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Eversource Energy
ES · US · NYSE
66.45
USD
+0.7
(1.05%)
Executives
Name Title Pay
Mr. Duncan R. MacKay Chief Compliance Officer & Deputy General Counsel --
Ms. Susan L. Sgroi Executive Vice President of Human Resources & Information Technology --
Mr. Joseph R. Nolan Jr. President, Chief Executive Officer & Chairman 3.03M
Mr. James W. Hunt III Executive Vice President of Corporate Relations & Sustainability and Secretary 1.03M
Mr. Jay S. Buth Vice President, Controller & Chief Accounting Officer --
Mr. Jeffrey R. Kotkin Vice President of Investor Relations --
Mr. Paul Chodak III Executive Vice President & Chief Operating Officer --
Ms. Penelope McLean-Conner Executive Vice President of Customer Experience & Energy Strategy --
Mr. Gregory B. Butler Esq. Executive Vice President & General Counsel 1.19M
Mr. John M. Moreira Executive Vice President. Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer 1.31M
Insider Transactions
Date Name Title Acquisition Or Disposition Stock / Options # of Shares Price
2024-08-13 Conner Penelope M EVP-Cust Exp & Energy Strategy D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 815 65.5
2024-08-09 Conner Penelope M EVP-Cust Exp & Energy Strategy D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 500 64.936
2024-08-02 NOLAN JOSEPH R JR Chairman of the Bd, Pres & CEO D - G-Gift Common Shares, $5.00 par value 500 0
2024-05-31 Conner Penelope M EVP-Cust Exp & Energy Strategy D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2700 58.753
2024-05-29 BUTLER GREGORY B Executive VP & General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 10000 56.201
2024-03-01 FORRY LINDA DORCENA Trustee D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 822 58.12
2024-02-26 Williams Frederica M Trustee D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2714 57.604
2024-02-21 NOLAN JOSEPH R JR Chairman of the Bd, Pres & CEO D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 5155 57.52
2024-02-21 Moreira John M. EVP, CFO and Treasurer D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 628 57.52
2024-02-21 Conner Penelope M EVP-Cust Exp & Energy Strategy D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 599 57.52
2024-02-21 BUTLER GREGORY B Executive VP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2806 57.52
2024-02-21 BUTH JAY S. VP, Controller, Chief Acct Off D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 573 57.52
2024-02-15 Conner Penelope M EVP-Cust Exp & Energy Strategy D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 482 57.06
2024-02-15 NOLAN JOSEPH R JR Chairman of the Bd, Pres & CEO D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 9084 57.06
2024-02-15 Moreira John M. EVP, CFO and Treasurer D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 772 57.06
2024-02-15 Hunt James W III EVP-Corp Rel & Sustainability D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 237 57.06
2024-02-15 BUTLER GREGORY B Executive VP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1228 57.06
2024-02-15 BUTH JAY S. VP, Controller, Chief Acct Off D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 221 57.06
2024-01-31 Sgroi Susan EVP A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 7795 0
2024-01-31 NOLAN JOSEPH R JR Chairman of the Bd, Pres & CEO A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 37530 0
2024-01-31 NOLAN JOSEPH R JR Chairman of the Bd, Pres & CEO A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 9146 0
2024-01-31 Moreira John M. EVP, CFO and Treasurer A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 10413 0
2024-01-31 Moreira John M. EVP, CFO and Treasurer A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2139 0
2024-01-31 Hunt James W III EVP-Corp Rel & Sustainability A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 4585 0
2024-01-31 Hunt James W III EVP-Corp Rel & Sustainability A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2064 0
2024-01-31 Conner Penelope M EVP-Cust Exp & Energy Strategy A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 3869 0
2024-01-31 Conner Penelope M EVP-Cust Exp & Energy Strategy A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2040 0
2024-01-31 CHODAK PAUL III COO A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 9429 0
2024-01-31 BUTLER GREGORY B Executive VP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 6092 0
2024-01-31 BUTLER GREGORY B Executive VP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 7896 0
2024-01-31 BUTH JAY S. VP, Controller, Chief Acct Off A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1334 0
2024-01-31 BUTH JAY S. VP, Controller, Chief Acct Off A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1725 0
2024-01-16 DOYLE FRANCIS A Trustee A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2714 0
2024-01-18 VAN FAASEN WILLIAM C Trustee D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2714 54.5
2024-01-16 VAN FAASEN WILLIAM C Trustee A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2714 0
2024-01-16 Williams Frederica M Trustee A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2714 0
2024-01-16 NOVA DANIEL J Trustee A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2714 0
2024-01-16 Long David H. Trustee A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2714 0
2024-01-16 Leibler Kenneth R Trustee A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2714 0
2024-01-16 Kim John Y Trustee A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2714 0
2024-01-16 Keane Loretta D. Trustee A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2714 0
2024-01-16 Jones Gregory M Trustee A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2714 0
2024-01-16 CLEVELAND COTTON M Trustee A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2714 0
2024-01-16 FORRY LINDA DORCENA Trustee A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2714 0
2024-01-08 Sgroi Susan EVP D - Common Shares, $5.00 par value 0 0
2023-11-17 CHODAK PAUL III COO A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 16972 0
2023-11-17 Conner Penelope M EVP-Cust Exp & Energy Strategy A - I-Discretionary Phantom Shares 2328 0
2023-11-13 CHODAK PAUL III COO D - Common Shares, $5.00 par value 0 0
2023-08-16 BUTLER GREGORY B Executive VP & General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 15000 64.253
2023-07-05 NOVA DANIEL J A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1362 0
2023-06-01 NOVA DANIEL J D - Common Shares, $5.00 par value 0 0
2023-03-03 FORRY LINDA DORCENA D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1554 75.028
2023-02-22 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 5028 80.27
2023-02-22 Moreira John M. EVP, CFO and Treasurer D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 865 80.27
2023-02-22 NOLAN JOSEPH R JR Chairman of the Bd, Pres & CEO D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 4703 80.27
2023-02-22 Conner Penelope M EVP-Cust Exp & Energy Strategy D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 573 80.27
2023-02-22 Carmody Christine M EVP - HR and IT D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2779 80.27
2023-02-22 BUTLER GREGORY B Executive VP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 3580 80.27
2023-02-22 BUTH JAY S. VP, Controller, Chief Acct Off D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 547 80.27
2023-02-16 Williams Frederica M D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1943 78.83
2023-02-15 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 3135 78.89
2023-02-15 NOLAN JOSEPH R JR Chairman of the Bd, Pres & CEO D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 5481 78.89
2023-02-15 Moreira John M. EVP, CFO and Treasurer D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 381 78.89
2023-02-15 Conner Penelope M EVP-Cust Exp & Energy Strategy D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 448 78.89
2023-02-15 Carmody Christine M EVP - HR and IT D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1154 78.89
2023-02-15 BUTLER GREGORY B Executive VP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1664 78.89
2023-02-15 BUTH JAY S. VP, Controller, Chief Acct Off D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 322 78.89
2023-02-01 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 6086 0
2023-02-01 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 10870 0
2023-02-01 NOLAN JOSEPH R JR Chairman of the Bd, Pres & CEO A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 23392 0
2023-02-01 NOLAN JOSEPH R JR Chairman of the Bd, Pres & CEO A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 8965 0
2023-02-01 Moreira John M. EVP, CFO and Treasurer A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 5587 0
2023-02-01 Moreira John M. EVP, CFO and Treasurer A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2036 0
2023-02-01 Hunt James W III EVP-Corp Rel & Sustainability A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2325 0
2023-02-01 Hunt James W III EVP-Corp Rel & Sustainability A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1964 0
2023-02-01 Conner Penelope M EVP-Cust Exp & Energy Strategy A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1959 0
2023-02-01 Conner Penelope M EVP-Cust Exp & Energy Strategy A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1942 0
2023-02-01 Carmody Christine M EVP - HR and IT A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 3206 0
2023-02-01 Carmody Christine M EVP - HR and IT A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 6250 0
2023-02-01 BUTLER GREGORY B Executive VP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 3973 0
2023-02-01 BUTLER GREGORY B Executive VP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 7739 0
2023-02-01 BUTH JAY S. VP, Controller, Chief Acct Off A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 870 0
2023-02-01 BUTH JAY S. VP, Controller, Chief Acct Off A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1642 0
2023-01-19 VAN FAASEN WILLIAM C director D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1943 81.08
2023-01-17 Williams Frederica M director A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1943 0
2023-01-17 VAN FAASEN WILLIAM C director A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1943 0
2023-01-17 Long David H. director A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1943 0
2023-01-17 Leibler Kenneth R director A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1943 0
2023-01-17 Kim John Y director A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1943 0
2023-01-17 Keane Loretta D. director A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1943 0
2023-01-17 Jones Gregory M director A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1943 0
2023-01-17 FORRY LINDA DORCENA director A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1943 0
2023-01-17 DOYLE FRANCIS A director A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1943 0
2023-01-17 DiStasio James S director A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1943 0
2023-01-17 CLEVELAND COTTON M director A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1943 0
2023-01-01 Keane Loretta D. director D - Common Shares, $5.00 par value 0 0
2023-01-01 Keane Loretta D. director D - Common Shares, $5.00 par value 0 0
2022-08-29 BUTLER GREGORY B Executive VP & General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 5000 91.325
2022-06-01 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO D - G-Gift Common Shares, $5.00 par value 975 0
2022-06-01 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO A - G-Gift Common Shares, $5.00 par value 325 0
2022-06-01 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO A - G-Gift Common Shares, $5.00 par value 325 0
2022-06-01 BUTH JAY S. VP, Controller, Chief Acct Off D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 650 92.55
2022-05-24 Conner Penelope M EVP-Cust Exp & Energy Strategy D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 4000 91.75
2022-05-11 Carmody Christine M EVP - HR and IT D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 11159 90.14
2022-05-10 Conner Penelope M EVP-Cust Exp & Energy Strategy D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2000 91.5
2022-05-09 Williams Frederica M D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1859 90.84
2022-05-04 Moreira John M. EVP, CFO and Treasurer D - Common Shares, $5.00 par value 0 0
2022-05-04 Moreira John M. EVP, CFO and Treasurer I - Common Shares, $5.00 par value 0 0
2022-04-05 Hunt James W III EVP-Corp Rel & Sustainability D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 4444 90
2022-03-04 CLEVELAND COTTON M D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1859 84
2022-03-03 NOLAN JOSEPH R JR President and CEO D - G-Gift Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1200 0
2022-02-02 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 17120 0
2022-02-24 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 7919 79.7
2022-02-02 NOLAN JOSEPH R JR President and CEO A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 12917 0
2022-02-24 NOLAN JOSEPH R JR President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 5742 79.7
2022-02-02 LEMBO PHILIP J EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 17120 0
2022-02-24 LEMBO PHILIP J EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 7610 79.7
2022-02-02 JUDGE JAMES J Exec Chairman of the Board A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 78372 0
2022-02-24 JUDGE JAMES J Exec Chairman of the Board D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 30840 79.7
2022-02-02 Hunt James W III EVP-Corp Rel & Sustainability A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 3273 0
2022-02-24 Hunt James W III EVP-Corp Rel & Sustainability D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 965 79.7
2022-02-02 Conner Penelope M EVP-Cust Exp & Energy Strategy A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 3645 0
2022-02-24 Conner Penelope M EVP-Cust Exp & Energy Strategy D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1074 79.7
2022-02-02 Carmody Christine M EVP - HR and IT A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 11399 0
2022-02-24 Carmody Christine M EVP - HR and IT D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 5068 79.7
2022-02-02 BUTLER GREGORY B Executive VP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 14112 0
2022-02-24 BUTLER GREGORY B Executive VP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 6527 79.7
2022-02-02 BUTH JAY S. VP, Controller, Chief Acct Off A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 3082 0
2022-02-24 BUTH JAY S. VP, Controller, Chief Acct Off D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 484 79.7
2022-02-24 FORRY LINDA DORCENA D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1487 79.18
2022-02-22 BUTH JAY S. VP, Controller, Chief Acct Off D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 725 82.97
2022-02-15 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 3930 82.21
2022-02-15 NOLAN JOSEPH R JR President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 3566 82.21
2022-02-15 LEMBO PHILIP J EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 3662 82.21
2022-02-15 JUDGE JAMES J Exec Chairman of the Board D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 14068 82.21
2022-02-15 JUDGE JAMES J Exec Chairman of the Board D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 14068 82.21
2022-02-15 Hunt James W III EVP-Corp Rel & Sustainability D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 207 82.21
2022-02-15 Conner Penelope M EVP-Cust Exp & Energy Strategy D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 491 82.21
2022-02-15 BUTLER GREGORY B Executive VP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2430 82.21
2022-02-15 Carmody Christine M EVP - HR and IT D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1657 82.21
2022-02-15 BUTH JAY S. VP, Controller, Chief Acct Off D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 639 82.21
2022-02-02 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 18479 0
2022-02-02 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 5030 0
2022-02-02 NOLAN JOSEPH R JR President and CEO A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 13943 0
2022-02-02 NOLAN JOSEPH R JR President and CEO A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 18290 0
2022-02-02 LEMBO PHILIP J EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 18479 0
2022-02-02 LEMBO PHILIP J EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 4704 0
2022-02-02 JUDGE JAMES J Exec Chairman of the Board A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 84596 0
2022-02-02 JUDGE JAMES J Exec Chairman of the Board A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 15852 0
2022-02-02 Hunt James W III EVP-Corp Rel & Sustainability A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 3533 0
2022-02-02 Hunt James W III EVP-Corp Rel & Sustainability A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1888 0
2022-02-02 Conner Penelope M EVP-Cust Exp & Energy Strategy A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 3934 0
2022-02-02 Conner Penelope M EVP-Cust Exp & Energy Strategy A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1767 0
2022-02-02 Carmody Christine M EVP - HR and IT A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 12304 0
2022-02-02 Carmody Christine M EVP - HR and IT A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2891 0
2022-02-02 BUTLER GREGORY B Executive VP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 15233 0
2022-02-02 BUTLER GREGORY B Executive VP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 3580 0
2022-02-02 BUTH JAY S. VP, Controller, Chief Acct Off A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 3327 0
2022-02-02 BUTH JAY S. VP, Controller, Chief Acct Off A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 784 0
2021-12-31 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO D - Common Shares, $5.00 par value 0 0
2021-12-31 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO I - Common Shares, $5.00 par value 0 0
2021-12-31 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO I - Common Shares, $5.00 par value 0 0
2021-12-31 JUDGE JAMES J Exec Chairman of the Board I - Common Shares, $5.00 par value 0 0
2022-01-14 Williams Frederica M A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1859 0
2022-01-14 VAN FAASEN WILLIAM C A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1859 0
2022-01-18 VAN FAASEN WILLIAM C D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1859 86.85
2022-01-14 Long David H. A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1859 0
2022-01-14 Leibler Kenneth R A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1859 0
2022-01-14 Kim John Y A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1859 0
2022-01-14 Jones Gregory M A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1859 0
2022-01-14 FORRY LINDA DORCENA A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1859 0
2022-01-14 DiStasio James S A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1859 0
2022-01-14 DOYLE FRANCIS A A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1859 0
2022-01-14 CLEVELAND COTTON M A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1859 0
2021-08-12 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO D - I-Discretionary Common Shares, $5.00 par value 482 89.6
2021-08-12 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO D - I-Discretionary Phantom Shares 32119 0
2021-08-09 Conner Penelope M EVP-Cust Exp & Energy Strategy A - I-Discretionary Phantom Shares 7117 0
2021-08-04 FORRY LINDA DORCENA D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 625 87.792
2021-06-04 BUTLER GREGORY B Executive VP & General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 12000 82.16
2021-05-18 BUTH JAY S. VP, Controller, Chief Acct Off D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 50 84.26
2021-05-18 BUTH JAY S. VP, Controller, Chief Acct Off D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2951 84.385
2021-05-18 BUTH JAY S. VP, Controller, Chief Acct Off D - I-Discretionary Common Shares, $5.00 par value 318 84.27
2021-05-05 Hunt James W III EVP-Corp Rel & Sustainability D - Common Shares, $5.00 par value 0 0
2021-05-05 Hunt James W III EVP-Corp Rel & Sustainability D - Common Shares, $5.00 par value 0 0
2021-05-05 Hunt James W III EVP-Corp Rel & Sustainability I - Common Shares, $5.00 par value 0 0
2021-05-05 Conner Penelope M EVP-Cust Exp & Energy Strategy D - Common Shares, $5.00 par value 0 0
2021-05-05 Conner Penelope M EVP-Cust Exp & Energy Strategy I - Common Shares, $5.00 par value 0 0
2021-05-05 Conner Penelope M EVP-Cust Exp & Energy Strategy D - Phantom Shares 5021 0
2021-05-14 CLEVELAND COTTON M D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1813 86
2021-05-14 CLEVELAND COTTON M D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 45 85.79
2021-05-13 VAN FAASEN WILLIAM C D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1813 85.147
2021-02-25 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 8540 81.46
2021-02-25 NOLAN JOSEPH R JR EVP-Strategy, Cust & Corp Rel D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 5856 81.46
2021-02-25 LEMBO PHILIP J EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 8084 81.46
2021-02-25 Carmody Christine M EVP - HR and IT D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 5193 81.46
2021-02-25 BUTLER GREGORY B Executive VP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 6623 81.46
2021-02-22 LEMBO PHILIP J EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 7874 81.46
2021-02-22 JUDGE JAMES J President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 37016 81.46
2021-02-22 Carmody Christine M EVP - HR and IT D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 4400 81.46
2021-02-22 BUTLER GREGORY B Executive VP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 6074 81.46
2021-02-22 BUTH JAY S. VP, Controller, Chief Acct Off D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 650 81.46
2021-02-16 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 3362 85.17
2021-02-16 NOLAN JOSEPH R JR EVP-Strategy, Cust & Corp Rel D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 4292 85.17
2021-02-16 NOLAN JOSEPH R JR EVP-Strategy, Cust & Corp Rel D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 4292 85.17
2021-02-16 LEMBO PHILIP J EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 3096 85.17
2021-02-16 JUDGE JAMES J President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 18839 85.17
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2020-12-31 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO I - Common Shares, $5.00 par value 0 0
2020-12-31 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO I - Common Shares, $5.00 par value 0 0
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2021-02-08 NOLAN JOSEPH R JR EVP-Strategy, Cust & Corp Rel A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 3944 0
2021-02-08 LEMBO PHILIP J EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 18186 0
2021-02-08 LEMBO PHILIP J EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 4472 0
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2021-02-08 JUDGE JAMES J President and CEO A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 83273 0
2021-02-08 JUDGE JAMES J President and CEO A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 18566 0
2021-02-08 JUDGE JAMES J President and CEO A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 18566 0
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2021-02-08 BUTLER GREGORY B Executive VP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 3404 0
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2020-02-05 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 9235 0
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2016-02-24 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 4104 56
2015-01-06 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 12500 54
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2016-02-24 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 5000 56
2016-03-08 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 5000 57
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2020-02-05 LEMBO PHILIP J EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 8635 0
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2020-02-05 Carmody Christine M EVP - HR and IT A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 5310 0
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2020-02-05 NOLAN JOSEPH R JR EVP-Customer & Corp Relations A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 7616 0
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2020-01-15 Leibler Kenneth R Trustee A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1908 0
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2019-08-26 LEMBO PHILIP J EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - G-Gift Common Shares, $5.00 par value 373 0
2019-08-26 LEMBO PHILIP J EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - G-Gift Common Shares, $5.00 par value 373 0
2019-08-26 LEMBO PHILIP J EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - G-Gift Common Shares, $5.00 par value 125 0
2019-08-26 LEMBO PHILIP J EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - G-Gift Common Shares, $5.00 par value 3 0
2019-08-26 LEMBO PHILIP J EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - G-Gift Common Shares, $5.00 par value 3 0
2019-08-26 LEMBO PHILIP J EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - G-Gift Common Shares, $5.00 par value 125 0
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2019-08-26 LEMBO PHILIP J EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - I-Discretionary Phantom Shares 4080 0
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2019-05-01 Long David H. D - Common Shares, $5.00 par value 0 0
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2019-02-25 JUDGE JAMES J President and CEO D - G-Gift Common Shares, $5.00 par value 7034 0
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2019-02-26 JUDGE JAMES J President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 79508 69.5
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2019-02-15 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1924 70.1
2019-02-15 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1729 70.1
2019-02-15 Olivier Leon J EVP- Energy Strategy/Bus. Dev. D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1662 70.1
2019-02-15 Olivier Leon J EVP- Energy Strategy/Bus. Dev. D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2059 70.1
2019-02-15 Olivier Leon J EVP- Energy Strategy/Bus. Dev. D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1832 70.1
2019-02-15 NOLAN JOSEPH R JR EVP-Customer & Corp Relations D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 486 70.1
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2019-02-15 JUDGE JAMES J President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 7483 70.1
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2019-02-15 Carmody Christine M EVP - HR and IT D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 695 70.1
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2019-02-06 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 10103 0
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2019-02-06 Olivier Leon J EVP- Energy Strategy/Bus. Dev. A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 10542 0
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2019-02-06 LEMBO PHILIP J EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 10103 0
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2019-02-06 BUTLER GREGORY B Executive VP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 8328 0
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2018-02-15 NOLAN JOSEPH R JR EVP-Customer & Corp Relations D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 471 57.58
2018-02-15 NOLAN JOSEPH R JR EVP-Customer & Corp Relations D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 803 57.58
2018-02-15 LEMBO PHILIP J EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 184 57.58
2018-02-15 LEMBO PHILIP J EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 193 57.58
2018-02-15 LEMBO PHILIP J EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1167 57.58
2018-02-15 JUDGE JAMES J President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1599 57.58
2018-02-15 JUDGE JAMES J President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1893 57.58
2018-02-15 JUDGE JAMES J President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 7377 57.58
2018-02-15 Carmody Christine M EVP - HR and IT D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 379 57.58
2018-02-15 Carmody Christine M EVP - HR and IT D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 414 57.58
2018-02-15 Carmody Christine M EVP - HR and IT D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 749 57.58
2018-02-15 BUTLER GREGORY B Executive VP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 792 57.58
2018-02-15 BUTLER GREGORY B Executive VP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 864 57.58
2018-02-15 BUTLER GREGORY B Executive VP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1222 57.58
2018-02-15 BUTH JAY S. VP, Controller, Chief Acct Off D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 211 57.58
2018-02-15 BUTH JAY S. VP, Controller, Chief Acct Off D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 101 57.58
2017-12-31 JUDGE JAMES J President and CEO I - Common Shares, $5.00 par value 0 0
2017-12-31 Olivier Leon J EVP- Energy Strategy/Bus. Dev. I - Common Shares, $5.00 par value 0 0
2018-02-07 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 11319 0
2018-02-07 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 10845 0
2018-02-07 Olivier Leon J EVP- Energy Strategy/Bus. Dev. A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 12019 0
2018-02-07 Olivier Leon J EVP- Energy Strategy/Bus. Dev. A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 11498 0
2018-02-07 NOLAN JOSEPH R JR EVP-Customer & Corp Relations A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 4434 0
2018-02-07 NOLAN JOSEPH R JR EVP-Customer & Corp Relations A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 4434 0
2018-02-07 NOLAN JOSEPH R JR EVP-Customer & Corp Relations A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 7737 0
2018-02-07 NOLAN JOSEPH R JR EVP-Customer & Corp Relations A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 7737 0
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2018-02-07 LEMBO PHILIP J EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 10682 0
2018-02-07 JUDGE JAMES J President and CEO A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 11435 0
2018-02-07 JUDGE JAMES J President and CEO A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 48912 0
2018-02-07 Carmody Christine M EVP - HR and IT A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 4084 0
2018-02-07 Carmody Christine M EVP - HR and IT A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 6862 0
2018-02-07 BUTLER GREGORY B Executive VP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 8051 0
2018-02-07 BUTLER GREGORY B Executive VP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 8410 0
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2018-01-16 Leibler Kenneth R A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2175 0
2018-01-16 LACAMERA PAUL A A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2175 0
2018-01-16 Kim John Y A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2175 0
2018-01-16 GIFFORD CHARLES K A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2175 0
2018-01-16 DOYLE FRANCIS A A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2175 0
2018-01-16 DiStasio James S A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2175 0
2018-01-16 CLOUD SANFORD JR A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2175 0
2018-01-16 CLEVELAND COTTON M A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2175 0
2018-01-16 CLARKESON JOHN S A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2175 0
2018-01-01 Kim John Y D - Common Shares, $5.00 par value 0 0
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2017-09-05 BUTH JAY S. VP, Controller, Chief Acct Off D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 138 62.95
2017-08-17 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO D - I-Discretionary Phantom Shares 21817 0
2017-05-31 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO A - M-Exempt Common Shares, $5.00 par value 36736 26.9
2017-05-31 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 36736 62
2017-05-31 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 36736 26.9
2017-05-23 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO A - M-Exempt Common Shares, $5.00 par value 48544 25.93
2017-05-23 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO A - M-Exempt Common Shares, $5.00 par value 48544 25.93
2017-05-23 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 48544 61.0079
2017-05-23 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 48544 61.0079
2017-05-23 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 48544 25.93
2017-05-23 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 48544 25.93
2017-03-22 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO A - M-Exempt Common Shares, $5.00 par value 39360 24.74
2017-03-22 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 39360 60
2017-03-22 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 39360 24.74
2017-03-06 MAY THOMAS J D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 48267 58.3012
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2017-03-01 MAY THOMAS J D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 23635 54.7
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2017-03-01 MAY THOMAS J D - M-Exempt Phantom Shares 52875 0
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2017-02-27 Olivier Leon J EVP- Energy Strategy/Bus. Dev. D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 35000 58.8854
2017-02-23 MAY THOMAS J A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 57335 0
2017-02-23 MAY THOMAS J D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 29297 56.15
2017-02-23 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 8923 0
2017-02-23 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 4360 56.15
2017-02-23 Olivier Leon J EVP- Energy Strategy/Bus. Dev. A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 13333 0
2017-02-23 Olivier Leon J EVP- Energy Strategy/Bus. Dev. D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 6475 56.15
2017-02-23 NOLAN JOSEPH R JR EVP-Customer & Corp Relations A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 4923 0
2017-02-23 NOLAN JOSEPH R JR EVP-Customer & Corp Relations D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1791 56.15
2017-02-23 NOLAN JOSEPH R JR EVP-Customer & Corp Relations D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 6282 58.279
2017-02-23 LEMBO PHILIP J EVP, CFO and Treasurer A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2153 0
2017-02-23 LEMBO PHILIP J EVP, CFO and Treasurer D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 699 56.15
2017-02-23 JUDGE JAMES J President and CEO A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 12718 0
2017-02-23 JUDGE JAMES J President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 5985 56.15
2017-02-23 Carmody Christine M EVP - HR and IT A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 4410 0
2017-02-23 Carmody Christine M EVP - HR and IT D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1432 56.15
2017-02-23 BUTLER GREGORY B Executive VP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 8820 0
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2017-02-23 BUTH JAY S. VP, Controller, Chief Acct Off A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2256 0
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2017-02-17 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1096 55.95
2017-02-17 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1342 55.95
2017-02-17 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1984 55.95
2017-02-17 Olivier Leon J EVP- Energy Strategy/Bus. Dev. D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1255 55.95
2017-02-17 Olivier Leon J EVP- Energy Strategy/Bus. Dev. D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1638 55.95
2017-02-17 Olivier Leon J EVP- Energy Strategy/Bus. Dev. D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1485 55.95
2017-02-17 NOLAN JOSEPH R JR EVP-Customer & Corp Relations D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 573 55.95
2017-02-17 NOLAN JOSEPH R JR EVP-Customer & Corp Relations D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 439 55.95
2017-02-17 NOLAN JOSEPH R JR EVP-Customer & Corp Relations D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 503 55.95
2017-02-17 LEMBO PHILIP J EVP, CFO and Treasurer D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 251 55.95
2017-02-17 LEMBO PHILIP J EVP, CFO and Treasurer D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 197 55.95
2017-02-17 LEMBO PHILIP J EVP, CFO and Treasurer D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 206 55.95
2017-02-17 JUDGE JAMES J D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2146 55.95
2017-02-17 JUDGE JAMES J D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1641 55.95
2017-02-17 JUDGE JAMES J D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1943 55.95
2017-02-17 Carmody Christine M EVP - HR and IT D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 514 55.95
2017-02-17 Carmody Christine M EVP - HR and IT D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 405 55.95
2017-02-17 Carmody Christine M EVP - HR and IT D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 442 55.95
2017-02-17 BUTLER GREGORY B Executive VP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1083 55.95
2017-02-17 BUTLER GREGORY B Executive VP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 841 55.95
2017-02-17 BUTLER GREGORY B Executive VP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 985 55.95
2017-02-17 BUTH JAY S. VP, Controller, Chief Acct Off D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 359 55.95
2017-02-17 BUTH JAY S. VP, Controller, Chief Acct Off D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 289 55.95
2016-12-31 Olivier Leon J EVP- Energy Strategy/Bus. Dev. I - Common Shares, $5.00 par value 0 0
2016-12-31 MAY THOMAS J I - Common Shares, $5.00 par value 0 0
2016-12-31 LEMBO PHILIP J EVP, CFO and Treasurer I - Common Shares, $5.00 par value 0 0
2016-12-31 LEMBO PHILIP J EVP, CFO and Treasurer I - Common Shares, $5.00 par value 0 0
2017-02-02 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 11703 0
2017-02-02 Olivier Leon J EVP- Energy Strategy/Bus. Dev. A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 12526 0
2017-02-02 NOLAN JOSEPH R JR EVP-Customer & Corp Relations A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 7920 0
2017-02-03 MAY THOMAS J D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 26750 55.32
2017-02-03 MAY THOMAS J D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 15932 55.32
2017-02-03 MAY THOMAS J D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 9187 55.32
2017-02-02 LEMBO PHILIP J EVP, CFO and Treasurer A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 11520 0
2017-02-02 JUDGE JAMES J A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 48259 0
2017-02-03 JUDGE JAMES J D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 90000 56
2017-02-02 Carmody Christine M EVP - HR and IT A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 7392 0
2017-02-02 BUTLER GREGORY B Executive VP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 9052 0
2017-02-02 BUTH JAY S. VP, Controller, Chief Acct Off A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1874 0
2017-01-17 WRAASE DENNIS R A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2452 0
2017-01-17 Williams Frederica M A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2452 0
2017-01-17 VAN FAASEN WILLIAM C A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2452 0
2017-01-17 MAY THOMAS J A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2452 0
2017-01-17 Leibler Kenneth R A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2452 0
2017-01-17 LACAMERA PAUL A A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2452 0
2017-01-17 GIFFORD CHARLES K A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2452 0
2017-01-17 DOYLE FRANCIS A A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2452 0
2017-01-17 DiStasio James S A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2452 0
2017-01-17 CLOUD SANFORD JR director A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2452 0
2017-01-17 CLEVELAND COTTON M A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2452 0
2017-01-17 CLARKESON JOHN S director A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2452 0
2017-01-09 MAY THOMAS J D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 40000 54.7892
2017-01-04 MAY THOMAS J D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 40000 55.2619
2017-01-05 MAY THOMAS J D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 40000 55.13
2017-01-06 MAY THOMAS J D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 40000 55.1979
2016-11-28 MAY THOMAS J director D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 200000 53.8047
2016-11-28 MAY THOMAS J Chrmn of the Board & Trustee D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 200000 53.8047
2016-11-08 MAY THOMAS J D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 200000 55.1
2016-10-05 MAY THOMAS J A - M-Exempt Common Shares, $5.00 par value 883770 7.5
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2016-09-09 CLOUD SANFORD JR A - P-Purchase Common Shares, $5.00 par value 432 54.0884
2016-09-08 BUTLER GREGORY B Executive VP & General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 10000 54.7719
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2016-07-15 MAY THOMAS J director A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1140 0
2016-07-15 MAY THOMAS J Chrmn of the Board & Trustee A - A-Award Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1140 0
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2016-03-04 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 47232 0
2016-03-04 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO D - M-Exempt Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) 47232 28.12
2016-03-01 MAY THOMAS J Chrmn of Bd, President & CEO D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 68233 54.15
2016-03-01 NOLAN JOSEPH R JR SVP-Corporate Relations D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 7655 54.5
2016-03-01 McHale David R EVP and Chief Admin Off D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 25000 54.55
2016-02-23 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 896 56
2016-02-24 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO D - S-Sale Common Shares, $5.00 par value 9104 56
2016-02-19 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1006 53.51
2016-02-19 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1086 53.51
2016-02-22 SCHWEIGER WERNER J Executive VP and COO D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 4777 54.67
2016-02-19 Olivier Leon J EVP-Business Development D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1624 53.51
2016-02-19 Olivier Leon J EVP-Business Development D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 2025 53.51
2016-02-19 Olivier Leon J EVP-Business Development D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 1735 53.51
2016-02-22 Olivier Leon J EVP-Business Development D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 8505 54.67
2016-02-19 NOLAN JOSEPH R JR SVP-Corporate Relations D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 611 53.51
2016-02-19 NOLAN JOSEPH R JR SVP-Corporate Relations D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 611 53.51
2016-02-19 NOLAN JOSEPH R JR SVP-Corporate Relations D - F-InKind Common Shares, $5.00 par value 556 53.51
Transcripts
Operator:
Good morning and good afternoon ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Eversource Energy Q2 2024 Earnings Call. My name is Jaquita. I will be your moderator for today's call. All lines will be muted during the presentation portion of the call with the opportunity for questions and answers at the end. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to pass the conference over to your host Matthew Fallon with Eversource Energy Director for Investor Relations. Matt please go ahead.
Matthew Fallon:
Good morning and thank you for joining us. I am Matthew Fallon, Eversource Energy’s Director for Investor Relations. During this call, we’ll be referencing slides that we posted yesterday on our website. As you can see on Slide 1, some of the statements made during this investor call may be forward-looking. These statements are based on management’s current expectations and are subject to risk and uncertainty, which may cause the actual results to differ materially from forecasts and projections. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any of these statements. Additional information about the various factors that may cause actual results to differ and our explanation of non-GAAP measures and how they reconcile to GAAP results is contained within our news release, the slides that we posted last night and in our most recent 10-Q. Speaking today will be Joe Nolan, our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and John Moreira, our Executive Vice President, CFO and Treasurer. Also joining us today is Jay Buth, our Vice President and Controller. I will now turn the call over to Joe.
Joe Nolan:
Thank you, Matt. Good morning everyone and thank you for joining us on the call. Let me begin with an update on offshore wind. I am very pleased to report that we have closed the sale of Sunrise Wind Project to Ørsted and that we anticipate closing the sale of our South Fork and Revolution Wind Projects to Global Infrastructure Partners in the third quarter. Closing these sales delivers on our commitment to exit the offshore wind business and focus our resources on being a pure play regulated utility with tremendous low risk regulated growth opportunities to enable the clean energy transition for customers. Turning to Slide 3. We continue to be a leader on delivering energy solutions for our customers with our focus on resiliency investments to address aging infrastructure and minimize customer outages on blue sky days and during storm events. We are also very busy preparing for the future of electrification to achieve our region's greenhouse gas reduction goals. Moving to Slide 4. Shown here are our state's near-term and long-term greenhouse gas reduction goals. To achieve these goals, we are planning investments to our grid to meet the demand growth from electrification of transportation in residential and commercial heating sectors. This effort requires us to upgrade and expand the electric system to handle the new demands that we will face, including more EV charging, more customers turning to heat pumps to warm and cool their homes, and expanded capacity needs to accommodate additional renewable energy resources. In addition, we must make our system smarter and stronger to withstand Mother Nature and the forces of climate change, which are resulting in more frequent and intense storms. We are continuing to invest in our electric system with smart technologies to help the grid automatically adjust to disturbances on the system and empower customers with more information to control their energy use. These increasing demands on the electric system make it critical for us to work together with our regulators to obtain timely cost recovery and maintain a solid financial position for the company. A strong financial position enables Eversource to plan for and meet these increasing demands while continuing to provide high levels of safe, reliable service to our customers. Turning to Slide 5. Our nearly $6 billion in transmission investments over the next five years is the largest program in our company's history and is key to achieving our collective greenhouse gas reduction goals. Based on system needs, our transmission investment program is moving from overhead line rebuilds in smaller reliability projects to much needed new substations to meet electrification demands and work toward a carbon free future. In our five year plan, these new substations and substation upgrades will equal approximately $1 billion of investment, and over $600 million of transmission projects are planned to enable clean energy resources. Our five year transmission investment program also includes over $3 billion for investments to replace aging infrastructure. We are also evaluating additional infrastructure requirements that could materialize during this forecast, and we expect incremental projects will be needed as we move forward. As we plan ahead, there are many areas of focus, such as advancing the electric sector modernization plan in Massachusetts, increasing import capacity into Boston, and enabling offshore wind and other renewables to advance regional decarbonization efforts that will drive transmission infrastructure investment for years to come. To give you an example of the magnitude of the incremental transmission investments we are seeing over the next ten years, we are planning for over a dozen new substations in Eastern Massachusetts alone to meet demand, compared to just four new substations constructed in that service area in the past decade. Moving to electric distribution on Slide 6, we are preparing for substantial growth in distribution investment. In Massachusetts, our current electric distribution investment plan is nearly double the previous five year plan. As we move forward to prepare for significant electric demand growth in Massachusetts to meet the state's clean energy goals, we are constantly evaluating solutions that will provide the right balance in outcomes for our customers. In order to determine our distribution system investments needs in Massachusetts, we have carefully evaluated the factors that drive the needs in each specific area, allowing us to plan efficiently and cost effectively for future system needs. Turning to Slide 7. We are very pleased with our progress of our Massachusetts AMI program, which we and other stakeholders know is critical for enabling a clean energy future. As part of the Massachusetts AMI program, we recently completed successful implementation of a new customer billing and information system, replacing a nearly 40-year-old system. This new customer system will provide a critical foundation for our AMI deployment. We are currently working on system design, building and testing of our meter management and communication applications, which we expect to conclude this summer. Network construction is anticipated to start early next year, with smart meter installation beginning in the third quarter next year. Our Massachusetts AMI program will deliver numerous day one benefits to customers, including improved grid management to enhance reliability and customer access to monitor electric consumption and control energy use. Further customer benefits include greater visibility on outages to enhance storm restoration response and dynamic rate design to enable customers to adjust electric use and lower their bills. Although we're very excited about the future transition to electrification, we are deeply committed to keeping the customer journey front and center. Affordability and fair and balanced rate design, along with a focus on environmental justice communities is top of mind for Eversource. A good example of Eversource's exploration of creative solutions to enable an equitable transition to clean energy is our first of its kind network geothermal pilot in Framingham, Massachusetts, which came online in June. We look forward to continuing our productive partnership with the state of Massachusetts as we deploy innovative technologies and pursue our carbon emission reduction goals. Turning to Connecticut, I want to thank the Lamont administration for its collaboration with utilities to provide regulatory clarity to continue the electric vehicle charging program. The solution that PURA is now preparing to put in place benefits our Connecticut customers while ensuring timely and adequate recovery of program costs. As I said before, it is critical to ensure that our customers receive safe, reliable and affordable service in a balanced regulatory environment is the best way to get there. Also, you may have heard that Governor Lamont has nominated David Arconti as the new PURA commissioner to take the place of Vice Chairman Betkoski, who is retiring this coming January. We are encouraged that David is a nominee with keen interest in energy policy and valuable experience as a former member of the Connecticut General Assembly. We are hopeful that this is a step forward in bringing Connecticut closer to its state policy goals with recognition that investment is needed to support these goals. Touching on New Hampshire, we continue to see positive momentum on the collaborative approach to plan for long-term energy needs with the signing of House Bill 1431 by Governor Sununu in July. This still requires utilities to file integrated distribution plans with the Public Utilities Commission every five years, a 10-year forecast of electric demand and an assessment of the distribution infrastructure needed to meet projected energy demands. Moving to Eversource's focus on our company's specific emission goals and employee development, I want to highlight the release of our 2023 Sustainability Report in our diversity, equity and inclusion report, as shown on Slide 8. Eversource has been a leader in these areas for many years, and it's a part of our DNA. In this year's sustainability report, we've submitted our specific greenhouse gas reduction targets to the science-based target initiative. We also highlight the progress made towards reaching our goals of carbon neutrality from our operations by 2030 with over 30% reduction in emissions from the 2018 baseline year. We are excited about the future. Eversource is uniquely positioned to leverage its skills, expertise and scale to build utility infrastructure. That will enhance system resiliency and transition to a clean energy future for our customers. We have a long runway of low-risk regulated investment opportunities and earnings growth potential, focused on delivering long-term value to our customers and our investors. Thank you for your interest in Eversource. I will now turn the call over to John Moreira to walk you through our financial results and progress made towards strengthening our balance sheet.
John Moreira:
Thank you, Joe, and good morning, everyone. This morning, I will discuss our second quarter earnings results, provide a regulatory update and review our financing activity. As shown on Slide 9, our GAAP and recurring earnings for the second quarter were $0.95 per share as compared with GAAP earnings of $0.04 per share in the second quarter of 2023 and recurring earnings of $1 per share in the second quarter of last year. You will recall in the second quarter of 2023, we recorded the first of two impairment charges associated with our offshore wind investment of $331 million, or $0.95 per share. We also had other nonrecurring charges of $6.2 million, or $0.01 per share, in the second quarter of 2023. Both items are included in our GAAP earnings results for 2023. Breaking down the second quarter earnings results by segment, starting with electric transmission, which earned $0.54 per share compared with earnings of $0.46 per share in 2023. Electric transmission earnings increased due to rate base growth. Our electric distribution earnings were $0.42 per share for the quarter compared with earnings of $0.47 per share in 2023. The earnings decrease was due primarily to higher O&M expense, driven by higher storm restoration costs and the absence of a favorable prior year regulatory adjustment in New Hampshire, partially offset by higher revenues driven by NSTAR Electric's base distribution rate increase effective January 1 of this year. Electric distribution earnings are expected to be higher in the second half of the year, driven by capital cost recovery and New Hampshire's $61 million interim rate increase effective August 1. Our natural gas distribution business earned $0.08 per share for the quarter compared with $0.03 per share last year. The earnings increase was due primarily to higher revenues from NSTAR Gas' November 1, 2023 rate increase and lower O&M partially offset by higher depreciation, interest and property tax expenses. The Water Distribution segment contributed $0.02 per share for the quarter compared with $0.03 per share last year. The decrease in earnings was primarily due to higher O&M and interest costs. Eversource parent and other companies lost $0.11 per share in the quarter compared with recurring earnings of $0.01 per share last year. The main driver of this decrease was higher interest expense. Overall, our second quarter earnings results were in line with our expectations, and we are reaffirming our 2024 EPS guidance range of $4.50 to $4.67 as well as our longer-term 5% to 7% EPS growth rate. Turning to our regulatory update on Slide 10, starting with Massachusetts, as you may recall, we filed our electric sector modernization plan with the DPU in January, which is a roadmap to address growth from electrification needs. We expect a decision on our plan later this month. As a reminder, our electric sector modernization plan calls for $600 million of distribution capital investments for interconnection of clean energy resources and resiliency initiatives through 2028. This $600 million is incremental to our $23.1 billion five-year capital forecast we announced back in February. Next, I'm pleased to report that in early June, the DPU approved four additional capital investment projects to enable the interconnection of large-scale distributed generation resources on our system. Combined with the first project approved in December of 2022, these projects represent approximately $1 billion of total capital investment with $600 million of distribution investment and approximately $400 million of transmission investment. This $1 billion of investment is included in our five-year capital plan. In May, as per our settlement agreement related to the acquisition of EGMA, we filed our first rate base reset for rates to be effective November 1st of 2024. This filing reconciles our rate base, which has increased from $770 million to approximately $1.7 billion as of the end of 2023. This rate base reset is subject to a cap on the revenue change. With the application of this revenue cap, the proposed revenue increases are $78.7 million this year and $67.5 million effective November 1st of 2025. Closing out the Massachusetts regulatory items, we were pleased to receive final approval from the Massachusetts Energy Facility Siting Board for the Cambridge substation project. This is a $1.6 billion investment, of which $1 billion of investment is included in our five-year capital plan and the remaining balance in 2029 and 2030. This project consists of a new underground substation that will address the growing electricity needs of the city of Cambridge and the surrounding area. Turning to New Hampshire. PSNH filed a rate case in early June to recover more than $765 million of investment since our last rate case in 2019. The filing requests a rate range of $182 million in base distribution rates. That will take effect in two steps. The first rate adjustment will go into rates today, reflecting an increase of $61 million, with the remainder to go into effect on August 1st of next year. Interim rates will provide enhanced cash flows to the company until we receive a final rate decision next year. The filing proposes to recover investments made to improve reliability and includes recovery of increased costs associated with storm response and vegetation management due to the more frequent and more intense storm events. On blue sky days, the company's reliability investments in New Hampshire have certainly paid off for our customers. For example, banks in large part to investments in distribution automation technology, the percentage of New Hampshire customers restored in non-storm events in less than five minutes has improved from 30% in 2018 to over 50% in 2023. In addition, the company has rigorously controlled O&M costs since our last rate case. We have also proposed to implement a four-year performance-based ratemaking plan, including our capital support mechanism that would adjust rates annually to be approved by the commission. This mechanism enhances cash flow supports resiliency investments, replacement of aging infrastructure and investments for the integration of customer distributed generation while maintaining the additional transparency that comes with PBR. We anticipate a final decision in this case in 2025. In Connecticut, discovery is underway under storm cost prudency review for $634 million. We are also preparing to file for storm prudency review later this year for storm restoration costs related to events in 2022 and early 2023. As Joe mentioned, we received a decision from PURA allowing us to continue supporting the electric vehicle charging program for customers under a constructive cost recovery framework that will enhance our cash flow position. I'll now provide an update on some of the items shown on Slide 11 that will enhance our FFO to debt ratio from 2023 to 2025. First, the 2024 annual rate adjustment in Connecticut became effective July 1 of this year, recovering approximately $900 million of several costs, including public benefits related costs. The July 1st rate adjustment is recovering under collections from 2023 and has reset rates to a level matching recurred cost that we expect in 2024. Public benefit costs include the cost of energy supply contracts with the Millstone and Seabrook nuclear power plants and uncollectible hardship costs. Second, with the closing of our sale of Sunrise Wind to Ørsted, we received net proceeds of $152 million that will be used to pay down debt. Third, the closing of our sale of Revolution and South Fork Wind to Global Infrastructure Partners, we anticipate receiving gross proceeds of approximately $1.1 billion, subject to adjustments for capital expenditures. These proceeds will also be used to pay down debt. As a reminder, there is no impact to our financing plan from these capital expenditure adjustments. In addition, the filings for distribution rate increases at PSNH and at EGMA will provide additional cash flow enhancement. And lastly, regarding our equity issuances, we have raised approximately $250 million of equity through our ATM program and issued approximately 819,000 treasury shares in the first half of this year. We continue to anticipate equity means of up to $1.3 billion over the next several years, as shown on Slide 12. We are making progress on our effort to sell Aquarion Water Company. I'm happy to report that we have recently launched the initial phase of this process. All of the above actions give us a clear roadmap for improvement of our FFO to debt ratio in 2024 and give us confidence in achieving our 14% to 15% FFO to debt target at S&P in 2025. In summary, as you can see on Slide 13, we have a proven track record of earnings and dividend growth, and we are confident that our robust $23.1 billion five-year capital forecast and our forecasted financing plan will enable us to drive our 5% to 7% EPS growth rate through 2028 based off of our 2023 recurring EPS of $4.34. I'll now turn the call back to Matt for Q&A.
Matthew Fallon:
Thank you. Jaquita, we are now ready for Q&A.
Operator:
Absolutely. . We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] The first question comes from the line of Shah Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners. Your line is now open.
Shah Pourreza:
Hi, guys. Good morning.
Joe Nolan:
Good morning, Shah. Good morning.
Shah Pourreza:
Good morning. Good morning. Joe, just maybe starting with Connecticut. I mean some constructive outcomes on the EV side. It sounds like the governor brought everyone together there. You're still kind of working through how to recover AMI. Are these like kind of green shoots in your view? Could we see some of that $500 million in capital you allocated elsewhere flow back into the state?
Joe Nolan:
Yes. Well, thank you. As you know, I had committed to folks that we will work diligently on our relationships in Connecticut. This is one of the areas of focus. As you know, we talked about our exit from wind. I think you're seeing that we've successfully executing that strategy, working on Connecticut, the sale of Aquarion. With regard to Connecticut, I wish I could say that I had a high degree of comfort right now, the jury is still out. We are grateful for Governor Lamont's leadership. I think he's done a good job, and we'll continue to work at that. You have my commitment that I will continue to work on that relationship so that we get a stable regulatory environment for us to make any investments down there, especially on AMI because I've got to tell you, what's taking place in the energy markets, AMI today is more important than ever that we have a system that allows customers to make informed decisions around their use of energy. I think it saw what took place in the PJM markets, and this is the type of technology that we're going to need to deploy in our states in order to allow our customers to make those decisions around spending their dollars on energy.
Shah Pourreza:
Got it. And sorry, Joe, just to PURA size, there's some noise there, like is 3 of the magic number? Or could we see the governor sort of expand to 5?
Joe Nolan:
Yes, sure. So the governor is now at 4, but it will go down to 3 in January. I think the governor is committed. I mean, certainly, any discussions I've had with him, he wants to strike a balance, and that's what he has told me that he wants to strike a balance in Connecticut. So yes, he may go to 5. I think he's going to continue to work at it. It's a work in progress to make sure that he brings stability and regulatory certainty to the state of Connecticut. But again, it's -- we're taking a wait-and-see approach.
Shah Pourreza:
Got it. Okay. Got it. And then just lastly, the Aquarion I mean, some data points around the Muni legislation this spring and trade press on the process. I guess any finer point you can put on the sale time line? Is it kind of your goal at this point to roll forward the plan next February without anything for Aquarion in it? Thanks, guys.
Joe Nolan:
Yes. Well, I got to tell you, first, in terms of the legislative process, and there was a lot of discussion on that. That one particular piece of legislation was designed to allow a bidder that in the absence of that legislation would not have been able to participate in our sale process. So it doesn't give them any more of a leg up than anybody else. We have a very robust group. So that was encouraging that this is a player that wanted to be there. They are a known entity in Connecticut. So the process will move forward. And we -- John, if you want to talk about with respect to timing?
John Moreira:
Sure, as I mentioned in my formal remarks, we recently have launched the process. Actually we're still working our way through finalizing some NDAs, In our forecasted financing plan, we assume that that transaction would wrap up by the -- by 2025 -- by the end of 2025. So that's our -- no change in that timeframe.
Shah Pourreza:
Okay, guys, excellent. Thank you so much. We will see you soon. Appreciate it.
Joe Nolan:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan. Your line is now open.
Jeremy Tonet:
Hi, good morning.
Joe Nolan:
Good morning, Jeremy.
John Moreira:
Hi, Jeremy.
Jeremy Tonet:
Hi. I just want to go back to the FFO to debt slide, if I could. I just want to make sure that I've seen that right, specifically on the under recoveries in the bridge. It looks like the $600 million is listed twice. So I just want to kind of clarify what's happening there.
John Moreira:
Well, the -- if you look at the table, Jeremy, the way this was designed is to highlight where it will end up in the FFO to debt calculation. So the $600 million is -- will be impacting the enhanced numerator of the math there and the $2.6 billion will offset debt. So that's -- that was the purpose of that table in there. So, sorry, if you add in any confusion. But that was the kind of the design.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. And…
John Moreira:
And keep in mind, Jeremy, just I think it's important to keep in mind that these numbers only reflect 2024 and 2025. Obviously, there are certain recoveries that will continue well beyond 2025.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. That's helpful there. And then I just want to go back to the offshore wind sale timing. Could you just update us there on, I guess, when everything would close? And I guess the time line shifted a little bit just wondering if there's anything to note there.
John Moreira:
Well, Jeremy, the time line has not shifted. We were guiding that this potentially will close late Q2 or early Q3. And what we've said is we've already closed Sunrise Wind. We did that on July 9, and we expect to close the GIP deal in this quarter.
Jeremy Tonet:
Okay, I understood. I will leave it there. Thank you.
Joe Nolan:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Nick Campanella with Barclays. Your line is now open.
Nick Campanella:
Hi. Good morning. Hope you're having a great summer.
Joe Nolan:
Good morning. Yes.
John Moreira:
Yes, thanks.
Nick Campanella:
Hi. Yes. So I just wanted to -- just to follow up on Jeremy's question on the offshore wind. Just can you just maybe give us a state of the construction status on Revolution, where you stand on those costs and capital expenditures? And then just how much does Eversource actually incur an offshore wind CapEx for this year before you sell the assets to GIP? Thank you.
John Moreira:
Well, I would say, the construction activity is progressing very, very well. As of a week ago, when we connected with Ørsted, the monopiles or the foundations, they're probably at 50% installed, which is a remarkable task knowing that we had the time of year restrictions. From a capital deployment standpoint, Jeremy, obviously, that is sensitive information as you -- I'm sorry, Nick, as you know, we haven't really disclosed that.
Nick Campanella:
Okay, no problem.
Joe Nolan:
…but knowing that -- that the sale process is imminent. It may happen in the third quarter. So you'll have line of sight.
Nick Campanella:
And you guys still feel good about that underlying IRR that you have to kind of deliver to GIP as per the contract?
John Moreira:
Yes. Yes, we do. I mean it's -- as I just stated, Nick, the construction activity is going very well, thus far.
Nick Campanella:
I appreciate that. Thank you. I appreciate it. And Jeremy and I are friends, so that's totally okay. So just on storm cost recovery, the $200 million that you have in the FFO to debt enhancements, I know you're in the discovery phase right now, and there's been some shift in that proceeding over the last year. But just mechanically, do you have to file a rate case to get that cash recovery ultimately back and get that regulatory asset wind down? Or what's the rate case outlook in Connecticut for you currently? Just maybe you can walk us through that. Thank you.
John Moreira:
Yes, sure. Sure. So let me start with the $200 million, Nick. The $200 million it does not reflect any recovery of Connecticut storms, okay? The $200 million is more -- is all related to Mass and New Hampshire. And keep in mind, this is only two-year recovery in both of those jurisdictions, the recovery period is five years. As it pertains to $634 million request that we have in front of PURA from a prudency review. As the schedule currently is laid out, which we're hoping to have a bit more of an acceleration there will take us through September-ish timeframe of 2025. So that really would align with the expectation of potentially we could file a rate case around that time. The historical process is you do the prudence in Connecticut, you do the prudency review and then you file a rate case and then the -- once the rate case has been buttoned up, and those -- that new rate goes into effect, that's when we would roll in the storm costs.
Nick Campanella:
That's super helpful. I appreciate the clarification, and thanks for the time.
John Moreira:
Thanks, Nick.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research. Your line is now open.
Joe Nolan :
Good morning, Steve.
John Moreira:
Good morning.
Steve Fleishman:
Hi, good morning. Thank you. Just to kind of maybe close the loop on a prior question. Just whatever the latest cost estimate on Revolution is that still a good cost estimate?
John Moreira:
As of right now, I mean, we always continue to work with Ørsted on further updates. But as of right now, yes.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. And then on -- just on the equity plan, so back at the beginning of the year, I think that was before you had the go-ahead on Sunrise and I think not only did you get this $230 million, but you avoided potential breakage costs. If I recall, when you kind of came up with the current plan?
John Moreira:
That's correct. That's correct, Steve.
Steve Fleishman:
And so kind of given that is now done and I just -- I guess, maybe like to get more color on how that plays into the up to $1.3 billion and obviously, you still have other things in flux. But maybe just a little more color since we now have that specific update.
John Moreira:
Sure. Sure, sure. So I think you just nailed the answer to that question. We do have a lot of things in flux. Our forecast -- our financing forecast when we pulled it together and disseminate it as part of our guidance in February, had a lot of puts and takes. I had a lot of assumptions and we're still navigating our way through that. So I think it's a bit too early to give further guidance on our equity needs. Where we are today, as we stand here, $1.3 billion is the right number until certain things reach closure.
Steve Fleishman:
And can you just remind me the $1.3 billion, like what the timeframe was for that? Was that over the whole four-year period or...
John Moreira:
What was the guidance that we've said over the next several years.
Steve Fleishman:
Several years. Okay. And yes, I think that's it for now. Thank you.
John Moreira:
Thank you, Steve.
Joe Nolan:
Thank you, Steve.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.
Joe Nolan:
Good morning, David.
John Moreira:
Good morning.
David Arcaro:
Good morning. Good morning. Hi, thanks so much for taking my questions. I wanted to circle back on the FFO to debt enhancement slide. I was just wondering if -- like, have there been any changes in the underlying enhancements there? Or is this mostly just pulling in some of the known items, breaking them out more specifically here? Or has anything changed to the upside or downside?
John Moreira:
Yes. These are the major, I would say, headlines, right? However, things always change -- one of the items that's not included in the slide that has materially developed is some of the tax benefits that we've been able to harvest has generated some cash refunds. So that -- the 2024 alone we had an inflow of tax refunds of about $120 million.
David Arcaro:
So and that's not…
John Moreira:
And the other thing that's noted that has not been quantified. But in my formal remarks, I did give you a lot of intel is the rate increases. We have EGMA going in with -- with a very sizable increase to start recovering the significant level of investments that we've made to that utility. And then we have the normal PBR rate mechanisms kicking in. And just yesterday, we got the approval to increase rates at PSNH, $61 million of interim rates. And within the next 12 months, we hope to have the final decision with another rate change effective August 1st of 2025. So that quantification would be further upside to this table that's shown, David.
David Arcaro:
Great. That's helpful color. Thanks. And the $120 million that's not included in here currently, so that would be an upside.
John Moreira:
Correct. That would enhance the numerator and enhance our operating cash flows.
David Arcaro:
Okay. Awesome. Thanks for that. And then I was just wondering on EGMA, it's -- any issues that you would anticipate with this rate base step-up. It's a pretty big increase, obviously, given all the investment that you've made in that system. Just wondering what your expectations would be without challenging this case might be? And then subsequent to the extent you hit the cap, subsequent increases?
John Moreira:
Yes, we do expect to hit the cap. And I would say what gives us comfort is the fact that this was all assumed as part of our settlement agreement when we acquired the company. We worked through with the regulators, the key stakeholders as to what that -- the investments that, that entity needed, and that's why we needed this rate base roll in. This is the first of two rate-based roll-ins that will kick in. The first one is we -- as I just announced on the call this morning, kicks in November 1st of this year and then the second one will kick in November 1st of 2027.
David Arcaro:
Okay, great. Thanks so much. Appreciate it.
John Moreira:
Thanks, David.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Jefferies. Your line is now open.
Joe Nolan:
Julien, welcome back.
John Moreira:
Welcome back, the prodigal son. What a pleasant surprise.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Thank you guys very much. I appreciate it. It's nice to chat with you guys again. It's -- look, let me follow up on a couple of the things have been flagged here speaking of returns here. How do you think about the green shoots in Connecticut? I want to talk a little bit more on that thesis for a quick second. I suppose, of the Yankee Gas filing at some point here, maybe late this year in December. How do you think about that foreshadowing any elements of that, call it, 4Q 2025 CL&P case? Anything that you'd be watching? Any items there? Again, I get it electric versus gas, but curious on that front. And then related, any items that you'd be watching on the PBR front, right, given that that's been kicked out here a little bit presumably a year or so. How do you think about the items that you'd be looking there for those presumed green shoots as well? So, thank you guys very much. Nice to chat.
Joe Nolan:
Yes. Well, listen, I just will tell you that we have been spending a lot of time, significant outreach to over 100 communities that we serve there. We spent a lot of time down there. We continue to work it. I think it's important, and I think folks are beginning to understand just the type of impact Eversource has in Connecticut. I mean we employ over 5,000 people in that state, pay over $300 million in taxes. And our reliability numbers are extraordinary. When we first did that merger, our months between interruptions was in 12, now we're over 24 months between interruptions. We're probably best-in-class down there in terms of reliability. So I feel very good about that. But I wish I could tell you with certainty that everything is sanitary, but it's not. We are taking a wait-and-see approach on it, but I will commit to you that my efforts as we have exited the wind business, it's not only down to my focus is Connecticut. I spent a lot of time. I was there last week, had an opportunity to spend some time with key decision makers. I will continue to do that until such time as those relationships improve and that we can get some regulatory certainty on behalf of our customers and also our investors.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Excellent. All right. Fair enough. I hear you on that one. And then maybe related here, how do you think about just the amortization period, to the extent which you get that 600 change in Connecticut here, presumably in the next rate case, how do you think about the time period that, that recovery would entail? Again, I'm thinking with the FFO to debt to head on as you roll in out of that case.
John Moreira:
Sure. So the historical amortization period in Connecticut has been six years.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Okay. So about $100 million a year of uplift after you get that approved…
John Moreira:
Correct. As I mentioned in my formal remarks, we're also preparing to file our second prudency request for incremental storms that we've incurred. That's not part of the 634. So that -- we hope to goes in closing later this year.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Exactly. And presumably, that would be also trued up in the next case such that, that would be incremental for kind of a 2026 run rate?
John Moreira:
That is correct.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Okay, excellent. Thank you. Hey, see you guys soon, all right?
John Moreira:
Yeah, hope so. Thank you.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
See you.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Paul Patterson with Glenrock. Your line is now open.
Joe Nolan:
Good morning, Paul.
Paul Patterson:
Good morning. How are you?
John Moreira:
Great.
Paul Patterson:
I wanted to follow up on the particle on Julien's question on Connecticut. The delay in the PBR case, what do you attribute that to? Is that just simply the complexity of the case? Or is there something else we should be thinking about?
John Moreira:
Yes. I think the -- and we're glad that it did get pushed out -- it allows -- and we've been pushing for this. It allows for us to bring in key stakeholders and collaborate with these key stakeholders in Connecticut to reach a very constructive PBR structure. We are very familiar with the PBR, what we have in Massachusetts. And recently, as I mentioned on the -- in my formal remarks, we're looking to introduce the same type of structure in New Hampshire.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. And then with respect to the transmission and everything, there's -- as you know, at FERC, the White House, et cetera, there's a lot of talk about the implementation of agreed enhancing technologies and a lot of law makers from New England what have you seen to be pushing for this as well, DLR, what have you. And I'm just sort of wondering how you think about that -- those technologies, I guess, and what kind of opportunities you see there or issues or any color that you might give with respect to that, given your build-out and everything that you're looking at doing?
Joe Nolan:
Sure. I mean we've been active participants in these forums. And I think as you know the one attractive piece of Eversource is that over 40% of our business is FERC related and transmission. So we're very good at it. I think we probably have the best engineering talent in the industry and any type of technology or deployment of technology or opportunities. I can promise you that Eversource will be at the forefront of them.
Paul Patterson:
Okay, But you don't see. Okay. Okay. I appreciate it. Thanks so much. Rest of my questions been answered. Thank you.
Joe Nolan:
Thank you. Thanks, Paul.
Operator:
Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Anthony Crowdell with Mizuho. Your line is now open.
Joe Nolan:
Good morning, Anthony.
Anthony Crowdell:
Hi, good morning, Joe. Good morning, John. Good. I feel like the prodigal son older brother that I got nothing. I guess just quickly apologize so just keep going back to Slide 11 and then just a clarification. Is the right way to look at this the 600, the top 4 plus 2, you're saying goes into numerator on FFO and what's on the bottom below that green line or the green table there, the 2.6 goes on the denominator?
John Moreira:
Correct, which would be permanent because we offload our debt with that. And then on the numerator side, once again, as I previously mentioned, those numbers only reflect cash inflows to 2024 and 2025. Obviously, these deferrals will continue beyond that period.
Anthony Crowdell:
Great. That's all I had. Thanks for taking my questions.
Joe Nolan:
Thank you.
John Moreira:
Thanks, Anthony.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Travis Miller with Morningstar. Your line is now open.
Joe Nolan:
Hi, Travis.
John Moreira:
Hi, Travis.
Travis Miller:
Hi, there. Yes I'm just going to go one quick clarification here on Slide 11 again to the $200 million for the storm cost recovery that -- that primarily is the New Hampshire number, right? Or is it something else?
John Moreira:
New Hampshire. No, it's both Mass.
Travis Miller:
Okay, that's being debated. That's part of the prudency review right now.
John Moreira:
No. Those -- the prudency review there's multiple things happening in Mass. So we do have a prudency review happening in Mass. These are what -- these costs have already been approved in rates -- so any -- for Massachusetts. The one in New Hampshire yes, a good chunk of that we filed for $240 million that's going through the prudency review there. That will kick in right around the time that permanent rates goes into effect, which will be in 2025. So there is a piece of that in here. And as I mentioned, both Massachusetts and New Hampshire has a five-year recovery window.
Travis Miller:
Got it. Okay. So that kind of goes into that bucket of the filed rate increases to come?
John Moreira:
Only, right..
Travis Miller:
Correct. Yes. Okay. Okay. Very good. And then just high level, the New Hampshire legislation the IDP, what's your thought on how that changes your planning? How that might enhance growth CapEx, give us some high-level thoughts on how that could benefit either your financing plan or your CapEx grow over the next five-plus years?
Joe Nolan:
Yes. We were very pleased. I mean, that legislation goes hand in glove with our entire operation. I mean, the integrated planning and the type of clarity that's needed as we begin to advance our investments. I think that was really a very, very positive step for us, and it's something that -- it's what we're all about. We're about collaboration. And that's what's still refreshing there in New Hampshire as well as Massachusetts around collaboration that we understand what's important to those administrations, and that's what we're delivering on.
Travis Miller:
Okay, great. I appreciate the thoughts.
John Moreira:
As I mentioned, Travis, our New Hampshire customers have experienced the benefit from those investments that we've made.
Travis Miller:
Sure, sure. Okay, thank you.
John Moreira:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. The final question comes from the line of Ryan Levine with Citi. Your line is now open.
Joe Nolan:
Good morning, Ryan. They must have saved the best for wasp.
Ryan Levine:
Thank you. Just two quick clarifying questions. In terms of the GIP deal, in your comments, should we assume that there's no earn out or callback that will be triggered based on the cost estimates that you laid out? And then in terms of the free cash flow metrics, a lot of disclosure talks about gross proceeds. Is there any material adjustments that we should be looking at to get to a net number that would actually reflect the actual FFO to debt metrics?
John Moreira:
Yes. No, as I mentioned in my formal remarks, Ryan, as we saw with the Sunrise we have to reconcile to the CapEx that was embedded in the original purchase price. But that in and of itself will not have any impact on our financing plan. We spend less than what we thought the purchase price comes down. We spend more than what we had agreed to the purchase price increases. So really, no impact whatsoever. And as it relates to the revolution as we've been saying right along, there is a potential contingency that we would be subject to from a construction standpoint that we have to be mindful. But as I mentioned, so far, the construction activity has gone pretty well.
Ryan Levine:
Okay. And then in terms of the gross versus net receipt disclosure in your FFO to debt targets for the next three years or three-year window there, is there any material adjustment to the gross proceeds that could be reflected?
John Moreira:
Not as of right now. We don't see that. No. No, no, nothing.
Ryan Levine:
Okay.
John Moreira:
Because once we close the transaction, the funding obligation flips to GIP.
Ryan Levine:
Okay. So there's no tax, taxes or anything along those lines. Appreciate it.
John Moreira:
Okay.
Joe Nolan:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. There are no additional questions waiting at this time. So, I would now like to pass the conference back over to Matthew for closing remarks.
Matthew Fallon:
Yes. Thank you, everybody, for joining us this morning, and I know you had a lot of opportunities for the earnings call, and I'm grateful you join the Eversource earnings call, and I hope you all get a chance to recharge the batteries, and I get a chance to see all of you at EEI in the fall. Have a great day.
Operator:
That concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.
Operator:
Good morning, and thank you for attending the Eversource Energy Q1 2024 Earnings Call. My name is Elissa, and I will be your moderator. [Operator Instructions]
I would now like to pass the call to our host, Matt Fallon, Eversource Energy's Director for Investor Relations. Matt, please go ahead.
Matthew P. Fallon:
Good morning, and thank you for joining us. I am Matt Fallon, Eversource Energy's Director for Investor Relations. During this call, we'll be referencing slides that we posted yesterday on our website.
As you can see on Slide 1, some of the statements made during this investor call may be forward-looking. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risk and uncertainty, which may cause the actual results to differ materially from forecasts and projections. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any of these statements. Additional information about the various factors that may cause actual results to differ and our explanation of non-GAAP measures and how they reconcile to GAAP results is contained within our news release, the slides we posted last night and in our most recent 10-K. Speaking today will be Joe Nolan, our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and John Moreira, our Executive Vice President, CFO and Treasurer. Also joining us today is Jay Buth, our Vice President and Controller. I will now turn the call over to Joe.
Joseph Nolan:
Thank you, Matt, and thank you all for joining us on the call this morning. Let me begin with an update on the sale of our offshore wind business. I am pleased to report that we are on track to close the sale of the 3 projects over the coming months. We are progressing well on the approvals necessary to close these transactions, as shown on Slide 3. We have filed all regulatory approvals with the New York Public Service Commission and FERC for the sale of South Fork Wind and Revolution Wind to Global Infrastructure Partners. And we recently executed the purchase and sale agreement for Sunrise Wind with Orsted.
For Sunrise Wind, we have also filed applications for regulatory approvals with the New York Public Service Commission and FERC. We anticipate these approvals will take about 90 days. On the construction front, I can't tell you how excited and proud I was of my Eversource colleagues as I stood alongside New York Governor Hochul to flip the switch to energize South Fork Wind in March. We will certainly capitalize on lessons learned from South Fork, a first-of-its-kind project here in the United States. The same construction processes will be used for the Revolution Wind project where onshore and offshore construction is underway. Now that our offshore wind risk is largely behind us, we are very excited about the future of Eversource delivering safe and reliable electric, natural gas and water service to our 4.4 million customers. Turning to Slide 4. Eversource is moving forward as a pure-play regulated pipes and wires utility business, doing what we do best, delivering clean energy safely and reliably to our customers every day. When we are doing what we do best, our customers are the direct beneficiaries. A good example of this came in early April when a late winter storm caused significant damage across the Northeast. Through our investments in technology, including smart switches and other reliability innovations, we were able to restore 85,000 customers in New Hampshire within 5 minutes, greatly reducing the impact of the storm to many customers in that area. This amazing response received numerous accolades from customers and personal acknowledgment from Governor Sununu. We take tremendous pride in our emergency response organization in our ability to stand up our emergency response teams for timely restoration. Eversource teams from all 3 states responded to the storm damage in New Hampshire, minimizing customer outage time. Our resiliency investments help to minimize customer outage impacts. Our preparation enables us to hit the ground running in front of potential severe weather events in our emergency response plan, supports scalable and efficient restoration for those customers who are impacted. And we work tirelessly to communicate that timely recovery of storm costs is critical to support these efforts. Turning to the Clean Energy Future. As you can see on Slide 5, the states we serve have very aggressive greenhouse gas reduction goals. Both the transportation sector and residential and commercial heating sectors are the largest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions. Although the region has acted by reducing carbon emissions from power generation, we have a long way to go on heating and transportation to achieve the state's targets by 2050. To meet these targets, we project that average household electric demand will double in the summer and more than triple in the winter. That's why it's critical that we all work collaboratively and get started today on making achievement of these targets a reality. Moving to Slide 6. Achievement of Massachusetts' decarbonization goals are being addressed in part through the Electric Sector Modernization Plans, or ESMP. This is the most comprehensive clean energy plan in the nation with planning processes and requirements that will provide the pathway for the state to achieve its clean energy objectives. The Eversource ESMP is a product of our system planning process, incorporating the state's assumptions for projected demand growth from electric vehicles and electric heating. To develop our ESMP, we have analyzed expected electric growth down to the circuit level to identify grid investments needed over the next 5 years and beyond. These infrastructure investments will convert our distribution grid into the platform for the clean energy transition. It will increase electrification capacity by 180% and will allow for the adoption of 2.5 million electric vehicles, 1 million heat pumps and 5.8 gigawatts of solar generation, thereby making Massachusetts a leader in delivering clean energy to its homes and businesses. In New Hampshire, we are focused on a number of regulatory initiatives and are evaluating ways to advance clean energy initiatives such as large-scale utility-owned solar development. For example, New Hampshire state legislators are working on a bill that would institute structural reforms to New Hampshire's Energy Facility Site Evaluation Committee or the SEC, reducing the size of the SEC from 9 members to 5 and eliminating unnecessary process to improve efficiency and to lead to more consistent outcomes. In turn, this will lead to an accelerated citing and permitting process for these clean energy initiatives. Turning to Connecticut. State policy leaders have a vision of solar expansion, electric vehicle adoption and future renewable purchase power agreements as part of its clean energy transition. We are a strong supporter of these efforts to enable the clean energy future for our customers, and we certainly are looking to partner with the state collaboratively and productively to achieve this important vision for our customers. While we continue to work diligently to support state policy leaders on thoughtful and reasonable policies aimed at increased adoption of clean energy technologies and the reduction of carbon emissions, we have serious concerns with the lack of alignment between state policy and regulatory decisions implementing that policy. As it stands, regulatory policies in Connecticut discourage investment and utility innovation as well as our participation in a wide range of clean energy initiatives that rely on our balance sheet, in our capital resources. Upfront program funding by the utilities does not work where cost recovery is continually deferred and delayed into the future on certain terms. Without recognition that our funding sources rely on a secure and predictable cost recovery path, we cannot move forward to put additional capital resources on the table. We are encouraged by PURA's decision last month to provide timely reimbursement of deferred public policy costs through the company's electric annual rate adjustment mechanism. Decisions that adhere to law and legislative policy are critical to assure a constructive regulatory environment in Connecticut and to make the vision of a clean energy future a reality for our customers. Looking forward to the future, we remain committed to our extensive outreach plan across Connecticut, furthering our efforts to engage collaboratively and productively with Connecticut's leadership. Lastly, I want to thank my Eversource colleagues for their unwavering commitment and dedication to our customers. I have the utmost confidence in our team to deliver safe and reliable energy service to our customers with daily progress toward a clean energy future. I will now turn the call over to John Moreira to walk through our financial results.
John Moreira:
Thank you, Joe, and good morning, everyone. This morning, I will discuss our first quarter financial results, give you a regulatory update and cover drivers for our cash flow enhancement.
I'll start with the first quarter results on Slide 7. Our GAAP and recurring earnings for the quarter were $1.49 per share compared with GAAP and recurring earnings of $1.41 per share last year. Breaking down the first quarter earnings results of the $1.49 per share into segments, our Electric Transmission earned $0.50 per share compared with earnings of $0.45 share in 2023. Improved results were driven by our continued investments in our transmission system to address capacity growth for customers and connect clean energy resources to the region. Our Electric Distribution earnings were $0.48 per share compared with earnings of $0.47 per share in 2023. Higher revenues primarily due to a base distribution rate increase at NSTAR Electric were partially offset by higher operating expense, higher interest expense and increased property taxes and depreciation. Our Natural Gas Distribution business earned $0.54 per share compared with $0.49 per share in 2023. Natural Gas Distribution earnings increased due to higher revenues from capital cost recovery mechanisms, a base rate increase at NSTAR Gas and lower operating expenses. Our Water Distribution segment contributed $0.01 per share compared with flat earnings in 2023. Eversource Parent & Other Company earnings were a loss of $0.04 per share compared to breakeven results in 2023. The lower results were due primarily to higher interest expense and the absence of a net benefit in the first quarter of last year from the liquidation of a renewable energy fund. Overall, our first quarter earnings were in line with our expectations, and we are reiterating our 2024 EPS guidance of $4.50 to $4.67 per share as well as our longer-term 5% to 7% EPS growth rate. Turning to regulatory items on Slide 8. Starting with Massachusetts, we filed our Electric Sector Modernization Plan with the Massachusetts Department of Public Utility in January. And we expect to have a decision on our plan in the August timeframe. Our ESMP calls for an incremental $600 million capital investments for interconnection of solar resources through 2028. As a reminder, this $600 million is incremental to our $23.1 billion capital investment forecast we announced back in February. In New Hampshire, we are very busy on the regulatory front. In March, we submitted our documentation for a prudence review of $232 million of storm costs related to storm events from August 2022 through March of 2023. We anticipate that review will be completed later this year. In addition, we anticipate filing a rate review in New Hampshire this summer, with temporary rate relief going into effect 90 days after the filing. Closing out the regulatory update is Connecticut, where we received the final decision on our annual rate adjustment mechanism 2 weeks ago, for new rates to become effective July 1 of this year. The major drivers of the $873 million increase are recoveries of purchase power contracts and protected hardship uncollectible accounts, both of which are costs required by law. These under-collected costs in Connecticut, which were approximately $400 million in 2023, contributed significantly to a reduction in our 2023 FFO to debt ratio. This rate impact will be significantly offset by lower energy supply costs that will also go into effect July 1 of this year. We appreciate PURA's decision to provide timely reimbursement to the company of these state policy costs as required by law, reducing the pressure on our balance sheet to finance these costs for a longer time period. Timely recovery of these costs reduces the total amount that customers will pay through avoidance of carrying charges on these balances. In March, we resubmitted our request for a prudence review of approximately $635 million of Connecticut storm costs relating to weather events that occurred from 2018 through 2021. The vast majority of these costs represent payments to outside line and tree crews to assist in the restoration, resulting from 24 significant storm events during that period. We are currently in the discovery phase of the proceeding. As a reminder, recovery of these costs will coincide with new distribution rates following our next general distribution rate proceeding. In early April, following the Superior Court decision on our Aquarion rate case, we filed for a review of that decision by the Appellate Court along with a request to transfer the appeal directly to the Connecticut Supreme Court. We are requesting that the Connecticut Supreme Court hear this case due to the critical legal issues raised by the Aquarion rate decision. Without proper resolution of these issues, there will be a negative impact on utility investment and customers long term. As Joe mentioned, we are committed to our extensive and ongoing outreach efforts that have been pivotal to educating key leaders and communities on the necessity for stable regulatory policies. We are also demonstrating our commitment to support the state's policy leaders who seek to move the state forward with thoughtful and reasonable policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions and achieving increased adoption of clean energy resources. A successful path to a clean energy future will require a substantial ramp-up in planned proactive distribution infrastructure investment rather than piecemeal approach as well as sound public policies and adherence to legal principles to enable that investment. However, the existing gap between the state's vision of a transition to a clean energy future and the regulatory framework discouraging investment is an obstacle for Connecticut's progress on climate change, the clean energy transition and even core service goals. As a result, we have taken a hard look at our capital deployment priorities and are implementing necessary cuts to our Connecticut investment levels in 2024 and over the next 5 years. In 2024, we are reducing our capital expenditures by nearly $100 million. And we have notified PURA of our unwillingness to put capital at risk in relation to advanced meter infrastructure and electric vehicle programs. In total, we are expecting to reduce capital investment in Connecticut by $500 million over the next 5 years. Until we see Connecticut's regulatory decisions come back into alignment with law and state policy, our decisions on the deployment of our valuable capital resources have to be based on our current experience with regulatory outcomes for utility investment. With that, I do want to emphasize that we are confirming our 5-year capital expenditure forecast of $23.1 billion across all business units. Substantial, consistently emerging infrastructure needs across our system provide ample opportunity for capital deployment in lieu of using those valuable resources in Connecticut. I will now cover a number of drivers that are expected to enhance our FFO-to-debt ratio from 2023 to 2025. As you can see on Slide 9, the under-collection of 2023 deferred state policy costs, which will now be recovered as a result of the 2024 annual rate adjustment decision in Connecticut as well as other under-recoveries of regulatory deferrals across all states of approximately $200 million, contributed to the lower FFO to debt that we experienced in 2023. We expect other enhancements in 2024 and 2025 that include the sale of South Fork and Revolution Wind assets to GIP. Upon closing of the sale to GIP, we anticipate receiving approximately $1.1 billion of cash proceeds from this transaction. In addition to the GIP sale proceeds, we anticipate utilizing our tax equity investment in South Fork Wind, which we expect will bring around $500 million of cash over the next 24 months. Lastly, collection of storm costs in Massachusetts and New Hampshire, planned rate increases at our utilities, the sale of our Sunrise Wind project to Orsted, equity issuances and cash flows from a potential sale of our water business will drive the enhancement of 2023 FFO to debt to 14% to 15% targeted by 2025. Moving on to our equity issuances. In the first quarter of 2024, we raised approximately $75 million through our existing ATM program. And we issued 550,000 treasury shares. We continue to anticipate our equity needs to be up to $1.3 billion over the next several years. Also, as we announced in February, we are undertaking a review of our Water Distribution business. Proceeds from a successful sale are assumed in our long-term financing plan, reducing the level of equity that would otherwise be needed. We continue to prepare materials needed to launch the first phase of this process. Closing out on Slide 10, as I mentioned earlier, our $23.1 billion 5-year capital forecast and our forecasted financing plan drive our 5% to 7% EPS growth rate through 2028 based off of our 2023 recurring EPS of $4.34 per share. I'll now turn the call back to Matt for Q&A.
Matthew P. Fallon:
Thank you, John. Elissa, we are now ready for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from the line of Shahriar Pourreza with Guggenheim.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Joe, I guess what -- just firstly, what CapEx are you guys actually cutting in Connecticut? Where are you kind of redeploying? And is that redeployment actually accretive just given the cost of capital differences?
Joseph Nolan:
Thank you, Shahriar. Over the past decade, we've spent a significant amount of money on electric reliability for our Connecticut customers. Our best-in-class engineering has moved months between interruptions from 10 months to nearly 2 years. So clearly, our investments have paid huge dividends for our Connecticut customers. However, the regulatory decisions over the past few years are misaligned with the law and the state policy. And without a secure and predictable cost recovery path, we cannot continue to put additional capital resources on the table. So our investment objectives in Connecticut have been centered around safety and reliability.
As you'd expect, we will not reduce our safety spending. Therefore, the reduction will likely come from reliability areas. As John has mentioned, we have ample opportunities for capital deployment on our system. So we are -- we feel very, very good about that. And yes, it would be accretive.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Got it. And Joe, can you cut more if need be?
Joseph Nolan:
Well, we are going to be very thoughtful and deliberate about it. Obviously, we've had a great track record down there. I will tell you that the reliability numbers in that state are best-in-class. I don't think you'll find it. You'll find it really anywhere else around the country. So I'm very proud of that. But if we continue to see this negative regulatory environment, we're going to have to look at everything.
John Moreira:
I would also add, Shahriar, that as a reminder, we do have a resiliency program in place, which we get timely recovery of up to $300 million of distribution investments at CL&P, which has been very, very critical for us to achieve this performance level that Joe just mentioned.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Got it. And then -- and maybe just a quick one for John. John, just the up to $1.3 billion of equity is obviously still in plan. And obviously, that level is going to be dictated by the water sale outcome. I guess how are you thinking about the means of issuances? Are you thinking more in systematic terms or kind of prefunding spending and the balance sheet ahead of time, so ATMs versus maybe rip the bandage off block?
John Moreira:
Our view, and that will continue to be our position, is to be opportunistic in exploring and utilizing our ATM program to accomplish that. As I've said time and time again, an ATM program gives us tremendous flexibility. And we were very successful in executing at least through month $75 million. We've done quite a bit more over the past couple of weeks.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Carly Davenport with Goldman Sachs.
Carly Davenport:
I wanted to just start on the FFO to debt walk, thanks for the detail there. I guess, first, could you just remind us of the cadence of the 2023 under-recoveries hitting the cash flow statement this year? And then how should we just think about -- as we think about the other drivers that you'd identified, sort of the split between the impacts between the $1.8 billion and those other drivers?
John Moreira:
Sure. So the under-recovery, as highlighted on Slide 9, Carly, for 2023 across all of the utilities with the biggest impact being CL&P and Connecticut, was approximately $600 million. So if you were to normalize, where we landed at the end of 2023 from an FFO to debt using -- at Moody's was approximately 9%. So that would drive that up as we've indicated on the slide about 200 basis points.
So with the favorable order that we received a couple of weeks ago on the annual rate adjustment mechanism, we feel good that both that cash plus more related to 2024 costs will start to come in the door effective July 1 through April 30 of next year, so a 10-month recovery which is very, very helpful to us. And then the other items, what we've tried to do is to highlight where we -- as it relates to our offshore win, what we have already identified and have disclosed to you all, that would significantly move us up closer to the 14% to 15% range by the end of 2025, but certainly building up towards that range towards the -- towards that time period.
Carly Davenport:
Got it. Okay. Great. And then maybe just on the Massachusetts ESMP process. What are sort of the next milestones for us to look out for their? And then just more broadly, how do you think about opportunities for the other states that you serve to adopt sort of similar frameworks?
John Moreira:
Sure. So I'll start with Massachusetts. So hearings on that docket just basically concluded. So now we get into the briefs and reply briefs. But one thing I want to point out to, based on the legislation that was passed a couple of years ago, the Clean Energy legislation, the DPU does have to render a decision by that August timeframe that I stated in my formal remarks.
So as we move forward, the $600 million that I highlighted in my formal remarks is really what will materialize if we do get a favorable approval from the DPU that will materialize within our forecast period, but there's further investments that will be needed beyond our current forecast period that we've also have highlighted in our filing. So obviously, Massachusetts continues to be very proactive in identifying opportunities to really make sure that the goals that the state has established is realistically and proactively accomplished. In Connecticut, as Joe mentioned, we would love to support their Clean Energy strategy. But as we have both indicated in our formal remarks, it will require collaboration and cooperation by us -- by the utilities in Connecticut as well as the authority. And then lastly, New Hampshire, as we mentioned, we are having discussions with the state on utility-owned solar. We will likely be proposing an investment opportunity in the months to come. As you -- as I mentioned in my formal remarks, we do plan to file for a rate review this summer.
Joseph Nolan:
In all of that solar investment, just to keep in mind would be regulated investment -- solar investment, utility-owned, very similar to the model that we have here in Massachusetts, Carly.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Nick Campanella with Barclays.
Nicholas Campanella:
So just kind of sticking with Connecticut here and just the fact that you're cutting investment there, but you also had this rate order -- this outcome on Aquarion, just how do you kind of see that kind of affecting the process that you're running there to potentially monetize the asset?
And just maybe you can kind of update us on that process, your confidence level that whatever happens there, there wouldn't be additional equity kind of coming into the plan that you outlined today?
John Moreira:
Well, the appeal process, obviously, we would love to have a positive data point. But the appeal process will continue to make its way. You're probably looking at, at least a year in the making, but we are continuing to move forward with launching Phase 1 of the process relatively soon. And then, we'll make the decision at that point.
Nicholas Campanella:
Okay. So still moving ahead, it seems. I appreciate that. I guess just a follow-up on Carly's question just around the FFO to debt, just -- the South Fork's tax equity investment would probably be, I would guess, more onetime in nature to the, I guess, cash flow improvement. But just -- I just wanted to kind of confirm like net of these kind of one-time items, you still see this path getting you to 14% to 15%.
And what's really kind of driving that net of the one-time issues?
John Moreira:
Yes. No, we certainly do, Nick, the tax equity. We actually think, as I stated, 24 months. That's probably a bit conservative. I think that will probably lead into 2026. We do have other tax benefits that we want to utilize for us before we tap into those ITCs. So that can be elongated a bit, which is great.
And then longer term, yes, that does fall off the cliff. But we have other items that will certainly kick in. We are sitting on a pretty large deferred storm balance. So I see those costs coming in, in potentially '26, certainly '27 and beyond to really maintain that high level of FFO to debt.
Nicholas Campanella:
And then just one last one for me just on Sunrise. I know that you're not giving the price, but -- last quarter, there was negative book value. I don't believe that the queue is out, but is that still the case or something that you can kind of talk about? Or do we have to wait for the sale agreement to be public for you to revise that?
John Moreira:
It does. And that's really -- we have to follow the accounting rules, and the accounting rules basically says that if you have a contingent gain, you have to wait to get your cash, right? So that, therefore, the transaction has to close. So where probably, I would say you should expect a true-up of those balances to occur likely in the third quarter of this year.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan.
Jeremy Tonet:
Maybe just continuing with Slide 10 here real quick. Thanks for all the color provided. Just want to confirm the major drivers, everything on the right hand of that slide, that's all treated as FFO and not debt reduction when you talk about the walk from -- into 14% to 15%.
John Moreira:
Yes. No, it's a mixed bag. So obviously, what's more critical is that we have the cash coming in, right, which will displace debt and obviously enhance our operating cash flows.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. And so maybe just pivoting towards Aquarion here in just a little bit more detail, I guess, on where you guys are in the process right now and how you -- what you prioritize here, pace of transaction versus value that you can achieve or just any other thoughts on the parameters of how you see this process unfolding.
John Moreira:
Sure. I would frame it this way. It's not about a mad dash to the finish line. It's about a thoughtful process that we will run for the greatest value that we possibly can harvest. So that's what's important to us, is obtaining the greatest maximum value we possibly can. So if its transactions takes a bit longer, we are fine with that. The rating agencies are fully aware of the timeframe that we've mapped out with them. And obviously, they are comfortable with that.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. And then just to confirm real quick here, the sales proceeds are going to be helping FFO in this illustration here. I just want to make sure I was straight on that.
John Moreira:
Absolutely, absolutely because it displaces debt.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research.
Steven Fleishman:
Just maybe tie up one more question on Aquarion on the -- you mentioned appealing to the Supreme Court. Is there like a timeline? I don't know if you already filed that or when would you file that and when would you know if they take the case.
John Moreira:
We filed that early April, that request. So we feel good that the Supreme Court will take the case and that it will just expedite the whole process. Once the court accepts that, then you're probably looking at a 9- to 12-month process, is what we're estimating.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay. But you're not going to hold off the sale process to wait for that, you just move forward.
John Moreira:
No. No, we're not. I was going to say, Steve, in the meantime, we are expecting to implement the original rate change, and we actually accounted for that in the first quarter this year. Once we get that, then the company can move forward with the filing for their WICA program, which will give them much -- which will give them about 30%, 35% of their annual capital program cost recovery on.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay. And then just on Connecticut Regulatory Environment. I appreciate the decisions being made there. Early in the year, there had been talk about the governor may be kind of expanding the commission and some changes there. Is that still being considered at all? And just -- I know you've been on an initiative to try to highlight these issues. Just do you feel like you're making any progress in resonating on the kind of quality of the regulatory environment being kind of investable?
Joseph Nolan:
Yes. Steve, a couple of things, the governor has the ability to appoint 5 commissioners. He has vacillated over that, and I'm not really sure at this point whether he wants to take it up to 5. As you know, all 3 commissioners remain in hold-over status, and I'm not really quite sure what the current plan is around that. Obviously, we have grave concerns about the environment there. I think you know that. I think everyone knows that.
We enjoy a very productive working relationship in our other 2 jurisdictions where we are so aligned that no light shines between kind of the state's initiatives and our initiatives. And when you collaborate, I think you should have tremendous outcomes. You look at the benefits that Massachusetts is achieving. You look at the progressive moves that are taking place up in New Hampshire as we collaborate with those folks. And they really understand it. And it's going to take that type of collaboration as we look to electrify our system and move away from carbon fuels. But if we don't collaborate, it makes it very, very difficult. I mean we've have operated this way. In my 40-year history, we've always had strong working relation. So it's a disappointment to me, and it's a priority to me as we try to focus on Connecticut and to see if we can't get aligned and get on the same page so that we can move the agenda. Connecticut has a phenomenal opportunity to be really a leader in clean energy. We built that port down there. We collaborated. That clean energy port down there should put them on the map for clean energy. But unfortunately, it's been a real challenge. But I just want to assure you and all of our investors that this is something I take very seriously, and I will continue to work at it 7 days a week until such time as we can get some constructive change.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay. Appreciate that. And then lastly, on the New Hampshire Solar opportunity, I know -- solar in New England tends to be a decent amount, kind of capital cost, just not as much available land, all that stuff. So just any sense on kind of size and investment opportunity there for the New Hampshire Solar?
Joseph Nolan:
Yes. I've got to tell you, one of the challenges -- first of all, we don't really have a sizing at this point. We're really in the first inning of this game, but the fact that they are interested around utility on solar, I take great confidence. But I will tell you the one thing there's no shortage of in the state of New Hampshire is land. And so that's where I see great opportunity.
And I also see the proximity to our infrastructure. It makes it very easy as well. One of the challenges that a lot of folks early in the solar days was folks would want to build, but they'd be in rural areas where there wasn't any load. But we have opportunities in New Hampshire with sizable tracks of land that would allow us to obviously collaborate. It has to be a partnership. It has to be a community that's interested in this, but I do see great opportunity up there. So we're really in the first inning. I think we'll be able to update you probably on the second, third quarter calls around how that's going. But I think the most important thing for us is to get a model in place in New Hampshire for utility-owned solar that is fair for us and is fair for the customers.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Andrew Weisel with Scotiabank.
Andrew Weisel:
In Connecticut, another question here, I agree the state policies and regulatory environment are not aligned. So I understand you're reluctant to put capital to work. My question is, what exactly is it that you're looking for? What would it take to get you more comfortable with the regulatory setup? Is it a qualitative good faith kind of conversation? Are you looking for something more explicit like preapprovals for spending on AMI and EVs?
Joseph Nolan:
Yes. Well, we're looking for preapproval, looking for our regulatory recovery, a roadmap for the recovery of odd dollars that we have spent. As you know, the filing that we just got approved there for $800-plus million, that was money we spent on behalf of the customers in Connecticut. These were state-mandated requests that we did. And so we expect to get paid for that.
And if the state wants to have AMI, we expect to have an orderly recovery process for our investments, just like we have in Massachusetts, and that's all we're looking for that if we spend dollars, we want to know we're going to get the dollars back. We don't want to be chasing those dollars. We don't want to have uncertainty around it. And I know that everybody on this call doesn't want uncertainty. And so you could have my assurance that we will not spend dollars until such time as we have a constructive regulatory environment that allows us to get fair treatment in the recovery of our dollars that we've spent on behalf of the customers in Connecticut to bring better service.
Andrew Weisel:
Okay. Is that something you think could be done in the regulatory arena or would that require legislation?
Joseph Nolan:
No, I think we can do it in the regulatory arena. Certainly -- I mean, we're aligned with the governor, we're aligned with this other agencies. So we can have a collaborative effort that we submit a filing for all on the same page. Even the Attorney General, we have very, very strong relations there. But we just have to get pure, aligned with all of the other interests around the state so that we can get a constructive roadmap to move forward.
Andrew Weisel:
All right. Sounds good. Then on FFO to debt, if I could elaborate, I know this has been asked a few times, and I appreciate the details on Page 9. Maybe this is a silly question. But if the $600 million from under-recoveries adds 2%, you triple that to $0.8 billion. How come the impact to FFO to debt goes up by -- double or less? What dumb guy math might have get, it would be a 3:1 ratio in the dollars and the percentages. So what are the offsets there?
John Moreira:
Well, keep in mind that in that 300 to 400 basis point movement, it does include other cash flow items that we have not quantified in that $1.8 billion, Andrew, and then additionally, when the cash comes in, it's going to impact both the numerator and the denominator accordingly. So it's not a one for one.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Anthony Crowdell with Mizuho.
Anthony Crowdell:
Just quickly on Slide 12, you had issued some parent debt already in the -- for the year. Do I think that's going to -- that's for the maturities at the bottom of this slide or the maturities you may also refinance and that's going to be incremental debt? And let me know if that's not clear.
John Moreira:
No, you're thinking about it correctly. So it's where the maturity is listed on that slide. We do have $900 million that's due on June 27, and then, we have another $450 million in the fall. Also, in January -- early January, we have another $350 million -- $300 million coming due. So it's more of the prefunding. So with the proceeds from the transactions that I highlighted, we should be out of the debt and capital markets for quite some time.
Anthony Crowdell:
Great. And then just to stay on the mark with Connecticut questions. I know sometimes when utilities ramp up CapEx or they may be doing some new projects, they talk to policymakers, some regulators prior to it and get a feel of just the policymakers are on board with this increased capital that they're spending. I'm curious if something happened in Connecticut where you had similar discussions on actually to lowering of CapEx.
Joseph Nolan:
Yes, we've had discussions about our investments. I mean we started talking about AMI 3 years ago, and we're all on the same page, and everybody wanted AMI. We talked about investment in EVs, electric vehicles, infrastructure. So we were totally aligned with, certainly, key leaders down there. So we continue to have that dialogue. And right now, we have dialogue where we share with them that we can't keep moving forward unless we get the certainty around it. I mean, costs have increased since the time we began talking about AMI. If we would get on with the show, that would have saved our customers money, but this delay doesn't help matters. We're kicking it off here in Massachusetts. We're going to be putting in the AMI meters and infrastructure, and it's -- the customers are going to benefit from that.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Durgesh Chopra with Evercore.
Durgesh Chopra:
John, just for investors, and I was trying to think about the implications if you don't move forward with the Aquarion water sale. Can you just help clarify what does that do to the equity? Could the equity -- if you don't move forward with the sale, could the equity be higher than $1.3 billion? Or is that the max, and then if you do, do a sale, that number moves lower?
John Moreira:
Well, there's still a lot of things in flux, and I'm not -- we're not moving off of the $1.3 billion equity needs until we have more clarity, so as things evolve over the coming year. But right now, our position is to kind of work preparing the potential sale for Aquarion and get through Phase 1 and see what -- how that -- see what that looks like.
Durgesh Chopra:
Understood. And then just to be clear on the FFO to debt, I know a lot of questions have been asked, you get to that 14% to 15% by 2025 with or without the Aquarion sale? Am I thinking about it the right way?
John Moreira:
No, no. If you look at the left-hand side of that slide on the bottom, we have other drivers. Those other drivers are cash inflows that we have not quantified. But yes, yes, yes. No, we have assumed -- as I continue to reiterate, in our financing plan that we have assumed the sale of Aquarion.
Durgesh Chopra:
Perfect. Okay. And then just one hopefully quick follow-up. Anything to kind of note in terms of the construction process or costs on revolution in Sunrise? Any updates versus your past disclosures there?
Joseph Nolan:
Yes. No, it's too early right now, but we continue to stay close to it, and we'll keep you updated. We did start though. The good news is we're in the ground, and construction is underway. So we're excited, and we're going to utilize the same practices that we successfully deployed in the construction of the South Fork project, which, as you all know, though, all 12 of the turbines are up, and they're running. And we're very, very proud that we are the first offshore wind provider in the United States.
Operator:
Our final question comes from the line of Travis Miller with Morningstar.
Travis Miller:
Real quick one, staying on CL&P here. If you take out your depreciation or maintenance CapEx, how much of that additional CapEx is covered under an existing rider or tracker or something like that outside of a base rate? You mentioned energy efficiency. Is there other CapEx?
John Moreira:
The biggest CapEx is the $300 million system hardening that we've had in place for quite some time. So that has helped the timely cost recovery and has helped Connecticut get to a much better situation from a reliability standpoint. So I would say that a good chunk of the -- as you pointed out, the maintenance depreciation would be covered by that.
Travis Miller:
Okay. Okay. And then kind of a real quick follow-on on some of the other questions. Do you expect the clean energy policy overall, not necessarily just the rate setting, but clean energy policy overall in Connecticut will be a political issue this year? Or is that something for years down the road?
Joseph Nolan:
Yes. No. I mean the legislative session is going to end next week. So I don't expect that you could see anything at that point. But I think the dialogue will continue, as we'll remain engaged for the rest of this year and into the future until such time as we are all on the same page and we can find out what's important to this state that we can invest in and get a fair return and fair -- really a level playing field. That's all we're looking for.
Matthew P. Fallon:
Sorry, Elissa, I just want to thank everybody for their time, and please follow up with IR with any additional follow-up questions that we can help out with. And I'll turn it back over to Elissa.
Operator:
Thank you. This will conclude today's conference call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.
Operator:
Hello and welcome to the Eversource Energy Q4 and Full Year 2023 Earnings Call. My name is Elliot and I'll be coordinating your call today. [Operator Instructions] I'd now like to hand over to Bob Becker, Director for Investor Relations. The floor is yours. Please go ahead.
Robert Becker:
Good morning and thank you for joining us. I am Bob Becker, Eversource Energy's Director for Investor Relations. During this call, we'll be referencing slides we posted yesterday on our website. And as you can see on Slide 1, some of the statements made during this investor call may be forward looking. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risk and uncertainty which may cause the actual results to differ materially from forecasts and projections. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any of these statements. Additional information about the various factors that may cause actual results to differ and our explanation of non-GAAP measures and how they reconcile to GAAP results is contained within our news release, the slides we posted last night and in our most recent 10-K and 10-Q. Speaking today will be Joe Nolan, our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and John Moreira, our Executive Vice President and CFO. Also joining us today is Jay Buth, our Vice President and Controller. Now, I will turn the call over to Joe.
Joseph Nolan:
Thank you, Bob and thank you all for joining us on the call this morning and for your interest in Eversource. Let me begin with the pathway for a full exit of our offshore wind business on Slide 4. When we started down this path in 2016, we were very excited for the opportunity to bring much needed renewable energy to our region. The high supply prices in the Northeast are not good for anyone, particularly our customers. Until we can reduce the region's reliance on gas, by electric generation price volatility will continue to cause difficulties for our customers. State mandates for our offshore wind procurement provided a strong impetus for our engagement, along with the recognition that offshore wind is one of the few renewable resources that can be produced in quantity to reduce reliance on natural gas and dampen the volatility of our region's electric prices. Unfortunately, our offshore wind investment experienced difficulties as early-stage projects. These difficulties were largely a result of the pandemic, supply chain disruptions, rising interest rates and uncertainty around available resources for installation vessels and fabrication of turbine foundations. We are not alone, as several other offshore wind developers have also experienced similar challenges. These challenges, coupled with the lack of pricing flexibility, inherent in contracts approved by state regulators, result in a projected investment returns substantially below our required thresholds. At the same time, our core business is well positioned to deliver solid operational and financial results, as we move forward in supporting the region's transition to a cleaner energy environment. This led us to seek out a path to refocus our investment portfolio on our utility business, with its strong opportunities for growth. For this reason, I am pleased about our announcement that we have reached an agreement to sell our existing 50% interest in the South Fork and Revolution Wind projects, to Global Infrastructure Partners, our leading infrastructure investor that will generate approximately $1.1 billion of cash proceeds. With the pending sale to GIP, our announcement last month, regarding the conditional sale of Sunrise Wind to Orsted and the sale of the offshore wind lease area that closed last year, I'm pleased to say that we have the pathway in place to finalize a full exit from the offshore wind business. For the year, we have taken a noncash cumulative impairment charge of approximately $1.95 billion, after tax. John will discuss the impairment in more detail. However, I will say that the impairment reflects assumptions that our Board views as appropriate, given the uncertainty around the ultimate outcome of the Sunrise Wind rebid process. As John will discuss, the terms of the agreement with GIP are assumed and reflected in the impairment charge in our long-term financing plan. By taking this impairment charge, we are accounting for our full exit from Offshore Wind. We are pleased to be in the final stage of this long journey and we feel confident that we are turning over the range of the wind business to capable and committed parties. We will remain involved in managing onshore construction for all 3 projects and through our tax equity investment in the South Fork. I'll close my comments on offshore wind, with a brief update on the status of the project construction activity. As the first utility scale, offshore wind farm in commercial operation in the U.S., South Fork Wind has been supplying power to Long Island since late November 2023, when the first turbine was installed. We are now in the process of installing the 12th and final turbine. We expect all turbines to be producing power by March. We continue to advance on both onshore and offshore construction of Revolution Wind, after reaching a positive final investment decision in October of last year. Work on the site of the new onshore substation in Rhode Island, has been underway since late last year. Seabed preparation for the installation of wind turbine foundations is currently in process. Lastly on Sunrise Wind, we continue to get closer to the BOEM record of decision, while we await the results of the latest submission into New York's RFP floor. We made this submission jointly with Orsted, on January 25. Next, let me discuss the water distribution announcement, we made last evening, shown on Slide 5. Our water business is a valuable, well-performing and well-managed company. Although the Water business is earnings accretive to Eversource, we see the potential seal of our water business, as an opportunity to reduce equity needs and improve our regulatory diversity. With its current $1.3 billion rate base and a national reputation for operational excellence, the water business has a strong potential to be of substantial value to another owner, as part of a larger Water business, our strategic infrastructure platform. As a result, we plan to launch a process for evaluating market interest in a transaction for the water business, with the objective of delivering value to both customers and investors. If successful, the proceeds from the sale will provide a source of cash without going to the equity market, thereby enhancing our balance sheet. Moving forward, Eversource will focus on the delivery of clean, safe, reliable energy to our customers and preparing for the clean energy future that our states, our customers and our investors expect. Now I'll turn to our excellent financial and operating performance results on Slide 6. Starting with the financials; we delivered another strong year with reoccurring earnings of $4.34 per share in 2023, representing growth of nearly 6% over 2022. Our Board has approved a dividend increase for the first quarter 2024 of $0.715 per share which amounts to $2.86 per share on an annualized basis; this reflects an increase of 6% over 2023's dividend level. Moving to operations; I am extremely proud of our team once again for delivering reliable electric, natural gas and water service to our 4.4 million customers. As you can see, our electric reliability ranks in the top decile among our peers. We're focused on providing reliable electric service to our customers, who on average have gone nearly 2 years without an outage. In 2023, Eversource again outperformed its target injury rate. Our teams are keeping a strong focus on safe work practices not just during major storm events, when conditions are tough but every day on every job. On natural gas safety, once again, the team delivered another strong year, replacing 145 miles of natural gas pipeline and delivering on-time emergency response times of 98% within 45 minutes. A performance that well exceeds our regulatory requirements. I want to congratulate the Eversource team on these accomplishments. I am very proud of the skill and commitment of the entire team in the way that our employees are aligned in our shared vision of providing the highest level of safety, innovation, service quality and financial discipline for the benefit of our customers. Turning to Slide 7. At Eversource, we know our customers expect us to not only deliver energy today but also to be prepared for the future. To that end, we are actively engaging with our states to enable the Clean Energy future that our customers and our communities envision. At the end of January, we submitted our Electric Sector Modernization Plan, or ESMP to the Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities. After extensive input from the Grid Modernization Advisory Council and stakeholders across the commonwealth. The ESMP is the road map for building out the electric infrastructure and technology platforms to enable a reliable transition to a Clean Energy future in alignment with the state's Clean Energy plan. The filing specifically addresses the coming 5 and 10 years with a vision toward an 85% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Eversource has taken a leadership role in this endeavor and is viewed as a trusted partner at the table in planning the Clean Energy future for Massachusetts. We expect that the Department of Public Utilities to issue a final decision on our plan in August of 2024, addressing approximately $600 million of proposed incremental investment, among other components. In Connecticut, we are continuing to work on our comprehensive outreach plan with participation from across the company. We are leveraging our internal talent to educate Connecticut's stakeholders on the importance of infrastructure investment to our customers in the broader Connecticut economy, as well as the affordability programs that we offer to customers. This approach has proven to be productive, in terms of raising awareness on the value of utility investment. And on the point that Eversource is [indiscernible] that is ready, willing and able to help Connecticut meet its Clean Energy goals. Lastly, in New Hampshire. We are gearing up for a number of regulatory initiatives, including a potential PBR proposal, in evaluating ways to help the state advance Clean Energy projects, such as large-scale solar development. We're excited about the role Eversource will continue to play, to enable a Clean Energy future that's affordable and equitable for all customers. We'll continue to engage with all stakeholders to move this massive complex effort forward. Turning to Slide 8. As you may know, Eversource is an industry and market leader in environmental, social and governance. We continue that focus in 2023. We expanded the charter of the Board's governance, environmental and social responsibility committee, to extend this oversight to include climate-related matters. The full Board receives regular reports on our climate-related goals, key industry updates and policy activity through the Eversource climate scorecard. We continue to make progress on reaching our carbon neutrality goal by 2030 and we submitted our application for a new science-based target in December. I'm pleased to report that due to our continued leadership on ESG, last week, Eversource was named one of America's Most JUST Companies, as announced by JUST Capital and CNBC, for the fifth consecutive year. We have a very exciting future here at Eversource, focused on what we do best. I will now turn the call over to John Moreira.
John Moreira:
Thank you, Joe. And good morning, everyone. This morning, I will cover our 2023 financial results, the offshore wind impairment, the 2023 regulatory update, an update of our 5-year investment forecast for our regulated businesses. And I'll wrap up with our 2024 recurring earnings guidance, long-term financing plan and 5-year earnings and dividend growth guidance. I'll start with 2023 results on Slide 10. Our GAAP results for the year were a loss of $1.26 per share, compared with GAAP earnings of $4.05 per share in 2022. In the fourth quarter, results were a loss of $3.68 per share, compared with GAAP earnings of $0.92 per share in the fourth quarter of 2022. Results for the full year 2023 include an after-tax impairment charge of $5.58 per share, related to our offshore wind investment and $0.02 per share after-tax charge related to our nonrecurring costs. Results for 2022 include a $0.04 per share charge, primarily related to transition costs associated with a completed integration of EGMA. Excluding these charges and the offshore wind impairment, our non-GAAP recurring earnings were $4.34 per share in 2023 as compared to $4.09 per share in 2022. Breaking down our 2023 full year non-GAAP recurring earnings of $4.34 into segments. electric transmission earned $1.84 per share for 2023, as compared with earnings of $1.72 per share in 2022. Improved results were driven by continued investments in our transmission system and lower income tax expense. Our electric distribution earnings were $1.74 per share in 2023, as compared with earnings of $1.71 per share in 2022. A base distribution increase at NSTAR Electric was partially offset by higher interest expense, property taxes and depreciation. Our natural gas distribution segment earned $0.64 per share in 2023, as compared to $0.67 per share in 2022. Increases in depreciation and interest expense, higher effective tax rate and the impact of certain reconciliation charges exceeded the revenues we received from capital trackers and base rate increases at NSTAR Gas and EGMA that became effective November 1, 2022. Our water distribution segment earned $0.09 per share in 2023, compared with $0.11 per share in 2022. Lower results were driven by higher depreciation, O&M expense and interest expense. The results reflect the impact of a very disappointing decision in Connecticut, from PURA for the Aquarion water rate case which is under appeal. Eversource parent and other companies' earnings were $0.03 per share in 2023, as compared with a loss of $0.12 per share in 2022. The improved results reflect a lower effective tax rate and the gain on our planned liquidation of a renewable energy fund, partially offset by higher interest expense and a contribution to the Eversource Charitable Foundation. Let me now turn to offshore wind, starting with the highlights of our sale of South Fork and Revolution Wind to GIP. With South Fork Wind expected to be in service before the transaction closes, our construction contingency is primarily related to Revolution. The terms of the transaction include a capital cost sharing agreement. Under this agreement, capital expenditure overruns incurred for the 50% interest in the project, up to approximately $240 million will be shared equally between Eversource and GIP. Above this threshold, 50% of any project cost overruns would be borne by Eversource. If the final project costs come in under the current construction forecast, Eversource will receive a payment for this difference. The terms and pricing of this agreement with GIP are assumed in the impairment charge and in our long-term financing plan. Let me review the offshore wind impairment, as shown on Slide 11. In 2023, we recorded impairment charges on our offshore wind investment of approximately $2.17 billion pretax or $1.95 billion after tax. As you can see on this slide, the impairment charge was driven by a lower-than-expected sales value of approximately $400 million for the 3 projects, after completing our strategic review in the second quarter of last year. As a result of adverse developments in the fourth quarter, including the further reduction in the expected sales prices driven by higher project costs and the October 2023 denial of the OREC pricing petition for Sunrise Wind, we realized an additional impairment charge in the fourth quarter of approximately $1.77 billion. The Sunrise Wind project drove about $1.22 billion of the impairment charge. In large part due to the OREC repricing denial which led to a lower assumed revenues and ultimately, an evaluation of the potential abandonment cost of Sunrise, if it is unsuccessful in the New York RFP for solicitation. As a reminder, to participate in the process to submit a rebid in the solicitation NYSERDA required any existing projects to terminate their current OREC agreements. This potential loss of both a contract revenue stream and ultimate project viability and any related termination costs was factored into our impairment analysis. Therefore, we assume that if Sunrise is not successful, in the rebid. This would result in no sales proceeds and no value attributable to the ITC adder. These items, coupled with estimated cancellation costs for the project, net of any salvage value, drove the additional impairment charge. Although we have factored this downside set of assumptions and probabilities into our impairment analysis, if Sunrise is ultimately successful in the RFP, Eversource would then sell its ownership interest in the project to Orsted, under the terms of our recently announced agreement. With the completion of that sale, our interest in Sunrise would be terminated. We would not be subject to any further construction contingencies or project cancellation costs. If we are successful selling Sunrise to Orsted, it would provide a full exit for the Offshore Wind business. Turning to Slide 12. I'll walk you through the carrying value of our offshore wind investment, as of December 31, 2023. The carrying value that I will discuss reflects the impact of our fourth quarter impairment charge by project. As you can see, the value of both Sunrise and Revolution were impacted by the fourth quarter impairment. The value of South Fork was not impacted. The fourth quarter impairment charge assumes a set of scenarios regarding potential construction contingencies for Revolution Wind. The charge also assumes that Sunrise Wind would be abandoned. We are very disappointed by the financial impact recognized on these early-stage Offshore Wind projects. However, we are comfortable with the impairment charge assumptions. We have reflected these assumptions in our long-term financial plan which I'll cover in a minute. As we move forward and finalize the sale of these projects, including the result of the recent New York RFP 4, the ultimate carrying value of our offshore wind investment, could change accordingly. On the regulatory front, we had another busy year. Our key 2023 regulatory items are highlighted on Slide 13. Starting with Massachusetts, we completed proceedings on our 2018 to 2021 storm cost recovery request, of approximately $136 million. I'm pleased to report that the Massachusetts DPU conducted a very thorough review and we received approval to recover 100% of our request. This approval highlights the importance of our storm response and acknowledges the tremendous effort from my Eversource colleagues and our contractors to restore customers as quickly and as safely as possible. Also in Massachusetts, we received approval of our first annual revenue adjustment under NSTAR Electric's PBR plan. This adjustment included an increase of a capital adjustment factor or CAPA [ph] as we call it. Turning to New Hampshire. We received the final order of proven $47 million of storm cost recovery, for weather events occurring in 2020 and in 2021. Again, we were granted nearly 100% of our request. We expect to file a general rate review in New Hampshire later this year, to recover the cost of investments that we have made over the last 4 years to significantly improve reliability for customers in New Hampshire. In total, we are now recovering approximately $400 million in rates, over the next 5 years for storm costs in Massachusetts and New Hampshire. In Connecticut, at the end of December, we filed our request for a prudency review of approximately $635 million of storm costs, relating to weather events that occurred from 2018 through 2021. The Connecticut filing contains more than 10,000 pages of support for costs incurred for these significant weather events. We look forward to working through the prudency review with PURA in 2024. Lastly, in our Aquarion's appeal of its March 2023 rate decision, oral arguments were held on January 11 and we expect the court decision over the coming months. Turning to our regulated utility capital plan. Slide 14 reflects our 5-year utility infrastructure investments, by segment updated through 2028. As a reminder, this plan reflects projects that we have a good line of sight on from a regulatory approval perspective. Over this 5-year period, we expect to invest approximately $23.1 billion in our regulated electric, natural gas and water businesses, to continue providing customers with safe and reliable service to meet ongoing load growth and to achieve progress on Clean Energy objectives. Starting with transmission. Our plan includes nearly $6 billion of transmission infrastructure investments, over the next 5 years. These investments include replacement of aging infrastructure to harden the system and increase resiliency during extreme weather events. Innovative substation projects undertaken for reliability and electrification purposes and interconnection projects, adding Clean Energy resources to the grid. Our Transmission capital plan includes a launch, scale, innovative project to build a substation in Cambridge, Massachusetts, completely underground. We are working closely with the city on this project which includes nearly $1 billion of investments to interconnect 4 existing transmission lines. This project will increase capacity to enable electrification and improve the reliability of electric service for customers. Turning to Electric Distribution. Our updated capital forecast now reflects nearly $10 billion of planned utility infrastructure investments, with a continued focus on system resiliency and our top-tier reliability for Electric Service. Our planned electric distribution investments include over $0.5 billion of our AMI program, in Massachusetts. The AMI program will allow customers to save money through heightened control over their own energy consumption and to experience higher service levels through faster outage restoration and other service functions. On the natural gas side, our 5-year plan reflects nearly $5.5 billion of investments and is centered around reliability and safety. The plan is highlighted by our bare steel and cast iron pipe replacement programs in Massachusetts and Connecticut. Across our natural gas system, we'll continue to thoughtfully engage with our states to ensure our investments enable equitable transition to a Clean Energy future. Turning to the water segment. Our 5-year investments are forecasted to be over $1 billion, supporting investments in water treatment facilities and water main replacements to improve water quality. Rounding out our Eversource capital plan, our investments in technology and facilities that's forecasted at $1.1 billion. Moving to Slide 15. Our updated capital plan reflects a $1.6 billion increase in utility infrastructure investments from 2024, through 2027 versus the prior plan. This increase reflects greater visibility on the work needed to serve our customers over the next 4 years. An important consideration in relation to our 5-year capital plan is what has not been included. On the right-hand side of the slide, we show some potential infrastructure investments not currently included in our forecast which would be additive to the plan. These opportunities total up to $2 billion in the forecast period with Connecticut AMI at the top of the list at nearly $700 million. The resulting impact from our updated capital plan, is shown on Slide 16. The customer-focused core business investments included in our capital plan would result in 7.7% growth in rate base from 2022 through 2028. Next, I will turn to our 2024 earnings guidance on Slide 17. We are projecting a non-GAAP recurring earnings per share range of $4.50 to $4.67 per share for 2024. Positive drivers this year include transmission investments for system resiliency and increased electric demand, distribution base rate increases in Massachusetts and New Hampshire, continued focus on controlling O&M expense and a lower effective tax rate. In 2024, our planned distribution rate increases include the first rate base roll-in for EGMA which will adjust rates to recover 6 years of capital investments. This rate adjustment will take effect in November of this year. These positive drivers are expected to be partially offset by higher expenses related to increased capital investments and share dilution. Turning to our long-term financing plan. I'll start with our cash flow assumptions regarding offshore wind, as shown on Slide 18. As I said earlier, our wind impairment reflects a set of assumptions that we have also embedded in our long-term financing plan. Let me walk you through what is assumed in our financing plan. First, we assume cash inflows from the announced sale of South Fork and Rev Wind of $1.1 billion. These proceeds include the value of the 10% ITC adder for Revolution Wind of approximately $170 million. Also assumed in our financing plan, is the realization of our tax equity investment in South Fork Wind which we expect will bring in around $500 million of cash over the next 24 months. The last item is related to our sale of Sunrise Wind to Orsted which is not assumed in our long-term financing plan. If Sunrise is successful in the New York RFP 4 that would be a positive to our plan. I'll now cover a number of drivers that are expected to enhance our FFO to debt ratio from 2023 to 2025, as you can see on Slide 19. These drivers include the Offshore Wind proceeds that I just discussed, planned rate increases at our utilities, recovery of storm cost deferrals, scheduled equity issuances and proceeds from a potential sale of our water business. In terms of the equity assumed in our plan over the next several years, we expect to issue up to $1.3 billion of equity through our existing ATM program. We will also continue to be opportunistic with our alternatives. As Joe mentioned, we are undertaking a review of our water distribution business. Proceeds from a successful sale are assumed in our long-term financing plan, reducing the level of equity that would otherwise be needed. As you can appreciate, we cannot provide any additional details beyond what we've disclosed. We will keep you updated on any decisions from this evaluation and any changes in our financial guidance. Closing now on Slide 20, our robust 5-year capital plan and long-term financing plan drive our 5% to 7% EPS growth rate, through 2028. To be clear, the 5% to 7% is based off of our 2023 recurring EPS of $4.34. Before we get to your questions, I'll turn the call over to Joe for his closing remarks.
Joseph Nolan:
Thank you, John. As I previously said, I'm very excited as I look ahead to the future of Eversource. This amazing team that delivers every day is on the brink of a critical energy transformation, that will benefit our customers, our communities and our environment. The need for utility infrastructure investment has never been greater. In fact, in a draft study released last year, ISO New England projected a need, for up to $15 billion of transmission investment, to meet the region's 2050 Clean Energy objectives. As we look ahead, we see a tremendous need for a collaborative approach to leverage our utility infrastructure development and superior operating skills in Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Connecticut. On that note, I want to thank you for your interest in Eversource and I look forward to seeing you soon. I'll now turn the call back over to Bob and we look forward to answering your questions.
Robert Becker:
Thanks, Joe. I'll turn the call back to the operator to begin Q&A.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] First question comes from Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Joe, let me ask you a question on the up to $1.3 billion equity, I guess without seeing sort of market interest with the inquiring sale and details around Sunrise, where you could get more proceeds than you embed and planned, depending on how things shake out, right which you just alluded to in your prepared, what's kind of giving you confidence around the $1.3 billion, can you beat it? And how are you thinking about the timing and the means of raising that equity?
Joseph Nolan:
Sure. Good question, Shar. Thank you. I would start off by saying that Aquarion, we view Aquarion as a very valuable and attractive asset portfolio, company is well managed, well recognized as a water distribution company and its leadership. So we're -- based on that fact pattern, we've sized and we've estimated what we feel we could harvest from a potential sale. And just to be clear, the $1.3 billion is up to $1.3 billion of equity over the next several years. So we have some flexibility, so we can flex that depending on the ultimate proceeds that we receive.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Sorry but the timing and the means of that equity, any sense there?
John Moreira:
Yes. Well, I mean, we've been guiding the street right along for the past several years, had a $1 billion need, right? And now we're going up to $1.3 billion. So I think it will happen over the next several years. We do plan to be in a position to issue, to go to the equity markets over the coming months. And we are going to -- Shar, just wanted to know, that's why we specifically indicated that we will be executing our equity needs through our ATM program to give us the flexibility that we need.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Great. And then just lastly on this one is just on revolution cost sharing. John, can you just maybe walk us through the pathways for overages on the project? I mean what can go wrong? Any way to sensitize some of the puts and takes either on the construction side, i.e., how expensive does it get putting the crew on standby on the O&M availability side?
Joseph Nolan:
Yes. Sure, Shar. It's Joe. I'll take that. I'll tell you, I'm really, really proud of the work that's taken place on South Fork. It's been an opportunity for us to really dry run, get a sense as to what's involved in this installation. This is a 12 turbine installation. We have 11 out in the lease area now. the 12th one is loaded on the barge in New London. It will go there this weekend. We have been delivering power since November, to folks in Long Island which we're very, very proud of. So given that we are the first upscale offshore wind farm in the United States, that brought a great opportunity for us to be able to understand what's involved in that. So in the fall, we were able to take a real good look at the cost, all the charges associated with constructing South Fork, as we begin to kind of refresh the Revolution costs. And I will tell you that we have accounted for the vessel strategy that we have to utilize now, we're utilizing a feeder barge [indiscernible] European vessel. It's been going very, very well. Those are some of the big charges. Those are the things that have caused increases in offshore wind costs for everybody, not just us. The lack of American vessels is certainly going to be a challenge for anyone in this business. But I will tell you that we have successfully executed. We will have -- the project will be done in March in South Fork. All of the kind of lessons learned, all of the challenges, everything that we've experienced in this offshore wind market, associated with South Fork has been brought to the table on Revolution. So that we know exactly what this is going to cost. We feel very comfortable with this number, this exposure at $240 million given what we have already factored in. So I have a great deal of confidence that we will be able to bring this in and not have to worry about these -- in the overruns.
Operator:
We now turn to Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research.
Steve Fleishman:
So just to close, maybe the loop on the equity issuance. I think John, I heard you say after using the ATM, also opportunistic with our alternatives. Could you just clarify what you mean by that?
John Moreira:
Yes. I mean that was -- we like the ATM program for the reasons I've just stated, it gives us tremendous opportunity and we can take advantage of the market. But if we encounter a very favorable, attractive value, then we can do something -- we'll look to do something else. Whether it's a block or some other deals. So right now, we -- I want to have the most -- the greatest sense of flexibility to execute and maximize the value that we harvest.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. All right. That's very clear. On the second question, just on the FFO to debt slide. Do you have a starting point for 2023 actual first?
John Moreira:
Yes. I mean we -- 2023, we have been challenged by our operating cash flow, is primarily driven by the turnaround and the methodology that we have been required to use as part of guidance from PURA. So for example, our -- we've been significantly under recovered at the COMP franchise in 2023, by a sizable amount close to $1 billion. So that's going to turn around and that's going to turn around in 2024 and 2025. We will get that cash in. So right now, we expect to be in the low single digits for 2023. We're still kind of working those numbers through. But moving forward, I feel confident that we'll be in a 14% to 15% FFO to debt, as I indicated in Slide 19. I'm sorry, I said low single digits. I'm sorry. I meant low double digits.
Steve Fleishman:
Yes. And then just a few of the pieces that you highlight here on the improvement. So just maybe the South Fork part, the tax equity investment, how much like FFO to debt percentage points is that? And is that just all hit '24, '25 and then it goes away. And then I guess you fill it in with more of operating cash?
John Moreira:
Exactly. So the utilization of that, Steve, will happen based on our taxable income. So a lot can happen, storm costs being one of them that we take the deduction as we incur those storm costs and that can lower the utilization of that ITC. So right now, we've modeled it over the next 24 months but if we have further deductions from an operating standpoint, that would slip into '26.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. But for now, just take that $500 million and spread it over the 2 years, if we want to calculate that?
John Moreira:
Correct; that's a reasonable approach.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. And then just one other question on that slide. The storm cost recovery, is that just related to Massachusetts and New Hampshire? Or are you assuming you're able to get storm cost recovery in Connecticut somehow or is that after this period?
John Moreira:
Yes. We don't have -- Connecticut is not factored in. As you -- we just said in the formal remarks, we filed for the prudency review. That's going to take some time. So none of that, it's all really predicated on Massachusetts and New Hampshire. However, once the Connecticut storm cost recovery kicks in, that will give us more inflow of cash for the out years beyond 2025.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Nicholas Campanella with Barclays.
Nicholas Campanella:
So good to see you reaffirming the 5% to 7%, I guess, just you previously used to say high end of that range. I just wanted to kind of clarify if you have any message on where you kind of stand in the 5% to 7% at this point? And then how do we kind of think about Aquarion sales kind of impact to that 5% to 7%? Is it baked in? Does it put you somewhere else in the range depending on those outcomes there?
John Moreira:
Sure, Nick. So let me start with the latter question. The Aquarion potential sale is baked into that guidance, as I mentioned. So we are assuming that. And then the 5% to 7%, as I want to reiterate, it's a growth aspiration of 5% to 7%. We're not giving any indication where on that spectrum we will ultimately land. Right now, we're comfortable with that, a lot can happen that can move us up. But until we have that more transparency and more clarity, we're sticking with 5% to 7% growth rate. We'll continue to update you all as things progress on our long-term guidance growth.
Nicholas Campanella:
Okay. I appreciate that. And then I guess just sticking with Aquarion, obviously, you're trying to find ways to mitigate equity issuance in the 5-year plan. Just what's inspiring your confidence to kind of come back to do another sales process at this point? Do you feel confident it's not going to be as drawn out as the last one? And then just how do we kind of think about like the time line and then also the agency's willingness to kind of see through another asset sale, just given you're still on negative outlook?
Joseph Nolan:
Yes. Well, let me add a couple of things. I'm not going to give you a time line on the asset yield but I will tell you that it's a very different animal, Aquarion. I mean we're talking about wind partnership with another party. We only own 50%. We talked about the fact that it's very challenging and you don't own the entire asset. We own all of Aquarion. It makes things a lot less complex. This asset is very, very attractive. We've been in this business now for several years. It's a great business. It's the seventh largest water company in the country. But the fact of the matter is there are 50,000 water companies in the country. So to try to do -- to assemble water companies. It takes time, it takes effort but something of this magnitude certainly is attractive to many, many folks. So I won't give you a time line but I will tell you that it's not nearly as complex. It's not even in the same category of the wind assets. So I feel very, very good about it.
John Moreira:
And I would just add, Joe, is spot on from an execution, this is a totally different animal. And then from your latter question on how the agencies, as long as we have a pathway, this kind of mitigates any further equity needs that we may have. So it's still cash coming in the door which is very appealing and supportive of our credit metrics.
Operator:
Our next question comes from David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley.
David Arcaro:
Could you just touch on cost savings initiatives. I think you mentioned that you're expecting lower O&M in 2024. I guess how much lower? What are the levers you're pulling there? And what are you thinking kind of going forward off of a 2024 base there, too?
John Moreira:
Yes. I would say that in 2023, we did experience some higher O&M levels that we don't think will reoccur in 2024. So that's one of the drivers, David. And then we are still in the technology deployment. Right now, we are going through a new CIS system, as part of the Massachusetts AMI deployment. And we think that there are savings, there are efficiencies that we can harvest as well. We already have one of our operator in Western Massachusetts went live a couple of weeks ago. So we think that there's savings there as well that we can harvest. So those are the major drivers. And as well as other efficiencies throughout the organization.
David Arcaro:
Okay, great. Then, I just wanted to clarify maybe on the New York 4 outcome with the auction. How could that change the outlook? Is -- are you saying the proceeds for Orsted are not currently contemplated in the equity need guidance? And could that come down from where it is now based on being successful in that auction?
John Moreira:
That is absolutely correct. It's not -- any proceeds from an ultimate sale to Orsted has not been factored into our financing plan. So it would adjust our equity needs. And then for that reason, among other things, that's why we went out with an up to valuation. So you're thinking about it correctly.
David Arcaro:
Yes, makes sense. Then just wanted to quickly clarify. Just the $1.3 billion, does that include the DRIP? Or do you -- what do you expect that to be on an annual cadence going forward?
John Moreira:
The 1 point -- the up to $1.3 billion does not include the DRIP. So that level is pretty consistent about $100 million to $120 million per year and that will continue.
Operator:
We now turn to Durgesh Chopra with Evercore ISI.
Durgesh Chopra:
Can I go back to Aquarion? And in relation to you kind of alluding the 5% to 7% incorporates in Aquarion sale, you have the CapEx baked into your 5-year plan, the Aquarion CapEx currently. I'm just -- I guess what I'm trying to ask is, how do you fill the earnings hole for Aquarion, I understand it's small. Is it basically debt reduction from the proceeds or CapEx could go elsewhere to substitute Aquarion earnings?
John Moreira:
I would say it's a combination of both. Yes, we did leave the CapEx, their CapEx in our forecast but it's clear, it's delineated. You can see how much that relates to. And the fact that in my formal remarks, I highlighted and we have it in the slide on the deck that if you look at the forecast period, forecast over forecast, we're up $1.6 billion. And in my formal remarks, I also indicated that we should be mindful of what has not been included in our 5-year forecast. And that amount could be up to $1 billion to -- up to $2 billion, once again within this forecast period. So we feel very, very optimistic, we are able not only to replace the earnings but also mitigate any of the dilution.
Durgesh Chopra:
Understood. That's very clear. And then just what -- can you just remind us your earned ROEs in Connecticut, as of 2023? And what are you modeling as you think about the 5% to 7% EPS growth target going forward?
John Moreira:
Yes. I mean, obviously, they have dipped a little. We've been out of Connecticut for quite some time. We've had the settlement agreement. I would say that they're probably in the CL&P [ph] is around hovering around 8% and Yankee in the 7% range.
Durgesh Chopra:
Got you. And then just what are you modeling? Like are you modeling ROE improvement, ROE staying the same, perhaps going lower as you think about the 5% to 7% growth rate?
John Moreira:
Well, I mean, we were -- we've determined that we're going to stay out for at least another year or longer. So we model in the appropriate assumptions as we normally do with any rate proceeding in our 5-year forecast.
Operator:
We now turn to Angie Storozynski with Seaport.
Agnieszka Storozynski:
So just maybe first on assumptions behind the equity needs. So again, if I just look at the $1.3 billion and what I would expect Aquarion could bring. That's a little bit -- it seems like we're getting close to $3 billion in equity, again, my estimates, that seems large versus our prior expectations. And I'm just wondering what kind of credit assumptions you have embedded in it? So do you expect that, that amount, whatever the number is, eventually allows you to keep current ratings -- credit ratings, especially with the S&P?
John Moreira:
Yes. So Angie, we're very mindful of what the downgrade thresholds are. And our financing plan, we feel confident that it will meet that -- those thresholds, particularly at S&P which has moved us up to a 14% threshold, as you know.
Agnieszka Storozynski:
Yes. And then secondly, you have this port challenge for Aquarion's rate case. And I'm just wondering if, one, there's an outcome we need for that sale process to be successful; and two, if you approach the regulator in Connecticut about this potential sale?
Joseph Nolan:
Yes. So Angie, this is Joe. The court case was heard. We felt that the -- it went very well. We do expect a decision in the next few months. And our expectation is that it would go back to PURA. It will have no impact on our ability to transact. So we're still -- we're very, very confident in that case in the outcome.
John Moreira:
Angie, I would just add that, quite honestly, as Joe mentioned, we should see that court decision in the next couple of weeks. That's our expectation. And that would actually be behind us before we execute on the transaction.
Agnieszka Storozynski:
Okay. And no discussions with PURA around that potential sale or putting the asset on the block?
Joseph Nolan:
Yes. No, we've had communication with the governor. I did talk to the governor and I let him know of this transaction. As you know, it's quasi-judicial Board, the PURA and there's certain things they can and can't talk about. So we're trying to be very mindful of that.
Agnieszka Storozynski:
And then lastly, the dividend growth profile, is it basically mimicking the earnings growth or EPS growth?
John Moreira:
Angie, you're spot on. As you heard from me, our growth rate 2023, compared to '22, hovered around a 6% growth rate. We just -- as Joe mentioned, the Board just approved on an annualized basis, another 6% dividend increase. So we have a long-standing record of continuing to grow our dividend in line with our earnings.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Anthony Crowdell with Mizuho.
Anthony Crowdell:
Just I guess two quick ones. One to follow up from Steve's question. I think you were talking about maybe some ITCs in your FFO to debt metrics. Any chance you could tell us what amount of ITCs you booked in '23 earnings and what your forecast is in '24 earnings?
John Moreira:
Yes, Anthony, this is John. So the ITC that Steve was alluding to, relates to the South Fork equity investment, that we just completed last year. And the size of that bread box is about $500 million. We have not recognized any of those ITCs. And I would view those ITCs as being cash driven and not earnings driven.
Anthony Crowdell:
Great. And then just lastly, on the 8-K you filed this morning, gave some more details on the transaction. I believe in it, you guys have guaranteed an IRR to the buyer of roughly 13%. If you use your best estimate today of what you think the project would cost and your best estimate forecasting everything, where do you think the IRR stands today?
John Moreira:
Yes. With the cost pressures that we've had, I want to make sure I understand your question.
Anthony Crowdell:
Well, I guess I'm wondering, it's at 13%, we were maybe forecasting a lower IRR of the project based on our assumptions. And so we're thinking that -- or is there from day 1 that you assume that there's a payment going out to the buyer to get to the 13% IRR?
Joseph Nolan:
It's been -- it's already been baked in the transaction. That's what -- that's a portion of the impairment which would allow them to be able to get the return that they expect. So that's already been factored in that -- that was accounted for.
John Moreira:
Yes, that's right.
Operator:
We now turn to Paul Zimbardo with Bank of America.
Paul Zimbardo:
To clarify, what's the forecast for capital investment into offshore wind into 2024 and specifically kind of before the close of the transaction?
John Moreira:
Yes, Paul, we really haven't said that. There's time sensitivities as to when funding obligations transfer, not only to both GIP but also to Orsted as well. But I can tell you that it's not a significant level. And all of those assumptions have been baked into our financing plan.
Joseph Nolan:
And whatever we put in comes back to us. It's not as if we're going to be out of any money.
Paul Zimbardo:
Okay. And then on the lower effective tax rate in 2024, could you quantify what that benefit is, kind of what you had in 2023 from lower effective tax rate? And how much of the improvement is in 2024?
John Moreira:
Yes. I mean, where we landed in 2023, I would say, high teens and where we project to be in 2024 is also in the high teens, I would say, 18% to 20%, is the effective tax rate. So some of the benefits that we were able to recognize, we see those recurring in 2024.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Ryan Levine with Citi.
Ryan Levine:
On the cost sharing or earnout clawback like structure, what's the time line where you would receive cash payments, if costs were lower than targets? And conversely, if there's any cash flows -- cash outflows? And any sense on timing when you expect those payments to be made?
Joseph Nolan:
Sure. I mean would be all resolved at COD. At COD, our contingent liability is resolved. We plan to have the Revolution project in service in the fall of 2025. So that should be the timing you should be thinking.
Ryan Levine:
Okay. And then given the uncertainty of the contingent payments, would you look to wait to time your equity issuance once you have resolution on COD?
Joseph Nolan:
Well, the equity issuance is a multiyear program. So it wouldn't be anything, it would be right, it's still the same window of time that we're talking about. John?
John Moreira:
Yes. And that's been factored into our financing plan, the timing of when that would reach COD and so we're -- we feel good. Joe, in his formal remarks and some of the Q&A that he's responded to, we feel good where we are with the most current forecast -- construction forecast for Revolution and that has become the baseline for the sharing.
Ryan Levine:
Okay. And then on the water sale, to the extent you can respond, did the process already start? Or is it being initiated with the announcement last night?
Joseph Nolan:
No, it's -- the process has not started. It's going to -- last night, we kicked it off and it will be -- we'll get to work on it as soon as this call is over.
Ryan Levine:
Great. And then last question for me. We've seen other utilities slow the dividend growth to be less than EPS growth. Is the management or Board considering a change in dividend policy on a go-forward basis, as the capital needs and equity needs evolve?
John Moreira:
No, we don't. I just reiterated what our expectations are for both long-term earnings, EPS growth of 5% to 7% and we have -- we expect to grow our dividend in line with the earnings growth.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Travis Miller with Morningstar.
Travis Miller:
On the Revolution, what kind of involvement are you going to continue to have on the operational construction side? And I'm thinking in part to make sure that the costs stay in line with your estimate. Will you be involved in the project or more third party?
Joseph Nolan:
Yes. No, no, great question. So we're actively involved in the land-based portion of that construction. I've been down in Rhode Island. I've been with Governor McKee, we broke ground on the substation, the conduit work that runs from the point of entry from the ocean to the substation. We will play a very, very active role. And I think that having a seat at the table is important for all the reasons that you stated. So we will continue to play that role until such time as that project is in commercial operation.
Travis Miller:
Okay, perfect. And then going back kind of strategic over the years. I think one of the initial thoughts that you had behind all these nonutility investments was to reduce some of the exposure to Connecticut. Now it seems like you've come back and now have more of that exposure post this. What's kind of changed over the years to -- in Connecticut to suggest that you think perhaps a better operating environment -- investment environment there?
John Moreira:
Well, I would say the Aquarion transaction was more -- it's predicated on the fact that our equity needs that we need to raise equity and this is an accretive -- potential accretive transaction that we are looking to execute. So that's really kind of the impetus of us pursuing a transaction for Aquarion.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] We now turn to Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates.
Paul Patterson:
Just really quickly to make sure I understood the answer to Anthony Crowdell question. There is no earnings impact associated with 2023 and 2024 with offshore wind on a non-GAAP basis and adjusted basis. Is that correct?
John Moreira:
I believe Anthony's question was more on the ITC.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. Yes. Okay. Well, I'm just wondering, just generically speaking, is there any EPS impact on an adjusted non-GAAP basis for offshore wind in 2023 and 2024?
John Moreira:
No.
Paul Patterson:
Okay, great. And then, moving to the PBR case. I noticed that in December, you guys and also United Illuminating, as for the case to be withdrawn and then reinitiated as a new type of case. And without getting into the details because they're very complicated. But how do you see that case proceeding, I guess, at this point? I know that the commission earlier this month said no to that proposal. But obviously, there's some concerns that you guys have about it that you voiced in your filings. Any thought process we should have about what the outlook is there?
John Moreira:
Yes. Paul, a couple of things there. Number one, quite honestly, we were a bit disappointed that docket or those dockets, there is actually 3 of them got delayed or pushed out a bit. So I think it's still far too early for us to speculate because I think there are proceedings that we wanted to take place. And now some of those will likely happen. So we can't speculate, as to what the outcome would be at this point. I think there's a lot more work and a lot more discussion with PURA that will have to take place.
Operator:
We now turn to Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan.
Aidan Kelly:
This is actually Aidan Kelly on for Jeremy. Just one quick question on our end. What was the parent interest expense drag in '23 versus '22? And could you just talk about like the offsets behind that?
John Moreira:
Well, I would say the interest obviously is higher and we said that has an impact. But I would focus your attention more on to the financing plan, that we just disseminated and the EPS growth rate and for '24 and the longer-term growth rate.
Operator:
This concludes our Q&A. I'll now hand back to Bob Becker for final remarks.
Robert Becker:
Thanks, Elliot and thank you, everybody, for joining us today. If you have any follow-up questions, please reach out to Investor Relations.
John Moreira:
Thank you, everyone.
Joseph Nolan:
Thank you, everybody.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, today's call has now concluded. We'd like to thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.
Operator:
Hello, and welcome to the Eversource Energy Q3 2023 Earnings Call. My name is Alex, and I'll be coordinating the call today. [Operator Instructions] I'll now hand over to your host, Bob Becker, Director for Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Robert Becker:
Good morning, and thank you for joining us. I'm Bob Becker, Eversource Energy's Director for Investor Relations. During this call, we'll be referencing slides we posted on our website. And as you can see on Slide 1, some of the statements made during this investor call may be forward-looking. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risk and uncertainty, which may cause the actual results to differ materially from forecasts and projections. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any of these statements. Additional information about the various factors that may cause actual results to differ, and our explanation of non-GAAP measures and how they reconcile to GAAP results, is contained within our news release, the slides we posted this morning, and in our most recent 10-K and 10-Q. Speaking today will be Joe Nolan, our Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer; and John Moreira; our Executive Vice President and CFO. Also joining us today is Jay Buth, our Vice President and Controller. Now I will turn the call over to Joe.
Joseph Nolan:
Thank you, Bob, and thank you, everyone, for joining us on this call this morning. I look-forward to our conversation today, and to seeing many of you at the EEI Conference next week. First, let me start with the topic that I'm certain is top of mind to all of you, which is an update on the sale of our Offshore Wind investment. We are very pleased to have closed the sale of our 50% stake in the uncommitted lease area to Orsted in September, along with our South Fork Wind tax equity investment. We are delighted to have these transactions behind us. As for the seal of our interest, in the three projects which are under development, we have substantially completed our contract negotiations with a buyer and continued to make good progress on this front. What remains to be completed is for the buyer and Orsted to finalize several documents, such as their new joint-venture agreement. We expect this process to wrap up shortly, allowing us to execute our sales agreement with the buyer and announce the terms of the sale. As you see on Slide number 3, I'm very happy to report that our South Fork Wind project is expected to fully go into service in early 2024. The onshore construction is complete and connected to our export cable. While offshore construction is significantly advanced with the offshore substation and array cables installed and connected. Currently, the turbine installation is underway and we expect to have seven to nine turbines operationally complete by the end of this year, with the remaining turbines installed in January. This project will spearhead the US offshore wind industry and will be one of the country's first utility-scale offshore wind farms built by Connecticut labor from various unions. On October 31st, our joint venture announced that we have taken our Final Investment Decision or FID on Revolution Wind. This is an important project milestone that allows it to advance to full onshore and offshore construction and installation and have this project in service in late 2025. I'd like to now address the recent events in New York, which I know have been a source of great interest for many of you. On October 12th, the New York Public Service Commission denied petitions for pricing adjustments from several renewable developers, including the petition for our Sunrise Wind Project. The petition sought to address the extraordinary macroeconomic challenges from higher inflation and interest rates, along with supply chain disruptions that developed since our OREC agreement was executed in the fall of 2019. These factors were incorporated by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority or NYSERDA in their recent offshore wind solicitation. While we are disappointed with the New York PSC's decision, especially given that NYSERDA had publicly advocated for pricing adjustments, we support their commitment to transparent competitive RFP process. We are very encouraged to see that New York is working to establish an accelerated rebidding process, which includes an accelerated track, where winning bids could be announced as early as next year. Together with our JV partner Orsted, we responded to NYSERDA's request for information. Together, we will work towards developing a bid that will reflect the attractive nature of this project. We feel confident that Sunrise Wind will deliver clean and reliable energy to New York, and support economic development in the region, much earlier than many other projects. We will continue to evaluate ways to maximize project economics and to ensure project schedules remain on track. We have begun limited onshore construction for Sunrise Wind and we have also identified solutions for our installation vessel, which many of you have been asking us about to maintain the project schedule for Sunrise Wind and Revolution Wind. We expect both projects to be in service in late-2025. We're excited by the recent actions taken by the six regional governors who asked the Biden administration to clarify tax benefits for current US offshore wind projects and provide relief on federal offshore wind lease costs, as well as, encouraging accelerated permitting process for offshore wind projects. And in October, Connecticut Governor Ned Lamont announced a first-of-its-kind partnership between Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island to seek offshore wind proposals that will expand the benefits for the region and help reduce costs. All three states have issued RFPs to procure over 6,000 megawatts with bids due in early 2024. Eversource will play a key role in providing the transmission and distribution infrastructure investment needed to connect these important resources to our grid. Moving over to our core business, as you know, everything we do here at Eversource is done with a focus to continue to enhance our service for customers. As shown at the top of Slide 4, we continue to serve customers well, delivering top-decile electric reliability performance at nearly two years between interruption and our gas emergency response are exceeding our internal target. These high-performance levels are the result of the investment we've made in our electric and gas systems over the past several years. Investments focused on ensuring our system is strong and resilient and ready to adapt to the needs of our customers for years to come. Looking at our Clean Energy focus, we continue to move forward on enabling clean energy in our region, and we continue to make good progress in reaching our carbon neutrality goal by 2030. In Massachusetts, we are investing nearly $2 billion in our electric transmission and distribution system to advance clean energy resources. Moving to the bottom of Slide 4, our customers continued to be burdened by high energy prices, particularly during peak winter months. While this winter's supply prices will be high compared to summer rates, they are expected to be significantly lower than last winter's; a welcome relief for our customers. To-date, Connecticut is fully procured at prices significantly lower than last year. Massachusetts is at 50%, New Hampshire is procured through January. If current market conditions continue, the expectation is that the winter supply rates in all three states will be much lower than last year. Though prices across the region are lower than last winter, we recognize that our customers are feeling the pinch of high cost in many areas, that's why we're doing what we can today to help our customers lower their bills this winter. Along with our industry-leading energy efficiency programs, we also launched a new outreach campaign in Connecticut to encourage customers to sign up with competitive suppliers to save money. We're also educating customers on new energy assistance options. I'm happy to report that Connecticut residential customers have responded. The share of residential customers receiving standard service from Eversource has dropped from over 90% last winter to 70% heading into this winter. To serve our customers and ensure they optimize their energy use, we continue to build out our industry-leading energy efficiency programs. In fact, Eversource ranks number one as the best energy efficiency provider in the country. As you can see on the left side of the slide, we invested over $600 million in these programs last year, avoiding lifetime greenhouse gas emissions of nearly 3 million metric tons. We'll continue to build on this great foundation moving forward. By enabling energy efficiency, encouraging customers to shop for supply, and educating customers on energy assistance options, we're doing what we can to lower customer bills today. Longer-term, we are working with our states to provide the infrastructure investment necessary to access reliable renewable energy like offshore wind and solar generation. Turning to Slide 5. The shift to electric vehicles and zero carbon heating will add tremendous incremental electric demand to our grid. As you can see here, New England electric demand growth is expected to more than double by 2050, and winter peak demand is expected [Technical Difficulty] 2050. This is in stark contrast to a relatively flat electric demand we've seen over the past decade. Along with the rest of the utilities across the country, we are aggressively planning for the clean-energy future here at Eversource. On September 1st, we filed our Electric Sector Modernization Plan or ESMP. This plan is a roadmap for our partnership with Massachusetts to enable the state's clean energy climate plan. Plan details how we'll continue to maintain safe and reliable service for our customers, as we transition to a decarbonized future. In addition to our base investments necessary to increase distribution system capacity, including the implementation of AMI and other technology platforms, Eversource has proposed additional investment that goes beyond the nearly $2 billion of clean energy investment, in Massachusetts through 2027. This investment will go towards improving the resiliency of our system, integrating additional solar generation, and implementing new technology to enable additional distributed energy resources. Our proposed plan is expected to exceed Massachusetts' 2040 goals and achieve 70% of the state's 2050 greenhouse gas emission goals. By requiring electric distribution companies to submit in a fully transparent manner, the long-term grid modernization plans, Massachusetts is taking a leadership role in enabling decarbonization. They're not just setting policies, but tying infrastructure, clean energy, and customer engagement together. We're excited to engage with environmental justice and consumer and business advocates to establish the right framework for all Massachusetts customers to advance towards the clean energy future. We look forward to engaging with all stakeholders as we work towards a final decision from the DPU way next year. Moving on to Connecticut, the regulatory environment remains challenging as evidenced by Aquarion and United Illuminating rate case decisions, which produce returns that are value-destructive for investment, but we are encouraged by the recent actions by Governor Lamont supporting offshore wind investment in the region. We see the governor's support as a realization that investment at a reasonable return is necessary to provide the clean energy future that our region and country are moving toward. In closing, I couldn't be prouder of the effort that the Eversource team puts in every day, providing for our customers' needs. We have the experience and the expertise to guide our customers as we develop a bold bright energy future for New England and the Northeast. Thank you again for your time. I will now turn the call over to John.
John Moreira:
Thank you, Joe, and good morning, everyone. This morning, I will review our results for the third quarter of 2023, discuss the status of our offshore wind investments, and review our cash flow position. Let me start with Slide 6. Our GAAP and recurring earnings were both $0.97 per share in the third quarter of 2022 compared with GAAP and recurring earnings of $1 per share and $1.01 per share respectively for the third quarter of 2022. GAAP results for 2022 include transition and transaction costs related to Eversource Gas Company of Massachusetts of approximately $2.2 million. As a reminder, results for the third quarter of 2023 reflect a negative $0.08 per share impact for NSTAR Electric's rate design change, as shown on slide 7, adjusting the earnings for the third quarter of 2023 by this amount would result in both GAAP and recurring earnings of $1.05 per share. As I have previously mentioned, this rate design change does not impact full year results. Moving back to Slide 6 and looking at some additional details on the third quarter earnings by segment, starting with our Electric Transmission segment, which earned $0.46 per share in the third quarter of 2023 as compared with earnings of $0.44 per share in the third quarter of 2022. Improved results were driven by our continued investments in our transmission system. Our third quarter 2023 Electric Distribution earnings were $0.50 per share, compared with earnings of $0.65 per share in the third quarter of last year. The earnings decrease is due primarily to the timing of the rate design change at NSTAR Electric that I mentioned earlier, as well as higher storm-related costs, higher interest costs, depreciation, and property tax expense. These factors were partially offset by higher distribution revenues at NSTAR Electric and from capital trackers that we have in place. Our Natural Gas Distribution segment lost $0.10 per share in the third quarter of 2023 as compared to a loss of $0.07 per share in the third quarter of 2022. The increased losses were due to higher regulatory and operating expenses, depreciation, and interest expense, and were partially offset by higher revenues from the base rate increases at NSTAR Gas and EGMA which took effect November 1 of 2022. Our Water Distribution segment earned $0.05 per share in the third quarter of 2023, which is the same level, we are in the third quarter of last year. Eversource Parent and Other Companies' recurring earnings were $0.06 per share in the third quarter of 2023, as compared to a loss of $0.06 per share in the third quarter of 2022. The improved third quarter results primarily reflect a lower effective tax rate, that was partially offset by higher interest expense. Turning to Slide 8. Based on our financial results to-date and our strong cost discipline, we are narrowing our 2023 recurring earnings projection to between $4.30 to $4.43 per share compared with our previous range of $4.25 to $4.43 per share. Looking at our longer term earnings growth rate expectation, as you saw in our news release and can see on Slide 8, we are reaffirming our long-term EPS growth rate solidly in the upper half of the 5% to 7% range. We are also reaffirming our $21.5 billion five-year regulated capital program, as shown on Slide 9. Current capital expenditures totaled approximately $3.2 billion in the first nine months of 2023. Now, to further expand on what Joe covered, we reached an important milestone in our effort to exit our offshore wind business. On September 7th, Eversource completed the sale of its 50% interest in the lease area that includes approximately 175,000 developable acres to Orsted for $625 million in an all-cash deal. We also closed on our tax equity investment in South Fork Wind with Orsted. We used $528 million of the proceeds from the lease area sale for our tax equity investment. As a current 50% equity partner in South Fork, half of this tax equity investment or $264 million was returned to us in October. We expect to recover the tax equity investment primarily in the form of tax credits once the turbines are placed in service. These tax credits will be utilized to reduce Eversource's federal income tax liability, including refunds from prior years expected over the next 12 to 18 months. As Joe mentioned, we continue to make good progress on advancing the sale of our existing 50% interest in our three offshore wind projects. On our second quarter earnings call, I discussed one of our contingent considerations with the sale of the projects, that we expected a positive outcome from the Sunrise Wind OREC repricing petition, representing approximately $450 million in value to Eversource. Although we were very disappointed by the New York Public Service Commission's rejection of the pricing petition, we are encouraged by NYSERDA's quick reaction in its request to run an accelerated RFP process. As I previously indicated, advancing the sales transaction was not contingent on a resolution of Sunrise's OREC repricing petition. As we assess our options for an OREC rebid for Sunrise, we could potentially see a scenario whereby we move forward with the sale for South Fork and Revolution Wind, followed by a transaction for the sale of Sunrise with the buyer. As we navigate through this accelerated RFP process, we will continue to look at every alternative to keep this sales process moving forward in an efficient and timely manner. Now, I'd like to update you on our expectations for qualification for the two additional 10% investment tax credit adders under the Inflation Reduction Act or IRA. We had previously assumed a positive outcome regarding one additional 10% adder for Sunrise Wind and Revolution Wind that represented approximately $400 million in value to Eversource. Let me start with the Energy Communities. We do believe there is a good path around the prospects for qualifying for the Energy Communities provision of the IRA for both Sunrise and Revolution, which would increase our potential ITCs to 40% of the eligible basis for these projects. Therefore, the Energy Communities' qualification would cover this contingent value that we have recognized. Also, we will continue to explore opportunities to engage with the Treasury Department, as they clarify the rules around the domestic content provisions of the IRA to qualify for an additional 10% investment tax credit. As a reminder, the $400 million in value I just mentioned, is based on achieving a single quantification outcome between either the Energy Communities or the domestic content adders. As assumed in our second quarter offshore wind impairment charge, we only assume one additional 10% ITC adder as a contingent consideration. Should the projects qualify for both the energy communities and the domestic content adders, it would result in upside to Eversource. We will continue to monitor both the RFP process and the ability to qualify for one or more of the ITC adders and evaluate their impacts along with other potential impacts, as part of our continual review of our impairment models. As a part of this evaluation, an important consideration will be the likelihood of success of any future bid award for Sunrise Wind from this accelerated RFP. Turning to cash flows. First, let me say that maintaining strong credit ratings is very important to us. Therefore, we are disappointed with the recent credit rating action taken by Moody's as the timing was a bit unfortunate. Our short-term ratings were not impacted by this action and therefore we should not see any impact on our commercial paper cost. As it relates to future long-term financing cost, we see potentially minimal impact. We expect our cash flows will be enhanced and more specifically, an improvement in our ratio of funds from operation relative to debt or FFO to debt. Although we expect that our 2023 FFO to debt would be a bit weak primarily given the delay in closing the offshore wind sales transaction, however, moving forward, we expect our cash-flow position to increase significantly. There are several factors we expect to contribute to enhancing our FFO to debt ratio well beyond the new threshold of 13% of FFO to debt by 2024 and beyond. A key factor driving an improvement in cash flows are the proceeds from the sale of our offshore wind projects along with eliminating the project funding requirements. You may recall that as of June 30th of 2023, the carrying value of our offshore wind investment was $2.1 billion, net of the $401 million pre-tax impairment charge and the proceeds from the sale of the lease area. We have previously indicated that there are approximately $850 million of contingent considerations as part of the sale that is comprised of the $450 million pricing adjustments or now an RFP rebid for Sunrise OREC. If successful with the RFP award, this cash flow would be received when the transaction closes. In addition, as I previously discussed, a potential $400 million from the energy communities of a 10% ITC adder quantification would be received when the projects reach COD, which we expect in 2025. Cash flows will be further enhanced from our core regulated businesses from electric and gas distribution rate adjustments primarily in Massachusetts and other cost recovery mechanisms. We anticipate additional deferred storm cost recovery of about $400 million to $500 million rolling into rates during 2024, that will be recovered over a five-year period. Also of note, we will fully monetize our $528 million of South Fork tax equity investment through lower tax payments and refunds, which will further contribute to an improvement in our cash flow and provide the ability to pay down debt, including a portion of the $1.4 billion of parent debt maturing in 2024. Lastly, we are committed to completing the $1 billion equity as part of our ATM program. As shown on Slide 10, we have issued no additional equity under this program through October. We also anticipate raising an additional equity through our dividend reinvestment and employee incentive programs through October, and we have issued 900,000 shares under that program. Thank you for joining us this morning, and I look forward to seeing many of you next week. I will now turn the call back over to Bob for Q&A.
Robert Becker:
Thanks, John. I'll turn the call back to the operator to begin Q&A.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question for today comes from Shar Pourreza of Guggenheim Partners. Your line is now open, please go ahead.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Hey, guys. Good morning. Can you hear me?
Joseph Nolan:
Good morning, Shar.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Good morning. Sorry, we just saw, obviously, your partner Orsted taking a total impairment of around $900 million for the three projects. Can you just talk a little more about why you didn't take an additional impairment this quarter? And maybe just provide more clarity regarding Sunrise and that accelerated RFP process in New York with the buyer? I guess, John, what alternatives were you referencing? Thanks.
Joseph Nolan:
Great. Well, thanks, Shar. Let me start with the RFP. While the merits of our repricing petition were in line with the recent NYSERDA RFPs and the resulting price ask from our petition was lower than the average price of a recent New York awards, our repricing petition was denied, unfortunately by the New York PSC. The primary reason, Shar, they cited was the pricing adjustments would have been done administratively rather than through competitive procurement, which is what they did not want to do. However, you'll see that NYSERDA then issued an RFP right after the denial for a future RFP for additional offshore wind. We have responded to that recent New York RFI and we'll evaluate the RFP terms. Given the maturity of Sunrise, in terms of the citing, permitting and early construction, this project is probably best positioned to win this RFP. John, you can hit on the impairment question for Shar, please.
John Moreira:
Sure. Good morning, Shar. So it's pretty -- if you look at the impairment charge that our partner took last week and what happened to us in Q2, the impairment charge that we took, the pre-tax $401 million, which was reflective of the gain on the lease area, it's pretty comparable. So I would portray it this way that I think there is alignment between what has happened to us on these projects and what is -- and what we saw just last week with Orsted. So for that reason, and also the assumptions are very comparable with what they assumed and announced and what we considered back in June. And the last part of that question as to from a structural standpoint, you heard in my formal remarks that it's still very, very early in the process, but there could be a scenario where we move forward with the buyer on South Fork and Rev and kind of have a second transaction with this buyer to wrap up Sunrise. Obviously, it should be no surprise to anyone on the call from a project financing standpoint, you need to be locked in on the revenue agreement. So if there's an ability for us to enhance the revenue agreement and that takes four or five months, we are very supportive of that project delay in closing.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Got it. And then, John, you mentioned that the sale process could be split with Sunrise later, which is kind of helpful, I guess. What could that look like? How should we think about the implications for investing in the project and timing? Basically, will you be on the hook for it? And any contingencies? Thanks, guys.
John Moreira:
Sure, sure. Yes, we'll continue to have a funding requirement, but the negotiations that we already have with the buyer, we would be reimbursed for that extra funding at the time that we close. And, Shar, I think it's important to realize that based on what we have heard come out of NYSERDA, this is a very expedited RFP process. There's actually two. And so we could actually see a decision in advance of us closing the transaction on South Fork and Revolution. So I don't want to lose sight of that. But in case there's a further delay by NYSERDA in clarifying the win -- the bidders of those RFP processes, there is a scenario where we would still move forward on the path that we have in front of us for those two projects followed by Sunrise.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Got it. Perfect. I appreciate, guys. I'll jump back in the queue. I know there's others that want to ask. Thanks.
John Moreira:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Steve Fleishman of Wolfe Research. Your line is now open, please go ahead.
Steve Fleishman:
Yeah. Hey, good morning.
Joseph Nolan:
Good morning, Steve.
Steve Fleishman:
So just -- hey, good morning, Joe, John. So the -- I guess on the comment on the Moody's action, the timing unfortunate. Can you just maybe give a little more color on kind of like your thoughts on that comment? And just from a corporate standpoint, ignoring the rating agencies, how should we think about the FFO-to-debt, you're overall expecting and targeting going forward?
John Moreira:
Sure, sure. As I said in my formal remarks, we pride ourselves in having very strong credit ratings, and that's important to us. And my remark on the unfortunality of it is that the fact that we do see a significant enhancement in 2024 that would get us well above the 13%, and quite honestly, probably exceeding the 15% threshold. But we fully understand the predicament that Moody's they've been in with a negative outlook for quite some time. Storm activity, as I've mentioned, in the past three years, have been -- have created a headwind for us from a cash flow perspective, but we do see that enhancing in the years to come.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. And then the -- you mentioned that you maybe could have gotten to the 15% in 2024, just like what -- do you have a sense, John, of kind of what you're targeting going forward now for the FFO to debt as you're -- as we're thinking about your overall financing plan?
John Moreira:
Well, Steve, let me start by saying that having -- being at the 13% right now does give us a little bit more flexibility where we can be opportunistic from an equity standpoint. But as I've said, I don't want to lose sight of the fact that we strive on maintaining a very strong credit rating. And right now, based on our plan, I do see -- everything else being equal, I do see us getting to 15% by the end of 2024.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. And is -- okay. And then -- so from that standpoint, given that, that you don't -- you not see then any need for more equity in the plan beyond what you've already talked about?
John Moreira:
That's what I confirmed in my formal remarks. That is correct.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay, great. And then just could you maybe -- I remember early in the year you talked to about the plan being kind of -- you thought kind of conservative on interest rate exposure and how you judge that. Just could you talk to just -- I know you had a slide going through some of the stuff. But just overall, how to think about the plan in terms of interest rate exposure?
John Moreira:
Yeah, I mean, we've done a great job in managing to the current year exposure, and we will continue to be focused on that. We are very disciplined in our O&M strategy, and we've been very successful, as a matter of fact. As a result of that cost discipline, we've been able to narrow our guidance range, our EPS guidance range. So, yes, I would say to frame it, when I started the year, I didn't think the Feds were going to move as rapidly as they did with increase in rates. So it has put some further pressure on us, and we have a plan that will get us to where we need to be.
Steve Fleishman:
And is that true for not just for this year, but for the long-term growth rate? Is that..
John Moreira:
That's correct. That is correct.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. I'll let others ask. I appreciate the time. Thank you.
John Moreira:
Thank you, Steve.
Joseph Nolan:
Thank you, Steve.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from David Arcaro from Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open, please go ahead.
Joseph Nolan:
Hi, David, good morning.
David Arcaro:
Thanks so much for taking my question. Hey, good morning. Let's see. Maybe just following up on Steve's last question. If rates stay where they are, do you continue to see the ability to hit solidly in the upper half of your guidance range? And maybe could you elaborate on some of the cost-cutting initiatives where the opportunities are that you see going forward?
Joseph Nolan:
Sure. Thanks, David. So, yes, I mean, in our longer forecast, based on what consensus had interest rates moving and where the Fed is likely to be, we have factored that into our long-term growth prospects. The question is, when will the Fed start to turn the corner, either stabilize or perhaps even go start reducing rates? So that's what we're looking at in our 2024 plan. But right now, as I've said, the cost-cutting that we have been very successful to implement has compensated for that. From a cost-cutting measure we look at a multitude of things, right? We have done a great job in introducing technology that has lower operational costs. We look at on the shared services side what can we do there? So those are some of the items that we are very focused on.
David Arcaro:
Okay, great. That's helpful. And then also just looking out at the FFO to debt trends you've got a couple or I guess I'm thinking of the tax equity payment in 2024, that's a bit of a one-time boost. But then post 2024, is there a trend off of that year where you expect FFO to debt to trend naturally just based on the core business outlook, does it fall below 15% after that or are there ways to maintain it in that rough range? Thanks.
John Moreira:
No, no. If you recall my formal remarks, I said, look, right now our prospects is turn the corner in 2024 and beyond. So our core business is going to be a significant contributor to that. And the biggest driver of that will be the rate adjustments that we have in Massachusetts locked in. And while the pathway that we see to start recovering the nearly $1.6 billion of the first storm costs in Massachusetts and New Hampshire, as I've mentioned, we have about $400 million to $500 million kicking in into rates in 2024 that'll be recovered over the five year period. And then, we will be focused on the Connecticut deferred storm costs. And as we've said in the past, we look to file a Prudency, a cost review, and get that filing into PURA later this year.
David Arcaro:
Okay, got it. Thanks. Appreciate the color.
Joseph Nolan:
Thanks, David.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Nicholas Campanella from Barclays. Your line is now open, please go ahead.
Nicholas Campanella:
Hey, everyone.
Joseph Nolan:
Good morning, Nick.
Nicholas Campanella:
Thanks for taking my question. Good morning. I just wanted to follow up on Connecticut. I think you started to hit it there, but obviously the governor, you're saying, has been more supportive, but it has been a challenging backdrop from a rate-making standpoint. Just how are you kind of thinking through the timing of a next CL&P rate case? And then secondly, just the strategy for deferred storm balances. I think you said that you're going to file later this year with recovery thereafter, but can you just kind of give us some more detail on what that process looks like? Thank you.
Joseph Nolan:
Sure. Thanks, Nick. I'll take I'll take a crack at it and then John can pipe in. Couple of things we're not -- we have no plans of filing a rate case in Connecticut. We actually -- the settlement precludes that until 2025. So that would be the earliest, although not required at that point. Our storm cost filing is in very good shape and the filing is imminent at any time, we can make that filing as well. Again, that's a filing that we need to go through first, a review of it. So it's -- they'll go through all the documents and make sure that everything is in order so that it's something that you want to deal with outside of a rate case. We'll get that behind us, get the amount established, and then that way there it makes for a simpler or less complex rate case. So that's the current thinking right now. John, if you want to add any color, feel free.
John Moreira:
Sure. I mean, it's -- as you can very well appreciate, it's a sizable amount that we will seek Prudency review. Right now, it's about $650 million that we're looking to put in front of PURA. So from a time standpoint, I would imagine that that would take quite some time, probably 10 to 12 months. It's a lot of information, a lot of due diligence that the regulator has to go through, Nick.
Nicholas Campanella:
That's helpful. And then just one follow up on the assumptions underlying the 5% to 7% EPS CAGR here, like acknowledging that you're continuing to point to the high end of that range. you do have the ATM outstanding and you haven't issued a lot of that, and multiples are lower. So I'm just trying to understand, is this like a true mark to market of if the stock price stays where it is, you still see this as an executable 5% to 7% CAGR? Thanks.
Joseph Nolan:
Sure, sure. Yes, we do. Yes, we do. I mean, I'm hoping that the market and the whole sector doesn't stay at this level much longer. Then I'm hoping that things will start to move forward in the right direction for all of us, quite honestly. But yes, when we haven't issued it any equity, it's not a mad dash to issue equity. So we will continue to monitor things and be opportunistic as we can.
Nicholas Campanella:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Durgesh Chopra from Evercore. Your line is now open, please go ahead.
Durgesh Chopra:
Hey, good morning, team. Thanks for taking my questions. Hey, first, just can you tell us what's the expected spending on the offshore projects this year? I think you're targeting roughly $1.5 billion per the Q3 slides.
John Moreira:
Yeah. Durgesh, I think we will be -- we will come below that significantly. I think you recall that early in the year, we moved $500 million out of 2023 and into 2024 and beyond. And currently we are behind. So when you see our 10-Q, you're going to see a balance for offshore wind at the end of $930 million of about two and a half. But keep in mind that we got in a little bit over $300 million in mid-October, so which puts -- which puts our year to date balance net of the impairment charge at about roughly $2.2 billion, $2.3 billion.
Durgesh Chopra:
Okay.
John Moreira:
As compared to about a $2 billion dollar balance at the end of the year.
Durgesh Chopra:
Got it. Okay. And then just going back to the equity question, just off the remaining amount that you've -- kind of the $1.2 billion, what's the -- any help you can give us on timing of how you might execute on that equity?
John Moreira:
We'll have to wait and see where valuations are. But it's not, right now, it'll be over the next several years to put it in the 2 time to 3 time window time frame.
Durgesh Chopra:
Okay. So not this year, right obviously?
John Moreira:
No, no.
Durgesh Chopra:
Okay. Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Jeremy Tonet of J.P. Morgan. Jeremy, your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Jeremy Tonet:
Hi, good morning.
Joseph Nolan:
Good morning, Jeremy.
Jeremy Tonet:
Hi. Just starting off here, coming back to the sales process announcement and realize there are elements that are outside of your hands here. But if we're thinking about timing here, is this a matter of, like, days, weeks, or months? And are you able to identify any material gating items at this point or other risks around these negotiations? Just trying to get a sense for how the process could unfold at this point.
Joseph Nolan:
Yeah. Well, thanks. Obviously, this is on everyone's mind. It's a process we've been working through. And as we've mentioned we have completed the terms with the buyer. The buyer now is working with our partner, Orsted. As we've mentioned, this buyer is very familiar to Orsted, they've done transactions with them. And we just need to see that play out. So I can't give you a day, a week, or a month, unfortunately. All I can tell you is that all of the terms associated with transaction with Eversource have been completed and that we feel very good about that. The buyer is still very eager on these projects, and we are going to work through it. And John and I will remain focused and disciplined around the execution of our divestiture of the wind business.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. Very helpful there. Thank you. And then just pivoting back to equity. Just want to clarify a couple of points here to make sure I got it right. The $1.2 billion of external equity needs, is this kind of embedding, I guess, offshore wind sales price to a certain level, and does this assume higher New York price and success on one of the two IPC adders? Just trying to get clarity on what is factored in at that point. And then just to confirm, I guess, what you talked about earlier, the plan reaffirmation is based on current stock price levels, or does that need to be kind of reevaluated later for the 5% to 7% growth?
John Moreira:
Sure. Let me take, there's a lot of items in there. So let me start with what we have left on our ATM is not $1.2 billion. We've already executed $200 million, so all we have is $1 billion left. And that assumption, and was reiterated on the call today, does assume that we would prevail on the -- that $850 million contingent consideration that I highlighted. So we've assumed that that would come in and we feel very good about it to the points that we've made on the call. So going out on the stock price, I mean, we haven't issued any equity this year for the simple fact of where values are. So we will continue to monitor that valuation as we move forward. As I've said, we have flexibility. Not looking to issue it all this year or next year, as I said, over time.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. That's helpful. I'll leave it there. Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Anthony Crowdell from Mizuho. Your line is now open, please go ahead.
Anthony Crowdell:
Hey, good morning. Just a couple of questions. First, on Sunrise, I think, on -- Orsted last week lowered their probability of being successful on a rebid. I mean, you guys seem very optimistic on a rebid. Just curious if there's any change in your thinking on Sunrise versus maybe last quarter.
Joseph Nolan:
Yeah. No, I mean, we still feel very good about Sunrise, given where it is in the gestation process. And the fact of the matter is, the significant demand and appetite for offshore wind. And the pricing that we were seeking in our filing is less than what the average price was for others selected. The project is a great project. It's got so much economic development, benefit, jobs benefits, location, point of interconnection in New York that we feel very, very good about it. So that's our feeling on it. We feel it's a winner.
Anthony Crowdell:
Great. And just curious, on the pricing, I don't know if you want to disclose it. But I just said the pricing you submitted to the New York Public Service Commission was attractive. On the rebid, could we assume that that price would exist on the rebid or through the rebid there's a chance that pricing could even go up higher or lower? I mean, could the pricing change?
Joseph Nolan:
As you might imagine, this is a highly competitive process. There are other players in there, and that's something that we're not comfortable disclosing.
Anthony Crowdell:
Great. And then just lastly, a whole bunch of moving pieces in this story. Big improvement in FFO to debt we should start seeing in 24. Just when we think about when all the dust settles, I mean, does 2024 look like it becomes a transition year and the offshore wind clears up? Or do you think that happens sooner, or does the cleanup to a fully regulated story happen more in 2025?
Joseph Nolan:
No, I feel very, very confident that 2024 is our year for a transition to a clean, pure, regulated utility seeking singles and doubles and keeping everybody on this call very comfortable.
Anthony Crowdell:
Great. Thanks for taking my questions. I appreciate it.
Joseph Nolan:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith of Bank of America. Your line is now open, please go ahead.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey, good morning, team. Thank you guys very much for all the details so far. Just to clean up on a couple of things, if you guys don't mind. Just can we talk about capitalized interest year to date, where are we at the end of the day on the offshore wind projects? Can we talk about just what your expectations as you think about that new normal that you talked about singles and doubles? What is that parent level ongoing drag, if you want to call it that, in a kind of post-offshore world, if you will?
John Moreira:
Sure, Julian. So the capitalized interest right now is about -- I don't know, I would say $25-ish million. And that's all at the parent company, $25 million, $30 million.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. Okay. All right. I capitalized tied to the offshore $25 million, $30 million. And then how do you think about going forward for the kind of -- that new normal, if you will, at the parent here?
John Moreira:
Well, with the cash inflows that I've mentioned, including some of the utilization of ITC, we can't lose sight over that, that I feel we would be able to harvest within the next 12 to 18 months, that's close to $500 million coming in the door, plus the proceeds from the offshore wind. We will turn the corner in 2024 and beyond. So, I do as Joe mentioned, 2024 is the pivotal turning period for us.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Right. Fair enough. Oh, yeah, go for it.
John Moreira:
And Julian, we have, as I mentioned in my formal remarks, is $1.4 billion that will mature at the holding company in 2024. And that's all back end half year, those maturities will take place June and October.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Right. Indeed. And just coming back to trying to compare notes between Orsted and yourselves, and I'm sorry to do this. I think they quoted a number like $450 million here for break fees if Sunrise doesn't have a positive ID. Again, I'm not sure what's in or out of that bucket. Where do you guys assess that metric here on your side, as far as you're concerned? What's your understanding? And also maybe what are the offshore proceeds assumed in the plan with the EPS CAGR reaffirm?
John Moreira:
Okay, so the breakup fees that Orsted announced on their call, we're 50% partner. So we would be on the hook for that 50% as well.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. And the proceeds just in the plan just to kind of think through super quickly?
John Moreira:
The proceeds from the sale?
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Yeah. Well, I mean, what are you reflecting in your plan as a placeholder, if you will? Right. I know you're reaffirming the CAGR here today, and maybe it's too close to a sale to be able to disclose. But how do you broadly think about that as a big piece of the puzzle?
John Moreira:
Yeah. I mean, we haven't disclosed that, but I think you can certainly kind of assess that as to where we stand. And the reason is that it's a moving target as to when the transaction closes because we still have this funding commitment. But if you draw the line in the sand, as of [$9.30 million] (ph), I mentioned that our total investment was $2.1 billion, and we have $850 million of contingent consideration that covers that balance. So the balance would kind of be in the range of what you would expect.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Okay, excellent, guys. I really appreciate the details. Thank you guys so much. All right. You guys take care.
John Moreira:
Take care, Julien.
Joseph Nolan:
Thank you, Julien.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Travis Miller of Morningstar. Your line is now open, please go ahead.
Travis Miller:
Good morning, everyone, and thank you.
Joseph Nolan:
Hey, Travis. Good morning.
Travis Miller:
Jump over to Massachusetts, the ESMP, and then the investments, the clean energy investments you have planned there. What's your thinking around either rate design or rate filing? Do you foresee all of these investments going into just traditional rate cases, like we've done in the past, or are you going to think about some unique rate design where you could wrap these in more timely?
John Moreira:
Travis, we're so excited about that plan that we filed because it does differentiate Massachusetts as being very progressive in that regard. And we're working with the key stakeholders, as Joe mentioned in his formal remarks. I would say from a cost recovery mechanism, I think it's far too early for us to speculate as to what that would be. We need this process to continue to kind of play out a bit more. Right now, as per the legislation, it's before this council, this Grid Mod Council that's made up of key stakeholders and policymakers of Massachusetts. So that is still being reviewed by the Council, and we'll file that early 2024 with the DPU. So I think it's a bit premature to start speculating on the recovery mechanisms.
Travis Miller:
Okay. And about what's the rough mix in terms of O&M or variable-cost, operating costs, and capital costs in terms of your thinking about that?
John Moreira:
I would say 70-30. 30 be in O&M.
Travis Miller:
Okay. Yes. Perfect. And then real quick on the dividend, still, that 60% payout ratio kind of target the way you're thinking about going into next year?
John Moreira:
Yeah, I mean, consistently we've been at 62%, and our dividend policy supports that payout.
Travis Miller:
Okay, perfect. That's all I had. Thanks.
John Moreira:
Thank you, Travis.
Operator:
Thank you. Our final question for today comes from Paul Patterson of Glenrock Associates. Paul, your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Paul Patterson:
Hey, great to hear you guys. Just really..
John Moreira:
Hi, Paul.
Paul Patterson:
Just really -- I guess really almost -- all my questions have been sort of answered. But I'm sorry to be a little bit slow on the timing here. Sounds like before we may get a final transaction sort of crossed T's dotted I's by the end of the year. And I'm just wondering, you mentioned the NYSERDA rebid process. If you could just go over, again, I apologize for being a little slow on this. The timing you're expecting on that and how that might impact this potential for splitting up this -- the South Fork versus the other projects and what have you?
Joseph Nolan:
Sure. I guess a transaction announced by year end would be ideal. And, obviously, we wouldn't close that until 2024. And then with regard to NYSERDA, they're the ones that are asserting that it would be a very quick turnaround. So that is why we have contemplated this idea that we may, in fact, have not even transacted with the buyer when we already have line of sight on pricing around Sunrise, obviously, which would be beneficial for any buyer to understand what we're dealing with here. So it's very near term -- it's the end of this year, we would be optimistic that we could make an announcement and then a closing in 2024 and then some clarity around Sunrise pricing.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. And then, I guess the -- okay, you answered it. Thanks so much.
Joseph Nolan:
Thank you.
John Moreira:
Thanks, Paul.
Operator:
Thank you. I'll now hand back to the management team for any further remarks.
Joseph Nolan:
Yeah. I want to thank everybody for taking the time to join us this morning on our earnings call. I'm looking forward to seeing many of you next week in the desert at the EI Financial Conference, and we can spend some more time digging into any of the details that are important to you. And also, as you know, our investment relations team is always available to answer any questions that you might have in the interim. So thank you again for your time, and have a wonderful day.
Operator:
Thank you for joining today's call. You may now disconnect your lines.
Operator:
Hello, everyone, and welcome to Eversource Energy’s Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. My name is Emily, and I’ll be coordinating your call today. [Operator Instructions] I’ll now turn the call over to our host, Investor Relations Director, Robert Becker. Please go ahead, Robert.
Robert Becker:
Good morning, and thank you for joining us. I’m Bob Becker, Eversource Energy’s Director for Investor Relations. During this call, we’ll be referencing slides we posted yesterday on our website. And as you can see on Slide 1, some of the statements made during this investor call may be forward-looking. These statements are based on management’s current expectations and are subject to risk and uncertainty, which may cause the actual results to differ materially from forecasts and projections. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any of these statements. Additional information about the various factors that may cause actual results to differ and our explanation of non-GAAP measures and how they reconcile to GAAP results is contained within our news release, the slides we posted last night and in our most recent 10-K and 10-Q. Speaking today will be Joe Nolan, our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and John Moreira, our Executive Vice President and CFO. Also joining us today is Jay Buth, our Vice President and Controller. Now I’ll turn the call over to Joe.
Joe Nolan:
Thank you, Bob, and thank you, everyone, for joining us on this call this morning. I hope that you’re all having a good summer and can take some time off after earnings season. Today, we’d like to update you on our commitment to deliver value to our customers to achieve important objectives on both ESG and diversity, and our progress to close out the offshore wind sale process. Starting on Slide 3. Here at Eversource, we are working tirelessly to deliver energy and clean water safely and reliably to our 4.4 million customers. Our steadfast focus on serving our customers well continues to deliver superior results in all aspects of our businesses in Connecticut, Massachusetts and New Hampshire. As you can see from the bottom of this slide, investments we have made over the past decade are greatly benefiting customers. The average months between interruption has increased significantly from 12 months in 2011 to nearly 20 months at the end of 2022, in over two years through the first half of 2023. As a result, this high performance level puts Eversource’s reliability in the top decile compared to industry peers. In addition, when an outage occurs, the average duration experienced by customers has improved dramatically. Our relatively short average duration of outages also puts Eversource in the top decile compared to industry peers. This top decile level of reliability is a result of years of investment in the states in which we operate and the dedication and the high work of our skilled employees. Turning to Slide 4, on the energy supply side of our customers bill. We’re pleased that our customers have experienced some improvement in supply pricing in New England. Challenges due to natural gas supply constraints because of the war in Ukraine and the global market dynamics led to us winter’s historically high energy prices here in New England. This summer, natural gas prices have moderated nicely, and we’re seeing much lower electricity prices as a result. In Connecticut and Massachusetts, new supply rates went into effect on July 1 and will remain in place through the end of the year. Supply rates for residential customers in Connecticut and Massachusetts decreased approximately 40% per kilowatt hour from January of this year to July 1 of this year. In New Hampshire, residential customers will see a decline of approximately 40% per kilowatt hour in the supply rate effective August 1. As a reminder, we purchased power on behalf of our customers in accordance with guidelines set by our state regulators, and we do not earn any profit from this portion of our customers’ bill. We are very pleased that our customers have seen some cost relief this summer as it helps to offset customers’ usage that is much higher in the summer than in the winter. And while 2023 prices have come down in recent months, we expect another seasonal increase in supply prices for this coming winter. Therefore, we remain focused on our industry-leading energy efficiency programs, and we’re continuing to engage with policymakers to discuss long-term solutions. To that end, in June, Senior Lead has actively participated in the FERC-sponsored Forum in Portland, Maine, on gas and electric reliability matters. The topics discussed include retaining existing natural gas infrastructure and new electric transmission infrastructure needed to connect onshore and offshore generation in other renewable energy resources. This was a very well-attended meeting that included all four FERC commissioners in the state energy policy leaders from across New England. We look forward to continuing the engagement with FERC and other key stakeholders to continue to advance this energy resource challenge for New England. Turning to Slide 5. In June, we posted on Eversource’s website, our 2022 sustainability report, along with our stand-alone diversity, equity and inclusion report. These publications highlight our commitment to leading environmental, social, equity and governance practices. We continue to make strong progress towards our 2030 carbon neutrality goal with a quarter of the emissions already cut from our baseline year of 2018. To continue progressing toward this target, we’re focused on five key sources of emissions, line loss, natural gas leaks, energy use across our facilities, fuel use by our fleet and releases of sulfur hexafluoride that is used as an insulator in electrical equipment. The many initiatives we have implemented to drive emissions down are showing results. In fact, from 2021 to 2022, we’ve seen a 15% overall emissions reduction. These efforts have ranged from enabling more capacity for renewables on the grid to replacing aging leak-prone natural gas pipes to investing in hybrid vehicles and procuring renewable energy for our buildings. We’re also pursuing innovative solutions such as a PILOT project featuring a first of its kind sulfur hexafluoride free breaker used in our electric system. And we continue to explore solutions that will enable a decarbonized heating sector. These include our Geothermal Pilot in evaluating the potential to replace natural gas with low or zero carbon molecules. As many of you know, we’re also expanding our emission reduction efforts through the commitment to adopt an ambitious science-based target. Committing to a science-based target is a best practice that places us among a handful of industry leaders in the U.S. and we plan to have our targets submitted by 2024. Turning now to our clean energy effort. In 2022, we invested nearly $800 million in clean energy, including offshore wind, battery storage, electric vehicle charging, and first of a kind utility scale, network, geothermal, energy pilot in Massachusetts. Although, we announced our plans to divest of offshore wind assets, Eversource remains committed to supporting the development of important regional clean energy solutions. Slide 6 reflects the many clean energy initiatives underway in Massachusetts to enable the clean energy transition. As you can see on this slide, Massachusetts has a constructive regulatory framework that will facilitate over $2 billion of clean energy investments over the next five years. This includes approximately $200 million of FERC approved transmission projects that would enable offshore wind generation to interconnect to our grid. We could potentially see an additional $350 million of transmission investment on Massachusetts issues its next RFP for additional offshore wind generation. And certainly, we can expect this transmission interconnection need to grow as additional offshore generation is procured for the region. We continue to emphasize the need for system investments to support increased electrification and distributed generation to help ease the current reliance on natural gas generation in the region. Here at Eversource, while we’re focused on enabling clean energy transition, we’re also focused on enabling an equitable transition. This means protecting communities, industries, and people that are at risk of being disadvantaged in the clean energy transition. Now moving to offshore wind. As you see here in Slide 7, we continue to make progress in the development of our offshore wind projects through our joint venture with Ørsted. We recently achieved some major milestones with the South Fork Wind project. Construction of the project’s U.S. built onshore substation and transmission cable is complete and the installation of the offshore substation and the subsea transmission cable were recently completed. Additionally, wind turbine pre-assembly is underway in New London, Connecticut. An installation of offshore towers will begin soon. South Fork Wind is on track to become the nation’s first completed utility scale offshore wind farm and federal waters, and will soon deliver enough clean renewable energy to power nearly 70,000 homes. Also, we continue to make good progress on our Revolution Wind project. As on July 17, we received the environmental impact statement from BOEM, setting the process for our record of decision and construction in operations plan approvals over the next few months. In May, we announced the seal of our uncommitted lease area to Ørsted for $625 million in an all cash transaction. Last week, we received federal approval on the lease transaction clearing the way toward a closing. We are now working on finalizing the transaction for the sale of our interest in the three development projects. We have substantially completed the due diligence phase in commercial terms on this transaction. We are now truly near the goal line of wrapping up this deal. We are now making – now working through the various agreements needed to complete this transaction and expect to make an announcement soon. Moving to Slide 8, as you can see here, the expected spending and in-service dates have not changed for the three offshore wind projects, but what has changed is that our procurement costs for the three projects are now at 93% as we are getting close to commencing construction activities on Revolution Wind. John will discuss the path forward toward our seal of these projects, as well as some visibility on the impairment charge on the offshore wind investments. In closing, as we continue our focus toward enabling a clean energy future, our nearly 10,000 employees and I have one goal in mind to serve our customers well, that means making sure we understand our customer’s needs, continuing to provide reliable and safe service, and making the necessary investments to deliver energy and clean water today, tomorrow, and for the years to come. We’ve made a commitment to make the appropriate investments to enable the transition into clean energy future. I couldn’t be prouder of the effort that the Eversource team performs every day, and I look forward to the future with great excitement. Thank you, again for your time, and I will now turn the call over to John Moreira.
John Moreira:
Thank you, Joe, and good morning, everyone. Today, I will review our results for the second quarter of 2023, including our offshore wind impairment charge, and I’ll also discuss our recent offshore lease sale transaction give you a status update and review our 2023 financing activity. So let me start with Slide 9. Our GAAP earnings were $0.04 per share in the second quarter of 2023 compared with GAAP earnings of $0.84 in the second quarter of 2022. As we announced in May, based on our completion of the Offshore Wind Strategic Review and the status of dependent project sale process, the results for the second quarter include an after tax impairment charge of $0.95 per share related to Eversource Energy’s total offshore wind investment. I will review details of this impairment in a few minutes. Results for both years include transaction and transition costs related to the acquisition of Eversource Gas Company of Massachusetts and other charges that total $6.2 million in the second quarter of 2023 compared with $5.5 million in the second quarter of 2022. Absent these charges and the offshore wind impairment, our recurring earnings were a $1 per share in the second quarter of this year compared with $0.86 in the second quarter of last year. Looking at some additional details on the second quarter recurring earnings by segment, starting with our Electric Transmission segment, which earned $0.46 per share in the second quarter of 2023 compared with earnings of $0.44 per share in the second quarter of 2022. Improved results were driven by our continued investments in Eversource’s electric transmission system to maintain high reliability performance for customers. Our second quarter 2023 Electric Distribution earnings were $0.47 per share compared with $0.37 in the second quarter of last year. The improved results were primarily due to higher revenues, mainly from base distribution rate increases at NSTAR Electric, an expected favorable regulatory decision in New Hampshire that provided the recovery of previously expense costs and lower O&M as a result of lower storm restoration costs. These benefits were partially offset by higher interest expense, depreciation and property taxes. Our Natural Gas Distribution segment earned $0.03 per share in the second quarter of 2023 compared with earnings of $0.02 in the second quarter of last year. The improved second quarter results were due primarily to higher revenues from capital tracking mechanisms supporting our continued investments in Massachusetts natural gas infrastructure as well as lower non-tracked O&M expense. These benefits were partially offset by higher depreciation, interest and property tax expense. Moving on to our water distribution segment that earned $0.03 per share in the second quarter of this year, really at the same level that we earned in the second quarter of last year. Eversource parent and other companies earnings were $0.01 per share in the second quarter of 2023 compared with flat earnings in the second quarter of 2022, excluding the offshore wind impairment charge and the transaction and transition charges as I previously discussed. Improved second quarter results primarily reflect the lower effective tax rate, the residual benefit of a disposition of Eversource’s interest in a clean energy fund partially offset by higher interest expense. Now turning into Slide 10, to further expand on what Joe covered on the sale of our 50% interest in approximately 175 acres of undeveloped – uncommitted lease area to Ørsted for $625 million in an all cash deal, we have executed a letter of intent with Ørsted to use a portion of the proceeds from the lease area to provide tax equity to South Fork -- to the South Fork Project through a new tax equity ownership interest that we are finalizing the terms of this new agreement as we speak. On July 27, we received approval from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. or CFIUS that allows us to close on both the lease area as well as the tax equity investment in South Fork later this month or early September. As part of complete – completing our Offshore Wind Strategic Review, Eversource evaluated its aggregate investment in the contracted projects, the uncommitted lease area and other related capitalized costs and determine that the carrying value of the offshore wind investment exceeded its carrying value. The current estimate of fair value has been based on the sale price of the uncommitted lease area, the expected sale price of Eversource’s 50% interest in the three contracted projects based on the most recent deal pricing, investment tax credit qualifications for potential adders, and the expectation of a successful repricing of the Sunrise Wind OREC contract. As a result, Eversource recognized an after-tax impairment charge of $331 million or $0.95 per share in the second quarter of this year. This charge will have no – will not have any impact on our cash flows from operations. We have made good progress on advancing the sale of our existing 50% interest in the three contracted offshore wind projects. As Joe mentioned, the due diligence phase is now substantially complete and behind us, and we are advancing the transaction documentation. This process is complex with multiple agreements that must be completed at the same time, such as a replacement joint venture agreement. We recognize this process has taken a bit longer than expected, but we are now – but we are not going to rush through this documentation phase. It’s important for us to have all agreements in a good place. With that said, we continue to remain focused on completing the final phase of this process, and once again, as Joe mentioned, we expect to announce the transaction soon. As a reminder, our total offshore wind investment after accounting for the impairment charge is approximately $2.1 billion as of June 30 of this year. Now turning to Slide 11. We are maintaining our full year guidance of $4.25 to $4.43 per share with a somewhat different quarterly earnings profile from 2022 due to a rate change, as I previously discussed in our first quarter call. As a reminder, the rate change – the rate design change at NSTAR Electric became effective at the beginning of this year, which eliminated higher summertime demand charges. This change shifts $0.08 per share of after tax revenues out of the third quarter and into the first and fourth quarter and roughly equal $0.04 per share split. There is no impact on the rate design change on the second quarter or the full year results. In addition to reaffirming our long-term EPS growth rate solidly in the upper half of the 5% to 7% range, we also reaffirm our $21.5 billion five-year regulated capital program that we shared during our February earnings call. Capital expenditures total – has totaled about $1.98 billion in the first half of 2023. Moving to Slide 12. Here, we highlight several factors that we expect will contribute to an improvement in cash flows in 2023 as compared to 2022. We expect an improvement over last year’s in the ratio of funds from operation relative to total debt levels. Items we are highlighting on this slide include absence of 2022 one-time cash outflow items, net proceeds from the sale of our offshore wind investment, both the projects and the lease area that will be used to lower debt balances, monetization of South Fork Wind investment tax credits, higher storm cost recoveries and distribution rate increases, and the remaining equity issuance that we have discussed. As you are all aware, over the past several years we have experienced several significant storm events having an adverse impact on our cash flows with a sizable deferred storm balance in Connecticut alone at approximately $900 million at the end of June. Our dedicated employees and the external contractor resources we depend upon to restore service to our customers safely and efficiently, which comprise the vast majority of the level of deferred costs, do an incredible job working around the clock in these severe weather events, but that does come at a cost. In terms of the year-to-date financing activity, please turn to Slide 13. As you can see here, in early May, we issued $1.8 billion of parent debt in three tranches at coupon rates ranging from 4.75% to 5.45%, and we retired $450 million of parent company debt. Our expectation is that debt issuances will be much, much lower in the second half of 2023. We have issued no additional equity under our ATM program through July of this year. We remain committed to completing the remaining $1 billion in our ATM program. In addition, we anticipate raising additional equity through our dividend reinvestment and employee incentive programs using treasury shares, and through July, we have issued 647,000 shares. Thank you very much for joining us this morning. And I look forward to seeing many of you soon. I will now turn the call over to Bob for Q&A.
Robert Becker:
Thanks, John. I’ll now turn the call back to Emily to begin Q&A.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Shah Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners. Shah, please go ahead. Your line is now open.
Shah Pourreza:
Good morning, guys.
Joe Nolan:
Good morning, Shah.
Shah Pourreza:
Can you hear me?
Joe Nolan:
Yes, we can hear you.
Shah Pourreza:
Good morning. Just a couple of questions here. Perfect. Joe, just given the uncertainty that we’re seeing nationally around just the offshore wind with a lot of project cancellations and renegotiations, how – I guess, how confident are you that you can get this transaction across the finish line at a reasonable price? And what does this sort of mean for the growth rate and the remaining portion of the ATM as it stands? So do you see kind of any situation post this deal where we could see incremental financing or an impact of how you messaging around the 5% to 7% growth rate?
Joe Nolan:
Yes. Well, thank you, Shah. And I want to thank everybody for their patience around this complex offshore wind seal. And it’s been very, very complex. It involves multiple agreements that all have to be aligned and we want to be sure that we get the most money for our shareholders out of that exit and we remain focused on completing this transaction. To the point, we’re not going to let John Moreira take any summer vacation until he has it all taken care of. But back on point here, this region is so dependent on natural gas for electric generation. And that shift has to come, it’s has to come in some form of an alternative generation, and that’s where wind given the energy factors in this region, we can – you got a wind availability factor out there of 40% – 49% to 50%, in the winter months it’s even greater when we peak. So we feel very strongly that wind is going to play a major role as we transition to this clean energy environment. It performs especially well for us and for our customers. So I don’t see anyone taking their foot off the gas. The policy makers are very, very excited about wind. So I don’t see that winning and I really feel the appetite for wind assets, although there’s been a few that have decided not to go forward. There are – as you know, we’re out there very actively building. I was excited to get a lot of reports out of the foundations being installed for the new substation. And we are – we will be the first offshore wind company in service in the fall, which is very, very exciting to me. So there are many parties that remain committed to offshore wind. Our offshore wind leases are very, very prized assets. They sit in an area that has all the fundamentals necessary to deliver great wind speeds for any future bias. So that’s why we feel good that it will continue to do well here. So all in all, it’s going to take place. It didn’t take place obviously at the pace that all of us would’ve liked it to take place. But I just want to promise you that we are here at the one yard line and we are getting it over the goal. I think some of the announcements that we made today should give you greater clarity as to how much we really know about this transaction and that this really is the final stage. We are really focused on redeploying the proceeds for a debt pay down, and we’re reaffirming our 1B equity issuance that we provided to you on the year end 2022 earnings call. So, for that reason, I’m very confident that we’ll complete the deal soon. And thank you again for your patience, Shah.
Shah Pourreza:
No. Of course, Joe, I guess, are you comfortable with the current financing that’s out there, the growth rate post this transaction? I mean, obviously you’re still guarding your eyes across your T’s, but I think that’s just…
Joe Nolan:
Yes, we are. We are fully confident in that.
Shah Pourreza:
Okay.
Joe Nolan:
Yes. We are fully confident in that and there’s no change.
Shah Pourreza:
Okay. Perfect. And just lastly, obviously, you’ve highlighted this deal is taking a lot longer to get over the finish line and there’s obviously a lot of investor angst or the contingencies and downside exposure. I guess, can you just maybe elaborate what remains on the negotiation side. How much of this kind of falls on Ørsted, which is kind of out of your control? And do you see the contingencies as being reasonable at this point in the discussion as we’re thinking about upside and downside? Thanks guys.
Joe Nolan:
John?
John Moreira:
Yes. Sure, Shah. This is John. So, yes, I mean, there are, as Joe mentioned, and I mentioned in my formal remarks, there are multitude of agreements that needs to be executed right in conjunction with our purchase and sale agreement. Some of which we do not – we will not be a party too, so those – but we will help facilitate those working with the buyer to make sure that they get to a good place with Ørsted. As far as the contingencies, what’s on the table right now and we’re not here to disclose those components because we haven’t – we do not have an executed agreement. But I think we feel comfortable with that we can manage those well with Ørsted. And there’s both pluses and minuses, downside and upside, and we feel comfortable what will ultimately be agreed to.
Shah Pourreza:
Okay. Perfect. I’ll jump back and let others ask. Thanks guys. Appreciate it.
Joe Nolan:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research. Steve, please go ahead. Your line is open.
Steve Fleishman:
Hi, good morning. Thanks for the update.
Joe Nolan:
Good morning, Steve.
Steve Fleishman:
So just I think you mentioned that the impairment that you took on the offshore wind assumes you get the New York restructuring as well as the ITC adders. Is there any way to get a sense of what the investment level would be if you don’t get those?
John Moreira:
Yes. Steve, so that is correct. We have included both of those components in our impairment analysis. And obviously in order for us to be in a position to do that there needs to be a certain level of conviction and probability. And on both of those, we feel very, very good about. I would say, on average, folks can certainly calculate it, but it is probably 400 a piece, $400 million.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. Understood. That’s helpful color also on the probability part. And then my other question, John, just on the FFO to debt slide, that’s very helpful in terms of the drivers. Is there any way to get a better sense of start and end points there or kind of the scale of any of those drive buckets there?
John Moreira:
Yes. And I think some of those items we have already shared, and they might even be disclosed in our 10-Q. But I would size kind of the first category these one-timers that we experienced in 2022 that we will not materialize in 2023, I would say, at least $0.25 billion – so $250 million goes away. The three categories of those where we were as part of the 2021 Connecticut CL&P settlement agreement we still had half a year of refunds in 2022. That’s been – I see, so that’s behind us. So that was about 70-some-odd million, $78 million. We made early on in 2022, some capital contributions, which we don’t expect to make at least for the foreseeable future. And then we had another property tax settlement in Massachusetts, to the tune of $70 million that will not materialize this year. So that’s that first category. And I think all the other ones, when you look at rate adjustments, cost recovery of previously deferred costs. Those are starting to kick in. So in Massachusetts, as part of the rate case, we have close to $400 million rolling into rates, we had a piece of it that took effect earlier this year, and we have another chunk that will take effect January 1, 2024. So I think if you factor those items then and – clearly, the biggest immediate improvement in our cash flow is going to be the closing of these two transactions, the offshore wind transaction. So those are all the items. And obviously, as we’ve said, we still have $1 billion left under our ATM program to be executed. So all of those items gives me confident that we will certainly move in the right direction from an FFO to debt.
Steve Fleishman:
Understood. I’ll let others take it from here. Thank you.
John Moreira:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Durgesh Chopra with Evercore ISI. Durgesh, please go ahead. Your line is open.
Durgesh Chopra:
Hey, good morning team. Thanks for giving me time.
Joe Nolan:
Good morning.
Durgesh Chopra:
John, just really quickly, you mentioned – you mentioned as part of the impairment charge, you assumed repricing on the Sunrise Wind? Can you just walk us through what the steps are, what the next sort of milestones are as you kind of have filed for that repricing? And then what does that mean? Is that $400 million related to that repricing, if that’s what you’ve quantified it as?
John Moreira:
Yes. So first, let me say that the process is underway. There is a schedule out there that NYSERDA has posted, which could render a decision as soon as October and November. So we expect something to be known by – certainly by the end of this year. So dependent on what the approval is, we think it could be in the $400 million to $450 million range. So I think discovery is taking place. There’s been some requests. So we’re going through that phase. Our sets going through that phase right now. And towards the other bids we’re all in the same procedural schedule.
Durgesh Chopra:
Got it. Thanks. And then just switching gears. You mentioned roughly like $900 million in the deferred storm cost downs – and I know there is a filing coming up in Connecticut. Maybe can you just talk to that? And what is the path to recovery and time line of those costs?
John Moreira:
Well, the normal process in Connecticut is you will commence recovery of storm costs as part of a general rate proceeding. And what we’ve done in the past is we filed for a prudency. So it’s uncertain right now, we’re still compiling all of the necessary data that’s needed for that process to take place. But suffice it to say that you will – the recovery of those costs will happen when there’s a general rate proceeding. And as we’ve said, that will – the earliest that will happen will be end of 2025.
Durgesh Chopra:
Got it. So as part of your cash flow walk, there’s nothing there like 2022 to 2023, and then in terms of just improvement from recovery of those costs. That’s more longer term dated.
John Moreira:
That balance is more longer-term data. We do have some cost recovery in base rates, embedded in base rates with CL&P, but it’s not significant to recover that anytime soon.
Durgesh Chopra:
Thanks so much.
John Moreira:
Thank you, Durgesh.
Operator:
The next question comes from David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley. David, please go ahead. Your line is open.
David Arcaro:
Hi, good morning. thanks so much for taking my question.
Joe Nolan:
Good morning.
John Moreira:
Good morning, David.
David Arcaro:
I was wondering are you still expecting $2.1 billion to $2.4 billion in CapEx in that 2024 to 2026 period that I think you disclosed previously and our returns still at that same level in the 11% to 13% ROE range?
John Moreira:
Are we refer – David, is this offshore wind?
David Arcaro:
Yes. Yes. Sorry. Offshore wind 2024 to 2026 CapEx plans. Any changes to the longer-term CapEx?
John Moreira:
No, no, that’s – no. It’s reflected on that slide that we presented. So there’s been no change in the overall capital forecast needs, both for this year because we did revise that on the last quarter call. But longer term, no, there’s been no capital changes to that.
David Arcaro:
Okay. Got it. Thanks. And then the impairment on the offshore wind assets was slightly larger than the last estimate. I was just wondering if you could elaborate on what might have changed since the last estimate when you announced the recent transaction?
John Moreira:
Sure, David. So in May, we were – if the buyer hadn’t completed its due diligence process, we haven’t even filed for the request for Sunrise in New York. So a lot of things have come together since we made that announcement. And all of those puts and takes have been factored into the impairment charge that we just recognized. So I would say a lot more is known and measurable today certainly than it was back in May. And that does reflect – as we’ve said in my – as I said in my former remarks, the completion of due diligence and kind of the current deal pricing.
David Arcaro:
Okay. Got it. So a couple of moving pieces there, and it sounds like so the original estimate of the write-off that didn’t include a re-pricing of Sunrise or the potential value of the tax credit adders.
John Moreira:
It didn’t include the New York re-pricing, but we’ve always felt comfortable on the tax component. So we did include the…
David Arcaro:
Okay. Got it. Understood. Thanks very much.
Joe Nolan:
Thank you, David.
Operator:
The next question comes from Andrew Weisel with Scotiabank. Andrew, please go ahead. Your line is open.
Andrew Weisel:
Hey, good morning, everybody. First one…
Joe Nolan:
Good morning, Andrew.
Andrew Weisel:
I just want to clarify, there’s some – hi, I want to clarify, there’s some confusion about the CLMP rate case stay out. Does SP7 [ph] allow regulators or interveners to call you in before October 25, or does the settlement supersede the new state law?
Joe Nolan:
Our position is that our 2021 settlement agreement provides the ability or qualifies for that four-year rate review, and that four-year rate review will expire in the fall of 2025.
Andrew Weisel:
Okay. Great. Thank you.
Joe Nolan:
Yes.
Andrew Weisel:
Next, I want to clarify the timing. So – excuse me. Okay. Sorry. I want to clarify the timing. I think you said you expect – can you hear me?
Joe Nolan:
Yes. We can hear you.
Andrew Weisel:
Hello? Okay.
Joe Nolan:
Yes.
Andrew Weisel:
Terrific. Sorry about that. Must be right headset. Anyway, you expect clarity on Sunrise for the end of the year, October, November, and yet both Joe and John, you guys both use the word soon from a sale price announcement to be as clear as we can be to soon meaning before the re-pricing process is complete. Or will you and the potential buyer wait until the future of Sunrise is known either by waiting to make an announcement or adding a contingency to the contract?
Joe Nolan:
No, we will not wait for the determination from the State of New York on that. We will announce once the – these documents as we’ve mentioned are ready to go.
Andrew Weisel:
Very good. Thank you. And sorry for the technical issue.
Joe Nolan:
No worries. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Gregg Orrill with UBS. Gregg, please go ahead. Your line is open.
Gregg Orrill:
Yes. Thank you. Regarding the…
Joe Nolan:
Hey, Gregg.
Gregg Orrill:
Hey, regarding the billion dollars related to the ATM equity, what’s the intent there for how long that would last you to fund the plan? And then is there any update on the Aquarion rate case appeal? Thanks.
Joe Nolan:
Okay. Let me take the latter one. So the Aquarion rate case appeal continues to move forward. There’s I think briefs to due later this month the 17th of August I believe, and then reply briefs and we hope that by there’s a hearing date scheduled for December 14th where the record will be closed and I believe it’s scheduled for oral arguments at that point in time. So shortly thereafter the judge could render a decision. So that’s where we stand on that. As far as the $1 billion equity – remain in equity under the ATM program certainly, we’ve said it over several years. We haven’t issued any equity this year just based on valuation. So the ATM provides us with the ability to take advantage and be opportunistic. So if there’s – we’ll continue to monitor things accordingly and issue the equity as we feel comfortable.
Gregg Orrill:
Thanks.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan. Jeremy, please go ahead.
Rich Sunderland:
Hi, good morning. This is actually Rich Sunderland on for Jeremy. Can you hear me?
Joe Nolan:
Yes, we can, Rich.
John Moreira:
Yes, Rich. Good morning.
Rich Sunderland:
All right. Great. Thank you. Just a couple housekeeping items up front. The $400 million to $450 million you’re referencing for New York, is it a pre-tax or after-tax figure?
John Moreira:
Pre-tax.
Rich Sunderland:
Got it. Thank you. And then on the quarter itself, could you quantify the New Hampshire retroactive piece and the parent tax item as well?
John Moreira:
The parent tax item, I would tell you that it’s probably close to about 100 basis points different quarter-over-quarter in the effective tax rate. So last year’s effective tax rate was like 24 and change, and we’re running around 22 and change.
Rich Sunderland:
Got it. And that, that New Hampshire retroactive piece, just how much was that and is that baked into guidance?
John Moreira:
It was baked into the guidance. We were banking on that. We were tracking the proceeding very, very closely with last year, and we felt very good and comfortable about baking that in. I would say – if I remember correctly, in the $15 million to $20 million range.
Rich Sunderland:
Got it. Very helpful. And then just one higher level question, there’s been a lot of attention on DUI’s draft decision came out recently. Any thoughts on how this impacts your approach on the CLMP front for 2025? Or any thoughts on [indiscernible] there to your Aquarion appeal or just other thoughts on Connecticut overall in light of that draft decision?
Joe Nolan:
Yes. Well, no, that was a draft as you know on July 21, it’s not the final decision. Obviously, it’s – it appears to track the Aquarion decision discouraging investment in the State of Connecticut. We’re obviously concerned about that decision and we’re hoping that between now and the final decision that there are some changes in that. As you know, we will have our day in court, and if this remains as is, I assume that, UI will be in court as well to talk about that. 2025 is a long way away in terms of what we expect will happen in 2025. So I don’t want to speculate on that. We will continue to monitor that, continue to engage with key policy make us in the state. We have very good relations with the Governor, with the attorney general, with other parties. Their agenda – our agenda is very much aligned around clean energy and clean energy investments. There are a number, I mean one of the things that’s interesting with the State of Connecticut is the number of clean energy technology companies in that state. I mean, there are fuel cell companies, battery companies, all of them are looking to deploy their technologies. So any type of a chill on investment in that state is not good for all of these startup companies. And it’s obviously disappointing, but listen, we’re not going to get this hot, we’re not going to lose faith. We’re going to continue to work that those relationships down there and try to get to a place that’s fair for our customers and for our shareholders. That gets us to a much better cleaner environment with investments in that state. So again, it’s a very fluid situation. We’ll have to see what the final decision looks like, but I just want everybody to know that I am personally involved working this along with the 9,500 other employees of this company, and we are going to work through these issues and I’m confident that we can get to a much better place.
Rich Sunderland:
Understood. Very helpful color. Thanks for the time today.
Joe Nolan:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Anthony Crowdell with Mizuho. Anthony, please go ahead. Your line is open.
Joe Nolan:
Good morning, Anthony.
Anthony Crowdell:
Hey, good morning, Joe. Good morning, John. Thanks for taking my questions. I’ve been spending too much time up in Marlborough, Massachusetts, so I feel like a native now. Just I guess on Slide 12, if I could jump on Steve’s question, where did you end the quarter on an FFO to debt basis? And if you could just give us a range as you’re very close to finishing the sale of offshore wind on what the improvement could possibly be. Is it 200 basis points or 200 basis points to 250 basis points or 100 basis points to 150 basis points? If you’re willing to quantify, what the type of pickup would be in FFO to debt?I think with Steve, you gave more of the FFO, but not so much the metric.
Joe Nolan:
Yes. I hear you and I’m not – we have not disclosed that and truth we told that I want to have those discussions with the agencies before I share any of that detail with the broader audience. So we are now – given where we are with the contracted project transaction. Now we’re at a point where I can share some of that information, some of the details with the rating agency. So – and I have a meeting scheduled over the next several weeks to be able to do that.
Anthony Crowdell:
Great. And then just curious on the sale and I apologize if I’m using just a different word, you may have answered this with Shah’s question. Once the sale is announced and once the sale closes, are there – is there the potential for further liabilities that you have to be concerned with or the expectation is once there’s a sale and the sale closes, there’s no more impact to Eversource.
Joe Nolan:
Those are the – what we plan to disseminate once we execute the agreement. But as I’ve said, there will be some potential movements up or down.
Anthony Crowdell:
I’m sorry, potential movements after the close that could be up or down. Is that fair?
Joe Nolan:
Correct. Correct.
Anthony Crowdell:
Great. Thanks so much for taking my questions. I really appreciate it.
Joe Nolan:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our final question today comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America. Julien, please go ahead. Your line is now open.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey, good afternoon team or good morning rather, I should say. Thank you guys very much for the time. Just following up on a few house cleaning items here from the prior questions, just clearly what – when in your forecast do you assume Connecticut Electric and natural gas rate cases, obviously you’re holding to the upper end, just wanted to clarify when you think you’ll pursue those.
Joe Nolan:
On the electric, as we continue to state, our settlement agreement allows us to meet the four-year review period, and that review period will expire in the fall of 2025. So we do not expect to file a CLMP case prior to that date. And if you look at the length of time, it takes in a general rate proceeding, you’re looking at a year. So with that timeframe, you’re probably looking at the earliest date that rates will be changed would be early 2027. And then for Yankee Gas, Julien, we have no plans right now to file a rate proceeding. So we’ll continue to monitor that as we always do, but we don’t have any current plans to file.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. And no changes to your CapEx forecast for now, right in Connecticut?
Joe Nolan:
That is correct.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. Excellent. And then just clarifying earlier FFO to debt, I know lots of questions, pluses and minuses, but can you just quantify the big building blocks as you think about through the forecast period, especially through 2025 here? I mean, I think I heard ITC earlier, can you just clarify, I know that you got some legacy items that we talked about earlier, and thank you again, John. But on 2022, but can you talk about the big puts and takes here that improve the metrics prospectively through the forecast period?
John Moreira:
Through the forecast period, through 2027, which…
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Yes. I’m thinking about not just like 2023 to 2024, but really kind of getting that sustainable structural level, right, as you think about the big building blocks.
John Moreira:
Yes, yes. I would say offshore wind will be the kick start to that enhancement once we get those and offload some debt. I think if you look at the longer term rate mechanisms that we have in place, certainly in Massachusetts that will drive enhanced operating cash flows and the recovery of storm costs. Although for CL&P, it’ll be towards the latter part of the forecast period. But I think all of those items, when you look at the cash flows in Massachusetts, as I mentioned, will – we are putting into rates about $400 million of deferred storm costs. And as part of the rate case, the amount included in rate base – in base rates was significantly increased. So those are all of the items that we’ll continue to have enhanced cash flows and then completed our $1 billion equity program over the coming years will certainly enhance that credit metric.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Yes. And just to clarify your 2024 metrics here, do they benefit an FFO? Oh, go for it.
John Moreira:
Yes. No, absolutely. We -- with everything else being equal, yes, we see 2023, as I mentioned in my formal remarks, moving in the right direction from where we landed in 2022. And I see that trend continuing over the fourth – certainly into 2024 and beyond.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Right. And 2024 includes the tax equity in your FFO?
John Moreira:
Yes.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. Okay. Excellent. Thank you. Really appreciate all the details here. Appreciate the cleanup, best of luck guys. Cheers.
John Moreira:
Thank you, Julien.
Joe Nolan:
Thank you.
Operator:
Those are all the questions we have time for today, so I’ll hand the call back to Robert Becker for any closing remarks.
Robert Becker:
Thanks, Emily. That concludes our call. Thank you for joining us today. If you have any follow-up questions, please reach out to Investor Relations.
Operator:
Thank you everyone for joining us today. This concludes our call, and you may now disconnect your lines.
Operator:
Good morning, and thank you for attending today’s Eversource Energy First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. My name is Jason, and I'll be the moderator for today’s call. [Operator Instructions] I’d now like to pass the conference over to our host Jeff Kotkin.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thank you, Jason. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. I’m Jeff Kotkin, Eversource Energy’s Vice President for Investor Relations. During this call, we'll be referencing slides that we Ørsted yesterday on our website. And as you can see on Slide 1, some of the statements made during this investor call maybe forward-looking, as defined within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations, and are subject to risks and uncertainties, which may cause the actual results to differ materially from forecasts and projections. These forecasts are set forth in the news release issued yesterday afternoon. Additional information about the various factors that may cause actual results to differ can be found in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022. Additionally, our explanation and how and why we use certain non-GAAP measures and how those measures reconcile to GAAP results, is contained within our news release and the slides we Ørsted last night, and in our most recent 10-K. Speaking today will be Joe Nolan, our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, and John Moreira, our Executive Vice President and CFO. Also joining us today are Jay Buth, our VP and Controller, and Bob Becker, our Director of Investor Relations Now, I will turn to Slide 3, and turn over the call to Joe.
Joe Nolan:
Thank you, Jeff, and thank you, everyone, for joining us on this call this morning. I know that you had many other choices of calls that you could have joined, so I'm very grateful. We had an excellent start in 2023, as we continue to deliver safe and highly reliable service to our 4.4 million customers. Our key metrics illustrate the continued strong state of our operations. Our service reliability,, as measured by months between interruptions, remains in the top decile, and our safety ratings remain very strong. Our employees also performed very well in completing significant storm restoration in New Hampshire, following a march northeaster that caused widespread damage and brought historic snowfall amounts that made it extremely difficult for crews to access certain regions to make repairs. Turning to Slide 3 and our offshore wind partnership with Ørsted. We continue to advance our three projects through the development process. Construction continues at South Fork, which will be the first large-scale offshore wind project completed in North America. Installation of the South Fork subsea transmission cable that will deliver wind power to New York, is half complete, and the installation of the foundations, wind turbines, and offshore substation, will follow. We continue to expect that South Fork will be fully operational by the end of the year. In early April, the US flagged ECO Edison, the first Jones Act-compliant wind farm service operation vessel, reached the 50% completion milestone. This vessel, which will be based in Port Jefferson, New York, will play a key role in supporting our partnerships offshore wind projects. Just a few days ago, Eversource and Ørsted were joined by Rhode Island Governor, Dan McKee, to announce the start of construction of our advanced foundation components for our Revolution Wind project. This $100 million plus investment is creating more than 125 union jobs for Rhode Island's skilled tradesmen and women, and represents the largest supply chain commitment in Rhode Island yet. Also last week, we announced with Ørsted, our single largest New York offshore wind industry supply chain contract, with the selection of Long Island-based contractor, Haugland Energy. This contract with Haugland will create more than 400 jobs for New York Union workers to install the underground duct bank system for Sunrise Wind’s onshore transmission line in Brookhaven on Long Island. That contract helped raise the percentage of costs locked in for our three projects to approximately 92%. You will see this reflected on our offshore wind project updates on Slide four. You'll notice that some of the spend has been moved from 2023 into 2024, which John will touch on in his remarks. This change does not impact the in-service dates for our projects, as you can also see here on Slide 4. We've continued to make progress on the strategic review of our offshore wind investment. We have shortlisted final interested parties in both our three offshore wind projects in a nearly 175,000 acres of uncommitted lease areas that are part of our 50-50 joint venture with Ørsted. We are making progress through extensive due diligence, and continue to expect updates on an outcome of the strategic review later this quarter. Although offshore wind may not be a right fit for our portfolio of regulated T&D assets, we are big believers in the essential role offshore wind will play in bringing much-needed clean energy to the New England region, and lessening our reliance on natural gas for power generation, Eversource is well positioned to be the leading electric infrastructure provider, connecting this clean energy supply to New England's load centers. We remain focused on advancing our numerous climate initiatives in support of our region's efforts to significantly reduce carbon emissions. We continue to make progress in facilitating solar development in Massachusetts through our distributed energy resources investments at NSTAR Electric. After receiving DPU approval late last year for the first cluster of six capital investment projects, regulatory proceedings for the remaining five clusters are now complete. We expect Massachusetts regulators to issue final orders on those five clusters sometime this summer. This innovative model, put in place by the Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities, with full participation of Eversource, will alleviate significant distributed energy development roadblocks, and is expected to lead to the addition of up to 1,000 megawatts of new solar energy capacity in Massachusetts. Turning to Slide 5, design work on our geothermal network project in Framingham, Massachusetts, is now complete, and construction proposals are being evaluated. We expect to commence operation in time for the 2023 winter heating season. If the pilot is determined to be successful, we intend to make it available as a clean energy solution for customers. Last, I'd like to provide a very positive update on the trajectory of customer bills. While the mild winter mitigated the impact on bills as a result of lower consumption, it also contributed to a significant decline in natural gas prices that is currently being reflected in natural gas customer bills. Natural gas prices also helped drive electric generation supply rates in New England. And electric supply rates are expected to decline significantly in July for customers on basic or default service in Connecticut and Massachusetts. We will file proposed tariffs with regulators later this month. This will be very welcome relief for our customers following the unprecedented spike we saw in electric bills in January. Thank you again for your time. I will now turn the call over to John Moreira.
John Moreira :
Thank you, Joe, and good morning, everyone. This morning, I will review our results for the first quarter of 2023, discuss our recent Aquarion rate decision, and review our most recent financing activity. I will start with Slide 6. Our GAAP earnings were $1.41 per share in the first quarter of 2023, compared with GAAP earnings of $1.28 in the first quarter of 2022. First quarter results for 2022 include $0.02 per share impact, primarily related to the integration and transition of the acquisition of the assets of Columbia of Massachusetts, now known as Eversource Gas Company of Massachusetts. So, the $1.41 per share in the first quarter of 2023 is best compared with $1.30 per share, excluding those costs in the first quarter of last year. Looking at some additional details on the first quarter earnings by segment. Our first quarter 2023 electric distribution earnings were $0.47 per share, compared with $0.41 in the first quarter of 2022. Improved results were driven largely by higher revenues at NSTAR Electric. This resulted from two factors, both related to the conclusion of our rate review from last year. The first was a base rate increase that was effective January 1st of this year, which provided about $0.03 per share benefit in the first quarter. The second was a rate design change that also took effect January 1st of this year. This design change eliminated the higher summertime demand charge. This change will have the effect of moving about $0.08 per share of after-tax revenues out of expected third quarter results, and into the first quarter and the fourth quarters of this year, in roughly equal $0.04 per share split. This annual rate design change is illustrated on Slide 7. Continuing with the quarterly results on Slide 6, the first quarter 2023 benefits from those changes and the additional distribution revenues at Connecticut Light & Power, were partially offset by higher interest costs and higher depreciation, as well as pension expense. Our electric transmission segment earned $0.45 per share in the first quarter of 2023, as compared with earnings of $0.43 in the first quarter of 2022. Improved results were driven by higher level of investment in our transmission facilities. Our natural gas distribution segment earnings were $0.49 per share in the first quarter of 2023, as compared with earnings of $0.47 in the first quarter of 2022. Improved results were due primarily to higher base distribution revenues that took effect November 1, 2022, at NSTAR Gas, as well as Eversource Gas Company of Massachusetts. This was partially offset by higher depreciation, interest, and property tax expense related to increased investment in our natural gas delivery systems to better serve our customers. Our first quarter water distribution segment earnings were $0.01 per share lower this year as compared to the first quarter of 2022, and this is due primarily to higher operations and maintenance costs. Eversource parent and other companies after-tax losses decreased $12.5 million in the first quarter of 2023, as compared with the first quarter of 2022. And this is due primarily to benefit from our equity investment in a renewable energy fund, partially offset by a contribution to our charitable foundation. This resulted in a $0.03 per share benefit for the quarter. Additionally, after-tax transaction and transition costs decreased by $4.8 million in the first quarter of 2023, as compared to the same period in 2022. Those benefits were partially offset by higher parent company interest expense for a net year-over-year improvement in the parent and another of about $0.02 per share. Overall, as you can see on our income statement, we have managed our O&M quite well in the quarter, despite the storm events we experienced in March, and slightly higher tension costs. Now turning to Slide 8, we are maintaining our full-year guidance of $4.25 to $4.43 per share, with a somewhat different quarterly earnings profile as compared to 2022. Once again, we expect that NSTAR rate design change to add about $0.04 per share to the fourth quarter earnings as it did in the first quarter of this year, but will lower the third quarter earnings by about $0.08 per share. Overall, the rate design changes will have no impact on the full-year results. In addition to reaffirming our long-term EPS growth rate of solidly in the upper half of the 5% to 7% range, we also reaffirm our $21.5 billion five-year regulated capital program that we discussed during our fourth quarter in February earnings call. Our core business capital expenditures totaled approximately $790 million in the first quarter of 2023. As Joe noted earlier, we have changed the timing of some of our offshore wind construction costs. Previously, we had projected $1.9 billion to $2.1 billion of 2023 construction costs related to our share of our joint venture with Ørsted. Now, due to an expectation that the joint venture will be able to move approximately $1 billion of payments from late 2023 to future periods, we are now expecting $1.4 billion to $1.6 billion of offshore wind related expenditures in 2023, effectively lowering our capital projection by $500 million in 2023, and raising it by $500 million over the following years. Overall, we have made no change to the estimated costs of completing our three projects or their timetable, and continue to expect South Fork to be in service later this year and for Rev Wind and Sunrise Wind to enter service in 2025. In the first quarter 2023, our share of capital expenditures totaled about $200 million, putting our total offshore wind investment through March of this year at $2.16 billion. Moving to regulatory update. For the first time in a while, we currently have no active rate reviews underway, and have long-term rate plans in effect for many of our utilities. In March, we received a very disappointing decision in the Aquarion Connecticut's first rate review in about 10 years. The rate decision, which ordered a $2 million reduction to Aquarion rates, was not unanimous. Two of the three commissioners commented that the 8.7% authorized return on equity, provided a very negative signal for utility investment in Connecticut. Due to concerns with the legality of the decision, and the negative long-term impact on customers, we have appealed the decision to the Connecticut Superior Court, where a temporary stay is currently maintaining existing rates and preventing the rate reduction order by PURA. The next hearing on the stay is scheduled for May 15. We look forward to working through the appeal process and believe we will come to a reasonable outcome that complies with the law, is good for customers, and provides us with the opportunity to recover our cost of service, including a fair return on our investments. Turning to financing activities. Since our previous earnings call, we have issued $750 million of parent company debt, and retired $450 million of parent debt just this week. As you can see from Slide 9, we have issued no additional shares through our ATM program, but through April, we distributed approximately 400,000 of treasury shares to meet our dividend reinvestment and employee incentive programs. Finally, as some of you may know, Jeff Kotkin will be retiring from Eversource later this summer. I want to acknowledge Jeff for his many years of outstanding service to our company, the financial community, and our shareholders. I have had the pleasure of working with Jeff for more than 12 years, and I am sure you will agree, he always goes the extra mile. Since the first day Jeff joined the communications department at the former Northeast Utilities nearly 38 years ago, he has been an integral part of Eversource's journey, contributing to the company's growth, evolution, and success amidst various challenging challenges over the years. Throughout it all, Jeff has delivered exceptional service to investors, been very supportive of his colleagues, while providing steady guidance to senior management and our board. It's no wonder why Jeff has been widely recognized as the best IR professional in our industry for many, many years. We are all truly thankful for his devoted service, and we wish him all the best as he spends more time with his grown family, whether it be on the Connecticut shoreline, or in the beaches of Hawaii. Thank you, Jeff, and you will certainly greatly be missed. Thank you.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thank you, John.
John Moreira :
So, with that said, I want to thank everyone for joining us this morning, and looking forward to seeing many of you very, very soon. And now, I'll turn the call over to Bob for Q&A.
Bob Becker:
Thanks, John. Before we start Q&A, I'll return the call to Jason to let everyone know how to enter questions. Jason?
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]
Bob Becker:
Thanks, Jason. Our first question this morning is from Shah at Guggenheim. Good morning, Shahriar.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Good morning, Joe. So, Joe, I wanted to maybe start with a little bit more color if you could provide on the sale process and maybe just additional thoughts beyond sort of the prepared remarks. I mean, are we still looking at three buyers that you can offload all the projects? And then just maybe how you're feeling about pricing. And Joe, the reason why I ask the pricing question is, some investors are pitching that you'll sell the projects at substantial discount to book value. So, maybe just give us any color on how you've seen valuations evolve, even if it's generally.
Joe Nolan:
Yes. Well, thanks Shah, for joining us this morning. We're very grateful. The process, as I have talked about in the past, when you don't own 100% of an asset, things take a little longer to transact. I will tell you that this is very - our transaction will involve two parties. It is very far along in the process, and that's why we can tell you with a high degree of confidence that you will have an answer, or you'll have an announcement in this second quarter. I will tell you that certainly the lease areas are highly coveted lease areas. I think we saw what has happened in the marketplace. So, that, I don't think has any impact, obviously. On the project side, these are very mature projects. These are not just concepts on paper. These are projects that are very mature and in the process. So, for that, I think we'll recognize good value for those projects. Obviously, that's about the extent of what I can share with you, but I will tell you that we've been pleased with the process. We're pleased with what we're seeing. We're pleased with the results. And I think that at the end of the day, it will be a very good outcome for Eversource and Eversource’s shareholders.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Okay, perfect. And then lastly, Joe, there's obviously been a good deal of attention in the investment community on the backdrop in Connecticut and the prospects really for lawmakers to tighten sort of the regulatory guardrails around things like settlements with SB-7. I guess, how do you see that process evolving as the session enters its final innings to you and other utilities? Do you even have a seat at the table in those conversations? Just some aspects of the State have become somewhat very adversarial, so I'd love to maybe get some thoughts there. Thanks.
Joe Nolan:
Yes, thank you, and valid question. I mean, when you look at the Aquarion order, obviously very disappointing, but I'll tell you, around the legislative front, we have a seat at the table. In terms of the governor, I do speak with him regularly. I spoke with him last week. We talked about a host of issues, but one of the pieces that he highlights, and I think it's important for this community to understand is, number one, he insists that we have a seat at the table and he wants us to participate. And he basically shared that with folks that who's better equipped around performance-based rate making than the utilities? We do very well in that environment. I mean, we do incredibly well here in Massachusetts. We have a PBI model in place. We've had it in place for some time. And I think when you look at our track record, our performance, that just - it speaks for itself, how well we do. With regard to the legislative front, great relations with the legislature. We're with them. We talk with them. This happens every year. I grew up in this part of the business, and it's - unfortunately, it's like making sausage. It's a very challenging process and sometimes it's not too attractive, but at the end of the day, you could be assured that we do have a seat at the table and that we are communicating. I think the last piece that you should take away is at that event that the governor spoke at around performance-based rates, he highlighted by name, both myself as well as Pedro, about our ability to invest dollars, and we have choices where we can invest dollars, and if it's not attractive, then obviously we've got other places we can go. And so, I think that he was stressing that point to kind of get the message across to the regulators that it's important that we have a seat at the table, that they collaborate with us, and that in fact it's a fair and equitable place to do business. So, I am confident, as I have been in the past, that we will get to a resolution that is workable and good for all, Shah.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Got it. Perfect. And then Jeff, congrats on phase two. You're going to be really missed, and drinks - unlimited drinks on Mr. Nolan and I. Thanks. Appreciate it, guys.
Joe Nolan:
Every IR professional in the country is cheering because they might have a shot at the number one spot this year. So, that's what's going on there.
Shahriar Pourreza:
There you go. Congrats, guys.
Bob Becker:
Thanks, Shah. Our next question comes from the line of Durgesh at Evercore. Good morning, Durgesh.
Operator:
I think they dropped their question.
Bob Becker:
All right. Our next question comes from the line of Paul Patterson. Good morning, Paul.
Paul Patterson:
Hello. Hi.
Joe Nolan:
Hey, Paul.
Bob Becker:
Hi, Paul.
Paul Patterson:
Okay, good. You can hear me. Okay. So, just to follow up on a future, first of all, congratulations, Jeff again. But just to follow-up on a couple of things. You mentioned that you've got PBR, you've got some experience with PBR and what have you, but one of the things that I think that you guys were focusing on, as well as UI, was regarding this CapEx, OpEx sort of UK portion of the order when it was a draft order and it stayed in the order. I was just wondering how you guys see that. And also, you mentioned the press conference that happened afterwards. How should we think about - I mean, how do you think about, I guess, this element of the performance-based rate-making order?
John Moreira:
Hey, Paul, it’s John. So, first of all, I think the order that came out was really more of a framework. The details are still out. We'll be picking this up in April of next year to finalize and work on the specifics. So, I think it's too early to make the determination. Clearly, the UK model is a significant difference from how we've been operating through the traditional cost of service. And then - and if we were to change to something that drastic, it would have significant ramifications financially and otherwise to the utilities in the country. So, I think it's too early for us to indicate one way or the other as to where things ultimately will shake out.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. So, we'll stay tuned, I guess. And then with respect to the May 15th Aquarion hearing, what should we think about as being - what do you guys expect to happen at that hearing, I guess?
Joe Nolan:
I mean, our expectation is that the stay would be a permanent state from where it currently stands today. We feel very - based on our assessment, we feel very comfortable with opposition and the commentary that we've made in our filing and we will make in our filing on Monday. Our briefs are due on Monday. So, more to come on that front. But hopefully, that permanent - it'll move from a temporary to a permanent stay and until we see the appeal process work its way through.
Paul Patterson:
Okay, great. And then in the prepared remarks on the offshore wind, just sort of wondering with respect to the potential for retaining some ownership of the JV, how should we think about that? Is that a strong possibility or?
Joe Nolan:
No, it's not. It’s not a strong possibility. We see a path for a clean exit from this. So, that's not - that is definitely not the case.
Paul Patterson:
Okay, great. Thanks so much, guys. And once again, congratulations, Jeff.
Bob Becker:
Thanks, Paul. Our next question comes from the line of Steve Fleishman of Wolfe Research. Good morning, Steve.
Steve Fleishman:
Yes. Hey, good morning. I am really happy I picked this call of all the other ones at this time to wish Jeff the best of time. Congratulations. And I think I may be one of the few people that remembers IR before Jeff at Northeast Utilities, but yes, congrats. So, just to follow up on, I guess the question on - a couple questions on the offshore wind sale. So, in the past, you've talked about two separate transactions for the leases and for the contracts, and wanted to clarify if that's still the case. Do you expect them to be announced at different times, and do you expect each of those to be announced during the second quarter, if so?
Joe Nolan:
Yes. So, thanks, Steve. A couple of things. Yes, there's - we're talking about two announcements, two buyers in the second quarter, and there might be a space of - a short period of time between announcements, but both in the second quarter, yes.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay, great. And just on - you mentioned, Joe, the clean exit, which is great. I just wanted to ask if there's any chance there need to be any like contingencies or stuff related to the projects that you need to commit to as part of this, other than just supporting them locally, just any financial contingencies?
John Moreira:
Steve, this is John. Yes, we're going through the negotiations right now. So, it's a little premature for us to indicate ultimately where that will shake out.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. And just on the - sorry, on the Connecticut, so you're basically expecting that - to kind of argue this through the courts and basically address it that way. Or do you - you sounded like almost you think it could be like settled at some point. So, just wanted to kind of clarify that.
Joe Nolan:
Yes, I mean, obviously, I think you know our track record around settlement, and if there's an opportunity there, we certainly will work with any parties around settlement. The Aquarion asset, we've managed very, very well. We have very low rates. We've been making significant investments as you know that I think it's one of the best-run water companies. So, we do see an opportunity. We think we have allies in the State down there to kind of work through that. But as you know, it takes two to tangle in the settlement space, and we need to have some willing participants. So, we'll always work towards settlement. We think settlement is the way to go and we're optimistic that we can probably have some type of an outcome that would benefit both parties.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay, great. Thank you for the update.
Bob Becker:
Thanks, Steve. Our next question comes from Jeremy Tonet at JPMorgan. Good morning, Jeremy.
Rich Sunderland:
Hi, good morning. It's actually Rich Sunderland on for Jeremy. Thank you for the time today. I wanted to touch on a higher-level topic around what you're seeing on the offshore wind transmission side just in light of the latest RFP. Any new thinking there or evolution of thought around incremental investment opportunities over the balance of the decade?
Joe Nolan:
Well, I mean, I think that was one of the points that had us make the pivot because we think there's so much opportunity in both the land aspect of it and the investment around, not only the projects that we were involved in, but the projects that everybody else is involved with. We are very well positioned in this region at load centers, and people want to get to those. So, because they want to get to them, they're going to go and spend time with us. So, we see a tremendous opportunity for investment in offshore wind as it relates to our regulated business. And that's really what our focus. Our focus has been around de-risking and focusing on the regulated assets. So, we do see, Rich, a great opportunity, not only with Ørsted, but with these other wind partners. It's already playing out right now with other wind partners that we don't have any ownership on to build wind and transmission-related assets, to help them inject clean energy into the new England and New York grid.
Rich Sunderland:
Got it. Thanks for the color there. And then you touched on this already around customer bills, but curious, now that we're coming out of winter, how do you see the overall regional backdrop into next winter, really thinking around the supply concerns that you highlighted into this past winter.
Joe Nolan:
Yes, I mean, just a great question. And we've been talking about that. As you know it was front and center for me in the company last late summer fall. And it's still on my radar, and I'm concerned about it. I'm concerned about say fuel supply for generators. We're very interested in - you saw what happened in PJM where folks didn't show up. We had a similar situation on a smaller scale take place in the ISO New England market where folks didn't show up when they were expected to show up. I think it was a shocker, the number - the penalties they were talking about in PJM. I mean, up here, they were pretty significant. So, we are focused every day on what we can do to help minimize the risk to our customers, because although we could line up significant supply for our customers, at the end of the day, if people don't perform and the lights go out, they're going to come knocking on our door. And we are - obviously, it's not our fault, but you get blamed because the lights go out. So, we are focused every day in our energy supply area, in our transmission area, in our engineering area, as to what we can do to facilitate solutions to fully enable this grid to operate during very challenging conditions. But in doing that, what it's going to also do is, it's going to drive the price of energy down in the region, which is what our goal. We want to lower the clearing price in the region so that our customers are not getting the type of shock that they're getting, which has been devastating to them, and we know that.
Rich Sunderland:
Got it. Very clear. Thank you for the time today and to Jeff, congrats, and all the best. Thank you.
Bob Becker:
Thanks, Richard. Our next question comes from Paul Zimbardo at BofA. Good morning, Paul.
Paul Zimbardo:
Hi, good morning. Thank you. I know it's been said many times, but sad to hear the formal news, Jeff, and big congrats. You're one of the few IRSs to have worked with my entire career, so well-deserved retirement.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thank you, Paul.
Paul Zimbardo:
And take care. And to dive into the actual quarter for a second, I know that you had the modernization of the clean energy investment. Was that the full investment? Because I know that there's typically that mark-to-market in the second quarter. So, just want to confirm that you sold the full position there.
Joe Nolan:
Yes, Paul, we did.
Paul Zimbardo:
Okay, great. And then thanks for all the context on Connecticut. I want to check, do you have any revised expectations on timing for any Yankee gas rate case in the future?
John Moreira:
No, at this point we do not. We continue to assess the timing of that rate request.
Paul Zimbardo:
Okay, great. Thank you all. Appreciate it.
Bob Becker:
Thanks, Paul. Our next question comes from Ryan Levine at Citi. Good morning, Ryan.
Ryan Levine:
Good morning. Hoping to follow up on the offshore wind process. So, to the extent that you do move forward with announcing two transactions this quarter, what regulatory or other closing procedures would be needed or any sense around timing of any cash received for the company?
John Moreira:
Sure, Ryan. So, it’s different for the two pieces, right? So, it's different for the uncommitted lease area, as it is for the contracted projects. Speaking of the contracted project, that's probably one that has a bit longer timeframe for regulatory approval. On that one there, because we just - our subsidiary or the joint venture that holds those projects, are considered a public utility company, so we would now need to obtain FERC approval, and that's probably a three-month process. Other than that, it's more - it's the traditional Hart-Scott-Rodino. And depending on who the ultimate buyer is, we could require CPH’s approval. But once again, I think that's very - that's weeks, not months.
Joe Nolan:
And keep in mind that this is - there is a process in place that took place when we acquired the deepwater assets. So, it's not uncharted waters.
Ryan Levine:
Appreciate the color. So, given that timeline, curious how you're thinking about your financing plan. I know you issued some parent debt at 545 basis points year-to-date. Are you considering the convert market given that seems to be open to a lot of utilities in this environment?
John Moreira:
Very good question. And right now, looking at the converts, we feel it's not - the timing is not right for us just given kind of the - where we're currently trading and kind of the - our valuations right now doesn't make sense for us to do that until we have a little bit more certainty and get some announcements made. So, we don't see that in the near term as being the right option for us. But just given the timing, we could be in the market for another holding company debt offering.
Ryan Levine:
Okay. I mean, you mentioned in your side deck a May 1 maturity. Was there any update on what happened there?
John Moreira:
Yes. So, that one, the $750 million offering that we did in March, kind of took care of that.
Ryan Levine:
Okay. I appreciate the color. Thank you.
Bob Becker:
Thanks, Ryan. Our next question comes from Travis Miller at Morningstar. Good morning, Travis.
Travis Miller:
Again, a public congratulations to Jeff. If you ever mistakenly find yourself in Chicago, let me know. I owe you drinks, et cetera, for all the help over the years, but try to avoid the winter times here. Offshore wind again, thinking about the - you mentioned the payment shift there, the $500 million. Thinking about the timing in terms of the close of any deal, does that payment shift save you the $500 million of cash that you had previously planned to finance, or allow you more capacity to invest in other places this year? I'm just thinking through the timing of that, how that affects the plan.
John Moreira:
No, well, that, $500 million was more towards the tail end of this year, as I mentioned in my comments. So, that just gets pushed out. Obviously, we avoid further construction cost commitments this year. And then obviously, the pricing would be adjusted accordingly by the buyer.
Travis Miller:
Okay. And then I know this isn't your project, but there's another transmission line proposal out up your way from Canada. Any thoughts on differences between, say Northern Pass or any of the other proposals that have been made over the decades that you know of?
John Moreira:
Well, I mean, we’re the off-taker. We're taking that power. And as we've always said, anytime you inject 1,100 megawatts into the ISO or into the grid, that's good for all customers. It’s clean energy that will be coming down from there. So, it’s a lot of the same players that are involved in that opposition. We'll leave it at that. But I will tell you that any type of injection of clean resources into our marketplace is a good day for us. It's a good day for our customers.
Travis Miller:
Sure. Okay, very good. That's all I had. Thanks so much.
Bob Becker:
Thanks, Travis. That was the last question we have this morning. We want to thank you all for joining us, and if you have any follow-up questions, please reach out to Investor Relations. Thank you.
Operator:
That concludes the conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.
Operator:
Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Eversource Energy Q4 and Full Year 2022 Earnings Call. My name is Nadia, and I'll be coordinating the call today. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand over to your host Jeff Kotkin, Vice President of Investor Relations for Eversource Energy to begin. Jeff, please go ahead.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thank you, Nadia, and we apologize for the delay in starting the call. We were having a problem with our webcast link, and it had to be reset. We couldn't just start the call, with only the dial-ins working. So we appreciate your patience greatly, and we look forward to your questions after the intro remarks. So, let me start. Good morning. Thank you for joining us. During this call, we'll be referencing slides that we posted yesterday on our website. And as you can see on slide 1, some of the statements made during this investor call maybe forward-looking, as defined within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statement's are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainty, which may cause the actual results to differ materially from forecasts and projections. These forecasts are set forth in the news release issued yesterday afternoon. Additional information about the various factors that may cause actual results to differ can be found in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2021 and our Form 10-Q for the three months ended September 30, 2022 – I'm sorry, the 10-K was for 2021. Additionally, our explanation and how and why we use certain non-GAAP measures and how those measures reconcile to GAAP results is contained within our news release and the slides, we posted last night, and in our most recent 10-K and 10-Q. Speaking today will be Joe Nolan, our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and John Moreira, our Executive Vice President and CFO. Also joining us today is Jay Buth, our Vice President and Controller. Now, I will turn to slide 4, and turn over the call to Joe.
Joe Nolan:
Thank you, Jeff, and thank you everyone for joining us on this call this morning. We had a very strong 2022 operationally, financially in advancing the clean energy policies of the states we serve. As we look ahead to 2023, we consider ourselves to be extremely well positioned to deliver on our customers' expectations, whether it relates to providing them with safe and reliable service, helping communities address the impacts of climate change, or standing ready, and fully prepared to respond to emergencies. The work that thousands of Eversource employees undertook, following a severe windstorm, two days before Christmas last year, working in bitter temperatures up to 16 hours a day, before and during the holiday, to ensure our customers had power, exemplifies the selflessness of our 9,600 colleagues. We treasure the hundreds of appreciative comments we've received from our customers. On our ESG efforts, we published a new diversity, equity and inclusion report, and we are recognized as a leader in this area among the 1,000 largest US corporations by as you saw a nation-leading shareholder advocacy, non-profit focused on environmental and social corporate responsibility, and values aligned investing. We are now completing a new initiative on equity training across the entire company. In November, we announced that we had committed to setting a science-based target making us one of only a few US electric or gas utilities to take that challenging step. We continue to receive very positive feedback from many of our investors on that commitment and believe it will become an increasingly differentiating factor for Eversource in both the US and non-US investment portfolios. Slide 5 illustrates some of our very -- our key operational metrics starting with two key gauges of electric service reliability. Our customers' average number of months between interruptions remained in the highest decile of the industry in our speed of restoration when outages did occur was in the top quartile. Our key safety metrics also remain strong. In terms of our 2022 financial performance, we continue to grow our non-GAAP earnings in dividend by approximately 6% something that we have done consistently since Eversource was formed nearly 11 years ago. As shown on slide 6, our Board approved an additional 6% increase in our quarterly dividend earlier this month. John will discuss some of the factors that we expect will move earnings per share growth over the next five years to solidly in the upper half of our long-term 5% to 7% range. While our longer-term total shareholder return compares favorably with our peers, our 2022 return was disappointing. We understand that much of that is related to the uncertainty over our offshore wind investments. We expect to resolve that uncertainty in the coming months as our strategic review progresses. There is continued interest in both our three offshore wind projects in the nearly 175,000 acres of uncommitted lease areas that are part of our 50-50 joint venture with Ørsted. The process continues to move forward and is progressing through extensive due diligence. We expect an announcement concerning the outcome of the strategic review in the second quarter of this year. In the meantime, our work on the three projects is moving ahead. Slide 7 provides a quick overview of the significant progress in recent months. As you know construction of our first project South Fork Wind commenced a year ago. Installation of the onshore conduit system including cable vaults and town roads and along the Long Island railroad is now complete as is the installation of the sea to shore conduit that will hold the transmission cable as it transitions to land. Installation of onshore cable is now underway and construction of our new onshore substation is on track to be completed this summer. Installation of the South Fork subsea transmission cable will begin later this quarter and installation of the foundations, wind turbines and offshore substation will begin this summer off the coast of Massachusetts. We expect that South Fork will be fully operational by the end of the year. Our two larger offshore wind projects Revolution Wind and Sunrise Wind, continue to advance through citing and permitting, and we expect to commence construction of both projects in the second half of this year. The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, or BOEM, issued a draft environmental impact statement for the 704-megawatt Revolution Wind project in September. We expect a final EIS in the second quarter of 2023 and to have all permits in hand in the second half of 2023. We continue to target a 2025 in-service date. We had two major developments late last year for Sunrise Wind, our largest offshore wind project. The project received a key New York Public Service Commission permit and BOEM published a draft EIS for the project. As of the end of 2022, we had invested $1.95 billion in offshore wind. We made significant progress late last year procuring equipment and services and have approximately 90% of costs locked in, up from 82% as of September 30. On one of the slides in our appendix, you can see our updated total cost estimates for the three projects. The range is somewhat higher and narrower than it was a year ago. This is due to the fact that we have locked in much higher percentage of the cost, and that's some of the nonwalking costs, especially those related to foundation, transportation and installation are higher than we had estimated earlier. I should reemphasize, that we consider offshore wind to be cost-effective source of significant clean energy supplies for the Northeast. We expect our electric utilities to build much of the FERC-regulated onshore transmission infrastructure, needed to connect the offshore generation to load, regardless of the outcome of our strategic review. Those investments will be closely aligned with our commitment to be a leading catalyst for clean energy development in our region. It is one of the many ways we are helping the region decarbonize, and we have seen very significant progress on a number of our Massachusetts initiatives over the past year. Turning to slide eight. On December 30, the Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities approved the first of six proposals to unlock third-party solar generation that is currently stalled in the interconnection queue, as a result of inadequate transmission and distribution capacity. If all six proposals approved, a total of 1,000 megawatts could ultimately be built and connected. As you can see on slide nine, the first approved project is Marion-Fairhaven. Commission proceedings are active for the other five proposals, and we expect deep new decisions on them this year. Our proposed investment in these six clusters, would be approximately $980 million, of which about $310 million would be reimbursed over 15 to 20 years by solar developers, as they fully subscribe to the unlock hosting capacity. Also late last year, as shown on slide 10, the DPU approved the implementation of AMI with a new customer information system for our nearly 1.5 million electric customers in Massachusetts. The DPU also approved our proposed continued investment in grid modernization. Today these investments will enable customers to better manage their usage and provide us with significantly improved visibility into power flows and conditions on our electric distribution system. This will be critical for us as more distributed energy resources are connected to our system, and as more of the state's space heating and transportation is electrified. We expect the new customer information system to be installed, primarily over the next two years, with meter installation in 2025 through 2027 time period. We hope that Connecticut regulators will conclude their AMI review this year and approve its rollout to 1.3 million of the state's electric customers. Aside from these projects, we have many other initiatives in Massachusetts. In December, the DPU authorized a four-year plan for electric vehicle charging infrastructure that is profiled on slide 11. On slide 12, we describe three other initiatives including a 38-megawatt hour battery storage facility that went online in Provincetown on Cape Cod last year and can supply up to 11,000 customers this time of year with power, should an outage occur on our principal distribution to serving the outer Cape. The slide also provides you with the status of our highly innovative network geothermal project in Framingham, Massachusetts, which is now 90% designed with construction to start this spring. Additionally, we have three proposals into the Department of Public Utilities to expand our solar generation with an additional focus on storage and equity justice communities. We are very excited about all of these proposals as they help Massachusetts to achieve its very aggressive clean energy agenda and keep our region at the forefront of innovative solutions to the challenges of climate change. We hope that Connecticut and New Hampshire will embrace some of these clean energy programs and our involvement in delivering solutions. In Connecticut, there are clear signals from the Lamont Administration in the Governor’s Department of Energy and Environmental Protection that they are looking to promote significant investment in clean energy initiatives with both federal and utility support. To this end, we have three-grid scale battery storage projects pending before Connecticut regulators that would improve grid reliability and enable integration of clean energy resources. These proposed investments, which are not in our current capital forecast, were enabled by recent state legislation. We hope that workable regulatory frameworks will be advanced to support such investments. Finally, I want to address power supplies in energy bills this winter. As you know, we were quite concerned entering this winter about the impact of higher energy prices in New England as well as uncertain supplies of natural gas, LNG and oil for the region's generation. In fact, I wrote to President Biden before the heating season commenced asking that his administration invoked certain emergency measures to ensure that we have sufficient resources this winter. Fortunately, the mild temperatures this point to have reduced customers' energy consumption and tempered the impact on bills. They also have contributed to a sharp reduction in natural gas prices, which has started to lower natural gas bills for some customers. New Hampshire electric customers are seeing a rate decline this month. For most of our electric customers, lower power supply costs will start to be reflected in bills in July. Thanks again for your time. I will now turn the call over to John.
John Moreira:
Thank you, Joe, and good morning, everyone. This morning I will be covering our 2022 results, our 2023 earnings guidance, our updated five-year regulated investment capital plan and long-term outlook and give you an update on some current regulatory proceedings. Let me start with our 2022 results on slide 14. Our GAAP earnings for 2022 were $4.05 per share, compared with $3.54 per share in 2021. In the fourth quarter of 2022, GAAP earnings were $0.92 per share, compared with GAAP earnings of $0.89 per share in the fourth quarter of 2021. Results for both 2022 and 2021 include transition and transaction-related costs, primarily associated with integration of Eversource Gas Company of Massachusetts. Also, full year 2021 GAAP results included charges related to the CL&P settlement agreement. Excluding those nonrecurring charges, we earned $4.09 per share in 2022, up 6% from $3.86 that we earned in 2021. For the fourth quarter, excluding these charges, we earned $0.92 per share in 2022, compared with earnings of $0.91 per share in 2021. To break down our earnings by segments, electric transmission earned $1.72 per share for the full year 2022, compared with earnings of $1.58 per share in 2021. Higher earnings resulted from continued investment in our transmission system. We invested just over $1.2 billion in our transmission facility in 2021, compared with $1.1 billion in 2021. Current -- mostly replace an agent, equipment and improving reliability and resiliency for the region. Our electric distribution segment earned $1.71 per share in 2022, compared with $1.61 per share in 2021, excluding the Connecticut settlement-related charges. Higher revenues and lower pension expense were partially offset by higher O&M, depreciation, property taxes and interest costs. Fourth quarter 2022 results also reflect a $10 million contribution we are making to help some of our customers pay the significantly higher energy bills we have seen this winter. Our higher distribution expense primarily stemmed from our ongoing investments in the distribution system to improve service and reliability for our customers. We invested about $1.35 billion in our electric distribution system in 2022, up from $1.24 billion in 2021. The higher O&M was driven in part, by higher storm costs in 2022. Non-deferred storm expense cost us about $0.05 per share, more in 2022 than it did in 2021. Our natural gas distribution segment earned $0.67 per share in 2022, compared with earnings of $0.59 per share in 2021. Higher revenues and lower pension expense were partially offset by higher O&M, property taxes, interest and depreciation expense, much of it driven by our continued investment to improve the safety, reliability and resiliency of our natural gas distribution system. Our Water Distribution System segment earned $0.11 per share, in both 2022 and 2021. Excluding the transition and transaction-related charges, Eversource parent and other companies lost $0.12 per share in 2022, compared with a loss of $0.03 per share in 2021. This change was due largely to higher interest expense, particularly in the second quarter of 2022 and higher -- and our higher effective income tax rate. Overall, as Joe covered in his remarks, we are very pleased with our 2022 performance, as we successfully overcame many challenges and delivered very positive result, for our customers and all of our stakeholders. From 2022 results, I will turn to 2023 guidance, on Slide 15. We are projecting non-GAAP earnings of between $4.25 and $4.43 per share, this year compared with $4.09 per share, we earned in 2022. The slide shows, the factors that we expect to positively and negatively impact earnings in 2023 compared with 2022. One item benefiting earnings is our ongoing program to upgrade our electric transmission system where we expect to invest approximately, $1.2 billion again, in 2023. I will discuss the principal drivers behind that investment, and how it will benefit our customers in a moment, when I discuss our long-term capital plan. We are also -- we also project higher revenues in our distribution companies, as we continue to upgrade and expand our distribution systems. Those higher revenues are due primarily to rate adjustments at NSTAR, Gas, EGMA and PSNH that were that went effective on November 1 2022 and at NSTAR Electric, just beginning of last month. We expect that they will be partially offset, by anticipated increases in depreciation and property taxes. We expect enhanced returns in 2023, on an investment in a fund that we have owned related to various clean energy facilities. Those facilities have significantly increased in value, in recent years, and have benefited our results for several years, and now include in 2022. Interest expense will continue to be a headwind at Eversource parent. It will also be a headwind at our distribution segments. While the portion of interest expense allocated to transmission is tracked, the distribution portion is not and will weigh on earnings. Lower pension expense was an earnings tailwind for us in 2022, primarily due to the extremely strong asset returns that we performed in 2021. In 2023, we expect pension costs to be a slight headwind to earnings of approximately 4% -- $0.04 for the year as compared to 2022. Here are some reasons why -- behind this modest impact; first, a significant portion of our pension cost or pension benefit is capitalized into our capital projects; secondly, pension expense or pension cost related to our transmission segment and to our Massachusetts Electric and natural gas distribution segments are fully tracked; third, a higher discount rate reduces the impact of the amortization of prior year accumulated actuarial losses; and lastly, the higher discount rate means that our pension plan remains fully funded and we do not anticipate making any contributions in 2023. From 2023 earnings expectation, I'm going to turn to slide 16 and cover our five-year plan to invest approximately $21.5 billion in our regulated electric natural gas and water distribution businesses to continue to provide customers with safe and reliable service to address ongoing load growth in certain areas of our service territory and to help our states meet their decarbonization goals. The increased investment is focused primarily within our electric, transmission and distribution segments. Much of the increase in the transmission capital projection is due to increased investments in the replacement of older equipment in our substations, overhead infrastructure and underground cables. This investment continues to make our transmission system more reliable even during extreme weather events. Increased storm hardening and system resiliency has resulted in no transmission related outages through the last several severe storm events. We also are including the early years of a major new project to build an underground substation in Cambridge, Massachusetts where the load growth continues to accelerate. A site-in application for this project was filed about a year ago. We are incorporating significant additional transmission investment in the physical security of our major substation and a total of about $450 million for transmission investments in the distributed energy and offshore wind projects Joe mentioned earlier. On the electric distribution side our updated forecast now reflects the inclusion of AMI in Massachusetts and the completion of our proposed distributed energy projects also in Massachusetts. Earlier Joe mentioned that the first cluster of these distributed energy projects have been approved and that the hearings are ongoing for the remaining five. Our forecast also reflects the Massachusetts DPUs recent approval of our multi-year grid modernization and electric vehicle charging program. Moving on to the natural gas side, our increased investment is primarily related to increased regulations around natural gas companies construction activities that have evolved since The Merrimack Valley incident several years ago. We've also increased the number of projects to harden our system against flooding and added protection on our low-pressure systems. In the Water segment, our updated five-year capital investment forecast of approximately $1 billion is more than 10% above the previous forecast, primarily reflecting the addition of Torrington Water, the acquisition that we completed last year and the additional Water Treatment Facility investments. It also includes about $70 million of per year to replace nearly 25 miles annually of Old Water Mains. Aquarion has more than doubled the scope of its Water Main Investment program since being acquired by Eversource. Moving on to slide 17 which compares year-by-year investment levels in the years 2023 through 2026, they totaled approximately $3.3 billion. This is consistent with the discussions we've been having with investors since last May, when we indicated that the increased investment requirements in our regulated infrastructure would likely offset 2026 earnings impact of divesting our offshore wind investments, if that is ultimately the outcome of our strategic review. Slide 18, shows that some major potential initiatives remain outside of our investment plan. Connecticut regulators continue to review our proposed AMI program. So that investment of approximately $475 million remains outside of our plan, as are some potential related storage projects also in Connecticut. Our transmission system on Cape Cod could interconnect another 1200 megawatts of offshore wind, in addition to Vineyard Wind and Park City Wind. As such, interconnections are now under technical review, by the ISO New England, but we have not reflected any potential amount in our plan. In addition, we've not reflected potential transmission projects that likely, will be needed to move significant sources of offshore wind generation to load centers. We've also now reflected potential clean energy alternatives, we are beginning to explore as alternatives to natural gas. As you can see on slide 19, the customer-focused core business investments that are included in our capital forecast would result in a 7.5% rate base CAGR through 2027. Supported by those investments we have maintained our EPS rate of -- growth rate of 5% to 7% and believe, we will be solidly in the upper half through the forecast period as illustrated on slide 21. In addition, to our earnings growth, we are enhancing our internally generated cash. Last year cash flows from operations totaled just over $2.4 billion and that is compared with slightly under $2 billion in 2021. And the 2022 figure included a few cash outflows we do not expect to occur in 2023. As such as about $80 million of the pension contributions that we made in 2022 and more than $70 million of customer bill credits related to the CL&P 2021 rate settlement agreement and higher than average storm costs. We expect that the combination of enhancing credit metrics, progress on our strategic review, and equity issuance plans will allow us to maintain or, in the case of S&P, improve our current ratings. Those strong ratings provide significant benefits to customers by allowing us to borrow at some of the lowest rates in the industry. We also expect an increased level of storm cost recovery compared to 2022 as part of the NSTAR Electric rate decision. Maintaining those levels will require us to regularly infuse equity from our parent company into our regulated businesses. Slide 21 illustrates the sources of that funding. In addition to improving cash flows as I mentioned -- previously mentioned we will require additional debt issuances principally at our regulated utilities. We expect to issue nearly $1 billion of additional equity through our at-the-market program over the coming years. We will continue to use treasury shares to fund our dividend reinvestment and employee incentive programs. Should our strategic review results in a sale of our offshore wind investments, we would expect to use all of the net proceeds on day one to pay down parent debt. This will create increased financial flexibility in the future as we fund our regulated segments. Moving on to our regulatory update. In the past few years, we have had a lengthy discussion about various regulatory reviews, but this year, that discussion is much briefer. As you can see on slide 22, we continue to await FERC's ruling on several pending complaints that were filed beginning in 2011, challenging the return on equity authorized for all of New England electric transmission owners. On the distribution side, the only ongoing rate review involves Aquarion Connecticut, where a draft decision is due shortly. Due to the capital program at Aquarion, as I mentioned earlier, Aquarion's returns have slipped below its currently allowed 9.63% authorized return on equity. We believe we have made a strong case for a reasonable increase in Aquarion's water rates, which are quite low compared to its peers. Elsewhere, we don't expect significant rate review activity in 2023. In Massachusetts, all three of our electric and natural gas utilities are currently operating under long-term rate plans that extend from five to 10 years. Finally, as you can see on slide 23, we continue to remind investors that they should consider our long-term track record and attractive risk profile in determining whether to invest in our company. This slide shows that over the decade, since Eversource was created, we have consistently achieved the earnings and dividend growth we targeted, while achieving very strong operating performance. We also have enhanced our ESG profile which certainly ranks us among the best, if not, the best in the industry. Thank you again for joining us this morning and I will now turn the call over to Jeff.
Jeff Kotkin:
Right. Thank you, John, and thank you again for the audience for sticking with us this morning. I'm going to turn the call back to Nadia to remind you how to enter questions in the queue and then she'll turn it back to me and we'll get going. So Nadia?
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] I'll hand back over to you Jeff.
Jeff Kotkin:
All right. Thank you, Nadia. So our first question this morning is from Durgesh from Evercore. Good morning, Durgesh.
Durgesh Chopra:
Hey, good morning. Good morning, Jeff. Thanks for giving me time this morning. Maybe Joe, can you comment on sort of the offshore strategic review right, originally, you guys were targeting year-end last year for completion of the review. It's certainly taking longer than expected. So maybe what's driving that? Any color you could share there?
Joe Nolan:
Yeah. Good morning, Durgesh and thank you so much for being on the call. Yeah. So I just will tell you that I am the eternal optimist. Obviously, I wanted to have some news for you by year-end, but this is complex project. It's got a lot of moving parts. And as you might imagine, it's not a straightforward transaction in terms of due diligence that has to take place here. We're talking about thousands of acres of the ocean floor people looking at other pieces of this transaction. So it took longer and shame on me, I should have been a little more realistic on the timing. But I will tell you there is significant interest in the lease here as well as the projects and we are going to get a fair price for these assets. But I think the one thing that you should all take away from this call is that the progress that's taking place on these projects we have not taken our eye off the ball. We will be in the wind business. We will be the first utility in the wind business in a large scale in the US offshore wind business by the end of this year, which is pretty extraordinary. The other two projects are moving on quite well. As you know the pricing of those projects is quite favorable. So we'll continue to drive this process and focus on this review and this exit. But unfortunately, it doesn't go at the pace that I like to go. I'd like to move at a good place, but this is very complex and you need to -- folks need to understand that that any buyer of these assets is going to want to do significant due diligence.
Durgesh Chopra:
Understood. And then just maybe a quick follow-up. The Q2 kind of update on the review what is that due to timing of a potential close? Is that still sort of midyear, or are we thinking about second half of this year, if you do decide to go forward with the sale that is?
Joe Nolan:
Well, I'll tell you that the folks that are involved in the process right now are very sophisticated buyers. So we do not anticipate it would take -- it wouldn't happen in the second quarter, but it would happen third at the latest for. I mean, this would be a very quick close, because the level of due diligence that's taking place is significant. So it wouldn't be like you would get into an agreement and then have that process. That's all being done upfront. So we do -- it will take place this year is our anticipation.
Durgesh Chopra :
Got it. And then just one final one if I can and then I'll jump back in the queue. So a lot of investors have asked about the CapEx raise this morning and how that translates into your long-term EPS growth rate. I mean the rate base growth CAGR is up. It's now 7.5%. And relative to your guidance of 5% to 7%, you're saying solidly in the second half. Just can you comment on that? Are you being a little conservative here?
John Moreira:
Yes. Durgesh, this is John. So I think the wildcard is where we think interest rates are going to be over the near term and longer-term, right. And on that front, I can tell you that we've been very conservative in our assumptions in our plan. Obviously, if those are the actual results by the feds don't materialize to what we have and that will have an impact in and move us further directionally up or down. And the guidance range that we gave for next year is pretty wide. And what will -- as we did last year if you recall we will revisit that range kind of midyear and we'll have a better view on things, but the uncertainty right now is where interest rates are going to land.
Durgesh Chopra :
That's really helpful, John. Thank you so much. Appreciate the time guys.
John Moreira:
Thank you.
Jeff Kotkin :
Thanks, Durgesh. Our next question is from Nick from Credit Suisse. Good morning, Nick.
Nick Campanella:
Hey, good morning everyone. Thanks for taking my question here. Just real quick on the fiscal 2023 drivers. I think you said you expect an increase in equity investment valuation. Just what is that item if you could just help us understand that? And can you quantify how large that is in terms of the fiscal 2023 benefit?
John Moreira:
Sure, sure. I'll take you back. We've had multiple years where we've had pluses and minuses. I think the pluses have always outweighed the minuses. So this is an equity investment that we've had in renewable resources primarily landfill gas generation. We -- if you recall last year in the second quarter, we recognized fair a mark-to-market on that investment of about $12 million and we are seeing very attractive valuations on that footprint. So we have baked an increase assuming that we'll get another favorable mark-to-market. We have done this in the past where we had the conviction that we thought it was going to be favorable, but it's -- over the years, it's been a wild card. We've had backed these adjustments into our plan and our guidance previously.
Nick Campanella:
Okay. Thanks for that. And then I guess just on the funding plan, can you just kind of discuss -- have you kind of put this in front of Moody's, what's their view and just confidence level and kind of moving off the negative outlook here? Thanks.
John Moreira:
Sure. Sure thing, Nick. Yes. So, I mean, we continuously meet with Moody's and all three of the credit rating agencies and we certainly did that post announcement of our win divestiture. So they fully understand and appreciate our plans. We will be meeting with them over the next two months as we go through that annual cycle. But I think if you recall when we announced the offshore wind divestiture both S&P and Moody's did take some action on – obviously, a favorable action. So they are in tune and lockstep with what we are planning to do.
Nick Campanella:
Okay. And one last one for me just on your regulatory strategy. I know you've been staying out on the distribution side in Connecticut. Just how do we kind of think about when the next rate case would be? Thanks.
John Moreira:
On the electric distribution side, as you know we have a settlement agreement that precludes any rate change – base rate changes, no earlier than 1/1/24, okay? I think right now we're not earning the allowed but we're not that far from it. I think we can stay out as far as 2025, the end of 2025. So I think that's kind of where our head is at, but that will – that rate case will trigger recovery of storm costs. So you could very well see some filings that we want to start the prudency review of those storm costs later this year.
Nick Campanella:
Thanks for taking my questions.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thanks, Nick. Next question is from James Kennedy [ph] from Guggenheim. Good morning, James.
Unidentified Analyst:
Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for the time. So I guess just on the wind sale. You previously indicated that there could be separate sales at least the projects. Is that still the case? And then also it looks like there's a little bit of creep in the total costs. Where are you seeing the pressures? And what's in the balance of the unlocked cost at this point?
Joe Nolan:
Yes. We do feel that the – this would be more than to be too biased somebody for undeveloped lease areas and folks that are interested in projects. We had – we did see higher costs associated with the foundation transportation and the installation contracts. As you might imagine, when you move to these larger turbines, the 11 megawatts, it was obviously very, very helpful for the project but it also brought larger foundation basis which drove costs. So that was the issue.
John Moreira:
And James, we have those numbers in the appendix. I'll direct your attention to that.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay. Perfect. And then just on the incremental spend, you guys have in the slides how should we think about the shape of that and the sizing through the forecast when the – lumpy on the transmission side? Is it outside of 2027? Just how should we think about the SKU there?
John Moreira:
I would say the majority – the vast majority of that will happen between now and 2026. Some of those investments can spill over into 2027. The only one that's more longer-term is the – what I mentioned in my formal remarks and that's the Cambridge substation. That's probably a bit longer. That probably takes us out through 2028.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay. And then…
John Moreira:
And then I would also mention – I'm sorry go ahead.
Unidentified Analyst:
No you go ahead. Sorry.
John Moreira:
I would also mention that that incremental that $3.3 billion of incremental investments I think it's important for everyone to understand that two-thirds of that has already been approved by regulators.
Unidentified Analyst:
Yes. Okay. And John, just on the sales side, any update on efforts to mitigate the tax leakage?
John Moreira:
We continue to look and explore opportunities but given how we want the transaction to be structured, it's going to be a challenge for us.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay. Fair enough. Thanks, guys. Happy Valentine Day.
Joe Nolan:
Thank you.
John Moreira:
Thank you.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thanks, James. Our next question is from Angie from Seaport. Good morning, Angie.
Angie Storozynski:
Good morning. So I just wanted to talk about offshore wind. So we saw a write-down of Sunrise at Ørsted. I don't see the 10-K from you guys, but I'm assuming you didn't write down the project. And I'm just wondering is it because it was reflected at a different amount in your books versus what Ørsted had, or is it somewhat indicative of what you have embedded as your expectation for the sale of the process of the project?
John Moreira:
Sure. Angie, this is John. I can assure you, you will not see an impairment in our 10-K when we file it tomorrow. But with that said, let me give you kind of the key drivers of that. Number one, different accounting. Ørsted is under international accounting standards. The joint venture is under GAAP -- US GAAP, and it's a different calculation as to how you assess an impairment, okay? So two things -- two conditions that prompted that. As Joe mentioned 90% of the cost being finalized. Those costs came in a bit higher than what we anticipated and the fact where interest rates are. That's -- those are the two elements that drove Ørsted to take a look at the impairment for Sunrise. Under the International Accounting Standards, the first step in the assessment is you have to assess your future cash inflows and those have to be at a discounted rate. So that's really the two key measures that used to look at this and take the payment charge.
Angie Storozynski:
Okay. Okay. And then on -- so we're seeing a delay in your process, but also a delay in the sale processes for onshore wind or solar assets. And I'm just wondering is it -- I mean is it maybe that potential buyers are waiting for some clarity from the IRS about tax credits from the IRA and if that's the case when would you actually expect some clarity on those credits?
John Moreira:
Well, I think, the clarity from the IRA was effective beginning this year, right? So they will have to issue some guidance soon and we think it is soon. But obviously it's an area that we feel comfortable with based on where we see the procurement coming from and we have convey that to the candidates that we're speaking to.
Angie Storozynski:
Okay.
John Moreira:
But until those regulations come out you don't know what you don't know.
Angie Storozynski:
I understand. And then lastly so there are lots and lots of bills proposed in the Connecticut legislature related to utilities. And I hear you that you're not likely to have a rate case within probably the next two years, but there's been discussion about how regulators see settlements and in general some push for increased supervision over electric utilities. I mean is there any comments I think you can make on those points?
Joe Nolan:
Yes. So this is Joe. Good morning, Angie.
Angie Storozynski:
Good morning
Joe Nolan:
So I think, this time of the year you'll begin to see in all jurisdictions legislative proposals that come out that will cover the landscape of our business. I think in terms of settlements I think if you read the stories there the fact of the matter is that the governor was very much on board. It was his settlement. Two of the three commissioners run with settlements and even some of the consumer reps. So, yeah, there's a different philosophy down there around settlements maybe in Connecticut. But it's so different than any year in terms of what takes place up there. And we will go up and we've been very actively involved in the discussions. And I think everybody knows that our operations – utility operations are transparent. There's really not much that folks don't see. So it's just the first inning of a nine inning game, and we'll have a seat at the table as we always do and discuss these issues.
Angie Storozynski:
Great. Thank you.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thanks, Angie, appreciate that. Next question is from Gregg Orrill from UBS. Good morning, Gregg.
Gregg Orrill:
Good morning. Thank you. Just around the 2023 financing plan. Is it possible to put a range around the use of the ATM?
John Moreira:
What I've been saying right along is, we're – it's not a marathon. We don't have to – and it's not a sprint where we have to issue. So, what we said and I continue to say is, we will continue to be very opportunistic as to when we execute that plan and issue more. Remind everyone that, we did $200 million last year in kind of the third quarter at an average price of $92. I would love to be in a position to do more at $92, but we'll have to keep a close eye on our stock performance. So I really can't say. I'll give you a range as to what we would need to do, or would want to do at this point.
Gregg Orrill:
Okay. Thank you. Also, on the Connecticut AMI, is there anything coming up that would give you the ability to put that into the capital plan?
John Moreira:
An order would be nice. No, I think just given the – we have to be mindful, and we have to be very sensitive of where energy – energy supply costs are, right? So, I think as we are starting to see it go in the right direction for customers. And the cycle is, as I mentioned, new rates will be in effect in Connecticut in July 1. So could PURA take that up to coincide with that? It would seem to be a reasonable outcome. But I think until things tamper down everything is done. The record is basically closed. So it's just a matter of a decision by PURA.
Gregg Orrill:
Thank you very much.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thanks, Gregg. Next question is from Paul Patterson from Glenrock. Good morning, Paul.
Paul Patterson:
Good morning. How you doing? Just wanted to follow-up – can you hear me?
Joe Nolan:
Yes, yeah.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. So a couple of things. One on the PBR proceeding. There was a staff proposal that concept proposal seems regarding performance based regulation in Connecticut that had sort of some UK elements potentially showing up. And I was just wondering if you could give us a feeling as to; A, when you think we might get more clarity as to when the PURA will take more action regarding that proceeding? And also just if you have any initial response to what you saw the staff proposal have?
John Moreira:
Yes, Paul this is John. I think right now, it's still a little too early in this process. To be quite honest with you, they did issue that proposal, which was very ambiguous. So we are working with them to share with them some concerns that we have and what the consequences could be if they go a certain direction. But right now it's similar to what Joe mentioned in the legislative process it's a bit too early.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. And then you mentioned the FERC 2011 ROE proceedings. Do you have any more of a sense as to when we might eventually actually get something from FERC on that?
John Moreira:
Paul, I wish I did. I think what we're looking at -- and there's been the MISO decision remanded back. So it's before FERC, I really think that FERC is going to issue a decision on the MISO and fix the methodology and then we should see a decision on the remainder of the complaints that's out there not just for New England but other jurisdictions.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. And then just finally, Joe you mentioned the optimism that you've had and stuff regarding the offshore wind review. If you can just maybe give us a sense as to the -- if you're a gambler kind of thing, sort of, like 50/50, how you think maybe we might think about handicapping this potential sale is taking place at this point in time?
Joe Nolan:
Well, I feel very confident. I mean, the folks that are in the mix, the folks that have been doing due diligence, very sophisticated players. Some of them have lost out on some opportunities in the Americas. So they want to be in the business. I think that you've seen that appetite. So I am very, very confident in that process and the success of the process.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. Thanks so much guys.
Joe Nolan:
Thanks Paul.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thanks Paul. Next question is from Ryan Levine from Citi. Good morning, Ryan.
Ryan Levine:
Good morning. A few questions here. What flexibility do you have in your financing plan if the offshore wind sale process gets delayed further? The smaller in size, it doesn't materialize. Any color you could share around the tools you have to manage the various outcomes and your latest thoughts?
John Moreira:
Is your question if the transaction does not happen, or is it if it gets delayed? I just want to make sure I understand it.
Ryan Levine:
I guess, I was asking both. Just broadly around what options do you have if it gets delayed, it's smaller in size or it doesn't happen at all?
John Moreira:
Well, we would have to issue more debt. We have been financing our $1.9 billion investment by issuing debt. And we have to -- and also we have we -- the transaction doesn't happen, right? We are committed to those tax benefits right? So off the gate, we have our first project going live South Fork later this year. So there would be a sizable amount of tax credits that would be generated. So that would certainly help finance that commitment.
Ryan Levine:
And then on the offshore wind CapEx what are the remaining drivers of the variance between in 2023 and then 2024 to 2026. It looks like there's about $500 million of delta in different cases. Can you unpack what's driving that delta?
John Moreira:
Well, it's directly related to some of the recent procurement that we finalized that got us from the 82% locked into the 90% locked in and that's primarily the foundation for some of these projects.
Ryan Levine:
Okay. And then last question. What percentage of -- what percentage increase in your equity investments are you embedding in your 2023 EPS outlook? And what markers are you looking at for the landfill gas component that you disclosed earlier?
John Moreira:
On the equity, I would say we don't have a sizable component of that. But once again I'm not going to marry myself to that. If the market is attractive and we want to take advantage of that opportunity, we may issue more or we may issue less. But right now, it's not a significant amount.
Ryan Levine:
Okay. Thank you.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thanks Ryan. Next question is from Paul Zimbardo from Bank of America. Good morning Paul.
Paul Zimbardo:
Hi, good morning. Thank you for squeezing me in. On the earnings driver side, could you quantify first historically what the pension income was in 2022? And what you expect on income or expense for 2023?
John Moreira:
Well, -- what I would tell you -- and it was part of my formal remarks is the headwind the difference 2022 to 2023 as a result of slightly lower pension income to be honest with you was about $0.04 of an impact for 2023 versus 2022 for the reasons that I took. So, not -- it's a modest negative year-over-year change.
Paul Zimbardo:
Okay, great. Thank you. And again I appreciate all the disclosures involved on the incremental CapEx. Could you help a little bit on the bridge from the old guidance to the new guidance? I know you mentioned potential interest rate headwinds but just kind of the building blocks? Because before it sounded like there was a step up in 2026 from offshore wind and you more than replace that with capital. So, just if you could help us on the moving pieces that would be appreciated. Thank you.
John Moreira:
Sure. I would say it's primarily two items or maybe three. The incremental CapEx incremental investments. As you -- as shown on the slide where we show a 7.5% CAGR for rate base growth. And interest rates, we do -- we have a strong track record of managing our cost structure. So -- but interest rates, it's difficult for us to manage and control. So it's a combination of that. And I would say items that we have not yet included in our capital forecast as they materialize will be additive and that will have an impact on growth rate -- long-term growth rate.
Paul Zimbardo:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thanks, Paul. Next question is from David Paz from Wolfe. Good morning, David.
David Paz :
Good morning. Thanks for letting me on here. Just quickly you mentioned interest rates several times in your assumptions. Can you just share what interest rate you have baked into the midpoint of the 2023 guidance?
Joe Nolan :
I would say, we're pretty much aligned with consensus when the plan was pulled together. I think consensus right now has multiple rate changes now in mid-year and we have baked that into our assumption.
David Paz :
Okay. And are you seeing interest rates stay flat or rise or decline over the five-year period?
Joe Nolan :
David, you might want to mute your phone while we're answering, we’re hearing echo…
John Moreira :
Okay. Thank you, David. So, yes -- no, we do taper off a bit in the latter year. David, you here on…
David Paz :
Thank you.
John Moreira :
Thank you.
David Paz :
Okay. Thank you.
Jeff Kotkin:
All right. Thank you, David. Next question is from Travis Miller from Morningstar. Good morning, Travis.
Travis Miller:
Good morning, everyone. Thank you. Longer-term, wondering if you look out kind of two to three years the comments around natural gas supply, electric rates, gas rates. Is there anything fundamentally you're seeing right now either in what you're doing capital investment, operating costs, et cetera, or what else is happening in that region that could change some of that pricing dynamic and supply dynamic?
Joe Nolan:
Yes. I mean, I think -- this is Joe, good morning Travis. So, yes, I think what we have happening here is, we have a significant amount of renewable energy that's just waiting to come online and I think that's going to be the game changer. Between that I think you'll see a big push around storage. Storage is obviously a game changer. When you have intermittent resources around solar and wind it's critical. And I think we're seeing a lot of breakthroughs in that space as well. So I do -- I mean, I do feel confident that we are on the precipice of some, exciting opportunities, which will drive down costs and increase supply for our customers. Unfortunately, you just can't get her quick enough as far as, I'm concerned. But the fact that, this project in New York, will be up and running by year-end is exciting. The other projects are -- they're progressing quite well. Even our competitor's project, are going well, because we're obviously, involved in some of those interconnections. So, I do see it but again, on behalf of our customers, it can't happen fast enough as far as I'm concerned.
Travis Miller:
Sure. Okay. Just a real quick comment. Does the influence of renewables, exacerbate the gas situation, or like you were talking about improvement just in terms of, a peak load time period?
Joe Nolan:
Well, I think any additional resources in the region, coupled with some storage, improves the situation. We are -- we do a very good job here in the region around gas. It takes us quite some time and some planning, but we've been quite successful around that gas supply. So, I think that the introductions of renewables are the increase in them, it's going to help the situation and not hurt it.
Travis Miller:
Okay. Great. And then one other real quick one. O&M inflation isn't listed as, one of your drivers in the pluses and minuses. Is that because you've got, rate adjustments or something regulatory, you expect to be offset, or is that, you're just not seeing, cost inflation on the operating cost side?
Joe Nolan:
Yes, Travis, so good point. So we are seeing that, but you're absolutely spot on. We do have inflation adjustments in Massachusetts, NSTAR Electric and at NSTAR Gas, where it's based on GDP and the inflation adjustment. And as I mentioned earlier, we have a very good track record of cost management and we're very focused on that as well.
Travis Miller:
Okay. Great. Got it. Thanks so much. That’s all I had.
Joe Nolan:
Thank you, Travis
Jeff Kotkin:
Thanks, Travis. And that's the last question that we see this morning. So, we want to thank you very much for bearing with us, during the beginning of the call. If you have any follow-ups, please give us a call or send us an e-mail. And I'm just going to turn it back to Nadia.
Operator:
Thank you. This now concludes today's call. Thank you so much for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.
Operator:
Good morning, and welcome to today's Eversource Energy Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Candice, and I will be your moderator for today's call. [Operator Instructions]. I would now like to pass the conference over to our host, Jeff Kotkin. Vice President of Investor Relations, to begin.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you, Candy. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. During this call, we'll be referencing slides that we posted yesterday on our website. And as you can see on Slide 1, some of the statements made during this investor call may be forward-looking as defined within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risk and uncertainty, which may cause the actual results to differ materially from forecasts and projections. These factors are set forth in the news release issued yesterday afternoon. Additional information about the various factors that may cause actual results to differ can be found in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2021, and our Form 10-Q for the 3 months ended June 30, 2022. Additionally, our explanation of how and why we use certain non-GAAP measures and how those measures reconcile to GAAP results is contained within our news release and the slides we posted last night and in our most recent 10-K and 10-Q. Speaking today will be Joe Nolan, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and John Moreira, our Executive Vice President and CFO. Also joining us today is our new Director of Investor Relations, Bob Becker. Now I will turn to Slide 2, and turn over the call to Joe.
Joseph Nolan:
Thank you, Jeff, and thank you, everyone, for joining us on this call this morning. I will provide you updates on the energy supply challenges facing New England this winter and the strategic review of offshore wind investments. Before turning over the call to John [Technical Difficulty] to review the quarter in various regulatory proceedings. But first, I will review our operating performance. We've had an excellent first 9 months of 2022 with our reliability indices remaining among the industry's best. Our safety ratings strong and our diversity and sustainability metrics looking quite favorable compared with our goals and our peers. Response time to natural gas service calls, a key safety and performance metric for our gas distribution business continues to be excellent. Our sustainability ratings at MSCI and Sustainalytics continue to be well within the top quartile among our peers, and we are in the final stages of reviewing how to best move forward with establishing aggressive goals for greenhouse gas reduction, including potentially setting a science-based target, something that only a handful of U.S. utilities are undertaking. While we continue to improve the service we are delivering to our 4.4 million customers. We understand that our customers have a significant concern over this winter's energy costs. Not only a fossil fuel prices much higher than they were a year ago. Our region continues to be challenged by the combination of heavy reliance on natural gas generation and inadequate infrastructure to supply sufficient natural gas to that generation during cold winter months. This [indiscernible] look particularly challenging for New England, given the disruptions in the global energy markets caused by the war in Ukraine. New England's access to reported LNG will be even more limited than in the past years. ISO New England has indicated that while our supply should be adequate in a moderate a normal winter, they may be challenged during a prolonged period of bitterly cold weather. Last week, I wrote to President Biden, asking him to consider a number of measures to help New England through the winter. They included emergency audits under the Federal [indiscernible] Power Act in the Natural Gas Policy Act in emergency authority under the Defense Production Act to ensure adequate energy supplies for New England. The letter also recommended considerations of a waiver under the [indiscernible] Act to ease the optics obstacles that effectively prevent the shipping of LNG between U.S. ports in New England. I also asked President Biden to direct the Secretary of Energy to convene all relevant parties, to develop a plan to ensure the region is ready to meet the challenges 1 or more extreme winter weather events would present, using both the authorities available to the market participants in the federal government's emergency authorities. Many points in my letter were consistent with the New England [indiscernible] governance sent to Energy Secretary Grand Home in late July, the need for action now is compelling. Many of the solutions require advanced planning because they may require actions by regulators, finding new resources, chartering vessels and arranging for additional fuel deliveries. As a T&D utility with no generation other than 70 megawatts of solar, we are very limited in terms of how we influence the wintertime supply-demand equation. In those areas, we can influence. We've done a tremendous amount. We have invested billions of dollars our transmission and distribution systems to alleviate bottlenecks. Our nationally recognized energy efficiency programs have helped customers become more -- much more efficient with their energy consumption. We offer our customers innovative payment options, including year-round budget billing options. But this winter is nevertheless promises to be expensive for those electric customers who do not lock in multiyear contracts in the past years. In New Hampshire, our standard offer our default service rate rose in August from $0.11 to $0.22 per kilowatt hour. Similar levels are likely in Massachusetts and Connecticut beginning in January. For our natural gas customers, residential heating costs in total bills will be up just over 20% on average compared with last winter, somewhat less than that in Connecticut. Well, any increases in these times is difficult for our customers, we are looking at much more significant increases a month or 2 ago before the recent pullback in natural gas prices. Turning to Slide 3. I will provide you with an update on our offshore wind partnership with Orsted. As you know, construction of our first project, , commenced early this year. Installation of the onshore conduit system including cable vaults in town Roads and along the Long Island railroad right-of-way is nearly complete and ahead of schedule. Construction of our new onshore substation is on schedule, progressing well. It should be complete in the second quarter of 2023. In water construction, we'll begin this month using horizontal directional drilling to install a conduit 80 feet below the beach that will extend offshore. The transmission cable will be installed through that conduit next year to move energy from 12 offshore wind turbines to a new substation and into the Long Island Power Grid. Installation of the largest components including the foundations, turbines and offshore substations will begin next summer off the coast of Massachusetts. We also continue to progress well on our larger offshore wind projects. The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management issued a draft environmental impact statement for the 704-megawatt Revolution Wind project in September. We expect the final EIS in the second quarter of 2023, and to have all permits in hand in the second half of 2023. We continue to target a 2025 in-service date. On Sunrise, our largest offshore project, we filed a joint settlement in September with the New York Public Service Commission. The settlement includes proposed mitigation for certain environmental, community and construction impacts associated with constructing the project. The joint proposal was signed by the New York Department of Public Service environmental conservation, transportation and state as well as the offers of agriculture end markets in the Long Island Commercial Fisheries Association. We also continue to target a 2025 in-service date for Sunrise Wind. We are also making significant progress on our strategic review. That review covers 3 projects I just mentioned which will generate approximately 1,760 megawatts once in service as well as up to 175,000 acres of offshore wind lease series, where we and Orsted have rights to build additional offshore wind facilities. We're now engaged with a number of potential buyers for our 50% ownership interest in our offshore wind joint venture. Orsted is actively supporting the process. It is very possible that we contract with 1 buyer, 3 projects and another for the open acreage. We do not expect to have any incremental news on our strategic review before the EEI conference, but we may by year-end. We remain very big fans of offshore wind and expect it to become a critical energy resource for the Northeast, particularly in the winter when wind speeds are higher and more consistent. You can see on Slide 4, how much has been awarded to date in New England, in New York and how much still needs to be secured. Contingent on the outcome of our review, I expect that our principal role in the future will be that of a regulated transmission provider integrating this valuable resource into our region's grid rather than a turbine owner. Thanks again for your time. I will now turn the call over to John Moreira.
John Moreira:
Thank you, Joe, and good morning, everyone. This morning, I will review our earnings results for the third quarter of 2022, discuss recent regulatory developments and review our finance and activity. I will start with Slide 5. Our GAAP earnings were $1 per share in the third quarter of 2022 compared with earnings of $0.82 in the third quarter of 2021. Third quarter results in 2021 included a charge of $0.19 per share to reflect last year's settlement agreement that resolved a number of regulatory issues at Connecticut Light and Power. Both years included the impact of $0.01 per share of charges related to transaction and transition costs associated with the former Columbia Gas asset acquisition. Excluding these charges, we earned $1.01 per share in the third quarter of 2022 compared with earnings of $1.02 per share in the third quarter of 2021. For the first 9 months of 2022, we earned $3.13 per share on a GAAP basis compared with earnings of $2.65 per share in the first 9 months of 2021. Excluding charges related to transaction and transition and the CL&P settlement charges that we recorded last year. We earned $3.17 per share in the first 9 months of 2022 compared with earnings of $2.95 per share in the first 9 months of 2021. Looking at additional details on the third quarter earnings by segment, starting with our electric transmission segment, which earned $0.44 per share in the third quarter of 2022 compared with earnings of $0.40 per share in the third quarter of 2021. Improved results were driven by a large level of higher investments in our transmission facilities. Moving on to our electric distribution segment, which earned $0.65 on per share in the third quarter of 2022 compared with earnings of $0.62 per share in the third quarter of 2021. Again, excluding the settlement charges I previously talked about. The improved earnings were driven largely by higher revenues and lower pension costs, partially offset by higher O&M, property taxes and depreciation expense. Our natural gas distribution segment lost $0.07 per share in the third quarter of 2022 compared with a loss of $0.06 per share in the third quarter of 2021. The increased losses were due to a higher nontrack O&M, property taxes, depreciation and interest costs, which was partly offset by higher revenues and lower pension costs, primarily at Yankee Gas. Our water segment earned $0.05 per share in the third quarter of 2022, the same as the third quarter of 2021. Eversource parent and other companies lost $0.06 per share in the third quarter of 2022 compared with earnings of $0.01 per share in the third quarter of 2021, excluding the transaction and transition costs that I mentioned earlier. The decline was due largely to 2 factors
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you, John, and I'm going to return the call to to remind you how to enter your questions. Candice?
A - Jeffrey Kotkin:
First question this morning is from Shar from Guggenheim.
Shahriar Pourreza:
So Joe, just on the offshore wind sale process, you indicated -- I think on prior calls, you were working on sort of the tax leakage offsets. Anything you have -- anything you've been able to identify there so far? And are we still thinking 100% sale, the leases in the projects, irrespective of what stages they're in, in their construction cycle, so no build own transfer scenarios?
Joseph Nolan:
Yes. So we're definitely looking at a complete exit of the projects. In terms of the tax, I'm going to turn that over to John Moreira that he's better equipped to answer that question.
John Moreira:
Shar, so as I continue to communicate, we're looking at every alternative to minimize any tax leakage. I think at this point, we're still going through those assessments working with our advisors. I think it's a little premature. But we do have a plan to mitigate as much of that tax leakage as possible.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Okay. Perfect. And then, Joe, you previously indicated that you need to find roughly $3 billion of spend to offset the loss of the wind earnings. If I recall, correctly, you had about $1.5 billion that's been identified. So we're simply stepping up here to having a line of sight on roughly $2.4 billion out of the $3 billion with the DER spending you just released, or is there some overlap? And I guess where could we see the remaining opportunities, especially as we're thinking about this in the context of your overall growth guide as we look ahead to the sale and the next roll forward?
Joseph Nolan:
Yes. Well, good news is that number, we've got up to about $2.5 billion. John is going to fill in some of the details on how are we going to fill that in. So John, [indiscernible]
John Moreira:
Yes. Shar, once again, we've mentioned about -- we've quantified and put on the table $1.5 billion of that $3 billion number that we have shared with you. So let me run -- take you through that. So $1 billion is AMI. And in my formal remarks, you heard me say that we do expect a decision now in Massachusetts by the end of this year, and Connecticut probably late this year or early 2023. So that's about $1 billion, $1.1 billion, okay? And then we also quantify it for you all, about $0.5 billion of transmission interconnection, of which we already have approval for $200 million of that. And today, we announced close to $900 million that we are very excited about to address this burning issue in Massachusetts to enable solar generation to connect into our grid. Those investment opportunities will enable up to 1 gigawatt of generation to connect into our infrastructure, both transmission and distribution. So right now, we have about 6 cluster projects that we have before the DPU. That amounts to that $900 million. And as I said in my home remarks primarily in Southeastern Massachusetts, where we are stretched from a capacity standpoint. So that is -- from a regulatory standpoint, that's well on its way. And we do have some -- we've been working, we think it's a very creative proposal that we put in front of the regulators to facilitate this need. So we're very excited about that. So that we see materializing between -- over the next 4 to 5 years, and we expect that, that full infrastructure will be in place by 2026 to allow for at least of that 1 gigawatt that I mentioned.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Got it. Terrific. So I guess the key message is you're chopping wood on that $3 billion that you're looking to backfill. So that's good.
John Moreira:
Absolutely. I feel very -- I feel highly confident that once we update our 5-year capital plan that we'll share with you in February that we will get to that number.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Next question is from David Arcaro from Morgan Stanley.
David Arcaro:
Maybe following up on a couple of the topics that Shar raised. On the offshore wind, strategic review process. Could you just give an update on what interests you're seeing, whether anything has changed with the rising rate backdrop and overall kind of number and type of potential interested parties there?
Joseph Nolan:
Yes. So we've had -- the process is going on very well. We have several highly interested parties, and the interest rate has not caused any concern for them, and we're very, very optimistic and continue to be optimistic on the process.
David Arcaro:
Okay. Got it. And then on the level of cost that have been locked in, it looked like the percentage hasn't changed since the last quarter. What are you seeing in terms of the inflation in offshore wind kind of construction costs lately and your current thinking around willingness to lock in additional costs with the strategic review going on?
Joseph Nolan:
We are in the 80% range -- low 80, the contracts that we're talking about are not ones that I'm particularly worried about around costs or those types of things. And we do have competition in that space. So we're going to be strategic in any type of contracting that we do. But I feel very good about -- I have eyes on the remaining, say, 15% to 18%, and I'm not concerned about it.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Next question is from Steve Fleishman from Wolfe.
Steven Fleishman:
So just we're getting near the end on the Massachusetts case. Could you just give us a sense of just how you're feeling about getting a reasonable outcome there?
Joseph Nolan:
Yes. Steve, it's Joe. We feel very good about it. We had some very, very good hearings. We had a lot of good discovery, a lot of good exchanges. And we have been very actively engaged with multiple parties. So we are still extremely optimistic for a very favorable outcome in that proceeding. It's not a -- it wasn't a big number in terms of increases. And I think that folks recognize the extraordinary job we do for our customers see our Massachusetts. So we continue to be very optimistic.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay. Great. And then the -- maybe just in terms of asking a question from the beginning a little different way. Just when you announced the offshore wind sale, you talked about that net income that you'd hoped for in '26 and be able to kind of take the proceeds and get to that level with investment in the regulated business. And so obviously, you're starting to get the investments all lined up here. But just overall, how are you feeling about kind of getting to the kind of end game whatever your growth rate was plus the incremental net income?
John Moreira:
Yes. Yes, good question. We are working on an update on our revised 5-year forecast taken into account -- or layering into our plan, the additional capital that we need to execute on for the reasons that I've stated. So we feel very confident that we'll be able to get into our zone of guidance that you all would expect from us. So I'm feeling very good about it.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Next question is from Nicholas Campanella from Credit Suisse.
Nicholas Campanella:
I guess, Joe, just on the Biden letter and the winter scenario. Obviously, the fact that you're right in this letter, it's a serious situation. And I just wanted to ask, when you think about the ability to kind of deploy capital at the pace that you are in the current plan, does it change your thinking at all and the ability to spend capital with the pressure in customer bills from the fuel lines.
Joseph Nolan:
Yes. No. I mean, I think the investments that we want to make around transmission to unlock and tap into some renewable resources that cannot get on to the grid in a way that's meaningful for the operator. So that's something that will only reduce customers' cost at the end of the day, if we're able to get at some of those renewables. So I don't think that, that would have an adverse impact on our customers. So no, I don't feel it's going to impact it.
Nicholas Campanella:
And then on IRA, good to see no AMT impact. And I think you're saying kind of cash uplift in the slides here. So can you maybe just update us on what your FFO to is in a post IRA world versus kind of where it is today?
John Moreira:
It will head in the right direction. There's no doubt about it with the IRA given the deployment of our solar program in Massachusetts, where we get the ability to get that those tax benefits upfront and then as required flow it back to customers over time. So we do see an uptick in our FFO to debt.
Nicholas Campanella:
Okay. So just directionally positive.
Joseph Nolan:
Yes.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Next question is from Durgesh from Evercore.
Durgesh Chopra:
Guys, what are sort of the key dates for us to watch on these 6 DER-related projects in Massachusetts? I believe you said one of them is under consideration for approval here shortly. Just if you can give us a time line for us to kind of track that would be really helpful, for regulatory approval.
John Moreira:
Sure. Durgesh, this is John. So we have filed all 6 proposals individually. And we expect the first one, which is about -- let's call it, $150 million opportunity. That's been -- on the Slide 8, it's the project. So we expect to see a decision from the DPU late by the end of the year. And then the remaining 5 will trickle in over 2023 .
Durgesh Chopra:
Got it. So basically, by the time of your fourth quarter update, CapEx update, you would have received a decision on one of the projects, the remaining 5 will be layered in sometime next year?
John Moreira:
That's correct. That's correct. And the construct, as I mentioned, is basically the same for all 6 projects. Obviously, there's varying degrees of investment for these 6, but the construct that we filed for is very consistent. .
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Next question is from Jeremy Tonet [ph] from JPMorgan.
Unidentified Analyst:
Just wanted to touch base on the offshore wind process a little bit more. And just want to see how is the process tracking toward that potential year-end announcement? Just trying to look at the language here is your slide language pointing to a slightly longer process versus prior expectations? Just trying to parse through this end of the year as you put it in the slides.
Joseph Nolan:
Sure. Yes, it's Joe. We're working very hot at this right now. We've got very interested . We would like to be able to have an announcement by year-end, but there's no guarantees around that. But I would tell you that there were a very strong group of buyers that are in there, and we feel very, very good about the process. So we're optimistic.
Unidentified Analyst:
Got it. That's helpful. And then just pivoting, could you frame the impact of higher interest rate expense on growth within your EPS CAGR? Just wondering what levers are left to offset this higher expense? And how much of a headwind could it be? Same thing for pension, overall.
John Moreira:
Yes. Yes, it will be a headwind, as you would expect. But we're on it, and we are working to mitigate that impact. Obviously, it's uncertain -- the time frame, and this higher interest rate environment will continue. But we -- as I mentioned earlier, we're focused on developing our plan for next year, and I feel very good that we'll have opportunities to mitigate that headwind. .
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Next question is from Ross Fowler from UBS.
Ross Fowler:
All my questions on offshore would have kind of been answered. So maybe we can look back to Joe, your comments at the front of the call about bill pressure across this winter. You said bills would be up an average of 20%, and that's given the pullback in natural gas. It's been in the 70s, and the way it went lately. So we had some good weather, too, which is nice. But growing up there, it's going to get cold at some point. So can you just remind us how you're hedged across the winter for that natural gas on price, like through January, February and March? And then maybe it's not even necessarily about hedging and price given your commentary, but more about even getting supply should it get colder than normal across this winter. So just maybe frame that risk for us a little bit more.
Joseph Nolan:
Sure, sure. Let's focus first on our gas business. We have -- we are hedged. We have LNG. We keep roughly 20-day supply available of LNG at our facilities. We have multiple LNG facilities. So I feel very good about the supply and the natural gas situation for Eversource customs. This went to. I have no concern around that. We begin planning for that in putting resources into storage starting May of the -- in the spring time we start. And we fill all our tanks and we're in very, very good shape this year for that. I think what I was -- what I'm pushing at is the issue around electric generators in the region, whether they are natural gas-fired or they are oil-fired, they do not have a firm fuel supply. And since they don't have a firm fuel supply, when we get these days for a protracted cold spells, they do not have fuel to run. And that is what my concern was. And that was -- that was really the letter that I had written to President Biden, looking for relief. Number one, with the petroleum reserves, he certainly has a significant resources to help with oil. And then really for around the Act, to allow vessels to foreign vessels to operate freely within the U.S. foreign vessels. Just this past week, there are probably 6 to 8 vessels down in the Gulf. They're filling up. These are foreign vessels and they head into Turkey, Japan, South Korea, Europe. And the fact that they can't come up to the Northeast with the U.S. natural gas, LNG. It's disturbing to me. So the President has the policies. He's done it before with the crisis in Puerto Rico, and he's been a real champion for energy issues and I don't believe he'll let us down here. I think the President will play an active role here, and help us get what we need to be sure that our customers have an event-free winter.
Ross Fowler:
And then maybe winding back for a little bit more color on an earlier question. You mentioned that all of these capital programs you're deploying and filed for but aren't yet approved yet, some of them are really to sort of mitigate the rent pressure around electric bills because you're taking fuel costs out of the system. But if bills are going up in the near term, are you worried about bill pressure, maybe not certainly taking those programs away because that's where we're trying to get to is mitigating that bill pressure. But are you worried about regulators slowing the pace to alleviate some of that bill pressure?
Joseph Nolan:
Well, listen, we feel for our customers, this is a challenging time, but there's not anything new to this region. We have experienced this before, and we have a long track record of working with our customers. I think when the regulators see the type of investments that we want to make, and the benefits. I can list 10 transmission projects that have reduced customers' bills by billions of dollars. So these are all very, very -- very good projects to help our customers access lower price electricity. So you have to put -- to make the investments in order to get the savings. And I think that's what the regulators key decision-makers will we'll look at and decide that it's the right decision.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Next question is from Paul Patterson from Glenrock.
Paul Patterson:
Can you hear me?
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Yes.
Paul Patterson:
So I wanted to follow up on a few things. First of all, on the preceding in Massachusetts by Commonwealth Edison asking for a delay. You guys filed a joint letter, I believe, on Tuesday with National Grid and [indiscernible], I think. -- basically indicating that you guys had no intention to renegotiate the contract. And then, I guess, I saw that yesterday the Governor of Massachusetts seemed a little bit more open to the idea. Just wondering if you could give us a little bit more color on how you see this. And I guess if you can, why you guys see yourselves in a different position with your projects as opposed to this one that's asking for renegotiation?
Joseph Nolan:
Yes. Keep in mind that our pricing is higher. It's in the 100 to 110 megawatt hour range. The project that we're talking about came in here and did very, very low pricing against projects that we had bid. I do not feel that like look at a success for any renegotiation. And keep in mind that what the government has said is that he would allow [indiscernible] grid to make a proposal. He didn't say that he was going to go and renegotiate with them. And so there's a lot of players that will have to decide on this. Certainly, it's our regulators. Now regulators at the end of the day are the ones that are going to decide what is best for the customers. And so that's the reason why you're not seeing any of our projects in there right now looking to renegotiate.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. That's great. And then just I was wondering what kind of response you've gotten -- I mean you sort of answered it, I think, just now with respect to the White House, and your letter, which makes a lot of sense. But I'm just thinking in general, is this -- I'm just wondering, is this a wake-up call maybe that -- I mean you just sort of wonder, the fact that LNG is being imported as a significant part of New England's reliability situation. Is this any sort of a wake-up call that maybe infrastructure -- maybe the region should be more open to infrastructure or maybe the federal government should be sort of pushing the stuff along? Do you follow what I'm saying, whether it's done to go through Northern Pass or just a whole variety of projects that have been delayed. And it just -- you sort of wondered, is there any change in Washington that you're noting in the region with respect to perhaps sort of getting real about reliability? And do you follow what I'm saying and the need for significant infrastructure improvements to be streamlined and what have you? .
Joseph Nolan:
Well, yes, you appreciating the [indiscernible] here, absolutely. I do see that each of these governors realized the seriousness of this. I mean we are at fragile point in time as we transition to this clean energy environment. And so consequently, we're going to need some relief, whether it's the Jones Act relief or other types of projects, certainly, the -- it's disappointing. You know how hard we worked on Northern Pass to bring hydro down. Another great resource that this region could really use. So I do think -- I mean, we're all working collaboratively. We've -- we were up in Burlington, Vermont. We had all of the states along with the FERC, and we're looking at these issues. And listen, a lot of my people at the table, a lot of people understand the seriousness of it. And so I'm fully confident that we're going to be able to put steps in place that are going to allow us to transition uneventfully to a clean energy future. It's going to be challenging. It's going to be challenging. It's going to require a lot of work. But I know that the folks that -- and the people at the table can get this done.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Next question is from Paul Zimbardo from Bank of America.
Paul Zimbardo:
Just a couple for me. on Jeremy's question, what interest rates are you assuming in the cost of debt on the offshore wind when you give those expected long-term average ROEs? And just how has that evolved since you gave that original target?
John Moreira:
Well, the -- are you referring to next year?
Paul Zimbardo:
The expected long-term average roles from the slides.
John Moreira:
Okay. Well, just looking at it from a long-term perspective, the interest costs associated with offshore wind post close once we divest, those proceeds will be used to reduce our short-term as well as our long-term debt. For 2023, we have $1.2 billion of long-term debt that's maturing at the holding company, okay? So the timing cannot align any better for us. And then on another positive note, if you look at the total utility debt that's maturing, it's probably the lowest amount that I've seen in a long time. We only have about $800 million of debt maturing at the utilities. So that sets us up very nicely. But we still have -- nevertheless, we have to fund our capital program. So I'm not seeing a huge headwind and I'm not seeing a huge movement in our long-term guidance as a result of this environment that we are in from an interest rate perspective.
Paul Zimbardo:
Okay. I was more referring to like the actual projects. I didn't know if the interest rates are pressure and there's an offsetting mitigation positive to compete the average ROEs intact.
John Moreira:
Well, number one, the -- because these projects are under construction, the interest cost that we are incurring during construction is capitalized. So we're not seeing any impact from a financing standpoint for these projects. And then once we get the proceeds from the divestiture that will be used to offset the debt that we currently are carrying.
Insoo Kim:
Yes. Yes. Understood. Okay. Great. And then briefly, I know you gave some commentary last call about pension. Just if you could give any updated thoughts there about pension returns or just your overall thoughts as we enter next year.
John Moreira:
Sure. Sure. A lot to do so. So pension returns, just like our peers, I'm not heading in the right direction for us. But even with that said, there will be some headwinds. But once again, not anything material, not anything that we cannot overcome.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Next question is from Travis Miller from Morningstar.
Travis Miller:
Not to belabor the point here too much, but back to the idea about what might happen a harsh winter environment. In the past, on a regulatory standpoint, you guys have had some headwinds. We've had difficult weather events. Do you think something has changed? Are you trying to set up a scenario here where if there are issues in terms of energy delivery resilience, reliability? Is there a way you can turn that into a positive from a regulatory standpoint and get approval for more capital investment instead of getting penalized for not meeting a certain requirement?
Joseph Nolan:
Well, I think what we're focused on with the regulators now, our solutions to deal with this current winter. I don't know that maybe that would translate into some longer-term types of investments. But right now, this fuel security program where -- maybe these generators get given funds to have, say, a 7-day supply of fuel on-site. Those are the types of measures we're looking at short-term measures with our regulators. But I think that -- during that dialogue is where you can demonstrate to the regulator that a particular transmission investment would unlock potentially a certain number of megawatt hours in a region and lower the cost. So I think the fact is we have very good regulatory relationships. We have very good regulators that are very engaged and we're engaged with them on these issues. So any time you have an engaged parties you get much better solutions.
Travis Miller:
Okay. Great. And then one more on the governor's rates. Anything near term after the election that could be impacted either in programs that you're seeking approval for things you'd expect in the next year or so on the policy front, depending on the outcome?
Joseph Nolan:
Yes. No, I think we have eyes on all of the states. I think we've got pretty stable regulatory climate, and we have plans -- we have multiyear plans. We don't expect that any -- but everyone's agenda around clean energy, around AMI, those are all consistent, no matter who the candidate is. I think everyone recognizes that -- we need to have a grid that can enable all sorts of resources to operate on it whether it's your charging your electric vehicle, your solar panels or any type of a distributor resource -- so I don't -- I wouldn't expect any changes no matter who wins in what state.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Well, that was the last question that we have this morning. So we want to thank you all very much for joining us. We look forward to seeing you at the -- any of you at the EEI Annual Finance Conference. If you have any more follow-ups today, please send me an e-mail or give me a call. Thank you.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect your lines.
Operator:
Good morning. Thank you for attending today's Eversource Energy Q2 2022 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Alexis, and I will be your moderator for today's call. All lines will be muted during the presentation portion of the call with an opportunity for questions and answers at the end. [Operator Instructions]. I would now like to pass the conference over to our host, Jeff Kotkin with Eversource. You may proceed.
Jeff Kotkin:
Great. Thank you very much, Alexis. Good morning and thank you for joining us. I'm Jeff Kotkin, Eversource Energy's Vice President for Investor Relations. During this call, we'll be referencing slides that we posted yesterday on our Web site. And as you can see on Slide 1, some of the statements made during this investor call may be forward-looking as defined within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risk and uncertainty, which may cause the actual results to differ materially from forecast and projections. These factors are set forth in the news release issued yesterday afternoon. Additional information about the various factors that may cause actual results to differ can be found in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2021 and our Form 10-Q for the three months ended March 31, 2022. Additionally, our explanation of how and why we use certain non-GAAP measures and how those measures reconcile to GAAP results is contained within our news release and the slides we posted last night, and in our most recent 10-K and 10-Q. Speaking today will be Joe Nolan, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and John Moreira, our Executive Vice President and CFO. Now, I will turn to Slide 2 and turn over the call to Joe.
Joe Nolan:
Thank you, Jeff, and thank you everyone for joining us on this call this morning. I hope that our investors on this call are having a good summer and have plans for some time off after earnings season concludes in another couple of weeks. We are enjoying a glorious summer so far in New England, with many sunny days along our shoreline and our mountains. If you haven't made a trek here this summer, we urge you to do so and support hundreds of thousands of businesses. Over the past few weeks with the longest sustained heatwave in Eastern Massachusetts in about a decade, our electric system has operated very well, and they have all year. Through June, the average number of months between power interruptions continues to place our reliability in the top decile of the electric industry and our relatively short average duration of outages continues to place us in the top quartile. This is strong evidence that our investments in infrastructure to enhance reliability have been a significant benefit to our customers. Response time to natural gas service calls, a key safety and performance metric for our gas distribution business, continues to be excellent. Turning to Slide 3. About two weeks ago, we posted our 2021 Sustainability report and linked it to our Diversity, Equity and Inclusion report. Our DEI report is new this year. Over the past year, a number of our investors requested that we provide additional transparency about our diversity, including providing more detail about statistics around hiring, promotion and retention rates, areas of our organization that are a high focus for us. We decided that the best way to provide investors and others with this information is to create a separate report that highlights the significant and increasing diversity among our employees, our management and our Board. We welcome your feedback on both the DEI and our Sustainability reports. The new Sustainability report highlights our successful accomplishments last year in a variety of areas. We continue to enhance the report and again have third party validation of our Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions. The report focuses, to a major extent, on Eversource's very significant efforts to support our state's goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80% to 85% by 2050. From a clean energy perspective, Slide 4 captures three of our initiatives in this area. Our battery storage project in Provincetown on Cape Cod was commissioned in the second quarter of 2022, and almost immediately showed its value when it helped avert an outage for approximately 5,000 NSTAR Electric customers. We have filed our first application under the most recent legislative authorization for regulated company's solar generation investment. We are seeking approval of three different projects, all of which would combine solar with battery storage. They would be located in Brockton, Warren and Yarmouth in Eastern Massachusetts. And altogether, it's expected to cost an estimated $31 million to build. We continue to progress on our unique geothermal network project that Massachusetts regulators approved in the most recent NSTAR Gas rate review. The project will be located in Framingham, Massachusetts. It will connect 140 apartments, homes and businesses to a geothermal system that will provide both heating and cooling. Customer receptivity to the project has been very strong, with nearly 85% of those along the route signing up for the pilot. We continue to expect the project to be operational in 2023. Turning to offshore wind on Slide 5, I want to update you on the progress we have made on our strategic review of our offshore wind investments. We've been working closely with Ørsted on developing the marketing materials that will be disseminated to potential buyers for our 50% interest in our joint venture. We continue to target an outcome for this review by the end of this year. Thus far, we have had very high level of interest and expect a robust sales process. We recently kicked off our buyer outreach and have had preliminary discussions with potential buyers and expect that process to continue. Key materials have been developed, including [indiscernible], non-disclosure agreement, confidentiality memorandum, independent engineering document and other materials. In the meantime, we continue to make steady progress on our three projects. South Fork is the first project to enter construction. We are virtually complete with the sections beneath the public roads in East Hampton, New York. We are now progressing rapidly on the onshore sections in the railroad right-of-way on the substation where the 130 megawatt project will connect. As a reminder, the offshore portions of South Fork will be built in 2023. We continue to expect the two larger projects, Revolution Wind and Sunrise Wind, to be fully permitted in '23 and to be in service in 2025. On July 8, the Rhode Island Energy Facility Siting Board issued to Revolution Wind a decision in final order approving the project and granting a license to construct and operate. As a reminder, Revolution will supply a total of 704 megawatts to Rhode Island and Connecticut and tie into the New England grid in North Kingstown, Rhode Island. As you can see on Slide 6, we've also made progress on the procurement side with 82% of the three project costs locked in, up from 80% in May. The demand for offshore wind generation continues to grow in our region. Rhode Island just recently enacted legislation that requires a solicitation by October of this year for an additional 600 to 1,000 megawatts of offshore wind. Another much larger offshore wind RFP for up to approximately 4,600 megawatts was issued this week by New York. Including projects already awarded, we are now looking at approximately 18,000 megawatts of offshore wind authorizations from New York and the states of Southern New England. We are confident that this level of procurement will attract wide interest in our wind investment since we continue to believe that the ocean tracks that we share with Ørsted are about the most attractive in North America, due to the high average wind speeds, moderate depths, proximity to road and incredibly deep public policy support. New legislation that passed in Massachusetts House and Senate last week should also further support a robust sales process. As you can see on Slide 7, there were several elements in that Bill that should help solidify Massachusetts effort to stay in the forefront of offshore wind development in the United States. They included an affirmation of the state's commitment to contract for 5,600 megawatts of offshore wind by mid 2027. Modification of the bidding process to encourage more competition among developers and incentives to increase the manufacturing and assembly of offshore wind components in Massachusetts. There were also provisions to enhance the sale and leasing of electric vehicles in the state, build more energy storage and develop grid modernization plans that would support electrification as a key path to decarbonisation. There was also a pilot program that would allow up to 10 communities in the state to restrict fossil fuel installation in new buildings. Healthcare and research facilities which have proliferated across Massachusetts would be exempt from the pilot as would certain communities with housing affordability challenges. Thanks again for your time. I will now turn over the call to John Moreira.
John Moreira:
Thank you, Joe, and good morning, everyone. This morning, I will review our results for the second quarter of 2020, discuss recent regulatory developments, and review our 2022 financing activity. I will start with Slide 8. Our GAAP earnings were $0.84 per share in the second quarter of 2022 compared with earnings of $0.77 in the second quarter of 2021. Second quarter results for both years include $0.02 per share of an after-tax cost associated with acquisitions, primarily related to the assets acquired from Columbia Gas of Massachusetts. Excluding those cost, we earned $0.86 per share in the second quarter of 2022 compared with earnings of $0.79 per share in the second quarter of 2021. For the first half of 2022, we earned $2.13 per share on a GAAP basis compared with earnings of $1.83 per share in the first half of 2021. Excluding charges related to the acquisition and a Connecticut storm penalty last year, we earned $2.16 per share for the first half of 2021 compared with earnings of $1.94 per share in the first half of 2021. Looking at some additional details on the second quarter earnings results by segment, starting with our electric transmission segment, which earned $0.44 per share in the second quarter of 2022 compared with $0.40 per share in the second quarter of '21. Improved results were driven by higher level of investment in our transmission facilities. Our electric distribution segment earned $0.37 per share in the second quarter of 2022 compared with earnings of $0.35 per share in the quarter of 2021. Improved results here were driven largely by higher revenues, lower pension costs, and storm restoration costs, partially offset by higher costs related to property taxes, depreciation, and other employee-related expenses. Our natural gas distribution segment earnings were $2.00 per share in the second quarter of 2022 compared with earnings of $0.01 in the second quarter of '21. Improved results were largely due to higher revenues and lower pension expense, partially offset by higher operating and maintenance costs, property taxes, interest expense and depreciation. Our water distribution segment earned $0.03 per share in the second quarter of 2022, the same level as we earned in the second quarter of '21. Results for Eversource parent and other companies improved by $1 million in the second quarter of 2022 compared with the second quarter of 2021. Excluding the acquisition and transition costs I mentioned earlier, the results include after-tax gains on clean energy investments, which increased by $0.02 per share from last year's levels and were largely offset by higher interest costs on long-term and short-term debt. Now that we have the first half of 2022 behind us from an earnings perspective and have a bit more line of sight on the second quarter of 2022, we have narrowed our non-GAAP earnings guidance for the full year to $4.04 to $4.14 per share from our previous range of $4.00 to $4.17 per share. Before moving on, I'm pleased to announce that as of the end of June, we have fully transitioned the remainder of Eversource Gas of Massachusetts business systems off of the legacy NiSource system and onto the Eversource platform. Overall, we cannot be more proud of the conversion process. It has gone extremely well since we closed the transaction in the fourth quarter of 2022. We have converted approximately 300 business processes over to Eversource, including the most recent move on to a new customer information system. Feedback from both EGMA customers and employees have been very positive and our operating and financial metrics have consistently met or exceeded our expectations. As a result, transition-related costs for this transaction will be minimal next quarter. We are very appreciative of the great support we have received from the NiSource team during this transition period. Turning to longer term earnings. As you saw in our news release and can see on Slide 9, we are reaffirming our long-term EPS growth rate in the upper half of 5% to 7% range. On Slide 10, we also reaffirm our $18 billion five-year regulated capital program that we discussed during our February earnings call, including our 3.9 billion regulated capital investment projected for this year. As Joe mentioned, we expect that by 2026, the last year of our current five-year forecast, our incremental investments required to offset the loss of the offshore wind earnings contributions that would have been in place, we estimate that that will be -- we required approximately 3 billion of investments. More to come on this front soon. In both February and in May, we noted a couple of additional areas where we expect the need for incremental investment over our current five-year forecast period to enhance reliability, customer experience, and efficiently connect clean energy resources. Turning to Slide 11, we have provided a status update on AMI for both NSTAR Electric and CL&P. At this time, regulators in both Connecticut and in Massachusetts are actively working through dockets with decisions expected later this year. Briefing has been completed in Massachusetts and we expect a decision towards the end of the year. In Connecticut, PURA held hearings earlier this month to address further questions that the department posed about an AMI rollout. We also expect PURA's AMI review to be completed by the end of the year. Separately, as we mentioned on our first quarter earnings call, NSTAR Electric filed an application with FERC in March on an innovative recovery structure to help promote offshore wind development off Massachusetts. The application involves Park City Wind, which is an 800 megawatt Avangrid project that was selected a couple of years ago as the winner of Connecticut's most recent offshore wind RFP. Park City will connect into the 345kV system where we are already planning some upgrades to meet rising electric load requirements. By working on the two projects together, we were able to reduce costs for customers. In total, the incremental upgrades would be about 200 million, for which about 150 million of that will be collected from Park City with FERC-based returns. FERC approved our application at its June meeting. We expect there will be other opportunities to emulate this type of offshore wind transmission interconnection agreement going forward. ISO New England is already reviewing another project that expects to tie into the New England grid through Cape Cod. We have discussed previously that including Park City, there are probably about 500 million of regulated transmission investment needs on Cape Cod to efficiently connect offshore wind that is not reflected in our current $18 billion capital forecast. We expect other significant investment needs to arise in the near future in both electric distribution and transmission segments since our states view renewable power as a critical means of reducing greenhouse gas emissions related to space heating and transportation. On the regulatory side, we have one general rate review well underway and another one about to be filed. A summary of those cases is shown on Slide 12. Hearings in the NSTAR Electric rate review concluded just last week and we will be entering the briefing phase soon, with a decision expected December 1 of this year and with rates effective January 1 of 2023. We feel very good about the strength of our case as well as our proposals to enable the Commonwealth's clean energy goals. Briefing will take place throughout the month of September. On July 1, Aquarion Water of Connecticut filed a letter of intent for its rate review in about 10 years [ph]. Key elements of the three-year plan are shown on this slide. We expect to file the actual application in August. Aquarion Connecticut's regulatory ROE was about 7.8% during the 12 months ended March 31, 2022. And the company's infrastructure investments have significantly increased over the past several years to enable water service reliability for its customers. Turning to recent financings, we issued 1.5 billion of two-year and five-year parent debt in late June. Proceeds were used to reduce short-term debt. The relatively short average maturity of the senior notes is due to our anticipation of a successful sale of our offshore wind interest. In terms of the equity issuances, as you can see on Slide 13, we launched our 1.2 billion at-the-market program in the second quarter of this year, and to date have issued nearly 1.4 million shares at a weighted average price of $91.98 through July. We also have issued approximately 640,000 treasury shares this year to fund our dividend reinvestment and employee plans. We have received a number of inquiries from investors regarding our pension obligation. Let me start with an overview of our plans performance last year. Our retirement plans earned approximately 1.25 billion, which amounts to a 24% return on plan investments. And we have contributed about $180 million into the plans last year. This resulted in the funded status of our pension plans increasing over the course of 2021 from about 79% to nearly 100%. The impact of pension expense on our earnings is mitigated by the fact that we have adopted a smoothing [ph] of actuarial gains and losses over the average participant future years of service. It's further mitigated by our pension trackers in place at our three Massachusetts electric and gas distribution companies and for our transmission segment. Additionally, much of our pension expense is capitalized into our capital projects and doesn't affect our earnings. And lastly, our qualified pension plan has been closed for new participants for well over a decade. Less than half of our pension expense actually affects earnings. The expense is lower this year, due in large part to the strong returns we realized last year and slightly higher discount rate. At this time, it is unclear whether pension expense will be a positive or a negative factor for our 2023 earnings. While it is unlikely that in 2023, we will experience the same returns as we realized in 2021, the discount rate that we will use for 2023 is expected to be significantly higher than the rate we are using currently. And that could help lower pension expense next year. As a reminder, our expected long-term rate of return assumed in our pension investments is 8.25%. Thank you very much for joining us this morning. And now I will turn the call back over to Jeff.
Jeff Kotkin:
Great. Thank you, John. And I'm going to turn the call back to Alexis to remind you how to enter your questions. Alexis?
Operator:
Absolutely. [Operator Instructions]. We may now begin.
Jeff Kotkin:
All right. Thank you, Alexis. Our first question this morning is from Shahr from Guggenheim. Good morning, Shahr.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Joe, I appreciate sort of the color on the process. But can we maybe dig a little deeper into where we are right now? Did you get any imbalance since the first quarter update? And I know it's early, but what's kind of your preferred structure? So if the leases and projects do get split up, would you kind of be willing to do a COD and take the construction risk for Sunrise and Revolution, so like a build on transfer? Or when you're thinking about an exit, you really want to exit and not take any development risk at that point.
Joe Nolan:
Good morning, Shahr. It's great to hear your voice. And I hope your summer is going well. So a couple of pieces to your question. First off, we've had 12 additional inbounds, folks that are interested in the properties. I will tell you that initial discussions, folks are not afraid of construction risk. There's no concern of that. There's a very healthy, excited atmosphere for wind as you might imagine. And since the start of this year has been nothing but positive things for wind, we started with the New York Bight leases, then the recent Rhode Island RFP news, the New York RFP news and obviously now this Washington deal, which is very exciting. So we feel really good about it. We don't think we're going to have to do anything different in the sale process. It's been very, very well received.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Got it. Perfect. And then just lastly, there's been some healthy amount of debating around how you sort of think about inorganic opportunities. Can you maybe just provide some thoughts around how you think about diversifying outside of New England, whether there is really any interest around acquiring electric operations or your strategic priorities outside of your footprint is really around the water business? Thanks.
Joe Nolan:
Yes, great. So first of all, just so you understand, we are laser focused on the wind piece right now, that's what we're focused on. That's where we're spending our time. The water business, we love the water business. It's extremely fragmented. I think you know that. When we were making acquisitions, they're in the 10,000 customer range, 5,000 to 10,000. That's what we feel very, very good about. But they're really virtually no independent publicly traded water companies in New England that really are left. So the focus has been on municipally-owned water systems. Aquarion has a phenomenal reputation in the water space. We think we have a great platform for us to grow, and also some of these municipal systems in the region that are facing some capital constraints as they have to look at upgrading their systems. I just want to make it very clear that we have no interest in expanding our natural gas footprint. That is not on our radar at all. And with regard to on the electric side, while there are potential customer benefits from a larger footprint, it would be very difficult for an acquisition to compete with investments in our own systems in Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Hampshire. There's no question that increased electrification will necessitate significant increased investment in our distribution and transmission systems in our substations to handle increased heating and electric transportation loads. Those investments will require significant capital. I think you know that our company history indicates that M&A is infrequent, but highly effective when it occurs. Mergers that created NSTAR about 25 years ago, Eversource 10 years ago, and added Eversource Gas in Massachusetts two years ago were beneficial to customers, accretive to our shareholders in the first 12 months after closing, increased our EPS growth and lowered our risk. And that's what I want to emphasize. We are about derisking lower risk. So we'll apply all these same principles to any future opportunities that we would pursue, Shahr.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Terrific. That's a lot of good color. I appreciate it, Joe. Have a good day. Bye, guys.
Joe Nolan:
Yes. Thank you.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thanks, Shahr. Next question is from Neil Kalton from Wells. Good morning, Neil.
Neil Kalton:
Yes. Hi, everyone. Thanks for taking the question. So Joe, you mentioned the news out of Washington. And you guys have had the advantage over others having a day to kind of evaluate this. We would love to get your take on what you see in there that could be helpful to Eversource, particularly on the offshore wind side. And is this something, as you're looking to kickoff the sale process, would you need to wait and see this actually pass before moving forward with that?
Joe Nolan:
Yes, I don't think we need to wait for it to pass. I think it will move -- we feel very confident that the Inflation Reduction Act will move. I think you see a lot of support in Washington, a lot of discussions around it. I think that some of the things around it, the enhancements to the renewable energy tax credits, is going to create substantial value for our projects. This Bill is 725 pages long, and it's very detailed, and we're going through each and every piece of it. But I will tell you that all indications that we have surfaced in that Bill is very, very favorable for our business and for the wind -- actually for all renewable businesses, quite frankly. So we're optimistic that this will help us. But we don't need -- this is not going to have us pause our efforts around our wind exit.
Neil Kalton:
Okay. And one quick follow up. And I don't know if you mentioned this in the remarks, so apologize if you did. But any sort of sense on how long this process will take to play out. It seems like there's pretty healthy interest. Does that suggest that this could be fairly quick or just any thoughts on that?
Joe Nolan:
I feel very strongly that we will have answers in this year, in 2022. I would expect the fourth quarter, we would be able to share a lot more color around it and hopefully execute shortly thereafter. But realistically, we wouldn't execute in 2022. But we will have a lot of clarity around the buyer.
Neil Kalton:
Perfect. Thank you.
Joe Nolan:
Yes. Thank you.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thank you, Neil. Our next question is from Nick Campanella from Credit Suisse. Good morning, Nick.
Nick Campanella:
Hi. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. So I guess just in your prepared remarks, you kind of just talked about, you issued some hold-co debt that had a little bit of a shorter tenor and it sounds like the offshore proceeds will go towards potentially paying down that first, if I'm hearing you correctly. So that's about like I think 1.5 billion of debt. How do you just think about use of proceeds and access to that? You talk about replacing offshore earnings in the out years? Is there kind of further debt paydown in the near term with capital deployment in the long term? Can you just kind of help us understand that more?
John Moreira:
Sure, Nick. This is John. So if you look at some of the upcoming maturities that we have at the holding company, we have pretty sizable maturities that will kick in, in early, mid and late '23 in the billions of dollars. Those will mature around the time that this transaction will happen. So there's more debt that is on our doorstep.
Nick Campanella:
Okay. And then I guess just on the Inflation Reduction Act, it sounds great for the industry in general. How are you thinking about the potential impact of like an alternative minimum tax to your business?
Joe Nolan:
Sure. The Bill has only been out 24 hours literally. So we're going through that. We have -- the team is looking at what that really means. It's a little unclear right now on the surface. But we'll look at that. Certainly, if it's a big check that we have to write from a minimum tax perspective, that has to weigh in. But we're still in reviewing that.
Nick Campanella:
Got it. Yes, I appreciate it's really early. And then one more if I can just squeeze it in, the NSTAR rate review, just how do you feel about kind of ultimately being able to bring a settlement to the table? Is that something you're actually trying to work towards? And if you could, just what's the timing there?
Joe Nolan:
Sure. We just completed the hearings. And you always need to have enough information on the docket in order to raise any settlement discussions. But I guess I'm not ruling it out. I feel that settlement is certainly an option. And I think if you look at our track record, we always gravitate to settlement versus a fully litigated proceeding. So that's -- I feel very good about that.
Nick Campanella:
All right. Thank you so much. Have a great weekend.
Joe Nolan:
Thank you, Nick.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thanks, Nick. Next question is from Jeremy Tonet from JPMorgan. Good morning, Jeremy.
Rich Sunderland:
Hi. Good morning. This is actually Rich Sunderland on for Jeremy. Thank you for taking our questions today. Maybe starting off with the Massachusetts climate legislation, can you speak to some of the distribution system upgrades that might come out of that legislation, or any other enhancements you're looking at on the distribution side?
Joe Nolan:
Yes. Thanks, Rich. We've got, as you know, a significant capital plan around that. We have been working towards these investments, whether it's AMI or other upgrades in interconnection. So that legislation really dovetails nicely with what our existing plans are. So it's nothing but positive from our standpoint in terms of dollars. Again, that is also heading to the Governor's desk. We're hoping that get signed and has no changes before Sunday. Sunday is the deadline. So again, these are very new, these are only days old.
Rich Sunderland:
Understood. I appreciate the color there. And maybe similar question, but on the transmission side, thinking about the coming offshore wind in the region, you spoke about the Park City upgrades. How do you think about the timing to scope out some more of these opportunities? Is this something that could evolve over the next year or two, and particularly thinking about all the wind kind of coming down the runway here that you spoke to in the script?
Joe Nolan:
Yes. I will tell you, I've been pleasantly surprised. One of the reasons we've had this kind of point of inflection around our wind business is the fact that there's such significant need for interconnections on our service territory. And this is right in our regulated business, which is our sweet spot. So I think every year or every six months, you're going to begin to see a greater and greater clarity around folks that want to interconnect. We are in a, what I would say the crown jewel of service territories. We are in the load centers here, whether it's in Connecticut, Massachusetts, this is where folks -- this is where the load is and that's where folks want to interconnect. So I think that every time that we get on this call and we're talking with you and meeting with you, I think we're going to have more and more clarity and more, more information around transmission opportunities that are taking place for renewable projects.
Rich Sunderland:
Got it. Thank you for the time today.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thanks for the questions. Next question is from Steve Fleishman from Wolfe. Good morning, Steve.
Steve Fleishman:
Hi. Good morning. First question is just, Joe, I think on the first quarter call, you said that you'd be able to ultimately get back to the earnings you were going to get from the offshore wind with the proceeds from this sale? Are you still confident that that is the case?
Joe Nolan:
Yes, we are very confident, Steve. Yes.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. And then secondly, just on the pension, John, I think you mentioned something of kind of -- for 2023, not sure if it will be plus or minus. Is that versus 2022 pension expense, or is that pension expense or income overall when you say that?
John Moreira:
Steve, it would be a comparison to 2022. Obviously, our returns right now are lagging behind what we earned in 2021, which is basis for '22 expense. But the significant change is the discount rate. So if I were to size the funded status of that plan today, we would move from 100% to something north of closer to 120%. So even though returns might come down a bit than what we earned in 2021, but the movement in the discount rate could far exceed that impact.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. And then one last question just in terms of -- just to be clear on the use of proceeds. So when we look at the likely use of proceeds from the outcome of offshore wind sale, how should we think about the likely use of debt paydown versus regulated investments versus something else?
John Moreira:
Sure. So immediately when you get that cash, we're going to focus and payoff some short term, and as I mentioned in the earlier comment, we do have quite a bit of maturities that are maturing in 2023. So that's where we will deploy. But certainly it gives us the capacity to redeploy into incremental regulated wind investments that are needed, as Joe has mentioned, for transmission interconnections and to address the load concerns that our infrastructure is faced with to accommodate electrification. So that's what -- we're going through that analysis now. And we'll update you kind of the normal course of business. As you know, we typically will update our forecast in February. So the team is working on that analysis as we speak.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay, great. Thank you.
Jeff Kotkin:
Great. Thanks, Steve. I appreciate it. Next question this morning is from Insoo Kim from Goldman. Good morning, Insoo.
Insoo Kim:
Hi, Jeff. Good morning and happy Friday. First question on the ATM equity within amounts you issued so far, any additional color on roughly how much more you're contemplating issuing in 2022, or do you think like this might be kind of until we get the clarity on offshore wind stuff?
Joe Nolan:
Right. So, Insoo, it's not a race to the finish line. So we will continue to be very opportunistic and take advantage of our stock price. And that's exactly what we did. We issued the 1.4 at close to $92 a share. It's difficult for me to answer that question without knowing where we'll be. But if we have an opportunity to go to market in the next five months, we'll do so.
Insoo Kim:
Okay, got it. And then going back taking the question on the M&A side, you've made it pretty clear that the focus is probably on water. Obviously, a lot of municipal acquisition opportunities I think exist, but would you also potentially be open to looking at publicly traded water companies as well if there's one?
Joe Nolan:
Yes, absolutely. If it was a strategic fit, we're not going to go across the country. It's going to have to make sense for us. It's going to have to be in the general area. So yes, we'd absolutely look at that. They are far and few between, as you know, but certainly water is very, very attractive to us.
Insoo Kim:
Got it. Thank you so much.
Jeff Kotkin:
All right. Thank you. Next question is from Durgesh from Evercore. Good morning, Durgesh
Durgesh Chopra:
Hi. Good morning, Jeff. Just on the water M&A topic, Joe, just want to pick your brain on this. So one of your peer water utilities I guess announced an agreement here north of $1 billion or close to $1 billion in Bucks County, Pennsylvania. You have an experience running the Connecticut water system for several years now. So are you outside of the publicly traded water companies. Could we see you get into the municipal market in neighboring states on the water front?
Joe Nolan:
Absolutely. But they would be in neighboring states, just like you said. They'd be states that we're doing business in. And we feel that that really is going to be the next road traveled. I think you're seeing municipalities and some of these water systems that are facing some capital constraints. And I think they feel it's probably best to turn it over to a professional operator. And that's what I think you're seeing, that's what I think happened down there in the one you're just talking about in Pennsylvania that they thought it would be best to turn it over to us, a fantastic operator. I think that [indiscernible] a fantastic operator and I think the municipalities recognize that, and that's why they did it. But I think the same thing is happening in this region, that we're seeing opportunities where municipalities do approach us and are looking for our expertise in this space. So that will continue. Again, these are small opportunities. When you're doing transactions that are in the $80 million to $100 million range to pick up 9,000 to 10,000 customers or even a municipal treatment, they're a lot of work. But, again, they're also very attractive to us, because we have the platform. We have an incredible management team at Aquarion that has the expertise needed to really turn things around. I think our record stands for itself.
Durgesh Chopra:
Got it. I appreciate that color. And then, John, I had a quick clarification. In your comments you mentioned the 3 billion in investments in offshore. That's sort of the current plan. Is that what you were referring to on the offshore front, or was that sort of the regulated CapEx hole you needed to fill to kind of sort of make you square on the offshore earnings? Can you just clarify that?
John Moreira:
Sure. The 3 billion, it would be the incremental investments that we would need to replace the earnings once we divest of the offshore wind would need to be replaced. And that aligns with the guidance that we gave you back in February, where we said that we would expect our win business to contribute between 6% to 8% based off of the regulator returns for the first full year of operations, and that is 2026. So if you do the math, that puts you at about 140 million, and the 3 million is what it would take from a regulated standpoint to replace those earnings using a 50-50 cap structure.
Durgesh Chopra:
Got it. So 3 billion in regulated investments would equal the earnings loss from offshore?
John Moreira:
That's correct. And on today's call and what we've been disseminating is we're well on our way to reaching that. We're between the AMI and the offshore interconnection into our system. That's about 1.5. billion of that number. And then just given the opportunities that Joe has mentioned and we were seeing happen to materialize just on the whole distribution system and transmission system to accommodate the load expansion to bring in further renewable resources to address decarbonisation and electrification, we feel very confident that we can reach that level of investment.
Durgesh Chopra:
Excellent. Thank you for the detail. Very much appreciated. Have a great day, guys.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thank you, Durgesh. Next question is from Andrew Weisel from Scotia. Good morning, Andrew.
Andrew Weisel:
Hi. Good morning. Thank you. If I can first follow up on that last question, it sounds like you're expecting to get at least half if not all of that 3 billion, you sound more confident. What would that mean for EPS growth? The EEI slides, you said you'd expect to be higher than 5% to 7% thanks to offshore. So if you are able to backfill the wind earnings, does that mean you grow earnings faster than 7%?
John Moreira:
Well, we're not here today to update our guidance. What we're seeing is that the $3 billion investment would replace the earnings that we would lose from the wind. So I think it's a little premature.
Andrew Weisel:
Okay, fair enough.
John Moreira:
But Andrew, certainly it would be additive to our core business growth from where we are today.
Andrew Weisel:
Okay, got it. Then from the customer perspective, the cost of offshore wind obviously won't go away if the owner changes. So how do you think about affordability impacts if you're backfilling the CapEx with projects in the rate base, in addition to those offshore projects still moving forward?
Joe Nolan:
I think if you look at some of the pricing out there right now for energy, you'll see that wind is very, very competitive, and certainly is less costly than the options that are available right now in the marketplace. So I don't think that cost is going to be a barrier around wind.
John Moreira:
And then, Andrew, what I would remind you of the 500 million that we've discussed on the call today as it relates to offshore wind interconnection, that's paid by the developer and not socialized.
Andrew Weisel:
Okay, that's a good reminder. Thank you. Then one last kind of maybe funny question in terms of the potential buyer, are there any requirements or preferences for the buyer to be a U.S. domiciled company, or could it just as easily be an international buyer?
Joe Nolan:
No, there are no restrictions on that. It could be an international buyer. It could be a local buyer, whatever.
Andrew Weisel:
Okay, great. Thank you.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thank you, Andrew. Our next question is from David Arcaro from Morgan Stanley. Good morning, David.
David Arcaro:
Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I was wondering if you could give an update on how conversations have gone with credit rating agencies, basically any chance that you're seeing for a lower [indiscernible] debt threshold after the sale. And what is your thinking right now just around maintaining your ability to hit the thresholds that you've got in place right now, given that you've got quite a bit of spending on the utility CapEx that you'd be adding to the plan?
Joe Nolan:
Sure, David. So I'll tell you that, and I'm sure you're fully aware of this, that we have completed our annual review with all three agencies and overall great, great outcome. As to how it relate to the Moody's getting to a 15%, so we do have a plan. Obviously, the use of the proceeds that we would get from offshore wind, that would contribute very nicely and move the needle. The equity issuance that we've discussed in total and in addition to the AMI, the ATM, we also have about 600 million of treasury shares. So you're really looking at 1.8 that we're looking to execute. And then that metric has been negatively impacted, quite honestly, by the high level of the first storm cost that we're carrying. And we have plans in Massachusetts to commence recovery, certainly with this rate case. And as you know in Connecticut, we do have a stay out that we can't change base rates, including the [indiscernible] storm costs any earlier than 1/1/24. So we were hopeful that over the next coming year or two, those recovery that will be in place, that recovery. And then as I discussed in my formal remarks, the status of our pension fund, and obviously because we are expected to be overfunded, quite honestly, that we have the ability to avoid any contributions for a couple of years. And then the timing of rate adjustments, we have one kicking in 2023, early '23, for our open case that we have for NSTAR Electric. So we do have a path to get to enhance FFO to debt. So I feel very confident that we'll be able to get there.
David Arcaro:
Great. That's really helpful. Thanks for that color. It sounds like there are some clear cash flow improvements coming. Should the baseline kind of target or assumption be that you don't see the need for any more equity in the plan even to hit that $3 billion or to fund that $3 billion of incremental utility CapEx?
John Moreira:
Well, that will happen over time. But once again, I think we -- once we get the offshore wind deal wrapped up, we will reevaluate our equity needs and align that with the timing of our incremental capital needs spending.
David Arcaro:
Great. Yes, that's fair. Thanks so much.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thank you, David. Next question is from Paul Patterson from Glenrock. Good morning, Paul.
Paul Patterson:
Hi. Good morning, guys. Thanks for the update. Just one question and that is with respect to the Massachusetts climate legislation, what's your expectation here for what the Governor might do sort of running out of time? So I'm just sort of -- I was wondering if you guys are hearing anything or getting any sense as to what direction this might be going in?
Joe Nolan:
Yes. Good morning to you. He is favorably disposed to sign this legislation. I don't anticipate anything that is standing in the way of that. He might have a couple of messages he sends back. But I think he realizes that it's not a time, and I don't think he wants to jeopardize what he considers to be part of his legacy. So I think we're in good shape on that Bill.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. So that's what I was wondering. In the slide, it says, potential seeking modifications. I'm just wondering with the session sort of ending, I guess that would be kind of difficult to do, I would assume. Is that the right way to think about it?
Joe Nolan:
He sent back some messages. If they're not in formal session, it makes it difficult, obviously, to kind of override that. But that doesn't jeopardize the entire Bill. These would be kind of individual, I'd say, pocket type of a change, one-offs that wouldn't impact the overall Bill.
Paul Patterson:
Okay, I see. So in other words -- okay, that's helpful. So in other words, he could make modifications. Okay, I got what you're saying. I was thinking maybe he wouldn't need the legislature to respond to those in order to have them become effective, if I understand that --?
Joe Nolan:
That's correct. It's not one of these total up or down. He actually can come in, in a surgical piece, if he felt that strongly. I will tell you that I think you've got a Governor here that is very mature and really understands and has a relationship with the legislature. So he'll be very thoughtful, very deliberate about anything that he does around this Bill. And I think anything he sent back, he probably will have already have kind of passed through with the legislature to make sure that everybody's on the same page.
Paul Patterson:
Great, really appreciate it. Thanks so much, and have a good weekend.
Joe Nolan:
Thank you.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thanks, Paul. Next question is from Julien from Bank of America. Good morning, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin Smith:
Hi, team. Thanks so much for taking the time and the question. So just checking in, if I can just try to elaborate a little bit, and I know you guys are preliminary on this $3 billion number here, but a little bit more on the timing in the pieces here, right? When you talk about like 1.5 billion tied to the offshore transmission, for instance in part, what's the timing there? I know we've been talking about sort of that would displace the '26 offshore, but is the idea that that 1.5 billion would be fully deployed by that point in time? And then similarly, my impression, but tell me what the specifics are, the other 1.5 billion there, how much of that is contemplated, for instance, AMI? And how much of that AMI would be done by '26 here, if you will? I'm just trying to understand of the 3 billion, how much capital, at least under the line of sight that you have today, do you think that you can have in place by '26 versus at some point through the decade, if you will?
Joe Nolan:
Julien, the guidance that we're giving is that by 2026, we would have, if you look at the, the forecast that we disseminated, take that capital number and add 3 billion. So we hope to have all of these investments in place by 2026. So to answer your question on AMI, as I've said in my formal remarks, we expect a decision from both Connecticut and Massachusetts. And quite honestly, we're working on vendor agreements to be able to move forward with those investments. And that's about $1 billion in total. And we're going to start on it immediately. So certainly by 2026, those will be fully in place. And then on the 500 million of interconnections, that one, a good portion of it, if not all of it, could be in place by 2026. So it's really the other opportunities to accommodate electrification and upgrades to our infrastructure.
Julien Dumoulin Smith:
Got it. Excellent. So it sounds like at least on the parts that you've identified, you've got line of sight for '26. And the timeline for more fully introducing the balance here would be sort of coincident with the timeline for announcing the sale?
Joe Nolan:
Or as part of our normal update in February.
Julien Dumoulin Smith:
Okay, all right. Yes, absolutely. Okay. Excellent. Well, thank you guys. I appreciate it.
Joe Nolan:
Thank you for your time.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thank you, Julien. Next question is from Ryan Levine from Citi. Good morning, Ryan.
Ryan Levine:
Good morning. Any color you could share at this stage in the offshore wind sale process on the coordinated marketing effort between Eversource and Ørsted? What drag along or tagalong rights does Ørsted have in these process and how does it impact the role they're playing in the preparation of [indiscernible], et cetera?
Joe Nolan:
Well, first good morning to you. Ørsted is a phenomenal partner. They are very good friends and they arm in arm with us even right down to the level of detail around anything that we distribute. They also joined us on any calls with potential bidders. So we don't really have any restrictions. They don't have any veto power. Obviously, they're our friend. They're a great partner. And we will continue to do business with them, whether it's on the interconnection front or helping them in any way. So you should understand that this is a very amicable, very friendly, and very coordinated effort as we look at this piece of our business.
Ryan Levine:
Okay. So you're saying no veto rights? Do they have any ability to offer a price afterwards, after the formal auction?
Joe Nolan:
No, they do not. And keep in mind that we love this wind business. We are going to continue to support this wind business and we want them to be successful. So we're going to make sure that whoever is the acquirer fits very nicely with Ørsted.
Ryan Levine:
Okay. And then somewhat related, is there a preset for evaluation that Eversource would require with this transaction for it to be contemplated, maybe just leave it open ended like that.
Joe Nolan:
I didn't catch the first part of that.
Jeff Kotkin:
Yes. Ryan, could you --?
Ryan Levine:
Is there a floor evaluation -- is there a minimum bid that you require?
John Moreira:
No. We're going to test the waters, right. So it's a little premature. We know how much we have invested in the joint venture. And we feel given the market condition that we should do, it'll be a lot more -- we're expecting a lot more of value, given the current market situation.
Joe Nolan:
Keep in mind that this is not -- we have a lot of line of sight on value, because obviously we saw what took place in the New York Bight. We've seen other transactions. So it's not as if we don't have a rough idea where this is going to end up. We know where it's going to end up and the players we're talking about, these are major players that are very well aware of the value of our assets. So we feel very, very good about that.
Ryan Levine:
I appreciate the color. Thank you.
Jeff Kotkin:
All right. Thanks, Ryan. I appreciate it. Well, we don't have anybody else in the queue. So we want to thank you all for joining us. If you have any follow ups, let us know today. We look forward to seeing you at the conferences in August and September, and have a wonderful summer off.
Joe Nolan:
Thank you.
John Moreira:
Thank you, everyone.
Operator:
That concludes the Eversource Energy Q2 2022 earnings conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your line.
Operator:
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for joining and being present at the Eversource Energy First Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. My name is Irene and I will be coordinating today's call. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand over to your host, Jeffrey Kotkin, Vice President for Investor Relations to begin. Jeffrey, please go ahead.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you, Irene. And good morning, and thank you all for joining us today. I'm Jeff Kotkin, Eversource Energy's Vice President for Investor Relations. During this call, we'll be referencing slides that we posted yesterday on our website. And as you can see on Slide 1, some of the statements made during this investor call may be forward-looking as defined within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risk and uncertainty, which may cause the actual results to differ materially from forecasts and projections. These forecasts are -- and factors are set forth in the news release issued yesterday afternoon. Additional information about the various factors that may cause actual results to differ can be found in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2021. Additionally, our explanation of how and why we use certain non-GAAP measures and how those measures reconcile to GAAP results is contained within our news release, and the slides we posted last night, and in our most recent 10-K and 10-Q. Speaking today will be Joe Nolan, our President and Chief Executive Officer, Phil Lembo, our Senior Strategic Advisor and outgoing CFO, and John Moreira, our Treasurer and incoming CFO. Also joining us today is Jay Buth, our VP and Controller. Now, I will turn to Slide 2 and turn over the call to Joe.
Joe Nolan:
Thank you, Jeff and thank you everyone who is on the call this morning. It's been a very busy start of the year, so let me get right to it. First and most importantly, we have continued to deliver very safe and reliable service to our 4.4 million customers. The average number of months between power interruptions continues to place us and our reliability in the top decile of the electric industry, and our relatively short average duration of outages continues to place us in the top quartile. We also responded promptly to damage caused by a number of northeasters that seem to be arriving in New England every weekend from mid-January through February. Despite that inclement weather, response time to natural gas service calls, a key safety and performance metric for our gas distribution business was excellent. I'm also pleased with our continued work to support our state's efforts to significantly reduce their carbon footprint. Our sustainability ratings at MC -- MSCI, and Sustainalytics remains among the industry's best when compared to RPA utilities. Our updated 2021 sustainability report will be published mid-year along with enhanced disclosures on our diversity, equity and inclusion metrics. We are also currently working to determine how an energy and water delivery company, such as Eversource should address Scope 3 emissions. Turning to Slide 3. As many of you know, the Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities is conducting an NDF inquiry into the role that gas will serve as the state moves to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by at least 85% by 2050. In March, we submitted a lengthy filing in support of the deep use inquiry. That filing has been posted on our Investor website and its key elements are included on this slide. As you can see, reducing energy demand by vigorously pursuing energy efficiency, and both the electric and natural gas business is a cornerstone of our strategy. Additionally, we are recommending pursuing multiple options to reduce carbon emissions from our approximately 650,000 natural gas customers in Massachusetts. They include developing a hybrid electrification pilot in a community where we serve both electric and natural gas customers. Building on the network geothermal pilot we announced earlier this year in Framingham, Massachusetts. Initiating a renewable natural gas program through purchases in in state on system injection and piloting the potential use of hydrogen with certain commercial and industrial customers. There is no question that our Natural Gas Distribution infrastructure will play a critical role in ensuring a successful transition to the state's clean energy future. The DPU is targeting a decision in this inquiry later this year. Turning to Offshore Wind in Slide four, I'm sure most of those on this call have read on news release us night announcing that we have commenced a strategic review of our Offshore Wind investments, where we are partnering with Orsted. It is clear that the landscape for Offshore Wind continues to evolve in many energy and infrastructure firms and investors, both inside and outside North America are extremely interested in investing in the Northeast United States Offshore Wind market. The extremely strong prices paid for New York Bight leases in February attest to this. We plan to evaluate our 50% interest in our partnership with Orsted together with the significant investment requirements, we have already -- we have ahead of us for our regulated energy in water delivery systems. We have more than $18 billion five-year regulated capital investment program that needs to be financed, and additional capital projects that are likely to arise in the coming years. We have concluded that now is an appropriate time to explore monetization of our Offshore Wind investments. The strategic review we have launched was formerly endorsed yesterday by the Eversource Board of Trustees it could result in potential seal of all, are part of our Offshore Wind interest. We fully expect that given the strong interest for Offshore Wind assets, we will be able to replace the Offshore Wind earnings per share that we would realize after our two larger projects reached commercial operation. This could result from either greater levels of regulated investment, less financing needs, or a combination of the two. Finally, I just want to thank Phil for his decades of service to our company and our customers. I have worked with Phil for more than 30 years, playing on the softball team with him back in my early years and he will be greatly missed. He has been a proven leader and a consummate financial professional. He has been our CFO for the past six years and has steered us through acquisitions, significant equity issuances in a pandemic, while being transparent with the street, supportive of his staff, and wise in his counsel to senior management in the board. One can readily understand why our investors have rated Phil, one of the top CFOs in the industry the past few years. I am truly thankful that he is remaining in a senior strategic advisor role with us for the near term to help us with this evaluation of our Offshore Wind investments. We do not have a specific timeline for the review of our Offshore Wind project. During this process, we will continue to focus on a successful execution of our three Offshore Wind projects and we'll continue to lead the onshore portion of the project during citing and construction. One key element that may amplify market interest in our 50% interest, is the strong national and regional policy support for Offshore Wind. The current administration has targeted 30 thousand megawatts of Offshore Wind in the Atlantic by 2030. And the four states that are most likely buyers of energy generated by offshore tracks continue to ratchet up their support for this clean energy source. We strongly believe that Offshore Wind will play a very important role in Southern New England and New York's aggressive de - carbonization efforts. And Orsted is recognized world leader in engineering, constructing, and operating Offshore Wind. Moreover, the sites we are developing are among the best in North America in terms of consistent wind speeds. Moreover, we have a moderate water depths and a proximity to the electric road. In terms of our active projects, as illustrated on Slide four, an onshore cable installation beneath the roads of East Hampton on Long Island is largely complete ahead of schedule. Major offshore work will take place in 2023 and will continue the project bringing a 130-megawatt, 12-turbine project into service by the end of next year. Siting and permitting on our two larger projects, Revolution Wind and Sunrise Wind also continues to progress. We continue to expect to receive final federal and state approvals in 2023 and bring both projects into service in 2025. Slide 6 shows that there have been no changes to the cost estimates or schedules we discussed during our year-end earnings call in February, with contracts now essentially fully secured for South Fork. We continue to focus on negotiating contracts for the two larger projects, which we expect to be built in 2024 and 2025. In aggregate, about 80% of these project's costs are now [Indiscernible]. We're making good progress on procuring additional agreements in expect that the debt percentage to rise over the balance of the year. I want to add how thrilled I am that yesterday, our Board elected John Moreira to be our new CFO. John will hit the ground running, having a leadership position throughout the finance organization over the past two decades, including Treasury, accounting, budgeting, regulatory and Investor Relations. He has also headed up our Investor Relations and our strategic initiatives, including our water acquisitions in the Offshore Wind business review we announced yesterday. He knows Eversource inside and out, and we will -- and will provide us with experienced financial leadership as we invest on behalf of our customers. Thanks again for your time. I will now turn it over to Phil.
Philip Lembo:
Thanks, Joe. Good morning everyone. This morning, I'll cover the results for the first quarter of 2022, and then John will discuss recent regulatory developments and our 2022 financing activities. I'll start with Slide 7. Our GAAP earnings were $1.28 per share in the first quarter of 2022 and this compares to earnings of $1.06 in the first quarter of 2021. First quarter results for both years include $0.02 per share of after-tax costs associated with acquisitions primarily related to the assets acquired from the Columbia Gas of Massachusetts deal. Results in the first quarter of 2021 also include a charge of $0.07 per share related to our performance in August of 2020 following tropical storm Isaias. Excluding the acquisition in the transition costs in the first quarter is of 2022 and 2021, as well as the storm-related charge in 2021, we earned $1.30 per share in the first quarter of 2022, compared with $1.15 in the same quarter of 2021. Our first quarter electric distribution earnings were $0.41 per share in the first quarter of 2022, compared with earnings of $0.34 in the first quarter of 2021. This is largely -- this excludes the storm charge. Improved results were driven largely by higher revenues in New Hampshire and Massachusetts and lower pension costs. Our electric transmission segment earned $0.43 per share in the first quarter of 2022 compared with earnings of $0.39 in the first quarter of 2021. Improved results were driven by a higher level of investments in our transmission facilities that we used to provide safe and reliable service. Our Natural Gas Distribution segment earnings were $0.47 per share in the first quarter of 2022 compared with earnings of $0.43 in the first quarter of 2021. Improved results were due primarily to higher revenues, partially offset by an increase in O&M costs. Our Water Distribution segment earned $0.01 per share in the first quarters of both 2022 and 2021. You may recall that the winter quarter is the weakest of the year for water utilities in the Northern U.S. Eversource Parent and other companies lost $0.02 per share in the first quarters of both 2022 and 2021, and this is excluding the acquisition and transition costs I mentioned earlier. We are encouraged with the positive first quarter results, but believe it is a bit too early in the year to revisit our $4 to $4.17 per share EPS range. We'll continuously evaluate this guidance range as we move through the year, as we would typically do in past years. I think it's important to keep a few things in mind. A significant percentage of our incremental gas business earnings come in the first quarter. Also, we expect to commence our ATM equity issuance during the second quarter, depending on market conditions. Like everyone else, we're seeing a dramatic increase in borrowing rates. Short-term rates are up 75 basis points depending on the day. The 10-year is nearly double where it was a year ago, so rates are higher. And storm response and restoration costs are a significant O&M item for the Company each year. With three-quarters of the year still ahead, we believe it's appropriate to see how the year progresses. Before turning the call to John, I'll just discuss our capital plan. I want to touch on a few of Eversource's initiatives. First, Eversource Gas of Massachusetts or EGMA. The process for transitioning EGMA into Eversource business systems is nearly complete and we expect charges to this transition to tail off after the second quarter of 2022. Systems have been transitioned since the start of 2022, include multiple work management systems, a natural gas dispatch system, a GIS and scatter systems, and the new customer information system. This has been just a great effort by the entire Eversource team to get all 300 business processes transitioned over from NiSource to Eversource quickly and effectively over the past 18 months. Second, Aquarian Water continues to grow, earlier this year Aquarian announced an agreement to purchase a 10,000-customer water system that serves five communities in Northwestern Connecticut. The transaction would result in Torrington Water holders receiving approximately 900,000 Eversource shares in exchange for their Torrington stock. Torrington is a very well run water delivery system, whose service territory is highly complementary to Aquarian’s existing footprint. Assuming timely regulatory approvals, we expect to close the transaction by the end of this year and for it to be accretive in 2023. I'm going to turn over the call to John in a moment, but first I wanted to say how grateful I am for all the relationships I've had with members of the financial community during my career. This has been especially true over the past six years when I was fortunate enough to serve as Eversource's CFO. Our customer -- our company is in a strong financial position in a great pipe because of your confidence in us. I look forward over the coming months to helping Joe and other members of the Eversource leadership team can execute our strategic review of our Offshore Wind investments. So thank you all. And now I'd like to turn the call over to John.
John Moreira:
Thank you, Phil, and congratulations on your retirement, and I personally want to thank you for your leadership of the finance team and for your mentoring of me over the past couple of decades. I also want to thank Joe, Jim, George, and the entire Eversource Board of Trustees for entrusting me with the CFO position. I am honored by the confidence you have shown in me and look forward to supporting Eversource Energy lead and efforts to serve our customers and prepare for New England 's clean energy future. As you saw in our news release and can see on Slide 8, we are reaffirming our long-term EPS growth rate in the upper half of 5% to 7% range. On Slide 9, we also reaffirm the $18 billion five-year regulated capital program that we disclosed during our February earnings call, including our $3.9 billion regulated capital investment projection for this year alone. You will recall that in February, we noted a couple of additional areas where we may see incremental regulated investment over the next five years. During -- turning to Slide 10, we have provided status updates on our AMI program for both NSTAR Electric and Connecticut Light and Power. At this time, regulators in both Connecticut and in Massachusetts are actively working through dockets with discussions -- a decision expected later this year. Briefing has been completed in Connecticut, and is scheduled to wrap up in Massachusetts over the next couple of months. Separately, in March, NSTAR Electric filed an application with FERC on a new innovative recovery structure to help promote offshore wind development off of the coast of Massachusetts. The application references Park City Wind, which is a 800 megawatt Avangrid project that was selected as part of -- years ago, as part of -- years ago as the winner of Connecticut's most recent offshore wind RFP. Like the Vineyard Wind project, Park City Wind will connect to the massive New England grid through NSTAR Electric facilities in the Cape -- in the Cape Cod of Massachusetts. Park City would connect into NSTAR Electric's 345kV system, where we are already planning some upgrades to meet rising electric loads. By working on the two projects together, we can reduce costs for customers. In addition, the incremental upgrades would be approximately 200 million, which the vast majority being collected from Park City with FERC based returns. We also have -- we also have asked FERC to approve our application in an expedited fashion. We expect there will be other opportunities that will emulate at this type of Offshore Wind transmission into connection agreement structure going forward. Since -- together Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island are seeking approximately 9,000 megawatts of such offshore projects. On the regulatory side, our only active rate case is NSTAR Electric, and we continue to expect a decision around December 1st with new rates going into effect January 1 of 2023. We are currently going through the discovery phase of this proceeding. At some point over the next couple of months, we do expect Aquarian Connecticut to file for its first rate review in about ten years. Aquarian kinetics -- Connecticut's regulatory ROE is about 7.7% for 2021 and well below the allowed rate of return of 9.63%. In terms of financing and recent credit rating agency decisions, we have completed a $1.3 billion 5-year and 10-year issuances at Eversource Parent Company, we did that in late February. Proceeds were used to meet the maturity of $750 million at the parent company that matured in March. And with the balance of the proceeds being used to reduce short-term debt. Fitch has completed at the annual review of Eversource system of companies last month and raised its outlook on CL&P from negative to stable. The stable outlooks -- also, Fitch reaffirmed the stable outlook for all of our family of companies. We have recently conducted our planned meetings with Moody's and S&P as well, and brief them on the status of our Offshore Wind initiative, our 5-year financial projections and our equity needs. We look forward to the conclusion of these reviews later this year. In terms of upcoming equity issuances, as you can see on Slide 11, we expect to commence the issuance of new Eversource shares this quarter through our previously announced at-the-market or ATM program. As we said in February, we plan to issue $1.2 billion of equity through this ATM program over the next few years. Additionally, we will continue to issue treasury shares to fund our dividend reinvestment, our optional share purchase, and employee stock plans. Excuse me. This is expected to result in approximately $120 million worth of treasury shares per year through these plans during our forecast period. It is important to note that our plan issuance of $1.2 billion of equity through the ATM program and the DRIP shares issuance are not impacted by the strategic assessment of our Offshore Wind that we announced yesterday. At this stage, of our strategic assessment, it is too soon to comment on how any potential sale of all or portion of our Offshore Wind investment would impact our financing plans in the future. Thank you very much for joining us this morning and I look forward to seeing all of you very soon. I will now turn the call back to Jeff for Q&A. Jeff.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you, John, and I'm going to return the call to Irene, just to remind you how to enter questions. Irene.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Now, I will hand over to Jeffrey, who will coordinate the current questions and answers list. Jeffrey, please go ahead.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you Irene. Our first question this morning is from Shar from Guggenheim. Good morning, Shar.
Shar Pourreza:
Good morning, guys. Morning.
Joe Nolan:
Good morning.
John Moreira:
Good morning.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
So Phil, I'm a little conflicted about your retirement announcement on one end, really come for you and John for Phase two, but I'm going to miss our -- definitely going to miss our state dinners and interstate road trips. So hopefully we can still do that.
Philip Lembo:
Yes. Nothing --
Shar Pourreza:
So Joe, just a question here on the sale process and maybe first two parts, and I got a quick follow-up there. First, what kind of options we're looking at. I know you mentioned it could be piecemeal, so just you're interest in the unused leases or everything. Are you sort of leaning one way or the other? And two, what is the timing for this process kind of in your mind, I know you said within 2022, but with the latest ATM set to start this quarter, how should we start thinking about this?
Joe Nolan:
Well, thank you. And it's great to hear your voice and look forward to seeing you in-person. So listen, we just are starting this process. We did have our board in here yesterday. Obviously, this was a decision that had a lot of thought going into itself. We now look at all of our options and the impact at the seal [Indiscernible], all seal would have on our business. So I think, I don't have an answer for you right now. It's not something that I have them with holding. I just -- I don't have it, so I will tell you that as this evolves, we definitely will keep everybody informed and we will obviously be very thoughtful and deliberate about any type of review and any kind of next steps on wind.
Shar Pourreza:
Got it. And then just -- what prompted this? Is -- did you actually -- did you -- will you feel that offers, I guess, would -- was this prompted by any interest from imbalance?
Joe Nolan:
Well, I guess, I don't think there's been an analyst -- I'm looking at the list of folks on the call and, obviously, you win. Folks have always asked us these questions about are we going to monetize our wind assets. And Phil used to always say to folks, if somebody backs up a brain struck, obviously, we will look at that.
Shar Pourreza:
Yes.
Joe Nolan:
And I think the New York Bight leases were a point of inflection for this Company. I think -- I was actually doing all-day meetings that day and we started to see some of the pricing. And as you know, listen, we're here for the shareholders and we are going to do the right thing by our shareholders, and our investors, and our customers. And this is the right thing to take a look at this. And I think we heard many of you loud and clear about, what are you going to do our around wind? So that's what really was the driver around this, Shar.
Shar Pourreza:
Got it. Got it. And then just lastly, obviously, in the context of your base 5% to 7% growth. Is this just a dilution avoidance or do you have a line of sight to incremental opportunities right now that you're excited to fund with the potential proceeds? And then what's the tax impact of a full sales as we're thinking about it?
John Moreira:
Sean, this is John. Let me start with the latter question. It's too early to tell, as Joe mentioned. We are looking at multiple structures and options to mitigate any tax leak itself. Too early on that front, but we are focused on that. On your latter question, or former question I should say, the financial impact of this, once again, we're still continuing to review and assess it, but we feel very optimistic with opportunities on the regulated side to continue to develop clean energy investment strategies. I mentioned one on the call in my formal remarks to support connecting Offshore Wind into Cape Cod. We think there's more to come. There’s a recent bid in Massachusetts that want to connect into Massachusetts and we are the incumbent utility in that area, so we're very optimistic. We have a solar, a sizable solar deployment program in Massachusetts which we're just kicking off the ground right now. Part of it will land in this forecast period and part of it could go beyond our forecast period. So we're very optimistic about what lies ahead to deploy the use of proceeds.
Joe Nolan:
But just to emphasize what John said, Shar, is we are focused on regulated assets, so we are not going to go from one unregulated venture to another.
Shar Pourreza:
Terrific. Thanks again, John and Phil. Congrats on Phase 2 and Mr. Nolan, I'll see you soon. Thanks, guys.
Joe Nolan:
Thank you.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thanks, Shar. Our next question is from Steve Fleishman from Wolfe. Good morning, Steve.
Steven Fleishman:
Yeah, hey, good morning. And Phil, wish you the best and hope to see that handicap keep getting lower. The -- just -- maybe first, could you clarify the messaging on your equity needs? Because at the one time -- are you keeping the ATM in place in just -- just no matter what year, or are you just doing this for now until you see the outcome of this and then deciding whether some of this would reduce equity needs? Just better clarity there would be helpful.
Joe Nolan:
Sure. Steve, as we mentioned in February, the $1.2 program would be executed over several years, right? So it sounds as though we're going to be executing it immediately all at once and in order. So as you all know, our core capital program that we continue to rollout is going one direction, and it's been increasing very nicely for us. Right now, we're looking at an $18 billion capital investment program that takes us through 2026. So we view that $1.2 as support of that capital investment portfolio. But we will continue to monitor and as I've said in my former remarks, it's too early to determine what impact the sale -- the potential sales could have on our future financing plans.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay. Is it fair to say that you need to use the proceeds mainly to reduce debt? Or is it just more premature and determine to use the proceeds?
Joe Nolan:
Yes. We are very focused on maintaining an appropriate capital structure. With these potential investments that we have discussed a few minutes ago, those what happened over time, so we are looking at reducing our debt. We are maintaining pretty high levels of short-term debt and our forecast does have some debt -- for the debt issuances that we can certainly take off the table.
Philip Lembo:
And if I could add --
Steven Fleishman:
Okay.
John Moreira:
-- Steve, that we've always talked about financing our growth in a balanced manner, and so we can't do it all one way or the other, and this helps support that balanced financing approach, and it's really, again, to finance the growth that's in the capital plan.
Steven Fleishman:
Got it. That makes sense. Thank you. And then one other question just on the announced sales, could you maybe give us a little flavor of what worst bids rights are, with respect to partnership. Like, do they have a right of first offer or refusal? And can they -- do they have any say on who their new partner is going to be? Can they like say no if they don't like somebody? Or could you talk a little bit about that?
Joe Nolan:
Sure. First, let me just tell you that Orsted is probably -- is a great partner. I mean, they are my very good friends. I've spent time in Denmark with Mads. I've got a great relationship with Martin and with their U.S. President David [Indiscernible] we have played a very valuable role in that partnership. We continue to play that role and we expect to continue to help Orsted as they make landfall here with any projects. So we are a valued partner, I was in NIOC the other night for an event in Long Island, we're making significant progress that wind based construction was supposed to take two years. We ended up doing it in one. So I think that the relationship will continue. The structural in some form of us helping them as they as they grow this business. In terms of the commercial terms as to whether they can buy us out or how that all works, it is confidential at this point, but that will begin to share that as we are able to share with you.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay. Thank you and congrats. And Phil, wish you the very best.
Philip Lembo:
Thanks, Steve.
Joe Nolan:
Thank you, Steve.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thanks, Steve. Our next question is from Nick Campanella from Credit Suisse. Good morning, Nick.
Nick Campanella:
Hey. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Congrats to Phil on the retirement announcement. I just wanted to expand a little on Steve's question. I was just curious on just what your flexibility is on the 50-50 JV. Are you able to sell just lease bed or is the contract structured where you have to monetize an entire part of the JV? I just wasn't sure if there’s a hurdle to what your flexibility is here. Thanks.
Joe Nolan:
Yeah. So I guess our flexibility is great, and our ability to make decisions on all our parts are very flexible. And again, we will evaluate what the results are and what makes the most sense for our business and for our shareholders. So we are not handcuffed in any way.
Nick Campanella:
Got it. And then if I could just ask like a non-offshore question just on inflation. I think you just talked of some higher -- you're seeing higher financing costs across the board. Just where else are you seeing pressure? You know it's been a couple of quarters of pretty hot CPI prints. And how do you feel on just overall cost containment within the 5% to 7%? Thank you.
John Moreira:
Sure. Sure. This is John, so interest rates obviously we -- is here in front of us and we have to manage that and we have a plan to compensate for that. We're also seeing some pressure. I wouldn't characterize it as significant challenges or hurdles, but we are seeing some challenges in the supply chain and more recently on the fuel component side. And there again, we are trying to work -- to work that challenge through and find opportunities to offset that impact.
Philip Lembo:
Then if I can add a little too that, some -- some of the items that you see, if it's commodities, or cable, or certain types of equipment, it mostly would it impact our capital plan? These are sort of items that would be used to advance our capital program. So as John mentioned, so fuel and what not is there. And I think it's important to keep in mind to on the offset some of our rate plans. We incremental revenues are based on an inflation or PBR adjusted formula. So that would help to offset cost increases should they occur going forward.
Nick Campanella:
Got it. Thanks. If I can squeeze just one more in, I'm sorry, but I know that you talked about -- and if I heard you right, you think that you can replace all of the Offshore Wind earnings as we get to 26 here. So is that just -- is that net of full proceeds, and then future investment in purely regulated opportunities? Can you just clarify that?
Joe Nolan:
Sure. We have to wait and see what the ultimate transaction or transactions are, whether it's whole or in part, but we feel very optimistic that we can replace those earnings just given the runway of regulated opportunities that we have ahead of us.
Nick Campanella:
Thanks for the time today, everyone.
Joe Nolan:
Thank you.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thanks, Nick. All right. Next question is from Angie Storozynski from Seaport. Good morning, Angie.
Angie Storozynski:
Good morning. So I'm going to start with a non Offshore Wind question. About Connecticut, you guys mentioned that Aquarian is going to be filing a [Indiscernible] case there. We saw that PURA denied the [Indiscernible] filing of the utility, which probably was assigned that [Indiscernible] coming, but can you give us a sense what of the latest status of your regular relationships in the State of Connecticut?
Joe Nolan:
Yes. Sure. So good morning. Our relationships are very positive. I mean, we had hearings. We could too go on AMI in very, very constructive discussions, very engaged commission. So I would say that things are good, we get very good relations with the government, with the attorney general down there. And I think things are very, very much improved, obviously from some of our challenging time. So I feel good about the climate down there.
Angie Storozynski:
And how is your expectation for the future electrical rate case in the state, given the inflationary pressures that you are likely feeling and will continue to feel? Is there any change in the timeline on when you would expect to file the next rate days?
John Moreira:
Sure Angie, this is John. So per the settlement agreement, we cannot change rates any earlier than January 1st of 2024, but as part of that settlement agreement, we did put the stake in the ground that re-rate we've -- that review qualified for the 4-year coming in and show, so we can actually stay probably until 2025. So we have to -- it's too early to determine when we would file, will we file early or later because of that point. So we will continue to monitor the earned returns offers, CL&P and make a decision accordingly.
Angie Storozynski:
Okay. Thank you. And then lastly on Offshore Wind. I understand that you're just beginning the process, but just looking at reasons for the process right with the year offshore these auction, which would imply that you're leases are probably North of $2 billion, and then the amount of CapEx that you will have spend on Offshore Wind by the end of this year. Again, I'm struggling to see how much of regulated CapEx you can generate in order to deploy the potential proceeds here. Again, we're talking probably ups again by my account, more of estimate, more than $4 billion of potential CapEx with again, AMI spending and all of these other projects that you're mentioning are not even anywhere close to the amount of money that you would likely have have.
Joe Nolan:
A lot questions there, but let's just start with the our Offshore Wind decision. Obviously, this strategic review is designed to kind of de -risk this business. You look at the market conditions that occurred with the Bight leases and you just have to take a good look at that. In terms of the $4 billion number, I don't know, John, if you want to.
John Moreira:
Sure. Sure, Angie. I think it's important to note that that $4 billion is not going to happen all at once, it's not going to come in in one year, but we feel very optimistic that over towards the latter half of our forecast period and beyond, what as you know the two major projects that we have our forecast would kick in in earnest for the first full year of 2026. So looking at our 10-year view of investments, we feel very optimistic that we could get to a sizable investment opportunity. AMI, as you know, is approximately $1 billion, which is not enough. $18 billion forecast year, we have other opportunities on the transmission side to facilitate and accommodate clean energy connections into our service territories, and I gave the example of one from an offshore developer. We see more happening, certainly in Massachusetts with the recent bids that were awarded earlier this year. So once again, we feel very optimistic that over time, we will certainly get to that $4 billion number that you cited.
Angie Storozynski:
But it would be probably twice as much now because it's just the equity component, right? Of the future growth, right? So it would have to be more like $8 billion of CapEx, right? To deploy this cash. Again, I understand it's already innings of the process but I'm just doing a simple math here.
John Moreira:
Yeah, yeah. No, I understand. And, Angie, where the states and the region is going from a clean energy and clean goals setting, there will be a need to accommodate further development, certainly on the electric side. Both on the distribution side and on the transmission side. We have the de - carbonization strategy. I think that's going to -- and we're seeing some of that happen in our service territory where loads are increasing and we have to address those loads in the short-term. And then you lay around for the demands that -- we see that as a window of opportunity. Once again, it's probably too early for us to put pen to paper, but given what we see and what we hear from our state policies, we feel very optimistic about it.
Angie Storozynski:
Okay. Great. Thank you, guys. Congratulations, thanks.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you, Angie. Next question is from Durgesh from Evercore. Good morning, Durgesh.
Durgesh Chopra:
Hey. Good morning, Jeff. And thank you, team, for taking my questions. First, just as we think about and try to model the evaluation -- future evaluation of these assets, are still using the 6% to 8% net income off of the 26? Is that a good estimate still for the -- as the representative of earnings from these assets?
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Yes, that is correct.
Durgesh Chopra:
Got it. And then just one question, Joe. I'm thinking strategically, if you, let's say exit all of the -- potentially all of the offshore assets, how does that impact your onshore transmission and distribution investments? I guess, the impetus of this question is, does it help you owning offshore assets with the onshore wind -- onshore transmission distribution investments or it doesn't matter? I'm just thinking about the implications on your onshore plan as it relates to these assets and other offshore assets for that matter.
Joe Nolan:
Yeah, you know, one of the interesting aspects of this wind development has been that even when we, the unregulated business has lost bidding in different states help, we end up winning the interconnection and the transmission built for these developers. So that continues and I'm very, very optimistic a lot. I think we will continue to play a role on the on -- we will, I can tell you we will and I don't think we will play a role on the regulated onshore wind transmission construction in operation for all these Offshore Wind developers and the appetite is extraordinary.
Durgesh Chopra:
Got it. Thank you for that. Sounds like you're pretty optimistic and bullish on those prospects as it relates to onshore investments. Okay. Thank you. And, Phil and Jim, congrats to you both. Thanks for taking my questions.
Joe Nolan:
Thank you.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
All right. Thank you, Durgesh. Next question is from Jeremy from JPMorgan. Good morning, Jeremy.
Ryan Karnish:
Hey. Good morning. It's actually Ryan Karnish on for Jeremy. Thanks for taking my questions.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Hey, Ryan.
Ryan Karnish:
I'll just start with the future of gas proceeding in Massachusetts. And maybe making it through the potential regulated CapEx opportunities there, and just any high-level thoughts on the level of CapEx that might enable to bring it to the plan, and then just over what time frame these might materialize?
Joe Nolan:
Yes. We're playing an active role, obviously, in that proceeding. We continue to feel very good about the gas business. I'll let John maybe to weigh in around the CapEx plan. But we still feel very, very good about it. We're playing a key role in that proceeding. John?
John Moreira:
Yeah. On that specific question, once again, I think it's too early. We just filed this a couple of months ago, but I can tell you that what we do have is we do have about a $10 million investment opportunity in Framingham that we mentioned that we're looking to test from a geothermal standpoint. But once again, I think it's too early for us to size the breadbox at this point.
Ryan Karnish:
Totally understand. And then just one on Offshore, maybe tackling the financing side from different perspective, but you talked about in the prepared about having discussions recently with the agencies, but just wondering at any kind of high-level how you think about a potential partial or full sell down, what it might do to your credit thresholds. How we should we think about that kind of impacting the financing plan?
Joe Nolan:
Well, we feel comfortable with the -- what we've have announced, the $1.2 billion equities, and as we've said, it's regardless of what we -- the ultimate proceeds off from this initiative, but now that's not likely to change at this point. We still need to continue to evaluate it. But we feel pretty optimistic as to where we are. As I've mentioned, Fitch, we kind of reaffirmed all of our ratings and we're optimistic that Moody's and S&P will follow soon.
Philip Lembo:
If I can add to that. We alluded to the fact of making the visits and whatnot. And I would add that this would be viewed as credit positive in a sense whether it'd be from a proceeds standpoint or we fall on the risk grid types of things. So we'll have to work over the next few months for their -- or Bill have to work on their analysis over the next few months. But I think an overall big-picture sense, a credit positive outlook from this announcement.
Ryan Karnish:
Got it, understood. That makes sense. I'll leave it there.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Okay. Thank you, Ryan, appreciate it. Our next question is from Insoo Kim from Goldman. Good morning, Insoo.
Insoo Kim:
Hey good morning, guys. First question touching up a little bit more on whether it's a transmission or other opportunities related to offshore development in your area. Just as you think about the next five years of the 10-year build-out of the gig watts in your service territory; is there any way to frame or size the opportunity set? Again, whether it's transmission or others related to Offshore Wind that are more in common to your -- and you have more of a right to those investments versus those made that may be more competitive in nature?
Joe Nolan:
Yeah, I guess -- first of all, good morning. When you look at -- one of the things that we've looked at in our business is, if you're in Offshore Wind developing, you're going to make landfall. It makes a lot of sense for you to go to the host utility. Yeah, granted there might be some competitive aspect to it, but just like our project in Rhode Island, obviously, National Grid would be a partner as we made landfall. We looked at our partners in New York as well, and it's generally the host utility. Yes, could somebody go another way? Yes, they certainly could. But I think that, when you look at our operations and our transmission business, I don't think you'll find better operators. I think we demonstrated that here with a reliability project here that was competitive in Boston. We did team up with National Grid and folks came in from around the country and we won that. And we were able to execute it. And our pricing was far better than anybody else. So, I think we have the best team in this space and I'm not concerned about somebody coming in and trying to cut our grass.
Insoo Kim:
That makes sense. But Joe, are you -- is there anyway to frame a magnitude of those investments just based on the development of projects that are supposed to come online in your areas over the next 5 to 10 years?
Joe Nolan:
So I got to tell you, we have visibility around though projects that have won. But as you know, each time a project wins and where it has to locate the used to be a lot of transmission planning, ISO studying around the interconnection. So I wish I did, I love to be able to tell you that it's a $5 billion or it's a $10 billion, but I will tell you it is significant and they all want to get into our territory. This is the load setter, so it's just that it's not a matter of what's stated. They're coming into this region and they are going to come into our territory. So the number, it's too early for me to tell you and if I knew it, I'd tell you.
Insoo Kim:
I'm sorry. Yeah, no, thanks for that. My other question, just thinking about the potential, you said the proceeds. I know it's too early from the strategic review, but is low-hanging fruit, I guess a combination of looking at your balance sheet or the organic CapEx they're talking about? Or could this open up potentially just from a capital perspective, some options on an organic side of the business, on the utility side.
Joe Nolan:
Yeah. I guess all of those. I think it's a combination of that. I think you know that when we get into the acquisition market, we're always smart investors. We're not going to do anything crazy, you're not going to see us go across the country. You're not going to see us make a poor decision. We made very good decisions and I think it's a combination of all those factors that we would use any proceeds from wind.
Insoo Kim:
Got it. That's all for me. Phil, it's been a pleasure. John, congratulations. Looking forward to it.
Joe Nolan:
Thank you.
John Moreira:
Thanks, Insoo.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thanks, Insoo. Next question is from David Arcaro from Morgan Stanley. Good morning, David.
Q - David Arcaro:
Hey, good morning. Thanks to say -- thanks so much for taking my question and congratulations, Phil and John. In terms of just the inflationary backdrop here. Could you give any sense of what you're seeing for the year-over-year increase in your bills so far, in your customer bills so far this year? I know everybody facing it, I'm just curious if you're -- if you've got any level of quantification, you could offer for what we're seeing for year-over-year increase.
John Moreira:
Well, overall with the energy component will probably in the 7% range that we're seeing year-over-year, net-net.
David Arcaro:
Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And then on the -- let's see, the $200 million transmission opportunity that you alluded to in the script, is that in the plan yet? And could you remind me one that would come into service?
Joe Nolan:
Hey, it's not in our $18 billion capital forecast that we disseminated in February. If you recall, David, in February we said in addition to the $18 billion, we were seeing some opportunities and we had quantified a potential opportunity for Offshore into connection in Massachusetts of approximately $500 million. So this $200 million filing that we did with FERC is $200 million of that five. So we -- as I've said, we're confident that there will be more to get us to at least the five if not over. And the timing of that would be I would say the next year. If you could see materialize this year as these PPAs and now being filed with the DPU and the studies are in front of ISO New England already for review.
Q - David Arcaro:
Got it. And then just last quick question on the Offshore Wind costs in terms of the percentage that's locked in, what would you anticipate to be at toward the end of the year from that 80% level currently?
Joe Nolan:
Yeah, we should be closer to a 100%, we've got eyes on that kind of remaining piece of it. We feel good about it, it's not anything that's keeping me up at night.
Q - David Arcaro:
Okay. Got it. Understood. Thanks so much.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
All right. Thank you, David. Next question is from Andrew Weisel from Scotia.
Andrew Weisel:
Hi, good morning, everyone. Thank you for squeezing me and about the hour mark. First, just another congratulations to Phil and John. Next, want to elaborate just on a couple of things talked about. First, potential buyers, you've been cleared that you'd only be interested in offshore wind off of the coast of your region. Let's say the Northeast should the sale happen with the buyer also be restricted to that region, or it could they work with Orsted projects in other parts of the country?
Joe Nolan:
I don't I don't see anything that would restrict them from that. I think that they could operate anywhere they wanted to operate, but again, it's pretty early in the process.
Andrew Weisel:
Okay. Just wanted to know if there was anything in your contract with Orsted.
Joe Nolan:
[Indiscernible]
Andrew Weisel:
Sounds like no.
Joe Nolan:
Just keep in mind I guess I just want to keep in mind that whole philosophy around, sticking to your knitting's in this region to, because that's what we know. We're good at it. I mean, we just wanted that really was our mantra because that is where we feel comfortable. This is our space. We know the space. So that's what we talked about. It wasn't a contractual situation that was more that we didn't want folks to worry that we were going to hit to California or the Midwest. We're going to stick to where we know and we know this region very-very well than we feel good about it. So that was the caveat that we had around wind.
Andrew Weisel:
Okay. Thank you for clarifying that. Next on financing, you potentially might get a lot of cash proceeds here. You talked a lot about mitigating or offsetting the $1.2 billion of ATM equity. What about the DRIP? I believe that's about $120 million per year. Could you turn that off if you had this good cash position?
John Moreira:
This is John, Andrew. So, yes. I mean, we've confirmed that the $1.2 billion where we will be executing over the next several years, starting this quarter. But you're absolutely right, the DRIP, we have much more flexibility to turn on and off. But right now, we're looking to execute and that will be reassessed once we see when -- as we get closer to closing on its potential transaction.
Andrew Weisel:
Okay, great. Thank you very much.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
All right. Thank you, Andrew. Next question is from Julien from Bank of America. Good morning.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey good morning. Thank you team. Congrats again. Phil, John, it's been -- it's a pleasure. Look forward to more. And maybe with that, again, I know lots of things have been asked and answered, but I mean, I want to come back to this tension on how much offshore net income were you expecting? And are you expecting to offset by 2026? I know earlier in response to Steve's question, you'd specifically cut a flag. That came down as an element or the bulk of what proceeds would be used for. But how should we think about what that increment was? And again, last quarter we spent much time talking about ROEs and how much net income was at the whole year. You talked about holding yourselves sort of even against that original expectation. I'm just trying to reconcile the math this quarter and last quarter.
John Moreira:
Sure. Sure, Julien, and this is John and thank you for your comment. Once again as we said, I'm very confident that we could find those opportunities given the policies that our policy makers in the States that we operate and we've already given you a lot of information, AMI being one of them that'll in and of itself, as you know, is about $1 billion and on the transmission side, there is also the opportunities that I laid out to you. And that's just for Massachusetts for what award have been issued for Massachusetts, so there's still a lot of more space out there for further development. And as Joe mentioned, people are looking to interconnect in Southern in Connecticut and in Massachusetts. So we feel confident that we will have the opportunities to a combination of investments, the combination of finance -- lower financing requirements that we would need otherwise. We feel very confident that we'll be able to sizes those opportunities as we move forward. Right now it's still too early to tell.
Joe Nolan:
And there's no tension, Julien, no tension. Don't worry about that.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Thank you, Joe. If I can just rephrase it slightly differently, especially coming off those rating agency conversation. I know you talked about the 1.2 billion in ATM here. I mean, how should we think about the need for equity beyond the 1.2, especially in the context as offshore. I'm just trying to understand, like how much further equity is needed that would be allocated from these proceeds? Obviously, you're not building something so that changes the financing plan, but just to try to level that on that incremental equity piece that seems to be here against the backdrop of earnings growth. If I can ask it slightly differently really appreciate your clarity here.
Joe Nolan:
Sure. And I would say it's far too early for us to make that determination as to what those finance and plans look like, because we don't know exactly what will be the ultimate outcome of this review that we're going through and the timing of those investment opportunities that I've mentioned.
John Moreira:
We have no plans to do further equity through, and if that's clear. And just to be clear too, you use the word incremental. So this is what we've talked about this morning, is not incremental. It was part of what we discussed in February, so it's the plan of the 1.2 plus the minor shares or dollars that come in from DRIP. And there are no incremental equity plans in the plan.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. This doesn't [Indiscernible]. Great. Thank you for that clarity, Phil, I appreciate it.
John Moreira:
You're welcome.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you. Thank you.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Good luck guys.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you. Thank you. Next question is from Ryan Levine at Citi. Good morning, Ryan.
Ryan Levine:
Good morning. I appreciate the evaluation argument for potential monetization, but can you talk about any strategic dis-synergies or synergies that would impact any decision-making about potential deal structuring? Are there any practical reasons for Eversource to maintain ownership or play a part and ongoing Offshore Wind operations at least from a contractual standpoint? And then in this context, why is now the right time?
Joe Nolan:
Yeah. So a couple of things that thanks for the question. The dis-synergies absolutely not I mean, this piece of the business as it relates to what we were focused on, which is the onshore. That was what -- that was the piece that we brought to the table and that continues to happen. It happens both in our unregulated business as well as regulated for other folks that want to interconnect. So that will not be the case. In terms of why now, I think we also are what happened in the New York Bight leases and the appetite is extraordinary. The pricing is extraordinary and it's just something that is right for us to do for our shareholders. That's why we made this decision. Again, this is a decision was made to take a look at it as a strategic review, and I feel it's the right thing to do and so does our board members.
Ryan Levine:
If evaluation is the primary consideration, how do you -- would you prefer to just get evaluation marker on a minority sale as opposed to selling your entire stakeout rate given some of the cash proceeds questions that you articulated earlier in the call?
Joe Nolan:
No, I think that we've shared with folks the opportunities in the regulated space that are available to us, and we think that -- we think the opportunities are extraordinary. So I don't think it would make any sense for a partial. If the number is right on a full, then we will make that decision and we will exit it.
Ryan Levine:
Appreciate it. Look forward to seeing you in Boston next week.
Joe Nolan:
Yeah great.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thanks, Ryan. Appreciate it. Next question is from Sophie from KeyBanc. Good morning, Sophie.
Sophie Karp:
Hi. Good morning. I can't help but to try ask you another Offshore question maybe from a different angles here. I understand there are larger declined each individual piece in this positive land that makes sense to trend monetizes given where the relations are et cetera, but help me paint the broader strategic picture, please. You seem like they're selling an asset that you don't need to sell. Even though you also don't need -- don't have an immediate need in funding, right? You don't have the need for that money. Despite all that, you are still proceeding with the equity. And you are yet to kind of quantify where those users proceeds could go. Strategically, what is the strategic narrative this year? I'm still struggling as I listen to this discussion to clearly depict that.
Joe Nolan:
Sure. I guess the strategic narrative is this extraordinary opportunity in the regulated space that we know we're very, very good at, number one. And number two, we have some assets that are worth significantly more then that we paid or reinvested in, and we see an opportunity to rotate a de -risk on behalf of our shareholders, which is really what the mission is. And we see that opportunity as being advantageous for all the parties, and that's why we made that decision. And again, the reason why is, the appetite in the Offshore Wind is extraordinary. And also the needs in Offshore Wind for terms of interconnection are extraordinary. That's what we're very, very good at. And we're going to play to our strength.
Sophie Karp:
Okay. So you used this word a few times, like to de -risk business, right, and I get it. But the question is, do you think that the risk profile of this project has changed since the plan you've entered into this contract originally?
Joe Nolan:
The profile of the price, has it changed?
Jeffrey Kotkin:
The risks.
Joe Nolan:
The risks. Well, no. I mean, there's obviously a great deal of -- there's additional lease areas that have been put out, there's additional players in the marketplace. And as you know, I think everybody on this call knows how disciplined we are in terms of our investments, and we have to remain disciplined. So if you're going to bring a significant number of undisciplined folks into this equation, then that's really not a place for this Company.
Sophie Karp:
Great. Thank you. I will jump back into the queue.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
All right. Thank you, Sophie. Our next question is from Paul Patterson from Glenrock. Good morning, Paul.
Paul Patterson:
Good morning. Can you hear me?
Joe Nolan:
Yeah. We can hear you, Paul. Yeah.
Paul Patterson:
Congratulations Phil and John, just congratulations to all. And I feel your sort of getting off the easy years somehow, but I don't know why. Good for you. Just on the review, I mean, almost everything has been asked here, but just -- I am just wondering, have you had any indications or expressions of interest, and I apologize if I missed this. So far, I mean, I know that your board took action just now, but has there been or have you had the preliminary indications of interest?
Joe Nolan:
We have not. And because that was -- we just made the announcement yesterday, so we do expect that there be significant interest, probably already is at this point. We've been focused on this earnings call, but we do anticipate significant interest in these assets.
Paul Patterson:
[Indiscernible] you expected to have -- you're going to review those through the rest of this year. So should we expect something, I know it's kind of early, but sort of December - ish, where we may hear an announcement, or could it happen earlier?
Joe Nolan:
Yeah. It could happen earlier, I think you'll have some updates as things progress. I think we'll have a better understanding as to folks that are going to show up. And I think as you know, we were very transparent and we'll share as things become available.
Paul Patterson:
Awesome. I think it sounds really smart. And again, congratulations, still I'd like to ask you questions about program or something, but congratulations again, and best wishes. Take care.
John Moreira:
Thank you, Paul. I appreciate it.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
All right. Thank you, Paul. I think we're going to wrap up this last question from Travis Miller from Morningstar. Travis.
Travis Miller:
Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions here and getting congratulations. Phil, John, I appreciate all the information you guys given over the years. Real quick. Follow-up to follow up to follow-up. You've talked about Offshore Wind returns being higher than the regulated returns you're getting. Just wondering if anything has changed that as you look out in terms of supply chain or inflation on the worker side, or materials, etc.
Joe Nolan:
Yes, so -- I'll take that. I guess, I will tell you that the returns remain higher than regulated returns today. So we still feel that way about it and that is the case and all of our estimates and our projections are, they are higher than our regulated returns. Yes.
Travis Miller:
Okay. Great. And then just one quick follow-up again to the Massachusetts. Do you think the spirit of the DPU 's, say investigation or requests, have to do with some of the political and legal stuff that's happened over the last couple of years in Massachusetts regarding gas bans and other fossil fuel bans?
Joe Nolan:
Yeah, no, absolutely. I think that was -- that just demonstrated Governor Pegu's leadership around gas and his desire to at least let everyone have a fair hearing and try to sort this out. So no, I think it's -- we actually welcomed it. Obviously, it's a very thoughtful and deliberate process that we have a seat at the table and we will see this through and it will happen this year.
Travis Miller:
Great, thanks so much. I appreciate the extra time you guys took here today.
Joe Nolan:
Yes, thank you.
John Moreira:
Thank you.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you, Travis. We appreciate it. We're -- I don't see any other folks in the queue but if you have any further questions, please either reach out by email or phone to us today. We really appreciate you being with us. And I'm going to turn it back to Irene for any closing comp -- any closing instructions.
Operator:
Thank you, Jeffrey. Currently, we have no further questions. In case Jeffrey would not like to have any closing remarks, then ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for being with us today. Have a lovely day ahead. You may disconnect your lines now.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
All right. [Indiscernible]
Disclaimer*:
This transcript is designed to be used alongside the freely available audio recording on this page. Timestamps within the transcript are designed to help you navigate the audio should the corresponding text be unclear. The machine-assisted output provided is partly edited and is designed as a guide.:
Operator:
00:02 Welcome to the Eversource Energy 2021 Year End Results Conference Call. My name is John, I'll be your operator for today's call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please note, the conference is being recorded. 00:23 And I will now turn the call over to Jeff Kotkin.
Jeff Kotkin:
00:26 Thank you, John. Good morning and thank you for joining us. I'm Jeff Kotkin, Eversource Energy's Vice President for Investor Relations. During this call, we'll be referencing slides that we posted last night on our website. And as you can see on Slide 1, some of the statements made during this investor call may be forward-looking as defined within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. 00:51 These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risk and uncertainty, which may cause the actual results to differ materially from forecasts and projections. These factors are set forth in the news release issued yesterday afternoon. Additional information about the various factors that may cause actual results to differ can be found in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2021. 01:21 Additionally, our explanation of how and why we use certain non-GAAP measures and how those measures reconcile to GAAP results is contained within our news release and the slides we posted last night and in our most recent 10-K and 10-Q. Speaking today will be Joe Nolan, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Phil Lembo, our Executive Vice President and CFO. Also joining us today are John Moreira, our Treasurer and Senior VP for Finance and Regulatory; and Jay Buth, our VP and Controller. 01:54 Now I will turn to Slide 3 and turn over the call to Joe.
Joseph Nolan:
01:59 Good morning. Thank you, Jeff. I will start with an overview of our teams 2021 operating accomplishments, update you on offshore wind projects, and discuss recent progress executing our clean energy strategy. I will then turn it over to Phil for a review of our financial performance, a new five-year forecast. 02:23 We accomplished a great deal in 2021. As you can see on Slide 4, we had a terrific year operationally. We were able to put closure around a challenge set of regulatory proceedings in Connecticut. We made very significant progress on offshore wind projects and we have enthusiastically engaged the entire company around our target of having operations be carbon neutral by 2030. 02:50 Turning to Slide 5 and operations. You can see that our electric service reliability and restoration performance were top decile and top quartile respectfully. And our safety metrics as well, we're well above average. We continue to invest to enhance our customers electric service reliability and the results are apparent. Even during a year, where we had 20 major storm events in dozens of less severe events around our three states. 03:23 We also continue to refine our emergency response efforts, which were on display again just 2.5 weeks ago, when a weekend blizzard clobbered South Massachusetts with hurricane force winds and snow depths up to 2.5 feet. Thousands of our employees and contractors work through biting cold to restore about 300,000 outages. Winds were still howling after the snowfall ended. But our crews were able to get our customers back online within two days. 03:56 Most of our storm damage was pre-related. We continue to work closely with our regulators in the communities we serve to ensure that we are installing more resilient equipment on our system and addressing the heavy vegetation along our roadways. We are committed to making the important investments needed to maintain high levels of electric service reliability and providing the grid resiliency needed to support our region's aggressive clean energy goals. In addition, we continue to accelerate the replacement of our most leak prone natural gas in water infrastructure. 04:39 Turning to Slide 6, you can see that despite strong results, we like many of the high performing utilities underperformed both our peers and the broader markets in 2021 from a total return standpoint. This comes after some very strong years of relative outperformance by Eversource that continues to place our medium and long-term total return significantly above the EEI Index. 05:11 There are solid reasons for our strong long-term record. First, since the 2012 merger that created Eversource, we have consistently achieved short-term and long-term earnings per share growth of about 6%. Going forward, we continue to expect our regulated businesses to support EPS growth in the upper half of the range of 5% to 7%. That earnings growth has enabled us to achieve attractive long-term dividend growth as well. 05:46 As you can see on Slide 7, earlier this month, our Board approved a $0.14 per share increase in our annualized dividend, an increase that is consistent with our long-term growth projection. Not only is that level of dividend growth attractive to our investors, the low-60's payout ratio that it represents allows us to reinvest more than $500 million of earnings annually back into our business, reducing our incremental debt needs and supporting our strong credit rating. 06:23 Turning to Slide 8, our offshore wind business had more positive developments over the past 13 months than we experienced over the previous three years combined. Last week, as you can see on the slide, New York Governor, Hochul joined in breaking ground on South Fork, the first offshore wind project we are building under our 50-50 partnership with Orsted. Wind based construction has convinced -- has commenced on Long Island with 130-megawatt, 12 turbine project will connect into Long Island Power Authority grid, greatly -- providing greatly needed source of clean power. We expect South Fork to begin operating in late 2023 and thank the federal, state and local regulators and elected officials who have worked on the review of this project for years. 07:20 2021 also was a pivotal year of our too much larger projects Revolution Wind and Sunrise Wind. As you can see on Slide 9, we are well into the federal and state siting process for both projects. Last year, the Bureau of Ocean in Energy Management set schedules for review of those two projects, which we expect will culminate in the final siting approvals in the second half of 2023. Assuming those schedules are met, we expect both projects to enter service in 2025 with Revolution Wind likely entering service first. 08:01 We have made significant progress, securing materials and services for our three projects. We have 80% of the cost of the portfolio walked in. It seems that every few weeks, we are announcing another contract. Many of those contracts are with domestic manufacturers and service providers that are located in states where we are contracting for our offshore wind projects. 08:26 Slide 10 as an overview of some of the publicly announced contracts. However, over just the past few months, we have seen higher than planned cost for such items as offshore wind foundations, serve installation vessels in logistics, as well as offshore substations. Orsted reference some of these cost increases during its Investor Call two weeks ago. The pandemic and global growth in offshore wind have rapidly tighten the market in supply chain for offshore goods and services. Fortunately, we procured the larger scopes of work prior to the inflationary pressure taking hold. 09:10 Our wind turbine agreement with Siemens and wind turbine installation vessel charter with Dominion Energy, which makes up a significant portion of the project's costs are two prime examples. Throughout the projects, we and our partner Orsted have been successful in finding ways to offset increases with savings in other areas. I am optimistic that our teams will find additional improvements opportunities as we move forward with the projects. 09:42 One of our key contracts is for the Connecticut State Pier in New London, the State of Connecticut, Eversource and Orsted are funding a $200 million project to create an important staging area for offshore wind construction, including our South Fork Wind, Revolution Wind and Sunrise Wind projects. It is probably the best site for this work between Norfolk, Virginia and Halifax, Nova Scotia, in only 60 to 65 miles from our nearest turbine locations. 10:17 As you can see on Slide 11, the Connecticut Port Authority commenced onshore work last summer. In a couple of months ago, the authority received approval from the Army Corps of Engineers for the in-water construction. We consider the New London lease to be a tremendous source of future economic development with the State of Connecticut and a key strategic advantage for our partnership. 10:41 The site is quite close to our 550 square miles area, where we and Orsted expect to build projects with at least 4,000 megawatts over the coming years. We expect to continue to seek new opportunities for our lease area of Massachusetts, while continuing to be disciplined and strategic in our bidding. In Massachusetts, Governor Baker has proposed new energy legislation that among other items could amend certain restrictive pricing language that contributed to having only two bidders in the states most recent offshore wind RFP. The bill is currently in the house. It is expected to move on to the Senate during the current legislative session that ends in mid-July. We will keep you apprised of its progress. 11:33 Separately, as many of you are aware, the Eversource, Orsted joint venture did not seek to be pre-qualify for next week's New York Bight Auction. We are very comfortable with our current uncommitted acreage and think it's strategically located to provide us with a competitive advantage and future RFP's in New England and New York. Once the Bight auction is complete, our understanding is that New York likely will move swiftly to its next offshore wind RFP. Our offshore wind partnership is just one of several major initiatives we have underway to help our states combat climate change. At the same time, we are focused on reducing emissions within our own operations. 12:22 Slide 12 notes that the five key areas, where we are seeking to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, in our efforts to be carbon neutral by 2030. No U.S. utility or natural gas utility has a more aggressive target date for achieving carbon neutrality for Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions. We are currently looking to enhance our climate leadership by taking a closer look at emissions across the value chain, including examining what a science-based target would entail for a company with our profile. This includes downstream emissions from our customers energy use. Clearly, our energy efficiency programs offer many benefits in this regard. 13:12 Last year, we invested approximately $600 million on initiatives that will help our customers, reduce their lifetime greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 4 million tonnes. Our new DPU approved three year energy efficiency plan will expand those efforts with the growing focus on electrification. It will provide our Massachusetts electric and natural gas customers with the tools necessary to meaningfully reduce their carbon footprint and help place to state on the path to be net GHG neutral by 2050. 13:53 The $1.7 billion plan maintains our longstanding mission of helping all residents and businesses reduce their energy usage and manage energy costs. And it is also focused on service to customers and environmental justice communities and low and moderate-income households. Through our (ph) now approved programs, we expect to electrifying more than 23,000 new and existing residential households, as well as more than 20 million square feet of commercial space. 14:30 Separately, NSTAR Gas last month rolled out an innovative community geothermal project for Framingham, Massachusetts that was enabled in our 2020 NSTAR Gas rate decision. It is shown on Slide 13. We are also preparing an integrated program to combine our opportunity to build more rate based solar in Massachusetts. With the potential to tie in storage in microgrids, we expect to file initial proposed projects with the DPU within a few months. This is part of our comprehensive climate resilience efforts that are consistent with the goals of state policy makers. 15:15 Finally, I want to comment on our relationships in Connecticut. Compared with the year ago, I believe we are in much better place. Our October rate settlement was approved by PURA and significant customer credits lowered CL&P customer bills in December of 2021 and January of 2022. PURA has issued final audits on storage and electric vehicle programs, which are now being launched. We sense a broad level of support for AMI, as it lowers costs and improves service to customers, significantly advances the pace of integration of renewable energy resources and enables achievement of the state's clean energy goals. We believe PURA will move forward with the docket in approve its deployment at some point later this year. 16:09 Thanks again for your time. I will now turn the call over to Phil Lembo.
Philip Lembo:
16:16 Thank you, Joe. And this morning, I'm going to cover several areas, 2021 results, our 2022 earnings guidance and updated five-year regulated investment plan and long-term outlook, an update on some of the current regulatory proceedings, and finally, additional details around our offshore wind investment plan. 16:41 So let me get started. Start with the 2021 results on Slide 15. Our GAAP earnings for 2021 were $3.54 per share compared to $3.55 in 2020. In the fourth quarter of 2021, GAAP earnings were $0.89 per share compared with GAAP earnings of $0.79 in the fourth quarter of 2020. All those periods include acquisition costs primarily related to our purchase in 2020 of the assets of Columbia Gas in Massachusetts, which we now call Eversource Gas of Massachusetts or EGMA. 17:23 As I noted on our third quarter call, 2021 full year results also include charges related to the settlement agreement in Connecticut. Excluding those non-recurring charges, we earned $3.86 per share in 2021, that's up 6% from $3.64 in 2020. For the fourth quarter, excluding these charges, we earned $0.91 per share in 2021 compared with earnings of $0.85 in the fourth quarter of 2020. 17:59 To break down the earnings into segments, Electric Transmission earned $1.58 per share for the full year 2021 compared with earnings of $1.48 in 2020. Higher earnings resulted from continued investment in our transmission system, we invested just over $1.1 billion in our transmission facilities in 2021, that's compared to just about $960 million -- $964 million to be precise in 2020. And that's for -- the reason for that was, it's mostly replacing obsolete equipment and improving reliability and resilience in the region. 18:37 Our Electric Distribution segment earned $1.61 per share in 2020. Excluding the settlement charge, this compared to $1.60 in 2020. The higher revenues were largely offset by higher O&M, depreciation, property tax and interest expense. And really these higher expenses stem from our ongoing investments to improve service and reliability for our customers. We invested about $1.25 billion in our electric distribution system in 2021 and this is up from just under $1.2 billion in 2020. 19:20 Our Natural Gas Distribution segment earned $0.59 per share in 2021 compared with earnings of $0.40 in 2020. This growth was driven primarily by having a full year of EGMA earnings included in our financials in 2021. And this is compared to less than three months of EGMA earnings in 2020. This also includes the ongoing investment in safety and reliability of our natural gas systems, where we invested about $800 million in 2021. 19:57 Our Water Distribution segment earned $0.11 per share in 2021 and this is down a $0.01 from $0.12 in 2020. The small decline primarily reflects the sale of the water delivery system around Hingham, Massachusetts that occurred in 2020. We continue to invest in clean and reliable water delivery with investments in our water segment totaling $144 million in 2021. This is up 13% from the prior year and about double from where it was when we first acquired Aquarion in 2017. 20:36 Excluding acquisition-related charges, the Eversource Parent segment lost $0.03 per share in 2021 compared to earnings of $0.04 in 2020. This change is largely due to a higher effective tax rate. Overall, as Joe covered in his remarks, we're very pleased with the strong year we had as we successfully overcame many challenges and delivered very positive results for our customers and for all of our stakeholders. 21:03 From 2021 results, I'll turn to our 2022 guidance in Slide 16. We're projecting recurring earnings of between $4 and $4.17 per share this year compared with $3.86, we earned in 2021. The midpoint of that range reflects a 6% increase over 2021. This range excludes the remaining cost we expect to incur as we complete the integration of EGMA operations from NiSource to Eversource systems in 2022. The primary growth drivers, our ongoing investment in our Electric Transmission segment, where we expect to invest approximately $1.1 billion in 2022. 21:51 The higher revenues from our Distribution segments, much of it relates to ongoing reliability and resiliency investments with existing recovery mechanisms in a performance-based revenue adjustment at NSTAR Electric. Those higher revenues will be partially offset by anticipated increase in depreciation, property tax and interest expense related to our customer focused investments. 22:21 On Slide 17, you see that we are reiterating our long-term earnings per share guidance in the upper half of the 5% to 7% growth rate from our core regulated businesses, with 2021 recurring EPS of $3.86 as the base level. To be clear, this guidance excludes earnings from offshore wind projects. 22:44 And on Slide 18, you can see that the primary driver of this growth is our regulated capital program, which continues to make our energy and water delivery system safer, more reliable and more resilient for our customers. We expect to invest approximately $18.1 billion in those systems over the five-year period of 2022 through 2026. That compares with $17 billion investment plan we discussed with you a year ago, which was for the period of 2021 through 2025. 23:20 On the distribution side, we assume that we will invest nearly $400 million over the next five years on grid modernization and electric vehicle charging infrastructure in Massachusetts, which is somewhat above our recent spending levels there. We receive timely recovery of these investments with the return. In Connecticut and New Hampshire, we have not assumed any grid mod investments at this time. 23:50 As you can see on Slide 19, these investments in our core business are projected to produce a rate base CAGR of approximately 7.1% over the forecast period. 24:02 Slide 20, list the investments that are included in the five-year estimate and what remains outside of it, built that we continue to exclude AMI from our core capital program. As Joe indicated in his remarks, dockets to implement AMI are very active in both Massachusetts and Connecticut and may be concluded later this year. However, they are not yet at the point where we should be including them in our capital forecast. Altogether, implementing AMI in the two states would require about $1 billion of investment in order to deliver long-term customer savings, enhance grid resiliency, and enable clean energy benefits. 24:52 Also excluded from our five-year forecast or certain transmission investment opportunities ISO New England studies indicate that about $500 million of onshore investment would be needed to interconnect nearly 3,000 megawatts of offshore wind through Cape Cod in the Southeastern portion of our service territory. Since the nature and timing of these investments are still under evaluation, we have excluded it from our capital guidance. 25:25 I should emphasize that we would expect such projects to be incremental investments in our core regulated business. They are not related to our three offshore wind projects, which as you saw in the earlier slide connect through New York and Rhode Island. So in addition, it is also becoming clear that significant additional transmission investment beyond the $500 million will be needed to reliably tie in the 9,000 megawatt of offshore wind that Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island are targeting. These investments will extend beyond our forecast period and such are not included, they are excluded from the forecast. 26:09 Finishing up my discussion on the regulated business, I'll first turn to a review of our current regulatory items. As you can see on Slide 21, we continue to await FERC's ruling on several items. The first of the four complaints that were filed beginning back in 2011 challenging the return on equity authorized for all the New England electric transmission owners. The others are generic dockets. One, looking at 50 basis point RTO adder and another looking at transmission incentives. 26:45 On the distribution side, we are currently operating under multi-year rate plans in most of our distribution jurisdictions. CL&P's base rate freeze was approved as part of the comprehensive settlement Joe mentioned earlier. PSNH is currently in the second year of a multi-year rate plan. Our two Massachusetts natural gas delivery utilities are operating in the early years of eight and 10-year rate plans. Yankee Gas is nearing the four-year mark since its most recent rate review and we are currently evaluating when its next review will take place. Therefore, our primary rate review this year will be at NSTAR Electric in Massachusetts. 27:33 Slide 22 covers the key elements of the review. We filed it a month ago and expect a decision around December 1. With new rates to take effect at the beginning of 2023. There were several components to the filing and a couple of the key ones I noted on the slide. 27:54 So let me pause here to summarize. We expect to deliver another very positive year performance for our customers, shareholders and all stakeholders in 2022. Our long-term earnings growth continues to be in the upper half of the 5% to 7% range through 2026 from our core regulated business. Our long-term growth rate is supported by a projected rate base growth of 7.1%. We have upside opportunities in the areas of grid modernization, AMI and incremental transmission development that are not part of our current forecast. The investments I've discussed thus far has been in our regulated business. 28:42 Now I'll turn to our offshore wind partnership with Orsted. Joe mentioned earlier, our JV with Orsted has signed contracts in place for about 1,760 megawatts of offshore wind and we've locked in approximately 80% of the cost we need to bring our three projects into service. To date, we've invested about $1.2 billion in the JV, which include some development and acquisition costs that are not directly related to the three projects. 29:10 In 2022, we expect to invest an additional $900 million to $1 billion in the three projects. Over the remaining years of our forecast, we expect to invest an additional $3 billion to $3.6 billion to complete and bring into service all three projects. These estimates fully reflect certain cost increases that we've encountered over the past few months that we're covered earlier and Joe's remarks, as well as our estimates of our cost going forward. 29:45 Last year, we told investors that we would provide more visibility into our financial expectations for our offshore wind investments. So providing you with a range of the expected investment levels over the next several years as part of that. And as we said before, the benefit on earnings from the large projects into service in 2025 is not projected to be significant. However, assuming Revolution Wind and Sunrise Wind into service in 2025, we expect offshore wind earnings to add between 6% to 8% to the net income we expect from our core regulated business in 2026. 30:29 The benefit on Eversource's cash flow beginning in 2026 is likely to be much more significant. Since Eversource is currently a cash taxpayer and we expect to remain one, we expect to use investment tax credits and accelerated depreciation for tax purposes in a highly efficient and effective manner and that's just based on today's tax code. Changes are currently being considered in Congress to spur more clean energy investment that could significantly enhance our projected cash flows and returns. 31:03 Potential changes are include utilization of a direct pay option, allowing an increase of tax credits to 40% for meeting certain domestic content requirements and raising production tax credits to the ITC equivalent of 30%. Any of these potential changes could have significant positive implications for this business and cash flows and none of these changes is reflected in the offshore wind guidance that I noted earlier. 31:40 Historically, we have guided that our offshore wind projects were expected to generate mid-teens returns based on a standard Eversource 60-40 debt equity structure. Those returns are higher are achievable with enhanced clean energy benefits contemplated by the Build Back Better Plan. But even with no changes to the current tax code, we now expect our offshore wind equity returns to be in the 11% to 13% range. So still accretive for the Eversource investor and highly supportive of our state's aggressive clean energy goals. 32:16 So to summarize offshore wind, our projects are making excellent project -- progress and continue to project in service date as previously forecast. We like other developers have very recently experienced higher costs associated with global supply chain and vendor capacity issues, but perhaps like most other U.S. developers we have a very clear line of sight on 80% of our costs and we continue to work closely with Orsted to identify savings opportunities. Despite some higher cost, we continue to project offshore wind earnings that are higher than in our regulated businesses. 32:58 To closing out today's call, I want to discuss our financing plans. As we've always done, we expect to finance our capital needs in a balanced way through a combination of internally generated funds, new debt issuances and common equity. We intend to maintain the existing strong credit ratings that we currently have at the rating agencies. Given the level of investments contemplated in this five-year outlook, we are planning to add an incremental $500 million to our equity needs over the next several years. 33:34 When we first discussed issuing equity three years ago, we outlined a multi-pronged plan to raise equity capital. The first $2 billion plan was comprised of $1.3 billion in block equity and $700 million through an at-the-market or ATM program. Separately, we announced that we would use about $100 million a year in treasury shares rather than open market purchases to fund our dividend reinvestment and employee stock programs. 34:04 So to help fund the updated investment plan and allow us to maintain our strong financial profile and credit ratings, we are now increasing the size of our expected ATM program by $500 million, so to a total of $1.2 billion. In addition, we expect to continue to fund our dividend reinvestment and employee stock programs using treasury shares and this is expected to be about $600 million over the next five years. 34:33 Finally, as you can see on Slide 23, we continue to remind investors of our long track record of positive performance. This slide shows that over the decade since Eversource was created. We have consistently achieved the earnings and dividend growth we targeted back in 2012, while achieving very strong operating performance. We also have significantly enhanced our ESG profile, which certainly ranks among the best if not the best in the industry. 35:09 So we thank you again for joining us this morning. And I'll turn the call back to Jeff for Q&A.
Jeff Kotkin:
35:14 Thank you, Phil. And I'm going to return it to John, just to remind you how to enter questions. John?
Operator:
35:21 Thank you. [Operator Instructions]
Jeff Kotkin:
35:34 Great. Thank you, John. Our first question this morning is from Steve Fleishman from Wolfe. Good morning, Steve.
Steve Fleishman:
35:41 Yeah. Hey. Good morning. Thanks everybody. Just maybe one question, just there's a lot of offshore wind disclosures that you gave here in the call. Is there a reason that none of this is in like the slide deck and the like, just some color on that? It's helpful to have it, but just, yeah.
Philip Lembo:
36:03 Yeah. It's all included in our 10-K, Steve, that is being released today too. So the nature of all those disclosures is included there.
Steve Fleishman:
36:19 Great. Okay.
Philip Lembo:
36:17 The combination of the comments and the 10-K, I think provide all the information.
Steve Fleishman:
36:25 Great. And then just to summarize, when I'm looking out to 2026 and thinking about the changes from the 6% to 7% regulated growth or upper half of 5% to 7%. We have -- in 2026 an incremental 6% to 8% net income, so that -- from offshore winds. So that's take the base of the growth rate of the regulated add 6% to 8% net income. And then my share count would basically be $500 million more of equity than we would have had previously.
Philip Lembo:
37:13 Is that your question, how do you get to the calculation. Yes, that.
Steve Fleishman:
37:15 Yeah. I'm just trying to kind of get to kind of thinking the thesis from kind of EPS.
Philip Lembo:
37:22 Yeah. It's a little bit more than the five, because what we did, we increase the -- that dividend reinvestment about $100 million we would, before it was like $100 million a year for five years or $500 million now, it's about $120 million for five years. So it's the incremental ATM program and then $100 million more on the DRIP side.
Steve Fleishman:
37:52 I'm sorry, if I wanted to look at -- so just on that -- the part on the DRIP side. So my recollection is you were doing $100 million a year for treasury and DRIP and now you're going to be doing, how much per year.
Philip Lembo:
38:09 It's just $120 million.
Steve Fleishman:
38:12 $120 million. Okay.
Philip Lembo:
38:13 Yes.
Steve Fleishman:
38:12 So basically over five years, that's another $100 million of equity incremental. But I mean $600 million overall incremental equity.
Philip Lembo:
38:23 Yes.
Steve Fleishman:
38:24 Okay. That's helpful. And then just in terms of just how are you feeling about the timelines on Revolution. I think there is a comment in the 10-K about that you're still analyzing those. Could you just give a little more color on that, please?
Joseph Nolan:
38:45 Sure. Good morning, Steve. We feel very, very good. We had a good opportunity to spend some time with the Interior Secretary last Friday. We've got tremendous support down there. All indications are that we continue to make great progress. We expect the Draft Environmental Impact Statement July of this year, our approvals are expected by 2023, with construction beginning shortly after that. So we don't anticipate, although, never say never, but things have been very, very smooth in the side. I had mentioned in my prepared remarks, we've accomplished more this past year than we have in the three previous years. So I'm very optimistic and of the schedules.
Steve Fleishman:
39:37 Last question, just I assume you probably updated the rating agencies on the offshore wind capital plan and your updated financing plan. And I just want to kind of check that you expect that this should kind of keep stable ratings.
Joseph Nolan:
39:55 Yes. We have -- as you can imagine, Steve, we are in frequent contact with the agencies, whether they'd be -- whether it's on capital spending plan, the regulatory developments in the various states are -- and such. So we have and we will continue to keep them updated throughout this year.
Steve Fleishman:
40:21 Great. I will let other people ask questions. Thanks so much for your time.
Joseph Nolan:
40:24 Thank you, Steve.
Jeff Kotkin:
40:26 Thanks, Steve. Next question is from Insoo Kim from Goldman. Good morning, Insoo.
Insoo Kim:
40:32 Hey. Good morning. First question also on offshore wind, could you just clarify, first of all, that the total costs, I guess of your 50%. I think I heard a $1 billion in 2022 about in another $3 billion to $3.5 billion over for many few years. Is that correct? So if I think about, what $4.5 billion for your state that's about $9 billion total for the entirety of the three different projects. So taking 1.7 gigawatts, 1.8 gigawatts for those reflect about $5,000 per KW all in. Is that the right ballpark from there?
Philip Lembo:
41:12 Doing the math that you just did that, where you would get to. Yes.
Insoo Kim:
41:17 Okay. And then related to that just thinking about the new offshore wind returns of 11 to 13 versus somewhere in that mid-teens you were talking prior. Given 80% of your project costs are largely locked in. So we're talking mostly in that other 20% of cost. Are those from a timing perspective where you have to lock in pretty soon at these inflated levels that get your estimates to a lower level or do you have more time to see potentially there is some of the subsiding of costs.
Joseph Nolan:
41:55 Yeah. Good morning. Thank you. Great question. So the remaining 20%, we think we have opportunities there to look. We're not going to rush to sign a contract, just to sign a contract. We are going to be thoughtful and deliberating. One of the things that has taken place in this offshore wind business, we were up -- I was up in Albany for the -- for our foundation construction, onshoring it here in America. So there's a lot of on the supply chain is really moving very fast. So we think the remaining 20% is a great opportunity here for us to have some competitive opportunities and not rush just to sign a contract for the sake us on the contract. So the long answer to your short question is we think we have some time for the remaining 20% and that we will remain disciplined in terms of executing any contracts.
Insoo Kim:
42:42 Got it. And just one quickly if I could. On that upper half of the 5% to 7% through ‘26 that embeds that investment of the offshore wind and the financing costs that are associated with that as well.
Philip Lembo:
42:56 Yes, correct. Yes. During construction, we basically capitalize the interest cost to the projects, but that does embed that in there into.
Insoo Kim:
43:08 Right. That makes sense. Thank you so much.
Joseph Nolan:
43:13 Thank you.
Jeff Kotkin:
43:13 Thanks, Insoo. Next question is from Durgesh Chopra from Evercore. Good morning, Durgesh.
Durgesh Chopra:
43:21 Hey. Good morning, Jeff. I just had one quick clarification as my other questions were asked. On the equity -- the equity, the $1.2 billion ATM and the $600 million through DRIP and others. That's for the regulated side, right? That doesn't cover your $4.5 billion roughly investment on the offshore side.
Joseph Nolan:
43:44 What we've incorporated in terms of financing incorporates what we believe is an appropriate level for our long range outlook that we've outlined here. So it's not a plan that you set it and forget it, right, like the commercial you put it in the oven and set it and forget it, but this is something we continuously will monitor. We'll look at our plan, including our financing needs and if there are adjustments that are needed as we move through the next few years, we'll do that. But right now that what I've indicated to you is to support the full investment activities that I've outlined.
Durgesh Chopra:
44:26 Got it. Thanks. That's all I had guys. Thank you.
Jeff Kotkin:
44:30 All right. Thank you, Durgesh. Next question is from Nick Campanella from Credit Suisse. Welcome to our call, Nick.
Nick Campanella:
44:38 Hey. Thanks a lot, everyone. Really appreciate the time. I guess just -- thanks for the color on the offshore wind stuff. I'm just looking at the base business O&M, combating inflation, you've done a pretty good job of keeping things flat historically. Just what's in your forecast in this five-year plan for O&M.
Philip Lembo:
45:00 In the long range forecast, it's maintaining that same approach in that flat to maybe up slightly as we move through, but certainly well below sort of an inflation level. We've been very good about finding efficiencies and opportunities in our processes when we go in for rate cases -- distribution rate cases. We'd like to be able to portray that costs are lower today than they were X years ago, when we went into the previous case. So we're looking to maintain that disciplined on our O&M costs and keep them flattish they might go up slightly, but in that flat to less than 1% level.
Nick Campanella:
45:52 Got it. That's really helpful. And then, I guess, just like looking at the guide $4, $4.17 of $0.17 range. I think it's just a bit wider than what you've historically provided in ‘21 and ‘20. Is that just law of large numbers playing out or are you kind of seeing higher volatility in the base businesses?
Philip Lembo:
46:14 I think it's a combination. Some of it is just the numbers are bigger. I mean, in that range, if you go back four or five years, it was maybe $0.10 and then it was $0.15. So it has -- as the numbers have grown sort of the range around that has grown. And so it's -- there is nothing to read into it other than that, as I said, the midpoint is really in that 6% area.
Nick Campanella:
46:44 Thanks a lot.
Jeff Kotkin:
46:46 All right. Thank you, Nick. Next question is from Angie Storozynski from Seaport. Good morning, Angie.
Angie Storozynski:
46:53 Good morning. I just had a one follow-up on offshore wind. So you guys mentioned the 11% to 13%, are we talking about levered IRR's? And then, secondly, is there any difference in your sufficient for profitability of the initial project versus those that are coming online in ’25?
Philip Lembo:
47:14 I didn't catch the last part of your question, but the first part is the number is a return on equity. So that's, I think worse that may talk about IRR's. But we've always for our investors, they like us to talk in terms of ROE, so it's the return on equity numbers.
Angie Storozynski:
47:35 So my second question -- yeah. The second question was, is there -- I mean, I assume that it's an average return across the four projects. So is there, for example, higher profitability or higher returns on the initial projects coming online. And as time goes by, as those inflation pressures increase, potentially, then those projects that come online later have lower returns.
Philip Lembo:
48:07 No. The number we've always tried to talk about it as an average portfolio. So our portfolio of the three projects. Just keep in mind though, when you look at the size South Fork is much smaller than the other two. So by definition, just due to size, it's going to have less contribution when it comes online. But the numbers we're talking about a kind of the portfolio number.
Angie Storozynski:
48:36 Very good. Thank you.
Jeff Kotkin:
48:37 Thank you, Angie. Next question is from Sophie Karp from KeyBanc. Good morning, Sophie.
Sophie Karp:
48:44 Hi. Good morning, guys. Thank you for taking my questions. I have a couple of questions here. First on the offshore wind and just broadly speaking, maybe on your CapEx program. So you have a sizable portion of the locked-in, but could you discuss where you still have some sensitivities to price inflation from the pricing maybe how much is that? Is the escalators in some of the parts that are already locked in otherwise or is that all concentrated in the kind of 20% that's not locked in? Any color on that would be helpful.
Philip Lembo:
49:21 Yeah. I'd say, essentially, it's in the 20% that's not locked in that there is still discussions on certain contracts for certain projects that we're working through with our joint venture partner. But I'd say, the main -- the more significant items are just the ones that haven't been done yet as opposed to anything special escalation wise in the existing 80%.
Sophie Karp:
49:56 Got it Thank you. And my second question was on the going to surprise energy bills, that people are seeing. And some of your peers in the Northeast have been in the press lately with their customers who have seen surprise bills on the energy component for that, [indiscernible] right and that creates potentially political overhangs for this -- for your peers. What are you seeing in your territory, because you're pretty far north and I know historically it's been -- it could be an issue? What are you seeing this winter and how you guys explain to that situation that it arises?
Joseph Nolan:
50:30 Yeah. So we get out in front of this in the fall. We spent a lot of time with our regulators with the administration with the Governor's to kind of overt our customers of these -- of this volatility in the marketplace. I think I will tell you it was well received by all of our regulators key stakeholders. I think we do a very good job and around hedging and I think that we have secured an awful lot. So the shocks that I think some folks are seeing. I mean, it certainly our customers, although, it's you never like to have an increase. 51:05 I do think that they understood and they were able to prepare and plan for it. We did a lot of outbound calling to get our customers to look around some -- to do some budget billing. So that allows them to kind of spread it out and take some of the peaks off. And I think that went a long way. And obviously, we spent a lot of time around energy efficiency. So I think all of those drivers, no one likes to see a bill increase, but I think if you inform customers and they understand it's coming , they were able to properly prepared for it.
Sophie Karp:
51:45 Very good. Thank you.
Jeff Kotkin:
51:46 Thank you, Sophie. Next question is from Julien from Bank of America. Good morning, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
51:53 Hey. Good morning, team. Thanks for the opportunity to connect. Just wanted to follow-up in brief here, I'm just reconciling the percentages that you talked about a moment ago, on the 6% to 8% additive, say by ‘26 year. It seems like that implies something in the order of magnitude of like a $140 million-ish of net income. I just want to reconcile that against the total quantum of CapEx that you all are contemplating investing here, right. If you think about a ballpark number like $5.5 billion of CapEx, what kind of equity ratio and ROE are you trying to back into it. Because if I look at 12% ROE and say a 40% equity ratio, it looks like it might be the mid-200's of net income. 52:40 So I just want to reconcile what approach we should be taking? Are you employing more leverage in the offshore effort here? And that's how you get the ROE will higher here? Or just how does that math tie between the two approaches. I'm sorry to go back on the call here.
Philip Lembo:
52:54 Yeah. No, that's a great question. Certainly, your estimate of 2026 offshore wind would be based on your estimate of where we're going to be in terms of the base core business, right, because assuming whatever growth assumption you use within our guidance for what our net income will be in 2026. That could -- that's going to trigger your 6% to 8% calculation. So that could be higher than the number that you've thrown out there, but it certainly your calculation. That could be slightly better leverage contribution as we look out around the edges of the offshore wind capital structure versus the regulated business capital structure. As we get approval for the regulated business capital structure is also more beneficial tax benefits on the offshore wind side that enable accelerated depreciation makers, depreciation were able to take that and use that efficiently given our tax profile. So those are just some of the things. Yeah.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
54:23 Got it. And just to clarify that super quick, the 5% to 7% in the upper half that applies through ‘26, right. Just to make sure I heard you right on that. And then, if I can just to clarify that the tax piece of it, because you brought it up there a second ago, how are you thinking about electing, right? I mean, given the higher like that might be beneficial for an ITC versus the PTC election here. Can you talk about the ITC election decision? And then what's the amortization period for that potentially to calculate that ROE. I think that might be one of the other discrepancies in the number.
Philip Lembo:
54:59 It could be. And certainly, those tax items are kind of evolving through. And as you can imagine, so there could be some -- if that -- there is going to be benefits from a clean energy bill, maybe it's called Build Back Better or something like that, that could enhance the PTC rate. So I think that's an issue that we are -- we ourselves in our models have run it different ways and I think that it will become a lot clearer probably in the next 12 months. What would be the best approach, but certainly it's something that is a consideration.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
55:47 Got it. But the baseline ITC amortization period, I know we've talked about this in the past. Do you have a sense of what that would be if you ended up like that?
Philip Lembo:
55:56 Yeah. Typically, it's over the life of the asset.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
55:59 Okay, sorry. Thank you very much for the patience.
Philip Lembo:
56:03 Yeah. No problem. Thank you.
Jeff Kotkin:
56:06 All right. Thank you, Julien. Our next question is from Andrew Weisel from Scotia. Good morning, Andrew.
Andrew Weisel:
56:13 Hi. Good morning, everybody. First a question on the dividends. How are you thinking about the pace of growth relative to consolidated earnings versus regulated earnings? In other words, should we expect 6% growth in the dividend through 2026, maybe something higher since you're expecting the upper half of the range, maybe higher because of offshore? Or could it be something lighter given the capital need to finance all the CapEx.
Philip Lembo:
56:39 Our guidance is that we expect our dividend growth to be in line with our overall Eversource earnings growth. So that $0.005 or $0.01 on the dividend makes -- could make it a point something makes a difference. But we've consistently been in that range we've grown the dividend in line and maybe just slightly higher even than the earnings growth of Eversource. So that's the outlook that we would take going forward.
Andrew Weisel:
57:17 Okay. But it was 5.7 most recently, right. That's a little below the midpoint. Was there any behind that?
Philip Lembo:
57:23 That's what I was just trying to say is that, you put another $0.01 on 14, it brings it up to 6.2%. I mean, traditionally, we've kept our dividend, we've had a few years at one rate, we had a few years at $0.12 on a few years at $0.13. So we decided to just keep it two years at the $0.14, it's 5.8%. Another $0.01 would have moved it over. So it -- do you raise that $0.005 to get into exactly 6%. But overall, when you look at two or three years, when you look at the trend. It's very consistent with our earnings growth.
Andrew Weisel:
58:05 Okay. Makes sense. Yeah. I'll try not to obsess of around in. One other question, this might just be the math of it, but the rate base CAGR I believe it was 8.0% now at 7.1% that caught my eyes, especially with the big increase to the CapEx plan, I think it was 6.5% increase with the roll forward. How do we reconcile that? Is that just a higher rate -- the higher base starting point?
Philip Lembo:
58:29 Yes, it is. And if you recall, last year, it was a -- I'd say, maybe unusually high in the sense that we added the Eversource Gas of Massachusetts, the assets that we purchased from NiSource. So in the previous five-year rate base growth, it was kind of zero in there for that. And then we put -- then we're adding a whole company to the CapEx plan, so just the math of it. Now we have that EGMA in the base. So the growth is reflects that.
Andrew Weisel:
59:05 That makes sense. Thank you very much.
Philip Lembo:
59:09 You're welcome.
Jeff Kotkin:
59:09 Thanks, Andrew. Our next question is from David Arcaro from Morgan Stanley. Good morning, David.
David Arcaro:
59:16 Hey. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Yeah. I was wondering, I appreciate all the disclosure around offshore wind and the net income contribution in 2026. I was wondering if you could just characterize how much of a run rate level that might be. In other words, is that going to be or maybe talk about some elements of how it could be lumpy beyond 2026 or is that going to be a fairly steady level to look for over the course of the contract? Thanks.
Philip Lembo:
59:48 Well, David, our guidance goes through 2020 sets. So I'll preface my answer by saying it that way. What -- it shouldn't be lumpy. There are certain maybe tax items in particular years that could move things around a little bit. And I think to a previous question that was asked. We're still finalizing sort of what the appropriate tax election would be. So I mean, that could make it a little bit lumpy at some years. One of our contracts as an escalator in it that could -- that would vote towards improving that run rate going forward. 60:41 Once the projects go into the service. The biggest cost that you're going out the door is sort of O&M cost and we think we would have some opportunities to enhance that, we have a vessel strategy lined up for that O&M activity. So we think that could actually improve the years following et cetera. Certainly, if you have other tax changes going forward. That's not even considering, if there's more tax implications. But I think tax items might be one of the things that moves that's the numbers around a little bit more than others.
David Arcaro:
61:35 Got it. That's helpful color. Then maybe on the regular CapEx side of things, I was wondering, did you mentioned that there could be more incremental utility scale solar in Massachusetts and would that be further upside to the plan. Wondering if there's any potential size or scale or quantification you might be able to provide around that. And then also similar thing just would be transmission in New England beyond short transmission piece of bringing offshore wind into the system, the $500 million that you mentioned. Is there any preference for Eversource to build that given it's in your service territory or is that going to be kind of spread around New England transmission owners, potentially? Thanks.
Joseph Nolan:
62:25 Well, I'll start with the last one, because there is a preference. We believe that we are the premier transmission builder in the region, our track record speaks for itself and our ability to plan projects to work closely with ISO to get them in service on time and below budget. And just the competitive process that the ISO ran for a power plant that was retiring in Everett, Massachusetts would demonstrate that we're able to come up with the most creative solutions in the most cost-effective way and get them done on or ahead of schedule and below budget. So we definitely believe that we are a leading candidate to provide that type of transmission build. 63:20 So just to go -- to continue with transmission at this kind of two components, that's not in the forecast or that are not in the forecast. One is sort of the immediate this $500 million that's in the forecast period that has been identified for existing contracts. And then -- even though, we on our development side have won the contracts, there is regulated transmission that's need -- this transmission build that's needed in our service territory and Cape Cod, because the landing area for a lot of that is there. So we are working on some of those activities right now, but did not put anything into the forecast. So that would be upside and I would expect that you'll see that we will have upside in that $500 million range. 64:11 In addition to that, the states are looking for more than the current offshore wind increasing to 9,000 megawatts is going to be a need for even more incremental capacity. And that cost is going to be probably higher in that -- the early years, you're using up some of the excess capacity or some of the existing, but when you start to narrow look for 9,000 megawatts more that's going to require more significant build-out to the interconnection points. That -- if it comes -- it would be near the end of our forecast, but then that would extend for many years beyond. So that's more of a longer-term optionality for the company. 65:04 In terms of rate based solar, we are -- in our plan, we don't think right now there is opportunity to increase our five-year forecast. There could be opportunities beyond that. We feel to build the 280 megawatts that we've identified for -- that's in our plan, that it's going to take us throughout that our forecast period to do that. We can revisit whether incremental build would be available beyond that time period. But right now, that's all -- that's in the forecast.
David Arcaro:
65:42 Okay. Great. That makes sense. Thanks.
Jeff Kotkin:
65:45 All right. Thank you, David. Next question is from Paul Patterson from Glenrock. Good morning, Paul.
Paul Patterson:
65:52 Hey. Good morning, guys.
Joseph Nolan:
65:55 Hey, Paul.
Paul Patterson:
65:57 Just -- sorry, just to go back to offshore wind, but just I want to make sure I've got the numbers correct. I'm so calculating including what you guys have invested today the total number now $4.3 billion to $5.8 billion. Is that correct? And is that 11% to 13% ROE based on essentially 40% of that roughly speaking, that's sort of the -- are those the numbers.
Philip Lembo:
66:26 Yeah. Some of the numbers would include development costs that are not associated with the projects. So there is some work done on unused lease areas that we would allocated to future projects.
Paul Patterson:
66:47 Okay. So I guess, what I am -- okay, so that's why sort of -- so is the 11% to 13% associated with the 3.9 to 4.6 or is it a number or higher. I guess, it goes back to sort of start, that completely clear I guess, to me and I apologize for this. But just following along, I just what's the 11% to 13% based on I guess what's the total CapEx that's based on that? And I guess, that's 40% of that's roughly speaking what you guys have --
Philip Lembo:
67:22 It would be that -- the first time, you said 4.5, 5, the total number. So we've already invested some through 2020 -- through the end of 2021, that's about $1.2 billion. But what I was saying it's some of those costs in the $1.2 billion we've invested to date is for work on our unused leased area or for future development. So the project cost are slightly below that number and then we're looking to spend, invest $900 million to $1 billion in 2022 and $3 billion to $3.6 billion over the forecast period. So those -- adding those up, you get 4.7, 5.4 in that range for the total project cost.
Paul Patterson:
68:15 Okay. Great. And then just on the Massachusetts legislation, the Baker bill that you mentioned, it wasn't -- I apologize, but what is the -- what do you think the potential impact of that legislation might be. Could you just clarify that?
Joseph Nolan:
68:35 Sure, why appalled show. So as you know, Massachusetts had a provision in the legislation that allowed -- it didn't allow any future bids to be any higher than the previous bid. And that obviously, really hampered the marketplace in the bids. And so that's why the last RFP ended up with only two bidders, because it just wasn't -- it wasn't productive. You look at other states like Connecticut, you look at New York with a introduced the idea around economic development and other factors. It's not strictly price. And I think the Governor Baker, he recognize the fact that he was having an adverse impact on the potential group of bidders that could participate. So he is removing that cap. He is also encouraging economic development. And I think he sees all the benefits that states like Connecticut, states like New York and Rhode Island have witnessed with serious investments in the kind of supply chain or on offshore wind. So that legislation is going to be -- basically, it's going to remove the cap and allow much more vibrant RFP process in bidding process.
Paul Patterson:
69:57 Okay. My rest of the questions I think have been answered. Thanks so much. Have a good one.
Joseph Nolan:
70:03 Thank you.
Jeff Kotkin:
70:04 Thanks, Paul. Our next question is from Jeremy Tonet from J.P. Morgan.
Ryan Karnish:
70:10 Hi. Good morning. It's actually Ryan on for Jeremy. Thanks for my question. Just one maybe mechanical one on the schedule. Can you just remind us on the Dominion vessel and the availability there and what are the logistics on utilizing that?
Joseph Nolan:
70:26 Sure. We are the first customer for that vessel. The team was down to Texas. They saw the construction underway, they're making significant progress. Dominion's very confident that the ship will be delivered to us on time, it was scheduled to be completed in 2023 as you know our schedule really begin construction in 2024. So we feel very, very good bought that. If the vehicle -- if the vessels delayed, we have a day per day carry on that. So it will just move forward and allow us to utilize it for the period of time that we need for those two projects.
Ryan Karnish:
71:14 Got it. Makes sense. And then just one on in Connecticut and appreciate the kind of positive updates there. But you guys kind of -- and it's still early stages, but this performance base rates kind of proceeding that's in early stages, any kind of expectations there. How you think it's going to might evolve over time and kind of changing the regulatory landscape.
Joseph Nolan:
71:34 I mean, I think if you look at Eversource in the states where we do a performance base rates here in Massachusetts. We performed very, very well. We were probably one of the early our adopters of that in this state. So we feel very confident about it. We're going to play an active role, obviously, and in any proceeding around performance-based rates. But I think if you look at our record, you look at our performance, as I had mentioned, what we did in 2021 and what the team did was extraordinary. I think that all of our metrics I think we hit the ball out of the park. And so we feel very, very good about it. And we'll play an active role, and we do very, very well in environments where there is performance-based rates.
Ryan Karnish:
72:17 Got it. Very helpful. Thank you for taking my questions.
Joseph Nolan:
72:24 All right. Thank you.
Jeff Kotkin:
72:23 Thanks, Ryan. Next question is from Steve Fleishman from Wolfe.
Steve Fleishman:
72:29 Yeah. Thanks. Sorry. I had one clarification question. I appreciate it. The -- wanted to -- I believe your 5% to 7% growth rate has included the $1 billion -- the prior $1.2 billion of equity that was in your plan. And I wanted to clarify whether the updated 5% to 7% growth rate includes the full $1.8 billion of equity in that.
Philip Lembo:
72:59 Yes, it does. Steve. It does it will include.
Steve Fleishman:
73:01 Okay. So essentially, the offshore wind net income benefit would all be net income without any more share count beyond what's the shares that are already embedded in your core growth rate funding?
Philip Lembo:
73:20 Yeah. Well, the core growth rate, when I say the shares are included in the core growth rate. Those shares or the plans for issuing equity covers sort of our investments that we are planning to make over the five-year period. We could -- depending on what the plan looks like if we have additional transmission investment, if the timing of certain offshore wind spend, if we move forward with AMI. We're certainly going to have to look at that CapEx and investment plan and make adjustments. But that is the plan at this stage for the foreseeable future.
Steve Fleishman:
74:01 That's good. And just any sense on kind of the pace of the equity issuance. I guess it would just be the ATM part of it?
Philip Lembo:
74:15 It's hard to say that the nature of an ATM is to be opportunistic in the marketplace. But I would think that we're looking to do that over the next few years type of issuance.
Steve Fleishman:
74:34 Yeah. Great. Thank you.
Philip Lembo:
74:37 Thanks, Steve.
Jeff Kotkin:
74:39 All right. Folks, thank you very much. We don't have any more questions in the queue. If you have any follow-ups, please give us a call or send us an e-mail. And have a great rest of your day.
Operator:
74:52 Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. That concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating and you may now disconnect.
Operator:
Welcome to the Eversource Energy Q3, 2021 results conference call. My name is Cheryl and I will be your Operator for today's call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later we will conduct a question-and-answer session during the question-and-answer session, if you'd like to ask a question, please press [Operator Instructions] on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded and I will now turn the call over to Jeffrey Kotkin. Sir, you may begin.
Jeffrey Kotkin :
Thank you, Cheryl. Good morning and thank you for joining us. I'm Jeffrey Kotkin, Eversource Energy's Vice President for Investor Relations. During this call, we'll be referencing slides that we posted last night on our website. And as you can see on Slide 1, some of the statements made during this investor call may be forward-looking as defined within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainty which may cause the actual results to differ materially from forecasts and projections. These factors are set forth in the news release issued yesterday. Additional information about the various factors that may cause actual results to differ can be found in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31st, 2020 and on our Form 10-Q for the 6 months ended June 30th, 2021. Additionally, our explanation of how and why we use certain non-GAAP measures and how those measures reconcile to GAAP results is contained within our news release and the slides we posted last night and in our most recent 10-K and 10-Q. Speaking today will be Joe Nolan, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Phil Lembo, our Executive Vice President and CFO. Also joining us today are John Moreira, our Treasurer and Senior VP for Finance and Regulatory; and Jay Buth, our VP and Controller. Now I will turn to Slide 3 and turn over the call to Joe.
Joseph Nolan :
Thank you, Jeff. We hope that all on the phone are safe and well, and we look forward to seeing many of you in person next week at the EEI Conference. I will cover a few topics this morning and then turn over the call to Phil to discuss our third quarter financial results in our regulatory activity. First, I want to discuss loss weeks Northeast, which impacted approximately 525,000 customers across our service territory. Our Eastern Massachusetts customers sustained the greatest damage with more than 450,000 customers impacted. That's over 35% of Eversources customers in Eastern Massachusetts. This storm was far less damaging in Connecticut, Western Massachusetts, and New Hampshire. So as we wrapped up the restoration in those areas, we were able to quickly redeploy resources to Southeastern Massachusetts, Cape Cod in Martha's Vineyard Areas that took the brunt of the storm. Our internal resources were supplemented by hundreds of crews from outside the region. And we were able to essentially complete the work over this past weekend. This experience underscores the benefits of a large TD organization. One where resources can be shifted based on the greatest need. Last year, it was Connecticut last week it was Massachusetts. Next time, it might be in New Hampshire. We have 9,300 dedicated employees all focused on providing the best possible experience for our customers. Lessons we learned last year in Connecticut, particularly regarding communication with municipalities have been vigorously applied this year. Our customers and community leaders have certainly noticed our enhancements and we have received many positive comments on our strong response. Customers are noting, that not all the best linemen in New England work for the New England Patriots. When storms have threatened us, and recall that we have had glancing blows from three tropical storms this summer in last week's events that I described at the beginning of my comments. I have been at the center of the action from before the storm hits into the last of our customers, has power restored. I believe that's critical for us to be outfront, visible, transparent, and collaborative during these major events. Something that has been difficult to do, as we all worked in a remote pandemic restricted environment for the last 18 months. Next, I want to discuss our Connecticut rate settlement. To start, I want to thank the parties from deep the Connecticut Attorney General's office, the Office of Consumer Council, and the States Industrial Consumers for being willing to sit down and work out a settlement that will yield meaningful in immediate bill credits to customers and strengthened the Connecticut focus in control at Connecticut Light and Power. In news reports, Governor Lamont, Attorney General William Tong, and state leaders were quoted as saying that the settlement provides customers with some well-deserved relief in the short term, greater local control and oversight, and an improved customer's experience. We agree. I also want to thank PURA for approving the settlement agreement last Wednesday. Phil will discuss settlement specifics in a moment, but we are very grateful to PURA for the opportunity to move forward on a positive note. Settling critical regulatory and legal disputes was a necessity to reset our relationship with key Connecticut stakeholders. We all want the state to move ahead on addressing critical energy and climate issues, and the outstanding disputes have the potential to delay some of this important work. Since becoming CEO this past spring, my top priority has been to strengthen our relationship in Connecticut. I have met regularly with key state policymakers, as well as business leaders and customers, underscoring our commitment to the state where the largest number of Eversource employees live and work. This will continue to be a strong focus for me going forward. Eversource is fully committed to providing each and every one of our 4.3 million electric, natural gas, and water customers across New England with exceptional service. With Connecticut temporary rate docket now behind us, we can move on to other important topics where progress has been hindered by the draining time and resources devoted to Storm Isaias and the interim rate reduction. Supporting the build-out of electric vehicle infrastructure, incenting the construction of customer owned energy storage, installing AMI, that is the clean energy future, and we will work together with our customers and policymakers to get there. Changing topics, I am going to cover some very positive developments in recent months concerning our offshore wind partnership with Orsted. You can see the status of our current projects on Slide 3. Each has advanced since our last earnings call. To start, our smaller project Southwark has received its final environmental impact statement, and we expect a [Indiscernible] decision to be posted later this month. BOEM 's project website anticipates a decision on self works construction and operating permit are [Indiscernible] in January of 2022. And we anticipate construction beginning early next year. We continue to expect commercial operation of the 12 turbines, 130 megawatt project by the end of 2023. In August we announced that Kiewit will commence construction of the project substation this month in Texas. Now we expect it to be installed in the summer of 2023. Moving to the 704 megawatt revolution wind project that will deliver clean power to Connecticut in Rhode Island. [Indiscernible] continues to anticipate a cop decision in July of 2023, which would support a 2025 in service date. State citing hearings have commenced. Finally, our largest project Sunrise wind, which will supply 924 megawatts to [Indiscernible]. We are looking for federal agencies to complete their final reviews in late 2023. A schedule that would support a late 2025 in service date. Last week, we announced that Sunrise will be the first offshore wind project in the U.S. that will utilize high voltage direct current technology. HVDC office advantages over AC technology when you used over long distances. In Sunrise, we'll have an approximately 100 mile submarine transmission cable from offshore energy production area to the grid connection in Brookhaven, Long Island, New York. We continue to project mid-teens equity returns for these 3 projects. The Biden administration continues to show significant support for offshore wind in both words and actions, targeting 30,000 megawatts of offshore turbines by 2030. We view our partnerships to Ocean Trex off of Massachusetts as the best offshore wind sites on the Atlantic Seaboard. Our leases are in close proximity to both the New England and New York markets. They enjoy strong offshore winds, particularly in the winter and they have modest ocean depths. They can hold at least 4,000 megawatts of offshore wind turbines, far more than the approximately 760 megawatts we currently have on the contract. We continue to exercise strong fiscal discipline in using the remaining offshore acreage that we have leased from the Federal Government. We did not bid into Massachusetts September RFP for up to 1,600 megawatts of offshore wind. Current Massachusetts bidding rules discouraged imaginative bid packages. Governor Baker and some Massachusetts policymakers are now recognizing that Massachusetts is not benefiting from the same level of economic development as states that place greater emphasis on infrastructure in supply chain development. As such, the governor recently filed legislation that would eliminate the state's current price gap. In Rhode Island, we're constructing a service vessel in the state. In Connecticut, we are partnering with the state on more than $200 million upgrade of the New London State Peer. The Peer will become the premier site in the entire Northeast for staging offshore wind development. Onshore construction is underway, which you can see from either I-95, our Amtraks nearby Boston to New York line. In in New York, I joined members of the Governor Hocus administration last month in announcing the largest single offshore wind supply chain contract award in New York to support the Sunrise project. The local Company rigs distiller, will construct advanced foundation components at the port on the Hudson near Albany. It's just the latest commitment we have made to New York, which also includes basing an offshore wind maintenance hub in Port Jefferson. We have an excellent relationship with New York policymakers. And that is where most of our currently contracted offshore wind capacity is headed. We look forward to bidding into future RFPs, where our strong mix of sites, skill-sets, disciplined bidding strategies in Orsted's vast offshore wind experience will make us a formidable contender in any competition that takes a broad look at the benefits of offshore wind. Now, I will turn the call over to Phil.
A - Philip Lembo:
Thank you, Joe. This morning, I will cover a few topics, our third quarter results, details about the Connecticut settlement. An update on grid modernization, electric vehicle initiatives, and to look at natural gas outlook for the coming winter. I will start with our results for the quarter, Slide 4, our GAAP earnings were $0.82 per share for the quarter, including $0.19 charge associated with the Connecticut electric rate settlement and $0.01 charge relating to our integration of Eversource Gas of Massachusetts. Overall, we experienced improved operating results at the electric transmission and distribution segments and lower results at the natural gas and water segments, as well as the [Indiscernible] and other. Our electric transmission business earned $0.40 per share in the Third Quarter of 2021, compared with earnings of $0.36 in the Third Quarter of last year, reflecting a higher level of necessary investment in our transmission facilities. Our electric distribution business, excluding charges related to the Connecticut rate settlement, earned $0.62 per share in the Third Quarter of 2021 compared with earnings of $0.60 in the Third Quarter of 2020. Higher distribution revenues were partially offset by higher O&M, depreciation, interest. and property taxes. Storm-related expenses remain a headwind for us, costing us a penny a share in the Third Quarter of 2021 compared to the same period in 2020 and a total of $0.05 a share more in 2021 than last year on a year-to-date basis. Our natural gas distribution business lost $0.06 per share in the Third Quarter of 2021 compared with a loss of $0.04 in the Third Quarter of 2020. Given the seasonal nature of customer usage, natural gas utilities tend to record losses over the summer months. Our natural gas segment now -- our natural gas segment loss is now about 50% larger as a result of the acquisition of Columbia Gas of Massachusetts assets back in the last October, and as you recall, we now refer to that franchise as Eversource Gas of Massachusetts. So Eversource Gas of Massachusetts lost about $0.03 per share in the quarter. It had no comparable amount in the third quarter of 2020. I think it's important to point out here that given this is the first full year for our Eversource Gas of Massachusetts or EGMA franchise, modeling its quarterly earnings contribution has varied widely across street estimates, at least the ones that I've seen. Just to sum investors underestimated the $0.14 per share positive contribution from EGMA in the First Quarter, I believe there may have been some underestimates of EGMA losses in the Third Quarter. As I said, EGMA lost $0.03 in the quarter, and it was not part of the Eversource family in the Third Quarter of 2020. I think going forward with the year's track record behind us, I'm sure that the estimates will better reflect the earnings pattern we have for that franchise going forward. Our Water Distribution Business, Aquarion, earned $0.05 per share in the Third Quarter of 2021 compared with earnings of $0.07 in the Third Quarter of 2020. The lower results were due primarily to the absence of the hang of Massachusetts water system that we sold at the end of July of 2020, the 17.5 million that we earned at our water segment in the Third Quarter of 2021 is more -- a more normalized level for that segment. Our parent and other earned $0.01 per share in the Third Quarter of 2021 compared with earnings of $0.03 in the Third Quarter of 2020. Lower earnings were primarily due to a higher effective tax rate. Our consolidated rate was 24.8% in the Third Quarter of 2021 compared with 23.7% in the Third Quarter of 2020. Turning to Slide 5, you can see that we have reiterated the $3.81 to $3.93, EPS guidance that we issued in February, that range excludes the $0.25 per share of charges related to our Connecticut settlement in storming related bill credits that we recognized in the first quarter of this year, as well as the transition costs related to the integration of the former Columbia Gas of Massachusetts. The assets into the Eversource System. Also, we project long term EPS growth in the upper half of the range of 5% to 7% through 2025, excluding the impact -- of the positive impact that we expect from our Offshore Wind projects. That growth is largely driven by our $17 billion, 5-year capital program and continued strong operational effectiveness throughout the business. For reference, our 5-year capital forecast is shown in the appendix and through September 30th, our capital expenditure's totaled $2.3 billion. From the financial results I'll turn to our recently approved Connecticut settlement on slide Number 6. Earlier Joe provided you with an overview, I just add a few additional details. The settlement calls for $65 million in rate credits to CL&P customers over the course of December of 2021 in January of 2022. And that's about in total $35 per customer over the two months for the typical residential customer. It provides another $10 million of shareholder pay benefits to customers who are most in need of help with their energy bills. Further, as part of the settlement [Indiscernible] superior court appeal of the $28.4 million total storm-related credits that customers first saw in their bills in September of '21. So these customers will continue -- they'll continue to flow back to customers through August of next year. As part of the settlement, the 90 basis point indefinite reduction of CL&P's distribution that will not be implemented. Additionally, the current 9.25% ROE in capital structure will remain in effect. This little void in the appeal of the interim rate reduction, and we'll withdraw the pending appeal of the 90-basis point reduction. Bill and P cannot implement new base distribution rates before January 1st, of 2024. Parties to the settlement agreed that this review satisfies the statutory requirement in Connecticut that all electric and natural gas distribution Company rates be reviewed once every 4 years, that's to determine whether they are just and reasonable. So as a result, the next statutory mandated review would be in late 2025. Since CL&P's last distribution rate case was effective in May of '18, the actual Company -- the Company's actual ROEs have generally ranged between 8.6% and 9%, with the latest reported quarter at 8.6%. There are some tracking mechanisms that will allow us to recover costs associated with certain new investments over the coming years such as those to improve reliability or implement grid modernization initiatives, but we'll not be able to obtain any additional revenues to offset higher wages, employee benefits costs, property taxes, and other inflationary items. We'll continue to provide superior service to our nearly 1.3 million CL&P customers will also be effectively managing our operations. Will certainly be a challenge but what I know that our entire CL&P and Eversource team is up to meeting. From the Connecticut settlement, I'll turn to our various grid mod AMI electric vehicle initiatives in Connecticut and Massachusetts. So first I'll turn to Slide 7 and cover the Connecticut programs. On October the 15th, CLP filed a final electric vehicle program designed documents for pure review and approval, including the proposed budget and program implementation plan for residential managed charging. PURA will conduct a review process with the final decision targeted for December the 8th. The program is planned to launch January 1st of 2022 and will support the States target of having at least a 125,000 electric vehicles on the road by the end of 2025. In terms of AMI in Connecticut, CL&P is preparing to file an updated proposal based on a straw proposal from PURA to have all our customers on AMI by the end of 2025. The date will need to replace more than 800,000 meters over the next -- to do that, we'll have to replace over 800,000 meters over the next several years. All together, moving CL&P fully to AMI would involve a capital investment of nearly $500 million we estimate, in meters and communication related technologies. In Massachusetts on slide 8, as we mentioned on our July earnings call, we have submitted nearly $200 million grid modernization plan to regulators for the 2022 through 2025 period. The vast majority of that investment would be capital. We expect a ruling on the entire program by the second quarter of 2022. Our Massachusetts AMI program is now being evaluated by the Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities with the decision expected in 2022. It would involve about $575 million of capital investments over multi-years from 2022 through 2027. And like Connecticut, we provide significant customer service, reliability, energy efficiency, grid modernization, and demand management improvements. Also in Massachusetts, the DPU is evaluating an extension of our electric vehicle program. The extension will provide investments of nearly $200 million over the next 4 years with about $68 million being capital investments. We currently expect a decision on this by mid-2022. Turning to Slide 9, we've been receiving regular questions over the past couple of months about the impact of higher natural gas prices on this winter's electric and natural gas supplies and prices. So I'll first start with supplies first, what do we have to supplies? Our 3 natural gas distribution companies are required to have access to enough natural gas to be able to serve our firm customers on the coldest day in the last 30 year period. We accomplished that through a combination of firm capacity contracts across multiple interstate pipeline systems, And through storage both inside and outside of our service territory. Our regulators in Connecticut in Massachusetts have had the foresight to allow us to maintain significant in-region LNG storage in Waterbury, Connecticut and Hopkinton and [Indiscernible], Massachusetts as well as various facilities that we purchased as part of the Columbia Gas of Massachusetts transaction. Although these facilities provide us with -- altogether, these facilities provide us with storage connected to our distribution system of nearly 6.5 billion cubic feet. Our regulators have also permitted us to require additional firm delivery capacity that was added to the Algonquin system in recent years through the AIM and Atlantic Bridge expansion projects. We've also acquired additional firm capacity on the Tennessee and Portland pipelines. So from a reliability standpoint, in supplies we consider ourselves very well prepared for the winter. In terms of price, our natural gas sources include a combination of stored gas, where the price has been fixed, and pipeline gas from Marcellus Shale basin that is priced based off of NYMEX related indices. Because of our firm pipeline capacity, we are able to purchase at the Marcellus -related price, not at the New England city gate price. You can see on the slide that we have in our deck that there is significant difference in pricing between the two. Nonetheless, even the Marcellus prices higher this year. And as of now we expect the commodity portion of natural gas bills to be approximately 20% higher than last winter's extremely low levels. Due to COVID, prices were pretty low last year and well, below levels we experienced a decade ago after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf of Mexico and Louisiana. Overall, including the distribution charge we expect natural gas heating bills will be up about 15% on average. That's about $30 a month to the average for a typical heating customer compared to last winter, and that's an average across our 3 natural gas distribution companies. While 15% increase is significant, it is far less than the more than 30% increase that propane heating customers are facing. And really 60% increase that's out there for home heating oil as the alternatives for customers. Of course, primary determinant of the total bill is usage. The autumn has been quite mild here in New England thus far and natural gas usage has been particularly low. Nonetheless, a bitterly cold month of December, January could cause natural gas cost to increase. Recognizing the stress that this situation could place on customers, we've been proactive. We've suggested to our regulators that we spread out the recovery of certain charges in a distribution portion of our bill to moderate the potential bill impacts where possible. We're also taking additional proactive steps and working closely with regulators so that customers understand the current price environment and take actions to address it. We're intensifying our communications to be sure customers understand the bigger picture o macro factors affecting natural gas bills. And we're urging customers to take advantage of our nationally recognized energy efficiency programs and leverage payment options that we have available. On the electric side, it's a bit different. Natural gas power plants are on the margin in New England year-round, really except for the coldest days of the year. Rising natural gas prices are significantly affecting power prices. Between 60% and 65% of our electric load is brought by customers directly from third-party suppliers. For the 35% to 40% of our load that continues to buy through our franchises, Connecticut Light and Power, NSTAR Electric, and Public Service of New Hampshire, this is mostly residential load and customers will see higher prices. But they are partially protected by the fact that we contract for power in multiple tranches throughout the year. So lower cost tranches from our purchases earlier in 2022 will offset some of the higher-priced tranches that we purchased more recently. Due to winter time natural gas constraints in New England, our customers normally see a penny and a half to $0.02 per kilowatt hour increase in their retail electric prices in January, an increase that usually reverses as we move into the summer. This January, customers in Massachusetts and Connecticut are likely to experience an additional $0.02 to $0.03 increase due to higher gas prices driving power production. This would be an additional $20, $25 per month for a typical residential customer compared with last winter. Our New Hampshire customers, the rates remain in effect till February, so there's really no impact at this stage for our New Hampshire customers. While the vast majority of our residential customers do not use electricity for space heating, we recognize that any increase in energy bills add stress to the household budget. And we've redoubled our efforts again to urge customers to take advantage of the more than $500 million that we have available on energy efficiency initiative that we provide customers throughout our states each year. I should note that similar to natural gas prices, wholesale electric prices were extremely low in 2020. In fact, they were at a 10-year low. So the percentage increase is that we're reporting here comes off some very low base numbers from last year. As a reminder, increases and or decreases in the energy component of our electric bills are pass - throughs, dollar for dollar pass - throughs. We're nothing on providing this procurement service for customers. So thank you very much for joining us this morning. I will turn the call back over to Jeff for Q&A.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you, Phil. And I'm going to return the call to Cheryl just to remind you how to enter your questions.
Operator:
Thank you. We will now begin the Q&A session. If you would like to ask a question, [Operator Instructions].
Jeffrey Kotkin :
Thank you Cheryl. Our first question this morning is from Jeremy Tonet from JPMorgan. Good morning, Jeremy.
Jeremy Tonet:
Good morning. Thanks for the update there, well it covered a lot of ground. Maybe just starting off with Connecticut a little bit more here. Thanks for all the color, but just wondering if you could provide a little bit more color on how you think about -- how you're planning to manage the rate freeze in Connecticut and how we should be thinking about go-forward an earned ROE and when you think you might end up filing the next case there?
Philip Lembo:
Well Jeremy, thank you for the question. As I mentioned, Connecticut Light and Power and Star Electric public service in New Hampshire, the Eversource family has a strong track record from managing operations in an effective manner, and we'll continue to do that throughout all of our franchises Connecticut included. So as I mentioned, the last reported quarterly ROE in Connecticut was just under 8.7, I think was 8.661% or 8.66%. So even though we're allowed 9.25% ROE, we've been sort of operating underneath that measure since the settlement in 2018. So I would expect that we'll continue to operate that Franchise effectively, I can't really predict at this moment what an ROE might look like there, but I can assure you that we're going to do everything possible to first provide customers with outstanding service that they deserve, and we fully expect to deliver and do that in an efficient and effective way. In terms of when we file our next [Indiscernible] case, the ink is just dry on the settlement and we can't go in. There's nothing that we can implement before 2024. And as I said, with the four-year sort of legislative requirement. We wouldn't mandate it to be in there until 2025. We haven't really thought about that. At this point, we're thinking about how we operate our franchises in an effective manner for customers.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. Thanks for that. And maybe pivoting over towards offshore here. Now that we have scheduled across all three projects, when do you think it might be inappropriate to give increased disclosures here on the project economics. And specifically, how do you think about, I guess the ROFO guidance here for long-term EPS growth, given the Offshore Wind -- it's going to be hitting our earnings -- grow our fund rates going forward?
Philip Lembo:
That's a great question, and one that we've been asked and we've been thinking about. What our expectation is? We generally would update our long-range plans in February with our year-end results and then we'll talk about our forecast, so we plan to do that again this year. We'll roll forward our forecast like we've done in the past, drop a year, add a year out to 2026. And as you point out, given the schedule of the projects, we're going to see significant contribution from bigger projects in that time frame. So the expectation is that as we roll out that next forecast in February, there would be more clarity, more transparency, more information on that segment. So that they'll be able to either model it in a way that you want -- in a way that makes sense. I'd say we are getting close to that and the expectation is in our February update. We'll roll the wind in a more, I guess, discrete -- in a more definitive way.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it, that's helpful just real ask quick one, if I could. It looks like Eversource didn't participate in the most recent Massachusetts RFP process. And would you be able to talk about, I guess next opportunities do you see to add incremental projects and just any high-level thoughts on the broader industry returns at this point?
Joseph Nolan :
Yes. Thanks, Jeremy, it's Joe, I'll take that. Massachusetts is unique in that they are looking for the lowest price, they're not looking for economic development opportunities like some of the other states. That is now changing. The Governor is very, very interested in economic development and opportunities in this business. When you look at States like New York that are kind of dedicated to -- I was in upstate New York for a pretty big announcement around foundations, which -- it's nice to bring some of the supply chain here to America. And that was a big, big step I think for Offshore Wind opportunities, we're seeing for offshore in RFPs. And in 2022, looking at New York potential in Connecticut, as well as in Rhode Island and Massachusetts. I think there's opportunities everywhere, I think the first one you will see will be NIOC. They're very aggressive with their targets and that's a place that we know we'll put out another big RFP.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. That's very helpful. I'll leave it there. Thanks. Thank you.
Jeffrey Kotkin :
Thanks, Jeremy. Next question is from Steve Fleishman from Wolfe. Good morning, Steve.
Steve Fleishman:
Hey. Good morning. Just in terms of supply chain issues and the like, could you just talk to how you're feeling about the current schedules for your three main projects and managing that right now?
Philip Lembo:
Yes, Steve. This is Phil. Good morning. We talked about this is certainly about a topic that people have been interested in, as well as the project and the Company. We feel we're in a very good position in terms of our contracting for both substations or turbines or foundations, what we have in place for strategy for vessels, etc. So our supply chain exposure, I'd say there is some supply chain exposure, but we've done a very good job in solidifying most of that to not make it an issue for us. As I've talked about before, there are puts and takes for all these projects, so some costs maybe move in one direction and other things are moving in a different direction. Taking all that, if there are price changes or if there are schedule impacts, all of that allows us to be confident in the schedules that we've put out to date. And in our estimate and our expectations that these projects will earn in the mid-teens in terms of ROE. There are a number of factors that come at you every day, on these projects and we still feel good about the schedules and the return estimates.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. Because I know the Empire Wind project, which I think was awarded at the same time. As Sunrise is now saying late 26, but obviously, different people, different situation. And then I think they've had some issues with the New York ISO interconnect agreement, so it sounds like you're not seeing that kind of delay.
Joseph Nolan :
No, Steve, this is Joe. We're not -- I mean, they did announce that delay. We do not expect any similar delays on our projects. We have good visibility on that. We feel very confident.
Steve Fleishman:
Great. And then maybe just high level. The Biden info planned a reconciliation one. Could you talk to if there's anything broadly in there that would impact the way you're looking at your plan in terms of just new credits, cash flows, anything that you are most focused on?
Joseph Nolan :
Yeah, Obviously, we would like to take advantage of tax credits to help our customers in any way we can as well as our -- improve our projects. But that's really what our focus would be on that -- on the Biden plan.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. Great. Thank you.
Jeffrey Kotkin :
Alright. Thanks, Steve. Appreciate at the next question is from Julien for Bank of America. Good morning, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith :
Hey, good morning to you, thanks for the time. Appreciate the [Indiscernible]. Let me start with a higher level of question for you, guys. Obviously, looking at the outcome of the election in Maine here, how are you thinking about the Massachusetts renewable procurement at large? And I know it's very fresh here, but any prospects for revisiting perhaps some of the legacy projects that we've all talked about for a long time and/or, frankly, revisiting alternatives to long-distance transmission, given the pushback in New Hampshire and Maine historically here?
Joseph Nolan:
Good morning, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith :
So the same might apply to the gas and Access Northeast while we're at it as well.
Joseph Nolan :
Yes. Good morning, Julien. Thanks for the question. If the question is, are we going to dust off Northern pass the answer is no. We will not dust that off. Is there an opportunity for projects? I think there's definitely opportunity in Massachusetts around wind. I think the Governor 's appetite for additional renewable projects, his desire to change the legislation which requires it to be lower than the previous RFP, is definitely on the table. We've had discussions not only with the Governor, but with key legislative leaders around this. And I think that if they see challenges up the year, I would not be surprised if we see some bids out here, RFP out here in the near-term. In terms of what our future holds for other types of opportunities in this space, I think it's premature. I mean, I don't think they're finished counting the boats in Maine, but we'll certainly take a good hard look at that and see what opportunities might be available.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith :
Got it. Fair enough. It sounds like Access Northeast not necessarily in the same vein on table, but if I can pivot a little bit more locally, right? Talking about Massachusetts situated opportunities, I mean, how are you thinking about enabling distributed resources themselves. There's been some interesting filings in various dockets here that seemed to suggest some pretty meaningful opportunities for you all vis-a-vis just simply interconnection. Whether that's on the distribution or transmission side. And I'm also cognizant that you update your outlook with fourth-quarter here. But any initial thoughts there around distributed assets and enabling them?
Joseph Nolan :
I'll just tell you that our interests on this issue around the smart grid and allowing folks to interconnect and AMI, all of those are shared agendas with our key regulators and policymakers in all -- in Connecticut and Massachusetts particularly. And I think we talked about Connecticut, what happened down there on our settlement, I think this really starts the opportunity for us to really begin to look at AMI and the smart grid and opportunities for unlocking access or greater access to renewables and distributed generation for folks that are eager to interconnect. So I think it's -- I think you'll see a lot of activity in 2022. I'll let Phil talk a little bit around the financial piece of it.
Philip Lembo:
Julien, as you suggest, we do update in February, as we've discussed. And I think the area that we're looking at, we refreshed all of our plans, all of our investment activity so in the area of transmission, certain categories, I'd say broadly that we would expect to take another look at and identify opportunities that may exist, just are maybe in three different categories. One being just these end-of-life asset replacement projects. What do we have out there? What do we have in expectation-wise? Certainly electrification is a category. The States have targets we have to meet. We have to enable those targets to be met so there could be additional transmission in that category. And the third category, and one that you highlight is connecting distributed energy resources to the upgrades that are required to connect either currently contracted Offshore Wind or future Offshore Wind into the service territory. There's a large desire for Offshore Wind across New England, New York, and making sure that we have the connectability or interconnections and the transmission to not be a bottleneck for that. That is likely to be some increased investment needed on the system. I'd say those are the types of things that I think you'll see when we rollout our update in February in those categories.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith :
Got it. All right. We shall wait for what those numbers amount to. But I wish you the best of luck guys. [Indiscernible].
Philip Lembo:
Thanks Julien.
Joseph Nolan :
Thank you.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Thank you.
Jeffrey Kotkin :
Next question is from David Arcaro from Morgan Stanley. Good morning David.
David Arcaro :
Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I was wondering if you could just give an update on the equity needs. Apologies if I missed it in the prepared remarks, but just latest thinking on the amount and timing of equity here.
Philip Lembo:
Yes, David, this is Phil. There's been no change in what our equity needs are going forward at this stage. So that would mean that from what we had announced previously a few years ago, this $700 million of equity that we would plan to issue on some sort of ATM or at the market type of program. that goes throughout our current forecast. So our current forecast goes through 2025, so there's no specific timing of that at this point. And we continue to issue original issue shares from our dividend reinvestment equity comp type of things, and that's a $100 million a year. So there's been no change and that's where we are, no increase or change in those needs.
David Arcaro :
Okay. Got it. Understood. And then had a question on the turbine installation vessel that you're contracting with Dominion. Just wondering if you could talk a little bit about the amount of time there is between using that vessel for your projects. Sunrise and Revolution, and then moving to Dominion in 2026. Just if there's any risk that you would lose access to the vessel in the case of any project delays or how you're thinking about that.
Joseph Nolan:
So, thank you. I'll take that. That vessel, its first port-of-call is going to be on New London. We have an opportunity to use that vessel that would -- for both Sunrise as well as Revolution Wind. It will not be ready for Southwark. There's enough of a cushion in there to allow for us to complete those projects. In addition, there's a day for day delay opportunity. If the vessel is delayed, coming into New London, we have the first customer, that would be pushed out on the other end. We do not anticipate any issues around the use of that state-of-the-art vessel. I mean as the extraordinary Vessel, it carries six wind turbine assemblies. New London is only 70 miles from our lease area. We think it's the most efficient way to install our wind turbines. And we're really excited about that. I was -- had an opportunity to spend a little time with the Dominion folks and the vessel is on track and some of our folks will head down and check on the progress, but that is going to be -- it's going to be quite a piece of equipment.
David Arcaro :
Okay, great. Thanks so much.
Jeffrey Kotkin :
Alright, thanks, David, Our next question is from Sophie Karp from KeyBanc. Morning Sophie.
Sophie Karp :
Good morning. And thank you for taking my questions. Going back to Connecticut on just kind of curious. I appreciate the overall capex forecast is unchanged, but kind of shift in the timing of some projects, maybe between phase one of the levers you can pull here to manager, or in that arena next few years there or what are some of the levers you can pull to offset inflationary process and just overall normal course of investments there?
Philip Lembo:
So, Sophie, I think as I've said in the past and we've commented on. Our investments and our operations are geared to meeting our customer expectations. So investments that we make in our system are driven by what our customer needs are. How do we reinforce the system? How do we provide? -- We might be able to make a capital investment that offset some O&M costs so that's also good for customers. Our focus on our investment needs, whether they'd be transmission, distribution, gas, electric, water, are on first and foremost, what does it do for customers. We wouldn't be looking at moving around investments into other areas for other reasons other than how would meet the customer needs. There's levers. As I said, we've -- I'd put our track record up against anybody's in the industry, in terms of managing our operations in an efficient and effective manner. How we integrate EGMA into our family is going to provide some uplift, we have opportunities there. and how we roll out programs in an effective manner. So I'd say that we're focused on managing our operations to meet the customer needs, and that'll be the lever that we have to get to where we want to get to in terms of our earnings profile.
Sophie Karp :
Got it. And just what are you seeing right now, I guess, aside from the energy cores? Just overall, like materials, labor, type of inflation and inflationary pressures within your regulated franchises. Is that something that is becoming material and requires, I guess, certain efforts to offset or are you seeing that within the -- maybe a pretty decent trajectory? Or how should we think about that right now?
Philip Lembo:
I'd say it's had an impact, but I wouldn't say it's been significant. We've -- a year ago the supply chain team, who's in sort of the financial organization, works very closely with our engineers and our operating folks. And at the start of this pandemic, I think a lot of companies like to have a just-in-time delivery model. We made a conscious decision over a year ago to not do that, to have -- to actually build up our inventories, poles, transformers, wire, cable, all the types of things. And if it's not in our facility, we have provisions with our suppliers to keep it on their property. And we're using a lot of it. I mean, we have had -- Joe talked about storm. I read at the beginning, we go through a lot of polls and wire, etc. you know when there's a storm and that's not been a factor for us. We've had the supplies available to us. Now, having said that, we certainly have our eyes on it, there are types of equipment that are getting more difficult and it may not be the whole piece of equipment, it could just be the plastic component of something is you can't get. And so we've -- also expanded the types of suppliers we have, and where the supplier is located and that type of things. So if It has had an impact, I'd be fooling myself or anybody to say, we haven't had some delays in some products, but they haven't been a material of significant impact to us.
Sophie Karp :
Got it. Thank you and if I may squeeze one more on the gas supply situation. I'm just curious if you could quantify for us between the storage -- physical storage and capacity contracts, what percentage of your normal demand I guess is hedged at this point in time? And given the situation, have you given any thought to maybe even bring into your regulators proposals to build more storage facilities on the [Indiscernible]? Thank you.
Philip Lembo:
I'd say about 1/3 of it. If you look at what we have in storage and what's fixed, I'd say it's about a third of that supply. And as I mentioned, the remaining part of the supply, we have the capability, we have the pipeline contracts to obtain it, and we have the capability of obtaining it from a lower-priced region than the city gate pricing. In terms of incremental storage, we do have programs that we do have in place to refurbish some of our LNG facilities or make sure that they are operating at the maximum capacity, but we haven't looked to expand those facilities. We naturally expanded them just by the acquisition or the purchase of Columbia Gas of Massachusetts, almost doubling the storage capacity that we have as an entity. And as Joe mentioned, size matters in this case too. It matters in terms of storm response. But it matters in this case too because we can operate the synergies by moving those 2 companies together, between NSTAR Gas in Massachusetts and Eversource Gas of Massachusetts. We can use contracts better than each Company could have used them individually and we can use our storage better than either Company could, so there's some natural benefits for us. So that was a point that we made in terms of getting the deal approved at the DPU. I guess that is a way of saying we've increased the ability to have storage, but we're not looking to build anything extra at this point.
Sophie Karp :
Thank you. [Indiscernible]
Jeffrey Kotkin :
Thank you. Thank you, Sophie. Next question is from Travis Miller from Morningstar. Good morning, Travis.
Travis Miller:
Good morning, everyone, and thank you. On the offshore transmission, it sounds like you have a lot of the pieces in place for the Southwark project if I heard you correctly. What's the status of the transmission side of the other projects that you have going?
Philip Lembo:
Yeah, can you -- I'm not sure we understand the question, Travis, you say the status of the transmission side?
Travis Miller:
Transmission, the connections -- that are connections between offshore projects and land, essentially.
Joseph Nolan :
Thanks, Travis. I will take that. All of those projects, all the permitting and the siting, and applications are all in motion. We haven't had any bumps in the road, and we are -- they are all on track. Everything has a line of sight on it, and it's in motion.
Travis Miller:
Okay, great. And then in Connecticut, you talked about the trackers there. About what percent of the capex do you have over the next couple of years is subject to those trackers that you talked about?
Philip Lembo:
It's about half. It's about half of our spend.
Travis Miller:
Okay. Great. That's all I had. Thanks so much.
Philip Lembo:
Thank you.
Jeffrey Kotkin :
Thanks, Travis. And that was the last question we have this morning, so we want to thank you all for joining us today. We look forward to seeing many of you at the EEI Conference next week. And if you have any follow-up questions, please either call or email. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now.
Operator:
Good morning and welcome to the Eversource Energy Second Quarter 2021 Results Conference. My name is Brandon and I’ll be your operator for today. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] Please note this conference is being recorded. I will now turn it over to Jeffrey Kotkin. You may begin, sir.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you, Brandon. Good morning and thank you for joining us. I’m Jeff Kotkin, Eversource Energy’s Vice President for Investor Relations. During this call, we’ll be referencing slides that we posted last night on our website, and as you can see on Slide 1, some of the statements made during this investor call may be forward-looking as defined within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on management’s current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainty, which may cause the actual results to differ materially from forecasts and projections. These factors are set forth in the news release issued yesterday. Additional information about the various factors that may cause actual results to differ can be found in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2020 and on our Form 10-Q for the three months ended March 31, 2021. Additionally, our explanation of how and why we use certain non-GAAP measures and how those measures reconcile to GAAP results is contained within our news release and the slides we posted yesterday and in our most recent 10-K and 10-Q. Speaking today will be Joe Nolan, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Phil Lembo, our Executive Vice President and CFO. Also joining us today are John Moreira, our Treasurer and Senior VP for Finance and Regulatory; and Jay Booth, our VP and Controller. Now, I will turn to Slide 2 and turn over the call to Joe.
Joe Nolan:
Thank you, Jeff. We hope that all on the phone are safe and well and we look forward to seeing you in person later this year. I will cover a few topics this morning and then turn over the call to Phil to discuss our mid-year financial results in some new and important grid modernization and AMI developments in Massachusetts. I know the most recent months have resulted in weather challenges across the country. In the West, our peers have needed to deal with heat and wildfires. In New England, with that increased level of thunderstorm activity topped off by a glancing blow from Tropical Storm Elsa. [Employees] have worked around the clock many days restoring power to our customers from tree caused damage to our overhead system. While our implementation of new technology in vegetation management has limited the scope of many of the resulting power outages, our dedicated crews continue to be on the frontline completing a large amount of emergency restoration work in hot and humid conditions over the past month and a half in doing so in a safe and effective manner. Their work has been excellent, and we continue to receive notes of appreciation from both our customers and municipal leaders. I was out all day in Connecticut, the day Elsa passed through, and I cannot say enough about our team and preparing for and responding to storm damage in coastal regions of Connecticut and Massachusetts. We greatly appreciate the recognition of those efforts that we received from Connecticut PURA Commissioners at the July 14 meeting. As I mentioned during our first quarter earnings call, improving our relationship with Connecticut policymakers and customers is my top priority as CEO. Earlier this week, a number of Connecticut legislators joined several state community education and labor leaders at our Berlin Connecticut campus to celebrate the first class of students who are completing our new Lineworker certification program in partnership with the Hartford based Capital Community College. We continue to see steady monthly improvements in our customer favorability ratings and we appreciate the positive feedback we are receiving from municipal leaders. But we have to prove ourselves during the next major storm. I strongly believe that the changes we are implementing to our communication systems and processes will put us in a much better place the next time a multi-day storm cleanup effort occurs. Next I want to provide an update on the offshore wind partnership with Orsted. Over the past few months, we have continued to make significant progress on the three projects that I noted on Slide 3. Perhaps the most significant development was the agreement we reached with Dominion Energy to charter the U.S. built Jones Act-compliant wind turbine installation vessel, currently under construction in Brownsville, Texas. Once construction of the vessel was complete in late 2023, it will seal to New London, Connecticut where it will be used to install wind turbines for Revolution Wind and Sunrise Wind. The vessel will be one of the largest, most advanced of its kind in the world and will provide a more efficient approach to construction and use the feeder barges. Work has recently begun at New London at the state-owned ocean facing Deepwater peer to convert into a major state area for offshore wind. As you know, the primary variable in our construction timetable is citing approval. We continue to be on a good path to secure Federal Bureau of Ocean Management or BOEM approval of 132 megawatts Southwark Project in January of 2022, which will enable construction to begin early next year, and be completed before the end of 2023. During hearings this spring that resulted in Rhode Island Coastal Resource Management Council approval of the project, we indicated that we would install well, 11 megawatt turbines in connection with this project. We are making progress on the two larger projects as well. State permitting applications in Rhode Island for revolution wind and in New York for Sunrise Wind were filed last December. In April, the Rhode Island energy facility signing board issued a preliminary decision in order and revolution when scheduled with advisory opinions for local and state agencies to be submitted by August 26, 2021. Evidentiary hearings are due to begin by mid-October. The Sunrise Wind application was deemed complete by New York officials on July 1, initiating the formal review process for the project. As we noted in May, BOEM is targeting the completion of the review of Revolution Wind for the third quarter of 2023. Based on that review schedule, we now expect to be able to achieve commercial operation in 2025. We have not yet received the schedule for BOEM’s review of the Sunrise project, but we are in a good position with our New London, staging area, our turbine installation ship and our suppliers. So, depending on the BOEM review schedule, that we expect to receive within the next few months, we expect Sunrise will reach commercial operation in 2025 as well. These dates are consistent with the vision of the Biden administration, which continues to accelerate the review of offshore wind projects proposed for the Atlantic Coast. It is also consistent with the administration's target of having 30,000 megawatts of offshore wind operating in the United States by 2030. Offshore Wind is one of several initiatives underway to help our state's achieve the greenhouse gas reduction targets. On July 14, PURA took a major step forward in furthering the state's clean energy goals when it approved a comprehensive program to support the state's push for having at least 125,000 zero emission vehicles on the road by the end of 2025. The order is described on Slide 4. We appreciate a number of the changes that PURA made to the draft decision to enhance the program's expected success. We will submit an implementation plan based on the PURA order by October 15. Also on that slide, is a description of a proposal that Massachusetts utilities submitted on July 14, to further develop the infrastructure that is needed to support rapid conversion of the state's vehicles to zero emissions. As you can see on the slide, by the end of this year, we will have invested $55 million in our Massachusetts electric vehicle program, helping to connect about 4,000 charge ports. However, since transportation is responsible for more than 40% of the state's greenhouse gas emissions, significantly more support is needed to help the state meet its targets of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2030, and 75% by 2014. Massachusetts had only 36,000 electric vehicles registered as of January 1, 2021. In 2020, only 3% of the light duty vehicles sold in the state were EV's. While that percentage is above average for the country as a whole, it needs to be enhanced significantly going forward. Since at the current pace, we will have fewer than 500,000 EV's in Massachusetts as of 2030. We need more than 1 million EV's by then for the state to reach its targets. We have proposed spending more than $190 million on EV support from 2022 to 2025, including 68 million of capital investments. These investments are described on the slide and included expanded charger infrastructure investment, some rate incentives in new opportunities to add EV infrastructure in environmental justice communities. Our support for our state's greenhouse gas reduction efforts is discussed at length in our 2020 sustainability report, which was posted on our website earlier this month. A link to the new report is included on Slide 5. The revamped report has incorporated a number of enhancements to provide you with more visibility into our environmental, social, and governance efforts. We're also pleased to share updates on our 2030 carbon neutrality goal, including our first third-party verification of our 2020 greenhouse gas footprint. We have a number of teams within Eversource cast with making our 2030 goal a reality. They include a team focusing on reducing admissions in five principal areas, another team working on developing a strategy to offset emissions that cannot be eliminated by 2030, and another team that is encouraging all 9,300 Eversource employees to contribute to their best ideas on how we can achieve our 2030 goal. They've already developed some truly innovative proposals that we are evaluating. They're enthusiasm is just more evidence on why I am so confident about Eversource’s future. Now, I will turn the call over to Phil Lembo.
Phil Lembo:
Thank you, Joe. This morning I'm going to cover three areas
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you, Phil. And I'm going to turn the call back to Brandon just to remind you how to enter your questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions]
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you, Brandon. Our first question this morning is from Shahriar Pourreza from Guggenheim. Good morning, Shahriar.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Good morning, Jeff. Good morning, team.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Good morning.
Joe Nolan:
Good morning, Shah.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Just starting with the PURA and sort of the 90 basis points RE reduction, it sounds like, you know one of the more recent notices open the door for parties to petition for a defined penalty period versus something more perpetual. You know, how should we, sort of think about, kind of this opening, if you will, to a you know, a fixed length reduction versus indefinite. And then just remind us again, what we should be watching for here going forward?
Phil Lembo:
Sure, Shah. This is Phil. As I mentioned, the docket is open and recently PURA did notify the parties that they could submit testimony on the applicability of the term of the penalty. So, to me that indicates there is a consideration of what a term would be as you know, the initial language was using the word indefinite. So, I think that's positive development in terms of setting a specific, you know, a term for the penalty. So, in the docket, the information that came out last week, sort of indicates the file information there. So, you know, what we should be looking for the areas there is a, you know, there is a process that will continue on that docket. There's an expectation that an order would be issued in October with any changes out of there, effective November 1 is the current timeline.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Got it. Thank you for that. And then, just lastly, and maybe just shifting to offshore wind and starting with the logistics side, you know, redevelopment of the Connecticut State peer and New London has had some cost increases, right, from 93 million to roughly 235 million, obviously paid by the state. But it sounds like everything else is, kind of proceeding, is there kind of any supply chain issues you're kind of keeping an eye on or logistics that remain, kind of unknowns?
Joe Nolan:
Yeah, thanks, Shah. This is Joe. I'll take that. So, water work is underway at the New London Port. We were just out there for some inspections. We do have all our onshore permits, it’s going very, very well. Last week the state finalized the funding. Any of those increases, the state is absorbing. So, we feel very, very good about that. And now with regard to supply chain, there are no issues that are impacting any of our three projects. All of the projects have everything locked down. So, we feel good about that.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Okay, perfect. That's all I had. Pretty clear cut quarter. Thanks, guys.
Joe Nolan:
Thank you.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thanks Shah. Next question is from Jeremy Tonet from JP Morgan. Good morning, Jeremy.
Unidentified Analyst:
Hi, good morning, guys. It's actually [Ryan] on the Jeremy.
Joe Nolan:
Hey, Ryan.
Unidentified Analyst:
Just wanted to start on the offshore and maybe on some of the deciding process you guys have kind of talked about during the script and thinking about the progress you guys have been making with some of the fishermen, I know, this is kind of an issue with South Fork in Rhode Island specifically, we kind of want to, kind of, just get a latest on the, kind of the progress you're making in terms of, you know, other stakeholders, kind of agreements and kind of the process you are making with those relationships?
Joe Nolan:
So, thank you for the question, Ryan. We've had a lot of dialogue down there. And I think we've got some, you know, a good path forward. And we've got a, obviously a positive decision we received in July from the [CRMC] down there and positive decisions in New York, as well as in Massachusetts. So, we think a lot of the concerns, or at least the path is pretty clear, and we feel good about it.
Unidentified Analyst:
And then maybe just one on Connecticut, we saw UI kind of get their settlement over the finish line there, just kind of wandering prospects, you know, you're kind of seeing in the say, with some stakeholders in terms of maybe potentially settling some of these issues and what, kind of timeline we might be thinking about in terms of somebody coming out on that front?
Joe Nolan:
Sure. So, generally speaking, you know, a broad multi-party settlement is something that's obviously attractive to us. We have a long history of settlements, whether it's the NSTAR merger in 2012 or the CL&P rate case, or the Yankee rate case. So, you know, we feel good about that. I have been spending most of my time in Connecticut. We've been out with multiple parties. And, you know, I think that the temperatures certainly has reduced and folks are in a good place. I think, you know, we need to prove ourselves down there. We know that. I think, tropical storm, the recent one was Elsa, which passed through, was really a good exercise for us to show that, you know, a lot of things have changed for our business. So, by and large a settlement is something that's attractive to us. We were pleased to see that [indiscernible] settlement was, was approved. So, we see some possibilities there.
Unidentified Analyst:
Got it. Makes sense. I'll stop there. Thanks for answering my question.
Joe Nolan:
Thank you, Ryan.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you, Ryan. Next question is from Durgesh Chopra from Evercore. Good morning, Durgesh.
Durgesh Chopra:
Hey, good morning, Jeff. Thank you. Just going back to the Connecticut docket, the temporary rate reduction docket, [indiscernible] when you're on the [indiscernible], I’m just wondering where that stands and did you guys expect this final order not for the rate reduction effective [number there], you know, that's addressed as well, or that's finalized as well?
Joe Nolan:
Durgesh, you broke up a little bit on the questions. Are you talking about the testimony from the intervener that went in?
Durgesh Chopra:
That's correct. The equity ledger. That's exactly right.
Phil Lembo:
Yes, this is Phil. During the course of that proceeding, there was testimony and certainly, you know, we provided our own input to that testimony and – as well as question the witness. So, you know, by the nature of it being part of the questioning, I would expect that somehow it could be considered in that proceeding going forward. So, there's no specific area that is to be decided there. I think it was just a testimony that was filed by the EOE. It’s a EOE witness, that's a section of the Connecticut PURA. So…
Durgesh Chopra:
Got it. Thank you. That's helpful. And then maybe just quick clarification Phil, the AMI filing in Massachusetts, what portion of that 500 million to 600 million that you mentioned would be incremental to the current CapEx plans?
Phil Lembo:
We have currently no CapEx in our five-year forecast for AMI in Connecticut or in Massachusetts. So, any spending in either state would be incremental.
Durgesh Chopra:
Got it? And do you – do we see a final decision in mid-2022 or is that just sort of, like what are – the response means, like, is this a formal sort of yes or no, or just feedback from the Massachusetts GPU?
Phil Lembo:
No, we expect a decision in 2022. You know, mid-year is as good an estimate as any at this stage. So, this has been a, you know, long standing sort of desire, I think of the Commission, you know, we certainly have a need to make a decision on our metering infrastructure. So, the timing is good. So, we fully expect a decision in mid-year 2022.
Durgesh Chopra:
Okay, perfect. Thanks, guys. Much appreciate the time.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thanks, Durgesh. Next question is from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Bank of America. Good morning, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Good morning, team. Thanks for the opportunity to connect. Maybe to pick up a little bit off the last question and flip it a little bit, when you think about the various scenarios, you've a history of executing well, you talked about upper half and five to seven, there's a variety of different pieces that are moving your puts and takes. How do you think about your confidence level under various scenarios in the upper half here? And I'll let you answer that accordingly because there's a lot of, probably too many scenarios to talk about and point-out here. I'd be curious as you think about the, sort of the decision tree here or pathway potential?
Phil Lembo:
Thanks, Julien. As we see our five-year, our long-term forecast, I'm very confident in our ability to achieve our growth expectations. As you mentioned, there are always puts and takes. That's what we do as a as a management team. And that's what any company would do as manage that process and address issues that don't go your way and look for other opportunities. So, there are various puts and takes that can occur over the course of any forecast period, but I am confident in our ability to achieve our targets.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. Excellent. I'll leave that subject there. Maybe coming back to this offshore wind subject, as opposed to the highest level observation or question back to you after Shah’s question would be, given the more coincident construction of these projects here, any considerations around logistics that we should be focused on here, I suppose, just given that they're now increasingly lining up against each other [in parallel]?
Joe Nolan:
Yeah. Thank you. Good morning, Julien, Joe Nolan. We feel we feel great about the timing, our projects are really scheduled in a perfect formation. So, we do think there's a lot of opportunity there on mobilization, demobilization to allow these projects to be able to be constructed in a very orderly fashion. And that's what really excites us. So, yeah, definitely opportunity is there. The timing is perfect for actually all three of them.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Right, excellent. And then lastly, just coming back to this question on settlement, and I know – I appreciate your comments earlier. Curious to the extent to which you can resolve perhaps in a comprehensive manner, all variety, including potential rate case and filing next year, in the context of some, sort of settlement here. Just want to push on that subject just a tad more, if you don't mind?
Joe Nolan:
Yeah, you know, Julien, we've, I think you've had an opportunity to see our success in the past. We can do settlements that are quite comprehensive. We feel confident that if, you know, if we get to the table, we've got, obviously at the parties that we have great relationships with, and a comprehensive settlement is definitely possible here, and it's something that obviously will be attractive to acknowledge a loss I think to a number of the parties. It is obviously very, very busy time down at Connecticut right now. And so, you know, I'm optimistic.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
All right, excellent. Well, thank you very much and best of luck on those efforts.
Joe Nolan:
Thank you.
Phil Lembo:
Thank you, Julien.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thanks, Julien. Next question is from Paul Patterson from Glenrock. Good morning, Paul.
Paul Patterson:
Hey, good morning, guys. How you doing?
Phil Lembo:
Good. Paul, how are you?
Paul Patterson:
Alright. So, just to, sort of pick up on Julien's question there on the – and Joe you said, you were optimistic about Connecticut, and the potential for settlement. Could you give us a feeling for what the key sticking points are? Because, as you know, having been did this a month ago, and I'm just wondering, how should we think about what the – what parties are the – might be the key issue or what specific issues are the ones that probably are the ones for us to focus on being resolved?
Joe Nolan:
Sure. I mean, it's the same parties that we've dealt with. You’ve got the attorney general's office. You got the OCC, you have deep, I mean, these are the parties, obviously, that we've dealt with in the past. And, you know, that would be the same folks that we would see if we did enter into some settlements.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. And is there any key points or key issues that are the sticking points? That are the key things that people are focused on that's causing more of an issue than others?
Joe Nolan:
No, I wouldn't say, there's any sticky points. There’s no specific issues.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. And in terms of timing, you guys give a very detailed, sort of rate case, you know regulatory proceeding outlook and stuff, but how should we think about, which occurred to before the hearing, or, how should we think about?
Joe Nolan:
Well, you know, settlements can occur at any point, you know, as you know, on the process. So, and I, it's hard for me to say, we need to let certain things run their, kind of regulatory course.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. And then on the affiliate, you called out the ratings downgrade potential, if you guys are downgraded, other than obviously, you know, I mean, obviously impacts the cost of borrowing, but other than that, is there anything else we should be thinking about? Is there any other, sort of potential trigger on covenants or anything we should be thinking about or anything else?
Phil Lembo:
No, Paul, there are no other triggers that come into play here. And just for clarification, I think we all know that being on negative outlook doesn't necessarily mean that you're going to be downgraded. I think the agencies like to see certain progress in particular areas. So, you know, in the area that they, they sort of highlighted in terms of lowering the outlook was, sort of a Connecticut regulatory area. So, there are a lot of dockets going on there. And if those move in a direction that the rating agencies view as credit positive than that, that doesn't mean you're going to get the downgrade rates, they could put you back onto a stable outlook. So, but nonetheless, if something were to happen, there are no other triggers that would be in effect.
Paul Patterson:
Okay, great. Most of the questions have been answered. Thanks so much, guys. Have a good weekend.
Phil Lembo:
Thanks, Paul. You too.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Next question is from Andrew Weisel from Scotia. Good morning, Andrew.
Andrew Weisel:
Hey, good morning, everyone. Maybe I'll start by following up on that last question about the ratings agencies. I don't expect specific numbers, but I know there the agency's concern is the regulatory risks, not exactly the balance sheet. But if they were to downgrade, how would that affect your plans for the mix of debt versus equity in the coming years?
Joe Nolan:
Well, there's a lot of hypotheticals there. I mean, it's, you know, if that happen. You know, I'd have to see what – was there something in a regulatory decision, what the impact of that would be? So, I say, we don't have any plans at this stage to make any really adjustments in our approach to our capital structure or what we're looking to do in terms of our debt financings. As you know, we identified that we had $700 million of additional equity financing that we had identified a couple of years ago that is still out there that we plan to do over some longer-term period on a periodic ATM on something basis. And then we're issuing about $500 million, about $100 million a year is a better way of saying it, out of our dividend reinvestment plan. So, we are continuing to do some dribbling out of equity and then we're doing long-term financings, but don't have any specific changes that I would highlight at this stage, the capital structure.
Andrew Weisel:
Okay, then next question. Joe, you opened your prepared remarks talking about the positive feedback here, preparation toward response to the storms, can you give some specific examples of ways that you've changed your protocols and strategies [indiscernible], and if there are any additional new initiatives that you're planning to roll out to help minimize from dividend outages?
Joe Nolan:
Yeah, sure. Thank you, Andrew. One of the – I think the most impactful, kind of system will rolled out as a community based portal that allows communities to put their priorities in terms of public safety, [block roads], those types of items are in the – we also have crews in each of the communities that's allowed communities to have their priorities addressed. So, those are just some of the – I would say the other piece that really goes back to what we had done prior to Isaias because of the pandemic is, you know, we have folks that are located in each of these cities and towns. That's something we were not able to do with the Isaias. As you know, at that point time, everybody was in lockdown. It was a very complex recovery effort, because we needed double of everything. We had to have single workers in vehicles. We had to have single workers in hotel rooms. And it was a very, very challenging matter. So, you know when we had this last event, the Elsa, things were a little more back to normal. And we had a lot of kind of technology portals that we had deployed, which were very, very well received. I mean, I was out on the system. I had an opportunity to talk to several of the cities and towns and all the feedback I received was very, very positive.
Andrew Weisel:
Okay, great. That's helpful. Best of luck going to the [next level], hopefully you won't be tested anytime soon. But [hopefully], it won't be too bad. Thank you.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you, Andrew. Next question is from Sophie Karp from KeyBanc. Good morning, Sophie.
Sophie Karp:
Hey, good morning, guys. Thank you for taking my question. I wanted to take a stab at Connecticut, again, but maybe from a slightly different angle, you know, not to sound like a doomer, but you know, but the storm has become more frequent and some may even say a new normal, is there a room for a dialogue there that goes beyond just, kind of sorting through the penalties and the past performance and establishing the regulatory framework for dealing with consecutive forums as a new normal [line] and [what they've seen] in the hurricane belt where it's been around for a while? Is there room for [Technical Difficulty] on the commission level where you have securitizations or trackers for this type of stuff? Any real like mechanisms that are predictable, where you don't have to sort through each storm individually as we go forward? That's all I have.
Phil Lembo:
Thanks, Sophie. Some of those items have been discussed. Securitization certainly was a topic that’s come up from time-to-time. You know, in Connecticut, in terms of storm, storm costs, but you know, usually a, in a rate proceeding, you know, where you're looking at all your costs, and what's in your cost of service, etcetera. In our last settled rate proceeding at CL&P, we spent a lot of time on storms, and what the right level of storm activity was to collect in rates and what appropriate deferral mechanisms might be there. So, there's long been a recognition that these costs can move around, and what's the best way of making sure that customer rates, you know, remain as stable as possible, but there's still an opportunity for collecting these costs going forward. So, those kinds of discussions will continue and the dialogue will continue. There's nothing specifically on the, you know, on the table per se, in terms of, you know, storm cost recovery at this stage, but, you know, we've had discussions on various topics. And we’ve spent, you know, so before you get to storm recovery, one of the areas we do is try to not have to recover, right so that means we try to do an effective job on our vegetation management and the capital spending that we do on technologies to restore customers quickly and remotely. So, in the – we spend $200 million a year on vegetation management, just, you know, to cross our system to remove trees and open up rights away, etcetera. So, the best the best outage to have is not to have it. I guess that's the best possibility. So, we do think, and the Commission has been receptive to our requests for additional funding. But there's still a lot of tree work that can be done in Connecticut, as in other states, but that's an area that, you know, we continue, we'd like to continue to have a dialogue on.
Sophie Karp:
Thank you.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Next – thank you, Sophie. Next question is from David Arcaro from Morgan Stanley. David?
David Arcaro:
Hey, good morning. Thanks so much for taking my questions. A quick follow-up just on that last line of thinking, is there a CapEx opportunity to look for more reliability, kind of system hardening investments in Connecticut, you mentioned, vegetation management and tree trimming, which seems more on the OEM side of things, but wondering if there's more capital to deploy to lower the impact of storms going forward in Connecticut?
Joe Nolan:
We do have an approved capital tracking, sort of safety reliability program that we have in Connecticut right now that we operate under. So, as we do in the other in other states, too. So, there is – that would not be new. We do spend money on technologies to, again, enhance our ability to prevent outages or in the event that you do have an outage to recover quickly. So, there is an opportunity, and we currently have a mechanism in place to do that.
David Arcaro:
Okay, got it. Thanks. Shifting to offshore wind, I was just – wanted to clarify, what gave you the comfort this quarter to put specific year’s, specific dates out there for revolution and sunrise, was it the progress that you saw on the schedule that let you, kind of crystallize those years?
Joe Nolan:
Yes, I’d say that's the primary driver. We've said, you know, when we first moved off the date, we said, as soon as we get more clarification, we would go back and work with our partners with Orsted and develop, you know, a schedule. So, in the case of revolution wind, we certainly, we have that in place. For sunrise, it's soon to get in place. So, we're, I guess, cautiously optimistic on that date and we'll have to wait till we see more information out of BOEM to be more certain, but that is it. We've seen movement, and we have much more clarity now on dates than we did, you know, a year ago.
David Arcaro:
Got it. That makes sense. Let me just, kind of last quick one, just wondering if there's any thoughts you might have on the Massachusetts RFP and your competitive positioning there for the next offshore wind project? Are there advantages you might be able to bring to the table as especially as some of the infrastructure comes online for your other projects that you could potentially lean on?
Joe Nolan :
Sure. You know, like all state RFPs, you know, for when we're evaluating right now, look at how it fits into our plan there. We expect other states as well to have it. So, it's under consideration.
David Arcaro:
Great. Thanks so much.
Joe Nolan:
Thank you.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thanks, David. Next question is from Steve Fleishman from Wolfe. Good morning, Steve.
Steve Fleishman:
Hey, good morning. Thanks. Apologize if this was asked and just there's a lot of different issues in Connecticut that you might be, you know, able to, you know, settle on, I guess, if you get to that point of a settlement, just curious, if there is a way to deal with, kind of the need to file a rate case every four years, could that be part of this or is that something that has to happen no matter what?
Joe Nolan:
Yeah, Steve. Good morning, Steve. This is Joe. Absolutely. That could be part of any type of a comprehensive settlement. If that was something that was important to the parties, that's something we would definitely put on the table.
Phil Lembo:
And I'll add to that, that's really more of a legislative mandate, Steve, and it requires – it appears to review the rates. So, if the settlement, if there's information there that would be deemed as a review, you know, that could take care of that requirement, but that four year sort of review is more of a – in the legislative space.
Steve Fleishman:
Got it. No, that's helpful color, Phil. Thank you. That was it.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Great. Thank you, Steve. Looks like we're all set. We don't have any more folks in the queue. So, we want to thank everybody for joining us today. If you've got any follow up, please give us a call or send us an email and have a wonderful weekend.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good morning and welcome to the Eversource Energy first quarter 2021 results conference call. My name is Brandon and I’ll be your operator for today. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session, during which you may dial star, one if you have a question. Please note this conference is being recorded. I will now turn it over to Jeffrey Kotkin. You may begin, sir.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you Brandon. Good morning and thank you for joining us. I’m Jeff Kotkin, Eversource Energy’s Vice President for Investor Relations. During this call, we’ll be referencing slides that we posted this morning on our website, and as you can see on Slide 1, some of the statements made during this investor call may be forward-looking as defined within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on management’s current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainty which may cause the actual results to differ materially from forecasts and projections. These factors are set forth in the news release issued this morning. Additional information about the various factors that may cause actual results to differ can be found in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2020. Additionally, our explanation of how and why we use certain non-GAAP measures and how those measures reconcile to GAAP results is contained within our news release and the slides we posted this morning, and in our most recent 10-K. Speaking today will be Joe Nolan, our new President and Chief Executive Officer, and Phil Lembo, our Executive Vice President and CFO. Also joining us today are John Moreira, our Treasurer and Senior VP for Finance and Regulatory; and Jay Booth, our VP and Controller. Now I will turn to Slide 2 and turn over the call to Joe.
Joe Nolan:
Thank you Jeff. We hope that all on the phone remain healthy and that your families are safe and well. Over the past couple of years, I’ve spoken to many of the investors who are on this call when I’ve joined Jim, Phil and Jeff at various industry conferences, including the last couple of EEI Finance conferences. I’m looking forward to meeting many more of you over the coming years and sharing my optimism and enthusiasm for Eversource’s future and excellent investment theses. I’m grateful to the Eversource Board of Trustees and to Jim for allowing me to lead an incredibly dedicated and high performing organization. I’m also thankful that Jim will remain a full time employee as Eversource as Executive Chairman. In approving these executive level changes, the Eversource Board is signaling its confidence in our long term strategy that focuses on our core regulated business with an exciting investment in offshore wind. We are in a world where customer service, safety and reliability have never been more important. We will never forget that we would not be in the business without our 4.3 million customers. They are our top priority. Customers pay the bills and they deserve a reliable and safe utility service that we must provide. Over the coming decades, the tens of billions of dollars we will invest in our energy and water delivery systems will be critical in helping New England prepare for a clean energy future, and we expect to be a central catalyst for the clean energy transition. This morning, I want to cover a couple of topics associated with Eversource’s energy initiatives and then turn over the call to Phil, but first I need to address our company’s relationship with Connecticut. We have thousands of employees in Connecticut who work hard each day to provide our 1.7 million natural gas, water and electric customers with the most reliable and responsive service possible. During emergency situations, which we have had far too often over the past year due to historic storm levels, they are working up to 16 hours a day for as many days as it takes to ensure that our customers have their service restored promptly and safely, even in a pandemic, so I cannot tell you how painful it was for me to read certain elements of the Tropical Storm Isaias decision that was released on April 28. It did not reflect the high work of our dedicated employees and the company I’ve been chosen to lead. Our customers, PURA, and our company all want the same thing - great service each and every day of the year, and when there is a storm event, power restoration as safely and quickly as possible. The women and men of Eversource work hard each and every day to meet these expectations. The PURA audit on storm response clearly identified areas for improvement. We know we have work to do not only our response plan but also on our relationship with PURA. This was apparent from the April 28 decision and the subsequent notice of violation. I can assure you that we hear this loud and clear and are already doing all we can to improve on both counts. Turning to our clean energy initiatives, you are probably aware of the climate legislation that Massachusetts Governor Baker signed into law earlier this spring. Among many elements, the law will allow each of the state’s utilities to build up to 280 megawatts of solar generation. NSTAR Electric will be able to increase its level of solar generation in rate base from 70 megawatts to 350 megawatts. As Phil mentioned during our year-end earnings call, we have budgeted approximately $500 million for this initiative from 2022 to 2025. The other item with direct impact on us is the 2,400 megawatt expansion of Massachusetts’ offshore wind authorization from 3,200 megawatts to 5,600 megawatts. This expansion will help keep the state at the forefront of offshore wind development in the United States. As you can see on Slide 2, there are now more than 10,000 megawatts of unallotted offshore wind authorizations in southern New England and New York, with Massachusetts set to award up to 1,600 megawatts later this year. In fact, the Massachusetts RFP was just issued on Friday of last week. Our offshore wind partnership with Ørsted is very near and dear to my heart since I have overseen that relationship and worked closely with our partner in recent years. It is an important element of our clean energy growth strategy and we have had a number of positive offshore wind developments already this year. Starting with Slide 3 in early January, the Bureau of Ocean Management, or BOEM released its draft environment impact statement on the South Fork project. Comments were received by late February and we expect to see a final EIS late this summer. BOEM is scheduled to rule on our final federal permits for that project in January of 2022. Assuming that the January date is met, we expect to begin construction early next year and complete the project in late 2023. Additionally, in late March the New York Public Service Commission approved the necessary New York State siting permit for the project where the local town and trustees of East Hampton approved the local real estate rights required for the project. Turning to Revolution Wind, late last month BOEM released a schedule for reviewing the 704 megawatt project. The schedule calls for a final environmental impact statement to be issued in March of 2023 and for a final decision on construction and operating plan by the end of July 2023. The release of that schedule represents a significant step forward for this project. Revolution Wind and South Fork are two of only three projects in the northeast that have achieved that milestone. Over the coming months, we and Ørsted will be reviewing the BOEM and the State of Rhode Island permitting process to develop a projection for the Revolution Wind construction schedule. Finally, we expect to receive BOEM review schedule for our 924 megawatt Sunrise Wind project later this year. We continue to make significant progress in preparing for the commencement of construction. Over the past couple of months, we have announced agreements with two critical ports that will serve as staging grounds for construction. New London, Connecticut will serve as a hub for turbine construction, and Providence, Rhode Island will the center for foundation construction. Enormous economic benefits will accrue to these communities as a result of their role in our construction activities, including hundreds of direct jobs. We are also very encouraged by the extremely positive signs we see from Washington. President Biden has underscored his support for offshore wind construction along the Atlantic seaboard and has marshalled multiple members of his cabinet to support it. Their goal is to have about 30,000 megawatts of offshore wind turbines operating in the U.S. by 2030. We expect to be a significant contributor to that output through our partnership with Ørsted. Already, more than 1,750 megawatts are under contract to serve load in Connecticut, New York and Rhode Island. Again, I look forward to speaking with many of you at the AGA virtual conference later this month. Now I will turn over the call to Phil.
Phil Lembo:
Thanks Joe. This morning I will cover a couple of topics. I’ll review the results of our first quarter 2021 and discuss and add to some of the regulatory developments in Connecticut and at FERC. I’ll start with Slide No. 4, and noting that earnings were $1.06 per share in the first quarter compared with earnings of $1.01 per share in the first quarter of 2020. Results for both years included after-tax cost associated with our recent acquisition of the assets of Columbia Gas of Massachusetts, and that’s $0.02 per share this year and $0.01 per share in 2020. Resulting for our electric distribution and natural gas distribution segment showed the most significant changes year to year. Electric distribution earned $0.27 per share in the first quarter of this year compared with earnings of $0.39 per share in the first quarter of 2020. Lower results were driven by a couple of principle factors. The first is that we recorded a charge of $30 million or $0.07 per share primarily to reflect customer credits of $28.4 million and an additional penalty of $1.6 million to be paid to the State of Connecticut. These credits relate to a notice of violation that Connecticut regulators announced last week as a result of our performance in restoring power following the catastrophic impact of Tropical Storm Isaias last August. The docket established by PURA to review the penalty is scheduled to run through mid-July of this year. Additionally, electric distribution results were negatively affected by approximately $20 million of higher storm-related expenses in the first quarter of 2021, and that’s compared to a pretty quiet and warm first quarter in 2020. In fact, in this quarter we experienced 31 separate storm events across our three states versus fairly limited activity in Q1 of 2020. By contrast, our natural gas distribution segment showed a sharp increase in earnings because it’s now about 50% larger than it was a year ago. It earned $0.43 per share in the first quarter of 2021 compared with earnings of $0.26 per share in the first quarter of 2020. Improved results were due primarily to the addition of Eversource Gas of Massachusetts, which earned $0.14 per share in the quarter. In addition, we had higher revenues at NSTAR Gas and Yankee Gas, and these were partially offset by higher O&M and depreciation expense. I should note that the transition process for Eversource Gas of Massachusetts continues to progress extremely well as we continue to migrate off of NiSource business systems and onto Eversource platforms, reducing costs and improving service. To date, more than 80% of the business processes have been transferred to Eversource from NiSource - great progress has been made. Eversource ownership of the distribution system is being well received by customers, communities and employees, and we continue to meet or exceed the financial and operational targets we’d set for ourselves. On the electric transmission segment, we earned $0.39 per share in the first quarter of 2021 compared with $0.38 per share in the first quarter of 2020. Improved results were driven by a higher level of investment in transmission facilities, and this was partially offset by dilution of additional shares issued. Our water distribution segment earned $3.6 million in the first quarter of 2021 compared with earnings of $2.1 million in the first quarter of last year. Improved results were due largely to lower interest expense and a lower effective tax rate. As you may have noticed, last month Aquarion announced an agreement to purchase a small investor-owned water system that is based in Connecticut but also serves portions of Massachusetts and New Hampshire. New England Service Company, as it’s called, serves about 10,000 customers in the three states and has a rate base of about $25 million. This acquisition is consistent with the growth strategy we’ve discussed for our water delivery business, and assuming timely regulatory approvals, we expect to close the transaction by the end of this year and for it to be accretive right away in 2022. Rounding out the reconciliation, Eversource parent was down $0.02 per share in the first quarter of 2021, and that’s excluding the Eversource Gas of Massachusetts transition costs, the same as during the first quarter of last year, so $0.02 in each year. As you probably noted in our news release and you can see on Slide 5, we are reaffirming our long term earnings per share growth rate in the upper half of the 5% to 7% range; however, we’ve modified our current year 2021 earnings guidance to reflect the customer credits I mentioned earlier. We now project EPS towards the lower end of the $3.81 to $3.93 range, and this includes the $0.07 per share impact of the credits. On the regulatory side, while our primary operating companies don’t have any base rate reviews pending, we have several regulatory dockets open in Connecticut, and I’ll summarize the status of a few of them. In addition to the penalty I described previously, PURA also identified a 90 basis point reduction in our authorized distribution ROE. This is likely to be addressed in the current CL&P interim rate decrease proceeding. Given the revised schedule that PURA released last week, we believe any ROE reduction would not take place or take effect until October 1 of this year. To help you size that impact, currently CL&P’s authorized ROE is 9.25%, and we have approximately $5 billion of rate base at CL&P. Also on April 28, PURA finalized an interim decision on the recovery of certain tracked costs by CL&P. This decision would result in a number of changes to those tracked costs that would be implemented on June 1 with other modifications deferred until October 1. The interim decision implemented a number of positive modifications to an earlier draft, and we appreciate PURA making those changes in its decision. PURA also continues to review several other dockets, including potential for grid modernization initiatives, including AMI, electric vehicle programs and storage, and the status of the major open PURA dockets is listed in an appendix to our slides. Turning from Connecticut to Washington, we were disappointed last month in the developments around the ongoing notice of proposed rate making concerning incentive that FERC has granted for many years to utilities that participate in regional transmission organizations, or RTOs. FERC will be taking comments and replies on the proposed changes over the next several weeks before deciding on a final order. I would expect that the New England transmission owners and others will file comments opposing the change, which some see as being inconsistent with the Energy Policy Act of 2005 and with President Biden’s focus on building out the nation’s electrical infrastructure to bring more clean energy resources to market. As a helpful rule of thumb, a 10 basis point reduction in our transmission ROE affects consolidated earnings by about a penny per share. In terms of financings, we completed $450 million of debt issuances so far this year, primarily to pay off maturities at Eversource parent and at Aquarion in Connecticut. We have not issued any additional equity this year other than through our ongoing dividend reinvestment and employee incentive programs; however, as you know and we have stated in the past, we continue to expect to issue approximately $700 million of new equity through some sort of aftermarket program, and that would occur at various points in time over our forecast period. In terms of our operations, we’ve gotten off to a very strong start this year. Electric reliability continues to be in the top quartile of the industry versus our peers. Through March, our above average safety record improved even further with fewer employee injuries than we experienced in the first quarter of 2020. All three of our natural gas utilities are outperforming on their emergency response requirements, and Aquarion’s water quality is solidly exceeding its target. Thank you for joining us this morning. I’ll turn the call back to Jeff for Q&A.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you Phil. I’m going to return the call over to Brandon just to remind you how to enter questions.
Operator:
[Operator instructions]
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you Brandon. Our first question this morning is from Angie Storozynski from Seaport Global. Good morning Angie.
Angie Storozynski:
Good morning guys. Thank you. My first question, you maintained the growth projections beyond ’21 off of 2020, so what is the offset to the lower earnings in Connecticut related to the 90 BPs ROE reduction?
Phil Lembo:
Thanks Angie, thanks for your call. As you can imagine, in any forecast it incorporates our best results on a lot of key assumptions, so rates and ROEs, interest rates, capex forecasts, what we’re looking forward on in term of O&M, etc., so incorporating each of those elements into the forecast, we’re comfortable in that upper half of the 5% to 7% range going forward.
Angie Storozynski:
Okay, then the incremental capex that you gave had proposed AMI, etc. in Connecticut. In light of this reduced ROE, should we expect that you will eventually shift some of the regulated spending on the regulated electric side away from Connecticut? If you could comment on projections for capex at Connecticut.
Phil Lembo:
Sure. Our goal is to provide safe and reliable service and outstanding customer service to all our customers, whether they be electric or gas or water, whether they be in Connecticut, Massachusetts or New Hampshire. Our investment profile is geared to ensuring that those high standards can be met. We’re very proud of the results we’ve been able to put up year after year in terms of where our reliability ranks, and usually it’s in the top decile versus our peers, so we’re continuing to focus on our vegetation management and making investments there to ensure that we have a reliable system. That’s the primary focus of how we determine the investments as to how it impacts in a positive way our customer service.
Angie Storozynski:
Great, and just a last question about the electric transmission ROE. I understand the RTO adder is still up for debate. Now, how about the recess of the base ROEs for New England in light of this proposed removal of the RTO adder? Do you expect now that the base ROE will also fall?
Phil Lembo:
Well Angie, that’s a question that I’ve been asked for, I’d say, many years and many quarters now, and as you know, we have four open cases at the FERC that really go back a decade, our oldest one in terms of open dockets there. It’s hard to predict the timing or the outcome of what those cases will show, so I’m not sure how exactly the FERC will look at the interplay between the incentive docket versus the base case docket, but certainly I think the thing that folks should keep in mind is something I said in my comments, which is very public - you know, policy desires by the Biden administration to electrification and to bring--connect clean energy resources, and there’s no region of the U.S. that’s connecting more clean energy resources than New England, and obviously we serve the primary load centers in New England and can help deliver that clean energy both from an offshore wind perspective but also from a transmission perspective. We’ve have to wait and see the timing and how those play out, but I wish I had a crystal ball that could predict an answer at this stage, but I don’t.
Angie Storozynski:
Understood, thank you.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you Angie. Next question this morning is from Steve Fleishman from Wolfe. Good morning Steve.
Steve Fleishman:
Hey, good morning. Thanks. Just to clarify, for 2021 guidance, Phil, are you incorporating the 90 BPs reduction starting October 1 in that guidance, the low end?
Phil Lembo:
Yes, that proceeding is underway now, and certainly we would incorporate that outcome into the guidance. There’s only--you know, if it was a quarter, if you say it’s October, that might be a $0.01 impact to the year, Steve.
Steve Fleishman:
Yes, okay. Good. Then Joe or Phil, Joe made the comment about areas to improve on your response plan and improving the relationship with PURA. Could you just give a little more color on how you’re going to do that, or just strategies there? You had [indiscernible] grid obviously settle a lot of issues with pretty much all parties [indiscernible] that settlement, so how do you go about--
Joe Nolan:
Yes, sure. Thanks Steve. I’ve spent a lot of time down in Connecticut. I spent several-- a couple days there last week. We’re engaged with all of the communities that we serve. We’re really focusing in on their priorities, PURA’s priorities. We obviously took that audit to heart. It’s a complex, 150-page audit, and there’s areas that we know that we could use some improvement on, and that’s what we’re focused on. But I also did remind folks that the storm in question, Isaias, we’ve never assembled that many crews - you know, 2,550 crews during the pandemic. It required double of everything - 6,000 hotel rooms, 14,000 meals a day, double the number of trucks. It was quite a unique situation, and I think that we can always improve and we will continue to work at that. We want to win the hearts and minds of our customers back in Connecticut, and obviously we’re sorry if we let them down during that storm.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay, great. Thank you.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
All right, next question is from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Bank of America. Good morning Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey, good morning Jeff and team. Thank you guys very much. Maybe if I can ask the first question a new way, pivoting off of Steve’s framework, how do you think about performance-based rates here as an avenue to demonstrate change, and what’s the timeline for implementation there? Do you see that as part of the next Connecticut case here? Just curious as to how you end this 90 basis point impact, if you will.
Phil Lembo:
Thanks Julien, it’s Phil. In terms of just the mechanics, the performance-based rate docket is to be opened by June of this year, so right now there’s no docket number but the expectation is that that would be open by June of 2021. We thrive on performance measures. I think one of the keys to our success over many years is we have a very aggressive performance management system. We measure and monitor all of our key performance metrics, whether they be reliability, how frequently a customer has an outage, how long the outage takes to restore, what’s the safety performance of our employees, what’s the diversity of our workforce. We measure many different metrics and we perform well on them, whether you look at comparison to historical performance or where we fall relative to peer groups. Performance is part of our DNA, and I think we’ve delivered that. We have elements of performance-based rates in other jurisdictions - in Massachusetts for many years, they’ve had these SQI, or Service Quality Index measures where we’ve had to perform against and we’ve been very successful there. But as you know, the design of those measures is important and we would hope to work in a collaborative and constructive way with PURA and other intervenors during that process. But the idea of performance-based measures is something that we live with every day, and the docket for that is starting middle of this year.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. Maybe to dovetail with that, precisely what is the expectation on when this 90 basis point impact would roll off, if you will? I presume in tandem with a future rate review or a PBR, or what have you, but back to you on that.
Phil Lembo:
Yes, back to me. The decision itself said indefinite, so that’s the only direction at this point, Julien, is that wording in the order said that the 90 basis points would be indefinite.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Okay, all right. Excellent, I’ll leave it there. Thank you all very much.
Phil Lembo:
Thank you.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you Julien. Our next question this morning is from Durgesh Chopra from Evercore. Good morning Durgesh.
Durgesh Chopra:
Hey, good morning Jeff. I just had two Connecticut-related questions, really quick clarifications rather than questions. Phil, there’s a mixed bag in terms of the pass through charges, some sort of going through or will be effective June 1, and the other is October 1. Just high level, the impact or the cash impact on that delay is pretty miniscule. Am I thinking about that right?
Phil Lembo:
Yes, I wouldn’t say it’s miniscule. I mean, it’s probably $150 million that would be spread out into the future, so it’s not insignificant but it’s not larger than that.
Durgesh Chopra:
About $150 million. Then just quickly, roughly I think the number is close to $270 million in deferred costs, the storm Isaias cost. When do we get a final ruling on that, the recovery of that?
Phil Lembo:
There’s many states that have some costs that are deferred with that. The largest is in Connecticut - it’s about $230 million of deferred storm costs related to Isaias. There were storm costs in Massachusetts and New Hampshire also, but at a smaller level. Each state has their own protocol for timing of when you go in and file for that, so we haven’t developed that filing. We certainly had provided some information on our cost during the previous docket - you know, PURA had asked that we get the best estimate of what we had seen to date, but unfortunately we have some invoices that come in over time and we have to gather them all, make sure they’re all accurate. We don’t pay anything unless we’ve reviewed it three times, I guess four ways from Sunday is the expression, so we don’t pay for things that are inappropriate and we take those back. After we go through that process, then we do a filing, so that filing could come in a future proceeding, it could come in a base rate proceeding. It just depends on the various states, but I would expect that those filings would be done over the next year or two in the various states.
Durgesh Chopra:
Got it, perfect. Thank you Phil.
Phil Lembo:
You’re welcome.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you Durgesh. Next question is from Insoo Kim from Goldman Sachs. Good morning Insoo.
Insoo Kim:
Hey, good morning Jeff. My first question is going back to Connecticut. In the interim rate docket, there’s been some testimony filed about the allowed ROE but also the equity layer, and now the party’s suggesting that the equity layer should be decreased meaningfully from the current 53%. Just curious on your thoughts there and whether there’s a way for you to potentially adjust the balance sheet to address this.
Phil Lembo:
Sure Insoo, thanks for your question. Certainly in ROE, capital structure, all the revenue requirement elements are part of any sort of analysis that you would do, so capital structure is one part of it and certainly PURA has broad authority in a rate setting process, so that’s the framework that we work within. It hasn’t been the practice in the past in Connecticut. It’s been the practice to maintain the capital structure for each of the subsidiaries in a way that’s appropriate for that subsidiary to finance its capital needs. We do that in a very disciplined manner. Obviously we have rating agency considerations and any change in capital structure could have a positive or negative effect on ratings, just as regulatory rulings could have a positive or negative impact on ratings, so we’ll work collaboratively, constructively with PURA over whatever docket these issues come up in; but at this stage, the precedent has been that the operating companies would have their unique capital structures that reflect their unique characteristics. Don’t forget too that at a parent company, there’s things that have nothing to do with the customer rate issues. There could be investments, like non-regulated investments - that’s where our offshore wind is financed. During construction, we finance that with debt. You recall sort of painfully, I know I recall that we had a write-off of our Northern Pass transmission project - that’s doesn’t impact customers, that goes right to the parent, so there’s things that the parents takes, sort of protects the capital structure of the operating companies. That’d be something that would get reviewed in any kind of rate setting process.
Insoo Kim:
Right, okay. Thanks for that color. My other question is on offshore wind. With Ørsted recently discussing some of the structural improvements they need to make in some of the projects they have online, are there any [indiscernible] implications on a cost or construction planning process for the planned projects in the U.S.?
Phil Lembo:
No, we’re good on that. I think that in a broader case, if you look at--you know, we’ve been closely monitoring supply chain issues, and you’ve got a pandemic, and our teams, both at our utility as well as on the project, this is priority number one in terms of the supply chain. This is where I think size really matters - you know, having the buying power of an Ørsted or having the buying power of an Eversource, and then having the combined buying power really helps us to have relationships and schedules and multi-year supply chain agreements that put us in good shape, so we haven’t seen any significant impact at this stage.
Insoo Kim:
Got it, thanks Phil. Congrats Joe.
Joe Nolan:
Thank you.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you Insoo. Next question is from Sophie Karp from Keybanc. Good morning Sophie.
Sophie Karp:
Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my question. I wanted to switch gears to New England Gas and the results there. I’m just curious of the first quarter results were influenced by any particular developments that are not typical, the usual seasonality to experience in the future. It seems like it’s a very strong result, so I was wondering if there were any one-offs or weather impacts there that we should consider going forward. Thank you.
Phil Lembo:
Thank you for your question, Sophie. The subsidiary--you know, when we purchased Columbia Gas of Massachusetts from NiSource, we branded, renamed that Eversource Gas of Massachusetts, so that Eversource Gas of Massachusetts is the former Columbia Gas subsidiary. NSTAR Gas remains in Massachusetts and Yankee Gas remains in Connecticut, so I’ll answer the question for Eversource Gas of Massachusetts. There’s nothing particularly noteworthy, it’s just the operational results of that franchise delivered the $0.14 result. Just like our other gas franchise, you can expect that the first quarter is probably going to be the strongest quarter that you see out of--you know, because it’s a heavy heating quarter, and the fourth quarter is a heating quarter, not as strong as the first quarter but is also a heating quarter. Not a lot of heating going on in the second and third quarters in the gas business, so those tend to be--you know, either small or limited contributions, or even negative contribution in those months. But the profile, the earnings profile is very similar to NSTAR Gas and Yankee Gas in terms of when the earnings come in, and it was just from regular ongoing operations in that business, nothing unusual.
Sophie Karp:
Thank you, that’s helpful. That’s all from me.
Phil Lembo:
You’re welcome, Sophie.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thanks Sophie. Next question this morning is from Jeremy Tonet from JP Morgan. Good morning Jeremy.
Jeremy Tonet:
Hi, good morning. Just wanted to turn to offshore wind a little bit more, if you might be able to provide a little bit more commentary. It seemed like under the prior administration, things had slowed a bit as far as the process, and it seems like the opposite could be true with the new administration and things are maybe moving a bit faster. Just curious for your thoughts on that, if you see potential for things to move more smoothly maybe than what the current outline is. Then just with what you’ve received with Revolution, any thoughts on when we might get more color on capex or the project details, I guess down the line. Just looking for color on those thoughts.
Joe Nolan:
Yes, thanks so much for the question, and good morning. Obviously it’s been a breath of fresh air with the Biden administration. We have had--we have weekly meetings down there with various administration officials. The White House hosted a meeting with the offshore wind developers probably about a month and a half ago. They had four cabinet secretaries and two of the climate czars on that call, and the focus down there is what can we do to help move this agenda. We’re already seeing decisions that are coming out of there at a much faster pace than we’d seen in previous administrations, and it’s really been a sea change for this business. We’re very, very optimistic that the process will move along much faster and it will be much more orderly for all developers, not just for our projects. But yes, it’s been a sea change.
Phil Lembo:
In terms of the second part of the question, in terms of construction investment, as you can imagine and we’ve said before, working with our partners, the construction strategy, the investment amounts, I don’t want to say that--I guess they’re part of the competitive bid process is the best way to say it. We’ve been giving limited disclosure on the capex base, and there’s an RFP coming up in Massachusetts so obviously we want to be able to look at that and put ourselves in the best available position. I’d say that we’d have to get a little bit further down the road in terms of RFPs that are sort of in the win column before we would give out too much information that we would consider to be of competitive interest in these bids.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it, that’s helpful. Thanks. Maybe just pivoting over to the water side, I’m curious if you can refresh us, how deep do you see opportunity set there? Is this the type of pick-up we should expect every year, every other year? Just looking for more color on the strategy, how you see it coming together at this point.
Phil Lembo:
Well, our strategy in the water business, we’ve been consistent and we’ve outlined that for the last several years that we like the water business. We think that it fits very well with our clean energy story, it fits very well in terms of our regulated infrastructure skill set, so we’d like to grow that business and we can grow it in a couple of different--two or three different ways - organically through looking at investments that we make in the system, we can accumulate small roll-ups, we’ve done a half dozen or 10 or so of those over the last few years, or you could do something that is larger in scale and scope. Not that this particular transaction is going to change the footprint so much of Aquarion, but it does add 10,000 customers into the Aquarion family, and we’ll look for opportunities that can do that. We think there are opportunities that are out there and we’re active in evaluating those, and then we’re active in searching out other opportunities, so we think that there’s plenty of opportunities to be had. It may not be just in the six state New England region - you know, there could be opportunities in adjacent states that would help increase the number of customers for Aquarion. But I can assure you that our goal is not to just add customers. Our goals are always to do--you know, one, there has to be something in it for customers. You don’t want to get bigger just for the sake of being bigger. What do you bring that could make for better customer service, that can lower costs to customers over the long period of time, and also that the deal can be accretive on the financial side. We carefully--we probably pass on more deals or lose out on more deals because of our discipline there, but we’ll continue to maintain that discipline in any business opportunity that we look at. We don’t want to get bigger just to get bigger.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it, that’s helpful. I’ll leave it there. Thanks.
Phil Lembo:
Thank you.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you Jeremy. Next question is from Paul Patterson from Glenrock. Good morning Paul.
Paul Patterson:
Hey, good morning. Can you hear me?
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Yes.
Paul Patterson:
Just to sort of come back to Connecticut, reading all these, and it’s a myriad of filings and orders and what have you, I get the sense that there’s a rate resistance there or concern about rates. As you guy have--they also want transformation and they want a lot of investment, so--at least that’s how I’m seeing it. They want both these things, and I’m just wondering how you thread the needle here or how you picture this, if on the one hand there’s a demand for more investment but on the other hand, there seems to me at least to be, whether it’s their comments on the take back, the Grid Act, just a panoply of stuff here that they basically are apprehensive about rate increases, or want lower rates. How should we think about that?
Joe Nolan:
Thanks for the question, Paul. I think when we look at the price per kilowatt hour, the rates in Connecticut, I think it’s important to highlight for folks just how clean and how carbon-free that power is that’s delivered in Connecticut. You need to really strip out what portion of it is not [indiscernible] if you want to do a comparison across the country. I would say that the folks in Connecticut, really the folks in New England are getting a very clean, green kilowatt hour, and these are initiatives that administrations and regulators have taken upon themselves to bring to customers, and that’s something that they need to balance. Obviously there’s other things that they want to do down there, and I think it would only be fair that you break out what really is the utilities and what is state mandates or regional mandates, and that’s something I think we work every day at trying to tell that story. We’re certainly very proud of our initiatives as it relates to a carbon-free future.
Paul Patterson:
Okay, but is there anything that we should think about in terms of potentially offsetting these rates, or is there any--I mean, it’s one thing for them to be wanting green energy and everything, it’s another thing to actually be wanting to pay for it. Is there any sense that we should get in terms of whether or not--you know, how that might fall out, I guess, the two competing interests, so to speak?
Joe Nolan:
Sure. I think the biggest lever on that side would be energy efficiency, and as you know, we are number one in the country as it relates to energy efficiency. I think what we’re doing is helping our customers use energy more wisely and reduce their consumption, which obviously will drive at that price issue. If you’re paying a little bit more but we’re helping you use less, at the end of the day the result is a net savings, and that’s what I think we’re very, very good and we’ve obviously been recognized nationally for that.
Paul Patterson:
Okay.
Joe Nolan:
Did you want to add something, Phil?
Phil Lembo:
Yes, just one thing, Joe, on that too is our transmission investments, the investments we’ve made for increased reliability on our transmission grid really help to lower congestion costs in the region, so those are a direct savings to customers as it flows through the energy part of a customer’s bill. The forward capacity market is down, things like that, so those are--you know, the investments we make in our transmission business are also helping customers, so that’s another way that bills can go down. Certainly we don’t--we are sort of out of the supply market, but certainly as supply costs move down, that’s a helpful benefit to customers.
Paul Patterson:
Okay, great. Thanks so much.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you Paul. Next question is from David Arcaro from Morgan Stanley. Good morning David.
David Arcaro:
Hey, good morning. Thanks so much for taking my question. I was just wondering, could you run through your latest outlook for equity needs here in light of some of the moving pieces with earnings, with ROE, with tracked costs, etc.?
Phil Lembo:
Thanks David. Our equity needs are the same as we’ve stated in the past, which is they total, let’s call it a $1.2 billion over five years. It’s about $100 million a year through our dividend reinvestment, employee stock purchase type of issuances - that aspect is about 100 a year, so our forecast is five years, there’s $500 million. As I said in my remarks and we’ve stated before, over the course of our forecast period, we’re looking to do about $700 million of new equity through maybe some sort of aftermarket type of program, so those needs at this stage have not changed.
David Arcaro:
Okay, great. Thanks. I just wanted to double check, how much of the $0.07 from this quarter is one-time, or is any of that recurring?
Phil Lembo:
No, that’s just the--it’s related to the $30 million penalty, one-time.
David Arcaro:
Okay, great. Wanted to confirm. Sounds good, thanks so much.
Phil Lembo:
Thank you.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thanks David. Next question is from Mike Weinstein at Credit Suisse. Good morning Mike.
Mike Weinstein:
Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to clarify, does any portion of the Isaias penalty flow through the decoupling mechanism to be deferred to the next base rate case, and what is the timing of the base rate case, the next one for CL&P?
Phil Lembo:
This is a direct credit to customers. There’s no putting it back into the decoupling. This is a penalty, a charge that goes back to customers, so this flows directly back to customers. The timing of the next proceeding would be when that PBR mechanism, maybe that kicks it off, but by statute we’re ending a three-year rate settlement that we had in place. We’re required to file every four years in Connecticut, so the next filing that we would look to do is next year, in 2022 in terms of our expectations of when we would file for new base rates in Connecticut.
Mike Weinstein:
Got you. A follow-up on Paul Patterson’s line of thinking, I was thinking the same thing - I mean, does this provide--do you think the storm provides a boost to grid modernization in Connecticut as the state continues to review that? Maybe it’s more of an opportunity for the utility going forward.
Joe Nolan:
Thanks so much for the question. It does. There’s a lot of dialog actually in both Massachusetts and Connecticut around grid mod, around AMI. We certainly have a seat at the table and we are fully engaged, and I do think there’s an opportunity to demonstrate some of the technologies that are available, that would, number one, empower our customers but also enhance the grid to allow for greater reliability and cost savings for our customers, so yes, I definitely agree that this should provide us the platform.
Mike Weinstein:
Got you. Can you remind us what you’re assuming for FERC transmission ROE in the long term guidance? I remember you’re fairly conservative, I think, at the current--you know, what you’re currently allowed. You don’t have anything higher than that? Just curious what’s in there.
Phil Lembo:
That’s correct, the current allowed 10.57 base rate.
Mike Weinstein:
Got you. I tell you, it’s striking - just a year ago, the positive reaction from the Massachusetts regulators and the governor towards the company when they wanted you to take control of Columbia Gas out there, and with what’s happening in Connecticut, it’s a striking difference across the company. Hopefully you can figure out a way to, I guess, get the Connecticut regulators to see you the same way that they see you in Massachusetts.
Joe Nolan:
We agree. We’re always sought after during natural disasters and crises for our team to come in and take care of business for folks across the country, so it obviously is disturbing when that takes place. But rest assured we will win back the hearts and minds of folks in Connecticut. It was a very unique storm during a pandemic. Folks had been sheltering in place for many, many months and obviously the loss of electricity and connectivity poses great challenges for folks, and we recognize that and we are going to do all we can to turn that situation around and have the same level of confidence that folks here in Massachusetts did certainly when we got called upon for the Columbia Gas situation. I think that we can do that. I feel good about a path forward, so thank you for that question.
Mike Weinstein:
Great, thank you very much.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thanks Mike. Next question is from Travis Miller from Morningstar. Good morning Travis.
Travis Miller:
Good morning everyone. Thank you. You’ve answered very comprehensively most of my questions, but two quick ones from me, one on Connecticut. Does the PURA activity, both the decisions and the ongoing stuff, does that take away any legislative actions that were out there? Are there still any proposals on the legislation side?
Joe Nolan:
Yes, thanks Travis for the question. The legislature during this session has really allowed PURA to implement a lot of the stuff that they had done in the fall legislation, so we’re not seeing any activity, and right now they are just trying to put the rules in place and that’s really what we’re actively involved in. We have not seen any additional legislative activity other than some basic stuff around maybe solar or storage.
Travis Miller:
Okay, great. Then a quick one on offshore wind - with the schedule that you now have, what’s the flexibility in terms of technology? We’re seeing technology develop almost daily in terms of offshore wind - efficiency and turbine size and stuff. What kind of flexibility do you have in the next two, three years before you start putting steel in the ground to change that?
Joe Nolan:
Yes, so another helpful question. It’s interesting - when you think of delay, everyone always thinks cost increases, but I will tell you that in this business, the offshore wind business, it has been incredible the types of advancement in technology, turbine sizes. I will tell you that our permits, all the permits that we have filed have that level of flexibility to be able to upsize, so I will tell you that delay in these circumstances has been a very positive thing for our business, and we’re very, very optimistic.
Travis Miller:
Okay, so the EIS doesn’t lock you into any kind of technology or anything?
Joe Nolan:
No, but it has caps on size. We can take it up to maybe a 14 megawatt, but that’s the level of flexibility, up in that range.
Travis Miller:
Okay, great. Thanks so much.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
All right, thank you Travis. I know a number of folks have already moved onto the 10 o’clock call, so we’ll end it here. Thank you very, very much for all your time today. If you have any additional questions, please let us know, give us a call or send us an email, and we look forward to seeing you at the coming conferences.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s conference. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good morning and welcome to the Eversource Energy fourth quarter and year-end 2020 results conference. My name is Brandon and I’ll be your operator for today. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session, during which you may dial star, one if you have a question. Please note this conference is being recorded. I will now turn it over to Jeffrey Kotkin. You may begin, sir.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you Brandon. Good morning and thank you for joining us. I’m Jeff Kotkin, Eversource Energy’s Vice President for Investor Relations. During this call, we’ll be referencing slides that we posted last night on our website to be forward-looking as defined within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on management’s current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainty which may cause the actual results to differ materially from forecasts and projections. These factors are set forth in the news release issued yesterday. Additional information about the various factors that may cause actual results to differ can be found in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2019 and our Form 10-Q for the three months ended September 30, 2020. Additionally, our explanation of how and why we use certain non-GAAP measures and how those measures reconcile to GAAP results is contained within our news release and the slides we posted last night, and in our most recent 10-K. Speaking today will be Jim Judge, our Chairman, President and CEO, and Phil Lembo, our Executive Vice President and CFO. Also joining us today are Werner Schweiger, our EVP and Chief Operating Officer; Joe Nolan, our EVP for Strategy and Customer and Corporate Relations; John Moreira, our Treasurer and Senior VP for Finance and Regulatory; and Jay Booth, our VP and Controller. Now I will turn to Slide 2 and turn over the call to Jim.
Jim Judge:
Thank you Jeff, and thank you everyone for joining us today for our review of 2020 results and our updated long-term outlook. First, let me say I hope that all is well with you and your families in what’s been a challenging year for everyone. I’ll start my comments by thanking our more than 9,000 Eversource Energy colleagues for their exceedingly hard work in extraordinarily difficult circumstances in 2020. Not only did they have to deal with the first pandemic to strike the country in more than a century but they also had to address the highest level of storm activity ever for our company, as well as the hottest summer on record in large parts of our service territory. Through it all, they worked safely and professionally, keeping their fellow workers and our customers first in mind. As you can see on Slide 4, despite 107 major and minor storms that struck our service territory in 2020, we successfully executed our $3 billion capital program. These expenditures are critical to enhance the resilience of our energy and water delivery systems as well as to connect new customers and to support safe, clean energy initiatives. 2020 was also a year during which we advanced a number of our strategic initiatives. At the end of February, we executed an agreement with NiSource to buy its Columbia Gas and Massachusetts assets, and we closed on that acquisition in early October, just seven months later. The acquisition added about 5% to our regulated business and has been extremely well received by state policymakers and by the more than 330,000 customers that Eversource Gas Company of Massachusetts now serves. We continue to expect the transaction to be accretive in 2021 and progressively more accretive in the years ahead as we steadily increase our level of investment in the Eversource Gas system. Phil will profile some of these investments shortly. Over the past 12 months, we’ve also moved ahead on the permitting of our three offshore wind projects and we are developing strategies to meet our industry-leading target of achieving carbon neutrality by 2030. On the financial side, we achieved balanced outcomes in rate cases affecting our two operating companies that have struggled in recent years to earn their allowed returns. We also maintained our track record dating back to the 2012 merger that created Eversource while posting attractive earnings and dividend growth. Turning to Slide 5, you can see some of the very solid operating metrics that we achieved in 2020 despite the unprecedented challenges of COVID and incessant storm activity. I am extremely proud of the operating record our employees achieved on behalf of our customers. Slide 6 illustrates what we’re able to achieve on behalf of our shareholders. 2020 was far from the best year for utilities, as you know, but we were able to achieve a 4.5% total return for our shareholders, keeping us in the top tier of our AI peers in the short, medium and long term. Medium and longer term returns also compare favorably to the S&P 500. A key element in achieving that long term return record is our steady and attractive dividend growth. As you can see on Slide 7, last week the Eversource board increased the quarterly dividend by approximately 6.2%. You can also see that our payout ratio remains at about 62%, a relatively conservative level that allows about $500 million of our earnings to be invested in our delivery systems each year. We continue to target dividend growth to be in line with earnings growth, which continued in 2020 at a roughly 6% pace. As you can see on Slide 8, we expect that growth rate to be enhanced in the coming years by our Eversource Gas acquisitions and our offshore wind investments. The math associated with the acquisition is quite straightforward. Adding Eversource Gas increased our total regulated rate base by about 5%, but to finance it we only added about 1.8% to our outstanding share count. Since we already operate natural gas and electric utilities adjacent to the Eversource Gas service territory, there are considerable opportunities to bring our high level of service and strong safety culture to our newest customers. Phil will discuss the impact on our capital program in a moment. I’ll now turn it to our long-term strategy of being the principal catalyst to greenhouse gas reductions in New England. Slide 9 shows how far we as a company have come over the past 30 years as we have divested all of our fossil generation, continue to reduce methane leaks from our distribution system, and taken other steps to improve the efficiency of our delivery system, our facilities, and our vehicles. This has enabled us to be in sync with all the states of New England, which are targeting greenhouse gas reductions within their borders of at least 80% by year 2050. Our long-term strategy is built around being a principal enabler of that reduction. While our company operations are not a significant contributor to our state’s greenhouse gas emissions today, we have set a goal of driving our direct emissions to net zero. The left side of Slide 10 highlights our five primary areas of focus in that effort. More significant to the region are the items on the right side. Over their lifetime with more than $500 million that we invested in custom energy efficiency initiatives in 2019 alone will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 3.2 million metric tons. Efforts to significantly expand our zero emissions vehicle charging infrastructure and reduce the number of homes heated with oil offer very significant additional opportunities to reduce the region’s emissions. The most significant initiative we have underway is our partnership with Ørsted that we expect to result in at least 4,000 megawatts of offshore wind facilities being built off the coast of Massachusetts. That will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 6 million tons annually. The current status of our offshore wind efforts is noted on Slide 11. As you can see, our South Fork project received its draft environmental impact statements and comments on that draft are due next week. The U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management continues to target January 2022 for issuing a decision on South Fork’s construction and operations plan, and assuming a positive decision, we continue to target an in-service date by the end of 2023. I should note that all the steps in the South Fork review process have been met either on or ahead of schedule since BOEM established its revised schedule last summer. On the state side, New York hearings on South Fork were completed in December and we expect the state siting decision in the first half of 2021. On the local side, our host community agreement with the Municipality of East Hampton has been approved. On Revolution Wind, we filed our state siting application with Rhode Island at the end of December and it was formally docketed last month. We filed our settle application with BOEM in March of last year and expect BOEM to establish a review schedule for Revolution later this year. On Sunrise, we filed our application with BOEM in September and our state siting application with the New York Public Service Commission in the fourth quarter. Later this year, we expect BOEM to establish a new schedule for Sunrise Wind. Our partnership with Ørsted has never been stronger and we continue to work closely on both the siting and procurement for the projects we have won and in our bids for additional contracts. While we are disappointed that we did not win additional capacity in the latest New York RFP, we will remain very disciplined our bidding and know that there are likely to be several additional RFPs over the next 12 months, including Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and possibly New York. You can see on Slide 12 why we can be so disciplined with our bidding strategy. The 500 square miles of ocean that we have under long-term lease with the federal government are the closest to shore and should be the least expensive to develop and maintain. Moreover, one lease cost us $1 million. Areas that are smaller and much further from shore were leased a few years ago for $135 million apiece. This slide shows the current status of megawatts won and megawatts still to be bid among the four states where we compete. The number of megawatts being sought will continue to rise with pending legislation in Massachusetts likely adding another 2,400 megawatts to the state’s already approved 1,600 megawatts of upcoming RFPs. President Biden continues to express strong support for renewable energy in general and offshore wind specifically. On January 28, the President issued an executive order requiring that the Department of the Interior to conduct a full assessment of offshore wind siting processes so they align with the administration’s goals to advance renewable energy production. The President has also established a White House Office of Domestic Climate Policy and created a [indiscernible] government-wide task force to coordinate actions between agencies. Additionally, actions taken by Congress and the IRS late last year provide additional financial incentives for offshore wind development. As you can see on Slide 13, those incentives include 30% investment tax credits for projects that commence construction before January 2026 with a 10-year safe harbor on projects eligible for tax credits. Taken together, these changes add more certainty to the tax benefits available for offshore wind and underscore the federal government’s support for these projects. Lastly before I turn it over to Phil, I want to emphasize the strong strategic position of Eversource for the coming years. Our corporate strategy is fully aligned with the energy policy of the states we serve. Our execution continues to be extremely strong and our employees and board of trustees are fully engaged. Last week, our board’s corporate governance committee became the Governance Environmental and Social Responsibility Committee with additional direct charter oversight responsibilities for our expanding ESG initiatives. Five years ago, we said we wanted to be viewed as the country’s premier energy company, and some of the citations noted on Slide 4 illustrate the recognition that we received from a number of well-regarded third parties. I’m very confident that our future remains exceedingly bright. Now I’ll turn the call over to Phil.
Phil Lembo:
Thank you Jim. Good morning everyone. I’ll be covering several topics
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you Phil. I’m going to return the call to Brandon just to remind you how to ask questions. Brandon?
Operator:
[Operator instructions]
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Okay, thank you Brandon. Our first question this morning is from Shahriar Pourreza from Guggenheim. Good morning, Shahriar.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Good morning Jeff, good morning guys. Just a couple questions to start off. Just one clarifying question on the growth rate on Slide 8, when the larger offshore wind projects start to kick in. Obviously you state higher than 5% to 7% growth. Are we inferring that we could see a step change in the growth rate to, maybe let’s say 6% to 8%, or simply a higher rebased that year and you would retain your 5% to 7%, and do you have any sense on when you might be adding these projects to your plan? I think you’re obviously waiting for the review schedules from BOEM to solidify the CODs.
Jim Judge:
Yes Shahriar, the review schedule will obviously give us some certainty and definition in terms of the spending profile and the earnings profile, but yes, the expectation is that we will have higher growth as those projects kick in beyond 2025. We’re not resetting or providing guidance as to what that looks like right now, but it clearly will be an incremental contributor to our earnings growth in the late ‘20s.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Got it, so basically a step change in the growth rate? Okay, got it. Then just taking a look at your planned investments at EGMA, you point to $270 million in capex annually there, which is, I think, more than double the amount of capital that NiSource was investing in the system. What’s driving the increased capex - is it just more safety and reliability, and just remind us if you need any sort of regulatory approvals for this spend.
Jim Judge:
The regulatory approval to the extent that capital cap is in place is the norm, but the spending level is more than historically has been spent there, but it’s our assessment that to bring the safety and performance of that infrastructure to the standards that the other Eversource gas companies are able to achieve will require that type of investment in the systems.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Got it.
Phil Lembo:
I could add just a couple--just a little color there, too, is that as you know, that was an asset purchase, not a purchase of the company, so some of the things we’re--we do have some incremental, maybe IT technology types of spend to move over to Eversource systems in the past, and we certainly spend and continue to spend on our gas safety enhancement program. That’s the largest category of spending in that business.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Got it, thank you for that, Phil. Just lastly for me, obviously you highlight there’s a couple more RFPs coming this year, rely on Massachusetts and New York. Just given the bids we’ve seen from obviously some of the oil majors, it may be difficult to be successful, so--but you still do have a lot of excess lease capacity, so you can maybe just elaborate a little bit more on your strategy with the lease areas? Do you see on your leases until the other leases are filled, which could take years, or would you look to potentially monetize some of the space there? Maybe Jim, if you could just elaborate a little bit more on the strategy around those leases.
Jim Judge:
Yes, the strategy has been consistently one of financial discipline. As I’ve told my board and I’ve actually presented to the Ørsted board in the past, you should expect us to lose as many RFPs as we win because we’re intent on having these awards be profitable. We’re excited about the increasing demand, and it seems like every couple of months the numbers go up in terms of the states’ appetite for this. When we look at our situation, there’s plenty of dry powder for those bids. I could be wrong, but I think our leases are under-subscribed compared to the others that are starting to fill up with the existing portfolio of contracts. We will continue to be disciplined and we’re optimistic that the appetite is there for significant build-out of offshore wind, so I think we’re in a very good position.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Terrific, thank you guys. I’ll jump back in the queue. Congrats.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Great, thank you Shahr. Next question this morning is from Jeremy Tonet from JP Morgan. Good morning, Jeremy.
Jeremy Tonet:
Hi, good morning. Wanted to start off with offshore wind here, and wanted to see if you might be able to help us. How much offshore wind can you fit on the leases using the new 13-megawatt turbines versus the 8-megawatt turbines originally discussed? Thanks.
Jim Judge:
Yes, I’ll take a shot at that and others could add. Fundamentally, we’ve been talking about the lease capacity as being 4,000 megawatts historically. When you increase the capacity of the turbines from what was an 8-megawatt turbine to an 11, and as you mentioned potentially 13 going forward, obviously that increases your capacity. At the same time, we have agreed to spacing of the turbines as part of the compromises to get the approval process at BOEM - we’ll be spacing them a mile between each turbine, so that actually reduces your potential capacity. Net-net, we are saying it’s at least 4,000 megawatts and we expect it to--we expect [indiscernible]. More than 4,000 megawatts is the guidance that we’re giving.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it, understood - at least 4,000. That’s helpful, thanks. Just wanted to turn it over to COP for a quick minute here. The COP rate case reopening appears really focused on low income rate structures from what we can see, kind of a very low risk event in our minds. Does it look like this to you, or are we missing something here? Just any color you could provide would be great.
Jim Judge:
Yes, the guidance that we’ve seen is that [indiscernible] will be looking at new rate designs, including possible low income or economic development rates, and may require a possible interim rate reduction. I think it’s important to recognize that we’re not earning our allowed return in that franchise, and we’re mandated and required to come in with a full rate review actually within the next 12 months, I think as Phil mentioned, the first quarter of 2022 a full review is needed. Our understanding or expectation is that any rate design changes that come out there would not necessarily be punitive to the company, especially as we continue to under-earn.
Jeremy Tonet:
That’s very helpful. That’s it for me. Thanks.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you very much. Our next question is from Steve Fleishman from Wolfe. Morning, Steve.
Steve Fleishman:
Hey, good morning, and I apologize in advance if I missed some comments related to my questions. I think one of the first questions asked about the long-term growth rate with the offshore wind, and I think you said, Jim, higher into the late ‘20s. Not to be too picky, but is that suggesting that you’re not really expecting the projects to fully come on until after mid-decade? Should these projects essentially be on for 2025, I guess is my question?
Jim Judge:
Yes, again we’re very hesitant, Steve, to commit to changing dates, especially since we think that we’ll shortly have guidance from the administration in terms of expected timelines. But what we’ve said and continue to say is that South Fork, we expect to be in by the end of 2023, but it’s clear that Revolution wind will not be in by the end of ’23 and Sunrise wind is not expected to be in by the end of ’24, so there’s some slippage there. The full impact of the offshore wind projects, especially the big ones, is clearly a mid-‘20s event, and ITC kicks in there as well, so we’re not talking about the [indiscernible] here, it’s just a map of a project that comes in during the year. You don’t get the full benefit of it until a full calendar year the next year, so I don’t want you to read more into my comments than that, but it’s a step up.
Steve Fleishman:
Yes, okay. No worries on that. I guess it doesn’t matter as much anyway, given the ITC extension and Safe Harbors and stuff. Just maybe on that, is there--I know there’s a lot of moving parts when you look at the economics of the projects you’ve done, but would you characterize the ITC order as improving the economics overall from what you had expected before?
Phil Lembo:
Yes, certainly it significantly improves based upon what we were assuming for ITC at the time of our bids. As you mentioned, there’s a lot of puts and takes - costs go up and down, and so we’re encouraged that the ITC amount is the level that it’s at now, and more importantly the 10-year window, I think de-risks quite a bit the fear that some might have that our ITC level was vulnerable. We see it certainly as a major positive.
Steve Fleishman:
Great, and then lastly on the Connecticut rate review that’s going on, I recognize that it’s not full rates and the like. I don’t really know how to size these issues, like what the basis would be to set any of these interim rates or other things, so do you have any idea how they would even calculate what to do, what the basis would be?
Phil Lembo:
I don’t. There’s probably examples of low income rates or economic development rates that other states have implemented that they could look at as models. What I would say, Steve, is that we’re very early on, early stages of this process, so it’s hard for me to add any certainty there, other than as I mentioned earlier, that we clearly are not earning our allowed return that we have agreed to under a settlement that’s been in place for three years now.
Steve Fleishman:
Yes, okay. Thanks so much.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thanks Steve. Our next question this morning is from Ryan Greenwald from Bank of America. Good morning Ryan.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey, it’s Julien here. Thanks for taking my question. Maybe to follow up in order here, can you talk about the run rate level of contribution from the offshore projects? I know the timing is obviously moving around, and I know you just said that there’s lots of puts and takes, but in an effort to sidestep some of that debate, as best you see it today including the latest update to the ITC, how would you characterize that run rate level of net income contribution, if you will?
Jim Judge:
Yes, again it’s another way, Julien, I guess, of asking the question of providing guidance beyond our forecast horizon here, so I don’t want to publish a number until we have pretty good visibility into the annual cash flows and profile of each of the projects.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it, understood.
Jim Judge:
What we have said and we’re consistent on is that we anticipate these projects to provide mid-teens ROEs, which should be the highest of our business segments, which we feel is appropriate because they are the riskier of the business segments in our portfolio.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it, I appreciate the re-affirmation. On the balance sheet and equity, I just to want make sure I heard you right because you made a couple comments, and I think you didn’t say specifically over what period of time. I think you said $700 million over the next several years. I just want to make sure I’m hearing very clearly about your equity needs and where this positions your balance sheet over the full five-year period, if I can’t ask more directly.
Jim Judge:
Yes, I’ll let Phil answer that for you.
Phil Lembo:
Great, I was going to jump in there, Jim. Julien, for the plan that we’ve put out in terms of the $17 billion capital forecast over the five years, the $700 million supports that plan along with the $100 million a year that we do through the dividend reinvestment in DRIP, so if you add that up, that’s $100 million a year through that and then $700 million through a periodic at-the-market type program. What I suggested was that that would be based upon what market conditions look like, what our metrics are looking like, if there’s changes in terms of puts and takes, in terms of the timing of the investment profile, so those would be the considerations. It would be sometime over the five-year horizon. I don’t expect that it would be in 2021. I would expect that it would be in years other than 2021 in terms of the $700 million. Obviously we’re doing the dividend reinvestment every year, so we’d have that number. Does that clarify it for you?
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Maybe you can say it slightly more definitively. This puts your metrics where from an equity to debt perspective, i.e. this should suffice to maintain your metrics at roughly the same level through the five-year outlook at that equity level, or you’re not ready to make that statement?
Phil Lembo:
That is correct. We would be looking to target the metrics to support the current ratings where they are today.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Okay, with the 700? All right, sorry. I don’t mean to over-emphasize that, I just want to make sure it’s clear. Thank you.
Phil Lembo:
No, that’s fine. You’re welcome.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Okay, our next question this morning is from Angie Storozynski. Good morning, Angie.
Angie Storozynski:
Good morning. I just wanted to follow up on the equity needs. The delta between the rate base growth and the earnings growth, that’s purely about the equity dilution or are there some changes in realized ROEs as well?
Phil Lembo:
Say that again, Angie?
Angie Storozynski:
Well because you’re saying that the rate base is growing at 8%, right, and then you’re saying the earnings growth is after half of the 5% to 7%, right, so let’s just say--let’s just say 6.5%. I’m trying to understand if the delta between 8% and then, say, 6.5% is solely assumption of the equity dilution, or is it some assumed lower ROE or something to that effect?
Phil Lembo:
No, it’s primarily the equity issuance, would be the driver there. Even for 2021, you have to keep in mind that, as I mentioned in my comments, we closed out a forward contract in March and then we had additional shares that we issued in June, so all of those now get into a full year of 2021 that didn’t impact us in 2020, and then as we do the treasury shares and move in the $700 million that I discussed, that would be the primary mechanism that would be causing the difference.
Angie Storozynski:
Okay, thank you. Then on the Columbia Gas - I’m sorry, I’m just going to keep calling it like that for now, is it--the $275 million of capex, I understand that this is your current assessment and that you’re going to be working on incremental capex updates, but can you give us a sense of how big of a delta we could see there? Is it doubling of the $275 million a year? Is it just some tweak to the current capex estimate that you’d expect?
Phil Lembo:
Well, that process, as I said, as part of the rate agreement that we had with Massachusetts when the deal got approved, in September of this year we’ll be filing a report that identifies that, so I’d say it’s a little premature to speculate on what that might look like in terms of sizing. We’re certainly active in terms of looking at that right now. I’d say that we’ve not been--there’s been no surprises in terms of taking the keys. We did it all remotely in a COVID environment, but we did a very in-depth due diligence job, so no surprises there. But I’d say we’re just not at the final stages of that assessment so that I could give you a good answer.
Angie Storozynski:
Okay.
Jim Judge:
Angie, the only thing I’d add is that, as Phil mentioned earlier, in that $275 million, we have some one-time items over the next couple years to fully integrate the shared service functions that are currently being supported by NiSource through a transmission services agreement, so some of that spend in the next two years in particular is really merger integration related.
Angie Storozynski:
Great, and if I may, just one last question. In the climate bill in Massachusetts, the latest version of it at least, it still talks about conversion of numerous houses to electric heat and then maybe less aggressive but still electric-driven construction in the state. How do you see it impacting both your electric utility and gas utility in the state? I mean, it is a Republican governor who seems to be pushing for less natural gas connections for new builds, new construction.
Jim Judge:
Well, I think first of all, both our gas and our electric business in the State of Massachusetts operate under a decoupled rate regime, so the extent volume goes up or down [indiscernible] to an approved revenue level. The biggest opportunity that we have in the State of Massachusetts is in the areas of transportation and home heating oil. More than 50% of the businesses and homes in Massachusetts heat with oil, and there’s significant improvement if you don’t go to electric or you even go to gas, the emissions uptick on improvement, if you will, is significant. I think we’ll work with the State, as we will the other states to make sure that we can aggressively de-carbonize the supplies, but we’re comfortable with where that legislation is and, as Phil mentioned, one of the components allows utility-scale solar build-out and we’re confident enough in it being there in that we’re putting it into our base forecast here for this guidance.
Angie Storozynski:
Good, thank you.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you Angie. Next question this morning is from Durgesh Chopra from Evercore. Good morning Durgesh.
Durgesh Chopra:
Good morning Jeff, thanks. Two quick ones. First, maybe can you--what milestones should we watch for in terms of this rate review in Connecticut, the low income tariff that you mentioned? What is the timeline and what should we be looking for in terms of calendar?
Jim Judge:
Jeff, do you have any specifics of the calendar on that proceeding? I know we’re early on in the process.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Yes, we put the docket up. I don’t think there’s really any--I mean, it’s open-ended right now.
Durgesh Chopra:
Got it, okay. Perfect. Then just one quick clarification in terms of the--I believe the decision is in April on the storm investigation. Just what do you expect there, and how are you accounting for that in your 2021 guidance numbers? Thank you.
Phil Lembo:
Sure, the remaining schedule there is I think [indiscernible] are actually due this week. I think you’d expect a tentative decision about a month later, say mid-March. Written exceptions would probably follow that a few weeks later, and then oral arguments maybe mid-April with a final decision on the 28th. I think PURA is investigating the prudence of the costs. We’re confident that we assembled the largest workforce ever in the State of Connecticut for that storm response, and the vast majority of the costs that are being reviewed have to do with bringing in those external resources, either from other utilities or from contractors. We expect, as we have in the past, that cost recovery would be allowed for these costs, as they were prudent.
Durgesh Chopra:
Understood, thanks guys. Much appreciate the time.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
All right, appreciate it, Durgesh. Next question is from Ryan Levine from Citi. Good morning Ryan.
Ryan Levine:
Good morning Jeff. A couple questions. What percentage of the offshore wind capex do you expect to qualify for the IPC, and are there any steps that the company can take to increase those in the coming months or years? Then I guess the follow-up related to that is how does that differ for some of the prospective projects that you’re looking to bid on?
Jim Judge:
I’d ask Phil or John to provide any insights on that question.
Phil Lembo:
Yes, effectively we would expect all or a majority of the spending to qualify under the ITC provisions.
Ryan Levine:
Okay. I thought there was some component of the portion that’s not considered offshore that may not qualify in terms of the total capex deployed for the project. Are you saying that 100% of the capex is?
Jay Booth:
No, it’s roughly about an 80-20 split, so if you look at the total capex, about 80% of that will be the offshore piece that would qualify for the ITC.
Ryan Levine:
Okay, and there’s no opportunity to move that 80% closer to 100%?
Jay Booth:
No, the rules are pretty clear in terms of what would qualify and what wouldn’t. What it ties to is the onshore piece obviously wouldn’t qualify, and so tying to that onshore piece, that’s deemed onshore.
Ryan Levine:
Does that 80% statistic roughly apply to the prospective projects that you’re looking to bid in the various states?
Jay Booth:
I think for a rule of thumb, it’s probably safe; but again, it all depends on how we look at where we’re going to land and how do we look at the profile that’s out there with what we build in the lease area.
Ryan Levine:
Okay, thank you.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you Jay, and thank you Ryan. Next question is from Nick Lubrano from BMO Capital. Good morning Nick.
James Thalacker:
Hey guys, it’s James Thalacker actually.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Hi James.
James Thalacker:
Hey Jeff. A real question, just confirming--you know, it doesn’t sound like the equity needs that you are forecasting, the $100 million of treasury shares and then the $700 million of incremental equity, has really changed. As we think about the--you know, you’ve got pretty large rate base growth at the Columbia Gas business right now. Is part of the reason that your equity needs aren’t going up materially is because of the rider treatment you have there, as well as the fixed rate increase that you have embedded in the settlement?
Phil Lembo:
Yes, I’d say we do have a number of, I’d call them timely recovery tracker programs, not just at Eversource Gas of Massachusetts but throughout the various subsidiaries, whether they be for accelerated pipe replacement, for safety and pole replacements, things like that, so because of the timely tracker cash recovery, that is very beneficial.
James Thalacker:
Okay, great. Thank you very much, Phil.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
All right, thanks James. Next question is from David Arcaro from Morgan Stanley. Good morning David.
David Arcaro:
Hey, good morning. Thanks so much for taking my question. A couple quick ones. I was just curious, on offshore wind, to the extent there are items that improve the economics, like the higher ITC level or longer wind blades, would those benefits accrue to yourselves or are there opportunities or chances that you would pass any of those back, like in lower rates within the contract mechanism, or anything like that?
Jim Judge:
The contracts don’t call for adjusting the pricing based upon changes like that.
David Arcaro:
Okay, got it. Understood. Then separate topic, I was curious, do you see any prospects for improved acceleration in heat pump use in your states, anything that’s on the horizon that might change the economics or be in favor of using more heat pumps to electrify space heating and potentially increase the electric load going forward?
Jim Judge:
We do have a pilot program that was approved in our NSTAR gas rate case, and so at this stage, I think we’re exploring what those pilots will tell us in terms of the long-term prospects in that geography for that technology.
David Arcaro:
Okay, got it. We’ll watch that. Thanks so much.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
All right, thank you David. Our next question is from Travis Miller from Morningstar. Good morning Travis.
Travis Miller:
Good morning everyone. Thanks. I just wanted to follow up on an earlier question, I think it was Andy’s question about that 8% rate base CAGR, and then the earnings guidance, the 5% to 7%. Understand the equity component. It seems like you’ve got good long-term rate plans in place, not a whole lot of regulatory risk on the other side. Just wondering if you could take us through some variables that might get you to the lower end of that range.
Phil Lembo:
Thanks Travis for your question. We talk about--you know, we’re a regulated business, so certainly regulatory outcomes have an impact on where you end up in any kind of earnings growth or annual range, so outcomes of regulatory cases could move you higher or keep you in the middle, or move you to a different end of the range. Certainly incremental investment opportunities, we’ve identified several of them that are active now in terms of AMI or additional grid modernization, and those are more things that can take you to the higher end of the range. Certainly how you do as a company, any company does on their O&M management is important, and I think you might agree that you can’t really find anybody better than Eversource in controlling costs. Now certainly if there’s cost O&M pressure, that could move you around in the range, so I think those are some of the bigger variables that could move you into different parts of the range. But we’re confident in where we are guiding to, we’re confident in our ability to execute on our investment plans, and as well as run the business in a safe, efficient and effective manner.
Travis Miller:
Great, that’s helpful. Thanks. Then real quick on the electric vehicle charging, if you look out over the five years, you’d mentioned the relatively small program you have now. What do you think about the upside potential in terms of capex, and would we see that more in distribution or is there an opportunity to add transmission in terms of large substations, etc. that would support EV?
Jim Judge:
I think the benchmark, Travis, I mentioned is I think there were only 1,400 chargers in the State of Massachusetts, and we’re finishing up a three-year program that brings that number up to 5,200. But the tie is Connecticut and Massachusetts both have electric vehicles - they’re quite ambitious, we have a slide in here that shows that, so my expectation is that the investments will largely be in the distribution system. I think we’ll be mindful about any potential impacts on transmission needs, but I think that we’d be focused on distribution build-out for these chargers and I wouldn’t expect any near term transmission needs [indiscernible].
Travis Miller:
Okay, great. I appreciate it.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you Travis. Next question is from Paul Patterson from Glenrock. Good morning Paul.
Paul Patterson:
Good morning guys, how are you doing?
Jeffrey Kotkin:
All right, how are you?
Paul Patterson:
I’m managing. Really quickly on the Connecticut, you guys mentioned that you don’t think you’re earning your ROE and stuff, and I was just wondering, I know last year you guys obviously had challenges with the storms and stuff, but if we were to look on this level, 2021, I know you’re not giving guidance [indiscernible], but just roughly speaking, what kind of ROE or return range do you guy expect to be in for 2021 in Connecticut?
Phil Lembo:
Paul, this is Phil. Our last file we filed on the quarters in Connecticut was about 8.6%, and we’re allowed 9.25%, so it was certainly below the allowed return in the settlement that we had. We’ll be finalizing the year. I don’t expect it to change dramatically, but that was our last filed number in Connecticut.
Paul Patterson:
Does that have the storms and stuff in there, or is that sort of a normalized number?
Phil Lembo:
Well as you probably know, most of the storm costs for Isaias were deferred because there’s triggers that if you’re above $4 million in Connecticut, you defer the cost, so we’ll be disclosing there was about $228 million of deferred storm costs. Those wouldn’t affect it, so it’s not an abnormally low number because of that. In addition, as I mentioned and Jim mentioned, we had 100-plus other storms and some of those don’t trigger a deferral, so those would impact all franchise--all electric franchise ROEs.
Paul Patterson:
Okay, that’s great. That’s helpful. Then also, just on the COP transmission capex, 2021 and 2022 seem like they jumped a lot over your last forecast. I was just wondering if there’s anything to call out on that. You guys mentioned you’re not doing any large projects, really, or it’s mostly sort of nuts and bolts, it sounds like. I’m just wondering if there is anything in particular that--I mean, that seems to be one of the bigger moves in the slide deck.
Phil Lembo:
I’m not--actually, I think the projected transmission capital is decreasing at--you know, there’s some large expenditures, or you could say larger in ’21, but then those sort of decline. Is that the chart you’re looking at, Paul?
Paul Patterson:
Well, I think it’s on--when I looked at the chart, it looked to me when I was doing a comparison that from 2021, it went from 209 to 483, and for 2022 184 to 264. I can follow up later, I’m not trying to--
Phil Lembo:
Okay.
Paul Patterson:
But that’s what I--it just looked like to me like there was a--it could be timing too, or something, I don’t know. Anyway, I was just wondering if there was anything in particular. Then finally, on the offshore wind, given what we’ve seen in Texas and what have you, and I apologize for not knowing this, but I was just wondering just in terms of how these contracts work, if there was some issue with not being able to provide power, is there--would you have to go in the spot market and make it up, or do you just simply not get paid for the power that you don’t deliver? I just wanted to get a sense as to how it works since basically--what made me think about this, of course, is what we’re seeing in the Midwest and stuff.
Jim Judge:
Yes, from what I understand about Texas and what they’re struggling with, I think the problems stem from the financial structure for power generation that really doesn’t offer any incentives for power plant operators to prepare for the winter. They have an electric grid, they’re putting emphasis on cheap prices over reliable service, and as you know, we have a robust capacity market where the ISO locks in adequate supplies, maybe four or five years out. In terms of the thing we’re talking about, wind, which from what I understand the impact on the thermal plant dwarfs the wind freeze-up that they’re dealing with. I think the nuclear unit went down, but the gas plants are probably five or six times the load that was lost in wind - I think wind’s only 10% of the load in Texas.
Paul Patterson:
[Indiscernible.] I’m not suggesting that there’s some particular issue with that, I’m just wondering, though, if in terms of wind being an intermittent resource, I’m just wondering the way the contract works, if for some reason, whatever it may be, you don’t have the production that you expected, would that be something where you just simply don’t get paid if that production isn’t happening, or would you actually be short, so to speak, and have to make up the difference? My sense is it’s the former and not the latter, but I just want to make sure.
Jim Judge:
Yes, it’s the former. We get paid on a per-kilowatt basis, so if we don’t deliver, we don’t have the revenue stream coming in.
Paul Patterson:
Okay, thanks so much. I really appreciate it, guys.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
All right, thank you Paul. Next question is from Mike Weinstein from Credit Suisse. Good morning Mike.
Mike Weinstein:
Hey, good morning. One more question on offshore wind. The CEO of Total today came out and said that the IRRs on offshore wind are very competitive, the most competitive of the entire renewable industry, 2% to 3% IRRs. Is that something you guys are seeing as well in your analysis of the project opportunities for Ørsted? What do you see going forward?
Jim Judge:
Yes, clearly the competition has increased, and I think the latest evidence of that was the New York RFP that I mentioned in my comments. We continue to stay disciplined. I think people are bidding into this for multiple reasons - very small returns, but maybe some branding uplift, I think has appeal to some of the players in the business now, so as I mentioned, we’ll continue to participate in the RFPs. We will get creative about our cost structure going forward. More and more as the supply chain moves over to the U.S. from Europe, I think there are cost advantages there, so we’ll be continuing to be disciplined. Two to three percent IRR is not something that we would want to win, frankly, in an RFP. We’re still targeting that mid-teens ROE for our investments.
Mike Weinstein:
Great. For the BOEM review schedule, I think in the slide deck you said you expect it in 2021 for both Revolution and Sunrise. I think previously you had said early ’21 for Revolution, but it looks like maybe you took out the word early. Is that intentional?
Jim Judge:
Yes, I don’t think it’s intentional. I think it’s recognizing that we’re going to get more specifics on both of those projects as new leadership of BOEM and the Department of Interior settle into their roles. Clearly the Biden administration is supportive of offshore wind and accelerating the approval process, but the Department of Interior, I don’t believe the proposed secretary has been approved yet. We are encouraged by what we see as the new head of BOEM - she actually came out of the Cuomo administration and is very familiar with the offshore wind solicitations that New York has run, so I wouldn’t read much more into it other than new people in new roles. We’ll see what the schedule is.
Mike Weinstein:
Great, then for the EV and AMI dockets, is that--I think you guy are expecting some comments in March in those dockets, and also, is there any kind of interplay or are they dependent on getting this rate review docket done first, or are they completely independent?
Jim Judge:
They’re completely independent--oh, go ahead, Phil.
Phil Lembo:
Go ahead, you finish.
Jim Judge:
Yes, I think the AMI is early on in the process in term of the calendar, but the electric vehicle deployment hearings are going to take place on [indiscernible] proposals at the end of February, and we would expect a decision in late March. I think they run totally separate from the other dockets that are on the table at PURA.
Mike Weinstein:
Okay, great. Thank you very much. Thanks.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
All right, thank you Michael. That was the last question we had this morning, so thank you very much for joining us today. If you have any follow-up questions, please call or send an email and we’ll get back to you. Have a good day.
A - Jim Judge:
Thanks, stay well everybody.
A - Phil Lembo:
Thank you.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s conference. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Welcome to the Eversource Energy Q3 2020 Results Conference Call. My name is John, and I will be operator for today call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. And I will now turn the call over to Jeffrey Kotkin.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thank you, John. Good morning and thank you for joining us. I’m Jeff Kotkin, Eversource Energy’s VP for Investor Relations. During this call, we’ll be referencing slides that we posted last night on our website. And as you can see on slide one, some of the statements made during this investor call may be forward-looking as defined within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on management’s current expectations and are subject to risk and uncertainty, which may cause the actual results to differ materially from forecasts and projections. These factors are set forth in the news release issued yesterday. Additional information about the various factors that may cause actual results to differ can be found in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2019, and our Form 10-Q for the three months ended June 30, 2020. Additionally, our explanation of how and why we use certain non-GAAP measures and how those measures reconcile to GAAP results is contained within our news release and the slides we posted last night and in our most recent 10-K. Speaking today will be Phil Lembo, our Executive Vice President and CFO. Also joining us today are Joe Nolan, our Executive Vice President for Strategy, Customer and Corporate Relations; John Moreira, our Treasurer and Senior VP for Finance and Regulatory; and Jay Buth, our Controller. Now I will turn to slide two and turn over the call to Phil.
Phil Lembo:
Thank you, Jeff. Good morning, everyone. I hope everyone on the call remains healthy and that your families are safe and doing well. This morning, I will cover various [ph], review the results of the third quarter, discuss recent regulatory development, include the acquisition of the assets of Columbia Gas of Massachusetts, provide an update on recent developments around our offshore wind partnership with Ørsted. I will start with slide two, noting that recurring earnings were $1.02 per share in the third quarter of 2020, compared with recurring earnings of $0.98 per share in the third quarter of 2019. GAAP results, which include a charge of $0.01 per share relating to the recently completed acquisition of the assets of Columbia Gas of Massachusetts, total $1.01 per share in the third quarter of 2020. In the first nine months of 2020, our recurring earnings, excluding Columbia Gas acquisition cost, totaled $2.80 per share, compared with recurring earnings of $2.69 per share in the first nine months of 2019 and excluding the Northern Pass Transmission impairment charge GAAP results for September of this year were $2.76 cents per share. Turnings our business segments, our electric trans -- distribution segment earned $0.60 per share in the third quarter of 2020, compared with earnings of $0.61 per share in the third quarter of 2019. The lower earnings were results of both higher storm restoration costs and property tax expense, as well as the impact of shared dilution. Our electric transmission segment earned $0.36 per share in the third quarter of 2020, compared with recurring earnings of $0.33 per share in the third quarter of 2019. Improved results were driven by the continued investment and reliability in our transmission facilities, partially offset by share dilution. Our natural gas distribution segment lost $0.04 per share in the third quarter of 2020, compared with a loss of $0.05 per share in the third quarter of last year. Improved results were due to higher revenues. I should note that because we didn’t close on our acquisition of Columbia Gas of Massachusetts assets until October 9th, the transaction had no impact on this -- the gas segment -- this segment during the quarter. Each quarter this year, we booked acquisition related costs at the parent and have segregated them for increased transparency. Beginning in the fourth quarter of this year, ongoing results of our new gas franchise, which is named Eversource Gas Company of Massachusetts will be reflected in the natural gas segment. Integration related costs, however, will continue to be recorded separately as a parent and excluded from our recurring GAAP earnings. Our water distribution segments earned $0.07 per share in the third quarter of 2020, compared with earnings of $0.06 per share in the third quarter of 2019. Improved results were due to $3.5 million after tax gain on the sale of our Hingham, Massachusetts area facilities to the town. Eversource parent earned $0.03 per share in the third quarter of 2020, excluding the Columbia Gas of Massachusetts asset acquisition costs equal to our earnings in the third quarter of last year. As you probably noticed in our earnings release and can see on slide three, we are reaffirming our 2020 earnings per share guidance of $3.6 to $3.70 cents and that is excluding the non-recurring costs related to the purchase of Columbia Gas of Massachusetts assets. We are also reaffirming our long-term EPS growth rate of 5% to 7% from our core regulated business through the year 2024. We continue to be to expect to be somewhere around the middle of that range, largely due to the investments we need to make on behalf of our customers as we’ve outlined for you earlier in the year. As a reminder, while we fully expect the Columbia gas assets to be accretive to our earnings per share, starting immediately in 2021, we have not yet updated our long-term financial outlook to reflect the acquisition of Columbia Gas assets in our capital or CapEx and our earnings growth. In addition, as we’ve disclosed previously, earnings from offshore wind would be incremental to our core business growth. We will provide a comprehensive update of our regulated capital investment forecasts, adding in Eversource Gas Company in Massachusetts projections and provide an update of our offshore wind partnership during our year end call in late February. For the third quarter results, I’ll turn to slide four, and our experience restoring power after Tropical Storm Isaias ravaged Connecticut on October 4th. We serve 149 cities and towns in Connecticut and every one of these communities suffered damage from Isaias, much of it catastrophic. As you can see on the slide, we had nearly 22,000 damage locations that we had to address and brought in an army of electric restoration and tree crews to restore power, all the while working on the restoration in a pandemic setting. The restoration process lasted nine days, meaning we completed our work one day to two days faster than we had in the last two tropical storms that hit Connecticut, even though we had 30% to 35% more damage location. And most importantly, we completed that work safely with no serious electrical contact and no COVID exposure among the enormous workforce we brought to Connecticut, just a tremendous effort by all of our employees from across all parts of Eversource. At this time, we estimate that deferred cost across all three states will total more than $275 million, but the vast majority of that’s incurred in Connecticut. That figure will be adjusted as the actual invoices are received. We’re still actively pursuing invoices from hundreds of vendors that assisted us during the statewide restoration effort. Where we were setting new poles or hanging miles of new wires or replacing hundreds of transformers, these related cost to be capitalized. The ultimate recovery of storm cost and the evaluation of performance in safely and expeditiously restoring power to our customers is pending an ongoing review by the Connecticut Public Utilities Regulatory Authority or PURA. That review is scheduled to be completed in late April of 2021. Speaking on our regulated business, I’ll turn to slide five and a review of this year’s distribution rate reviews. This past Friday, the Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities issued its decision in the NSTAR Gas Rate Review that we filed last year. It supports our continued investment in the NSTAR Gas system on behalf of our 300,000 customers. The decision allows NSTAR Gas to increase distribution revenues by $23 million on an annualized basis. The DPU approved an ROE of 9.9% and a capital structure with 54.77% equity. It also permits us to implement performance based ratemaking for a 10-year term. That would sound operating performance by NSTAR Gas will target annual base rate increases of inflation plus 1.03%. This is an earning sharing mechanism that would return 75% of the benefit to customers should we see the ROI of 10.9% and sharing mechanism on the downside if our ROE falls below 8.4%. And also exciting is the decision also approves our first ever geothermal pilot program. Our other long standing rate proceeding involves Public Service of New Hampshire. In New Hampshire last month, we and all the parties to the PSNH rate case filed a proposed settlement in the rate review that has been pending for nearly a year and a half. You can see from the slide, we settled on a $45 million annualized rate increase that includes a 9.3% return on equity and a 54.4% equity layer. Should regulators approve the settlement the permanent increase would take effect in January 1, 2021. You may recall that the New Hampshire Public Utility Commission allowed us to implement a temporary rate increase of approximately $28 million back in July 1, 2019. The final approval rates would be retroactive back to that date for 18 months. We would recover that in a true-up over the course of the year 2021. We can settle -- consider the settlement to be a constructive outcome to PSMH’s first general increase in about a decade and have said the New Hampshire PUC to approve the settlement before the end of November. From the rate review -- reviews, I’ll turn to slide six and our recently completed acquisition of the assets of Columbia Gas of Massachusetts for $1.1 billion of cash, excluding working capital adjustments. Most of these assets were assigned to Eversource Gas Company in Massachusetts, a new subsidiary, I mentioned, that we formed in May of 2020. As you can see on the slide, much of Eversource Gas’ service territory is adjacent to NSTAR gas or Yankee Gas service territories. Additionally, NSTAR Electric already provides electric service to about 20 of the communities that Eversource Gas service with natural gas. As a result, we expect to realize operational benefits for our newest 330,000 natural gas customers in the communities where they live. To finance the transaction, we sold approximately $500 million of equity in June and we finance the debt portion of the transaction in August. And again, we are very confident that this transaction will be accretive to our earnings per share in 2021 and incrementally accretive in the years ahead. A critical factor in ensuring that this transaction brings benefits to all stakeholders is an eight-year rate plan that we negotiated with the Massachusetts Attorney General and other key parties prior to our filing with the Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities. The key elements of that plan are listed on slide seven. It allows us to make the necessary investments in our Eversource Gas of mass system and reflect those investments and rates in a reasonably timely manner. We’re thankful that the DPU approved the settlement and the acquisition very quickly. Now that we have the keys to the property and a long-term plan in place, we are focused on providing our new Eversource Gas customers with the same high level of service that we provide our other 550,000 natural gas distribution company customers that we have in Massachusetts and Connecticut. As I noted earlier, we plan to integrate our Eversource Gas of Massachusetts into our updated five-year projections that we will provide you in February. We continue to project approximately $3 billion of regulated company capital investments this year. Despite the challenges posed by the pandemic and the need to take crews off of capital projects for a significant part of August to deal with the aftermath of Tropical Storm Isaias. Through September, our capital investments totaled approximately $2.2 billion. That’s approximately the same level as this time last year in 2019. We made considerable progress on our transmission capital program in the third quarter, putting several projects into service at or below budget. These benefits of lower costs will flow through to the New England’s electric customers. From the regulated business -- I will turn to offshore wind partnership with Ørsted on slide eight. We’ve had a few developments since July 31st earnings call. The most significant development was that in August, The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management posted a complete review scheduled for our 130-megawatt South Fork project on Long Island. The schedule culminates in a decision on a construction and operations permit or COP as it’s known in mid-January of 2022. We’re also making progress on the other permits. In September, we filed a settlement proposal with the New York Department of Public Service to resolve much of the stakeholder feedback related to the construction, operations and maintenance of the project that lies within New York jurisdiction. In October, several of New York State agencies signaled their support for this proposal by signing on to the agreement. Restructured in agreement on host community payments and the necessary real estate rights with the town of East Hampton, where the offshore cable was land and will be connected to the Long Island grid. New York Public Service Commission citing here in the South Fork is scheduled to commence the first week of December. We continue to expect the state signing process to be completed in 2021 before BOEM issues the COP. Based on that schedule, we now expect the project to enter service in the fourth quarter of 2023. This is consistent with the expectations we disclosed during our May and July earnings calls, while we were still waiting for the review schedule. Turned into our other projects. You recall that we filed our BOEM application for revolution wind in March. We expect BOEM to establish a review schedule for that project in the first quarter of 2021. We do not expect to provide an updated in service date for this project until the schedule is issued. But at this point, it is unlikely that the project delivers service by the end of 2023. Also, we filed our Sunrise Wind application with BOEM on September 1st, and expect BOEM to establish a review schedule for the project next year. Once we receive that review schedule, we’ll be able to better estimate a more up to date in service schedule. But again, at this time, it would seem that the end of ‘24 in service is not likely. We’re very optimistic about our Australian business and expect to have many opportunities over the coming months and years to expand our offshore wind partnership beyond the 1,714 megawatts currently under contract. As we mentioned before, we have enough lease capacity can construct at least 4000 megawatts on the 550 square miles of ocean tracks that we have under long-term lease off the Southeast Coast of Massachusetts. To this point, on October 20th, we submitted a number of alternative bids into the second New York Offshore Wind RFP where the state is looking for between 1,000 megawatts and 2,500 megawatts. New York State officials have indicated that they expect to announce the winner -- winners before the end of the year. Our Sunrise project, as a reminder, one of the largest portion of New York’s first RFP last year, 880 megawatts. Additionally, just last week, Rhode Island Governor Gina Raimondo announced that first date will target early next year for issuing an RFP the 600 megawatts of additional offshore wind. As you know, the majority of our revolution wind capacity of 400 megawatts will be sold to Rhode Island with the balance going to Connecticut. Thank you very much for joining us this morning and I’ll turn the call back over to Jeff.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thanks, Phil. And I’ll turn the call back to John just to remind you how to enter questions in the Q&A queue.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions]
Jeff Kotkin:
Thank you, John. Our first question this morning is from Shahriar from Guggenheim. Good morning, Shahriar.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Good morning, Jeff. Good morning, Phil.
Phil Lembo:
Good morning, Shahriar.
Shahriar Pourreza:
So a couple questions here. Just some -- Phil some of your language around sort of the growth rate, obviously, which still excludes Columbia Gas and offshore wind. Obviously, these are very creative and you’re already conservatively kind of well within your band. So should we sort of be thinking about these incremental items as potentially reducing your growth rate to maybe 6% to 8% or something that will hit you to the top end and then sort of extended that runway with your current trajectory? I mean, the reason why I ask is, 6% to 8% seems to be sort of that new top quartile bucket in our space, where 5% to 7% becoming a little bit more typical. So curious how you’re sort of thinking about this, do you see value to be taught to be in the top quartile or you don’t think you need a rewarded for it? So, curious on that as we think about you are laying into plan?
Phil Lembo:
Sure. Shahriar, thanks for the question and I hope you are doing well.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Yeah.
Phil Lembo:
Certainly, the addition of Columbia Gas and will be additive to our existing forecast. So we’re working through all the details of that. So we’re able to provide you with a full update in February, but we expect to get significant benefit from that franchise. And let me say, we also expect as those offshore wind projects come online, it also be additive. To remind folks, I know I said it, but -- and you gave the 5% to 7% growth rate is from the existing core business, which doesn’t include Columbia assets. It also doesn’t include grid modernization activities that are currently pending in Connecticut and New Hampshire or our AMI that could be a potential to move forward relatively soon in Massachusetts in terms of taking a look at that by the regulator. So I see that we have a number of levers to grow and grow at an even higher rate than we had expected before.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Got it. That’s helpful. And then also just last for me is, can you just maybe talk a little bit about your expectations for the legislation in Connecticut? I mean, the legislation that passed was more constructive than the draft legislation. But obviously, some disappointment with the refunds and penalties offset by the potential upside from like PBRs. So sort of how are you guys thinking about this entitlement?
Phil Lembo:
Sure. The energy legislation, we have said, consistently that PBR is a formula and a template that we think is effective. We have PBR structures in other states and we think that having a robust discussion on PBR in Connecticut makes a lot of sense. So we’re very, very supportive of that provision. Really the energy legislation directed PURA to evaluate that and open a docket by the middle of next year. So June of 2021 and it authorizes PURA to establish storm standards and potential penalties, as you mentioned. There is an increased potential of penalties. Currently, those penalties are 2.5% of our distribution revenues in Connecticut and so that goes up to 4%. So, it also just PURA have some additional time to review cases, so which is also something that seems to be appropriate. So the legislation, as you indicated, is out there, and PURA is working through the details of it and we expect to be working through that in a constructive way with them over the next several months.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Got it. Terrific. That’s all I had today. Thanks, guys.
Jeff Kotkin:
All right. Thanks, Shahriar.
Phil Lembo:
Thanks.
Jeff Kotkin:
Our next question is from Steve Fleishman from Wolfe. Good morning, Steve.
Steve Fleishman:
Good morning. Folks, can you hear me?
Phil Lembo:
Yes, Steve. I can.
Steve Fleishman:
Yeah. Great. So just question on the delays in your offshore wind projects, could you maybe talk to, I know, we don’t know the exact timing. But how should we think about the impact on the economics of those projects from delay or puts and takes, and is it hurting the economics of the projects you already have signed up to?
Phil Lembo:
Yeah. Thanks for the question, Steve and I hope you and your families are doing well. I guess, Steve, if we go to the puts and takes piece. I don’t think that folks should automatically think that schedule changes result in ups or downs. There’s some benefits or that people may not consider in that. So, certainly, if you are looking at adjusted schedules, you might be able to adjust your installation vessel optimization better. Turban sizes themselves are getting larger. So you could move to larger turban sizes, if projects are due at a later time period versus an earlier time period. And certainly, the cost of supply chain and availability of materials and supply chain is always getting better. So I’d say that, there’s opportunities for improved cost economics, as you move into a schedule that, you may not think of and I think people generally think of projects as get delay. It’s a cost increase. But that -- there are other elements that works here on the offshore wind business that offset that.
Steve Fleishman:
How about any negatives is -- how about like you lose, you’re going to lose any tax credits or anything else?
Phil Lembo:
Yeah. Certainly.
Steve Fleishman:
Like just time value.
Phil Lembo:
Yeah. In terms of the schedules we’re looking at, we don’t expect to have any impact on our tax assumptions. But certainly significant delays, delays could have impacts on your tax assumptions, delays could also have impacts on contracts that you have with counterparties. But in our specific case, so that’s the general case, in our specific case, we’re confident that we have the ability to work within both of those, the tax area and the contract area in an effective way with where we see the schedules going in the future.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. Thank you.
Phil Lembo:
Thanks, Steve.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thank you. Our next question is from Angie from Seaport Global. Good morning, Angie.
Angie Storozynski:
Good morning. I have a question about Massachusetts. You guys have this very constructive decision for INSTAR Gas. But the state is clearly looking at the future of gas LDC. And so how do you guys see it, especially in light of the fact that you just acquired an additional gas utility in Massachusetts?
Phil Lembo:
Good morning, Angie, and thank you for your question, and hope you’re doing well. The way that I would position it or the way that I think people should think about it is that, there’s nobody, first of all, who’s more aggressive in terms of looking at clean energy strategies and carbon reduction and Eversource, in terms of having a carbon neutral goal by 2030. We have worked effectively with all parties in all states, but in Massachusetts, where the Attorney General and others want to take a look at sort of the future or the outlook in terms of the gas business. We’ve been working with these intervening parties for many years and we’ll continue to work with them on what we think an appropriate strategy is there. So this is a long-term outlook in terms of the -- that the states wants to have aggressive clean energy and carbon reduction targets. We are fully supportive of that and we look forward to working with all the parties there. But we don’t see it as a threat to the gas distribution business in the region at all.
Angie Storozynski:
Okay. And in Connecticut, this recent back and forth between you guys and PURA about the extension of the lack of basically disconnections on the back of COVID, I mean, it sounds a bit concerning that PUA is pushing back so strong that they don’t need to sign off on that extension. I mean, I would assume that it’s an actual practice, normal practice for a regulated utility to seek recovery of these under recovered revenues. Can you give us a sense how you see it in Connecticut, given the related legislative changes and also some deterioration and then negative relationships in the state?
Phil Lembo:
Yes. So we are not doing a shut off across all -- any of our franchises at this point, and specifically, we’re working with customers, we’re working with fuel agencies, assistance agencies on an approach here that best for customers. We’ve also engaged with PURA, as you mentioned, and other government officials on this issue. So, I’m confident that we’ll get to a good place here. Nobody wants to burden customers with any more than we’re already all of us are burdened with in terms of the economic conditions and COVID, et cetera. So we’re working through the issue. We are working with customers, as I say, in some of the assistance agencies and I’m sure we’ll get to a good outcome. Yeah.
Angie Storozynski:
Very good. Thank you.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thank you, Angie. Next question is from Julien from Bank of America. Good morning, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey. Good morning, team. Thanks for the time. I hope all of you doing well and safe families as well. Perhaps just to pick up off of or perhaps clarify if I can some of the last rounds of questions. When you talk about the 4Q roll forward, can you give me roll into 2025, and then more specifically, how do you think about including or excluding offshore wind in light of the uncertainties described? Should we expect that offshore wind should continue to be at least for those projects where there’s an undetermined data continue to be excluded there?
Phil Lembo:
Julien, thanks for your question and your comments, and I hope you and your family are doing well, too. Just to clarify, we will -- our history has been to add another year into the outlook of 2025 would be that year since our forecast goes through the 2024 time period, so that is something that you should expect to see. And really our view on kind of look at offshore wind, it doesn’t change by any of the schedule items we talked about today or if we’ve looked at it as showing the core business as the driver and the foundational element of the growth rate and then to show that wind is additive to that in what way. So that would be the intense going forward. I think that what I’ve been asked this question before. The answer is was and still is. As more years of wind come in to the actual results of that particular year then to me it makes more sense to roll it all together. But at this age, the expectation, especially in this upcoming February update would be to have the core business, extend that through 2025 and then show offshore wind in addition to that.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Okay. And if you don’t mind elaborating a little bit further, I know that there’s a certain degree of uncertainty on exactly the permitting schedule that inhibits your ability to say, when these projects going to reach in service. Can you least try to put some more parameters around what each of these pieces of the process to take such that there’s like a window, if you will, it may be too early?
Phil Lembo:
Yeah. So in terms of -- there is people have realized out there and we’ve been asked questions. I think you’ve asked us the questions in terms of with delays on Vineyard Wind and other things. There’s been some delays in terms of BOEM notice of intent to prepare their environmental impact statement. And frankly, we would have expected in our original schedules that some of these analyze it, you know, to prepare the environmental impact statement would be out by now. So these are expected, I believe, the planned schedule for reviewing and releasing these is underway. So I wouldn’t expect significant change in the schedule. But at this stage, it would be prudent to wait to see the schedule that comes out on BOEM before we commit to a final in services. But I wouldn’t expect it to be significant.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. Excellent. All right. I’ll pass it from there. Thank you so much.
Phil Lembo:
Yeah. Okay.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thanks, Julien. Next question is from Durgesh from Evercore. Good morning. Durgesh.
Durgesh Chopra:
Hey. Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my question. Just following up on the offshore wind here, what to expect, there is this EIS decision, I suppose that is going to be out OUS state and rather this month or early December. What to expect there and then how does that impact your future project timelines?
Phil Lembo:
Yeah. These notices of intent, they contain a plan schedule that in analyze, they have contained BOEMs planned schedule for reviewing each of the costs. So that would be an important piece of information to have available. So that’s really what’s included in that is a plan schedule for reviewing the cost that comes out with the notice of intent.
Durgesh Chopra:
Great. So I guess maybe I’m talking about the environmental impact statement. Isn’t there an environmental impact statement that BOEM is supposed to sort of put out here in the next few weeks?
Jeff Kotkin:
You’re talking about the one for Vineyard, right?
Durgesh Chopra:
Yes.
Phil Lembo:
Oh! Okay. Yeah. I’m not. I apologize. You probably have to ask Vineyard about that.
Durgesh Chopra:
Okay. But that doesn’t have a read through for you or you’re also in project? I guess that’s sort of what my question was?
Phil Lembo:
Well, certainly, all of the developers off the coast that we’ve been going through this huge cumulative impact study and looking at spacing of wind turbines and we came up with one nautical mile spacing. So certainly, they could be components that come out in any decision for Vineyard wind that you’d have to take a look at to see if it has any impacts to other developers including us. But in terms of what might be in that or the exact timing. I think Vineyard might have a better perspective of that.
Durgesh Chopra:
Okay. Perfect. That’s all I had guys. Thank you so much.
Jeff Kotkin:
All right.
Phil Lembo:
Thank you.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thanks, Durgesh. Next question is from Jeremy from JP Morgan. Good morning, Jeremy.
Jeremy Tonet:
Good morning. Thanks for having me. Just want to start off with what are the benefits of looping Con Ed into the proposed Sunrise to or Sunrise Wind to RFP here. Eversource has the experience of building transmission. I am curious what additional competitive advantages Con Ed provide to you to this specific project? Can you provide details on potential ownership interests for each entity? And does ownership interest change once construction is complete and the project is in service?
Phil Lembo:
Thanks for the question Jeremy. Hope you are doing well. I guess, I would say, on the first part of the question sort of obviously Con Ed has local knowledge of New York in their service territory in the network and the operation of the transmission and delivery system that are valuable to any party if you’re operating in New York. So I’d say, they bring up knowledge and skill set of the area that certainly we don’t have as in-depth of knowledge as they would. So certain skill sets there that the local player would bring. So in terms of what the components of a relationship would be? Those things are all to be discussed as we move through, but it’s certainly beneficial I think to the project and have somebody with Con Ed skill sets involved.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. And as far as potential ownership interest, is there any kind of thoughts on how that could develop?
Phil Lembo:
Not at this time. No.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. And then, will the delay in offshore wind permitting have any impact on countenancing plans? Is it fair to assume the $700 million of equity in your current five-year plan moves to the back end here? And how is offshore wind CapEx spending track to-date versus the $300 million to $400 million range that you expected?
Phil Lembo:
We haven’t disclosed a range that we’ve expected. We’ve talked about how much we expected to spend this year -- just for the year 2020. And it’s tracking somewhat close that, I’d say, it’s probably a little bit under what we expected it at this time. In terms of the financing, you’re right, that we announced a year ago the $2 billion of equity need that would support the forecast and we issued 1.3 of that, so, the $700 million remaining that, and I would say, the same thing, as I’ve said all along is, we’d be opportunistic and consider what our capital forecasts are and what the market conditions are, as we look to fulfill the rest of that offering that we discussed.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. That’s helpful. I’ll leave it there. Thank you.
Phil Lembo:
Thank you.
Jeff Kotkin:
All right. Thanks, Jeremy. Next question is from Paul Patterson from Glenrock Associates. Good morning, Paul.
Paul Patterson:
Good morning, guys.
Phil Lembo:
Good morning, Paul.
Paul Patterson:
I just want to follow-up on the draft decision in Connecticut on Monday, and what your thoughts were on it -- any -- if it were in fact to become a final order? What the potential impact could be?
Phil Lembo:
Are you talking about the draft information on rates or what, can you be more specific?
Paul Patterson:
Sure. There was a draft decision on Monday in the PURA case associated with the rates, right? The rate review that was reversed that proceeding, right, I can tell you the specific name…
Phil Lembo:
No. That’s okay. I just wanted to be specific as somebody else mentioned. There has been a number of different…
Paul Patterson:
Yeah. Make sure well…
Phil Lembo:
Yeah. So the -- so as you recall the PURA suspended the rates that we had implemented over the summer, both we and UI to take an additional look like this is what you’re referring to. So we did receive the draft order. And really, it’s kind of hot off the press, we’re currently evaluating that and we’re going to see what comments we might have and comments on the draft to do. I think it’s the 12th of November. So we have some time to flush out anything. But it’s consistent with on first blush, I’d say, it’s consistent with PURA’s desire they have some rate changes, move instead of implementing rates at peak times of usage maybe such as July implement them on, change the timing of it to implement it, maybe enough shoulder month, like May or something and move to annual reconciliations as opposed to semi-annual. So this would -- it is delay, this could have effect at least to the cash flow item and it could have an impact on our deferrals that we have in place there. But I think it generally is consistent with the desire as we said this to move off of these peak periods for making rate changes to shoulder periods and see what we’ve built in here. But we’re actively reviewing that last night and today and we will be -- and it has any comments that we’ll have with you as I said on the 12th.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. There was one part of it that would reduce the carrying charges from the -- from whack to a prime rate on a variety of reconciliation mechanisms. Is there any -- do we have any I know this is off the press and everything. But do we have any sort of forecasts as to what the -- those reconciliation mechanisms like how much capital might be tied up in those?
Phil Lembo:
No. That you did -- that is a point to the carrying costs at prime, which is consistent in some other jurisdictions, I guess. So, no, that -- it’s not a significant item, but it’s certainly one that PURA has put out there in the draft is to recover the deferred balances with a prime rate versus the whack.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. And then just we don’t know who the President is going to be it seems. But if there was a change in administration, do you think that could have or not have maybe a significant impact on the OEM permitting process with respect to offer win?
Phil Lembo:
The permitting process, I mean, when we meet with BOEM, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, that people are active. We’re actively working. We are actively having Zoom meetings or teams calls or whatever -- the video capabilities that we’re using. So we’re actively working at and I can assure you that the people in the agencies are working full speed, regardless of, who is the President or what the election results are. But certainly it would be good to have the results of the election. I think we’ve all as a country, that the election results are something that we’ve all targeted out there. And wherever you fall on the political spectrum is going to have certainty as opposed to uncertainty. So I think we’re all looking forward to what the final outcome is there, so we can move forward.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. But just so for my clarity, the process at the BOEM is pretty much the agency that of the bureaucratic process is going on, really you don’t see a significant change one way or the other regardless of the outcome of the Presidential election, is that the right understanding there?
Phil Lembo:
Yeah. I’d say that the work at the agencies is going on. There -- we’ve been meeting regularly, going through questions. We’re working through various state agencies. So, no, I say that the work is continuing at the -- as you say, the bureaucratic level.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. Awesome. Thanks so much.
Phil Lembo:
You’re welcome.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thanks, Paul. Next question is from Mike Weinstein from Credit Suisse. Good morning, Mike.
Mike Weinstein:
Hey. Good morning. Good morning, Phil.
Phil Lembo:
Good morning, Mike. How are you?
Mike Weinstein:
Hi. Good, I hope you’re doing well. Hey. Maybe you could just give a quick two second update on what you think the outcome at FERC for transmission ROEs considering if the election outcome has any effect on any of this accelerating an outcome?
Phil Lembo:
Well, Mike, that’s a very big crystal ball that you’re asking. So, but again, thanks and I hope you’re doing well. Thanks for your question. I wish I had a better answer than to say that, it’s working its way through. We don’t really have a specific clarity as to when FERC might come out with something on the New England before pending New England cases. And certainly impact of the election one way or the other. What that could have in terms of commissioners and that type of thing. So, the only thing I know for certain is we’re looking at our 10.57 rate, reserving to that level and 11.74 cap and we’ll just have to wait and see what the final outcome we’ll look at. But I don’t really have any answer. I know in years past when I tried to think this one was coming or it was going a certain way, and it really hasn’t materialized. So I think it’s best to wait for the final outcome at this point [inaudible].
Mike Weinstein:
Right. And bigger crystal ball question would be, I know that Hydro-Québec has a pretty big long-term construction plan for hydro generation up there. And I know that their long-term plans included lots and lots of Northern Pass type transmission lines. Do you think there’s ever a time at some point where there might be another whack or another go at transmission at some point, big transmission project?
Phil Lembo:
I think a lot of that is dependent upon what the states want to get, right? So these are going to be processes now that is driven by…
Mike Weinstein:
Yeah.
Phil Lembo:
… state’s clean energy policies and the state’s desire to have either offshore wind or solar or hydro in the mix. So there are -- certainly, there’s a lot of activity in the states now. I mean, the states in our area all want aggressive carbon reduction targets. So it wouldn’t be out of the question to see if state want to contract for more of that. But there’s nothing planned on our end, there’s nothing that I see at this stage on the state’s agenda that would say that. But when you say that word ever, that’s a long time.
Mike Weinstein:
Right. So it seems like the offshore wind program really is kind of planted that at least for the time being?
Phil Lembo:
Yeah. I’d say that a good way of looking at it.
Mike Weinstein:
Okay. Great. Thank you very much.
Phil Lembo:
Okay, Mike.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thanks, Mike. Our next question is from Insoo Kim from Goldman Sachs. Good morning, Insoo.
Insoo Kim:
Hey. Good morning, guys. My only question is and apologies if I missed this. But could you give just an update on the Connecticut grid mod filings and any updates on expected decisions from the commission and timing of investments, et cetera?
Phil Lembo:
Thanks for your questions and I hope you and your families are doing well. You didn’t specify -- I mentioned, in terms of what items could be additive to our 5% to 7% core business growth rate. I alluded to a grid mod in Connecticut or New Hampshire or potentially additional AMI dockets in Massachusetts. But there’s really been no change there. We all the parties filed comments and plans back in July. And certainly you can understand there has been a lot going on. And I think I may have said Isaias was in October, but we all know that Isaias was in August. So since August, there has been a lot of focus on storms. We’ve done a lot of dockets. And somebody else mentioned we have dockets going on in terms of March volumes and whatnot. So the expectation was there is going to be another sort of go round, another process in Connecticut towards the end of the year. I really haven’t seen anything that would indicate a specific schedule on that. So I guess our best guess is still, it’s still in the pipeline and you may see more activity on grid line there in Connecticut as we move over the next several months. But in terms of it being our forecast. I want to be clear that there is currently no zero. There’s no grid mod spending in our capital forecasts for any grid mod programs that haven’t been approved, like in Connecticut or New Hampshire. So once they are approved and once we see what our role would be in them and once we see what that looks like, then we have more confidence in putting in them in the plan. So that could be something we have information on by the time we get to the February update. So we’ll have to stay tuned on that.
Insoo Kim:
It makes sense that’s all I had. Thank you guys and stay safe.
Phil Lembo:
Thanks.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thanks, Insoo. Next question is from David Arcaro from Morgan Stanley. Good morning, David.
David Arcaro:
Good morning. Hi, Jeff. Hi, Phil. Thanks so much for taking my question.
Phil Lembo:
Thanks Dave.
David Arcaro:
I had a quick follow-up on offshore wind, in light of some of the recent delays. I was wondering if that changes how you’re strategizing around other bids that you’re putting into future RFPs, like baking in more contingency. Anything that might give a greater level of comfort around the economics of future projects that you might win?
Phil Lembo:
Thank you, Dave, for your comment, and I hope you and your families are doing well. Certainly, every piece of information that you get and this isn’t just offshore wind, this is on all our business. But I’ll focus on offshore wind, since that’s the question. Every month that goes by every quarter that goes by, we gain more insight and information about construction, about rates, about lots of factors and all of those things are factored into subsequent bids. So the information that we have available to us, as we’re moving into a bid, recent bid in New York is different than we had from bids that we made in Rhode Island or Connecticut or Massachusetts. So every data point is important to us and we factor that into the next bid. So I’d say that, absolutely that schedules and how you make it through the sighting process and all of that informs subsequent bids. And so I can assure you that all those things get up to the minute attention before we bid go there.
David Arcaro:
Okay. Got it. That’s helpful. And I just wanted to touch on just O&M costs in the O&M budget. Could you remind us how you see that trajectory just for the overall business going forward? You’ve been -- you’ve got a great track record of controlling O&M. So what are the key levers in your tool belt so that you would focus on going forward for managing O&M?
Phil Lembo:
So there is -- we’ve got people process and technology, right, so all those things are our levers to help, our capital programs, as well as our operating programs. So we continue to implement systems and technologies that improved processes that makes it more efficient and effective workforce. So we have still a robust, I’d say, series of technology improvements. If you -- I’ll start out by just setting the pace, in the guidance we gave, we said that, we expected O&M cost to be down this year and then just for the forecast period kind of flat going forward. So how we able to do that is by some of these technology changes and we’ve been implementing more productivity management tools and tools for our individual line workers and gas fitters, and in the field to get field work to update their work, that we can then take that and automatically update drawings and files, we don’t need, to hand it off to somebody. So there’s still these productivity, technology changes that are happening, some winning last year, some going in this year and more plan for next. So that will be, I’d say the lever, the underpinning for us to have the ability to continue to improve processes and take unneeded costs out of the business.
David Arcaro:
Okay. Great. That’s helpful. Thanks so much for the call.
Phil Lembo:
You’re welcome.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thank you, David. Next question is from Travis Miller from Morningstar. Good morning, Travis.
Travis Miller:
Good morning. Thank you.
Phil Lembo:
Hey, Travis.
Travis Miller:
Quick clarification on the storm cost, the $275 million number, if I heard you correctly, how much did you expense in the quarter and how much was either deferred or capitalized or it will be pending at the regulatory filing that you mentioned?
Phil Lembo:
Sure. That amount that you repeated with a deferred that’s how much of a storm cost that we deferred in both Tropical Storm Isaias and that was across all states, but primarily in Connecticut. So that’s our deferral. That would be once the storm gets to a certain level, it triggers a deferral. So we -- that all is deferred storm cost right now. In terms of, there are other storms. Certainly we had an active quarter for storms in general. But there are other storms other than Isaias that did impact the quarter. I mean, our storm cost were up about $10 million for quarter that went through our O&M. For the quarter, it’s at that level and then the $274 or $275, you mentioned is deferred across the system.
Travis Miller:
Okay. Great. That’s very helpful. Thank you. And then quick follow up to the discussion on the Connecticut legislation. And there is some language in there, as I understood, it’s about the General Assembly having some review power there, what’s your thought in terms of the scope of what the General Assembly separate from PURA could do in terms of taking back some earnings or rate changes stuff like that, separate from what is going on in the PURA?
Phil Lembo:
Well, certainly, the General Assembly can enact legislation that it feels is appropriate in any matter. So I do think specifically to the energy legislation that was enacted recently in Connecticut, that most, things all were, for the most part moved to PUA. And so the regulator, so the -- I guess I look at as the legislation would provide the intent, the framework, the direction and then PURA is the one who’s going to be implementing. They’re going to be the ones who evaluate the performance based rates. They’ll be the ones who initiate a storm, standards and things like that, and look at, should they be penalties or should there be include penalties and things like that. So I think that effectively the General Assembly can certainly enact any and all legislation, it feels it should and in the way that this legislation seems to have turned out was that then the implementation of that legislation is in the hands of PURA.
Travis Miller:
Okay. So the potential for any other risk for any kind of call backs would likely go through PURA instead of going through the General Assembly based on that Connecticut legislation that you talked about, right?
Phil Lembo:
Yeah. As I said, PURA the dockets are active in -- will be active over, there’s certain time, dates that the legislation has given PURA. So I would expect that PURA will have the pen on this, but again, as I say, what legislation can always be enacted in any area.
Travis Miller:
Yeah. No. Okay. Great. I appreciate.
Jeff Kotkin:
All right.
Phil Lembo:
Thanks.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thank you, Travis. Next question is from Andrew Weisel from Scotia. Good morning, Andrew.
Andrew Weisel:
Hey. Good morning. Thanks for squeezing me in. First question is, with the two rate cases now completed? Can you remind us which subsidiaries might be next to file general rate cases? We have plenty of regulatory items, of course, with grid mod and other initiatives, but for general rate cases?
Phil Lembo:
Well, according to the requirements in Connecticut, Connecticut could be an area that is required to file by the existing framework that’s there. And that would be something that would be sort of a next year sort of event. But other than that, we’re pretty much out of the regulatory arena.
Andrew Weisel:
Okay. Great. Then on offshore wind, can you just, sorry, can you share your latest thinking on how big you’re willing to let that business get? You talked a lot about the opportunities that you’re pursuing beyond the three existing projects? Any thinking as far as from an earnings mix perspective, if there’s a limitation or will you plan to just bid, bid, bid and get as many projects as your leases will support?
Phil Lembo:
Well, I want to be clear on this, because I think it’s a very important point that bid, bid, bid isn’t strategy. Our strategy is to have a financial discipline about growing that business in a way that provides appropriate levels of returns that benefit our shareholders. So just by winning a bid doesn’t do it. It has to be, we have to and we continue to maintain financial discipline in terms of the amount that we bid, and the returns that we’re looking for. So as long as the returns are at an appropriate levels, but -- for that business, it makes sense to make the bid win the bid and expand the business there. The -- what we’ve said is, we -- are tracks what we own off the coast of what we have access to in terms of the lease areas, we could do about 4,000, at least 4,000 megawatts of offshore wind. So there’s kind of a -- that’s the maximum capability that we have. So it’s not an infinite growth type of thing and we had indicated that when leases were available, that are not in our region that we were not interested in them. So leases in our region, like, the ones we’re involved in are good, but other lease areas, that’s not for us in other parts of the Mid-Atlantic, et cetera. So it’s a -- we’re constrained by the lease area and we’re guided by the financial discipline to on our bids and our return.
Andrew Weisel:
Got it. That’s really helpful. I guess I should have said bid, bid, bid responsibly.
Phil Lembo:
Okay. Yeah. Yeah.
Andrew Weisel:
That’s -- thanks a lot guys.
Phil Lembo:
Thanks. And I hope you stay well Andrew. Thanks.
Jeff Kotkin:
All right. Andrew, thank you very much. That sort of wraps up today. If you have any follow up questions, please give us a call or send us an email and we look forward to speaking and seeing many of you during the virtual EEI conference next week.
Operator:
And thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today’s conference. Thank you for participating and you may now disconnect.
Phil Lembo:
Thank you.
Jeff Kotkin:
All right.
Operator:
Welcome to the Eversource Energy Second Quarter 2020 Results Conference Call. My name is Vanessa, and I will be your operator for today. [Operator Instructions]. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Jeffrey Kotkin. Sir, you may begin.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you, Vanessa. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. I'm Jeff Kotkin, Eversource Energy's VP for Investor Relations. During this call, we'll be referencing slides that we posted last night on our website. And as you can see on Slide 1, some of the statements made during this investor call may be forward-looking as defined within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risk and uncertainty, which may cause the actual results to differ materially from forecasts and projections. These factors are set forth in the news release issued yesterday. Additional information about the various factors that may cause actual results to differ can be found in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2019, and our Form 10-Q for the 3 months ended March 31, 2020. Additionally, our explanation of how and why we use certain non-GAAP measures and how those measures reconcile to GAAP results is contained within our news release and the slides we posted last night and in our most recent 10-K. Speaking today will be Phil Lembo, our Executive VP and CFO. Also joining us today are Joe Nolan, our Executive Vice President for Strategy, Customer and Corporate Relations; John Moreira, our Treasurer and Senior VP for Finance and Regulatory; and Jay Buth, our Controller. Now I will turn to Slide 2 and turn over the call to Phil.
Philip Lembo:
Thank you, Jeff, and good morning, and I'll start off by wishing all and hoping that everyone on the phone remains healthy and that your families are safe and doing well. This morning, I will cover several items, talk about the results of the second quarter 2020, review the impacts of COVID-19 on our customers and their energy use. I'll discuss recent regulatory developments, including new grid modernization proposals in Connecticut and the status of our application in Massachusetts to purchase the assets of Columbia Gas of Massachusetts. And finally, provide an update for you on our offshore wind investment partnership with Ørsted. So let's get started on Slide 2, noting that recurring earnings were $0.76 per share in the second quarter of 2020 compared with recurring earnings of $0.74 per share in the second quarter of 2019. GAAP results, which include a charge of $0.01 per share relating to our pending acquisition of the assets of Columbia Gas, totaled $0.75 per share compared with earnings of $0.10 per share in the second quarter of 2019. And last year's results included a $0.64 per share impairment charge relating to Northern Pass. So in the first half of 2020, our recurring earnings, excluding Columbia Gas, totaled $1.77 per share compared with recurring earnings of $1.71 per share in the first half of 2019, again, excluding the NPT impairment charge. Turning to our business segments. Our electric distribution segment earned $0.34 per share in the second quarter of 2020 compared with $0.33 in the second quarter of last year. Improved results were driven by higher revenues, partially offset by dilution and higher O&M costs, depreciation and interest expense. Our electric transmission segment earned $0.39 per share in the second quarter of 2020 compared with recurring earnings of $0.37 per share, again, excluding the NPT charge, in the second quarter of 2019. Improved results were driven by a higher level of investment in our transmission facilities, partially offset by dilution. Our natural gas distribution segment earned $0.01 per share in the second quarter of 2020 compared with a slight loss in the second quarter of last year. Improved results were due to higher revenues, partially offset by O&M and depreciation as well as dilution. Our water distribution segment earned $0.03 per share in the second quarter of 2020 compared to earnings of $0.02 per share in the second quarter of 2019. Improved results were largely due to higher revenues and lower depreciation expense. At the Eversource parent, we lost $0.01 per share in the second quarter of 2020, excluding the Columbia Gas of Massachusetts asset acquisition costs compared to earnings of $0.02 per share in the second quarter of last year. The primary driver of the change was a lower mark-to-market earnings this year in a clean energy investment we made a number of years ago. As you may recall, this is an investment fund that matures soon, and each year, we mark that investment to market in the second quarter. As you probably noted in our news release, you can see on Slide 3 we are reaffirming our 2020 earnings per share guidance of $3.60 to $3.70 range as well as reaffirming our long-term EPS growth rate of 5% to 7%. We expect that our existing core business will allow us to grow earnings per share around the midpoint of that range through 2024. Earnings from offshore wind and Columbia Gas asset acquisition would both be incremental to that growth. So they would have somewhat of a different profile. As we've said before, offshore wind earnings would commence in the latter years of the forecast as the turbines enter service, while we expect Columbia Gas asset acquisition to be accretive to our earnings per share starting in 2021. From second quarter results, I'll turn to Slide 4 and our continued progress and success in operating the business during COVID-19 pandemic. Our very strong safety and reliability performance continued through the first half of the year. We've responded promptly and effectively to all the storms we've encountered, and the vast majority of our employees who either had tested positive for COVID-19 or were self-quarantined are now back to work, providing superior service to our 4 million customers. We remain on target to executing our $3 billion capital program. Through June, our capital expenditures have totaled $1.44 billion, about $30 million ahead of last year's pace. In terms of usage, kilowatt hour sales in the second quarter were down about 1.4% overall compared with last year. But in New Hampshire, which is not decoupled, they were actually up 1.8%. New Hampshire residential sector sales were very strong due primarily to more customers being at home as well as weather. And we see that throughout the company. We had cooler-than-normal weather in the first half of the quarter and hotter and more humid-than-normal weather in late May and June. On the natural gas side, where both Yankee Gas and NSTAR Gas are decoupled, sales in the second quarter were up about 1.7% compared with last year. And this was due to a colder April and early May weather. So on a weather-normalized basis, sales were off about 7% due to lower commercial and industrial usage. In our water segment, which is also decoupled in Connecticut, unit sales were up 7.1% in the second quarter this year largely due to customers irrigating their properties during a very hot and dry month of June. We are not shutting off customers for nonpayment. We continue that program. Connecticut and New Hampshire have implemented varying schedules for when shutoff moratoria will be lifted. In Massachusetts, we're working -- we're part of a group that's working now to review policies regarding payment plans and shutoffs for nonpayments, and there are no due dates but ending the moratorium at this time. So despite the moratoria in place across the company, the impact of COVID-19 on our overall receivable balance has been manageable to date. COVID-19 and sales -- I'll now turn to Slide 5, the recent developments around our ongoing rate reviews. We have 2 general review spending. Hearings in the NSTAR Gas rate review in Massachusetts concluded a month ago, and final reply briefing will take place in August. We continue to expect a decision by the end of October with new rates effective November 1. In New Hampshire, hearings in the Public Service of New Hampshire rate review start later, I guess, in the month of August with a final decision in November. New rates would be effective December 1, we expect, but would be retroactive to July 1, 2019, when a temporary rate increase of $28 million took effect. From the rate reviews, I'll now turn to grid modernization and the filing we're making in Connecticut right today, later on today. As I've mentioned on past calls, the Public Utilities Regulatory Authority, or PURA, has opened 11 dockets to look at modernizing the electric grid in Connecticut to accommodate customers' higher expectations for reliability and technology and to provide both increased resilience and a path to help the state reduce its carbon footprint by at least 80% by the year 2050. Today, we and other parties are filing proposals in 3 of the 11 dockets. As you can see on Slide 6, the most capital-intensive proposal we're making is related to automated meter infrastructure, or AMI, for Connecticut Light & Power customers. Our filing will present a comprehensive analysis of the costs as well as the technological, operational and environmental benefits of implementing AMI. Moreover, as I've said in the past, our current AMR metering technology is ending -- nearing the end of its useful life, and we'll need to replace about 800,000 meters one way or another over the next 5 years. It would involve capital investments that would be reviewed by PURA as part of their ongoing evaluation. In addition to AMI, we are seeking the support of -- to support the state of Connecticut in targeting to have about 125,000 electric vehicles on the road by the year 2025. Our proposal combines rebates and infrastructure investments over a 3-year period, enabling 2,500 homes to be wired for electric vehicle charging and for 3,000 additional charge ports to be enabled in multifamily dwellings, commercial centers, various destination locations and other places. We would not own the charge ports themselves, but we would invest in the backbone to get the power to the vehicles. Finally, we are proposing a program to incentivize the installation of 30 megawatts of storage among CL&P's residential customers and 20 megawatts on the commercial/industrial side. This program would not involve capital investment by CL&P, and we are requesting a modest level of success-based incentive similar to our energy efficiency programs. We expect PURA to facilitate an extensive review and public comment period over the balance of this year on all our proposals as well as other proposals that are likely to be submitted by utility and nonutility parties today. In Massachusetts, we continue to implement the grid modernization plan authorized by regulators more than 2 years ago. We expect to complete the authorized projects, including infrastructure to connect 3,500 charge ports and utility storage projects on Cape Cod and Martha's Vineyard, in 2021. In mid-2021, we'll be filing a new 3-year plan with implementation in the 2022 through 2024 time period. In addition to the regulatory proceedings I just reviewed, we've made significant progress on our acquisition of the assets of Columbia Gas of Massachusetts. Slide 7 reviews the key elements of the acquisition. We'll pay $1.1 billion in cash for the assets. The cash will come from the combination of the issuance of new parent equity and debt. We raised the equity portion in mid-June when we sold 6 million shares and netted just over $500 million in proceeds. We're very pleased with the investor interest in the issuance, which was nearly 3x oversubscribed and priced without a discount to the prior days closed. We'll fund the debt portion of the purchase price from a future parent long-term debt issuance. We're very confident the transaction will be accretive to Eversource shareholders in 2021, the first full year after closing, and be very positive for Columbia Gas customers. Slide 8 reviews the principal elements of our DPU filings. I want to emphasize that this transaction provides both local ownership to one of the largest gas delivery systems in Massachusetts and a pathway for 330,000 customers to benefit from Eversource's award-winning energy efficiency program, our strong safety record and high level of customer service and reliability. We truly believe it is a win for customer -- Columbia Gas customers, the communities and for the state as a whole. The DPU filings, which are available on our investor website under the Rate Case Update section, includes a settlement between the state's Attorney General, Governor Baker's Department of Energy Resources, a low-income coalition, NiSource and Eversource. We've asked the DPU to approve the application by September 30. The DPU has scheduled virtual public hearings August 25 and August 27 to take up the matter. The settlement structures an 8-year rate plan with modest rate increases on November 1, 2021 and 2022, respectively. There are additional base rate resets November 1, 2024. And in 2027, that will be related to the level of investment we expect to make in the Columbia system. These investments are separate from the pipe replacement capital tracker that all Massachusetts natural gas distribution companies have implemented to help accelerate the replacement of older cast iron and unprotected steel pipe. And we expect Columbia to continue to replace about 45 miles of its older pipe annually. The agreement maintains Columbia's currently authorized equity component of its capital structure of 53.25% but raises the authorized return on equity from currently at 9.55% to 9.7%. As I mentioned earlier, we fully expect the transaction to be accretive in 2021 and to be incrementally accretive in each of the following years. Based on the integration planning we've undertaken to date, we also remain confident that the transaction would be very beneficial to Columbia Gas customers and communities. As you can see on the slide, we'll provide the DPU with a status report on the Columbia system by September of next year. That report will provide a blueprint of enhancements we'll make to ensure that Columbia's 330,000 customers receive the same level of safe and reliable service that our existing 550,000 natural gas distribution company -- customers receive in Massachusetts and Connecticut. Turning now to Slide 9 in our offshore wind partnership with Ørsted. On June 9, the Federal Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, or BOEM, released its cumulative impact study concerning potential development of about 22,000 megawatts of offshore wind generation along the Atlantic seaboard. This was an important step in BOEM's evaluation process for the different applications that have been filed to date, including 2 of our joint proposals with Ørsted, one of those being South Fork, the other Revolution Wind. The study reviewed the impact of the projects which BOEM expects to be developed over the next decade. Impacts were graded from major to negligible, I guess, on their scale. The level of impacts identified in the report were anticipated by the offshore wind industry. They were primary reason that the 4 developers in the 6 ocean tracks off in Massachusetts, including our partnership with Ørsted, proposed a 1 nautical mile by 1 nautical mile spacing for all turbines in the region. A cumulative impact study found that such spacing would at least partially mitigate the impact on fisheries and navigation. The cumulative impact study was supported by the Coast Guard's earlier conclusion that a proposed turbine spacing, which is the widest in the world for offshore wind, was adequate to support safe navigation in search and rescue efforts. Fisheries mitigation plans proposed through other agencies such as the Rhode Island Coastal Resource Management Commissioner will further mitigate impacts on fisheries by providing compensation for fishermen for negative impacts resulting from the wind farms. The response to the analysis by the public was, I'd say, largely positive with a renewed emphasis on the very significant contributions these turbines will make to carbon emission reductions in the Northeast. Five public comment sessions on the impact study were held in the summer, and written comments were due on Monday this week. BOEM is expected to make a final decision on the Vineyard Wind application on December 18. And as you recall, Vineyard Wind is the first New England project in the queue. We expect that later this summer, BOEM will release its schedule for federal agency review of South Fork. And as we disclosed in the Q1 earnings call, we believe it is very unlikely that South Fork will enter service before the end of 2022, so after that date. On the other projects, we were able to resume survey work in June in New York state to support our Sunrise Wind filing with BOEM. We continue to expect that filing to be made later this year. And finally, last week, New York issued an RFP for up to 2,500 megawatts of offshore wind. Bids are due on this RFP by October 20, with awards to be made by the end of this year to ensure the winners can benefit from expiring federal tax credits. We and Ørsted expect to bid into that RFP. Sunrise Wind partnership, one more than half of New York's initial offshore wind RFP in 2019. That concludes my comments, and I'll turn the call back to Jeff for Q&A.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
And I will return the call to Vanessa just to remind you about how to enter the Q&A queue.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions].
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you, Vanessa. Our first question this morning is from Shar from Guggenheim.
Shahriar Pourreza:
So just a couple of questions here. Focusing on the core business, I mean you provided an in-depth slide on the Connecticut grid mod filing you had this week. And you've also stated in the past that the total AMI opportunity in Connecticut and Massachusetts is a little over $1 billion of CapEx that would be incremental to plan. So if we sort of take this incremental opportunity, pair it with the accretive Columbia Gas deal, does it support sort of the top end? Or are we in a situation where the actual growth guide can actually change to maybe 6% to 8%? So I guess how do we -- how should we sort of think about the shape that you kind of highlighted, especially when you're layering in offshore wind and you're rolling growth forward? So is it a function of supporting a higher end of that growth? Or does the actual CAGR change in time?
Philip Lembo:
Thanks for your question, Shar. The answer to that is the grid modernization program in Connecticut is really still in the midst of a process to review the 11 categories. And really, the goals are to eliminate the barriers to grow in the state's green economy, transition into a decarbonized future, enabling customers to access resilient, reliable, secure energy. So the PURA process is underway, and the exact details of that won't be developed until we move through the entire process. So depending on -- I guess it's premature to provide a guidance there, but as we move through the process with PURA, the programs will become clear. The spending levels would become clear. Sort of the time periods will become clear. And then it would be -- we'd be able to kind of slot those into the plan. But certainly, if you're making smart investments in growing rate base to benefit customers like we do and are able to keep your costs under control and you have a benefit of an accretive transaction, that should help bolster your earnings potential and growth prospects going forward.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Okay. Got it. And then just one last question is the Connecticut assembly members sent a letter to PURA earlier this week requesting they suspend the rate increases that went into effect that you guys suspend on July 1. PURA took this as like a formal motion for reconsideration and will rule on the motion after considering sort of comments. Any thoughts there and expectations on this development?
Philip Lembo:
Sure. Certainly, there's been some press related to customer concerns about high bills in Connecticut, and I can assure you that we have in the past and we continue to work with our customers in a broad sense, in one-on-one, really to reduce bills. We have a variety of customer care programs. We have extensive and we are extending financial assistance programs to help customers manage and reduce future bills. We have award-winning energy efficiency programs and support for that. As I mentioned in my script that there's a moratorium, there's no shutoff. We're not shutting off customers, and we're working diligently to help customers in this pandemic situation. I will say that the bills in general are due to much -- the higher bills are due to much hotter weather this June, really, and more customers working at home. I think we're all doing that. Residential sales at Connecticut Light & Power spiked in June. Really, the residential kilowatt hours were 26% higher this June versus last June, and 36% kilowatt hour usage was 36% higher than May. So a customer gets one bill and they see it, then they get the next bill and they see an increase. But there's been a 36% increase in usage. That's really driven by -- I'd say, 85% or more is driven by this record level of usage. In fact, anecdotally, the weather has still been hot afterwards. I mean we've been going through some heat waves, and we've been setting some -- the record levels of temperature. So really, there's some additional items. We have a contract to provide payment and subsidy, some might say, to Millstone Nuclear Plant. We had some transmission true-ups that we do that's really just to reflect an under-collection of transmission. So overall, sort of on a rate standpoint, the rate overall on a customer's bill is only up about 3.5%. And I think when you look at the impacts of the Millstone, without that, we didn't have that contract, the actual rate would have been about $5 lower for a typical customer. So the -- I think, certainly, there's a reaction. People are hurting. We want to help, be a part of the solution here. And usage is the driver. So our energy efficiency programs and other programs that we have are going to come to the forefront. So we're working closely with all our customers, with the regulators and other folks to get the message out about the drivers and what can be done to help mitigate usage in the future.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Next question is from James Thalacker from BMO Capital Markets.
James Thalacker:
Real quick question on Columbia, and I don't want to put the cart before the horse or get too granular, but as we're thinking about the accretion, I know you've spoken about it being accretive in the next 12 months post the close. But as we think about kind of, say, maybe a mid-30s kind of net income that was being booked when NiSource was running it and then there's some shared services, can you talk a little bit about how quickly you think those shared services will sort of roll off? Any sort of guidance you can give us on kind of what the magnitude of that was? And finally, I guess, just when do you think you could get -- at least approach that kind of allowed ROE that you guys have settled on in that 9.7% range?
Philip Lembo:
Okay. Well, thank you for the question. And really, we're very excited with this transaction. Really, the primary heating source in Massachusetts, gas is really good. It displaces dirtier oil that's being used for heating. So in terms of expanding the gas footprint, we believe that the gas delivery infrastructure is critical to own in the state going forward. So this transaction is very positive from a customer and a company standpoint. As you can imagine, we're in the midst now of our integration efforts with Columbia. We did enter into, I'd say, a very constructive settlement agreement with the parties. I discussed that the approval is expected by the end of September. We're still in the process of parsing out what functions we can take over on day 1, what functions we're going to need to have a transition agreement, how those -- how that transition agreement will work, over what time period. So we should say, I'm not putting the cart before the horse, but I think our expectation, and I'd be disappointed if we weren't able to earn our authorized returns within a few years there that we have some incremental costs and some processes to improve right from the get-go and knowing our track record for our ability to do that. I'd say very quickly, we should be able to make those processes hum, I'd say, into our Eversource process. So again, I'd be disappointed if we weren't able to get up to that level within a few years.
James Thalacker:
Okay. Great. And just one last, I guess, question, just rounding that up. The amount of debt that you guys have to do to sort of complete the transaction is pretty de minimis, but I was just wondering if you guys had put any sort of interest rate swaps or sort of locked in the interest rate on that at this point.
Philip Lembo:
We use a variety of -- you can hedge some rates. You could just try to look at your debt profile in terms of identifying times to go. So I'd say that in general, we're not big on swaps and we do a little bit more plain vanilla sort of, I'd say, long-term debt financing.
James Thalacker:
Got it. More part of your sort of your omnibus debt financing you do for the corporation.
Philip Lembo:
Yes, exactly. It's similar to how we do it with the rest of the corporation.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Our next question is from Sophie Karp from KeyBanc.
Sophie Karp:
Congrats on the quarter. So I wanted to chat maybe a little bit about the offshore wind and the progress there. And just are there any concerns with everything that's been going on in the supply chain with the availability of equipment? Or if has anything changed, I guess, with respect to how the supply chain is developing in the U.S.? And how much equipment is available from outside of the U.S. given all of the disruptions we are seeing from the pandemic?
Philip Lembo:
Good question, Sophie. We -- certainly, the step 1 in this process is putting together a compelling bid to win an RFP that is both at an appropriate level for -- to achieve our mid-teens return target. Sort of step 2 is getting through all the -- getting through the permitting application processes that we're saying. But a key element of the construction plan is certainly the supply chain that you pointed out. And I can assure you that from the joint venture standpoint, from our team working on the project, Ørsted's team, that, that is a priority to stay connected to suppliers, to understand what the queues are, how we can manage those queues to effectively deliver. So I can't guarantee that there isn't a supply date that somebody might not be able to make because of COVID-19. But I'd say, overall, I'm comfortable that we've had a high degree of high-level interest and oversight over the supply chain so that we're on top of the current situation.
Sophie Karp:
Okay. Okay. No, that sounds fair. And I guess, overall, the expectation would be that the development costs would decline as we have more of these projects under development and more coming online and turbines are getting larger. Is this trend sort of something that can be accelerated even more by COVID, you think, because of greater industrial capacity availability maybe? Is that something that we talked about? Or is that fair?
Philip Lembo:
Yes. I think that COVID or no COVID, I think the supply chain costs are coming down. And I think the trend over the last several years has been costs on the downslope turbines getting larger. So I'd say that that's been a trend that's been there despite the pandemic. And whether or not there's additional manufacturing or industrial capabilities to who are doing something else that now can retool to move into offshore wind, I think that could only be even more helpful. So think there's an underlying trend of bigger and less expensive overall. And possibly, as you suggest, with additional capacity that some manufacturers have, that could even provide more opportunities to accelerate that trend.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Our next question is from Durgesh from Evercore.
Durgesh Chopra:
Can you perhaps comment on what kind of bill increases, I'm thinking percentage bill increases, are you proposing in the 8-year plan in Massachusetts?
Philip Lembo:
I didn't catch the last, in the what plan?
Durgesh Chopra:
In the 8-year rate plan in the Columbia Gas of Massachusetts settlement that you filed. Just wondering if you can share with us what impacts are you proposing to customer bills.
Philip Lembo:
Okay. So yes, good question. I'm sorry, I didn't catch the back part of that. But essentially, as I talked about, there's no change until 2021 and 2022. So there's really -- in the near term for Columbia Gas transaction, we're not proposing to make any change, that those changes get implemented over the following year and the year after that. So really, there's -- the normal course of business in terms of Massachusetts Gas activities is that aside from the base distribution rate, we have this accelerated pipe replacement, we call GSEP, gas system enhancement program. And that's where I mentioned that I would expect that Columbia will continue with about 45 miles of pipe replacement over the course of -- over the -- as annual pipe replacement. So really, there's no increase until November of '21 and November of '22, and I'd say those increases are modest at that point.
Durgesh Chopra:
Understood. Very helpful color. And then just can you remind us of your current consolidated tax-paying status? And then if that changes with the Columbia gas acquisition?
Philip Lembo:
We are a taxpayer. We had -- we've always talked about being a taxpayer in the neighborhood of $100 million in that standpoint. So we still continue to be that. We might be, in 2020, more in the $150 million, $160 million range in terms of federal and state taxes combined. So that's -- with Columbia, certainly, if you have -- there's net income there that would -- that could change your tax position, but that's the position we're in. We've been a taxpayer, and in 2020, slightly elevated from where we had been before. So we might be in the $150 million, $160 million range in terms of cash tax.
Durgesh Chopra:
Perfect. And just one really quick one. Anything in particular on the -- I appreciate water business is decoupled in small portion of your earnings power. But anything in particular in terms of COVID trends there which are different from the electric gas? I mean are you seeing the same dynamic, residential being higher, commercial industrial being lower? But anything in particular different on the water side than -- compared to electric gas real quick?
Philip Lembo:
No. There really isn't, on the COVID front, any difference. The same safety protocols in place, the same kind of people working from home issues of usage. The only -- the other thing we've seen, again, it's not COVID related, it's just because of the hot humid weather and lack of rain, people were -- have been using more water for irrigation purposes, but nothing on the COVID side that's different.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Our next question is from Jeremy Tonet from JPMorgan.
Jeremy Tonet:
Just want to start off with offshore wind again here. New York recently upped the RFPs and it's now seeking 2,500 megawatts of capacity here. The deadline seems like it's coming up this fall for proposals. I imagine this could be of interest to Eversource. And just wondering if you could comment on the market dynamics, how you see that -- they've evolved in these type of competitive bidding process over time. It seems like they've been pretty aggressive bids. I'm just wondering what your thoughts are on here and what's your strategy.
Philip Lembo:
Thank you for the question. Our strategy is one that targets financial discipline and financial returns that are at the higher end of our return profile. So that would be in the mid-teens level. So we work actively with Ørsted, and we develop joint proposals. I can assure you that we -- in our proposals, we look to uncover every rock, so to speak, in terms of what's included in that proposal, both from a financial and nonfinancial sort of economic development standpoint. So most of these proposals have a financial element to them and a -- sort of an economic development element to them. So we work effectively with our partner to do that. Certainly, there have been other participants, there are some players who purchased leases in the recent lease auction by the Federal Government that are now in the game, I'd say, to prepare RFPs. Our approach has not been to chase those or to win a bid, but to be disciplined and to focus what we do well and bid accordingly.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. That's helpful. In the first scheduled technical conference to explore whether existing policy can accommodate future offshore wind growth, just wondering if you could refresh us on your thoughts on how you see your transmission asset position here. And do you think you can accommodate future growth? Just any thoughts on that in general would be helpful.
Philip Lembo:
Sure. I think it goes in phases. And certainly, in our region, so in New England, as you know, there's been many large power plant retirements, whether they be nuclear or coal or oil plants that have retired over the last several years. And those retirements have been -- happened to be in locations that are very conducive for offshore wind to make landfall to connect into. So there's good onshore interconnection capabilities as a result of those. I'd say, there's robust switchyards, things like that. We've invested a considerable amount of money in our transmission system over the last decade to upgrade and make it more resilient. So I'd say, in the near term, for what's on the drawing board, I think that aside from specific locations, if you're landing in a specific location, you might need to do a specific upgrade. But in the big picture standpoint, I think the interconnection points, the transmission system in this region capable of handling the RFPs that are out there. If -- x years down the road, if those -- there's more and more and more desire for offshore wind and more interconnection points needed, you may run into constraints where the interconnection locations that have capacity now may get used up. So I guess from a timing standpoint, in the near term, I'd say, the transmission investments are more localized depending on the landing place and what that substation might look like. So in a big picture standpoint, we're in good shape. But as time goes on, the capacity could be used up and require additional transmission investment.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. So fair to say in the near term, you don't see any sizable transmission project needs, maybe at some point over time but nothing sizable transmission in the near term?
Philip Lembo:
Well, they could -- as I said, there could be a specific substation. When you say sizable, there's not billions of dollars, but you could have substation upgrades 50s millions, hundreds of millions of dollars or something like that, but that would be specific to the location of where the landing interconnection point is. So I'd say it's kind of location specific and not a broad investment.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Our next question this morning is from Mike Weinstein from Crédit Suisse.
Michael Weinstein:
I just wanted to ask about the -- as you think about the new gas business from Columbia, is that additive to the 6% to 8% growth rate over time? Or is that in line with that growth rate considering the accretion that's going to happen off the bat bringing up the ROE?
Philip Lembo:
Well, Mike, as you know, our growth rate is 5% to 7%.
Michael Weinstein:
I'm sorry, 5% to 7%, 5% to 7%.
Philip Lembo:
I'm glad you think -- that's why we're such a high-performing company there. 5% to 7%...
Michael Weinstein:
Going to get more sleep.
Philip Lembo:
But as I may have said earlier that, certainly, as that property gets to be, I'd say, hitting on all cylinders once we can get all the integration efforts done, we're no longer using transition service agreement, we're able to move all the functions over to an Eversource system, et cetera, that we feel very good about being able to get to the allowed returns that are in the settlement. And as you know, summon hasn't been approved yet. So -- but my -- if you look at our history of being able to operate effectively, our operations team does a fantastic job in terms of keeping our system up and running, whether it be, as we say, a blue sky day or whether it be a trouble on the system, keeping the gas flowing, investing appropriately so that we can reduce O&M that -- right now, the contribution from Columbia is not in our guidance number. So that is going to be helpful. It's going to add to whatever number we had having Columbia in there because it's accretive transaction.
Michael Weinstein:
Do you think it will be additive to that growth rate, though, going forward as you roll -- especially as you roll forward your CapEx plans and your growth rate by the next year?
Philip Lembo:
Yes. I think it's more probable to be additive, right, to either move it up in the range or help -- go above that, but we're not making any determination of that at this time. But certainly, there's financial benefits of the transaction, as I mentioned, as well as customer, community and state benefits to us moving in on that system. So we feel it will be additive to the story.
Michael Weinstein:
Great. And on Connecticut grid mod, how has that -- the financing for that program? And is that reflected in your current plans? Or -- especially since some of that goes out beyond the current 5-year plan, has all that been already reflected in the plan? Or is that going to require some more financing plans approved?
Philip Lembo:
So just to be clear on the grid mod across the 3 states. The only grid modernization investment that is in our current plan is in Massachusetts where we have approval, spend $233 million on a variety of programs, including battery storage, EV infrastructure, technology enhancements, et cetera. So there's nothing in our plan right now for New Hampshire or Connecticut. And the reason for that is there's been no approval of any plans there. So as -- so to answer your question directly, there's no financing need because we don't have anything in the plan right now for grid modernization of the Massachusetts. If, in fact, we go through the processes in the various states and programs develop and spending gets identified, then we'll have to determine what that does to the investment plan, whether -- how we're going to finance that, et cetera. But right now, there's nothing in the plan, so there's no financing associated with it.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Next question is from Paul Patterson from Glenrock.
Paul Patterson:
So back to the Connecticut grid mod, I apologize if I missed this. How should we think about that impacting rates? I know you got some CapEx, but also maybe there might be some savings with AMI. Can we get a little bit of a sense about how that works?
Philip Lembo:
Yes. I think that it depends on what the size of the programs are that the PURA would approve going forward. So it's really difficult to answer specifically what that is. I mean some of the spending we're going to have to do -- as I mentioned, we're going to have to replace our meters anyway. So if we work on an AMI program, that we'll be buying AMI meters instead of other meters, so how much of that is incremental, what level of battery storage or EV infrastructure does the state want. So right now, it would just be hypothetical. And until we get some approval from the -- from PURA, there's really no impact in -- on rates because there's no programs in place in Connecticut right now. Overall, I'd say, overall, if you look at the Massachusetts example, it's modest in the sense of the spending. It's $233 million over a multiyear period, so it's less than $100 million a year type of thing. So even if you took that kind of approach, it's not going to have a dramatic impact.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. What -- with respect to Millstone, did I hear you correctly, that's $5 a month effectively of the bill increase that's causing such a stern to Connecticut right now?
Philip Lembo:
Well, what I said was in Connecticut -- and you can imagine, right, that we're all working from home. I'm working from home. I'm sure you're working from home. And so people are not used to having their air conditioner around all day. I know that before I left in the morning, I'd adjust my temperature of my thermostat or have your nest adjusted because you're not there. And now people are there 24/7, and it's been really -- it's been hot. And I said that weather is really the -- has caused the increase in usage, I mean, in the bill. I mean 36% more usage from our -- kind of in our residential customer segment than the previous month. So you were using 36% more than you were using in May and June. And if you want to go back to last year, June to June, you're using 26% more. So either way, you're using a lot more. And really, the weight -- as the bill is the rate times the usage, so the usage is up dramatically, the rate in the calculation is up about 3.5%. If you look at the total rate, the distribution charge, the energy charge has gone down. So what I said was Millstone, there's -- we have a requirement to buy power out of Millstone is a charge on the bill for that purchase. And what I said in terms of the $5 was if that wasn't there, if we weren't buying that power there, that the typical customer bill -- like EEI says 700 kilowatt hours is kind of a typical customer. If you were to take that typical customer bill, it would have gone down by $5, so -- as opposed to increasing. So that is a part of it. Usage is a part of it. We had some transmission under collection, but you move into the next period to collect. So all those things combined are impacting the customers' bill. And we're trying to work with the customers and regulators, whatever, on this. First of all...
Paul Patterson:
I know you are. I know you guys take it very seriously. I guess all I'm sort of wondering, though, is that this is a little unusual in that we've had legislative leadership. We've got this letter. We've got the PURA almost immediately responding. We're seeing -- we look -- as you know, we're looking around the country and what have you. When we see this, it is rather -- one of the things that's come up in the media is this focus on Millstone. But then also, as you know, we've got offshore wind. We've got other calls coming in. And I'm just wondering, I'll just lay it out here, how do you guys see -- I know you guys are trying to manage it. I know you guys are doing energy efficiency and what have you, but how should we think about when we see something like this? Is it just sort of a blip? In other words, all the things that you're talking about is a perfect storm here thing? Or should we think about perhaps other efforts or issues to manage the situation over time, if you follow what I'm saying?
Philip Lembo:
I do. I follow what you're saying. We take bill impact very seriously. Any decision we make for investment opportunity, we fully assess the bill impacts. At the end of the day, customers are paying for these investments. And we have a responsibility, and we take it very seriously to make sure that the impacts there are not significant and not -- that the price -- the cost of the improvement is worth it. And if you -- really, we -- if you look at our history, I put our track record up against anybody in terms of ability to take costs out of the system. We -- post merger, we took 5% O&M out of the business every year, over $250 million. When we've been in for recent rate reviews, the headline story has been our O&M costs today as part of the rate filing are less, not by inflation, just absolutely less today than they were 10 years ago. And our service is 30% to 40% or more higher. So we take it seriously to keep our costs down. And if we're putting capital in, that O&M comes out and so -- but it is something that -- we look at impacts on a custom bill. But I do think to your kind of analogy, it is a bit of a perfect storm in the sense of everybody is home, the weather has been extraordinarily hot, and I think the usage is really what the driver is. And I think as people see what the real components of the change were, that the governor, the legislature, the regulators, the customers will have a better appreciation that it's more related to usage than anything. 80% to 90% of it is usage related.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Next question is from Ryan Levine from Citi.
Ryan Levine:
Do you see any green hydrogen or other hydrogen-based opportunities to leverage your platform? And have you started to pursue any of these potential opportunities?
Philip Lembo:
Thanks for the question. And certainly, hydrogen has been sort of in the news or it's a topic and whether it be transportation or other usage. And I'd say we're in the phase now. We're evaluating the possible usage of hydrogen and various aspects of our business, again, whether it be an alternative for transportation or whether it be for some other component of introducing it to our gas distribution infrastructure. So I'd say, at this stage, we're tracking its progress globally and we'll keep an eye on it. But we have not, say, identified any specific applications at this stage.
Ryan Levine:
Okay. And maybe just one follow-up. On that point, are you looking at anything to integrate some of your wind development opportunities with hydrogen? Or is it more for the LDC and transportation [indiscernible]?
Philip Lembo:
Well, as I said, we're tracking all possible applications there. But there haven't been any specific identified on the offshore wind side at this stage.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Next question is from Julien from Bank of America.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
So perhaps just to wrap up the start of the call here. On the timing for updates with CMA and otherwise, would the expectation you're going to roll in CMA accretion into the 4Q roll forward? And then as you think about some of these other CapEx items, we'll probably make it into the next iteration in '22. I'm just thinking about the Connecticut en masse, both on the AMI and the EV storage process. Just when do you expect to make these updates and roll forward and integrate it all at once, if you will? Perhaps going back to the core of Shar's question, if you will.
Philip Lembo:
Yes. Thanks for your question, Julien, and I hope you're doing well. The timing lines up just as you say, that in terms of the expectation for any real finalization of programs, et cetera, out -- in the Connecticut grid modernization, we'll be getting approval for Columbia at the end of September. So it all sort of neatly times up -- times together so that we can roll it into the update that we do in the fourth quarter. So that would be my thinking at this stage. If something would happen to change that, but I think the base thinking is that they would all be rolled into the next update.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Excellent. All right. And then quickly on the offshore, I don't want to beat this up too much, but can you just define the parameters of what's the opportunity for you all, just in terms of timing the size of the project when you think about your own lease size availability and how that lines up against the resource RFP that they're looking for? I just want to kind of frame the timing, the synergies and the total size as you see it today. Again, I'm not going to hold you to it, just broadly the parameters.
Philip Lembo:
Well, a couple of the general parameters are our two lease areas can develop, say, 4,000 megawatts of offshore wind. We currently have 1,710 megawatts of offshore wind under contract. So just -- not quite half of the lease areas are under contract right now. So in terms of what's available to us, we have kind of a 4,000 megawatt opportunity we've identified up and down the New England states included. And then if you include New York into that, that there's more capacity that is being sought by the states than what the lease -- all the leases combined have the opportunity to produce. So we think that our leases are well situated in terms of their proximity to shore. Our leases are well situated in terms of ocean depth. Our leases are well situated in terms of wind speed. So we think that -- and plus we're into those leases at a small amount of money compared to the $130-plus million that the recent lease owners bought their leases at. So -- but from a cost standpoint, from a lease location and size, I think the opportunity is still very strong for us in the future and the RFPs that are out there are only going to get more as we go forward.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Timing settlements on New Hampshire, lastly?
Philip Lembo:
So we have a rate proceeding in New Hampshire. It has been -- it was delayed a bit, I'd say, from the COVID situation. But we're looking to finalize that later in this year, probably in November, with rates effective in December. But as you recall, in New Hampshire, it's kind of a 2-phase process. So we received temporary rates in July of 2019. So whenever we get the final rate decision, they kind of go retroactive back to that point. So -- but the -- to answer your question directly, the final decision is we're looking at the November time frame with the rates effective December 1.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Next question is from David Arcaro from Morgan Stanley.
David Arcaro:
I was wondering if you could run through the equity needs in the forecast right now. And was also curious if you would anticipate that CapEx associated with growing the Columbia Gas business over time and the kind of yet to be approved Connecticut grid mod CapEx would also potentially need any additional equity on top of the base plan.
Philip Lembo:
Thanks for the question, David. Hope you and your family are doing well. So what's in our plan right now is about $700 million of equity needs to support our plan that we've laid out that goes through 2024. So in that plan, Columbia was not in that plan. So we did a separate financing for Columbia. But going forward, we'll have to incorporate Columbia into our plan going forward. And then as I mentioned earlier, we do not currently have any spending for Connecticut or New Hampshire grid modernization in the plan. So the $700 million supports the current $14 billion CapEx plan that we have. As we look to update that going forward, we're going to have to consider cash flow, cash from operations, what we have maturing, what we might need to do. So I'd say that's to be determined and would be disseminated when we update the -- our plan at the Q4 call.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
It looks like we have one more questioner in the call -- in the queue. Travis Miller from Morningstar.
Travis Miller:
Just two quick ones on Columbia. One, what is the pipe replacement CapEx as a share of the total CapEx? That's the first one. And then second one, if you're able to close by the end of October, would there be any material earnings impact this year from Columbia?
Philip Lembo:
So I'll answer the second question first. No, nothing material. We expect to close soon after getting approval from the DPU. There could be a few months of operations in the numbers, but I'd say nothing material is expected for those for that time frame. In terms of the exact percentage of GSEP to total, I'm going to have to get you the information on that. I don't have that off the top of my head, Travis, but we can get back to you on that.
Travis Miller:
Okay. No problem. And then two quick ones on offshore wind. One with the New York RFPs, is there any chance that you guys could be more competitive, either lower cost or better synergies, with Sunrise Wind relative to other bidders who might have no stake there right now in New York? And then that was the first one. And then second, New Jersey has thrown out a whole bunch of big numbers on offshore, would you be interested in doing anything in New Jersey?
Philip Lembo:
So in terms of the second part of your question, our lease areas really are best suited for New Eng to reach any RFPs that go on in New England or into New York. So New Jersey would be a bit far for our lease areas to be truly effective in reaching. So I'd say New Jersey would not be part of our strategy. In terms of our competitive position, yes, I mean I'd like to think we'd be competitive anywhere, whether we have a contract or even if we don't. I mean that -- and certainly, there are advantages of having contracts. There's advantages of having plans already in place and an understanding of the area. But I think that I am thrilled that our partner is the worldwide leader in offshore wind development with Ørsted. We're the -- I'd like to think the very -- in a leadership role in terms of our transmission and our local knowledge and ability. So I like our chances whether we already have existing contracts or don't have existing contracts to win RFPs that come out. But certainly, there are advantages if you do have contracts in place, I'd say.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
All right. And that wraps up all the questions for today. So we want to thank you very much for joining us. And please follow through with any e-mails or questions by phone if you have any. Have a great day and a great weekend.
Philip Lembo:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Welcome to the Eversource Energy Q1 2020 Results Conference Call. My name is Richard, and I'll be your operator for today's call. [Operator instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. I'll now turn the call over to Jeffrey Kotkin, vice president for investor relations for Eversource Energy. Mr. Kotkin, you may begin.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thank you, Richard. Good morning and thank you for joining us today. I'm Jeff Kotkin, Eversource Vice President for IR. During this call, we'll be referencing slides that we posted last night on our Web site, and as you can see on slide one, some of the statements made during this Investor Call may be forward-looking as defined within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risk and uncertainty, which may cause the actual results to differ materially from forecasts and projections. These factors are set forth in the news release issued yesterday. Additional information about the various factors that may cause actual results to differ can be found in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2019. Additionally, our explanation of how and why we use certain non-GAAP measures and how those measures reconcile to GAAP results is contained within our news release and the slides we posted last night and in our most recent 10-K. Speaking today will be Phil Lembo, our Executive Vice President and CFO. Also joining us today are Joe Nolan, our Executive Vice President for Strategy, and Customer and Corporate Relations; John Moreira, our Treasurer and Senior VP for Finance and Regulatory; and Jay Buth, our VP and Controller. We are generally speaking from different locales this morning across Massachusetts and Connecticut. Now, I will turn to slide two, and turn over the call to Phil.
Phil Lembo:
Thank you, Jeff, and we all hope that everyone on the phone is healthy and remains healthy and that your families also are safe and doing well. This morning, I'll review the results of the first quarter. I'll talk about our efforts to build and operate in our critical electric and natural gas and water infrastructure during this COVID-19 pandemic. I'll talk a little bit about the recent regulatory developments, and finally, provide you an update on our offshore wind investment partnership with Orsted. I'll start with slide two, and our significant and comprehensive efforts to deal with the impact of the coronavirus. Our country and our region, I guess, it's an understatement to say we're in the midst of an incredibly challenging period, and Eversource, as a provider of critical services for nearly half New England, is taking its responsibility to its customers and its employees extremely seriously, and as you know, Massachusetts and Connecticut are two of the states most impacted by the virus. More than 100,000 cases have been confirmed across those two states and an additional 2,600 in New Hampshire. Our priority is at Eversource start with the health and safety of our employees, our customers, and our communities. We're closely following the guidance provided by the CDC and local health authorities in our daily work activities. Although we are actively accomplishing all of our essential work, we have suspended certain less time-sensitive work, such as upgrades to our own work centers and offices, as well as, some work interior to customers' locations for energy audits and alike. We've undertaken extensive efforts to expand our facility sanitizing efforts, and have enhanced the availability of personal protective equipment, including face coverings and masks, so our employees can continue to maintain our energy systems in a safe manner. We took early and aggressive actions in accordance with our well-defined pandemic action plan, and we have continuously refined and adjusted our playbook as we moved through the situation. Nearly all of our employees who normally work in an office setting are working remotely; a practice that's been in place since early March. Approximately 4,500 employees continue to work in the field to support the reliability and safety of our energy and water delivery systems, but significant changes have been made in their work patterns as well. They've been able to receive their daily work assignments without having to enter our buildings. Their line trucks and other vehicles are disinfected before and after every shift. Employees traveling in Eversource vehicles are now driving one-person per vehicle, where we previously had a two-person, it's one-person per vehicle, and when at the work site, maintaining a six-foot social distancing and face coverings when conditions require them, and those are all enforced as standard work practices. We've been very clear in our communications that if any employee feels ill, they should stay home, while also implementing temperature checking and other health screening before anyone enters our electric and gas control rooms. We're equipped to initiate a quarantine process early line to isolate those who potentially were exposed to COVID-19, either at work or at home. We believe this has been a very positive -- has resulted in very positive impacts on our ability to minimize the spread of the virus to others. To date, more than 400 employees have returned to work following their quarantine period in medical clearance. To date, we've had 30 employees who have been confirmed positive for COVID-19, and actually, 18 of those are now back to work. We've successfully maintained our high level of service and safety and also kept up with the necessary pace to achieve our capital investment work program for the year. I'll talk more about this in a minute. When we have experienced significant weather events, we were able to deal with them safely, promptly, and effectively. A mid-March heavy wet snowstorm resulted in more than 56,000 New Hampshire customers losing power, but crews from all three states responded and restored power within 24 hours. Also an intense Nor'easter battered our service territory and many others on April 13, but we were able to restore power to nearly all of the 240,000 impacted customers within the first 24 hours after the storm hit. There are many other areas where we changed our traditional practices to accomplish key work during the pandemic threat. We've moved all electronic permission-gathering programs for our annual clearance program in Connecticut. We held our first virtual annual meeting yesterday. Above all, we continue to execute our business plans and strategy successfully. As shown on slide three, our total return through the first four months of the year compares very favorably to our peers and to the broader market. This follows our very strong performance in 2019 and the three-year, five-year, 10-year total returns that far outpaced both the EEI index and the S&P 500. In this period of uncertainty, our business model resonates very well. Well over 90% of our business is revenue-decoupled. We have pension recovery trackers for our FERC transmission and Massachusetts distribution businesses. Much of our capital improvement program is tracked and we are operating under multiyear rate plans for our three largest distribution franchises. Additionally, under existing approved mechanisms, we recover all bad debt associated with power supply or medical or financial hardship accounts. We continue to receive strong support from our customers, regulators, and policymakers in the face of this unprecedented challenge. Last week, Connecticut regulators issued an interim decision that calls to utilities to offer payment programs during the COVID-19 crisis that are available to any customer requesting financial assistance. Requiring no initial down payment and have a duration of 24 months and waive any fees or interest in calculation of the monthly payment amount, essentially what we've already been doing. Recognizing the possible increase in utilities receivable balances and bad debt expense, the Connecticut Power directed utilities to maintain a detailed record of these costs incurred and revenues lost as a result of implementing its orders, and said it will allow utilities to establish a regulatory asset to track incurred costs. These costs will include working capital costs which will be calculated in accordance with the utilities' most recent rate case. However, as you can see on slide four, there has been some impacts on our regulatory dockets. In New Hampshire, the electric rate case schedule has been delayed. We were originally scheduled to receive a final order in May and implement permanent rates on July 1st, 2020, but the governance executive order in late April now provides the New Hampshire PUC additional time, or up until November, to issue a final decision in our first general rate case in a decade in New Hampshire. As you may recall, that Public Service New Hampshire implemented a temporary $28 million rate increase effective July 1st, 2019, that increase will remain in effect until permanent rates are set at the end of this case and any difference between the temporary rates and the permanent rates will be reconciled back to that July timeframe. So, the delay will not affect the earnings over the long-term. In Massachusetts, we agreed to a one-month delay in our NSTAR gas rate case. So the decision is now expected at the end of October, 2020, with rates effective on November 1. Since the transaction for Columbia Gas was announced shortly after our year-end earnings call, we've not had the opportunity to review it with many of you on this call. The key elements of our deal are reflected on slide five. We are acquiring the assets of Columbia Gas of Massachusetts, not any of the liabilities associated with the tragic September 2018 incident in the Meramec Valley. We'll pay $1.1 billion for the net assets and assume none of the company's debt. The $1.1 billion is 1 times rate base. The transaction has received extensive support within Massachusetts and we are highly confident it will close. We believe the transaction is an excellent one for customers, as Columbia Gas customers will now become part of a larger, well-respected local owner. We expect the transaction to be immediately accretive and continue to be accretive over the coming years. As we complete our integration and transition to our -- excuse me, transition to our operating systems at Eversource, as well as, making needed investments in the infrastructure to provide safe and reliable service. We expect to file the application with the Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities shortly. We filed in March with the U.S. Justice Department for review under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Act, and the 30-day waiting period expired a couple of weeks ago. We expect to finance the $1.1 billion initially with a combination of debt and equity issued at Eversource parent. The percentage or the ratio of that financing will be roughly equivalent to the capitalization ratio on Eversource as a whole. The precise timing and size of the equity and debt will depend on market conditions as we go forward. Over time, we expect the new gas company to issue its own debt, most likely in the private market, the same way that NSTAR Gas or Yankee Gas currently raise long-term debt capital. Turning from Columbia Gas to slide six, we raised approximately $1.2 billion of cash in the first quarter. We sold $350 million of 30-year notes at Eversource parent and $400 million of green bonds at NSTAR Electric. Additionally, we closed out the forward element of last year's $1.3 billion block equity deal; we did that in late March, bringing in an additional $420 million in cash, and today, just today, we're closing on $190 million first mortgage bond offering at NSTAR Gas. Now, the new issuance will help repay short-term debt that was incurred went $125 million, 4.46% NSTAR Gas bond matured in January. And the new issuance was at very attractive rates versus that 4.46%. Our cash position is further enhanced by the fact that we have only $25 million of maturities remaining over the balance of the year 2020. Eversource and NSTAR Electric continued to meet their daily liquidity needs very effectively in the commercial paper market, although borrowing rates increased late in the first quarter, rates today are well below those average first quarter levels, which bodes well for short-term debt interest expense going forward. Our capital program remains on track for the year. As you can see in a slide in the appendix, we continue to project capital investment of approximately $3 billion in 2020. In large part because of the very mild winter weather, we had a very strong start for the year, with reliability enhancements and system improvements totaling $600 million in the first quarter of 2020, compared with about $550 million in the same period of 2019. Due to the critical nature of our infrastructure and regulated investments, we have continued to work safely and effectively throughout the stay-at-home requirements in place over our three states. Regulators recognize that some long-term initiatives will need to move forward to ensure that we have a grid capable of serving our customers' increasingly sophisticated needs. A new three-year grid modernization work plan for 2021 through 2023 will be filed in Massachusetts this summer. Just yesterday in Connecticut, Connecticut regulators issued an order requesting proposals on program designs for a number of initiatives related to grid modernization. They include such topics as advanced metering infrastructure, energy storage, and zero-emission vehicles. Proposals are due in -- by the end of July, July 31st. We have included Massachusetts grid modernization expenditures in our five-year forecast, but we have not included grid modernization work in Connecticut in that forecast. So, now let's turn to first quarter results, and that's on slide seven. We earned $1.02 per share in the first quarter of 2020, excluding $0.01 per share of expense related to our acquisition of the assets of Columbia Gas of Massachusetts. In all segments, the higher share count partially diluted the benefits of higher net income. In total, the share dilution for the quarter was $0.04. On so in each segment, let's go through that. Earnings for our electric distribution segment were $0.39 per share compared with earnings of $0.38 per share, a $0.38 per share in the first quarter of 2019. The increase is primarily related to higher distribution revenues, partially offset by dilution and higher depreciation, interest and property tax expense. The transmission segment earnings rose to $0.38 per share in the first quarter of 2020 from $0.37 in 2019. The higher earnings primarily reflect an increased level of investment in our transmission facilities. Earnings from our natural gas segment totaled $0.25 per share in the first quarter of 2020 compared with $0.24 per share in the first quarter of '19. Higher distribution revenues were partially offset by higher O&M and higher depreciation expense. Earnings in our water business were $2.1 million in the first quarter of 2020, up from $0.9 million in the first quarter of '19. Improved results were due to higher revenues from capital-tracking mechanisms and lower depreciation expense in Connecticut. A small first quarter loss at Eversource parent of $0.01 per share in 2020, and that's exclusive of the acquisition charge, compares to a loss of $0.02 per share in the first quarter of '19, and this was due in part to lower interest expense. As you saw in our news release and on Slide 8, we continue to project earnings per share in 2020 of $3.60 to $3.70 and we continue to foresee earnings growth through 2024, around the middle of our 5% to 7% range, based on our regulated core business. Earnings from offshore wind and Columbia Gas of Massachusetts would be incremental to our long-term guidance. Turning to offshore wind in slide nine, there have been a few developments since our year-end call in February. On March 13th, we filed our construction and operations plan, or COP, with the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management for the 704-megawatt Revolution wind project. So, BOEM's review of that project has begun. We expect to have a full schedule for that review later this year. We have not yet received a new schedule from BOEM on its review of the 130-megawatt South Fork project. The COP on that was filed back in 2018 and -- but the process was paused last year so that we could update the project for our new one nautical mile by one nautical mile configuration. We expect the new schedule to be posted by midyear. Additionally, due to travel and meeting restrictions stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic, the administrative law judge overseeing the New York Public Service Commission review of South Fork has extended the near-term schedule, adding another 10 weeks until the state hearings can begin. As a result, [intervenor] [Ph] testimony will be due in early August, and hearings are now to commence at the end of September. As a result of these items and as Orsted said on its call last week, these delays will make it very unlikely that the South Fork project will enter commercial operation by the end of 2020. We continue to have a target filing date on our COP for Sunrise Wind with BOEM in the second half of this year. That timetable may affect -- may be affected by New York's current restrictions on both onshore and offshore survey work. We expect to have more insight into the timing of that cost filing and the schedule for Sunrise by late this summer. Despite these near-term scheduling headwinds, we remain strongly convinced that the opportunities in offshore wind off the Northeast coast are excellent, with 15,000 megawatts likely to be built over the coming years to supply the significant clean energy needs of New England and New York. Our partnership with Orsted has won more than 1,700 megawatts of offshore wind contracts across the region. As any future RFPs are issued, we will continue to evaluate those opportunities and will exhibit the same financial discipline we've demonstrated time and time again for many, many years. We continue to view offshore wind initiatives as a unique and very positive opportunity to provide clean energy and significant economic development stimulus to the region while providing investors for a very attractive long-term earnings and cash flow benefit. Let me emphasize that the earnings from offshore wind are incremental to the 5% to 7% EPS CAGR that we expect on our existing regulated business. Our regulated business model works because of the constructive regulatory environment we operate within and consistently high levels of execution we've achieved. This model is particularly attractive in uncertain times, such as where we are today. I want to emphasize that a critical factor in our success over the past decade has been providing excellent service to our 4 million customers. This is accomplished by having a tremendous team of 8,300 employees who have a singular focus on providing safe and reliable service to our customers and addressing the energy policy imperatives of our region. I'm very proud. I'm very proud of the early aggressive actions we took as a company over the past several months to protect employees, customers and our communities. I'm very grateful for the dedication, innovation and passion our employees have demonstrated as they have continued to work safely and effectively to execute our essential work on behalf of our 4 million customers, and as if the pandemic wasn't enough, they've also been called upon to respond very quickly to two significant storm events that blew through our three states over the last few weeks, and although the pandemic situation remains uncertain, Eversource is very well-positioned to be successful. We remain committed to the care and safety of our employees, our customers, and communities, while we continue to execute the essential services that our customers expect. Most importantly, I wish all of our listeners today and their families of safe and healthy spring, and I look forward to coming out at the back side of this pandemic as soon as practical and seeing you all again. Thanks again for your time. I'll turn the call back over to Jeff for Q&A.
Jeff Kotkin:
And I'm going to turn the call over to Richard, just to remind you how to enter questions. Richard?
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator instructions] And we're standing by for questions.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thank you, Richard. Our first question this morning is from Shar Pourreza from Guggenheim.
Kody Clark:
Hey, it's actually Kody Clark on for Shar. Good morning.
Jeff Kotkin:
Hey, Kody.
Phil Lembo:
Good morning.
Kody Clark:
So, first on the offshore wind solicitation in New York, is that still on track for the second-half of this year, hasn't seen any headwinds given the COVID situation?
Phil Lembo:
I think that's the expectation that's out there, although nothing -- no official schedule has come out, but I think that the direction is clear that that's where the state would like to go but final dates haven't been established yet.
Kody Clark:
Got it, thank you, and then, could you give some color on how you're thinking about any water deals outside of New England? Are you seeing an increase in opportunities given the current macro backdrop?
Phil Lembo:
I think the current macro backdrop really emphasizes the importance of -- to me, the issue of size and scale and the ability of a company to have the financial capabilities to -- for its liquidity, we're able to access capital markets, its ability to respond to storms when you have a pandemic going on. So, certainly, there may be some smaller entities that are out there that may find that it's difficult to move forward in a world like that where there's uncertainty, so that there could be opportunities there. Going forward, there's nothing that is in front of us at this moment, but I can assure you that the water business is a business that we like. The water business is one that we see as very synergistic to our electric and gas businesses and it's one that we think that we can operate very effectively going forward, and whatever comes in front of us, we'll be disciplined about whatever financial characteristics are associated with a deal like that, as well as, making sure that there's benefits for customers. So nothing in front of us right now, but given the situation that's out there, you could see some smaller companies look for a way out.
Kody Clark:
Great, thanks so much. Congrats on the quarter and stay safe.
Phil Lembo:
Thank you. You too.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thanks, Kody. Our next question this morning is from Sophie Karp from KeyBanc. Good morning, Sophie.
Sophie Karp:
Good morning, guys. Congrats on the quarter. Thanks for taking the question.
Phil Lembo:
Thank you, Sophie. I hope you're well.
Sophie Karp:
Yes. I was just curious if you could comment on the volume trend, even though you decoupled, but just to get a sense of what kind of what you've seen in the service sector as far as the economic hurt that's been experienced by the rate peers.
Phil Lembo:
In terms of sales volume trends, is that your question, Sophie?
Sophie Karp:
Yes.
Phil Lembo:
Yes. So I will say that sales in the first quarter were down, both -- you'll see that on the electric side, they were down close to 6% and on the gas side, nearly 14%. And I'd say 95% of those numbers are due to the incredibly mild weather we had in the first quarter. It's nothing to do with rail COVID impacts. We really were only a couple of weeks into COVID in the first quarter. I mean, in the weather in the first quarter in our service territory was -- the heating degree days were the lowest in 50 years. That's five zero. They're about 18% or 19% below the previous year and below normal. We have the longest January in 90 years. There's probably a hundred different statistics that can -- so the one benefit, as I mentioned, was it enabled us to execute very well on our capital plan, but it didn't do much for us in terms of sales. So that's really what we've seen there. I will say kind of going forward, April was actually pretty cool here in our region. So in a strange way, even though it's a shoulder month, I would expect maybe our gas business sales to be up in April despite COVID. I do think what you're going to see is a downward trend or downward pressure on the commercial sales, but where everybody is working at home, probably some upside benefit on the residential sales in the electric business, but as you suggest, folks should keep in mind that well above 90% of our revenues are not associated with sales that decoupled. And so, we have on the distribution side, and certainly, the transmission revenues are not association -- not associated with sales volume. So from a regulatory protection and program standpoint, we're in good shape, but the trends are as I described.
Sophie Karp:
Right. Thank you, helpful color. And then on NSTAR rate case, I'm just curious if it's -- it's been delayed by a month, right? Is that important for you as far as guidance and your projections, that you have those rates in place before the winter season begins, or is that not sort of material enough for guidance? Just how should we think about that in case there are future delays?
Phil Lembo:
Yes. It's not material enough. I mean, we expect that the new rates will be in place, as I mentioned, that there is just a one-month delay and we're optimistic that we'll be hitting that target well ahead of the winter heating season. And really, the winter heating season is just getting started at the end of the year. So we're expecting the order to come out, as we've described, with a one-month delay, but if it didn't, we don't see that as being material to the guidance.
Sophie Karp:
Got it. Terrific, thank you, this is all for me.
Jeff Kotkin:
Great, thank you, Sophie. Our next question is from Mike Weinstein from Credit Suisse. Good morning, Mike.
Mike Weinstein:
Hi. Good morning, guys.
Jeff Kotkin:
Hi.
Phil Lembo:
Good morning.
Mike Weinstein:
And I just wanted to confirm, my understanding is that also wins, even if there are delays, right? That your guidance, your long-term guidance, growth rate is not affected by that, right? The offshore wind has always been additive and incremental and the long-term guidance for EPS growth is really based on just the utilities in isolation. Is that right way to think about it?
Phil Lembo:
That is correct, Mike. Your understanding is absolutely correct. The 5% to 7%, and being in the middle of that range is from our core regulated business, offshore wind is -- would be incremental to that.
Mike Weinstein:
Is there any impact on financing plans? I think you've already issued all the equity in the five-year plan, right? So is there any impact at all in financing plans from any potential delayed projects?
Phil Lembo:
No. If I heard you correctly, I think you may have said we've issued all of the equity from our long-term projections on that. We talked about issuing $2 billion of equity last year. We issued $1.3 billion. So we still had some of equity left over to issue during the remainder of our long-term plan. So, we'll be opportunistic about that and do that when the spending dictates. So, if we're not spending the money, that's going to make an impact on the timing of when we do any kind of financing.
Mike Weinstein:
What's left? Is the ATM plus -- the ATM portion of equity?
Phil Lembo:
Yes. We said that the $1.3 million was the only block equity per se in our forecast, but I do want to be clear that subsequent to that guidance, we did announce the acquisition of Columbia Gas, and we will do equity and debt associated with that transaction.
Mike Weinstein:
Right. And that timing is this year, right, [indiscernible]?
Phil Lembo:
Yes. That timing depends on the market conditions, but yes, this year, we're expecting to close on that transaction later on in the third quarter of 2020.
Mike Weinstein:
Got it. Have you gotten any sense as to any potential changes to grid monetization priorities as a result of COVID? Now that I understand those dockets are going on right now. The one in Connecticut is ongoing, but is there any sense of maybe that priorities might be different currently as a result of the crisis that we're all going through?
Phil Lembo:
No. My personal sense there would be that programs that emphasize social distancing and technology would be even more value to customer and to the grid. So that -- what fits into there could be AMI, obviously, that there's nobody out there even driving around, or you've got much more visibility of the system to its furthest reaches with an AMI-oriented system. That certainly would be a way to improve, I guess, our social distancing, but I don't -- there's nothing -- there's no dramatic changes at this point in terms of the focus on grid mod. AMI has been part of the discussion anyway in Connecticut, and as I mentioned, Connecticut is moving forward, and we should see some program designs and proposals by the end of July time frame.
Mike Weinstein:
Great, Okay, thanks very much.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thanks, Mike. Our next question is from Caroline Bone from Evercore. Good morning, Caroline.
Caroline Bone:
Good morning, guys and thanks for taking my questions. And I also just wanted to say thanks to all of your employees for all of their hard work right now. We're all at really grateful.
Phil Lembo:
Thank you, Caroline. That's very nice of you.
Caroline Bone:
So, my first question is really on Columbia Gas. I was wondering if you could comment on what sort of spending you're anticipating going forward on these assets, and apologies if I missed this earlier in the call, I just want to get a sense of how that impacts your long-term capital plan.
Phil Lembo:
Well, as I said, the -- Columbia is really not in our guidance at this point. So, as we move through the approval process to closing, then we'll include that in our plans going forward, but I would say, if you just look at what we spend in the gas business, on the Yankee Gas or in Massachusetts already on NSTAR Gas, the capital spending programs are somewhat higher than they are currently at Columbia. So I would expect, once we get through our process and all the integration efforts and we put everything all down on paper, that you're likely to see some higher capital spending requirements on that system than is currently historically existed.
Caroline Bone:
Okay.
Phil Lembo:
The other side of it is as we look at integration efforts, we could -- we'll be incorporating some of the, I'd say, corporate service activities into Eversource. So, there could be some savings there, but I would expect on the capital side that the plans would be increasing from the previous plans that -- on a normal run basis of Columbia that they've had in the past.
Caroline Bone:
Okay. That's very helpful. And then my other question is just, do you guys expect these potential delays of the larger offshore wind projects to impact capital cost? Or is it really too early to say at this point?
Phil Lembo:
I'm sorry, Caroline, I didn't catch that.
Caroline Bone:
On the offshore wind, the Sunrise that might be delayed, do you expect that to impact the capital cost for that project?
Phil Lembo:
I didn't talk about Sunrise. I will say that South Fork, and I may have said 2020, I'm not sure, but…
Caroline Bone:
Oh, no. Yes. Okay. Sorry, I thought like I said on the slide, it kind of implied that Sunrise might -- could be delayed as well.
Phil Lembo:
We're going to file the COP in the second half of this year and then a schedule will come out. So that those schedules are not -- dates are not changing. It's South Fork where the commercial operation date, we had expected to be the end of 2022, that given the COVID situation, et cetera, it's unlikely that that will happen at the end of 2022, but no change in the other dates at this time.
Caroline Bone:
Oh, got it. Okay, that's helpful. That's it for me. Thanks so much guys.
Phil Lembo:
Thanks, Caroline. Stay well.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thanks, Caroline. Appreciate it. Next question is from Julian from Bank of America. Good morning, Julian.
Alex Morgan:
It's Alex Morgan calling in for --
Phil Lembo:
Hey, Alex.
Alex Morgan:
Thanks so much for taking my question. Hey, congrats on the results.
Phil Lembo:
Thank you.
Alex Morgan:
My first question is about Connecticut AMI. I know you spent a little bit of time talking about it with the prepared remarks. I was wondering if you could potentially take it a little step further and talk about what the potential time line on this could be and maybe your expectation on the size of the first six of the RFPs.
Phil Lembo:
The -- what we've said in terms of AMI has been that a full rollout of AMI in Connecticut and Massachusetts is about $1 billion. And we have -- and that's electric and gas and we have about the same amount of customers in each state. So even if you assume that that's a 50-50 split on that. So it's a program that would be a significant improvement in terms of visibility to the grid. It would be a significant opportunity for us to better able to manage distributed energy resources on the grid, and it would be, I think, a customer satisfier, and it is part of the -- as you point out, of the ongoing discussions, probably ahead in Connecticut than where it is in Massachusetts right now, although, Massachusetts will likely take up something to do with AMI in the near term. So, in Connecticut, I can't give you any more specific than that other than it is on the agenda. Plans are being formulated and being filed in those first areas of interest for the Connecticut regulator, which are really, advanced metering infrastructure is one of the items, so that, along with energy storage and electric vehicles. So, I think you'll start to see more unfold on that as we get through the summer and into the year.
Alex Morgan:
Okay. Thank you. And my second and last question is just a little more detail on the South Fork offshore wind project. I was wondering if you could talk through maybe some of the almost pros and cons of the project potentially being delayed because of COVID and BOEM. My expectation on the positive side would be you could share vessel CapEx with, potentially, Revolution Wind, but on the negative side, I was wondering how that might impact your contract details with LIPA and if there's any ability for that price to be renegotiated or revisited. And that's it from me. Thank you so much.
Phil Lembo:
Thank you. Thank you for those questions. As you suggest, in terms of their sharing vessel plans and vessel CapEx could be a potential benefit. Also, larger turbine sizes as we move forward could be a potential benefit that would require less poles in the -- to be erected in the ocean. So there could be some benefits there. The contract terms that we have on all of our offshore wind contracts allow us some time to -- because of delays that are caused outside of our control, like at BOEM, or in this case, you've got a pandemic adding to it. So, we feel very comfortable with the provisions that are in the contracts that would enable us to move the dates in a way such that we can still deliver the power according to the term of the contract, and we could see some benefits, as you point out.
Jeff Kotkin:
All right, thank you so much. Thanks, Alex. Our next question this morning is from Neil Kalton from Wells Fargo. Good morning, Neil.
Neil Kalton:
Good morning. Thanks. Two quick questions on offshore. First, I have it in my notes that the plan to make about $300 million to $400 million in investment this year in offshore. Is that correct? And then, should we think about that as being substantially shifted out, given the delays? And then second, any further thoughts about involvement in future offshore lease auctions going forward?
Phil Lembo:
Thanks for those questions, Neil. I hope you're doing well. You're right that in our disclosures and in the 10-K, we talked about our capital program. And then, we also included some guidance that talked about $300 million to $400 million on offshore wind. Certainly, if there are -- it would be -- some of those costs, I would expect, would get shifted out of this year into subsequent years. So, either you could see us be at the lower end of that range at a minimum and maybe potentially under the low end of that range, but those details would be worked out once we move a little forward more forward during the course of the year. So, in terms of future auctions, as you know, there were auctions a year or so ago. That other bidders paid a significant amount of money to acquire above a price that we and Orsted felt was appropriate. So certainly, in New England, or if there are additional opportunities within those New England leased areas, we'd certainly take a look at it, but again, I can't emphasize enough that we would use the same financial discipline that we've always demonstrated in terms of our bidding for those.
Neil Kalton:
So just a quick follow-up, so you said New England. Would you look at New York or no?
Phil Lembo:
Right now, we're focused on the New England leases, Neil.
Neil Kalton:
Right, thank you.
Jeff Kotkin:
Right. Thanks, Neil. Our next question is from Paul Patterson from Glenrock. Good morning, Paul.
Paul Patterson:
Good morning.
Phil Lembo:
Good morning.
Paul Patterson:
Good to hear things are going well for you guys. Listen. So I just -- a lot of questions have been answered. Just sort of if you could give a little more flavor on the bill payment experience you guys have seen in the last month or so in terms of your customers, and if there's any regional or any significant difference between the types of utilities and how people are paying their bills or not.
Phil Lembo:
Sure, Paul. And again, I hope you're doing well. I'd say we -- I feel very good about the regulatory constructs that we have in place in terms of delinquent accounts or delays or bad debts as you might want to call it. We have already in place mechanisms for hardship cases. So, people who fit different medical or income-oriented criteria already fall into kind of these hardships receivable categories. So, across Massachusetts and Connecticut, we have abilities already in place, sort of pre-COVID, to collect on these. So we feel good about that. And as I mentioned, we've had recently in Connecticut, an order coming out that would indicate we should collect all the costs and defer them for future recovery for incremental costs associated with COVID, and we have done some filings in Massachusetts and New Hampshire with sort of similar information in them. So I feel good about the regulatory mechanisms that we have in place. So I do think that each company across the country probably has differences, and I feel very good about what we have in place. In terms of our experience, I'd say that it's still a little early to tell, but we have implemented these long-term rate repayment plans. As I mentioned, in Connecticut, now those plans can go for 24 months, but we've set up -- we're not charging late fees. We're not shedding customers off and we're allowing them to be on flexible payment plans. We have not seen a significant reduction in customer payments. Our customers are doing a good job in terms of paying the bills that are sent out. So we haven't seen a significant deterioration, at least over the last month or so.
Paul Patterson:
Answered too, thanks, again, have a great one.
Phil Lembo:
Thanks, Paul.
Jeff Kotkin:
All right, Paul. Thank you. Next question is from Travis Miller from Morningstar. Good morning, Travis.
Travis Miller:
Hi, how are you?
Jeff Kotkin:
We're good, thank you.
Travis Miller:
I was wondering on that Columbia acquisition, how do you think about financing that $1.1 billion up at the parent level? I know you'll keep the utility structure the same, but how do you think about that at the parent level?
Phil Lembo:
Good morning, Travis. I hope you're doing well. Thank you for your question. The -- how we think about it is to finance the $1.1 billion sort of in line with what the Eversource capital structure is. So, a combination of debt and equity would be issued there. Going forward, as I mentioned that the issuances going forward at that entity would likely be in the private market for debt, similar to how we finance the gas companies now under the Eversource family. So initially, the financing would be at the parent, but that -- just like all of our other franchises, they do their own sort of debt financings and they get their equity capital from the parent. So this will ultimately be no different.
Travis Miller:
Okay. And then, just to be clear on that equity side. So that's $2 billion plan obviously didn't include the Columbia potential equity financing, right? So --
Phil Lembo:
That's correct.
Travis Miller:
So you'd have the Columbia acquisition, equity financing, plus that kind of $700 million, and then, plus anything that you'd want to do on the equity side for the offshore winds whenever material amounts of cash gets spent end of this year or next year. Is that the way I'm thinking about it correctly?
Phil Lembo:
I think you've added one too many pluses in there. So let me clarify that the only thing in our plan is the remainder of the $700 million from the original $2 billion of equity that we announced last year. We executed $1.3 billion of that. We have $700 million and that -- so that's the base plan. And then with the acquisition of Columbia, that would be kind of a 60-40-ish. That's sort of the capital structure now, 60% debt, 40% equity -- let's call it 45-55 is probably the better, more precise, information
Travis Miller:
Okay. And then offshore winds, would you'd be able to fund out of cash flow to the extent that you had any kind of cash on that later this year or early next year?
Phil Lembo:
Yes. It would finance that in our current forecast period, that's correct.
Travis Miller:
Okay, great. Just one quick technical question, on that -- the revenue decoupling you have, is there a difference when you think about and go back to regulators in terms of weather versus COVID-19 impacts? Do those fit in two different buckets in terms of decoupling, or is it just full demand decoupling?
Phil Lembo:
There's no difference in the buckets. It could be for any reason, economic, weather, or otherwise. So, it's full decoupled.
Travis Miller:
Okay, great. Appreciate it. Thank you.
Phil Lembo:
Thank you, Travis.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thanks, Travis. Next question is from Andrew Weisel from Scotia. Good morning, Andrew.
Andrew Weisel:
Hey. Good morning, everyone.
Phil Lembo:
Good morning.
Andrew Weisel:
Just want to clarify some of the stuff you just talked about there. If I remember correctly, the offshore financing plan was -- I'm going to paraphrase here, but the idea was you kind of had one project coming online in gear, the cash flows from revenues from the first would finance the second, and that would sort of trickle forward. My question is, if South Fork is delayed, who knows by how long, is there any kind of a short-term bridge issue where you'll need cash to finance Revolution Wind's construction before South Fork is actually generating revenues?
Phil Lembo:
No, that's not anticipated. If you recall, South Fork is a fairly small in size project. It's 130-ish megawatts versus Revolution Wind being 700 and Sunrise 880. So, the South Fork for project is really sort of the smaller of the cash requirements and smaller of the cash receipts also. So no, we don't see any bridge issue there.
Andrew Weisel:
Okay, great. Then next on the slide showing progress on major transmission projects, slide 12, the Eastern Massachusetts completion date moved forward by a couple of years to 2023 and some smaller delays for a couple of the other ones. Can you just talk about, most of the Eastern Massachusetts one, but also the other ones and what drove those pushing out of the completion dates?
Phil Lembo:
Sure. I'd say, with any of our transmission projects or any -- there's siting things, there's applications. They get moved, there's hearings that switch around. I think that you shouldn't read too much into it other than -- in the Eastern Mass, we had a whole bundle of projects, about 29 of them, right? So 22 of them or so are done, and we have some under construction. In one of those projects, there's been some delay in terms of getting started on the schedule that we want to be on. So it's the normal give and take that you go through in terms of the siting process and the towns and getting the permits and whatnot. So no -- nothing major there, but sometimes projects get delayed, and then, we move other projects forward. So we don't anticipate any significant impact on our transmission plan as a result.
Andrew Weisel:
Okay. Thank you very much and I appreciate all the detail on the downside protection. It's a good time to have all of those tools.
Phil Lembo:
Yes. Thank you, Andrew. Stay well.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thanks, Andrew. There are no more questions in the queue, so we want to thank you so much for joining us this morning, and if you have any follow-ups on this busy day, please send me an email. Take care and be safe.
Phil Lembo:
Thank you, all.
Operator:
And thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Welcome to the Eversource Energy Q4 and Year-end 2019 Results Conference Call. My name is Paulette and I will be your operator for today's call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Jeffrey Kotkin. You may begin.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you, Paulette. Good morning and thank you for joining us. I'm Jeff Kotkin, Eversource Energy's Vice President for Investor Relations. During this call, we'll be referencing slides that we posted last night on our website. And as you can see on slide one, some of the statements made during this investor call may be forward-looking, as defined within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on management’s current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainty, which may cause the actual results to differ materially from forecasts and projections. These factors are set forth in the news release issued yesterday. Additional information about the various factors that may cause actual results to differ can be found in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2018, and our Form 10-Q for the three months ended September 30, 2019. Additionally, our explanation of how and why we use certain non-GAAP measures and how those measures reconcile to GAAP results is contained within our news release and the slides we posted last night and in our most recent 10-K. Speaking today will be Jim Judge, our Chairman, President and CEO; and Phil Lembo, our Executive Vice President and CFO. Also joining us today are; Werner Schweiger, our EVP and Chief Operating Officer; Joe Nolan, our EVP for Strategy and Customer and Corporate Relations; John Moreira our Treasurer and Senior VP for Finance and Regulatory; Jay Buth, our VP and Controller; and Mike Ausere, our VP for Business Development. Now, I will turn to slide two and turn over the call to Jim.
Jim Judge:
Thank you, Jeff, and good morning. Thank you everyone for joining us today for our review of 2019 results and for our updated long-term outlook. I'll start by thanking our 8,300 Eversource Energy colleagues for just a terrific 2019 and for the very bright future we expect for our company and our customers. As you can see on slide four, our investors benefited from a very strong total return of 34.4% in 2019. That return was 860 basis points ahead of our peer index and nearly 300 basis points ahead of the S&P 500 total return in 2019. And as you also can see on this slide our three-year, five-year and 10-year performance has consistently beaten our peer index, as well as the broader market. And as the January 2020 performance comparison shows, we're off to another strong start this year. That constancy of shareholder return is directly related to our solid long-term record of operating performance. On slide five you can see the results of our commitment to continuous improvement in our operating metrics, related to reliability, safety and emergency response. They are in the top-tier of our industry and the top decile of our industry peer group from reliability. That execution and the drive to provide ever-improving service to our 4 million customers here in New England, form the linchpin of our strategy. By excelling at our basic business, we enjoy strong credibility with our regulators and other state and federal policymakers. Our leadership position on energy issues also enhanced by our strategy of being a catalyst for clean energy development in New England and for our efforts to strive for best-in-class governance employment policies, safety programs, energy efficiency support and leadership in our communities. Some of the organizations that have recognized our leadership over the past year are listed on slide six. The credibility generated by our strong operating performance helps us achieve very tangible results, especially in areas such as structuring long-term rate deals in our regulatory jurisdictions or entering new business ventures, such as water and offshore wind. We have a prominent seat at the table, as our business strategy aligns very well with the energy economic and environmental goals of the region. All New England states are targeting at least an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by the year 2050. This is a very ambitious goal, especially given that nearly 50% of those emissions today come from the millions of motor vehicles that cross our thoroughfares daily. In December, we announced that we will support these efforts by setting a goal of making Eversource carbon neutral by 2030. That's the most ambitious goal of any energy utility in the United States. And as you can see on slide seven we have already reduced our carbon emissions by approximately 70% over the past few years, primarily by divesting our fossil generation in New Hampshire. From here, our efforts will focus on the combination of improving the efficiency of our electric grid, further accelerating the replacement of older cast iron and unprotected steel natural gas distribution pipes; changing our fleet to include more hybrid and electric vehicles; and increasing the energy efficiency of our buildings. Setting this aggressive carbon reduction goal makes us more attractive to ESG-focused investors, who now comprise about 10% of the 1,600 domestic and international funds currently invested in Eversource shares. Our clean energy strategy is further enhanced by our partnership with Ørsted to build at least 4,000 megawatts of offshore wind off the coast of Massachusetts. This build-out is incremental to our goal of making our operations carbon neutral by 2030. Slide 8 provides a status report on the 1,714 megawatts we have won thus far through successful bids into Rhode Island, Connecticut and New York RFPs. As you can see on this slide, we have secured approvals of the long-term agreements we have under contract. So clearly, the focus ahead is on siting approvals. This year we expect to file our construction and operations plans for our two large projects with the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management or BOEM. We expect to file Revolution Wind in the first half of 2020 and Sunrise Wind in the second half of the year. Those filings would be consistent with our expectation that Revolution will have its first full year of operation in 2024, and Sunrise will have its first full year of operation in 2025. We continue to target operation of the first and smallest of these three projects South Fork by the end of 2022. We are currently reviewing that schedule in light of BOEM's recent announcement that it will not complete its cumulative impact study on the six tracks of Massachusetts until mid-June. That study is part of the Vineyard Wind application, but will likely encompass all of the tracks. The pricing of most of our PPAs is public and noted on this slide. In December, Congress passed and the President signed legislation extending for one year and increasing over 2019 levels both investment tax credits and production tax credits for construction commencing in 2020. We applaud this extension which supports this rapidly growing industry, and we expect to qualify for 18% tax credits on our three projects. As you know, while we were successful in the New York RFP last year, we were not successful in the Massachusetts RFP or the Connecticut RFP, both of which were awarded in the fall. While the Connecticut pricing is not public, the Massachusetts pricing was made public with the contract filing this month. Like the first Massachusetts RFP in 2018, the pricing in the most recent RFP would not be sufficient for us to earn our targeted mid-teen returns. So, although disappointed, I was comfortable with our bid not being selected. As I have said to both the Ørsted Board and the Eversource Board, we control the two best ocean tracks that BOEM has auctioned off in New England. They are the closest to shore, which you can see on slide 9 and should be the most economic to develop and maintain. Between New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Rhode Island there will likely be at least 15,000 megawatts of contracts available to developers over the coming years. The last thing we would want to do is lock ourselves into contracts for 20 to 25 years that would not allow us to earn our targeted returns, because we bid too aggressively. We consider our sites to be a tremendous competitive advantage, and we'll be disciplined in our bidding. We'll take some additional few years to reach the 4,000 megawatt capacity for our tracks. We are fine with being patient we're preserving our potential returns. In the meantime, all four developers of the tracks of Massachusetts achieved a significant milestone late last year when we committed to BOEM and the coast guard that we would coordinate our development to provide one nautical mile spacing between offshore wind turbines, both East-West and North-South across all parcels creating a grid-like configuration. We believe this is a very positive development in addressing the concerns of both the region's fishermen and the coast guard. In late January, the Coast Guard published a notice for public comment indicating that this one nautical mile by one nautical mile configuration will create adequate spacing for search and rescue operations and would maintain safe ship navigation. Earlier this month, Connecticut Governor, Ned Lamont announced a public-private partnership that will result in up to $157 million being invested in refurbishing the New London State Pier as a staging ground for offshore wind construction. This innovative partnership into which Eversource and Ørsted together will invest a projected $77.5 million, will allow Connecticut to realize significant economic development benefits from this new clean energy source. So, to conclude my offshore wind comments, I want to emphasize what a great opportunity this development is for our region, for our customers and for our company. The area off the Massachusetts coast is perhaps the best place for offshore wind in all of North America, because of the year-round wind speeds, the shallow depth of the waters and the proximity to Southern New England road. I believe our two parcels are the best situated of the six parcels that BOEM has auctioned off and our partner Ørsted is the best and most experienced developer of offshore wind in the world. Perhaps most importantly, offshore wind is in the sweet spot of public policy, providing billions of dollars of economic development benefits to our region and benefiting from widespread support from public policymakers the business community and environmental groups. As a result I could not be more optimistic about the future of our offshore wind business. As a reminder, our offshore wind opportunity is incremental to the solid growth prospects we foresee for our core business. As you can see on slide 10, we have grown earnings per share by approximately 6% on average, since the 2012 merger that created Eversource. We expect to continue to grow earnings per share by 5% to 7% solely through the growth of our core regulated utility business. And that 5% to 7% growth excludes earnings from the two large offshore wind projects that we expect will produce significant additional EPS growth in 2024 and 2025. As shown on slide 11, the key element of our total return profile remains our dividend growth. With our solid earnings growth and conservative payout ratio we consider our dividend to be extremely well supported with a growth trajectory similar to our 5% to 7% EPS growth. Earlier this month, the Eversource Board of Trustees approved a 6.1% increase in our quarterly common dividend. That increase underscores our confidence in our long-term earnings growth and business strategy. Now, I'll turn the call over to Phil.
Phil Lembo:
Thanks, Jim. And today, I'll cover our results for 2019 discuss the earnings guidance for 2020 and the key drivers that support that. I'll provide an update for you on our five-year CapEx plan in our 5% to 7% EPS growth and review the outstanding regulatory items we have pending. I'll also cover briefly what our financing plans are for the year 2020. I'll start with slide 13 and our fourth quarter and full year results for 2019. Our GAAP earnings were $2.81 per share in 2019, including a $0.64 Northern Pass charge we recorded in the second quarter. Excluding that charge we earned $3.45 per share in 2019 compared with earnings of $3.25 per share in 2018. The $3.45 was a 6.2% increase and right at the midpoint of the earnings guidance we provided you a year ago. In the fourth quarter of 2019, we earned $0.76 per share compared with earnings of $0.73 in the fourth quarter of 2018. Now some specifics about the quarter and year. Earnings for our electric distribution segment were $1.59 per share in 2019 compared with $1.44 in 2018. They were $0.28 per share in the fourth quarter of 2019 compared with $0.24 in the fourth quarter of 2018. So both the full year and the fourth quarter results improved primarily as a result of higher distribution revenues. These were partially offset by higher depreciation and operation and maintenance expense. The transmission segment earned a total of $1.43 per share in 2019, excluding the Northern Pass charge compared with $1.34 in 2018. They were $0.36 per share in the fourth quarter of 2019 compared with $0.31 in the fourth quarter of 2018. The higher full year and fourth quarter earnings, primarily reflects an increased level of investments in our transmission facilities. Our transmission rate base ended 2019 at an estimated $7.26 billion compared with $6.75 billion at the end of 2018. Transmission capital expenditures totaled slightly more than $1 billion in 2019 or about 3.5% higher than the year previous. Earnings from our natural gas segment totaled $0.30 per share in 2019 compared with $0.29 in 2018. Fourth quarter earnings were $0.12 per share in 2019 compared with $0.14 in 2018. For the full year, higher revenues were largely offset with higher operations and maintenance costs, depreciation, higher property tax and interest expense. The fourth quarter decline was due to higher O&M and depreciation expense as well as the absence in 2019 of a benefit that we received in 2018 related to our Yankee rate case. Full year earnings from our water distribution segment totaled $0.11 per share in 2019 compared with $0.10 per share in 2018. Fourth quarter earnings in our water distribution business were $0.02 per share in 2019 that's up $0.01 over 2018. Improved results for the quarter were due in part to higher revenues lower interest and operating expense At the parent and others we earned $0.02 per share in 2019 compared with earnings of $0.08 per share in 2018. The decline incurred largely in the fourth quarter when the parent lost $0.02 per share compared with earnings of $0.03 per share in 2018. This was due in part to $0.02 per share gain in 2018 relating to the results of a regulatory decision allowing recovery of certain merger-related costs by Yankee Gas. It also resulted from a higher effective tax rate in 2019 than we had in 2018. Turning to slide 14. Our earnings per share guidance for 2020 is the range of $3.60 to $3.70 per share and this is consistent with our long-term growth rate expectations. The primary drivers of earnings growth are expected to be our continued investment in our transmission system and the positive impacts of our multiyear regulatory plans in place for our electric and natural gas distribution businesses. In the first half of this year, we are implementing an electric distribution base rate adjustments totaling more than $60 million and a natural gas rate adjustment of nearly $16 million. Additionally, I will discuss shortly, we have rate request pending at one of our electric subsidiaries in one of our natural gas distribution companies. Also contributing to earnings growth would be the impact of infrastructure investment tracking mechanisms in place for our electric and natural gas distribution segments. These involve safety programs in pipe replacements in our gas business. Offsetting these benefits are expected increases in depreciation, interest cost and property tax expense. Also we'll have higher share count in 2020 as a result of the equity sale last June and closing it out with the full width by the end of May of this year. From 2020, I'll turn to slide 15 and our long-term capital investment forecast. Over the next five years, we are projecting capital investments of $14.2 billion from our core electric natural gas and water business as well as the supporting information technology and facilities investments. These investments are focused on providing reliable service to our 4 million customers across three states. In our electric transmission segment, we expect to invest approximately $4 billion over the next five years. As a result, by the end of 2023, we expect our regulated transmission rate base to be $9.4 billion. That's approximately $1 billion higher than we had estimated just a year ago. And then we expect the rate base to be at $9.6 billion by the end of the forecast period in 2024. Turning to slide 16. You can see that in just the years 2020 through 2023, our capital investments are expected to be $1.6 billion higher in those time periods than what we had forecast at this time a year ago. This increase is primarily driven by investments in our electric transmission segment. For the years, 2020 through 2023, capital investments in electric transmission are expected to increase by about $1 billion. We have multiple drivers affecting this increased level of spending and they're all related to providing reliable service in supporting our region's clean energy goals. For example, we're increasing the use of drones to better inspect our transmission equipment. High-resolution drone photography is allowing us to identify damage of failing equipment much more effectively and efficiently allowing us to accelerate the replacement of at-risk equipment, before it can cause reliability problems for our customers. In addition to replacing older equipment, we also need to address some notable areas of growth. While overall our electric loads are flat to lower, we are installing additional equipment to address significant customer growth, particularly in pockets of Boston and Cambridge, Southwest, Connecticut and Coastal New Hampshire. We also need to add equipment to better integrate the renewable energy that continues to come online to maintain voltage and reactive capacity. On the electric distribution side, we project investments of approximately $6.1 billion over the next five years. From 2020 through 2023, we project nearly an additional $400 million investment compared to last year's forecast. Our investments are helping to drive the excellent top-tier reliability performance that Jim identified earlier by improving the resiliency and reliability on our systems addressing continued economic growth and at the same time helping to drive our O&M costs out of the system. Much of the increase in our distribution capital program since last year's forecast is driven by substation investments in the growth regions that I mentioned earlier such as Greater Boston. We also continue to invest in the DPU-approved grid modernization program in Massachusetts. You may recall that in late 2017 and in the first half of 2018, the DPU approved $233 million of investments, including $55 million for two battery storage projects, $45 million for electric vehicle infrastructure that connects 3,500 charging points and an additional $133 million for technology enhancements on our distribution system. We had initially expected these investments would be completed over a five-year period but we now expect nearly all the work to be complete in a 3.5 year or less period or by early to mid-2021. Additionally in 2018, the DPU instructed us to file an additional three-year plan by mid-2020 to cover the years 2021 through 2023. In our capital investment forecast, we have included approximately $290 million for that new three-year plan in Massachusetts. There are a few changes in the natural gas and water distribution segments where capital investments more closely resembles the plan we showed you a year ago. The increased investment in our natural gas distribution system during the years 2020 to 2023 is primarily at NSTAR Gas where we have a number of additional resiliency projects plus continued execution of our pipe replacement program. And we have similar work underway at Yankee Gas. At Aquarion on slide 17, we provided you with an updated Aquarion rate base estimate that now reflects the expected sale of certain water facilities around Hingham Massachusetts to the town. We expect the sale to close in the second half of this year and we expect to receive more than $100 million for these facilities, a valuation that was prescribed following a State Court review. More than 90% of Aquarion Water's rate base is located in Connecticut and much of the capital investment over the coming years will come not only from replacing older less reliable pipes, but also from new projects that bring additional water supplies into Southwest Fairfield County where currently summertime irrigation is precious some of you may know about that. More specifics about that extensive work are shown on the slide in the appendix. From what is included in our capital forecast, let's turn to slide 18 and discuss some of the items that are not reflected in the forecast. On the electric distribution side the forecast does not include grid modernization investments in Connecticut or New Hampshire. Connecticut regulators have opened a number of dockets related to grid modernization such as storage and electric vehicle charging infrastructure and are pursuing them aggressively with regular public input sessions. But because those dockets are not yet complete, we have not included any such investments in our plan. Similarly while we have proposed several innovative grid initiatives in New Hampshire, including battery storage project as these initiatives are not yet approved, we have not included any of these investments in our current plans either. We are not reflecting any investment in advanced meter infrastructure or AMI in any state. In Connecticut, there is an active AMI docket now underway as part of its grid modernization review. Massachusetts regulators have indicated that they will open the review of AMI in other customer facing technologies, although no specific time frame has been established at this time. We currently estimate the total investment needed to switch over all of our electric and natural gas customers to AMI in the two states, Connecticut and Massachusetts to be approximately $1 billion. But it's unclear at this time of if or when AMI might be authorized by regulators. We are also evaluating a recent report issued by Dynamic Risk Assessment Systems, the consultants working for Massachusetts DPU to determine if we will need to make any incremental capital expenditures on our Massachusetts gas distribution system. These investments would be needed to meet evolving state safety requirements. No additional investments have been included -- have been identified or included at this time in our forecast. As you can see on slide 19, the level of investment in our plan will produce a rate base CAGR of 6.9% nearly 7% from year-end 2018 through 2024. This rate base growth underscores our high confidence in the core business producing an EPS CAGR of 5% to 7% and as we've said in the past, we believe we will be somewhere around the middle of that range. Earnings from our major offshore wind investments will be incremental to the core business 5% to 7% CAGR. In years when we are not adding any offshore wind, we expect to be solidly in the 5% to 7% range. As Jim said in periods immediately after we bring a large offshore wind project into service, earnings growth is likely to be significantly above the 5% to 7% range. We expect those high-growth periods to be the 12 months after first Revolution Wind and then Sunrise Wind into service. As you know for competitive reasons and because we're still early in the siting process, we have not discussed our expected total investment in these projects. So I will say that we are expecting to invest $300 million to $400 million in the offshore wind business in the year 2020. As we've previously said, we expect to capitalize the projects with a 40% to 45% equity and 55% to 60% debt percentage. That's consistent with our current Eversource capitalization. And as we've said, we continue to expect to earn mid-teens returns on the equity in these projects once operational. As noted on slide 20, core business earnings growth is not just tied to rate base growth in the associated CWIP there are other items. First, some of the regulated segments particularly Massachusetts and New Hampshire distribution earned below their authorized returns in 2018 and we are expecting a significant recovery from these levels going forward. Second, as our highly regarded energy efficiency programs grow so do potential incentives we see -- we receive for doing an exceptional job. Third, we are conservatively modeling nominal O&M to be relatively flat during the five year forecast period compared with 2019 levels. The bottom-line is we're very comfortable that our regulated segments alone will support the 5% to 7% earnings growth and again somewhere in the middle of that range. From our growth rate I'll turn to two active rate cases one in New Hampshire, a public service in New Hampshire; and in Massachusetts at NSTAR Gas. Slide 21 shows the status of these rate cases. On the left-hand side you'll see the PSNH filed a rate case last year seeking a $70 million increase in base distribution rates. Following the settlement with the staff the New Hampshire Public Utility Commission approved a $28 million temporary increase that will remain in effect until the PUC implements a final decision on the permanent rates. We expect that decision in May with an effective date July 1. The New Hampshire PUC process includes the number of days devoted to settlement discussions and the scheduled targets April 7 for the filing of the settlement if we're able to negotiate one. Regardless hearings will take place in April and historically most New Hampshire rate cases have been settled. At NSTAR Gas we filed an application in November of last year to raise distribution rates by $38 million effective October 1, 2020. We also requested a performance-based rate mechanism similar to the one approved for NSTAR Electric in its rate case in late 2017. Such a mechanism would tie rate adjustments in the future to inflation measures in years two through five of a five year plan. We expect this rate case to be fully litigated as was the NSTAR Electric case. Worth noting is that our three largest distribution franchises are currently under multiyear rate plans and we anticipate no new base rate plans for these franchises to be effective before 2022. Turning from the states to the FERC information on slide 22. There's been significant FERC ROE activity since our November earnings call but none of it directly related to our four pending complaints against the ROEs identified by the New England transmission owners. In a recent decision that was quite disappointing to us FERC ruled in November of 2019 that it would abandon two of the four methodologies it had earlier suggested it would use in determining just and reasonable ROEs. Instead it said it would focus solely on discounted cash flow and CAPM mechanisms. Many parties requested reconsideration of that ruling and FERC appears to be considering reviewing its decision in the -- in that MISO case. In the meantime, we continue to book earnings at the same rate at which FERC has ordered us to bill customers. That includes a base ROE of 10.57% with a project cap of 11.74%. We have billed at the same rate since early 2015 and do not expect to change it from FERC rules on the New England case. Turning to slide 23. I'll review the status of our equity issuance. As you may recall we closed immediately on one-third of nearly 18 million shares that were issued and sold in June of 2019. So the issuance at that time was just under six million shares. The remaining nearly 12 million shares was subject to a forward share purchase arrangement. On December 30 we closed on an additional six million shares of the forward and we'll close out the remaining approximately six million shares by the end of May of 2020. Also last year, we used about one million treasury shares to fund our dividend reinvestment and certain employee incentive and retirement plan obligations. We had expected to issue about 1.5 million shares last year. But because of our higher share price we've reduced that rate of issuance. Later in the forecast period, we expect to implement an at-the-market program to address any equity requirements that exist. At this time, we expect to issue approximately $700 million in new equity. This is the same number that we've discussed for over a year now through such mechanism during the forecast period. We'll continue to evaluate our financing needs as we move through the forecast period but we have no additional equity in the forecast. We're very enthused and confident we'll be able to accomplish this ambitious plan we described you this morning. The plan will allow us to fulfill our work on behalf of our customers, while supporting energy policies of our the states which they've adopted. Slide 24 illustrates some of our track records and it illustrates the targets we've set for ourselves over the past eight years and how we've been successful in meeting or beating them, delivering significant benefits to our customers and value to our investors. Thanks again for your time. I'll turn the call back to Jeff.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you, Phil and I'm going to turn the call back to Paulette to remind you how to enter the Q&A.
Operator:
Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you, Paulette. Our first question this morning is from Mike Weinstein from Credit Suisse. Good morning Mike.
Mike Weinstein:
Hi, good morning, guys.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Hi.
Mike Weinstein:
Thanks for taking my call. Can you explain how -- why do you think the bids are coming in so low for Massachusetts offshore wind auctions? And what gives you confidence that you can eventually win further auctions going forward if the bids are coming low?
Jim Judge:
Sure. This is Jim. Hi Mike. The -- we can't sort of rationalize some of the pricing that other bidders have put in there. Obviously, the returns that they expect are lower. It may be an instance where they're trying to buy market share. But if you -- as we talk here today Ørsted and Eversource that joint venture is the largest developer of offshore wind in North America based upon the 1,714 megawatts that we have contracted. So, we see the glass as half full rather than half empty. We've won some bids -- we've won bids that are going to be profitable for us. We will continue to be selective in opportunities. I would say that more so than the other states Massachusetts has clearly been focused on price and price alone whereas other states have looked for other contributions to the state via the economic developments or what have you. So, Massachusetts has clearly shown themselves to be a state that's focused primarily on price and we'll look for opportunities. It's currently over 25,000 megawatts of offshore wind legislated in the Northeast, 15,000 megawatts alone when you look at New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island. And only about a third of that has been contracted for us. So, we're pretty excited about the opportunity here and the timing will fit with our financial discipline making sure that we win bids that are profitable.
Mike Weinstein:
Got you. Thanks. And also do you expect to continue excluding offshore wind earnings from forward earnings growth projections and future updates or do you think you might raise the guidance range at some point maybe next year?
Phil Lembo:
Mike this is Phil. Our current plan is to have our core business growth rate and keep it separate at this stage.
Mike Weinstein:
Got you. One last question here. Can you explain how offshore wind will fall out for the PTC extension? I think initially that was supposed to apply only to onshore projects, but I understand there are some ways that they can be applied to offshore, but I'm -- maybe you can explain that a little bit?
Jay Buth:
Hey Mike, it's Jay Buth. How are you? We -- when we kind of look at this in totality with the portfolio, we do read when we kind of read that language and we talk to some of our advisers we do see an avenue for the PTC extension to be potential for that offshore wind business. We do have some other strategies that we're looking at deploying from a qualification standpoint as well. So, we do feel pretty confident in terms of our qualification realms.
Mike Weinstein:
Got you. I'll get back in the queue. Thank you very much.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
All right. Thanks Mike. Next question is from Insoo Kim from Goldman. Good morning Insoo.
Insoo Kim:
Good morning. Thank you. First regarding financing, how much of the Sunrise Wind construction costs are you assuming would be funded by the initial cash flows from Revolution Wind? And depending on the timing of the permitting and potential delays, at what point would your future equity needs change and the potential magnitude of that?
Phil Lembo:
Well, I'd -- that requires some speculation on my part. I'd say that we're confident with the schedule that we have that we're able to finance our construction programs that we have in place for both our core business as well as the wind development with our cash flows from our business. The cash flows are all fungible. We -- there are flows from the core business and there will be cash generated from revenues or tax benefits from the offshore wind that would be used to help finance the whole portfolio of capital that we have. So as I said, right now looking at the forecast, we have no new equity needs in there rather than to complete what we've already indicated in the past. And we're confident we'll be able to do that.
Insoo Kim:
Understood. And maybe a little bit bigger picture Jim. Obviously, Eversource has benefited from its favorable ESG characteristics, including the strategy on offshore wind. When you just look out longer-term, your portfolio mix, could you just update us a little bit on your thoughts on what the optimal mix is? Whether it's on the offshore renewable front or on the water utilities front or anything else that you may be contemplating?
Jim Judge:
Well, I think we're pretty pleased with sort of our core business. I think we've perceived as an excellent operator, whether you look at electric, gas or water. I do think in the renewable space, we have taken advantage of opportunities to develop utility-scale solar, where we have that opportunity. And obviously offshore wind is a growing opportunity for us as well. I wouldn't say that we have a target mix between each sector. The water sector is -- I continue to believe is something that begs for a sort of roll-up. Unfortunately, when you look at how water utilities trade currently at such a high price, it's hard to make the math work and make it accretive, which has always been our threshold for deals. So we'll look for opportunities to grow the business. We'll be selective and disciplined as we have in the past, but we're pleased with each one of the legs of the store.
Insoo Kim:
Right. Thank you very much.
Jim Judge:
Great.
Jeffrey Kotkin :
Thanks, Insoo. Next question is from Steve Fleishman from Wolfe. Good morning, Steve.
Steve Fleishman:
Yeah. Hi. Good morning. Just a couple of questions related to offshore wind. So could you just maybe give some sense on why the timing delays on the broader impact from BOEM? And also just -- I think there is some opposition to the mile-by-mile configuration. So just could you give a sense on your conviction on getting that approved? And then finally, just how are you feeling about your cost assumptions that you've put into your projects given just the latest view of cost to build the projects and any impact of delays?
Jim Judge:
Okay. Jeff you keep me honest here in terms of the questions. I think the offshore wind one of the things that we're pleased to see was our fit would be a good degree of granularity provided by BOEM with the dates that were provided at the Vineyard Wind proceeding all the way through the record of decision date. I think people realized that delays at Vineyard Wind may have some impact on other developments. We certainly hope that that's minimal. Obviously, the cumulative impact analysis that's due on June 12 will provide some guidance of schedules going forward. Eversource and Ørsted we filed a very robust and complete and high-quality corp filings at South Fork. So I expect that that can help expedite our approval once BOEM has completed their cumulative impact analysis. On the mile-by-mile, while there's still maybe some opposition to that design, there has been sort of a coalition. The coast guard has come out in favor of it. They think that it provides adequate distance for mariners to travel safely and for the fishing community. We think it's -- it basically addresses the primary hesitation or concern that BOEM had when they did stop the Vineyard Wind process. In terms of cost assumptions, we are continuously looking at project construction not only cost, but schedules and opportunities to improve them. I'm happy that the partner that we have Ørsted their track record and the way that I've seen the class develop tend to include some conservatisms and contingencies that look to be appropriate. So we're continuously reviewing and testing those cost assumptions. And right now we're very comfortable that what we see is consistent with the returns that we've provided The Street mid-term -- mid-teen returns on equity.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. Great. Thank you.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thanks Steve. Next question is from Paul Patterson from Glenrock. Good morning, Paul.
Paul Patterson:
Hey, good morning guys. How are you doing?
Jim Judge:
All right.
Paul Patterson:
I wanted to just touch base again on slide 19 and the CWIP number. How do you guys expect that to go? What's your trend expectation with respect to that over this forecast period?
Phil Lembo:
In terms of the CWIP number, Paul?
Paul Patterson:
Yeah.
Phil Lembo:
Yeah, typically that would move up during the forecast period just given our level of construction activities. I don't have a specific rate of increase that, I would give you. But I would say that, we would see that number as increasing during that period.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. And then with respect to the -- just one more thing on the offshore wind. There was this independent evaluator report that came out on Friday in which they discussed the potential for the Mayflower project to be rebid and as being a potential opportunity for you guys. I was looking -- I was just wondering if you guys have any thoughts about that potential or...
Jim Judge:
Well I can't speculate. I think I did see something that suggested that the winning bid was close to the second bid. And some people are making a case that, that winning bid may be a higher risk and should be reassessed. But I don't have any perspective or insight as to what will be done with that.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. And then with respect to transmission there have been several dockets filed at FERC some dealing with ISO New England with respect to competition. There are a number of different cases that are basically kind of the offspring of FERC Order 1000, it seems like in terms of compliance in efforts to -- for cost containment what have you. And I was wondering what your thoughts might be in terms of this apparent effort on the part of FERC to broaden or to reassert this sort of competitive effort with respect to transmission projects?
Jim Judge:
Well I think we've seen ISO respond. They issued an RFP in December to address transmission needs to retirements of Mystic 8 and 9. I think it's expected sometime in 2024. And there's a schedule in the process for a competitive bid to be submitted in March. Eversource and National Grid will be obligated to propose backstop solutions against which qualified business developers can bid. So -- and there is competition in New England with sort of the major projects that's on the line.
Paul Patterson:
Right. But they're talking about things like they immediately need stuff and supplemental projects. And I'm just wondering I mean should we look towards this Mystic 1 that you just mentioned as perhaps being a data point with which to see how this competition thing works out? Or I'm just sort of wondering in general, I mean we don't have any we have these so-called things that came out and what have you. Those types of filings and what have you responses to them. So we're sort of early in the process, but I was just wondering I mean -- if you think this could potentially have any impact on your forecast in terms of transmission investment and what have you?
Jim Judge:
Well I don't think so. I believe that the -- some of the reliability concerns that Phil mentioned in terms of structure replacements that have been identified and more of them were find -- were found with the use of drones identifying vulnerabilities with the federal government's focus on reliability in the transmission system in particular I think you're going to see the incumbents continue to be the one to address particular near-term fixes that need to be -- or upgrades that need to be required by the system.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. And then just back on the grid mod in Connecticut that Phil touched on. I'm sorry if I missed this but what -- when do you think we're going to actually get something out of there? I mean as you mentioned there are several proceedings it's kind of difficult to monitor. When do you think we might actually see some actual sort of concrete proposals or what have you coming out of that?
Phil Lembo:
Yes. So Paul you're right. There's almost a dozen. I think there's actually 11 different dockets that are active and the Connecticut process has been inclusive and they've really stuck to schedule. I mean they've been aggressive in terms of going through the particular topics. But I will admit that I don't have a particular target date not -- one has not been published at this time. But we expect to see something move in the first half of 2020. I don't -- what I've said before I believe to still be true is you're not going to see like one item with all 11 come out. You'll probably see some piecemeal one or two of the 11 move forward in the first half of this year, but I don't have any more specifics on that. Yes, I think the ones that they seem to be interested in battery storage EVs or certainly programs that we have in place already in Massachusetts. And those are in kind of the top of the list at -- in Connecticut right now.
Paul Patterson:
Okay fair enough. Thanks so much.
Phil Lembo:
Thank you, Paul/
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Our next question is from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey good morning team congratulations.
A – Phil Lembo:
So perhaps to keep going a little bit in the same direction this fall here. But turning back to slide 18 talking a little bit and trying to quantify if you will some of these upsides. I know you said specifically AMI was $1 billion still that seems unchanged. Can you talk about a
Phil Lembo:
Yes, Julien this is Phil. In terms of one of the -- following on to Paul's comment, one of the 11 items has to do with AMI in Connecticut and there does seem to be some interest there. And one or the other utilities operating in the state has implemented at least a partial AMI solution that's out there. We've said in the electric and gas in Massachusetts and Connecticut that's about $1 billion. And that likely would be spread over a four-year, five-year time period. You're not going to get all of that spending in at once. So, I'd say that Connecticut is probably ahead of Massachusetts in that regard in terms of at least there's a docket out there and a framework to start looking at. So, that could be something you see in 2020 at least a direction. In terms of Massachusetts, they have indicated and they continue to indicate they want to have more of a generic docket looking at AMI and other customer-facing items, but have not yet set a date for that. I'm not sure if there's one on the drawing board, but I'd say that's probably something that's going to at least kick-off during this year. I don't have any more time line for that. So again, half of our customers are -- it's kind of a 50-50 split between the two. So I mean realistically you'd say half of the $1 billion is in each of the states. In terms of the gas assessments that's come out and we've been asked and all the companies are preparing information now to be responsive to that assessment. So, I would say we should know within a relatively short period of time if there's any incremental spend out of that. And something to keep in mind that I just wanted to remind folks on, it's sort of in our gas filing in Massachusetts we saw that this was coming right? We didn't know what might come out in terms of the spending level, but we knew that this report was out there. So, in the filing that we already have underway in Massachusetts for the gas case, we already have a carve-out tracker sort of a zero in it right now that we're proposing to say look, we don't know what's going to come out, but likely something will and we will have a place for it. So we won't have to wait five years to go back and get our recovery for it. So we planned ahead not knowing exactly what the numbers were or what would happen but we at least have the mechanism lined up there. So, again as you suggest, it's a little bit early to speculate there but there could be some hundreds of millions of dollars between all of these that would be incremental.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. And then just going -- sorry let me to nitpick a little bit further on one of your specific angles here, but this notion of fuel security here, I know you guys have kind of talked broadly about Mystic here but more broadly that seems to highlight some of the acute issues potentially here. We saw some FERC actions very recently. Is that another angle that I know we've kind of alluded to here but I'll leave it open-ended in the Boston area and more broadly when you think about winter?
Jim Judge:
Yes. I'm not -- it is open-ended. I'm not really sure what you're asking about?
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
So what I was getting after is obviously, if Mystic eight and nine go away and in general you have this open question as to enabling the retirements of these urban large-generation sources. Are there opportunities that open themselves and afford themselves sort of in the here-now to backstop or enable these retirements otherwise?
Jim Judge:
I think the -- this is Jim, Julien. The competitive FERC 1,000 solicitation will sort of reveal a number of opportunities that have created to address the challenge of mystic eight and nine going away. So I don't want to speculate on what they might be. We'll see soon enough.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Okay. All right, fair enough. It comes back to that. Understood indeed. Thank you.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Great, thanks so much Julien. Next question is from Travis Miller from Morningstar. Good morning Travis.
Travis Miller:
Good morning. Thank you. Just wondering on -- going back to this transmission and that idea of upside on the transmission as we get out to the 2023, 2024. Wondering if you could characterize the gating factors for a lack of better term that might be coming there? Is there a policy change? Is it FERC change? State change? Wondering what might lead to some of those extra growth projects that are not in the forecast right now?
Jim Judge:
Well, I'll have Phil add on. But one observation I'd make Travis is that Jeff Kotkin is the best IR guy in our industry and that's not me saying that that's all you folks on the phone saying that because he wins the II award every year. And one of the reasons he does is he provides a lot of regularity on our capital spending plans going forward. And there's a long history here of providing a CapEx forecast and he provides it based upon projects that are already in the queue that we're aware of that are in our plan. Obviously, we know more about projects that are in our plan for 2020 than we do for 2025 right now. And so if you look every single year since the merger in 2012, we have updated the CapEx forecast going forward and it has increased and it's – basically because we're more aware of future needs going forward. So there are projects that are out there that we're not aware of right now that will be in the mix. And that's not just transmission but distribution electric and gas and water business as well. I don't know if you want to add to that Phil?
Phil Lembo:
Yes, I'd just add in terms of a couple of categories is I talked about connecting distributed resources to the system. I think we have about 2600 distributed – megawatts of distributed energy resources in our territory now. So as policies progress and as clean energy connections are required. I think that could be a category that expands in that time period. So nothing to put in there yet, but that's certainly a driver. And each year we're spending more on cyber and physical security and things like that so that the ramp-up in that particular category seems to get higher and higher each year. So those might be a couple of categories that could move spending up as you move out in the forecast.
Travis Miller:
Okay. And then just within that are there any large project opportunities that you see – as you look out kind of that five-year trends I think on transmission window. Are there any areas where you'd see hey, this could be a possible large project opportunity, let's call it $400 million $500 million type of thing?
Phil Lembo:
Yes. Right. Actually just the opposite. I'd say our forecast now includes more smaller projects that more bite-size inside the fence. As I said cyber is certainly an issue. I'd say the largest single project that we have now is our Seacoast Reliability Project that we have as a single project. All the other – transmission is really groups of smaller activities that we're doing for reliability and to improve the reliability for our customers. So we don't see any big projects out there.
Travis Miller:
Okay, great. I appreciate the thoughts.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you, Travis. Next question is from Andy Levi from ExodusPoint. Good morning, Andy.
Andy Levi:
Hey, guys. How are you?
Phil Lembo:
Good Andy. How are you?
Andy Levi:
I am doing well. I agree what you say about Jeff.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you, Andy.
Andy Levi:
So just I guess a follow-up from an earlier question. You were – I know this is something that you had commented on Jimmy. So just on the spacing relative to the offshore wind. When do you guys find out what the final outcome of that spacing is? I guess we're what one mile by one mile now is – or is that...
Jim Judge:
Yes, one mile is – and fortunately we were the first ones to agree to go to that design a while ago. And so we're probably further along than others in terms of development of COPs that need to be filed with the BOEM. Again it's to accommodate the shipping and coast guard and fishing interests. The – we do believe the coast guard agrees that it's adequate to address the concerns that they had initially. And we think that will weigh in on BOEM's decision when they evaluate the cumulative impact. All the developers have agreed to the same format that Eversource and Ørsted have committed to earlier. So we'll see how addresses the concerns or questions that BOEM may have and we'll know about that on June 11 or 12.
Andy Levi:
Okay. So in mid-June we'll get the idea of what the final spacing is, or will that be in December?
Jim Judge:
I think June will give you – the expectation is that we'll get a draft – yes from BOEM that will address the cumulative impact of these six leases and provides standards for us to use going forward. That draft EIS ultimately will be finalized by the end of 2020. I think the date that was published through the Vineyard Wind decision was a record of decision December 18, 2020. So June 12 for the draft and December 18 for the final.
Andy Levi:
Okay. And then just on the spacing I guess, I'd been – Ørsted was in New York earlier in the month. So if the spacing right now we're one mile by one mile. But if the spacing got I guess wider, I don't know if that's the right term but if it was 1.25 miles or whatever it is, at what stage does -- not the first two projects but kind of the overall concept of making a large investment as far as for no better way to put it building a factory or building the stuff that you are on land. At what stage does the spacing become too wide? And makes it kind of not as economic or not economical to kind of put all that capital in, because it would take away from, the longer-term growth abilities, of the overall acreage, that you have?
Jim Judge:
Yeah. I think, as I said, the one-by-one should be adequate. One of the mitigating factors, Andy is that, when we began this process. And we talked about 4,000 megawatts we were looking at a technology that was 8-megawatt turbines. And now we're seeing that Ørsted is actually testing here in Massachusetts, some of the 12-megawatt turbines. So, we were forced to have two holes in the water, if you will. It may very well be that it doesn't have larger turbines on them, which would obviously, positively, impact the economics. So, right now, we don't anticipate any need beyond the one-by-one. But we continue to believe that, that will be adequate to provide us the financial results, that we're targeting in.
Andy Levi:
But anything over the one by-one, kind of changes everything?
Jim Judge:
So, I don't know, what changes everything. But we'd certainly, evaluate it. I haven't heard anybody propose, something beyond the one-by-one, other than the discussions about shipping lanes also being...
Andy Levi:
The corridors and things like that?
Jim Judge:
Yeah. Yeah.
Andy Levi:
Okay. So I guess we still have to monitor it. But it does seem that to be the biggest concern that Ørsted had, in kind of the entire process. But I should have this down at lunch so. Okay, thank you guys. [Indiscernible], so I've got to go.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Okay. That's all right. Thanks, Andy. Next question is from Andrew Weisel from Scotia. Good morning, Andrew.
Andrew Weisel:
Hey, Good morning, everyone. A lot of it is already covered of course, but just a quick one on the offshore wind. If we do see some slippage, in the in-service dates related to BOEM or whatever. Do you have a quick and dirty rule of thumb of what, a 1-year delay, would have on earned returns relative to your expectation of mid-teens, whether that's tax credits or more broadly?
Jim Judge:
No. I don't think it sort of reduces our returns. It basically will just delay them. We have factored into our purchase power agreement, flexibility for delays, especially if they're created by regulatory approvals. So, we don't anticipate, major financial consequences of it, although if further delays occur, the earnings profile would shift out from what we're currently planning for 2020 to 2025.
Andrew Weisel:
Got it, okay. And then, just lastly on, O&M. Obviously, you're guiding to flat through the forecast period. Would that be flattish in each year, including 2020, or is there any lumpiness or gradual trajectory?
Jim Judge:
It should be consistent throughout the forecast period, Andrew. No particular lumpiness.
Andrew Weisel:
Okay. So 2020, should be flat with 2019, then?
Jim Judge:
Yeah. Modestly flat, I'd say. In 2019, we had, I think, one of the drivers of O&M being up or really that driver is really kind of a higher level of storms, than we had had the previous year. So, I know you've heard that from other people. Storms sometimes could create lumpiness. But we're not expecting any other known items to be lumpy, during that time period.
Andrew Weisel:
Got it. Thank you very much.
Jim Judge:
All right, thanks Andrew.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Next question we have from Mike Weinstein from Credit Suisse.
Mike Weinstein:
Hi guys. With all the offshore talk I thought I'd switch over to the other water, for a minute. You've owned Aquarion, now for a few years. Can you describe how operating and planning of water system has been more or less difficult, than the electric and gas systems, that you would have? I remember at the time you were the first electric utility and really to buy a water company? And there was, questions about whether that would be easier or more difficult. And then, also now that you have some experience, but you consider looking beyond New England for further water investments, at some point. I know that in the past you haven't but now that you have experience, would you maybe reconsider that?
Jim Judge:
Yeah. I would say that, the water business that we've had for a short period of time that we have, has met or exceeded expectations. I mean, we committed that it would be accretive to earnings the first year. It's a very, very small business obviously but it was. They grew their earnings in the second year. I do -- there is sort of a roll-up strategy within the towns. I think, in the last seven or eight years where we've rolled in 70 or 71 small water entities. But it doesn't move the dial a lot it's relatively small. It's over 50,000 water entities in the state. So -- I'm sorry the country. And so, it doesn't bank for consolidation. As I mentioned earlier, the pricing is so high, that it's tough to justify paying the premiums that it -- would be required. I think that, we have expanded our footprint. And I started many years ago in Boston-Edison. And we are -- we shared pretty well. We knew Massachusetts. When we did the deal that created Eversource. We expanded our footprint into Connecticut and New Hampshire, and then, proven that we're able to accelerate really in terms of our operation and financial results, beyond Massachusetts. Now we're into New York, with offshore wind. And we've had some success there. So, I think, we're less hesitant to move outside of our footprint. And it may very well mean that our water expansion would require us to do that.
Mike Weinstein:
Thank you.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
All right, thanks, Mike. That was the last question in the queue. So we want to thank you all very much, for your time today. If you've got any follow-up questions, please give us a call.
Operator:
Thank you ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. And you may now disconnect.
Operator:
Welcome to the Eversource Energy Q3 2019 Results Conference Call. My name is John and I'll be your operator for today's call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. And now I’ll turn the call over to Jeff Kotkin.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you very much, John. Good morning and thank you for joining us. I'm Jeff Kotkin, Eversource Energy’s Vice President for Investor Relations. During this call, we'll be referencing slides that we posted last night on our website. And as you can see on slide 1, some of the statements made during this investor call may be forward-looking as defined within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on management’s current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainty which may cause the actual results to differ materially from forecasts and projections. These factors are set forth in the news release issued yesterday. Additional information about the various factors that may cause actual results to differ can be found in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2018, and our Form 10-Q for the three months ended June 30, 2019. Additionally, our explanation of how and why we use certain non-GAAP measures is contained within our news release and the slides we posted last night and in our most recent 10-K. Speaking today will be Phil Lembo, our Executive Vice President and CFO. Also joining us today are Leon Olivier, our Executive Vice President for Enterprise Energy Strategy and Business Development; John Moreira, our Treasurer and Senior VP for Finance and Regulatory; and Mike Ausere, our VP for Business Development. Now, I will turn to slide 2 and turn over the call to Phil.
Philip Lembo:
Thank you, Jeff. And today I will cover the third quarter 2019 financial results. I’ll provide an update on our key regulatory dockets. Also, discuss our regions offshore wind development efforts and some recent financing activities we’ve had. We’re $0.98 per share in the quarter compared to $0.91 per share in the third quarter of 2018. Electric Distribution earnings totaled $0.61 per share in the third quarter of 2019 compared with earnings of $0.55 per share in 2018. High distribution revenues which resulted mostly from base rate changes implemented earlier in the year as well as lower operations and maintenance expense were partially offset by higher depreciation and interest expense. Our Electric Transmission segment earned $0.33 per share in the third quarter of 2019 compared with earnings of $0.34 per share in 2018. The decline was primarily due to no longer recognizing AFUDC earnings on the Northern Pass transmission project effective July 1, 2019. Our Natural Gas Distribution segment loss $0.05 per share in the third quarter of 2019 compared with a loss of $0.04 per share in 2018. The decline was expected and was due to the implementation of gradual revenue decoupling at Yankee Gas late last year. As I've discussed on earlier earnings calls, the decoupling boosted revenues in the first quarter but lowered second and third quarter revenues when customer demand is at its lowest. The impact of revenue decoupling in the fourth quarter will be fairly neutral compared to last year. Our Water Distribution segment earned $0.06 per share in the third quarter of 2019 the same as last year as higher revenues and lower depreciation expense were offset by the absence of a small gain on a land sale that we recognized during the third quarter of 2018. Our Parent of Other Segment earned $0.03 per share in the third quarter of 2019 compared with nearly flat results last year. The improvement was largely due to the absence in 2019 of last year's write-off of an investment in Access Northeast natural gas transmission project and certain benefits we recorded in the third quarter of 2018 related to tax reform. Overall, we are in $2.69 per share in the first nine months of the year, excluding Northern Pass charge we discussed last quarter compared with earnings of $2.52 per share in the first nine months of 2018. Excluding the charge, we remain very comfortable with our ability to earn around the midpoint of our $3.40 to $3.50 per share range that we first announced in February. While we continue to experience much higher than normal storm expense, we thus far have been able to offset that impact elsewhere to remain within our guidance, but it's something we'll need to keep an eye on as we close out the year. The midpoint of that guidance range is consistent with our long-term earnings growth rate of 5% to 7%. Moving from our earnings discussion to key operating performance results. Our continued intense focus and emphasis on safety continues to produce strong results, our best ever as a company. Our electric reliability continues to trend very strong with months between interruptions at 22.2 months through September this year versus 17.4 months during the same nine-month period last year. Our reliability continues to be at a level that is among the very best in the industry. Also our ability to respond effectively to weather-related emergency conditions at our systems continues to receive favorable reviews from our customers and policymakers. In late July, we responded to an extensive damage on Cape Cod caused by a rare set of three tornadoes. About three weeks ago, a nor'easter with winds of up to 90 miles an hour also impacted Cape Cod causing significant damage not only in Southeastern Massachusetts but in Eastern Connecticut and Coastal New Hampshire as well. Our crews organized quickly around last month's storms and with the aid of significant outside resources, we restored power to nearly every one of about 475,000 outages in about two days. Another storm on Halloween night resulted in significant tree cause outages up and down the East Coast. That storm caused more than 250,000 customer outages with the worst damage in Connecticut and New Hampshire. Thousands of our employees and outside line and tree workers contributed to a very strong restoration effort. Turning from operations to some regulatory items. Our New Hampshire electric rate review continues through the discovery process with intervenor testimony due next month and a final decision expected in May of next year, 2020. You'll recall that on June 27, regulators approve the settlement we reached with public tilities Commission’s staff and the Office of Consumer Advocate to implement an annualized $28.3 million temporary increase in base rates. The temporary increase was effective July 1 and will remain in effect until permanent rates take effect in the middle of next year. On the rate reviews, I'll turn to slide 3 in PURA’s recent decision in Connecticut's grid modernization docket. In early October, PURA issued an order in which it divided 11 different topics related to grid modernization in two separate dockets, and then, promptly initiated reviews on six of them. So, those six include items such as advanced metering infrastructure or AMI, electric storage and zero emissions vehicles. There will be a second and third round for this docket, which will cover five other topics ranging from resiliency standards to new rate designs. The process for reviewing each topic will include public forums, request for different proposals, hearings leading up to a draft and final decision. Although PURA found these topics to be potentially very beneficial to customers, it’s not yet known when they will result in meaningful investments related to these grid technologies. We will update you on the processes in both Connecticut and Massachusetts as we move forward. While we have not yet included any grid modernization expenditures in our capital forecast for the CL&P in Massachusetts, we expect NTAR Electric to complete the $233 million of investments previously approved by the Department of Public Utilities by the end of next year. An updated grid modernization proposal covering the years 2021 through 2023 is due to the Massachusetts regulator by the middle of next year. Many of you have asked us recently when we’ll provide a comprehensive update on our capital investment plans. So, I'll just say as we've done in each of the past six years we'll provide you with the update when we release our year-end results, which we expect to do in the second half of February. Turning to offshore wind in slide 4. Massachusetts announced the results of its second offshore wind solicitation last week in which Mayflower wind was selected as the winning bidder. Mayflower’s pricing is expected to become public in January when that contract is due to be filed with the state regulators for approval. Based on public statements made to date, we believe that Mayflower bid a price that would not have allowed us to earn the returns that we consider adequate as we did at the same level. In Connecticut, bids were submitted at the end of September following up on a 2,000 megawatt offshore wind authorization that the legislature approved in June. Three parties submitted bids for these 400 megawatts each. We submitted one bid for 400 megawatts and other bids for other levels of capacity. Later this month, we expect the decision on this RFP in Connecticut. In New York, we and Ørsted signed a 25-year contract last month with the New York State Energy Research & Development Authority relating to the supply of 880 megawatts of offshore wind into the New York market. The pricing is disclosed and it is $110.37 cents per megawatt hour flat for 25 years. It was made public when the contract was signed two weeks ago. That pricing and the pricing of the other power purchase agreements we have secured in Connecticut, Rhode Island and Long Islands, each of which is 20 years, will support the mid-teen returns on equity that we expect and that we have been discussing with you on prior earnings call. We expect these returns will significantly exceed those of any of our regulated segments. Several analysts on this call have asked us over the past week or so whether the mid-teen returns are still applicable given Ørsted’s statement last week that it expects unlevered returns across its global portfolio to be in the 7% to 8% range going forward down 50 basis points from its previous range. Ørsted also indicated that for (inaudible) project is now anticipating an average capacity factor 48% rather than 48% to 50% due to new understandings of wind dynamics around large offshore wind farms. Additionally on projects that acquired from deep water, Ørsted indicated that certain transmission cost estimates has increased. As Ørsted’s partner on some of the former deep water projects, we have been jointly developing some of the US cost estimates Ørsted decided. There are several factors that support our continued expectation that we will be able to earn in the mid-teens of these three projects noted on the slide in front of you. First, the transmission cost estimates that we've been assuming this year in our discussions with investors has not changed. They are consistent with Ørsted’s current expectations but are of more recent vintage and higher than the cost estimates available to Ørsted shortly after we closed this deep water acquisition last fall. Also, our assumed returns for offshore wind investments are consistent with Ørsted’s current 7% to 8% range. Just a takeaway here is our guidance remains in place. We expect our offshore wind investments to produce returns on equity in the mid-teens. Our mid-teens ROE expectations are based on our current enterprise-wide capitalization and capacity factors in the 48% to 50% range across our portfolio of wind turbines in the US. We continue to be very encouraged by the bascule knowledge and experience of our partner and by the interactions that we've all had with federal and state regulators. Turning to financing on slide 5. We essentially ramped up our 2019 financing program in the third quarter with nearly $500 million of long-term debt issuances across Connecticut Light and Power, Yankee Gas and NSTAR Gas. We expect to close on a small debt issuance at Aquarion Connecticut before year-end. But that's the only remaining financing in 2019. The decline in interest rates this year is certainly resulting in interest savings not only in the long-term debt issuances shown on this slide but also on our commercial paper borrowings where rates are down by more than 50 basis points compared with the end of 2018. Moreover, interest rate benefits our customers and our shareholders. You recall that we sold 1.3 billion of new common shares in June with about 12 million of the 18 million shares subject to forward sale arrangement that will settle before the end of May 2020. To-date, we have not settled any of the forward sale arrangements. Additionally, as we've discussed earlier in the year, we also expect to utilize approximately $100 million of treasuries – $100 million of treasury shares each year through 2023 to meet our dividend, reinvestment, and employee retirement plan requirements. Through October of this year, we have distributed approximately 900,000 treasury shares to meet those planned requirements at a rate of just under 300,000 shares a quarter. Before I turn the call back over to Jeff, I mean, I just wanted to take a minute, I'm sure you've heard that Lee Olivier recently announced his decision to retire at the end of the year. I want to extend my thanks and appreciation to Lee for a tremendous amount of work he has done for nearly a fifth year utility career to make our company and our industry much better off. After a highly successful career as a senior nuclear officer, Lee arrived at Northeast Utilities nearly two decades ago and led one of the most successful build-outs of an electric transmission system anywhere in the country. He later moved on to the position of Chief Operating Officer at NU, and then at the merged Eversource, before beginning what may be his favorite position, which is overseeing our enterprise-wide strategy and business development efforts. I'm sure, a decade from now, I'm convinced Lee will be known as one of the fathers of a thriving US offshore wind business. Lee and I have worked together for more than 20 years. And so, we’ve the front-end and back-end. He is an outstanding leader and just a wonderful person to work with. All of us wish Lee a wonderful retirement commencing at the end of next month, and I want to thank him for his advice and counsel, and joining us on his last major call. So, thank you, Lee.
Leon Olivier:
Well, thank you very much, Phil. I really appreciate it – appreciate those remarks, and it’s been great to work with you for all of these years.
Philip Lembo:
Thanks.
Leon Olivier:
You're a great leader and a financial engineer yourself. Thank you.
Philip Lembo:
Thanks. Well, I’ll turn the call back over to Jeff.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
All right. Thank you, Phil, and I'm going to turn the call back to John just to remind you how to enter your question. John?
Operator:
Thank you. And now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question this morning is from Mike Weinstein from Credit Suisse.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Good morning, Mike.
Michael Weinstein:
Hey. Good morning. I believe this is quite a move. Congratulations and we're all going to miss you I think. It's been a long time ever since the news projects. That's kind of the earliest thing I remember you famous for.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Well, thank you very much.
Michael Weinstein:
Well, congratulations again.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
You too.
Michael Weinstein:
Hey. My question is about the – I guess the upcoming NSTAR gas filing and what – maybe you could shed some light on what that's going to entail and also whether you think there's going to be any additional work that might be necessary on the gas utilities as a result of the Merrimack Valley incident from last year?
Philip Lembo:
Yes, Mike. This is Phil. We’ll – we notified the department that we would be in soon for filing and we expect to make that filing shortly here in the next days or weeks. So I say the – there is – there are a few nuances to the filing that do address some of the issues that we know of and that could potentially come out of additional work efforts and requirements from the Merrimack Valley incident. So I think you will see, when we do a filing of this in creative ways that we want to address and get ahead on. You know, certainly, you know, cost that would be moving up in terms of safety and engineering, professional engineering requirements that are now in effect that weren't necessarily in effect during our testier period. So, I think you're right that it will be, in some respects, sort of a basic filing, but there will be some creative ways that we can address some of the issues that have come up thus far and provide placeholders for things to come up in the future.
Michael Weinstein:
And then maybe just with that same line of thought, maybe you could just give a broad overview of the categories of updates that might be coming in February? You know, not necessarily the numbers so much.
Philip Lembo:
Well, in categories, it would be the long-term earnings guidance. And as we've done for many years now, we would adjust that moving forward, you know, add a year onto that. So, less year or add a year so that the long-term earnings guidance will have our guidance for the current year period. We’ll give a capital forecast by category, you know, showing, you know, what capital spending looks like over that five-year period. We'll provide, as we’ve talked about, a little bit more detail now that the bids will be all-in and developed and pricing known and probably all public by that time. You know, more information sort of on the offshore wind side of things. And then any current regulatory or other matters we see out there.
Philip Lembo:
Mike, any other questions?
Michael Weinstein:
Yes. Sorry. Just one last question. On the Ørsted, I guess the Ørsted guidance, it sounds like that was – basically what they've been saying is already baked into your mid-teens assumption that that's why there's no change, right? I just want to just confirm I understood that correctly.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Yes, I think it's important, Mike, to just note that I think Ørsted’s updates were to reconcile back to a Capital Markets Day from about a year ago last November. Our guidance is really based on current information, and all of our disclosed items have already been considered in the guidance and expectations. So we continue to be comfortable and provide forecast in the mid-teens on ROEs. And we continue to look at those costs and schedule estimates as we go forward.
Michael Weinstein:
Great. Terrific. Thank you.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
All right. Thanks, Mike.
Operator:
Our next question is from Shahriar Pourreza from Guggenheim. Good morning, Shahriar.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Hey. Good morning, guys. Can you hear me?
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Yes.
Philip Lembo:
Yes, we can hear you.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Okay. Great. Let me just on – just on the rate cases, could we just get a quick update on New Hampshire's proceedings? Is there – I guess is there any opportunity to settle after discovery, how we start a discussion that’s going with them?
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Yes, Shahriar. This is Phil. There's absolutely an opportunity…
Shahriar Pourreza:
Hey, Phil.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
To do that, to settle. In fact, on the official schedule, there's time allocated for settlement conference. So that is really the way that things proceed in New Hampshire. So there is an ability to get to that settlement. And then there is a conclusion. I mentioned in May. That’s in the – on the docket, so I would expect that once we go through all the discovery and all the data (inaudible) that it provides a better basis for having some meaningful settlement discussions.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Got it. And, Phil, you mentioned placeholder items and the NSTAR gasoline. Can you just elaborate on what you will do there?
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Yes. Sure. And this is true for some of our other filing to another states where we might have an approval for a tracker that is approved and had rate case. But there – how much is in that category would have to be defined in a future filing. So for example, we have these safety and reliability filings that are approved trackers, how the recovery works, what the procedures will be. And then periodically, we go in with a plan or this is what the spending will be for the next year or the next few years. We have the same thing like on energy efficiency. We have A, an approved method for collecting it but then we have a plan that goes in each year. So that's what I'm referring to is that our mechanisms would be established and then as resources come up. So you wouldn't have to go back in for a base rate type of filing, you'd have the mechanism there.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Got it. Got it. And then just lastly, I know past discussions seemed to point to potentially getting a CapEx update at EEI not necessarily wrong you plan forward and – but more of a CapEx update around your base business, right. Is that the rationale to not providing update, is it a function because of the New Hampshire case is taking longer than maybe you anticipated, so I'm kind of curious in why not on the base business without having a roll forward, could it seem like maybe past discussions centered on the potential update at EEI?
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Sure. I will maybe make a point there, Shahriar. I – we have never really provided a indication that there would be an update. We've always pointed to the February year-end call as being the time we would do the update. So, what our statements are and what our plans are now are very consistent with what our thinking has been all along but – that we will plan to and we will do an update in February. So, I’m not, just to be clear, we are not changing anything as a result of any proceeding. It's really that's been our plan all along.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Got it. Thanks. And, Lee, congratulations, you're definitely going to be missed.
Leon Olivier:
Well, really, thank you. Thank you very much, Shahriar. It's been – it’s been a lot of fun working with you over the years as well.
Shahriar Pourreza:
We’ll stop to take you out for a nice steak dinner, though…
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Give it a go.
Shahriar Pourreza:
…and Jack.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Give it a go – and Jerry. Why not? Why not?
Shahriar Pourreza:
You got it.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
All right. All right. Thanks. Thanks, Shahriar.
Operator:
Our next question this morning is from Insoo Kim from Goldman Sachs. Good morning, Insoo.
Insoo Kim:
Good morning. I mean, starting with the offshore wind, given your comments on the recent Massachusetts RFP results and the point that maybe the pricing didn’t – wouldn’t have met your return expectations, are you still of the mindset that the future – the current and future bids on future offshore wind projects will try to maintain your 7% to 8% unlevered IRRs or mid-teens ROE assumptions?
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Yes, we are, and that is, that is our plan.
Insoo Kim:
Understood. And appreciating on the Connecticut grid mod side, it’ll pretty probably be a lengthy process of discussing all that various items that you could potentially invest in. And, I think, you've talked in the past about pieces of those and how much that could potentially be, for example, AMI in Connecticut and Massachusetts being a $1 billion opportunity, and as well. But just is there any way to frame what the total opportunity set longer term would be for the Connecticut portion of all these items? I’m assuming And, you know, they won't really be in the base plan when you roll forward the CapEx plan in February.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
That's correct, Insoo. Unless it's something that we have a clear line of sight for, it would not be. And just to be clear, it’s not in our plans now. So, we've always talked about in Connecticut as a potential program that would require investments to modernize the grid into various categories. And in AMI, sort of, we’ve mentioned a number of $1 billion program, and that's really across Massachusetts and Connecticut. So, you know, the number of customers, you know, are fairly consistent across the two states. But you might have different vintages of meters so – But, you know, it's probably 50/50 across the states I think is a good determination of that. But, again, we're – we don't know, you know, what will come out of the proceeding that are going on. We feel that we have effective programs that can address all of the 11 categories that the Connecticut PURA has established and it's good to see sort of in the first six of them, they’re really, you know – half of them or more are already programs that we're working on in other states. So, we feel good about our ability to deliver effectively there. But the timing and how much the will be will be determined going forward.
Insoo Kim:
Understood. And, Lee, congratulations. I know you and I haven't really interacted much given my (inaudible) you to the coverage, but I wish you all the best.
Leon Olivier:
Well, thank you very much. I appreciate it. Good luck to you.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
All right.
Leon Olivier:
Thanks, Insoo.
Operator:
Next question this morning is from Steve Fleishman from Wolfe. Good morning, Steve.
Steve Fleishman:
Hey, good morning and congrats, Lee. Wish you the best.
Leon Olivier:
Thank you, Steve.
Steve Fleishman:
You bet. And so, just maybe a little bit more color on the approvals and just the supplemental study and both timing of that as well as just what are – what is the focus that you've seen so far of that study and just how do you feel about overall timeline then of your projects?
Leon Olivier:
Yes, Steve. This is Lee. I think that the indication that Bowman now given is that they all have a draft of supplemental study in first quarter of next year. And they're looking at the full array of issues as an example. When these leases were let some years ago, they really did not understand the scale or magnitude of the development across all of these areas. And at that time, I think it was just probably a bit of an oversight didn't really understand what the fisheries – actually, how they work, how they fish, whether it's straddlers or crustacean fishermen and so forth. And then, there were issues that have arisen around the layouts and how mariners would be able to access to and from ports in the area, and also with the Coast Guard in terms of how they do their search and rescue organizations. I think all of those are better understood now and those are the kinds of issues that will be factored in into their analysis. I think we – the joint venture and feel very good about that. We’ve consistently in terms of our layouts and arrays have met with and got feedback from fisheries and mariners in the coast guard. So I think our arrays will be laid out as such there will be minimum issues in the industry, the offshore wind industry in the Northeast where our leases are all collaboratively working together to come up with a sub-common arrays and layouts such it will help facilitate the bulk process once they complete their supplemental EIS. And so we don't think there is any delays right now that we can forecast in any of our projects this time.
Steve Fleishman:
Thank you.
Leon Olivier:
You’re welcome.
Operator:
The next question is Praful Mehta from Citi. Good morning, Praful.
Praful Mehta:
Hi, guys, and congratulations, Phil.
Leon Olivier:
Thanks a million, Praful. Appreciate it.
Praful Mehta:
Yes, so I just want to quickly follow up again, unfortunately, offshore wind. Was there a delay right now in the schedule for Revolution Wind? Did that get pushed out a little bit?
Jeffrey Kotkin:
No. With this, it's pretty much on track. I think if there was a delay – because we have not filed – we have not filed our BOEM permit yet. And we expect to file with them in early 2020, probably end of the first quarter at BOEM at which point in time, we’ll have a clear understanding of where BOEM is going to be with their supplemental EIS. So right now I think would be premature to look at the delay in Revolution Wind. So, we're still looking at a commercial operation for Revolution Wind late in 2023.
Praful Mehta:
Got you. And you didn't move out the construction – the start construction. I know it's got pushed hard but it's the same as you had before?
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Yes. It's pretty much the same as we've had before and we won't make any changes. We don't feel there is a need to make any changes until we understand if there is any impact with the supplemental EIS involve.
Praful Mehta:
Got you. And then, just secondly in terms of all these projects and in the context of what Ørsted said, is there any incremental revenue that is assumed as a part of these projects to achieve your IRRs? So, for example, capacity revenue or ancillary services, anything incremental that helps kind of achieve or get to your target returns?
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Well, in the case of Sunrise Wind, there are pricing at $110.37 as predicated both on the energy, receiving energy revenue and capacity revenue inside of that market. And so we feel good about being able to achieve that.
Leon Olivier:
Yes. So, I guess I'd add to that no other really – in the guidance we’ve given it's all based on the pricing that’s under the contract there.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
There is a move afoot here in New England for probably more ancillary kinds of services that was proposing. But that's – right now, it's all in the concept mode. So, we would have to see what happens there.
Praful Mehta:
Got you. And so just to confirm the Sunrise Wind has the capacity revenue component or that's already built into the price that you put here in terms of a final like locked in price?
Leon Olivier:
Yes. That’s built into the price like a locked-in price.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Yes. That's built into the price.
Leon Olivier:
The fixed price.
Praful Mehta:
Okay. Perfect.
Leon Olivier:
It’s built into the fixed price.
Praful Mehta:
Thanks.
Leon Olivier:
Yes.
Praful Mehta:
Got you. Thanks so much, guys.
Leon Olivier:
Thank you.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thanks, Praful.
Operator:
Our next question is from Paul Patterson from Glenrock. Good morning, Paul.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Good morning.
Paul Patterson:
How are you doing?
Jeffrey Kotkin:
All right.
Paul Patterson:
Congratulations, Lee. And I wanted to follow up on just a few quick things. First of all, the Connecticut grid mod proceeding, it seemed like after quite a bit of a delay and a lot of time, they've now come up with a whole bunch of other proceedings, as you guys mentioned on your – on the prepared remarks. Any sense as to how long all this might take? And is there any proceeding or any that the new proceedings that maybe are more of a priority or we should focus on more than the others? I mean, it just seems like quite a bit to cover if you thought what I’m saying.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Yes. So, I think, Paul, this is Phil, that you’re right. There's – there was a lot of time, but recall that the Connecticut PURA, there was a new Chair of the PURA. So, certainly, in that transition, the Chair of any authority wants to, to set a direction and have some influence over the proceedings. So, it probably shouldn't have been unexpected that it would be some modifications or time frame schedule that came out with – after the new Chair was appointed. But – so, I think, the way you could look at it is they set up 11 different topics and, if you were me, I’d look at the first six that they’ve done, right? So, the first – the first six focus on AMI, storage, electric vehicles, some technologies, if there’s any change needed in interconnections, etcetera. So, the first one is I would think of the most critical and the most priority to the chair. And we have done work in every one of those areas in multiple states so we think we already have good plans and good proposals that we’d be ready to move forward with. So, that’s kicking off right now. In terms of what the exact schedule will be, that is still to be determined. But the first – what happens next in the first half of 2020 there's another set of three and then there's two more to happen sort of after that. So, just sort of the staging of the topics I think gives some indication of which ones would be the most important. But how those – what the time frame would be for a conclusion, I don't expect that we have any meaningful if there were investments to be made I think it’d be beyond 2020. You’d probably at best have the first set completed in 2020 with decisions made and then programs set up for possibly some spending in 2020 and then beyond that. So, I think that's the time frame we're looking at.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. And then, there's also been some press coverage of, I guess, some proceeding in Connecticut on affordability and service terminations and what have you. And from what I can see, it seems like this is mostly associated sort of identifying people at risk for first service cutoffs. But is there anything else we should be thinking about with respect to this I mean or is that sort of what the focus is? Is there any other element of that or is there anything you'd like to add about it in terms of how that is unfolding, I guess?
Jeffrey Kotkin:
So I think what you're referring to is – it’s separate from this proceeding for PURA that is going on.
Paul Patterson:
Yes, yes. I didn’t mean to suggest this part of the stuff.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Yes. No. I don't know. No. There's no bigger agenda here for affordability. I think just affordability is on everybody's radar screen and we want to make sure that we deliver quality products at a price that is affordable for customers and that's what we do. That's how we design our rate. So there's really no specific agenda for that category yet and that will be decided as we move through.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. Awesome. Thanks so much.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you, Paul.
Operator:
Our next question is from Julien from Bank of America. Good morning, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey. Good morning, Phil. Thank you. So perhaps when could you file the proposal in Connecticut just to follow up on Paul's question here? Can you – well are an open ended just with respect again the timeline you guys have articulated here?
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Yes. I'd say for the first quarter – April would be a time frame for the first set of items.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. And then still sort of broadly thinking the same time line to start and spend in kind of a year plus?
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Yes. As I said, I would expect that you'd have some decision in 2020 and you could have some spending in later 2020 for any of these programs into 2021 and beyond.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Right. Okay. Excellent. And then perhaps clean up here, apologies if I missed this, but commentary about how you think about expansion on gas and acquisitions on that front or more broadly acquisition strategy. I know that there's been some degree of media attention on this, perhaps it died down, but just want to come back just sort of the core thought process here. Just basically in Mass.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Yes. No. We did not – we hadn’t mentioned – we didn’t mention I think so you didn’t miss anything, Julien. And I think that we are focused on our core business and running our core business in an effective way. We've been able to deliver that core business growth and affordability and performance in a way that meets our customers and regulatory requirements. We've been able to do that and deliver in the middle of the 5% to 7% growth rate out of our core business. So, we’re focused on managing those core assets in an effective way and working effectively on our offshore wind business. So, that’s what we’re focused on. We certainly have enough on our plate to work on there. So – and that would be our continued focus going forward.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. Sorry. One more cleanup item if you don’t mind. With respect to earnings recognition of tax credits, obviously, another quarter, getting a little bit closer and hoping getting some clarity here, how do you think about that contributing especially given the very specific time line you articulated already for the in-service of all these different projects how do you think about the cadence of that and how do you think about that contributing to the long-term earnings CAGR or the consistency of long-term earnings sort of ex these credits?
Jeffrey Kotkin:
I think our long-term earnings will continue to be primarily driven by our core business and I think you’ll see that our core business really is the driver for the 5% to 7% growth rate. And as we've said that the niche projects come in to service, the offshore wind projects come into service in 2024 in terms of contributing to earnings. And beyond that, our growth rate will improve and increase.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. Okay. Fair enough. I'll leave it there. Thank you, guys.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
All right. Thanks, Julien.
Operator:
Our next question is from Sophie Karp from KeyBanc. Good morning, Sophie.
Sophie Karp:
Good morning, guys. Congrats on the quarter.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you.
Sophie Karp:
Got a question I wanted to follow up on Connecticut. It just seems to me, from looking at your slides, that they're kind of doing AMI and all this fun stuff first and then redesign later after all of that. So, is that the accurate read of the sequence of events here? And if so, is there any rate design changes that should be critical for the proposals that they're considering or can your existing rate design accommodate all of it or do you need any changes like what is your wish list there?
Jeffrey Kotkin:
No. I think you're reading that correctly, Sophie, that sort of the later topics for some future period of time would include, you know, rate designs, etcetera. So, we don’t feel that there's any specific major, you know, changes in terms of rate design that would, you know, be impacted by any of the other categories that we're working on. There certainly would be no volumes impact, you know, for that. But, you know, I think we were able to – there may be some minor – you know, there may have to be a tracker or there may have to be some other category, but, you know, in terms of major rate design, you’re right that anything on that front would be, you know, later topics for discussion.
Sophie Karp:
But just to be clear, you wouldn't be deploying any incremental capital until you're clear on their rate design and maybe additional trackers or things like that?
Jeffrey Kotkin:
No. No. That’s not clear. We’re able to with our current rates and our current design be able to implement any of the categories that is currently under review. So we do have trackers. We do have sort of placeholders for future grid modernization items just to slide in there. So, no, we would not need to go through a rate design proceeding to be able to implement these items from the first wave.
Sophie Karp:
Got it. All right. Thank you. That’s all I had.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
All right. Thanks, Sophie.
Operator:
Next question is from Travis Miller from Morningstar. Good morning, Travis.
Travis Miller:
Good morning. Thank you. I just wonder if you could give a quick update on the water business developments there, what you're looking at over the next kind of 9 to 12 months, and then related to that acquisition rollup, small acquisition opportunities.
Philip Lembo:
Hi, Travis. How are you doing? This is Phil. I will start off by saying we're very pleased with the performance of our water business. It’s ahead of where we thought it would be at this time when Aquarion was brought into the Eversource family. We continue to look for opportunities to learn from each other and implement best practice or integration efforts there to improve operations on both sides of the ledger. We're looking at and continue to look at opportunities to grow that business in a financially disciplined way. And as opportunities present themselves, we will take a look at them. So there’s nothing different to that strategy. We continue to look for opportunities whether it be a opportunity that has more customers of the smaller acquisitions, of roll-ups, we'll continue to evaluate them.
Travis Miller:
Okay. Any regulatory – major regulatory issues or stuff you see going down the line here in the next again kind of 9 to 12 months?
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Are you referring to in the water business?
Travis Miller:
In the water business. Yes.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
No. No. Nothing that we see on the horizon in that time period. That’s correct.
Travis Miller:
Okay. And then just real quick, you answered most of my offshore wind questions. But wondering on those contracts either the New York one or the other ones you've had, how much flexibility if any is in that pricing, and are there any clauses in terms of buyouts or adjustments or contract cancellations or anything along those lines of say costs got out of line or there were timing delays stuff like that?
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Yes. I think you can assume that this is just standard contract revisions in terms of commitments to pricing and then standard commitments in terms of getting projects and service, but there are certainly opportunities within a reasonable range of these changes in dates and all that. That's all provided for already in the contracts.
Travis Miller:
Okay. Great. Thanks a lot.
Operator:
Thank you, Travis. Our next question is from Andrew Weisel from Scotia. Good morning, Andrew.
Andrew Weisel:
Hey. Good morning, everyone. I am basically all set. Just one follow-up I guess since you have me in here. The comment you made about lower returns and you would have been comfortable with the answer to a prior question for offshore wind that is. How would you think going forward about that trade-offs? If pricing continues to decline perhaps faster than your costs, would you be will – more willing to sacrifice a little bit of the returns or a little bit of the volume of projects won? How do you think of that tradeoffs?
Jeffrey Kotkin:
I think some of the – some of it is speculation of what might happen in the future. But I would say that our (inaudible) is that we want to maintain our return levels going forward in that business. So we'll look for opportunities to maintain and participate in auctions or RFPs in a way that we can compete effectively and that competition allows us to maintain a mid-teens level of returns for our shareholders.
Travis Miller:
Okay. So it would be to be mid-teens, it wouldn't mean – it has to be more than a certain level above your regulated distribution returns, right?
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Yes.
Travis Miller:
I could say.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Yes. That is correct.
Travis Miller:
Okay. Thank you.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
All right. Thank you, Andrew.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
That's the end of the queue for today. So we want to thank you all for joining us. We look forward to seeing most of folks on the call at the EEI Conference starting on Sunday. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. That concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating and you may now disconnect.
Operator:
Welcome to the Eversource Energy Second Quarter 2019 Results Conference Call. My name is Paulette, and I will be your operator for today's call. [Operator Instructions]. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Jeffrey Kotkin. You may begin.
James Judge:
Thank you, Paulette. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. I'm Jeff Kotkin, Eversource Energy's VP for Investor Relations. During this call, we'll be referencing slides that we posted last night on our website. And as you can see on Slide 1, some of the statements made during this investor call may be forward-looking as defined within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risk and uncertainty, which may cause the actual results to differ materially from forecasts and projections. These factors are set forth in the news release issued yesterday. Additional information about the various factors that may cause actual results to differ can be found in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2018, and our Form 10-Q for the 3 months ended March 31, 2019. Additionally, our explanation of how and why we use certain non-GAAP measures is contained within our news release and the slides that we posted last night and in our most recent 10-K. Speaking today will be Phil Lembo, our Executive Vice President and CFO. Also joining us today are Werner Schweiger, our Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer; John Moreira, our Treasurer and Senior Vice President for Finance and Regulatory; Jay Buth, our VP and Controller; and Mike Ausere, our VP for Business Development. Now I will turn to Slide 2 and turnover the call to Phil.
Philip Lembo:
Thank you, Jeff, and today I'm going to cover our second quarter 2019 financial results, provide an update on key regulatory dockets, review our financing activity and discuss several developments concerning our region support for offshore wind development. So starting with the quarter on Slide 2, you can see that we recorded an after-tax impairment charge of approximately $205 million in the quarter relating to our Northern Pass Transmission Project. It was driven by an adverse ruling we received on the July 19 from the New Hampshire Supreme Court. The court upheld last year's rejection on a permit for Northern Pass that was issued by the New Hampshire Site Evaluation Committee. Although we've received the vast majority of permits we need to build Northern Pass, the New Hampshire Site Evaluation Committee approval was critical to moving the project ahead. While we continue to consider Northern Pass a very beneficial project for both New Hampshire and all of New England, for both an economic as well as an environmental perspective. We see no near-term path for the project's success and have no plans to pursue it further. Excluding Northern Pass charge, we are at $0.74 per share for the quarter compared with earnings of $0.76 in the second quarter of 2018. Transmission earnings totaled $0.37 per share in the second quarter of 2019 and excluding the Northern Pass impairment, compared with earnings of $0.35 in the same period of 2018. The improvement was due to the increased level of transmission facilities in our rate base. In the first half of 2019, transmission capital expenditures at our 3 electric utilities totaled $447 million, and we continue to forecast core utility transmission investments of nearly $1 billion for the full year. Our electric distribution segment earned $0.33 per share in the second quarter of '19 compared with earnings of $0.32 in the second quarter in '18. Previously approved rate increases at Connecticut Light & Power and NSTAR Electric were mostly offset by higher operations and maintenance and depreciation expense. Also second quarter 2019 results were down by about $0.01 per share due to the divestiture of our New Hampshire generating facilities in 2018. Our natural gas distribution segment had a small loss in the second quarter of '19, compared with earnings of $0.02 in the second quarter of 2018. The decrease was primarily related to the implementation of revenue decoupling in 2019 as well as modestly higher O&M cost. As I mentioned during our first quarter earnings call, the implementation of decoupling as a result of the Yankee Gas settlement last year boosted Yankee Gas results in the first quarter heating period by about $0.03. But it would be slightly negative to neutral in other quarters compared to 2018, and as we expected, we saw a $0.02 negative impact from the implementation of the new seasonal decoupling mechanism in the second quarter and expect another $0.02 negative impact in the third quarter, but a positive pickup in the fourth quarter. In our water distribution segment, earnings were up by about $800,000 in the second quarter of 2019 compared with the same period in 2018, and totaled $0.02 per share. The higher earnings primarily reflected recovery of increased level of investment in the Aquarion system in the outcome of our Massachusetts rate review last year. And a continued focus on realizing operational cost efficiencies throughout the organization. Our parent and other segment earned $0.02 per share in the second quarter of '19 compared with earnings of $0.05 per share in the second quarter of '18. The decline was due in part to higher interest expense. We had a comparable results in the second quarter of both 2019 and '18 relating to the marking to market of our investment in certain renewable energy facilities. Overall, we earned $1.71 per share in the first half of '19, improving the Northern Pass impairment charge, compared with earnings of $1.61 per share in the first half of 2018. That's a 6.2% increase. Excluding the charge, we remain on target to earn between $3.40 and $3.50 per share for the year, which is consistent with our long-term earnings growth rate of 5% to 7%, which we are also reaffirming today. Moving from our earnings discussion to key operating performance results. Our continued intense focus on safety continues to show strong results. Our record is among the best in the industry this year with our safety rate commonly known as days away restricted time at about 0.6 through June. Our electric reliability continues to trend very strong with months between interactions performance at the very highest levels amongst industry peers. Overall, we are very pleased with our operating performance metrics for the year. Turning to recent regulatory activity. On June 27, New Hampshire regulators approved a settlement, which had been reached with the Public Utilities Commission staff in the office of consumer advocate to implement a $28.3 billion temporary increase in annualized public service in New Hampshire base distribution rates. The temporary increase will go into rates for customers on August 1 and will remain in effect until permanent rates take effect in the middle of the year, next year. Our application for a permanent rate increase was filed in late May and request a $70 million annualized increase in base rates, which incorporates our temporary rate request. Also in New Hampshire, as you can see on Slide 3, it refers to the 1.7-megawatt battery storage project in Westmoreland, New Hampshire, a rural heavily tree group that our radio distribution circuit must follow to serve growth. The $7 million battery project provides a cost-effective alternative to a new distribution line. We've discussed in the past, we've already started with 2 battery storage projects that were approved in Massachusetts, the Outer Cape and Martha's Marcus Vineyard projects represent $55 million of investment, 30 megawatts of capacity and 58-megawatt hours of supply. Local stakeholders have been very supportive of the projects, and we expect to receive all necessary land use permits by the end of the year. These projects will increase reliability and in the case of the Vineyard, significantly reduce dependence on high cost and high emissions diesel generation. We expect to have both projects in operation before the end of next year. In Connecticut, we continue to wait peers' decision on this great modernization docket. In addition to Advanced Metering Infrastructure or AMI, we expect that decision to provide us with guidance from peer on the types of investments to be pursued as well as the regulatory construct for renewing such investments. We already have been evaluating a number of potential CL&P battery storage projects for consideration pending peers' decision on the grid mod docket. In the recently completed session of the Connecticut legislature, lawmakers clarified existing statutes to explicitly allow regulated utilities to participate in the ownership and construction of energy storage facilities that can be shown to benefit customers. With respect to our Massachusetts Electric Vehicle Charging Station program, we are on pace to complete our $45 million capital program that supports above 3,500 charging ports by the end of next year. We currently have more than 1,000 charging points on the contract and are on track to have secured commitments by the -- by year-end for nearly another 1,000 charging ports. A few weeks ago, we announced that some of the charging ports would be located at 7 Mass Audubon Wildlife Sanctuaries in the state. We are poised to propose a similar Electric Vehicle Charging program in Connecticut pending guidance from regulators on a broader review of grid mod. In New Hampshire, we are working with state agencies and the state other utilities to develop a public private partnership that would leverage publicly available funds with utility infrastructure investment to set up a fast charging carter in the state. Turning to financing on Slide 4. We had a very significant level of financing activity in the second quarter. On June 4, we closed on the sale of approximately $1.3 billion of new common equity, the price per share was $72.50. The sale included a forward-sale arrangement that delays issuance of about 12 million of those nearly 18 million shares. The forward sale will settle on or before May 29 of 2020. We're thrilled with the investors response to the offerings, more than 60 institutional investors participated and demand for the shares was about 3.5x the supply. We're also pleased with -- the price performance since then has performed very well immediately and for the longer term asset we offer. We expect the sales to be the only block issuance for Eversource shares during our 5-year forecast period. We expect to issue another $700 million of shares through an at-the-market program later in the forecast period as our funding needs develop. This would complete the $2 billion of new equity through 2023 that we first discussed during our February earnings call. As we discussed earlier, we also expect to utilize approximately $100 million of treasury shares each year through 2023 to meet our dividend reinvestment and employee retirement plan requirements. Through July, we distributed about 750,000 treasury shares this year to meet those planned requirements. I will cover our recent offshore wind RfP award in New York later, but I believe it's important to state here that we do not expect to issue additional blocks of equity like we did back in May even after considering the 880-megawatt award in New York. Should there be any future equity need beyond the current forecast period, we expect it to be minor given the significant cash flows that we expect from the South Fork and Revolution Wind projects as they enter service beginning in 2022. And it would most likely be satisfied through a small at-the-market issuance program if needed. On the long-term debt side, NSTAR Electric issued its first green bond in May, starting at $400 million of senior unsecured notes with a coupon of 3.25%. It was the tightest spread ever on an unsecured green bond in our industry and attracted some new investors to Eversource and a strong very sustainable investment profile. We had about 90 investors on the informal call interested just shortly before the issuance. While we are very pleased with the investor interest in our recent equity and debt issuances, we're also very disappointed with S&P's rating action last week concerning the Eversource system. We believe the combination of our robust financial profile; industry-leading cost management; strong operating history; our positive regulatory environment, which includes multiple multiyear settlements; and diverse regulatory jurisdiction exposure should have allowed us to preserve our previous ratings or at least limited any downgrades. Nonetheless, there are no electric utility holding company peers with higher ratings than Eversource at S&P, and we expect to continue to be able to finance at very favorable levels that will continue to benefit our customers. From financing, I'll turn it to offshore wind and on Slide 5. On July 18, New York governed Andrew Cuomo announced nearly 1,700 megawatts of offshore wind awards including 880 megawatts to Sunrise Wind, a partnership between Eversource and Orsted. 1,700 megawatts represented the largest offshore wind award to date in the United States and major first step in reaching New York's target of 9,000 megawatts by 2035. We are targeting an in-service date for our facilities of 2024, and we signed a memorandum of understanding with Con Ed and the New York Power Authority to work together on certain transmission facilities relating to our winning bid. We expect to complete negotiations with the state on a contract for the project within a few months, and as you can see from the slide, this is our second successful bid that we've made in New York with South Fork being the first and most advanced. This slide provides you with a summary of where we won contracts to date, where we are in the several siting process and when do we expect the facilities to enter service. In Rhode Island, the PUC issued its written decision in June approving 400-megawatt contract that's part of our Revolution Wind project. A contract for a separate 200 megawatts of offshore wind from Revolution was previously approved by Connecticut regulators and a contract for another 104 megawatts is now before PURA. In terms of future RFPs, I'll turn it to Slide 6. In Connecticut, Governor Lamont signed a bill on June 7 that authorized the state to procure another 2,000 megawatts of offshore wind by 2030, with an RFP for 400 megawatts starting within 2 weeks of the governor's signature. Preparation for the RFP is now underway and bids expected to be due in late September and awards in November. In Massachusetts, the state issued the Commonwealth second offshore wind RFP in May, requesting bids for at least 400 megawatts of offshore wind. But as they did in the first RFP, they said bidders can also offer up to 800 megawatts as little as 200 megawatts of offshore wind. We are currently evaluating the investment profile and time line for both the Connecticut and Massachusetts RFPs in order to develop and refine appropriate bid strategies. We continue to view our partnership with your Orsted, it's a terrific combination of 2 highly performing organizations that view risks, financial return thresholds and operating excellence similarly. Orsted is the largest and most successful developer of offshore wind in the world, renewing the largest utility with strong stakeholder relationships and the deepest knowledge of the region's bulk power delivery system and one of the industry's strongest financial profiles. This combination of attributes continues to make us very competitive in the region, offshore winds, solicitations. We continue to expect our offshore wind partnership will provide a significant source of earnings and cash flow growth as the offshore wind turbines enter service beginning in late 2022. We expect that the awards we have won will continue to enhance our current 5-year earnings growth profile as we move into 2024 and beyond. As we've noted previously, there likely will be increases in competition for future offshore wind solicitations in New England and New York. We do not expect to win all of the state solicitations that are ahead, but when we do need to win we are confident that it will be with a disciplined bid that will allow us to achieve returns that are well above those in our regulated business and commensurate with the profile of offshore wind business model. That concludes my comments, and now I'll turn the call back to Jeff.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
And I'm going to turn the call over to Paulette just to remind you how to ask questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. I'll now turn the call back to Jeffrey Kotkin.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you, Paulette. Our first question this morning is from Mike Weinstein from Crédit Suisse.
Michael Weinstein:
How much of the offshore wind -- I guess, at this point, is everything that has been announced already in the -- expected to be in that guidance range you've already put out there? Or is any of this now above where your guidance is?
Philip Lembo:
Mike, this is Phil. Our current guidance of 5% to 7% range goes through to 2023, so as I've said before, when you get to 2023 we'll really only be South Fork, which will be fully in-service for year and then Revolution Wind will be coming in during the year. So those projects are baked into the guidance that we have. The Sunrise Wind will come in beyond what our current guidance period is, and we will pick that up when we update our guidance on our year-end earnings call.
Michael Weinstein :
And what kind of returns are you expecting in these investments at this point?
Philip Lembo:
What we stated is that on a unlevered basis, Orsted has publicly stated that they target and we would support sort of an unlevered return of about 8% that translates into a midteens ROE if you are in the Eversource world.
Michael Weinstein :
Got you. And also has -- the rating agency action on the downgrade, does that have any material effect on your earnings guidance going forward?
Philip Lembo:
No, it doesn't, Mike.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thanks, Mike. Next question is from Sophie Karp from KeyBanc.
Sophie Karp:
Just wanted to ask you philosophically, what is your appetite for a project similar to NTP and maybe scale and complexity outside of the offshore wind where obviously, you're participating. So how do you think about that going forward?
Philip Lembo:
Well, Sophie, welcome to the Eversource call. Good to hear your voice. So our region has aggressive targets for carbon reduction and a strong appetite for Clean Energy Solutions. So there is nothing on the drawing board that we see right now other than the offshore wind opportunities that we're involved with, but I'm certain that in the future as the regions need change and as more Clean Energy requirements come into play that other projects could develop, but right now, there is nothing in our plan and nothing in the drawing board for the region that's not already been announced out there.
Sophie Karp:
Got it. And then on the offshore wind, obviously, there has been headlines about the issues that [indiscernible] having with that permitting from the federal level. What are your thoughts on that? And obviously, you've given yourself way more time to deal with that as far as the time line goes, but generally if you could just give us some color or thoughts on how you expect the permitting process to shape up?
Philip Lembo:
Sure, not knowing specifically what their situation is, the details would be in their court, but really from Eversource and Eversource-Orsted side, we recognize how important sighting and permitting is for the success of this project, and we are focused in our sighting efforts to filing complete sighting and permitting applications, really based on thorough offshore site investigations, we've done a lot. A lot of upfront work, our approach is to complete an extensive amount of survey work to this -- the fullest extent possible prior to submitting applications. We think that's the best way to make it through the permitting process. On our projects, we've had a fleet of survey vessels. We've spent millions of dollars to assess the characteristics around these areas. That's -- those are critical to the filing of a complete application. We were the first in the U.S. to develop and deploy these measurement BOVIS that are in our lease area to study wind speed and wave height. So we put a lot of effort into thoroughly investigating the sites before moving forward. We also understand that there is constituencies out there that you have to address, the fisheries industry. We have full-time liaisons. We've modified our wind farm layouts to avoid impacts in our designs. We were the first developer to announce changes in proposed turbine layouts based upon input from local fishermen. So that plus the fact that we were the first developer to partner with a group called Responsible Offshore Development Alliance and really it provides a unique partnership for how fishermen can provide direct input to us. So really that combined with the combined strength, I'd say, of the Eversource and Orsted teams in this area, I think, really is a differentiator.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Next question is from Steve Fleishman from Wolfe.
Steven Fleishman:
So just a couple of things, first, Phil, could you just clarify the -- I think in the past the Revolution Wind even though it starts in 2023, it was not really going to benefit till after the forecast period, is that still the case?
Philip Lembo:
That's correct, Steve.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay. And then is there any information you can give on pricing for Sunrise Wind and -- or any idea when that will be made public?
Philip Lembo:
As I've mentioned in my comments, we are probably a few months away from finalizing a contract with [indiscernible] and the expectation really is within 30 or 60 days after that. So after that period at some point there is an expected disclosure of pricing.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay. And then just -- it sounds like maybe you could give a little more color on the comments on financing future growth in the offshore wind. So it sounds like -- a high level thought process is that as the first projects come on they generate cash flow that helps to basically fund the new growth and that's kind of high level how you are thinking about this?
Philip Lembo:
In the early years of those, there's a significant amount of cash flow that's generated from projects once they go into service and that will be used to fund and finance some of the construction costs as we go forward and really -- so I think that helps us and that really gets to the conclusion that other than doing some minor at-the-market issuances we have no future needs for a block equity.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay. So for example, that might be as you're going to book, you're going to get the ITC from those projects. And then you can kind of reinvest those into the growth projects.
Philip Lembo:
Right, there's cash generated from the... Correct, correct. But really, that should -- as I've said, that, that should really -- if you take that and the success that we've had on the future project, that really should allow us to -- and we expect that our growth will accelerate beyond the midpoint of our 5% to 7% as we move forward here.
Steven Fleishman:
Right. Okay, and then just one other question on the offshore wind. So just in terms of the actual booking of the accounting for the tax credit, how are you planning a rough sense of how you're planning to book the accounting of the ITCs?
Philip Lembo:
Yes, the booking of it would be over the life of the asset or the life of the contract. So over a time period so -- or you could look at, so that's one option. The other is to do it over a 10-year period. So we're sort of looking at both of those at this stage.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay, but it's going to be -- you're not going to -- you're definitely going to spread it out?
Philip Lembo:
Yes, correct.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Our next question is from Praful Mehta from Citi.
Praful Mehta:
So maybe just picking up on the tax side, just to clarify on the ITC, is the assumption that the sharing of the ITC and the depreciation, will that be based on the ownership percentage? Or is there a disproportional sharing or a tax equity component related to any of the tax credits?
Philip Lembo:
So when you look at -- the partnership is a 50-50, and I guess, the best way to look at it is, you could -- there's many ins and outs and gives and takes, but the economic value is shared 50-50 between the 2 partners.
Praful Mehta:
Right. So the economic value in total, so the combination, I'm assuming of cash flows and tax credits but you could split the tax credits different from the 50-50, is that a fair way to understand that?
Philip Lembo:
Any category could be -- within the categories split differently than 50-50, but the -- if one category is 40% then another category has to be 60% to offset. So overall, all the categories that relate to the economic value are shared 50-50, but if not each one of them has to be 50-50.
Praful Mehta:
Got you. And just remind us, your tax profile post the 2022 time frame, you are a full tax -- cash taxpayer at that time?
Philip Lembo:
That's correct.
Praful Mehta:
Got you. Understood. That's helpful. And then in terms of the equity offering, you've talked about 12 million shares being done over some time period. Is there any color you can provide on how to think about matching of the timing of the forward with when you would want to do it depending on when the CapEx kind of hits, just to understand that timing?
Philip Lembo:
Sure. The forward was put out for a year, so the expectation is that by the end of May of next year that those 12 million shares would be issued.
Praful Mehta:
I got you. So you delay that as much as you can effectively is the good way to think about that?
Philip Lembo:
Yes, I think the best way to think about it is, we would assess what our needs are and what the opportunities are, and we, again, be opportunistic about when we do it. But we're not going to issue before we need it, that's correct.
Praful Mehta:
Understood. And then finally just on the growth profile that you talked about, the 5% to 7%, there clearly wasn't any Northern Pass in your forecast through 2023, is that right from a growth perspective?
Philip Lembo:
Right, the capital investment was removed from our plan, that is correct.
Praful Mehta:
Right, but was there any underlying base earnings or any AFUDC or anything else in related Northern Pass that was in the plan?
Philip Lembo:
Yes, there was. And I think we've talked about that, that there -- in addition to earning the return on the investment under the transmission service arrangement that we have that there was kind of $0.03 to $0.04 of AFUDC annually in that in our forecast. So we know that, that will not occur, but we are very comfortable and reaffirming back our 5% to 7% target, and I will say that for the remainder of this year because of the impairment that they'll probably be about $0.02 of AFUDC that have been booked, had the project been active that will -- we will not be reflecting, but that we will, as we always do, look for ways and I'm confident, that we'll find opportunities to offset that for the rest of this year and going forward.
Praful Mehta:
Got you. Super helpful. And just to confirm, the 5% to 7%, so you're still comfortable within the midpoint of that range even throughout through 2023?
Philip Lembo:
Yes, that is correct.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Next question is from Paul Patterson from Glenrock.
Paul Patterson:
I wanted to touch base with you on offshore wind and this declining price cap legislation, I guess, sort of the amendments are sort of eliminated and just sort of how you view that in the context of offshore wind economics, I mean, kind of a dramatic move, I guess, on the part of the state legislature and the governor. How should we think about that in the context of, I guess, what Massachusetts is experiencing?
Philip Lembo:
Thanks for the question, Paul. So late last night, I think, you're probably referring to or maybe you haven't caught up with yet that the cap in Massachusetts, there was legislation that I'm not sure the governor actually signed it earlier this morning or will be signing it, but effectively that does lift the cap for one year. So for the next -- for this upcoming solicitation, the cap in Massachusetts is removed and I think that's just recognition that there's many things that they hadn't thought of at the time when the cap was instituted, but they still are focused on cost going forward. So the legislation was passed by both the Senate and the House that removes the cap for this current solicitation. So there is no cap over the current solicitation.
Paul Patterson:
And is that because, I guess, they feel that the economics are such that we might see higher prices in this upcoming solicitation as opposed to what was achieved previously? Is that safe to say?
Philip Lembo:
Yes, I think there is recognition if you've kind of followed the different proposals that were out there, Paul. Folks really honed in on this, the tax credits changing, when they passed the legislation they were at 24% or 30%, and they've been reducing each year. So I think that there is a recognition that all of the things being equal if you lose or have lower tax credits that, that's going to impact the pricing. So rather than sort of engineering every particular aspect of the bid, they just decided it's easiest just remove the cap and -- for a year and then go forward.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. And then on the Connecticut grid mod. I'm sorry, if I missed this. What's the timing that you're expecting on that?
Philip Lembo:
Well, the -- I'll just give a little bit of history there that this was a docket that has been completed and all the testimony has been done, but in the interim, there's been some -- there was changes, Katie Dykes, who was the chair of the PURA has moved -- sort of been moved into a higher position and a new chair at Connecticut PURA then there was legislation in Connecticut to increase the size of PURA by adding 2 more commissioners. So there's been a little bit of evolution in the Connecticut PURA. So right now, we believe that is certainly one of the issues that is on the front burner of the agenda at the PURA, but it's hard to say precisely when we expect it, I mean, we do expect it to come out this year. And we have been working on proposals that we would bake in response to it, so that we are ready to go when something does come up. But just to refresh your memory, this is not a prescriptive per se order that we're looking -- that's coming out, the expectation, it will be more directional and then ask each company to submit specific proposals to address it. So in the anticipation of that we are working currently on our specific proposals, again, so that we are ready when the order comes out.
Paul Patterson:
It's been kind of dormant there, I mean, for -- I guess, since January or something, it seems to me, and I'm just wondering, you expect an order though just to of show up or is there any other process that will happen between -- or will there be something else that's going to be -- in other words, should we just -- are we just waiting for an order now? Is that pretty much where we're at?
Philip Lembo:
There is no indication that there is any other process that would be done, so at this stage, we are just awaiting an order.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. And then just finally on the battery stuff, how do you see the economics of your battery investments vis-à-vis peakers. I mean we're hearing different things from different players in the sector around the country, cheaper than a peaker, that kind of thing, when it's combined with renewables what happens? I'm just sort of wondering since you've highlighted the deployments that you're making in your service territory. How do you see that -- how do you see the economics of that going forward?
Philip Lembo:
Paul, as I described in our applications, there's many different applications for the storage and it's -- some of it is purely based on cost displacement of a peak, our resource some of it has to do with reliability, providing battery storage as our application in province down on the Cape really provides an opportunity to improve reliability there and then we don't have to construct a line through the national seashore or a type of thing. So there's certainly a myriad of benefits, price being one of them, emissions being one of them, reliability being one of them, and I think battery storage, as a package, can address a lot of those things, and then if you can combine it with intermittent resources, it even has a better application. So certainly there's opportunities for the cost to come down. I believe in that area as there's improvements made in storage technology, but I think the early applications are going to kind of proof some of these things out, and we feel very -- have a great opportunity here to really demonstrate the real value that it brings on many fronts.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Next question is from Travis Miller from Morningstar.
Travis Miller:
So on the green bonds, I was wondering if you could talk about your decision to go with that type of bond versus the, obviously, traditional type. And then how much capacity you have to continue issuing those types of bonds given the pricing you've got?
Philip Lembo:
Thanks for the question, Travis. I'd say that if you look at the bottom line, we believe that we -- our pricing was tighter in the green bond than it would have been in an alternative issuing, a nongreen bond issuance for when we need it. So pricing, there's certainly a lot of interest, our ESG profile really contributes to attracting investors. As you know with the green bonds, there needs to be a green reason to use it and certainly, as we move forward with all of Clean Energy applications, there could be more opportunities to issue green bonds going forward. So the -- I guess, the capacity for them is dependent upon what you're doing that's green, and we do a lot of things that aren't green. So I'd expect that we'd have much more capacity to issue green bonds as we move forward. I can't give you a specific dollar amount or application right now, but the basis for the green bond that we did issue was the $500 million a year that we spend on energy efficiency and some of our other green initiatives. So -- and those become more and more part of our business. There's more and more opportunity to issue those green bonds.
Travis Miller:
Okay. And do those have to sit, not the ones you issued, I know, I also have to sit at the parent but is there opportunity or capacity to issue green bonds down at the utilities for some of the stuff, the batteries or anything else that you're doing?
Philip Lembo:
I mean, this one was -- in fact, this one was at NSTAR Electric. So it absolutely can go at the utilities.
Travis Miller:
Okay, I guess, I'll ask the reverse then, could you do it with the parent some sort of the offshore winds?
Philip Lembo:
It's at the end of the parent.
Unidentified Company Representative:
So I think almost likely, yes.
Travis Miller:
Okay, okay. And then just really quick clarification on the equity. How much would you have needed if you weren't doing the offshore wind? Was there a need there either on the parent refinancing site or down at the utilities?
Philip Lembo:
What we said and what we'll continue to say is that we had -- we have a robust $13 billion capital program in that forecast time period. And that combined with the activities we were performing in the wind area really drove the need for the equity issuance. I hesitate to allocate x amount to one category versus the other, but certainly when you look at, we do have robust capital plan that was a big driver of that deal.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Next question is from Julien Dumoulin-Smith of Bank of America.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
So just coming back to some of the prior questions on tax credit. I was just curious, do you have any more specificity you can talk to about both the specific ITCs tax year that you're going to try to qualify for the different offshore projects? And also just come back just what is the amortization here? I know this was kind of indirectly asked earlier, but I just want to be very specific about it, and I recognize that you may not have yet made up your mind with respect to these decisions either.
Philip Lembo:
Thanks for the questions, Julien. I'd say that the specificity we've given on the tax years or whatever to say that they were appropriate considering the timing of when we bid and what the construction schedule would be. But we have not nor would we plan to identify a specific year, a specific item, that type of thing. But I will say that we've accounted for being conservative, having schedule changes, et cetera, in our tax planning profile. So no more specific than that at this stage. In terms of the number of years, I'd say -- I pointed out there's different ways of showing that. Obviously, you get cash in early and then you could reflect that. So we would do it in the most attractive way, but still evaluating -- we're still evaluating how it best fits into our tax profile going forward. It's hard to say what that looks like right now, but we are going to make the best use of that in the years ahead.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
All right. Let me reframe it this way perhaps, by the time that you're ready to roll forward your outlook to '24, will you be reflecting a decision with respect to tax recognition in that guidance right? I mean, this would seemingly be a pretty material piece of how you establish your future guidance, I would think?
Philip Lembo:
Sure. I'd say there'd have to be some baseline assumption that we would make there that would be appropriate to discuss.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. And then just come back to Praful's question earlier about the value share. I had a thought that Orsted had confirmed that they indeed there were going to provide you with their tax credits as a quasi-tax equity counterparty, but can you elaborate, I mean, to the extent possible about how they and you are talking about monetizing the other tax component? And also if possible, how you would think about recognizing that again in your income statement at least to which you are taking on their portion of tax credit.
Philip Lembo:
So as I said, there are many categories to divvy up the 50-50 economic value of the partnership and certainly, if every source has more of an ability to utilize more efficiently the tax benefits of the partnership then we'd be foolish not to sort of make that determination. So I'd say at this stage, Julien, the specific, how that's going to work and what the numbers are, are still influx, still something that we look at all the time as part of our partnership, what makes the most sense for the partnership returns going forward, and how we can best utilize the financial profile and the operational knowledge, in fact, of each party to be the most successful financially and operationally here. So I think it's just common sense that if somebody can better do something, let them. Rely on them whether it be constructing something, if there's a better tax appetite, if you can finance cheaper. So all of these different items, we're going to pick the best way to do it and if that means that, that category isn't exactly 50-50, so be it. But the overall division is going to be 50-50. So some of these decisions evolve as you go through time.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. Quick clarification if I can summarize here. How you think about the equity net injection needed for these offshore projects? Again, the thought process being, trying to tie back the balance sheet, the equity you raised here against your outlook over the 5-year period. How should we think about these projects? And I understand that their cash flow profile shifts pretty dramatically depending on the specific year, but upfront, 30% equity? How would you frame it?
Philip Lembo:
I'd say the way that you should look at and the way that we've guided is to say, you should assume that it's sort of an Eversource profile cap structure and that would be 64%.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Next question is from Andrew Weisel from Scotia Howard Weil.
Andrew Weisel:
I have a question on your appetite for more offshore wind. So you have committed to 50% of over 1,700 megawatts. How big would you be willing to let that business get for you? Is it a question of the earnings mix or the balance sheet or the physical lease capacity space? And what would happen with the partnership with Orsted if you and they wanted to move at different paces?
Philip Lembo:
Thanks, Andrew. And I guess this is a question of bigger -- is bigger better, I guess, is the nature of your question. But our lease sites can handle 4,000 megawatts of capacity and that's what we are in partnership with Eversource and Orsted and really I'd say there's not a race to get to the full capacity. There's many thousands on the drawing board of offshore winds RfPs and needs that are expressed in New England and New York. And those come in over many, many, many years and our lease areas, in my view, are the very best. I mean, you look at the proximity of where they are to shore, you look at all the wind speed and other depth characteristics of those sites, and I'd rather have my sites than anything else out there. So there will be plenty of opportunities to grow this as we move forward. But we're going to do it in a way that is disciplined, and we're going to look at each RFP in terms of what the schedule is, what we already have on our plate, what we can do going forward and what the financial profile is of that RFP. So it has to be not necessarily bigger but it has to fit the profile and be a financially additive to what we're doing going forward.
Andrew Weisel:
Okay. So notwithstanding cost, certainly, you can't get into the details for bidding reasons, but it sounds like you will be pursuing all of these reasonably aggressively, right?
Philip Lembo:
I didn't say that, I said we would look at each one and make determination as to what the schedule that the RFP is looking for, what we already have on our plate, what we think the financial, the bid price would be, what that would mean in terms of returns and then we would make a determination based on that in terms of what our bid strategy would be for each specific RFP.
Andrew Weisel:
Okay, got it. And just to confirm, am I right that for all of these offshore wind projects, the interests will be capitalized and therefore, it will impact cash flows during construction but not earnings? Is that the right way to think of it?
Philip Lembo:
That is, yes. You are correct.
Andrew Weisel:
Okay, great. Then one last one if I may. How do you think about affordability in New England given the higher costs of these projects? I understand that your utilities are in rate freezes, but over the next several years, is affordability a concern especially given the high starting prices for rates in the region?
Philip Lembo:
Affordability for our customers is already always a primary concern as well as their reliability and the quality of service that we provide. So certainly, affordability of energy supply costs, affordability of our own distribution rates, affordability is top of the list for customers and top of our list. So we continue to evaluate that and you look at that in relation to what the alternative is, okay? So if you are in a region, as we are in the 3 states that we serve, and in a region that has very aggressive carbon reduction targets, you need to see how is it that you're going to meet those targets and provide the level of capacity and service to customers that they deserve. So what might seem like high cost to some is relative depending on the region you're in and the alternatives that you have, but certainly affordability is important to us.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Next question is from Mike Weinstein at Crédit Suisse. Mike?
Michael Weinstein :
One quick follow-up. Just wanted to know if you guys have heard anything from FERC on transmission ROEs and the decision on that upcoming. I'm sorry, if I missed this answer earlier.
Philip Lembo:
Mike, you didn't miss any answer on that. The answer is that we have not heard anything from FERC on the status of our 4 open ROE compliance.
Michael Weinstein :
Okay, I was just wondering because they've been issuing a few decisions lately, so I was just wondering if there is any movement.
Philip Lembo:
Yes, nothing that we're aware of or that we've seen.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
We have nobody else in the queue, so we want to thank all of you for joining us this morning. If you have any follow-ups, feel free to give us a call or send us an e-mail. Thanks a lot and have a good day.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. And you may now disconnect.
Operator:
Welcome to the Eversource Energy First Quarter 2019 Results Conference Call. My name is Palette, and I will be your operator for today’s call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Jeff Kotkin from Eversource Energy. You may begin.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thank you, Palette. Good morning and thank you for joining us. I am Jeff Kotkin, Eversource Energy’s Vice President for Investor Relations. During this call, we will be referencing slides that we, excuse me, posted last night on our website. And as you can see on slide one, some of the statements made during this investor call may be forward-looking as defined within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on management’s current expectations and are subject to risk and uncertainty, which may cause the actual results to differ materially from forecasts and projections. These factors are set forth in the news release issued yesterday. Additional information about the various factors that may cause actual results to differ can be found in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2018. Additionally, our explanation of how and why we use certain non-GAAP measures is contained within our news release and the slides we posted last night and in our most recent 10-K. Speaking today will be Phil Lembo, our Executive Vice President and CFO. Also joining us today are John Moreira, our Treasurer and Senior VP for Finance and Regulatory; and Jay Buth, our VP and Controller. Now I will turn to slide two and turn over the call to Phil.
Phil Lembo:
Thank you, Jeff. Today I will cover our first quarter 2019 financial results, an update on key regulatory dockets and recent developments concerning our offshore wind partnership with Orsted. Starting with the quarter in slide two, we had a very strong start to the year, earning $0.97 per share, compared with earnings of $0.85 in the first quarter of 2018. Earnings improved in each of our three largest business segments, Electric Transmission, Electric Distribution and Natural Gas Distribution. Transmission earnings were $0.37 per share in the first quarter of 2019, compared with $0.34 last year. The improvement is due to the increased level of investment in our transmission facilities. In the first quarter of 2019 core utility transmission capital expenditures totaled $199 million and we continue to forecast core utility transmission investments of nearly $1 billion for the full year. Our Electric Distribution segment earned $0.38 per share in the first quarter of ‘19, compared to $0.33 last year. Most of that increase is attributable to the outcome of the recent Connecticut Light & Power rate case and lower O&M costs at NSTAR Electric. In addition to the base rate increase, CL&P was allowed to make increased levels of investment to make our system more resilient and to recover related costs through trackers. Those benefits were slightly offset by the absence of $4.3 million at PSNH related to generation earnings in 2019. As you know we divested these units in 2018. Our Natural Gas segment earned $0.24 per share in the first quarter of ‘19, compared with earnings of $0.18 in the first quarter of 2018. The increase was primarily related to the outcome of the Yankee Gas rate case settlement that we achieved last year and the implementation of revenue decoupling at Yankee Gas. It’s important to note that under decoupling, we recognized higher revenues during peak usage periods like the first quarter of 2019 and we will have lower monthly revenue targets in the lower use periods like the second and third quarters of the year. Aside from the implementation of decoupling, our Natural Gas segment benefited from tract investments related to our expanding program to replace cast iron in unprotected steel pipe. We continue to expect those investments to total approximately $160 million across both Massachusetts and Connecticut in 2019, and this is up from $117 million last year. While segment results were consistent with last year and our expectations for 2019, our Parent and Other segment lost $7 million in the first quarter of ‘19, compared to a loss of only $1.4 million in the first quarter of 2018. This was due primarily to higher interest expense, the results of -- resulting from higher short-term rates and the refinancing of some long-term debt at higher interest rates. I should add that you may have noticed on our income statement that our effective tax rate for the quarter was 21%, compared to the 23% to 24% rate we had forecast for the year. The difference is related to how we accounted for the returning to customers of excess deferred income tax collections and it’s likely to remain at that level for years, assuming corporate tax rates are unchanged. You should not expect that the lower effective tax rate will have any improvement on our net income. Moving on to -- from earnings discussion to key operating performance results, our continued intense focus on safety continues to show strong results. Our record is among the best in the industry to-date with our safety rate, commonly known as DART is less than 0.7. Our Electric reliability continues to trend very strong with months between interruptions at nearly 18 months. We are nearly perfect in our goal of responding to natural gas emergencies within target timeframes. We are also doing better than our own targets in terms of diversity and our internal sustainability targets. Turning to recent regulatory activity, you would probably recalled that three of our largest distribution jurisdictions have recently implemented multiyear rate plans that provide us with significant visibility for those distribution businesses for many years into the future. As you can see on slide three, last week we filed a request to implement temporary rate increase at Public Service of New Hampshire. The base electric distribution rates would total $33 million effective July 1st. Later this month we expect to file a request to increase permanent rates on July 1, 2020 by an additional $37 million, above the temporary rates. Public Service of New Hampshire last sought an increase in base rates approximately a decade ago and since then our operating costs have remained essentially flat over those 10 years, while our reliability has improved about 40% and is now in the upper tier among medium-sized electric utilities in the East. Improved service has been driven by more than $1 billion of investments over the past decade, while keeping operating and maintenance expense flat since our last distribution adjustment. It’s truly been a great result for New Hampshire customers. From electricity, I will move to water. On April 22nd, the town of Hingham, Massachusetts voted to purchase the assets of Aquarion Water Company that served the town of Hingham and the neighboring towns of Hull and North Cohasset. The purchase price is expected to be more than $100 million. The Hingham system represents the largest part of Aquarion Massachusetts assets, but only about 5% of Aquarion’s total plant. About 90% of Aquarion’s operations are in Connecticut. While we are disappointed with the outcome of the vote, we were aware that this effort by Hingham was underway when we successfully acquired Aquarion. We continue to see additional growth opportunities for the water business in the future. The town has indicated that it hopes to close the transaction before year end. We will continue to work with the town for an orderly transition. As part of the process, we will determine the final purchase price and the use of proceeds, but we are confident that the sale will not result in any loss for Aquarion. Turning to financing, CL&P issued $300 million of bonds maturing in 2048, at an all-in rate of 3.85%, proceeds were used in large part to pay off a $250 million, 5.5% coupon maturity in February. In terms of equity, I noted in our year end call that we expect to issue approximately $100 million of treasury shares annually for the next five years, through our dividend, reinvestment, employee stock purchase and 401k match plans. Through April, we have issued about 575,000 shares through those plans this year, again that’s four months through April. We also noted that on our call, we plan to issue an additional $2 billion of equity through 2023 to fund our nearly $13 billion core regulated business capital program and our existing offshore wind partnership with Orsted. This new equity is incorporated in our expected 5% to 7% EPS growth rate. As I said in February, we expect to be opportunistic about the equity issuances -- issuance over the forecast period. Slide four provides you with an update on where we stand with our contracting for offshore wind in New England and New York. As you can see, Massachusetts is required by statute to issue more -- a new RFP for 400 megawatts to 800 megawatts by midyear. The Department of Public Utilities is also evaluating whether to double that initial authorized 1,600 megawatt offshore wind procurement to a total of 3,200 megawatts. In Connecticut, PURA last year approved a 200-megawatt contract with Revolution Wind and we expect an additional 100-megawatt contract to be filed in the second quarter. Additionally in Connecticut, the legislature is considering proposals to add another 1,000 megawatts to 2,000 megawatts of offshore wind RFPs. The session ends in Connecticut in early June. In Rhode Island, the PUC approval process is underway for 400-megawatt contract between Revolution Wind and the local Rhode Island distribution company. We expect a decision on the contract in June. In New York, bids were submitted February 14th into a New York RFP for at least 800 megawatts of offshore wind and we continue to await the results of that. We continue to be very positive about offshore wind, zero carbon and the economic development benefits that all of these projects will bring to our region. We also expect the projects contracted thus far to provide a very significant source of earnings and cash flow growth, as the offshore wind turbines enter service in late 2022 and 2023. When these units enter service we expect our earnings growth rate of 5% to 7% to move appreciably higher as a result. Now I will turn the call back to Jeff for Q&A.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thank you, Phil. And I am going to turn it back to Palette just to remind you how to enter the queue for Q&A.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions]
Jeff Kotkin:
Thank you, Palette. Our first question this morning is from Mike Weinstein from Credit Suisse. Good morning, Mike.
Mike Weinstein:
Hey. Good morning. Hey. On the water deals, are there any other municipalities that are in the same boat that are considering a purchase of their systems?
Phil Lembo:
No. They are not. In fact the -- there was a special provision in the late 1800s, when Hingham was first sold to the utility at that time. So there are no other similar provisions in other cities.
Mike Weinstein:
And I am sorry if I missed it, did you say how much, like, what kind of ballpark proceeds you expect to get and were you intend to use those proceed?
Phil Lembo:
Yeah. I did. I did. With the final price tag has to be determined to account for capital additions since certain time periods, but we expect it to be more than $100 million.
Mike Weinstein:
Is that something that could potentially reduce equity needs or is that something you already contemplated in your plan?
Phil Lembo:
Well, the vote just happened in April. So it’s certainly something that we would factor into our ongoing needs in the future.
Mike Weinstein:
Right. So it’s not, I mean, it doesn’t affect the $2.5 billion expectation of equity?
Phil Lembo:
It’s a small amount. It’s $100 million. Certainly, it’s a positive benefit to our cash position.
Mike Weinstein:
Got you. Okay. Also can you comment at all on, I guess, the -- how offshore wind proposals are coming along, especially in New York at this point, I think, New York is supposed to be announced soon, is that your expectation?
Phil Lembo:
Yeah. That is our expectation that -- as we have stated, announcements should be soon, that’s our expectation.
Mike Weinstein:
Is it going to be within a couple of weeks, have they indicated at all when they will come up with an announcement?
Phil Lembo:
I think they are on a schedule that fits sort of their internal needs and requirements. I do think that the decision will be coming in the near-term, but I don’t have a specific date for you, Mike.
Mike Weinstein:
Also as -- my last question is part of the -- what part of the equity plan that you have is specifically for offshore wind. I understand the majority of it is for the core capital plan, but how much of that $2.5 billion of equity is needed for offshore wind specifically?
Phil Lembo:
I think as we stated in our previous call when we announced it for the year end call that it really our capital plan the $13 billion investment in the offshore wind is all part of our total investment plan and we have not specifically allocated a certain amount of equity need to each of those specific areas, but it’s really a total need that Eversource has to execute on the plans going forward. And I will just want to reiterate too that, as I said before, we expect to grow the earnings -- with this additional equity need already included in that, we expect to grow the earnings of the Company long term 5% to 7% and somewhere in the middle of that range. So, but the specific allocation to each bucket we have not determined.
Mike Weinstein:
Okay. All right. Thanks a lot.
Phil Lembo:
Thanks, Mike.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thanks, Mike. Next question is from Insoo Kim of Goldman Sachs. Good morning, Insoo.
Insoo Kim:
Good morning. Just one question on the potential regulated investments not in the base plan like the grid mod in Connecticut and potential gas safety spend that may come out in Massachusetts. Any updated thoughts on timing and scale of those?
Phil Lembo:
Good morning, Insoo. There really isn’t any definitive update in terms of timing. I will say that one of the areas that we talked about was grid mod spending in Connecticut and just recently a new PURA Chair Marissa Gillett was took her seat as the Chair of that commission. So we would expect sort of the procedure there on grid mod to start moving forward. I don’t have a specific date for it, but that is a new point of information since our last call. Other than that there really isn’t a specific timeframe. We will file our updated plan for three-year plan in Massachusetts next year and the New Hampshire proceeding is sort of underway, but no specific timeframe there. So other than the new PURA Chair, which should move things along we think in Connecticut, there really is no new dates.
Insoo Kim:
Understood. That’s all I had. Thank you.
Phil Lembo:
All right.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thanks, Insoo. Our next question is from Caroline Bone from Deutsche Bank. Good morning, Caroline.
Caroline Bone:
Hey. Good morning, guys. I was just curious and apologies if I missed this, I was just a couple of minutes late dialing in. But could you kind of quantify how much the implementation of decoupling in Connecticut added to the Q1 results. I mean I guess you had $0.05 up from natural gas revenues and I was just curious how much of that was the decoupling implementation?
Phil Lembo:
Yeah. So you didn’t miss it. I did indicate that the decoupling mechanism really provides the way it’s implemented sort of a more of an uplift in the periods where there is high usage and high demand. So that would be like the first quarter and lower revenues in the second quarter and third quarter where there are lower usage for gas in a system.
Caroline Bone:
Okay.
Phil Lembo:
I would estimate that that’s probably $0.03 to $0.04 in the first quarter that…
Caroline Bone:
Okay.
Phil Lembo:
… wouldn’t have been -- could have been considered in other quarters before the implementation.
Caroline Bone:
Got it. That’s very helpful. All right. And then the other thing I was just kind of noticing that you guys have a lot of short-term debt outstanding or at least you did at the end of Q1. How much of your capacity have you guys used up?
Phil Lembo:
We generally try to keep our outstandings about half of what we have capability for. We do have a number of financings planned for the rest of the year. So I would -- there are ebbs and flows Caroline. We don’t -- we try not to be in the market all the time. But build up a certain critical mass and see if there is a maturity that we can then do that along with terming out some short-terms. So I would expect that from time-to-time the levels move up, sometimes it’s less, but usually we are at about 50% of our capacity.
Caroline Bone:
Okay. And so you would -- so that might -- that balance might come down a little bit, but you kind of feel comfortable with where it is?
Phil Lembo:
Yeah. I would expect it to come down.
Caroline Bone:
Okay. All right. That’s it for me. Thank you.
Phil Lembo:
Thanks, Caroline.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thanks, Caroline. Next question is from Shah Pourreza from Guggenheim. Good morning, Shah.
Shah Pourreza:
Hey, guys. Just real quick on Mike’s question on the equity, obviously, you guys are going to be opportunistic. But are you sort of more prone to layer in the equities as the wind spending starts to really ramp up in the 2020, ‘21 timeframe, I mean, obviously the allocation is going to be different and you have your internal plans to finance some of your base business, but just from -- as we are thinking about the ramp up of the wind spending and the allocation of that equity.
Phil Lembo:
I think our proposal is consistent with what we talked about last time, which is that we will be opportunistic over the five-year period and things we would look at are what the cash needs are, what the market conditions are, et cetera. So not being specific as to what specific timeframe that will happen over, but those are some of the considerations we would use, the cash needs, the market conditions and that type of things.
Shah Pourreza:
Okay. Got it. And then just, Phil, could you just repeat what you alluded or what you kind of highlighted around your growth rate as the wind spending starts to really kick in and they go in service?
Phil Lembo:
Yeah. What I said was that once these units, we have units that come on -- come online in 2022 and 2023. And we are very positive about the contribution that can make and when they enter service we expect the earnings growth rate of 5% to 7% and to move up appreciably higher as a result.
Shah Pourreza:
Okay. So not within the band but incremental to the 5% to 7%?
Phil Lembo:
That’s what I said, yes.
Shah Pourreza:
Okay. Great. And then just lastly, maybe just a quick update around Northern Pass, I mean, obviously, you have had some change in leadership, in governors and there was -- has been a big proponent of the projects, so maybe just a quick update on sort of the status there?
Phil Lembo:
The status of Northern Pass is it’s in the court now in New Hampshire -- at the New Hampshire Supreme Court. On May the 15th there will be oral arguments in the case. We have already ahead of that obviously parties have filed briefs in the matter. So on May the 15th it will be oral arguments. The court then will take all the information and deliberate on that and hopefully sometime later on this year that decision will come out of the Supreme Court. Typically when decisions come out of the court related to regulatory matters they are not sort of an up or down decision, they really are more to identify if there are points that were made that should be remanded and reconsidered by the body that originally did that. So if we are successful at the court we would expect that that were to happen, it would go back to Site Evaluation Committee with some things to reconsider in the process.
Shah Pourreza:
Okay. Great. That was it. Thanks, guys. Thanks, Phil.
Phil Lembo:
All right. Thanks, Shah.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thanks, Shah. Next question is from Travis Miller from Morningstar. Good morning, Travis.
Travis Miller:
Good morning. Thank you. I wonder when you talk about the higher earnings for the offshore wind in that 2022 and 2023 period. What does the CapEx trajectory look like to get there? Is it something that you would have to start immediately or is it something that phases in? What does it peak and how do you get there on the CapEx side?
Phil Lembo:
Just to be clear, in terms of the higher earnings contribution it would be beyond the 2023 time period. We indicated that one of the contracts, the South Fork is comes online. We expect it by the end of 2022 and then the Revolution Wind turbines moving through the year in 2023. So really the -- in our current 5% to 7% guidance there is a small amount of contribution from wind. And really what I am talking about here is that beyond 2023 is where you would see that more appreciable contributions from the offshore wind. So having said that, in terms of construction, we really haven’t given specific, we said that the permitting process is probably a few years. The construction process is a few years. So in the early years you are in more of a permitting process and spending is more sort of on those legal and other costs you would expect permitting and then construction sort of ramps up at the back end of the period.
Travis Miller:
Okay. And can you start booking earnings before it actually goes in service or does the earnings accounting go with cash flow?
Phil Lembo:
No. You cannot. On the offshore wind there is no earnings related to the capital spending. It would be when the revenues come in.
Travis Miller:
Okay. Great. That’s all I had. Thank you.
Phil Lembo:
Thank you. Travis.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thanks, Travis. Next question is from Andrew Weisel from Scotia Howard Weil. Good morning, Andrew.
Andrew Weisel:
Good morning, guys. First question is on Massachusetts offshore wind. The law requires that Utah RFP needs to procure prices no higher than those signed in response to past RFPs. And I think most people would agree that their Vineyard offshore project was aggressive on pricing. So my question is -- my questions are, do you expect the proposed legislation to remove that ceiling to move forward and do you as a bidder think that lower costs from like a more mature supply chain would overcome the loss of those tax credits or is higher pricing inevitable?
Phil Lembo:
Thank you for that question, Andrew. As you mentioned there is in the Boston Globe and other news sources, there are reports that the legislature is considering, taking another look at that provision and seeing if it, what impact that it has on future bids. Does it inhibit the bidders, is it better for the commonwealth in the long run that there some modification to that provision. So that -- that will be worked out by the legislature coming up. So there are certainly publicly disclosed discussions that type of activity is going on. I will say that depending on where you are in the bid process and you could be losing a considerable amount of tax benefit, you may have done a bid with 24% investment tax credit in mind and you get out a few years you are maybe down to half of that or it sunsets totally under the current loss. So I think that that would be a significant impact on a bid price and maybe whether or not that could be overcome by supply chain, I think, you would have to wait and see. But you have -- certainly you would have a known number of a reduction of the tax credit versus an unknown benefit from the supply chain. So I think that the loss in the long run -- the loss of the tax benefit would be significantly to the bidder.
Andrew Weisel:
Okay. Thanks. That’s helpful. Sorry, go ahead.
Phil Lembo:
No. I was going to say, and certainly, we all have to keep in mind that the tax benefits exist or they get extended or something happens, that in the long run benefits customers because prices can reflect that and should result in lower prices.
Andrew Weisel:
Understood. My next question is on rate cases. You talked about the PSNH rate case filing and the multiyear plans. What is your latest thinking on when and where we might see the next filings pop up?
Phil Lembo:
Well, I think that possibly the only real franchise that is and under in their agreement right now is at the gas business in Massachusetts. So I would expect that the next one up would be that, since it’s the only one really that doesn’t have a plan. As you know and somebody mentioned earlier, I think, Mike did earlier in the discussion there is an evaluation going on in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, taking a look at the gas distribution systems across the whole Commonwealth. So I’d say that, you would want to wait and see what the outcome of that was, maybe there is some additional programs that have to be implemented, and certainly, you would want to know that before you prepare to filing. If you are going to have to implement new procedures, you would want to make sure you had revenue to recover that. So the next case I would expect to see, because it’s the one that hasn’t been through the process yet is in the gas business in Massachusetts. And then in terms of the timing, I would expect that to be somewhat after we see what comes out of the review that’s being conducted in Massachusetts.
Andrew Weisel:
That makes sense. Then, one last one, this is probably a minor point, but the slide on the Greater Boston Reliability Solution, looks like two of the projects have slipped in terms of the approval going from 1Q to 2Q and then at project completion, it seems like a couple more will not be completed by the end of this year. Anything you can comment on what change and how big of an impact that might have?
Phil Lembo:
It won’t have any impact in terms of the rate base. The capital investment plan may move for that, but the overall transmission plant and service rate base will not be impacted by those changes. I will say that, like any project that we do these days, getting through some of the citing and permitting. As you know, probably takes a little bit longer than it did five years ago and challenges and whatnot. So there are a couple of towns that were associated with the Greater Boston project that the permitting process is moving slower than we had hoped for. So we expect to fully get through those processes, but just on a somewhat delayed basis and that will not have an impact on the transmission rate base.
Andrew Weisel:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Phil Lembo:
You are welcome.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thank you, Andrew. Next question is from Andy Levi from ExodusPoint. Good morning, Andy.
Andy Levi:
Oh! Hey. I was kidding. How are you guys doing?
Jeff Kotkin:
Good. How are you?
Phil Lembo:
All right.
Andy Levi:
I am doing all right. So a little off the number question, just on the Aquarion, I guess, one of the strategies that you had was to possibly grow that through acquisitions, and obviously, with Connecticut Water still in play, we are not sure what’s going to happen there. But longer term, if there’s not the ability to grow through acquisitions, even if smaller systems, and obviously, you just lost a system now, does it make sense for Aquarion longer term kind of stay within the Eversource family or would it be something that you would positively look at to sell and maybe not have raised as much equity?
Phil Lembo:
We feel very confident about our ability to grow the water business, Andy. Not every transaction goes your away. There has been transactions that had happened over time, that we are not involved with other parties are involved with. So you are not going to win every transaction or every RFP or every item that you have out there. But we feel -- we are committed to the water business for the long term. We want to be a long-term operator of that. We see much strategic sense to that in terms of our vision to be a clean energy leader in the region and so we are in the water business for the long-term and we feel confident that we will be able to grow that business, if not -- as you say, if not with the Connecticut Water transaction that there will be other opportunities in the future.
Andy Levi:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Phil Lembo:
You are welcome.
Jeff Kotkin:
All right. Great. Thank you, Andy. We have no other folks in the queue. So we want to thank you for joining us this morning for the call. If you have any follow-up questions give us a call or we will see you at the five conferences that start next week.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s conference. Thank you for participating and you may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good morning. And welcome to the Eversource Energy Fourth Quarter and Year End 2018 Results. My name is Brendon, and I will be your operator for today. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. And I will now turn it over to Jeffrey Kotkin. You may begin, sir.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you, Brendon. Good morning and thank you for joining us. I'm Jeff Kotkin, Eversource Energy's Vice President for Investor Relations. During this call, we'll be referencing slides that we posted last night on our website. And as you can see on slide 1, some of the statements made during this investor call may be forward-looking as defined within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risk and uncertainty, which may cause the actual results to differ materially from forecasts and projections. These factors are set forth in the news release issued yesterday. Additional information about the various factors that may cause actual results to differ can be found in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2017, and on Form 10-Q for the three months ended September 30, 2018. Additionally, our explanation of how and why we use certain non-GAAP measures is contained within our news release and the slides we posted last night and in our most recent 10-K. As you can see on slide 2, speaking today will be Jim Judge, our Chairman, President and CEO; and Phil Lembo, our Executive Vice President and CFO. Also joining us today are Leon Olivier, our Executive Vice President for Enterprise Energy Strategy and Business Development. John Moreira, our Treasurer and Senior VP for Finance and Regulatory; and Jay Buth, our VP and Controller. Now I will turn to slide 4 and turn over the call to Jim Judge.
Jim Judge:
Thank you, Jeff. And thank you everyone for joining us this morning. I am happy, very pleased to discuss our successful performance in 2018 and the very strong future we see for Eversource. Our 8,000 talented and dedicated employees undertake their work everyday to improve the experiences of our customers, support our approximately 500 communities and execute the forward looking clean energy policies of our state. And doing so, we've created a solid, very long track record of delivering significant value to our shareholders. And doing so in a way that effectively manages the risks of our business. A regulated business cannot be successful without positive relationships with its regulators. We firmly believe that our success in achieving top tier reliability and safety performance were combined with our success and reducing our O&M cost by more than 20% since 2012, enables us to create constructive regulatory frameworks that are fair to both customers and investors. As you can see on slide 4, we settled two major distribution rate cases in Connecticut in 2018. One for our electric business and for our natural gas business. The Connecticut Light and Power settlement was the first electric rate case settlement in Connecticut since 1986 and underscores the level of trust and transparency that we develop with other parties. Less than seven months after the three year CL&P settlement went into effect, we implemented a separate three year rate settlement through Yankee Gas. Both CL&P and Yankee Gas settlements provide us with forward looking rate mechanisms that allow us to step up our investments and our infrastructure to better serve our customers without suffering the earnings consequences of rate lag. In 2018, we also moved ahead with some of our strategic initiatives to support relentless focus on sustainability and greenhouse gas reduction. In addition to the divesture of our costly units, we successfully completed the build out of 62 megawatt of solar in Massachusetts. The solar investments totaled approximately $170 billion. In addition, we also began implementing separate initiatives in Massachusetts to invest a total of $233 million in battery storage, electric vehicle infrastructure and other grid modernization projects. They also point Massachusetts state energy policy and by the middle of next year we do compile a new plan for the next three-year cycle beginning with 2021. Our progress in these areas is being recognized. Various ESG rating proves consistently ranked Eversource near the very top of their rating scales, and we now have more than 130 separate socially responsible funds that have invested in our company. We also have achieved strong returns for our shareholders, while managing our risk profile. Across the board, our credit ratings remain very strong among the highest of the industry. Turning to slide 5, you can see that our total return continues to outperform both the utility index and the broad market from a short term and long term basis. While past performance is certainly no guarantee of future returns, it can be a good indicator. And past performance does validate our contention that a company that excels in its service to customers can also excel in delivering value to shareholders. Turning to slide 6, you can see that dividend growth remains a central feature of our total return profile. On February 6th, our board of trustees approved a $0.12 annualized increase in our common dividend. The 6% increase is consistent with the midpoint about 5% to 7% long-term growth rate and exceeds the average dividend growth in our industry. And as you can see on slide 7, we continue to forecast growth of 5% to 7% long-term, a continuation of what we have delivered since our merger closed in 2012. The forecast that Phil will discuss with you shortly extends five years through the 2023. That's a two-year extension to our prior guidance that only went through 2021. As you expect, we continue to plan what even longer term for our growth. As you can see on slide 8, we made the announcement earlier this month that we believe will have a very positive impact on our results well through the next decade. On February 8th, we announced the purchase of a 50% share of similar projects and offshore when energy leases that Ørsted acquired when it bought Peak Water Wind late last year. Our latest transaction builds upon the partnership we first developed with Ørsted in 2016 when we acquired a 50% interest in Bay State wind. This month's announcement relates to leases for more than 250 square miles of ocean of the Massachusetts coast that are adjacent to the 300 square mile Bay State lease that we jointly owned. These lease areas are among the best sites offshore wind in the entire United States and they're in a prime location to meet the growing appetite offshore wind in New England and New York. Together the Bay State wind and Deepwater wind sites could host at least 4,000 megawatts, and we share the partnership 50:50 with Ørsted, the world's largest, most successful and most experienced developer of offshore wind. The Deepwater portfolio in which we now have a 50% share includes contracts for about 830 megawatts of offshore wind that will be sold to utilities at Connecticut, Rhode Island and New York. The 830 megawatts represent the largest concentration of offshore wind contracts currently awarded in North America. These projects still must go through the signing process and will have very limited impact on our earnings growth through 2023. But beginning in 2024, we expect that investment to be a significant source of earnings for Eversource. And those 830 megawatts are likely just the beginning. Last week, we've been into a New York offshore RFP that is expected to be awarded this spring, and later this year we expect to bid into with the second Massachusetts offshore wind RFP where the state seeks another 400 to 800 megawatts of clean generation. All told, New England and New York have announced targets or adopted legislation that could result in the development of up to 15,000 megawatts of offshore wind by the year 2035. Still we'll have more to say about the expected potential impact of this announcement; however, I want to underscore how pleased we are with this transaction, how pleased we are with our partner Ørsted and the opportunity to bring a significant source, a locally produced clean energy to our region. A major factor in our decision to expand our relationship with Ørsted is our partners' unequaled global experience, and track record of delivering offshore wind projects on time and on budget. Ørsted has more than a 25% worldwide market share much larger than its nearest competitor. Of the seven projects Ørsted recently completed, six with the limit below the budget that was set when a final investment decision was made. This fact that combined with Ørsted's record of completing projects on schedule has allowed the company to consistently deliver on its return expectations. Ørsted also shares our philosophy of being a discipline bidder will not sacrifice returns to win business. So while we don't expect to win every offshore wind RFP, we fully expect that our successful bids will achieve a level of profitability commensurate with the project risk. We I believe is largest energy company and the largest developer of energy infrastructure in our region. Collectively, New England has very ambitious greenhouse gas reduction targets seeking to reduce emissions by 80% by the year 2050. New York has established aggressive renewable targets as well. Offshore wind will be central to meeting this region's carbon reduction and renewable development goals and through this partnership; we're quite pleased to play a leading role in executing the region's energy policies. We're also pleased with the long term earnings growth opportunities these investments will provide to our shareholders. Now I'll turn the call over to Phil.
Phil Lembo:
Thank you, Jim. And today my part of the call will cover the 2018 results. An update on our key regulatory dockets. Look at 2019 guidance. Our new five-year financial forecast and a discussion about financing plans during that forecast period. As Jim said, we had strong 2018 from both an earnings and operational perspective. Beginning with slide 10, we earned $3.25 per share for the full year compared with $3.11 in 2017. A year ago we have projected earnings of between $3.20 per share and $3.30. So we're right in line with that projection. Our electric distribution segments earns a $1.44 per share in 2018 compared with earnings of $1.57 in 2017. The decrease was primarily due to low generation earnings as a result of the divestiture of our New Hampshire generating unit assets. Also offsetting the higher revenues were increases in depreciation, interest and property tax expenses. Our Electric Transmission segment earned a $1.34 per share in 2018 compared with $1.23 in 2017. Improved results primarily reflect our increased investments in that business. Our Natural Gas Distribution business earned $0.29 per share in 2018 compared with $0.23 in 2017. The increase was primarily due to higher revenues at our Yankee Gas Connecticut property, which would not decoupled until late in the year, as well as the outcome of a Yankee Gas rate review in the increased revenues related to our capital investment tracker mechanisms. On the Water Distribution segment, we earned $0.10 per share in 2018 and we acquired Aquarion in December so no 2017 results to report there. Eversource parent and other earned $0.08 per share in 2018 including two non recurring items that we discussed in the third quarter. The $0.08 per share write-off of our investment in Access Northeast and a $0.06 gain from various taxes reform items. I know that a number of analysts may or may not have adjusted their estimates accordingly for these events. Fourth quarter 2018 earnings total $0.73 per share compared with $0.75 in the fourth quarter of 2017. Transmission earnings were down a $0.01 compared with the fourth quarter of 2017 primarily due to a higher effective tax rate in that business in 2018, which costs us about $0.03 per share. Electric Distribution was up by $0.09 per share in the fourth quarter due in part to the absence of the generation earnings due to the divestiture, as well as higher depreciation interest in storm damage restoration costs. Conversely, our Natural Gas Distribution segment earnings were up by $0.06 per share in the quarter benefiting from capital tracker mechanisms, cool weather and some increased revenues stemming from the Yankee Gas rate decision. We also had a $0.01 per share in the fourth quarter of 2018 from our water business. Slide 11 summarizes the constructive resolution of our three distribution rate reviews in 2018 for Connecticut Light and Power, Yankee Gas and Aquarion in Massachusetts. We expect far less states rate activity in 2019 though for the first time in nearly a decade we expect to file a general rate review in New Hampshire. Public service in New Hampshire is under earning and it's allowed ROE of 9.67% despite significant cost management success across that business since 2012. In New Hampshire rate reviews take about a year to complete, but utilities have the opportunity to request interim rate increases subject to refund if they expect to under earn, they previously authorized ROEs while the rate review is pending. As a result, we are planning to file for interim rate relief in New Hampshire in April and full rate review in May of this year. The next area to cover is FERC. This past fall I'm sure you know, FERC issued a proposed new methodology for determining whether it should initiate new proceedings concerning transmission ROEs, and if so, what methodology should be used to decide on them. As you can see on slide 12, there are still four complaints pending against the ROEs earned by the New England electric transmission owners of which we have lagged. Initial briefs on the FERC methodology were filed in January with reply briefs due in a couple of weeks. We're hopeful that in 2019 this long-running dispute will be resolved by FERC, and that FERC endorses of standards that in the future will make this type of serial complaints, we've had a New England highly unlikely. From 2018 now I'd like to turn to slide 13 and discuss our 2019 guidance. We expect to earn between $3.40 and $3.50 per share in 2019. As you can see in the slide, we expect to benefit from our multiyear rate review outcomes in 2018 from our Massachusetts electric jurisdictions. And our Connecticut electric and natural gas utilities. NSTAR Electric implemented roughly $32 million increase in base distribution rates on January 1st of 2019 as part of its five-year performance-based rate plan approved by the Massachusetts DPU in November of 2017. This increase will help fund reliability enhancement and customer service initiatives. At CL&P based distribution rates rise by an incremental $31.1 million on May 1st of 2019. Here again, this increase provides us timely recovery for our system improvements. Yankee Gas implemented a $1.4 million rate increase on November 15, 2018. The increase was the first of three approved in a multi-year agreement with Connecticut's PURA with the second increase effective beginning in 2020. Yankee Gas also receives approval for a tracking mechanism for cast iron and unprotected steel pipe replacements. Finally, Aquarion in Massachusetts implemented a $2 million rate increase just before the end of last year. In the transmission business, we expect to benefit from our continued investment and FERC regulated facilities. We invested just shy of a $1 billion in the transmission facilities at CL&P electric in public service in New Hampshire in the year 2018. And transmission investments in 2019 are expected to be at a similar level at $990 million as we complete some of our major transmission projects in Connecticut, New Hampshire and continue to address our overhead and underground maintenance activities. In terms of O&M, although overall O&M is expected to increase in 2019 as areas of spending where we have regulatory commitment and recoveries in place. The O&M that affects earnings is expected to decline by about 1% to 2% in 2019. Growth will also be as a result of distribution capital tracking mechanisms in the areas such as replacement of old and cast -iron and unprotected steel pipes in our natural gas business and older water mains at Aquarion. Somewhat offsetting the additional revenues associated with these investments are higher depreciation, interest expensive and property taxes. So turning from the recent investments to future capital expenditures. I'll move on to slide 14. Overall, we expect to invest nearly $13 billion in our core electric natural gas and water delivery systems from 2019 through 2023. We expect to invest nearly $8 billion over the next three years. So $8 billion out of the $13 billion over the next three years. This represents a significant increase from the $6.5 billion forecast we provided to you last year from our core business for the same years. It's key contributor to continuing our outstanding service reliability to our customers into the extension of our 5% to 7% growth rate through 2023. As you can see on slide 15, every segment of the business is forecasting higher expenditures with the electric transmission and distribution business showing the greatest growth. As shown on slide 16, we expect these increases to move our regulated rate base from $16.6 billion at the end of 2017 to $24.5 billion by the end of 2023 That's a 6.7% compound annual growth rate that is expected to maintain our safe, secure and reliable delivery systems and drive our 5% to 7% EPS growth over that period. This is the basis of why we believe we can grow earnings around the midpoint of our range on average over the next five years. Confident in that ability. On the transmission side, the increased investment aligns with our asset management oversight process and anticipates completion of our larger projects in Greater Boston, our New Hampshire seacoast and our Greater Hartford suites of projects. It also includes significant regional projects such as substation investments in Greenwich, Connecticut and in Cambridge Massachusetts, as well as a number of smaller projects to improve the resilience and security of the transmission system. These include replacing overhead structures and upgrading some of our underground infrastructure due to age and asset condition. Turning to slide 17, you see that many of the larger projects we have spoken about to you over recent years are moving ahead to its final completions. The Greater Hartford Central Connecticut reliability family projects should be complete by the end of this year. We received a written order on January 31st of this year from the New Hampshire's site evaluation committee approving the Seacoast reliability project. And that is expected to be complete by the end of this year. The Greater Boston reliability project continues to progress. This is a joint solution with National Grid. We are also --we are responsible for 28 of these projects of which 25 should be complete by the end of this year. In the Electric Distribution segment, we forecast capital expenditures of nearly $3.5 billion from 2019 through 2021 compared with last February's forecast of $2.9 billion for the same year. We also expect to invest another $2.25 billion over the course of the years 2022 and 2023 in electric distribution. There are a number of factors driving the increase as we discussed previously, we've identified many additional automation and storm hardening opportunities following the rash of Nor'easters and tornadoes that struck our overhead electric system last March and May. We also are seen faster customer growth in certain areas of Greater Boston including the Seaport area and cities of Somerville and Cambridge will be making incremental substation investments. These investments are being made to meet the growing demand of customers in these areas. In the Natural Gas business, we now forecast $2.33 billion of capital expenditures over the next five years with about $1.4 billion occurring in the next three. These expenditures include an acceleration of pipe replacement in both Connecticut and Massachusetts. In the recent Yankee Gas rate case of the Connecticut PURA shorten the period for replacing the older cast iron and unprotected natural gas distribution pipes from 13 years to 11 years. Our new forecast also reflects a more rapid replacement of cast iron unprotected steel pipe in our larger Massachusetts system. We're also making additional plant and system investments in our Huntington LNG facility that we're doing in parallel with our current liquefier and major systems upgrade. On slide 18, you can see our forecasted pipe replacement capital budget for the next five years. You may recall that as a result of the Yankee Gas rate settlement, we now have fully reconciling pipe replacement and tracking mechanisms in place in both states. In addition to pipe replacement, we continue to see some growth from new construction, new customers, additional fuel cell application and the installation of new combined heat and power systems and customer facilities fuelled by natural gas. This growth requires additional investments in our natural gas infrastructure which drives the distribution rate base growth by an average at annual average of more than 12% through 2023, far faster than any of our other regulated segments. Rate base is expected to exceed $3.5 billion here by the end of 2023. Turning to slide 19, in our Water Segment, we invested about $102 million in Aquarium systems in 2018 about 50% more than Aquarion's prior owners were investing each year. We expect to invest nearly $625 million in Aquarium systems over the next five years or about $125 million per year. As you can see on the slide, we're projecting rate base reaching approximately $1.2 billion by the end of 2023. Turning to slide 20, you can see about a third of that investment is designed to improve Aquarium's ability to meet the water supply needs of southwestern Fairfield County in Connecticut. We now have reconciling mechanisms to recover pipe replacement investment in each state Aquarion serves. In addition to growing Aquarion through investments in our existing service territory, we continue to seek out opportunities to require small existing systems particularly in Connecticut. About three weeks ago state regulators approved Aquarion's purchase of assets of two smaller water companies in South East Connecticut. Four of the small acquisitions are now before regulators for approval. I mentioned the number of items that are included in our five-year nearly $13 billion capital forecast. On slide 21, we list some potentially significant items that are not in our core business CapEx forecast. And may come to fruition during the forecast period. In the CapEx forecast, we've been conservative I'd say in terms of what may come out of the grid modernization dockets in the state's we serve. In Connecticut, we await the release of a Connecticut PURA report on a year-long review of distribution companies long-range planning, which there was considerable discussion about Advanced Metering Infrastructure or AMI, also discussion of energy storage increased real-time monitoring of lines and substation conditions and other topics. Because the review has extended longer than we had anticipated, we opted not to include any AMI of basic incremental grid modernization spending at CL&P in this forecast. We also did not include any basic grid mod in New Hampshire in this forecast, but expect to make some proposals in New Hampshire's upcoming general rate review or in a separate filing following the New Hampshire PUC issuance of a final decision in their ongoing grid modernization proceedings. In Massachusetts, you can see on slide 22, we are currently implementing $233 million of the approved investments in core grid modernization storage and electric vehicle infrastructure. Beyond these programs, the DPU has asked the utility, the state electric utilities to propose next year a new three-year grid modernization program for the period of 2021 through 2023. Our forecast includes spending on incremental core grid mod programs through 2023. Like Connecticut, we expect Massachusetts to also consider the rollout of advanced metering infrastructure or AMI. But we're not reflected any rollout of AMI in this forecast. Separately, we've not included any investments in Northern Pass in this forecast. In terms of O&M, we expect O&M to remain relatively flat during years two through five of our five-year forecast after the decline of 1% to 2% for 2019 that I mentioned earlier. Turning to our financing plan. As illustrated at the end of the appendix, we have modest level of maturities that will need to be refinanced this year and next year. However, we do have a significant core business capital program that I described earlier. In addition, we have approximately $100 million of excess deferred income taxes that will be refunded to customers over the next few decades. And the cash flow benefits of bonus depreciation as everybody knows has ended. These factors are positive for customers deposited for long term growth. Over the past four years, we've invested nearly $10 billion in our infrastructure to maintain great performance for our customers. Annual capital expenditures grew from about $1.9 billion in to 2015 to more than $2.8 billion in 2018, which contributed to our top quartile reliability and service response for customers. We also entered the water business by acquiring New England's largest investor owned water company back in December of 2017. We continue to evolve our business to meet the growing needs of our customers, as well as the clean energy mandates of our region. In order to finance this growth, this five-year forecast period does include issuance of both new debts in equity to finance investments in a balanced way as you can see on slide 23. We expect to issue approximately 2 billion of new equity over the next five years. This equity will help fund the nearly $13 billion of core business and capital investments we expect to make through 2023 and also our 50% of the capital requirements associated with the construction of the offshore wind facilities for which we and Ørsted have secured PPAs that Jim talked about earlier. We'll also use treasury shares to satisfy our dividend reinvestment program needs. Our expectation to grow earnings per share around the midpoint of the 5% to 7% range through 2023 anticipates the issuance of this equity over the five years. I'll repeat that. We expected revenue earnings per share around the middle of our 5% to 7% growth rate through 2023 even while issuing approximately $2 billion of equity through new common share issuance and with the Eversource share s coming out of Treasury for our dividend reinvestment program. We will be opportunistic about the equity issuance and will time them accordingly over the next several years. The PPAs we have for offshore wind did not produce revenues or earnings until the turbine begin producing energy. Construction cost including interest on debt will be capitalized into the class of the projects, but there will be no earnings on the equity investment until the turbines are operating. By 2024, we expect all 830 megawatts of offshore winds to be fully operational being additive to our earnings growth trajectory in a meaningful way going forward. Cash flows also expected to rise significantly once the offshore wind turbines are fully operational. On the fixed income side, we continue to carry very strong credit ratings for all agencies. We've always maintained a balanced approach here, achieving above-average strong earnings and dividend growth and also strong credit ratings. We prided ourselves on delivering strong financial performance and strong financial condition. This plan accomplishes both in a balanced way delivering a 5% to 7% EPS growth and maintaining the strong financial condition and metrics that we currently have. To summarize on slide 24 as Jim said earlier, 2018 was a very strong year for us. Our reliability and safety metrics remained in the upper tier of the industry. Our customer service metrics continue to improve and we are introducing innovative technology to improve the customer experience in many ways including more mobile access. We continue to play a vital role in implementing our state's clean energy initiatives. We continue to provide our investors with strong earnings and dividend growth and have to provide an attractive future growth opportunity. Going forward, our core business continues to be the engine for our 5% to 7% EPS growth outlook for 2023. Our underlying rate based growth is 6.7%. And we continue with our strong focus on our O&M part. And we see offshore wind is being added to our earnings growth in a meaningful way beyond 2023. Look forward to seeing many of you at the Equity and Fixed Income Conference is coming up in Boston in New York over the next week. And I'll turn the call back to Jeff for Q&A.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you, Phil. And I'm going to return the call to Brendon to remind you how to enter your question.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]
Jeffrey Kotkin:
First question this morning is from Mike Weinstein from Credit Suisse. Good morning. Mike.
Mike Weinstein:
Good morning, guys. Thanks for the big update. A question on the equity coming out. Can you give us I mean I know that you said it's going to be opportunistic, but can you give us a sense of whether some of it is back end loaded for the wind project? I think you said that you wouldn't be investing in the wind projects until they come online, right. So that'd be pretty far out. And I mean that was I think the Ørsted is only $225 million so that wouldn't be that much of the $2 billion equity to account for that. Maybe you can give us a sense of what that equity is for like why do you need equity now. I mean I understand that with bonus depreciation rolling our tax cash taxpayer at some point in this plan. So that would be a contributor. Can you just tell us like what's driving the $2 billion of equity and when you'll need most of it is? Is it backend loaded or front unloaded?
Phil Lembo:
Sure. So, Mike, let me let me just add to something that you mentioned or clarify a few things. The capital program of $13 billion and the construction of 830 megawatts is included over the next five years not just that initial payment that you referenced to the partnership in Ørsted. So it's the construction of the 830 megawatts where the turbines and our CapEx program. So as I said, we will be opportunistic and assess what our needs are over that time period. No rush to need to do anything, but we'll take our time to look at what our construction program looks like over that time period and make some determination over the course of that period. So I wouldn't say that any of it is front end or backend loaded. I just say we'd be opportunistic of how we're going to approach it going forward.
Mike Weinstein:
Is -- how much of it is driven by the fact that you are becoming a cash taxpayer again and because I mean just a few years ago we were talking about the possibility of stock buybacks right. So this is the flip of that. I'm just wondering what's the driver of the $2 billion.
Phil Lembo:
Yes. Mike, we better tax cash payer actually, we are tax and cash payer this year and we expect to be a tax cash payer next year. We had about $160 million of cash taxes in 2018 and will probably be in the 130 to 150 range in 2019 in terms of cash payment. And just to clarify in terms of, we had not really discussed share buyback I know but we got the question a lot, but I've always and we've always said that our focus is on investing in the infrastructure of business. And we didn't see that we would be in that mode of buying shares back that we would be continuing to invest in the business. And as I said, we've had a significant capital program over many years and have the next five years as even larger as I described going forward.
Jim Judge:
Mike, this is Jim. Just to add to a point that Phil made earlier in his comments. I think it's important to recognize that we're guiding towards 6% the midpoint of the range through 2023 and in the process we're not only funding the core business CapEx, but we're funding the build-out of the offshore wind as well, with virtually no earnings contribution from that business until 2024 when revolution wind comes online. So we're basically guiding to 6% even with the drag associated with the offshore wind investment.
Mike Weinstein:
Got you, and that offshore wind investment is just -- just the Ørsted for now just a 50% investment for now, right?
Jim Judge:
That is our partnership with Ørsted 50% on day one.
Operator:
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Next question is from Insoo Kim from Goldman Sachs. Good morning, Insoo.
Insoo Kim:
Good morning. Maybe to ask the timing of the equity in a different way. So I think you have mentioned in the past that you wanted to keep the current Moody's credit rating intact. Do you have any sense of does that imply target FFO debt of, let's say 14% to 15%? And, if so, what time period do you look to I guess achieve or at least maintain that level?
Phil Lembo:
Well, certainly we like where our Moody's credit rating is as you're right that we were target to maintain that credit rating. And you are also right that would indicate FFO to debt at those levels which --so that would imply we would be targeting that to maintain those rating. So there's really no change there, and I think that as we get into our kind of our spring forecast period with the rating agencies will, we obviously have discussed any press release that comes out and will provide an updated forecast as we go forward.
Insoo Kim:
Understood and then regarding the 5% to 7 % EPS CAGR through this time period. Do you expect it to be a little bit lumpy given a lot of the regulated, the bulk of the increase of the regulate investments are in the next three years and then you have a lot of the wind construction financing without the earnings benefit coming in the latter half of that period. I just --I'm just trying to gauge whether they're --it's more of stable or whether we could expect some lumpiness?
Phil Lembo:
I say it's more stable. Yes, I mean certainly any particular quarter could have particular things in it, but I'd say you should expect us to be in a stable growth environment.
Insoo Kim:
Understood and just one more if I could What's the total potential opportunity set for AMI at least over this five-year period that could add to the rate base growth?
Phil Lembo:
Well, in our --when you look at it, I'll say for us nothing has been approved, right. So if you did a full rollout in Connecticut and Massachusetts you might be at a $1 billion or for full rollout everywhere for AMI it should proceed what the program like that it would be over multiple years to get that installed. So that's the sizing that you should be thinking about there.
Operator:
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Great, thanks Insoo. Next question is from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Bank of America. Good morning, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin Smith:
Hey, good morning, team. Thank you. Perhaps just to kick off on the offshore side if I can you. Elaborate a little bit on how you think about the size of the equity check now? I mean I know you've put down something of a down payment here with 225. I know that you are targeting regulated like returns on this investment, but what is the equity check that you're going to need just the kind of backdoor if you will into the 2024-ish earnings profile that we're talking about here?
Jim Judge:
Yes. Julien, this is Jim. I don't know you mentioned regulated returns, Ørsted is identified high single digit IRS as an appropriate return target, and importantly is the limit on that so that translates more to mid-teens ROE for us. We would expect offshore wind to be our highest earning business segment.
Julien Dumoulin Smith:
I'm sorry, okay, to run and reconcile with that mid-teens on what kind of equity check? And should we include the 225 that you've paid as part of that equity as part of the denominator in that ROE?
Phil Lembo:
Yes. I mean certainly the 225 is part of the total cost of the project. There will be construction costs that go in there but you can imagine that given the competitive nature of this business that discussing specific construction costs or other assumptions would be sort of I think letting a little bit too much out of the bag in terms of competitors. So I say we'll try to be transparent. I think you probably have an assessment of your own as to what a megawatt cost to build or something like that, but the 225 is part I'm just getting started and there'll be construction cost that get added to that as we go forward.
Julien Dumoulin Smith:
Sorry maybe this might be a little more power way to ask it. What about like equity contribution is like a percentage of the capitalization. I know you have ITC's and the capitalization but it's we taking 50:50, 30:70, kind of high conceptually?
Jim Judge:
Yes, Julien, I'll try it another way that we're not going to sort of disclose the financing construct of our bids, but we are saying that the dramatic increase in our core business CapEx, coupled with the cost estimates that we have to build out the offshore win suggest that we want to do about a $2 billion equity issue through this five year window to continue to maintain the track record that we have, and that track record is one that's worth noting in terms of credibility and consistency. I mean if you look at the slide 5, we have had a remarkable run whether you look at one, three, five, 10 year performance of outperforming the index and outperforming the S&P 500. And I go back, if you looked at twenty years I was CFO of NSTAR 20 years ago. I think the results; the performance results are even more dramatic. So this consistency and a believe credibility given the track record. And while the financial performance has been top tier here, for the majority of that window of time we're also in top tier in terms of financial conditions. So we've put together a financing plan here that is going to allow us to again be a top tier finishing performer at the same time of having the top tier credit rating. So the finance --the financing are fungible right in terms of we have cash needs whether it's core business or whether it's offshore wind. And what size here I think is one that's going to allow us to continue a wonderful track record that we've had. And we've got commitment and conviction to deliver on that 5% to 7% of earnings growth and dividend growth that we've had going for so many years.
Julien Dumoulin Smith:
If I can just jump in real quickly on the 5% to 7%, obviously, there's --you are rebasing after 325. How are you thinking about the sort of the shape of that to get to the midpoint? I mean you just raise CapEx, the same time raising equity, seems like it's about a nickel decline versus the prior baseline for 2021 but I'm sort of curious as you see this out play out through 2023. Are you still saying it is midpoint of that 5% to 7% versus the prior baseline?
Jim Judge:
Yes. We are. Absolutely and again just in terms of the rebase lining comment. I mean traditionally our track record has been set each year we would move into the new year and then add another year and this year we're adding two more years into that. So it's very traditional as to how we've addressed giving you the long-term guidance but certainly conviction in a stable way with being in the middle of that range is clearly what we're confident and delivering.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you, Julien. Next question is from Stephen Byrd from Morgan Stanley. Good morning, Stephen.
Stephen Byrd :
Good morning. I wanted to talk about offshore wind as well and just conceptually with your partnership with the Ørsted, obviously, Ørsted is a very accomplished offshore wind developer. At a high level how have you all determine the allocation of risk? Is it sort of essentially a true partnership where all risks are shared equally between the partners or there --is there a bit of a different delineation in terms of responsibility and risk between the two partners?
Jim Judge:
It's a shared risk 50:50. We collaborate on various benches into the RFP. The basis for the returns that we expect promote bids. So it's a true 50:50 partnership from a risk perspective.
Stephen Byrd :
Understood. And then when I think about the permitting process. I'm just not familiar with everything that would be involved or sort of other approval elements, and just thinking through permitting risk and other risks here. At a high level again, don't need to go through every permit, but how do you think about execution risk for these projects. You obviously have PPAs in place which is a huge element here, but how do we think about the potential risks of execution here?
Jim Judge:
That's about 24 -months permitting and citing calendar and site assessment work that has to go on. And then the US O&M is a key agency and then you get state and local permitting as well. Construction then is another 24 months, so right now where we are in the cycle is we expect South Fork site to be finished by the end of 2022 on that calendar. And the Revolution wind which is the larger one, 700 megawatts of PPAs to be done by the end of 2023.
Stephen Byrd :
Okay, understood and then just one last question just on Northern Pass. You highlighted on a slide which is really helpful all the permits and I guess the two next steps that I'm thinking about are the New Hampshire Supreme Court review and the Army Corps of Engineers process. Would you mind just talking a little bit further about next steps there and sort of how we think about those two pending processes?
Phil Lembo:
Sure. So the process has kicked off at the New Hampshire Supreme Court. They agreed to hear our case, received briefs on the case. So we expect that oral arguments would soon be determined in New Hampshire probably in the May timeframe and then there really is no precise deadline or timeframe that's required for the court to decide, but we would expect some decision to be in by the end of the year type of thing. So the Army Corps permit is really --there's been a preliminary assessment of that and really at this stage once all of the other approvals are made, we don't see any issue in moving through that Army Corps permitting process.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thanks Stephen. Next question is from Praful Mehta of Citi. Good morning, Praful.
Praful Mehta:
Good morning, guys. How are you doing? Great, so sorry but I'm going to dig into a little bit of the offshore wind again. And I think the question from my side is more conceptual as in you really on this call gone headlong into offshore wind, right. Did the focus on offshore wind is increase significantly, obviously, the partnership with Ørsted and I think the skeptics still there are plenty of skeptics on offshore wind more around the concerns on execution risk. Clearly, it's been done in Europe but the risks around large projects execution approvals still seems to be pretty high among investors in the US. How would you -- how did you get comfortable with that risk? And do you believe that there would be --that this would be executed on time on budget? Or do you see any big risk that allowed that you worry about?
Jim Judge:
Yes. I think it's a good question. I do think it's important to note that, well; there was a lot of discussion of the offshore wind. What's particularly notable is that the dramatic increase in our core business CapEx for the three years in particular is about 25% increase for the next three years. And that's driving a lot of our growth prospects along with the rate platforms that we have in place. Ørsted has a long track record in many countries of going through the sighting process of delivering on projects and actually coming in under budget and on schedule. I understand that it's a new process here in the US. The sense that we get is that policymakers in particularly in the states in New England. I have a very strong appetite for more offshore wind. We've been through some of the site assessment plan already in 2017 has been actually completed already. So we're basically right where we thought would be from a sighting and permitting perspective. And I think there's a lot of excitement around the demand and the interest in offshore wind. We're making commitments in the various states in terms of economic development et cetera. So I have reason to believe that the spending that we have in the plan of 2022 and 2023 is likely to take place as we go through the permitting process and begin construction.
Phil Lembo:
I just add a couple things to that another as more information that you have and the more certainty you have going into the process certainly reduces the risk exposure. And we've been at this for multiple years, three years basically to do site analysis to start the ball rolling in terms of permitting. So the lack of surprises there to somebody who maybe and it has just been a winner of a lease who has been in but really hasn't been able to do multiple years of wind and sea bed assessments and those types of things. So another comfort factor I'd add would be the amount of preliminary engineering and preliminary work that I has identified and move forward on a number of these items.
Praful Mehta:
Got you, that's super helpful color. And just in terms of returns, clearly the return sounds pretty good based on the current views of the --and the forecast. Is there in your assessment, given you've done so much analysis on it, where are the big levers that could drive returns downwards or upwards? Is it just construction or the other factors that we should be thinking about as well?
Phil Lembo:
Well, certainly construction is a big element in terms of --and as Jim mentioned, our track record and for our projects being completed on time and on schedule. And four sets track record for completing projects on time and on schedule are pretty high up on the list. So construction cost could be one of them.
Jim Judge:
It could, but we have a fair degree of conflict, did a lot of due diligence with our board in terms of entering into this deepwater transaction. And I think what's important to recognize is that now with Ørsted, we have the one and two closest leases to the mainland that means that the construction costs, the water depth are appealing in terms of a build out. We were worth --it's worth noting that the Ørsted lease that we entered into in 2016 cost was $600,000 and again it's -- at least it's very close to shore. Leases that are owned another 20 or 25 miles in deeper water move up transmission costs just sold a couple of weeks ago for one $135 million a piece. So I think that's a pretty good indication that there's a lot of value here. That this robust interest in offshore wind build-out and we have some significant advantages in cost and construction because of the locations of our two appealing leases.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you, Praful. Next question is from Antoine Armand from Bank of America. Good morning. Antoine.
Unidentified Analyst :
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to get a quick sense of new debt financing needs this year beyond the maturities.
Phil Lembo:
Typically, we don't give a precise schedule of our debt financing needs throughout the course of the year or the exact timing of it. But I do expect that for the maturities that we have we have $800 million of maturities that we would be financing, refinancing those and depending on levels of short-term debt, we could be doing issuances that are incrementally higher than that. So most of those would be at the various operating entities who have needs because they have their own construction programs and they finance their construction with internal funds plus debt financing. So $800 million is what the maturities are, and I would expect we will probably do something above that to keep our short-term debt levels down.
Unidentified Analyst :
Got it and then over the five-year period. So you have of [1275] of CapEx. You have this $2 billion of equity $500 million combined of treasury shares. And then I mean cash from ops so you probably doing at least $2 billion a year. So if you have added these all up you have very limited incremental debt issuance over the period. Is that a right way to think about this?
Phil Lembo:
Yes and then we have as we've mentioned a few times that we are additive to that $13 billion capital plan is the build-out of the offshore wind that I didn't here in that list of items.
Operator:
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you, Antoine. Next a question is from Angie Storozynski from Macquarie. Good morning, Angie.
Angie Storozynski:
Good morning. No questions about offshore winds for change, but a different angle. So would you be interested in an expanding your T&D businesses in New England? If there were to be a federal asset sales in New England?
Jim Judge:
Hi, Angie. This is Jim. We would be obviously interested at the right price in terms of expanding our T&D's core business. We have the long, long track record of being a disciplined bidder when you look at the transactions that we've done 20 years ago company that form NSTAR was done and it's seen as hugely positive from a shareholder perspective over that 20-year period. Seven years ago now we did the deal that merged NU and NSTAR into what's now Eversource. Again, a deal that was widely recognized as being a big win for investors as well as customers. And then we did water acquisition deal that we did last year which true to form was delivered on, it was accretive to earnings in the first year as we have indicated in the --they actually our earnings performance outperformed our budget or our expectations for that business. So whether it's T&D or the water business, we think our core platform is a successful one and we would be interested in extending, but there have been a dozens and dozens of transactions in this region that have taken place that we didn't win because again we were disciplined bitter. So it'll all come down to the value that we can bring to the transaction. And what the asking price would be for the acquisition.
Angie Storozynski:
But none of this is envisioned in or embedded in that $2 billion of equity issuances, right. This is just to finance your current CapEx plans and then you're not trying to shore up your balance sheets for a potential M&A deal?
Phil Lembo:
No. It's strictly for as I mentioned its capital --the capital plans we have and the investment activities that are in the five-year horizon.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thanks, Angie. Next question is from Andrew Weisel from Scotia Howard Weil. Good morning, Andrew.
Andrew Weisel:
Hey, good morning, everyone. That was a long time to not talk about offshore wind, kidding of course, but just one or two going back to that topic. Strategically, Ørsted obviously now on to Block Island and is interested in developing offshore in the mid-Atlantic. Would you consider expanding beyond New England and New York or you're going to stick to your former corporate name of Northeast utilities?
Jim Judge:
So, we will. Northeast utilities is an old name but certainly the assets that we acquired in the transaction with Ørsted were the deepwater North East assets. There were other assets that were not part of the transaction. So we see our competency in this particular region as opposed to across the US. Proximity was a fact there are other leases that the Ørsted bought in the process that were further down the east coast from the mid-Atlantic area. And we didn't buy into those properties. So we at this stage, we feel that the proximity is important. These two leases are right off the coast of Massachusetts and Rhode Island coastal core operations. So that was a factor in the decision at this point.
Andrew Weisel:
Okay. Then I know that you guys are very confident the construction will be on time and on schedule. My question is mechanically or procedurally what happens if you're not able to deliver on the obligations under the various PPAs? In other words how does the each state treat that potential scenario where the --did the turbines aren't spinning on time?
Leon Olivier:
I think, yes, this is Lee, Andrew. The issue the PPAs has certain provisions and adapted essentially required you to post more credit letter, letter of credit but the penalties are relatively speaking to the investment are minimal if you don't meet the in-service dates.
Andrew Weisel:
Okay, very good. Then just a quick one on the equity. If I heard correctly, Phil, I think you said that drip needs would come from the Treasury stock for the bulk of the $2 billion number. Should we expect block issuances as needed or it would be more like an equity forward deal?
Phil Lembo:
There are many different ways of doing that whether they be block trade or roadshows or forward or so in terms of an ATM kind of program. So not really prescribing specifically the intent, but certainly all of those would be or the method, all of those methods would be evaluated and we would move forward again opportunistically and in a manner that we felt was appropriate for the time.
Andrew Weisel:
Got it. And in the past few years one of the drip obligations been?
Phil Lembo:
It's $90 million to $100 million, anyone.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you, Andrew. Next question is from Paul Patterson from Glenrock. Good morning, Paul.
Paul Patterson:
Good morning. How you doing? Just a few quick ones the ROE in New Hampshire, you guys said that you're under earning your lot. I just wondering could you tell us what it was for 2018?
Phil Lembo:
We've just filed our final numbers are in the process of doing it. I say it's just shy of an 8%, it's below 8%.
Paul Patterson:
Okay and then with respect to -- know that a grid mod is not in the Connecticut or New Hampshire in your forecast, but I also knows that the grid mod docket has sort of been in held in abeyance for some, I'm not clear why. Could you sort of elaborate a little bit more what might be going on there?
Jim Judge:
Yes. I just commented with the new governor coming in there have been some changes. The former share of PURA has now taken a more significant job as the Commissioner of Deep. So I think it's got to do with the changes organizationally that happened with --when the new administration comes in, yes.
Phil Lembo:
And in New Hampshire it's-- they typically have a smaller staff than any of the other states. And in fact just recently they started to move forward in a more active way in terms of draft mechanism, or draft position papers that will require more, some more studies. So it's moving along and if there's no particular reason other than staffing at this stage.
Paul Patterson:
And then I think after this year, you're expecting O&M to be flat. Is that tied in any way to the CapEx that you guys have been investing or just is that just the savings that you guys are doing from just what you guys have often been doing? There's a cost containing.
Phil Lembo:
Well, certainly I did highlight on the call that certainly there the CapEx investment has driven improvements and high levels of reliability and safety and performance for our customers, but it also helps in terms of taking other costs out of the business. If you repair something that you don't have to go visit two or three times to repair, if you replace it you'd have some O&M savings. So certainly the O&M gets reduced as a result of it. So being flat is really a challenge because you've got inflation. You've got negotiated wage increases. So really you're taking kind of 2% to 3% of cost out of the business just to stay flat.
Paul Patterson:
Okay and then just on the offshore wind. Are you guys thinking of doing perm EPCs or anything like that with respect to the execution of the actual build out or how do you guys look at that? I know you mentioned that this Ørsted and what-have-you is it's got a good track record but other than that I'm just wondering anything any idea of up for EPCs or how should we think of that?
Leon Olivier:
Yes, Paul, this is Lee. I think the way to think that is that Ørsted brings all of the resident competencies that they need, that they just coming off building or in the process and building over 2,200 megawatts for the UK alone. And again as Jim said, all on schedule below budget and so they're very good shape for them. It's a core expertise that's what they do. So really wouldn't make any sense to bring it EPC. There are other developers that clearly will have to bring in an EPC because they just don't have that core competency.
Paul Patterson:
Okay and then the capacity factor, just could you remind me what it is that you guys are expecting for wind? Offshore wind.
Leon Olivier:
Capacity factors, they're on the range of 45% to 50% capacity factors on the wind, and it's higher in the winter when prices are the highest in the region including New York and so there's a great benefit in that winter period for reliability and price suppression as well.
Paul Patterson:
Okay and then just finally weather adjusted sales growth for 2018, could you tell us what that was?
Phil Lembo:
I didn't tell you what it was but for electric, Paul, it was and again I preface my answer by saying as a result of our great plans that we have in place 90% of our revenues all of Massachusetts, all of Connecticut are decoupled. So weather has no impact only New Hampshire is the only jurisdiction that is still, it's not decoupled but weather adjusted normalized for the year was down slightly like 0.2%.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you, Paul. Next question is from Travis Miller for Morningstar. Good morning, Travis.
Travis Miller:
Good morning, thank you. I'll return to the offshore wind if you don't mind. The agreement with Ørsted outside of the projects in the works right now. When we are thinking about that CapEx beyond and thinking out to the big potential what type of obligation as part of that deal with Ørsted and partnership with Ørsted. You have an obligation there to invest if say Ørsted were to make a decision to go forward?
Jim Judge:
No. With any opportunity we have the right to participate or not. There's no commitment or obligation to fully build out the 4,000 megawatt. We have an option to proceed or not.
Travis Miller:
Okay, on your own, based on your own economics and decision, okay. And then in terms of policy to again apart from the PPA is in place, are there any policies that need to go into effect in any of those northeastern states to promote offshore winds such that you could make it easier to go forward or are you going to be competing with other renewable sources on some of those non-identified projects?
Jim Judge:
Yes. Well, there's been a mixture. This clearly been actual offshore wind specific RFPs, the state of Massachusetts was the first to legislate it 1,600 megawatts need to be bid and it's specific to offshore wind. If it completed 800 of that with the first solicitation, we expect the next one to occur the first half of 2019 here. Additional legit legislation in Massachusetts has asked the Department of Energy resources to take a look at doubling that number to go to 3,200 megawatts. The state of New York has legislated 2,400 megawatts that they're going to do through multiple solicitations. Connecticut and Rhode Island have been active as well. In New York, the governor has actually suggested that he thinks that they should go to 9,000 megawatts although only 2,400 has been legislated to date. So the policy is in the form of offshore wind solicitations. One of the Connecticut solicitations that took place last year had offshore wind among other clean energy resources. And in that instance revolution wind project won an additional 100 megawatts, but there were also solar and nuclear commitments in that process as well. So the majority are offshore wind specific but there was some clean energy RFPs that would invite all fuel sources. A- Lee Now we just mentioned Jim that in Connecticut the governor has filed a bill yesterday a Senate bill that would add additional 1,000 megawatts offshore wind. So that's firming up as well.
Travis Miller:
Okay, great, now is1, 000 megawatts up a pure offshore wind. A- Lee Yes, Pure offshore wind.
Operator:
Thanks Travis. Next question is from Andy levy from Exodus Point. Good morning, Andy.
Andy levy:
Hey, guys. Can you hear me? Okay and I apologize if this was answered or that has been popping around so just get back on the equity. How much of the $2 billion is allocated for the offshore wind? The spread out.
Phil Lembo:
Yes. There's no specific allocation, Andy, is the direct answer. We would look at our total portfolio of construction and investment needs which we said is $13 billion over the next five years for our CapEx. And then add on to that the build out our share of the cost of the 830 megawatts of build out of the offshore wind. So looking at the total pot is where we would focus not specifically find it in that area.
Andy levy:
No. No. I understand that but if you didn't have the offshore wind how much equity would you be issuing?
Phil Lembo:
Well you're asking it the same way only differently.
Andy levy:
Yes, you could, Phil.
Phil Lembo:
As I said, the $2 billion of equity supports kind of our total CapEx and offshore wind for the next --
Andy levy:
Okay. So let me ask you different then. What's the proper capital structure for an offshore wind project?
Phil Lembo:
So that when you -- you did miss it, Andy, because we talked about cost.
Andy levy:
Okay. What's the bottom line of that?
Jim Judge:
That's a competitive process, obviously, we are not going to disclose the cap structure or the capital cost.
Andy levy:
But I guess your return on investment however you measure it must be based on kind of how you finance it right?
Phil Lembo:
Correct.
Andy levy:
Okay, that's not -- that something at some point will you share that with us?
Jim Judge:
Yes. We've been saying based upon actually Ørsted has disclosed an 8% unlevered IRR which is going to give us a return that we think would be a transmission like or better when you look at so the returns on equity that we would expect there.
Andy levy:
Okay and that's assuming that everything goes as planned or do you have a contingency built in into that?
Jim Judge:
We work with Ørsted building appropriate contingency is not only in terms of spending, but in terms of schedule.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thanks Andy. Next question is from Mike Weinstein from Credit Suisse. Good morning, Mike.
Mike Weinstein:
Hey, guys. And just one quick follow-up. I just wanted to explicit --have you explicitly say that just confirm that you basically have offshore wind, additional offshore wind in the equity number, but it's not in the CapEx plan correct?
Phil Lembo:
That is correct. It's not --it's not CapEx, it's equity investment.
Mike Weinstein:
Right. So there's a certain amount that's -- that's why the equity might look high to some people because it's not in as part of that $12 billion to $13 billion CapEx plan?
Phil Lembo:
That's exactly correct, Mike.
Mike Weinstein:
Okay. But you're not saying how much?
Phil Lembo:
That's correct also, yes.
Mike Weinstein:
Okay. Just wanted to get that out there. Thank you. End of Q&A
Jeffrey Kotkin:
All right. Well, thank you very much for joining us today. If you have any follow-up questions, feel free to give us a call or send us an email. We look forward to seeing you at the conferences in early March. Take care.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy Philip J. Lembo - Eversource Energy
Analysts:
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc. Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Andrew Weisel - Scotia Capital (USA), Inc.
Operator:
Welcome to the Eversource Energy Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Hilda, and I will be your operator for today. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Jeffrey Kotkin from Eversource Energy. Sir, you may begin.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thank you, Hilda. Good morning and thank you for joining us. I'm Jeff Kotkin, Eversource Energy's Vice President for Investor Relations. During this call, we'll be referencing slides that we posted last night on our website. And as you can see on slide 1, some of the statements made during this investor call may be forward-looking as defined within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risk and uncertainty, which may cause the actual results to differ materially from forecasts and projections. Some of these factors are set forth in the news release issued yesterday. Additional information about the various factors that may cause actual results to differ can be found in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2017, and on Form 10-Q for the three months ended June 30, 2018. Additionally, our explanation of how and why we use certain non-GAAP measures is contained within our news release and the slides we posted last night and in our most recent 10-K. Speaking today will be Phil Lembo, our Executive Vice President and CFO. Also joining us today are John Moreira, our Treasurer and Senior VP for Finance and Regulatory; and Jay Buth, our VP and Controller. Now I will turn to slide 2 and turn over the call to Phil.
Philip J. Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Thanks, Jeff. Good morning. This morning, I'll summarize our third quarter results and recap some recent state and federal regulatory proceedings. Overall, we're very pleased with the results for the quarter and for the first nine months of the year. We've been consistent with our expectations and we continue to target full year earnings per share between $3.20 and $3.30 per share, as well as our 5% to 7% long-term earnings per share growth rate. We've also made very good progress on a number of important initiatives and continue to provide top tier reliability and service to our customers. Starting with slide number 2, we earned $0.91 per share in the third quarter of 2018 compared with earnings of $0.82 per share in the third quarter last year. As noted in the earnings release, the $0.91 includes two non-recurring items. One involve the impairment of our investment in Access Northeast and the other involves some tax benefits. I'll provide more details on these impacts in a minute. Turning to our core business results, our electric distribution segment earned $0.55 per share in the third quarter of 2018 compared to $0.50 per share in the third quarter of last year. The primary driver behind the improvement was higher distribution margin. This resulted from new rate plans in effect in Connecticut and Massachusetts, and higher sales at Public Service of New Hampshire where we're not yet decoupled. Additionally, you may recall from our second quarter results that the implementation of decoupling this year for NSTAR Electric in lieu of our former loss-based revenue mechanism resulted in higher year-over-year revenues in peak use quarters, such as the third; and lower revenues in shoulder (00:03:55) quarters, such as the second quarter. Partially offsetting the higher margin was the absence of the New Hampshire generation earnings, and higher depreciation, amortization and property tax expense, mostly at Connecticut Light and Power. Our electric transmission segment earned $0.34 per share in the third quarter of 2018 compared to $0.31 in the third quarter of 2017. Improved results were due primarily to an increased level of our investment in transmission facilities this year. Our natural gas distribution segment lost $0.04 per share in the third quarter compared to a loss of $0.02 per share in the third quarter of 2017. The change was primarily due to higher operation and maintenance expense in the gas business. Our water distribution segment, which is new this year as a result of our of last December's acquisition of Aquarion Water, earned $0.06 per share in the third quarter of this year. More than half of Aquarion's earnings are typically realized in the third quarter when customer usage is at its highest. Eversource parent and other earned $1 million in the third quarter of 2018 or less than $0.01 a share compared with earnings of $0.03 per share in the third quarter of 2017. Parent and other results reflect two significant non-recurring items. First, the Access Northeast impairment of $26 million after tax or $0.08 per share represents all of our investment in the project. While we've made progress in most New England states in seeking natural gas capacity contracts with electric distribution companies, the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court ruled in the summer of 2016 that the state electric utilities cannot sign such contracts without a change in law And at this time, despite projected regional energy savings of $1 billion a year, we do not see a clear path to achieving new legislation in Massachusetts, particularly in light of recent unfortunate events outside of Eversource's service territory in the Merrimack Valley region of the state. As a result, we've concluded that our investment in Access Northeast is impaired. Also in the third quarter of 2018, we filed our final 2017 federal and state corporate income tax returns. There were several discrete items related to legislative tax code changes that reduced our tax obligations. Together, these reductions totaled $18 million or about – or $0.6 per share. Tax reform had no material impact on our 2017 results and we do not expect additional impacts going forward. From financial results I'll turn to slide 3 in recent regulatory developments. In September, we joined with the Connecticut Office of Consumer Counsel and the prosecutorial unit of PURA in filing a settlement on our Yankee Gas three-year rate proposal. The settlement is now before regulators for a review and we expect the final decision in the fourth quarter. The rate plan will be effective on November 15, 2018 and includes three moderate increases in distribution rates over a three-year period through calendar 2021. The authorized ROE will be at 9.3%, a slight increase from existing levels. We will also implement revenue decoupling and a capital tracker that will enable us to accelerate the replacement of older cast iron and unprotected steel pipe. We consider the settlement to be a constructive outcome of the rate review, and marks the second long-term rate settlement we've achieved in Connecticut just this year. The CL&P review, as you may recall, was settled in January and new rates were effective in May. When you also consider NSTAR Electric's five-year rate plan that was effective in February of this year, we find ourselves in a position of having long-term rate predictability in three of our largest distribution jurisdictions, with both decoupling and capital trackers for certain major investments. It means that for several years we'll be able to focus on just running the business to the best of our customers rather than spending substantial time and resources on rate reviews. We've also had what I would consider positive news at FERC in mid-October. FERC commissioners voted three to nil to implement a new methodology for reviewing and settling rate electric transmission ROE cases. Rather than solely relying on the commission's discounted cash flow methodology, FERC is now proposing that going forward it would average the DCF, the CAPM, and risk premium, and expected earnings methodologies in determining new authorized ROEs. FERC's proposed ruling was a result of four serial complaints that were filed between 2011 and 2016 by complainants who asked FERC to lower the ROEs earned by the New England Transmission Owners. You may recall that while all four complaints moved through the hearing process and secured ALJ recommended decision, only the first one was voted on by FERC. That 2014 decision was appealed to the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals which vacated the decision and remanded the case back to FERC in April of 2017. FERC's new methodology addresses the issues raised by the appeals court in the first case, but has not yet produced a new authorized ROE for New England. In its ruling, FERC asked the parties through the ROE complaints to file briefs and their own calculations for a new ROE for the region using the core methodologies for each of the four complaint periods. The briefing process will likely continue through early next year, and it's not clear when FERC will actually decide on each of the four complaints, the oldest, which dates back to October of 2011. Until we receive final rulings and as instructed by FERC, we'll continue to bill customers based on the commission's 2014 decision on the first complaint, which calls for a base ROE of 10.57% and a cap on what any single project can earn of 11.74%. Now FERC has not ruled on any of the four complaints yet, but in the illustrative calculation that FERC described in its order would result in a modestly lower base ROE of 10.41% and a higher cap of 13.08%. We are still a ways away from a final decision, but such levels if ultimately approved by FERC would not result in a significant changes to our overall transmission ROEs. While we await FERC's actions settling our actual ROE, we applaud the commission's intention to reduce the volatility of its ROE methodology. Using a DCF methodology exclusively resulted in wide swings in potential results depending on which companies were at the high-end or the low-end of the peer analysis, and whether the subject company was widely or lightly covered by sell-side analysts. And as you know, there were situations where a change in long-term growth rate estimates for a single company by just one analyst could result in tens of millions of dollars in higher or lower earnings for New England Transmission Owners. Additionally, it appears that FERC is tightening the threshold to be applied to existing ROEs before it sets an ROE complaint for hearing. We anticipate that changes will provide more stability in transmission returns, thereby encouraging more investment in a critical industry sector. This order follows the filing of a settlement in August regarding transparency of New England's transmission formula rates. The settlement provides increased transparency, simplicity and the opportunity for various stakeholders to review the annual rates. The settlement is now before the ALJ awaiting certification and after that it will go to the commission for a decision. It followed a lengthy and successful negotiation process between transmission owners and representatives of customers and state regulators, but it does not affect our ROEs. Finally, I'll turn to our capital program in slide 4. As you probably recall during our August 1 earnings call, we updated our 2019 through 2021 capital program, adding about $600 million of spending in our core business. We continue to refine our estimates for those three years in anticipation of laying out a revised long-term capital investment plan during our February earnings call, and one that will also include estimates for the year 2022. While we're not yet ready to provide revisions to years 2019, 2020 and 2021, I do expect that the February capital expenditures projection that we incorporate into our 10-K will be higher than the $7.1-billion estimate on this slide. More to come on that early next year as our plans get finalized. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Jeff for Q&A.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thank you, Phil. And I'll turn the call back to Hilda to just to remind you how to enter your questions. Hilda?
Operator:
Thank you. Back to you, sir.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thank you very much. Our first question this morning is from Greg Gordon from Evercore. Good morning, Greg.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Hey. Good morning, guys. I apologize I dialed in a little bit late because the Vistro call went a little long there. A little bit higher beta than you (00:14:53), so you got to listen to all the Q&A. One, can you just orient us a little bit on you know where the earnings growth targets are now and where your $7.1-billion rate base growth projection you think puts you inside that guidance range?
Philip J. Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Yes Craig. Good morning. Thanks for taking this call. I missed this conference call. And as I said before, our earnings growth target is driven by our core business. Our earnings growth is 5% to 7% and we feel comfortable that we'll be in the middle of that range going forward. And really that is driven by the capital program that we have in place at the transmission business, as well as various operating companies. In addition, the strong emphasis that we have and focus on controlling our costs. So really 5% to 7%, in the middle of that is where we've been guiding to.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Okay. So you're in the – you feel like you're tracking to the – all the guidance range today but you just indicated that you're confident that there's additional capital spending that could be added to that plan that would be beneficial to customers. We'll see that in February. Is that going to sort of potentially just extend the growth rate as you move out a year in sort of the – from 2019 to 2021 to maybe 2022, or could that potentially be additive to earnings potential during the current forecast period?
Philip J. Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Well it could be it could be both, Greg. As I said that in February we'll be adding a new year on so certainly we'll have to extend or talk about the extension of that 5% to 7% into that time period. And depending on where we land in terms of the customer program – the beneficial nature of these capital programs for our customers, depending on what that ultimately ends up being that could move you in the range. So, I do feel good about where we are and where we're headed.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Okay. One last question then I'll cede to the queue. Customers must be really suffering with high overall energy costs in the region just – especially during the winter months given the potential for ongoing scarcity events in terms of gas supply. How do you think about managing customer rate impacts? How tight do you expect the winter of 2018, 2019 to be, and how might that impact the reliability and how do you plan for that?
Philip J. Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Well, certainly fuel security and pricing especially during the winter are key considerations in New England and discussions have been ongoing for a while there as you pointed out. And we do – for our customers as you know we're not in the generation business and we buy our customers who remain with us on last resort or basic service. We go out into the marketplace every six months to secure their energy needs. And we do see that in the winter that that pricing of those contracts does spike, as a result of constraints in the region. So, we're trying to work through FERC, FERC has dockets open on fuel security there at the ISO. New England is evaluating fuel security and certainly it's an issue that we've tried to be in front of in the region. In terms of reliability, our reliability is really top tier and we continue to focus on that. But certainly if you take units out of the system like Pilgrim is planning to retire in 2019 that just puts more and more pressure on the constraints in the region.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Thank you guys. Take care.
Philip J. Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Thanks, Greg.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thanks, Greg. Next question is from Mike Weinstein from Credit Suisse. Good morning, Mike.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Hi. Good morning guys.
Philip J. Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Good morning.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Hey, I'm wondering if you could maybe bracket or talk a little bit about the annual capital spending that you anticipate from grid monetization in both Connecticut and Massachusetts going forward. I know that this is probably going to be a topic at the EI. But I just wanted to see if maybe you could start talking about it now in terms of how much you anticipate things increasing going forward.
Philip J. Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Well, thanks, Mike. I guess it is different by state as you point out you're asking about. In Massachusetts, we really have approval in our current rate plan and additional grid mod provisions for $233 million of spending. And really we're well underway of implementing, the core of that being our energy storage programs. We have two installations for that that are moving along well, as well as initiating our EV infrastructure build in addition to other automation types of projects. So right now that is the approved level in Massachusetts, $233 million. In the Massachusetts order, they set it up as just like we do more or less for our energy efficiency program where it's going to be an ongoing three-year cycle. So, as we get another year into this program, we'll be filing a plan for the next three-year cycle. So really at this stage the only thing in our plan is what's approved, the $233 million. In Connecticut, there's a similar – there's a kind of distribution planning /grid mod docket that's been ongoing for many months and really they – it's concluded just recently at the end of October with some hearings. There will be some briefs filed by the end of November, and a decision on that is expected sometime in January of 2019. And the decision likely will be more what types of things should be put into a filing to go in, it won't be an approval of X amount of dollars for Y number of projects. So, I think we're a little bit away on that in terms of Connecticut and New Hampshire is really in the early stages and has initiated a docket, but there hasn't been any programs approved at this stage. So, until we get a little bit more clarity, I don't think that by EI we'll have any more clarity than today. So, certainly we think that the programs that we've been implementing in terms of storage and EV infrastructure have a long runway and provide many benefits to customers over many years. So, likely in the future in other grid mod dockets, we'll be filing for programs that address those two issues as well as others. But at this stage, there's no further dollar level associated.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Got you. And on electric transmission given the FERC current – in the latest order and comment regarding the methodology in New England for determining ROEs, are you – if higher ROEs were earned on transmission, would that – are there any specific projects or things that are being held back right now by a lack of a policy or the uncertainty over it that might come out once FERC actually does solidify how it's going to treat those assets?
Philip J. Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Well, I think the direction is certainly seems to be converging around sort of the numbers that that we have in place here in Massachusetts now or in New England now and what FERC gave as an illustrative number in that order. So those numbers are good numbers for that business considering the risk profile and how long it takes the site and construct these projects, so certainly – it's in the appropriate zip code. So I would say there's nothing really that's being held back or nothing that would be advanced per se given where the plus and minus of where that FERC ROE and the incentives are right now.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thanks, Mike. Next question is from the Angie Storozynski from Macquarie. Good morning, Angie.
Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Good morning. So I have two questions. One if you could provide us with an update on your water growth plans, I'm talking M&A. I mean what's the current status of your bid or interest in that kind Connecticut Water? And separately on offshore wind, so we saw Ørsted's, the acquisition of Deepwater and I'm just wondering if that's in any way reflective of growth prospects for your joint venture with Ørsted or is it completely unrelated. Thank you.
Philip J. Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Yeah, sure. Well, thanks for those questions Angie. In terms of the first one, in terms on the water growth, our outlook hasn't changed there from the – we think that the opportunities in the water business are very synergistic with our business, and we like this. The water growth story there's a lot of infrastructure that needs to be put into the ground. We do think that most of the growth will be through the smaller roll ups of distressed or local water companies in the region. And then we also mentioned that with that there could be some opportunistic larger M&A. And as you point out, you asked about the Connecticut Water where we're not really involved in that at this stage. We had a bid that was trumped by the other party and we said that we were not going to put in a number that we didn't think created value for our shareholders. So we're not involved in that activity at this stage. And I think they're moving through their shareholder approval process at this stage, and also their regulatory process in both Connecticut and Maine. So, so far we're on the sideline there. And for offshore wind, we really have a very good relationship with Ørsted, we're fully aligned on Bay State Wind. And we don't see that there's any limit in terms of our opportunities there from what we had expected when we first got involved with the partnership with them.
Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Just one follow-up, so on Connecticut Water so you are not even participating in the regulatory approval process. I forgot, I thought that you were an intervener or you were planning to be an intervener in that case in Connecticut?
Philip J. Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Yes we are an intervener in the regulatory process, that's correct. But in terms of the bidding process for the company, we're not involved. But as an interested party in the area where they operate, we are interveners in the case.
Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Very good. Thank you.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thank you, Angie. Next question is from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Bank of America. Good morning, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Hey. Good morning team. So just to clarify a little bit on the last question, can you elaborate a little bit more about the opportunities reported from the Deepwater acquisition and how you see it? Just to be clear about this, which project sites are you all thinking about bidding for the upcoming – or as a JV thinking about bidding for these upcoming auctions? Does it in any way impede it, or conversely, if the added scale when you think about projects and potentially leveraging some of the infrastructure out of Deepwater vis-à-vis transmission or otherwise actually improve the JV's advantage for bidding into some of these upcoming RFPs? I just want to be a little clearer about that?
Philip J. Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Sure. I think you asked a number of things there. So just to clarify it, Ørsted and Deepwater were the, are the combination there it's not an Eversource activity, it's Ørsted and Deepwater. And as I said, we're fully aligned on the Bay State Wind partnership, our existing agreements with them anticipate this kind of scenario and we feel very good about the going forward opportunities that exist for the Bay State Wind partnership. We do have more RFPs scheduled in Massachusetts. As you know that some of those contracts in New England are working their way through the contracting phase or in some cases like in Massachusetts in the regulatory approval process, but there's opportunities coming about in New York. There's RFPs being developed for New York and there's an RFP expected in Massachusetts of about 800 megawatts probably in the first quarter of this year. In Connecticut, there's an open zero carbon RFP that exists. So there's many opportunities that exist that the Bay State Wind partnership is actively involved with and we feel good about what our prospects are moving forward.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Got it. Excellent. And then just a follow up here, obviously some of your peers in the state have encountered some fairly tragic events. How does that modify if at all any of your gas modernization efforts? I know there's a specific modernization filing in the state as well. I mean, just want to make sure we fully understand the read-throughs from the events with [indiscernible} (00:30:19) to you all and any potential upcoming filings that you might be making on the back as well.
Philip J. Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Sure. Well, just last night it was announced that there's going to be an independent evaluation statewide of the gas distribution network and the Public Utilities Commission is overseeing that, that's expected to last 90, 120 days. So there may be some items that come out of that review that impact capital plans, et cetera. We've had at our gas property in Mass and in Connecticut, a fairly active and aggressive program to remove and update our leak-prone infrastructure. And really that program since it has been in effect just a few years, we've doubled the spending on that, where we used to spend in the $30 million and $40 million we're spending $90 million on that to replace leak-prone infrastructure and move it out quicker than it would otherwise be. So between that and other activities that we've done in terms of combining operations and our focus on quality, our quality assurance and that type of thing and operator qualifications, we've done a lot and planning to do a lot in the space going forward.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Got it. All right. Excellent. Thank you all.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thank you, Julien. Our next question is from Michael Lapides from Goldman. Good morning, Michael.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Good morning, guys. Thank you for taking my question. Just curious when you think about the opportunities to manage O&M further and you've done post the combination with Northeast Utilities a sizable job of kind of controlling costs, where do you think the biggest opportunity sets are from here? I mean, it feels and looks like a lot of the low hanging fruit has already been gotten over the last few years, where is the next incremental step change if there's one?
Philip J. Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Well, Michael, thank you. We pride ourselves on really being a leader in terms of being able to manage our business in a cost effective manner. So ultimately, as you know, that benefits our customers. And since the merger, we've taken $500 million of cost out of business really, and at the same time improving our reliability and customer service levels to dramatically better than they were pre-merger. So you can lower cost and improve service at the same time and we continue to look for opportunities to do that, and a lot of that is driven by automation and consistency of operations between properties across states, standardized equipment, et cetera. So it is – as you point out, the runway gets harder, the low-hanging fruit, as you say, is – there's less of that around. But that doesn't mean that we're not focused on it. And we're still – we guided to 1% or so reduction this year, we're on track to do that. And really, I'd say, the next wave – when we merge, you can only do so much in the – at one time in terms of changing out systems and standardizing them. And initially some of the systems are more of what you think of as the corporate systems and now we're moving more into our field operations in terms of automation and providing more tools to better serve customers and lower cost. And those are being rolled out now and next year. So I think those will be the drivers going forward in terms of our ability to keep that process – that O&M focus going.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Got it. Okay. One other question for you. We've seen in the Northeast many of the other water utilities kind of aggregate or consolidate some of the municipal water and wastewater systems. How are you thinking about that opportunity set? More importantly, how do you quantify like how big of a potential addressable market that really is for you over the coming years, and if it's something that's easy to bolt into Aquarion or not?
Philip J. Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Well Aquarion has over many years rolled in municipal systems and I think we could do more there. I think just given its prior ownership model that inhibited that activity to some extent, so it's not going to drive customer growth by 10% but it's a steady 1%, 2% a year that you can add to customers by rolling up some of these systems. And really you have a good opportunity in the current environment. What – the current environment is – budgets are tight and environmental regulations are getting more strict. So you've got municipalities saying gee, do I really want to put more pipe in the ground and invest there, do I want a new school or a fire truck, and just with these environmental regulations do I want to be in this business. So, I think, you've got the opportunity and I think you have the environmental framework that would allow some of these to move forward. And we have actually a few pending right now at PURA in Connecticut for approval, smaller systems we still see that there's an opportunity to continue that path.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Got it. Thank you, guys. Much appreciated.
Philip J. Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Thank you, Michael.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thanks, Michael. The next question is from Paul Patterson from Glenrock. Good morning, Paul.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Good morning. How are you doing?
Philip J. Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Good, Paul. How are you?
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
All right. So I wanted to just follow up on the transmission ROE FERC thing, and I apologize but could you just – you did describe that there was some volatility potentially, I think, with respect to how that proposal might work and – if I heard you correctly. And I was wondering, what were the more recent complaint – what are your calculations for the more recent complaint periods? What would they be if the proposal were enacted as proposed? Do you follow me?
Philip J. Lembo - Eversource Energy:
I do, I do follow you, but I just want to clarify that what I spoke about was volatility, actually that's – because of the – introducing an average of multiple methods and by making it a little bit more setting the bar higher in terms of introducing new complaints, that that should mitigate some of the volatility.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. I got you. Okay. I heard you wrong I guess when I was – okay, that makes sense. Okay. Thanks for the clarification.
Philip J. Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Yeah it could have been my Boston accent. I'm not sure, Paul. So on that front I think we're in good shape. And we looked at the case and we're reserving, we have looked at our – all of the complaints and really the 10.57% and the cap on the incentives is really – we think kind of handles everything to that level. So if there's a change, we haven't gone through all the details of the calculations because the first calculation then sets the second cancellation, et cetera. But we don't see that there's going to be any big swings. We've disclosed a 10-basis point, forever we disclosed a 10-basis point change in the ROE could have a $3-million impact. But as I said, the current proposal that's out there, there's briefs that are going to be filed by the parties. All the parties are going to do that in January. Then there's reply briefs, so I think that some of those numbers might continue to evolve but I think we're in a good position right now.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. So just to understand this if – the way it currently looks to you, you'd kind of be in the same ballpark, this 10.41% base ROE for the subsequent complaint periods roughly speaking, I mean there might be some variation but it's kind of in that neighborhood. Am I understanding it right?
Philip J. Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Yeah. I think the way we're looking at it now from our preliminary take and again where we continue to work with all of the transmission owners, because this isn't just an Eversource item, this is a regional item that we see that it's about where it is. Right, you're correct.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. And then there was some discussion about incentives when they made this or at least there was some comments, statements. Do you foresee any change in the incentives that FERC has been historically granting in combination with this order or are subsequent to it, or do you have any sense about that at all?
Philip J. Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Yeah. I think that they're going to be looking at that. I think that was one of the silent items before, but that is something that I think will be addressed in these briefs and reply briefs that are coming up, but more to come there.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. And then I noticed that Northern Pass is still sort of a topic in New Hampshire. I think it was in the gubernatorial debate just recently. And I just was wondering if there's any – so, I mean I know obviously what happened there, but it's still sort of out there and there has been some issues associated sort of similar to Northern Pass with the (00:40:47) proposal. I'm just wondering if there's sort of any flavor you could give about where Northern Pass or the potential for another Northern Pass kind of thing, or Northern Pass 2.0, whatever you want to call it. How should we think about that going forward?
Philip J. Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Well, you may or may not be aware that the New Hampshire Supreme Court has accepted our appeal on the Site Evaluation Committee rulings. So, they did direct the regulators to certify the record and get that back to them next month. So there will be a process where that is evaluated at the New Hampshire Supreme Court in terms of our current Northern Pass proposal. So that still is something that's working its way through in New Hampshire. It's tough enough for me to forecast the timing of existing projects as opposed to speculating on what might be down the road. But there's certainly aggressive environmental targets that the region has. We've seen an uptick. And even in Massachusetts in the latest session that ended a few months ago, they authorized more offshore wind. And I just think that the tide is going to continue to be looking for projects that deliver clean energy into the region. So what that is right now I can't point to a specific project, but I think if you look – if you see what's out there in the discussion, it's certainly moving to more of that than less.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
I guess what I'm wondering is, so – and I apologize for not being more clear. So let's just assume that the Supreme Court that you – that the siting evaluation committee – I guess, the next step would be to see what the siting evaluation – to see how the Supreme Court ruling sort of works its way through that process.
Philip J. Lembo - Eversource Energy:
That's correct.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. And then after that I guess we just have to see what what's going on with that.
Philip J. Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Yes. That's correct.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. Great. Thanks so much.
Philip J. Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Okay. Thanks, Paul.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thank, Paul. Next question is from Praful Mehta from Citi. Good morning, Praful.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Good morning. Hi, guys.
Philip J. Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Hi.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
So maybe we touch on offshore wind first, the price of $65, that cleared, and just generally how do you see pricing for offshore wind? There clearly seems to be some disconnect in the market, I wanted to see if you think those prices are too low, or more broadly how do you see the opportunity set for offshore wind relative to the kind of prices that we've been seeing?
Philip J. Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Well in terms of the pricing, Praful, we did not win the bid, so the pricing that got accepted was below what we thought was an appropriate bid for the risk profile and the return levels. So, in terms of whether it's appropriate or adequate I think that's best to ask of the winning bidder for that standpoint. I think that – we had said that in the – from my previous comment you can see there's more and more activity going on out there in terms of offshore wind, more development. And I think as you get more in the ground or in the ocean with these projects, that you have a better supply chain. So I think that if you look at any of these kinds of activities, prices seem to move down, technology gets better, et cetera. So I'm not sure you know that, that's probably not the question you're asking but the specifics of a price or whatever I think is really up to the party that won at that price to really give some information as to why they think that's appropriate because obviously our pricing wasn't at that level.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Got you. So I guess another way of saying it is, if prices were to stay at these levels do you expect winning bids in the future or do you – I guess, is there still a disconnect?
Philip J. Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Sure, I mean, when you say in the future as I said costs change. Prices come down, improvements get made in the supply chain, regulatory uncertainty becomes clearer, so a lot of factors that enter into what's in a bid. You have the price of components. So a lot of factors are there, but you have to keep in mind, you also have tax credits that may not exist in the future. So what impact that has on the pricing and determination that people make too. So if you look at the price sort of absent any tax credits maybe that push – that signals for higher pricing and the tax credits have helped to lower it. So, when you say in the future, it's hard to really determine if – you have to give me what the tax situation is and some other things that you have to factor into the bid.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Yeah, no, agreed and that's super helpful color. So I appreciate that. And then just on Northern Pass quickly. I know I heard all the comments before, so just wanted to clarify, stepping back does that mean that there is still an opportunity given this legal process? Or is that going on more as a check? I guess just put it in context of like does this still – do you still see a realistic possibility of Northern Pass coming back?
Philip J. Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Yes. In a short answer, yes.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
All right. Okay, perfect. Good to hear. Well, appreciate that. Thank you, guys.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
All right. Thanks, Praful. The next question is from Andrew Weisel from Scotia Howard Weil. Good morning, Andrew.
Andrew Weisel - Scotia Capital (USA), Inc.:
Hey good morning everyone. First just a quick one on the Access Northeast impairment, is that an accounting item or are you no longer going to pursue the project or something similar?
Philip J. Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Well, it is an accounting item. It's an accounting determination driven by the facts and circumstances and what the accounting guidance is. So, just to elaborate on that though, certainly the legislation in Massachusetts would have to be in place under the current system to enable a contract to be signed. There was no such legislation that came out of the recent legislative session that ended during the third quarter. And as somebody alluded to early, we did have an unfortunate incident in Massachusetts that I think may provide difficulty in terms of getting legislation in the future. So, looking at all those facts and the impact that might have on future cash flows, that is a determination that we made to – that the project was impaired.
Andrew Weisel - Scotia Capital (USA), Inc.:
Okay. Understood. Then, lastly on the balance sheet, I'm not trying to get ahead of the February CapEx update, but how are you thinking about share repurchases? You always thought of that is sort of a backup plan or a support – a safety net to sort of speak, some of these mega projects you've been pursuing seem unlikely to require capital at least in the near-term. So, how much of a cash stockpile do you want to hold on to?
Philip J. Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Well, as we said and I will continue to say our business is developing infrastructure and certainly our capital plan – we've added to the capital plan, so that shows that we're investing more of our opportunities set into regulated infrastructure projects, and that would be my expectation that our investments will be – we have a large opportunity set for investments and that's what our focus would be and not really in the share repurchase mode. But we've done share repurchases in the past, people ask about it but it's not really at the top of the list.
Andrew Weisel - Scotia Capital (USA), Inc.:
All right. Thank you.
Philip J. Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Great.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thank you, Andrew. That was the last question that we had in the queue. So I want to thank you for joining us today. If you have follow-ups please give us a call later today. Good luck with the rest of the call. Take care.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Phil Lembo - EVP & CFO Lee Olivier - EVP, Energy Strategy & Business Development Jeffrey Kotkin - VP, IR
Analysts:
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Operator:
Welcome to the Eversource Energy Second Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Paula [ph], and I will be your operator for today's call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please note, that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Jeffrey Kotkin, Vice President for Investor Relations. You may begin.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you, Paula [ph]. Good morning and thank you for joining us. I'm Jeff Kotkin, Eversource Energy's Vice President for Investor Relations. During this call, we'll be referencing slides that we posted last night on our website. And as you can see on Slide 1, some of the statements made during this investor call may be forward-looking as defined within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties which may cause the actual results to differ materially from forecasts and projections. Some of these factors are set forth in the news release issued yesterday. Additional information about the various factors that may cause actual results to differ can be found in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2017 and on Form 10-Q for the three months ended March 31, 2018. Additionally, our explanation of how and why we use certain non-GAAP measures is contained within our news release and the slides we posted last night, and in our most recent 10-K. Speaking today will be Phil Lembo, our Executive Vice President and CFO; joining us by phone for Q&A is Lee Olivier, our Executive Vice President for Enterprise Energy Strategy and Business Development. Also joining us today are Jay Buth, our VP and Controller; and John Moreira, our VP for Financial Planning and Analysis. Now, I will turn to Slide 2 and turn over the call to Phil.
Phil Lembo:
Thank you, Jeff, and this morning I'll summarize our second quarter and year-to-date results. I'll recap recent regulatory proceedings; this has our updated capital plan and affirm on long-term growth rate. So overall, we're very pleased with the results through the first six months of the year, our media results are consistent with our expectations and we continue to target full year EPS of between $3.20 and $3.30 a share. We made good progress on a number of our initiatives and our regulated businesses that will enhance service to customers and support our 5% to 7% long-term EPS growth rate. I'll provide more specifics on those initiatives shortly but I'll start with Slide 2 and a review of our financial results. We're here in $0.76 per share in the second quarter of 2018 compared to $0.72 in the second quarter last year. Our electric distribution business earned $0.32 per share in the second quarter of '18 compared with earnings of $0.38 per share in the same quarter of '17. And just a reminder, that historically we reflected both, our distribution and our public service of New Hampshire generation in this electric distribution segment, so year-on-year comparisons will be impacted by the divestiture of these assets in January. So the quarter decline was expected and primarily due to lower electric distribution margins, I'll talk about that in a minute, as well as the lower generation earnings in New Hampshire generating assets, also had some higher property tax expenses in the quarter. Together those factors more than offset the benefits of distribution rate adjustments in Connecticut and Massachusetts. The lower distribution margins in eastern Massachusetts, primarily reflect the timing of revenues through NSTAR Electric's new decoupling mechanism that was approved in the recent rate proceeding. This mechanism is more reflective of a seasonal usage pattern in NSTAR Electric's former last state revenue recovery mechanism which was reflected radically [ph] over the years, so the new mechanism is more seasonal, the old mechanism was radical over the year. As a result, compared with past years we'll see higher revenues in the peak usage quarters, in other words really the third quarter and lower revenues in the other quarters. So simply put, the electric distribution segment is impacted by the generating asset sale and timing of the new decoupling mechanism, both as expected. Our electric transmission business earned $0.35 per share in the second quarter of '18 compared to $0.30 per share in 2017. Improved results growth -- we do largely to increased level investment in our transmission facilities. Our natural gas business earned $0.02 per share in the second quarter of '18 compared to about $0.01 to $0.02 a share in the same period of '17. Improved results were due primarily through much colder weather in the month of April resulting in increased heating related sales at Yankee Gas which is not yet decoupled. Our new aquarium water company subsidiary earned $0.02 per share in the second quarter consistent with our expectations. And finally, our parent and other segment are on $0.05 per share in the second quarter of '18 compared with $0.03 in the second quarter '17. And earnings in both years benefited from investments we've made in certain renewable energy facilities that we've discussed in the past, the impact of which is recorded in the second quarter of each year. Turning to year-to-date results, we earned $1.61 per share in the first half of '18 compared to $1.54 in the first half of '17. Our electric distribution business earned $0.65 per share in the first half of '18 compared with $0.74 per share in the same period last year. Again, lower results were primarily due to our New Hampshire generation event this year, as well as the timing of decoupling revenues versus the previous loss based revenue methodology. Our electric transmission business earned $0.69 per share in the first half of '18 compared with earnings of $0.60 in the same period of '17. This was also due to a higher level of investment in our transmission facilities. Natural gas segment earned $0.20 per share in the first half of '18 versus $0.17 in '17, the primary driver were higher sales resulting from colder weather in the months of January and April. As for our natural gas sales were up about 6.6% year-to-date compared with the same period in 2017. Our water distribution business earned $0.03 per share and our parent and other earned $0.04 per share in the first six months of the year. I should note that the most profitable quarter for [indiscernible] typically, the third quarter since water usage peaked during the summer time period. From results I'll turn to Slide 3 and some recent regulatory developments; regulatory decisions for our core business have been constructive and supportive of our utilities capital plans, designed to meet the ever increasing expectations of our customers. We've increased the rate of infrastructure investment to modernize our electric grid, enhance electric reliability, accelerated the replacement of older natural gas and water distribution pipes, and increased investments to meet our states environmental and clean energy goals. On May 1, our Connecticut Light & Power's new three-year rate plan took effect with an initial distribution rate of adjustment of about $64 million. Two smaller increases will follow in May of '19 and May 1 of 2020. In addition, the base rate adjustments we see CL&P, regulators approved the capital tracker for investments at our system above a base amount of $270 million per year, and these investments are aimed at making the grid more resilient such as smart switches, enhanced tree trimming [ph], upgrades to our polls and their integrity, and substation security. And these totaled about $75 million a year, recovery of these costs associated with these investments will go through the reconciliation mechanism. Currently a pure responsive process for identifying top priorities for grid modernization is underway, and we expect to file a separate grid modernization plan before the end of this year. We have not yet reflected any potential Connecticut grid modern [ph] investments in our distribution capital forecast. I believe our proposal could be meaningful as we work to enhance grid animation and two-way communications with our customers about real-time grid conditions, as well as consider investment in electric vehicle infrastructure and battery storage. Shortly, after we wrapped up our CL&P rate review in Connecticut this spring, we filed our first Yankee Gas rate case in about eight years. Hearing in the case are scheduled to begin this month with the draft decision due on November 14 and a final decision on December 5. The new rates would take effect in January of 2019. The rate application includes a proposal for revenue decoupling which we expect pure to implement since Yankee Gas is the only one of the Connecticut utilities without a decoupling rate structure. We've also proposed to increase capital expenditures, particularly investments related to replace one of our cast iron and unprotected steel pipes. The acceleration of these important capital projects will provide great service reliability and safety, as well as continuing to improve the performance of leak-prone [ph] infrastructure. Fuel leaks [ph] are good to the environment and will help to lower O&M cost ultimately benefiting customers. In our rate application we highlighted the significant improvement in key performance metrics over the past four years with no increase in base distribution rates. This includes a 45% reduction in Class 2 leads since 2014; additionally Yankee Gas's actual non-fuel O&M in 2017 was 3% lower than it was seven years earlier in 2010, another excellent story for customers. Turning from Connecticut to Massachusetts; we continue to move forward with resiliency investments at NSTAR Electric. This past spring the DPU approved $133 million of additional grid modernization investments for NSTAR Electric over the next three years. This is in addition to the $100 million authorized by the DPU in 2017 for two battery storage initiatives and initial electric vehicle infrastructure. As a result, we'll be investing a total of $233 million in grid modern projects which will be recovered through a capital cost recovery mechanism. In addition, the DPU instructed NSTAR Electric to file a three-year rate plan for continued grid modernization efforts for the years 2021 through 2023. We expect to file that plan sometime in 2020. Turning to Slide 4; I just want to pause a minute to discuss our capital forecast. Every year this time we commence our process for updating our long-term operating and capital plan. This effort concludes at the end of the year with the subsequent years operating plan, the earnings guidance that we've provided to you in February, as well as the long-term capital investment forecast we include in our 10-K. Since we published our most recent forecast, we've seen continued focus by state energy policymakers to enhance the electric grid, accelerate the replacement of aging infrastructure and construct facilities to meet the growing customer needs. We will provide you with a full update again in February but this time we believe that our capital expenditures in the next three years and that's the period 2019 through 2021 we'll increase by a total of $600 million. This brings our total core business CapEx to $7.1 billion from the previous estimate of $6.5 billion. This incremental capital will be split between $300 million for electric transmission, $200 million for electric distribution, and $100 million for natural gas distribution infrastructure investments, all to benefit our customers. The primary driver of this increased level of expenditure will be investments in resiliency and reliability that will allow us to continue to enhance our customer's experience. And as I said, this $600 million of expected increase in CapEx does not include any potential initiatives that may emerge from the grid mod reviews in Connecticut or Massachusetts. Our electric operations, you know, we need to accelerate resiliency investments and this was underscored by the very harsh March and May whether we referenced in our news release. To be more specific, on the electric transmission system we now plan to accelerate the upgrades of ageing wooden transmission structures and expect to replace thousands of them with new steel poles over the next several years. We're also focused on upgrade to certain substation equipment. On the electric distribution side we're seeing additional customer growth in the immediate Boston and Cambridge area which was resulting in the need to upgrade several key substations to accommodate this ever increasing demand. On the natural gas side, most of the additional spending is at NSTAR Gas as we accelerate the replacement of lead-prone beer [ph] steel, cast iron and unprotected code of steel pipe which accounts for about 33% of our mains. We are now also planning additional upgrades at our Hopkinton LNG facility which is critical to maintaining adequate supplies of natural gas for our customers during extended cold spells like the one our region experienced this past winter. At this time we're not anticipating incremental investments in our water segment beyond what we disclosed in February, and Slide 5 shows that our current forecast envisions average annual rate base growth for Aquarion of greater than 7% through 2021 compared with about 3% during the periods prior to our acquisition; and this estimate is only from organic growth projects. Turning to Slide 6; so relating to -- that relates to our CapEx revisions, these investments -- the $600 million combined with our normal struck [ph] cost management focus will continue to benefit customer through improved reliability and service. We are confident that we'll be able to achieve our long-term earnings growth around the midpoint of the 5% to 7% growth rate and that's without the Northern Pass access [indiscernible] or offshore wind projects or without any share repurchases for that matter. To be clear, assuming we're successful and we execute our current capital plan, continue to manage our O&M cost where we've always exceled, or caution [ph] we can grow earnings around the middle of our 5% to 7% projected EPS growth rate, even without the large projects. And I should add that our forecast does not assume that any of our states move forward with widespread advanced metering technology, we'd provide customers greater information for managing their energy consumption and which could involve substantial capital investment. In our grid modernization decision earlier in the year, Massachusetts said -- regulator said that the advanced metering technology was not yet timely for our implementation but they did express a commitment to reviewing advanced metering as a means to meet grid modernization objectives and intend to kick-off this project to evaluate the next steps for cost effective deployment. Additionally, Connecticut regulators are considering advanced metering component in their grid modernization review I mentioned earlier. As we've done in the past, we provide you with a new year-by-year capital investment forecast when we report year end results in February. We're confident in our ability to operate, maintain and invest in our core business to provide the reliable response of cost effective and technologically advanced service, there are nearly $4 million customers expect and deserve from us. That concludes my remarks. As Jeff mentioned, Lee is offsite this morning but joining for the Q&A and I'll turn the call back to Jeff.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
And I'll turn the call back to Paula [ph] just to remind you how to enter questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Our first question this morning is from Sharp [ph] of Guggenheim.
Unidentified Analyst:
So just a couple of questions on CapEx here. So obviously somewhat of a fairly healthy jump in CapEx; just as far as we think about recognition, should we assume the spend was sort of incremental to plan or more sort of a pull forward of spend?
Phil Lembo:
No, this is incremental to plan. As I said, we identified a lot of this just as a result of the harsh winter and the storms that occurred in the region over the first part of the year that really highlighted the need for incremental investment in our infrastructure.
Unidentified Analyst:
And then obviously, you've displayed a very strong level of confidence in sort of your growth trajectory without these binary risky projects. Is there any reason why we shouldn't assume sort of that same level of confidence as we move beyond your current trajectory of 2021?
Phil Lembo:
There is no reason you shouldn't expect the same level of confidence.
Unidentified Analyst:
And then just lastly, on sort of the grid mod; you guys sort of -- you're in the midpoint of your range as we think about your base spend, is -- is sort of as you think about grid mod, would -- assuming a fair outcome or sort of a base outcome is that enough to get you sort of to a top end of your range or is -- will that sort of clearly still support the midpoint?
Phil Lembo:
It's difficult to speculate because proceedings are just -- in Connecticut sort of just beginning as a smaller docket or another docket in New Hampshire -- they are all sort of at the beginning phase and beyond our current grid mod in Massachusetts since I said we're filing another three-year plan but that's not going to be for another year. So it really -- it would be difficult to speculate how much or what kinds of initiatives we would be expected to focus on, so I need a little bit more clarity before being able to put you in that point in the range.
Unidentified Analyst:
And then just on buybacks; just obviously given the higher capital outlook today and then sort of incremental upside we're going to likely see around grid mod. Are buyback sort of off the table at this point?
Phil Lembo:
Well, as I said, their growth rate -- the confidence we have in the mid-range of that growth rate does not assume any share repurchases.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Our next question is from Angie [ph] from Macquarie.
Unidentified Analyst:
Two questions; so the updated growth plan does look strong, and so in the context of that could you comment on how should we think about your continued interest in water M&A? And also separately, what happens with those bulky projects like northern part, like offshore wind -- should we assume that you will continue to work on these or are these basically now completely canceled? Thank you.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Yes, on the second point it's certainly activities that are going on on the project in terms of either siding or analysis to position us for success in the future; but as I said, there is nothing in the existing forecast period for significant investments or projects in that time period. In terms of water, again, we're interested in pursuing the Connecticut water transaction, we feel that we have a superior and compelling proposal that benefits customers, our communities, shareholders, employees, it's really highly complementary, and it's locally situated, it's in a territory of familiarity with us in terms of the region, we feel that the transaction will be accretive in the year -- in the first year of any kind of transaction; so that's the transaction that we're interested in at this time.
Unidentified Analyst:
I mean that transaction still has to be EPS accretive in the first full year after the closing, right. So this is basically the -- that's the flexibility across any potential high offers for Connecticut water that it has to be accretive?
Jeffrey Kotkin:
That is correct, we believe our proposal is of full and fair proposal, and it's -- it would have to be accretive in the first year.
Unidentified Analyst:
And lastly on Aquaroin; so the 7% rate base growth is actually already pretty healthy but when is that all can we expect any updates to your growth plan for that business?
Phil Lembo:
I would expect that we would pull -- that would be pulled into our normal operating and capital plan update, and if there is any change or an update we'll provide you that information in February when we give our full update.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Next question is from Mike Weinstein from Credit Suisse.
Unidentified Analyst:
It's actually Shank [ph] for Mike. I just wanted to see if any update is on the full ROE complain at this point given the recent commission of departure?
Phil Lembo:
Unfortunately there is no update at this time; really we're in the same situation that we were at the end of the first quarter.
Unidentified Analyst:
And so can you remind us on the inter-Connecticut work, just now you mentioned a couple of filings -- it was the second half of this year, and these are all recovered through writers mechanism?
Phil Lembo:
Yes, a few things that I mentioned that's going on in the regulatory arena in Connecticut as we filed for new rates at our Yankee Gas subsidiary first time in seven years. So that process is going on, I also discussed in Connecticut that there is a grid modernization, so this has been initiated by the Connecticut regulator to look at what types of activities in terms of resiliency and other clean energy objectives could be implemented in the state and that process would be ongoing through this year and possibly ending this year or early next.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Next question is from Praful Mehta from Citi.
Praful Mehta:
Thanks for the clarity on the CapEx; it was really helpful to see the organic kind of CapEx plans. And really just a question on that which is, is this a real change of heart in terms of how you pursue growth and look at growth given the difficulty you've had with the larger projects? Is that what we should expect now as the new normal -- the majority of your growth would be driven off of these kind of more stable internal kind of driven projects, and then you have the potential for bigger projects but that's outside your five to seven; is that how we should think about it longer term as well?
Phil Lembo:
Yes, I think our focus has always been on providing outstanding service to our customers and running, operating, growing our core business. And the strategic projects are related -- relate to energy policies that exist from time to time in the various states but our core growth, our focus has been -- and as that will be on our core business running that successfully and providing great service.
Praful Mehta:
And I guess in the context of those kind of strategic initiatives on the offshore range side; as of now you've not had the RFPs kind of going your way, where do you see the gap from your perspective in terms of the offshore wind out of speeds and where do you think it takes and do you actually see this as a big opportunity, as an upside opportunity for your growth story longer term or how do you kind of see that offshoring wind thing?
Phil Lembo:
Lee, you want to answer that?
Lee Olivier:
Yes, in terms of offshore wind, we see the potential over the next seven to eight years for probably somewhere between 5,000 to 7,000 megawatts of additional offshore wind between the [indiscernible]. We see the long-term offshore wind become a major component of the bulk power inside of New England. So you've got -- in Massachusetts you have additional 800 megawatts of authorization, that will likely come into -- in our opinion early next year. We will participate in that, you've got a bill in the Massachusetts legislature that would authorize another 1,600 megawatts of offshore wind; and so we see the potential for offshore wind to be large. Yesterday there was a kind of a zero carbon RFP that was issued in Connecticut, the RFP has the authorization for 12 terawatts of clean energy; so it could be Class 1 energy but also could be existing nuclear and hydro, so we see that as a potential opportunity for offshore would have been bid into as well as [indiscernible] they have authorized essentially 2,400 megawatts of offshore wind that's kind of a specific RFP to offshore wind and probably the first 800 megawatts will come up in late this year or early 2019. So we do see offshore wind as a great potential investment. Clearly, we were not successful inside of the Massachusetts RFP, I believe we put in a very compelling bid with the world's premier builder of offshore wind, we've stood -- we have told you very consistently we would not dilute the earnings of the company in wind for the sake of winning, we've put in a compelling with returns that were consistent with the current returns we have in transmission, and that was risk-adjusted. Now clearly others took a different view of that, perhaps took more risk and lower returns but that's -- we're not in this thing to win for the sake of wining, we're into win for providing shareholder value as well as the certainty around signing on with a company like we should never source to get this wind build on-time and on-budget and delivered to customers.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Next question is from Paul Patterson from Glenrock.
Paul Patterson:
I apologize if I missed this, crazy morning; but the Massachusetts legislation that I think passed yesterday?
Phil Lembo:
Yes.
Paul Patterson:
Then net metering -- I think that was taken out, it wasn't taken out, excuse me -- well, the provision was left in that so if took out how the DPU treat -- could you go over that a little bit in just how you see impacting it?
Phil Lembo:
I think -- to be honest, I think they finished at about one o'clock this morning, so some of the information is filtering out today. But I think the overall assessment is that you know, what came out of the legislature is kind of mutual, I think there is nothing in it that is really problematic or from that standpoint, is some increases in RPS provisions but some of the other details, I think we still have to go through line-by-line to assess what's in there.
Paul Patterson:
And then over the -- just if you could sort of update to sort of what are normalized numbers for the first half of this year? And over -- what you project them for being for the 2019 through 2021 period?
Phil Lembo:
Well, before I answer that I will say that most of our subsidiary is now quality coupled; so whether another -- most of our subsidiaries are now decoupled and as I mentioned early, Yankee Gas, when it emerges from the current rate proceeding that is -- it's sand will be decoupled. So really -- public service at New Hampshire would be the only subsidiary that is out there that's not decoupled. So weather impacts are less and less on us; so for '19 [indiscernible] last question, first, I would expect minimal impact because essentially we'll have fully decoupled rates across our companies. Specifically to answer your question, we had -- for weather normalized sales on the electric business; for the quarter we're down about 1.5% and same year-to-date for gas, weather normalized sales were up just over 10% and 8.3% year-to-date.
Paul Patterson:
So, when we're talking about the Ford outlook, I understand that you guys are decoupled, mostly. But I guess I'm just sort of wondering in general when we're looking at the sort of full demand picture and [indiscernible] I'm just sort of trying to get a sense as to -- I mean, I realize that a lot of this has nothing to do with demand media, that's got to do with grid modernization etcetera. But I'm just trying to get a sense as to what you see sort of just underlying fundamentals in terms of electric demand or over the next three years. Do you guys have that?
Lee Olivier:
Yes, I think that -- you know, I'll start by saying we're the number one utility in the U.S., number one rated for energy efficiency programs, and really our energy efficiency effort have really removed a lot of the energy demand, and peak demand from the system. So our programs are very effective helping customers lower their energy cost including lower REIT demand. In terms of general outlook, we see sort of sales being flat, in our region over the next few years, you know, the Boston area of this, you've probably been into the city, see all cranes and -- so we expect pockets. I think the best way to look at it as when I talked about our capital plan, there is pockets of growth that require investment, so you know I mean I'd be that the overall system growth is there but certain areas of the city are growing significantly and require investment. So I think let's move on a pocketed [indiscernible] that we see the big growth but overall it's probably flat over the next two to three years.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Next question is from Andy Levy [ph] from Exodus Point.
Unidentified Analyst:
I think I'm all set but just to make sure that I understand; so you're basically saying that your firmly in the 6% growth range, is that correct?
Phil Lembo:
Yes, in the middle of the 5% to 7%.
Unidentified Analyst:
So basically 6%, and just understand whether it's the poll replacement or AMI or some other CapEx opportunities that's what would get you above the 6%?
Phil Lembo:
You know, there is a lot of factors obviously, one of them is control of costs; O&M is the driver of moving in the range one way or the other, constructive regulatory decisions is another factor that may move you in the range one way or the other, and more CapEx is another factor. So there is probably a few factors that could move you around in the range a bit but certainly if there is incremental CapEx that comes out of the grid modernization or dockets that I alluded to that could enhance that number, correct.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Next question is from Joe [ph] from Avon Capital.
Unidentified Analyst:
Actually my offshore wind question has been answered, thank you, Phil. Since I get you here, just a follow-up on Andy's question, just to clarify; on your long-term EPS guidance the 5% to 7% based on the '17 actual or midpoint of '18 guidance?
Phil Lembo:
No, '17.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Next question is from Julien Dumoulin-Smith.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
So, I just wanted to follow-up, in terms of the 6% that you guys are talking about, how do you think about the earned ROEs across the subsidiaries maybe from today through that forecast period, just -- or versus the baseline year; I just want to understand how much of that is capital versus ROE improvement and piecing it out? And then secondly, just to go back to an earlier question on the grid -- grid mindset of the equation for Connecticut, can you give us a sense of the magnitude of the capital contemplated and maybe the low and high point there? I know it's early on -- I know it's difficult to comment earlier but maybe just follow-up on that.
Phil Lembo:
In terms of the ROE as you know we've just come from two very constructive rate reviews in Connecticut and in Massachusetts for the elective business. So those I contemplate that will be earning at those allowed returns and then Massachusetts, at NSTAR Electric and CL&P, the -- we are in for a rate review at Yankee Gas, we're below -- we're earning below our allowed return there that's creating the need to go in, as I said, we've spent seven years plus since we've been in for new rates there, so probably not a surprise. So I see that we could have some uplift there to get to a new allowed return level, and same in New Hampshire, we haven't been in for rates in New Hampshire and as you know, we've divested off our generating assets there, and with -- you know, kind of a little different business model in New Hampshire, so we're now in a position to move into New Hampshire for a rate review and expect to do that later this year, and again, it's another one of the subsidiary that's under earning, it's a loud [ph] return. So I think this ROE uplift from those two subsidiaries, the others are off of recent rate reviews and expect to be earning at/or their allowed rate of return -- ROE levels. In terms of grid-mod, as I said, it really is hard to say, it could be a few hundred million, it could be more than that depending on the extent to which the regulator wants to advance the infrastructure or storage technologies. So it depends on sort of what the basket of initiatives would look like that would advance what the state is looking for -- but I'd say it would be a few hundred million anyway.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
So maybe just to clarify the timing on the grid mod here in Connecticut relative to your usual planning process; I mean should we be basically interpreting this mid-year update as pretty much a draft version of the 4Q update? So perhaps borrowing a meaningful update in grid-mod in Connecticut it should be largely similar or I don't want to put words in your mouth here either?
Phil Lembo:
No, I don't think you should look at it like that at all. I think that what we've been trying to do over many years is that as new information becomes available to us and we identify changes to our plan that we would let you know so that I would look at this more as an ongoing process that we're just at the beginning stages of. And we still have another several months in our operating plan review to go, so I would say that likely, you will see other items included in that by the time we get to February.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
And sorry to just clarify -- clean up a little bit on Angie's [ph] question earlier on the water side just to clarify real quickly; your commitment to a cash and equity deal -- does there need to be a stock component here ultimately? And B) just to go back to make sure I heard this right, it needs to be accretive in the first full year, well whatever the composition is of leverage and I suppose share for share exchange?
Phil Lembo:
To answer the second part of your question, absolutely. We have and we continue to have a disciplined approach to looking at transactions I could highlight the previous deals that we've done in terms of Aquarion or the NSTAR and new deal or previous deals, all accretive in the first year and that's -- that would be the focus. The shareholder can elect cash or other -- you know, that's -- it's sort of an election in the offer to the Connecticut water at this stage.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
And you're committed to keeping that election open?
Phil Lembo:
That -- the poll is on the table, yes.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
We don't have any more questions this morning, so we want to thank you very much for joining us. Good luck with the other calls this morning. If you have any follow-up questions, feel free to send me an email or give me a call. Take care. Paula [ph]?
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect.
Executives:
Phil Lembo - EVP and CFO Lee Olivier - EVP, Energy Strategy and Business Development Jeffrey Kotkin - VP, IR
Analysts:
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI Praful Mehta - Citi Stephen Byrd - Morgan Stanley Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs Travis Miller - Morningstar Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Operator:
Welcome to the Eversource Energy First Quarter 2018 Results Conference Call. My name is Vanessa, and I will be your operator for today’s call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session. [Operator Instructions]. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Jeffrey Kotkin. You may begin, sir.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you, Vanessa. Good morning and thank you for joining us. I’m Jeff Kotkin, Eversource Energy’s Vice President for Investor Relations. During this call, we’ll be referencing slides that we posted last night on our Web site. As you can see on Slide 1, some of the statements made during this investor call may be forward-looking as defined within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities and Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on management’s current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties which may cause the actual results to differ materially from forecasts and projections. Some of these factors are set forth in the news release issued yesterday. Additional information about the various factors that may cause actual results to differ can be found in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2017. Additionally, our explanation of how and why we use certain non-GAAP measures is contained within our news release and the slides we posted last night, and in our most recent 10-K. Turning to Slide 2, speaking today will be Phil Lembo, our Executive Vice President and CFO; and Lee Olivier, our Executive Vice President for Enterprise Energy Strategy and Business Development. Also joining us today are Jay Buth, our Controller; Christine Vaughan, our Treasurer; and John Moreira, our VP for Financial Planning and Analysis. Now, I will turn to Slide 3 and turn over the call to Phil.
Phil Lembo:
Thank you, Jeff, and welcome, everybody. Today, I’ll cover several items; our first quarter 2018 financial results, an update on some key regulatory dockets, recent financing activity and our activities related to Connecticut Water. We had a strong start to 2018 with earnings right in line with expectations. We achieved some important regulatory outcomes and continued to provide very high levels of service reliability to our customers. As we noted in the earnings news release, we continue to forecast 2018 earnings between $3.20 and $3.30 per share and long-term earnings growth of 5% to 7%. I’ll start with our first quarter 2018 results on Slide 3. Earnings were $0.85 per share in the quarter compared to $0.82 in 2017. The primary driver for the increase was improved transmission segment earnings, where we earned $0.34 per share compared to $0.30 per share in '17. The increase was due to continued investment in our transmission system to maintain performance and improve reliability for customers. The electric distribution earnings totaled $0.33 compared to $0.36 last year. The decrease was primarily due to lower generation earnings resulting from the sale of our fossil generation facilities in January, and higher depreciation, property tax and O&M expense. As most of you know, we had significant storm activity in March of this year, very significant, particularly in Eastern Massachusetts as a result of a series of Nor’easters that hit us over an 11-day span. First of all, I want to thank our customers for their patience during our restoration work and our employees for their tremendous work efforts in these very difficult conditions. Overall, the response to our restoration work from customers and regulators was quite positive. The vast majority of the restoration costs, about $150 million, was deferred under regulatory mechanisms for future recovery. However, some costs were not deferred. And in the quarter, storm-related costs raised our O&M by about $0.01. Our natural gas segment earned $0.18 per share compared with $0.16 last year. The increase was due primarily to higher sales. This was partially offset by higher O&M costs. Our new water segment earned about 1.5 million in the first quarter. These results are typical for Aquarion in the winter when customer usage is at the lightest. Generally, about half of Aquarion’s earnings occur in the third quarter. At the Eversource Energy parent, we were down just slightly compared with last year and this was primarily due to higher interest expense. Slide 4 provides you with a status of where we stand on implementing tax reform across our regulated companies, both at the state and the federal level. I guess the best way I could characterize this is it’s a work in progress with our various regulators. We’re currently developing plans for passing along the benefits of lower taxes to customers and will make the required filings at various times throughout the year. On Slide 5, we profile the three-year rate settlement approved just a few weeks ago by the Connecticut Public Utilities Regulatory Authority and implemented just this week. We considered the settlement, the first that CL&P was able to achieve in a general rate case in 30 years, truly to be very good for all parties. It provides us with the resources we need to continue to provide great service to our customers, while at the same time providing both customers and the company with rate certainty over the next three years. Turning to Slide 6. On March the 27th, the owners of New England’s electric transmission facilities received some good news when a FERC administrative law judge ruled that the region’s existing transmission ROEs were neither unjust nor unreasonable. He recommended that FERC maintain the current ROE of 10.57% and the incentive cap of 11.74%. The case now moves to the full commission. As I mentioned earlier, we closed on the sale of our fossil units in January. The sale of the PSNH hydro units is pending FERC approval of the license transfer. Earlier this week, we priced nearly 636 million of securitization debt as part of the divestiture process. With the proceeds, PSNH is paying down short-term debt and to maintain its targeted capital structure is returning an equity capital component to the Eversource parent, which in turn will also pay down debt. PSNH customers are already seeing the benefits of divestiture in terms of lower energy rates that became effective earlier this year. Finally, turning to Slide 7, I’ll briefly discuss our interest in Connecticut Water. On October 19, we publicly disclosed that we have made a proposal to acquire Connecticut Water for $63.50 per share in cash or Eversource shares at the election of Connecticut Water shareholders. We strongly believe that our proposal delivers more value and benefits to Connecticut Water stakeholders than the alternative merger that Connecticut Water Board is recommending to its shareholders. It’s important that I reiterate a few things. Eversource will only do deals that are accretive to earnings. We’ll remain disciplined in our efforts concerning Connecticut Water and would not pursue a transaction unless we expect it to be accretive in the first year. The merger that created NSTAR, the merger that created Eversource were both accretive in the first 12 months, and the Aquarion deal is on track to be accretive in year one as well. Also, we remain confident in our 5% to 7% long-term earnings growth rate regardless of whether this initiative with Connecticut Water succeeds. Our rate base and earnings growth profile, which we’ve extended through 2021, is very transparent to the investment community and builds on a long track record of us meeting and exceeding our commitments to investors. Although relatively small in terms of overall Eversource, Connecticut Water would represent a very nice addition to our water business. Our superior proposal would combine Connecticut Water with our Aquarion water subsidiary, a Connecticut-based company. 85% of Connecticut Water’s 125,000 customers are in Connecticut. It would be an excellent strategic and geographic fit with Aquarion, which has 90% of its 230,000 customers in Connecticut. And all the other customers served by the two companies are in New England. By bringing together these two water companies, we would create the third largest shareholder-owned water company in the country, one that would be very well positioned to meet the long-term clean water needs of about 350,000 New England customers and their communities. Aquarion has been part of the Eversource family for only five months, but it’s easy to see why its J.D. Power customer satisfaction ranking is top notch and why it is regularly rated as one of the top places to work in Connecticut. Aquarion is a very well-run company. In terms of Connecticut Water, Eversource attempted to engage Connecticut Water’s board in discussions during the latter part of 2017 and early 2018. But Connecticut Water’s management team and board have not yet engaged with us. We were surprised when on March 15, Connecticut Water announced an agreement to be taken over by San Jose Water, an operator from the other side of the continent rather than engage with us. We already serve 1.75 million electric, natural gas and water customers in Connecticut. On April 27, we filed the preliminary proxy materials with the SEC, allowing us to begin a process of informing the shareholders of Connecticut Water of the facts surrounding the proposed San Jose takeover. We believe that a vote against the San Jose takeover proposal will send a message to the Connecticut Water board that it should consider Eversource’s proposal. It’s important to note that we are not asking Connecticut Water shareholders to approve the Eversource proposal at this time. We’re urging Connecticut Water shareholders to insist that members of the Connecticut Water management team and board just simply meet with us to discuss our proposal. That concludes my comments, and I’ll turn it over to Lee.
Lee Olivier:
Okay. Thanks, Phil. I’ll provide you with an update on our major projects and then turn the call over to Jeff for questions and answers. I’ll start with Northern Pass. On March 30, the New Hampshire Site Evaluation Committee issued a written order confirming its February 1 vote to deny us a permit to build Northern Pass. As you can see from Slide 8, we had secured virtually every other approval of the project on both sides of the border, and we anticipated receiving an Army Corps of Engineers permit once the New Hampshire SEC approval was received. As I mentioned previously, we were very disappointed with the decision given the billions of dollars of economic benefits that project would bring to New Hampshire, the significant reduction in the region’s carbon emissions it would provide as well as improvements to fuel diversity and electric reliability in the region. On April 27, we asked the New Hampshire SEC to reconsider its ruling. The New Hampshire SEC has scheduled a meeting on request for reconsideration on May 24, with a follow-up meeting scheduled for June 4, if needed. If the New Hampshire SEC ultimately does not reconsider its decision, the next step would be an appeal to New Hampshire’s Supreme Court. As you can read in our request for reconsideration, we have concluded that there were numerous flaws in the New Hampshire SEC decision-making process. We will keep you abreast on our progress as we move forward on this important project for New Hampshire and the region. Turning from Northern Pass to offshore wind in Slide 9. You’ll likely recall that in December, we and our partner, Ørsted, bid Bay State Wind into the first Massachusetts offshore wind RFP. We bid two proposals; one for 400 megawatts, the other for 800 megawatts. The Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources and the state’s three investor-owned utilities continue to evaluate the bids by us and by two other parties, and we expect the winning bidder or bidders to be announced on May 23. While that date is a month later than the evaluators’ original schedule, they’re still targeting filing contracts with the Department of Public Utilities by July 31. Connecticut is also conducting an RFP for clean energy resources. And last month, we bid approximately 200 megawatts into the RFP as well. A winning bidder in that RFP is expected by midyear. As you can see on the slide, there are initiatives in Rhode Island and New York as well. Earlier this year, Rhode Island Governor, Gina Raimondo, directed her energy team to work with the state’s electric utility to issue a procurement for 400 megawatts of clean energy by this summer. The administration is currently assessing its options for moving the process along. Ørsted is by far the world leader in offshore wind development and we are the leading developer of electric transmission and clean energy solutions in New England, so we consider our partnership to be the best position to provide our region with substantial clean energy and economic development benefits that offshore wind can offer. Now I’d like to turn the call back over to Jeff for questions and answers.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you, Lee. And I will turn it back to Vanessa to remind you of how to enter your questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions].
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you, Vanessa. Our first question this morning is from Greg Gordon from Evercore ISI. Good morning, Greg.
Greg Gordon:
Good morning. How are you guys?
Jeffrey Kotkin:
All right.
Greg Gordon:
So I’m just wondering what the cadence is going to be with regard to getting updates over the course of the year over how the capital expenditure forecast is evolving. And forgive me for – but let’s presume that Northern Pass winds up not being approved on appeal. You’ve obviously laid out on Page 9 the upcoming offshore wind RFPs. But are there other irons in the fire in terms of contemplated changes to the CapEx budget that are just sort of normal cycle aspects of the capital plan in other states that we might be looking forward to an update on later this year? And then I have a follow-up.
Phil Lembo:
Yes. Sure, Greg. This is Phil. In our year-end call when we provided the guidance going forward, we really talked about close to an $11 billion capital plan, which was $1 billion really higher than the previous plan we had. And that’s with no change in spending for NPT. So those are – that’s all additional spending whether it be in the transmission business. We have close to $1 billion of – I’m sorry, close to $0.5 billion in terms of spending at Aquarion and our water business. So there was a significant amount of capital and projects laid out at that time. We also talked about our rate base growth of being 8.1% and Northern Pass is really only 1.5% of that. So 8.5% CAGR on our rate base growth. So the rate base would be somewhere close to 22 billion at the end of the period. So as changes might happen to that, we would update you. But just laying that sort of spending plan and investment thesis out, there’s really no changes to it at this time.
Greg Gordon:
Okay. And there has been some contemplation that perhaps this Connecticut Water bid is a function of you starting to see a lack of opportunity to deploy incremental capital in your core electricity and gas businesses in ways that allow you to be sustainably inside that 5% to 7% earnings growth rate. Would you care to comment on that impression that some people are drawing from it?
Phil Lembo:
Yes, I’d say that impression is absolutely wrong in that we were confident in our 5% to 7% long-term EPS growth regardless of this initiative. So that’s what I’d say as a comment.
Greg Gordon:
Okay. Thank you, guys.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thanks, Greg. Next question this morning is from Praful Mehta from Citi. Good morning, Praful.
Praful Mehta:
Good morning. Thanks, guys. So I guess following up a little bit on Greg’s question on the Connecticut Water side. If you really don’t need this acquisition for the 5 to 7 growth, I’m struggling a little bit with the need to pursue this acquisition so aggressively. It is a relatively small acquisition, but you’re going to now spend time and resources to try and pursue the deal. I’m struggling a little bit to understand why kind of push it so much if it’s really not needed.
Phil Lembo:
I said it wasn’t to Greg’s question in terms of needed to get into the growth rate. It is an excellent strategic and geographic fit. Now if you look at the Connecticut Water franchise along with our Aquarion franchise, it really provides a compelling proposition for shareholders, employees and really the broader Connecticut community in general. Further, water investments of this scale are really infrequent to see something with $500 million of rate base. So the strategic and geographic fit and the compelling benefits to shareholders, employees and the communities in Connecticut and the other states that the companies operate in are the driving force.
Praful Mehta:
Got you, understood. And you said it is accretive to earnings. Is that in the all-stock case or cash case or either?
Phil Lembo:
Well, not to speculate on what the final outcome could be because as I said, we just want a chance to discuss our proposal at this stage. But you should expect that any proposed transaction with Connecticut Water would be accretive to Eversource. So that’s the way that the proposed transaction would be developed.
Praful Mehta:
Got you. And just finally quickly clarifying for Northern Pass. In your current numbers for 2018, is there any element of Northern Pass built in, in AFUDC or otherwise?
Phil Lembo:
Well, the project is a viable project and it is – we do have some spending in 2018 that we’ll have to make a determination as we move through the year. We’ve said that $300 million of capital is in the capital plan for Northern Pass. So we’d have to make a determination during the course of the year whether or not we’d spend that. But AFUDC is being calculated on Northern Pass.
Praful Mehta:
Got you. Thank you, guys.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you, Praful. Next question’s from Stephen Byrd from Morgan Stanley. Good morning, Stephen.
Stephen Byrd:
Good morning. I wanted to touch on two higher level sort of topics and one is just on – at FERC in terms of transmission ROEs. You laid out I think on Slide 6 just a variety of processes. In your view, is there some potential for a broader sort of review or streamlining of the approach taken at FERC in terms of assessing ROEs or just some way to deal with the logjam? Just at a high level, curious if there’s some way to think through a more efficient approach here to dealing with this sort of the pileup of complaints that occurred.
Phil Lembo:
This is Phil, Stephen. We would hope so. And we had talked about that could be – there could be an opportunity to do that just given the pancake of complaints that are there and the status that they’re in. And with the new commission able to look at things in a way that is different and comprehensive, because they have all the cases now laid out in front of them. I think we’d like to see something like that happen, but I don’t have any insight into whether or not it would move down that path.
Stephen Byrd:
Understood. And then just shifting gears over to offshore wind. I’d agree with your characterization of Ørsted. And certainly it makes sense to pursue these opportunities. The one topic I guess I think about with offshore wind is in Europe, the infrastructure is quite mature and advanced and they’ve been able to reduce the cost of offshore wind. At a high level, how do you think about the need in the United States to be able to adopt that infrastructure? Just any risk in terms of being able to achieve that kind of progress that’s been made in Europe. And just what kind of infrastructure needs the U.S. would have to be able to sort of catch up to where Europe is.
Lee Olivier:
Yes, Stephen, this is Lee. And I would just say that the infrastructure build-out in the U.S. is that it expands. And particularly, once you get much above 1,000 megawatts of infrastructure, you really have the catalyst to create a U.S.-based manufacturing. And probably some of you have seen recently there’s a company called EEW. It’s the German foundation manufacturer. It does about 80% of all of the wind turbines for Ørsted. They have announced that they’re going to relocate in Massachusetts. They’re looking at sites in Boston, New Bedford and in Fall River. So they see the opportunity. And in the conversations that we’ve had with other manufacturers, whether it’s with the turbines and foundations and cabling, they see the opportunity here as being very large over the course of the next 20 years to the extent it could be somewhere between 15,000 and 20,000 megawatts. So we think – when you view the outcome of the RFP, we think most people will be surprised about the decline in cost even in the beginnings of offshore wind in the U.S. We see the cost curve coming down and we see more development and manufacturing taking place in the U.S.
Stephen Byrd:
That’s super helpful. That’s all I had. Thank you.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thanks, Stephen. Next question’s from Michael Lapides from Goldman Sachs. Good morning, Michael.
Michael Lapides:
Hi. Good morning, guys. Thank you for taking my question. A little follow up. Just want to make sure when I think about offshore wind, who bears the risk if construction costs – and this will be a little bit of a first of the kind in the U.S. for whoever builds the project at this scale. Who bears the risk of construction costs coming significantly higher than what was originally forecast?
Lee Olivier:
The nature of these bids, Michael, will be that – there’ll be a fixed price, right. So the EDCs will essentially get a fixed price contract from whoever the winner or winners are. And obviously as in every project, you build in a contingency. The key thing with the offshore wind is you really have to understand the above-water conditions and the below-water conditions, and you have to have both of those well mapped out to determine capacity factors and the ease of construction. And you really got to pick a timetable and schedule for in-service that is supportable and that has some contingency built into it. And then the last thing I would say is you really need to pick a best-in-class development because if you don’t, particularly with larger projects, you’re taking on a lot of risk, which is why we picked Ørsted as our partner. So they are fixed price contracts. There is O&M. The potential for O&M escalation over the contract period, that will be embedded in the contract.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Mike, anything else?
Michael Lapides:
No, I’m good. Thank you, guys.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Okay. Thanks, Mike. Next question is from Travis Miller from Morningstar. Good morning, Travis.
Travis Miller:
Good morning. Thank you. I was wondering on the water stuff, how much – if you could quantify how much opportunity for inorganic or just acquisition investment is there in your area? And then what’s your appetite for going outside of the Northeast? And potentially investing in or acquiring assets and operations there in the water business.
Phil Lembo:
Travis, this is Phil. As I said in an earlier question, really the rationale for us is that it’s a strategic, but it’s also a geographic fit. So certainly, staying close to our geographic footprint is where we would be. The opportunity, there’s still smaller municipally-owned water entities throughout the region that some of them are having financial distress and they’re looking for a way to monetize the assets and that type of thing. So there is existing – Aquarion already has a number and has done a number of these smaller acquisitions over time to, as you say, sort of build up the inorganic growth, and that does add another percent or so to the growth rate. So there are still opportunities there because the industry is still fragmented. About 85% is not in investor-owned water company space. It’s really in the municipal space, so there are opportunities.
Travis Miller:
Are there hurdles – just in terms of the muni side, are there hurdles outside of – as we know, it’s a publicly traded shareholder votes, approvals, et cetera? Are there other hurdles that would stop you from going on a muni buying spree for lack of a better term?
Phil Lembo:
Yes. Well, I certainly wouldn’t use that term, buying spree. I would say that there are – in any municipal type of transaction, there are regulations that have to be overcome. There could be a town meeting. There could be mechanisms in place about where proceeds go from a sale. So it is a fairly lengthy process that you need to go through in terms of identifying a potential. Working that, it could take several town meetings to get something approved and that type of thing. So those would be the main hurdles there, I’d say.
Travis Miller:
Okay, great. Thanks.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thanks, Travis. Next question’s from Mike Weinstein from Credit Suisse. Good morning, Mike.
Michael Weinstein:
Hi. Good morning, guys. Phil, is there a possibility that you guys might seek water companies outside of New England and do a more national strategy similar to the one that San Jose is pursuing or many of – many other players are?
Phil Lembo:
No. I think in the last question, I said that the geographic fit was important to us.
Michael Weinstein:
Right. And just in terms of the FERC filing or the FERC ruling on the fourth complaint from the ALJ, do you think that’s an indication that they are – this is how they’re going to treat the remand that they’re not going to go back on their methodology and they’re going to stick with the original 2014 rulings?
Phil Lembo:
Well, it’s just – as you know, it’s an ALJ and you could say initial decision or decision there. But it’s really up to the commission to make the final determination. And I think we’ve all seen ALJ decisions that once they got to the commission, maybe moved in another direction one way or another. So I would say two things. One, it’s positive that the ALJ decided what they did, what he did. We felt all along that our ROE was not unjust and not unreasonable, so it’s good to have that support there. But in terms of then taking that decision to the full commission, it’s not a guarantee that that decision stays one way or the other.
Michael Weinstein:
Right. And Lee, I was wondering maybe you could give an update on charging station infrastructure potential projects or down the road at this point?
Lee Olivier:
Michael, this is for EVs?
Michael Weinstein:
Yes.
Lee Olivier:
We have as you know approval in Massachusetts to spend up to $45 million for EV charging stations. And working with the Department of Energy Resources, we have now put together a kind of a routing methodology, which is essentially a North-South as Boston being the nucleus and then an East-West from Boston out to Springfield. We’re in the process of going out with solicitations for sites that would host the chargers. And of course, our role here in this play is to basically build the infrastructure to the charges. We won’t own and operate the charges. The policy here in Massachusetts is let the marketplace sell that, which we think is the right thing to do. And this is – it’d be a couple-year rollout. We’re looking at about 389 sites, about 3,500 actually charging points that we would have. And I would just say that this is the beginning of the beginning in terms of the EV infrastructure upgrades that will take to really get the state and the region into this kind of a low-carbon electric-based economy, which we – where we see it going as we look forward. We see more use of EV’s over time, phase-out of carbon. And obviously that will generate more load on both the transmission system and on the distribution system. So we see the opportunity for more investment in upgrading both of those systems to support the electrification of the region.
Michael Weinstein:
Great. Thank you.
Lee Olivier:
You’re welcome.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thanks, Mike. Our next question is from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Bank of America. Good morning.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Good morning, team.
Phil Lembo:
Good morning.
Lee Olivier:
Good morning.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hi. So first, just wanted to come back to the details on the utilities real quickly. Can you comment on authorized and the ability to increase equity layers across the T&D side but especially the T side? I think you guys are using – not a hypothetical but a real capital structure there.
Phil Lembo:
That’s correct. We use the capital structure that’s consistent in the jurisdiction that those transmission facilities are in. And as you know, we have been in for rate proceedings recently, have positive outcomes in terms of constructive for both the company and its customers in both Massachusetts and Connecticut and those levels have been established in those recent cases. So really, there’s authorized levels that we’re targeting in each of the jurisdictions.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. All right, excellent. And then turning back to the offshore side of the equation. Can you guys comment a little bit about the scalability of the site? Obviously, it can handle a couple gigs. And we have – at least before us, Massachusetts this month, but can you talk about the sort of scale advantages when you think about Connecticut, Rhode Island, New York, and the ability to participate in all sort of in the concurrent RFPs? I just wanted to understand perhaps the scale and the timeline to seeing these awards happen if you think about it.
Lee Olivier:
Yes, Julien, this is Lee. I think in terms of the scale, we believe that we can produce at least 2,000 megawatts in potential outside of over 2,500 megawatts of energy from the lease that we have, which is about 300-plus square miles. That energy can be transferred into the region through a number of interconnection points, whether it’s at Somerset, Mass or in Bourne, Massachusetts, or potentially for cables that went down into New York, whether it’s in Long Island. And actually, you can reach New York actually overland as well through existing interconnections or interconnections that need relatively speaking minor upgrades. So we see the market for that lease potentially being up to 2,500 megawatts interconnecting into Rhode Island, Connecticut, Massachusetts and New York. Obviously, not likely you’re going to interconnect into Maine or New Hampshire because there’s sufficient other onshore renewable energy there. And so we see a very bright future for that lease and there will be additional leases that will come up for auction later this year, and we’ll assess our interest in those at that time.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Excellent. And now can I ask you to elaborate a little bit more about the risk factors on offshore, because I suppose we keep hearing out there in the marketplace around the perceived risks of being first to market but also, in general, around the technology. Can you speak to the risk-mitigating factors here? When you think about the economics that you’re pursuing for these bids, are you reflecting expectations to buy I suppose outage insurance-type products and things like that to address the risk profile here? And then can you speak to perhaps the – how you perceive the risk profile of these assets and the need to get compensated in terms of the cost of capital as well?
Lee Olivier:
Julien, when I think of the risk profile of these assets, the technology obviously is new to North America, but it’s not in Europe. There’s a fairly long experience now in Europe around these machines. Ørsted, who has developed the most offshore wind in the world, has an excellent track record of getting these projects built right on schedule, on budget, meeting their returns. They are currently engaged in the two biggest offshore wind farms or really kind of any kind of power facilities in the world right now, which is in the UK; one for 1,200 megawatts, one for 1,400 megawatts. So they’ve got a good track record. They know the machines and they have really some excellent project management skills, kind of proprietary software that evaluates the bottom. So they’ll completely evaluate, which we pretty much have already. We’ll do core bores to the bottom. We have wind data. We’re the only ones out in New England that have the floating buoy system. All of that information really boils down to one thing. Our ROEs really looks a lot like the leases in the North Sea in terms of wind speed, projected capacity factors, ease of construction. So we feel actually very, very good. As you know, we have filed and received this FAST-41 status from the Bureau of Energy Management that gives us a high profile in that approval process. We have received strong support for offshore wind from the Interior Department, including the Secretary, Ryan Zinke. And as said earlier, you’ve got to have a projection of in-service that is realistic because when you have a window for construction, you’ve got to meet that window or the next thing you know that you’re over cost. So we’ve put together a window of construction based upon the experience in Europe that we think is very conservative or conservative. And we have contingency that’s built into our bids. And also we’ll have returns on these assets that are transmission-like returns that’s good or better than those. And clearly, once you get in, if you’re one of the first selected, you’ll have first mover advantage in every other future solicitation.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Transmission-like returns being a slight premium to sort of the average distribution, right, reading between the lines?
Lee Olivier:
Yes, but premium to it.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Into transmission?
Lee Olivier:
Yes.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Okay.
Lee Olivier:
It’s transmission-like returns. So transmission returns are – you’ve got 11.74 in the region. They’re up around that range.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Excellent. All right. Thank you to the whole team.
Lee Olivier:
All right.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thanks, Julien. And we don’t have any more questions this morning. So we want to thank you for joining us. We look forward to seeing you in the upcoming conferences. And good luck with all the other earnings calls today.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s conference. We thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Jim Judge - Chairman, President, Chief Executive Officer Lee Olivier - Executive Vice President, Energy Strategy and Business Development Phil Lembo - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer Jeffrey Kotkin - Vice President, Investor Relations
Analysts:
Shar Pourezza - Guggenheim Caroline Bone - Deutsche Bank Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs Paul Patterson - Glenrock Unknown Analyst - Evercore ISI Josephine Moore - Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Operator:
Good morning ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the Eversource Energy Fourth Quarter 2017 and Year-End Results conference call. My name is Vanessa and I will be your operator for today’s call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later we will conduct a question and answer session. During the question and answer session, if you have a question, please press star then one on your phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Jeffrey Kotkin. You may begin, sir.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you, Vanessa. Good morning and thank you for joining us. During this call, we’ll be referencing slides that we posted last night on our website. I’m Jeff Kotkin, Eversource Energy’s Vice President for Investor Relations. As you can see on Slide 1, some of the statements made during this investor call may be forward-looking as defined within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of U.S. Private Securities and Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on management’s current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties which may cause the actual results to differ materially from forecasts and projections. Some of these factors are set forth in the news release issued yesterday. Additional information about the various factors that may cause actual results to differ can be found in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2016 and the 10-Q for the three months ended September 30, 2017. Additionally, our explanation of how and why we use certain non-GAAP measures is contained within our news release and the slides we posted last night, and in our most recent 10-K. Turning to Slide 2, speaking today will be Jim Judge, our Chairman, President and CEO; Lee Olivier, our Executive Vice President for Enterprise Energy Strategy and Business Development, and Phil Lembo, our Executive Vice President and CFO. Also joining us today are Jay Buth, our VP and Controller, and John Moreira, our VP of Financial Planning and Analysis. Now I will turn to Slide 4 and turn over the call to Jim.
Jim Judge:
Thank you, Jeff. I want to thank everyone who is joining us this morning for our recap of the year that we just completed and a comprehensive look at our opportunities and financial outlook for the next four years. To start, I want to congratulate our 8,000 employees for the great progress we made over the past year in achieving our vision of being recognized as the best utility in the country and as a catalyst for clean energy development in New England. Our region is mandating a 75 to 80% reduction in carbon emissions by the year 2050 and we plan to play a central role in helping New England reach its targets. Older coal, oil and nuclear plants continue to retire, only to be replaced by renewables and natural gas. Two large and economic new sources of renewable energy are hydroelectric power in Quebec and offshore wind southeast of Massachusetts. Through Northern Pass and Bay State Wind, we expect to be deeply involved in accessing both, and Hydro Quebec and Orsted are great partners. We continue to believe that Northern Pass is uniquely designed to significantly lower the region’s greenhouse gas emissions, reduce energy costs, and reduce our growing and increasingly ominous dependence on natural gas for power generation. We were surprised and disappointed, and I’m going to say humbled by the recent decision from the New Hampshire site evaluation committee rejecting the project. Clearly we have not fully addressed all the major concerns in New Hampshire yet. We expected the process to allow us to address what were legitimate concerns raised during the proceedings. If allowed re-hearing, we expect there may be an opportunity to address those concerns. In a couple of minute, Lee will discuss the steps we are taking to move the project ahead. At the same time, we continue to lead the way in bringing other cost effective energy solutions to customers in the region. We have completed the sale of our fossil plants, are well underway in the construction of 62 megawatts of additional rate-based solar, are beginning to build our first two utility scale battery storage facilities, are developing the infrastructure needed to expand access to electric vehicle charging stations in the region, and we are continuing to run the nation’s number one ranked energy efficiency programs. We also acquired Aquarion, adding a long term opportunity to move into the water delivery business. Rates are fully decoupled at our FERC-regulated transmission business, and on the distribution side we now have full revenue decoupling for more than 3 million of our 4 million customers. This allows both our customers and our shareholders to benefit from the implementation of our aggressive energy efficiency programs and not be hurt by them financially. Moving from our strategic initiatives, we also achieved significant operational, financial and regulatory successes over the past 12 months. We are working with regulators in each of the states that we serve to identify the investments needed to modernize the electric grid and improve its capabilities and resiliency. We have doubled the pace at which we are replacing older natural gas pipelines and are accelerating Aquarion’s water main replacement program. We also have a group of new commissioners at FERC who clearly favor infrastructure enhancement. We had a record-setting electric reliability and employee safety performance, our best year ever on both measures and are well within the top quartile of our industry peers. On the regulatory side, we achieved constructive outcomes to eNSTAR’s first fully litigated Massachusetts distribution rate case in over 30 years and recently negotiated and filed with regulators in Connecticut the first settlement of our Connecticut Light and Power distribution rate case since 1986. Turning to Slide 5, we reported GAAP earnings of $3.11 despite a very mild summer. We also reiterate our 5 to 7% EPS growth now using the 2017 earnings level as our base. We have both the investment opportunities and the balance sheet capacity to deliver on that outlook. Slide 6 shows that over one year, three year, five year and 10-year periods, our shareholders have benefited from our strong execution of our business strategy. Our total return has consistently exceeded our peer averages. In 2017, Eversource’s return to shareholders was 60% higher than our EEI peers and over 10 years nearly two times our peers’ performance. Part of that strong total return profile has been a rising dividend. We are committed to raising our dividend at a pace that is above the industry average and consistent with our earnings growth. As you can see on Slide 7, we announced a 6.3% increase earlier this month. In December, we were upgraded by S&P to A-plus, resulting in a two-notch difference between us and the second highest rated electric utility. We have the financial strength and the knowledge and skills to help our region meet some very significant energy-related challenges. Turning to Slide 8, the cold snap in late December and early January reminded us just how fragile New England’s wintertime energy supply situation is today and how it’s likely to worsen due to additional plant retirements before it improves. During that period, New England’s natural gas prices were the highest, not just in the U.S. but the highest in the world while just 200 miles to the east of us natural gas prices were the lowest in the world. This differential cost our region approximately $500 million over less than a two-week period. As Lee will discuss in more detail, the issue is not just economic. Running the region’s oil, coal and diesel fleet flat out for two weeks added over a million tons of carbon emissions, highlighting the critical need for additional wintertime natural gas capacity in New England. These challenges require a solution and we’re well positioned to lead in this effort. Before closing my remarks, I want to stress that each day our employees are on the front lines making us a trusted partner in our efforts to reduce energy costs, providing a top tier level of service and promoting our region’s energy policies. There’s no finer group in the industry and they are the primary reason I’m so optimistic about the company’s future. Now I’ll turn over to the call to Lee.
Lee Olivier:
Okay, thanks Jim. I’ll provide you with an update on a major project, expand on Jim’s comments on the New England winter supply situation, and then turn the call over to Phil. I’ll start with Northern Pass. Following our November earnings call, we received a string of good news about the project with various federal and state approvals listed on Slide 10. In late January, a combination of Northern Pass transmission and Hydro Quebec’s all-hydro energy offering won the entire Massachusetts clean energy RFP over more than 40 other clean energy projects of various scales and technologies. The RFP sought nearly 9.5 terawatt hours a year of clean energy for up to 20 years, and our bid was the sole winner. Clearly NPT is the best clean energy solution for the region. However, on February 1 we experienced a setback. The New Hampshire SEC had commenced deliberations on January 30 and had determined that Northern Pass possessed the financial, technical, and managerial capability to construct, operate and maintain the project. When the SEC members began discussing criteria known as orderly development, they noted the benefits Northern Pass would have in multiple areas, including promoting economic development, job growth, and increased property tax revenues, but the members indicated they were concerned about other items such as tourism, property values, and the impact on municipal development plans. Without discussing the potential conditions that could have been imposed to address those concerns, the SEC ended deliberations and voted unanimously to reject the project. Left un-discussed were key topics such as whether Northern Pass would serve the public interest, whether it would have an unreasonable adverse effect on aesthetics, historic sites, air and water quality, and the natural environment and public health and safety. As Jim said, we were deeply disappointed by the committee’s decision. We had a compelling case about the key benefits of the project, including more than $3 billion of economic benefits to the state over the life of the project, the elimination of 3 million tons of carbon emissions in New England each year - that’s the equivalent of taking about 670,000 cars off the road, the creation of 2,600 jobs in New Hampshire during construction, the $600 million of annual regional cost energy savings, including $62 million a year in New Hampshire, the additional $30 million in property tax revenues in New Hampshire annually and an average increase in New Hampshire’s GDP of $162 million a year, and a commitment to fund $200 million over 20 years for New Hampshire communities, tourism, clean energy, and economic development. We will ask the New Hampshire SEC to reconsider its decision shortly. If the committee reconsiders its decision and votes to approve the project, we expect to begin construction this year. The SEC decision has been reviewed by evaluators in the Massachusetts clean energy RFP. On February 14, the electric distribution companies with the Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources and the RFP’s independent evaluator notified Northern Pass that they will continue negotiations with the project through March 27, 2018, but in parallel they will negotiate with a runner-up project. Hydro Quebec leadership continues to support the project as by far the most advanced initiative to boost the sale of Quebec hydroelectric power into New England. We continue to work to advance the project forward and we will update you as we move ahead. From Northern Pass, I want to move to Slide11 and Bay State Wind, our 50/50 partnership with Orsted, the world leader in the development of offshore wind. Bay State Wind seeks to construct and operate at least 2,000 megawatts of offshore wind facilities 15 to 25 miles south of Martha’s Vineyard. Our site is very well situated to serve four states that are currently pursuing long-term contracts for renewable energy, including offshore wind. Turning to Slide 12, in December we submitted two bids into the RFP overseen by the Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources and the state’s three electric utilities. The RFP required all three bidders to submit a proposal for 400 megawatts of offshore wind but also provided an option to submit a second bid for as little as 200 megawatts and for as much as 800 megawatts. Bay State Wind submitted highly compelling bids for both 400 megawatts and 800 megawatts. The two other bidders submitted proposals for offshore wind generation and the bid’s evaluators are due to make their selection by April 23 and to submit contracts to the Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities by the end of July. We believe that our Bay State Wind partnership, the combination of the world leader in offshore wind development with New England’s leading transmission developer will provide evaluators with two very attractive options to consider. If we are chosen we would initiate the federal and state permitting processes in late 2018 and expect to be in service in the early 2020s. This RFP is just the first of multiple offshore wind RFPs in which we expect Bay State Wind to bid. Massachusetts is required to contract for 1,600 megawatts of offshore wind by 2027, but it is seeking no more than 800 megawatts in this RFP. Three weeks ago, Connecticut issued an RFP for certain Class 1 renewable resources, including nearly 200 megawatts of offshore wind. Rhode Island has indicated an interest in contracting for up to 1,000 megawatts of additional renewables by 2020 and announced a plan for a 400 megawatt RFP later this year. Finally, New York has indicated that it will seek proposals for 800 megawatts of offshore wind over the next two years. Bay State Wind’s favorable geographic location would allow it to bid into all of these RFPs, but due to competitive reasons, we have not provided investors with specific levels of expected investment in Bay State Wind at this time. Offshore wind is particularly favorable in New England during the winter period when wind speeds along the Atlantic coast are higher and more consistent and when the region has the greatest challenges for related fuel supplies. Furthermore, Bay State Wind’s facilities can be interconnected into our 345 KV AC system with minimal upgrades onshore. While offshore wind facilities would improve the region’s fuel diversity particularly in the winter, they are not nearly enough to offset the need for additional natural gas pipeline capacity. Moving to Slide 13, Jim earlier reviewed some of the cost and environmental impacts resulting from the late December and early January cold snap. The extended cold snap was similar to the polar vortex in 2013 and ’14. Natural gas prices soared as available supplies were directed not to power plants but to heating homes and businesses that had paid for firm capacity. Without adequate supplies of natural gas, New England grid operators turned to older, inefficient, costly and high carbon emitting oil and coal plants to keep the region’s lights on. During the cold snap, as little as 2,500 megawatts of the region’s 18,000 megawatts of natural gas generation was available to run on natural gas, a situation that drove the increased oil and coal usage. The intensive oil consumption meant that many of the region’s oil units were within two days of running out of oil by the time that the cold weather snap broke. Massachusetts’ Energy Secretary, Matt Beaton described the impact on air emissions as a disaster. Slide 14 illustrates the tremendous reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in New England that they have achieved since 2001, largely because of the switchover from oil and coal to natural gas. There is no question additional access to natural gas in the winter is critical to ensure reliability, lower customer cost, and to meet the region’s greenhouse gas reduction goals. We continue to discuss the supply situation with various stakeholders in New England and Washington to identify a path that will allow a brownfield project to move forward. We know that ISO New England is increasingly concerned about this wintertime vulnerability which will be further challenged when Pilgrim’s 700 megawatts of nuclear generation facilities retires next year. An important fuel security report that ISO New England published last month indicated that no later than the winter of 2024 and 2025, New England would likely require load shedding six days a winter for a total of 14 hours, and that was a reference case. In a severe case, that load shedding would become more frequent. In the 2018 Regional Electricity Outlook published last week, ISO New England’s chairman and its CEO wrote, and I quote, in the coming years as more oil and coal and nuclear plants leave the system, keeping the lights on in New England will become an even more tenuous proposition. A new group of Massachusetts business and civic leaders from across the Commonwealth, the Mass Coalition for Sustainable Energy, wrote Governor Baker and the state legislature leadership on February 7, expressing deep concern about, and I quote, the existing and rapidly increasing shortfall of reliable and affordable energy in New England. They noted, again I quote, by boosting our supply of natural gas, we can stabilize energy prices, reduce cost to ratepayers, attract jobs and new businesses while also speeding our transition to renewable energy and advancing our position as a climate change leader. We firmly believe that periodic load shedding during bitter winter days would be a terrible development for the region. We will continue to develop strategies that would allow for a pipeline expansion to proceed and plan to update you later this year on that progress. Now I’m going to turn the call over to Phil.
Phil Lembo:
Thank you, Lee. Today I’ll cover our fourth quarter and full year 2017 financial results, our new four-year capital expenditures and rate base growth forecast, the status of our key regulatory dockets, and discuss the impact of tax reform. I’ll start with our fourth quarter results on Slide 16. Earnings were $0.75 per share in the fourth quarter of ’17 compared with $0.72 per share in the fourth quarter of ’16. The primary driver for the increase was improved electric distribution results where earnings were $0.33 per share compared with $0.26 per share for the same period in 2016. The earnings increase was due primarily to a lower effective tax rate, lower non-tracked operations and maintenance cost, and modest revenue growth, and these were partially offset by higher depreciation and property tax expense. Our electric transmission segment earned a total of $0.32 per share in the fourth quarter of ’17 compared with $0.33 in the fourth quarter of ’16. The decline was due to a $0.05 gain we recorded in 2016 as a result of FERC’s approval of a settlement allowing us to recover certain merger costs through transmission rates. There was no such gain in the fourth quarter of 2017. We did benefit also from higher transmission rate base due to continued investment in our infrastructure. Transmission capital expenditures totaled $932 million in 2017 compared to $897 million in ’16 and $807 million in 2015. Earnings at our natural gas distribution segment totaled $0.08 per share in both the fourth quarter of 2017 and ’16. A 4.7% increase in the fourth quarter sales in ’17 was offset by higher depreciation, O&M, and property tax expense. At Eversource parent and other, we earned $0.02 per share in the fourth quarter of ’17 compared with $0.05 per share in the fourth quarter of ’16. The decline was primarily due to a $0.05 benefit in the fourth quarter of ’16 related to tax deductions on certain executive comp payments. Turning from the fourth quarter to full-year results, we earned $3.11 per share in 2017 compared with $2.96 per share in 2016. Our electric distribution business earned $1.57 per share in 2017 compared with $1.46 per share in 2016. The improvement was primarily due to a lower effective tax rate and lower operations and maintenance costs partially offset by higher depreciation and property tax expense. Our transmission segment earned $1.23 per share in 2017 compared to $1.16 in the prior year. The improvement was due to an increased level of investment partially offset by the absence of the merger cost recovery item I mentioned earlier. Our natural gas distribution segment earned $0.23 per share in 2017 compared with earnings of $0.24 in 2016. The slight decline was due to higher depreciation, O&M costs, and property taxes, and nearly offset by a 3% increase in sales. The Eversource parent and other earned $0.08 per share in 2017 compared with $0.10 in 2016. The decline was primarily due to the 2016 tax benefit I mentioned previously. Turning from 2017, let’s take a look at 2018 and our guidance. As you can see on Slide 17, we project earnings this year between $3.20 and $3.30 per share. Positive year-over-year drivers include investments in our electric transmission segment where we expect to invest approximately $900 million again this year on reliability projects and the addition of Aquarion Water, which we closed near the very end of 2017. We also expect to benefit from the improvement of results in our western Massachusetts operations which had been under-earning in recent years but implemented a modest rate increase at the beginning of this month. I’ll talk about our rate proceeding in a minute. Partially offsetting these benefits are expected increases in property tax and depreciation expense in the absence of PSNH generation earnings. As Jim talked about, we divested of the thermal business early in 2018. We completed the sale in January and expect to complete the sale of the hydro plants in the coming months, and the securitization of remaining stranded costs in the spring. We expect total operations and maintenance costs to decline by about 1 to 2% in 2018. From 2018 guidance, turn to Slide 18 and our new four-year capital expenditure and rate base growth forecast. As you can see, we expect to invest nearly $11 billion in our infrastructure over that four-year period. It is significantly higher than the $9.6 billion four-year plan we showed you last year. I’ll discuss some of the major contributors to that increase. First is our new water segment as a result of our Aquarion transaction. We project approximately $435 million of capital expenditures at Aquarion over the next four years. This compares to approximately $300 million of capital expenditures at Aquarion over the previous four-year period. The increase is due primarily to accelerated water main replacements and a major project to increase our ability to move water from Bridgeport, Connecticut area to address the growing needs in the Stamford-Greenwich area of the state. In the natural gas segment, we now project more than $1.6 billion of capital spending in our new four-year forecast compared with $1.45 billion in the previous forecast. Much of this investment is related to more rapid replacement of our older cast iron, bare steel and other mains and services. As a result of constructive regulatory frameworks, we are now able to complete replacement of these mains and services in 15 years in Connecticut and 22 years in Massachusetts, as the system has a larger inventory of pipes to be replaced. These needed investments will be recovered largely through capital tracker mechanisms. In both states, we have doubled the rate of replacement over the past five years, an investment that will help us lower our O&M costs by reducing the number of repairs and reduce also methane emissions, a measure which is followed closely by us and by the growing number of ESG investors we have. Within the transmission segment, we’ve split our reliability projects at CL&P, eNSTAR Electric and PS&H from Northern Pass. Reliability transmission spending is projected at $2.6 billion through 2021, an increase of nearly $680 million in the years 2018 through 2020, plus another $525 million in 2021. Since last year’s forecast, we have increased transmission capex at the T&D utilities by approximately $141 million in 2018, $260 million in 2019, and $280 million in 2020. These increases reflect projects that have already completed their required regulatory reviews or are currently already going through the necessary processes. Turning to Slide 19, you can see that we ended 2017 with about $16.7 billion of rate base, and this reflects the addition of Aquarion and the removal of the New Hampshire generation, so we added about a billion dollars of rate base in 2017 in infrastructure. The $16.7 billion total includes about $8 billion of electric distribution rate base, $6 billion of electric transmission rate base at the three T&D utilities plus $200 million at Northern Pass, $1.7 billion of natural gas distribution rate base, and nearly $800 million of water utility rate base. By the end of 2021, we expect rate base to total nearly $22.8 billion, including the $1.6 billion for NPT. In total, that represents more than an 8% rate base compound average growth rate from 2017 through 2021. NPT represents only 1.5% of that total compound annual growth rate. We know that many of those on the call will take our capex and rate base forecast models and compare them to what we provided previously. Slide 20 is designed to help you out by comparing our currently projected rate base at the end of 2020 of $21.8 billion with the $19.7 billion we projected a year ago. The additional $2.1 billion comes from three primary sources
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you, Phil, and I’m going to turn it back to Vanessa just to remind you how to enter your questions. Vanessa?
Operator:
[Operator instructions]
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you, Vanessa. Our first question this morning is from Shar Pourezza from Guggenheim. Good morning, Shar.
Shar Pourezza:
Good morning, guys. Phil and Jim and everyone, let me just bring this point again - without Northern Pass, you are comfortable with 5 to 7% growth, with or without this project, so in light of what you’re seeing with the rate base jump on Slide 20, how does the growth look with Northern Pass, because you seem to be comfortable without it at 5 to 7%, so I’m curious if Northern Pass does move forward, where you do land within your growth rate? Then as you think about your trajectory post how you’re guiding, is there enough projects for you to continue to be able to reiterate the 5 to 7%, given what seems to be perpetual infrastructure needs?
Phil Lembo:
Right. So I guess--you know, with anything, Shar, there’s many factors that influence where you end up in the range, and certainly with Northern Pass in there, that’s more infrastructure investment; without Northern Pass, that’s a little less infrastructure investment. So just be definition, that would probably put you higher in any calculation range. But you know, you have capital plans. We’ve demonstrated the ability over many years to add or find needed reliability projects. I think I’ve been asked in the past, where is our list of projects to pull out, and my answer is always, there’s not a list, it’s dependent upon the reliability needs of the region, and we feel that we are in the best position to address them. We’re good at identifying and moving those projects forward, so I feel confident that that will continue moving forward. We have a great team in place to do that, and as each of these projects goes in, it improves the reliability and helps lower costs to customers, so you have that. You have an ability to control costs that moves you around in the range. You could have rate case outcomes. Certainly our set Massachusetts case and hopefully soon we’ll have approval in Connecticut, certainly provides a nice strong, consistent framework that you can count on, but there’s always other rate decisions - we talked about the FERC decision that’s pending out there. So we’re comfortable for all those reasons that we’ll be in that range.
Shar Pourezza:
Okay, good. That’s helpful. Just on Aquarion, Connecticut regulators clearly highlighted to us that they were big fans of the transaction, so they touted it several times. There are roughly 31 regulated water utilities that are within the state, so I’m curious how you’re thinking about inorganic opportunities when it comes to water, within the state or outside.
Jim Judge:
Shar, this is Jim. I’d just say that we just closed on this transaction two months ago, and we continue to like the company that we acquired. We continue to like the water platform and the growth opportunities, whether it’s growing up small communities or municipals, which they continue to do, looking at larger transactions potentially, even public water companies that are out there, so I think that there’s plenty of growth opportunity. What you need to keep in mind is this is a company, Eversource, that I think has a long track record of doing deals that are smart for our shareholders, so we will be deliberate about what we do in terms of our next transaction, always with the shareholders’ interest in mind. It’s a very fragmented space, as you indicated. There’s something like 50,000 water companies, entities nationwide, so a lot of opportunity for rolling up additional companies and creating some standardization and efficiencies.
Shar Pourezza:
Got it, that’s helpful. If you don’t mind me asking one last one, thoughts on the competitive process for wind going into the RFP without Northern Pass. What I’m asking is if Northern Pass ends up going to someone, one of your neighbors for instance, because Massachusetts can’t wait for New Hampshire, does that actually indirectly position Eversource better for the next Massachusetts RFP? I’m sort of--you’re sort of like the home team and you could be left without any skin in the game, so how should we be thinking about this as an indirect read through the RFPs?
Jim Judge:
I think we’ve always claimed that Northern Pass was not dependent upon any specific RFP. You get a sense from our comments earlier and statements that you read coming from policy makers in the region that there’s a tremendous appetite for clean energy solutions in the region. We were thrilled to see the evaluation in Massachusetts conclude that the Northern Pass project was the most advanced and low-cost alternative out of the 46 that were bid, so that tells us that we’ve got a very attractive project. There are about 20 major permits that are necessary for a project like Northern Pass, and we literally are down to the final two or three, so I think from a--including the two and a half years for a Canadian approval, so we have a project that is very advanced, very cost effective for customers. It was proven that way in the competitive solicitation, so there will be an opportunity interest in receiving power over that line. It’s just that we need to obviously make sure that we address the conditions and concerns that continue to exist in New Hampshire. Our goal would be that the re-hearing would give us an opportunity to do that.
Shar Pourezza:
Thanks very much, guys. Appreciate it.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thanks Shar. Next question is from Caroline Bone with Deutsche Bank. Good morning, Caroline.
Caroline Bone:
Hey, good morning guys. On Northern Pass again, just to follow up on that, is there going to be any waiting here for a final written order, and how quickly do you expect the reconsideration process to go?
Lee Olivier:
Caroline, this is Lee. We would expect to file for reconsideration very soon, and the SEC essentially identified three areas that they believe were deficient. We will file in our reconsideration with cures that we believe would resolve their deficiencies, and that should take place over the next 10 days.
Caroline Bone:
You mean, when you actually file--
Lee Olivier:
Yes.
Caroline Bone:
--or when they respond, sorry?
Lee Olivier:
They have 10 days. Once we file, they have 10 days to respond.
Caroline Bone:
Okay, so even if you guys file something new with these cures, would they have to respond to that in 10 days? I guess the response could be something like, interesting - we’ll continue to look at this, or will they have to give you a decision?
Lee Olivier:
What they do is they have to acknowledge whether they accept our reconsideration motion or not, and then once they accept the reconsideration motion, then they would put together a schedule.
Caroline Bone:
Okay, got it. Then just back to Lee, you mentioned that you were working with--and this is on, I guess, a gas pipeline solution, that you were working with stakeholders in DC and New England. What sort of solutions are under discussion, and are you still focused on Access Northeast or is there another project you might be working on too?
Lee Olivier:
Yes, I mean, I think the big picture on this one is that there is a growing emergence of leadership in the region, obviously ISO New England but particularly key stakeholders inside of Massachusetts that realize that gas is not the enemy, gas is part of a solution, and if you want to ensure reliability and keep costs down and integrate renewables, then you want more gas, which is why we put those slides in there. As I’m sure you know, all you have to go do is look at Texas, which is the fastest growing economy in the U.S. - energy use is going up, costs are going down, and carbon is going down, so the integration of renewables, particularly wind and gas, provide that certainty about the economic future of the region. So again, in terms of projects, clearly it has to be a brownfield project. Our Access Northeast project was essentially mostly brownfield. We are looking at that to make that even more compatible and to have less of an impact on the environmental footprint that we have here in New England.
Caroline Bone:
But how do you get around the issue around how it gets paid for? How are you addressing the issues that you ran into in the past?
Lee Olivier:
There’s two paths there. Obviously there’s the state pass inside of Massachusetts, where you need legislation. We have ongoing litigation in New Hampshire that we believe could resolve that issue at the Supreme Court, and then there’s always the federal path. It’s a longer, more complex path, but there is the federal path through FERC and ISO New England to put in place a tariff that would ensure sufficient fuel supplies and reliability. So there’s two paths there. The state path I think clearly is more preferable just from the timing standpoint, so we continue to work both. Jim has met with FERC commissioners and FERC staff recently to discuss this issue, so there is just this growing awareness that something has to get done, and we continue to help to provide really information that is educational, that really gets people to understand gas is part of the solution, not the problem.
Caroline Bone:
Okay, thank you. Maybe just one last minor one on--I think Phil mentioned that you expected to pay $100 million to $120 million in federal cash taxes in 2018. How does that compare to your expected book taxes?
Phil Lembo:
For 2018, Caroline?
Caroline Bone:
Yes, I’m just wondering, that seems low. I guess I would have expected your book taxes to be higher. I mean, what’s allowing you to defer federal cash? Do you guys have some sort of NOLs or credits that might be driving the difference, or maybe I’m just calculating it wrong?
Phil Lembo:
Just regular timing differences that we expect the book to be higher, Caroline.
Caroline Bone:
Okay, all right. Thanks very much.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thanks Caroline. Next question is from Michael Lapides from Goldman Sachs. Good morning, Michael.
Michael Lapides:
Hey guys, good morning. Two questions. One, if the New Hampshire Site and Evaluation Committee does not selection Northern Pass after the reconsideration process, how do you think about the use of that capital that frees up on the balance sheet, given you wouldn’t be making the capex tied to NPT?
Phil Lembo:
Michael, I think what we’ve always talked about and I would still say, that we’d look first to redeploy that into infrastructure investments. We talked about that over the last year or so in terms of if we had cash, and we’d use cash from the proceeds from the generation sales to invest in infrastructure with our Aquarion water transaction. So our first look would be to develop additional regulated infrastructure.
Jim Judge:
Michael, this is Jim. I think as Phil’s comments earlier mentioned that the four-year plan without Northern Pass, if you adjust out Northern Pass, it’s actually a higher capital plan than what we had a year ago, so we found some projects there. I mean, if what you’re getting at, would you possibly use it for a share buyback, that is obviously an option that we have. We’re not announcing it. We don’t think that we need it necessarily to hit the 5%, but it’s a nice tool to have given our extremely strong balance sheet and our credit rating. So I think we have a lot of optionality in terms of how we can deliver, as we have in the past, on our guidance.
Michael Lapides:
Right, thank you for that, Jim. That actually falls into my next question, which was how do you think about what the right credit rating is for a company of your risk profile? How do you go through that quantitative analysis of what’s the optimal credit rating for Eversource?
Jim Judge:
We don’t actually have as a target an optimal credit rating. I think the recent [indiscernible] tax reform has sort of indicated that a lot of companies probably wish they hadn’t levered as much as they had. We’re fortunate to be sitting where we are - no equity issuances needed going forward. What we have offered in the past is top tier financial performance, and certainly the total shareholder slide that we have indicates that we’ve been able to achieve that. Coupled with that top tier financial performance is the number one financial condition, our lowest risk it the industry. That’s an offering that we continue to have and we’ve enjoyed and our shareholders have enjoyed, having that balance of a strong financial condition along with the performance. So clearly--you know, do we need to be an A-plus, two notches removed from the next best credit in the industry? Probably not, but we’ve been able to sustain that while putting up the earnings, dividend and share price growth. It’s a long answer there, but basically we don’t have a targeted minimum credit rating that we’re striving for. We’re going to continue to maintain a very strong financial condition while we put up good numbers.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Last item, and I hope Jeff doesn’t kill me for asking three instead of two, how do you--Jim, how do you and how does the board think about the environment for utility sector M&A, given a, higher rates and therefore potentially higher cost of debt; b, the impact of tax reform and really what it’s doing to your competitive balance sheet position versus other people’s balance sheet positions; and c, the pullback we’ve seen a little bit in the equity of utility stocks?
Jim Judge:
Yes, I guess it’d be situation specific. I think our board is thrilled with the outcome of the merger between Northeast Utilities and eNSTAR. I think we’ve exceeded their expectations. I think the water acquisition continues to pay dividends and is an accretive transaction, so we have a balance sheet and a currency that will continue to be strong. But again, we have been a very, very disciplined player in that realm and will continue to be. It’ll be, as I said earlier, transactions that are in our shareholders’ best interests rather than just growing for growth’s sake.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Thank you, Jim. Much appreciated, guys.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you, Michael. Next question is from Paul Patterson at Glenrock. Good morning, Paul.
Paul Patterson:
Good morning. A lot of my questions have been answered, but just back to Northern Pass, what’s the viability of Northern Pass without the Massachusetts RFP?
Lee Olivier:
Well you know, as Jim said earlier, Paul - this is Lee, we believe Northern Pass will be viable because if you look at the region and the region’s goals around carbon reduction and renewable energy, and here we are with essentially almost all of the permits complete - again, almost 20 permits, we really are down to the SEC permit and the Army Corps of Engineer permit comes after that, so we’ll have a project that will essentially be ready to go; however, obviously we need the SEC siting. So we believe just looking at the Connecticut energy strategy, and if you go look at the draft bills that are inside the Massachusetts senate, all of them call for more hydro, more renewable energy, so there will be a home, as we’ve said many times in the past, for Northern Pass. We just have to figure out what the timing of that is.
Paul Patterson:
Okay, so assuming that the NH SEC may not get back to you before the 27th and they go with whatever it is - the New England Clean Power Link, whatever it is, they go with the alterative, Massachusetts does, what would happen in that scenario? Would you guys continue, would you start construction and everything if after that you got the New Hampshire Site Evaluation Committee--in other words, if the NH SEC gave approval after the Massachusetts RFP had been selected, had gone with somebody else, would you guys proceed with construction and what have you, or how would things proceed in that situation?
Jim Judge:
Paul, this is Jim. Remember we have a partner here in Hydro Quebec. Hydro Quebec has expressed publicly a number of times their interest in exporting more energy in particular into the region. I think they would be interested in doing three Northern Passes, so as long as they continue to look to grow their bottom line by exports to New England, they would be interested in continuing with the project, so we can’t sort of speak independently about what that would look like if the Mass RFP went by the boards. Keep in mind that projects that are being considered for that Mass clean energy RFP still have a long way to go, including the beginning of the process on the other side of the border that took us two and a half years to get the Quebec approval. So I don’t think we need to address that contingency now, other than to say that we’ve got a project that’s cost effective, we’ve proved that in the Mass energy RFP, and we have a partner in Hydro Quebec that’s very committed and interested in exporting hydro power to our region, so that bodes well for this project going forward.
Paul Patterson:
Okay, then just finally, I apologize if I missed this, what was the weather-adjusted sales growth for 2017?
Phil Lembo:
For electric, Paul?
Paul Patterson:
Yes, for electric. Yes.
Phil Lembo:
It was slightly negative - you know, less than 1%.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. Thanks again, guys. Hang in there.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you, Paul. Our next question is from Greg Gordon from Evercore ISI. Good morning, Greg.
Unknown Analyst:
Hey Jeff, it’s actually [indiscernible] on for Greg. Good morning.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Hi, how are you?
Unknown Analyst:
Good, excellent. Just wanted to follow up, I think you stated this in your prepared remarks, but the rate base on Northern Pass is roughly 1.5, 1.6 billion, right, and then the new rate base for 2020 with the tax reform and all the capex is roughly 2 billion higher, so are we thinking about this the right way, that basically the reason why you’re still comfortable with your 5 to 7% is essentially you have a 2 billion higher rate base number on the back of capex and tax reform, so even if you don’t go ahead with Northern Pass, you can still hit your ’20 rate base numbers and your 5 to 7% earnings score? Is that the right way to put it?
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Yes, it is. That’s the correct way to look at it.
Unknown Analyst:
Excellent, thank you.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
All right, thank you. Next question is from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Bank of America. Good morning, Julien.
Josephine Moore:
Good morning, it’s actually Josephine here. How are you guys?
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Hi Josephine.
Josephine Moore:
I know we’ve talked a lot about the Northern Pass already, but I was just curious how much Northern Pass earnings, if you do see it, is in the 2018 guidance?
Phil Lembo:
What we’ve said is--I think Lee mentioned in his remarks, if everything were to progress during the year, there might be a small amount of capex, $300 million or so, started in 2018, there’s probably a few cents related to AFUDC related to that.
Josephine Moore:
Okay, then could you comment on where ROEs are trending at Public Service New Hampshire and Yankee Gas after this cold winter, and your thoughts on going in for a rate case on those jurisdictions?
Phil Lembo:
Yes, so we have not announced any plans to go in, but we do have-- I mentioned in my remarks that in each of the jurisdictions, we’re looking to develop plans to--how we’re going to credit back the ADIT to customers, so that could be an opportunity that during those--during that process, that those two things could be tied together, but we don’t have plans there. I would say that they’re trending close to their allowed--they're probably under-performing just slightly in both those areas. Neither one of those have decoupled rates - that would be something that we’d look to do if we went in. Certainly in New Hampshire where we’re divesting of the generating assets, it makes sense at some point in the not-too-distant future to make sure all the rates are re-coordinated, that reflects the absence of generation.
Josephine Moore:
Great. Then just one last question - I know it’s late here already, could you just comment on where your FFO to debt metrics are currently and how much latitude there is for any transactions or returns of capital to shareholders?
Phil Lembo:
Sure. The FFO metrics for our rating, we deliver in the high teens, so that’s where those metrics are. So as Jim said, the balance sheet has capacity for optionality, and we could take advantage of that, but they're in the high teens, above the target ranges.
Josephine Moore:
Got it, okay. That’s all on my end. Thank you very much.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thanks Josephine. One more question, and I think he’s still online. Is Praful Mehta from Citi still on the line? I think that’s probably a no. So alright, with that, we don’t have any more questions. Thank you for joining us this morning. I know we went over a bit, but if you have any follow-up, please give us a call this afternoon. Take care.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s conference. We thank you for participating and you may now disconnect.
Executives:
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy
Analysts:
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research) Jerimiah Booream - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Caroline V. Bone - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC
Operator:
Welcome to the Eversource Energy Third Quarter Earnings Call. My name is Christine, and I will be the operator for today's call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Jeffrey Kotkin. You may begin.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thank you, Christine. Good morning and thank you for joining us. I'm Jeff Kotkin, Eversource Energy's Vice President for Investor Relations. As you can see on Slide 1, some of the statements made during this investor call, may be forward-looking as defined within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations, and are subject to risk and uncertainty, which may cause the actual results to differ materially from forecasts and projections. Some of these factors are set forth in the news release issued yesterday. Additional information about the various factors that may cause actual results to differ can be found in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2016, and the 10-Q for the three months ended June 30, 2017. Additionally, our explanation of how and why we use certain non-GAAP measures is contained within our news release and the slides we posted last night on our web site under Presentations and Webcasts, and in our most recent 10-K. Turning to Slide 2, speaking today will be Phil Lembo, our Executive Vice President and CFO; and Lee Olivier, our Executive Vice President for Enterprise Energy Strategy and Business Development. Also joining us today are Jay Buth, our Vice President and Controller; John Moreira, our Vice President of Financial Planning and Analysis; and Christine Vaughan, our Treasurer and Vice President for Regulatory. Now, I will turn to Slide 3 and turn over the call to Phil.
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Thank you, Jeff. Today, I'll cover our third quarter and year-to-date financial results, the status of key regulatory dockets, the status of our Aquarion Water Company transaction, and give an update on our capital plan and several of the transmission projects. So, let's turn to our quarterly financial results on Slide 3. Earnings were $0.82 per share in the third quarter of 2017 compared to $0.83 per share in 2016. The primary drivers of our results were higher Electric Transmission earnings, being offset by lower Electric Distribution results. Our Transmission segment earned $0.31 per share in the third quarter of 2017, compared with $0.28 per share in the third quarter of 2016. The primary driver here for these earnings was higher transmission rate base. We've invested $600 million in our transmission system this year through September and our transmission capital plan for the year is just under $1 billion. On the Electric Distribution side, we earned $0.50 per share in the third quarter of 2017. This compares to earnings of $0.53 per share in 2016. This decrease was primarily due to lower sales, reflecting much milder weather we experienced in July and August this year compared to 2016. This primarily impacted NSTAR Electric and our New Hampshire -- Public Service of New Hampshire operation, neither of which has yet to implement revenue decoupling. In Boston, for example, cooling degree days were down nearly 34% in the third quarter of 2017 compared to the same period in 2016. This is nearly 8% below normal in terms of cooling degree days for the third quarter. And not only was it mild overall in the summer, but additionally, we never really had a hot stretch of weather or a heat wave, so to speak. So, peak loads were modest and demand-related revenue also declined. So in addition to lower electric revenues, we recorded higher property tax, depreciation and interest expense in the quarter. We're able to offset much of these impacts with our continued success in controlling our cost. Lower non-tracked O&M cost added $0.02 per share to our third quarter results. On the Natural Gas Distribution side, we lost $0.02 per share in the third quarter of 2017, which was comparable to last year. The Eversource Parent and Other, we earned $0.03 per share in the third quarter, and this compares to earnings of $0.04 per share in 2016. The decline was primarily due to higher interest expense resulting from higher levels of debt and higher interest rates on short-term debt, reflecting the impact of recent Fed interest rate hikes. Turning from the third quarter to the nine-month results, we earned $2.36 per share for the first nine months of 2017, compared with $2.24 per share last year. Improved results were due to higher Transmission earnings, improved results at the Parent, and lower O&M cost. In fact, lower O&M costs added $0.06 per share to our year-to-date results. For the full year, we expect to earn between $3.05 and $3.20 per share. And for the long-term, we continue to project 5% to 7% long-term EPS growth. We are pleased with our results to-date and remain comfortable with our 2017 guidance, although I'd like to see some very cold weather in November and December and that would really help us reach the higher end of our earnings range for 2017. From the financial side, I'd now turn to our regulatory activity on Slide 4 and start with our New Hampshire generation divestiture, which is moving along very well. On October 12, we submitted to the New Hampshire Public Utility Commission two purchase and sales agreements for the sale of our remaining generation assets in New Hampshire for a total purchase price of $258 million. The New Hampshire PUC has opened the docket to review these contracts with approval expected before the end of this year. We continue to expect a closing by the end of the year or very early next year, with securitization activities to follow soon thereafter. The book value currently on PSNH generating assets, including fuel and inventory, totals approximately $770 million as of the end of September. Under the New Hampshire PUC approved settlement, we will recover through securitization our investment in the plants that's not collected through the sale process. After completion of these transactions and implementation of market-based competitive solicitations for power for our New Hampshire customers, we expect overall energy supply rates to decline going forward. Turning to Slide 5 and our current distribution rate case activity. As many of you know, hearings and briefings are now complete on our Massachusetts Electric rate case. This has been a very comprehensive case with our proposed merger of NSTAR Electric and WMECO. The movement of NSTAR Electric on to revenue decoupling, proposals for performance-based ratemaking and expansion of our vegetation management program, some significant rate design changes and our grid modernization proposal, including $145 million for energy storage and electric vehicle support expenditures. We're pleased with how the case went and the case that we presented, and look forward to decision by the end of November with new rates taking effect early next year. In Connecticut, we filed a letter of intent last week stating that later, in November, we'll file a general rate case for CL&P supporting a three-year plan. This case is required by our 2012 merger settlement. The increases we're requesting are being driven largely by higher depreciation, property and other tax expense, much of which relates to the hundreds of millions of dollars we invest annually in Connecticut distribution system that helps achieve top-tier results for customers. This case continues to reflect our ability to move our electric performance higher, while controlling costs for our customers. From a state regulation, I'll turn to Slide 6 and the various New England transmission ROE dockets before FERC. As you may recall, on April 14 of this year, the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals vacated and remanded FERC's 2014 order that lowered the base ROE for the New England Transmission Owners from 11.14% to 10.57%. In early June, the region's transmission owners, including Eversource, filed with the FERC to revert back to the ROE that was approved by the FERC nearly a decade ago which had a base ROE of 11.14%. FERC did not accept our request last month stating that changes to the billed ROEs now would complicate the computation of any surcharges or refunds or changes once a final decision is issued. As a result, we made no changes to our rates and continue to bill and recognize revenues based on a 10.57% base ROE, until we receive a new order from FERC. Next, on Slide 7, our pending transaction involving Aquarion Water Company. This also is moving along very well. Regulators in Connecticut and New Hampshire and all relevant federal agencies have signed off on the transaction. As a result, we'll be able to close the transaction once we receive approval from the Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities. We have completed all the hearings and briefings before the DPU and are awaiting a decision. We expect to close the transaction before year end. On Slide 8, we profile our four largest reliability projects underway in our system. We expect all of these projects to be completed in 2019, and we've made considerable progress to date with 28 of the 55 projects associated with Greater Boston and Greater Hartford, those being already in service. We continue to review our 2018 capital budget. As you know, we'll discuss that in detail in February. But during the last earnings call in July, I noted that we expect to offset some of the revisions to the Northern Pass time line through increased investments in our electric, natural gas and water distribution systems, such that our capital budget would likely remain approximately $2.8 billion. Since then, we've also identified about $100 million of additional reliability-related electric transmission investments across our service territory that we would expect to complete in 2018. This investment will allow us to further improve transmission reliability and harden our system. We're also making significant progress on our Massachusetts solar initiative. As many of you know in August of this year, legislation allowing us to build 62 megawatts of solar was amended to provide an additional two years to complete the facilities. As a result and to lower cost for our customers, we adjusted our construction schedule such that a small amount of capital spending for the solar program will take place in 2018 rather than 2017. Approximately 50 megawatts are now under construction, with the remaining 12 megawatts, we'll go into construction by the end of this year. Moreover, we remain well within our $200 million budget. Finally, turning to financing, in early October, Eversource Parent issued $450 million each in a five-year and seven-year notes with yields of about 2.50% and 2.94%, respectively. The spreads on these debt issuances were amongst the lowest we've seen for parent paper in the industry and we think that speaks volumes to our high credit quality. The generation divestiture, the Aquarion acquisition should continue to solidify the attractive business risk position assigned to us by the credit agencies. Before I turn the call over to Lee, I want to take a moment to discuss the severe wind and rain storm that struck the Northeast Sunday night into Monday morning. The near hurricane force winds resulted in hundreds of broken poles, dozens of downed transformers and many miles of downed wires. Across New England, approximately 1.3 million electric customers lost power. In our service territory, New Hampshire was the hardest hit with more than 60% of all customers out of power at some point. While our restoration efforts are largely complete in Massachusetts and Connecticut, and they are progressing well in New Hampshire, I just want to recognize the tireless efforts of our employees and thank our customers for their patience. We'll see many of you on this call at the EEI Financial Conference next week. So, making this call somewhat briefer than last quarter. But now, I'll turn the call over to Lee.
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Thanks, Phil. I'll provide you with an update on Northern Pass, and then turn the call back to Jeff for Q&As. Slide 9 highlights the progress we are making on Northern Pass, cross-examination of our witnesses wrapped up in the early October timeframe, and the hearings are now focused on intervenor witnesses. Our witnesses made a highly compelling case for the New Hampshire Site Evaluation Committee to approve the project as we have proposed it, with 60 miles of underground cables and 132 miles of overhead lines. They have discussed all the steps we have made to minimize the physical impact of Northern Pass, while at the same time preserving the economic viability of a project that will bring billions of dollars of benefits to the state. We're now nearly halfway through the cross-examination of intervenor witnesses. Once the cross-examination is complete and the record is closed, intervenors will have 14 days to file their final briefs on the project, and we will have another seven days to file ours. Then, the seven members of the New Hampshire SEC Committee that have been assigned to review the Northern Pass project will vote. A simple majority is necessary to approve Northern Pass. The subcommittee has targeted a vote no later than February 28, 2018 but it could take place sooner. After the vote, the New Hampshire SEC staff council will prepare a written decision consistent with the majority position, which the SEC has scheduled for no later than March 31, 2018. We consider the New Hampshire SEC schedule to be supportive of the project receiving all of the approvals necessary to commence construction in the second quarter of 2018. In addition to the SEC permit, we need to secure a Presidential Permit from the U.S. Department of Energy. The DOE issued the Final Environmental Impact Statement on Northern Pass in August. In issuing the Final EIS, DOE stated "The proposed DOE action in the Final EIS is to issue a Presidential Permit to the applicant, Northern Pass LLC, to construct, operate, maintain and connect a new electric transmission line across the U.S.-Canada border in northern New Hampshire." We are now awaiting the Record of Decision and the Presidential Permit from the DOE, and expect both to be issued this year. The project requires two federal permits, two additional ones. And we have made significant progress on both, the U.S. Forest Service issued a Record of Decision two months ago that was supportive of the underground route that we've selected through the White Mountain National Forest. We expect a final order from the Forest Service before the end of this year. We also expect to receive a final permit from the Army Corps of Engineers by the end of the year. On the state side, we achieved another important milestone yesterday, when we filed a settlement agreed on the terms of Northern Pass' lease with Public Service of New Hampshire for most of Northern Pass' 192-mile route. The settlement was reached with New Hampshire PUC staff and the Office of Consumer Advocate, the two principal intervenors in the case. We expect the New Hampshire PUC approval of the settlement by the end of the year. Taken together, we are very pleased with our current position in the siting process with significant progress being made in all venues. Turning to Slide 10, we continue to expect our construction to commence by mid-2018 with completion in the third quarter of 2020. At that time, Northern Pass would be fully constructed and our operational testing would commence, allowing the project to enter service prior to the critical 2020-2021 winter period,. Supporting those time schedule of the firm fixed price contracts we have signed with our major suppliers and contractors, including ABB and Quanta Services. All parties involved in this project are primed and ready to commence work once we receive the final approvals. Finally, before we begin Q&A, I will touch on Bay State Wind and our partner, which has the new corporate name called Ørsted. We are preparing our bid into the Massachusetts offshore wind RFP, which is due December 20. Given the vast experience of Ørsted in European offshore wind and our knowledge of New England markets and transmission, we believe we will be able to submit a highly compelling set of proposals for review by the evaluators. Now, I'll turn the call back to Jeff for Q&A.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thank you, Lee. And I'll return the call to Christine just to remind you how to enter your questions. Christine?
Operator:
Thank you.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Great. Thank you, Christine. Our first question this morning is from Mike Weinstein from Credit Suisse. Good morning, Mike.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Hi, good morning. Hi, Lee, would you mind talking a little bit about the SEC settlement – or not the SEC, but the New Hampshire Public Utility Commission settlement that you just arrived at. How significant is that for the project and how many miles of the line is covered by those Rights of Way? And also, at the SEC, what's your impression, I guess, now that the cross-examination of intervenor witnesses has started, what's your impression of their ability to delay the process in some way or get the vote done on time in February?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Yes. Hi, Mike, this is Lee. In regards to the Right of Way or essentially is all of the Right of Way with the exception of the underground and the Northern part which is a private lease on about 22 miles of land. So if you add the underground and then private lease, that's about 82 miles. So the rest of it is what remains of 193 miles. So it's very, very significant because obviously earlier the PUC approved Northern Pass as utility, and part of what they had to do to do that is to say that Northern Pass would be in the public good to become the utility in the state. So this now giving us the rights to use the Right of Way where there is other existing PSNH or Eversource New Hampshire Rights of Way is very, very important, is one of the last major steps. It obviously, by the conclusion of that, again it lends the credence to the project itself because that will be approved by many of the same members that sit on the SEC. So we feel very good about that. I would just say in regards to the SEC hearing, those meetings have proceeded very well. I think the SEC has been very judicious in terms of allowing opposing cross-examination and ensuring that the cross-examination is timely, it's constructive and is not meant to be essentially kind of jarring on or keeping the process going. So I think, the SEC is determined and focused to bring this thing to a conclusion no later than earlier this year. And the schedule as we have right now would support all of the hearings being completed by the end of this year, early deliberations in first quarter, January timeframe, and then an oral vote and then a subsequent written decision.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Great. And in terms of the RFP outcome that's happening in January for the Massachusetts Clean Energy RFP, how significant is that for Hydro-Québec's support, in your opinion, at this point?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Excuse me. Mike, could you repeat that last part?
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
How significant is the outcome of the Massachusetts Clean Energy RFP for Hydro-Québec's support of the Northern Pass project?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
We talk with Northern Pass on a regular basis. You know, their goal is to double the revenue and double their earnings over the course of the next 15 years and is to further increase imports into the U.S. predominantly, New England, which is their best market. They would like to, if possible, put three Northern Passes into New England. So they are very, very committed to this project. And if you look at this project, we're pretty much through the federal siting, we should have the Presidential permit by the end of this year or sooner. The SEC process is moving along quite nicely. We have all the contracts laid out. We have an in-service date of by the end of 2020, that's at least two to three years before anybody else. And just looking up the Massachusetts RFP, provided in the RFP is additional credit if you will for projects that will end by the end of 2020, when the state has their mandate to reduce carbon by 20%. And if you look at Northern Pass, it will take 25% of the carbon out of the electric sector inside of Massachusetts. And then, you have the siting on the Canadian side. We will have the siting on the Canadian side about the end of this year. The other projects that would cross into Canada will take another two to three years of siting in Canada. So no other project that exists as far along as we are and has the certainty that we have around fixed price contracts with contractors and in-service dates that really meet the needs and goals of the Massachusetts clean air plan.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Okay. Thanks a lot, Lee.
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Thanks, Mike.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thanks, Mike. Next question is from Praful Mehta from Citi. Good morning, Praful.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Hi, Jeff. Thanks guys. So just following up a little bit on Northern Pass, in terms of the SEC approvals, I guess the timeline is moving well, but just wanted to understand what are the risks here? I mean is there any possibility of delay further or what if the decision doesn't go your way? In that case, what are the options you have at that point?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Yes. I would just say is there – the answer to the first part of your question, is there opportunity to delay further, I would say no. We have a very strong Governor in New Hampshire that supports this project. The legislature supports this project including the senior members of the legislature. The SEC Chairman has been very efficient and very judicious in the process, so we don't see any delays there. A number of the interveners had tried, previous litigation, it suits all of which have failed. We think from a long experience with the SEC process that it's quite frankly long, it's very judicious, it's very comprehensive. But when it's complete, it has always withstood legal challenge and we believe so will the Presidential permit. So we do not see delays there. So I am very confident that we will get our decision, it will be in time for the three-state RFP and we will be successful inside of that RFP.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Got you, all right. And you've talked about from a growth perspective right, the 5% to 7% you've had – the 5% to 7% growth platform through 2020. But you've also talked about like the $100 million of incremental transmission CapEx today. Is that helping your move to the upper end of that range? Is that just keeping it at the midpoint? And also wanted to understand what were the approvals required for that incremental transmission spend?
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
So the short answer to that is that's a total amount that helps to fill the gap that we had talked about earlier when Northern Pass changed its schedule, so that Northern Pass capital spending was moving out of $18 million and into $19 million and $20 million. So that's just one more element of the package that we've discussed that will support the capital spending plan in 2018 as Northern Pass moves over. So I'd say it just replaces that, it doesn't sort of enhance the number at this stage.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Got you, thanks. And then finally in terms of Aquarion growth opportunities, what is that growth profile within your 5% to 7%, is that a higher growth profile versus the rest of the business, or is it similar?
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
It's similar, but a little bit on the higher end of that – of that range, so it does enhance the number.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Got you. Thanks, guys.
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
All right, thank you.
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Thanks, Praful.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Next question is from Travis Miller from Morningstar. Good morning, Travis.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Good morning. Thank you. Just a quick one here that $0.04 down on the retail electric revenues, how much or is all of that due to weather and if not what else is going on in that number?
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
No, that's pretty much due to weather. I mean if you looked at sort of normalized, it's down slightly, so I guess there's a little bit more going on there relating to energy efficiency, et cetera. But it's – as I said, we had 34% fewer cooling degree days in Boston. You know, that's – you know that versus the previous year, the previous year was pretty warm. So even versus normal, they were down 8%. So it was just a bad weather quarter and it really was the driver of that number.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Okay. That's all for now. I appreciate it.
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Thank you.
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
All right.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thanks Travis. Next question is from Jerimiah Booream from Bank of America. Welcome back.
Jerimiah Booream - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Thank you, Jeff and hi everyone. Good morning.
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Good morning.
Jerimiah Booream - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
I just wanted to touch on the FERC decisions coming your way, do you have any idea of the timing for when you could see a revision to Opinion 531? And also, given that the NETOs have requested basically for all the complaints to be vacated. Is there a chance that that could come at the same time and do you have any insight into kind of the process at the FERC, does it seem like they're triaging some of the issues here?
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Well, I think your last statement there is probably a good portrayal is that there probably is still some triaging going on above the highest priority items. And even though the FERC currently has a quorum, it's not filled out with all the commissioners. So, I think that predicting the timing of when we'd get a decision is probably not a good item for any of us to be doing. But I wouldn't expect that we would see something until 2018, if I had to guess so. So, we've long looked for all of these to be handled together, and in fact a couple of the complaints were combined complaints 2 and 3, but then a complaint 4 came up. So we think that it really doesn't do anybody any good to keep pancaking these types of complaints over and over again for an investment that's 40-year, 50-year, 60-year investment. It does provide some uncertainty there. So that's the approach we'd like to take and that's why we filed it. But in terms of predicting when it will be decided, probably not in the very near-term, would be my guess.
Jerimiah Booream - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Okay. Yes, that's fair. And then just housekeeping question, is there any reason to think that you guys would have other rate cases coming up in any of your other jurisdictions that we haven't talked about already?
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Well, the only ones that we've announced are the ones that I talked about today in terms of Massachusetts, and we filed a letter of intent in Connecticut. So we're always evaluating that. Some of the – as you can imagine, some of the rate cases are driven by what the returns are in those jurisdictions, some are triggered by regulatory agreements that we have, things like that. So the only ones that are on the table are the Massachusetts and the Connecticut electric ones.
Jerimiah Booream - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Okay. Thanks very much.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thanks, Jerimiah. Next question is from Caroline Bone from Deutsche Bank. Good morning, Caroline.
Caroline V. Bone - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Hey, good morning, guys. So this is a follow-up on Northern Pass. So it does seem like you guys are pretty well positioned for the Massachusetts RFP. But are there any other RFPs in the pipe in the region, in which Northern Pass could participate in, if Massachusetts doesn't go your way?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Well. If you look at the region, Caroline, there is a number of states. I mean you've got Massachusetts, I mean Connecticut has 1,000 megawatts approximately of authorization, much of which could be hydro. They haven't gone out for an RFP for that. Rhode Island has essentially an authorization of about 1,000 megawatts as well for clean energy. The Governor has a mandate to have that in service by 2020, which could probably be difficult, but at least there is an authorization there. They have just not initiated the RFPs on those yet. So there are other authorizations and they're really awaiting RFPs, I think that's one of the reasons why, quite frankly, when we talk to the folks from Hydro-Québec, they really feel that they could do three Northern Passes. They could do at least two more of them into the region. And, of course, as the region moves forward and ISO New England will issue its fuel security report, that's a little bit held up because of the FERC NOPR around coal and nuclear. But when they issue that, I think that will lead to say that the region has to have more firm fuel, not only potentially gas, but hydro as well as the older plants, including nuclear retire over time.
Caroline V. Bone - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. And so, I mean, do you know what's holding up Connecticut and Rhode Island, given I guess if Rhode Island has this target by 2020, why haven't they launched something?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
I just think, in the case of Connecticut, they are shall we say they're busy with other issues.
Caroline V. Bone - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Yes, I get Connecticut.
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
They're busy with other issues. Hopefully, get through those other issues, and they'll have a budget and they'll be able to move on. As you know, they also have a offshore wind authorization of 200 megawatts. We've talked to folks there. They say offshore wind is really a bright future for the state, not only because again it's close to load, but they have seaports there that could be very constructive, particularly New London, in servicing an offshore wind businesses. They have essentially almost 800 megawatts of open access on the transmission system that interconnects from the Millstone facility into the 345 kV system into the region. That's really because Unit 1 was shut down. So they see a lot of opportunities. They're working through those opportunities. In regards to Rhode Island, I really can't speak for where they are. I really can't speak to that.
Caroline V. Bone - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay, okay. And then, just maybe one last one and this one is for Phil. And I know you guys are going to provide guidance on the Q4 call, but I'm just wondering if you can at least talk to some preliminary drivers that we should be thinking about, particularly around the rate cases, Aquarion, all of these kind of moving pieces?
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Well, without giving guidance that we're not going to give till February, that is a little difficult, Caroline. I mean, but I think that certainly the levers that we've talked about in the past with you and others in terms of our transmission growth and our ability to keep costs under control and a manageable level of rate expectations, I think those are – certainly a key assumption will be what kind of – the issue we talked about earlier, the FERC ROEs, how those get settled and what the rates on that are going forward. So I think that we've spent a lot of time over the last couple years talking about the weather impact on our sales and whatnot, but the outcome of the Massachusetts rate case will remove a great part of that. I mean, we'll have most of our jurisdictions with electric and gas mostly de-coupled after this. So that I think removes a bit of sort of the variation and the risk on the sales side. So that might be a little bit easier prediction. So I mean, I think the drivers would be consistent. I think we still have a good pipeline of projects that we'll probably be able to discuss. And the key assumption I think would be maybe what comes out of the FERC ROE.
Caroline V. Bone - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. And did you guys just say – one last follow-up on that, did you say what the weather versus normal impact has been year-to-date? Apologize if I missed that.
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Well, we talked about it for the – I mean, for the quarter. So for the quarter, this past quarter is more about cooling. So we did talk about the quarter being down about 34% in terms of cooling, and it's off 7%, 8% in terms of normal. If you get into the rest of the year, then you've got to talk about heating and cooling. But about $0.03 would be the weather impact. If you added everything up for the year, weather has hurt us by about $0.03.
Caroline V. Bone - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. Okay, that's helpful. Thanks so much.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thanks, Caroline. Next question is from Paul Patterson from Glenrock. Good morning, Paul.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Good morning. So just to follow up on Northern Pass finally, I would agree that it's been a very lengthy process, certainly a lot of due process. What I was a little interested in was apparently there were some comments by the Vice Chair regarding, I guess, the differing economic analysis and sort of hinging on the capacity market scenarios. And I was just wondering when we might get some clarity? I think that happened on Friday, when we might, I guess from what I read, my understanding is that that will be resolved hopefully shortly. Do we have any – will there be a document filed or anything that sort of goes over that issue?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Paul, this is Lee. No, we're working with our partner HQ on that, and HQ has already made a statement that they have extensive experience in the forward capacity markers. They have ongoing conversations with ISO New England and the Market Monitor. They are confident they will be able to receive capacity credit. The line is designed and built without any additional upgrades. 400% deliverability could get over 800 megawatts, would be entitled to over 800 megawatts of capacity. And so, I think really the plan here is to take that and reinforce that statement. And then early next year, we would -HQ would notify ISO of their intent to enter into capacity markets.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay, awesome. That's great to hear. And then on the sales growth, just to follow-up on Travis' question, what was the sales normalized – the normalized sales growth year-to-date on electric?
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Just about 1% down.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. And then finally on the transmission, we haven't seen any big – any of these big cases fully litigated, but we have seen some settlements. I'm sure you guys are aware of them on transmission ROE, base ROE and the adder. How should we think about those or how do you guys think about – how should we think about those in the context of what – with respect to what might happen with the transmission rate case for New England?
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Well, I think that, just part of the general FERC process, Paul, is there is settlement discussions you know always as a first step and as an effort to reach agreement. So obviously we've gone through those steps in these processes and hadn't been able to do that. So we're -- our track record is if something is reasonable and we think it's in everybody's best interest, settlements are certainly something we're open to, but they have to be a reasonable outcome. And as I said, they're generally part – they're part of the general process in the FERC proceedings, and so we engage with others on an ongoing basis there.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. But the ones that we've seen so far, you don't think that they're applicable at all or out, I mean, in terms of just us, from us looking afar here in terms of we haven't seen decisions, but we have seen a number of different settlements across the country on sort of base ROE and I'm just wondering, how should we think about that in the context of New England, or is there anything that we should think about being different there because of geography or something or...
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
No, I wouldn't expect that at this stage, we'd reach any settlement. And as I said, we've gone through various processes in the past and we are where we are right now. So unless there is more cases or something like that, which I'm hopeful that that won't happen, but in the cases that exist now, they're pretty far along. The fourth case is the least far along I guess of the cases, so I guess that there could be some opportunities there. But it's hard, once – when you have an open case from many years ago, how do you settle something that's later until you get the one that's earlier. So I think we have to see what comes out of this complaint one and hopefully that will set the trend for the rest of the cases.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. I appreciate it. Thanks a lot, guys.
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Thanks.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thanks, Paul. So we don't have any more questions for this morning. We want to thank you for joining us. We look forward to seeing most of you who are on the call at the EEI Financial Conference starting Sunday. Take care and safe travel.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy
Analysts:
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC Caroline V. Bone - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research)
Operator:
Welcome to the Eversource Energy Second Quarter Earnings Call. My name is Sylvia, and I will be your operator for today's call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Jeffrey Kotkin. Mr. Kotkin, you may begin.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thank you, Sylvia. Good morning and thank you for joining us. I'm Jeff Kotkin, Eversource Energy's Vice President for Investor Relations. As you can see on slide 1 of the slides that we posted last night, some of the statements made during this investor call maybe forward-looking as defined within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risk and uncertainty, which may cause the actual results to differ materially from forecasts and projections. Some of these factors are set forth in the news release issued yesterday. Additional information about the various factors that may cause actual results to differ can be found in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2016, and the 10-Q for the three months ended March, 31, 2017. Additionally, our explanation of how and why we use certain non-GAAP measures is contained within our news release and the slides we posted under Presentations & Webcasts, and in our most recent 10-K. Turning to slide 2, speaking today will be Phil Lembo, our Executive Vice President and CFO; and Lee Olivier, our Executive Vice President for Enterprise Energy Strategy and Business Development. Also, joining us today are Jay Buth, our Vice President and Controller; John Moreira, our Vice President of Financial Planning and Analysis; and Christine Vaughan, our Treasurer and Vice President for Regulatory. Now, I will turn to slide 3 and turn over the call to Phil.
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Thank you, Jeff. So today I'll cover second quarter and first half financial results, the status of key regulatory dockets, the status of our Aquarion Water Company transaction, and an update on our capital plan and several transmission projects. So, let's start with the financial results for the quarter in slide 3. Earnings were up $0.08 per share in the second quarter of 2017 compared with the second quarter of 2016. We earned $0.72 per share in the second quarter, compared with $0.64 per share in the second quarter of 2016. On the electric distribution and generation side, we earned $0.38 per share in the second quarter of 2017, and that compares to $0.32 in the second quarter of last year. This increase was primarily due to lower operations and maintenance costs. We also benefited from higher demand revenues due to warm weather, warmer weather than the last – than the prior year. Our transmission segment earned $0.30 per share in the second quarter of 2017 and this compares to $0.29 per share in the second quarter of last year. The primary driver of this earnings growth was higher transmission rate base, as we continue to invest in transmission projects that enhance the reliability of the New England power grid. I'll provide an update on key transmission projects that are driving this in a moment. The benefits from the greater transmission investment were partially offset by our annual reconciliation of costs and revenues from the prior year in accordance with FERC tariffs. This reconciliation takes place annually in the second quarter. On the natural gas distribution side, we earned $0.01 per share in the second quarter of 2017. This compares to earnings of $0.03 per share in the second quarter of the previous year. Lower earnings were due to several factors, milder early spring weather, high depreciation and higher O&M costs. At the Eversource parent and other, we earned $0.03 per share and this compared to a relatively flat results in the second quarter of 2016. The primary driver was related to earnings from a long-held investment in a fund that invests in renewable energy projects. In total, through 2016, the earnings from this investment were pretty much breakeven. However, the market for renewable projects has matured and performed well over the past year, resulting in higher equity earnings in the second quarter from this investment of about $0.02 per share, and this compared to a small loss of about a penny per share in the second quarter of last year. So going forward, we don't expect ongoing earnings from this investment will have a material impact on the earnings. Turning to the second – turning from the second quarter to the first half results, we earned $1.54 per share in the first six months of 2017, compared to a $1.41 per share in the first half of last year. Improved results were due to higher transmission earnings, higher distribution revenues, lower O&M and improved results of the parent. For the full year, we continue to expect to earn between $3.05 and $3.20 per share, and for the long-term, we continue to project 5% to 7% EPS growth. From operations, I'll turn it to our regulatory activity and start in Massachusetts with the Massachusetts rate case and this is on slide 4. Hearings have concluded on the rate case, except for rate design topics. We expect a decision on the financial aspects of the case by the end of November, with the rate design decision around year end. New rates would be effective in January of 2018, and to date we've no surprises in the rate review process. In New Hampshire, binding bids on our public service in New Hampshire generation fleet are due next month. And there too, the overall divestiture process is moving along well, and we expect regulatory approval of the sale by the end of the year, with securitization activities to follow soon after the closing. From our state regulation, I'll turn to slide 5, and the various New England transmission ROE dockets before FERC. As you may recall, on April 14th of this year, this DC Circuit Court of Appeals vacated FERC's 2014 order that lowered the base ROE for the New England transmission owners from 11.14% to 10.57%. Now before FERC commissions is not only the vacated order from that compliant one, but the ALJ recommendations from complaints two and three, which have not yet been decided. So, it's unclear whether FERC will issue orders on all three complainants at the same time or what the timing is of when this will occur. We've been conferring with other New England transmission owners about the appropriate billing for transmission service in New England in light of this April court decision and the four pending complaints. And in June, the regions transmission owners, including Eversource filed with the FERC to revert back to the last approved ROE that was approved at 11.14%. In the filing, the transmission owners proposed that the rate be effective on June 8, and billing on the new rate to customers would not start until 60 days after FERC has a quorum. And as we all know, that has not occurred at this time. The financial results we reported last night still reflect the 10.57% ROE and the 11.74% cap on incentives that was vacated by the court. Our transmission revenues are based on what we bill to customers. Therefore there will be no change in our transmission revenues until our rates are changed perspectively. As a remainder, every 10 basis points of change in transmission ROEs, results in about a $3 million after tax earnings annually. Next I'll turn to Slide 6 and the exciting announcement we made last month. On June 2, we announced an agreement to acquire Aquarion water company from Macquarie Infrastructure Partners and others for approximately $880 million in cash and assumption of $795 million of Aquarion debt. Aquarion is a very well managed water company with operations in the three states we already serve, Connecticut, Massachusetts and New Hampshire, with 90% of the operations being Connecticut. Several weeks ago, we filed regulatory applications in each of the states, seeking permission to consummate the transaction, and we expect to close the deal by the end of this year. Connecticut as I said where 90% of the business is located has already established a schedule with a final decision due before the end of October of this year. This transaction fits very nicely with our strategy to invest in critical infrastructure and to develop clean energy solutions for customers. Macquarie had owned Aquarion for decade and its decision to sell the business coincides with our divestiture of PSNH's generation fleet. So in addition to being an excellent strategic fit, the timing of the opportunity was also good. We are exiting a generation business that was shrinking because of State statues that precluded us from any expansion, and we're entering a water distribution business that we expect will see decades of growth ahead due to the need for replacement of ageing infrastructure. We expect Aquarion to help, support and extend our projected 5% to 7% EPS growth. We will not be issuing any equity in association with this transaction, the cash portion of the transaction will come largely from the net proceeds from the sale and securitization of our New Hampshire generating assets. And as a reminder, nearly $800 million of gross proceeds are expected as part of that transaction. We anticipate that Aquarion will operate pretty much as it does now post-closing. As you know, we are not currently in the water business. We also expect Aquarion's earnings to substantially offset the loss of PSNH generation earnings, and we expect Aquarion's earnings to grow over time as we invest needed capital in the business. Connecticut has a constructive regulatory structure for water companies that includes revenue decoupling, an infrastructure investment tracking mechanism and the ability to include a rate base acquisition costs related to the purchase of small financially distressed water companies. There is much fragmentation in the water business today, and over the last several years, Aquarion has acquired over a dozen smaller water systems. And I expect this trend would continue. We are very excited about the additional business diversity and long-term growth opportunities the water business will provide. We're also very pleased that Aquarion will be located locally and owned locally. Before I turn the call over to Lee for the status report on some of our major projects, I want to provide you with our customary media update on capital expenditure plans. So our capital expenditures totaled about $1 billion in the first half of 2017, up about $100 million from the first half of 2016. Transmission investments totaled approximately $375 million in the first half of 2017 and we continue to target nearly $1 billion in transmission investments for the year. As you can see on Slide seven, we continue to make progress on a number of the major transmission reliability projects. I wanted to spend some time discussing Northern Pass spending. Northern Pass accounts for $21 million of our transmission capital invested this year, and we expect that number to rise considerably beginning next year. Lee will provide you with an update of the project in a moment, but as you can see in the slides and from the press release relating to our Massachusetts RFP we issued yesterday, we're now anticipating a second half of 2020 as the in-service date for the project. We expect that the vast majority of the work on Northern Pass will be completed in 2018 and 2019, but we do expect a few hundred million dollars of the project will move into 2020. We are currently developing detailed operating plans for 2018 and beyond, and we fully expect to provide an overall capital spending plan for 2018 that is consistent with the plan we released earlier this year. We expect to offset the lower level of expenditures in Northern Pass in 2018 with increased investments in electric resiliency programs, natural gas infrastructure capital and natural gas expansion projects. We also expect, depending on the exact closing of the timing of the Aquarion transaction, nearly $100 million of capital expenditures at the water business. We'll provide you with specific capital expenditure levels for 2018 through 2021 for all segments when we update our long-term forecast in February. We expect these investments to fully support our projected 5% to 7% long-term EPS growth rate. With that, I'll turn the call over to Lee.
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Okay. Thanks, Phil. I'll provide you with a brief update on our major investment initiatives and then turn the call back to Jeff for Q&A. Let's start with Northern Pass on Slide eight. The New Hampshire Site Evaluation Committee has completed more than 20 days of final evidentiary hearings for the project. Remaining hearings are scheduled to run through September and we've been quite pleased with how they have proceeded so far. We consider the New Hampshire SEC schedule to be supportive of the project receiving all of its approvals necessary to commence construction in early 2018. Hearings in June and July focus on construction of line, its impact on the regions power prices, and the considerable effort we are devoting to minimize environmental impact of the project. We believe our witnesses have made a very persuasive case as to why the project should be approved as proposed. It will bring billions of dollars of benefits to the state of New Hampshire, including an estimated $60 million a year in electric market savings, $30 million to $35 million a year in property tax revenues, $200 million over a 20-year period is probably (15:28) New Hampshire economic development and clean energy fund, and up to 2,600 jobs during the construction period. We have pledged to give priority to New Hampshire residents and businesses for construction work. In addition to the SEC permit, we need to secure a presidential permit from the U.S. Department of Energy. According to its website, the DOE expects to issue a final environmental impact statement in August. That will position the DOE to issue a presidential permit by the end of this year. We continue to expect Hydro-Québec to receive its final national and provincial permits for the Canadian portion of the project later this year. The New Hampshire PUC already has reviewed a number of items related to Northern Pass. Last year it authorized Northern Pass transmission to operate as a utility in the state of New Hampshire. In June, the New Hampshire PUC approved NPT's licenses to cross public waters and lands. Additionally, both the New Hampshire Department of Transportation and the State Department of Environmental Services have approved the necessary permits to construct Northern Pass subject to final approval by the New Hampshire SEC. Receiving the New Hampshire SEC and presidential permits by year end would support commencing construction in early 2018. You may recall that during our first quarter earnings call we noted that we expected to firm up our construction schedule around this time, after concluding a comprehensive review of the project with our important vendors and contractors. We have now completed that review with a particular focus on the timing and cost of the converter station and the 60 miles of underground cable. We also wanted to get through certain key elements of our New Hampshire SEC testimony, particularly the seven days of hearings on construction, which ended in June. Based on our firm contracts, we expect that if we receive final permits for the project by the end of this year, we can complete the project in the third quarter of 2020. At that time, Northern Pass would be fully constructed and operational testing would commence, allowing the project to enter service prior to the critical 2020 to 2021 winter period. We believe the schedule would put us significantly ahead of any other major project to import Canadian hydro into New England. Our confidence in the construction schedule is also supported by the firm contracts we have with two of the most preeminent firms in the world, in terms of electric transmission design and construction, ABB and Quanta Services. Turning to Slide 9, yesterday Eversource Energy transmission ventures and Hydro-Québec jointly bid Northern Pass into the Massachusetts clean energy RFP. We believe that this bid would be extremely competitive in the Massachusetts solicitation due to the advanced stage of our project development. To remind you, by 2022 Massachusetts is required to contract for 9.45 terawatt hours a year of clean energy. Page 1 of the RFP states that of the total 9.45 terawatt hours of cost-effective clean energy contracts being sought in this RFP, the distribution companies encourage proposals, which include clean energy generation able to commit to begin deliveries prior to the end of 2020, to maximize the commonwealth's ability to meet its global warming solutions act goals. We believe that these provisions support our joint bid, since we are so much further along the project development process than other bidders. Additionally, Northern Pass would reduce Massachusetts electric sector carbon emissions by 25%, and as a result get Massachusetts pathway to its mandated reduction for the sector by 2050. The current Massachusetts RFP is scheduled in the case that projects will be selected for negotiations by January 25, with regulatory filings next spring. Separately, an RFP exclusively for offshore wind was issued to the market at the end of June with bids due December 20, and expected contract filings with the DPU by the end July 2018. The RFP calls for interested bidders to submit a conforming proposal for 400 megawatts. It also stated alternative bids of up to 800 megawatts will be considered if bidders can show that a larger project would provide significant net economic benefits to customers. Bidders can also submit an alternative bid for as little as 200 megawatts. Bay State Wind, a 50-50 partnership between Eversource and DONG Energy will bid into this RFP. Bay State Wind's 300 square mile track off the Massachusetts coast is very attractive location and it's expected to be able to host wind turbines capable of producing at least 2,000 megawatts. In addition to Massachusetts the track could serve three other states that are expanding their solicitations for Clean Energy. In New York, Governor Cuomo announced a goal of procuring 2,400 megawatts of offshore wind with the first RFP expected early next year. Rhode Island Governor, Gina Raimondo has announced a goal of procuring 1,000 megawatts of Clean Energy by 2020. In Connecticut, Governor Malloy signed Public Act 17-144 last month allowing offshore wind to be considered as private by new RFP for Clean Energy resources, which will also include utility rate base fuel cells. So it's going to enable construction of approximately 200 megawatts of offshore wind. The timing of any solicitation will be at the discretion of the State Department of Energy and Environmental Protection, but shows yet another legislative effort by a New England state to bring more Clean Energy resources into the region. Additionally, earlier this week, the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection published a draft of the states updated Comprehensive Energy Strategy. The strategy focuses on five major themes. They are decreasing carbon emissions, increasing the supply of renewable energy, including expanding the states class I renewable requirements to 30% by 2030, and prioritizing low-cost grid-scale renewable energy investments. Expanding energy efficiency initiatives including procurement of energy efficiency as a resource. Supporting grid modernization and accelerating electrification of the state's transportation sector. We believe Eversource Energy is uniquely positioned to support each of these state policy initiatives. With Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and New York all driving policies that favor efficient offshore wind development, we expect significant interest in Bay State Wind's potential over the coming years, and we have begun to make early progress on citing. About a month ago, the federal Bureau of Ocean Energy Management issued to Bay State Wind, the first approval of an offshore wind site assessment plan in the United States. This will allow us to take critical measurements of wind and wave speeds over the next two years to prepare for project development. Finally, turning to Access Northeast, we continue to discuss the gravity of New England winter time energy supply situation with policymakers in Massachusetts and New Hampshire. The two states that do not have legislation clarifying Electric Utility's ability to sign natural gas supply contracts. Brayton Point, the region's largest coal and oil-fired generation plant shutdown permanently June 1 and the Pilgrim nuclear plant will shut down in less than two years. ISO-New England continues to express deep concern over the region's ability to meet both gas heating and electrical requirements during winter periods. Later this year, ISO was due to issue a report on the challenges New England will face in future winters, if no significant firm fuel capacity is available for the region. While we are confident in Access Northeast remains the region's best option for adding needed natural gas pipeline capacity, we also note that the project's ultimate size and configuration will depend on what kind of solution our states want to pursue to ensure electric grid reliability and to integrate renewable power sources into the New England grid. Because of that lingering regulatory uncertainty, we and our Access Northeast joint developers, Enbridge, National Grid withdrew pre-applications from FERC last month, FERC has a very busy calendar, particularly for signing of natural gas pipelines and we thought it best to withdraw our project from preliminary review until we were able to bring more certainty to the question of who will be the counterparties that will purchase long-term pipeline capacity from Access Northeast. We expect most of the work that we've already done on the project can be used in a future re-filed Access Northeast application. We have no question that the regions winter time gas supply situation continues to worsen with generation such as Brayton Point retiring and more natural gas-fired plants being built, and the regions homes and businesses continuing to install tens of thousands of new natural gas systems annually. However, we need state energy policy to be more consistent across the region, particularly in Massachusetts and New Hampshire. We expect to re-file a preliminary application with FERC for Access Northeast, once we have a clear path to resolving current inconsistencies and policies. Now, I will turn the call back to Jeff for Q&A.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thank you, Lee. And I'm going to turn the call back to Sylvia just to remind you how to enter the questions. Sylvia?
Operator:
Thank you. We'll now begin the question-and-answer session. Now, I'll turn the call back to Jeff.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thank you. First question this morning is from Mike Weinstein from Credit Suisse. Good morning, Mike?
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Good morning. Thanks, Lee for that great update. Maybe, we could just talk a little about why – like why is it a full year delay for Northern Pass, how come not the spring of 2020? What equipment exactly is proving to be critical path items that extend the schedule at this point? And then also separately, how critical is wining the RFPs to keeping the project on track? My understanding is that they are – it's not critical. What happens if you lose? I understand there is other opportunities in these other states will be coming next year, but how critical is it to keeping the project on track?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Sure. Just to get to the first part of your question, Mike. It's the HVDC converter technologies is the critical path along with the underground, what they call XLPE cables. So these cables that have no oil and those two components are the critical path. And both HVDC converters and that particular kind of cable is in strong demand around the world. There is long lead times for both of those. Each HVDC converter, there is nothing on the shelf so to speak that you can use and you back fit for a particular application. Every design is a completely unique design and it's just the time that we have gotten from the manufacturer ABB of the cable and HVDC converters, and it's really the limiting factor there. So it's just where – how much they have in the queue, and where we show up in the queue. It's really no more complicated than that. In regards to the project, whether we win the RFP or not, we are committed to build the project in H2. As I have stated there is a lot of opportunities in all of these states for clean energy. If you look at where the region is and the precarious position of the region, absent a dedicated firm fuel supply, particularly natural gas, you are going to need more firm energy like Hydro-Québec has to offer into the marketplace. You probably, I'm sure, have seen where the largest nuclear operator in the region is now inquiring through ISO, what it would take to retire those assets, what that process looks like. They haven't made a commitment to go do that. But I think in any case whether that's done now or later, all of those assets time out and if the region wants to meet its goals around carbon reduction in class 1 renewable energy, as well as clean energy, you will have more hydro coming in from Eastern Canada and Québec to help satisfy that. So we're confident that the project will get built regardless of the outcome with this RFP.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Okay. And in terms of the FERC transmission complaints, are you in – is this planned to re-file to revert back to the old ROE? has that been discussed with other interveners in the case? What's your sense right now of how that's going to proceed going forward? Is there going to be a settlement process that ultimately resolves where the ROEs eventually land?
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Sure, Mike. This is Phil. The filing was done by consultation with the New England transmission owners, because we needed to have a way that we could bill customers, and given that the decision of the DC court vacated complaint one, we needed to have a rate on file that we could start billing our customers with. So this was a consultation and a filing with the New England transmission owners that was made in early June and as you know, there's really not a forum or court at FERC at this time to review that. So we have not changed our billing until we move through that process. In terms of settlement, we've tried – we have – in each of these complaints there has been settlement process and that's – the traditional FERC process is to start that we have not in any of those cases reached any settlements. So I guess, one could always be reached in the future, but I guess at this stage we are awaiting a quorum, so that the case be reviewed and we can move forward.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
And one last question, on Aquarion. How far in the process are you right now looking at further acquisitions of distressed assets that are out there? Anyway, is this something that we expect – should expect to hear within fairly soon after closing the deal, like early next year?
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Yes. I can say Aquarion is a private – they're a privately held company right now, but if you look at their track record over the last many years, there's about a dozen different smaller financially distressed systems that have been let's call it tucked in under the Aquarion umbrella. So that's about a 11,000 additional customers. There's 230,000 customers now. Certainly, there is more of these types of systems out there, as you get ageing infrastructure, more requirements for clean water, that type of thing. So just given that kind of track record, I would expect that to continue.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
So, I mean if I just do the quick math, 11,000 customers on 230,000 customers now, it's about 5% increase in size. Is that the sort of the opportunity on a dollar basis that you might be looking at as well?
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
No, it's very fragmented. There's – some of these systems maybe five or six customers, some could be a 1,000 or 2,000. So it's hard to say. Certainly, you have to match up the need with the opportunity. So 11,000 over a last kind of five years is just an indicative number as to the process that's out there. And then I think if you look around the country, you'll see that this type of activity goes on.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Yes. All right. Thanks a lot.
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Thanks Mike.
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
You're welcome.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thanks, Mike. Next question is from Paul Patterson from Glenrock. Good morning. Paul.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Good morning. How are you?
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
All right. How are you?
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
All right. So, just as a follow-up on Northern Pass, is it safe to say that you guys are going to be participating in the upcoming capacity auction? Is Northern Pass going to be participating in it?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Paul, the is Lee. The capacity auctions, the participation in that will be determined by HQ, and they are in the process of evaluating that option right now and I can't tell you what their conclusion is.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Well, let me ask you this, if you don't clear it, how is capacity going to be provided with respect to the Massachusetts RFP?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Well, the RFP is not hinged on capacity. It's really all hinged up on the things like price suppression, carbon reduction, obviously, the cost of the project. Those are the things that it hinges on. So if it gets capacity as well, that's an added benefit to customers in Massachusetts and into the region.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Right. So, you would think that will be part of the value that the project would provide. So it'd seem kind of strange to me, I am sorry slow on this why capacity wouldn't be something that you guys would want to have, value being reflected in terms of the project.
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Thanks Yes. It clearly would be Paul. I just can't tell you exactly right now, where HQ is on that, but it clearly would be part of the value proposition for the state and the region.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay With respect to the determination on MOPR, when would we find out how, ISO New England officially will be treating Northern Pass and the issue of MOPR?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Thanks Well, one of the things that HQ has to do is to actually submit a formal request to ISO New England, to have them evaluate Northern Pass vis-à-vis the MOPR requirements. And they have not done that at this point.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. And then, you mentioned that if the Massachusetts RFP doesn't happen, you feel there is enough opportunity out there, which makes sense for the value of the project. But I'm just wondering, do you think the project would proceed in the absence of some sort of contractual setup such as the Massachusetts RFP or some other state sort of sponsor program or that there is enough confidence that you should simply proceed with the project and hope to get something regardless, if you follow me?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
No, I follow you, Paul. I think where we are right now is, we think our project has all the attributes that it will be the winning project in this RFP. And if for some reason, we don't win this RFP, we'll take a pause, we'll take a look, and we'll look at where the other states are in these RFPs, and that process and we'll make that decision at that time.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. Fair enough. And then just finally the sales growth whether adjusted year-to-date, I'm sorry if I missed it, just really busy, but I didn't see anything on that. Could you tell us where for just system wide, you guys are in terms of retail electric sales growth year-to-date, weather adjusted?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Yes, the normalized, Paul, is down, just less than a percent on a normalized basis year-to-date.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. Thanks so much.
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
You're welcome.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thanks Paul. Next question is from Michael Lapides from Goldman. Good morning, Michael.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Hey, good morning guys. Real quick, just trying to think about the offshore wind process, can you talk about what's – like let's talk about the timeline both, not just for the RFP responses, but then the DOE approvals for the tracks out in the ocean and then kind of the other siting and permitting for where the line would potentially terminate in the U.S. onshore. Like, how do you think about cradle to grave, what the timeline is from the RFP process to actually having an operating asset?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Yes, Michael. This is Lee. In regards to that, I think obviously, we've got a pretty good line of sight around the Massachusetts offshore wind RFP in the process and we've got timelines as issued inside of the draft, and then it really becomes what is the timeline from the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, which falls under the Interior of the Secretary – Interior Secretary's office and there, there is – that's kind of – I would call that kind of work-in-progress that they've got kind of a draft timeline out there. We will be meeting later this year with staff in the office of Ocean offshore management and we need to work with them. And clearly there's other stakeholders here. There is a lot of offshore wind developers that will be working with the Interior Department as well to finalize what that process is, but I think this is – this is 2017. I think, that it's realistic to see the first tranche of wind in service by the 2022, end of 2022 timeframe based upon the feedback obviously we have from DONG Energy who has built a lot of this all over the world and so we feel the first part of this wind farm would come on in 2020. And of course, as you know it's not like building – 2022 rather. It's not like building a large power plant. You string six of these things together and the first six of them show up on to the grid and then every time you add another six, six more of them come onto to the grid. So it's kind of a phased in and so you have early revenue production in that process.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. And Phil you talked a little bit about your capital spending plan and budget. And I know you are going to give more detail either at EEI or at our fourth quarter call, but can you just kind of rehash a little bit of that and maybe give a little more clarity, where specifically would you see an uptick in kind of traditional, whether it's transmission or distribution CapEx in 2018, relative to what your prior forecast showed?
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Sure. I guess, I'll preface it by saying, I think we have very good line of sight even as we sit here today without moving through too much time through the rest of the year. We still have our budget process to go through, et cetera. But, really at this time we have a very good line of sight and just to remind you too that we've been repeatedly able to deliver these results. If you think back to our February plan, we added a $1 billion dollars of capital from the previous plan that had been submitted so. So certainly, we have a track record to be able to deliver these results and really with a focus on cost control that's unmatched in the industry. So we can deliver the results, take cost out of the business, improve our reliability, provide great service to customers and these are all great aspects of our company. So, we do have an experienced team, we have a strong balance sheet. If we look at it, as Lee mentioned, there's going to be additional infrastructure needs, there's going to be likely more clean energy growth opportunities. But to be specific about the things, in terms of electric distribution we have, in our gas distribution business we have these reliability enhancement programs that help to improve that service reliability on both the electric side and the gas side. We have aging infrastructure replacement and our gas expansion program in place that we expect to have incremental spending in both of those categories. That is fairly significant in 2018 from our original estimate. And as I mentioned, the water business, Aquarian, again depending on the exact closing date of that, there is a robust capital spending program in there. So those are really some of the – some of the major categories. You could see – you could see others develop as we move through the rest of the year.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. And can you quantify, is there a way to quantify how much incremental CapEx would likely come relative to kind of the movement of Northern Pass?
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
What I can say is, we fully expect to replace the spending in terms of the detail level and number. I'll have to hold off on that, but the short answer is, we fully expect to have a good line of sight to replacing any movement of spending out of 2018.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. Thank you, guys. Much appreciated.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thanks, Michael. Next question is from Shar Pourreza from Guggenheim. Good morning, Shar.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Good morning, guys. Let me just touch real quick on Northern Pass, I mean obviously the Hydro-Québec is actively the competing proposal, and obviously, both lines have relatively strong attributes. Let me ask you, assuming that you don't win these RFPs, when you think about future opportunities, is there an opportunity to partner because most agree that TDI is not going away. And then the other question is, can you just touch a little bit on – you're committed to building the project whether or not you win the RFP. So how would that work sort of mechanically?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Yes. A couple of things with regards to your question. On partnering obviously, we think we're quite good in partnering, because we had a lot of partners between Enbridge and HQ, and now DONG Energy, and so we think we're good in that. And should an opportunity to partner with these folks ever come up, we'll certainly consider that. That's not out of the question. But getting back to your second part of your question. Again, I think we'll win the RFP, the Massachusetts RFP, really because our sighting on both sides of the border is just about complete. The other projects we'll have to go, particularly those that interconnect with Canada have a two to three-year process, and which they're going to have to work through and whatever their state sighting processes are. Our engineering work and design is essentially completed. We have got our major contractors lined up, we have firm bids, we have firm place in the queues for manufacturing. And again, building these things poses a lot of risk unless you have the very best contractors, and we have those and particular with Quanta who has done a lot of work for us. And when you look at the, the Massachusetts RFP gives a special consideration for projects that are in service by the end of 2020, and just the fact that Northern Pass going into service, that have about 25% reduction in the electric sector Co2 emissions, so that we would be right where they need to be by the end of 2020. So it's got all the right attributes. And just to repeat what I said before, Shar we would – if for some reason we did not win this RFP, still we would sit down with our partners, HQ, assess where we are vis-à-vis the other states, and then make that decision to proceed. But I think both parties believe the project will get built for all of the reasons that I just covered.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Got it. That's actually very helpful. Let me just, on Aquarion, I know in your prepared remarks you talked about the attribute. Again it's located and doing business kind of locally. Obviously areas around the New England, especially on the water infrastructure side are very prone for acquisitions on the Muni, especially like in states like New Jersey. So when you sort of think about growth opportunities around this business, is there an opportunity to grow outside of New England? So could we eventually see this entity start to acquire Munis in surrounding regions where you have similar legislation or are you pretty much focused on remaining within the New England region?
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Yeah. Yes, Shar. This is Phil. I think that -
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Hi Phil.
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
How are you doing? So, first of all I'll say we're just starting our regulatory approval process. So our primary focus in the near term is to effectively move through those processes in the various states and get the approvals and move forward. Certainly you know, as we move forward into that business, we'd have to look at all the opportunities that present themselves, just like we do in all parts of our business, the projects that Lee has talked about, you have to look for those and you have to see what the opportunities are and move on then if they are in the best interest of the company. So, there's no reason to think we wouldn't do the same thing in all aspects of our business. So right now I'd say our focus is on getting the deal across the goal line in terms of the regulatory approvals, but in any aspect of what we look at, we're always looking for opportunities to grow the business, provide great service, produce returns for investors and results for customers that put us in the top quartile.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Great. Thanks. Thanks, everyone. Have a really good morning.
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Thank you.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thanks, Shar. Next question this morning is from Steve Fleishman from Wolfe. Good morning, Steve.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Hey, Jeff. Good morning. Sorry. It's been a distracting morning. So there's a little bit of repetition here. Just on – I saw some local stories where – does it look like the September 30 date is also going to delayed for approval in New Hampshire?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Yeah. This is Lee. There is going to be a SEC preconference meeting, I think on the 9th of August that will look at the final phase of the hearings. It will be the third one and it will lay out the schedule to the end of the – end of the hearing process. So, right now, I don't have anything other than the end of September timeframe for you. I think all of our witnesses will be done in their testimony by the end of August. And then it becomes the witnesses – the interviewing as witnesses for cross-examination. Obviously, most of that gets done by us. We will determine who we want to cross and who we don't want to cross and how we optimize that schedule. And then it's really written briefs by all parties, and then there will be a deliberation by the SEC and that would be public deliberation and a decision would be made. There will be an oral decision, which will be followed up by a written decision that would be somewhere between 30 and 60 days. So all of that we believe still falls into the timeframe that basically says that we will have the final EIS, the record of decision from the DOE, the SEC decision, the Presidential Permit by the end of the year, all of that leads us for essentially third quarter 2020 completion of the build-out testing, the remainder of the year within surface (50:51) all of that supports.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. So, let's say, I just started, but just let's say the dates only get them on August 9th or extend it -if it – you're assuming you're going to have a final order in New Hampshire by year-end. So, we would have to kind of measure against that I guess?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Yeah, yeah. And the ...
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay.
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
...and the other piece...
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
And do you feel good? Yes.
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
The other pieces fall right in place with that.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. And one question on the Northern Pass, kind of replacement capital that you say you'll come out with. Should we think of that as more moving forward capital that was in the plan and other businesses that was going to be in later years, moving that forward, or should we think about it as more actually just net new capital, new projects?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Yes. I'd say, primarily for the most part, it will be new. So there could be some movement, but I would expect that that would be a smaller portion of it, primarily new.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. Okay. Thank you.
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Thanks, Steve.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thanks, Steve. Next question is from Caroline Bone from Deutsche Bank. Good morning, Caroline.
Caroline V. Bone - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Hey. Good morning. Most of my questions have been answered. I just wanted to follow-up and I also – I feel like it's been a busy morning. So I apologize if I missed this earlier. The benefit you guys saw in Q2 from that renewable fund investment, is that something that we should expect to continue or is that just some sort of one-time gain? Can you just elaborate on that a bit more?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Sure, Caroline. I wouldn't consider it a one-time gain. It's been something that's been in our portfolio for many years. I'd say what was unusual was the size of it was probably higher than had been the case in the past. So we don't expect it to be significant going forward.
Caroline V. Bone - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. All right. Thank you.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
All right. Thank you, Caroline. Next question is from Praful Mehta from Citi. Good morning, Praful.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Hi. Thanks. So, actually I was struggling a little bit on the water side. You've talked about acquisitions as one possible opportunity to grow the water business. But if you're buying at multiples that are at the 25 times, 26 times or whatever the water business transactions get done. Where do you see the synergy or where do you see the value creation opportunity that would justify that kind of multiple?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Yes Praful, as I said, in terms of the operations and the asset of Aquarion, they are a very well run, well respected organization, have a number one in JD Power scores for their category. We're focused on growing the business. So I think there are growth opportunities that do exist in the water business. As I said, the small distressed systems are a growth opportunity that, that currently exist. And we see, if you look at the water business in terms of the water business versus the generation business that we're exiting, as I said, you have a business there that has no growth and is declining vis-à-vis a business that you're replacing that with, that has some potentially significant growth opportunities as we move forward with aging infrastructure and the like. So, we see it as an excellent opportunity and certainly good strategic fit.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Got you. Fair enough. And so, in terms of size going forward, what proportion should we think about? Is there a goal in terms of how much of a potential rate base or proportion of rate base of the consolidated business, you want the water business to be or should we look at it as a much smaller part of the whole business? Where do you see I guess the water business going longer term?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Yes. Certainly, if you look at the size of the existing generation business, it's about 3%. If you look at the existing, if you just take Aquarion, it's probably in that same general ballpark. I can't give you a specific targeted number today. But certainly, we do expect that number to grow over time.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Got you. Well, thank you guys.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thanks, Praful. Next question is from Travis Miller from MorningStar. Good morning, Travis.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Good morning, thank you. Just real quick, following up on Aquarion, I was wondering if you could discuss a little bit your regulatory goals, either through the approval process or in the subsequent one, two, three years in terms of things like allowed ROEs, cost riders, other cost recovery, just anything that comes to mind, things that were in your plan, in terms of making the acquisition?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Sure, sure.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
...from a regulatory side.
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Absolutely, as I mentioned in my remarks, I'll focus on Connecticut because 90% of the business of Aquarion is in Connecticut. And I would consider certainly Connecticut as a state that we're familiar with, that Eversource and Aquarion obviously is very familiar with from there, from the years of dealing in the regulatory space there. The water regulation is constructive in Connecticut. There are trackers for infrastructure programs. This is a so-called Wicca program. That's not my Boston accent, that's actually Wicca and the decoupling programs, that just like the electric industry, that decouples usage from – from the bill distress system. If you buy distressed systems you're allowed to put that into rate base or get a higher ROE allowance. So, certainly the regulatory's framework is constructive. The ROE in the water business there is at least equal to or better than what we have in our electric and gas business in Connecticut. So, certainly – and then if you look at it, you really have, I think local ownership really means a lot, that if you look at the rationale for the sale of the company, it was strictly related to a fund that Macquarie had that was needed to be dissolved. And that could have gone in a lot of different directions. So having local ownership where we expect to keep the existing operations pretty much in place. As I said, we're not in the water business. They have a great track record for operation. So all those things I think will be favorable.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Okay. Great. I Appreciate it.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thanks, Travis. Next question is from Mike Weinstein from Credit Suisse.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Hi. guys. Hey just a couple of follow-ups. On Steve's question regarding delays and the possible approvals by September 30, let's say the final approvals don't come until January instead of December, the year end, like at what point does the project get moved into 2021 for completion? Like when is the last possible moment you can get the presidential permit to start construction and still remain on schedule for end of 2020?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Yes. Steve this is Lee.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Mike...
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Mike, excuse me. Right now we have got our schedule set-up that we have all of our permits in hand, such that we can get ready to go for construction in the early part of the year and is there some slack in those schedules? Sure. As there on all schedules, and to the extent that if it did get late, would have to go back and would have to assess slack and any ways to optimize the schedule and we would have to make that call at that point in time. But we're really geared up to get all of these approvals by the end of the year, and that meets our schedule and service date in the third quarter of 2020. And we'll just have to assess that as we go. There is some slack in the schedule.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Okay. I guess, one thing I'd be concerned about is that the vendors might – if the delay is too long, the vendors might say, hey, no we have other customers that need this equipment.
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Yeah. No. That's a fair statement.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Yes.
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Because this equipment is in demand all over the world.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Right. Hey, a quick follow up on the one-time gain, that $0.04 gain in other income. Is that – was that part of the 2017 guidance? Is it – is this something that is an investment that you continue to payoff in future years or is this really just truly a one-time thing that was not included in the guidance?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Yeah, Mike, it wasn't really – it's not a $0.04. It was really a couple of cents that was in the quarter.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Yeah.
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
So the total change in that parent line was $0.03 to $0.04, but the incremental per share number related to that investment was just a couple of cents and really the reason it looks different is last year it was a $0.01 loss, this year it was a couple of cent gains. So it's a $0.03 swing. So it's in there – it's always in the guidance because we do have that investment and then, as I said, it generally is plus or minus a penny in that category. And I don't – it's not synonymous with, but we have other reconciliation items, I mentioned the transmission reconciliation. That's always in our guidance. That could go plus or minus. We have – we reconcile our energy efficiency programs, those could go plus or minus. So, it's really part of the ebb and flow.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Okay. And it's not, there isn't some ongoing $0.02?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
No. There was, the reason it was a little bit higher this year was, there was kind of a special contract that one of the investments had in 2016, that wasn't there the prior year. So, no, I would say it's not something that we would plan on going forward.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Okay. Also it sounds vaguely like there is some reserve of capital projects, that sits out there that?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
No, no. No. When you say reserve, what are you referring to Mike?
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Mike, you still there?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Hello. Yeah.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Yes. So I think....
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
All right. Maybe I'll move onto that...
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Oh, I'm sorry. Let's take the offline. (62:17) Can you just repeat the question, I think you may have gone on mute.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Oh. I'm sorry about that. Yes, I'm just wondering, it sounds like there is a reserve of capital projects that sit out there, that could be brought in to bear, when there is a delay in other projects. I know there is things being spent when projects are higher priority now, like they were in the past. You put off other things and those things can be brought forward, and brought into the plan, when there are delays. So, is this something that – should be we expecting a big increase in the capital program at EEI this year?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Well, again, we do announce the capital in our guidance in the February time period, but just like I think any effective financial and business planning operation, we don't just do it one time a year. We're continuously looking at what are our needs for our customers? What do we have on the schedule? Sometimes a project gets a little bit delayed in citing, but another project has progressed faster than we thought. So, we're not creating new activities to do. We're developing a capital program that is responsive to the needs of the region in terms of reliability or it's responsive to our customers. We're putting capital and our O&M is all directed at providing great customer service, top tier reliability, those types of things. So, but there is an ebb and flow in projects, and we don't just look at them once a year. So there are projects that do move. Some move faster so you can advance them, some move slower so they have to go into another year. But there's not a reserve out there, that we're picking from.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Mike you, I think we've lost you again. Are you still there? Okay. All right. Let's move on to, I think the last question today, Joe Jiu from Avon (64:14). Joe, are you there?
Unknown Speaker:
Actually, it's Andy. How are you guys doing?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Hi Andy. How are you doing?
Unknown Speaker:
I'm doing well. Just one last question on Northern Pass. Did you guys ever talked about it, because I guess through the RFP you're saying or just in general that you have 60 miles of undergrounding budgeted, is that correct?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Yes.
Unknown Speaker:
Right. And then, once the Site Evaluation Committee comes out with their final ruling sometime this year, is there like a number or meaning CapEx wise or mileage wise on the undergrounding that's kind of make or break?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Andy, this is Lee. I guess, you could say that, obviously by the nature of this process, it's a competitive process and really don't disclose all the parts and pieces of the cost. I – as I said earlier, we have now firm contracts and places in the queue. Important to note that the department of transportation has accepted our plan for undergrounding. The department of environmental services has accepted the project as is – as designed and so those are the two key agencies in New Hampshire that issue the reports around the viability of the design. And so we're quite confident in that design and we don't believe that in any way there is a justification to do more than 60 miles. So we think in and of itself, we're in a good place.
Unknown Speaker:
I understand that, but I'm just saying is there a – I guess, what – the point your making just before I ask my question is that based on those two agencies you don't think the SEC is going to ask you to underground more? Is that your point?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
I can't speak for the – for the SEC obviously. The agencies, there is members of – the heads of those agencies sit on the SEC, and the agencies themselves have provided final supporting reports that support the design as is, but clearly the SEC members vote independently.
Unknown Speaker:
Okay. And but is there – but I guess because of competitive reasons you're not going to kind of put out a number or mileage number or anything like that, that would make you or HQ feel uncomfortable to move ahead?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Yes.
Unknown Speaker:
Beyond the 60 miles that have been stated already.
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Yeah. I think that's fair to say, Andy.
Unknown Speaker:
Okay. That's fair. And then – just as far as how that relates to Massachusetts RFP, because I'm not that familiar with the process. So when you bid into the RFP, the amount of undergrounding, is that part of the kind of the economics of the bid or not?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
No. No, actually it isn't. You're basically going to bid a project and that has a number of attributes. Clearly it's going to be the cost of the project, it's going to be the deleverage cost per megawatt hour of the project and the energy, right. So you end up with a total cost and that has to be competitive. It's going to be – does the owners have site control, do they have the requisite experience in building these, do they have the financial ability to do it. How much risk are the developers asking to be placed on the EDC customers and so forth. And exactly when will it be in schedule, what are the attributes, the operational attributes in terms of things like deliverability, the voltage and so forth, does it have black start capability which Hydro does. Does it have the ISO-New England approval? So, they're going to look at all of those things and they'll have a grading process of approximately 100 points and they will score each project in accordance with that grading process.
Unknown Speaker:
Okay. I understand. So really in a sense the undergrounding affects the economics of the program, but it's really more for you guys relative to what it's going to cost the rate payer or the customer or the consumer to this Massachusetts RFP?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Yes. That's true, Andy.
Unknown Speaker:
Okay, great. Thank you, guys.
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
All right. Thank you, Andy.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
That's the last. I think some folks have already moved on to the 10 o'clock calls. Thanks for joining us this morning and please call me, if you have any follow-up questions.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy
Analysts:
Jerimiah Booream - UBS Securities LLC Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. Caroline V. Bone - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Paul Zimbardo - Citadel LLC
Operator:
Welcome to the Eversource Energy First Quarter Earnings Call. My name is Vanessa, and I will be the operator for your call today. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Jeffrey Kotkin, Vice President for Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thank you, Vanessa. Good morning and thank you for joining us. I'm Jeff Kotkin, Eversource Energy's Vice President for Investor Relations. As you can see on slide 1, some of the statements made during this investor call maybe forward-looking as defined within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risk and uncertainty, which may cause the actual results to differ materially from forecasts and projections. Some of these factors are set forth in the news release issued yesterday. Additional information about the various factors that may cause actual results to differ can be found in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2016. Additionally, our explanation of how and why we use certain non-GAAP measures is contained within our news release and the slides we posted last night on our website under Presentations & Webcasts, and in our most recent 10-K. Turning to slide 2, speaking today will be Phil Lembo, our Executive Vice President and CFO; and Lee Olivier, our Executive Vice President for Enterprise Energy Strategy and Business Development. Also, joining us today are Werner Schweiger, our Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer; Jay Buth, our Vice President and Controller; and John Moreira, our Vice President of Financial Planning and Analysis. Now, I will turn to slide 3 and turn over the call to Phil.
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Thank you, Jeff. Today, I'll cover four items
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Okay. Thanks, Phil. I'll provide you with a brief update on our major investment initiatives and then turn the call back to Jeff for Q&A. So let's start with Northern Pass on slide 7. The New Hampshire Site Evaluation Committee commenced final evidentiary hearings for the project on April 13 after rejecting several motions from the project opponents for a delay. Hearings are now scheduled to run through early August and we have been quite pleased with how they have proceeded thus far. We consider the New Hampshire SEC schedule to be supportive of the Committee's stated objective of issuing a final written order no later than September 30, 2017. Hearings in April focused on two of the key criteria that must be considered. These criteria include whether Northern Pass and Eversource have the technical, financial and managerial capability to construct, operate and maintain the project and whether approval of the project serves the public interest. These are foundational issues in the SEC review process. Our witnesses were very well-prepared and credible in responding to intervening questions, and those panels were completed on schedule. Earlier this week, hearings continued on the more technical aspects of the project and have continued to proceed quite well. Prior to the start of the hearings, the two key permitting agencies, the Department of Environmental Services and Transportation recommended approval of the project by the SEC. Both departments approved their respective permits for the project. We received the Department of Environmental Services recommendations and permits in early March and the report from the Department of Transportation in early April. The recommended conditions from these agencies were reasonable and consistent with our design. In addition, the State Division of Historical Resources, which is not one of the permitting agencies, also continues to review the project and, in its recent status report, concurred that their review of the process is on track. Nothing more is needed from the DHR before the SEC decision is reached. Once the New Hampshire SEC process is complete and assuming the project is approved with reasonable conditions, we expect a U.S. Department of Energy – a presidential permit to be issued by the end of this year. Before that point, probably late in the third quarter, we expect the DOE to release its final Environmental Impact Statement on Northern Pass. The preliminary EIS supporting the issuance of the presidential permit was issued nearly two years ago, and the DOE held a number of public meetings on the draft EIS in late 2015 and early 2016. While we have been advancing the project on the U.S. side of the border, Hydro-Québec has been pursuing siting on the Canadian side. The three-year Canadian process should be completed this summer, so by the end of this year, we expect Northern Pass to be fully permitted in both the United States and Canada. This supports our plan to move into the construction phase in the first quarter of 2018. In addition to the New Hampshire SEC, the New Hampshire Public Utilities Commission has been reviewing several items related to Northern Pass. You may recall that last year, Northern Pass was granted utility status by the PUC conditional upon receiving approval of the project from the SEC. In early April, following a preliminary review, the PUC ruled that it could move ahead with their review of the terms of the NPT proposed lease of Public Service of New Hampshire Transmission rights of way. That decision was also over the objection of project opponents. We expect a PUC decision on the proposed lease terms later this year. In March, the PUC also ruled on a 100-megawatt power purchase agreement signed last year by PSNH and Hydro-Québec. The PUC said that under the current state restructuring law, it did not have authority to approve such a PPA with PSNH. Such a contract is not required for siting or to move ahead with the project. In late March, the New Hampshire Senate overwhelmingly approved and sent to the House of Representatives Senate Bill 128, which would expand the PUC's authority to consider long-term contracts that would lower customer cost and improve grid reliability and fuel diversity. The current legislative session is due to end in late June, so we'll be watching the progress of this bill closely. We and Hydro-Québec will bid the Northern Pass project into the Clean Energy RFP that Massachusetts commenced March 31 for up to 9.45 terawatt hours annually for a period of up to 20 years. Bids are due on July 27 and the schedule indicates that the projects will be selected for negotiations by January 25. Separately, a draft RFP exclusively for offshore wind was filed by Massachusetts utilities with the DPU last week. The schedule calls for the RFP to be final and issued to the market by June 30, 2017. The RFP calls for interested bidders to submit at least one proposal for at least 400 megawatts. The draft also stated that alternative bids for up to 800 megawatts would be considered if bidders can show that a larger project would provide significant net economic benefits to customers. Bidders can also submit an alternative bid for as little as 200 megawatts. The timeline of the draft RFP calls for the selection of the winning bids by the spring of 2018 and the submission of contracts to the DPU by late 2018. Bay State Wind, a 50/50 partnership between Eversource and DONG Energy, will bid into the RFP. Finally, turning to slide 8, (20:13) continue to discuss the gravity of New England's wintertime energy supply situation with policymakers in Massachusetts and New Hampshire, the two states that do not have recent legislation clarifying electric utilities' ability to sign natural gas supply contracts. Brayton Point, the region's largest coal and oil-fired station, was shut down permanently at the end of this month and the Pilgrim nuclear plant will shut down two years later. ISO New England continues to express deep concerns over the region's ability to meet both gas heating and electrical requirements when temperatures drop. Later this year, ISO is due to issue a report on the challenges New England will face in future winters, if no significant natural gas transmission capacity is built into the region. So now, I'd like to turn the call back over to Jeff for Q&A.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thank you, Lee. And I'm going to turn the call back to Vanessa just to remind you how to enter the Q&A queue.
Operator:
And thank you.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thank you, Vanessa. Our first question this morning is from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from UBS. Good morning, Julien.
Jerimiah Booream - UBS Securities LLC:
Jerimiah Booream. How are you?
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Hey, Jerimiah.
Jerimiah Booream - UBS Securities LLC:
So just a quick question on the new project that was announced by National Grid, the Granite State Power Link. Do you guys view this as a competitor? And to the extent, you can provide any commentary around how that would impact your thought process on moving forward with your own project?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Yes. Jerimiah, this is Lee. No, we don't really look at that as a viable project for the April RFP. Obviously, they would have to go through the entire presidential permitting process. They would have to – which can take many years, as you know. They would have to go through siting in Vermont and New Hampshire in the – they don't have a supplier of energy, they don't have an interconnection into Canada, the Canadian process of three years. So when you look at the April RFP and you look at the preference in the Massachusetts RFP for projects that are in service by the end of December of 2020, we do not believe that is a viable alternative, which is not to say...
Jerimiah Booream - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay.
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
...it couldn't be a project for a future RFP.
Jerimiah Booream - UBS Securities LLC:
Yeah. Got it. And then, just on Access Northeast, is there any progress on legislation that's been moving forward or any commentary or update there?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Yeah. I just think the general commentary there is we just continue to have those conversations with legislators, we continue to educate them on the alternatives to not building a pipeline from the standpoint of threats to reliability and extreme volatility during the wintertime. And of course, as I mentioned, ISO is working on their no gas pipeline solution, which we believe will cause them to require certain actions to be taken that will not be in the best interests of the region's goals to reduce carbon and it will not be in the best interest of maintaining price stability for our customers.
Jerimiah Booream - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. Thanks very much.
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Welcome.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thanks, Jerimiah. Next question is from Mike Weinstein from Credit Suisse. Good morning, Mike.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Hi. Good morning. Hey, just a follow-up on Jerimiah's questions a little bit. For the Northern Pass project, could you comment on – is there any chance at all that the hearings could be pushed beyond September 30? What's your sense that September 30 is a good hard deadline in terms of their commitment to meeting at the Commission?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Yeah. Mike, this is Lee. I would just say that the New Hampshire SEC has been very precise, very comprehensive in how they have run the proceedings to date. They are right on schedule. I think the more testimony that is given and provided by the project, the clearer the project becomes. And we don't see at this point any probability or possibility that this date will be extended. I mean the meetings have been very crisp. The witnesses are very well-prepared and with the ability to answer all of the questions to-date.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
All right. Great. And to what extent is the land-based renewables RFP important for Northern Pass or not important?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Well, clearly, it is important from the standpoint that you have Hydro-Québec that wants to sell their energy into the New England marketplace. And if there is the ability to participate inside of an RFP and get a long-term contract at a fixed price, that's an advantage to HQ. So, clearly, there's an advantage there, but in any case, the RFP in and of itself does not determine the longevity of the project and the success of the project, because, in fact, there will be many RFPs, there will be many retirements. As we've said before, we see about 10,000 megawatts of retirements in New England, and Northern Pass will be viable in any of those as a source of clean energy for the region.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Right. Great. And just one last one for Phil. Hey, on the – I'm sorry if I missed this, but can you just remind us what – as you head into the Massachusetts rate cases for NSTAR and WMECO, what is the earned ROEs at these utilities going into the case? And what are you seeking coming out of it? How important are these rate increases for these utilities?
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Yeah, Mike. So, in the request, we're looking for a 10.5% ROE in the case and the total rate increase is about $60 million at NSTAR Electric and about $36 million at Western Mass Electric. So not – certainly, they're increases, but not double-digit types of increases. So we're earning close to those numbers. NSTAR Electric at the end of 2016 was probably a little shy of that number of 10.5% when you do all the calculations for Massachusetts, and Western Mass was closer to 9%, so not at the levels that we were looking for in this case.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Okay. Thanks a lot, guys.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
All right. Thanks, Mike. Next question is from Praful Mehta from Citi. Good morning, Praful.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Morning, guys. Thanks. So just a quick question on Access Northeast, more around what are the risks to timing and if there are delays, just wanted to understand what is the capital allocation strategy. Is it to wait and hold on to the capital to see when you actually can deploy towards Access Northeast? Or is there any share buyback or anything else on the cards if there are meaningful delays around Access Northeast?
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Yeah. So this is Phil, Praful. What we've said in our long-term forecast of 5% to 7% that Access Northeast is really a small part of the far end of that forecast. So it's not as if there'd be a significant amount of capital that we're expecting in our plan over the next two to three near-term years, so there really wouldn't be a significant amount of capital to think about redeploying. In terms of share repurchases, we're primarily interested, as we've said, in infrastructure that meet the needs of our customers and the region's energy needs. And really, we're looking for projects that are clean, that improve reliability and that manage to keep customer costs in line. So we don't have a share repurchase program authorized, and our focus would be on the infrastructure development.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Got you. Fair enough. And just quickly, any color on FERC ROE given all this uncertainty on where the ROE finally shows up, and as you laid out, the implications for you guys based on the invested capital you have on the transmission side? How do we think about the timing of how this plays out? How are you guys viewing it internally? You said you're going to review whether using your existing rate is the right one going forward in terms of your forecast. So, I guess, if you can just put out at least the boundaries of how we should think about the potential outcomes here.
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Sure. I guess, in the basic part of your – element of your question really I think gets to the point which is the situation is very fluid. The court decision is still recent, and really, the New England transmission owners, as a group, need to decide what the next steps will be. So that probably is a near-term determination because, in June, the transmission owners need to file a proposed regional network service rate. So it's certainly an active topic for discussion right now with the New England transmission owners. So one could say that the last approved ROE by FERC is the 11.14%, so that's the last actual number that's out there. So any other number is as good as any other number if it's not 11.14%. So we're on top of this right now, we're working with the other transmission owners, but I think you should see more from all of us in the near-term.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Got you. Thank you, guys.
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Okay.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thanks, Praful. Next question is from Travis Miller from Morningstar. Good morning, Travis.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc.:
Good morning. Thank you. I was wondering, real quick, on the gas distribution demand side, you've mentioned the 4.6% increase in the breakout of the numbers. How much of that was core and non-weather-related? And is that tracking along your plan?
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Well, as I said, versus normal, it's below. We've had to – the comparison of this year to last year was better, because it was a bit colder this year. But as I said, both 2017 and 2016 were quite a bit below normal, in the neighborhood of 6% to 7% heating degree days being below normal there. So we generally plan to normal, so I would expect that number would have been higher had we had hit normal weather.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc.:
The 4.6% would have been higher?
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Correct. Yeah. It was below normal weather in the first quarter.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc.:
Okay. Okay. And then, just generally...
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Because I said...
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc.:
What's that?
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Oh. Go ahead. Go ahead.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc.:
Yeah. Just generally, when you think about all the regulatory stuffs going on, the rate cases at FERC, the transmission projects with gas or electric would you say are the number one or two most important, most critical outcomes or resolutions that you need for the company overall, and particularly shareholders?
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Well, Travis, I think I've always said when you're in a business where 100% of your revenues are determined in a regulatory arena, certainly, positive regulatory outcomes are important across the board. And if there's one company that you can point to as the poster child for getting two positive regulatory outcomes and having constructive relationships, whether they be at the state level or other, it's Eversource. So we feel very good about our abilities there and our ability to work with constructive regulation in the states. So I think they're all important, because we are highly-regulated obviously, but we do an effective job there.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc.:
Okay. Great. Thanks so much.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thanks, Travis. Next question is from Caroline Bone from Deutsche Bank. Good morning, Caroline.
Caroline V. Bone - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Hey. Good morning, guys. I just have some follow-up questions on Northern Pass. So last quarter, you guys talked about the need to place an order for certain equipment. I was just wondering if you had any further idea on when that order might be placed?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Yeah, Caroline. This is Lee. The schedule that we have right now with the SEC in New Hampshire is really – May is really all about a couple of things. It's all about construction and it's all about the environmental impact, and that ends probably in the beginning of June. And then, at that point in time, we'll have a better sense of the construction practices. We'll have a better sense of any other environmental impact that may cause us to change the equipment orders from our current design. So I think we'll be in a better position then to look at making those orders around that period of time. We continue to have conversations with the vendors, such as ABB, and to understand more about what will be required to do the design and construction or manufacturing, but really, we need to get to the beginning of June to have a better sense of that.
Caroline V. Bone - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
All right. That's very helpful, but I guess one just follow-up to that. Does the Massachusetts Clean Energy RFP have any impact on when that order might be placed? Or is it kind of a separate issue?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
I would conclude that that's really a separate issue. It's really all about understanding what the final design is, because we don't want to go forward, order equipment, kick off engineering in and around it, only to find out the design is different and that becomes a re-do and is an expense that we don't want to incur.
Caroline V. Bone - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. Thanks. And then, just one more minor one. With regards to the final EIS from the DOE, do they want to see the final SEC decision before they put out their final EIS?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
No, not necessarily. The presidential permit will come after the SEC decision. So you'll have the final EIS, you'll have the SEC outcome, and then, you get the presidential permit, so no, they don't need to see that.
Caroline V. Bone - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
All right. Thanks very much.
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Welcome.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thanks, Caroline. The next question is from Paul Zimbardo from Citadel. Good morning, Paul.
Paul Zimbardo - Citadel LLC:
Hi. Good morning. I had a quick clarification question. I'm sorry, I was a little confused. On Mike and Caroline's question. I know the slide says first quarter 2018 construction commencing; would you commence construction before that, I think you said January 25, RFP selection date?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
I'm sorry. Is the question...?
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
He's talking about the Mass RFP identifying winners by January 25, 2018 and would the construction schedule in the first quarter of 2018 depend on what happens on January 25? Is that your question, Paul?
Paul Zimbardo - Citadel LLC:
Yes. Like if it's – if there was any firmer timing in January – or in first quarter 2018?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
No. I think currently, where we are is, assuming we have a successful outcome of the SEC process, we will start construction in the first quarter of 2018.
Paul Zimbardo - Citadel LLC:
Okay, great. Thank you very much.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thank you, Paul. That's the last question that we have for this morning. So we want to thank you very much for joining us and we look forward to seeing you at the upcoming conferences over the course of May. Take care.
Operator:
And thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy James J. Judge - Eversource Energy Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy
Analysts:
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI Christopher R. Ellinghaus - The Williams Capital Group LP Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research) Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.
Operator:
Welcome to the Eversource Energy Fourth Quarter Earnings Call. My name is John, and I'll be your operator for today's call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. Please note that this conference is being recorded. And now, I will turn the call over to Jeffrey Kotkin.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thank you, John. Good morning and thank you for joining us. I'm Jeff Kotkin, Eversource Energy's Vice President for Investor Relations. We posted a slide deck on our website last night, and we'll be referencing those slides this morning. Now, as you can see on slide one, some of the statements made during this investor call maybe forward-looking as defined within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risk and uncertainty, which may cause the actual result to differ materially from forecast and projections. Some of these factors are set forth in the news release issued yesterday. Additional information about the various factors that may cause actual results to differ can be found in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2015 and 10-Q for the period ended September 30, 2016. Additionally, our explanation of how and why we use certain non-GAAP measures is contained within our news release and the slides we posted last night on our website under presentations and webcast, and in our most recent 10-K. Turning to slide two, speaking today will be Jim Judge, our President and CEO; Lee Olivier, our Executive Vice President for Enterprise Energy Strategy and Business Development; and Phil Lembo, our Executive Vice President, CFO and Treasurer. Also, joining us today are Jay Buth, our Vice President and Controller; and John Moreira, our Vice President of Financial Planning and Analysis. Now, I will turn to slide three and turn over the call to Jim.
James J. Judge - Eversource Energy:
Thank you, Jeff, and thank you all for joining us this morning. I want to take a few minutes to provide some high level comments on our 2016 accomplishments and our outlook for 2017 and beyond before turning the call over to Lee and Phil to provide the details. Let me start with slide four by discussing our long-term vision to Eversource Energy. We aspire to be the most successful and respected energy company in the country. I think that involves Eversource becoming the primary catalyst for low-cost clean energy development in New England. We expect to provide our 3.7 million electric and natural gas customers with superior service, which means top tier reliability, prompt and responsive customer service, helpful insights into what drives energy use, and how customers can utilize their energy more efficiently. We expect to partner in executing the energy strategies of the three states we serve. And finally, we will help strengthen our communities, not just on energy issues but to support civic and charitable needs that are important to the economic vibrancy. For investors, we expect to continue to provide you with the best risk adjusted returns in the industry with very strong earnings and dividend growth, paired with growing cash flows and an attractive balance sheet. As you can see in last night's news release and on slide five, we project annual earnings growth of 5% to 7% through 2020 using the $2.96 per share we earned in 2016 as the base. We're confident that such a growth rate is very well founded and achievable under a wide range of scenarios. Phil will provide you with some of the sensitivities shortly. As you can see on slide six, we raised the common dividend by 6.6% last year, and earlier this month our board approved an additional 6.7% increase for 2017. These increases are consistent with our goal of raising the dividend at a rate that is consistent with our earnings growth. Our payout ratio of 60% is relatively low for a regulated electric and gas company, and our S&P ratings are the best in the industry, which illustrates the depth of our financial strength. We chalked up a number of accomplishments in 2016 that were consistent with our long-term focus. In terms of operations, you can see on slide seven that we continued to provide top tier service reliability for our customers, and introduced a number of enhancements that will allow us to respond more quickly to routine and emergency requests. We completed our $2.2 billion capital plan for the year. We managed well within our operating budgets, which largely offset the negative impact of one of the warmest first quarters ever in New England, allowing us to finish 2016 within the earnings guidance that we provided to you a year ago. Since our merger in 2012, we have reduced annual operations and maintenance expense by approximately $250 million, even while measures of service quality have improved and some have improved dramatically. We also made significant progress in 2016 on our strategic initiatives. In December, we announced the formation of Bay State Wind with Danish Oil and Natural Gas, the world's leading developer of offshore wind generation, to develop 300 square miles offshore wind site on a continental shelf south of Cape Cod and the islands. We will bid the project into the initial Massachusetts RFP for offshore wind this summer. Also in December, we received Massachusetts regulatory approval for the construction of 62 megawatts of additional solar generation. While in New Hampshire, regulators reiterated their support for the sale of 1,200 megawatts of PSNH's mostly fossil generation. Also, in New Hampshire, the Site Evaluation Committee appears to be solidly on a path to issue a decision on Northern Pass within the next seven months. When taken together, you can see how we continue to position Eversource Energy as the leader in supporting our region's rapid development of clean-generating sources. Reducing the region's carbon footprint requires other initiatives as well. First, it requires increased access to natural gas to provide both base load energy and balancing resources that allow for the construction of more wind and more solar sources. It also requires increased pipeline capacity to provide customers with the opportunity to change their primary heating source from oil to natural gas. As we will discuss, we had some disappointments in 2016 on Access Northeast. But we and our partners Spectra Energy and National Grid, firmly believe the project is critical to enabling the region to meet its energy goals, and to keep energy affordable for our customers in the winter. We all remain committed to its success. As Phil will discuss, achieving our financial, operating and strategic goals requires us to have strong trusting relationships with our policymakers, particularly, our state regulators. Three of the four electric distribution companies will have rate reviews this year. Given the strong record of reliability and customer service we have had over the past several years, and the significant reduction in operating cost that we have realized for customers, we are confident in achieving reasonable outcomes in these proceedings. For us, those outcomes will provide customers with continued improvements in service, as we continue to invest heavily in our distribution systems, while providing reasonable rate levels. Finally, I want to stress the talent of our 7,800 employees who delivered these excellent results, and I'm so glad as CEO to say they delivered them in a safe manner. 2016 was, in fact, our best year ever for employee safety. We went through a great deal of change in 2016, and we continued to perform extremely well. Last May, Tom May, stepped down from his great run as CEO, and when I became CEO, Phil seamlessly moved into the CFO role. We've been very successful lifting many of our operating metrics to the upper tier of the industry, while lowering our cost through standardization of best practices. Lee and his team continued to advance our new investment opportunities, whether they are Northern Pass, Access Northeast, Bay State Wind, Massachusetts Solar or new opportunities in electric vehicle charging infrastructure and energy storage. This strong performance explains why we're so optimistic about our future. Now, I'll turn over the call to Lee.
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Okay. Thanks, Jim. And before I start, I'll just say for an excuse me for my voice. I've been a little bit of whatever is going around here in February. However, I will provide you with a brief update on our major investment initiatives and then turn the call over to Phil. Let's start with Northern Pass in slide nine, and New Hampshire Site Evaluation Committee or SEC has set evidentiary hearing dates on the project which begin on April 4 and continue through July 21. We consider this schedule supportive of the SEC stated commitment to issue a final written order no later than September 30, 2017. The project also has secured a major legal victory on January 31 when the New Hampshire Supreme Court upheld a lower court decision, which found that the State Department of Transportation has exclusive authority to approve construction of utility facilities along and beneath state highways. Project opponents have claimed the utilities were also required to obtain permission of adjacent property owners to construct facilities in the public right of way. This was a very important ruling for the project since 60 miles of undergrounding we have proposed is largely under state and local roads. Since our last conference call, interveners have filed their testimony and we've had the opportunity to query their witnesses. Next week, several state agencies including transportation, environmental services, and historic resources are scheduled to file their recommendations on the project to the SEC. Governor Sununu continues to be a strong supporter of Northern Pass, recognizing the billions of dollars of economic benefits it will bring to the State, in addition to the significant reduction in the region's carbon emissions, about 3 million fewer tons of CO2 annually, even mentioned the need for Northern Pass and the lower electric bills the project will bring to make New Hampshire businesses more competitive in his inaugural speech. As you can see from slide 10, assuming we will receive a favorable decision from the SEC in September, we expect to receive the U.S. Department of Energy approval before the end of this year. With those approvals on hand, we expect to begin the construction early in 2018, and for the project to be completed by the end of 2019. Our new capital forecast shows capital expenditures associated with Northern Pass of about $680 million in 2018 and $800 million in 2019. We will have a better estimate on the final testing plan and in-service date later this year once we have more clarity on the SEC and the DOE approvals, and the equipment manufacturing schedule. We will bid Northern Pass into a clean energy RFP that Massachusetts will be running in the spring. Turning to slide 11, you can see that the legislation signed last August by Governor Baker authorizes the State's electric distribution companies to purchase 9.5 terawatt hours of clean energy with the full amount contracted no later than 2022. The initial RFP is scheduled to be released by April 1, 2017 or approximately five weeks from now. A draft RFP issued earlier this month calls for bids to be submitted by July 27. We believe Northern Pass is very well-positioned for this RFP, which specifically allows large hydro to be eligible. You will notice on the slide that the same legislation that created the April Clean Energy RFP also requires the state to issue an RFP by the end of June for a minimum of 400 megawatts of offshore wind with a full 1,600 megawatts contracted by 2027. As you can see on slide 12, and as Jim discussed earlier, we announced in December a partnership with DONG Energy of Denmark, the world's leading developer of offshore wind generation to develop a 300-mile square track, 15 to 25 miles south of Martha's Vineyard. Our Bay State Wind partnership calls for us to share 50-50 in all development costs and associated benefits. Bay State Wind ultimately can own enough wind turbines to generate at least 2,000 megawatts of clean renewable power. This area is attractive because the water depths are relatively shallow about 30 to 65 meters, and the wind speeds are high and reliable, resulting in high capacity factors similar to base load generation. This is particularly valuable in the winter when electricity is more costly in New England due to our natural gas pipeline constraints. We expect that once a winner or winners are selected, contracts with Massachusetts electric companies will be filed with the DPU in the first half of 2018, with commission with approvals later in the year. We will expect the permitting would take several years with construction not starting until after 2020. As a result, the capital forecast released today does not reflect Bay State Wind construction expenditures in it. While our offshore wind opportunity is a number of years out, we expect it will be very significant as New England States continue to push toward a 75% to 80% reduction in carbon emissions by 2050, offshore wind will become an increasingly attractive option. The experience in Europe showed a 50% reduction in construction cost over the past four years as a supply and network was built up. Turbines became larger and construction techniques improved. Wind sites off of southeast of Massachusetts are much closer to New England's load centers than onshore wind sites in Northern New England, and involve much less transmission construction and potential for scheduled delays. As a result, we expect offshore wind to be a very competitive renewable source of power in the Northeast. Massachusetts also views offshore wind as a significant economic development opportunity. Bay State Wind and two other firms that have secured offshore wind tracks south of Martha's Vineyard, have identified New Bedford in Southern Massachusetts as one of its potential staging areas for offshore logistics and construction. Other states may also consider energy and economic benefits of this opportunity as well. From Bay State Wind, I will turn to Access Northeast in slide 13. You may recall that three of the New England States, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Maine passed legislation in recent years, explicitly allowing their respective electric distribution companies to sign long-term contracts for a natural gas pipeline capacity. Each of these states has shown strong support for modernizing the region's natural gas pipeline infrastructure to improve energy reliability, reduce carbon emissions from coal, oil generation and lower price volatility, and total energy cost for customers. In fact, the main PUC last summer voted to move forward with Access Northeast. Unfortunately, there is currently a lack of uniform energy regulatory policy across the New England States. In Massachusetts, the Supreme Judicial Court ruled in August that the state's electric distribution companies could not sign such contracts. And a couple of months later, the New Hampshire Public Utilities Commission said, they could not approve such contracts under current law. As a result, our focus is on developing new path forward that would continue to include participation of all New England States. One option involves pursuing a change in the laws in Massachusetts and New Hampshire so that they align with statutes (17:47) in Connecticut, Rhode Island and Maine. We also appealed the New Hampshire PUC audit of the State Supreme Court, which agreed last week to consider the case. Another avenue is to secure contracts with natural gas distribution companies in Massachusetts and other New England States. We are not alone and want to develop a path forward. In fact, all New England Governor (18:11) support a reasonable approach. However, we need to resolve the issues in Massachusetts and New Hampshire to move ahead. One fact that hasn't changed is the need for Access Northeast. Once a time prices in New England continued to be a couple of cents a kilowatt hour higher than they are outside the winter season. This fact continues to add about $1 billion a winter to the cost of supply in the region, 6.5 million electric customers with electricity, and requires the continued operation of older, higher emitting generation such as coal and oil plants. The differential is solely due to winter pipeline constraints which lead to power plant curtailments. The region's supply situation is illustrated on slide 14. We simply don't have enough of natural gas this time of the year to both heat our homes and businesses, and to run the region's power plants. Access Northeast is uniquely positioned to address this problem since it touches 60% of the regions gas-fired power generation. The region's supply situation will worsen in June when the largest coal and oil generator, the more than 1,500 megawatt Brayton Point Power Station retires. Pilgrim nuclear station is slated to retire two years later. And every base load unit that is slated into service over the period of time is fueled by natural gas. New England's natural gas supply situation may also worsen following the retirement of New York's Indian Point nuclear units now expected to retire in 2020 and 2021. It's likely that New York State will replace much of the lost Indian Point generation with power from new combined cycle natural gas units. This would further tighten natural gas supplies as you move east from the Marcellus and into New England. Well, that underscores the need for all of our major projects. It does not bode well for the long-term cost facing the winning (20:13) customers, and is likely to have severe reliability impacts. In Maine and New Hampshire, the issue of electricity cost continues to be a high profile issue with manufacturers of products (20:26) paper goods to firearms, to chocolates saying they're having difficult time competing with other regions of the country due to our high energy prices, and the volatility of that energy. Some of these customers have recently announced plans to expand or move current operations out of the region. In his annual State of the Grid report three weeks ago, and in the 2017 Regional Electricity Outlook that was released yesterday, ISO New England President and CEO, Gordon van Welie warned that New England is challenged to meet electricity demands with existing fuel infrastructure, particularly during the winter. He said, market rules would need to change if we cannot invest in new gas infrastructure or allow increased use of dual-fuel capacity, which will further add greater carbon to the region. The clear message is that New England needs access to increased supplies of natural gas in the winter, and needs it soon unless it wants its reliability to be dependent on old units, oil and coal built in the 1950s and 1960s, that are past their efficient lives. The recently concluded forward capacity auction will likely place more pressure on the region's older oil and coal units. Those units depend heavily on capacity revenues since they have very low energy revenues in today's market, especially during mild winters like we've had in the past two years. As you can see on slide 15, after picking two years ago, capacity payments have declined in each of the past two auctions falling to $5.30 per kilowatt hour a month for the 12 months starting June 1, 2020. We fully expect more of our older fossil generation units to retire in the coming years, only to be replaced by renewables and more natural gas-fired capacity, thereby deepening the region's need for Access Northeast. Now, I'm going to turn the call over to Phil.
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Thank you, Lee. And today I have a few topics to cover; one would be our fourth quarter and full year financial results. I'll talk about our 2017 and long-term earnings guidance, growth guidance. I'll give you an update on several of our transmission projects, discuss several of the key state and federal regulatory dockets that we have pending, and provide some color on our new capital expenditure and transmission rate base forecast. So, let me start with the quarter on slide 17. We earned $229.2 million or $0.72 per share in the fourth quarter of 2016 compared to earnings of $181.8 million or $0.57 per share in the fourth quarter of 2015. Our transmission segment earned $0.33 per share in the fourth quarter of 2016, that compares to $0.25 per share in the fourth quarter of 2015. One of the – two primary drivers for this earnings growth was higher transmission rate base which is due to our continued investment in the reliability of the New England power grid, and I will update you on some key reliability-driven projects in a minute. But the other principal driver was a settlement approved by FERC last month that allows us to recover certain merger-related costs through our transmission rates. The settlement added $0.05 per share in the fourth quarter. FERC had previously allowed recovery of these costs beginning in June, and we had started recording that at that time, but it was subject to a final decision. On the Electric Distribution and Generation side, we earned $0.26 per share in the fourth quarter of 2016 compared with earnings of $0.28 per share in the fourth quarter of 2015. Fourth quarter results decreased in 2016 primarily due to higher depreciation, property tax, interest and bad debt expense, and partially offset by some higher distribution revenues in the period. On the Natural Gas Distribution side, we earned $0.08 per share in the fourth quarter of 2016 and that compared to earnings of $0.05 per share in the fourth quarter of last year. Although still somewhat warmer than average, temperatures in the fourth quarter of 2016 were much colder than during the same period of 2015 when we experienced by far the warmest December on record. Cold temperatures in 2016 resulted in 22% increase in the fourth quarter from natural gas sales in 2016 as compared to 2015. At the Eversource parent and other, we earned $0.05 per share in the fourth quarter of 2016 compared to a slight loss in the fourth quarter of 2015. We benefited this year from a lower effective tax rate and the absence of $8 million of integration cost that were recorded in the fourth quarter of 2015. Turning from the fourth quarter to the full year results, we earned $942.3 million or $2.96 per share in 2016, compared with GAAP earnings of $878.5 million or $2.76 per share in 2015. Those 2015 earnings included $0.05 per share in integration cost. Transmission earnings totaled $1.16 per share in 2016, compared with earnings of $0.96 per share in 2015. In addition to a higher rate base, 2016 results benefited from the absence of a $0.04 charge that we recorded in 2015 related to a FERC decision, the first return on equity complaint against the New England transmission owners, from the recovery of merger-related cost I mentioned earlier. On the Electric Distribution and Generation segment, we earned $1.46 per share in 2016, that compares to $1.59 per share in 2015. The decline was primarily due to the absence of $0.12 per share of benefits that we recognized in the first and fourth quarters of 2015 as a result of resolving multiple regulatory proceedings at NSTAR Electric, primarily involving recovery of bad debts and infrastructure investments. Additionally, higher depreciation and property tax expense resulted from our ongoing investment in distribution system reduced full year earnings by $0.07 per share. On the Natural Gas Distribution segment, we earned $0.24 per share in 2016, compared to earnings of $0.23 in 2015. Rate increase at NSTAR Gas, and continued customer growth was partially offset by much milder first quarter weather in 2016 impacting those results. At the parent, we earned $0.10 per share in 2016 compared to a loss of $0.02 per share in 2015. Much of that change was related to the absence of approximately $15 million of integration cost in 2015. We also benefited from lower effective tax rate during the year. O&M continues to be a good story, positive story for us and it was again in 2016 as our employees continued to provide excellent reliability for our customers while also reducing costs. Lower O&M added $0.08 per share to earnings in 2016, really, if you would exclude the benefits we recorded in the first and fourth quarters of 2015 when regulatory orders allowed us to reduce the level of bad debts at NSTAR Electric by more than $35 million on a pre-tax basis. So, positive O&M story again in 2016. Turning from our financial results to operations. Our transmission investments totaled approximately $900 million in 2016, and that compares to approximately $800 million in 2015 and $700 million in 2014. As you can see on slide 18, we progressed very well on a number of major transmission reliability projects during the year. Through December 31, we invested $134 million in 28 different projects that together comprise the $560 million Greater Boston Reliability Solutions suite. We expect to conclude the final Greater Boston work in 2019. We've invested $117 million through 2016 in the Greater Hartford projects, which again are a variety of 27 different projects, which together we expect to complete in 2018 at a cost of approximately $350 million. All these projects listed here are progressing very well, according to budget and schedule. From operations, I'll turn to our regulatory activity and start in Massachusetts in slide 19. On January 17, we filed electric rate reviews with the Massachusetts DPU for NSTAR Electric and Western Mass Electric. While we filed two different sets of rate schedules, we've notified the DPU and FERC that we are seeking to legally merge the two companies in 2018. From an operations perspective, they currently are operating on a integrated basis and providing excellent service to our 1.4 million electric customers in the Bay State. The rate review costs were an increase, modestly, (30:46) distribution revenues of about $60 million at NSTAR Electric and $36 million at Western Mass Electric. As part of that, we were also seeking a performance-based, rate-making initiative which incorporates investments of $400 million capital initiatives over the next five years. That includes $120 million in new distribution automation, $100 million in energy storage, $45 million in new electric vehicle infrastructure. Additionally, we're filing for revenue decoupling at NSTAR Electric, and Western Mass Electric has had full revenue decoupling since 2011. In terms of schedule, Intervenor Testimony is due April 21. Here, in the schedule for June with the final decision expected by the end of November of this year. Our other general distribution rate review this year will be in Connecticut at Connecticut Light and Power which we are required to file this June as a result of our 2012 Connecticut merger settlement agreement. We expect the rate request at CL&P to be quite modest. And really, in each of these rate reviews, in Massachusetts and in Connecticut, we present the compelling story of really dramatically improving reliability while reducing cost for customers. Moving to slide 20. Here we discuss possible impacts of any changes to the federal tax code. While we expect Congress will start to address tax reform this year, I'm not sure that anybody and we don't know what the timing will be or how will exactly the final tax reform will impact us or our customers. Nonetheless, as a regulated T&D company, the vast majority of all the impacts of tax reform including any cross-border tax, if they were to occur, are likely to be passed through to customers in rates and in revenue requirement changes. As you can see on this slide, the customers would benefit obviously from lower corporate tax rate, as well as a potential refund of ADIT balances. However, these benefits could be largely offset if there's potential non-deductibility of interest of property tax or state income tax, so much to be determined. But our reference will focus on working with our regulators, legislators and the industry in general to ensure that (33:24) changes benefit our customers in the form of lower rates and protect our shareholder interest. We expect very modest impact on Eversource's ongoing financial results, lower ADIT balances would likely increase rate base. However, that could be offset if the nearly $60 million of our parent interest is no longer deductible. And we have very little in terms of unused tax credits, so minimal impact on Eversource. Now, moving into 2017, and the earnings guidance. Our guidance for 2017 is earnings per share in the $3.05 to $3.20 range, and one of the assumption there is we assume the current FERC ROEs remain in place of 10.57% ROE that we currently have in place with a cap of 11.74%. We continue to have multiple dockets around transmission ROEs pending, at FERC. The status of each complaint is noted on slide 21. As you know, no decision was made on complaints two and three before retirement of Chairman Bay this month. So, maybe a number of months before these complaints are decided. From transmission, I'll turn to generation, slide 22. On December 29, the Massachusetts DPU approved an application from NSTAR Electric and Western Mass Electric to build a total of 62 megawatts of solar facilities in the Commonwealth. We've commenced with the design and contracting, siting and permitting and approval processes, and expect to invest approximately $200 million in these facilities this year. In New Hampshire, the PUC has approved the auction process for PSNH's 1,200 megawatt of generation and published a schedule for the auction. We expect the PUC to receive final binding bids in early August and close on the transaction later and prior to the end of 2017. As you may recall, existing New Hampshire Legislation enables the recovery of all of our plant and investment through the sale – through securitization if there's any stranded cost that from the net proceeds of the sale. Now, turn to slide 23, and the capital investment plan that supports our 2017 guidance and really a long-term 5% to 7% growth rate through 2020. You can see that we project capital expenditures of $2.7 billion in 2017 and nearly $10 billion from 2017 through 2020. These figures include $1.5 billion of investment in Northern Pass through 2019. And incremental investments in Access Northeast or Bay State Wind would be an additive to the $10 billion figure. There are number of changes in this forecast as compared with the one we published a year ago that support our growth rate through 2020. And let me just say upfront, that if you take the time period from our last CapEx forecast which included years 2017 through 2019, and you look at those very same years and this year's forecast, spending is up about $1 billion in that time period. So, let me get into some of the more details of the plan. First, as I said, there's additional capital spending in our forecast to really strengthen and protect our system. Even though we've moved most of Northern Pass construction from 2017 to 2018 and 2019, we've identified other critical work for this year resulting in a capital budget for 2017 of $2.71 billion, which is consistent and slightly ahead of the $2.66 billion estimate for 2017 that we had forecasted at this time last year. Transmission investments at our four regulated utilities are expected to total $950 million for this year as compared with $609 million we have projected a year ago. We are forecasting $1.4 billion of transmission capital expenditures in 2018 and $1.2 billion in 2019. Also, we expect to invest $3.9 billion in Electric Transmission over the next four years. Estimated cost for the major transmission projects are very similar to what we had projected last year, $1.6 billion for Northern Pass, $560 million for the Greater Boston suite of projects, $350 million for the Greater Hartford suite of projects. The increased capital expenditures in 2017 and 2018 are really driven by a few items including spending on critical infrastructure protection projects, storm hardening and various projects related to reliability in terms of line replacement and pole structural changes. On the Electric Distribution side, we're projecting investments of approximately $1.2 billion this year including our solar investment, which I mentioned, was $200 million. And then, approximately, $900 million per year from 2018 through 2020. Other than the solar investment, our Electric Distribution forecast is similar to what we had showed a year ago. We've also significantly increased our projected investment in our Natural Gas Distribution business. As you can see on slide 24, in 2016, we invested approximately $270 million in that business segment, and we have raised our capital investment levels in that segment over the next four years to total nearly $1.5 billion including the $364 million in 2017. There are number of factors really driving the level of spending there compared with past years. And the first is driven by state policymakers who want our oldest – our older cast iron and unprotected steel pipe removed from our system at a faster pace. We spent about $113 million on pipe replacement in 2016, and we expect to increase that to $118 million in 2017, and that's a level we expect to maintain in the following years. We're also at the early stages of a $200 million upgrade at our natural gas storage facility in Eastern Massachusetts for which we have a capital expenditure tracker in place. That project should be completed in 2020. As you can see from this slide, nearly 50% of all the Natural Gas Distribution capital investment in the forecast is tracked to approve regulatory rate mechanism. So, we received immediate recovery for that. This includes the gas system expansion mechanism enabled by the Connecticut legislature several years ago that Yankee Gas continues to use to connect more residential, commercial, industrial and municipal customers to its system. Earlier this month, the Massachusetts DPU approved a much more modest but similar pilot program at NSTAR Gas. Natural gas remains the fuel of choice for new construction in our service territory. And depending on the type of oil large commercial and industrial customers' use, they can reduce their energy bills by up to – by nearly 40%, really by converting from oil to natural gas, really even at today's oil prices. Natural gas conversions also support Connecticut's efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050. A few years ago, we have projected that we would be able to double the earnings of our Natural Gas Distribution segment from $60 million in 2013 to more than $120 million in 2023. And we earn nearly $78 million in that segment in 2016 despite a very mild first quarter. So, you can see we're on plan to achieve our forecast. You can see on slide 25 that over the next four years, we expect Electric Transmission and Natural Gas Distribution to represent a larger share of our rate base. With transmission rising to 42% of our rate base and natural gas to 11%. We project our overall rate base to total $19.2 billion by the end of 2019 and $19.7 billion by the end of 2020. I should note that the 2019 figure is $900 million that was a in our projection a year ago. Most of that increase about (43:08) $650 million is, again, attributable to investment in Electric Transmission. The other growth comes from increased investment in the Natural Gas Distribution pipe replacement in our recently approved Massachusetts solar program. Investment in our system is expected to be the principal driver of earnings growth over the next four years. But another is the continued cost management of our operating cost. Over the next four years through 2020, we still have significant opportunities to reduce cost, but not at the same scale as the past four years during which, as Jim mentioned, we reduced O&M by about $250 million. These costs are being driven – cost reductions are being driven by our continued implementation of standardization and best practices throughout the company and consolidation of several business applications to a more modern technology with greater functionality and flexibility. All of these changes will make us even more efficient and better able to meet our customers' needs while lowering costs. Lastly, I want to turn to our financing plans. To start, I want to reiterate that we have no plans to issue equity over the next four years to finance our capital expenditures and dividend growth. We expect many of our companies to issue debt during the year. Debt issuances will continue – debt issuances will result from a combination of capital expenditure programs and debt maturities, and we provided a list of this year's debt maturities in the appendix to the materials. So, in closing, we're very confident and very proud of our accomplishments over the past five years. And then slide 26 illustrates the progress on multiple fronts. We continue to be a company that delivers on its promises, improving service to our customers, addressing our region's unique energy challenges, and providing new investors with above-average earnings and dividend growth while maintaining high level of financial strength and stability. I look forward and we all look forward to seeing many of you at our investor conferences coming up in Boston and in New York over the next week. And now, I'll turn the call back to Jeff for any Q&A.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thank you, Phil. And I'll turn the call back to John, just to remind you how to enter questions. John?
Operator:
Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thank you, John. Our first question this morning is from Mike Weinstein from Credit Suisse. Good morning, Mike.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Hey. Good morning. Thanks for the very thorough update. First question is on the transmission ROEs. Are you expecting any kind of impact from the loss of a quorum at FERC on the outcome for complaints two and three?
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
I'm sorry, Mike. Could you – I think you broke up there for a minute. Could you repeat that?
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Oh, yeah. Are you expecting any kind of impact from the loss of a quorum at FERC on the outcome for the ROE transmission complaints numbers two and three?
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Okay. That's the part I missed. Just in terms of – as I said in my remarks, we had expected and we had indicated we may get that decision in 2016. So, without a quorum it's really anybody's guess as to when an order will come out. So, I think impacts would be sort of on a timing basis, but certainly the nature of who fills those seats could be impactful also. So, we'll have to just wait and see, but we're expecting some decision in 2017 on those.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Right. And then, separately, on Access Northeast. I'm sorry, if I missed this. But have you guys discussed like what's the next step there in terms of getting LDCs to contract for it or moving forward?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Mike, this is Lee Olivier. We're having, are having conversations with LDCs. We're have – moving in both (47:54) two states, Massachusetts and New Hampshire, obviously New Hampshire we have appealed at the lower courts, (48:01) the Supreme Court, it's accepted it. There is movement inside of the New Hampshire legislature for a Bill that would allow the PUC to review proposed contracts in the future. And in Massachusetts, there is a really kind of an outreach campaign with key business leaders and legislators (48:28) to understand the impact that a – not having additional gas pipeline capacity will have to the region, to reliability, to cost. And as I mentioned, the ISO New England issued its New England electricity outlook yesterday, which paints a very dim picture. They're also working on an analysis that will be up by mid-year, that will, we believe, specify what will have to take place in New England in order to ensure reliability, which could create significant additional cost for the region as well as creating additional – significant additional emissions, to the region as well by maintaining older oil and coal-fired power plants and/or other sources of electricity to ensure reliability. So, we're working on all of those fronts.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Okay. That means (49:28) so, basically, I mean, are kind of waiting for that report to come out mid-year before any (49:34)?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Yeah. I think, the New Hampshire will move along is in a successful way. I think it's really, once that report comes out, it's really going to be – show the significant impact that New England will face without additional gas pipeline capacity.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Right. And I wonder if you could comment a little bit on the Connecticut Legislation that will allow the contracting of nuclear for clean energy purposes and where do you see that going forward at this point?
James J. Judge - Eversource Energy:
Yeah. This is Jim, Mike. We did file a testimony, provided testimony of that proceeding. I think the fundamental question is one of need. I think if Dominion can show sort of a need for some supplemental revenue stream, it makes it more compelling I think for their argument. But there is already an existing process to follow in the region and that is through the ISO New England process. If they are actually planning on retiring the plant, they could file for that with ISO New England. ISO New England could choose to give them a must-win (50:44) contract going forward. Those costs would be spread around all of New England rather than burdening just the rate payers (50:51) in Connecticut. So, I think, a lot of intervention is occurring in Connecticut in opposition to that, and we'll have to monitor it closely.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
All right, great. Thank you very much.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
All right. Thanks, Mike. Our next question is from Julien Dumoulin-Smith. Good morning, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Hey. Good morning, Jim. So, perhaps just to follow-up a little bit on what Mike was getting at a second ago. Can you elaborate a little bit with regards to Access Northeast? Is it possible to get just gas LDCs to make this project work? Or to what extent ultimately are you dependent upon getting success in Massachusetts one way or another to get this project on (51:29)? And then perhaps a third piece here is, is there a point in time at which you kind of say this is a go-no-go on the project and/or pursue a new strategy like, say, file at ISO New England with a tariff approach, for instance?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Yeah. Julien, this is Lee. Your first question was, can you make it work with just the LDCs? The answer to that is no. We cannot make it work with just LDC load. There's not enough LDC load to do that. So, that will not work in itself (52:03). The second one is that we are – you really do need Massachusetts. Massachusetts makes up about 42% of the load share in the region and you have the other states that clearly – that you don't want to see Massachusetts create a free-rider situation, so you really have to have Massachusetts play. And it's obviously in their best interest to do that. And your last question about an option which is talking at (52:33) tariff at ISO New England and having FERC approve that. That is an option that we are also looking at as well. If you recall, the original option that NESCOE came up with several years ago was to use that methodology and then as a result of our consultations with the then FERC Commission and staff basically said it would be cleaner if it was done inside of the state, which we still think that is true. However, that is an option that we are looking at now.
James J. Judge - Eversource Energy:
Yeah. Julien, just if I could add in terms of the commitment, this report, I guess, that came out of ISO this week, the ISO CEO says that he is concerned about keeping lights on in the coming winters. So, that creates a great degree of concern here. And at Eversource, we remain committed to the project. Also, if you look at what Spectra is saying in terms of its commitment, I think, their earnings release emphasized the commitments to pursue a viable commercial model here to resolve the issue and the need that exists in New England. Clearly, this is the last standing project, if you will, and it's the least, I think, onerous in terms of it being a brownfield project. So, we continue to remain optimistic. As Lee indicated, there's actually a couple of potential paths to success here, and we're actively looking at all of them.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Got it. But just to be clear about it, for Massachusetts to be committed to the project vis-à-vis the rest of the region, that will be more than just an LDC commitment?
James J. Judge - Eversource Energy:
Yes. That's correct. And then you, essentially you need EDC load to make this thing work at Massachusetts. We have to be committed to pay its load share percentage of that.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Got it. Excellent. Moving on to Northern Pass quickly, can you describe a little bit the latest on the potential cost dynamic with further undergrounding? As I understand it, I suppose this is still on the table in terms of a conditional approval under the SEC (54:42). Can you describe a little bit, if you move to full undergrounding of all proposed elements, just how much of a swing factor we're talking about in terms of the cost, just to give us some sense of magnitude? And then to that point, how confident are you in having Hydro-Quebec (54:59) committed to the project to the extent to which that there are indeed (55:03) further required undergrounding as part of any conditional approval from the FOP (55:06)?
James J. Judge - Eversource Energy:
Yeah. I would just say, Julien, we're not anticipating any significant increase in undergrounding. Clearly, we believe that if you underground the entire route, the project is not viable when you do that, when you add in the additional cost. So, we're not really pricing that out. I mean that'd be $2 billion plus project. It's not needed. We think there is growing support in New Hampshire for the project. Certainly, we have a new Governor that has voiced that support. We've been very successful in the challenges that we received against the project and the litigation. So, we're not anticipating significantly more undergrounding on that project. In terms of the price, the cost of the project, we have still maintained approximately $1.6 million. Anything above and beyond that would be confidentially retained because again we will bid this (56:09) project into the RFP.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Got it. Thank you all, very much.
James J. Judge - Eversource Energy:
You're welcome.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thanks, Julien. Our next question is from Greg Gordon from Evercore ISI. Good morning, Greg.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Hey. Good morning, guys. Again, I would like to also reiterate the really thorough update, so thank you. Looking at slide 25, it looks like if I just do a simple algebra, the rate base growth forecast, including Northern Pass but excluding any Access Northeast or Bay State Wind capital, it is about a 6% rate base CAGR, which assuming that you can continue to earn consistent returns, and you're not issuing equity, which you said you're not, which you smack in the middle of the guidance range. Is that kind of the message you're trying to deliver over here?
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
So, Greg, you were a little faint, but you're basically saying that the rate base CAGR is about 6% per year over the forecast period which supports the growth rate. Is that – and you're asking is that (57:10)?
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Right. I mean it seems like very straightforward message, right? 6% rate base growth, no equity issuance on consistent returns, that would put you right in the middle of your earnings growth target based on this rate base growth forecast, right?
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Yeah. We're not saying specifically what point would be in the range, Greg. But certainly 5% to 7% we're very comfortable with. The capital plan and what you've picked up in terms of the rate base certainly supports that. I also mentioned that we still have some run room in terms of cost savings, too. So, those would be the two drivers to be in that range.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Fantastic. And then, at this juncture just given the time horizon it would take to get resolution on a theoretical yes decision on Access Northeast, at this point, would the capital spend sort of theoretically not really start to impact your ability to generate earnings until like the back end of this plan or maybe even into the 2020 type, 2021 type timeframe? Or do you actually think that there is a scenario where you could be in a go position to build that pipeline where it would have a tangible earnings impact inside this five year plan?
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Greg, this is Phil. I think in Lee's remarks he talked about not being in the front end of that process but more in the back end in terms of Access Northeast. So, I would say, your first assumption was accurate in terms of that would be sort of at the backend of the forecast that we provided.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Great. Your comments on tax, Phil, makes sense to me, just the federal income tax exposure, but I just want to be clear. They did or did not encompass what might happen if you had increase in bonus depreciation to 100%?
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Yeah. I don't' think I commented on that and they're (59:10) correct.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Okay, fine.
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
But certainly, as you know, there's many options out there and some of these options would affect everybody in the industry. And then, there's some who have more of a T&D profile like us, where there's not much exposure. So, I did not cover that correct.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Okay. Last question is for Jim. Do you think that Patriots are going to trade Garoppolo, and if they do are they going to let them stay in the AFC East?
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
The Jets.
James J. Judge - Eversource Energy:
Probably for The Jets, it'd be the worst decision The Jets have made.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
I think there's been a lot of bad decisions. So, that's going to be inevitably tough at the top. But thanks, guys.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
All right. Thanks, Greg. Next question is from Chris Ellinghaus from Williams Capital. Good morning, Chris.
Christopher R. Ellinghaus - The Williams Capital Group LP:
Hey. Good morning, guys. How are you?
James J. Judge - Eversource Energy:
Hi, Chris.
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Good.
Christopher R. Ellinghaus - The Williams Capital Group LP:
Phil, can you just describe the weather for the fourth quarter. Was it close enough to normal that you didn't feel a material impact?
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
For the quarter?
Christopher R. Ellinghaus - The Williams Capital Group LP:
Yeah.
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Well, actually, for the quarter, it was beneficial. It was kind of down from normal slightly. But it was up from the previous year but it was close to normal, but probably even a little bit below when you look at the heating degree days.
Christopher R. Ellinghaus - The Williams Capital Group LP:
Yeah. I meant, in terms of normal.
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Yeah. Yeah, so below.
Christopher R. Ellinghaus - The Williams Capital Group LP:
Okay. And Lee, with all of the sort of action in New England vis-à-vis Access Northeast and the gas contracting question. I mean, New Hampshire Legislation, ISO statement, and you were talking about sort of having an outreach with Massachusetts legislators. Does this maybe gives a momentum for Massachusetts to consider some legislation?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
I think the more education, that's a result they're on this issue creates an impetus. But clearly, I think the ISO New England action and their analysis that they're working on now will make a significant difference because the outcome of that analysis is going to say that the status quo we believe will say it's not acceptable. And if it's not acceptable, and if you want to ensure reliability, here's what you have to do and it's going to be expensive and it's going to create more emissions. So, for the folks that don't like gas and they want to see lower emissions, their outcome will create more emissions and that's what this – we believe this report will say. And if the state and the region wants to meet its goals of this 80% carbon reduction by 2050, you must have natural gas to back up renewable, and to ensure reliability and to ensure that the region stays competitive, and I believe that that report will state that clearly.
Christopher R. Ellinghaus - The Williams Capital Group LP:
Okay. And Phil, looking at O&M for the year, even adjusting for some of the unusual one-time 2015 sort of regulatory benefit, it looks like the reduction was a little bit less than sort of your targeted expectations. Can you just talk about what challenges there might have been in 2016, versus your sort of going forward expectations?
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Yeah. I think that, so it's pretty close in that range, Chris. But we had a significant level of storms during the year. So I'd say, when you ask what were some of the O&M challenges for the year, we had probably twice the level of storm activity in the region than we've had in past years, and that put some pressure on our response. People working overtime, having to travel, those type of things. So I'd say, if we had a more normal weather year, you'd see a lot lower O&M, and you'd probably also see some better, higher statistics too, in terms of outages because bad weather, and distressed trees cause limbs to fall and outages to occur. So I'd say that, that would be one of the items.
Christopher R. Ellinghaus - The Williams Capital Group LP:
Okay. Great. Thanks for the color, guys.
James J. Judge - Eversource Energy:
All right. Thank you.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thanks, Chris. Our next question is from Travis Miller from Morningstar. Good morning, Travis.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Good morning. Thank you. Just wondering about 2020, the transmission spend, that $283 million, is that more along the lines of a normalized run rate number kind of?
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
No. I think that in any of our forecast, the out years gives maybe a little bit less clarity in terms of specific projects, Travis. But as we move through that forecast period, there'll be projects that are identified. I think, you probably know our history that until something is pretty clean line of sight, it won't get into the forecast. That's why we're so confident in it. So it'd say, it's more a case of to be determined some of those projects in that last year.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Okay. So like a building blocks, so you started the $283 million, and then add on, say, Bay State and add on (01:04:48)?
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Yeah. I think if I were to reconcile past forecast, that would exactly what would have been the case, correct.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Okay. And then what's the status right now in terms of the carbon goals for the region, the RPS in the states, where do you guys stand, on track, ahead, behind, now give me a sense for where you guys have been there.
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Each state is a little bit different. Connecticut, really as a result of the kind of the major transmission build out we did there over the last 10 years, and the retirement of a lot of the older oil and coal-fired power plants and the lack of uplift, their carbon has come down fairly dramatically. They're just about on target for their 2027 numbers. Massachusetts has more of a gap particularly as you have the retirements of Pilgrim which is coming up in 2019. So they have a lot more work to do, which is one of the reasons why the governor has sponsored the April RFP for large hydro and renewable, and of course is the June RFP for potentially up to 1,600 megawatts of offshore wind. So he and they understand this, and they're moving along rapidly to try to resolve this. And when you look at the other states, Maine's goal is so low to begin with. It's like about 8% there. They're pretty much there. New Hampshire is very close to theirs in Rhode Island (01:06:36). So Massachusetts will be the outlier for the 2027 (01:06:41). But then all of them would have to make significant cuts to get to the 2050 80% reduction goal.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Okay. Great. I appreciate it.
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Yeah.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Thanks, Travis. I appreciate it. Next question is from Praful Mehta from Citi. Good morning, Praful.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Good morning. Hi, guys. So quick question on the tax reform part, and wanted to understand from an offshore wind perspective, do the economics of offshore wind gets impacted by the tax reform, and how are you looking at other potential non-regulated investments in the renewables side and implications of that with the tax reform?
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
No. We don't expect that at this stage, Praful. No impact.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Got you. And just so I understand, why is that, because wouldn't that be a part of the economics of how you're looking at the project?
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Well, it depends on what it is that you're – what comes out of the outcome there.
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Yeah. And we have included in our analysis, Praful, no ITC or production tax credits associated with the project. And just based on the high capacity factors, the fairly significant and continuous drop in cost, we think it will be very competitive. And as I said earlier, the beauty of this (01:08:09). You're not going to have to wait eight years and nine years to build a transmission project through three states. And so this has tremendous amount of benefits.
James J. Judge - Eversource Energy:
Hey, Praful, whether it's a solo investment that we have underway or the offshore wind investments at Bay State Wind or the Northern Pass line or we've actually announced electric vehicle infrastructure and battery storage pilots here in Massachusetts, I guess all of them would benefit from a lower tax rate, and that the effect of cost-to-capital initiatives (01:08:42) would be lower.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Got you. But from a project perspective, the IRRs of – again, the non-regulated side, IRRs like the offshore wind, you don't expect much impact given you're not really incorporating the tax benefits. Is that a fair way to think of it?
James J. Judge - Eversource Energy:
That's right. Yes.
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
That's right.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
All right. And then, on the Access Northeast, we understood and get all the – the Q&A has been helpful, but just to understand, if it doesn't go through, and if you do reach the point where from a go/no-go perspective reach the no-go, what you have in terms of other backup plans, in terms of CapEx spend, or what else do you think would be kind of helping support the growth story if Access Northeast weren't to play out?
James J. Judge - Eversource Energy:
We update our forecast every year, and I think it's still indicated between 2017 to 2019, we have increased our CapEx by $1 billion compared to where we were just a year ago. So as we go forward in time, more opportunities will appear for us. We don't anticipate Access Northeast being cancelled, but each year we seem to have more insight into capital needs of the system. And my expectation is that there'll be further projects for us to pursue.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Got you. Thank you guys (01:10:02).
James J. Judge - Eversource Energy:
All right.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Thanks, Praful. Next question is from Paul Patterson from Glenrock. Good morning, Paul.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Good morning. How are you?
James J. Judge - Eversource Energy:
All right. How are you?
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
All right. So I apologize if I missed this, but the border adjustment tax, how would that Northern Pass, with a proposal for border adjustment tax if you follow me (01:10:21)?
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Yeah. I think, some of the things that we've seen or I've seen, energy is not – it could be something, our energy and infrastructure is something that would not be impacted by that. If you're looking at materials and procurement and things like that, most of our – the highest preponderance, or the majority of the materials that we purchase are domestic materials. So from that standpoint, Paul, not much.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. Just so I (01:10:57) understand, your understanding is that the boarder adjustment tax would not apply to things like electric power or natural gas or something like that. Is my understanding correct?
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Yeah. I think, that is a proposal. That has been discussed as that not being applicable to that, correct.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. And then, do we have a firm position from ISO New England whether or not Northern Pass would be (01:11:22-01:11:27)?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
That's still in discussion right now. So there is no firm decision, and there won't be one until Hydro-Quebec would basically provide their indication that they will bid into the full (01:11:39) capacity auction. So that's what it takes to trigger that review.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
And so when will we get an idea, when will that be, I guess? When would that ( 01:11:50)?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Well, that would be, obviously for the next function (01:11:51) and there is a letter that you have to trigger, and I can't remember exactly how many months notice you have to give if you're going to participate in that (01:12:02). But it could be triggered at that point in time.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. And that will FCA12, we would get an idea. You expect that Hydro-Quebec would want to participate in FCA12 as things stand.
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
I wouldn't speculate what they would want to do on that. I wouldn't speculate for them.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. And then, in New Hampshire, you guys have $128 million (01:12:25) for the gas, among other things as you have. And you're also appealing things to the Supreme Court. What do you think – I guess – it wasn't really clear, I guess, in Massachusetts, if you have legislation. If you do have legislation, could you tell me what the number is on that?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
No, Massachusetts, Paul, we don't have legislation at this point in time. This is kind of a period of education influencing and anticipating the ISO New England study as well.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. And then, just finally, there was an article, a couple of articles in the local press about one out of four, about 25% of Connecticut customers being behind in their bills, electric bills. And I was wondering, is there any weather issue or fuel, or is there something unusual about that? Is that a normal number? And just, in general, how should we think about what the implications of something like that are?
Phil Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Yeah. I'm not familiar with the specific article. But we certainly have a lot of focus on our credit strategies we've implemented to the extent allowed under the regulatory mechanisms recovery and reporting mechanisms to collect. So there's nothing kind of unusual in Connecticut. I think, it's a matter of sometimes folks get behind in their bills, whether it be for a number of reasons. But there's nothing in particular that's going on there, Paul.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Thanks, Paul. Next question is from Michael Lapides from Goldman. Good morning, Michael.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Good morning, guys. Question, and this one's probably for Lee and apologize for making you use your voice today. [Technical Difficulty] (01:14:29) quickly. The economics of offshore wind, can you give some high-level differences? Like we're pretty familiar in terms of the economic launch or wins, CapEx in the $1,700 to $2,000 a KW range, and transmission line miles, if it's above ground, couple million bucks per mile or so. Can you talk about what the economics similar kind of indicators are for offshore wind? And if the numbers are more expensive, how different of a capacity factor would a typical or generic offshore wind plant likely get?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Yeah. Just to say, I wouldn't speculate at this point on the U.S. numbers because I'm sure you've looked up the European numbers, and they're all in now below $0.10 per kilowatt hour, and that's well known information of the most recent solicitations that have been done in Europe, off of Germany and Netherlands and so forth. And that includes the transmission as well and there's a few out there without transmission (01:15:41). And the real issue is they have a European supply chain that is there between Siemens (01:15:48) and the folks that make the towers and so forth. And the real question is, how much of that are – it's not a question of how much, but how soon can you get that kind of supply chain over to the U.S. As I've stated earlier, if you look out where this offshore wind would be interconnected from these leases, the bond leases, once you land it onshore, the transmission grid in those areas has significant excess capacity as a result of retirement of Brayton Point and Pilgrim. So that cost will not have to be added to (01:16:31). So we see this being very competitive. We, our partners, they'll see the costs coming down. Obviously, they have the largest Pilgrim (01:16:43) offshore wind in the world. They have very good positions in the various manufacturing queues (01:16:48). And we think that the interest in offshore wind, it will spread beyond Massachusetts. Already, the Governor of Rhode Island sees it as a big part of their future, energy future. We think that's going to spread throughout New England.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. And when you think about the balance of needing more gas, but having offshore wind that runs heavily in the first and fourth quarter. Then the addition of a significant amount of offshore wind in New England kind of partially or significantly offset the need for incremental natural gas during winter peak.
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Yeah. I think from where we are now in terms of the shortfall of gas, and when you factor in another whatever 6,000 or 7,000 megawatts of retirements of the older units, you got to have gas. And if you talk to ISO New England, whether it's good, they always try the same thing. On a winter's day, 04:00 PM, when there's no solar, and on the polar vortex not even be much wind because wind drops significantly in a polar vortex, their job is to keep the lights on, which means you're going to have to have gas in that particular scenario. So I don't think they see any way that you can maintain reliability, take the volatility out of the region without having a gas supply into the region.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. Thank you, Lee. Much appreciate it.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
All right. Thank you, Michael. I know we've kept you guys for a while today. We really appreciate your time. If you got any follow-up questions, please give us a call. It looks like maybe we've already moved on to the next earnings call. So we will talk to you soon. Thank you and have a good day.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating and you may now disconnect.
Executives:
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy Philip J. Lembo - Eversource Energy Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy
Analysts:
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker) Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research) Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC Caroline V. Bone - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC Michael Gaugler - Janney Montgomery Scott LLC
Operator:
Welcome to the Eversource Energy Third Quarter Earnings Call. My name is Hilda, and I will be your operator for today. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Jeffrey Kotkin. Sir, you may begin.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thank you, Hilda. Good morning and thank you for joining us today. I'm Jeff Kotkin, Eversource Energy's Vice President for Investor Relations. As you can see on slide 1, some of the statements made during this investor call may be forward-looking, as defined within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risk and uncertainty, which may cause the actual results to differ materially from forecasts and projections. Some of these factors are set forth in the news release issued yesterday. Additional information about the various factors that may cause actual results to differ can be found in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2015 and our Form 10-Q for the period ended June 30, 2016. Additionally, our explanation of how and why we use certain non-GAAP measures is contained within our news release and the slides we posted last night on our website under Presentations & Webcasts and in our most recent 10-K. Turning to slide 2. Speaking today will be Phil Lembo, our Executive Vice President, CFO and Treasurer; and Lee Olivier, our Executive Vice President for Enterprise Energy Strategy & Business Development. Also joining us today are Werner Schweiger, our Executive Vice President and COO; Jay Buth, our Vice President and Controller; and John Moreira, our Vice President of Financial Planning and Analysis. Now, I will turn to slide 3 and turn over the call to Phil.
Philip J. Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Thank you, Jeff, and thank you all for joining us this morning. Today, I'll cover our third quarter and year-to-date financial results, provide an update on certain transmission projects and discuss recent legislative and regulatory developments in the three states. So let's start with the quarter on slide 4. We earned $265.3 million or $0.83 per share in the third quarter of 2016, compared with earnings of $235.9 million or $0.74 per share in the third quarter of 2015. Our Transmission segment earned $0.28 per share in the third quarter of 2016, compared with $0.24 per share in the third quarter last year. The primary driver of the earnings growth is a higher transmission rate base, which is due to our continued needed investment in the reliability of the New England power grid. I'll summarize some of our key reliability-driven transmission projects in a minute. On the Electric Distribution and Generation side, we earned $0.53 per share in the third quarter of 2016, which is the same number as the third quarter of 2015. High distribution revenues were largely offset by higher depreciation, property taxes and interest costs. On the Natural Gas side, we lost $0.02 per share in the third quarter of 2016, compared to a loss of $0.01 per share in the third quarter of last year. Higher interest and taxes more than offset the benefits of a rate increase at NSTAR Gas and the increased revenues from our natural gas infrastructure tracking mechanisms. Turning from the third quarter to the year-to-date results, we earned $713.1 million or $2.24 per share in the first nine months of 2016, compared with earnings of $696.7 million or $2.19 per share in the first nine months of 2015. In our earnings press release, we reiterated both our 5% to 7% long-term growth rate and our 2016 earnings projection of $2.90 to $3.05 per share. At this time, we expect to finish 2016 somewhere in the middle of that range. Transmission earnings totaled $0.84 per share in the first nine months of 2016, compared to earnings of $0.70 per share in the first nine months of last year. In addition to a larger rate base, the 2016 period benefited from the absence of a $0.04 charge we recorded in the first quarter of 2015 to a Federal Energy Regulatory Commission decision on the first complaint against the returns on equity earned by the New England transmission owners. Our Electric Distribution and Generation segment earned $1.20 per share in the first nine months of 2016, compared with earnings of $1.32 per share for the same period last year. The decline was primarily due to the absence of a $0.09 per share total of benefits we recognized in the first quarter of 2015, as a result of resolving multiple regulatory proceedings involving NSTAR Electric. Additionally, higher depreciation and property taxes resulting from our ongoing investment in our distribution system reduced year-to-date earnings by $0.05 per share. Our Natural Gas Distribution segment earned $0.16 per share in the first nine months of 2016, compared with earnings of $0.18 per share for the same period last year. The milder first quarter weather this year with significantly reduced natural gas sales were partially offset by rate increases at NSTAR Gas and continued customer growth. O&M continues to be a very good story this year, as our employees continue to provide excellent reliability for our customers while also reducing costs. Lower O&M has added $0.07 per share to earnings so far this year, if we exclude the $0.05 on benefits we recorded in the first quarter of 2015 when we successfully resolved the bad debt dispute in Massachusetts. Turning from our financial results to operations. Our transmission investments totaled approximately $559 million in the first nine months of 2016, and we continue to target transmission capital investments of about $910 million for the full year. As you can see on slide give, we continue to move ahead on our major transmission reliability projects across the system. We are making solid progress on our two large families of reliability projects, the Greater Boston Reliability Solutions and the Greater Hartford Central Connecticut Solutions. Last month we announced that we had received approval of the Merrimack Valley Reliability Project, a nearly $125 million transmission project in New Hampshire and Massachusetts, which we and National Grid are building. To date, we've invested $91 million in the approximately $565 million set of Greater Boston Solutions. We expect to conclude the final Greater Boston work in 2019. As we've done in past years, we expect to provide you with our 2017 earnings guidance and our four-year capital expenditure projections during our year-end earnings call in February. I'll just cover one area now. During our July earnings call, we discussed the impact of a nine-month extension of the state review of Northern Pass on our 2017 capital budget, and we indicated that other projects were being identified to offset about $600 million reduction in projected Northern Pass CapEx in 2017. In July, we noted an additional $200 million in transmission reliability projects, about $200 million of solar projects in Massachusetts, and $30 million to $50 million of additional investments in our Natural Gas Distribution segment. Since then, we've identified about $50 million of additional transmission reliability projects above the original $200 million, and as we move through our 2017 budget process, that could go higher. We'll continue to evaluate additional opportunities as we move through the next few months and give a complete update during our year-end earnings call. I also want to touch on capital expenditures in our Natural Gas Distribution segment. We've invested $180 million in that segment through the first nine months of 2016, up approximately 35% from the same period last year. This increase primarily represents an acceleration of cast iron and bare steel pipe replacement in both Massachusetts and Connecticut, an increased level of work this year in our Hopkinton LNG facility where we are undertaking a $200 million upgrade, and increased expansion activity at Yankee Gas. Now, I'll turn to slide six and recent developments involving the legislative and regulatory bodies in Massachusetts and New Hampshire. On August 8, Governor Baker signed in Massachusetts, signed An Act to Promote Energy Diversity. The bill requires the state to contract for 1,600 megawatts of offshore wind over the next 11 years in solicitations of at least 400 megawatts a piece. Subsequently, Governor Baker announced that several firms have acquired federal leases to attractive offshore wind sites that are 25 to 50 miles south of Cape Cod, and also agreed to lease a location in New Bedford, Massachusetts for staging their construction activities. Massachusetts is clearly positioning itself to be a national leader in offshore wind development. We look forward to supporting that effort and believe there will be considerable opportunities for Eversource to build transmission over the coming decade to connect that offshore wind to the electric load. The Act also calls for Massachusetts electric companies to commence competitive solicitations by April 2017 for nearly 9,500 gigawatt hours of additional clean energy annually. Again, we look forward to working with our policymakers on helping to provide the transmission links that will bring that clean energy to Massachusetts' consumers. As you are likely aware, the three-state clean energy RFP was conducted this year by Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island. That concluded last week with selections focused on small-scale renewables and, as a result, neither Northern Pass nor Clean Energy Connect was selected. The states chose only 460 megawatts of Class I renewables, about two-thirds of that solar and one-third wind. Our two bids included hydroelectric generation that did not strictly meet the Class I criteria in the RFP. We're focusing our efforts on the next round of contracting that is immediately around the corner. That involves solicitations for the nearly 9,500 gigawatt hours where the Massachusetts legislation explicitly allows large hydroelectric sources to participate. We believe that both Northern Pass and Clean Energy Connect would be excellent candidates for these next solicitations due to their potentially significant impact on lowering carbon emissions. Northern Pass alone would reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 3.3 million tons a year, the equivalent of taking about 690,000 cars off the road. It may make Massachusetts' roads safer too, I don't know. Switching from the regulatory slide, in slide 7, hearings begin tomorrow actually on our proposal to build up to 62 megawatts of solar generation in Massachusetts at a cost of about $200 million. Under legislation passed in April of this year, each Massachusetts electric utility is allowed to own and operate up to 35 megawatts of solar. Western Mass Electric already has 8 megawatts of solar under a prior authorization. So we can add an additional 27 megawatts. NSTAR Electric has none, so we could build 35 megawatts. A DPU decision is due by the end of this year, with construction targeted for completion by the end of next year. In New Hampshire, the state approved JPMorgan as the auction advisor for the divestiture of our 1200 megawatts of regulated generation. JPMorgan has submitted a proposal for conducting the auction, which the New Hampshire Public Utility Commission is now considering. That proposal calls for active marketing to take place in early 2017. We are targeting the second half of 2017 for completing the divestiture process. You recall that the New Hampshire legislation enables the recovery of all of our planned investment either through the sale proceeds or through securitization. Turning to slide 8. You can see the current status of the various return-on-equity complaints before the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission related to transmission investment in New England. The latest development involves the fourth complaint on September 20. The FERC accepted the complaint and subsequently assigned a settlement judge to the case. If we do not settle, FERC expects that an order in the complaint would be issued in mid-2018. We continue to record earnings based on our original October 2014 decision in the first complaint, even though that case remains on appeal before the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals, where oral arguments have been scheduled for December 6. We look forward to seeing many of you who are on this call at the EEI Financial Conference. And now I'll turn it over to Lee.
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Okay. Thanks, Phil. I'll provide you with a brief update on our major investment initiatives and then turn the call back to Jeff for Q&As. Let's start with Northern Pass in slide 10. There's been a number of developments involving Northern Pass since our late July earnings call. On October 14, the New Hampshire Public Utility Commission issued an order authorizing Northern Pass to do business as a New Hampshire utility. In reaching its decision, the commission approved a settlement agreement between Northern Pass and the PUC staff that determined that Northern Pass had the technical, managerial and financial expertise to operate as a public utility. The PUC further concluded that "granting Northern Pass authority to commence business as a public utility is for the public good". We're pleased to have received this important foundational ruling. In September and October, the New Hampshire Site Evaluation Committee or SEC held more than 20 days of hearings or technical sessions on the project, which featured 10 panels of witnesses on topics that included system stability, reliability, project construction and historical resources. The sessions allowed interveners to question our witnesses on all aspects of the project based on testimony that was submitted as part of the SEC application last fall. We are very pleased with how well these sessions went overall. They were an excellent opportunity for us to demonstrate the thoughtful planning, design and engineering that we have already devoted to this project, and to underscore the significant economic and environmental benefits Northern Pass will provide to the region. The next key milestone is the submission of intervener testimony in mid-November. Reports from the state agencies that are reviewing the project are due to the Site Evaluation Committee by March 1, and we anticipate the final committee hearings starting in April of next year. A final written decision is expected by September 30 of 2017. If the committee issues a written order approving the 192-mile New Hampshire section of Northern Pass in September of 2017, we would expect to receive our U.S. Department of Energy approval by the end of 2017. Based on that schedule, we should be in the position to construct the project during the 2018 and 2019 timeframe, as indicated on slide 11. From Northern Pass, let's turn to Access Northeast on slide 12. On the state regulatory level, we've had a number of developments over the past few months, as you can see on slide 13. The most important developments occurred in mid-August when Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court ruled that, under current state law, the Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities cannot approve natural gas transmission contracts signed by electric distribution companies. As a result of that court decision, the Massachusetts electric distribution companies requested that they be allowed to withdraw the contracts between Access Northeast and Eversource's Massachusetts electric utilities and National Grid. That request was accepted by the DPU last month. So there is no contract currently pending before the DPU related to Access Northeast. In New Hampshire, the PUC ruled on October 6 that under current state law it does not have the authority to approve natural gas capacity contracts for electric distribution companies. The ruling reversed a PUC staff finding issued a year ago and was disappointing to us. In its order, the commission cited similar reasoning to the Massachusetts court decision and even cited that decision in a footnote. Requesting reconsideration from the commission would be required before an appeal. The New Hampshire Supreme Court could be considered by Eversource New Hampshire. There have also been developments in other states since our late July earnings call. In Connecticut, the state Department of Energy and Protection, or DEP, last week canceled a natural gas RFP it issued in June, noting developments in other states. It noted that it will continue to monitor the market and activities outside Connecticut and could reinitiate an RFP anytime. In Maine, a written order was issued last month affirming the PUC's July 19 vote to endorse a contract with Access Northeast, assuming the states of Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island move ahead as well. In Rhode Island, National Grid filed with state regulators a long-term contract for Access Northeast capacity on June 30. In September, the Rhode Island PUC placed a stay on the docket and requested an update from National Grid in mid-January. We believe that PUC's action was appropriate given the uncertainty in Massachusetts. Given the current status of the state regulatory proceedings, we're reviewing the changes we may need to make and the project's configuration to serve both EDCs and LDC loads. As a result, we believe the construction is not likely to commence until the spring or summer of 2019, which would represent a 9-month to 12-month change from our previous estimate. One fact that hasn't changed is the need for Access Northeast. Access Northeast is designed to address a critical problem we have in New England during the winter months; the lack of access to enough natural gas to both heat our homes and businesses and run our power plants. Access Northeast is uniquely positioned to address this problem, since it passes through Connecticut and Eastern Massachusetts, the two most densely populated parts of New England, and touches 60% of the region's gas-fired power generation. Slide 14 shows you the current natural gas supply situation in New England. Pipelines that reach us from the west, through New York, Pennsylvania, and Ontario, currently can deliver up to 3 billion cubic feet of gas per day on cold winter days. However, the region's LDC loads alone can exceed 4 billion cubic feet per day. The difference is bridged by vaporizing stored LNG and by plants switching to oil and increasing their carbon output. Exacerbating this issue is the decline of the Eastern Canadian offshore natural gas production, which is likely to continue further diminishing supplies for natural gas to the region. Slide 15 shows what is happening with our region's generation fleet. New England has more than 15,000 megawatts of generation where natural gas is the primary fuel. Only about a third of that generation is dual-fueled. The other 10,000-plus megawatts only burn natural gas. And you can see virtually none of the generation has firm natural gas supplies. Our situation will only get worse as Breaking Point, Pilgrim and other non-natural gas units retire over the course of the next two-and-a-half years are replaced by gas burning units. ISO-New England is calling that situation precarious. We believe there are very real concerns around reliability and significant additional sources of natural gas can be brought into New England. Earlier, Phil discussed the results of three-state clean energy RFP. The projects selected for contract negotiations in the RFP will add some Class 1 renewable resources, but will do very little to address these natural gas capacity issues, which are most acute during the cold winter months. And reliability is just one issue. You can see the price differential that existed in New England two winters ago on slide 16. Wholesale power prices were about three times higher during the winter than they were during the previous summer, costs that customers ultimately pay. In a normal year, the price differential is about $1 billion. In a cold winter, it's significantly more. Ultimately, we firmly believe that the region's need for additional pipeline capacity to the west and Access Northeast's unique attributes will result in our project moving forward. We and our partners, Spectra Energy and National Grid, remain committed to the project and the $1 billion a year in benefits it can bring to New England customers. The two paths in the Massachusetts that we had identified involve contracting with the state's natural gas distribution companies, fall capacity and seeking new enabling legislation. Regarding the legislative option, the Massachusetts legislature will reconvene in early 2017. So, a new statute similar to laws that have been passed in recent years in Connecticut, Rhode Island and Maine could be voted on by mid-2017. At a recent meeting of the Coalition of Northeastern Governors, Massachusetts' Governor Baker expressed his explicit support for additional natural gas supplies for the state and we believe there is significant support in the state to increase access of additional gas supplies. But we understand that there would be opposition to such legislation from various stakeholder interests, as they were in Connecticut before a similar law was passed there. In regards to natural gas distribution company option, I would remind you that the Kinder Morgan's Northeast Energy Direct project had signed several gas capacity contracts, primarily with Massachusetts and New Hampshire gas distribution companies, before Kinder canceled the project earlier this year. We are currently exploring whether Access Northeast can help meet the growing long-term gas needs of these distribution companies. There is no question that both the regions' electric and natural gas consumers need the additional pipeline capacity Access Northeast can provide. And that siting a project on an existing right-of-way and in an existing LNG storage site is by far the most attractive option. Now, I'm going to turn the call back to Jeff.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thank you, Lee. And I'm going to turn the call back to Hilda just to remind you how to enter questions. Hilda?
Operator:
Thank you.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
All right. Our first question this morning is from Mike Weinstein from Credit Suisse. Good morning, Mike.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Hey. Good morning, guys. Thanks, Lee. Hey. For Access Northeast, would changes to serve LDCs allow the project to proceed without the need for any additional legislation?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Mike, this is Lee. It would really depend on the scope, in other words, the scale of those contracts that could be obtained. You have the Kinder project signed up nearly 500,000 dekatherms, 0.5 Bcf, with contracts that had been approved by their respective regulators in, essentially, Massachusetts and New Hampshire. So, once you start getting up around 500,000 dekatherms, that makes the project more viable. But we have not made a complete determination on that yet because we still think there is a need for the EDC participation in the other states. So we think there could be a hybrid solution of both LDCs and EDC contracts.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
I guess what I'm thinking is that if it's not reliant on EDC contracts then, if you can get enough LDCs to participate, you wouldn't need any, I guess, special consideration from the Commission where electric customers are supporting the project.
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Yeah. That would be true, but it would likely be a smaller project than the 900,000 dekatherms that we originally outlined.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
And on Clean Energy Connect, I think you mentioned that it now supports hydropower as well. I thought that Energy Connect was mostly from supporting wind power in New York State?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Yes. Clean Energy Connect was the combination of existing Brookfield run-of-the-river hydro facilities; in other words, hydro facilities that are old or mostly depreciated and building of new wind by two other entities, which was Iberdrola and EDP. So you would marry up essentially 600 megawatts of wind, 700 megawatts of hydro, you would have ended up with about a 85% capacity factor over the line with having that run-of-the- river hydro balance it.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Okay. I see. And just back on Access Northeast for a second, if the project begins construction 2019, you're looking at getting it online no earlier than spring of 2020 or late 2020?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
It'd be late 2020.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Late. Okay.
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
In the fall, yeah.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Thank you.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
All right. Thanks, Mike. Next question this morning is from Travis Miller from Morningstar. Good morning, Travis.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Good morning. Thank you. I was wondering, you talked about the winter and the gas demand and stuff. As we go into the season, you talked a lot about the constraints that still are there. What has improved since the last, say, two winters when there were the constraints – or not so much last winter, but two, three winters ago?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
The fundamental improvement for now for this winter would be that the Spectra Energy AIM Project, which delivers about 345,000 dekatherms. The first phase of that came on, on November 1, delivering about 245,000 dekatherms, and then the remainder of that is expected to come on either later this month or in December, which would give you about a total of 345,000 dekatherms. And probably the way to look at that is, if you add AIM in and then you retire Breaking Point, next year they kind of wash each other out.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Okay. Okay. Got it. And then, on the offshore wind stuff, what recognition among regulators is there that this would most likely lead to higher customer prices? Is that something that's being discussed and being considered at a high level, or is this just the run to get renewables into the mix?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
I would just say on that, following what's taken place in Europe, and I think the U.S. will have a major advantage, because Europe, pretty much where most of this development started, was much higher on the cost curve. And they're coming down on the back side of the cost curve. So you've seen cost as high as $0.24, $0.25 a kilowatt hour. Our recent tenders done in Europe and Holland for less than $0.10 per kilowatt hour. So we believe with the economy of scale and the development in places such as in Asia or China, which is starting to take place now in Taiwan, we will see a fairly dramatic decrease. I think the other thing that you have to remember too is that the load centers in New England are on the shoreline. And if you have offshore wind, it's closer to the load. And so therefore, your transmission costs decline significantly. And offshore wind comes on essentially 10 turbines at a time. It doesn't come on like a traditional generator where you spend five years building 1,000 megawatts and one push to the button it all comes on. It's every 8 (31:53) megawatts that comes on. So it rolls in over time. It has a better cost recovery curve as well.
Philip J. Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Yeah. I think also, Travis, there's a recognition that there's a mix of solutions that are needed to meet aggressive carbon reduction targets as well. So you've got a mix of needs in terms of bringing more gas. Wind and solar play a part too. So there's many fronts that need additional supply to come into the region.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Okay. Great. I really appreciate the thoughts.
Philip J. Lembo - Eversource Energy:
All right.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thanks, Travis. Next question is from Paul Patterson from Glenrock. Morning, Paul.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Good morning. I wanted to follow-up on Mike Weinstein's question. If I heard the answer, it sounded to me that there would be a smaller project in the absence of the passage of Massachusetts legislation for Access Northeast. Is that correct?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Yeah. Paul, this is Lee. I think it's too early to determine that because we're still in the process of understanding the LDC load. I can tell you there is strong interest from the governors of the two bigger states that we've talked to recently on having an EDC solution as well. And you've got Maine and Rhode Island that are still in the hunt. We recently met with the Connecticut governing agency and their view is that, need some new solutions, but we fully support gas, bring us back some solutions to consider. So you've got three states that clearly want an EDC solution. And so it's kind of marrying up that with a large enough LDC solution to make for a project that will have a meaningful difference in the region in terms of reliability and price stability and lowering the differential between the region, as an example, MISO and PJM, which is about a 50% differential higher in the winter time. So we're still advocating for a project upscale that can make that difference.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. So, I mean, I guess I misheard the – I thought it sounded like you might be less than 900 (sic) [900,000] (34:27) dekatherms, if it wasn't for the EDC participation in Massachusetts.
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Yeah. Well, the question was that, if it was only LDC, would it be the same size of Access Northeast of 900,000 dekatherms. The answer to that, it was only LDC? No. It would not be.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. And that's only LDC in Massachusetts or is that – I mean, the way it's – let me ask you the question this way. The feeling I got is that, because of the Massachusetts Supreme Court ruling, the other states seem to have – at least some of them seem to have some issues about going ahead with something without Massachusetts fully on board. Is that a correct way of summarizing it or do you see it...
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
I think there needs to be a take of gas and obviously the related revenue requirements with it for Massachusetts. But if you go back and look at the previous contracts that were signed by LDCs in the old Kinder project, majority of those are in Massachusetts. And, of course, gas customers are electric customers as well. So it could be picked up by gas customers. But in essence, the state makes the contribution because gas customers are electric customers.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
I got you. And then Phil made a statement about the renewable RFP where the hydro bids or whatever were not selected, and it sounded like there might have been a technical reason for that. Did I understand that correctly? In other words, it wasn't conforming to – it was an issue of whether or not the bids you guys had proposed did not conform to some specific technical element of it. Is that the reason why it was rejected? Or was there some other issue?
Philip J. Lembo - Eversource Energy:
One aspect, Paul, this is Phil, is sort of subsequent to the RFP going out, Massachusetts passed specific legislation enabling hydro in terms of contracting. So, certainly on the Massachusetts side, the legislation that came in subsequent to the RFP being issued provided us specific authorization. So the timing was, the RFP started, but then the legislation happened. So, now, we have specific legislation, as I indicated, to cover a solicitation for hydro in Massachusetts.
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Yeah. And I would add that, if you look at the statutory authority of the three states, they could have bought up to 5 terawatt hours of energy. And they bought 0.9 terawatt hours. So they bought 17% of what they were authorized to buy. The majority of that energy is in solar. And obviously, on a cold winter day at 4 o'clock, you're not going to get that energy and two-thirds of it is really solar. So they bought small facilities. Nothing like...
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Why is that? Why didn't they buy more?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Well, it's just – you've got three states and they have different needs. As an example, Connecticut, on their carbon goal is doing very good. In other words, they've got a goal by 2020 of 39 million tons a year. They're at 40 million tons now. So they said, hey, look, we'd just rather buy best one in renewables right now. And as Phil said, Massachusetts in that solicitation didn't really have authorization to buy hydro. But now that they will, in April they'd be able to buy a large tranche of hydro, almost 10 terawatt hours. So it's a little bit of the construct and the timing, but that's kind of how it ended up.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. I appreciate it. Thank you very much.
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Yeah.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thanks, Paul. Our next question is from Caroline Bone from Deutsche Bank. Good morning, Caroline.
Caroline V. Bone - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Hey. Good morning, guys. I was just wondering could you just talk about the options you have to offset the impact to earnings from a 9-months to 12-months delay in Access Northeast?
Philip J. Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Yeah. I think that – this is Phil, Caroline. If you look at our growth rate through 2019, there's not a significant amount of Access Northeast in there. So, if you assume that it's still in that time period, you're fairly close just in terms of the spending that, even with the delay, that it would not have a significant impact there. So we've looked, as we did mention with the NPT, if there's other transmission projects, and as you've seen, we found additional reliability projects. We have additional trans investment in our gas infrastructure, the Massachusetts solar program. So there is a number of initiatives that could fill that. But it's not a significant number.
Caroline V. Bone - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. Fair enough. And then with regards to the transmission you guys might get involved with to connect offshore wind in Massachusetts, I know this is kind of far down the road here, but can you discuss how cost recovery would likely work?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
How cost recovery would likely work? That whole framework is still being worked out, being discussed and flexed. There's really no specifics. There's couple of notions, one that the state could do kind of a broad RFP for a transmission highway that would interconnect the six parcels of water back into the mainland and folks would bid on that. There could be one or multiple winners on that for design kind of EPC construction. And the other one is basically that each developer, which is pretty consistent with what takes place currently in Europe, each developer bids their project and they bid whatever, 400 megawatts, 600 megawatts, 800 megawatts, whatever the bid is in terms of megawatts, they build their own offshore substations and they build the cables that run into the mainland and interconnect into the existing transmission system. Which really means all that would be onshore would be a substation and an interconnection to the 345 kV grid. So it's not really been determined exactly how that will work, but that is a topic of discussion that is taking place inside of the Commonwealth.
Caroline V. Bone - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. And then, just one final one on a different topic. I know we have kind of the NSTAR Electric rate case finally on the horizon. Can you just remind us how much rate base is currently at NSTAR Electric distribution specifically?
Philip J. Lembo - Eversource Energy:
Yeah. Yeah. 2.7, 2.8; in that range.
Caroline V. Bone - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. Great. That's it. Thanks, guys.
Philip J. Lembo - Eversource Energy:
All right.
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Thank you.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thank you, Caroline. Next question is from Shar Pourreza from Guggenheim. Good morning, Shar.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Hey, guys. Sorry, I had to hop in late and I apologize if this was addressed. Lee, let me ask you. So, in Access Northeast, it sounds like a solution could be EDCs for states like Vermont, Rhode Island, Connecticut, and LDC demand in Massachusetts. Would the Clean Energy – I'm sorry, the Kinder project that was canceled, the Northeast Direct, it sounds like out of 1 Bcf per day for Access Northeast, you could generally account for Massachusetts just by the customers that were signed up for the Kinder pipe.
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Yeah. There is a potential to get very close to that. So Massachusetts created a 42% hole in the project when they couldn't sign contracts. That's about 400,000 dekatherms or so. And there's a fairly large LDC demand in Massachusetts as well. So it could come pretty close to that.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
How is the dialogue going with the offtakers of the canceled pipe?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
We have our folks at Spectra that really conduct that dialogue for us because that's kind of what they do around the nation. So I could only characterize it as an ongoing process.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Okay. Great. And then on New Hampshire, obviously, with the recent ruling, it's 10% of the pipe. Can you theoretically just bypass New Hampshire and socialize the cost through the rest of the New England region, just given the fact that it's such a small piece of that pipe?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Yeah. I mean, I think that when the regional states, all the states in the region and led by the governors quite frankly, put this construct together, it was with the understanding that each state would take its load share of the gas. So our view on that is we still think there's an opportunity for having New Hampshire take their respective load, which is not big as granted as you said. But we're still committed to work with the other governors and work with the State of New Hampshire to find a pathway through where they pay for their share of the gas.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Right. Right. And then let me just ask you a little bit more sort of just top-level question on the growth. I mean, obviously, investors are going to shift to 2020 and beyond, especially now given the delay of Access Northeast, which hopefully wasn't a surprise to people. But the question is, knowing how you've been able to backfill your growth, knowing sort of the reliability spending, you've done a pretty good job about negating the delay of Northern Pass, do you sort of envision I mean 5% to 7% potentially being put in jeopardy if Access Northeast is further delayed ? Or do you have enough in that pipeline, no pun intended, but do you have enough in that pipeline in reliability or whatever spend that you have that you don't envision 5% to 7% being impacted?
Philip J. Lembo - Eversource Energy:
So I know you said you may have jumped on late. I think, in the actual prepared remarks, I did reiterate our comfort and our guidance of the 5% to 7% earnings growth range. And so we're very comfortable there. Also, as you know, in February, we'll be doing an update of our outlook and adding another year and giving more visibility on the capital and have sort of outlined, as you mentioned, the hole and how to fill that in terms of transmission, gas, the solar project in Massachusetts. So we feel good about that rate and we'll have more information in terms of adding another year on when we get to the February time period.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Excellent. Thanks, guys.
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
You're welcome.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
Thanks, Shahriar. Next question is from Mike Gaugler from Janney. Good morning, Mike.
Michael Gaugler - Janney Montgomery Scott LLC:
Hey. Good morning, everyone. Nice quarter.
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Thank you.
Michael Gaugler - Janney Montgomery Scott LLC:
Given the delay in Access Northeast and other new capacity pipeline cancelations, just wondering how you're thinking about new reliability projects, as the existing capacity has to be spread more thinly. Or wondering has that optionality essentially been exhausted with the projects that are already announced and underway?
Leon J. Olivier - Eversource Energy:
Yeah. Mike, this is Lee. I think the reliability projects that have been built and are under construction and under review are all traced to either situations where there is current overloads or current violations of NERC criteria. And so, therefore, they're being built out to correct that. Most of the future reliability – or future transmission rather that will be needed in the region will not be reliability-based. It will be needed to connect renewables from a source, whether that's offshore, in Canada or now the New England such as Maine, to get that renewable energy into the load. So it's nature. It will be less around what we've done over the last 10 years and more around interconnecting renewables to get it to the load.
Michael Gaugler - Janney Montgomery Scott LLC:
Okay.
Philip J. Lembo - Eversource Energy:
And, Michael, this is Phil too. Just in terms of the specific items, I know you're talking about additional or future items, but there are still several ongoing reliability projects that we have that we're having significant spend on through the next several years in terms of Greater Hartford or Greater Boston and projects in New Hampshire, which may need some additional transmission in New Hampshire more than they've had in recent years. So there's good amount in the pipeline. And as Lee said, the nature of some of that going forward could change. But the pipeline is robust at this stage.
Michael Gaugler - Janney Montgomery Scott LLC:
All right. That's all I had, gentlemen. Thank you.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Eversource Energy:
All right. Well, thanks, Mike. That's the last question that we have this morning. So thank you very much for joining us today. We look forward to seeing many of you at the EEI Conference next week. Take care.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations Philip J. Lembo - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer Leon J. Olivier - Executive Vice President, Enterprise Energy Strategy & Business Development, Eversource Energy
Analysts:
Jerimiah Booream - UBS Securities LLC Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research) Andrew Weisel - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc. Caroline V. Bone - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker) David A. Paz - Wolfe Research LLC
Operator:
Welcome to the Eversource Energy Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. My name is Ellen and I will be your operator for today's call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Jeff Kotkin with Eversource Energy. Mr. Kotkin, you may begin.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thank you, Ellen. Good morning and thank you for joining us. I'm Jeff Kotkin, Eversource Energy's Vice President for Investor Relations. In addition to the news release, we posted slides on our website last night and will be referring to those slides during our remarks today. As you can see on slide one, some of the statements made during this investor call may be forward-looking as defined within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risk and uncertainty, which may cause the actual results to differ materially from forecasts and projections. Some of these factors are set forth in the news release. Additional information about the various factors that may cause actual results to differ can be found in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2015 and our Form 10-Q for the three months ended March 31, 2016. Additionally, our explanation of how and why we use certain non-GAAP measures is contained within our news release and on the slides and on our most recent 10-K. Turning to slide two, speaking today will be Phil Lembo, our CFO, and Lee Olivier, our Executive Vice President for Enterprise Energy Strategy and Business Development. Also joining us today are Jay Buth, our Vice President and Controller, and John Moreira, our Vice President of Financial Planning and Analysis. Now, I will turn to slide three and turn over the call to Phil.
Philip J. Lembo - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer:
Thank you, Jeff, and thank you all for joining us this morning. Today, I'll cover our second quarter and first half financial results, recent legislative and regulatory developments in our three states, an update on certain transmission projects, and a review of recent financing and rating agency activity. So let's start with the quarter and that's on slide four. We earned $203.6 million or $0.64 per share in the second quarter of 2016, compared with earnings of $207.5 million or $0.65 per share in the second quarter of 2015. Our Transmission segment earned $0.29 per share in the second quarter of 2016, compared with $0.25 per share in the second quarter of 2015. The primary factor driving the earnings growth was higher transmission rate base, which is due to our continued investment in the reliability of New England power grid. I'll summarize some of the key reliability-driven transmission projects in a moment. On the Electric Distribution and Generation side, we earned $0.32 per share in the second quarter of 2016, compared with earnings of $0.38 per share in the second quarter of 2015. The primary factors driving this decrease were higher depreciation and property taxes, higher interest expense and the absence this year of a regulatory true-up that CL&P recorded in the second quarter of 2015 as a result of the final Connecticut pure regulatory decision involving deferred taxes. Additionally, O&M was somewhat higher during the second quarter of 2016, compared to the second quarter of last year, but that was primarily due to timing issues attributable to last year's weather impacts. On the Natural Gas side, we earned $0.03 per share in the second quarter of 2016, compared with $0.02 per share in the second quarter of 2015. The primary drivers were higher revenues that resulted from the NSTAR gas rate increase that took effect January 1 of 2016 and cooler early spring weather in 2016 compared with 2015, which increased sales. Turning from the second quarter to the year-to-date results, we earned $447.8 million or $1.41 per share in the first half of 2016, compared with earnings of $460.8 million or $1.45 per share in the first half of 2015. Transmission earnings totaled $0.56 per share compared with earnings of $0.46 per share in the first half of 2015. In addition to a larger rate base, the 2016 period benefited from the absence of a $0.04 charge we recorded in the first quarter of 2015 related to the FERC Commission decision on the first complaint against the returns on equity earned by New England transmission owners. Our Electric Distribution and Generation segment earned $0.66 per share in the first half of 2016, compared with earnings of $0.80 per share in the first half of 2015. The decline was primarily due to the absence of a $0.09 per share benefits we recognized in the first quarter of 2015 as a result of resolving multiple regulatory proceedings involving NSTAR Electric. Additionally, higher depreciation and property taxes resulting from our ongoing investment in our distribution systems reduced year-to-date earnings by $0.04 per share. Our Natural Gas Distribution segment earned $0.19 per share in the first half of 2016, unchanged from the first half of 2015. The mild first quarter weather, which significantly reduced natural gas sales, was essentially offset by a rate increase at NSTAR gas and continued customer growth. We added nearly 4,700 space heating customers in the first six months of 2016 and continue to target 12,500 new heating customers this year. And conversion activity generally picks up in September and we expect to see the same trend this year. O&M continues to be a very good story this year. Our employees continue to provide excellent reliability for our customers while at the same time reducing cost. We're very proud of our service reliability here at Eversource. In 2015, we had the best reliability in the company's history and performed in the top quartile of the industry. That same high reliability continues in 2016. Turning back to O&M, you may recall that last year, our first quarter O&M was $0.05 per share lower due to the resolution of a bad debt dispute we had in Massachusetts. If we exclude that impact, lower O&M has added $0.04 per share to mid-year results in 2016, compared to the same period of 2015. And we expect lower O&M to continue to benefit to results in the second half of the year. In June, we moved away from two legacy payroll and benefit systems into one common platform. This is the latest in a number of systems conversions and process improvements that we've completed to make ourselves more efficient and better able to provide great service to our 3.6 million customers. With the good six months behind us, feel very good about where we are this year. We've affirmed our full year guidance of $2.90 to $3.05, as well as our long-term earnings per share growth in the 5% to 7% range. Turning from our financial results to operations, our Transmission investments totaled $360 million in the first half of 2016, and we continue to target Transmission capital investments of about $910 million for the full year. As you can see on slide five, we continue to move ahead on our major transmission reliability projects across the system. We are making solid progress on our two large families of reliability projects, the Greater Boston Reliability Solution and the Greater Hartford-Central Connecticut Solutions. In the second quarter, we received Connecticut Siting Council approval for a new $50 million transmission line west of Hartford and a series of improvements in the Bloomfield-Windsor area north of Hartford. Both of these projects are part of the Greater Hartford-Central Connecticut project and construction is expected to begin next quarter. To-date, we've invested $80 million in Greater Hartford projects and continue to expect to invest $350 million by the time they are completed in late 2018. On Greater Boston, you may have seen a news release earlier this month concerning the New Hampshire Site Evaluation Committee's approval of the Merrimack Valley Reliability Project, which we and National Grid are building in Massachusetts and New Hampshire. Our share of that project is $37 million. And we expect to begin construction this fall. I should also note that the estimated total cost for the Greater Boston suite of projects has increased modestly from $544 million to $565 million. And we continue to expect completing them by the end of 2019. We've invested approximately $78 million on these projects to-date. The New Hampshire Site Evaluation Committee has another large project before it, in addition to Northern Pass and Merrimack Valley. In June, the Committee accepted as complete our application to build the $77 million Seacoast Reliability Project in Southeastern New Hampshire. We expect the Site Evaluation Committee decision on this application by mid-2017 and to complete the Seacoast Project by the end of 2018. We've invested nearly $10 million in this project to-date. Now, I'll turn to slide six and recent developments involving legislative and regulatory bodies in Massachusetts and New Hampshire. In April, Massachusetts amended its laws to encourage continued expansion of solar generation in the state. In addition to raising solar net metering caps, the new law allows Massachusetts electric utilities to file with the DPU to construct up to 35 megawatts of solar generation. On June 30, NSTAR Electric filed an application with the Department of Public Utilities to build 35 megawatts of solar generation facilities. And Western Mass Electric Company, which already has eight megawatts of solar generation, applied to develop an additional 27 megawatts of solar generation. Together, we would expect to invest approximately $200 million in these new facilities. The statute requires the DPU to issue a decision on our applications by the year-end 2016 and for us to complete construction by the end of 2017. We would expect a return that is consistent with our allowed distribution ROEs. These expenditures are incremental to the capital investment plan that we presented in February. Also in Massachusetts, there's new legislation before The Senate and The House that would help the state move its clean energy goals. The House and Senate have approved different versions of the legislation over the last several weeks and now have a Conference Committee working to iron out a compromise version. Both versions call for contracting significant quantities of clean power from facilities such as offshore wind and other sources such as hydroelectric plants. The current session ends on Sunday. So by Monday, we should know the final outcome of this bill. Turning from Massachusetts to New Hampshire, on July 1, the New Hampshire PUC approved our comprehensive settlement with numerous state officials and other parties to divest PSNH's generating assets. To remind you, Public Service of New Hampshire's generating rate base included undepreciated plant, fuel and inventory totals of approximately $700 million. Any investment we have in our Generation business that is not recovered through the plant sale process would be recovered through securitization. The next step of this process is for the New Hampshire PUC to select an auction advisor to assist in the sale of the plants. We expect that selection to be finalized during the first half of September. And we anticipate that the entire sale securitization process will be completed in the second half of 2017. Continuing into financing, NSTAR Electric issued $250 million of 10-year unsecured debentures in May. Proceeds were primarily used to refinance $200 million of maturing debt. Also in June, Western Mass Electric closed on the sale of the $50 million of 10-year unsecured notes. Turning to slide seven, we've also had some positive news about our credit ratings and outlooks. Moody's upgraded both Public Service of New Hampshire and Western Mass and Fitch upgraded CL&P as well as Public Service of New Hampshire and Western Mass Electric. Meanwhile Standard & Poor's moved all of our outlooks to positive. These outlooks are a great testament to the company's strong financial position. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Lee.
Leon J. Olivier - Executive Vice President, Enterprise Energy Strategy & Business Development, Eversource Energy:
Okay. Thanks, Phil. I'll provide you with a brief update on our major investment initiatives and then turn the call back to Jeff for Q&As. Let's start with Northern Pass on slide nine. There have been a number of developments involving NPT since our most recent earnings call in early May. On June 23, the New Hampshire Site Evaluation Committee, or SEC, approved a detailed schedule for its review of Northern Pass. Among the key dates, the schedule calls for intervenor testimony by November 15, supplemental testimony by March 15, 2017, and a final pre-hearing conference by the end of March 2017. This schedule supports a final decision no later than September 2017. We are very encouraged by a series of other developments that have occurred with Northern Pass since our last earnings call, developments had underscored the benefits that the project will bring to New Hampshire in the coming decades. First, Public Service of – PSNH last month filed with the PUC, a 20-year power purchase agreement with a Hydro-Québec affiliate that will guarantee its customers with up to 100 megawatts of favorably priced clean on peak power. Second, in May, in litigation brought by certain project opponents, the New Hampshire Superior Court granted a summary judgment in favor of Northern Pass. The court determined that the State Department of Transportation, not project opponents, had exclusive authority to allow the project to be buried in the public right of way in a small section of State Highway in northern New Hampshire. Those project opponents have appealed that decision to the New Hampshire Supreme Court, but the lower court's reasoning was well supported by the facts and decades of New Hampshire law. And we fully expect the decision will be upheld. Third, we reached a settlement agreement with New Hampshire Public Utility Commission staff that, if approved by the Commission, will affirm that the designation of Northern Pass Transmission as a state utility, a required step in the overall project approval process. That designation is predicated on finding a public good and will allow Northern Pass to operate transmission facilities in the state of New Hampshire. As part of the agreement, Northern Pass committed that the forward New Hampshire plan will provide $20 million or $2 million a year for 10 years for programs or initiatives approved by the New Hampshire Public Utility Commission that advance energy efficiency, clean energy innovation, community betterment, and economic development in New Hampshire. Fourth, in June, our partner Hydro-Québec received approval for its portion of the project on the Canadian side from Québec's Energy Board. While a couple of additional approvals are necessary north of the border, one from the province and another from Canada's National Energy Board, this progress is consistent with our timetable for the United States portion of the project. Fifth, and most recently, on July 19, ISO New England issued its I.3.9 approval for Northern Pass, finding that the project as now proposed will not have a significant adverse effect on reliability of the region's grid. If the New Hampshire SEC issues a written order, approving the 192-mile New Hampshire section in September of 2017, we will be in a position to receive our U.S. Department of Energy approval that fall and commence construction by the end of 2017. Based upon that schedule, we should be in a position to complete the project in 2018 and 2019, and as you can see on slide 10, bringing into service by the end of 2019. From Northern Pass let's turn to Access Northeast on slide 11. Our share of Access Northeast is 40% or $1.2 billion. Access Northeast builds up the existing Algonquin footprint which already touches 60% of the power generation in New England. That percentage will grow as plants that have cleared the New England capacity process add nearly another 2,600 megawatts of natural gas generation that would be connected to the project. Access Northeast allows firm deliveries directly to power plants to ensure that they can operate when they are needed most. Turning to slide 12, Access Northeast is designed to address a critical problem that we have in New England in the winter months, the lack of access to enough natural gas to both heat our homes and businesses and run our power plants. Slide 12 looks at New England and MISO power prices in the summer of 2015 and compares them to the winter of 2014-2015. You can see that in the summer, our wholesale electricity prices are actually a bit lower than MISO's, but during the cold winter, they can be three times higher than MISO's. Access Northeast will address that challenge by providing 900 million cubic feet a day of additional natural gas supplies to serve the region's power generators during cold winter periods. That will allow up to 5,000 additional megawatts of the region's most efficient, low-cost units to remain online and when winter temperatures drop. Improved reliability of fuel supply will save New England customers approximately $1.5 billion to $2 billion in a typical winter and approximately $3 billion in an extreme winter, such as the winter of 2013 and 2014 period. On slide 13, you can see how our region's fuel mix shifts from natural gas to oil and coal when temperatures fall. December 2014 was a warm month and as a result very little coal or oil was burned. January and February of 2015 were quite cold, so less natural gas was available to generators and much more coal and oil were burned. This has not only increased the region's prices and increased the region's greenhouse gas emissions, which all New England states are committed to reduce significantly over the course of the next three decades. Slide 14 illustrates the beneficial environmental impact Access Northeast going to have on our region. By burning natural gas in new efficient plants rather than coal and oil and much older high heat rate plants, we can avoid the emissions of 3.4 million tons of CO2 each winter which is equivalent of taking about 650,000 cars off the road each year. As you can see in slide 15 providing adequate year round natural gas supplies is also critical to increasing the region's use of intermittent renewable energy sources such as wind and solar. The slide illustrates how much we expect renewable sources to grow in New England. Natural gas generation much more so than older nuclear and coal and oil units can provide the rapid response to changing grid demand and weather conditions. This is critical to operating a reliable grid. On the siting level, we continue to move through the FERC pre-application process and expect to be in a position to make our formal application in the fourth quarter of this year. On the state regulatory level, we have a number of developments over the past few months as you can see on slide 16. In Maine, the Public Utility Commission voted on July 19 to endorse a contract with Access Northeast assuming the states of Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island move ahead as well. We view this as a positive development for the project, because the State Commission concluded after a lengthy independent review that customers would benefit from Access Northeast. Further, the Commission approved the business model of the electric utilities entering into a pipeline capacity contract. In Massachusetts, the Department of Public Utilities will commence hearings next week on a 20-year natural gas capacity contracts that Access Northeast has signed with Eversource and National Grid electric utilities in Massachusetts. Hearings are due to conclude in mid-August, and we expect for approvals this fall. You may recall that the DPU ruled that it had authority under existing state statute to approve such contracts. A couple of project opponents appealed the DPU's order to the state Supreme Judicial Court claiming the Commission lacks such authority. That case is pending and we expect a decision later this summer. In Connecticut, the State Department of Energy and Environmental Protection, or DEEP, issued an RFP for natural gas capacity at the beginning of June with bids due on June 29. The Department received seven bids, which it is now evaluating and is expected to announce the winner or winners by the end of August, with filings at PURA by the end of October. Once contracts are filed, PURA has up to 90 days to rule on them. In New Hampshire, the Public Utility Commission is now evaluating the gas supply contract with Access Northeast and Public Service of New Hampshire which was filed earlier this year. The PUC's review is in two parts. The first is to determine whether the PU staff (24:45) was correct last year when they determined that the Commission has the authority to approve such contracts. The second part requires the Commission determine to whether the contract is in the customers' best interest. We're now awaiting a ruling on the first phase of that docket. In Rhode Island, National Grid filed with state regulators a long-term contract for Access Northeast capacity on June 30. A decision is due before the end of October of this year. The bottom line is that Access Northeast continues to make significant progress on multiple fronts. I don't have to remind you what is up stake here in New England, breaking point with more than 1,500 megawatts of generation that can burn coal or oil will shut down in two months. The Pilgrim nuclear power facility with nearly 700 megawatts will retire in two years. The issue in New England is not only the additional $1.5 billion to $2 billion that customers pay each winter for their power. It's whether even with high prices we have enough fuel during the coldest winter evenings to keep the customers' lights on. We expect to begin construction of Access Northeast by mid-2018. We have said before certain elements of the pipeline should enter into service in 2018, with additional pipeline segments and 6.8 billion cubic feet of LNG storage entering service in subsequent years. So now, I'm going to turn the call back over to Jeff for Q&A.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thank you, Lee, and I will return the call to Ellen just to remind you how to enter questions. Ellen?
Operator:
Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thank you, Ellen. Our first question this morning is from Jonathan Arnold from Deutsche Bank. Good morning, Jonathan. Jonathan? Yeah, must be on the other call. All right. Let's switch – we'll switch over to Mike Weinstein (27:09) from Credit Suisse. Good morning, Mike (27:11).
Unknown Speaker:
Hey, good morning. How are you doing?
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
All right. How are you?
Unknown Speaker:
All right, good. So what would be the implication for Access Northeast if the Massachusetts Supreme Court rule against the DPU authority? Is that the final word or is there another legal regulatory route that could be taken and on the same token, if it's rejected in Massachusetts, does that mean that Maine falls off too?
Philip J. Lembo - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer:
Yeah. In terms of Massachusetts, Mike (27:40), as we said, we are waiting for the pending decision that's coming out in the summer from the Mass Supreme Court. There's also legislation that is making its way through The House and Senate, right now, to address issues regarding additional wind and additional hydro and gas capacity in the region. So certainly, the legislature would have authority to develop any final legislative requirements in this area. So it's not the end of the game at the end of the day. You asked about Maine. I'm not sure how Maine would really fit into it. So certainly, the Maine PUC approval is contingent upon other states moving forward except for the state of Vermont. So we feel very confident that we're going to move forward in each of these states with the pipeline contracts.
Leon J. Olivier - Executive Vice President, Enterprise Energy Strategy & Business Development, Eversource Energy:
I would – this is Lee, Mike (28:41). I would just say that the legislators clearly understand the need for additional gas, and clearly, there has been a little bit of a hangover from the Kinder Morgan project, which had great opposition against it being kind of a 400-plus mile Greenfield project. So, there's some emotion there, but in all of our discussions with key legislative leaders, they understand that there needs to be more gas and we expect to have a successful outcome here.
Unknown Speaker:
Right. And on Northern Pass, I guess, at this point, what things do you need to do before the September 30 – or September 2017 deadline. Is there anything left? I mean I think there are DOE public meeting still happening, what else is going on?
Leon J. Olivier - Executive Vice President, Enterprise Energy Strategy & Business Development, Eversource Energy:
Yeah, I mean it's really all of the – for the most part, it's the SEC process, and it is really answering the hundreds if not thousands of intervenor questions associated with the project preparing for the hearings in the projects in the spring period time. So this is a period where really it's all about intervenors and getting timely turnaround of answers for their questions. So that's our main focus and as well, of course, we continue with our outreach in the communities in New Hampshire and also continue with our outreach with key political leaders in the state that by and large have been very supportive of the project.
Unknown Speaker:
The governor is still supportive?
Leon J. Olivier - Executive Vice President, Enterprise Energy Strategy & Business Development, Eversource Energy:
The governor is still supportive. She believes that the project, it's a – there is a process there and we need to follow the process through the SEC, but obviously, that's independent of the governor's decision.
Unknown Speaker:
Right. And I'm going to ask one more question only because I think other people might not be on this call, but discuss the – I was going to ask you to discuss new opportunities that might come from the Massachusetts legislation that's pending this weekend, not only from hydro, but also from wind, particularly in wind, going forward and where you see that going?
Leon J. Olivier - Executive Vice President, Enterprise Energy Strategy & Business Development, Eversource Energy:
Well, I mean clearly, if you have followed the European wind development, the technology there, they've installed about 10,000 megawatts of offshore wind, costs have come down fairly dramatically 30% or 40% reduction and they predict another significant reduction. So we believe that offshore wind will be viable in the region. There is six tracks out there that have been leased by the federal government through the Bureau of Offshore Energy Management, and we have to see what the final legislation says. Clearly, all of that offshore wind, which could be sizeable over a long period of time will need transmission, development to connect it into the grid in Southeast Massachusetts. So we think yes, that will happen into – there is a potential business opportunity there for us.
Unknown Speaker:
All right. Thanks a lot guys.
Leon J. Olivier - Executive Vice President, Enterprise Energy Strategy & Business Development, Eversource Energy:
Thank you.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thanks Mike (31:58). Next question is from Jerimiah Booream from UBS. Good morning, Jerimiah.
Jerimiah Booream - UBS Securities LLC:
Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the question here. I guess just first off on Northern Pass, since we've had a bit of a delay here, is there any kind of impact you can speak to on your longer-term EPS CAGR?
Philip J. Lembo - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer:
Yes, I can address that. This is Phil. No, there isn't. In fact, when you look at the schedule that is out for Northern Pass right now, we expect sort of a net spending move of about $500 million in terms of spending into other periods of time after 2017. We've – I'm very happy about where we are right now to be able to just on an initial preliminary review identify several projects that would be coming in, in 2017 to address that. So one is what I spoke about during my opening remarks which is about $200 million of incremental spending on solar, and that's really in that 2017 time period to build additional capacity of solar in Massachusetts. Also identified approximately $200 million of other transmission projects, either incremental projects or possibly a move of some projects, but essentially, incremental projects to fill in 2017. Also, looking at our gas reliability and expansion programs, there's a $25 million to $50 million incremental spend there, so very happy where we are. We're still working through our operating plans for 2017, but moving these projects into 2017 is a very positive for us at this stage.
Jerimiah Booream - UBS Securities LLC:
Yeah, that makes sense. And also just on a separate note, the renewable RFP going on, I think it just got delayed a little bit, but we should be getting the results soon. Just wondering what are the kind of opportunities that you guys see coming out of that for you specifically? I mean obviously, there's potentially a lot of generation going in, but I'm sure there's something there as well.
Philip J. Lembo - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer:
Well, in terms of the projects, we have projects that are bidding into the Clean Energy RFP, so certainly, those projects would be evaluated as part of the Clean Energy RFP process. In terms of coming out with additional projects after that, I think the question that was asked about additional opportunities earlier in terms of wind or hydro probably addresses that.
Leon J. Olivier - Executive Vice President, Enterprise Energy Strategy & Business Development, Eversource Energy:
Yeah, and that would really fall out of the whatever RFP comes out of the Massachusetts legislation. In that legislation, it calls for another RFP for a renewable energy next year. So we have to see what that is, how big that would be, does that include hydro as well. So we have to wait for the outcome of that. But the likelihood is there will be more opportunity there.
Jerimiah Booream - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay, great. That makes sense. Thanks for the questions.
Leon J. Olivier - Executive Vice President, Enterprise Energy Strategy & Business Development, Eversource Energy:
Thanks a lot.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thanks, Jerimiah. Next question is from Travis Miller from Morningstar. Good morning, Travis.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Good morning. Thank you. A question very high level, when you look at Northern Pass and Access Northeast and developments this quarter and even first half of the year, which project would you put the most either risk around it or probability of success however you want to think about it, very high level, just wondering?
Leon J. Olivier - Executive Vice President, Enterprise Energy Strategy & Business Development, Eversource Energy:
Yeah, Travis, this is Lee Olivier. I view both of these projects with a very, very high level of success and high probability. I mean looking at Access Northeast, clearly, there is the need for gas, because without that gas, reliability will be threatened; without that gas, we'll not be able to go forward and bring online the large scale renewable projects, whether it's offshore wind, onshore wind. We won't be able to do that. We won't be able to manage the reliability of the grid without having that kind of fast start, quick following capability that you get with gas-fired combined cycles or simple cycle plants. And of course, if you look at Northern Pass, right now, I mean we have cleared many if not most of the hurdles on Northern Pass, opponents of the project who have litigated have lost. We feel very confident in that project. It is a great deal. There will never be another deal like that, because the way that is bid essentially customers would pay a little approximately about 60% of the cost of the project. The project saves billions of dollars. It reduces 3 million tons to 4 million tons of carbon a year. If you look at Massachusetts which has very aggressive goals in reduction (37:14) material litigation with Conservation Law Foundation with the Massachusetts DPU that now requires that the state put together goals and objectives that demonstrate the reductions of carbon. That's the biggest. If you want to lower carbon reduction, you bring on Canadian hydropower. Again, that's probably the best deal around. There will probably never be another one like it where you have Hydro-Québec willing to pay up to $600 million of their own transmission on their site. So I have very high confidence in both of those projects. They are complex. They have taken lots of twists and turns, but we believe both of them are moving in the right direction.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Okay. Is there one that's ahead – you think is ahead of the other is Northern Pass just because you guys have been working on it?
Leon J. Olivier - Executive Vice President, Enterprise Energy Strategy & Business Development, Eversource Energy:
Well, I mean clearly, yeah, if you look at the regulatory timeline, Access Northeast, we expect to have agreements approved by the end of this year for Access Northeast filed at FERC by the end of this year and have an outcome of FERC approximately in the May timeframe of 2018. So from that standpoint, just looking at the regulatory schedule, that's a little bit ahead of where Northern Pass is.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Okay. And then, you brought up offshore wind brought a (38:38) couple questions there. The transmission opportunity, is that something that you guys would have first rights to, given just the offshore nature, how that works or would that be the developer who would have the first rights or would you have bidding rights? How would that work in terms of who would get the first rights?
Leon J. Olivier - Executive Vice President, Enterprise Energy Strategy & Business Development, Eversource Energy:
That would be part of the competitive process. And so, if you're developing transmission offshore, no, you would not have a franchise right there. You would have to, in all likelihood, have a partner which you're working with and/or have a business arrangement with one of the offshore wind developers. So that would not be a franchise right.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Okay. And then, any LCOEs or whisper contract prices that you've seen out there in terms of how the costs have come down for offshore wind?
Leon J. Olivier - Executive Vice President, Enterprise Energy Strategy & Business Development, Eversource Energy:
Well, we follow this, obviously, very closely, and you've got one company from Denmark. It's called Danish Oil and Natural Gas and they predict offshore wind coming in, all in including transmission somewhere around the $0.14 to $0.15 framework in approximately 2020. So that's a big difference from where Cape Wind was just a few years ago, so and they actually just did a deal recently in Europe, off of Holland that actually came in for around $0.11. So the turbines are getting bigger. They are more efficient and you're getting the economy of scale of larger machines, so it's driving the cost down, plus the supply chain is maturing as well.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Okay great. I appreciate it.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
All right. Thanks, Travis. Our next question is from Andrew Weisel from Macquarie. Good morning, Andrew.
Andrew Weisel - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Good morning, guys. First question on Access, would love to hear your thoughts on the FERC proceedings related to giving preferential treatment to nat gas plants and electric utility customers over others such as marketers. I believe the FERC is set to rule in about a month and two proceedings, one from Algonquin and one more broadly from NextEra and PSEG. To what degree could that FERC decision maybe affect the decision to go forward or not with the pipeline?
Leon J. Olivier - Executive Vice President, Enterprise Energy Strategy & Business Development, Eversource Energy:
Yeah. This is Lee, Andrew. And I guess, first of all, I would say the thesis which we have at FERC here or precedent is no different than what takes place right now for the LDC companies, where the LDC companies pay for pipeline infrastructure that's developed by a pipeline operator and as a result they get first preference on it. And then, whatever capacity they don't use, it goes into the marketplace. So this would work essentially the same. And so, clearly, anyone that has watched a middle of the winter knows that there's not enough gas and that hinders the marketplace and forces a lot of plants offline that would otherwise run should they be gas. Our development of pipeline and having long-term capacity contracts with EDCs, we believe will stimulate the competitive marketplace and do what it's really designed to do, which is to have the older more inefficient more – higher emission plants retire and have new plants come on through the fuller capacity market process. So if you – if for some reason that we don't expect that FERC rules adversely against the project, as in sites with the generators in this particular case or at least a couple of them, the project is still viable. The savings will still be large. Because the gas will flow into the market whether it's through a wholesale supplier or a marketer who still find its way to the market may have a slightly higher price, but it will find its way to the market.
Andrew Weisel - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Ok. So you don't see that as a potential deal breaker then?
Leon J. Olivier - Executive Vice President, Enterprise Energy Strategy & Business Development, Eversource Energy:
I do not.
Andrew Weisel - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Terrific. Next on Northern Pass. Two questions, first, Forest Society, so you successfully fought their lawsuit, but I understand they've now appealed that and that could – that's been accepted by the state Supreme Court and could take up to 18 months. Is there any chance that the SEC might let that interfere with the timing of their review, or do you think that the SEC wouldn't necessarily need to wait for that Supreme Court appeal?
Leon J. Olivier - Executive Vice President, Enterprise Energy Strategy & Business Development, Eversource Energy:
No. The SEC will be clearly focused on their statutorily required process and they will focus on that outcome and they will not take into consideration, we believe, whatever takes place inside of the Supreme Court. We feel very confident that the Supreme Court, New Hampshire Supreme Court will come to the same conclusion that the Superior Court did, because there's 100 years of case law and precedent that basically says that this is how it works and the Supreme Court in New Hampshire is historically very tied to what is the statute, what is the regulation, and have the regulatory bodies adhered to that, and if they had, then it's very clear that they will uphold it.
Andrew Weisel - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Understood. And I agree. Then lastly, the New Hampshire Consumer Advocate has made some headlines recently criticizing the PPA. Do you see that as any kind of risk to either the PPA being approved or how critical is the PPA to the overall project's SEC approval?
Leon J. Olivier - Executive Vice President, Enterprise Energy Strategy & Business Development, Eversource Energy:
I would just say the PPA is important. The PPA without disclosing all of the information in it, because much of it is proprietary, it's confidential, it's a very good PPA. It has been more received by policymakers and we believe that the PPA will be approved by the Commission, by the PUC. So we're confident now. It's a good deal. There are not a lot of other good deals around like that. And then, when you add up the other dollars, approximately $3 billion, the remainder of the $3 billion that New Hampshire will get, the $200 million Forward NH Plan, all the stimulus and economic development and so forth, this is a great deal for New Hampshire. And as I said earlier to another questioner, this is a deal that won't come along again, this will never come along again, a certain set of circumstances produced it and won't produce another one.
Andrew Weisel - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Sounds great. Thank you very much.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thank you, Andrew. Our next question is from Caroline Bone from Deutsche Bank. Good morning, Caroline.
Caroline V. Bone - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Hi, good morning, guys. Yeah, most of my questions have been answered, but so maybe just a few clarifications. With regard to Access Northeast, can you just remind us what specifically you need to have in hand before you can file a formal application at the FERC? I'm just wondering like do you just need to have the contract signed or do you need to have them actually approved at the state level?
Leon J. Olivier - Executive Vice President, Enterprise Energy Strategy & Business Development, Eversource Energy:
Yeah. Well, as part – Caroline, this is Lee. As part of the FERC pre-hearing process, pre-filing process, there is about approximately 14 supplements that we have to complete and provide to FERC. And the whole idea of that process is to get the developers of the pipelines together with those that are impacted by potentially the pipeline. So these are the towns, this is the states, for instance, the Department of Environmental Protection and so forth, it's the folks along the right away. It's getting the Army Corps of Engineers, the EPA (46:59), all of those folks involved, understanding what the scope of the project is, determining collectively if we can, what the mitigation initiatives would be. And then, by the time that you file this thing by the end of the year, you have a document that is very, very complete, that usually causes the FERC process to go along more smoothly. So that's kind of what we're doing. We don't have to have all the precedent agreements signed to submit the filing. Obviously, it's a good thing if you do, because you can demonstrate – they demonstrate the need. So having those are great, but you don't have to have those to do the filing.
Caroline V. Bone - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. Thanks for that. And then, just on – just going back to what you guys said earlier in the call. I know you mentioned that you've identified several projects to sort of offset the delay that we've now seen in Northern Pass. So I'm just wondering, I know you've also talked about share repurchase capacity before. And so, should we still be expecting a potential share buyback next year or if you're kind of accelerating projects to offset the Northern Pass delay, is that something that might be kind of postponed to a future year?
Philip J. Lembo - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer:
Yes, Caroline. This is Phil. I think as we've said in the past, really, our focus is to invest dollars in infrastructure needs that provide customers with benefits and address the region's energy needs. If it appears that those investments are not there, certainly, or available to us, certainly share repurchase is something to consider, but as we've said in the past, our focus is to invest the dollars in infrastructure to meet customers and region's energy and reliability needs.
Caroline V. Bone - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
So is it fair to say that at this point you see those investments, you have those investments to make?
Philip J. Lembo - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer:
Yes. I've identified a certain list of them as we went through this discussion. And we feel comfortable where we are on that.
Caroline V. Bone - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
All right. Thank you.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thank you, Caroline. Next question is from Praful Mehta from Citi. Good morning, Praful.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Hi, morning. Thanks guys. So just quickly a follow-up on that question on the 2017 earnings and the potential investments. Is solar and renewables one of those buckets and if it is, can you give us ballpark numbers in terms of how you're thinking of dollars and how much you want to deploy into different buckets versus transmission versus renewable versus others?
Philip J. Lembo - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer:
Well, in terms of the bucket for solar, that specifically is in the $200 million range. That relates specifically to Massachusetts' solar filings for our two Massachusetts utilities. So under new legislation that was passed in Massachusetts recently, it allows 35 megawatts of solar. So the 2017 number that I mentioned, $200 million specifically relates to that activity. In terms of...
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
And there's no other buckets – sorry go ahead.
Philip J. Lembo - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer:
No. No. Go ahead.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
I was just checking, so there's no plan for investment in solar that is not within the utility at this point?
Philip J. Lembo - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer:
That's correct.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Fair enough. All right. And secondly, I just wanted to understand you clearly have meaningful debt capacity at this point or you have clearly strong ratings, and with a strong currency as well, given where the market is in terms of M&A activities and just strategic direction, is there any opportunity you see out there that is worth looking at, or how are you looking at I guess strategically at this point in time in the marketplace?
Philip J. Lembo - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer:
Well, in terms of M&A, I think consistently we've said that we believe that there is likely to be consolidation in the industry and that makes sense. In our case, we've been very selective with respect to what makes sense in terms of benefits to our shareholders, benefits to customers, benefits to the region. We have demonstrated that you can do a deal or do deals that really are beneficial to shareholders, and at the same time, lower cost and become and stay and improve your world-class service. So those are the types of activities that we were involved in right now. We're focused on executing our plan that we've discussed with you. So that's – overall that's our sense of M&A.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Got you. Thank you, guys.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thank you, Praful. Next question is from David Paz from Wolfe. Good morning, David.
David A. Paz - Wolfe Research LLC:
Hey, good morning. Sorry to go back to your previous comments on Northern Pass, but just wanted to make sure I understand this. So what is the CapEx profile for Northern Pass in 2017 through 2019. I think you had about $700 million planned for 2017 and $600 million planned in 2018. What do those look like now?
Philip J. Lembo - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer:
Well, certainly, as I mentioned, sort of in 2017, the net of that, because even with the delay of obtaining the Site Evaluation Committee approval, et cetera, we still plan to have spending on Northern Pass in 2017, so sort of net – that would probably be in the $125 million to $175 million sort of area there, so that would reduce in 2017. In 2018 and in 2019, obviously, we've announced what the total size of the project would be. So we would develop a schedule to have the bulk of the remaining spending in those years. So there will be a shift out of 2017 and into 2018 and possibly 2019.
David A. Paz - Wolfe Research LLC:
Got you. Okay. And just remind me the ROE on Northern Pass spending is 12.56% during construction phase, is that right?
Philip J. Lembo - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer:
Yes.
Leon J. Olivier - Executive Vice President, Enterprise Energy Strategy & Business Development, Eversource Energy:
Yes.
David A. Paz - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay, thank you. And so, these other incremental projects that you mentioned previously, that would be somewhere you would expect earned returns somewhere in the 10% range, lower, higher?
Philip J. Lembo - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer:
Well, certainly, part of the investment that I talk about was continued investment in Northern Pass, so that would be at that rate. The transmission investments would be at the higher transmission rate. The solar, we expect to be in a distribution type level return.
David A. Paz - Wolfe Research LLC:
Great. Thank you.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thanks, David. Next question is from Mike Weinstein (54:22), again from Credit Suisse.
Unknown Speaker:
Hey. Just a quick follow-up on a comment you made earlier that you thought that Access Northeast is still a viable project even if FERC rules against the EDCs. And I'm just wondering if – does that mean that there's an actual – do you think there are marketers actually lined up right now to take their place or is it just more of an expression of the need for new gas in the region that you are really referring to?
Leon J. Olivier - Executive Vice President, Enterprise Energy Strategy & Business Development, Eversource Energy:
Yeah, Michael (54:51) this is Lee. It's more of an expression that the need of new gas, but there's always marketers out there. So if by some chance that, again, FERC ruled against us in this particular case, there's always – if you have a pipeline there, there will be marketers that would want to arbitrage it on a day-to-day basis, so that will always take place. But the gas will show up. The gas will land and there will be a reduction of cost, how much – what that difference is, I really can't tell you, but the gas will be in the market.
Unknown Speaker:
Got you.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
And Michael (55:30), you know that the application that's in there talks about giving preference to generators, I'm not sure if that's exactly how you're interpreting it.
Unknown Speaker:
Right, right. I'm not sure, so. And one final question, with the divestiture in New Hampshire, it looks like it delayed a little bit until late 2017, I guess, that adds another $0.03 or so to the earnings in 2017.
Philip J. Lembo - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer:
Yeah. It does contribute earnings as the plants are running or under ownership of Public Service of New Hampshire. So depending on the exact timing of the sale and the securitization, that would provide benefit throughout 2017.
Unknown Speaker:
Right. Okay. Thank you.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
All right. Well, that's the last question that we have today. If you have any follow-ups, please let us know. We're around today. Good luck with the 10 o'clock calls and have a great summer. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations James J. Judge - President & Chief Executive Officer Philip J. Lembo - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer Leon J. Olivier - EVP-Enterprise Energy Strategy and Business Development
Analysts:
Michael Weinstein - UBS Securities LLC Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research) Caroline V. Bone - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.
Operator:
Good morning, and welcome to the Eversource Energy First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. My name is Brandon, and I'll be your operator for today. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. Please note this conference is being recorded. And at this time, I will turn it over Jeff Kotkin. You may begin, sir.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thank you, Brandon. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. I'm Jeff Kotkin, Eversource Energy's Vice President for Investor Relations. As you can see on slide one, if you've gone into our slides, which are on our website, some of the statements made during this investor call may be forward-looking as defined within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risk and uncertainty, which may cause the actual results to differ materially from forecasts and projections. Some of these factors are set forth in the news release issued yesterday. Additional information about the various factors that may cause actual results to differ can be found in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2015. Additionally, our explanation of how and why we use certain non-GAAP measures is contained within our news release and the slides we posted last night on the website under Presentations & Webcasts and in our most recent 10-K. Turning to slide two, speaking today will be Jim Judge, who yesterday became Eversource Energy's President and CEO; and Lee Olivier, our Executive Vice President for Enterprise Energy Strategy and Business Development. Also joining us today are Werner Schweiger, our Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer; Phil Lembo, our new Senior Vice President and CFO; Jay Buth, our Vice President and Controller; and John Moreira, our Vice President of Financial Planning and Analysis. Now, I will turn to slide three and turn over the call to Jim.
James J. Judge - President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you, Jeff, and thank you all for joining us this morning. I also wanted to thank many of you on our call today for the notes you've sent me since our announcement last month of Tom's retirement. Tom's record of providing value and service to customers and investors as CEO first of Boston Edison, then NSTAR, Northeast Utilities and Eversource Energy, was unsurpassed in our industry. I was both honored and tremendously excited by being our Board's choice to succeed him. This company has a tremendous future ahead. We continue to identify investment opportunities to enable our region to successfully implement the state and federal energy policies that continue to shape our region. We also have what I consider to be the best group of 8,000 employees in the industry and a very talented and very experienced management team. I look forward to continuing to work closely with our investors as our company continues to deliver to you attractive returns by providing the highest level of service to customers. As Jeff mentioned, pleased to share with you that yesterday the Eversource Board of Trustees elected Phil Lembo as the company's Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer. Most of you know Phil well. He's been a key contributor for us for years. So congratulations, Phil, and I'd like you to say a few words.
Philip J. Lembo - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer:
Yeah. Thank you, Jim. I would echo Jim, thank you for those notes and congratulations and calls I received. So thank you very much. I know I've known a lot of you for many years going back to the investor relations days several years ago. But I'm looking forward to meeting those of you who I haven't had a chance to meet yet and working with you closely over the weeks and months ahead. I know I have some big shoes to fill and I'm excited about the opportunity. Just also want to close it and say I'll be part of the Eversource team that's at the AGA Conference down in Naples and I hope that I'll get to meet you in person at that event. So thank you, Jim, and I'll turn it back to you.
James J. Judge - President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Phil. Today, I will cover our first quarter financial results, strong operating performance results for the quarter, an update on certain transmission projects and regulatory dockets. Starting with our financial result in slide four, we earned $244 million or $0.77 per share in the first quarter of 2016, compared with earnings of $253 million or $0.80 per share in the first quarter of 2015. Both of those are GAAP numbers since we are no longer separating our merger integration costs in reporting our results. These results represent a solid start to 2016 despite the very mild weather in the first quarter. These results also support our full year EPS estimate of $2.90 to $3.05 per share as well as our long-term earnings growth rate of 5% to 7%. Our transmission segment earned $0.27 per share in the first quarter of 2016 compared with $0.21 per share in the first quarter last year. The first of two principle drivers of that increase was the absence of a $0.04 charge we recorded in the first quarter of 2015 after FERC issued its final decision in the first New England Transmission ROE complaint. The second factor was the earnings growth we are experiencing as a result of our continued investment in the reliability of the New England power grid. That rate case growth added $0.02 per share in the first quarter of 2016. On the electric distribution side, we earned $0.34 per share in the first quarter this year compared with earnings of $0.41 per share in the first quarter of 2015. Three principle factors contributed to this $0.07 per share reduction in earnings. The primary driver was the absence in 2016 of about $0.09 of benefits we realized in the first quarter last year from settling several longstanding dockets at NSTAR Electric. Milder weather in the first quarter of 2016 reduced earnings at NSTAR Electric and PSNH where distribution revenues are not fully decoupled, and that cost us about $0.02 per share. Partially offsetting those impacts were lower O&M and other items, including our second quarter 2015 accumulated deferred income tax settlement at Connecticut Light and Power. Altogether, those factors added about $0.04 per share in the first quarter. On the natural gas distribution side, we earned $0.16 per share in the first quarter this year compared with earnings of $0.18 per share in the first quarter of 2015. Warmer weather was a principle factor with lower gas revenues costing us $0.05 per share despite a nearly $16 million annualized rate increase at NSTAR Gas. We had a very cold first quarter in 2015 and a very mild first quarter in 2016. Heating degree days in the Boston area were 21% above normal in the first quarter of 2015 when NSTAR Gas did not yet have decoupling. In Connecticut, where Yankee Gas is not yet decoupled, heating degree days were about 10% below normal in the first quarter this year compared with 18% above normal in the first quarter of 2015. The weather impact was partially offset by lower O&M, a rate increase at NSTAR Gas and other factors that together added $0.03 per share to earnings. Turning from our financial results to operations, our transmission investments totaled $140 million in the first quarter of 2016, and we continue to target transmission capital investments of $911 million for the full year. As you can see on slide five, we continue to move ahead on our major reliability transmission projects across the system. We are making solid progress on our two large families of reliability projects, the Greater Boston Reliability Solutions and the Greater Hartford/Central Connecticut Solutions. We have now invested more than $130 million in those projects with many elements now completed, under construction, or before regulators for approval. By 2019, we expect to invest $900 million in these comprehensive solutions to our region's energy – long-term reliability challenges. The New Hampshire Site Evaluation Committee has a number of projects before it, including Northern Pass. Last month, we filed our application with the Site Evaluation Committee to build the $77 million Seacoast Reliability Project in Southeastern New Hampshire. We expect a decision on our application by mid-2017, and to complete the Seacoast project by the end of 2018. We also continue to expand our natural gas delivery system in the first quarter. We've added about 2,500 natural gas heating customers in the first quarter, up about 20% from the 2,050 we added in the first quarter of 2015, and very consistent with our full year 2016 goal of 12,500 new heating customers. We added a 72nd town to the Yankee Gas service territory, the town of Bozrah in Eastern Connecticut. And despite the mild winter, we did have one frigid weekend around President's Day, when both Yankee Gas and NSTAR Gas set all-time records for the amount of natural gas delivered in a single day. On February 14, NSTAR Gas delivered over 8.5% more natural gas to our customers than the previous record set back in January, 2014. Now, I will turn to our regulatory calendar in slide six. We are awaiting a decision from the New Hampshire PUC on our comprehensive settlement with numerous state officials and other parties to divest PSNH's generating assets. To remind you, PSNH generating rate base, including under-appreciated plants, fuel and inventory, totals approximately $700 million. Any investment we have in our generation business that is not recovered through the plant sale process will be recovered through securitization. We continue to expect the entire sale and securitization process to be completed by this time next year. Moving from New Hampshire to Washington, on March 22, the administrative law judge at FERC handling complaints number two and complaint number three involving the ROEs earned by all New England transmission owners issued his initial recommendation. For the 15-month refund period ended in March 2014, the 400-page recommendation called for a base ROE of 9.59% and a cap of 10.42%. For the 15-month period ending October 2015, the decision called for a base ROE of 10.9% and a cap of 12.19%. Our currently allowed ROE is 10.57% and our current cap is 11.74%. So if the FERC were to adopt the ALJ recommendation, we would find ourselves under-reserved for the earlier refund period by $34 million after tax and over reserved for the later refund period by $8 million after tax. Because we cannot be certain how FERC commissioners will ultimately decide the case, we didn't book any charges this quarter due to the ALJ recommendation. We will reexamine the issue as this process moves forward. If FERC were to adopt the ALJ recommendation, we would have a one-time net charge of approximately $0.08 per share. Going forward, however, we would earn a higher ROE of 10.9% compared with the current base of 10.57%. Parties to the case filed comments on the ALJ recommendation on April 21. We continue to expect the final FERC decision around the end of this year or early 2017. I should note that after six months of no additional complaints, a fourth complaint was filed this past Friday by Eastern Massachusetts Municipal Electric Companies. We await FERC action on this fourth complaint. Turning to financing, Eversource parent issued $500 million of senior notes in March, $250 million of five-year notes with a coupon of 2.5%, and $250 million of 10-year notes with a coupon of 3.35%. Proceeds were used to pay down short-term debt. The issuances were several times oversubscribed, and we're very pleased with the rates we received. Now, I'll turn the call over to Lee.
Leon J. Olivier - EVP-Enterprise Energy Strategy and Business Development:
Okay. Thank you, Jim. I'll provide you with a brief update on our major investment initiatives and then turn the call back to Jeff for Q&A. Let's start with Northern Pass on slide eight. The review process for Northern Pass continues to move along according to schedule. March was an important month from the standpoint of receiving public input on our project. A total of seven public meetings were held around this date in the month, three by the New Hampshire Site Evaluation Committee, two by the U.S. Department of Energy, and two jointly between these two primary permitting agencies. The Site Evaluation Committee will hold two additional public meetings on some follow-up items, one later this month and another in June. April 4 was the deadline for the written comments on the draft environmental impact statement, and we expect a final environmental impact statement from the DOE in the fourth quarter of this year. On the state side, the New Hampshire SEC recently established a near-term schedule through the end of June, providing for commencement of the discovery process in mid-May. The dates are similar to what we had proposed. Under the state statute, we would expect the New Hampshire SEC to hold evidentiary hearings and issue a decision before the end of the year. We are aware that some interveners have requested a more prolonged review period, and we expect a ruling soon on those requests and establishment of a firm schedule. Assuming the final schedule is consistent with the statutory deadline, as you can see on slide nine, it would support the issuance of a presidential permit from the Department of Energy early next year and the commencement of construction shortly thereafter. We continue to see support for the project building in New Hampshire, and we were gratified by the number of favorable comments in the public meetings, particularly from the labor and business communities of New Hampshire. We believe this is a sign of growing public support for the project and the billions of dollars of benefits it will bring to New Hampshire. As stated in our February Earnings Call, we bid both Northern Pass and the Clean Energy Connect into the three-state electric RFP. Clean Energy Connect would allow 600 megawatts of carbon-free energy to flow from New York into New England. The review process for our projects and the other approximately 20 that were bid into the process continues, and we expect the states involved in the RFP, Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island, to announce the winning bids this summer. I will now turn to slide 10 and the Access Northeast project we plan to build with our partners Spectra Energy and National Grid. To remind you, Access Northeast is a $3 billion project to upgrade the existing Algonquin pipeline and add 6.8 billion cubic feet of LNG storage in Acushnet, Massachusetts, to bring firm natural gas supplies to power generators in New England. Our share of Access Northeast is 40%, or $1.2 billion. The project is designed to provide 900 million cubic feet per day of additional natural gas supplies to serve the region's power generators during cold winter periods. That will allow up to 5,000 additional megawatts of the region's most efficient low-cost units to remain online when winter temperatures drop, saving New England customers approximately $1.5 billion to $2 billion in a typical winter and approximately $3 billion in an extreme winter such as the 2013 and 2014 period. Access Northeast builds up the existing Algonquin footprint which already touches 60% of the power generation in New England, a percentage that will soon grow as nearly 2,600 megawatts of new proposed plants are built and connected to the project. Access Northeast allows direct last-mile deliveries to the power plants to ensure greater reliability and cost benefits. Business model is that electric utilities sign long-term contracts with Access Northeast and then retain an independent capacity manager to market that capacity to generators out of market price. Without Access Northeast, those generators are frequently without fuel to run their units during cold winter weather when the region's existing pipeline capacity is used primarily to heat homes and businesses. If a large amount of new pipeline capacity is set aside to meet the fuel supply needs of natural gas generators, we can depend less on more costly and higher emitting coal and oil plants that typically operate when the region's natural gas suppliers are short. We continue to make significant progress on securing and seeking approval of contracts with New England Electric distribution companies. The current status of the state reviews is on slide 11. You will recall the following in RFP this past fall, NSTAR Electric, Western Mass Electric, and two National Grid electric distribution companies filed with the Massachusetts DPU seeking approval of contracts for pipeline and storage capacity with Access Northeast. Our two utilities asked for a decision by October 1 of this year. The DPU has established a schedule to review that filing that would support a decision in the early fall. Evidentiary hearings on all of the contracts are scheduled for this summer. Once approved by the Department of Public Utilities, these contracts will account for more than 40% of Access Northeast targeted capacity. In Connecticut, we expect the State Department of Energy and Environment Protection to issue request for proposals for natural gas capacity shortly. We expect this process to be complete with approved contracts late this year or early in 2017. In New Hampshire, you may recall that the Public Utilities Commission issued an order on January 19 in which they accepted a staff report that concluded that the Public Utility Commission had sufficient authority to approve electric distribution contracts, financial gas supplies if those contracts were shown to be in customers' interests. On February 18, Public Service of New Hampshire filed with state regulators a natural gas contract with Access Northeast that was similar to what the four Massachusetts electric utilities filed in their state. If the New Hampshire Public Utility Commissioners agree with the staff that they have sufficient authority to approve such agreements, they would then determine whether the specific contracts submitted were in the customer's best interest. A technical session on the docket scheduled was held yesterday. We are optimistic that the commissioners will agree with the staff that they have authority to approve a contract with Public Service of New Hampshire and Access Northeast. The PUC's consideration of whether the contracts provide benefits to customers would follow its legal ruling on the issues. In Maine, where regulators have been engaged in natural gas contracting issue for some time, state regulators are scheduled to reach a decision on recommended solutions by the early fall. In Rhode Island, National Grid issued in RFPs in the fall with bids received November 13, around the same time as the Massachusetts electric distribution companies had their RFP. We expect the National Grid to make a decision and file with Rhode Island regulators by early this summer. In Vermont, the state has expressed support for additional natural gas infrastructure, but its level of participation is yet to be determined. We expect that the state processes will be sufficiently advanced by the end of this year so that we can promptly file a formal application with FERC and bring additional natural gas supplies into New England for the winter 2018 to 2019. We continue to believe that Access Northeast offers an excellent near-term and long-term answer to the region's intensifying winter energy challenges. And now, I'd like to turn the call back over to Jeff for any Q&As.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
All right. And I'm going to turn it back to Brandon just to remind you how to answer questions.
Operator:
Thank you, sir.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
All right. Thank you. Our first question this morning is from Mike Weinstein from UBS. Good morning, Mike.
Michael Weinstein - UBS Securities LLC:
Hey. Good morning. I was just wondering if we could talk about the – whether the current status of the RFPs and expected approvals for gas contracts support beginning construction in 2017 for getting major sessions with the pipe online for the winter of 2018 and 2019, generally speaking broadly.
Leon J. Olivier - EVP-Enterprise Energy Strategy and Business Development:
Yeah, Mike. This is Lee Olivier. The construction period would start for the project in 2018, will start in early 2018, approximately the April-May timeframe and then the first sections would go in on the piping for the winter of 2018. So you're talking about the November timeframe of 2018. I would say right now we're still on schedule. We will be prepared to file the comprehensive filing at FERC in the November-December timeframe. We believe the timing in and around the other states, including Connecticut, even though Connecticut is built inside of their process, they have 90 days to negotiate precedent agreements with the EDCs, we think that could be done in approximately 30 days or 35 days. Their approval process through their regulatory body PURA is a very short term, it's about 60 days. So we think all of these schedules line up right now for conclusion by the end of this year and filing with FERC and start with construction in the spring of 2018 for the first phase of the pipeline.
Michael Weinstein - UBS Securities LLC:
Are you seeing more support for the project, just broadly speaking, as a result of the cancellation of Northeast Energy Direct?
Leon J. Olivier - EVP-Enterprise Energy Strategy and Business Development:
I would say, although, the two projects were designed somewhat differently, we were designed to supply gas to generators to firm up 5,000 megawatts and they – ostensibly the (24:55) all around providing LDC power supplies. I think the fact that they're not going to be there obviously puts more pressure on the overall gas supplies of the region. So I believe that there is more support firming up around Access Northeast, both in the business community and with policymakers as well.
Michael Weinstein - UBS Securities LLC:
And just one last one. Can you give us an update on Massachusetts legislation and work for renewables in the state, how that might impact things like the Clean Energy Connect project, things like that?
James J. Judge - President & Chief Executive Officer:
Sure, Mike. This is Jim. We had solar legislation that was approved in Massachusetts that increases that needling cap and actually extends the opportunity for utilities to consider a utility-owned solar. There is also proposed legislation that the governor is endorsing which recommends hydroelectric commitments as well as offshore wind is being discussed as well. Those are only in draft form of proposed, it's only until the solar legislation is passed today.
Michael Weinstein - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. Thanks a lot.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
All right.
James J. Judge - President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thanks, Mike. Our next question this morning is from Travis Miller from Morningstar. Good morning, Travis.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Good morning. Thanks. I was wondering just on the demand, so electric demand in particular. How much of that was weather do you estimate? I know it's tough to do.
James J. Judge - President & Chief Executive Officer:
Travis, it's a tough question because you have such an extreme change from one year to the next, a very, very cold winter in the first quarter, a very mild winter this quarter resulting in a sales decline in the electric side of 8.5%. I would say that virtually all of that is weather-driven. I think without the – if we had had normal weather, I think the sales would have been close to flat, is my estimate.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Correct. Is that – remind me what your outlook is for this year in terms of electric sales growth.
James J. Judge - President & Chief Executive Officer:
Flat is the estimate that we provided.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Okay. And is that – if we look out, call it five years or something, what kind of trends are you seeing in terms of what would keep electric demand flat or 0.5%, something well below what we've seen historically? Are there particular specific trends and programs perhaps that you would see depressing that type of demand?
James J. Judge - President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. We're estimating the long-term growth rate on the electric side to be flat as well. As you know, we are decoupled in a number of our franchises. And as we have future rate cases, we'll be decoupled everywhere, I expect. But we are forecasting flat on the electric side, but because of the gas conversions going on, we think there'll be 2% to 3% growth in gas sales annually. And really I think the primary driver to that flat growth has got nothing to do with the economy, in particular in the Boston area the economy is moving. There's lots of construction going on. But we as a company spend $500 million a year, $0.5 billion a year on energy efficiency, and I think that has a significant impact – 2% impact on the sales results for the company. Now, fortunately, the rate-making mechanism for energy efficiency spending makes us whole, either decoupling our loss-based revenues reimburse us. If we actually do a good job on the projects, we're able to earn an incentive. And at the same time, we're recovering our costs as we incur them each year. So the cash flow is positive as well. So, yeah, were it not for energy efficiency, I think we'd be looking at 2% or higher sales volume growth.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Okay, great. I appreciate the thoughts. Thanks.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thank you, Travis. Our next question is from Caroline Bone from Deutsche Bank. Good morning, Caroline.
Caroline V. Bone - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Hey. Good morning, and first of all congratulations, Jim and Phil. That's wonderful news.
James J. Judge - President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you very much.
Philip J. Lembo - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer:
Thank you.
Caroline V. Bone - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
You're welcome. So I just have one question. Last call, I believe you guys discussed the possibility of share buybacks. And I was just wondering if you could kind of review with us the circumstances in which we might see such a program?
James J. Judge - President & Chief Executive Officer:
Sure. We have a lot of positive cash flow items, right? Our fundamental business is strong to begin with. We've got bonus depreciation that's been extended. We have $700 million of cash coming in the door next year from the divestiture and securitization. And what we have said in the past is that to the extent that we can't find additional projects to pursue, to redeploy that cash, ultimately it's shareholders' monies and so obviously we would pay off some debt as well. But we would consider a share buyback if there wasn't a better use of the proceeds. That being said, I wouldn't expect any announcement this year. I mean, we are certainly executing to our plan for 2016. As we reaffirm guidance today, we continue to believe that we're going to be able to achieve those results and those results for 2016 do not assume a buyback is in place.
Caroline V. Bone - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. Thank you. That's very clear.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thanks, Caroline. We don't have any other questions this morning. So we want to thank you for joining us. We look forward to seeing you at many conferences over the next couple of weeks, and have a good rest of the day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thanks, Brandon.
Operator:
You bet. Take care.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
All right.
Executives:
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations Thomas J. May - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer Leon J. Olivier - EVP-Enterprise Energy Strategy and Business Development James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President
Analysts:
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI Daniel L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker) Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC Travis Miller - Morningstar Research Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Partners Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker) Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC
Operator:
Welcome to the Eversource Energy Fourth Quarter Earnings Call. My name is John, and I'll be our operator for today's call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. Please note, the conference is being recorded. And I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Jeff Kotkin.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thank you, John. Good morning and thank you for joining us. I'm Jeff Kotkin, Eversource Energy's Vice President for Investor Relations. We posted slides last night on our website that we will reference during our remarks today. And as you can see on slide one, some of the statements made during this investor call may be forward-looking as defined within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risk and uncertainty, which may cause the actual results to differ materially from forecasts and projections. Some of these factors are set forth in the news release issued yesterday. Additional information about the various factors that may cause actual results to differ can be found in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2014 and our quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the three months ended September 30, 2015. Additionally, our explanation of how and why we use certain non-GAAP measures is contained within our news release and the slides we posted on our website under Presentations and Webcasts and in our most recent 10-K and 10-Q. Turning to slide two, speaking today will be Tom May, our Chairman, President and CEO; Lee Olivier, our Executive Vice President for Enterprise Energy Strategy and Business Development; and Jim Judge, our Executive Vice President and CFO. Also joining us today are Werner Schweiger, our Executive Vice President and COO; Phil Lembo, our Vice President and Treasurer; Jay Buth, our Vice President and Controller; and John Moreira, our Vice President of Financial Planning and Analysis. Now, I'll turn over the call to Tom and slide three.
Thomas J. May - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, everyone. I have the easy job this morning of making the introductions and let me start by saying surprise, surprise. We've had another great year. Jim, in a minute, will take you through all the numbers to explain that. And Lee will take you through the significant big capital projects that we have. And they will both report on great progress. So, we're moving along quite nicely. One of the things that we have been focusing on for the last four years is customer service. Those of you that know me, I'm a nut about customer service. And I think that in 2016, operationally, we had the best ever year with record reliability, record number of customers we were able to connect into our gas system. And we think we did that at a time when the delivery part of our bills have been very, very stable. In 2016, we think we're going to bring it to the next level. We're focused on the customer touch points. We have successfully implemented a new outage management system throughout the three states so that, if you will, our order entry system is consistent for all 3.5 million of our customers. And with this technology, which has great connectivity between our customers and our electrical components, we're going to be able to take it to the next level with a communication strategy that will let the customers know exactly what's going on at all times with their system and their connections. We're also going to be rolling out a new bill, new website, again, important interactions with the customer that we think are the key to our success long-term. For the region, as you know, it's an exciting time in New England. We are in a very unique phase. I think just last week, Gordon van Wheelie, who runs ISO New England, made a great presentation to the business community, and its focus was the needs going forward. And critical, first thing that he addressed is the gas infrastructure needs, showed the difference between our pricing and New York and other regions in the winter timeframes when our gas infrastructure experiences constraints, and whether gas prices are high or gas prices are low, the differential is very significant. He also talked about the transmission system and the impacts that are going to be felt as we as a region meet our carbon reduction goals and move almost 35% or more than 35% of our fossil generation over the renewable generation. And so, exciting time and we're right in the middle of that and we'll talk more about that. And for investors, of course, you know that we work for you. The foundation for TSR, which we measure very carefully, is growing earnings per share and growing dividends. And that's what we'll talk to you about our ability to continue that as we go forward. And as we do that, we think we will provide attractive returns while maintaining the highest credit rating in the industry. If you flip to page four, my favorite slide in the deck, we continue to outperform our peers in the market over the long-term. Last year was kind of a flat year. We do believe we did better than the industry. And as you can see by the bottom chart, as long as we keep our dividends growing, and this week, we raised our dividend 6.6% or $0.11, and despite that, we still, as you know, have a very modest payout ratio. I won't dwell on those numbers, although I do like to. The last slide I just would mention before I turn it over to Lee is page five. And we're really quite proud of this. We've grown into a role as a regional leader. I referenced the recent ISO New England presentation that Gordon made and their view on the regional challenges. But what has been very interesting, and Lee is in the center of all this, is that as the largest player in New England, we seem to be the one that everybody comes to when they think they can help our customers in the region achieve our energy goals. And so, we're working with several partners to help create the solutions that will bring us to the modern era, whether that's the pipeline constraints that I mentioned. Again, we think we have the best project and the best partner in the form of Spectra Energy that allows us to use existing facilities that pass by every one of our most efficient new gas-fired units in New England. And with our plan, we'll keep those units in the competitive queue each and every day of the winter. On the renewable energy side, we think we have – and there we'll probably talk a little bit more about the three-state RFP, but as we look at that, we think we have really the only dispatchable project that can flow a substantial amount, no pun intended, of carbon-free energy into the region at the peak times that will, again, affect the pricing in the queue. Whether it's the oil heat dependency that, in particular in Connecticut, is a key program in the Connecticut energy policy, we found this year that despite the fact that the gap between oil and gas shrunk considerably that people still want to convert. And we were able to convert about 11,000 customers last year. And I think we already converted 1,000 in January. So, the mild weather, while we don't like it from a sales perspective, allows us to continue and get a lot of work done. And, of course, the forefront of everything in New England in terms of solving our energy problems and backing out carbon is energy efficiency. It's the cheapest way to achieve our objective. We have award-winning EE programs. As this slide says, we spent $0.5 billion a year, but last year we actually exceeded our goals. Spent less, exceeded our megawatt hour goals and had our incentives. We exceeded our plan by about $5 million on the incentive side. So, we're very proud of that. The bottom line is we want our customers to see us as the solution to their energy concerns. And that's why it's an exciting place to be, New England, and for us to be in the center of all this. And with that, I know you would like to hear more about the projects. Every time I'm in front of a group, they want to ask about Northern Pass or Access Northeast, and even my board is always interested in what's going on with the projects. So with that, I'll hand it over to Lee to give you more flavor on progress report on where we are with some of these stuff.
Leon J. Olivier - EVP-Enterprise Energy Strategy and Business Development:
Okay. Thank you, Tom. I'll provide you with brief update on our major investment initiatives and then turn the call over to Jim. Let's start with Northern Pass and slide seven. In December, the Hampshire Site Evaluation Committee, or SEC, determined that our Northern Pass application is complete and commenced the formal review process. As part of that process, the SEC held five public information sessions on the project in January and will hold another round of public hearings later this quarter. Simultaneously, we continue to respond to questions about the project from the multiple state agencies that are participating in the review. As you can see from slide eight, we're expecting the Hampshire SEC to vote on the Northern Pass, consistent with its current schedule, which concludes on December 19. In parallel, the U.S. Department of Energy will host a series of four public hearings on its draft Environmental Impact Statement or EIS on Northern Pass the week of March 7. Two of them will be held jointly with the New Hampshire Site Evaluation Committee. Written comments on the draft EIS are due to the DOE by April 4. We expect the DOE to finalize the EIS in the second half of this year and anticipate a Presidential Permit issue soon after than the Hampshire SEC process has concluded. That time table has not changed and we ensure that all relevant conditions of the SEC decision will be reflected in the Presidential Permit as well. We continue to feel very good about the review process on Northern Pass. We're receiving strong support for the project both inside and outside of New Hampshire. At the first public information session last month in Franklin, New Hampshire, where the DC to AC converter station will be located, we received significant support from local leaders, the business community and labor representatives. In Massachusetts, Governor Baker said in his State of the State speech last month that increasing access to affordable hydroelectric power was the top priority of his administration. As Jim will discuss in his remarks, our new capital expenditure forecast reflects revised $1.6 billion of cost of the project we announced in October and also allows the vast majority of the construction to take place in 2017 and 2018. As you probably know, Northern Pass is one of two projects connected to Eversource that were bid into the joint state RFP. As shown on slide nine, the other project is the Clean Energy Connect. This project involves construction of the new 600 megawatt, 25 mile transmission line between a transmission substation we own in Hinsdale, Massachusetts and a transmission substation in Easton, New York State. This project will utilize a back-to-back HVDC converters to ensure deliverability into New England. We are developing it with Brookfield, and Iberdrola, and EDP Renewables. These partners already have a presence in New York. They've not been specific about the cost, but our share, which is entirely a transmission investment, will be more than $400 million. If approved as part of the RFP, we expect this project to be built in the 2018 through 2020 timeframe, and for our investment to earn returns consistent with FERC-regulated transmission investments. Each of the three states involved in the Clean Energy RFP; Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island will go through a process to select the winning bids and submit them to regulators for approval. The RFP schedule is on slide 10. As you can see, we expect contracts with the successful bidders to be executed by the end of the third quarter and for the contracts to be approved by the end of this year. We believe that the two projects we are jointly proposing represent the region's best options for low-cost, firm, reliable and non-carbon emitting resources. Regarding Northern Pass, our bids into the RFP does not change in any respect the significant benefits this project will provide to the host state of New Hampshire. Our Forward New Hampshire plan remains in place. We anticipate $80 million per year in energy savings to New Hampshire, additional savings specific to New Hampshire as a result of a power purchase agreement with HQ, a commitment to hire New Hampshire workers first, a $200 million fund to support economic development and community initiatives, as well as other benefits. I'll now turn to slide 11 and the Access Northeast project we plan to build with our partners, Spectra Energy and National Grid. To remind you, Access Northeast is a $3 billion project to upgrade the existing Algonquin pipeline and add 6.8 billion cubic feet of LNG storage in Acushnet, Massachusetts to bring firm gas supplies to power generators in New England. Our share of the Access Northeast project is 40% or $1.2 billion. FERC has accepted the pre-filing we made last year and we're continuing to submit information on the project to FERC as part of that process. In January, FERC staff completed 13 open houses on the project in the region. We plan to make our formal application filing late this year to meet our initial in-service date of 2018. The project is designed to add 900 million cubic feet per day of natural gas supplies to serve the region's power generators during cold winter periods. That will allow up to 5,000 additional megawatts of the region's most efficient and low-cost units to remain online when winter temperatures drop, saving New England customers approximately $1.5 billion to $2 billion in a typical winter, and approximately $3 billion in an extreme winter such as 2013, 2014. The Access Northeast builds off the existing Algonquin footprint, which already touches 60% of the power generation in New England, a percentage that will grow as new proposed plans are built. The project allows direct last mile deliveries to the power plants to ensure greater reliability and cost benefits. The business models that the electric utility signed pipeline capacity contracts for up to 20 years with Access Northeast and then retain an independent capacity manager to market that capacity to generators. Without Access Northeast, those generators are frequently unable to run their units during cold weather when the region's existing pipeline capacity is used primarily to heat homes and businesses. The large amount of new pipeline capacity is set aside to meet the needs of natural gas generators, we can depend less on more costly and higher-emitting coal and oil plants that typically run when the region's natural gas supplies run shot. We have made significant progress in the past three months. The status of securing approval of contracts with the wind and electric distribution companies is on slide 12. Following an RFP this past fall that attracted a number of bids, NSTAR Electric and Western Mass Electric filed with the Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities in December seeking approval of contracts for pipeline and storage capacity with Access Northeast. The two utilities asked for a decision by October 1 of this year. The National Grid's two Massachusetts electric distribution companies, Massachusetts Electric and Nantucket Electric, made a similar filing with the DPU on January 15. Once approved by the Department of Public Utilities, these contracts will account for nearly 45% of the Access Northeast targeted capacity. In Connecticut, the natural gas capacity RFP will be run the State Department of Energy and Environmental Protection, or DEEP. We expect this process to be complete later this year. In New Hampshire, the Public Utilities Commission issued an order on January 19 in which they accepted a staff report that concluded that the PUC had sufficient authority to approve electric distribution contracts for natural gas supplies if those contracts are shown to be in the customers' interest. If the PUC Commission has agreed with the staff that they have sufficient authority to approve such agreements, they would then determine whether the specific contracts submitted were in the customers' best interest. In Maine, where regulators have been engaged on the natural gas contracting issue for some time, bidders were given an opportunity to refresh their proposals in December. State regulators are scheduled to reach a decision on recommended solutions by mid-year. In Rhode Island, National Grid issued an RFP in November. At the same time, the Massachusetts electric distribution companies issued their RFP. We expect National Grid to make a decision and file in the coming months with Rhode Island. In the Vermont, the state has expressed support for additional natural gas infrastructure, but its level of participation has yet to be determined. We expect that the state processes will be concluded this fall so that we can file our formal application with FERC before the end of 2016. We continue to believe that Access Northeast offers an excellent near-term and long-term answer to the region's intensifying winter energy supply challenges. Now, I'd like to turn the call over to Jim.
James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thank you, Lee, and I'd also like to thank you all for joining us this morning. Turning to slide 14, I'll start by covering our financial and operating results for the fourth quarter and the year, our 2016 outlook and long-term EPS growth expectations through 2019, current regulatory developments in the absence of rate case activity for the next 12 to 18 months, and I'll conclude with a brief overview of how we've delivered on the commitments that we made to investors in recent years. Let's start with the fourth quarter. As you can see from slide 15, earnings, excluding integration costs, were $0.60 per share in the fourth quarter 2015 compared with earnings of $0.72 per share in the fourth quarter of last year. The $0.60 per share is consistent with the guidance that we gave on the third quarter earnings call and consistent with the updated Street estimates that have been published this year. Electric distribution and generation earnings declined by $0.07 per share to $0.28 per share in the fourth quarter 2015. Higher retail electric revenue, mostly due to the December 2014 Connecticut Light & Power distribution rate decision, added about $0.05 per share to earnings, but that impact was offset by higher property taxes and depreciation expense due to higher plant balances and higher amortization expense due to the amortization of CL&P's deferred storm balance. Earnings for NSTAR Electric and Public Service in New Hampshire, which do not have revenue decoupling, were lower due to milder weather. Earnings in this segment were also lower due to a higher effective tax rate in the fourth quarter of 2015 compared with the same period last year. On the consolidated basis, our effective tax rate was approximately 39.4% in the fourth quarter of 2015 compared with 35.4% in the fourth quarter a year ago. The higher rate lowered consolidated earnings in the quarter by about $0.04 per share. As expected, transmission earnings were down $0.03 per share in the fourth quarter of 2015 due to the absence of the fourth quarter 2014 reversal of a reserve related to FERC's review of the New England transmission ROEs. The historically mild temperatures this past December were the primary reason for a $13.2 million or $0.04 per share decline in our natural gas segment earnings. Lower natural gas revenues alone cost us $0.03 per share, despite having 2% more heating customers in the fourth quarter of 2015. Average temperatures in Boston and Hartford were 10 to 12 degrees warmer than average in December. As a result, our firm natural gas sales were down 16% in the fourth quarter of 2015 compared with a fairly mild fourth quarter of 2014. Parent and other improved by $0.02 per share compared with the fourth quarter of 2014. I'll now turn to full year results. Excluding integration charges, we earned $2.81 per share this year compared with $2.65 in 2014. 2015 results were consistent with our guidance of $2.80 to $2.85 per share and also consistent with recently updated Street estimates. As you can see in the news release, the most significant driver of earnings growth in 2015 was higher electric revenue, which added $0.39 per share to our results compared with last year. The primary driver was approximately $150 million distribution rate increase for Connecticut Light & Power. We also benefited from a 0.3% increase in retail electric sales. Those higher revenues were offset in part by higher property taxes, depreciation and the CL&P storm amortization expense in 2015. Higher electric transmission earnings also contributed to improved year end results. Our transmission segment earned $0.96 per share in 2015 compared with $0.93 in 2014, benefiting in part from a higher level of investment in the business. As a result of our robust capital program, our transmission rate base was approximately $5.2 billion at the end of 2015 compared with $4.9 billion at the end of 2014. Those benefits were partially offset by FERC's decision last year to lower the base transmission ROE in New England to 10.57% from the previous 11.14% and to cap our ROEs on any reliability project, regardless of previously approved incentives at 11.74%. As we've said in the past, those changes have reduced our effective transmission ROE, including incentives, to approximately 11.5%. Turning to our natural gas distribution business, after a very strong start, our year end 2015 results were almost identical to those that we recorded in 2014. For the year, due to the warm fourth quarter, firm natural gas sales were down 1% after being up 8.4% in the first quarter of 2015. On a weather-normalized basis, sales rose 2.5% for the year. Parent and other results were down $0.01 for the year. Two other items worth mentioning in 2015 were the benefits of lower O&M and the negative impact of a higher effective tax rate. Lower non-tracked O&M added $0.08 to earnings in 2015. This follows a $0.23 per share benefit in 2014 and a $0.05 per share benefit in 2013. Altogether, we have reduced our O&M by about $250 million since the merger closed in 2012. Offsetting much of that benefit was a higher effective tax rate in 2015, which lowered earnings by about $0.06 per share as compared with the previous year. So, in spite of the warm fourth quarter, we were still able to grow earnings for the year by $0.16 per share or 6% in 2015. Turning from the financial slide to operations, as you can see on slide 16, our key reliability statistics have dramatically improved and are record levels, as Tom mentioned. Since 2011, the number of months between interruptions and the speed of restoration when outages do occur have both improved by about 40%. We are well up in the top quartile of our peers, so very proud of this accomplishment. This closes our 2015 discussion. Let's move on to 2016. On slide 17, you can see we've established an earnings per share range of $2.90 to $3.05 this year. The biggest year-over-year benefit will come from growth of our transmission rate base. The second biggest positive driver will be the natural gas segment. We expect that segment to benefit from a continued increase in natural gas heating customers, various capital initiatives for which we have trackers, and a $15.8 million base rate increase that was effective at NSTAR Gas on January 1 of this year. Other drivers include lower O&M. In the first quarter of this year, we will migrate our legacy payroll and benefits system to a single IT platform, which we've already done with our accounting and our outage management systems. Consolidating to a single system is expected to significantly improve efficiency and lower cost in the future. Offsetting these benefits are continued increases in depreciation, property taxes and modestly higher interest costs, reflecting continued investment in our distribution systems. From 2016, let's turn to the longer term in slide 18. We estimate that we can grow earnings per share by 5% to 7% annually over the 2015 to 2019 forecast period. This compares with our previous growth rate of 6% to 8% for the 2014 to 2018 period. Nearly all of that change is attributable to the five-year extension of bonus depreciation for tax purposes recently passed by Congress. We estimate that bonus depreciation alone is lowering our growth rate by approximately 1%. Components of the 5% to 7% growth are similar to what has driven the 7.2% annual earnings growth since our 2012 merger. We've also noted our key assumptions about major projects, which include the completion of Northern Pass in 2019 and the construction of Access Northeast in 2018 and 2019. Because significant Access Northeast construction is expected to continue beyond our forecast period, we anticipate that it'll contribute to earnings growth in both 2020 and 2021 as well. Electric transmission capital expenditures and rate base growth are the primary drivers of our attractive earnings growth projection. Turning to slide 19, you can see that capital expenditure projections are up significantly from the forecast we showed you a year ago. To begin, I should note that our transmission capital expenditures totaled $807 million in 2015. That's about $67 million above our projection at this time last year. We now show nearly $5 billion of electric transmission investment from 2015 through 2019. As we do every year, we have again identified transmission investments that we didn't have in the plan one year ago. We've added about $800 million of new investment, $200 million of that increase involves our previously announced increase in the Northern Pass project. We are projecting transmission capital expenditures of $911 million in 2016, $880 million of which will be spent on reliability related transmission projects at our four regulated electric companies. Two of the largest initiatives, the Greater Boston and Greater Hartford projects, involve dozens of individual projects and are described more fully in the transmission slides in our Appendix. Those expenditures are helping to drive the significant improvements in reliability and transmission earnings growth in 2016. You can see that we expect little capital spending on Northern Pass in 2016, but considerable expenditures in 2017 and 2018, consistent with the schedule that Lee gave you earlier. These capital expenditure projections do not reflect our spending on the Clean Energy Connect project Lee discussed earlier, which we expect to contribute to earnings growth from 2018 to 2021. We continue to work on both Clean Energy Connect and other potential projects that we expect to be approved. As a result, the arrow on the slides shows that we do not expect a significant decline in transmission spending in 2019, but we have not included all of the potential projects that are likely to be built that year. Because we are in a competitive bidding process, we are not providing a total cost of the Clean Energy Connect project or a year-by-year estimate for capital expenditures. We hope to provide that to you should the project be selected. Let's turn to slide 20. On the left-hand side, this slide shows our capital program, excluding both Access Northeast and Clean Energy Connect. From 2016 through 2019, we expect to invest $9.2 billion in New England's energy infrastructure, including $3.9 billion in transmission that I mentioned earlier. You can see that electric and natural gas distribution capital totaled about $1.2 billion every year during that period. A slide in the appendix shows that investments in our natural gas delivery system will comprise a rising percentage of that investment. On the right-hand side, we have estimated the pace of our $1.2 billion projected investment in the Access Northeast project, which costs a total of $3 billion. Our FERC application indicates that elements of Access Northeast will be phased into service between late 2018 and 2021. On slide 21, we illustrate how the composition of our rate base is expected to change by the end of 2019. About $2.5 billion of the $3.6 billion of rate base growth over the next four years is expected to come from electric transmission. By the end of 2019, we expect that electric transmission will comprise 42% of our total rate base. And if our Access Northeast and Clean Energy Connect investments were included, it puts us at nearly 50% FERC-regulated company by the end of 2019. We believe that this rising percentage of FERC investments will result in an increasing ROE for Eversource Energy as a whole. Slide 22 shows various initiatives that we expect to continue beyond our current four-year forecast. As I said earlier, we expect significant expenditures on Access Northeast, Clean Energy Connect and other projects we're working on. We also expect continued work on modernizing the electric grid in Massachusetts, assuming our $430 million five-year plan and capital tracker are approved by the state regulators we expect later this year. A lot of initiatives are primarily tied to growing our natural gas distribution business. Turning to slide 23, you can see that despite declining oil prices, we added 11,415 new natural gas customers in 2015. This is about 7.5% ahead of 2014 and 4% ahead of our target for the year. The slide shows that we expect new heating customer growth to continue to accelerate over our forecast period and eventually reach about 16,000 per year, significantly aided by legislatively-endorsed initiatives in both Connecticut and Massachusetts. In 2016, we're projecting approximately 12,500 new natural gas heating customers, and Tom mentioned that one month into the year we're on plan. Slide 24 reviews two important regulatory items that are currently pending. Hearings on the divestiture of our New Hampshire generation fleet were completed this week and we expect a decision within the next two months. Last week, a settlement was filed with certain advisory staff at the New Hampshire PUC, who had earlier supported a delay to the sale. They now support near-term divestiture. Should the New Hampshire PUC authorize the divestiture, we expect the sale process and securitization to be completed later this year and early next year. As a reminder, we expect full recovery of approximately $700 million invested in New Hampshire generation by early 2017. In December, the FERC Administrative Law Judge handling the second and third New England transmission ROE complaints requested some additional briefing on an aspect of the second complaint. So an initial recommendation by that ALJ was delayed from December 2015 to the end of March 2016. Because of that three month delay by the ALJ, we now expect to receive a decision from FERC on the two complaints in either late 2016 or early 2017. As you can see on slide 25, we have no general rate cases currently pending for any of our six regulated distribution utilities. And while we do expect rate case activity next year, we expect that any decisions would not impact our financial results until the end of 2017 or early 2018. So we have very good visibility into our distribution company results for the next two years. Turning to this year's financing calendar, 2016 is likely to be similar to last year. One benefit of bonus depreciation, of course, is that it lowers our cash tax obligation. In 2016, we will receive an estimated $250 million to $300 million in refunds from taxes paid in 2015. Additionally, we expect our cash tax liability for 2016 to be lowered by approximately $300 million as well. In 2017, bonus depreciation is estimated to lower our cash tax obligation by another $300 million. Slide 26 shows the current distribution of S&P's electric utility credit ratings, with Eversource as the only A-rated parent company as a result of our upgrade last year. We've also noted on the slide several positive outlooks on other subsidiaries at both Fitch and Moody's. Slide 27 shows the relative price performance of Eversource's shares versus the S&P 500 and the UTY, since our merger was announced more than four years ago. We're very proud of our total shareholder return, as well as our strong credit ratings. We strongly believe that financial strength and attractive shareholder returns can certainly both coexist and do at Eversource. Slide 28 sums up what we have delivered to customers, policymakers and investors over the past four years. We committed that we'd exceed industry earnings per share and dividend growth rates and we delivered with growth rates that are two times the industry average for three years. We targeted O&M reductions of 3% to 4% and we achieved 5% per year for three years on average. We said we'd maintain the strong financial condition. We've done better than maintain. Three upgrades since the merger announcement has us with the only single A credit in our industry. We committed to top-tier service and reliability, a 40% improvement in reliability has us now consistently in the top-quartile of our peers. We committed to grow and leverage our transmission and gas business. This morning, we've discussed the great portfolio of projects that will continue that great growth. And finally, advancing energy policy in the region, our Access Northeast project, Northern Pass and Clean Energy Connect are game changers, cost effectively advancing the region's carbon reduction agenda effectively. Eversource continues to be a very attractive offering for investors and we're confident it will continue to be in the years ahead. Now, I'll turn the call back to Jeff.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thank you, Jim. And I'm going to turn the call back to John just to remind you how to enter questions. John?
Operator:
Thank you. We'll now begin the question-and-answer session.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
All right. Thank you, John. First question this morning is from Greg Gordon from Evercore ISI. Good morning, Greg.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Good morning, guys. So, this whole bonus depreciation thing is a high-class problem, obviously significantly increases the cash flow even though it's a bit dilutive to rate base growth. But I'm just wondering, you said that the vast majority of the reduction in the growth rate is due to bonus and yet you've also significantly increased your capital expenditure budget, so, algebraically, that means that the overall growth rate is more than 1% lower before the offset of the higher capital plan. So, is bonus, in fact, the sole driver of that or are there other factors?
James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
No. I would say that bonus is the sole driver of it. The numbers that I mentioned, Greg, $300 million a year, obviously the pancaking impact of that, when you look at 2015, 2016, 2017 and beyond, has a significant impact on our cumulative deferred income taxes, and we're obviously a purely regulated T&D company. So, it does impact our ability to earn. And I've seen a number of estimates out there where companies have – analysts have estimated that it's about a 1% increase on a company – decrease on a company like Eversource. I would tell you this that, as you well know, that we have a long track record, Tom and I, 20 years of delivering on guidance either meeting or exceeding it. And the other thing that I've mention is we tend to provide data to the Street, forecasted data, capital expenditure data, that ties out to the dollar to projects that we have in the queue. So, we have obviously updated the forecast for the projects that we have and the impact has been of a 5% to 7% growth rate is a better guidance for Wall Street, a more credible guidance than the 6% to 8% that we had previously. That being said, I'll tell you that a year ago, we didn't provide capital expenditure numbers for Access Northeast and look how long that project – how far along that project has come. Three months ago at our third quarter call, we didn't provide any guidance. Clean Energy Connect wasn't even mentioned as a project and we now have that before the regulator to be approved. So, we tend to find projects going forward. We don't put them into our plan until they're real. So, I think we have a very credible 5% to 7%, with some upside going forward.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Yeah. I agree. One last question. Are you electing to take bonus on Northern Pass, or are you going to choose to not take bonus on that particular project?
James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
We have customers paying for it and it's largely a FERC type of formula and cost recovery mechanism. So, we would expect the benefits of bonus depreciation to be shared with customers.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Okay. Thank you, guys. Have a good morning.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Yeah. Thanks, Greg. Next question is from Dan Eggers from Credit Suisse. Good morning, Dan.
Daniel L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Hey. Good morning, guys. Just following up on Greg's question on the bonus depreciation side. You think about in 2016 and 2017, you'll bring in about $900 million of bonus cash and then you've got the proceeds from the New Hampshire sale or securitization coming in probably early 2017. How are you guys thinking about kind of using that incremental pile of cash relative to old expectations where you didn't need equity without having that cash coming?
James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Well, we still don't need equity. And that's obviously cash that can be redeployed towards projects. That's capital. That's shareholder capital. And if it turns out that we can't redeploy it towards new projects, we certainly would consider giving it back to shareholders in the form of increased dividends or more effectively through a share buyback, if need be.
Daniel L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
I mean, I guess, how are you accounting for that extra cash in the growth rate? Are you assuming that it kind of accumulates on the balance sheet or is that – is there some redeployment assumption in the underlying growth rate?
James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
In the underlying growth rate, we actually are very, very cash strong. And so, again, absent another project to invest it in, we assume a share buyback would be the best application of it.
Daniel L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Okay. And I guess, Tom, the merger has been very successful for you, guys. You've executed on what you had laid out when you did the deal, had a very convenient name change along the way. How do you think about M&A at this juncture? And given your success thus far, is this something you could take on the road again?
Thomas J. May - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
We have a very strong company. We are also in a very exciting place in New England. You get a sense of what – you have a sense of what we're telling you and you don't a sense it's on our to-do list, but there is a lot happening in New England and it's pretty exciting. And that's why, as Jim said, we'll have fun with capital allocations. We hope there are more and more projects to deploy our excess capital in, but if not, we're very flexible and we're very shareholder-oriented. On the M&A side, I'll just say that we've always been big believers that consolidation in our industry makes sense. However, we have also been very selective with respect to what makes sense for our shareholders and for our customers. And we do believe that, and I think we've proved it over the years that you can actually spend less money operating a business and provide world-class service and improve service along the way by using size and scale and technology. But things are pretty overheated right now. We do believe that you go through ebbs and flows. There'll be opportunities. Right now, we're focused on executing the plan we put in front of you.
Daniel L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Got it. Thank you, guys.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thanks, Dan. Our next question is from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from UBS. Good morning, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Good morning. Can you hear me?
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Yeah, absolutely.
Thomas J. May - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Excellent. So, I wanted to dig in a little bit more on the Clean Energy Connect. Admittedly, I know it might be challenging. But first, just to get a sense, is this connected to firm renewables back in New York? Just could you talk about the project a little bit just in terms of how we should think about it? And then on the financials, if you can elaborate, is it accruing AFUDC, whatever construct you've devised with your partners? And then in terms of the return, would it be fair to continue to say, this is a FERC like return on a typical equity ratios we think about, at least preliminarily the $400 million you've contemplated?
Leon J. Olivier - EVP-Enterprise Energy Strategy and Business Development:
Yeah, Julien. This is Lee Olivier. Yeah, in regards to the project itself, it really is designed around getting existing run-of-river renewable plans that are in place in New York and building new wind, and as you can see from our partners from Iberdrola, EDP would build new wind. And getting that combined power, so you can firm up the wind with the hydropower such that when you have a transmission line going into New England, you have 100% deliverability into the region and you have very, very high capacity factors of utilization across that line to the extent of 80% to 90% utilization. It would accrue AFUDC and it would garner FERC-like returns.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Got it. All right. Excellent. And then just turning over to the conversions – the oil conversion side of the equation, I'd just be curious, you talked about continued strength, particularly on the back of your reasonable winter thus far, moderate, shall we say, but what's the normalized trend of late? I'd be curious, given how low oil prices are of late, is there something to be concerned about as we think about a more normalized weather pattern for the next 2016, 2017 winter that we should be thinking about a slowdown at all?
James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
No. I mean, the forecast that we've provided on slide 23, we continue to be comfortable with. If you look at each of the years, 2013, 2014, and 2015, we exceeded the targets that we have provided. And even given the dramatic reduction in oil prices that existed for most of 2015, we have great opportunity, primarily because of a lack of penetration down in Connecticut. It's significantly underpenetrated and we feel pretty good about our target for 2016 and achieving it as well.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
So, perhaps said differently, the penetration level was such that there are still clear economic benefits for customers to continue to switch at the same pace they have, or at least you're confident in the ability to garner the same conversion pace that you have historically?
James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
I think the payback for a conversion is more challenging than it was a year or two ago, but we've got some more aggressive marketing and the carbon benefits of gas versus oil are compelling to customers as well. So, I'm not going to suggest that it's not more challenging than it was a year or two ago, but we still feel pretty good about our ability to execute.
Thomas J. May - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
It's interesting. Anything is new construction anywhere on our territory. They want natural gas for heating. It actually adds value to the house. There are studies that shown that the houses are selling for $10,000 or $20,000 more, if instead of having an old oil tank on your property, you have a pipe that without trucks pulling up and down your street. But we're seeing lots of communities that are actually encouraging us to come in and help them reduce their carbon footprint. We call it the three Ps. They don't require us to make permit fees. They don't require us to have police details, and what's – on paving. They don't make us pave curb to curb. Typically when you go in and cut a street to put a pipe down in for a neighborhood, they want you to pave curb to curb. They'll say, hey, we'll let you patch that cut and therefore reduce the price to come in and bring this gas to our neighbor. So, interestingly, the demand is still there, but as you say, the payback for a customer is quite different and therefore, you have to find different ways to turn it into a monthly payment rather than a big lump sum.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
And then last, a quick clarification, is the 5% to 7%, the Clean Energy Connect, is it in there and how do you think about it?
James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
It is in there, but again, the CapEx spend there is $18 million to $21 million. So, it doesn't move the dial much one way or another. It's a small piece of the financials out in 2018, 2019.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Fair enough. Thank you.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thanks, Julien. Next question is from Travis Miller from Morningstar. Good morning, Travis.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Research:
Good morning. Thank you. I was wondering as we talk more about these renewables, they look three to five years out, obviously you have a lot of transmission spend opportunity. So I was wondering if you could elaborate on potential upside for the distribution side of the electric. Distribution side, is there upside in your plan? Is there additional in terms of integrating all of that renewable energy that will come in through the transmission projects?
James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Sure. Travis, this is Jim. We mentioned that we spend about $1.2 billion a year on the distribution system, that's gas and electric, but in particular, we have a slide that references this grid modernization plan. It's $430 million of spending over the next five years. Included in there is advanced sensing technology, a next generation fault circuit indications, and those sorts of things, but a good part of the spend there has to do with making it easier for distributed resources to be tapped into the system and provided for. So, that's a filing that's before the regulator in Massachusetts currently and we expect the plan to be approved later this year.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Research:
Okay. That's all I had. Thank you.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thanks, Travis. Our next question is from Shar Pourreza from Guggenheim. Good morning, Shar.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Partners:
Hey, Jeff. Hey. Good morning, everyone.
Thomas J. May - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Partners:
So just real quick question on the growth. So, you kind of had the regulatory mechanisms at the utilities and you sort of assume Northern Pass and Access Northeast are on schedule. So, what's sort of the driver to get you to the top end or exceed your updated growth trajectory, or sort of how should we think about the bottom or top end of that range?
James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Well, what I would say, Shar, is that, obviously, if all the projects go forward as planned, we would be higher in that 5% to 7% range, but I do think that we have some flexibility in that range, such that if one of the projects didn't go forward, I think we'd still be able to achieve the lower end of that range.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Partners:
Okay. Got it. So if your projects are on schedule, you can essentially hit the mid-point of your old range?
James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Or beyond.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Partners:
Excellent. Thanks.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thanks, Shar. Next question's from Mike Lapides from Goldman. Good morning, Mike.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Hey, guys. Good morning. A couple of housekeeping-related questions. First of all, in 2016 guidance, what are you assuming for O&M cost management on controllable O&M?
James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Michael, this is Jim. We are basically providing estimates of 2% to 3% long-term and there'll be some variability year-to-year. We're not giving a spot-specific number for 2016, but you've seen our performance to-date and you can assume that that 2% to 3%, you can take to the bank.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Well, I mean, actually, you've done a really good job of just completely blowing right past that 2% to 3% a year in the first couple of years post-merger. Just trying to get my arms around what would drive a fundamental slowdown in the O&M cost savings or are you just being a little bit on the conservative side about your ability to manage cost structure post-merger?
James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Well, we've been giving guidance historically of 3% to 4% and we've exceeded it. So 2% to 3%, I guess, reflects a little bit of a slowdown, but we do see ample opportunity. Eventually, you go from merger synergies, which I think we've largely achieved, into achieving savings just by good cost discipline across the organization. And that's the phase that we're in now. Tom and I mentioned some of the IT system conversions that are taking place currently that will fuel savings going forward. And our operations area, the standardization that takes place is assured to provide us some additional savings. So we feel good about it, but obviously the 2% to 3% is an indication that it has tempered a little bit from what we've got the first few years.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. And can you frame for us a little bit just the difference in the second and third FERC ROE complaints relative to the one that already lowered your ROE? And if so, what's kind of the – if complainants get what they ask for or if staff gets what they're kind of nodding towards? What the impact on earnings power and the growth rate would be?
James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Well, the filings that we've made, the initial briefs that were filed and updated at FERC, the position of the New England transmissions owners is that, if you do the math, similar to what was done by FERC in complaint number one, that the ROE would be 10.24%. And if you did the math the same way for complaint number three, it will be 10.9%. If you average those two, you get to where we at currently, 10.57%. So, we would expect and hope that FERC would realize that there hasn't been a dramatic change in what they approved over a year ago in terms of a base ROE. The same logic applies on the cap as well. The 11.74% sits well within what the math would show from applying the new methodology at FERC to the timeframes that were considered for complaint two or three. Obviously, there's a series of conflicting testimony, I guess, from the consumer advocates groups and from FERC staff that would have slightly lower numbers, but we feel pretty good about our prospects in terms of the case that were presented.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. Thanks, guys. Much appreciated and congrats on a good year.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thanks, Michael. Next question's from Praful Mehta from Citi. Good morning, Praful.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Good morning. Hi, guys. So, I just had two quick questions. One was on Northern Pass. And just want to understand, if there were delays in the Northern Pass, CapEx plan and implementation, are there other levers to fill the hole in terms of EPS, or is there going to be an impact to EPS, as you see it today?
James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. This is Jim, Praful. As I mentioned, we come up with projects that we don't even have on the drawing board. We're looking at other projects currently. And you're asking me if Northern Pass, the $1.6 billion, was significantly delayed, what would we backfill it with? I would assume that by the time we get out to 2017, 2018 and 2019, there will be new projects, but right now, they have not been defined. I haven't reached the stage where we would include them in our plan.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Fair enough. Got it. And secondly, in terms of capital allocation, you've talked about excess the cash that you have, the bonus depreciation, and one of the options could be share buybacks. From a timing perspective, how do you see that decision playing out? Do you kind of wait and see if you have new projects in 2016, 2017? And if you don't, and if you have excess cash, you do the buyback? I'm just trying to figure out how does that sequence of events go and when does that decision take place to actually do buybacks.
James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. We will look at that on a year-to-year basis. Obviously, we have not announced a share buyback. We don't anticipate one in 2016. We think we have potential application of this excess cash in years beyond that. But if we don't, it's clearly capital that deservedly would go back to shareholders and we consider a share buyback, but it's basically a year-to-year decision.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Got you. Thank you, guys.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thank you. Our next question's from Steve Fleishman from Wolfe. Good morning, Steve.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Hi. Good morning. Just briefly in the context of the bonus depreciation and the plan that you're giving us, maybe you could just talk about how the balance sheet or cash flow metrics look under this plan as it is versus maybe you had before to kind of fill in the whole picture.
James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Well, we certainly think that the cash flow numbers improved, given the bonus depreciation, the lack of tax payments that need to be made. We fully expect to maintain the strong single-A credit that we have achieved to-date. So, I think the credit metrics would reflect that.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. Thank you.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
All right. Thanks, Steve. We don't have any more questions this morning, so we want to thank you very much for joining us. If you have any follow-up questions, please give us a call. Thanks and enjoy the rest of the winter. We'll see you at a couple of the conferences.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. That concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President Leon J. Olivier - EVP-Energy Strategy & Business Development
Analysts:
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker) Travis Miller - Morningstar Research Caroline V. Bone - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC Andrew M. Weisel - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.
Operator:
Welcome to the Eversource Energy Third Quarter Earnings Call. My name is Brandon, and I will be your operator for today. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later we will conduct a question-and-answer session. Please note that this conference is being recorded. And I will now turn the call over to Mr. Jeff Kotkin. You may begin, sir.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thank you, Brandon. Good morning and thank you for joining us. I'm Jeff Kotkin, Eversource Energy's Vice President for Investor Relations. Some of the statements made during this investor call may be forward-looking as defined within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risk and uncertainty, which may cause the actual results to differ materially from forecasts and projections. Some of these factors are set forth in the news release issued yesterday. Additional information about the various factors that may cause actual results to differ can be found in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2014 and our quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the three months ended June 30, 2015. Additionally, our explanation of how and why we use certain non-GAAP measures is contained within our news release and the slides we posted last night on our website under Presentations and Webcasts and in our most recent 10-K and 10-Q. Speaking today will be Jim Judge, our Executive Vice President and CFO; and Lee Olivier, our Executive Vice President for Enterprise Energy Strategy and Business Development. Also joining us today are Werner Schweiger, our Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, Phil Lembo, our Vice President and Treasurer; Jay Buth, our Vice President and Controller; and John Moreira, our Vice President of Financial Planning and Analysis. Now I will turn over the call to Jim.
James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thank you, Jeff, and thank you all for joining us this morning. Today I will cover our third quarter financial results, which were in line with our guidance range for the full year and update on several legislative and regulatory items and I'll close with an update on certain transmission projects. Let me start with slide four and our financial results. Excluding integration costs, we earned $237.6 million or $0.75 per share in the third quarter of 2015, identical to our earnings in the third quarter of 2014 and in line with Wall Street's expectations. Over the first nine months of 2015, we earned $704.5 million or $2.21 per share excluding integration costs compared with earnings of $611.3 million or $1.93 per share in the first nine months of 2014. As a result of our strong results to-date and our current expectations for the fourth quarter, we have narrowed our full-year earnings projection to $2.80 to $2.85 per share from $2.75 to $2.90 per share. Turning to slide five. The most significant driver in the third quarter was higher retail electric revenues. This reflects the outcome of last year's Connecticut Light & Power distribution rate case and hotter third quarter weather in 2015, the latter of which benefited the distribution results at NSTAR Electric and Public Service of New Hampshire. Cooling degree days in Boston were up about 29% for the current quarter compared to the same period last year and in Concord, New Hampshire they were up nearly 60%. You will recall that Connecticut Light & Power and Western Mass Electric both have implemented revenue decoupling so they did not benefit from the 4.5% increase in retail electric sales that we experienced across the system this summer. Also benefiting us in the quarter was low O&M which added $0.02 per share to earnings. Offsetting these gains were higher property taxes, depreciation and amortization expense, which has been a $0.06 per share drag on earnings every quarter this year. We also had lower results in our transmission segment and in our parent and other segments. Both segments were each down about $0.04 per share as a result of a higher effective tax rate. In the case of transmission, it was due to certain state income tax benefits in the third quarter of 2014 that did not recur this year. At the parent, as we mentioned in the earnings news release it was the result of adjusting income tax expense to what was actually filed with our corporate tax return in the third quarter. Turning to slide six, for the nine period higher electric revenues have added $0.34 per share to earnings. Again, this was primarily the result of the Connecticut Light & Power distribution rate case and to a lesser extent a weather driven 1.8% increase in retail sales. On a weather adjusted basis, retail sales were up 0.1% through the first nine months of the year which is consistent with our guidance. Also benefiting year-to-date results were higher transmission segment earnings that added $0.05 per share and are due to a combination of a higher level of investment in our system and a lower level of charges related to FERC's ongoing review of the New England transmission owners return on equity. Offsetting the impact of those benefits was the higher effective tax rate mentioned previously. Year-to-date, gas segment earnings are up $13.3 million or 30% compared with the same period of 2014. The year-to-date improvement is related primarily to a 4.8% increase in retail sales. About half of that sales increase is the result of the bitter cold weather that we had in the first quarter and the other half is related to growth in the business with weather adjusted firm natural gas sales up 2.5% through September. Through September 30 of this year, we've added nearly 8,000 residential heating customers compared with just over 7,100 during the same period last year. On the non-residential, side which includes commercial, industrial and municipal customers, we've added 710 customers through September, about a 4% increase over the same nine-months of last year. In terms of costs, lower non-tracked O&M has been a $0.10 per share benefit on a year-to-date basis. We are currently doing somewhat better than expected in non-tracked O&M expense. This primarily reflects a decline in labor and labor related costs and lower bad debt expense. Some of this is timing, so we anticipate some portion of this lower than expected O&M will turnaround next quarter. Also as I mentioned on our July earnings call, the reduction in total O&M that you'll see in our income statement in the 10-Q is heightened by the sale earlier this year of E.S. Boulos, an electrical contracting company. That accounted for about $42 million of cost reductions, but that did not help the bottom-line since we lost a similar amount of revenue. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, we expect the impact of higher effective tax rate to continue. In 2014, our effective tax rate for the full year was about 36%. This year we expect the full year rate to be between 37.5% and 38%. Additionally, you will recall that in the fourth quarter of last year we recognized a higher equity return on our transmission assets for the refund period related to our interpretation of the FERC decision on the New England transmission ROEs. Because we don't expect to have a similar impact in the fourth impact this year we expect recurring earnings in the fourth quarter to be between $0.59 and $0.64 per share compared with $0.72 per share in the fourth quarter of 2014. We have narrowed our full year recurring earnings guidance to between $2.80 and $2.85 per share. This guidance shows solid earnings growth for the year and is very consistent with our targeted long term annual growth rate of 6% to 8%. In terms of operations, our electric and natural gas delivery systems have performed very well through September 30th. Our electric reliability metrics which represent the average number of months between interruptions and outage duration continue to track very favorably. As previously reported, our reliability for 2014 was the best ever. In 2015 is tracking even better again, so potentially another record year. In fact, looking at our performance long term, we have experienced more than a 50% improvement in reliability over the past five years, the highest performance level ever for our systems. Turing to regulatory items in slide seven, NSTAR Gas is our distribution company with a rate case this year. On Friday October 30, the Massachusetts DPU issued an order approving a $15.8 million increase in NSTAR Gas base distribution rates effective January 1, 2016. The decision approved revenue decoupling, a 9.8% ROE, a 52.1% equity ratio and a rate base of $475 million. We continue to review the decision, but consider it a reasonable outcome. Also in Massachusetts, in August, we and the state's other electric utilities filed DPU requested proposals to modernize the state's electric grid. A five-year plan recommends a wide range of enhancements that among other initiatives would increase the integration and resilience of the grid and will provide customers an option to access advanced meters and provide them an opportunity to sign up for time varying rates. The spending associated with our five-year proposal would be about $430 million, mostly capital investment, beginning in 2017. The spending would be incremental to our previously disclosed forecasts. Recovery of our investments with the return would be accomplished through a new cost tracker. We expect the DPU to act on our proposal next year. In New Hampshire, hearings before the New Hampshire PUC on the divestiture of our power plants have been moved from December to January due to a lengthier discovery process. We expect a Commission decision in the first quarter of 2016, completion of the plant sale by the end of 2016 and the securitization process completed in early 2017. Now turning to slide eight, I'll provide a brief update on some significant transmission projects. Our share of the Interstate Reliability Project in northeastern Connecticut is now 99.5% complete, with the final cost we continue to estimate at $218 million. We have also filed with the Connecticut Siting Council for five of the 27 projects included in the $350 million Greater Hartford set of solutions. All five, including three substation projects, have now been approved by the Siting Council and are under construction. Together those five projects under construction totaled about $100 million. We continue to estimate that all Greater Hartford projects will be completed by the end of 2018. In Massachusetts, we have increased our projected expenditures on the Greater Boston Reliability Solution from $490 million to $544 million. As you can see from the slide, we have filed five Siting applications to-date and expect to be working on related projects through 2018 and into 2019. Most recently, an application for a new 345kV line from Woburn to Wakefield was filed with the Massachusetts Energy Facilities Siting Board by Eversource and National Grid on September 25. It is currently estimated to cost $107 million. All together, our capital expenditures totaled $1.3 billion in the first nine months of the year, $522 million of which was spent on our electric transmission system. At this point last year, our capital expenditures totaled $1.1 billion, of which $459 million was spent on transmission. So you can see we continue to raise our level of investment in our electric and natural gas delivery systems. We continue to project total capital expenditures of $1.85 billion this year and we'll update our projections for the four years beginning with 2016 during our year-end call in February. That concludes my formal remarks. As always, next week we will be attending the EEI Financial Conference and I hope to see many of you there. Now I'll turn the call over to Lee.
Leon J. Olivier - EVP-Energy Strategy & Business Development:
Okay. Thanks, Jim. I'll provide you with a brief update on our major capital initiatives and then return the call back to Jeff for Q&As. Let's start with Northern Pass in slide 10. On August 18, we announced our Forward New Hampshire Plan, which included substantial revisions to our recommended route. Most of those route changes involve the central section of the project where we are now proposing to build 52 miles of the project underground rather than overhead along existing transmission rights of way. We've also downsized the project from 1,200 megawatts to 1,090 megawatts as a result of our plans to use a different DC technology that carries less power, but is less costly to install. For much of the overhead section, we are also proposing to use many more (14:58) rather than traditional lattice towers to reduce the visual impact. Additionally, as part of our Forward New Hampshire Plan, we announced our intent to provide $200 million of support to the state over the next 20 years to support important initiatives in tourism, economic development, community investment and clean energy innovation, should Northern Pass be built and placed into operation. We had a very positive reaction to the Forward New Hampshire Plan, which has now been endorsed by a wide range of business, labor and political leaders, both state and municipal, in New Hampshire. We held five public meetings on the project in the state in early September and filed our siting application with the New Hampshire Site Evaluation Committee on October 19. The filing highlights the significant direct benefits the project will bring to New Hampshire which we estimate to be more than $3 billion, they include $80 million per year of lower energy costs over the next 10 years, $30 million per year of increased property tax revenues and $2 billion of increased economic activity driven in part by the creation of 2,400 jobs during the construction period. The benefits also include reducing the region's carbon emissions by approximately 3 million tons per year. We have illustrated the carbon reduction requirements of the three states we serve on slide 11. The challenge the region faces meeting those requirements were were made more difficult last month, when Entergy announced that it will retire the Pilgrim Nuclear Power plant no later than June of 2019. That shutdown in and itself is expected to increase carbon emissions by 2 million tons to 3 million tons a year. The closure of Vermont Yankee nearly a year ago increased carbon emissions by a similar amount. This is a particular issue for Massachusetts which is targeting a greenhouse gas emissions goal of 71 million tons by 2025, a reduction of 23 million tons from the 94 million tons emitted in 1990. Massachusetts plans to achieve 10 million tons of that reduction from the electric power sector and more than half of that is expected to come from the new clean energy sources such as Canadian hydropower, but the state's efforts will clearly be challenged by the impact of Pilgrim's retirement. Governor Baker filed legislation this past summer that calls on the state to purchase up to 18.9 million megawatt hours annually of clean hydroelectric power and other renewable energy. That equates to about 2,400 megawatts of capacity. He personally testified on behalf of the bill in September. We will closely monitor its progress. All of these developments point to the significant need the region has for Northern Pass, which would represent the largest single new source of clean, firm power available to the region. Turning to slide 12, let's talk about our next steps on Northern Pass. On the state side the New Hampshire SEC has until mid-December to determine whether the application we filed last month is complete. Once it makes that finding, the Site Evaluation Committee will then have up to 12 months to conclude its review and vote on the project application. During that period, we will continue to boost significant opportunities for public input. Early in that 12-month review process Northern Pass will host another round of public information sessions about the project and the New Hampshire SEC will hold its own round of public comment sessions. The state process will run in parallel to the Federal process. The DOE is currently preparing a supplement to the Draft EIS to reflect the changes we announced on August 18, and has indicated that it will complete that supplement this month. As a result, we expect the DOE to hold public hearings in New Hampshire in December to receive public inputs on the Draft EIS. DOE already has asked that written comments on the draft be filed by the end of this year. With that information in hand the DOE will work to finalize the EIS perhaps in the third quarter of next year and later issue a Presidential permit for the project. We believe that the Federal permit issuance will occur shortly after the state process concludes to ensure that the permits reflect the same project configuration as approved by the state of New Hampshire. We expect to commence construction activities in early 2017 and largely conclude them around the end of 2018. As I've said previously, final testing of the project is expected in the spring of 2019 when electric loads in New England and Québec are relatively low. As we announced in mid-October, we expect the project to cost approximately $1.6 billion, somewhat higher than our $1.4 billion price tag we noted previously. This is due largely to the additional excavation cost associated with the incremental undergrounding. You have probably seen multiple comments from Hydro-Québec since July, reiterating their support for this project and noting that they have commenced siting activities for their transmission and substation construction on their side of the border. Our partnership remains extremely strong because of the enormous benefits this project brings to both sides of the border. As we have discussed previously, we expect Northern Pass to bid into the joint clean energy RFP that Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island first announced in February. As you can see on slide 13, Rhode Island regulators approved the RFP for issuance in September and the Massachusetts DPU approved it last week. Once the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection signs off on the RFP, we expect it will be issued promptly. Once the RFP is issued, we expect the states will look for bids within approximately 75 days with an evaluation period to follow. We are very optimistic about the chances of Northern Pass in such a competitive solicitation. Turning to Northern Pass to our other large project Access Northeast in slide 14, we and our partners Spectra Energy and National Grid will submit our pre-filing application with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission later today. The filing will describe the scope of the project and will commence a dialog between the project, FERC staff and key stakeholders in the process which includes soliciting public comment. Both Access Northeastern and Northern Pass are critical projects in our region's efforts to address serious infrastructure challenges that are driving up wintertime energy cost and challenging grid reliability and our ability to meet legislatively established renewable energy and carbon reduction targets. Access Northeast will allow us to keep 5,000 megawatts of efficient natural gas generation online even during the coldest winter evenings. As you recall, the primary business model for Access Northeast is that the region's electric distribution companies will continue – will contract for long-term natural gas capacity and then hire a third party to resell the capacity in the short term market to generators. Together the expansion of the Algonquin system and the construction of 6.8 billion cubic feet of L&G storage out of our existing facility in Acushnet, Massachusetts would provide enough gas to generators so that the winter time electricity cost should drop by approximately $1 billion a year in New England and up to $2.5 billion in the winter like we had in 2013 and 2014. The Access Northeast project is ideally suited to address to New England's natural gas infrastructure challenges since it would involve upgrading Spectra Energy's existing pipelines in New England. Our project is uniquely situated to deliver increased quantities of natural gas to the region's newest and cleanest fossil generators. To remind you, Spectra and Eversource each own 40% of the project and National Grid owns 20%. We believe that most of New England states will allow their electric utilities to participate in the natural gas capacity solicitation. During our July earnings call, I summarized the process. Turning to slide 15, I will provide the update of activity over the past three months. In Connecticut, the Department of Energy and Environmental Protection is expected to launch a gas capacity solicitation late this year. In New Hampshire, the PUC staff issued a report on September 15 in which they concluded that the state utility regulators have the authority to approve such contracts as long as they are proven to have a consumer benefit. Comments on that report were filed with the New Hampshire PUC in mid October. In Massachusetts the DPU ruled on October 2 that it has statutory authority to approve capacity contracts signed by electric distribution companies. The electric utilities of Eversource and National Grid in Massachusetts and Rhode Island launched a gas capacity open solicitation with proposals due November 13. In Maine, the Central Maine Power recently submitted comments to the Maine Commission recommending that the state proceeding to be expanded to consider regional solutions including in particular Access Northeast. We remain optimistic that we will be able to file contracts with state regulators by the end of this year or early next year and have them approved by the middle of 2016. We expect to make our formal filing at FERC later in 2016 and expect to bring major sections of the pipeline into service for the winter of 2018-2019, assuming expeditious approvals by Federal and state authorities. Because of the longer construction timeline for LNG facilities, we anticipate the storage element of the project to commence service after the pipeline. So now what I'd like to do is turn the call back over to Jeff for Q&A.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thank you, Lee. And I'm going to turn it back to Brandon to remind you how to enter questions. Brandon?
Operator:
Thank you.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Great. Thank you, Brandon. First question this morning is from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from UBS. Good morning, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Morning, Jeff. Good morning, team.
James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Good morning.
Leon J. Olivier - EVP-Energy Strategy & Business Development:
Hi, there.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Yeah. So perhaps just first quick question, if you will. Obviously, with developments at Pilgrim they have ramifications. You've kind of alluded to them. I'd be specifically interested in how does it impact transmission planning at ISO New England and could we see that float through here in the next year? And then separately, could you speak to the wider procurement process and how the carbon impact could drive specifically procurement for your solution effort? How is that going to tangibly have the impact on Northern Pass?
Leon J. Olivier - EVP-Energy Strategy & Business Development:
Okay. Just on your question, I think you asked in regards to Pilgrim retiring. One of the things that we're doing now is we're doing our system modeling around the impacts of Pilgrim retiring. And understanding what that means to reliability in that region because ISO New England does this as well and we have been quite complete about. We expect that there will be some upgrades as a result of Pilgrim retiring, but we don't see those upgrades at this particular time as being significant upgrades in terms of CapEx. In regards to Northern Pass and the carbon mandate, clearly right now as a result of Pilgrim retiring and stat is that Pilgrim produced 84% of all of Massachusetts' non-carbon energy about 84%. So Massachusetts has very aggressive goals in carbon reduction, as I've sated and as you can see on the slide. And the Governor, Governor Baker has said that he intends to meet the goals that the previous administrations had put in place. And that one of the ways to do that is by having large amounts of Canadian hydropower delivered to the region, and one could assume that in the case of Massachusetts they see part of their solution being with hydropower. And of course the difference between hydropower and wind is hydropower is firm. You can book it, you can schedule it, you can add up the numbers and determine the carbon impact of that and you can clearly place those against your goal. So we think carbon will be a significant attribute on which the state will be looking for us as part of the three state RFP.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Got it. And then just quickly following up here on the developments on the EIS, just the need to re-file impacted all of your negotiations in New Hampshire or does that reset any processes as far as that's going?
Leon J. Olivier - EVP-Energy Strategy & Business Development:
No, we think we've had a period of a couple of years of really significant outreach into the communities with key stakeholders in the state, political leaders. We think we have a route that works, that is captured in our filing. And of course, as always when you go through siting there is always some local mitigation that a siting council would put in place, but we don't feel that that would be significant or have a significant impact to the project.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
But to be clear the settlement conversations with New Hampshire will continue?
Leon J. Olivier - EVP-Energy Strategy & Business Development:
We actually have no settlement conversations with New Hampshire. We have provided our Forward New Hampshire Plan which really outlines our benefits to the state. Those have been extremely well received by everyone from the Governor to key legislative leaders and the business community. So we're not in the process of negotiating a settlement. We believe that a litigated outcome here through the process is the best outcome and is an outcome that will stand up to scrutiny post the decision.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Great. Thank you.
Leon J. Olivier - EVP-Energy Strategy & Business Development:
You're welcome.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thank you, Julian. Next question is from Shar Pourreza from Guggenheim. Good morning, Shar.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Good morning, Jeff. Good morning, team.
Leon J. Olivier - EVP-Energy Strategy & Business Development:
Good morning.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Just one question only on Northern Pass. Maybe we could touch on TDI's competing proposal. Obviously, Clean Power Link has a similar COD. They jumped ahead with the final EIS. But then like you touched on the prepared remarks, you're dealing with the Vermont Yankee shutdown, the recent Pilgrim decision, you've got the Clean Power Plan, obviously infrastructures issues, the Governor's bill. So should we think about these projects as mutually exclusive? Can they coexist? How should we think about that?
Leon J. Olivier - EVP-Energy Strategy & Business Development:
Well, I think in regards to the first part of your question in regards to TDI, I won't speak for them, but they'll have to line up a source of energy in which they could sell over that line. And the energy, at least from Hydro-Québec from their hydro facilities, will come through the Northern Pass line. We have a contract with them that we've worked out several years ago and they are currently in the siting process, which is actually a fairly lengthy process in Québec. It's about a three-year process. They are in that process with us to site transmission line, a major substation, a converter in Québec and are engaged in no other siting activity. So from the standpoint of TDI, their power is not coming from Hydro-Québec, they would have to find another source of power. If you look at the other various projects, there will be a number of projects that will be bid into the three-state RFP and then perhaps even including another project by Eversource that we are working on development at this point in time. So there will be a number of those projects and the states that participate in the process will have to look at those to understand what is the most beneficial net present value for customers, what projects are indeed siteable and the creditability of the counter parties that would be building them. So that's I think the rationale there.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Okay. Thanks so much.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
All right. Thanks, Shar. Next question is from Dan Eggers from Credit Suisse. Morning, Dan.
Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Hey. Good morning, guys.
Leon J. Olivier - EVP-Energy Strategy & Business Development:
Hey, Dan.
Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Just could we follow-up a little bit on this Massachusetts electric grid modernization program and just what was the genesis of these projects, the nature of what you're going to do there? And when next year do you expect to get some visibility on spending for those projects?
James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Sure. I think as my comments indicated, the spending is expected to be about $430 million and there's a series of components. We filed this back in mid-August, but next-generation remote fault circuit indicators, improvements to allow management of the distribution system, predictive outage protection, that sort of thing. So a lot of focus in the industry about making the grid more modern, smarter, more capable to accommodate distributed resources. So much of the spending is along the lines to achieve that. And, again, the budget we've submitted is a $430 million number.
Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
And the process for the Commission to say yes on this and set the mechanism so you get more timely recovery...
James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. The...
Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
...what process are we looking at for that?
James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Well, the process came out of the generic proceeding at the Mass DPU where the utilities were encouraged to file these plans. The utilities in Massachusetts did file them this year and the expectation is that they'll be reviewed and assessed and hopefully approved within the next year.
Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Okay.
James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Hopefully by early 2016.
Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Early 2016, okay. And then I guess just looking at the Pilgrim implications, Entergy is talking about no later than 2019. Some of your big projects are coming at that 2018, 2019 crux point as well. How do you guys look at system reliability? And is there going to be a more meaningful shortfall of resource if you can't get Northern Pass or the NESCOE pipes done on the timelines you guys provided today?
James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Well, just looking at system planning in that period of time, in the 2017 period you will have Brayton Point will be gone, which is 1500 megawatts to 1600 megawatts of coal fired generation which has played a pivotal role during these winter periods, that will be gone. Pilgrim will be gone in the 2019 timeframe. So it's really imperative that we get our Access Northeast project phased in starting in the winter 2018, 2019 and that is clearly one of the points that we're making to key policymakers and including regulators. So to the extent that we don't have some amount of that gas flowing in, then the system could be very, very tight in terms of reliability, which, what will mean is that the existing plants that can dual fuel and burn oil will probably burn a lot more oil like they did in the winter of 2013, 2014. So things could be very, very tight during that period.
Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
I guess, Lee, just one last one. If you think about the approvals you need for the NESCOE to get done, where are you most nervous right now about being able to hit the 2018, 2019 targets?
Leon J. Olivier - EVP-Energy Strategy & Business Development:
For Access Northeast, we need to go through this open solicitation that we have in Connecticut and Rhode Island. We need to have Connecticut, which is going to go through its own state-managed RFP. We need that to happen. And really what happens is that after you go through and you get them approved, you've got to get the PUCs that will approve these contracts and the regulatory timeline in each of the states is a little bit different. Connecticut is going later, but has a very, very short regulatory timeline. Turnaround is usually about 60 days, so they actually may go late, but finished first. Massachusetts has a longer timeline. So we expect a whole of these things to come together late this year, early next year, and determine who the winners of this open solicitation and RFP is, and in some case, states such as Maine, it just maybe, New Hampshire just maybe filing up a proceeding agreement in the states of having the PUC approved. So meanwhile in parallel, we'll really later today file our FERC pre-filing that really opens up a complete process of 13 separate individual reports that we will file. The whole idea of that FERC pre-filing process is to try to reach alignment around the end of it which takes about a year such that when you file the final agreement with FERC, the review process can be expedited. So really right now it's a combination of getting through the state process and then supporting the FERC pre-filing process.
Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Got it. Thank you very much.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
All right, Thanks, Dan. Next question is from Ashar Khan (39:24) from Visium. Good morning, Ashar (39:25).
Unknown Speaker:
Hi, good morning. How are you guys doing?
Leon J. Olivier - EVP-Energy Strategy & Business Development:
Good morning.
Unknown Speaker:
I was just trying to – we're running LTM $2.94 and the guidance this morning has been the midpoint is, if I'm right, $2.83, so we're going to lose, as you said, in the fourth quarter around $0.11 or so. Jim, can you just tell in which buckets the earnings decline is going to come in? Is it going to be the distribution generation side where majority of the shortfall is going to happen in the fourth quarter. I was just trying to pin in my – this result, as to where should we see the shortfalls, in which segments of the business in the fourth quarter?
James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Sure. If you look at the fourth quarter, the year ago, there were a couple of unusual items one had to do, I guess combined probably totaled about $0.09 and it's got to do with what we've booked related to the FERC ROE case, so that would be in the transmission space. That's probably half that number, half the $0;09 number. And the other half would be that the change that we've seen in income taxes between the two quarters, the fourth quarter a year ago, and the ones that we expect coming up. Obviously, that would be spread across each of the segments.
Unknown Speaker:
Okay. Okay, appreciate it. And then Jim can you just – as you have mentioned as we look into 2016 and the 6% to 8% growth rate. As you mentioned that some of the spending on the pipe because of the approval process Northern Pass will be shifted. Will that lead to kind of like to be us at the lower end of that growth rate target next year. I'm just trying to see or can we find stuff to replace that shifting of some of that transmission spending as we look into next year?
James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Sure. Ashar (41:24) just to sort of calibrate where we are just this year. If you look at the range that we've provided in the release yesterday and then today, the bottom end of that range $2.80 would be about a 6% growth in earnings over last year. The high end of that range, $2.85 would be an 8% growth over where we were last year. So again very consistent with the 6% to 8% growth that we've provided long-term. Obviously, we're into the 2016 budgeting process. I do feel good about where we are, but we haven't wrapped it up yet. We tend to finish it with a board approval in early December. We would like to start the year with an approved plan. But we do have continued transmission investment. We do see O&M reduction opportunities again next year. We've got new gas distribution rates that will kick-in at NSTAR Gas effective January 1, the rate increase that I mentioned. We continue to see vibrant growth in the number of customers on the gas side. The conversion seems to be going pretty well. So those have been the factors that have been drivers for our earnings growth over the last couple of years and many of them continue into 2016.
Unknown Speaker:
Okay. Okay. Appreciate it. Thank you so much.
James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Welcome.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Well, thanks, Ashar (42:46). Our next question is from Travis Miller from Morningstar. Good morning, Travis.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Research:
Good morning. Thank you. I was wondering on the electric businesses and specifically, can you give us a glide path so to speak of earned ROEs, kind of where you're starting at this year and then some of the key factors? Obviously, there's net new investment, but what would be the elements that might keep those earned returns in that allowed return range for the next two to three years without having to file rate cases? Just wondering if you could give a sense for that glide path and the variables there for the electric business?
James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Sure. On the gas business, the one subsidiary that we were significantly under-earning on was NSTAR Gas and obviously the order that we received Friday improved our ability to earn there. We generally forecast pretty flat sales growth on the electric side. 0% to 0.5% is the guidance that we've given long term. A couple of our electric subsidiaries have decoupling, so sales growth is largely irrelevant. So we have an opportunity to continue to grow earnings either through some of these trackers that we're putting in place, or through continued cost cutting. And we are doing much better I would say because of the cost cutting that we've been able to implement in terms of allowed ROEs. We continued to sort of operate within the deadband or sharing mechanisms that we have in place and they continue to generally improve year in year out.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Research:
Okay, that's all I had and thanks so much.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thanks, Travis. Our next question is from Caroline Bone of Deutsche Bank. Good morning, Caroline.
Caroline V. Bone - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Good morning. So I was wondering if you could talk a little bit more about this other transmission project that you guys are working on that might bid into the three state RFP and what this might look like? And when it might be eligible to come into service?
Leon J. Olivier - EVP-Energy Strategy & Business Development:
Caroline, this is Lee. At this time, I really can't disclose more on that. We're still working with our partners, trying to firm up what that partnership would be, and how that would work, but I would say that's going well. And I think once we get farther down the road on that, we will look to disclose the partners and projects, so I just can't disclose anything on it at this point in time.
Caroline V. Bone - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay, that's fair. And then, I guess, just actually a specific question on the three state Clean Energy RFP. You mentioned I believe that Northern Pass is going to participate, but I didn't think that NPT could participate in this stage because I didn't think large scale hydro qualifies under the current law in Massachusetts. Has something changed there or maybe I was misunderstanding how it worked?
Leon J. Olivier - EVP-Energy Strategy & Business Development:
Yeah. The RFP has three provisions in which you can bid on. One is just doing a kind of a power purchase agreement. The second one is doing a power purchase agreement with transmission. So you could bundle them together. And the third one was called a deliverability commitment, which means that you would build transmission to an energy source and that source of energy would make a commitment to flow X amount of energy over the course of a year, so in terms of megawatt hours. And of course particularly for carbon, you would want a source of energy that's large, that is firm, that is dispatchable. So that's kind of the – that's the three ways in which the project could participate. And in the case of Connecticut, there's probably about 250 megawatts or 300 megawatts of hydro power that could be purchased by Connecticut. And then all three states have agreed to the deliverability commitment model.
Caroline V. Bone - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
All right. Thanks very much, guys.
Leon J. Olivier - EVP-Energy Strategy & Business Development:
You're welcome.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
All right. Thanks, Caroline. Next question is from Greg Gordon from Evercore ISI. Good morning, Greg.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Thanks. How are you doing, guys?
James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Hey, Greg.
Leon J. Olivier - EVP-Energy Strategy & Business Development:
Hey, Greg.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
So just going back to – I was going back through time, just looking for the last official you gave on sort of your CapEx projections through 2018 and I believe it was in your April presentation for the Spring Utility Day for some broker. And I'm just – you've given kind of an update qualitatively on what you're looking at in terms of the evolution of the CapEx plan? You have a slide on page eight where you gave an update on all the major transmission reliability projects and you talked about all those stuff? Can you just talk about like whether this $3.9 billion CapEx plan that you've last gave us, if you're basically telling us that there is an upside bias to that plan because of the things that you've identified that would enhance customers' reliability or whether there was a placeholder in that plan already for a lot of this stuff or somewhere in between?
James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
And Greg I think what you're referencing is when we did our the end of our year call back in February 2015, we used the same numbers and CapEx projections that we then embodied in our 10-K, so that's the annual update.
James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Sure. I think not to fully reconcile, but what's changed since then, I think the grid modernization plan that I mentioned earlier that's under review at the Mass DPU, the $430 million of spending associated with that. Obviously, the cost of Northern Pass has increased and we've disclosed the new price went from $1.4 billion to $1.6 billion. There are increases in the Greater Boston Reliability Solution that I alluded to in my comments as well. And Lee mentioned that there may be other transmission projects that we're looking at now that we haven't sort of quantified or disclosed at this stage, but the progress has generally been increased spending in transmission over what was provided earlier, transmission or distribution over what was provided earlier in the year.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Great. Thanks. That's pretty clear. The only reason I asked was because there is one section of those bar charts that says $968 million of other forecasted reliability projects that aren't specifically called out. But you're saying that all of the stuff that you just delineated would have been upside to what you thought you were going to spend when you put out this plan?
James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
That bucket tends to be many, many smaller projects, each of which are identified and estimated, but those projects are still in the plan going forward.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Okay, that's very clear. Thank you guys.
James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Welcome Greg.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thanks Greg. Next question is from Michael Lapides from Goldman. Good morning, Michael.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Hey, guys, congratulations and congrats on the run the Patriots are having up there. Real quick. When you think about the CapEx schedule, so not the total amount, but the timing for both Northern Pass and Access Northeast relative to what you had back in the K, where are you kind of schedule wise versus where you originally thought you would be 9 or 10 months ago?
Leon J. Olivier - EVP-Energy Strategy & Business Development:
Well, we really haven't disclosed, I don't think, any Northern Pass capital expenditure spending by year in the 10-K. I think from the period of the 10-K, I think now that we have a new schedule that we have a high degree of confidence and there has a been some slippage over where we were a year ago on Northern Pass. So some of the spending that we had in 2016 has shifted into 2017 and similarly some of the 2017 spending into 2018. So we intend to provide a refreshed and new capital outlook as we usually do after our year-end results are published in February. But no major changes other than I would say that the new Northern Pass timeline.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. And on Access Northeast, just in terms of how you're thinking about the timeline for construction year-over-year relative to what you had originally put out numbers a while ago?
Leon J. Olivier - EVP-Energy Strategy & Business Development:
Yeah.
James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Michael, just to be clear, we never showed numbers year-by-year for Access Northeast, though we said that that was in addition to the forecast that we laid out in February.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. Thank you.
Leon J. Olivier - EVP-Energy Strategy & Business Development:
Yeah, and just generally speaking because we haven't really laid out the numbers and I think we'll be in a better position in the February timeframe to give you a better look at those, but if you look between the pre-filing and the FERC final filing which will take place next year, over this period of time it's really all environmental work and engineering work, study work and so forth. And then we would expect to get after we do our final filing with FERC in November of next year, we would expect to get a decision out of FERC in the essentially spring of 2018, so we'll say, April timeframe. And then we would start construction and we would have the first phase of the project in for the winter of 2018, 2019. And then the next year the majority of the pipeline and then the L&G facility will phase in late in 2020 and 2021.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. Okay, guys. Last question, totally unrelated. When you think about the impact of O&M management and the ability to continue to reap O&M cost savings, where do you think you are in the process, meaning do you feel like you've realized a large chunk of the post-merger O&M savings at this point? Do you see yourself as still having huge runway or do you expect that runway to slow down a little bit in terms of the ability to realize cost savings over the next few years?
James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
I think the guidance that we gave is that we do think that we can achieve on average 3% reductions right through 2018. Obviously, as you know, Michael we have delivered on those estimates. I would say that early on, clearly identifiable merger-related savings are very obvious post-merger, but at some point you transition from merger-related savings to just best practices and good cost discipline throughout the organization. So I think that's the phase that we into enter now as the classic merger-related items become fewer and fewer the further you get away from that merger date. So we continue to be optimistic with the guidance that we've provided and we'll refresh again in February for everybody.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. Thanks, guys. Much appreciate it.
James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thank you.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thanks, Michael. Next question is from Paul Patterson from Glenrock. Good morning, Paul.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Good morning. Just quickly on Northern Pass and the forward capacity auction number. When do you think that we'll actually see it bid into the FCA?
Leon J. Olivier - EVP-Energy Strategy & Business Development:
That is probably not in the immediate future. It's really an HQ decision because they would bid that into the forward capacity market. So I don't think you'll see anything this year, in the next auction which I think is in February, so it's a ways out.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. And the reason for that? Can you provide...
Leon J. Olivier - EVP-Energy Strategy & Business Development:
The reason for that is obviously you make the commitment, for instance, the 2019, 2020 timeframe, if you make that commitment, you've got to cover the commitment if for some reason that there is a delay as a result of siting or – we still have to do some work with ISO New England in the Market Monitor and so forth. So we still have some technical issues, market issues to work out through them. So you want to get farther along in those discussions, you want to have a better sense around where the siting process is before you commit to 1,100 megawatts into the marketplace and you've got to have a line to deliver it.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. And then on the grid modernization project in Massachusetts, advanced meters, you mentioned it as being optional in the slide. And I was just wondering you guys have had a more conservative approach towards meters I believe in the past. What do you think the adoption rate or how much of that CapEx do you guys associate with advanced meters in that proposal that you have there?
James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Well, there is the ability to often include it in the proposal, which means that we're not suggesting that AMI should be spread around our entire customer base. I think the details of the filing are available in addition to the meters and it was also IT system changes that would be needed to accommodate time varied rates. So the detail is in our filing I believe, but I don't have the number readily available, Paul.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. Sure. But would you say that you guys are still cautious it would seem, am I wrong, in terms of the benefits that advanced meters are likely to provide? Was that a fair characterization?
James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah, we believe that there are some people that may be interested in monitoring their usage very closely on a daily basis if need be. And for that group of people we will allow the option to give them the infrastructure to do that, but we think that it's a very small minority of our customer base overall.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. Thanks a lot.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thank you, Paul. Next question is from Andrew Weisel from Macquarie. Good morning, Andrew.
Andrew M. Weisel - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Hey. Good morning, everyone.
James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Good morning, Andrew.
Andrew M. Weisel - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
First question on some of the public hearings you've had for Northern Pass. How would you say the feedback you received from those meetings went? And how might that effect the SEC review? Media reports suggest that they weren't the most favorable conversations.
Leon J. Olivier - EVP-Energy Strategy & Business Development:
Yeah, I would say that there was a range. There were five meetings in five different locations, actually I think we did six in five locations. But clearly in the Northern part of New Hampshire, we had the most vociferous group of folks there. But at the same time, the demeanor was different. It was respectful. There was less emotion. There's always going to be the hardcore opponents to it, but I would say there was more dialog this time. I would say it was informative. We had some of the other meetings really where just a handful of people showed up because they really don't have that concern. And so it was arranged. But I will say it's markedly different from the open houses that we've had in New Hampshire before around this line, a little lot less emotion and some mutual respect between the presenters and the audience. I really think it was very, very well done.
Andrew M. Weisel - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Sounds good. Thank you.
Leon J. Olivier - EVP-Energy Strategy & Business Development:
Yeah.
Andrew M. Weisel - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Next question on the Massachusetts modernization plan. It might be too early, but would have any sense what the shape of that $430 million might look like? In other words, would it be even spending into the five years or so or maybe more front-end or back-end loaded?
James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
I think probably what I should point out is maybe a third of it is going to be O&M. So only about two-thirds of it is capital spending and I do think it ramps up during the five-year period somewhat.
Andrew M. Weisel - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Okay. Then just two last questions as we look forward to 2016 earnings, obviously you haven't given guidance yet. But the first question I had is on tax rates. Do you have any forecast for what effective tax rate might be relative to this year? Then second on the FERC ROE, the ALJ should give their recommendation before you give your 2016 guidance. Would you somehow reflect that in terms of the transmission ROE or wait for a FERC decision later in 2016 before you start to accrue those numbers?
Leon J. Olivier - EVP-Energy Strategy & Business Development:
Sure. On the second one, it will depend upon the facts and circumstances of the FERC ROE order, whether or not we would reflect anything associated with the ALJ recommendation or whether we would wait until the FERC final decision which we expect in the third quarter of 2016. We continue to believe that the base ROE that was allowed in the first complaint 10.57% is well within the range of reasonableness going forward. So we would hope and expect that the FERC would come to a similar conclusion. In terms of the effective rate, as I mentioned, this year we expect to be between 37.5% and 38% and I'm going to not provide a number for 2016 until we provide our guidance in February.
Andrew M. Weisel - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Fair enough. Thank you very much.
Leon J. Olivier - EVP-Energy Strategy & Business Development:
You're welcome, Andrew.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thank you, Andrew. That's the last question. So we want to thank you, folks, very much for joining us today. As Jim said earlier, we'll see many of you down at EEI starting on Sunday. Safe travels and we look forward to seeing you there. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Jeff Kotkin - Vice President, Investor Relations Jim Judge - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Lee Olivier - Executive Vice President, Enterprise Energy Strategy & Business Development Jim Muntz - President, Transmission Phil Lembo - Vice President and Treasurer Jay Buth - Vice President and Controller John Moreira - Vice President, Financial Planning and Analysis
Analysts:
Dan Eggers - Credit Suisse Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Steven Berg - Morgan Stanley Travis Miller - Morningstar Shar Pourreza - Guggenheim Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs Andrew Weisel - Macquarie Caroline Bone - Deutsche Bank
Operator:
Welcome to the Eversource Energy Second Quarter Earnings Call. My name is Christina and I will be the operator for today’s call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later we will conduct a question-and-answer session. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Jeff Kotkin. You may begin.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thank you, Christina. Good morning and thank you for joining us. I am Jeff Kotkin, Eversource Energy’s Vice President of Investor Relations. Some of the statements made during this investor call maybe forward-looking as defined within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on management’s current expectations and are subject to risk and uncertainty, which may cause the actual results to differ materially from forecasts and projections. Some of these factors are set forth in the news release issued yesterday. Additional information about the various factors that may cause actual results to differ can be found in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2014 and our quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the three months ended March 31, 2015. Additionally, our explanation of how and why we use certain non-GAAP measures is contained within our news release and the slides we posted last night on our website under Presentations and Webcasts and in our most recent 10-K and 10-Q. Speaking today will be Jim Judge, our Executive Vice President and CFO and Lee Olivier, our Executive Vice President for Enterprise Energy Strategy & Business Development. Also joining us today are Jim Muntz, President of our Transmission business; Phil Lembo, our Vice President and Treasurer; Jay Buth, our Vice President and Controller; and John Moreira, our Vice President of Financial Planning and Analysis. Now, I will turn over the call to Jim.
Jim Judge:
Thank you, Jeff and thank you all for joining us this morning. Today, I will cover a strong second quarter financial results, which were in line with our guidance range for the full year. Our strong operating performance and update on several legislative and regulatory items and I will close with an update on certain transmission projects. Let’s start with Slide 4 and our financial results. Excluding merger-related costs, we earned $209.6 million, or $0.66 per share in the second quarter of 2015 compared with earnings of $131.9 million, or $0.42 per share in the second quarter of 2014. Over the first six months of 2015, we earned $466.9 million, or $1.47 per share, excluding those charges compared with earnings of $373.7 million, or $1.18 per share in the first half of 2014. These results strongly support our full year earnings projection of $2.75 to $2.90 per share as well as our targeted long-term annual earnings growth rate of 6% to 8%. Turning to Slide 5, a significant driver in the second quarter year-over-year earnings growth was the absence of a $0.10 charge we recorded in the second quarter of 2014, resulting from the initial decision from FERC on the allowed transmission ROEs for New England transmission owners. There was no similar charge this quarter plus we continue to realize the benefits of our continued investment in New England transmission reliability enhancements, which added $0.01 to earnings. As a result, our transmission earnings totaled $0.25 per share in the second quarter of 2015 compared with $0.14 per share in the second quarter of 2014. On the electric distribution side, higher retail revenues primarily due to last December’s Connecticut Light & Power distribution rate decision and a follow-on order from earlier this month involving accumulated deferred income taxes added $0.10 per share to earnings. I will discuss the July decision more fully in a moment. We continue to evidence good cost discipline as we have lower O&M – lower non-tracked O&M expense this quarter that reflects a decline in labor and labor-related costs and added $0.06 to earnings. I should point out that part of the large O&M decline this quarter, in fact, $22 million of the $56 million you will see in the income statement are costs that we don’t have any more as we sold our electrical contracting company early in the quarter. So, $70 million of annualized O&M will go away. There is really no real earnings per share impact as obviously the revenues will go away as well. Back to the reconciliation for the quarter. As expected, earnings were negatively affected by $0.06 due to higher property taxes, depreciation and amortization expense associated with storm cost recovery. Other factors impacting the quarter which include improved generation earnings and lower income taxes added another $0.03 per share. In terms of operations, our electric and natural gas delivery systems have performed well over the first half of the year. Our electric restoration metric, which represents the average number of months between interruptions, continues to track favorably as our reliability metrics are now consistently in the top quartile of our industry. Turning to our state legislatures, we had an active and successful spring. In Connecticut, Governor Malloy signed Public Act 15-107, which among other initiatives will allow electric distribution companies to sign long-term supply contracts with interstate natural gas pipelines. We will discuss the significance of that act shortly. Turning to Slide 6, in New Hampshire, the Senate and House overwhelmingly endorsed modifications to the state’s securitization statutes which are key to public service of the New Hampshire’s divestiture of its generating assets and recovery of those costs. The divestiture process has now moved to the New Hampshire Public Utilities Commission, where we filed a comprehensive restructuring and rate stabilization settlement agreement on June 10. That agreement was signed by a wide range of parties, including the Governor’s Office of Energy and Planning, two key state senators, senior New Hampshire PUC staff, the Office of Consumer Advocate, the IBEW local representing PSNH’s unionized workers and the Conservation Law Foundation among others. In addition to divestiture of PSNH’s 1,200 megawatts of generation, other terms of the agreement called for PSNH to defer a distribution rate case until at least mid 2017, the continuation of PSNH’s reliability enhancement program and the related cost tracker, foregoing $25 million of deferred equity return on the scrubber, and funding by Eversource shareholders of $5 million of clean energy initiatives. Parties to the settlement agreement have asked the New Hampshire PUC to rule on the agreement by December 31, 2015, which should allow the planned sale process to occur in 2016. As part of the agreement, the Commission’s review of Merrimack Station’s scrubber investment will end. We firmly believe that the agreement we filed will benefit all New Hampshire’s stakeholders over the long-term, which is why it is so widely supported. Turning from New Hampshire to Connecticut in Slide #7, on July 2, PURA approved a settlement we have reached with the authorities prosecutorial unit concerning the treatment of accumulated deferred income taxes in setting rate base in last December’s general rate case decision. The settlement restored approximately $165 million of distribution rate base and will add about $18 million of distribution revenues annually that’s retroactive to December 1, 2014. We recorded $11 million in the second quarter for the period of December 1, 2014 to June 30, 2015. In Massachusetts, we received two positive orders from state regulators relative to our plans to step up investment in our natural gas delivery system. The GPU approved a mechanism to recover investments related to the significant upgrade of our 3 billion cubic foot liquefied natural gas storage facility in Hopkinton, Massachusetts over the next several years. We expect to invest up to $200 million in that 40-year full facility, which is critical to helping NSTAR gas meet its winter supply obligations. Additionally, the DPU approved the first step in NSTAR Gas’ accelerated replacement of its cast iron and its untreated steel pipe over the next 20 years or 25 years. Those expenditures which were expected to rise to more than $60 million a year by the end of this decade will also be recovered through a distribution rate tracking mechanism. Later this year, we also expect to file a natural gas expansion plan to NSTAR Gas to comply with the state legislation that was approved last year. NSTAR Gas is our only distribution company where we have a rate case pending, hearings in that case were a base distribution rate increase request is approximately $23 million. Hearings were held in June and the decision is expected in the fourth quarter. New rates will take effect January 1, 2016. I would like to touch on energy rates for a moment. On July 1, the default energy rates at all four of our electric distribution companies dropped significantly from as high as $0.15 per kilowatt hour to between $0.0825 and $0.10 a kilowatt hour. This reduction, which is a pass-through for us mostly impacts our residential customers, the vast majority of whom have not moved to a third-party supplier and continue to buy their energy from us. While our customers will benefit from this decline through December, rates are very likely to rise again significantly in January when New England’s acute shortage of natural gas pipeline capacity will again pressure electricity prices. This see-sawing of energy rates is not healthy for our region’s economy and Lee will discuss in a moment the long-term initiatives that we have underway to resolve this dilemma. In Washington, hearings at FERC concluded this month on the second and third complaints filed regarding the return on equity earned by New England transmission owners. Earlier this year, FERC reaffirmed a base ROE of 10.57%, down from its previously allowed 11.14%. We believe that the 10.57% base is a reasonable level and booked reserves in the second quarter of last year and first quarter of this year, to reflect FERC’s final order. We are due to receive a FERC ALJ initial decision late this year and expect the commission order in the third quarter of 2016. Turning from regulatory issues to financing, we are pleased with the outcome of our annual rating agency reviews. On our first quarter earnings call I mentioned that the S&P had raised its corporate rating on Eversource and its subsidiaries from A- to A with a stable outlook. S&P also upgraded Eversource’s commercial paper rating to A1. Subsequent to that upgrade, Fitch raised the outlook for CL&P, PSNH and WMECO to positive and Moody’s raised its outlook for PSNH and WMECO to positive. We believe these actions speak loudly about how well we are operating the business and how many important regulatory items have been successfully resolved. Now turning to Slide 8, I will provide a brief update on some significant transmission projects. Our share of the Interstate Reliability Project which we are building in Northeastern Connecticut has finished major construction and the project was about 97% complete as of June 30. Right of way restoration remains and we expect the entire project in Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts to be in service later this year. We have now made three filings with the Connecticut Siting Council for projects included in the $350 million Greater Hartford seven [ph] solutions and all have now been improved with one already under construction. We continue to estimate that all Greater Hartford projects will be completed by the end of 2018. On this slide, we also highlight some additional transmission projects in New Hampshire that have been in our forecast and guidance. On July 21, we and National Grid filed a joint application within New Hampshire Site Evaluation Committee to build the Merrimack Valley Reliability project. Our share of the project would cost approximately $37 million. Separately we are going through the pre-filing process of the Seacoast Reliability Project, which is part of the New Hampshire 10-year reliability initiative we have been discussing with you for a few years. We are reviewing our $70 million cost estimate for the Seacoast project as we incorporate input from the towns that will host the project. These projects underscore the continued economic growth we see in New Hampshire and Eastern Massachusetts. Altogether, our capital expenditures totaled $771 million in the first six months of the year, $324 million of which was spent on our electric transmission system. We continue to project total CapEx of $1.85 billion this year to $740 million of which will be invested in transmission. That concludes my formal remarks. Now I will turn the call over to Lee.
Lee Olivier:
Thanks Jim. I will provide you with a brief update on our major capital initiatives and then turn the call back to Jeff for Q&A. Let’s start with Northern Pass profiled on Slide 10. U.S. Department of Energy released its draft environmental impact statement on July 21. We have begun our review of the document and do not believe it poses any unanticipated challenges to the construction of the project. We were pleased that the draft EIS included that there would be a very low to low visual impact on our Northern sections of our preferred group. As expected, the DOE reviewed a number of alternative routes of the project in addition to our preferred configuration. We will carefully evaluate these alternatives. The considerable breadth of these alternatives should ensure that the project configuration ultimately approved by New Hampshire regulators will have been analyzed by the DOE. While the draft EIS is now released the DOE has scheduled hearings on the report for early October and asked for written comments by the end of October. Now that the DOE has issued its draft review, we expect to file with New Hampshire Site Evaluation Committee for our state siting approval in the early to mid-fall. The new state process requires a series of public meetings on the project at least 30 days before the application. So you should expect those meetings to be scheduled soon. Once we file our application to site evaluation committee, we will have up to two months to determine that the submittal is complete and then up to 12 months to rule on it. Our state application will incorporate feedback from the DOE’s draft EIS, as well as from the ongoing outreach in New Hampshire to ensure it is viewed favorably by a wide range of stakeholders. As part of our engagement with New Hampshire stakeholders, we announced on June 16, a new and unique partnership that will create significant opportunities for New Hampshire workers and businesses to participate in our upcoming transmission projects in the state. This would include Northern Pass and about that $800 million we expect to invest in other New Hampshire projects over the next 5 years some of which Jim has referenced earlier. The Jobs program focuses on three key areas of employment. They include a commitment to hire New Hampshire workers first, their commitment to New Hampshire-based construction related companies, many of them family-run to have an opportunity to bid on our projects a first of a kind training program to allow New Hampshire apprentices to be paid while training for high demand work on electric transmission construction. This effort has been coordinated with IBEW and our major electrical contractors. We look forward to the many of these New Hampshire residents and companies working in Northern Pass. The project continues to offer enormous benefits to the State of New Hampshire and to the region as a whole. We continue to estimate the cost of approximately $1.4 billion for Northern Pass, but that could change depending on the conditions related to the regulatory approvals. Turning to Slide 11, you can see that we expect to receive both state and federal siting approvals of the project in late 2016, commence construction around the end of 2016 and have the project substantially complete on both sides of the border by the end of 2018, with testing and entering into full commercial operation in the first half 2019. This schedule is similar to what I discussed with you in May. Turning to Slide 12, New England continues to make progress towards addressing significant energy challenges facing the region. One of these challenges is the need for new clean sources of power especially as we witnessed the ongoing retirement of older coal, oil and nuclear units. Northern Pass will provide some of that clean power, but other additional sources would be needed to meet the renewable energy and carbon reduction mandates New England and other states have enacted into law. In late February, the state of Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island jointly unveiled a draft solicitation for clean energy sources that will require new electric transmission to be built. The draft RFP asked for proposals for power purchase agreements as well as for the construction and transmission that would tap into clean energy. In late June, the final proposed RFPs were submitted to Massachusetts and Rhode Island through regulators for approvals. Connecticut legislation does not require that step. We expect that regulatory sign-ups on their RFP will occur over the next couple of months and the RFPs will be released to potential bidders shortly thereafter with bids due late this year. In Massachusetts, Governor Baker filed legislation on July 9 that calls on the state to purchase up to 18.9 million megawatt hours annually of clean hydroelectric power and other renewable energy. That equates to about 2,400 megawatts of capacity. We expect the legislature to take up the Governor’s bill this fall. But earlier this week, Governor Baker’s Energy Secretary, Matthew Beaton, said that the Governor has made the bill one of his priorities since without hydropower, the state will fall short of emissions reductions targeted by the state’s landmark 2008 Global Warming Solutions Act. In addition to taking steps to address its clean energy goals, New England has also made significant progress towards improving the availability of natural gas to fuel power generation during the winter. As I discussed on our first quarter conference call, New England and federal policymakers are very concerned about the shortage of natural gas capacity into the region during cold weather months, New England is challenged by a lack of gas pipeline capacity into a region, a shortage of natural gas storage and a heavy and growing dependence on natural gas generation. These constraints caused New England to suffer the three highest price months ever in New England for wholesale electricity prices in January and February of 2014 and February of this year. Further, natural gas prices in New England this past winter were almost doubled the national average even though we are located so close to the Marcellus gas fields. Without action the fuel constraints that we are seeing are driving skyrocketing prices will only continue and intensify. ISO New England recently stated that it expects 10% of the region’s generation fleet to retire by 2018 and possibly another 5,000 megawatts by 2020. These units will be oil and coal fire. More natural gas generation will take your place pressuring gas supplies and customer rates even further. The region’s policymakers recognized the severity of this challenge and are taking action. Turning to Slide 13, let’s start with Connecticut legislation as Jim mentioned earlier, on June 22, Governor Malloy signed Public Act 15-107. This bill provides clear authority for state regulators to allow electric distribution companies to sign long-term supply agreements with interstate natural gas pipelines. We expect the Department of Energy and Environmental Protection to solicit proposals later this year. In Massachusetts, Department of Public Utilities opened the docket in April to examine whether we could – whether it should consider allowing electric distribution companies to contract for interstate pipeline capacity. We, along with National Grid and the government’s Department of Energy Resources, strongly believe the DPU’s authority to approve such contracts is clear under state law. Initial comments were filed in June and reply comments in early July. Although the DPU has not set a timeline for the remainder of the investigation, we anticipate the DPU will issue its findings later this summer or early fall. In New Hampshire, the Public Utilities Commission opened its own docket in April to investigate the means by which electric distribution companies could ameliorate adverse wholesale electric market conditions caused by natural gas constraints. Stakeholders filed comments in June. Further, the PUC staff released its preliminary conclusions earlier this month that electric distribution companies have the necessary authority to contract the natural gas capacity. The PUC staff will provide a report to the Commission by September 15 of this year. In Maine, the Public Utilities Commission conducted an RFP late last year as part of its mandate to bring up to 200 million cubic feet a day of incremental natural gas capacity into the state. Access Northeast bid into that RFP and in May Central Maine Power filed with the Maine PUC recommending that it be allowed to contract with Access Northeast to bring in additional gas capacity. The consultant hired by the PUC analyzed the proposals, issued its report earlier this month including that Maine going it alone would not be justified. We believe this reinforces the need for a multi-state effort. All of these actions point to the increased recognition by policymakers that New England requires additional interstate pipeline capacity to ensure electric grid reliability and stable pricing. As we have said previously, we believe that the $3 billion Access Northeast project we are developing with Spectra Energy and National Grid is ideally suited to address New England’s natural gas infrastructure challenges since it would include upgrading Spectra’s existing pipelines in New England. Our project is unique, uniquely situated to deliver increased quantities of natural gas to the region’s newest and cleanest generators to inspect those pipelines and our alliance with Iroquois Pipeline connect us to directly to more than 70% of the region’s gas fire units. To remind you, Spectra and Eversource would each own 40% of the project and National Grid would own 20% of the project. The project’s open season ended May 1 and it received a strong response from both electric and natural gas distribution companies. The Access Northeast has commenced the process of negotiating long-term contracts with those distribution companies. We expect that pipeline customers will file those contracts with state regulators later this year with the goal of securing state regulatory approvals in 2016. With respect to sitting and citing and permitting, we plan to commence our FERC pre-filing later this year. This will facilitate a formal certificate filing at FERC in 2016. We expect to bring the pipeline into service for the winter of 2018/19 assuming expeditious approvals by federal and state authorities, because of the longer construction timeline for LNG facilities, we anticipate the storage element of the project will commence service after the pipeline. On July 27, we announced LNG, the LNG element of Access Northeast of public meeting in Acushnet, Massachusetts. That element involves the construction of 6.8 Bcf of LNG storage in Acushnet where Eversource currently operates an LNG facility. This LNG facility has been operated safely and reliably for nearly 45 years. The combination of the enhanced Spectra pipeline system and the additional domestic natural gas will allow us to ensure up to 5,000 megawatts of natural gas generation will remain online even during the coldest winter months. Now, I would like to turn the call back over to Jeff for Q&A.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thank you, Lee. And I will turn the call back to Christina just to remind you how to enter questions. Christina?
Operator:
Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] I will now turn the call back to Jeff.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thanks, Christina. Our first question this morning is from Dan Eggers from Credit Suisse. Good morning, Dan.
Dan Eggers:
Hey, good morning. Just on the process right now, I guess for Access Northeast, you guys will pre-file this year. FERC will give you a response what time in 2016 and then when would you expect an official formal approval and then start actually spending money on construction under the timeline you laid out today?
Lee Olivier:
In regards to the pre-filing, we will do the pre-filing approximately in the fourth quarter of this year. And then we will do the certificate filing somewhere between the third quarter and fourth quarter of next year. And clearly, at the beginning of this project the capital expenditures, our investments are very low. And what we are doing now was we are putting together the capital flows and cash flows for next year. And we will have a better sense of those later in the year most likely at our conference in the fall in November at EI conference.
Dan Eggers:
So, we will look for the capital update, but probably no real dollars going to work until what, ‘17/18, is that realistic?
Lee Olivier:
I think that’s a reasonable conclusion.
Dan Eggers:
And from confidence, obviously the open season is showing interest, do you guys need to see more state approvals in some of these process you have pending before everybody is going to be onboard for signing firm agreements at this point?
Lee Olivier:
Well, in the case of Connecticut, they don’t need commission approval. What's happening there is the Department of Energy Environmental Protection are putting together a RFP process. They are in the midst of doing that. They will go out with an RFP. Massachusetts, we expect by late this summer, early fall, will have signed off on the RFP and it will be issued then. And essentially, once the RFP is issued, this is on electrics, once the RFP is issued, there is about 75 days that will be required to get your bid in. So we could expect bids in the fall and to choose the winners, of late this year, early next year. And on gas, it really is going to be, it’s a little bit different. The only state that wants to using RFP process is Connecticut. The other states right now have not really made the determination whether they want to follow that or just used the standard kind of LDC process where we will file the EDCs will file the President agreements with the regulatory bodies and that will kick off an approval process that could take anywhere from three months to six months.
Dan Eggers:
So we shouldn’t see the bulk of these contracts somewhere around year end I guess then the gas utilities could be a little bit later but within the next six months to nine months we will know how firm and who is presumably going to take the capacity?
Lee Olivier:
Yes. I think that’s a good estimate of the time six months to nine months is a good estimate.
Dan Eggers:
Okay, very good. Thank you, guys.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thanks Dan. Next question is from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from UBS. Good morning Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Good morning. So the first quick follow-up on the last question there if you can. In regards to the procurement, as you are thinking about what’s contemplated obviously to early days for Connecticut and Massachusetts, will this ultimately be sufficient to get your projects off the ground, what’s the quantity contemplated at least as you are seeing the frameworks proposed between just the two states today to get your project and plus other projects off the ground, what’s the total volume, if you will?
Lee Olivier:
Julien, this is Lee. You are referring to the gas side?
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Yes indeed.
Lee Olivier:
Yes. In the gas side, we expect to get something very, very close to the 900,000 decatherms per day.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Okay, great. And then second question, somewhat related going towards to the other side of the house on the transmission, as you look at the Massachusetts legislation, how do you think about that tying into the present RFP that you just discussed, would that ultimately be an upsizing or how would that ultimately get feathered together?
Lee Olivier:
And this is in regards to the three state electric RFP and Governor Baker’s proposed legislation.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Exactly, how do you see those two working together?
Lee Olivier:
Currently, without that legislation the Massachusetts really would be interested in this deliverability commitment model whereby you buy essentially – you pay for transmission and you get a supplier on the other end that will deliver electricity on an agreed upon, essentially capacity factor or numbers of megawatt hours over the course of the year. So that would be their option there. If the Governor Baker’s legislation passes, then you really have the full range inside of the free state RFP. You would have the deliverability model. You can do transmission with PPAs or they could do PPAs as well. So just in the full range of what the options are in the current RFP.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Great. Thank you.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thank you, Julien. Our next question is from Steven Berg from Morgan Stanley. Good morning Steven.
Steven Berg:
Good morning. Thanks for your time. I wanted to follow-up on Dan's question just on the approval process and Lee you laid out sort of a 6 month to 9 month timeframe. On the gas side, could you give us some indication in terms of just key regulatory items we should be trying to follow throughout the course of the fall and through the winter time just so that we can better understand sort of the sequence or the key things we should be looking for there?
Lee Olivier:
Yes. Clearly, a key thing is the RFP process in Connecticut that will be run by R&D, which we expect to take place this fall. It will be the signing of the precedent agreements by the EDCs and LDCs, because it’s both and the filing of those precedent agreements that will take place essentially late third quarter, early fourth quarter, it will be the approval by the Massachusetts DPU of the RFP process. So, those are the kinds of things that you can expect to see, not the approval of the RFP process, but the approval of the docket that allows the EDCs to purchase gas infrastructure. So, those are some, again I said the pre-filing will be late this year and you will hear – we will continue to do the further rollout of our Acushnet facility, our LNG facility in Acushnet and you will hear more about that.
Steven Berg:
Okay, that’s very helpful. And just shifting gears over to just follow-up on what you have mentioned in Massachusetts with the Governor’s legislation proposal. It’s great that it sounds like it’s a key priority for the Governor. Could you just speak to for the proposal broadly, any your sense for, are there key elements of or sort of features that have drawn our position or is this something that is generally that you think broadly you have supported politically, how do you kind of think about the politics of it?
Lee Olivier:
Well, look, Jim you may want to catch up that one a little bit.
Jim Judge:
I mean, Steven, this is Jim. I would characterize it as similar to what we saw in Connecticut. Governor Malloy’s Connecticut energy strategy recognized that there are low-cost clean sources available in terms of Canadian Hydro that can help the state achieve its carbon reduction goals. I think the same mentality exists in Massachusetts among the policymakers. So, obviously its draft legislation at this stage would need to be approved on Beacon Hill and then signed by the Governor, but we think there is recognition that clean resources are available and within reach and we need to sort of be on with it in terms of enabling the commitments to be made.
Steven Berg:
Great, thank you very much.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thanks, Steven. Next question is from Travis Miller from Morningstar. Good morning, Travis.
Travis Miller:
Good morning. Thank you. On the O&M cost side, if you take out that business that you guys divested there, how are you thinking in terms of tracking your O&M savings targets for the year, behind ahead, on track, so far this year?
Jim Judge:
Yes, the guidance that we gave, Travis, for the year was O&M reductions of 2% to 3%. And when we adjust out the sale of that electric contracting business, I would say we are probably closer to 4% year-to-date. So, we are out little ahead of it. I would caveat that by saying that we do know that there is some timing in those numbers that we have gas and electrical maintenance plans that are lagging behind slightly. So, we will probably catch up on some of that. So, while we are ahead of plan year-to-date, I think the guidance continues to be 2% to 3% for the year that we are comfortable in giving. And that nets out obviously excluded the business that we have sold here in the second quarter.
Travis Miller:
Okay. And then what was the full earnings impact, the bottom line impact from that business, if you include that revenue?
Jim Judge:
It was relatively small fractions of $0.01. We have $2 million a year that order of magnitude.
Travis Miller:
Okay, great. Thanks so much.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thanks, Travis. Next question is from Shar Pourreza from Guggenheim. Good morning, Shar.
Shar Pourreza:
Good morning. Just one question on Northern Pass, the Jobs program that was announced as well as the property tax payments reductions, can we just get a little bit of a sense on what formed the basis of those terms with this from feedback you received from constituents within the state and sort of – is this sort of the foundation for settlements?
Lee Olivier:
Yes, Shar, this is Lee Olivier. We are not looking at this as a foundation for settlement, because we really believe that the process that’s in place now in New Hampshire is best lift through kind of a litigated process. We think ultimately out the other end it will have more integrity if it’s through the litigated process. Clearly, New Hampshire wants to understand, being the host, they want to understand the values of that line to New Hampshire from the standpoint and what does it do to lower electric cost to the extent that they can have a power purchase agreement, to the extent that it creates jobs both during the construction in permanent jobs, to the extent that there is other financial value to the state. And so this is after a lot of conversations with elected leaders, municipal officials and other key stakeholders in the region, including obviously, labor, the environment. And so what we will have when we announced the project will be a comprehensive value proposition that we will present to New Hampshire that will provide significant benefit in terms of jobs, revenues, tax revenues and other support for the state over a long period of time. So, we believe, coupled with the draft, EIS, coupled with our own outreach around the existing route and changes that we could make reasonably that the combination of all of those will have wide acceptance in the state when we file our application at the SEC in the early fall timeframe.
Shar Pourreza:
Okay, got it. So, just one clarification, so the Jobs program and the property tax payments that was from conversations you have had with constituents within New Hampshire?
Lee Olivier:
Yes. Well, the property tax payments will just be the standard mill rate on any given area. In other words, how much infrastructure is in a town, what’s the particular towns’ mill rate, what’s that infrastructure worth, what do we have on the books and they will be paid accordingly, very standard is how we do all of our other transmission. And then the other services provide will have been, if you will, discussed with the key stakeholders and we will reach a joint decision on those.
Shar Pourreza:
Okay, perfect. And then just on Access Northeast, once you get the firm contracts, sometime I guess next year, is there a point where we can get closer as far as upsizing the pipe through laterals and compressors? And then just lastly on the storage project, is there any kind of a quantification of what that spending outlook could be?
Lee Olivier:
On the latter one, the storage, that’s approximately $800 million of investment out of the $3 billion of the project investments, that’s about $800 million. And those are, our first cut up the number is that’s doing some engineering, heavy engineering consulting and understanding where the market is right now will mind for LNG. So, we think right now $800 million is a good number for 6.8 Bcf. And if you look at the project, the LNG would provide about 400,000 decatherms a day. The pipelines would provide around 500,000 decatherms. So, our project right now is approximately 1 Bcf and that’s the project that we will proceed with at this time.
Shar Pourreza:
Great, thank you so much.
Lee Olivier:
You are welcome.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thanks, sir. Next question is from Michael Lapides from Goldman Sachs. Good morning, Mike.
Michael Lapides:
Good morning, guys. Congrats on a good quarter. Two separate questions. The first one, you have two big projects, I mean, two really big projects, Northern Pass and Access Northeast. There are other market participants who are proposing new transmission down into New England, some of which with more underground routing than overhead. There is also one or two other parties, or consortium trying to get new major pipeline built. Can you talk for each of those two projects, the competitive positioning, the difference between your project recommendations and some of the others that are out there in the market?
Lee Olivier:
Yes, sure. Michael, this is Lee. I think looking at Northern Pass, clearly, the entity or utility that has the most hydropower available in North America is Hydro-Québec. And they are the closest geographically to New England, have tie lines into New England currently. And they are partners and they are only working on one interconnection between Québec and New England and that’s ours. Okay. So, they are not working on any other interconnection into New England. So, they are our partner here in New England. So where that would lead you is to if you look at other hydro sources, they would be in the [indiscernible] region, those are small in nature. They are under development, could show up in the next 15 years from now, but they don’t provide any meaningful supply into New England during that period of time. So, from that standpoint, our project, you know what 1,200 megawatts and you look at big part of what’s driving Governor Baker and others, it’s all about carbon reduction. If you want to get a picture, 50%, 80% carbon reduction by 2015, you need a lot of energy that doesn’t produce carbon that runs around the clock. And clearly, that transmission project is the best one to go do that. There will be other projects that will be wind projects. Some of them may have run-of-the-river, firmed up by their wind with run-of-the-river firm and the wind up, but those are smaller projects in nature, the 400 to 500 megawatts. And then you are probably looking at some big wind projects, we will say farther up in places like Maine. You have all the issues of building large transmission infrastructure to correct relatively speaking small amounts of energy. When you look at the wind capacity factor of 35%, the intermittency of that probably doesn’t have the huge carbon impact when you consider what you are paying for. So, that’s kind what the competition looks like there. On the gas side, it’s real clear. We are building a project that interconnects with 70% of the region’s generators. It is using existing right of ways, existing LNG facilities. It will pick up both EDCs, LDCs. It has future potential expansion capability. The competition is building a pipeline that is designed around serving LDCs and is in an area where it’s very difficult to interact with a whole lot of that 70% of the generation I just talked about. So, we think from that standpoint, we think that project is very well-positioned. And we had a very successfully rollout of our LNG in Acushnet, Massachusetts earlier this week.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. One follow-up easier question, when you are thinking about whether there is a new normal for gas utility, demand growth, especially at the residential and small commercial. How do you think about that and how different is that across your systems?
Jim Judge:
Well, this is Jim. Long-term gas growth rate that we are assuming in our 5-year plan and the guidance that we have provided is 4%. Now, you may not get those growth numbers in other regions of the country, where gas penetration is more significant. We have a huge opportunity in Connecticut, as well as in Massachusetts in terms of converting customers to gas heat at their homes. In fact, we have got attractive mechanisms in Connecticut in terms of cost recovery for that. So, we are targeting about 11,000 conversions this year. In spite of the decline in oil prices, we are actually ahead of plan. I think we have signed up 4,800 in the first half of the year. So, we have got 2% plus growth just on new customers. And then obviously, the volume is likely to grow as well. So, we feel pretty confident about our 4% growth rate long-term. Again, I don’t know that I would apply that to other utilities or other regions of the country.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Thanks guys. Much appreciate it.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thanks, Michael. Our next question is from Andrew Weisel from Macquarie. Good morning Andrew.
Andrew Weisel:
Good morning. Two questions on Northern Pass.
Jeff Kotkin:
Andrew could you just speak up a little bit?
Andrew Weisel:
Sure. Sorry, two questions on Northern Pass, first with the RFPs that you described, given that this is an economic base project, do those really matter if the project succeeds in bidding those RFPs and if so would that affect your economics, Hydro- Québec’s or the rate payers?
Lee Olivier:
I think – this is Lee, Andrew. I think the way we would answer that is there is this existing RFP process that’s been made available to all entrants. So obviously, we in HQ would enter this project into – to that process because to go forward independent of that would provide the others that would bid in and we are chosen to have the competitive advantage over Northern Pass. So I think it’s appropriate that this project, takes part in that RFP process. So and in that case as you know, in the three states there would be some load share spreading of that cost over those three states. And each state obviously will be different based upon the specific part of there – either RPS portfolio and our carbon reduction mandates that they have. So that would have to be determined by the three states as part of the RFP process.
Andrew Weisel:
Okay. Thank you. The next question from me DOE’s draft EIS, the cost estimates of undergrounding look quite a bit lower than what you guys have talked about. The most expensive option they have is 4B at $2.1 billion to underground it, is there some disagreement in how they make that estimate, do you still think that it would be prohibitively expensive to underground it or in light of the DOE’s estimate, is that something that you might consider?
Jim Judge:
The numbers that DOE used in their estimates was a direct cost. They didn’t use the fully loaded cost with AFUDC and financing. So they just used the direct cost that’s why their costs were different than our costs.
Andrew Weisel:
So do you still consider – I am sorry continue.
Jim Judge:
The cost that we use are costs that are current industry market costs either for underground that we do or have done and/or updates from our contractors. So we think our costs are pretty accurate. And I think the main difference with the DOE is they just used direct cost.
Andrew Weisel:
Do you still see fully undergrounding as prohibitively expensive?
Jim Judge:
Yes. We see underground – full undergrounding is a necessary, prohibitively expensive and a project – some project modifications could be done with some additional undergrounding that rates, essentially the issue raised inside of the DOE EIS. If you look at the DOE EIS and analyzes essentially three areas; the Northern area, the central area and the Southern are like the White Mountains National Forest. And all of the areas, if you look of the scenic impacts are all rated on the scale from zero to five. They are already either very low or low in terms of the scenic impact. Nevertheless, as a result of that outreach we have done, there is some additional undergrounding that can be done, that will make those numbers even lower without having to underground the entire project.
Andrew Weisel:
Thank you very much.
Jeff Kotkin:
Thank you, Andrew. Our next question is from Caroline Bone from Deutsche Bank. Good morning Caroline.
Caroline Bone:
Good morning, just a minor question really because most of my questions have been asked, but is there anything that could cause you to book a reserve related to the pending second and third ROE complaints, would the ALJ decision be potential catalyst?
Lee Olivier:
There is a potential that the ALJ decision comes on by year end, I think they are targeting in fact at the late December number. And obviously we will assess the merits of that recommendation, whether or not it warrants a reserve or not. So the timing is such that we do expect that ALJ decision at the end of this year. However, the final FERC ruling on it would be the third quarter of 2016. So we will have to look at the facts and circumstances of that order before we could tell you whether it is going to be reserved or not.
Caroline Bone:
Alright. Thanks guys.
Jeff Kotkin:
Alright. Thank you, Caroline. We have no more questions in the queue. So we just want to thank everybody for joining us. We know you have additional calls later this morning but if you have follow-up questions, please give us a call. Thank you very much.
Jim Judge:
Thank you.
Operator:
Welcome to the Eversource Energy Earnings Conference Call. My name is Christine, and I will be the operator for today's call. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded.
I will now turn the call over to Mr. Jeffrey Kotkin. You may begin.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you, Christine. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. I'm Jeff Kotkin, Eversource Energy's Vice President for Investor Relations.
Some of the statements made during this investor call may be forward-looking as defined within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risk and uncertainty, which may cause the actual results to differ materially from forecasts and projections. Some of these factors are set forth in the news release issued yesterday. Additional information about the various factors that may cause actual results to differ can be found in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2014. Additionally, our explanation of how and why we use certain non-GAAP measures is contained within our news release and in our most recent 10-K. Speaking today will be Jim Judge, our Executive Vice President and CFO; and Lee Olivier, our Executive Vice President for Enterprise, Energy Strategy and Business Development. Also joining us today are Phil Lembo, our Vice President and Treasurer; Jay Buth, our Vice President and Controller; and John Moreira, our new Vice President of Financial Planning and Analysis. Now I will turn over the call to Jim.
James Judge:
Thank you, Jeff, and thank you, all, for joining us this morning. Today, I will cover our first quarter financial results, which were strong and in line with our guidance range for the full year. Our strong operating performance results for the quarter I'll cover as well; an update on several regulatory dockets, which are either pending or recently concluded; and I'll close with an update on certain transmission projects.
Before I begin, I want to thank our shareholders who, at our annual meeting yesterday, overwhelmingly approved our legal name change from Northeast Utilities to Eversource Energy. We began trading under the ticker symbol ES on February 19, but our legal name change required the approval of holders of 2/3 of our shares, which we did receive yesterday. Eversource Energy is not only the legal name of our parent company, it is also the brand we're using with customers in each of the 3 states where we provide service. It will not be the legal name of our 6 regulated utility companies, so their debt and preferred stock will continue to be issued and trade under the names Connecticut Light & Power, NSTAR Electric and our other 4 subsidiaries. Now turning to our financial results. Excluding merger-related charges, we earned $257.3 million or $0.81 per share in the first quarter of 2015 compared with earnings of $241.8 million or $0.76 per share in the first quarter of 2014. Overall, these results represent a strong start to the year and reinforce our confidence in our full year earnings projection of $2.75 to $2.90 per share as well as our long-term earnings growth rate of 6% to 8%. Key items affecting earnings include the various impacts of the severe winter we had in New England this year as well as a number of regulatory developments, particularly in Massachusetts and Washington. It's important to note that the net earnings impact of these regulatory orders was right in line with our expectations, so were in included in our guidance. I'll start with the weather impacts. Heating degree days in the Boston area were 22% above normal in the first quarter of 2015 and nearly 10% above last year. As a result, our first quarter firm natural gas sales rose 8% compared to 2014's elevated levels and provide a benefit of $0.02 per share for the quarter. On the electric side, the cold weather did not have a significant impact as weather variations are becoming less of an earnings driver due to decoupling in some jurisdictions. At CL&P, we benefited from higher distribution revenues, resulting from new rates that became effective December 1, 2014. This was the primary factor for the higher electric distribution revenues, which increased earnings by $0.07 per share for the quarter. Our regulatory settlement in Massachusetts resolving several open dockets added another $0.04 per share to electric revenues. I'll discuss this item in more detail shortly. Weather also had an impact on our operations and maintenance expense. Because of the frigid weather and heavy snow, particularly in Eastern Massachusetts, we needed to defer some of our distribution construction activities until later this year. As a result, more of our employees' time was spent on maintenance and restoration and less on capital projects. This caused non-tracked O&M to rise and resulted in a $0.03 per share year-over-year reduction to earnings. This is really just a timing issue, and over the course of the year, we expect O&M to be more favorable as we catch up on our capital work. The impact of another regulatory order in Massachusetts related to energy supply bad debt recovery more than offset all of that increased O&M in the quarter and added $0.05 per share to our results. Thus, on a net basis, O&M was a pickup of $0.02 per share. Transmission earnings were $0.03 lower in the current quarter compared to last year as a result of a regulatory order from FERC that I'll discuss in more detail in a moment. Other factors that reduced earnings as we had projected were higher depreciation and property tax expenses and increased amortization associated with storm costs, which, together, lowered first quarter 2015 earnings by $0.06 per share compared with the first quarter of the year ago. The most significant year-over-year change was the commencement of Connecticut Light & Power's amortization of 2011 and 2012 storm costs, which will average approximately $50 million a year through 2020. Lastly, all other operating items reduced earnings by $0.01 per share. This concludes my reconciliation of our first quarter results. We have had an active regulatory calendar during the first 4 months of 2015, and some of those developments impacted our earnings in the first quarter. In early March, the Massachusetts DPU approved a settlement that resolved a number of outstanding issues related primarily to NSTAR Electric's reliability program spending as well as loss-based revenues associated with energy efficiency programs. Under the settlement, NSTAR Electric and NSTAR Gas will refund $44.8 million to customers, and as noted earlier, had a positive impact on earnings for the quarter versus last year. Also in the first quarter, the DPU approved our recovery of approximately $25 million of energy-related bad debt costs from the period 2007 through 2014 that we had previously expensed. That lowered our bad debt expense in the quarter, and as I mentioned earlier, benefited us by $0.05 per share versus last year. The other significant regulatory order that had an impact on the quarter's earnings was the FERC's order on rehearing related to the ROE complaints against the New England transmission owners. This latest order had a number of good aspects. Despite complaints from certain parties that the approved rate was high, FERC commissioners unanimously affirmed the methodology it used to establish our base ROE of 10.57% and affirmed the high end of the zone of reasonableness at 11.74%. FERC also agreed to an October 2014 effective date of that order rather than a date much earlier in the year. The disappointing element of the order, though, was that FERC capped the ROE incentives on transmission investments so that no single project could earn more than 11.74% even if the project had been previously granted higher incentives. Because that decision to cap incentives dates back to October of 2011, we recognized an after-tax charge of $12.4 million or $0.04 per share in the quarter. That charge was the primary reason our transmission earnings declined by $8.9 million in the quarter or $0.03 per share. I should note that although FERC issued a decision on rehearing in the first complaint last month, it's [indiscernible] other complaints pending over New England transmission returns. Those 2 complaints, which were filed 19 months apart, in late 2012 and mid-2014, have been combined for processing before the administrative law judge. Hearings are scheduled for June, and an initial decision from the ALJ is due by the end of the year. We would expect an order from the FERC commissioners in the second half of 2016. Regarding our operations. Despite the harsh and long winter, our electricity and natural gas delivery systems performed very well in the first quarter. In fact, our restoration metric is tracking favorably through the first quarter compared to a best-ever performance last year. For example, the average time to restore service to customers following a power outage has declined to 95.8 minutes this year versus 96.8 minutes last year. In addition to the regulatory developments at the Massachusetts DPU and FERC that affected our first quarter financial results, there were several other developments on the regulatory front during the quarter. In March, we announced that we had agreed on a process to begin the divestiture of Public Service of New Hampshire's 1,200 megawatts of generation. The agreement, in principle, was reflected in the term sheet that I signed, along with the President of PSNH, 2 leading state senators, 2 senior staff members of the New Hampshire PUC, the head of the Governor's Energy Office and the State Consumer Advocate. We are now formalizing a formal settlement agreement authorizing the sale of the generation assets that we expect will be filed with the New Hampshire PUC next month. We expect to conduct the sales process throughout 2016. Our generation rate base currently totals about $650 million. Per the deal terms, any shortfall between the purchase price of the units and our total investment in them would be securitized. Securitization would dramatically reduce the carrying costs on any regulatory assets and provide significant savings for customers. We would expect that the sale of securitization debt will occur once the sale process is complete in either late 2016 or early 2017. The securitization statute in New Hampshire needs to be amended to allow costs associated with the divestiture to be securitized. The New Hampshire Senate already approved the necessary charges -- necessary changes in late March, and the House of Representatives held a hearing on the Senate Bill earlier this week. The settlement includes a number of items in addition to the generation divestiture. PSNH agrees to forego a general distribution rate case until mid-2017. PSNH would forego $25 million of the equity return not yet recognized on our Merrimack Scrubber since October 2011. PSNH would fund $5 million of clean energy initiatives for New Hampshire. And we would be allowed full recovery of our scrubber investment beginning with a return effective January 1, 2016, then via securitization as a stranded cost post divestiture. There were also regulatory developments for Yankee Gas. Yesterday, Connecticut regulators approved a settlement of 2 over-earnings dockets. As a result of the settlement, Yankee Gas will freeze natural gas distribution rates for at least 1 year and will establish an earnings sharing mechanism that will split Yankee Gas earnings above 9.5% equally between customers and shareholders going forward. The settlement also provides firm customers with a rate credit totaling $1.5 million next winter. We have recognized that credit in our first quarter results. The settlement also meets the requirements of the Connecticut statute that requires distribution rates to be reviewed every 4 years. That means that our next Yankee Gas rate review will be required by 2019 as we focus our attention on improving service, reducing cost and expanding the Yankee system to more customers. I should note that the rate freeze does not impact additional revenues we will receive the by expanding service to new neighborhoods and implementing the state's comprehensive energy strategy. Yesterday, we received the final decision from PURA approving the settlement with no exceptions. In other positive news, last week, Standard & Poor's rating agency upgraded Eversource Energy and our subsidiaries' corporate credit rating to A. With this A rating and stable outlook, S&P now rates Eversource Energy at the very top of its list of utility holding companies that comprise the EEI Index. S&P also upgraded the commercial paper rating on Eversource to A1. Now I'll provide a brief update on some significant transmission projects. Our share of the Interstate Reliability Project, which we are building in Northeastern Connecticut, is about 90% complete as of March 31, and we expect it to enter service late this year. Also, over the past 2 months, we have filed the first 2 of what will be several siting applications for our $350 million suite of Greater Hartford projects. The first of those 2 projects was approved 2 weeks ago, and we expect to begin work on that project this summer. Further north, ISO New England selected a new overhead transmission project between Londonderry, New Hampshire, and Tewksbury, Massachusetts, as a means to reinforce the grid in the Greater Boston area that we will jointly build with National Grid. ISO New England selected our project rather than an alternative undersea project from Seabrook, New Hampshire, into Boston. Later this year, we will file for New Hampshire siting approval for this project that was assumed in our forecast. That concludes my formal remarks. Now I'll turn over the call to Lee.
Leon Olivier:
Thank you, Jim. I will provide you with a brief update on our major capital initiatives and then turn the call back over to Jeff for Q&A. Let's start with what we saw in the New England power markets this winter.
Even though spot market wholesale energy prices were lower this past winter than they were in the first quarter of 2014, retail energy prices increased 40% to 50%. This increase was driven by the volatility of last winter and markers pushing wintertime supply risk onto residential and business consumers. Even with lower wholesale electricity prices this past winter, we don't expect that risk premium to go away. First, you have to look at the reasons behind this winter's decline, which start with lower worldwide oil prices; lower oil prices reduce the cost of buying fuel for the region's oil-fired generation; lower worldwide oil prices also caused liquefied natural gas to become cheaper and more plentiful in New England. But all of the structural problems remain in New England. Despite the higher LNG imports, reliance on our older coal and oil units increased over the course of this winter. During peak days in February, these older coal and oil units supplied more than 40% of New England's power needs. During the evening peak on February 15, oil alone accounted for 30% of New England's generation mix, while natural gas only accounted for 17%. Last summer, by contrast, natural gas had accounted for more than 50% of New England's generation mix. This factor caused New England wholesale electricity prices to average $126.70 per megawatt hour in February, the third highest cost on record behind only January and February of last year. And some of the oil and coal units on which we depended upon this winter will soon be retired. Approximately 1,800 megawatts of coal and oil generation at Brayton Point in Massachusetts and Bridgeport Harbor in Connecticut are scheduled to retire in about 2 years; this, in addition to the 1,400 megawatts of coal, oil and nuclear generation that retired last year. That generation will likely be replaced by gas-fired generation, but we still don't have an approved plan to add significant new gas transmission infrastructure to the region. As demand for natural gas for heating continues to rise, less will be available for generators during the winter season. Come late spring and summer, most fixed energy rates will drop significantly since heating loads will disappear. But electricity prices will rise in next winter as a result of our risk premium that is built into the New England's wintertime electricity prices and the reliance on imported LNG. This seesawing of generation rates is frustrating for consumers since we are so close to abundant and low-cost natural gas in the Marcellus Shale region. But the problem is not supply of natural gas. It is not having sufficient pipeline capacity to transport that gas into New England during the winter months. Fortunately, we believe that the region's policymakers understand that New England needs more low-cost Marcellus gas to ensure reliability, wintertime price stability and the region's competitiveness. The New England Governors and top energy policymakers met in Hartford last week to continue to plan a coordinated effort to resolve our infrastructure challenges and to lower cost for our customers. In Massachusetts, earlier this month, Governor Baker's Department of Energy Resources requested that the DPU open a docket on the means by which electric distribution companies can contract for pipeline capacity for the benefit of electric customers. The DPU subsequently opened a docket to address that issue. In Connecticut, the legislature Energy and Technology Committee considered and forwarded for action Senate Bill 1078. This bill contains the priorities of the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection. It seeks to provide the agency with regulatory tools to procure affordable and reliable electricity for the expansion of natural gas capacity and procurement of additional renewable sources of energy on behalf of the state. A component of that legislation clarifies the ability of electric distribution companies to seek recovery of costs through an electric tariff that is related to purchasing new gas pipeline infrastructure. In New Hampshire, the Public Utility Commission wrote to FERC in March stating that New England continues to have a high winter electricity price problem that can be addressed economically only through the addition of new gas pipeline capacity. The New Hampshire PUC subsequently opened its own docket into approaches to ameliorate adverse effects of the wholesale electric market conditions. This docket will examine the gas resource constraints affecting New Hampshire electric distribution companies and electricity consumers. The New Hampshire PUC staff will provide a report to the commission by September 15 of this year. It is not only government energy agencies that are raising an alarm. On April 1, the Associated Industries of Massachusetts, the Connecticut Business and Industry Association, the Business and Industry Association of New Hampshire and the Maine State Chamber of Commerce jointly wrote a letter to their 4 respective Governors urging them to take steps to reduce the cost of electricity and energy in the region. They wrote, and I quote, "New England policymakers, led by its Governors, need to cooperate during this crisis and allow for development of energy infrastructure projects as expeditiously as possible while working through local concerns." All of these actions point to the need to construct additional pipeline capacity into New England that not only satisfies the increased use of natural gas as a heating source but also as a power generation fuel. As we have said previously, we believe that our $3 billion Access Northeast project we are developing jointly with Spectra and National Grid would be ideal to address our natural gas infrastructure challenges since it would involve upgrading Spectra's existing pipelines in New England. Our project is uniquely situated to deliver increased quantities of natural gas, the region's newest and cleanest fossil generators, since the Spectra pipelines and their alliance with Iroquois pipeline connect to more than 70% of the region's gas-fired units. To remind you, Spectra and Eversource would each own 40% of the project, and National Grid would own 20%. The open season for the project ends tomorrow. And once we see which parties bid for the project's capacity, we will move to signing binding contracts and then bring those contracts before state regulators. We expect to file our preliminary application with FERC later this year and our formal siting application with FERC in 2016. The schedule would allow for the pipeline to be approved in 2017 and constructed in time for the winter of 2018 -- 2019, assuming the approvals are moved expeditiously. Turning to Northern Pass. The U.S. Department of Energy indicates it will release its draft Environmental Impact Statement in the June, July time frame. Once that draft is released, the DOE will solicit both written and oral comments on its findings before the report is finalized. Assuming the draft is issued in the June or July time frame, we expect to file our state application with the New Hampshire Site Evaluation Committee late this summer. The committee will have up to 2 months to determine that the application is complete and then up to 12 months to rule on it. We continue to engage various constituencies in New Hampshire, including the neighbors of the proposed 187-mile road, to understand their concerns and try to address them. These conversations have been constructive, and we continue to believe that our application to the Site Evaluation Committee will be viewed favorably by a range of stakeholders. We are encouraged to see that the business leaders in New Hampshire are calling for solutions to the region's significant energy challenges and believe there is a growing momentum around the Northern Pass project. In the New Hampshire legislature, there were 2 bills proposed that would have hurt the project, but neither one moved forward. One was retained in committee and won't be acted on this year. The other was soundly defeated outright. Moreover, we have expanded the benefits that Northern Pass will provide to New Hampshire. In March, we announced a new conservation partnership with the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation dedicated to restoring and sustaining healthy forests and rivers in New Hampshire. Northern Pass has committed $3 million over the next 2 years to this effort, and this amount will typically be doubled by working with the foundation to leverage additional federal and private funding. In the north country of New Hampshire, we have provided funding for a new broadband and cell service initiative and provided the initial seed money for a job-creation fund, which is part of our overall $7.5 million commitment in this particular area. We expect to receive both state and federal approvals in 2016, commence construction in the second half of 2016, and have the project substantially complete on both sides of the border by the end of 2018, with testing and entry into full commercial operation in the first half of 2019. We have moved the in-service date into 2019 because the later date for receipt of the draft EIS and the need to perform final testing on the line during lower load months of the year. Because of high loads in both Québec and New England from December through early March, we anticipate all testing to be complete and full operation taking place in the April, May time frame. From an earnings standpoint, though, I would emphasize that we will continue to earn AFUDC on our equity investment in Northern Pass during this period of the contractual ROE prior to the in-service date. We continue to estimate the cost of approximately $1.4 billion for Northern Pass. And that could change depending on conditions related to the regulatory approvals. This project continues to offer enormous benefits to the state of New Hampshire and to the region as a whole. New England continues to focus on its need for new clean energy sources and power to replace the older coal, oil and nuclear generation units that continue to retire. In late February, the states of Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island jointly unveiled a draft for a solicitation for clean power sources that would likely need new transmission to be connected to the grid. They include cost of RFPs for power purchase agreements as well as for the construction of transmission that would tap into clean energy. The schedule remains in draft, but we believe that the final RFP will be issued late in the second quarter, with responses due late in the third quarter. That would allow contracts to be signed by year-end and subject to regulatory reviews next year. We believe we will be well positioned in an RFP process to build transmission that connects significant clean energy sources to the region. We do have other potential projects besides Northern Pass that we may fit into the RFP as well, and we will make those public on an appropriate time. Now I'd like to turn the call back over to Jeff.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you, Lee. And I'm going to return the call to Christine just to remind you how to answer questions. Christine?
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Thank you, Christine. Our first question this morning is from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from UBS.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
So perhaps a first quick question, and taking off on the last comment you all made there, if I can ask. Can you elaborate a little bit about other potential projects? I know you said specifically you would provide some more information later. But is the prospect of this being an alternative to Northern Pass? Or how do you think about that as a parallel or alternative to Northern Pass as you see this RFP process moving forward?
Leon Olivier:
Julien, this is Lee Olivier. I don't see them being an alternative for Northern Pass, chiefly because the fact that Northern Pass is essentially hydropower, it's firm, it's fixed, it's large, it has a very high-capacity factor, HVAC lines usually operate in the high 90%. I don't see it as -- these other sources as an alternative to it because those other sources would be a combination of wind and, in some cases, wind with a mixture of run-of-the-river hydro. So they wouldn't have capacity factor. They wouldn't have kind of the certainty that you would have with Northern Pass. However, by their nature, the wind certainly is Class 1 renewables, highly desirable, and there is an opportunity to tap into wind resources in Northern New England and in New York as well, and potentially, over time, in the Maritime Provinces. So there's a lot of potential, but all of that -- or most of that wind would require additional transmission to interconnect into. But I don't see it as a substitute for Northern Pass.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Excellent. And so to that extent do you have any sense on, at least under the RFP terms, what the timeline would be and ultimately any sense of magnitude of potential spend on that front? I know, obviously, it's very early days, but perhaps I can continue to harp on that.
Leon Olivier:
Yes. It's -- right now, we would expect to have the draft out by the end of the second quarter of the RFP. And we could expect bids due sometime probably, I'm guessing, around the late August, September time frame, and contracts awarded by the end of this year, early next year and approval sometime in 2016. And in terms of the total cost that the states are willing to spend on either power purchase agreements for clean or Class 1 energy or infrastructure, that's really not been determined yet. And I think what will happen there is that the states will put the RFP out. They will get bids in. They will evaluate the bids, and they'll evaluate them from a number of standpoints, obviously, cost, sitability, the amount of Class 1 energy that they can bring, the amount of firm fixed energy, the times of the day that would be there [ph], and then they'll make a decision on how much money they want to spend at that period of time.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
But do you ultimately see your involvement in bringing some of that Class 1 wind down into your respective service territories? Is that kind of a ballpark?
Leon Olivier:
We do. We do. We see that, in fact, as a big part of our future. And even once you achieve the common goals of approximately 20% renewable portfolio in the region, as everyone knows that number goes down to -- the carbon reductions go down to 80% reduction, and the renewables continue to go up over a period of time. So we see more Class 1 renewables, wind, and other interconnections to either Northern New England or Canada.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
And sorry, the first question was kind of a focus on the last comment you made. Bigger picture question here. In terms of the open season, can you comment on the progress and the interest across a variety of parties you're talking to? Just as [indiscernible].
Leon Olivier:
Yes, this is Access Northeast, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Yes, exactly.
Leon Olivier:
Yes, yes. I would say the interest has been very, very high. And as you know with -- between Eversource and National Grid, there is approximately 70% of the EDC customers in the region that have agreed to go forward with the project. And then there is a number of other EDCs that we are having conversations with now. EDCs, in some cases LDCs. We are having conversation with some generators with expressions of interest around the line to interconnect into the line. So I would say that the open season has gone very, very well for us.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Next question is from Dan Eggers from Crédit Suisse.
Dan Eggers:
Lee, just on Julien's line of questioning on this -- on the New England transmission and clean energy projects. Are they targeting a certain number of megawatts or anything about firm capacity, trying to set a boundary as to where they -- for the threshold? Or is it an option where they're going to take all bids that could qualify and then decide some balance of size and cost as they deem prudent?
Leon Olivier:
I really think it's more of the latter. I mean, each of these states has quantities for Class 1 renewable. And Connecticut can go up to about approximately 200, 250 megawatts of hydro. That's built into their statute. But I think more what they're likely to do is they want to get the bids in, and they go through a comprehensive analysis of really the value of the bids. In other words, can these projects get built? Is there a counter party on the other end of the transmission line? What are the capacity factors? What is the total contribution to RPS portfolio? The total contribution to carbon reduction? Are these resources available during the most challenging periods of the year, which, in the case of New England, is the fall, winter months? And they're going to evaluate those -- against those and other criteria that's very similar, and then they're going to look at where do they want to put their money.
Dan Eggers:
Okay, got it. And then I guess just on the kind of the FERC decision to allow generators to procure your subsidized fuel purchases in advance kind of in this interim period. Is there a limit in the region where you guys run into an environmental compliance or performance standards at the state or federal level as oil takes presumably more share?
Leon Olivier:
Yes. There is limits on all of these old units that burn oil. They are limited to either so many tons or so many days of operation. Each state is a little bit different. Now obviously, if it ran up against whether you keep the lights on or off, I'm sure each of the operators, including ourselves, would seek relief on that. But there are limits to how much carbon that you can put. But it's different by state.
Dan Eggers:
So is carbon the limitation? Or is it kind of like a NOx, SOx particulate issue?
Leon Olivier:
Well, it's more NOx, SOx, but as you know, it directly leads to carbon as well. And the direction of the region is to move to clean energy sources. And as you've heard by my comments, during peak days in February, 40% of all of the energy we were producing was either from coal or oil. So clearly, the policymakers want to move in the opposite direction.
Dan Eggers:
Okay. And then I guess I'm trying to balance out for the quarter how much weather helped versus normal you guys had. Obviously, continued decoupling of CL&P has reduced that amount of exposure. But is the total balance just going to be the $0.02 you guys saw in the gas utility side and then some savings in the O&M? Or where should we calibrate a proper weather-normalized number?
James Judge:
I think the incident is probably about $0.03. We did have sort of a significant increase in gas sales for the quarter, and 20% higher heating degree days really drove that. So approximately $0.03 versus normal.
Dan Eggers:
Okay. So even adjusting for the O&M and kind of the rebalancing of more O&M this quarter because you couldn't do capital, the $0.03 is the good starting point?
James Judge:
It is.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Next question is from Greg Gordon from Evercore.
Greg Gordon:
Most of my questions have been answered. Can you just go through the -- though, what you think the base case is for the timing of [indiscernible] getting fully through the Massachusetts -- sorry, the New Hampshire process, when you'll have sort of the capital return to you from the sale of that asset when you get the securitization bonds and then what the use of proceeds would most likely be and over what time frame?
James Judge:
Sure. Greg, this is Jim. We will be filing the settlement, comprehensive settlement. We have an agreement in principle with those state parties that I mentioned. We'll be filing it in May, hopefully, by mid-May. We expect most of 2015 to be spent at the PUC up there reviewing the settlement. We do have a broad-based coalition in support of it. So we are optimistic the settlement will be approved. Also this year, the securitization legislation is progressing, and we expect that to be approved by the House and then signed by the Governor in the summer. So that puts us into 2016. I think 2016 will be the period where we will actually execute the divestiture and anticipate the awarding of the winning bids in late '16. We will then securitize whatever is not recovered in that transaction. And the use of those proceeds will be applied to future transmission projects to the extent that they appear, and we could use the cash to support that. Or it would be a return of capital, and we would also consider a potential, not only buy-down of debt but share buybacks as well if there wasn't a better use of those proceeds.
Greg Gordon:
Great. So the earnings power of those assets really runs through, for all intents and purposes, the end of fiscal year '16? Should we think about that...
James Judge:
It does. In fact, there's an increase because January of 2016, the full scrubber will be in rates, whereas right now, only about 2/3 of the scrubber is in rates.
Greg Gordon:
Great. And then you get that capital returned to you sort of on or around year-end '16, first quarter '17, and then redeploy that capital accordingly?
James Judge:
That's correct.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Our next question is from Travis Miller from Morningstar.
Travis Miller:
I was wondering now that oil prices we've had down low for quite a while, even to the extent that a lot of people are forecasting low forever, what has that done to your switching estimates in terms of customers switching from fuel oil to natural gas? Are those -- have your revised any of those? Are you seeing any kind of change there in terms of willingness and economics to switch?
James Judge:
Well, there's no question that sort of the reduction in oil prices sort of reduces the benefit of the conversions. But what I can tell you is that the target that we had in 2013 was about 9,000 customers, and we got 10,000. I think we had a target last year of 10,000 that we got about 10,600. So we've been exceeding targets. And we're pleasantly surprised to see that our target for the first quarter of this year that we had budgeted about 1,800 conversions, and we actually finished the quarter at 2,050. No question, the economics were impacted. Previously, it was a 4-year payback for a resident to recover the cost of the furnace conversion. And now maybe it's increased by a year or 2 in terms of the payback. But thus far, we've been pleasantly surprised at the volume of conversions we've been able to achieve.
Travis Miller:
Good. That's great. And then the political support continues to be behind the conversion as well?
James Judge:
That's correct. Not only political support, but there's new cost recovery mechanisms in place. In Connecticut and in Massachusetts, they're considering doing the same thing.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Next question is from Andrew Weisel from Macquarie.
Andrew Weisel:
First question on Access Northeast. After the conference of governors last week, do you have a sense of how quickly politicians and regulators might actually tweak the rules, specifically in Connecticut and Massachusetts? And then the second part of that question, is how likely is it that all 6 states will participate? And does that even matter if Connecticut and Massachusetts are able to approve the project?
Leon Olivier:
Yes. Andrew, this Lee. Your first question, was it the timing issue of how quickly will they move?
Andrew Weisel:
Yes.
Leon Olivier:
Yes, I think they will move very quickly. As you know, there's dockets open in New Hampshire and Massachusetts. And Connecticut is pushing this bill through. So they're doing this, clearly, with the intent of trying to head off the problems that we see in the horizon with generation with Brayton Point, as an example, and Bridgeport Harbor returns. So there's a strong sense that we need to get a pipeline upgrade in service by the winter of 2018, '19. So I would see that there would be a very timely movement forward on this thing. I would say that we -- the project by the middle of this year will have in front of the EDCs, and I would believe the EDCs will have Access Northeast in front of regulators by the middle of this year. And assuming legislation passes in Connecticut, we don't need other legislation in the region, and the PUCs would be set up to make a decision by the end of this year on the project. In regards to all of the states, clearly, Maine is already out with a solicitation for 200,000 dekatherms. I attended the Northeast Conference of Governors last week, and Governor LePage cohosted the meeting, along with Governor Malloy. And he and his Energy Secretary, Patrick Woodcock, are very aggressive around getting this to action. And that's their statements. No more talk, we need action. And I would say it's equally with the Secretaries of Energy in Massachusetts and in Connecticut. And certainly, with the fact that New Hampshire has opened up its own docket investigating the wholesale supply issues in terms of pricing in New Hampshire, said that they are going to move very quickly. And Rhode Island is already there. So it's likely -- it could be all 6 states, but it's more likely a 5 out of the 6 that will move forward in support of upgrades of gas infrastructure.
Andrew Weisel:
Great, very helpful. Then on Northern Pass, it looks like you filed an entry into the ISO's electric transmission upgrades queue for a 1,090-megawatt line. Can you talk about what that is, why you added it? And is that an alternative or a tweak to Northern Pass?
Leon Olivier:
Yes. It's really -- what it does, it provides us an option. Clearly, in the DOE EIS study, they're studying a number of ranges around the project, modifications to the projects, the different routes on the project and potentially some additional undergrounding in the project. And basically, this option to go with the 1,090 would suggest using a different technology. And it's just an option. Our preferred route, our stated route is this 1,200-megawatt, 187-mile route as we've laid it out to the DOE. But we want to make sure that we have alternatives that could be approved through the ISO I39 [ph] process that would support the DOE outcome, whatever that may be.
Andrew Weisel:
Makes sense. Then lastly, appreciate the clarity on the next rate cases for a bunch of your subsidiaries. Just to clarify, after the NSTAR Gas case is done, when would be the next rate case that you'll file?
James Judge:
Obviously, Andrew, we'll decide that going forward. We're not obligated to file any rate cases after this NSTAR Gas one until 2017. I think in 2017, Connecticut Light & Power is expected to file another case and NSTAR Electric would likely as well. But until then, we're in control of our own destiny in terms of filing a case if we feel it's necessary and appropriate.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Next question is from Shar Pourreza from Guggenheim.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Most of my questions were answered. But just one, on the PSNH generation sale, can you just remind us sort of what you're under-earning on those assets and whether we could see that capital deployed at a relatively quicker pace upon the sale? So some accretive opportunities?
James Judge:
Sure. Shar, we've been earning approximately 8.5%. And the primary reason for that is that some of the scrubber costs have not been allowed into rates. The stipulated return on equity for generation is 9.81%. So we expect to be -- see earning more beginning in January of '16 when the full scrubber is included in rates. And as I said, the proceeds of the transaction, late '16, late '17, in terms of the sale and the securitization of the balance, we will look at what our best investment opportunities are at the time. And we do come up with projects periodically that -- transmission projects or what have you that could use that funding. Or as I said, we would certainly entertain as an alternative paying down capital, both in the form of debt capital as well as share buybacks. So we will assess the best use of those proceeds 1.5 years from now.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Got it. And then just on Access Northeast. Given Eversource and National Grid's, obviously, takeaway capacity as well as EDC and LDC interest, is there an opportunity given the stage that we're at now to look to upside that sort of a little bit over a B a day?
Leon Olivier:
Yes. This is Lee Olivier. There is an opportunity. One of the -- I think, the aspects of our project is that it's, if you will, kind of like a just-in-time project. It's scalable. So we're talking about a Bcf today, and that's a combination of pipeline and LNG storage, which will be crucial for the region. But both our pipeline, the Spectra pipeline, the Algonquin, can be upgraded over time. So it can be scalable over time, along with LNG storage up to over 2 Bcf. But the beauty of this project is you build for what you need versus building a large pipeline that for 8 months out of the year has a very low utilization. We'll have a very high utilization on this initiative.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Our next question is from Paul Patterson from Glenrock.
Paul Patterson:
Just as sort of follow-up on Andrew's questions on this -- I just want to make sure I understand. With the Massachusetts DPU -- this is with the Access Northeast, with the Massachusetts DPU and the Connecticut legislature, what is the time frame they have to act, I guess, in these cases, or legislation in the case of Connecticut vis-à-vis the FERC process, if you follow me? I mean, is there any sort of controlling factor here that we should be thinking about?
Leon Olivier:
Yes. I think, realistically, we need a decision in the fourth quarter this year from, we'll say, the PUCs on the selection of Access Northeast if, indeed, we want to have the pipeline portion of the project in service by the winter of 2018, '19. And the pipeline piece is, it's about 0.5 Bcf. So we need decisions approximately by the end of this year. We will do a FERC prefiling of the project either late in the third quarter, early in the fourth quarter, and then file the full filing in 2016, the middle of 2016. So the timing is that we'll work on getting the precedent agreements signed by the end of June. We will get those before the PUCs in the third quarter, and we need the decision in the fourth quarter because we really want to file our prefiling with FERC, like I say, late in the third, early in the fourth quarter.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. Great. And how much of this would you say is -- of the open season is likely to go, just roughly speaking, to EDCs versus traditional -- more traditional sort of gas customers?
Leon Olivier:
I would think the majority of this will go to EDCs with the potential of -- obviously, we will have some LDC load as well. And then there are some generators that we're in conversations with that we'd like to take gas from it. They don't know if they want to do a long-term contract or do they just want to build a lateral into it. So they build a lateral in. It's like a generator and a connection. They pay for that lateral. But then they have x amount of output, some of which could be very large that they would have available to their plants over the long term, but they would just buy off -- they would buy off the market through that lateral off of Access Northeast. That's probably more likely in that scenario.
Paul Patterson:
Okay, great. And then with Northern Pass, the -- I just wanted to sort of understand, I mean, you guys mentioned the testing and everything that might be happening. When do you think Northern Pass capacity would be available? Do you think it could be available for the Forward Capacity Auction #10? Just wanting to make sure that I sort of -- when Northern Pass might actually be able to be actually entering into the capacity market in New England or...
Leon Olivier:
Yes, I think it's probably more in the 2020 time frame.
Paul Patterson:
Okay, great. And then just finally, you mentioned LePage, and I have to -- he mentioned recently, and I know it's not your service territory, but has there been any -- he's recently mentioned about utilities actually owning [indiscernible]. And I was wondering if that's something that you're hearing among other states as well potentially? Or is that just him?
Leon Olivier:
I have not heard that is a theme among any of the other states that we do business in.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Next question is from Michael Lapides from Goldman Sachs.
Michael Lapides:
Jim, real quick question. Just the $12.4 million after-tax charge related to the FERC ROE decision, what line item does that impact? And you've left that, and you've done this previously in historicals in ongoing earnings. When should we start backing that out, like will that be a nonrecurring event beginning this quarter next year? Or will it start earlier than that sometime in the next couple of quarters?
James Judge:
It's in the revenue line, Michael. And it probably has about a $0.01 drag on earnings going forward on an annual basis. We had several items, as I talked about, in this quarter. The FERC ROE final decision. We had the bad debt remand in Massachusetts as well as the comprehensive settlement of 11 dockets in Massachusetts that were open. The net of all of those was basically a push. In other words, we had planned on all 3 taking place. Some came in higher than we expected. Some came in lower than we expected. But these are sort of -- this is our core bread and butter, right. We're probably among the most purist T&D regulated utilities. So when we get a rate order like this any more than when we got the FERC order last year, we took it to recurring earnings. That's the case here. We don't think anything here should be sort of cut out as a onetime nonrecurring item. It's traditional rate making, which is the business that we're in.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. But when I think about, let's say, the rest of this year, if you've already had a couple of quarters of taking some of the FERC ROE charges, that ramps down during the course of this year. I'm just trying to true things up to what a normalized would be after 2015.
James Judge:
Yes. The 10.57% is what we're assuming going forward is the rate. We still do have 2 dockets open to complaints, as you know. But we do anticipate that, that's going to be -- expected to be within the range of reasonableness, and that will be the rate set going forward. This limitation or clarification that the FERC has made on the ROE cap is about $0.01 hit from what we had anticipated previously.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. And then last question. The discussion about potential legislation in Massachusetts, similar to the one in Connecticut for conversions, can you just need legislation for that? Can that be accomplished via regulation without having to get the state assembly involved? And if so, what's the timeline or kind of the process you think that takes?
James Judge:
We already have the legislation in Massachusetts. It would be up to the PUC, the Department of Public Utilities in Massachusetts, to pursue a similar program to what we are doing in Connecticut.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. They have the legislation, they just need to enact enabling regulation put it into place?
James Judge:
They do.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Next question is from Stephen Byrd from Morgan Stanley.
Stephen Byrd:
Just had one question, just on Access Northeast. There's a competitor project as well. When you look out at total demand and think about the prospects, do you see a potential really for there being enough demand for both projects to move forward? How do you think about kind of aggregate demand and how these projects would fit into that picture?
Leon Olivier:
Yes. I guess the way I look at that -- this is Lee Olivier, is that you've got a problem for like 4 months out of the year, and that problem will grow as these older oil and coal-fired power plants shut down over time. So that the winter problem will continue to grow. And so you will continue to need more supply in that 4-month period of time. So essentially, the November through end of March period of time. The remainder of the year, there would potentially -- the 2 major pipelines will be a glut of gas. You're probably not going to have very good utilization in these assets. And so our view is you need assets that are scaled and designed around what the problem is, which is why we think this is a very good solution for New England. And even with our line, clearly, the demand would be very, very high in the winter period of time. But there would be lots of gas at very low prices, very low differential prices from the Marcellus area in New England during the peak periods of the summer and also, of course, the shoulder periods of spring and fall. So we think it's -- we just can't think of a rationale to build 2 very, very large projects at this point in time.
Stephen Byrd:
Understood. So if I'm following that, it's really the issue of major overcapacity during the nonpeak demand periods that would cause utilization to kind of be an issue if you had both move forward?
Leon Olivier:
Yes. And do you want to pay for that? Do you want to pay for a lot of capacity that sits idle or partially idle for 8 months out of the year?
Jeffrey Kotkin:
The next question is from Caroline Bone from Deutsche Bank.
Caroline Bone:
I'd like to just follow up on an earlier question, that I think it was Paul had asked, on Access Northeast. Lee, I think you said that you'd only expect to have 0.5 B of capacity in service by 2018. Is that what you guys had originally contemplated? And would that 0.5 B of capacity cost $3 billion?
Leon Olivier:
No, what we contemplated in this project is having 1 Bcf, approximately 1 Bcf, between 2018, 2019, with 2018 pipelines coming in service and the 2019 LNG coming in service. And what we would do is we would look at bridging contracts in between those with existing LNG facilities. But if you look at the $3 billion contract, not all of that was geared towards -- to the EDCs. There's approximately $600 million to $700 million of that, that was geared towards interconnecting LDCs as well.
Caroline Bone:
So that spending will take place just now in the pipeline at the same kind of time in parallel to the construction or the expansion of the pipeline?
Leon Olivier:
It will actually happen in -- all in a similar time line.
Caroline Bone:
Okay, great. And then just one follow-up on Northern Pass. Can you just help us better understand what the delay might mean for your capital plans, if anything really significant?
James Judge:
There isn't really any major shift. The spending will be largely incurred through 2018 absent the fact that the testing is going to have to delay until we get to the winter period. But we have -- we provided CapEx guidance for our transmission projects, including Northern Pass. And when we look at the shifts, there were some other shifts going the other way. In particular, we have refined our estimates to the Greater Hartford project and the Greater Boston project as well, which actually advanced some spending from what we thought previously. So the CapEx that we provided start of the year is still sort of valid from our perspective.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Our next question is from Steve Fleishman from Wolfe.
Steven Fleishman:
I may just more bluntly ask the same question. Just in terms of your targeted 6% to 8% growth rate, the move in Northern Pass, the potential shift of stuff, that growth rate is still good? No, this doesn't affect that at all?
James Judge:
Doesn't affect it at all. We're still comfortable with the long-range growth rate of 6% to 8% through 2018.
Steven Fleishman:
Is there a year-to-year issue that comes up from that? Or is it -- are you thinking more back-ended than before?
James Judge:
That's the -- As I say, we've had some shifting in terms of Northern Pass cash flows, but there have been shifts forward of other projects as we refined our estimates. So we continue to be very comfortable. We're more confident than ever, I would say, on the 2 projects, Northern Pass and Access Northeast, based upon the groundswell of support that we're getting, not only from governors but energy policymakers throughout the region. When you have customers now seeing in Massachusetts energy service rates of $0.15 a kilowatt hour, there's a lot of public reaction. And I think people realize that even if we move quickly here, these projects are not going to be solved next winter or the winter after that or the winter after that. But if we move quick enough, we can get resolution of these problems in the '18, '19 winter. So I think there's more momentum for these projects than we've ever had. And who knows, there may be additional projects down the line that would further [indiscernible] 6% to 8% growth rate going forward.
Jeffrey Kotkin:
Next question is from Greg Gordon from Evercore again.
Okay. All right. Well, it looks like we don't have any more folks in the queue. If there's any follow-up questions, please give us a call. Thank you very much for joining us this morning.
Operator:
Thank you. And thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Executive Officer Thomas J. May - Chairman of The Board, Chief Executive Officer, President and Chairman of Executive Committee Leon J. Olivier - Executive Vice President of Enterprise Energy Strategy & Business Development James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President
Analysts:
Daniel L. Eggers - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division Travis Miller - Morningstar Inc., Research Division Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC Steven I. Fleishman - Wolfe Research, LLC Graham Yoshio Tanaka - Tanaka Capital Management, Inc. Caroline Vandervoort Bone - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division Andrew M. Weisel - Macquarie Research
Operator:
Welcome to the Eversource Energy Earnings Call. My name is John and I'll be your operator for today's call. [Operator Instructions] Please note that the conference is being recorded. And I will now turn the call over to Jeff Kotkin.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
Thank you very much, John. Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. I'm Jeff Kotkin, Eversource Energy's Vice President for Investor Relations. In addition to the news release we issued last night, we have posted a slide packet on our website at www.eversource.com, and have filed both the news release and the packet on our Form 8-K last night. We'll be referencing those slides during our presentation. So I'm going to start by turning to the first slide, which is the slide after the cover, and say that some of the statements made during this investor call may be forward-looking as defined within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainty, which may cause the actual results to differ materially from forecasts and projections. Some of these factors are set forth in the news release issued yesterday. Additional information about the various factors that may cause actual results to differ can be found in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2013 and on Form 10-Q for the 3 months ended September 30, 2014. Additionally, our explanation of how and why we use certain non-GAAP measures is contained within our news release and in our most recent 10-K. Now turning to Slide 2. Speaking today will be Tom May, our Chairman, President and CEO; Lee Olivier year, our Executive Vice President for Enterprise, Energy Strategy and Business Development; and Jim Judge, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Also joining us today are Phil Lembo, our Treasurer; Jay Buth, our Controller; and John Moreira, our Director of Corporate Financial Forecasting and Investor Relations. Now I will turn the call over to Tom.
Thomas J. May:
Thanks, Jeff. Good morning, everybody. Thanks for joining us on our first earnings call as Eversource Energy. As you are all probably aware, we had a great fourth quarter, a good strength to finish the year very strong, and part of that strong finish was announcing our new name. Been in the works for about 1 year now. You've probably heard me before say when we started this venture almost 3 years ago, we -- I found 6 separate companies [ph] doing things all their own independent way. Didn't think that made a lot of sense. Told our board that we had 3.6 million customers and they all want the same thing, a great service from a great service company. And we've been working on that for almost 3 years, integrating those 6 companies, standardizing, simplifying, significantly improving the service level, both our reliability, our responsiveness. And as part of that, we've been preaching the one company mantra. And I thought the best way to do that is to get rid of all those old-fashioned brands and start with a new modern brand. And ergo, we now gave birth to Eversource Energy. Our brand is all about customers, it's all about making the right energy investments. We are, as I've said 100 times, in the service business. I'm a nut about service and we want to be the source of all of our customer's energy needs, and we think we can have a lot of fun with the name going forward to make it work to our advantage and to let the customers know that we are -- they are first in our minds and they're what we're all about. Before I leave that topic, I would remind you all that effective February 19, we'll change our ticker symbol from NU to ES. We're excited about that. Just to let everybody on this call, I think, will be in the New York Stock Exchange a week from today, ringing the bell as we transition over to ES. And we will ask our shareholders at our annual meeting this spring to formally change the name. We'll be doing business as a little while, but we will formally change the name of Northeast Utilities to Eversource. So with that introduction, I would move you to what is Slide 4, which talks about the components of our business. I think you all are familiar. We view our business and we run our business as 3 separate and distinct business units. We've got our transmission business, which we are excited about and it continues to grow. New England is in an interesting situation. You know we're in a bit of an energy crisis in New England, and everybody recognizes that we have underspent on our infrastructure even though we have done a lot on the electric transmission side. There's more to do with -- we're going to achieve all of our renewable goals. And of course, on the gas side, last winter really exposed the weaknesses we have, the deficiencies we have, the underinvestment we've made on the gas transmission side. A little later in the presentation, I'll hand it over to Lee, who will give you an update on some of the exciting things we're doing. Obviously, we've made great progress with Hydro-Québec on Northern Pass. They started in Canada very aggressively, licensing their side of the line. And we're going to be working very hard in 2015 to ensure that we get this over the finish line and the people of New England get the much-needed capacity that the region needs plus the fuel diversity of this project plus the renewable benefits. And I think everybody is recognizing that -- Genetica [ph] has recognized that they want to count that as renewable. And I think that the new governor of Massachusetts is of like mind -- let's just get the carbon out, let's not be fussy about what we say qualifies or doesn't qualify. So we're excited about that. We're also working with our partner, Spectra Energy, on the Access Northeast project. We think it's unique. There's a lot of stuff happening in the marketplace and a lot of conversation about the need for big pipelines. We think we have the perfectly sized pipeline and that we are not just relying on pipeline to solve the problem, but also using -- peaking gas, LNG, which we have 3 facilities and with expansion, we think we will solve the problem in the most economically viable way of doing it. On the electric distribution business, a key to it is to be sure that we earn our returns. Jim will probably talk some more about that. But we've had -- he's had a very, very busy year on the regulatory front, a very successful year. And we've removed a lot of uncertainty, deferred costs, storm cost, about $0.5 billion worth that now are earning assets for us. Now we're not only recovering them, but they're in rate base. And I have a simple model that says that if we keep our customers happy, our regulators will be happy. And if our regulators are happy, our shareholders will be happy. We're happy to announce that we have had the best reliability ever in the history of the company and, most importantly, in Connecticut, which has had some problems in the past. Again, we had a record year in terms of not only how few outages we had, but when we do have an outage, how quickly we snuff it out. And that has not gone unnoticed, it is showing up in our J.D. Power numbers and in other places. And on the gas side. We continue to grow, we've been very fortunate. We had a good year this year. We met and exceeded our goal for how many customers we were going to hook up in the 2 states. But we expect to add close to 150,000 new customers over the next 10 years. And this was all kicked off by Connecticut's wonderful Comprehensive Energy Strategy that they adopted in 2013, so it's exciting. We are not only happy that we were able to execute on our plan this year, that we're able to step forward and play a leadership role in solving our regional energy situation, that we've been successful on the regulatory front, but we think we set ourselves up for many, many years to come of good results for our shareholders. And with that, I'll flip over to my favorite slide, Slide 5. I had mentioned that we had a good fourth quarter. We were running through the first 3 quarters -- we were running a little bit behind the industry. And so I was glad we had a sprint, a good fourth quarter. We came out a little bit ahead. And you can see of the EI index and we really outperformed the S&P 500 for the year, and that let us continue to build on this track record we have that -- on the 5- and 10-year basis. We're almost double what the industry has done, and we're very proud of that. And as I had spoke earlier, the $3 billion of potential investment we have in Northern Pass and Access Northeast in the future, we think will fuel more of this growth. That, and our gas expansion initiatives. So we're -- we think this is good news, we think we've done pretty well in the past, but we don't spend too much time in that glory. We reflect on it for a moment and then we move forward and say, "What are we going to do going forward?" That's the important thing. How do we outperform for the next 5 years? The next slide, Slide 6, I think is important. Some people sort of take it for granted, but I think one of the reasons our industry is in favor is because it has such a predictable flow of dividends. As I look across the industry in general and I see what's happening at Coca-Cola and McDonald's and all of these other consumer favorites who are seeing their sales shrink, their profits shrink, but we start to look a lot more attractive against even the GEs of the world. And I think that when you can demonstrate that not only you can grow your dividend, but you can grow it at twice what the industry is doing, that you really deserve a premium. And we think we are obviously a premium stock and we intend to live up to that reputation. Last week, our board voted to increase the dividend by 6.4% to $1.67, and we just think that this growth rate puts us in a special class within our industry. The last slide. I'll mention Slide 7. Is again a slide -- I used it last year at our Annual Shareholders' Meeting, obviously you can see I'm going to use it again this year. The merger that we entered into, really has set the bar for what value can be created if the right parties come together and use the best of both, which I think we have. I think we've taken the best elements of NSTAR and the best elements of Northeast Utilities, we blended them together to create Eversource Energy. And we've -- we put a plan in place, we executed flawlessly on that plan. It is the three-legged stool we talked about with great opportunities going forward. And of course, we are in the right geography, as I mentioned before. The world is looking at New England and saying, "You're so close to Marcellus, you should have low energy costs. You got to do something about it." And now, I think all the governors are listening to us and the business communities, looking towards us to see how we can help them to resolve these issues and get us competitive with the rest of the country. So -- and bottom line is, we're excited that taken a $9 billion enterprise when we put the companies together, turn it into a $17 billion enterprise with record levels of reliability and customer service with great prospects going forward, we're pretty excited about it. I'm very proud of where we are as a company. I'm excited about what lies ahead. And with that, so that you can get some sense of what lies ahead, I think I will turn the discussion over to Lee. Thank you.
Leon J. Olivier:
Okay. Thanks, Tom. What I'll do is I'll provide you with an update on New England's power markets and our major capital initiatives and then turn the call over to Jim. First, turn to Slide 9, and we'll cover the impact of last winters' extreme volatility in today's doing in power market. The scene of the slide shows you what happened to market prices for both natural gas and power last winter. Also, prices averaged about $140 in megawatt hour, or $0.14 a kilowatt hour in the first quarter of last year. And many marketers were caught short, especially during the second half of January, when they had to enter into high-priced markets to acquire enough energy to meet their fixed price requirements. Hundreds of millions of dollars were lost and some marketers went out of business. Retail customers on the variable rate contracts saw their $0.09 per kilowatt hour suddenly jump to more than $0.20. Marketers did not make that same mistake this year. They priced in a very large risk premium to safeguard against what happened last winter. As you can see from the slide, average increase in fixed price -- prices from the fall to winter of this year was 60% compared with about 27% last year. That is why you are seeing a lot of New England utilities with $0.14 and $0.15 per kilowatt hour default in standard service rates this winter compared with $0.09 and $0.10 last winter. The principal cause of this price escalation is the shrinking level of available pipeline capacity to deliver natural gas to power plants on cold winter days. We believe that this winter's risk premium will only get larger until the winter constraints limiting natural gas availability to power plants are relieved. New England's interstate pipeline system and level of LNG storage in New England are just inadequate for a region that continues to increase its dependence on natural gas for heating and power generation. Moreover, the problem is getting worse as New England continues to lose its non-gas-fired generation. At the end of last winter, Vermont Yankee was retired, bringing to 1,400 megawatts the amounts of nuclear coal and oil generation that was shut down in 2014. That's about 5% of the regions projected peak load. Turning to Slide 10. You can see that plant retirements are pressuring capacity prices as well as energy prices. Cost coming out of New England's annual capacity auctions have escalated considerably in recent years, particularly in Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. As many of you know, last week, the New England ISO held its forward capacity auction for the 12 months beginning June 2018. The results were good for plan owners but expensive for consumers. Because it was determined to be deficient, Southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island cleared new generation at nearly $18 a kilowatt month. Beginning in mid-2018, compared with $3 per kilowatt month today, and $7 a kilowatt month beginning in 2017, the rest of New England cleared at about $9.50 per kilowatt month compared with $3 today. What this means to New England electric consumers is that total capacity cost have risen from an average of $1.2 billion a year for the years 2011 through 2013 to about $3 billion a year for the 12 months beginning June of 2017 and approximately $4 billion for the 12 months beginning June 2018. And remember, this is an addition to the wintertime energy price spikes on the electric side we are seeing as a result of insufficient pipeline capacity into New England. The frustrating thing is that significant natural gas supplies have never been closer to New England and when natural gas itself is relatively inexpensive in much of the nation. The low cost and abundant natural gas supplies are wonderful for our 500,000 gas distribution customers since our Massachusetts and Connecticut gas utilities have storage and long-term contracts with interstate pipelines that ensure the delivery of adequate supplies from the Marcellus and other sources even on the most frigid of days. For our gas-heating customers, commodity cost continue to be very attractive. The problem is really the electric side, and policymakers understand this. We're losing our non-gas-fired power plants. We don't have enough electric transmission to bring in alternative sources and we don't have enough natural gas transmission to keep many of our regions' modern gas units online when temperatures fall below freezing. Additionally, we believe that pretty much all of the new generation capacity that's being bid into the ISO auctions will be fueled by natural gas. The New England States Committee on Electricity is very focused on these issues and was charged by the New England governors to implement both gas and electric transmission infrastructure improvements. Currently, NESCOE is working with states in Southern New England on a regional procurement process for clean and renewable power. Collectively, these 3 states, Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island, have legislative authority today to solicit 600 to 800 megawatts of clean and renewable power. We believe this process will occur this spring. Separately, several states are reviewing how to enable construction of additional natural gas pipeline capacity. NESCOE's work on a gas infrastructure initiative was put on hold last year, while Massachusetts studied alternative approaches to meeting the state's demand. The Massachusetts study has been completed and it indicates a need in the Baystate alone for 600 to 800 million cubic feet of new pipeline capacity. And Massachusetts is not alone in concluding that more natural gas transmission into New England is needed. Connecticut officials also understand they need more natural gas for their merchant plants. Maine already has secured expresses of interest for up to 200 million cubic feet a day. With the momentum building, we expect the gas infrastructure initiative to move ahead. As Tom mentioned earlier, we have the 2 best projects to address New England's drive to increase its firm natural gas supplies and its access to clean energy. Those projects are Northern Pass and Access Northeast. On Slide 11, you can see that we expect the U.S. Department of Energy to release its draft environmental impact statement on Northern Pass project in April. Once that draft is released, the DOE will solicit both written and oral comments on its findings before the report is finalized. Assuming that the draft is issued in April, we expect to file our state application with the New Hampshire Site Evaluation Committee around mid-year. The committee will have up to 2 months to determine that the application is complete, and then up to 12 months to rule on it. While we wait for the release of the draft EIS, we will continue to reach out to various constituencies in New Hampshire, including the neighbors of our proposed 187-mile route to understand any concerns they may have and try to address them. As part of this effort, we expect to work within the ISO New England process to review additional project options that are consistent with the DOE what they are now reviewing. We continue to project that we will receive both the state and federal approvals in mid-2016 and we'll be able to commence construction in the second half of the year and complete the project in the second half of 2018. Turning to Slide 12. We continue to estimate a cost of approximately $1.4 billion for Northern Pass, but that could change depending on conditions attached to the regulatory approvals. The project continues to offer enormous benefits to the state of New Hampshire and to the region as a whole. Those benefits would include
James J. Judge:
Thanks, Lee, for that comprehensive update on the challenging New England market and our solutions. And thanks to all of you for joining us on today's earnings call. My comments today, as noted on Slide 17, will include a discussion of our fourth quarter and full year 2014 financial results and our operating performance for the year. We had a pretty full regulatory agenda in 2014, as Tom mentioned, so I'll cover various regulatory developments including key elements of the Connecticut Light & Power rate case; NSTAR's recent settlement of several items pending before the Mass DPU; NSTAR's successful resolution of a long outstanding issue involving supply-related bad debt cost recovery and basic service rates; the status of the Merrimack's scrubber proceeding and our motion to stay; the current status of the ongoing NSTAR Gas rate proceeding and the transmission ROE proceeding before FERC. I'll also cover our expectations for 2015 as well as our financial outlook over the longer term, including the major drivers and some details around projected capital expenditures and transmission rate base through 2018. I'll conclude with a summary of how we've delivered on all the commitments that we've made since the merger. Now to begin, please turn to Slide 18. Yesterday, we reported financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2014. As highlighted in yellow, earnings per share for the year, before integration costs, increased about 5% to $2.65 from $2.53 in 2013. And our fourth quarter EPS of $0.72 compares to $0.57 on a recurring basis for 2013, that's an increase of 26%. The increase in the quarter is particularly noteworthy, given the declines that we experienced for both electric and natural gas sales of 2.8% and 4.8%, respectively, as heating degree days in our service area for the quarter were about 10% below last year. The most significant positive driver for the quarter was the $0.14 impact of low O&M cost, primarily reflecting a decline in labor related costs including pension, a lower level of bad debt expense, cost savings from our IT restructuring and the acceleration of other merger-related integration initiatives. Another positive driver in the quarter was the higher level of transmission revenues, which added $0.05 to our results in the quarter, reflecting ongoing transmission growth and the reversal of $0.03 of the $0.10 charge we took in the second quarter of 2014 to the FERC's review of the ROE earned by the New England transmission owners. We made that change as we think we now have more clarity on how the return should be calculated. Electric distribution revenues provided $0.02 for the quarter, including the impact of new rates for Connecticut Light & Power that became effective December 1. Factors that partly offset the impact of these positive drivers were increases in depreciation and property taxes, which together, reduced earnings by $0.05 and were driven by our continued investment in our electric and gas system infrastructure and a $0.01 negative impact from all other items. Turning now to our operations. As you know, service quality and reliability are always a key focus for us. And the metrics on Slide 19 really show the key measures of our system reliability. Looking at the great trend here, 2014 was the company's best year on record in terms of reliability, as Tom mentioned earlier, and that's after 2013 had previously been our best year ever. The steady and dramatic progress indicates that our customers are experiencing 29% fewer outages than they were back in 2011. And when we do have an outage, it is now 32% shorter in duration. Significant improvements. It's also important to note that we've achieved these great operating results in 2014 while continuing to take cost out of the business. It's a model that works well for us and one that we expect to implement well into the future, providing quality service while maintaining our reputation as a disciplined spender. At this point, I'd like to provide a brief update of the various regulatory items we've been involved with over the past several months, as listed on Slide 20. First is the base ROE proceeding before FERC. As a reminder, in October 2014, the FERC issued an order on the first of 3 complaints, which confirmed that the base ROE should be set at 10.57% and that a utilities total of maximum ROE should not exceed the top of the new zone of reasonableness, which is 11.74%. The FERC ordered the New England transmission owners to provide refunds to customers for the first complaint and set the new base ROE prospectively from the order date. In late 2014, those refunds began, and we expect the refund process to be completed by the third quarter of this year. In November, FERC issued an order consolidating the second and third complaints for hearing and decision. There will be a single decision for the issues raised in each complaint, and there are 2 different refund periods that the administrative law judge and FERC will have to consider. The hearings before the ALJ are scheduled to begin on June 23, with a decision from the ALJ expected by the end of November. The FERC estimates that it can issue its orders absent a settlement by September 30, 2016. There's more to come on this, but our guidance assumes that the 10.57% base ROE approved by FERC in the first complaint will remain in effect. Next on the list is CL&P's distribution rate proceeding. Back in June, CL&P filed an application with the Connecticut Public Utility Regulatory Authority to increase distribution rates effective December [indiscernible] 2014. The application requested an increase to base distribution rates as well as increases for the annual recovery of previously approved 2011 and 2012 deferred storm restoration costs and electric system resiliency costs. In December, PURA issued a final order approving a total distribution rate increase of $135 million, which includes a return on equity of 9.02% in the first year and 9.17% in later years. It also requires a 50-50 earnings sharing mechanism for the next 100 basis points over the allowed ROE. PURA allowed the case to be reopened for further review of certain deferred tax matters that effectively reduced CL&P's distribution rate base in that proceeding by approximately $170 million. The PURA accepts CL&P's tax treatment, it would provide an additional $22 million in revenues. Much of the rate increase related to Connecticut Light & Power's recovery of 2011 and '12 storm cost is over 6 years with a full return. The decision also allowed similar recovery treatment of $31 million of additional storm costs that were primarily incurred in 2013. In addition, PURA approved the establishment of a revenue decoupling reconciliation mechanism effective December 1, whereby actual base distribution rate recovery is reconciled with a preestablished revenue requirement level on an annual basis. Although we were disappointed with the allowed ROE, the ROE was certainly consistent with PURA's rulings in other recent cases. And we do believe that the decision will allow CL&P's distribution segment to significantly improve its financial performance in 2015 and beyond. Moving on to the comprehensive settlement agreement between NSTAR and the Massachusetts Attorney General's Office that was filed with Massachusetts DPU in late December. This settlement resolves several pending matters. In fact, 11 open dockets in total, including costs associated with our safety and reliability programs that were filed with the DPU for the periods 2006 through 2011. We expect the settlement approval decision from the DPU in March. Under the settlement, NSTAR Electric will refund $45 million to customers in 2015 and we adequately reserved for those refunds. Another positive development occurred just last month when the DPU issued an order allowing NSTAR Electric to adjust basic service rates to fully recover the supply-related portion of bad debt costs. An initial DPU decision several years ago would've disallowed recovery of that bad debt cost on a fully reconciled basis. But we were successful in appealing the decision to the courts. We're currently reviewing the DPU's decision with the Mass AG's Office, so more to come on this. Also in December, NSTAR Gas filed an application with the DPU requesting a $34 million increase in base rates, effective January 1, 2016. The overall requested rate changes are necessary due to the significant infrastructure investment that the company has made. Additionally, earned ROEs at NSTAR Gas have been in the 7% range for some time primarily because its distribution rates are by far the lowest in the state and have been frozen in recent years due to rate settlements. A procedural schedule has been issued, public hearings kicked off in January and we anticipate the decision around October. So we're still in the early stages of the proceeding. Regarding New Hampshire generation, on December 26, we filed a notion -- a motion to stave [ph] proceedings with New Hampshire PUC regarding cost recovery for the scrubber project in order to allow collaborative and legislative efforts to progress that may resolve the issues currently under consideration. The PUC has accepted our motion and we have commenced those discussions. We continue to believe that all costs and generation, investments approved and incurred on behalf of customers should be entitled to cost recovery. To conclude my regulatory update, I'll note that Connecticut regulations require a rate review every 4 years. So we're currently anticipating that Yankee Gas will likely file for new rates in mid-2015 to be effective in early 2016. Now I'd like to move to Slide 21 to provide some guidance on what we expect as we move into 2015. The future looks very bright as evidenced by the guidance we noted in last night's earnings release. We expect to earn between $2.75 and $2.90 per share this year and some of the earnings drivers include
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
And I'm going to turn it back to John just to remind you how to enter questions. John?
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
First question this morning is from Dan Eggers from Crédit Suisse.
Daniel L. Eggers - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
Just as a kind of a follow-up to the update on extension to the growth rate. Can you just explain to me, I guess, is Access Northeast in that number both is contributing to the growth and then how is it getting reflected in the CapEx plans that you guys laid out in the slides today?
James J. Judge:
Sure. Dan, the Access Northeast is in our earnings projection. Obviously, the spending is in the back-end of the forecast. We have not disclosed the annual capital expenditures associated with it. We've given kind of the rest of the business, CapEx detail. The reason for that is we have a partner, Spectra, here and we have not sort of formally announced the cash flows collectively. So we're trying to be respectful of that.
Daniel L. Eggers - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
Okay. And then I guess, just on the New England full station [ph] for clean generation, where do you guys stand in that process and what is the talk maybe of some transmission investment above and beyond what's in your CapEx budget related to those projects?
Leon J. Olivier:
Dan, this is Lee Olivier. That process is on the electric side is still being worked through NESCOE, the NESCOE organization. I think we can expect more information on that in the March time frame from the standpoint of what the schedule will be this year. But we do expect that they would have a schedule that would conclude either late third quarter or early fourth quarter in the selection of projects that would be funded through the NESCOE process. This is on the electric side. We have a number of other projects that we have ready for that NESCOE process, some of which would potentially interconnect into Maine and bring renewables down and then connect into New York. So we have a number of other transmission projects that would connect with renewables and some of which could connect into, kind of, run of the river [ph] clean energy as well. So we'll be ready with potentially over another $1 billion of projects to enter into that process.
Daniel L. Eggers - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
So the way we should think about that update probably being about 1 year from now, realistically, once the NESCOE process gets done then you guys can assess what you would need to do? Is that a fair assessment?
Leon J. Olivier:
Yes, it's -- I think potentially late this year. So if they run a bid process in late spring, they announce winners in the late fall or we'll say the October time frame, potentially November time frame, we would be able to announce where we stand at the end of that process.
Daniel L. Eggers - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
I guess, 1 last question. You guys talked about the effect on the customers of the higher FCM clearing prices this year. Was Northern Pass, and ergo, HQ part of that bidding process from a capacity perspective and, if not, does that create some relief next year for your customers as you think about the bidding process?
Leon J. Olivier:
Yes, again, they were not part of that bidding process. They did bid in some other assets, but Northern Pass wasn't one of them and they would bid into the next forward capacity market auction.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
Thanks, Dan. Next question is from Michael Weinstein from UBS.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
It's actually Julien here. So actually a quick clarification on the last question from Dan just before I get going. If you did bid into the next FCA, you wouldn't be able to take advantage of the exemption from MOPR, right? The 600-megawatt renewable exemption?
Leon J. Olivier:
I believe so. We're still looking at that determination, but I believe so.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
Okay, all right, great. And then just going back to the New Hampshire process in general. What's the time line here? Just, if you think about like a go, no-go decision in terms of holding the Merrimack proceeding sort of in advance here, I mean, when we get a view as yes, we're successful, or no, we're going back to sort of the prescribed track? And then when do we get a -- hopefully when do we get a view as to all of this kind of coming together in terms of gelling? That's been in various issues.
James J. Judge:
Yes, Julien, this is Jim. I would expect over -- certainly over the next couple of months, there hopefully will be progress there that could be announced, because obviously, the proceeding is held in advance and the PUC update is looking for periodic updates as to how it's going. So it's certainly I think near term process is not likely to sort of drive on definitely.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
Great. Excellent. And then Access, you talked about kick-starting a process early this year. Do you have any initial feedback? Are customers able to afford and are they stepping up for your products just as you think about the electric generators, particularly in the context of now having a firm pay-for-performance requirement that they'll need to meet in the time period in which the project will come online? Have you noticed a difference in re-activity [ph] of the generators?
Leon J. Olivier:
It's a little premature at this point because we will -- we have not announced our open access process. We will do that perhaps as early as next week, we'll announce that. And then at that point in time, we'll be looking at whatever other LDCs that want to sign on -- LDCs, generators, EDCs and other major uses of gas. So I think it's premature to predict exactly where our generators will be in this process.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
Great. And did I hear you say on the reserves for the ROE case, you took them back? What drove that?
James J. Judge:
I think we announced at the -- when we booked the charge for the ROE case that we're very conservative in terms of what we booked. And one of the conservative positions that we took back then had to do with how the cap impacts your incentive ROE and based upon how they refund and calculated based upon how the other utilities interpreted the order, we adjusted it to be consistent with everybody else's expectations in terms of how that 11.74% cap impacts your transmission portfolio.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
Got you. And was there any data where they came out of FERC, in particular, that would have driven that view?
James J. Judge:
There was certainly the refund that we've calculated and the other utilities have calculated are based on that. I believe there was some language in a MISO order that seems to suggest that our interpretation was correct as well.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
Next question is from Travis Miller from Morningstar.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Inc., Research Division:
Generally on that 6% to 8% earnings growth number that you put out for the forecast, how do you think about the dividend growth off of that? Obviously, we have a lot of CapEx investment coming up and just wondering your thoughts on that trade-off between the CapEx and the dividend?
James J. Judge:
Sure. We are reconfirming the -- we're confirming the earnings growth of 6% to 8%, but we also are confirming that we expect the dividend growth to be consistent with that. We think dividends can grow 6% to 8% over this time frame. We have a conservative payout, about 60% or slightly below it. So we are retaining a lot of earnings every year to basically fuel our capital programs. So we're confident that we can grow our earnings and dividends at that 6% to 8% level going forward.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Inc., Research Division:
Okay. Would that imply, do you think, higher payout ratio as we get to, call it, 2017, 2018?
James J. Judge:
It should be roughly the same, 60%.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Inc., Research Division:
Okay, great. And then just real quick. How much was the pension contribution to the O&M savings, in the fourth quarter or for the full year, to everyone?
James J. Judge:
We had -- IT outsourcing savings, we had an actuarial pick-up on workers comp, other labor-related savings, but the pension expense was a contributor to the fourth quarter, as it was all year. I don't have the number but it was a significant piece of the $0.14, for sure.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
Our next question is from Paul Patterson from Glenrock.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Just on the Northern Pass, the regional funding opportunities, could you elaborate a little more on just sort of the potential process in that and the amount?
Leon J. Olivier:
You're referring to the NESCOE process, Paul?
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Well, in the slide that you guys had, there was the -- you mentioned participant funding and in the opportunity for regional funding associated with the Northern Pass project and I was just wondering how that might actually take place?
Leon J. Olivier:
Yes, okay. Well, the NESCOE process envisions kind of, at least now, 3 different products. One would be for renewable energy, that's Class 1 renewable energy, wind is the contributor there. The other one would be for clean energy and you have Connecticut that, through statute, is allowed to procure up to essentially 250 megawatts of clean energy. I think Rhode Island is another 100 megawatts, so there's about 350 megawatts of clean energy. The third part of this thing is infrastructure. And it's about deliverability of energy. So it's basically funding of infrastructure, which is transmission that interconnects with either clean energy, which is usually coined as hydro or renewable energy. So the way that would break down is, is that Northern Pass could play a role in the clean energy portion of this. And it could also play a role inside of the deliverability infrastructure portion of this. So at this point, we have to see exactly how much of each the NESCOE process will call for. But that's how it can fit in, in either into the clean energy products of approximately 350 megawatts or into the deliverability infrastructure that would interconnect into hydropower unit of that.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. But how much in terms of -- how much of the funding, of the $1.4 billion, I guess, should we be thinking of coming from the regional versus the participant funding, I guess?
Leon J. Olivier:
I think it's too early for us to tell. We really have to see how that NESCOE RFP process is laid out, how it's structured to determine. And really it's going to be ultimately HQ that's going to determine that because it's essentially HQ owns the rights to that line and is the entity behind the participant funded project. So it's really up to HQ to determine how much of that project would run through that NESCOE process.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. And then just to make sure I understood your answer to Julian's question with respect to the forward capacity auction 10 [ph]. Your expectation is that this line would not be MOPR, is that correct?
Leon J. Olivier:
We're evaluating that now. But it's hard to say, but I think we would believe it's not MOPR-ed.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
Our next question is from Steve Fleishman from Wolfe Research.
Steven I. Fleishman - Wolfe Research, LLC:
So just a clarification on Access Northeast with respect to your growth guidance. Can you either be specific on what -- how much earnings come from that or percent of growth rate or maybe if, for some reason, it got delayed or didn't happen, would you still be within the 6% to 8% range?
James J. Judge:
I would say, worst-case scenario, if it didn't happen at all, we'd be at the very low end of the range.
Steven I. Fleishman - Wolfe Research, LLC:
Okay. And then you'll give us more info once you know exactly what your interest is and the like? Is that...
James J. Judge:
Once we know what our interest is and once we and Spectra are comfortable with the cash flows to disclose it, we'd do it probably together.
Steven I. Fleishman - Wolfe Research, LLC:
Great. And just in terms of the FERC ROE thing, just so I understand, so you're now assuming as the others that the cap is not unreasonable, and this cap is across your whole transmission business not project by project, is that the change that you made?
James J. Judge:
That's correct.
Steven I. Fleishman - Wolfe Research, LLC:
Okay. And just in the pending case, is there any way you can give a sense of kind of if you used the methodology that they have been using, what the risk to ROE would be, or is there chance they don't use that same exact methodology?
James J. Judge:
There's certainly a chance that they don't. We actually filed testimony on this on February 2, the transmission owners did and we applied the new methodology that FERC uses, this two-step discounting cash flow analysis, and think that applying that methodology supports the 10.57% that we're currently earning and then we provided a number of other analyses that has alternative benchmark methods that tended to support that level of returns as well. So we remain confident that, that will be the likely outcome in that proceeding, but it's a proceeding with the long tail as you know, it goes through late '16 before we get a decision.
Steven I. Fleishman - Wolfe Research, LLC:
Okay. One last question on Northern Pass. You talked about how it's $1.4 billion but depending on conditions it -- that could change. Is it possible that, that $1.4 billion could become a lot bigger? What's -- is there any way to give us a sense of the range of potential change on that?
Leon J. Olivier:
Steve, I think right now it would be hard to do that. We've had -- are having discussions with key stakeholders in New Hampshire. We're looking at various configurations that are consistent with what the DOE is studying right now and I think it'd be premature to say how much bigger. Is it likely to be larger than 1.4 billion? Yes. I just can't tell you how much bigger because there's a -- just a big range of options around that project that we're evaluating right now.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
Next question is from Graham Tanaka from Tanaka Capital Management. Graham?
Graham Yoshio Tanaka - Tanaka Capital Management, Inc.:
I just wanted to get a feel, if I could, for the long-term growth projections and how much would be organic, and how much just simplistically will be coming from the large projects? Just to get a feel for your incremental growth.
James J. Judge:
We don't sort of look at it that way. We -- as I mentioned, the latest project that was announced, to Access Northeast, if that were not to happen, and we certainly think it will, it would put us at the low end of the range. But we have a lot of major projects in there including $900 million increase in spending and transmission that we've disclosed here today. So I wouldn't know where to draw the line, what's a major project and what's not, but this is basically all organic. It's all projects that are part of our core business that we execute and there's no acquisitions in here or anything along those lines. This is bread and butter work that we typically include in our forecast and have a pretty good track record of actually implementing and executing well.
Graham Yoshio Tanaka - Tanaka Capital Management, Inc.:
That's great. Just on the balance sheet side. Just wondering what could be happening, what the range of leverage change -- change in leverage might be over the course of these projects? What would the balance sheet look like, say, in 2018, 2020? And then if you could comment on the decline in interest rates. It looks like your new debt is 120 basis points lower than retired debt, which is great, and how that might reflect in -- how that's -- what that's doing to balance sheet and your earnings growth projections?
James J. Judge:
Certainly, the projects that we're looking at in the back end, whether it's Northern Pass or Access Northeast, is likely to involve some financing at the parent, not at the operating companies. But in general, we target a capitalization ratio that's essentially a 60/40 and we continue to be very conscious of our credit ratings and the significance of those credit ratings. So we expect to maintain that high-quality rating that we have currently. So cap structure, we don't see major changes, the second question, Jeff, can you clarify for me?
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
Graham, could you just repeat the second part?
Graham Yoshio Tanaka - Tanaka Capital Management, Inc.:
I just was wondering what would happen to the balance sheet at the end of the project? Are you suggesting that the cap ratios won't change much? And then I was also wondering about the decline in the yield curve, the interest rate yield curve and what that would do, what you assumed in your projections for earnings growth and the balance sheet in terms of if interest rates go back up or if they stay low?
James J. Judge:
The balance sheet, you could sort of do a pro forma based on what we've given you here for our capital expenditure forecast through 2018. So we have a 35% or 40% growth in our rate base in that time frame. And we have done a lot of financings, so we've gotten a lot of low cost debt historically. And we obviously have some debt financing going forward associated with these projects. But we don't see it significantly impacting our balance sheet whether interest rates stay where they or actually go up.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
And Graham, we have a financial review as posted up on our website that lists every debt issue on the system, and you could see what the rate is and what the maturity is. So you could take a look at those versus where the markets are currently.
Graham Yoshio Tanaka - Tanaka Capital Management, Inc.:
Yes, I guess, I just was wondering if rates went up a lot in this forecast period, if that would impinge on returns much, and you're saying -- suggesting that you've locked in a fair amount and the interest rate sensitivity is not that significant?
James J. Judge:
It's not that significant. We have -- rates tends to be cost based. So to the extent our financing cost go up, certainly in the transmission business, you get timely rate relief and we have distribution rate cases planned as well. So to the extent we get increased pressure on our interest cost going forward, it's likely to result in higher rates to customers and, therefore, we're somewhat insulated against it.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
Next question is from Caroline Bone from Deutsche Bank.
Caroline Vandervoort Bone - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division:
Actually most of my questions have been answered, but just 2 more. The first is on your gas customer growth projections and what that assumes with regard to oil price? Is that kind of the current 4 curve embedded in the outlook or do you guys assume that oil prices increased to levels that we saw last year and before?
James J. Judge:
It assumes our current level. Obviously, the economics get tempered a bit when you're seeing a major decline in oil prices, but we continue to have great demand from our customer base. And we've got 2 states that are interested in seeing conversions to gas take place. So while the economics might be impacted slightly, we expect to achieve those targets given where oil prices are today.
Caroline Vandervoort Bone - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division:
And then my last question, this is a little bit more general, but things have obviously worked out quite well for you guys since the 2012 merger and now you've changed your name and so I'm just wondering, if you could comment a little bit on your current thinking on M&A opportunities in the space?
James J. Judge:
Sure. We continue to be a disciplined bidder. If you look at the transactions that Tom led, as CEO, the merger that formed NSTAR, was accretive in the first year. The merger that formed now Eversource was accretive immediately as well. So we look at opportunities based upon the value to the company and it's highly unlikely that we will do a transaction that would be dilutive to shareholders going forward. The name change really had nothing to do with sort of being constrained by Northeast in our title. It truly was, as Tom indicated earlier, trying to build -- bring together 6 different operating companies, each of whom had their own identity, a culture, a brand and it really was driven by that. So the speculation about it being driven by an appetite to have a bigger footprint really isn't based on the situation here.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
Next question is from Michael Lapides from Goldman Sachs. Michael?
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
A couple of things. Just from a modeling perspective or understanding what you're assuming in your multi-year guidance, are you using the max on those zone of reasonableness, the 11.74% is kind of weighted average transmission ROE across the system?
James J. Judge:
We're assuming the 11.74% is the cap for the transmission portfolio in total, not project-by-project.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
Right. But I guess, not necessarily the cap, but I'm trying to think about what kind of the weighted average would be and just trying to think about if -- you have some projects that when they were granted, actually had way above that level, the Middletown, Norwalk, et cetera, those are now adjusted downward as we understand it and then the base ROE was a little bit different prior to incentives. Just trying to kind of think through from a what the end guidance for kind of an average transmission ROE across the system, trying to keep it a little simplistic.
James J. Judge:
Sure, the base ROE, as we've talked about, is 10.57%. I would think when you look at the various incentives that we earned on a number of the projects, the returns are likely to approach about 11.5% on a going forward basis.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
Got it. Okay. Second, when I look at -- I got a little confused by some of the comments about CapEx on transmission because if I go back and look at the appendices in the Analyst Day from 2014, and look at 2014 to 2017 transmission CapEx in that slide, and then I look at 2014 to 2017 transmission CapEx in today's slide, they're virtually unchanged. I mean less than $100 million. So I'm just trying to make sure I'm getting my arms around your commentary about higher expected transmission expenditure going forward. But when I just look at '14, '15, '16 and '17, the net number, the some of the 4, isn't really very different.
James J. Judge:
I would agree. We've added 2018 this year, which is number order of magnitude of about $900 million. But yes, the transmission cash flows, the transmission portfolio near-term really hasn't changed from what we -- changed that much, subtle shifts year-to-year. But, in the aggregate, you're right. It's in line with what we've previously disclosed.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
Yes. Michael, I would add that if you take a look at the components of it, which was in Jim's slide, you'll see that there is -- Northern Pass -- a lot of Northern Pass spending that was earlier in the forecast, what we gave you 1 year ago and now it's later in the forecast, particularly in '18, so obviously, there are a whole lot of other projects that have been added in those intervening years that get you up to the same amount. So I think you have to look category-by-category to see how that occurred.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
Got it. And last thing, just on -- and thanks, Jeff for bringing up Northern Pass. Can you just give an update on where we are in the FERC EIS process, and then what is entailed when you make your filing at the State of New Hampshire?
Leon J. Olivier:
Okay. In regards to the EIS process, we would expect to have the draft to EIS in the April time frame. And it could be late March, beginning of April, but we expect to have it in April. And what we will do is we will take that, we've obviously been working on our filing for the Site Evaluation Committee in New Hampshire, we will take the information from the EIS. We will incorporate that, as appropriate, into our filing application. Once we get ready to file, we put out a notice, which is a 2-week notice that basically says we will conduct hearings in the 5 counties in which the line is in, so that's 5 different locations. It would take about 2 weeks to run through the kind of a town hall meeting process in New Hampshire and then there's about a 30 days or so where you solicit feedback and comments, you take that into consideration, then you make your filing. And then the state has essentially -- it's got up to 60 days to accept your filing as complete and then they have up to 12 months' time frame in which to render a decision. Obviously, in the interim of all of this, in the background of this, is that we will be having discussions with various key stakeholders in the state to try to reach what we think is an acceptable configuration and other aspects of the project in terms of economics of the project for the state. So that will all be going on in background. We hope to reach a conclusion on the background discussions later this year.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
Got it. And just big picture on Northern Pass. I mean this is the second or third time, where it was kind of -- you've kind of pushed the CapEx out significantly into the outer years. What's your level of conviction that you're kind of getting closer to having a finalized schedule for Northern Pass versus a -- "Hey, this is still very much in an early estimate and things are likely to move around a lot whether it's on time line or cost?"
Leon J. Olivier:
I think on the schedule, I'm very confident in that schedule. It stacks up very well with the processes. Obviously, this project has evolved over the last 5 to 6 years. We know a lot more about the technology. We know a lot more about the political situation. We have worked extensively in the communities in which the line would be placed or built. Needless to say, the energy environment in New England has changed radically. There is, by and large, consensus everywhere that the project is needed. There is still some, obviously, disagreements about the configuration of the project, which is the things that we have been working on. So I'm actually very, very confident that, that's a good estimate. I think the $1.4 billion, as I've said earlier, it's likely to be more than $1.4 billion, but it's premature I think, for us to forecast that today. I would think perhaps within the next 6 months, we will have a much better sense of that because we'll be closer to what we believe is an acceptable configuration for the key stakeholders in New Hampshire.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
Next question is from Andrew Weisel from Macquarie.
Andrew M. Weisel - Macquarie Research:
On Access Northeast, I think you said, to an earlier question, that the open season would be first geared toward electric generators and then LDC customer next. My question is if NESCOE doesn't move forward at the pace you laid out, is there a point where you would start to move forward on the project for a smaller LDC-only one [ph] and if so, at what point would you make that decision?
Leon J. Olivier:
Just, Andrew, when we do our open season, it'll be for both LDCs, EDCs, it will be for generators and any other large users of natural gas. So it will be for all of those. And so we'll run through that process, we'll see what comes out the other hand. We know there are other EDCs that we have talked to in the region that had reviewed the project. I think it's the right project for the region, so we know there will be EDCs that will sign on and we know that there will be LDCs that will sign on. And so really once we come out of that, we believe we will have a demand for gas that will support a larger configuration and at which point in time, we will propose the configuration through the regulatory bodies and ask for either approval to go ahead, very similar to what you would do on the LDC side of the business, or we will determine if -- what an alternative process is with the policymakers and regulators of the states.
Andrew M. Weisel - Macquarie Research:
So does that mean that with or without Massachusetts signing on to the NESCOE initiatives, the timing would be fairly unchanged?
Leon J. Olivier:
Yes, I think that our timing is good because there will be, like I said, we know there will be some LDC demand. And the conversations we have had with the leadership of key states, they indicate that we need to move on, that the sooner this project gets to service, the sooner we start realizing that $1 billion of savings a year. And also we don't talk much about this, but the ongoing retirements that we have in New England and the shortage of gas for the existing plants, it's going to provide a significant threat to reliability. ISO New England has made that statement. That this is not only an economic issue where people pay a lot of money, but it's a real challenge to the reliability of the region's grid. So the governors understand that, and they want a solution so we're confident that we, working with the key policymakers of the region, will come up with that solution.
Andrew M. Weisel - Macquarie Research:
Okay, sounds good. Then lastly, I want to ask quickly about bonus depreciation. What do your rebates forecast in your cash flow assumption to assume around bonus depreciation?
James J. Judge:
Bonus depreciation in 2014 was about $500 million. So there's a little bit of an earnings drag associated with that, $0.01 or $0.02. Great cash flow impact for 2015.
Unknown Executive:
It's about $175 million impact in accumulated deferred income taxes, Andrew.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
Next question is from Felix Fermin [ph] or maybe Ashar from Visium.
Unknown Analyst:
Just to clarify on an earlier comment. You kind of said that without Access Northeast, we expect to grow around 6%. And then as that project comes on in '18, we expect to see a bump in EPS around there. Is that -- can you just clarify that?
James J. Judge:
The question was without Access Northeast in the forecast horizon, where would earnings likely be? And I did say the low end of the range. I want to point out that the cash flows for Access Northeast are likely to be beyond the time frame here, there'll be, certainly, spending in '17 and '18 but also in 2019. So the comment that I did make was -- it would be low end of the range without that project.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
That's it in terms of questions this morning. We really appreciate everybody joining us. If you have any additional questions, please call John or me later today or tomorrow. Take care.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
Thanks, John.
Executives:
Jeffrey R. Kotkin – Vice President-Investor Relations James J. Judge – Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President Leon J. Olivier – Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer
Analysts:
Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS Travis Miller – Morningstar Dan Eggers – Credit Suisse Andrew Weisel – Macquarie Caroline Bone – Deutsche Bank Securities Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC David Paz – Wolfe Research
Operator:
Welcome to the Northeast Utilities Earnings Call. My name is Vivian and I will be your operator for today’s call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Jeffrey Kotkin. Mr. Kotkin, you may begin.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
Thank you, Vivian. Good morning and thank you for joining us. I’m Jeff Kotkin, NU’s Vice President for Investor Relations. Speaking today will be Jim Judge, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Lee Olivier, our Executive Vice President for Enterprise Energy Strategy and Business Development. Also joining us today are Phil Lembo, our Treasurer; Jay Buth, our Controller; and John Moreira, our Director of Corporate Financial Forecasting and Investor Relations. Before I turn over the call to Jim, I’d like to remind you that some of the statements made during this investor call may be forward-looking as defined within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on management’s current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainty, which may cause the actual results to differ materially from forecasts and projections. Some of these factors are set forth in the news release issued yesterday. If you have not yet seen that news release, it is posted on our website at www.nu.com and has been filed as an exhibit to our Form 8-K. Additional information about the various factors that may cause actual results to differ can be found in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2013, and on Form 10-Q for the three months ended June 30, 2014. Additionally, our explanation of how and why we use certain non-GAAP measures is contained within our news release and in our most recent 10-K. Now, I’ll turn over the call to Jim.
James J. Judge:
Thanks Jeff and thank you to everyone for joining us this morning. Today, I’ll cover our third quarter financial results, our excellent operating performance again this year, progress with our 2014 transmission capital plan, and I’ll conclude with an update on regulatory developments at both the State and the Federal level, since our last earnings call. First, our third quarter financial results. Earnings excluding integration costs were $237.6 million, or up $0.75 per share, in the third quarter of 2014, compared with earnings of $216.5 million, or $0.69 per share, in the third quarter of 2013. I should note that the quarter’s results are in line with Wall-Street’s expectations, despite the mild of the weather this year. Our transmission segment provided all of the $0.06 per share improvement and then some. The $0.10 per share increase in transmission earnings this quarter resulted from a few factors. Last year, we recorded a $0.05 charge related to the New England return on equity proceeding before FERC. There was no such charge in the third quarter this year adding a nickel per share compared with last year. The recognition of certain tax benefits and the impact of a larger transmission rate base provided the remaining $0.05 per share. Another positive driver in the quarter was a decline in non-track O&M costs which added $0.07 to our third quarter results. The significant decline in O&M for the quarter resulted primarily from lower employee related costs including lower pension and other benefits, as well as well over time and storm expense. A modest increase in gas fields added $0.01 to the results compared with the third quarter of last year. This was due primarily to our continued customer growth, we’ve added over 7,800 new gas heating customers in the first nine months of the year. A significant negative factor in the quarter was $0.04 per share impact associated with various tax items primarily at the parent company that benefited us last year but were absent in the third quarter this year and resulted in a higher effective tax rate this year. Other negative factors include the impact of lower electric revenues as sales declined 4.5% driven by mild summer temperatures this year as compared to a very hot summer last year, this reduced earnings per share by $0.02, higher property taxes and depreciation expense combined also reduce earnings by $0.02 per share. While, higher interest cost and decline in income from generation operations each had $0.01 negative impact on earnings for the quarter. All other items taken together make up the remaining $0.02. In terms of retail sales, we continue to see very different trends for natural gas and electricity. On the electric side retail sales was down 1.2% for the year, 0.9% weather adjusted. We believe that all the decrease was due to the success of our energy conservation initiatives. On the natural gas side, the year-to-date firm sales were up 10.5% even with the impact of the cold winter is factored out conversion activity and new construction have combined to increase firm sales by 3.6%. Given the solid earning results we continue to be comfortable with our 2014 earnings guidance of $2.60 to $2.70 per share. Turning to the operating side of the business, I will start with transmission. During the first nine months of this year we invested approximately $460 million in our transmission projects that includes the Interstate Reliability project a collaborative effort with National Grid that will improve reliability in Connecticut-Rhode Island and southern Massachusetts. We’ve responsible for the Connecticut portion of the project, which includes the construction of a new overhead 345-kV transmission line on 37-miles of existing rates away from Lebanon, Connecticut to the Rhode Island border. This $218 million project which was more than 60% complete as of the end of September is expected to be energized in late 2015. We remain on target to successfully complete and perhaps exceed our 2014 transmission capital program of $664 million. We also continue to move ahead on the Greater Hartford Central Connecticut set of projects in which we expect to invest approximately $350 million. In the first quarter of 2015, we expect to receive ISO New England’s confirmation that the projects identified through the GHCC study will not have a material adverse impact on the transmission system. The first set of projects will be submitted for Connecticut Siting Council approval in the first quarter of 2015 with a remaining projects file thereafter. Let me remind you that the GHCC consists of several small projects needed to address reliability concerns throughout Central Connecticut. These projects are expected to be in various stages of sighting construction and in service during 2015 through 2018. Turning to our electric and gas distribution businesses, our electric service reliability metric is tracking 10% ahead of last year, which was the best year ever in North East utilities history. On average our customers have experienced above 175,000 fuel outages and continuing to perform in the tough quartile among our peers. On the gas side, our emergency call responses also better and a performance sit in the top quartile of the industry. So there is no question that the quality of service to our electric and gas customers has dramatically improved since the merger. On the regulatory filing Connecticut Light and Power was rate cased will conclude next month. Addressed order is expected to be issued on December 1st, with a final order expected in mid December. We could continue to believe our case demonstrates that we have been very successful in controlling operating costs. In fact, O&M and the cost of service is $36 million less than three years ago in spite of wage increases and in spite of inflation. The rate we request is totally driven by our strategy of targeted capital investment to improve and modernize the state’s distribution system. More than $700 million of capital improvements have been invested since the last rate plan. The new rates are necessary to recover this investment level. Turning to gas operations, on Monday we will welcome a new President of our gas segment. William Akley has more than 20 years of experience in all facets of the natural gas sector. In his prior experience he had oversight of operations, pipeline safety and compliance throughout National Grid service territories in New York, Rhode Island and Massachusetts. Bill is a well-known leader in the industry with a great track record for exceptional, operational and safety performance. We look forward to his leadership with Yankee Gas and NSTAR Gas, which are both growing in an attractive pace to the favorable customer economics. NSTAR Gas remains on track to file up new distribution rates with the Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities next month. It will be the company’s first rate request in many years, and we expect the new rates to become effective January 1, 2016. In a moment, Lee will discuss a separate legislatively driven initiative that will have all Massachusetts gas distribution companies, including NSTAR Gas replace their older leak-prone pipes over the next 25 years. Now I’ll move on to New Hampshire, where the Public Utility Commission has indicated that before it begins the divestiture review, it expects to complete its prudence review of our $422 million scrubber investment at Merrimack Station. That scrubber has been operating extremely well during the three years that it’s been in operation. Hearings were completed in October, and we expect a decision in December. This past summer, Governor Hassan signed legislation ordering the state commission to undertake a study to determine whether divestiture of PSNH’s nearly 1,200 megawatts of generation would be in customers’ economic interest. The New Hampshire PUC is required to commence the review before January 1, 2015. We believe that this review will likely be completed late next year. If divestiture is ordered, we expect that full cost recovery of any stranded cost is likely. Currently, public service of New Hampshire generating assets are providing a hedge against New England electricity prices as PSNH’s Energy Service Rate is expected to be $0.095 per kilowatt hour at the start of 2015, versus about $0.155 per kilowatt hour of the New Hampshire utilities. At the federal level, we continue to work our way through the transmission ROE proceedings before FERC. As you know, final decision on the original complaint was issued on October 16, and puts the base ROE on transmission assets at 10.57%. Overall, we appreciate the fact that FERC recognizes the inherent difficulty in sighting and building high voltage transmission projects and that there should be more companies that step up and take on this risk and challenge of the work. However, we and other transmission owners have asked FERC for clarification of several elements of June 19 decision. That clarification request is still pending. Also, several discussions on second complaint were unsuccessful. So the FERC designated an administrative law judge in October and a procedural schedule has been established. With hearing scheduled for June 2015, the judge is expected to render an initial decision on or before October 26, 2015. As you know, a third complaint was filed on eve of our last earnings call, July 31, and if FERC doesn’t dismiss that complaint all parties have stated they agree that the second and third complaint should be combined for hearing. So there’s more to come in these important proceedings, but we feel we have adequately reserved for any exposure to refunds. Before concluding my formal remarks, I should mention that we continue to monitor the RFP process to be conducted by the New England States Committee on Electricity or NESCOE. The New England States can provide a great opportunity to develop projects to meet the region’s renewable energy and carbon reduction mandates, as well as address challenges in providing New England with adequate electric power resources. The process has been slowed a bit because Massachusetts decided to take a closer look at the issue. With the elections now behind us, we expect a more definitive course of action will begin to take shape. We expect that NESCOE will issue RFPs for both electric and natural gas transmission in the coming months. We believe we have the two best proposals to meet NESCOE’s expectation and ultimately resolve the energy supply situation in the region. In September, we jointly announced with Spectra Energy the Access Northeast natural gas pipeline expansion project that will enhance our Algonquin and Maritimes pipeline systems using existing moves. Our second project is the Northern Pass transmission project, which will provide 1,200 megawatts of clean energy from Canada to our region and go a long way towards solving the energy supply issues here in New England. We will cover each of these significant projects in a moment. I look forward to seeing many of you at the EEI Conference next week. I will remind you that we plan to roll out a five-year capital spending forecast and provide 2015 EPS guidance, as well as long-term prospects on the fourth quarter earnings call scheduled for early February. Now I’ll turn the call over to Lee.
Leon J. Olivier:
Thank you, Jim. I will provide you with an update on our major capital initiatives, and then turn the call back over to Jeff for Q&As. I will start with the exciting new initiatives that we in Spectra Energy announced in September, Access Northeast. This project is $3 million enhancement of Spectra’s existing natural gas transmission systems in New England deliver at least an additional 1 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas into New England. Like the other natural gas transmission projects that have been announced in recent years in New England. This project is geared to serve both the LDC and the natural gas generation needs of the region. Spectra Energy’s pipelines in New England, the Algonquin and Maritimes and Northeast lines are uniquely situated to deliver increase quantities of natural gas to the regions newest and cleanest process of generators since they connect to more than 60% of the regions gas fired units. As we’ve said previously, the New England faces a very difficult supply situation during the winter period. Electric generators using natural gas did not having a firm gas capacity and there is no left over gas from the gas LDCs on very cold days. As a result, the temperatures drop well below freezing as they did frequently last winter up to 75% of the regions 11,000 megawatts of natural gas generation can sit idle. When that happened last winter, the regions switched on fully and (indiscernible) year-old combustion turbines which have much higher emissions in operating cost than newer more efficient gas generation. Last winter, higher cost would not passed on to most retail customers, because they were able to lock in lower fixed prices before the runoff in natural gas prices. This winter however, those costs are being passed through to customers. In New Hampshire and Massachusetts, we’ve seen other utilities announce winter time energy rates of $0.15 to $0.16 per kilowatt-hour compared with $0.08 to $0.09 per kilowatt-hour last winter. And the economic impact is only one of the winter time challenges facing New England the other was just keeping the lights on so temperature drop well below zero. As we’ve said previously, three non-gas fire generators that were available to the grid last winter, Vermont Yankee, Salem Harbor and Mt. Tom, which together total about 1,400 megawatts, have been or will be retired this year, for the challenging electric supply resources. The Northeast would have a significant impact on winter time of electricity supplies. In additional 900 million cubic feet of natural gas deliver to the region generators could keep 5,000 megawatts of generation online during cold winter reasons. Since we announced the project in September, we have spoken to a number of other regional policy makers including representatives come to New England States Committee on Electricity, or NESCOE as well as other companies that may have an interest in co-investing in the project. To remind you, Access Northeast was currently in equal partnership between Spectra Energy and NU, estimated the cost about $3 billion and expected to come online in November of 2018. Over the balance of 2014, we expect to work with other parties to establish the levels of firm natural gas supply required to ensure both generation and the liability and the LDC demand growth is met. This will position us to firm up contracts with local gas distribution companies and begin seeking regulatory approvals in 2015. We continue to expect to see final FERC approval in 2016 and begin the construction in 2017. Turning from gas transmission to electric transmission, I’ll provide you with an update on our Northern Pass project. In September, as many of you already know the U.S. Department of Energy indicated that would complete its draft Environmental Impact Statement in March of 2015 rather than in December 2014. DOE had previously said it would evaluate certain alternative routes of the project is stepping the process we supported, DOE has indicated that, yes, it’s currently being drafted and is being circulated among the various federal agencies that need to review the projects. Assuming that the draft EIS is issued in March, we currently expect to file an application with New Hampshire Site Evaluation Committee in May of 2015. At that point, New Hampshire siting regulators will have up to 60 days to determine that the application is complete and then 12 months to act on it. The maximum rent of review period was extended from 9 to 12 months in legislation that was past in New Hampshire earlier this year, that refigured the Site Evaluation Committee and provided it with a fulltime staff. Although, state process is occurring the deal we will seek and accept comments on the draft EIS before issuing a final report. At this time, we expect to state the federal reviews will conclude around the 2016. We remain confidence at the project will bring significant economic and environmental value to New Hampshire and New England and will proceed. Based on a two-year construction period we believe Northern Pass will enter service in the second half of 2018. I assume that many of the self side forecast and then you already account for this construction schedule. The need for Northern Pass has never been more evident as New England works to address the challenges of a limited winter time gas deliveries, the retirement of older generation, rising wholesale energy and capacity prices, increasingly movable portfolio standards, and carbon reduction mandates in some New England States requiring that more than 20% of the energy consumed in the region comes from renewable sources by 2020. In recognition of the region’s growing energy challenge, the New Hampshire business and industry association has recently called on the New Hampshire and New England policymakers to allow for the development of energy infrastructure projects, while working through local concerns. The BIA is a statewide organization that represents over 400 companies has express concerned over the potential negative impact on the economy, if prompt action is not taken. The energy situation was also an issue in this year’s election in New Hampshire. Several candidates have recognized the urgency of the situation and called for a balanced approach to develop needed solutions. We look forward to working towards these solutions. Before I turn on the call back to Jeff for Q&A, I will comment on an additional area where we expect to show significant growth and investment opportunities. This is our natural gas distribution business. We continue to rollout our Yankee Gas initiatives under the new enabling legislation signed by Governor Malloy last year. As Jim mentioned, in Massachusetts, the legislature enacted an important piece of legislation earlier this year, requiring the Massachusetts gas companies to ramp up the replacement of identified ageing infrastructure. The new law is designed to provide the financial support necessary to accelerate replacement of this ageing infrastructure. NSTAR work with the DPU and other gas companies had filed on October 31, a gas system enhancement program or GSEP. The GSEP includes our accelerated replacement plan and a new tariff that provides the company an opportunity to collect the cost of these new programs on an annual basis through a newly designed and reconciling tracking mechanism. The tracker would recover each projected year’s revenue requirements. NSTAR Gas’s investments in pipe replacement would grow by at least $5 million per year from approximately $37 million a year now and to about $42 million a year in 2015 to about $47 million in 2016. And eventually to about $62 million by 2019 by which time we will be replacing 50 miles of older gas main and thousands of individual ageing services per year. It would remain at an accelerated level for two decades allowing us to eliminate that ageing infrastructure in a 25 year period. I discuss a settlement of our increased investment in Massachusetts natural gas facilities in our August call. Another element of this year’s legislation is expansion of the natural gas delivery system to new customers. We expect to file our expansion plan promptly after the DPU issues its regulations in this matter. The third element is a significant upgrade of our 3 billion cubic feet Hopkinton LNG facility and Hopkinton, Mass. Preliminary rate makes an aspects associated with that projects, which could cost up to $200 million are currently before the DPU. Now I would like to turn the call back to Jeff.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
Thank you, Lee. And I’ll turn the call to Vivian and just to remind you how to enter questions.
Operator:
Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
Thank you, Vivian. First question this morning is from Michael Weinstein from UBS. Good morning, Mike.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS:
Hi, good morning. It’s Julien here.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
Hey, Julien how you doing?
Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS:
Good. Thank you. I’d first wanted to go back to some of your commentary around reflecting the delaying Northern Pass. Just broadly speaking, how you feeling about EPS growth rate targets in light of the delay and specifically what kind of latitude do you have today to shift around CapEx to address the delay in backfield in some respects. I know you’ve mentioned this earlier at the Analyst Day, just wondering to get an update there?
James J. Judge:
Yes, this is Jim, Julien. We continue to sort of be comfortable with our long-term guidance of 6% to 8%. We refresh that as I mentioned on our year-end earning call. So the reshipping that was on transmission budget, you may have noticed from my comments, I suggested that we actually think we made comment a little bit ahead of our plan in terms of additional spending this year alone. So in the long run it was certainly comfortable with the guidance, obviously the cash flows given the new date for Northern Pass though shipped around a little bit, but fundamentally the real story is the same.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS:
And specifically within that I’d be curious in light of the delay in sale and repowering. Is there any additional Boston CapEx, I know you’ve mentioned that before and what’s the timing potential if that happens?
Leon J. Olivier:
Julien, this is Lee. We’re evaluating the any additional capital expenditures in and around the Boston, Greater Boston projects now. We’re doing kind of the final reviews of the projects, the engineering and little bit too early to tell that there will be any additional investments there at this point in time.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS:
Got you. And just the second question if you don’t mind. On your partnership with Spectra here, does that pipeline necessitate NESCOE or a comparable procurement – state procurement effort, or what is the thought process to moving forward without something like that here? Who are the potential counterparties that you could rely upon a side generator I suppose?
Leon J. Olivier:
Yes, I mean there are two elements of the project. One element is the LDC supply side and of course to the extent that we sign out anchor shippers, LDCs and so forth, that would go through the standing process where you file up the PUC, the PUC approves that then you go up and file it for presiding. On the generation side that will require a NESCOE or a NESCOE like process whereby we would determine the cost of that aspects of the project and that would be covered through essentially the electric distribution companies of EDCs because it’s really an EDC issue and that is likely to be put together and filed, the project announced and filed at the respective states that want to support the project to bring down overall electric prices in the region and ensure that there is a sufficient supply to ensure reliability in the region. And as you probably know there has been a number of states that had been – had abdicated to this process in the region, in fact the majority of the states have abdicated for this.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS:
Great, thank you.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
All right, thanks Julien. Next question is from Travis Miller from Morningstar. Good morning Travis.
Travis Miller – Morningstar:
Good morning. Thank you. I was just kind of following-up on Julien’s question there, do these pipe projects – throw those into the mix in the next two three years. Does that have upside potential to your medium-term, long-term earnings growth forecast?
James J. Judge:
Certainly, the 6% to 8% guidance that we provided this time of this year did not anticipate or include the partnership with Spectra. Again, the projects construction, the spend would be largely at the end of our kind of five year horizon and even beyond. But it certainly would be upside to what we announced at the side of this year.
Travis Miller – Morningstar:
And is this process far enough along or are there other gating factors that you would start including this in your CapEx forecasts, starting perhaps even after the fourth quarter call in your guidance.
James J. Judge:
Yes, we’ll make that decision over the next couple of months is the projects prospects become more than sure, again the refresh long-term CapEx forecast will be provided at the time of our year-end call in early February.
Travis Miller – Morningstar:
Okay, great. Thanks a lot.
Operator:
Thanks, Travis. Next question is from Dan Eggers from Credit Suisse. Good morning, Dan.
Dan Eggers – Credit Suisse:
Hey, good morning, guys. Just on the partnership interest with Spectra, how have you guys discussed prospectively reducing your stakes if you ride another partners because of the kind of the LDC anchor tenants aspect of it or just to broaden out the money exposure for each one of you guys.
Leon J. Olivier:
Dan, this is Lee Olivier. Its really going to – there is a number of factors that we are looking in – one of them is what is the counterparty bring to this investment in another words what is the LDC low that they bring whether is even quite frankly low to generators, what is the asset mix that they bring because for instance one of things that. This project is a combination of pipeline and LNG. So we are going to be looking at the regional LNG assets and once we better understand on the LDC side where the load is, kind of know where the load is on the generation side, we have to optimize the LNG projects and we’ll be looking that other projects that bring in LNG assets to this investment as well. So those are kind of the factors that we are looking on that will determine which partners, we would have as part of this investment with Spectra.
Dan Eggers – Credit Suisse:
Have you guys discussed who would give up share or is it ideally you give up share equally on a project.
Leon J. Olivier:
Dan, we would have an equal dilution of the ownership of the project.
Dan Eggers – Credit Suisse:
Okay. And then on the gas LDC advertise for more pipe capacity. You given the fact they are all supplied at least for this winter. What is the rate of incremental growth in gas demand from the LDC that they need to cover over the next say three to five years?
Leon J. Olivier:
Yes. I don’t have the specific numbers on that. But if you look out the AIM project for instance that’s about 432,000 deco therms that project has been approved by all of the PUC that sitting in front of FERC right now. And that project goes to service around November of 2016 will say, and then if you look beyond 2016 you are looking for somewhere in the region on the LDC side approximately 400,000 additional deco therms or 40% of the Bcf by the 18 and 19 timeframe. So, common growth rates where there is about between the AIM projects and another Kinder project there is about 400,000 deco therms, and even if you looking by 2019 time frame that’s going to increase by another approximate 400,000 deco therms on the LDC side.
Dan Eggers – Credit Suisse:
So the AIM project will cover that growth to 2019, and this pipe kind of fills in next layer of growth. Is that the idea?
Leon J. Olivier:
Yes, the AIM project going to come on in 2016 basically there will be a little bit slight capacity in the pipelines in 2017 and 2018, and then you start using up that slight capacity. So 2019, starting in the 2018, 2019, 2020 time frame for the LDCs you need another approximately 400,000 deco therms.
Dan Eggers – Credit Suisse:
Okay, got it. And I guess this has been a while, but with the change in your leadership and the Governor mansion in Massachusetts after the election this week. Is there anything we should watch with kind of rate cases upcoming both the gas and electric over the next couple of years?
Leon J. Olivier:
Yes, we do anticipate filing a gas rate case. We made that decision early in the year, that’s we were going in December, it’s not really impacted by the election, because we continue to have that as our base plan. And we feel confident that the story is going to be similar to one that we have in Connecticut Light and Power that we’ve been doing a great job, controlling costs while services dramatically improved and the driver for the need for price increase is really the investments that we’re making in our infrastructure to provide that improved service. So we’re optimistic that we’ll have a favorable outcome in that rate case.
Dan Eggers – Credit Suisse:
But there is no policy changes or anything stated particularly out of the new governor that would be a point of concern for you guys?
Leon J. Olivier:
Governor elect for three days and has not necessarily come out with an new energy policy shifts, but we know Charlie Baker would known he has been in various roles with the administration in the state and we’re confident and comfortable that his leadership will be a good leadership for the state including around energy issues.
Dan Eggers – Credit Suisse:
Okay, thank you guys.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
Thanks, Dan. Next question is from Andrew Weisel from Macquarie. Good morning, Andrew.
Andrew Weisel – Macquarie:
Good morning, thank you. A couple of questions similar that last one is about the change in the elections and potential changes. So starting I guess with New Hampshire with the elections that just happens some people in the legislature, how is that all, would that affect the SEC either the site evaluation committee that is. Would there be any potential changes, any potential shift in priorities or anything like that or do you see it as a non-event in terms of approval once you file with them next year?
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
Yes, I think as you know Andrew, may be Hassan was reelected so we’ve expect that the business as usual regarding the commissions in New England.
Andrew Weisel – Macquarie:
Okay, then in Massachusetts that, you said that you expect the RFPs from NESCOE in the coming months, have you – what gives you the increase confidents, I mean, clearly they were waiting for a new Governor, is your expectation that Massachusetts was just regardless of who wins, they are planning to move forward, or do you have some reason to be more confident given the outcome of the elections?
James J. Judge:
I think, the election tend to put a pause on the number of initiatives, because of the political ramifications are taking a strong position. We think that the administration in Massachusetts is support of under Deval Patrick even though they decided to reassess their positions, I think that based on what I know about Charlie Baker is very bright, we understand. So to the issues and pressures on the economy of the state and I think he expect that he would fully support NESCOE. And NESCOE like process to move forward sooner rather than later.
Andrew Weisel – Macquarie:
Okay, then on the Spectra pipeline, sorry if I miss that, I think you said there were sort of two elements of the LDC would go to the regular process and the generation would be more of a unique then, can you give just a ball park of how those two pieces make up the mix of the total project?
James J. Judge:
If you look at approximately $3 billion, the pipelines in LNG for the generation part of the business and we’ve talked about 1 Bcf, so about 900,000 dekatherms really is geared towards providing firm gas for 5,000 megawatts. So the majority of it approximately 70%, so would be centered in around the serving electrical generators to ensure that there is firm gas for this 5,000 megawatts.
Andrew Weisel – Macquarie:
Let me ask differently, if the NESCOE for one reason or another didn’t happen or this project didn’t win the RFP, would it make sense to go forward. It just to serve the LDC customers or is that and all or none?
James J. Judge:
The LDC customers, as you know it’s going to determine on what low you can get signed up and if you look on for instance the 400,000 that I talked about, not all of that 400,000 would be able to be touched by the Spectra project. So, there would still be enough in our estimation for the LDC, we believe, based upon where the load is and where our pipeline would run, that there would be enough to make that portion of the project going forward.
Andrew Weisel – Macquarie:
Okay, great. Then lastly, I’m kind of half teasing with this one. But it’s been 2.5 years since the NSTAR deal closed. Why do you still breakout after tax integration charges when you report the earnings at what point to that has become part of the business.
Leon J. Olivier:
Well, I think the merger integration process as we filed with the regulators is a three to four-year ramp up. We are just now experiencing the benefits of systems integration. This quarter we completed our new financial system integration and I’m proud to say we’re extremely successful, but this more integration to come, facilities consolidation is ongoing. So merger savings don’t happen overnight, and I think we’ve been deliberate and successful in achieving them, but it’s essentially a three-year period. And the merger closed in the middle of 2012. So we are 2.5 years into it right now.
Andrew Weisel – Macquarie:
Sounds good. Thank you.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:?:
Caroline Bone – Deutsche Bank Securities:
Hey guys, good morning.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
Good morning.
Caroline Bone – Deutsche Bank Securities:
Just I guess some follow-ups on Northern Pass. Is a settlement agreement in New Hampshire is still possible regarding the project and if so what would be likely timeframe.
Leon J. Olivier:
Caroline, this is Lee. Its reaching an agreement with government is that possible absolutely. That you are little talking in the first half of 2015, obviously with the elections that have just past that there will be some changes at least from the house side and we have obviously had a lot of communications over the course of the last four months with for growth leaders as well as other important stakeholders in the business community and so forth. And so we think in the first half of 2015 should be at a point where we believe what we would be able to conclude a consensus agreement, consensus from the standpoint that we could get the government another key stakeholders behind the project will have the draft EIS. We expect in the middle of March. And once we have that information we will be able to then proceeding include we think a consensus deal.
Caroline Bone – Deutsche Bank Securities:
So, hopefully something before again the SEC filing.
Leon J. Olivier:
It could be around there that would be early hope the SEC filing. Yes, absolutely, absolutely.
Caroline Bone – Deutsche Bank Securities:
Okay.
Leon J. Olivier:
Absolutely we hope that by the SEC filing.
Caroline Bone – Deutsche Bank Securities:
Okay, great.
Leon J. Olivier:
Yes.
Caroline Bone – Deutsche Bank Securities:
And then I apologize, I am not sure if you already address this, but with regards to 2015, how are you expecting – and this is for Jim, how are you expecting updated mortality tables and lower discount rates to impact pension expense and contributions next year?
James J. Judge:
First, I guess let me remind you that we have specific cost recovery mechanisms in several jurisdictions and about 30% of pension costs have an earnings impact. With that said mostly the downward movement in current interest rates and the impact of the mortality tables is likely to have an increased pension expense a bit, but we don’t think it’s going to be significant.
Caroline Bone – Deutsche Bank Securities:
Okay, that’s great. And then on contributions?
James J. Judge:
Are you talking about pension contributions, Caroline?
Caroline Bone – Deutsche Bank Securities:
Yes, yes.
James J. Judge:
Actually, we’re viewing it right now and we will give that guidance probably when we give the guidance for 2015 Caroline.
Caroline Bone – Deutsche Bank Securities:
Okay, great. Thanks a lot.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
All right, thanks Caroline. Next question is from Paul Patterson from Glenrock. Good morning, Paul.
Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC:
Good morning. Just to circle back on the NESCOE RFP process and the generation component. How will these guys allocate the recovery of the generation revenue requirement component of the pipeline?
Leon J. Olivier:
This Paul was – this is an Access Northeast question.
Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC:
Yes.
Leon J. Olivier:
Yes, it was a NESCOE process as originally designed. All six states would pay for their share of the pipeline on a peak load prorate share basis. If it’s obviously fewer states than six then they would again pay for their load share piece of the project. So that’s how we envision it in the NESCOE. The NESCOE folks that are the team that have not necessarily proved that process, but they’ve looked out at it and they think that process is a workable process.
Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. And then you said in the coming months, you expect sort of an RFP process to develop. Is there a key milestone we should be thinking about in the near-term that that we should be looking out for here or is it just too early to say given the reasonable elections and stuff?
Leon J. Olivier:
I think it’s safe to say that with the recent elections is too early to say. Obviously, the Connecticut, which has been a big driver of this, Governor Malloy was reelected and his administration has been completely intact. In Massachusetts, it’s a new Governor as Jimmy said that we think will be affirmative around a NESCOE or NESCOE like process and then of course you had Maine Governor LePage was reelected and he’s probably been the most vocal supporter of getting more gas into the region and there has been legislation authorized where they could go out and buy essentially 200,000 dekatherms of gas for electric generation. So we think the supporters there – all of the governance that we talk to in the region had been supportive of getting more gas and in a process that would pay for infrastructure that would bring down winter cost of electricity.
Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay.
Leon J. Olivier:
The only thing I would add Paul is that I think the policymakers throughout the region realized that this is not a one-year problem that to come up with a solution, given the construction lead time. The more you delay, the more likelihood is that you’re going to have these types of prices for yet another winter out in the future. So I do think there is a sense of urgency and we would hope that the momentum in NESCOE would pick up shortly after the first of the year.
Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay, great. And then the 0.9% decrease in sales growth I think weather adjusted year-to-date. You guys indicated that you believe that was pretty entirely because of your efforts in energy conversation. What do you estimate would have been the sales growth without your efforts?
Leon J. Olivier:
Now, sales – weather adjusted were down 0.9%. We think that the spend that we have – dampened sales growth, the energy efficiency spend by approximately 2%. We spend nearly $0.05 billion a year system-wide now in energy efficiency and it does have a real impact. As you know, Connecticut and Massachusetts which are the two major states that we serve in terms of load and sales, now has decoupling as the lower the land. So that insulates us from the financial consequences, but we estimate that on an energy efficiency programs affect the sales numbers by about 2% a year.
Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay, great. Thanks so much.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
Thank you, Paul. Next question is from David Paz from Wolfe. Good morning David.
David Paz – Wolfe Research:
Good morning. How are you?
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
All right.
David Paz – Wolfe Research:
Great. Just going back to Northeast, what agencies – which ones exactly will need to approve the addition on the electric tariff?
Leon J. Olivier:
David, could you get a little closer and speak up a bit.
David Paz – Wolfe Research:
Sure, hold on. What agencies will need to approve addition on the electric tariff with respect to Access Northeast?
Leon J. Olivier:
That would be essentially the public utility commissions of each of the states that participate in the Access Northeast project. And we would – we would file a FERC for citing of the project for the pipelines and LNG. And then, we’d be subsequently FERC would approve, whatever wholesale contracts that would come out of them. But it’s essentially the significant approval rest with the stakes in their PUCs and citing through FERC.
David Paz – Wolfe Research:
Great. Okay, thank you. And then just going to Northern Pass, what is the new profile of the CapEx over 2016, 2017, and 2018 and as the total amount still expected to be about $1.4 billion?
James J. Judge:
Total amount is still estimated to be that, but the cash flow is actually will be part of the guidance that we give in our February call.
David Paz – Wolfe Research:
Okay, great. And then just on the gas – the new gas opportunities. Lee that you’re discussing, how much does that add to the plan to gas CapEx you gave out earlier this year at the Analyst Day.
Leon J. Olivier:
It would be an incremental $5 million per year – each year and as I’ve set that works it’s way up to about $62 million by 2019, and at which point, we’re going to be replacing about 50 miles supply at that point. And then multiply that time is 20 years, and if you added it all up over the whole 25 years, it’s about $1.4 billion.
David Paz – Wolfe Research:
Great, great. Thank you so much.
Leon J. Olivier:
Thank you.
James J. Judge:
All right.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
Thanks, David. We have no more questions. So we want to thank you for joining us today. Look forward to seeing many of you at EEI. And if you have any more questions today please give John or me a call. Take care.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today’s conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Executive Officer James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President Leon J. Olivier - Chief Operating Officer and executive Vice President
Analysts:
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division Daniel L. Eggers - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division Travis Miller - Morningstar Inc., Research Division Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC Greg Gordon - ISI Group Inc., Research Division Andrew M. Weisel - Macquarie Research Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division Rajeev Lalwani - Morgan Stanley, Research Division
Operator:
Welcome to the Northeast Utilities earnings call. My name is Vivian, and I will be your operator for today's call. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Jeffrey Kotkin. Mr. Kotkin, you may begin.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
Thank you, Vivian. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. I'm Jeff Kotkin, NU's Vice President for Investor Relations. Speaking today will be Jim Judge, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Lee Olivier, our Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer. Also joining us today are Jim Muntz, President of our Transmission business; Phil Lembo, our Treasurer; Jay Buth, our Controller; and John Moreira, our Director of Corporate Financial Forecasting and Investor Relations. Before I turn over the call to Jim, I'd like to remind you that some of the statements made during this investor call may be forward-looking as defined within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainty, which may cause the actual results to differ materially from forecasts and projections. Some of these factors are set forth in the news release issued yesterday. If you have not yet seen that news release, it is posted on our website at www.nu.com and has been filed as an exhibit to our Form 8-K. Additional information about the various factors that may cause actual results to differ can be found in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2013, and on form 10-Q for the 3 months ended March 31, 2014. Additionally, our explanation of how and why we use certain non-GAAP measures is contained within our news release and in our most recent 10-K. Now I will turn over the call to Jim.
James J. Judge:
Thanks, Jeff, and thank you to everyone for joining us this morning. Today, I will cover second quarter and midyear financial results, including the impact of the 2 orders issued by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission on June 19. I'll also cover sales trends, the state of our regional economy and a number of state regulatory and legislative developments that we've seen since our last earnings call. Before I discuss those topics, though, I would like to comment on the first half of 2014. We've had strong financial and operating performance to date. Revenues, particularly natural gas, are ahead of budget, and operating costs are being well managed. And I'll remind you that we have projected a 4% reduction in operations and maintenance costs this year. As Lee will discuss, electric service reliability is running well ahead of last year, and remember 2013 was NU's best performance ever in terms of reliability. On the state regulatory side, we received a favorable decision on the CL&P storm docket, have cleared some important hurdles in completing our news transmission projects and made a solid start to the Connecticut Light & Power distribution rate case. We are well positioned for a strong second half of 2014 and believe we will earn between $2.60 and $2.70 per share for the full year, including the $0.10 charge related to the FERC ROE orders but excluding post-merger integration costs. I'll now turn to those FERC orders, which were issued in June 19. One of those orders tentatively determined that the base ROE earned by New England transmission owners should be lowered from 11.14% to 10.57%. The second order set for a settlement process, a second ROE complaint that was filed with FERC in late December 2012. We are pleased that in the decision, FERC agreed that investing heavily in the nation's transmission system is critical and that returns need to be supportive to reflect the risks associated with securing approvals for and building major transmission projects. However, we believe there were significant flaws and uncertainties in the FERC's orders. Last week, we and other New England transmission owners requested that FERC reconsider both orders. So both cases are still pending. But as a result of those orders, we have now set aside approximately $80 million of potential refunds or about $46 million after tax. About $55 million of that sum was recognized in the second quarter of 2014, and the remaining $25 million was recognized in the third quarter of 2013. The first order issued by FERC on June 19 dealt with a complaint that was filed by various parties back in September of 2011 and dealt exclusively with the base 11.14% ROE that became effective for New England transmission owners back in 2006. That complaint did not address the various incentives that FERC has approved for various large projects in New England, and there was no testimony in the case about those incentives. We strongly believe that the incentive adders should not be changed. We also have asked FERC to clarify that the high end of the zone of reasonableness it is establishing in this case, which tentatively has been set at 11.74% pending a final order, would apply to utilities' total transmission ROE and not each project's ROE. In our other request for consideration, we have asked FERC to reconsider taking up the second complaint, since by doing so it contradicted both Commission precedent and federal statutes. Specifically, we firmly believe that the first complaint and the second complaint were essentially identical and should have been handled in a single docket. Moreover, the Federal Power Act precludes implementing a second 15-month refund period in a similar case beyond the initial 15 months. I should add that late yesterday, the same parties in the first and second complaint actually filed a third complaint, arguing the same points. It remains to be seen if FERC decides to hear or dismiss this complaint. It's only been 5 or 6 weeks since FERC decided the appropriate ROE for the New England transmission owners. The after-tax charge of $32.1 million in the second quarter of 2014 relates to transmission earnings we had booked during the period of October 1, 2011, through March 31, 2014. The third quarter charge booked last year dealt exclusively with the period of late 2011 and full year 2012. So what that means is nearly 90% of the charges taken relate to 2011, 2012 and 2013. Of course, if we're ultimately successful on one or both of these requests for reconsideration, we will reverse some or all of these charges in the future. While we certainly hope these orders will be modified before they are finalized, the additional insight into how FERC will compute transmission ROEs should be helpful to our investors since they will be able to more confidently project our future transmission earnings growth. And because the New England complaint was the first filed and the first decided, we now have a degree of clarity that many other transmission owners around the country don't yet have since complaints about their transmission ROEs have not yet advanced to the decision phase. That $0.10 charge was the primary reason for the earnings decline that we announced yesterday. Excluding integration costs, we earned $131.9 million, or $0.42 per share, in the second quarter of 2014 compared with earnings of $172.8 million or $0.55 per share in the second quarter of 2013. I know there was a pretty big gap between consensus estimates for the second quarter, which were around $0.50 per share, and our results. But most of that was due to the fact that only some of the quarterly estimates on The Street reflected the FERC charge. If they had all included the charge, consensus would have been around $0.45 per share. I'll provide some details on the other factors that drove second quarter 2014 results. The theme here is that a number of small, discrete items went in our favor in the second quarter of 2013 and against us in the second quarter of 2014 but that overall, the year looks very good. First, I'll cover transmission. Core transmission business continues to grow. Increased transmission rate base added $3.8 million to earnings this quarter and $6.5 million through June of this year compared with the same period of 2013. However, there were a number of true-ups under our tariff that helped us last year and hurt us this year, which together more than offset the growth in rate base as we placed more of our transmission projects in service. Overall, aside from the reserve, second quarter transmission earnings decreased about $0.01 per share from last year. Other factors that negatively impacted the quarter included
Leon J. Olivier:
Thank you, Jim. I will provide you with an update on our major capital projects and our natural gas expansion initiatives, and then turn the call back to Jeff for Q&As. You will recall that during our Analyst Day 6 months ago, I noted that we had a base capital forecast for our transmission and natural gas delivery business that could grow meaningfully as we identified additional [indiscernible] to include in our forecasts. Now, 6 months later, I'm going to update you on some of those projects. And I should add that we are not done yet as New England's energy delivery infrastructure continues to change rapidly as the region decarbonizes its fuel mix and depends more on natural gas and renewables to power the economy. I will start our detailed update on transmission and our NU's family of projects. We commenced construction of our $218 million section of the Interstate Reliability Project in March. And as of June 30, the project was approximately 40% complete. We are building the approximately 40-mile Connecticut section of the project, and the National Grid is building Rhode Island and Massachusetts sections. National Grid received its final permit in May, and we expect all sections of the project will be completed by the end of 2014. Turning now to the Greater Hartford Central Connecticut Reliability Project. In mid-July, ISO New England Planning and Advisory Committee met to discuss the series of solutions necessary to remedy overload and low-voltage conditions that exist today or will emerge in the near future across Central and Western Connecticut. You may recall that initially, we had expected that a single new prequalified kV transmission line from Hartford -- from the Hartford area to Waterbury area would resolve transmission issues in the region. Over time, that has evolved into a series of substation and line upgrades, primarily on the 115-kV system. Due to a larger scope of work, we now estimate that those upgrades will cost approximately $350 million compared with our earlier projection of $300 million. We expect to commence construction in the second half of 2015 and complete all construction in late 2017. We intended to comprehensively update you on our long-term transmission capital investment plan in early 2015, one that will include the refined estimate for the Greater Hartford and other updates. We continue to estimate a transmission capital spending of $664 million this year and have invested $272 million in the transmission system through June. While our detailed forecast only continues through 2017, I did indicate during our Analyst Day that we had identified between $340 million and $400 million of reliability projects in our service territory for 2018. We continue to work on plans for those out years, but our current estimate for our reliability projects for 2018 is now $450 million to $500 million, up $100 million from our Analyst Day estimate just 5 months ago. Those additional investments will be almost all of the NSTAR [ph] Northeast's franchise, and they involve a combination of a new substation just outside of Boston, a higher estimate for the Boston reliability project and additional physical security and enhancements in a number of other smaller initiatives. Turning to Northern Pass. The U.S. Department of Energy continues to work on its draft Environmental Impact Statement and is currently conducting fieldwork on the alternative routes they identified earlier this year. DOE has posted a target date of December 2014 on its website to issue its draft EIS. Once it is issued, DOE will accept public comments before issuing a final EIS. Once we receive the draft EIS, we will be in a position to file our application with the New Hampshire Site Evaluation Committee. We continue to discuss the project with key constituencies in New Hampshire, including businesses, labor and environmental groups and public policy leaders. There's a widespread feeling that the project is needed. The past month has shown us how tenuous New England's nuclear electricity supply situation has become, and we know that this coming winter could well be worse, given no new firm natural gas supplies reaching the region, compounded by a number of non-gas generators being retired. Two Boston Edison [indiscernible] will retire at the end of May, and the Vermont Yankee Nuclear power plant is due to retire at the end of this year. Additionally, the current owner of the nearly 150-megawatt Mt. Tom in Western Massachusetts announced in June that it would shut down for good this year. The close of those units will reduce New England's non-gas firing supply by approximately 1,400 megawatts. So if you think about it, Northern Pass will not be using [indiscernible] all its capacity [indiscernible] in 2014. And much more capacity is scheduled to be retired by 2017. Northern Pass is clearly a project that we need, and it has a growing base of support in New Hampshire-Canada region. We firmly expect to build an even broader consensus that allows the project to continue to move along in the public permitting process. So before moving on to other potential transmission opportunities, let me mention that we had additional leadership in our transmission organization effective this spring. We have a new transmission Vice President, Kathie Shea, who successfully developed our NUs projects over the last 7 years. Kathy has assumed the role of Vice President of Transmission Development. In that role, she is looking at the new competitive transmission landscape, both inside and outside New England, which would include FERC Order 1000 projects and other potential partnerships. We've had numerous inquiries from many potential partners who find NU's transmission development expertise and financial strength to be very appealing. Additionally, we believe that the 6-day NESCOE process that Jim discussed earlier will provide a great opportunity to develop non-reliability transmission projects that we believe in and renewable energy and carbon reduction mandates. We're now reviewing a number of opportunities that would be suitable to bid into this electric transmission RFP. Moving on to natural gas. Jim noted our very strong sales this year. This occurred not only due to cold weather but also due to each company's increased customer count. In the first half of 2014, we added 4,540 new space heating customers and continue to expect to add about 10,000 customers this year. We continue to see strong interest in natural gas [indiscernible] not only from the individual homes and business owners but from entire municipalities. On July 7, Yankee Gas reached agreement with the town of Wilton, Connecticut on the terms of our first large-scale gas expansion project. We -- Wilton currently has very limited gas/electric infrastructure. The proposed expansion will add 4 miles of new delivery infrastructure to the town for 2015 for our gas service to municipal buildings and a variety of commercial and other residential customers. The new incremental consumption alone on its first pass will be approximately 70,000 Mcf, an amount equivalent to an annual consumption of approximately 800 residential customers. Yankee's Wilton expansion is the largest expansion project to be proposed under Connecticut's Comprehensive Energy Strategy thus far. Yankee is also evaluating several other large-scale expansion projects and are in discussions with those towns at this time. Jim has also noted that the new natural gas pipe replacement and extension legislation signed by Governor Patrick earlier this summer. Overall, the -- over the next decade, we now see 3 primary drivers in a significant expansion of our Massachusetts natural gas business. The first driver is deployment under legislation to replace cast-iron, unprotected, bare steel gas main over the next 2 decades. The second driver is the requirement in the new legislation that all Massachusetts natural gas distribution companies develop expansion plans. We're working to clarify and understand the filing schedule and the requirements. Once the plan is filed, the DPU will have approximately 8 months to approve it. The third driver is our need to make additional investments in our 3.2 billion cubic feet, or Bcf, Hopkinton LNG storage facility. Because that facility is owned by an NU affiliate other than NSTAR Gas, we are working with the DPU on the mechanism to recover the significant incremental investments we will need to make in the facility. At our Analyst Day in February, we indicated that there could be an upside to both our electric transmission and our natural gas distribution capital forecast. Our February forecast included capital investments in our natural gas segment of approximately $215 million a year from 2015 through 2017. So 3 years. With the Massachusetts legislation initiative, that spending is likely to increase and we're now reassessing those future investments. Finally, I should note that our electric service reliability was very good in the first half of 2014. We have seen about a 25% improvement in overall reliability this year as compared to the first half of 2013 with 200,000 fewer customers interrupted and those customers that were interrupted, on average, being restored at least 10 minutes sooner than last year. So now I'd like to turn the call back over to Jeff for Q&A.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
Thank you very much, Lee. And I'm going to turn it back to Vivian just to remind you how to pose a question.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
First question this morning is from Julien Dumoulin-Smith.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
So first, if you can expand a little bit. You talked about potential opportunities on the gas side. Obviously, NESCOE's got its own process going on here. Can you elaborate a little bit as to where you see these -- where you see that going? Could this ultimately result in ownership in midstream as well?
James J. Judge:
Yes, this is Jim, Julian. Yes, it could. As you may be aware, that -- NU, UIL and National Grid filed a proposal to NESCOE indicating that to the extent that the generators won't step up and commit to pipeline capacity for their electric generating units and the pipeline companies themselves tend not to be their business model to build on spec, we think that the utilities could play an ownership role, partnering in a project that would solve the issue. And costs could be paid for by the customers that benefit from it, which would be the electric customers throughout the region. So that will involve ownership potentially.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
Got you. How big of an ownership do you think? I mean, could you kind of elaborate in terms of your thought process and timeline on getting that -- a decent proposal here?
James J. Judge:
I really can't comment at this time. Obviously, pipelines are capital intensive to build and would depend upon the route and the design. But we would expect to see a significant investment if we were to go forward with the project along those lines.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
Excellent. And then at the time of the Analyst Day, you talked about potentially accelerating certain capital investments depending on what happened with NPT and other factors. Can you elaborate a little bit on the potential for the acceleration? I suppose some of that was tied to the Boston-related investments.
Leon J. Olivier:
Yes, this is Lee Olivier, Julien. And if you think about it, we've added another $50 million to the Greater Hartford Central Connecticut Project over the period of 2015 to 2017. And we added $100 million, most of it in the Greater Boston area, and some of it is with the Greater Boston project. We also have the new substation we're building in Somerville, Massachusetts, new physical security that is required through the NERC and FERC requirements. And other upgrades in substations and replacement of aging infrastructure. So that adds $100 million. So this is $150 million. And we talked about the gas business. We had numbers in there from '15 through '17 of $250 million, and there's potentially up to approximately $150 million, $160 million more investment during that period as well. So net, over $300 million.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
Excellent. And just a last question, kind of bigger picture here. I mean, what's your reaction ultimately to the latest quarter -- the last FERC order on transmission? I mean, does this change tactically your view in terms of investment in one bucket versus another? Or in terms of coming back to FERC, I mean, how are you thinking about positioning the subject going forward?
James J. Judge:
Well, the 10.57% ROE was actually in line with, I think, The Street's expectations. And if you look at what we reserved for that first complaint in the third quarter of last year, it was right in line with the outcome. So that was not a surprise. What was a surprise was what we see as a change in precedent if FERC is going to allow a second complaint to be heard and, more importantly, the impact that we interpret the order to be on incentives. There was no record on incentives established in the case, yet the consequences of the new mechanism that FERC is proposing is to dampen incentives. We entered into projects for complex, innovative technology. We're incented to do so. And the consequences of this order is to actually cut into those incentives that were awarded. So we have some real issues with the way that the 2 orders came out. However, we still see the transmission business as attractive business to be in. I don't think the 10.57% is particularly punitive. So it's clearly a big part of our business strategy going forward, but we would like to see resolution of these concerns that we have.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
Thank you, Julien. Our next questions comes from Dan Eggers from Crédit Suisse.
Daniel L. Eggers - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
Can I -- just on the gas volume and kind of the strength this year relative to the customer additions, if you were to break down that 4% of load growth, how much of that is being driven by the conversion part of the business and how much is being driven by just greater usage?
Leon J. Olivier:
I think a big part -- actually, there's probably -- obviously, the economy is improving, particularly in, obviously, the Greater Boston Area and in Stamford now where there's about $4 billion of construction going on there. So between the new customers and the series of high-rise, mid-space buildings that were coming up that need gas and the customers that we have connected over the course of the last 4 to 5 years, I think the majority was driven by either customers that have come online over the past few years and new customers that are coming online right now.
James J. Judge:
Dan, maybe another observation is we're adding about 10,000 customers a year to a 500,000 customer base. So just the customer kind of alone is a 2% increase. So not every customer, obviously, takes the same sort of load, but I think it's a combination of both increased usage per customer as well as increased volume of customers that we're adding.
Daniel L. Eggers - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
Okay. And then I guess on the NESCOE pipe, I guess your RFP is supposed to be kind of addressed by year end. Is that still a realistic timeline from your perspective? And what will we expect to hear in the investment community once your RFP is completed?
Leon J. Olivier:
Yes, the -- again, it's Lee Olivier, the NESCOE will provide a schedule next month. So September, essentially, they will provide a schedule that will take us all the ways through to the selection of the successful bids and the awarding of the bids, the filing of the FERC applications, both in gas and electric. So we will expect to get a schedule on that in the September timeframe.
Daniel L. Eggers - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
Okay. And I guess so I understand this, how are you guys going to structure this from a rate perspective? Have you figured out how to see it put into rates for the utilities to cover their cost? And are you going to run into any issues with FERC as far as rate design given the fact that you're probably going to pass through a gas cost through an electric bill?
Leon J. Olivier:
Yes. Well, the ISO New England will file the tariff, and the EDC customers will collect the tariff. And obviously, they'll go through a state process as well. But it will be -- ISO New England will file for a tariff. And I think the electric transmission aspect of that would be very straightforward. There's precedent to do that. Probably not a lot of precedent on the gas side. That could be a little more difficult. However, there is a strong consensus with all of the leaders in New England, the governors, the -- most of the congressional delegation who understand the need and understand the risk that the region is facing. So with strong congressional delegation support for this with FERC, we believe this will be successful.
Daniel L. Eggers - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
And I appreciate the NESCOE opportunity. When you guys spend more time kind of reflecting and strategizing for this coming winter from a reliability perspective and given the gains in gas customer usage, have you guys come up with any other solutions to help further enhance reliability this winter? And if demand response rules change on this FERC decision, is that going to incrementally complicate electric deliveries?
Leon J. Olivier:
I think on the gas side, clearly we have all the gas lined up for our customers on the gas side. So for all the LDC customers, they will have firm gas supply and that will not be an issue. FERC will -- not FERC, but ISO New England is in the process of doing another kind of fuel supply plan this year. Last year, they did -- they purchased X amount of oil for the generators, kind of gas-fired generators, that could burn oil as a backup. We were one of those participants with our New England plan. ISO has a similar scheme that's slightly different but is similar to last year. So we believe that there'll be sufficient oil. We've also included LNG in the mix for generators, so LNG that could be purchased and gasified for generators. So right now, that is the plan. I wouldn't speculate on what would happen around the DSN decision right now, but we're going to end up going through the winter with about 1,400 megawatts or less non-gas-fired power plants, both nuclear and coal. There are the plants that ran continuously over the winter, so -- last winter. So it's going to be very, very challenging to get through this winter. So you're looking at a situation where you'd have the loss of one large unit, one 1,200-megawatt nuclear unit, where there could be serious threats and challenge to the reliability of the region. So it's an impetus to get moving on the NESCOE initiative for both electric transmission and gas-fired plants.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
Thanks, Dan. Our next question is from Travis Miller from MorningStar.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Inc., Research Division:
On the transmission charges, if I understand, it sounds like you guys have taken the charges for everything retroactive or backward looking. At what point do you leave in that $0.05 ongoing earnings or any additional charges as we move forward? Just give me a sense for that forward look.
James J. Judge:
Yes, well, the consequences of the new mechanism at FERC and the new base ROE would be that we would lose, on average, $0.05 to $0.06 a year that would come in ratably throughout the year. We'd be basically be earning less every quarter.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Inc., Research Division:
All right. Does that start? I guess what's the effective date, more or less, of that?
James J. Judge:
The effective date would be the -- when this order that was issued is final, and that's expected to be in the fall.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Inc., Research Division:
This fall?
James J. Judge:
Yes.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
Thanks, Travis. Our next question is from Paul Patterson from Glenrock.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Just to sort of follow up on the Needham [ph] clarification rehearing case. Are you guys implementing rates based on the -- on simply the base ROE? Or are you also taking into account what the upper end of the range would cut off the incremental ROE, if you follow me?
James J. Judge:
We -- the reserve that we've established reflects the lower base and it also reflects the upper end of the range as it impacts the incentives that were earned through the 2 complaint periods. So we basically booked it all.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. So -- and just incrementally speaking, if you were to get the rehearing on the incremental part go your way, what might that mean financially?
James J. Judge:
The -- well, $0.05 of the $0.10 writeoff that we just took would be unwound. And I would say of the $0.05 to $0.06 going forward, about 1/3 of it relates to the impaired incentive impacts that we're talking about.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. And then just for the quarter, I'm sorry if I missed this, what was the weather-adjusted sales growth number for the quarter system-wise on electric?
James J. Judge:
Electric, the second quarter sales were down 2.9%. But weather-adjusted, it would have been down 1.7%.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. And then just finally, on the NESCOE stuff, with each -- with the legislation that was in Massachusetts with respect to hydro and stuff, it -- I don't know what happened to it, but it looked like it was running into some difficulty in committee. I think it might have not passed. I'm just wondering, with these opportunities, which I understand the logic and everything for them, and the support that the leadership has, do you think there's any legislation that would have to be implemented at the state level to have either gas or electric projects associated with these infrastructure needs to take place? Or is there anything -- I mean, I guess what I'm just sort of wondering is, I mean, leadership might think something conceptually, but when you actually sort of have to get something done, sometimes it doesn't always work out exactly. I'm just sort of wondering sort of strategically how you look at that and how you've sort of addressed that since you guys would ultimately argue with it.
Leon J. Olivier:
Yes, Paul, this is Lee Olivier. The bill did die yesterday in the Massachusetts legislature. And it's -- and the legislative season is over, so there'll be nothing this year. And that bill was essentially all Orion [ph] giving the state authorization to go out and purchase energy. So they would allow them to go out and purchase large-scale energy from hydro and wind and so forth. The bill is not needed as part of the NESCOE process, so this is a Massachusetts-only initiative. And a big part of that was all around meeting their carbon reduction goals. So they've got a goal of reducing carbon essentially the equivalent of 9 terawatt-hours by 2020. So this would allow them to go out and purchase nonprofitable carbon fuel sources and meet that, meet that goal. So from the standpoint of NESCOE, with -- NESCOE is about -- is building infrastructure. Once the infrastructure is built, whether it's electric transmission or gas and places for sub-transmission, the EDCs, with the approval of the state regulators, will have that opportunity to go out and do purchases of energy over either long term, short term, that would obviously have to go through the Public Utility Commission approval process. But that ability is still there. It would just roll up through the EDC, which would go for approval with the PU. So we don't see any other legislation that is needed for a NESCOE initiative to go forward as is.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
Our next question is from Greg Gordon from ISI.
Greg Gordon - ISI Group Inc., Research Division:
When you look at the earnings growth aspiration, what is the baseline expectation for electricity kilowatt per sales, weather normal? And can you talk about that in terms of, like, customer growth versus sales growth? You talked about how the economy in the region definitely looks like it's taking off. I come to Boston all the time. I see all the new customers you guys are getting. How do you think about customer growth relative to sales growth? And size the expectation for kilowatt-hour sales growth going forward.
James J. Judge:
Well I think the guidance that we've given The Street, the long-term guidance, is 0% to 0.5%. So we're not anticipating modest -- significant rather, sales growth in total. You are right that we're seeing customers get out and there's a lot of construction activity going on. Obviously, what we have in addition to that is we spend about $0.5 billion a year on energy efficiency and it has an impact. So the usage per customer is obviously going down and offsetting the fact that our customer numbers are growing. Now the good news is on the energy efficiency front, we have a pretty compensatory ratemaking mechanism that allows us either a decoupling recovery or lost base revenues recovery and will also provide an incentive if we do a good job in terms of executing the programs, and we get cost recovery currently. So we can have revenue growth in spite of the fact that the kilowatt-hour sales are somewhat flat.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
Thanks, Greg. Next question is from Andrew Weisel from Macquarie.
Andrew M. Weisel - Macquarie Research:
First question. Maybe I misheard here, but the Greater Hartford central project, you upped the CapEx. Did the ISO identify their preferred solutions? Or is this more making progress without a final answer?
Leon J. Olivier:
Yes, Andrew, this is Lee Olivier. No, ISO has identified the preferred solution. So we and ISO agreed on what the preferred solutions are, and we have priced those out. And essentially, it's another $50 million on to the initial estimate of $300 million.
Andrew M. Weisel - Macquarie Research:
Okay. Next, the Connecticut rate case. I believe you said hearings are in August. How soon could a potential settlement be reached? Would it be after the hearings?
James J. Judge:
The -- we're -- I think we have a long history of rate settlements, and we've had rate settlements that went up to the 11th hour right before an order was issued. But hearings have been completed, briefs have been filed. And we've also had instances where settlements were reached before the case was even filed. So it's a pretty broad range. It will depend on the perspective and the willingness on both parties. We're obviously in the due diligence phase right now, answering a lot of data requests that are, I would think, appropriate for the consumer advocates to get comfortable that the numbers are all supportable. So we would hope to reach settlement in this case. But when that happens, it's hard to predict.
Andrew M. Weisel - Macquarie Research:
Would you be willing to give like a 1 to 10 scale probability of a settlement?
James J. Judge:
I can't do that because it takes 2, obviously, to agree. But we do have a pretty good track record, including some settlements in Connecticut over the last couple of years. And some of them have been low profile, but I think the fundamentals of the case, again it's totally driven by the investment that we've made in Connecticut. We've done a great job managing costs. The rate request would have been much higher had we not done that. So -- and I think the basis suggests that we should get a good outcome here. But obviously, in settlement space, the other parties need to agree that. I'm not going to probability-weight it.
Andrew M. Weisel - Macquarie Research:
Okay, fair enough. Then one last one on the NESCOE RFPs. If we take Northern Pass out of the equation because that kind of has its own trajectory, would you be interested in proposing another Northern Pass-like project? I think you mentioned some other opportunities. Roughly speaking, are those very large scale? Or will they be more smaller projects?
Leon J. Olivier:
Yes, Andrew, this is Lee Olivier. We're looking at a number of projects. Some of them are smaller, could be anywhere from several hundred megawatts to 1,000 megawatts. So there's a good number of projects that we have reviewed, and we're in the process of narrowing those down to approximately half a dozen projects that we think could add significant value to the region that we'd connect transmission into where there are renewable resources, whether they're wind or hydro. So when the RFP process comes to fruition, we will be ready with several options beyond Northern Pass in which we can offer into that process.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
Thank you, Andrew. Next question is from Nick Ulas [ph] from Gabelli.
Unknown Analyst:
I guess just on the transmission side, could you talk a little bit more about how the Order 1000 process will work in New England? And then I guess you mentioned some partners. And your thoughts on pursuing transmission projects outside of the region and what types of opportunities you see there?
Leon J. Olivier:
Yes, in terms of the FERC Order 1000. FERC has not actually issued the order and how that will work. And so we don't have an outcome here from ISO New England. So ISO New England and FERC did concur on what those rules will be. We've looked at with -- a potential FERC order as we kind of think what the impacts are on current stream of investments, and we think the effects would be minimal at best. So from that standpoint, we need to wait for FERC to issue the order and for ISO to concur with it and put together the actual policies and procedures to go with it. So I would say that's probably going to be something that's going to happen probably by the end of the year, I guess probably fourth quarter. And so your -- yes. And NESCOE is really not using kind of the Order 1000 process. So it's their own process which they can use in concert with ISO New England filing the FERC tariff. And that's -- the ISO New England rules have always had a provision in there that the region could, for the public good, go out and do separate RFPs. I'm sorry, your last part of your question, Nick, is?
Unknown Analyst:
I guess it's -- you talked about, I mean, some interested partners coming to you on the transmission projects maybe outside of the region, what do you see there.
Leon J. Olivier:
Yes, we've actually had a number of potential partners calling. We've actually looked at a lot of projects, quite frankly, around the country. Some in the West Coast, others nearby. We're in discussions with some folks. It's one of these things that you may look at 20 different projects and there may only be 1 or 2 that you really think fit the profile which you would want to invest in, which is there has to be a clear need for the project, it has to have FERC treatment in terms of being able to ensure that you can fully recover your cost, very similar provisions that we have here in New England. We would love to have a partner that we feel very comfortable with, that is trustworthy. So we've looked at quite a few. Some we have chosen not to pursue, and others we're in the process of looking at now, which is the reason why we hired Dr. Shea to be our VP of Transmission Development. She's got the skill set, the business skill set that we obviously needed for that, along with Jim Muntz who is our President of our transmission business. So as we look at those and we find some that we think are really viable, we will share those with you all.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
Thanks, Nick [ph]. Next question is from Michael Lapides from Goldman.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
Lee, I apologize. I had a hard time hearing you a little bit. Can you summarize on the transmission side? How in total is your CapEx forecast different than what you disclosed in Analyst Day?
Leon J. Olivier:
Okay, so big picture, Michael, it's $150 million higher. So $50 million more for the Greater Hartford Central Connecticut Project in years '15 through '17. And then we have about $100 million of other transmission. And again, that's everything from new the substation we're building in Somerville, Massachusetts; to our Greater Boston project, which is a $550 million project, going up by another $20 million; new physical security requirements that are mandated by NERC for -- so another $15 million; and a whole bunch of other smaller projects that are in the $6 million to $7 million range. So that adds up to be $100 million. So there's $150 million of more transmission that we've -- than we talked to you about in the February timeframe.
James J. Judge:
And just to clarify, Michael, the $50 million in the Greater Hartford project is within the forecast horizon, but the additional $100 million that Lee referenced is in 2018. I think Lee had provided an estimate of what we anticipated out in '18 and right now have identified a $100 million more spend.
Leon J. Olivier:
Right.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
Yes, okay. So a little bit more back-end loaded on that $100 million?
James J. Judge:
Right.
Leon J. Olivier:
Right.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
Okay, fine. Any changes to your Northern Pass capital spend forecast, timeline especially?
Leon J. Olivier:
No, not at this time. We're -- there's no real changes at this time. I mean, most of the investment right now has been the DOE IS [ph] process and supporting that and doing early engineering and other environmental work around the sites. So really no CapEx forecast changes at this time.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
And finally, on Northern Pass, what happens now on the PPA process given the Massachusetts legislation has kind of fallen by the wayside?
Leon J. Olivier:
Yes. So on the PPA, there -- when the project is built, HQ will have the sole rights to the line and anyone can do essentially a bilateral deal that chooses to with HQ. They can negotiate a power purchase agreement with HQ over some duration. So that opportunity is still there, and that, in all likelihood, would run through the EDCs with the -- obviously, with the EDCs approving a PPA, that very well still could be done.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
Thanks, Michael. Next question is from Rajeev Lalwani from Morgan Stanley.
Rajeev Lalwani - Morgan Stanley, Research Division:
Two questions. So first, can you provide us the pluses and minuses from your old and new guidance for 2014? I'm just curious what the offsets are for the transmission. And my apologies if you've provided that earlier. And then the second question is around reformation and I guess particularly on the telecom side. Any updated thinking there as far as interest in pursuing that?
James J. Judge:
Sure. On the pluses and minuses, fundamentally we're absorbing a $0.10 hit that we got in the second quarter here on the FERC order. And in spite of that, the guidance has remained fairly robust. The previous guidance was $2.60 to $2.75. The new guidance is $2.60 to $2.70. So, obviously, it reflects what we've achieved year-to-date in the first 2 quarters, but, more importantly, what our expectations are as we update what we think the potential is for the last 2 quarters. On the REIT side, I know there's a lot of financial reengineering activity in the industry, whether it's MLPs or YieldCos or REITs. Some have tax advantages. Others don't. It's not clear to us. Given the nature of our business, we're a pure regulated transmission and distribution business, I think it's difficult to imagine how we could carve out our assets for such a structure and that the regulators would be willing to accommodate that. Nevertheless, we are following the activities we're interested in and understanding the opportunities that could be there in the future for future projects, and we'll continue to monitor that.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
All right. Thanks, Rajeev. That's the last question, so we want to thank you all for joining us today and have a great weekend. And call John or me if you have any more questions today. Take care.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Jeffrey R. Kotkin – Vice President of Investor Relations James J. Judge – Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Leon J. Olivier – Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer James A. Muntz – President of Transmission Business Philip J. Lembo – Treasurer and Vice President Jay S. Buth – Chief Accounting officer, Vice President and Controller John Moreira – Director of Corporate Financial Forecasting and Investor Relations
Analysts:
Dan L. Eggers – Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC Travis Miller – Morningstar Research Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS Michael J. Lapides – Goldman Sachs & Co. Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC Rajeev Lalwani – Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Kit Konolige – BGC Partners LP
Operator:
Welcome to the Northeast Utilities Earnings Call. My name is Christine and I will be the operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Jeff Kotkin. You may begin.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
Thank you, Christine. Good morning and thank you for joining us today. I'm Jeff Kotkin, NU's Vice President for Investor Relations. Speaking today will be Jim Judge, NU Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Lee Olivier, our Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer. Also joining us today are Jim Muntz, President of our Transmission business; Phil Lembo, our Treasurer; Jay Buth, our Controller and John Moreira, our Director of Corporate Financial Forecasting and Investor Relations. Before I turn over the call to Jim, I would like to remind you that some of the statements made during this investor call may be forward-looking as defined within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risk and uncertainty, which may cause the actual results to differ materially from forecasts and projections. Some of these factors are set forth in the news release we issued yesterday. If you have not yet seen that news release, it is posted on our website at www.nu.com and has been filed as an exhibit to our Form 8-K. Additional information about the various factors that may cause actual results to differ can be found in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2013. Additionally, our explanation of how and why we use certain non-GAAP measures is contained within our news release and in our most recent 10-K. Now, I will turn over the call over to Jim.
James J. Judge:
Thank you, Jeff and thank you, everyone, for joining us this morning. We appreciate that you are spending some time with us today. In my remarks today, I will cover our solid first quarter earnings results, some recent financing activity and highlights of economic conditions in our region. And I conclude with an update on various regulatory proceedings and legislative activity impacting our companies. You probably saw our first quarter earnings release that was issued by yesterday. We earned $241.8 million or $0.76 per share on a recurring basis this quarter, compared $229.9 million or $0.73 per share last year. These results exclude integration costs of $5.8 million in 2014 and $1.8 million in 2013. So we’re off to a good start for the year and feel comfortable with the full year earnings per share guidance of $2.60 and $2.75 and our longer term EPS growth rate of 6% to 8% through 2017 that we provided you at our analyst day in February. Our 6% to 8% sustained EPS and dividend growth and very strong credit ratings really differentiate Northeast Utilities from other investment opportunities in our sector. As you might have expected a major factor in the quarter performance was cold weather with temperatures well below last year and well below normal. Heating degree days on average within our three state service territory were up about 15% this year compared to 2013. As a result we experienced a 4% increase in electric sales for the quarter compared to last year and 15.5% increase in natural gas sales. These higher electric and gas sales added $0.07 to earnings per share for the quarter compared to last year. I should note that if you were to weather normalize our sales variance. Electric sales were up 1.3% and gas sales increased 3.6%. So we saw some growth in sales beyond the favorable weather benefit this growth is evidence a recent favorable economic data in our region, which I will discuss later. Another positive driver was decrease in operations and maintenance costs that had an earnings impact during the first quarter of this year which improved earnings per share $0.02 for the quarter. The two biggest drivers there, while lower pension benefit costs, which we discussed during on Analyst Day as being a significant driver of lower O&M for the next two years. And our reduction in storm cost. You may recall that last year we incur significant storm cost is result of wintry weather. All most of these cots were deferred some or not. So storm costs that effected first earnings were lower as compared to 2013 first quarter levels. While storm costs can vary with weather by quarter other O&M reductions are more permanent. One small example of this is our initiative on targeted customer outreach in 2013 to enroll customers in our e-bill program. Since the merger close two years ago, we have doubled the number customers who receive electronic bills, achieving top quartile performance for each operating company and saving more than a million dollars annually on postage expenses. A small success story that we’re quite proud of an example of our focus on adopting best practices post merger. Let me remind you that our guidance calls for decline in O&M of about 4% for the full-year 2014. So, we expect to see continued savings in this area as the year progresses. Our transmission segment earned $74.9 million in the first quarter of 2014, compared with $79.9 million in the first quarter of 2013, a decline of $5 million or $0.02 per share. Essentially that entire decline was due to a higher effective tax rate. You may recall that last year’s transmission results included the favorable impact from the resolution of state tax audits. That item boosted 2013s first quarter earnings by $13.6 million, or $0.04 per share on a consolidated basis. About half of that $13.6 million benefit was in transmission and the other half was in NU parent and other. As a result in higher effective tax rate NU parent and other company earnings declined $2.6 million in the first quarter of 2014 from $7.2 million in the same quarter of 2013. Moving on an increasing depreciation in property taxes reduce the quarter’s results by $0.02 compared to last year. And it’s reflection of the continued investments in our system infrastructure. While interest expense was not a major positive driver in our earnings performance for the quarter, we continued to take steps to walk in low interest costs to some recent successful financing activity. In January Yankee Gas issued a $100 million of third year first mortgage bonds with a rate of 4.82% mostly to repay a $75 million debt issue that was also paying about 4.8% that matured the first of the year. In March, NSTAR electric issued $300 million of 30-year debentures at a rate of 4.4% to repay a like amount of 10-year, 4 and 7, 8s debentures that matured in April. More recently CL&P sold $250 million of 30-year 4.3% first mortgage bonds to pay off $150 million of 4.8% bonds that mature later this year. So we continue to take advantage of the current favorable interest rate environment by locking in some long-term financings that will benefit customers over the long run. We expect that our ability to continue to obtain favorable interest rates will continue as last Friday, Standard & Poor’s raised is outlook on NU in our major operating subsidiaries so positive from stable. Now let me comment on economic conditions in our region. As I said in the past, I would characterize our local economy as generally better than the U.S., and I'm encouraged by various signs of improvement particularly in the labor market when compared to U.S. Since December, Connecticut its unemployment rate has decreased to 7% from 7.4% Massachusetts unemployment has dropped to 6.3% from 7.1% at year end. And New Hampshire's rate moved to 4.5% from the December’s 5.2% well below the current national rate of 6.7%. These are the lowest unemployment rates we have seen in our region since 2009 for Connecticut and 2008 for New Hampshire and Massachusetts. Also, construction employment remains very strong throughout our region, particularly in Connecticut which has experienced in growth rate that is more than double the U.S. average. Now I would like to provide you with a brief update on some current regulatory and legislative items. First on the regulatory front we received the final decision from the Connecticut public utility regulatory authority on March 12 regarding the approval for recovery of $365 million of storm costs over six years. Recovery of these costs, together with the full cost of capital recurring charge will begin on December 1st. We will continue to earn no return on that deferred storm balance until December. In a separate proceeding, we expect to notify PURA next week intent to file new distribution rates for CL&P next month. It's actually requirement of our Connecticut merger settlement agreement that requires us to file for new rates effective December 1, 2014. We will ask for an increase that is essentially fully driven by our continued investment in CL&P's distribution system. We’ve done a great job on merger savings as O&M Connecticut Light and Power is actually lower than it was a few years ago. So the rate increase is not driven by O&M, but rather, capital payments being made which contributor to our outstanding reliability results in 2013. 2013 was CL&P’s best year since the year 2000. Turning now to New Hampshire, on April 1, the New Hampshire PUC staff forwarded a report to New Hampshire's legislative oversight committee on electric utility restructuring containing an estimated valuation of PSNH's generating assets. That estimated fair market valuation was $225 million versus a book value of about $660 million. As next steps, the report recommends three items. First that the commission completes the scrubber review before conducting any proceeding involving divestiture. Second the legislature makes the necessary statutory changes that would allow the commission to conduct a full review of our generating assets and to proceed with divestiture if it finds it is in the economic interest CL&P's customers. And third the commission requests ISO New England to conduct a study of the potential reliability and economic effects of the closure or retirement of our fossil generating plants. We will work closely with the legislature and the commission, and we remain confident that our generation investment will be recovered in full, whether the assets are retained or divested. In Massachusetts, there is a bill under consideration that would impact NSTAR Gas. Legislators are considering a bill that we expect would spur oil to gas conversions in the state. House and Senate versions of the bill were passed with minor differences that need to be reconciled in a joint conference. The bill includes provisions that would reduce the timeframe from when a distribution company replaces infrastructure to when the cost of infrastructure is reflected in customer rates, thus providing the financial support for a sustained infrastructure replacement program. It also includes a provision addressing gas expansion, allowing local distribution companies like NSTAR Gas to design and offer programs to customers, like areas zone charges which increase the availability, affordability and feasibility of natural gas service to new customers. We are hopeful this new legislation will pass later this year. Also in Massachusetts, a new legislative proposal filed in February would require Massachusetts electric distribution companies like and NSTAR Electric and Western Mass Electric Company to seek long-term contracts for clean energy resources such as solar, wind and hydropower. The proposal would require electric distribution companies to solicit proposals from developers for at least 18.9 million megawatt hours of electricity annually from clean energy generation sources including Canadian Hydro and allow companies to enter into 20 year to 25 year contracts. This bill is in its early stages of development, so it would be premature to predict its ultimate impact at this time. But it has a direct correlation to the regional energy market issue that I will discuss in a moment. I should note, however, that we began contracting for renewable energy resources in conjunction with the Massachusetts screen communities act several years ago, and we continue to make progress on this effort. In fact, the DPU approved in late February contracts that we have executed for wind power projects in New Hampshire and Maine as we continue to make progress toward the state's renewable portfolio targets. At the federal level, there's nothing new to report on the complaint against the 11.14% base ROE that New England's transmission owners earned. This is unclear when FERC will issue its decision. We believe that the 100 basis point increased in the 10-year treasury rates over the past year have significantly mitigated our exposure in this docket. We currently have about $2.3 billion of equity invested in our transmission system, so a 10 basis point movement would equate to about two-thirds of $0.001 per share. One more item I would like to discuss relates to the current energy market in New England of the regions energy infrastructure. Most of you know all too well the problem in our region – the problems that our region faces with electricity generation capacity constraints in New England and our concerns about reliability and price. Northeast Utilities is actively engaged in the New England governor's coordinated effort to invest in new gas pipeline and electric transmission infrastructure to meet the region's energy needs. The regional infrastructure investment process is being driven by the governors and the state energy offices and supported by NESCO, which stands for New England State's Committee on Electricity, and also ISO New England. More than 4,000 megawatts of capacity is expected to retire over next five years, and in 2013, rising natural prices due to pipeline constraints pushed wholesale electricity prices up significantly. With winter reliability and price volatility still fresh in our minds, and the retirement of the region's aging fleet in the foreground, our policy makers recognize that now is the time to invest in reliable, diverse, cleaner, and more affordable energy resources. Through NESCO, the states have called for 1,200 to 3,600 megawatts of new electric transmission and clean energy imports in the form of hydropower and/or wind. The states recognize the opportunity that large-scale hydropower offers the region in stabilizing prices and helping advance the greenhouse gas reduction goals. While NESCO is preparing for regional RFP process to expedite bringing these resources to market, state like Massachusetts are preparing for contracts by proposing legislation to allow participation in the regional procurement process and/or authorizing utilities to enter long-term contracts for hydro and wind to ensure that these clean energy resources actually come to market. In April, the Massachusetts legislature held a hearing on the Patrick administration's proposed legislation that we continue to work with the legislature, the administration and other clean energy stakeholders to get an effective bill passed in 2014. On the gas capacity for electric generation issue, we continue to have discussions with NESCO, our state leaders and other key stakeholders through the peephole process and how to bring additional natural gas pipeline capacity into the region to address our winter electric reliability and price volatility issues. Through NESCO, the states have called from an additional 1 BCF of pipeline capacity in New England which includes between 300 million and 400 million cubic feet from the AIM project to meet our electric generation needs. ISO New England and others have estimated a need in the range of 1 BCF to 3 BCF. In addition to the current AIM project. The NESCO proposal would seek a new tariff to allow ISO New England to collect pipeline costs from electric market participants since the natural gas is needed to keep the lights on. The states have indicated a need to move quickly, and we anticipate that both infrastructure RFPs could be issued in the coming months. Just last week, together with National Grid and United Illuminating, we provided NESCO with a proposed approach that would facilitate expansion of natural gas infrastructure into New England for generation use. Obviously, this regional infrastructure initiative is ambitious and complex, but it is critically needed to address our customer's needs for reliable and affordable energy first and foremost. These initiatives also provide opportunities for Northeast Utilities as a Company given our experience in transmission, our relationship with Canadian Hydro generators, as well as our gas infrastructure assets and our work on gas expansion in Connecticut. So, the industry is at a significant crossroad, and there is much more to come on these important developments. That concludes my formal remarks, so I'll now turn the call over to Lee.
Leon J. Olivier:
Thank you, Jim. I will provide you with an update on our major capital projects and our natural gas expansion initiatives and then turn the call back to Jeff for Q&A’s. I will begin with transmission and our newest family of projects. You will recall that we finished the Greater Springfield Reliability Project last fall on schedule and about 6% under budget. We commenced construction of our interstate reliability project in March after receiving all required permits. We will build the approximately 40 mile Connecticut section of the project and National Grid will build the Rhode Island and Massachusetts sections. Our section is estimated to cost about $280 million and should be completed in the fall of 2013. The only outstanding permit remaining on the National Grid section is from the Massachusetts Energy Facility Siting Board, or EFSP. And earlier this year EFSP board members unanimously directed staff to prepare in order improvement projects. We expect the FSP approval to be finalized soon after that and all sections of the project will be completed by the end of 2013. Turning now to the Greater Hartford Central Connecticut Liability Project, we expect that ISO New England will identify a series of solutions this summer to remedy current and future overload and local conditions that exist today or will emerge in the near future across Central and Western Connecticut. We expect to invest about $300 million in those solutions, and we will be able to provide you with a more definitive figure once ISO New England identifies the necessary grid enhancements. Turning to Northern Pass, U.S. Department of Energy continues to work on its draft environmental impact statement. Earlier this year, DOE indicated that its draft EIS will cover not only our recommendations of the route, but various potential alternative sections. In DOE recently released a summary of the comments it has received on the project and has released its list of alternative routes it has identified for analysis in the draft. We support looking at alternative sections of the route and are pleased DOE is looking at these alternatives at this time. DOE has posted a target date of December 2014 on its website to issue its draft EIS. Once of it’s issued, DOE will accept public comments before issuing a final EIS. Once we receive the draft EIS, we will be in a position to file our application with the New Hampshire Site Evaluation Committee. We continue to expect final approval of the project in 2015 and completion in the second half of 2017. Earlier, Jim discussed the NESCO process; I will add some color around it. New England has become increasingly dependent on natural gas generation which now accounts for just over half of all electricity consumed in the region that is likely to increase after the retirements of Vermont Yankee nuclear plant and the Salem Harbor coal units later this year. But when temperatures plunge as we saw this winter, more natural gas is consumed to keep the region's homes and businesses and [indiscernible] available around the region's generator. As a result, we operated units that are older and less efficient, which also burn more costly oil and imported L&G to keep New England’s lights on. That drives up prices. The average spot market wholesale price at the New England hub was nearly $0.17 a kilowatt hour in January of 2014 and nearly $0.15 a kilowatt hour in February. Average February wholesale prices were up 41% from February 2013. Even in March, normally more of shoulder month, wholesale prices were just over $0.11 a kilowatt hour compared with $5.03 in March of 2013 and $2.06 in the very mild March 2012. additionally, there were times this winter when ISO was concerned that they would be unable to supply enough power to meet the region's needs and would be forced to shut off load. To put this in context, the wholesale electricity market in New England from December through March this past winter was $6.8 billion. During the same four months of the winter 2012 to 2013 it was $3.6 billion; during the same four months of 2011 to 2012 it was $1.6 billion market. Clearly, we are entering new territory in terms cost to New England electric customers which will need – which customers will need to bear in future winters. There is no question that the region needs significant new supplies to help tame the explosive growth in winter energy costs, and there is also no question that Northern Pass is a crucial component in meeting our energy challenges later this decade. Hydro Quebec was a key supplier of electric power to New England this winter and can further expand exports if it has additional transmission access into the region. Our Northern Pass team in New Hampshire continues its outreach to communities, including residents living along the proposed route. We are working with business leaders and other stakeholders to further explain the facts surrounding the project and the significant benefits it will provide to New Hampshire and the region. We believe that Northern Pass is the single best positioned electric transmission project to address New England’s energy challenges. First, it is at least three years ahead of any of the project that could add meaningful electric transmission and generation capacity to New England. Next, it can be located on a route that requires no additional property acquisition. It has FERC approval and has already passed the ISO New England test for safe and reliable interconnection to the grid. That ISO sign off was the combination of the more three year review process. And perhaps most importantly, we have the supplier on the other end of the line in the form of Hydro Quebec that is willing to construct new transmission, excuse me in Canada and to connect our line and has adequate generated capacity to fill the line with power for New England throughout the year. We believe this past winter's appearance has increased support for Northern Pass significantly. Of course our transmission development programs involve much more than the news in Northern Pass. As I mentioned during the analyst day, we have many smaller reliability transmission projects we continue to execute in all three states. In the first quarter 2014 our transmission capital expenditures total approximately $90 million and we continue to project approximately $660 million of transmission CapEx in 2014. Moving onto generation PSNH unit performed strong extremely well in the first quarter and provided a critical stores of non-natural gas fired generation for New Hampshire. Our generation fleet 10% more power that it did in the first quarter of 2013 and 63% more than it did in the mild first quarter of 2012. In Massachusetts over the past week our third and largest solar site at Western Mass Electric commenced commercial operation. We now have 8 megawatts of solar at WMECO producing more energy then we had initially projected and at a much lower cost in our initial estimates. Our solar development program is also current two brownfield sites and one landfill site into important assets for Springfield and Pittsfield Massachusetts. We continue to earn a fully tracked return in our approximately $35 million investment in those facilities. Moving onto natural gas, as Jim noted our very strong sales this past winter. In fact the first quarter of 2014 Yankee Gas recorded 7 of its top 10 highest send out days ever and NSTAR Gas experienced 2 of its top 10 sent out days ever. All of the Yankee gas is top 5 send out days as well as NSTAR gas is top send out day correct this year. This occurred not only due to clod weather, but also due to each company increased customer count. In the first quarter, we added nearly 2,200 new space heating customers and continue to expect to add about 10,000 new customers this year. Finally, I should note that despite the cold and snowy winter our electric service reliability was very good in the first quarter. This continued and strong performance we had in 2013, which was NU's best ever from a reliability standpoint. Now, I would like to turn the call back over to Jeff.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
And I'm going to turn the call over to Christine to remind you how to enter questions. Christine.
Christine:
Yes, thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions).
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
Thank you, Christine. Our first questioner today is Dan Eggers from Credit Suisse. Good morning, Dan.
Dan L. Eggers – Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Hey, good morning, guys. Could you maybe put a little more context, obviously with the volatility of this quarter there is a big draw on the system. What affect did that have in the conversations with some of your constituents on Northern Pass? And did that change the tone with the people who have been maybe more difficult in the process so far?
Leon J. Olivier:
Hi, Dan. This is Lee Olivier. I think this past winter has changed people's attitudes around the project and New Hampshire significantly. I think there is a real view that the project is needed. I think even many of the opponents would agree that the project is needed. So the real question is what further do we need to do around mitigation to ensure that we build as broader consensus as we can around the project as we go into deciding process in New Hampshire. So we look at the project it is very, very strong support from labor and strong support from business, growing support from key legislators in New Hampshire and also people from the northern part of New Hampshire where the project has been most controversial. So as I have said in my remarks, our teams continued to work with all of those constituencies to build this broad coalition and that should come together later this year. In a way that is more obvious and more appropriate.
Dan L. Eggers – Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Okay. Then one of the growth opportunities has been or targeted to be conversion of the heating use customers to natural gas. Was there any conversation given some of the deliverability issues this winter, either A, should we change trajectory of moving to gas until we make sure we have supply? Or B, is there a greater push to figure out other infrastructure needs to make sure utilities have more gas available, even for extreme periods like this winter?
Leon J. Olivier:
Yes, I think Jim commented on the series of gas pipelines that have essentially been approved the aim project and then there is a smaller Tennessee gas pipeline project. But these projects will come into service around the November of 2016, so there is ample supply in the pipelines to support our conversion estimates as we go forward through that period of time and of course once those upgrades to the existing pipelines are complete, that will provide a little extra margin for generators. But to the point that NESCO was making, there will need to be a larger gas pipeline spread into region, the region probably needs another 1.5 BCF to 2 BCF of gas either in LNG storage or pipelines.
Dan L. Eggers – Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Okay, so anything about that being in November of 2016, what strategies are you guys going to deploy for this next winter before the infrastructure gets put in place?
Leon J. Olivier:
Well. Are you talking about strategies for our EDC – our LDC?
Dan L. Eggers – Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
I guess probably from a gas supply perspective or from a regional perspective, both for gas and electric. Are there things that you guys can adjust for the 2014, 2015 winter having seen what happened in 2013, 2014, both operationally or investment-wise to make some fixes?
Leon J. Olivier:
Yes. I think from the LDC standpoint we've got the gas that we need, that’s not going to be an issue, we can meet our expansion plan. The real question is what does the region do around ensuring that it has sufficient electrical capacity and as you know last year ISO New England put in place over $3 million barrel of oil program of that was directly subsidized. They are currently looking at what would be another program that would provide similar benefits in terms of the reliability and sufficient capacity, and course the dilemma as I have said before, is that we have the Vermont Yankee you plan and also the Salem Harbor plant which will not be service, they operate it well, they can provide about 2.5 million megawatt hours through the winter period. So what that tees up is a somewhat precarious position this coming winter. Not around getting gas to our of LDC customers, but ensuring the reliability on our grid and that’s something that we in NU are working very closely with ISO New England and along with the other major utilities in the region.
James J. Judge:
This is Jim. I would only add other thing that Northeast Utilities specifically can do is to make sure that are generating fleet in New Hampshire is available and ready to be dispatched if the ISO need to during the winter next year.
Dan L. Eggers – Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Okay. Thank you, guys.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
All right. Thanks, Dan. Next question is from Travis Miller from MorningStar. Good morning Travis.
Travis Miller :
Hi good morning thanks. I’m wondering back on this will gas pipeline, would you guys be interested in taking stakes and helping construct interstate pipelines?
Morningstar Research:
Hi good morning thanks. I’m wondering back on this will gas pipeline, would you guys be interested in taking stakes and helping construct interstate pipelines?
Leon J. Olivier:
National grid Northeast Utilities and UIL have submitted suggestions in terms of the solution here. That solution would have the other two distribution companies recover a FERC approved tariff from electric retail customers in New England. In order to do that the EDC's would need to be appropriately compensated for entering into these long-term contract commitments and for lending financial stability in the form of balance sheets and credit ratings. So this compensation could be in the form of equity participation in the project and or other compensation for lending credit quality.
Travis Miller :
And that would be a rate based type of compensation, is that how that economics would work?
Morningstar Research:
And that would be a rate based type of compensation, is that how that economics would work?
Leon J. Olivier:
It’s still to be defined in terms of the structure but I think we recognize that if we are going to use our balance sheet and credit rating qualifications, adding these contracts puts pressure on the company's certainly, credit rating perspective and some remuneration would be positive. So that would be appropriate. So it still to be defined Travis but that's the position of the utilities.
Travis Miller :
Okay and then real quick on the transmission business, what would have been the core impact if you have backed out that tax impact?
Morningstar Research:
Okay and then real quick on the transmission business, what would have been the core impact if you have backed out that tax impact?
Leon J. Olivier:
Approximately $0.02.
Travis Miller :
Throughout. Okay. Okay thank you.
Morningstar Research:
Throughout. Okay. Okay thank you.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
All right. Thank you Travis. Next question is from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from UBS. Good morning Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS:
His good morning. So perhaps again not to beat a dead horse but this is a pretty complex subject. Going back first on the gas infrastructure side, what is the opportunity if you can kind of bucket it out intraregional and then from a interregional perspective, I suppose there is a discussion amongst folks to have a tariff that would be a backstop on electric side of the bill. Is that something that’s palatable to are ultimately do think that this is going to end up going back and being something that gets billed directly to you and you end up being the back stop for contracts? So it’s a little bit – two part question there.
Leon J. Olivier:
I’ll just answer the first part in terms of the infrastructure, there is about four pipelines that run into New England, the most valuable pipeline is obviously the Algonquin pipeline, Spectra and Tennessee pipelines, Kinder Morgan and they come in from the west. Again, so they interconnect through the article or into Marcellus. So ideally which we would want to have is upgrades in one or both of those pipelines and/or some additional LNG facilities. If you look of the future you have about 52% of the energy New England right now that’s coming of natural gas and if you factor in approximately 8,000 to 9,000 megawatts of retirements and you look at out what’s going to recover that most of that almost power than the gas. So in the future you are looking on probably 80% of the energy in the region during the periods coming from natural gas. So that’s so that you need fairly robust of inter region series of upgrades. With that I will let you may pick up the tariff issues and how contracts of administered.
James J. Judge:
Sure and fundamentally Julie as you know that the LDCs have contracted for supply – adequate supply to meet their, home heating customers load. The issue here is that the gas generators have not sort of subscribe to long term capacity need. So the fact that they are not aid but not willing to step up to some of contract for it. The utilities are natural solution because at the end of the day it’s the utility customers that are bearing the brunt of this volatile gas market in the winter. So I think it make sense for utilities to collectively support contract have equity positions in a new supply into the region to basically dampen that volatility to generate is experience and those costs can be spread around to electric customers throughout the region all of whom benefit directly from that investor.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS:
Great and then moving over to the transmission side of the equation here, as far as solution. For MTU just talked about alternative route, what is that mean from a cost and from that time line perspective for the project just that mean you still expect to move forward with the draft DIS at the same kind of time line we talked about before.
Leon J. Olivier:
There is a number of options there some of them with consider you know rearranging right away some them would consider doing under grounding and various environmentally since it is various. However none of the options is currently laid out with impact our schedule so the impact schedule is fine to the point of cost obviously if you do under grounding more under grounding right now we doing eight miles of under grounding to the extent that should be more the project would hear about those updates if you will? When the BOE need to make a decision on putting forth a best alternative route to what have you?
James J. Judge:
That will be when they issued the draft EIS in December of this year.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS:
And with that presumably will get something for better estimate of what the new cost might be?
James J. Judge:
We will be preparing along with that we will be appearing cost estimate when we filed with the SEC in early next year.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS:
Great. Thank you very much.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
Thanks, Julien. Our next question is from Michael Lapides from Goldman. Good morning, Michael.
Michael J. Lapides – Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Hey, good morning, guys. Congrats on a good quarter. Couple of things and Jim I apologize because in your prepared remarks on some of the legislative staff, a mature fully caught all that. Can you give us some update on the Massachusetts legislation both pieces. So, the gas related one and when you talk about that one, can you talk about what it means for either rate based or the potential change in natural gas LBC demand in Massachusetts? And can you also talk about the renewable one. Is there any impact on any besides what I could in for contracting Northern Pass?
James J. Judge:
Sure, on the gas side, the pieces of legislation that are in conference address infrastructure investments. So, basically reduce gas leakage to upgrade the system overall, but is likely to involve some sort of, timely costs recovery in any can think of tracker. And the other part of the legislation is intended to encourage and enable more conversions from home heating oil to gas. So the house and Senate versions are in conference and being reconciled currently. The other piece of legislation, which is relative to clean energy is recognition that in order to commit to this NESCO process or even outside of the NESCO process, there needs to be enabling legislation that would allow utilities to contract for a number that is in excess of 18 kilowatt hours of renewable supply basically to the North wind and hydro. So, two pieces of legislation that we are watching closely than I think both of which have positive impacts on the company’s prospects.
Michael J. Lapides – Goldman Sachs & Co.:
In the gas one other to natural gas related ones I understand the different pieces in Massachusetts, kind of when they come together conference it's conceivable that the ends product, and impact for your company will look something little bit similar to what happened in Connecticut last year?
James J. Judge:
In May, although I would say Michael that the prospects I think are less. I mean in Connecticut we had an extremely low gas penetration rate 32% whereas the Massachusetts penetrations rates closer to 50%. So I would say that the opportunity of the prospects for new customer conversions probably would not be as aggressive as we saw in Connecticut.
Michael J. Lapides – Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. Okay. You talked a little bit about O&M on the quarter can you walk us through components when you speak about the year-over-year changes in O&M that are embedded in guidance? What’s pension related? What’s kind of removal of non recurring items storms or other that happened in 2013? And what’s really tied to kind of savings you are driving from kind of merger synergy savings?
James J. Judge:
Sure. The guidance that we have given to street for this year is a 4% reduction in O&M and 3% to 4% reduction long-term for 2017. So what we experienced this year we do a comparison with the first quarter of 2013 the major drivers were pension expense is lower and our storm costs per lower. We had a pretty good quarter in terms of very little storm expenses where as year ago there were its wintry winter basically. So those are the two major drivers. What I will tell you that what was experienced for O&M to date is very much inline with our internal budget. So the first quarter results from O&M perspective pretty much spot on. Obviously we’re positively surprised by the top line growth, the sales growth that we did experience.
Michael J. Lapides – Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it okay Jim. Thank you very much. Much appreciated.
James J. Judge:
Thank you.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
Thanks Michael. Next question is from Paul Patterson from Glenrock.
Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC:
Good morning.
James J. Judge:
Hi, Paul.
Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC:
Hey. Just back on the gas infrastructure situation. How do we think about this, the competing issues of having the utility enter into obligations for gas, for electric power versus these other sort of discussions about it happen before capacity options that have more commitment required for capacity providers instead of having the wholesale market sort of drive the need for new gas pipelines? How should we think about this is an?
James J. Judge:
I think there is recognition that the market seems to be generating the investment that is needed and the customer’s best interest. And have been instances in the past as you know Paul with as to be intervention in the markets where we have set of significant irregularities, must run contracts is probably the most classic example. So here I think without some sort of intervention we don’t anticipate that these pipelines will be built on spec, we don’t see the generators stepping up to make the long-term commitment. So to the extent that we have the liability concerns, that we have economic concerns it’s in the interest of our consumers for somebody else to intervene to deal with the irregularities in the market today.
Leon J. Olivier:
Yes, and I would just add into that the generators, if you look at the generators, they are all that different economic interest, obviously if you are a nuclear generator, you don’t particularly care where the gas supply is, because the less gas the higher the price is on imported LNG in your margins growth pretty dramatically. And there are other generators that have storage hydro and so forth all of those kinds of assets are optimized when gas prices are very, very high. So it's unlikely that the market will solve this and if the ISO rules that they proposed go through that would be in the 2018, 2019 timeframe and there are significant penalties around generators that don’t show up on a shortfall day then that could cause a fair number of those that exit the market as we would expect it to do and that means it would be a fairly significant impact on the capacity market in terms of the new supply and demand curve that ISO has also filed for. So there will be a shake out there with the non-nuclear generation capacity over the course of the next seven or eight years.
Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay.
James J. Judge:
The only thing I would add as well as the sense of urgency is very real, I think and palpable the energy secretary Moniz was here last week and held a conference where this issue or this concern was front and center. In fact [indiscernible] CEO was on one of the panels that were on the agenda that day. So the concern is there and I think we need a timely solution to resolve the problem as quickly as we can.
Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay, so when do we see a more formulated, because as you know there are these arguments and stuff that are being raised. When do we see because what is the time line we should be looking for in terms of the NESCO proposal other proposals being – going through the regulatory process – going through the process by which we see the actual policy kind of cautified if you know what I’m saying?
James J. Judge:
We think that the sooner the better, we think a time line that would involve an RFP process this summer into this fall in decisions being made, because when you back off or when you take a look at what the saving requirements are, you go through process you select the project, the project is to be decided several regulatory approvals involve there then you beginning construction, I think if you begin the progress now you are still looking for solutions that’s held in the winter of 2017, 2018. So I think we would hope for fast track approach to this effort.
Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay and then just finally circling back to in your answer and you guys did mentioned you know obviously this would bode well for your arguments for more than past and I would assume for the coal plate there is well. Is that actually what’s happening on the ground I mean did our people actually seeing this polar vortex stuff, is that changed from people minds or just you guys on the ground what’s your experience in terms of how people actually, we are in the decision making process seeing these projects or seeing these assets or potentially assets versus the – did a change critically on the ground is result of this or…
Leon J. Olivier:
Yes, I can this significant change, in the answer is still has some level pulp and paper process knows during the winter time and many of those were shut down because they run off gas for the process because there was no gas, so we consider amount of lay offs during that period. I think you know even the folks that look at the PSNH assets that we currently owned which perform extremely well they understand rolled assets and not going to be around after ever and we need replacement power that is firm, that is clean, that is one lay and that is not subject to lot of the technological issues that other progress versus half. So there is since that need to have that for the security of the state for the economic development at the stage, Jim mentioned the unemployment rate is very low there is some other major manufactures that would like to move in to – but they have a concern around the availability of energy and the price of energy and so I think with this is done is galvanized the business community elected leaders we have always had labor there, but it is also getting reappoints to rethink there position. So their position in many cases well as no longer, we are not going to support MPT other its what’s the best way to get the project build with the leased in that on the answers. So that’s kind of the dialogue that is taken place throughout much of the answer and with key stakeholders in the answer.
James J. Judge:
Great thanks for the color.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
Thank you, Paul. Next question is from Rajeev Lalwani from Morgan Stanley. Good morning Rajeev.
Rajeev Lalwani – Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Good morning, gentlemen. Two quick questions. One on the NESCO process, if the states are choosing between the two alternative. One being more pipeline capacity and the other being RFPs for generation and transmission? And then the second question, I don’t think you touched on this in your prepared remarks and if you did, I apologize, but then the New Hampshire legislation around undergrounding. Some color there would be great as well.
James J. Judge:
Sure. On the first question, both our transmission and energy RFP and a gas pipeline RFP are being considered, basically in the same conversations even though this all different solutions and different problems rather. And in New Hampshire, there is sort of periodic legislation. Some of the being considered that would rely – would require more undergrounding and some legislation looking for stricter sighting requirements. Mandatory use of stay transmission power it is so there have been various pieces of legislation, none of which have been enacted to-date.
Rajeev Lalwani – Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Great. Thank you.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
Thanks. Rajeev. And, next question is from Kit Konolige with BCG. Good morning, Kit.
Kit Konolige –:
Hi, good morning, guys. Two follow-up questions. I may have missed this, but did you talk about are you see that on a weather adjusted basis, gas sales were quite strong in the first quarter. Can you just give us a little insight into that?
BGC Partners LP:
Hi, good morning, guys. Two follow-up questions. I may have missed this, but did you talk about are you see that on a weather adjusted basis, gas sales were quite strong in the first quarter. Can you just give us a little insight into that?
James J. Judge:
Sure, Kit. We were weather adjusted, our gas sales were up 3.6%, which is very much in line with the guidance that we have given. We think that our gas sales will be 3% to 4% going forward and we continue to be on track in terms of the gas conversion targets that we’ve established. So we have increased customer count I think we added that 2,200 customers here in the first quarter. So, the 3.6% weather adjusted is spot on with where we expected today.
Kit Konolige – BGC Partners LP:
Very good. And to follow on Northern Pass one more time, in your prior discussion of if I can call it the possibility of some further adjustments, such as undergrounding and so on, if in going back and forth with all of the other parties that are interested here, previously you just submitted a new plan with new adjustments. Should we be looking for any kind of settlement with other parties signing on to something you filed the next time? Or will this just be an iterative process where you might taken comments and adjust your plans and draw new blueprints and go from there? Are there any landmarks or any meetings or any timelines that we can for a different kind of Northern Pass eventually?
Leon J. Olivier:
Yes, Kit. This is Lee Olivier. I think I would just summarize it as we are in conversations with many if not all of the folks that you mentioned kind of a coalition that you would need to get a consensus. I think it's too early to say right now, that we are going to have a big news conference here or whatever in June or July answer that we have a coalition in the coalition supports the project quick we know we have the makeup of the coalition as discussed. Labor we expect to see major labor support, business support and electric leader support and environmental folks of the folks that we're having considerable dialogue with. So will you ever be able to get all of environmental groups? No, but we hope to get sufficient support around mitigation that we would propose later in the year. So, I think that because of what has happened in the winter, there's a growing consensus that we need to pull together as a state, and there’s a region around a solution for the project and so later this year we will be able to provide you with better insight and where we are on that work.
Kit Konolige – BGC Partners LP:
Great, very helpful. Thank you.
Jeffrey R. Kotkin:
Thank you, Kit. We don’t have any more questionnaire. So, we want to thank you joining us today. If you have any further questions, please call John or myself, later in the day. Have a great weekend.
Operator:
Thank you. And thank you ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.