPUC-related revenue contributed $0.06 to this variance, however this was offset by balancing account expenses. FERC-related revenue contributed $0.04 to this variance, driven by higher rate base and a true-up associated with filing SCE’s annual formula rate update. O&M had a positive variance of $0.11 and two items account for the bulk of this variance. First, cost recovery activities, which have no effect on earnings, were $0.05. This variance is largely due to costs recognized last year following the approval of costs tracked in a memo account. Second, lower wildfire mitigation-related O&M drove a $0.02 positive variance, primarily because fewer remediations were identified through the inspection process. This continues the trend we observed in first quarter. Over the past few years, SCE has accelerated and enhanced its approach to risk-informed inspections of its assets. Inspections continue to be one of the important measures for reducing the probability of ignitions. For the first half of the year, while we have maintained the pace of inspections and met our annual target, we have observed fewer findings of equipment requiring remediation. Lastly, depreciation and property taxes had a combined negative variance of $0.10, driven by higher asset base resulting from SCE’s continued execution of its capital plan. As Pedro mentioned earlier, SCE received a proposed decision on track 1 of its 2021 General Rate Case on July 9. If adopted, the PD would result in base rate revenue requirements of $6.9 billion in 2021, $7.2 billion in 2022, and $7.6 billion in 2023. This is lower than SCE’s request primarily related to lower authorized expenses for wildfire insurance premiums, vegetation management, employee benefits, and depreciation. For wildfire insurance, the PD would allow SCE to track premiums above authorized in a memo account for future recovery applications. The PD would also approve a vegetation management balancing account for costs above authorized. In its opening comments, SCE will address the PD’s procedural error that resulted in the exclusion of increased vegetation management labor costs driven by updated wage rates. Vegetation management costs that exceed a defined cap, including these higher labor costs, would be deferred to the vegetation management balancing account. The earliest the Commission can vote on the proposed decision is at its August 19 voting meeting. Consistent with our past practice, we will provide 2021 EPS guidance a few weeks after receiving a final decision. I would also like to comment on SCE’s capital expenditure and rate base growth forecasts. As shown on page eight, over the track 1 period of 2021 through 2023, rate base growth would be approximately 7% based on SCE’s request and approximately 6% based on the proposed decision. In the absence of a 2021 GRC final decision, SCE continues to execute a capital spending plan for 2021 that would result in spending in the range of $5.4 to $5.5 billion. SCE will adjust spending for what is ultimately authorized in the 2021 GRC final decision, while minimizing the risk of disallowed spending. We have updated our 2021 through 2023 rate base forecast to include the Customer Service Re-Platform project. SCE filed a cost recovery application for the project last week. I will note that this rate base forecast does not include capital spending for fire restoration related to wildfires affecting SCE’s facilities and equipment in late 2020. This could add approximately $350 million to rate base by 2023. Page nine provides a summary of the approved and pending cost recovery applications for incremental wildfire-related costs. SCE recently received a proposed decision in the CEMA proceeding for drought and 2017 fire-related costs. The PD would authorize recovery of $81 million of the requested revenue. As you can see on page 10, during the quarter, SCE requested a financing order that would allow it to issue up to $1 billion of recovery bonds to securitize the costs authorized in GRC track 2, 2020 residential uncollectibles, and additional AB 1054 capital authorized in GRC track 1. SCE expects a final decision on the financing order in the fourth quarter. Turning to page 11, SCE continues to make solid progress settling the remaining individual plaintiff claims arising from the 2017 and 2018 Wildfire and Mudslide events. During the second quarter, SCE resolved approximately $560 million of individual plaintiff claims. That leaves about $1.4 billion of claims to be resolved, or less than 23% of the best estimate of total losses. Turning to page 12, let me conclude by building on Pedro’s earlier comments on sustainability. I will emphasize the strong alignment between the strategy and drivers of EIX’s business, and the clean energy transition that is underway. In June, we published our sustainable financing framework, outlining our intention to continue aligning capital-raising activities with sustainability principles. We have identified several eligible project categories, both green and social, which capture a sizable portion of our capital plan, including T&D infrastructure for the interconnection and delivery of renewable generation using our grid, our EV charging infrastructure programs, grid modernization, and grid resiliency investments. Shortly after publishing the framework, SCE issued $900 million of sustainability bonds that will be allocated to eligible projects and reported on next year. Our commitment to sustainability is core to the company’s values and a key element of our stakeholder engagement efforts. Importantly, our approach to sustainability drives the large capital investment plan that needs to be implemented to address the impacts of climate change and to serve our customers safely, reliably, and affordably. That concludes my remarks.
Pedro Pizarro:
Terry, could you please open the call for questions. As a reminder, we request you to limit yourself to one question and one follow up. So everyone in line has the opportunity to ask questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan. Your line is now open.
Jeremy Tonet:
Hi, good afternoon.
Maria Rigatti:
Hey, Jeremy.
Pedro Pizarro:
Hi, Jeremy.
Jeremy Tonet:
Hi. I wanted to start off here with undergrounding. How helpful could the undergrounding be in your service territory? Is this an option you'd explore? And how does the covered conductor pushback kind of inform your thought process here?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yeah. Happy to pick up on that one, Jeremy. So I think as you've seen us say in the past, we are looking at all the tools in the toolbox. Given our terrain and the fact that is really predominant, that one of the predominant forms of ignition in the past has been from contacts with foreign objects. We find that covered conductor has really provided the optimal tool for reducing risk while maintaining affordability for customers. And so we see that covered conductor has something like 70% of the risk reduction that undergrounding has. The cost difference in the numbers we've seen to date, obviously, the team continues to keep track of what's going on and talking with our peers and talking with experts about potential improvements. But I think the latest numbers we've seen are that covered conductor cost us something like $456,000 a mile, whereas underground being, on average, in our territory, it will cost you about $3.4 million a mile. We have seen some spot applications, and in fact, there's about 17 miles that we targeted to underground between this year and next year. And we'll continue to look at the toolbox, the tune [ph] of toolbox, but at least with our territory, with our incidence of historical ignitions, we believe that covered conductor provides really an optimal tool in terms of both risk reduction and affordability.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. That's helpful. Maybe just kind of shifting gears here a bit. If you could speak more to the policy implications from the PD and how you see intravenous position here on these policies versus just pure cost considerations here?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yeah. I'll give you some thoughts. Maria may have more and Kevin Payne is here as well if we miss anything. Look, there'll be two thoughts that come right away to mind. First is GRCs are litigated proceedings, right? And so we always have at least two sites, actually multiple sites with multiple intervenors. You have some intervenors that are more focused on purely the affordability side of things. I think as the utility, we're really working hard to provide well supported testimony and analysis that is looking at finding the right balance, right? We're balancing - first of all, having a reliable system - actually above all, having a safe system that needs to be in violet. But you really see trade-offs between reliability and affordability, right? You could always spend more to get an extra percentage point in reliability, but at some point, it becomes unaffordable for the customer. So it's how do you find the right balance. I think as you heard me say in the prepared remarks already, really the largest issue leaders, not the only, but the largest issue has been the position that Terni [ph] took in terms of the risk reduction provided by covered conductor and how many miles are enough. And we just have a fundamental difference in view in terms of the policy argument that they're making we are facing a significant, significant wildfire risk gross estate. We've seen it in our area. We strongly believe that the welfare mitigation plans that we prepared really help address at risk. And you saw the data that we shared in the deck and that I mentioned in my remarks around some of these early returns that we're experiencing with significant decreases and some of the risks that we had just 3 years ago, right? So study the figures on reduction in faults, and frankly, no CPUC reportable ignitions yet on miles that we've covered, where we used to have pure [ph] wire. So the fundamental policy debate here is the churn has what we think is some flood map about stopping at 2,700 miles, and we believe that the plan we've laid out that will go to over 6,000 miles, covering was 50% of the 10,000 miles in high fire risk areas provides that kind of risk protection that our customers need, it's consistent with the emphasis that that has on fire mitigation, fire suppression. So affordability is always really important. But one final point I'll give you is one that Kevin Payne made really well during the oral argument. Affordability is not just about the bill that you get tomorrow. Affordability is about the entire economic equation. And if we allow a mitigated wildfire risk to persist and a fire takes place that could have been prevented, that's a much bigger affordability shop for that community in the long run, in addition to the health and safety impact that I can have. So we think we've cut it right in terms of the policy trade-offs, and we hope that the 5 commissioners will agree with that in the final decision. Maria, if you have anything to add there? Or did I cover it?
Maria Rigatti:
No, I think from a policy perspective, Pedro, that really is the biggest discussion we want to have with the commission and with the interveners, it's around covered conductor and the affordability and risk trade-off that you just described. There are some other things when we file our comments later today, there will be some other things that outlined some of them on one of the slides in the deck today. Those are things that certainly we think we should be treated equally as other utilities or in line with precedent. But I think the big discussion, as you can probably tell from the oral argument was really around and is really around covered conductor and the efficacy of that and the proof points also that we've seen as Pedro mentioned.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. That’s very helpful. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Angie Storozynski with Seaport. Your line is now open.
Pedro Pizarro:
Hey, Angei.
Angie Storozynski:
Hi, good afternoon. Okay. I have two questions. The first one, given what happened with the bond yields and the cost of capital having the bond yield driven true up, what do we expect here for - I mean, obviously, it all depends on what happens with the interest rates between now and October. But should we expect some filings from you guys trying to preempt this lowering of the ROE, which would be implied from current bond yields?
Maria Rigatti:
So Angie, I think you know the average bond yield has to be in that dead band. Right now, if you look at sort of the amount of time remaining until the measurement period is over, yields would have to average just over 4% to kind of make the whole year average within the dead band. So what happens, the end of the measurement period is the end of September. We all know that the PTC has taken positions on prior requests to either extend and defer changes on the cost of capital for others. And we also know from our experience back in 2017 that they really prefer to see litigated cases, and we're preparing testimony that's going to focus on the differentiated role and the risks that California IOUs have and that notwithstanding these lower interest rates, that's really driven by these extraordinary events over the past 18 months in all of the government programs that have been implemented to alleviate the impact of the pandemic. But that should not really imply that a change in the ROE is necessary. And I think that the changes in the volatility certainly underscore that. And I think regardless of what happens, we have to file next Spring for another cost of capital proceeding. So those are the sorts of things that we are thinking about. I think since that basic issue, we really need to demonstrate that notwithstanding the interest rate environment, the cost of equity is, in fact, lower. Yeah we'll continue to look at everything that's going on, options on how to best get that point across to the commission to the interveners and also to really underscore the point that financially stable IRUs and California IOUs that are attractive to investors ultimately support customer affordability in the long run, too. So I think we're just going to continue to monitor the situation we're preparing testimony already, and we'll go from there.
Angie Storozynski:
Okay. Thank you. And my second question is on your financing needs this year, you continue to settle more wildfire claims. You haven't yet - should enough equity to meet your guidance for this year. So are we waiting for the final decision and the jurist C [ph] is it that there is some movement in the total number that you might need given, again, ongoing settlement of claims?
Maria Rigatti:
Just to me, I'll kind of bifurcate that into a couple of different parts, if you don't mind. So I'll just kind of go back to sort of where I always like to start with this. Our financing plan is really built from the perspective of maintaining investment-grade ratings. And back when we moved to a best estimate for the wildfire liability last year, we said we would issue approximately $1 billion of equity to support the ratings and then that would allow SCE to continue to issue debt to fund the wildfire claims payment. And since then, we've been evaluating our needs and we focused on different financing options. And back in March, we issued the $1.25 billion of craft and that had the 50% equity content. We've also said in the past that we do think we have flexibility regarding the timing. And so we're continuing to have that belief that we can be flexible in terms of timing. And we're continuing to monitor market conditions, and that's going to inform our next steps. We're going to continue to consider and I think we've talked about this a little bit before, the tools that we would use. So tools needed to consider preferred equity, internal programs, and then if needed, the ATM. Now that's that piece associated with sort of the ongoing discussion around the wildfire claims and the liabilities in '17 and '18. Separately, we've also talked about the need on an ongoing basis what we think is a minimal equity requirement. That piece of it, that ongoing minimal equity need associated with the core business is one that we will provide more specificity around once we get the final decision. So that piece does kind of tie back to the final decision.
Angie Storozynski:
Very good. Thank you. Thank you very much.
Maria Rigatti:
Thanks, Angie.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim. And your line is now open.
Unidentified Analyst:
Hi, good afternoon, team. It's actually Constantine here for Shar. Thanks for the update and all the information provided. I just wanted to kind of follow up a little bit on the PD and kind of the views that it takes on wildfire insurance covered conductors and such. And does that change your approach to procuring wildfire insurance? And are you comfortable with the level of insurance that you have? And would you anticipate that cost would come down as kind of more areas are converted to cover conductor?
Pedro Pizarro:
Actually, Maria, I'll pick up that last part first and then turn the first part to you. Constantine, nice to hear you. We would expect - certainly to hope that over time, as the risk envelope continues to be narrowed in the state, right, and it's not just a utility work, but what the state is doing in terms of flyer suppression, further constraining the overall risk envelope. We certainly hope that over time, that translates into insurer seeing that the risks they're insuring is not as large as it used to be, and that should reflect itself in premiums. But of course, the market to market, so we'll see how that progresses on a down. Mary, let me turn it over to you for the first part.
Maria Rigatti:
Sure. So Constantine, you know that our policy year is July 1 through June 30, so we just started a new policy year. In terms of the PD, the original request in the PD when file the application rates were increasing by big percentages year-over-year and our request had something like a $600 million wildfire insurance premium embedded in it. What came out in the PD is that, one, very importantly, they reiterated that while our insurance premiums are a cost of service, so customers will pay for that as part of their rate. They approved a number or an authorized revenue of about $460 million, which is actually, as it turns out sufficient or at least if we were to look at the balance of this year and then the beginning part of the year, which was the last policy year, that is comparable or at least a little bit more than what the premiums are. We expect the expense for this year to be about $425 million for about $4 billion gross of insurance, but net once you deduct out the self-insured retention and a little bit of coinsurance is about $875 million of wildfire insurance, which is consistent once you get right through to it with what's required in AB 1054. So from that perspective, good policy points on cost of service, aligned with at least for this year, what premiums would be. The third piece of it is that they also reiterated that to the extent premiums go up in the future, we can use that metal account feature that we have used in the past and successfully recovered premiums under in the future as well. So that's all good. The piece of conversation that we will continue to have with them is whether or not it is better to actually collect a little bit more from customers, not just the amount of the wildfire insurance premium but also collect a little bit for customer-funded health insurance, which may over time be more economical for customers since to the extent you don't have a loss, you keep it and roll it over to the next year, which is different on what you do with the premium.
Unidentified Analyst:
Excellent. That makes a lot of sense. And just shifting a little bit to the wildfire, the legacy wildfire loss estimates. I guess, can you qualify the level of comfort that the estimates will not change? And is the best estimate at this point, pretty much derisked now that you have all the settlements in place and kind of the remaining 1.4 f the kind of loss estimate as just kind of progressing towards completion. Do you kind of have any estimates on the duration of kind of settlement - the settlement processes or any qualitative statements around that?
Maria Rigatti:
Probably a statement that sounds a lot like what we said before. Even though the number more - even though more claims have been settled it's still very dynamic. Every claim is different and has to be addressed differently. We continue to monitor the situation, obviously. It's one of the biggest areas of management judgment. And we sit down and have that conversation every quarter to be sure that we're reflecting the things that we know in the reserve. But I would say there's still an error band around that and we'll have to address that as time passes.
Unidentified Analyst:
And I guess just as a point, it's fair to assume that since estimate hasn't moved in a while that it's been kind of close to your - the settlements that have been coming through or kind of close to your best estimate?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yeah. I mean as Maria said, we, Constantine, we look at this every quarter, recognize that we still have several thousand plaintiffs. These are typically smaller than the large settlements we did earlier on, for example, for the Subros. So such a wide diversity of cases and plaintiffs, everything from homeowners, small businesses, global [indiscernible] to just a whole broad range. So that's why we'll continue to test that every quarter and keep you posted if there's any changes. But it's difficult for us and probably not appropriate for us to try and give some perspective on the probability of changes I think under the accounting rules, we provide you what our current best estimate is. And that, as you say, has not changed.
Unidentified Analyst:
That’s fair. That’s very helpful. Thanks for taking our questions.
Pedro Pizarro:
Thanks. Your take care.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.
Michael Lapides:
Hey, guys. Thank you for taking my question. A little bit of a high level one, which is if you think about things that are not in the GRC and track 1 through 4, but might be upside over the next 3 to 4 years to your potential capital spend level, can you highlight what those may be and which ones you've actually already filed for, but you don't have approval for yet? And which ones you haven't even filed for yet, but somewhere embedded within the FDA organization you've got a team of people who are - penciled a paper and started to put together numbers?
Pedro Pizarro:
Well, particularly with the pandemic, we're less penciled to paper and all electronics. It's all very high tech now, all virtual. But joking aside, and Maria, you can come in with details. I'll get the high-level answer to your high-level question, similar to what you heard from us before, right? What you see in the rate case, obviously, is very concrete and we'll see where the final decision comes out. But as we look forward and we think about the clean energy transition, right? There's a number of things as part of the transition that will either support our view that we'll continue to have robust investment needs for a long time or potentially create upside to that. Areas like - I talked a little bit in my remarks about Charge Ready, open question right now as to whether there will be a further role needed for utilities to continue to support the charging infrastructure market or whether private entries will be able to step in and do that fully. Interestingly, I think, Maria is a commissioner [indiscernible] who had a recent commission meeting was I just think thinking out loud about now there may well be the need to have utilities sip in and do more, just given the scale of the transition. And in particular, as I look at it, it's not just about getting charging infrastructure to the average customer of making sure that the transition is equitable. So therefore, making sure there's enough penetration in disadvantaged communities, low-income communities, where private players might not be as economically enticed to do that and where there might be a case to socialize more of that to the build. So transportation is certainly one area, storage is another. We know that the GRC request included in there, I think an assumption of what's it, 60 megawatts or so of new storage over the dependency of the breakage period. But as we see the amounts of storage that will continue to be needed moving forward and the - certainly the potential for some of that to be part and parcel of utility operations might make a lot of sense for some portion of that to be in rate base, right? And so that also creates either support for an overall investment trajectory or potentially even further upside. Building electrification is another area where we've seen, frankly, relatively little progress to date compared to what we think will be needed as we head out as we the state heads out to 2030 and 2045. And so right now, the utility team is thinking about are there places where the utility will be able to help and where it will be economic for our customers to support that rate because you need both of those, right? And so there's some good thinking underway right now around are there potential programs where we might be able to be helpful to the state's transition. So does that give you a few examples. Maria, you may have more specific things.
Maria Rigatti:
Yes. I think maybe in terms of miracle examples because I think there are obviously a lot of opportunities in the list that Pedro provided more detail to come as the team, as you say, with the pencil to paper or virtually the pencil paper works more on the specifics. But in terms of things that have been filed already, where the numbers are more explicit, we did recently include in our rate base forecast, so already in the numbers, but we did recently include our customer service platform project. So that's that reflects about $500 million or so of rate base by the time you get out to 2023. So that's now embedded application was filed last week. Also, we, as you know, experienced wildfires in our service territory late last year up in the Big Creek area, a lot of restoration had to go on there. We haven't yet applied for recovery of that, but that would be, say, about another $350 million of free base. If approved, I'll say, in the year 2023, it's probably a reasonable time frame. So those are more specific things, Michael, in addition to what I would view as a clean energy transition opportunities that Pedro mentioned.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Thank you, guys. much appreciated it.
Pedro Pizarro:
You bet.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Jonathan Arnold with Vertical Research Partners. And your line is now open.
Pedro Pizarro:
Hey, Jonathan.
Jonathan Arnold:
Hi. I think you just answered my question, which is that the customer replatform is effectively what's driving the higher range and sort of main rate base forecast versus last quarter. Is that pretty much all of it? Or was there something else in there?
Maria Rigatti:
That should be it, Jonathan. I think we haven't changed any - we've shown you what the PD numbers are, obviously, but we haven't really changed anything yet until we get the final decision.
Jonathan Arnold:
And your sort of confidence in a recovery of that, can you just sort of talk to that a little bit, please?
Maria Rigatti:
Sure. Well, the customer service platform project replaces a very, very old system, so it was very much needed. Some of it was written in software languages that we couldn't even get people to who knew them anymore. So I think from that perspective, very much needed. I think over the course of the implementation, the team has had ongoing dialogue with energy division and the like to keep them apprised of what's been happening at the project. There have been, over time, some cost increases, obviously, because we had to wrap more into the project given the complexity of our system. But we think that all the work that we've done really is well justified and the testimony that we filed supports that. We're now in stabilization mode. And so we keep keeping a close eye on just customer satisfaction, ability to answer customers' questions all of the things that you would expect to happen when a new system goes live. But the team is very, very attuned to that, and we've added extra folks in a stabilization mode as well. So I think we've done all the things that we should be doing in order to ensure that we can make a good case with the commission.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. And then maybe if I could - well, I think while you've been speaking there is a shelf filing came across. Is that just a refresh of maybe something expiring? Could you just speak to that?
Maria Rigatti:
Yeah, both SCE and EIX, the shelf registrations were expiring. So that's - this is just normal course. For EIX, the only thing we did was we used to have two separate ones, we put them together so that we don't have to have the - I'll say, the administrative burden of two filings. So very normal course.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay, great. Thank you, guys.
Pedro Pizarro:
Thanks, Jonathan.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Sophie Karp with KeyBanc Capital Markets. And your line is now open.
Pedro Pizarro:
Hi, Sophine.
Unidentified Analyst:
Hi,. This is - actually, it's Sangita for Sophie. Thanks for taking my question. So we did go through the PD and understandably the covered conductor is the point of difference here. Would you consider, let's say, the final decision comes in close to the weather PD is, would you still consider building on your covered conductor program over the plan to seek the recovery at a future date?
Pedro Pizarro:
I think as Kevin Payne said during the oral argument, we will strongly factor in the guidance from the CPUC, right? And so ultimately, they will be ruling on a certain risk level, risk trade-off level as they think about balancing affordability and risk and safety. We certainly feel strongly about what the right answer is here, right, which is not the PD. It's more like what we proposed to the extent that the guidance it provide us would limit spending we will use some of the other tools that we have in the 2 box, including PSPS much more adequately right or as needed in order to make sure that we maintain an appropriate risk level for our customers.
Unidentified Analyst:
Great. Thanks so much.
Pedro Pizarro:
You bet. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Julien Dumoulin with Bank of America. And your line is now open.
Julien Dumoulin:
Hey, good afternoon, team. Thanks for the time.
Pedro Pizarro:
Hey, Julien. How are you?
Julien Dumoulin:
Good. Thank you. I suppose, if I can come back to the crux of the conversation around affordability, how do you think about the different scenarios around what the commission could do here and creating the bill affordability, right? It seems evident that one needs to try to continue to push as much as possible towards addressing and mitigating wildfire risk. How do you think about creating bill headroom, whether through OpEx or effectively shifting out other projects from a CapEx perspective? I'm just thinking out loud and putting it back to you on sort of the different levers here that might exist to create that affordability that seems necessary to move forward with the wildfire spending at your proposed pace?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yeah. Julien, it's a great question. A few reactions right away, and Maria may have more. First, it's what we've been doing for the last 5, 6, 7, 8 years, right? And you've seen us create a lot of rate headroom in order to do the work that we needed to do. I commented in my prepared remarks on the way that we've maintained O&M cost increases and frankly, total system rate at an average rate increases at around the level of inflation for the last three decades. And I know we've talked with you and with other investors and analysts significantly about that in the past. We've continued to track record. Obviously, this GRC is a major departure from that driven in large part by the wildfire-related needs. But we will continue to look at opportunities to do better cost management, to do more use of technology that can help make our work more effective, more efficient. That's definitely an ongoing tool. And I don't think on that one you're ever done, right? Because the reality is the bar keeps going up, the digital tools, the data analytics, all of these continue to improve and open up new opportunities that I don't think any of us imagined 5 or 10 years ago. So I'd say that's part one of the answer. Part two, kind of goes back to some of the discussion in -- for some of the earlier questions. There is a there's a balance there, right? And it's important that the commission be thinking about affordability broadly, not only in terms of the near-term rate increase, but the impacts of that over time, the risk that it either mitigates or doesn't mitigate the risk it might leave behind on the table that might then increase the risk of wildfire in the future that would have a much more devastating economic impact on the community or the risk that by not spending enough on covered conductor, we might have to continue using PSPS for a longer period of time in a particular community, which has one set of impacts, right? And I order the commission has appropriately been very sensitive to those. So there is absolutely a balancing act there. It's a tough job to the regulator has a tough job that we have. But I think we've put together a well-thought-out approach for balancing those risks. So just a few reactions. Maria, you may have others.
Maria Rigatti:
Yeah. I guess, Julien, the one thing I would also add to that maybe two things. If you go all the way back to when we filed our application for this we actually tee that up for the commission and said, we know we have to balance a lot of different things between what we need to invest for safety and also in water risk mitigation and then affordability for our customers. So we actually told them that some of our investments in infrastructure replacement, we would hold on to and not propose for this GRC cycle and instead take that up again when more of the wildfire mitigation CapEx had been spent. So I think that balance is one that we always try to strike. And I think it's the conversation with the commission and the commission raised it during their own affordability on bond because they recognize that over the longer term, more electrification is actually going to drive lower cost for customers. You've seen it in our pathway paper. The commission themselves recognize that electrification will reduce energy as a customer - as the share of customer wallet. So we have to focus on the near term with a view, not just on affordability, what's on the bill, as Kevin said in his oral argument, it's the overall economic proposition that we have to think about with our customers. And so let's get this done. I think one of the numbers he quoted in his oral arguments was that if we increase covered conductor to the level that we had in the request that's really about $2 a month on the customer bill. I'm not trying to minimize that. I know people are in different situations economically. But when you think about the alternative, that's really, I think, the most economical choice. And then that resiliency tees up the system and the customers for the long term when electrification really does minimize costs.
Pedro Pizarro:
Yeah. And Maria, let me just pick up one more thing triggered by your comments. Julien, a lot of the focus right now, certainly in this rate case is on the affordability trade-off relative to wildfire mitigation. I think as we move forward over the next decade or two, to Maria's point, align with our Pathway 2045 analysis, I think we'll see more of the discussion shifts to the affordability trade-offs relative to meeting clean energy targets and decarbonizing the economy. Because it's so important that, frankly, the analytical work we've done that demonstrates that using clean electricity to electrify a lot of the economy is the cheapest way for the economy to get to net zero, right? This will put pressure on the electric bill I don't think it will be the sort of rate increases year-on-year that we see in this rate case, right? But we might see excursions to a little bit of local inflation in order to build that the infrastructure needed to electrify much more of the economy and therefore, we carve it out, right? And so frankly, part of our job and the job of future teams at Edison over the next two decades will be to constantly be putting good educational materials out there, good analysis around the world, not just the sense per kilowatt hour world, but the world in a dollars per ton of GHG removed perspective because that's just as important a metric per kilowatt hour.
Julien Dumoulin:
Yeah. And quick, if I could. If I can throw one in quick here, just to follow up. How do you think about - obviously, there's some fairly transparent cost of capital dynamics out there that could put pressure on numbers. How do you think about offsetting factors? Again, I'm coming back to O&M, thinking about that as being a lever both in the near term and the long term. How do you think about offsetting some of the cost of capital with O&M or refinancing opportunities, et cetera? Just trying to reconcile rate base back to earnings growth here, if you will.
Pedro Pizarro:
Yeah. I'll give you 1 reaction, Maria may have different ones. First, look, at the end of the day, the customer sees one bill, right? And so we want to make sure we're pulling on all the levers to provide them an affordable experience that's also safe and reliable and clean. And also to make sure that we have an appropriate opportunity for our investors to get a return on and off their capital, right? So kind of stating the blatantly obvious, that's important. Get a reaction though is that we do have separate proceedings in California. We think spend a lot of value in having a separate rate case proceeding from a different cost of capital proceeding. And particularly as we get to a cost of capital filing, well, clearly, during the commission's mines, in our mind, we'll all be thinking about the impact on customers of various increments. Cost of capital in California is really constructed around ensuring that there's a fair opportunity for investors, for shareholders to get the return often on capital in order to make the California investment and attractive one relative to investments elsewhere in the country and in other marketplaces, right? And so particularly as we head into a period over the next decade or where the country as a whole will see a dramatic need for investment across all sectors of the economy to be carbonized. It's really important that the regulatory framework in California remain one that is viewed as fair, as stable, as compensatory to shareholders and to all stakeholders, and one where the cost of service principles are respected, right? And so you're seeing a lot of our efficacy focused on making sure that we are constantly coming back to the Sintrom line in terms of what's a fair cost of service and how do we get recovery in that versus what things in what areas to the shareholder of their risk of recovery. And so that's why I like the idea about fairly pure cost of capital proceeding that just looking at the math and the principles of the policy around what a fair return given the unique risks that utilities are asked to bear in California, given that we are at the leading edge of the clean energy transition. So anyway, I just see a few ambling thoughts there, Julien. Maria, anything you want to clean up or change there?
Maria Rigatti:
No. I think you've captured it, Pedro.
Julien Dumoulin:
Awesome, guys. Thank you for the time. Take care.
Maria Rigatti:
Thanks, Julien.
Operator:
Thank you. And that was our last question. So I will now turn the call back to Mr. Sam Ramraj.
Sam Ramraj:
Well, thank you for joining us, everyone. This concludes the conference call. And have a good rest of the day and stay safe. You may now disconnect.
Pedro Pizarro:
Thanks, everybody.+
Operator:
Good afternoon and welcome to the Edison International First Quarter 2021 Financial Teleconference. My name is Michelle and I will be your operator today. [Operator Instructions] Today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Sam Ramraj, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Ramraj, you may begin your conference.
Sam Ramraj:
Thank you, Michelle and welcome, everyone. Our speakers today are President and Chief Executive Officer, Pedro Pizarro; and the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Maria Rigatti. Also on the call are other members of the management team. I would like to mention that we are doing this call with our executives in different locations so please bear with us if you experience any technical difficulties. Materials supporting today's call are available at www.edisoninvestor.com. These include our Form 10-Quarter, prepared remarks from Pedro and Maria and the teleconference presentation. Tomorrow, we will distribute our regular business update presentation. During this call, we'll make forward-looking statements about the outlook for Edison International and its subsidiaries. Actual results could differ materially from current expectations. Important factors that could cause different results are set forth in our SEC filings. Please read these carefully. The presentation includes certain outlook assumptions as well as reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure. [Operator Instructions] I will now turn the call over to Pedro.
Pedro Pizarro:
Well, thank you, Sam and good afternoon, everybody. Today, Edison International reported core earnings per share of $0.79 compared to $0.63 a year ago. However, this year-over-year comparison is not particularly meaningful because SCE has not received a decision in its 2021 General Rate Case. SCE recognized revenue from CPUC activities for both the first quarter 2020 and 2021 largely based on 2020 authorized base revenue requirements. Maria will discuss our financial performance in her remarks. Investors have been asking us about how we view Edison's risk profile given all the news reports that California is headed into another peak wildfire season with above-average risk. As I have shared before, 2019 and 2020 were also above-average-risk years, with 2020 setting records for acres burned. However, and this is a really important, however, the state has successfully avoided the scale of catastrophic damage seen in 2017 and 2018. I would like to highlight three key factors that have significantly improved our risk profile
Maria Rigatti:
Thanks, Pedro, and good afternoon, everyone. My comments today will cover first quarter 2021 results, our capital expenditure and rate base forecasts, key regulatory filings, and updates on other financial topics. Edison International reported core earnings of $0.79 per share for the first quarter 2021, an increase of $0.16 per share from the same period last year. As Pedro noted earlier, this year-over-year comparison is not particularly meaningful because SCE has not received a decision in its 2021 General Rate Case. On page 7, you can see SCE’s key first quarter EPS drivers on the right-hand side. I would like to highlight a handful of items that accounted for much of the variance. To begin, revenue was higher by $0.05 per share. FERC-related revenue contributed $0.03 to this variance, primarily due to higher rate base. CPUC-related revenue contributed $0.02 to this variance. However, this was offset by balancing account expenses with no effect on earnings. O&M had a positive variance of $0.20, largely due to lower wildfire mitigation-related O&M and lower employee benefits expenses. Wildfire mitigation expenses were lower in the first quarter, primarily because fewer remediations were identified through the inspection process. There was also a negative variance of $0.08 from an increase in depreciation due to a higher asset base. Lower net financing costs had a positive variance of $0.08 due to several items, including lower interest rates on balancing accounts and lower preferred dividends due to the redemption of preferred stock at SCE last year. Finally, SCE’s EPS in the quarter was $0.04 lower because of dilution from the increase in shares outstanding, primarily associated with the equity offering in May 2020. I would now like to comment on SCE’s capital expenditure and rate base growth forecasts, which are shown on page 8. Our capital and rate base forecasts are unchanged from the last quarter pending a final decision in SCE’s 2021 GRC track 1. SCE is executing against a capital plan that targets key programs, while maintaining flexibility in later years to adapt to what is ultimately authorized in the GRC decision. The rate base forecast does not include certain projects and programs that are not yet approved. This includes the Customer Service Re-Platform project, or CSRP, which went operational earlier this month. SCE expects to file an application for cost recovery for CSRP later this year and, if approved, this could add approximately $500 million to rate base by 2023. It also does not reflect capital spending on fire restoration related to wildfires affecting SCE’s facilities and equipment in late 2020. SCE is evaluating the costs to determine how much may be incremental to the current rate base forecast. Please turn to page 9. On the regulatory front, we remain hopeful that SCE will receive a proposed decision on track 1 of its 2021 GRC this quarter. As a reminder, the CPUC can vote out a final decision no sooner than 30 days after it issues a proposed decision. Consistent with our prior practice, we will issue earnings guidance after we receive a final decision on the GRC. Additionally, SCE filed its testimony in track 3 of the 2021 GRC in the first quarter. In track 3, SCE is requesting recovery of $497 million in revenue requirement, and that the CPUC find reasonable $679 million of incremental wildfire mitigation capital expenditures. This filing is another step towards recovery of wildfire mitigation costs we have already incurred. Page 10 provides a summary of the approved and pending cost recovery applications for incremental wildfire-related costs, including track 3, which I just mentioned. As you can see on page 11, in the coming months, SCE will request a financing order that would allow it to securitize the costs authorized in GRC track 2, residential uncollectibles for 2020, and additional AB 1054 capital authorized in GRC track 1. We expect SCE’s total request to be approximately $1 billion, composed of $500 million of AB 1054-related capital, $400 million of wildfire mitigation-related O&M, and $100 million of incremental residential uncollectible expenses associated with the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Related to the 2017 and 2018 Wildfire and Mudslide events, SCE continues to make solid progress settling the remaining individual plaintiff claims. As shown on page 12, during the first quarter, SCE resolved approximately $200 million of individual plaintiff claims. In total, that brings resolved claims to approximately $4.2 billion, representing more than two-thirds of the best estimate of total losses, which remains unchanged. I would now like to provide an update on the EIX financing plan and the issuance of securities with up to $1 billion of equity content that we discussed on our last earnings call. To reiterate our previous statements, this equity content supports maintaining investment grade ratings at EIX and the utility. During the first quarter, Edison International issued $1.25 billion of preferred stock, with equity content of approximately $625 million. We will continue to monitor market conditions and consider additional preferred equity, internal programs, and, if needed, the existing at-the-market program to satisfy the balance of the equity content need this year. Beyond 2021, we continue to expect to have minimal equity needs associated with SCE’s ongoing capital program and we will quantify these after receiving a final decision in the 2021 GRC. That concludes my remarks.
Sam Ramraj:
Michelle, please open the call for questions. As a reminder, we request you to limit yourself to one question and one follow-up, so everyone in line has the opportunity to ask questions.
Jeremy Tonet:
Hi. Good afternoon.
Maria Rigatti:
Hi, there.
Pedro Pizarro:
Good afternoon, Jeremy.
Jeremy Tonet:
Just want to start off on the Biden point, if I could. And granted, it's very kind of early innings here, and it could still change its form. But just wondering, as you see it right now, what impact do you think the plan would have on EIX, particularly as it relates to transmission and EVs? If you could share any thoughts for us there.
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes. To give you a few high-level thoughts, Jeremy, and as you said, it's early here. And as you know, we’ve seen the administration provides last week the start to their plan through the NDC, but lots of details to be filled in, not only by the administration, but then also ultimately by Congress, right? And so with divided Congress, I expect that Anything happens in Washington, at least on the conventional side, will have to be bipartisan, and therefore, something that both parties can work with. I think at the highest level, we -- as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we absolutely support the overall economy-wide direction and the 50% to 52% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. As you've seen the initial elements of the Biden plan, clean energy, electrification and transmission are all big parts of the plan. And they line up really nicely with what we've been saying is the most feasible and cheapest way for California to get there through our Pathway 2045 work. So that's really good alignment in terms of strategy, and I think it just provides long-term support for what we've been talking about for the last several years from an SCE perspective, making the investments needed to prepare the grid, to be able to manage their transition and to support customers, see electrifying building, space and water heating, electrifying transportation. And then, I think in terms of the core utility investment what that means is, I think most importantly support for the core program that we've outlined. I know that we don't provide guidance beyond the rate case cycle to date. But we have said that we expect to see this very robust spending need -- investment need for the next several years, certainly well past the rate case. And really as you look on a California-wide basis, we have estimated in Pathway 2045 that the investment need will be something like $250 billion or so across the need for clean energy resources, renewables, storage and transmission investment. The transmission part of that alone -- transmission and distribution part is around $75 billion. And I think one of the charts in the deck provided a little detail on that. So, I think its page 6 that show the $75 billion breakout for the state. So, a long way of saying we think that that's all supportive of the core investment opportunity as well as some upside opportunities to the extent of the utility and so needing to play a role in California to be on core grid investments, or for example, for added storage or for programs like our Charge Ready 2 and Charge Ready transports that we have underway right now. One final thing I'll say is that there was more press this morning on the campaign trail, President Biden has talked about getting the power sector itself on a standalone basis to zero GHG by 2035, and there's now discussion about potentially setting a target of 80% reductions from 2005 levels for the power sector by 2030. Speaking here both from an Edison perspective and from a broader industry perspective, we're all lined up to do as much as we can as fast as we can at a national level. 80% may really be stretching I think, the feasibility for the nationwide transition, just given the fact that it's nine years until ban. There's still R&D and technology that's needed to help fill the gaps and significant technology deployment that would be needed, particularly on the transmission side. It's not just the capital investment but the permitting process that can take quite a while. So, our Pathway 2045 analysis actually concluded that California would see something like a 72% decrease in greenhouse gas emissions from 2005 levels by 2030. I've seen some national analysis from EPRI and others that suggest that the national number on an aggressive pathway might still be below 70% maybe mid-60s or so. So, I think there will be a number of discussions among the industry, the administration and Congress will be on what defines what -- as much as we can do, especially if we can do. What defines the art of that? And how do we make sure that the transition is reliable, affordable and equitable for all customers across the country.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. That's very helpful. Thank you.
Pedro Pizarro:
So, maybe more than you wanted. Yes, we've been spending...
Jeremy Tonet:
No. No, no. That was great. Thank you. Maybe just kind of pivoting a bit here and thinking kind of high level, when it comes to inverse condemnation. I think there had been legal challenges in the past. And just wondering what your thoughts are on this front. Do you see any changes on this outlook? Or do you see any challenges going forward here? Or any thoughts you could share would be helpful. Thanks.
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes. This one maybe more brief. Very near term. we are pleased that we have AB 1054. And AB 1054 did not resolve inverse condemnation, but it created a fair framework. And so, I think that they went a long ways, and in our view significantly reduced the risk exposure for utilities across the state. In terms of changing the state's current approach on inverse itself, I think it's unlikely you'd see legislative action anytime soon because quite frankly, there's been a lot of workabilities and literature on wildfire issues already for AB 1054. They have a full agenda in helping the economy recover from the pandemic. So, I wouldn't expect that there'd be a whole lot of bandwidth for taking that up in the near-term. There is always a possibility that there could be court cases where inverse could be tested again and challenged again. Probably premature to go into details of specific court cases, but I'm aware that not only might there be some that pop up for us as we go through our case load, but other utilities also may have opportunities to challenge inverse. So, that's always a possibility out there through the court system.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it, that’s helpful. That’s it for me. Thanks.
Pedro Pizarro:
Thanks Jeremy.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Bank of America. You may go ahead.
Pedro Pizarro:
Hey there Julian.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey good afternoon team. Thanks for the time. Perhaps here at the outset, Pedro I appreciate your comments on just all the mitigation actions you guys have taken about wildfires. Can you comment a little bit on just the wildfire probabilities? And just as you see weather events materializing thus far, et cetera what the risk profile is going into the fall especially relative -- versus the mitigation efforts that you guys have already pursued here? How would you frame that risk profile? Seems to be getting some attention here. So, I'll put it back to you.
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes. Thanks Julien and that's why I dedicated the first part of my comments to framing that. I guess I would recap one part and maybe add a little bit. The recap part is that we do see and I think all the external forecasts that we see are calling for a likely above-average fire risk peak period here. I think in terms of the mitigation I went through them in a fair amount of detail. Maybe what I would add is that to remind you that the approach we have taken over the last several years has been a risk-informed approach. So, when we went out to replace the first mile of bare wire with cover conductor it was the mile that was in one of the highest-risk areas possible, right? So, we've been going down the stack if you will by trying to address the highest-risk areas first where the mitigations would have the highest impact on risk reduction. So, every piece of work we do is reducing the risk and we've gone after the big bites early on. That I think is really helpful and constructive in terms of framing that risk profile. That risk profile continues to narrow. And that's the stuff we've been doing. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks we've also seen the states dedicate just outstanding effort to improving firefighting modeling and just firefighting capabilities fire-suppression capabilities. And so that ability now that the state has that frankly it didn't have in 2017 or 2018 to fight multiple large fire simultaneously. You might recall I mentioned there are some really interesting L.A. Times articles around 2018 and the challenge that the state had in fighting the Camp Fire and the Woolsey Fire and the Hill Fire all simultaneously. Well, the other states added a lot of qualified bodies with a lot more planes and trucks and equipment to be able to deploy across multiple fronts simultaneously. And that is a significant piece of risk reduction for all of us. So, I'm not sure I can give you a disclosure-quality quantified answer. So, therefore it's x.y% lower. But I think it's a significant percent difference in terms of the overall risk profile that the state faces and that therefore we face right now.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. Excellent. I know it's a tough question. If I can clarify this stuff Maria, you commented about the $200 million in individual claims here. But just as you look prospectively through 2021 here, any specific milestones that could drive perhaps chunkier resolution here and remaining claims of the third? Anything you can say at all on that front?
Maria Rigatti:
No. I think Julien, we're going to continue to disclose every quarter, the progress that we've made. It's -- as we've mentioned before, the individual plaintiffs are not sort of like the homogeneous group that we saw in the subro claims because those are all property damage claims. So we're just going to continue to move through. We have some processes to try and make the discussions with the individual plaintiffs as streamlined as efficient as possible. So we'll do that and we'll come back to you every quarter and let you know what the progress has been.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Okay. Thank you guys. Best of luck.
Pedro Pizarro:
Thanks, Julien.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Jonathan Arnold with Vertical Research Partners. You may go ahead, sir.
Jonathan Arnold:
Hi. Good afternoon guys.
Pedro Pizarro:
Hi, Jonathan.
Maria Rigatti:
Hey, Jonathan.
Jonathan Arnold:
Hi. Just wondering if you could talk a little bit about your approach to PSPS and what you're specifically doing to avoid some of the issues you've kind of come on -- taken some flag for in the past. And then also obviously PG&E has sort of been putting these new criteria in front of the CPUC. I'm just curious if you're working on anything similar or just an update on that whole situation?
Pedro Pizarro:
I'll start and Maria you may have more to add. I would separate the PSPS space into two broad categories. One is the actual -- the physical execution of it, the planning for it, the engineering behind it and then the execution. The second would be the broad communications element. I think that SCE has done frankly pretty well in terms of the core execution for the last several years, right? We -- utility had significant prior investment in sectionalizing the grid. I remember reporting to you all in earnings call probably going one year 1.5 years back about how at that point something like -- if you look at our circuits in high-fire-risk areas, on average it could be cordoned off into four separate sections right, which allowed us to better target a PSPS event. Well we continue to add segmentation sectionalization devices to circuits in high-fire-risk areas. So that continues to hone down the scope of PSPS events. Through that and through better planning from 2019 to 2020 now to 2021 we've seen significant improvements in terms of the number of customers who have been impacted in given events. Now I have to add though that this is all very much weather-driven. And so a lot of what happened in 2020 was that we had some tough weather events to necessitate it using this tool of last resort SOS resort, right? And so that grows some of the numbers. But even if you look now at the various filings that the utilities have made through the WMP process, if you take a look at the numbers I think Edison has actually had -- on a percentage of total customers basis has the lowest percent of customers who are impacted by PSPS in the 2020 season. Importantly, the continued work from 2020 to 2021 has -- we believe will allow Edison to significantly reduce the impact further for customers who were impacted last year, if we have the same weather as we did last year. Of course, we won't have the very same weather. But from an assumption basis, we would see I think pretty significant reduction in the impact. I think the number is over 28% or close to 30% reduction in impact to customers who were impacted last year. So lots of good things in terms of the modern capabilities, being able to triage it down and restrict the impact of any one event. On the communication side, I think, is where we had more opportunity, and frankly, got some pretty pointed feedback deservedly from customers and communities and local governments. And so if you look at the action plan that SCE filed in February, there's a lot there on continuing to do better at the things that we were doing okay at and also doing much better than things that we didn't do so okay at. And so that's where you see a lot of focus on how do we have more timely communications with customers, with communities, with local governments, with emergency operation centers, improving the quality of those communications and the vehicles for them. And so that's an area where I hope our customer -- expect our customers will say a good improvement going into this next peak season. Maria, what have I missed in there?
Maria Rigatti:
Yeah. I guess I would just add two things. One is that along the lines of how we communicate with our customers as well, really a focus on additional programs that could benefit them when they are deenergized, because I think that's obviously a big component of this. I think it's clear that this tool is necessary and important what can we do to help customers when we do deenergize them. And then I think the other aspect that I would just add is now that we filed our action plan, we do have the opportunity now to communicate with the commission. So I think our cadence is about every two weeks now. So it really does provide an opportunity for us to have an ongoing dialogue around what it is that SCE is doing. So I think those are all important aspects of PSPS for this year.
Pedro Pizarro:
Great. I'm glad you added that because for example the battery programs and deployment of batteries is something we've really increased the emphasis on appropriately.
Jonathan Arnold:
It does not show Pedro trying to do it less often if you can and make it more bearable for people when you have to.
Pedro Pizarro:
Absolutely. But we will do it when we have to do it, right? Because it's an important protective tool to protect the health and safety of our communities.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. And then if I may just on the GRC, do you have any sense of what seems to be extending the timing a bit here? And commission has been moving pretty fast on a whole host of other things. Maybe this case doesn't have a statutory deadline or just any thoughts you have why we're still waiting here.
Maria Rigatti:
Yeah. Jonathan, I would not read anything into it. It's a complicated case. It's a request that has a lot of different components like most GRCs. So I think that they're just working through the different aspects of it and putting pen to paper to get that proposed decision out.
Jonathan Arnold:
All right. Thank you.
Maria Rigatti:
Okay. Thanks, Jonathan.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Shar Pourreza; you may go ahead, from Guggenheim Partners.
Pedro Pizarro:
Hi there, Shar.
Constantine Lednev:
Hey, good afternoon. It's actually Constantine here filling in. I just had a couple of quick ones just to follow-up and a lot of the questions that I had have been answered. Kind of, as Jonathan mentioned it's been quiet with the ex partes in the filing and the CPUC has closed out a few of the more controversial proceedings. And just curious to get your sense on the CPUC process this GRC cycle if you see some prospective improvements in the timeliness of the decisions? And is this indicative of the staff getting close to the PD since everything else is now moving forward?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yeah. And if I'm hearing your question right, you're asking about broadly the PUC not just with the GRC right?
Constantine Lednev:
Yes.
Pedro Pizarro:
Right. So I think we mentioned this in our prepared comments a bit. But, the CPUC has been moving expeditiously through a whole lot of stuff. And you throw in a pandemic into the mix. And frankly, I think they performed pretty admirably given the amount of -- the number of balls they juggle under blue skies. And then you make the skies a lot tougher with COVID-19 and the impacts on their own operations of that as well as the extra volume of work that COVID created, right? So frankly, I think they've been doing all right that we all have. The GRC is a complex case. And obviously we had hoped that we would have had a PD by now. But we're still hopeful that we'll have a PD by the end of this quarter, as Maria mentioned in her comments. And I'm not -- I don't think we're seeing anything systemic there that says, there's a problem the process is broken on the contrary. We provided a number of examples in the prepared remarks around things like safety certifications for Edison the disposition of a number of the cost recovery accounts. So I just think they have a lot going on under difficult times. And obviously, we'd like to see a PD for the GRC soon. And we'll do our part for that. But we're not sensing that there's something grinding the gears down more systemically. Maria, anything you say differently then?
Maria Rigatti:
No. I agree.
Constantine Lednev:
Okay. Thanks for that color. That's really helpful. And just one kind of last follow-up, you mentioned that kind of some of the drivers were kind of lower expenses related to fewer mitigation activities on kind of wildfire risk. And just a little bit more broadly, I guess, there's been, some studies on kind of the extremely low moisture content in California forest this year and this fire season. So that kind of I guess, puts us in another kind of high-wildfire-risk year. Can you kind of qualify a little bit if you have enough kind of recoverable capacity for another year of wildfire risk conditions? And I guess more broadly kind of how are you thinking about rate inflation even in the near-term? And I know you kind of mentioned the longer term that some of these issues bounce out but in the near term kind of what are the -- some mitigating factors? And understanding that there will be rate inflation?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yeah. Maybe, I'll take this -- or Maria, I was...
Maria Rigatti:
No. Go ahead. Go ahead.
Pedro Pizarro:
Yeah. Now just on the first part of that, we're certainly seeing the risk around the moisture content. And basically all the signs that point to an above-average risk year. When you talk about capacity, again, I'm taking that multiple ways. And first and foremost, focused on the fact that, we believe, we're doing the things we need to do in our wildfire-mitigation plan to help mitigate our side of the risk. And we believe the state's doing the things they need to do, to have the fire-suppression resources ready to help control a fire, if it ignites. But I think that your question then also went more to on the rate pressure side. Maria, I know you commented some of that already, but maybe you can follow up some more.
Maria Rigatti:
Sure. I think, as you mentioned we did see some lower expenses related to wildfire mitigation. That's inspections that we do. We found fewer areas that we had to remediate. But I think more broadly, there are still costs associated with mitigating this risk. We've talked before, and in fact the commission convened an on bond not too long ago to talk about affordability. And so as we do that, we continue to focus people on the necessity for the wildfire-mitigation expenditures that we and other IOUs are doing that that goes squarely to maintaining the safety of our communities. And then over the longer term, looking at what it really means to our electric grades, as we further electrify the economy, what that means for rates but then also what it means for the energy bill itself. And so I think as we think about affordability, we and the commission and other stakeholders are looking at it from different perspectives, total share of wallet that energy represents so not just the electric bill. Affordability has been defined a few different ways by the commission, things like, how many hours do you have to work at minimum wage in order to pay your electric bill. I think it's going to be an ongoing discussion. But we do know that wildfire mitigation is very important to the safety of our communities and we know that a broader electrification is important for the greenhouse gas and environmental objectives that the state has. And that's important because as we do that and we think about affordability, it's also about being equitable and having all of our communities also participate in that improvement in the environment. So I think it's going to be an ongoing discussion. The commission is rightfully focused on it and we have been focused on it as well, as Pedro mentioned, over a many year cycle trying to manage our costs. And then as we further electrify the economy allowing that to help increase affordability as well.
Constantine Lednev:
Thanks, Maria. Thanks very helpful commentary and thank you for taking the questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs. You may go ahead sir.
Michael Lapides:
Hi, thank you for taking my question. My may be a Maria question. I'm just trying to think about the puts and takes for cash flow. So if I look at slide -- what is it Slide 10 and Slide 11 and even the liabilities you still have to pay out. I mean, if I think about it, the liabilities you still need to pay out around $2 billion based on your estimate. I want to make sure I'm not double counting here, because if I think about it, you've still got a good chunk of cash coming in the door as outlined on the items in Slide 10 and then almost $2 billion -- a little over $2 billion of securitization on Slide 11. Should I think about those two sources as more-than-ample-enough cash to fund the cash outflow that you're going to require when you finalize settlements or when the litigation gets finalized from the 2017 and 2018 wildfires?
Maria Rigatti:
So a couple of things in there. I think as you look at Page 10 and look at Page 11, some of those things are not unique. So some of the things that we talk about on Page 10, end up being securitized on Page 11. So it's probably easier, if we kind of maybe can separately go through and I'll take and tie the numbers for you. The more general response to your question is, we do have cash that we have already spent on wildfire mitigation. This will -- these securitizations and/or recoveries through rates as we continue to file the application will allow us to sort of get that cash back in the door. So some of the pressure that you've seen, often expressed through the issuance of short-term debt in the past or funded through short-term debt in the past will be alleviated. I think from a claims perspective, what we've said before is that EIX has issued equity or preferred equity in the past in order to sustain the credit metrics and the investment-grade ratings both at the utility and the holding company. And that equity issuance allows SCE to continue to debt finance the claims payments as they come due now that we're -- shortly we'll be past the insurance recovery. And so they'll be able to do that. And subject to the waiver that they have they can keep that debt outside of the capital structure. Over time -- cash is all fungible as we're putting dollars down there. That may impact the exact timing of when they do their debt financings. But over time, they'll be funding their business in accordance with their authorized capital structure. So I think that's the general framework. I think the numbers on slides 10 and 11, there's a little bit as I said of overlap between applications. And then we translate that into securitizations on page 11 and we can go over that in more detail if you like later on.
Michael Lapides:
That'd be great. And finally, Pedro, can you circle back -- you highlighted some areas where there could be upside to CapEx. Can you revisit those a little bit for us? You kind of went through that a little bit quickly. And are these items that impact you in kind of 2022, 2023? Or are they beyond that meaning 2024 and beyond?
Pedro Pizarro:
Sure. I think, there's probably some of midterm and some of long-term. And you've already seen over the last few years things that were near-term that materialized, right? So we're going to have our Charge Ready programs and forecast for quite a while until we got approval of those applications. But now we have over $800 million of program and of that it's probably what three plus two some -- certainly over $0.5 billion worth of CapEx coming from those Make Ready programs for light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles. So that's an example of one where we were talking about it for a few years, went through the process, developed and designed a program and got PUC support for this. I think as you look at the near-term -- near midterm in next decade or half a decade, storage is an opportunity that could present some potential upside because for storage I think a lot of that will be done by third parties and whether it's large-scale or the BPAs or whether it's customers down the customer premise. But there may be opportunities for utility-level grid-side storage. You've seen us do already some of that. The rate case included some assumptions about a modest level. But particularly as we see the acceleration of things like vehicle electrification that might lend itself to places where it might make sense to reinforce a substation with more storage as we did with Mira Loma where we put in 20 megawatts of batteries a few years ago. So that's kind of a near-term or call it midterm one. I think longer-term the upside is in transmission. And of course, we have per quarter 1000 with competition for transmission. We want to make sure that the utility is able to compete. However, I'll remind you that for projects that are upgrades of existing utility on projects, the utility has the right of first refusal. And just given the scale of wires investment that we think is needed that's -- I would hypothesize handily that there will be probably some projects that are upgrades of existing lines where maybe we haven't conceived that yet. We really are going to be dependent on the California independent system operator to run through its transmission planning process and determine the transmission that's needed for renewables by 2030 and later on by 2045. So I think transmission presents another offset opportunity. Finally, coming way back down to the Bermudan very near-term, I know Maria mentioned this, but just to remind you that we have our Customer Service Replatform Project and that could be $500 million of rate base additions if approved by the commission. We just went live with that in early April. And then there could also be some additional rate base additions from the wildfire restoration work that we did in 2020 out of the Creek Fire. We haven't quantified that yet externally, but we're finalizing that analysis now. So those are much more kind of blocking-and-tackling near-term opportunities.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Thank you. Much appreciated.
Pedro Pizarro:
Thanks Mike.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Ryan Levine from Citi. You may go ahead.
Ryan Levine:
Hi, good afternoon. How has the cadence of settlement discussions continued in recent weeks for the remaining 32% of the OE and potential claims, recognizing that they're smaller in nature as the pace has been changing?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes. We probably won't be able to help you very much there, unfortunately, because those are confidential negotiations. I think we did share that, there's good news in that we now have a process both for the Thomas, Koenigstein mudslide plaintiffs as well as for the Wolfspeed plaintiffs -- individual plaintiffs. So there's an established process approved by the court that allows us to have smoother approach to working our way through several thousand cases that remain. I would also say -- you mentioned there are smaller ones remaining. When you think -- they're smaller relative to say the subrogation settlements that we did earlier. But I want to make sure, you're not generalizing too much by looking at say, the dollar amount of settlements we've done with individual plaintiffs so far relative to the number of individual plaintiff cases that we settle and making any assumptions or extrapolating from that about the remaining cases. All of these are solved case-by-case, very individualized. So it's really hard to extrapolate and say, because we did X dollars for these Y plaintiffs, you can use that ratio for the remaining ones. It's really case-by-case. I think the one thing we can anchor you on is that, we review the reserves, the best estimate every quarter. We did that once again, and you saw that we did not make any changes to that estimate. Maria, what may I have missed in that?
Maria Rigatti:
No. I think you covered it. There's not really anything, Ryan, that we can stay in terms of cadence or patterns or anything like that. I think the most -- the signposts that you should look for is that we'll be updating every quarter for the amount of settlements that we have reached with some -- with these individual plaintiffs. So that's really going to be the milestone.
Ryan Levine:
Great. And if I could just squeeze in one more in terms of follow-up around the transmission growth opportunity that you had outlined in your Pathway 2045. Was it $75 billion? In light of the presidential and congressional bills before Congress is there any key permits that underpin that longer-term growth outlook? And any politics that may be in flux that could get accelerated in light of some of the federal and state holds?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes. Maybe we'll take a shot at that. Probably the most honest answer I can give you is that, it's really early, right? And you're going to see significant discussions between the administration and Congress over the next weeks and -- maybe even months. I think that there's -- in terms of streaming the timing a bit, I would expect that the administration will want to have a plan firmly in place and time for the Glasgow conference of the parties -- the United Nations conference of the parties in November. And so -- and if not, hopefully sooner. But the pace, the scale -- I mean you even see it in the discussions we're now on the infrastructure package that's been proposed by the President. And you're hearing $2-plus billion numbers coming from his proposal. You're hearing Republican members talking about packages that are more on the $600 million mark. So that will influence us. The relative degree of emphasis on different levers in the packages and so in the case of transmission, I think, it's generally accepted by both sides that transmission will be a key element of the equation. But how that translates into? Are the federal incentives? Frankly, from our perspective, the things that we would really like to see the federal government do more than just money is focus on the permitting process and helping on the federal side to streamline access to federal lands where we might need to have access for rights of way for new transmission lines. That alone is probably one of the biggest levers they have to accelerate this because that -- it's that piece the permitting process that adds years and years of transmission projects. It can take you a decade to build a transmission project. So -- but in any case Ryan, I'll go back to my first point that it's early in the game lots of discussions ahead. And those discussions will then guide the level of emphasis frankly not in transmission, but how deeply to go in the power sector by what time frame? How does that compare with -- how you're going deeper in other sectors? To what extent are you using market mechanisms to do that versus more sector-by-sector allocations? All of that is to be determined.
Ryan Levine:
Appreciate it. Thank you.
Pedro Pizarro:
You bet.
Operator:
And that was our last question. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Sam Ramraj.
Sam Ramraj:
Yes. Thank you for joining us today. This concludes the conference call. Have a good rest of the day everyone and stay safe. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
And thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may go ahead and disconnect at this time.
Operator:
Good afternoon, and welcome to the Edison International Fourth Quarter 2020 Financial Teleconference. My name is Missy, and I will be your operator today. [Operator Instructions] Today’s call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Sam Ramraj, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Ramraj, you may begin your conference.
Sam Ramraj:
Thank you, Missy, and welcome everyone. Our speakers today are President and Chief Executive Officer, Pedro Pizarro; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Maria Rigatti. Also on the call are other members of the management team. I would like to mention that we are doing this call with our executives in different locations, so please bear with us if you experience any technical difficulty. Materials supporting today’s call are available at www.edisoninvestor.com. These include our Form 10-K, prepared remarks from Pedro and Maria, and the teleconference presentation. Tomorrow, we will distribute our regular business update presentation. During this call, we will make forward-looking statements about the outlook for Edison International and its subsidiaries. Actual results could differ materially from current expectations. Important factors that could cause different results are set forth in our SEC filings. Please read these carefully. The presentation includes certain outlook assumptions as well as reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure. During the question-and-answer session, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. I will now turn the call over to Pedro.
Pedro Pizarro:
Well, thank you, Sam. Let me start the call with our sentiments of support for the residents of Texas and all the other states that were impacted physically and financially by last week’s frigid weather. Climate change is a major part of the story there, and our industry just has to continue our collective efforts on climate mitigation and adaptation. Today, Edison International reported core earnings per share of $4.52 for 2020. This exceeded the midpoint of our initial guidance range, and is within the narrowed range we updated on our last earnings call. Core EPS of $4.52 was lower than $4.70 a year ago, and the decline was due to $0.44 of equity share dilution. On an operational basis, excluding dilution, core EPS was $0.26 higher, driven by strong performance at SCE. Maria will discuss our financial performance in detail in her remarks. In 2020, SCE made substantial progress on its comprehensive wildfire mitigation strategy. This continues to advance one of SCE’s top priorities, increasing grid resiliency to adapt to the changing climate and to protect public safety. SCE accomplished the vast majority of its 2020 program targets and in many cases exceeded those goals, despite the challenges we all faced during the COVID-19 pandemic. We have highlighted several measures of SCE’s progress and execution on page 2 of the slide deck that we issued with our earnings release. Since the end of 2018, SCE’s execution of its wildfire mitigation strategy has reduced the risk of wildfires associated with utility infrastructure, despite a record-setting California wildfire season last year. For the second consecutive year, we do not believe damages from any wildfire alleged to be caused by SCE equipment will exceed insurance. SCE is further accelerating its wildfire mitigation efforts. Earlier this month, the utility filed its 2021 wildfire mitigation plan update, which describes how it has matured its wildfire mitigation capabilities and outlines the long-term plan to further advance risk-informed decision-making, data management, grid hardening and community engagement. A prime example is the covered conductor program, which will increase the percentage of distribution overhead circuit miles covered within SCE’s high fire risk areas from approximately 15% today to over 60% by the end of 2023, subject to CPUC approval. The utility continues to innovate and implement technology-based solutions at options such as early fault detection for reducing ignition risks. As described in its 2021 WMP, SCE estimates a 25% reduction in ignitions in high fire risk areas by 2022 as compared to 2020, assuming the same conditions as experienced in 2020. SCE continues to improve its public safety power shutoff, or PSPS operations, with public safety being the paramount consideration. SCE uses PSPS only when conditions warrant. Let me underscore the need for PSPS, despite the hardships it creates. By noting that in 2019 and 2020, post-PSPS patrols found at least 60 incidents of wind-related damage that could have potentially caused ignitions. In 2020, the installation of more weather stations and sectionalization devices, paired with the automation of existing devices, all enabled SCE to limit PSPS footprints wherever possible, based on risk assessments, achieving a 22% reduction in customer minutes of interruption. All that said, SCE recognizes there are opportunities to further improve the execution of PSPS and better support its customers. That was loud and clear in the January 19 letter from President Batjer, and in the CPUC and community input that SCE leaders received during the 4.5-hour PSPS hearing on January 26, all this especially underscored the need to improve SCE’s communications with customers, and the PSPS Action Plan filed on February 12 includes important near-term commitments to use this essential tool of last resort in a way that shows better care for our customers. Beyond SCE, the state has been building on significant investments in its firefighting capabilities. In his 2021-2022 budget, the Governor proposed an additional $1 billion to support a coordinated forest health and fire prevention strategy that maximizes technology and science-based approaches to protect state lands. This includes prioritizing firebreaks around high-risk communities and grants for individual homeowners to harden their properties. Recognizing the need to move quickly, the Governor also proposed that $323 million out of that $1 billion would be for early action to start these prevention projects before the next fire season. For fire suppression, the budget adds funding to support 30 additional statewide fire crews and seven large air tankers. The state will continue phasing in Black Hawk helicopters, with seven expected to be in operation this fire season and another five in 2022. These new suppression resources will help the state move more quickly to combat wildfires before they become catastrophic. The Governor and the California Insurance Commission also announced a plan to establish statewide standards for home and community hardening that will reduce wildfire risk, and help make insurance available and affordable to residents and businesses. Shifting to past wildfires, SCE has made significant progress toward resolving pending litigation. Last month, SCE resolved all insurance subrogation claims in the pending 2018 Woolsey Fire litigation. The utility continues to make solid progress settling remaining individual plaintiff claims across the 2017 and 2018 Wildfire and Mudslide Events. In total, SCE has resolved approximately two-thirds of the best estimate of total losses established last September. Maria will provide an update on the equity financing needs related to these events later on the call. Turning to regulatory actions. We welcome the reappointment of CPUC President Batjer for a six-year term, subject to confirmation by the Senate. President Batjer’s leadership has energized the Commission’s implementation of the state’s greenhouse gas emission reduction goals. Yesterday, the CPUC hosted an en banc to share ideas about affordability across many stakeholders. Given the economic impacts of COVID-19, this is a timely discussion and it follows on many years of SCE leadership to manage system average rate growth well below the other California utilities, which we were proud to see acknowledged by the Commission staff report and others. The discussion reinforced many of the issues we have raised in our Pathway 2045 analysis, including that the grid investments needed to decarbonize the economy and improve local air quality through clean energy and electrification may increase electric costs but will actually result in greater affordability and equity, with the average customer spending 30% less across all forms of energy in 2045 than they do today, thanks to the greater efficiency of electric technologies. Looking ahead, SCE is planning for the critical role it plays in sustainability, particularly from the unique vantage point of a wires-focused business. This will include significant capital investment opportunities to support the electrification of transportation and buildings, as outlined in SCE’s Pathway 2045 and Reimagining the Grid white papers. The Governor’s budget proposal also underscores this with its proposed $1.5 billion comprehensive strategy to achieve zero-emission vehicle goals by 2035 and 2045. This includes infrastructure investments for, and improved access to, new and used zero-emission vehicles. SCE has received CPUC approval for over $800 million to support electric vehicles, including investing in electric charging infrastructure for light, medium, and heavy-duty vehicles. The utility launched its Charge Ready 2 program, the largest light-duty EV charging program by an investor-owned utility in the United States, which will support approximately 38,000 light-duty charging ports. Charge Ready Transport, SCE’s program to build charging infrastructure for medium and heavy-duty vehicles, will grow through 2024, eventually building charging infrastructure to power 8,500 electric medium and heavy-duty vehicles. SCE has also committed to a long-term goal to electrify its own vehicle fleet, including 100% of all light-duty vehicles by 2030. In the area of building electrification, SCE launched new programs in 2020 to incentivize heat pump installations and expects to continue to expand these offerings going forward. Before I conclude, I would like to say that I am just very, very proud of what our employees accomplished over the last year, in spite of the COVID-19 pandemic. COVID-19 has reshaped the way that all of us do business and how we interact with our customers and communities, and we adapted to continue delivering an essential service. We cared for each other, whether working in the field or teleworking; we cared for our customers, providing relief for those facing economic challenges; and we cared for our communities and their safety. Looking forward, I am excited about our near and long-term business opportunities. SCE is well-positioned as an electric-only utility, with investments highly aligned with the state’s and now the federal government’s long-term decarbonization goals. We will continue to accelerate our wildfire mitigation efforts, while building toward an equitable clean energy future. With that, Maria will provide her financial report.
Maria Rigatti:
Thanks, Pedro. Good afternoon, everyone. My comments today will cover fourth quarter 2020 results, our capital expenditure and rate base forecasts, and an update on our financing plans for 2021. Edison International reported core earnings of $1.19 per share for the fourth quarter 2020, an increase of $0.20 per share from the same period last year. Full year 2020 core EPS was $4.52, which exceeded the midpoint of our initial guidance range and is within the narrowed range we updated on our last earnings call. Core EPS of $4.52 was lower than $4.70 a year ago, and the decline was due to $0.44 of equity share dilution. On an operational basis excluding dilution, core EPS was $0.26 higher, driven by strong performance at SCE. On page 3, you can see SCE’s key fourth quarter EPS drivers on the right hand side. I would like to highlight four items that accounted for much of the variance. First, EPS increased by $0.16 related to higher revenue. CPUC-related revenue contributed $0.22 of this increase due to the escalation mechanism from the 2018 GRC decision. There was also a negative variance of $0.11, primarily related to benefits captured in our tax balancing account. This is offset in the income tax line, with no effect on earnings. FERC and other operating revenue had a positive variance of $0.05, largely due to higher rate base. Second, O&M had a positive variance of $0.11, primarily due to higher regulatory deferrals related to wildfire mitigation activities and customer uncollectibles, and from approval of the GRC track 2 settlement. Third, depreciation had a negative variance of $0.07 due to higher rate base. Lastly, SCE’s EPS in the quarter was lower by $0.07 because of dilution from the increase in shares outstanding, primarily associated with the equity offering in May 2020. I would now like to comment on SCE’s capital expenditure and rate base growth forecasts, which are shown on page 4. We continue to see opportunities to significantly grow SCE’s rate base, driven by investments in electric infrastructure. The capital program reflects expenditures of $15 billion to $16 billion between 2021 and 2023. This represents compound annual rate base growth of 7.6% over two rate case periods at the request level. Our total CapEx forecast during this period is unchanged as we are awaiting a proposed decision in SCE’s 2021 GRC track 1. In 2020, SCE’s capital spending was $5.5 billion, approximately $400 million higher than forecast, primarily as a result of higher fire restoration costs. For 2021, SCE has developed and will execute against a robust capital plan that targets key programs while maintaining flexibility in later years to adapt to levels authorized in the final GRC decision. Please turn to page 5. While the Commission’s schedule calls for a proposed decision this quarter on track 1 of SCE’s 2021 GRC, based on the level of inquiry to date from the CPUC, compared to our past experience, we believe it is unlikely that SCE will receive a PD by the end of the first quarter. We remain hopeful that SCE will receive a PD in the second quarter. As a reminder, the CPUC can vote out a final decision no sooner than 30 days after it issues a proposed decision. Consistent with our prior practice, we will issue earnings guidance after we receive a final decision on the GRC. Page 6 shows a summary of the substantial progress on receiving approvals for recovery of incremental wildfire mitigation costs. SCE expects to receive over $1 billion of cash flow through September 2022 as the utility implements CPUC approvals. This is in addition to ongoing securitization of AB 1054 capital. You may recall that, last quarter, the CPUC issued a financing order authorizing SCE to securitize the first tranche of AB 1054 capital expenditures, approved in the Grid Safety & Resiliency Plan settlement. Yesterday, SCE successfully closed that securitization, issuing $338 million of AAA-rated recovery bonds. The proceeds will be used to repay short-term borrowings issued for AB 1054 capital expenditures. In January, the CPUC approved SCE’s GRC track 2 settlement, which allows SCE to request another financing order to securitize the approved AB 1054 capital expenditures and recover the O&M expense. Additionally, SCE filed a WEMA application for wildfire insurance premiums for the second half of 2020. If approved, SCE will recover $215 million beginning January 2022. I would now like to provide an update on the approximately $1 billion equity issuance that we have discussed previously. As Pedro noted, SCE has been making significant progress resolving pending wildfire-related litigation and, thus far, has settled claims that represent approximately two-thirds of the best estimate that we established. We continue to ground our financing plan in a framework that supports investment grade ratings by targeting consolidated FFO-to-debt in the 15% to 17% range. To support this outcome, EIX will issue securities with up to $1 billion of equity content in 2021, consistent with the previously identified need. We will consider a range of options to achieve this equity content, including preferred equity, internal programs, and if needed, our existing ATM program. We will be flexible regarding the specific timing and monitor market conditions to efficiently finance the need. Beyond this year, we expect to have minimal equity needs associated with our ongoing capital program and will quantify these after receiving a final decision in the 2021 GRC. Overall, the company is well-positioned to achieve the growth associated with the safety and resiliency investments being made in the grid and the longer-term opportunity associated with our clean energy objectives. That concludes our remarks.
Sam Ramraj:
Missy, please open the call for questions. As a reminder, we request you to limit yourself to one question and one follow-up, so everyone in line has the opportunity to ask questions.
Operator:
Yes, sir. [Operator Instructions] First question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Bank of America.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Perhaps if I can start with the balance sheet here. I’m just curious to get a little bit of an update, I appreciate your remarks, but curious on how you would characterize the conversations with the rating agencies, and where you stand with cushion? I know GRC is outstanding. But ,if you can provide any context as to how you think about your metrics relative to what the agencies are thinking about, would really appreciate any commentary here. And again, I appreciate perhaps commenting around perhaps the proposed GRC your filing for instance.
Maria Rigatti:
Sure, Julien. As you can probably imagine, we are talking to rating agencies all the time. We are talking to them about our operational risk mitigation as well as just what’s going on more generally in California, and providing them with updates as we have with all of you on where the settlements landed back last year and all of that. So, we’ve been having those sorts of conversations. As we’ve mentioned before, we think that the equity plan that we have in place, or the financing plan that we have had in place and announced last year, is very supportive of the FFO-to-debt range that we’re targeting and supportive of investment-grade ratings. I’m sure you’ve read all the recent reports that the agencies have put out. The metrics on a look back basis are skinny, but that’s why the plan to issue equity and to move forward with that, so that we can support the balance sheet appropriately.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. I appreciate it. And then, if I can pivot over to the PSPS commentary, I appreciate what you guys provided in the remarks. Can you elaborate a little bit on the action plan and the expectations for response from CPUC around their inquiry with respect to the PSPS events from the last year here? So, what should we expect in terms of process at a minimum, if anything?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes. Hey. I’ll start with this, and Maria may have more. Kevin Payne is also on the line, so he can add as he sees fit. So, just a process, you saw the letter that President Batjer sent, he monitored the hearing that the PUC had for Kevin and Steve Powell and other members of the team participated. That provided a lot of, frankly, good helpful input from commissioners and communities and other state agencies. Based on that, SCE developed the action plan that has a series of steps and commitments. You saw there are some things in there around or, frankly, continuing work on trying to minimize just the impact and scope of PSPS. I would put that in the category of work that’s been going on and continues, right? Areas like continue to be poised for sectionalization and tend to work on continuous improvement of weather modeling and the like to -- just really to help to narrow the gap between the approach we have, which is frankly the right approach for SCE to have of notifying customers, based on forecast conditions, but then the energizing on real-time conditions. But the more that we can narrow the gap between a number of customers that get notified versus those to get the energized by having better and better forecasting and modeling, that helps. So, you saw some actions around those lines. But, say, a lot of the focus was really on how do we help the SCE team better improve the communications process, communications with the emergency agencies, with government, with community leaders, with end use customers. And so, you saw a number of actions around that. In terms of process, there’s going to be a series of meetings every couple of weeks for the next while with commission staff, just to continue to keep them updated. SCE has taken the step of now dedicating a vice president to PSPS, who’s frankly a pretty strong leader, and he’s moving from the T&D business to over the next few months, spend all of this time, along with the dedicated team, on the PSPS improvement approach. So, that’s -- I’d say, it’s somewhat in formal process. And then there’s the action plan, more formality to rate and formal discussions with the commission on how it’s going along and check-ins with them. But frankly, wanting to make sure that the SCE team can move on all the elements and meet its commitments. Kevin, anything you would add there?
Kevin Payne:
I think, you covered it really well, Pedro, the pieces of the action plan and also the process with the commission. So, good.
Operator:
Next question comes from Jonathan Arnold from Vertical Research.
Jonathan Arnold:
Just if I could ask one on the success you’ve had with settling the legacy wildfire claims and appreciate the quantification in simple terms around the two-third. But are you seeing any change in the pace of being able to move these things along, now that you reached the subrogation settlement with Woolsey, if anything you can report sort of latest update, Pedro?
Pedro Pizarro:
I’ll give you a quick answer. Maria may have more. The remaining plaintiffs are largely the individual plaintiffs, it’s just by the nature of that you’re not talking about thousands of individual cases. In many cases, multiple individual plaintiffs might be represented by a common legal counsel, and so you might see all packages of settlements that can be done. But, it’s just a more time-intensive, laborious process to work to that. There is a more formal process that’s been established on the Thomas, Koenigstein, Mudslides cases. We’re working through that. We’re working with individual plaintiffs in the Woolsey cases. And so, it’s just harder to pin down a timeframe for that, Jonathan. But, the team is going at it and frankly has a good steady pace of progress. And so, I think, from an investor perspective, you’ll see the outcome of that every quarter as we update the kinds of numbers that we shared with you today. What did I miss in there, Maria?
Maria Rigatti:
No. I think that’s it, Pedro. I mean, we have a process on Thomas, Koenigstein and Mudslides. We are trying to move with various plaintiffs. It’s not going to be sort of an endpoint that we can pinpoint for you exactly, Jonathan. But as Pedro pointed out, we’ll be updating that every quarter. So, you’ll see the progress as it occurs.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. So, that slide 9 is going to be a live thing effectively?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes, very much so. And just to put a fine point on it, don’t expect a big bang when it comes to individual plaintiff cases. You should expect just continued natural progress, because it’s case by case. And those cases are all very individualized, different stories, facts and circumstances for a homeowner in this kind of area versus a business owner in that kind of area.
Jonathan Arnold:
I think this is a good way of helping people track it. That’s it. I appreciate that.
Pedro Pizarro:
Well, thanks for the feedback. That’s helpful.
Jonathan Arnold:
I’ll just ask one other thing. You’ve obviously said that the GRC PD might not come until the second quarter. At what sort of point does the delay start to affect your decision-making about spending capital and sort of throwing you off a bit as has happened in the past? I mean, how long a delay could you sort of work with?
Maria Rigatti:
Well, obviously, we like to know sooner rather than later. But, from an operational perspective, what we’ve done this year, which is what we’ve done in the past, in the first year of the GRCs cycle as well, is we just plan the work. We’re going to do the work. We’re going to progress against it. You can see that the capital plan is very robust in 2021. But, we have the flexibility in the back end to adjust, based on what the final decision comes out with. So, I think, we have degrees of freedom there. Again, we’d still like to get the decision sooner rather than later. But, from an operational perspective, I think, we have it well in hand.
Operator:
Next question comes from Steve Fleishman from Wolfe Research.
Steve Fleishman:
Just on the comments on the GRC timing, you mentioned that based on the CPUC questioning later. Is it just a lot more questions than normal or just the timing of things? Just any more color on that comment, please?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes. It’s really more about timing by -- we have experienced with these cases every three years, I guess now it will be every four years after this one. And so, as the PD is getting put together, and as the commission staff go through the analysis they need to do, you typically see different pace and nature of questions as you get closer to the PD. And we haven’t really seen a lot of that yet at this point. So, that’s what suggests to us that PD is not likely imminent within the quarter. So, it’s really about -- there’s just a different set of questions, kinds of questions that you get, as you’re getting down to that final evaluation and writing of the PERIOD, and staff don’t seem to be quite at that point yet.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay, great. That’s helpful. Thank you. And then, with respect to the equity commentary, I think, you said $1 billion of equity content. So, that’s, I guess, if you did preferreds or some things that are not full equity content, you’re kind of saying focus on equity content, not total dollars. Is that the way to think about that?
Maria Rigatti:
That’s right. As we’ve said in the past, we are trying to think about this very holistically, monitor market conditions. So, when we talk about equity content, it’s the equity content that we’re targeting. So, absolutely right, Steve.
Steve Fleishman:
Yes. One last question along those lines. I’m sure you saw that PG&E did this transmission tower sale of access to SBA. Is that something that you could potentially look at as well?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes. So, we did see the transaction and it’s interesting. So, the team has been learning about it. There maybe be somewhat different circumstances for SCE, and that we do have obviously, transmission towers with attachments on them already today, like [indiscernible]. In our case, they’re part of a bit more comprehensive telecom business. Edison [ph] Care Solutions, which is essentially a competitive telco inside the utility, that not only does sell antenna attachments, but also has managed fiber services, dark fiber as well as lit fiber, providing bandwidth to carriers. And so in SCE’s case, there’s that broader telecom business. It also operates under a little different framework. I noticed that there’s some revenue sharing that the PG&E deal contemplates. The SCE’s business operates under a different revenue sharing mechanism. So there’s just a number of different bolts and whistles that are made for just different maturity of the business and different scope and scale today. So, the PG&E transaction might not be fully transferable or applicable.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay, great. Thanks for that. Thank you.
Pedro Pizarro:
You might be surprised. I said so much about the telecom business, but it’s because I used to run it like 20 years ago, so.
Operator:
Next question comes from Jeremy Tonet from JP Morgan.
Jeremy Tonet:
I just want to go back to slide 9 for a minute there. And you discussed that after the Woolsey recoveries, you expect to exhaust the insurance. Can you file for CPUC recovery of settlements, or are there other kind of gating items that we should be thinking about here?
Maria Rigatti:
Yes. So, if you look to the past as sort of an indicator, our experience has been that the Commission generally wants to understand sort of the quantum of the ask before they make decisions around recovery. So, I think, we have a little ways to go still to get a total size of the ask that we would make ultimately to the CPUC. Obviously, we said before that for prudently incurred cost, we will be asking for recovery. At this point, based on history and prior precedents, we can’t say that that was probable recovery, which is why we took the charge a couple of years ago. But, that’s generally the framework that the Commission has.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. That’s very helpful. Thanks. And just thinking about PSPS discussions and just the environment in the state right now, just wondering if you might be able to comment on how you see overall kind of relationships, political risk currently in the state. Any thoughts you could provide would be helpful.
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes. I’m happy to chip in on that. Look, I think, the headline is that we continue to view California as one of the most constructive states in the country when it comes to utility, the regulation, right? And it’s both because of the backward-looking and current mechanisms like the fact that we have our forward-looking rate cases, we have the balancing accounts for elements like procurement purchases -- energy procurement, I should say. We have decoupling, right? So, you have a number of elements that have been here for quite a while that make for a constructive environment. You also have, frankly, looking more towards the future, a state that’s been fairly aggressive in terms of wanting to push the edge of technology and have as wanted utilities to play a significant role in advancing the ball for the sector, right? For the benefit of California customers. That’s meant that utilities has to take on some added operational risks in managing more distributed resources than our peers in other states or -- and having deeper penetration renewables or being earlier in the curve around storage and the like. And that has lent itself to providing an opportunity for ROEs that have reflected a premium based on those risks that we are being asked to manage. And then,, finally, looking solidly, well out in the future, it’s a state that is really committed to decarbonizing the economy. And so, you’ve seen through our papers like a Pathway 2045 and remanaging the grid papers that we see that that decarbonization getting to net zero for the state will require a significant ramp-up in renewable and other carbon-free resources along with storage. This will lead to a dramatic increase in load across the state, 60% or so increase in order to then electrify a lot of the economy, and that all requires a really robust grid with significant more investment than what we have in place today to make that all happen. So, that all adds up to a good opportunity for utilities. Now, by the way, it’s also a good opportunity for the customer, because as I said in my prepared remarks, we see all of that been leading ultimately to a 30% decline in the total energy cost that the average customer has in 2045. It may put some pressure on utility bills, but it will help bring down overall cost for the customer and make the states more affordable. Now, that said, there are always bumps in the road. There are things that can give pause. The wildfire experience has been a challenging one over the last several years. We’ve had a lot of encouragement in getting items like AB 1054 to help create a restored framework. We’re still going through implementation of that. I know that there’s some discount that the utilities are carrying today relative to our peers in other states. And hopefully, over time, as investors see that the framework is working, that the physical risks are being mitigated and that the structure is there to help mitigate the financials, that will help to get investors fully comfortable with that and better align the value of California opportunities for the long-term opportunity that we have. One final item is there’s a lot going on, and it’s all going on in the middle of COVID. So, I feel for the CPUC staff, the 800 or so of them have a lot on their plates. I think President Batjer, as I’ve mentioned in the comments, has done a great leadership and focusing the Commission on that clean energy future. I think, generally, she’s also helped the Commission to, in general, be timely in its session, and you saw that in elements like the Track 2 success we had recently, but there’s a lot on their plate. So, while I’m a little disappointed that we may not end up seeing a GRC Track 1 PD this quarter, I know that they’re on the case, and they recognize the importance of overall timely decisions. And then, when it comes to PSPS, there has been some tough feedback we got. So, a lot of it frankly was merited. And it’s a good learning opportunity, and I commend Kevin Payne and the team at SCE for having sat there for 4.5 hours and listened, and take a note and reflected good feedback in the PSPS action plan that SCE filed. So, there will be bumps in the road in any relationship. But I think, overall, if you look at maybe a couple of trees, they get in the way now and then. But if you look at the forest, it’s a really interesting forest for the long term.
Jonathan Arnold:
Got it. That’s very helpful there. And maybe picking up with electrifying, specific to the transportation sector there, you spoke about this in the past, you spoke about it in your prepared remarks. Just wondering, if you could provide some perspective I guess for the EV outlook. How it looks today versus maybe a couple of years ago, and kind of down the future, how big do you think this opportunity is for EIX?
Pedro Pizarro:
So, we started talking about this a few years ago. We had our Charge Ready application. I think, our Pathway 2045 paper at the time was forecasting something like a need for 7 million electric vehicles in California by 2030. At the time -- or shortly after, I think the state was talking about a $5 million mark. Since then, you’ve seen the state really look at doubling down on the electric vehicles and progress like Governor Newsom’s executive order for zero-emission vehicles -- 100% zero-emission vehicle sales by 2035. That says something right there about the growing commitment by the state, and frankly driven by growing realization that that is a key tool and one of the most affordable tools to get to decarbonization at the end of the day. The other angle, I’d share on this is, then there’s the market, right? And so, when we start talking about this, there was the vote. Remember, when I got my first vote in 2011 and that new model year, my colleagues were driving some of the first Telas, a whole lot of EVs out. Now, you’re looking at a rollout -- I was reading one of the latest articles where I think over the next year, there’s going to be, what, something like 20 or 30 new model offerings across auto OEMs and it’s an area where U.S. automakers are realizing that if they don’t run fast, they could lose leadership to Chinese automakers or European automakers. So, seeing things like Ford’s commitment of $20-some-billion investment towards EVs over the next several years, seeing GM’s aspiration to not have internal combustion engines anymore in a decade or so, that is a very different landscape from where we started four, five years ago. And it tells you that this is happening, it’s real, and I suspect, like other technology innovations, like the deployment of cell phones, folks maybe surprised by how quickly that escrow takes off.
Operator:
Next question comes from Michael Lapides from Goldman Sachs.
Michael Lapides:
A little bit of housekeeping question. So, capital spend for 2020 came in about $500 million higher than what you all had put out when you reported third quarter earnings or just after third quarter earnings. First of all, what drove that $400 million to $500 million being done just so quickly? And then, second of all, does that all -- is there any change in the capital spend program potentially in terms of what you think about long-haul transmission related spend, or do you think you’re still in a five or seven-year cycle where there’s more maintenance work on the transmission grid, there’s not a lot of new sizable scale development there?
Maria Rigatti:
I’ll go take the first piece, at least, a little bit of a second, and I’ll let Pedro also chime in on his thoughts in long-haul transmission. But, so that delta in the capital spending between last quarter and this quarter was largely driven by wildfire restoration costs. So, you will recall that late last year, there were a number of large fires in our service territory, particularly up in the northern part of our service territory around Big Creek. And so, a lot of the spend that’s been going on since then has been to really get all of those facilities back into service and to repair them, et cetera. So, that’s really the driver there, Michael. We have to go through an analysis and see sort of what in there was otherwise going to have been replaced or upgraded, et cetera, what’s incremental, but that’s largely the capital change from last quarter. In terms of transmission, and we’re still in the cycle. I think, obviously, the state is planning for the future, the future that Pedro just described in his earlier remarks. And we have to look to the CAISO to do that planning. There’s obviously a lot of work going on around the need as well, both in the integrated resource plan -- integrated resource plans as well as well as CAISO. But, I’ll let Pedro share his thoughts as well.
Pedro Pizarro:
Just maybe a quick sound, like Maria has said, again, you may have heard me share this before, Michael, from our Pathway 2045 analysis. But, that analysis estimated that California would need to add 80 gigawatts of bulk power kind of wholesale level renewables and 30 gigawatts of wholesale bulk power level storage by 2045. That’s in addition to 30 gigawatts of distributed generation and 10 gigawatts of distributed behind-the-meter storage. But, all that would require something like $175 billion investment for the resource side for the renewables and storage side. And the counterpart to that is that you need something like $70 billion in why your site investment, with most of that being for transmission, whether it’s new lines or enhancing of current lines. Now, that’s state wide, right? So, that’s not all SCE, but that just gives you a sense of how big the investment need will be in order to accommodate that electrified future to decarbonize economy. And then as a reminder that, under the current per quarter 1,000 structure, if the Cal ISO determines that an existing line needs to be upgraded, and the utility has right of first refusal to do that upgrade on its line. Line has been already --owns and operates. If it’s a brand-new line, that’s not an extension of an existing line, then that is bid out competitively. And I would expect the utility to seek to compete with third parties for that new build. So, hard to quantify what the specific SCE opportunity will be from all of that. But, it’s clearly a very large pie that will need to be met across the state. And I expect that SCE will certainly play a significant role within its territory for that.
Michael Lapides:
When do you think we could start seeing that roll into three or four year -- three to five-year forecast piece? Like, when do you think the southern part of the state might actually start to need it?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes. That’s a really good question. I’m not sure I’m going to have a sharp answer for you right now, Michael, partly because the Cal ISO, I don’t think, has turned the crank yet on the underlying analysis for what lines and in what timing? My guess is that -- or my sense is, not guess, my sense from the analysis is that a lot of that spend may be post 2030 spend because that’s when you really see the load pick up too. In our analysis, load, which has been fairly flat statewide to slightly declining for the last decade, through 2030, interestingly, continues to be fairly flattish, right? Because you have a lot of electrification between now and 2030 being counterbalanced by continued distributed generation deployment as well as continued energy efficiency. But, we see a big elbow -- turn in the curve, upswing post 2030. And that’s where the state really picks up the bulk of that 60% load increase that I talked about before. It really happens mostly between 2030 and 2045. So, that may suggest that a good chunk of that build maybe post that. But, in the meantime, you’ve seen our capital spend so far. As Maria described, we had a bump up from just that Creek Fire restoration last year. So, I hope we don’t have to do fire restoration for any future fires. But we continue to say that we see an ongoing opportunity for significant capital spend, just for the core capital investment in the utility. And so, I -- to think about the long-haul transmission, that becomes an adder that certainly supports the long-term growth for the Company.
Operator:
That was our last question. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Sam Ramraj for final remarks.
Sam Ramraj:
Thank you for joining us today. And please call if you have any follow-up questions. This concludes the conference call. Have a good rest of the day and stay safe. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good afternoon and welcome to the Edison International Third Quarter 2020 Financial Teleconference. My name is Michelle and I will be your operator today. [Operator Instructions] Today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Sam Ramraj, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Ramraj, you may begin your conference.
Sam Ramraj:
Thank you, Michelle, and welcome, everyone. Our speakers today are President and Chief Executive Officer, Pedro Pizarro; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Maria Rigatti. Also on the call are other members of the management team. I would like to mention that we are doing this call with our executives in different locations. So, please bear with us if we experience any technical difficulties. Materials supporting today's call are available at www.edisoninvestor.com. These include a Form 10-Q, prepared remarks from Pedro and Maria, and the teleconference presentation. Tomorrow, we will distribute our regular business update presentation. During this call, we'll make forward-looking statements about the outlook for Edison International and its subsidiaries. Actual results could differ materially from current expectations. Important factors that could cause different results are set forth in our SEC filings. Please read these carefully. The presentation includes certain outlook assumptions, as well as reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure. During the question-and-answer session, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. I will now turn the call over to Pedro.
Pedro Pizarro:
Well, thank you Sam, and good afternoon, everyone. Today, Edison International reported core earnings per share of $1.67 for the third quarter 2020, is up $0.17 compared to the same period last year. This increase was primarily due to higher CPUC-related revenue from the 2018 GRC escalation mechanism, and lower expenses from regulatory deferrals related to wildfire mitigation activities, partially offset by equity share dilution. Reflecting our strong year-to-date performance and our confidence in the outlook for the year, we are narrowing our 2020 guidance range to $4.47 to $4.62 by raising the low-end $0.10. Maria will discuss our financial performance in detail in her report. We continue to address the numerous impacts of COVID-19 on our operations, customers, and communities. At the same time, we recognize that climate change is driving unprecedented weather conditions and catastrophic wildfires in California. And the State is in the midst of another active wildfire season. Our thoughts are with the communities and families impacted, and we are thankful for the first responders who have worked tirelessly to contain the fires and protect the lives and property of Californians. At Edison, safety remains our first and highest priority. SCE continues implementing measures to reduce wildfire risk, working closely with local first responders and emergency managers, and communicating regularly with customers to improve awareness and promote preparedness. On the California legislative front, this year's session was shortened due to COVID-19. The Legislature prioritized the State's COVID-19 response and wildfire risk reduction. The Governor signed several pieces of legislation that build on the State's investments in firefighting personnel, and technology and fuels management projects. I am also pleased that 2 issues advocated by SCE
Maria Rigatti:
Thank you, Pedro. Edison International reported core earnings of $1.67 per share for the third quarter 2020, an increase of $0.17 per share from the same period last year. This increase was primarily due to higher CPUC-related revenue due to the 2018 GRC escalation mechanism and lower expenses from regulatory deferrals related to wildfire mitigation activities. These were partially offset by equity share dilution. Reflecting our solid results for the first 9 months of the year, we are once again narrowing our guidance range by raising the low end of our 2020 EPS estimate. I will discuss this in more detail later in my remarks. On Page 2, you can see SCE's key EPS drivers on the right-hand side. I would like to highlight 4 items that accounted for much of the variance. First, EPS increased by $0.43 related to higher revenue. CPUC-related revenue contributed $0.25 of this increase due to the escalation mechanism from the 2018 GRC decision. FERC and other operating revenue had a negative variance of $0.05, largely because of the true-up for the 2018 Formula Rate case we recorded last year. There was also a positive variance of $0.23 primarily related to the balancing account for the GSRP settlement that was approved in April. However, there were offsets in expenses related to this variance. Second, O&M had a positive variance of $0.08, primarily due to recognizing lower wildfire mitigation expenses as a result of deferrals to regulatory assets. Third, income taxes had a negative impact of $0.13, primarily reflecting lower tax benefits captured through our tax balancing account. Lastly, SCE's EPS in the quarter was lower by $0.16 because of dilution from the increase in shares outstanding. On Page 3, you will see SCE's capital expenditure and rate base forecast. CapEx is consistent with last quarter's forecast for 2021 through 2023, with a slight increase to 2020. Additionally, we updated the rate base forecast primarily for Charge Ready 2 and GRC rebuttal testimony. We continue to see significant opportunities to grow rate base over time, driven by investments in electric infrastructure, and this is reflected in our robust capital program of $20 billion to $21 billion over this period. This request level represents a compound annual growth rate of 7.6% in rate base over 2 rate case periods. After applying a 10% reduction to the total capital forecast to reflect our experience of previously authorized amounts and other operational considerations, the low end of the range still reflects a strong rate base growth of 6.6%. Please turn to Page 4. Track 1 of the 2021 GRC proceeding has been on schedule and during the quarter, all related briefs were completed. We are now waiting for a decision and continue to expect that in first quarter 2021. To emphasize our previous statements, SCE's core business will require minimal equity to fund our ongoing capital expenditures program beyond 2020. We will be able to quantify these levels after we receive the final approval of the GRC. Page 5 summarizes our progress on SCE's cost recovery filings for incremental 2018 and 2019 wildfire mitigation costs. In April, SCE received CPUC approval for the GSRP settlement, which authorized recovery of $476 million of capital and $123 million of O&M. The decision approved a revenue requirement of $159 million, which went into rates on October 1. The balance of the capital costs that were approved will be recovered as we securitize amounts related to wildfire mitigation, as authorized in AB 1054. In September, the WEMA application to recover $505 million of costs for wildfire insurance was approved. This is now included in rates and will be recovered over the next 24 months. Importantly, the CPUC noted in its decision that SCE had acted reasonably and prudently in its procurement of insurance policies. The Commission also recognized that wildfire liability insurance serves as an important protection for customers against third-party legal claims invoking the inverse condemnation doctrine and allegations of negligence. These decisions enable SCE to recover approximately $665 million of cash over the next 2 years and further strengthen its balance sheet and credit metrics. In addition, the CPUC recently issued a proposed decision on SCE's application to securitize the GSRP capital noted above. When the financing is completed, it will add approximately $335 million to the cash position. SCE and all intervenors reached a confidential settlement-in-principle regarding all issues in Track 2 of the 2021 GRC. Once a definitive settlement is executed, a motion will be filed with the CPUC seeking approval. SCE expects a proposed decision on the track 2 settlement in Q1 2021. We will record the impact of the settlement once the commission acts and do not expect a negative earnings impact. I will highlight a number of other pending filings and future applications related to wildfire mitigation costs. First, we are due to receive a decision on our CEMA filing for certain drought and restoration costs in first quarter 2021. In the next few months, we also anticipate filing a WEMA application for excess insurance premium costs for July through December 2020. Finally, we will make our GRC track 3 filing in first quarter 2021, with a proposed decision expected a year later. As for other regulatory actions during the quarter, the CPUC approved SCE's Charge Ready 2 program, which supports approximately 38,000 light-duty EV charging ports. This is the largest light-duty EV charging program by an investor-owned utility in the U.S., and will add approximately $400 million to SCE's rate base by 2026. Turning to guidance, Pages 6 and 7 show our updated 2020 guidance and the key assumptions for modeling purposes. Let me highlight that we are once again narrowing our full year 2020 EPS guidance range to $4.47 to $4.62 per share by raising the low end of the range. This also increases the midpoint of the EPS range by $0.05 to $4.55. While most of the earnings assumptions are essentially unchanged from the last quarter, there are a couple of factors driving the majority of this upward revision. First, we now expect SCE earnings to be $0.04 higher than our previous assumption. This is driven by improvements of $0.01 in rate base earnings and $0.03 from SCE variances related to the timing of financing activities as well as operational items. Second, the EIX Parent and Other forecast has improved by $0.01 versus our previous estimate. These factors and our strong performance so far this year make us increasingly confident in our narrowed 2020 EPS guidance range. Last month, we issued a news release about the September 2020 subrogation settlement and noted that we anticipate issuing approximately $1 billion of equity to invest in SCE, enabling the utility to debt finance wildfire claims payments. Since then, many of you have asked questions about the timing of the equity issuance. As we shared with you, we will provide an update on the fourth quarter 2020 earnings call. The timing of the equity issuance will be dependent upon the timing of future claims resolutions and payments that exceed insurance. And that concludes our remarks.
Sam Ramraj:
Michelle, please open the call for questions. As a reminder, we request you to limit yourself to 1 question and 1 follow-up, so everyone in line has the opportunity to ask questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Jonathan Arnold with Vertical Research Partner. You may go ahead, sir.
Jonathan Arnold:
Good afternoon, guys. Thank you.
Pedro Pizarro:
Hi, Jonathan.
Maria Rigatti:
Hi, Jonathan.
Jonathan Arnold:
Could I just ask a question on the September announcement, and the - which, obviously, was mentioned now? And particularly, of the $6.2 billion that is now your accrual, could you give us any sense, Pedro, sort of how - what proportion of that is effectively settled or agreed, and then how much is still subject to estimate or extrapolation, just sort of some directional sense of how you arrived at that being the estimate, as opposed to the low-end these days?
Pedro Pizarro:
Sure. Thanks, Jonathan. Maria can fill in the numbers here. But in terms of the categories, you've seen the major announcement so far, the various settlements that we have announced, 1 last fall with the public entities, and now the subrogation parties in this latest settlement. In addition, there's been, I think, we've shared that there's been settlements with a number of private parties, private plaintiffs, but those are small, relative to the thousands of plaintiffs in the individual cases. So that's - based on that, and we can probably give you the precise number that we disclose that's included in the settlements. But in the writing of the best estimate, what we did was, you have the benefits of now having those major settlements under our wings, all right, and behind us. And then, in addition to that, going through the discovery process on the rest of the claims, we're deeper into the discovery process, we think have a better understanding of the facts at hand, and what our arguments would be. We have an understanding of some of the counterarguments that various classes of plaintiffs might have. And that just gives us a better ability to now move from the low-ends to the best estimate. There are still assumptions in there. And we disclose that the final result could be higher or lower. And we're not able to disclose an uncertainty band around it, Jonathan. But our hope and expectation is that by now moving from the low-end to a best estimate that, we're no longer talking about being on one end of the roadway, we're now right down the middle of the roadway. And I know that investors will be probably making assumptions or having their own expectations about what that uncertainty band might be. Again, we're not in a place to be able to communicate that. But what we've given you is our best estimate or best sense of what a final outcome would look like, on the benefit of not only things that we've locked down, but facts that we now better understand to through the litigation process. Maria, I don't know if you want to give - if you have a handy kind of percent.
Maria Rigatti:
Yeah, I think just the only thing, Jonathan, maybe that's left with your question is you were I think asking about which portion of that amount is the subject? I think the way I interpret is the subject of the subrogation claims settlement that we reached, and that's about $1.2 billion.
Jonathan Arnold:
I know that, Maria. I was looking for not just overall how much of it is known versus estimated.
Pedro Pizarro:
Yeah, Maria, I guess that the answer to Jonathan's question would be that you take the $6-billion-plus gross amount, and then point him to the settlement that we just entered for $1.2 billion, the settlement that we had last fall, which was on the order of $1 billion, the claims, or $1 billion in the settlement was, call it, a third or so of that. So round numbers would be - Maria, you probably have a more precise number, $1.5 billion or so, $1.6 billion.
Maria Rigatti:
Yeah, I guess, I would probably just go back to, what we have recorded on the books right now is the total recorded liability, Jonathan. The portion of that, the $1.2 billion approximately is associated with the subrogation claims payment. What I would say about your question and what's known and what's unknown, we took all of that into consideration in order to reach the best estimate. I don't think Pedro's comments earlier about the process we went through, et cetera. We're not trying to break down between all of the different types of claims payments at this point. You can understand why.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay, understood. And may I just sort of - on a related topic for my follow-up, the equity that you say you're going to talk to us on the fourth quarter, any - would you comment at all on your sort of interest in using the current ATM that you have between now then? And then - and sort of also why - what's the thought process behind sort of waiting till you need to actually pay claims? Why not just sort of put this dilution behind you? So that, for a better - for want of a better reason 2021 will be a sort of the base that won't be further diluted.
Maria Rigatti:
So, in regards to both of those questions, I think your first question about thoughts about what I'll say approaches or tactics or tools, I think we have a lot of flexibility around the tools and all options I think are available to us, running the gamut, to ways we've done it before, ATM, et cetera. So I think we have a lot of options when it comes to the tools. And we'll work that out as we progress closer to the point in time in which we will be issuing the equity. And I think your second question around kind of why wait, I think we've described before that, the way these processes work, we have changed our best estimate. But that doesn't mean that cash is going out the door right now. In fact, the subrogation settlement that we announced last month, really - most of that was covered by insurance. So we're really going to follow that pattern of where - when cash is actually required. And that will play into our decision about the timing of the equity issuance.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay, fair enough. Thank you.
Pedro Pizarro:
Let me just put a fine - let me put a fine point in it, Jonathan, because perhaps reading too much between the lines of your question, there could be an implication there that perhaps events might be happening within a certain timeframe. And the reality is we just don't know what the timeframe will be for resolution of the remaining claims. I think as we've said all along, often these claims get resolved through settlement, but they need not resolve through settlement. If it goes through settlement, some have happened more quickly, like you saw the public entities settlement and the subrogation claims. But there's no guarantee that remaining claims outstanding will be settled on a similar sort of timeframe. And it could take much longer for those to be resolved. And if we ultimately ended up going all the way through litigation that we would expect would be a multiyear process. So I think it was hearing into your question, the idea, well, if you need it by X time, why not go ahead and do it, issue the equity a little bit earlier. But we don't know whether that will be a little bit or a lot earlier, because we don't really know the timeframe, Jonathan.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay, fair enough. That makes sense. Thanks very much for all the help.
Pedro Pizarro:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Bank of America. You may go ahead.
Pedro Pizarro:
Hi, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey, good afternoon, team. Thank you very much for the time. So if I can pivot to the Silverado Fire, if you don't mind, I appreciate the remarks at the outset here. But can you help frame as best you understand the liability statutes pertaining to third parties, such as those potentially involved with the telecom lines in the case? And also further, I appreciate all this is preliminary, but how should we want to think about your direct exposure, should the fact pattern that you guys just alluded to about a third-party causing the fire be affirmed and, most critically, that inverse condemnation would not apply to the utility, seeing that at least is best I physically understand what you're describing that this wire basically flew up from below and actually touched your - or presumably sparked your own wires there. Sorry for longwinded question. But I just want to be very clear, to make sure we understand the statute here.
Pedro Pizarro:
Sure. And I'm going to give you a sadly unsatisfying answer, because this fire is still raging. We know very little at this point. And so, even what - I won't say statute, what legal treatment would apply, ultimately, is still unclear. I know and you're probably focusing, for example, on could inverse condemnation apply, for example. And even with that, whether it applies will depend upon the facts of a particular case, ultimately will be determined by a court. So we've been speculating if we were tried to opine on whether something like inverse would apply here. Likewise, in terms of liability, potentially by other parties, I think, you're understanding the picture as well as we do right now, right. We shared, we're aware of this possibility of the lashing potentially having gone up and flown up into the power line. So we're above that on that particular segment. And so that could imply then some potential liability by that third-party telecommunications carrier. The utility could show that there were clauses like that, then the utility would be able to pursue a contribution from other responsible parties. And so that certainly is a possibility here. But it's just way too early to draw any conclusions at all, Julien. So I probably have to leave it at that.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
All right. Fair enough. I'll ask you a little bit of an easier one here, if you don't mind?
Pedro Pizarro:
Sure.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Where do you stand on the ability to procure insurance, as you look forward here? And I'm asking this in light of continued elevated wildfire activity in the state, even if it's admittedly not been directly tied to utility matters, but rather broader environmental factors here?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yeah, I'll start this, and Maria will probably have even better detail that I think it sort of by saying you saw that we procured insurance successfully for this calendar year. It is a tighter market than it's been in the past, the disclosures you've seen of premiums and amounts we've sought recovery have indicated that the pricing for that product is a lot higher than it was 3 or 4 years ago, I wouldn't want to speculate on what the market will look like when we're back out in the market. I think we would expect that there would be product available, but that's discovery you go through every time that you go to the insurance cycle. Maria, what would you add there?
Maria Rigatti:
Sure. So Julien, I think, it was a tough market, it's been a tough market for a couple of years, we have had the ability to get the amount of capacity that we wanted, albeit at a higher and higher price. So that is, of course, an issue for our customers. You may be aware that in our 2021 GRC, we've actually started to try and explore other alternatives that would have helped to lower the cost, so funded self-insurance and some things like that, balancing accounts, so that if the market changes to the good or the bad in terms of pricing that we're not caught short, nor would our customers bear an undue burden, if it actually turns out to be better than we were forecasting. So I think it's just something that we continue to monitor and we continue to work hard to get it into our program at the most affordable price for our customers.
Pedro Pizarro:
Maybe one more thing I would add, Julien, that might be helpful is - and again, this is a little bit of speculation here. But at the same time, I think it's important to reflect on the fire season that we've seen so far, which has been once again historic. We thought 2017 and 2018 are historic, but in terms of acreage burn, we've seen over 4 million acres burned across the state with over half of that having been due to lightning strikes. The point I'm making here is one that I think I made already in my prepared remarks. The fire suppression effort has been really strong. And, I'm going to speculate a little bit here, but it can't prove the negative here. But I would hazard a pretty good guess, that if we have had this fire season 3 years ago, before the state has significantly increased its firefighting resources and capabilities. We might be seeing a much different level of damage across the state, regardless of the cost of the fire. We might have seen much more damage for the lightning induced fires. And if there were utility caused fires, we might see more damage stemming from those as well. So I would hope that as the insurance carriers look at their risk profile for California, they - I'm sure will be taken into account some of the climate change related weather conditions, winds, et cetera, that have contributed to the large fires this year. But I would also hope that they would be looking at the flip side, the fire suppression effort that helps bring the risk envelope down for everyone. And at the same time, I would hope they would be looking at the efforts of all the utilities, certainly our utility in executing the wildfire mitigation plan, the risk isn't zero, the risk will never be zero. But I think the risk is very different today than it was 3 years ago. As we - and we will continue to change, as we continue to harden the system, as we continue to use PSPS responsibly and the like.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. Thank you, guys. I'll follow up on offline here.
Pedro Pizarro:
You bet. Hey, thanks, Julien.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs. You may go ahead, sir.
Michael Lapides:
Hey, guys, thank you for taking my question. I want to - I have 2 things. One is just a payment level question for the 2017 and 2018 wildfires. If I just do back of the envelope, and I'm sure the queue has more, and I'll hop in offline. But the $6.2 billion accrual, you paid out about $1.6 billion. You have somewhere between a $1.5 billion and $2 billion of insurance left and you're getting around to $225 million on FERC recovery. So that's - it's kind of rough - the cash out of pocket is somewhere in the $2.5 billion to $3 billion range from the 2017 and 2018 wildfires. Am I kind of in the ballpark, Maria? And that's for forward tax benefit.
Maria Rigatti:
Yeah, that's about right. And now I have to go to the math a little bit, went through it pretty quickly. But we had about $6.2 billion, or probably, I would say, $2.5 billion is a little low to me, if I go through the numbers. If you're going all the ways from the beginning, you're not - if you take all of the charges including the ones that have already been paid for the evidence of the settlements back here.
Michael Lapides:
I'm just trying to think about cash going out from today onwards, so the $6.2 billion, but you've already paid $1.6 billion, roughly $1.6 billion. And you have some insurance skill to collect, so I don't remember what that number is, the math is $2 billion, but I think you've already collected some.
Maria Rigatti:
If you're are all thinking about the - if you're thinking about to go forward, that's probably about - right about $3 billion.
Michael Lapides:
Okay. Thank you.
Maria Rigatti:
In the best estimate - embedded in the best estimate.
Michael Lapides:
Understood. Pedro, I have a question just about the tone in California towards utilities, which is one of the major publications in Northern California today put out what scene or maybe it was last night put out what seemed like a very harsh piece on one of your peers. And it seems to have been relatively quiet coming out of Sacramento and other public officials about kind of the low utilities play in wildfires and wildfire mitigation, and maybe that's because we're going to our first season. But can you just talk about how you manage the court of public opinion from here and the sentiment, and how that impacts and kind of flows through policymakers and the coordination with policymakers?
Pedro Pizarro:
That's a good question. And I'll try not to take up the whole rest of the earnings call on. I guess, we probably could spend a whole afternoon on it. By the way, in your prior question, I'm glad you asked that, I think that your question was probably in the same zone as Jonathan's in looking for the sizing of the numbers. So hopefully, that helps everybody. I think in terms of tone and look, I won't comment on the publication you just mentioned or other utilities out there. But I think - I'll make 2 comments. I'll make a general comment and then a more specific comment about Edison. The general comment is that particularly with the 2020 wildfire season, so far. The fact that over half of the acres burned stem from lightning induced fires. The issues that everybody in the population has seen around firefighting, and frankly the great efforts by firefighters, et cetera. I think at some level, there's a deeper understanding that this is not just about the source of the fire, but it's about this convergence of factors, including climate change, including weather conditions, including fuel on the ground, including all of this, right, including where homes have built, that adds up to this risk that the state bears and trying to do something about. So that I think brings in maybe a little different tone overall. I'll make a second comment about our utility. One of the things we've tried to do throughout all this is - name a few things we've done. We try to be really transparent, Michael. And so, as we have seen issues in the system, as we've gone through the 2017 and 2018, wildfire experience, you saw us be very transparent when we saw that there might have been issues related to our equipment that might have contributed to fires, because of all, I want to make sure that the public can have confidence and trust in the Edison company, being forthright, and not only working hard to improve things and reduce wildfire risk for our communities, but also in being transparent about when things might happen. And the reality is we operate under a prudency standard, not a perfection standard because we operate a system with a million and a half poles across 50,000 square miles with 27% of those 50,000 square miles being high fire risk territory. The other thing we've tried to do is - 2 more things we do. The second thing has been to work really hard at continuing to learn developer wildfire mitigation plans, improve on them. Actually, even before there was the concept of the WMP, frankly, even before we'd seen the Thomas fire in 2017. We started to work on the Grid Safety and Resiliency Program, because we saw with the combination of the one country fires in the fall of 2017, and the instability event in the regulatory framework at the CPUC San Diego Gas & Electric decision. We saw that the risk profile was very different, both physically and in regulatory space. And that began our first iteration of a radical rethinking of how we thought about wildfire risk on our system that led to the GSRP filing, and we haven't stopped since then. And we try to communicate with our communities, everything that we're doing around it. The third and final thing I'll mention is, even as we focus most of our attention on this near-term issue and these risks. We've also kept the eye on the long-term ball here. And that's why you've seen us continue to think hard about things like Pathway 2045, and what California needs to do to address climate change, both because we're seeing the climate change impacts manifests themselves in wildfire. So it's important to take care of the wildfire risk. But we also have to help the state to take care of the crew long-term risk, which is doing something about climate change, but also because, taking care of - addressing greenhouse gas reduction turns out that you really need a strong utility to be a major partner with the state to have a strong grid to help access clean energy and electrify the economy. And that I think that that need for a strong utility for the long run, to help the state achieve its climate goals, is part of the fabric here, right, as part of the reason to ensure that the utility can have a compact to keep it healthy. It's part of the reason that you saw state government support AB 1054. And it's part of the reason that you saw unanimous approval for AB 913 this year. So a little long winded here, but we really think a lot about this in terms of what we do in the near-term? But how do we think about the long-term? And how do we help demonstrate to the state and to our public that we want to be a partner and we need to be a strong partner for the long haul here in order to make California the great state that we all enjoy living in.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Thank you, Pedro. Much appreciate it.
Pedro Pizarro:
You bet. Thanks, Michael.
Maria Rigatti:
Hey, Michael, just one thing, because I was using my scratchpad while Pedro was going through it, I think…
Michael Lapides:
I give Maria time to work with some numbers.
Maria Rigatti:
Yeah, I think the number you're looking for is more like $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion. And we can go over how I did my math offline, if you want.
Michael Lapides:
That sounds great. Happy look forward to following up, Maria. Thank you.
Pedro Pizarro:
Thanks, Michael.
Operator:
And the next question comes from Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research. You may go ahead, sir.
Pedro Pizarro:
Hi, Steve.
Steve Fleishman:
Hey, good afternoon. So just one technical question on the lashing wire, and I guess, the telecom wires and electric. Is the telecom company responsible for managing and servicing their own wires near your poles? Or do you have to do that at all?
Pedro Pizarro:
In general, they are responsible for managing their equipment. It gets even more complicated here, because you can have multiple telco companies using the assets under Joint Pole Agreements. In some cases, they might have a space on the pole designated for them, but they can then being that or dedicated to other telco providers through transaction. So it really their responsibility, it is the responsibility to maintain the physical assets. That said, when we go on and inspect our facilities, we look for any hazards that could interfere with the electrical system. And so while we don't do detail inspection of their telco assets, if we see something and we certainly keep an eye out for any hazards that the telco assets might pose to the electric system, and report those to the telco companies.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. And then just one other question on the GRC. The - how - sounds like you feel pretty good on the timing of the Track 1 by early next year. Do you think there's any chance of settling the GRC Track 1 like you have Track 2 or should we assume that's going to go through the full litigated process?
Maria Rigatti:
Yeah, we're pretty far along in the process now. I mean, we - all we have left is really the ALJ to issue a proposed decision, and you could have oral arguments after that. So I won't say you can never do something like that. But we are pretty far along in the process in terms of Track 1. Track 2 on the other hand, obviously we were much earlier in the process and hadn't yet gone through a lot of the different piece parts of the proceeding when we reach the settlement in principal.
Steve Fleishman:
And you'll wait for that to give 2021 guidance, the outcome of the GRC like you've done in the past?
Maria Rigatti:
Yeah, the Track 1. Yeah.
Steve Fleishman:
Yeah. Okay. Thank you.
Pedro Pizarro:
Steve, Steve, Steve, we always remain open if parties want to discuss things. But I think Maria got it right, this one is pretty far down the path. Thanks a lot.
Steve Fleishman:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan. You may go ahead.
Jeremy Tonet:
Hi, good afternoon.
Pedro Pizarro:
Hi, there.
Jeremy Tonet:
Switching gears here to the Blue Ridge fire. Just wondering if you're able to share with us if any EIX assets reside within the vicinity of the Blue Ridge ignition point or if that is not the case?
Pedro Pizarro:
I think - Jeremy, thanks for the question. I think the short answer I'll give you is that we have not filed an ESIR for Blue Ridge. And at this point, we don't see any basis for needing to file an ESIR.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. That's very helpful. Thank you.
Pedro Pizarro:
Yeah. You bet.
Jeremy Tonet:
When thinking about potential changes to California system planning, how should we think about incremental capital opportunities for EIX over the next few years, just kind of a broader question there?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yeah. No, that's a great question. I'll try and keep it brief. When we think about that, I think certainly the near-term thesis I talked about, right. So the procurement needs that we foresee across the state for the 2024 to 2026 timeframe, I would suspect that much of that will continue to be served by competitive generators in the state. The state has generally had a preference for that. There's always an opportunity for utility involvement. We have shared with investors before that we don't see SCE investing capital into traditional generation. It's just not the core business at this point. We like the generation that we do have in rate base. But we don't see dedicating new capital to new generation since we have a very vibrant third-party market here. And we have plenty of opportunities to invest capital in the wire system. A little different with storage, because storage could well be part of that, not only the midterm procurement. But we certainly see storage being a big part of the story in California as we go up to 2030 and 2045. And so, just to remind you, our Pathway 2045 analysis suggests that California-wide you'll see a need for 80 gigawatts of new renewables and 30 gigawatts of new storage at the bulk power level statewide. And while I would expect a lot of storage will also be done by third-parties, we have seen certainly an interest in statutes in preserving the options for some utility on storage. You've seen in our current rate case, we had filed in their provisions for not a large amount of capital, but some capital that was set aside. Maria, I want to say it was around $60 million, if I remember correctly, but check me on that $60 million, all right, for potential utility on storage. And when we see storage being a more likely target for utility ownership would be - where it can play a more integral role in grid operations; as an example, the 20 megawatts of batteries that we deploy at our Mira Loma Substation a few years ago. I'd say, bigger picture though, as we think about those near and midterm needs. And in the longer-term energy transition, the big capital investment opportunity in need here is making sure we have a robust grid to be able to interconnect clean energy resources with the increase in users across the economy as the economy electrifies. And as we see load, which was been generally stagnant for the last decade, increased by 60%, by the time we get up to 2045. So we see a significant need for investment in the wire system. And that along with potential upside opportunities in areas like the Charge Ready 2 program, there might be other opportunities like that as the environment evolves. So hope that covers it, Jeremy.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. Got it. Really appreciate that. And if I could slip one more in, just what's your current outlook for customer rates over the planning period, with kind of incremental recoveries authorized as expected?
Maria Rigatti:
If you look at our current rate case, so the GRC, that's especially the [Chapter 1] [ph], is everything were approved, which obviously that never happens. But the average monthly residential bill would go up to about $13 on average. Our care customers would go up to about - I think it's about $8 a month.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. Thank you very much for that.
Pedro Pizarro:
Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Ryan Levine with Citi. You may go ahead, sir.
Ryan Levine:
Good afternoon.
Pedro Pizarro:
Hey, Ryan.
Ryan Levine:
In light of the blackouts in California over the last few months, can you comment around, specifically blackout related potential investment opportunities in transmission and storage that may address some of the problems of the last few months and reduce the risk for future seasons?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yeah. Thanks for the question, Ryan. And I think a lot of the answer in broad strokes is what I just shared with Jeremy. I don't think that we have a more precise beat right now on here's this specific piece of equipment that might help with that. Remember that the rotating outages were not driven by the transmission or distribution system per se. They were driven by insufficiency in supply. And so a lot of the focus therefore is on the kind of near-term procurement that SCE advocated for and the CPUC approved last year. So recall that they approve something like 3,000 megawatts of procurement for the 2021 to 2023 timeframe. Of that, I think SCE has done - that's statewide number. And I think SCE has done something like 2,700 megawatts of procurement for that timeframe, largely with keeping some existing generators, going for a few more years, that's been in tandem with the State Water Resources Board, having extended the timelines for retirements due to once the cooling restrictions. So I think that's a lot of the very near-term actions. In the midterm, that's what I was talking about earlier, we see that statewide need for around 5,400 megawatts of resources beyond current contracts statewide. And so, some of that may be met by once again existing plants, being able to extend their lifetime, some of that may be driven by new resources, some of that could be combinations of storage additions that might provide greater effective capacity. So that I think could be something that - some portion of which might end up being done through utility rate base. And I think certainly it'd be a large portion of that that is done through competitive processes. On the transmission side, I don't know that I can point to any specific transmission deficiencies that would have contributed to the rotating outages. But as we think about the system, adding new resources that, of course, will then need to - lead to needs for transmission interconnection if those resources are landing in places that already have wire connections. And so, again, I don't think I have anything specific to share in terms of the near term. I will tell you in terms of the longer term view, heading out to 2045, in our Pathway 2045 white paper, when we try to put dollar figure around the resource needs, that 80 gigawatts of renewables and 30 gigawatts of storage, those new clean energy resources added up in our estimates, a rough estimate, go around $175 billion need for new investments statewide. Again, much of that may be done by third parties, and the related transmission bulk power system investments, through 2045 statewide will be something like $70 billion. So there is significant investment need ahead. And I think some portion of that will need to be served by utilities.
Ryan Levine:
Thank you.
Pedro Pizarro:
Thanks, Ryan.
Operator:
Paul Fremont from Mizuho. You may go ahead, sir.
Pedro Pizarro:
Hey, Paul.
Paul Fremont.:
Hi. I guess my first question is can you tell us a little bit more about the Bobcat Fire. And I guess, there were some news reports with respect to the Bobcat Fire that there may have been vegetation or tree branches that came into contact with the transmission lines. Are you able to sort of give us any update there?
Pedro Pizarro:
So I don't think there are any major new updates beyond what we have reported already. But just to recap that, we have reported that, this fire starting September 6, the reported start time of the fire was 12:21. We did have a relay on our system, on a 12 KV circuit, 5 minutes before that at 12:16. But one of the high-definition cameras that we have out there saw or captured the initial stages of the fire and saw smoke as early as 12:10 PM. So, 6 minutes before we saw any sort of activity in our circuit. And what was that, 11 minutes before the reported start of the fire. The US Forest Service is doing investigation. And they removed a 23-foot section of overhead conductor from the area of interest. And we understand that they also removed and retained some tree branches. So this suggested they may be investigating if vegetation was involved in ignition of the fire. We don't know if the US Forest Service is also looking at any other possible causes of the - for the fire or if this equipment is their sole focus. SCE is doing its own review. It's still really early here. We will certainly be looking at any number of potential causes. The bottom line, Paul, is it's way too early. And we have reached no conclusions in either direction in terms of causation at this point.
Paul Fremont.:
And then, my other question is, with respect to the Track 2 settlement, you were making a statement that you don't expect a negative earnings impact. Can you elaborate on that, is that relative to what?
Maria Rigatti:
So I guess I will caveat everything by saying that since the settlement go in to a lot of detail, only meant more people to think that there was anything in the settlement that would be untoward. We don't see any impact on earnings or anything like that. We'd be deferred some of the costs as being probable of recovery. Just wanted to clarify that, this is consistent with what we've previously thought.
Paul Fremont.:
Okay, so that's not in any way, any type of the signal on future EPS?
Maria Rigatti:
No. It was more to clarify that - well, I mean, I guess, it is a signal things are not going to have negative effect on earnings. But it was more to point to the fact that we had previously talked about, how we were deferring costs. And this settlement covers a number of those costs that we've been deferring.
Paul Fremont.:
Okay, thank you very much.
Pedro Pizarro:
Thanks, Paul.
Operator:
That was the last question. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Sam Ramraj.
Sam Ramraj:
Thank you for joining us today. And please call if you have any follow-up questions. That concludes our conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Thank you. This concludes today's conference. You may go ahead and disconnect at this time.
Operator:
Good afternoon and welcome to the Edison International Second Quarter 2020 Financial Teleconference. My name is Ted, and I will be your operator today. [Operator Instructions] Today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Sam Ramraj, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Ramraj, you may begin your conference.
Sam Ramraj:
Thank you, Ted, and welcome, everyone. Our speakers today are President and Chief Executive Officer, Pedro Pizarro; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Maria Rigatti. Also on the call are other members of the management team. I would like to mention that we are doing this call with our executives in different locations. So, please bear with us if we experience any technical difficulties. Materials supporting today's call are available at www.edisoninvestor.com. These include our Form 10-K, prepared remarks from Pedro and Maria, and the teleconference presentation. Tomorrow, we will distribute our regular business update presentation. During this call, we’ll make forward-looking statements about the outlook for Edison International and its subsidiaries. Actual results could differ materially from current expectations. Important factors that could cause different results are set forth in our SEC filings. Please read these carefully. The presentation includes certain outlook assumptions, as well as reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure. During the question-and-answer session, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. I will now turn the call over to Pedro.
Pedro Pizarro:
Well, thank you Sam, and let me start by hoping that all of you listening today and your loved ones are staying safe and healthy as our world continues to work its way through COVID-19. Today, Edison International reported core earnings per share of $1 for the second quarter 2020, down $0.58 compared to the same period last year. The decline in year-over-year EPS was primarily due to higher O&M expenses, equity share dilution, and the true-up for the final 2018 GRC decision we recorded in the second quarter of last year. Consistent with recent quarters, results for this period were impacted by the timing of O&M spend and deferrals of certain wildfire-related expenses. However, the year-over-year EPS impact of wildfire-related expenses should improve in the second half, and we remain confident in our outlook for the full year. Therefore, we are narrowing our 2020 EPS guidance range to $4.37 to $4.62 by raising our low end by $0.05. Maria will discuss our financial performance in more detail in her report. On the legislative front, we are pleased that the Governor and Legislature prioritized wildfire funding in the recently adopted budget, despite its projected $54 billion deficit due to the pandemic. The budget provides over $200 million in one-time and ongoing funding for community resiliency preparedness, additional firefighting personnel and equipment, and enhancement of the State’s emergency preparedness, response and coordination with State agencies, local governments and utilities. We are also encouraged by the State’s enhanced wildfire mitigation capabilities as we prepare for this year’s wildfire season. For instance, CAL FIRE reported that it completed all of the planned 35 emergency fuels management projects in May, making 90,000 acres safer ahead of wildfire season and protecting 200 vulnerable communities. Some of these projects were located in, or adjacent to, SCE service territory. CAL FIRE has also made substantial investments to support its firefighting capabilities, including the addition of C-130 airplanes and new helicopters with better night firefighting capabilities. Turning to operations during this COVID-19 pandemic, SCE remains steadfast in focusing on practices aimed at the safety and health of employees and customers. Two thirds of our 13,000 employees continue to telework, and we recently moved our earliest re-entry date for them from after Labor Day to the beginning of next year. Importantly, SCE also has a sharp focus on maintaining critical operations for customers’ benefit, including those laid out in SCE’s 2020 through 2022 Wildfire Mitigation Plan. This plan calls for SCE to continue to harden infrastructure, bolster situational awareness capabilities and improve operational practices, while implementing enhanced data analytics and technology. Since the beginning of the year, SCE has completed more than 330 miles of covered conductor, installed nearly 400 additional weather stations and completed over 135,000 ground-based inspections of our infrastructure in high fire risk areas. SCE is also making good progress in acquiring more high definition imagery, through a combination of helicopters and drones, to facilitate additional assessments that are not possible from the ground. The CPUC approved the 2020-2022 Wildfire Mitigation Plan on June 11th, paving the way for the renewal of SCE’s annual Safety Certification as the prerequisite for access to the Wildfire Fund. Looking ahead, we anticipate another active fire season, mainly driven by lower than expected precipitation and very dry conditions across California. However, SCE is entering the more active fire period better prepared than ever. In addition to advancing wildfire mitigation measures, the company has made improvements to Public Safety Power Shutoff, or PSPS, protocols since last year. While the use of PSPS is largely dependent on temperature, wind and fuel conditions, with the improvements that SCE has made since last year, we would expect to see a 30% reduction in the number of customers affected by PSPS events under the same conditions as last year. Our preparedness includes pre-established switching playbooks for each of our approximately 1,100 circuits that traverse high fire risk areas, enabling a more surgical approach to isolate the smallest portion of the circuit possible for a given weather condition. It also includes many facets of our customer care program such as providing generator rebates for customers in our high fire risk area and battery backup systems for qualified critical care customers. We continue to focus on minimizing customer impacts, but PSPS will remain a tool to mitigate the risk of a catastrophic wildfire. Among key wildfire-related proceedings at the CPUC, SCE submitted its 2020 safety certification request on June 19th, outlining how the company meets safety culture and conduct requirements, including implementing our approved Wildfire Mitigation Plan and linking executive compensation to safety. The CPUC has 90 days to act on SCE’s request; until then, the initial safety certification we received last July will remain in effect. On the legal front, I would like to give you an update on the 2017 and 2018 wildfire and mudslide events. SCE announced an agreement last November to settle claims with 23 public entities. Since that time, the utility has continued to explore settlement opportunities with numerous individual plaintiffs. During the quarter, SCE reached confidential settlement agreements with some of these plaintiffs, and they represent the first individual claims that the company has settled in the 2017 and 2018 wildfire and mudslide cases. There are thousands of similar individual claims against SCE, and the utility is committed to exploring settlements with all reasonable parties who wish to do so. The Court has set January 12, 2021 as the start of the Thomas Fire bellwether trial, but this may be further impacted by COVID-19. The court vacated the July 2020 bellwether trial date for the Woolsey Fire and has yet to set a new date. I would now like to briefly discuss how sustainability is central to our vision for leading the transformation of the electric power industry. Our vision aligns with California’s COVID-19 recovery efforts, as the State is working to help Californians recover as fast as safely possible from the COVID-19-induced recession and to shape an equitable, green and prosperous future. Our recently published 2019 sustainability report highlights Edison International’s progress towards meeting our long-term goals. They include delivering 100% carbon-free power to SCE customers by 2045, expanding infrastructure in SCE’s service area to support increased vehicle electrification and electrifying SCE’s own fleet, including 100% of light duty vehicles by 2030. I would note that at the end of 2019, 51% of the electricity that SCE delivered came from carbon free resources. We also remain focused on advancing our clean energy and electrification strategy. In May, SCE announced 770 megawatts of energy storage procurement, one of the largest in the nation which will help enhance electric system local reliability needs. Also, last month, SCE, in partnership with other utilities, published the West Coast Clean Transit Corridor Initiative study, this looks at infrastructure needs to serve medium and heavy-duty electric trucks. Additionally, we were pleased that the California Air Resources Board furthered the state’s commitment to electrification by adopting the nation’s first zero-emission, electric truck rule. Maria will comment on the initial proposed decision issued just yesterday in SCE’s Charge Ready 2 proceeding. Let me conclude by saying that California’s commitment to the 2030 and 2045 climate change goals can play a critical role in a just and equitable economic recovery. Investments in clean energy and electrification can address climate change and also lower greenhouse gases affordably for all California communities. At Edison International, we are committed to enabling the State’s efforts to achieve its objective of a clean energy economy. With that, let me turn it over to Maria to provide her financial report.
Maria Rigatti:
Thank you, Pedro. Edison International reported core earnings of $1 per share for the second quarter 2020, a decrease of $0.58 per share from the same period last year. This decline was primarily due to higher O&M expenses, equity share dilution, and the true-up for the final 2018 GRC decision we recorded in the second quarter of last year. As Pedro had mentioned, we expect the year-over-year EPS impact of wildfire-related expenses to improve in the second half and we are narrowing our full year 2020 EPS guidance by raising the low end of the range. On page 2, you can see SCE’s key EPS drivers on the right-hand side. I would like to highlight four items that negatively impacted the variance. First, EPS declined by $0.20 due to the 2018 true-up recorded in the second quarter of 2019 upon receipt of the final GRC decision. Second, O&M had a negative variance of $0.24, including from increased expenses that are offset by revenue due to balancing account treatment, as well as the timing of deferrals related to both, wildfire mitigation expenses and COVID-19 related costs. The variance related to wildfire mitigation expenses is due to the timing of regulatory deferrals for vegetation management and inspection and preventative maintenance costs. For the quarter, the negative variance from wildfire mitigation expenses was $0.06 per share. During the quarter, certain wildfire-related expenses reached the total amount authorized in the GRC and we began to defer incremental costs through approved memorandum accounts. We will begin to defer other categories of costs in the third quarter when these exceed the GRC authorized levels. Therefore, wildfire-related expenses will be less of a driver of year-over-year variances in the second half. O&M expenses were also negatively impacted by the timing of customer uncollectibles, labor and other expenses resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and SCE's response to it. As we have noted previously, there are tracking accounts for COVID-related expenses. Since some of these expenses are similar to costs authorized in the GRC, for example uncollectibles, we must reach full-year GRC authorized levels before we begin to defer them. The EPS impact in the quarter for these items, until they reached the authorized levels, was $0.06. However, for the full year, we do not expect an earnings impact due to COVID-related expenses. As for deferrals, through June 30th, we have recorded $49 million in two COVID-related memo accounts. Third, depreciation and amortization negatively impacted EPS by $0.13. This was primarily due to changes in Q1 2019 depreciation rates that were recorded in the second quarter last year following the GRC decision as well as higher plant. Finally, EPS in the quarter was lower by $0.17 because of dilution from the increase in shares outstanding. On page 3, you will find SCE’s capital expenditure and rate base forecast. We have a robust capital program of $19.4 billion to $21.2 billion, which includes SCE’s revised capital request reflected in the 2021 GRC rebuttal. Based on the capital expenditure levels requested in the 2021 GRC, total weighted-average CPUC and FERC-jurisdictional rate base will increase to $41 billion by 2023. This request level represents a compound annual growth rate of 7.5% over two rate case periods. Applying a 10% reduction to the total capital forecast, to reflect our experience of previously authorized amounts and other operational considerations, results in a compound annual rate base growth of 6.6%. As we have done in the past, projects and programs that have not yet been approved by the CPUC, such as Charge Ready 2, are not included in the rate base forecast. Yesterday evening, we received a proposed decision in the Charge Ready 2 proceeding. The PD would authorize a total program budget of $442 million, including a capital budget of $314 million. It is expected to be voted on at the Commission’s August 27 business meeting. Please turn to page 4 for an update on the 2021 GRC. During the quarter, SCE filed its rebuttal testimony focusing on a number of the intervenors’ recommendations, including their positions on reductions to the covered conductor program and depreciation. While the magnitude of the revenue increase is higher than prior GRCs, we continue to underscore that our request is necessary to make the longer term investments required to deliver safe, reliable, affordable, and increasingly clean electricity for more than 15 million Californians. As for next steps in the GRC, evidentiary hearings were completed on July 22nd and briefs and oral arguments are scheduled for the fall. We are encouraged that the CPUC has kept this proceeding on schedule even while working remotely during the COVID-19 pandemic. The CPUC is expected to issue a final decision for Track 1 in Q1 2021. I would now like to update you on other key financial topics. Please turn to page 5. First, we completed our 2020 EIX financing plan in May with the direct placement of $800 million of equity with several existing long-term investors. We have minimal equity needs to fund our ongoing capital expenditures program beyond 2020. As noted previously, this is also predicated on timely cost recovery of the requested memorandum accounts and the current level of liabilities on our balance sheet for the 2017 and 2018 wildfire and mudslide events. Turning to wildfire insurance coverage, we have secured $1 billion of gross insurance coverage from July 2020 to June 2021, which is $870 million net of self and co-insurance. You will recall that we had net coverage of about $1 billion for the previous policy year. The insurance market continues to be tight and based on the cost of insurance premiums, the $1 billion gross coverage optimizes risk mitigation and cost to customers. We believe that this insurance coverage meets the requirements of AB 1054. Based on policies currently in effect, the wildfire insurance expense in 2020 is approximately $450 million. Moving to our 2019 FERC Formula Rate case, SCE filed a settlement on its formula rates in June. If approved by FERC, this settlement will provide SCE with an all-in ROE of 10.3% and an equity layer that is the higher of actual and 47.5%. SCE can file a new rate case beginning in January 2022. Lastly, earlier this month, we filed an application with the CPUC to allow SCE to securitize $337 million of wildfire-related capital expenditures. AB 1054 allows us to securitize wildfire-related costs including $1.6 billion of CPUC-approved wildfire mitigation capital spending, which can’t be included in the equity portion of SCE’s rate base. This application requests authority to securitize a portion of the recently approved Grid Safety and Resiliency Program spending. The bonds will be repaid from a dedicated rate component. Pages 6 and 7 show our 2020 guidance and key assumptions for modeling purposes. I’ll start by highlighting that we are narrowing the EPS guidance range to $4.37 to $4.62 per share by raising the low end of the range. This also increases the midpoint of the EPS range to $4.50. There are several variables driving this positive revision. Let’s begin with SCE’s rate base earnings. We now expect the rate base EPS outlook to be $0.03 higher as a result of our 2019 FERC Formula Rate case settlement and the resolution of a tax-related regulatory proceeding. Building on this, we are also now forecasting a net contribution of $0.27 from SCE operating and financial variances. This is $0.07 higher than our previous estimate. This increase is influenced by the timing of SCE’s financing activities as well as a number of other operational items. As you look at the next three bars on the chart, you will note that some of the EPS increases I just described are offset by higher costs at EIX Parent and Other, primarily from increased interest expense, and dilution from outstanding share count. We now forecast the combined EPS drag from these two items to be $0.07 higher than our previous estimate and this is primarily related to the completion of the EIX financing plan earlier in the year than originally anticipated. Taking all of these variables into consideration, the net impact of these changes, combined with the outlook for our business with another quarter behind us in this COVID-19 environment, gives us confidence in our narrowed 2020 EPS guidance range of $4.37 to $4.62 per share. That concludes my remarks.
Sam Ramraj:
Ted, please open the call for questions. As a reminder, we request you to limit yourself to one question and one follow-up, so everyone in line has the opportunity to ask questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] First question is from Jonathan Arnold with Vertical Research. Your line is now open.
Jonathan Arnold:
Pedro, could I just ask -- obviously, you've mentioned that you've reached some initial settlements with I think you certainly have described in the sort of some of the plaintiffs in 2017 and '18 fires. And obviously, there are thousands of others. But, should we read the fact that you didn't change your accrual, despite reaching some of these settlements as a sign that you feel still good about your estimate, or is it just that you don't have enough experience in settling additional claims to really have an update at this point?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes. Hey, Jonathan, that's a really good question. I think, just the simple answer is that we did a handful of settlements, a few dozen settlements here compared to the thousands of plaintiffs. So, that is simply just not enough evidence to have any sort of material impact in our assessment for the low end of estimable range. So, we did look at the range again, and at the low end, as we mentioned before, we reassess that we go into every quarter. But just based on the very small number of cases that we settled, that's just not sufficient to provide any sort of material input that would lead to a change.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. Thank you. And then, if I could just follow up on one similar topic. I see, you booked a charge related to 2017 and 2018, a small one in the quarter that's below the core line and just -- the $9 million. What was that and what sort of caused that to get booked this quarter?
Maria Rigatti:
Sure. So, Jonathan, you can imagine, as we move through this process, we're accumulating legal and expert costs. Because those are legal and expert costs that are associated with the non-core charge, we're booking those as non-core as well. Prior to this quarter, the number was really not significant.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. So, that's sort of a sign of your -- maybe your settlement activities sort of ramping up. Is that fair?
Pedro Pizarro:
I would just say, it’s a sign of our continuing litigation activities, Jonathan.
Jonathan Arnold:
All right. I'll let it go. Thank you very much.
Pedro Pizarro:
Hey, thanks. You take care.
Operator:
Our next question is from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Bank of America. Your line is now open.
Pedro Pizarro:
Hello, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey. Good afternoon Thanks guys for the time. Perhaps just a follow-up on Jonathan's question, this is my follow-up, if I will. Can you clarify a little bit on how you think about the various groups of potential parties that you'd be seeking to settle with? And just as you set expectations, and I know it's difficult to talk about it, obviously the worldly timeline is a little shifted out. Can you talk about potential expectations on what kinds of parties you might expect to settle with? And then, obviously, I think you said, this is just the handful basically of individuals here. Just, how do you think about the timeline and cadence given the bellwether trial for one is established still in January versus vacated for the other one?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes. And let me start Julien by saying that, I do think of the timelines as in some sense being almost two separate timelines, although obviously they're related. There's a timeline for the normal litigation course and that's where the bellwether trial dates are relevant. And as you noted and I think that we mentioned earlier, there's a new date set for -- on the Thomas side, the Woolsey date has been postponed. We didn't know that that Thomas date could still move again just because of the COVID-19 impacts and uncertainty around that. So that's a track. A separate track is really multiple tracks of discussions with multiple classes of plaintiffs. And, the reality is that that track has a life of its own. And it really depends on parties on both sides, and whether, on the plaintiff's side, are there parties that are interested in being reasonable and achieving reasonable settlements. And so, we're open for business to parties that want to have reasonable discussions and we’re less open business for folks who may not have a reasonable point of view. How that relates to the trial timeline? Frankly, it's hard to say. I really can't get into the head of specific parties and whether they view a linkage to a trial date or not. In terms of the other part of your question around, how do we think about the various classes here? On one large class for the public entities, and as you recall, we settled with the vast majority of those last fall and the other two classes are the subrogation parties that are really representing insurance company interests, and the individual plaintiffs. And so, nothing that we've had to announce at this point on the several parties, again, we'll continue to be open to discussions with regional parties. And with the individual plaintiffs we saw a handful of a settlement that we entered. So again, probably the longest answer in the world is that it’s really hard to give you any sense of timeline or timing, because that really comes down to each of those parties or groups of parties.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Excellent. And a quick clarification again as my follow-up here. On your '20 guidance, I think Maria, you commented going back a quarter here in light of COVID. You didn't show a bridge, obviously now you have, and there were a number of items introducing uncertainty in light of COVID, et cetera. Just to make sure -- any specific items that are still outstanding that could introduce volatility? And I know you are raising guidance here after not showing it earlier, at least the low end is indeed a sign of confidence. I just want to make sure that we're hearing you right about some of the key pieces that you were looking for clarity last quarter.
Maria Rigatti:
Sure. Thanks, Julien. And last quarter, while we didn't provide a bridge, we did reaffirm guidance. Obviously, now we’re raising low end of the range a little bit as well. But, last quarter, what we were really saying was, the piece parts could move around and that's why we didn't provide the bridge. I think, as our team continued to move through the process, we have more clarity on what those pieces parts are. Obviously, we have the memo accounts that we set up related to COVID expenses, we have decoupling, we have all of those things in California that provide us with confidence. So, I wouldn't point to anything necessarily being different other than that with the passage of time that granularity is more apparent to us.
Operator:
Our next is from Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research. Your line is now open.
Steve Fleishman:
So, two questions are related ones. First is just on the cash flow standpoint, I know there's a lot of moves back and forth through the trackers and the like. So, just how are you feeling about staying within the targeted rating agency ranges for this year next year?
Maria Rigatti:
So, you’re right. We do have a lot of cash tied up particularly in those wildfire mitigation memo accounts. I think, the regulatory asset that we have on the books this quarter is just more than $1.1 billion. So, it's a fair amount. We have been moving through the process on various of those proceedings. GSNIP [ph] has been approved and the settlements has been approved. The WEMO [ph] we’re expecting that decision in September. That's the one about the insurance proceeds from last year. So, we're moving through that process. We do think that that's moving through timely on those requested amounts. It’s important to maintaining our cash flow. And those are some of the -- that's one of the assumptions that our 2020 financing plan was predicated on. I think that from a rating agency perspective, the COVID-related items, they understand very well the strong supports that we have in California, both the trackers that we have as well as decoupling. So, as sales vary that we will cover that as well. So, I think that is something that they're very familiar with and think highly of, frankly. On the memo accounts of wildfire mitigation, I think demonstrating that we can get to other decisions behind this will be important. And I think that really was one of the important assumptions that we made in our financing plan for this year. We'll continue to look at that for next year. And as we get that cash in the door, obviously our metrics will improve.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. And I'm going to ask a clarification...
Maria Rigatti:
It is a really important element. I agree with you.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. Thank you. Just a clarification of someone else's question. So, just -- we keep looking back to the '17 and '18 and potential settlements. One of the things that ultimately has to come up is like, did you actually do anything imprudent? Because, again, as far as I recall, I don't remember any investigation that has found that you actually did anything wrong in the '17, '18 fires. So, could you just like remind us when and how prudency would be reviewed for the '17, '18 fires?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes. Happy to take a quick stab at that. And just to remind you that there's really a whole process around obviously the litigation proceeding that this is determining that potential litigation exposure or potential settlement outcomes. There is a separate track around the Attorney General's office, which is again pretty standard course in these kinds of cases where they can take a look at whether there's any basis for liability. [Ph] If you've seen we discussed in prior calls but we seem to be past that period now for time, events Attorney General is continuing their investigation for the Woolsey Fire. In any case, we don't see any basis for any liability in any of these events. And then, the final track there would be the track at the CPUC, which although the CPUC's safety and enforcement division engages right away and looking at the facts of a fire, et cetera, the real meat and bones of the potency review would start after filing by Southern California Edison, seeking recovery of amounts related to the fires for outcomes and mitigation or settlements, right? So that has not begun yet. We have shared in prior calls as well that at this point, we still don't have full visibility to every piece of evidence out there. There's still equipment that we have yet to inspect, et cetera. So, the way this works is that once we had finalized the litigation outcome for the 2017, Thomas, Koenigstein mudslide events and separately for the 2018 Woolsey Fire event. As we end up understanding what the final liability is, whether court process or through settlement, we understand what the outstanding amount is, beyond our insurance coverage, at that point, based on our then understanding of our prudency, right, we complete that review on our site or SCE would do that review, then SCE would decide to go the CPUC to seek cost recovery from customers and that would start that proceeding. So, at this point, we can tell you pretty definitively that we don't see any basis for criminal felony liability and the investigatory criminal part of this led by the Attorney General. But, we don't have all the pieces in place to understand our degree of prudency and what the case would be for cost recovery. Just final reminder, in our accounting reserve, we have not assumed any recovery from the CPUC given the precedent, San Diego case. We have assumed recovery from FERC because they had a different precedent. But, I would expect that we will be likely to be seeking cost recovery of some amount, dependent ultimately on the degree of prudency that we concluded we had shown. So, lots of pieces to the answer because this is a complex process. Does that make sense, Steve?
Steve Fleishman:
Yes. No, that was really good review. Thank you, Pedro.
Pedro Pizarro:
Thanks. You take care.
Operator:
Next question is from Michael Lapides from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Michael Lapides:
Hey, guys. Thank you for taking my questions. I actually have a handful and Maria, they're probably more directed at you. Can you talk a little bit about the leeway, the comfort zone you have regarding Southern California Edison dividend payment potential up to the parent relative to what both, the CPUC requirement and the California corporate court requirements are?
Maria Rigatti:
Sure. So, you know that in California, there are some rules around dividend payments, which some of them are I’ll say very standard, earnings tested, et cetera. And then, also around, largely following the payment of dividend that has an ability to meet obligations as they come due. And we've been evaluating this forever before the wildfires as well, because that's been part of the course for a long time. But I think it got a little bit more attention after the 2017-2018 events. We look at a wide range of really potentially negative outcomes to ascertain the answer to that second question. And we've been in position each quarter to think about that, both at the EIX levels of common shareholders but then also in between SCE and EIX. SCE also is looking at cash flows and the like and exact timing of their financing. So, there's a little bit of just I'll say, the day-to-day cash management that comes with accounts as well, but they routinely make dividend upto the parent company. As far as CPUC goes, obviously CPUC is looking to ascertain that they are living within their own capital structure and the like. And we've always been able to do that as well and I think we’ll be able to do that.
Michael Lapides:
Got you. Thank you for that. Also, can you talk a little bit about current debt financing and the cost of interest, meaning the coupon rates, you're able to realize in the market right now, relative to what you're seeing other companies? And if the rate is higher relative to other utility, even though interest rates broadly are lower, how you're thinking about kind of short-term, long-term debt, the balance, and really the total debt balance you want up top with the holdco versus down at the opco?
Maria Rigatti:
Sure. So, I mean, obviously we did $400 million of holdco couple of months ago now, more than couple of months ago now. And that completed what we had announced for 2020. Not surprising to anyone on the call, EIX has been trading light of other entities. And I think that's a reflection of what -- a lot of what happened last year or even prior to [indiscernible] passed. So, we do we do have to deal with that. I'm hoping that as time passes, that will also change. Obviously the underlying treasuries are pretty low right now. So, that's a benefit when you think about the total coupon. I think as we move forward in time, Michael, like any company we’ll be trying to balance timing to market, short and long-term interest rates and the like. I would see us on a go forward basis, just making that decision to move from a short-term position to a long-term position based on what’s going in the market and working into the company. In terms of the overall debt at the holding company versus the complex, obviously, we're going to be thinking about that in terms of also keep an eye on the rating agencies. Obviously they're looking at holdco debt relative to total debt. And so, we'll be staying within those guidelines as well. So that's kind of the thought process.
Operator:
That was the last question. I will now turn the call back to Mr. Sam Ramraj.
Sam Ramraj:
So, that concludes the conference call. Thank you for joining us today. And please call us if you have any follow-up questions. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good afternoon and welcome to the Edison International First Quarter 2020 Financial Teleconference. My name is Sue, and I will be your operator today. [Operator Instructions] Today's call is being recorded. And I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Sam Ramraj, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Ramraj, you may begin your conference.
Sam Ramraj:
Thank you, Sue, and welcome, everyone. Our speakers today are President and Chief Executive Officer, Pedro Pizarro; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Maria Rigatti. Also in the call are other members of the management team. I would like to mention that we are doing this call with our Executives in different locations because of California's stay-at-home order. So please bear with us if you experience any technical difficulties on the call. Materials supporting today's call are available at www.edisoninvestor.com. These include our Form 10-K, prepared remarks from Pedro and Maria, and the teleconference presentation. Tomorrow, we will distribute our regular business update presentation. During this call, we will make forward-looking statements about the outlook for Edison International and its subsidiaries. Actual results could differ materially from current expectations. Important factors that could cause different results are set forth in our SEC filings. Please read these carefully. The presentation includes certain outlook assumptions, as well as reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure. During the question-and-answer session, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. I will now turn the call over to Pedro.
Pedro Pizarro:
Thanks Sam, and good afternoon, everyone. Let me begin by saying that our thoughts go out to those here in California and elsewhere who have been directly impacted by COVID-19, including colleagues from our Edison team. We are all facing an experience that is unprecedented and I know that your participation in today’s earnings call is likely not the routine it has been in the past. One thing that hasn’t changed in these times is our company’s commitment to the health and safety of the 13,000 women and men of Edison International and Southern California Edison, and the 15 million people and their communities who are served by SCE. This pandemic and stay-at-home orders put a spotlight on the role that the electric grid plays in all our lives. The Edison team is demonstrating their incredible commitment to continue to deliver this essential service to our customers during this historic time. I could not be prouder of our team for the way they have worked together to carry out our mission. I will dedicate much of my prepared remarks to our response to COVID-19, but first let me give you the quick financial headlines. Today, Edison International reported core earnings per share of $0.63 for the first quarter 2020, flat compared to the same period last year. Higher core EPS at SCE was fully offset by an increase in core loss per share at EIX Parent and Other. Maria will discuss our financial performance in more detail in her report. I will now turn to how the State of California has been responding to the COVID-19 crisis, how Edison has organized and responded, and how we are preparing and caring for our workforce. I will also share some of the ways in which SCE is helping customers navigate the effects of the stay-at-home executive order. Lastly, I will provide an update on the continued progress SCE has made on its wildfire mitigation work, which the CPUC and other state agencies have identified as essential work that must continue. The headline on this is that we are ensuring our wildfire mitigation work is not unduly impacted by COVID-19. In California, the Governor and Legislature have taken actions to provide emergency funding of up to $1 billion to increase hospital capacity, purchase medical equipment, assist schools and protect facilities with the state's most vulnerable residents. The State is expected to spend significantly more in total to address the emergency. When the Legislature returns, it is expected to pass a scaled-down budget by the June 15th deadline and develop a more robust budget after the extended July 15th tax filing deadline. The Governor’s budget priorities are to address COVID-19 related impacts, wildfire prevention and homelessness. We will continue to work closely with staff and senior government officials and maintain an open line of communication on the essential work that our company continues to undertake, particularly wildfire mitigation work. At Edison, our core focus is on ensuring the safety and health of our employees and providing them with the resources necessary to maintain critical operations for the benefit of our customers. Early on, SCE mobilized an Incident Management Team, or IMT, to run day-today COVID-19 response. The IMT is a group of individuals trained to respond to emergencies on our system utilizing protocols established by FEMA. I lead our Crisis Management Council, made up of senior leaders from EIX and SCE, and we check in daily with the Incident Commander and key IMT staff to provide guidance and approve new needed corporate policies. While we already had a robust pandemic response plan and had tested it in planning exercises, the reality is that the scale of the COVID-19 crisis has required us to make a number of policy changes on the fly and we continue to learn. Leveraging the experience and training of the IMT, we quickly transitioned about two-thirds of our workforce to teleworking. At the same time, we remain committed to the essential nature of the service SCE provides, which was also called out in the Governor’s stay-at-home executive order. Front-line workers and employees who support critical functions remain in the field or at certain SCE facilities while observing appropriate safety measures. Furthermore, SCE has sequestered a small number of essential personnel to ensure their availability at designated critical facilities. Questions are already being asked about whether the COVID-19 pandemic will dramatically alter how we live, work and socialize once the immediate crisis is behind us. It’s probably just too early to say with any certainty, but Edison is already preparing for the potential of longer-term changes. Some of these will be positive changes
Maria Rigatti:
Thanks Pedro. My comments today will cover first quarter 2020 results, our capital expenditure and rate base forecast, 2020 EPS guidance and other topics including the impact of COVID-19 on our operations and financial performance. As we have said previously, quarterly year-over-year comparisons are less meaningful given the timing of the 2018 GRC decision. Please turn to Page 3. Edison International reported core earnings of $0.63 per share, which was flat compared to the same period last year. Higher core EPS at SCE was fully offset by an increase in core loss per share at EIX Parent and Other, primarily due to interest expense. From the table on the right-hand side, you will see that SCE had a core EPS variance of positive $0.04 year-over-year. This was primarily driven by $0.12 of higher EPS from SCE core activities which was partially offset by $0.08 of share count dilution. There are a few items that accounted for the majority of the EPS variance at SCE. To begin with, higher revenues had a positive variance of $0.42. This was primarily driven by $0.37 of higher CPUC revenues mainly due to the adoption of the 2018 GRC final decision in Q2 2019. FERC revenues had a positive variance of $0.05 largely due to the increased equity layer, rate base growth and higher expenses. Higher O&M expenses negatively impacted year-over-year EPS by $0.28. The largest component was a $0.15 increase in vegetation management costs. This is due to a combination of higher wages and training mandated by the State’s new legislation SB 247 and an increase in the number of trims. We have discussed this in the past, but I want to pause here to summarize the methodology and impact of memo accounts. To begin, there are various expenses that qualify for tracking in the wildfire-related memo accounts. From the start of each year, we track actual costs incurred and compare that to the amounts authorized in the GRC for these same activities. Only costs that are incremental to the amounts authorized are eligible for deferral and we have to incur the full annual amount authorized in the GRC before we record a regulatory asset for the incremental expenses probable of recovery. As a result, when considering quarterly results or comparing year-over-year results, impacts can be quite pronounced and not reflective of future quarters. The timing of the expenditures and the point at which the deferrals begin drive quarter-over-quarter variances. Finally, as we have said previously, we will seek recovery of costs for which we have not recorded a regulatory asset due to a lack of precedent. Next, there was a negative $0.04 impact due to the recovery of wildfire insurance expenses in the prior year which was absent in 2020. There was also a $0.04 negative impact from costs related to short-term incentive compensation. Additionally, there was a negative $0.07 variance primarily due to an increase in the estimated allowance for bad debts related to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and higher workers' comp and legal expenses. As Pedro mentioned earlier, the CPUC approved the establishment of the new COVID-19 Pandemic Protections Memo Account, the CPPMA to track consumer protection costs for residential and small commercial customers. SCE will seek authority to record bad debt expense in excess of GRC authorized amounts and, once we exceed the 2018 GRC authorized amount for bad debts, we will recognize a regulatory asset for the amount we conclude is probable of recovery. We will track these expenses and ultimately seek cost recovery in an applicable proceeding designated by the CPUC. We expect to file an Advice Letter tomorrow including the overall scope of costs to be tracked in this account. Higher interest expense related to increased borrowings had a negative $0.03 impact. Lastly, there was a positive $0.02 income tax variance related to benefits passed back to customers, with no impact on earnings. EIX Parent and Other had a negative $0.04 core variance in the quarter. This was largely due to $0.05 of higher interest expense related to increased borrowings and was partially offset by the increase in shares outstanding. Page 4 shows SCE's capital expenditure forecast. This includes CPUC-jurisdictional GRC capital expenditures, certain non-GRC CPUC capital spending and FERC capital spending. We continue to execute a robust capital program of $19.4 to $21.2 billion from 2020 through 2023. This forecast is unchanged from what we shared with you in February. However, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, we are modifying our work practices to reduce the impact on customers as they comply with stay-at-home orders. We are working with local governments to ensure they have visibility into the essential work being planned but we continue to have a strong focus on our wildfire mitigation efforts. We are assessing the impact of this, and the broader potential impacts of COVID-19 on our 2020 capital program but are working to ensure that our customers’ needs are met in the longer term, and we continue to see significant investment opportunities as we invest in the safety and resiliency of the grid and prepare for the clean energy future. On Page 5, we show SCE’s rate base forecast. At the capital expenditure levels requested in the 2021 GRC, total weighted-average CPUC- and FERC-jurisdictional rate base will increase to $41 billion by 2023. This request level represents a compound annual growth rate of 7.5% over two rate case periods. To give you an update on the 2021 GRC, on April 10, California Public Advocates, Cal PA filed its intervenor testimony in response to the Track 1 request, in line with the schedule laid out in the scoping memo. Cal PA proposed a 2021 Test Year revenue requirement of $6.9 billion, a $651 million reduction from SCE’s request of $7.6 billion. They also proposed post-test year revenue requirement increases of 3.5% for 2022 and 2023. Overall, Cal PA proposed approving approximately 90% of SCE’s capital expenditures request. The primary difference between our request and the intervenor’s proposal was in the covered conductor program related to wildfire prevention and mitigation, and in T&D grid operations. TURN and other intervenors are scheduled to provide testimony on May 5 and our rebuttal is due on June 12. Additionally, earlier this month, the CPUC issued an amended scoping memo on the schedule and procedure for litigating the third attrition year of the 2021 GRC cycle. The ruling sets forth a Track 4 schedule beginning with SCE’s filing for 2024 in May 2022 and concluding with a proposed decision in Q4 of 2023. Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, we’ve been asked about the potential impact to revenue and earnings. We have also had conversations on the actions to strengthen our balance sheet, liquidity enhancements and the strong funding status of our pension benefits and postretirement benefits other than pensions, or PBOP, and related regulatory recovery mechanisms. I am going to take a few minutes to address these items which are laid out on Slides 6 and 7. For nearly four decades, California has had a regulatory construct that has been supportive of customers and IOUs, particularly in decoupling utility revenues from sales volumes through various cost recovery mechanisms. CPUC rates decouple authorized revenue from volumetric risk related to retail electricity sales so that SCE receives revenue equal to the authorized amounts. We track over or under collections of the CPUC base rates due to variations in load in our Base Revenue Requirement Balancing Account, or BRRBA. Annually, the differences between amounts billed and authorized levels are either collected or refunded so there is no net impact to SCE’s revenue and earnings from load changes. These adjustments address all volatility in SCE sales volumes, including from COVID-19 related developments. Additionally, as I noted earlier, we will request to use the new CPPMA to record consumer protection costs. We will seek cost recovery of these in our annual Energy Resource Recovery Account, GRC, or other proceedings. In addition to the CPPMA, SCE has activated the Catastrophic Events Memorandum Account, or CEMA, to track other COVID-19 costs. The costs we will be tracking include IT expenses to facilitate teleworking, employee benefits allowing employees to care for themselves and dependents affected by COVID-19, and other costs incurred to support the safety and well-being of our workers during this crisis. This account will also record any savings realized as a result of changes in work which will be used to offset the additional costs recorded. I also want to share with you the impact of COVID-19 on SCE’s load and on customer bills, to-date, particularly given the importance of customer protections. Through April 19, SCE has experienced a 6% decline in system load during the stay-at-home order versus the prior year. While total load is down, experience has varied across customer classes. On Slide 6, you can see the load changes within each customer class. Given the timing of billing cycles versus the start of the stay-at-home order, we are still evaluating the full impact on customer payment behavior. However, we have seen some increases in the number of outstanding accounts receivable for both commercial and residential customers. This is a likely leading indicator for an increase in deferred payments or bad debt expense. Please turn to Page 7 which includes some information on our pension benefits and PBOP. At the end of 2019, our qualified pension plans were 96% funded. Also, we are well positioned with PBOP which is managed through multiple trusts that, in total, range from approximately 80% to fully funded, as of year-end. These plans have a diversified asset allocation which provided a significant level of resiliency through the volatility we have seen in the early months of 2020. SCE makes annual contributions to its pension plans and PBOP accounts and these contributions are recoverable through a CPUC approved balancing account that allows us to true up every year to the actual contribution. Also, because we record a regulatory asset for the unfunded status of these plans, there is no impact to earnings. Please turn to Page 8. We continue to focus on ensuring we have a strong balance sheet and maintaining financial flexibility. As you can see from the bar on the page, as of April 15, EIX and SCE have a consolidated liquidity profile of $6.4 billion, which is a combination of cash on hand of $1.3 billion and available capacity on credit facilities of $5.1 billion. EIX and SCE have no long-term debt maturities for the rest of the year and approximately $1 billion of debt maturities in 2021. We have proactively de-risked our financing needs for 2020 by accessing the capital market in January, March and April. This includes issuing $2.3 billion in long-term debt at SCE and $400 million of notes at EIX. The latter funds the debt portion of the EIX 2020 financing plan. EIX also put in place an $800 million 364-day term loan to provide financing flexibility for our 2020 equity need given the recent market volatility related to COVID-19. Also, in the first quarter, SCE put in place a 364-day revolving credit facility and term loan for $1.3 billion. This will be dedicated to capital spending related to wildfire mitigation under AB 1054 that does not earn an equity return but is eligible to be recovered through a securitizable dedicated-rate component, once authorized by the CPUC. Our long-term financing framework is to execute our SCE capital growth plans while maintaining investment grade ratings at both SCE and EIX. This framework drives our previously disclosed EIX 2020 financing plan which includes the $400 million of debt at EIX, which I just discussed, and $800 million in equity, out of which $600 million is in support of the growth capital needs at SCE for 2020. The remaining $200 million is a carry-over of the equity plan we disclosed in 2019 that we expect to complete this year. As of March 31, approximately $90 million of that amount was raised through ATM and internal programs. As I have mentioned, given recent volatility in the capital markets, we put in a term loan at EIX last month to give us flexibility as we work deliberately on executing our remaining equity financing plan for 2020. Page 9 shows our 2020 guidance and the key assumptions for modeling purposes. We are re-affirming our guidance range of $4.32 to $4.62 per share. In light of the volatility introduced by COVID-19, let me explain our thoughts for not showing a bridge to the midpoint of this range as we have done in the past. Previously, our 2020 guidance started with rate base earnings from CPUC- and FERC jurisdictional assets. As you can see from the information on this slide, our assumptions for rate base earnings are unchanged, but COVID-19 will have an effect on how we execute our operational and financing plans for the remainder of this year. As I mentioned earlier, there are strong regulatory constructs in California that will mitigate the impacts of load reductions as well as incremental costs related to COVID-19. However, there may be cost savings that are realized because some activities, such as travel, have been reduced as a result of the stay-at-home order. These savings driven by COVID-19 government directives will be used to offset new costs before additional recovery is authorized. It will be a detailed and data-intensive process to determine which costs and savings are specifically COVID-19 related. Therefore, I expect that there will be more variability within and across the various earnings drivers that are typically part of our guidance, so it is more relevant to discuss the range rather than a mid-point. I look forward to giving you an update on the next earnings call as we continue to deliver this essential service to our customers and gain a more specific understanding of the impact of COVID-19 in California. That concludes our remarks.
Sam Ramraj:
Sue, please open the lines for questions. As a reminder, we request you to limit yourself to one question and one follow-up so everyone in line has the opportunity to ask questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And that comes from Jonathan Arnold with Vertical Research Partners. You may go ahead.
Jonathan Arnold:
Thank you for all the detail. Just one thing, I saw in the 10-Q I think that the wildfire - the WEMA memo accounts are up to something like just under $950 million. But could you just tie those to what you talked about in terms of the track to filing for - are those - is that a filing covering some of that number, or is that a separate piece? And then maybe an update on the WEMA proceeding itself.
Maria Rigatti:
Sure. So I think you're looking back in the notes where we show the regulatory accounts, the memo accounts, and the balancing accounts. From year-end to now that number has moved, I'll say, about $80 million. So we recorded about another $80 million in that account. So the increment that we recorded this year is actually in the next track that we will be filing with the Commission. So, if you recall, the costs incurred in 2020 are actually part of the track that gets filed in Q1 of 2021. So we'll continue to accumulate these costs. And that account that you were looking at, or in the notes, so it's line item that you're looking at, is not just the WEMA account. It's the alphabet soup of wildfire related memo accounts.
Jonathan Arnold:
But the Track 2 filing you talked about encompasses some of that balance. Is that correct?
Maria Rigatti:
That's right. The Track 2 that we filed for is seeking recovery for about $500 million of revenue requirement, and we would expect to see that decision in the early part of next year.
Jonathan Arnold:
I see. Okay.
Maria Rigatti:
The WEMA, which is primarily aimed at or associated with insurance costs, that proceeding is a little bit ahead of the Track 2 proceeding, and we are - the CDC is in the process of determining whether evidentiary hearings are required. And so, we will understand whether or not those are required and could potentially - those could take place in June and then a decision will be forthcoming following that. Right now, the parties have been asked to meet and confer to see if they actually need evidentiary hearing.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. And then maybe just as my follow-up, what are the prospects to starting to work down some of these balances coming out in 2020, and then how has your view on that evolved since last quarter?
Maria Rigatti:
So I think the timing is reasonably the same, in terms of where we think the proceedings will play out. The one thing I'd say is there is always the issue of trying to get on - you get a decision and you have to get on a calendar 30 days later to get the proposed decision, then we have to roll it into rates. So there could be some variability as a result of that. But things are still a reasonably in the same place as they were last quarter.
Operator:
The next question is from Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research. You may go ahead.
Steve Fleishman:
So just - I wanted to just make a clarification. You did reaffirm your 2020 guidance, including your current view of the impact of COVID, and is that correct? And is your commentary related to all the moving pieces in the bridge, so to speak, more just about kind of dealing with just the exact way you get there, but do you think you'll be within this range? Is that right?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes, on a lot of moving pieces. But Maria?
Maria Rigatti:
I agree with Pedro. I think that we reaffirmed the range. I think there are a lot of moving pieces. And so we do want to build that bridge, because I think it - I'll tell you, I think if I try to keep - if we try to keep putting things in very, very precise buckets, it would convey level of precision that I think would question. So I think we're just trying to be straightforward with the guidance range, and that things are still moving, and we'll be able to provide maybe more specificity as we move on through the year obviously. But right now, that's where we are.
Steve Fleishman:
Got it. And just so I get it, because I think if you get into every detail of how California mechanisms work, it's probably - it's kind of getting too much into the trees and not the forest. So just - if I'm going back up to the forest, the overall view, despite the timing of when you record things and all the different components of this, is that you do have tracking mechanisms that recover a lot of the volatility of revenue and cost, such that a lot of the issue is just the timing intra-quarter, and the way you account for things. It's not the overall picture of the forest, there's a lot of these -most of these issues are recovered.
Maria Rigatti:
Yes, I think especially memo accounts definitely create that intra-quarter year-over-year kind of variability, just because of the way the mechanics work in methodology. But I completely agree that there is a lot of mechanisms in California, some of them 40 years old, at this point, that allow us to recover a variety of costs that are under recovery or under collections avail.
Pedro Pizarro:
And let me just add one piece here, just maybe even - not even in the forest level, this might be up at the clouds level. But the reality is that when you think about all those moving pieces, if you bring it down to actual things that we're doing, there are so many decisions we've had to make and steps along the way in terms of how we are changing, how our workforce is working, what things we need to be providing our teleworking employees to do the work efficiently from home, our folks in the field, what things they need to be doing, different practices to be able to keep them safe out there, and help to our part to slow down the spread of COVID-19. And so, it's good we have all the tracking accounts. There will come a time, obviously, when we'll need to not only have the amounts track, but we'll need to demonstrate that those were prudent decisions that we made. That's why we have so much process around this in terms of the IND I described, and the crisis management council, and senior oversight over that myriad decisions. But the other piece around this is, we are having discussions informally with the CPUC, with the Governor's office, with others involved, because this is not just about how we're thinking about things, but it's about how the State overall is looking at managing through the crisis, through the pandemic, and then looking at the building blocks that will allow the State, the economy, and our company to go back to whatever the new normal is after this. And so, we're also trying to do what we're doing not in a vacuum, but consulting policymakers, consulting peer utilities in the State, outside the State. So I think that all helps bolster the case for - we're trying to do all this prudently, and it should ultimately have a good shot recovery.
Operator:
The next question is from Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs. You may go ahead.
Michael Lapides:
One easy one, which is on the BURBA. How much lag is there? Meaning, how quickly does the BURBA true-up? So if demand is down, call it 10%, in a quarter or in two quarters, and for earnings purposes, there is no impact, but from a cash flow purpose, there is an impact, how does the mechanism work from a timing perspective?
Maria Rigatti:
Michael, it's Maria. So, BURBA gets put into rates at the beginning of every year. So it's an annual true-up.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. So in other words, if you've got kind of a - I'll use the term lost revenue number, pick a number whatever it is, that lost revenue number gets put in the rates at the beginning of next year, along with any other rate adjustments?
Maria Rigatti:
That is how it's been working, yes.
Pedro Pizarro:
It's been working that way for many, many, many years.
Michael Lapides:
And it's an automatic process? Or do you have to actually file for the BURBA, go through a docket, get regulatory approval to get update?
Maria Rigatti:
BURBA works a little bit differently than ERA. You're thinking probably of our purchase power accounts, recovery accounts that they actually file, and go through, and kind of talk to people about, and then you had a decision, then we that into rates. With BURBA, what happens is it just really goes into rates automatically at the beginning of the year.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. And then one rate base growth or CapEx question. On your CapEx slide, you've got a list of things that are not included in that. And I think the last one on the list was transmission infrastructure. Can you just remind us what you're referring to, or what that implies?
Maria Rigatti:
So, I think you're looking at something that says what the long-term growth drivers are, and one of them is transmission infrastructure. We do have - some of our FERC transmission projects are certainly in the rate base calculations that we've provided here, but I think this reference is to, in California, as we move to electrifying more of the economy, will more transmission be needed, when will that be needed, and it would be a growth opportunity as that plays out over time. The CISO has not yet put out their plans for the longer-term transmission to this point.
Pedro Pizarro:
And just to piggyback on that remember, Michael, that the [indiscernible] ends of developing the overall plan, the user based on input - develop that based on input that they get from transmission owners and other market participants to be sent in and identify brand new projects in [indiscernible] call centers are open to competition, to the extent that they identify projects that are upgrades or extensions of existing projects, then the utility, as transmission owner, has a right of first refusal. And so, we don't know what their plan will be in the future for 2030, or 2045, or what have you. But I think it's probably reasonable to expect there might be some combination of projects that are extensions upgrades of existing lines that we would have - or SCE would have that right of first refusal on, and some other projects might renew completed projects.
Operator:
The next question is from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America. You may go ahead.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
So I wanted to follow up on where Steve was a second ago here and just make sure we're crystal clear about this. Maria, when you're talking about missing the forest or the trees here, and the whole conversation, I mean ultimately, the variability is pretty strictly intra-quarter. And ultimately, when you think about this netting, this netting dynamic simply reduces the ultimate amount that you're seeking from the CPUC in this new COVID account, and to the extent to which that you're seeking some net number from them and you're not able to offset everything, that number is still going to be deferred, and that's not necessarily going to show up on your income statement as an expense. Can you tell me how you're going to account for it, just to make sure I'm not missing the conceptual point that you're raising of added volatility this year?
Maria Rigatti:
So, the variability obviously covers not just COVID things but you - probably earlier in my prepared remarks, I talked about just memo accounts, and how that's working around wildfire mitigation as well. So there is a little bit of activity going on in both of those areas. So there is some variability around more than just COVID. In the COVID space, correct, we are going to be tracking all of our costs, be looking at whether or not those are costs that were just amplifications of things that were already authorized in the GRC. And so, we would be first recording all in the GRC authorized amounts, and then only would be able to defer expenses. We also go through our standard process of probability of recovery, because that's part of our quarterly process as well. And then we also have to be tracking savings that relate to these categories in terms of things that are being driven by COVID-19 government directives. And I gave an example of travel. That's a really easy one right because frankly, none of us is traveling right now. So we'll have to go through that process, and I think it could create some variability across the year. And then I think we're also going to always be looking at some of those other categories as well. And we want to make sure that we manage across all of them. And that's why, while we're reaffirming the guidance range, we didn't want to provide that level of specificity with every piece part every component with what we know today.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. And if I can follow up here, so obviously, there's a lot of earnings generations, but cash flow generations and working capital generations. I presume, given your commentary is unchanged with respect to equity cumulatively for the year, that the quantum of working capital involved with respect to decoupling, or with respect to COVID, or the litany of other accounts that you just alluded to, that fundamentally does not drive any changes in how you're thinking about balance sheet considerations, FFO metrics, et cetera, et cetera. And that's - even within that, doesn't necessarily change this notion of latitude on timing as well, I presume.
Maria Rigatti:
There's lot in there. So obviously, we're very focused on cash flows and customer payment behaviors, et cetera. We did put in an additional credit facility, but I mentioned earlier that was really focused on a certain sliver of our capital spending. So the AB 1054 capital spending, the amounts that will ultimately be securitized. So we put that into place so that would also free up our - I'll say normal course credit facilities. We have the $3 billion credit facility down at SCE, which would be the one that was aimed at customer payment issues, et cetera. But, yes, so we have been managing and putting into place various facilities that we think really help us manage the cash flow and liquidity impact. In terms of your question on the equity plan for the year, I think we announced that back in Q4. We still have the same plan. The term loan that we put in place at EIX obviously gives us flexibility around timing there. But we certainly are still have the same I'll say financing philosophy, which is to create opportunity to invest in SCE's growth opportunities, as well as to maintain investment grade ratings at both the FDE and the EIX. So we will be continuing with our plan. I think the rating agencies are very - I think find the California regulatory constructs around some of the issues we're facing with COVID-19 to be very helpful. But we're still going to be pursuing our financing plan.
Operator:
Our next question is from Jeremy Tonet with JP Morgan. You may go ahead.
Jeremy Tonet:
Just wanted to clarify here, when it comes to the earnings in not putting the bridge here that you've done in the past. Just want to clarify that not necessarily indicating the lower end of the range here, just that there is too much uncertainty right now for you to kind of provide this type of dynamic. Is that the right way to think about this?
Pedro Pizarro:
I mean, and I think Maria captured well earlier, we're reaffirming the whole guidance range. We're not providing that bridge to a midpoint, and we're just pointing out that there are a lot of moving parts and pieces right now. But we've reaffirmed the range.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. That's helpful there. And then just wanted to turn to equity funding real quick for a second. Just given really the unprecedented volatility we're seeing in the capital markets here, just wondering if in any way this has altered your strategy for raising equity, be it looking at blocks for ATM or timing of either. And also, given that a portion of 2019 equity was carried into 2020, would you consider doing equity further at this point if volatility in the marketplace continues?
Maria Rigatti:
So Jeremy I think kind of tying back to one of the earlier questions, the 2020 financing plan that we announced in Q4 is still our financing plan. What we've done to help in terms of flexibility is put the term loan in up at EIX, which, if you look at the quantum, is about the same. But our plan for 2020 continues to be our plan.
Operator:
The next question is from Stephen Byrd with Morgan Stanley. You may go ahead.
Stephen Byrd:
I wanted to just touch first on the PSPS commentary, Pedro, that you gave. It sounds like there's been a lot of work that's been done, thinking about shut off approaches. Would you mind just talking a little bit more about how that might look different this year in terms of whether it be scope duration or just approach? Any further color around sort of how that might look this year compared to last year.
Pedro Pizarro:
Sure. Yes, happy to do that. And so, like I said in the comments, there's been a lot of work going on really all through since last year. Just to remind you of last year's performance, I think it was generally similar to San Diego Gas & Electric, when you look at the percent of customers who were out throughout that. I'd call it 2% or so of the population was impacted at some point or other. And that I think was the product for a lot of years of investment in areas like sectionalizing our distribution circuits on average in high fire risk area. We can subdivide our circuit into four. So there's a high fire risk portion of that circuit, but there's three portions that are non-high fire risk. You can take one part, and not the three parts, and that limits scope. So that was one major item. And then, the other major item last year was the fact that we - particularly comparing to our colleagues at PG&E, what they have been working towards is now, we have the ability to be energized based on actual conditions, as opposed to a 48-hour ahead forecast. So, those two were really helpful last year. You look forward, what happened since last year? I thought it's good to anchor you in the starting point. We've been working on further refining. Let me start with the forecasting piece. There's been a lot of work that's been done to further refine our modeling capabilities, make them more granular tighter, tighter grid, if you will, that should allow us to have a higher fidelity in a mapping and modeling forecasting capability that should, we believe, allow us to just be a bit more targeted around it. Another advancement since last year I think I mentioned was these playbooks. So rather than having to do a fair amount of work to update the number of variables as we're getting close to the de-energization or planning for one, the team did a good job over the last year of trying to correlate the variables that are more static, things that are more repeatable, versus the ones that you really need to update in real time, and using that to have a cookbook or an instruction set on a circuit by circuit level, so that as that time approaches, we can just move a lot more quickly in terms of determining what portions of the circuit may be used to be de-energized, what customers get a heads up that they may be turned off, and where do you ultimately do that for real. And another thing we did was that - or the team did was that they took a look at our, I'll call them the frequent flyers, from last year, circuits that were de-energized multiple times because you're in the high-risk areas. And they looked at were there ways to further narrow the scope of de-energizations on those. In some cases, they might have been doing some re-wiring, or doing some - adding more sectionalization capability to further isolate the trouble spot, if you will, the higher fire risk spot within the circuit, so that instead - and I'm going to make up numbers here. But if you have a circuit were taking out 500 people, 500 customers last year several times during the year, if we can narrow that down to 50 people who are in the highest interest area, that actually reduces the overall pain across that community. And then, finally - maybe I should've started with this one. Another year means another year's worth of progress in terms of hardening the system, more covered conductor mile deployment out there. That piece in particular will continue to improve year-to-year over the course of our WMP. And so, we should see more and more risk reduction from that. When you put all that together, Stephen, if you think about it as we look at the risk informed decision to de-energize or not, that is the product of weather conditions, of fuel conditions out there, of particulars of that neighborhood. But it's also dependent on variables like how much bare wire do we have in high-risk areas versus covered conductor? And so, that's why the hardening of the system will continue to decrease the risk profile year-on-year and allow us to continue to decrease the number of customers impacted. Bottom line on all that - so it was a little long-winded, but there's a lot that's gone on. Bottom line is that if we saw the same exact same weather conditions that we did last year, we would expect some proportionately smaller amount of the energy station. Of course, we won't see the exact same conditions as last year, but it just gives you a sense that there's been some meaningful progress.
Stephen Byrd:
That's extremely helpful. And just one separate question on your EV infrastructure program. Would you mind just providing a high-level update on the status of that program in terms of implementation, key milestones from here, just kind of thinking about the pace of that rollout as you try to meet the increased EV penetration in the state? How do we generally stand on the pace of that program?
Pedro Pizarro:
Sure. So remember - I'll summarize this as key large programs. One is the heavy - sort medium and heavy duty charge ready transport program, for which we already have full CPUC approval and the $340 million range or so and that's a multi-year program. And then the second large program is our Charge Ready program. There, we've had approval for- we had a pilot that had been approved to the tune around $22 million or so. We had an extension of that. Basically gave us about the same amount to continue in pilot mode or a bridge mode, while the CPUC considers our larger application for what would be around a $750 million program all ended in capital and O&M but $550 million of that I think is capital. And so that application is sitting at the CPUC. I believe they have extended the deadline for considering it until June 30 of this year. When the extended that six months ago or four months ago when the six-month extension they - I think it's Commissioner [Virchow] who is the lead Commissioner on this docket and he said he expected that will be a PD out early in the year. I don't think we've seen a PD out yet but certainly, understandably, there's a lot going on with the COVID impacts, et cetera, but we have not heard anything different from the June 30 deadline that they've talked so we look forward to hopefully getting that approved in that timeframe. In the meantime, we made a lot of progress in terms of both deployments on the Charge Ready transport and the passenger vehicle Charge Ready. I will tell you through this COVID period some of that work has slowed down just because it requires working in close proximity. Probably it's less essential than say, working on a pole to keep the lights on, and customers and sales may not be ready on the customer premise to have somebody come in and work on the installation stuff. So, there has been some slowdown in that and that's one of the pieces we're looking at. How does that ramp back up as we follow the lead of the governor and the state and re-opening up the economy. But I think that there's a long-term need for that. That continues unabated and in fact, some of the early discussions of the Governor's Task Force has been all about how - again as I think I mentioned, this is not just about the near-term reopening but how do you bolster the economy for the long term and clean energy and electrification are viewed as a big part of that long-term plan for the state.
Operator:
Thank you. And that was the last question. I will now turn the call back to Mr. Sam Ramraj.
Sam Ramraj:
Thank you, Sue. And thanks everyone for joining us today. Please call us if you have any follow-up questions. This concludes the conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good afternoon, and welcome to the Edison International Fourth Quarter 2019 Financial Teleconference. My name is Michelle, and I will be your operator today. [Operator Instructions]. Today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Sam Ramraj, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Ramraj, you may begin your conference.
Sam Ramraj:
Thank you, Michelle, and welcome, everyone. Our speakers today are President and Chief Executive Officer, Pedro Pizarro, and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Maria Rigatti. Also here are other members of the management team. Materials supporting today's call are available at www.edisoninvestor.com. These include our Form 10-K, prepared remarks from Pedro and Maria and the teleconference presentation. Tomorrow, we will distribute our regular business update presentation. During this call, we will make forward-looking statements about the outlook for Edison International and its subsidiaries. Actual results could differ materially from current expectations. Important factors that could cause different results are set forth in our SEC filings. Please read these carefully. The presentation includes certain outlook assumptions as well as reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure. During the question-and-answer session, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. I will now turn the call over to Pedro.
Pedro Pizarro:
Thank you, Sam, and good afternoon, everyone. Today, Edison International reported core EPS of $4.70 for 2019 compared to $4.15 a year-ago. The increase in core EPS was primarily due to the approval of the 2018 General Rate Case and higher FERC revenues. This was partially offset by higher wildfire mitigation costs and an increase in the number of shares outstanding. Maria will discuss our financial performance in more detail during her remarks. We believe that SCE and California are beginning 2020 with a very different wildfire risk profile than the previous two years. Edison particularly commends the State’s efforts on wildfire suppression and the improved coordination among utility, state and local emergency management personnel. Also, the State’s enactment of Assembly Bill 1054 had a stabilizing effect on the financial health of California’s investor-owned utilities. We have been pleased with the continued implementation of the AB 1054 regulatory framework. This includes the issuance of our safety certification last year, the appointments to the new California Catastrophe Response Council and Wildfire Safety Advisory Board, and our recently filed 2020 to 2022 Wildfire Mitigation Plan. We also are encouraged by the CPUC’s timely approval of SCE’s 2020 Cost of Capital application and the proposed schedule for SCE’s 2021 General Rate Case. However, much work remains to be done. For SCE, this particularly means obtaining decisions on outstanding proceedings at the CPUC. This includes the Grid Safety and Resiliency Program settlement, SCE’s Wildfire Expense Memorandum Account application, the capital structure waiver application related to the accounting for our 2017 and 2018 charges, and the litigation of the various phases of SCE’s 2021 GRC application. Additionally, in 2020, SCE expects to continue to work with legislators, regulators and communities to improve public safety power shutoff, or PSPS, related operations. At the same time, we are moving forward with our vision for a sustainable and clean energy future. I will discuss more about this later. This past year, SCE aggressively executed the comprehensive wildfire mitigation strategy laid out in our Grid Safety and Resiliency Program and 2019 Wildfire Mitigation Plan. Since 2018, SCE has installed more than 500 miles of covered conductor, over 480 micro weather stations and more than 160 high-definition cameras covering 90% of high fire risk areas, reaching our effective saturation point for cameras. We were able to go beyond the compliance targets in our 2019 WMP in many areas as we work to reduce wildfire risk as quickly as possible. We also completed enhanced inspection of all of our overhead infrastructure in our high fire risk areas during the first 5 months of the year. In the past, this would have been performed over a 5-year period. SCE’s recently filed 2020 to 2022 Wildfire Mitigation Plan will advance our risk-prioritization approach. This plan includes ground-based and aerial inspections for higher-risk transmission and distribution assets beyond standard inspection cycles, building on the lessons learned from our comprehensive enhanced overhead inspection program in 2019. The plan also calls for us to further harden infrastructure, bolster situational awareness capabilities and enhance operational practices while harnessing data analytics and technology. The plan includes specific metrics that provide transparency to the public and other stakeholders and will enable the CPUC to evaluate SCE’s performance. In our filing, SCE has proposed spending approximately $3.8 billion in capital and O&M over the 3-year plan period. Last October, parts of our service territory faced many days of elevated wildfire threat conditions marked by severe winds, low humidity and dry fuel. During these periods, SCE exercised our PSPS protocols to protect the public from the risk of electric equipment causing a fire. Patrols conducted after those PSPS events found over 40 impacts from the severe conditions, including equipment damage and tree branches contacting power lines. This further validated the importance of preventive de-energization as a safety measure under severe weather conditions. SCE understands that PSPS can be a hardship for our customers and communities. We utilized an extensive community outreach effort to help customers prepare for these events. We have learned from these experiences and are working to improve our wildfire mitigation and PSPS resilience capabilities. Our number one priority continues to be the safety of the public, our customers, employees and first responders. SCE has also spent significant time educating customers, communities, and state and local government officials on our PSPS-related efforts to demonstrate the vast amount of work and data analysis that go into our decision-making on PSPS events. As more mitigations are deployed, we expect to reduce the scope and impact of PSPS, but PSPS will have to remain available as a tool to mitigate wildfire risk during severe weather and high Fire Potential Index events. I would now like to give you an update on our accounting reserve related to the 2017 and 2018 wildfire and mudslide events. You will recall that in the fourth quarter of 2018, SCE recorded a gross liability of $4.7 billion for the low end of the estimable loss range for these events. We regularly reassess this reserve, which includes our internal assessment of damage estimates, known and expected third-party claims, litigation proceedings and risks, and prior experience litigating and settling wildfire related claims. In our latest assessment, we increased the estimated losses for claims related to the 2017 and 2018 wildfire and mudslide events by $232 million to a gross estimate of $4.9 billion. While this estimate is determined on an aggregate basis, some of the factors we evaluated in connection with the review contributed to a significant increase in certain loss estimates, while others contributed to a significant decrease. Also, we lowered our accrued liabilities by the $360 million settlement reached in the fourth quarter with a number of local public entities. These changes led to a revised pre-tax accrued liability of $4.5 billion for the 2017 and 2018 wildfire and mudslide events. After adjusting this gross liability for $1.6 billion of remaining insurance coverage and $149 million for a FERC regulatory asset, the net after-tax charge for these events is $1.98 billion, which is an increase of $157 million from our previous estimate. I would now like to provide an update on our operational and service excellence efforts and a few of the key non-financial metrics our Board uses in measuring our performance. Operational and service excellence starts with the safety of our workers and our communities. This is a major priority across our company and is at the very top of our core values. Our 2019 performance on worker safety had mixed results. While we did not have any employee fatalities, there were three worker fatalities among our contractor workforce. And our hearts continue to go out through their families and loved ones. The number of serious SCE employee injuries in 2019 fell by more than 50% from 2018, but our rate of injuries leading to days away, on restricted duty, or transferred, known as the “DART” rate was worse than our target. We did, however, and importantly, successfully complete an enterprise-wide safety culture training program that has received strong reviews from our employees and lays the foundation for long-term improvement. Our goals related to improving public safety are tied to the implementation of the wildfire resiliency measures outlined in our GSRP and 2019 Wildfire Mitigation Plan. We made significant progress in these areas as I discussed earlier. Among other key measures, our customer satisfaction and system reliability fell short of our targets. Our performance was heavily impacted by maintenance and repair activities related to wildfire mitigation, the installation of new equipment to harden our electric system, and PSPS de-energizations to safeguard our communities during dangerous fire weather conditions. We also deployed additional digital technologies to transform processes across our business and improve the quality and efficiency of our operations. For example, we rolled out new mobile solutions to support our enhanced overhead inspections and used robotic process automation to improve outage notification to customers. We continued our focus on sustainability, particularly on addressing climate change. We are committed to delivering 60% renewable power by 2030 and 100% clean energy by 2045, which are among the most aggressive targets in the industry. Last quarter, I announced the release of our Pathway 2045 white paper, which shows the changes required across California’s economy to meet the state’s 2045 carbon neutrality goals will be profound. We are focused on doing our part, such as accelerating transportation electrification. Today, SCE is implementing the largest electric truck and transit utility initiative in the nation by installing charging infrastructure to support approximately 8,500 medium- and heavy-duty vehicles at 870 sites by 2024, through our $356 million Charge Ready Transport program. We are also awaiting CPUC approval for our $750 million Charge Ready 2 application that will support over 50,000 passenger vehicle chargers. This sound big, but we believe this is just a fraction of the new technologies and infrastructure that will be needed to support California’s economy in the years ahead, which further underscores the need for resilient and financially strong utilities. To conclude, we are making significant investments over the near-term in grid hardening and resiliency. At the same time, we continue to see significant long-term investment opportunities in our business related to addressing California’s 2045 climate goals. We have a robust capital program over the next few years that, if approved, will invest more than $5 billion annually on infrastructure replacement, transportation electrification, transmission infrastructure and wildfire mitigation. As you can see, we have a continuing focus on safety and resiliency, operational excellence and strategic advancement of policy objectives. Our near-term priorities to improve safety and mitigate wildfire risk will enable the reliable and resilient grid that is needed to accelerate toward the state’s clean energy goals and achieve our Pathway 2045 vision for California, including increased use of zero-carbon resources and broad electrification of the economy. With that, Maria will provide her financial report.
Maria Rigatti:
Thank you, Pedro, and good afternoon, everyone. My comments today will cover fourth quarter and full-year 2019 results, our capital expenditure and rate base forecast, 2020 EPS guidance and financing framework. As we’ve said, year-over-year comparisons for 2019 are less meaningful given the timing of the 2018 GRC decision. Please turn to Page 2. For the fourth quarter 2019, Edison International reported core earnings of $0.99 per share, which was $0.05 higher than the same period last year. From the table on the right-hand side, you will see that SCE had a core EPS variance of positive $0.07 year-over-year. This was primarily driven by $0.17 of higher EPS from SCE core activities which was partially offset by $0.10 of dilution from an increase in shares outstanding. There are a few items that accounted for the majority of the EPS variance at SCE. To begin with, higher revenues had a positive variance of $0.32. This was primarily driven by $0.19 of higher CPUC revenues largely as a result of the GRC escalation mechanism and lower income tax benefits refunded to customers in our tax balancing account, which is offset in income taxes. FERC revenues had a positive variance of $0.13 due to higher expenses, rate base growth and increased ROE from the 2019 settlement of the 2018 Formula Rate proceeding. Higher O&M expenses negatively impacted year-over-year EPS by $0.03. This was largely driven by an increase in wildfire mitigation expenses. I will discuss more about this when we cover full-year variances. During the quarter, we recorded a $0.05 charge for the self-insured retention under our wildfire insurance, primarily related to 2019 wildfires. We treated this charge as core to remain consistent with how we treat deductibles for expenses that are covered by insurance. Higher net financing costs related to increased borrowings had a negative $0.03 impact. There was also a $0.07 lower income tax benefit, which primarily reflects tax benefits captured through our tax balancing account as noted earlier. EIX Parent and Other had a negative $0.02 core variance in the quarter. This was largely due to $0.07 of higher interest expense related to increased borrowings, partially offset by a $0.05 positive variance at Edison Energy due to the 2018 goodwill impairment. Please turn to Page 3. For the full-year, Edison International core earnings per share increased $0.55 to $4.70 per share. This includes an improvement in core earnings of $0.59 at SCE partly offset by higher EIX Parent and Other costs of $0.04. While the full-year and fourth quarter earnings analysis are largely consistent, I will highlight a few areas. You will see a positive $0.20 impact from the retroactive application of the 2018 GRC decision that was recorded in Q2. Also, we have positive $0.13 in FERC revenues related to SCE’s 2018 Formula Rate settlement, which includes $0.10 we recorded in the third quarter. Finally, for the year, there was a positive $0.14 income tax variance primarily related to benefits that are passed back to customers through the tax balancing account, with no impact on earnings. Related specifically to wildfire mitigation activities, for the full-year, we recorded expenses of $519 million to the related memo accounts. We recorded regulatory assets for $400 million of the spend that most closely resemble historical precedents. As you know, a regulatory asset is only recorded when there is objectively verifiable precedent for recovery. We have not recorded a regulatory asset for the remaining $119 million, pre-tax, and I would like to provide some additional context for these amounts which are reflected in O&M expenses for the year. The scale of this mitigation effort is unlike what we have seen in the past and there are some activities for which there is no historical precedent. During the year, we had to increase crews, project management personnel and other human resources to execute our wildfire mitigation programs. We also managed and sequenced the work in order to reduce risk as quickly as possible which also contributed to higher costs. The higher volume of work that drove increases in crew, human resource and execution costs in high fire risk areas also drove increased costs in non-high fire risk areas. We don’t have a precedent where incremental cost impacts in one program or geographic area drive incremental costs in another area. So, we’ve not recorded regulatory assets for all the costs incurred, particularly the incremental costs in non-high fire risk areas. However, SCE is seeking full recovery of these costs through separate tracks of the 2021 GRC. Page 4 shows SCE’s capital expenditure forecast. This includes CPUC-jurisdictional GRC capital expenditures, certain non-GRC CPUC capital spending and FERC capital spending. From 2020 through 2023, we are forecasting a robust $19.4 billion to $21.2 billion capital program. This represents an increase of approximately $200 million from our previous forecast and is primarily due to higher spending on wildfire mitigation. In January, the CPUC extended the GRC cycle by adding a fourth year for SCE and other large utilities. As a result, SCE is required to file an amendment to its 2021 GRC application to add an attrition year for 2024. We are awaiting further direction from the Commission on the timing of this amendment. On Page 5, we show SCE’s rate base forecast. At the capital expenditure levels requested in the 2021 GRC, total weighted-average CPUC and FERC jurisdictional rate base will increase to $41 billion by 2023. Spanning two rate case periods, this represents a 6-year compound annual growth rate of 7.5% at the request level. To develop a range of outcomes, management is applying a 10% reduction to the rate base forecast, based on our historical experience of previously authorized amounts and other operational considerations. At this level, SCE’s rate base forecast reflects a compound annual growth rate of 6.6%. Pages 6 and 7 show our 2020 guidance and the key assumptions for modeling purposes. As we have in the past, let’s begin with rate base earnings. This reflects the CPUC jurisdictional rate base authorized in the 2018 GRC as well as the recently approved ROE and capital structure from the 2020 Cost of Capital decision. We settled the 2018 transmission rate case and that rate was in effect until early November 2019. However, we have not yet resolved the subsequent case and had to make an assumption regarding the FERC ROE in 2020. As you know, FERC has varied its approach to determining ROE over the past few years and its approach remains unsettled, with FERC currently considering rehearing requests to the MISO Order. We believe that methodologies resulting in FERC ROEs lower than state-level ROEs will result in sub-optimal investment decisions. At this time, we are basing guidance on a 2020 FERC ROE that is comparable to our CPUC ROE of 10.3%. Finally, FERC has historically used recorded capital structure to determine revenues. This is forecasted at 47% in 2020 and does not benefit from the CPUC exclusions related to AB 1054 and other items. Based on the actual 2019 weighted average share count of 339.7 million, these items result in a rate base EPS outlook of $5.17. Let’s next discuss SCE operating and financial variances which add to rate base earnings. This is forecasted at a net contribution of $0.20, which is not as large as we have seen in some prior years. There are a number of drivers to this. First, as noted earlier, on January 1, the CPUC cost of capital decision was implemented, and the embedded cost of debt and preferred equity were adjusted to actual, reducing previous financing benefits. On the operating side, we continue to manage costs, which ultimately benefits our customers. However, $0.14 of costs related to wildfire mitigation activities represent a larger offset to other items, such as AFUDC, than we have seen historically. As I discussed earlier, we will pursue recovery of these incremental costs that we record in wildfire memo accounts. However, lacking a historical precedent, we do not assume we will meet the accounting requirements for deferral. We expect the drag related to wildfire mitigation activities to be removed in 2021 since the costs are included in the 2021 GRC revenue request. Finally, we also include $0.02 related to expected energy efficiency earnings. Moving to the right in the chart, SB 901 and AB 1054 included certain items that are not recovered in rates. In 2020 guidance, we highlight the annualized cost of interest expense related to the wildfire insurance fund contribution and the non-recovery of disallowed executive compensation. These amount to a total drag of $0.10. Finally, for EIX Parent and Other, we expect a total drag of $0.41. This includes holdco and other operating expenses at the previously communicated rate of approximately $0.01 per month, or $0.14 for the year. The balance of $0.27 is the after-tax interest cost, including the expected impact of the $400 million debt issuance that is part of the 2020 financing plan. The impact from share count dilution in 2020 can be broken down into two areas. The first is the full-year impact of the shares issued in 2019 and this translates to $0.30. The second area is the impact related to the $800 million equity issuance in 2020. This results in another $0.09 of dilution in our 2020 EPS guidance. I will discuss the 2020 financing plan that relates to these debt and equity assumptions embedded in guidance in a moment. Overall, this results in 2020 EPS guidance of $4.47 per share with a range of $4.32 to $4.62 per share. This range is slightly wider than in the past and accommodates the large number of items that are being resolved in proceedings outside our typical General Rate Case. Please turn to Slide 8 and we will discuss the rationale and strategy for our 2020 funding plan and longer-term outlook. The objective is to provide details regarding 2020 as well as a framework that informs our longer-term approach. Over the past two years, there have been some unique issues that have informed our financing plans, including the Wildfire Insurance Fund contribution. One constant has been the robust level of capital spending required to make our grid more resilient and prepare for the clean energy future. As we discussed earlier, SCE is estimating approximately $5 billion per year of capital spending over the next several years. One key part of our framework is to deliver on these capital plans, while we maintain investment grade ratings at both SCE and EIX. That overarching tenet informs the 2020 financing plan and will also influence us in the longer run as we are targeting a long-term FFO-to-debt ratio of 15% to 17%. We also look forward to a point when this ratio level will be supportive of a ratings improvement as the rating agencies’ view of wildfire risk and their general California outlook further improves. This longer-term ratings framework has implications for our near-term financing plan. First, we are spending significant amounts on wildfire mitigation and wildfire insurance and those amounts are not yet being recovered in rates. Even though we expect the Commission to begin addressing some of the amounts this year, and while this spending provides additional operational risk mitigation, these items will continue to challenge our near-term credit metrics until the proceedings are resolved and the balances are worked down. Second, while very few claims have yet been paid related to the 2017, '18 events, some rating agencies are burdening our credit metrics with imputed debt equivalent to their assumptions around our liability to pay those claims. With this framework and factors in mind, the holdco financing plan for 2020 includes $800 million in equity, of which $600 million supports the growth capital need at SCE. The remaining $200 million is a carry-over related to the equity plan we disclosed in 2019 that we expect to complete this year. We have the flexibility to address this total equity need through a variety of approaches, including our ATM and internal programs. The plan also includes $400 million of debt as mentioned earlier. In 2019, we deployed significant capital to meet our customers’ needs and we expect this to continue. Given this level of growth at the utility, our dividend payout ratio and current ratings, as supported by the 2020 equity issuance, we expect minimal equity requirements to fund our ongoing capital expenditures beyond 2020. With regard to wildfire-related costs, this financing plan is also predicated on requested cost recovery on the memorandum accounts, the current level of liabilities reflected on our balance sheet for the 2017 and 2018 wildfire and mudslide events and timely resolution of SCE’s capital structure waiver request. If there is a material change in these wildfire-related assumptions, we will then reevaluate our balance sheet requirements using the same framework that drove our current and prior year plans, that is, we will work to maintain our investment grade ratings and our financing approach will be consistent with that objective. That concludes my remarks.
Sam Ramraj:
Michelle, please open the call for questions. As a reminder, we request you to limit yourself to one question and one follow-up, so everyone in line has an opportunity to ask questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from Praful Mehta from Citigroup. Your line is now open.
Pedro Pizarro:
Hello, Praful.
Praful Mehta:
Thanks so much. Hi, guys.
Maria Rigatti:
Hi.
Praful Mehta:
Sorry, I’ve been juggling calls, so if I repeat the question, then sorry about that. But just wanted to understand from the progress on the wildfire mitigation activities, could you give us a sense for how you feel in 2020 versus 2019, in terms of the efforts on the ground so far? And how you expect the Wildfire fund in terms of sufficiency to be with all the risk on the wildfire side?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes, thanks, Praful, and you’re the first question, so can tell you don’t repeat any. So as far as the preparations that I mentioned in my remarks, there's been a lot of work that we've done. And we think that that certainly helps to continue to advance the ball in terms of mitigation and risk reduction. But importantly, it's not just the work that we're doing. It's also the work that the state is doing and that other entities are doing. And frankly, greater consciousness about fire prevention and preparedness across the state. And so I think in our last earnings call, I probably mention how as we had made our way through the bulk of 2019, we saw there one of the key factors in the mix in addition to the work we were doing, the early stages of things like covered conductor or replacement, the impact of PSPS, which we saw. I mentioned in my remarks already that after the big wave in October, we sold over 40 instances of issues that could have turned into ignition, that were not an ignition, because we’ve used PSPS. But I mentioned in the call, that we have seen a remarkable difference in the state's capacity around fire suppression. And the impact from the governors actions in terms of increasing the state budget to add firefighters and equipment, speed of response, and so that made a significant impact in 2019. As we now head into 2020, I don't know if you're aware, but the governor in his 2020 budget proposal talked about increasing firefighting resources by another, I believe, 625 individuals over the next five years, taking a good chunk of that in 2020. So the fact that it's not just our work, but the work by the State in areas like fire suppression, that all helps. Now in terms of answering your question quantitatively in terms of the funds, that's harder to do. I'll remind you that when AB 1054 was being debated, the state, I think through the governor's team had some analysis that showed a 94% probability of the fund surviving at least 10 years based on a number of assumptions. That I think baked into it, some concept that over the course of those 10 years, utilities and others were continuing to improve in terms of their risk reduction. So I can't tell you quantitatively what that means in terms of, percent risk reduced, but I'll tell you, we're in a much stronger place this year than we were last year or the year before. That said, the risk is not zero and I don't think the risk will ever be zero. Given the realities of California.
Praful Mehta:
Got it. Got it. As always, pretty comprehensive answer. So I appreciate that. Just separately on the equity side, quickly, we get the $800 million need. But as I look at going forward, post the 2020 timeframe, are you looking at like an ongoing equity need driven by the SCE equity needs, or you keep the holdco debt kind of flat? How should we think about the ongoing post 2020 kind of equity needs going forward?
Maria Rigatti:
Yes. Praful, this is Maria. I think what we're trying to lay out for both is sort of that framework where on a long-term basis we will be targeting the metrics, 15% to 17% FFO to debt. As we think about the capital program related to the capital program, we actually see a minimal equity going forward at those levels. I think, I'm trying to pinpoint a very precise level. So it's not a particularly quantitative response, but we just don't really see a need for significant new equity for that. Separately, we did -- I just did mention, we made certain assumptions around wildfire issues as well, whether that's recovery on minimal accounts, the level of liabilities associated with those wildfires, the capital structure waiver. If we see material changes there, we'll revisit our balance sheet needs, again, within that 15% to 17% metric framework.
Praful Mehta:
Got it. Thank you, guys. Lots more questions, I will get back in queue. I appreciate it.
Pedro Pizarro:
Hey, Thanks, Praful.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Steve Fleishman from Wolfe Research. Your line is now open.
Pedro Pizarro:
Hi, Steve.
Steven Fleishman:
Hey, good afternoon. I'm just curious on the capital structure waiver request. I think PG&E also has a similar one. Could you just give us an update is there any process of knowing when that will likely get rolled on? And is there any like real opposition to it, or are you just waiting for an answer?
Maria Rigatti:
So this is a reminder. We did file for that last February when we took the charge. The two things that we asked for on the capital structure waiver were that -- would be that the charge itself would be excluded from the calculation of our capital structure. And the debt associated with paying any liabilities or claims would also be excluded from the capital structure until the commission made a decision as to whether or not we will get recovery for that. The request is impending for a while. Interveners have filed various comments, some of which have really been around. Actually, some of the interveners actually said they think our request was ripe yet at the time because we still are in compliance on with the 37 month average. As part of our cost of capital proceeding, the ALJ sort of like pushed it out a little bit. But once we got the decision, ask us to -- each of us to answer a particular question, not all of which were pretty relevant for us. Some of them were more related to PG&E, largely around whether or not there should be a set date at which the waiver kind of stops being effective. And then also certain implications for customers. We filed those comments actually were not in your replied comments, I believe, in return for those. And then the commission has set a deadline or their regulatory processes that they have to issue a decision before August. Of course, they have flexibility in terms of determining whether or not they extend that. But that's the status right now. We don't have a date for when we will hear back. Until we do receive the waiver, we would be deemed to be in compliance. And even if you look at our numbers today and calculate where we are, even if we do the calculation on the basis of not getting the waiver, we're in compliance with the 37 month rolling average.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay. And one other question. Just looking at the 2020 variances -- excuse me, related to the I guess the SCE variances, as you mentioned, the $0.14 incremental wildfire, you would hopefully have a recovery in 2021, and you are through the GRC. The financial operating other than $0.32, not necessarily specifically that number, but that’s been there for a while. So I assume there should be some sustainability to that portion continuing?
Maria Rigatti:
That bucket includes a lot of things. It includes financing benefits which actually do change from time to time. This year they would have changed because we adjusted the embedded costs of debt and equity due to the capital -- cost of capital proceeding decision. Every year when we have a new rate case, we get back benefits to customers. So we're continuing to try and really manage our costs because that overall helps us in terms of system average rate and how we implement all of our capital plans as well. So we do have an ability to manage through in those areas. But you'll see different mixes from time to time and you could potentially see things go up and down just because we are starting new rate case cycle.
Steven Fleishman:
Great. Thank you.
Pedro Pizarro:
Thanks, Steve.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Julian Dumoulin-Smith from Bank of America. Your line is now open.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey, good afternoon.
Pedro Pizarro:
Hey, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
[Indiscernible] howdy. So perhaps I want to focus on the credit metrics here a little bit further and just understand the 15% to 17% FFO-to-debt metric. A, where are you today? And b, how do you think about latitude relative to that metric? Sort of a; under a variety of scenarios and specifically thinking here around some of the imputation issues that you already alluded to. Maybe ask in a more simplistic way, how are you thinking about getting the rating agencies do not impute a certain amount of liability? And how do you think about the latitude that you possess today, sort of on an ongoing basis? And again, this kind of gets back to the last question that Steve just asked about your variances, and what that might look like on a normalized basis? But I'll let you respond now.
Maria Rigatti:
Okay. So I think first question is, how do we feel about having the liabilities imputed, I guess before the termination is to whether or not we will get recovery. Certainly, we've had lots of ongoing conversations with the rating agencies around this. I think at this point in time, because, again, similar to our requirement to take the charge and not have a regulatory asset put against it, because there's really no President here. I think that's a place where the rating agencies are going to want to see some actual cost recovery absent before they would actually take a step back and not impute the debt. I think that that's an ongoing conversation as we see more things happen with the commission, potentially that will be a conversation that we can continue to have with them. But this is where they are right now. I mean, that's just a fact. In terms of sort of where we are relative to our mentoring, I'll be really frank with you. Right now, I think we are -- metrics a little bit challenged. A lot of it having to do with the fact that we are not getting recovery real time on those wildfire mitigation expenses and the wildfire insurance because we do have a lot of dollars that are capital related, but we actually have a lot of dollars that are O&M related, which you would normally get recovery on in a lot quicker turnaround, or in real --I'll say in real time. I think that we've had those discussions and ongoing dialogues with the rating agencies around that as well. And I think they understand that. But again, that's why in the closing part of my remarks earlier, I said, the financing plan was predicated on certain assumptions, one of which was, timely recovery of the amounts in those accounts. To the extent we see things going in a different direction, we will have to revisit that.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. If I may just clarify that quickly. With what you just said there, are you basically saying the $0.14, for instance, of income at the wildfire mitigation costs? That would be what you're talking about of timely recovery here, principally in those variances. And then secondly, going back to what you just said, are you alluding to securitization or when you think about getting comfortable here, is that just simply being able to successfully tap into this newly created fund?
Maria Rigatti:
So I'm going to ask you to clarify that last part. But in terms of the first question that you asked, on the $0.14, it's not just the $0.14 I realize no one look at our 10-K yet, but if you look at that, we are actually under a cover right now about $868 million. So the $0.14 that you see in 2020 guidance are the amounts that do not have a regulatory asset booked against us. Right now at the end of 2019, we're already in part of -- there are things that we have regulatory assets on the books for as well. Cash out the door that we had not yet collected in about $868 million. So it's all of the above.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
That’s fair. And then the second piece there was just when you were saying that the credit rating agencies needed to get comfort here, that was about your ability to tap into the front end actually successfully doing so?
Maria Rigatti:
No, no. I’m not getting comfortable with the cash flow from these [indiscernible] accounts etcetera, will be timely. That’s all.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Okay. You don’t actually need to tap the fund or the securitization to get comfortable.
Maria Rigatti:
No, no.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Okay, sorry. I didn’t want to …
Maria Rigatti:
I mean, just to be clear, Julien, I think the overall comfort with California should increase over time and its going to be related to all the factors that you just described, but I was speaking more narrowly.
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes. I mean, just to make sure that its really clear. There was a time when a 15% to 17% FFO-to-debt would have implied a higher level of credit ratings. There is discount being applied in terms of how they view California risk. We would hope that over time as they see continued implementation of AB 1054, the machinery in place , that also translating into reduced overall wildfire risk. We’d hope that there's some reassessments over time of what credit rating is implied by that kind of range.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Expectations, guys.
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes, thanks, Julien.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Paul Freeman from Mizuho. Your line is now open.
Pedro Pizarro:
Hi, Paul.
Paul Freeman:
Hey, thank you very much. You guys, I think have revised, obviously, the low end estimate on wildfire exposure. At what point do you -- would you expect that you would have an estimate on the high-end?
Pedro Pizarro:
That continues to be really challenging. And as we continue to look at all the various facts, I think as I mentioned in my comments, we looked at a broad set of factors as we do our assessments. And just as I shared as we did this revision, some things went up significantly, some things went down significantly. So we continue to have a hard time seeing how we would define a high-end. It may be that we don't end up being able to define a high-end. But, for example, if we continue to see resolution of the uncertainties through whether it be, additional settlements or a court process later on the regulatory process, then as those pieces fall into place, you might -- you would see us do what we've done here, which is that, with the $360 million settlement, that uncertainty gets taken off the table. And now we know -- the range may be narrower. We define what the low end might be for the remaining liabilities. But just be honest with you, given the nature of these wildfire cases and all the ins and outs, it's unclear to me whether we would get to a place where we can define a hard and fast 75% probability under accounting rules, high-end of the range. Maria, do you have any different view of that? That makes sense, Paul?
Paul Freeman:
Yes. I would assume that when you actually are paying out the claims that you're going to book at least an equivalent NOL to the charge off that you took in 2018, can we get a sense of the timeframe over which that NOL could materialize?
Maria Rigatti:
So we put the tax impacts when we took the charge. I think your question may be like when we become a cash tax payer? And we would expect or right now, obviously, the future will inform this as well. But right now we're estimating that EIX becomes a cash taxpayer around 2027.
Paul Freeman:
Great. And maybe the last question for me. Historically, I think in terms of AFUDC, you've talked about executive comp, you've talked about advertising, charitable donations as offsets. The only offset that I've heard so far is executive comp. So should we expect that you should be able to recognize the remaining portion of equity AFUDC?
Maria Rigatti:
So we may be talking past each other a little bit here, but when we provided the sort of walk over for 2020 guidance, we included all those -- I know historically, we've kind of enumerated a whole laundry list of things that are in the bars that are to the right. Included in that bar, that’s $0.20 net benefit, are all the things that you were just talking about. So it isn't as they've sort of gone away. They're just all included there. We've broken some out to give you a little bit more specificity. And then to the right of that, AB 1054, SB 901 items, those are I'll call those newer issues. They weren’t historically in the set of things that we discussed. But post the legislation, those are things that we know we cannot get recovery on as per the legislation.
Paul Freeman:
So as we go out sort of two years beyond 2020, I mean, should we expect that there would be no material offsets to that?
Maria Rigatti:
So what we try to do when we laid out the chart is to identify things that you might consider, things that are new. So the SB 901, AB 1054 items, and then some things that we think will not continue because, as for example, the incremental wildfire mitigation costs that we don't currently have a rig asset against because those things will get incorporated into our 2021 GRC revenue. We will continue as we always have, try and manage our costs, that we create headroom, which ultimately benefits our customers. So I think that we have the same approach to how we manage the business on a go forward basis. We just wanted to give you more visibility into some of these new components.
Paul Freeman:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Next question will come from Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.
Michael Lapides:
Hi. I'm trying to ask a simplifying question, which is how do you think about the path to get to what is a normal earnings power and how long it takes kind of and the key things that have to happen to get you there?
Maria Rigatti:
So I think one of the things, Michael, is that what we've been seeing the past few years is that more things are happening outside the general rate case. We've always had balancing accounts and those are actually good things. They're very constructive in terms of sort of visibility, etcetera. But what we have now, in addition to the balancing accounts, which generally are cover amounts, that is either already been reviewed or we have a lot of history with them in terms of recovery. Now we have a lot of memo accounts. And the memo accounts help us avoid sort of a retroactive rate making issue, but they don't actually give you visibility as to sort of when costs will hit. And we don't yet have, in some cases, an ability to say that they're all probable of recovery or a 100% of them are probable recovery because we don't have historical precedent. So I think that we -- and that was really the driver for how we set up the 2020 core earnings guidance. So you could start to see some of those things more specifically. As we get into the next general rate case, and then you'll see some of that -- that variability dissipate because we will have things included in our revenue requirement as opposed to now where the '18 and '19 costs related with wildfire mitigation are in a one track that gets decided in 2021, the 2020 cost are going to be another track that gets decided after that. So I think we do need to move through and get into the next rate case cycle to have a little bit less variability and a little bit -- a little bit more clarity. But again, that's why we tried to set up the guidance line the way that we did.
Pedro Pizarro:
And Maria, I'll add one other point to this, maybe from a different angle. Some of the variability you've seen here has been because we've been in an unprecedented period of figuring out how to address a very different type of wildfire risk or different levels of higher risk than we understood three years ago. And so a lot of the extraordinary things you've seen our team doing required the use of the [indiscernible] () accounts, etcetera. They've also redefined activities to the utility needs to take on a cost and then that needs to be recovered. I think as we get further maturity through the wildfire mitigation plan process, and another year or two of experience under our belts. I’m hoping that we see that uncertainty ban continue to narrow in terms of understanding. Okay. Here's the -- here's how we now do utility operations in a world of a much higher wild fire risk. And then that's Maria's point translates into more predictability both for us and for investors in terms of the kinds of investments and cost recovery items that get built into rate cases and other proceedings. So they used the lingo a little bit moving from the new normal is actually having a normalized and stabilized.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. And then I have one other question, which is the settlement, the 360 that you're paying in municipals. Just curious, what is that as a percent of what the original request, or what the original damages and claims they filed were?
Maria Rigatti:
That's about a third of what they -- the original hope or expectation, I guess.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. So they filed for a little over a $1 billion roughly and settled in 360.
Maria Rigatti:
Yup. Got it.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Okay, thank you. Much appreciated.
Pedro Pizarro:
Thanks, Michael.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Jonathan Arnold with Vertical Research. Your line is now open.
Pedro Pizarro:
Jonathan, good to have you back in the circuit here.
Jonathan Arnold:
Well, thank you. Good to be back to you. Thank you, Pedro. Just I wonder, I'm not sure you'll be willing to do this, but I'm curious whether you might be -- you could give us any insight into sort of the kinds of things have moved around in the accruals. You said they moved -- big movements. Can you be any more specific just to give us a little bit more sense of the process?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes. Sorry, no. And the reason is, there's a lot of pieces and parts inside there. And from a disclosure perspective, we've disclosed the net amount. But we don't expect that we will be disclosing all the pieces, some parts on ongoing basis. So that's why I think that the guidance has been to just keep it at high level. This won't answer your question, but you can imagine the things that are inside there and I won't -- won't be able to share which ones went up or which ones went down or which ones didn’t move. But this includes that the spreadsheet, if you will, of items that we track include things like, the size of claims, actual claims being filed continue to move around. Additional facts that are being uncovered in the discovery process, it's those sorts of things that are the underlying elements across each of the cases. And then you have to add one more layer of complexity. Remember, it's not just one big set of cases. It's really individual action across all the different events. And so a lot of detail underneath each other. So it's a pretty massive, complex thing. And that's why rather than try and not do a justice, we're just keeping the disclosure to investors at a high level.
Adam Umanoff:
Will we see any change in your sort of general position on your view of your involvement in various ignitions when we read the 10-K?
Pedro Pizarro:
No, there are no new material disclosures regarding information about the events that I can think of.
Maria Rigatti:
The one thing that is a little bit new is, they've gotten through the attorney general holding that comment. But other than that, we didn't -- we felt, I think to summarize the iconic sign we're [indiscernible]. We still believe our client was involved. The other ignition in 2017 fire, we still have the information in the air around that and we'll see the same disclosure we have last quarter.
Pedro Pizarro:
so, no new information that we're offering, but Maria you’re right. Maybe elaborate a little bit on the attorney general, please.
Maria Rigatti:
Yes. So as we got through the process during -- over the course of the year, we understand now that the California attorney general has completed their analysis around Thomas. And there is not -- they're not moving forward with any sort criminal liability charges. And will the evaluation continue.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay, great. Thank you for that. And I just -- I wanted to clarify something on one of the previous questions. There was sort of some suggestion that you'd be tapping the fund. So I just -- I want to make sure I was [technical difficulty] talking about nothing whatsoever to do with the fund, right?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes, we are not going into the funds. We did have a few wildfires in our service territory in 2019. We did take a little bit of a charge for a self-insured retention on those fires primarily. But it's well within our own commercial insurance.
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes, we don't need to actuate the fund, would be really clear about that has been no event that would qualify or require that.
Jonathan Arnold:
Yes. You were just talking about regular recovery [indiscernible]?
Pedro Pizarro:
Right.
Maria Rigatti:
Correct. Yes. Ok.
Pedro Pizarro:
Thanks, Jonathan.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates. Your line is now open.
Paul Patterson:
Hey, good afternoon.
Pedro Pizarro:
Hi, Paul.
Maria Rigatti:
Hi.
Paul Patterson:
So a lot of my questions have been answered. And so I've got just one remaining one, and that is in your 10-K you mentioned a little bit about this, the competitive environment for transmission projects. And we thought the Diablo Canyon Gates project [indiscernible] power. And you mentioned that I think with Mesa that portions of that might be a bit out. I'm just wondering, could you give us a little bit of a flavor as to, I assume that given your ROE guidance and everything that what you have in your plan is for regulated projects. But what are you guys seeing in terms of what happens when sort of for 1000 stuff that’s happening?
Maria Rigatti:
Yes. So, the planning in California around additional transmission that might be required for more solar, more wind, what have you to get to sort of the higher renewable -- the higher green energy standard that hasn't yet started. Until the [indiscernible] does their transition planning, I think it won't be clear yet exactly what projects are going to be required, what's needed. So I think there's a little bit of time still to last. I mean, you're obviously very familiar with the fact that, those projects other than the ones that are already sort of involve our own facilities, they would normally be bid out and people would participate and try and get them on a competitive basis. But right now, I think there's still work to be done to determine what facilities are needed.
Pedro Pizarro:
And again, if it's -- if the facility needed is an upgrade of an existing line, then we have essentially right of first refusal on that, if it's a brand new line, then that goes to the full quarter [indiscernible] process.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. And when [indiscernible] are going to be releasing this updated -- this information about what their plans are with respect to …
Pedro Pizarro:
We don’t believe they started that broad planning process yet. And that's really with them probably in mind or view towards 2030-ish kind of time -- timeframe and actually milestone sale. Sitting here, I don't think we have a timeline to offer.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. Thanks so much.
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes. Thanks, Paul.
Operator:
That was our last question. I will now turn the call back to VP, Sam Ramraj.
Sam Ramraj:
Thank you for joining us today. And if you have any questions, please call us. So this concludes the conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Thank you for joining today's call, and thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at this time.
Operator:
Good afternoon, and welcome to the Edison International Third Quarter 2019 Financial Teleconference. My name is Ted and I will be your operator today. [Operator Instructions]. Today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Sam Ramraj, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Ramraj, you may begin your conference.
Sam Ramraj:
Thank you, Ted. And welcome, everyone. Our speakers today are President and Chief Executive Officer, Pedro Pizarro, and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Maria Rigatti. Also here are other members of the management team. Materials supporting today's call are available at www.edisoninvestor.com. These include our Form 10-Q, prepared remarks from Pedro and Maria and the teleconference presentation. Tomorrow, we will distribute our regular business update presentation. During this call, we will make forward-looking statements about the outlook for Edison International and its subsidiaries. Actual results could differ materially from current expectations. Important factors that could cause different results are set forth in our SEC filings. Please read these carefully. The presentation includes certain outlook assumptions as well as reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure. During the question-and-answer session, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. I will now turn the call over to Pedro.
Pedro Pizarro:
Thank you, Sam, and good afternoon, everyone. Let me start with a sentiment that we are sadly feeling all too often here in California. Our hearts go out to our customers and community members, and our fellow Californians across the rest of our state, who have lost loved ones, homes, and property, have been evacuated, and have otherwise been impacted by devastating wildfires. I will once again dedicate a significant part of my comments to how we are managing wildfire risks after I touch on our financial performance. Today, Edison International reported third quarter core earnings of $1.50 per share, which was $0.06 below the same period last year. The decrease in core earnings was primarily due to higher O&M expense and share count dilution. These were partially offset by higher revenue from FERC as a result of the pending settlement of the 2018 formula rate case. As I have mentioned before, year-over-year comparisons are not particularly meaningful due to the timing of the adoption of the 2018 general rate case final decision. Maria will discuss our financial performance in more detail during her remarks. Since we last spoke to you on our second quarter earnings call, SCE filed its 2021 GRC application in late August, the 2019 California legislative session ended in September, and California's peak wildfire season has begun. Much of the State has experienced "red flag" conditions – high heat, very low humidity, and strong winds – requiring proactive de-energization using public safety power shutoffs, or PSPS. On state legislative matters, a number of wildfire-related bills were enacted into law in addition to AB 1054, that improve California's prevention, mitigation, and response efforts. These bills span a wide range of issues including vegetation management, community resiliency, and CPUC safety regulation, reflecting California's comprehensive approach to wildfire risk prevention and management. At the same time, Edison has been implementing elements of AB 1054. On our last earnings call, we noted that SCE received its initial safety certification from the CPUC. Since then, SCE made our initial wildfire fund contribution of $2.4 billion on September 9th. SCE will contribute approximately $95 million to the fund on January 1 of each year for 10 years. Last week, the CPUC approved continuation of a Department of Water Resources non-bypassable charge, which will be used to fund customer contributions to the wildfire fund. These actions have satisfied several important legislative conditions to establish the statewide wildfire fund created by AB 1054. We are in the peak fire season, and the backdrop for SCE's operational efforts continues to be severe weather conditions. This follows a wet winter that led to a build-up of fuels. Such conditions elevate the wildfire threat in the state's high fire risk areas. Our number one priority continues to be the safety of the public, our customers, employees, and first responders. Since July and increasingly in the last several weeks, we have exercised our PSPS protocols to reduce the possibility that our system will be the cause of an ignition. We recognize that PSPS is a disruptive hardship, and we strive to minimize the impact on our customers and communities. We do not take this action lightly, but it is necessary to protect Californians from catastrophic wildfires. In fact, patrols conducted after PSPS events have found several instances of equipment damage and tree branches contacting power lines which could have ignited a fire. We will continue to harden our system to minimize the need for these safety power shutoffs, but expect to utilize PSPS as we continue to enhance our system against wildfire threats. We have invested over the past several years in sectionalizing many of our distribution circuits in HFRAs using switches and reclosers to increase the number of isolation points. SCE has an average of 4 remotely operated sectionalizing switches for each HFRA circuit. This, along with our work on weather stations, weather modeling, and more granular risk models at a circuit and sub-circuit level, have all enabled us to be more targeted in the application of PSPS. We monitor each threatened circuit so that we can make the ultimate decision to deenergize individual sections – or not – based on a combination of real-time conditions and short-term forecasts. We will continue to invest in more isolation points, further situational awareness, and more advanced computing power to provide even more granular analysis of our HFRAs, which will have the twin benefits of continuing to reduce the number of customers impacted during PSPS events and sharpening our risk-informed deployment of grid-hardening investments. We follow the CPUC's PSPS protocol, which requires investor-owned utilities to notify customers in advance of a potential de-energization. Our PSPS process follows this protocol with 72-hour notifications to California's Office of Emergency Services, or Cal OES, the CPUC, affected county governments, and essential service providers. We then provide 48-hour, 24-hour, and imminent de-energization notifications to customers and communities whenever possible. Unfortunately, there are certain occasions when rapidly changing and volatile weather conditions pose an immediate threat to public safety and do not allow us to provide sufficient advance notification. I want to acknowledge the comments made by Governor Newsom and his concerns that customer impacts, particularly impacts to the state's vulnerable populations, be considered when PSPS events are necessary. We are engaged with the governor's Office, Cal OES and the CPUC on further improvements to the PSPS process, with the goal of limiting impacts to customers and providing effective, timely notifications. SCE remains focused on implementing the mitigation activities outlined in its Wildfire Mitigation Plan and the Grid Safety and Resiliency Program. We continue to improve our situational awareness through the deployment of approximately 470 weather stations to monitor temperature, wind speeds, and humidity levels, and more than 130 high-definition cameras to more quickly detect fire ignitions. Our sophisticated weather modeling and fire potential forecasting capabilities are also advancing to better assess fire threat. These, along with our prior work to sectionalize distribution circuits, have enabled us to limit the scope of de-energizations to minimize the number of customers affected. Our work also includes having installed approximately 300 circuit miles of covered conductor, and fast acting fuses at more than 10,000 new locations. We understand the importance of hardening our grid today and in the future as electrification of the economy continues and customers rely even more on the grid. A number of recent wildfires in Southern California have garnered attention and, while evaluations are continuing, I would like to briefly comment on a few of these fires. First, we filed an Electric Safety Incident Report, or ESIR, related to the Saddle Ridge fire. We filed this in an abundance of caution because SCE had an event on its system close in time to the start of the fire. We will file a more detailed report – a 315 report – next week that will also be posted to our investor website. We did not file an ESIR related to the Tick fire. Fire authorities have identified an incident location, but not yet a point of origin. An SCE distribution line near the incident location had been de-energized several hours prior to the reported start of the fire. SCE's PSPS protocols did not trigger de-energization of an SCE transmission line about a quarter mile from the incident location, and this line did not register any events prior to the reported start of the fire. Finally, yesterday, a fire began in the vicinity of the Getty Museum in Los Angeles. Local media has reported that fire authorities have identified a point of origin. This is not an official determination by the Los Angeles Fire Department, but this is in the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power's service territory and the closest SCE facilities are over 3 miles away. I would like to give an update on the Woolsey Fire. Parties to the Woolsey litigation, including SCE, received a non-final redacted draft of an investigation report from the Ventura County Fire Department stating that electrical equipment owned and operated by SCE was the cause of the Woolsey Fire. The report is subject to the court's protective order and, other than what we are disclosing to you today, we are not authorized to release the report, or its contents, to the public at this time. Absent additional evidence, SCE believes it is likely that its equipment was associated with the ignition of the Woolsey Fire. Final determination of legal causation and liability would only be made during lengthy and complex litigation. You will recall that in the fourth quarter of 2018, we accrued an after-tax charge to earnings of $1.8 billion in connection with the 2017 and 2018 wildfire and mudslide events. This corresponds to the lower end of the reasonably estimated range of expected potential losses. We have determined that no change to the reserve is needed at this time, although it is subject to change as additional information becomes available. EIX and SCE are also aware of separate ongoing investigations of the Thomas Fire and the Woolsey Fire by the California Attorney General's Office for the purpose of determining whether any criminal violations have occurred. SCE is not aware of any basis for felony liability with regard to these fires. Moving now to SCE's next GRC, the application we filed on August 30th for the three-year period 2021 to 2023 requests a test-year revenue requirement of $7.6 billion, an increase of approximately 13% above presently authorized rates. We do not take the size of this request lightly, following a three-decade period over which SCE kept its average rate growth below local inflation. This funding request strikes a balance across SCE's core work of improving the reliability and security of electric service, helping California meet its clean energy goals, and reducing the risk of catastrophic wildfires. Regarding the 2020 Cost of Capital Application, SCE currently expects a proposed decision in late November. Maria will discuss more on SCE's GRC and cost of capital filings later in her remarks. Turning briefly to Edison Energy and our outlook for this business, two years ago, we set targets for a breakeven earnings run rate by the end of this year, as well as customer capture goals. The business has succeeded in capturing sales while managing costs and will be close to its year-end breakeven target. Edison Energy has a number of high-quality clients, including 12 of the Fortune 50, several of whom have used its broader managed portfolio solutions to reduce the client's overall energy risk, although not as many clients as we originally targeted. However, we continue to see strong and growing client interest, and we are gaining insights from our work for these customers that we see as increasingly relevant to our clean energy, electrification and sustainability efforts, and that will help inform our core strategies. While we do not anticipate making significant investments in Edison Energy, we will be providing limited support for this business to fund growth in key areas such as technology, renewables, and fleet and building electrification. We expect the ongoing financial impact of this business to be immaterial for the foreseeable future. The business has a strong leadership team within it, requiring very limited focus from the EIX holding company team. Turning back to California, it is clear that our state is experiencing more extreme weather days, accompanied by a significant risk of PSPS events and wildfires, and that is due to a large degree to climate change. While SCE is primarily focused on its near-term actions to keep our customers and communities safe, we must also engage with state policymakers on needed longer-term solutions. Adaptation to climate change must begin in earnest, which SCE is doing in part with our grid hardening, situational awareness and operational changes, but we must act on longer-term solutions as well. California has an urgent need for immediate actions to mitigate further climate change damage. The state has established clear greenhouse gas reduction targets, but much detail and hard work remain needed to ensure successful implementation. To support California's efforts, SCE released our Clean Power and Electrification Pathway white paper two years ago, which focused on the clean energy transition to 2030. We have continued this important work with a longer-term view to 2045, and SCE will release soon a new white paper, which we call Pathway 2045, outlining our blueprint for how California can meet its ambitious goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2045. Pathway 2045 analyzes the implications of California's long-term goal of achieving carbon neutrality through three pillars. These include deep decarbonization of the electric sector; significant electrification of transportation and buildings, along with a continued focus on energy efficiency; and use of low carbon fuels for sectors that are hard to electrify. We believe that the changes required across California's economy will be profound. Three quarters of light-duty vehicles, two-thirds of medium-duty vehicles and one-third of heavy-duty vehicles will need to be electric by 2045. In addition, nearly 70% of building, space and water heating will need to be electric by 2045. This greater reliance on electricity will result in a 60% increase in grid-served electricity load and will require approximately 110 gigawatts of additional clean generation and storage by 2045. Significant grid investment will be required to integrate this new renewable generation and storage capacity, and serve the substantial load growth associated with transportation and building electrification. While electricity bills will increase over time, the overall cost across all types of energy for an average household should decrease by one-third by 2045, due to the inherently greater efficiency of electric technologies over fossil fuel combustion machines. The increased dependence on electricity underscores the need for the state to ensure the grid is resilient and its utilities are financially healthy. While the state's goals and, therefore, our approach look 25 years in the future, we intend for our paper to support near-term actions in policy areas including clean power supply, reliable and resilient systems, customer technology adoption, technology development, and affordability. In closing, I would like to reiterate that we continue to make progress on our long-term strategy, while at the same time addressing the immediate wildfire challenge. We will move forward with our vision for a sustainable and clean energy future, transportation electrification and digital transformation, while continuing to focus on operational excellence and maintaining the recent, hard-earned gains we have achieved in reliability and customer satisfaction. With that, let me turn it over to Maria for her financial report.
Maria Rigatti:
Thank you, Pedro. And good afternoon, everyone. My comments today will cover third quarter results for 2019 compared to the same period a year ago, plus comments on our 2021 general rate case and other financial updates for SCE and EIX. As we have said, year-over-year comparisons are less meaningful given the timing of the 2018 GRC decision. Please turn to page 3. For the third quarter 2019, Edison International reported core earnings of $1.50 per share, which was $0.06 lower than the same period last year. From the table on the right-hand side, you will see that SCE had a core EPS variance of negative $0.03 year-over-year. This was primarily due to a negative impact of $0.10 from dilution from the equity offering in July 2019. This was partially offset by $0.07 of higher EPS from SCE core activities. There are a few items that accounted for the majority of this impact. Higher revenues had a positive variance of $0.12. This was primarily driven by $0.10 of higher FERC revenues related to the settlement of SCE's 2018 formula rate proceeding. The settlement, which is pending approval, results in an all-in ROE of 11.2%. Other FERC revenues were $0.04 higher due to higher operating expenses under the FERC formula rate mechanism. CPUC revenues had a negative impact of $0.02 which was largely due to an increase in flow-through tax benefits, which were partially offset by higher GRC revenue. Higher O&M expenses impacted year-over-year EPS by negative $0.21 and were largely driven by higher wildfire mitigation expenses. O&M costs related to wildfire mitigation in high fire risk areas are being tracked in memo accounts and deferred, pending completion of various regulatory proceedings. We are also experiencing higher costs due to contractor scarcity and an increased inspection and preventative maintenance program in areas adjacent to designated high fire risk areas. We will continue to track the cost impacts to support recovery requests in the future, although we have not established a regulatory asset for certain of these costs. Lower income taxes of $0.19 primarily reflect benefits that are passed back to customers and are offset in revenues, as I mentioned. Higher net financing costs due to increased borrowings had a negative EPS impact of $0.04. For the quarter, EIX Parent and Other had a negative $.03 core earnings variance. This was mainly due to the impact of $0.05 from higher interest expense related to increased borrowings, partially offset by better operating performance at Edison Energy. Following our election to join the Wildfire Fund, we analyzed the appropriate accounting treatment for our initial and subsequent annual contributions. As we've discussed in the past, there are multiple aspects of AB 1054 that provide support and value. These include the changes to the application of the prudency and cost recovery standards, as well as access to the fund for amounts above commercial insurance and the liability cap. Although there is no specific authoritative guidance on how to account for this, our conclusion is that contributions will be treated in a manner similar to pre-paid insurance. This means that we have recorded an asset to reflect the initial and ongoing contributions to the fund and we will expense it ratably over the course of an estimated fund life. Based on a number of assumptions, including recent wildfire activity, we estimate the life to be 10 years. We will periodically assess that 10-year life based on future utilization of the fund, as well as the impact of the extensive wildfire mitigation activity that is currently underway. Since our wildfire fund contributions relate to a change in law and are not tied to our ongoing operational decisions, we are classifying this expense as a non-core item. As a result, during the quarter, SCE's non-core earnings were impacted by $48 million after tax, or $0.16 per share, for amortization of SCE's contributions to the wildfire fund. Please turn to page 4. For the first nine months of the year, Edison International core earnings per share increased $0.52 to $3.73 per share. This includes an increase of $0.54 in core earnings at SCE, offset by a decrease of $0.02 at EIX Parent and Other. SCE's year-to-date earnings analysis is largely consistent with third quarter results, except for two items which had an impact in the second quarter. You will recall that when the 2018 GRC final decision was received, SCE recorded the retroactive 2018 impact of $0. 20. Further, higher 2019 revenues had a positive impact of $0.55, which includes $0.32 resulting from the GRC decision and $0.13 at FERC from higher operating expenses and rate base. Before we turn to a discussion of our 2021 general rate case, capital spending and rate base, I'd like to note two pending applications seeking cost recovery of wildfire-related expenses. The Catastrophic Event Memo Account application seeks cost recovery of $139 million for system restoration following declared emergencies related to the 2017 wildfires and 2017 and 2018 drought impacts. The Wildfire Expense Memo Account application seeks recovery of approximately $505 million for incremental wildfire insurance costs covering the period April 2018 to July 2020. We also are waiting for CPUC approval of the Grid Safety and Resiliency Program settlement that was filed on July 31st to establish a capital and cost recovery framework for the 2018 to 2020 wildfire risk improvements. Please turn to page 5. On August 30th, SCE filed its 2021 general rate case application for the three-year period 2021 through 2023. The critical drivers of SCE's 2021 GRC request include the infrastructure and programs necessary to implement California's ambitious public policy goals, including wildfire mitigation, de-carbonization of the economy through electrification and integration of distributed energy resources across a rapidly modernizing grid. We will do this while continuing to provide safe, reliable, and affordable service to our customers. We acknowledge that the revenue requirement increase in the 2021 GRC application is larger than it has been in the past. This is due in large part to the pressing need for SCE to undertake extraordinary measures to reduce wildfire risk. The proposed increase is also driven by spending previously authorized in SCE's 2018 GRC and placed into service in 2019 and 2020, and SCE's 2021 GRC depreciation study proposal. SCE is requesting the CPUC authorize the test year 2021 revenue requirement of $7.601 billion. This is an increase of $1.155 billion over the 2020 revenue requirement authorized in the 2018 GRC, as that isn't updated for anticipated post-test-year ratemaking changes. This represents a 12.7% increase over presently authorized 2020 total rates. SCE's 2021 GRC request also includes proposed revenue requirement increases of $400 million in 2022 and $531 million in 2023. SCE is requesting that the CPUC issue a final decision by the end of 2020. A pre-hearing conference for the GRC proceeding is scheduled for tomorrow. A scoping memo, including a schedule for the proceeding, will be issued after that. On page 6, SCE is forecasting a $23.8 billion to $25.6 billion total capital program from 2019 through 2023. This includes CPUC jurisdictional GRC capital expenditures, certain non-GRC CPUC capital spending and FERC capital spending. Please turn to page 7 for SCE's rate base forecast. At the capital expenditure levels requested in the 2021 GRC, total weighted-average CPUC and FERC jurisdictional rate base will increase to $40.8 billion by 2023. This represents a six-year compound annual growth rate of 7.7%. The low end of the range of 6.9% reflects a 10% reduction in the 2021 through 2023 total capital forecast, based on management judgement incorporating historical experience of previously authorized amounts, potential for permitting delays and other operational considerations. For 2020, the low end of the range reflects a 10% reduction applied to FERC capital spending and non-GRC programs. The rate base forecast excludes approximately $1.6 billion of wildfire risk mitigation capital spend that will not earn an equity return as detailed in AB 1054. Page 8 highlights total wildfire related capital spend between 2019 and 2023. On page 9, you will see our key financial assumptions and EIX core EPS guidance for 2019. Our revised EPS guidance range for 2019 is $4.70 to $4.90 per share with a midpoint of $4.80. This is $0.09 higher than our previous midpoint guidance of $4.71. The change in guidance is largely driven by the 2018 FERC settlement, offset by increased share dilution. You may recall that, in our second quarter guidance, we made some simplifying assumptions regarding the timing of the various elements of the 2019 financing plan and we have now adjusted those assumptions to incorporate the actual debt and equity issuances during the third quarter. There are a few highlights on this page to point out. The pending settlement of SCE's 2018 FERC formula rate proceeding has a positive EPS impact of $0.15 in 2019. There are two components to this. The prior year true-up is $0.09 of the $0.15 and is called out in the center of the chart. The balance, or $0.06 cents, that relates to 2019, is included in the bar that captures rate base earnings for the current year. For EIX Parent and Other, we expect an earnings drag of $0.30 to $0.35 per share. This includes approximately $0.01 per share per month related to EIX operating expenses. Our guidance includes Edison Energy achieving close to its year-end breakeven earnings run rate target as Pedro noted. Additionally, we expect a total of $0.24 of EPS dilution from the 2019 financing plan which I mentioned previously. Let me provide an update on our 2019 FERC formula rate case which we filed in April of this year. In September, SCE modified its request with the FERC for its 2019 transmission rate case to reflect a reduction in the base ROE from 17.12% to 11.97%. This reflects a reduction in our estimate of wildfire risk following the passage of AB 1054, from 600 basis points to 85 basis points. This reduction is consistent with a similar decrease filed in our CPUC Cost of Capital proceeding. The settlement effectively modifies our base ROE request, but no other aspect of the proceeding is impacted. We are still in settlement discussions. I would now like to give you an update on our 2019 financing plan. On our last earnings call, we outlined EIX's 2019 equity and debt needs. Overall, the plan included $1 billion of holding company debt and $1.5 billion of common equity to fund SCE's requirement related to the requested increase in the CPUC-authorized equity layer and additional growth investment at the utility. We identified an additional $1.2 billion equity need which would be contributed to SCE to finance 50% of its initial contribution to the wildfire fund established by AB 1054. SCE planned on issuing operating company debt to finance the remaining 50% of the initial contribution. Through the end of the third quarter, we completed a substantial portion of this plan. We raised $2.2 billion in EIX equity through the issuance of 32.2 million shares in July, relative to a total identified need of $2.7 billion. We will opportunistically use our ATM program to supplement our internal equity programs over the rest of the year. Under the holding company debt financing plan, we issued $600 million of the planned $1 billion debt need. We plan to issue the remaining $400 million in the fourth quarter and will continue to assess opportunities given the low interest rate environment. As we look into funding needs beyond 2019 to support SCE's operations, we remain focused on a balanced financing approach that maintains a healthy balance sheet and promotes investment grade ratings at both SCE and EIX. Our balanced approach provides us the flexibility to use a combination of debt and equity. We believe this is the most effective way to support operations and capital investments in the near future as we resolve the business risks driven by the wildfire challenges we face. That concludes our remarks.
Sam Ramraj:
Ted, please open the call for questions. As a reminder, we request you to limit yourself to one question and one follow-up, so that everyone in line has the opportunity to ask questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. The first question in the queue is from Greg Gordon with Evercore ISI. Your line is now open.
Pedro Pizarro:
Hello, Greg.
Gregory Gordon:
Thanks. Good afternoon and best of luck to you and the communities you serve in getting through the fire season without any further hardship.
Pedro Pizarro:
Thank you, Greg.
Maria Rigatti:
Thanks, Greg.
Gregory Gordon:
Can you remind us where we stand in terms of your position on the cause or causes or ignition points and disputes around ignition points as it relates to the Thomas Fire, please?
Maria Rigatti:
Sure. Greg. If you recall, it's actually [indiscernible] CAL FIRE have issued a report on that fire. At one point, there's two ignition points they've identified as have we. The Koenigstein Road point is the ignition point that we had said in the third quarter. Our equipment was involved in that, and the report that came out from the fire authorities is consistent with that position. In the second report, which was a second ignition point, they've also identified or have alleged that our equipment was involved in that second ignition point. We do not agree with that. There is publicly available radar evidence that shows smoke at least 10 minutes or 12 minutes before there were any anomalies on our system, and so that's an ongoing point of – or discrepancy between our position and theirs.
Pedro Pizarro:
And, Greg, and I might just add, and I think we pointed this out in the Q, no metal fragments were found in the investigation report. So, some of the evidence you would typically look for just seems to be absent. There is no appeals process or anything like that for CAL FIRE reports, and so really ultimate liability will be sorted out through the litigation process.
Gregory Gordon:
Right. And then, now that we're – I know you gave us the information that you're able to on the Woolsey Fire. Can you just update us on the process for going through settlement or – litigation and/or potential settlement, so that we can get a sense of whether the charge that you have taken will wind up being a reasonable estimate of potential liability. What's the sort of critical path to resolution of this?
Pedro Pizarro:
So, let me give you a really broad-brush answer and our General Counsel could always fill in more details on process as needed, although there might be more detail than you want. But I think the headline on this, it's a very complex process. Many plaintiffs, many individual lawsuits, different classes of plaintiffs across subrogation, individual parties, governmental entities, et cetera. The cases have been consolidated under a judge, and there is a process for the formal court steps around discovery and the initial handling of what are called bellwether cases that start to lay out the facts of the case. In parallel, there is always the possibility for discussions among parties across all these different classes of plaintiffs for potentially settlement sort of approaches. We're not in a position today to comment on those, but that is certainly a pathway that you've seen happen in a number of other cases. As we proceed with the case, we'll continue to do checkpoints on what information are we getting, is there additional discovery, is there other information that changes our view on the low end of the estimable range and that could lead to adjustments to the reserve we've taken already. As I noted, with the redacted reports that we received that have been sealed on Woolsey in particular, after viewing what we could view – obviously, we couldn't view the redacted parts – but there was nothing that we saw there that led us to determine that we needed to make a change to the reserve at this point. Greg, is that enough or do you need more detail on process steps, that kind of thing?
Gregory Gordon:
Yeah. I think investors, if you could, would just like to know – like, remind us what the timing is if we go down the litigation path to getting a resolution in lieu of a settlement.
Pedro Pizarro:
So, Adam, can give you some – Adam Umanoff, our General Counsel, can give you some dates in terms of dates set by the court for the litigation process. I don't think that we can give you anything concrete in terms of the possibility of what timing will be for settlement, but, Adam, let me turn it to you.
Adam Umanoff:
Thanks, Pedro. In Woolsey, the court has set a July 2020 date for what's known as a bellwether trial. And these are sample jury trials that are conducted to see how the jurors will respond to evidence and the arguments in the case. So, that obviously is months from now. Between now and then, we continue to be engaged in discovery, both us and the plaintiffs. As far as settlement is concerned, as Pedro noted, we really can't comment on prospects. But in complex litigation like this, it's not uncommon, of course, for parties to enter into settlement negotiations.
Gregory Gordon:
Got you. Thank you. A lot more questions, but other people I'm sure behind me. So, thank you. I'll hop off. Bye.
Pedro Pizarro:
Okay. Thanks a lot, Greg.
Operator:
Next question is from Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research. Your line is now open.
Pedro Pizarro:
Hello, Steve.
Steven Fleishman:
Hi. Just one other question on Woolsey. Were there any violations found in the report at least that's un-redacted?
Pedro Pizarro:
We can't comment on what's in the report beyond what we said already because of the court seal on it. So, sorry, we just can't give any more insight. However, we continue to state, as I did in my script remarks, that we see no basis for felony liability.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay. And, I guess to the degree you found something in there, you just can't comment, in theory, you could have changed your reserve based on it?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yeah. That's correct, Steve. Let me put it maybe more affirmatively. If we had seen something that we thought was a significant, compelling information that we didn't have before and that we thought changed the low end of the estimable range, we would have done that.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay. And then, just on managing your system through these difficult periods, you mentioned some of the things you've done to be able to more surgically deal with power shutoffs. The one question I have is that it appears, possibly in Saddleridge and also in Kincade up north, that the issue came from a transmission line, not a distribution line. So, could you maybe talk a little bit about just the difficulty of managing this process with transmission lines?
Pedro Pizarro:
Sure. Let me start by saying that we managed this for both transmission and distribution lines. I think the history we've seen of ignitions in the past is that the vast majority of ignitions, connected to utility equipment, have been on the distribution system. In terms of the process we follow, the overall process, I think, is similar. We have a mapping of our high fire risk areas. We have risk models around the potential for impacts in those areas. We have a mapping of our distribution and transmission circuits and then we have criteria around things like wind speed and humidity and fuel content, right? How much vegetation is around the ground that could turn into fuel, for example. So, those all form baseline criteria. As we then apply those to distribution versus transmission equipment, the difference is that typically transmission towers and that equipment is just a lot more robust, typically has broader clearances around it, and so you will typically see, for example, higher wind speed thresholds applied to transmission lines than you will see to distribution line just because there is a lot more mass to move up there and it's just a lot more robust in that sense. Beyond that, obviously, if you take out a transmission section through PSPS, there is a likelihood that that will have a greater impact in terms of number of customers that are de-energized. Fortunately, I think with our system and with our topology, the area that we serve, we have seen much more PSPS activity on the distribution system than transmission, although we've seen some on transmission. And then, with the distribution system, as I mentioned in my earlier remarks, one of the benefits there is that because we had been investing for a few years now in dividing up circuits, adding switches and reclosers to sectionalize them – I think I mentioned an average of four isolation points per circuit in our HFRA, or high fire risk areas – that allows us to more finely tune what portions could be energized as we get closer to the event. So, rather than just do a broad-brush of the distribution circuit level, we can actually – if we determine that it's safe to leave part A of a circuit up, but we need to take parts B through D off, then we'll do that. The final thing I'll mention that – maybe a little more detail than I said in my remarks, when we set our forecast, so I mentioned the 72-hour notification to agencies, followed by the 48-hour notification to customers, et cetera, that's all based on forecast. We do not de-energize based on that 48-hour forecast, right, because if we did that, I think there will be a much broader set of customers likely who will be de-energized. We continue to monitor conditions through our telemetry, our instruments as well as observations on the ground, all the way down to the moment when we de-energize and that allows us to be a little more tailored in our ability to manage the risks here. If we see a need to de-energize, you can be fully confident that we will de-energize. But if we see that there isn't a need, then it's good when we can relieve those customers of that impact.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay. Thank you very much. I'll let other people ask questions. Appreciate it.
Operator:
Next question is from Praful Mehta. Your line is now open. From Citigroup.
Pedro Pizarro:
Hi, Praful.
Praful Mehta:
Hi, Pedro. Again, hope everybody is coming through this relatively well, given it's a tough season. But just wanted to touch first on the charge itself, the $1.8 billion charge. So, that is a combination to confirm both of the Woolsey and the Thomas, correct?
Pedro Pizarro:
I think the words I used were 2017 and 2018 fires, which is Woolsey and Thomas as well as the mud slides.
Praful Mehta:
I got you. Okay. So, now just stepping back to more big picture question, given what's happening right now in California and the fact that PSPS itself isn't working as well as people had hoped, at least some had hoped, do you think AB 1054 right now works? Is it sufficient? Is the wildfire fund sufficient? Or do you think more needs to be done on the legislative side or the operational side to kind of deal with all of this that's happening right now in California?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yeah. That's a great question. I think my snap answer with a little more detail to come, as usual for me, is that the AB 1054 framework is a solid framework, right? I mentioned in a prior call, it probably doesn't have everything we would have desired, but it was a compromise and, on balance, we think it was a good workable compromise. So, our focus now is primarily on the implementation of AB 1054, a lot of pieces that have to fall into place. As I mentioned in my remarks, we've seen a number of those already take place that have activated the wildfire fund. But there's more work ahead, including fully staffing out the wildfire safety division and wildfire advisory board and some of the other bodies that were specified in AB 1054. In terms of the size of the fund, I think investors and analysts and we have all identified all along that one of the features of the fund or the legislation was it did not set up a replenishment mechanism. And I know that's been a big focus for everyone. Assuming the PG&E is able to successfully emerge from bankruptcy by June 30th of next year, the size of the fund will be $21 billion, which the analysis from some of the state entities involved with the legislation suggested that that had something like a 94% confidence of surviving for a 10-year period. And in kind of rough numbers, it would cover something like $45 billion worth of gross damages. So, that means that there is durability for some period which – but if you go by that analysis, then probabilistically speaking, the high confidence that would last for at least 10 years, and then that would provide time for all of us to continue to harden our systems. Clearly, if there were catastrophic fires that depleted the fund, then I think the state would need to do more work legislatively to figure out how to replenish the fund. Beyond that, I think we've acknowledged there might be additional modifications needed to AB 1054. We don't have any to point out at this point. Just going to leave that open as a possibility as we get deeper into implementation steps and how well the mechanics work.
Praful Mehta:
That's super helpful. Thanks for that, Pedro. And then, just a quick follow-up on the answer, which is PG&E's exit in time and its participation in the fund, obviously, now is a little bit at risk given everything that's happening from a wildfire and the bankruptcy process perspective.
Pedro Pizarro:
Right.
Praful Mehta:
So, from your view, if PG&E wasn't able to exit in time and not able to participate in the fund, does that worry you in terms of the size of the fund or do you think it is still a sustainable solution?
Pedro Pizarro:
I think the broad-brush answer is that if PG&E were not to participate, then, clearly, the fund would not have that portion of the contributions, but it also would not have the risk of a 70,000 square mile utility with a lot of high fire risk territory. So, I'm not sure I have enough of a crystal ball to tell you whether the math ends up being a little positive or a little negative on that, but I think it's important to acknowledge that with the lack of participation also comes decrease amount of risk being covered by the fund.
Praful Mehta:
All right. Well, thank you so much. I'll go back in queue.
Pedro Pizarro:
You bet, Praful.
Operator:
Next question is from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America. Your line is now open.
Pedro Pizarro:
Hi, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey. Good afternoon. Hope everyone is hanging in there. Just wanted to follow-up a little bit on some of the questions or rather some of the commentary from the Governor's office around wildfire mitigation efforts. Obviously, you guys are doing a lot already. Sounds as if the state is really willing to kick it up in terms of efforts and commitment. How do you think about further acceleration in both OpEx and CapEx and infrastructure and especially some of the technology in undergrounding, specifically, that the Governor has mentioned off late?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yeah. There's a lot there. But I'll start by saying that, as you heard from both Maria and my remarks, we're doing a lot. We're doing a lot right now in terms of our hardening. We've also proposed a lot, and that in part is driving the size of the general rate case request that SCE submitted. We also continue to learn all along here, right? And so, I would expect that, a year from now, two years from now, three years from now, there will be new ideas that arise that might allow us to either accelerate what tools we're using or, more importantly, accelerate the pace of risk reduction as we do both capital investment and operational measures. Picking one part of your question maybe a little more finely, on PSPS and the governor's comments, this is a tough thing for everybody, right? And you have particularly Northern California, such large swaths of customers being de-energized given the conditions up there and the ability of the system in PG&E's territory, that it's tough for customers to work through that. And I think government officials are sorting through the risk balance that would benefit versus – benefit versus costs and impacts of PSPS. For our part, one of the things we've really stressed is making sure that we have continued to work on our protocols and invest in training our incident management teams. So, we have a very consistent application of the process, point one. And as you heard in my detailed remarks, our ability to be more granular at how we assess the potential scope of PSPS, all the way through to, in real-time, who really needs to be de-energized and who doesn't, that's allowed us to be a bit more targeted with that. Again, make no mistake, if we think that we need to de-energize the circuit for public safety, we will. So, this is not about avoiding public backlash, but it's about only impacting customers who really need to be impacted. I do expect that, through our discussions with the Governor's office, with Cal OES, with the CPUC, with the new proceeding that the CPUC announced a day or two ago, we will continue to see continuous improvement in learning on how we apply PSPS and some of the other measures. Did I get everything in your question or did I miss some important part, Julien?
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
No, no, no. That's good enough. Thank you. And then separately, if I could quickly ask, and I just want to kind of broadly affirm this concept, right, now that we have a 20% criteria over three years in terms of eligibility to participate in this fund, I just want to be extra clear about dividend confidence here, right? Because we've had a few seasons already where there has been an open question when you affirm your dividend, there has been some pause in the investment community. I just want to be extra clear-cut with respect to knowing what the downside is today, if you will, in terms of what the deductible is into this fund that, at least as best you see it, to the extent which you were to trigger that threshold, certainly not thus far, but to the extent prospectively, just confidence in being able to continue to pay out the dividend at that point. And maybe that's too much of a statement, but I'm curious how you would take a stab at answering that?
Pedro Pizarro:
Sure. Thanks, Julien. Let me answer this way. Maria may have more to add here. First, just to make sure everybody's level set. AB 1054 was very clear about limiting our liability over a three-year period to 20% of their T&D equity rate base. So, for us, it's around $2.6 billion or so. And so, we have high confidence that that – the law reads very clearly and they will be implemented by the state, so that's that. And by the way, just remind you that that is attaching above insurance levels. The wildfire fund attaches above our commercial insurance levels, and so we continue to use commercial insurance as the first layer in the event of having unfortunate wildfires. Beyond that, we continue to work hard to have a strong balance sheet. Frankly, the success of our equity raise earlier this year and our financing activities that Maria covered are all meant to continue to re-strengthen our balance sheet over time. I can't comment sitting here about future dividends. We always say we never get ahead of our ski tips, but I think we've communicated to investors our overall commitment over the long run to – we understand the role that dividends play for utility equity investors/shareholders, and I think maintaining a strengthened balance sheet is a way to give us the flexibility to weather any other issues that we may have with wildfires or other capital needs. Maria, would you add to that or…?
Maria Rigatti:
Julien, I'd just say, you know the dividends here in California, in addition to the retained earnings test, it's an ability – or likely to meet obligations as they come due after paying the dividend. And I think Pedro is exactly right. Our work…
Pedro Pizarro:
She doesn't often say that, by the way. I love this one.
Maria Rigatti:
Our ability to maintain a strong balance sheet has helped us in the past to maintain our dividend. We don't get ahead of the board on this, but certainly that strength is something that allows us to continue to say that our dividend payout policy and 45% to 55% payout ratio is one that we know is important to investors and we're keeping that front and center.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Excellent. Thank you, guys.
Pedro Pizarro:
Thanks, Julien.
Operator:
Next question is from Ali Agha with SunTrust. Your line is now open.
Pedro Pizarro:
Hello, Ali.
Ali Agha:
Hey. Good afternoon. First question, Pedro, Maria, just again, bigger picture, just on the fire stuff, to be very clear, so far as we know, both for the Thomas, Woolsey fires, there's been no allegation of any violation by Edison. And as a result, is it fair to say that that does put you in a position for cost recovery whenever we reach that stage? Is that clear?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yeah. Let me parse it very precisely because this stuff is important. As I recall, these fire investigation reports, the ones you've seen in public typically will have a list of potential section of code that could involve violations, that kind of thing, right? But I think it's fairly standard that they said less in the reports. We've also acknowledged that – our understanding that the Attorney General's Office [indiscernible] for the investigations in both of those fires, Thomas and Woolsey. But as we look at the facts, we continue to see no basis for criminal felony liability. And so, that's not a statement we take lightly and we just don't see a basis for that. The fine parsing I make is that there is a difference between – certainly, there is the space of criminal violations, the space of determining legal liability and the space of PUC's determination of prudency. They're related, but they're not the same. We continue to do our investigations on both of the fires. I don't think we've commented on prudency yet. We have commented on the fact that, prior to AB 1054, there is some question about the – or uncertainty about CPUC determination of prudency as we saw in the San Diego Gas & Electric case. And so, that's why when we took the $1.8 billion net charge, we did assume recovery from FERC for the FERC jurisdictional portion, but we did not assume recoveries from the CPUC. That's not to say that we have a basis to say we were imprudent or we were not, we haven't commented on that, we're still doing the homework on that, but it was more about the fact pattern that we saw in the San Diego case up until the point where AB 1054, importantly, reformed the cost recovery standard. And frankly, I know there's been a lot of focus on the wildfire fund and the liability cap, but, in our view, that redefinition of what prudency is and how the PUC needs to look at that in the context of cost recovery is a very important part of AB 1054.
Ali Agha:
Yeah. And in that context, given the kind of reaction your stock took when the recent fire season has started, again, are you confident given the prudency definition and other terms in AB 1054 that knowing what you know about the fire season so far that, on a going forward basis, certainly for the 19 fires, you're not seeing really any big financial implications for your company?
Pedro Pizarro:
Again, let me answer it this way, be very thoughtful here. We have not put up on our own any estimates of what the damages might be for the 19 events. I think, as you look through at the overall scale of that and you compare it to our $1 billion net of commercial insurance, $1.2 billion minus around a couple of hundred million of deductibles and co-insurance, certainly, it seems that the scale of the insurance programs we have appears to be larger than the scale of the events we have seen in our area. And so, that's what we see at this point.
Ali Agha:
Got you. And one unrelated point, just to be clear. Maria, you talked about the need potentially for both equity and debt funding as you're looking at your 2021 through 2023 cycle of CapEx. Given that there should be some equity presumably there, the old notion that you would lay for us that, 'hey, rate base CAGR is a good proxy for EPS CAGR,' is that no longer to the case? We should assume some dilution between rate base CAGR and EPS CAGR going forward?
Maria Rigatti:
Maybe I'll focus on the first part of your question, first. We do see, in the near term, a need to make sure that our balance sheet is as resilient as possible. In the near term, as we work through some of these wildfire issues because, as you know, I think the rating agencies have responded well to AB 1054, but I'm sure they are still looking at implementation questions and speed and et cetera. So, it's not always going to be just purely a metrics issue for us. And so, that's why we have the philosophy that we put forward for everyone that we're going to take a balanced approach, which means the combination of debt and equity. I think we're always going to be trying to manage that, Ali, as we understand sort of the impacts of doing that. On the one hand, keeping the balance sheet strong; on the other hand, kind of maybe creating a little bit more of a disconnect for folks. But we're going to keep all that in mind as we make our decisions and we'll have more on the financing plan as we go into next year.
Ali Agha:
Thank you.
Pedro Pizarro:
Okay. Thanks a lot, Ali.
Operator:
That was the last question. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Sam Ramraj.
Sam Ramraj:
Thank you, everyone, for joining us today and please call us if you have any follow-up questions. This concludes the conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good afternoon, and welcome to the Edison International Second Quarter 2019 Financial Teleconference. My name is Dustin, and I will be your operator today. [Operator Instructions]. Today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Sam Ramraj, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Ramraj, you may begin your conference.
Sam Ramraj:
Thank you, Dustin, and welcome, everyone. Our speakers today are President and Chief Executive Officer, Pedro Pizarro; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Maria Rigatti. Also here are other members of the management team. Materials supporting today's call are available at www.edisoninvestor.com. These include our Form 10-Q, prepared remarks from Pedro and Maria and the teleconference presentation. Tomorrow, we will distribute our regular business update presentation. During this call, we will make forward-looking statements about the outlook for Edison International and its subsidiaries. Actual results could differ materially from current expectations. Important factors that could cause different results are set forth in our SEC filings. Please read these carefully. The presentation includes certain outlook assumptions as well as reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure. [Operator Instructions]. I will now turn the call over to Pedro.
Pedro Pizarro:
Well, thank you, Sam. I would like to start by reflecting on the passing of SCE President Ron Nichols on June 6 after bravely battling gastric cancer. All of us lost a great leader and a great friend. Thanks to all of our investors and stakeholders who joined us and reached out in mourning his passing and celebrating Ron's life. So turning to the business at hand. Second quarter core earnings were $1.58 per share, which was $0.73 above the same period last year. The increase in core earnings was primarily due to the adoption of the 2018 GRC final decision in this quarter and timing of regulatory deferrals related to wildfire insurance and wildfire mitigation costs. Therefore, year-over-year comparisons are not particularly meaningful, but Maria will discuss our financial performance in more detail during her remarks. The final decision on our 2018 GRC authorizes a base revenue requirement of $5.1 billion for 2018 and $16.4 billion over the 2018 to 2020 period. During this period SCE's rate base growth has a compound average growth rate of 8.4%. This excludes wildfire mitigation spending and additional items pending regulatory approval like our Charge Ready 2 electric vehicle charging infrastructure program. Turning to the California wildfire crisis. We remain focused on mitigating catastrophic wildfire risks and the impacts on our communities. I will address the recent legislative actions and then cover the operational practices that SCE has undertaken to reduce wildfire risk. Please turn to Page two of the slide deck we issued with our earnings. We appreciate the significant leadership that Governor Newsom and the Legislature have shown and their willingness to act with urgency to address this wildfire crisis through the passage of Assembly Bill 1054 and companion measures. The bills build on the initial steps of Senate Bill 901 to restore California's regulatory framework and provide the financial stability that utilities require to invest in system safety, reliability and resiliency while continuing to drive towards a clean energy future. As with any major legislation where multiple stakeholders have competing interest, this wildfire bill package reflects compromises. We supported the passage of AB 1054 and the related AB 111, and believe that careful implementation and potential future refinements will be critical to their success. AB 1054 is a comprehensive wildfire bill that holds utilities accountable for mitigating wildfire risks and improves the regulatory compact by clarifying the determination of prudent wildfire operations. The bill contains several important provisions to address wildfire liability risk. First, it changes wildfire safety oversight by creating a Wildfire Safety Division, initially within the CPUC, that will hold utilities accountable for mitigating wildfire risks and operating safely through an annual safety certification. These responsibilities will transition to the new Office of Energy Infrastructure Safety in 2021. For the first safety certification, the CPUC's executive director must issue it within 30 days of an IOU's request if the IOU has an approved wildfire mitigation plan, is in good safety standing, has a safety committee of its Board of Directors composed of members with relevant safety experience and has established Board of Director level reporting to the CPUC on safety issues. Earlier today, the CPUC's Executive Director informed SCE, by letter, that we have met these requirements and have been granted our initial safety certification for the next 12 months. In subsequent years, the IOU must meet these requirements and additionally, have an executive incentive compensation structure to promote safety as a priority and to ensure public safety and utility financial stability. The wildfire safety division must approve the IOU safety certification within 90 days if all the requirements are met. Second, the bill establishes a Wildfire Safety Advisory Board to advise the Wildfire Safety Division. The members of this Board will have relevant expertise, including experience in the safe operation, design and engineering of electrical infrastructure. The third provision refines the process for IOUs to recover catastrophic wildfire costs, particularly considering factors outside the utility's control and changing the prudency standard. Fourth, the bill establishes a $10.5 billion wildfire liquidity fund to pay victim claims exceeding insurance for utility cost wildfires, funded by IOU customers through the extension of the Department of Water Resources bond charge until 2036. There is an option for the IOUs to elect to participate in a broader insurance fund, which conveys additional benefits. It is important to note that for an IOU to benefit from the revised cost recovery standard, it must opt to participate in the wildfire insurance fund. Creation of the insurance fund requires both SCE and SDG&E to participate. With all three IOUs electing to participate, they will contribute a total of $10.5 billion, consisting of an upfront shareholder commitment of $7.5 billion and an annual contribution of $300 million, which is intended to match customer's $10.5 billion contribution over 10 years. Once the fund is established, the revised cost recovery standard will apply and will continue to apply even if the fund is extinguished. Based on the 31.5% wildfire allocation ration for SCE, our upfront contribution translates to approximately $2.4 billion, with the subsequent annual contributions totaling another approximately $950 million. SCE notified the commission today of its commitment to make its initial and annual contributions in order to establish the fund. SCE will make its initial contribution no later than September 10. Maria will discuss our thoughts on the financing options in her remarks, which for now I will summarize as a balanced approach to fund the near-term $2.4 billion increment likely with 50% holding company equity contributed to SCE and 50% operating company debt. The fifth provision requires the large IOUs to invest $5 billion in aggregate on wildfire risk mitigation capital expenditures with no equity return, and authorizes financing of those mitigation costs. SCE's share of these costs will be approximately $1.6 billion. Finally, the bill sets a cap on IOU shareholder liability even where the IOU is found to have been imprudent that is available only with the broader insurance fund. The cap equals 20% of T&D equity rate base, which is around $2.5 billion for SCE today. Turning to our operations. I would now like to address the actions we are taking to combat wildfires in our service territory. For quite some time, even before the devastating fires in Ventura and Santa Barbara counties in December 2017, we have had proactive programs that target wildfire risk. As circumstances continue to change, we have continued to evolve our practices for this new abnormal, as it's been called. Approximately, 27% of our territory is in high fire risk areas, or HFRA. We recently revised this down from an earlier estimate of approximately 35%. SCE's prior HFRA map was based on CAL FIRE's fire hazard severity map. When the CPUC developed a new fire threat map in early 2018, out of an abundance of caution, we included the combination of the two maps in our HFRA footprint until we could do that thorough evaluation that we completed recently. A foundational part of the longer-term solution to reduce the risk of our equipment starting wildfires in these areas is to harden our infrastructure. Over the course of the past 12 months, we have replaced over 200 circuit miles of overhead line with covered conductor, installed fast-acting current-limiting fuses at more than 9,000 locations and updated protective settings on over 1,600 remote automatic reclosers and circuit breakers on our distribution circuits that traverse our HFRAs. While we are making significant headway in our system hardening efforts, it will take time to cover the remaining area. In the more immediate term, we remain focused on ensuring our greatest and the best state possible through rigorous inspections and aggressive vegetation management, and then use proactive deenergization, known as Public Safety Power Shutoff, or PSPS, only when conditions warrant it. Through our Enhanced Overhead Inspection program, we have inspected more than 400,000 electrical structures in high fire risk areas since December, fixing the highest risk findings immediately and remediating nonthreatening issues in a prioritized manner, generally within 6 to 12 months, depending on the condition and the location of the findings. In addition to our ground-based inspections, we are doing aerial inspections using helicopters and drones. Our vegetation management practices have been expanded in high fire risk areas, including widening clearance distances and removing dead and dying trees. In addition, we have an in-house team of weather experts in our 24/7 Situational Awareness Center to monitor local conditions as well as a fire scientist who has established a fuel-sampling program to better understand potential fire risks in our service territory. These risk-monitoring activities also support our PSPS program, which is a preventive measure to protect public safety. Trained incident management teams lead our efforts during elevated fire risk conditions using circuit-specific wind criteria and a fire potential index, or FPI, that measures and predicts local vegetation fuel, fuel moisture content, humidity and other factors. For circuits that are forecast to be above the wind and FPI thresholds, we pre-patrol the lines ready to find and fix any issues. Ultimately, the decision to shut power off is made based on real-time measures of wind and FPI and feedback from monitors in the field. Once the power is off, we wait until the wind and FPI conditions clear before patrolling the lines and restoring power when it is safe to do so. Over time, more system hardening should mean that we can lean on PSPS less frequently and only in more severe conditions. I would now like to give you an update on key regulatory proceedings. The CPUC issued a scoping memo in July on our cost of capital filing. In light of the passage of AB 1054, we are evaluating next steps, including the potential reduction of our requested return on equity. A final decision on this proceeding is expected by the end of this year. In May, the commission issued final decisions on our 2019 wildfire mitigation plan and deenergization guidelines. The currently approved WMP satisfies one of the requirements for the safety certification in AB 1054. As I mentioned earlier, our first approximately $1.6 billion of WMP spend will not earn an equity return. Additionally, the CPUC issued a scoping memo in May for our proposed $582 million Grid Safety and Resiliency Program that we filed in September 2018. In early July of 2019, SCE and certain parties to the GSRP proceeding agreed in principle to a settlement of all contested issues, which led the CPUC to take the scheduled evidentiary hearings off the calendar. SCE and the settling parties anticipate finalizing, executing and submitting a settlement agreement to the CPUC by the end of this month. If the CPUC accepts the settlement agreement, SCE expects a formal decision approximately six months from the date of submission. Let me conclude by saying that the safety of our customers, our communities and our employees continues to be our top priority and a core value of Edison. We are taking steps to reduce the risk of wildfires in our service territory through operational mitigation, and we are also encouraged by the regulatory and legislative policy changes to our risk profile. We will continue to make our communities safer and to manage the financial health of our utility to serve our customers and to help achieve California's public policy objectives and environmental goals. With that, I'll turn it over to Maria for her financial report.
Maria Rigatti:
Thanks, Pedro. Good afternoon, everyone. My comments today will cover second quarter results from 2019 compared to the same period a year ago, plus comments on our General Rate Case, our updated capital expenditure and rate-based forecasts and other financial updates for SCE and EIX. As we have said, year-over-year comparisons are difficult given the timing of the GRC. Please turn to Page 3. For the second quarter 2019, Edison International reported core earnings of $1.58 per share, an increase of $0.73 from the same period last year. From the table on the right-hand side, you will see that SCE had a positive $0.75 core EPS variance year-over-year. There are a few items that account for a majority of this variance. Upon receipt of the 2018 GRC final decision in May, SCE recorded the retroactive 2018 impact, which increased core earnings, primarily due to the application of the 2018 GRC final decision to revenue, depreciation and income tax expenses. This GRC true-up contributed $0.20 of positive earnings. Additionally, higher 2019 revenues had a positive impact of $0.34, including $0.28 at the CPUC and $0.06 at FERC. FERC revenues were higher primarily due to a change in estimate on the FERC formula rate mechanism. Lower O&M costs had a positive impact of $0.14, primarily due to the timing of regulatory deferrals related to wildfire insurance and wildfire mitigation costs. During the quarter, certain wildfire mitigation costs reached the total authorized in GRC and we began to defer incremental costs through approved memo accounts. Finally, lower depreciation and amortization had a positive $0.07 variance, primarily due to the impact of disallowed historical capital expenditures and the change in depreciation rates from the adoption of the 2018 GRC final decision. For the quarter, EIX Parent and Other had a negative $0.02 core earnings variance, mainly due to higher interest expense. Please turn to Page 4. For the first half of the year, Edison International core earnings per share increased $0.56 to $2.21 per share. This includes core earnings increases of $0.55 at SCE and $0.01 at EIX Parent and Other. I'm not going to review the year-to-date financial results in detail, but SCE's earnings analysis is largely consistent with second quarter results, except for higher O&M costs and higher net financing costs. O&M had a negative variance of $0.04 year-over-year, primarily due to higher wildfire mitigation costs, partially offset by timing of regulatory deferrals and cost recovery of wildfire insurance costs. Net financing costs had a negative $0.09 variance, primarily due to increased borrowings and higher interest on balancing accounts. Please turn to Page 5. As Pedro mentioned earlier, the CPUC approved a final decision in SCE's 2018 GRC in May. The decision authorized a CPUC GRC revenue requirement of $5.12 billion for 2018 and identified changes to certain balancing accounts, including the expansion of the Tax Accounting Memo Account, or TAMA, to include the impacts of all differences between forecast and recorded tax expense. Based on the 2018 GRC, SCE's authorized revenue requirement is $5.45 billion in 2019 and $5.86 billion in 2020, representing an increase of $335 million in 2019 and $412 million in 2020. Please turn to Page 6 for SCE's capital expenditures forecast. This forecast reflects planned CPUC jurisdictional spending as approved by the 2018 GRC. It also reflects significant other capital spending needs outside of the GRC, particularly wildfire mitigation-related capital expenditures under the Grid Safety and Resiliency Program, or GS&RP, and the wildfire mitigation plan, or WMP. As an update to our prior forecast, we now estimate approximately $390 million of wildfire-related spending in 2019. Additionally, we continue to expect wildfire mitigation capital expenditures in the range of $500 million to $700 million for 2020. The CPUC has approved the 2019 WMP and authorized tracking of costs related to the GS&RP and the WMP through memorandum accounts. We have also proposed a balancing account for our GS&RP spending and are anticipating a decision from the CPUC this year. Under AB 1054, SCE will not earn an equity return on the first approximately $1.6 billion of wildfire mitigation plan expenditures. We will work with the CPUC to implement this provision in light of the ongoing GS&RP and WMP proceedings. On Page 7, we have our rate-based forecast that incorporates the GRC final decision as well as increases in FERC spend since the last update. The GRC authorizes 2018 CPUC jurisdictional rate base of $22.3 billion. This corresponds to total 2018 rate base of $28.5 billion. SCE's rate base grows at a compound annual rate of 8.4% from 2018 to 2020. I would note that this current rate base forecast does not include any of our wildfire mitigation-related capital spending or additional needs for programs such as Charge Ready 2. On Page 8, you will see our key financial assumptions and EIX core EPS guidance for 2019. Our revise EPS guidance range for 2019 is $4.61 to $4.81 per share with a midpoint of $4.71. This compares with guidance of $4.72 to $4.92 per share we provided after we obtained a final decision on the GRC in May. I would note that this revised guidance is related to changes to our financing plan as we project funding the $2.4 billion initial contribution to the wildfire fund, and there are no updates to the overall operational results of both SCE and EIX Parent. On the left-hand side, we have shown to build up for core EPS guidance, starting with EPS for 2019 from the simplified rate base model. SCE variances are expected to have a positive impact of $0.41, including $0.32 related to financing and other operational items. The test year 2018 GRC true-up has a positive contribution to EPS of $0.20. We booked this contribution in the second quarter. For EIX Parent and Other, we expect an earnings drag of $0.30 cents to $0.35 per share, which includes approximately $0.01 per share per month related to EIX operating expenses. We are forecasting a total of $0.18 of EPS dilution from the financing plan announced last quarter as well as the financing plan required to support the $2.4 billion contribution to the wildfire fund. I will discuss more about this in a minute. At Edison Energy, we are working towards our target of achieving a breakeven run rate for earnings by the end of this year. Let me provide an update on our 2019 financing plan. As Pedro noted earlier, we have notified the commission of our commitment to provide the initial contribution and subsequent annual contributions to the wildfire fund. Following passage of AB 1054, the rating agencies have reported on the credit supportive attributes of the wildfire fund and the legislation more broadly, including changes to the cost recovery and prudency standards. On our last earnings call, I discussed the components of a 2019 EIX financing plan, which included the issuance of $1 billion of holding company debt and $1.5 billion of common equity through an aftermarket, or ATM equity program, and the use of internal equity program. This plan was designed to fund SCE's requirements related to the requested increase in the authorized equity layer and additional growth investment of the utility. Based on our election to participate in the wildfire insurance fund created under AB 1054, SCE requires an additional $2.4 billion to fund the initial shareholder contribution. Funding for this contribution will be in addition to the previously announced plan and together, the combined financing need in 2019 is $4.9 billion. Through the second quarter, EIX has issued $600 million of unsecured notes as part of the original $1 billion debt financing need identified in Q1. We have not yet issued any equity under our ATM program, but we intend to do so opportunistically. As we've discussed in the past, our overall approach to financing the business is to fund capital requirements in a balanced manner. Our Q1 plan to fund the requested increase in the authorized equity layer and make capital investments at SCE is consistent with this philosophy. Likewise, this is how we will approach funding for the initial shareholder contribution to the wildfire fund. We are evaluating a range of potential EIX and SCE funding options to support the incremental $2.4 billion financing need and anticipate the permanent capital raise will likely utilize 50% holding company equity contributed to SCE and 50% operating company debt. As we have outlined, we are focused on a balanced financing approach that maintains a healthy balance sheet and promotes investment-grade ratings at both SCE and EIX. We believe this is the most effective way to support operations and future capital investments. We will continue to share our financing needs as we progress another milestone beyond 2019, including the 2021 GRC, our Charge Ready 2 application, securitization activities related to AB 1054 and potential wildfire liabilities. That concludes our remarks.
Sam Ramraj:
Dustin, please open the call for questions. [Operator Instructions].
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. First question is from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Can you hear me?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes.
Maria Rigatti:
Yes, we can.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Good. Excellent. A little soft for the operator there, so I wasn't sure. All right. Well, thank you again for all the details here. Maybe to just take it off. I just wanted to understand a little bit more on the timing for the combined financing of the $4.9 billion. How do you think about the ATM usage, especially against the timeline for the cost of capital case? Do we need to see an outcome on that front before you decide to move forward with the 1 5 [ph]? And then separately related here, just want to understand, as you think about the $2.4 billion wildfire fund, that as best I understand, it is excluded from the authorized capital structure. Can you talk about the decision to use the 50-50 funding for that versus just using more of the leverage capacity at the whole cut?
Maria Rigatti:
Sure. So Julien, I think we really think about it as this is a total need for 2019. So that includes, both the Q1 items that you just remarked on, equity layer, investment utility as well as the contribution to the wildfire fund. We're going to use the ATM opportunistically. I think we talked about that earlier in the year. That continues to be the case. I think the comment you make around the ability to exclude the amounts from the authorized capital structure, we are obviously, contributing some equity down into SCE and they will issue some operating companies debt. So that does take advantage of that element of the legislation. But overall, the mix of equity and debt that we talked about really reflects our philosophy around financing the business and the balanced way, in which we are approaching at.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. But just to be clear about this, the $4.9 billion that is the intention to issue the equity for the cost of capital equity injection by the end of the year as well?
Maria Rigatti:
That's correct.
Operator:
Our next question is from Praful Mehta from Citigroup.
Praful Mehta:
Just to follow up a little bit on that. In terms of the capital structure, if you don't get to 52%, what happens in that case? Do you want to wait till you get to 52% authorization before you issue? Or is there a prefunding plan as well?
Maria Rigatti:
So thanks, Praful. This is Maria's. So we talked about -- I think a little bit about this in Q1 obviously, with all the events that happened in Q2 it's probably a little bit more to digest. But the -- our plan was to watch the cost of capital proceeding as it goes through the process over the course of the year. Since Q1, there's been -- there have been some developments in terms of issuing a scoping memo, setting a schedule, et cetera. Obviously, Pedro mentioned earlier that we would also be thinking about the interplay between AB 1054 and our ROE request as well. So things are moving along, and we developed the plan to use the ATM to reflect the fact that we would watch that evolve over time. We continue to believe that we're going to use the ATM opportunistically to address that need as well as we're going to be looking at all the tools and the timing frankly and options to fund the initial contribution to the wildfire fund. So that's, generally speaking, the philosophy.
Praful Mehta:
Got you. That's super helpful. And then just secondly, in terms of -- connected to that, if your capital structure does improve, and you get to the 52%, is that reflected in any of the numbers from a GRC perspective in terms of the revenue and all of that? Or do we need to update that in our models to reflect the higher capital equity layer?
Maria Rigatti:
So I mean, I don't know what's in your model but the earnings would then reflect 52%, not 48%, which we have currently. So each year, we go in to the CPUC and we file the revenue requirements for the year. So it's the -- if 2020 and includes a 52% equity layer, we would update the revenue requirement for at that beginning of the year, same thing for '21, et cetera.
Praful Mehta:
Got you. So that decision and that -- you will show that revenue requirement once you file it depending on the decision from the CPUC?
Maria Rigatti:
That's correct.
Operator:
Our next question is from Ali Agha from SunTrust.
Ali Agha:
My first question. Just to clarify, when you're thinking about your current equity needs. So the $1.5 billion stays as is? And if we assume 50% of the $2.4 billion will also be equity, so we're early talking about $2.7 billion in total. one, I wanted to be clear. And then related to that, have you checked in with the rating agencies, are they comfortable with that mix and the amount of incremental debt that is implied in this math?
Maria Rigatti:
So in response to your first question, Ali. The $1.5 billion relates to the equity layer request that we have into the CPUC. We've indicated sort of a 50-50 structure against the $2.4 billion contribution to wildfire fund, so that would be $1.2 billion. So yes, that's $2.7 billion. So it's confirming your math there. In terms of the rating agencies. We have an ongoing dialogue with them throughout the course of the year obviously, lots of dialogue around AB 1054. I'm pretty sure they've talked to --I spoked on the phone as well. And they've remarked across the board, including in their published reports, about AB 1054. All the credit supported aspects that the wildfire insurance funds incorporates, the liquidity benefits, the cap, the standards for reasonable conducts. So I think that's been a very -- they've come out very strongly in favor of that. Now we've just elected to contribute to the wildfire fund. So that was one of the things that they've been looking for. They've also been looking for a safety certification. Obviously, and Pedro just mentioned, that we got our safety certification today. So we think that, that -- all of that is the very supportive. And we believe now that we have all these things in place, that the third leg of the school is the -- stool, rather, is the financing plan. And we believe that our financing plan aligns with the rating agency's published guidance around maintaining our financial risk profile.
Pedro Pizarro:
And Ali, if I could just follow on with Maria here. As we developed that plan that Maria emphasized, the fact that it is a balanced plan, it's one that we think will preserve our financial health. And it's one that frankly we want to make sure that overtime continue to build the strength of the balance sheet and have a good shock absorber built into that. So as folks have been developing their models, we see reports, and maybe, some folks might have thought perhaps it is more or less that, et cetera. We wanted to take a balanced approach that allows us to build that strength and preserve some ability to always have some shock absorber in the system.
Ali Agha:
Got you. And a quick follow up. Where do we stand on the '17 and '18 wildfires, which are obviously not covered in this? And eventually are you thinking for modeling purpose that there may be more equity needed as you have to pay for those liabilities sometimes in the future?
Pedro Pizarro:
I don't think we have substantial update '17 and '18 from Q1. Recall that at the end of '18, we took the accounting reserve for what we viewed as the low end of the estimable range of potential liabilities there. And I think as we've signaled all along, this could be a long process as we work our way through the litigation efforts in the courts. There's always, of course, a possibility of parties wanting to enter settlement discussions. We've returned to talk about that. But just reflecting the fact that as you've seen cases historically, they often end up with some attempts at that. So nothing to update at this point other than to reinforce that, we think that the reserve we took at the end of last year still make sense in terms of refining low end of the estimable range. And that will take some time to work through a complex proceedings there. There's a number of legal milestones, et cetera, from week to week or month to month, but nothing that we felt was to level of materiality for these disclosures.
Operator:
Our next question is from Steve Fleishman from Wolfe Research.
Steven Fleishman:
So Pedro, a question for you just on your comment of careful implementation and potential future refinements being critical to the law of success. Could you maybe give a little more color on what you might be referring to with those comments?
Pedro Pizarro:
Sure. And yes, I think a number of you have heard us talk about the parallels to the energy crisis two decades ago. That also included in it's solution new legislation that setup a new framework. And then there was a period of time where the CPUC and other agencies had to go implement the law. There's a lot of building blocks or Lego blocks, however you want to think about it, that have to come together in place here. Now we need to -- we've already been, I think, encouraged by seeing positive early steps. The fact that we filed for initial annual certification, safety certification, and already obtained that from the CPUC today. That's, I think, a good marker along the way. There will be many more markers. There will be the creation of the wildfire safety division, initially inside the CPUC, and then later on being moved out to a new agency under the Natural Resources Branch of state government. There will be the creation of Wildfire Safety Board. There will be the input from those entities into future wildfire mitigation plans. So probably keep on reciting the various terms of the legislation and things that where we will all, I think, once you see good implementation of those and good track record built. And will build, I think, the confidence that we, that investors, that customers, that communities have in how the laws being implemented. We didn't specify any specific potential future refinements, but the reality is that with any law that this is large and complex as this one -- and frankly, that was written and passed and signed by the governor with such a sense of urgency, which means that the one that moves quickly. There are often cleanups that need to be made, sometimes it can be small and sometimes it can be the less small , sometimes it's just a clarification of a construction of language, and then other times it might be -- maybe more significant things. We're not ready at this point to enumerate a list of this, but we acknowledge that it is certainly very feasible that given the complexity and time involved here, there will be some of this. I don't know if that helps you, Steve, to frame your answer to the question.
Steven Fleishman:
Yes. No, that's helpful. I have one follow up just on timing of financing. And just the -- I know the wildfire contribution is not due till September and the equity ratio decision not till year-end. But just -- we do have record stock market, we have very low interest rates and the like and your stocks has bounce that leaves some with this legislation. So just why wouldn't you just get a lot of this financing off the table as soon as possible?
Maria Rigatti:
Steve, it's Maria. We obviously are watching the market. We want efficient execution. We're evaluating all the timing issues that you just raised. But that's what we're doing right now. We're evaluating it.
Operator:
Our next question is from Paul Fremont from Mizuho.
Paul Fremont:
Congratulations on getting the AB 1054 and getting that all behind you. In terms of how to think about the company on a longer-term basis, is there a level of FFO-to-debt that we should be thinking that the company is going to be targeting as you move forward in time?
Maria Rigatti:
No. Paul, this is Maria. I think it's about the more as -- we do think that having investment-grade -- that's a processes we've just gone through over the past year or two, obviously, we have a strong commitment to investment-grade ratings at both SCE and EIX. We're still working through a process with the rating agencies in terms of how they will think about and sort of reposition California from a strength of the regulatory construct, et cetera. So as we move through that, I think that -- keep in mind or you can understand it we'll be targeting those investment-grade ratings. I think the metrics themselves are important, but equally important is how California looks to the rating agencies on a go-forward basis. So that meets the metric itself, I think, will be less specific about that and we'll just be focused on keeping that investment-grade rating solid.
Paul Fremont:
Okay. So you're not going to have like numerical target that you're going to provide to investors?
Maria Rigatti:
Not at this time. No.
Paul Fremont:
And then going back to Ali's question. In terms of when you do pay out claims to claimants from the '17 and '18 fires, should we think about a funding formula that is similar to the sort of the 50-50 that you're talking about for your initial contribution to the wildfire mitigation fund? Or how should we think about your approach towards funding those cash needs?
Maria Rigatti:
Maybe think about it in a couple of three different ways, First, there isn't a lot of the variables that would need to be taken into consideration. So post-2019, you're referring to the wildfire liabilities. But we're going to be filing our 2021 GRC. There is the issue around the securitization for the wildfire mitigation-related spending. That's in the AB 1054. We have other applications pending in front of the commission that also require capital. So there's a lot of things to take into the mix or into consideration in addition to the liabilities. The first part of the liability is presumably get covered by insurance as a starting point in any event. So there is a lot of timing in there, there is a lot of different variables. Recall also that when we requested our capital waiver, we asked for some relief around, including the charges and the financing for those potential liabilities in our capital structure. So there's a lot of different things that we're going to have to weigh and consider before we make a final determination as to how we finance that part of the go-forward plan.
Pedro Pizarro:
And I would just settle the score that just those -- the timing of the liabilities alone is a significant variable because it will depend on a court process for different cases that has only just begun.
Paul Fremont:
I guess what I'm really trying to get, is there any expected potential equity need beyond the $2.7 billion? Or is -- should we just think of the $2.7 billion as the end of your equity need?
Maria Rigatti:
The 2019 plan is only laid out. I think and as I just noted, there are a lot of variables as you move past this year. And we're going to have to consider all of those variables. We're going to have to consider the timing that Pedro just noted, not just on the potential liabilities but in all of the decisions that I just referred to. So I think that, that is sort of a go-forward planning element that we'll share with you with we have more information. We will continue to focus on our investment-grade rating. So that's the other piece of the mix in terms of the decision-making process.
Operator:
Our next question is from Angie Storozynski from Macquarie.
Agnieszka Storozynski:
So I know you mentioned that there's going to be plenty of refinements of this new law. But I'm -- my bigger concern is that it is $21 billion, which seems like a large amount. But we're going through the PG&E bankruptcy where they're mentioning $30 billion in liabilities related to one very large fire, but still in excess of that amount. And the bill doesn't really talk about how this sum gets replenished. So how should we think about it? Is it that going forward, the goal is still to have some sort of a inverse culmination change, which will be more supportive of investor on utilities in the state? Or is it that there is hope that this $21 billion basically is sufficient for all utilities and all future fires going forward?
Pedro Pizarro:
Yes. So let me start trying to frame an answer here, and Maria or Adam Umanoff or others here may have thoughts to. I think for starters, the $21 billion fund is expected to cover potential liabilities that they could be much larger. At least $40 billion, $45 billion. And that's, I think, based on the history of -- and how these cases grow. You often see settlements achieve that have a discount built into them. In fact, the legislation itself, as you might recall, has essentially built in discount for segregation claims of 40%. It provides a possibility for settlements that are higher, but those who need to be essentially approved by the fund manager. So there's, I think, a clear expectation, Angie, that there's a significant discount there. And frankly, that's part of the compact here across a lot of stakeholders and a lot of competing interest. I think the governor probably said it pretty well when he gave his first -- he goes to a conference call that he gave when the strike force reports came out. And if I recall correctly, he made a comment about everybody in California having to bear some share here in terms of dealing with this issue. So clearly, there's a piece that shareholders are now having to contribute, there's a piece of customers who are contributing and there's a piece that through the 40% that's built in there, you're seeing a discount being applied to the recoveries that the insurers would get. So I think it's a piece here for everybody. So I think that's the starting point. And in fact, the government -- the governor's office team released some projections of the durability of the fund and those 10 years out exceeded the 90% level. So that's one piece of it. I think the second piece is that the focus on durability over 10 years on an actuarial basis was rooted at least in part in the discussions that we heard on the idea of giving California and California Utilities time to continue to harden our assistance. And so the expectation is that the overall risk profile for the state, although it will never be zero, will never be zero, but that the risk profile should decrease, should improve significantly as all of us, the utilities side, continue to put in investments to harden in our infrastructure. And it's not just us. It's other measures of the state is developing and implementing around better funding for fire suppression, the focus on better standards for homes and businesses and buildings in high fire risk areas, the refinement of fire maps. Angie, all of these things are forest management, really important one, right? So this all goes to the decreasing the risk of the spark coming out, but if the spark comes out, then decreasing the risk of that spark turns into a massive wildfire of $30 billion-plus versus a maybe more contained wildfire. So I think that's the philosophy. You are right that there is not a specific replenishment mechanism in general for the fund. And I think there's a sense that there was a significant accomplishment by the governor and legislature in implementing this first phase that has feasibility that's out and hopefully, decade or so. And I'm sure the state will continue to check and adjust as it sees how that experience goes.
Operator:
Our next question is from Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs.
Michael Lapides:
Real quickly, is there a potential use of securitization to help cover the 2017 portion of the wildfire claims after insurance that you actually have to pay out?
Maria Rigatti:
Yes. So the 2017 claims or wildfires are covered in SB 901. And there, in 2017, you can securitize the benefit of the customer if there are amounts that have been disallowed, but they are viewed as being -- would undermining the utilities financial stability. The commission has gone through a proceeding to define how that would work and what the -- how you would calculate the piece that would be basically too much for the utility to bear. That calculation, I would say, is one that's probably not an example of perfect clarity, but it's also something that I don't -- I think at the end of the day, we put it on to define particularly useful. You may recall that we said it before that we did not -- in really necessarily be in a position to take advantage of that 2017 provision. I don't really see securitization as a big opportunity for the '17 amount. The amount of wildfire mitigation-related spending that we have to basically implement without a return. So our portion of the $5 billion that's in AB 1054, that is something that is able to be securitized.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. But you would effectively net neutral on that?
Maria Rigatti:
That's right.
Michael Lapides:
Right. Okay. Typical securitization built, just like storm recovery occurs in other jurisdictions, et cetera?
Maria Rigatti:
Yes.
Michael Lapides:
Okay. My second question is, what is not in rate base growth guidance that over the next 6 to 12, 6 to 18 months you think should get -- potentially get added to it? You talked a little bit it in the opening remarks. If you don't mind revisiting that, that would be great. I'm just trying to make sure kind of the puts and takes the items that are in it, the items that are not in it.
Maria Rigatti:
Sure. So 6 of 12 months frankly, Michael, is a fairly short time frame. So we're not sure of it that just will be necessarily added even the next 6 to 12 months. So what's not in the rate base forecast right now is, we haven't included the wildfire mitigation-related to spending that we've been identified for '19 and '20. That's -- it's in our CapEx forecast, but not in our rate base forecast. That is going to be essentially subject to that AB 1054 provision we have to work with the commission to figure out how to implement that alongside our GS&RP and wildfire mitigation plan. But for clarification, it's not in our rate base numbers. We also have a Charge Ready 2 application pending in front of the commission. We're thinking we're going to get a decision on that later this year. It's about $560 million of capital or thereabout. But remember, that rolls out over a number of years, so of the impact on rate base, even if we're spending CapEx, the impact on rate base over the next couple of years probably pretty moderate. Longer term, we're looking at energy storage. At some point, CAISO will develop a plan to bring -- that meet the new -- the higher renewable portfolio standards and we have an opportunity potentially to participate in that mix. But those are not 6 to 12 months issues. Those are longer-term issues.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Okay. And on the cost of capital pocket, what's the time line and in process from here? I mean, the CPUC has a lot of things on its plate. I'm just trying to think about how they prosecute all of the items and kind of where this one fits in the prioritization ranking?
Maria Rigatti:
Well, thus far, they have been very diligent about holding to their schedule. Comments are due from interveners and from the utilities on August 1. And then they have a schedule on scoping manual and schedule that has the decision coming out before year-end.
Operator:
Our next question from Greg Gordon from Evercore.
Gregory Gordon:
Just one follow-up question. When it comes to the wildfire mitigation spending where you're not going to receive an equity return. Before thinking about modeling, the spending and the recovery on that, should we presume that you'll recover at a cost of debt return on 100% of the investment and that you could finance it accordingly, such that there's no negative arbitrage to your -- on your financing costs relative to your ability to recover the capital? Or did I hear differently that essentially it would be sleeved and it would have no impact at all?
Maria Rigatti:
Yes. So the way the legislation is drafted is that it would basically be a securitization, so dedicated rate components that would allow us to recover the return of our capital, but then the return on the debt, which would be presumably lower cost. So it's structured in a way to be minimize the cost to the customer. So yes, that would be neutral. We are -- we need to work with the commission to determine when those pieces would fall into place so they wouldn't -- essentially, we could be implementing program before the securitization actually took -- was issued -- that was actually issued. So we have to figure out with the commission how it will implement it. But in sort of a like big picture kind of response would be, it's basically designed to be neutral to us.
Gregory Gordon:
Okay. So you'll get a recovery, essentially be a debt return, the debt that you issue will be recovered dollar-for-dollar and then you'll depreciate the assets and recover the capital you invested?
Maria Rigatti:
That's right.
Gregory Gordon:
Right. And then when it comes to the -- you're raising this equity at the parent level to put down into SCE and you're going to issue debt at the SCE level to pay for the wildfire insurance contribution, what's the accounting for this? Is going to be a charge that you have to take that will go against the GAAP equity but -- I think for my understanding of the legislation is from a -- in terms of accounting for your regulatory capital structure that this would -- these financing costs would not be counted against your regulatory capital structure pre-making purposes. I'm sitting here trying to model this stuff frankly, and I'm just -- we could use some guidance.
Maria Rigatti:
Yes. So we're still evaluating the accounting for it, Greg, to be quite honest. It could be a charge but -- and certainly wouldn't be more than the amount of the a contribution. But we're actually frankly still working through that in determining how we would account for that. That's the first question. So that's a GAAP kind of response. Second part of your question is, yes, there could be a charge for GAAP purposes, but under the legislation, we would not have to take that hit in our regulatory accounting.
Gregory Gordon:
Okay. So if I'm looking to do side-by-side a GAAP sort of capital structure against regulatory, and I do presume that there is a charge, I would reverse the charge for regulatory purposes in my equity calculation?
Maria Rigatti:
That's correct. Correct.
Operator:
Our next question is from Travis Miller from MorningStar.
Travis Miller:
Just wondering how you think, real quick, about the dividends with respect to any kind of equity needs. Where does that fit in?
Maria Rigatti:
I think we understand the importance of the dividends to our shareholders, no question. Obviously, from prior quarter when dividend question was captioned in slightly different way or from a different angle. We don't get ahead of our Board on those issues. But our policy has been to grow the dividend. We'll continue to manage over the longer term to that 45%, 55% payout ratio range. But we understand the importance to our investors.
Travis Miller:
Okay. And then on the wildfire adder that you had requested in the cost of the capital, how do you think about that now? Or how do you think the commission will think about that now post the legislation that presumably would lower your cost of equity in the market?
Pedro Pizarro:
Travis, I think we mentioned in your remarks, we're still evaluating that. We had said all along that if there was a new policy established through legislation, we will look at revisiting that for potential reduction or even the elimination depending on how the risk profile changed. To be honest with you, we're still observing that quickly and evaluating that. And I believe we have a deadline coming up of August 1 for filing our comments in the cost of capital proceeding with CPUC.
Operator:
At this time, there are no further questions. I will now turn the call back to Mr. Sam Ramraj.
Sam Ramraj:
Yes. Thank you for joining us today. And please call us if you have any follow-up questions. This concludes the conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
That concludes today's conference. You may disconnect at this time.
Operator:
Good afternoon and welcome to the Edison International First Quarter 2019 Financial Teleconference. My name is Michelle and I'll be your operator today. [Operator Instructions] Today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Sam Ramraj, Vice President of Investor Relations. You may begin, sir. Thank you.
Sam Ramraj:
Thank you, Michelle, and welcome, everyone. Our speakers today are President and Chief Executive Officer, Pedro Pizarro; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Maria Rigatti. Also here are other members of the management team. Materials supporting today's call are available at www.edisoninvestor.com. These include our Form 10-Q, prepared remarks from Pedro and Maria, and the teleconference presentation. Tomorrow, we will distribute our regular business update presentation. During this call, we will make forward-looking statements about the outlook for Edison International and its subsidiaries. Actual results could differ materially from current expectations. Important factors that could cause different results are set forth in our SEC filings. Please read these carefully. The presentation includes certain outlook assumptions, as well as reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure. During the question-and-answer session, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. I will now turn the call over to Pedro.
Pedro J. Pizarro:
Thank you, Sam. Before I begin my business remarks, I want to pause to mourn the loss of one of our directors, Ellen Tauscher, who passed away last night. Ellen accomplished so much
Maria C. Rigatti:
Thank you, Pedro, and good afternoon, everyone. My comments today will cover first quarter results for 2019 compared to the same period a year-ago, plus comments on the proposed decision in our General Rate Case, our updated capital expenditure and rate base forecasts, and other financial updates for SCE and EIX. As we’ve said, year-over-year comparisons are difficult given the timing of the GRC. Through the first quarter, we continued to recognize revenue from CPUC activities largely based on 2017 authorized base revenue requirements with reserves taken for known items including the 2017 cost of capital decision and tax reform. SCE will account for the impacts of the final decision in the 2018 GRC in the period in which that decision is received. Please turn to Page 2. For the first quarter 2019, Edison International reported core earnings of $0.63 per share, a decline of $0.17 from the same period last year. From the table on the right‐hand side, you will see that SCE had a negative $0.20 core EPS variance year‐over‐year. There are a few items that account for the bulk of this variance. To begin, higher revenues had a positive impact of $0.08, including $0.06 at the CPUC and $0.02 at FERC. Higher CPUC revenues primarily relate to customer refunds in 2018 for prior over‐collections, and incremental return on rate base recorded through the pole loading balancing account. FERC revenues were higher primarily due to higher operating costs There was a negative impact of $0.18 due to higher O&M primarily due to wildfire mitigation costs, including enhanced overhead inspections and other preventative maintenance costs. Through our grid safety and resiliency program and 2019 wildfire mitigation plan filings, we’ve regulatory mechanisms in place to track and request recovery of these increased costs. Through the course of the year, we will begin to defer incremental costs associated with wildfire mitigation, but this will not occur until the costs incurred exceed the total authorized in the GRC. The timing of the expenditures and the point at which the deferrals begin drives year‐ over‐year variances. I will speak more about this in a few minutes. Finally, we had a negative impact of $0.07 from higher financing costs due to increased borrowings and higher interest expense on balancing account over‐collections. For the quarter, EIX Parent and Other had a positive $0.03 core earnings variance due to lower corporate expenses and lower losses at the competitive business. Please turn to Page 3. As Pedro mentioned earlier, we received a proposed decision on our 2018 GRC on April 12th. The PD, if adopted, would authorize $5.1 billion in 2018 revenue requirement, which is $432 million or 7.8% lower than our request. A significant portion of the reduction, or about $150 million, is associated with the recover -- recovery of lower depreciation expense. Additionally, approximately $100 million is related to O&M reductions in incentive compensation for our employees and executives, a reduction that we’ve experienced in prior GRCs as well. The third driver of the revenue requirement reduction is related to the lower capital authorized by the PD. If the PD is adopted by the CPUC, SCE’s revenue requirement will increase by $320 million in 2019 and an additional $401 million in 2020. The PD also identifies changes to certain balancing accounts, including the expansion of the Tax Accounting Memo Account, or TAMA, to include the impacts of all differences between forecast and recorded tax expense. The PD would also disallow certain historical spending, largely related to a number of infrastructure replacement programs and corporate real estate. I will address capital spending and rate base in a moment. We will be filing formal comments on May 2. As Pedro noted, we have significant policy concerns in a few areas and are conducting meetings with the Commission to discuss these concerns. Slide 4 has a summary of the key topics that SCE will be addressing when we file comments in a few days. Please turn to Page 5 for SCE’s capital expenditures forecast. The capital expenditures forecast reflects the proposed decision as well as other capital spending needs. The GRC PD approved CPUC capital spending of $2.8 billion for 2018 compared to our request of $3.6 billion. Overall, the PD authorizes 86% of the traditional capital expenditure programs and 34% of the grid modernization capital relative to our request. As we’ve mentioned before, as we waited for the GRC decision, we developed our capital expenditure plans to meet our business objectives while still maintaining flexibility. Specifically, these plans allow SCE to execute its capital spending program over the 3‐year GRC period, that is 2018 through 2020, to meet what is ultimately authorized in the decision while minimizing the associated risk of unauthorized spending. We believe we will be able to reasonably balance our total capital spending over this timeframe. We also have significant capital programs outside of the GRC, particularly related to wildfire mitigation. In 2019, we’ve approximately $350 million of wildfire‐related spending as discussed last quarter. For 2020, we expect wildfire mitigation capital expenditures in a range of $500 million to $700 million. We have approved memo accounts to track these costs and have requested a balancing account for our GS&RP spend. To the extent not recovered through balancing accounts, we expect that wildfire mitigation spending will be addressed in future GRCs. On Page 6, we’ve updated our rate base forecast to reflect the 2018 GRC proposed decision. The PD proposes 2018 CPUC GRC‐jurisdictional rate base of $22.6 billion. This corresponds to total 2018 rate base of $28.4 billion. We expect to update the forecast when we receive a final decision. I would note that our current rate base forecast does not include any of our wildfire mitigation‐related capital spending. On Page 7, you will see our financial assumptions for 2019. We will provide 2019 earnings guidance after we get a final decision on the GRC. In the meantime, we have laid out some additional information for your consideration as you model 2019 and beyond. This includes “Other Items” that reflect some considerations outside of the simplified rate base model and are noted in the bottom right hand side. During the quarter, SCE secured additional wildfire insurance bringing total coverage to $1.2 billion for the period June 2019 to June 2020. These policies are subject to $115 million of co‐insurance. SCE expects its coverage for this period to also be subject to an initial self‐insured retention of $10 million per occurrence, but, based on policies currently in place, SCE's coverage for the period is subject to self‐insured retention of $50 million per occurrence. Based on the current levels of co‐insurance and self‐insured retention, SCE has approximately $1 billion of insurance, after adjusting for these items. SCE may obtain additional wildfire insurance for this time period in the future. Based on policies currently in effect and prior to any regulatory deferral, the cost in 2019 is $399 million. We have a memo account that was utilized in 2018 to record incremental insurance costs. Similar to 2018, we believe the incremental 2019 costs will be probable of recovery and so subject to deferral. However, the deferral of these costs will not begin until we’ve recorded amounts equal to the levels authorized for 2019. This is similar to the accounting treatment I noted earlier related to wildfire mitigation O&M costs. There too we have memo accounts that are utilized to track incremental wildfire mitigation costs, which we believe will be probable of recovery. However, until we reach authorized levels, we will continue to expense costs as they are incurred. Given these mechanisms, full-year results are more representative and we will provide guidance and additional information regarding deferrals when we have a final GRC decision. For EIX Parent and Other, we expect an earnings drag of $0.30 to $0.35 per share. Included in this is approximately one penny per share per month related to EIX operating expenses. The overall increase from last year is primarily due to higher forecasted interest expense driven by higher long‐term debt issuances and interest rates. At Edison Energy, we continue to work towards our target of achieving a break‐even run rate for earnings by the end of this year. Please turn to Page 8. I would now like to discuss the recent FERC and CPUC filings that address regulatory cost of capital and authorized capital structure. As Pedro noted earlier, on April 11th, SCE submitted revisions to its transmission owner tariff filing with FERC. SCE has requested an overall return on equity of 18.40% consisting of a conventional ROE of 11.12%, CAISO and project‐based incentive adders of approximately 1.28% and a wildfire‐associated ROE component of 6% to compensate for this unique risk. More recently, on April 22nd, SCE submitted its CPUC Cost of Capital Application. In this filing, SCE is requesting an overall return on equity of 16.6%, which reflects a base ROE of 10.6% and the additional 6% ROE related to wildfire risks similar to the FERC filing. California is a leader in addressing climate change and air pollution, with both the legislature and CPUC advancing the effort toward a clean energy future. Investor owned utilities support and enable these objectives, but challenges and risks arise that do not exist in other jurisdictions at the scale we find them in California. We can manage these risks given our experience and understanding of the issues, but these are still differentiators. These include the efforts related to the State’s aggressive clean energy goals such as the use of more varied, earlier stage and more expensive technologies, proliferation of distributed energy resources and the need to design and manage a grid to accommodate this, and various investment needs, including replacing the aging infrastructure. The increasingly deliberate nature of the regulatory process is also something that must be reflected in the cost of capital given the risks introduced by this regulatory lag. Beyond these challenges, we face the additional risk imposed by the dramatic increase in catastrophic wildfires combined with uncertainty regarding cost recovery should a utility’s equipment be a substantial cause of a wildfire’s ignition. We’ve discussed the drivers for this risk before and Pedro has outlined the structures and solutions needed for a more appropriate allocation of this risk. However, until a reasonable framework is implemented, the return on equity needs to reflect this additional risk. To be clear, we do not want a never‐ending series of ROE adders related to wildfire risk. The solution must be structural, but until that happens, we need to include this additional element in our cost of capital to reflect fairly the risks being underwritten by our investors. In addition to cost of capital changes, we have also requested a change to our authorized capital structure. Currently our authorized capital structure reflects 48% common equity, 9% preferred equity and 43% debt. This will change to 52% common equity, 5% preferred equity and 43% debt, if approved. This change is more aligned with capital structures across California and in other jurisdictions. Importantly, it also provides support for our credit ratings as we continue to invest in the infrastructure needed to safely and reliably serve our customers. SCE is also proposing to maintain the current Cost of Capital trigger mechanism, which provides for an automatic modification of ROE during the 3‐year cycle based on fluctuations in interest rates as measured by changes in the Moody’s utility bond index. We understand the customer cost impact of our proposed cost of capital and capital structure, in particular, the impact of the wildfire‐related ROE component. However, this is necessary in order to address these unique risks as we continue to make the investments that support our customers’ needs and help California meet its environmental objectives. We will continue to work with stakeholders on a structural remedy to appropriately allocate this risk and when that happens, we will file to modify the risk adder included in our cost of capital. Please turn to Page 9. The changes in our capital structure and ongoing investment needs at SCE drive the financing plan that Pedro mentioned earlier. EIX has historically maintained a strong balance sheet. As Pedro noted, our rate base has grown significantly over more than two decades through a combination of internally generated cash flow, retained earnings, debt financings and benefits from other items such as bonus depreciation. The cost of capital application and the requested change in authorized capital structure to a 52% equity layer drives a need for up to $1.5 billion of additional equity at SCE. The PD highlights ongoing SCE rate base growth at a compound annual rate of 8% from 2018 to 2020. We also see additional capital needs beyond the 2018 GRC including grid resiliency expenditures and transportation electrification. We are developing our 2021 GRC capital requirements and expect to file in September. Overall, our financing plan takes a balanced approach and utilizes both equity and debt in order to meet the requested increase in authorized equity layer and make capital investments at SCE. EIX has evaluated a range of potential funding options to efficiently finance the current need at SCE and we will maintain flexibility while we execute our 2019 financing plan. The plan includes a number of components
Sam Ramraj:
Michelle, please open the call for questions. As a reminder, we request you to limit yourself to one question and one follow-up, so everyone in line has an opportunity to ask questions.
Operator:
Yes. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Agnieszka Storozynski from Macquarie. Your line is now open.
Agnieszka Storozynski:
Thank you. So first the additional equity, so you don’t yet know if the increased equity layer will be approved and yet you’re already starting the ATM program. And secondly, the scope of capital proceeding would not kick in until the beginning of next year, right? So you’re adding this ROE adder even though we’re hopeful, I think we’re all hopeful that before the end of this year there's going to be either a legislature for a regulatory fix to wildfires. And so is this just a contingency or are you trying to send a message that it is unlikely, then those issues will be resolved before the end of this year. Thank you.
Pedro J. Pizarro:
Angie, it's Pedro. Good to hear from you. Let me start with the back end of that around the adder and then Maria talk about the sequence on the ATM. Just remember reinforcing some of the comments that both Maria and I made, we asked for the adder in both the CPUC cost of capital and FERC RE proceedings, because we view that as appropriate compensation for the risks that our investors are being asked to take under the current framework. Very hopeful that the State will address that. I think I’ve said in prior calls that we remain confident that ultimately this will be resolved, because of [indiscernible] financially help the utilities, but sitting here we can't handicap a probability around whether it happens in this round or next round or what have you, right? So timing is, I think one of the question marks for us. We thought it was prudent and appropriate to go ahead and make these filings. Now that you get to the question of what’s the best way to start filling the ultimate need is different timing on the pieces, FERC ROE has a separate schedule from the CPUC cost of capital. But I think, I will let -- turn it over to Maria now, the bottom line here is flexibility, making sure that we take a nice glide path here that gives us flexibility and optimizes for investors and also for customers.
Maria C. Rigatti:
Thanks, Pedro. Yes, Angie I think that’s exactly right. We want to be flexible, we want to be disciplined, while the cost of capital proceeding has not yet been completed. Obviously, we’re in the early stages still. We want to be efficient and we will be measured in our approach to our financing plan. So we think that the ATM program initiated in 2019 really gives us that flexibility. We can meet those objectives. We can also move incrementally and address the need, while we’re still monitoring the process, the regulatory framework, how that proceeding itself is moving along. So I think that’s -- we’re trying to get at all of those objectives in terms of our financing plans.
Agnieszka Storozynski:
Okay. Because I’m just -- in a sense would -- is it fair to say that if we’re assuming this equity dilution, we should be imputing your earnings power using a higher equity layer as well? Is that a way, so I’m just thinking that not to be too impute this to your earnings power if I were just dilute your earnings without giving you the benefit of the high earnings power, assuming this higher equity layer?
Maria C. Rigatti:
Well, certainly the equity layer is aimed at and sized towards the additional equity layer that we’ve requested from the CPUC, that’s for sure. Obviously, they haven't approved it yet, that’s why we’re taking a very measured approach in terms of the issuance and as you pointed out, potential for dilution.
Agnieszka Storozynski:
Okay. Thank you.
Pedro J. Pizarro:
Thanks, Angie.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Praful Mehta from Citigroup Your line is now open.
Praful Mehta:
Thanks so much. Hi, guys.
Pedro J. Pizarro:
Hey, Praful.
Praful Mehta:
Hi. So just clarify little bit on the equity issuance. From a timing perspective, are you willing to wait through the July 12 timing, which is the expected legislation because obviously if that goes through it helps the equity and kind of makes the issuance cost a lot lower. How do you think about -- I get the flexibility point, but how do we think about that in relation to the timing expected for the legislation?
Maria C. Rigatti:
Sure. Great question, Praful. So we definitely want to share with folks about our financing plan is for 2019. I don’t think we’re going to get pin down to exactly when we’re going to do, particular things and we did share with you that we just close the term loan at EIX on Friday. But I think once we share with the plan, the precise timing of the plan, I think is subject to a lot of different factor.
Praful Mehta:
All right. I guess you want to hold off on being more specific, I get it. I guess the second question on the wildfire fund and I appreciate the three points that you laid out Pedro in terms of how you think about what’s needed. The wildfire fund as we understand that came out from that strike force seem like it was more short-term in nature as then it was funded at one-time, utilized to kind of deal with wildfires about three, four years at which point you’ve kind of dealt with the mitigation efforts are working and you don't need the fund anymore. Do you see the wildfire fund is something that is short-term in nature or do you see the wildfire fund is something that is needed more longer term to deal with the wildfire problem in California?
Pedro J. Pizarro:
Yes, Praful, that’s a good question. And the short answer is it's the latter. This is a longer-term structure. Let me clarify there something in your question because the way that we read the strike force [indiscernible] a little different from the way you just described it. They actually propose two different funds. One, that’s what they call the liquidity only fund and then the second was the wildfire fund which we understood and viewed as a longer-term structure. The first one, the liquidity only fund in a sense that looks a lot different words and maybe the -- slightly the constructer. but it's a lot like what we’ve also been talking about in terms of the ability to securitize needs upfront, because we believe that can then mitigate cost impacts for customers, right? So we view that liquidity only fund essentially as a revolving fund of source to deal with the short-term needs to get cash out to fire victims with the wildfire fund and being that we’ve been thinking as a more traditional longer-term structure. Obviously, a lot of these are still to be worked out, not only the continuing strike force discussions, but importantly now and the different venue of the wildfire commission as I mentioned in my remarks already and then ultimately the legislature. But I wanted to clarify that that view to two different funds that have been suggested.
Praful Mehta:
Got you. Thanks so much, guys. I will leave it to others to get into more detail as well.
Pedro J. Pizarro:
Great. Thanks, Praful.
Operator:
Our next call will come from Ali Agha from SunTrust. Your line is now open.
Pedro J. Pizarro:
Hi, Ali.
Ali Agha:
Thank you. Good afternoon. First question, just to clarify again on the equity front. And I was unclear, embedded in that amount that you’ve laid out, is there some assumption about equity or cash, I should say, that you may need to pay for the wildfires or would that be a totally separate calculation for equity needs? Is that all built in and how much do the internal plans annually drip, etcetera provide for you?
Maria C. Rigatti:
So -- hi, Ali. It's Maria. The financing plan we talked about today is really aimed at the increased equity layer that we’ve requested from the CPUC and growth capital at SCE. So that's really what this plan is about. I think we will evaluate additional considerations as we move forward in time and find out frankly the answers to the type of questions that you just posed in terms of what’s happening on the wildfire front. In terms of internal programs, I would say you probably think about $50 million or $60 million a year. I mean it vary. We have had some years that are higher, some of the years that are lower, frankly.
Ali Agha:
Okay. And then second question, on the wildfire front, I just wanted to get a sense of the sequencing and tracking from our site, the government talked about getting something done by July 12 recess, but after that the session actually run still September 13. Just curious how you are looking at the sequencing? And the point that you made about the legal challenge to inverse condemnation, wondering if your legal folks have looked at that and what’s thoughts are about the merit of that?
Pedro J. Pizarro:
Yes. So, let me start with the last one first and Adam Umanoff, our General Counsel is here. Because he -- if you want to add anything, Adam. I think the short answer to that, the legal challenge is we feel very comfortable in the strength of the argument that we made in the couple of court proceedings that I mentioned. And this really goes to the core assumption that the courts have made a decision going back to the [indiscernible] decision that looked at the application of inverse condemnation as that meet essentially to your -- to socialize the cause of this risk across a broad pool of customers and it assumes that utilities had ready recourse to collect those amounts from customers in the case of investor to the CPUC. The significant uncertainty that’s been raised towards that were the San Diego Gas & Electric 2017 decision really challenge that assumption and its one of the core tenets in our arguments in court. So if you’re asking do we feel strongly about the arguments, we feel they have strong merit. The answer is, making clear a yes. Now how -- what the court say with that, that’s a different process. Let me pause there. Adam, anything you would add or is that covered?
Adam S. Umanoff:
Other than given you an honorary law degree, no other comments.
Pedro J. Pizarro:
Okay. And I think -- yes, thank you, Adam. On the timing question, lots of different venues and pieces here always to just kind to recap. We now have the strike force report. We understand that the various members of the strike force team still thinking and engaged etcetera. But I think on the other -- the major report out, -- I have the wildfire commission, my shorthand for the name of the commission continue its work. They have a statutory deadline on July 1st. The governor then challenged them to finish the process earlier. I believe that they’re at a minimum on track to meet their July 1 deadline or potentially coming a little sooner. You have then the challenge that the governor laid out for the legislature to have a package done by July 12, which is clearly an ambitious timeline. I think that it's certainly possible and it's not unreasonable to imagine a scenario where you have concrete recommendations coming out from the wildfire commission that then feed the legislative process and probably some parallel work and starting to develop language. You saw probably the announcement that came out, I believe, last week on the task force in the Senate appointed by the Senate President Pro Tempore, Toni Atkins and chaired by Bill Dodd. So presumably that’s another vehicle for developing language. So there's, I think the scenario that the governor laid out of having all it done by July 12. At the same time, as you pointed out the session goes on for couple more months after that. And so there is certainly the possibility that these complex issues could take longer for drafting and for the negotiations that go on in developing the bills. I will also say it is a more negative scenario, but I want to be transparent about it that in spite of the governor's leadership and timelines that he set, that this wasn’t get done. I think that will be an unfortunate outcome. It's one that if the state needs a speedy resolution of this issues, it's costing customers significantly sort of financial uncertainty on utilities, but I can't sit here and guarantee to you that the state will actually do all this in the timeline of the current legislative session. So we said all along that there's always a possibility that this goes longer, we hope not. But there's a possibility. So that’s the sequence as we see it, Ali. Maybe more detail than you wanted.
Ali Agha:
Great. No, that’s helpful. Thanks, Pedro.
Pedro J. Pizarro:
You bet. Thank you, Ali.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is now open.
Pedro J. Pizarro:
Hey, Julien.
Nicholas Campanella:
Hey, it's Nick Campanella on for Julien.
Pedro J. Pizarro:
Oh, hi, Nick.
Nicholas Campanella:
Hi. Just to be a little clear on the 6% adder, I guess if we get some type of framework from the legislator that allows for a liquidity fund, some type of catastrophe fund. Is that enough to remove the 6% or is this more about an IC6. And if you could just kind of expand on what you’re looking forward to actually bring the outer down?
Pedro J. Pizarro:
I think the short answer is that that was going to be in the details and we need to see actual steps taken before we can answer your question, Nick. Maybe there's slightly longer version of that is, there's a lot of pieces here. We pointed consistently though to the important need to address the issues around defining prudency which we believe is best done by linking at the compliance for CPUC approved wildfire mitigation plans, I mentioned in my remarks the analogy to the energy crisis, that’s how the state reformed its way out of the energy crisis by setting up a very similar structure that has survived very well for today. So that is really job one, right. And then linking cost recovery to that kind of framework. Wildfire fund is an important addition to that, but in our view you really need to solve the core problem. Now what you saw the problem through what we’ve been advocating here, that the framework I just discussed, where you saw that further upstream through maybe changes on the inverse condemnation strict viability standard. You saw that through court action in response to the judicial proceedings that Ali was asking about earlier. Lots of different ways to get there, but we believe you need to solve that core problem of ultimately cost recovery. Now once we see any and all of those steps, we can make judgment calls as to how much of the risk has that mitigated for investors and therefore, how --- what action can we take regarding the 6% adder. It could be one that maybe this is a great package, resolves it and we could actually pull request entirely or might be either it happens more gradually and we take steps along the way.
Nicholas Campanella:
Thanks for that comprehensive answer. I just also want to ask about the insurance. I think you guys mentioned that there's $400 of cost for '19, ultimately some of that could get differed depending on the authorized levels of the GRC. What’s proposed right now versus those costs?
Maria C. Rigatti:
So when we filed our 2018 GRC -- that was back in 2016. We actually -- our program was a little bit different, but the allocation of insurance premium to wildfire policies was for the 2018 year about $75 million. That would then be subject to nutrition mechanism for the subsequent year. So $75 million plus, some sort of escalation for 2019. So it's in that ballpark. And then depending on what’s finally authorized, then the amounts above that subject to our belief that they’re probable of recovery would be deferred into a memo [ph] account that we already have available to us. And we will then go in subsequent to that and then move straight to the commission if they’re reasonable for recovery.
Nicholas Campanella:
Appreciate it. That’s all for me. Thanks.
Pedro J. Pizarro:
Thanks, Mike.
Operator:
Your next question will come from Jonathan Arnold with Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.
Jonathan Arnold:
Good afternoon, guys.
Pedro J. Pizarro:
Hi, there.
Michael Lapides:
Just when I’m looking at slide 9, on the HoldCo financing plan, this may just be the way its laid out, but it makes it look as though the equity that you’re doing at EIX is basically to fund the higher equity layer at SCE and the debt is funding everything else. So that may just be a sort of graphic impression, because when you’re talking about it, it sounds like its more balanced than that.
Maria C. Rigatti:
Yes, so I think you have to put the bar at some place -- the pieces of the bar at some place. I will say, when we start the -- initiating the thought process, we’re thinking about what equity does that you need for the increase in the equity layer and then how much equity you need to provide for that. But you’re right, cash is somewhat fungible. And we’re trying to be flexible not only -- and balance not only in the types of products that we use, but then also the timing. We actually created a plan that gives us that flexibility in terms of timing, that’s why we did the term loan. So things coming in and out, you will see us pay down the term loan at the parent company, contribute the additional equity into SCE, that’s generally we’re trying to balance, flexible and give ourselves the right run way.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay, great. Thank you, Maria. But so taking a step further, as you look forward, and we think that you’re going to continue to invest in rate base growth and that may or may not be other calls on equity at SCE. How should we also think kind of those incremental investments in '20 and '21, would also be financed on a balanced basis or is the incremental HoldCo debt capacity you would look to access, sort of how should we think about the -- taking this financing plan and sort of rolling it forward a bit?
Maria C. Rigatti:
Yes. I think, Jonathan, that we’re really focused on right now solving or addressing the issue around the increased equity layer and the current capital investment needs at SCE. I think as we go forward, a lot of other things have to be taken into consideration before I can answer your question more definitively. Right now we have a lot of cash flow tied up in, for example, insurance. Once we start getting a recovery on that, that will have an impact. We will have to look and see what our 2021 GRC looks like and how much investment we have in there and the levels and the timing of that. The proceedings that our outside the GRC are also very impactful. So I think, as we go forward, we will be able to provide you some more information, but I think right now its early days.
Jonathan Arnold:
So the HoldCo debt, you have some number that is maximum that you can carry there?
Maria C. Rigatti:
Yes, I wouldn’t say a maximum. I would say more around the philosophy. So we’re trying to, as we always have, maintain a strong resilient balance sheet. So that will continue to be one of our objectives. Obviously, there is the -- the current situation in California and people, the credit rating agencies' perception of California plays into that. As we move forward in time as we get more revolution around the wildfire issues, that could change as well. So I think it's a philosophy as much as anything else.
Pedro J. Pizarro:
And Jonathan, just on that, I think it served our investors well that we had that kind of philosophy for many years. And dry powder is a good thing and I think continuing to have that sort of prudent approach at the HoldCo will be part and partial of how we think about this.
Jonathan Arnold:
So it seems the answer to my two questions is kind of depends on the circumstances at the time and how things evolve.
Pedro J. Pizarro:
Like everything in life. Thanks, Jonathan.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. Can I ask one other on a different topic? Is that possible?
Pedro J. Pizarro:
I think we -- make it a quick one here, but yes, multiple questions, Jonathan.
Jonathan Arnold:
When you think about your reg [ph] asset that you did not manage to book on the wildfire charge, is there -- are there certain items that you’re looking forward that might change, that is the stress test proceeding for example critical in that decision.
Maria C. Rigatti:
No. I think Jonathan what we’ve talked about last quarter is objectively verifiable evidence or precedents, if you will. There could be things that come out, we’re just going to evaluate it every quarter. I wouldn’t say there's any one particular thing that’s sort of the go, no go decision on that.
Jonathan Arnold:
Right. That’s really quick at that. Thank you.
Pedro J. Pizarro:
Thanks, Jon.
Operator:
Our last question will come from Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.
Michael Lapides:
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. Just real quick, when I look at the rate base forecast for 2018, the $700 million versus your prior forecast, can you walk me through just the layers of that? Meaning what are the individual components of that? How much is disallowance of capital you’ve already spend versus other changes?
Maria C. Rigatti:
There were a number of things that the commission decided, in the proposed decision in any case, that they did not want to authorize. A lot of it relates to a few infrastructure programs, overhead conductor program, our 4 KV substation elimination program and corporate real estate. So a lot of that is in here. Separate from that, your question about what prior spending as an example was disallowed. If the PD is authorized as it stands today, we’d have approximately $185 million after tax disallowed from prior periods or prior spend. So I think it ranges across those various things, but those are the major point that are affecting rate case.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. And then when I think about going forward rate base, the deltas the incremental $400 million is simply a delta in CapEx?
Maria C. Rigatti:
Yes, it's a program that we are not authorized as we carry them forward due to the attrition mechanism.
Michael Lapides:
Fine. And one last thing. Just can you all remind me in prior rate cases has the commission ordered differed materially from the proposed decision in terms of the rate base amount? And this is all historical looking.
Pedro J. Pizarro:
Yes, we have to give you precise numbers. If somebody has them in the room, but typically you will see its -- typically you will see changes between initial proposed decision and the final. I can tell you this every time, but it's not uncommon to have some level of changes already to the final. And, Michael, we are certainly going to be advocating for that, particularly given some of the core policy things that, I was mentioning earlier in my comments, we will certainly have strong comments about some of the changes we believe are needed.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Thank you, guys. Much appreciate it.
Pedro J. Pizarro:
Thank you, Mike.
Operator:
That was our last question. I will now turn the call back to Mr. Sam Ramraj.
Sam Ramraj:
Well, thank you for joining us today. And please call us if you have any follow-up questions. This concludes the conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
This concludes today’s conference. All participants may disconnect at this time. Thank you again for your participation in today's call.
Operator:
Good afternoon and welcome to the Edison International Fourth Quarter 2018 Financial Teleconference. My name is Caron and I'll be your operator today. [Operator Instructions] Today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Sam Ramraj, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Ramraj, you may begin your conference.
Sam Ramraj:
Thank you, Caron, and welcome, everyone. Our speakers today are President and Chief Executive Officer, Pedro Pizarro; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Maria Rigatti. Also here are other members of the management team. Materials supporting today's call are available at www.edisoninvestor.com. These include our Form 10-Q, prepared remarks from Pedro and Maria, and the teleconference presentation. Tomorrow, we will distribute our regular business update presentation. During this call, we will make forward-looking statements about the outlook for Edison International and its subsidiaries. Actual results could differ materially from current expectations. Important factors that could cause different results are set forth in our SEC filings. Please read these carefully. The presentation includes certain outlook assumptions, as well as reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure. During the question-and-answer session, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. I will now turn the call over to Pedro.
Pedro J. Pizarro:
Thanks, Sam, and good afternoon, everyone. As we review the results for 2018, I would like to reiterate that our thoughts are with all those across the state who are affected by the wildfire crisis. Our company’s number one priority continues to be the safety of our public, our customers and our employees, and we remain committed to supporting our communities affected by these events. Turning to our financial results, Edison International’s core earnings for 2018 were $4.15 per share compared to $4.50 a year ago. As I have mentioned before, comparison of year-over-year results is not particularly meaningful because SCE has not received a decision in its 2018 General Rate Case. For the fourth quarter, EIX reported core earnings of $0.94 per share. This excludes non-core items, mainly a $1.8 billion after-tax charge related to existing and expected claims arising from the wildfire and mudslide events that occurred in SCE’s service territory in 2017 and 2018. I will explain the accounting rationale for this later in my comments, and Maria will cover our overall financial performance in more detail in her remarks. Today, the Board of Directors of Edison International declared its first quarter 2019 common stock dividend of $61.25 cents per share. In making its decision to declare the dividend, the Board again evaluated a broad range of potential negative outcomes pertaining to the wildfires in 2017 and 2018, and the mudslides in Montecito in 2018 and determined that the California law requirements for the declaration were met. The Board’s evaluation took into consideration a broad range of potentially unrecovered wildfire-related costs and financing scenarios, including potential outcomes worse than what are reflected in the charge accrued as of the fourth quarter 2018. Mitigating increased wildfire risk and its related financial impacts continues to be our top priority. Catastrophic wildfires across our state have caused billions of dollars of property damage and taken over a hundred lives. It is evident that the risk conditions in which all of California’s utilities deploy and operate electric infrastructure have changed significantly. From an operational standpoint, SCE has taken substantial steps to reduce the risk of wildfires in our service territory. We are going beyond long-standing industry practices to address the conditions we are facing. The foundation we are laying to mitigate the risk of utility equipment-ignited fires is reflected in several recent regulatory filings. These include our Grid Safety and Resiliency Program that we filed with the Commission last September, the Risk Assessment and Mitigation Phase of our 2021 GRC filed in November, and our proposed Wildfire Mitigation Plan which was filed earlier this month. These filings detailed the near and long-term actions that SCE is taking to significantly reduce the risk of fires starting, and effectively fortify the system against future impacts of climate change. Specifically, SCE’s Wildfire Mitigation Plan focuses on three key areas
Maria C. Rigatti:
Thank you, Pedro and good afternoon, everyone. My comments today will cover fourth quarter and full-year results for 2018 compared to the same period a year ago, our updated capital expenditure forecast, and other financial updates for SCE and EIX. As we’ve communicated to you before, until we receive a decision on the 2018 General Rate Case, we will continue to recognize revenues from CPUC activities largely based on 2017 authorized base revenue requirements with reserves taken for known items including the cost of capital decision and tax reform. Also, consistent with prior quarters, we are providing our SCE key drivers analysis at the prior combined statutory tax rate of approximately 41% for both 2018 and 2017 for comparability purposes. Before we take a look at our core earnings drivers, let me provide a bit more detail regarding the $1.8 billion non-core charge related to the 2017/2018 wildfires and mudslide events that Pedro mentioned earlier. Please turn to page 2. 9 We have recorded a gross charge related to these events of $4.7 billion prior to recoveries and taxes which represents the lower end of a reasonably estimated range of outcomes. We have also recorded a $2 billion insurance receivable and a $135 million regulatory asset related to FERC recovery. The combination of these results in the $1.8 billion after-tax charge. Considering the San Diego WEMA decision and the uncertainty regarding how the CPUC will interpret and apply its prudency standard in wildfire cost-recovery proceedings, we have not at this time recorded a regulatory asset related to CPUC recovery. We will continue to evaluate the probability of recovery based on available evidence, including guidance from the Wildfire Commission and new judicial, legislative and regulatory decisions. Please turn to page 3. For the fourth quarter 2018, Edison International reported core earnings of $0.94 per share, a decline of $0.16 from the same period last year. From the table on the right-hand side, you will see that SCE had a negative $0.14 core EPS variance year-over-year. There are a few items that account for the bulk of this variance. To begin, lower revenues had a negative impact of $0.06 cents. This includes lower CPUC revenue of $0.04 due to the recognition of revenues largely based on 2017 authorized base revenue requirements with reserves for known items and lower FERC and other operating revenue of $0.02. There was also a negative impact of $0.03 due to higher O&M. This is primarily related to increased vegetation management costs. We had a negative impact of $0.04 from higher financing costs due to increased borrowings and higher interest expense on balancing accounts, partially offset by higher AFUDC equity. Finally, increased income tax benefits were largely offset by an increase in property taxes and other expenses. For the quarter, EIX Parent and Other had a negative $0.02 core earnings variance related primarily to two items. First, a negative variance of $0.04 related to a goodwill impairment at Edison Energy. The impairment reflects a shift in the business model since we purchased the companies which make up Edison Energy in 2015 to our more measured proof-of-concept approach. This was partially offset by an income tax benefit of $0.02 primarily related to a reduction in uncertain tax positions that resulted from the settlement of our 1994 through $2.6 California tax audit partially offset by the lower 2018 corporate tax rate on pre-tax loss. Please turn to Page 4. For the full year, Edison International core earnings per share decreased $0.35 from the prior year. This includes core earnings decreases of $0.16 and $0.19 at SCE and EIX Parent and Other, respectively. Significant drivers at SCE include higher O&M expenses of $0.13 related to increased wildfire insurance premiums and vegetation management costs as well as a negative variance of $0.12 cents due to higher net financing costs. These were largely offset by a tax benefit of $0.19, primarily from higher income tax benefits, including true-ups related to the filing of our 2016 and 2017 tax returns. At EIX Parent and Other, the majority of the $0.19 decrease in core earnings was due to the absence of tax benefits in 2018 relative to 2017, largely related to stock-based compensation and federal tax settlements. As I have mentioned previously, earnings comparisons pending a 2018 GRC decision are not meaningful. We expect to record a true-up when we receive a decision and we have established a memo account to track costs. The decision will be retroactive to January 1, 2018. Please turn to Page 5. While we continue to wait for a decision on SCE’s 2018 general rate case, SCE has developed, and is executing against, a capital expenditure plan for 2019 in support of our business objectives. This plan will allow SCE to execute its capital spending program over the three-year GRC period, that is 2018 through 2020, to meet what is ultimately authorized in the decision while minimizing the associated risk of unauthorized spending. Our total 2019 CapEx forecast is $4.5 billion and includes $346 million for wildfire related programs largely related to the GS&RP we filed last year and the Wildfire Mitigation Plan we filed in early February. We have accelerated some activities included in our GS&RP into 2019. This acceleration will primarily target our covered conductor program. We will track this spending through various memorandum accounts and pursue cost recovery through current and subsequent CPUC proceedings. Given the significance of wildfire-related risks and the need for skilled resources to complete activities, SCE may reallocate spending authorized in the 2018 GRC to maximize wildfire mitigation efforts. For 2020, we continue to present our capital forecast at the request level included in our 2018 GRC. While we wait for our 2018 GRC decision, over the long-term, we continue to see SCE investing at least $4 billion per year and adding at least $2 billion per year of rate base for the foreseeable future. As SCE focuses on investments in the grid and resiliency and continues to be a key enabler of California’s ambitious climate change policies. On Page 6, our rate base remains essentially the same from the last forecast and it is still shown at our GRC request levels. I would note that we expect to update our full forecast when we get a proposed decision on the 2018 GRC. On Page 7, you will see our financial assumptions for 2019. As I mentioned in prior quarters, we will not be providing earnings guidance for 2019 until we receive a final decision on the GRC. However, we have laid out some additional information on this page that you may consider as you model 2019 and beyond. This includes, other items that reflect some considerations outside of the simplified rate base model. The approval of the Z-factor filing related to recovery of previously-incurred wildfire insurance premiums will create a benefit of approximately $0.05 per share in the first quarter of 2019. Additionally, we expect energy efficiency incentives of $0.05 for 2019. This includes $0.03 related to a 2018 CPUC approval that was delayed and which we now expect in the first or second quarter of this year. We are still in settlement discussions regarding our 2018 FERC Formula Rate. However, we plan to file a new Formula Rate with an updated cost of capital to reflect the impacts of recent events in California since FERC procedures require a new filing when requesting a rate increase. For EIX Parent and Other, we expect an earnings drag of $0.30 to $0.35 per share. Included in this is approximately one penny per share per month related to EIX operating expenses. The overall increase from last year is primarily due to higher forecasted interest expense driven by higher long-term debt issuances and rates. At Edison Energy, we continue to work towards our target of achieving a break-even run rate for earnings by the end of this year. I now want to provide a few comments on other financial topics. Let me start with our wildfire insurance coverage. Market conditions are more difficult than last year and we continue to see a decline in the number of insurance providers willing to underwrite policies in California. We have also included co-insurance in the structure in order to more effectively obtain coverage. SCE has secured new wildfire-specific insurance coverage of approximately $700 million from early February through the end of May, subject to $10 million of self-insurance and up to $15 million of co-insurance. SCE has also initiated efforts to place coverage for the period starting June 1st and currently has $750 million of wildfire-specific insurance coverage from that date through June 30, 2020, subject to a $10 million of self-insurance and up to $115 million of co-insurance. We will continue our efforts to secure additional coverage in amounts generally in line with previous years for the period June 2019 through June 2020. The 2019 wildfire insurance cost, prior to any regulatory deferrals, would be $321 million for the current policies. Over time, we have worked diligently to maintain a strong and flexible balance sheet. SCE will continue to access the capital markets to support its large investment program. Both SCE’s and EIX’s credit ratings have been negatively impacted as the rating agencies consider the ability of the regulators and legislators to provide a durable framework for wildfire cost recovery. As we work with state and regulatory officials to find a solution to the current problem, SCE will continue to use its first mortgage bond secured debt structure when issuing new debt as well as other options such as commercial paper and term loans to meet short-term requirements. EIX continues to have access to the debt capital markets although currently investors require much higher spreads than were necessary for previous debt issuances. As you are aware, SCE is required to maintain an authorized capital structure under its CPUC jurisdiction and the current authorized equity level is 48% calculated over a rolling 37-month period. As of December 31st, SCE is in compliance with this requirement with a 49.7% average equity ratio. In addition, SCE is required to file an application for waiver if in any month, its actual equity ratio, or spot ratio, falls 1% below its authorized level. Based on the non-cash charge related to wildfires included in the year-end financial statements, our spot ratio has fallen below this level and SCE filed an application notifying the CPUC. The waiver requests exclusion of any equity charges resulting from the 2017 and 2018 wildfires and mudslides as well as any debt issued to finance payment of these claims. We have requested that these adjustments to the calculation of SCE’s regulatory capital structure remain in effect until a determination is made regarding recovery of costs related to these events. While the CPUC reviews the waiver application, SCE is considered in compliance with the capital structure rules and therefore continues to issue debt and make dividends in the ordinary course of business and considering its capital spending and other needs. As discussed, we continue to have significant capital needs, those that will ultimately be authorized in our 2018 GRC as well as additional capital needs related to wildfire prevention and mitigation and programs that support the environmental objectives of the state. Our upcoming Cost of Capital proceeding will be an important venue to demonstrate the critical nature of the work that investor-owned utilities undertake in California and the need to support financially healthy utilities. It is imperative that we maintain a robust capital structure and strengthen our investment grade credit ratings and be positioned to continue to attract capital to support our customers’ needs. We will be evaluating and requesting the appropriate level of equity return and capital structure changes to achieve these objectives. We look forward to giving you an update after our Cost of Capital filing in April. That concludes my remarks.
Sam Ramraj:
Caron, please open the question -- call for questions. As a reminder, we request you to limit yourself to one question and one follow-up, so everyone in line has the opportunity to ask questions.
Operator:
Thank you [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Jonathan Arnold of Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.
Jonathan Arnold:
Good morning -- good afternoon guys.
Pedro J. Pizarro:
Hi, Jonathan.
Maria C. Rigatti:
Hi, Jonathan.
Jonathan Arnold:
Don’t know which way this are. I guess, is it possible, Pedro, can you give us some insight into the background to the taking of this charge today based -- it doesn’t seem to us for where we sit as there is much new information that’s being publicly announced. And so I’m just curious sort of what you know today that you didn’t know last quarter that prompts the charge of this pie?
Pedro J. Pizarro:
Well, Jon, let me start with that and thanks for the question. We tried to provide you a framing of that in both my remarks and Maria's. And let me just sum it up again by saying, we're looking at the totality of the -- not only the events themselves or continuing internal evaluation of the facts, but we're also looking at the number of claims that are being filed, the potential for litigation, litigation history in similar cases. And so when you put it all that together, we determine that we face a potential material liability here and under the accounting rules we felt that it was appropriate to disclose that through the reserve and in this case with the accounting rules, you need to have somebody that is first probable -- and believe it's probable. And secondly, it needs to be estimable. In this case, we believe we can estimate the number we provided today as the lower end of the range for potential outcomes. To be honest with you, I think we indicated this, we will be very hard pressed to try and estimate an upper end of the range. And so we provided investors the combination of the disclosure with the reserve in it as well as disclosure that says that actual results could be different. Importantly, and we covered this in our comments, but just to make sure that the folks understood the rationale on this one, there's the gross exposure, the gross of total reserve, there's a netting out from that of insurers, we are confident in our ability to access our $2 billion through our insurance policies. And then we also netted out FERC recovery amounts. But importantly, we did not net out -- we were not able to create a regulatory asset for CPUC recoveries. And as I explained, this is really due to the deep uncertainty that was created by the CPUC's flawed decision on the San Diego WEMA case. So given that that is the one major data point that we have here in California in terms of how the CPUC would handle cases and the fact that they essentially adopted a perfection standard as opposed to a prudency standard, they allocated zero cost recoveries in San Diego instead of some proportionate cost recovery based on a more detail examination of level of prudency. Given all of that, we did not feel it was appropriate to record a regulatory asset for CPC recoveries offsetting some portion of the overall liability. So that’s how we ended up with a $1.8 billion after-tax charge. Maria, I don't know if there's anything you would add to that?
Maria C. Rigatti:
No.
Pedro J. Pizarro:
No?
Jonathan Arnold:
Perfect. That's very, very helpful. Thank you, Pedro. And for my follow-up, could I just ask, what happens from a practical standpoint if the legislature and/or the CPUC don't move quickly enough to convince the rating agencies to keep your investment grade ahead of next fire season? Can we -- could you just review what the implications of a downgrade would be if it came to that.
Pedro J. Pizarro:
Jon, I will kick it off and sure Maria will have more here. But from a rating agency perspective, rating agencies as you know are independent, they’ve been publishing their views on the subject. I think most recently S&P's report was frankly fairly pointed about, in their view which we share, the need for action at the state level to reform the overall liability framework. And they indicated a strong likelihood of further potential downgrades if there isn't reforms at the state level in the near-term, which will take, I mean, months, not years. And so, I will let Maria talk about the implications where we -- to be downgraded below investment grade. It becomes an issue of cost. We believe there is access there, but certainly at a very different cost ultimately due to the consumer. Just before turning it over to Maria, little commenting on what happens down in Sacramento, it feel like I’m repeating myself in terms of prior calls, but once again, it feels like it's early days later down in the card, but it's early days again, right. We now have the Wildfire Commission that has just been formed and had its first meeting, as I mentioned in my comments, we have the Governor having created his Strike Team. Those are advisors to the Strike Team getting organized. You've seen the comments that the governor has made. It seems like there is an understanding, certainly in the part of the Governor and his administration that this is a substantial issue, not just for utilities, but clearly to the broader objectives in the California economy. And so it feels like the case for action is certainly being articulated. But how that translates into specific recommendations, particularly along the areas that we are stressing leading to reform that the cost recovery framework, and also looking at additional potential vehicles like potential for our Wildfire Insurance Fund or needs for securitization, potential exposures of the like, lot of devils in those details and we will be very engaged, but it is difficult to handicap at this point when -- specifically where that might be addressed in Sacramento. Maria, maybe on the implications?
Maria C. Rigatti:
Sure. So, Jonathan, obviously there is the cost issue associated with the downgrade and [indiscernible] market and see where costs would go at lower ratings. I would note that for SCE and also it's going to bleed through into their cost of capital filing because as their debt costs increase that's going to be part of the filing that we make and ultimately demonstrate to the CPUC and that will -- at some point in time when that case is concluded, it would then flow back through to their cost of capital. So there is a connection there. I think the other thing that people usually are considering when they ask about implications of a downgrade would be collateral posting. We have disclosure around -- we had disclosure around that for a while. If we get downgraded below investment grade under our PPAs, I'm going to say, there is about a $25 million impact. Obviously, that's somewhat related to where prices are at the time, but that's at the point in time that we did the calculations that $25 million. There is another amount that we would have proposed around some of our environmental remediation, a few other cats and dogs, but I’m going to really round numbers; it's about $100 million thereabouts. So that's -- I think those are the two primary cost implications of a downgrade.
Jonathan Arnold:
Perfect. Thanks. Thank you for the very cool answers.
Pedro J. Pizarro:
Thanks, Jonathan.
Maria C. Rigatti:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Praful Mehta from Citigroup. Your line is now open.
Pedro J. Pizarro:
Hi, Praful.
Praful Mehta:
Hi. So maybe just to get this out of the way, dividends, is there -- if there is no wildfire litigation that’s done this year, but there is also no wildfire. There is no risk of dividends at this point as we understand it or are there any other scenarios if there is a downgrade that could impact dividends in anyway?
Pedro J. Pizarro:
Praful, I think you will -- sorry, this is going to sound repetitive, but once again, the Board took a look at a broad range of potential negative outcomes and determined that we met all the conditions to continue to issue this dividend. So we told you before, we never make that decision until the quarter when we make it for that quarter's dividend installment. But I think you should read into the comments today that once again the Board looked at a broad spectrum of potential bad outcomes and feel comfortable with this next dividend.
Praful Mehta:
Got you. Fair enough, that’s super clear. And then, secondly, in terms of the charge, I know that the language says lower-end and you've highlighted a couple of times of the charges, the lower end of the range that you've looked at. Is there any color you can provide on what other elements that would make it go up to the higher end or -- brought in the upper end of your range of outcomes that could increase the charge? Any color on that would be helpful.
Maria C. Rigatti:
So, Praful, I think as Pedro noted earlier, we actually can't estimate a high-end of the range. I think the accounting rules are pretty clear. You obviously -- we as an organization did look at a lot of different factors, looked at a lot of different components, did check data points across the board from its vailable from the insurance commissioner to what we're seeing in our litigation. But it is as per the accounting rules, the lower end of a reasonably estimated range of outcomes. I think that's as much as we can share with you. We went through a diligent process, but that’s the evaluation at the time.
Praful Mehta:
Fair enough. And just one -- last clarification, on the regulatory asset point that you mentioned where you're not creating regulatory asset for any recovery related to the charge that you've taken. You highlighted the WEMA case, but since the WEMA case the Senate Bill 901 did expand what the CPUC can do in terms of review and gave them broader scope to allow for recovery. Is your -- should we read into that that you believe that the Senate Bill 901's broader provisions aren't sufficient and there is still enough uncertainty that you didn't feel comfortable taking the regulatory asset related to the charge.
Maria C. Rigatti:
So Praful -- so we rely on objectively verifiable evidence and very heavily emphasizes prior precedents. So the WEMA cases is a very strong prior precedent. I think what I noted in my prepared remarks was that we will continue to evaluate the situation based on additional information as it becomes available whether that’s from the Wildfire Cost Recovery Commission, other legislative or judicial regulatory proceedings, etcetera. But I think there is a very strong emphasis when you come to these conclusions on actual precedents.
Praful Mehta:
Got you. Super helpful. Thank you, guys.
Pedro J. Pizarro:
See you Praful.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael Lapides of Goldman Sachs. Sir, your line is now open.
Michael Lapides:
Hey, guys. Thank you for taking my question. Real quickly, can you talk to us about the status -- Pedro, you referenced the litigation regarding inverse condemnation in the application. Can you give us an update regarding the status of that litigation, where it stands in the process and what are next steps from here?
Adam S. Umanoff:
Why don't I take this one, Pedro? This is Adam Umanoff, the General Counsel. We have made motions in most of our wildfire cases, challenging the application of inverse condemnation. By and large those notions have not been granted by the trial courts. We currently have pending motions in two Liberty fire related cases. The Liberty fire was a smaller fire in our service territory. We appealed denials of our motions in the Thomas Fire, but those appeals are discretionary. The appellate court can, with or without reason, accept the review or reject it. And to date, no appellate court has taken a review, discretionary review. So we have not had an opportunity to take these issues up to the appellate courts for review.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. And can we -- is there a scenario where this winds up in federal court or is this primarily in your view, a state court, state jurisdiction and it's simply a question of will a certain case -- any of the cases, your case, the San Diego Gas & Electric 2007 wildfire related one, will any of those actually get picked up by the Supreme Court, and we get clarity of that -- the state Supreme Court and we get clarity at that level regarding inverse condemnation?
Adam S. Umanoff:
So for appeals to be heard by the appellate courts is a matter of right, as opposed to a discretionary appeal. You have to have a verdict, a jury deciding that inverse damages are payable. We are not in that position. SCE is not in that position. I will note that in one of the cases that PG&E has, there is a current verdict, directed verdict on inverse, which if they get relief from the stay and the bankruptcy, could be appealed. Ultimately that appeal would have to be heard by the appellate court. You led off by asking, can you get into federal court? As a practical matter, in our cases, the path to the federal court is largely through appeals up to the California Supreme Court, which if unsuccessful would give you an opportunity to appeal to the US Supreme Court.
Michael Lapides:
Meaning, and your appeal would be some things along the line of a takings clause related case or something like that?
Adam S. Umanoff:
Yes, we have a number of legal arguments, the policy argument of -- under the Takings Clause is one. We have a due process argument as well. The bottom line is, we believe firmly as a matter of the principle underlining inverse condemnation that you must be able to socialize broadly, inverse costs if the standard of inverse condemnation is applied to create liability. And because we cannot automatically socialize those costs, but rather we have to get approval of our regulator, we think it is unfair under various theories for that -- the inverse condemnation standard to be applied.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Thank you. Much appreciated.
Pedro J. Pizarro:
Thanks, Michael. Operator Thank you. Our next question comes from Ali Agha of SunTrust. Sir, your line is now open.
Pedro J. Pizarro:
Hi Ali.
Ali Agha:
Thank you. Hey, good afternoon, Pedro. First question, Pedro, as you outlined there are a number of initiatives the governor has talked; the Task Force, there is the bills and the legislature etcetera. From your vantage point, what do you think is the most important and likely path through this process? Is it that Commission that's been set up and looking at that, I mean what’s the confidence that something does take place before the end of the session, which I believe is end of August, correct me there, but just to understand how do we tracking this from your vantage point?
Pedro J. Pizarro:
So, thanks for the question, Ali. Technically, the legislative sessions is actually a two-year session, so going into next year. Difficult for us to handicap again, specific pathways or specific [indiscernible] release around them. You have heard consistently from our Company and you will continue to hear a level of confidence that over time in the future, this will be resolved because the state needs financially healthy utilities to keep the lights on in the world's fifth largest economy and to help reduce greenhouse gas emissions in order to something climate change. So we continue to see that as the ultimate proof point that there will be high confidence of ultimate reforms. As you've heard from me, probably over the last year, 1.5, while I have that personal sense of confidence, I cannot translate that into a handicapping of, and therefore it will happen through this vehicle by this date. And I think that’s where we remain. The Wildfire Commission will be a very important vehicle. I think there's a number of quality appointments to that and they've had their first meeting and they're setting a process and it seems like they're setting up the right kind of scope for the questions that that Commission needs to address. It's been encouraging to hear the governor talk about trying to accelerate the timeline earlier than the July timeline that was provided in SB 901. Ultimately, legislative action may be needed. And so, Wildfire Commission will make recommendations to the Legislature, but then the legislature needs to pick up them. The governor will need to provide leadership in order to frame that for the legislature. And the fact that he has created a Strike Team and they've staffed it up both with folks internally led by the Chief of Staff. So this is really being led at the highest level of the Governor's administration and with a number of outside advisors. Those are all good indications that this administration is taking this seriously, and looking at their range of things that need to be done. We talked earlier about some of the things that we are -- we believe are important, probably first and foremost among those is fixing, resolving the issue with the liability framework for investor-owned utilities. And I shall -- I would say even for utilities more broadly because the municipals also face exposure here. So it's probably about all I can say, I'm not sure I've given you any new data points, maybe a little bit from framing around, there are multiple pieces of the puzzle here that will be important and it does just start with leadership from the Governor and I think his early signals have been encouraging.
Ali Agha:
But, just to clarify that -- thank you for that, Pedro. I mean is it fair to say logically that nothing concrete probably happens until after the Wildfire Commission recommendations are in?
Pedro J. Pizarro:
I don't want to give you anything -- that firm in conclusive because I do think anything could happen. Certainly one path would be that the Wildfire Commission makes recommendations and then you have the legislative process. On the other hand, you've seen the Strike Team that the Governor created have -- in fact the Governor mentioned in his State of the State address, a 60-day timeline and with 60 days that's about half of the time that the legislature allocated to the Wildfire Commission's process. So, we have to see what the Governor develops in terms of proposals in which I would speculate would include vehicles for those proposals. Maybe one final point in all this is that, we do have the issue in the state right now and impacts the state as a whole of the PG&E bankruptcy and one of the tenets of Chapter 11 is that the debtor needs to have a plan of reorganization that will create sufficient confidence that the bidder won't find itself in Chapter 11 within a short time period. We believe that, not only do we, as Edison need reform of this framework, we believe it will be integral to PG&E having a successful point of reorganization themselves. So I think that does add to the imperative here for the state.
Ali Agha:
Great. And then second question, you talked about the charge, you talked about the fact that your ratio is currently a spot level below the right level and that this is sort of the lower end of outcomes. When in your thinking does equity -- on equity needs, external equity needs come into it. You've talked about a fair amount of debt and so on, but when are you thinking equity needs to come into the equation?
Pedro J. Pizarro:
So, Ali, [indiscernible] accounting there because that second question felt like number three or four, but just having a little fun with you. I think, Maria commented on the fact that the cost of capital proceeding will be a very good frame in place to think about the overall capital structure.
Maria C. Rigatti:
Yes, I think Ali, obviously there is a lot of stuff going on in the state. There is all the things that we've just been talking about in terms of the wildfires and when that will be resolved. But we have a lot of other unknowns that are coming out. We're going to get our TRC decision. We have capital requirements related to proceeding, they're actually separate and apart from our GRC. So as we are getting that information we will be able to provide a more fulsome response, but in particular, in our cost of capital proceeding, we would expect that we would be able to share more information with you. We're developing that right now. It's going to be filed at the end of April. And I think, that that would be a good point at which to continue the discussion.
Pedro J. Pizarro:
Thanks, Ali. Appreciate it.
Ali Agha:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith of Bank of America. Your line is now open.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey, good afternoon, everyone.
Pedro J. Pizarro:
Hi there.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey. So, I wanted to follow-up on this waiver you all are seeking with respect to capital structure. Just wanted to understand what does that involve? I suppose it's ultimately to the extent to which it does get approved, how do you come to them with the plan on improving that to get back to authorize equity over time? What are the tools at-hand there? And also what are the consequences if they don't approve the waiver. I just want to understand that as well. And especially, how that waiver works with respect to the charge, if there is any latitude, if they don't too?
Maria C. Rigatti:
Okay. So, I will say that the charge is not a CPUC issue. It's not a waiver issue. The charge related to our GAAP accounting. So put that to the side, right. The waiver is -- and we filed it so that's out there and I think the Commission's looks at it at this point right now. But the way that’s structured, if you think about the fact that our spot equity ratio is more than 1% below our authorized in this level and that’s because frankly, we have a charge, but we don't have a corresponding CPUC regulatory asset. And our discussion in our application with the Commission is that, you should disregard both the charge and any financing associated with the charge, debt financing to pay claims, until we get through a proceeding that would then determine our ability to recover that through rate. So I think when you think about the waiver, it's really about -- the initial point of the waiver is that we have an uncertainty due to this WEMA decision that doesn't permit us to book a regulatory asset. So we are asking for, I will say, a period of time, until we get a decision on that whereby we would just exclude the calculation from our charge -- the charge from our calculation rather. So I think that's one. I think, what does the commission do in the meantime as they're reviewing application and reviewing a waiver, we were in compliance with the plan. If you look at our 37 month average -- weighted-average equity ratio, it's 49.7%. So we're still actually in compliance with the peace of the authorized capital structure or the tenant of the authorized capital structure that's actually applicable. That's the piece we have to comply with 37 month average. This is more of an -- this -- I would say falls more into the context, I noted that -- I notice to the Commission. And then, as we get through that process and they determine yes, we will take your application. Okay, we will continue on. If at some point they determine that they do not want to accept our application, then we will have to see are we still in compliance with the 37 month average. And if we are not, typically what would happen if you would then provide a plan to the Commission as to how you would get back into compliance. There is a lot of other moving pieces at the same time, I referred to our cost of capital proceeding just a few minutes ago. So there is going to be a lot of things that happen in there, before we get to the point at which the Commission is going to need a plan from us.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. All right. Excellent. And then just coming back to some of the nuances on the charge specifically and the allocation, just on the FERC allocation, how should we think about the percentage there? Should we take that on the notional 47 or on some kind of netted basis? And then, also just within that, the charge itself is, I know it's the low end, but what is reflected even in that low-end in terms of subrogation claims or assumptions on settlements etcetera. I just want to make sure we understand that a little bit more specifically here, beyond just the insurance netting.
Maria C. Rigatti:
So when you think about the gross charge basically, before you would recover from your customers, first you would get recovery from all the other third parties. So in this case, insurance and then the FERC regulatory assets is really based on -- you allocate the FERC based on your labor allocator that you use for, more generally speaking, when you are separating cost into the FERC and CPUC jurisdiction. So that’s how I would think about the FERC asset. And then as to other things that went into our estimate of the charge, I think it's just kind of that’s what we said before. We looked at all the information that we have available, whether it's from the Insurance Commissioner or whether it's through the process of litigation and we make a determination based on the risks that we see in litigation, prior experiences that we either had or observed around settling and things like that, and that's how we came to the conclusion.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
It's roughly 3% of the growth?
Maria C. Rigatti:
Are you taking about FERC?
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Yes.
Maria C. Rigatti:
5%.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Thank you all.
Operator:
That was the last question. I will now turn the call back to Mr. Sam Ramraj.
Sam Ramraj:
Thank you for joining us today. And please call us if you have any follow-up questions. This concludes the conference call and you may now disconnect.
Executives:
Sam Ramraj - Edison International Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International Adam S. Umanoff - Edison International
Analysts:
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc. Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
Operator:
Good afternoon and welcome to the Edison International Third Quarter 2018 Financial Teleconference. My name is Ash and I'll be your operator today. Today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Sam Ramraj, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Ramraj, you may begin your conference.
Sam Ramraj - Edison International:
Thank you, Ash, and welcome, everyone. Our speakers today are President and Chief Executive Officer, Pedro Pizarro; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Maria Rigatti. Also here are other members of the management team. Materials supporting today's call are available at www.edisoninvestor.com. These include our Form 10-Q, prepared remarks from Pedro and Maria, and the teleconference presentation. Tomorrow, we will distribute our regular business update presentation. During this call, we will make forward-looking statements about the outlook for Edison International and its subsidiaries. Actual results could differ materially from current expectations. Important factors that could cause different results are set forth in our SEC filings. Please read these carefully. The presentation includes certain outlook assumptions, as well as reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure. During the question-and-answer session, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. I will now turn the call over to Pedro.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Well, thanks a lot, Sam, and good afternoon everyone. Third quarter core earnings were $1.56 per share, $0.12 higher than the same period last year. This was mainly due to the regulatory deferral of certain O&M costs and tax benefits at SCE, partially offset by lower tax benefits at EIX Parent and Other. Please remember this comparison is not particularly meaningful because SCE he has not received a decision in its 2018 General Rate Case. Maria will provide more detail in her remarks. As we continue to wait on proposed decisions and rulings from key proceedings, I would like to update you on some significant events that occurred in the third quarter. On the legislative front, during the 2018 session, we advocated for reforms to mitigate the risk of catastrophic wildfires and fairly allocate financial responsibility among the multiple causes which contribute to wildfires. We focused on four key principles. The first was the establishment of an objective of wildfire management plan to guide system investments and new operating protocols. This would create more transparency and clarity with regard to prudency. The second principle was reform of inverse condemnation to transition from strict liability regardless of fault to a reasonableness standard. The third principle was reforming the current cost recovery structure at the CPUC to incorporate the concept that disallowance must be proportionate to the utility's contribution to a fire. Finally we emphasize the continued importance of financially healthy utilities to meet California's ambitious climate change policies. With the end of the 2018 legislative session, I wanted to briefly review the key actions taken. Senate Bill 901 was the most significant wildfire policy bill signed this year. We appreciate the legislature's attention to this critical and complex issue. Climate change has resulted in long-term drought conditions that weaken and kill trees due to bark beetle infestation and more severe weather events. At the same time, dry vegetation increases fuel on the ground which increases the risks of devastating wildfires. SB 901 includes many elements related to vegetation management and land use practices that will help mitigate this risk. Beyond that, the bill includes four key elements
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Thank you, Pedro. Good afternoon, everyone. My comments today will cover the third quarter 2018 results compared to the same period a year ago and other financial updates for EIX and SCE. As we have communicated to you before, until we receive a decision on the 2018 General Rate Case, we will continue to recognize revenues from CPUC activity largely based on 2017 authorized base revenue requirements with reserves taken for known items including the cost of capital decision and Tax Reform. Also consistent with prior quarters, we are providing our SCE key driver analysis at the prior combined statutory tax rate of approximately 41% for both 2018 and 2017 for comparability purposes. Therefore, the effects of Tax Reform will largely be isolated so that we can focus on the underlying financial and operational drivers of the business. Let's begin with a look at our core earnings drivers. Please turn to page 3. For the third quarter 2018, Edison International reported core earnings of $1.56 per share, up $0.12 over the same period last year. From the table on the right-hand side, you will see that SCE had a positive $0.19 core EPS variance year-over-year. This variance was driven by $0.08 of lower operation and maintenance costs and $0.18 of income tax benefits versus the same period in the prior year. The lower operation and maintenance expense is mainly due to the regulatory deferral of incremental line clearing and wildfire insurance costs. Higher income tax benefits were primarily related to the favorable impact of the lower 2018 tax rate on higher pre-tax income and true-ups related to the filing of our 2016 and 2017 tax returns. The key EPS drivers table for SCE shows other smaller contributing items. For the quarter, EIX Parent and Other had a negative $0.07 per share core earnings variance. This was largely due to a $0.5 negative variance at EIX Parent due to the absence of tax benefits from the same period last year and the impact of the lower 2018 tax rate resulting in a lower tax shield. Please turn to page 4. I'm not going to review the year-to-date financial results in detail, but the earnings analysis is largely consistent with the third quarter results, except for higher operation and maintenance costs as compared to the same period last year. The negative variance shown in the year-to-date period is primarily related to the net impact of costs that are not, at this point, being deferred into a regulatory asset. You may recall from the last earnings call that based on the outcome of the PG&E WEMA, we expected to be allowed to track our own incremental wildfire costs, including wildfire insurance premiums beginning at our April 3 application date. Yesterday, we received a proposed decision in our WEMA application that does allow us to start tracking costs as of our application date. This proposed decision is subject to CPUC approval and these costs will ultimately be subject to a reasonableness review. As we discussed last quarter, SCE forecasted expenses of $92 million for liability insurance in its GRC for the 2018 Test Year. Approximately 80% is related to wildfire insurance. Overall, for 2018, premiums for the wildfire insurance we have obtained are approximately $237 million. In the third quarter, cumulative expenses for wildfire insurance for the period following our application date exceeded the Test Year 2018 amounts. As a result, we began to defer wildfire insurance costs. As I have said previously, earnings comparisons pending a 2018 GRC decision are not meaningful. We expect to report true-up when we receive a proposed decision. Once a proposed decision is issued, there is a regulatory requirement for a 30-day review and comment period before any final decision can be voted out. We continue to expect a proposed decision by year-end, but based on the current CPUC meeting calendar, any proposed decision will need to be issued by November 13 in order to receive a final decision this year. As you know, we have established a memo account to track costs and the decision will be retroactive to January 1, 2018. Please turn to page 5. In total, our SCE capital expenditures remained unchanged for the quarter on an aggregate basis. As a reminder, while 2019 and 2020 CPUC jurisdictional capital expenditures remain at the GRC request level, our 2018 capital expenditures aligned with our work execution plan for this year. There are two items to note related to our capital spending plans. First, as we discussed previously, in May we received the final decision approving a $356 million medium- and heavy-duty vehicle transportation electrification program, of which $242 million is capital. We have now incorporated these expenditures into our forecast. The majority of that program's spend falls outside our forecast period; however, there is approximately $100 million of cumulative capital spending and an associated rate base increase of approximately $80 million through 2020. Offsetting most of the near-term transportation electrification spending are adjustments to our FERC spending profile. During the quarter, we received a final decision on the Alberhill System Project. This decision holds the proceeding open and directs SCE to submit supplemental information on the project, including details of demand and load forecasts, and possible alternatives to the proposed project. We continue to believe the project as proposed is needed to serve forecasted local area demand and to increase reliability and operating flexibility. Given the ongoing analysis, we have deferred spending on the Alberhill System Project outside our forecast period. Other projects that are not in our capital forecast include the proposed $760 million Charge Ready II application of which approximately $560 million is capital spending and our recently proposed $582 million Grid Safety and Resiliency application of which approximately $400 million is capital spending. We continue to work with the CPUC on these two proceedings and will update our forecast as necessary. Last, we expect to update our full forecast when we get a proposed decision on the 2018 GRC. On page 6, rate base has remained largely the same except for a slight increase in 2020 related to the increase in capital spending from the medium- and heavy-duty vehicle transportation electrification education program, offset by FERC changes. On page 7, you'll see our financial assumptions for 2018. We have laid out a few key items on this page that you should consider as you model 2018 and beyond. As a reminder, the information we provide on this slide reflects our new combined statutory tax rate of approximately 28%. Most of the information on this page has remained unchanged since last quarter. We do provide more detail regarding incremental wildfire insurance expenses, although we continue to expect our regulatory deferral to be $0.30 per share for the year. Additionally, we no longer expect to receive energy efficiency incentives in 2018 due to a delay in the regulatory approval process. We now expect the incentives to be awarded in the first quarter 2019 and will update you further when we issue our 2019 EPS guidance. I want to provide a few additional comments on other financial topics. At SCE, as of September 30, our average common equity component of total capitalization was 50%. During the third quarter of 2018, SCE file, and the CPUC made effective, a change to the calculation of the common equity component of SCE's capital structure moving from a 13-month to a 37-month weighted average basis. This corresponds to the standard period between cost of capital allocations. The 50% I noted reflects this change. We continue to maintain a strong balance sheet at both the holding company and SCE. We also have the flexibility of these entities to obtain both short- and long-term debt while we continue to evaluate options as we work through uncertainty around the wildfire liability and cost recovery, await the 2018 General Rate Case decision and consider other requested capital programs such as Charge Ready II. We continue to effectively access the capital markets to fund our rate base growth and other operational needs, while we also manage through the legislative, legal, regulatory, and operational solutions required to address the California wildfire issue. However, relative borrowing costs remain higher than we have experienced prior to the 2017 wildfires and will likely be further impacted by credit downgrades by Fitch and Moody's during the third quarter, which means increased costs to our customers. That concludes my remarks.
Sam Ramraj - Edison International:
Operator, please open the call for questions. As a reminder, we request you to limit yourself to one question and one follow-up so everyone in line has the opportunity to ask questions.
Operator:
Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session of today's conference. Speakers, our first question comes from Ali Agha from SunTrust. Your line is now open.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
Thank you. Good afternoon.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hi, Ali.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Hi.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
Hi. Pedro, first question, as you mentioned you have an ongoing internal wildfire investigation. And I just wanted to be clear, during your own internal investigation, have you found any procedural lapse or any other negligence on the part of your utility?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
So, Ali, I think as I mentioned in my remarks this is an ongoing investigation and we're still missing crucial pieces of evidence including the equipment that CAL FIRE removed and we have not been able to access. So, we really don't have any conclusions that we can share in terms of causation of what happened. We know as we shared today that our equipment played a role in the Koenigstein Road ignition point, but that's all we've been able to conclude at this point, and we don't have any further conclusions on causation itself.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
Okay. And my second question, I also want to just clarify something from your opening remarks. You mentioned that you do anticipate to have material losses for the Thomas Fire and I want to clarify, that is before you assume any cost recovery, or is that assuming the final impact to Edison post any cost recovery, et cetera?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Yeah. We wanted to signal to investors that we expect we will incur losses in the end; however, we just can't estimate what those might be right now. And you mentioned some of the reasons that we can't estimate them. I mean, just maybe dialing it back and going through the whole chain of things that will add up to a net exposure at the end of the day; first, we have just the final information in terms of claims, right. We're still getting claims through the legal process, so that's where exposure in a sense begins. We also then have the information that is still being developed on what happened, right. And so today we shared one element that we now felt comfortable sharing, but we need to get into an understanding of what role – what things led to the actual cause of the event. As we go through the legal process, remember this will be litigation right? So litigation itself will create some limits in terms of what we can share as we go through the process and defend the company. But as we go through that process, what legal theories end up being found relevant by the court will matter. Is it inverse condemnation and the negligence approach, et cetera. Then we get to the fact that oftentimes these kind of cases don't end up going to final judgment but do end up settling, right. And so our exposure if we end up settling would be impacted by the balance of settlements, so the discount factor; as you often see discount factors in settlements in other cases. And then finally, there's the question of CPUC cost recovery, which we would expect we'd be seeking cost recovery, but that would be a long process in and of itself; a process that typically happens after we've been through the bulk of the litigation or settlement progress and have a better understanding of what unrecovered amounts there may be beyond our insurance. So sorry to be a little more winded there, but I feel maybe helpful for you and for other investors on the line to understand that there's a whole sequence of events that will ultimately leave us with a final exposure. Today, we're saying, we do expect that we'd end up with a material exposure, but we're not able to estimate or provide a reasonable estimate of what that could be.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
I understand. Thank you very much.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thanks, Ali.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Praful Mehta from Citigroup. Your line is open.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hey, Praful.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Thanks. Thanks so much. Hi, guys. I guess just drilling down a little bit more into this wildfire point. Is there, at this point, any view on the split of liability between the two ignition points? As in, will there be an ability to do that or do you think the fire is so blended together that in the end, the liabilities were kind of all – kind of get capped into one broader fire?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
I think it's early to say. In some of the – maybe to echo some of the comments I made earlier. There is a lot of analysis that will take place, and then there will also be the going through the litigation process. Let me just point on one example the analysis that would be relevant here and that's fire progression, right? And what that means is, we're saying here that we are aware of at least two ignition points. We talked about two that we are aware of in Koenigstein and Anlauf Canyon. Those are somewhat removed from each other, right? So you can imagine that out of Koenigstein, there would have been some damage that ultimately would likely be attributed exclusively to Koenigstein because it happened within its near vicinity before the two fires merged, right? Likewise, they might be damaged. It would be clearly attributable to the ignition at Anlauf Canyon because it would have been in its proximity. Fire progression that modeling that study that we're looking at right now just to point to one element here, looks at how did those two ignition points and the fires that emanated from them, how do they end up merging and to what extent is it clear, if it is, that if you then look at any point downstream as it were later on in the progression of the fire can one allocate responsibility to one or the other ignition points or whether it's exclusive (00:30:13) responsibility or whether it's a proportional responsibility based on how that fire may have progressed over time. That's a very complicated science. It's one of the things that we are looking at and that I mentioned. But the results of that would be certainly one relevant element to answer your question of whether if ultimately there'll be a clear demarcation in terms of the responsibility for the overall fire damages between the two or more points. A little long winded there as well by just trying to illustrate how complicated this is, Praful, and that's one of the relevant factors that we and we expect plaintiffs also will be looking at in litigation.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Thanks, Pedro, and appreciate the complexity, so helpful color. And just in that context, again, mudslides, would that also then have the same logic, you will look at the progression and see which kind of point was close or tied to the mudslides and link liability with that?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Well, I think that's an even more fundamental question with the mudslides, which is to what extent will expert testimony establish that whether the mudslides were indeed catalyzed or influenced or impacted by the fires or whether those mudslides might have happened in any case given the torrential rains that took place in the period immediately preceding them. So we don't have conclusions there. But as you can imagine, our evaluation, our analysis is looking at the number of factors that may have preceded and potentially impacted the mudslides. Now, to the extent that fires may be shown to be a factor, and again we – this is just an open question, at least for us, but if they were shown to be a factor, then I think that fire progression analysis could then be relevant in terms of looking all the way upstream at which ignition point may have had an impact on that or whether both ignition point had an impact but at different relative levels. Does that – I know we say question and one follow-up, but that's complex. Let me just ask any – do you have any clarification needed on that, or does that make sense?
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
It made sense to me, but I'm sure others will have follow-ups, but I'll allow for others to come back and ask questions and I'll come back in queue. Thanks so much, Pedro.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Great. Thanks, Praful.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is now open.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hi there, Julien?
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Hey, good afternoon. Hey. So I'll take Praful up on that, perhaps, can you elaborate a little bit with respect to what's your understanding is
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Let me take an initial shot and Adam Umanoff, our General Counsel, may want to add here. In terms of your first question, I don't think we are able to opine further beyond the disclosure we made today. I'll just stick to the point that we made in the disclosures that we are now – based on the progress we've made in our evaluation with the information that we have, we can now say with a greater degree of certainty that our equipment was involved in Koenigstein. I don't think we have commented on other underlying factors and in fact, as I said earlier, the whole cause of the fire, what may have led our equipment to end up becoming a factor is something that we're still reviewing and we need, for example, to obtain access to our equipment that's being held by CAL FIRE before we can have a final determination. So I think that's all I can say about that one, Julien, on the point of other cases of negligence, Adam, you want to pipe in here?
Adam S. Umanoff - Edison International:
So, Julien, I think as you probably know and we've certainly disclosed previously, there are various theories under which a plaintiff could seek recovery for damages caused by a wildfire. In the case of inverse condemnation claims, all the plaintiff has to show is that our equipment substantially caused the damage. A negligence claim is very different. In a negligence claim, the plaintiff needs to show that we breached our standard of care, which is generally we have to operate as a reasonable and prudent operator of our equipment that we design, operate, and maintain the equipment reasonably. A negligence case will involve a dispute. Plaintiffs will argue that we were negligent – we didn't reasonably design, operate, and maintain equipment. We will defend based upon our claims that we did. And most of these cases involve expert testimony, experts on either side, the defendant and the plaintiff arguing the case as to whether or not the conduct was or was not negligent. Does that help?
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Sure. And then with regards to – as a follow-up here on the memo account that you talked about for the $407 million of capital for the resiliency, can you talk about the timing that your expectations there? I mean, is your expectation there in filing for the memo that this could happen fairly rapidly, akin to what you've seen with the WEMA?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
We were – Maria may have more to add here, but we – certainly, we're hoping that we can get a determination on the memo account establishment in the near term. I'm thinking we have proposed a schedule, that schedule that we proposed would have had a final decision on the final – the full program including the two-way balancing account by I believe August of next year. And I think as part of that schedule, the timing for the memo account would have been within, say, the end of this year or so. Maria, anything to add there or...?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
No, I think that's it, Pedro.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Great. Thank you, all.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thanks, Julien.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Jonathan Arnold from Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hi, Jonathan.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Good afternoon, guys. I think the – I have one question I just have – has been coming up is when you guys say that you feel you might have or you'll likely have material losses, that – you're not implying that you think that there's negligence, right? It could have occurred via inverse condemnation or negligence, doesn't really matter once you've decided your asset was the substantial cause, you probably will have a loss of one kind or another, is that...? (00:37:31)
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Yeah. And just to simplify, what we're saying is we expect we'll have some kind of loss that will be material. However, we're not commenting on how large that could be because I said and also Adam's comments were relevant to this, we'll be going into a litigation process that will include litigating the theory under which we are found liable and then probably in a much more basic point, while we have pointed to our equipment at Koenigstein being involved, as I said earlier, we have not provided any conclusions because we don't have any conclusions yet on what the costs would have been of that equipment as leading to the ignition, right. We don't know to what extent we – if the negligence standard applied in court or later on showing and producing (00:38:31) at the PUC, we just don't have sufficient facts at hand to determine the degree to which we acted prudently and reasonably, and we probably won't know that until we have more pieces of information including access to the equipment that CAL FIRE currently has and that we haven't been able to see.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
And just maybe to expand a little bit, Jonathan, so the material loss that Pedro mentioned in his prepared remarks that's related to the whole host of things that I and Pedro have already talked about as around the ignition point and the fact that the association of our equipment with that ignition point. But the other part of the analysis is insurance recovery and we have $1 billion of insurance for that period, and then, separately of an analysis of probability of recovery. That's more complex than the analysis of – in the insurance, obviously. But those are the other components that are – so we have to think about them in different buckets.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Yeah.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
So does your statement and what you've just said, Maria, mean that you expect to have an exposure that exceeds your insurance and likelihood of recovery, or are you just talking about the sort of the number itself?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
I think that we – as Pedro mentioned, we have not had access to the equipment yet that was at Koenigstein Road. There is a lot of information that we still need to obtain from third-party sources and others, things that will come up during the course of litigation. I think right now, we're still going through all of that. And as we get more information, we'll be able to develop a more specific response.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. And then, if you – I think that was kind of a – oh, and one other thing, you said you're going to make – you're making moderate investments in the mitigation program, I mean, can you give us any quantification of moderate?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Sure. That's related to what we were calling our GS&RP, our Grid Safety and Resiliency Program, so that's the filing that we made not too long ago. It covers the year 2008 – balance of the year 2018, 2019, and 2020. Overall, that's about $407 million. I believe that the 2018 spending is in the $50 million or so range that's for the balance of the year. So that's what we're saying in terms of moderate expenditure.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Just one final thing, Maria. You said you would probably give a full update of your outlook when you got the PD on the rate case, I think, in your prepared remarks. Is that, which clearly could come any day, in which case might you even have such a thing at the EEI conference, for example?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
So obviously, probably from the last time I'm sure you recall that the proposed decision is more than 1,000 pages typically, the ALJ ruling. We will work diligently to read as fast as we can and to update the capital spending for the period as well as the rate base outlook then for the period. It will still be a proposed decision, so we might have various caveats that we might want to associate with that update. But yeah, we will be trying, obviously, as hard as we possibly can if something were to come out between now and then. I think that might have actually happened in the previous case where we got a proposed decision right before – or final decision right before EEI.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. But I did hear you right that you would – the trigger in this case would be the PD not necessarily...?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Yeah. So we're going to update rate base and capital based on the proposed decision. Because it's a proposed decision, we may have commentary around things we may or may not agree with still at that point. But yes, that's what we will do.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Great. Thank you. Sorry for all the questions.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
No, it's fine.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Thanks, Jonathan.
Operator:
Thank you. Thank you. Our next question comes from Shahriar Pourreza from Guggenheim Partners. Your line is now open.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Hey. Good afternoon, guys. So let me just ask you, Pedro, just around this. I mean, when you guys made your dividend decision and you went through a pretty painstaking process and you came up with multiple scenarios and you sort of book-ended it, right? So I guess, my first question is, is what you're finding as things are progressing as data points come out, is this still sort of in line with your book-end scenario, i.e., material impact? Any thoughts around your dividend decision?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Yeah. Hey, Shahriar, thanks for the question. And just to remind everybody, I think you captured it well, we've communicated in our – and actually not just one, right, but in all of our prior dividend decisions since the wildfire topic came up, that we and our board have looked at a very broad range of potential scenarios and have not based our dividend decision on an expected outcome; rather, we've based it on being comfortable that we could satisfy all of our obligations under a very negative outcome. I don't want to get ahead of our next quarterly decision, dividend decision. So I never want to get ahead of that. But I think that the disclosure that we're making today is certainly in line with the kinds of scenarios that we have explored in the past and that led to the dividend decisions we made previously.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Okay, got it, so that answers that. And then, just let me just on the more technicality. What triggered the disclosure, right? I mean, what – there's obviously I'm getting questions around the timing of why you disclosed today. The process is still really unclear. There's still parallel paths happening. Why not wait a little bit because this – does this leave you open to a lot of interpretations?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
I appreciate that question, too. And, look, this is an ongoing review by our team. Just as you expect, it's an ongoing review by the folks at CAL FIRE and the folks at Ventura County Fire and the folks at the CPUC Safety and Enforcement Division. In our case, we've been working all along. We learn more almost literally every day and we felt that based on that learning curve that we've had over the past months, we thought it was appropriate for us to make this disclosure today on this particular piece of the fire. Not just for anything – anything else or rather other than, the analysis, I mean, it's not just the analysis of talking to eyewitnesses, and I believe there's been some eyewitness' comments that have been captured in the press previously over the past several months, but it's not just that. It's looking at the equipment that we do have. As I've said we can't look at the equipment that we don't have, but we can look at fire indicators around the area and look at fire progression modeling. And all of these things that we're looking at, just trying to give you a flavor. It's not appropriate for us to go into those boring details given that this is litigation. But we felt that that had progressed to a point where it made sense for us to make today's disclosure.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
But I guess what I'm asking, Pedro, is why front-run CAL FIRE? Why not wait till they've finished their investigation?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Yeah. And I'm not sure we see this as necessarily front-running. Clearly CAL FIRE has pieces of evidence that we don't, and they'll come up with conclusions that in the end we may agree with or may not agree with. We view this as a much narrower decision in that it's about this one site. At this point, we felt that the evidence was very clear. Just the evidence that we had, the analysis that we had was very clear that our equipment was involved. And so, we thought it was appropriate to make that disclosure. We don't see anything in the CAL FIRE report that would change the fact or our assessment that our equipment was involved; hence, made sense to disclose it. We don't view it as a front-running per se of the CAL FIRE process, and we continue to be ready, willing, and able to cooperate with CAL FIRE. We've been answering their questions and jointly be very responsive in that regard.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Got it. I'll let everyone else ask questions. Thanks, guys.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hey. Thanks. Appreciate it.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Greg Gordon from Evercore ISI. Your line is now open.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hi, Greg.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Thanks. Good afternoon. So when you say that you expect to incur a material loss that – just to be sure I understand the strict legal interpretation of that, that's before you start to assess whether or not your insurance would recover – would cover some or all of it before you assess whether or not there's a path for recovery through the PUC, et cetera? It's just how – it's a large enough gross number before all those other factors that you feel you have to disclose it, is that correct or incorrect?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
That's correct. When you think about how – this is Maria, by the way, Greg. When you think about how you work through that on your financial statements, you actually do think about the liabilities separately from the asset. So that's the – I don't want to use the word progression, but that's the sequence of events on how you would think about it. Now in some cases, insurance, I think, is a relatively straightforward bucket. I think in terms of cost recovery, we have to work through that and look at prior precedents and think through what this particular situation is and if it's – there's something here that there were similar facts and circumstances in the past before we would actually then book regulatory asset around that. So I think that you do have to go through sort of the thought process around each of those components individually.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Okay. Okay. And then to switch to a more financial topic on follow-up, looking at page 7, where you talked about financial assumptions and comparing that to what you said on the Q2 call, you on the Q2 call said you would expect incremental wildfire insurance costs $0.38 and you expect to defer $0.30. You're now saying that you expect to recover substantially all of them. So can you tell us what's changed there and then you've removed the $0.03 line item for energy efficiency, can you explain that as well?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Okay. So let's see maybe just to walk through, so we have here on page 7 that we continue to believe that it's $0.38 of incremental wildfire insurance. We believe that most incremental costs are probable of recovery. So if you recall the differentiating I'll call it the line in the sand, if you will, is the application date for our WEMA, so that's April 3. We did prior to filing that WEMA also filed the Z-Factor letter, which would actually cover us for more than the $0.30, but – where we cover the delta between – approximately the delta between $0.30 and $0.38, but because we didn't have precedents around the Z-Factor that we're exactly on point, we actually didn't defer the cost until we filed our WEMA, until we saw the PG&E WEMA decision. Obviously, subsequently yesterday we got our own decision. So then we said we could defer the costs. The detail later on in that bullet is about the $0.14 that we've deferred so far in Q3. We expect to defer an additional $0.14 in Q4 and then $0.02 comes from the FERC, so that's the $0.30 versus the $0.38 with the $0.08 delta.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
And then the energy efficiency?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Sorry. And then the energy efficiency, that's a – I would say that's a procedural issue, the Energy Division has not yet issued – they basically go through I'll call it all the math on energy efficiency and determine sort of what we would actually earn on those programs. They have been delayed, frankly, in issuing the document that goes through all of that. We thought we would get it earlier in the summer. It's now been delayed given the CPUC calendar. For the balance of the year, we don't think it's likely that they will actually issue that. And then even when they do issue that, there's a comment period that's required as well. Therefore, we're looking for that in 2019. And we wouldn't accrue for that until we get all of that done.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Thank you.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thanks, Greg.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael Lapides from Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hello, Michael.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Hey, guys. Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. How do you think about how much balance sheet capacity you have, whether it's to fund the incremental rate base growth or to fund potential liabilities or related to wildfires or some combination thereof? How do you think about how much incremental balance sheet either at the SCE level or at the HoldCo investing in SCE, do you think you have over the kind of the life of your kind of rate base and CapEx forecast?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Let me start with a real high level answer and turn over to Maria. But I think you've heard this message consistently from us. We have a strong balance sheet. We have strong capacity there. Maria mentioned in her comments continuing access to the short and longer term debt markets. We also acknowledge though that the wildfire liability being a key uncertainty, right, it will be helpful to understand over the long run what that final exposure really is because then we can think about how we best optimize the use of our balance sheet to cover that. We're confident that we have the balance sheets to cover that. How specifically we end up dealing with that specific liability, when we get to that point we can optimize around that; but, Maria, I'll just turn over to you.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Sure. So, Michael, I think we think about a number of different things in terms of it. So first, just maybe touch on a page or thing, we do have a number of things that we're balancing and thinking about. So it's the wildfire, the potential overall exposure there as well as any recovery that would be associated with that. There is the GRC – 2018 GRC decision and we're gearing up for the 2021 GRC at this point. So there is that, there are the capital requests and capital requirements that are happening outside of our GRC requests. So it's Charge Ready II, but it's the Grid Resiliency plan that we just filed. So there's a lot of things, I'll say on the investment side of the ledger and/or potentially the wildfire issue.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Got it. (00:54:20)
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
...on the other side, I mean, what we're looking at is sort of debt capacity, it's both short-term and long-term debt capacity. We're looking at SCEs, equity capitalization rate, which right now is about – at the end of the quarter I think was 50%, so a little bit higher than what is required by the CPUC. And then we balance across a whole lot of different issues, what's the cost, where is the best place to finance. We will think about how the rating agencies will react to all of that and how do we stay aligned so that there's no undue impact between the holding company decisions and operating company decision. So it's a lot of factors, Michael, and we will continue to assess them as we get more and more information around some of these other elements like the wildfire liability, GRC decision, capital investment requirements.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Can you remind us, what's your target when we think, I mean, FFO to debt level, meaning how do you think about what your goal is? And I don't mean in any necessarily one specific year, but I mean kind of on an ongoing basis, what your target credit metric is?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Yeah. So we don't typically talk about specific target number, I mean, obviously, a lot of that has to do with how the rating agencies view us. Obviously, how do they view California. There's been a little bit of stress around that recently. We have been comfortable at the ratings that we have been at over the past any number of years now. Obviously, we just were downgraded recently but Edison International, so for example where Moody's has us a Baa1, and Southern California Edison is an A3. We're stable there. On the other hand, S&P we're BBB+ and negative outlook at both entities. But generally speaking, put aside some of the noise that's been created by assessments of the wildfire issues, SB 901 ongoing, we're continuing improvements in the regulatory construct. We're comfortable in that range and we're also always alert to sort of any divergences between the holding company and the offering company.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Got it. And then one quick last regulatory one. How are you thinking about next year's cost to capital docket? I mean, is there a scenario, especially for you and your neighbor part of the north where intervenors would be willing to forgo the docket and maybe the commission would as well considering – it's hard to see the math coming out with dramatically lower authorized ROEs, especially for the neighbor to your north, but maybe you guys as well?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
I think our base assumption right now based on what the commissioner said in the last cost of capital proceeding is that they want to have the benefit of going through a full proceeding because it's a re-education process for everyone. And I don't think any of the commissioners who are sitting today were here for the last full round of cost of capital discussions. So with that base scenario, you never say never, right? People can change minds or whatever. But I think at this point, the base scenario would be if we go to a full proceeding. And when we do, we will be very ready for that. The arguments that have ruled the day in the past in terms of the need for a California premium are even more acute today. It's all frankly, all the good risks, right? The important risk that we will have to take to make sure that we're helping California do more renewables and more energy efficiency and the like. And now, add on to that, doing it with more electrification, different uses of the grid, more need to look at cybersecurity. And then of course, let's not forget, the large risk that still we have to deal with the wildfires. So all of those will, I think, add to the argument for a premium ROE.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Got it. Thank you, guys. Much appreciated.
Operator:
Thank you. That was the last question, and now we'll return the call back to Mr. Sam Ramraj.
Sam Ramraj - Edison International:
Thank you for joining us today, and please call us if you have any follow-up questions. This concludes the conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
That concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at this time.
Executives:
Sam Ramraj - Edison International Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International Ronald Owen Nichols - Southern California Edison Co.
Analysts:
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc. Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Stephen C. Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc. Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Lasan A. Johong - Auvila Research Consulting LLC
Operator:
Good afternoon and welcome to the Edison International Second Quarter 2018 Financial Teleconference. My name is Princess and I will be your operator today. Today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Sam Ramraj, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Ramraj, you may begin your conference.
Sam Ramraj - Edison International:
Thank you, Princess, and welcome, everyone. Our speakers today are, President and Chief Executive Officer, Pedro Pizarro; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Maria Rigatti. Also here are other members of the management team. Materials supporting today's call are available at www.edisoninvestor.com. These include our Form 10-Q, prepared remarks from Pedro and Maria, and the teleconference presentation. Tomorrow, we will distribute our regular business update presentation. During this call, we will make forward-looking statements about the outlook for Edison International and its subsidiaries. Actual results could differ materially from current expectations. Important factors that could cause different results are set forth in our SEC filings. Please read these carefully. The presentation includes certain outlook assumptions, as well as reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure. During the question-and-answer session, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. I will now turn the call over to Pedro.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Well, thanks a lot, Sam, and good afternoon, everyone. Second quarter core earnings were $0.85 per share, roughly flat to the same period last year. Please remember this comparison is not particularly meaningful, because SCE has not received a decision in its 2018 General Rate Case. Maria will provide more detail in her remarks. Today, I will touch on several policy and growth topics, but let me begin with comments on wildfires. We continue to support the communities affected by the wildfires and mudslides by ensuring customers affected by these disasters are receiving support, including bill forgiveness, extended payment arrangements and help with temporary power. We are committed to helping our customers recover and rebuild from these events. In order to help, we have set up a dedicated web page for customers impacted by these events, are providing specially trained resources in our contact center and are assisting customers through in-person meetings at local assistance centers. A number of external agencies have been investigating the potential origins and causes of the Thomas Fire and smaller fires that were in our service territory. As we do in all wildfire matters, SCE is also conducting its own review. The investigations continue and we currently cannot predict when they will be completed. In the meantime, Southern California Edison has spent extensive time reviewing and strengthening our wildfire mitigation and prevention efforts in preparation for the new normal. Our focus has been on five major areas. First, vegetation management. We have increased the vegetation patrols in the most severe high-risk areas and we are evaluating opportunities to perform more expansive tree trimming and tree removal. As a reminder, high fire risk areas identified in the CPUC's fire risk maps account for approximately a quarter of our service territory. Second, hardening our system. We are increasing the use of fire-resistant poles, insulated conductor and non-expulsion fuses in select high fire risk areas. Third, operational practices. During Red Flag Warning conditions, we continue to restrict certain types of work and our standard procedure is to not automatically reenergize circuits in high fire risk areas after interruptions until lines are physically inspected. Also, we have refined our protocols for the de-energization of lines when critically necessary to prevent fires and protect public safety, and continue to discuss these with potentially impacted communities. Fourth, partnerships. Wildfire response planning occurs with fire agencies, local emergency operation centers and community groups throughout the service territory. Finally, we maintain a 24-hour situational awareness center and around-the-clock incident management teams when conditions merit. In certain areas, we are also installing additional weather stations to improve our awareness of local conditions and high-definition cameras to provide early warning of fires both internally and to local fire agencies. We continue to make progress on wildfire policy issues as well. We are engaged with state leaders, including the governor's office, legislative leaders and stakeholders across the State on the solutions we believe are needed. As we have discussed before, we are focused on four key principles, including a wildfire management plan to guide system investments and new operating protocols, which will create more transparency and clarity with regards to prudency; reform of inverse condemnation to transition from strict liability regardless of fault to a reasonableness standard; reform of the current cost recovery structure at the CPUC to incorporate the concept that liability must be proportionate to the utility's contribution to a fire; and recognition of the continued importance of financially healthy utilities to meet California's ambitious climate change policies. We continue to be encouraged by the dialog that we and other California utilities are having with members of the legislature. This includes the amended Senate Bill 901, which has moved to a Legislative Conference Committee and can be further amended to continue the State's progress toward reaching the goals that the governor and legislative leadership set forth in March. The goals noted five key areas, from updating liability rules and regulations for utilities, to enhancing prevention and mitigation efforts surrounding these events. While SB 901 is the focus of the Committee, other bills can be considered to address the goals as well. As of early July, a number of wildfire bills passed legislative Committees. At this stage in the legislative process, the individual bills matter less than the substance and we are fully engaged with the legislature on these issues with a goal of achieving reforms that provide more transparency and additional efforts to mitigate catastrophic events and mechanisms that fairly allocate responsibility among the multiple causes, which contribute to wildfires. It is important to note that we do believe utilities should still be held responsible in proportion to our actions, if there was serious misconduct. I want to reiterate from last quarter that implementation of solutions through a legislative process will take time, and bill language can change during that process either through existing bills or through new legislative vehicles as they come up. We are hopeful a solution can be achieved this legislative session, but there are no guarantees. On the judicial pathway, the Round Fire hearing associated with the motion for legal determination of inverse condemnation has been removed from the calendar and will not be rescheduled, because the plaintiffs' claims have been resolved through a settlement. Additionally, we are aware of the many lawsuits filed related to the Thomas Fire and Montecito mudslides naming SCE and, in some cases, EIX as a defendant. The cases have been coordinated in the LA Superior Court. The litigation process, which is in preliminary stages, will likely take a number of years to be resolved because of the complexity of the matters and the time needed to complete the ongoing investigations and analysis. The Thomas Fire and Montecito mudslides litigation presents an additional opportunity to challenge inverse condemnation. On the regulatory pathway, I want to briefly mention the recent denial of the Applications for Rehearing in San Diego Gas & Electric's Wildfire Expense Memorandum Account, or WEMA proceeding. While this doesn't have a significant effect on our current position in any of the three pathways, it does increase our sense of urgency to get legislation passed to reform cost recovery mechanisms. Conversely, we were supportive of the decision by the Commission to approve the alternate proposed decision in the PG&E WEMA which approved the Wildfire Memorandum Account as of the date of filing. Building on this decision, we received a scoping memo for the SCE WEMA application in mid-July, which stated that evidentiary hearings are not needed, and a proposed decision would be issued within 90 days of the date of the ruling. In the meantime, SCE continues to support California's ambitious environmental policies. Multiple paths exist for California to meet its 2030 and ultimately 2050 climate goals with varying levels of difficulty and costs. However, all feasible paths must significantly reduce emissions from the transportation sector. As a reminder, last fall, SCE explored several of these scenarios to better understand feasibility, costs, and trajectory to reach California's goals. We found the most feasible pathway to reach the state's 2030 goals to be an electric grid supplied by 80% carbon-free energy made reliable by up to 10 gigawatts of energy storage, which will support more than 7 million electric vehicles in California roads and nearly one-third of space and water heaters powered by electricity. I will highlight several regulatory proceedings that begin to enable some of this transition, specifically related to electric vehicles. At the end of May, the Commission issued a final decision on our January 2017 Transportation Electrification filing. The decision approved a five-year $356 million program, of which $242 million is capital spend supporting funding for medium and heavy-duty vehicle charging infrastructure. For light-duty electric vehicle charging infrastructure, we filed our Charge Ready Phase 2 application at the end of June, which requests $760 million of total costs, including approximately $560 million in capital spend for infrastructure to support 48,000 new EV charging ports and increased marketing, education and outreach. The application continues the implementation of our Transportation Electrification pathway and expands on the Light-Duty Infrastructure Pilot that was launched in late May 2016. These programs as well as earlier actions taken by the CPUC and other agencies continue to demonstrate California is at the forefront of electrification efforts by investing more than any other state in this area. Moving to our 2018 General Rate Case, we are looking forward to a proposed decision from the administrative law judges following the recent oral arguments. We cannot speculate on the timing for a proposed decision and subsequent commission decision but we do remain optimistic about getting a final decision before year-end. Regarding SONGS, just a few hours ago, the Commission adopted the proposed decision from the ALJ, which generally adopts the settlement as drafted except for the disapproval of a provision providing $12.5 million of greenhouse gas reduction research funding. The settling parties now have to convene and determine if the group or a significant subset of them will accept the changes. A notice must be filed with the Commission within 10 days of the decision. We look forward to achieving a final resolution of the SONGS cost recovery matter. While we are focused on resolving wildfire-related issues, we continue to push forward on key regulatory proceedings that we believe are necessary to meet California's 2030 climate goals. This will require strong, financially healthy utilities, so we remain optimistic that a durable solution to the wildfire issues will be achieved. As we work towards, that our company will also remain focused on improving our safety culture and broader operational excellence and on delivering strong solutions to be a key enabler of our state's long-term policy vision. With that, I'll turn it over to Maria for her financial report.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Thank you, Pedro. Good afternoon, everyone. My comments today will cover our second quarter 2018 results compared to the same period a year ago, and other financial updates for EIX and SCE. As we have communicated to you before, until we receive a decision on the 2018 General Rate Case, we will continue to recognize revenues from CPUC activities, largely based on 2017 authorized base revenue requirements, with the reserve taken for known items including the cost of capital decision and tax reform. Also consistent with last quarter, we are providing our SCE key drivers analysis at the prior combined statutory tax rate of approximately 41% for both 2018 and 2017 for comparability purposes. Therefore, the effective tax reform will largely be isolated so we can focus on the underlying financial and operational drivers and business. Let's begin with a look at our core earnings driver. Please turn to page 2. For the second quarter 2018, Edison International reporting core earnings of $0.85 per share, roughly flat to the same period last year. From the table on the right-hand side, you will see that SCE had a negative $0.03 EPS variance year-over-year. SCE revenue increased $0.07 over prior year. CPUC revenues were up $0.05 mainly due to the absence of a refund to customers booked in 2017 as well as balancing account activity, which is partially offset by our cost of capital reserve. Additionally, FERC contributed $0.02 of higher revenue as a result of higher expenses. Our core EPS in the second quarter was negatively impacted by $0.10 of higher total expenses year-over-year. The largest driver was an $0.08 impact from higher operation and maintenance costs, primarily related to higher wildfire insurance premium. The $0.08 include the quarterly impact of the $121 million premium we discussed last quarter, as well as additional insurance associated with obtaining new policies to fill out our coverage. We have requested approval from the CPUC for regulatory mechanism to track and recover wildfire insurance premiums in excess of the amounts that are ultimately approved in our 2018 GRC decision. We are currently evaluating the regulatory accounting for incremental wildfire insurance cost. As a first step, based on the outcome of the PG&E WEMA, we expect that we will be allowed to track our own incremental wildfire cost, including wildfire insurance premiums beginning at our April 3 application date, and these will ultimately be subject to a reasonableness review. Based on the information presently available, we expect to defer $0.30 per share of wildfire insurance costs during the third and fourth quarter. The incremental wildfire insurance costs for the full year of 2018 are expected to be $0.38 per share before considering the regulatory deferral. I will give a further update on the insurance market in a minute. Moving to net financing costs, we saw a $0.04 increase over the same period last year, mainly related to higher interest expense, primarily related to higher debt balances to fund rate base growth. The key EPS drivers table for SCE on the right-hand side of slide shows other smaller contributing items. For the quarter, EIX Parent and Other had positive $0.03 per share core earnings variance mainly due to the absence of the SoCore Energy goodwill impairment taken in the second quarter of 2017. EIX Parent had a negative impact of $0.01, as lower corporate expenses were offset by the absence of an IRS tax settlement achieved in 2017. Please turn to page 3. I don't plan to review the year-to-date financial results in detail, but the earnings analysis is consistent with the second quarter results. As I've said previously, comparisons pending a 2018 GRC decision are not meaningful. We expect to record a true-up in the quarter we receive a proposed decision. I will next speak to our capital expenditure and rate base forecasts on pages 4 and 5. Our SCE capital expenditures and rate base forecast have remained unchanged from last quarter. As a reminder, while 2019 and 2020 CPUC jurisdictional capital expenditures remain at the GRC request level, our 2018 capital expenditures align with our work execution plan for this year. There are two items to note related to our capital spending plan and we have provided information on the slide to outline the impacts of some recent regulatory activity. In the quarter, we received a final decision approving a $356 million medium- and heavy-duty transportation electrification program, as Pedro noted. Given the expected timing and size of the capital program, we expect cumulative capital spending to increase approximately $115 million by the end of 2020 and the associated rate base would increase $78 million. At the same time, we are awaiting a Commission vote on the proposed decision and alternate proposed decision on the Alberhill System Project. Both these decisions deny the Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity based on the conclusion of the ALJ and the assigned Commissioner that the project is not needed. We continue to believe the project is needed to serve forecasted local area demand and to increase reliability and operating flexibility and have filed comments on the proposed and alternate proposed decision. If the project is ultimately cancelled, SCE's cumulative capital spending through 2020 will be reduced by approximately $85 million and the associated rate base will decrease $100 million in 2020. The rate base reduction includes amounts that SCE has already incurred and may not be recoverable as the project is cancelled. Depending on the outcome of the Alberhill proceeding, these two decisions could largely offset each other during our forecast period. We expect to update our full forecast when we get a final decision on the 2018 GRC. On page 6, you will see our financial assumptions for 2018. We have laid out a few key items on the page that you should consider as you model 2018 and beyond. Most of the information on this page has remained unchanged since last quarter. As a reminder, the information we provide on this slide reflects our new combined statutory tax rate of approximately 28%. Further, we will provide 2018 earnings guidance only after we receive a final decision on the General Rate Case. I would like to take a moment to update you on our insurance coverage. During the second quarter, our team continued to build our insurance tower for the upcoming policy period, which is generally June to June. We now have approximately $1 billion of wildfire-specific insurance coverage for the period June 1, 2018 through December 30, 2018; and approximately $940 billion for the period December 31, 2018 through May 31, 2019. SCE may obtain additional wildfire insurance for these periods in the future. This coverage includes the $300 million policy we purchased at the end of last year, which will remain in place through December 2018, as well as the new policy placements that extends to June 2019. As we work to address our insurance needs, we continue to see a tightening market in terms of both availability and price and the cost is significantly higher than we requested in our General Rate Case. SCE forecasted expenses of $92 million for liability insurance in its test year 2018, of which approximately 80% is related to wildfire insurance. Overall for 2018, premiums are approximately $237 million. I want to provide a few additional comments on other financial topics. At SCE, our average common equity component of total capitalization was 49.5% as of June 30, including the charge from the revised SONGS settlement. Based on the adoption by the CPUC or the proposed decision earlier today and subject to the adoptions by settling parties or a significant subset of them, the revised settlement allows SCE to exclude the $448 million after tax charge from its equity capitalization ratio, which would bring our ratio to 49.9%. We continue to maintain a strong balance sheet at both the holding company and SCE as we work through the uncertainty around the wildfires cost recovery concern and a way to 2018 General Rate Case decision. During the quarter, we increased our credit facilities at EIX and SCE to provide additional liquidity to meet our ongoing funding needs. Total facility size is now $4.5 billion and availability at quarter end was $4.1 billion net of commercial paper borrowing and letters of credit postings at SCE. We also effectively accessed the capital markets for $650 million during the quarter to fund our rate base growth and free up operational liquidity during this period of managing through the legislative, legal, and regulatory solutions required to address the California wildfire issue, although spreads are higher than we have experienced prior to 2017 wildfires. That concludes my remarks and I'll turn it back over to Sam.
Sam Ramraj - Edison International:
Operator, please open the call for questions. As a reminder, we request you to limit yourself to one question and one follow-up so everyone in line has the opportunity to ask questions.
Operator:
Thank you. Our first question is coming from Ali Agha from SunTrust. Ali, your line is now open.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
Thank you. Good afternoon.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hey, Ali.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Hi, Ali.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
First question to Pedro. I was curious if – as you've gone through and your team has gone through the proposal that the governor put out to the Committee, what is EIX's views on that, and do you think that would address the issues as you laid them out?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Yeah. Ali, thanks for the question, and I think I would sum up our reaction, is, it's early days. We appreciate that there are discussions going on and that the governor's office put in a proposal, but we really view this as the beginning of there will be a very active discussion in Sacramento and particularly within the Conference Committee that's been established. The proposal addresses a number of key areas, there's probably additional things that I'm sure the Committee will work on. So, while it's a short time period between now and August 28, it's also a long time period in terms of the – I think the nature and extent of discussions that we would expect to take place through the end of the session.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
Okay. And my second question, Pedro, in your prepared remarks, you mentioned a number of investigations that are ongoing about the fire and the causes et cetera, including an internal one by SCE itself. And I just wanted to find out, as you've done your own internal investigation, have you found information that contradicts the statement you gave us back in December when you did a very preliminary investigation when the fire started, or is that statement still valid based on updated investigation by SCE?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Ali, I think you're referring – and let me just confirm this. I think very early on, there was an initial location of origin that CAL FIRE had published and we had said that we were not aware of utility equipment near that area, and I think that was factual. As the fire grew, as we learned more, I think that became a much more complex fire. And so, while I think that statement stood on its own for that specific pinpoint that had been drawn by CAL FIRE initially, we are now looking at the totality of the fire. We, I think, said in our disclosures that we're aware there's more than one apparent point of origin. And so it's something that we continue to investigate. We know CAL FIRE and other agencies are investigating. And so we're not able to really comment on what may come out of the various investigations until those are concluded.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith. Julien, your line is now open.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hi, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Hey, good afternoon. Can you hear me?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Yeah. Really well.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Excellent. Great. So I wanted to come back to this deferral piece of the equation and the WEMA and your expectation. So again, maybe just do the implied math here, so there's a $0.38 minus the $0.30 you expect to defer. There's about an $0.08 impact in 2018, if I'm hearing you correctly. How are you thinking about that carrying forward and annualizing into 2019 with any drag? And what I'm trying to get at there, if I can elaborate is, is there any incremental insurance that you anticipate that you'll be pursuing and would any of that not necessarily be covered under the WEMA, as best you initially interpret it, shall we say?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Hey, Julien. It's Maria. So let's think about – so we'll walk you through maybe the thought process we have around this. So as I mentioned earlier, the request that we made for our 2018 GRC in the year 2018 was about $92 million total liability insurance. About 80% approximately of that that is wildfire-related. So the thought process we go through is we'll have a rate (27:18) asset and we'll defer the incremental costs based on an assessment of probability of recovery. So now we looked at two things. First, when can we – at what point in time can we really establish that we have a regulatory mechanism that will allow for that recovery. And we do have a number of those proceedings ongoing right now, both the Z-Factor as well as the WEMA case. And based on some of the recent decisions, we are thinking that we won't get a memo account based on what we know today, and that we do think that once that's established the costs that are tracked in that memo account would be probable of recovery. Then we have to figure out what's incremental, because those memo accounts are really only for incremental costs. So, as I mentioned before, the $92 million, 80% of that is wildfire-related. We have a 2018, so calendar year expense for wildfire insurance of $237 million. So, we looked at that and we looked at the incremental costs associated between those two numbers, as well as the timing of our application for the WEMA, and that's how we came up with the $0.38 of incremental cost, $0.30 of which is recoverable. And as we roll forward into next year, now we've only kind of covered in terms of 2019, June to June, we're only partway through covering 2019 at this point. We're going to look at, obviously at some point, covering the rest of 2019, and SCE could actually look at incremental insurance even above what we currently have for the period in 2018. So – and as we do that and think about what else might be subject to the WEMA or tracking the WEMA, we would say that anything is incremental to what we've asked for in the GRC, and that falls into this period, post the application for sure, would be part of that WEMA account that we will then be tracking. And that's not to say we will continue to pursue the Z-Factor mechanism that we filed last year and see if there's any other additional recovery that we could kind of be entitled to. So, that was our thought process.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Excellent. So – but – maybe to put you a little bit on the spot, it seems as if it's your expectation that you would expect to continue to raise the total amount of insurance that you have, right? We should expect that to come at some point here?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
We're going to continue to look at it.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Okay.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
I can't say right now in part because the market is very tight and things are very expensive to what extent we will obtain additional insurance. We'll look at every avenue. There is insurance, there's reinsurance, there's some other capital markets approaches that one could use. We'll look – we'll be evaluating all of that. I think a lot of it is determined by what's really available in the market as well.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Right. All right. I'll leave it there. Thank you very much.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thanks, Julien.
Sam Ramraj - Edison International:
Operator?
Operator:
Our next question comes from Praful Mehta from Citigroup. Your line is now open.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hi, Praful.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Thanks so much. Hi, guys. So, Pedro, just following up on your prepared remarks. You had color there saying legislation can take time. And so, you're qualifying a little bit, or I guess balancing expectations around timing of legislation getting done. But we do know that it's critical to try and get this done especially for your neighbors to get it done this year if possible. So I'm just trying to understand how are you thinking about the timing and what are the pushes and pulls in your mind that could end up causing a problem on timing?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Yeah, that's a good question, Praful. Probably useful to just step back for a second and repeat a theme that I think was in my remark, and in frankly prior earnings call remarks. We think about this as a broad economy-wide problem needing an integrated solution across the really broad buckets of preventing and mitigating fires across the state with all the field we have and dead trees, about so much of our state's lands, hardening the state's infrastructure including utilities, and that includes how we think differently about our operations and then dealing with the financial consequences, the allocation of the risk. There are a lot of elements inside of that, including the reform of inverse condemnation, thinking about moving to from a strict liability standard to a standard of reasonableness, ultimately ensuring that utility is absolutely are on the hook, to the extent that they have in pro forma as they should, but that they are liable to an extent proportional to their actions, right? There are other pieces that the state will need to address around – in wildfire mitigation and prevention, wildfire management plans, how the PUC then looks at the prudency or utilities around those plans, a lot of pieces there. If you look at some of the discussions, for example, yesterday in the hearing that the Conference Committee had or the discussions we would expect the Conference Committee to have over the weeks ahead between now and the end of August. They may be talking about – most or all of those areas ideally, we would like to see the state develop a final piece of legislation that has the package that addresses all of these pieces that are needed. We think that's feasible. However, we also recognize, it's challenging. And there are a lot of pieces and a lot of fact-gathering and thinking and drafting of language and debate I'm sure that will happen inside the confines of the Conference Committee. And so, all along, we've just started to be realistic with our investors about, fact that, while it's seasonable and how we're all working very hard and I'll just ask that our coalition and – a lot of us that are stakeholders across the state, they may or may not be, that all of these pieces get done in this legislative session. We hope they are, but they may not. And so, hard to handicap at this point what pieces – what the success will be, maybe it's all if it. Maybe it's most of it. It's certainly possible there can be pieces that get handled outside the Conference Committee in parallel legislation with a broader senate assembly. It's certainly possible there are things that go beyond this scheduled legislative session. So, I always try to do is acknowledge that possibility, Praful without trying to handicap or point to, gee, we think this element, there is a 90% probability and that other one has a 60% probability.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
That is super helpful color, Pedro. Thank you for that. Just a quick follow-up on this AB 33 securitization. It clearly seems like a constructive way to meet any funding needs. But it was – looks like it was PG&E only at this point. Is that something that you would look to replicate if it were to go through, so it would apply to EIX as well?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Well, I think you're correct that the AB 33 is written – it's focused on PG&E. it clearly – we still don't know to what extent we may have liability for the 2017 events. I think I would just step back and say more broadly to the extent that there are events whether it's 2017, as it's the context of AB 33 or whether it was in terms of the framework for moving forward. To the extent that there are events where customers end up having to bear part of the costs for one interesting feature of AB 33 is the ability to basically securitize and amortize that exposure over a longer time period. And so that in and of itself is an interesting tool that could be beneficial to customers to the extent that we all encounter new wildfires in the future as part of this new normal.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Great. Thanks so much, guys.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Welcome.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Stephen Byrd from Morgan Stanley. Stephen, your line is now open.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hey, Stephen.
Stephen C. Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Hi, good afternoon. I wanted to just follow-up on insurance. I know you've given a lot of color around insurance but I wondered if you might be able to speak just to tell where you see that market going over time obviously the cost has been rising quite a bit. I'm curious if what sort of feedback you get from the insurance community in terms of just not only where the price is now, but future availability trends in terms of the nature of the product or anything else just so we can try to extrapolate over time where that market's going and sort of how to think about the level you received? And also to the extent possible, any feedback from the CPUC in terms of sort of the amount of cost that is palatable given just how high these costs are going?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Sure. So, Stephen, I think one of the elements required in order to answer your question is sort of just how does the current work around reforming inverse and strict liability versus a reasonable standard, how does that all turn out. Because if it continues to be the case that the utilities are going to be what I'll say the insurance of last resort, or these incidents then people that we buy insurance from are going to be exposed to a fair amount of risk, and I don't think you would see necessarily a moderating of the insurance premium from that perspective. Obviously, as wildfires continue to be more prevalent and to increase in intensity, the size of the losses could also grow and so people will be taking that into consideration. To the extent that there are new tools that can be implemented that help to mitigate that risk, I think insurance companies will take all of that into consideration. But I don't think that a moderation of premiums is necessarily in the card until we have a lot of, I'll say, fixes on all those fronts. In terms of your second question on CPUC reaction, what they have seen thus far from us, is the filing we made at the end of last year where they could see $120 million premium for $300 million of coverage. They're considering our application there, the advice letter that we filed there. We've gotten some questions and back-and-forth. But I think they are seeing that and they also can see the incredible increase in cost for the customer. And that really is, at the end of the day, something that gets recovered in rates typically and so it's something that goes right to the bottom line for our customers. And just to put it in perspective, we had saved quite a bit of O&M expense in this rate case versus our prior rate case, we passed it through to our customers, it was about $85 million and in one fell swoop, that $120 million premium last year wiped it out.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Maria, I would just add one more little bit of color for the first part of the question. We keep talking about the new normal, and we experience here events that I don't think we have really experienced not only as the utility, but as a state, and the same is true for the insurance companies. One little bit of color there are folks who interact with the insurance companies, color they've received is that the insurance companies are having to basically rework their models because the fundamental assumptions, the way that the models are wired, they're realizing needs change. And when you see events like during the Thomas Fire, the fact that that was in December and on the coast around Santa Barbara, Ventura, we were experiencing humidity levels of 1% to 3% on a December day, that's not something that a lot of us who have lived in the state for a long time have seen before. And so, it's a radical change in the underlying assumptions that's driving then questions, I think, for the insurance companies about their models and just adds uncertainty and therefore adds to pricing.
Stephen C. Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
That's very helpful. Thank you very much.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thanks, Stephen.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Angie Storozynski from Macquarie. Angie, your line is now open.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Hi, Angie.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hi, Angie.
Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
How are you? Well, I have to ask a question about fires, because that's almost required. So how about – I mean, what if the legislative session ends and nothing happens? Can the governor issue any type of a, I don't know, directive that would help you carry you guys through the next fire season, if there is even such a thing as a fire season at this point?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Yeah. Angie, that's a tough one to answer. I think we're, to be honest with you, very focused on the next several weeks, getting us to the end of August end of the (40:37) legislative session. As I said earlier, we think it's feasible, very feasible to have progress here, and we're certainly hopeful of that. If that doesn't work out, then I don't want to speculate on what some of the options might be for the government at that point.
Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Okay. And an unrelated question, so about just your ongoing operations. What is going on as far as any types of adjustments to the costs that those CCA or communities that are trying to self-procure electricity needs to pay for the costs that you have incurred to procured renewables? I mean, it seems like there's more and more of those CCAs happening, and I mean, I'm wondering if the reason why they are multiplying is because there's some inefficiency in the costs that they need to incur. And so, I know that you guys have been trying to make changes to that cost that the CCAs would have to pay. And my question is if that would be retroactive to all of those communities that are, in a way, starting to self-procure and how that would actually impact the municipalities that are still staying on your system. Thanks.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
That's a great question, Angie, and it has – doesn't have anything to do with wildfires, so for variety. So on CCA, we are seeing a growing number of cities and communities that are looking at the potential for Community Choice Aggregation. Just as a reminder, from an investor perspective, we should be neutral to that because this is covering the commodity procurement part of the business. That's a cost pass-through activity for us, so it doesn't have a direct impact on the potential earnings power for the company. However, there is an issue that we've been addressing and through the PUC process and it's really an issue of fairness of allocation of costs between customers. The concern has been that the, what's called the PCIA, the Procurement Cost (sic) [Power Charge] Indifference Adjustment, which is essentially the exit fee that a community choice aggregator or the customers of a CCA have to pay in order to make the remaining bundled customers whole for the cost we've taken on for long-term procurement contracts, for renewables or for other resources, we said at the PUC that we have a concern that that current fee has been not sufficiently compensatory and needs reform. The three utilities filed a joint proposal with the PUC in a PUC docket that's open right now, and we're expecting a proposed decision, I believe, sometime throughout this summer. In parallel with that, we've seen some constructive actions at the PUC, including, for example, I think around a couple of months ago, the PUC ensuring that CCAs have the same requirements for resource adequacy demonstrations, the year-ahead resource adequacy demonstration that utilities have. Again, that's part of ensuring that there's fair cost allocation across all customers. So some really constructive steps, but waiting to get the decision on the proposals for reforming the PCIA.
Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Great. Thank you.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thanks for the question, Angie.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Jonathan Arnold from Deutsche Bank. Jonathan, your line is now open.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Hi. Good afternoon, guys.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hi.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
I just wanted to double-check on the – as we think about the way you're treating this incremental insurance cost. Are you assuming that all of the incremental cost is effectively recoverable in the math you walked us through, Maria? Do we adjust out the 20% that is not to do with wildfires, potentially, or is it just the timing, like the April date that drives the number (45:04)?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
So I think, Jonathan, how you should think about it is, this is wildfire-related.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Yeah.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
So other insurance, we hope to play it in the normal course, so it's not – that's not the same situation. And what we think is, we have $0.38 cents of incremental wildfire-related cost vis-à-vis what we requested in our GRC.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
In the third and fourth quarter, we'll be deferring, based on what we know today, obviously, we'll continue with that, but based on what we know today, we'll be deferring $0.30.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
And the difference between $0.38 and $0.30 is the sort of three and a bit months.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Yeah. It would be incremental cost above what we requested that we don't think are recoverable because of timing of various mechanisms, et cetera, and that would be flowing through.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. But aside from the April date and the fact that that wipes out the early parts of the year, your assumption is any incremental wildfire insurance costs you're incurring should be recoverable through the WEMA and you're deferring it for that reason.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
That's correct. And we'll – as I said, we'll make an assessment every quarter, but that's our current thinking, yeah.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. That was kind of my question. And then, maybe my follow-up, I may have just missed this, but was there some mention, Pedro, of a possibility? Is there a precedent where the governor could possibly call a special session, or how could that happen if maybe August 28th turns out to not be long enough?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
So as you can imagine, we're focused on this session and hopeful and working hard to make – hopefully, legislature will make a good progress there. I don't think there's been a lot of talk around other mechanisms, given the focus on the Conference Committee process and the proposal that the governor put in. In theory, special sessions can be called after the regular session of the legislature. But again, our focus right now is on supporting the current Conference Committee effort.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thanks, Jonathan.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Lasan Johong from Auvila Research Consulting. Lasan, your line is now open.
Lasan A. Johong - Auvila Research Consulting LLC:
Yes. Thank you. Instead of asking a follow-up, I'm just going to ask two questions. First of all, probably, there's a heat wave going on in California – Southern California right now. I'm just wondering how the grid is performing, A, and related to that, if the renewables are doing what they're supposed to do, or it's being strained. And second question is, how is the CPUC, the utilities and interveners thinking about undergrounding cables at high risk wildfire areas? It seems to me that's the proper (47:47) long-term solution. Thank you.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Well, on the first question around the heat wave, I think the broad answer is that the system has been managing that reasonably well. But let me turn it to Ron Nichols, President of SCE.
Ronald Owen Nichols - Southern California Edison Co.:
Our system is holding up well. In fact, our teams have been reporting on that regularly. We're obviously putting a lot more people out in the field to make sure we're able to respond to it, but our grid is holding up well, the resources are there. We're just encountering some pricing issues as we look at the market, but supplies have been there. We haven't had any reliability concerns today.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
And on the second question on the CPUC, undergrounding, I think that is a topic that has been coming up a lot, particularly in discussions around grid resiliency and the like. The Commission has – we've identified it obviously as an alternative, but it's very expensive. The Commission is looking at, is comparing that to other alternatives, for example, insulated conductors as opposed to undergrounding. So, it's really something that's still being assessed by the Commission, and frankly, by the utilities as well.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Right. As you can imagine, we have a large effort, and I think that's part of what I mentioned under the broad umbrella of the operational considerations that we are looking at right now to look at alternatives for how we help address the risk in those areas.
Lasan A. Johong - Auvila Research Consulting LLC:
But insulating a cable doesn't prevent it from being cut by a falling tree?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Yes, because they'd still be above ground, so they could still be damaged by things that are going around and the like, but they do provide an additional layer of security and prevention because of the insulation.
Lasan A. Johong - Auvila Research Consulting LLC:
Understood. Thank you.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thanks very much.
Operator:
Thank you. And that was the last question. I will now turn the call back to Mr. Sam Ramraj.
Sam Ramraj - Edison International:
Thank you for joining us today and please call us if you have any follow-up questions. This concludes the call and you may now disconnect.
Operator:
Thank you, and again, that concludes today's conference. Thank you all for your participation. You may disconnect at this time.
Executives:
Sam Ramraj - Edison International Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International Adam S. Umanoff - Edison International
Analysts:
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Christopher James Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
Operator:
Good afternoon and welcome to the Edison International First Quarter 2018 Financial Teleconference. My name is Laurence and I'll be your operator today. Today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Sam Ramraj, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Ramraj, you may begin your conference.
Sam Ramraj - Edison International:
Thank you, Laurence, and welcome, everyone. Our speakers today are President and Chief Executive Officer, Pedro Pizarro; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Maria Rigatti. Also here are other members of the management team. Materials supporting today's call are available at www.edisoninvestor.com. These include our Form 10-Q, prepared remarks from Pedro and Maria, and the teleconference presentation. Tomorrow, we will distribute our regular business update presentation. During this call, we will make forward-looking statements about the outlook for Edison International and its subsidiaries. Actual results could differ materially from current expectations. Important factors that could cause different results are set forth in our SEC filings. Please read these carefully. The presentation includes certain outlook assumptions, as well as a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure. During the question-and-answer session, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. I will now turn the call over to Pedro.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Well, thanks, Sam, and good afternoon, everyone. Our first quarter core earnings were $0.80 per share, which was $0.31 below the first quarter last year. However, this comparison is not particularly meaningful because SCE has not received a decision in its 2018 General Rate Case. The main differences between this year and last year are the absence of tax benefits and stock option exercises that substantially boosted our first quarter results in 2017, and the incremental wildfire insurance premium expense. The implementation of the July 2017 cost of capital decision and the impact of tax reform on the parent company drag also affected earnings. Maria will cover this in more detail. Before I move on, I want to express our continued sympathy for all those who lost loved ones and had their homes and lives impacted by the Southern California wildfires. SCE's primary focus has been on the safety and well-being of our customers, field crews, numerous first responders, and impacted communities by safely restoring power, setting up aid centers for affected communities, and contributing funds and employee volunteer hours to help with recovery. With respect to the Southern California wildfires, a number of external agencies, including CAL FIRE, the Ventura County Fire Department, and the CPUC's Safety and Enforcement Division are investigating the potential origins and causes of the Thomas Fire. As we do in all wildfire matters, SCE is also conducting its own investigation. The investigations continue and we currently cannot predict when they will be completed. We continue to make progress across the state on wildfire issues, including the application of inverse condemnation with strict liability. We are engaged with state leaders including the governor's office, legislative leaders, and stakeholders across the state on the solutions we believe are needed. First and foremost is the prevention and mitigation of catastrophic wildfires. Second, our state infrastructure must be hardened with stronger building codes for infrastructure and other assets such as homes in high fire risk areas. Third, when a catastrophic event occurs in spite of all of these efforts, we need thoughtful policies around how financial risks are allocated, including fire suppression costs and costs related to damages. In order to help prevent and avoid the significant impacts of climate change and year-round wildfire seasons, the state must establish objective wildfire mitigation operating standards that meet or exceed industry best practices and are applicable to California's utilities and other critical infrastructure providers. If something goes wrong, regulators should use these clear standards when they determine if a utility properly ran its system. An updated standard of liability that considers degree of fault rather than the current standard of strict liability would ensure that there is a fair sharing of the increasing risk of climate change impacts across society. We were heartened by the recent statement released by Governor Brown's office in conjunction with bipartisan legislative leaders. They are partnering on solutions that will make California more resilient against the impacts of natural disasters and climate change. The statement noted five key areas that they and the Joint Legislative Committee on Emergency Management will focus on to craft solutions, from updating liability rules and regulations for utilities, to enhancing prevention and mitigation efforts surrounding these events. Since that statement, several hearings have occurred, and I am encouraged by the dialogue that we and other California IOUs are having with the legislature. As of the end of April, a number of wildfire bills passed legislative committees, including Senate Bills 819, 901, and 1088. At this stage in the legislative process, the individual bill numbers matter less than the substance. And we are fully engaged with the legislature on these issues, with a goal of achieving reforms that provide more transparency and additional efforts to mitigate catastrophic events. While we are actively involved in the committee hearings underway, it's important to remember that implementation of solutions through a legislative process will take time and bill language can change during that process. The IOUs will continue to work with the legislature, the governor's office and key stakeholders on a comprehensive wildfire solution that addresses the issues of liability and cost recovery. This could be through existing bills or new legislative vehicles as they come up. On the judicial pathway, we submitted a stipulation in the round fire case to extend the hearing on our motion for legal determination to June 15 in order to allow the parties to engage in confidential discussions regarding a potential resolution of the matter. Even if resolution is achieved in the round fire case, we do plan to challenge inverse condemnation and other appropriate cases including the Thomas Fire lawsuits. On the regulatory pathway, SCE filed an application on April 3 requesting a Wildfire Expense Memorandum Account or WEMA to track certain incremental wildfire related costs. We are requesting establishment of a WEMA now because we are in the process of renewing wildfire insurance for 2018 to 2019, and anticipate that cost of this additional insurance may substantially exceed the amount currently authorized in rates or requested in our pending 2018 GRC. In mid-April, ORA filed a protest to our motion in which we requested that the effective date of the WEMA be the date of the application. We also expect a protest from ORA by May 9, and by other parties as well, on the substantive aspects of the application. We have asked for an expedited timeline for this request and are awaiting a ruling. If our proposed schedule is accepted, a decision will be issued by August 2018. I do want to note that we launched a webpage on edisoninvestor.com where you will be able to find certain documents and information related to the Southern California wildfires, which may be of interest to investors. We continue to believe that the state will ultimately address the risks and issues surrounding wildfires and other climate change impacts, because California's economy and ambitious environmental policies require strong healthy utilities. Given this, I will highlight several regulatory proceedings that enable our investment to support California's 2030 goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution. In February, we discussed the final decision approving five of the six priority review projects that we proposed in our January 2017 transportation electrification filing. On March 30, the CPUC issued a proposed decision on the standard review projects granting $208 million of our $554 million request for medium- and heavy-duty infrastructure program. The PD proposes installing make-ready infrastructure at a minimum of 700 sites to support at least 6,500 medium- or heavy-duty electric vehicles. SCE has filed comments opposing a proposed option for customer-owned charging infrastructure where the cost will be expensed by the utility provider, and advocating to remove minimum site requirements based on what we believe are incorrect cost estimates, which understate the infrastructure cost. During the second quarter, we also plan to file a Charge Ready Phase II application. This will expand on our light-duty infrastructure pilot, which was launched in late May 2016. As of the end of March, agreements have been executed to deploy approximately 1,070 charging ports and we expect that approximately 1,250 chargers will be deployed by the time we complete the $22 million pilot. Capital cost estimates for Charge Ready Phase II could be substantially more than our initial expectation of at least $200 million of rate base when we first envisioned the full program as SCE is currently reevaluating the scope and cost in light of the recent governor's order targeting 5 million electric vehicles by 2030, and our own estimates of 7 million vehicles needed to achieve the state's GHG goals. We will keep you updated on our progress. On a related note, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently issued a determination stating that the light-duty vehicle model year 2022 to 2025 standards are not appropriate and may require revisions. This determination initiates a rulemaking process to evaluate new standards. We support strong greenhouse gas emission standards, as well as California's authority to set its own standards which have been adopted by many other states. In fact, just this morning, California announced that it is leading 16 other states and the District of Columbia in suing the U.S. EPA to preserve the nation's single vehicle emissions standard. We also believe that federal review should ultimately recognize the opportunities for infrastructure investment and job creation that are afforded by deploying electric vehicle technologies and the beneficial environmental impact of these standards. Moving on toward 2018 General Rate Case. We are looking forward to a proposed decision from the Administrative Law Judges. We cannot speculate on the timing for a proposed decision and subsequent commission decision, but remain optimistic about getting a final decision before year-end. With respect to SONGS, we announced a revised settlement in late January that was a result of multiple mediation sessions with a diverse set of parties. We continue to work with the other parties to complete the steps in this proceeding and are hoping for a swift commission decision approving the revised settlement, especially since all the parties actively involved in the mediation joined the settlement. As is usual in our regulated business, we have a few key proceedings pending and we are also working for the broad set of wildfire-related issues. Throughout all this, we continue to make progress in important long-term growth areas at our utility, like our core grid investments and transportation electrification. We play a critical and necessary role that ensures safe and reliable service for our part of the world's sixth largest economy and supports California's ambitious 2030 goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution. Our company will remain focused on improving our safety culture and broader operational excellence and on delivering strong solutions to be a key enabler of our state's long-term policy vision. With that, Maria will provide her financial report.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Thank you, Pedro, and good afternoon, everyone. My comments today will cover first quarter 2018 results compared to the same period a year ago and other financial updates for SCE and EIX. As a reminder, until we receive a decision on the 2018 General Rate Case, we will continue to recognize revenue from CPUC activities largely based on 2017 authorized base revenue requirements with reserves taken for known items including the cost of capital decision last year and tax reform. Also for this quarter and the rest of 2018, we plan to provide our SCE key drivers analysis at the prior combined statutory tax rate of approximately 41% for both 2018 and 2017 for comparability purposes with the incremental impact of the reduced rate reflected only in the income tax line item. Therefore, the effects of tax reform will largely be removed from the variance so that we can focus on the financial and operational drivers of the business. Let's begin with a look at our core earnings drivers. Please turn to page 2. For the first quarter 2018, Edison International reported core earnings of $0.80 per share, a decrease of $0.31 per share from the same period last year. From the table on the right-hand side, you will see that SCE had a negative $0.19 EPS variance year-over-year. SCE revenue was not an earnings driver this quarter. CPUC revenues were down $0.02 as a result of the 2017 cost of capital decision, and this was offset by higher FERC revenues as a result of higher expenses. On an equivalent tax rate basis, our core EPS in the first quarter was impacted by $0.15 of higher expenses year-over-year. This was due to increased costs that are above the 2017 authorized levels at which we are recognizing revenue. Additionally, the impact of the lower 2018 tax rate on the incremental expenses resulted in $0.04 of lower tax yield and this is reflected in the income tax line. The largest driver of the higher expenses is a $0.10 negative impact from higher operation and maintenance costs. This includes a $0.06 quarterly drag from the previously disclosed $121 million wildfire insurance premium, recovery of which has yet to be approved by the CPUC. This variance reflects the 41% statutory tax rate as discussed previously. On March 14, we filed a Z-Factor advice letter with the CPUC requesting recovery of these costs, less the FERC jurisdictional portion and the $10 million deductible required by the process. We will continue to recognize the expense related to the incremental wildfire insurance premium until we receive a decision from the CPUC regarding this filing. The additional $0.04 of higher O&M over prior year is due to higher line clearing and other maintenance expenses. The key EPS drivers table for SCE on the right-hand side of the slide shows other smaller contributing items. For the quarter, EIX Parent and Other had a negative $0.12 per share core earnings variance, mainly arising from the absence of tax benefits related to stock-based compensation that we saw in the first quarter of 2017. As a reminder, on a consolidated basis, we had $0.13 of tax benefits in the first quarter of last year. As we discussed on the fourth quarter call, we are also seeing additional drag from the lower tax shield at the Parent. We also had $0.13 per share of noncore charges. This was largely the result of a $0.15 per share impairment charge related to the sale of SoCore Energy. The sale was completed in mid-April. Please turn to page 3. Our SCE capital expenditures forecast has remained unchanged from last quarter. As a reminder, while 2019 and 2020 capital expenditures remains at GRC request level, SCE has developed and is executing against a 2018 capital expenditure plan that will allow SCE to ramp up its capital spending program over the three-year GRC period to meet what is ultimately authorized in the decision while minimizing the associated risk of unauthorized spending. However, I would like to point out two developments since the last quarter that could impact our forecast in the future. First, as Pedro noted, we received a proposed decision on the transportation electrification standard review project. In total, the proposed decision granted $208 million of the $554 million request which includes both capital and O&M costs. Neither our original request nor the resulting PD have been included in our capital forecast. We expect to include the program in our forecast when the final decision is issued. Also, we received a proposed decision on the Alberhill System Project, which denied the certificate of public convenience and necessity based on the CPUC's conclusion that the project is not needed. We continue to believe the project is needed to serve forecasted local area demand and to increase reliability and operating flexibility. Last week, SCE filed comments requesting that the CPUC deny the proposed decision as currently proposed and instead grant the certificate for the project. The Alberhill System Project is included in our capital forecast, including $175 million of spending through 2020. SCE has already incurred certain capital expenditures of which $29 million may not be recoverable if the project is cancelled. We expect to update our forecast when we get a final decision. Page 4 of the deck provides our rate base forecast which is unchanged from last quarter. The CPUC rate based forecast is based on the weighted average rate base that we requested in the GRC for the forward looking three-year period. That is it reflects our 2018 through 2020 request level capital expenditures. Once SCE receives a final decision in the 2018 GRC, our rate base forecast will be updated to reflect the authorized levels. At that time, we will also update our capital expenditures for 2019 and 2020. Page 5 is a recap of various items relating to our GRC, including the impact of updates related to tax reform and is unchanged from last quarter. On page 6, you will see our financial assumptions for 2018. We have laid out a few key items on this page that you should consider as you model 2018 and beyond. As a reminder, the information we provide on this slide reflects our new combined statutory rate of approximately 28%. I would like to reiterate that we will not be providing 2018 earnings guidance until we receive a final decision on the General Rate Case. I want to provide a few comments on other financial topics. On the subject of FERC, there has not been material updates to our Formula Rate filings since the fourth quarter. FERC has directed the parties to have settlement discussions and the parties are scheduled to reconvene at FERC on May 15. Hearings will be held if the parties do not ultimately settle. We cannot speculate on the outcome of this proceeding or the timeline and will keep you updated as new information is presented. At SCE, our average common equity component of total capitalization was 49.7% as of March 31, including the charge from the revised SONGS settlement. If approved by the CPUC, the revised settlement allows SCE to exclude the $448 million after-tax charge from its equity capitalization ratio which would bring our ratio to 50%. EIX and SCE have worked to maintain a strong balance sheet and create financial flexibility. We are pleased that we are able to benefit from these prudently conservative balance sheets at both the holding company and SCE as we continue to invest in utilities and work through the new pressures created by wildfire cost recovery concerns. While we await the 2018 GRC decision, comparing results with prior-year periods will be somewhat less meaningful. We expect to report a true-up in the quarter we receive a proposed decision. That concludes my remarks. Laurence, please open the call for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. Our first question comes from Greg Gordon of Evercore. ISI. Your line is open.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Thanks. Good afternoon.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hi, Greg.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Hi, Greg.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
So just to review – I understand – I think you were pretty clear, but I was distracted for a moment on the wildfire insurance premium costs that you've incurred for this year. You're basically amortizing that amount just on a ratable basis over four quarters, is that correct, until you know better?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
That's correct, Greg. That's correct, Greg.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
All right. And then the second question was on the comment you just made relative to the equity ratio. Can you reiterate what you said with regard to the ability to not use the write-off against the equity ratio and what that might mean for the purposes of calculating your earnings power?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
So 49.7% is the equity capitalization ratio with the charge included, so including the effects of the $448 million after-tax write-off. If the CPUC approves the settlement as it's written, then we would be able to, for purposes of the equity capitalization ratio, ignore that charge in that event which the equity capitalization ratio would be 50%.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Got you. Understood. And then, Pedro, can you talk me through maybe a little bit more what it is that you hope to specifically in an optimal outcome get from a legislative action here? Because we've been monitoring the process from afar, and so far the language that's been proposed in the bills doesn't really appear to be a demonstrable improvement to the current sort of uncertainty of the current framework? And if you disagree with that, I'd love to hear your perspective on it. And if you agree with it, what do you think has to sort of improve or evolve to get to where we have a standard that prevents the PUC from using this 20/20 hindsight prudent manager standard to effectively disallow what should be recoverable costs?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Yeah. Greg, I think that's actually well said and I wouldn't disagree. It is very early in the game. And at this stage in the legislative process, as we look across the whole landscape of bills, the language that's being proposed, I think I even acknowledged in my remarks none of them deals squarely yet with the whole issue of reforming utility liability and the concept of inverse condemnation and strict liability. It is early in the process. We were encouraged, as I mentioned in the remarks, by the fact that you've now had a few weeks back Governor Brown and the key legislative leaders, all come out and say that this is part of a broader issue that needs to be worked on for the state. And one of the five areas they mentioned was reforming the issue of how utilities are liable in these cases. So there isn't a vehicle today that actually has languages specific to this. There's, I think, a clear recognition in that governor and legislative leader statement that this is one of the elements that needs to be addressed. It's now May 1 and the reality is that there's a lot of time and process that takes place in Sacramento in any bill between now and the finish line. I think that certainly the discussions that are being held in Sacramento lead me to believe and encourage me that there's good understanding and appreciation on the part of legislators of how important this piece is to the state and to utilities as enablers of a lot of what the state wants to do. But that has not yet translated into specific words on a page in a proposed bill that address the issue. I think this is something that is certainly working hard with the other utilities and other stakeholders to advocate strongly that this is something that will be really good to work on this year in this session. But I think as I said all along, it'll take time throughout the session and there might be some pieces that even spill over into the following session. At this point, though, it's just too early to comment on any one bill or what the vehicle would be that could end up getting amendments that could address the issue, and it's just something we're working and live radio every day in Sacramento.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Okay. Thank you both. Have a great day.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
You bet. Thanks, Greg. Appreciate it.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question on the line comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Bank of America. Your line is now open.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Hey. Good afternoon.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hi, Julien.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Hi, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Hey. So I wanted to follow up here on the conversations. I understand they may be confidential with respect to the Round Fire, but just a little bit more of the context behind why move forward on the path to settle at this point in time given some of the various avenues that this could take from an inverse condemnation perspective. Is there something that differs with respect to the Thomas Fire and others that perhaps might not be obvious at the same time?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
No, Julien, it's a good question and I think you got it right, right at the ear. The first part of the question, there's probably not a whole lot we can offer in terms of comment. Really, what I can say and, Adam Umanoff, our General Counsel, can do clean up here, if there's anything else that he would add. But all of these are very case specific, in particular, what we believe that the concerns about the application of inverse condemnation with strict liability, that's something that's cost-cutting. And you'll see the same theme show up, I believe, in multiple cases across the various utilities, right? You're seeing it in PG&E cases. You'll see it in our cases. The circumstances that might lead to discussions among the various parties in any given case, those are pretty case-specific. So suffice it to say that in the case of Round Fire, there's a number of parties involved. There has been interest in having discussions that could lead potentially to a mutually beneficial outcome, may or may not, is about all I can say about that one, but it made sense to ask the courts to delay the date as you saw in our comments here to see whether in this specific case, it makes sense to consider a resolution or not. Regardless of that, again, you will see us press hard on the topic, not only legislation in Sacramento per Greg's question, but for your question, you'll see us push it hard in Court cases in any and all of these fire-related cases wherever courts are applying inverse with strict liability. That's common. But certainly, we believe that the facts in general are strong. The facts are very strong in the Round Fire case, and so it was an issue about – that's an issue about the key specifics in this particular one where it might make sense to continue some discussions with parties confidentially. And Adam's giving me the eye sign that nothing to add. Okay.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
All righty. Excellent. I'm sorry, were you going to add something?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
No. Does that make sense?
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Yeah. Indeed. I'll leave it there. And then secondly, if I can follow up on the WEMA side of things, can you elaborate a little bit on what is in the filing beyond insurance and how you think about that potentially over the next few years, and as well as kind of the inflation factor you're seeing on insurance as you look to gain recovery on that? And how to think about the magnitude and the potential to get recovery in future years?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Let me kick start this one and Maria or Adam or others may want to add. We see a number of costs potentially coming down the pike, leading with new insurance costs. So that's how we thought it was prudent and timely to make the request on the WEMA case. And in that one, in our filing, we requested that the effective date be the date of filing, again because we expect that there may be decisions coming down the pike shortly around insurance that would merit having that avenue to start recording costs right away. So that deal becomes a vehicle that provides an avenue for a broader set of potential recovery items. In terms of the insurance market, I think Maria put this up in her comments, but without commenting to any specifics, certainly the data point that you saw around the $121 million premium or the $300 million tranche that we entered in December was a strong sign that this is a market that continues to tighten, both in terms of the pricing, as you saw from that data point, as well as this general availability. So we continue to see that headwind ahead in terms of insurance. And therefore, I have a pretty strong expectation that the costs that we see ahead of us will likely exceed anything that we put into our 2018 General Rate Case filing back before this round of wildfires. And therefore, it's prudent to have the WEMA vehicle open. Maria, Adam, anything to add?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
So there are a few things that we included in our WEMA request, Julien, around not just the insurance claims, but – I'm sorry, the insurance premiums, rather, but also payments to satisfy claims. We also included legal expenses associated with all of that, also financing costs because as we are incurring additional costs, we might have additional financing expenses as well. So we had that as a sort of broad range of items that we included in the WEMA. As Pedro pointed out, obviously the reason we asked for the WEMA to be effective as of the date of application is because we do see insurance costs continuing to be robust and in excess of what we have requested in our pending GRC. So, we did think it was important for us to make that request of the timing as well.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Right. But what's the pace of inflation, sorry, to clarify, if you kind of look at it and layer in incremental tranches?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
So, we're out in the market right now and that wouldn't be, I think, the best thing for us to be talking about. We still have some numbers we need to get back from carriers.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Thank you all.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thanks, Julien.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question on the line is from Jonathan Arnold of Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.
Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Good afternoon, guys.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hi, Jonathan.
Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
So, one question I was going to ask, just a housekeeping item on the parent. Are you still expecting that kind of $0.25 to $0.30 ballpark for the year as the right zip code, and anything to say about profitability or kind of progress towards breakeven, et cetera at EEG?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
So you'll see as you go through the slides that we provided that we have said again that $0.25 to $0.30 is parent company drag. We're still working EE towards a breakeven run rate by the end of 2019. That's pretty much included in that quarter as well, Jonathan.
Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
No change there? And then just sort of mechanically with the WEMA application as it pertains to the insurance, obviously, you started booking the additional expense. But if successful – if it's granted, would you then end up deferring the incremental additional or would that include the $300 million coverage piece that was – I guess, predated the application? Just help us understand the mechanics of, if they grant that or not.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Sure. So the $121 million premium that we incurred last year, towards the end of last year, that's really covered in our Z Factor filing. So that's the recovery mechanism for that. The WEMA would be the recovery mechanism for insurance premiums going forward that are incremental to what's in the GRC, as well as some of those other categories that we've requested that I mentioned in response to the earlier question.
Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. Great. And then just on the question of the legislature, we've obviously seen I think probably more activity going on in the Senate. And then there was the initial statement from the Governor back, I guess, in the middle of March now, Pedro, as you referenced. Has the administration sort of continued to be engaged on this? Because when they laid it out originally, they talked about a particular committee sort of taking the lead which doesn't seem to have done much. And in the meantime, these other committees have all been kind of busily moving the bill, as you mentioned, along. I was just curious, like do you think things are going to emerge more in the Senate? Is the assembly going to come into this late in the game? And where does the administration stand in your current estimation?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Yeah. Jonathan, I would say that all three of those bodies – the Governor's Office, the Senate, and the Assembly – are very engaged at this point. And obviously, there's roles that each play. Ultimately, any bill before becoming law needs to have Senate and Assembly versions, and it needs a signature from the Governor. And so I'll just say that I think all the relevant parties are involved. There's a sequency thing, and any one week you might see committee meetings on the Senate side and another week where you see committee meetings on the Assembly side, and discussions that take place in between but folks are engaged.
Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
So your comments about that sort of subsequent to the sort of mid-March statement, that's still the continuing dialogue?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Yes, absolutely there is continuing dialogue. And not just with us, I mean, I think the Senate, the Assembly and the Governor's Office are talking, not just with utilities but they're talking with a lot of different parties. So remember, they're not just trying to solve the utility liability issue, they're seeking to solve the entire statewide issue, and we support that. I mean, you could – we're not just running a utility here, we're also residents of California. We want to see the state get this right. As a resident of the state, I need to see them also deal with prevention and deal with hardening of infrastructure and deal with all the things that the Governor and the legislative leaders outlined along with the utility liability piece. In the context of that, you're engaged with labor and you're engaged with environmental groups, you're engaged with their government agencies or expert in fires and forest management, and that's really critical and we see a lot of activity taking place. As with anything that involves the complexities of the legislature, and it is hard what these folks do, I can't guarantee any specific outcome but very encouraged that they are so engaged at this stage of the process.
Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
And you did repeat your comments from last quarter that you could see some of this sort of still into next year, but I think I'm sensing you sound a little more upbeat than you did then perhaps, but that predated the Governor. So am I correct there?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Jonathan, I think the best way I can answer that and probably this will be a little bit of a non-answer, but I continue to be – I think we continue to be encouraged by the level of engagement. And I think there's a lot of focus on addressing this in an urgent way. I think since our last call and seeing that statement from the Governor, they've talked about doing things urgently. At the same time, we've all been around the block and recognize this complex stuff and there's a lot of pieces to this. And from a – making sure that we're just giving our investors perspective that are right down the middle of the fairway. I'm not going to guarantee that the A, B, C and D are all going to get done in 2018 or that C might slip into 2019. It's just too early at this stage of the process to be making comments about this one feels more likely than that one. What I can tell you, and I think it's consistent with before, just this time supported by more data points three months since the last call, we continue to see data points every week of the right conversations happening and the right folks engaged.
Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Perfect. Thanks, Pedro. Appreciate it.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Yeah. Thanks, Jonathan.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question on the line is from Christopher Turnure of J.P. Morgan. Your line is now open.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Hello?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hello? Laurence, we may have lost him. You want to maybe try again?
Christopher James Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Can you guys hear me?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Now, we can.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Now, we can.
Christopher James Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
All right. Sorry about that. Maria, you had talked about the Z... [Technical Difficulty] (40:12)
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
We did lose you again in case you can hear us.
Operator:
One moment. Let me get Mr. Turnure back on the line. Mr. Turnure, you may now state...
Christopher James Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Sorry. Can you guys hear me?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Yes.
Christopher James Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. So I'll try again here. The Z-Factor is the recovery method for the insurance premium from late last year and then future purchases would go through the WEMA account. Could you maybe step back, Maria, and give us a sense as to how historically insurance purchases had been recovered and what the plan is if you ultimately do not get approval for any of these premiums?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
So historically, insurance premiums have routinely gone through our General Rate Case process. We have a program. I think you may have heard previously, typically June to June, it's part of the process. It's one of the costs that we include when we file our General Rate Case and we recover it that way. It has not been the case that – we have seen increasing wildfire insurance costs over the years, but they have been times in such a way that they fit into our General Rate Case process. The Z-Factor filing is a process that is designed to accommodate costs that were effectively unforeseeable at the time that we filed our General Rate Case, so in this instance, a cost that was unforeseeable at the time that we filed our 2015 General Rate Case. We think it's very obvious that this cost is unforeseeable and that the impact of wildfires and climate change and increasing frequency and intensity of fires that's impacted the market and so we filed that. The process there is $10 million deductible, it's part of the FERC jurisdictional, and then the balance is requested from the CPUC. That balance was about $107 million. The WEMA application is really about – it's effectively the Wildfire Expense Memorandum Account. That account – that process is – we've asked to establish the WEMA. We've asked it to be effective as of the date that we made the application. Doing it that way and getting approval of that timeframe would then allow us to incur additional or incremental wildfire premium costs above what's in our GRC and still be able to recover them without question around retroactive rate-making. That process – the different process in the Z-Factor, the Z-Factor is an advice letter, the WEMA application is an application. We have been recording the premiums that we incurred last year because while we have some experience with the Z-Factor, we don't have anything that's exactly on point with this particular application. So no precedent in terms of using it, no precedent about wildfire insurance, and so you know that we have been recording the expense. It's been running through the P&L. We do think that we have very strong arguments in both the Z-Factor application and the WEMA application – the advise letter, rather, and the WEMA application that support approval of this. We'll have to go through the process to see whether or not the CPUC – when they act on it and what the answer is, of course.
Christopher James Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay, great. That's a very comprehensive answer. I appreciate the detail on that. My second question goes to the judge's decision in the Butte Fire case from, I think, a week or so ago. That decision kind of talked about a number of factors, but clearly the CPUC decision from late November was not enough to get a change of opinion there and it seemed to defer to, precedent from higher courts as really the thing to lean on and the judge did not want to kind of overstep his bounds there. I was wondering if you can give us any kind of legal thoughts around there and any kind of read-throughs to your processes.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Probably the short way to describe it is I think this was an expected result at the trial court level. I think it has been a view that cases like this ultimately, regardless of whether the trial court level judgment is for or against, these cases likely end up in the appellate courts. And so, in that sense, I don't think it was necessarily surprising. I think the judge in the Butte case, in the tentative ruling believe that some of the prior cases, Barham and Pac. Bell applied here. And, as you said, they didn't see the CPUC decision on the San Diego WEMA creating a distinct situation. But I think the judge is basically pointing to the appellate court system in terms of some of the fundamental arguments that PG&E laid out. And so this is, I think, just a waypoint along the road. Adam, is there anything you would add or correct in that?
Adam S. Umanoff - Edison International:
I mean, one comment I'd make – it's Adam Umanoff, the General Counsel – is this judge said, listen, if it's a policy issue look to the legislature to solve the policy concern. On the constitutional claims, I'm not going to make a decision. I'm going to follow past precedent and leave it to, as Pedro said, the appellate courts to make a decision on those constitutional claims. Expected, and there's now an opportunity to appeal to an appellate court the decision of this trial judge.
Christopher James Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. And anything within the decision that would slow the process maybe versus your expectations going in of the appeal?
Adam S. Umanoff - Edison International:
Well, there's – you typically take a writ to appeal a decision like this to an appellate court, and that writ can be granted or denied by the appellate court. One of the factors in this case is the judge asked the parties whether or not this legal question should be certified as appropriate for an appeal. We'll see what his final ruling is. But if he does that, it won't bind an appellate court to accept the appeal, but it sort of improves the likelihood that that will happen. So there's a prospect that we may at least get an appellate court to hear the issue. Uncertain. We don't know until we see this judge's order and we see what decision is taken by an appellate court to hear an appeal.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
And my layperson's understanding of that step by the judges is it's typically when you see cases being appealed, you get the party that did not prevail advancing that appeal. Here you have the judge in a sense making comments about the appropriateness or value of an appellate court considering the matter. So it's a little level of emphasis on it.
Adam S. Umanoff - Edison International:
Agreed.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
That's the legal view from the guy who did not go to law school.
Christopher James Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Got you. And that sounds perhaps, at least directionally, better than an alternative to that.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Exactly.
Christopher James Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Perfect. Okay. Thank you, guys, very much.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Shar Pourreza from Guggenheim Partners. The line is now open.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Hey. Good afternoon, guys.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hey, Shar.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
You touched on actually most of the questions, but just real quick one on the investigation that you're sort of conducting. I understand that you obviously can't predict when it'll be completed. But sort of as you think about the process, what like phase in the process are you at? And sort of as you complete the investigation from a timing perspective, is it something you would release before CAL FIRE investigation results, or would you wait for CAL FIRE to come out prior to your conclusions?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
There's probably not a lot we can comment on there, although on that last point, it's pretty safe to say that we would want to wait and see not only what CAL FIRE's view, but potentially the views of some of the other parties investigating the matter. But I think as a general statement, particularly in cases like this that has some complexity to them, they're all different, there isn't a cookie cutter as to the process necessarily or what the phase we're in, et cetera. Some level, still early days. We know, because we haven't seen a CAL FIRE report, that that investigation is continuing. We understand that the CPUC Safety and Enforcement Division is doing their investigation. We understand Ventura County Fire is doing theirs. We continue to look at information in terms of our investigation. So, a long-winded way of saying probably not a whole lot we can help with in terms of providing information or expectations on timing at this point, Shar, which I apologize for that, but it just is what it is.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
No, it's okay. And then I'm just going to ask one more and I'm sure you're going to not be able to answer this one. But I know the timing question around legislation has come up a little bit and...
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Yeah.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
...it's very difficult for you to sort of assess when and what legislation. But when you sort of think about the bid-ask on sort of what you guys want versus a worst-case outcome, the amendments around 1088 seems somewhat restrictive and not highly constructive. And I actually argue that some of your prepared remarks may have been a little bit more cautious than I've heard before in the past, outside of sort of mentioning the governor's bipartisan support, i.e. comments. I mean, is it – given where we are in the year, I mean, it seems very maybe unlikely that you'll see something from a legislative standpoint get enacted, and is it something that we're likely going to see into next year? I mean, this is – it's been on everyone's minds and I know it's...
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
No. I know. I know. Although, it's funny, Shar, it sounds like Jonathan was reading my comments as more optimistic and you're reading them as more conservative. So I'll get you two in a room. But no, look, the intent of the prepared remarks and, hopefully, all you hearing us answer in this live Q&A, is really down the middle of the road. It's May 1 in a session that extends to August, on a matter that's very complex and it involves not just the utility liability piece, but all the other pieces that I was mentioning earlier. I'm not trying to signal any specific read left or right here, trying to be pretty transparent about – very encouraged that folks are engaged, right? Just to be blunt and honest about it, three months ago we probably didn't know what level of engagement we'd be seeing at this stage. So, we're seeing good engagement. We're seeing supportive comments from the governor and legislative leaders. We're seeing a lot of folks discussing this in Sacramento. That's very encouraging. It's certainly very feasible that we could have legislation in this session, that certainly could be the case. At the same time, it's complex. It's only May. August is a long ways away. And so I also don't want to paint an overly rosy picture here because we just don't know. A lot that still needs to be worked out. There's legislators' work, not only with utilities, but all the other stakeholders that are engaged on this. So I'm sorry, I don't think I gave you any new information there other than trying to strip all the color out of it and give you a sense of just really trying to paint a picture that's down in the middle of the road.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Hey, it's worth a shot. And then just lastly on your past renewal of maintaining and supporting the dividend, can you at least confirm that maybe part of that decision could've been based on your own internal investigation or is that – it's not somewhere you want to head?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
I think when we talked about this – the common dividend issuance in the last call, we said that our board looked at a broad range of potential negative outcomes, that we certainly had homework going on at that time. And that homework includes every scrap of information that we had at hand at that point, including that statements that folks made and our own view of investigation, our own view of, again, not just investigation in the sense of what's the expected case or what's the more likely outcome. We deliberately used the words broad range of potential negative outcomes to communicate that I think our board was not necessarily hinging on this is where the midpoint is or this is an expected outcome. They looked at a broad range that was colored by everything we knew at that point. So, that's probably about as well as I can answer that.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Thank you very much. That's helpful. Thanks, guys.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
You bet. Thanks, Shar. Take care.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Thank you.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Bye.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Lapides from Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Hey, guys. Thank you for taking my question.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Sure, Michael.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Hi, Michael.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Just curious about the balance sheet, both at the parent level and the SoCalEd level. How much incremental capital spend do you think the parent balance sheet and the SoCalEd balance sheet could take if some of these things come through, meaning the incremental hardening to protect for future wildfires and significant electrification spend, and let's say you get your rate case passed. I'm just trying to think about how much could you actually spend on the capital side and grow rate base without necessarily needing external financing up at the parent?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Michael, it's Maria. So I think back when we first filed the General Rate Case, the 2018 General Rate Case and we had the request out there, we did say that we were able to absorb that with the existing balance sheet. I think that as we move forward in time, we have identified a number of other opportunities and the size of which is yet to be determined, frankly, because we are still going through the process on the medium and heavy duty TE application. We only have a PD there at this point. We haven't filed our Phase II Charge Ready application yet. But as Pedro mentioned, we're looking at that and what the size of that should be in light of the Governor's order around the 5 million electric vehicles and our view of the need for 7 million electric vehicles on the light duty side going forward. So there are a number of other opportunities out there that – and you mentioned a few as well, the hardening of the infrastructure and the response to increasing wildfire risk. We have things that we talked about in the past as well, storage opportunities and the like. All of which are in support of the climate policies in California. I think at this point in time, first we'd have to size that basket of opportunity and get PDs or final decisions on those before we could really comment on the sort of balance sheet impact that that would have, because you line them all up, there's a lot of opportunity out there. We have to see, one, where the quantum is, and then over what time period the investment would be made because that's also a pretty important factor.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Yeah. That last point, I'd just like to put an accent on that because it's, I think, easy to focus on big headline numbers in terms of potential opportunity. But a lot of these, particularly the programs that are incremental that are not included in our General Rate Case, have a rose to them, right? And it's all about helping us to get to that 20%, 30% mark on greenhouse gas reduction. So there's a longer timeline to those that can also be part of managing the equation.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
How do you think about how much in terms of – how do you think about how much potential wildfire-related costs if you start settling claims you could absorb knowing that there's likely going to be a little bit of regulatory lag before recovery would begin, before you would need incremental financing debt or equity up top at the HoldCo?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
When we had our fourth quarter call, I think you may remember that we talked a lot about – or a little bit anyway, about sort of the balance sheet and the flexibility that we have. There is an impact, obviously, we see some reduced cash flow as a result of the SONGS settlement should be proved, and that impact as well as obviously the elimination of bonus depreciation, it has a casual impact. So there are a lot of moving pieces, Michael. I think that we would have to see what all of those pieces were and at what point in time each of them occurs back to the timing impacts. The timing differences or the timing of some of these outcomes or decisions actually does make a difference.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
It's – and I think, Maria, you said this towards the tail end of your comments of how we are seeing the benefits of having been able to approach these storms with a strong balance sheet, and so that just give us a level of flexibility as we think about those impacts that will be different if we had been – had not been a stronger balance sheet as we went into it.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Got it. One last one. A totally different topic. There's a lot going on in California and a lot of it is related to things that would help reduce greenhouse gas emissions. And obviously, the renewable build continues unabated out there. Just curious, when do you see or when does the ISO see this potentially requiring a significant uptick again in transmission investment? It feels like the word transmission and investment are a little bit on the quiet side right now in California. But I know how the cycles work and eventually, that cycle will retake off somewhere down the road.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Yeah. That's something that the ISO, I think, will continue to study. Their last version of the transmission plan for the state, I think, acknowledged that it wasn't fully baking in the need for 50% renewables by 2030, for example. So that's homework yet to be done. So I think the short answer to that is stay tuned. At the same time, though, I think that the mix of resources we'll see across the state to serve that 2030 mark will be a very different mix from the mix we would've all guessed if we were doing this 10 years ago. It won't all just be all power, it won't all be just generation. You saw in the clean paper that SCE released end of last year that we see the state in order to meet the greenhouse gas reduction targets while at the lowest possible cost. We see it needing to rely on a pathway that's using 80% carbon-free resources, and in order to balance that which would mean a lot of renewables – not all of that 80% will be renewables but a lot of it will be. We see that needing a fair amount of storage to balance that out. So I'll just say to point out that, whereas, if we were solving this 10 years ago, the answer would have probably been pretty quickly, it's just mix of renewables and gas-fired plants and those are all the options, and they all happen in the bulk power and you need transmission for all of them. I think in this new world we're headed into over the next decade, some of it may be that, but probably more of it will be distributed and a lot more of it will be storage than before, and that's going to alter how I think ultimately the ISO views the transmission need. So that's the long-winded version of saying, stay tuned.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Got it. Thank you, Pedro. Thank you, Maria. Much appreciated.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Yeah. You bet, Michael.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Thanks, Michael.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Well, Sam, I think we've come down to the bottom of the hour here.
Sam Ramraj - Edison International:
Yeah. So we just want to thank you for joining us today, and please call if you have any follow-up questions. So that's going to conclude our call this afternoon, and thanks for dialing in everyone.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. And that concludes today's conference call. Thank you very much for your participation. You may now disconnect at this time. Have a great day.
Executives:
Sam Ramraj - Edison International Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International Kevin M. Payne - Southern California Edison Co. Adam S. Umanoff - Edison International Ronald Owen Nichols - Southern California Edison Co.
Analysts:
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC Christopher James Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.
Operator:
Good afternoon, and welcome to the Edison International Fourth Quarter 2017 Financial Teleconference. My name is Ash, and I will be your operator today. Today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Sam Ramraj, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Ramraj, you may begin your conference.
Sam Ramraj - Edison International:
Thank you, Ash, and welcome, everyone. Our speakers today are President and Chief Executive Officer, Pedro Pizarro; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Maria Rigatti. Also here are other members of the management team. Materials supporting today's call are available at www.edisoninvestor.com. These include our Form 10-K, prepared remarks from Pedro and Maria, and the teleconference presentation. Tomorrow, we will distribute our regular business update presentation. During this call, we'll make forward-looking statements about the outlook for Edison International and its subsidiaries. Actual results could differ materially from current expectations. Important factors that could cause different results are set forth in our SEC filings. Please read these carefully. The presentation includes certain outlook assumptions as well as a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure. During the question-and-answer session, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. I will now turn the call over to Pedro.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thanks, Sam, and good afternoon, everyone. Edison International delivered excellent fourth quarter and full year results, but we faced significant challenges in December and into January of this year due to wildfires and the related legal and regulatory framework in California. Governor Brown recently referred to a new normal with respect to wildfires, and the fundamental risks this poses to our utility are top of mind at all levels of our company. I will discuss our strategy to address wildfire risk, but first let me make a brief comment on our full year results. 2017 core earnings were $4.50 per share, which were $0.18 above the midpoint of our earnings guidance range and also well above consensus EPS. These results were driven by SCE's strong operating performance and additional tax benefits during the year. The EIX holding company also had better-than-expected cost performance in the fourth quarter and this contributed to our positive overall results. These results exclude the non-core impact of tax reform and the revised SONGS settlement. Today, the Board of Directors of Edison International declared its first quarter common stock dividend of $0.605 per share. Prior to declaring the dividend, the Board evaluated the information available, including information pertaining to the wildfires in December 2017 and the mudslides in Montecito in January 2018, and determined that the California law requirements for the declaration were met. Wildfires pose a risk statewide, impacting the entire economy. Communities across California have been tragically affected as climate change has increased the severity and the frequency of wildfires in recent years. Long-term drought in California and forest management policies have resulted in the build-up of unmanaged vegetation. The state has nearly 130 million dead trees on approximately 9 million acres due to prolonged drought conditions and bark beetle infestation. The combination of these conditions, along with decades of more buildings being permitted and constructed in higher fire risk areas, have contributed to catastrophic wildfires, with 8 of the state's 20 most destructive wildfires having occurred in just the last three years. This is a statewide crisis that needs a statewide solution. We are engaged with state leaders, including the Governor's office, legislative leaders and stakeholders across the economy on the solutions we believe are needed. First and foremost is the prevention and mitigation of catastrophic wildfires with sufficient fire suppression resources, and effective policies around vegetation management, hazardous fuels reduction, and zoning regulations for residential and commercial development in high fire risk areas. Second, our state's infrastructure must be hardened with stronger building codes in high fire risk areas. Utilities and other operators of critical infrastructure must also partner with state agencies on improved standards for climate resilient infrastructure. As we think about how we design and operate our system, we should consider that roughly a quarter of our service territory is in designated high fire risk areas. We should evaluate the safety impacts, along with the reliability and cost tradeoffs, of steps like undergrounding more of the distribution network in selected areas, installing steel or composite poles instead of wood ones in specific locations and using further preventive public safety shutoffs of power under high-risk conditions, such as red flag warnings, which we have done selectively in the past. Third, when a catastrophic event occurs, in spite of all these efforts, we need thoughtful policies around how financial risks are allocated, including fire suppression costs and damages. As a reminder, California's courts have held investor-owned utilities strictly liable, regardless of fault, for property damages and attorney's fees if utility equipment is found to be a substantial cause of a wildfire. This means that the utility can do everything right in the operation and maintenance of its equipment, but still be on the hook for these costs. The California courts have held utilities liable regardless of fault by applying the principle of inverse condemnation, a principle typically applicable to government, not to private entities. The assumption is that like a government entity that can pass along to its taxpayers costs and risks incurred for the public good, IOUs can socialize wildfire costs among their customers in rates. However, as many of you know, the CPUC recently denied San Diego Gas & Electric's application for cost recovery of about $380 million of costs above their insurance coverage. We see legal, regulatory and legislative policy pathways to resolve these issues. Starting with the legal front. We recently filed a motion in our Round Fire case, a 2015 fire near Bishop, California, challenging the application of inverse condemnation. Yesterday, we filed a motion for leave to file an amicus in the PG&E Butte Fire case also challenging the application of inverse. In the regulatory arena, we filed a joint application with PG&E for rehearing of the CPUC's decision in SDG&E's Wildfire Expense Memorandum Account, or WEMA, application. We also recently filed comments in PG&E's Butte Fire WEMA. On legislative policy changes, in addition to the priorities I mentioned on fire prevention and suppression and improved standards for climate resiliency, we believe that the allocation of costs and financial risk must be addressed. That starts with exploring ways to reform the application of inverse condemnation with strict liability to utilities. It also includes addressing the high cost of fire suppression, which typically exceeds state budget levels each year. In addition, increasingly high premiums for wildfire insurance coverage should be a part of the discussion, as they affect parties far beyond the utility sector. I would like to note that despite our best efforts and great sense of urgency here, all of this will take time and creates uncertainty. However, we also believe that the state will ultimately address the risks and issues surrounding wildfires and other climate change impacts, because California's ambitious environmental policies require strong, healthy utilities. On that note, I would like to now touch on a few key trends that we continue to see, providing a strong growth engine at the utility for the foreseeable future. Last October, SCE released a white paper that outlines our blueprint for California to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution by its ambitious 2030 goal. The clean power and electrification pathway has received a great response and support from community organizations, customers, environmentalists and labor unions. As you have seen in the white paper, we estimate that, to meet the 2030 goals, California must have a robust, modern electric grid supplied by 80% carbon-free energy. We believe California will need more than 7 million electric vehicles, and the electrification of one-third of space and water heaters in increasingly energy-efficient buildings. We continue to engage in significant outreach to key stakeholders and pursue initiatives to help the state meet California's 2030 goals. A related initiative is the transportation electrification application that was filed in January 2017 that included $574 million of potential capital spending in two groupings; fast track projects and larger, longer-term projects, which will require more detailed consideration. Last month, the Commission approved five of the six fast track priority projects we proposed, totaling $10 million in capital spend. The Commission process continues with respect to the longer-term review projects, and we are still expecting a proposed decision in the second quarter. Energy storage is a big component of the electric grid in our analysis. Legislation is beginning to reflect this as well. And Assembly Bill 2868, signed in 2016, added opportunities for programs and investments of an additional 500 megawatts of distribution-level energy storage systems, distributed equally among the IOUs. So, SCE's share is a 166 megawatts. On March 1, we will file our Energy Storage Procurement and Investment Plan application, which will include AB 2868 proposals for energy storage programs and investments, in addition to the usual procurement of energy storage through other RFOs. With respect to the 2018 general rate case, we filed updated testimony on February 16 to reflect the impacts of tax reform. We have a hearing date set for March 19 to discuss this updated testimony and any comments provided by intervenors. Once that hearing is completed, we will see if the Administrative Law Judges require any other briefings before issuing a proposed decision. We cannot speculate on the timing for a proposed decision and subsequent Commission decision, but I'll say that given where we are today, we would expect the final decision before year-end. Turning to SONGS, we announced a revised settlement that was the result of multiple mediation sessions in 2017 and January 2018 with a diverse set of parties. We weighed the reasonable range of potential outcomes and determined that this outcome is in the best interest of our customers and our shareholders. If approved by the CPUC, this settlement will eliminate further uncertainty and it will bring closure to what otherwise could have turned into very lengthy litigation after factoring in likely appeals in the absence of settlement. The revised settlement will resolve all issues under consideration in the OII and will also result in the dismissal of a federal lawsuit currently pending in the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals, challenging the CPUC's authority to permit rate recovery of San Onofre costs. Maria will provide additional information in her remarks, but in summary, our 2017 financial statements reflect the impacts of the revised settlement on our company. We will work with the other parties to complete the steps in this proceeding and we are hoping for a swift Commission decision given that all the parties involved in the mediation joined the settlement. I would like to now touch on a few of the key non-financial metrics our Board uses in measuring our performance in delivering safe, reliable, clean and affordable electricity to our customers. While we had challenges in 2017 with some of our goals, we saw strong trends in the second half of the year and we'll work hard to meet or exceed the 2018 goals approved by our Board. Operational and service excellence starts with safety for our workers and for our public. This has been a major priority across our company and is at the top of our core values. Our 2017 performance did not meet our expectations. For example, our rate of injuries leading to days away, on restricted duty, or transferred, known as the DART rate, remains worse than industry norms. We have dedicated additional senior leadership in this area and are focused not just on tools and processes, but much more importantly on growing the safety focus of our organization's culture. We continued to improve in our customer service goals with residential customers, with SCE ranking in the upper second quartile among peer utilities in the most recent J.D. Power survey. We have narrowed the gap with our top-quartile peers, and first quartile appears achievable for SCE. On the business customer side, our peers continued to raise their performance, and so we have dipped into the upper third quartile. Kevin, his leadership team and our employees will continue to target top-quartile satisfaction for both our residential and business customers. While SCE did not meet its 2017 reliability goals, the utility began implementing a three-year improvement roadmap in 2017, and the benefits realized in the second half of the year exceeded our expectations. We expect reliability to continue to improve in 2018 with a goal of achieving top-quartile performance over the next few years. SCE achieved improved cost performance in 2017. One way we measure SCE cost efficiency is controllable O&M per customer. We also track system average rates. SCE continues to reduce O&M costs and maintain the lowest system average rate among California IOUs and is on track to achieve top-quartile performance. We have plans that should help us achieve this objective over the next couple of years. As we continue to pursue top-quartile performance across all of these operational metrics, we know that the bar will continue to be raised as we and our peer utilities take advantage of technological and analytical advances to improve outcomes. So while we have plans to achieve top-quartile performance based on current benchmarks, we know that we will need to work to push past those levels in order to keep pace. As I look ahead to the changes that will take place in California, our utility's commitment to (15:35) to operate a safe, reliable grid, achieve environmental policy outcomes, and mitigate climate change impacts. Our customers, regulators, legislators, and shareholders can rely on our employees to deliver solutions to the many challenges facing our community, and to do that from a strong foundation of operational and service excellence. With that, let me turn it over to Maria.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Thank you, Pedro, and good afternoon, everyone. My comments today will cover fourth quarter and full year results for 2017 compared to the same period a year ago, our updated capital expenditure and rate base forecasts, updates on SCE's FERC Formula Rate filing, and other financial updates for SCE and EIX. Our fourth quarter and full year 2017 results include certain non-core charges related to the recent tax reform legislation as well as the revised SONGS settlement. I will walk through both of these in a minute, but let's begin with a look at our core earnings drivers. For the fourth quarter 2017, Edison International reported core earnings of $1.10 per share, an increase of $0.13 from the same period last year. On the right side of slide 2, you will see that SCE had a positive $0.14 core variance for the quarter versus the prior year. This was mainly attributable to $0.11 per share of increased revenue related to the attrition mechanism in SCE's 2015 general rate case. There were a number of changes on the expense side as well, although these were largely offsetting. SCE's operations and maintenance costs were slightly higher due to the timing of maintenance activities. Net financing costs increased a penny per share over last year and was mainly due to $0.04 of higher interest expense, partially offset by increased AFUDC earnings. Income tax benefits were $0.05 per share higher than last year and related to increased cost of removal benefits. Finally, other costs related to property taxes and corporate expenses were $0.03 higher. For the quarter, EIX Parent and Other had a negative $0.01 per share core earnings variance, arising from the lower tax benefits on stock-based compensation at the holding company, partially offset by improved results of $0.02 per share at our competitive businesses. As I noted earlier, SCE and EIX results in the fourth quarter were impacted by two significant non-core items; the revised SONGS settlement and tax reform. SCE had $1.48 per share of non-core charges in the fourth quarter. This relates to a $448 million after-tax charge, or $1.38 per share, associated with the revised SONGS settlement and a $33 million charge, or $0.10 per share, related to tax reform. EIX Parent and Other had $1.29 per share of non-core charges in the fourth quarter, largely related to tax reform. Specifically, the re-measurement of deferred taxes resulted in a $433 million expense, or $1.33 per share. We will continue to utilize our net operating losses and credits and, based on our current analysis, EIX expects to become a cash taxpayer in 2025. Please turn to page 3. Overall, for the full year, Edison International core earnings increased $0.53 per share over prior year. This includes $0.44 per share of increased revenue related to the attrition mechanism in SCE's 2015 general rate case. Many of the earnings drivers for full year 2017 are similar to the fourth quarter, so I will only highlight two items. At SCE, lower operation and maintenance costs contributed $0.07 per share to overall performance over prior year. Also, as we have communicated in previous quarters, EIX Parent and Other realized significant tax benefits in 2017 and the $0.17 per share increase in core earnings over the prior year is largely a result of these. For the year ended 2017, we have not recorded a liability associated with the December wildfires. Given the preliminary stages of the investigations and the uncertainty as to the causes and potential damages associated with the fires, we cannot determine that a liability is probable or a reasonable range of possible losses that could be incurred. We will continue to update you as we have more information. Overall, core earnings of $4.50 per share are $0.18 per share higher than the midpoint of guidance. SCE earnings are $0.15 per share higher due primarily to increased O&M savings and financing benefits and higher income tax benefits. Edison International Parent and Other losses of $0.08 per share are $0.03 per share better than guidance, largely from better operating cost performance at the holding company and our competitive businesses. Please turn to page 4. While we continue to wait for a decision on SCE's 2018 general rate case, SCE has developed, and is executing against, a 2018 capital expenditure plan that will allow SCE to ramp up its capital spending program over the three-year GRC period, that is 2018 through 2020, to meet what is ultimately authorized in the decision, while minimizing the associated risk of unauthorized spending. As part of this, we will focus initial grid mod spending on capital that provides safety and reliability benefits, while deferring most spending that is primarily focused on integration of distributed energy resources. While we continue to present our 2019 and 2020 capital forecast at our current GRC request level, we adjusted CPUC capital expenditures in 2018 to $3.6 billion to reflect our latest planning for the year. Additionally, we made updates throughout the forecast period for changes in FERC projects. Our total 2018 CPUC and FERC capital expenditure plan is $4.2 billion. While we wait for the outcome related to the 2018 GRC, over the long term, we continue to see SCE investing at least $4 billion per year and adding at least $2 billion per year of rate base for the foreseeable future as SCE focuses on investments in the grid and continues to be a key enabler of California's ambitious climate change policy. Page 5 of the deck provides our rate base forecast. The CPUC rate base forecast is based on the weighted average rate base that we requested in the GRC for the forward-looking three-year period. That is, it reflects our 2018 through 2020 request-level capital expenditures. Once SCE receives a final decision in the 2018 GRC, our rate base forecast will be updated to reflect the authorized levels. At that time, we will also update our capital expenditures for 2019 and 2020. We have, however, updated our rate base forecast to reflect the impact of tax reform, changes in the latest FERC capital forecast, and additional incentive CWIP treatment for certain FERC projects. Please turn to slide 6 where we provide our current rate base forecast, along with the impact of changes since our November update. As you can see, tax reform has little impact on our 2018 rate base, but by 2020, it increases our rate base by $400 million. This increase is mainly related to the elimination of bonus depreciation. During the fourth quarter of 2017, FERC approved incentive CWIP treatment for three additional transmission projects; Alberhill, Mesa and Eldorado-Lugo-Mohave. This incentive treatment means that we can add capital expenditures related to those projects to rate base in the year they are spent rather than waiting for the project to be placed in service. As a result, rate base is approximately $500 million higher by 2020. However, this increase is offset by reduced capital spending as a result of improved cost efficiency and revisions of project scope and schedule related to our FERC capital projects and programs. Cost efficiencies and reduced scope account for approximately one-third of the change in capital spending. The remaining two-thirds represents a timing shift that will be added to rate base outside the forecast window. The majority of these changes are captured in the major transmission project update on slide 7. On the subject of FERC, I would also like to provide a brief update on our current FERC Formula Rate proceeding. A key matter in that proceeding is the determination of our authorized ROE. In December 2017, the FERC ruled that the requested Formula Rate would go into effect January 1, 2018, subject to refund. This means that while we are collecting our requested ROE for FERC-related revenues during 2018, these dollars will be adjusted and refunded depending upon the final decision in our proceeding. Our ROE request is comprised of a base return on equity of 10.3% plus the 50 basis point CAISO participation adder for a total ROE of 10.8% before individual project incentives. The weighted average of individual project incentives increases the requested ROE to the equivalent of about 11.5% based on our current capital expenditure plan. In the December ruling, FERC also approved the 50 basis point CAISO participation adder, although I should note that the CPUC has intervened in our FERC Rate proceeding and has requested an application for rehearing on the approval of this adder. The FERC also directed the parties to commence settlement discussions and the parties are scheduled to reconvene at FERC on May 15. Hearings will be held if the parties do not ultimately settle. We cannot speculate on the outcome of this proceeding or the timeline and will keep you updated as new information is presented. Please turn to page 8. As I noted on our third quarter earnings call, we will not be providing 2018 earnings guidance until we receive a final decision on the general rate case. However, we have laid out a few key items on this page that you should consider as you model 2018 and beyond. I've already discussed the majority of information on this page. However, please note under Other Items, we list some key considerations outside of the simplified rate base model. First, as Pedro touched on briefly in his comments, the market for wildfire insurance for California IOUs is becoming more strained. Availability is declining while simultaneously premiums are going up. In late December, we notified the Commission that SCE secured $300 million of wildfire insurance for the 2018 calendar year and requested the Commission approve recovery of the associated premium of approximately $121 million. Although we believe we have a strong case for recovery, until the CPUC addresses our request, you should assume an additional $0.29 per share drag on earnings in 2018. There may also be additional insurance costs that are in excess of what we have requested in our GRC. We do not yet have information regarding the overall cost however. Second, while we are not providing guidance for SCE, we do expect EIX Parent and Other to be an earnings drag of $0.25 to $0.30 per share for 2018. The increase in EIX Parent and Other is related to a lower tax shield as a result of the lower corporate tax rate and higher interest expense. Also included is the EPS of Edison Energy, which is expected to improve in 2018 over prior year results as we continue to work towards our goal of a run rate breakeven level of earnings by year-end 2019. Finally, we have not included any tax benefits related to share-based compensation, which was a significant factor in 2017 performance. Please turn to page 9. On February 16, we filed updated testimony in our GRC proceeding to include the impacts of tax reform legislation on our CPUC jurisdictional revenue requirement. We are now requesting a 2018 revenue requirement of $5.534 billion, a $106 million decrease from the 2017 revenue requirement. Post-test year revenue requirements have also decreased from our prior request. Overall, we estimate this latest update will result in an approximately 3% CAGR in total rate between 2017 and 2020. We will remain focused on ways to mitigate customer rate impacts, while continuing to invest in our electric grid infrastructure. EIX and SCE continue to maintain a strong balance sheet and significant financial flexibility. At EIX, we issued a $500 million one-year term loan in January to partially pay down our commercial paper program. At SCE, our average common equity component of total capitalization was 50% as of December 31, including the charge from the revised SONGS settlement. If approved by the CPUC, the revised settlement allows SCE to exclude the $448 million after-tax charge from its equity capitalization ratio. As we have already discussed, tax reform results in a lower revenue requirement and lower customer rates, although rate base will increase as a result of the elimination of bonus depreciation. Considering these items and given the potential for a large capital program based on our GRC request as well as other potential investments in support of the state's clean energy objectives, we will likely see increased financing needs in the future as higher capital spending is followed by related growth in authorized rate base and earnings. We will continually assess the most cost-effective approach to financing and could consider optimizing the use of short- and long-term debt at either EIX or SCE. We are pleased that we are able to benefit from the prudently conservative balance sheets we have maintained at both SCE and the holding company as we continue to invest in SCE. That concludes my remarks. Ash, please open the call for questions.
Operator:
Thank you, speakers. Our first question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is now open.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Hey. Good afternoon. Congratulations.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hey. Thanks, Julien.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Thanks, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
I wanted to first follow-up on the change in the Parent drag. How are you thinking about mitigating this over time. I know you just are talking about kind of preliminary 2018 guidance here and we're already asking you how you think about it in the future. But obviously, it's a pretty meaningful move. Can you give us any thoughts on the breakdown of what exactly is in that approximately a quarter of drag and how that evolves?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Sure. So, I think in the past, we've said $0.015 per month. I think this looks more like $0.02 per month plus whatever Edison Energy is doing. Obviously, over time, the Edison Energy number is one that we are working towards a breakeven run rate by the end of 2019. So, that will be part of the approach to minimize that drag. And at the holding company, tax reform has had an impact on us, while we believe that from a deductibility perspective, we'll be able to allocate that expense, the fact that we just have less of a tax shield as a result of the lower tax rate is having an impact. We always look at operating cost efficiencies from the conversation we just had with them the remarks we just made that we actually benefit a little bit in the fourth quarter at the holding company from lower costs, but that will be our approach, the same one we've used at the balance of the company.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Excellent. And I wanted to follow-up on the dividend, just in terms of the comfort level that the Board obviously had in declaring the latest dividends, how do you think about that evolving as you learn more about the potential exposures here? Maybe said differently, with respect to the discrete tests that you had to evaluate the latest dividend, how do you think about potential risks of reevaluating that in subsequent quarters here?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Julien, I'll take that. This is Pedro. I think like I said in my remarks that our Board looked at a broad range of potential negative outcomes here. I know that we're not putting out a specific estimates that we're going to have and the like, and I also recognize that a number of analysts have put out their own sets of ranges out there. But suffice it to say, we took a look at a good, broad range of potential outcomes here based on the information we have at hand. And the Board felt that – clearly very comfortable making this quarterly dividend decision. In the normal course, we always update you on dividend actions. We typically have talked about potential adjustments in annual dividend levels at the end of the year. But then we validate as a Board and do actual Board approval quarter-by-quarter. And that's, again, our normal course and that remains our normal course. So a quarter from now, we'll be having the next discussion on that quarterly dividend. Again, we did look at a broad range of potential outcomes here. So, there would have to be some very new information that changes that range of outcomes to affect the thinking further. I think it's best way that I can frame it at this point, Julien. Does that help?
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Yeah. Absolutely. So, you included the mudslides and the totality of the events that have occurred as best you understand it?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
So, again, I want to stay purposefully vague here. But we did say that we looked at – we did look at the potential impacts from all these things that happened. We're not commenting on causation or the like, but the Board did take a look at that potentially of impacts from these various events. So, I think we've taken a very diligent approach as directors, in looking at a lot of ways in which under California regulations and law and that could impact the company, and felt very comfortable about the rigor behind that broad look we took.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Great. Thank you. I'll pass it on.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thanks, Julien.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Stephen Byrd, Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.
Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Hi. Good afternoon.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Good afternoon.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hi.
Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
I wanted to talk about fire insurance, and I think you talked a bit about this in your prepared remarks. But just, generally, as you think about the costs and availability of fire insurance, I guess, really both for you, but more broadly for your customers and for others in the region, we hear some concerns about areas becoming uninsurable or costs rising significantly. How do you see that evolving in California? And I guess, relatedly, do you see a political awareness in the legislative body in terms of the need to be thinking about this holistically?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Yeah. This is Pedro. And I'll start this one and Maria or others may want to comment from the management team. First of all, you have the data from this insurance tranche that we purchased, as Maria described in her comments. I think it's safe to say that probably the most expensive premium we've paid for insurance ever. So, that alone is a data point on – there was availability, but at a much steeper cost than we've seen before. And as we continue to head into the market to secure different elements, different tranches of our towers, we are continuing to see a very tight market. To your point on awareness, that's frankly part of our job right now, to make sure that we are making policy makers aware and we're fully engaged on that. I mentioned in my remarks that we are engaged with the entire community of policy makers out there from the Governor's Office through to key legislators. We're doing a lot of that jointly with our peer utilities or other groups that are, I think, aware of the issues here across the state. And again, it's part not just of a utility issue, it's part of a statewide issue here that we think that if the severity and the frequency of these fires continues to go the way it's gone over the last three years, it's just going to continue to put added pressure on the insurance market and other parts of the economy. So, we've taken it on ourselves to make sure that we are knocking on a whole lot of doors in Sacramento right now, making sure folks are aware and bringing some of ideas to the table of what reforms may be needed to solve the statewide issue. Maria or Adam Umanoff, our General Counsel, anything you'd add?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
I would just say, Stephen, I think it's something that the regulators really need to pay attention to. When we filed our GRC, people were very appreciative of the $85 million in O&M costs that we had taken out of the system and this sort of insurance premium completely swamps that. And it does get recovered in our general rate cases, we apply for that. So, customers will ultimately bear very high costs unless and until we can make people aware of the issue.
Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Great. Thank you. Maybe just one follow-up on – physically, as we think about your utility systems, is there a lot of colocation, telecom equipment with your equipment or how do you broadly think about the degree to which there is that colocation of their telecom equipment with yours?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
I don't know that we have a fact and figure handy right now. But I'd turn over to Kevin Payne. But short answer is, there is certainly some level of colocation across the system. Kevin, anything you would add or...?
Kevin M. Payne - Southern California Edison Co.:
Yes. We've looked at the high fire areas, in particular, and usually about 70% of our facilities have colocation with other utilities.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Great.
Kevin M. Payne - Southern California Edison Co.:
Is there something specific about that you're interested in or...
Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
No, that's really – all I wanted to understand was the scope. I'll pass it on to others.
Kevin M. Payne - Southern California Edison Co.:
Okay. Thank you.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thanks, Stephen.
Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Shahr Pourreza from Guggenheim Partners. Your line is now open.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Hey, guys. My dividend question was answered. Thanks so much.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thanks, Shahr.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Sure.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from Christopher Turnure, JPMorgan. Your line is now open.
Christopher James Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Good afternoon. I wanted to make sure I had a clear understanding of the role of various agencies in the Thomas Fire investigation. Is CAL FIRE definitely the lead agency there, are there any local fire departments involved? And is there any investigations pertaining directly to the mudslides that would be separate from that, that you're aware of?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Let me pass it over to Adam Umanoff, our General Counsel, Christopher.
Adam S. Umanoff - Edison International:
Hi, Christopher. You're correct, CAL FIRE is the lead fire investigation agency, as they typically are in fires where they're actively involved in suppression. Separate from CAL FIRE, we understand that the Ventura County Fire Department is conducting some level of investigation. In addition, the Safety and Enforcement Division of the California Public Utilities Commission will be conducting an investigation. Those are the investigations that we know are ongoing.
Christopher James Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. And how should we think about cooperation and timing with the Ventura Fire Department along with CAL FIRE for any kind of ultimate conclusion on cause here?
Adam S. Umanoff - Edison International:
I wish we could give you some comfort on timing. We wish we had more comfort on timing. We don't. These investigations, historically, have taken anywhere between 12 and 18 months to complete. And I think we'd have to stick with that as a suggested timeframe. But there's really no certainty with regard to the time element of the investigations.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Adam, it's probably fair to say, it's a very much case by case based on the facts that investigators are pursuing.
Christopher James Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. And then in terms of your legal strategy out of the gate here in the court system, is there anything that you can tell us in this early stage that might make your strategy differ from some of your peers or differ from that engaged by PG&E in the Butte Fire last year? I realize it's, obviously, still early there and you're probably limited in what you can say, but I'm curious to hear your thoughts.
Adam S. Umanoff - Edison International:
Well, you're correct. It's very, very early. The investigation around cause has just commenced. So, I think it really is premature to speculate as to what the ultimate strategy will be. You will see, as we've seen in other large fires like this, an effort to coordinate before a single judge the numerous lawsuits that are brought. And in fact, there is a motion to coordinate the various lawsuits that have currently been brought in the Thomas fire. That's a procedural step to hopefully make the litigation more efficient. But that's really at the early stages as well. So, not much more we can tell at this point.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Adam, maybe I would add and I totally agree with how you framed it, and these things are really a case by case, depending on the facts of any given case. If you move up, though, to the 10,000-foot level, I think you're seeing indications that, from a policy perspective, not from an individual legal strategy for an individual case, but from policy perspective, there is a lot of good discussion and coordination with our other peer utilities in the state, and you've seen – I mentioned in my comments, we joined with PG&E in filing the application for rehearing in the San Diego WEMA case. We filed an amicus in the PG&E Butte case. So, there's a recognition that the broader themes around policy and moving beyond just inverse condemnation there, the support for a number of actions across the economy, across fire prevention and hardening infrastructure, and cost and risk allocation, those are ones where that 10,000-foot level's so important that we be aligned, and we are.
Christopher James Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Great. Thank you very much, guys.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Praful Mehta Citigroup. Your line is now open.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Thanks so much. Thanks, guys. Pedro, you made a point on the call to you mention that, all this fix around inverse condemnation is going to take some time. Just wanted to get a little bit more color on that, both from the legislative and legal side, what kind of timing are you thinking about in terms of solving inverse condemnation right now?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
So, again, this is one, where I think we can give you a sense that it will take time, but it's very hard to pin down here's the calendar or here's pacing (44:33) items at this very early stage. But let's take it in pieces. There are legal strategies. And so, those play themselves out in individual cases. And I mentioned the Butte case for PG&E or the Round Fire case, where we made our filing, right? So, there's a track around each of those cases. They say, did you see a regulatory track, right, and I don't think that we have a clarity yet in terms of a timing for the PUC to consider the various applications for rehearing in the San Diego WEMA case or in the PG&E WEMA case activity there. So, typical – looking around they're considerate , but typical CPUC timelines certainly can be in the many months to couple of years sort of timeframe. And then, finally, to the extent that legislative policy changes attract something that we're also looking at, that happens in cycles of legislative sessions. And so, we have a session that runs through later this year. It's a possibility of next year's session. So, I will tell you, we are certainly advocating about the sense of urgency on this and we would love to see a traction in this legislative session on some of these key pieces. But it's still early days and that's not guaranteed. As I mentioned in my comments that the deadline for bills has passed, but you can still get changes in those vehicles. So, there's certainly a possibility that as we continue to engage with legislators, we could see changes in vehicles that are available already and bills that have been filed. So, that could be a this year thing or it might take longer to help build the momentum and build the case. And that could extend into the next legislative session. So I'm sorry, I think I took a lot of airtime there to say it's too early to tell, but hopefully it gives you some color around some of the pathways.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Yeah. No, that's super helpful color. So appreciate that. And just quick follow-up on the legislative side. Is Senate Bill 819 still the right starting point? Is that what you're looking towards in terms of improving or changing or tweaking? Or is there a completely different bill? What's the approach on the legislative side, I guess?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Ron, you want to...
Ronald Owen Nichols - Southern California Edison Co.:
There are a number of bills out there. So, there really isn't any one specific bill that's been selected at this point that might be modified. There is vehicles there that can be addressed over time as the session goes on.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
And Ron, I think it's fair to say, I think, in general, the bills are addressing very specific issues and we've seen, for example, a number of bills around – dealing with residential insurance benefits and extending provisions for them and whatnot. What we are advocating for, as you can tell from our comments here, is a set of more comprehensive solutions to deal with this statewide problem across all the different elements. Now, that degree of difficulty then becomes harder because we're looking for more comprehensive pieces of action. So, that's why I'm saying it's so early days.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Understood. Again, thanks so much, guys.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thanks, Praful.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Jonathan Arnold, Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hey, Jonathan.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Hi guys. Thank you for the comments on this Round Fire case on inverse condemnation, I was – as you read that earlier in the week, I was curious if you have any sense of where that is in its process. I know you filed the brief, but is there a date on which the court's set to hear it or anything like that?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Sounds like a great question for a lawyer. Adam.
Adam S. Umanoff - Edison International:
Jonathan, hi. It's Adam. The court has set a hearing date to hear our motion for April 2 and that date can slip. It's always subject to change.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. And you could see either a ruling or more process after that date, just remain, wait to be seen around April 2, is that the right way to think about that?
Adam S. Umanoff - Edison International:
I think that's right. A lot depends on what the trial court does. If the trial court denies the motion, there is always the opportunity for us to appeal. These issues may very well require appellate court review not be settled at the trial court level, and that would take some significant additional time.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Am I correct that in this particular case, the stage it's at, people have just asked for inverse condemnation to be applied to the utility, but the court has yet to rule on whether that should be allowed?
Adam S. Umanoff - Edison International:
Yeah. That's a good way – Jonathan, that's a good way to describe it. In most of these cases, the plaintiffs allege that the standard of care that we have to comply with is strict liability arising from the application of inverse condemnation. They simply plead it, and we have to defend that or, in this case, we challenge it.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
So in the Butte fire case, the PG&E is trying to overturn a finding and, in your case, you're trying to sort of prevent one, effectively?
Adam S. Umanoff - Edison International:
I can't speak to the procedural status of the Butte case. I don't believe that there has been a final determination. I know that they are challenging the application of inverse condemnation.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Yeah. So, I guess, my question was in this case, has it also been applied or is it yet to be applied? That's – I just want to be sure on that.
Adam S. Umanoff - Edison International:
It is not been yet been applied in the Round Fire case.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. Great. Thank you on that. And then just, Maria, towards the end of your comments, you were talking about higher financing needs and you could look at some holdco debt or incremental debt at the utilities. You didn't specifically mention equity and, obviously, equity hasn't been part of the story at EIX, certainly, since I've been involved in covering the company. But it seems like you might have been at least floating that possibility, even though you didn't name it. Am I hearing that right or...?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Hi, Jonathan. I think, what I was really trying to say was that we have had a number of things that has impacted other companies as well in terms of tax reform and the like, and then we've also had some cash flow impacts from – assuming the SONGS settlement is approved, we have some cash flow impacts there as well. And we are waiting for our rate case to come and we have a number of other proceedings where we're also requesting capital. So, there is a lot out there and we're going to stay flexible in terms of how we finance that, either at EIX or at SCE, either with short-term debt or long-term debt. I think that's really all I was trying to say right now.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. And then just to bring it up there, in the SONGS settlement, you've asked for this last adjustment of the calculation of the equity ratio. Is settlement contingent on the Commission approving that aspect of it or what would happen if they decided there wasn't a case made for that particular element?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Well, certainly, the settlement – all of the parties have agreed to support all of the elements of the settlement. The CPUC is going through their process. At this point, I think, it's too early to really speculate on that.
Ronald Owen Nichols - Southern California Edison Co.:
Yeah. This is Ron Nichols. I just would add to that if the settlement provides for any material modification to it has to be agreed to by the parties.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. So it might be hard for the Commission to modify that, yeah, or not, we'll have to see.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Well, thanks Jonathan.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Ali Agha from SunTrust. Your line is now open.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
Thank you. Good afternoon.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hi, Ali.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Hi, Ali.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
Hello. Maria, you had mentioned that the equity ratio at SCE was 50% at the end of the year. Can you remind us what that means in dollar terms in terms of the excess equity cushion you currently have there?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
So, it's a 13-month average that we have to maintain at 48%. I am going to say, round numbers, it's about – was it...
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
More that $500 million.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
It's more than $500 million. I think it's around $600 million. So I was just looking at some of the math here as we answer your question, Ali. It's around there. It's a little bit – you can't tie it down to any particular number like consistently, just because it's a 13-month average rolling calculation that we do. But it's in that ballpark.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
I see. Okay. And then, Pedro, as you mentioned that you have various forums and parts you're looking at trying to get some clarity, closure, if you will, on inverse condemnation, et cetera. Is your sense that, for full clarity to come, you need the CAL FIRE investigation to first be complete and their determination on causes? Is that sort of the critical path item? Or from the outside, how should we be looking at and keeping a track of to say, okay, this is a key element in some clarity on this process?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Yeah. Ali, that's a good question. I think my answer is, not necessarily. I was thinking about this as separate tracks, right? So there's a track around the CAL FIRE investigation, into the Thomas Fire and causation, per se, and then what standards will be applied in terms of liability and all of that. There's this broader track around, the state has an issue, it's a big issue. Part of the issue is the concern about the application of inverse condemnation but the issue is broader than that as I mentioned earlier. And so, we're really looking for a broader statewide solution. And clearly, there's a connection between these, right? And so, if we had a very speedy resolution, and I think that would be wishing for a lot, because we would expect this will take time. Well, let's say that we had clarity upfront in terms of there's a bill that gets passed next month that resolves the application of inverse, well, then it clearly would have some impact on – once the CAL FIRE investigation concludes, that would have impact on the recourse that plaintiffs would have to get recoveries for damages. But again, I don't think that there's a serial linkage, where we have to wait for that CAL FIRE investigation and the Thomas Fire to conclude in order to work the various other paths, regulatory, legislative paths, to try and resolve the broader statewide issue. I do see those as fairly decoupled. Does that make sense, Ali?
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
It does. And just on that, to clarify your opening remarks as well, you talked about the California state goals, et cetera. Are you getting any conversations back to suggest that there is some recognition coming that, hey, to meet our ambitious climate change and other goals, this issue is directly linked and impacting that?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Yeah. Without getting into specific, who said whats, yes, I think that there is a recognition, and a lot of it is just driven by the goals and the math behind the goals, right? Let's just focus on the 40% greenhouse gas reduction by 2030, that goal alone – the state itself has looked at tools like electrification of transportation and building efficiency and renewables requiring a strong grid being a part of the solution – a major part of the solution. I'm glad that we had completed our analysis that lead to our clean energy white paper in the fall, because that, quite frankly, sharpened our thinking in terms of what it will take for the states to get there. And so, that says that if the state really wants to you get us 40% reduction and do it at the lowest possible cost to customers, there's just a whole lot of use of smart, modern, reliable grid that's needed to get 80% carbon-free resources, and get 7 million electric vehicles, and get a bunch of water heaters and space heaters that are electric and so on. And so, I think folks recognize that, but it is helpful that we have voices like the Air Resources Board which has put out their plans. You had the Governor upping the state's objective to 5 million electric vehicles. We still stand by our math, which suggests that it's – a cheaper path for the state is actually more like 7 million electric vehicles. And I think, Ali, we'll see that continue to surface in various venues. One that I'll point to coming up here is the integrated resource planning process at the CPUC, which will use different scenarios and take a look at a long-term horizon for the resource mix in California. And that, I think, will once again provide more proof points for the importance of the healthy utilities.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
Got it. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. That was the last question. I will now turn the call back to Mr. Sam Ramraj.
Sam Ramraj - Edison International:
Thanks for joining us today and please call us if you have any follow-up questions. That concludes the call, and thanks again.
Operator:
That concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at this time.
Executives:
Sam Ramraj - Edison International Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International Ronald Owen Nichols - Southern California Edison Co. Adam S. Umanoff - Edison International
Analysts:
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc. Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research) Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC
Operator:
Good afternoon, and welcome to the Edison International Third Quarter 2017 Financial Teleconference. My name is Markie, and I will be your operator today. Today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Sam Ramraj, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Ramraj, you may begin your conference.
Sam Ramraj - Edison International:
Thank you, and welcome, everyone. Our speakers today are President and Chief Executive Officer, Pedro Pizarro; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Maria Rigatti. Also here are other members of the management team. Materials supporting today's call are available at www.edisoninvestor.com. These include our Form 10-Q, prepared remarks from Pedro and Maria, and the teleconference presentation. Tomorrow, we will distribute our regular business update presentation. During this call, we will make forward-looking statements about the outlook for Edison International and its subsidiaries. Actual results could differ materially from current expectations. Important factors that could cause different results are set forth in our SEC filings. Please read these carefully. Presentation includes certain outlook assumptions, as well as reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure. During the question-and-answer session, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. I will now turn the call over to Pedro.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thank you, Sam, and good afternoon, everyone. Before I discuss our quarterly results, I would like to express my deep sorrow for the lives lost and the significant damage during the recent wildfires in Northern California. SCE has provided support to PG&E during this catastrophe, including sending 16 crews to assist with restoration efforts. We will continue with further assistance as necessary. Moments like this reaffirm the commitment that we have, and that I know we share with other utilities and with our regulators, to making the safety of our communities and our workers our number one priority. I will talk more about SCE's management of wildfire risks later in my remarks. Now, on to the quarter. Edison International reported strong third quarter earnings of $1.44 per share, which were $0.15 per share above last year's third quarter earnings of $1.29 per share. Based on the continuing strong performance at SCE and tax benefits we have received throughout the year, we have increased our 2017 earnings per share guidance to a midpoint of $4.32 per share, and tightened the range to plus or minus $0.05 per share. Maria will cover this in more detail in her remarks. Please turn to page 2 of our presentation. As I have discussed with you in the past, we believe we must be a key enabler of California's ambitious environmental policies. These are important not only to the state broadly, but specifically to our customers and stakeholders. Edison International will strengthen and grow our business, and lead the transformation of the industry by focusing on opportunities in clean energy, efficient electrification, a modernized and more reliable grid, and enabling customers' technology choices. At SCE, this means focusing on four key priorities. One, cleaning the power system with continued leadership in procurement of renewable power; two, helping customers make cleaner energy choices including distributed renewable energy resources, electric transportation and energy efficiency programs; three, strengthening and modernizing the grid; and four, achieving operational and service excellence and above all, doing so safely. At the holding company, we will continue to identify new competitive business opportunities for growth and innovation in areas where we see customer demand. Our strategy continues the long-term alignment of SCE with the state of California. Wherever possible, we have been working with others to find practical and cost-effective approaches to achieve the bold, low-carbon energy future supported by both California's government and its citizens. Significant infrastructure development and market transformations are needed to radically accelerate customers' adoption of new technologies and to ensure that all communities benefit. Public policy can enable this plan through wise investments of cap-and-trade revenues; a comprehensive integrated resource planning process that includes decarbonizing end uses of energy; efficient electrification efforts in transportation, homes, and businesses; and by ensuring that clean electricity remains affordable. Tomorrow, SCE will release a white paper that outlines our blueprint for California to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution by its ambitious 2030 goal. We build on existing state programs and policies to achieve these climate goals, while ensuring that an economy-wide transformation happens in an efficient and affordable way. Our white paper summarizes the results of detailed analysis, comparing different options for greenhouse gas reduction, and finds that an electric-led pathway will best allow California to meet its 2030 goals, and be better positioned for its 2050 goals, while minimizing cost to consumers and the economy. As you will see on the white paper, the elements include further increases in carbon-free electricity supported by energy storage, higher levels of electric vehicles than what the state has imagined to-date, and further electrification of commercial and residential building space and water heating. All of these measures will require a robust modern electric grid reinforcing our view in the long-term need for and value of our capital investments at SCE. We look forward to speaking with you further on these subjects once we release a white paper tomorrow. Let me now connect these long-term vision comments to our near-term activities. The four key strategic priorities at SCE are woven into CUPC proceedings that are ongoing, with one of the most significant being the SCE 2018 General Rate Case. The General Rate Case is continuing per the procedural schedule. We completed evidentiary hearings on August 2. The main topics litigated during the hearings were consistent with the key things of our case, including safety and reliability, grid modernization, continued infrastructure replacement and affordability. Additionally, in September, SCE, ORA and all intervenors filed briefs and reply briefs, which generally summarized and clarified their respective positions. From a procedural perspective, we have some additional public participation hearings in mid-November. And then, in early December, we will provide an update filing that reflects item such as updated escalation rates and changes to laws and regulations that have occurred since we initiated our rate case. After that, we will await a proposed decision by the ALJs and the Assigned Commissioner. At this point, we believe it is very unlikely that a commission decision on this application will be issued in 2017, given the remaining items on calendar and the timing of the issuance of proposed decisions in recent rate cases. In addition to our General Rate Case, there are ongoing proceedings at the CPUC related to transportation electrification and energy storage, which could add up to an additional $1 billion in capital spending to our forecast, and which further underscore the alignment of our strategy with California's environmental goals. A first step will be decisions on the $20 million of priority review projects in the transportation electrification application, which we filed last January. A proposed decision was expected from the CPUC in October, and we remain optimistic that we will receive guidance in 2017. SCE is undergoing evidentiary hearings for the standard longer term review project, also included in our January application totaling $550 million with a decision in that expected in May 2018. Also, as a reminder, SCE continues to procure energy storage under SCE's 580-megawatt share of the current 1,325-megawatt statewide target, set by the storage rulemaking issued by the CPUC in 2014; up to one half of this can be utility-owned. SCE has entered close to 500 megawatts of commitments through both utility-owned projects and third-party contracts, of which approximately 418 megawatts (09:08) are eligible to count against our targets. The IOUs are also required to add another 500 megawatts combined of distributed energy storage systems into their March 2018 energy storage procurement and investment plans. The SCE portion of this will be 166 megawatts. These additional megawatts were mandated through Assembly Bill 2868, and again are above and beyond the 1,225 megawatt target. The 2017 legislative session adjourned on September 15. The most significant bill that was passed this year and signed by the Governor was AB 398, which extends the cap-and-trade program, with some modifications, to 2030. Several bills that we had discussed previously were not passed by the legislature this year, but will likely remain active in some form in the 2018 session. These bills include SB 100, which would accelerate the Renewables Portfolio Standard to 50% by 2026; establish a target of 60% renewable resources by 2030; and require all electricity sold at retail to be from zero-carbon resources by 2045. Other bills are AB 813 and AB 726, which would have authorized CAISO regionalization and required the CPUC to direct IOUs to procure additional tax-advantaged renewable resources over and above those resources necessary to meet the 2020 RPS requirements. We continue to be supportive of California's leadership in addressing greenhouse gas emissions and other harmful pollutants through ambitious clean energy and environmental programs. And we will work constructively during next year's session with lawmakers to ensure that clean energy grows in a manner that is also safe, reliable, and importantly, affordable for all our customers. I started this call on the topic of wildfires, so let me return to that now. Wildfires are all too common in California, and situations like this remind us to stay vigilant in our risk management, and to be safe in our day-to-day operations. While no major wildfires are currently impacting SCE's service territory, wildfires have been a recent topic of discussion at the CPUC, both in terms of the Northern California fires and also with respect to other ongoing proceedings around cost recovery. We are engaging with regulators on this topic and on the practices and orders that we have implemented to date. These include managing the electric system with a focus on public and worker safety, as well as on reliability of the system. In addition to operating practices designed to reduce the risk of wildfires, SCE also invests significant amounts of capital to reduce wildfire risk. Examples include our pole replacement and vegetation management programs. These are all part of our mandate to provide safe, reliable, and ubiquitous electric service, even as we and our peer utilities have seen increased siting of new homes and businesses in areas with higher fire risk across the state over the past decades. Moving on to the status of the SONGS regulatory proceeding, since our last earnings call, SCE and other parties filed status reports on August 15, following the conclusion of the meet-and-confer and mediation sessions. Unfortunately, SCE and other parties were unable to reach an agreement on possible changes to the settlement. In our status report, we urged the commission to reaffirm the existing settlement on the basis that it remains fair and reasonable and in the public interest. Intervenors also filed status reports with a wide range of comments on possible adjustments to the settlement and on the process to be followed going forward. On October 10, the Assigned Commissioner and Assigned Administrative Law Judge issued a joint ruling. This ACR acknowledged that there is sufficient information in the record to assess whether the settlement continues to be in the public interest, but noted that, if the settlement were found not to be in the public interest, then additional information would be required to address the appropriate cost allocation between customers and shareholders. Consistent with the direction provided in the ACR, today we are filing an issue statement which comments on the preliminary list of issues suggested in the ACR to be addressed in this continued proceeding as well as any other issues that should be added. The next step in the process is the November 7 status conference. While the ACR included a preliminary schedule where hearings would conclude in March 2018, the ACR did not state specifically when the process will come to a final conclusion. With that, I will now turn the call over to Maria for her update on the quarter.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Thank you, Pedro, and good afternoon, everyone. My comments today will cover third quarter and year-to-date results, our updated capital expenditure and rate base forecasts, our updated earnings guidance and our updated cost of capital. Let's begin by looking at the key SCE earnings drivers for the quarter shown to the right on slide 3. For the third quarter 2017, Edison reported earnings of $1.44 per share, an increase of $0.15 from the same period last year. Included in this, SCE had a positive $0.09 variance for the quarter. SCE's revenues increased $0.18 per share in the third quarter versus the prior year. This was mainly attributable to $0.11 per share of increased revenue related to the attrition mechanism in SCE's 2015 General Rate Case. The remaining $0.07 per share were related to various CPUC items outside of the General Rate Case, including balancing account activity which is non-earnings related. SCE's operations and maintenance costs were not an earnings driver quarter-over-quarter, with $0.03 per share of savings from the ongoing implementation of various operational and service excellence initiatives offset by increased transmission and distribution line clearance and maintenance and higher software license costs. Net financing costs increased $0.01 per share over last year and was mainly due to $0.03 of higher interest expense, partially offset by increased AFUDC earnings over the prior year. Lower income tax benefits versus last year accounted for a negative $0.06 per share. Of this variance, $0.03 resulted from a true-up of 2016 income tax expense. The remaining $0.03 variance relates largely to a lower property-related deductions in the quarter that are offset in revenue. For the quarter, EIX parent and other had a positive $0.06 per share earnings variance, including $0.02 per share benefit at the holding company related to net operating loss carrybacks that resulted from the filing of our 2016 tax return and $0.01 from lower operating expenses. Edison Energy Group contributed an additional $0.03 per share to the positive variance. This was also related to net operating loss carrybacks as well as tax benefits related to stock option exercises. Please turn to page 4. I won't go into the detail on the year-to-date results, since the earnings drivers are similar to the quarter. One item of note in the year-to-date results is the $0.08 per share of lower operation and maintenance costs over prior year attributable to our continued operational excellence program. While we had significant tax benefits during 2017, the underlying fundamentals of the business continue to produce strong results. Please turn to page 5. As we wait for a proposed decision on SCE's 2018 General Rate Case, we continue to present our 2018 through 2020 capital forecast at our current request level, which has remained unchanged this quarter. However, for 2017, we adjusted capital expenditures to $3.7 billion to reflect our latest outlook for the year. The reduction was driven by small adjustments across a number of distribution programs and projects. As Pedro mentioned earlier, it is unlikely that SCE will receive a 2018 General Rate Case decision in 2017. It is also uncertain whether SCE will receive firm guidance on grid modernization spending as part of the DRP proceeding during 2017. Therefore, we are currently developing an approach for 2018 capital spending, based on these contingencies, which will allow SCE to ramp up its capital spending program to meet the rate base ultimately authorized in the 2018 General Rate Case decision, while minimizing the associated risk of unauthorized spending. A component of this approach will be to focus initial 2018 grid modernization spending on capital that provides safety and reliability benefits, while deferring most spending that is primarily focused on integration of distributed energy resources. While we wait for the outcomes related to these two proceedings, over the long term, we continue to see SCE investing at least $4 billion per year and adding at least $2 billion per year of rate base for the foreseeable future, as SCE continues to implement its wires-focused business strategy. Please turn to page 6. Our CPUC rate base forecast is based on the weighted average rate base that is authorized in the General Rate Case for the forward-looking three-year period. Once SCE received a final decision in the 2018 General Rate Case, our rate base forecast will be trued up along with our capital expenditures. We have updated our FERC rate base forecast to reflect a change in deferred taxes related to accelerated tax benefits from our 2016 tax return filings. As you can see, the impact is very minimal, with the rate base moving to $26.1 billion from $26.2 billion in 2017 and small impacts thereafter. Please turn to page 7. We increased our 2017 earnings per share guidance to $4.27 to $4.37 per share with a midpoint of $4.32 per share. This reflects both strong operational performance at SCE and the incremental $0.22 per share of tax benefits we have received during the year-to-date period. Our new range includes SCE O&M, financing and other benefits of $0.35 per share, $0.01 higher than previous guidance. In addition, the EIX parent and other earnings drag has decreased from a negative $0.19 per share to negative $0.11 per share. Both of these changes related primarily to additional tax benefits received in the third quarter. In general, we are on track to realize the operational and service excellence targets that we outlined at the beginning of the year with additional improvement attributable to tax benefits. Please turn to page 8, and I will touch on a few key topics. As a part of the cost of capital decision, we filed an Advice Letter with updated costs for of debt and preferred equity for SCE's capital structure. This was approved last week, and starting January 1, 2018, our cost of debt will be reduced to 4.98%, while our cost of preferred equity will increase slightly to 5.82%. Together with the return on common equity reduction to 10.3%, we estimate a pre-tax 2018 revenue requirement reduction of $73 million. On October 27, we filed our annual update to our FERC revenue requirement, and in Addition, we proposed a new FERC Formula recovery mechanism for 2018. The update reflected a transmission revenue requirement of $1.175 billion, a decrease of approximately $13 million, or 1.1% of SCE's 2017 authorized revenue requirement of $1.189 billion. In the new FERC Formula recovery mechanism, we proposed a FERC ROE, not including project-specific adders, of 10.8%. This ROE is composed of a base ROE of 10.3% and an adder of 50 basis points to compensate SCE for its participation in the CAISO. It is reasonable to expect that intervenors will file protests, in which case, FERC will likely accept the new rate subject to refund and provide time for settlement, and formal hearings if a settlement is not reached. We cannot speculate on the outcome of this proceeding or the timeline, but we'll keep you updated as new information is presented. SCE continues to maintain a strong balance sheet and significant financial flexibility. Our weighted average common equity component of total capitalization remained at 50.2% as of September 30. We continue, to maintain what we believe, a prudently conservative balance sheet at both SCE and at the holding company. Finally, our fourth quarter earnings call is tentatively scheduled for February 20. Our normal practice is to provide 2018 earnings guidance, when we report fourth quarter and full year financial results. However, this will be contingent on SCE receiving a final decision on the 2018 General Rate Case. That concludes our remarks. Markie, please open the call for questions.
Operator:
Our first question comes from Ali Agha of SunTrust. Your line is now open.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
Thank you. Good afternoon.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hi, Ali.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Hi, Ali.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
Hi. First question, given the timeline that we do know for the schedule in both SONGS and GRC, just based on that and prior experience on how much time PDs, et cetera take, roughly when at the earliest could we...
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Ali, it looks like we may have lost you. For other folks on the call though, I think where Ali may have been headed was a question on timing of these base decisions. And we can't speculate on when those would be received. I think what we did say was that we don't expect the GRC PD to be issued within 2017. Operator, next question. Operator?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Markie?
Operator:
Our next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith of Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is now open.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Can you hear me?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Yes. Hi, Julien. How are you?
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Excellent. Good. Thank you. Perhaps just a follow-up on some of the commentary you provided. How are you thinking about SONGS with respect to the timeline and specifically around, sort of, the reopening of the multiple phases, because we really nearly got to that in the prior – prior to your initial original settlement here? How are you thinking about the prospects here in terms of going back to each one of the separate phases? Or would it be correct to kind of read this as a going directly to the question of cost allocation?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
I think the way we read the – where the process is, and again, we'll all be reading the various comments from parties filed today. But the ACR that the Assigned Commissioner and the ALJ issued jointly specified a list of topics to be addressed. As I said in my comments, if they determined that the settlement was – they're not continuing to be reasonable. They also commented on a proposed timeline for addressing all those questions, where they envision hearings completing in March of next year. Beyond that bill, I don't think they provided any guidance as to timing. So, we're not able to speculate on how long that would take. And at this point, as I mentioned also, the next step is the November 7 proceeding I think to get parties talking further about their various filings. And from all of that, the PUC will issue a scoping memo determining final topics for consideration, as we go towards the hearings that they have tentatively scheduled for March. So, Julien, I think that's about all we can read from the ACR, and we'll have to stay tuned here.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
And just a quick – a couple of housekeeping items more with respect to your commentary around capital spending contingency plans. By what date next year, broadly, would you need to get that in place in order to execute on the contingency to keep capital spending on track? Is it by midyear or by 1Q really that you think?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Hey, Julien. Hi, this is Maria. We're actually – our plans are being put in place even as we speak. And the plan revolves around ensuring that we have the proper resources and the right – whether it's crews or what have you to really spend at a level, mostly focused particularly on the grid mod space around safety and reliability types of projects, but spend at a level that will allow us to then ramp up over the course of the year in our – I'll say, more traditional programs, the sustained planning that we would do every year. And so, we really don't see any need at any time during the year to have any sort of bright line sort of test. We'll be planning as we always would for that.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
And, Julien, I think it's probably pretty obvious, but the sooner we have clarity, the better for everybody, but I think the team is working hard to continue to build and retain as much optionality as possible as they think about their plans for 2018.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Excellent. Thank you all very much.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thanks, Julien.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from Praful Mehta of Citigroup. Your line is now open.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Thanks so much. Hi, guys.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hey, Praful.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Hi.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Hi. So, I just wanted to clarify on the stock-based compensation and the tax benefits, it looks like the $0.09 incremental benefit. Just wanted to understand what drove that. And secondly, is that all showing up as cash flow or is this more GAAP related or not really cash flow?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
So, as to your first question, the incremental piece of it, that's all related to three areas. We have stock-based compensation incremental since we updated guidance in July, we have some net operating loss carrybacks for periods that had higher tax rates, and so, we got some tax – some benefit there. And then, the third area is sort of around the audit settlement. So there's really three things that are driving that. In terms of cash flow versus earnings, we do get obviously benefit from cash flow. We are not a taxpayer right now, and so we will see that over time.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Got you. So, the cash flow benefit is not incremental, because you're already not a cash taxpayer effectively?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
That's right.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Got you. Okay. And secondly, on the grid mod, I get, the spend is more safety related at least till you have the decision. Could we understand what percentage of the grid mod spend is safety related, and at what point kind of do you run out of steam on the safety and you got to have to spend on, I guess, the other components of the spend?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
So, I think, Praful, in terms of grid mod spend, I think you've probably heard us talk about this before. There's an aspect of it that it relates to true modernization, whether that's a new generation of sensors or communication network so what have you. Another part of it is related to reinforcing the grid and increasing business resiliency and the like, so around, say, our worst circuits, and our Worst Circuit Rehab program, as well as replacing 4 kV circuits with 12 kV or 16 kV circuits. We're still in the planning phases right now, so we have not buttoned down the numbers for next year, obviously. But we have a significant portion of the spend that we can aim at next year that's related to safety and reliability.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Got you. Thanks so much, guys, and I look forward to catching up at EI.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Yeah, we look forward to it. Thanks, Praful.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from Jonathan Arnold of Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Oh, good. Good afternoon, guys.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hi, Jonathan.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Can I just ask if you could give me a – or ask a preview of what you're going to file on the SONGS issue statement today?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Sure. I'll turn it over to Ron Nichols to answer that.
Ronald Owen Nichols - Southern California Edison Co.:
Sure, Jonathan. This is Ron. We'll be planning a statement, pretty perfunctory actually that lays out just the fact that we continue to support the existing settlement. I think it's fair and equitable allocation of cost. There were about nine items, specific items topically that the Assigned Commissioner ruling came out asking for areas that could be addressed and asking for positions on them. Rather than going into a lot of detail on those, we actually referred to many different proceedings in which we've already commented on these. And we'll have a very brief summary table that will describe in summary fashion what our position is on each of those that really referring back to the final – the prior discussions which went into quite a bit of detail in the record.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
So, in summary, you're going to hold your position and not to sort of invite some offer on any of those topics?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Yeah. As Ron said, we reaffirmed our view that the current settlement is reasonable and in customers' interest. And obviously, we've been through the set of confidential meet and confer and mediation sessions. As I mentioned earlier, that those were not successful interchange, I think this is consistent with what we said all along, I think the settlement is reasonable, Jonathan. We certainly approached the meet and confer mediation sessions with an open mind and engaged, I think, in full good faith. I can't comment beyond that because those were confidential. But at this point, I think we're back to more of a litigation approach, and we do stand firmly by our current position.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
And do you believe the process this commission's laid out where everyone just opines on this case, questions the cost allocation. And then the commission will have sufficient record to make a decision at that point? Is that, procedurally, do you see that as correct?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Yeah, let me – this is Pedro Pizarro, let me turn over to Adam Umanoff, our GC.
Adam S. Umanoff - Edison International:
I think simply put, we can't speculate on where this is going to lead. The commission has laid out a process. We're going to fully participate in that process, and we'll see what results. As you know, the timing is still uncertain. Hearings are scheduled tentatively to end by the first quarter of next year, but that's really all we can say about the process for now.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Look, Jonathan, as you can hear from our comments, we're really staying away from speculating on the process, and quietly remain committed to doing our part and I think the commission, the ACR, laid out a process, laid out some initial timing and steps that's constructive, but I think we'll all stay tuned.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. And then – I think that's it. Thank you.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thanks, Jonathan.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from Michael Lapides of Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Hey, guys. A couple of things. First of all, historically, was there much differentiation between during your annual PO filings, the authorized ROE get at the FERC level for FERC transmission assets versus what California had granted you?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
So, Michael, the FERC has actually acknowledged that distribution investments carry with them a higher level of risk than transmission investment. So, in our filing that we made on Friday, we did reiterate that position that they have already expressed. I think, from what's in the record perspective, the FERC has said that they don't have to be guided by that, by whatever the state-level ROE is, but in fact that they do view distribution or have viewed distribution as a more risky investment than transmission. In our filing, we actually did have a base ROE that was equivalent to the 10.3% that we have here in California, but then we added to that the 50 basis point adder for CAISO, and then depending on what level of spend is in there for different projects that have incentives, you'll see something over that.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Got it. And I just want to make sure and I'm looking at the CapEx slides you put out today, and the repeat of stuff you had our earlier. The CapEx does not include much for the transportation, electrification, and how much of the storage is actually in there?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
So, in terms of the transportation electrification, storage, et cetera, the only thing we really have in here is the pilot for Charge Ready, which is about $12 million or so. There is Phase II of Charge Ready, which is the light-duty vehicle charging infrastructure CapEx, that's not in here yet. We have to file a report by next May on the pilot program. And then, in 2018, we'll file the application for the balance of that program. The transportation electrification investment that we filed in the application in January, so, the medium and heavy duty charging infrastructure, as well as in those small or priority projects, none of that is in here. And the storage that we have in here is really related to – we have some storage in our GRC, so that's in the request. And so you'll see that in here, it's buried in there. And then the Aliso Canyon – the 40 megawatts of Aliso Canyon storage is in our numbers now. It's not – and it's flowing through rate base. It doesn't make a material difference, because it's relatively modest number so.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Got it. And last things, which significant transmission projects still require major permits before they can go ahead with construction?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
So, we have a number of projects that, as you know, we've disclosed in the 10-Q, West of Devers, Mesa, Alberhill, Riverside and Eldorado-Lugo-Mohave Upgrade. They're in various stages. West of Devers, as you know, we had some of the issues with the CPUC getting our Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity, that's all behind us. We've certainly still have some local permits that we need to obtain, but it's more of that nature. The Mesa Substation also we had some, I'd say, pushback on the CPUC end, but we've now obtained that. We're out for competitive bids on that. It's going to be done in two phases. So, one of them still yet to be done. The Alberhill System is still going through a CPUC decision process. The final environmental impact report was issued, and it did reject various alternatives, but we're still going through that approval process, expecting that, obtain that in 2018. The Riverside Transmission Reliability Project, which is the fourth of the five disclosed projects, is really a joint project, and that is still going through its own process. We've agreed with some revisions that have been recommended for the project, but the CPUC is continuing to collect information on it. And then, finally, the Eldorado-Lugo-Mohave Upgrade Project, we proposed an expedited schedule for that and the regulatory permitting agencies are still considering that. So, I would say we are in varying stages of approvals. Certainly West of Devers and Mesa, we've gotten through our CPUC process with those.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
And quite frankly, Michael, that's why we wanted to provide this increased level of disclosure over the last several cycles here, just because there are some big items in terms of – certainly those five projects. So we thought that it'd be good for investors to have a little bit more click-down visibility on that.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Got it. Thank you, guys. Much appreciated.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
You bet.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from Travis Miller of Morningstar. Your line is now open.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Good afternoon. Thank you.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hi, Travis.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
I was wondering if there was anything within the EIX vision, all the different programs and thoughts (39:44) transportation electrification, and storage, where if you did not get CPUC approval through rate base, through the DRC that you could perhaps do those projects, invest that capital through, say, Edison Energy or some other unregulated, less regulated entity?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thanks for the question. I think when we talk about the California piece of the story and certainly the elements within Southern California, and we look at those elements like electric transportation or, as you will see in our white paper tomorrow, the emphasis on building electrification, water heaters, the use of – regular use of clean energy resources. At the core, I think most of that activity keeps coming back to the essential role for the grid being at the center of helping all that happen for the state of California. But I think the focus, certainly, as we've been talking about some of these key elements with you all, the focus keeps going back to all of that being supportive of the long-term capital investment story at SCE, and being able to support the program at the $4-plus-billion a year level over – likely multiple rate case cycles. There's always a possibility that any given other piece of work could be done outside the utility. I think again most of the – what we see that most of the impact of the company, it's less about, for example, you look at the charging infrastructure programs, we, to-date, have not really gotten into the actual ownership of the charter, right? Our focus has been on ensuring that the grid is sufficiently robust and modern to be able to accommodate the chargers that are going to be coming online. And then we provided support for customers doing that by, in the Charge Ready program, rate basing some of the customer side infrastructure up to, but not including the charger itself. So, again, I think that the bulk of the capital story for us around these programs is the support for grid investment at SCE. Now, as we look outside of SCE and frankly outside of California, technology is opening up efficient electrification opportunities across a number of sectors. I do think that's a place where there's Edison Energy is advising large commercial-industrial customers that – I think folks understand what we're doing there, based on our August Edison Insights discussion, but I think that's a focus outside of the California story per se.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Okay. Great. I appreciate the color.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
That makes sense?
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Yeah.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question, we have Ali Agha back in queue of SunTrust, your line is now open.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Ali, you had us worried there. And you're back.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
I am back, Pedro. Thank you for letting me come back. I just wanted to clarify a point you'd made, when you talked about the SONGS proceedings going forward, most likely now, will be litigated and will come to a decision, does that mean that a potential for – or a re-potential for settlement, that is essentially now no longer a viable option, now it is litigation, that's the way we should be thinking about this?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Ali, I think that would require us to speculate on whatever twists and turns continue to happen as we go towards a final decision. I would just make a general blanket statement frankly about any regulatory proceeding that's litigated that has at least two sides to the equation. We are always, as a matter of fact, open to hearing ideas that folks may have around different potential solutions short of a litigated outcome. With SONGS in particular, we went through the meet-and-confer process, we went through the mediation, we were unable to get there. We can't comment on what happened inside the room, as I said before, because of the confidentiality issues. And so, that's not what we're focused right now. We're focused on our filing today and the conference coming up November 7 and the next steps after that. Like with anything in life, you never say never, if folks have different ideas as we walk down the pathway here. But we're surely very focused now on how we do high-quality filings in the rest of the process that the PUC is prescribing.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
I see. Understood. And, Maria, just one clarification from you. The tax benefit that you've been recording and getting over the course of this year. At the end, is it better to continue as we look forward, or do you think all the audits, et cetera, are done, or this could still be a swing factor going forward as well?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
We haven't given guidance for our future years, Ali, but we've said before in terms of the different buckets of tax benefits, share-based compensation, people make their own decisions about when they're going to exercise their options, and so we can't really anticipate when and then if there'll be some benefits associated with that. In terms of the audits and the return to provision kinds of elements, we do every year have to true up our tax returns and, sometimes, it's up and sometimes it's down, but it varies. If you look at prior years, we've had some things that have gone in the opposite direction. And then as far as audit settlements, we disclose what's still open in terms of audits. At the federal level, we're up through 12. We've completed all our audits. At the state, we still have a number of years that are open either in being audited or some subject still to examination that's because the state lags until the federal stuff has been resolved. We will continue provide disclosure around that as we get closer to when those things are completed.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
Understood. Thank you.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Shahriar Pourreza of Guggenheim Partners. Your line is now open.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Hey, everyone.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hi, Shar.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
So, most of my questions were answered, and I apologize I hopped in a little bit late here. But a lot of the timing of, sort of, the procedural items you discussed today is kind of unknown, but you're hoping to get closure with most of it by sometime in early 2018. You do have somewhat of a resource-constrained CPUC. Is there sort of any indirect impact to your procedural plans with sort of the Sonoma fires likely maybe inundating a lot of their time and resources? So, net-net, I guess, I'm asking, had the fires – I mean, could the fires push out any of your plans somewhat?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Let me take it, Shar. And couple things on that; one, obviously, I think that the PUC and PG&E and a lot of state entities are all still grappling with the aftermath of the fires. So, that is a new piece of work, if you will, that hadn't been foreseen a month ago. And so, that certainly will require some work by some of the staff at the PUC. That said, I think the PUC always does a nice job at segmenting work across a various staff areas. So, I wouldn't expect that necessarily this would mean that all 700 staffers at the PUC are now turning their attention on this one topic. So, maybe long way of saying don't know, but I would speculate that while, let's say, wild fires may create a new amount of workload for the PUC, it doesn't necessarily mean that everything else stops or gets delayed. The other thing I'd clarify though is, just to make sure that we're telegraphing precisely what we mean to all of you. As we pointed to two key proceedings here, the GRC and the SONGS proceeding, – in your question, you mentioned – it sounded like you had carried away in expectation that we'd be seeing decisions early in 2018. So I want to clarify, we did not say that. We did say that, in the GRC, we think it's very unlikely that we would see a PD coming out within 2017. So, that implies that we'd see a PD some time in 2018. Once that PD is issued – first of all, PDs can take a while to be issued. And secondly, once a PD is issued, then there's the process, until it actually gets adopted, is a final decision. So, that's why we're not speculating at what point in 2018 or even in what year, we'd get a rate case decision. We would hope it would be in 2018, but we can't say with certainty. In the SONGS case, likewise, we pointed to an early 2018 date as the date in the SONGS ACR, the March date, March 2018 date by which the PUC expects to have completed hearings. But again, after that, then you have the process of ultimately preparing a PD, and then, I mean, that become a final decision voted on by the PUC, and we're not speculating on what dates that might entail. But just with both of those, I would think it's probably further unlikely – certainly unlikely, we would have a SONGS decision in early 2018, since hearings wouldn't be completed until March. With the GRC, given that PDs usually take similar amount of time to get completed and we still have public participation hearings coming up here soon, I'd think it's probably also unlikely we'd have a final decision in the rate case in early 2018.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Understood. Thanks so much for the clarification. Thanks, guys.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Yeah. You bet.
Operator:
Thank you. Speakers, that was the last question. I will turn the call back to Mr. Sam Ramraj.
Sam Ramraj - Edison International:
Thank you very much for joining us today, and please call us, if you have any follow-up questions. That concludes the call. Thank you.
Executives:
Sam Ramraj - Edison International Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International Kevin M. Payne - Southern California Edison Co. Ronald Owen Nichols - Southern California Edison Co.
Analysts:
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc. Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Gregg Orrill - Barclays Capital, Inc. Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research) Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC
Operator:
Good afternoon and welcome to the Edison International Second Quarter 2017 Financial Teleconference. My name is Natalie, and I will be your operator today. Today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Sam Ramraj, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Ramraj, you may begin your conference.
Sam Ramraj - Edison International:
Thank you and welcome, everyone. Our speakers today are President and Chief Executive Officer, Pedro Pizarro; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Maria Rigatti. Also here are other members of the management team. Materials supporting today's call are available at www.edisoninvestor.com. These include our Form 10-Q, prepared remarks from Pedro and Maria, and the teleconference presentation. Tomorrow, we will distribute our regular business update presentation. During the call, we will make forward-looking statements about the outlook for Edison International and its subsidiaries. Actual results could differ materially from current expectations. Important factors that could cause different results are set forth in our SEC filings. Please read these carefully. The presentation includes certain outlook assumptions, as well as a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure. During the question-and-answer session, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. I will now turn the call over to Pedro.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thank you, Sam, and good afternoon, everyone. Before we start the review of the quarter, I would like to welcome Sam again as our new Vice President of Investor Relations. Sam joined our team in June, and some of you have already had the chance to speak with him on the phone during this past month. Sam has significant Investor Relations experience, with 15 years on the corporate side and prior experience as a sell-side analyst. And I will admit, I have also enjoyed kidding Sam a bit about how his move from the oil industry to the electric sector is very well-aligned with California's transportation electrification policy objectives. So Sam, welcome again. Now on to the quarter. Edison International reported second quarter earnings of $0.85 per share, which were slightly below last year's second quarter earnings of $0.86 per share. Typically, we make decisions about adjustments to guidance after we have third quarter results, but we are making an exception in this instance. We have previously indicated that there is a bias towards the upper half of the range. We have now adjusted guidance to a midpoint of $4.23 per share, primarily to incorporate the tax benefits related to share-based compensation which we discussed earlier this year, and Maria will cover this in more detail in her remarks. My comments today will focus on SCE's key regulatory proceedings and long-term growth opportunities. I will also provide an update on our recently announced restructuring at Edison Energy. Let me start with the SCE 2018 General Rate Case. As requested by the administrative law judges, SCE entered into initial settlement discussions on the rate case in the May to June timeframe. As is always the case, there are a number of interveners involved. While we remain open to a settlement, at this time we are continuing with the litigation process and participating in evidentiary hearings which started July 13 and are scheduled through early August. Now just before our last earnings call, the Office of Ratepayer Advocates or ORA, have submitted their testimony. Then in early May, all other interveners, including The Utility Reform Network or TURN, submitted their testimony. Each of ORA and TURN addressed a range of issues in the General Rate Case, and you will recall that ORA's recommendation yielded 6.6% annual rate base growth through 2020. Now this was based on acceptance of about 90% of our traditional capital spending recommendations and zero capital spending for grid modernization. In comparison, TURN's overall capital spending recommendations would yield annual rate base growth of 6.0% through 2020. This includes TURN's support for about 85% of our traditional capital spending and approximately 22% of our grid modernization capital spending recommendations. Embedded in TURN's testimony are proposed rate base adjustments of approximately $700 million of historical capital expenditures related to certain distribution infrastructure replacement programs. On June 16, SCE filed its rebuttal testimony which reiterated key points of our original applications, including a continued focus on infrastructure reliability investment and the first elements of the long-term grid modernization initiative. We did lower our capital request by approximately $420 million, of which $300 million was related to grid modernization programs, and the remainder related to operational support in other small programs. Over the course of the past 18 to 24 months since the initial testimony was prepared, SCE refined its analysis based on additional engineering studies, pilot projects and more detailed financial evaluations and therefore, modified the timing and approaches to upgrading certain elements of the distribution system. We continue to believe that these programs will benefit customers, and SCE expects to include these and other capital expenditures in future GRCs. Overall, these changes have modified our rate base growth to 8.3% from the original recourse 8.6%. Again, Maria will go into more detail related to our capital spending forecast. Now we continue to believe that California's 2030 greenhouse gas emission goals will require proactive steps to integrate renewable energy and distributed energy resources into the grid. Because it will take many years to modernize the grid to meet these requirements, we must start now by identifying early, no-regrets investments that will improve reliability and safety for customers. And it will also keep us on the path of being a key enabler of California's climate change policies. In addition to our General Rate Case, SCE is pursuing additional programs around transportation electrification and energy storage in support of California's 2030 greenhouse gas emission goals, totaling $1 billion of additional capital spending opportunities outside of our current forecast. With respect to the transportation and electrification application filed in January, SCE is still expecting a decision on $20 million of priority review projects by this October, and then looking to April 2018 for a final decision on the requested $550 million project related to charging infrastructure for medium and heavy-duty vehicles. Also, as a reminder, the IOUs received a final commission decision in April, implementing Assembly Bill 2868 which requires the IOUs to propose programs and investments for up to 500 megawatts of distributed energy storage systems. This amount is above and beyond the existing 1,325 megawatt target. SCE's portion is approximately 166 megawatts. Now not all of this increment will create rate base earning opportunities, but more detail will come as SCE evaluates different approaches and submits its proposal. Next, let me discuss the cost of capital proceeding. We are pleased that the CPUC recently approved the original cost of capital settlement submitted by the four investor-owned energy utilities, ORA and TURN. The implementation of California's energy policies requires a significant commitment by SCE and others in the state to drive power procurement, capital spending and energy efficiency. We continue to play an important role in long-term contracting for renewables and, increasingly, energy storage to meet our customers and our state's needs. Safety and reliability are always at the forefront of our capital spending plans and we must now implement those plans in the context of also building a modern grid to integrate distributed energy resources that our customers are choosing and that our regulators are supporting. Achieving California's climate change policies means we must attract the capital needed for infrastructure reliability and enabling a low-carbon grid. All of these activities require SCE and the other utilities to forge new and truly innovative approaches that support a premium return on equity relative to utilities in other states. Our new cost of capital will go into effect on January 1, 2018, and we will go back to the commission in April of 2019 with our next cost of capital application where we will continue the discussion on these key topics. Going further on the broader theme of California's climate change polices, many of you have heard me talk about SCE being a key enabler of California's goals. In early June, we joined the State of California and other states, cities and companies when we signed an open letter to the international community supporting the Paris Accord on climate change, which underscores our continued work on greenhouse gas reduction efforts. This also reflects California's national and international leadership in addressing greenhouse gas emissions through ambitious clean energy and environmental programs. California took its next major step on Tuesday when Governor Brown signed Assembly Bill 398 to extend the greenhouse gas cap-and-trade program. SCE supported AB 398, and I attended the signing ceremony which took place in the same location where Governor Schwarzenegger signed the original AB 32 cap-and-trade legislation 10 years ago. AB 398, which passed the legislature with a two-thirds super majority vote, keeps the cap-and-trade program largely intact and extends it to 2030 but with some modifications to the program's administration. The legislature is continuing the theme with the proposed Senate Bill 100 which would accelerate the renewables' control use standard to 50% by 2026, establish a target of 60% renewable resources by 2030 and require all electricity sold at retail to be from zero carbon resources by 2045. We support the broad objective of the legislation, but SCE is currently working with the bill's sponsors to seek changes that will ensure that reliability and customer rate impacts are appropriately considered. Additionally, we would like the bill to include language to provide flexibility to study and revisit its targets if necessary in the future. Moving on to the status of the SONGS regulatory proceeding. Since our last earnings call, the commission approved our request to extend the deadline to report on the status of the meet-and-confer process to August 15. In addition, SCE filed a redacted version of the MHI arbitration decision on June 7 for awareness by the commission and the public. We are taking the meet-and-confer process seriously. However, we are also prepared to return to litigation if the meet-and-confer process is ultimately not successful and the CPUC takes that step. Now the meet-and-confer process is confidential so we are, therefore, just not in a position to provide any further details during today's question-and-answer session. Let's now turn to our competitive businesses at Edison Energy Group where there have been some developments that I would like to discuss. As part of our ongoing strategic review of our competitive businesses, we streamlined the organizational structure of Edison Energy Group to focus on near-term needs rather than the longer-term potential scale. In addition to this organizational realignment, we are also evaluating various options for SoCore, our solar business. This could result in a sale of the business as there may be other parties who are better able to maximize the value of the SoCore platform, given its scale and our current tax position. We have retained an advisor to assist in the effort and will provide more detail as we move forward. I want to make it clear that we remain committed to establishing successful competitive businesses that complement our regulated business at SCE. We have heard from our commercial and industrial customers that they value the independent insight we bring regarding their energy needs. Therefore, we will continue our commitment to growing our existing Edison Energy service lines and to establishing a new portfolio advisory service line along with the supporting data analytics platform for large energy users nationally. While we have not yet selected a specific date, we plan to come back to investors in September on an Edison Insights call with more details about our plans for the competitive businesses coming out of our strategic review of Edison Energy Group. Now I want to close by thanking Ron Litzinger who has announced that he will retire by year end. Ron has been the first leader of Edison Energy Group and has been an important part of SCE and Edison Mission Energy at key times in their history. I really appreciate that Ron will be able to work with us in the months ahead to assure a smooth transition as we recruit a new head of Edison Energy who will report to Drew Murphy. We will have more opportunities to fully celebrate Ron's great career as we approach the end of the year. I will now turn the call over to Maria for an update on the quarter.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Thank you, Pedro. And good afternoon, everyone. Before we discuss results, I'd also like to welcome Sam. We're all looking forward to working with him. Turning to other topics, my comments today will cover second quarter and year-to-date results, updated earnings guidance and our updated capital expenditure and rate base forecast. Let's begin by looking at the key SCE earnings drivers for the quarter shown on the right of the slide. So please turn to page two of the presentation. Overall, SCE revenue was not an earnings driver this quarter. Higher revenue from the normal attrition mechanism and SCE's current General Rate Case generated a positive $0.11 per share variance compared to last year's second quarter. But other CPUC and FERC revenue offset this amount. As part of our rebuttal testimony filed in the General Rate Case on June 16, we included an update to account for a prior assignment of certain compensation costs to customers instead of shareholders. SCE expects to refund $17 million or $0.03 per share to customers. This refund reduced other CPUC revenue in the second quarter. FERC revenue was lower due to $0.04 per share of items that were offset by lower operating costs and thus had no earnings impact. This was largely related to amortization in 2016 with the Coolwater-Lugo transmission project which was offset by higher depreciation. SCE continues to see lower operations and maintenance expenses quarter-over-quarter due to the ongoing implementation of various operational and service excellence initiatives. These initiatives contributed $0.03 per share to earnings in the quarter. Higher depreciation is to be expected due to SCE's major capital spending program but was partially offset by the Coolwater-Lugo project recovery in 2016 mentioned previously. Net financing costs were also higher by $0.01 per share mainly due to increased borrowings to finance our capital program. Higher income tax versus last year contributed a negative $0.05 per share which is mainly attributable to the 2016 timing of recognition for the recovery of flow-through taxes. In total, this results in an overall SCE earnings decrease of $0.04 per share. For the quarter, EIX parent and other had a positive $0.03 per share earnings variance, mainly driven by a $0.02 per share benefit at the holding company from an IRS settlement of prior-year periods. Edison Energy Group contributed $0.01 per share to the positive variance, mainly due to the absence of a $0.04 per share charge related to the 2016 buyout of an earn-out provision, offset by a $0.03 per share goodwill impairment on SoCore Energy related to the decision to evaluate strategic options for the business including a sale, which Pedro already discussed. As a reminder, as a result of our 2016 adoption of the new FASB accounting rules on share based payments, comparisons with the second quarter of 2016 are on an adjusted basis. Previously, we had reported $0.85 per share of core earnings in the second quarter of 2016. This is now $0.86 per share as adjusted. The adjusted quarterly earnings schedule is again included in the presentation appendix. Please turn to page three. I won't go into detail on the year-to-date results since many of the quarterly earnings drivers are also relevant in the year-to-date period. One element that was not a driver in the second quarter but has contributed to earnings variances in the year-to-date period is the tax benefits related to share-based compensation that we realized largely in the first quarter. Please turn to page four. As Pedro mentioned earlier, we are updating guidance to incorporate the tax benefits related to share-based compensation that we recorded in the first half of 2017 and the $0.03 per share SoCore impairment recorded in the second quarter. Our new range is $4.13 to $4.33 per share with a midpoint of $4.23 per share. We continue to experience success around our operational and service excellence initiatives and cost control and effectiveness more generally. However, we have not made any adjustments to guidance at this point related to these items, as we continue to evaluate the various efforts and other work that may be required. We will update guidance in the third quarter as it has been our practice to reflect any additional changes following the summer season. Please turn to page five. In June, after we submitted our rebuttal testimony, we provided an updated capital spending forecast in our business update. A reduction of $420 million reflected the General Rate Case capital adjustments between 2018 and 2020. As Pedro noted, $300 million was related to grid modernization and the remainder to operations support and other small programs. Today we are providing an additional update for our 2017 capital expenditure forecast, which reflects trends that we've seen in the first six months for both CPUC and FERC capital spending. As we noted during the first quarter earnings call, SCE capital expenditures for 2017 have been trending lower than the $4.2 billion in our original forecast. We currently see 2017 capital expenditures to be $3.8 billion, generally reflecting the lack of approval of a grid modernization memorandum account, lower than expected new customer meters, and delays in transmission spending. As we continue to refine our grid modernization spending estimates and review the work embedded in the plan, we have identified and focused on projects that have significant reliability benefits in addition to supporting our ability to integrate distributed energy resources. We have therefore included these projects in our traditional distribution capital spending. There are no significant changes to the 2018 through 2020 GRC period subsequent to our rebuttal testimony. Please turn to page six. I won't spend a lot of time on page six as there were no changes from our prior June forecast. The main driver of our forecast is the General Rate Case rebuttal testimony. Our rate base forecast is based on the authorized weighted average rate base that is set in each General Rate Case for the forward-looking three-year period. Once SCE receives a final decision in the 2018 General Rate Case, our rate base forecast will be trued up along with our capital expenditures. From a FERC perspective, our rate base also remained largely the same as the majority of the capital spending decrease is tied to projects that are expected to close outside of the forecast period. Despite these short-term discrepancies, over the long term, we continue to see SCE investing at $4 billion per year and adding at least $2 billion per year of rate base for the foreseeable future as SCE continues to implement its wires focused business strategy. Please turn to page seven. As Pedro discussed in his comments, we received a final decision on the cost of capital proceeding for 2018 and 2019. SCE's return on equity will be adjusted to 10.3% from 10.45% and we will true up the cost of debt and preferred equity. We expect to file an advice letter in September with our forecasted cost of debt and preferred equity for 2018 and 2019. This true up will include our actual cost of debt and preferred equity as of August, as well as a forecast of debt and preferred equity costs to the end of 2018. The cost of capital adjustment mechanism or trigger mechanism will be effective for 2019. That is the cost of capital will remain fixed in 2018 with a possibility of the adjustment mechanism functioning in 2019. We will implement the new cost of capital starting on January 1, 2018. SCE continues to maintain a strong balance sheet and significant financial flexibility. Our weighted average common equity component of total capitalization is 50.2% as of June 30. We continue to maintain what we believe is a prudently conservative balance sheet at both SCE and at the holding company. That concludes my remarks. Natalie, please open the call for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. Our first question comes from Ali Agha of SunTrust. Your line is now open.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
Thank you. Good afternoon.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hi, Ali.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Hi.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
How are you? My first question, with regards to the new 2017 guidance, if we take the midpoint of the guidance, the new midpoint, that's implying that second half 2017 earnings will be essentially flat in second half 2016. Could you explain why that directly would be the case?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Ali, this is Maria. Hi. So we provided the guidance – we wanted to update guidance to incorporate the discrete items around the share-based compensation tax benefits as well as the SoCore impairment. We've included a new guidance from the get-go earlier in the year, the $0.31 of operational benefits and financing benefits. As we continued through the year, we're going to keep an eye on all of those things. And as we get through the summer period, we will revisit that and see if we need to make any adjustments. But for now, I think that's where we are on guidance.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
Okay. Well, Maria, there's nothing that would be driving flat comparisons, right, just fundamentally speaking?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
We are, you know, doing the work that we've been doing every year. I think that we are looking at continuing to find ways to keep the O&M costs, et cetera, in line. And I think as we get through this period, we're going to take another look at guidance and we'll be back to you with that.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
Okay. And my second question, with regards to the GRC and the rate base outlook, are you expecting – first of all, I wanted to just clarify that, I mean from Pedro's remarks, that given where we are and the hearings going on, the settlement probably is not a high probability item. But then as you're going through this process, is there a possibility of further refinement to the CapEx and the rate base numbers before we reach the finish line from your perspective?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Ali, let me take the first part of that and then turn to Maria and Ron Nichols for a second. On the possibility of settlement, we're not really handicapping the possibility. We acknowledge that there's been discussions. We don't have a comprehensive settlement at this point and we're focused on the hearings. We'll always remain open-minded but not really providing any sort of handicapping or probability of assessment.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Yeah. I think where we are right now, Ali, is in the middle of – or we're probably closer to the end of evidentiary hearings. We did file our rebuttal testimony which had some updates in it. At this point, we would be anticipating that we would make updates when we would get a proposed decision or final decision.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
I see. Thank you.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thanks, Ali.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Praful Mehta of Citigroup. Your line is now open.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Thanks so much. I wanted to just touch on Edison Energy and the sale of the solar business. If you could just give some context around – you said you've already hired, I guess, bankers to run the process. Where we are in that process in terms of timing, and just size and scale of the business? And also user proceeds, is it just capital that will help fund the utility growth, or are you looking at something else?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Let me kick it off and then Maria can fill in some of the details here. And hi, Praful. Nice to hear you. So as I said in my remarks, we have engaged an advisor this early in the process here, and the point is to explore all options. And I think as I mentioned in my comments, we really want to make sure we have an open mind. We think it's an interesting business, and frankly, solar will be a big part of the electric energy economy in the decades ahead. But given where we are at this point in time and particularly where we are in tax appetite, et cetera, we just wanted to explore whether there are other options, including the potential for a sale. Maybe Maria can fill us in, in terms of the scale?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Sure. And Praful, so you know the scale of businesses currently is not material relative to the rest of the company in terms of use of proceeds. We would see what happens at the time we completed a transaction if we do. But I would say, you can think about it more like general corporate purposes as opposed to anything else.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Gotcha. Fair enough. That gives the context, which is helpful. And then broadly, we are all looking forward to the broader Edison Energy discussion as well in September. But just to understand from that context, everything is on the table in terms of like more strategic decisions around do we want to stay in this business? Or is it more what are the milestones that we want to achieve in terms of how we wanted to kind of grow or build this business going forward?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Yeah, I'd say it's more the latter. I think that we are, and as I – I think I mentioned in my comments, we think this is an interesting business and one that we want to prove out. I'm honestly a little worried that by the time we get to the September meeting, some of this might be anticlimactic because maybe (27:38) rocket science. But we're hoping to give you some just interesting way points in terms of more of the proof points that we see for the business and the time scale for getting it to earnings neutral, which is sooner rather than later, but we want to give you some more context around it and also some more views, some – what the long range potential scale can be for the business. And so we want to make sure we set expectations right here. We're excited about it. We've got a lot of work to do. And we have a business to prove out and so the discussion will focus in filling in some of the blanks that we haven't been able to fill in to-date, and provide some of the metrics and milestones we'll be using, so – because we had an interesting discussion, but I also don't want folks to think there's a big cliff hanger or something like that. So it's not quite (28:31) here yet.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Gotcha. Fair enough. And just finally quickly on this grid modernization topic, it looks like at least from the current process, given its initial phases of the full grid modernization CapEx spend, it's more challenging and more difficult to get a bunch of that approved, or at least in terms of the support that you need from the customer advocates. Is that something you see as more of an education process almost in terms of how this kind of goes over time, and over time as people understand what grid model is and why it's needed, you get more support going forward?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
I think it's important to start by saying – and again, Maria or Kevin Payne around it because I don't want to say more here, but I want to start by saying that, at least my interpretation of the discussion right now, I don't think that anybody is doubting that this state is committed to having a very different energy system and going towards 2030, cleaning the energy resources and cleaning a lot of the economy and using electrification to do that and having a lot more use of distributed resources as part of the supply stack and as part of customer uses. The question some of the interveners are raising is one more of pace. And we believe that our proposal has responded to the data point the commission has put out to-date on the sense of urgency around this. And mind you, again, given that we view grid modernization as being essential towards driving the dramatic changes that will be needed across the California economy to get that 40% greenhouse gas reduction by 2030 12.5 years from now, we believe that the pace that we proposed in the GRC is merited. But again, I think that the debate mainly is more about when, not if, and I think we're all waiting to see how the commission comes out in terms of their guidance. We had hoped we would've had guidance through the DRP (30:28) proceeding by this point that I think has not happened yet, and we might expect a decision more like in the third quarter. We certainly will look for guidance in terms of how the commission handles our proposals in the rate case, but it's not about that. Ron, you'd like to add, or Kevin?
Kevin M. Payne - Southern California Edison Co.:
I would just add that there has been a bit of an education process, and we'll see how that plays out in the process, but it's making sure that the parties are aware that grid modernization also has very significant reliability and safety benefits in addition to what it does for distributed resources.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Absolutely.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Great. Thanks so much, guys.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Hey, guys. I have a simple one, and you guys might laugh at me when I ask this one, but if I look at slide five, your capital spending forecast, the 2017 amount is down about $300 million, $400 million. But when I then look at the next slide, the rate base slide, nothing actually changes. Can you walk me through that again, am I missing something here? Is it because this is the first couple hundred million dollars of a five- or seven-year project and therefore, it wouldn't have actually booked a rate base until after 2020, or is there some other moving part that I'm just not following here?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
So there's two pieces to the answer, Michael. This is Maria. The first piece is just what you said, the FERC spend doesn't actually close until after the forecast period, so you wouldn't see it in rate base until after that. So that's one piece of it. The other piece of it around the CPUC spend is that this is – 2017 is authorized, 2018 through 2020 is part of our rate case. As we get a final decision in the rate case, we will be rolling through any changes to capital and to – et cetera.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. Okay. But the FERC spending in 2017, you still would've earned AFUDC on that $300 million to $400 million, you just simply won't – you won't get that noncash earnings power over the next couple of years until you actually ramp that project up?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
So correct, the whole $400 million is not FERC, by the way, but yes, we'll get AFUDC but that's the noncash aspect of it. Yes.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. Okay. And then second question, when you get out to – let's say your 2018 through 2020 CapEx at almost $5 billion a year happens at that level and not at a lower level like interveners suggest. Will SCE need cash from the parent? Meaning, will the parent need to inject more cash than it has been historically into SCE to fund SCE's rate base growth?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
I think from a planning perspective, it's a little early days to identify that sort of need. SCE has a fair amount of flexibility built in at the operating company level, so it has that extra layer of equity. But it also importantly has a very robust – or ability to have a very robust short-term debt program, so (33:44) program, which it can utilize to fill in the blanks as well. So we'll have to really see what the cash needs are at the utility, and since they have so much flexibility I think it'd be premature to estimate that.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. Thanks.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
And maybe one thing to add, I know you've heard us emphasize before, as Maria said, there's a number of tools that we could use to address that as we get out there, and as we see what actually gets approved in the rate case. But even in the bookend case, well, we got everything that we asked for, we still don't foresee any need to issue equity at EIX level to support the SCE capital program. So that – I think you've heard us say that before, but it's an important part of the message. And by the way, Michael, nobody's laughing at you inside the room. This stuff is complicated.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. Thanks, guys. Much appreciated.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
You bet.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Shahriar Pourreza of Guggenheim Partners. Your line is now open.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Hey, guys. Sorry if this was – obviously, this has been addressed a lot, but on sort of the modernization in spend, it's such a big piece of the growth and sort of this rate case here. I know it's a factor of timing, but is it a factor of – are you dealing with interveners that want to layer it in on the next rate case, or are they thinking more sort of back-end loaded? And I'm kind of curious, the revision you've done on sort of the capital side of this, did that impact some of the settlement discussions and why you're – we don't see something before you file – I mean, before the hearings start, I guess?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
I'll kick it off by saying that it's probably hard to speculate where any one intervener is coming from, and I think we're focused on what happens in this case. The other thing I'd throw in here is that as we move forward into future rate cases, I'm not even sure we would have a separate grid modernization request. Grid modernization – but the grid will be becoming more modern, and so the kind of design principles we've embedded in this particular request, I think at some point, whether it's a next rate case or maybe the one after that, will get more and more baked into our overall request. Because that'll – we will be doing all the grid modern as opposed to having a separate grid mod request. In terms of what drove the change in our update, and I'll turn it over to Kevin Payne here in a minute to give you a little bit more color, but it really was about the fact that with the benefit of an extra year and a half, couple years, and the fact that this stuff is all, frankly, fairly new in terms of design and we have some pilots, et cetera, we knew a lot more than we wanted to bake into the updates. So it was something we did on its own standalone basis as opposed to connected any sort of discussions. So, Kevin, more detail (36:35).
Kevin M. Payne - Southern California Edison Co.:
Yes, sure. That's right. I mean, we -- I think there are two elements to this that we talked about before. There is a lot of education going on to get the interveners and the Commission itself to understand what it is that needs to be done, and then secondarily, in what timeframe? And as we've looked at our proposal more deeply and done more analysis over the last year and a half, as Pedro said, we've identified a few areas where we thought we could actually push some of the modifications out. One that comes to mind is our sub-transmission relay replacements. So we know that that will need to be done eventually, and we know what it is that will drive it, and largely, the penetration of distributed energy resources and other things. But we have identified a different timeframe that we could do it in. So I think it's really about educating people about exactly what it is that needs to be done because some of the design features that we're proposing are new. But as Pedro said, in the next case, they will be our new design and we'll be continuing to implement that across the system.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Could the modernization spend – and that's helpful. Can the modernization spend kind of be carved out and something to be accounted for in a separate proceeding in between the rate case?
Ronald Owen Nichols - Southern California Edison Co.:
The guidance we have from the commission is that that is not the way they've designed it. Even in the distribution resources proceeding where the concepts about what would need to happen to modernize the grid were introduced. It was explicit that the money would not be authorized in that proceeding, but that proposals would be made in a General Rate Case.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Okay. Got it. That's very helpful. Thanks.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jonathan Arnold of Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Hi. Good afternoon, guys.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hey, Jonathan.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Hi. Just a couple of questions on the EEG. When I look at it in the Q, it looks like it lost $17 million in the second quarter, which is that same as second quarter last year, and compared to $5 million or $6 million in the first quarter of both years. Is that a seasonality or is it a different feel, given how you were evolving the business so far in Q2 this year?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
So some of the things that are going on in Q2 this year actually relate to the SoCore impairment. So you'll see that we took a $10 million after-tax charge, about $17 million pre tax. And so that's embedded in the Q2 results for EEG, which is probably throwing you off in terms of making the quarter-over-quarter comparison. So far, year-to-date, I think you will see EEG as performing – absent the $0.03 impairment, EEG is performing consistently with the guidance that we provided.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
So does that mean that absent the impairment, you might have broken even this quarter?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
No, I don't think we would've done that. Because the guidance for the year is an $0.08 loss.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Right. Okay. And then just separately, the Q also says that you're not accounting for SoCore as an asset held for sale because you're not sure you'll necessarily sell it within the next 12 months. Can you – I want to just be clear, are you – what is the scenario where you don't sell it? How will that business look as far as this portfolio and what is the message?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
So I think that when it comes down to that comment about whether or not the asset is held for sale, you know that it's a relatively straightforward assessment of whether or not you think it's probable within the next year that you'll sell the asset. If it is, you give it that categorization. In this instance, since we're just starting the process with SoCore, we've just retained someone to help us on that process, we don't have enough market information to know if that's going to be the decision. But clearly, we are evaluating that option in a very serious way. So I think it's really sort of how the accounting works, and our actions are really, going forward, I think, indicative of the fact that we're taking seriously the process.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. And then similar note, Pedro, your remark was that you streamlined the focus on near-term needs rather than long term potential scale, does that change the – that suggests focus on getting to breakeven rather than growing, I think. Is it changing the timeframe? Without telling me what the timeframe is, but is it a sign that the timeframe is shifting?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
No, it's not. It's not meant to be a signal that the timeframe is shifting. I think as we – the team took some initial steps. You always have the tradeoffs you go through in terms of what capabilities do you get in place now today, versus which ones do you get in place next week, versus next year or the year after. And in some cases we may have gotten some capabilities a little ahead of their time. And of course you're playing in a startup business, you're paying the freight for that. And so we wanted to make the adjustment and turn down the volume knob on some areas that will be valuable. We'll probably need to build those capabilities in the future, but we can still manage the business to do what we need to do and not have that cash flowing for these activities just yet. So frankly, just read financial discipline into the alignment that we made. Does that make sense, Jonathan?
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Yeah, it does. Could you just remind me, have you made an actual commitment to sort of by when you intend to be earnings neutral?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
We have not, but we will be sharing that with you in September.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. Thank you.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thanks, Jonathan.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Gregg Orrill of Barclays. Your line is now open.
Gregg Orrill - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Yeah. Thank you. Are you able to provide any guidance on what you think the holding company expenses will be going forward? I know they came down from $0.17 to $0.08 in the guidance. I guess that was due to tax timing.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
So it was. The change was related to the benefits that we received from the share based compensation. I would say we're still in the same place we've been historically, that $0.01, $0.015 per month for the holding company is the right zone to be in.
Gregg Orrill - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Travis Miller of Morningstar. Your line is now open.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Good afternoon. Thank you.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hi.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Hi.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Just one real quick follow up on the SoCore stuff. What would other options be besides a sale?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Continuing to operate the business. I think with our strategic review, we're looking at a sale option, but we're also looking at the areas of emphasis that we have today, and do we want to turn the knob up on some of those or turn the knob down on some of those. Today, as you might recall, the business has really largely started by developing projects for commercial and industrial customers. The business has also added on community solar projects, looking at potential for other places that it could play in solar. So it's a strategic review just looking at where it can play and whether that should change and then having that view of how we would optimize the business and how we would maximize the values with EIX as the owner versus if somebody else who might be able to optimize that and signal through their response in an exploration of a sale.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Okay. So there is some probability that you would keep the business and invest in it or is that a zero probability?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
I think we've just started the process of exploring a sale so I think it's probably premature to assign probability to non-zero probabilities to outcomes.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Yeah. And this is why it's not a full asset held for sale.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Sure. Okay. And then real quick on the grid modernization, how much of those numbers in 2018 to 2020 would you have to invest in anyway, kind of put it into distribution just like what you did in 2016, 2017 with some grid mod spending? How much could you just say okay, we didn't get approval for a grid mod, we're not going to do anything versus there's still some $100 million or so that we would have to do in there? Can you give a sense for that because you guys did the grid mod, right, for 2016, 2017?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Let me kick off the answer this way. What we've done – you obviously saw what we asked for in 2016 and 2017 in terms of a memo account. We have not had action from the PUC on that. As we look more deeply at a lot of that spend, as Ron Nichols mentioned earlier, while some of that spend was design or conceived thinking about elements of grid modernization and the support for distributor resources, et cetera, there's a very gray line between the modern and the grid part to some extent, and so some of the work that supports grid modernization also supports safety and reliability in the system. And so we prioritized some of that work and proceeded with it in 2017. When we get a rate case decision, we will see what the PUC decides, what guidance they have for us, how specific that guidance is, and then we'll manage the business prudently inside that. And as we – rate cases are every three years. Clearly, the day after we get the rate case decision, the guidance is pretty fresh. Three years into the three-year cycle, things change. And I think part of the job of a prudent utility manager is to reallocate capital within reason to serve customers. So it may be that there's some reallocation that might make sense in the future. Kevin, a different view on that or anything you'd like to add?
Kevin M. Payne - Southern California Edison Co.:
I agree. And maybe I could just add a little to that. The technologies that we're using in grid modernization are not unfamiliar ones. We have a certain level of activity there today
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Okay. Great. I appreciate it.
Operator:
Our last question is from Anthony Crowdell of Jefferies. Your line is now open.
Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC:
Good afternoon. You may have just addressed it. I was just curious, two quick questions. One is, is there an ability if you maybe delayed some of the other CapEx in your proposal and worked with grid mod to just show how effective and how important it would be for California meeting their goals, and once maybe the commission sees how effective it is, some of the projects that you delayed you could add into the next case and also grid mod? Is that possible or it's just too late in the process?
Ronald Owen Nichols - Southern California Edison Co.:
Well, I think some of the -- we're doing some of that already in the pilots that have been requested by the commission, and with that exact desire in mind to be able to show how this works and do that at initially relatively modest level. As to how quickly those reviewed and move forward, it depends on the end results of that. It also depends on the continuing guidance that we get during the pendency of the GRC the guidance that may come out of the separate distribution resource plan proceeding. So there could be some initial guidance that comes out of that in that timeframe that could influence ultimate decisions on that. But even absent that, we would expect that we'll have some results during this next ERC on the pilot programs that could enable some additional activities go forward. It's hard to put a number on that at this point.
Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC:
Okay. And just lastly on Edison Energy, I don't know if the company has already done it but maybe in September, is there the ability to show what maybe different business segments are causing more of the loss and maybe evaluate those, doing an evaluation of whether you sell that and keep some of the others? Or the company's not going to give that kind of detail?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Anthony, it's Maria. I think you're kind of talking about like underneath Edison Energy, the various service lines that we have, if one or the other is driving some of this. I think we think of some of those service lines really as a whole. They are sort of the first step in providing the types of advice and advisory services to the commercial and industrial customers that we have. And then layered over that is another service line, portfolio advisory services. So I think we think of them that way. We've already gone through an assessment of other aspects of the Edison Energy group businesses. So we talked earlier this year about water, about transmission, we talked a lot today about SoCore. So yes, those pieces have been evaluated, Edison Energy and its service lines we will view as more holistically.
Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC:
And just lastly, I'd hate to go a whole call without talking about SONGS. Is there any ability to maybe settle or is there other settlement discussions scheduled?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
As I mentioned in my remarks, the whole process for the mediation is confidential so I just can't comment, unfortunately, on the prospects for the meetings or the like. Let me just reiterate what I said before that we've approached this proceeding fully and taking it very seriously. And at the end of the day, if we and the other parties involved end up agreeing on a revision to the settlement that we think is in the interest of our customers and our shareholders, then we are certainly intellectually open to that and we'd be looking at that in the context of the various other alternatives outside of a mediation process including the potential scenario of returning to litigation. So we take it pretty seriously, and unfortunately that's about all we can say at this point.
Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC:
Great. Thanks for taking my questions.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
No. Absolutely. Thanks a lot.
Operator:
There's one question queued up, and this our last and final question and it's from Ashar Khan of Verican (52:47). Your line is now open.
Unknown Speaker:
My questions have been answered. Thank you very much.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Okay. Thank you. Nice hearing you.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Thank you.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
All right. Well, before I turn it back over to Sam to do the closing, let me just say thank you all for joining us on the call today. We continue to be very focused on our businesses, and with the utility, strong alignment with what's going on in California, with Edison Energy, the potential to capitalize in the technology changes in the industry. And we look forward to our next engagement with you. And please feel free to reach back out with questions after the call if you have any. Sam?
Sam Ramraj - Edison International:
This concludes the call today. And please call us if you have any follow-up questions. Thank you.
Operator:
That concludes today's conference. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Scott S. Cunningham - Edison International Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International Ronald Owen Nichols - Southern California Edison Co. Ronald L. Litzinger - Edison International
Analysts:
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc. Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc. Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC Paul Fremont - Mizuho Securities USA, Inc.
Operator:
Good afternoon, and welcome to the Edison International First Quarter 2017 Financial Teleconference. My name is, Princess, and I'll be your operator today. Today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Scott Cunningham, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Cunningham, you may begin your conference.
Scott S. Cunningham - Edison International:
Thanks very much and good afternoon, everyone. Our speakers today are President and Chief Executive Officer, Pedro Pizarro; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Maria Rigatti. Also here are other members of the management team. Materials supporting today's call are available at www.edisoninvestor.com. These include our Form 10-Q, Pedro's and Maria's prepared remarks, and the teleconference presentation. Next week, we'll distribute our regular business update presentation. During this call, we'll make forward-looking statements about the outlook for Edison International and its subsidiaries. Actual results could differ materially from current expectations. Important factors that could cause different results are set forth in our SEC filings. Please read these carefully. The presentation includes certain outlook assumptions as well as reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure. During Q&A, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. I'll now turn the call over to, Pedro.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thanks, Scott, and good afternoon, everyone. Edison International is off to a solid start in 2017. Today, we reported strong first quarter earnings of $1.11 per share compared to $0.85 per share a year ago. It is early in the year, so for now, we have left our full-year guidance unchanged, since our normal practice is to wait until more of the year has gone by before formally updating guidance. At the same time, we recognize there is a bias toward the upper-half of the range. Maria will cover this in detail in her remarks. My comments today focus on Southern California Edison's long-term growth opportunity. I'll start with the SCE 2018 General Rate Case. SCE's filing outline a continued focus on infrastructure reliability investment. It also proposed the first elements of a multi-year grid modernization initiative, one that will be a key enabler of California's ambitious climate change policies, as well as supporting improved system reliability and public safety. As I have said before, California has only 13 years to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 40% below 1990 levels. Policymakers have identified a robust, modernized electric grid as a critical element in the effort to achieve significant GHG reductions. The CPUC will set SCE's initial pace for grid modernization in its GRC decision. Agreeing on the right pace for grid modernization will be a key topic in the GRC process, as we saw two weeks ago. In testimony submitted by the Office of Ratepayer Advocates, or ORA, they recommended zero capital spending for this key enabler of climate and clean air policy. This is contrary to the CPUC's stated goal of completing grid modernization by 2025, and we don't believe is consistent with California's climate policy objectives. Testimony from other intervenors is due tomorrow. We will respond to all intervenor testimony on June 16. We will reiterate the strong case we believe we have made for these investments in our GRC filing. In terms of rate base, ORA's overall capital spending recommendations would still yield annual rate base growth of 6.6% to 2020, above the industry average, compared to our request case of 8.6% average annual growth. This includes ORAs acceptance of about 90% of our non-grid modernization capital spending recommendations. Once we have testimony from other intervenors, we will provide an update to reflect the overall picture of intervenor positions as it relates to capital spending, and rate base, and any other major new issues. You'll hear more from us on this topic in our May Business Update investor presentation. Transmission is another important element of SCE's growth opportunity. SCE is extending and strengthening its system through a number of major projects. The paths to permitting and constructing these projects are complex, but the benefits to system reliability and greenhouse gas emissions reductions cannot be understated. This is especially important as we look ahead to the retirement of a number of gas-fired power plants owned by third parties. These are located along the coast, many in our service territory. These plants have to shut down or repower due to the future prohibition on the use of once-through cooling water. Most of them have to shut down by the end of this decade. Other projects will enable increased access to renewable energy resources. These are necessary to meet our 33% renewables target by 2020. It is particularly important to avoid regulatory delays on these and future transmission projects; these projects are foundational if we are to add new sources of low-carbon renewable energy to the grid as soon as possible. On April 12, we launched the first in our planned Edison Insights teleconferences. The topics were California's climate change policies and transportation electrification. I won't repeat the details of the call, but for those of you who could not participate, let me summarize just a few key points. First, we provided more context for the potential $1 billion multi-year investment opportunity, not currently included in our capital forecast. Most of this relates to transportation electrification. Given the broader discussion on the April 12 call, we see even more to be done in the next decade. The day after our Edison Insights call, the CPUC issued its scoping ruling on the utility transportation electrification filings. The CPUC is targeting decisions on our pilot project proposals in October of this year, and on our much larger medium and heavy-duty vehicle charging proposal in April of next year. These proposals represent a total potential investment of $574 million, almost all of it capital spending and rate base opportunity. On our April 12 call, we indicated we'll likely file our request for the second phase of our SCE Charge Ready program in the spring of next year. We will continue to target the balance of the 30,000 commercial charging systems in this phase. Now, 30,000 is roughly a third of the 100,000 systems SCE estimated would be needed to achieve the SCE service territory share of California's 1.5 million electric vehicle target by 2025. Our early cost estimate for these 30,000 charging systems was about $225 million. We will leverage the experience from our current pilot program in estimating average per-unit capital costs for this filing. A second key discussion point was the potential need for significantly more commercial charging infrastructure longer-term. This is based on the California Air Resources Board's, or CARB's recently published targets for zero emission vehicles. CARB's January 2017 recommendation calls for 4.2 million zero emission vehicles to be on the road by 2030. This goes well beyond the 2025 target I mentioned. SCE estimates that 1.9 million of these could be in our service territory, and could require as many as 220,000 commercial charging systems. In fact, as we analyze other alternative scenarios, we can see the potential need to double CARB's target of 4.2 million zero emission vehicles on the road by 2030 to meet California's GHG reduction and air quality targets in a more cost-effective way. The application we expect to file next year for the balance of the 30,000 charging systems will likely be followed by filings for significant additional investment in charging infrastructure in the next decade. Our sense is that, there will be policy support for having SCE make much of the necessary infrastructure investment. We see our main role as owning the electrical infrastructure up to the charging station, but typically not the charging station itself, and we believe there is good support for this general split of responsibilities. We will continue the conversation about our long-term growth opportunities. Our next Edison Insights teleconference will be this summer. It will focus on the long-term outlook for the distribution system. We will put grid modernization and infrastructure reliability into a longer-term context. There are two other topics I'd like to cover now. The first is the cost of capital settlement among the three investor-owned utilities and two key consumer advocate groups, ORA and TURN, covering the 2018 through 2019 period. Last week, the CPUC withdrew the proposed decision recommending settlement approval, and two new Administrative Law Judges were co-assigned to the proceeding. The next step will be to issue a revised or new proposed decision, but the CPUC has not yet provided information on timing or on reasons for these extra steps. We continue to believe the settlement is full and fair, and given that there have been no comments from other parties on the settlement, we expect it will eventually be approved. The last item is the status of the SONGS regulatory proceeding. We were disappointed to receive the news in March that the International Chamber of Commerce, or ICC, arbitration tribunal found that, while MHI was responsible for the defective design of the SONGS replacement steam generators, the contractual limit of liability capped MHI's obligations. This came in an unusual 2-to-1 decision; we understand these are normally unanimous decisions. The SONGS owners were awarded damages capped at the $137 million contract limit. Given the limited grounds to appeal an ICC arbitration award, SCE and the other owners have decided not to appeal the tribunal's decision. As we have mentioned before, as soon as the decision has been redacted for proprietary information, we will make it publicly available. As we expected, the majority of redactions have been requested by MHI. The next steps in the CPUC-ordered meet-and-confer process will be additional meetings to be held over three days in June under the auspices of a mediator, the Honorable Layn Phillips. He is a former U.S. Attorney and U.S. District Court Judge, and is a leading alternative dispute resolution mediator. Reflecting this new schedule, the SONGS' owners and most of the parties to the meet-and-confer process filed a request last week with the CPUC to extend the deadline to report on the status of the meet-and-confer process out to August 15. We are taking the meet-and-confer process very seriously, and we will engage fully and in good faith with the parties in the upcoming mediation. Same time, given our strong conviction that the existing settlement is fair and reasonable, and that the late-notice ex parte discussion between the former CPUC president and a former SCE executive had zero impact on the 10 months of negotiations among the settlement parties, we are prepared to return to litigation if the meet-and-confer process is ultimately not successful, and the CPUC takes that step. Whatever the path to ultimately resolving the SONGS matter, we are committed to doing our part to do this as expeditiously as possible, so that we, the other parties, and the CPUC and its staff can focus our collective time and resources on the other important topics we have at hand. Investing in a safe and reliable grid, modernizing the grid to support customers' choices of distributed resources, and using the grid to decarbonize our economy and clean our air are the major opportunities that the people of California are depending on all of us, together, to get right for our state's future. Well, before I turn it over to Maria, I have just one additional set of comments, and it's bittersweet. After 10 years with Edison International, Scott Cunningham will be retiring at the end of June, so this will be our last earnings call together. We expect to be able to name Scott's replacement very soon, but that individual is going to have some very large shoes to fill. Scott has been an outstanding leader on our team, and we will all miss him. Although we know that he and his wife Kathy (13:47) have great plans for many happy years ahead together. Even before joining EIX, Scott had a diverse career in Investor Relations at AES and also at Praxair, where he established their IR program. Scott's 20-year career at Praxair, which had just been spun-off from Union Carbide Corporation, included leadership roles in corporate strategic planning, business development and marketing, and finance. You all might not know that Scott began his career in research and water quality programs at the U.S. Department of Interior and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. It is so hard to imagine Investor Relations here at Edison without Scott. He built our program into something truly special. While I and the rest of our team just think the world of him, frankly the report card that matters the most is that from our investors, and by all measures, you have also given him an A+ in your informal comments, and in more formal ratings. Most recently, Institutional Investor Magazine placed Scott on the 2017 All-America Executive Team as the number two ranked IR professional in our industry, and has recognized Scott in the top rankings for several years. Scott's expertise is undeniable, but his contributions can't be captured just by numbers. And saying that Scott is an expert investor relations professional doesn't even begin to express what he has meant to us. Scott combined integrity, intellectual curiosity, and deep knowledge of our company's strategy and disclosures with a true commitment to transparent and effective communications for our investors. Scott has also been a wonderful coach and mentor to many within our organization. He has served on the Board of Trustees at the California Science Center on the company's behalf. And – it's a fun one – he was involved in bringing the Space Shuttle Endeavour to the Science Center, as well as supporting the California Science Center Foundation's educational programs. On top of it all, and I can say this after having spent many weeks on the road with Scott to visit with many of you, I can confirm that Scott met the ultimate test. He is still fun to be with even when you're stuck together in yet another airport after yet another flight cancellation. We wish Scott and Kathy (16:10) all the best in their new adventures, but we all are. and especially I am. so very sorry to see him retire. Scott, thank you so much for your outstanding leadership and friendship. You are just simply the best, my friend. With that, I'll turn the call over to Maria.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Thanks, Pedro. And I just want to echo those comments; we deeply appreciate Scott's contributions to the company. He's a wonderful colleague and thought partner, and has been an integral part of our team for the past 10 years. We will miss his expertise and counsel tremendously. We know, however, that the friendship will continue. Thank you, Scott. This afternoon, I'll now cover our first quarter results, our reaffirmed guidance and a few other financial topics. Please turn to page 2 of the presentation. First quarter results reflect strong SCE operating performance, so let's begin by looking at the key SCE earnings drivers shown on the right of the slide. Higher revenues reflect the normal attrition mechanism in SCE's current General Rate Case. As a reminder, increases in revenues are authorized by the CPUC in the second and third year of each rate case cycle. These increases essentially anticipate standard cost growth for operations and maintenance expenses, depreciation, taxes, and other items. The mechanism also provides our rate base earnings for capital additions in that second and third year. Higher revenues contributed a positive $0.12 per share variance compared to last year's first quarter. SCE continues to implement various operational and service excellence initiatives and O&M was lower in the quarter, contributing $0.06 per share to the higher earnings. I would note that some of this can be related to timing of various activities, and is not necessarily indicative of a trend line for the full year. Higher depreciation is to be expected since it's the partial offset to the higher authorized revenues related to SCE's major capital spending program. Depreciation is a $0.04 per share negative variance in the quarter. Net financing costs were also higher by $0.03 per share mainly due to increased borrowings to finance our capital program. Income tax benefits contributed $0.06 per share. This includes $0.03 per share related to the settlement of all open tax positions with the IRS for taxable years 2007 through 2012. This settlement benefit was included in our 2017 earnings guidance. The balance of the tax items relate to smaller factors such as tax benefits related to cost of removal and depreciation. Taken together, this gets us to an overall SCE earnings increase of $0.17 per share. One item not included in the quarterly results is the MHI arbitration award we received the last month. Although SCE was awarded $47 million net as its share of the award, the legal costs we incurred are subject to a reasonableness review by the CPUC. We thought it prudent to offset the gain with a regulatory liability to reflect the uncertainties around the disposition of this award. This is consistent with our approach to guidance, which did not assume any financial recovery in the arbitration. At the Edison International holding company, we include traditional holding company costs and competitive business activities, including Edison Energy Group. For the quarter, the holding company recorded $0.04 per share of earnings compared to a loss of $0.05 per share last year. This is mainly driven by $0.10 per share of higher tax benefits on stock option exercises. On a consolidated basis, we had $0.13 of tax benefits from stock option exercises this quarter, in comparison to $0.03 last year. Our guidance assumed $0.02 of benefit, based on exercises through the end of January. In February and March, we saw additional benefits from further stock option exercises. Edison Energy Group results were consistent with our full-year guidance assumptions, but not a driver of quarterly earnings variance. As a reminder, as a result of our 2016 adoption of the new FASB accounting rules on share-based payments, comparisons with the first quarter of 2016 are on an adjusted basis. Previously, we had reported $0.82 per share of core earnings in the first quarter of 2016; this is now $0.85 per share as adjusted. We presented this adjustment of the quarterly results in our 10-K and our February Business Update. The same quarterly earnings schedule is again included in the presentation appendix. Now, please turn to page 3. We recognize we had strong first quarter performance, in part driven by tax benefits from stock option exercises above what was in our original guidance. Our normal practice is to consider updating guidance later in the year, and we have reaffirmed our core earnings guidance at a midpoint of $4.14 per share with the range unchanged as well, although we acknowledge the upward bias that Pedro already mentioned. Our principal key assumptions, including SCE authorized rate base, remain unchanged. We've noted that we had $0.13 per share in tax benefits related to stock option exercises compared to the $0.02 per share in our original guidance. As noted earlier, we have not included the MHI arbitration award in our guidance or any outcomes from the current meet-and-confer process related to the SONGS settlement. Pedro commented on the key elements of ORA's testimony related to the 2018 SCE General Rate Case that are most relevant to investors, page 4 shows the details. While most of the issues that ORA raised are consistent with those raised in their testimony in the last rate case, grid modernization is perhaps the most important new topic, as expected. The bottom of the slide shows how our capital spending and rate base forecasts would be impacted if the CPUC were to adopt ORA's recommendations. Note that ORA's written testimony does not provide 2019 and 2020 capital spending estimates. It does provide forecasts of rate base. Please turn to page 5. We have reaffirmed our prior capital spending and rate base forecasts for the 2018 through 2020 GRC period based on our request. Recall that CPUC rate base earnings are derived from authorized rate base and is not adjusted in the same year if there are capital spending variances, but trued up in future periods. Also, what we call rate base math is derived from authorized average annual rate base. I mention this only because SCE could see 2017 capital expenditures ending up at $4 billion rather than $4.2 billion. This would generally reflect the lack of approval of a grid modernization memorandum account and minor delays in the start of construction for the $608 million Mesa substation project. This would not be a factor in 2017, but could result in an adjustment of CPUC 2018 rate base, which is still subject to GRC approval. Longer-term, we continue to see a base case with SCE investing at least $4 billion per year and adding at least $2 billion per year of rate base for the foreseeable future as SCE continues to implement its wires-focused business strategy. For the Mesa Substation project, SCE has extended its construction completion schedule by six months, from the fall of 2021 to the spring of 2022, to better reflect pre-construction requirements and seasonal considerations affecting the start of construction. This has only a minor impact on the profile of construction expenditures. This update came out of a project scheduling review process that SCE is undertaking for all of its major construction projects. We want our forecasting to be as consistent as possible across all of these projects, given our recent experience with regulatory delays. We were pleased to see constructive developments recently on two other transmission projects. The CPUC denied ORA's appeal of its decision approving the $1.1 billion West of Devers project on March 23. On April 7, SCE received the final environmental impact review for its $397 million Alberhill System. This review accepted SCE's recommended project scope. Final CPUC approval will still be required. Details on our capital spending, rate base and transmission projects are included in the presentation appendix. We continue to see no need to issue equity to support SCE's capital spending program. We also continue to target no dilution from benefit plans or stock purchase plans. In the first quarter, we bought common stock in the market to offset potential dilution from employee benefit plan at a net cost of $139 million. SCE continues to maintain a strong balance sheet and significant financial flexibility. SCE had no short-term debt outstanding at the end of the quarter, and the weighted average common equity component of total capitalization is unchanged from year-end at 50.4%. The Edison International holding company remains only modestly leveraged. We termed out more than half of the holding company commercial paper balance in March with a $400 million, 2.125% senior note due in 2020. We continue to maintain what we believe is a prudently conservative balance sheet at both SCE and at the holding company. That concludes my remarks, Princess, please let's start the Q&A.
Operator:
Thank you. Our first question comes from Ali Agha from SunTrust. Ali, your line is now open.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
Good afternoon.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hi, Ali.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
Scott, congratulations for a job extremely well done, and wishing you all the best as well.
Scott S. Cunningham - Edison International:
Thanks very much, Ali.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
First question, Maria, for modeling purposes, what effective tax rate should we assume for EIX for the year? And how should we think about that to book tax rate going forward as well?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
We usually think about effective tax rate at SCE at 20%, and then a percentage or two lower at EIX, so that really should be how you're thinking for the next several years.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
Okay. And that would factor in this year as well given the tax benefits that you booked?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Yeah. I would use those assumptions starting with this year, yeah.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
Okay. And then on the SONGS process, given the new date you've talked about extending it to August 15, assuming things fall into place et cetera, what's the earliest you believe you could reach a final conclusion on that issue?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hey Ali, it's Pedro. I don't think we're in a position to speculate on timing, what we've done is, we've provided visibility to the three sessions that are coming up in June. But just don't want to speculate or presume that we get resolution to these three sessions or one or two of them, the parties decide to go into more sessions, so the parties decided to have mediation, it's not going to work out, so just want to stick to the timeline as we've given it, and not speculate further. Hope you appreciate that.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
Okay. Last question, Pedro, given the ORA's position on the GRC, and I know, others will be filing tomorrow as well. Do you still believe there is a possibility to reach a settlement on this rate case or do you think it's going to be fully litigated most likely?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Again, I'm not going to be able to give you any sort of quantification of probabilities left or right on that. I think, what we said before, and would reaffirm now is, certainly open to that. The PUC staff set a schedule for the first set of settlement discussions. So we'll take them seriously, and see how it goes. So now, certainly intellectually open to that, but not in a place where we can give you a probability in either direction.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
Okay. Thank you.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thanks, Ali.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from UBS. Julien, your line is now open.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Hey.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hi, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Good afternoon. Hey, well, first-off congratulations, Scott. I really appreciate everything you've always done for us and the team, it really means a lot. So with that said, I'll just kick-off a couple, basic questions. First, in terms of SONGS, just to set the expectation, could you see a further extension or is there actually a drop-dead timeline? And then, a second unrelated question. But going back to what Sempra was talking about, on the safety-related CapEx they're talking about, the ramp. Is there any potential to see any of that flow into your CapEx, perhaps not necessarily in the current instance, but perhaps future rate cases? I'd just be curious how you think about embedding more of that safety culture?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
All right, Julien. Let me start with the SONGS piece, and turn it over to Maria or Ron Nichols for the ramp question. On the SONGS piece, kind of similar to the answer I gave Ali, don't really want to speculate on where this may go. I think, answering your question head-on, I think anything is possible. Parties could decide that they want to continue discussions. I'm not aware of (31:09) a predetermined drop-dead date or what have you. So I think we'll leave it fairly open at this point, and see where it goes. Let me turn it over to Maria on the ramp question.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Sure, so Julien, we actually will file – for our 2021 GRC, we will file a similar filing next year. It's part of the process as it is unfolding. I think, from a safety culture perspective, we actually already look at all of our capital through a safety lens and are determining all the time, with or without the ramp, whether or not we are appropriately addressing all of the safety concerns and the safety needs of the company. So I would say, you'll continue to see us have that focus on infrastructure replacement, which has both the safety aspect to it as well as the reliability aspect to it.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Great. And then lastly, I hate to bug you on this again, breakeven on Edison Energy, can you even talk about that for 2018 yet, or anything, I know that was a third quarter subject?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
So, still same comments that we made last time around, we've given folks visibility into the costs for 2017, $0.25 guidance at the total holding company level, $0.08 of that is Edison Energy, and then we will be coming back sometime in the fall with comments on the broader business plan. And that we do expect to be able to provide some insights on, at what point we would get the business to or expect to get the business to breakeven. So nothing new to report there yet. Look forward to chatting about it in the fall, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
All right. I'll leave it at that. Thank you all.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Okay. Thanks, Julien.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Jonathan Arland (sic) [Jonathan Arnold] from Deutsche Bank. Jonathan, your line is now open.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Hi, good afternoon, guys.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hey.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Hey.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
And congratulations, Scott, and thank you for all your help over the years, as well.
Scott S. Cunningham - Edison International:
Happy to, Jonathan.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Thank you. So I just wanted to ask about the cost of capital situation, and to make sure we understand the process. And there was some comments made at the Commission Meeting on Thursday about, I think, the ex parte being no longer in effect because the item was withdrawn from the agenda. Does that mean that your people can start to engage with the Commission, and figure out where they're headed with this, but you just don't have anything to share with us yet, or you may choose not to anyway, I would guess. But am I understanding that right?
Ronald Owen Nichols - Southern California Edison Co.:
Yeah. Jon, this is Ron Nichols, they have opened back up, so we can request those meetings.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Are they the sort of meetings you'd have to disclose or would they not be ex parte meetings effectively, if ex parte is not in effect?
Ronald Owen Nichols - Southern California Edison Co.:
No, they'll still be ex parte. There was a total ex parte ban for that period, they've lifted the ban, but they would still be reported meetings.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. So we might see some indication of you guys going in there and whatever, before we hear what's actually happening?
Ronald Owen Nichols - Southern California Edison Co.:
Possible.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. That was one. And then, I was also curious on what you said about the tax in February and March, you said you'd seen continued benefit. Are those similar in size to what you saw in the first quarter or are you just letting us know there's a little tail that carries on?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
No. Actually, all of the benefits from the exercise of stock options are now in the results for the first quarter. So that reference to the $0.10 variance and the $0.13 for the entire company on a consolidated basis, that takes into account all of those exercises through March.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
What you're really telling us is, you have roughly $0.10 of exercises over and above guidance for the front end of this year?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
That's correct, we had $0.02 embedded in our guidance.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. And that $0.02 would typically mostly show up in Q1, right?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Well, actually when we included it in guidance – in the original guidance, it was on the basis of option exercises that had already occurred, so they were in Q1, we knew about them.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. So it's not impossible you'd have more going through the year, but what you've had so far is roughly $0.10?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Right. It's always – you can't really predict when people will exercise, so that's what we have through the end of March.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. And could I just go back to – I think I just heard you say that, we should be using 20% as an effective tax rate, is that just a 2017 comment or does that go beyond?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
No, that's for next couple of years.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Yeah. What was your – is that what you have in the rate case filing as well or?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
The rate case filing is just a little bit more complicated just because there's a lots of puts and takes when you get into the RO (36:16) model, but from a forecasting perspective that's an appropriate number.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. And this is the primary reason for the difference with statutory rate?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
I'm sorry, could you say that again, Jon?
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
What is the – well, there's a big pictured reason for the difference with more of a normal rate?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Well, the biggest reason is really the property-related deductions, so the tax repay reductions, bonus et cetera.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Right. All right. Thanks for the help.
Operator:
Thank you. Next in queue, we have Mr. Michael Lapides from Goldman Sachs. Michael, your line is now open.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Hey guys, congrats on a good quarter.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hi, Michael.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Quick question, if I go back to the last rate case or two, when the final outcome came from the CPUC, were the ending revenue requirement in rate base assumptions, were they generally kind of closer to what your request was or were they kind of closer to what the ORA testimony implied?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Over the last few rate case, I think you know, the percentage of the CapEx that was authorized was, I'll say between the – approaching 92% in the last rate case, high 80s in the one prior to that. I think, you often do see some give and take over the course of the litigation of the proceeding, so that – where people first start in terms of their testimony when they're intervening may not be where we end up. But it's hard to say, this is a new proceeding from the perspective of – we've added the grid modernization expenditures. And so, we'll have to see how that turns out, and it's one of the reasons why we didn't provide more boundaries around the outcomes as we have in the past, simply because it's a new type of investment or a different approach that we think people will review the testimony on.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. But if I look at their testimony, their testimony actually had a little bit lower rate of return in it, just 7.2% versus the 7.9%, I'm sorry, it maybe the other way around, I'm just curious why those things would be different, I would think both the ORA and SoCalEd would be using the same assumed rate of return in the testimony?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
We definitely would be using the same assumed rate of return in testimony, based on our authorized rate of return, they may have some differences just from modeling issues or they may have adjusted some things due to, for example, things like customer deposits. So when you do the math through, it looks like a different calculated number. But I think the going in assumption on ROEs and cost of debt, et cetera, would be the same.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. And finally, just real quick. I think, the difference in rate base was about $700 million for 2018. How much of that was grid mod versus other items?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
It was really all generally related to grid mod, it's related to both the portions related to the 2018 spend, but the results of 2017 spend that we had sort of the pre-test year spend on grid mod that also affects that number.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. Thank you, Maria, much appreciated.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Michael.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Steve Fleishman. Steve, your line is now open.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Yeah. Hi, good afternoon. Just at the end of your comments on cost of capital, you did say that you expect it – it will eventually be – the settlement will eventually be approved?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Yeah. I just said...
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
And I just wanted...
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
...in my comments, and we view the settlement as a very fair one. TURN, ORA, the utilities all agreed to it, and importantly, there were simply no comments from anybody else in the proceeding. So there was no stated opposition to it.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. So even though you don't know exactly why the delay, there's nothing that would indicate any issues with the settlement?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
We're not aware of anything.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Yeah.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Of course as I also said in my comments, I don't think, the PUC has made any public statements about the reason for the withdrawal of the PD or what the timing will be for next steps. We are staying tuned in that regard.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay, great. That was it. Thank you.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thanks, Steve.
Operator:
Thank you. For our next question, we have Mr. Greg Gordon from Evercore ISI. Greg your line is now open.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hey, Greg.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Thanks. Congratulations, Scott.
Scott S. Cunningham - Edison International:
Thanks, Greg.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
It's been a long good run, unfortunately most of us have to keep working for a while. I just want to be clear when you give the guidance on the effective tax rate, when we think about rate base math, because a lot of the benefits that you're experiencing that lower the effective tax rate are ultimately putting the balancing account, and refunded the customers. We should still think about the right after-tax ROE assumption for the fiscal year for SCE still being at or around your cost of capital plus or minus incentive revenues, right? This isn't going to somehow allow you to – from a tax rate perspective earn in excess of the, the authorized return?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Absolutely correct. Yeah.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Okay. And your guidance on earnings per share at the parent as articulated, also contemplated that tax rate?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Yeah.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Okay. That's all I had. Everyone else asked my questions. Thank you.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thanks, Greg.
Operator:
Thank you. Next in queue we have Mr. Praful Mehta from Citigroup. Praful, your line is now open.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Thanks, so much. Hi, guys, and congrats, Scott.
Scott S. Cunningham - Edison International:
Thanks, Praful.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
So quickly, on O&M savings. Just want to understand the $0.06 O&M savings this quarter, how do you track that for the full year, and then going forward, given the GRC cycle, how should we think about O&M over the next GRC cycle?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
So I think, Praful, you know that, we're always working on reducing O&M costs, affordability, operational and service excellence there, it's really key components of our strategy, because we need to manage customer rates over the long-term. So we're always going to be looking for those improvements, when we get to the beginning of a next rate case cycle, things that we've accumulated over time, we're going to return to the customer, but because we have to always be working in order to get them, you'll kind of see that happening periodically up until the point, and get to the rate case and then again after that we'll continue that work. When I mentioned the $0.06 quarter-over-quarter change in O&M, this quarter that's obviously – reflects a lot of our operational and service excellence, initiatives. I was just noting that, not to extrapolate that to a trend line for the year necessarily, because you can have timing of initiatives that vary year-over-year, sometimes work happens in the latter half of the year as opposed to beginning of the year, but we have embedded in the guidance that we've given that $0.31 of combined efficiencies and financing benefit. And so, that's kind of where, I think, I would land at this point.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
And just to put an accent on that, when you think about it, Kevin Payne, and the team at SCE, at any point in time, I have a dozen or more different individual projects going on in areas of opportunity. So that adds to the rationale behind Maria's point about, this is not a simple linear process, there's real work underlying it with implementation steps that have to be taken.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Got you. Thanks, guys. That's helpful color. And then, just secondly, wanted to just understand a little bit on the strategic side. There still seems to be potential M&A opportunities that can come up at the utility level, for example, in Texas. Wanted to understand how you're thinking broadly about M&A, and if there would be any interest if any opportunities come up?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Yeah. Thanks, Praful. I'll take this one, and I think, you'll hear a repeat of similar comments I've made in prior earnings calls, general comment with Mr. Cunningham sitting here next to me, where he usually reminds me that, that we don't comment on M&A. And then, I might go further and just say that, as we look at the environment, it is an environment where we are fortunate that we have these strong organic growth opportunity that we do at SCE, some not all, but some of the transactions that we've seen out there have been expensive acquisitions done by folks who don't enjoy the same sort of organic growth opportunity, so we don't feel any pressure to go pay the heavy premiums that you're seeing in the current market, in order to go chase further growth. That said, you never say never, always we remain open to understanding the landscape, but it'd have to be at a value point that is different from what we've seen in the market recently. And finally, if you'll ever see us do a transaction, it will be very well considered in terms of not only the valuation aspects, but the actual real work behind the transaction, which is the integration aspects. That's where you see a lot of deals goes out, and when you actually get real people and real teams together, and have to merge companies, and having done some of that in my days as a consultant, we know it's very hard work.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Got you. And just finally, one quick clarification. I know, the electrification call was very helpful and you talked about the opportunity there, but what does that mean for gas generators, given there was an earnings call from an IPP talking about RMR contracts. How do you see that playing out, and is there a need to have some gas around? Thanks, guys.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
I'll give you a quick answer, and Kevin Payne or Ron Nichols might elaborate more. Thinking of the reality in our current California market is that, these resource stack includes gas, gas is needed, and I think, I've even said in prior comments that we need to make sure that the market pricing structures are fair to all the parties involved, and certainly we're seeing the pinch that gas generators are feeling. That said, over the longer-term, as we see the state continue to move towards 40% greenhouse gas reductions by 2030 and 80% by 2050, we do expect that, the amount of gas in the system will continue to be squeezed down, if the state is really going to make this greenhouse gas reduction and air quality targets. Kevin or Ron, anything you guys would add to that or?
Ronald Owen Nichols - Southern California Edison Co.:
Well, I'd just add to that, we do see a need for gas, but we're going to see more of it just being peakers and very flexible generation to be able to meet the ramps that we see as we increase more and more renewables. But it will be there likely burning less fuel over time.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Just on that point that, you might have seen, I think we talked publicly about couple of projects we did at two of our utility owned peakers, where we integrated 10 megawatts of battery storage into each of those 50 megawatt peaker projects. And to Ron's point, that's the kind of flexibility that's needed because more and more gas isn't about meeting peak demand, it's about meeting the ramps in the much more volatile California system.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Got you. Great. Thank you so much, guys.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
You bet.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from Angie Storozynski from Macquarie. Angie, your line is now open.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hi, Angie.
Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Hi, how are you? So, just a couple of small questions. So on the MHI reversal of legal costs, I understand that you haven't recorded it yet. But could you quantify it, assuming the current allocation of the award, would it be about $0.09?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Yeah. So we had about $79 million of legal expenses that we – in total, a portion of which we had already recovered, and so the remaining amount would be about $0.09 we'd mentioned in the fourth quarter call. To the extent we realize that, that would be a core item.
Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Okay. And so that would be trued up along with the update to your guidance on the second quarter earnings call, correct?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
I think we'll still be looking at the status of whether or not the CPUC has determined reasonableness before what we do that.
Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Okay. And then on the transmission ROE, I mean, I'm actually looking at the slide here, can you tell me if this 10.5% on the transmission ROE, I mean, is it still subject to the FERC quorum, what are we waiting for there?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
That's our 2017 ROE, we're going to file it later this year for 2018. So the 2017 number has already been fully litigated and negotiated; we'd have to go back at the end of this year to get a new arrangement.
Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Okay. And the last question. So yes, we're waiting for the remaining interveners to opine on your grid mod CapEx, among others. But now that you can actually talk to the Commission, are you getting any guidance or you think you're going to get any guidance as to what the Commission actually thinks about this level of spending? And what is the right pace of adaptation of those CapEx that is in a way requested by the state?
Ronald L. Litzinger - Edison International:
Yeah. Angie, this is Ron. I think that you might – there might be a little bit of confusion. When we were talking about our ability to go back and talk to the Commission, that's in the cost of capital case. We still are obviously in the middle of the GRC at this point right now.
Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Okay.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
The GRC decision is where we expect to get firm guidance on re-modernization by way of what approval that we get for the grid mod request that we made there.
Ronald L. Litzinger - Edison International:
Right. So that's...
Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Okay. So just besides the positions of the interveners we're not going to know anything about the grid mod CapEx until the GRC approval?
Ronald L. Litzinger - Edison International:
Well, there is still the separate DRP (51:27) proceeding, and earlier they had intended to have something to us by end of Q2; now it looks like that's going to slip later into the year at this point. So there could be – it could be guidance, and that, we would not – it may or not be that – it wouldn't be explicit as to the GRC. It'd be broader guidance in general – general policy is where they're headed, but that would be later this year.
Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Fantastic. And Scott, thank you so much for all your help. Thank you.
Scott S. Cunningham - Edison International:
My pleasure, Angie.
Operator:
Thank you. Next in queue, we have Mr. Travis Miller from Morningstar. Travis, your line is now open.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc.:
Good afternoon. Thank you. I think, again Scott it's worth reiterating, thank you. It's been a pleasure and certainly all the accolades are well-deserved, and I'll say, I hope you enjoy retirement in steps over time.
Scott S. Cunningham - Edison International:
Well done, Travis.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc.:
Apart from that, I have a very quick question, follow up on that O&M. So the O&M and financing benefits, this quarter, if I'm reading that correctly, it was $0.06 lower O&M, $0.03 higher financing, so net $0.03, and that corresponds to that $0.31 in guidance such that there's $0.28 left, am I reading all that correctly?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
No, the variances I was referring to were quarter-over-quarter, so year-over-year not relative to guidance. But the guidance that we gave had actually $0.31 of total benefit, we're continuing to work towards that, and extracting that value over the course of the year. So, it's two different, I'll say, comparison points.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc.:
Oh, because it was off the rate base, okay. I got it.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Thanks.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc.:
How are you tracking on that $0.31?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
So, we reaffirmed guidance at $4.14, as Pedro mentioned earlier, the bias to the upside.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc.:
Okay. Very good. Thanks a lot.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thanks, Trav.
Operator:
Thank you. Next, we have Mr. Shar Pourreza from Guggenheim Partners. Shar, your line is now open.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Hey, guys. My questions were answered. Scott, congrats on the retirement.
Scott S. Cunningham - Edison International:
Thanks, Shar.
Operator:
One moment please. Thank you. Next, we have Mr. Paul Fremont from Mizuho. Paul, your line is now open.
Paul Fremont - Mizuho Securities USA, Inc.:
All right. Thank you very much. First off all, best wishes to you, Scott and thanks for all your help. Can you guys breakout the EEG losses for the quarter and also how are you tracking relative to your expectation on the year for that?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Yeah, we have actually a table in the 10-Q when you get a chance to look at it, but it's about...
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
$6 million.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
It's $6 million, so it's roughly $0.02 or so. It's – as you know, there's no – as I noted earlier, there is no quarter-over-quarter variance, and that's consistent with the guidance that we had for the year as well.
Paul Fremont - Mizuho Securities USA, Inc.:
Okay. And then, on the holding company, what debt level would you expect to end the year at for EIX holding company?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Yeah. So we don't forecast sort of where we'll end up in terms of debt either at SCE or at Edison International. Right now, we're about 12% of the consolidated debt as a company, and we think that we're managing to a reasonable level. We're fairly conservative about the SCE and the EIX.
Paul Fremont - Mizuho Securities USA, Inc.:
And then, on absolute basis, are you about $1.5 billion at EIX parent?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
We just termed out. So that's about right. I should go back and double-check that, it's about right. All right.
Paul Fremont - Mizuho Securities USA, Inc.:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. That was the last question. I will now turn the call back to Mr. Cunningham. Mr. Cunningham, you may proceed.
Scott S. Cunningham - Edison International:
Thanks very much, Princess. First of all, I just wanted to say thanks to you, Pedro, particularly, and Maria, and those of who said nice things. It has been a lot of fun over the last 10 years. I worked with lot of you. And a few of you out there, I've worked with a lot longer than that. We won't get into those details. I do look forward to catching up with a lot of you on the phone, and also in travel later this month. So more formally, thanks very much for joining us today. And please call if you have any follow-up questions.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you and that concludes today's conference. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Scott S. Cunningham - Edison International Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International Kevin M. Payne - Edison International Adam S. Umanoff - Edison International Ronald L. Litzinger - Edison International
Analysts:
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc. Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc. Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research)
Operator:
Good afternoon and welcome to the Edison International Fourth Quarter 2016 Financial Teleconference. My name is Riya, and I will be your operator today. Today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Scott Cunningham, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Cunningham, you may begin your conference.
Scott S. Cunningham - Edison International:
Thanks, Riya, and good afternoon, everyone. Our speakers today are our President and Chief Executive Officer, Pedro Pizarro; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Maria Rigatti. Also here are other members of the management team. Materials supporting today's call are available at www.edisoninvestor.com. These include our Form 10-K, Pedro's and Maria's prepared remarks, and the teleconference presentation. Tomorrow afternoon, we will distribute our regular business update presentation. During this call, we will make forward-looking statements about the outlook for Edison International and its subsidiaries. Actual results could differ materially from current expectations. Important factors that could cause different results are set forth in our SEC filings. Please read these carefully. The presentation includes certain outlook assumptions as well as reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure. During Q&A, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. I'll now turn the call over to Pedro.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thanks, Scott. Good afternoon, everyone. Edison International delivered excellent fourth quarter and full year results, led by SCE's strong operating performance. Core earnings were $3.97 per share, at the high end of our core earnings guidance range. We have introduced 2017 earnings guidance with the midpoint of $4.14 per share, which is above consensus analyst estimates of $4.11 per share. We've been able to improve on our targeted 2017 EIX holding company costs compared to what I foreshadowed on our third quarter earnings call. Maria will provide further details in her comments. Since this is our first year-end earnings call in our new roles, I want to take a few minutes on a couple of topics from my first few months as President and CEO and from reviewing our full year results against our company goals. First is the helpful and candid feedback we received from many of you from the Investor Perception Study we launched in October and I want to say thank you. Your comments resonated well with much of what we've heard in person. In particular, it reinforced some of the strategic thinking we've had underway on maintaining a strong focus on SCE as our core growth engine and on the best areas of focus for Edison Energy Group. I'd like to touch on a few of the key non-financial metrics the board uses in measuring our performance annually. Though they may not be as critical to investors, they are critical to how we measure our performance in delivering safe, reliable, clean and affordable electricity to our customers. A major priority across our company is being safe and though we've improved our performance in our journey to injury free, we have much more to do to meet the performance of our best-in-class peers. To that end, we have elevated safety to one of our company's core values and dedicated additional senior leadership in this area. We're doing better in our customer service goals, with SCE ranking in the second quartile among peer utilities in the most recent J.D. Power survey. While we have continued to improve, our top quartile peers have continued to improve even more. We have done better in the past and first quartile is clearly achievable for SCE. Kevin, his leadership team and our employees are hard at work to make it happen. SCE also improved its cost performance, as our 2016 earnings performance demonstrates. One way we measure SCE cost efficiency is controllable O&M per customer. We also track system average rates. SCE continues to reduce O&M costs and meet our system average rate targets. Regarding SONGS, SCE continues to move into the decommissioning phase. It is also implementing the meet and confer process with interested parties in the SONGS proceeding, as required in last December's CPUC assigned commissioner ruling. The second required meeting is scheduled for February 24. We can't comment on the substance of the meetings or speculate what will come from these sessions. As part of that process, last month, we shared with the CPUC an update from the Arbitration Tribunal handling the MHI case that they expect a final decision by the end of next month. Other important metrics we follow are purchases from minority business enterprises where we continue to exceed our targets, and building a diverse workforce more reflective of our broader Southern California community. On a related note, I'm proud that Edison International has joined in supporting two national initiatives to advance gender parity, by joining the Paradigm for Parity coalition and signing the Equal Pay Pledge that was sponsored by the prior White House. We take seriously our role in creating a diverse and engaged workforce, consistent with the larger corporate social responsibility policies that we similarly embrace. At the top of that list of social responsibility policies is climate change, reflecting California's ambitious policy goals. Governor Brown, in his January 24 State of the State address, reaffirmed California's commitment to global leadership in encouraging renewable energy and combating climate change. While President Trump has signaled policy shifts in Washington, we believe Governor Brown and the California Legislature will continue to move forward with broad support from the State's electorate. As the only major all-electric investor-owned utility in California, we offer potentially unique insights in transitioning the California economy away from fossil fuels through a more robust and renewable rich electric grid. We have seen considerable interest in SCE's grid modernization proposals included in its 2018 General Rate Case and had good engagement with CPUC staff and interveners through a series of well-attended workshops. These grid modernization efforts will provide the ability to accommodate customer choices around solar, storage, electric vehicles, and energy conservation. At the same time, they will enable SCE to implement technologies and make investments in related infrastructure to enhance reliability for all customers and meet policy objectives. SCE awaits more specific CPUC guidance this fall on their views on the technology roadmap, which we expect will sync up with our GRC request. In the interim, SCE is proceeding with some modest critical path investments to ensure as much flexibility as possible so it can then ramp-up once a GRC decision is received, hopefully, by year-end. Last month, SCE and the other investor-owned utilities collectively proposed roughly a $1 billion of investment in the area of transportation electrification to complement the passenger vehicle pilot programs now underway. SCE's proposals accounted for more than half the total, at $573 million. These include some more immediate pilot projects such as electrification projects for cargo handling and other mobile equipment at the Port of Long Beach and for electric transit buses. The largest proposal is for heavy duty vehicle charging infrastructure, which will support development of appropriate battery technologies for heavy duty vehicles, including creative tariff proposals to accelerate early adoption. SCE's proposals also create an opportunity to improve the health and environment for many communities located near major transportation corridors and encourage investment in disadvantaged communities. As I look ahead toward the next decade of significant investment by utilities and by customers to move the needle meaningfully on California's greenhouse gas emission reduction goals. The pace will always need to be balanced by affordability. That's why operational excellence will remain a key element of SCE's business strategy, helping to improve both O&M costs as well as capital productivity. We are proud of having the lowest system average rate among the California investor-owned utilities and the lowest cost of capital. We believe these are two good starting points for finding the right balance of investment and customer affordability. In addition, we believe that the new types of electric loads resulting from electrification of current fossil fuel applications across the California economy in order to meet the State's greenhouse gas emission reduction goals could lead to better utilization of our grid and, therefore, help moderate rate impacts. We still see a reasonable floor for SCE investments of at least $4 billion annually in SCE capital spending and at least $2 billion annually in rate base growth. We will continue to see some timing related movement in capital expenditures and rate base, especially on transmission project approvals. We continue to see some shift to the right for projects included in our formal forecasts, which delay the rate base and earnings growth slightly. Keep in mind that, at the same time, we have more potential rate base than this in opportunities we have not yet included in our formal forecasts. Maria will cover more of the specifics in her comments. Turning now to Edison Energy Group, since our last earnings call, we have continued our strategic review of these businesses and narrowed our focus to Edison Energy Group's energy advisory services and solutions. We see great potential in integrating these into broader energy advisory services offerings for large commercial and industrial customers throughout the U.S. with a largely capital-light business model. We have scaled back business development at Edison Transmission. We see limited FERC Order 1000 opportunities in our target markets. We will continue our role as a launch partner for the Grid Assurance initiative to support transmission system reliability nationally. We have also shut down the Edison Water Resources business development effort. We have moved key individuals from both businesses to other roles in the company. And we still plan on a much more robust business plan discussion regarding the commercial and industrial energy advisory services business with all of you by this fall. In the meantime, we want investors to see these businesses as a long-term valuation upside, not a near-term valuation drag. Looking ahead, some of the key macro topics driving our long-term growth opportunities and performance are broad topics like California's climate change targets and policy enablers such as transportation electrification, grid modernization, and new transmission investment. These are all underpinnings of our growth strategy and warrant a deeper dive than what we can cover in an earnings call and in our quarterly investor materials. So in April, we're going to launch what we call the Edison Insights series of periodic conference calls and videos on topics such as these. We look to have prepared remarks, as we do for our earnings calls, along with presentations and Q&A. The first of these will be the week of April 10 and we'll cover the California climate change policy arena and transportation electrification. We hope these will be helpful additions to our investor dialogue. With that, Maria will provide her financial report.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Thanks, Pedro and good afternoon, everyone. My remarks cover our fourth quarter and full year results compared to last year and to our 2016 earnings guidance. I'll then cover the 2017 guidance that Pedro has already highlighted, update our capital spending and rate base forecasts and touch on a few other topics. Please turn to page 2 of the presentation. Fourth quarter core earnings grew 16% on SCE's strong performance. As was the case in previous quarters, SCE earnings comparisons still have some timing issues related to the adoption of the General Rate Case decision in the fourth quarter of last year. The principal earnings growth driver is lower operations and maintenance costs, which contributed $0.09 of the $0.15 per share in SCE core earnings growth. Revenues primarily reflect the normal GRC attrition year increases and modest additions to FERC revenues to reflect additional construction and operating costs. We also had a positive $0.09 per share revenue variance, primarily due to recognition of the impact of the GRC decision in the fourth quarter last year. Roughly half of this is offset in taxes. Higher depreciation reflects SCE's ongoing capital spending program. Net financing costs, which include allowance for funds used during construction, AFUDC, together with interest and preference stock dividend expense, are $0.05 per share higher in the quarter. This largely reflects $0.03 per share of lower AFUDC contribution due to less construction work in progress. AFUDC rates of return, however, are still above average, given SCE's low short-term debt balances and the contributor to our earnings relative to rate base math, as I'll discuss in a few minutes. Overall, there was not a variance within the income tax line for SCE, although there is $0.04 of tax benefits on stock options, largely offset by the GRC revenue item I mentioned earlier. The $0.04 benefit is related to the new accounting standard that requires recognition in earnings of the permanent tax benefit that arises when employees exercise stock options. Previously, this flowed to the balance sheet only. As we noted in the third quarter 10-Q, we adopted this standard early, in the fourth quarter. We similarly anticipated this adoption in our November earnings guidance update, although the actual amount recorded in total for the company is higher than our guidance assumption. To finish up on the SCE earnings discussion, there is a $0.01 per share of other items, primarily from insurance programs. This gets us to a 17% increase in core earnings or $0.15 per share for SCE. Let's look next at Edison International parent and other. This includes both core holding company operating costs as well as the Edison Energy Group businesses. The same adoption of the new accounting standard on share-based payments applies here. The overall $0.02 per share positive benefits at the holding company are from tax benefits from stock options, partly offset by other tax items. Moving next to Edison Mission Group, comparisons reflect the continued absence of earnings from the affordable housing portfolio sold in the fourth quarter of last year. To finish up, the only non-core items in the quarter relate to the EME bankruptcy. Last year's fourth quarter results include non-core charges for the final accounting for the GRC implementation and the NEIL insurance recoveries at SCE. Also included are the sale of the EMG affordable housing portfolio and the non-core treatment of certain tax equity income at SoCore Energy, as well as results from discontinued operations. Turning to page 3, the full year core earnings story is much more straightforward since the GRC quarterly timing issues are not relevant on an annual basis. Remember that last year's core results included a $0.31 per share benefit from a change in uncertain tax positions. This dampens the overall earnings comparisons. Excluding this item, SCE core earnings increased 8% in 2016. It's probably more helpful to compare our results to our earnings guidance. Please turn to page 4. Overall, core earnings of $3.97 per share are $0.06 per share higher than the midpoint of guidance. SCE earnings are $0.04 per share higher, due primarily to increased O&M savings and financing benefits, partially offset by lower energy efficiency incentive award and higher income tax expense. Edison International parent and other losses of $0.25 per share are $0.02 per share better than guidance, largely from the stock option accounting item. Edison Energy Group full year results are generally consistent with our guidance. As Pedro touched on in his remarks, we've taken time since the third quarter call to assess the priorities and opportunities at Edison Energy Group and narrowed our strategic focus accordingly. The actions he summarized are reflected in our updated 2017 guidance. Please turn to page 5. Our 2017 earnings guidance is built off the rate base model we have discussed with you in the past. We have used our updated 2017 weighted average rate base forecast of $26.2 billion, which is $200 million lower than our prior rate base guidance. This provides a SCE starting point of $4.05 per share. As we saw in our 2016 financial results, we anticipate further O&M cost savings that will be returned to customers starting in 2018 under SCE's GRC filing. We also anticipate continued financing benefits related to long-term debt costs and above-trend AFUDC earnings relative to what are assumed in our rate base math. Together, these total $0.31 per share. We also assume $0.03 per share in energy efficiency earnings. This gives us $4.39 per share as a midpoint for 2017 SCE GAAP and core earnings guidance. For EIX parent and other, our guidance is at a loss of $0.25 per share. Costs for the holding company itself are estimated at $0.17 per share, which is consistent with our prior informal guidance of a little more than $0.01 per share a month. The lower Edison Energy Group losses make up the difference. This gets us to a midpoint of $4.14 per share. We are including a range of $4.04 to $4.24 per share. Our key assumptions are as follows. One, a base CPUC ROE of 10.45% and FERC ROE of 10.5%. Two, no changes in Federal or state tax policy. Three, shares outstanding are kept flat at 325.8 million shares through share purchases to offset incentive plan share needs. Four, we assume the SONGS settlement continues to be implemented as approved. Five, we exclude any decision on the MHI arbitration, which could include core earnings benefits from recovering legal costs and non-core earnings benefits from the balance of SCE's share of an award, if any. And six, we assume tax benefits from stock options of $0.02 per share recognized in January 2017. Please turn to page 6. We have updated our SCE capital spending forecast largely to reflect revised estimates for the timing of major transmission projects. Overall, capital expenditures between 2016 and 2020 are approximately $450 million lower, with $350 million of the change related to transmission projects. First, spending on the Tehachapi transmission project is essentially completed. Now that the line is in full service, we've removed roughly $90 million from our forecast to reflect lower final project costs. This benefits our customers, but reduces rate base for 2017 and beyond. We were pleased to receive the final CPUC approval for our Mesa Substation Project earlier this month. SCE is now moving ahead on construction planning activities, with actual construction to start in the second quarter. This decision, as with the West of Devers project approval from the U.S. Bureau of Land Management published in January, reaffirms our view that approval and construction of our key California ISO-driven projects are more a matter of timing rather than whether they will be built. With increased clarity around the planning process, construction completion for some projects is now scheduled for 2021 and 2022 and a portion of the spending previously anticipated to occur through 2020 will now occur in that later time period. Though the projects are all scheduled to be in service by 2021, there can be some final remediation and closing out of final project costs following a project being placed in service. The details on our larger transmission projects are included in the presentation appendix. Note that our updated forecast does not include approximately $1 billion of potential capital investments that we have outside of normal GRC and FERC spending that could be approved and implemented between 2017 and 2022. This includes the significant transportation electrification proposals that Pedro discussed and the second phase of SCE's Charge Ready program for passenger vehicles, as well as any appropriate storage investments under existing and future CPUC guidelines. I'll come back to this shortly. Please turn to page 7. The capital spending shifts have been incorporated into our estimate of rate base through 2020. Rate base at that point is lower than prior forecasts. However, we expect that to reverse in 2021 and 2022. The reason for the catch-up in 2021 and 2022 is the manner in which certain FERC projects are added to rate base. Some are added to rate base during construction while for others, cumulative capital is added to rate base when the project is complete. Also, keep in mind that our rate base forecast is on a weighted average year basis, consistent with how SCE earns its return. So this also contributes to the time lag. As those projects achieve completion in 2021 and 2022, rate base will adjust upward accordingly. On the chart, this is the $500 million increase offsetting the $500 million decrease in 2020. However, this does not change the fundamental above average growth opportunity we see at SCE. Depending on our own recommendations on timing and on CPUC approvals, there may be additional rate base earnings potential in this period. Please turn to page 8. We've talked about most of these opportunities previously, but thought it a good reminder, and so, we've revised this slide to include the significant transportation electrification proposals that SCE recently filed. The first two elements, infrastructure reliability and grid modernization, are at the heart of our current and future General Rate Cases. Our currently identified transmission projects will continue through 2021 and 2022 and in the interim, the California ISO will be planning for potential additional transmission requirements to meet the 50% renewables mandate for 2030. Most of the potential for energy storage rate base investment is a future opportunity, as is transportation electrification. On page 9, we've identified several other topics I'll touch on more briefly. The first is the CPUC cost of capital settlement now pending before the CPUC. The details on the mechanism are included on page 10. We believe the outcome is a fair balance between customers and shareholders. It continues what we see as a constructive mechanism that provides visibility and transparency on potential changes in allowed rates of return and authorized costs of debt and equity. As we indicated in our 8-K filing, we have estimated the earnings impact in 2018 preliminarily at $66 million pre-tax or $0.12 per share. The true-up of long-term debt authorized rates to estimated actual rates is $41 million of the $66 million. The true-up of preferred equity is actually a positive $4 million, as SCE's portfolio cost is slightly higher than what is authorized. And the new ROE of 10.3% could have a roughly $29 million impact. Ultimately, the impacts will depend on the final outlook for interest rates and preferred dividend rates, as well as the timing of SCE financings. We will file those debt and preferred rates of return with the CPUC in the fourth quarter. Staying on page 9, our current FERC settlement runs through calendar year 2017. We plan to file our 2018 FERC formula rate filing in the fourth quarter. Our current FERC settlement terms would remain in effect, but subject to adjustment, until a new formula rate is approved. SCE's balance sheet remains strong, with the weighted average common equity component of total capitalization at 50.4% compared to the required 48%. SCE had commercial paper outstanding of $769 million compared to long-term debt of roughly $10.3 billion. SCE termed out $300 million in a separate bank credit facility early in 2017. SCE will continue to access the capital markets for first mortgage bonds and preferred equity, consistent with our capital spending forecast. At the holding company, we maintain a modest amount of debt. We have $400 million of senior notes maturing this year, and we will look to refinance that at some point. We continue to see no need for equity issuance to support SCE's capital spending program at this time. Please turn to page 11. Our growth opportunities remain intact even with potential tax reform. Let's consider the possible elements, interest deductibility, tax rate and capital expensing from a customer perspective. Most impactful to customers would be the negative effect of eliminating the deductibility of interest expense. As a pass-through under the cost of service model, this would result in a permanent increase in customer rates. Lower tax rates are a positive to customers and would mitigate some of the interest deductibility impacts on customer rates. Full capital expensing will result in higher deferred taxes, although also mitigated by lower tax rates. Over time, this will lower customer rates. The specific impact will depend on the relationship between these changes and the current rate making methodology of immediately passing certain accelerated property related deduction benefits to customers. Edison International also benefits from the interest tax shield, although the modest amount of holding company debt mitigates the impact of eliminating interest deductibility. A lower tax rate also reduces the value of the tax shield created by holding company costs. In addition, a lower tax rate would reduce the value of the EIX holding company tax assets, the net operating losses and tax credits, which largely relate to the EME bankruptcy settlement. A remeasurement of these assets would be triggered by a lowering of the tax rate. There are still many unknowns regarding tax reform and implementation, but we have considered these key elements and overall, we believe that we can deliver long-term above-average rate base growth with associated earnings and dividend growth opportunities. I'll close with a comment on what we see as our above industry average dividend growth opportunity. Please turn to page 12. In December, we increased the dividend by $0.25 per share for the third year in a row, and are proud of our record now of 13 years of annual dividend increases. We still have plenty of opportunity to grow our dividend toward the high end of our target payout range. Based on the midpoint of our 2017 SCE earnings guidance, we are at 49% of our payout target of 45 % to 55% of SCE earnings. The dividend will need to grow faster than earnings to move toward the high end of the range. That's it from me, Riya. Would you please open the call for questions?
Operator:
One moment for the first question. The first question is from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with UBS.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Hi, good afternoon.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hi, how are you?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Hi, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Good. First quick question if you could. You talked about the $0.08 with Edison Energy, Pedro more for you, can you discuss perhaps the line of sight on turning that around and how should we read anything into $0.08 relative to the north of minus $0.10 previously?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Yeah. Let me just comment on it briefly and Maria or Ron Litzinger can add, as needed. In the last earnings call, we first focused on 2017 in total holding company guidance. And we told you then that, while we were not ready to provide you all the details in Edison Energy, we wanted to make sure that folks understood that we were working at holding the total holding company expenses including Edison Energy, the $0.27 for 2017, and now, you see that we've updated that to be $0.25 for the year, of which $0.08 is the piece in Edison Energy. Hopefully, it gives folks comfort that we are very focused on driving the work at Edison Energy in a disciplined way. We see a big opportunity there, Julien, but we also recognize that investors do want line of sight in terms of what the ongoing investment looks like. I'm glad that we've been able to affirm that $0.08 for 2017. As I had shared in the third quarter call, we expect to provide you more detail on – the details behind the business plan for Edison Energy no later than the fall of this year. So until we get to there, I'm going to hold off and I don't have any new news to report other than that we continue that work. In the meantime, we're out in the market. We continue to be encouraged by the activities across the piece parts of Edison Energy and are looking forward to sharing more with all our investors.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Got it. Excellent. Perhaps to expand on that a little bit as a follow-up, which businesses are looking more attractive within the Edison Energy, within the $0.08, within your business plan, I know I'm pushing a little bit further, but can you give us a sense on what you see your primary focus has been or will be given kind of the different activities you're pursuing?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Yeah. I think the easiest, and frankly, the shortest way to answer that is, we're focused on the advisory services across the large C&I customer space. I don't think we're ready to provide a lot of detail on, this piece looks better than that piece, because quite frankly, part of the larger gear is that providing that broader set of advisory services across the full portfolio of needs is the core idea. And so, we'll have more to share with you as we get into the details of the business planning exercise by the fall. But nothing to report right now on this piece looks better than that piece or actually we're seeing value and having expertise across the gamut of on-site and off-site renewables, energy efficiency and building management and bringing that suite together is the value nugget here in terms of more customer needs.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Great. Thank you.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thanks, Julien.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from Ali Agha with SunTrust.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
Thank you. Good afternoon. First question, Pedro, a big picture, as you laid out your updated rate base CAGR 2016 through 2020 is 8.6%, but over the last – this rate case cycle, you've been benefiting significantly in your core earnings from the tax benefits and also the O&M savings, at a minimum the tax benefits go away, O&M probably get strewed up as well in the next GRC. But then, the Edison Energy losses would move around as well. So when I look at that mathematically of your 2016 actual earnings that you've booked here, how should I think about the EPS CAGR versus the rate base CAGR given that you're actually over-earning on the EPS front right now?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Hey, Ali, it's Maria. So obviously, there are some things in the mix that I think you mentioned that aren't flowing through to the bottom lining, more primarily around the tax benefits in the early part of two years or three years or four years ago that we're seeing. But we continue to find or look for opportunities where we can actually reduce our costs and put ourselves on a good trajectory. We have opportunities there. We talked a little bit about the opportunities that we're looking at relative to other capital investments, Pedro mentioned the transportation electrification proposal that we recently submitted. So we think that there are opportunities across the board that we can be looking at and incorporating on a go forward basis around our earnings.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
So what you would say, Maria, is given all the puts and takes EPS CAGR should be in line with the rate base CAGR?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
We certainly think that our earnings and our rate base are aligned.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
Okay. And my second question, and I think you alluded to that up a little bit in your remarks as well, but on the dividend front, is the goal to eventually end up at the higher end of the range? As you mentioned, you're pretty much at the midpoint right now. So we're not done yet in terms of ratcheting up the payout ratio, is that correct?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Ali, yeah, that's been our payout ratio range for a long time, 45% to 55%. We'll continue to work it, as we move forward in time, but I think that that incepts over time, we want to be there.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
The higher end, did I hear that right?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
We want to be in that range over the long-term, yeah.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from Angie Storozynski with Macquarie.
Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Thank you. Just...
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hi, Angie.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Hey, Angie.
Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Thank you. Two questions. One is, so given the pending GRC and the fourth quarter filing on the true-up on the cost of debt, should I basically assume that you'll have no efficiencies in your earnings in 2018?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Well, certainly, when we file a GRC, the tendency would be to give things back to the customer, that's the construct around which we try and find efficiencies whether it's around O&M or debt. So I think you'll see that as we move forward. On the other hand, as we continue to work and we continue to probe the opportunities that we have, we will still work on finding and achieving additional efficiencies, which – then when we get back to the next rate case, we'll get back to customers once again. So I think you'll see that as sort of our mantra and certainly the cycle that we go through here.
Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Okay. And the second question on the potential MHI arbitration award, you said the amount equivalent to the costs incurred would be reflected in core earnings. Can you remind us what are those costs?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Sure. So that would be really just costs associated with legal expenses that we have previously incurred through core earnings and that would be if we were – we don't know what the award would be or if there would be an award at this point, but if we were to recover anything and we had sufficient amounts to cover prior legal expenses, that would be about $0.09 per share.
Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Very good. Thank you.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thanks, Angie.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from Jonathan Arnold with Deutsche Bank.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Yeah, good morning, guys – good afternoon, guys, excuse me. I just have quick question Pedro on the non-GRC capital spending that you referenced in the slide, but it's now between grid modernization and the mobile home program. It's $289 million and last quarter that was $100 million or so higher, I think, between the two. What's driving the change there and what you're assuming you'll spend outside the GRC, is there some indication from staff, the things in grid mod that causes you to be more cautious there?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Hi, Jonathan. It's Maria. No, it's nothing about grid mod is causing us to be more cautious, but I think the grid mod numbers for 2017 haven't changed at all since Q3. We are finding some efficiencies in some of the unit cost, if you will, on some of the programs outside of grid mod, so that's really all you're seeing roll through that.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
And then, Jonathan, it's something that we'll continue to be very keen on. I know we mentioned in the comments, but obviously, while we present an important growth opportunity here for investors, we want to make sure that it's good capital and in our view, good capital is efficient capital. So just like we're doing the O&M, we'll continue to look for capital productivity opportunities for customers.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay, great. Thank you. And then, just you talked about the reasons for the rate base decline in 2020 having to do with the way that – I think if I understood this right, the way that grade making rolls the projects into rate base. So I'm just curious what change did something in the rate making change or is it more just the timing to let to the rate, because I'm presuming that would have been the case in November too.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
So certainly, it all starts with the timing slipping to the rate. In the various projects that we have that are part of our FERC rate base, some of the projects are actually eligible for certain incentives, specifically where the capital enters rate base while it's still in construction. So CWIP incentives, others do not. And when you have projects move around that aren't subject to that incentives, staggering it by a year can actually, in that first year or two, have an outsized impact, and then, you catch up when you get to the first full year.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. So it's not that the methodology changed, it's more the timing changed.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Correct.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. Great. And then, just finally on Edison Energy, you say you're narrowing the focus. So does that embed it within that statement? Are there businesses that you acquired that you're not going to continue with? Or just how can you help us understand what's actually changing in that narrowing of focus?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Sure, Jonathan. And I think I covered it in my comments that the two specific examples we wanted to highlight were with Edison Transmission where we have been pursuing opportunities in the various organized markets. The reality is that we are just not seeing the same level of opportunity under FERC Order 1000, as I think the whole market thought there might be at one point. And now, in particular, as we think about what the impacts maybe of the new administration of Washington, potentially moving away from the clean power plant implementation that is probably continued negative for the likely availability of FERC Order 1000 project. So Edison Transmission was one of two businesses we wanted to highlight where we're decreasing the level of effort there, although still keeping our position in Grid Assurance. The second one that I highlighted was Edison Water Resources. I think I had mentioned that in the past as an exploratory activity. We had a team that did a lot of great work there and there's clearly customer interest, but frankly, it's a market that it's still not mature in terms of the transparency of pricing and just the complexity of regulation across it. And so, while we saw some real technical feasibility there, and frankly, I think water is something that's important to society over the long run, our judgment after doing some pilot work was that, the mass there wasn't a good fit for us at this time. And I think as we look at potential opportunities broadly across the space, some of this is exploration on the radar screen and try some of these and we determine that they are not ripe or prime, then we move on. And so, we moved on Edison Water Resources. So those were the two. We remain very focused on the central idea of the energy advisory services for large commercial and industrial customers, and so, I was not trying to telegraph anything about businesses inside that portfolio.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. That's great. I hadn't realized that was sort of an expansion of that comment. So thank you, Pedro.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
You bet.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
And then, just finally on that, you talked about 2017 guidance factor, lower EEG losses, the $0.08, had you previously disclosed the bigger EEG number, I thought it was all kind of wrapped within the holding company?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Yes.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
That's right.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
It was previously all in that $0.27.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. So you're just commenting that there was a bigger number in that before, but it was kind of within the $0.27?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Correct.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
That's right.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Great. All right. Thank you very much.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thanks, Jonathan.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from Praful Mehta with Citigroup.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Hi, guys.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hey, there.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Hey.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Hi. So quickly on Edison Energy, I know you don't like to touch or dig deep into it, but just wanted to understand from a tax reform perspective, any implications on what that could mean from a growth strategy, I know it's more capital light, but wanted to just understand if it has any implications for you guys?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
So I think it's the same thing probably that lots of other companies have been telling you. We'll be obviously looking at any sorts of border taxes and how that affects costs for our company and others, and how it would impact our customers. And also, in terms of tax rate, tax rate affects every company, and so as that changes, we'll be keeping an eye on that as well.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Yeah, I mean, and just to tag on to that, so I do think Maria has it right that it might be some impacts on what the overall cost position is, but that wouldn't be just for our offerings, it would be for the offerings of other folks in the space, other competitors as well. And I think, importantly, as we look at the large C&I customers that the business is aiming to serve, they're being driven by a lot of things, they're being driven by economics, they're being driven by sustainability objectives, the tax changes could have some impact on some of the underlying costs, but at this point, we don't see a material change in the overall interest that large C&I customers have in the broad portfolio advisory services theme.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Got you. And that's very helpful color. And then, secondly, on community choice aggregation, the CCA, there is an expectation of meaningful amount of load being served through CCAs over time. Any implications for you guys, how do you see that going forward in your service territory?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Well, let me give a top-level answer, and then, perhaps Ron Nichols or Kevin Payne want to answer further. I think the short answer is that while I think we've mentioned we could see low departures of as much as 40% to 50% by 2025 or so, under the rules set by the legislature, under the framework set by the legislature, there should be no impact to our investors, because it's just all really about who is serving the commodity energy needs, but those customers would still be relying on our grid investments for provision of electricity. So done right, should be no impact, that we do spend time on making sure that the program is implemented appropriately so that there isn't that cross subsidization between folks – having the folks who are leaving being cross subsidized by some of the remaining customers, and so, we have a lot of focus on making sure that the rules are being implemented right. Ron or Kevin, anything you'd like to add there?
Kevin M. Payne - Edison International:
Praful, this is the issue that we're dealing with right now. And the Commission is tracking this. They've been having workshops on this matter as well to get more clarity about how they plan to implement the legislative rules on this. So we're just going to continue to track that carefully.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Okay. And I'm assuming then cross subsidization is the core issue just to ensure that that is done fairly?
Kevin M. Payne - Edison International:
Yes.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Got you. Thank you, guys.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Hey, guys. Congrats to a good end to 2016. Two questions, one on the dividend payout ratio. And can you talk a little bit, Pedro or Maria, about why the 45% to 55%, why you and why the board still thinks that's the right metric? I mean if I think about what happened, you still have $4 billion-ish plus of CapEx, maybe even closer to $4.5 billion to $5 billion, but the overall size of the company is significantly bigger since you first set that as a payout ratio target, depreciation that's what covered in rates and cash flow is significantly bigger. Just talk about how the board today versus five years ago comes to that level as the target, what are some of the metrics you look at in setting that target?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Let me kick it off and Maria may have more here. I think at the end of the day, we're looking to provide a total shareholder return to our investors and we deliver that through both the dividend growth as well as the earnings growth. And like you said, we have a very strong and, frankly, I'd say, a premium growth story relative to our peers across the industry, driven largely by the organic growth opportunity at SCE, and that rate base growth is driving earnings growth and we view that as being above industry average earnings growth, which I think coupled with above industry average dividend growth rates to deliver a very compelling package to our investors. So we don't look at a dividend growth rate in isolation. We looked at married with the earnings growth rate. And so, as we look at what that earnings growth rate is, the board and we and management still feel that that 45% to 55% payout range present a compelling attractive opportunity when coupled with the earnings growth rate. Maria, anything else you'd add there?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
No. Michael, I think it's all part of the package. The total value that we're delivering to shareholders is not just one piece or the other.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. The other thing is and this is a rate base question. So 2016 CapEx came in a couple of hundred million dollars lower than I'd think your last business update or your last forecast had. 2017 is a couple of hundred million dollars lower than your last forecast. If I add those up, I don't get to the same number that 2018 is down, and maybe my math is off, but 2018 rate base is actually down less than what the sum of the 2016 and 2017, if I just added up what the differences in old versus new CapEx was going to be any. Can you help A, make sure help me understand what's going on there and it may just be a timing deal? And B, what drives such a big step-up in rate base in 2018 over 2017? I mean you talk about having $4 billion plus of CapEx, but $2 billion of rate base growth, and yet, rate base growth in that year is over $3 billion?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Okay. So maybe let's take the piece parts of your question. So the first part of your question was, you see capital spending down in the first couple of years, but not a commensurate decline in rate base and some of that really is the timing issues that we've talked about before. It's timing that then rolls through, as you move out towards the end of the 2020 period, you can see that rate base more catches up with the reduction in capital spending, and then, you'll see that offset again through 2022. Part of that's related also to just how do projects enter rate base, do they have this incentive feature or not. And then also, every time you change particular assets that are in rate base, you will get in different impact on accumulated deferred taxes. So there's a lot of things like that that roll through. But at the end of the day, CapEx and rate base, they catch up with each other. In terms of your second question as to why there's a step-up in 2018, when we bought – so right now, we're deploying capital, et cetera, we filed our 2018 GRC. We actually have a true-up in the 2018 GRC to reflect the capital that we've been spending over the course of the last few years. If you recall, in the 2015 GRC, the way that our revenue requirement is set in 2016 and 2017 is by looking at capital additions and capital additions and escalation on those capital additions. Capital expenditures, ultimately, match the escalation in capital additions, but because of that, that methodology that the CPUC has adopted, which is frankly a simplified methodology, you'll see a catch-up in 2018 when we go into our next rate case.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. Okay. Thank you, guys. Much appreciate it.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thanks, Michael.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from Anthony Crowdell with Jefferies.
Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC:
Hey. Good afternoon. Just the company, and I guess the other utility down in the state were very – I guess, got a very balanced decision in cost of capital. Can I use that the same parties involved to think about the discussions around SONGS or are there other parties involved?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
I'll turn it over to Adam Umanoff, but I think the broad message here is, we had a constructive outcome in terms of a cost of capital proceeding, where those parties involved, the SONGS matter, separate matter (52:56) we have, obviously, we want to make sure we have a constructive set of discussions with the parties involved there. You saw the assigned commissioner ruling that from December that setup this whole meet and confer process and so we had our first meeting, we'll have our second meeting coming up at the end of February, and I know we'll certainly do our part to have constructive discussions with all the parties, but we cannot handicap at this point where that might lead. Adam or Ron Nichols, anything to add to that?
Adam S. Umanoff - Edison International:
I wouldn't add anything, Pedro.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Okay. Thanks.
Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC:
Just what other – are there like a very important party involved with the SONGS discussion that are not involved with cost of capital?
Adam S. Umanoff - Edison International:
This is Adam Umanoff. There are a number of parties involved in the SONGS proceeding who are also involved in the cost of capital negotiations. But the playlist of parties in the SONGS proceeding is wider. Anyone who intervened in that proceeding has a seat at the table.
Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC:
Great. Thanks for taking my question.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from Travis Miller with Morningstar.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hi, Travis.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Good afternoon. Thank you. Just one on the transmission side, if you think out the 5 years, 10 years, whatever, how close is the transmission system, especially where you guys are to getting to that 50% RPS to be able to transmit all that power that might be needed for the 50%, and then, I'll add on to that about the 100%?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
I think, a couple of comments on that, and again, Kevin Payne, Ron Nichols may have more to say here. Ultimately, we look to the California independent system operator to do the planning for that and they are still working on the planning to meet 50% renewables. So that really return it to them, you mentioned 100% renewables, we did see a draft bill that was submitted by the pro Tem of the Senate, Kevin De León, last week, that would accelerate the State to 100%. It calls for reaching the 50% mark by 2025, and then, reaching a 100% renewables by 2045, that is, as you can imagine, early days of the legislative session. Last week was the deadline for submitting bills, often place holders gets submitted, so we'll be obviously ready to engage in discussions as that (55:35) and other proposed bills make their way through the process, but I don't think that the ISIL has included a 100% renewables that I know of in any of the scenarios so far. Ron, Kevin anything to add?
Unknown Speaker:
Yeah. Just to maybe clarify that the projects necessary, I mean 33% are already identified and underway planning in the upcoming cycle at the California, and so, we'll determine what projects are needed for 50%, and beyond that point, I don't believe that are going away (56:06).
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Okay. So the incremental you get 50% or even a 100% is not included in your forecast, right? Because (56:14).
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Yeah. Certainly, no.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
2020, 2021. Okay.
Unknown Speaker:
That's right.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Okay. And then, real quick, very generally speaking, what are you seeing in terms of corporate renewable energy purchases? I guess it gets somewhat into the Edison Energy, but even just more broadly, what you're seeing from corporations who want to buy renewable energy?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Let me ask Ron Litzinger to comment on that.
Ronald L. Litzinger - Edison International:
Yeah. As we – Edison Energy corporate PPA is a significant portion of our business and it continues to grow strong and we see interest and growing year-over-year. So it continues to be an important part of the business.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Is there any way to quantify that in terms of percent of system or percent of renewables delivered anything like that, any numbers in that?
Ronald L. Litzinger - Edison International:
No, not at this time, let's think that would be included in the business plan in the fall.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Okay. Great. Thanks a lot.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thank you.
Operator:
That was the last question. I will now turn the call back to Mr. Scott Cunningham.
Scott S. Cunningham - Edison International:
Thanks very much, everyone, for participating today. If you have any follow-up questions, please do give us a call. Thanks and good evening.
Operator:
And that concludes today's call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Scott S. Cunningham - Edison International Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International Ronald Owen Nichols - Southern California Edison Co.
Analysts:
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker) Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker) Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc. Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research)
Operator:
Good afternoon and welcome to the Edison International Third Quarter 2016 Financial Teleconference. My name is Christie, and I will be your operator today. Today's call is being recorded. Now, I will turn the call over to Mr. Scott Cunningham, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Cunningham, you may begin your conference.
Scott S. Cunningham - Edison International:
Thanks, Christie, and welcome, everyone. Our speakers today are President and Chief Executive Officer, Pedro Pizarro, and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Maria Rigatti. Also here are other members of the management team. Materials supporting today's call are available at www.edisoninvestor.com. These include our Form 10-Q, Pedro and Maria's prepared remarks, and the teleconference presentation. Tomorrow afternoon, we will distribute our regular business update. During this call, we will make forward-looking statements about the future outlook for Edison International and its subsidiaries. Actual results could differ materially from current expectations. Important factors that could cause different results are set forth in our SEC filings. Please read these carefully. Presentation includes certain outlook assumptions as well as reconciliations of non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure. During Q&A, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. I'll now turn the call over to Pedro.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thank you, Scott, and good afternoon, everyone. I'm excited and also humbled to be here on this first earnings call with Maria in our new roles. I want to thank Ted Craver and Jim Scilacci for all of their help in our transition over the summer. I also thank many of you who Ted and I had an opportunity to visit in September. While the main purpose of our visits was to share our key messages on continuity of leadership and continuity of strategy, I believe I benefited the most from the visit as the dialog helped me a great deal. I look forward to our continued discussion and our team will strive hard to maintain our commitment to transparency and full engagement with our investors. In today's call, Maria will cover the financial results, so I will focus on the recent strategic developments at SCE and in California that will help shape Edison International's long-term growth. I'll start with the SCE's 2018 General Rate Case filed September 1. This filing demonstrates SCE's commitment to three key strategy elements. First
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Thanks, Pedro. It is a privilege and honor to be here and I look forward to working with everyone in my new role. Now, let's review the number. I plan on following a format similar to what we've been using in prior earnings calls, commenting on the financial results, our updated guidance, our capital plans, and a few other financial topics. I will try not to repeat the numbers you can see in the presentation, but rather focus on the underlying trends and explanations. Please turn to page two of the presentation. As discussed in our prior investor calls this year, quarterly earnings comparisons are awkward due to the timing of last year's rate case decision. SCE reflected the proposed decision in the third quarter of last year. At the time, SCE recorded most but not all of the expected impacts of that proposed decision. Some of last year's third quarter impacts related to the first half of 2015, so the third quarter comparisons are not perfectly aligned. Comparisons to the prior year are clearer in the year-to-date information. Also, SCE now operates under the tax accounting memorandum account or TAMA approved in the 2015 rate case decision. This has reduced the variability around taxes. As we indicated on the last earnings call, SCE is doing better than our original earnings guidance. This is reflected in the updated guidance I will discuss shortly. Also as expected, holding company costs are higher than our original guidance as we suggested last quarter. We continue to fine-tune the level of cost needed to successfully develop our new competitive businesses without undue drag on consolidated results. With that background, let's look specifically at third quarter results. For SCE, the largest positive impact on revenue is the $0.13 per share benefit related to the timing of the GRC decision. Think of this as the amount that ideally would have been recorded in the first and second quarters of last year if the GRC decision had been in effect all of 2015. The other positive drivers are revenue escalation for growth provided for in the 2015 rate case decision as well as the return on pole loading rate base. You will recall that the pole loading program is handled through a separate balancing account in the current rate case and receives rate base treatment. On the cost side, we are seeing expected favorable earnings contribution from the operational improvement SCE has focused on for some time. Higher depreciation and financing costs reflect normal trends supporting SCE's capital spending program. Income tax expense is higher on higher pre-tax income and lower income tax benefits on property-related items. Overall, SCE earnings increased $0.15 per share or 13% to $1.34 per share. Let's turn to the Edison International holding company, which includes the costs for Edison Energy Group. Comparisons continued to reflect the absence of earnings from the affordable housing portfolio sold at the end of last year. We also see the higher levels of support for developing our new businesses along with the higher interest expense from terming out some of the holding company debt earlier this year. Core losses were $0.05 per share and $0.02 per share higher than last year. The increase in losses are driven equally by the absence of Edison Mission Group earnings and higher Edison Energy Group costs. Underlying holding company costs are generally comparable to last year's third quarter. GAAP comparisons are also impacted by income of $0.13 per share from discontinued operations in the third quarter last year with no impact on core earnings. This was related to updated estimates of tax benefits and insurance proceeds. So net-net, core earnings came in at $1.29 per share, 11% above last year. Please turn to page three. Year-to-date results are a clearer picture of underlying SCE performance as well as the holding company cost trends, which are relevant to our reaffirmed core earnings guidance. The underlying drivers for SCE are similar to those for the quarter other than the release of reserve for uncertain tax positions in the second quarter of 2015 of $0.31 per share. On a year-to-date basis, the timing of the 2015 GRC decision is no longer a significant factor. And the earnings drivers do not include the $0.13 per share timing issue I mentioned earlier. The embedded escalation in revenues in the 2015 GRC decision and the return on pole loading rate base are the two key drivers. FERC revenue increases, mostly to fund higher O&M and capital, continue on a year-to-date basis. The principal cost drivers are generally consistent through the year. As noted earlier, depreciation and financing costs reflect the higher capital associated with SCE's capital spending program as well as the recovery of Coolwater Lugo transmission project cost. Taxes were impacted by last year's change in uncertain tax benefits and the general trend of passing more tax benefits to customers through the tax memorandum account continues. Turning to the EIX holding company, we have increased cost of $0.14 per share excluding non-core items. $0.09 of this variance related to two discrete items. The first component is $0.05 per share related to the absence of the Edison Mission Group portfolio earnings this year. The second component is the second quarter buyout of an earn-out arrangement with former shareholders of a company acquired at the end of last year. This was $0.04 per share. Excluding these discrete items, there was $0.05 per share of higher cost, which breaks down to $0.01 per share at the holding company and $0.04 per share for Edison Energy Group. In absolute terms, total year-to-date core costs are $0.23 per share, which reflects $0.11 per share each at the holding company and Edison Energy Group. There was also $0.01 of cost related to the residual Edison Mission Group assets. I will come back to this topic later when I talk about our updated guidance. Please turn to page four. Today, we have reaffirmed our core earnings guidance at $3.91 per share. Last quarter, we indicated full year results should be in the top half of the guidance range, and we still see an opportunity to do that. We have narrowed the guidance range to plus or minus $0.05 per share consistent with our recent practice. At the midpoint of our guidance, the outlook for SCE is $0.09 per share higher than our original 2016 guidance and the EIX holding company is $0.09 per share less favorable. For SCE, we see the improvement relating largely to higher operational cost savings and financing benefits, which have been more favorable than what we included in our initial guidance last February. The footnote recaps how guidance elements have changed. Also, please note that our guidance for SCE energy efficiency earnings is now $0.04 per share. This is based on updated estimates of benefits included in our September CPUC filing related to energy efficiency. Our updated holding company guidance follows the accounting categories in the 10-Q with a focus on core results. The first category is normal holding company costs plus residual impacts from what remains of Edison Mission Group. Corporate expenses and other costs are still trending at a little more than $0.01 a month per share based on our year-to-date results. This is consistent with what we have suggested for some time. Our full year guidance for holding company cost is $0.15 per share compared to $0.12 recorded year-to-date. The second category reflects Edison Energy Group with full year guidance at a $0.12 per share loss. This is aligned with the $0.02 to $0.03 per share we are seeing in each quarter or $0.07 per share so far this year, excluding the buyout of the earn-out provision. While we develop these businesses, we do expect continued losses early on. Looking at overall holding company costs, including Edison Energy Group, we will be managing our near-term activities such that 2017 costs do not exceed 2016 guidance levels of $0.27 per share, consistent with Pedro's earlier point. When we provide 2017 earnings guidance, we plan to provide refined cost estimates for these businesses that reflect the balance between the value creation opportunity we see in the long term and the earnings impact in the near term. Our guidance continues to exclude any recoveries related to the MHI arbitration. If we do receive any meaningful award, we will account for the recovery of legal and other costs incurred to obtain the award as core earnings. This is consistent with our core treatment of these costs over the last three years. While a portion of an award, depending upon the amount, will be treated as non-core, we did want to provide a view as to the core and non-core split in the event an award is made. Net cost incurred and not recovered from MHI totaled $48 million or $0.09 per share. Please turn to page five. I will touch on a few other key topics. The capital spending and rate base forecasts that we provided in our September 1 GRC presentation are included in the appendix of today's presentation. SCE continually assesses how best to optimize between new capital spending opportunities that may be identified and any changes in the schedules for existing projects or an overall capital spending. SCE continues to seek approval of the memorandum account to cover roughly $200 million of early-stage grid modernization capital spending forecast in 2016 and 2017. If approval is not granted by later this year or early next year, it could push out the timeline for ramping up grid modernization spending under the 2018 GRC. Transmission permitting and regulatory review remains challenging here and for utilities in other parts of the country. The $1.1 billion West of Devers Project was approved by the CPUC in August. But that decision was appealed in September on environmental grounds. The approval decision stands pending appeal. Also, alternative designs have been proposed in the CPUC review of the $600 million Mesa Substation project that would require significant reengineering. SCE and the California ISO continue to recommend the project. These permitting and approval challenges are increasingly typical of transmission planning and part of the process, although, the need for these projects is not affected by the regulatory delays that impact initial timing. Despite these challenges, we continue to see at least $4 billion in annual SCE capital spending and roughly $2 billion of annual rate base growth in 2017 and for the foreseeable future. With almost all of that investment in the wire side of the business, we believe it has lower investment opportunity risk as compared to utilities with a high percentage of growth tied to generation investment. On other financial matters, SCE has a full settlement in place at the current capital structure and cost of capital, including an ROE of 10.45% for 2017. SCE's cost of capital trigger mechanism ended its last measurement period at 4.91%, just below the 5% midpoint. Under our settlement, the operation of the mechanism is suspended at this time. However, utility interest rate trends remain relevant looking ahead to the next cost of capital proceedings in April of next year. The moving average restarted October 1 at the spot rate of 4.26% against what is a likely floor for long-term interest rates in the current rate environment. SCE remains open to another settlement for a further extension. SCE's equity ratio for regulatory purposes remains strong at 50.4% as of September 30. SCE remains comfortable with its 48% equity capital structure and has no plans to recommend any changes in equity ratio to the CPUC. While conservative, it helps provide the flexibility we need to support our dividend growth objectives. I want to touch briefly on financing strategy if only to reaffirm our past statements. For SCE, we plan on funding our capital program with no new equity, relying on long-term debt and preferred stock financing as well as operating cash flow and, perhaps, short-term debt as needed. At the holding company, the principal financing need this quarter was for the last EME bondholder settlement payment of $214 million. EIX retains plenty of financial flexibility and overall financing needs remain modest at this time. Finally, we plan on continuing our normal practice of providing 2017 earnings guidance when we report fourth quarter and full year financial results, tentatively scheduled for February 21 of next year. That concludes our prepared remarks. Christie, please open the line for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. And our first question is from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith of UBS. Your line is open now.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Hi, good afternoon.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hi, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Hey. So, quick question, listen, I understand you can't say too much here. Cost of capital settlement discussions, is that something that, obviously, you'd be open to and, perhaps, can you comment on the debt recovery piece in that? Where do you stand relative to with authorized rates if you can comment on that at all?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Sure, Julien. This is Maria. Clearly, we're open to settlement discussions with our stakeholders. That's probably all I'm going to say about that. And relative to any components of what that might look like, again, don't want to negotiate with anybody on the phone, but we'd certainly be to consider things in terms of a total package.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Got it. Excellent. And then a little bit of a follow-up here on storage. Obviously, there were some developments in the state on a legislative front in the quarter. Can you comment on what that means for you guys?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Sure. Certainly, the 500 – you're talking about the 500 megawatts of additional energy storage. It's still early days. We have to see were that lands for us in terms of how that would be split amongst the three IOUs, et cetera. So, early days to know exactly what it will mean for us. We are proceeding with our other energy storage activities. We have about 40 megawatts or so in the GRC that we recently filed. We're moving forward with the Aliso Canyon Energy Storage. We think it's all part and parcel, but that 500 megawatt's still under review.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
And sorry, to clarify that, to what extent is it or what aspects of it for you guys...
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Oh, no. I mean how it's all going to play out in terms of our spending. Sorry.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Got it. But there is some ability to do it. It's just a matter of like to what extent you will do it and at what point in time?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Yeah. The state will need a process for actually implementing the legislation and allocating out the 500 megawatt sale. The immediate first step here is just going through the regulatory implementation steps.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Got it. All right. Thank you.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thanks, Julien.
Operator:
And our next question is from the line of Michael Weinstein of Credit Suisse. Your line is open now.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Hi, guys.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hi.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Hey, I realize that I think you're planning on bounding – I think you talked about bounding the Edison Energy Group losses at some point probably in the February timeframe when you're going to give 2017 guidance. But I'm wondering if you can give some color around where that bounding might occur and how you're thinking about the business going forward.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Hey, Michael. So, certainly, in terms of the discussion about bounding, we do intend to do that. We've already kind of said during our prepared remarks that we were going to bound that at no more than the 2016 guidance levels for EIX parent and other. As we move through the rest of the year and we're kind of compiling all of our budget information, we'll be able to provide more detail as to exactly how that shakes out at Edison Energy Group.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Okay. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question is from the line of Greg Gordon, Evercore ISI. Your line is open now.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Thanks. Good afternoon.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hi, Greg.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Hey, Greg.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
When we think about how you're trying to work on the glide path for dividend policy, you've been pretty clear and consistent. So when I look out past 2017 and I think about the GRC, the fact that productivity and financing benefits will probably all get wrapped into the next rate case decision, is it right to think about the rate base math for minus the parent overheads and where we think you'll sort of try to target Edison Energy Group drag to come up with sort of a 2019-2020 theoretical earnings growth, earnings numbers in order to set the kind of dividend growth policy that you'll have through that transition?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Hey, Greg. It's kind of early days right now to actually know what's going to happen in the GRC itself. Obviously, our dividends are all keyed off of SCE earnings. As that continues to grow with the rate base growth, you'll see a continuing ability to bring our dividend up in steps over time, as Pedro said earlier. So, I think that's really how we're thinking about it.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Okay. So we should think about it in terms of a payout off of the rate base earnings power of SCE?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Absolutely.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Okay. That's clear. Thank you.
Operator:
Okay. Thank you. And our next question is from Jonathan Arnold of Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Good afternoon, guys.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hey, Jonathan.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Hey.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Hi. Could I just – just want to be extra sure I understand the sounding of the holding company drag. Are you saying that Edison Energy Group and the parent combined in 2017 will not exceed the kind of combined number for 2016 or is it that the EEG piece won't exceed the combined number from 2016?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
No, the former. So the combined number for 2017 not to exceed the combined number for 2016.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. And so, obviously, there will be something for the parent. So what you're going to give us with the guidance is kind of how you get to this number, which is going to be either the same or lower than 2016?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Yes.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Actually, you're echoing a little bit. I think you said that we'll give you more information around the parent then, yes, absolutely.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Yeah. But you're effectively saying the combined number is going to be the same or lower and...
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
That's right.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
...the composition of it you'll give us with the guidance.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
That's right.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay, great. Thank you. And then one other – we noticed recently that the ALJ on the SONGS case was reassigned. Are you guys able to share any intelligence as to what might be going on there? What it might mean for the schedule?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Yeah. So, don't have any insights on the schedule. I think we saw one press report that said the ALJ was leaving or retiring. So, what we've seen is the appointment of – assignment of a new ALJ. And so, we have an ex parte ban, so we don't get into this sort of detail with the Commission. So, we believe that the settlement terms continue to be fair and – but as I mentioned in my comments, we don't have a way to handicap at this point when the Commission will act.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. And then just finally, on the SCE equity ratio, I think you said it's north of 50% as of September. Is that seasonal? Do you see it tracking down as you move through this rate case period or should we imagine it holds around that level? What does the model show?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Look, 50.4% was where we're at September 30. And that number is north of the 48% that's our authorized equity ratio. We will, over time, I'm sure see that bleed down, although, that really does give us the flexibility to manage our capital program, our dividend program, and all of that. So, we actually think that's a good spot to be in.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. And if I could just some one – sort of related topic, you mentioned, I think, West of Devers being appealed and then the Mesa Substation design being called into question. If you see – which year were those projects expected to benefit most and so if they slip to the right, is it a 2017 issue? Is it more a 2018 issue? Can you just give a little more color and then maybe how one might backfill it?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
So those projects – both of those projects are being reviewed by the CPUC. I will say the review is not about whether or not those projects are needed. The review is about exactly how those projects should be built out. And we are still assessing what the impact would be on the schedule and the cost. Certainly, reengineering a project could potentially cause it to be delayed, but there are some suggestions as to different types of projects that could actually increase the cost of those projects. So, we're currently in the process of looking at what the different proposals are and whether or not we need to start engineering around some of those different proposals. Mesa is a very good example that, in that case, other alternatives have been proposed, but in fact the California ISO has said that each one of the alternatives that have been proposed either don't meet the needs or don't meet the time requirement.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Just one global comment on this just to summarize it. This is not a question of if it's just a question of when.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
So, in the current plan, were these 2017 projects primarily or further out?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
No, they actually spread over a pretty long period. I think the in-service dates of the NEE dates, there's a chart in our presentation, but the NEE (35:55) dates are like 2020, 2021 for most of these projects. So you see cost spread over the entire period.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. All right, I'll take a look at that. Thank you very much, guys.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Just to note though, Jonathan, we have not changed any of our forecast at this point, while we wait for those decisions.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Well, is that because you're assuming that you'll find other things to bring forward or some other reason, or just waiting to get the outcome before you make a change? I'm not sure what you're implying?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Two things. Certainly, we do look for ways to redeploy our capital when something is delayed, but secondly also that we will be in the process as we get more information to update our numbers.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thanks, Jonathan.
Operator:
Okay. Thank you. And our next question is from Praful Mehta of Citigroup. Your line is open.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Hi, guys.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Hey.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hey.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Going back to Edison Energy again and wanted to more understand, from a cash cost perspective, given there is a bunch of investment happening there, I'm not sure if the earnings impact that you're talking about reflects what? Is it an O&M expense? Is it depreciation on investment? Just if you can give some color on what the cash cost you expect there and how does that profile kind of look between earnings and cash?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
You know at the end of the last year, we did deploy some capital, some cash to purchase the three companies at Edison Energy. On a go-forward basis, we have a service model. We're focused on providing energy as a service, so the capital needs of those companies from an investment perspective is not gigantic. There are some operating expenses. So, of course, that's why you're seeing the drag at the holding company – in the holding company cost. The numbers themselves are pretty immaterial relative to the overall Edison International structure. So, I think that kind of bounds it for you, I don't know, Pedro... (38:05)
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
No, I think that's captures it. And given the questions that I think we've all gotten from a number of you as we chatted through September, we wanted to make sure we provided some near-term clarity as to what the overall earnings impact was at the total consolidated EIX level. That's why we focused on that today and then we'll have more detail we can provide first in February when we issue 2017 guidance. But I think before – you're also getting to what's the nature of the business itself and what's more of a business model question. And that goes to providing a detailed business plan to our investors, which I mentioned in my comments, we expect to do no later than 12 months from now. So, I think that will clarify our best thinking at that point. And influenced by feedback, we've been getting from customers over the last few months, just thinking in terms of what is that model and what do we see as some of the key milestones and outlays over the years ahead.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Got you. And the bounding is definitely helpful, so definitely appreciate that.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Good. Thanks.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
And on slide five, you mentioned here the $4 billion of capital spend with $2 billion annual rate base increase right into the next decade. Now, as you're growing rate base, clearly, as a percentage of rate base, that growth is dropping off. So, is this a signal to indicate a drop-off in the percentage growth or is it more to say that this is the base case and there is more incremental to that to kind of maintain a 7-percentage growth as well?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Actually, I think that's a message you've heard consistently in several other earnings calls in the past. I think what we said is, we see a continued case supporting for at least $4 billion a year in CapEx. I think we've acknowledged in the past that assuming that that continues, which we see that opportunity, that provides a floor for growth. And to the extent that we're investing at that, call it $4 billion, $4-ish billion level, as the denominator grows the percent increase in the denominator starts tailoring down. That said, you saw in our general rate case application that the request that we provided if we got the total request, which we don't expect we get 100% of that, but we think we provided a very strong case, that rate case for requests would take us over to $5 billion, which would then be a step-up in that rate. So, I guess the final point I'll make here is, again, think about this as a floor, but as we look at the California opportunity, that's a really interesting opportunity over certainly the decade ahead, and as I mentioned in my comments, we're still – not just we as SCE, but we the state are still trying to get our arms around what SB 32 will really mean, All right? What is the nature of that opportunity when you have to reduce greenhouse gases by more than 40% from where we are today? That's going to require a fair amount of infrastructure. Early to say how much that might be new infrastructure that translates into rate base, how much of that would be infrastructure that's done on the customer side or by other entities. It will certainly imply a good opportunity in terms of the usage of the grid. But I think, net-net, when you look at SB 32, when you look at some of the other upsides around items like the storage item that Julien asked about earlier, we do see continued support for investing at, at least that floor $4 billion and to the extent that we're only investing at that floor then, yes, you'd see the ratio ease off over time. Does that make sense?
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Yes, it does. I really appreciate it. Thank you.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
You bet. Thank you.
Operator:
And our next question is from the line of Michael Lapides of Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hey, Michael.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Hey, guys. A couple of questions; I'll start on the non-utility or non-regulated side of the business. Have you communicated, or is this what's coming a year from now, what your anticipated goal is in terms of when you expect this investment to generate earnings power for the company or when you expect this investment to generate positive not negative free cash for the company?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
I think that will be part of the detail that we aim to provide in a business plan, Michael.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
So, the item no later than 12 months from now.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
And have you discussed or disclosed the amount of capital you deployed in this business? I would assume it's available in the 10-Q, which hit 30 or 40 minutes ago, but just kind of what's your plan for capital spending. Is it large enough to have shown up in your CapEx tables yet?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
So, you can see that disclosed the parent section of the cash flows. But, really, the bulk of what we spent is that $100 million last year to buy the three companies that are basically Edison Energy.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. And then coming back to SCE, there is the potential at some point in the coming months or so that you'll give results in the Mitsubishi arbitration, and half of those proceeds would come to the utility and the other half would go to customers. How do you think about how you would utilize those proceeds, the proceeds that come back to the utility?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
And I think, actually, Pedro might have mentioned this in his comments...
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Right.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
...is that we would really retain out of the utility an offset to the extent that we were using short-term debt to really fund the capital program that we see, which is, as you know from the GRC, pretty substantial.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Right. But you've already got a pretty healthy equity layer at the utility and you've got some runway in I assume the Mitsubishi cash. If there is any cash, isn't going to just come overnight. It may take a little while for it to come in, so in that timeframe, the equity layer continues to grow. I'm just curious about are you commenting on the short-term debt side that you're worried your short-term balance is getting a little too healthy or too thick, or is there just less balance sheet capacity than maybe I'm thinking about?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
I don't think our short-term debt is getting too thick. You can see from our financial statements, we're in a pretty comfortable spot. But, over time, I think it's just a nice place to be to have that capacity. If we were to get an award, we don't know that we're going to get an award, but if we were to get an award and of any substantial size, I think we'll provide another layer of certainty or cushion as we build out our capital program.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. And then last thing just related to that, if you get an award, is that taxable?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Yes.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
So, whatever the number is that comes back to SCE, what you're really getting is 60%, 65% of that level?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Yeah, whatever the...
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Tax rate is.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
...final tax rate would be. Yes.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay, got it. Thank you, guys. Much appreciate it.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thanks, Michael.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question is from the line of Ali Agha of SunTrust. Your line is open.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
Thank you.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hey, Ali.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
Hey, Pedro. First question, Pedro, you've been obviously implementing the SONGS settlement as per the terms of the settlement for a while now. And so, from a practical point of view, if the Commission decided to reopen it, can we sort of put that genie back in the bottle, given how far down the road we've already come? How does that work conceptually if this thing were reviewed?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
So, you're talking about the genie in the bottle. We've talked about it'd be tough to unscramble the egg or put the toothpaste back in the tube. So, I think that would be one of the challenges were the Commission to decide to reopen the settlement. And of course, if they did that, we believe strongly in the litigation positions that we had and we would reassert those. But, no, you're pointing out one of the implementation challenges, if the Commission were to reopen it, would be very tough to do. And as I mentioned in my comment, we've refunded or are on the way to refunding a total $1.6 billion, so a big amount at stake here benefiting customers.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
Yeah. Second question. When you're benchmarking your cost versus your relevant peer group where do you see yourself standing? Which quartile right now? And really the thrust being that for the last couple of rate case cycles, in particular, you've been able to benefit from the non-rate case years by coming in with better cost and keeping that upside. How much more is left in that process when you benchmark yourselves and see where you stand today?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
So I want stay pretty high level on this one. I'd say we're probably in the middle of the pack. Some areas a little better, some areas a little worse. We've pointed investors to our rate case filing and the pieces that we had some level of confidence on, when we were filing our rate case, of course, we put in the rate case as an obligation for customers. We said that we'll continue to work at this. We have not quantified for investors what that additional opportunity is or the timing for it, probably because we're continuously doing that work, Ali, and that's a work in progress. The other comment I make there is, beyond just looking at what it means for SCE today to benchmark itself against the folks who are in the quartile already or even best-in-class that versus where I think the whole industry and, frankly, the whole economy is set at, certainly, over the decade ahead for us here, technology is going to be opening up some pretty powerful opportunities to reshape how a lot of American work is done. And I think even the folks who are best-in-class in our industry or in other industries are going to see continued opportunities for improvement, whether it's back office technologies or artificial intelligence or the impact of other hardware and software in various parts of our business, I just see that as a continuing opportunity for all of us in the industry and across the economy. And so, I don't think we're at the point yet where we stop. So, expect there could be a continuing theme for us, but we haven't quantified what that could mean yet.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
Understood. Pedro, One last question, I'm sorry, if I could. You may have different valuation benchmarks on how you're looking at the Edison Energy businesses, obviously, different businesses. But, as you know, your stock trades on a PE multiple, so earnings matter. So, in that context, how sensitive is it for you to at least get those businesses to break-even on earnings, so you're not getting penalized as I believe you are by those losses flowing through your earnings statements?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thanks for the question, Ali, and I'll kick it off and Maria might have other thoughts. You're right. I think that EIX does trade largely on SCE earnings. That is the core of the business. And today, the Edison Energy Group activities are non-material relative to the broad EIX story. We are excited about the opportunity. As I mentioned earlier, we are sensitive. Recognize that investors look at earnings in PE and as we develop that business plan that we'll share over the next 12 months, our goal is to make that as transparent as possible because we recognize that we have a responsibility here to explain that business case to investors and make it one that you all can get your arms around. In the specific case of Edison Energy, this is getting a little ahead of our skis this year. But just to provide a little bit of color, we view that as an energy as a service kind of business. The business that we have today, basically, have a number of customers, contracts that can span from one to several years. We'd expect that to be a book of business that we could describe to our investors and provide metrics around the texture of that portfolio – the tenure of it – what contract volumes or what years, measures of backlog, et cetera. But at the end of the day, we would hope and would expect would provide some good level of confidence around continuing cash flow strength, continuing earnings strength. So, I just described something at pretty high level here. Expect us to put more pen to paper as we develop the business plan and share it with you. But we're thinking about that in that way and, frankly, in large part because of the good feedback we've gotten from a number of you about how to reconcile new businesses with the core story and how the core story is valued at EIX and at SCE. Maria, anything to add, or?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
No, I don't think so. I think you captured it.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
Thank you.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thanks, Ali.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question is from the line of Anthony Crowdell of Jefferies. Your line is open.
Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC:
Good afternoon. First, Pedro and Maria, huge improvement over the last couple of calls. Just...
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
We're not going to touch that.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
We can hear Scilacci's voice breaking in.
Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC:
If I could just touch on, I think, one of the earlier questions from Jonathan about the equity ratio, I understand you like the flexibility. You talk about dividend growth and everything else. But when you go from a 48% to 50% equity ratio on the rate base that you guys have, it's a significant driver of earnings. And if the Commission is able to give you that flexibility, why not look to setting it at 50% and still enjoy that flexibility? Because right now, it looks like you're losing $0.18 to $0.20 of earnings.
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
So, thanks for the question. And we are comfortable at the place we are right now, 48% authorized. Yes, we're a little higher than that at the current moment. But that will work down over time as we continue to expand our capital program. I think that flexibility is really important. We're trying to balance a lot of things in the context of, we want to be able to deploy the capital that we need to get the grid modernized, to focus on safety and reliability, all the things that our customers need, and then also balance that against customer rates as well. So, we're doing a lot of things. The 48% level authorized equity rate actually does fit in with the overall objectives that we're trying to achieve. And we think that it provides us with the right amount of flexibility over time.
Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC:
Could you use the parent company to also provide flexibility or you're just really looking at flexibility at the utility? I'm thinking maybe the parent could provide some additional equity to the utility if you had a huge capital program?
Maria C. Rigatti - Edison International:
Certainly, EIX has some balance sheet flexibility. I think we'd have to think about that over time in terms of where would be the most appropriate place to provide that sort of backing.
Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC:
Great. Thanks for taking my question.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question is from the line of Travis Miller of Morningstar. Your line is open.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Good afternoon. Thank you.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hi, there.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
I was wondering, obviously, all these initiatives going on in California, smart grid and all the other stuff, storage, transmission, even those delays there, how much is the timing of the GRC decision dependent on any of those things happening along their various timelines?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Do you mean from a process and staff workload perspective or...?
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
In terms of your investment proposal and the Commission's various needs to approve various types of initiatives?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
I think that the answer is, for the most part, we look at these as fairly separate tracks. We might have a – there's just a number of – or a portion of our revenue requirement and our programs, a large portion that flows through the general rate case. There are individual special purpose programs like Charge Ready, which is going through a separate track. And so, those are fairly independent. Perhaps, the one point of more interaction that's still being defined is around the whole topic of grid modernization. I think it's fair to say that in the beginning when the Commission first set up the distribution resource plan proceeding or DRP, that was intended to provide policy-level guidance that would then feed into the requests of each utility in their general rate cases. We do have a unique situation with SCE's rate case in that, just the timing of our rate case is such that we have to file a request before we have a final decision in the DRP proceeding. The Commission has recognized that and so some interaction there, but in the meantime, we are very focused on providing the testimony and high quality testimony in the GRC proceeding. And again, we're encouraged by the comments that President Picker made about wanting to stay on the overall timelines. Looking at Kevin Payne and Ron Nichols in case you have anything to add there or if I covered that?
Ronald Owen Nichols - Southern California Edison Co.:
I would add that – this is Ron Nichols. I would add that the Commission in their DRP proceeding just gave guidance here recently that in Q2 of 2017 that they expect to provide some more guidance on grid modernization investment levels. So, we're expecting that will give us a better clue, we hope reinforcement with regard to where we're headed. But that at least identifies the fact we've asked for memorandum account for this and they're now finally coming out with some timeline for some guidance.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Okay, very helpful. Thank you.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question is from the line of Lason Jong of Avila Research Consulting (57:47). Your line is open.
Unknown Speaker:
Thank you. Good afternoon.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hi, Lason (57:54).
Unknown Speaker:
Hi. I was just running through your numbers on the greenhouse gas emissions. And I've come to a very interesting conclusion, which is that the opportunity for investments in the electric grid infrastructure around electric vehicles is stunningly high. Meaning 40% greenhouse gas emissions from power plants have to get cut in half by law, so that 10% of the 40%, let's assume industrials contribute another 10% out of the 40% and commercial customers contribute 5%, maybe 10% max. That means 15% of that 40% has to come from the transportation area. And rough numbers suggest that 10 million cars being taken off the road, which means several things. One; a massive increase in power generation, most likely on the renewable side. And two; massive transmission and distribution line expansion and massive infrastructure investment in electrical vehicle charging stations. Am I in the ballpark?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
So, I think you just defined one potential scenario, but I think there are many. And the reality is that the state is just starting to get its arms around how this all really will shake out. And I'll tell you, some of the interesting questions here are, how much of this will be done by the state going through the kind of analysis that you just went through there. And in allocating that out on a sector by sector basis, how much of it will be done by relying on more market forces and seeing how the markets bring out the best opportunities. So, I'll probably stop short of commenting on your specific scenario there. But, really, come back to the basic message, which is no matter which way we cut it – and we're doing our own homework on this right now with our various state agencies. But no matter which way we cut it, we see electrification of a lot of the economy being absolutely needed. Now, whether it's you're quick math there in terms of the impact on transportation, some of the factors or whether it's different math, different proportions coming from different sectors. Even within transportation, how much comes from passenger light duty vehicles, how much comes from heavier duty. I think there's lots of questions that the state needs to grapple with. But, again, any which you cut it, it will require a fair amount of electrification. And therefore, really cement the absolute necessity of having a strong and modern grid at the center of it all to move that power around. So that's the focus and I think we will all be learning a lot over the course of the next few years here as we march our way to the state being able to meet the expectation of the law 14 years from now.
Unknown Speaker:
When do you think the state is going to have some sort of an implementation plan to be able to get to the numbers by 2030?
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Hope its sooner rather than later, but I don't think that we've seen any specific dates come out of some of the key agencies here. Ron Nichols, anything you'd add there?
Ronald Owen Nichols - Southern California Edison Co.:
I think there is one thing I would point to at least that the Public Utilities Commission has come up with a request back middle of September, came out with a ruling to have all three of the investors on utilities make a filing January 20 of 2017 on our ideas with regard to what could be done both in programs and investments to accelerate transportation electrification. That's only one piece admittedly. But there is – at least there is, from that end, a push towards doing that. And they've asked us to be pretty out of the box thinking with regard to this and that will create opportunities potentially for investment. And whether we make the investment or other parties make that investment, greater increase in use of our grid and benefit of spreading those costs over a higher amount of kilowatt hour sales. As to the larger scale, the California Resources Board is still working on a longer-term plan that includes all the other sectors, but they don't have a hard timing on that yet.
Pedro J. Pizarro - Edison International:
Lot of work to be done in the state.
Operator:
Okay. That was the last question. I will now turn the call back to Mr. Scott Cunningham.
Scott S. Cunningham - Edison International:
Thanks, Christie. And thanks, everyone, for participating and don't hesitate to give us a call if you have any questions and we'll look forward to seeing many of you at the EI Financial Conference next week. Good evening.
Operator:
And that concludes today's conference. Thank you all for participating. You may all disconnect.
Executives:
Scott Cunningham – Vice President-Investor Relations Ted Craver – Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Jim Scilacci – Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Adam Umanoff – General Counsel Ron Nichols – President-Southern California Pedro Pizarro – President Ron Litzinger – President-Edison Energy Group
Analysts:
Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS Steve Fleishman – Wolfe Research Ali Agha – SunTrust Brian Chin – Bank of America Shar Pourreza – Guggenheim Partners Michael Lapides – Goldman Sachs Anthony Crowdell – Jefferies Praful Mehta – Citigroup Michael Weinstein – Credit Suisse Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates
Operator:
Good afternoon, and welcome to the Edison International Second Quarter 2016 financial teleconference. My name is Tony and I’ll be operator for today. [Operator Instructions] Today’s call is being recorded. I would now turn the call over to Mr. Scott Cunningham, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Cunningham, you may begin your conference.
Scott Cunningham:
Thanks, Tony. Welcome, everyone. Our principal speakers today will be Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Ted Craver and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Jim Scilacci. Also here are other members of the management team. Materials supporting today’s call are available at www.edisoninvestor.com. These include our form 10-Q, Ted’s and Jim’s prepared remarks and the presentation that accompanies Jim’s comments. Tomorrow afternoon, we will distribute our regular business update presentation During this call, we will make forward-looking statements about the future outlook for Edison International and its subsidiaries. Actual results could differ materially from current expectations. Important factors that could cause different results are set forth in our SEC filings. Please read these carefully. The presentation includes certain outlook assumptions as well as reconciliation of GAAP and non-GAAP measures. During Q&A, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. We will be finishing our Q&A just a few minutes early today for some final comments. With that, I will turn the call over to Ted.
Ted Craver:
Think you, Scott, and good afternoon, everyone. Second-quarter results were below last year’s results as we expected. You will recall that we told investors in our first-quarter earnings call that quarterly year-over-year comparisons would not be all that meaningful. This is primarily due to timing mismatches including impacts from the delayed decision on SCE’s 2015 to 2017 rate case, the significant SCE tax benefits recorded last year but not repeated this year, no Edison capital asset sales this year versus last year and the timing of Edison energy costs versus revenues. The larger point that I want to leave with you is that core earnings are on track for the full-year. That is why, today, we reaffirmed our full-year core earnings guidance range of $3.81 to $4.01 earnings per share. In fact, based on second-quarter results, although there are various puts and takes amongst the businesses, our current outlook indicates that consolidated results for the full-year are in the top half of our guidance range. However, consistent with what we have done in several of the past years, we will hold off until our third quarter results are in to decide if we should adjust our core earnings guidance. We are in the final half of our 2015 to 2017 CPUC rate case period. We have communicated to investors that based on CPUC approved capital spending and expected spending on FERC jurisdictional transmission projects, we expect rate-based growth – rate base to grow approximately 7% in the 2016 to 2017 period. This still seems appropriate. We have communicated several times in the past that there is relatively little variance expected in the timing of CPUC jurisdictional spending for the 2016 to 2017 period, but more variability is possible in the timing, but less likely in the ultimate amount of our FERC jurisdictional transmission spending. Remember, SCE’s transmission investment is to improve system reliability and bring online utility scale wind and solar resources to meet California’s aggressive renewable energy targets. Most of the transmission CapEx spending variability occurs due to delays in routing decisions and permitting approvals at the state and federal levels. A recent example was the $1.1 billion West of Devers project which has been something of a moving target with CPUC staff, even with CAISO support, but appears ready for final CPUC approval with a supportive alternate proposed decision pending. We see schedule challenges of this sort for other lesser transmission projects as well. Net-net, we don’t expect meaningful impacts to our total transmission spend expectations over the medium term three to five-year period but likely some shifting between the years. Said differently, our current view is that 2016 rate base will not, materially different than forecasted. 2017 could be slightly lower but recovered in the 2018 to 2020 period. On the last earnings call, most of my comments were devoted to outlining the future SCE growth opportunity. I would like to provide some additional comments today keeping in mind that we will be able to elaborate more on this when SCE makes its General Rate Case filing on September 1. In the broadest sense, the capital spending request in our 2018 to 2020 General Rate Case is designed to help California achieve its low carbon policy objectives and to enable customer choice while continuing to focus on reliable and affordable service for all customers. Keeping it simple, the requested investment can be lumped into two buckets. The first bucket is comprised of grid investments we have traditionally requested in past rate cases. The second bucket is made up of new grid modernization investments. Let me expand further on these two areas. The traditional investments we will propose in the first bucket represent the vast majority of our total rate case capital spending request. The areas of spending encompass five basic elements
Jim Scilacci:
Thanks, Ted. Hello everyone. My comments today will cover second quarter and year-to-date results, earnings guidance and our updated capital expenditures and rate base forecasts. Please turn to page 2 of the presentation. As a brief reminder, comparisons to 2015 will not be meaningful primarily because of the timing of the 2015 GRC decision and the impact of taxes. I also explained last quarter how we removed in the variance analysis the impact of repair deductions, pole loading, and San Onofre tax items because these revenue items have offsets within the income statement. EIX’s basic and core earnings per share are $0.85 for the second quarter or $0.31 per share less than the same quarter last year. SCE’s second-quarter basic and core earnings are $0.21 per share lower and EIX parent other are $0.10 per share lower. The lower earnings are primarily due to $0.31 per share of income tax benefits recorded in the second quarter of last year. Focusing on the SCE key EPS drivers column, the utilities revenue is $0.10 per share higher quarter-over-quarter. This increase includes $0.09 per share from the GRC attrition mechanism which automatically adjusts authorized revenue following the 2015 test year. This is largely offset by a $0.06 per share timing issue with the 2015 GRC decision. As I discussed last quarter, authorized revenue reductions from the 2015 GRC decision are not reflected in results for the first or second quarter of this year. You will see this reverse in the third and fourth quarters of this year. The results are a $0.03 per share positive variance from the pole loading balancing account. This balancing account was created with a final 2015 GRC decision, so the $0.08 of pole loading earnings we had last year was all recorded in the fourth quarter. FERC revenues are $0.03 per share higher. This is largely related to revenues associated with the higher operating costs and abandoned plant recoveries for the canceled Coolwater Lugo transmission project. The recovery of Coolwater Lugo costs will continue through 2016 and has no impact on earnings. Together, these revenue items net to a positive $0.10 per share. O&M was not a major driver in the second quarter as lower legal and labor costs due to workforce reductions are mostly offset by a planned outage and upgrades at the Mountain View generation plant and higher pole loading costs. Results included $0.02 per share of severance costs comparable to what was recorded last year. $0.03 of the $0.04 of higher depreciation are amortization of the Coolwater Lugo costs discussed above. Net financing costs are $0.02 per share higher due primarily to an increase in the amount of preferred stock outstanding. The CPUC and FERC ratemaking mechanisms include funding for new debt and preferred stock to finance rate base growth. As indicated above, there was a $0.31 per share benefit from a change in an uncertain tax positions in 2015. There is no comparable change in the second quarter of this year. Partially offsetting this item is a $0.04 per share benefit this year from tax depreciation and balancing accounts bringing the net impact from income taxes to a negative $0.27. The second quarter effective tax rate for SCE is a negative 9% due primarily to a $133 million flow-through tax refund to customers for repair benefits from 2012 through 2014. The refund of tax repair benefits has no earnings impact. Higher insurance benefits primarily drive the $0.02 per share contribution from other income and expenses. This gets us to the $0.21 per share decline in the second quarter SCE earnings. I will turn next to EIX parent and other. Losses increased by $0.10 per share, overall, from last quarter of last year. A key driver is a $0.04 per share buyout of an earnout provision with former shareholders and current employees of a company acquired by Edison Energy at the end of 2015. The buyout was completed, along with modification of employment contracts, to align Edison Energy’s incentive compensation with EIX’s. There is also a penny per share of higher business development and operating costs. Comparisons are also affected by a $0.03 per share gain on the sale of a portion of Edison Capital’s affordable housing portfolio during the second quarter of last year. Parent holding company costs increased by $0.02 per share due to higher interest expense as we termed out $400 million of holding company commercial paper debt and the impact of strong stock price performance on compensation expense. Core earnings exclude a penny per share of tax related losses in discontinued operations related to the Edison Mission Energy, getting to the net $0.10 per share of holding company losses. That, with the SCE variance, gets you to the $0.31 per share reduction in EIX earnings. Please turn to Page 3. I won’t go into detail on the year-to-date results other than to remind everyone that SCE’s performance for the first half of 2016 is consistent with our full-year SCE Outlook which looks stronger than our original guidance levels. At the same time, holding company costs are already at full-year guidance levels or $0.18 per share. We have built both factors into our reaffirmed full-year guidance. Please turn to Page 4. On the top of the slide, it shows our reaffirmed GAAP and quarter earnings guidance. However, our internal SCE earnings outlook will be above its $4.09 per share guidance midpoint and holding company costs outlook will be higher than its guidance midpoint. We are comfortable reaffirming overall EIX earnings guidance for the full-year based on this internal view. However, we have not updated our SCE and holding company guidance elements other than to indicate their directional trends. We are mindful that the third quarter is typically SCE’s strongest of the year, and we will continue our practice of looking to update guidance when we report third-quarter results on November 1. As I previously mentioned, holding company year-to-date costs, including Edison Energy Group, are at a full-year guidance level of $0.18, adjusting for an earnout agreement which was not part of the original guidance with lower year-to-date costs to $0.14. The important thing is that we do anticipate an increase in revenue during the second half of 2016 based on booked deals and expected sales. I also want to point out that our guidance does not include any recoveries from the MHI arbitration. As a reminder, we are expensing all costs related to the arbitration as incurred through core earnings. For 2016 alone, we incurred $23 million of costs and a total of $76 million including prior periods. As part of the SONGS settlement, we can recover our reasonable arbitration costs from MHI recoveries before sharing. I will next touch on SCEs balance sheet strength. On June 30, SCEs weighted average common equity ratio was 50.3% versus the authorized level of 48%. This helps provide financial flexibility as the utility continues to fund growth with operating cash flow and retain earnings and without the need of new common equity. Please turn to Page 5. SCE has updated its capital spending forecast. We expect that 2016 will be lower by $300 million and 2017 will be $100 million higher. The biggest factor change, forecast change, is $375 million of transmission spending, mostly due to licensing delays of projects like Albert Hill, Mason, and the city of Riverside projects. As Ted has highlighted, we firmly believe these projects will ultimately move forward and the balance of their capital spending will be shifted into our 2018 through 2020 period. We have also adjusted the utilities CPUC capital expenditures to more closely align with what the commission has authorized for the three-year General Rate Case cycle. The net result of these changes is a reduction of approximately $200 million. Please turn to Page 6. You will see that rate base has a directionally similar adjustment with a 2017 rate base forecasted to be lower by $200 million. Because of the transmission delays, the reduction in rate base will be shifted into the 2018 through 2020 period. As I mentioned earlier, we don’t see this having any impact on 2016 earnings as the modest rate base reduction is more than offset in other areas based on SCEs current outlook. I would like to add a short addendum to my prepared remarks. This earnings call is my 32nd and last as CFO of EIX. It has been a great eight-year run. There is a lot of work that goes into each one of these calls, and I would like to recognize our Edison team that makes these calls happen. Personally, I think our disclosures and investor materials are among the best. This job falls to our lawyers, accountants, corporate communications folks and IR staff. In particular, our attorneys, Adam, Russ, Barbara, Kathleen do a great job of converting accounting English into plain English. Our accountants Erin, Connie, Mark and Tricia make sure our books and SEC filings are in top shape. Our IR staff, Scott and Allie, do a fantastic job. As many of you know, Scott is a highly regarded IR professional and Ali has done a great job since joining us a year ago. I have always enjoyed the interaction with investors and analysts over the years. Hopefully, you have earned our respect by the way we conduct our communications. Early on, Ted advised me when communicating with investors and analysts, I should strive to keep my comments down the middle of the fairway. Ted said if I pushed my comments left or right of center, you folks will sniff it out and our credibility will be called into question. I have tried to follow this solid advice and I hope Pedro and Maria do the same. As you know, Ted and I are heading out on September 30. I don’t have any plans for retirement, yet, but there are many things I want to do. The one thing I would really like to do, though is finally learn how to drive my golf balls down the middle of the fairway. Thank you, all. Operator, it’s question time.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question would come from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from UBS. Your line is now open.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Good afternoon and once more, congratulations to both of you.
Ted Craver:
Okay. Thanks, Julian.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Absolutely, here is a question. Let’s see if you can respond to it. MHI filed updated notice as far as the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Can you provide a little more color on why that was and what that says with respect to the arbitration case?
Scott Cunningham:
We are going to toss that one out to Adam Umanoff, our General Counsel.
Adam Umanoff:
Hi, Julian, thanks for the question. I really can’t give you much additional detail. As MHI did last year, they felt an obligation under the Tokyo Stock Exchange rules to make a comment with respect to their view of their exposure under the arbitration. We can’t comment or confirm anything they’ve said in that filing. We are operating under a confidentiality order in the International Chamber of Commerce litigation that really precludes us from making any substantive comment. Sorry I can’t give you any more information.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
No worries. I thought I’d have to ask. And separately, related, feel compelled, I suppose it is somewhat awkward given the timing. Can you opine a little bit on the desirability of the utility and the utility jurisdictions outside of California. To what extent is there, given the media headlines, a desire to expand? Or deviate from the Edison Energy strategy you guys have previously articulated as being the go-forward plan outside of SCE?
Ted Craver:
Julian, this is Ted. I will wade into that nice easy question. I think we’ve been fairly open with investors over the years about our prospects, and in a weird way, the most difficult element is we have tremendous growth prospects here at Southern California, Edison. Our organic growth and the expected CAGRs from rate base and ultimately earnings really make looking at other utilities outside of our territory as more often than not, looking dilutive either to the underlying strategic approach that we have which is, as you know, a wires based focus or a delivery of electricity focus rather than a heavy involvement in some of the other parts of the business, or dilutive from and earnings growth perspective. As a result of that, we have continued to focus primarily on where we see the best opportunities and those are really our organic growth opportunities. I ought to keep it at the 100,000 foot level. I certainly don’t want to engage in speculation on any specific thing.
Scott Cunningham:
Julien, did we hit your question?
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Yes. I think that is fair. Thank you, very much, both.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question would come from Steve Fleishman from Wolfe Research. Your line is now open.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. Thank you, a couple quick questions. Just, first, the MHI spending in terms of legal spending you’ve made, is that at SCE or is that at the parent?
Jim Scilacci:
It is at the utility, Steve.
Steve Fleishman:
At the utility? Okay. And one question on the parent, if you excluded the kind of one time payment that you made to the employees of the company you bought, would you be roughly on track for the year without that one-time payment?
Jim Scilacci:
It would be a little higher than that.
Steve Fleishman:
Higher being higher losses or lower?
Jim Scilacci:
Yes, the losses are a little bit higher.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay.
Jim Scilacci:
After adjusting for the buyout of the earnout.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay, good. And then just one other question on SONGS. Are we just basically waiting for the assigned commissioner to tell us next steps at this point?
Jim Scilacci:
So everything has been filed that was required to be. Adam, I will throw back out if there is anything more that’s yet to be done.
Adam Umanoff:
Jim, you’re exactly right. Steve, briefs were filed in July. The ball is in the court of the assigned commissioner in the ALJ to decide what to do next.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay, great. Jim, you sounded like you were winning an Academy award there, best of luck to you. I’m sure I will see you, but you’re making me feel old. Best of luck.
Jim Scilacci:
All right, thanks Steve.
Ted Craver:
It’s making us feel old too Steve.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question would come from Ali Agha, from SunTrust. You may go ahead sir.
Ali Agha:
Thank you. Good afternoon.
Jim Scilacci:
Hi, Ali.
Ali Agha:
Jim, all the best to all of you, as well.
Jim Scilacci:
Thanks.
Ali Agha:
First question, just to be clear, just clarifying the points you were making on parent. So, if we look at that, it is running at around $0.07 negative per quarter. Obviously, higher than what you had originally thought. And I’m excluding that one-time payment. Is that a good run rate to think about going forward?
Jim Scilacci:
So what I think I’m indicating is that we had more expenses in the first half of the year and you pulled out, we said it was $0.18 in total for the first half minus the $0.04 for the essentially the one-time item that gets you to $0.14. I am suggesting, I think I was trying to get to it in Steve’s comment and question that we’re going to have more revenues in the second half of the year. It’s going – I have indicated it’s going to be slightly above the $0.18 for the full-year, but it’s not going to be that much above.
Ali Agha:
Okay. And then to get to the higher end of the range for the year, given that the parent drag will be higher, again would imply that you are going to be earning above your authorized ROE for this final year in this GRC. How much capacity do you have to further cut back on costs so you can continue to do that in the three-year cycle of the GRC program? Which innings are we as far as the cost reduction cycle is concerned?
Jim Scilacci:
It’s an ongoing process. I think when we started this four years ago there was a lot to be done. If you just looked at our headcount there has been a lot of reductions over the last four years compliments to Ron Litzinger and the effort he started and continue with Pedro. And there’s more to be done. What we keep finding when we do these benchmarking studies, those in the first quartile keep getting more competitive. They continue to reduce their costs. So, the job for us is there even greater to keep up with them and then the close in the ranks, because our goal here is to get to first quartile. So there’s more to be done, and we have indicated it in our guidance for this year and we’ve indicated there will be some earnings from cost reductions next year, too. Of course, we pass that back as part of the 2018 GRC, and then we start it fresh looking for cost reductions.
Ali Agha:
One last one. Ted, I just wanted to clarify from your prepared remarks, when you talked about the SONGS situation and where all the parties were coming from. Can one infer from that that the outcomes would be either that they agree that nothing needs to happen or there is an additional fine perhaps imposed on you as TURN and ORA want? Are those the two realistic scenarios given where all these parties are with their re-filings?
Jim Scilacci:
So we are not going to speculate on what the outcomes might be. We think the settlement is reasonable based on all of the filings that we’ve made. Adam, anything else to add on that?
Adam Umanoff:
No. Thanks, Jim. You are exactly right. It really is difficult for us to speculate on what the CPUC might do.
Ali Agha:
Got it, thank you.
Jim Scilacci:
Thank you, Ali.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next would come from Brian Chin from Bank of America.
Brian Chin:
Hi, good afternoon. On the MHI, can we just get a sense of what the calendar of next events looks like?
Adam Umanoff:
Brian, it’s Adam Umanoff. Again, we are operating under a confidentiality agreement. What we can tell you is that the hearing ended at the end of April of this year, and we are expecting a decision as soon as the end of the year although it could be later. Other than that I can’t give you any specifics about the process or the substance.
Brian Chin:
Okay. And then just to be clear, going back to Slide 6, you indicated that you will provide a forecast through 2020 after the next GRC application is filed on September 1. So we should expect that these rate-based numbers might be adjusted to some extent in the next, on the third quarter call or perhaps EEI? Is that the right way to think about this for 2018 and beyond or is there any other adjustments that might be made?
Jim Scilacci:
So what will happen on September 1, we will file our application with the Public Utilities Commission. In concurrent with that, Brian, we will put out an 8K providing additional information. We will probably pick up the capital expenditure forecast and the SCE rate base forecast, and it will cover the periods 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020. So you have the full view in terms of, and 2015, obviously, was authorized. It’s just a base to start from. So you will have the full five-year forecast, and we will probably provide some additional detail in terms of some of the major components and the potential impact on bonus depreciation. So we are still developing that, but the current plan is to provide it concurrently with the GRC.
Brian Chin:
That is great. Thank you, very much.
Jim Scilacci:
Okay, Brian.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question would come from Shar Pourreza from Guggenheim Partners. Your line is now open
Shar Pourreza:
Hey, everyone.
Jim Scilacci:
Hi Shar.
Shar Pourreza:
Just on a shifting of the transmission spend, can you just confirm that this licensing delay is really sort of like that, it’s administrative and not a function of something like renewables having a counterattack where it pushes off in the weeds the near term?
Jim Scilacci:
Yes, it has nothing to do with renewables. It has everything to do with the process of getting approvals through the regulatory processes we have to jump through. And this is all in the public domain. It is hard to track every single one of these projects that are working their way through. But we are working through it, and as Ted said and I said, we firmly believe that these projects are going to get built. It is just hard pinning down the exact time frame given the regulatory hoops we jump through.
Shar Pourreza:
Got it, got it. Lastly, on the upcoming GRC, I know we’ll get an update, but can you confirm sot of the top end of the DRP portion is around $2 billion to $2.5 billion from the 2018, 2020 timeframe. And then maybe some leverage that we can think about that can mitigate the retail rate impact assuming you’re still kind of thinking it’s going to be inflationary at best?
Jim Scilacci:
So the best thing we can guide you to is, if you go to the business update, there is a document in there that’s the DRP capital expenditures estimates. There is an 2018 through 2020 period expenditures. What Ted’s comments were, we will roughly, there will be some changes, obviously, but the magnitude will generally be in the dollars that you are seeing in this chart on Page 18 of the investor update.
Ted Craver:
Like $1.4 billion or $2.7 billion roughly, $2.6 billion.
Shar Pourreza:
Okay, great. Jim and Ted, congrats on the stage two of your career and I am going to miss the steak dinners.
Jim Scilacci:
Okay.
Ted Craver:
You can buy as a steak dinner anytime.
Jim Scilacci:
All right no problem.
Shar Pourreza:
Thanks guys.
Ted Craver:
Okay, sure.
Operator:
Our next question would come from Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.
Michael Lapides:
Hey, guys. I just wanted to ask a little bit of a question kind of thinking about long-term capital spending levels. I mean, Ted, in your prepared remarks, are you implying that you think the capital spending levels will remain in the low $4 billion a year range, or do you think it’s when you make your 2018 rate case filing and get into the DRP filing and docket that we are talking about something that is materially different from that level?
Ted Craver:
Yes, I will maybe use some slightly different words but capture the same themes. What I was really trying to do in the prepared remarks is keeping this thing simple. You should expect in our 2018 General Rate Case to see expenses kind of in two very broad buckets. One bucket is what I will call pretty much the traditional meat and potato type investment request that we make every General Rate Case. That covers kind of standard stuff, infrastructure replacement, expected demand increases on certain of our circuits, new connections, so on and so forth. When you take that chunk, together with the things that aren’t in the GRC, such as the Charge Ready program and FERC jurisdictional transmission spend, you should expect to see a number, generally in the neighborhood, maybe a little bit higher than what we have traditionally kind of talked about. I will just call that broadly the $4 billion plus type of base number. Then, there is a second, smaller bucket that you will see in the 2018 General Rate Case request which will really be the first attempt to try to put some specificity around what is required to really modernize the distribution system such that it can facilitate the states carbon reduction goals and customer choice on technology, so distributed energy resources. That is a lot harder for us at this early juncture to be able to handicap what of that would ultimately be approved. There is kind of the standard stuff which, when you lump it together with transmission spending and the like, it is going to look pretty similar to what you have seen in the past from us, maybe a little bit higher. Then there is a new layer of stuff that really this rate case will kind of start that conversation about, what that might look like and that would be additive to that kind of base level. So this is what I signaled last earnings call and what we have elaborated on a little bit more in this earnings call.
Michael Lapides:
When you talk to customer groups and when you meet with some of the big parties, how flexible are they in terms of the balanced need to modernize the distribution system versus the impact of what that does on rates and therefore their own economics?
Ted Craver:
I did not go into that again, here, on this call, but last earnings call, I made a fairly involved discussion about what has been the pace of electric rate increases relative to the pace of underlying consumer price index increases. A lot of this depends on what year you are starting with and what year you’re ending with. But as I said in the last call, whether you looked at the 1 year, the 5 year, the 10, the 20, the rate of increase in customer rates, the system average rate has actually been at or below the rate of inflation, the Southern California area CPI. I remember the 20 year number because that is probably the most relevant one. Over the long-term, that CPI increase from 1995 to 2015 was 2.4% Compound Annual Growth Rate. The rate of Increase in electric rates over that same 1995 to 2015 period was 2.0% Compound Annual Growth Rate. As it demonstrates, over the long haul, we have been able to manage the price of electricity at or below the rate of inflation and that continues to be kind of our overall goal. You will have periods where you get more of a surge. You get other periods where you end up consolidating some of those increases, but the key, I think, over the long haul is to have the price of electricity stay at or below the rate of inflation. That is our overall goal. That remains our goal.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Thank you, Ted. Much appreciated.
Ted Craver:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Anthony Crowdell from Jefferies.
Anthony Crowdell:
Good afternoon. I just have a quick question on the MHI. I know you can’t talk about it or a decision has yet to be rendered, but any thought on the use of proceeds from the shareholder portion of a decision?
Jim Scilacci:
Not at this time. Obviously, if there were recoveries, it would be excess equity based on the sharing arrangements associated with the settlement, and then we will have to decide if we’re fortunate enough to get in that position what to do with the cash.
Anthony Crowdell:
Does that excess equity go to the utility, the parent or does it matter?
Jim Scilacci:
I am sorry. I should have been clearer. It definitely goes to the utility.
Anthony Crowdell:
Great. Thanks for taking my question, guys and good luck in retirement.
Jim Scilacci:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Next we will move on to Praful Mehta from Citigroup. You may go ahead with your questions.
Praful Mehta:
Thanks, very much. Hi, guys.
Jim Scilacci:
How are you doing, Praful? Sorry.
Praful Mehta:
[Indiscernible]
Jim Scilacci:
Prahul, hold on a second. You have to get closer. The mic is really breaking up.
Praful Mehta:
Is this any better?
Jim Scilacci:
A little bit. Go ahead.
Praful Mehta:
On Edison Energy, I just wanted to understand a quick update on how the different businesses are doing and if there is any update on size or scale of that business [indiscernible]?
Ted Craver:
This is Ted. I will do something really quick here. I think most of the focus most recently has been on SoCore, so that is our solar distributive solar generation company, and Edison Energy which is the new venture that is focused on providing energy services to commercial and industrial customers. I think at this juncture, we may have made some comment about this in the last earnings call, but I think we feel encouraged based on customer reaction to the launch of Edison Energy, the CNI energy services business. This is not one of those things where it is going to get built overnight. This is going to take some time. There really isn’t, as we see it, at least, there isn’t a category out there that addresses the market that we are trying to create, so it is going to take a little bit of time, but we are encouraged based on customer reaction, and we are encouraged based on some deals that have been coming in the door the last few months. I will just leave it there. I don’t think you should expect we will be providing something every quarter on this. It’s probably more likely to be maybe a couple times a year as this thing progresses.
Praful Mehta:
Okay. [Indiscernible]
Ted Craver:
I’m really sorry, but for some reason your microphone is kind of really breaking up. I did not catch much of the question.
Praful Mehta:
Pardon me. I was trying to understand, so you were saying the scale and revenues from the businesses should not change [indiscernible].
Jim Scilacci:
Praful, the connection is very bad. I have a call with you after the conclusion of this, and we will just follow-up with that question so we can get it clearer for you.
Praful Mehta:
Thanks, guys.
Ted Craver:
Thanks.
Operator:
Next question is from the line of Michael Weinstein, from Credit Suisse.
Michael Weinstein:
Congratulations, Ted and Jim.
Jim Scilacci:
Thanks, Mike.
Michael Weinstein:
It sounds like you intend to address the bulk of DRP planned spending through 2020 in the GRC filing. Is that intended to supersede the current outstanding DRP review docket, or does the earlier docket still have the potential to result in changes to the GRC plan after the fact?
Jim Scilacci:
Mike, we are going to have Ron Nichols from the utility answer that question. He is responsible for all our regulatory activities at the utility.
Ron Nichols:
Michael, the DRP, the Distribution Resources Plan, provides for some of the policy level guidance that we’re going to do. Ultimately, the recovery of costs are expected after some change which there hasn’t been so far. It would be recovered through the ultimate GRC. I think that was what your question was. If I’m not answering it, you might want to restate it.
Michael Weinstein:
I guess I’m wondering if, let’s say, priorities are changed in that docket. I guess you would go back and you would have to change the approved spending plan in the GRC? The GRC approves a certain level of CapEx for Distribution Resource Planning and then certain priorities are changed in the other docket. Does that go back and wind up making reductions to the amount of spending that is planned through 2020?
Ron Nichols:
First of all, the commission hasn’t made clear, yet, they are actually still discussing what that interrelationship between the DRP and the General Rate Case’s will be. It is a matter that is still being discussed. I certainly would not anticipate retroactive changes. Pedro?
Pedro Pizarro:
This is Pedro Pizarro. I would also add that I would expect that the kind of spending that we would see over the next few years is all going to be fairly foundational. We will provide more detail on that in the GRC, but even in what we put out there in our DRP filing last year and the materials that Jim was referencing earlier in our business update, if you take a look at the categories of spend there. It is fairly foundational. It is upgrading circuits, some of our older circuits that are lower voltage and need to be brought up to more modern standards in order to accommodate distributed energy resources. It is also technology side things around our field area network, communications infrastructure to have enough bandwidth to handle the new devices out there. I think that will hopefully provide a little narrower range in terms of the direction, but you’re right that priorities change through DRP or the policy filings that ultimately gets reflected in the GRC’s.
Jim Scilacci:
Mike, related to this, and Ted mentioned this in his comments, is the memorandum account that we just recently filed. We want to spend some capital and O&M dollars, especially next year. It is really hard to step up in a material way to ramp up a program, and you need to do it in steps. That is what that memorandum account is really designed to do, to get us going and then give us a running start into the 2018 GRC period. That is an important milestone. What the commission does with that will be an important thing for our GRC.
Michael Weinstein:
Understood. Thank you.
Ted Craver:
We probably have time for one more quick question.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates.
Paul Patterson:
Hi. Can you hear me?
Jim Scilacci:
Yes, Paul.
Paul Patterson:
Congratulations on the retirement.
Jim Scilacci:
Thank you, very much.
Paul Patterson:
Just really quickly, most of my questions have been answered, but what actually triggered this one-timer, or it seems like a one-timer, this incentive payment, and if you could elaborate a little bit more on that and this sentence about solar sales declining or revenues declining and calls going up? Why isn’t it a one-timer? Why is it non-core?
Jim Scilacci:
We are going to give Ron Litzinger, the present of Edison Energy to give you a sense of what the background was, and I will pick up the core versus non-core.
Ron Litzinger:
Really, it was to make sure that all of the acquired companies are incentivized around the earnings or the EBITDA for the entire Edison Energy enterprise, and when we did the acquisitions, we did not have a long-term incentive plan established. We now have that based on Edison energy earnings in total, and we felt it was best where there were individual earnout’s that were aligned around goals of the earnings for that entity only. It did not line up with our broader integrated and cross-selling model. We felt it best to transition everyone to the Edison Energy long-term incentive program and get out of the earnout.
Jim Scilacci:
Thanks, Ron. On the broader question of core versus non-core, given the size of this, there is a number of items that we have during any year where there are questions whether if it is recurring or non-recurring. We would just rather keep it in core and identify it. If it is large, discrete, or if you sell a business or when we shut down SONGS, those things are clearly in our view, non-core. These ones are, we just prefer to keep them in core and identify them as such.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. Thanks, guys.
Jim Scilacci:
Okay, Paul.
Operator:
Thank you. That was the last question. I will now turn the call back to Edison International.
Ted Craver:
This is Ted and I am going to pick up from here. Obviously, you know this is my last earnings call with Edison, and I just ask you to indulge me while I make a few closing comments. First, it has been a true honor to be the CEO of Edison International. This company has been an essential part of the economic fabric of this region for 130 years during which we provided the most essential of goods for modern society to function and prosper that is electricity. To have been a part of this great company is truly humbling. I am exceptionally proud of what this management team and our employees have accomplished these last years. I am sincerely grateful for the wisdom, advice, counsel of our Board of Directors that they have provided. I particularly want to single out Jim Scilacci just because it is so much fun. For a huge thank you. He, above all, will tell me like it is. He will tell me what I must hear, not what I might like to hear. He does it with such glee. He has been a great friend and a great colleague so thank you, Jim. I believe we have crafted a strong strategy for success and value creation here at Edison. We have overcome many obstacles. You might say we are still getting our trailing leg over a couple of hurdles yet. We have repositioned SCE to be a wires-focused electric utility in sync with and essential to California’s low carbon policy objectives. Edison energy has the potential to create a new business model, concentrating mostly on commercial and industrial customers and grit edge customer focused energy services. We continue to gain confidence that both Edison Energy and SCE are pioneers in their respective business. We may even look back one day and conclude that both were disruptors of a sort. I am unabashedly bullish on this company’s strategy and its prospects. But a good strategy does not stand alone. It must have exceptional execution and leadership to be successful. That is why I am so excited by the new leadership team who will be taking the reins in a couple of months. In my opinion, Pedro is an exceptional leader. He understands our business and our industry well and has the skills, the attitude, and the discipline to navigate our complex environment. I look forward to Pedro, along with Kevin Payne and Ron Nichols at SCE, Ron Litzinger at Edison Energy, Maria Rigatti as the CFO and the rest of the senior leadership team taking this great company to the next level of performance. I am confident that they can. Finally, it has been a real pleasure working with many of you as investors in Edison International. We have many stakeholders in this business, but investors are certainly one of the most important. We provide society with an essential service, but none of our investment in critical infrastructure is possible without the capital that you provide. I hope you feel we have rewarded your faith and confidence in us with superior performance and attractive returns. I will speak for Jim and myself here by saying we look forward to participating in future earnings calls as interested parties and investors, but in listen-only mode. Many thanks to all of you both around this table here as well as you on the phone. With that, Scott, do you want to wrap this up?
A - Scott Cunningham:
Thanks, everyone for participating and as always, please call if you have any follow-up questions. Thanks, and have a great evening. Goodbye.
Operator:
Thank you. That concludes today’s conference. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Allison Bahen - Senior Manager-Investor Relations Theodore F. Craver, Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President Pedro J. Pizarro - President & Director, Southern California Edison Co. Adam S. Umanoff - Executive Vice President & General Counsel Maria C. Rigatti - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President, Southern California Edison Co.
Analysts:
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC Greg Gordon - Evercore Group LLC Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker) Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. Brian J. Chin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.
Operator:
Good afternoon and welcome to the Edison International First Quarter 2016 Financial Teleconference. My name is Maddie, and I will be your operator today. Today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Allison Bahen, Senior Manager of Investor Relations. Ms. Bahen, you may begin your conference.
Allison Bahen - Senior Manager-Investor Relations:
Thanks, Maddie, and welcome, everyone. Our speakers today are Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Ted Craver; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Jim Scilacci. Also here are other members of the management team. Scott Cunningham is not here today, as he is recovering from minor surgery and should be back in the office soon. Materials supporting today's call are available at www.edisoninvestor.com. These include our Form 10-Q, Ted's and Jim's prepared remarks, and the presentation that accompanies Jim's comments. Tomorrow afternoon, we will distribute our regular business update presentation. During this call, we will make forward-looking statements about the future outlook for Edison International and its subsidiaries. Actual results could differ materially from current expectation. Important factors that could cause different results are set forth in our SEC filings. Please read these carefully. The presentation includes certain outlook assumptions, as well as reconciliations of non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure. During Q&A, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. I will now turn the call over to Ted.
Theodore F. Craver, Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you, Allie, and good afternoon, everyone. Our first quarter core earnings were $0.82 per share, $0.08 per share lower than last year's first quarter. Most of this decline was due to timing differences at SCE during 2015, which were caused by the delay in receiving the 2015 to 2017 General Rate Case. The underlying earnings in the first quarter of 2016 are consistent with the profile we expect for the year. Therefore, today we are reaffirming our 2016 core earnings guidance of $3.81 to $4.01 per share. Jim will elaborate on all of this in his remarks. I will focus most of my comments today on SCE's long-term growth potential. This is particularly relevant as we prepare for our 2018 to 2020 General Rate Case filing in September, and as the dialogue continues before the CPUC on the Distribution Resources Plan and related proceedings. We believe that there is good visibility to long-term sustained investment of at least $4 billion annually. They should in turn yield rate base growth of approximately $2 billion a year. We have confidence in these levels of investment for several complementary reasons. First, our strategy is very much aligned with California's goals of creating a low carbon economy and providing customers with energy technology choices. Second, we see several different infrastructure areas that require years of continued investment, all of which can be expanded further from today's levels and can be flexibly substituted for each other. Third, we have been steadily improving our ability to control overheads and fuel and purchased power costs in order to keep customer rate increases low, even with higher capital expenditures. And finally, as our rate base continues to grow, higher levels of investment can be more easily digested without stressing equity levels or our ability to execute the work. I will expand on each of these points further. As we look at the potential investments on the horizon, they support, and are supported by, several critical public policy initiatives. The overarching policy support comes from California's desire to create a vibrant low carbon economy. This is not solely a goal of policymakers, but rooted in strong public support across income and ethnic divides. It is well understood that the state's low carbon goals cannot be met without substantially greater electrification of stationary and mobile sources of energy use. Decarbonization is supported by California's existing carbon cap-and-trade system, which does not rely on U.S. EPA's new carbon rules to be implemented. There is also strong support for clean energy technology development in the state, driven in part by the importance of Silicon Valley to the state's economy and its political influence. Importantly, Edison supplies the critical electric infrastructure investment needed to meet the state's low carbon goals and facilitate customer choice of new clean energy technology. Let me discuss the areas of infrastructure investment needed to meet the goals of providing safe, reliable and low-emitting power to our customers. Starting with the basics, reliability of the core electric infrastructure requires routine replacement of ageing poles, transformers, underground cable and so on. Our system grew rapidly after World War II through the 1970s. Therefore, many components are reaching their mean time to failure and must be replaced. SCE's infrastructure replacement program alone represents more than half of our total distribution system capital expenditures. To give you an idea of the size of this task, each year we replace on average 24,000 distribution poles, 4,000 transmission poles, 500 miles of underground cable, and 225 substation circuit breakers. Complementing basic infrastructure replacement is the need to adapt our power grid to changing customer preferences and to new technologies. This evolution to a technologically advanced electric delivery system was outlined in the Distribution Resources Plan, or DRP, that SCE filed last summer. Many of these potential investments are incremental to the investments that make up our current $4 billion annual CapEx. This vision for modernizing the grid will be an important principle as SCE develops its upcoming General Rate Case filing. The CPUC's regulatory proceedings on distributed energy resources are still in the early stages. Initial insights from the proceeding appear to endorse some of the approaches we recommended in our DRP filing, while suggesting different approaches in other areas. SCE's General Rate Case filing will be made well before the CPUC has made its full recommendations in the DRP and related proceedings. As a result, SCE will be making its best judgments on the scope and approach to grid modernization in its GRC filing. During the general rate case proceeding, SCE's views will be synchronized with those of other stakeholders, informed by the discussions taking place in the CPUC's broader Distribution Resources Plan proceedings. The GRC will be the cornerstone proceeding for determining SCE's distribution system investment program. However, there are several complementary initiatives that represent additional investment in the power grid of the future, and that are not part of the current $4 billion annual CapEx. The first is electric vehicle charging. Last month, the CPUC officially authorized SCE to commence spending under the Charge Ready pilot program they previously approved. The pilot covers the first 1,500 stations of an eventual plan for 30,000 charging systems. The total program is estimated to provide roughly one-third of the charging infrastructure needed in SCE's service territory for autos and light-duty vehicles at multi-family dwellings and public locations. While the rate base opportunity for the full program is approximately $225 million over several years, it is possible that the CPUC will consider higher levels of utility investment in charging infrastructure. Longer term, we think it is likely that additional opportunities for vehicle charging and other infrastructure may result from the transportation electrification initiative included in Senate Bill 350, signed into law last year. The bill is better known for establishing the mandate for electric utilities to deliver 50% of their customer load from renewable resources by 2030. But it also expanded the potential scope and scale of transportation electrification, which could support investments beyond SCE's current Charge Ready light-duty vehicle initiative. The objective is to support California meeting its long-term carbon reduction targets and federal Clean Air Act standards. The electric sector in California, especially the three investor-owned utilities, have become very low carbon-emitting, while the transportation sector has not. The result is that today nearly 40% of total carbon emissions in the state comes from the transportation sector, compared to less than 20% for the electric sector. As part of the implementation of SB 350, this fall the CPUC is expected to order investor-owned electric power companies to submit proposals for investments and programs that will accelerate widespread adoption of transportation electrification. This would include potentially higher levels of light-duty vehicle charging infrastructure than SCE's current target of providing 30,000 chargers. It could also include charging infrastructure for medium-duty and heavy-duty vehicles such as electric buses, trucks and tractors, which are especially important in meeting increasingly stringent air quality requirements in the LA Basin. These early concepts were part of the agenda at a CPUC workshop in San Francisco last Friday, hosted by assigned Commissioner Peterman. Another potential investment class not included in our $4 billion annual CapEx is the CPUC's energy storage initiative. SCE has the opportunity to build half of its required 580 megawatts of energy storage and place it in its rate base by 2024. We have yet to attempt to estimate the potential capital spending, rate base or timing of this investment. However, storage is a mandated program and could be significant. The DRP process may spell out a greater role for storage solutions located in the distribution systems as the economics improve and the carbon-reduction attributes of storage relative to gas-fired generation become more apparent. Transmission investments remain an important complement to SCE's distribution system investment program, though the planning process and scale are quite different. SCE continues to implement three major California ISO-approved investments. These projects are needed for transmission reliability and support the State's renewable portfolio mandate. On April 11, SCE received a proposed decision to approve the $1.1 billion West of Devers project recommended by SCE and the California ISO. You may recall that we informed you last November of delays in the regulatory approvals of this project due to consideration of an alternative, staged-project. The proposed decision largely adopts the project as we originally proposed. It could be approved as early as May 12. Assuming the PD is adopted by the Commission, and once the required federal approvals are received, the project will be ready to begin construction. The West of Devers project will help California meet its 50% renewables portfolio standard. California ISO is in the early stages of planning for the transmission infrastructure to meet the expanded renewables requirement. This will be integrated with efforts underway to extend the span of the ISO to include adjacent electric power companies in other states. There is likely to be a continuing debate about whether the future resource mix should favor more utility-scale renewables with expanded transmission capacity or distributed resources enabled by an advanced distribution system. I expect it will be a mix of the two models. SCE is positioned to participate in both models. We expect either approach will expand the investment opportunity at SCE beyond the current $4 billion annual level. While it is difficult to predict the exact trajectory of investment levels required to support California's policy objectives, our general belief is that investment levels could potentially grow beyond current CapEx levels. A critical objective that we and the CPUC share is to avoid causing customer rates from becoming unaffordable due to this expanded infrastructure investment. Our objective has been to keep customer rate increases at or below the rate of inflation in our service territory. To date, our record of accomplishing this goal is quite good. The compound annual growth rate of SCE's System Average Rate has consistently stayed below that of the Consumer Price Index for our service territory. This is true, whether you look at the last five years, 10 years, 15 years or even the last 20 years. It is especially notable that this has occurred when kilowatt hour usage since 2007 has been flat to declining. Indeed, our System Average Rate in 2016 has dropped 8% from 2015 levels. Importantly, customers react mostly to their monthly bill, not kilowatt hour rates. And our average monthly residential electric bill last year was $94, meaningfully below the national average of $127 a month. We have accomplished this through a sharp focus on reducing overhead costs, creating efficiencies, and due to the benefits of the SONGS Settlement as well as declines in fuel costs. A concluding thought on keeping rates affordable longer term; I believe the growing percentage of the renewables in our generation mix is creating an excellent hedge against the potential future spikes in natural gas prices. Although I don't expect much upward pressure on natural gas prices in the near to intermediate term, it is difficult to imagine much room for prices to go lower. SCE's generation mix will move up from the current level of roughly 25% renewables to 50%. The cost of renewables new-build is increasingly becoming equal to or better than natural gas new-build. Also, since renewables have no fuel cost, customer rates are increasingly less exposed to future natural gas price spikes. All of this helps to keep our rate increases modest and electricity affordable, while we increase our investment in building an advanced electric delivery system. As I've discussed, SCE has several potential areas of incremental investment, which gives us flexibility to ramp up one program if another starts to lag. This, along with the steadily expanding rate base, earnings and cash flow, allows us to maintain a reasonable and growing total investment program without creating pressure to issue equity or having customer rates rise beyond inflation rates. A balanced program like this should also allow us to continue to provide higher-than-industry-average growth in earnings and dividends. I'd like to conclude with a brief discussion of power grid reliability this summer in the wake of the Aliso Canyon shutdown. SCE is working closely with California regulators and Sempra's Southern California Gas Company on impacts from potential delays in returning the Aliso Canyon gas storage facility to use. Aliso Canyon provides pipeline pressure balancing to the Los Angeles Basin year-round. It also provides additional supplies in the winter when heating needs increase demand beyond the capability of interstate pipeline deliveries. SCE is one of SoCal Gas' largest customers and very focused on this issue. Because of the shutdown, the risk to electric reliability has increased, which presents its own public safety implications. As we see it, the best scenario for electric reliability is to expeditiously complete inspections of a few of the more important wells to determine if they could be safely returned to service in time for summer peak power use. SCE is also working on contingency plans to reduce demand and maximize generation flexibility. At the CPUC's direction, SCE has requested a memorandum account to track any unusual costs related to Aliso Canyon. These include costs related to demand response, energy efficiency, power contracts, et cetera. These costs are not expected to be sizeable. Any extra customer costs related to inefficient power plant dispatch will be captured as part of the ERRA balancing account mechanism. Although this situation shouldn't create financial risks for SCE, it is a potential reliability issue for our customers. Okay. That's it for me. I'll now turn it over to Jim for his financial report.
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Okay. Thanks, Ted. Please turn to page two of the presentation. As Ted indicated, today we are reaffirming our core earnings guidance. I want to emphasize the quarterly earnings profile will be difficult to model given two primary factors; SCE's delay in receiving its 2015 GRC decision and because revenues are generally weighted towards the third quarter of the year. As discussed when we introduced our 2016 earnings guidance, the simplified rate base approach is the best way to think about SCE's earnings power on an annual basis. SCE's rate base is growing, and this implies increasing earnings. However, anticipated revenue increases from both the CPUC and FERC were masked by the timing of revenues recognized in 2015. You will recall that until SCE received its 2015 GRC proposed decision, revenues were largely based on 2014 authorized levels. SCE recorded a significant year-to-date revenue adjustment in the third quarter of 2015 and a large regulatory asset write-off in the fourth quarter in connection with the final decision. With that in mind, let's look at SCE's earnings drivers. To simplify the earnings explanation, we removed the impact of San Onofre and tax repair and pole loading deductions. On a GAAP basis, as shown in the 10-Q, revenues are down $41 million, which is equivalent to $0.08 per share. As explained in footnote four, the 2016 revenue reduction relates to incremental tax repair and cost of removal deductions for the pole loading program in excess of levels authorized in the 2015 GRC. As we have previously explained, the GRC decision established balancing accounts to track forecast differences compared to actuals. Importantly, with these balancing accounts, there is no impact on earnings. Lastly, this is also the main driver for the low effective income tax rate for the quarter. After the adjustments, revenues are a net $0.04 per share positive contribution on a quarter-over-quarter basis. Breaking revenues down, there is an $0.08 per share GRC attrition mechanism increase. This mechanism provides for increases in revenues after the 2015 test year. Largely, offsetting this is a $0.06 per share timing issue on the GRC decision. As I mentioned earlier, reductions in authorized revenues from the GRC decisions are not reflected in the first quarter or second quarter 2015 results and were adjusted in the third quarter with the proposed decision and then again in the fourth quarter with the final GRC decision. Finish up on revenues, FERC revenues are $0.02 per share higher, largely for higher depreciation expense. This nets to a positive $0.04 per share earnings contribution from revenues. Moving to O&M, costs are $0.04 per share higher than last year. A significant factor in this was planned El Niño preparation costs, where SCE staged equipment such as portable generators in areas that could be sensitive to storm-related outages, as well as costs associated with responses to storms. While the Southern California El Niño phenomenon did not materialize at the level that had been predicted by many, we did see more significant storm activity than we experienced in 2015. Other important items include planned higher costs for distribution system inspections as well as higher severance costs resulting from ongoing efforts to drive increased productivity and efficiency. Higher depreciation of $0.02 per share reflects the normal trend supporting SCE's wires-focused capital spending program. Income taxes, excluding the tax balancing account related items I've already discussed, are $0.02 per share higher than last year. The effective tax rate in the quarter is 14% compared to 24% last year. As I said previously, the lower rate largely reflects the incremental tax benefits above authorized levels. Excluding the $0.13 per share incremental tax benefits, the effective tax rate would have been 34%. Turning to Edison International earnings drivers, overall costs are higher by $0.03 per share. Holding company costs are comparable to last year. We had no affordable housing earnings this year, since the portfolio was sold last December, while in Q1 of 2015 we recorded $0.01 per share of earnings. Edison Energy's net loss is $0.02 per share higher than last year. This reflects expected development and operating costs of Edison Energy's businesses and timing of revenues from the newly acquired businesses. Revenues are $6 million in the first quarter of 2016. Our reported sales from last year were $3 million and only included SoCore Energy and not the recently acquired companies. I'd also like to remind investors that our financing strategy for SoCore Energy's commercial solar program primarily uses third-party tax equity and project financing. As a result, a portion of project economics go to the tax equity investors. Holding company results on a core basis exclude earnings related to the hypothetical liquidation at book value accounting method for SoCore Energy's tax equity financings. This is $0.01 per share this year versus $0.02 per share last year. So overall, Edison International core earnings are down $0.08 per share. Please turn to page three. SCE's capital spending forecast is unchanged from our last call. First quarter and actual SCE's spending of $1 billion is consistent with 2016 authorized levels. Keep in mind that this forecast does not include any DRP-related spending. SCE will continue to evaluate whether to pursue any early stage work this year. Page four shows SCE's rate base forecast, which is also unchanged. Please turn to page five. The West of Devers project Ted mentioned is one of the two large transmission projects where most of the investment will be on the current rate base guidance period. Some of you may have followed this proceeding, and there's one unique aspect to the project. Some of the West of Devers route transits the Morongo Indian reservation in the Coachella Valley. As discussed in our 10-K, a Morongo transmission entity has an option to invest $400 million or up to one half of the $1.1 billion project at commercial operation, which SCE expects to be in 2021. For internal planning purposes, SCE assumes that the option will be exercised. The 2018 GRC will include capital expenditures through 2020. With the option exercise date falling just outside of the period of time we will be providing more visibility on, we thought it was important to bring this option to the attention of investors and analysts. Please turn to page six. We have reaffirmed our core earnings guidance for the full year at $3.81 per share to $4.01 per share and updated our GAAP guidance for first-quarter non-core items. Our key assumptions are also unchanged. That's it for me. Operator, let's get started with the Q&A.
Operator:
Thank you. Our first question is coming from Michael Weinstein of UBS. Your line is now open.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Hey, it's Julien here.
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Hi, Julien. It's Jim.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Hey, Jim. So, first question, you talked about SB 350 on the call just now. Can you elaborate how the regulatory schedule would jibe with what you've already underway on the 30,000 EV deployment? And kind of when you think about the scale of deployment contemplated and the ability to own it, I mean what kind of opportunity is that relative to even just the $225 million (30:37) elaborated?
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
So, Julien, I'm going to turn that over to Pedro Pizarro.
Pedro J. Pizarro - President & Director, Southern California Edison Co.:
Hi, there. So, starting with the charge rating piece, I think Jim and Ted had mentioned already we now have approval for the pilot phase, that's the first 1,500 chargers' worth. And as soon as we get to the pilot phase, we'll go back to the PUC with a report and have that proceeded and seek authorization to take on the balance of the up to 30,000 chargers covered by the Charge Ready program. And I think we'll have visibility into that, and in terms of the regulatory timeline for that, I think it's envisioned that the pilot might take up to 12 months, we will go to the PUC as soon as we have enough data from the pilot. And tough to forecast how long it might take the PUC to provide approval for the balance of the Charge Ready Program, but we will be going back as soon as we have pilot data. Separate from that, in terms of additional opportunities, I think in Ted's remarks he commented how it is possible that the PUC might envision a further role for us; I think, a couple directions for that. One could be that with the Charge Ready program, we've estimated those 30,000 chargers would cover about a third of the need for charging infrastructure to meet the state's objectives for electric vehicle deployment. So one potential thrust would be whether the PUC might support us going even further than the Charge Ready program. They want to – don't have any forecast or anything like that there but that is one potential direction. The other one is SB 350, there is talk about support for a broader utility role in transportation electrification and that could go beyond light-duty vehicles, that could go to other forms of transportation. Again tough to put our arms around what that could be, it will intersect with the integrated resource plan proceeding that's also called for by SB 350 that's just undergoing, scoping at the PUC now. So while we can't point precisely to a specific program or specific number side of it, I think the theme is that there is a general recognition in the state that transportation electrification, whether light-duty vehicles or heavier transport, it's going to be a big part of achieving greenhouse gas targets and it's likely there's some possibility for further utility roles there.
Theodore F. Craver, Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Julien, this is Ted, maybe just one other thing to add in there is as I mentioned, this fall, the PUC is expected order the investor-owned utilities to submit proposals for investments and programs related to the transportation electrification initiative in SB 350. So I think we'll have a little bit more visibility late this year as to at least what the initial thinking is from the PUC.
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Hey, Julien, this is Jim. Just to finalize the point, when we file the General Rate Case later this year, we'll include in our forecast of capital expenditures an estimate of spending for electric vehicles and we are developing that now based on what we are seeing in the pilot. We'll have to come up with an estimate that covers beyond – through all the way through 2020. And we will include that as part of our normal expenditures.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Including the 350 piece, the SB 350 piece?
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yes.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Got it. And then, Jim, just actually a quick subsequent follow-up from our prior conversations, MHI arbitration, just timing expectations, if you can just give us the latest.
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Well, we'll let Adam Umanoff, our General Counsel, have that fun one.
Adam S. Umanoff - Executive Vice President & General Counsel:
Thank you, Jim. As you know, we operate under a confidentiality order issued by the International Arbitration Tribunal. What we can tell you is that we've conducted a hearing, the hearing has ended at the end of last week, April 29, and we are expecting a ruling from the tribunal by the end of this year. It's possible it could go over into early 2017, but our current expectation is by the end of this year.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Is there something beyond the current hearing that needs to happen and to get a ruling?
Adam S. Umanoff - Executive Vice President & General Counsel:
There is the usual post-hearing exchange of briefs and then consideration by the tribunal. We're not expecting any further testimony or any further proceedings in the hearing itself.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Great. Thank you, guys.
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thanks, Julien.
Operator:
Our next question is coming from Greg Gordon of Evercore ISI. Your line is now open.
Greg Gordon - Evercore Group LLC:
Thanks, guys. Just a simple question. When you quote that $2 billion notional sort of rate base growth number, obviously that's before some of the other things you discussed. Does that contemplate bonus depreciation, is that pre bonus deprecation? Is that sort of in the range of what you get with or without – can you be a little more specific?
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Greg, it's Jim. I think it's just meant to be a general guideline that, if you're going to spend $4 billion in capital, the way our depreciation works and roughly the way the closings work out that you get to a rough order of magnitude of the $2 billion in growth in rate base a year. And if you look back in time, rate base, it bounces around from year to year, it could be – if you have a large transmission closing or something that can make that growth be somewhat different, but as we kind of look at the numbers and look at it over a period of time, it seems to work.
Greg Gordon - Evercore Group LLC:
And you've had bonus depreciation in one form or another through most of that period, so...
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
We have, we have.
Greg Gordon - Evercore Group LLC:
So, that would presume that it's kind of in there.
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. And again, it may change a little bit as we go forward in time, because bonus will start ramping down as we get beyond the next couple of years.
Greg Gordon - Evercore Group LLC:
Well, supposedly.
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. Agreed.
Greg Gordon - Evercore Group LLC:
Okay. Thank you, guys.
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Okay.
Operator:
Our next question is coming from Jonathan Arnold of Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Well, good afternoon, guys.
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Hi, Jonathan.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
A quick question on the parent EIX level drag and the $0.06 in the quarter. I think some of your description as to variance versus last year was helpful, so thanks for that but is $0.06 kind of the current run rate, and if so how do we bridge to the $0.18 for the full year? Is there other things going on or is that just kind of ramp up of the revenues in some of the acquired businesses that get you there and some front ending of costs, so just curious.
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. So, John – and we've reaffirmed the annual guidance numbers. And so we're going to stick with that, and you could see some variation quarter-to-quarter, it's really hard to predict especially when you buy some new businesses and costs that float into the first quarter, but we're going to hold on to what we've indicated the – in guidance, the full year impact's going to be.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. So, but those, you can't kind of talk us through how you – how the $0.06 in the first quarter kind of becomes $0.18 for the year, or is that just seasonality?
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
I think that's our best plan right now from what we're seeing. And I don't have any further commentary in terms of how it's going to change quarter-to-quarter, but we think the level we indicated at the beginning of the year was appropriate.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Great. Okay. And then just on the Morongo issue that you highlighted, Jim, can you explain the numbers, it's a $1.1 billion project and you said that they could invest $400 million for up to half of it?
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yes.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
How does that make sense?
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Well, that's the way the agreement reads.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay.
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
So, I think it was – as over time the size of the project is going up, but that's the way the agreement reads and we've assumed that they would exercise for the 50%, but that's for planning purposes, that's an option on their side.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
They would end up with 50% of the project and you would receive $400 million, is that...
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
No. No. So, if it's $1 billion, say if it's $1 billion and a 50% then they could take up to $0.5 billion. So if it's $1.1 billion then you've got the $550 million.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. So it's the amount would be dependent on what the cost actually is?
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. So, they have the option. So that's why we're trying to describe the full amount. They may only take $400 million for whatever reason. But if it's a good project, you would expect them to take more.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. Great. Thank you.
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
All right.
Operator:
Our next question is coming from Praful Mehta of Citigroup. Your line is now open.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Thank you. Hi, guys.
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Hi.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Quick question on the vehicle charging. As that program gets built out, how do you see that impacting load and do you have resources right now or what kind of generation mix do you think kind of supports that build-out, given it's going to be sizeable over time?
Pedro J. Pizarro - President & Director, Southern California Edison Co.:
On electric vehicle charging.
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Okay, I missed the first part.
Pedro J. Pizarro - President & Director, Southern California Edison Co.:
I can...
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Pedro, go right ahead.
Pedro J. Pizarro - President & Director, Southern California Edison Co.:
Sure. I think if you look at electric vehicle charging, to date, it has – we've been able to accommodate the number of vehicles that have come on the grid without any undue impact on the system. I think this is one of these items where we'd expect to have planning visibility into what the needs are as the market continues to grow. So, I don't think it's one that lends itself to a dramatic spike. I'd also point out that from a system perspective, the Californian system overall still enjoys some pretty healthy resource margins. And then – so I'd expect that certainly over the next several years should be the ability to accommodate that. And then the final point I'd make is that, as the load from electric vehicles increases, that is happening in the context still of the net load for the system, which we continue to see moving in a generally flat to even potential decline as we have other offsetting factors, increased energy efficiency, increased demand response. So, we'll have to continue to watch this from a planning perspective, as the market develops. But today we're not seeing any undue impact that would be difficult to manage. Maybe one last little coda on that is that as we get more vehicles on the system, we're going to be working with the regulators to have the right sort of signals and incentives to encourage charging when it helps from an overall system perspective. So, you guys are all pretty familiar with the concept of the duck curve, the fact that we have a lot more solar on the system today, and the ISO expects that to grow so the extent to which we can accommodate electric vehicles with current resources will be assisted by having charging align better with time periods during the day when we have more energy flowing out of solar panels.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Okay. That's very helpful. Thank you. And then finally just to link with that, the focus on keeping rates at inflation, going at inflation or below, how does this charging stations, where people are charging at homes, do you ever see that becoming a problem in terms of rate, especially if you say, bonus depreciation, reverses in stocks adding to rate base, start having these kind of charging stations at home as well. Do you ever see rates becoming a challenge, going out in the future?
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
That's always a – great question. There is a lot of factors that affect our rates and capital expenditures, we're watching any number of items, you're watching what's happening with fuel and purchase power. I mean, we're watching our sales, obviously that's where you're getting at, I mean obviously electric vehicle charging helps others detract from it. That would be solar roof panel for potentially energy efficiency. So, we're trying to balance all those factors, and the goal is to try to keep that, the rates in or around the inflation level. And so, I think Ted's points were real clear that over longer periods of time we've had acceleration in capital expenditures and we've had lower gas prices and all these different factors over quite a long period of time, and more importantly in the shorter term, the cost focus, the reduction in costs, because O&M obviously reduces rates dollar per dollar where capital is at a smaller percentage. So we'll continue to monitor it; obviously from year to year you probably – we may exceed it or go underneath it, like this last year was 8% reduction. But over time, I think as the general trend we'd like to see it come in around that inflation level.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Got you. Thanks so much, guys.
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Okay.
Operator:
Our next question is coming from Steve Fleishman of Wolfe. Your line is now open.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Yeah, hi. Ted, can you hear me?
Theodore F. Craver, Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yes, Steve.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
All right. Just, I wanted to maybe just try and summarize your prepared remarks comments on the capital spending. So, you talk about the $4 billion a year of CapEx, and $2 billion of rate base growth, but then when you go through the different segments, a lot of them including some of that the DRP, electric vehicle storage could be kind of upside to that $4 billion a year. And then at the end you talk about maybe some programs could lag over time and the like. And so I'm just overall – are you kind of sending the message that we're likely to see higher capital spend over this future period than we've had in the past, given these variety of new programs?
Theodore F. Craver, Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. Just, cutting right to the quick, the short answer is yes.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay.
Theodore F. Craver, Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
So, the point we're really trying to make is there are many levers. There is also a balancing act. So, under the many levers part of the equation, if for some reason one or more of these potential capital spends lags or we need to pull it back, there are substitute capital spending that can be pushed into its place. So I think we feel confident about the – certainly feel confident about the $4 billion and believe that there is upside. I'd say the second part is the balancing act element where – you've heard me on this a lot of times before – that if you get this thing growing too fast, you end up putting pressure first on customer rates and secondly on the ability of the underlying business to support the equity requirement of the new investment. So it's a matter of trying to get it in the sweet spot where you're getting kind of the maximum benefit from the growth but not so fast that it puts pressure on the need to issue equity or on customer rates. And that was the second kind of main point that I was trying to get across here is – as the rate base grows, earnings, cash grow along with it. We feel comfortable about being able to support a greater than $4 billion number without having to issue equity, and secondly, as we tried to spend quite a bit of time on here in the remarks, we actually have a really good track record of keeping customer rates below the rate of inflation in our service territory. And that coupled with the fact our average residential bill is considerably lower than the national average and that's what customers really see, we feel we've kind of got the cost side under control and that it will support the ability to have this expanded investment opportunity. So those are kind of all the main points that I was really trying to make.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
No, that's helpful. And just in terms of the visibility on these longer-term numbers, I know we should hopefully get a lot of that with the GRC filing. And we'll have the – the DRP spend will likely be within the GRC ...
Theodore F. Craver, Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
... filing. But things like the storage and the electric vehicles will kind of continue on their own pace separate from that?
Theodore F. Craver, Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Likely yes. Just a word on the General Rate Case and some of these other proceedings that will be going on at the same time. I think this one is going to be a little different for us in that what we put into the General Rate Case will try to anticipate, at least our best thinking on how we see some of this grid modernization activity taking place. Even though that will be in the process of being discussed coincident with the rate case filing, so that will be in the DRP proceedings. So this is going to be a little bit of – couple of things happening at the same time. We will do our best to articulate those in the General Rate Case. And there are other things, kind of the third point, there are other things above and beyond strictly what's in the DRP or what you would find in the General Rate Case, and that's what we are alluding to with some of the transportation electrification initiatives embedded in SB 350 and things of that sort. Storage and other pieces (48:54) would probably largely be outside of that. And of course, as more things develop with the transmission spending, as we look towards moving to 50% renewables and an expanded ISO, California ISO scope, there may very well be other investment opportunities embedded in that that also are not going to be in the GRC or some of these other proceedings. So, I think the general point here is there is, we feel, a robust opportunity, but of course, we want to make sure we're doing that in a good, balanced way, so, it doesn't put pressure on equity and doesn't put pressure on customer rates.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Great. Thank you very much.
Theodore F. Craver, Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
You're welcome.
Operator:
Our next question is coming from Michael Lapides of Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Hey guys. I'll follow on to Steve's question a little bit, but maybe a slightly different angle. Ted, it seems like you're hinting that somewhere in the post 2017, you're going to have CapEx above the $4 billion range. The when and where and how is still to be determined, but you seem pretty confident in that. I guess my question comes to the dividend, which is how are you thinking about the dividend growth trajectory, given the fact that kind of the risk reward to CapEx in the out years is higher rather than lower?
Theodore F. Craver, Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, I think that's kind of embedded in our stated target, which is as you know, lower than what the industry average is. So, we have a 45% to 55% payout ratio target on SCE's earnings. If I remember it right, the average utility payout ratio is somewhere between 60% and 65%, probably closer to 65%. So, and again, you've heard on me on this before, I believe given the growth prospects, the long-term growth prospects at SCE and Edison, that we probably should have a somewhat lower stated target. We're mindful of the fact that that is lower than the industry average. I've probably used the phrase so many times, you guys are sick of hearing about it. But we still believe there is good room to come forward over the next few years here with dividend increases that are above the industry average, as we move up into this 45% to 55% payout ratio. There could potentially be opportunities above that, but we'll worry about that when we get there.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. And one follow-up, unrelated, what's the latest process or procedure wise, at the CPUC, when it comes to the request for re-hearing on the SONGS decisions?
Adam S. Umanoff - Executive Vice President & General Counsel:
This is Adam Umanoff. There really is no additional news we have to share, the challenges to the SONGS OII settlement remain pending at the CPUC and we are awaiting a decision.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
And the CPUC can you just kind of rule any day TBD?
Adam S. Umanoff - Executive Vice President & General Counsel:
Yeah, there is no fixed timeframe for them to rule. It could happen tomorrow, it could happen in six months. We don't have any guarantees of timing.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. Thank you, Adam. Much appreciated.
Theodore F. Craver, Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Michael.
Operator:
Our next question is coming from Brian Chin of Bank of America. Your line is now open.
Brian J. Chin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Hi. Good morning. Can you hear me?
Theodore F. Craver, Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Hi, Brian.
Brian J. Chin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Hi. Just a general question about net metering policy in California. We've seen some interesting developments in New York and it seems like the tone in Arizona has marginally shifted towards a little bit more reconciliation, as opposed to outright conflict. Is there any sort of read-through to the different parties in California in terms of what's going on in other states, as to how things might play out and might tip the scales in one direction or another in California, just more general thoughts there, if you would.
Theodore F. Craver, Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Want to take that, Pedro?
Pedro J. Pizarro - President & Director, Southern California Edison Co.:
Yeah sure. Hey, Brian. It's Pedro, how are you?
Brian J. Chin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Good, Pedro.
Pedro J. Pizarro - President & Director, Southern California Edison Co.:
So yeah, we've seen with interest the agreement in New York among the utilities and some of the solar parties, and read about the Arizona piece as well. Just stay at a high level here and say that we've had constructive discussions with a number of the parties on all sides here in California as well. Obviously we proceeded through the NEM portion, NEM 2.0 proceeding here earlier this year. We did file a limited application for re-hearing on the topic, don't have a timeline at this point in terms of when the PUC might consider that. But I think at the core – certainly from the utility perspective, we have a strong interest in seeing the market for solar be supported, and we're doing our part, we want to make sure that our grid is getting continuously worked on to be a more and more of a two-way plug and play grid that can support solar resources. And we've done things like work on our own internal processes to shorten the timeframe for customers who want to interconnect on to our system. Used to take us about a month to process applications; we've got that down to a day and a half now. So, we're doing a lot of things that we believe are constructive and supportive, bringing solar online. I think the NEM debate in California and other states has been more about what's the cost responsibility and the level of subsidy. And so to the extent that parties can come together, and have creative approaches towards resolving some of those differences that's great. I don't think we're there in California today, but we'll continue to engage constructively with parties, and listen to ideas.
Brian J. Chin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Great. Thanks for the update, Pedro. That's all I got.
Operator:
Our next question is coming from Ali Agha of SunTrust. Your line is now open.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
Thank you. Ted or Jim, for the last several years now, you guys have done an excellent job of managing your costs and in fact that has allowed you to, in the off years, earn returns above your authorized levels as well. Just wondering how much more is left on that cost reduction side and when you benchmark yourself to where you need to be, are you halfway there, almost there just in the first quartile, can you give us some sense of where you are on that cost reduction plan?
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Hi, Ali, it's Jim. I'll straight it out and let Maria and Pedro chime in if I miss anything. There is more work to be done. We started this journey probably four years ago, and we saw at that point in time that, especially in our staffing, our A&G areas that we were considerably above benchmarks. And as you know, we benchmark our costs every single year and we break it down in significant detail in terms of some of the studies that we participate in, and there is more to be done. And it gets harder over time, as you take care of the things that we had -as I said the overstaffing areas that we were able to reduce and we've taken care of lot of that but there is more to be done. And for example, we revised our costs in our programs for our healthcare for the employees, and that takes it – over time, it builds up the advantage of that savings and it's really a cost avoidance for customers, that will then reap that benefit over time. And there is a number of other initiatives there going on. I can't peg, what you're asking me, well, how far, you're halfway, you're a third of the way, you've got two-thirds to go, it's really hard to say, because it's really organization-by-organization that we're looking at theses and some organizations may be in the first quartile, others may be in the fourth quartile. So, you really have to break it down and look at it that way. I'll pause here and look if Pedro and Maria to add anything.
Maria C. Rigatti - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President, Southern California Edison Co.:
Yeah, we're going to continue to look at also what our peer group does, because as they get better we'll find ways to also trying keep pace with what they are doing.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
Okay. And then, second question, I wondered just kind of at your comments on the balancing act that you're looking at, keeping customer rates at or below inflation. Within that context, equity issuance, just wanted to understand, are you adamant that you're going to fund all your CapEx going forward, without needing to issue equity, if those – some of those new plans come in and the CapEx goes above $4 billion, but that requires equity issuance. Would you be open to that, or just wanted to understand, is no equity completely necessary for you, over the next several years?
Theodore F. Craver, Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. It's – I mean it's fair question, but I think without trying to be wibble wobbly about it, the way we see it is we have a significant investment opportunity, we actually think it's an expanding investment opportunity. Because the rate base is expanding, which means cash production is expanding. But this, as we see it, allows us to keep the growth rate in balance with our retained earnings and existing equity so that we would not need to issue additional equity. Obviously, if the commission or somehow we're ordered to do something really dramatic, we're going to maintain our required equity ratio but I think that's such a remote risk that I feel comfortable saying it the way we've said it, that the key here is to keep the growth rate in balance with keeping customer rate increases at or below the rate of inflation. And as we've evidenced here, we've done, I think, a really great job of that, and we intend to continue to do that. And such that we don't have to issue equity and I think we can keep that balance. We've done it even when we had 12% annual rates of growth in CapEx and earnings; yet, we were able to – so pulling a lot of rabbits out of the hat, we were able to avoid any equity issuance and that was a very strong commitment that Jim and I had all through that period of time. So I feel comfortable making a statement, we'll keep it in balance.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
And what is the regulatory equity ratio right now for you guys?
Theodore F. Craver, Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
I missed that. What was the what?
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
At the end of this quarter what is the equity ratio at the utility (1:00:15)?
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
It's 50.2%.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
Versus 48% authorized?
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yes.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
Okay. Thank you.
Theodore F. Craver, Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
You're welcome.
Operator:
That was the last question. I will now turn the call back to Ms. Bahen.
Allison Bahen - Senior Manager-Investor Relations:
Thank you for joining us and please call if you have any follow-up questions. Thanks.
Operator:
That concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at this time.
Executives:
Scott S. Cunningham - Vice President-Investor Relations Theodore F. Craver, Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President Pedro J. Pizarro - President & Director, Southern California Edison Co. Adam S. Umanoff - Executive Vice President & General Counsel
Analysts:
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker) Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc. Ashar Khan - Visium Asset Management LP
Operator:
Good afternoon and welcome to the Edison International Fourth Quarter 2015 Financial Teleconference. My name is Mary and I will be your operator today. Today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Scott Cunningham, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Cunningham, you may begin your conference.
Scott S. Cunningham - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thanks, Mary, and welcome, everyone. Our principal speakers today will be Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Ted Craver; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Jim Scilacci. Also here are other members of the management team. Materials supporting today's call are available at www.edisoninvestor.com. These include our Form 10-Q, Ted's and Jim's prepared remarks, and the presentation that accompanies Jim's comments. Tomorrow afternoon, we will distribute our regular business update presentation. During this call, we will make forward-looking statements about the future outlook for Edison International and its subsidiaries. Actual results could differ materially from current expectation. Important factors that could cause different results are set forth in our SEC filings. Please read these carefully. The presentation includes certain outlook assumptions, as well as reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure. During Q&A, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. I'll now turn the call over to Ted.
Theodore F. Craver, Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you, Scott, and good afternoon, everyone. In my remarks today, I will touch briefly on our 2015 performance and then focus on Southern California Edison's and Edison Energy Group's, long-term growth opportunity. Closing out one year and starting a new one is a natural time to reflect on some of the longer-term themes. Full year 2015 core earnings were $4.10 per share, $0.23 above the high end of our core earnings guidance range. We also introduced today our 2016 core earnings guidance range of $3.81 to $4.01 per share which reflects SCE's strong rate base growth, a continuing focus on improvements in operational efficiency and ongoing energy efficiency incentives. We believe that SCE's rate base is the best proxy for long-term earnings growth potential. As Jim will soon describe in more detail, we have updated our forecast of SCE's rate base through 2017. Rate base for 2015 increased $300 million and our forecast for 2016 rate base also increased by $300 million. The rate base for 2017 increased by $100 million. It seems some investors have been expecting a substantial decline in rate base due to bonus depreciation, but the effect of bonus depreciation is less, and there are other offsets. Bonus depreciation did not have any significant impact on 2015. Impacts pick up somewhat in 2016 and 2017. Bonus depreciation impacts are more than offset by a higher rate base from our distribution pole loading program on which we earn a rate of return, as prescribed in SCE's 2015 general rate case. Jim will provide a more fulsome explanation, but the bottom line is that we expect rate base to be slightly higher in 2017 than our previous forecast after taking into account the final general rate case decision and the full effect of bonus depreciation. Customers will see the benefits of SCE's continuing efforts to reduce cost. Through these efforts, together with lower fuel and purchase power cost, the NEIL insurance settlement of our San Onofre claims and the 2015 GRC, customers will receive on average a reduction in 2016 rates of 8%. This is a significant benefit for our customers and something we are very pleased to deliver to them. SCE's share of the $400 million NEIL settlement was $313 million. After legal expenses, 95% went to customers. This is another example of the benefits of the San Onofre settlement unanimously approved by the CPUC in 2014. The last major step in implementing the settlement will be resolution of our pending and arbitration case with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. Hearings before the three-judge panel are expected this spring. We still expect a decision late this year. As we've said previously, we are under confidentiality provisions during the litigation process, so we don't expect to have further updates unless there is some material development. The CPUC's December decision on ex-parte communications completed its consideration of the matters of the SONGS OII. The challenges to the Commission's approval of the settlement remain pending. We have no estimates on the timeframe to decide those challenges. In the meantime, we are focused on the safety commissioning of San Onofre. Based on our current decommissioning cost estimates, our decommissioning trust funds are adequately funded and not expected to require any further customer contributions. Our December dividend increase of $0.25, the second in as many years, equates to a 47% payout based on the midpoint of our 2016 SCE earnings guidance. We continue to see an excellent dividend growth opportunity as we grow SCE earnings and move up through our current targeted payout ratio of 45% to 55% of SCE's earnings. I won't attempt a prediction of future dividend increases, but I will describe our thinking. Our earnings growth is largely driven by long-term rate base growth. After depreciation, capital spending of approximately $4 billion a year will translate into rate base growing by roughly $2 billion a year. This would yield a 7% annual rate base growth potential for some years to come, and if we have higher annual CapEx, we will have a higher rate base growth rate. Additionally, moving the dividend payout ratio further up in our targeted 45% to 55% range only adds to the potential annual dividend growth rate. We believe that we are well-positioned for sustained growth in rate base and earnings at SCE. We have positioned SCE as a wires-focused business, consistent with our views on industry transformation and in alignment with California's public policy objectives to move the state to a low carbon economy. We see more opportunities for growth than we do threats in the changes occurring in our industry. Recently, we have taken steps to further position Edison Energy Group to develop those opportunities. We are focused on finding those areas where customers' needs are unmet, that match well with our competitive advantages, and that hold promise for scaling-up sufficiently. Edison Energy Group continues to expand into businesses that meet this profile, including distributed solar generation, energy services for commercial and industrial companies, providing new sources of water, and competitive transmission. Our SoCore Energy subsidiary added more commercial rooftop solar customers in 2015, and now has nearly 250 projects operating in 16 states. It has expanded beyond rooftop installations to ground-mounted projects serving both community solar and rural electric cooperatives. SoCore also piloted an innovative project for Cinemark Theaters that combined its rooftop solar panels with energy storage from Tesla Energy. We continue to build out an integrated energy services platform, which we call Edison Energy, to address the needs of commercial and industrial companies. Our market research has led us to conclude that the largest commercial and industrial companies with multi-state operations are underserved nationally in their energy needs and struggle to deal locally with many different utilities, tariffs and new technologies. We believe we possess several competitive advantages to succeed with customers in this new and quickly evolving power environment. Our roots are as developers, operators and investors in complex infrastructure. We have deep technical, commercial and regulatory experience and knowledge of the power system. Our brand and substantial size gives customers confidence in our ability to deliver and contrasts with the dizzying array of untested start-ups. Our platform was expanded through some recent smaller acquisitions in the area of energy engineering and in consulting, that was Eneractive Solutions; energy procurement advisory services, which was Delta Energy; and sourcing off-site renewable energy, which was Altenex. Edison Energy now counts one quarter of the Fortune 50 companies as clients, including General Motors, Microsoft, and Procter & Gamble. Next month, Edison Energy will launch marketing efforts to larger C&I companies, emphasizing its abilities as a comprehensive, integrated energy service solution provider. Today, these new businesses are small, even though we think the opportunities could be significant. Currently, the vast majority of our capital is dedicated to our core business, modernizing the electric grid at SCE and to moving up our dividend ratio, payout ratio closer to the industry norm. Our approach to these new businesses will be disciplined, focused on small initial investments to understand strategic fit, profit drivers, and scalability. We have allocated some capital to testing and building our new businesses, but it is currently only around 1% to 2% of the total capital deployed at Edison International. We are gaining confidence that there is indeed a market need for these new businesses and that they can be profitable. The major question is whether these businesses can be scaled up sufficiently to be significant to a company our size. If performance warrants and the opportunities continue to look sizeable, we are in a position to increase our commitment. We are encouraged but, ultimately, we will be driven by results. So, to summarize, our strategy has three themes. Theme one, operate with excellence, meaning, we operate our existing business with a focus on controlling costs and customer rates and improving service to our utility customers. Theme two, build the 21st century power network. This means we invest in our existing business and manage the unprecedented changes in policy and technology. And theme three is to expand our growth potential. We systematically explore new growth opportunities by making disciplined investments where industry changes are producing unmet customer need, where we believe Edison has competitive advantages and where scalable opportunities exist. Concentrating on these three strategic themes will allow us to remain relevant to our existing customers, produce higher than industry average growth in earnings and dividends, and provide the flexibility to adapt and grow in a climate of rapid change. So, that's it for the big themes. Let me now turn the call over to Jim.
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thanks, Ted. Good afternoon, everyone. My remarks will cover fourth quarter and full year results, our updated capital spending and rate base forecasts, and our 2016 earnings guidance. I'll start with SCE's fourth quarter operating results. Please turn to page 2 of the presentation. SCE's fourth quarter 2015 earnings are $0.89 per share, down $0.20 per share from last year, but well ahead of the $0.66 per share implied by the midpoint of our 2015 earnings guidance. Looking at the year-over-year comparison, two items from last year stand out. First is the $0.15 per share income tax variance, as shown in the right table. As part of the 2015 general rate case decision, differences in tax repair benefits for 2015 through 2017 flow through the tax accounting memorandum account or TAMA and do not affect earnings. Second is last year's $0.05 per share benefit from resolution of an income tax item from the 2012 GRC. This was recorded in revenues last year and is part of the $0.15 per share revenue variance. A key item, and something that was not included in our 2015 earnings guidance, is an $0.08 per share benefit from a new balancing account for SCE's distribution pole inspection and replacement program. Let me provide some additional background. The 2015 GRC established a new balancing account to track costs to inspect distribution poles and to repair or replace them as needed. This is called the Pole Loading and Deteriorated Pole Balancing Account, or simply the pole loading balancing account. Balancing account allows SCE to true up from actual O&M and capital expenditures. For 2015, actual capital expenditures substantially exceeded amounts included in the GRC decision. Because of the lateness of the GRC decision, the Commission did not limit expenditures for 2015, but did limit expenditures for 2016 and 2017. Switching now from pole capital expenditures to rate base, the 2015 GRC decision included a pole loading rate base forecast of $296 million. Based on actual expenditures since the inception of the program, the 2015 rate base for poles increased to $625 million. As a result of the higher rate base, SCE recorded additional revenues through the pole loading balancing account to earn its authorized rate of return on the incremental rate base of $329 million. The additional $0.08 per share of earnings is based on both equity and debt returns at the blended authorized rate of 7.9%. The balancing account impact was finalized as part of our year-end reporting cycle and was not previously included in our earnings guidance. The balance of the revenue variance largely reflects the implementation of the 2015 GRC, which lowered authorized revenues, as expected. For the fourth quarter, O&M is a net positive $0.07 per share. O&M includes both the ex-parte penalty of $0.05 per share and $0.03 for additional severance costs as part of SCE's ongoing operational excellence efforts. The balance of O&M benefits are from lower transmission, distribution and legal costs. Lower net financing costs are a benefit of $0.03 per share. The incremental tax benefits from 2014 that I mentioned drive the unfavorable tax comparison. One important item that was not a key earnings driver in the quarter is bonus depreciation from the 2015 tax law change. Bonus depreciation did reduce average rate base, but only by a nominal amount, or a net $31 million. The nominal impact is much less than our general statement that a 50% bonus extension could reduce rate base by $400 million each year. I've come to the conclusion that it's very difficult to effectively estimate the impact of bonus extension until you do the detailed analysis. The fact is, there are second and third order effects that can occur making our general statement accurate only with a controlled set of assumptions. With this preamble, there are three primary factors that reduced the impact of bonus deprecation on 2015 versus our prior forecast. First, under normalization rules, bonus depreciation is pro-rated in the first year in which capital additions are estimated to be put into service. Second, certain 2015 capital additions relate to work that began in 2014 and are eligible under 2014 bonus depreciation and thus were included in our prior rate case forecast. Third, the shift in tax payments caused 2015 working cash to increase. For rate making purposes, working cash is a component of rate base. Later in my presentation, I will provide a complete reconciliation of rate base changes for 2015 through 2017. As part of the key earnings drivers, revenues and income taxes are lower due to the higher tax repair deductions recorded through the pole loading and TAMA accounts. The higher tax repair deductions in 2015 do not affect earnings and are not shown on the right side of the slide as they are netted out. The total impact for the quarter is $0.45 per share in lower revenues and income taxes. For the holding company, costs are unchanged at $0.01 per share. For SCE non-core items in the quarter include the previously announced $1.18 per share charge related to the write-down of the regulatory assets for incremental tax repair deductions for the 2012 through 2014 period. It also includes a $0.04 per share benefit from the NEIL insurance settlement and legal cost recoveries related to SONGS. Holding company non-core items include a $0.03 per share gain on the sale of Edison Capital's affordable housing portfolio at year-end and a $0.01 per share related to accounting for income tax attributes related to SoCore's tax equity financing. Discontinued operations include a $0.02 per share EME-related cost for changes in net liabilities for retirement plans and additional insurance recoveries. Page 15 has a detailed summary of all non-core items. Please turn to page 3. Full-year 2015 core earnings are $4.10 per share, down $0.49 from a year ago. SCE's 2015 earnings largely reflect the impacts of the 2015 GRC decision, especially the treatment of excess tax repair deductions, together with the other fourth quarter key drivers I mentioned earlier. Excluding the tax repair deductions now tracked in the pole loading and TAMA accounts, CPUC jurisdictional revenue is down $0.39 per share while FERC revenue is up $0.14 per share. Among the key cost components, the favorable O&M trend relates largely to the positive fourth quarter factors discussed previously. The favorable net financing costs are mainly from higher AFUDC earnings that we have been reporting all year. The major driver of lower earnings this year is the loss of tax repair benefits. In 2014, we recognized $0.41 of tax repair benefits. In 2015, these benefits either flow through the pole loading or TAMA accounts without impacting earnings. Full-year holding company costs are $0.01 per share above last year due to higher income taxes and expenses. Please turn to page 4. This slide walks through the key differences between our 2015 core earnings of $4.10 per share versus the midpoint of our guidance of $3.82. First, you'll see the $0.08 per share related to the $329 million increase in pole loading rate base I discussed earlier. The additional equity return is $0.05 and the debt and preferred return is $0.03 per share. O&M is favorable $0.08 per share due mainly to the factors I mentioned earlier. The other financing benefit is AFUDC at $0.01 per share. Taxes are the other driver due to the implementation of the TAMA account and clarification of treatment of tax items that would otherwise negatively impact earnings but now flow through this account. Holding company costs are at $0.05 per share positive variance due to higher income from Edison Capital and income tax benefits. Please turn to page 5. SCE's capital spending forecast increased slightly, adding $300 million in 2016 and $100 million in 2017, as Ted has already mentioned. The 2016 change principally relates to an updated estimate for pole loading expenditures up to the cap provided in the 2015 GRC decision and for cumulative spending in 2016 and 2017. This incremental spend will flow into rate base as you will see in a minute. The 2017 increase relates to modest changes in the scope and timing of FERC transmission investments. SCE's current forecast does not include any incremental spending on distribution resources plan activities. The forecast also excludes any energy storage investments or Phase 2 of the Charge Ready program. Please turn to page 6. A third major transmission project, the Mesa Substation, has been included in our capital spending forecasts for some time, but has advanced sufficiently through the regulatory approval process that we felt it appropriate to describe more fully. This is the replacement of a 220 kV substation with a 500 kV substation. It will provide additional transmission import capability, allowing greater flexibility in the siting of new generation and reducing the amount of new generation required to meet local reliability needs in the Western Los Angeles Basin. This is a Cal ISO approved project. Please turn to page seven. This page shows the increase in SCE's rate base forecast that Ted mentioned. I will explain the changes in a moment. The two-year compound annual growth rate for both the Outlook and Range cases is 7%. With the complexity associated with the extension of bonus deprecation and the normal changes to our capital expenditures flowing into rate base, we felt it would be helpful to provide a more fulsome reconciliation of rate base changes. Please turn to page eight. For 2015, we ended the year with $329 million of additional rate base from pole loading capital expenditures. As I mentioned earlier, the extension of bonus for 2015 is lost in the rounding. We estimate the impact of bonus depreciation to be about $300 million in 2016 and $700 million in 2017 relative to our prior forecast. The incremental additions to rate base from a pole loading account activity is about $600 million in 2016 and about $700 million in 2017. In effect, the impact of bonus is offset by the change in the pole loading rate base. Net, net, net, relative to our prior forecast, rate base increases $300 million in 2016 and $100 million in 2017. Lastly, we plan to update our capital spending and rate base forecasts through 2020 when we file our next general rate case in early September. Please turn to page nine. Today, we introduced 2016 earnings guidance with a midpoint of $3.91 per share with a range of plus or minus $0.10 per share. For SCE, we start with the rate base forecast of $25.1 billion shown on page 7. The rate base math yields earnings of $3.81 per share. While a number of positive variance in 2015 may not recur in 2016, we do expect additional earnings contribution from the energy efficiency of $0.05 per share. We also anticipate incremental productivity and financing benefits of $0.17 per share. This implies earnings of $4.09 per share at SCE. Lastly, we deduct $0.18 per share for holding company costs with no range. In the past, I've talked about holding company costs of roughly $0.15 per year and, on our last call, we pointed out that the sale of Edison Capital would eliminate the earnings contribution this business provided. The $0.10 per share loss for 2015 included $0.06 of income from Edison Capital. The increase over 2015 relates primarily to higher financing costs. Please turn to page 10. The last slide reinforces our view that EIX has one of the better opportunities among large cap utilities for rate base, earnings, and dividend growth. Thanks, and I'll now turn the call over to the operator to moderate the Q&A.
Operator:
Thank you. Our first question coming from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith of UBS. Your line open.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Hi, good afternoon, and congratulations.
Theodore F. Craver, Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Great. So first, Ted, let's start with your opening comments on the call at the services side of the business. I'd be curious, as you see that scaling, you've done some acquisitions here, what kind of earnings power could we'd be looking at over the years? What kind of contributions and when do you see that happening?
Theodore F. Craver, Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
It's a great question and words were chosen pretty carefully to indicate. At this point, we want to try to do more in the testing side, make sure that we actually think that we've got a business here that really makes sense and that is scalable. It's that last part that I think we're spending most of our time on now. Assuming it's scalable and assuming we can make those kinds of investments that would really allow us to fully capture the opportunity, to be relevant to a company our size, we've generally thought that the suite of businesses on the Edison Energy side, so not just energy services stuff I spent a lot of my comments on, but really the whole group of companies there, this probably got to be, just as a general rule of thumb, I'd say it's got to be somewhere in the 10% to be significant or meaningful to a company our size. So I think, we want to see steady progress in that direction. We want to see that these things are capable of actually scaling to that size. But assuming that things continue on in the path at least we see in these very early days, that's the type of magnitude that we would be looking for.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Got it. Excellent. And turning to the numbers a little bit, just as a follow-up quickly, can you elaborate a little bit more, Jim, on the rate base offset here on 2015, just as you think about the number being supposedly less than you had initially supposed or at least thrown out there? What's the exact accounting there?
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
So, there's a couple of things going on. Bonus depreciation did not have impact in 2015 because of the items that I ticked through. There's a number of things that really offset it, the biggest piece being the proration bonus depreciation in the first year and the overlap of those that float from 2014 into 2015 that we had already accounted for. And the biggest thing here is the pole loading program. We picked up a little over $300 million of rate base from pole loading that was not included in our prior forecast that we included now based on our year-end review and that's the biggest offset for 2015. And you can see bonus growing in 2016 and 2017 as you expect. It would be at 50% and it reaches up to $700 million impact by 2017. But really what's happening in the pole loading program in a sense is offsetting the bonus depreciation and it gets up to – pole loading gets up to $700 million. And so, the only changes really going on are the small changes in and around what's happening with FERC and a little bit of the CPUC. So, we do have an increase in rate base, ultimately through 2016 and 2017, but the bonus depreciation is offset by the pole loading program. So, page 8, if you don't have it there, really kind of describes the full details of how rate base changed over this three-year period and I think it's probably the most helpful tool.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Indeed. Thank you.
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
All right, Julien.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question coming from the Jonathan Arnold of Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Yeah. Good afternoon, guys.
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Hey, Jonathan.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Just a quick one, follow-up on the pole loading. And I think you mentioned the year-end review, Jim. Can you just talk us through a little bit how that processed and it seems like you would have known about this when we can kind of met you at EEI, for example. So, I was just curious kind of how it sort of changed so much.
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
It's a darn good question. In going through the general rate case decision, there was some confusion over how it actually operate and it came after further review in discussion that we were picking up – there was no limit to capital expenditures from the inception of the program through 2015. And the actual final decision included, really for all intention purposes, an estimate of pole loading based on some preliminary work. And because we were able to true up for actual capital expenditures, that delta fell out when we went through and reviewed it in more detail. So, as you recall, as we were going through the guidance as we got into the third quarter, I think for all intention purposes, we are so focused on repair deductions in getting all that accounting right and understanding it, that we didn't fully appreciate what was happening with pole loading, and so we picked it up as far as our fourth quarter accounting enclosure.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. Thanks for that. And then just on the $0.18 drag, the parent and other for 2016, would you – in terms of getting a sense of how much these other businesses are a drag on numbers today, obviously, hopefully, there'll potentially be an opportunity at some point, how much of that $0.18 is associated with investments you're making in early stage businesses? If you weren't making them would be there...
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. No, it's a good question. And what's happened in the last couple of year, Edison Capital, the sell down on that portfolio has been masking some of the ongoing costs that are occurring at the holding company. And for all intents and purposes, the change, I mentioned in my comments that we've guided people that the holding company cost on an annual basis taking out Edison Capital had been running at about $0.15 and that we bumped that up to $0.18. And the delta is primarily financing cost, not Edison Energy.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. And do you see the Edison Energy costs kind of ticking higher before the net kind of comes – moves in the other direction, I guess?
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
We're going to grow the businesses, but we also expect earnings from the businesses, too. So that, we'll have to see how it plays out going forward, and you can see we didn't have growth year-over-year from Edison Energy and we acquired three businesses. They have ongoing earnings. So our goal ultimately would be a source of earnings not use. So we'll have to see how things develop as we move down the road here.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. Great. And one other topic, we read recently that there is kind of a new resource planning regime coming at the PUC out of SB 350 requiring integrated resource plans. Could you talk a little bit about that and how you see it changing how you've operated, if at all?
Theodore F. Craver, Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
I'd like to turn that question over to Pedro.
Pedro J. Pizarro - President & Director, Southern California Edison Co.:
Hey, Jonathan. It's Pedro Pizarro. How are you?
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Good. Thank you.
Pedro J. Pizarro - President & Director, Southern California Edison Co.:
So, SB 350, the bill that implemented the 50% renewables by 2030 for the state along with some actions on electric transportation calls for an integrated resource planning process. It's early days for that, Jonathan. It will work its way through the CPUC. Our view of that and view of the legislative intent in it is that it will help provide the PUC and state agencies a macro view, a planning perspective of how all the pieces fit together. We don't see necessarily they're significantly changing the nuts and bolts of the procurement process that we have because it's a pretty well prescribed process for that. I think as we understand the intent, it's more of a macro view on how the pieces will fit together across different kinds of renewable resources, transmission, et cetera, but in reality, the details will be worked out through the PUC process.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Any sense of when you would have to file (38:43) such a plan?
Pedro J. Pizarro - President & Director, Southern California Edison Co.:
I don't know, Jonathan. I know that that's just beginning to work its way through the PUC. I believe there's been some scoping work there. So, probably within a year or so will be the likely timeline.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Great, all right. Thanks a lot.
Pedro J. Pizarro - President & Director, Southern California Edison Co.:
It's not a next month kind of item.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Perfect. Got it. Thank you.
Pedro J. Pizarro - President & Director, Southern California Edison Co.:
Sure.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Lapides of Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Hey, guys. Congrats to a good year and start to 2016. One question for Jim, one for Ted. Jim, just curious the $0.17 at SoCal had in guidance for 2016 for what sounds like a combination of O&M management as well as some financing benefit, how should people think about the that longer-term, meaning after 2016, whether you'll be able to keep that in 2017 or 2018, whether we should assume some of that continues in the 2017, but eventually that all kind of flows back to customers?
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
You're correct. In 2017, it's the third year of the rate case cycle, the three-year rate case cycle, so you would expect us to hopefully retain some portion of that going forward. And 2018 is the general rate case, the test year. So the benefits we've derived over the prior rate case cycle flows to the customers. But again our goal would be to seek additional operational savings. There's more work to be done and we'll continue to focus on that, so we would hope to achieve some level of savings. I'm not going to predict what those might be. And the other piece here, the embedded cost of debt, we wouldn't file a general – our cost of capital proceeding would be effective and we'd litigated in 2017 for 1/1/2018 effectiveness assuming we don't extend it again. And so we would expect in 2018 that we would true up the embedded cost of debt at that time, unless we extend it again. So there is a...
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it....
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
...a number of the things that will be going up and down and we will just have to depend – our purpose here is to try to find additional savings, but a lot of it will toss back in 2018 as we reset our rates.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. And Ted, when you are kind of looking at it and at the distribution resource plan for the future, the different utilities have taken different tacks about how much they want to put out in the public domain or how much they want to put in front of the regulator, about what the spending levels could be. You've been much more robust in terms of kind of spending through 2017 and then spending from 2018 to 2020. How do you expect the regulatory process to play out and when do you expect to get some certainty and actually put some capital to work on this?
Theodore F. Craver, Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
I think probably the short answer is, based on what reaction we've gotten so far on the distribution resources plan, it looks like it's going to be probably more of a discussion in the 2018 to 2020 rate case. It's possible some other things will move in there. I mean, we've had some things such as the Charge Ready program and a few of these, but I think the bulk of the discussion around what those expenditures for modernizing the grid would look like. And...
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
So in other words, that spend in the 2015 to 2017 timeframe, is that spend you don't actually expect to get approval to do the just a couple of hundred million dollar level?
Theodore F. Craver, Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. I've not seen a ready vehicle for being able to make any significant investments in the near term. So absent that, I think most of the discussion would be in the 2018 to 2020 period with the upcoming rate case.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. Thank you, guys. Much appreciated.
Theodore F. Craver, Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
You're welcome.
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thanks, Michael.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question coming from Steve Fleishman of Wolfe Research. Your line is open.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Yeah. Hi, good afternoon, guys. Just, Ted, on the dividend commentary, just wanted to clarify, obviously it's the same payout range of 45% to 55%. I think, the language you used was through the payout range and kind of I think you at some point even said targeting more over time toward the industry averages. Are you kind of implying that you're now targeting at least the high end of this range and may be looking to raise the range over time?
Theodore F. Craver, Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. In probably, as Jim likes to say, my usual way trying to be clear, but vague. I guess I would – what I'm trying to point out are a couple of things. One, just the rate base mechanism that converts into earnings suggests to us this kind of 7-ish, 7% kind of a growth opportunity that would translate through to dividends, but we're at the bottom end of the range based on the midpoint of the 2016 earnings guidance range that we just gave. Depending on where earnings actually come out depending on how we would look at moving our way through the 45% to 55%, we would kind of view that 7% as more of a floor than anything else. So that was the principal point that I was trying to insinuate in there. In terms of whether we're trying to get to a specific point in the 45% to 55%, I clearly was not trying to give a specific point that we were targeting there. 45% to 55%, we feel, has been the appropriate range, given that we have a higher than industry average rate base growth and higher than industry average earnings growth rate. These things kind of ultimately balance together, but for the foreseeable future, we think we'll have a – we'll continue to have a higher than industry average rate base in earnings growth and so the 45% to 55% seems to still be about the right range.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. Great. And then one other question on the productivity and financing savings. Should I assume this is the just ongoing efforts that you guys keep having to reduce costs in the business, if not kind of like one-time in nature in 2016? And thus, all else equal that should continue at least until we get to the next rate case?
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yes.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. Thank you.
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question coming from the line of Praful Mehta of Citigroup. Your line is open.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Thank you. Hi, guys.
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Good afternoon.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Good afternoon. So a quick question on growth rates and it's good to see the 7% through 2017, I guess the importance of DRP is what I'm trying to get to from the 2018 timeframe. What I'm trying to figure out, what proportion, I guess, of your CapEx spend will be DRP related and is there any concern that that DRP component can get pushed out or delayed in terms of CapEx spend for the next cycle?
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
It's a darn good question. We've said repeatedly that we think the capital expenditures are going to be in that $4 billion plus or $4-ish billion range for the foreseeable future and all I can give you until we file our 2018 GRC is a sense that part of the component that could push the spending higher is DRP, but this year will be important – the balance of this year gathering from the PUC, what they're thinking about the DRP we will include in our GRC an appropriate level. And there are some other things that are pluses and minuses. Ted mentioned it. I had it in my script. We've got the Charge Ready program. It's flowing through. That's on a separate track and we need to get through the Phase 1 before we can add the additional – potentially up to $300 million of capital expenditures for that program. I also said, we didn't have any storage-related expenditures in there. So, there's a number of things that are in the mix, and when you get into a GRC, you take a look at all the factors, you want to make sure that your rates are appropriate that you're not putting up – pushing out the other edge for what you can afford from an affordability perspective. So, we'll take all those things into consideration, and, of course, we're going to pass back the benefits that we've realized in the current GRC cycle, and so we will have to see how all things work out. So it's hard to predict beyond that 4-plus-ish range going forward until we actually file the GRC in September.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Got you. Thanks, Jim. And just quickly a much more detailed question, but one of the offsets, I guess, you mentioned the bonus depreciation with this working cash. Can you just give us some context of what it is, and how do you see that like in future years? Is that a component in like 2016, 2017 as well, and what's the kind of size or order of magnitude of working cash?
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Well, that's a long answer. But if I could simplify, as a company, we invest cash and it has to do with when you make ultimately payments and we have this part of the GRC, if you'd like to read all about it, there's a section in the GRC filing that's called the lead-lag study. And as a result of changes, as a result of bonus, it affected the lead-lag study and provided essentially more rate base for us. And I'm going to stop there, unless you want the gory details, which I'm going to lose my ability pretty quickly. But if you want more details, we'll be happy to take you through it after the call and we'll give you some more information.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Got you. That'll be helpful. Thanks, Jim. I appreciate it.
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Okay.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question coming from the line of Ali Agha of SunTrust. Your line is open.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
Thank you. Good afternoon.
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Good afternoon, Ali.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
Hey, Jim or Ted, when you talk about this potential run-rate of CapEx $4 billion plus annually going forward. If you kind of reverse that with the cash flow benefits, I guess, from bonus depreciation, how do you look at your capacity to wrap up that CapEx before you run into, say, issuing new equity or before rate impacts get too big in your mindful customers? What kind of, I guess, cushion do you have, if you had the opportunity to go above $4 billion and still not have to issue equity and still keep the rate impact? What do you think is fairly reasonable?
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Well. It's a tough question. That's really a financially modeling one. And you have to take in other factors, too. You have to look at debt capacity at the utility, how much short-term debt you could use. You can look at debt capacity at the holding company and there are just factors that you're balancing accounts, how it changes your cash. As you know, now we're fairly over collected in our balancing accounts. So you have to look at all these things and then crank that through the model in terms of what you're trying to do in terms of capital expenditures and then how you're targeting rate base and then rate growth. So it's a very complicated set of factors that the important thing the management team here will do between now and September is try to get all these dials just right and as we prepare for and file our 2018 GRC. So it's not a satisfactory answer, but there is just so many components to go into it.
Theodore F. Craver, Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Ali, this is Ted. I think one piece that we have said at various points with investors is that the high-level and without getting lost too much in any specifics for one year versus another, things are in equilibrium, assuming around this 50% equity debt capital structure and around a 45% to 55% dividend payout. You're about in equilibrium when you have long-term growth in the 6% to 8% range. You start getting much higher than that, it starts getting – you need other things to help out. And in the past, when we had an extremely high growth rate, when we were in that 10% to 12% we did have a number of unusual things. That's where the global tax settlement deal really helped us out, bonus depreciation, and those types of things. Absent those, we would have really run too hot and we would have to issue equity. The other part that you mentioned, which I think is really worth of emphasizing again here, increasingly, I think the focus is to try to really hold the line on customer rates. If we look at the long-term trajectory, the history here, last 20 years, we've actually managed to keep customer rates at or below the rate of inflation, and we definitely want to at least continue that. If anything, we'd like to be able to have rates stay flat. But fundamentally, our goal is to try to keep it more around the rate of inflation or lower. If you get too hot a growth rate in here, especially given the relatively modest growth in energy consumption, you're going to really put pressure on rates. So that becomes, as much as anything else, kind of the governor on what we want to have in the way of growth. So, customer rates, equity, long-term growth rate all of that kind of boils down to you want to focus to stay somewhere in this kind of 6% to 8% range. Get much hotter than that, you're going to have issue equity or have pressure on rates.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
Okay, very helpful. Second question, with regards to where we stand on SONGS, just to understand the process, now it appears we're really waiting for the ALJ decision and that sets the clock with regards to the Commission or Board, et cetera. Is that it or are anything else pending or anything else you can point to for us to try to monitor this from our vantage point?
Adam S. Umanoff - Executive Vice President & General Counsel:
This is Adam Umanoff, the General Counsel at EIX. There really isn't anything else we can point you to. There is a request for rehearing and their petitions for modification that are pending. Until the ALJ rules on the petitions for modification, and that goes up to the Commission, and until the Commission rules on the request for rehearing, there is really no other action to consider.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
Understood. Thank you.
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Okay, Ali.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question coming from the line of Ashar Khan of Visium. Your line is open.
Ashar Khan - Visium Asset Management LP:
Good afternoon and congrats. Jim, as I guess one thing which we are trying to fathom is everything is now trading on 2018, and if I'm correct, you mentioned you will provide the 2018 rate base in September when you file the rate case, but I just wanted to get a couple of things right. So, you said, if you spend about $4 billion, that adds to approximately like $2 billion of rate base and that should allow you to keep your 7% EPS CAGR or rate base CAGR going from 2017 to 2018. Is that correct, that's what I heard?
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
So, just a clarification, the 7% CAGR was from 2015 through 2017.
Ashar Khan - Visium Asset Management LP:
Okay.
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Since we don't have any other numbers out there, we're just giving you the indication of $4 billion-ish is the appropriate level of capital expenditures going beyond 2017.
Ashar Khan - Visium Asset Management LP:
But $4 billion is equal to $2 billion in rate base, right? That's the correct math?
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
It is a rough rule of thumb, yes.
Ashar Khan - Visium Asset Management LP:
Okay. And secondly, you also alluded to, I just want to mention, if I got it right is that, you do expect the efficiency savings, the savings that you have like $0.17 right now, productivity and financing benefits, you don't expect them to go to zero in 2018. You expect there to be some level, you don't know what, probably not as high as $0.17, but there should be some level of those savings still there in the next rate cycle, is that fair?
Jim Scilacci - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
That would be our hope.
Ashar Khan - Visium Asset Management LP:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. That was the last question. I will now turn the call back to Mr. Cunningham.
Scott S. Cunningham - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thanks very much, everyone, for participating. And don't hesitate to call us, Investor Relations, if you have any follow-up questions. Thanks and good evening.
Operator:
Thank you. And that concludes today's conference. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Scott Cunningham - Vice President, Investor Relations Theodore Craver - Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer James Scilacci - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Pedro Pizarro - President, Southern California Edison Adam Umanoff - Executive Vice President and General Counsel
Analysts:
Stephen Byrd - Morgan Stanley Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Hugh Wynne - Bernstein Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse Shar Pourreza - Guggenheim Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs Ali Agha - SunTrust Greg Oro - Barclays Praful Mehta - Citigroup
Operator:
Good afternoon, and welcome to the Edison International third quarter 2015 financial teleconference. My name is Brandon. I will be your operator today. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Scott Cunningham, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Cunningham, you may begin your conference.
Scott Cunningham:
Thanks, Brandon, and welcome, everyone. Our principal speakers will be Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Ted Craver; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Jim Scilacci. Also here are other members of the management team. Materials supporting today's call are available at www.edisoninvestor.com. The key items are Form 10-Q, Ted and Jim's prepared remarks and the presentation that accompanies Ted's comments, Jim's comments. Tomorrow afternoon we will distribute our regular business update presentation. During this call we will make forward-looking statements about the future outlook for Edison International and its subsidiaries. Actual results could differ materially from current expectations. Important factors that could cause different results are set forth in our SEC filings. Please read these carefully. The presentation includes certain outlook assumptions as well as reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measures. During Q&A please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. I'll now turn the call over to Ted.
Theodore Craver:
Thank you, Scott, and good afternoon, everyone. Today we reported core earnings of $1.16 per share. While this is well below last year's third quarter core earnings of $1.52 per share, year-over-year third quarter earnings comparisons, as was the case with the first two quarters of the year, are not very useful. This is because of the way we have had to recognize revenue with the delay in SCE's 2015 General Rate Case and how we are accounting for the recently released proposed decision. We have said in the past that we would provide 2015 earnings guidance when we received a final GRC decision. However, with the noise in our quarterly earnings numbers, we thought it a disservice to investors to have them guessing about 2015 earnings. Therefore, we decided it was best to provide 2015 guidance at this time today. So today we introduced core earnings guidance for 2015 of $3.77 to $3.87 per share. This guidance has some key assumptions that Jim will review in his comments. Of course, should the final GRC decision differ substantially from the proposed decision, we may have to revisit our guidance. We plan to return to our normal practice of providing annual earnings guidance for 2016, when we report full year 2015 results in late February. One more comment on the General Rate Case. While we feel the GRC proposed decision is overall generally constructive, SCE identified several important issues in its October 8 comments to the CPUC. Jim will cover most of these, but I want to touch on one in particular. The proposed decision attempts to recover certain tax repair benefits that were reflected in earnings in 2012 to 2014 through a permanent reduction to rate base of $344 million. We consider this retroactive ratemaking and a potential violation of Internal Revenue Service rules. We are hopeful that the CPUC will correct their legal error. If the Commission were to adopt the proposed decision's retroactive treatment of repair deductions, then SCE would be forced to write-off some or all of the $380 million regulatory asset related to future recovery of taxes. The final decision on SCE's General Rate Case is currently scheduled for the November 5 CPUC meeting. I assume most, if not all of you, are aware of the Administrative Law Judge's proposed decision released yesterday on penalties related to SONGS ex parte communications. In short, the ALJ found in her PD that there were eight communications that were late reported to the Commission, and found two Rule 1.1 violations. The PD proposed a $16.74 million penalty on Southern California Edison. There are additional procedural steps yet to come on this issue, but we are thankful that this appears to be moving towards resolution. This has been a painful episode, including for Edison, and I feel obliged to make several comments on it. First, I want to set the record straight on some misconceptions that are constantly being repeated. Contrary to the many reports, SCE has not engaged in, improper talks or communications with regulators, related to the SONGS OII. The important distinction is that the Judge found that we didn't report in a timely manner permissible communications with regulators. The communications themselves were not found to be improper or illegal under the ex parte rules, as certain parties have repeatedly and wrongly asserted. In our recent filing, we maintained that seven of these eight communications were either not required or outright not allowed to be reported under the ex parte rules. The difference of opinion is a direct result of ambiguity in California's overly complicated ex parte rules. Ambiguous rules require the parties to do their best to interpret them in practice, which creates a risk. We believe the rules need to be clarified and simplified, so that we do not find ourselves underwriting the risk of after-the-fact reviews. It is worth noting that even the ALJ concluded in her PD that the ex parte rules were ambiguous, and cited that as a mitigating factor in calculating the penalty. As I said in an earnings call a few quarters ago, we look forward to working with President Picker to clarify the ex parte rules soon. Many of the matters we deal with in our business involve tough judgment calls in contentious proceedings under ambiguous rules and conditions. We don't particularly like it, but it comes with territory. We expect controversy. We also expect a great deal of ourselves and our employees, because we provide such an essential service to society and we rely on the public trust. That is why it is important to do the right thing. We expect nothing less of ourselves. We want to earn the trust of our customers, the public and the CPUC, based on our conduct. While we aren't perfect and there will be times when we fail to live up to our own expectations and those of others, we must and we do set high standards of conduct for ourselves. We have an obligation to be transparent and open, and we will redouble our efforts to conduct ourselves in this manner. We will also work hard to support President Picker's efforts to clarify and improve the current poorly crafted ex parte rules. Strong efforts on both fronts will go a long way to avoiding a repeat of this in the future. On a brighter note, we were pleased to report last week the settlement reached with Nuclear Electric Insurance Limited, known as NEIL, on insurance claims related to the shutdown of the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station. The settlement is for $400 million and covers all insurance claims by the three owners of SONGS related to the events leading to the shutdown. All necessary approvals have been received from the owners and NEIL. This is another important step in implementing the SONGS settlement, approved unanimously by the CPUC last November. Consistent with the SONGS settlement, insurance recoveries will first pay associated legal costs, and then 95% will be allocated to customers and 5% to the owners. SCE customers will receive its allocation as a credit to the purchased power balancing account known as ERRA. Assuming payment from NEIL is received in the fourth quarter, then customer benefits should show up in their bills as a reduction in purchased power costs in 2016. The larger claim against Mitsubishi Heavy Industries for the failed design of the replacement steam generators continues to proceed under binding arbitration through the International Chamber of Commerce. We still expect a decision on that case by late 2016. SCE's share of the NEIL recoveries and any MHI recoveries, including recovery of legal costs, will be treated as non-core. That is, they will not be included in our core earnings. There is still much procedurally to be accomplished before the SONGS OII and related matters can be completed. We are hopeful that this is all moving toward a conclusion this year or early next. We continue to believe that no new information has been presented to suggest that the SONGS settlement was anything other than independently-negotiated that warrants continued full support by the CPUC and customers. I'd like to turn to a couple of items that address some of our longer-term growth opportunities, starting with SCE's Distribution Resources Plan or DRP. Since the July 1 filing, we have seen tremendous interest among stakeholders, and some encouraging early support from a number of parties on our conceptual long-term approach. Appropriately, there will be concerns about cost and the pace of implementation of building a flexible 21st Century grid as outlined in our DRP filing. We are awaiting a more definitive schedule for the balance of the proceeding, which the CPUC indicates will be completed next spring. This should give SCE adequate time to incorporate DRP elements into its 2018 to 2020 General Rate Case, which we expect to file in the fall of 2016. Moving on, the California legislature provided its own form of support for Governor Brown's low-carbon goals and the DRP with the passage of Senate Bill 350. The Governor signed this bill into law earlier this month. Senate Bill 350 will move renewables targets to 50% of delivered energy from qualifying renewable resources by 2030. The current renewables target is 33% of delivered power by 2020. The new law provides some valuable implementation flexibility that will help us meet the goals at the lowest reasonable cost to our customers. It also provided legislative support for future utility investment in transportation electrification. This is one of the long-term growth opportunities that we see for Southern California Edison, just as we see similar opportunities around electric vehicle charging infrastructure and energy storage, as complements to SCE's wires-focused investment strategy. One final comment. I continue to believe that we have an attractive multi-year dividend opportunity that complements a strong earnings growth outlook. The GRC proposed decision, the DRP and SB 350 are all data points that underscore SCE's growth potential. This in turn reaffirms the dividend growth opportunity I've discussed on recent earnings calls. We recognize that for a few years now we have been below our targeted payout ratio of 45% to 55% of SCE's earnings. We remain committed to moving well into that target range in steps overtime. Hopefully, we will be well along the way to resolution on both the SONGS OII and the GRC before the Board's usual December consideration of a dividend increase. Even if both are not fully resolved by then, I don't see it impacting our ability to continue to implement our dividend policy. That concludes my comments. Now, Jim will provide his financial report.
James Scilacci:
Thanks, Ted. Good afternoon, everyone. I plan on covering third quarter and year-to-date results, SCE's 2015 General Rate Case proposed decision, capital spending and rate base forecast, a few other financial topics and guidance. Please turn to Page 2 of the presentation. Let me first address revenue recognition for the first six months and then for the third quarter. For the first two quarters of this year, we recorded revenues largely based on 2014 authorized revenues, which included a revenue deferral of $85 million or $0.16 per share related to incremental flow-through tax repair deductions. Our accounting was based on management judgment that these revenues would likely be refunded to customers. Having received the proposed decision, we updated our estimate of probable refunds to customers, as part of our third quarter reporting. This in turn lowered third quarter revenues. The GRC-related revenue reduction was $0.42 per share. This is comprised of the two elements shown under key earnings drivers at the right of the slide. As Ted noted, earnings comparisons will not be useful, until we receive a final GRC decision and report full year 2015 earnings. Of course, if the final GRC decision is different than the proposed decision, then there could be other related adjustments. With that background, I'd like to walk through the key earnings drivers, starting with SCE. There are two key earnings drivers of the $0.35 per share decline in SCE's earnings. First, as I mentioned before, we recorded revenue largely based on the GRC proposed decision, including a catch-up adjustment. Second, there were favorable cost and tax benefits realized in 2014, which did not recur in 2015. Looking at revenue, I've highlighted the $0.42 per share related to the GRC proposed decision. $0.20 of this revenue reduction is from the flow-through tax repair benefits to customers with a related offset in the form of higher tax repair deductions. The remaining decrease in GRC revenues are $0.22 per share. Also we continue to see revenue increases from a growing FERC rate base and higher operating cost. This is a positive $0.02 per share. Lastly, please note that the revenue variances is a net of SONGS for comparability. The SONGS detail are footnoted. Moving to the O&M. SCE had $0.03 per share in higher costs this quarter versus the third quarter of last year. This includes $0.01 per share of additional severance at SCE. Depreciation is $0.02 per share higher, primarily due to transmission and distribution investments. Net financing cost provided a $0.02 per share benefit, primarily due to higher earnings from AFUDC. Turning to taxes. I've already covered the $0.20 per share for the 2015 repair deductions. Most of the remaining variance relates to the $0.11 per share in earnings from incremental repair deductions recorded last year. In all, SCE's third quarter core earnings are $1.19 per share, down $0.35 from last year. For the holding company, costs are $0.01 per share higher than last year, largely on lower income from Edison Capital. I'll come back to Edison Capital later in my remarks. Non-core earnings in the quarter of $0.13 per share largely relate to EME bankruptcy, tax benefits and insurance recoveries. Please turn to Page 3. We've added this slide to simplify the explanation of third quarter core earnings. As you can see, the difference on this slide versus the prior slide is that we netted out the impact of lower revenues and income tax benefits related to repair deductions in 2015. As indicated on this slide, the two key drivers are the lower revenues based on the GRC proposed decision of $0.22 and the $0.11 of 2014 incremental repair deductions. That gets us to $0.33 of the $0.35 reduction in third quarter SCE quarter earnings. Please turn to Page 4. For year-to-date earnings, GRC-related revenue is $0.58 per share or lower, reflecting the $0.42 for the third quarter and the $0.16 for the first half of the year. Again, this is a mix of lower tax repair revenues $0.36 per share, which is offset in taxes and the third quarter revenue adjustment of $0.22 per share. Most of the costs items continue their trend and for the year-to-date we also have higher depreciation and O&M and lower financing costs from higher AFUDC earnings. You will also see the significant impact in both years related to changes in uncertain tax positions and lower tax benefits in other areas. Last year, we also had the generator settlements and other items that are absent this year. All in, year-to-date SCE core earnings are $3.31 per share, down $0.27 from last year. Page 5 has a similar waterfall chart of year-to-date core earnings. Please turn to Page 6. This slide compares the key revenue and rate base differences between the 2015 GRC proposed decision and SCE's updated request. The revenue adjustments are recorded in the third quarter; largely reflect the three quarters' worth of proposed decision's authorized annual revenue. Please turn to Page 7. This slide summarizes the most important issues identified in SCE's comments on the proposed decision. Ted has already talked about the tax repair deduction issue. Next is the customer deposit issue. Since the 2003 GRC, the CPUC has treated customer deposits as a rate base offset. However, PG&E and San Diego Gas & Electric do not have this adjustment. The third item is a proposed reduction in the pole loading program. The proposed decision did not approve approximately $100 million of capital, which has a 2015 rate base impact of $73 million. Putting aside the rate base adjustment for repair deductions, the proposed decision would adopt 92% of our requested capital. This is higher than previous GRCs, and of course, this percentage could change with a final decision. I will note two other key issues. The principal one is incentive compensation. The proposed decision recommended significant reductions in authorized revenues related to incentive compensation for the entire workforce, even though the jointly sponsored SCE and ORA compensation study concluded SCE's total compensation is on average 5% below market. We are strong believers in a pay-for-performance compensation philosophy and incentive-based compensation for all employees, not just executives, is a fundamental element of that philosophy. This reduction is larger than experienced in prior cases. Lastly, there is a $10 million disallowance for a contract termination payment dating back to SCE's commercial rooftop solar initiative. We believe the termination payment is reasonable and benefited customers substantially. In accounting for the quarter, the revenue adjustments track the proposed decision except for two items, the tax item and the solar program contract cancellation disallowance. I'll pick this up later when I discuss the rate base forecast and earnings guidance. Please turn to Page 8. Pages 8 and 9 update forecasted capital expenditures and rate base for the GRC proposed decision and known FERC-related capital expenditure changes. SCE is experiencing licensing and permitting delays with a few of its transmission projects, notably the West of Devers project. As a result, the timing of expenditures was moved out beyond 2017. Once SCE files its 2018 GRC application and we update our CapEx and rate base forecasts, these delayed expenditures will appear back in the forecast. The FERC adjustments are shown on the right side of the slide. The balance of reduction is related to the GRC proposed decision, largely infrastructure replacement, inspection and maintenance and nonelectric facility capital projects. Historically, we have shown what we call a request level of capital expenditures and rate base, and a lower range level. As you can see on the charts on Pages 8 and 9, we have replaced the word request with the word outlook. For CPUC capital, we now forecast that we will spend all authorized dollars for 2015 through 2017. For FERC capital, we have continued our practice of reducing outlook expenditures by 12% to arrive at the range level of expenditures. Once we file our 2018 general rate case, we will revert back to using both request and range monikers. As a reminder, the CPUC capital expenditures do not include any Distribution Resources Plan expenditures. We have asked the commission to approve a memorandum account, so we can track costs associated with the DRP spending. So if we were to spend all authorized CPUC amounts provided in the GRC proposed decision, then we would need to have the DRP memorandum account in place in order to be allowed to seek cost recovery in the next GRC. Beyond 2017, we still believe that long-term capital spending will continue to run at least $4 billion annually, and spending could be higher depending upon CPUC approval in future rate cases. Please turn to Page 9. Based on our revised capital spending forecast from the prior slide, we have updated our rate base forecast. The updated rate base forecast yields compound annual growth rates of 8% from 2015 through 2017. The prior forecast was 7% to 9% annually. Consistent with our accounting for the proposed decision, we have not factored in the proposed $344 million reduction in rate base related to the disputed tax repair deduction issue in this forecast. If the final GRC decision adopts the rate base adjustment, then each of the years rate base would decline by the adjustment amount. Please turn to Page 10. As expected, the CPUC cost of capital mechanism did not trigger any change in allowed ROE for 2016. Though the spot Moody's Baa Utility Index rate moved quite a bit, the moving average dampened the full-year impact. Starting October 1, we began the new measurement period, starting with the moving average where the spot rate ended at September 30 at 5.45%. We are currently scheduled to file our next cost of capital application in April 2016. Please turn to Page 11. This page covers a handful of other financial topics. SCE's weighted-average common equity component for regulatory purposes was 49.5% at September 30, increasing from 48.9% we reported in the second quarter. This excess equity gives us additional financial flexibility. Next, you will recall that SCE's fuel and purchased power balancing account, or ERRA, had been deeply under collected as recently as yearend 2014. With a previous rate increase, SONGS settlement refunds, lower natural gas costs and the balancing account has moved to an over-collected position of $112 million as of September 30. When SCE receives the NEIL settlement proceeds, expected in the fourth quarter, they will be credited to ERRA. Turning to the holding company, last month we renewed an EIX holding company shelf registration to provide us flexibility to access the capital markets as needed for liquidity and general corporate purposes. EIX commercial paper outstanding was $738 million at September 30, compared to a total EIX credit facility of $1.18 billion. Also, earlier this month we reached an agreement to sell our remaining affordable housing portfolio at Edison Capital. Terms of the transaction have not been disclosed pending final due diligence and negotiations. In any case, the amounts are not material and the transaction will be treated as non-core. For the past few years, Edison Capital's earnings have helped offset holding company costs. Please turn to Page 12. This page provides detail of our 2015 earnings guidance that Ted discussed. We have followed the same approach we have used for the last several years. We start with SCE rate base earnings. We used the $23.1 billion weighted average rate base outlook as shown on Page 10. Based on SCE's authorized capital structure and flat share count, that gets us the $3.56 per share of rate base earnings. We then identify $0.41 per share of SCE items that take earnings higher. The principal item is the $0.31 per share revision to uncertain tax positions recorded in the second quarter. We have also discussed AFUDC being a net positive factor for the year, rather than just offsetting costs not recovered by general rate case revenues. We continue to estimate $0.05 of energy efficiency earnings in the fourth quarter as previously disclosed. We have recorded severance costs of $0.03 year-to-date. The balance of all other items is a positive penny a share, including the ex parte proposed penalty. We have estimated full-year holding company costs at $0.15, getting us to the midpoint of $3.82 per share. To the right we have included key guidance assumptions. We had excluded the shareholder portion of the NEIL settlement proceeds and related litigation costs. We consider these revenues non-core. Our guidance tracks our accounting for the GRC proposed decision, so it excludes the $344 million rate base adjustment for repair deductions and the solar termination payment disallowance. That concludes my comments. I will turn the call over to the operator to moderate the Q&A.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Stephen Byrd with Morgan Stanley.
Stephen Byrd:
Just want to follow-up on a couple of things in terms of spending outlook. The memorandum account for the GRP spend that you'd like to effect, could you talk a little bit procedurally just about how we should think about the steps to get approval for the memorandum account?
Theodore Craver:
Well, we have actually already filed for it. It was part of the DRP application that's gone in and procedurally the commission then will have to act, and will look at over the SCE folks, any time frame for that Pedro or Maria?
Pedro Pizarro:
This is Pedro Pizarro, not just about the memo account, but procedurally in the DRP filing there is public workshops that are scheduled for the November 9 to November 10, and there the PUC is looking at a broad DRP roadmap for how the DRP proceeding will be faced out in the next three to four years. With respect to the memo account itself I don't think we have a specific timing. We'd expect it would be handled as the proceeding moves along next year.
Stephen Byrd:
And then just follow-up on just thinking about the tax positions you highlighted in 2015. There are a number of moving parts in terms of uncertain tax positions and lower tax benefits. On a going forward basis in '16 and beyond without being specific numerically, how should we think about those kinds of moving parts? When do they start to settle down and when will they become less material, if you think future years?
James Scilacci:
That's a good question. And it really depends on ultimately how things turn out. I can tell you, for repair deduction, that's been a challenging one for us to forecast accurately. And I wouldn't expect that going forward that you will see potential shareholder benefits from repairs. But there're other tax benefits we realized, so it really comes to how accurate we are forecasting our cost versus what actually occur, so there could be differences both, for or against us. And the other related piece is O&M benefit, that's the other companion we've been talking about this whole time, where I think in the proposed decision it was clear that, it left open the door that there could be incremental O&M savings that we could realize and we've said repeatedly that we will continue to look for benefits to reduce our cost for our customers.
Stephen Byrd:
And as you think about those moving parts, in terms of the magnitude or volatility, I know it's hard to have a crystal ball to think about that. But do you see the same degree of potential volatility in terms of movements in these accounts or are there reasons why that volatility might be reduced in future years?
James Scilacci:
I think my answer around that was, around repair deductions, where I was talking about specifically, the proposed decision, I think effectively we'll probably capture those benefits. And there is also a balancing account that has been set up for our pole loading program, which a lot of the repair deductions are rising from. That's why these repair benefits have increased so dramatically over the last three years. So with that balancing account, there's not an opportunity for earnings or losses associated with differences from forecast. A lot of complexity there, sorry for all the -- there is still more to be written here until we get a final decision.
Operator:
Our next question is from Michael Weinstein with UBS.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
It's Julien here. So just following up here on the transmission reduction in the rate base, can you elaborate a little bit on nature of the issues in pushing up this CapEx, part one. And perhaps part two there, you talk about a $4 billion number, but is that fair to say that there might be some higher oscillations in that, call it, rounded $4 billion number in the '18 period now that you've pushed out this transmission CapEx. Just trying to get a sense of exactly what's going on in terms of those pieces.
James Scilacci:
So I'll just point you to Page 8 in the investor deck, which has the capital expenditures, and it provides the detail of the amounts that are changing. In terms of the reasons, what my script falls up on was these are permitting and scheduling delays and the principal the largest one is the West of Devers project. There is some other smaller ones, but West of Devers is a rather large project and we're just seeing it slip out in time. And I'll pause and look over to Pedro and Maria to see if there is anything else to add?
Pedro Pizarro:
All right.
James Scilacci:
So that's what you've got. Now as far as the above $4 billion --
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Just to clarify, if you will, you guys have historically talked about hitting a $4 billion CapEx pace consistently, does this now mean that you have call it a 2018 number that you're not closing here that would be call it materially above that $4 billion figure to reflect, call it a one-time true up on the CapEx for transmission?
Theodore Craver:
Yes. And this is going to be a difficult one, because we don't have information in the public domain beyond '17. So I'm just going to touch a couple of items that we see that are changing both up and down to be fair. So clearly the DRP is a big element of potential new expenditures. We've provided information at public domain and you can see there is substantial ramp up of expenditures since '17 and as you go into '18, but those expenditures will be subject to review as part of our general rate case process. There are other things that are going up that would include our -- and we have an opportunity through the storage program. We have an opportunity through electric vehicle charging program. And those are still working their way through. And all three of those just to emphasize are not included in the numbers we're seeing here today, so there is some potential upside depending upon how those proceedings progress. On the down side, there is the transmission issue is they're still going to be -- we'll have to see where that goes, as you fit each some of this larger projects and we've ramped up in transmission area, then we ramp back down as they're finished and we'll get to a steady state of capital expenditures. We will just have to see how load growth goes that could be up or down depending upon the health of the service territory and the penetration of distributed generation resources. So I'll leave it there. There is ups and downs. There is probably more of a bias that we see to the upside, because of some of these large projects.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
And just to clarify, in the transmission CapEx, just a tad bit more, is there any risk around, obviously you had the competitive project allocated. Is there any other moving piece that we should be aware of in the transmission bucket that could develop one way or another here? Obviously, the permitting was kind of unexpected.
Theodore Craver:
Nothing that would stand out right now, Julien, beside what I told you.
Operator:
Our next question is from Hugh Wynne with Bernstein.
Hugh Wynne:
Jim, I just had some, what I hope are, simple questions on Page7 around the rate case proposed decision. On the left-hand column there, the bottom bullet, the $73 million pole loading capital spending reduction? And then in the parenthetical below that it says $100 million capital expenditure reduction. What is the difference?
James Scilacci:
To one's capital to one's closings, and they don't always line up exactly. And so really, when you think about rate base, it's what's close to plant. So forecast don't line up exactly.
Hugh Wynne:
So they are basically telling you that they want you to spend $73 million more in your spending plan, and that is reflected in closings fulfilling by $100 million.
James Scilacci:
That was reverse. So they've taken out of the -- in the PD, they've take out $100 million of capital expenditures, which translates into $73 million of rate base. So it's lower, not higher.
Hugh Wynne:
And then the second point. What is the bone of contention around the customer deposits?
James Scilacci:
When you look at our forecast, they take the $180 million of customer deposits and reduce our rate base by that amount. And the bone of contentions is if there is not similarity of treatment among the three utilities, we seem to be treated differently, as a result of whatever reason. And then we've had this -- we keep raising this issue in the last several GRCs, and there is inconsistent treatment. We think that's unfair.
Hugh Wynne:
And then, finally, on the first point, I agree with everything you say there in the second bullet that seems like retroactive ratemaking and violation of normalization regulations, et cetera. But presumably the ALJ, who has a law degree, and I don't, has a different view. Could you characterize the different perspectives around this point?
James Scilacci:
Yes, it would be hard to characterize it completely; there was a number of arguments. But I think the simple argument that was made is that they set rates prospectively, so therefore how could it be retroactive ratemaking. We just fundamentally disagree on that point. And so that's something we'll have to figure out hopefully in the final decision that will address this issue. But we'll have to see.
Operator:
Our next question is from Daniel Eggers with Credit Suisse.
Daniel Eggers:
Just on the $80 million of compensation expense that wanted you to get recovery on. Would you find ways to offset that or do you see opportunities to change your compensation structure like the other utilities to mitigate that drag?
James Scilacci:
Well, we'll certainly have to look at it. It was obviously a sensitive issue in oral argument in our comments. And we'll have to see what the final decision is. And we'll have to see how it unfolds. Hopefully, they turn it around.
Daniel Eggers:
And then, I guess, on the $344 million for this year's guidance, if you didn't get that or if the ALJ found against you, what is your course legally to address that, given the IRS issues and how would that affect the '15 guidance as you laid it out today?
James Scilacci:
In the course of action here, and I know Pedro talked about in the oral arguments and in our comments in the proposed decision that retroactive ratemaking, then you have a legal recourse. And there is a potential, as Ted said in his script, of a IRS issue, it's a normalization violation. So there is two different paths here that you might pursue. Hopefully, the Commission addresses that as part of the final decision, but we will have to see. So if it were adopted, and I think it was clearly in my prepared remarks, you'd have to take the $344 million off the rate base numbers for '15 through '17 to get back to an adjusted rate base approach.
Operator:
Our next question is from Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim.
Shar Pourreza:
Most my questions were answered. There is a likely delay in the SONGS OII into early 2016, is there any impact to you providing 2016 guidance?
James Scilacci:
I guess, off the top of my head, and I'll hesitate and look at my collogues here. If we have a GRC decision, I think that's the critical piece we need to move ahead in providing guidance for '16. But I'll look at everybody else, I don't see the SONGS being a factor that would slow us down. And unless if they reject the whole decision, and maybe I have to go back and rethink it, but I think if we had a 2015 GRC final decision, we'd find a way to give guidance for '16.
Shar Pourreza:
And then just on MHI, we're obviously reaching some sort of a conclusion by hopefully the end of 2016. Is there any opportunities to give some incremental data points on that or is it just one of those where you get an order, you get a settlement, you'll disclose it at the same time?
James Scilacci:
So I'll pause here and look over to my friend, Adam Umanoff, our General Counsel. Adam any pros of wisdom?
Adam Umanoff:
No. Really we can't provide any additional guidance. We're operating under strict confidentiality rules of the International Chamber of Commerce proceedings. So you'll have to wait for a final decision that's announced publicly.
Operator:
Our next question is from Jonathan Arnold with Deutsche Bank.
Jonathan Arnold:
Couple of quick questions on. As we look forward, Jim, with Edison Capital out of the picture now, is it reasonable to assume that that $0.15 drag from the parent company that you are sharing for 2015, is the kind of number we'd be looking at going forward with no offset or are there other things to think about that?
James Scilacci:
We're a little premature on getting to that point. We'll give you hopefully guidance, when we report full year earnings at the end of February. But clearly what I was trying to indicate in my prepared remarks, that you lose that revenue source and so there might be a little upward pressure at the holding company.
Jonathan Arnold:
And then, secondly, I think you said you booked the impact of the GRC PD through the first three quarters. Is the fourth quarter impact just negative, because it's lower revenue requirement or is there something else I need to think about?
James Scilacci:
I'm looking over my accountants that booked the first three quarters. Anything else in the fourth quarter that would be relevant to what Jonathan's brought up?
Scott Cunningham:
We'll continue to follow the proposed decision, until we get a final decision. And then we'll look at what the terms are and adjust to the final decision.
James Scilacci:
So the guidance, obviously, Jonathan is adjusted to reflect what we think, based on the proposed decision the fourth quarter will be.
Jonathan Arnold:
And I guess, just finally, then should we read into the fact that your booking earnings according to the PD, apart from the tax adjustment item is that your best estimate of whether it shakes out, on your own accounting basis currently that you likely don't improve too much on the PD, but you do when this one issue. Is that how we should think about you giving guidance that way?
James Scilacci:
I think our view was, we felt it was important to get something out there as a stakeholder, because there is going to be -- if you wait until you get a final decision, it's really not clear that what it's going to be and we wouldn't get yearend earnings out until February. We felt that it was better for investors, as Ted said in his prepared remarks, to give some clarity. And I think we gave through our guidance, you'll have enough pieces of information to make adjustments accordingly. And so we felt that was the clearest and fairest way for everybody to do this.
Jonathan Arnold:
And then just one other topic. Ted, I think you made the comment that you expect to; no, you hope to have the SONGS issues result this year or at worst early next. I just want to be clear that you are talking about the overall issue, including the settlement, not just the penalty piece when you make that comment?
Theodore Craver:
Yes.
Operator:
Our next question is from Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs.
Michael Lapides:
I was just curious, when I look at the data on Page 15 in the 10-Q and kind of the new band for CapEx, and that you've disclosed on the slides. How should we think about how this impacts the timeline to get to a higher payout ratio? And CapEx coming down frees up some cash for the balance sheet in the cash flow statement, by the time you get out to about 2018, 2019 timeframe, you'll have a higher earnings power, you'll have higher cash from operations and at lower CapEx level. Just curious about how you and the Board are thinking about kind of the timeline and the pace prior to get up for the dividend, prior to getting the proposed decision versus going forward?
James Scilacci:
Yes. It's a good question. I guess I would try to respond to it this way. If you kind of pull up from looking at one year versus the next year, any individual year, with just kind of the larger theme, the larger trends, as you know I tried to strike this theme consistently, we expect somewhere in this $4 billion-plus kind of annual CapEx. We expect pretty significant rate base growth. And we expect that as the base gets larger, as the rate base gets larger, we're going to have more cash flow. So we feel that we're going keep a good balance between solid annual CapEx and related earnings from a growing rate base, but cash to move us back in that 45% to 55%. Any given year, any couple of years, you might run a little harder on CapEx, you might run a little slower on CapEx that may give you on the margin a little more room to move on dividends or slow it down a little bit. But fundamentally, I think rather than try to pick it apart year-by-year that's the teeter totter. It's keeping CapEx in that kind of $4-plus billion range and getting back solidly. I think I use the term well within the range of 45% to 55%. So I wouldn't get too wrapped up on any one year movement. Both of those things are going to be really what we're focused on. And we believe as a result, we'll be able to provide investors with a higher than industry average growth rate in earnings and a higher than industry average growth rate in dividends.
Operator:
Our next question is from Ali Agha with SunTrust.
Ali Agha:
Jim, just to be clear on Slide 9, where you've laid out your rate base numbers, new ones '15 through '17. Just to understand the moving parts there once the GRC is finalized, if I am hearing you right, you've already assumed the big tax benefit and $180 million, I believe goes in your favor, if I heard you right. And so if there is going to be any change to these numbers, it's probably to the downside if they stick with the PD or is that further upside that maybe I'm missing here?
James Scilacci:
So what I said was the $180 million, the customer deposits, is already baked into these numbers. This is net of that. And what also, I said, and I think we have it here on the first pull it on the right, the $344 million rate base reduction for the repair deduction is not included in these numbers, is not. And so to the extent, if the commission were to decide to adopt it, then you need to reduce these numbers by the $344 million.
Ali Agha:
But also, if they stick with the PD on the customer deposit, that would be another $180 million reduction?
James Scilacci:
No. I'm sorry. We incorporated the $180 million already.
Ali Agha:
Are you stuck with the PD on the $180 million?
James Scilacci:
Yes. So the only things that we haven't adopted from the PD are the tax issue, the $344 million rate base reduction. And the second thing is the SunPower termination payment for the solar panels. Those are the only two items we have not incorporated.
Ali Agha:
And then secondly on the SONGS process, just to be clear on resolutions, so the PD came out on the ex parte issue and may come up on the December meeting. Should we now expect another PD has to be issued on the petition for modification, and then at some later date that gets picked up by the CPUC or what is exactly the process for dealing with those modification petitions?
James Scilacci:
Adam, you want to take that?
Adam Umanoff:
Sure. And you're right. There are separate petitions for modifications and a request for rehearing, all of which are pending, and for which there has been no decision by the commission. I really can't tell you when to expect a decision. As Ted pointed out, we're hopeful that we'll see a decision later this year or early next year. Once that decision comes out, there will be an opportunity for parties to comment before it is final.
Ali Agha:
But to be clear, Adam, you need to first have a PD, which will set a 30-day clock on those issues?
Adam Umanoff:
Yes, on the petitions for modification, that's right, there will be a PD, a comment period and then a final decision.
Operator:
Our next question is from Greg Oro with Barclays.
Greg Oro:
Back to Page 12, just regarding the AFUDC at $0.07 that it is added back, is that a good number going forward, just as an average, is there a timing issue in there, or maybe I need more of a discussion what that is?
James Scilacci:
Well, we're happy to have a further discussion, but there is a lot of moving parts associated with AFUDC. Historically, the way we've done this over the last several years, we assume that AFUDC earnings offset all the cost that aren't not recovered through the rate making process. There is executive compensation Board related cost, our corporate dues and philanthropy activities. There is a whole bucket of that costs that aren't recovered and we have assumed historically that AFUDC earnings offset those. And what can cause it to go up or down is the balance of what's in the account or the rate. So the rate can go up and down depending upon what's happening at any point in time. So I think for planning purposes, it's probably appropriate to assume that AFUDC will not come out again in the future in terms of providing the benefit and go back to that rate base approach as the core utility source of earnings and a little bit of energy efficiency that we've talked about repeatedly adjusted for the holding company cost to get you to a decent starting point.
Operator:
Our last question is from Praful Mehta with Citigroup.
Praful Mehta:
So I'll be quick, given it's a long call and the last question. So just quickly on the rate base that you've guided to now, if we had to bridge from the last quarter to this quarter in terms of rate base, is it just the CapEx and these GRC adjustments that you've talked about or is there other stuff that we should be thinking about in terms of reaching from last quarter to this quarter rate base?
Theodore Craver:
So the two principal items are the GRC adjustments and the FERC delays. And you can see the dollar amounts of the FERC delays that's shown on Page 9 -- I'm sorry, Page 8, it has both rate base and capital expenditures and the balance is what the commission did not pick up as part of the rate making process. Scott anything else fits in there?
Scott Cunningham:
And probably just remember, as Jim said in his remarks, so the FERC spending is being pushed out, so you would model it later. After the current forecast period, you see it picking up in 2018 and beyond.
Praful Mehta:
And just quickly the final question was on that point itself, which is, you talk about the long-term $4 billion annually. When you say long-term, how long is long-term when you think of it is? Is it a three-year window, five year window, just so we have a sense of what is it?
James Scilacci:
I don't want to be flip and say it is Wall Street long-term. But, I think it is appropriate to think through the 18 generate case cycle.
Operator:
That was the last question. I will now turn the call back to the Mr. Cunningham. End of Q&A
Scott Cunningham:
Thanks, very much, everyone, for participating and don't hesitate to call us if you have any follow-up questions. Thanks and good afternoon.
Operator:
Thank you for participating in today's conference. All lines may disconnect at this time.
Executives:
Scott Cunningham - VP, IR Ted Craver - Chairman, President & CEO Jim Scilacci - EVP & CFO Adam Umanoff - EVP, General Counsel Pedro Pizarro - President of Southern California Edison Company
Analysts:
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Hugh Wynne - Bernstein Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank Travis Miller - Morningstar Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates
Operator:
Welcome to the Edison International Second Quarter 2015 Financial Teleconference. My name is Jaclyn and I will be your operator for today. [Operator Instructions]. I would now like to turn today's call over to Mr. Scott Cunningham, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Cunningham, you may begin your conference.
Scott Cunningham:
Thanks, Jaclyn and good afternoon, everyone. Our principal speakers today will be Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Ted Craver and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Jim Scilacci. Also here are other members of the management team. The presentation that accompanies Jim's comments, the earnings press release and our Form 10-Q are available on our website at www.Edisoninvestor.com. Consistent with last quarter, we posted Ted's and Jim's prepared remarks so that you can follow their comments. Tomorrow afternoon we will distribute our regular business of the presentation for use in upcoming investor meetings. During this call we will make forward-looking statements about the future outlook for Edison International and its subsidiaries. Actual results could differ materially from current expectations. Important factors that could cause different results are set forth in our SEC filings. Please read these carefully. The presentation includes certain outlook assumptions as well as reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measures. During Q&A please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. I will now turn the call over to Ted.
Ted Craver:
Thank you, Scott and good afternoon, everyone. Second quarter earnings were $1.16 per share, up $0.08 per share from last year. However, until SCE receives a decision on its 2015 general rate case, comparisons of year-over-year results will not be that meaningful. Jim will have the details in his comments. Today I will touch on several policy and growth topics but first a comment on a comment on SONGS. We were disappointed about the renewed uncertainty surrounding the SONGS settlement. Most of the recent procedural moves and various motions have come from individuals and organizations that have consistently opposed the settlement since it was first announced over a year ago. It was more troubling to have one of the six signatories of the settlement, The Utility Reform Network, advise the CPUC in late June that it no longer supported the settlement. Interestingly, in TURN's announcement, it about which acknowledged that the terms of the settlement were good for customers and that the outcome of any litigated reconsideration process may not differ substantially from the terms of the settlement. TURN is an important voice on consumer matters before the CPUC so we must hope that its failure to adhere to its obligations under the SONGS settlement represents an aberration. We have now responded to all requests for information from the CPUC's administrative law judges regarding the challenges to the SONGS settlement. We're hopeful they will rule on the outstanding issues soon. Prolonging this period of uncertainty is not good for anyone. We continue to believe strongly that the settlement met all of the required standards for last November's unanimous commission approval. We believe that the SONGS settlement was the product of good faith arm's-length negotiations that resulted in a fair and reasonable outcome for our customers. Let me turn to some regular toward policy developments. The CPUC recently ruled on a residential rate design reform as required by Assembly Bill 327. Their recent unanimous decision was the product of significant debates and compromise among the commissioners. We didn't get everything we advocated for. We would've liked to have seen more progress in increasing the proportion of revenues collected through fixed charges which would better match our actual cost of residential customers but the minimum bill will be raised from $1.80 to $10 a month. Also, we preserve the opportunity to revisit a more meaningful fixed charge in the future. We achieved rate reform that places approximately 96% of our retail customers' kilowatt hours into a two-tiered rate section structure, very similar to what we recommended. About 4% of our retail customers' kilowatt hours will be subject to a surcharge for high usage. The commissioners invested a tremendous amount of time and effort in this phase of the proceeding and we appreciated the unanimous agreement that getting residential rates closer to the true cost of service was an important tenant in producing fairness amongst customers. Attention will now turn to the portion of the CPUC proceeding on net energy metering which relates to how customers who opt for rooftop solar are credited for their own generation. Parties will be filing their net energy metering proposals next week. Turning to a different subject, we have received broad support for SCE's Charge Ready program. This is the program we announced last October to invest infrastructure to support transportation electrification. On July 9, a settlement with most of the parties was filed with the CPUC on the $22 million pilot phase of the program. Importantly, both TURN and the Office of Ratepayer Advocates are parties to the settlement, as are environmental organizations and electric vehicle charger equipment companies. The principal change to our original application in the settlement is to expense rather than capitalize the rebates that SCE would provide customers for the vehicle chargers installed. While it didn't change the amount recommended for the pilot program, we expect that if this provision is adopted for the full program the rate base opportunity will now be $225 million of the total $342 million estimate for the program. We look forward to commission action on the pilot and subsequently on the full program. The final topic I want to cover is SCE's distribution resources plan or DRP filed with the CPUC on July 1. We consider this plan to be one of our most important filings this year and probably in several years. We endeavored to not simply answer the commission's initial questions about integration of distributed energy resources but also to lay out our vision for how the grid of the future will facilitate customer choice of new technologies and support California's policies to move to a low-carbon economy. The goal of the distribution resources plan is to facilitate the integration of distributed energy resources at optimal locations within the distribution grid and to upgrade the distribution grid to better enable a plug-and-play approach for adding distributed energy resources and new technologies more broadly across our system. These resources include distributed renewable generation such as rooftop and ground mount solar, electric vehicle charging, energy storage, energy efficiency, demand response. California have used these resources as enablers in achieving its low-carbon objectives over the next several decades. At the expected adoption rate for these distributed resources, the electric grid will require substantial investment in modernization and upgrades. As part of its filing, SCE provided an initial view of the range of possible capital investments to achieve the goals of the DRP. Assuming the CPUC support this provides some indication of our view of the investment required for the long-term program which will likely go well into the next decade. Jim will talk about some of the financial details and how we see this working with the GRC process. As I've just indicated, significant capital investment will be required to modernize and upgrade SCE's distribution grid consistent with the DRP recommendations. This is in addition to continued distribution system reliability investment, anticipated electric vehicle charging and storage investments, continued transmission and generation maintenance capital investment and potential improvements in capital spending productivity. All of this is consistent with our lower risk wires-focused investment strategy. Taken together, we expect overall SCE capital spending to be at least $4 billion annually for the foreseeable future. Depending on the state's preferences on the pace of adoption and on approval of DRP-related work in future general rate cases, capital spending could be higher. I will now turn it over to Jim for the financial update.
Jim Scilacci:
Thanks, Ted. This afternoon I will cover second quarter and year-to-date results and several other topics. Please turn to Page 2 of the presentation. I will lead off my comments for the general statement about attempting to compare 2015 to 2014 earnings. Because SCE has yet to receive a 2015 general rate case decision, the utility is recording revenues largely based upon 2014 authorized levels. In the quarter SCE receives a final GRC decision, we will record a cumulative adjustment retroactive to January 1, 2015. Earnings comparisons will not be useful until we report full-year 2015 earnings. In the meantime, we believe the simplified rate base approach is the best starting point to model full-year earnings. As Ted said, second quarter core earnings are $1.16 per share. Consistent with our first-quarter approach, we did defer revenues to offset incremental repair deductions, pending the outcome of the 2015 GRC. The amount of deferred revenue this quarter was $0.09 per share with the offsetting benefit in taxes. You can see this in the summary of SCE's driver on this slide. On a year-to-date basis SCE has now deferred your dollar $0.16 of revenue from incremental repair deductions, because of the large delta between expected and forecast repair deductions for 2015, last May SCE made a filing with the CPUC to update its repair deductions for the 2015 through 2017 GRC period. With the May filing, SCE's updated 2015 revenue request would result in a $120 million revenue decrease from authorized revenues. For the two post-test years, the year-over-year revenue change would be an increase of $236 million and $320 million for the 2016 and 2017, respectively. We have no insight as to the timing of the proposed GRC decision. On July 24, SCE did respond to certain questions raised by the ALJ concerning they May filing regarding repair deductions. The questions related to the coordination of ratemaking between CPUC and FERC. The major items impacting second quarter results is a $0.31 per share tax benefit from reducing liabilities from uncertain tax positions. During the quarter, we received an IRS report for tax shares 2010 through 2012. Based on this report, we updated our estimated liabilities for uncertain tax positions which flow directly through to earnings. We had a similar benefit of $0.09 last year related to updating uncertain tax positions for other tax benefit years. Both of these are highlighted in the SCE key earnings drivers. Historically we have classified the change in an estimate of an uncertain tax position both positive and negative as part of core earnings and highlight significant changes that affect period-over-period comparisons. These items are not part of the simplified earnings model that we have discussed in the past and are subject to future revisions based on audits, new information and other developments related to our tax positions. Excluding the $0.31 share per share benefit second quarter core earnings are $0.85 per share with SCE contributing $0.87, offset by $0.02 loss at the EIX holding company. In the core EPS drivers table we netted out SONGS related impact on revenues, O&M and depreciation. On this basis, revenues are lower by $0.03 per share due to the $0.09 per share deferred revenue I mentioned earlier and partially offset by a $0.06 per share benefit from higher FERC-related and other revenues. Looking at costs, O&M has $0.01 per share positive variance which we continue our cost management focus. SCE's second quarter results included $0.02 per share in severance costs this year and $0.01 per share last year. On a year-over-year basis the difference is minimal because of rounding. Depreciation expense increased by $0.06 per share, reflecting SCE's ongoing wires investment. SCE benefited by lower financing costs by $0.03 per share. This relates primarily to higher AFUDC equity earnings. Turning to taxes, I've already discussed most of the major items. These include the uncertain tax positions this year and last year as well as the $0.09 per share of incremental repair deductions, that is the offset to the $0.09 of revenue, so no net earnings impact. The balance is lower tax benefits year over year of $0.12 per share, mainly related to lower flow-through tax benefits than last year, revisions to estimated liabilities of our net operating losses, interest and state income taxes. Remaining $0.07 per share negative variance includes benefit from last year that did not recur in 2015 such as generator settlements and a San Onofre property tax refund. For the EIX holding company losses were $0.01 lower than last year due to lower corporate expenses and higher income from affordable housing projects. We continue to wind down the Edison capital low-income housing portfolio. Please turn to Page 3. I don't plan to review the year to date result -- financial results in detail, but the earnings analysis is consistent with the second quarter results. As I have said previously, comparisons pending a 2015 GRC decision are not meaningful. Please turn to Page 4. You will see that the uptick in interest rates is reflected in the trend of the Moody's Utility Bond Index shown at the green line. The 12-month moving average line shown in blue is moving back towards the 5% base rate. Given the short time period remaining on the 12-month measurement period, it is likely that SCE's CPUC return on common equity will remain at 10.45% during 2016. At FERC, the moratorium on filing and ROE change expired on July 1. I would also like to touch on a few other SCE-related financial matters that are not shown on the slide. First, SEC's weighted average equity component, for regulatory purposes, was 48.9% at June 30 compared to 48.4% at the end of the first quarter. SCE is required to maintain a 48% common equity layer on a rolling 13-month basis. Second, SCE continues to make good progress on reducing its fuel and purchase power under collection. As of June 30 of last year, SCE's ERRA balancing account was under collected by $1.6 billion. As of June 30 this year, the ERRA under collection was $543 million. The billion-dollar reduction was from three primary reasons, SONGS settlement refund credits against the ERRA balancing account, the 2014 ERRA rate increase and lower-than-expected power and natural gas prices. As of July 23 commission conference, the CPUC approved SCE's access to the SONGS 2 and 3 nuclear decommissioning trusts for costs incurred from the June 2013 plant shut down through the end of 2014. These costs amounted $343 million and the amount will be refunded to customers via a credit to the ERRA under collections pursuant to the SONGS settlement. This morning SCE file the settlement agreement and the 2015 ERRA proceeding. As part of this settlement SCE has agreed to forgo any 2015 ERRA rate increase adjustment. We now expect that the ERRA under collection will be fully recovered before year end. Lastly, earlier this month both SCE and EIX extended the terms of their respective credit agreement by a year to July 2020 for $2.6 billion at SCE and $1.18 billion at EIX. The remainder $150 million for SCE and $68 million for EIX will mature in July 2019. There are no material changes to the terms and conditions. Please turn to Page 5. SCE's capital spending forecast is unchanged from the first quarter. Ted has already discussed the long-term growth opportunity around the distribution resources plan, but I want to add a couple of financial specifics. Please turn to Page 6. SCE preliminarily estimated up to $560 million in potential DRP capital expenditures during the 2015 through 2017 forecast period. These proposed expenditures are largely weighted towards 2017. SCE has requested a memorandum account for the 2015 through 2017 revenue requirement of these investments to avoid any retroactive ratemaking issues. DRP investment that are made within authorized levels for the 2015 through 2017 GRC period will not have any incremental earnings impact. If our total investment exceeds the amount authorized due to the DRP spending and if a memorandum account is authorized then we will seek to recover associated revenue requirements as part of SCE's 2018 general rate case. Please turn to Page 7. The rate base forecast for the 2015 through 2017 GRC period is unchanged from the first quarter. Please turn to Page 8. This chart provides 2015 financial assumptions and has been updated for year-to-date results and amounts related to revenue recognition on repair deductions that I covered earlier. Please turn to Page 9. I would like to finish with a recap of our investment thesis. The DRP filing and ongoing grid investments that Ted discussed strengthens the long-term growth thesis for SCE. Future capital spending at the $4 billion level implies, very roughly, a $2 billion per-year increase in rate base. We're planning to grow our dividend meaningfully as we move back to our target payout ratio of 45% to 55% of SCE earnings in steps over time. Lastly, we will prudently manage our capital structure and have no plans for external common equity. Thank you and I will turn to call over to the operator to moderate the Q&A.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from Michael Weinstein of UBS. Your line is open.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
It's Julien here. I suppose first question out of the gate, in terms of the GRC, can you elaborate on the settlement opportunity? And also perhaps just in terms of the potential for a longer than a three-year resolution, is there an opportunity for a fourth year?
Jim Scilacci:
I guess it's very difficult for us to speculate on something like that and if there were settlement discussions we would not normally comment on that Julien, so I will just have to if I can duck that question. Three to four years -- we've only filed for three, it makes it challenging to do a fourth unless you had some kind of special arrangement. So as much as we would like to get these things done more quickly and get online and get them approved, it would be a challenge to do something like that.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. But in terms of confidence in the timeline here, perhaps if you can elaborate?
Jim Scilacci:
As I said in my prepared remarks, we just don't have a view. We're waiting for a proposed decision and that's all we can say right now.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Fair enough. And then perhaps just terms of the wider CapEx program, obviously you provided it pretty meaningful update intra-quarter here. How are you thinking in the long-term? Is there going to be eventually coming out of this process incremental CapEx? Should we ultimately be continuing to think about 4 to 4.5 throughout the process of having these proposals, ultimately, I suppose ratified or adopted or what have you?
Jim Scilacci:
That's what we've been indicating. We've said in fact it was in my remarks and probably in Ted's, too, that we see that 4 to 4.5 range being sustained based on all the things we're seeing now and with the DRP but, again, some of it is subject to a lot of commission approval. Obviously that they are going to go through and review this and give us some indication as far as a time frame and so that's still a lot in their court in terms of how they work through it. But our current view is somewhere in that $4 billion to $4.5 billion range.
Operator:
And yes we did get the question come back through and it's from Hugh Wynne of Bernstein Research. Your line is open.
Hugh Wynne:
I know you can't call the outcome but I was wondering if you might provide a little bit of clarity on the procedural steps that have to be taken by the commission to consider the potential reopening of the SONGS settlement and if so, the steps that you would expect after that.
Jim Scilacci:
Hugh, it's Jim. We're going to have to Adam Umanoff, our General Counsel, provide some answers there.
Adam Umanoff:
Good afternoon, Hugh. As you know, there is a potential petition for a modification from before the public utility commission. We really can't give you any certainty on the timing of the commission's consideration of that petition. Motions have been filed, responses have been made. There is no specific time period under which the commission is obligated to respond. We're certainly hopeful, as Ted mentioned, that this will be resolved quickly, but we can't give you any definitive timeline for that resolution. There is a companion motion for sanctions before the public utility commission in connection with ex parte communications or allegations of improper ex parte communications. We would hope that that would be resolved concurrently if not in advance of the consideration of the petition for modification.
Hugh Wynne:
And if the filing is -- the petition for modification is accepted and the San Onofre rate case is reopened, can you give us any general feel as to what the process for litigation would be and the timeline for that?
Adam Umanoff:
Again, first and foremost, we don't believe that the existing commission precedent would support reopening of the SONGS settlement. But we certainly can't advise you with any certainty that it can't happen. If the proceeding is reopened we would return to litigation and litigation of the San Onofre OII would likely take considerable period of time. It would not happen in a matter of weeks or months.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Michael Lapides from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Michael Lapides:
On SONGS, can you give an update in terms of where you are in the process with NEIL? And also there were lots of headlines over the last couple of days about the arbitration with MHI. Can you just give an update on that as well?
Adam Umanoff:
Sure. I would be happy to. Hello, Michael. With respect to NEIL we continue to pursue recovery of our losses from NEIL but really can't speculate as to the timing of concluding that effort. With respect to MHI, I think it's important as a preface to remind everyone that we're subject to a confidentiality order from the arbitration panel who is hearing the MHI claims. We're not in a position to comment on any of the substantive or procedural activity in the MHI arbitration. I can tell you that we believe we're still on track for a spring 2016 hearing and I hope for resolution to that hearing and final order later in 2016.
Michael Lapides:
Can I ask just a procedural question, if any of the parties has issues with the final order that comes out of an ICC arbitration, if they want to litigate, can they? And if so, where?
Adam Umanoff:
Generally the arbitral order is expected to be final. There are very limited grounds for appeal. It remains to be seen if a frustrated party chose to appeal where they would take that.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Steve Fleishman from Wolfe Research. Your line is open.
Steve Fleishman:
Could you may be spend a little time going through what the DRP process is from here and what the commission is actually going to decide on the DRP?
Pedro Pizarro:
Sure. Steve, this is Pedro Pizarro. We filed -- we and the other utilities filed our plans on July 1. From here, the commission is going to go through a traditional process to review the filings and ultimately comment and approve on them. As Jim mentioned in his comments, in addition to the element that the PUC asked for in the filing, they asked for things like an analysis of the capacity of our system to integrate distributed resources, approach that we will follow to provide transparency to the market in terms of what the capacity is and how we will update it. There was also a number of demonstration projects that we propose to do per the PUC order. So they will plan on all of that and ultimately approve a final approach. We also asked for the memorandum account treatment that Jim mentioned. So at this point I don't think we can speculate on final timing but we would expect under a typical timeline -- this is a new process but in a typical PUC timeline we would expect approval sometime in the next year.
Steve Fleishman:
And is this a case where there is intervention and people can have their own view on your proposal? Is this something then where maybe there could be a chance to try and settle this case? How does this case proceed from that aspect?
Pedro Pizarro:
So it is a litigated proceeding so there will be opportunities for interveners to file comments and for different views to be aired at the PUC. Really too early to comment on whether there is a prospect for settlement among parties or the like.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. And then just a question on the memo account treatment. So you wouldn't keep seek recovery of the investment through 2017 until the GRC. But under the memo account would you effectively be able to recover that investment on like a non-cash basis with a return in the meantime?
Jim Scilacci:
That's a good question. There's still some speculation in terms of how it actually operates. The memorandum account, as I said, was really just to preserve the opportunity to recover the revenue requirement associated with the expenditure. So you can go back and essentially attempt to justify the reasonableness of the expenditure. Then through the general rate case in 2018, we would hope to seek recovery if in fact all the conditions were met. I wouldn't expect -- I think you are trying to go for some additional earnings in the 2015 through 2017 time frame associated with it. I think it's too early to project that we would, in fact, get anything. I think it's going to be more weighted towards 2018 anyway. And if you look at the charts that show the level of expenditure for the DRP, it's heavily weighted toward 2017 anyway, if the commission will allow us to spend that kind of dough.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Daniel Eggers from Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
Daniel Eggers:
on the long-term CapEx discussion, if you think about kind of the buckets -- the 2015 to 2017 period of CapEx, soft phase-out of transmission, more distribution and maintenance work. If you think about that 2018 and on, what CapEx is getting substituted out? So think about the changing mix of your capital, how do you see it evolving as the DRP money comes in more significantly?
Jim Scilacci:
Transmission, we will have to see what happens ultimately with some of the legislation that is pending too. We've been seeing that it's gone up as we have built the renewable lines. Now it's been coming down as we're finishing Tehachapi and a few other renewable projects we've got in the pipeline. We've been saying all along there's not much generation. It's about $100 million of maintenance capital we have for the legacy generation fleet. The rest -- we've been saying as transmissions come down we've been stepping up distribution because we're trying to get our replacement rates up to where they need to be so they support what we're trying to do from an overall reliability perspective. So we're trying to balance us all within the $4 billion range and that's the goal. That's what we're trying to work for and hopefully we can fit all of this in with the DRP accordingly. So I'll look at Maria or Pedro -- anything else to add?
Pedro Pizarro:
Maybe what I would add Jim, is think about one of the base spending areas is that infrastructure replacement for distribution system that will continue. In the DRP filing we outlined a number of categories of DRP-related investments. I would expect that as we go through future rate case cycles that line between what's called quote-unquote new DRP spending and what's core distribution spending will start to emerge as these technologies of the future really become part of the core mainstream of core distribution system. One other piece there is that some of the DRP spending -- the grid reinforcement piece that we have outlined for both 2015, 2017 and then beyond time frames, some of that is accelerating work that might normally see as distribution infrastructure replacement. It's hardening circuits that might be some of our lower voltage circuits that need to be brought up to more modern higher voltage circuit so they can accommodate greater number of distributed resources. So that's, again, an area where we're taking investments that may have been part of a longer-term infrastructure replacement plan but because of the need to integrate distributed resources it needs to get accelerated forward in order to harden the grill and allow faster adoption of the new technology. So again that's a place where you see that line over the years ahead blurring a little bit between infrastructure replacement and the DRP bucket.
Daniel Eggers:
And just on transmission with the Delaney line going away from your Group, how do you guys think about the ability to win bigger transmission projects in California in the future? Is this going to become just a lowest-cost bid type of environment that makes it harder to get the most optimal project on?
Pedro Pizarro:
So you know the ISO is running their competitive process in the under FERC Order 1000. We had did with partners in the Delaney-Colorado River process. We expect that as other opportunities come up in our service area we will continue to bid on those and put out competitive proposals. I think as we go through this and, frankly, not only ourselves with the entire market continues to learn in terms of what the competitive practices are in terms of designing lines, constructing them, etc. I think we want to be part of the learning process and make sure we're making our proposals more competitive in the future. So, we're still capturing the lessons learned out of the Delaney-Colorado River experience but certainly support the process of the ISO's going through and evaluating proposals and accepting bids based on the parameters they are evaluating.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jonathan Arnold from Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
Jonathan Arnold:
Firstly, just on the deferral -- the revenue deferral, should we think of that as basically lining your actual expense up with where the revenues are going to be so there's really no earnings impact of this as we get -- once the GRC is done?
Jim Scilacci:
Roughly that's what we're trying to do.
Jonathan Arnold:
So maybe a bit less noise in the numbers? At least from that source.
Jim Scilacci:
Well the goal here in the May filing is really what you need to go back to, is that the misalignment between the actual expenditures and the deductions we're taking and the forecast and the reserves are creating first and second quarter, what we're trying to do is get this stuff put together and we recognized that they were misaligned. And that's why we went back in for the supplemental filing. And if they adopt that supplemental filing, obviously that would not flow to earnings. So if that's your initial question, the answer would be yes.
Jonathan Arnold:
And then just on to this question of the overlap between DRP projects and spending fact that you might otherwise -- things you might otherwise have done. You have a 2017 -- you said it lot of the bulk of the initial DRP is in 2017. You have a rate case filing in. Is there overlap as you see it today or is this just things may evolve as you work through the next year or two?
Jim Scilacci:
So it's not in the current GRC forecast. The only way we have contemplated spending some money is if you don't spend all that is authorized, for example, if you have fewer service connections that we have forecast, that creates some delta, some room to spend additional dollars. Now what I said in my prepared remarks, if we spend all this authorized based on our forecast and we would like to make DRP expenditures above that, that's where the memorandum account comes in, why it's important. So you don't get into any retroactive ratemaking issues.
Jonathan Arnold:
But it would require some other line item to come in below the forecast for this to have to apply in the current rate case period?
Jim Scilacci:
In that scenario, yes or a memorandum account and spending above.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. And can I just -- MHI -- it was pretty publicly reported that your claims had increased very substantially versus prior disclosures. Can you shed any light on that in the context of talking about confidentiality, etc.?
Adam Umanoff:
Jonathan, I appreciate the question -- would love to tell you more, but in accordance with our confidentially obligations we can't comment.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Travis Miller from Morningstar. Your line is open.
Travis Miller:
I was wondering if we can go back to the DRP here, yet again. The 2018, 2020 numbers -- I wonder if you could just qualitatively give us an idea of the difference in how the environment looks at the $1.4 billion low end and the $2.6 million high end. It's obviously a large -- what difference happens there?
Pedro Pizarro:
This is Pedro again. And I'll keep it at a pretty high level -- one of the reasons that we have the range there is that especially as we start getting out into the 2018 to 2020 time frame a lot of our view on the DRP is colored by our internal forecasting of the pace of adoption of technologies and how that pace of adoption varies across different parts of our system. For example, the capital spending forecast that we included in the DRP filing really focused on urban areas. We're assuming that rural areas would not have as quick a pace of adoption and it might happen in later years. We've taken a stab at what circuits might have a faster level of adoption versus a slower level of adoption. But I think that range in there really is coupled back to where do customers end up choosing to deploy these technologies? How quickly do they do it? And what things do we need to do to ensure that our grid is ready to plug-and-play their choices? I think that's really the range as opposed to more a determinative decision on our part to invest here or there. Some of this we're really changing the mindset here to make sure that we're supporting having a grid that's robust and that can keep pace and be ready for customer choices. But we're taking a bit of a stab at this point as to what those customer choices will be.
Jim Scilacci:
Travis, you can see on Page 6 of the investor deck the breakout of the spending. $0.5 billion of it alone is the grid reinforcement. That's what Pedro alluded to, is taking the lower voltage circus circuits and taking up to higher voltage levels to prepare for more distributed generation. And that's just pace. How fast do you want to make those changes? That's a choice that we will have to make and the commission will have to make together.
Pedro Pizarro:
One other variable that we cited in filing is -- again, we're making forecasts based on our current view and the market's current view of technologies available. For example, communications systems. We know we will need to broaden -- expand the capabilities of our field area network. We're building these capital numbers based on the view of what those technologies will cost today, but we all know that computing communications technologies are on a very fast development curve and so the actual prices, the actual cost for those technologies can vary significantly as we head out a few years out.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Ali Agha from SunTrust. Your line is open.
Ali Agha:
Coming back to SONGS for a second and just looking at the key gating items we should be keeping an eye on. You've got that re-hearing request out there and then you've got the ALJ trying to close the OII proceeding that continue to get pushed back and now has that September 27 deadline recently approved. How significant is that in the scheme of things? And if they stick to this final deadline and close the books, does that imply some final resolution on this matter or is that irrelevant to this?
Adam Umanoff:
We certainly hope that the CPUC will now conclude its consideration of the application for re-hearing motion for sanctions and the petition for modification of the settlement, all by that September 27 date. But, frankly, there's no guarantee. That deadline for extension of the OII proceeding has been extended previously and it can be extended again.
Ali Agha:
Okay. But that proceeding is the one sort of gating items to keep an eye on. If they stick to that that could be the resolution date, if you will, of these matters?
Adam Umanoff:
It could conceivably be.
Ali Agha:
Okay. And separate question, Ted, to you, as you think about your dividend plans going through the December period, as you normally do, are those going to be completely independent of these regulatory issues out there? For example, if the GRC decision hasn't come out, if SONGS settlement hasn't yet happened or closed, would you still stick to your dividend plans based on your CapEx and cash flow programs or do these things influence how you are thinking about the dividend?
Ted Craver:
I think I would probably want to leave investors with the emphasis being on we've stated numerous times what our objective is. We've also stated numerous times -- and that's the return to the 45% to 55% payout ratio for SCE earnings. And we've also stated that it will take -- it's not going to happen all in one shot. We've made a very large kind of move last year. We want to continue to make solid moves in order to get back to that payout ratio. So that's where I would want to put the emphasis. To say that we will do that come hell or high water -- you never can say that. You have to take into consideration capital requirements, take into consideration all of these other proceedings. But at least as we see it today they all look like they are manageable within the context of continuing to make progress and deliver on one of our core objectives of getting back to the payout ratio of 45% to 55%.
Operator:
Our last question comes from Paul Patterson of Glenrock Associates. Your line is open.
Paul Patterson:
Just a follow-up on Dan Eggers's question on the Delaney transmission project. I guess what I'm sort of wondering is can you give us a feeling as to what -- you guys had the rights-of-way advantage, you're local. And Abengoa and Starwood come in and win, not only over you guys but others. What was their cost? What was their revenue requirement advantage that you think was instrumental in them getting the deal?
Pedro Pizarro:
I don't believe that the Cal ISO has published the cost estimate, their revenue requirement for that project. The goal we have at this point is a statement from the ISO that in their view the proposed cost for that Abengoa team were significantly less than those of the next competitor and I don't think the ISO has publicized to the next competitor was. So it's tough to speculate on what some of the key drivers would have been. But when you think about around cost of transmission project, key elements would include everything from the upstream design of the project, what kind of powers, what kind of conductors to rights-of-way, as you suggested, to environmental impact and mitigating those impacts depending on what route you choose to the cost of the actual construction labor you are using to build. Very difficult for us to speculate on what it would have been, but, again, we note that the ISO said that the choice was based on the lower revenue requirement and also binding caps on capital costs and as well as the return on equity.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. Do you know when they are going to provide more information? Cal ISO, I mean
Pedro Pizarro:
I don't think we're aware of that.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. And then just finally you mentioned the cost of capital in 2016. When do you guys think that that might be revisited? It's been deferred in the past in terms of -- you guys had that separate cost of capital proceedings. What's your expectation or what should we be thinking in terms of when the CPUC may go for this? And is there any potential that they may delay it?
Jim Scilacci:
Okay. Paul, this is Jim. Right now, procedurally we would file in April 2016 for cost of capital effective 1/1/2017. And that's cost of capital, that would be return on common equity, capital structure and the like. That wouldn't preclude an extension like we've done before, but the current policy or the current procedural path would be filing in April.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. Is there any thought that there -- or any discussion -- maybe it's early -- it's July, I guess. But is there any preliminary idea as to whether or not you might be able to defer that?
Jim Scilacci:
It's a possibility. We've deferred it once already. This is the first time -- we've done it in the past and so generally the California utilities when I have talked with my compatriots at PG&E and Sempro, we like the procedure. We like the trigger mechanism. It's transparent. You can see it, you can see what's happening with it. So there's a strong desire on our part to continue to use it. If we can get an extension that would be great. If we had to go there in litigated process, we will just have to see where interest rates are. And it seems like it's coming right back to where we started three years ago -- well now four, if we get further on here. So the mechanism has worked well, given what we're trying to do.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. But do you get the feeling that your counterparties on the other side might be willing to do that as well?
Jim Scilacci:
We've done it once already so we will have to see if they'd do it again.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. And just finally, there is these legislative initiatives regarding the CPUC and other things, but regarding the CPUC and perhaps reforms. And there's been some changes and there are competing bills. Anything in particular -- any particular legislative initiative we think we should focus on or anything in terms of that area that might be coming up? I know there are a few of them. I was just wondering if there's one in particular that you think is more significant than others.
Adam Umanoff:
There is a hearing coming up in the middle of August directly related to ex parte governance issues at the CPUC. There have been a number of independent reports that have been prepared for the CPUC. There is a draft of the commissioner code of conduct that's been prepared and we welcome a transparent exercise considering reform to the ex parte and other governance rules of the commission. That might be worthwhile listening in on. Again, I think it's in the middle of August, so in a couple of weeks from now.
Operator:
That was the last question. I will now turn the call back to Mr. Cunningham.
Scott Cunningham:
Thanks for very much, everyone, for participating and please do call us if you have any follow-up questions. Thanks again and have a safe day. Bye, bye.
Operator:
Thank you for your participation in today's conference. I will now disconnect the lines at this time. Have a wonderful day.
Executives:
Scott Cunningham - Vice President, Investor Relations Theodore Craver - Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer William Scilacci - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Pedro Pizarro - President Adam Umanoff - Executive Vice President, General Counsel
Analysts:
Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs Julien Dumoulin - UBS Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research Ali Agha - SunTrust Travis Miller - Morningstar Ashar Khan - Visium John Alli - Castleton Investment Management
Operator:
Good afternoon, and welcome to the Edison International first quarter 2015 financial teleconference. My name is Angie, and I'll be your operator today. [Operator instructions] I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Scott Cunningham, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Cunningham, you may begin.
Scott Cunningham:
Thanks, Angie, and good afternoon, everyone. Our principal speakers today will be Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Ted Craver; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Jim Scilacci. Also here are other members of the management team. The presentation that accompanies Jim's comments, the earnings press release, and our Form 10-Q are available on our website at www.edisoninvestor.com. Also, starting this quarter, we have posted Ted's and Jim's prepared remarks on the website and filed it in 8-K, so that you can follow their comments. Later this week, we will distribute our regular business update presentation for use in upcoming investor meeting. During this call, we will make forward-looking statements about the future outlook for Edison International and its subsidiaries. Actual results could differ materially from current expectations. Important factors that could cause different results are set forth in our SEC filings. Please read these carefully. The presentation includes certain outlook assumptions, as well as reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure. During Q&A, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. I'll now turn the call over to Ted.
Theodore Craver:
Thank you, Scott, and good afternoon, everyone. Our first quarter core earnings were $0.90 per share, unchanged from the first quarter of the previous year. Because SCE has not received a decision in its 2015 General Rate Case, comparisons of results are not particularly meaningful. Jim Scilacci will cover the specifics. I'm certain that what is on your minds now more than anything else is the filing we will make tomorrow with the California Public Utilities Commission, regarding communications with CPUC decision-makers during the SONGS settlement process. Although, we are still finalizing our response, I want to make some comments about what we expect to file. Since our work on the filing is still on going, there is some small risk that I will have to supplement what I say today, but it is outweighed by our desire to be transparent. First, we do not expect to file any additional late ex parte notices. We conducted a thorough process to identify and review communications and internal documents concerning the settlement of the SONGS OII between CPUC decision-makers and personnel at SCE and EIX, who could reasonably be expected to have engaged in such communications. As specified in the ALJs' order, we looked at documents from the period between March 1, 2013 a few weeks before the Warsaw meeting, and November 30, 2014, a short while after the settlement was approved by the PUC. This is a mammoth undertaking, involving an initial broad pool of slightly more than 2 million emails and documents, and then winnowing that group down in successive levels of review to isolate documents relating to the SONGS OII and the settlement process. I've come to learn how these types of document searches and reviews are done. It is very complicated. It requires real care in setting up the parameters for searching and sifting, given the huge number of documents that could potentially be relevant. It also involves some judgments about search parameters. We used multiple levels of review and a lot of checking and rechecking of work. We used an outside law firm to conduct this work. All of this was done in a sincere attempt to do a thorough, complete and proper job. We believe we have done so. Our filing tomorrow will provide details on the search criteria and the multi-layered review and checking process used. This work will result in us providing a couple dozen emails in our response to the CPUC. As I said, we do not expect to make any additional late ex parte notices. That said, we are providing in our response quite a bit of additional information in an effort to be transparent and forthcoming on contacts between CPUC decision-makers and SCE and EIX executives on SONGS related matters. I want to highlight some of the additional information we intend to provide. We are providing a chronology of key events relating to the SONGS settlement, covering the period from the initiation of the OII to the commission approval of the settlement. We are also providing a summary and the relevant documents, where we had communications with CPUC decision-makers, even though those communications fell outside of the criteria for filing ex parte notices. These cover things like
William Scilacci:
Thanks, Ted. Good afternoon, everyone. I'll cover the following topic in my remarks. First quarter result, our updated capital spending and rate base forecast and our financing plans. I'll lead off my comments with a general statement about attempting to compare 2015 to 2014 earnings, because SCE is yet to receive a General Rate Case decision. The utility is recording revenues largely based on 2014 authorized levels. In the quarter SCE receives a final GRC decision, we will record a cumulative adjustment retroactive to January 1, 2015. As Ted mentioned, earnings comparisons will not be useful until we report full year 2015 earnings. In the meantime, we believe the simplified rate base model is the best starting point to model full year earnings. Please turn to Page 2 of the presentation. As Ted said, core earnings are unchanged year-over-year at $0.90 per share. GAAP or basic earnings per share are $0.38 per share higher. This is primarily due to non-core items last year related to the SONGS OII settlement of $0.29 per share and $0.07 per share related to EME. This quarter, we also had $0.02 per share of income under the HLBV accounting treatment for solar tax equity financings. As explained in our last call, Edison Energy has tax equity investors. We are required to allocate income under the hypothetical liquidation at book value accounting method. Since this income does not relate to project performance, we classified it as non-core. Edison Energy is included in EIX parent and other results. Edison International parent company costs are flat at $0.03 per share with slightly higher corporate expenses are offset by earnings from Edison Mission Group, as we continue to monetize Edison Capital's affordable housing portfolio. With respect to our quarterly results, let me clarify the presentation of two items in our results. First, as I previously mentioned, we are recording CPUC revenues at 2014 authorized level, pending a General Rate Case decision. We used this approach except for one modification. We deferred $36 million of authorized revenues or $0.07 per share allocated to the first quarter related to incremental repair deductions pending the outcome of the GRC. There is an offsetting $0.07 per share of income tax benefits shown separately on the slide. Since we don't know how the general rate case will treat repair deductions, we decided it was prudent not to recognize these benefits. The $0.07 is above repair deductions that are included in the 2015 GRC filing. Second, let me clarify the presentation of SONGS, which is addressed in footnote 4 to this slide. During the first quarter of 2015, we began to amortize the SONGS regulatory asset and recorded property taxes, which are recovered through revenues. During the first quarter of last year, we had O&M costs and property taxes that were recovered through GRC revenues. Neither of these affected net income, so we have excluded them from earnings drivers. A fuller description of these items is included in our 10-Q. Let me also note that beginning January 1, 2015, SONGS costs are classified as decommissioning expense, and recorded as a reduction in our asset retirement obligations. Turning back to our slide. We did benefit from $0.07 per share of higher FERC revenues, primarily related to rate base growth and recovery of higher operating costs. Looking at costs, O&M is $0.01 per share higher. Depreciation and amortization costs are $0.04 per share higher from an increase in transmission and distribution investments. Net financing cost benefited by $0.02 per share largely from higher AFUDC equity income. This reflects a higher AFUDC rate and a slightly higher construction work in progress balance. After adjusting for the incremental repair deductions, SCE had lower tax benefits of $0.04 per share. The lower tax benefits relate principally to higher flow-through tax benefits related to higher repair deductions last year. Although our results are better than most analyst estimates, I suspect this is largely due to difficulty in estimating quarterly profile of revenues and earnings from our 2014 authorized revenue requirement. Other than perhaps a favorable AFUDC equity earnings trend, which could remain a factor for the rest of the year, first quarter results are largely consistent, with this simplified rate base model, we encourage investors to use as a starting point. Please turn to Page 3. We have revised our three-year forecast reflecting the removal of the Coolwater-Lugo transmission project. This 220 kV project, planned in San Bernardino County, was intended to support additional utility-scale renewable projects and overall grid reliability. In mid-March, the California Independent System Operator determined that this project is not necessary to provide full capacity deliverability, but would conduct additional studies to assess potential need for all or portions of the project for future system requirements. In the interim, the CAISO requested that the CPUC suspend its approval to proceed with the project. SCE supports the suspension, given the changing circumstances. Last week, the CPUC issued a proposed decision that recommends dismissing the Coolwater-Lugo application on the basis that sufficient deliverability now exists. The Coolwater-Lugo project was forecasted to cost $740 million, of which the most recent forecast had $584 million of expenditures falling within the 2015 through 2017 forecast period. Partially offsetting this are costs and timing updates for a number of other smaller FERC projects. The net result is a decrease of approximately $300 million in FERC CapEx in our capital spending forecast. For your information, we have provided the prior forecast at the bottom of the slide. Lastly, SCE has FERC pre-approval for prudently incurred abandoned plant costs. We will continue to finance SCE's growth consistent with our authorized capital structure. Periodically, SCE will issue long-term debt and preferred stock to support its growing rate base. Of course, retained earnings will provide common equity needs. SCE's 13-month weighted average common equity component was 48.4%. With the cash flow benefits from bonus depreciation expected to commence later this year, SCE may have only modest additional financing requirements this year. Please turn to Page 4. Our rate base growth forecast remains 7% to 9% compounded annually during the forecast period. The FERC capital spending changes have a minor impact on the average rate base forecasts for each year. And SCE continues to have a number of growth programs, such as storage, electric vehicle charging, and the grid of the future projects that will remain important sources of growth well into the next decade. Please turn to Page 5. We have included in this slide some of the important 2015 earnings considerations that we introduced on our last call. The only change is a minor revision to the 2015 rate base forecast that I have discussed earlier. To reiterate our prior statements, we don't plan on issuing 2015 guidance until after SCE receives a General Rate Case decision. I'll finish with a couple of reminders on Edison International's investment thesis. Please turn to Page 6. First, we continue to emphasize a lower-risk SCE investment program focused on the wires business, both for reliability spending and for adapting the grid to the new technologies and needs that we've spoken about for some time. To meet these investment requirements while keeping rate increases moderate, we'll require sustained SCE productivity improvements. Our base financing case remains no common equity issuance to support SCE's investment program. Finally, we continue to see the opportunity for above-average dividend growth potential to complement SCE's earnings growth. Of course, our plan is to increase the dividend back to our target payout ratio in steps over time. Thanks. Operator, let's get started with Q&A.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Daniel Eggers from Credit Suisse.
Daniel Eggers:
I'll pass on the SONGS questions, as there's a lot of folks asked those questions. But I wanted to first ask with the July filing on kind of the distribution network of the future, what else should we expect in that filing? And prospectively, how quickly could that start to flow through your CapEx program and into rate, as you guys devise that plan right now?
William Scilacci:
We're still working through that. The plan is to have a rather comprehensive filing on May 1, and we're hoping to include some potential investment parameters in terms of scale potentially. And we're trying to figure out how ultimately to work that into our capital plans. Now, as you remember, we have a general rate case coming up in 2018. And as the way it works, we have to file for that '18 rate case next year in late '16, and we're still working through it. So we haven't made a final decision. It will certainly be included, we would think now, in '18 general rate case that we'll see at the end of next year. So I'll pause here, and look to Pedro or Maria, to see if they want to add anything more.
Pedro Pizarro:
No. I think you covered it well, Jim. Dan, the PUC has specified a number of areas they want to see in the filings, so actually working through all of that. But your question is more about what are the impact in terms of capital spend, and we'll address that there, but largely the rate case is in the future.
Theodore Craver:
We should clarify. The filing is not May 1.
William Scilacci:
It's dated July 1.
Daniel Eggers:
And then, I guess, just one another question, just specific to the quarter. There is a lot of O&M savings year-on-year, this year versus last. I know you guys are trying to hold up earnings until the GRC gets resolved. But how does that rebalance this year? Will you guys have a big catch up in O&M toward the backend of this year or is this going to be banged for this year and you kind of get on a normal cycle or more normal cycle next year?
William Scilacci:
I think the safest thing to say, until you can get a general rate case decision, after that we'll be able to figure out what's normal. Until then, we're just speculating.
Operator:
Greg Gordon from Evercore ISI.
Greg Gordon:
Can you just tell us after you make your filing tomorrow, what the expected procedural schedule is going to look like at the commission? And do you expect that you'll still be able to get a final decision by May 30? It can be current open proceeding or it's already been delayed once, so is there a chance, given just the amount of the documents that you're giving to them and the limited amount of time between now and May 30 that we'll see another delay in that final decision date?
William Scilacci:
So, Greg, this is Jim. We'll have, Adam Umanoff, answer that question for you. Adam is our General Counsel.
Adam Umanoff:
It's difficult to really answer that question. We really can't speculate how quickly the CPUC will move to consider what we file and reach a final decision. They certainly extended the deadline to the end of May to give them additional time to consider just this filing. We're hopeful that it will be wrapped in that timeframe, but we can't be sure.
Greg Gordon:
After you file, is there a comment period, where we will see responses from different parties to the case or do you file the documents and then next step will be some sort of pronouncement by the commission?
Adam Umanoff:
Again, I'm speculating, but I would suspect to see folks file additional comments based upon what we've produced.
Greg Gordon:
Question on a completely different subject. On the Coolwater-Lugo CapEx coming out, and you guys have indicated for some time, and I think this is sort of wrapped up into this filing coming on the grid of the future that you see a very long runway of necessary capital expenditures at or around or even potentially above the current sort of $4 billion plus-or-minus a year that you're spending, because the deferral or potential cancellation of the Coolwater-Lugo line just sort of opened up an opportunity for you to move other spending that's necessary forward. And if so, at what point would you reassess that or when will we get an update or should we just assume over the next three-year period that that CapEx is out, and we should do the rate base math based on the current guidance?
William Scilacci:
I think my general impression was, we already saw a little bit of a shifting that was going on with the adjustment, because there was almost $600 million that came out of the forecast period and the net was $300 million. That's the normal course that will occur. And we've got some other things in the works, as obviously the electric vehicle charging application in is processing its way through the PUC. There is some storage opportunities. And the grid of the future likely could be outside this period, the '15 through '17 period, but we're still working through that. So I think we will stay consistent with what we previously said before, that the capital expenditures are going to be in that $4 billion-ish range for the foreseeable future. And it will be probably later next year, before we can give you some additional visibility, because that's when ultimately the GRC filing will go in and that will cover '18, '19 and '20.
Operator:
Michael Lapides from Goldman Sachs.
Michael Lapides:
Just real quick question, thinking about bonus depreciation, Jim, you made a comment about it. Just curious, can you refresh us, what's in your expectation for bonus DNA in 2015? And is that already flowing through rate basis part of the ongoing rate case?
William Scilacci:
It is. We've revised our general rate case, showing earlier in the year in the update proceeding, so that incorporate in our current numbers. And the reason why we referred to it that we see that impact later in the year is that we file our tax return in the September timeframe, and the cash flow benefit starts flowing through from that.
Michael Lapides:
One other, just a little bit of a follow-up. If we see kind of any further downward changes in terms of capital spending, does this have a corresponding impact potentially on the pace of change you and the Board might make in terms of dividend growth?
William Scilacci:
I think I alluded to in my last statement from Greg's question, that I don't really see a change in the level of capital expenditures going forward. And so that would be consistent with our current plans to step up our dividend, in steps over time, get back to our targeted payout ratio. So I don't really see a change, Michael.
Operator:
Julien Dumoulin from UBS.
Julien Dumoulin:
So I wanted to ask you a quick question here on rate base trajectory, right. So I appreciate that it's still early days. You've talked about the filing prospectively. You talk about sort of backfilling the CapEx. How do you feel about the current range below the low and high-end of the 7% and 9%, beyond the current forecast period? I mean, would it be appropriate to say that you're setting up to be in that range, while not formally committing yourself to that?
William Scilacci:
Well, just the math of it, if we're staying in that $4 billion trajectory, the compound annual growth rate mathematically would slightly adjust over time downward. It's just the math. But I can't tell you how much and how we're going to fill it in, it really will depend upon how the capital expenditures workout and will be filed with the commission later next year.
Julien Dumoulin:
And then a clarification to a prior question. So in terms of cost savings in the current quarter, I know it's challenging, and so maybe if you look last year, there was about $0.23 give or take. Is there any good way to kind of frame the current period vis-à-vis the cost savings and magnitude that we could see sort of maintained?
William Scilacci:
That's a tough one. And not that I wanted to duck the question, until we get a general rate case decision, it's really hard to say. And we had embedded in our general rate case some assumptions regarding cost savings that we voluntary passed along to the customers. And we will continue to look for additional cost savings, but we'll have to wait for general rate case decision before we really know.
Julien Dumoulin:
And ducking that one perhaps, if I may. In terms of M&A and strategically position of the company, how do think about sort of opportunities in California? And specifically thinking about the company outside of California, you mentioned competitive transmission, but in terms of getting a bigger footprint down the line or is that in the thought process at all?
Theodore Craver:
I'm going to give you a wholly unsatisfying answer, because my lawyers will kick me hard if I say anything other than we don't comment on M&A matters.
Operator:
Steve Fleishman from Wolfe Research.
Steve Fleishman:
Jim, you mentioned the higher AFUDC rate going on this year. Could you just talk more about what's causing the higher AFUDC rate? Is that something that will continue on beyond 2015?
William Scilacci:
Well, it's hard to speculate beyond. But remember, we did the regulatory asset financing earlier in the year bringing cash in, and which has the effect of reducing the amount of short-term borrowings we might carry, which tend to reduce the AFUDC rate. And I also mentioned that the flip balance was slightly higher, so it's a combination of a higher rate and a slightly higher balance that led to the overall slightly higher AFUDC equity earnings. If it's going to continue, I just can't speculate on that now. It's going to be so variable in terms of what happens to the general rate case, what level of capital expenditures is ultimately authorized by the commission, and so forth. So I just can't speculate it at this point in time.
Steve Fleishman:
And then just on the GRC. Is there any way to get a sense of timing on when we might get ALJ on that?
Theodore Craver:
I'd love to tell you, but we just don't know, sorry.
Operator:
Ali Agha from the SunTrust.
Ali Agha:
Jim, wanted to clarify, as you had mentioned the best way to think about 2015 is earnings driver, is really looking at the rate base model. And also on a full year basis, whenever you think about that, given all the extra tax benefits and another incremental savings beyond authorized ROEs that you were getting in '14, the sense is you're starting off from a lower earnings base or will have a lower earnings base in '15 versus '14 and grow from there. So with that as a backdrop, can you explain to me, maybe I've missed this, why we're ending out with the flat earnings comparison in the first quarter, if we are sticking to general rate base model?
Theodore Craver:
There is a lot of pushes and takes are going here and it really has to do with how they authorize '14. And until you really have a general rate case decision, I think what I was trying to imply earlier on my comments it's just very, very hard to compare '14 to '15 given the situation we've got now. So I will just like to say that let's just wait until we get a general rate case decision. And we'll sort through it and give you a better indication of what's the potential power, once the commission gives us a final decision.
Ali Agha:
And then secondly, just to clarify the point on the process as far as SONGS is concerned, is it fair to say that the rehearing forum is really the forum where ultimately this whatever final decision comes out, it comes out from there. The reason I ask that is one of the parties, I don't know which, TURN or ORAs asking for some additional fines to be incurred. Is that all part of this rehearing proceeding or are there multiple or other proceedings we need to be aware of as well.
Adam Umanoff:
The proceeding that is active is the request for rehearing that's before the California Public Utility Commission. There were, as I think you know a Federal Court lawsuit brought by one of the opponents that was in District Court. It was recently dismissed by the District Court, so the action right now is before the California Public Utility Commission. Once the decision is rendered by the California Public Utility Commission, of course an opponent who might be dissatisfied with the decision can appeal to the courts. But none of that activity is currently pending.
Ali Agha:
Just to clarify that, I am sorry, so any party that's asking for additional fines based on the email disclosures, et cetera, that is all part of this rehearing proceeding?
Adam Umanoff:
It's a part of the rehearing proceeding and related filings. For example, two example two days ago, the Alliance for Nuclear Responsibility filed an additional petition for modification in this docket, in the SONGS OII docket, but that along with the current request for rehearing, we would expect those all to be disposed off roughly at the same time by the California Public Utility Commission.
Operator:
Travis Miller from Morningstar.
Travis Miller:
Just wondering, when we're thinking about California specifically how do you think about the investments through Edison Energy and SCE when we're thinking about these new technologies, new age grid technologies. How you think about allocating capital to opportunities through SCE or through Edison Energy in California?
William Scilacci:
I think primarily within the utility we see that's where the principle opportunity to invest in the distribution system resides. And that's where we see quite a bit of modernization and expansion of the distribution system taking place. So I would expect the bulk of the investment would primarily take place at SCE. At Edison Energy or on the competitive side, so whether that's Edison Transmission or some of the CNI Energy Services or some of the other areas that we're looking at, that's really opportunistic and its based on the standard parameters that we've used over the years for investment on the competitive side. If we see something that gives us a positive rate of return after considering cost of capital and risk, then we would seek to invest in those things, so long as it stays in the basic electric footprint that we have. So I think you should expect most of the capital would be dedicated to the SCE activities. Public policy makers in California are certainly keen to see the utilities facilitate. The policy objectives are moving to a low carbon economy. That requires modernizing the system and allowing it to facilitate a number of the new technologies and that's where the bulk of the effort will probably be over the next few years.
Travis Miller:
And do you think if you got approval to invest those money at SCE and you take away the filing here this summer. Could you carry lessons learned, so to speak, from SCE investments there, storage EV, et cetera, to Edison Energy investments outside of California? Is that a potential business model thinking that you could take lessons learned or would think about Edison Energy as completely separate type of investments?
Theodore Craver:
This will be a fairly complicated answer. I would say, broadly, strategically, most definitely Edison International is in the electricity business and we look for opportunities not just in SCE's territory, but throughout. I think a lot of the changes that we see taking see place in the electric industry are in fact often occurring here in California. So there is definitely, I'll say, a general strategic leaning opportunity that comes from that. We have to be careful on some of the specifics there though. Remember, a lot of the investments that are being made in SCE are being funded by customer rates, customer payments and we always have to be extremely careful about any bleed over a specific information or assets or value from the utility to the unregulated side. All of that is captured underneath our affiliate rules, but so long as we're really careful and cognizant on that, I'd say, your broader point, if you will, the strategic learning point is a valid one and one that we are actively trying to look for other opportunities outside of California.
Operator:
Ashar Khan from Visium.
Ashar Khan:
My questions have been asked. The only one I have, Jim, is this $0.07 that you said that you deferred. Is that $0.07 something, which is on an annualized basis or a quarterly basis? I was just trying to get a little bit better understanding of that $0.07?
William Scilacci:
That was $0.07 in the quarter, Ashar.
Ashar Khan:
So can we analyze that number?
William Scilacci:
I don't know, because really ultimately it depends on what the GRC decision ultimately turns out. So I think it would be dangerous to try to analyze it until we get a full decision out here.
Operator:
John Alli from Castleton Investment Management.
John Alli:
Ashar actually asked my questions, I'll just follow-up offline.
Operator:
I'm showing no further questions. At this time, I'd like to turn the call back over to Mr. Cunningham. End of Q&A
Scott Cunningham:
Thanks, everyone, for participating today. And don't hesitate to call up if you have any follow-up questions. Thanks very much. Good evening.
Operator:
Thank you. That does conclude today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect from the audio portion.
Operator:
Good afternoon, and welcome to the Edison International fourth quarter 2014 financial teleconference. [Operator instructions.] I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Scott Cunningham, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Cunningham, you may begin your conference.
Scott Cunningham:
Thanks, operator, and good afternoon everyone. Our principal speakers will be Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Ted Craver and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Jim Scilacci. Also here are the members of the management team. The presentation that accompanies Jim's comments, the earnings press release, and our Form 10-K are available on our website at www.edisoninvestor.com. After the call, we will be posting Ted's and Jim's prepared remarks. Tomorrow afternoon, we will distribute our regular business update presentation for use in upcoming investor meetings. During this call, we will make forward-looking statements about the future outlook for Edison International and its subsidiaries. Actual results could differ materially from current expectations. Important factors that could cause different results are set forth in our SEC filings. Please read these carefully. The presentation includes certain outlook assumptions, as well as reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure. During Q&A, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. I'll now turn the call over to Ted Craver.
Ted Craver:
Thank you, Scott, and good afternoon everyone. We closed a good 2014 on a strong note. We delivered excellent financial performance. We resolved two major uncertainties, Edison Mission Energy and San Onofre. We meaningfully increased the dividend. We continued to fulfill the long term growth opportunity at Southern California Edison through our wires-focused investment strategy that supports California’s environmental and growth objectives, and we continued to selectively pursue growth opportunities that allow us to serve additional customers outside of SCE’s service territory. Most gratifying to me is that we delivered on what we told investors we would do. I’m proud of this leadership team and the outstanding work of our employees. That said, we fully recognize that 2014 is over, and we are in a new year. We need to build on the performance of 2014 and continue to build value. With the strong fourth quarter, full year 2014 core earnings were $4.59 per share, an increase of 21% over the previous year. This result was well above our updated guidance from last fall. Jim Scilacci will cover the details in his comments. The settlements reached on the EME bankruptcy and SONGS order instituting investigation position us to move forward decisively in a time of tremendous change in our industry. The unanimous approval by the California Public Utilities Commission of the SONGS settlement agreement last November demonstrated that it is possible to resolve complex and important regulatory matters through settlement. The settlement was the product of tough negotiations among the initial settling parties
Jim Scilacci:
Thanks, Ted. Good afternoon everyone. My comments will cover fourth quarter and full year 2014 earnings, our updated capital spending and rate base forecast, and cost of capital. As we have previously stated, we will not provide 2015 earnings guidance until SCE receives its 2015 general rate case decision. In this presentation, I will, however, discuss assumptions relevant to our 2015 earnings. Please turn to page two. In the fourth quarter of 2014, SCE earned $1.09 per share or $0.30 ahead of last year. This increase was driven by many of the same factors we have been seeing during 2014, including higher revenue of $0.28 partially offset by depreciation of $0.08, net tax benefits and other items of $0.04, and O&M savings of $0.05. There are also two items of note that are included in the $0.28 of higher revenue, and both of them were not included in our updated earnings guidance that we provided last October. First, we recorded $0.05 of additional revenue from resolution of an open item from our 2012 GRC decision. During 2014, SCE obtained an IRS private letter ruling regarding appropriate treatment of net operating loss carryforwards. The net effect of the ruling was to increase CPUC rate base and revenues. In November, we obtained a CPUC approval authorizing the additional revenues. Second, you may recall that during the third quarter call, we thought that the energy efficiency awards might be delayed until 2015. As things turned out, we received our award in December, and it amounted to $0.04 per share. In the fourth quarter, the net SONGS impact on core earnings was a positive $0.02 per share compared to last year. Our fourth quarter results include recognition of revenue for the rate of return on the SONGS regulatory asset. We also had a $0.05 benefit from lower O&M costs. The largest item was lower severance expense. Taxes and other items were a net benefit of $0.04 per share, led by $0.07 in higher income tax benefits. Most of this relates to repair deductions that we talked about previously. At the Edison International parent company level, results were a loss of $0.01 per share, compared to income of $0.02 per share last year, which is mainly due to the income from Edison Capital and tax benefits. The loss of $0.01 this quarter includes higher income from Edison Capital and lower tax benefits. As we have indicated, Edison Capital’s remaining low income housing portfolio continues to wind down as units are sold. Turning to noncore items, SCE recorded a net $0.08 per share benefit during the fourth quarter from a revised estimate of the impact of the SONGS settlement. There are a number of items that make up the $0.08, including the return on SONGS regulatory asset from April 1 through September 30 of this year and an accrual of a contribution to the University of California for greenhouse gas research. At the parent, we also recorded $0.12 per share benefit in discontinued operations related to resolution of uncertain tax positions from settlement of our 2003 to 2006 federal income tax years and other tax impacts related to EME. As a reminder, EIX has net operating losses and tax credit carryforwards from EME that will be monetized in future years as part of our settlement with EME creditors. These tax benefits were approximately $1.1 billion at year end. We also recorded $0.01 per share net benefit at the holding company related to allocation of income tax attributes to tax equity investors and projects developed by SoCore Energy on what is called the Hypothetical Liquidation at Book Value, or HLBV, accounting method. Because HLBV accounting procedures produces income not related to project portfolio performance, we classify this income as noncore. Please turn to page three. For the full year, core earnings were $4.59 per share, versus $3.80 in 2013. For SCE, this improvement is mainly due to rate base growth. Year-end 2014 rate base was $23.3 billion, a $2.2 billion increase over the prior year. In addition, SCE recorded higher net tax benefits totaling $0.16 per share, principally from repair deductions and resolution of uncertain tax positions. A number of other smaller items complete the picture. At the holding company, core losses were comparable to last year at $0.09 per share. This remains lower than expected, primarily due to higher income from Edison Capital. I know many of you are interested in tracking our earnings relative to our guidance, so I’ll cover that next. Please turn to page four. This slide shows a reconciliation of core earnings to guidance over the full year period. I will focus on the final three months of the year, that took us from $4.30 midpoint guidance in October to actual core earnings of $4.59. As you can see, the increase is $0.29. First, it’s $0.10 per share of income tax benefits from additional repair and cost of removal deductions recorded in the fourth quarter. Next are the two items I mentioned earlier, the $0.05 per share benefit from the revised determination of rate base and $0.04 of energy efficiency awards. The balance relates to cost savings and a number of small items at $0.05 per share. Holding company core results were $0.04 per share better than expected, primarily due to Edison Capital’s affordable housing project revenues. Please turn to page five. SCE’s capital spending forecast changed slightly from our prior forecast, due to timing of transmission capital expenditures. Actual 2014 capital spending totaled $4 billion, $100 million below our forecast. Our outlook for 2015 spending is down $100 million and up $200 million in 2016. Please note we continue to use the 12% variability between the range and request capital expenditure forecast. Please turn to page six. Our rate base forecast remains consistent with the 7% to 9% compound annual growth rates. Based on a number of changes, we’ve revised downward our rate base forecast by a net $300 million by 2017. As the slide shows, this reflects an average reduction of $400 million from bonus depreciation, an average reduction of $100 million for timing of transmission spending, and a positive $200 million adjustment upward to update deferred taxes related to our SmartConnect project. Please note that the capital spending and rate base forecasts do not include electric vehicle charging, energy storage, or distribution resource planned expenditures. The lion’s share of this future spending will likely occur beyond the current forecast period. Please turn to page seven. This page updates the interest rate trends for the CPUC cost of capital trigger mechanism. Recently, CPUC approved a one-year extension of our cost of capital mechanism. We must now file our 2017 cost of capital application in April 2016. The trigger mechanism will remain in effect for 2016. However, based on the movement of the Moody’s BAA bond index thus far, it seems unlikely that the current return on common equity of 10.45% would change for 2016. Our FERC filed rate settlement remains in place through the end of 2017. Under the settlement, the return on common equity can be reopened after June 30 of this year. Next, I’d like to touch on some financial considerations related to 2015 earnings, given the absence of guidance. Please turn to page eight. On this page, we have included some important factors to consider in refining your earnings estimates until we can provide formal guidance. The capital spending and rate base forecasts are taken from pages four and five of this presentation. Both CPUC and FERC return on common equity remain unchanged at 10.45%. We have some carryover items on energy efficiency awards from prior years. The potential earnings opportunity for 2015 is up to $0.05 rather than the more typical $0.03 per single year. Please keep in mind that some of the carryover items will likely be contested by other parties, and there is no assurance that energy efficiency earnings will be approved. Another positive item is the completion in January of the SONGS regulatory assets financing. The approved settlement let SCE finance this asset with 100% debt. The settlement also requires that we share with our customers the cost savings of this financing if the rate is below the 2.62% return on the regulatory asset. SCE completed this financing with a weighted average cost of debt of 2.2%. The blended average rate increases over time due to debt amortization. After the cost sharing with customers, there is a very modest earnings benefit. However, the financing has the added benefit of ultimately freeing up approximately $400 million of common equity. As we recover the regulatory asset, this amount will decline over time. At year-end 2014, SCE’s 13-month weighted average equity ratio for regulatory purposes was 48.4%. The SONGS regulatory asset totaled $1.288 billion at year-end 2014. Of this amount, $919 million earns the 2.62% return, $345 million earns a commercial paper rate, and the balance earns no return. For 2015 and beyond, we believe that the return on SONGS regulatory assets will roughly match the financing costs. I will also remind you that our quarter earnings results will not reflect the revenues requested in the 2015 GRC, and accordingly won’t have the typical profile during the year. Until we receive a final GRC decision, we plan to record revenues based on the 2014 authorized revenue requirement. Please turn to page nine. The next slide highlights the details of our dividend policy that Ted has already touched on. I’d like to reinforce our view that EIX has one of the better opportunities among large cap utilities for rate base, earnings, and dividend growth. Please turn to page ten. This last slide captures our strategic framework. Ted has touched on many of the major points already. To summarize, we are very focused on delivering on our organic growth opportunity. We have good growth visibility from our wire spending and the prospect for continued growth from a number of new initiatives. Moreover, as we have previously said, we will continue to work to optimize our cost structure and improve our operational efficiency. Thanks. I will now turn the call over to the operator for questions.
Operator:
[Operator instructions.] The first question comes from Michael Weinstein with UBS.
Michael Weinstein:
I wanted to ask kind of a bigger picture question here, as we’re thinking about this roadmap that you all are getting ready to file. And I hear you in the broader elements here. You’ve got storage, you’ve got efficiency, you’ve got renewables in the background. What’s going to be different versus the individual dockets here that we have filed? How does this bring it together? How does this, from your perspective, change the capital spending plan? And perhaps it’s the different time period, but just could you elaborate a little bit?
Jim Scilacci:
I’ll start out, then I’ll turn it over to Pedro for some additional comments. So the filing is coming up in the second quarter, or the first part of the third quarter, and we have a series of questions that PUC has asked us to address. A lot of them are really what’s happening in the system and how we plan to address it to encourage and incorporate more distributed energy resources in a distribution system. At least the initial filing is not an investment filing. It’s really a description of what needs to be done, and from our view. Others will have, I’m sure, different views. We will subsequently follow that up with probably some type of application or alternatively, we’ll include in our 2018 general rate case request the actual expenditures associated with this new plan. And from an overall perspective, stepping back and thinking about our capital expenditures, we’ve said that capital expenditures on average have been running about $4 billion a year. And we don’t want to suggest that these new programs either will take it up or drop it down. We think that generally going forward capital expenditures will stay in that same zone, even with these new initiatives. So I’ll pause there and turn it over to Pedro for additional elaboration, if you’d like to add anything.
Pedro Pizarro:
No, Jim, I think you covered it very well. And the July 1 filing has a fairly [unintelligible] set of questions that the PUC has posed, and they really go to the nuts and bolts of how will the grid need to evolve in order to accommodate deployment of distributed energy resources and look at the grid’s capacity to integrate them, look at things like the [locational] value at various points across our grid. And so a piece of this is mechanical, but there’s a broader piece around how does the grid continue to evolve and [unintelligible] raise questions and provide some insights on what are some of the technologies and what’s the evolution of that grid over time. And then as Jim said, we haven’t determined this yet, but we’ll have the option of either including investment opportunities that we see in our future rate case cycles. Potentially, there might be an opportunity to do a separate filing if we saw a very pressing near term need, but that’s work that we have underway right now in determining what those next steps are and developing the filing for July 1.
Michael Weinstein:
Excellent. And perhaps a follow up, and once again, congratulations on the overall results for the year, but given how successful the cost savings were, particularly relative to the October 28 guidance, what exactly is that saying year over year for the run rate through most of this year in terms of the cost savings. In the [unintelligible] sense/other, is there any way to read that into 2015 without providing guidance here?
Jim Scilacci:
We can’t. We have the general rate case. We really have to answer that first question, how the PUC establishes the authorized level of revenue requirements, then we’ll have an opportunity after that to come back out and give you our views on what it could be. But I just want to emphasize, we will continue, as I said in my script, to look for opportunities to reduce our costs.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Steven Fleishman with Wolfe Research.
Steven Fleishman:
Jim, maybe just on the slide eight, of the factors. So, just simplistically, would you suggest a simple kind of rate base, times equity, times ROE, plus the energy efficiency, and no AFDC earnings, we should assume, and nothing meaningfully from the SONGS items? And that’s as simple as that?
Jim Scilacci:
Yeah, I think that’s what we’re strongly suggesting you go towards, because you have visibility on rate base and rate base growth, and then return on common equity, obviously, is not changing. We’re not changing the share count. The energy efficiency is going to be somewhere in that 3% to 5% range, and we won’t know until later on in the year if there’s an opportunity for anything beyond that, or the hurdle that we’re going to have to climb over. So I think that’s the best and safest way to do it for now.
Steven Fleishman:
And I guess the one other missing piece is just the parent drag, which came in a little bit better with this Edison Capital income. Is that something that we should continue to see get a little better, or should we go back to the $0.10 to $0.15 that’s typically been a drag?
Jim Scilacci:
I think we’ve indicated that the parent spending is a little over a penny a month, and we see that’s probably the appropriate level. And what’s been happening either tax benefits or sale of property through Edison Capital has come through. And we don’t forecast the Edison Capital side. It’s more serendipity if anything else. So I think it’s better to look at the actual run rate of costs, absent these other things.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Ashar Khan with Visium.
Ashar Khan:
Jim, what you’re suggesting is that the SONGS will reap zero earnings per share to the bottom line?
Jim Scilacci:
Yeah, I should have mentioned that. Steve asked that question. Thanks for picking it up. And what I said in my prepared remarks was we believe that the return on the regulatory asset, that portion that’s earning 2.62%, and the financing that we put in place, they tend to offset one another. So therefore, there won’t be any earnings going to the bottom line for San Onofre going forward. The other piece we talked about, there’s a significant amount of nuclear fuel, which we were already financing with 100% debt at a commercial paper rate. So that seems to be match funded. So net-net, I don’t see any change from that going forward that we should expect any earnings from San Onofre besides the cost. Scott, want to add anything?
Scott Cunningham:
Just the other thing, just to remind everyone, we had already taken SONGS out of the rate base at the time of our announcement. So it has been out for some period of time, so the rate base comparisons are apples and apples.
Ashar Khan:
And then secondly, Jim, the equity ratio that you gave us, the 13-month average, did that take out SONGS through this new financing mechanism that you mentioned? So SONGS is out of it, and you’re at 48.4? Did I hear that correct?
Jim Scilacci:
So, SONGS doesn’t come out of the regulatory capital structure until after we did the financing. So it’s included in the 48.4 that I mentioned, and now it comes out when we do the financing. And the financing wasn’t completed until January, so when we release first quarter earnings, you’ll be able to see the actual equity ratio based, say, on SONGS.
Ashar Khan:
So that would, then, theoretically increase the equity ratio, right, once that thing goes out? Am I correct?
Jim Scilacci:
Yes.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Stephen Byrd from Morgan Stanley.
Stephen Byrd:
Wondered if you could just talk at a high level about the latest data play in terms of the dialog on net metering policy. I know there’s a proceeding and review underway, but I’m just curious, as you see the debate continue to unfold, any comments you might have on that debate.
Jim Scilacci:
We’re in the midst of a multiple phase at the commission, and it’s teed up. The next slate of decisions we’ll be getting from the commission has to do with the [fixed] charges and the tiers, and then after that, we have the net energy metering, the new tariff associated with that. And I’ll pause here and look over at Pedro. Is there anything else? Maybe the timeframe, of when we’re expecting it?
Pedro Pizarro:
I think you covered it right. I think on the tiers and [unintelligible] charges, we’re expecting a determination from the commission in the second quarter, if things stay on good timing. And then the NEM would be later in the year.
Stephen Byrd:
Okay, so we’ll just watch that. I guess just separately, away from the utility, as you think about your renewables strategy broadly, again outside of the utility, as you see the business continuing to evolve, any high level thoughts we should be thinking about? I know you’ve talked a lot in the past about looking at how the business is going to change, and obviously there’s a lot of changes on the utility side, but just curious, outside of that, anything lately in terms of strategic thinking on renewables beyond the utility?
Ted Craver:
I’ll take a crack at this. Very broadly speaking, as I kind of indicated in my opening comments, we see the potential in the competitive businesses to serve customers outside of the 50,000 square mile territory of Southern California Edison. Most of the work that we’ve done up to this point has been focused more on commercial and industrial customers outside of the territory. Second to that, I would say, are various potential electrification initiatives. So these would be projects that would further electrification. We think that actually fits into a lot of the effort across the country, but particularly here in California, to move towards a low carbon economy, moving towards higher levels of electrification in, say, the transportation sector, goods movement, water, some of the other areas. All of that helps move the economy towards a lower carbon footprint. So those are kind of the second bucket of areas that we’re continuing to look at. Final point I’ll make is we’ve tried to be fairly high level about the things that we’re looking at on that side. I think you know us well enough by now, we don’t like to come out with a lot of fanfare up front. We’d rather see what we can deliver and then talk about that. So at this point, most of the effort is on the distributed generation activities around SoCore and how that fits into our kind of broader strategy on the commercial and industrial customer side.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Hugh Wynne with Sanford Bernstein.
Hugh Wynne:
You all have mentioned on a couple of occasions the governor’s vision for the upgrading of the grid, and also the need to continue to replace aging components and improve the reliability of your existing grid. Looking forward to your capex program in a longer timeframe, would you be surprised to see the more or less $4.5 billion rate of capex that you’re forecasting for 2015, 2016, 2017 to continue into the next GRC or would you be expecting factors to come into play that would move that $4.5 billion materially up or materially down?
Jim Scilacci:
I think what we’re attempting to say, and I struggled with it in an earlier question, my response was I think the $4 billion is probably in the right zone, and we’ll just have to see how things unfold. If you go through the piece parts, distribution has been stepping up in the total level of expenditures over the last several GRCs, and we’re still working to get our replacement rates to levels that we think we need to be at to maintain the reliability of the electric system. So you could see distribution step up somewhat more from where we are today. Transmission is related to some of these large projects that we have flowing through, and we had very modest transmission spending in years past, and that stepped up as a result of all the renewable interconnections that we were doing. Generation has typically been a very small part of our overall equation. It was really just replacement capital expenditures, mainly at our nuclear plants, and it’s dropped down to maybe about $100 million a year. Going forward, we’ll have to see, as we lay out the distribution resources plan, how significant and how fast the commission would want to move to make some of these improvements. We’ve put out numbers on the electric vehicle charging. It’s approximately $350 million over a multiyear period of time. There’s some storage expenditures. So I think it’s best and safest to assume that that $4 billion is probably the appropriate level until we can get more information in the public domain.
Ted Craver:
Let me just throw in one other piece. I think a big consideration here is how fast you want to move towards modernizing the grid, converting it from largely an electromechanical system to a more digitized system capable of two-way flows of electricity, so on and so forth, all the stuff you’ve heard us talk about before. If you envision doing that over a three to five year period, then I think you’ll probably be looking at higher numbers. If you envision doing that over a five to seven year period, it tamps it down a little bit. If you envision doing it over a ten year period, more modest yet. So I think a big component of trying to sort this through is the pace with which these investments get made, not just the absolute number.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Ali Agha with SunTrust.
Ali Agha:
My question, Ted, perhaps for you, wanted to dial a little more into your thinking on the dividend. And when you talk about getting to your targeted payout ratio over time, there’s a range there to get, you know, to the middle of that range. But the reason I bring it up is when we run the math on the rate base math, as Jim alluded to, for the core earnings power of the utility, it’s going to be significantly lower than what you’ve reported in 2014 with all the tax benefits and cost savings, etc., that we had to [unintelligible] in the GRC. So arguably, one could argue you’re pretty much close to the low end of that range, if you run the math, along those lines. So I’m just curious, when you talk about still stepping up, what is it that you’re envisioning for this dividend?
Ted Craver:
You’ve put your finger on a really good point. I think we’ve tended to think of it more in terms of what I would call the sustainable or durable earnings. It’s always hard to predict, certainly 2014 was a good case of it, just how much you’re going to have in the way of some of these other earnings points. And of course I guess it’s possible you could have years where you end up having some of the more unusual items that work against you, but fundamentally, we kind of look at it as the core earnings power of the utility and the dividend is tied to SCE’s earnings. It really is the rate base model. So that’s the way we tend to look at it. All of that said, you’ll see continued significant growth in rate base and therefore we see good growth in earnings. And in order to move the payout ratio up, we expect the growth rate in dividend increases to be higher than the growth rate in earnings. Otherwise, we won’t make any progress on moving the payout ratio up.
Ali Agha:
Understood. But just to clarify, the goal is not to necessarily just get to the lower end and say hey, we’re there. The goal is to be somewhere in the middle of that range that you’ve given us?
Ted Craver:
Well, of course I won’t take the bait to pinpoint where it will be inside the 45% to 55% payout ratio, but that’s the target that we’ve had, and I think we look at all of the factors, including what do we see the forward run rate in rate base growth, because that’s really what will drive earnings. And as I’ve said, we see good solid growth in rate base, therefore earnings, therefore dividends.
Ali Agha:
And second question, if I could, unrelated to that, Jim, when you talked about that penny a month sort of run rate drag for the parent, just remind me, does that include any contribution from your non-utility activity, sort of in there? And assuming your vision plays out as you expect for the non-utility business, when do you think you’d be in a position to break that out as a separate segment?
Jim Scilacci:
It’s a good question, on breaking out the separate segment. It’s too small now to justify doing that. We tried to provide, when you look at the K, some additional information in terms of the investment levels. But a little bit more than $0.01 a month was just in totality on a normal run rate basis, and it excluded activities at Edison Capital, which are very hard to forecast or predict. So without Edison Capital, and any other tax benefits, we think in the normal course, we’d be hitting about a little over a penny a month. So you can do the math there, and it’s consistent with what we’ve said in the past.
Operator:
The next question comes from Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs.
Michael Lapides:
Jim, just kind of a quick update. You’ve got a significant under-recovered fuel balance, kind of the ERA that’s outstanding. Can you talk about whether that ERA will grow some more, meaning the under-recovered balance will become a larger balance, or when that will convert to cash for SoCal Ed?
Jim Scilacci:
Good question. There’s many parts associated with that, and I think when you have a chance to take a look at our K, there’s a full description in our disclosures that breaks down the piece parts. But we’re hoping, if the commission renders a final decision in the 2015 ERA proceeding, which is before them now, that we should be fully collected in our under-collection by year-end. And the piece parts coming to help that are the rate increase and the SONGS settlement allows us to transfer some of the over-collections to that under-collection. And another critical piece is our decommissioning decision, because we had dollars that were spent for decommissioning, but once we get approval to get access to the decommissioning trust, we’ll transfer those dollars over to the ERA under-collection. And hopefully by year-end, we’ll be in good shape. And obviously, the thing that’s going to change that up or down is what happens with gas prices. And based on the forecasts we used for 2015, I know for a fact that we’re probably under-running the actual expenditures, because we used a higher forecast than gas prices are right now.
Michael Lapides:
So, to simplify, that $1.2 billion or so should convert to cash over the next 12 months, cash that improves the balance sheet of SoCal Ed. How do you think about utilizing that cash?
Jim Scilacci:
Well, some of it’s just moving from one side of the pocket to the other, because we had the dollars sitting, and then we just transferred over as part of the SONGS settlement. And some of it we have commercial paper borrowings to support the under-collections. And those will go to [unintelligible] those short term borrowings. Net-net-net, we probably won’t have much in the way of excess cash. We’ll have excess equity, as we talked about, from the SONGS regulatory asset financing. But most of the cash is going to be used to pay off other things that are maybe outstanding or help to fund capital expenditures going on in the utility.
Michael Lapides:
Last thing, when you look at the holding company level debt, both short term and long term, it looks like it’s up a bit year over year, kind of in the 2013 into 2014. Can you talk about what your goal is in terms of how much both short term and long term debt you want to carry at the holdco level?
Jim Scilacci:
Yeah, that’s a good question. We have outstanding a $400 million note that comes due I think in 2017, if I’m not mistaken. And we’re considering what to do with that now. We added additional commercial paper borrowings and obviously note payables to the EME creditors. The total obligation was $600 million. We paid $200 million. We’ve got two more payments of $200 million in September this year and September of next year for $400 million. And the whole source of repayment for the majority of the borrowings we have outstanding today really will be from the monetization of the EME tax benefits. I said in my script, we’ve got $1.1 billion of NOLs and tax credit carryforwards, and if we don’t get an extension of bonus depreciation in 2015, likely SCE will be fully taxable as it runs off its NOLs, and it will be then paying taxes to the federal government. Bonus doesn’t apply to state government, State of California, so we’re obviously paying taxes for the state. And then we’ll start rapidly amortizing EME benefits. One of the wildcards here we’ll have to consider, and Ted mentioned in his comments, if we do get resolution of the SONGS litigation with MHI, we would look to take an abandonment loss in the year that’s resolved. We have to file a private letter ruling and we’ll take a writeoff. And so that could affect the full timing of the monetization of the tax benefits, but I think it’s going to take it out to 2017, possibly in early 2018, and fully amortize off the $1.1 billion of EME tax benefits.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Travis Miller with Morningstar.
Travis Miller:
I was wondering about the operating costs savings here. How much of that is in the 2015 to 2017 GRC? To the extent that you guys got more operating cost savings than perhaps were in the GRC request, is there any potential to go back and adjust that? Could regulators come back and say, no, we need to adjust your operating cost forecasts? Or are we signed, sealed, and delivered here and just waiting for the commission?
Jim Scilacci:
So, the full case is before the commission. The hearings occurred in January, and so it’s off to the ALJs to draft a proposed decision. Included in the case were some O&M savings that we identified as we were preparing the case, and we’re proposing that we would share 50% of those potential savings. And beyond that, I can’t comment. I don’t know what the commission’s going to do, or what the ALJs may propose, and we’ll just have to see how it ultimately unfolds. But one point I just want to emphasize, we will continue to look for cost savings to try to improve our efficiencies.
Travis Miller:
So there is a chance the regulators could come back and talk about the request, but not necessarily likely.
Jim Scilacci:
We’ll just have to see what they come back with. We won’t know until we get a proposed decision.
Operator:
The next question comes from Steven Fleishman with Wolfe Research.
Steven Fleishman:
Just a separate follow up question. Ted, maybe you could just give us a little bit of color of, you know, we see all the headlines on PG&E and ex parte issues, and then you made one potential ex parte filing. Just how much is this impacting the ability to function on the normal things that you have to get done at the commission, including getting the GRC done? And also, just how should we think about the risk of you potentially having additional ex parte filings?
Ted Craver:
In terms of affecting the business, I would say it doesn’t really have a significant effect on the business. This is a fairly arcane area, but I would just say generally speaking, the ex parte rules, particularly on matters like the San Onofre matter, the OII, that’s really designed to provide equal access to all parties to the proceeding with equal time. So I think one of the misconceptions in something like SONGS OII is that you’re precluded from having conversations. You’re not. It’s just the rules are designed to make sure that if we have conversations with decision makers, that those are noticed, that we include in there how much time we spent with which decision maker, so that all the other parties have the equal access, equal amount of time. That’s the whole concept behind it. So I don’t see any of this as hurting the ability to do business. It’s complicated and cumbersome, and sometimes kind of difficult on the interpretation of some of the specific provisions, but fundamentally, when we have proceedings before the commission, we follow the rules, we go about doing the business the way it’s really set up to do it. There’s plenty of opportunity in all of those proceedings for all parties to be heard. That’s kind of the point of having these things before the commission. So I don’t see any big element there. And I got so warmed up on that part of the question, I forgot the second part of your question.
Steven Fleishman:
I guess just the impact on getting your GRC done. More just because the commission is so in the spotlight and dealing with this.
Ted Craver:
I don’t see it. I mean, I’ll choose my words a little carefully here. We are pretty soon going to be in the third month of 2015, the GRC was supposed to be completed at the end of last year. Just like three years ago, we’re already now well into the next year. That makes it a little more complicated to run the business, but I don’t see that as being the result of ex parte stuff or any of that. That’s just the process of getting through a very complicated proceeding, like a GRC. So I would say generally, I don’t see it having any big impact.
Operator:
The next question comes from Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs.
Michael Lapides:
Real quick, there’s both a lawsuit proceeding as well as a re-hearing request to unwind the SONGS OII settlement. Can you just talk about the process for both of those, and kind of what the complainants are seeking, or what their grounds are?
Jim Scilacci:
Let me introduce Adam Umanoff. He is our EIX general counsel. He joined us in January. We’re happy to have him. So, Adam, could you pick up that question?
Adam Umanoff:
Sure, Jim. Happy to do so. Good afternoon. You asked about the application for re-hearing and a federal lawsuit. I’ll take them one at a time. An application for re-hearing was filed by the Coalition to Decommission San Onofre, and that was filed in the end of last year, mid-December 2014. They’re basically asking for the California Public Utility Commission to reconsider their decision approving the SONGS settlement. And the basis for their request is a bunch of alleged procedural irregularities in the proceeding undertaken by the CPUC. It’s our view that there really is no legitimate basis for the CPUC to overturn the settlement based upon the theories advanced by the Coalition to Decommission San Onofre, but of course that’s for the CPUC to decide. All the parties to the SONGS settlement have filed a joint response in early January, rejecting the request for a re-hearing. The CPUC does not operate under a firm deadline to respond, but they normally respond within three to five months, so we should expect to hear from the CPUC by the middle of March to the middle of May. Separately, another plaintiff, Citizen’s Oversight, who happens to be represented by the same lawyer who represents the Coalition to Decommission San Onofre, filed a federal court action down in San Diego and basically raised some constitutional theories that the SONGS settlement was an impermissible taking of rate payer property. That suit was filed in November of 2014. Both we and the CPUC filed motions to dismiss at the end of January. There will be some further paperwork back and forth as the plaintiff replies and we again reply in February and March. And if all goes well, we expect a decision from the federal court in April of 2015. So in a couple of months.
Operator:
That was the last question. I will now turn the call back to Mr. Cunningham.
Scott Cunningham:
Thanks very much, everyone, for participating, and if you have any follow up questions, you know where to find us. Thanks very much, and have a good evening.
Executives:
Scott Cunningham - VP, IR Ted Craver - Chairman, CEO Jim Scilacci - EVP, CFO Rob Adler - EVP, General Counsel
Analysts:
Greg Gordon - ISI Group Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank Hugh Wynne - Sanford Bernstein Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Dan Eggers - Credit Suisse Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs Kit Konolige - BGC Partners Ali Agha - SunTrust Shahriar Pourreza - Citigroup Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Travis Miller - Morningstar Neel Mitra - Tudor, Pickering
Operator:
Good afternoon, and welcome to the Edison International Third Quarter 2014 Financial Teleconference. My name is Sheila and I'll be the operator today. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the call over to Mr. Scott Cunningham, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Cunningham, you may begin your conference.
Scott Cunningham:
Thank you, Sheila, and good afternoon everyone. Our principal speakers today will be Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Ted Craver and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Jim Scilacci. Also with us are other members of the management team. The presentation that accompanies Jim's comments, the earnings press release and our Form 10-Q are available on our Web site at www.edisoninvestor.com. After the call, we will be posting Ted's and Jim's prepared remarks. We will be filing and distributing our regular business update the week of November 3rd, ahead of the EEI financial conference in Dallas. The presentation will have the usual additional information on current topics. During this call, we will make forward-looking statements about the financial outlook for Edison International and its subsidiaries and about other future events. Actual results could differ materially from current expectations. Important factors that could cause different results are set forth in our SEC filings. We encourage you to read these carefully. The presentation includes certain outlook assumptions, as well as reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure. When we get to Q&A, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. If you have further questions, please return to the queue. With that, I'll turn the call over to Ted Craver.
Ted Craver:
Thank you, Scott, and good afternoon everyone. I intend to keep my remarks fairly short today. I'm pleased to report that Edison International has delivered another quarter of strong financial results with third quarter core earnings of $1.52 per share up 7% from last year. I'm particularly pleased to note that we have also increased our full year earnings guidance. We now anticipate 2014 core earnings will be in the range of $4.25 to $4.35 per share. This is an increase of $0.60 per share over the midpoint of guidance we provided last February. We continue to deliver solid growth in returns from investing in needed infrastructure to support public safety and reliability as well as California's public policy objectives of creating a low carbon economy and technological innovation. We should note that some of the increase in our core earnings outlook for the year is made up of items such as taxes that we cannot expect will reoccur each year. These items create a higher base against which earnings growth in the future years will look less impressive in year-over-year comparisons. However, these additional earnings increase equity which allows us to make more substantial investments in needed electric infrastructure in the future without needing to issue stock. The high level of investment we have made over the last several years in electric infrastructure coupled with our firm belief that it was not financially prudent to issue equity to manufacture larger dividend increases has caused our dividend to fall below the industry averages for yield and earnings payout ratio. To repeat what I've said before, we are committed to bringing our dividend back into our targeted payout ratio of 45% to 55% of SCE's earnings in steps over time. We recognize that readdressing this imbalance is job number one for many of our investors. The higher earnings outlook we announced today makes it easier to deliver on this objective. We made important progress since our last Investor Call in resolving key uncertainties that have detracted from our longer term potential. On October 9, the Administrative Law Judges recommended adoption of the amended SONGS settlement. Their proposed decision found that the settlement met all of the legal requirements for comprehensive settlement and that it was reasonable in light of the whole record consistent with law and in the public interest. There will also be oral arguments this Friday. All of the settling parties remain in support of the settlement. Although, we do not know the timing of CPUC action, the proposed decision could be considered as early as the CPUC's November 20th meeting. The commission posts agendas 10 days prior to its meeting. The amended SONGS settlement includes several modifications requested by the Administrative Law Judges and the Assigned Commission. The principle change agreed to by the settling parties involved the formula for sharing any future recoveries from insurance and Mitsubishi heavy industries. Another change added a 50:50 sharing of any financing arbitrage between the authorized 2.62% rate of return on the SONGS regulatory assets and actual financing costs. The utilities were also asked to fund $25 million over five years for carbon-related research initiatives. Our share of this will be $20 million and will be funded with shareholder dollars through our corporate philanthropy program. I want to give a quick update on the NEIL insurance claims process. Under the amended settlement, customers will net of proceeds, net of recovery cost, I'm sorry, receive 95% of any insurance proceeds related to the purchased power under what's called the outage policy. Edison shareholders will receive 5%. SCE has currently filed $334 million in outage insurance claims. We don't expect to receive a first determination of coverage by the insurer until late in the year or perhaps early next. If we disagree with NEIL's determination, the policy provides for a dispute resolution process. Under the amended settlement, MHI claims would be shared 50:50 between customers and shareholders net of cost of recovery. Our contract with Mitsubishi calls for international arbitration of disputes, the three arbitrators have now been selected and the process for organizing and scheduling the arbitration has begun. We don't intend to provide ongoing progress reports unless and until we can report material development. We continue to expect this to be a lengthy process. We are committed to representing our customers and our shareholders forcefully during this proceeding. During the quarter, we also completed the final steps in our settlement related to the Edison Machine Energy bankruptcy. In late August, we finalized the 2015 and 2016 payment amounts to the EME reorganization trust consistent with the settlement reached earlier this year. The final payment increased by $9 million above our prior estimates due to an increase in the estimated tax benefits retained. I would like to turn finally to the status of SCE's general rate case. Evidentiary hearings have now concluded as scheduled. Intervener testimony called for material reductions in electric system investment from what we filed. In our policy and rebuttal testimony and in the hearings, we continue to assert as the commission as supported in the past that preventative maintenance and investment in the grid maximizes customer reliability and public safety. The current schedule continues to foreshadow a GRC decision some time in 2015. With that, I'd now turn the call over to Jim Scilacci.
Jim Scilacci:
Thanks, Ted and good afternoon everyone. My comments will cover third quarter and year-to-date earnings. I will reaffirm 7% to 9% rate-based growth forecast; our increased earnings guidance and our plans for 2015 earnings guidance. Please turn to Page 3 of the presentation. As Ted as already mentioned, the EIX's third quarter core earnings per share are $1.52 per share or $0.10 above last year. SCE's third quarter core earnings increased $0.08 per share to $1.54 per share largely driven by higher revenues for rate-based growth. This increase was partially offset by lower income tax benefits. In the third quarter of last year, SCE recorded benefit of $0.06 per share related to IRS guidance for generation prepared deductions. Their earnings drivers shown right on the Slide are consistent with this year's trends of core earnings holding results. Higher CPUC and FERC authorized revenues provide for escalation of O&M return, depreciation, financing and taxes much of this is consistent with ongoing rate-based growth. SONGS results are at $0.03 per share lower than the third quarter last year. As we look ahead to 2015, we expect to recover our actual SONGS costs from the nuclear decommissioning trusts. We have submitted an advice letter to the CPUC to access the trust and have filed our decommissioning plans with the NRC assuming the amended settlement agreement is approved by the CPUC; it provides a return on long-term debt and preferred stock which should be roughly convertible to our cost of financing the SONGS regulatory asset. We will also share with ratepayers cost savings of any refinancing the SONGS regulatory asset at a lower – at a rate lower in the settlements authorized rate of 2.62%. At this point in time, we are not forecasting any savings between the 2.62% and the expected refinancing cost. One thing to note, as we continue to contain our O&M costs, which are pretty much flat with the third quarter last year after eliminating O&M related to SONGS and Four Corners. Our 2015 general rate case filing incorporates all savings from 2012 to 2014. Going forward, we have proposed sharing 50% of any 2015 savings from in-fight IT and customer service cost initiatives. Beyond these initiatives, we will continue to constantly speak to improve our cost and service performance. Turning to Edison International parent and another, as a reminder, this includes the co-holding company costs, new business costs under Edison Energy, the remaining investments for Edison Capital, which includes – which continues to wind down and two small investments at Edison Machine Energy. Edison Capital and EME are subsidiaries of Edison Machine Group. During the third quarter, Edison Machine Group contributed $0.03 per share from affordable housing projects. The holding company and Edison Energy costs was higher by $0.02 while we had additional tax benefit of $0.01 per share bringing the total impact from EIX parent and another to a positive $0.02 per share of earnings. The non-core item this quarter relates to recording the completion of the EME settlement. Please turn to Page 4. The year-to-date increase in earnings over last year is driven by higher authorized revenues for escalation of O&M return, depreciation, financing and taxes. Our year-to-date earnings increase also reflects reduced O&M ending from lower severance costs and higher tax benefits. As we discussed in our second quarter call, we recorded $0.09 per share tax benefit from a change in estimate of uncertain tax position. This primarily relates to progress made with the IRS in settling the 2003 through 2006 audit cycle. During the second quarter call, we also mentioned that SCE had earned $0.03 per share for Californian energy crisis litigation settlements. Other minor factors bring year-to-date SCE core earnings to $3.50 per share. Net of holding company cost, EIX core earnings year-to-date increased $0.52 per share to $3.50 per share. Turning to Page 5, we updated SCE's capital expenditure forecast through 2017. The three year forecast is about $200 million higher. As you can see in the chart, spending is forecast to be down by about $300 million in 2015 from updated CPUC's spending and timing of FERC transmission projects. However, an additional $300 million of FERC's transmission spending is now included in 2016 and 2017 for the Coolwater-Lugo and Mesa Loop-in projects. Moreover, our forecast now includes over $200 million of new spending roughly split between 2016 and 2017 to begin converting certain mobile home parks from a master meter to individually metered global homes. This comes has a result of a March CPUC decision that ordered a pilot program to convert 10% of mobile parks are safety and reliability reason. This pilot program is being handled outside of the general rate case process. At this point in time, it's not possible to predict if the CPUC will extend this program beyond the pilot phase. On Page 6, we have also reaffirmed SCE 7% to 9% annual rate case growth forecast. As we have discussed previously, a rate-based growth is depending upon the CPUC's decision and SCE's 2015 general rate case. Some interveners in the case have suggested productions, some capital expenditures that will result in lower rate-based growth. However, we have progressively responded during the rate case hearings on the need for continuing and in fact increasing infrastructure spending consistent with the commissions focus on public safety and reliability. We therefore believe the forecast range remains a reasonable one. More information on intervener positions is included in the presentation appendix. The final topic is guidance. Please turn to Page 7. We continue with the same approach to guidance that we showed you in February and again, in April. We start with the SCE rate base driven earnings estimate up $3.40 per share based on the midpoint of the rate-based forecast. Looking across the bottom of Slide, we have updated our guidance to reflect our current outlook for earnings and we have also assumed that the amended SONGS settlement is adopted this year. Our original guidance assumed a $0.07 per share negative impact related to SONGS. This is primarily from the lack of authorized revenues to cover the cost of debt-preferred stock. The settlement allows a partial return to SONGS regulatory asset of 2.62% thus providing $0.03 of incremental earnings. The amended settlement includes 5-year philanthropic contribution of the University California that totals $20 million. Our updated guidance accrues for the 5-year charitable contribution or $0.04 per share. There are other small items that net flow positive $0.01. The net effective of all these items is again a negative $0.07 per share for SONGS. The major positive items for our guidance relate to income taxes – higher income taxes benefit, cost savings and other items that we previously reported in our year-to-date result. Cost savings and other remain the largest element and we have increased from $0.35 per share in our original guidance to $0.69 per share. Income tax benefits are now forecasted at $0.41 per share compared to $0.14 previously. We also have removed 2014 energy efficiency earnings of $0.03 per share based on the CPUC's action delay processing of utilities energy efficiency award request. As a result, we would expect the energy efficiency awards in 2015 will include multiple years. The combined impact of these benefits is now $1.10 per share up $0.58 per share from the original $0.52 share estimate. We have also updated the Edison International parent and other costs estimate from $0.15 per share previously to $0.13 per share reflecting year-to-date results. This gets us to a new core earnings midpoint of $4.30 per share and the new core earnings range of $4.25 to $4.35 per share per year as Ted as already said. I will finish up with the comment on 2015 guidance. Please turn to Page 8. Based on the current GRC schedule, it is not likely that SCE will receive a final GRC decision by the time we report full year results in late February of next year. We intend to follow our prior practice of not providing 2015 earnings guidance until we receive a GRC decision. We are mindful of the importance of helping investors model their earnings outlook even in the absence of a decision. We believe that our rate-based forecast continues to be the best indicator of ongoing earnings power. Thanks. And now, I will turn the call over to the operator.
Operator:
Thank you. (Operator Instructions) The first question is from Greg Gordon of ISI Group. Your line is open.
Greg Gordon - ISI Group:
Thanks. Can you hear me okay?
Jim Scilacci:
Yes, Greg.
Greg Gordon - ISI Group:
Couple of questions. One is, can you tell us whether or not the ex parte communication situation that has evolved at PG&E has had any impact at all on your ability to conduct business at the CPUC, and if there is any potential for either a self-policing review or an external party looking for – looking into your communications with PUC?
Ted Craver:
Greg, its Ted. In terms of as that caused any kind of interruption and the business we have before the CPUC, I think probably the best thing I can point to is, the ongoing general rate case activities I think I mentioned in my comments that we are actually just finished up evidentiary hearings as scheduled. So at least from what we can see, there seems to be really something that's primarily focused on the San Bruno item as opposed to the activities that we have before the PUC. So we are certainly trying to make sure that all of our personnel know what's expected of them in terms of proper conduct with the PUC. We have compliance program. We have training. We have kind of redoubled efforts along those things just to make sure that that's very present in everyone's mind. But, beyond that really we are pretty much in business as usual.
Greg Gordon - ISI Group:
I know that you haven't been approached by the Attorneys General to disclose your communications in lieu of what they are doing over ECG?
Ted Craver:
No.
Greg Gordon - ISI Group:
Okay. Thanks. Second question, you said that you thought the energy efficiency decisions would all be multiple years of 2015. I know you keep telling us to use the rate base math when we think about the earnings power of the company and you have exclusively not given guidance for 2015 and beyond. Can you give us any sense of whether or not there will be items that are beyond rate base math that could potentially impact 2015 earnings and beyond?
Jim Scilacci:
Greg, this is Jim. What we will find on doing is, putting out a schedule that shows the energy efficiency potential earnings. This is on the public domain, we are just going to put it on a schedule where you can see which year was earned from and when we expect to receive it. That will be one helpful bit of information. But beyond that we won't predict shorter general rate case decision, if there is any potential O&M or tax benefit that could result in future periods. We would assume as a working assumption a lot of that is past back as part of the rate making process. And we will need a decision before we can really O&M in that number.
Greg Gordon - ISI Group:
Okay. When we will see that schedule?
Jim Scilacci:
That will probably be as part of our February where we could come out with our year end earnings. We will provide that information. Most of it's already in the public domain. We are just trying to get it so people can see it in one place.
Greg Gordon - ISI Group:
Great. Final question, when would you expect to make the next move on the dividend, is it going to be in the normal cycle year coming in December?
Ted Craver:
Greg, this is Ted. You are triple-dipping here today.
Jim Scilacci:
I think that was four, something like that.
Greg Gordon - ISI Group:
Sorry, I only have one question but it's in 27 parts.
Ted Craver:
It's creative. On the dividend, I mean I think everyone knows we have typically looked at that during our December Board meeting, but there is no such schedule to it. And that's something that we really leave for the Board to make a decision on and kind of the normal course when they have all of the facts in front of them. So there is a general practice, but no such schedule.
Greg Gordon - ISI Group:
Okay. Thanks guys.
Ted Craver:
You are welcome.
Operator:
The next question comes from Jonathan Arnold of Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank:
Good afternoon guys.
Ted Craver:
Hi, Jonathan.
Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank:
Could I just ask on the SONGS item in the guidance which is $0.07 negative but its composition is kind of different from what it was before. If I heard you right, the $0.04 piece the philanthropic contribution you booked the whole five-year thing upfront in 2014 or you intend to, is that correct?
Jim Scilacci:
Correct.
Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank:
Okay. And then the settlement is that sort of ongoing impact of the settlement or a one-time aspect of the settlement?
Jim Scilacci:
So the return on the debt in 50% of the preferred that's what I was referring to for the $0.03 positive with the assumption we will get a decision.
Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank:
So that's sort of full year impact?
Jim Scilacci:
Yes, yes.
Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank:
As we think about that line going forward Jim, is there and it's a slight drag from SONGS items in 2015 and beyond, is that the right way to think about that?
Jim Scilacci:
We will reset. As we said before a couple of years ago when this got started that the rate base is going to be readjusted and the debt and preferred and the common will now be based on the actual rate base. And we wouldn't expect that we have is separate SONGS item ongoing.
Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank:
That will just going to be a feature of whatever the new guidance has?
Jim Scilacci:
Correct.
Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank:
Okay. That's very helpful. Thank you. But then, could I just ask on the parent and other, your number to the tick down slightly, is that – is it directionally where parent costs are heading?
Jim Scilacci:
This one has been periodically, its hard to predict. We had some earnings going out from Edison Capital. Remember, we have been liquidating a low income housing portfolio there and it's hard to predict and we don't forecast earnings coming from that and periodically we get some earnings. So that's the primary reason why the parent other was down this quarter. But, that's what we said and I will keep by that statement that it's roughly it's a little – it's a little over $0.01 per month in cost from the holding company only.
Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank:
Is that what we should anticipate as a steady-state modeling outcome going forward absent some other change?
Jim Scilacci:
I will standby by 2014. And I don't see it changing appreciably going forward.
Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank:
Okay, great. Thank you, Jim.
Jim Scilacci:
Okay.
Operator:
The next question comes from Hugh Wynne of Sanford Bernstein. Your line is open.
Hugh Wynne - Sanford Bernstein:
Hi. Congratulations on a great quarter. I'd just like to know how one achieved an increase in cost savings from $0.37 to $0.69, how does that gets up?
Jim Scilacci:
Hugh, its Jim. Across the board a lot of different things going on, higher revenues, labor expense, its lower tax expense for related benefits. It's a lot of little things and remember we had higher severance expense last year lower this year. So the year-over-year changes had a factor on it too. So it's a number of different things. We have been predicting all long that there would be savings coming out this year that we will pass back as part of the rate making process that we are just seeing higher level of savings than what we had originally anticipated.
Hugh Wynne - Sanford Bernstein:
These are -- one that the savings are so substantial on the rate of increase and the savings are so substantial, but when it come to that kind of extrapolate into the future, the possibility that you might find savings in the next general rate case budget that could allow you then to exceed your expected earnings in the GRC, the coming GRC as well. Is that a realistic expectation? Or do you think that this is just sort of one-off cut in your operating maintenance expense that really cannot be replicated in the future?
Jim Scilacci:
Well, what I did say in my script that we will continue to look for cost and service improvements. The key thing that's not available here is, in terms of what the commission decides is going to be the O&M levels and our spending levels for 2015, 2016 and 2017. What the attrition mechanism might be for 2016 and 2017, those unknowns. So I think that's why we have been taking you back in my comments for 2015 guidance was, the one thing that we have a higher degree of confidence around is the rate-based forecast. And that's the true driver of earnings and we may have some transitory earnings or potential losses depending upon things how they evolve in both O&M and tax benefit. But the rate base is the true one guide towards a future earnings.
Hugh Wynne - Sanford Bernstein:
Great. Thank you very much.
Jim Scilacci:
Okay, Hugh.
Operator:
The next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith of UBS. Your line is open.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS:
Hi. Good afternoon.
Ted Craver:
Hi, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS:
So following up on the GRC if you will, what's the latest timeline, could you give us a little bit of an update on where we stand just given everything going on in the CPUC? And then perhaps the follow-up question and I will stick with just one follow-up here. How could that potentially impact the CapEx on the various timing outcomes of the GRC here?
Jim Scilacci:
Yes. Julien, its Jim. It's a good question. We concluded, Ted said today, hearings. That was an important milestone. And the next real key thing we got coming up, we have update hearings unless they change them in January, don't we Maria, Pedro? That is the last bit of information where the update for known changes that have occurred and there are some hearings around that. And then you got to get into filing your briefs and your closing briefs, reply briefs. And then it's on to the judges for drafting of the proposed decision. Normally just if you go back in prior years, the update hearings were typically in November of the year. So it looks like we're at least two, maybe three months behind just from looking at that schedule. But, I can't predict once we turn it over to the LJ's how long it's going to take them prepare the proposed decision. That is the key unknown. Your second question, thank you for keeping to two. The capital expenditures, part of what we do is, we look out over the three year period and we tend to send our capital expenditures, so we can have a steady state of work. If you go back and look over the last couple of years, we have been challenged to ramp-up our capital expenditures to reflect the level that was authorized and it had a lot to do with getting the crews in place in order to get the constant steady state of work. And we are trying to maintain that constant steady state of work without dropping back to a lower level of capital expenditures because we don't have certainty. So our view is, if they do come in, in lower capital expenditures, you can adjust your rate of spending in the prior year, so beyond 2015, so 2016 and 2017. So we have some flexibility around and how you schedule things over that three year period. But, we were trying to maintain a level of overall expenditures at this higher level because it really reflects a lot of work to get the crews ramped up to where we are today.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS:
But, ultimately it seems like the timeline on the actual rate case doesn't seem to be too impacted by the latest development, if I hear you correctly?
Jim Scilacci:
Yes. I think that's how we are going to operate the business. We are going to launch our O&M spending obviously because O&M is different and capital – three years to deal with capital. We only have one year for O&M. So we are very much carefully watch our O&M. But our capital, we want to maintain at the levels we have identified in our documents.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS:
Great. Thank you very much.
Jim Scilacci:
Okay, Julien.
Operator:
The next question comes from Dan Eggers of Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
Dan Eggers - Credit Suisse:
Hi, good afternoon guys.
Ted Craver:
Hi, Dan.
Dan Eggers - Credit Suisse:
Just following up on Hugh's question is kind of that you have pretty remarkable improvement in O&M cost management. Can you just remind us how those adjustments are kind of that better starting point from this year gets reflected in kind of the GRC process given the relatively short open period for adjustment and docket tweaks that sort of stuff?
Jim Scilacci:
So really it's just part of the rate case process, no update for – they are looking at forecast and they look at some actuals because they will be able to go beyond them. The record doesn't close until next year. And so you would expect them to pick-up a lot of the factors that we have this year. And then, whatever they decide from there it's hard to predict at this point in time. Well, where they will set the actual level of O&M until you actually get a proposed decision on a filed decision.
Dan Eggers - Credit Suisse:
And along those lines Jim, did I hear you correctly saying that you guys would split 50:50, if you had more IT and some other savings in 2015 and beyond?
Jim Scilacci:
So we said, we had some specific things that we have identified as part of the rate case process. And we offered those up as part of our showing within the rate case and said we will share 50% of the savings. And I also said that we will continue to look for additional cost savings. And so that's – so those are the facts as they are today.
Dan Eggers - Credit Suisse:
And just one, last one, Ted on the payout ratio should we be thinking about that 45% to 55% based on the rate base math what earnings would be – as do you guys provide it right now or should we assume that if you start realizing better earned ROEs because some of the operating efficiency savings that that is where you calibrate your payout ratio?
Ted Craver:
Yes. There is always, I guess I will say unpredictable pluses and minuses. So what we really tend to do is just make it straightforward. It's based on the rate base that's really the durable growth and the durable earnings power of the company. And that to us seems to be the appropriate way to kind of think about the 45% to 55% payout ratio. Obviously, like in the case of this year, if you have additional earnings from taxes or whatever it maybe, now that just builds your equity and makes it stronger balance sheet from which to finance the type of significant electric infrastructure investments that we see in the future as suppose puts you in better financial strength and our balance sheet strength provides I think more certainty that you can manage the growth in electrics infrastructure investment without having to tap the equity markets, which as you know is something we've really try to keep in balance.
Dan Eggers - Credit Suisse:
Got it. Thank you guys.
Jim Scilacci:
Okay, Dan.
Operator:
The next question comes from Michael Lapides of Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs:
Hey, guys. One thing, just thinking, this is a little bit follow-on the rate case question. In the rate case filing, is the O&M that you requested higher or lower than kind of – if I would have taken annualized run rate for what O&M has been at SCE so far in 2014?
Jim Scilacci:
I don't know if I can answer the question Michael. You have to go back compare. We have been driving the O&M down. And as I said in my prepared comments you are taking SONGS out and we are taking Four Corners out and so you would expect based on that the trajectory is lower. But trying to line it up exactly, I don't think I can do it right here.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs:
Okay. Just trying to think about – are you incurring costs that you had already filed for in the rate case? Or if the rate case has higher 2015 O&M versus 2014, it's for costs you are not already incurring. So if you are not authorized, the revenues that go with those costs – it's not like you've got to go through a major cost-cutting exercise.
Jim Scilacci:
It all depends on what they authorize in the end Michael.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs:
Got it.
Jim Scilacci:
So I understand the crux of your question in terms of where we are spending relative to what's in the GRC. It ultimately then goes to what they authorize.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs:
Okay. On energy efficiency for 2015 and beyond, since you are not recognizing any of it in 2014, does that mean 2015 could be a little bit of a catch-up year, where you recognize both 2014 and 2015 in that one year? Or are you just kind of going to skip a year?
Jim Scilacci:
I think that's how we are thinking about it now you may have pancaking of years.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs:
Got it. Okay. Thanks Jim. Much appreciated.
Jim Scilacci:
Okay, Michael.
Operator:
The next question comes from Kit Konolige of BGC Partners. Your line is open.
Kit Konolige - BGC Partners:
Good afternoon guys. Just I think a lot of this has been asked already. But Jim, maybe -- I'm not sure I caught a lot of detail about the positive tax impacts that we're seeing so far. Is it possible to explain those in a non-technical way that would give us some idea of what's driving that, and how sustainable they might be?
Jim Scilacci:
Yes. I didn't give a lot of details. You didn't miss it. We see additional repair deductions. So when you have work like pull loading or infrastructure replacement, you have repair deductions. You get faster deductions for tax purposes. And we are continuing to see those come through and we have been running behind in terms of what are our original expectation was in that area. We see additional property tax reductions. There are a number of different taxes here. Cost of removal deductions, so there is a number of different pieces here, so it doesn't add up to one item being large but all of them together selectively made a significant change from what we had previously forecasted.
Kit Konolige - BGC Partners:
But they all – moving up in the same direction, that it comes out to a pretty significant dollar amount. Is that related – does that relate to anything that's unusual about your capital spend, or acceleration of CapEx, or anything like that? Or is this just how the tax laws happen to be written?
Jim Scilacci:
There is more the nature of what the capital expenditures are. It has to do with more of our expenditures and as we are – we are ramping up now for infrastructure replacement and pull loading expenditures qualify for repair deductions and cost of removals. And we are seeing details relative to what we had in our forecast in the current year receipts. So that's why you are seeing these earnings pop out for this year.
Kit Konolige - BGC Partners:
Great. Okay. Thanks a lot.
Jim Scilacci:
Okay, Kit.
Operator:
The next question comes from Ali Agha of SunTrust. Your line is open.
Ali Agha - SunTrust:
Thank you. Jim, just to put that bucket in your earnings guidance, the $1.10 of incremental earnings that you are picking up this year – can you just remind us how much of that was picked up in the third quarter and then year-to-date?
Jim Scilacci:
Of the $1.10 and I don't know if I could break it out completely. I can give you some numbers that we have seen previously. We said back in the second quarter there were $0.23 of earnings that were outside of our guidance. You can back into that from that number. And beyond that its more difficult to break it out by quarters, what was in the third, what we anticipate being in the fourth. But, the closest I can give you right now, Ali.
Ali Agha - SunTrust:
Okay. And then second, am I correct? When I looked at the rate base numbers in your latest slide deck, specifically for 2015 and 2016, compared them to the last time you had given us those numbers, there's about a $400 million per year reduction in the ranges for 2015 and 2016. Am I correct in that calculation?
Jim Scilacci:
Yes. There are some changes going on as I said in my prepared comments, we are shifting dollars out of 2015. And so they are going into 2016 and 2017 and there is a net increase in overall capital expenditures because we have a new program for converting mobile home parks from master meters to individually metered mobile homes. So its affecting both capital then ultimate rate base.
Ali Agha - SunTrust:
Okay. But, again, if I add in 2017 to the mix, it seems that you only pick up about $100 million to $200 million there, and you are reducing about $400 million in each of the years 2015 and 2016. So over the three-year period, it looks like a net reduction, if I'm looking at it right.
Jim Scilacci:
Yes. It's hard to – it really has go into how that actual closings are being forecasted, so as we have capital expenditures and then ultimately closings and how it relates to rate base. So I don't have any further detail I can give you on that that could change periodically.
Ali Agha - SunTrust:
I see. Last question, sorry for that. On Slide 12, where you talk about some of your growth CapEx initiatives beyond 2017, just to put that in some context, does that sustain your rate base growth at the same level, based on all the items you've listed on that Slide 12?
Jim Scilacci:
Yes. We haven't put out a forecast or rate base real figures. What we have been trying to indicate that $4 billion year capital expenditure is kind of like the sweet spot. Ted has mentioned that previously. And so we see infrastructure replacement going up in spending transmission has come down a little bit. And we have some of these other initiatives that are on the periphery, the horizon that we were thinking about now that could affect our overall capital expenditures beyond the 2017 timeframe. So I'm not trying to go to higher net of level capital expenditures. And I'm not providing you actual CAGRs and you would expect as the base gets bigger your CAGR will probably come down slightly just from the math on.
Ali Agha - SunTrust:
Right. Thank you.
Jim Scilacci:
Okay.
Operator:
The next question comes from Shahriar Pourreza of Citigroup. Your line is open.
Shahriar Pourreza - Citigroup:
Hi, everyone.
Ted Craver:
Hi, Shah.
Shahriar Pourreza - Citigroup:
I think we – just on two filings, I think we discussed in the past that there's potentially two filings next year
Jim Scilacci:
I think it's a good question. I think the timeframe maybe out slightly as you get into when those might take effect. And obviously, you have to file an application, the application is going to take time to process. And I couldn't anticipate that it would be well in the 2016, potentially 2017 before you actually see spending from either of those two initiatives. And so it's hard at this point in time to forecast that it might push it higher than where we are forecasting today.
Shahriar Pourreza - Citigroup:
Got you. Got you. And then just a follow-up. On the MHI proceedings, are you bound by ordinance to remain – to not disclose the process? Or is this sort of like you just want to update investors, once you have some data point to update investors with? What's the procedural process there?
Jim Scilacci:
We are going to have Rob Adler, our General Counsel comment on that. Bob?
Rob Adler:
These proceedings are typically confidential in nature. It would take the parties to agree to make them otherwise as well as the tribunal. And so at this point in time, we are simply not going to be commenting beyond the material events that would – that would require disclosure.
Shahriar Pourreza - Citigroup:
Terrific. Thanks. Congrats on a good quarter.
Jim Scilacci:
Okay, Shah. Thanks,
Operator:
The next question comes from Angie Storozynski of Macquarie. Your line is open.
Angie Storozynski - Macquarie:
Thank you. I just have a quick question on GRC. Now that the hearings are over, and the commissioner assigned to the rate case is not going to be around past the end of – I mean of the CPUC – at the end of this year, is it possible that we would have a settlement instead of a fully litigated case?
Jim Scilacci:
Angie, its Jim. I don't think we can speculate on that. Of course, if it were appropriate, we would enter in discussions, but we can't comment beyond what we know now.
Angie Storozynski - Macquarie:
Okay. Thanks.
Jim Scilacci:
Okay. Talk to you then.
Operator:
The next question comes from Travis Miller of Morningstar. Your line is open.
Travis Miller - Morningstar:
Good afternoon. Thank you.
Jim Scilacci:
Hi, Travis.
Travis Miller - Morningstar:
The income tax benefit that you've been realizing – how much, if any, ultimately would go back to ratepayers, either through the GRC or some other type of mechanism?
Jim Scilacci:
Travis, this is Jim. We have been forecasting and signaling clear that we would expect the tax benefits we realized during this year see to go back to customers. And that's a part of the rate case process. And so we are not indicating that would expect earnings from tax benefits going forward.
Travis Miller - Morningstar:
And that would ultimately show up in a lower revenue requirement?
Jim Scilacci:
Sure. They will just for the benefits, yes, they will take it away, lower the revenue requirement, already incorporated in our GRC request.
Travis Miller - Morningstar:
Got it. And then another subject, maybe Ted, what's your latest thinking on the FERC Order 1000 projects? Is that in a planning stage for you guys, or is that too far off to think about?
Ted Craver:
Well, certainly not in a place where we think we would have something to disclose about it. But, we have indicated previously that competitive transmission, if you will, FERC order 1000 base transmission projects is something that we are seriously considering and looking at. We have a subsidiary that we've formed Edison Transmission, which is really to explore those possibilities and should something come together then we, of course, would have more to say about it. But, at this point, I think like most companies out there, we are looking at it, trying to assess where the opportunities are. We have ourselves kind of organized to go after these things in a logical way, if we see good projects that make good sense. Then presumably we would go forward and those.
Travis Miller - Morningstar:
Okay, great. Thanks a lot.
Jim Scilacci:
Okay, Travis.
Operator:
The next question comes from Neel Mitra - Tudor, Pickering. Your line is open.
Neel Mitra - Tudor, Pickering:
Hi. Good afternoon. Just wanted to get your thoughts on the probability of the renewable portfolio standard going over 33%, and what the timing of that would be, and what possible investment generally that would require from you going forward.
Ted Craver:
This is Ted. It's going to be difficult to really speculate much on this. We were currently of course focused on trying to get to the 33%. And we have procurement efforts and the like to get us there. Whether this becomes something that either the Governor's Office or legislator just want to look at that's really hard to predict, I'm not aware of any specific bills that are being put together or floated at this point. So it's really just hard to speculate on it.
Neel Mitra - Tudor, Pickering:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
(Operator Instructions) And it appears that was the last question. I will now turn the call back to Mr. Cunningham.
Scott Cunningham:
Thanks very much everyone for participating. And please call our Investor Relations if you have any follow-up questions. Thanks and good evening.
Operator:
That concludes today's conference. Thanks for participating. You may disconnect at this time.
Executives:
Ted Craver - Chairman and CEO Jim Scilacci - EVP and CFO Ron Litzinger - President, Southern California Edison Scott Cunningham - VP, IR
Analysts:
Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse Holdings USA LLC Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Gregg Orrill - Barclays Capital Inc. Kit Konolige - BGC Partners, Inc. Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey Ashar Khan - Visium Asset Management Neel Mitra - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc. Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc.
Operator:
Good afternoon, and welcome to the Edison International Second Quarter 2014 Financial Teleconference. My name is Brian and I'll be the operator today. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded. I’d now like to turn the call over to Mr. Scott Cunningham, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.
Scott Cunningham:
Thanks, Brian, and good afternoon everyone. Our principal speakers today will be Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Ted Craver and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Jim Scilacci. Also with us are other members of the management team. The presentation that accompanies Jim's comments, the earnings press release and our Form 10-Q are available on our Web site at www.edisoninvestor.com. After the call, we will be posting Ted’s and Jim’s prepared remarks. Tomorrow we will file and distribute and regular business update presentation, which has additional information on current topics. During this call, we will make forward-looking statements about the financial outlook for Edison International and its subsidiaries and about other future events. Actual results could differ materially from current expectations. Important factors that could cause different results are set forth in our SEC filings. We encourage you to read these carefully. The presentation includes certain outlook assumptions, as well as reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure. When we get to Q&A, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. If you have further questions, please return to the queue. With that, I'll turn the call over to Ted Craver.
Ted Craver:
Thank you, Scott, and good afternoon everyone. Before we begin the call, I would like to welcome Maria Rigatti, who joined us this week as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Southern California Edison. Many of you know Maria from her prior role as Chief Financial Officer of Edison Mission Energy. We are pleased to have Maria’s depth of experience and leadership. I’d also like to welcome Connie Erickson to her first earnings call. Connie is Southern California Edison’s new Controller, and joined us in May from a utility in the Southeast. Okay. Let’s go ahead and get down to the business at hand. Edison International today reported second quarter core earnings per share of a $1.08. This is a 37% increase over core earnings per share in last year’s second quarter. This strong performance reflects continued earnings growth from investing in modernizing and expanding our core wires infrastructure, managing our costs, and benefiting from favorable tax items. Based on our year-to-date results, we expect full-year earnings for EIX to be well above the high-end of our core earnings guidance range, that is, above $3.80 core earnings per share. There are several components driving this expectation, which Jim will discuss in his remarks. Obviously, this effectively moots our current earnings guidance. We are not providing new earnings guidance at this time. We want to at least get through the summer, since our earnings are weighted most heavily to the third quarter, and may provide new guidance when we release third quarter earnings. Of course we are also focused on completing the remaining steps for getting the SONGS OII settlement approved. The record of the proceeding is now complete. We are currently awaiting a proposed decision from the administrative law judge. As we previously reported, the Settlement has a diverse group of signatories representing all the major groups of intervenors in the SONGS OII proceeding. That is utilities, consumer groups, labor and environmentalists. Beyond the direct signatories, several other groups expressed support for the settlement in testimony with relatively little opposition. The next step is to receive a proposed decision from the ALJ, which we hope to see shortly. We are also moving ahead on the decommissioning planning process. SCE anticipates filing an initial decommissioning plan with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission later this year outlining the scope, schedule and budget for decommissioning. Based on a recently completed site-specific study, we now forecast SCE’s share of SONGS decommissioning costs to be $3.3 billion in 2014 dollars. When we take that number and escalate costs over the decommissioning period and then present value it, SCE’s share of costs is $2.9 billion. On the other side of the equation, the current market value of SCE’s decommissioning trust funds for SONGS Units 2 and 3 total $3.1 billion after estimated taxes as of June 30, 2014. The bottom line is that we have $2.9 billion in present value costs versus $3.1 billion in present value of the trust funds, which leads us to conclude that San Onofre decommissioning is now fully funded and future contributions are not needed. We are awaiting approval from the PUC to use decommissioning trust monies to pay for the early decommissioning planning work we have been doing as well as ongoing operating costs since the plant was shut down in June of last year. On a related item, on May 1 the CPUC approved SCE’s 2014 forecast for fuel and purchased power, or what we call the ERRA account. SCE incorporated this decision in customer rates in June. SCE also filed its 2015 ERRA forecast application in June. These are important steps in reducing the under-collection in the ERRA account. Turning to the general rate case, we made our supplemental filing on safety and reliability risks as required by the Assigned Commissioner Ruling. The Administrative Law Judge issued a revised GRC schedule for testimony, hearings, and briefs. Hearings begin in late September representing approximately a two month delay. The schedule does not have a target date for a proposed decision, but it clearly will not be issued until sometime into 2015. The Commission has already approved making the final GRC decision whenever that may occur, retroactive in rates to January 1st of next year. While we have to accept the realities of this delay, we continue to support the separate efforts Commissioner Picker is leading to streamline decision processes at the Commission, which is needed. The last regulatory topic I want to touch on is rate design. We and the other investor owned utilities continue to work with the CPUC on their efforts to implement the constructive changes in residential rate design authorized under Assembly Bill 327 signed into law last October. We are well into the procedural schedule for the phase dealing with fixed charges and compressing rate tiers to bring the rate structure closer to true costs. A decision on this is scheduled in the spring of next year. On July 10, the CPUC established a separate docket and approved the procedural schedule for the last phase. This includes creating a new net energy metering tariff to better reflect the cost effects of net metered, customer-installed, solar on the system. This is to be finalized by the fall of next year. I’ll close with a few comments on our longer-term growth potential and dividend policy. As I’ve met with investors over the past few months, I’ve made clear that we see sustained growth opportunities at SCE even beyond the current 2015 - 2017 forecast period. On our last earnings call, I talked about the need for annual capital expenditures in electric infrastructure at similar levels to those proposed in the current rate case. We continue to believe that for the foreseeable future the electric grid is critical to facilitating public policy goals, including those to reduce greenhouse gases. That said, the distribution grid needs additional capital expenditure to support two-way flows of electricity created by distributed generation as well as new technologies such as electric vehicles and energy storage. This is by far the largest additional future investment in the grid not currently contemplated by the general rate case process. We will submit our Distribution Resource Plan outlining these investments in 2015 as required by Assembly Bill 327. We have three large transmission projects that are part of the approved California ISO Transmission Plant, that are expected to go into service between 2018 and 2020. We are also interested in the Delaney-Colorado River transmission project, which was recently approved by the California ISO as an economic, and therefore a competitive project. We feel our competitive position is enhanced from SCE owning an existing corridor. Together with electric vehicle infrastructure and energy storage, all these potential projects will complement SCE’s continued focus on growth in electric infrastructure investment. We are not prepared at this time to attach specific numbers to these categories, but w e believe it is important for investors to understand why we are bullish about our long-term growth opportunities for some time to come. And importantly, none of this growth relies on additional investment in new generation. Regarding our dividend policy, we fully recognize that our dividend is well below the industry. I have reiterated several times in these calls that we intend to address this situation by taking more meaningful steps in returning our dividend to our target payout ratio of 45% to 55% of SCE’s earnings, in steps over time. I consider delivering on this as job #1 for our investors; just as delivering on providing safe, reliable and affordable electric service is job number 1 for our customers. With that, I’ll now turn the call over to Jim Scilacci.
Jim Scilacci.:
Thanks, Ted and good afternoon, everyone. I’d like to add my congratulations to Maria and Connie on their new roles too. I’d also like to thank Stu Hemphill for being the acting CFO, bridging the time period between Linda Sullivan’s departure and Maria’s arrival. Thanks a lot, Stu. My comments over the -- will cover the following topics
Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse Holdings USA LLC:
Good morning, guys.
Ted Craver:
Hi, Dan.
Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse Holdings USA LLC:
Jim, on slide 9, can you just re-run through those numbers of all the additional benefits that weren’t in the original guidance, just to make sure, they went pretty fast -- to make sure I have the right accounting for them?
Jim Scilacci:
Okay. Four items. $0.09 for uncertain tax positions release of reserves; $0.08 of additional repair and cost of removal deductions; $0.03 for generator refunds and $0.03 for FERC revenue -- additional FERC revenue.
Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse Holdings USA LLC:
Okay. And then …
Jim Scilacci:
Which you get to 23.
Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse Holdings USA LLC:
And then the extra -- are those the core pieces that are going to get you well above the high-end of your range or are there other things you’re seeing in addition to those that would be additive to those expectations?
Jim Scilacci:
Its -- those are the core things.
Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse Holdings USA LLC:
Okay. And then when we think about with the GRC coming through, the upside or the benefit from the taxes and the cost savings that are adding this year, we should calibrate those back because those are unique to this period and not to the next GRC period, is that still correct?
Jim Scilacci:
Yes.
Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse Holdings USA LLC:
Okay. What tax rate should we be assuming beyond this year?
Jim Scilacci:
Well that’s a good question. Tell me what’s going to happen when with tax policy. That’s the real hard one to pin down. So we still are carrying some NOLs. So even if they didn’t extend bonus depreciation, there could be an impact in future years. But we haven’t put a forecast out. We don’t forecast tax policy or tax rates. So its going to be somewhere between the maximum rate and slightly lower if they don’t extend bonus and I can tell you where it will go to if they do extend bonus.
Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse Holdings USA LLC:
Okay. And I guess one last question. Sorry, I didn’t mean to rapid fire all those, but just one last question.
Jim Scilacci:
Yes, go ahead.
Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse Holdings USA LLC:
Pinnacle raised today the idea of or talked about on their call today, utility-owned rooftop solar as a way of trying to allocate or get that resource into the hands of people who probably couldn’t otherwise afford it or couldn’t qualify for it. Is that an opportunity you would see working in California to try and bridge the gap as to where some of the disproportionate subsidies or benefits are going within the California rate design system?
Jim Scilacci:
There are a number of things we’re considering. I think Ted’s comments touched on some of the things that we’re important -- we’re thinking about from an investment perspective. And our principal focus is looking at the grid and how we can better make investments around the grid to allow greater penetrations of distributed generation. And we think there are meaningful investments that could be made to support more distributed generations. I will pause there and look at Ted or Ron, did you want to add on to that?
Ted Craver:
Yes, maybe just a little bit on it Dan. I think really our focus has been primarily on the wire side as opposed to the generation side. And we’ve in SCE something like 90 megawatts of roof top solar already, something like 35 different commercial roofs. But we’ve not really been adding to that portfolio. Frankly, it’s a good competitive environment. There are plenty of opportunities for lots of third parties to engage in this. Most of the times they can do it more efficiently than we can in the utility and where we’ve I think a unique contribution to make is in facilitating all of these technology, whether its roof top solar, whether its potential electrification of transportation, in energy storage, etcetera. Really all of that fundamentally relies on distribution system in particular to really work effectively and efficiently. We are uniquely positioned to provide that investment, that’s where we’re focused. So I don’t think you will see us rush to get into the generation side of this in --- within the utility so much as you really see the utility focus its investment on the wire side.
Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse Holdings USA LLC:
Very good. Thank you.
Ted Craver:
Yes, just one last thing to, of course we’ve a small investment in the company by the name of SoCore that focuses on commercial industrial customers. We’ve avoided the residential side, because with the commercial industrial area we think its more economic and there is a lot of potential there. Operator?
Operator:
Next question from Julien Dumoulin-Smith, UBS. Your line is open.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS:
Yes. Sorry to nitpick a little bit further, could you elaborate a little bit with regards to whether the FERC side of the equation there could persist, when you call it out in that $0.23 or specifically the FERC revenue of $0.03?
Jim Scilacci:
When you say persist …
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS:
Is it strictly a one-time item here or should we think about this as continuing on for a certain period of time?
Jim Scilacci:
Yes, it’s more one-time Julien. What we’re doing is updating our formula rate for actuals and for the 2008 proceeding around our construction work in process, proceeding that case was ongoing for a long time, and it was resolved. So it’s mostly one-time.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS:
Got you. And then when it comes to the energy settlements, I mean, obviously these things come in -- are somewhat lumpy. Are there others that are pending to be settled at one go here, is there anything else on that front we should be expecting?
Jim Scilacci:
There is not much left on the energy settlement. So we’ve been litigating those for over 10 years. So we are getting to the end of those.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS:
Got you. So ultimately, if you could summarize and I don’t want to put words in your mouth, so I will let you talk, how would you think about the guidance in the context of year-to-date earnings, just to be clear? If you can provide any comment, I mean, is it as simple as saying, well, $0.23 on top of your guidance year-to-date? I mean, is that begin to approximate, how would you think about it?
Jim Scilacci:
Well, I think, I will go back to the statement we used, and I don’t want to go beyond that or try to expand. So we’d see earnings being well above the high-end of the range. And the $0.23 we try to list for you that occurred in the first half alone. And we’ve projected other tax benefits and O&M savings to occur during the course of the year, the balance of the year. So that’s by putting all these factors together, we see it well above.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS:
Excellent. Moving on to more substantive issues, when it comes to the ROE, I would be curious, how are you thinking about positioning yourself within the context of your future ROE case at FERC, given the New England case and the resolution we recently got or at least the clarity we’ve gotten?
Jim Scilacci:
Well, we got some clarity. Again, we have a settlement in place until mid 2015. Under the settlement we entered into over a year-ago and at that point of time later next year, we will take a look at it, run all the models and see what they yield and take into consideration what the FERC has provided us in terms of its recent guidance. And we will have to see if that implies an upward bias. It’s going to come down to interest rates and where dividend growth rates are in terms of using the FERC model and cranking it through. So there potentially could be some upside there, but you have to moderate it, because its really only 20% of our total rate base, it’s the CPUC side that really drives things overall.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS:
Right, absolutely. Thank you.
Jim Scilacci:
All right.
Operator:
Next question Gregg Orrill, Barclays. Your line is open.
Gregg Orrill - Barclays Capital Inc.:
Thanks. Two quick ones. First, a point of clarification on whether this year you have pulled forward any benefits of repair tax accounting or maybe if you can provide an update on what you are looking for in 2015 there? And then, at this point on the SONGS OII, are you still working to bring any more parties on board or do you see any gaps in groups on the settlement?
Jim Scilacci:
So, why don’t we handle that reverse order, Ted?
Ted Craver:
Yes, just one the second one, all the intervenors who are going to provide testimony have done so and that was really what I was kind of capturing there. In terms of the direct signatories, it’s the two utilities, the labor group queue, ORA, TURN, and Friends of the Earth. So those were the direct signatories representing in all four of the main intervenor groups. In the testimony, several other groups, mostly consumer various forms of consumer related groups also provided a positive supportive testimony of the settlement. And as I indicated in my comments, really relatively few came forward with any opposition to the settlement. So I think basically everyone who has standing that wants to speak, has spoken and at this point really all that part is over with. We are really at the stage of waiting for the ALJ Proposed Decision.
Jim Scilacci:
Okay, great. Let me cover the first part of it. I think it is the tax benefits you were referring to and what potential tax benefits there could be going forward into ’15. And as we’ve said all along, we will update with our GRC filing. All the numbers and we’d expect the benefits that we’re receiving currently, the $0.14 referred to before would go away and that’s incorporated in our rates starting in ’15. But we’re trying to point out here in ’14 the $0.09 of share, that’s a release of reserves related to our 2003 to 2006 audit cycle. We took the -- essentially the hit in the past and now, because of the way the negotiations are coming out; we can release those reserves and have benefits earnings. And I also said, the second item, when we said there would be 14 in total for the year, when we started the year. What I’ve said in my comments, there was an additional $0.08 over and above the 14 of additional repair and costs of removal deductions. So I think that’s the full line of tax benefits that we see as of the $0.14 for the full-year and through the first six months in the year.
Gregg Orrill - Barclays Capital Inc.:
Thanks.
Ted Craver:
Okay.
Operator:
Next question Kit Konolige, BGC. Your line is open.
Kit Konolige - BGC Partners, Inc.:
Good afternoon, guys.
Ted Craver:
Hi, Kit.
Kit Konolige - BGC Partners, Inc.:
Ted, maybe just to focus a little bit on grid readiness, which I think you have described as the biggest single item. I know you don’t want to put a number on that, but maybe you can give us a little more color on what you see as likely to be involved here. You’ve certainly talked about the two way flows that would be demanded by distributed generation, in particular, in the past. But now that you’re going to have to be presenting a specific plan, maybe you can give us some detail about what would be involved here from the utilities viewpoint?
Ted Craver:
Yes, I will make maybe a couple of overarching points in that, and then I will give it to Ron, who is really much more directly involved in this part. We are -- I will do it in terms of buckets. I think there are a number of things on as you termed it, grid readiness side. I think of it as modernizing and expanding the grid system focusing primarily on the distribution system to make it more flexible and resilient and responsive. So some of that gets into the stuff that you mentioned, the two way flows of electricity today is pretty much designed to handle one way flows. And the more of the new technologies get introduced, whether that’s distributed generation or storage or some of the things around electric transportation, the more that distribution system needs to be flexible and responsive. One of the phrases we’ve used, its essentially creating a network system, a plug and play system, if you will, that can handle a lot of those new technologies and still remain reliable. The second really big bucket I think is on the transmission side and there are a number of things that we’re looking at, both within the utility as well as potentially outside the utility in competitive transition -- transmission work. We see a lot of opportunities, particularly in the West on those activities. So those are probably two of the larger ones. Beyond that, its some of the unregulated business and that’s where as we’ve referred to, its energy services focused on the commercial and industrial customers which we see as the most price sensitive as well as having a large enough footprint -- energy footprint that a lot of these things will be economic even without subsidies. Whereas on the residential side, I think continued subsidies will be required to really make those alternatives competitive with the grid. So those are the big buckets. Ron can cover more on the grid readiness part.
Ron Litzinger:
The particulars on grid readiness really comes down to the control systems and the protection systems on the distribution grid. We are going to have to put in much more sophisticated, more dynamic voltage controls for years. We got away with capacitors that just switch twice per day, once on peak and off peak. We are going to have to put in more sophisticated voltage controls to deal with a lot more voltage fluctuation. As we get into two way flows, we’re going to have to go with much more sophisticated relaying and protection systems that can detect both the distance and the direction of the fault, similar to what we’ve on the transmission grid and then once all that’s in place, as Ted mentioned, we can loop many more distribution circuits together and operate it more like a network which would actually improve reliability. And so, it’s primarily a controls game. What I’ve just described for you is essentially our plans around our urban circuits which are already suited for this, from the physical infrastructure itself. When you get out to our rural circuits though, however, we probably are going to have to upgrade some conductor sizes as well.
Kit Konolige - BGC Partners, Inc.:
Okay. And just so I understood it correctly, did I hear you say before that this bucket, this grid readiness area, is the biggest single prospect for growth beyond ’17 or am I misunderstanding that?
Ron Litzinger:
No, that’s correct.
Kit Konolige - BGC Partners, Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Next question Michael Lapides, Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Hey guys, just kind of thinking about the bridge for the next couple of years, am I right to think a little bit that if you just kind of do rate base math on 2015, because you’re having such a great 2014 in a little bit of an unusual 2014, that 2015 is kind of a down year before growth reaccelerates in ’16?
Jim Scilacci:
Yes, Michael, this is Jim. I think you’re right. We are guiding people to go back to the simplified model starting in ’15 because the way the regulatory mechanisms work here, we pass back to the ratepayer, the O&M savings that we talked about $0.35 that are embedded in our guidance and the tax benefits. Those all go back and they were back to the normal, I mean, if you take the rate base and times the return on common equity, times the 48% common equity ratio and you’re to get earnings pretty fast. There could be some volatility around that to a certain degree, because we will continue to focus on operational and service excellence, and there is the potential for additional savings. But we're not going to forecast anything here, but we will continue to look for things to optimize around our costs.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. And I want to just kind of focus on the balance sheet a little bit. You talked a little bit about having ramped up short-term debt at the parent. Can you give us some of the puts and takes? Meaning when do you -- when and how much cash flow do you expect to get this year and next year related to the ERRA? What are your plans in terms of short-term debt at the parent? Just kind of high-level movers outside of CapEx and some of the tax issues you’ve already talked about and, obviously, net income and D&A.
Jim Scilacci:
That’s a broad question. So let me just pick at it, then we will let others chime in. At the utility in terms of ERRA, we said they were at $1.6 billion and we had the big rate increase that went in just …
Ted Craver:
June 1st.
Jim Scilacci:
… June 1st. And we’ve generator refunds. There is $200 million that will be applied against the $1.6 billion and as rates have now gone up, we will start to amortize that down. An important element in terms of where we get at the end of the year is the SONGS settlement. There is a large refund that will come out of there and there is an advice filing pending before the Nuclear Decommissioning, and if they allow us to go into the decommissioning trust, that balance then will be refunded into your account. So where it ends up, I would say right now if they do improve the SONGS settlement and the advice filing, we will be materially reduced from where we’re today. There still could be a balance and that will pick up in ’14 will be materially reduced. And that balance, if any will be picked up in the ’15 year proceeding and amortized down if there is anything remaining. So any other short-term borrowings? There is actually fairly small amounts of borrowings at the utility right now. We will see that as a surge, if we have capital requirements or other things. But historically we’ve kept the balances well and it will just depend on capital expenditures going forward. Moving upstairs to the holding company, we said we’re up to $660 million of short-term borrowings and we did that because we made the first payment and we did the tax deposit. Now we’ve additional payments in ’15 and ’16 for the EME settlement. And really it’s going to come down to what’s going to happen with tax policy, which is going to affect the utility too, obviously, because that will be a source of cash and there will be less monetization of tax benefits at the holding company if we do see that. And it would just defer monetization for a period of time. Once you would expect, we will get the on bonus depreciation and the whole EME settlement is designed that it pays off the cost we’ve incurred and payments to the bond holders and for the tax payments we took on our side and some of the employee benefits. It ultimately is a net positive at Edison International. How this unfolds, its hard to tell at this point in time. We will just have to see what tax policy is especially at the end of the year.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. Thank you, Jim. Just one final question. When you think about -- yes, Ted, you talked a little bit about the dividend policy and that you may have CapEx levels over time, meaning after this GRC that remain in the elevated range that you had now and that you expect for the next year or so. But what also should happen is net income should have -- should grow obviously, and D&A should grow as assets go into service. So you wind up with a larger base of cash flow to start from and CapEx, while remaining elevated, is smaller each year as a percent of the total Company. Does that not give you a little more confidence in the ability to kind of move towards a higher payout ratio?
Ted Craver:
Yes, definitely. And I mean that’s -- I’m kind of running out of new ways to say it. But I introduced one, new one this time that job number one is delivering on getting our payout ratio back into the targeted 45% to 55% of SCE’s earnings. And that’s probably about as close as I can get to saying everything you just outlined is exactly right, that we see increased capacity to move the dividend along at a higher growth rate than certainly what we’ve been doing in the past. And we’ve to do that. It has to grow faster than earnings in order to get back into that 45% to 55% payout ratio. People have been -- investors have been patient. We’re aware of that. We’re appreciative of that and we think we’re getting to that spot now where its time to deliver on getting our payout ratio back to where it belongs.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. Thanks, Ted. Much appreciated.
Ted Craver:
You’re welcome.
Operator:
Next question Paul Patterson, Glenrock Associates. Your line is open.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Good afternoon.
Jim Scilacci:
Hi, Paul.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
A lot of my questions have been answered. Just sort of on the competitive transmission opportunity that you were talking about, and the benefit of having the transmission corridor, could you give us a flavor or sort of how substantial that advantage is, I mean, in terms of cost or timing of whatever the sort, I mean, whatever you can tell?
Jim Scilacci:
So what you’re referring to just for the clarification, is that Delaney-Colorado River transmission line. Remember going back and you’ve followed us long enough, there is already a transmission line that goes through that corridor. That’s Devers-Palo Verde transmission line number one. And we tried to do Devers-Palo Verde transmission line number two and Ron Litzinger can tell you all about how fun that was and if we built up to the Colorado River, and we stopped there. Now it’s the adjoining piece that goes out through Arizona. So I will pause there and let Ron give some more of the details.
Ron Litzinger:
Yes. So, we continue to have the entirety of the right of way and we see that as a competitive advantage and now that’s it a competitive gain, we’ve got to seek to maximize that and whatever others we can find.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Do you -- I mean, I just was wondering if there was -- if you had -- in terms of the competitive outlook, how -- is there a value that you can ascribe to that, in terms of how much money that saves you, vis-à-vis other competitive alternatives?
Ron Litzinger:
Just what we know historically getting this route and what the alternatives are, but we’re putting a dollar figure on that.
Jim Scilacci:
Yes, Paul just logically just trying to figure it out, on top of our heads, if you have a right of way that it already exists, how difficult it is to secure a right of way and going through all the combination process and getting all the approvals that you need. It is not easy to do that. We’ve got a large transmission construction going on and its one of the most challenging things for us to do. So that’s why I think its important.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. I just was wondering if there was a -- I mean if there was -- if you could quantify it, but I understand if you don’t want to do that. And then just in terms of financing and what have you, I mean, one wonders whether or not infrastructure funds or something might be involved in some of the activity. Do you guys think that there would be with these competitive -- these transmission lines for competitive bid, whether there would be a change in sort of the capital structure or leverage that might be employed to develop these things or do you see it pretty much the same as other transmission investments that you've made?
Jim Scilacci:
No, I don’t -- I can’t foresee it at this point in time. It would be similar to what the -- if you see capital structure would be.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. Thanks so much.
Operator:
Next question Ali Agha, SunTrust. Your line is open.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey:
Ted, as you alluded to, given the schedule that the GRC is moving under, it’s likely to spill into next year. Now normally, you make your dividend decisions in December. Is it fair to assume that you would want the GRC behind you before getting aggressive on the dividend, I guess, point A. And related to that, is there anything to move you from that December timeline, is that just consistency, or how are you thinking about these issues?
Ted Craver:
I think you’ve outlined certainly the -- some of the considerations that will go into figuring out where we go from here. But I'm really not prepared at this point to speculate a lot on timing or amount. I've done everything I can to make clear that this is a top priority for us and we just have to assess the situation as it presents itself and make the best decision that we can and then explain our decision to investors.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey:
Okay. We will keep an eye on that. Jim, can you let us know from the way the regulatory accounting math works, what is the equity ratio at SCE right now? And I know you guys have been very clear that through the ’17 period, you don’t need equity, but listening to your CapEx plans beyond that, when at the earliest do you think equity does come into the equation, if at all, for the Company?
Jim Scilacci:
Question one, 48.5 at June 30th.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey:
Okay.
Jim Scilacci:
Question two; we have no plans for equity.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey:
Not just still ’17, it could be well beyond that as well?
Jim Scilacci:
Just no plans.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Next question Ashar Khan, Visium. Your line is open.
Ashar Khan - Visium Asset Management:
My question has been answered. Thank you so much.
Jim Scilacci:
Okay.
Operator:
Neel Mitra, Tudor, Pickering. Your line is open.
Neel Mitra - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Good afternoon. I had a question on slide 7, with the infrastructure liability investment past 2017. How -- what’s the pace of the drop off? Obviously, that’s the big rate base growth for you guys through 2017. Can you kind of give us maybe the trajectory for it past 2017 and what the drivers are really for rate base growth?
Jim Scilacci:
Well, I will start. Again, we don’t have any projections out there and I think Ted made some comments, that we’re very clear around this. Our distribution spending, we don’t see a drop off. There are certain components that we need to step up the level of replacements to get to the level that we think is appropriate. So we don’t have reliability concerns. What could cause our capital spending to go up or down were some of these other things that you see on Page 7 that would be transmission expenditures, the grid readiness. Right now that’s not in anything we’ve shown the commission. Ted indicted that we will make a filing next year that will detail some of those expenditures. So drop off I don’t think would be the appropriate word. I think in our investor materials, we’ve said it’s plateaued and it will go up or down depending upon what happens with some of these other things.
Neel Mitra - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Okay. So capital spending for kind of the wires business will substantially outpace depreciation for past 2017 in your view? Just the (indiscernible).
Jim Scilacci:
That will well pass ’17.
Neel Mitra - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Okay, great. Thank you.
Operator:
Next question from Travis Miller, Morningstar. Your line is open.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc.:
Good afternoon.
Jim Scilacci:
Hi, Travis.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc.:
Quick question on the decommissioning fund, do you intend to turn that over to a third-party ultimately or manage that yourself in terms of the decommission activities?
Jim Scilacci:
Right now we have managed that as the principal owner. That’s obviously an option. We have seen others in the industry have done that and -- but I won’t speculate if we would go down that path.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc.:
Okay. And then other topic, those $0.23 of earnings, how much of that was cash that you are realizing, above and beyond the guidance?
Jim Scilacci:
That’s a good question. So the generator refunds were certainly cash. FERC revenues were certainly -- will be cash. Tax benefits, the $0.08 is definitely cash …
Ted Craver:
Eventually.
Jim Scilacci:
… eventually as it comes around and I don’t know on the $0.09, because you’re releasing reserves. And so that’s an earnings benefit and not a cash benefit.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc.:
Okay, great. Thanks a lot. Appreciate it.
Jim Scilacci:
You’re welcome.
Operator:
(Operator Instructions) At this time, I’m showing no questions.
Scott Cunningham:
Thanks very much everyone for participating on our call today, and don’t hesitate to follow-up, if you have any other questions. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. That does conclude the call for today. You may disconnect your phone lines at this time.
Executives:
Scott Cunningham – VP, IR Ted Craver – Chairman and CEO Jim Scilacci – EVP and CFO Ron Litzinger – President, Southern California Edison Mark Clarke – VP, Controller
Analysts:
Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS Investment Bank Daniel Eggers – Credit Suisse Hugh Wynne – Sanford Bernstein Gregg Orrill – Barclays Capital Michael Lapides – Goldman Sachs Angie Storozynski – Macquarie Research Jonathan Arnold – Deutsche Bank John Apgar – Merrill Lynch Ashar Khan Kit Konolige – BGC Partners, Inc Ali Agha – SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc Neel Mitra – Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co Travis Miller – Morningstar
Operator:
Good afternoon, and welcome to the Edison International First Quarter 2014 Financial Teleconference. My name is Brian and I'll be your operator today. (Operator Instructions). Today's call is being recorded and I would now like to turn call over to Mr. Scott Cunningham, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you, sir.
Scott Cunningham:
Thanks, Brian, and good afternoon everyone. Our principal speakers today will be Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Ted Craver and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Jim Scilacci. Also with us are other members of the management team. The presentation that accompanies Jim's comments, the earnings press release and our Form 10-Q are available on our website at www.edisoninvestor.com. During this call, we will make forward-looking statements about the financial outlook for Edison International and its subsidiaries and about other future events. Actual results could differ materially from current expectations. Important factors that could cause different results are set forth in our SEC filings. We encourage you to read these carefully. The presentation includes certain outlook assumptions, as well as reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure. When we get to Q&A, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. If you have further questions, please return to the queue. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Ted Craver.
Ted Craver:
Thank you, Scott, and good afternoon everyone. Today Edison International reported solid first quarter results. Core earnings were $0.90 per share, up 17% over last year. These results are consistent with our full year earnings guidance, which we also reaffirmed today. Jim Scilacci will cover this in more detail in his remarks. In the last few months, we made good strides in resolving the two major uncertainties for investors Edison Mission Energy and San Onofre. I'll touch on both starting with the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station. On March 27, a settlement agreement was reached on all of the issues in the cost recovery proceeding before the California Public Utilities Commission related to the shutdown of SONGS. This comprehensive settlement was formerly submitted to the CPUC on April 3. The original signatories included the two principal's owners of SONGS; Southern California Edison and San Diego Gas and Electric and the two largest and most active consumer advocacy organizations in the State on utility matters. These are the California Public Utilities Commissions, Office of Ratepayer Advocates and the utility reform network. Since that announcement, two additional groups have joined the settlement. The first is; Friends of the Earth, a prominent environmental group and the most active advocate for closing SONGS in the Nuclear Regulatory Commission Proceedings. The second; is the Coalition of California Utility Employees. The only organized labor group intervenient in the SONGS OII. As a result, the settlement is supported by representatives from four key constituencies. The consumers, environmentalist, labor and the owners. All of the parties have agreed to work to obtain timely consideration and approval of the settlement by the CPUC. On April 14, the settling parties held a series of briefings on the settlement for CPUC representatives. On April 24, the Administrative Law Judge for the SONGS OII published a schedule to review the settlement. The ruling plans one evidentiary hearing in mid-may and a public participation hearing in early June. The CPUC will receive written comments from the other parties to the proceeding on May 5, with reply briefs due on May 27. While the ruling does not have a proposed decision date. This timeline could accommodate a proposed and final decision this summer; although we can't predict the timing of any decision. The ruling notes that only two objections to the settlement have been served. One from an individual and one from an anti-nuclear group. The strong support for the settlement and minimal opposition, the settling parties continue to encourage prompt approval. As we discussed, during our March 27 investor call when we announced the settlement. Most refunds related to the settlement will be credited against the current under collections in SEC's fuel and purchased power balancing account known as "ERRA". A favorable decision on the settlement and timely CPUC decisions on the 2014 and 2015 ERRA forecast proceedings should substantially reduce the under-collections by the end of next year. The March 25 proposed decision on the 2014 ERRA forecast proceeding is consistent with this outcome and on April 1, FCE received a proposed decision that would grant it's request to accelerate the timeframe for filing its 2015 ERRA forecast proceeding. This would allow SEC to complete its 2015 ERRA proceeding. Well before year end and implement it in rates next year. These are constructive developments and we are hopeful that both will be approved by the CPUC at their May 1, meeting. While these developments are not material to earnings, they are important to FCE liquidity. Let me move to Edison Mission Energy; EME's bankruptcy has now been completed with the sale of substantially all of EME's assets to NRG Energy. On April 1, we closed on the settlement agreement transaction with EME's note holders. EME remains a subsidiary of Edison International free of bankruptcy claims and consolidated for tax purposes. We made the first of three scheduled payments for $225 million to a newly established trust on April 1. The remaining payments are due in September, 2015 and September, 2016. The exact amounts of these last two payments will be finalized once EME's tax attributes currently estimated to be $1.2 billion are finally determined. This work will be concluded in the next several months. As we move beyond these uncertainties, we continue to make progress on our 2015 general rate case. The schedule adopted by the CPUC calls for public participation hearings in late May, early June evidentiary hearings in July and August and the hearing record being completed in October. Well no date has been set for a proposed decision. We intend to meet all of the FCE deadlines to support a timely decision, although we can't predict that there will be one by the end of the year. The significant progress made in resolving SONGS and EME should allow investors to focus on Edison International's long-term earnings and dividend growth. We see forecasted capital investment producing a 7% to 9% compound annual growth rate and FCE's rate base through 2017. Beyond 2017, we see the need for annual capital expenditures in electric infrastructure to support reliability at level similar to those we are proposing in our 2015 GRC. A central tenet of our strategy is that we should lead in modernizing the distribution system. Building this next generation grid require significant technical know-how and capital investment. This is something Edison is particularly well positioned to do. The foundation of our investment case is the strong growth prospects for SCE. We also recognized the need to have a strategic eye on the transformative changes occurring in our industry that extend even beyond California. With this in mind, we are selectively pursuing other growth initiatives both with SCE and in competitive businesses. The last several years of investment has built a rate base that is now generating substantial earnings and cash flows. We believe this additional cash will support both strong future growth and larger dividend increases. I have said before and reiterate here, that we plan to return in steps overtime to our target of paying out 45% to 55% of FCE's earnings in dividends. Finally, to help achieve our mission of providing safe, reliable and affordable electric service to our customers. We need to increase our focus on rate design and operational excellence. We improved rate design called for with the passage of Assembly Bill 327 is central to managing rates and customer satisfaction in a period, when critical infrastructure improvements have to been undertaken. In the same vein, to be a best-in-class utility. We must continuously identify new cost efficiencies. The principal metrics we are using to guide our efforts to achieve affordable electric service for our customers are system average rates, operation and maintenance cost per customer and unit energy cost per megawatt hour. Using these high level metrics, we are able to create a range of initiatives to improve efficiency. The more SCE can provide customers with the benefits of these productivity improvements. The more we can maintain reliability and keep rates reasonable and also deliver on our growth opportunities. With that, let me now turn the call over to Jim Scilacci.
Jim Scilacci:
Thanks, Ted and good afternoon everyone. I'll cover the following topics; first quarter earnings, an update on the SONGS settlements and our fuel and purchased power inter-collection. Then I'll rate base in 2014 earnings guidance. Please turn to Page 2 of the presentation. As Ted just said first quarter core earnings are $0.90 per share. The higher earnings reflect rate base growth in lower O&M. there are also additional income tax benefits during the first quarter primarily from higher repair deductions. The overall impact of SONGS was a net $0.02 per share. For Q1, 2013 earnings for SONGS were lower than normal because of higher than authorized O&M cost and refunds recorded in our SONGS balancing accounts. At the holding company, first quarter cost of $0.03 per share consistent with our full year guidance. With the year-over-year comparison impacted by tax benefits in last year's first quarter. There are two non-core items in the first quarter of 2014. The first is the additional SONGS impairment, which is $0.29 per share. This is slightly lower than our original estimate of $0.31. I'll explain the reason for the difference in a moment. The second is $0.07 in cost related to the EME bankruptcy. Please note that, that since EME bankruptcy was concluded on April 1, the income from the settlement will be recorded as non-core in the second quarter. We also re-affirm our belief that the settlement will yield approximately $200 million of net benefits with a little more than $115 million expected in the second quarter. Please turn to Page 3, on our March 27, call announcing the settlement. We increased SONGS charges to $730 million pre-tax and the $465 million after tax. We have updated the charges that are included in our first quarter results with total pre-tax charge of $806 million and $461 million after taxes. There are number of items that were updated and are detailed in Page 16 of the Investor presentation appendix. The largest change is from an item that only affected pre-tax income and not after tax income. This is a refund of revenue from SONGS prepared deductions and other tax items that are flow through items for income tax purposes. SCE will ultimately recovery these revenues from customers, when these deferred taxes are paid to the IRS. This is the primary reason why the pre-tax impairment went up, while the after tax impairment didn't change that much. The charge of $0.29 recorded in the first quarter does not impact the estimated ongoing income benefit from a settlement of $0.03 per share in 2014 and which will be recorded after the settlement was adopted by the CPUC. More information on the regulatory asset accounting is provided in the appendix. The appendix also includes a settlement overview and a new slide that lays up this sharing mechanics between shareholders and customers of any future recoveries from either MHI or NEIL. There is nothing significant to record on either MHI or NEIL. Please turn to Slide 4. Slide 4 is the year of recovery chart that we showed on our March 27, call. This chart depicts the SONGS settlement refunds and increase in fuel and purchased power rates and distribution from the SONGS Nuclear Decommissiong Trust that would materially reduce the ERRA inter-collection by the end of this year. Please turn to Page 5. Page 5, is the updated ERRA recovery chart because of higher natural gas and market prices impacting both the March 31, actuals and our April to May forecast our projection of the ERRA inter-collection through May 31, has increased by $185 million to just over $1.6 billion. The expected distribution from the SONGS Nuclear Decommissiong Trust have not changed. The estimate of the settlement refunds has increased by approximately $95 million to $575 million. There are number of items that increased to refund but the most significant is the refund of flow through tax benefits I mentioned earlier. The last item is the impact on our 2014 ERRA filing on the inter-collection. On Thursday as Ted said at this week, we expect the CPUC to approve our amended 2014 ERRA obligation because of the increase in natural gas [forwards] and market prices not included in our filings. A reduction in the inter-collection is expected to be substantially less to what we've previously showed. As we all know, natural gas in power markets have been quite volatile this winter and prices are now off their peaks. Therefore the ultimate inter-collection of fuel and purchased power at year end 2014 is highly expected but likely to be higher than what we showed on March 27. In late May, SCE will file its 2015 ERRA obligation and at that time we will provide a revised ERRA forecast for year-end 2014 and 2015. On Page 6 and 7, we have reaffirmed our capital spending and rate base forecast through 2017. As Ted said, this includes the 7% to 9% compound annual growth rates. A rate base through 2017. I would note two things; first our actual capital spending for the first quarter was $684 million below the full-year trend line. However, we expect the full year spend to come in within the range provided. Second; our forecast largely reflects the scope of work included in the 2013, 2014 California ISO Transmission Plan recently approved by its Board of Directors that plan does include additional investment in SCE service territory that will be made in 2018 and beyond. Additionally, the California ISO deferred action on the proposed Delaney-Colorado River Project which would be a competitive project under the new FERC rules and one that we would be interested in pursuing if the project is economic. On Page 8, we've highlighted key elements of our capital spending and rate based growth from transmission and distribution investments from testing our liability as well as meeting California renewable goals. On Page 9, we have reaffirmed our core earnings guidance of $3.16 to $3.80 per share and updated our GAAP guidance to reflect actual non-core items recorded in the first quarter. We continue to exclude future non-core items for guidance. Our key earnings assumptions are unchanged. Although, we don't provide quarterly earnings guidance. I do want to remind everyone that when we use this simplified earnings model as a starting point for earnings guidance. SCE's operating expenses are generally recognized more evenly throughout the year, while revenues are more weighted to the third quarter. I'll close on Slide 10 by reiterating, what we believe our shareholder value commission model is an attractive one. We worked through our major uncertainties as Ted said and in the case of SONGS created alignment between customers and shareholders to aggressively seek recoveries from MHI and NEIL. We have reaffirmed our growth opportunity through T&D focused investment program complimented by decoupled business model that mitigates the impacts of fluctuating energy sales. Lastly, our total return prospects are supported by our significant dividend growth opportunity. In short we believe we're executing on our commitments to our shareholders and we will continue to do so. Okay, operator. Let's move to Q&A.
Operator:
Thank you. (Operator Instructions) first question from Michael Weinstein, UBS. Your line is open.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS Investment Bank:
Hi, good afternoon. It's Julian here. First quick question, if you can just following up on the transmission side of the equation. I'd be curious to the extent to which the State is pursuing broader solicitations beyond just the Delaney one. Could you comment to the extent to which that, your CapEx budget is exposed to that, the near and long-term and also to the extent to which you're interested in pursuing other projects that are within the State?
Jim Scilacci:
Okay, let me start with that one and I'll have others to fill in. I don't really think it's going to affect our capital budgets that we've shown publically which goes out through 2017. Beyond 2017, there could be some implications and I will suggest that we having interest if not through Southern California Edison through the competitive side of the business to participate in transmission projects outside the Southern California Edison service territory, so there is potential if we lose at SCE, they may be able to pick it up through the competitive side of the business, but that's still very premature. Do you want to follow-up?
Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS Investment Bank:
Yes, on a separate topic, I don't know if anything left there. But just again going back to ERRA liquidity just from a high level here just to make sure I'm hearing you correctly. At the end of the day, despite some of the impacts that higher power prices might be having on your liquidity and ERRA balancing accounts. Ultimately, your rate base and CapEx plan is intact and obviously has been shifted but I just want to make sure I'm hearing you, with respect to your current spending versus plan two.
Jim Scilacci:
For us, it's has not changed.
Operator:
Next question. Daniel Eggers, Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
Daniel Eggers – Credit Suisse:
Can you just updating investment talk about extending bonus depreciation and some talk recently about a permanent decision on bonus depreciation, what affect would that have A; on cash flow and B; on the agreement you have with the EME bankruptcy as with the estate as far as your ability to monetize those tax attributes?
Jim Scilacci:
You're probably seeing, Dan, it's Jim. You're probably seeing the same things we have from the Senate side proposal to extend bonus depreciation at 50% for two years. As it been here last several years, 50% bonus depreciation is a tremendous source of cash for the utility given the large amount of its capital budget running at $4 billion a year. I can't give you number off the top of my head, but its meaningful. So in effect what happens is, that cash would be available to Southern California Edison and since it would cover both 2014 potentially it's retroactive and looking forward prospectively 2015, that's a little hard to say what the impact would be on 2015 because right now it's not contemplated in our general rate case filing with the [tax] here is 2015. So we may have to update the filing, if that were the case. So it's harder to say what the impact would be on 2015 cash flow because it could be updated through the making process. Flipping over the other side of the equation, Edison International and the impact on the settlement. It would likely be that Southern California Edison had 50% bonus level would be in an NOL position or would be utilizing all the tax benefits available with the 50% bonus. Therefore, the NOLs that sit at EIX that our EIX loans or EME's would sit there and wait for future timeframe when we could actually monetize those and we're talking Federal Tax benefits here because as you recall, the State of California does not recognize bonus depreciation. So there are tax benefit that can be utilized for State Tax purposes that may not be able to being utilized for Federal Tax purposes. So I would suggest roughly if there's a 2-year extension of bonus. It could in effect backup the monetization probably 1.5 years to 2 years.
Daniel Eggers – Credit Suisse:
That means you have the fund the payments to the State via other means until the money is available to be procured from the EIX tax up, is that right?
Jim Scilacci:
Right, so we've got our revolvers shooting up EIX that we use to fund requirements and we would look to use our revolvers with some other type of similar facility for a 1 year to 2 year, if that's going to be delayed to 2 years.
Operator:
Next question. Hugh Wynne, Sanford Bernstein. Your line is open.
Hugh Wynne – Sanford Bernstein:
So I was wondering, if I could I could trouble you though walk us through Chart 21 and comment a little bit about old residential rate design OIR, what is the discount that [indiscernible]?
Jim Scilacci:
Okay, so Page 21, it's the residential rate design. OIR page in the deck for those who are on the phone. I'll start then hand it over to Ron. The chart here depicts what currently, we have in place is the four-tier structure and the price of each tier goes up, as you step up through the tiers. So the highest tier being approximately $0.32, a kilowatt hour as you're using those incremental kilowatts and we have proposed through the rate design proceeding to reduce the tier's down to two tier's ultimately and also increasing the fixed charge which is currently $0.94 a month to $10 and that's currently working its way through the PUC and I'll stop there and throw it over Ron, add detail here.
Ron Litzinger:
Right, what Jim was describing as what's referred as the phase one of the proceeding which will be ongoing throughout the year. We expect the decision either late in the year or early next to be implemented in time for summer 2015. We will step down the tiers overtime. We expect to get the two tiers by 2017. We will increase the fix charge over a 3-year period and what that will enable us to do is reduce the differential between our highest tier and our lowest tier to arrange that we're targeting. So that's really the long-term. In the short-term, for this summer which is referred to as Phase II, don't ask me why Phase II comes before Phase I but we've reached settlement with the consumer advocates there. The Commission had given us direction to stay within the four tier arrangement. So the way we are getting the upper tier rates down in relation to the lower tier's, is we are putting the majority of the rate increase into tiers I and II, that's the 12% and the 17%, we are showing on the slide, that keeps the rate increases in tier's III and IV much smaller, they'll be set residually that we are currently estimating about 2% to 5%. So that will help shrink the upper tier to lower tier differential, which is really our long-term, our overall goal to take that cross subsidy out between higher used customers and the lower used customers.
Hugh Wynne – Sanford Bernstein:
Okay and the fee you're phasing for the fixed charge. I assume you're talking I'm sorry, $15, $16, $17 is that right?
Ron Litzinger:
Yes, $15, $16, $17, $5, $7.50, $10.
Hugh Wynne – Sanford Bernstein:
And the reason for the $10 long-term target. I'm sure that's maturely below the sort of fixed cost of supply to the customer, is there are reason that you chose $10?
Ron Litzinger:
That's what the legislation dictated was $10.
Hugh Wynne – Sanford Bernstein:
That's the maximum that you can request?
Ron Litzinger:
That's correct.
Jim Scilacci:
I think we've said publically, that the process service is probably closer to nearly $30.
Ted Carver:
Nearly, $30 right.
Hugh Wynne – Sanford Bernstein:
The fixed portion of the cost of service, is that what you mean it?
Jim Scilacci:
Yes.
Operator:
Next question. Gregg Orrill, Barclays. Your line is open.
Gregg Orrill – Barclays Capital:
Just two quick ones. First on quarterly drivers, if you could break out the tax impact of repair taxes versus other and then just back to Slide 20. The 33% reserve margin and how that impacts you thinking in ERRA or otherwise?
Jim Scilacci:
Okay, so maybe we can reverse the order and talk about the reserve margin. So this is the current situation state and now how are the effects. You can tell by the numbers that 33% reserve margin is a quite a bit capacity and energy within the state to meet the needs for this year. There are some local issues that we have; we have done a lot of work in South Orange County to relieve both of these issues. And there are some other related in pass up in the San Joaquin Valley where we have been working on a transmission project seems like forever and we are delayed right now and hopefully with the – we can get that resolved, but the drought is impacted some regional areas up that. So this is incorporated in our current forecast and I guess one other thing, I should point out Gregg, that when you think about the drought there in California. We've got about 1,000 megawatts of hydro in our system. Clearly, the capacity of hydro system will be down this year, but what this chart was trying to show that we are heavily dependent on the Pacific Northwest and they are much closer to normal there as opposed to what happened here in California. So if we looked to the Northwest that is the critical factor and of course, we've got the Pacific intertie set up lines quite a bit of power from a Pacific Northwest to the Southern California, well that's the point of this chart here. I'll pause for a second and let you follow-up on, if we cover the question on related to ERRA.
Gregg Orrill – Barclays Capital:
No, I think you did that's fine.
Jim Scilacci:
Okay, so on the earnings related to the pieces for taxes. Mark, do you have anything there?
Mark Clarke:
So on the pre-tax impact on for the quarter was $231 million. The tax component of that is $135 million, so the after tax was $96 million and then the 10-Q has some additional details in it, on what the amounts are in the effective tax rate [indiscernible].
Gregg Orrill – Barclays Capital:
Okay, but the other outside of the pair. The other items were, are they general category that they were related to?
Mark Clarke:
The flow through items for the quarter were all property related majority relates to repairs and so our effective tax rate, when you set aside the SONGS non-core item was very similar to first quarter of last year, which is around 25%, 26%.
Gregg Orrill – Barclays Capital:
Okay, thank you.
Operator:
Next question. Michael Lapides, Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Michael Lapides – Goldman Sachs:
Ted, I want to just touch base on the comments you made about potential investment both looking for avenues or opportunities for growth within the utility but also outside of the utility? Can you talk about some of those in both categories, maybe starting with ones outside of the utility that you're likely to look at going forward and then some if there are non-traditional ones within the utility touch on those as well, please?
Ted Craver:
Yes, just probably at a high level at this point but we've mentioned before the acquisition that we made a while back of SoCore, the rooftop solar generation company and that's really the starting point for a platform focused on providing integrated energy services to commercial and industrial customers and that would be largely aimed outside of the SCE territory. We also are looking selectively at some projects that would involve electric transportation and potentially some water reclamation, water treatment activities. Where there is a strong nexus between electricity usage and water quality. Inside the utility, the pieces that we've mostly focused on are really things that further public policy initiatives within the State. So for instance, that California ISO along with some other State agencies have clearly identified a set of 'Preferred resources' that would be used for dealing with some of dislocations with San Onofre going out. So these are things like distributed generation, storage, energy efficiency, demand response. So we are looking at some pilot projects that would provide referred resources particularly in the areas most affected by San Onofre going out. And that would be additional growth opportunity within the utility. The State has a mandate on energy storage 1,300 megawatts across the State. Our share of that is a little less than 600 megawatts within SCE and half of that can be actually owned and put in rate based by the utility. So we are looking at those opportunities that would really ducktail with our modernizing the distribution system efforts. Community solars and other areas where that actually might be a combination of growth opportunities both within the utility and outside of the utility. So those are some of the high level areas. I think our approach is pretty well on this Michael. We prefer not to go out and ballyhoo all kind of nifty ideas before we really had a chance to kind of run them to ground and really have a more factual rendition of what those growth opportunities would be. So this point, we are looking at number of things. We think there are some good opportunities and as I said in my comments. It's important to have a strategic eye on, where some of these transformational changes might take place to both within California and outside and those can represent some decent growth opportunities.
Michael Lapides – Goldman Sachs:
How do you think about kind of [bogie] or the metric you would use between allocating capital to non-utility investments versus allocating more capital back to your shareholders including potentially revising upward the dividend payout ratio target that we are seeing a couple of other companies in the industry kind of go through the same thing, you have big CapEx periods, been a little of a slowing and a target payout ratio that keeps getting bumped up multiple times over a several year period.
Ted Craver:
Well I think very long-term, if in fact we have good growth opportunities that's really what will provide sustained earnings growth and sustained earnings growth ultimately circles back to providing sustained dividend growth. So it's the usual balancing acted every company has to go through. We see some very good opportunities both within California and potentially outside to operating solid sustained earnings growth rate. So we will look at each of those and it meets the hurdle requirement and we can see something that's really durable not just kind of one-off stuff or things that really are more distractions than sustained growth opportunities, we will look at those and invest accordingly. The reason I keep coming back to the statement, time and time again that we intend to return to our targeted payout ratio 45% to 55%, which I think is roughly correct for a company that has the level of growth that we have been experiencing for the last several years. So first step is to get ourselves back to that targeted payout ratio. Today, we're somewhere in the neighborhood of 35%, the payout ratio. Our target is 45% to 55%. So in order to get there, that suggests you have to have dividend increases that are a higher rate than what your earnings growth rate is and as we've said, we intend to do that in steps overtime.
Michael Lapides – Goldman Sachs:
Got it, thank you. Ted. Much appreciated.
Ted Craver:
You're welcome. Thanks for the good questions.
Jim Scilacci:
And Michael just one additional thought just from a rate making perspective. We have a holding company decision that we must give first priority to the utility when allocating capital, but there is plenty of capital to go around that's hasn’t been a factor for sometime but we must live under that requirement.
Michael Lapides – Goldman Sachs:
Understood, thank you Jim. Much appreciated.
Operator:
Next question. Angie Storozynski with Macquarie. Your line is open.
Angie Storozynski – Macquarie Research:
So I wanted to go back to this question about the statement about the 33% reserve margin despite the retirement of SONGS. So I know that this is on 2014, but does it mean that you think that you can meet the reliable needs of your service territory without actually signing PT's and your gas plans to replace to the [nuke] and purely throw some transformation upgrades and managing efficiency another non-generation methods?
Jim Scilacci:
Well, there's Angie, it's Jim. Ron and you jump over and then Ron can probably give you a full answer on this here, but the fact is we've got a lot of energy in this state of times, but may not be in the right place and we need to have voltage in the right places too and to in order need combination a lot of things. So we're going to need to meet the 33% renewable requirements. We have the storage requirements and we are going to have, the Commission has recently decided preferred resources to replace SONGS that includes Natural Gas powered generation and we have one through cooling plants going out at the end of the decade. A certain portion of that is going to need to be replaced with new generation. So there is a whole host of things that need to be done here and coordinated to get it right and I'll pause here and look to Ron or [Stu] to add detail.
Ron Litzinger:
I think it largely captured, Jim this is Ron. In the short-term, we've been focused on transmission upgrades to deal with local constraints in remediate term there is a long-term procurement decision out that identifies local generation resources that are required in the LA basin for both SONGS and eventually the ones through cooling units going away and you know at a very high level there are targets of what we are going to achieve with preferred resources that we've been talking about, the energy storage, distributed generation, energy efficiency but the balance or the bulk of it. And [Stu] probably has the precise number will be solicitations that we do for natural gas fired powered plants. Our desires within the basin to reduce the amount of transmission we need to do.
Angie Storozynski – Macquarie Research:
Thank you and separately about the SCE's rate base growth, the 7% to 9% key growth. How does it translate into earnings growth meaning, should I anticipate that there is a possibility for earnings to grow faster than the rate base? Thanks to for instance some efficiencies on the PAN side of another reasons.
Jim Scilacci:
So, Angie it's Jim. It should imply that if we are earning off for as return, that rate base growth should be coming pretty close to earnings growth and what can affect that upper-down is the level of short-term debt. You might have in the capital within -- you maybe carrying at any particular time because that's in effect at UDC earnings, but we typically don't carry a lot of short-term debt unless, we are bridge funding over a certain period. Now clearly tax benefits for our O&M savings have the capacity to enhance your earnings over and above your authorized return. We are not forecasting anything and what we have right now is being given up as part of the test year of the 2015 GRC and we would look to continue to seek efficiencies wherever we can and drive our cost down. So we are targeting to, want to get our cost metrics more in line with second to first quartile performance and we are not there yet. So there is the possibility for additional savings, we just have to fund it. So that, I'll pause. If you want to follow-up, how about that?
Angie Storozynski – Macquarie Research:
No, I'm all set. Thank you.
Operator:
Next question. Jonathan Arnold, Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
Jonathan Arnold – Deutsche Bank:
Just curious and you've talked about this before, you've said in the past on the topic of going to distributed generation in the speaking the residential sector, that you'll focus more on upgrading the grid in California to the level, what will be needed as you see that thing out and is there some kind of structural impediment to you considering participating in that business some point in the future? Maybe you need to sort of have the rate design issues sort it out, especially those you know to address. I guess, planned as to your satisfaction. Is there any side of business that we could ever see you sort of deciding to competing on your own territory?
Ted Craver:
Jonathan, it's Ted. I'll take a crack in answering that. I think generally, our sense is been the residential rooftop solar business models really largely requires subsidies and kind of cost shifting mechanisms to really be viable that is not been as appealing to us. As a result, we've really focused more on the commercials and industrial distributed generation activities. I think for the foreseeable future. We would not really look to try to put residential rooftop solar into owned that, put it into our rate base. Outside of the utility we do participate in couple of funds that really are companies that provide funds for doing both residential rooftop solar but that's a fairly indirect and small involvement in our part. So really the way we see it is, our primary strategy is provide the network, provide the backbone through a modern distribution system that really facilitates any and all of these distributed resources. Whether that's rooftop solar or whether its storage and anything else. That's the part that we are uniquely positioned to do well and that's really where our investment dollars are focused in the utility.
Operator:
Next question. Brian Chin, Merrill Lynch. Your line is open.
John Apgar – Merrill Lynch:
I just had a follow-up question on the income tax repair deduction for the quarter.
Jim Scilacci:
John, can you speak up a little bit?
John Apgar – Merrill Lynch:
Yes, I have a follow-up question on the income tax repair deduction for the quarter. I don't think you quantify that but it's $0.14 for the entire year was that mostly recognized in 1Q or how should we think about the timing of that recognition?
Jim Scilacci:
We are scratching our head here. You mean along the guidance, right. Yes, I'm sorry that was included in our guidance. I think we will have to take a closer look at that, we will come back to you on that.
John Apgar – Merrill Lynch:
Okay because it looks based on the quarter it looks there was a decent amount of property related tax gains for the quarter and I didn't know how much of that was the associated with that $0.14 that you laid out in guidance because it was $0.16 according to quarter and I'm not sure if most of that was recognized during the quarter.
Jim Scilacci:
We are going to have to follow back.
John Apgar – Merrill Lynch:
Okay. Thank you.
Jim Scilacci:
Thanks for the question. You stumped us.
Operator:
Next question. Ashar Khan. Begin, your line is open.
Ashar Khan:
My question has been answered. Thank you.
Operator:
Next question. Kit Konolige – BGC. Your line is open.
Kit Konolige – BGC Partners, Inc:
On Jim to follow-up on your comments that nothing new recovery from MHI or NEIL. I see on Slide 18, it seems to indicate that NEIL might have communication about recovery in the second quarter, but maybe not is that sometime around the second quarter?
Jim Scilacci:
That's our best estimate from what we've heard thus far.
Kit Konolige – BGC Partners, Inc:
Okay and – what's your thinking on when the arbitration with MHI might run its course?
Jim Scilacci:
It will take some time, Kit. We've said previously that we would expect the process to take up to three years. So we are just really getting into it now and unfortunately we can't give you a lot of details regarding the status of the arbitration. So its early on and we've got a lot of steps to go down the past. So I think you should probably just keeping asking us, but there is not a lot we can give you, given the confidentiality around it.
Kit Konolige – BGC Partners, Inc:
It doesn't sound like I have to ask every week though.
Jim Scilacci:
Please don't.
Kit Konolige – BGC Partners, Inc:
Right, I won't and one other area on energy storage. Ted, you addressed that as sort of overview. The first procurement is done in December, 2014 but it looks like most of that is already in existence. When would we start seeing significant amounts of energy storage that would indicate whether Edison is going to be the one investing in energy storage?
Ted Craver:
We are going to need to file an application in order to incorporate our plans for energy storage besides the ones that were shown on Page 22, at the investor deck. So it will be public and very obvious in terms of what our plans are and it's going to be wider. Now I wouldn't expect it to be until later this year and probably first starting next year. Ron, do you want to follow-up.
Ron Litzinger:
The only other opportunity for storage is within the preferred resource pilot storage is an option there, where you may see some movement as well.
Operator:
Next question. Ali Agha – SunTrust. Your line is open.
Ali Agha – SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc:
First question, what is – at the end of the quarter what was for regulatory purpose calculation, what was the equity ratio at the utility?
Jim Scilacci:
It's almost right on top of 48%, 48.9%.
Ali Agha – SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc:
Sorry?
Unidentified Company Representative:
48.9%.
Ali Agha – SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc:
48.9%, okay and second question, Ted you know historically the company, the board has used December as the time period to make changes to the dividend. As we look forward, then your plans to catch up over the next several years or next few years. Should we continue to think of December as the time period for that? I mean is there any reason why it could not be during the course of the year. How should we be thinking about this going forward?
Ted Craver:
Well, obviously you're right. December is typically one we've made dividend decision but that's just choice of ours that's not anything that's hardwired. So I think, I would basically say at any point in time based on what we see as the prospects for cash. We would have the ability to address the dividend and there is not in there, it has to be in December or annually, but I think at this point. I would just say, our primary focus right now is trying to make sure that we have complete the bits necessary to finish the EME settlement implementation and obviously I'll be focused on getting the San Onofre settlement approved, those are the key parts that we are focused on right at the moment.
Ali Agha – SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc:
Understood, thank you.
Operator:
Next question. Neel Mitra, Tudor, Pickering. Your line is open.
Neel Mitra – Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co:
I just wanted to touch on the opportunities surrounding competitive transmission outside every service territory. Where do you see those opportunities and when you think about investing in those would you partner with an incumbent utility or do you see yourself positioned to win some of those projects by yourself?
Ted Carver:
This is Ted. It is one of those potential growth areas, it's a reality that the FERC Order 1000 there is going to be a change in the way many of the transmission projects both within the State and outside get billed. I would say, really at this point all the above is possible. What we have observed is that, most of the transmission projects that are being bid on competitively involves some level of partnership activity. There is some good reasons for that and I would suspect that would be certainly one of the strong options open to us, but it is an active area of enquiry and we are interested in pursuing additional projects on the competitive transmission side, if they make sense and clear the return, how it is.
Neel Mitra – Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co:
Can you comment just geographically, where you see some of those opportunities within California?
Ted Carver:
I'd rather not get highly specific but the Cal ISO identified particular projects they're going to be looking at and so those are potential opportunities and some cases, it will make the most sense for us to do those as we've always done them with Southern California Edison participating directly. And in other cases, it might make more sense to do those through so-called competitive transmission vehicle.
Neel Mitra – Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co:
Would you out of State or just within California?
Ted Carver:
I think we would look, it’s a core competency that we have and we would look at projects again, so long as we are confident, they can be done for the right kind of risk reward trade-offs and that would clear out return hurdles.
Operator:
Travis Miller. Your line is now open.
Travis Miller – Morningstar:
Wanted to go back to the CapEx forecast. I heard correctly the 2018 and beyond you're looking at that same kind of run rate at that $4 billion, is that correct?
Jim Scilacci:
Again, Travis this is Jim. We haven't put any forecast out in the domain that we could give you a firm number but directionally, the distribution spending we don't expect will decline and we are trying to get our replacement rates for various components. We need to get them up higher than where we are today and that would imply that distribution spending could go up, somewhat. Expect with it, to try to put a number out there. What the transmission side of the equation would be because those are typically large and bulky investments. There is to be certain layer of maintenance CapEx for transmission investments that will be steady state and it will go up and down, if you have some new expenditures, you need to do it for lines or facilities, sub-stations. On the generation side, we just have some minimal legacy investments and the only, only thing we can't predict here today and I think Ted has already focused on those, is walking in the way of either of storage or preferred resources or related investments might due to the overall numbers. I don't think sitting here today, we can tell you what that's going to be because we are just looking at it now and it's something that we will have to evaluate and we won't put out a forecast beyond 2017 and so that's probably well over year from now or if not longer, so it's going to be awhile before we actually get into the public domain and what our thinking's are for that?
Travis Miller – Morningstar:
Okay and then at these levels, if you have the GRC accepted as you proposed similar level. How do you think about needs for new equity and timing on that?
Jim Scilacci:
Again, this is Jim. We have no plans for equity and what's helpful is the EME settlement provides earnings up to $200 million of additional income and things like bonus depreciation is a tremendous source of cash for the utility, should Congress decided to want to extend it and the President actually execute something here. Well there's just a tremendous amount of cash involved bonus depreciation, when you have a $4 billion of – around that level of capital expenditures. So we don't foresee any need for equity given our current plans.
Operator:
That was the last question. I would now like to turn the call back to Mr. Cunningham.
Scott Cunningham:
Thanks very much everyone for participating and don't hesitate to call up, if you have any follow-up question. Thanks for hearing.
Operator:
Thank you that does conclude the call for today. You may disconnect your phone lines at this time.