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Evergy, Inc. logo
Evergy, Inc.
EVRG · US · NASDAQ
58.69
USD
-0.31
(0.53%)
Executives
Name Title Pay
Mr. David A. Campbell Chief Executive Officer & Chairman of the Board 2.54M
Mr. Geoffrey T. Ley Vice President, Acting Chief Financial Officer, Corporate Planning & Treasurer --
Ms. Lesley Lissette Elwell Senior Vice President, Chief Human Resources Officer & Chief Diversity Officer --
Ms. Heather A. Humphrey Senior Vice President, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary 1M
Mr. Kevin E. Bryant Executive Vice President & Chief Operating Officer 1.27M
Mr. Charles A. Caisley Senior Vice President of Public Affairs & Chief Customer Officer 967K
Mr. Charles L. King Senior Vice President & Chief Technology Officer --
Mr. Steven P. Busser Vice President & Chief Accounting Officer --
Mr. Peter Francis Flynn Director of Investor Relations --
Mr. Cleveland O. Reasoner III Vice President & Chief Nuclear Officer --
Insider Transactions
Date Name Title Acquisition Or Disposition Stock / Options # of Shares Price
2024-07-01 WILDER C JOHN director A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 638 0
2024-06-21 Ley Geoffrey T VP, ACTING CFO, TREASURER A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 4590 0
2024-06-21 Ley Geoffrey T officer - 0 0
2024-05-08 WILDER C JOHN director A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 3215 0
2024-05-08 Sharma Neal A director A - A-Award Common Stock 2847 0
2024-05-08 Scarola James director A - A-Award Common Stock 2847 0
2024-05-08 PRICE SANDRA J director A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 2847 0
2024-05-08 Murtlow Ann D. director A - A-Award Common Stock 2847 0
2024-05-08 Lawrence Sandra AJ director A - A-Award Common Stock 2847 0
2024-05-08 Landrieu Mary L. director A - A-Award Common Stock 2847 0
2024-05-08 Keglevic Paul director A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 2847 0
2024-05-08 ISAAC B ANTHONY director A - A-Award Common Stock 1424 0
2024-05-08 ISAAC B ANTHONY director A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 1423 0
2024-04-01 WILDER C JOHN director A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 258 0
2024-03-02 KING CHARLES L SVP & CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1674 0
2024-03-02 KING CHARLES L SVP & CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 491 49.12
2024-03-02 KING CHARLES L SVP & CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER A - A-Award Common Stock 3267 0
2024-03-02 KING CHARLES L SVP & CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 741 49.12
2024-03-01 KING CHARLES L SVP & CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 1910 0
2024-03-02 KING CHARLES L SVP & CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1674 0
2024-03-02 Humphrey Heather A SVP - GEN COUNSEL, CORP SEC A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3991 0
2024-03-02 Humphrey Heather A SVP - GEN COUNSEL, CORP SEC D - F-InKind Common Stock 1163 49.12
2024-03-02 Humphrey Heather A SVP - GEN COUNSEL, CORP SEC A - A-Award Common Stock 7788 0
2024-03-02 Humphrey Heather A SVP - GEN COUNSEL, CORP SEC D - F-InKind Common Stock 1573 49.12
2024-03-01 Humphrey Heather A SVP - GEN COUNSEL, CORP SEC A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 4185 0
2024-03-02 Humphrey Heather A SVP - GEN COUNSEL, CORP SEC D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 3991 0
2024-03-01 Elwell Lesley Lissette SVP & CHIEF HRO & CHIEF DO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2753 0
2024-03-01 Elwell Lesley Lissette SVP & CHIEF HRO & CHIEF DO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 2416 0
2024-03-01 Elwell Lesley Lissette SVP & CHIEF HRO & CHIEF DO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 7017 0
2024-03-01 Elwell Lesley Lissette SVP & CHIEF HRO & CHIEF DO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2416 0
2024-03-01 Elwell Lesley Lissette SVP & CHIEF HRO & CHIEF DO D - F-InKind Common Stock 823 49.12
2024-03-02 Caisley Charles A. SVP - PA & CHIEF CO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3182 0
2024-03-02 Caisley Charles A. SVP - PA & CHIEF CO D - F-InKind Common Stock 933 49.12
2024-03-02 Caisley Charles A. SVP - PA & CHIEF CO A - A-Award Common Stock 6211 0
2024-03-02 Caisley Charles A. SVP - PA & CHIEF CO D - F-InKind Common Stock 1288 49.12
2024-03-01 Caisley Charles A. SVP - PA & CHIEF CO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 4371 0
2024-03-02 Caisley Charles A. SVP - PA & CHIEF CO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 3182 0
2024-03-02 BUSSER STEVEN P VP & CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1200 0
2024-03-02 BUSSER STEVEN P VP & CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 359 49.12
2024-03-02 BUSSER STEVEN P VP & CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER A - A-Award Common Stock 2343 0
2024-03-02 BUSSER STEVEN P VP & CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 595 49.12
2024-03-01 BUSSER STEVEN P VP & CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 1331 0
2024-03-02 BUSSER STEVEN P VP & CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1200 0
2024-03-02 Bryant Kevin E. EVP - CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER A - M-Exempt Common Stock 6512 0
2024-03-02 Bryant Kevin E. EVP - CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 2017 49.12
2024-03-02 Bryant Kevin E. EVP - CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER A - A-Award Common Stock 12711 0
2024-03-02 Bryant Kevin E. EVP - CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 2523 49.12
2024-03-01 Bryant Kevin E. EVP - CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 6951 0
2024-03-02 Bryant Kevin E. EVP - CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 6512 0
2024-03-02 Andrews Kirkland B EVP - Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 7411 0
2024-03-02 Andrews Kirkland B EVP - Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 14467 0
2024-03-02 Andrews Kirkland B EVP - Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 3093 49.12
2024-03-02 Andrews Kirkland B EVP - Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 6157 49.12
2024-03-01 Andrews Kirkland B EVP - Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 7894 0
2024-03-02 Andrews Kirkland B EVP - Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 7411 0
2024-03-02 Campbell David A President and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 21950 0
2024-03-02 Campbell David A President and CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 42847 0
2024-03-02 Campbell David A President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 9910 49.12
2024-03-01 Campbell David A President and CEO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 25247 0
2024-03-02 Campbell David A President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 12953 49.12
2024-03-02 Campbell David A President and CEO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 21950 0
2024-02-22 Andrews Kirkland B EVP - Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 18096 0
2024-02-22 Andrews Kirkland B EVP - Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 6666 50.26
2024-02-22 Andrews Kirkland B EVP - Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 18096 0
2024-01-02 WILDER C JOHN director A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 647 0
2023-12-31 Campbell David A President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 8162 52.2
2023-10-02 WILDER C JOHN director A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 666 0
2023-10-02 RUELLE MARK A director A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 444 0
2023-10-02 HYDE THOMAS D director A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 715 0
2023-09-20 Elwell Lesley Lissette SVP & CHIEF HRO & CHIEF DO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 22 0
2023-09-20 Elwell Lesley Lissette SVP & CHIEF HRO & CHIEF DO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 22 0
2023-09-20 Elwell Lesley Lissette SVP & CHIEF HRO & CHIEF DO D - F-InKind Common Stock 6 54.35
2023-09-07 Elwell Lesley Lissette SVP & CHIEF HRO & CHIEF DO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1967 0
2023-09-07 Elwell Lesley Lissette SVP & CHIEF HRO & CHIEF DO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1967 0
2023-09-07 Elwell Lesley Lissette SVP & CHIEF HRO & CHIEF DO D - F-InKind Common Stock 577 53.61
2023-07-03 WILDER C JOHN director A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 578 0
2023-07-03 RUELLE MARK A director A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 386 0
2023-07-03 HYDE THOMAS D director A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 621 0
2023-06-14 Landrieu Mary L. director D - S-Sale Common Stock 1170 59.6197
2023-06-09 Sharma Neal A - 0 0
2023-05-25 Elwell Lesley Lissette SVP & CHIEF HRO & CHIEF DO D - S-Sale Common Stock 1328 57.6692
2023-05-12 Lawrence Sandra AJ director D - S-Sale Common Stock 2523 62.3237
2023-05-03 WILDER C JOHN director A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 2880 0
2023-05-03 Scarola James director A - A-Award Common Stock 2523 0
2023-05-03 RUELLE MARK A director A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 3819 0
2023-05-03 PRICE SANDRA J director A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 2523 0
2023-05-03 Murtlow Ann D. director A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 2523 0
2023-05-03 Lawrence Sandra AJ director A - A-Award Common Stock 2523 0
2023-05-03 Landrieu Mary L. director A - A-Award Common Stock 2523 0
2023-05-03 Keglevic Paul director A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 2523 0
2023-05-03 ISAAC B ANTHONY director A - A-Award Common Stock 1262 0
2023-05-03 ISAAC B ANTHONY director A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 1261 0
2023-05-03 HYDE THOMAS D director A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 2906 0
2023-04-03 WILDER C JOHN director A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 187 0
2023-04-03 RUELLE MARK A director A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 123 0
2023-04-03 HYDE THOMAS D director A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 209 0
2023-03-09 Bryant Kevin E. EVP - CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER D - S-Sale Common Stock 22500 59.8084
2023-03-03 BUSSER STEVEN P VP & CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER A - M-Exempt Common Stock 886 0
2023-03-03 BUSSER STEVEN P VP & CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 315 59.53
2023-03-03 BUSSER STEVEN P VP & CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER A - A-Award Common Stock 1983 0
2023-03-03 BUSSER STEVEN P VP & CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 492 59.53
2023-03-03 BUSSER STEVEN P VP & CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 886 0
2023-03-03 KING CHARLES L SVP & CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1081 0
2023-03-03 KING CHARLES L SVP & CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 374 59.53
2023-03-03 KING CHARLES L SVP & CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER A - A-Award Common Stock 2421 0
2023-03-03 KING CHARLES L SVP & CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 550 59.53
2023-03-03 KING CHARLES L SVP & CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1081 0
2023-03-03 Humphrey Heather A SVP - GEN COUNSEL, CORP SEC A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2743 0
2023-03-03 Humphrey Heather A SVP - GEN COUNSEL, CORP SEC D - F-InKind Common Stock 868 59.53
2023-03-03 Humphrey Heather A SVP - GEN COUNSEL, CORP SEC A - A-Award Common Stock 6138 0
2023-03-03 Humphrey Heather A SVP - GEN COUNSEL, CORP SEC D - F-InKind Common Stock 1320 59.53
2023-03-03 Humphrey Heather A SVP - GEN COUNSEL, CORP SEC D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 2743 0
2023-03-03 Caisley Charles A. SVP - PA & CHIEF CO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1234 0
2023-03-03 Caisley Charles A. SVP - PA & CHIEF CO D - F-InKind Common Stock 427 59.53
2023-03-03 Caisley Charles A. SVP - PA & CHIEF CO A - A-Award Common Stock 2762 0
2023-03-03 Caisley Charles A. SVP - PA & CHIEF CO D - F-InKind Common Stock 598 59.53
2023-03-03 Caisley Charles A. SVP - PA & CHIEF CO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1234 0
2023-03-03 Bryant Kevin E. EVP - CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3909 0
2023-03-03 Bryant Kevin E. EVP - CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 1201 59.53
2023-03-03 Bryant Kevin E. EVP - CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER A - A-Award Common Stock 8746 0
2023-03-03 Bryant Kevin E. EVP - CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 1896 59.53
2023-03-03 Bryant Kevin E. EVP - CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 3909 0
2023-03-01 KING CHARLES L SVP & CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 1444 0
2023-03-01 Humphrey Heather A SVP - GEN COUNSEL, CORP SEC A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 3316 0
2023-03-01 Elwell Lesley Lissette SVP & CHIEF HRO & CHIEF DO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2069 0
2023-03-01 Caisley Charles A. SVP - PA & CHIEF CO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 3373 0
2023-03-01 BUSSER STEVEN P VP & CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 1027 0
2023-03-01 Bryant Kevin E. EVP - CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 5470 0
2023-03-01 Andrews Kirkland B EVP - Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 6234 0
2023-03-01 Campbell David A President and CEO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 19415 0
2023-02-22 Andrews Kirkland B EVP - Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 17314 0
2023-02-22 Andrews Kirkland B EVP - Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 6488 60.93
2023-02-22 Andrews Kirkland B EVP - Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 17314 0
2023-01-03 WILDER C JOHN director A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 517 0
2023-01-03 RUELLE MARK A director A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 338 0
2023-01-03 HYDE THOMAS D director A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 577 0
2022-12-31 Campbell David A President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 8225 62.93
2022-11-01 KING CHARLES L SVP & CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1301 0
2022-11-01 KING CHARLES L SVP & CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 381 61.16
2022-11-01 KING CHARLES L SVP & CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1301 0
2022-10-03 WILDER C JOHN director A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 548 0
2022-10-03 RUELLE MARK A director A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 358 0
2022-10-03 HYDE THOMAS D director A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 611 0
2022-09-07 Elwell Lesley Lissette SVP & CHIEF HR OFFICER D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1892 0
2022-09-07 Elwell Lesley Lissette SVP & CHIEF HR OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 576 70.12
2022-07-01 WILDER C JOHN A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 499 0
2022-07-01 RUELLE MARK A A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 326 0
2022-07-01 HYDE THOMAS D A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 556 0
2022-06-02 Lawrence Sandra AJ D - S-Sale Common Stock 400 69.98
2022-06-03 Lawrence Sandra AJ director D - S-Sale Common Stock 400 70.0075
2022-05-26 Lawrence Sandra AJ D - S-Sale Common Stock 400 69.793
2022-05-23 Lawrence Sandra AJ D - S-Sale Common Stock 500 68.2232
2022-05-25 Lawrence Sandra AJ director D - S-Sale Common Stock 500 69.4841
2022-05-18 Lawrence Sandra AJ D - S-Sale Common Stock 657 67.18
2022-05-04 WILDER C JOHN A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 2460 0
2022-05-04 SODERSTROM S CARL JR A - A-Award Common Stock 2152 0
2022-05-04 RUELLE MARK A A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 3171 0
2022-05-04 PRICE SANDRA J A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 2152 0
2022-05-04 Murtlow Ann D. A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 2152 0
2022-05-04 Lawrence Sandra AJ A - A-Award Common Stock 2152 0
2022-05-04 Landrieu Mary L. A - A-Award Common Stock 2152 0
2022-05-04 Keglevic Paul A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 2152 0
2022-05-04 ISAAC B ANTHONY A - A-Award Common Stock 2152 0
2022-05-04 HYDE THOMAS D A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 2495 0
2022-05-04 Scarola James A - A-Award Common Stock 2152 0
2022-05-03 Scarola James - 0 0
2022-04-01 WILDER C JOHN A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 173 0
2022-04-01 RUELLE MARK A A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 113 0
2022-04-01 HYDE THOMAS D A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 219 0
2022-03-10 KING CHARLES L SVP & CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER D - S-Sale Common Stock 1200 63.2627
2022-03-01 KING CHARLES L SVP & CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1130 0
2022-03-01 KING CHARLES L SVP & CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER A - A-Award Common Stock 3368 0
2022-03-01 KING CHARLES L SVP & CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 331 60.88
2022-03-01 KING CHARLES L SVP & CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 820 60.88
2022-03-01 KING CHARLES L SVP & CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 1340 0
2022-03-01 KING CHARLES L SVP & CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1130 0
2022-03-01 Humphrey Heather A SVP - GEN COUNSEL, CORP SEC A - A-Award Common Stock 9025 0
2022-03-01 Humphrey Heather A SVP - GEN COUNSEL, CORP SEC D - F-InKind Common Stock 2085 60.88
2022-03-01 Humphrey Heather A SVP - GEN COUNSEL, CORP SEC D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 3029 0
2022-03-01 GREENWOOD GREG A EVP & CHIEF STRATEGY OFFICER A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3754 0
2022-03-01 GREENWOOD GREG A EVP & CHIEF STRATEGY OFFICER A - A-Award Common Stock 11187 0
2022-03-01 GREENWOOD GREG A EVP & CHIEF STRATEGY OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 1289 60.88
2022-03-01 GREENWOOD GREG A EVP & CHIEF STRATEGY OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 2533 60.88
2022-02-08 GREENWOOD GREG A EVP & CHIEF STRATEGY OFFICER D - G-Gift Common Stock 26 0
2022-03-01 GREENWOOD GREG A EVP & CHIEF STRATEGY OFFICER A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 3155 0
2022-03-01 GREENWOOD GREG A EVP & CHIEF STRATEGY OFFICER D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 3754 0
2022-03-01 Elwell Lesley Lissette SVP & CHIEF HR OFFICER A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 1763 0
2022-03-01 Caisley Charles A. SVP - PA & CHIEF CO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1298 0
2022-03-01 Caisley Charles A. SVP - PA & CHIEF CO D - F-InKind Common Stock 380 60.88
2022-03-01 Caisley Charles A. SVP - PA & CHIEF CO A - A-Award Common Stock 3867 0
2022-03-01 Caisley Charles A. SVP - PA & CHIEF CO D - F-InKind Common Stock 913 60.88
2022-03-01 Caisley Charles A. SVP - PA & CHIEF CO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 3066 0
2022-03-01 Caisley Charles A. SVP - PA & CHIEF CO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1298 0
2022-03-01 BUSSER STEVEN P VP & CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1058 0
2022-03-01 BUSSER STEVEN P VP & CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER A - A-Award Common Stock 3153 0
2022-03-01 BUSSER STEVEN P VP & CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 324 60.88
2022-03-01 BUSSER STEVEN P VP & CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 821 60.88
2022-03-01 BUSSER STEVEN P VP & CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 945 0
2022-03-01 BUSSER STEVEN P VP & CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 1058 0
2022-03-01 Bryant Kevin E. EVP - CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3754 0
2022-03-01 Bryant Kevin E. EVP - CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 1118 60.88
2022-03-01 Bryant Kevin E. EVP - CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER A - A-Award Common Stock 11187 0
2022-03-01 Bryant Kevin E. EVP - CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER D - F-InKind Common Stock 2578 60.88
2022-03-01 Bryant Kevin E. EVP - CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 5125 0
2022-03-01 Bryant Kevin E. EVP - CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 3754 0
2022-03-01 Andrews Kirkland B EVP - Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 5837 0
2022-03-01 Campbell David A President and CEO A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 18393 0
2022-02-22 Andrews Kirkland B EVP - Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 16692 0
2022-02-22 Andrews Kirkland B EVP - Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Units 16692 0
2022-02-22 Andrews Kirkland B EVP - Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 16692 0
2022-02-22 Andrews Kirkland B EVP - Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 16692 0
2022-02-22 Andrews Kirkland B EVP - Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 6173 60.98
2022-02-22 Andrews Kirkland B EVP - Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 6173 60.98
2022-01-03 WILDER C JOHN director A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 1179 0
2022-01-03 STALL JOHN A director A - A-Award Common Stock 705 0
2022-01-03 SODERSTROM S CARL JR director A - A-Award Common Stock 705 0
2022-01-03 SODERSTROM S CARL JR director A - A-Award Common Stock 705 0
2022-01-03 RUELLE MARK A director A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 1282 0
2022-01-03 PRICE SANDRA J director A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 705 0
2022-01-03 Murtlow Ann D. director A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 705 0
2022-01-03 Lawrence Sandra AJ director A - A-Award Common Stock 705 0
2022-01-03 Landrieu Mary L. director A - A-Award Common Stock 705 0
2022-01-03 Keglevic Paul director A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 705 0
2022-01-03 ISAAC B ANTHONY director A - A-Award Common Stock 705 0
2022-01-03 HYDE THOMAS D director A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 1307 0
2022-01-03 CARTER MOLLIE H director A - A-Award Director Deferred Share Units 705 0
2021-12-31 Campbell David A President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 8243 68.61
2021-12-17 WILDER C JOHN director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 2200 68.015
2021-12-17 WILDER C JOHN director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 4090 67.3036
2021-12-16 WILDER C JOHN director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 6745 68.1335
2021-12-15 WILDER C JOHN director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 6775 67.6437
2021-12-15 Humphrey Heather A SVP - GEN COUNSEL, CORP SEC A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 1544 0
2021-12-14 WILDER C JOHN director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 40 68.0475
2021-12-14 WILDER C JOHN director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 6766 67.4107
2021-12-13 WILDER C JOHN director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 6806 67.6156
2021-12-10 WILDER C JOHN director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 7000 66.9635
2021-12-09 WILDER C JOHN director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 6755 66.5852
2021-12-08 WILDER C JOHN director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 6775 66.9538
2021-12-07 WILDER C JOHN director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 6806 66.7288
2021-12-06 WILDER C JOHN director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 6903 66.6869
2021-12-03 WILDER C JOHN director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 2253 64.8016
2021-12-03 WILDER C JOHN director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 4915 64.4073
2021-06-04 HYDE THOMAS D director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 400 62.5475
2021-12-02 WILDER C JOHN director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 7219 64.0345
2021-12-01 WILDER C JOHN director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 3128 64.5636
2021-12-01 WILDER C JOHN director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 4018 63.6544
2021-11-30 WILDER C JOHN director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 4739 64.577
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Transcripts
Operator:
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q2 2024 Evergy, Inc. Earnings Conference Call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers’ presentation, there will be a question and answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Peter Flynn, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Peter Flynn:
Thank you, Didi, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Evergy's Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. Our webcast slides and supplemental financial information are available on our Investor Relations website at investors.evergy.com. Today's discussion will include forward-looking information. Slide 2 and the disclosures in our SEC filings contain a list of some of the factors that could cause future results to differ materially from our expectations. They also include additional information on our non-GAAP financial measures. Joining us on today's call are David Campbell, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Geoff Ley Acting Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer. David will cover second quarter highlights, and an update on our regulatory and legislative agendas. Geoff will cover our second quarter results, retail sales trends, and our financial outlook for 2024. Other members of management are with us and will be available during the Q&A portion of the call. I will now turn the call over to David.
David Campbell:
Thanks, Pete, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin on Slide 5. This morning, we reported second quarter adjusted earnings of $0.90 per share compared to $0.81 per share a year ago. The increase in adjusted earnings over the last year was driven primarily by demand growth, weather, new retail rates and higher transmission margin, partially offset by higher operations and maintenance cost D&A and interest expense. Geoff will discuss these earnings drivers in more detail in his remarks. Now as you all know, Kirk Andrews resigned from his role as Chief Financial Officer on June 4th. We were excited to appoint Geoff Ley as Acting CFO on June 7th while we conduct an internal and external search. We expect to conclude the search this year. Geoff worked closely with Kirk and me and he brings enough standing capabilities set to the role which has enabled a smooth transition. We’d like to thank Kirk for his leadership and we wish him all the best in his next chapter of his career closer to home. In May, we filed our triennial integrated resource plan in Kansas following a similar filing for Missouri in April. In aggregate, the 2024 preferred plan included 5800 megawatts of resource addition through 2033 representing an increase of 1500 megawatts over the next ten years when compared to the 2023 preferred plan. Our IRP and its underlying analysis reflect the benefits of a diverse field mix. Renewables have a low or negative marginal cost to no emissions, but they are intermittent depending on Mother Nature, our large-scale storage deployment from a liability. New and existing thermal resources are emitting and at higher marginal cost for fuel and O&M, but they can be dispatched to meet customer demand when they are needed most. The ultimate goal of having a balanced mix is to ensure reliability and affordability for our customers as we advance the responsible fleet transition. This transition requires sustained investments over the coming years and we’ll incorporate the most recent IRP and its higher levels of new generation when we provide an update to our capital plan on the third quarter earnings call. Shifting back to the quarter, since the beginning of April, we experienced ten severe west storm events that produced wind gust in excess of 50 miles per hour. Wind speeds at this level downs countless trees and tree lens and cause extensive damage to equipment and structures across our service territory. I'd like to thank our customers for their patience during outages caused by this unusually severe weather. And thanks our transmission and distribution teams, contractors, personnel from neighboring utilities and our call center and customer service employees for their hard work throughout our storm restoration efforts. Our frontline employees at a bedrock of safely delivering affordable and reliable power to our customers and communities. We're extremely proud of their contribution as we worked long shifts through hot and humid conditions. Our teams’ execution has enabled solid performance in the first half of the year and we are reaffirming our 2024 adjusted EPS guidance range of $3.73 to $3.93 cents per share, as well as our target long-term annual adjusted EPS growth target of 4% to 6% from 2023 to 2026. On Slide six, we highlight three major economic development wins that we have featured. Google, Panasonic, and Meta. In aggregate, their demand represents approximately 750 megawatts of load, and each will be the largest customer in their respective jurisdiction by a wide margin. The overall economic development pipeline remains robust in both Kansas and Missouri with projects representing more than six Gigawatts of demand actively considering our service territories. As a reminder, our capital investment in load growth forecasts only reflect projects announced to-date. And many of you will ask us about timing as a general rule, we will announce specifics on these projects in tandem with customer announcements regarding their plans. Of course, the environment for new economic development projects is competitors and while we do not expect to win all of these projects in our pipeline, we are excited by the very active dialogue we are having with these potential customers as they consider our region. Our strategic focus on affordability and reliability and regional rate competitiveness are important contributors to this pipeline and provide a foundation for the tremendous potential in our region building on our success with Panasonic, Meta and Google. As part of the exercise, alongside the economic development rates that are in place in both Kansas and Missouri, we're looking at rate design elements to ensure that there is appropriate and adequate recovery associated with large new loads. Moving to Slide 7, based on the announcements of Google datacenter, Panasonic’s EV battery manufacturing facility, and Meta’s datacenter, along with other announced industrial projects, we expect a solid 2% to 3% weather-normalized demand growth through 2028. Moving to Slide 8, I'll provide an update on our regulatory and legislative priorities in both Kansas and Missouri. First I'm pleased to House Bill 2527 in Kansas, which became effective on July 1st of this year. The bill incorporated multiple provisions to establish a competitive framework for electric infrastructure investment, including the use of plant and service accounting or PISA and a construction work in progress mechanism that applies to new natural gas units. The PISA provisions and in HB 2527 served to mitigate regulatory lag between rate cases very similar to how it works in Missouri that with a 90% deferral in Kansas. Overall, the passage of HB 2527 signals the support of Kansas’ legislators, regulators and stakeholders for infrastructure investment and support of economic development and the importance of a competitive and constructive regulatory framework for infrastructure investment. It is an exciting time in our region as reflected by our significantly higher sales growth forecast relative to recent history. We're also looking forward to our Capital Structure Workshop in Kansas, which we expect to occur in the fourth quarter. This Workshop, which was born out of our legislative discussions with Kansas Stakeholders earlier in the year presents an opportunity for constructive dialogues around the importance of a clear, and stable framework, a regulatory capital structure and authorized return outside the confines of litigated proceeding. This framework serves an important backdrop for providers of capital to invest in Kansas and for Evergy to attract competitively priced capital, much like the constructs that exist in Missouri and other neighboring states. As always, we are committed to advancing the generational economic development opportunity ahead of us in concert with Kansas policymakers and stakeholders. Now pivoting to Missouri, we continue to work our way to our pending rate case at Missouri West. In late June, staff and other interveners filed direct testimony and earlier this week, all parties filed rebuttal testimony. True-up and surrebuttal testimony will be filed in September 10. In our upcoming filings, we anticipate that our overall revenue requests will decrease as a result of lower fuel and power costs, reflecting lower commodity prices and higher market revenues. As a reminder, changes in fuel and power costs are not earnings drivers in the rate case. The expected reduction in fuel cost would be a pass-through benefit to customers in base rates. Any subsequent increases or decreases in these costs after the new base rates are set will be reflected in the fuel clause between rate cases. After true-up and surrebuttal testimony are filed, a settlement conference will be held on September 23rd, called by hearing beginning on September 30th and running through early October. Revised rates in Missouri will go into effect by January 1st, 2025. We look forward to working collaboratively with the Missouri Public Service Commission staff and our stakeholders to achieve a constructive outcome for our Missouri West customers. As we described, we expect our cadence of rate cases going forward to be roughly every other year, but that won’t be true for every jurisdiction, some may be more frequent, others less. I’ll conclude my remarks with Slide nine, which highlights the core tenets of our strategy, affordability, reliability and sustainability. On the affordability front, advancing regional rate competitiveness is one of our primary objectives. Our focus on delivering benefits to our customers is demonstrated in the comparative EIA data on rate trends across the Central United States over the past five years. Kansas, Missouri stand out positively in that comparison. Our strategic plan is designed is to sustain this positive trajectory by keeping our long-term rate trajectory at or below the rate of inflation. By prioritizing affordability, we contribute to the robust economic development pipeline ahead of us and lay the groundwork for continued support for the substantial economic potential within our states. Ensuring reliability is also a core element of our strategy encompasses safety, grid resiliency and public safety. This also includes a focus on metrics related to customer service, the commercial availability of our generation fleet, safety and all elements of our operations including infrastructure investment. With respect to sustainability, almost half the power generated by Evergy comes from emission-free resources. Since 2005, we have reduced carbon emissions by 53% and sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide emissions by 98% and 90% respectively. Our integrated resource plan includes the balanced mix of resource additions going forward as we manage the responsible transition of our generation portfolio. Evergy is committed to delivering safe, reliable affordable and sustainable energy to customers, while being a great place to work for diverse workforce and supporting the communities we serve. With that, I will now turn the call over to Geoff.
Geoff Ley:
Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone. Before we walk through our financial results, I wanted to take a moment to mention what an honor and privilege it is for me to have this opportunity to serve as the Acting CFO for Evergy. The transition has been a smooth one due to the support that I have received throughout from David, our Board and the entire Evergy team, for which I am very grateful. I would be remised if I also didn't thank my family for their continued support of my career. Back to the business at hand, I'll start by turning to Slide 11 with a review of our results for the quarter. For the second quarter of 2024, Evergy delivered adjusted earnings of $207 million or $0.90 per share, compared to $186.1 million or $0.81 per share in the second quarter of 2023. As shown on the Slide from left to right, the year-over-year increase in second quarter of adjusted EPS was driven by the following
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from James Kennedy of Guggenheim Partners. Your line is open. Hey guys, good morning.
James Kennedy:
Hey guys. Good morning.
David Campbell:
Morning.
James Kennedy:
So, I guess, just starting with the upcoming Kansas Workshop, can you speak a little more to your approach for the event I guess, what should we expect in terms of outputs? How could this carry forward into the case next year I guess will we get a report that could be filed in direct testimony? Just kind of how to think about the workshop? Thanks.
David Campbell:
It's a great question and obviously, that's something that we're going to work collaboratively with HCC staff in particular on the approach. Our objective in the workshop is outside the context of a litigated proceeding to really discuss with all parties and ground ourselves and what's the best way for Kansas to have a competitive approach to attracting capital. So we anticipate this is going to be a workshop, not a decision-oriented meeting, but a workshop that enables a robust discussion the underlying facts in terms of approaches across the country and Kansas, the competitive landscape. How the impacts the strengths as a relative utility and our ability to attract capital. And so, we really think it's a good dialogue to help level set. Not leading to a decision, but to help to have a level setting approach and how we best position Kansas to attractively - to attract capital competitively. And doing that before the rate case, outside the rate case winning is a best way to have a good dialogue around it. And the details will be forthcoming obviously as we finalize them. So I won't get ahead of that. We do expect it to occur in the fourth quarter.
James Kennedy:
Okay. Any timing expectations within 4Q at this point?
David Campbell:
There will be advance notice when the dates are set. We’re not trying to hide anything. It’s really just lining up calendar. So we're going through the pitch.
James Kennedy:
Okay, perfect. And then, just on the datacenter side of few of your peers, this quarter, gave a rules of thumb regarding large interconnections and associated residential transmission savings. I guess is that's something you'll see on your system and any kind of quantification there as you get these interconnections online?
David Campbell:
Yeah, the approach we're taking is really specific to each situation because it really varies frankly based on, location matters a lot, based on availability within the transmission system, what kind of upgrades may be required. So, particularly with the large loads, we found that rule of thumb it’s such a wide range and it's not especially helpful as a rule of thumb. So we generally are linking that to specific projects. So we'll update our capital plan to reflect the projects that are been announced and the specific impacts that they have. So, for example, in our capital plan update we'll do in the third quarter, the Google announcement was subsequent to our last capital filing will incorporate the impacts of the Google announcement and its impact on our T&D system in that update. But the rule of thumb really varies significantly based on size of customer and specific location. We did mention - I know that folks are interested in the quantification of size. We were comfortable describing how projects representing more than six gigawatts were in active discussions with those parties. But of course, we're at being at the end of the earnings season, we've seen a lot of different companies have discussed very large numbers. There's no doubt that different counterparties are talking to various utilities. That said, we're excited by that we are in very active and specific discussions. So we look forward to advancing those in the coming months and our approach will be to really nice specifics when customers are ready to announce at the same time.
James Kennedy:
Excellent. Thanks guys. I appreciate it. Take care.
David Campbell:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Nicholas Campanella of Barclays. Your line is open.
Nicholas Campanella :
Hey, good morning. Happy Friday.
David Campbell:
Good morning, Nick.
Nicholas Campanella :
Hopefully, you can hear me. Morning. So hey, just a follow-up on the datacenter discussion. Just outside of that six gigs, it's only Google that's included in the IRP's today. So if any of this additional comes to fruition, you would have to revisit the capital plan. Is that the right understanding? That's one. And then the secondly is just, on the rate tariffs, David, you talked about for large loads, just maybe expand on what the process looks like for that. Do you have to do - would you do that in a formal rate case? And how should we think about that? Thanks.
David Campbell:
Good questions. Unpacking several in it there and thank you for clarifying on the capital plan refresh because it's a good point. So the capital plan we published back in February did not include the Google announcement. The IRP that we published in April and May did reflect the Google announcement but was not incorporated, and the IRP refresh was also not reflected in the capital plan refresh. And so, any subsequent announcements would not only be incorporated a cap plan refresh, but also be incorporated in any of our resource planning going forward. So hopefully that's clear as none. But it's, so, again, that capital fund refresh is going to reflect both Google and the new IRP. But any further announcements beyond the three that we mentioned will entail like incremental resources additions because we're, like many, we’re really hitting our capacity constraints. The six gigs that we described are – it reflects not only datacenters, but there's a large range of onshoring manufacturing opportunities, but certainly fair to say that datacenters are the largest, but there's a range of different industries that are looking at our region. Frankly, as reflected by the Panasonic announcement, because it's a very big player too. So, 6 gigs incorporates a diverse set of industries. In terms of tariffs, we've got a pretty good set of tariffs that we can leverage within our system today. So it's a little bit TBD. But we anticipate that we'll be moving forward largely leveraging the existing tariff structures that we have in both of our states because we've got an array of things already on the books. And we will consider I know in some other jurisdictions folks who launch specific proceedings around tailored rates, but we like the different structures that we have in place. How we are thinking about it is, just to make sure that the economic development rates that were put in place are there for reason. They're there to attract economic developments, but at the size of the potential loads we’re talking about and the resource additions they may retail for the incremental lows that we're looking at thinking about, how do we make sure that we've got a rate structure that takes account of the incremental cost for being incurred. So it's a fair approach that really benefits everyone, because we think it is a win-win to all of us.
Nicholas Campanella :
Hey, that's great. I appreciate that. And then, just on the upcoming capital refresh into the third quarter, just wanted to be clear on what to expect will obviously get the new CapEx plan. Would you be giving rate base growth as well and then EPS guidance and the five-year CAGR more a fourth quarter call item. Just what are you planning to build on? Thank you.
David Campbell:
Thank you, Nick. We anticipate that we're really focused on the CapEx plan and the rate base growth in the third quarter call as well as the associated financing plan. So those are the elements that we expect to cover in the third quarter. And our typical cadence in talking about earnings is the fourth quarter, but we're absolutely going to go through as we talk about the CapEx plan in conjunction with that, I think rate base growth and our financing plan will be to focus on that - on that call.
Nicholas Campanella:
Okay. Thanks so much. Have a great weekend. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith of Jeffries. Your line is open.
Brian Russo:
Yeah, hi, it's actually Brian Russo on for Julien.
David Campbell:
Good morning. And welcome to the team.
Brian Russo:
Thank you. Hey just in Missouri, the inability at the legislature to extend pieces to include dispatchable generation, does that at all impact, I think what's in the IRP and/or your earned returns in Missouri and cadence of rate cases or do you think this is likely to be picked up with the next legislature and then that gives you more of the time when any dispatchable generation is planned in the IRP?
David Campbell:
No, thank you for your question. The IRP that we put forward obviously reflects the mechanisms that are in place in Missouri today. So you'll see that we and the other large utilities in the state are planning to build new generation including a new natural gas, it's in our integrated resource plans. I think it will be very important to find ways to do that in a way that’s particularly effective from a credit metric and cash flow perspective. So that the construction work in progress mechanism and a piece extension to include new natural gas will be helpful and enabling Missouri to be competitive and sourcing natural gas plants. We thought there was a great dialogue around those provisions in the last legislative session. At the end of the day, there was a new legislation passed, but the range of stakeholders who were supportive of new natural gas generation and having new dispatchable generation in the state that was a broad and diverse set of folks who are support for that. So we look forward with other utilities and the other stakeholders to supportive to advance that dialogue in the upcoming session. And we won't have a in the same General Election dynamics present in the next session. So we'll really be able to focus in on the merits of those provisions we think there is broad based support. But I do think new generation is important for Missouri to take advantage of the growth that it is on the Missouri side of the state line, both Google and Meta, for example are in our Missouri jurisdiction. So we look forward to advancing that dialogue because having a diverse portfolio, growing that portfolio is important to support the growth that we expect we can we can attract into Missouri.
Brian Russo:
Okay, great. And then just up to confirm the 2% to 3% weather-normalized sales growth, it seems clear that it's more back-end loaded. Do you think it's going to kind of track that ‘26 to ‘28 time period for Google, Panasonic and Meta? And then, is Google still on track and on schedule, has that broke ground yet or is it still in the development stage?
Geoff Ley:
I can cover the first part on the on the demand, Brian. As we think about the demand going forward, as I mentioned, we have the ramp of Panasonic, Meta and Google kind of in order over the ‘26 through 2028 period. So we'll see a light ramp up of some of those in 2024, but you'll see more contributing in 2025 and it will continue to build momentum as we move through the period through 2028. So you will see that continue to build, but you should see year-over-year increases in that growth rate as we move forward through that 2% to 3% range that we discussed.
David Campbell:
On the Google side, they're given very high. They had a very – the public announcements are very broad set of stakeholders, the Mayor and state officials from Missouri are present. They've lined at the land and the site. So, I think site work is underway. I don't think the datacenter construction has yet started, but Google is very committed to the region as reflected by their public announcement there. So we're excited by – Google is excited about building facility in our region.
Brian Russo:
Okay. And then, just lastly on the IRP's, can we expect kind of a supplemental IRP possibly in 2025 there's some of this 6 gigawatts of potential load materializes?
David Campbell:
So, and that the process in both of our states we have a triennial update, but we have an annual refresh. So yes, in practice, you'll have an update next to the same time in next year April and 1 May in the other and the triennial updates historically were the more significant ones it was a process in Missouri, it's still relatively new process in Kansas. But with so much happening on the demand side a lot of changes are now happening year-to-year. So, yes, we'll have an annual process and we'll - so that as new loads emerge and we add them to our plans. Those will be reflected in our annual update.
Brian Russo:
Okay. Great. Thank you very much.
David Campbell:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael Sullivan of Wolfe. Your line is open.
Michael Sullivan :
Hey, good morning.
David Campbell:
Good morning, Michael.
Michael Sullivan :
Hey, David. I just wanted to go back to Nick’s question just in terms of like expectations for the Q3 call update. In terms of financing needs, are you all still planning to stick with kind of that, I guess, mismatch of three year view on financing versus five year on CapEx?
David Campbell:
So, and Michael I know that you're missing your fellow Demon Deacon and let’s it's call so we're going have to know insights wake for us comments this time, but the - we expect Pete gave me a little elbow and my response, I think will of course comment on our earnings growth expectations in the third quarter call. So, we will - our focus is on what the CapEx plan update will be. But we're planning to talk about the financing strategy that’s because obviously if you put changes to a CapEx plan, you've got to talk about your plans for financing that. And we'll talk about our financing plans through the period of the CapEx refresh. So, if it - five-year update on the CapEx plan. We will talk about our financing plan through that period.
Michael Sullivan :
Okay. That's not how it is today though, right? So that is kind of different, you talk about no equity through ‘26 or did you…
David Campbell:
You are right o say, yeah, what we - what our past comments we really didn't couple with what we said was we know equity would be required in the future. No equity needs to ’26. We weren’t specific on what happens after ’26. So I guess it was something implicit in those comments. What Geoff described today and we wanted to frame it clearly, so we'll be reiterate here is that, our current capital plan is $12.5 billion. We articulated with that expectation, we wouldn't be issuing equity through 2026. As we update that capital plan, we'll update our financing expectations to the five year period at the same time. Hopefully that makes sense?
Michael Sullivan :
That makes a ton of sense and it is definitely helpful. Okay. Sorry to believer that.
David Campbell:
No, no, it's good. Appreciate you're asking.
Michael Sullivan :
Yeah. Okay. No, great to clear that up. And then, can you give us any sense of, next year's rate case outlook? I know you said kind of every other year, it could be different. How to think about which subsidiaries are going to be in next year?
David Campbell:
Well, we had Kansas rate cases in 2023. So on a - if we're on a typical cadence of every other year, I would expect that we will be revising Kansas next year. And we've seen that with the piece of framework and again, I think that the every company is different, every situation is different, but we see some other utilities who operate in piece environments and they are - they've established a cadence that's typically often an 18 months timeframe. We want to be there are pros and cons to more frequent cases, but of course with the investment levels that we all have more regular cadence of rate cases helps with respect to keeping up with that level of investment. And but also helps with the level of predictability pure step function changes for customers. So I think they're balancing the workload with the benefits of a kind of a steady progress. That's why I mentioned that while we expect every year, some will be more frequent, some less, but we certainly have seen in piece of jurisdictions where some players who establish a cadence sort of that 18, 24 month timeframe is often pretty effective and efficient.
Michael Sullivan :
Okay. That makes sense. And so, do you think you can get what you need out of the workshops and anything to buy that come from that before you actually kick off the next rate cases at the beginning of next year presumably? Or could there be some overlap?
David Campbell:
I think the workshop process will largely conclude our expectation is it will wrap up before we get in the rate case, Michael and it’s - we don't want to overstate, but we also don’t want to understate. That workshop is really to enable a dialogue around what the pretty important provision and feature for the competitiveness of Kansas in attracting capital. But it's a dialogue we want to have with our stakeholders in Kansas. And there's one thing that I've learned in my time these few years and it reinforces my experience in the industry. We just want to be on the same page with and being alongside our regulators and key stakeholders in our state. We think our Kansas regulators of constituents recognize the importance of the economic development opportunity we have and the importance of being competitive in attracting capital. So, we need the dialogue will help to level set for that, but it's and our goal is that we have that workshop in the fourth quarter. We think it will wrap up before we get into the rate case.
Michael Sullivan :
Okay. Thanks for all the responses. I appreciate it David.
David Campbell:
You bet. Thank you, Michael.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Travis Miller of Morningstar. Your line is open.
Travis Miller:
Good morning, Thank you.
David Campbell:
Good morning.
Geoff Ley:
Good morning.
Travis Miller:
Good morning. You just answered my question on the Kansas regulatory environment and timing there. So, I’ll ask more broadly just this 4% to 6% I know you're outlining a lot of positives here in terms of growth, the demands if you do go with the Kansas rate case, you would have something presumably in rates 2026 or so. The CapEx update sounds like it's going to be more positive. What are perhaps the offsets that would keep you at that 4% to 6% versus going to a 5% to 7% or more potentially even higher? Would - what are potential offsets to growth given all of the positives that you've been outlining here?
David Campbell:
But I would reinforce your comment, I think there are a lot of positive dynamics that we're seeing in our jurisdictions. Our level of rate-based growth is low relative to our peers. So 6% rate base growth we look across all our peers. I'm sure you have as well that there's typically a gap between what that rate base growth level is and what the earnings trajectory is, because you have to finance that growth and there's often a little bit of lag. Pieces are very effective mechanism for mitigating lag, but it still has some. So, what we want to get into the cadence of is, the level of investment, the pace at which we’re – if we are increasing our investment, the pace at which we increase investment, then that's going to have to roll through into rates on rate cases. So part of it is the timing of when these positives are manifested in the underlying trajectory. You also have to have a financing strategy and making sure that the financing strategy is incorporated in your front of the math. In other words turning the ship in a regulated industry, turn it overnight, but I think there are a lot of positive dynamics and I say not turn overnight because you do have to roll through the cadence the rate case is getting that investment and your rate base and then getting them into rates. But the dynamics that are the tailwinds, the economic development opportunity that supports infrastructure investment, because you're adding new loads. You can spread those fixed costs, those are real positives as you noted. So we think those are nice tailwinds for us as we systematically work through our plan and we don't plan to get ahead of our regulators and stakeholders on that. We will be working with our constituents, but we think we are all aligned and being very excited about the economic development opportunity, which is the fundamental tailwind for us.
Travis Miller:
Sure. Okay. Great. And then, real quick, can you remind us what demands growth expectation is in that 4% to 6% number?
David Campbell:
So, it's - as we noted in our materials, the 2% to 3% weather-normalized demand growth through 2028 is reflective. While we given our earnings growth the target through ’26 which Michael, indirectly teed up that he’d like to see that go longer. But it's a - we've given that the earnings growth rate through the 2026 but that sales growth rate we've extended through 2028.
Travis Miller:
Okay. And again, just to clarify, I am not going to say a lot, but some of that was 2027 and ‘28 when you see some of these large loads come on so we had to assume the 2023 to ‘26 is less than 2% to 3% percent in terms of demand growth.
David Campbell:
Yep, Travis that I think if you if you look at our disclosure on the slide, you'll see that our base demand growth projection was 0.5% to 1%. And then when we add on these new large loads through 2028, we see that growing to 2% to 3%. So I think in that interim time frame, you would see us moving from one range to the other range over time.
Geoff Ley:
So, the answer to that is, yes. I think you've got that. We're pleased about the growth trends in the first half of the year.
David Campbell:
Obviously, as we showed in the slides than a robust…
Travis Miller:
Yes, perfect.
David Campbell:
Nice robust growth in the segment.
Travis Miller:
Yeah, that's very helpful. Appreciate all the details. Thank you so much.
David Campbell:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Paul Patterson of Glenrock Associates. Your line is open.
Paul Patterson :
Hey, good morning, guys.
David Campbell:
So, thank you, Paul for the question. We - if you recall that in our rate case last year there was luminous testimony filed on the on the topic. Ultimately, we were able to tell all parties we’re able to reach a settlement that was approved by the Commission. So it was an item that was settled. And it was also an item that was part of the legislation advanced earlier this year. Ultimately, it was removed from the legislation, so HB 2527 included PISA with a 90% deferral and included a construction work in progress mechanism for new natural gas plants. But we with the parties agree that on the capital structure issue, moving from the legislation, let's have a dialogue around it. Later this year so our objective and I think is pretty straightforward. It's really to have a discussion around that. Outside the context of the contested case, the litigated proceeding and really try to level set on what is the prevailing practice. How does Kansas stack up in terms of competitiveness where to - how does it typically impact the company’s credit and other factors. So it's really just an opportunity to have a dialogue around an important issue that drives the competitiveness in attracting capital outside of a rate case. Now in the next rate case, return on equity, capital structure other things will of course be part of those proceedings. So we think having this dialogue on a topic that was at the gear of focus in ’23 when we were teeing up the importance of being competitive and attracting capital. The parties agreed and the legislative process has a workshop. So not overstating on what we're seeing or accomplished, but it's an important topic and we look forward to dialogue outside of the rate case filed.
Paul Patterson :
Okay, great. Thank you. Apologies for not picking up quick enough. So on the - just finally on - just to sort of clarify with the sort of rate design and what have you? When we think about these new projects, it sounds to me that you expect these new projects to essentially carry the cost, the incremental cost of supplying them. Is that how we should think about the attractive opportunities that are coming up here? Or do you see these as being some mix of economic developments, subsidized kind of situation or something? I just wanted to make sure I understood that.
David Campbell:
So, I think that the rates that the economic development rates that are available, because there's also a series of rate structures that are around the contemplated incremental costs are being incurred. So, I think our view is that, but particularly the size of loads 6 gigawatts up to 6 gigawatts or more, do you want to make sure that the rates that you're including are ones that reflect the incremental cost, but it doesn't mean that every rate structure is only based on incremental costs. The number of jurisdictions where the rates are based on the average cost across the system because in some instances, right, the incremental cost of a new generation maybe higher than the average installed base not always the case. We're just trying to make sure that the great thing about having a set of structures that are already in place that the rates that are in place don't end up where a huge burden is shifted to other existing customers. And we think there's a path to get there. I think that’s very similar to what other jurisdictions are grappling with the same time, Again, when you're in a situation where it's 20 megawatts of incremental load, and you've had excess capacity in the system that was often in the past sort of price and marginal costs, it's a different context here. But I think the answer is, actually probably pretty similar across different jurisdictions. It's finding a set of rate structures that make sure that you're adequately covering the overall cost to the system when you've added that much new load.
Paul Patterson :
Awesome. Thanks so much guys. Really appreciate it. Have a great weekend. Thank you. You too.
Operator:
Thank you. I'm showing no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn it back to David Campbell for closing remarks.
David Campbell:
Great, thanks, Didi. Thanks everyone for your interest in Evergy. Have a great day and have a great weekend. That concludes the call.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating and you may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q1 2024 Evergy, Inc. Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Pete Flynn, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Peter Flynn:
Thank you, Brianna. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Evergy's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. Our webcast slides and supplemental financial information are available on our Investor Relations website at investors.evergy.com.
Today's discussion will include forward-looking information. Slide 2 and the disclosures in our SEC filings contain a list of some of the factors that could cause future results to differ materially from our expectations. They also include additional information on our non-GAAP financial measures. Joining us on today's call are David Campbell, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Kirk Andrews, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. David will cover first quarter highlights, our updated integrated resource plan and provide an update on our regulatory and legislative priorities. Kirk will cover in more detail our first quarter results, retail sales trends and our financial outlook for 2024. Other members of management are with us and will be available during the Q&A portion of the call. I'll now turn the call over to David.
David Campbell:
Thank you, Pete, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin on Slide 5. This morning, we reported first quarter adjusted earnings of $0.54 per share compared to $0.59 per share a year ago. Relative to last year, this quarter's results were driven by higher operations and maintenance expense, depreciation and amortization expense and interest expense, partially offset by new retail rates and transmission margin.
Unseasonably warm weather was also a factor. Heating degree days were 11% below normal for the quarter, negatively impacting our results by an approximate $0.07 per share. Kirk will discuss these earnings drivers in more detail in his remarks. In terms of reliability, we've experienced a good start to the year through March, our average outage duration and frequency measured by SAIDI and SAIFI are trending favorably relative to our targets, demonstrating the benefits of our continued grid modernization investment and the hard work of our transmission and distribution teams. I'm also pleased to report that we're nearing completion of their 26 Wolf Creek nuclear refueling outage, consistent with our plans. Wolf Creek generates around 1,200 megawatts of non-carbon emitting energy enough to power more than 800,000 homes. The plant employs over 700 people, and that number effectively doubles during outages. I'd like to thank everyone involved for their hard work and focus on sustaining the excellent operational performance of the plant. Our team's execution has enabled a solid start to the year despite the mild weather, and we are reaffirming our 2024 adjusted EPS guidance range of $3.73 to $3.93 per share as well as our target long-term annual adjusted EPS growth target of 4% to 6% from 2023 to 2026. Slide 6 highlights our triennial Integrated Resource Plan, or IRP, which was filed on April 1 in Missouri and will be filed on May 17 in Kansas. This year's IRP reflects the impact of updating our long-term expected load growth, including the addition of the recently announced Google data center in Missouri as well as other important inputs such as resource adequacy requirements of the Southwest Power Pool, construction cost estimates, and commodity price forecasts. I'd like to briefly touch on the new rules recently issued by the Environmental Protection Agency. Our IRP process includes consideration of environmental rules, SVP rules and other regulatory requirements. So the EPA's newly issued rules will play a role in our resource planning going forward. Our overarching goal in the IRP process is to identify the most cost-effective and resilient plan that reliably serves our customers across uncertain future scenarios. We believe that renewable and natural gas additions, as shown in our IRP, are being planned in a manner that will allow Evergy to reduce carbon emissions, take advantage of best-in-class efficiency and support economic development in our service territory while striving to minimize the impact on affordability and ensuring that we can provide reliable electric service. We are assessing the potential impact of the new EPA rules from an affordability and reliability perspective as the rules would likely require significant incremental investment relative to what is currently in our IRP. For example, carbon capture and storage is an important element in the new greenhouse gas rule. At present, carbon capture and storage is an important element in the new greenhouse gas rule. At present, carbon capture and storage technology is not commercially demonstrated at scale on existing plants, along with costly and as yet unproven retrofitted control equipment, it require pipeline and storage infrastructure, which are not in place in our region. The EPA rules are expected to face legal challenges, and we will monitor those developments closely. As a reminder, in 2023, nearly half of the energy that we generated for retail customers came from carbon-free resources, reflecting the contributions of our Wolf Creek nuclear plant and the 4,600-megawatt portfolio of renewable resources that we either own or contract through long-term power purchase agreements. Evergy has invested significantly to enable our fossil units to meet existing environmental standards, operate reliably and be available to support our customers when called upon. We continue to take a balanced forward view of generation needs as shown through our IRP, which includes significant new solar, wind and natural gas balanced against the pace retirements of our coal fleet. In aggregate, the 2024 preferred plan includes 5,800 megawatts of resource additions through 2033, representing an increase of 1,500 megawatts over the next 10 years, when compared to the 2023 preferred plan. As our generation fleet evolves, we are focused on achieving a responsible balance between renewables, which are non emitting and have low or negative marginal costs but are intermittent and both new and existing thermal resources, which have higher marginal cost for fuel and O&M, but can be dispatched to meet customer demand when they are needed most. The ultimate goal of this balance is to ensure reliability and affordability for our customers as we advance a responsible transition of our generation fleet. This transition will require sustained investment over the coming years and will incorporate the most recent IRP and its higher levels of new generation when we provide an update to our capital plan in the third quarter earnings call later this year. On Slide 7, we highlight details about 3 customers, Google, Panasonic and Meta, which represent major economic development wins in 3 of our 4 jurisdictions. In aggregate, demand from these 3 customers represents approximately 750 megawatts of load and each will be the largest customer in their respective jurisdiction by a wide margin. The overall economic development pipeline continues to show promise in both Kansas and Missouri with more than $10 billion of projects considering locating in our service territories. We are very excited to work with these potential customers as they consider our region. As part of the exercise alongside the economic development rates that are in place in both Kansas and Missouri, we are looking at rate design elements to ensure that there is appropriate and adequate recovery associated with large new loads. More broadly, our strategic focus on affordability and regional rate competitiveness, is an important contributor to this large pipeline and provides a foundation for our support of the tremendous economic potential in our states. As shown on Slide 8, when factoring in economic development in these large new loads, including the recently announced Google Data Center, we are extending our weather-normalized demand growth forecast of 2% to 3% to 2028 off of the 2023 base, which previously ran through 2026. Moving to Slide 9, I'll provide an update on our regulatory and legislative priorities in both Kansas and Missouri. I'm very pleased to start by discussing House Bill 2527 in Kansas, which becomes effective on July 1 of this year. The passage of HB-2527 signals the support of Kansas legislators, regulators and stakeholders for infrastructure investment in support of economic development and the importance of a competitive and constructive regulatory framework for that infrastructure investment. It is an exciting time in the region as reflected by the significantly higher sales growth forecast relative to recent history of the business [pride.] In terms of financial impact, the piece of provisions in HB 2527 served to mitigate regulatory lag between rate cases, very similar to how it works in Missouri. The construction work in progress provisions that apply to new natural gas units also demonstrate Kansas' support for our plans to invest in new natural gas-fired generation. For our current capital expenditure plan, many of you have asked to quantify the financial impact relative to not having HP 2527 in place and how it helps to reduce the gap between [ realized ] returns and actual realized returns. Under the provisions of the new law, in the first year following a rate case at our current investment levels, the impact is roughly $0.03 to $0.04 per share. If we go 2 full years between rate cases, the impact is roughly $0.10 in the second year. And as we've described, we expect our cadence of rate cases going forward to be roughly every other year, though that won't be true for every jurisdiction. Of course, that estimated impact is a stand-alone view of a single item and does not factor in any other potential drivers, such as changes in interest rates or changes to the capital plan just to cite 2 examples. Overall, the most important aspect of the passage of HB 2527 is the alignment that it reflects in Kansas about a competitive framework for investment as we respond to historic economic development opportunities. I'd like to thank legislative leaders, Kansas Corporation Commission staff, representatives from CURB, industrial stakeholders, the Governor's office and many other stakeholders as well as the Evergy Public Affairs team for their participation and engagement in getting this legislation passed. I also want to highlight the passage of Senate Bill 410, which provides a 10-year property tax exemption for newly constructed natural gas units. The benefits of this exemption will be shared with our customers. This bill further reflects Kansas' support for our planned natural gas investments, which are a crucial aspect of our long-term resource planning to meet the demands of our growing customer base and ensure reliability. On May 17, we will file our 2024 IRP with the Kansas Corporation Commission. We bid our outlook for Kansas Central, similar to what we provided in our Missouri IRP filing. Now pivoting to Missouri, we continue to work our way through our pending general rate case in Missouri West. On June 27, staff and other interveners will file their direct testimony and rebuttal testimony is due by August 6. During the subsequent weeks, parties will file true-up and [indiscernible] testimony followed by a settlement conference around September 23. Hearings will occur in late September through early October and revised rates in Missouri West will go in effect January 2025. We look forward to working collaboratively with the Missouri Public Service Commission staff and our stakeholders to achieve a constructive outcome for our Missouri West customers. Regarding Missouri legislative initiatives, Language to amend the piece of statute has passed the house and awaits further action in the set. Key provisions would amend the piece of statute to include new natural gas units and a 90% deferral and extend the piece of sunset to 2035. Discussions around the topic and the need for new gas generation have been positive, reflecting broad support. However, given the schedule and overall session dynamics, it will be hard to get any new legislation passed in the short time remaining for the 2024 session. This initiative is no exception. I'll conclude my remarks on Slide 10, which highlights the core tenets of our strategy, affordability, reliability and sustainability. Our efforts to enhance affordability have yielded significant progress in improving regional rate competitiveness over the past few years. Our strategic plan is designed to sustain this positive trajectory. By prioritizing affordability, we contribute the robust economic development pipeline ahead of us and support the substantial economic potential within our states. Ensuring reliability is also a core element of our strategy as reflected by SAIDI safety -- excuse me, SAIDI, SAIFI, grid resiliency and public safety. This also includes a focus on metrics relating to customer service, the commercial availability of our fleet, safety in all elements of our operations, including infrastructure investments. With respect to sustainability, we continue to advance the cost-effective transition of our generation fleet. Since 2005, we have reduced carbon emissions by 53% and reduced sulfur dioxide and NOx emissions by 98% and 90%, respectively. We look forward to ongoing progress along this path. Our mission is to empower a better future, and our vision is to lead the responsible energy transition in our region, always with an eye on affordability and reliability as well as sustainability. I will now turn the call over to Kirk.
Kirkland Andrews:
Thanks, David, and good morning, everyone. Turning to Slide 12. I'll start with a review of our results for the quarter. For the first quarter of 2024, Evergy delivered adjusted earnings of $124.7 million or $0.54 per share compared to $136.1 million or $0.59 per share in the first quarter of 2023.
As shown on the slide from left to right, the year-over-year decrease in first quarter adjusted EPS was driven by the following:
First, similar to the first quarter of 2023, we saw milder-than-normal weather, particularly in the months of February and March this year. And while the year-over-year adjusted EPS impact was flat, compared to normal, weather was an estimated $0.07 unfavorable.
Next, compared to the strong demand recovery we saw in the first quarter of 2023, weather-normalized retail sales declined by 0.5% primarily driven by lower commercial and industrial demand will remain neutral to EPS. New retail rates in Kansas contributed $0.05 to the quarter. Higher transmission margins resulting from our ongoing investments to enhance our transmission infrastructure drove a $0.04 increase and O&M drove a $0.06 negative variance for the quarter. This was driven by significantly lower O&M in the first quarter of 2023, which resulted from the implementation of an early retirement program as well as timing of expenditures in '24. And overall, our O&M outlook is flat for the balance of the year versus 2023. Next, higher depreciation and amortization expense due to increased infrastructure investment drove $0.04 decrease. Higher interest expense drove a $0.03 decrease and based on our expected capital investments and the current outlook for interest rates, our expectation for interest expense for the full year remains on target. And finally, other items drove a $0.01 decrease. Turning next to Slide 13. I'll provide a brief update on our recent sales trends. On the left side of the screen, you'll see weather-normalized retail sales decreased by 0.5% over the first quarter of 2023, driven primarily by decreases in both commercial and industrial usage. While we did see further recovery from our largest refining customers in industrial, we also continued to see lower demand for other industrial customers. This was driven in part by plant retooling and expansion projects being undertaken by our customers in the food processing and additive sector, which began in late 2023. As these events are expected to be temporary, with demand from these customers recovering thereafter, we expect industrial demand to recover as we move through 2024. This will be further augmented by the expected uptick as large customers from our recent economic development wins begin to come online later this season. And we expect a more notable pickup from these new customers beyond 2024 as we expect Panasonic, Meta and Google will fully ramp their usage to full run rates in 2026, 2027 and 2028, respectively. As David noted in his remarks, in total, we are extending our weather-normalized demand growth forecast of 2% to 3% now through 2028. Our demand projections continue to be supported by a strong local labor market as Kansas and Kansas City metro area unemployment rates remain below the national average. And finally, on Slide 14, I'll wrap up with an overview of our long-term financial expectations. We are reaffirming both our adjusted EPS guidance range for 2024 as well as our long-term adjusted EPS growth target of 4% to 6% through 2026 based on the original 2023 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint of $3.65 and continue to expect to achieve this growth without the need for new equity. Our recently updated capital investment plan, which includes $12.5 billion in infrastructure investment does not yet reflect and incorporate the impact of changes that were reflected in our 2024 IRP. And as David mentioned earlier, we will provide you an update on our capital plan on our third quarter earnings call. In addition to allowing us to achieve our financial targets executing on our investment plan advances our key objectives of ensuring affordability, reliability and sustainability over the long term. And with that, I'm happy to open the call for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Nicholas Campanella from Barclays.
Nicholas Campanella:
Thank you for all the updates today. I just wanted to clarify, it's great to see the load growth extend into 2028. And I know you have the IRP coming in Kansas. Just how should we kind of think about you doing a 6% rate base CAGR right now? And does this extend your visibility to that CAGR? Or do you see that kind of pressuring higher in this new plan?
David Campbell:
It's a great question. We won't get ahead of the capital expenditure update that we're doing in the third quarter, but I will describe that. You're right, our current expectation rate base growth through 2028 is 6%. So that was the capital expenditure plan we put out on our Q4 call. It is at the low end of all of our peers, significantly below the average of our peers and part of why HB 2527 was so important was because we do see a historic economic development opportunity and pipeline in our territory and investing to take advantage of that opportunity is a lot more difficult when the returns you can offer capital are not competitive.
HB 2527 significantly improves on that. So we've noted that we do plan to update our capital expenditure plan, and that's really to reflect several things. One is the updated IRP does have higher level of generation additions. So we incorporated the 2024 IRP. We'll also incorporate economic development activities and wins we've had, for an example, the [ Aquila ] announcement is subsequent to our capital expenditure plan. There's been a lot of other activity as well. And obviously, we're continuing to look at the other grid modernization and other opportunities that we have. So we will -- we do plan to give a capital expenditure update on the third quarter. We won't get ahead of what's in it. But there are several factors that I think will do create an upward bias, but we're always -- we always take a balanced approach. What we're excited to do will be able to invest to take advantage of the opportunities that we see for our region.
Nicholas Campanella:
That's really helpful. And then I guess as we're kind of toggling CapEx and thinking about what could be incremental to the plan. Can you just remind us where you stand on your current credit metrics where you're trending for '24? And then where that is relative to your minimums and just how to think about equity needs past the time frame you've guided?
Kirkland Andrews:
Sure Nick, it's Kirk. I'll focus on the Moody's metric, which we updated on our fourth quarter call. Due to a few items, most notably, the changes in the -- we were still waiting, obviously, to securitize the Missouri West [ Weaver ] Murray -- cost, which we successfully did subsequent to the year-end. Pro forma for that other items going into 2024, we're about 15%, which is that threshold.
But as we move into 2024, some of the elements where we get a more current and efficient return both from an earnings and a cash perspective, most notably our transmission investments in Kansas and other items help contribute to the fact that we continue to see a surplus relative to that 15% threshold for Moody's. We expect to utilize that surplus to help supplement our operating cash flow to fund those capital investments without the need for new equity through 2026, and we don't -- we won't sacrifice those credit ratios in the process. So we feel comfortable with that surplus and our ability to utilize it and sort of maintain our ratios at or above the threshold through 2026.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Shar Pourreza of Guggenheim Partners.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Obviously, you guys have mentioned economic development. It's obviously been a key part of the slide decks. Data centers have obviously been kind of front and center for a lot of calls this cycle. Do you sort of have maybe a rule of thumb at this point for the amount of maybe transmission investments you're making with these sites. We've heard some of your peers like in Pennsylvania, talk about somewhere between $50 million to $150 million. Is that kind of fair to you?
David Campbell:
Shar, it really does vary depending on where the location is. Typically, there are incremental investments for very large loads. They're system investments, so it's always a little difficult. If you pegged the last bit of investment and it's all tied to that single customer. But when you have loads in the hundreds of megawatts given the size of our system and as you think of the share of our overall transition base, there's certainly some loads that will have investments around that level if you get to a significant size.
So it does vary depending on where it is and where it locates. We typically have not -- don't have a lot of spare hundreds of megawatts of capacity in our system. So if you add that much load. And obviously, that's going to help you spread your fixed costs more broadly, but there will be some incremental costs as well. So that's -- we even give them a rule of thumb, but when you're talking hundreds of megawatts that you're going to have incremental investment system. And I think probably most of our utilities will see similar numbers in the similar range. And just to note, for our plan, both Meta and Panasonic have been advanced -- had been announced before we had put out our Q4 CapEx plan. So they are included in the plan that we published, but Google had not yet announced. So it has not yet been included in our CapEx plan.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Then maybe just to hone in a little bit. Just maybe if you could just provide a little bit of directional color on the mechanics and the margin on the Google deal. Because if we understand it, you're supplying the actual megawatts, but some of the press releases, including coming from the governor, we're framing this as a self-supply setup 400 megawatts from Ranger and D. E. Shaw. So just trying to understand your exposure and obligations here.
David Campbell:
So the rates are subject to [indiscernible] agreements. I don't discuss rates. Generally, when you bring in large new loads, they're typically eligible for economic development rates. But as I described in my comments in the script, we're actively working on rate design elements to ensure that large new loads we -- the incremental considered.
There are a number of players who signed virtual PPAs. We'll still be the supplier to Google. So it will be a customer of ours and the megawatts they receive will be from us. They will -- their agreement will be in effect, a virtual PPA with -- there'll be a offtaker or an economic offtaker, but that asset where it's added will become another generation resource in the Southwest Power Pool.
Shahriar Pourreza:
And then just lastly, on the EPA regs, I mean, obviously, this was a key part of your opening prepared, right? I mean there's obviously been a lot of chatter this quarter on the regs and potential impacts to IRPs and gas generation plans. Does the April IRP just put out account for this, thinking specifically, for example, on the gas additions you proposed, which may not get credit for coal-firing hydrogen under the final rules, so CCUs only. I guess how are you approaching planning around this?
David Campbell:
Thanks, Shar. It's a great question. The IRP that we just issued in Missouri and it's an overall corporate IRP also we'll file in Kansas one here in a couple of weeks. But that IRP does not include the EPA's recently issued rules. It just came out too late to be included in the process. There's a ton of analysis that goes into it. So the new rules will be factored into our IRPs going forward.
I do not anticipate -- well, there's still a lot of analysis to do. I don't anticipate it's going to change our plans to build new gas units. We're going to need new gas to ensure reliability, we'll need it for the capacity in the system as well. I will impact our analysis of what type of gas units are added, what makes the most sense, and that will probably be an analysis that goes down the jurisdictional level. As you know, the EPA rules set rates that new efficient gas turbines can achieve. There are just some limits on the capacity factors at which they can run. So for peaking units in effect, anything in a peaking unit level is a 20% capacity factor and then intermediate units can run up to a 40% capacity factor before CCUS carbon capture and storage is required. Now we will be looking at this in the requirements because it is going to -- it will impact our resource plans, particularly with respect to the obligations for coal and the coal retirement timeline. And I won't go into all the details on this call, but basically, in a nutshell, as I mentioned in my remarks, for coal units that you're going to operate long term, carbon capture and sequestration is required. And that's just not a technology that's been proven at scale in a retrofit context for existing units. So to operate a unit past 2038, you have to have carbon capture and storage and you have to have it in place by 2032. I think it is -- you can do gas co-firing if you get on that pass and operate to the mid- to late 2030s. So this rule is going to get -- the greenhouse gas rule we get a lot of scrutiny and attention as well the other rules of the EPA put out. We think we're pretty good position to comply with the other rules, but lots of analysis still to do. There'll be legal challenges that we'll monitor closely. But our go-forward IRPs will reflect the impact of the EPS [indiscernible] so we -- gas is going to be an important part of the equation for us to ensure reliability and meet the new customer demand we're seeing and able to keep the lights on affordably.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Durgesh Chopra of Evercore ISI.
Durgesh Chopra:
Can I just -- can I just ask for clarification on the upside David that you listed from 2527 the House Bill 2527. The $0.03 to $0.04, is that really like a 20 -- like first year upsides for 2025. So this year because the bill is effective July is really 1/2 of that $0.03 to $0.04. Am I thinking about that correctly?
David Campbell:
How I describe it [indiscernible] what HB 2527 does is it just helps to reduce the gap between the authorized return and you realize return. So it helps to mitigate regulatory lag. It gives us a better opportunity to get to approximate, to get closer to earning our authorized return.
The way I described it is in the first year filing a rate case it's $0.03 to $0.04. We are in the first year following rate case, it's fair to think of it that way. In the second full year following a rate case, it's roughly $0.10. So it was a stand-alone item without consideration issuing anything else. That's how to think about the impact in terms of reducing regulatory lag that would otherwise occur.
Durgesh Chopra:
And the jump from $0.04 to $0.10, I'm sorry, this is not a great question, but that's just basically capital doubling, right, like your asset base doubling between the two.
David Campbell:
Yes, it's a lot of like how it works in Missouri. I mean slightly different provision. It's a 90% deferral versus 85%. But for example, if you look at our realized returns in Kansas Central in '21 to '22 to '23, you saw those realized returns got lower and lower, much lower than an authorized level because we were in a 5-year stay out. So the regulatory lag impacts as we continue to invest in our system got higher and higher. So that's why you see the -- further you go out from a rate case the bigger the impact.
Now if you have a more regular cadence of rate cases, you'll eliminate that, right? So we don't -- we're not in a 5-year stay out and as we described, while won't be true in every jurisdiction. But general case, we expected every other year for rate case.
Durgesh Chopra:
I understand it now. And then just quickly, can I ask you for your level of confidence in the retail sales. It was flat last year, '23 over '22. And then first quarter came in at 0.5% below the first quarter of '24 and obviously, you're projecting 2% to 3% end of the year? And what gives you that level of confidence? I know you mentioned a certain significant amount of load coming online, but just maybe share a little bit more color there.
David Campbell:
Sure. I'll start and ask Kirk to wane. I think last year, if you break down the demand trends, residential and commercial were up 23.8% and 1%, respectively. I mean it was industrial that was down other industrial margins tend to be lower, as you know, and we can really trace the industrial demand being down to 2023 to a few customers that had unique circumstances.
So I think it is the basis for why we have the underlying confidence that we -- the robustness of the residential commercial sector last year and understanding the industrial trends at kind of the customer-by-customer level. And Kirk talked about that at length of the first quarter. We won't overreact too much to the first quarter. There was still some pretty strong trajectory on the residential side. It was a very mild quarter. So we'll be tracking how to go through the year. Now in terms of the large new customers coming online, there can always be timing issues otherwise. But if you drive out to DeSoto, Kansas, you will see a very, very large battery manufacturing plant facility well underway in terms of construction. So we feel good about that. The Meta data center is under construction. Google is down the road, so it's got to run a further shop. But we feel good about the overall growth trajectory. Kirk, you agree with that?
Kirkland Andrews:
I agree. I mean our residential and commercial growth assumptions are roughly consistent with what we saw in the actuals in 2023. It's really just buoyed by that expectation of industrial recovery, both sort of cycling through some of those temporary events that I talked about before and then supplemented by some of those you talked about the new economic development customers coming on later this year on the industrial side. So, I agree with that.
Operator:
Our next question is from Travis Miller of Morningstar, Inc.
Travis Miller:
Congrats on getting all the stuff done there in Kansas. Wondering as a follow-on to that, what are you still working on? Is there a timeline? And what might be involved in getting more done in Kansas.
David Campbell:
Our work is never done. No, just -- we certainly are working with our stakeholders on a series of issues in both states, really just looking for I think the most important thing is how do we respond to the economic development opportunities that are before us and ensure the best frameworks are in place to take advantage of those. So the discussion in Kansas, look, we HB 2527, I can't upsize enough that it's not only important in terms of provisions reducing lag, but also important as a reflection of the broad-based consensus and support for investments to take advantage of economic development opportunities and having a constructive framework for those investments.
Ongoing things that we'll look at. We'll continue to be -- we plan to have a workshop later this year on capital structure and ROE. We agreed with the parties that wouldn't be included in the legislative effort this spring, where we would talk about in a workshop this fall. So ensuring that Kansas has a competitive framework for kind of authorized returns, we think, continues to be important. As I mentioned, our rate base growth is significantly lower than our peer jurisdictions, and we hear a lot from investors about the relative competitiveness of returns offered in various states. So we look forward to that dialogue in Kansas. On the Missouri side, as I mentioned, there's been a broad-based support for legislation relating to natural gas plants because we and other utilities in the Missouri side are planning to build gas. It's really going to be needed for reliability in -- serve incremental load. So enhancing the provisions that are applicable to new dispatchable generation will be an important step to take over time in Missouri. But we've had a constructive dialogue with stakeholders in both states, really pleased with that constructive dialogue and we look forward to working with our regulators, legislators staff and other CURB and other intervenors, OPC in Missouri to move forward.
Travis Miller:
That work step would be in the legislative sessions or regulatory?
David Campbell:
Regulatory -- and we expect to have that later this year, admin schedule, but we're alignment parties, and we'll work with parties to find the right time to do it. I would expect it later this year, later this summer or fall.
Travis Miller:
And then a higher level on the EPS growth. You've described obviously a lot of positive things going on. Your growth rate is at or higher than other utilities. You got the CapEx, which you've suggested might be higher. In the third quarter, what pushes you at least to a 5% to 7% number, maybe not back to the 6% to 8%, but why not get to that 5% to 7% or perhaps should we anticipate that when you come out with a new CapEx plan?
David Campbell:
As I said earlier, we won't get ahead of the CapEx plan. We certainly won't get ahead of any earnings forecast. I think that when you look at our financial plan overall, we have the lowest rate base growth. And as a consequence of that, we have a relatively lower earnings growth trajectory. Those 2 are generally in sync, the rate base growth and the earnings growth targets, typically the earnings growth target lags some level, was a little lower than the rate base growth target because of the drag from finance.
So for us, what we're looking at fundamentally is how do we invest at the right level to ensure that we can take advantage of economic development opportunities, ensure reliability, make sure our system doesn't fall behind others. And in terms of performance, resilience, reliability and ability to meet new customer demand. I think that will lead to higher levels of investment, and we'll see where it goes from there. But we certainly -- we start from the position of affordability, reliability, sustainability, how do we make sure that we are competitive and taking advantage of these great demand growth opportunities. I do think that will lead to more capital investment because I think that's going to be to the benefit of all of our customers and our strategic objectives. And we'll discuss over time what that means for the earnings trajectory. But we really start with the affordability of reliable sustainability, what is the capital investment plan that will best enable us to advance it.
Travis Miller:
I figured you want to answer my question by saying, yes, 5 to 7. So appreciate the details. Thanks so much.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Paul Patterson of Glenrock Associates.
Paul Patterson:
Just wanted to go over just a few quick things on the quarter. First of all, the decrease in labor capitalization. Can you elaborate a little bit more on what's driving that and how that's going to impact the rest of the year?
Kirkland Andrews:
It's Kirk. The decrease in labor capitalization is really a function, but we had a little bit of a change in our transformer labor capitalization approaches in the first quarter. There's a little bit of a catch-up there. So now what you're seeing is just the ongoing effects of that as we move forward.
David Campbell:
Paul, you get the product for both in-depth reading and materials.
Paul Patterson:
But what -- how much was that I guess?
Kirkland Andrews:
We'll have to -- I have to get back to you offline on that. Paul will be happy to do that.
Paul Patterson:
No problem. Then the sales growth numbers for the quarter, does that reflect leap year?
Kirkland Andrews:
Yes, it does.
Paul Patterson:
And then the PISA legislation, it sounds like you guys in Missouri, I'm talking about. It sounds like you don't see much opportunity for the House Bill. I think there's also a Senate Bill. I mean I know it's going to end soon, but is that -- is that pretty much how you feel? Does I hear you right, I guess?
David Campbell:
I think, Paul, yes, you heard me right. We've had the PISA provisions, PISA language and changes to PISA relating to natural gas investments to 90% and extending the date past of the house. There's very good discussion around it. There's broad-based support. It's just hard -- given the tight time line in the session, overall session dynamics. It's going to be hard to get anything past. So we think this is no different. Wouldn't rule it out, we certainly think it will be beneficial, but the session dynamics is the time line on the real constraint, not support for the provisions. We think it's broad-based support.
Kirkland Andrews:
Sorry, Paul, that transformer labor just to come back to you is about $0.02 year-over-year.
Paul Patterson:
Then just on Missouri, if I'm correct, if you -- if it ends -- the session ends, the floor action ends tomorrow, is that right?
David Campbell:
The 17th, I think, is when it formally ends. Paul?
Paul Patterson:
But I thought there was a floor action deadline or something. Okay. But okay, the 17th, okay. Okay.
I appreciate that. And then finally, you mentioned that your next IRP will reflect the impact of the EPA rules. Do you think that -- how do you think about depreciation with these EPA rules? And when -- I mean you mentioned litigation and the uncertainty that's associated with it. How should we think about depreciation potentially changing with certain assets given these EPA rules. And when that when you guys might have to deal with that regulatory or not? I mean just how are you sort of big picture, how are you thinking about the issue of asset life depreciation and these rules and how those would sort of figure out. How this would sort of pencil out if you follow me?
David Campbell:
Well, Paul, it's a great question and one that is going to take a lot of work on our part and a lot of work with our stakeholders because the affordability and reliability impacts of the rules are ones that were really all have to dig into. And there are some provisions in the rules that give some potential outs on those, relatively short term in nature. But to your point, we'll have to assess carbon capture and sequestration is required for any unit that's operating beyond 2038 but does that apply if that technology is not commercially proven today.
I do not want to get ahead and analysis we're going to do in any discussions we have with our regulators around it. That provision, in particular, is around carbon capture and storage, there is no doubt going to be to focus a lot of discussion by a lot of parties, but the affordability and reliability impacts are certainly to the forefront and any change in depreciation schedules -- along with any incremental investments that might be required would have impacts on the affordability side. So under the provisions of the rule, you can look at our RFP and it would imply absent CCUS, It's going to have some impacts in the out years. But we've got some time to analyze. I've got some time to work through with parties, but you're noting an important issue is that these rules are consequential and the affordability and reliability impacts are real and significant, and we'll be analyzing them over time. And we'll do that on a systematic basis because something that's important we won't rush into and we'll absolutely be working with our regulators and stakeholders in Kansas, Missouri as we do that analysis. And we'll be tracking the litigation closely.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Ryan Levine of Citi.
Ryan Levine:
On the one slide, you highlight over $10 billion worth of new development projects in Kansas and Missouri. But you provide a little bit of color around what industries are most represented in that $10 billion number in which service territories is there waiting towards? And any color around the loan opportunities that, that may enable?
David Campbell:
Sure. So the -- it's -- you won't be surprised here. It's data centers, but also advanced in large manufacturing that can range from semiconductor, auto, food, products, food service industries are all pretty big presence in our space. So we, like others, we've got a pretty big presence in data centers already with Meta and Google, and there's a number of those are data centers, but there's also a lot of advanced manufacturing. And we're excited about all of them.
We have been quantified, but the exact megawatts, the $10 billion, obviously add up to a very material increase in potential load, but -- and it's across -- [indiscernible] , it's across all of our jurisdictions. There are a number of those parties that are interested in the Metro region and our Missouri West area. So Meta, for example, Missouri West, Googles and Metro and the Panasonic data plants in Kansas Central. So I think you'll continue to see a broad-based interest across those. I think I also left that aerospace. We've got a very large aerospace presence in the central part of Kansas, and that's also an area of high interest. So it's an exciting time, and we're glad with the big new customers will be able to land. It's been a mix of data centers and large manufacturing. I think we continue to see that kind of mix across those and are not exclusively data centers. I know there tend to be a lot of focus of the discussions recently, but we're big fans of advanced manufacturing coming in our territories too because they're bringing a lot of jobs and incremental benefits. Data centers are also big positive. They don't bring as much jobs, of course. But it's an exciting time in terms of the pipeline.
Ryan Levine:
As you're working through your resource planning and with the favorable legislation passed in Kansas, are there any nonfinancial constraints to be able to serve incremental load in your service territories, i.e., particularly on the gas generation side that we should keep in mind that may constrain your growth?
David Campbell:
I mean, I think for all of us, all utilities and for us, when you look as far as our system, adding the 3 customers I mentioned today, we said approximately 750 megawatts of load. That's a nearly -- between a 5% or 10% increase in our overall demand peak. So you add several hundred megawatts in a location, you're going to run into where the valuation is on transmission and distribution infrastructure. So what do you have adequate transmission, you've adequate substation infrastructure in place. And with Southwest Power Pool requirements getting tighter, there's certainly capacity issues as well.
So it's -- when we're looking at sites and sites that are opportunities for our customers, a lot of them -- we're being responsive to where they're interested, but to the extent they're flexible, then it's all about how do you work through the grid constraints, so transmission, distribution and then capacity constraints. So it absolutely is factored into our overall resource planning. That's part of why you see more resources in our plan. Some of that is higher requirements in the Southwest Power Pool, but some of that is a reflection of higher demand. So there are grid constraints and capacity constraints you need to work through and it's an opportunity. I think we're not unique in that. I think it's a general phenomenon across the U.S. We're seeing a higher level of demand than we've seen in decades.
Ryan Levine:
What I was trying to get at is if you're building new gas plants, are there any pipeline constraints or anything else that [indiscernible] more onerous to overcome or permitting or any other challenges that we should keep in mind?
David Campbell:
Yes. I think that the -- I think the EPA rules are structured. The new efficient gas turbines can meet the requirements, so there will be capacity factor rotations. Our team's evaluation of new gas sites that we've not announced where the new gas sites are certainly taking into consideration existing gas and grid infrastructure. So we think we'll be able to work through those. There's always a permitting an interconnection process. So it takes years to get these things done, and that's a reflection of why the big gas plants are appearing in the years. They appear that really reflects the lead time that we expect to be required to work through all those various issues. But we do think we'll be able to get it done.
Operator:
Our final question comes from Michael Sullivan of Wolfe.
Michael Sullivan:
Just wanted to ask on the mild weather to start the year and how you're thinking about levers to offset that?
David Campbell:
So it's welcome to 2024, same as 2023 because we had a mild start to 2023 as well. Like we look across various levels of our business, but the important part of that, obviously, is cost management. We mentioned that the new legislation in Kansas in the first year following rate case provides a benefit. So obviously, we're in the first year following a rate case. So we've got a relatively large enterprise. We got a range of levers that we typically work through. It's -- it's not -- the first quarter is not our biggest quarter. So we'll be watching to see how second and third quarter go in particular.
But I put it -- I view it as that's sort of in the routine category things to manage. So we always prefer to be normal weather, but we've got some levers that we can work on and some positives that we've seen also already manifested.
Michael Sullivan:
And then when I just think about this upcoming CapEx refresh. I think you usually do that for 5 years and the IRP is kind of more like a 10-plus year outlook. If I just -- I know you're talking about capacity upside over 10 years. But if I just look at like the next 5 plan over plan, I think we're in a similar spot, a different mix of generation, but just wanted to try to reconcile that as we think about CapEx plan refresh and what changed in this IRP.
David Campbell:
It's a good question, Mike. You'll see that we've also got some incremental. If you look at -- I anticipate our CapEx refresh will be through '28. We probably won't introduce '29 until February, but Kirk and the planning team may decide that they -- I'll leave it to them and where we approach that. Because we've got a lot of gas that's coming in the '28 to '30 time frame, that will lead to some earlier spend. A lot of renewable spend, you can time a little more closely to when the online date is, but the gas plants will have an earlier spend trajectory.
Part of why we're really very pleased with the construction work in progress provisions in the legislation in HB 2527. So between that, between the evaluation that we're doing relating to economic development between other grid modernization efforts we're going to look at, there are some factors that we think create an upward bias in the capital plan. But again, we'll lay those all out when we get to the third quarter. But the IRP, just looking at a stand-alone basis, if you think about the amount of gas that we'll be bringing on in '29 and '30, we do expect it will be the IRP in and of itself will also -- there will be incremental investments, really reflecting the demand growth that we're that we've seen in the generation we're adding to Meta.
Operator:
This now concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn it back to David Campbell for closing remarks.
David Campbell:
Thank you, Brie, and thank you, everyone, for your interest in Evergy. Be safe and have a great day. This now concludes our call.
Operator:
Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Thank you for standing by and welcome to the Q4 2023 Evergy, Inc. Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today’s call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Peter Flynn, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Peter Flynn:
Thank you, Valerie and good morning everyone. Welcome to Evergy’s fourth quarter 2023 earnings conference call. Our webcast slides and supplemental financial information are available on our Investor Relations website at investors.evergy.com. Today’s discussion will include forward-looking information. Slide 2 and the disclosures in our SEC filings contain a list of some of the factors that could cause future results to differ materially from our expectations. They also include additional information on our non-GAAP financial measures. Joining us on today’s call are David Campbell, President and Chief Executive Officer and Kirk Andrews, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. David will cover 2023 highlights, discuss the economic development outlook and provide an update on our regulatory and legislative agendas. Kirk will cover fourth quarter and full year results, retail sales trends and our financial outlook for 2024. Other members of management are with us and will be available during the Q&A portion of the call. I’ll now turn the call over to David.
David Campbell:
Thanks, Pete and good morning everyone. Before we begin, we’d like to extend our deepest sympathies to the family of Lisa Lopez-Galvan and all those who were impacted by the tragic events during the Chief Super Bowl parade, Kansas City and Chiefs Kingdom are grieving, but if there is one thing that I’ve learned during my time here, it’s that both are very strong and very resilient. Moving to Slide 5, I’ll open by describing the drivers for our fourth quarter earnings falling below our guidance. While we plan for normal weather, we know the importance of consistent financial execution we are disappointed by these results. As you know, on the third quarter call, we narrowed our guidance range to $3.55 per share to $3.65 per share from our initial range of $3.55 to $3.75, due primarily to the timing of the Persimmon Creek wind farm shifting back a year. As shown on Slide 5, results for the year were $3.54 per share. Weather at the end of the year was the driver of the shortfall. For both November and December and December in particular, with a 23% decrease in heating degree days relative to last year, weather was warmer than normal, resulting in a variance of $0.06 in these 2 months alone. As Kirk will describe, weather-adjusted demand was also soft in the fourth quarter relative to expectations, but we were able to offset those impacts leaving milder-than-normal weather as a driver. Our full year results reflect strong cost management with savings well beyond what was in our financial plan, which enabled us to offset the negative drag created by higher interest rates and lower than expected industrial load. In 2023, we reduced our O&M expenses by $129 million, equal to a year-over-year reduction of 12%. These efficiency gains reflect the hard work of the entire Evergy team who worked tirelessly throughout the year to advance our plan and our strategic objectives. In 2023, we also executed on our capital investment plan to improve reliability and resiliency, investing $2.3 billion in infrastructure to modernize our grid, replace aging equipment and advance our sustainability and affordability goals with the addition of the low cost Persimmon Creek wind farm. In early December, we completed a $1.4 billion convertible note financing to mitigate interest rate and refinancing risk at the holding company. Of note, this financing was contemplated in and supportive of our updated growth outlook that we announced on our third quarter earnings call. Last year, we made strong progress on reliability as well as is shown on Page 6. Relative to 2022, average outage duration and frequency as measured by SAIDI and SAIFI improved by 10% and 9% respectively. I’d like to commend the outstanding work from our distribution and transmission teams and keeping the lights on for our customers and communities, as the reliability gains reflect improvements to our outage management processes and the impact of our ongoing grid investments. Slide 6 also highlights the nearly 30% reduction in total costs that we have achieved since 2018. These cost savings involved a comprehensive multiyear program that touched every aspect of our business. Change is hard and involves tough decisions and efficiency gains of this magnitude necessarily involved major changes across Evergy over the past 5 years. The result of this hard work was affordability gains that we delivered to our customers. I am proud and honored to lead the Evergy team that made this happen. On Slide 7, we introduced our 2024 GAAP and adjusted EPS guidance of $3.73 per share to $3.93 per share. The midpoint represents a 5% increase over the original $3.65 midpoint of our 2023 baseline year. We remain confident in our ability to deliver annual 4% to 6% adjusted EPS growth through 2026 and we are reaffirming that target today. Evergy’s cost savings were the major enabler of the improvements in regional rate competitiveness that are shown on Slide 8. When factoring in the 2023 rate case settlements, Evergy has been able to limit cumulative rate increases in both Kansas and Missouri to 1% since 2017. That compares to an average increase in rates across our region of more than 11% and cumulative inflation of nearly 23%. Without question, the merger has delivered affordability gains and significant benefits to our customers and the communities we serve. On Slide 9, we highlight the outlook for economic development and demand growth in Kansas and Missouri, which is robust as it has been in decades. Our focus on affordability and regional rate competitiveness is an important contributor to this large pipeline and provides a foundation for our ongoing support of the tremendous opportunity in our states. There are currently $12 million of active development projects evaluating our service territories, representing 1.3 gigawatts of potential additional demand. The largest additions announced under construction so far are the Panasonic electric vehicle battery manufacturing plant in Kansas and the Meta data center in Missouri. The Panasonic plant for its construction is already well underway is expected to be the largest EV battery plant in the world. As I will describe further for these successes to continue, the grid will require competitive access to capital and significant investment. In turn, ongoing successes will drive economic growth, which benefits all of our customers and helps to cover the fixed cost of our system more efficiently. Based on Panasonic, Meta and projects announced to-date we expect 2% to 3% weather-normalized annual demand growth through 2026, off of the 2023 base, above our traditional base planning assumption of 0.5% to 1% annually. This includes incremental load from Panasonic and Meta starting in 2024 and continue to expand to an expected full run-rate in 2026. Slide 10 lays out our updated capital expenditure forecast, which has been extended through 2028. Our latest 5-year investment plan totals approximately $12.5 billion, which represents a nearly $900 million increase relative to our prior 5-year forecast through 2027. The program is expected to result in 6% annual rate base growth. The revised capital forecast incorporates the Integrated Resource Plan filed in June of last year, which reflect a balanced approach that enables fuel diversification and a responsible portfolio transition. Nearly 55% of our planned investment is targeted towards transmission and distribution projects as we continue to modernize our grid to improve reliability and enhance resiliency. By replacing aging equipment, investing in smart grid technologies will also enable further efficiency gains in serving our customers, which has been a hallmark of Evergy’s strategy since our formation in 2018. Moving to Slide 11, I’ll provide an update on our regulatory and legislative priorities in both Kansas and Missouri. As I discussed in our call last quarter, we have been working with stakeholders to position Kansas to take advantage of an unprecedented growth environment. Evergy is a key participant and we are doing our part to ensure that the state has affordable competitive rates. In Kansas alone, we have delivered over $360 million in operating efficiencies and customer bill credits. For this success to continue, the state’s infrastructure will require significant capital investment to ensure sufficient capacity, competitive levels of reliability and resiliency and a modern grid that delivers the flexibility and benefits to customers’ demand. In our discussions with stakeholders in the past few months, we have emphasized that attracting the necessary investment cannot be done without a regulatory environment that enables the flow of competitively priced capital. Investors have a choice where they direct capital. And for Evergy in Kansas to compete, investors require debt and equity returns commensurate with current market conditions and competitive with peers, a clear and stable framework around regulatory capital structure to guide how we capitalize our utilities, an opportunity to earn the returns we are authorized and timely recovery invested capital, both now and in the future. Without these elements, our investment proposition loses attractiveness relative to our peer utilities who benefit from more robust capital programs, more attractive realized returns, and more predictable and stable regulatory mechanisms. An imbalanced investment proposition challenges our ability to have the infrastructure in place to compete for economic development and by extension, challenges the shared goal of Kansas stakeholders to attract new businesses and their jobs and investment. The best way to ensure competitive rates over the long term is economic growth. To further that goal, Evergy and a coalition of economic development organizations, business interests and customers, introduced House Bill 2527 in Kansas earlier this year. The bill incorporated multiple elements to establish a fair and competitive framework for electric infrastructure investment, including provisions allowing for the use of plant-in-service accounting, or PISA, construction work in progress for large power plant investments, and enhanced large customer economic development rates among other features. Discussions relating to HB 2527 are ongoing, and we are working with parties toward achieving a constructive compromise that supports our shared goal of advancing economic development and growth in Kansas. We would like to thank the legislative leaders involved in these discussions, Kansas Corporation Commission staff, representatives from CURB, industrial stakeholders, the Governor’s office, and many other stakeholders for their participation and engagement. I know that many of our investors and analysts follow the legislative proceedings closely. So please stay on the lookout as the process advances in the coming weeks. And of course, we will provide a further update on next quarter’s call. By May, we also expect to file our triennial integrated resource plan in both states. The planning process is well underway, and given the significant changes we factored into our 2023 IRP, including IRA tailwinds, updated construction costs and higher capacity requirements in the Southwest Power Pool, we anticipate a filing similar to last year’s, though with some adjustments to reflect ongoing changes in marketing conditions and economic development prospects. Pivoting to Missouri, we filed the Missouri West rate case on February 2. The procedural schedule was jointly filed by the parties earlier this week. Subject to approval of the schedule, we anticipate intervenor direct testimony in June followed by rebuttal testimony in August, a settlement conference in the second half of September, and potential hearings in late September and October. We look forward to working collaboratively with the Missouri Public Service Commission staff and our stakeholders to achieve a constructive outcome from Reserve West customers. An element of our rate request is our potential investment in the Dogwood Energy facility and operating combined cycle gas plant identified in our 2023 IRP. Last November, we entered into an agreement to purchase a 22% share of the plant or 143 megawatts of summer capacity and we subsequently filed a request for an operating CCM. Earlier this week, on February 26, a stipulation and agreement with no parties opposed was filed requesting that the Missouri Public Service Commission grant the operating CCM. Dogwood is a low cost generation resource with a solid operating history to support our Missouri West customers. The transaction is expected to close in the second quarter, subject to commission approval. On February 23, we closed a financing to securitize extraordinary costs from Winter Storm Uri being carried at Missouri West, providing $323 million in net proceeds. As a result, the costs incurred from the storm will be spent over 15 years to better manage the impact on customer bills. This was a lengthy process and we appreciate the hard work of our treasury team, PSC staff and other parties and getting it over the finish line. Bills have been proposed in Missouri House and Senate that would extend PISA to 2040 and modify a provision of the statute to cover new natural gas generation. House Bill 2541 passed out of committee and Senate Bill 1422 awaits further action. Similar to our efforts in Kansas, we’ll continue to engage with our Missouri stakeholders, regarding constructive mechanisms that support natural gas investments as these are important resources identified in our integrated resource plan. I’ll conclude my remarks with Slide 12, which highlights the core tenets of our strategy. Affordability, reliability and sustainability. Keeping rates affordable for our customers remains at the forefront. We advanced affordability in 2023 with our Kansas rate case settlement, maintaining the momentum of the past 5 years. We have saved more than $1 billion in operating costs since the merger, enabling Evergy to offset steep inflationary pressures, while at the same time, ramping up investment and reliability and helping to bolster economic development. We’re pleased by our progress in improving regional rate competitiveness and keeping our rate trajectory well below the rate of inflation. As our capital plan outlines, we continue to invest in grid modernization to ensure reliability and strong customer service, building on the momentum reflected in our significant improvements in SAIDI and SAIFI in 2023. Our overriding sustainability goal is to lead a responsible, cost-effective energy transition. In 2023, we added for Persimmon Creek, a low-cost emissions free resource to serve our Kansas Central customers. We remain committed to a long-term strategy to reduce CO2 emissions in a cost-effective and reliable manner. Our goal is to achieve net-zero emissions – carbon emissions by 2045, with an interim target of a 70% reduction both relative to 2005 baseline. Achieving our targets will no doubt be dependent on external factors such as new policies and regulations and the advancement of new technologies. Our mission is to empower a better future, and our vision is to lead their responsible energy transition in our region, always with an eye on affordability and reliability along with sustainability. I will now turn the call over to Kirk.
Kirk Andrews:
Thanks David and good morning, everyone. Turning to Slide 14, I’ll start with a review of our results for the fourth quarter. For the fourth quarter of 2023, Evergy delivered adjusted earnings of $61.1 million or $0.27 per share, and that’s compared to $68.6 million or $0.30 per share in the fourth quarter of 2022. As shown on the slide from left to right, the year-over-year decrease in fourth quarter earnings was driven by the following
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Nicholas Campanella from Barclays. Your line is open.
Nicholas Campanella:
Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks for all the details today.
David Campbell:
Hi, Nick.
Nicholas Campanella:
Good morning. Hey, so, I appreciate the update on Kansas. I guess you noted discussions are ongoing. Could you help just give us any kind of color on what that includes versus, I guess, the initial proposals? I’m just kind of thinking depreciation deferrals, equity layer ROE, just how to think about the components if you have any color? Thank you.
David Campbell:
So thanks, Nick, for the question. We won’t get ahead of the process in terms of describing the details that emphasize that we’re working hard with parties toward achieving a constructive compromise. And I really can’t thank the parties enough. This is hard work. It’s hard work on through the legislation we had several weeks. So that’s legislators, KCC staff, curb, industrial stakeholders, Governor’s office, others. So we’re working with those parties. And what I’ll describe is the – this is a very transparent process, as you know, so continue to watch developments in the legislative process that we’re able to reach a constructive compromise because there is a lot of shared alignment on the goals of economic development growth. Then you’ll see the next steps would involve going to the House Committee and from that to the full house and hopefully on to the Senate. So keep an eye on what’s going on in the legislative process. That’s the best way to get a sense for where the discussions are going and what they include. But again, we want to really thank the parties as we continue to work with.
Nicholas Campanella:
Absolutely. I appreciate that. And then I guess, just quickly on, I guess, the credit side, you’re at 15% of [indiscernible] debt. I think you’re targeting greater than 15%. So can you just help us understand where you are in this new plan, how you’re trending? And then I know you’ve reaffirmed no equity needs, I think, through ‘26. How do we think about any potential equity needs to be on that? Thanks.
Kirk Andrews:
Sure. Nick, it’s Kirk. So building on top of that roughly 15% pro forma, which includes adjusting for the impact of the successful securitization and obviously, the impact of new rates, which we know, moving into Kansas. If you look at some of the components as we move into 2024, for example, there are other items that are additive to numerator, for example, most notably, the ongoing impact with minimal – basically no lag from our transmission investment, so that increases numerator. So we expect a surplus over that threshold as we move into 2024. We expect to utilize that surplus as we move forward into 2025 and ‘26, augmented by continued robust generation of operating cash flow because as you know, we’re not a current taxpayer. So those two components continue to give us confidence that we can use that surplus that we’re plugging into ‘24 on those ratios to fund that capital investment program without that need for new equity. Beyond 2026, we haven’t actually said – at some point, we will pivot to equity needs. We want to do that prudently, and we want to do that on a measured pace, both from a standpoint of keeping a reasonable trajectory on EPS but also with equal importance maintaining those credit ratios, which obviously allow us to maintain those ratings, which is important from an affordability standpoint for our customers.
Nicholas Campanella:
Alright. Appreciate it, thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Michael Sullivan of Wolfe. Your line is open.
Michael Sullivan:
Hey, good morning. Thanks for the update.
David Campbell:
Good morning.
Michael Sullivan:
Hi, David. I wanted to ask just on the CapEx update and we kind of break it out by jurisdiction and how much thought you gave to potentially shifting amongst your jurisdictions based on some of the outcomes that we got? It looks like Kansas Central was still up, I think plan-over-plan. Yes. Just how do you think about that in light of the outcome you got last year? I know a bunch of your peers have maybe taken more aggressive approaches in terms of shifting between jurisdictions based on outcomes.
David Campbell:
Yes. Mike, I think it’s a good question. I think that we – and as you have seen, a lot of our peer utilities, there are pace of rate base investment was already higher than ours in terms of their annual rate base growth, and many of them have increased them significantly recently. So, the gap has widened. So, if you look at our – break it down by jurisdiction, you look at Kansas Central and Kansas Metro, the biggest source of increases in generation, particularly in the out years, and that relates to a need for new dispatchable generation resources. If you look at the earlier years in the categories of kind of traditional T&D grid and other categories, there is a modest decline. I mean that’s in the context of an inflationary environment for equipment and otherwise. So, we are making the investments we need to, to ensure reliability and serve the new customers that are identified, but we do believe, and this is a discussion we have had with stakeholders that to really take advantage of the opportunities in Kansas. There is an intersection with the regulatory mechanisms that are in place. So, when you drill down to it, you will see that, that the modest upticks in Kansas are really driven by the need for the new generation in the out years, particularly new dispatchable generation.
Michael Sullivan:
Okay. And kind of just along that, how influence can these plants be to the outcomes you get in the legislative session this year? Could we see further shifting to the extent that you do or don’t have success?
David Campbell:
Mike, I think that’s a great question. If we – part of the dialogue with our stakeholders in Kansas is around the need for incremental investment, if we are able to reach a constructive comprise that reflects shared belief in the infrastructure investment needed, that’s really what’s underlying the push here. I do think you will see us evaluate our capital plan for incremental opportunities and pursue those. Now, we will do that in a systematic process, of course, and make sure that, that’s a process where there is full transparency to both our – of course, our stakeholders in Kansas and the market. But I think you will see that these factors do go hand in hand underlying reflection of support for that kind of infrastructure investment will be matched by an increase in that kind of investment, which we think will be really beneficial as Kansas pursues the growth and development opportunities.
Michael Sullivan:
Okay. Great. And then my last one, just on the Missouri West case, it looks like you got a settlement on the Dogwood plan. Beyond that, any particular areas where you are expecting the most pushback?
David Campbell:
No, it’s – Mike, it’s a pretty straightforward rate case. It’s largely we had a rate case 2 years ago. So, our ‘22 and ‘23 rate cases were after long stay outs, first since the merger. So, this one is a little more straightforward in that regard. So, the biggest elements I think you would see it reflected in the charts we have been posted on there are incorporating capital additions and incorporating the impacts of higher cost of capital environment. There is some transmission expense related to a generation plant that’s part of it, that’s relatively modest. But for the most part, it’s a pretty straightforward rate case. A lot of the complicated issues that I know we discussed at length with you going in the last one, thankfully resolved in that one. So, it’s generally a pretty straightforward rate case centered on the investments we have made since then and the authorized returns related to it.
Michael Sullivan:
Good to hear. Thank you.
David Campbell:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Paul Zimbardo of Bank of America. Your line is open.
Paul Zimbardo:
Hi. Good morning team. Thanks a lot.
David Campbell:
Good morning.
Paul Zimbardo:
I promise I will not ask about the legislation. The first one I have…
David Campbell:
Not even when I hear it.
Paul Zimbardo:
Just in terms of the base demand, kind of the new incremental load customers, the 2% to 3% versus the base of 50 basis points to 1%. Is there a good way to think about like an earnings sensitivity or just what the contribution of that is through the plan?
Kirk Andrews:
In terms of earnings sensitivity, I wouldn’t call it linear from that perspective. These are obviously large industrial customers, which come with rate incentives there. It is certainly additive from a tailwind perspective, but difficult to give you specifics beyond that because it literally has to do with, obviously, the individualized contract that those customers negotiate going forward. And it is a ramp-up period, right. At that 2% to 3% on top of that 0.5% to 1% really builds over time. We will start to see a modest contribution in ‘24, but it really kind of reaches its pace as we move into 2026.
David Campbell:
I would just echo Kirk’s comment, though, on – this is David, that these are industrial customers, which as you know, the profile of those are helpful, important for covering fixed costs, but generally less impact than equivalent load growth in commercial and residential.
Paul Zimbardo:
Okay. Yes. Understood. And then the second I had and not to get too technical, but I noticed there is a pretty big increase in CapEx for 2028 on the generation side. And you give year-end rate base in your guidance for 2028. Is there a large CWIP balance or just anything we should think of like i.e., could there be faster growth in that period with CWIP on top of rate base growth versus the 6%, if that makes sense?
Kirk Andrews:
That is certainly a possibility. I mean certainly, that’s natural gas plants aren’t a – you write a check at the end right before the COD. So, we are going to be building that, that informs capital investment over time. And that obviously entails a building balance in CWIP. Certainly, getting timely recovery on CWIP is one of our objective is as we look for kind of reforming the type of regulatory mechanisms that are designed to incent that. So, as we move forward on some of the legislations, which we won’t comment on, I think that will inform largely the impact on some of those elements, which are helpful, especially for large capital projects like that – like the natural gas plant sort of the back end of the plant.
David Campbell:
I think the 6% rate base growth is indicative of the overall capital plan and trajectory is what I described, and you can follow-up on some of the details. What I emphasize also is that we are pursuing a pretty balanced portfolio as you have seen. And actually, you have seen that from a number of our peer utilities as well with the growth that we are seeing. Adding new dispatchable resource is also an important part of the mix, and that generally has pretty wide support in our jurisdictions. And it’s an important part of the investment program. So, adding gas, while we are adding wind and adding solar, leading that responsible energy transition, but with the balanced portfolio is an important part of the mix. And I think we have got alignment with our stakeholders in our states around the importance of doing that.
Paul Zimbardo:
Thank you very much.
David Campbell:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Paul Fremont from Ladenburg Thalmann & Company. Your line is open.
Paul Fremont:
Thanks. It looks like you have got a lot of legislative and regulatory initiatives. Can you maybe just prioritize for us in your mind, which are the ones that are most important from your perspective?
David Campbell:
Sure. So, I think as probably reflected by the number of minutes devoted to the topic. Our legislative initiative in Kansas, really a broader effort to work with policymakers and stakeholders in Kansas to support electric infrastructure investment, to support economic development and growth. That I would list as our top priority. And there are other mechanisms. I mean we are talking with the same parties who we would work with in the regulatory front and other laws. So, I think the importance of having constructive dialogue, alignment around those shared objectives is key. But that’s our latest – I would characterize that as our number one legislated priority. We have some activities underway in Missouri as well, and those are important. They are also reflective of important priorities, but it’s fair to say that the prospects in the Missouri legislature this year in general for legislation are more challenged. And there – I think there is nearly the double-digit number of state legislators running for a statewide office, it’s an election year. So, the overall dynamics in Missouri are less likely to lead to legislation. But I would also say that there is maybe a lower priority there. Very constructive legislative actions taken in Missouri the last couple of years with the extension of pieces, some other changes to piece of the addition of the property tax rider. So, items [ph], our relative priorities on the Kansas side and the mechanisms that we have talked about there.
Paul Fremont:
Sort of second question, would a slower level rate of dividend increase sort of improve your ability to deliver on sort of the EPS growth target that you have?
Kirk Andrews:
I would say marginally from that standpoint. Obviously, we had a little a little of a lower increase, obviously, commensurate with our change in the growth rate, but it’s very important for us to have a good blend of obviously capital appreciation and current returns. So, we want to be mindful of that delivering the right mix for our investors. As we pivot to maybe potentially a little bit lower or commensurate with our growth rate, the reduction in the dividend, really, I would say, sort of contributes to our ability relative to higher levels of dividend growth to fund that capital expenditures, right. It helps us maintain those all-important credit ratios that I talked about before.
David Campbell:
And just to clarify, Kirk was referring to a reduction in the rate of dividend growth, not a reduction in there. So, we had a 5%, we raised our dividend growth 5% last quarter, consistent with the midpoint of our earnings growth rate range. I think you raised a good question, just stepping back around the mix of what’s your dividend payout ratio as you think about the overall funding for your capital plan. We have described that we don’t see a need to issue equity through 2026. So, I think that in particular, becomes a factor that our peer companies are issuing equity seek to balance and what’s the right payout ratio or otherwise. We described the target payout ratio of 60% to 70%. That remains our payout ratio, but being thoughtful about our – the growth rate in our dividend as our earnings grow and keeping those in tandem and thinking about that payout range is probably how we are considering.
Paul Fremont:
And then last question for me. It sounds like you could still raise capital spending levels without issuing equity. Is there sort of a limit to that increase where – or what would be the threshold where you would have to issue to issue equity?
David Campbell:
So, we won’t give the exact number on. Obviously, those things go in tandem. You can’t – if we raised our capital plan, a very significant amount you have to think about the funding approach to that. And the governor is really what Kirk described earlier. We look at our credit ratios and maintaining the ratios we look at in the Moody’s threshold. So, as we consider changes to our capital plan, there is always room in that capital plan and just a matter of how significant the changes would be. But in general, we described with the capital plan we have, even with the changes we have implemented that were reaffirmed that we don’t expect the issue equity through 2026. We made major changes in the capital plan. We would be looking at the funding approach at the same time.
Paul Fremont:
Okay. And then I guess if you were to sort of go to incremental levels what percent of would you see as being funded with equity?
David Campbell:
Well, again, I would describe, we don’t see in our capital plan and need to issue equity through 2026. So, I think you are probably getting ahead of the aim a little bit with that question. I think what we would – it relates to the question of it’s not formulaic, but the discussions we are having in Kansas particular about how do we fund electric infrastructure investment to support economic development and growth. A lot of that comes down to T&D investment and having that in place and where you put that and how you put that in place. So, it will be much more tackle around the timing and the positioning of where we make some of those investments to support the growth. So, it’s not equivalent to adding a huge new solar farm or big new gas plant where you got orders of magnitude that drive the kind of changes you may be discussing. So, we will look at that on an integrated basis, but we are pretty thoughtful about how we approach our financing plan and how we think about the timetable for when we issue equity. So, I think your question is signaling some kind of major change. I wouldn’t think about it that way. I would really think about how we are going to be funding and where we are getting the opportunities to fund this, particularly T&D and some good work to support economic development and growth in Kansas. That’s what we are working towards with our stakeholders.
Paul Fremont:
Great. Thank you very much.
David Campbell:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Paul Patterson of Glenrock Associates. Your line is open.
Paul Patterson:
Good morning. How are you?
David Campbell:
Good morning Paul.
Paul Patterson:
Very – just one sort of quick sort of follow-up question from dollars [ph] on the Slide 9, just as opposed to the earnings impact associated with these industrial customers, you have mentioned that there is an impact from spending more fixed cost over greater megawatt hours I guess. Could you give us a flavor as to what that is? I mean if you don’t have it, that’s cool. But I am just wondering where is kind of the rate impact of these industrial development initiatives I guess?
David Campbell:
I will say on what rates negotiated of course, very large loads get special contracts. I think the best way to describe it, we actually have a waterfall that goes through 2023 to 2024, so we show what the overall impact of weather and demand is in that. So, it’s part of the improvement that we see in the trajectory from ‘23 to ‘24. But in general, the industrial load, while it does help and drives incremental cost savings and opportunities, it doesn’t have the same level of impact as residential and commercial because of the rate structure. But to get a good flavor of how that translates because we give the growth rate estimate and the impact on EPS and that, I think it’s a waterfall slide in the back half of the document. So, we can walk through that with you offline just to see how that translates. But it’s a – any savings that are generated, of course, through rate cases are going to be shared. So, if you – one of the best thing as I described in my note, the best way to keep rates affordable through growth. And that affordability gain in the near-term, it can have some EPS impact. But we are going to have a regular cadence of rate cases now. That’s the great benefit of it is that’s what’s going to keep rates affordable for our customers, of course, that gets shared.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. Thanks so much.
David Campbell:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And that’s our time for the Q&A today. I would like to turn the call back over to David Campbell for any closing remarks.
David Campbell:
Thank you, Valerie and thanks everyone for your interest and time this morning. That concludes the call today. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today’s conference. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.
Operator:
Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Third Quarter 2023 Evergy Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Peter Flynn. Please go ahead.
Peter Flynn:
Thank you, Michelle, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Evergy's third quarter 2023 earnings conference call. Our webcast slides and supplemental financial information are available on our Investor Relations website. at investors.evergy.com. Today's discussion will include forward-looking information. Slide two and the disclosure in our SEC filings contain a list of some of the factors that could cause future results to differ materially from our expectations. They also include additional information on our non-GAAP financial measures. Joining us on today's call are David Campbell, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Kirk Andrews, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. David will cover our third quarter highlights, provide an update on our regulatory and legislative agenda and discuss updates to our financial outlook. Kirk will cover in more detail the third quarter and year-to-date results, retail sales trends and our long-term guidance. Other members of management are with us and will be available during the question-and-answer portion of the call. I will now turn the call over to David.
David Campbell:
Thanks, Pete, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin on Slide 5. I'm pleased to report that Evergy had a solid quarter as we delivered adjusted earnings of $1.88 per share compared to $2 per share a year ago. The decrease was driven by milder weather and higher depreciation and amortization and interest expense, partially offset by lower O&M expenses, higher corporate-owned life insurance proceeds or COLI and tax items. Results for the quarter were also impacted by over $9 million in excess O&M storm costs in July, driven by a mid-month storm, which brought straight-line wins of over 80 miles per hour over much of our service territory. Overall, I'm pleased to report that our reliability metrics held strong for the quarter. Relative to last year, average outage duration and frequency, measured by SAIDI and SAIFI, have improved greater than 5% through September and remained favorable relative to our targets. This is a strong testament to the work of our distribution and transmission teams to restore power and keep the lights on, as well as the investments that we have made in our system. With these results year-to-date, we are narrowing our 2023 adjusted EPS guidance range to $3.55 per share to $3.65 per share. While we've offset the excess storm costs and delivered O&M savings well beyond our initial guidance for the year, we have not been able to offset the full magnitude of headwinds elsewhere, most notably from higher interest expense and the shift of Persimmon Creek from Missouri to Kansas. Kirk will discuss these drivers and net onetime effects in more detail. Looking beyond 2023, we are establishing a new long-term adjusted EPS growth target of 4% to 6%, off of the midpoint of our original 2023 adjusted EPS guidance range of $3.65 per share. Since the completion of the Evergy merger in 2018, we've delivered solid earnings growth, driven in large part by a highly successful O&M reduction plan. This program has enabled us to deliver significant cost savings to our customer, while at the same time, increasing our pace of investment to modernize our grid and improve service to customers. Notwithstanding this progress, two factors, in particular, have negatively impacted our ability to meet the earnings growth target we previously laid out. First, challenging rate case outcomes. And second, a higher interest rate environment. Most significantly, the Kansas rate cases fell short of expectations. In the context of a challenging position taken by the Kansas Corporation Commission staff on our proposed revenue requirement as well as the level of attention focused on our first-rate case since the merger that created Evergy more than five years ago, we ultimately negotiated unanimous settlement that is currently pending approval by the commission. However, the Kansas rate case settlement negatively impacted our forward plan by approximately $0.15 a share. The dynamics in the rate case are a reflection of the singular focus that Kansas has had on improving regional rate competitiveness. And without question, Evergy has delivered against that objective. Going forward, we know that state policymakers and stakeholders are excited by an unprecedented economic development pipeline in Kansas. To help the state capitalize on this opportunity and enable beneficial investment, we have important work to do to ensure that Kansas offers a competitive cost of capital and the potential to earn a competitive return. I'll discuss that further in a moment. With respect to Missouri, the context is different. Following our successful motion for rehearing, the Missouri rate case outcomes in 2022 were more constructive with respect to the key economic terms. The main challenges in the rate case is related to legacy issues that have now been resolved and put behind us, most notably relating to the 2018 Sibley plant retirement. Higher interest rates are also dragging the forward plan. Most significantly, they impact the refinancing that will occur in 2024 and for $800 million of holding company debt. In addition, our plan includes some additional holding company debt by 2025 for which we are expecting to refinance our $500 million term loan. The revised long-term growth rate target of 4% to 6% extends through 2026 and reflects our trajectory after the wave step function cost savings that we have delivered since the 2018 merger. Over the long term, our growth rate will reflect our rate base growth and the related financing plan. Our current rate base growth level is expected to be 6% annually. In addition to the projects currently included in our capital plan, we see a significant backlog of additional projects that will benefit customers across the T&D system and in the ongoing transition of our generation fleet. However, in Kansas, in particular, we will shape our capital plan to reflect the policy objectives of our key decision-makers and stakeholders. We will be actively pursuing mechanisms that we think align with those objectives and that will enhance our ability to partner in support of state priorities and earn a competitive return with timely recovery. While our long-term target has changed, our culture will not, we remain laser-focused on operational and financial execution for the items within our control and achieving constructive regulatory outcomes and a more regular cadence of rate cases, after the long stay outs that were agreed to as part of the 2018 merger. In both of our states, we expect to file rate cases roughly every two years, similar to the cadence of our peer utilities. We know the importance of consistent execution, and we recognize that today's update falls short of that. However, we are confident in our ability to execute our strategic plan going forward at the revised target. In addition, we see opportunities to work with our stakeholders to advance constructive regulation in both states. As part of today's update, we also announced a 5% increase in our quarterly dividend to $64.25 per share or $2.57 per share on an annualized basis. This increase is consistent with our updated growth outlook as well as our 60% to 70% payout ratio target. Combination of our annual growth outlook and our dividend yield positions Evergy to deliver a competitive total annual return of 9% to 11%. Moving to Slide 6, as I mentioned, we reached unanimous settlement and the pending Kansas rate cases. If approved, the resulting rate increases are far below those regional peers in inflation. The settlement calls for a net revenue increase of $41.1 million across our Kansas jurisdictions, reflecting a $74 million increase at Kansas Central and a $32.9 million decrease at Kansas Metro. The settlement includes the addition of the Persimmon Creek wind farm and our 8% interest in Jeffrey Energy Center into Kansas Central's rate base. These additions provide low-cost generation solutions to meet our customers' growing demand and energy needs. The settlement also provides final resolution to the rate discounts that were provided to customers through the COLI program, which was first put in place nearly 40 years ago, when the Wolf Creek nuclear plant came online. The settlement sets a $96.5 million rate credit to be amortized over three years, after which the program is removed entirely from the regulatory construct. With this settlement, our COLI program has provided tremendous savings for customers, $750 million in total since the mid-1980s. While the settlement is silent on return on equity and capital structure, it specifies a 9.4% return on equity to be utilized for purposes of the transmission delivery charge filings required by legislation passed last year. We've included more details on this in the appendix. If this settlement is approved, we expect the Kansas Corporation Commission will issue an order, implementing new rates by December 21. As shown on Slide 7, when factoring in the rate case settlements, Evergy has been able to limit cumulative rate increases in Kansas to 1% since 2017. In contrast, rates increased in our regional peer states by 12.7% over the same time period. Many of our peer utilities have rate cases pending or planned, which will further widen the gap. Our rate increase is even further below the rate of inflation since the merger. Advancing and improving regional rate competitiveness has been top of mind for many of our stakeholders in Kansas and were primary drivers for the 2018 merger, and that's exactly what we've delivered. On Slide 8, we highlight the outlook for economic development in Kansas, which is as promising as it has been in decades. As the largest utility in Kansas, Evergy plays a vital role in enabling growth. Over the past five years, the state's economic development pipeline has grown to previously unseen levels. In 2022, the best year for economic development in Kansas in Evergy's history, we helped to land 13 major projects, representing more than $5.2 billion of capital investment, 6,000 new jobs with the Panasonic electric vehicle battery plant, a leading example. The future looks even brighter with more than $10 billion of active economic development projects, evaluating our Kansas service territories, representing 650 megawatts of potential additional demand. The state's recent track record and large economic development pipeline, in part reflect the success of our focus on ensuring affordability and regional rate competitiveness. Through a highly successful cost savings program following the merger, we have delivered over $360 million in operating efficiencies in customer bill credits in Kansas. I would like to thank the dedication and focus of the entire Evergy team in making this happen. It has taken a tremendous amount of sustained effort. At the same time, the team achieved record safety results last year, along with strong generation commercial fleet availability and ongoing reliability improvements in 2023. The results the team has achieved have directly supported and advanced stay priorities. For this success to continue, the grid will require significant capital investment to ensure sufficient capacity competitive levels of reliability and resiliency and a modern grid that delivers the flexibility and benefits that customers increasingly demand. This cannot be done without a regulatory environment that enables the flow of competitively priced capital in Kansas. Cost of capital parameters, regulatory capital structure and timely recovery investment are crucial importance when utility investors make capital allocation decisions. Investors have a choice where they direct capital and for Evergy in Kansas to compete for that capital, investors require debt and equity returns, commensurate with current market conditions and competitive with peers, a clear and stable framework around regulatory capital structure, to guide how we capitalize our utilities, an opportunity to earn the returns we are authorized and timely recovery of invested capital, both now and in the future. Without these elements, our investment proposition loses attractiveness relative to our peer utilities to benefit from more robust capital programs, more attractive authorized and realized returns as well as more predictable and balanced regulatory mechanisms. An imbalanced investment proposition challenges our ability to put the infrastructure in place to effectively partner and compete for economic development and by extension challenges the shared goal of Kansas stakeholders to attract new businesses and their jobs and investment. We see a bright future for Kansas, and we are honored by the privilege to play a key role in that future. To capitalize on the state's economic development potential, we believe that the focus must include constructive regulatory mechanisms for the investment necessary to enable that growth. This is a priority for Evergy, and going forward, we will work with regulators and policymakers to ensure that Kansas is competitive with peer states and seizes on the unprecedented opportunities that are before us. Moving to Slide 9, I'll provide an update on our regulatory and legislative priorities in both Kansas and Missouri. As I mentioned, we expect a final order on the settlement agreement filed in our Kansas rate cases by December 21. On September 1, the commission conditionally approved a settlement in our energy efficiency document, otherwise known as Kia. Kia was established to support the state's goal of promoting the implementation of cost-effective demand-side programs, such as home energy assessments and rebates for energy saving appliances. We expect the first key programs will begin in 2024. On the policy front, our efforts will focus on cost of capital and capital structure as well as recovery mechanisms supporting our grid and generation investments. One area of focus will be provisions applying to new dispatchable generation. Heading to Missouri, the commission order approving our request to securitize extraordinary costs from Winter Storm Uri was affirmed in the Missouri Court of Appeals in late September. The Missouri Office of Public Council of OPC, filed a motion for rehearing, which was denied on October 24. It is possible that OPC will further appeal to the Missouri Supreme Court. Consistent with the appellate court's decision, we believe the Missouri Commission's decision and support of securitization is well supported by the record, and we anticipate resolution by the end of the year. As a reminder, we will complete the securitization financing after the appeal plays out, but incremental carrying costs incurred prior to approval will ultimately be recovered when we issue the debt. Similar, our efforts in Kansas work to engage with our Missouri stakeholders regarding constructive regulatory mechanisms to support timely recovery in new dispatchable generation investments as these have been identified as important new resources, in our integrated resource plan. Last, we began the planning process for Missouri West rate case, which we expect to file in February 2024. I'll conclude my remarks with Slide 10, which highlights the core tenets of our strategy. affordability, reliability and sustainability. Keeping rates affordable for our customers has been and will continue to be at the forefront of our thinking. Nailed by the merger, Evergy has now saved more than $1 billion in operating costs over the past five years. These savings allow the company to offset steep inflationary pressures while also helping to attract and bolster economic development in our region. We're pleased by our progress in improving regional rate competitiveness and keeping our rate trajectory well below the rate of inflation. Affordability is and will always be an area of focus. Ensuring reliability is also a core element of our strategy, along with SAIDI, SAIFI, grid resiliency and public safety. This includes a focus on metrics relating to customer service, the commercial availability of our fleet, safety and all elements of our operations, including infrastructure investment. With respect to sustainability, we continue to advance the responsible transition of our generation fleet with investments such as the Persimmon Creek wind farm. We expect to add over three gigawatts of renewable resources through 2032 and 1.5 gigawatts of new hydrogen cable gas generation, advancing our decarbonization goals, ensuring day-to-day grid demands and customer needs are met. Our mission is to empower better future, and our vision is to lead the responsible energy transition in our region, always with an eye on affordability and reliability as well as sustainability. I will now turn the call over to Kirk.
Kirkland Andrews:
Thanks, David, and good morning, everyone. Turning to Slide 12, I'll start with a review of our results for the quarter. For the third quarter of 2023, Evergy delivered adjusted earnings of $432.3 million or $1.88 per share compared to $460.8 million or $2 per share in the third quarter of 2022. As shown on the slide from left to right, the year-over-year decrease in third quarter earnings was driven by the following
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question is going to come from the line of Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Hey, guys. Good morning. Can we just maybe unpack the components of the growth rate guide? Obviously, interest expense is a component of that. What are you now assuming there as we think about the 23%, 26% CAGR and that 5% midpoint? And overall, I guess, what are you assuming for lag or any of the remaining levers like O&M? Just trying to get a sense on how much contingencies you've built in there at this point?
David Campbell:
Shar, thanks for the question. So as we set the revised growth rate target, we did factor in -- our view of where the current macro conditions are. So certainly, the interest rate environment reflects the current forward curve, and it reflects the current regulatory mechanisms that are in place in our states. It reflects our current rate base outlook. And it reflects the O&M reduction plan that we previously described to investors. We're -- I'm very pleased with the work of all of our employees in accelerating some of those cost savings to offset some of the headwinds in 2023. But you'll recall that we've announced an ongoing O&M savings trajectory through 2025. I would characterize our actions this year is really an acceleration. And and where we're tracking, if not all the way to where we expect to be, we've gotten a long way towards it. So we basically holding to the prior O&M targets that we outlined separately. You'll see in our -- going back to our Investor Day, I think we teed up $960 million run rate O&M in 2025. Last year, it was more like $1.70 billion. Obviously, we reduced that significantly already year-to-date. So I would describe our go-forward plan is reflecting the disappointing results of the Kansas rate case the macro environment that we see and the headwinds on interest rates, but then the ongoing execution of our plants. So we're obviously disappointed in not having execution path that matched our prior targets but we feel good about the new plan that we've outlined. And obviously, as we emphasize, we do see opportunities to work with our regulators for ongoing changes to regulatory mechanisms that we think will be in support of the objectives of of our policymakers and stakeholders in our states.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Got it. And still no equity through '26, correct?
David Campbell:
Yes. I would describe it, Shar, that the -- in our current capital plan, we don't anticipate a need for equity through 2026. As Kirk described, we'll update our capital plan on the year-end call. While we see significant additional opportunities for beneficial investments, investments that will benefit our customers and our grid, we'll shape the capital plan based on to reflect the objectives of our policymakers. And if we stick with the current capital plan, we don't anticipate that we'd see equity into 2026. So if we change it, then obviously, we'll update the financing claim at the same time.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Got it. And then just last, I know you mentioned in your prepared in the slides that you are working with Kansas regulators and policymakers on mechanisms. Can you just unpack that a little more? What does that mean as it relates to capital flows, for instance, between the two jurisdictions in spend? Thanks, guys.
David Campbell:
Sure. So I described it at two levels, Shar. First on what it means in terms of what we're pursuing. So I do think that the -- there are several items coming out of the rate case that we've identified as priorities, and we think align with the opportunities that are in front of us in both Kansas and Missouri to support economic development. On that list include a clear and stable framework for capital structure. It is common for our peer utilities for utility holding companies to have responsible levels of holdco debt. We think that the dialogue through testimony and the Kansas rate case will give us the opportunity to advance that discussion, going forward. So capital structure is an important piece. The second piece is the opportunity to earn returns that are competitive with and commensurate with market conditions and competitive peers. And the third is around the time and recovery of capital. So those will be areas that we'll be focused on. Specific things we'll likely look at include -- we have plans to build natural gas generation for reliable hydrogen capable dispatchable generation in both states. So mechanisms to support that build-out will be an area of focus. And then on your question about allocation of capital, obviously, we will shape our capital plan always to meet the requirements of our jurisdictions for reliability and to meet our customer needs, but the incremental opportunities to invest, we think we'll benefit customers that will position us to capitalize on economic development opportunities. We'll shape that capital plan based on the mechanisms and policies that we see in the respective states.
Operator:
Thank you. And one moment as we move on to our next question. And our next question is going to come from the line of Nicholas Campanella with Barclays. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Nicholas Campanella:
Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I guess just to follow up on some of Shar's questions. Like I think as you kind of look at the glide path through 2026, it implies something linear. But just how should we think about 2024? Can you kind of grow within this 4% to 6% range into 2024 as we kind of handicap what your earnings would be there? And is this CAGR linear? Or is it more lumpy? Thank you.
David Campbell:
Exact. So obviously, we'll give our 2024 guidance on the year-end call. So we're not giving annual guidance at this time. But with the -- what we've described previously and with the mechanisms we have now, we don't we'll have the impact of the Kansas rate case, of course, impacting 2024. We mentioned that we're planning to file a rate case next year in Missouri West. That will be the rate case that we pursue that will impact rates in 2025. So you can expect in the cadence that I described roughly over two years more active regulatory calendar in calendar year 2025 and in fact 2026. So if the lumpier outcomes are often related to rate case outcomes in our -- we only have one of our jurisdictions going through a rate case next year. So we obviously know the importance of stable execution within the growth rate range, and we'll give more details on the 2024 guide in the year-end call.
Nicholas Campanella:
Okay. Great. And then I acknowledge that you're kind of taking down the growth rate today and you have had some headwinds in Kansas. The mechanisms obviously aren't as constructive to deploy capital. But on this new plan, can you still do 6% rate base growth like prior plans? Or is that subject to change as well? I'm just acknowledging the comments I think Kirk said there's been a little bit of an acceleration even in '23, and you continue to highlight a lot of economic development. Thank you.
David Campbell:
It's a good question. I do think that we -- our target growth rate range we described for rate base, we expect it will be in the 6% annual range. That is reflected in the capital plan that we published last year, and we always update that on the year-end call. It's part of a process we actually established in our jurisdictions following the merger. So we'll stick to that time line. We see significant incremental potential investment opportunities that we'll evaluate, but we will evaluate those in the context of what makes the most sense in terms of the policies and mechanisms that are in place in our states, and we'll allocate capital accordingly. So our -- we anticipate and we've shaped our plan to reflect that estimated rate base growth range. But whether we see -- I know a lot of our peer utilities have announcing incremental investment in capital. While we see a similar opportunity set, we're going to shape our capital plan based on the returns that we see. As of now, the mechanisms are a little more constructive in Missouri in terms of reducing regulatory lag, so helping you earn your realized return, but we're going to be working on in Kansas to see if their policy that reflect the objectives of our stakeholders as well as ours that we can move forward on that I think can help to inform the capital plan. So net, we'll evaluate the capital plan by year-end. We feel good about that 6% annual rate base growth with incremental opportunity is possible, but we'll be looking pretty hard at capital allocation in light of what we have heard and what we've seen in our jurisdictions around what they want to have and what they'd like for us to deliver for them.
Nicholas Campanella:
One more follow-up for me, just to triple check, this outlook basically assumed the settlement? And just if anything gets tweaked on December 20, how should we think about that?
David Campbell:
Well, we'll have to update you on the year-end call was the unanimous settlement. So you can never predict certainly, it's dependent on approval by the commission, but we're confident in the process, given the -- and the hearing around the settlement was involved in constructor dialogue. We're with the united settlements this plan does reflect an anticipation that it will be approved if it changes, and we'll obviously have to adjust accordingly if it does. But we think that the fact it was a unanimous settlement and is really delivering on the improvements of regional rate competitiveness that has been such a focus in Kansas, we think that it's on a good trajectory for approval.
Operator:
Thank you. And one moment as we move on to our next question. Our next question is going to come from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Dariusz Lozny:
Hey, guys. Good morning. This is Dariusz on for Julian. Thank you for taking the question. Maybe just starting with the updated EPS growth target. Can you comment a little bit about when you roll forward your capital plan in February, that will be out through '28 and then the EPS target is through '26. So there seems there's a little bit of a mismatch there. Can you comment on -- maybe do you have somewhat limited visibility into what it looks like beyond 2026 or perhaps why that to your gap there?
David Campbell:
You know, Darius. It's been our historical practice as well. We typically have a three-year forward outlook. I don't know if there's any magic to it. I think you can, you know, based on where we are today, our long-term growth rate target is 4% to 6%, but we've extended it through 26. But we certainly -- that's really just a matter of practice. We typically have that three-year outlook.
Dariusz Lozny:
Okay. Appreciate that. Next one is you made comments about advancing the discussion on some of the mechanisms in Kansas, including the capital structure. Just curious if you could maybe speak about that in a little bit more detail. what might be the venue perhaps for advancing that discussion prospectively? Would that be in a future rate case filing or perhaps another forum?
David Campbell:
Yeah, there are several different paths that we can go down on that. So it will be -- and especially once the rate case is approved, we'll get more visibility into it, but there's -- you can work that directly with regulators. You can work that with other stakeholders. What I really emphasize is that I think the rate case and the testimony that was included on the capital structure topic and there was luminous testimony on it, sets the stage for a good discussion, particularly if you look at [indiscernible] direct testimony in our rebuttal testimony, we've communicated the importance of competitive equity returns. We've communicated and have good evidence to show how it was common and almost universal for utility holding companies to have responsible levels of holdco leverage. And it's also common at the same time, have you have utility-only capital structures used in regulated rate making. So that's the dialogue that we're going to advance and a couple of different mechanisms that we'll evaluate as we as we advance that discussion. As I mentioned, we've got a rate case in Missouri West next year. We have a little time before our next planned Kansas rate case. There'll be a little bit of a dynamic in the final decisions around that. But that will give us some time to advance the dollar.
Dariusz Lozny:
Okay. Great. Thank you. And if I could sneak in one more just quickly. Your prior Missouri rate cycle, you filed both at metro and Missouri West. It seems like it's just Missouri West this time around. Any reason for changing that at this time?
David Campbell:
It was timely for Missouri West to file a rate case. So we're planning to do it for next year. We'll certainly -- for all of our jurisdictions, we'll look at the right cadence to do it. We had the long stay outs coming out of the merger. I don't think you're going to see those in the four-to-five-year stats, but it's timely for Missouri West rate case. So we're filing on next year and not currently -- not planned for Missouri Metro at this time for next year.
Operator:
Thank you. And one moment as we move on to our next question. And our next question will come from the line of Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Steven Fleishman:
Yeah, good morning. Thanks. So just on the I guess, first on the kind of interest rate impacts. So you're basically in the new plan, assuming kind of the current forward curves as they are?
Kirkland Andrews:
Yes, Steve, it's Kirk. That is correct. We have our expectations were ongoing entries expense to where the curves are today. That's right.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay. And you mentioned the Kansas rate case being kind of a $0.15 difference versus the prior plan? Is most of the other difference, just the interest rate move?
Kirkland Andrews:
Yes. In terms of the impact to the adjusted outlook on EPS and formed by that growth rate, that's right, yes.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay. Could you just talk to kind of how your credit metrics look in the new plan with the Kansas settlement FFO to debt metrics range?
Kirkland Andrews:
Sure, absolutely. I mean I think we came out of 2022, about 80 basis points above the threshold of Moody's, which FFO to debt, and we are managing that plan going forward to make sure that we are at or above those thresholds throughout the plan, and that means through 2026. And that objective obviously informed our comfort with extending our expectation as now based on the current capital plan of no new equity to release 2026. So we're focused on hiring to those thresholds and those targets.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay. And your threshold again is what is it again? Is it 14% or 15%?
Kirkland Andrews:
15%.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay. And just one more, I guess, sorry, on the capital plan. So I think you're going to update the capital plan on the year-end call, and you seem to be talking about maybe making updates by them. But like that's -- I mean that's pretty soon. Some of these processes in the state you're talking about, you wouldn't necessarily think would be kind of really started or done by the year-end call. Are these things that might get added like later on?
David Campbell:
Yes, Steve, that's a good question. I think it is -- we announced the updated long-term growth rate outlook, and that's informed by our current rate base growth trajectory. Obviously, we'll add 2028. We don't yet have that in the capital plan. So that will be new either way. But our anticipation is that there -- we will, in conjunction with the finance, when you look at the allocation of capital across jurisdictions will reflect the -- we had a revised integrated resource plan since we put out that capital plan at year-end. But the overall parameters and overall growth rate levels, I suspect you're right, that will be in line with what we're seeing here, but with some tweaks and without the evaluation of capital allocation. across different areas. When I was speaking to the additional incremental opportunities, you're on track. I think those opportunities will particularly be informed as we look at mechanisms and ability to realign with key policymakers and regulators on positioning the state to take advantage of some of the economic development opportunities, which will take some incremental investment and I think some real opportunities there. Now again, things differ a little bit and Missouri side the regulation is more constructive in terms of mitigating lag, and we're aligned with other utilities in that state. So a lot of this comes down to working on mechanisms of Kansas, and that will inform how we shape our capital plan, particularly over time.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay. And then maybe just one last thing on just that last point of Kansas because obviously, this would have been a relevant thing to be aware of kind of in the current rate case too in terms of perceived ability to -- for future kind of growth and all the stuff. Just like is there any olive branches or things that have been shared that should give us any hope that the other folks are going to engage in a -- along the lines of what you want as opposed to kind of what happened in this rate case?
David Campbell:
Yes. I think people have to -- we'll have to demonstrate those results on the Kansas side, so it's not the show-me side of our two jurisdictions. But non element of seeing that happen. What I think is the groundwork that creates a positive context of that discussion is the sheer amount of economic development potential that we see in Kansas. We know that it's important for many stakeholders in the state to be positioned to take advantage of that because they see those opportunities and they know that for us to be in a position to meet -- for example, I've mentioned over 600 megawatts of potential incremental capacity needs. If we're in a wait if we always are waiting until it's already there to build things and it's harder to be in a position of attracted and meet it and the timeliness that's required. So I think that backdrop of economic development potential is a positive one to help advance the discussions. But there's no question that we've got work to do on the capital structure front and on the insurance that we have competitive -- the opportunity for competitive returns. So work in front of us. We do think that backdrop of a lot of economic potential and potential opportunity in Kansas is the right way to do it. We also think it's the right frame to pursue that discussion outside the context of the biggest -- such a big rate case, the first one in five years since we formed the company with unique global attention. So we think the time is now to work on and address that issue.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay. All right. But you're saying -- you think it is, are you getting a sense that other people kind of get that too?
David Campbell:
I think we've got the opportunity for us to constructive discussions. We've obviously got work to do to get it done.
Operator:
Thank you. And one moment as we move on to our next question. And our next question is going to come from the line of Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Paul Patterson:
Hey, good morning. I just want to just I apologize for not completely following the capital structure issue. And that's been asked a couple of times. What are I guess, if I'm understanding it and tell me where I'm wrong, you guys are planning on having discussions with them about getting to the ability to sort of have a basically that the utility capital structure would be looked at and the holding company in the context of how it's treated in other jurisdictions like FERC and what have you. Is that the way to sort of think about it?
David Campbell:
Yes. Paul, I think you've got it right.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. And then I did notice, as I did, I think, on the first quarter that there was a benefit from capitalized interest. How should we think about that going forward? Was this -- I think it was a benefit this quarter. How should we think about the potential benefit or what have you going into 2023 or 2024, excuse me, I apologize.
Kirkland Andrews:
Paul, it's Kirk, I think as you're thinking about capitalized interest, you may be referring to the fact that we're able to defer some of the interest cost on...
Paul Patterson:
I apologize. Sorry, go ahead.
Kirkland Andrews:
Capitalized O&M.
Paul Patterson:
I apologize.
Kirkland Andrews:
All I would tell you is that our capitalization of certain portions of O&M is informed by the activities that either directly or indirectly support our capital investment program and is consistent and well researched from a benchmarking standpoint, time studies and the like. So it's basically in line with industry policy and certainly reflects the initiatives that are underway in terms of improving our infrastructure and investing in things like new generation. So it's really important by that and expect it to be pretty consistent going forward.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. So it's just a general, there wasn't anything -- because it looked like it was a benefit this quarter, there isn't any particular project or anything that's causing that. That's just sort of there isn't expected to be much of a deviation in that, I guess, is the way to think about it going forward. Is that correct?
Kirkland Andrews:
No. Nothing of significant change going forward.
David Campbell:
And the benefit in the quarter and year-to-date was an overall reduction in O&M cost, which obviously is a much broader reflection of our overall O&M cost reductions.
Operator:
And I would now like to hand the conference back over to David Campbell for any closing remarks.
David Campbell:
Thank you, everyone, for your participation in the call today. We look forward to seeing you at EEI. That wraps it up.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q2 2023 Evergy, Inc. Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Pete Flynn, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Peter Flynn:
Thank you, , and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Evergy's Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Our webcast slides and supplemental financial information are available on our Investor Relations website at investors.evergy.com. Today's discussion will include forward-looking information. Slide 2, in the disclosures in our SEC filings contain a list of some of the factors that could cause future results to differ materially from our expectations. They also include additional information on our non-GAAP financial measures. Joining us on today's call are David Campbell, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Kirk Andrews, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. David will cover our second quarter highlights, our integrated resource plan and regulatory and legislative priorities. Kirk will cover in more detail the second quarter results, retail sales trends and our financial outlook for the year. Other members of management are with us and will be available during the question-and-answer portion of the call. I will now turn the call over to David.
David Campbell:
Thanks, Pete, and good morning, everyone. I will begin on Slide 5, and I'm pleased to report that Evergy had a solid second quarter as we delivered adjusted earnings of $0.81 per share compared to $0.84 per share a year ago. The decrease was driven by less favorable weather as well as higher depreciation and amortization interest expense partially offset by growth in weather normalized sales, transmission margin and lower O&M expenses. Kirk will discuss these earnings drivers in more detail in his remarks. Our reliability metrics were strong for the year, through June as average duration and frequency, otherwise known as SAIDI and SAIFI, were favorable to relative to our target. I'd like to call out the work of our distribution and transmission teams for the improvements in system resiliency that we're seeing. Weather has been less cooperative to start the third quarter and on July 14, our service territory experienced a severe storm. The storm produced 80 to 100-mile per hour winds resulting in our most impactful storm in recent history. As the storm's peak, nearly 200,000 Evergy customers were without power, as high winds down countless turbulence and damaged or destroyed nearly 500 power poles. We estimate total O&M costs of $6.5 million for the storm recovery efforts. I'd like to thank the nearly 3,500 Evergy employees contractors and personnel from neighboring utilities that assisted in making repairs, working with customers and restoring power. Our crews worked 16-hour shifts through hot and humid conditions as well as follow-on storms that disrupted the restoration efforts, and our customer teams also worked over time to field calls and support our customers. Our front-line workers are the bedrock of safely delivering affordable and reliable power to our customers and communities. We're extremely proud of and grateful for their contributions to these challenging conditions. Our team's consistent execution has resulted in a solid start to the year, and we are reaffirming our 2023 adjusted EPS guidance range of $3.55 to $3.75 per share as well as our target long-term annual adjusted EPS growth of 6% to 8% from 2021 to 2025. Slide 6 highlights our annual integrated resource plan updates, which were filed on June 15 in both Kansas and Missouri. This year's updates reflect the impacts of the renewable support provided by the Inflation Reduction Act, revised load forecast, increase Southwest Power Pool capacity margin requirements, potential changes to environmental regulations and updated commodity price forecasts. As a reminder, in 2022, nearly half of the energy that we generated for our retail customers came from carbon-free resources. Reflecting the contributions of our Wolf Creek nuclear plant and the 4,400 megawatt portfolio of renewable resources that we own or contract with long-term power purchase agreements. Over the next 10 years, taking advantage of the ample resource potential of our region as well as substantial federal subsidies, we plan to add more than 3,000 megawatts of new end and solar resources. The timing of these additions reflects the outputs of our recent all resource request for proposal, which was no doubt, affected the global supply chain challenges impacting solar wind and battery project availability and costs. Tightening capacity conditions in the Southwest Power Pool and higher demand also factored into the annual IRP update, reflecting higher capacity needs, this year's preferred plan includes the introduction hydrogen capable combined cycle gas turbines in the latter half of the decade. We now expect to cease all coal operations in Lawrence units 4 and 5 and to convert Lawrence Unit 5 to natural gas in 2028. In aggregate, the 2023 preferred plan includes 4,800 megawatts of new resource additions through 2032, an increase of 1,200 megawatts when compared to the 2022 Integrated Resource Plan update. As our generation fleet evolves, we are focused on achieving a responsible balance between non-carbon emitting inter-median resources typically with low or negative marginal costs and older firm dispatchable generation with higher marginal costs, all while ensuring reliability and affordability for our customers and communities. We're excited about the potential investment opportunities ahead of us as we continue to transition our portfolio over the coming years. Moving to Slide 7, I'll provide an update on our regulatory and legislative priorities. In Kansas, we're awaiting intervenor testimony, which is due to be filed by August 29 and our pending Kansas Central and Kansas Metro rate cases. Activity in September picks up with rebuttal testimony due September 18 and the settlement conference scheduled for September 21. Should an agreement be reached, we'd be required to file it by September 29. Otherwise, hearings would run from October 9 through the 13. We look forward to working with all parties to achieve a constructive outcome and advance regionally competitive rates for our Kansas customers and communities. Shifting to Missouri, the order approving our request to securitize extraordinary costs from Winter Storm Uri remains in the state of pellet process with oral arguments to be held September 7. We believe the Missouri Commission's decision and support of securitization is well supported by the record. As a reminder, we will complete the securitization financing after the appeal plays out, but incremental carrying costs incurred prior to approval will ultimately be recovered when we issue the debt. We anticipate resolution later this year. I'll conclude my remarks with Slide 8, which highlights the core tenets of our strategy, affordability, reliability and sustainability. On the affordability front, advancing regional rate competitiveness is one of our primary objectives. Our focus on delivering benefits to our customers since the 2018 merger is reflected and demonstrated in the EIA data on rate trends across states in the Central United States over the past 5 years. In addition, direct market evidence is provided by ongoing wins in economic development in our territory. We're pleased by our progress in improving regional rate competitiveness and keeping our rate trajectory well below the rate of inflation. Affordability is and will always be an area of focus. Ensuring reliability is also a core element of our strategy. And along with SAIDI and SAIFI, this includes a focus on metrics relating to customer service, the commercial availability of our fleet, safety and all elements of our operations, including infrastructure investment. This summer has brought resiliency and reliability to the forefront as storm activity in our service territory has been more prevalent than normal. Including the July 14 storms, of straight-line wins in excess of 80 miles an hour. These types of conditions reinforce the importance of our ongoing transmission and distribution investments. And with respect to sustainability, we continue to advance the transition of our generation fleet as detailed in our 2023 IRP update and continuing the progress of the last 2 decades. Since 2005, we significantly and cost effectively transformed our generation fleet, reducing carbon emissions by nearly half, reducing sulfur dioxide and NOx emissions by 98% and 88%, respectively, and we look forward to the ongoing portfolio transition. Our mission is to empower a better future, and our vision is to lead the responsible energy transition in our region, always with an eye on affordability and reliability as well as sustainability. With that, I will now turn the call over to Kirk.
Kirkland Andrews:
Thanks, David, and good morning, everyone. Turning to Slide 10, I'll start with a review of our results for the quarter. For the second quarter of 2023, Evergy delivered adjusted earnings of $186.1 million or $0.81 per share and that's compared to $194.5 million or $0.84 per share in the second quarter of 2022. As shown on the slide from left to right, the year-over-year increase in the second quarter adjusted EPS was driven by the following
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from the line of Durgesh Chopra from Evercore ISI.
Durgesh Chopra:
I have two questions. I appreciate the fact that with the IRP moves, you guys kind of reaffirmed your CapEx and rate base outlook. Maybe can you just get a little bit more granular and quantify how much CapEx was there associated with renewables in the current plan? And then what are the opportunities on the grid mod side or other opportunities that you think that as a result of those moves, that CapEx and rate base growth profile is still intact. Any color there?
David Campbell:
Sure. So I guess, thanks for the question. It's a good one. When we put out our integrated resource plan, you'll recall that we also released a slide at the time, saying that our overall capital investment plan for 2023 -- 2022, 2023 to 2027 was in line with our updates within the last quarter. Now there is some mix shift in that we haven't published that overall change yet. We're going through that process as we typically will through the course of the year. The Integrated Resource Plan has a higher overall total level of resource additions, but there's some phasing shifts over the near term, particularly there's a drop in window in the near term, and that reflects to a large degree, supply chain constraints and the impact of product availability and costs. And why we reaffirmed our overall capital plans is for the factors that you highlighted. We have a wide range of beneficial infrastructure investments, particularly in the grid modernization and grid resiliency side that are the elements that we expect will be a little bit higher and will contribute to an overall capital plan that is consistent. Now again, over the 10-year time frame, we have a relatively significant addition of new resources. So in that time period, you can expect that they'll all sequel be an uptick and capital expenditures, we only give a 5-year plan update. But you'll see some elements of that when we get to year-end because we'll add 2028 to our public disclosures, and you'll start seeing -- we start some of those resource additions that I mentioned, in particular relating to hydrogen capable new natural gas units, a lot of that capital expenditure, you'll see showing up in the latter part of our capital plan, a 5-year plan.
Durgesh Chopra:
Got it. Okay. So you remain confident in your CapEx and rate base outlook and we'll look for more color on the Q4 call. That's the key takeaway there. Okay. Just then on the Kansas rate cases, just can you give us any incremental data points? What's the feedback pain from various stakeholders and the potential for a settlement? I know you put out some dates there, but just looking for any additional color that you can share?
David Campbell:
Yes to guess for better worse, the way the process plays out. We don't have a lot to share. We'll see the -- we're still in the process of sort of a rigorous back and forth in terms of receiving a lot of questions with capital, if happens in all rate cases. So we'll have a good sense and you can get some feel for where parties are focusing to the questions. We really get a sense of things when they're -- when the first round of testimonies filed. So August 29 is going to be a day that people will be doing a lot of reading, certainly on our side, so you'll see staff and intervenor testimony on that day. So I get a lot more color on things as we head into in August and September. We will certainly look forward to the opportunity to work constructively with all parties and seeking a settlement. It's been 5 years since the last rate case. But otherwise, at least in our , it's a pretty straightforward rate case in terms of the elements that are included, it's primarily related to the infrastructure investments that have been made over that time period, plus the amount of cost savings that we've been able to achieve as a result of the merger with a couple of items that I think are pretty clearly described and laid out. So it's a little less complicated than some elements at least of our Missouri West case last year, that's again probably many years. So we look forward to constructively engaging with the parties, but you'll learn more about that later this month and then particularly as we head into September and October.
Operator:
One moment to our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Shar Pourreza from Guggenheim Partners.
Shahriar Pourreza:
I just want to be crystal clear on the response that you gave to Durgesh because, I mean, obviously, this was a very deep IRP update a few weeks ago. So is the messaging that it is status quo from just a capital perspective to the current trajectory, but there could be some step function increases as we shift forward. I just want to get a bit of a sense there.
David Campbell:
So as of my -- to sharpen my response, I'll ask Kirk go first. Kirk, go ahead and I'll follow up.
Kirkland Andrews:
So I think about it -- first of all, I think Durgesh asked this question as well. I mean, I think our overall -- and we put this in a broad category, new generation renewables, our fourth quarter update, the cumulative amount of that was a little over $2.1 billion. And that's obviously contributes to the aggregate $11.6 billion. The way to think about that is, yes, our overall magnitude of capital expenditures is in line. We also expect the magnitude capital expenditure on new generation and renewals to be in line. We do expect some probably some timing shifts. We also expect the annual cadence of that capital expenditure is to accumulate up to that $11.6 billion to also be consistent, will probably be a little bit of a mix shift because if you look at the magnitude and the cadence specifically of renewables and new generation year-over-year informed by the IRP kind of plan over plan, that will probably imply a little bit of variation in the implied capital expenditure space over that period of time. Over we have an abundance of very necessary and beneficial grid modernization projects. So you may see a little shift between those 2 categories year-over-year. But overall, the aggregate magnitude, the amount of generation as well as the annual magnitude will be in line. That helps.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Yes, it does.
David Campbell:
And I'll add. So Kirk, thank you for the clarity. I'll add an additional point is we're very focused on affordability and as we think about our capital planning. We have and we were able to have the opportunity to go through this with. Our Kansas commissioners and we have a similar dialogue. Of course, Missouri, we've been able to go through, we've got an old system. We've got a lot of very wide range of beneficial projects that are available to us. We calibrate our level of expenditure with an eye towards affordability. There's no doubt around that. So we'll continue to shape that, but we've got a really robust capital plan informed by parts of our system are still very old. So we've got, if you will, a backlog of beneficial projects. So we're always going to keep an eye on affordability as well.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Got it. And David, can you just speak a little bit more broadly to sort of the transmission expansion backdrop in SPP and MISOs. Now looking at tranche 2 and 3, they're spending billions on moving power through your neighboring systems. Do you see the RTO picking up the pace here in the years ahead? Just any color on the backdrop, especially as you guys continue to evaluate on the generation side?
David Campbell:
Well, that's a great question, Shar. I think it's fair to say that the Southwest Power Pool, certainly, if you look at their strategic plan, the grid of the future and the future evolution of the long-term transmission plan is on their agenda. But it's also fair to say that what's on their agenda is a process that will lead to kind of tranches 1, 2 and 3. So in that sense, it's -- they're not at the same stage as MISO in the Southwest Power Pool. In other words, it's still some time away. Now we, as a big player in the Southwest Power Pool are certainly an advocate for going through the process. We know how important it's going to be as you look at our integrated resource plan, especially as you get to the latter part of this decade in the 2030s. And this is true across all of the players really in our space and will be impacted by things like the evolving federal EPA rules, there's a lot of changes in our resource plan that are coming. And the transmission grid is going to have to be ready for that. So I think we, as a participant in SPP will continue to be an advocate for moving down the path. I think it's fair to say that the where you see tranches 1, 2 and 3 mice, so you don't yet see those in SPP, but it's on their strategic agenda, and we'll be working with them to try to advance it because it is evolving -- further evolving the transmission grid is going to be very important to our region to keep rates affordable as we transition our fleet.
Shahriar Pourreza:
I think that is fantastic. You guys covered everything. I appreciate it.
Operator:
One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Bank of America.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Can you guys hear me? Excellent. Look just following up with the last question. Let me just jump to this. Obviously, the updated IRP had a fairly modest, if not flattish outlook on load a lot of the commentary that you're making here would kind of perhaps suggest that, that certainly has an upside bias to it. We've seen that in other jurisdictions. How do you think about the evolution of your load forecast itself? What's in that plan? What's not in that plan? Again, obviously, you just filed this. So obviously, there's a certain element of it being still relevant. But maybe you could talk about some of the pivots in it as you think about this IRP, just at the outside.
David Campbell:
Yes, it's a great question, Julien, because it's a -- I think it is an upside factor for our sector and for our region as well. We do have a low, medium and high demand case in the integrated resource plan. We typically, in the long-term planning elements I think in the mid-range at 0.5% rate of growth. We had a higher level of growth we expected in are embedded in our plan in 2023, which we've seen tracking with our results at least in the first half of the year. Over the long term, there are certainly structural factors that I would argue could take us more towards the higher end rather than that 0.5% per year, and that's going to be from electrification and some of the large new loads that are coming in as we effectively are reshoring, if you will, here in the United States. So the -- and then the last element which gets more and more focused is the transformation of electricity demand driven by AI and the need for more and more data centers. So I do think there's some upside factors. Those 3 electrification onshoring and proliferation of data centers. I think it's also fair to say that, that could be upside to the long-term plans. Now a lot of that will manifest itself the latter part of this decade into the 2030s. But I think those long-term fundamentals are strong and should present some, if you will, bias towards the higher -- it's in the IRP, but it's more in the high case close the mid. And I think for our region, the additional piece that we have relative to some others is, of course, a lot of our portfolio transition does occur in the 2030s well, right? We've -- as we know, we've got a -- we have an interesting mix in our generation portfolio. We've got half -- basically half its emissions free and half that's fossil-based relatively higher share of coal. There's several utilities have a similar share. But a lot of that transition for us will happen in the 2030. So I think the long-term fundamentals from a resource planning perspective, from a demand perspective, are strong. And as we know, when there's demand growth, that helps with affordability because you're spreading across costs across a bigger pie. So I think it's a great question, and I think it's something that leads us to have a bullish outlook in the long term.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Just pivoting here to the guidance and just year-to-date results, if you will. I know you guys have a cost legacy and kudos on that front. $0.29 is pretty impressive as a headline number here on O&M. Can you talk a little bit about what those items are, the sustainability of them into '24. Maybe some of the puts and takes within guidance that you contemplated at the start of the year, i.e., how are you tracking against those guidance items? Because it would seem as if with weather still fairly modest as a headwind $0.29. I know you offset the persimmons here, but like it's certainly a nice showing on the cost front in year-to-date sense.
David Campbell:
So Julien, there's a lot there. I think -- and I'll ask Kirk to supplement. It's -- we like our peer utilities try to manage our business in an overall perspective based on managing as best we can the things in our control, as things outside of our control move. Weather has been a headwind this year. July was on the mile side, at least in our region, I know it's been quite variable across the U.S. We're in the milder side in July, but it did even vary across our service territory. So proud of the team and how we manage costs. You asked about which elements it really is, and we review this on a rigorous basis across the entire part of our business from ops to our generation side, transition distribution, our customer operation in the corporate center. So some of this is timing and phasing, as Kirk mentioned in his remarks, but we are going to be managing the business dynamically and just as our peer utilities do, because we reaffirm our annual guidance this year, and we seek to, again, manage the things that are within our control so that we are in a position to offset factors that are outside of our control. So proud of the team for their cost management we've laid out is no ongoing cost savings as part of our plan. So I think that, that continues to be our plan as we look through to 2025. But it's a testament to the work of the team and the efforts of our enterprise to drive affordability and benefits for our customers and manage our business so that we can hit our plan and deliver results.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. So it sounds like there could be some items here, but you're not ready necessarily to say the...
David Campbell:
Yes. Yes, we're sticking with our guidance for the year, Julien, and it's -- we'll manage the business dynamically just as you've seen us do in for the first part of the year and the prior year.
Kirkland Andrews:
Yes. And without quantification, Julien, just to add on to that. I mean, you're correct. I mean, you're the keen observer, right? You got that large number year-to-date. I even said in my remarks, it was partially to do inter-year timing, partially doesn't mean all of it. And that's our job through the year, right? Making sure that we stay vigilant around our cost, so we've got that cushion to be able to offset some of the unknown variables, right? We can't control weather. David mentioned, we had a little bit of storm cost past the first half of the year, that storm-related cost, that gives us a cushion to absorb that. And obviously, the variability that we're all experiencing on interest rates. So staying ahead of the game and being vigilant around those costs away from that intra-year timing. Some of it can't really extrapolate that over the balance of the year. But having that in our pocket to look towards the back half of the year allows us to maintain our commitment because as we've said, one of the things that we are very focused on here is making sure we deliver on those commitments, right? The means by which we do that is dynamic during the year because there's anything but a static environment because of some of the elements I've addressed.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. All right. I got more I'll leave them offline. Thank you very much. Have a great day.
Operator:
One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Sullivan from Wolfe.
Michael Sullivan:
Just wanted to put a finer point on that last line of questioning. So the mild July weather and then that storm impact is -- are both of those factored into the '23 guide reaffirmation?
David Campbell:
So Michael, obviously, we don't have our full results for July yet. We are able to quantify the storm costs and include that in the script. But we did affirm -- we are affirming our annual guidance range today. So we'll -- so to the answer to your question is yes. Based on the information we have now, we are affirming our guidance for the year. And as Kirk described, very important for us to we'll stay ever focused on that and keep working those things that we are in our control to help offset if the other nation can shift day-to-day factors that are outside our control. But yes, we're affirming our guidance for 2023 today.
Michael Sullivan:
Okay. Great. That's helpful. And then a lot of what you updated in the IRP, I think you mentioned, was formed by the recent RFP process? When will we see the results or more detail on that RFP?
Kirkland Andrews:
Hey Mike, it's Kirk. I think you'll expect to see that from us later and you can't discount the possibility we may have some more information once we get to the third quarter call in November. But as we move through the back half of the year, we'll certainly have some more information about that.
David Campbell:
And part of it Michael, you can appreciate it relates to ongoing negotiations that are currently -- that's the main driver as to why, you're not hearing more.
Operator:
One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Paul Patterson from Glenrock Associates.
Paul Patterson:
I just have one question at this point. And that is there's a rate design change with time of use that's coming up here, I guess, in Missouri for you guys. And I'm just wondering, it looks like there's a potential for some significant changes. And is there any I guess, is there any risk that customers might be -- some customers might be implicitly surprised by the change even though it's a rate design issue, people don't necessarily know what's going on and it's time of use and they're just not prepared for it. And sometimes in certain jurisdictions, we've seen, it happens from time to time where people are very upset by something that kind of a change, if you follow me.
David Campbell:
Paul, it's a good question again. You're correct. It's from Missouri jurisdictions only and as a result of the last rate cases, there is a Missouri Commission. I feel strongly about this topic and included in their order a move towards time use rates for all customers in Missouri. Now fortunately, partially as a result of a revision that was made for the order that's being implemented in the fall. So it is being implemented in -- later this year when we're out of the hot weather season, we've had time and we've put out a lot of communications around the Tommy use transition, and we'll continue to have a lot of communications. There are several different options, one of which is a relatively modest change relative to the historical rate plans. So we think with the level of communication tools we now have, the number of folks who have online accounts, that the level of information will be high. So a big part of what we'll need to do and adhering to the commission's order on this is just having a high level of communication. And fortunately, again, with it being implemented in the fall, in a milder weather time, I think that it will be a little more explainable to customers. And it primarily relates to the hours of 4 to 8 p.m. weekdays, so it's a concentrated approach. So even though it is, as you know, rate design is not intuitive to many customers. I think our team has done a nice job laying out what it entails, what it means and how customers can work with it. So we're working to be commissions order, and we think we'll be able to communicate with our customers, make sure we work with them as they go through the transition and select the plan that's best for them.
Operator:
Thank you. At this time, I would now like to turn the conference back over to David Campbell for closing remarks.
David Campbell:
Great. Thank you. I'd like to thank everyone for your interest in Evergy this morning, and hope you have a great day. That concludes the call.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q1 2023 Evergy Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during this session, you will need to press star-one-one on your telephone. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your speaker for today. Peter Flynn, you may go ahead.
Peter Flynn:
Thank you, Lisa, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Evergy's first quarter 2023 earnings conference call. Our webcast slides and supplemental financial information are available on our Investor Relations website at investors.evergy.com. Today's discussion will include forward-looking information. Slide 2 and the disclosures in our SEC filings contain a list of some of the factors that could cause future results to differ materially from our expectations. They also include additional information on our non-GAAP financial measures. Joining us on today's call are David Campbell, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Kirk Andrews, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. David will cover our first quarter highlights provide regulatory and legislative updates and discuss our ESG progress. Kirk will cover in more detail the first quarter results, retail sales trends and our financial outlook for the year. Other members of management are with us and will be available during the question-and-answer portion of the call. I will now turn the call over to David.
David Campbell:
Thanks, Pete, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin on Slide 5, and I'm pleased to report that Evergy had a solid first quarter as we delivered adjusted earnings of $0.59 per share compared to $0.56 per share a year ago. The increase was driven by weather-normalized sales growth, transmission margin and lower O&M expenses, partially offset by the impact of a mild winter, an increase in depreciation and amortization and higher interest expense. Kirk will discuss these earnings drivers in more detail in a few minutes. In 2022, we achieved our historically best safety year, and I'm pleased to report that our OSHA recordables and days away and restricted time events are trending favorably relative to those '22 results through the first quarter of this year. These improvements are a testament to the work of the entire Evergy team. I'd like to thank my fellow employees for their unwavering commitment to safety. With the solid start to the year, we are reaffirming our 2023 adjusted EPS guidance range of $3.55 to $3.75 per share as well as our target long-term annual adjusted EPS growth target of 6% to 8% from 2021 to 2025. On Slide 6 and 7, I'll discuss our recently filed Kansas rate reviews, beginning with Kansas Central on Slide 6. On April 25, we filed an application requesting a $204 million revenue increase, premised on a 10.25% return on equity, a 52% equity ratio and a projected $6 billion rate base as of the proposed June 30, 2023 true update. As shown on Slide 7, in Kansas Metro, we requested a $14 million revenue increase, premised on a 10.25% return on equity a 52% equity ratio and a projected $2.6 million rate base as of the proposed June 30 true update. We believe these rate requests are straightforward and reflect the communications we've had with our Kansas regulators and stakeholders in workshops and other settings over the past few years. The principal items include recovery and return on our grid modernization and infrastructure investments since our last rate reviews in 2018 as well as passing on to our customers the benefits of the substantial cost savings we've achieved since the merger that formed Evergy five years ago. Across our two Kansas jurisdictions, these cost savings reduced the combined revenue increase request by 37%. We are pleased that the hard work of the Evergy team resulted in cost savings that are significantly higher than projected during the merger approval process. These efforts have been a major contributor to successfully advancing our regional rate competitiveness. Since the end of 2017, our rates in Kansas have remained virtually flat, while our regional peers have, on average, increased their rates by double digits and cumulative inflation has been over 20%. As a reminder, Kansas rate cases run on an eight-month schedule, so new rates will go into effect by year-end 2023. We'll provide an updated time line when a procedural schedule has been issued. We look forward to working with our regulators and stakeholders over the coming months to achieve a constructive outcome for our Kansas customers and communities. Moving on to Slide 8. I'll provide an update on our other regulatory and legislative priorities. In Kansas, Governor Kelly signed House Bill 2225 into law in April and will become effective in 2024. The bill includes provision that matches the return on equity for our locally planned FERC transition projects to the return on equity established by the state for our other infrastructure investments. This law applies specifically to current and future transmission projects that are not subject to notifications to construct from the Southwest Power Pool. HB 2225 keeps our transmission delivery charge rider mechanism, or TDC, unchanged and fully intact. This bill provides savings to customers and was a product of constructive dialogue with Kansas regulators, legislators and other stakeholders. In Missouri, the order approving our request to securitize extraordinary costs from Winter Storm Uri is in the state of pellet process. We believe the commission's decision in support of securitization is well supported by the record. As a reminder, we will complete the securitization financing after the appeal plays out, but incremental carrying costs incurred prior to approval will ultimately be recovered when we issue the debt. We anticipate resolution later this year. On the legislative side, we're tracking the progress of Senate Bill 275 in Missouri, which would create a state and local sales tax exemption for the production of electricity. If signed into law, these savings will be passed on to customers and our next Missouri rate case. And bill has passed out of the Senate and currently waits debate on the House floor. Other bills relating to the energy sector may also receive attention this month. For example, the build it enhances state oversight of transmission and improve the consistency of transmission operations and planning, referred to in shorthand as right of first refusal legislation continues to be an area of focus. The benefits of this legislation are reflected by similar laws that are in effect in the majority of states across our region. However, as the Missouri legislative session is scheduled to adjourn on May 12, timing is tight, and we expect that the discussion of ROFR and other energy-related bills may continue into next year. As a final note on Slide 8, we remain on track to file our annual integrated resource plan updates in both Kansas and Missouri by mid-June. This year's IRP updates will include significant changes in assumptions, most notably updated cost estimates for new generation as well as substantial subsidies in the Federal Inflation Reduction Act for carbon-free resources. Moving to Slide 9. I'll profile another element of our corporate strategy related to environmental, social and governance measures. We continue to enhance our ESG practices and disclosures and our efforts have been recognized and reflected in significant improvements and third-party ESG ratings for Evergy. For example, Slide 9 profiles the comprehensive progress that we've made in the ESG ratings provided by ISS and by S&P Global's corporate sustainability assessment. From a disclosure perspective, 2022 marked the first year Evergy completed full CDP climate and water security questionnaires as well as the global reporting initiative report. We've also joined the Electric Power Research Institute's Climate Ready Initiative, a research partnership aimed at developing a collective approach to identifying and managing physical climate risks. Over time, we expect this effort to support the optimization of our grid investment priorities, utilizing a common framework around cost benefit analysis, risk mitigation and adaptation strategies. Finally, we continue to integrate climate-related risks into our enterprise risk management system. This is the best practice, which will allow us to identify and mitigate the impact of current and future risks in our business enhancing our ability to provide safe, reliable and affordable power. I'll conclude my remarks with Slide 10, which highlights the core tenets of our strategy
Kirk Andrews:
Thanks, David, and good morning, everyone. Turning to Slide 12, I'll start with a review of our results for the quarter. For the first quarter of 2023, Evergy delivered adjusted earnings of $136 million or $0.59 per share, that's compared to $130 million or $0.56 per share in the first quarter of 2022. As shown on the slide from left to right, the year-over-year increase in first quarter adjusted EPS was driven by the following. First, mild winter weather resulted in an approximate 11% decrease in heating degree days compared to last year, driving an $0.08 decrease in EPS. The strong weather-normalized demand of 2.1%, driven by the residential and commercial sectors contributed $0.04 per share. Higher transmission margins resulting from our ongoing investments to enhance our transmission infrastructure drove a $0.02 increase. A $36 million decrease in O&M drove a positive $0.12 variance year-over-year. This was partially the result of timing of O&M expenditures within 2023. The net impact of higher depreciation and amortization was $0.07 for the quarter, which includes the offsetting impact of new retail rates. Proceeds from company-owned life insurance contributed $0.04 during the quarter. And the combination of higher interest expense and lower AFUDC drove a $0.13 decrease with interest expense representing $0.11 of that variance. The increase in interest expense reflects the lower rate environment in early 2022, and we expect rate-driven variances to decrease in magnitude as we move through the year, consistent with the assumptions in our guidance. And finally, other items, both positive and negative, drove a net increase of $0.09, which was primarily driven by other income and income tax-related items. Turning to Slide 13, I'll provide a brief update on our recent sales trends. On the left side of the slide, you'll see that total retail sales increased 2.1% over the first quarter of 2022, driven primarily by increases in both residential and commercial usage. The decrease in industrial demand is primarily attributable to two refining customers, one of which experienced a high demand a year ago, and the other offline this past quarter due to a planned outage. Excluding these two customers, however, remaining industrial weather-normalized demand increased. Demand growth continues to be supported by a strong local labor market with Kansas and Kansas City Metro by area unemployment rates of 2.7% and 2.9%, respectively, which remained below the national average of 3.6%. I'll conclude my remarks with Slide 14. Our focus remains on continuing to demonstrate a strong track record of execution. As David mentioned earlier, based on solid first quarter results, combined with our outlook for the remainder of the year, we are reaffirming both our adjusted EPS guidance range for 2023 and as well as our long-term compound annual EPS growth rate target of 6% to 8% from 2021 to 2025 based on the midpoint of our original 2021 EPS guidance of $3.30. We also remain committed to returning capital to our shareholders and target dividend growth in line with earnings growth with a dividend payout ratio of between 60% to 70%. In addition to allowing us to achieve these financial targets, executing on this investment plan advances our key objectives of ensuring affordability, reliability and sustainability over the long term. And with that, we'll open the call up for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] First question is coming from Shar Pourreza of Guggenheim. Your line is open.
Shar Pourreza:
Good morning. Maybe we'll just start with the Persimmon Creek project. Obviously, you pivoted from Missouri to Kansas and included it in the latest cases there. Where is the pathway forward, if you're unable to roll the project into rates there? Does it stay at the parent? And also any color on how to think about the earnings impact, if that were the case versus the $0.05 you originally had in plan?
David Campbell:
So I'll start off and ask Kirk to supplement, we think the Persimmon Creek asset is a great asset, given the overall cost at its size. It's we think the best value is supported by integrated resource plan in terms of both capacity and energy needs. It's well situated from a transmission perspective, and we think it fits well with the needs that we're going to have in our Kansas jurisdiction, which continue to see ongoing growth in demand and across service territory with new customers like Panasonic. So, we like the asset that fits in well with the RP. We think it's a great resource for our customers. So as noted, it was included in our filing on April 25. It will go through the process. And so, we'll -- along with our other infrastructure investments that we've included. Your question on EPS, given that it's rolling to the Kansas jurisdiction, which doesn't have the same piece of requirements, we won't see the earnings contribution in 2023 deliver a very similar profile in the following years. And again, we think it's a great asset.
Shar Pourreza:
Got it. Perfect. And then, Dave, I know you and Kirk have been working tirelessly with the KCC. I know obviously, the capital components of the case have been really well vetted through the STP. As we kind of get the process started, I realize it's obviously very early innings, but is the settlement possible here? Or do you expect kind of a fully live case at this point?
David Campbell:
So Shar, that's a question we get for many investors. As you can guess, since we filed it on April 25, probably a little speculative for me to be specific as to what will occur. We do think that we have a pretty straightforward rate case. The complexity only really comes from the fact that it's been five years since our last general rate case. But the elements are straightforward. We have any major generation retirements. We don't have complexities like some of the things that you can see after this longer time period. So we think the framing is there for a constructive set of dialogues and certainly will be our objective to drive towards settlement. Now that will be in the fall. So we're a ways away. But as you noted, what's a real positive in this case is that we've had the opportunity to preview and go through our capital investment plans in a series of workshops over the last three years. Starting with the STP workshops as you noted in 2020 and continuing given to the capital workshop that we had in December, and those were multi-hour workshops attended by all three commissioners the whole time. And it included for projections on rates. And what we filed is in line with what we laid out in those proceeding. So, we think that sets the groundwork for a constructive set of discussions. And of course, the process will play out as it will. We've got a very highly capable and knowledgeable staff at the KCC. So, we look forward to interacting with them with curb and with other stakeholders through the process, and we certainly hope that will have a constructive dialogue that enables the settlement as we advance through the year. Eight months time line, as I mentioned. So the rates will go into effect in December, and a lot of the crescendo happens in the fall time frame.
Shar Pourreza:
Got it. Got it. Perfect. And then just real quick lastly for me. It's just the ROE tweak from the TDC bill that passed in Kansas. It seems like it could be a modest drag in '24 and maybe beyond. Is that the case? And how are you, I guess, thinking about potential offsets there? Appreciate it.
David Campbell:
Yes. So, it is a pretty modest impact, Shar, in the range of roughly $0.04 or so. We think we can absolutely manage that in the context of our business given our size and our overall earnings power. We think the ultimate resolution was reflected a constructive dialogue. The initial proposal that was issued was to remove the TDC mechanism or concerns by some of why you have a different mechanism in place and a lower level of state oversight. So, we're able to get an accommodation that enhanced data oversight of transmission at an equivalent and the return on equity for different types of infrastructure investments, but keeps the TDC mechanism in place. So, we thought it was constructive or outcome overall and one that's very manageable and was a sensible approach as we headed into 2023 in a rate case here, and we're glad that we're able to work with parties to get to that outcome.
Shar Pourreza:
Fantastic guys. Appreciate it very clear cut.
Operator:
Thank you, one moment while we prepare for the next question. And our next question is going to be coming from Michael Sullivan of Wolfe Research. Your line is open.
Michael Sullivan:
I wanted to just ask on how things are tracking on the year just given the mild weather and then also seeming like the Persimmon Creek nickel that you had in guidance isn't going to be realized potentially until next year now where the offsets are coming from?
David Campbell:
So, I'll -- actually, Kirk, do you want to take that one? It's been hearing from me for a bit. Do you want to build it?
Kirk Andrews:
Sure, Michael. Look, it's early in the year we had a strong start to the quarter. We've reevaluated and kind of reset our expectations for the year, including that impact of at least the debt delay, albeit relatively mild delay in terms of the realization of the earnings on percent accrete. We feel confident we've got means at our disposal to offset that through a number of means. Obviously, we're pleased with the performance on O&M. Year-to-date, I mentioned earlier, some of that is relative to timing, but gives us a lot of flexibility throughout the year to pull levers to offset. So, that's really what underpins our confidence in reaffirming that guidance for the year.
David Campbell:
Yes, Michael, I'd just note that we had a very mild winter, you saw it across the Midwest and we're fortunate that we were able to offset that. We're pleased with the solid quarter. I know that all companies have to deal with the weather piece. But for us, we're able to offset it, and we're pleased with the solid quarter results as opposed to being -- that's something to manage over the course of the year. We -- the team did really job managing in the context of the quarter. So, we feel good about the year and reaffirming our guidance range.
Michael Sullivan:
Okay. Great. And on the IRP, I know that's coming in a couple of weeks. Can we just get sort of a high-level preview there of maybe just how material changes we should be expecting in terms of new capacity need and some of the moving pieces on cost of renewables post IRA and inflation and all that?
David Campbell:
So, Michael, I won't get ahead of the results in terms of the total renewables build-out plans. What I'll note is that beneath the surface of the water, there's been a ton of churn just because the combination of -- we didn't include the kind of renewables incentives you've seen in the IRA because their last RFP update, that law was in effect. So that's a big change. At the same time, we have bids from our all-source request for proposal that we can integrate the capital costs from that real-time market information in the IRP. That's -- most of those costs have trended higher. So, there's some offsets there. So beneath the service, there are significant changes in assumptions on commodity costs. We went through a lot of volatility in natural gas prices in the back half of the year, maybe we're back to low gas forever, but I think we're probably back to is that, hey, there's potential volatility in natural gas. So there are a lot of different factors, but when you sort of run them through the modeling process, which is still ongoing, it reinforces the value of renewables over time and a lot of it comes down to availability, particularly with supply chain challenges. So I would note that I think the robust support for renewables as being low-cost opportunity for customers in a long-term research plan that absolutely remains then in the near term, it's about supply chain and what that impacts in terms of resources that are available sooner rather than later. Now some elements that will change in the future, there's a number of different EPA builds. Our EPA rules that are in the mix right now, a couple of have been issued. Others have been press reports around. So I would not expect this IRP to reflect the greenhouse gas post rule, for example. That hasn't been formally issued yet. We've seen a lot of reports on it. Those kind of rules only further reinforce, I expect the relative value of adding lower-cost resources of the system, I think it will also further reinforce the importance of capacity. So, one thing from last year that has changed is -- and there's the benefits of having capacity or even higher. We've also seen increases in demand. So a long-winded way, I'm not giving you new numbers, but the dynamics that support the value to customers of adding renewables, the system are there, maybe some further impetus to capacity resources and then some supply chain issues in the near-term work through. But we're excited about the prospects, and we'll -- obviously, I have a comprehensive update when that's when we issue the IRPs.
Michael Sullivan:
Okay. That's very helpful. Yes, the end to your response there was kind of where I wanted to follow up. I mean at the end of the day, in terms of where to expect pushback? Is this really just approving lowest cost type thing as long as you can get the reliability where it needs to be? Is that kind of what stakeholders are going to be looking for most?
David Campbell:
We look at the lowest overall cost in terms of net present value of the revenue requirement. So it's a -- we're looking at fundamental what's going to deliver the most value for customers in light of the various incentives. It's a 20- to 30-year models. So it's complicated. Our 15- to 20-year model, so there's a lot of input, but that's what it comes down is what's going to deliver the best value to our customers while ensuring reliability.
Operator:
Thank you. One moment while we prepare for the next question, and again please wait for your name to be announced before you proceed with your question, and the next question is coming from Durgesh Chopra of Evercore. Your line is open.
Durgesh Chopra:
Straightforward and my questions have been answered. Maybe I was just curious and I can follow up with Pete, if you don't have the answer. David, in your prepared remarks, you mentioned that the cost savings exceeded the original kind of targets you had when the merger -- merger happened? Can you quantify what that looks like? If not, I'll just follow up with Pete.
David Campbell:
Durgesh, it was a few hundred million dollars, but which we exceeded, several hundred million overall. Now that's across the corporate enterprise. And it's a tremendous result that was achieved by our employees. So, we can get you the exact number of several hundred million dollars in excess of what was initially predicted, if you look at the cumulative savings over the five years.
Operator:
Thank you, one moment while we proceed with next question. And the next question will be coming from Julian Smith of Bank of America. Your line is open.
Dariusz Lozny:
It's Dariusz on for Julian. Just kind of a high-level one. Obviously, you've had you've had several regulatory processes in Missouri and now you're heading into this critical Kansas rate case. Any learning/takeaways or maybe modifications to your approach that from the Missouri processes that you think are applicable as you head into the Kansas process?
David Campbell:
You're going to have to make sure your name leads off. It keeps being various on behalf of Julian. Julian's got to share a little light. It's a great question. I think there are some distinguishing elements between Missouri and Kansas, but there's always things you can learn. Missouri, we had some more complicated legacy issues. We had the Sibley plant retirement that followed. We had the piece of legislation that had been enacted, but the case was under the legacy plant and service accounting rules, which had a cost cap that kind of a commodity price surge had impacts to Missouri West, so some pretty complicated legacy issues that were impacted. No we don't face in Kansas, Missouri, we reached a constructive settlement on key economic issues in our Metro jurisdiction, which is a bigger of our two jurisdiction in Missouri. Simply in the piece of legislation, the biggest impact of Missouri West. So the settlement that we reached in Metro is a good template for what we're going to be seeking in Kansas. And in Kansas, we have the benefit of even more extensive dialogue. There was STP workshops in both states, but the ones in Kansas were -- you probably listened to a lot of them were quite in-depth and thorough and involved the commissioners, staff curve and other stakeholders. So, a rate case in Kansas is even more well situated in terms of a constructive book. It's pretty straightforward in settlements, but we strive for trying to get to common ground and settlements where we can. And I think Missouri Metro is a good template for that. And the setup is also more amenable for it and that we have a little less complexity. It has been five years. But again, the range of things that we're bringing is a little more straightforward. And as a reminder, in Kansas, transmission not for the rate case, it's focused on our distribution investments, generation, customer systems, really a lot of our grid modernization and customer-facing investments. So we look forward to the dialogue. We think the case setup is one that will enable a good constructive dialogue with the key participants.
Dariusz Lozny:
Okay. Great. Appreciate that. And apologies if you touched on this in the opening remarks, but I just noticed that there's a bit of a delta between resi and commercial sales and industrial on Q1. Can you maybe talk through any of the high-level drivers there?
Kirk Andrews:
Sure, Dariusz, it's Kirk. I've mentioned on the call, yes, we -- our industrial sales were a little bit down. It was largely a result of two refining customers, one of which had a pretty high-level comp last year with higher demand, so just kind of normalizing that a little bit. That's one effect of those two customers. The other one had a planned outage this quarter. But for those two customers in the industrial sector, our industrial demand was up year-over-year, excluding those two refining customers.
David Campbell:
Overall, we're pleased with the ongoing demand trajectory, especially on the residential and commercial side and the industrial, as Kirk mentioned, we can actually isolate it down to two customers.
Dariusz Lozny:
Okay, excellent. Thank you for the color. I'll pass it along here.
David Campbell:
Great. Thank you, Dariusz.
Operator:
Thank you and one moment while we prepare for the next question. And our next question will be coming from Paul Patterson of Glenrock Associates. Your line is open.
Paul Patterson:
So I noticed that there was a labor capitalization benefit it seemed. Could you elaborate a little bit more on that and how -- what the impact will be sort of in its trajectory, if you follow what I'm saying, in other words, is there going to be more of a benefit going forward in the near term? And is there a flip around or just if you could just elaborate a little bit more on that?
David Campbell:
Sure, Paul. And I applaud your as always, detailed review of materials. So we -- like all utilities, we have a rigorous process for reviewing our capitalization rates and making sure we're getting the right it's reflected in the underlying activities. We've had a lot of capital investment, and there's an appropriate amount that should be -- of labor that should be capitalized and a robust methodology that we know the utilities follow. So, we're applying that. I think you saw in our -- for example, in our Wolf Creek plant, there was a little bit higher capitalization rate relating to activity that was underway. Our overall trajectory in terms of O&M expenses and capital, we -- it's all part of our planning process. So, it's reflected in where our plans are. So, I wouldn't tee up that you're going to see a major change, what you'll see is ongoing implementation of the adherence to the rules that are in place in that regard. So it's reflected in our plans and is underpinned by the rigorous application, the appropriate accounting processing. So -- but I think that what you noticed was particularly driven by some projects that both Creek our nuclear plant.
Paul Patterson:
Right. So I guess what I'm wondering is, is that -- so it sounds like it's associated with those projects. And then -- but going forward, does that -- so in other words, it's not a permanent change, I guess, if I'm gathering this correct. It's associated with the specific sort of project activity.
David Campbell:
That's right, Paul. We it reflects the activities that are underway and the application of the relevant rules that are in place. We're looking at and making sure we're following the right approach, if you think about being in an industry like ours sorry, that we're well benchmarked. We got a great support from our accounting team and our external auditors. So well-established approaches to take in that regard and best practices.
Paul Patterson:
Absolutely, I guess I was just wondering just sort of mechanically, does what period does that get sort of -- does it -- what period is that amortized over? I guess, I'm sort of wondering, I mean, is it just over the life of the plan? Or is it something that -- is it sort of an account that gets amortized over short just to sort of...
David Campbell:
Really depends on what -- it depends on what they're working on, if it's related to an outage. It will be different ligand in other words, and it gets down to every single project also probably won't be able to get through the 100 in this call, but it always relates to the work that's underway. And some are shorter, some are longer to put them in the nature of the work.
Paul Patterson:
Absolutely. Okay. That's great. And then just on the rate case. Percent to be allocated, I think, to the EKC as opposed to both utilities. I just was curious, is there a reason for that? Or is it just is it -- if I was correct in reading that, is there a reason why it wasn't allocated to both, I guess?
David Campbell:
We think it's the best fit for Evergy Cancer Central. So, it's really just where it lines up well with the integrated resource plan needs and overall mix and benefits -- it's well placed for that customer base, too. So, it fits well with EKCs, so that's what it's allocated is.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. And then finally, on the depreciation rate change. Was there -- I'm just wondering -- I mean I apologize. I read this a little while ago, but what was the driver again? Can you remind me about the request for a change in depreciation rates in the rate case? Is that -- is there a life issue there that's specific? Or is it just basically just updating the depreciation rate to follow?
David Campbell:
I do follow. I think the -- so we need a depreciation studies that typically happens in rate cases, especially if there's been a relatively long gap. So this reflects depreciation studies that we've done is been five years since the last rate review. So a pretty standard process. You're bringing an outside expert, you review that work. And so, it's I don't necessarily encourage all investors to read through the depreciation studies, but you're welcome to. It's in our publicly filed testimony, but it's -- I mean, I'll get inside. So, it's a rigorous review. You need to go through as part of the rate case and making sure you're getting the right level of depreciation, the right reachable lives for your long-lived assets, and that's the driver.
Operator:
Thank you. That concludes the Q&A session. I will turn the call over to David Campbell for closing remarks.
David Campbell:
Lisa, it was efficient. It's like the first round of the NFL Draft, which I hope everyone enjoys in a great city of Kansas City. We appreciate all of you joining us this morning. Thank you for your interest in Evergy, and have a great day. That concludes the call.
Operator:
Thank you, everyone, for joining you. Enjoy the rest of your day. Conference call has been concluded.
Operator:
Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Evergy’s fourth quarter 2022 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during this session, you will need to press star-one-one on your telephone. I would now like to hand the call over to Peter Flynn, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Peter Flynn:
Thank you Latif, and good morning everyone. Welcome to Evergy’s fourth quarter 2022 earnings conference call. Our webcast slides and supplemental financial information are available on our Investor Relations website at investors.evergy.com. Today’s discussion will include forward-looking information. Slide 2 and the disclosures in our SEC filings contain a list of some of the factors that could cause future results to differ materially from our expectations. They also include additional information on our non-GAAP financial measures. Joining us on today’s call are David Campbell, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Kirk Andrews, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. David will cover 2022 highlights, provide upcoming regulatory and legislative updates, and discuss our upcoming integrated resource plan. Kirk will cover our fourth quarter and full year results, retail sales trends, as well as our financial outlook for 2023. Other members of management are with us and will be available during the question and answer portion of the call. I will now turn the call over to David.
David Campbell:
Thanks Pete and good morning everyone. I’d be remiss if I did not start with the recognition of the Kansas City Chiefs and their victory in Super Bowl LVII. For football fans who have never been to Arrowhead Stadium, definitely add it to your list. Chiefs Kingdom is quite something to behold. I’ll begin on Slide 5, and I’ll start by thanking our employees who worked tirelessly throughout the year to advance our strategic objectives of affordability, reliability and sustainability. I’m proud and honored to lead the Evergy team. With respect to 2022 results, I am pleased to report that we had another solid year. We delivered adjusted earnings of $3.71 per share compared to $3.46 per share in 2021. These results reflect another year of strong execution relative to our objectives. We enter 2022 with a guidance range of $3.43 per share to $3.63 per share and our results came in $0.08 higher than the top end of the range. Kirk will discuss the drivers of our 2022 results in more detail. Last year, we executed on our capital plan to further improve reliability and resiliency, investing $2.2 billion in infrastructure to modernize our grid and replace aging equipment. I’d like to recognize the hard work of our regulatory staff as we completed our first two Missouri rate cases since the merger in 2018. We reached partial settlements on key economic issues at both Metro and Missouri West, delivering significant O&M savings back to our customers. These rate cases underscore our continued progress in maintaining affordability for our customers and increasing our regional rate competitiveness. Through November 2022, we’ve limited cumulative rate increases to 2.7% since 2017, well below the rate of increase for our regional peers and the prevailing rate of inflation over the five-year period. Slide 6 profiles the significant improvement that we’ve made in customer satisfaction, as measured by JD Power’s annual survey of utility customers. Since 2018, we’ve climbed 10 spots in JD Power’s midwest large utilities category, coming in at fifth out of 15 companies in 2022. Customer satisfaction remains at the forefront of our strategy. Safety tops our list of core values, and Slide 7 highlights the considerable progress we’ve made in limiting safety related events. Both OSHA recordables and DART cases have declined by over 50% since 2018. Promoting a culture of safety and focusing on every employee going home safely every day are paramount to our success as a company. On Slide 8, we introduce our 2023 GAAP and adjusted EPS guidance of $3.55 per share to $3.75 per share. We know the importance of consistent execution and we recognize that 2023 falls short of the midpoint relative to our long term targets, reflecting regulatory lag in our Kansas jurisdiction and our commitment to a five-year rate case stay out as part of the merger, but we remain confident in our ability to deliver annual 6% to 8% adjusted EPS growth through 2025 off of the 2021 baseline, and we are reaffirming that target today. Moving to our five-year capital plan on Slide 9, we have updated and extended our forecast through 2027. Our new five-year investment plan totals $11.6 billion from 2023 to 2027, which represents a $900 million increase relative to our 2022 to 2026 forecast, or 9%. Nearly 60% of our planned investment is targeted towards transmission and distribution projects as we continue to modernize our grid to improve reliability and enhance resiliency for our customers. By replacing aging equipment and investing in smart grid technologies, we’ll also enable further efficiency gains in serving our customers, which has been a hallmark of Evergy’s strategy over the last five years. Slide 10 profiles our progress in driving cost savings. Despite historically high inflation in 2022, we held adjusted O&M flat relative to 2021, representing $232 million in cumulative savings since 2018, or 18%. The work is not done yet and we remain laser-focused on our target of an additional 11% reduction in adjusted O&M through 2025. As part of this effort, the company implemented a voluntary retirement program in the fall of 2022 which, combined with ordinary course retirements and attrition, resulted in an 8.5% reduction in the size of the organization by year end. I can’t say enough about the hard work of the Evergy team in delivering against and exceeding the savings for customers that were promised as part of the merger that formed our company. As shown on Slide 11, Evergy has been able to limit cumulative rate increases to 2.7% since 2017 based on the latest available data from the EIA which runs through November 2022. This compares favorably to our regional peer states and the prevailing rate of inflation over the same time frame. Advancing and improving regional rate competitiveness are priorities in our long term plan and are front of mind for many of our stakeholders, and that’s exactly what we have accomplished over the past five years. Moving to Slide 12, I’ll provide an update on regulatory and legislative priorities, beginning with our rate case filings in Kansas. In mid-April, we’ll file our first rate cases at Kansas Central and Kansas Metro since completion of the Evergy merger in 2018. We believe these rate reviews will be relatively straightforward, requesting recovery and return on our grid modernization and infrastructure investments over the past five years and passing on the benefits of the cost savings we’ve achieved to our customers. We look forward to working with our regulators and stakeholders to achieve a constructive outcome for our Kansas customers and communities. In Missouri this year, we anticipate a quieter legislative session relative to last year, which saw the extension and amendment of PISA, further supporting the constructive regulatory environment in the state. On the regulatory front, we have open dockets for the approval of an operating certificate of convenience and necessity for our acquisition of Persimmon Creek Wind Farm, as well as securitization of Winter Storm Uri costs incurred at Missouri West. Initial post-hearing briefs are doing on March 6 in the Persimmon Creek docket with an order requested by April 6. We firmly believe Persimmon Creek is the lowest cost solution to serve Missouri West customers consistent with the IRP preferred plan, and we’ll continue to work collaboratively with our regulators to secure the necessary approvals. The Missouri Public Service Commission’s approval of our request to securitize extraordinary costs from Winter Storm Uri was appealed to the Missouri Court of Appeals by the Office of Public Counsel in early January. OPC’s initial briefs are due by early April, 90 days following the appeal date. We believe the Commission’s decision to approve our request is well supported by the record. While we cannot complete our securitization financing until the appeal plays out, incremental carrying costs incurred prior to approval will ultimately be recovered when we issue the debt. The last item on the regulatory agenda that I’ll reference is the expected June filing of our annual integrated resource plan updates in both Kansas and Missouri, which I’ll cover more as you turn to Slide 13. The planning process for our IRP filings is well underway as we continue to assess the beneficial impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act on our generation resource planning. The longer term certainty the IRA provides around renewable energy tax credits will enhance our ability to tap the abundant renewables potential in our region and deliver savings to our customers by replacing higher cost energy. We expect our Wolf Creek nuclear plan to be eligible for the IRA’s nuclear production tax credit, the benefits of which will accrue to our customers in years with low realized prices for Wolf Creek. In addition to these IRA tailwinds, we’ll be incorporating updated commodity projections, construction costs, and higher capacity requirements in the southwest power pool into the annual update. We are excited to advance our integrated resource plans to deliver additional benefits to our customers. I’ll conclude my remarks with Slide 14, which summarizes the Evergy value proposition. The left side of the page covers the core tenets of our strategy to advance affordability, reliability and sustainability through a relentless focus on our customers, supported by stakeholder collaboration, sustainable investments, and financial and operational excellence. The right-hand features what we believe are particularly attractive and distinctive features for Evergy, given our business mix and geographic location. We are excited about the opportunities for our company and we are committed to the sustained effort required to deliver against our high performance objectives. I’ll now turn the call over to Kirk.
Kirk Andrews:
Thanks David, good morning everyone. I’ll start with the results for the quarter on Slide 16. For the fourth quarter of 2022, Evergy delivered adjusted earnings of $68.6 million or $0.30 per share, compared to $32.9 million or $0.14 per share in the fourth quarter of 2021. As shown on this slide, the year-over-year increase in fourth quarter EPS was driven by the following
Operator:
[Operator instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Michael Sullivan of Wolfe Research. Your question please, Michael.
Michael Sullivan:
Hey everyone, good morning.
David Campbell:
Good morning.
Michael Sullivan:
Hey David. Maybe just wanted to start with the reaffirmation of the 6% to 8% CAGR through 2025. Can you maybe just at a high level talk to some of the drivers that get that back on track from 2023, the guidance you gave today?
David Campbell:
You bet, thanks Michael. We acknowledge, as I noted in my remarks, that we had some headwinds in 2023 and were short of the midpoint, but we’re reaffirming our belief we can be back in that 6% to 8% range, and the main driver--I’d cite two factors, but the biggest driver is we’re in a peak regulatory lag year, which impacts Kansas Central in particular. As you know, there are some elements of lag in our Kansas jurisdiction and it’s been five years since our last rate case, so as we advance the rate case this year and rates go into effect at year end, that will help address the under-earning that we’re having on many investments that we’ve made over the past five years, and that’s the biggest factor that helps get us back on track. We’re sort of in the peak lag year this year, and we’ve been taking good steps to overcome that lag in ’21 and ’22, so we’re pleased with the results, we were able to offset it. We had some interest rate headwinds and some impacts from Missouri that we didn’t fully offset for this year, but we have gone through our model in detail and we absolutely are reaffirming our commitment to ’24 and ’25. The second factor is well known, and that’s the ongoing advancement of cost savings. We’re going to be delivering significant cost savings in this rate case, the cumulative impact of savings since 2018, but we have ongoing opportunities ahead of us and between those two levers primarily is how we’re going to stay on track with respect to our 6% to 8% annual earnings growth.
Michael Sullivan:
Okay, that’s very helpful. Maybe just on that, you mentioned the regulatory lag. On the Metro side, I think this was alluded to in the remarks, but the fact that you hit the sharing this year, I take it that was mostly weather? Was that under-earning too maybe adjusted for weather, or just give us a feel for where Metro is at into this rate filing?
David Campbell:
Yes, it partly relates to the nature of the jurisdiction. Metro has--actually has higher prices but it’s got a level of investment, it’s a much more dense urban system and we’ve been doing a lot of systematic replacement across our much bigger and broader Kansas Central service territory. The biggest factor in Metro is weather and the impacts in 2022, and obviously reflects the relative level investment. Even in a normalized weather, we’re close to earning our authorized return in Metro, but we’re well short of it in Central, so it’s just different characteristics of those two jurisdictions. Central is also a lot bigger overall, so a bigger impact on results, but the earnings sharing was a reflection of weather impacts in particular in 2022 on the Metro jurisdiction.
Michael Sullivan:
Okay, great. Then just last one from me, can you maybe just give us a sense of where things are at and where you expect them to go in terms of some of the bills pending at the Kansas legislature, looking at things like appointed commissions and such?
David Campbell:
Sure, so there are multiple bills in flight in Kansas, pretty active session with respect to utility bills. The one that was passed out of committee but has been--well, I don’t want to get into too much process detail, so the expectation--you know, our expectation is that there will be robust discussion around potential election of commissioners, we don’t think that makes sense as a policy approach, and that probably has less broad support so we don’t think that that’s going to advance, but there will continue to be good discussion around that. There have been bills advanced relating to right of first refusal for a transmission project which we think could really benefit customers in terms of predictability, regulatory oversight, and consistency of approach and process. There is a bill that has been advanced related to our transmission delivery charge that is subject to ongoing discussion. It was passed out of committee but it was--the process term is called blessed by the speaker, so it has not been voted on by the full house since--in discussions around that, and if it does end up going to the full house, then of course it’d go over to the senate. I think there will be ongoing discussions in Kansas, unclear if something will ultimately pass this year, but we’re working closely with stakeholders and we think those discussions are going constructively.
Michael Sullivan:
Great, thanks for all the color.
David Campbell:
You bet, thank you Michael.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Shahriar Pourreza of Guggenheim. Please go ahead, Shahriar.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Hey, good morning guys.
David Campbell:
Morning Shahriar.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Just on the cases in Kansas, which I guess will be filed between now and your next update, you’ve got the Kansas Central fuel balance to recover starting in April for two years, you’ve got, I guess, some O&M give-back since the last case and the merger. How should we think about the holistic targets here for rate increases with all these puts and takes at play?
David Campbell:
It’s a great question, Shahriar, because there are a number of elements that will go through the rate case, a number of elements that will not. For example, you referenced the Uri fuel cost recovery - that’s about $125 million that we’ll recover over two years. KanCentral was well insulated from Uri costs relative to most jurisdictions in our region because it’s not as gas heavy, so a pretty modest amount in total, though still an amount to recover. That has already been approved through regulatory process, that’s not going to be addressed in the rate cases. The rate cases will focus on the investments that we’ve made since our last case, and that will be distribution, generation, general plant, transmission, KanCentral was reviewed at FERC so it will not be in the rate case, but of course our O&M savings will be part of the rate case. We put out estimates as part of our various workshops with the commission what the rate impacts will be. Now, our estimates of rate impacts were through 2024 and then--you know, [indiscernible] December, we’re through 2026 because it was a five-year plan, but in general we’ve always described that we’re targeting rate increases at our--in line with or below the annual rate of inflation. Now, it’s been five years since the last rate case, so it’s going to be a cumulative increase, but our stakeholder well understand that that will be reflecting our cumulative investments over that time frame. Given the very high inflation in 2022, we’re obviously optimistic we’ll be able to be under--well under inflation, given how high it was broadly [indiscernible]. We’ve been able to describe our investment plans as well as our cost reduction programs in a lot of detail, so it’s not going to be a lot of surprises because we had those workshops about our capital plans in 2020 and through May of ’21, and then again in December of last year, so. They will still be lively cases - they always are, it’s the first one in five years, but we do think it’s pretty straightforward, focused on reviewing our investments, the categories I mentioned, and the cost savings that we’ve delivered, and there will be the usual discussion around ROE of course and elements like that. Hopefully that covers the question, Shahriar.
Shahriar Pourreza:
No, it does, it does. That’s helpful, thank you for that. I want to just slightly tweak the prior caller’s question here. It’s good to see the capex roll to ’27, but I’m just thinking about even directionally, the profile of the EPS growth beyond the ’25 guide. The latest capex gets you to around 6% implied rate base growth. Is there more to squeeze on the O&M side or is more dependent on the Kansas case and the IRP update? I guess put differently, what are the drivers that would push you in and out of your current 6% to 8% guide as we look ahead?
David Campbell:
It’s a great question, Shahriar, and we’re not introducing 2026 or beyond guidance today, as you know, but the drivers are, as you know, over time we’re going to be really related to rate based growth, how we fund that, and we’ve got a strong balance sheet to support our investments, and of course our ongoing cost savings. Now we’ve consistently, really since the STP was first introduced, have laid out cost targets consistent with what we’ve shown through 2025. We think that we’ve got a good system and our employees do a terrific job driving efficiency in our business. The kind of step function changes in costs that we have are not going to be sustainable over the long term, but annual productivity gains and seeking to drive those are certainly going to be important. As you noted, it’s going to be rate base growth, how we fund it and the O&M cost savings. We’re going to update our IRP this year, that’s going to have some impacts on our plans with respect to renewables. As I mentioned, the southwest power pool is getting tighter both because of incremental demand but also because of a change in how reserve margins are calculated and an increase in reserve margin requirements, so capacity needs are higher. Demand trends have been strong, we’ll start seeing impacts from electrification as well as we get to the latter part of the decade, so a lot of moving parts but, like other utilities, a lot of it comes down the fundamental drivers of rate base growth, demand growth, how you fund it, and O&M. We feel good about those drivers in our service territory and we look forward to providing the update once we’ve gotten through the IRP update, as well as our rate cases.
Shahriar Pourreza:
I guess--not to paraphrase what you’re saying, but put all that together, you feel okay about tightening up that delta between rate base growth and EPS growth in time?
David Campbell:
We like the drivers in our service territory and we know--you know, those--we’re certainly confident in our range through 2025, the 68%, and the long term drivers, we like the set-up in our territory and we look forward to going through 2026 and beyond when we have those details to share.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Okay, great. Thank you guys, I appreciate it. Thanks.
David Campbell:
Thanks Shahriar.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Nicholas Campanella of Credit Suisse. Your question please, Nicholas.
Nicholas Campanella:
Hey, good morning everyone. Thanks for taking my questions today. I wanted to just follow up on the IRP because absolutely a focus here. When you think about the opportunity set in front of you and the fact that you’re now showing a rate base CAGR of 6% out to ’27, does the IRP extend that 6% or could it potentially increase it? Just trying to understand the magnitude of what’s to come, thanks.
David Campbell:
I feel like I’m your parents, calling you Nicholas. Nick, that’s a great question. The IRP update is in process. We include our expectations for new generation in our forward capex plans. There’s been a slight shift in our expectations regarding the mix of PPAs in renewables. We’ve got a very heavy weighting towards PPAs right now in our renewables and we think it’s beneficial for customers to have a balance, but in Kansas we’ve shifted to a two-thirds assumption of owned and one-third assumption of PPA, so that’s something that will play out in terms of what happens with the actual RFPs that we run and what’s going to be most competitive and what offers the most benefits for customers. That’s sort of an element no matter what’s in the IRP. I do think there’s some factors, Nick, that could drive more attractive opportunities for customers in the IRP, and those relate to--you know, we now have significant benefits in the IRA that we didn’t have modeled in the IRP last year. Those are not only sizeable but we know that they’re going to be in place for a period of time. That clearly aids the relative cost of new renewables, which are pretty cost effective in our region, and relative to energy provided from fossil resources. We’ve got a lot of coal and the traditional ability to drive lower cost for customers by replacing high variable costs, high fuel cost generation with renewables is going to--I think the IRP will reflect that. Now, the wildcard is going to be what are construction costs. My personal view is we may still be facing some bottlenecks that are driving higher cost for construction for renewables, but we’ve seen in the cycles over time that those do--those constraints are lifted and generally the supply responds robustly, and that helps driven down cost over time. I think that there are going to be opportunities given the amount of energy we still produce at a relatively high variable and high fuel costs and the tailwinds from the IRA that are going to benefit-you know, we’ll have incremental opportunities for renewables, but we’ll have to see how the math plays out. It may be that math is more compelling once we see construction costs, where they are and where they’re trending. The other piece is with capacity requirements tighter, we’re going to make sure--and solar is weighted more heavily towards capacity, gas peakers or potentially you could see [indiscernible] capacity, with growth like what we’re seeing in Panasonic and with Meta coming in, there’s also going to be a growth dynamic that may help drive some incremental resource needs too, and that are weighted more towards capacity requirements. That’s a long answer to your question, but hopefully that makes sense. Net-net, I do think there could be some tailwinds in the IRP.
Nicholas Campanella:
Okay, thanks for that. I guess just on the financing plan, I’m just trying to understand, is it your intention to not do any equity past the ’25 time frame, but now that you have this capex plan out to ’27, just wondering how to fund that.
Kirk Andrews:
Hey Nick, it’s Kirk. Certainly as we’ve reiterated a number of times through our 6% to 8% growth rate through 2025, there is no new equity in that particular plan. As you’ll see, we came out of 2022, as David said earlier, with a strong balance sheet. We’re ahead of our targets, we’ve got strong robust free cash flow, we’re not a current taxpayer so we translate net income very efficiently into operating cash flows, which gives us a pretty good stable of equity to help supplement financing with debt, keep the balance sheet in line. Certainly expect that to be the case through 2025. That will continue because we don’t expect to be a cash taxpayer until towards the end of the decade, so we’re going to look to balance those two objectives. We’ll look at the IRP obviously and the impact on the capital expenditure plan, but our goal is to successfully balance our objective to maintain that long term growth rate as robustly as we can, and that obviously means being prudent about issuing equity while at the same time maintaining those balance sheet objectives. But fortunately with the combination of those robust cash flows and the foundation we’ve come out of 2022, we feel good about where those balance sheets are and we’ll continue to focus on it. As we get through the rate case in Kansas and update the IRP, we’ll have more specifics about the financing plans long term, but again robust cash flow and our tax shield is a tailwind for us as we move forward, even beyond ’25.
Nicholas Campanella:
Appreciate that color, thanks everyone. I’ll take Nick or Nicholas any day.
David Campbell:
Thanks Nick.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Durgesh Chopra of Evercore. Please go ahead, Durgesh.
Durgesh Chopra:
Hey, good morning team. Thanks for taking my questions.
David Campbell:
Morning.
Durgesh Chopra:
Good morning David. You’ve answered all of my other questions. Maybe just hit on the PPA opportunity that you’ve discussed in the past and what is the opportunity set there for perhaps 2023 and then longer term.
Kirk Andrews:
Yes, sure Durgesh, it’s Kirk. Continuing to focus on that, as we talked about in 2022. I and particularly we were disappointed we weren’t able to bring one of those over the finish line despite a number of engagements with various counterparties. That continues to be the case. As I’m sure you’re well aware, there have been a number of renewable portfolios out in the marketplace, there continue to be. Those renewable portfolios, as often has been the case, continues to be the case going forward, include some of our PPA counterparties, so we are continuing to be involved in that process, and I think with the clarity that’s provided by the IRA, that’s given us a little bit better foundation for negotiating that. I don’t expect that if we get one of those done, and we’re certainly focused on doing it, I think it’s certainly possible in 2023. I don’t expect that to be a major driver - as I said before, we’d probably get at least one done because, going back to Nick’s question previously, we want to maintain the strength of our balance sheet as well as stay out of the equity markets as long as we can to maintain that growth rate, but we do have the capacity to get one of those done and I think it would be additive. It’s not in our capital expenditure plan, but certainly as a proof of concept of moving that forward, I think the opportunities are abundant and with a lot of the renewable sales out in the market right now, there are opportunities to participate and get that done. More updates to come, can’t be more definitive than that, but certainly we’ve got a growing backlog and an opportunity set to look at with that 4,400 megawatts--or excuse me, 3,800 megawatts of PPA.
Durgesh Chopra:
Got it, thank you. Just to be clear, the recovery process or the return on that 4 gigawatts’ worth of opportunity, is that through--do you have to go through rate cases or get approvals as you buy out those PPA opportunities, or how does that actually work?
Kirk Andrews:
We would, yes, in certain cases. Especially in Kansas, we can pursue that through a predetermination-type process, but yes, ultimately we’d have to pursue both prudency and prosecuting that into a rate case, and obviously in the case of a simple buy-in, we’d look to do that to more or less replace the pass-through of what is existing PPA with a rate base investment that’s neutral, if not beneficial to our rate base.
Durgesh Chopra:
Got it. Thanks so much, I appreciate it, Kirk.
Kirk Andrews:
You bet.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Angie Storozynski of Seaport. Your question please, Angie.
Angie Storozynski:
Thank you. Just a really quick question. You have $0.21 of a drag in interest expense, and I’m just wondering--you know, I’m assuming that some of it gets trued up in the upcoming Kansas rate cases, so if I look forward, roughly how much of it would persist beyond this rate case cycle?
Kirk Andrews:
That’s obviously a year-over-year increase, and I think the better way to think about that, you know, ’22 going into ’23, obviously ’22 was a little bit a tale of two rates, for lack of a more elegant way of putting it. We saw increasing rates more in the back half of the year, and that’s obviously a full year effect year-over-year. You are correct - we do have a number of items in that interest rate sensitivity we showed you before, better at the utility, so we would expect some of that, especially some of those pollution control bonds that you see there, there is a portion of those at Kansas Central, there’s at least half of those at Metro, and we’d also look--some of that interest rate exposure is obviously our short term interest rate. Now, a lot of that gets taken up in our AFUDC mechanism, but as we look to move from our construction work in process to plant and service, we’ll look at that short term rates, which are obviously higher given the backwardation of the curve, and term some of that out. I would expect if we do that in 2023, we will do that timed--certainly in Kansas, that will probably take place in the context of our rate case, so a lot of that will get trued up at the end of the day.
Angie Storozynski:
Meaning the drag--so the year-over-year drag, I mean, there shouldn’t be any, right, so that should be actually a benefit for year-over-year math for ’24, right?
Kirk Andrews:
Yes.
Angie Storozynski:
Okay.
Kirk Andrews:
I think the better way to think about that is we’ve just rolled from a partial year to a current year, so now we’re kind of at current rates in that regard, so I would not--we don’t see a step function going forward into yet another increase in rates over time, and it’s really just the increasing debt rather than increasing rate exposure at the end of the day, thinking about moving from ’23 and forward.
Angie Storozynski:
Awesome, that’s all I have. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Paul Patterson of Glenrock Associates. Please go ahead, Paul.
Paul Patterson:
Good morning guys.
David Campbell:
Morning Paul.
Paul Patterson:
On the IRA and Wolf Creek, I was wondering if you could give us a flavor for what the potential quantification could be and if that immediately goes to ratepayers or if there might be some sort of positive rate lag. How should we think about that?
David Campbell:
Paul, it’s going to be fascinating as the rules come out around it. The first thing to note is that the eligibility will start in 2024, but it is an impact that will flow directly to our customers so it will not have an earnings impact. Now, I think anything that helps with respect to customer cost is a good thing. Regional rate competitiveness and affordability are critically important for us, so there’s a tangible benefit that we’re really excited about as well. In terms of the mechanism, it will be interesting to see how the rules operate. Presumably since it’s based on yearly realized prices, that may be assessed on a monthly basis, it may be assessed in a back cast at the end of the year, it may be based on day-ahead markets - that probably makes more sense rather than real time, but all that is yet to be seen. But the net-net is if you went back a couple years, this wouldn’t have been true in ’22 given the high commodity prices, but if you look back at ’21 and ’20 and ’19 and ’18, the realized prices at Wolf Creek were below the thresholds that are laid out in the IRA for eligibility for a PTC, and it wouldn’t be the full $15 a megawatt hour in all years but, depending on what the go-forward pricing is, it could be up to $15 a megawatt hour for a 1,200 megawatt nuclear unit, so it’s a sizeable potential benefit for customers. But the mechanism, we believe that’s going to flow directly through the fuel clause, which is again very important but not an earnings driver. But it will be interesting to see as the rules come out and it starts in ’24.
Paul Patterson:
Great, then with respect to Persimmon, which you guys made a pretty strong argument for, staff does seem to be--it’s a [indiscernible] case, as you guys know. Is there any possibility for a settlement?
David Campbell:
Well, we had hearings this week and obviously we’ve been in discussions with staff in advance of the hearings, so I do think it’s in the commission’s hands at this point. We’re always--as I mentioned, we’re always seeing the work constructively towards approval, we think it is clearly a great option. It’s a well-placed option that drives the best overall benefits for our customers in terms of costs, in our view, and so we think we’ve got compelling arguments for adding it. If we can settle, it’d be great, but it’s in the commission’s hands given that it’s likely to be an issue the commission resolves.
Paul Patterson:
Okay, great. Then with respect to the ROFR bill, I’m sure you guys are familiar with the Fifth Circuit ruling, I guess dealing with the Texas law and NextEra. I’m wondering, is there anything different about this law versus that, or how should we think about the Fifth Circuit ruling, and I’m sure it will be appealed to the Supreme Court or whatever, but how should we think about how that law may or may not interact with that court ruling?
David Campbell:
It’s a good question. I was actually in Texas at the time the Texas law was passed, so it has some unique elements reflecting the unique elements of the Texas market. There are ROFRs in place - right of first refusals in place in dozens of jurisdictions around the U.S., and they’ve stood the test of time in those markets and been beneficial and remain in place. Most of our neighbors have them, most of the states in the SPP have them, so we’ll track, it may be narrow to the Texas law, it may not. We don’t have ROFR in place in Kansas and Missouri, so one step at a time, but I do think the ROFRs that are in place across multiple states, they’ve been resilient. We’ll obviously have to follow how those cases go, but some unique features, as you know, in that Texas law.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. Then just finally on transmission, there a number of FERC proceedings, they seem rather small to me but there are a number of them, I guess, and they’re very technical - frankly, over my head to some degree in terms of the formulas and what have you. How should we think about just cumulatively those proceedings and how you feel about any potential exposure there, or not there, if you follow me?
David Campbell:
I do, and we’ve resolved a couple proceedings, and one was ruled on by the FERC last year, so I think that we--our go-forward guidance reflects our view of the impact of the overall regulatory framework, is probably the easiest way to frame it. Some of it is complicated, but probably the most complicated one that was pending, because it related to a formula that was in the tariff that was under review, and so we had to follow the tariff but obviously when you get a formula that’s related to the transmission delivery charge, and the transmission formula rates to FERC level, and that was resolved last year. Our forward guidance that we’ve discussed reflects the impacts of that case. There are a lot of technical ones. I guess the easiest way to describe it is that we--our view of their impact is reflected in our forward plan.
Paul Patterson:
Okay, thanks so much and have a great one.
David Campbell:
Thank you, you too.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ashar Khan of Verition. Please go ahead, Ashar.
Ashar Khan:
Hi David. I think all my questions have been answered, but if I can just--I was just trying to sum up, if I may, so you said you’re going to have another $100 million of lower savings between now and 2025, if I see the chart, and if I’m right, that’s nearly about $0.40 or $0.45, so half of them came this year, if I’m right, in 2023, because you are showing an O&M decrease or benefit of $0.20. Is it fair that another $0.20, $0.25 is left in the next two years, and the other bridge is going to be, of course, transmission earnings and then the Kansas case next year, and should we factor in another Missouri case that will have some impact for 2025?
David Campbell:
I’ll ask Kirk to comment on the O&M piece, but in general you can do the--we’ve got about 230 million shares, so you can calculate how much O&M savings we’ve got in the next year. I think it’s $50 million to $60 million range, so it’d be remainder that would come through ’25, and Kirk can correct me. We do expect rate cases in the every-other-year time frame, so that would imply--you know, we haven’t finalized our plans, but you are correct, that would mean a 2024 Missouri rate case, so I think you’ve got a good sense for the drivers. Kirk, anything you’d add?
Kirk Andrews:
On the O&M front, just to clarify that you’re right - you know, if I incorporate the $60 million, and that’s roughly what that ’22 to ’23 reduction in O&M equates to, I think I even mentioned that when I was going through the slides, that puts us--I think we came out of ’22, and you can infer--you can go through our disclosures, about $1.74 billion of non-fuel O&M in ’22, so that means with that $60 million of savings, you’re at $1.14 billion. We’ve put a target out there, our ’25 target is 960, so that gives you about $54 million between--you know, from 2023 to 2025, over that period of time, so you’re right, that round to about $0.20 prospectively once you get outside of ’23, just to clarify that.
Ashar Khan:
Okay. Then if I can just end up, and I know I don’t want to front run this because you have been meeting your objectives [indiscernible], but when will you do a revise, right, because right now the CAGR is based on 2020 time. Is that something which will happen a year from now or is that a 2025 exercise?
David Campbell:
Yes, it’s likely to be a year from now, Ashar. We’re going to have the integrated resource plan update and we’ll get to the Kansas rate case, so I think that that’s going to be most informative for investors. Again, we think the Kansas rate case is pretty straightforward, but a lot of eyes are going to be on that rate case, so I think the most likely time frame forward is going to be in the Q4 call about a year from now, which I hope to open with a celebration of another Chiefs Super Bowl.
Ashar Khan:
Okay, that’s correct, we’re hoping for that too. Thank you so much, so kind of you. Have a nice weekend.
David Campbell:
Thanks Ashar.
Operator:
Thank you. I would now like to turn the conference back to David Campbell for closing remarks. Sir?
David Campbell:
All right, thanks Latif. For everyone on the call or reading later, thank you for your time this morning and thank you for your interest in Evergy. Have a great day.
Operator:
This concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Third Quarter 2022 Evergy Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Lori Wright, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer. Please go ahead.
Lori Wright:
Thank you, Elizabeth. Good morning everyone and welcome to Evergy's third quarter call. Thank you for joining us this morning. Today's discussion will include forward-looking information. Slide 2 and the disclosure in our SEC filings contain a list of some of the factors that could cause future results to differ materially from our expectations and include additional information on non-GAAP financial measures. The releases issued this morning, along with today's webcast slides and supplemental financial information for the quarter, are available on the main page of our Web site at investors.evergy.com. On the call today, we have David Campbell, Evergy's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Kirk Andrews, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. David will cover our third quarter highlights, provide an update on ongoing and upcoming regulatory proceedings and our recent sales trends as well as an update on our resource planning and the Inflation Reduction Act. Kirk will cover in more detail the third quarter and year-to-date results and our financial outlook for the remainder of the year. Other members of management are with us and will be available during the question-and-answer portion of the call. I will now turn the call over to David.
David Campbell:
Thanks, Lori, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin on Slide 5, and I'm pleased to report that we had another solid quarter as we delivered adjusted earnings of $2.01 per share compared to $1.97 per share in 2021. The increase in adjusted earnings over last year was driven primarily by favorable demand, above normal weather and higher transmission margin, partially offset by higher D&A and interest expense. For year-to-date, September 30, adjusted earnings were $3.43 per share compared to $3.35 per share a year ago. With these strong results, we are raising the midpoint of our guidance from $3.53 per share to $3.58 per share and revising our adjusted EPS guidance range to $3.53 to $3.63 per share from $3.43 to $3.63 per share. Kirk will detail the drivers of our third quarter performance and upward guidance revision. I would also like to call out and compliment the strong work of the entire Evergy team in providing safe and reliable power to our customers and communities through a hot summer and early fall. In particular, I'll call out our team's strong safety performance with a 66% reduction in DART events and a 62% reduction in OSHA recordables compared to the first nine months of 2021. On August 9, we announced an agreement to acquire Persimmon Creek Wind Farm, a 199 megawatt operating wind farm in western Oklahoma, for $250 million. This investment satisfies two thirds of our planned 300 megawatts of renewable additions in 2024. Persimmon Creek will deliver low cost power to our Missouri West customers, subject to approval from Missouri Public Service Commission, and supports our carbon reduction and net zero emission targets. We also announced the 7% increase in our quarterly dividend to $0.6125 per share, or $2.45 per share on an annualized basis. This increase is consistent with our recent growth trajectory and long-term targets. We remain laser focused on executing our plan and advancing our strategic objectives of affordability, reliability and sustainability in the context of historically volatile economic conditions and inflation. We remain confident in our long-term plan and we are reaffirming our target annual EPS growth rate of 6% to 8% from 2021 to 2025. Now moving to Slide 6, and Missouri. We are pleased to reach partial stipulations and agreements with our stakeholders in the pending Metro and Missouri West rate cases, which we expect will provide a balanced outcome for customers and shareholders. The approved agreements call for 67.5 million revenue increase across our Missouri jurisdictions. Not all the relevant details are public in the black-box settlement, but I'll highlight the 8.25% pre-tax rate of return for plant-in-service accounting, or PISA, as a helpful data point, as we plan go-forward investments. While the settlement resolved most of the key economic issues, there are several items that the Missouri Commission will resolve in the coming weeks. Revised rates will go into effect on December 6. We're pleased that we are able to find common ground with our stakeholders in these settlements. We continue to view Missouri as a very attractive jurisdiction to invest in as evidenced by the rate case and the constructive extension and changes to the PISA legislation that were enacted earlier this year. Turning to Slide 7. I'll provide a summary of other key regulatory and legislative milestones and ongoing constructive developments in both Kansas and Missouri. I'm happy to report the Missouri Commission issued a financing order in October that approved our request to recover and securitize approximately 300 million of Winter Storm Uri costs at our Missouri West jurisdiction. We expect to go to market in the first half of 2023 to complete this financing. For the Persimmon Creek acquisition, we filed for a Certificate of Convenience and Necessity or CCN in August. We expect this investment to qualify for PISA treatment at our Missouri West restriction. Missouri Commission staff will issue its recommendation by November 18, and we requested approval by year end. On the other side of the state line, the Kansas Corporation Commission issued an order in mid September that determined our 2022 capital investment plan meets the requirements of the capital investment plan framework. Consistent with prior years, the Commission also requested Evergy attend a workshop to explain the impact of the proposed capital spending and to answer questions for the commissioners, KCC staff and the Citizens' Utility Ratepayer Board, or CURB. The workshop will take place on December 13. We look forward to the opportunity to highlight the benefits of our planned transmission and distribution investments in a system with a lot of older infrastructure, the addition of renewables consistent with our integrated resource plan, the benefits of which are now further enhanced by the federal subsidies in the IRA, as well as upgrades to technology and customer service platforms that will help us to serve customers more effectively and efficiently. In addition, we'll cover our ongoing progress in advancing the regional rate competitiveness with Evergy's system, which is a core element of our strategic focus on affordability. Also in Kansas, preparation is underway for our 2023 rate cases, which we will file in late April. This will be our first request for new base rates in Kansas since we formed Evergy in 2018. Key drivers of the case will include return on equity, capital structure, review of our reliability and efficiency focused distribution, customer and technology infrastructure investments since our last rate case, as well as passing on the significant O&M savings we've generated for customers since the completion of the merger. We look forward to working constructively with our regulators and stakeholders just as we have in multiple forms over the past few years in Kansas to advance the 2023 rate cases and deliver against our strategic objectives of ensuring affordability, reliability and sustainability for our Kansas customers and communities. Turning to Slide 8, I'll review our demand growth and comment on economic trends and developments. For the third quarter, total weather-normalized retail demand increased by approximately 1.7% driven by a robust increase in industrial demand for the chemical and oil and gas sectors. Year-to-date, weather-normalized demand is up approximately 2%. Total demand is up 2.4% for the quarter and approximately 3% for the year. While 2021 was warmer than average, temperatures were even higher in the third quarter of 2022. Our regional economy has remained healthy as the unemployment rate in both Kansas and Missouri continues to track below the national average. We're also excited about the ongoing growth that we've seen as reflected in the numbers I just shared as well as the large product announcements such as Metis data center and Panasonic's new electric vehicle battery manufacturing plant. I'll conclude my remarks with a few comments on the Inflation Reduction Act, or IRA, on Slide 9. There's no question that the IRA is a very consequential piece of legislation. We are assessing the key impacts of the IRA through the economic and customer affordability lenses, as the bill provides longer term certainty and visibility for significant renewable energy tax credits and emerging technologies. This economic support will further enhance our ability to take advantage of the abundant renewable potential of our region, and deliver savings to our customers by replacing energy produced from resources with higher fuel and O&M costs. We also expect the Wolf Creek nuclear plant to be eligible for the IRA's nuclear production tax credit, which will have a beneficial impact for customer bills in years with low realized prices for Wolf Creek. We expect to provide an update on our future renewable generation plans by mid 2023 when we file a revised annual integrated resource plans in Kansas and Missouri. This update will incorporate the impacts of the IRA, updated commodity projections and higher capacity requirements in the Southwest power pool. We are excited to advance a program that will further enhance our affordability, reliability and sustainability goals. I will now turn the call over to Kirk.
Kirkland Andrews:
Thanks, David, and good morning, everyone. I'll start with the results for the quarter on Slide 11. But before I turn to the drivers behind our third quarter adjusted EPS, I'd like to summarize one item in our GAAP results for the quarter related to the deferral of certain revenues from our retired Sibley coal plant in Missouri. Although rate treatment for Sibley is among the items the Missouri Public Service Commission will resolve in the coming weeks, a decision by the Commission issued in August related to a plant retirement by another Missouri utility established a regulatory precedent which led us to change the accounting for Sibley. Since retiring Sibley in 2018, we've collected approximately 3.1 million in revenues each quarter associated with the return on the Sibley rate base. Based on the regulatory precedent in the third quarter, we deferred the cumulative amount of these revenues collected in rates since the plant retirement totaling 47.5 million to a regulatory liability with a corresponding reduction to operating revenues in the quarter. In order to allow our adjusted EPS to reflect the impact of the accounting change in the periods in which revenues were collected, we've excluded the amount of the deferral associated with the revenues collected prior to the third quarter and prior to 2022 from our third quarter and year-to-date adjusted EPS, respectively. As a result, within the quarter and year-to-date, the net impact of the change in Sibley accounting reflected in our adjusted EPS was approximately $0.01 for the quarter and $0.03 year-to-date. For comparative purposes, we've also recast the adjusted EPS for 2021 to reflect the $0.01 per quarter impact. Notwithstanding this change in accounting, we remain confident that the retirement of Sibley was prudent as reflected in the Commission order in the Missouri West securitization proceeding, which addressed prudence. As such, we continue to believe the inclusion of ongoing return on rate base for Sibley in our general rate case filing was appropriate. Although the ultimate rate treatment of Sibley including the ongoing return on rate base remains to be decided upon by the Commission and this decision may have an impact on future revenues, the third quarter deferral of revenues in and of itself does not impact our expected earnings going forward. For the third quarter of 2022, Evergy delivered adjusted earnings of 462 million or $2.01 per share compared to 452 million or $1.97 per share in the third quarter of 2021. The year-over-year increase in third quarter EPS was driven by the following. First, a 3% increase in cooling degree days drove a $0.03 increase in EPS compared to third quarter '21. Adjusting for the warmer than normal weather experienced in the third quarter of '21, however, the third quarter of this year also saw $0.15 of EPS versus normal weather assumed in our original plan. As David mentioned earlier, we also saw a 1.7% increase in weather-normalized demand this past quarter, which drove $0.06 per share. Higher transmission revenues resulting from our ongoing investments to enhance our transmission infrastructure and higher volumes drove about $0.01 increase. These positive drivers were partially offset during the quarter by higher operation and maintenance expense as well as increased depreciation expense, which impacted our EPS by $0.01 and $0.03 per share, respectively. Additionally, we incurred $0.03 of higher interest expense due to increased debt outstanding at higher rates. I'll turn next to year-to-date results which you'll find on Slide 12. For the nine months ended September 30, adjusted earnings were 790 million or $3.43 per share compared to 768 million or $3.35 per share for the same period last year. Again, moving from left to right, our year-to-date EPS drivers versus '21 include the following. When combined with above normal weather in the first two quarters, our year-to-date results now reflect a $0.09 benefit from weather versus last year. When compared to normal weather, weather this year contributed $0.26 year-to-date. Weather-normalized demand increased about 2% year-to-date driving approximately $0.15 of EPS. Higher transmission revenues driven by ongoing investments combined with an increase in transmission delivery charge revenues due to higher volumes led to $0.12 year-to-date increase versus '21. These items were partially offset by increased O&M expense due to higher generation maintenance driven by weather and outages as well as increased vegetation management, leading to approximately $0.07 per share, $0.08 of higher depreciation expense due to increased infrastructure investment, $0.05 of increased interest expense and lower AFUDC equity, again primarily driven by higher debt outstanding at higher interest rates. $0.02 of income tax smoothing driven by timing differences within the year, and finally we had $0.06 of other items primarily from lower COLI proceeds and higher property taxes incurred prior to the implementation of the new Missouri property tax tracker in late August. Turning to Slide 13, I'll provide greater details on the drivers of our increased midpoint and narrowed guidance range for 2022. Starting with our previous guidance range, on the left of the slide and again moving from left to right. First, we incorporate the $0.26 of weather impact year-to-date, assuming normal weather for the fourth quarter. Higher transmission revenues driven by an increase in TDC revenues due to higher volumes drives a $0.09 increase versus original expectations. These items are partially offset by an $0.11 per share increase in O&M driven by increased generation maintenance to maximize fleet availability due to higher than expected demand and power prices year-to-date, and higher vegetation management spend. $0.09 per share from COLI driven by immaterial COLI proceeds year-to-date and assuming no further COLI proceeds in fourth quarter, $0.06 driven primarily by higher interest expense. And lastly, we've incorporated the $0.01 per quarter impact of the Sibley deferral or $0.04 for the year into our updated guidance. And finally, turning to Slide 14, having raised our midpoint guidance for 2022 and increased our dividend by $0.07 to $2.45 per share annualized, we are reaffirming our 2021 to 2025 long-term annualized EPS growth target of 6% to 8% and continue to target dividend growth in line with EPS at a 60% to 70% payout. We'll be providing 2023 adjusted EPS guidance on our fourth quarter call in February, and we'll be filing our Kansas rate case in late April of next year with rates effective in late December. We continue to plan 10.7 billion of infrastructure investments from 2022 to 2026. And we'll provide an update to our CapEx plan on our fourth quarter call, as we maintain focus on making investments to ensure we provide affordable, reliable and sustainable service to our customers and communities. With that operator, we'd be happy to take questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from the line of Angelique Aiello with Bank of America. Your line is now open.
Dariusz Lozny:
Hi. Good morning. This is Dariusz on for Julien. Thank you for taking the question.
David Campbell:
Hi, Dariusz.
Dariusz Lozny:
Good morning. First one is, I just wanted to maybe check in on status or progress thus far on wind PPA buy-ins. I think earlier in the year, you guys expected to do at least one of those. Just curious if you could give an update or maybe any kind of updated expectations as that process moved along?
David Campbell:
Sure. I'll hand that over to Kirk. This is David. I appreciate the question, Dariusz. As you would expect, the evolution of the Inflation Reduction Act has created some uncertainty in the marketplace, both around what the subsidies would be and whether they would occur. And that has created some dynamics with respect to both considering what valuation is and what the future potential could be. We now have clarity around that, of course, but folks are still settling on respective values. We think that on balance, it further enhances the value proposition where we're proposing in terms of the benefits to potential sellers and for us to potential buyers and what we can offer to customers, but has impacted time. But I'll hand it over to Kirk who's driving that process.
Kirkland Andrews:
Sure. I'd just add to that. We haven't changed that objective and we're still focused on getting at least one of those done. We're still in active dialogue with counterparties on that front. Can't absolutely predict the timing. Obviously, we're within a couple of months of the year end, but we are laser focused on that objective. And if the time extends a little beyond the year end, that doesn't change that focus on at least getting one of those done. And that again is incremental to our plan both from a capital and EPS perspective.
David Campbell:
And we've been pleased with -- Kirk and his team were able to negotiate and agree to the acquisition of Persimmon Creek. That's an operating wind farm. We hope to get approval on that by year end and certainly have that in the system next year. As an operating wind farm, it's added a portfolio earlier than what was in our IRP that was initially part of our 2024 plan.
Dariusz Lozny:
Okay, great. Thank you very much for that clarity. And maybe just a follow up on the Sibley change in accounting treatment. Can you maybe just discuss a little bit sort of like prospectively what is included in forward guidance relative to that change in the accounting treatment? And also how I guess the pending order from the PSC in Missouri can affect the range of outcomes there?
Kirkland Andrews:
Sure, Dariusz. First of all, in terms of in our forward expectations, as you know and as I indicated, a part of our rate filing in Missouri included the ongoing return on Sibley. That's something we've discussed before. So that is obviously pending and for the Commission and that's in our expectations. We've kind of talked about the order of magnitude of what that means from an EPS perspective on a go-forward, about $0.03. Drawing the distinction between that and the accounting change, however, as I indicated in my remarks, the deferral to the regulatory liability, although that does change in hindsight as well, we recast our adjusted EPS by that $0.01 a quarter. Looking forward, as I also indicated, that does not change our expected earnings on a go forward basis. The accounting change does not change our expected earnings.
David Campbell:
Yes, so the Sibley item remains open. We'll expect a Commission ruling. Really it could be as soon as this week or in the coming weeks certainly, because our rates go in effect December 6. As Kirk described, it's about $0.03 of exposure going forward. And you may say, well gosh, it's if it's $0.01 a quarter this year, why is it lower? It's because of the -- that's the amount that was set in rates in the last rate case. It's a lower balance. Going forward, that's under review. And there are a couple of items that the Missouri Commission will review, and Sibley is one. We always expected that would get a lot of attention in the rate case. It was in a complicated situation. But we were pleased to get constructive settlement of the main issues in the rate case, and we'll have resolution on the remaining couple in the coming weeks.
Dariusz Lozny:
Okay. Excellent. Thank you for clarifying. I'll pass it along here.
David Campbell:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
That concludes today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the call back to David Campbell for closing remarks.
David Campbell:
Well, that was efficient. So I'll wrap up by starting with a special thanks to Lori Wright who will be retiring from Evergy this year after 21 years with the company and its predecessors and nearly four decades in the industry. Lori, we greatly appreciate your outstanding service and contributions. And we know that Pete Flynn has large shoes to fill. For everyone on the call, we appreciate your time with us today and have a great day.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q2 2022 Evergy Incorporated Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Lori Wright, Vice President, Investor Relations and Treasurer. Please go ahead.
Lori Wright :
Thank you, Michelle. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Evergy's second quarter call. Thank you for joining us this morning. Today's discussion will include forward-looking information. Slide 2 and the disclosure in our SEC filings contain a list of some of the factors that could cause future results to differ materially from our expectations and include additional information on non-GAAP financial measures. The releases issued this morning, along with today's webcast slides and supplemental financial information for the quarter, are available on the main page of our website at investors.evergy.com. On the call today, we have David Campbell, Evergy's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Kirk Andrews, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. David will cover our second quarter highlights, our integrated resource plan and our regulatory and legislative priorities. Kirk will cover in more detail the second quarter results and discuss the latest on sales and economic trends. Other members of management are with us and will be available during the question-and-answer portion of the call. I will now turn the call over to David.
David Campbell :
Thanks, Lori. And good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. I'll begin on Slide 5. I'm pleased to report that we had a solid second quarter as we delivered adjusted earnings per share of $0.86 compared to $0.85 in 2021. The increase in adjusted earnings over last year was driven primarily by favorable weather, an increase in weather-normalized demand and higher transmission margin, partially offset by higher planned operations and maintenance expense and lower other income net of expense. Kirk will discuss the second quarter drivers in more detail. On our first quarter earnings call, I highlighted that we had just participated in a safety roadshow and that our focus on safety contributed to strong safety performance in the first quarter. Our employees continued this positive trend through midyear reducing work-related injuries, including recordable and restricted events by 60% compared to the same period last year. And our customer reliability has been solid despite challenging weather, reflecting the beneficial impacts of our ongoing grid investments. Compared to the 5-year trend in our service territory, so far this year, the number of days with sustained wins over 25 miles per hour increased 89% to 65 days, and days with wind gust over 40 miles per hour increased nearly 50% to 78 days. 2021 was in line with this 5-year average for both measures, so 2022 has been a clear outlier. In contrast, relative to the 5-year trend, average daily outage events have decreased by 14% in the first 6 months of 2022, notwithstanding the more extreme weather, indicating improved system resiliency. I would like to thank all Evergy employees for their focus on safety and their dedication to providing safe, reliable and affordable power to our customers. I would also like to highlight a recent generation milestone. As you know, we have been expanding our wind portfolio for over a decade. With about 4,400 megawatts of owned and contracted wind generation, our portfolio recently marked 100 million-megawatt hours of cumulative wind energy production. And in 2021, factoring in the production from our Wolf Creek nuclear plant, our emission-free generation was equivalent to 56% of our total retail customers' usage. Our team's consistent execution has resulted in a solid start to the year, and we are reaffirming our 2022 adjusted EPS guidance of $3.43 per share to $3.63 per share as well as our target long-term annual EPS growth rate of 6% to 8% from 2021 to 2025. Slide 6 highlights our annual Integrated Resource Plan update, which was filed in June for both Kansas and Missouri. Our preferred plan for the next decade is consistent with the resource plan laid out in last year's Triennial IRP filing and the renewables development plan Kirk discussed during our Investor Day last September. The minor tweaks in the plan reflects updates to the sequencing of our near-term investments. Specifically, we shifted the 190-megawatt solar edition and the Lawrence coal retirements to 2024, primarily due to the dynamic market conditions facing the solar supply chain and the benefits to customers of keeping Lawrence online with current high natural gas prices. In 2026, we shifted a planned solar project to wind and increased the capacity assumption for the project by 100 megawatts. Beyond 2026, we slightly reduced megawatt assumptions for our solar projects, which on a net basis offset some upward pressures on pricing. Overall, by the end of 2032, our preferred plan now includes 3,500 megawatts of renewable additions while also responsibly retiring nearly 2,000 megawatts of coal, balancing both affordability and reliability as we advance our fleet transition and advance toward achieving our sustainability and emissions reduction goals. Moving on to Slide 7, I'll provide a summary of key regulatory and legislative milestones and ongoing constructive developments in both Kansas and Missouri. In Missouri, we continue to work our way to the pending general rate case. In early June, staff and other interveners filed their direct testimony. And mid-July, all parties filed rebuttal testimony. In the next few weeks, parties will file true-up and surrebuttal testimony with a settlement conference to follow around August 22 and hearings later this month through early September. Revised rates in Missouri will go effective on December 6. We look forward to working with the parties to constructively resolve the case. At Missouri West, we have also been advancing the securitization process to recover the roughly $300 million of winter storm Uri costs. Earlier this week, we filed a nonunanimous settlement that resolves all key issues with the Missouri Commission staff. In terms of timing, hearings are wrapping up this week, and we expect a commission financing order in mid-October. On the legislative front of Missouri, Senate Bill 745, which modifies Plant In Service Accounting, or PISA, was signed by the governor and became law in late June. The modifications reduced the revenue requirement cap to a 2.5% annual compounded growth rate and narrow the calculation to consider PISA deferrals only. Importantly, this bill also puts into a law a property tax tracker effective later this month, which will eliminate a historical source of lag in our Missouri jurisdictions. The PISA extension marks the second consecutive year of passing new legislation in Missouri that will benefit customers and stakeholders. In 2021, HB 734 was signed into law, authorizing the securitization of extraordinary costs and the unrecovered book value of our retired generation plants. Moving to Kansas. I'm pleased to report that in June, the Kansas Corporation Commission approved the nonunanimous stipulation agreement for winter storm Uri costs. The order allows us to recover roughly $120 million of deferred extraordinary fuel purchase power and nonfuel costs at Kansas Central over a 2-year period beginning in April 2023. Similarly, the $37 million of net benefits at Kansas Metro will be returned to customers over a 1-year period, also beginning in April next year. Preparations are underway for our Kansas Central and Kansas Metro rate cases, which we will file in April 2023. We expect the test year ending September 30, 2022 and the true-up date around June 30, 2023, with new rates becoming effective in December of next year. Other important milestones in Kansas include the passage and signing of securitization legislation in mid-2021 as well as the completion last November of the docket before the Kansas Corporation Commission relating to the Sustainability Transformation Plan. In both Kansas and Missouri, the Triennial Integrated Resource Plans have completed their review process. The Missouri Public Service Commission approved the IRP in March of this year and the Kansas Corporation Commission accepted the IRP in May. We will continue to work collaboratively with regulators and interveners in both states to achieve constructive outcomes that advance our core objectives of delivering affordable, reliable and sustainable power to the customers and the communities that we serve. Overall, we are pleased with the strong start to the year, the progress that we have achieved in working closely with regulators and stakeholders to enhance our service to our customers and the ongoing consistent execution of our business plan. I will now turn the call over to Kirk.
Kirkland Andrews:
Thanks, David. And good morning, everyone. I'll start with the results for the quarter on Slide 9. For the second quarter of 2022, Evergy delivered adjusted earnings of $198 million or $0.86 per share compared to $195 million or $0.85 per share in the second quarter of 2021. The year-over-year increase in second quarter EPS was driven by the following. First, a 16% increase in cooling degree days drove a $0.06 increase in EPS compared to second quarter 2021. Adjusting for the warmer-than-normal weather experienced in the second quarter of '21, however, the second quarter of this year saw an $0.11 increase in EPS versus normal weather assumed in our original plan. We also saw a 4% increase in weather-normalized demand this past quarter, which drove $0.10 per share. Higher revenues driven by our transmission investments, combined with an increase in TDC revenues due to higher-than-expected volumes, drove a $0.06 increase. These positive drivers were partially offset during the quarter by O&M expense, which was approximately $29 million higher or $0.10 per share driven primarily by planned generation maintenance outages and higher transmission and distribution contractor expense. We saw $0.02 of higher depreciation and amortization expense due to increased infrastructure investment; $0.02 of higher interest expense due to increased debt outstanding at higher interest rates; and finally, we had $0.07 of lower other income, net of expense, due primarily to lower COLI proceeds year-over-year as well as lower AFUDC equity. I'll turn next to year-to-date results, which you'll find on Slide 10. For the 6 months ended June 30, 2022, adjusted earnings were $332 million or $1.44 per share compared to $320 million or $1.40 per share for the same period last year. Again, moving left to right on the slide, our year-to-date EPS drivers include -- versus 2021, rather, include the following. When combined with relatively normal weather in the first quarter of this year, our year-to-date results reflect the $0.06 impact from weather during the second quarter. Weather-normalized demand year-to-date increased about 2%, driving approximately $0.10 of EPS. Higher transmission revenues driven by ongoing investments, combined with an increase in TDC revenues due to higher volumes, led to an $0.11 year-to-date increase versus 2021. Year-to-date, these items were partially offset by the following
David Campbell :
Thank you, Kirk. We appreciate your time with us today, and we now would be happy to take your questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Michael Sullivan with Wolfe Research.
Michael Sullivan:
David, I wanted to just start with pretty strong quarter in terms of just the sales growth, weather normal and then also the weather benefit. Maybe if we could just get a little color on how the weather normal compared to plan. And just given the strength, why not raise the guidance at this point in the year?
David Campbell :
So Michael, good questions. We obviously are pleased to see the demand growth weather normalized that we saw in the first half of the year. We had some expectations for reasonably strong demand growth, and that was front-end loaded. We had a relatively softer recovery in the pandemic in a couple of sectors in the first half of last year. So we did expect to see that demand growth, particularly in the first half of this year. We're a little bit ahead of plan but only a little bit. With that sustained, that's obviously -- would be a nice tailwind. Haven't yet seen recessionary pressures, but of course, we'll be in a close look out for that. Now in terms of our performance overall, it has been a solid start to the year. Third quarter is our biggest quarter, and July was relatively robust weather. But our approach to guidance is typically we will make that assessment and give an updated view after the third quarter since it's our largest quarter. But we are pleased with the start to the year.
Michael Sullivan:
Okay. Great. And then I just wanted to shift to the rate case and maybe if you could just talk about where there may be outstanding sticking points and potential for settlement. And then also, I think one of them is obviously the Sibley issue if that were not to go your way. Is that something that you see as manageable? There are a couple of questions there.
David Campbell :
Yes. So the Missouri rate case, which you're asking about, is we're certainly in the -- my first general rate case in Missouri, and it's an interesting process in the state. There's a tremendous wave of activity towards the end of the process. So while we filed in -- back in, gosh, in the first quarter, this month, we will see our final true-up filings. We'll also see surrebuttal testimony. We've got the settlement conference scheduled, and then hearings will begin at the end of the month scheduled to early September. So there's a lot of action that will happen there. Now you, I know, have been tracking the filings closely, the gap, particularly when you've seen some adjustments in staff filings in their filing on revenue requirement. I think the gaps are relatively reasonable and the issues are pretty well understood. So we look forward to engaging constructively in discussions just as we did in the winter storm Uri securitization proceeding, where we were able to file a nonunanimous settlement, resolving our issues with staff earlier this week. So it's a pretty typical rate case. We'll be looking to finalize ROE, some items related to depreciation and some other factors, tax items. As you noted, Sibley is as we expected, a matter that generated a lot of ink or a lot of, I guess, digital ink. I'm using my old -- the old metaphor. But the Sibley will be an active discussion. We do think it's manageable. I think we've gone through this before in the past. Kirk has related to it. There's 3 main components. One is the O&M recovery that we have actually been setting aside rate of regulatory liability for. So there's a discussion on that is really the time period for returning it. And there's a return on component since the last rate case. Cumulatively, it's roughly, the rate cases there were going to be $40 million to $50 million range. Depending on what the decision is on that, that's a onetime item, not an ongoing issue. So the last issue is one that could have some impact on performance, and that's a residual rate base in Sibley. We think it makes sense. And consistent with the initial settlement that was filed [4] years ago, that will be retired in the normal course like other assets. But there'll be discussion around that. It's a relatively modest amount. So it's -- we think it can be managed. But those will be discussion items in the final piece. We've appreciated the dialogue, and we look forward to advancing those discussions as we go through all the testimony and the proceedings over the next few weeks. So it will be a busy time, but that's the crescendo that is typically the case in the Missouri context, as you know.
Michael Sullivan:
Great. And just last one if I could throw it in, just initial thoughts on the Inflation Reduction Act and what it means for your company.
David Campbell :
So we're obviously going to continue to track that closely. We think that the provisions relating to renewables should have a beneficial impact of further reducing the cost of our expected additions for our customers. That also appears to make sort of the transferability and ability to take advantage of the PTCs and ITCs simpler, so it simplifies tax equity or other approaches. So it not only lowers the cost but increases the efficiency of some of those mechanisms. So on balance, we think it's a helpful enabler that will further reduce cost for customers as we move forward. And there's some other provisions in there. We'll track where the nuclear piece is. It's eligible for both merchant and regulated assets. That's not an earnings driver for us, but could be beneficial for our customers in terms of reducing costs because there are times when our Wolf Creek plant does receive low prices because of the wind resources, particularly in the spring and the fall. So the -- it may well end up being eligible for some recovery there, too. So we think that it's a beneficial set of provisions. We'll obviously watch closely as it weaves its way through in Washington and monitor closely in the amendments and the ultimate -- hopefully, the ultimate passes that we see.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Durgesh Chopra with Evercore.
Durgesh Chopra :
Just a quick clarification on the -- in the Missouri rate case. The residual amount, David, on Sibley, that's about $100 million. Correct? So it's relatively small, the residual rate base amount?
David Campbell :
Yes, the residual rate base. There are some parties who may argue for a different number, but that's the residual rate base. And Sibley at this time -- so a pretty modest number as you described.
Durgesh Chopra :
Got it. And then just -- I think this might be -- but the AMT doesn't really apply to you because you're sort of below the $1 billion pretax marker, right, at least through 2020, this year, the plan?
Kirkland Andrews :
That's correct. I add to that on that 15% minimum tax. Part of it is aided by our inventory of tax credits as we move forward. You're correct, we expect to be below that threshold. So I would think about that something that we -- potentially, if we rise to that level, it would be beyond or coincident with the very least our expected cash taxpayer year, which is beyond the middle of this decade.
Durgesh Chopra :
Okay. So no -- basically no impact from the AMT over the next few years? Second half of the decade is when we should -- we could potentially see if something is passed on this front?
Kirkland Andrews :
That's correct. And again, that will also be somewhat dependent on the ongoing generation of tax credits as we move forward to some extent from -- as we progress around our renewables plans. But you're right directionally in terms of all things being equal, that time frame in that inflection point, correct.
Durgesh Chopra :
Got it. And just one final one. Just anything on the PPA buyout opportunities? Looking like more likely to happen this year or your chances have increased given the extension of these tax credits. Anything you can share there?
Kirkland Andrews :
So I would say that the extension of the tax credits, first of all, is passed. And certainly, we're hopeful and optimistic that, that takes place. Gives us greater flexibility on the repowering side of that equation. So that's a benefit, especially as we focus on earnings and, certainly, affordability for our customers. We're continuing to hold that objective. We're continuing to advance our discussions with counterparties, and I'm maintaining that target to announce at least one of those this year. It may be a buy-in or it may be a buy-in combined with a repowering, but we continue to be focused on that. And at the same time, we had robust responses to our RFP that we launched toward our of renewables objectives, in particular the 300 megawatts of wind and 24 followed by 525. So we've had good results from that as well, and we're expecting to have some news on that front as we progress through the balance of the year as well.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Paul Patterson with Glenrock.
Paul Patterson:
So can you hear me?
David Campbell :
Yes.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. Good. Sorry. So I wanted to -- and I apologize, but you guys made some comments about, I think, wind production at the beginning of the call and I was wondering if you could, if possible, sort of to summarize what you're seeing in terms of wind production. And I apologize I just wasn't able to completely comprehended on my end, sorry.
David Campbell :
Sure. So we -- what I referred to, Paul, was that we achieved a milestone this past quarter. We surpassed 100 million-megawatt hours of cumulative wind generation across our portfolio since the company start. So obviously, that's a significant milestone in terms of our cumulative wind production. To calibrate it in terms of our total fleet, about 1/3 of our total production last year in generation terms was from wind. And if you include our nuclear generation from Wolf Creek, nearly half of our total generation was for emissions resources. So wind generation as a share of total portfolio is -- and we're higher than virtually every other utility at 1/3 of our total generation. So that's what I was citing, was that cumulative milestone passing 100 million-megawatt hours.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. Got it. I think you also or maybe I misunderstood you guys were also talking about the performance of wind. I was just wondering, has there been any issue in terms of production year-over-year? As I recall, there might have been a decrease. I just was wondering what -- how has wind been performing sort of on same-store kind of -- has production been going? And also, I was just wondering, we've seen around the country sort of some curtailments in different areas do transmission constraints and what have you. Have you seen any -- in your -- not just with you guys but with any neighboring -- because you guys have a significant sort of area in terms of wind. Have you seen any projects or what have you in your neighborhood, so to speak, experiencing any curtailments due to transmission constraints?
David Campbell :
Got it. So I'll -- it is a complicated, great question. But stepping back to the different elements of your question, I think overall, the wind portfolio continues to perform well. So our generation capacity factors -- we've got a very large number of sites. But in general, the capacity factors in Kansas are as high as partially any region. A lot of our sites are over 50% capacity factors, and they continue to perform well. The broader issue of curtailments, it varies across the geography in Kansas, where the bulk of our generation sits, obviously the vast majority. There are pockets in Central and Western Kansas, where there is congestion, and there is some curtailment that occurs. It's not an earnings driver for us because it flows through the fuel clause, but it is a factor that impacts customer rates. So obviously, we're very attended and attuned to it, and we advocate at the Southwest Power Pool for projects that can beneficially reduce congestion costs for customers. So it is a factor with higher natural gas prices where the price differentials can be higher, so congestion costs across the Southwest Power Pool and really across the country are higher because prevailing prices. If you have a differential between a generation resource like renewables that is no cost and effectively a negative cost because you get a PTC for many of them, the difference between those resources and a natural gas resource, for example, has been magnified at higher natural gas prices. So it's something that we are working with the Southwest Power Pool and other constituents to seek to address. A lot of that takes transmission solutions, which takes time. But overall, the wind profile across our territory is outstanding. We've got one of the best wind corridors in the U.S. and the world. So it's going to continue to be a great resource for us. But transmission has to keep up, and that's the perennial issue to manage with renewables.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Nick Campanella with Credit Suisse.
Nicholas Campanella :
A lot of questions have been answered so far. But I guess just on resource planning in general, I think there's some discussions about STP reserve margin increasing, and I'm just curious about how you're thinking about that and the overall stack on your resource planning if you went there. I know that you're already somewhat long capacity across the portfolio, but just wanted to check in on that.
David Campbell :
So you are tracking things well and closely. SPP did recently increase their reserve margin to 15% from 12%, and that will go in effect next year. You are correct in that it's not going to have a near-term impact on our capacity requirements, so we will be able to meet that. But it is going to be a factor in our longer-term planning. So as we think about our coal retirements and the overall transmission of our portfolio, obviously, we'll be factoring that in and making sure that we can meet it. I think as SPP continues to look at different seasonable -- seasonal reserve margins, so for example, a winter reserve margin, that will be very interesting as well. But the short answer is we can accommodate that change in reserve margin with our portfolio. We'll factor it into our ongoing plans. On balance, obviously, it will have some impacts to the longer-term plans but relatively modest, but it will -- we'll be factoring that in as we consider our resource transition, and we'll be working closely with stakeholders as we think about that winter reserve margin requirement as well. Obviously, the winter peaks are lower. But as you look at the average capacity factors across the fleet as you add more renewables, the winter is going to be important thing to consider as well.
Nicholas Campanella :
All right. Great. That's helpful. And then just one small one on the numbers. I know that COLI and AFUDC was a $0.07 drag. Can you just remind us like what COLI is year-to-date in isolation? And what's contemplated in your '22 guidance from a COLI perspective?
Kirkland Andrews :
Sure. Happy to address that. So COLI, overall, I think we said this in the past, we generally expect about $20 million of COLI impact. That is both a pretax and after tax. COLI is not tax-affected at the end of the day. So year-to-date relative to our expectations, we're probably $0.04 lower than we would have expected, basically half the year on that COLI because we've effectively had very little proceeds from COLI, and that's actually just a function of the performance of the underlying folks that are insured by that. So year-to-date, I think about that is about $0.04 short of what would normally be our ratable expectations for the year.
Operator:
At this time, there are no other questions. I would now like to turn the conference back to David Campbell, President and CEO, for closing remarks.
David Campbell :
Thank you. We appreciate all of you joining this morning. Thank you for your interest in Evergy, and have a great day. That concludes the call.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the First Quarter 2022 Evergy Inc. Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will follow at that time. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Lori Wright, Vice President Investor Relations and Treasurer. Thank you. Please go ahead.
Lori Wright:
Thank you, Blue. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Evergy's first quarter call. Thank you for joining us this morning. Today's discussion will include forward-looking information, slide 2 and the disclosure in our SEC filings containing list of some of the factors that could cause future results to differ materially from our expectations, and include additional information on non - GAAP financial measures. The releases issued this morning, along with today's webcast slides and supplemental financial information for the quarter, are available on the main page of our website at investors. evergy.com. On the call today, we have David Campbell, Evergy's President and Chief Executive Officer and Kirk Andrews, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. David will cover our first quarter highlights, our regulatory and legislative priorities, and our enhanced ESG profile. Kirk will cover in more detail the first quarter results, the latest on sales and customers, and our financial outlook. Other members of management are with us and will be available during the question-and-answer portion of the call. I will now turn the call over to David.
David A. Campbell:
Thanks, Lori, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin on Slide 5. I'm pleased to report that we had a solid first quarter as we delivered adjusted earnings per share of $0.58 compared to $0.55 in 2021. The increase in adjusted earnings over last year was driven primarily by higher transmission margin and lower operating expenses partially offset by an increase in depreciation and amortization and higher income tax expense. Kirk will discuss these first-quarter drivers in more detail. One of our objectives is to become widely recognized for operational excellence, which includes safety. Our strong safety culture drives both discipline and consistency of performance as well as cost management. During the first quarter, our employees participated in a safety roadshow that included presentations at 70 sessions throughout our service territory. This continued focus on safety has contributed to a 68% reduction in OSHA recordable safety events relative to the first quarter of 2021. I would like to thank all Evergy employees for their focus on safety and their dedication to providing safe, reliable, and affordable power to our customers. I would also like to congratulate our Wolf Creek nuclear plant for completing a project to store spent fuel in a concrete bunker adjacent to the plant. This is Wolf Creek's first dry cask fuel storage campaign and the team did an excellent job managing the project. With a solid start to the year, we are reaffirming our 2022 adjusted EPS guidance of $3.43 to $3.63 per share, as well as our target long-term annual EPS growth rate of 6% to 8% from 2021 to 2025. Slide 6 highlights the core tenets of our strategy, affordability, reliability, and sustainability. Keeping rates affordable is at the forefront of our thinking given its importance to our customers, especially given current economic conditions. We've made clear progress in advancing the competitiveness of our regional rates over the last few years and our plan is constructed to continue this trajectory. We are closely monitoring and managing inflation in all aspects of our business. And regarding fuel cost, inflation in particular, we are well-positioned relative to many other utilities given our relatively lower level of natural gas exposure, as natural gas comprises typically 5% or less of our generation fuel mix annually. We like many of our peers have revisited our commodity procurement and hedging practices in light of the increased volatility which are at levels not seen for more than a decade. Ensuring reliability is also a core element of our strategy, along with [indiscernible] and safety. This includes a focus on metrics relating to customer service, the commercial availability of our fleet, safety, and all elements of our operations, including infrastructure investment. This spring has brought resiliency to the forefront as high winds in our service territory have been significantly more prevalent than normal, including several days in recent weeks with wind gust in the 50 to 60 miles per hour range. These types of conditions reinforce the importance of our ongoing transmission and distribution investments.
Kirkland Andrews:
With respect to sustainability, our track record includes reducing our carbon emissions by nearly 50% versus 2005 levels, and providing nearly half of our energy from carbon free sources. In January, we announced plans to build a 10-megawatt solar rate. Our Hawthorne plant, depending regulatory approval. And in February, Evergy's cumulative wind power generation passed the 90 million megawatt hour milestone. That's enough wind power to fuel more than 300 billion miles of electric vehicle travel. We will continue our generation transition towards cleaner energy, always balancing affordability and reliability. On Slide 7, I'll profile another element of our corporate strategy relating to environmental, social, and governance measures. Since forming Evergy in 2018, we've enhanced our ESG practice in disclosures, which have yielded significant progress in our third-party ESG scores as reflected on the slide. For example, last year, we introduced our 2045 net 0 carbon target. With an interim goal of 70% reduction by 2030, building on our track record and trajectory of historical emissions reductions. Beyond environmental policy, we've also taken a comprehensive approach to reviewing and updating our social and governance policies in related disclosures. Examples included corporate human rights policy, improved forward governance by-laws, expanded shareholder rights, and a formalized water policy, among many others. In addition, our board has linked executive compensation to the successful execution of both environmental and diversity, equity and inclusion aspects of our business.
David A. Campbell:
We're proud of the advancements we've made to further demonstrate our commitment to leading ESC practices. We are focused on maintaining this momentum as we execute our plan and deliver sustainable results in the years ahead. Now, before handing over to Kirk, I'll conclude by discussing some of our key regulatory and legislative priorities on Slide 8. In Kansas, we recently reached a non-unanimous stipulation agreement with key interveners for the Winter Storm Uri costs from February 2021. The settlement calls for roughly $120 million of deferred extraordinarily fuel, purchase power and non-fuel costs at Kansas Central to be recovered through our fuel clause over a two-year period beginning in April of next year. Similarly, the $37 million of net benefits of Kansas Metro will be returned to customers by the same method over a one-year period, also beginning in April 2023. We remain on track to file this summer the annual update to our Kansas and Missouri integrated resource plan. We expect that the annual filing will be consistent with the resource plan than we laid out in last year's triennial IRP filing and the renewable development plan that Kirk discussed during our Investor Day last September. In Missouri, we initiated the securitization process to recover the approximately $300 million of Winter Storm Uri costs in Missouri West. If approved, securitization will extend the recovery period for these costs over 15 years, and thereby significantly moderate the impacts on customers. In terms of timing, we expect an order in the securitization proceeding in the fall of this year. And last month, we began flowing the approximately $25 million of net benefits from Uri, back to Missouri Metro customers. This benefit we shared over one-year period. I'll wrap up this slide with an update on our legislative efforts to enhance and extend the plant and service accounting law known as PISA in Missouri. The bill under consideration sets an annual revenue requirement cap at 2.5%, applicable only to PISA related deferrals. The bill also includes a property tax tracker and extends the law through 2028 with the opportunity for extension through 2033, with commission approval. We are encouraged by the support the bill has received in both the senate and house, and we'll continue to work with legislators and parties to secure passage over the next 10 days. With respect to the pending Missouri rate case, we expect to receive intervenor direct testimony on June 8th, related to revenue requirements, and on June 22nd, relating to rate design aspects, with rebuttal testimony, due mid-July and serve rebuttal testimony due mid-August. Our settlement conference is scheduled for August 22nd, with hearings later that month through early September, provides rates and Missouri will go effective on December 2nd. We look forward to working with parties to constructively resolve the case. I will now turn the call over to Kirk.
Kirkland Andrews:
Thanks, David. And good morning, everyone. I'll start with the results for the quarter on Slide 10. For the first quarter of 2022, Evergy delivered adjusted earnings of $134 million or $0.58 per share, that's compared to $125 million or $0.55 per share in the first quarter of 2021. First quarter adjusted EPS was driven by the following items as shown on the chart from left to right. As expected, higher-margin driven by our transmission investments drove a $0.05 increase. Adjusted O and M expense was approximately $13 million lower or $0.04 per share due to reduced credit loss expense, lower transmission, and distribution expense as well. $0.03 of higher depreciation and amortization expense due to increased infrastructure investment. And finally, we had a $0.03 of unfavorable income tax expense, which was an entry year timing impact related to income tax smoothing, which will reverse throughout the year. I will also note our first-quarter adjusted EPS excludes a $0.05 loss on one of our average ventures investments, which went public via SPAC in the fourth quarter of 2021. As you may recall, our fourth quarter 2021 EPS similarly excluded a larger mark-to-market gain associated with this same investment. On accumulative basis, relative to our original investment, this results in a net gain of approximately $0.04. Finally, as David mentioned, given the solid first quarter results, combined with our outlook over the balance of this year, we're reaffirming our adjusted EPS guidance range of $3.43 to $3.63 per share for 2022. And consistent with historical patterns, we expect our second quarter adjusted earnings to contribute approximately 20% of our total adjusted EPS for the full year. Turning to Slide 11, I'll provide a brief update on recent sales and customer trends. On the left-hand side of this slide, you will see the overall, our weather-normalized retail sales for the quarter were up about 40 basis points, which drove a small positive variance in earnings, largely in line with our expectations. Demand by subcategory as expected continues to reflect the reversal of the impact of COVID in the prior year, as we return to more normal conditions with lower residential demand as fewer customers are working from home, while commercial and especially industrial demand trend higher. As summarized on the lower right for the slide on the economic development front, Meta, formerly known as Facebook, chose the Kansas City region for a new $800 million data center, which is expected to bring over 1,400 construction jobs to the area. Additionally, Northeast Kansas was selected as the site for a new $650 million bio manufacturing facility, which is expected to add 500 jobs to our service territory. And finally, last month, Bombardier announced that Wichita, Kansas, the Air capital of the world, will be the new home of its U.S. headquarters, and will bring along hundreds of new jobs to that region. And finally on slide 12, our focus remains on continuing to demonstrate a strong track record of execution. We've reaffirmed our adjusted eps guidance for 2022, as well as our long-term compounded annual EPS growth rate of 6% to 8% from 2021 to 2025 based on the midpoint of last year's original EPS guidance of $3.30. And we expect to return a meaningful portion of our earnings growth to our shareholders by maintaining our dividend payout ratio to keep that dividend growth in line with earnings. We continue to invest in our infrastructure to improve affordability, enhance reliability and customer service, while advancing our sustainability and transitioning our generation fleet as reflected in our $10.7 billion five-year CapEx plans through 2026, which is consistent with the targeted rate base growth of 5% to 6% from 2021 to 2026. With that, I'll hand the call back to David.
David A. Campbell:
We now welcome your questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Michael Sullivan from Wolfe Research. Your line is now open.
Michael Sullivan:
Hey, everyone. Good morning.
David A. Campbell:
Good morning.
Michael Sullivan:
Wanted to start with the pending Missouri legislation there, and maybe if you could just give us a little more color on the process, is it really just a matter of working through things here or do you sense there is some level of opposition that could waylay things at the last moment? And if it does get done, does that change the way you think about how you invest or frequency of late case filings and things like that?
David A. Campbell:
Thanks, Michael. It's great question. We have the broad-based support for the extension the bills reflected diversions passing through both the senate and the house. So the main issue at this point is just working through with the end of the session a week from tomorrow. It's just working through can we get thing through the session as with every bill that's pending typically a bit of a race, both the marathon through the night and rates to get things through the session, so that's really the main issue to work through. In terms of our plan, I think it's what piece of reflecting the support for peace of reflects is the support that's in Missouri for the ongoing investment in -- both in the resiliency and reliability of the system, as well as the transition towards renewable resources done with a focus on affordability and liability. So I don't know that it changes the plan just for the reinforces and accents, the themes of the plan, and allows us to do so in an orderly basis. In terms of the rate case scheduled, we don't have a fixed timetable or mandated to fall and over this bill require one. So I think it won't change our plans in terms of timing, that'll really be driven by the level of investment when we want to get things to the usual factors that balance when you file a case. Hopefully that makes sense.
Michael Sullivan:
Yes, it does. And then also wanted to circle back to just the near-term resource planning. I think on the last call, you provide an update around the 190 megawatt solar project that it sounded like was slipping a little bit and then I think in conjunction with that, had the Lawrence coal plant retirement. Can you just update us on where that stands?
David A. Campbell:
Sure. And I'll hand to Kirk, so I'll just briefly say, the solar farm, 190 megawatt solar farm that we call Pixley. We still are actively considering it, but we have pulled a predetermination process for that, we mentioned that on last call. We also noted that it was not a material earnings driver in our forecast period because the nature of the market-based rate structure we had for that it was not a traditional rate base addition, so I think there is a timing question on Pixley which does not have any kind of material earnings impact. The Lawrence plant, as you noted, we described in the last call, our plans. It's a two unit coal plant outside Lawrence, Kansas that we were linking the retirement timeline to the addition of the solar farm. I think we're still thinking along those lines. But we're no longer planning to retire all 500 megawatts will convert 350 megawatts, which is unit five to gas, so we can keep reliability asset online. So that's still the plan. And again, I think its very consistent with the earnings trajectory and growth rate that we've laid out in a firm. Kirk [Indiscernible]
Kirkland Andrews:
On good selling, just obviously focused on consistency and certainty of costs there. And with some of the headwinds we've seen with the recent Department of Commerce Investigation around anti-dumping and countervailing duties, I think that's going to be a little bit of pacing item as we look to work constructively of our counter-party on that project. But overall, if at the very least it results in a delay, as David said, I think I've talked to a lot of you about this, not a meaningful driver of earnings in the early years of our plans. So if anything, it's just shifts us closer to the point at which should -- it would deliver more consistent earnings strength. But relatively small project, and we're going to continue to manage the process as we move forward our counterpart here.
David A. Campbell:
And Michael, as you know, our RR -- IRP, our Integrated Resource Plan was -- I know it's been a big focus in recent calls. We have less solar over the near-term. So in 2024, 2025, we're adding wind so that next tranche of solar is not scheduled for us to come online until 2026. We had 350 megawatts of solar in our IRP in 2026. So we're less exposed to the near-term issues in the supply chain and the tariff proceeding.
Michael Sullivan:
Super helpful. Thanks for all the [Indiscernible]
David A. Campbell:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Lapides from Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.
Michael Lapides:
Hey, guys. Just one thing. Can you remind us on pension status which are funded status as in given the moving rates, given the move in the market, how you're thinking about what that does to both pension liability and maybe more importantly, pension expense that flows through O&M?
David A. Campbell:
It's a predominance of the Michaels this morning. Good morning, Michael. Michael following Michael. So for us, it's not that we don't have an earnings exposure, we're only giving our regulatory mechanisms in the two states. Our funding status is relatively lower than some other plans and that's again related to how our regulatory funding mechanisms work. So I think we'll continue to show that funding level. We don't expect the change in this trend is going to have a material impact on the cost that flow through the rates to customers. So for us, relative to others, this is not the thing in our earnings struggle. And it's a pretty arcane setup and maybe simplest to go through offline, but I got headlines summary is one that can you can go with.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Yeah, I knew Missouri had the track or I wouldn't where Kansas did as well. That's super helpful, much appreciated. One other question, just any update on the discussions about buy-in of wind PPAs?
David A. Campbell:
Sure, Michael. The only thing I'd tell you is we've -- as I've said at the fourth quarter call, we felt confident enough given the progression of dialogue with a subset of those counterparties that we're targeting, getting at least one of those buy-ins and potentially repowering done this year. We remain in active dialogue with those counterparties, we're progressing with discussion. So I'll just reaffirm that we're continuing to target that and we'll keep you apprised as we continue to progress that project or process, I should say.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Thanks, much appreciated. And that's not in your CapEx guidance, so that would all be incremental?
David A. Campbell:
It is not. That would be incremental, yes. Direct.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Thanks, guys. Much. Appreciated.
David A. Campbell:
Thank you, Michael.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Julien Dominion from Bank of America. Your line is now open.
Darius Anderson:
Hey, good morning, guys. This is Darius is for Julien. Thanks for the time this morning. Just wanted to maybe come back to the Lauren Gas converging discussion. Can you maybe just kind of talk through the puts and takes, their relative to the a 190 megawatts of solar that appears to be on hold at the moment, from a capital perspective, how the one compared to the other?
David A. Campbell:
Good morning, Darius, and thanks for question. Partly we are linking them for the energy replacement. We also were linking them because we can go through linked predetermination process, so it's pretty efficient from a regulatory perspective to link those two together. That was really the main driver why the two -- where we can decouple if we need to and certainly we'll consider that over time. Again, the Pixley solar products is very unusual and that it just didn't have any meaningful earnings impact till beyond our forecast period. So there's less impact from that is also relatively modest impact from Lawrence because we're keeping the bulk of the plant online. There's some [Indiscernible], of course, that would happen from converting the form coal to gas, but relatively modest impact on rate base. We plan to securitize that, but we keep the large-unit line. So again, it's a matter of convenience from a regulatory proceeding and energy management perspective link the two, but we don't need to, it's not a must. So we'll look at that as we continue to evaluate the cost of solar, I think that the -- from an integrated resource planning perspective, we can accommodate that retirement of Lawrence. Your next question may relate to our overall commodity price environment. That's certainly something we look at, though we're talking about timeline of '23, '24, we'll have to see what the number of natural gas cycles, believe it or not. So we'll see how long this one goes, but that -- we will look at those dynamically. They won't necessarily be linked, but they still currently are.
Darius Anderson:
Okay. Thank you. That's very helpful. One more if I can, and this relates to -- again, this relates to some of the objectives you guys sit out on the Q4 call. Obviously, we are in inflationary environment that's been in discussion certainly with respect to wind. You guys have stated that you're hoping to execute some build trends for agreements for wind, for delivery in the mid-decade time frame, can you just give an update on how those conversations are progressing?
Kirkland Andrews:
Hey, Darius, it's Kirk so as a reminder, we do have 800 megawatts across the course -- of wind across the course of '24 and '25, 324 and 525. As we updated you, I think last year, and again, fourth-quarter, we launched an RFP process, responses have been robust. We've got a shortlisted counter parties, we're relatively and reasonably oversubscribed relative to that objective, and we're continuing to progress that dialogue. I think we've seen some constructive responses and we'll continue to update you as we move forward. We're targeting getting the first part of that done from an execution of bill transfer in time to get those projects online, that first 300 megawatts in '24 and '25. And as it sounds now that process, as we say with the level of engagement we have with counter parties, we're still on track to deliver that, especially focusing on that first installment of 324.
Darius Anderson:
Okay, I appreciate the color. I'll turn it back here. Thank you.
David A. Campbell:
Thanks Darius.
Operator:
There are no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the conference back to David Campbell, President and CEO.
David A. Campbell:
Great. Thank you, Blue. Thanks everyone for your interest in Evergy. Have a great day. We'll conclude with that.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating and have a wonderful day. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Thank you for standing by and welcome to EVRG Inc.'s Fourth Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator instructions] I would now like to hand the call over to Lori Wright, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer. Please go ahead.
Lori Wright:
Thank you, Richie. Good morning, everyone and welcome to Evergy’s Fourth Quarter Call. Thank you for joining us this morning. Today's discussion will include forward-looking information. Slide two and the disclosure in our SEC filings contain with some of the factors that could cause future results to differ materially from our expectations and include additional information on our non-GAAP financial measures. The releases issued today along with today’s webcast slides and supplemental financial information for the quarter and full year are available on the main page of our website at investors.evergy.com. On the call today, we have David Campbell, Evergy's President and Chief Executive Officer, and Kirk Andrews, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. David will cover our 2021 highlights, an overview of our recently filed Missouri rate cases, along with other regulatory and legislative priorities. Kirk will cover in more detail the fourth quarter and full year financial results, information on sales trends, and provide an outlook of our 2022 objectives. Other members of our management are with us and will be available during the question-and-answer portion of the call. I will now turn the call over to David.
David Campbell:
Thanks, Lori, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin on Slide 5. This morning, we reported full year 2021 GAAP earnings of $3.83 per share compared to a $2.72 per share in 2020. Adjusted earnings per share were $3.54 in 2021, compared to $3.10 in 2020. These results reflect strong execution relative to our objectives for the year. We entered 2021 with a midpoint guidance of $3.30 per share, in line with our 6% to 8% target growth rate range. We were able to deliver $3.54 per share representing a 14% increase over 2020 and a 7% increase over our initial guidance midpoint. Kirk will discuss the drivers of this year’s results as part of his remarks. A critical part of the company’s five year sustainability transformation plan involves a comprehensive program to modernize our grid and invest in infrastructure. We advanced this capital plan in 2021 deploying $2.05 billion or $100 million higher than our Investor Day estimate to replace ageing equipment and improve reliability, resiliency and security. We also maintain our focus on advancing affordability and regional rate competitiveness. Since 2017, we have delivered a 4.2% overall rate reduction to our customers. At the same time, we have reduced our total operating and maintenance expenses by 18% since 2018, enabling us to pass on these cost savings in our upcoming Missouri and Kansas rate cases. In 2021, our total CO2 emissions were 46% below 2005 levels reflecting strong progress relative to our long-term emissions reduction targets. And last but certainly not least, we continue to prioritize constructive interactions with our key regulatory and legislative stakeholders. In 2021, we wrapped up STP dockets in both Missouri and Canada and securitization legislation was enacted in both states. We expect that securitization will serve as a helpful tool in managing the company’s ongoing fleet transition in the coming years. On Slide 6, you will see our recent earnings and dividend growth trends. As we have emphasized over the past year, consistent execution remains at the forefront of everything we do. The $3.53 midpoint of our 2022 adjusted EPS guidance tracks with the 7% compound annual growth rate from 2019 which was Evergy’s first full year as a company. This is squarely in line with our targeted long-term annual earnings growth of 6% to 8%. Alongside the earnings, you will see the attractive dividend growth that is tracked within our 60% to 70% dividend payout policy. I would like to thank my fellow Evergy employees for their continued focus and team works and driving these results, overcoming the challenges of another unprecedented year including extreme weather during winter storm Uri, and the ongoing pandemic. We look forward to working together to further advance this track record of execution. As noted on Slide 7, we made significant progress on emission reductions as we’ve transitioned our generation fleet over the last decade and a half. Since 2005, we’ve reduced carbon emissions by nearly half by reducing sulfur dioxide and NOx emissions by 98% and 88% respectively. Our renewable energy portfolio is approaching 4.5 gigawatts and we’ve responsibly retired nearly 2.5 gigawatt to fossil generation over the last 15 years. Our updated integrated resource plans which were filed last spring outlined our intention to add nearly 4 gigawatts of renewable generation and retired nearly 2 gigawatts of coal over the next decades. In 2021, nearly half of the electricity we provided to customers came from carbon free sources and we are on pace to reach our goal of 70% reduction in CO2 emissions from 2005 levels by 2030 with a long-term objective of net zero carbon by 2045. Slide 8 summarizes our five year capital expenditure plan, which totals $10.7 billion from 2022 to 2026. On a comparative basis, the current 2021 to 2025 plan is in line with what we presented in our Investor Day last September with some timing shifts reflected in higher base CapEx in 2021 and 2023 and slight reductions in the other years netting to roughly $100 million increase overall. With the addition of 2026, the rolling five year capital expenditure plan is $235 million higher than the 2021 to 2025 plan. The largest portion of our infrastructure investment is targeted towards transmission and distributions. The program is focused on replacing aging equipment and modernizing the grid, driving benefits for our customers by improving reliability, enhancing resiliency, and the ability to withstand extreme weather, upgrading customer systems and the customer experience and increasing security. As we advance the use of smart grid technologies and transition towards a lower cost, lower emissions generation fleet, our investments will also enable us to reduce cost to serve customers, which helps to create a virtuous surplus which has on these savings. Slide 9 summarizes our progress in driving cost savings and capturing efficiencies and how we work enabled by the 2018 merger and a comprehensive program across the business, we have reduced cost by $233 million or 18% since 2018. We are laser-focused on operational excellence as we leverage investments and technology to operate more effectively and efficiently. We are also building more and more flexibility into our generation operating model in the southwest power pool market which continues to see an increase in penetration of renewable generation. And we are not done, as we are targeting a further 11% reduction in total O&M by 2025 as part of our five year plan. Thus far we have been able to manage the impacts of inflation on our O&M costs and we have developed plans to capture the vast majority of our targeted savings. The back half of 2021 brought increasing pressures on fuel and purchase power costs as we’ve been seeing across the country to create higher levels elsewhere than what we see in our jurisdictions. And it appears that those trends may continue in the current macro environment and geopolitical context. Affordability and improving regional rate competitiveness are core elements of Evergy’s strategy. As shown on Slide 10 since 2017, Evergy has been able to reduce rates by an average of 4.2% outpacing regional peers and at a level well below inflation. On the slide, we layout how we’ve been able to deliver these savings across each of our four jurisdictions from 2017 to 2021. This topic remains at the forefront for our customers and stakeholders and going forward, maintaining affordable rates will continue to be features as a priority objective in our five year plan. Let’s turn to Slide 11, I’ll give an update on our ongoing Missouri rate reviews we filed this January. Starting on the left hand side with Missouri Metro, we have requested a $44 million rate increase including the rebates – excuse me, excluding the rebates to fuels, based on a 10% return on equity, a 51.2% common equity ratio and a projected $3.1 billion rate base as with the proposed May 31, 2022 WHO update. The primary drivers of the rate requests include our increased infrastructure investments, which improve reliability enhanced customer service and enable the company’s transition to cleaner energy resources, updated depreciation rates that better align with the estimated remaining lives of IFRS and increased power pre-taxes. These increases are significantly offset by roughly $55 million of lower annual operating cost savings that we are pleased to be able to pass on to customers. Moving on to Missouri West, we requested a $28 million rate increase excluding the rebates of fuel and based on a 10% return on equity, a 51.8% common equity ratio and a projected $2.5 billion rate base as of the proposed update. Missouri West rate request drivers are similar and include an increase from infrastructure investments, updated depreciation rates, and increased property taxes partially offset by ongoing customer savings and cost reductions of roughly $57 million per year. These savings effectively lowered the rate increase request by more than 60%. The Missouri West case also includes the handling of our previously retired Staubli power plant. We’ve been deferring the revenues associated with the foregone O&M resulting for the plant’s retirement in 2018. As part of this case, we’ve offered to return these revenues back to customers over the next four years, which would reduce annual revenues by roughly $10 million and with no impact on earnings. To summarize, we believe that the pending Missouri rate reviews are relatively typical and straightforward with two main elements. First, passing on the benefits of cost savings and second, any infrastructure and grid monetization investments that are consistent and advance the objectives of Missouri policymakers and stakeholders. We are excited about the benefits that these investments will deliver to our Missouri customers. Now the procedural schedule is not yet final but on the bottom of the Slide 11 you will see our estimated timeline from here. We expect stats and intervenor testimony we filed in June which will bundle testimony in July, potential hearings in early September and finally commission orders in November. If approved as filed excluding the fuel, the rate request which represent an increase of 5.2% for Missouri Metro customers and a 3.85 increase for Missouri West customers both of which are well below the rate of inflation we’ve seen since our last rate cases. Moving to Slide 12, I’ll provide an update on other regulatory and legislative priorities beginning with our predetermination docket in Kansas. As a reminder, last September, we initiated a proceeding to approve the elimination of coal at the Lawrence Energy Center, the retirement of Lawrence Unit 4 with recoveries through securitization and the addition of a 190 megawatts of solar generation in Kansas. Later in the year, last year, we filed a request to temporarily suspend the procedural schedule to allow time to develop more clarity on solar tariffs with the potential for tax incentives to improve customer economics and the resolution of supply chain and customs issues that could impact pricing and availability. Given the lingering uncertainty around those issues rather than keeping this docket on hold, we have withdrawn the filing and plan to file a new application once definitive agreements are reached with the solar developer. The elements of the plan are unchanged and we still expect to see pre-determination approval for the cessation of coal, the retirement of Lawrence 4 and the addition of 190 megawatts of solar. While this may impact the timing of the solar farm addition, it does not have a meaningful impact on our earnings expectations as the structure for the new solar was expected to contribute less than a penny to annual adjusted EPS in both 2024 and 2025. This is due to the market-based rate construct that was pursued in this case under which the earnings profile is tied to the time that Evergy can monetize the value of the ITC tax benefits of the project in the back half of this decade. In parallel, we are in the process of evaluating competitive proposals for up to one gigawatt of new wind resources that would come online in the 2024 to 2025 timeframe. Kirk and his team are overseeing our renewable efforts and he will highlight our priorities in his remarks. Other regulatory items include recovery of costs incurred during winter storm Uri. In Missouri, we are awaiting commission approval of our request to defer approximately $300 million at Missouri West with plans to securitize the costs and smooth the impact on the customers over multiple years. We are also seeking approval to defer and return approximately $25 million of net benefits to Missouri Metro customers. We expect to reach resolution on the deferral request in the second or third quarter and a commission decision on the securitization on the Missouri West cost by the end of the year. In Kansas, last month the KCC Staff filed its recommendation to approve our recovery plan of approximately $115 million of Uri costs in Kansas Central and the return of approximately $35 million of benefits in Kansas Metro. We are working closely with all parties and we expect to finalize the details of the path forward in the first half of this year. In 2021, we filed our integrated resource plans in Missouri and Kansas providing an updated 20 year roadmap for our generation fleet transition in conjunction with our announcement of our long-term emissions reduction targets. We will file our annual update to the IRP in both states by July 1st. I’ll wrap up this slide with a legislative update focusing on Missouri. The bills have been introduced to extend and update legislation that was passed in 2018 widely referred to as plant and service accounting or PSA. We’ve been utilizing this legislation since 2019 supporting our investments in grid monetization and improve reliability. We believe that the build has good policy and enjoys wide support. But whether it ultimately advances this year will depend most likely on unrelated issues and receive the bulk of legislative attention. We are focused on working with key stakeholders to advance the PSA extension this spring but given the provisions of the currently existing PSA legislation. This is an initiative that we would also be able to pursue next year. In addition in Missouri, we are pursuing mechanisms to enable the efficient recovery of costs outside of our control notably property taxes. Before handing it over to Kirk, I’ll wrap up on Slide 13 which summarizes the Evergy value proposition. The left side of the page covers the core tenets of our strategy to advance affordability, reliability, and sustainability through relentless focus on our customers supported by stakeholder collaborations, sustainable investments and financial and operational excellence. The right hand side of the slide 13 features what we believe are particularly attractive and distinctive features for Evergy given our business mix and geographic locations. We are excited about the opportunities for our company and we are committed for the sustained effort required to deliver against our high performance objectives. I’ll now turn the call over to Kirk.
Kirk Andrews :
Thanks, David, and good morning, everyone. I’ll start with the results for the quarter on Slide 15. For the fourth quarter of 2021, Evergy delivered adjusted earnings of $37 million or $0.16 per share, compared to $64 million or $0.28 per share in the fourth quarter of 2020. Fourth quarter adjusted EPS was driven by the following items as shown on the chart from left to right. First, we had a seasonally warm weather across the end of the quarter, particularly in December, resulting in significantly fewer heating days as compared to the fourth quarter of 2020 and driving $0.07 of unfavorable contribution from weather. When compared to normal weather assumed in our original plan, the mild weather negatively impacted our results by $0.10. The unfavorable weather was offset by a 4% increase in weather normalized demand or approximately $0.08 per share relative to our expectations for the quarter, weather normalized demand was approximately $0.04 favorable as we began to see demand recovery which we had previously forecasted to be delayed into 2022. Stronger performance in our Evergy Ventures in Power Marketing businesses drove $0.03 of EPS versus the fourth quarter of 2020, which offset $0.03 of lower EPS from COLI as we did not received proceeds during the fourth quarter of 2021, while the prior fourth quarter included the majority of our COLI in 2020. Income tax-related items drove a net decrease of $0.04 per share. This was primarily due to the impact of the Kansas income tax rate exemption, which led to a lower tax yield in the fourth quarter as well as the expiry of certain tax credits in November of 2020. Finally, shown in the final two bars, adjusted EPS for the quarter was $0.09 lower due to the expected timing and phasing of certain cost items. $0.06 of this variance was due to the realization of higher O&M including bad debt expense during the fourth quarter resulting from timing shifts within the year. The remaining $0.03 as shown in the final bar was a result of pulling forward certain cost items from Q3. Of note, our fourth quarter and adjusted EPS for the full year excludes the mark-to-market impact of one of our Evergy Ventures Investments, which went public during the quarter via a SPAC acquisition. We continue to expect to monetize this investment when the lock-up restriction expires later this quarter and have elected to adjust the gains and losses related to investments which are subject to a temporary sales restriction such as this one. I’ll turn next to full year results which you’ll find on Slide 16. For 2021, adjusted earnings were $813 million or $3.54 per share, compared to $716 million or $3.10 per share in 2020. As shown in the slide from left to right, the key drivers of this 14% year-over-year increase include the following
David Campbell:
Thank you, Kirk. So, for those on the call, we appreciate your time today and we’d like to open it up to questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Shar Pourreza of Guggenheim. Your line is open.
Shar Pourreza :
Hey, good morning, guys.
David Campbell:
Good morning, Shar.
Shar Pourreza :
Morning. David, Kansas seems like it has been a little bit noisier maybe even somewhat hostel to actually both you and the KCC. We saw One Republic and others demoted from a committee because of an off paddy road. There was obviously recently legislation for in – for price cap some lawmakers have been really hounding on the KCC. I guess, could we just get any color on your conversations in recent weeks there? Any efforts to sort of pivot the conversation? It’s just been a little bit more noisier than we are used to.
David Campbell:
Shar, it’s good question. We are in the legislative session, which is always active. Look, I think in Kansas, I think there is an active dialogue and we appreciate that. And part of why you see us feature the rate reductions that we’ve been able to deliver and our improving rate competitiveness and I would describe it as a lively conversation, but there is balanced inputs from all sides. There was a presentation for example that KCC’s staff gave in one of the committees, in a senate committee that highlighted how are rates over the last ten years in Kansas Central have been flat to declining over ten years. So well below the rate of inflation and now it’s certainly noted and of course, you will recall how securitization legislation was passed last year with overwhelming majorities in both houses. So, we are very focused on regional rate competitiveness. We know how important that is. There are some sickles in the stay as a variety of opinions around renewable and others as reflected in a variety of opinions around our country. But we think it’s a constructive dialogue overall and we are certainly – and we are very focused on the same priorities that our key stakeholders have in the stake.
Shar Pourreza :
Got it. Thank you for that. And just last maybe for Kirk, just maybe – just on the buy-in, how does that interact with the IRP update process? And just remind us or any buy-ins in the CapEx plan or is it sort of an opportunity that’s incremental?
Kirk Andrews:
Sure, sure. So, first, I’ll answer the second part of that question is, we know those buys are included in our capital expenditure forecast that would be flexing up if you will. In terms of the overall process around the IRP, as the PPAs that underpin those buy-ins already support our renewable and our ability to serve loads, this would simply be a shift in perspective of how we deliver that in the near-term if you will, right? So we be replacing an existing resource that we avail ourselves through a PPA within owned resource for the same number of megawatts. It’s the really repowering on the back end of that and the extension potential for it which is obviously beyond the scope of our, at least our five year plan that would have that impact, that makes sense.
Shar Pourreza :
Got it. No, no, that’s helpful. Very clear cut quarter. Thanks guys. I appreciate it.
David Campbell:
Thanks, Shar.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Durgesh Chopra of Evercore ISI. Your line is open.
Durgesh Chopra:
Hey, good morning, team. Thank you for taking my question. Kirk, just following up on the PPA buyout opportunity, in terms of like basically I’ve understand it, right, this is basically a PPA converted to a rate base, of course, am I thinking about that correctly? And then, do you need to sort of get regulatory approvals for it to ultimately accretive and what does the time line look like?
Kirk Andrews:
Well, the timeline as I’ve said, we are currently actively involved in discussions with multiple PPA counterparties for a potential buy-in which is why as I indicated we feel comfortable in at least targeting one of those who occurred this year. Obviously, it’s a two party negotiation. So we’ve obviously got to get to closure on that. In terms of the regulatory process, directionally speaking, I think the way you describe it is correct. We are basically taking a PPA pass through and converting that to capital. Ultimately with the focus being for the benefit of the customer, i.e. the target and the first step of that is, if we can buy in that PPA at an attractive overall capital price, so that be associated impact on rates with that if you will, rate base investment provides customer savings, that’s the most important step. In terms of how that gets adjudicated, it would go through a similar processes, really any rate based investment. Right, if that was in Kansas, we’d go through pre-determination of those in Missouri. We’d actually pursue through different names and an ordinary rate case context. Combining that with powering, it’s just an increase in the overall capital would be well or an extension of that time line albeit rather in the pass through, it would be a rate base investment within all in savings, right. I think about that almost a blend and extend type approach if you will.
Durgesh Chopra:
That makes ton of sense. Thank you for explaining that, Kirk and so essentially, maybe the earnings accretion comes from rate basis and the investment going through future rate cases if you will. Just maybe shifting gears, can you just talk about the O&M savings that’s been a sort of very impressive execution on that front, how are you thinking about sort of inflation pressures, supply chain constraints. Are those hurdles for you to achieve your target for 2022 and beyond and how are you tackling those? Thank you.
David Campbell:
So, that’s a good question thus far and obviously, in the macro environment, that continues to be dynamic. So, one we are highly attentive to as does everyone. Thus far we’ve been able to manage the inflationary pressures on the O&M side. It has some impact despite – some impact on the cost and building on the capital side we’ve also been able to work through those as well. And we are confident that we can continue to manage it. In our 2022 plan as you may have seen in the waterfall that Kirk walked you from 2021 to 2022, it’s an overall $0.06 uplift in O&M. So we have some cost savings this year. We also had some impact last year from the outperformance – unusual outperformance in our unregulated business should have some impact in our O&M cost modest, but that’s part of the uplift we see going into next year. But it’s an ongoing effort that we are going to drive in 2023. 2024, and 2025. So we have, as part of our five year plan we already have teams in place that have identified the bulk of those savings and how we are going to achieve them and we’ll be in execution mode in the back half of this year and in the upcoming years. So it’s got to take the same effort, it’s been a comprehensive program across our whole company, Kevin Bryant our Chief Operating Officer is coordinating that effort on our behalf, but the company has got a great track record in this year and we know how to do it. That’s going to take sustained execution. So, we don’t want to certainly acknowledge that but we have the tools and the compliance in place to make it happen.
Durgesh Chopra:
Got it. Thank you for taking my questions. I appreciate the time guys.
David Campbell:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael Lapides of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Michael Lapides :
Hey guys. Thank you for taking my question and congrats to a strong year. I wanted to talk about the PPA buy-ins as well as any build own transfer of loads. Congress obviously hasn’t been able to get anything across the finish line both CFA can try to do something in the Lame-Duck Session at the end of this year, it doesn’t look like anything to happen before the mid-terms. Just curious, do you think about pulling forward all of your renewable plants to capture what could be the safe harboring benefit that some of the developers who themselves maybe thinking about repowering for – thinking about building new solar. The reason toward the Safe Harbor provision benefit that would happen because they’ve got it Safe Harbor that last year or two years ago PPP or ITP level versus what this year through next year would be?
Kirk Andrews:
Sure, it’s good question and we certainly – we thought about that at least in the context of the buy-ins and repowerings around that safe harbor. That would obviously require us to make a capital outlay to obviously safe harbor that component of it. We’d certainly be mindful of doing that, but we’d also be reasonably cautious about that around the context of having line of sight or certainty of our ability to get that PPA buy-in and repowering negotiated. But that’s certainly something that we are looking at. At the same time, we are hopeful that ultimately, obviously in the current political environment. There is a lot of distraction and chaos, but if ultimately those provisions of back better ultimately do get passed, that obviously gives us greater flexibility. But we are certainly mindful of availing ourselves of that option in the current context from a safe harbor standpoint.
David Campbell:
And Mike, I’ll also add is the – from, this is David, so, from the perspective of the integrated resource plan and our multiyear capital expenditure plan, we look at the overall level of capital we are spending. We look at the overall rate impacts and affordability. We do think to bring on renewable as a win-win, because it typically lower cost as well as lower emissions. But we are going to track with the program and with respect to the IRP, part of the rational for why there is some sequence in shift, wind relative to solar was in consideration of some of the factors around a safe harbor. So the category of truly new development we are sensitive to all those various factors and balancing them. Of course, we have an IRP update that we’ll do this year and it’s a dynamic market and we are going to be responsible for what we see. The PPA is a little bit different, the buy-ins and repowerings and that’s as Kirk described in existing set of resources, so that’s for complicated new issue with the initial set of counterparties obviously, but for those, we have opportunities that are sooner and we’ll certainly look for that. But it’s subject to what you can accomplish with the counterparties. They’ll of course, those are all basically wins. So, talking about the PPAs for repowering those are really on the wind side. But the safe harbor point that you made is relevant and we’ll seek to do as many others as we can, but within the constraints of what the counterparties will do with us.
Michael Lapides :
Got it. And then, when we think about the buy-in and the repowering, can you just remind us how rate making for that would work, meaning if you bought the asset first, how do you get the acquisition in the rates and then if you repower it down the road, how does the capital spends and repower of the asset given the rates?
David Campbell:
Well, first of all I could comment in two forms, right. Buy-in and repowering can be a single negotiation with the counterparty that we can contract with on both elements of that. Obviously, that would be the owner of the existing asset, that was our counterparty end of the PPA. And a potential repowering initiative, almost again the kind of bill transfer expect with that seem counterparty negotiating those in tandem, that’s sort of my blend and extend example, so it’s sort of a single view of the capital required to buy in the remaining years of the PPA combined with the capital and the repowering. That would be an overall rate base investment. And again, that would need to be viewed by us especially through the lens of affordability for our customers. It only makes sense for us to do this as a first order. If that we can substantiate that capital investment when combined to result in a savings to the customer, relative to the PPA that’s being pass through and obviously supplemented by greater certainty of what those costs are in the long run. There is the possibility that there could be a negotiating of a buy-in and a later repowering. That would really be a bifurcation of really two capital investment considerations, right. A little bit more challenging in one sense, because you’ve got to substantiate the affordability and the prudency of both of those two things individually, which is why I think it’s a cleaner path to do them combined. But there are opportunities to do both, that will mean we go through and say, here is the capital investments replaces existing PPA pass through. Here is the savings around that, that will be separately adjudicated and then we’d approach the repowering separately.
Michael Lapides :
Got it. And then, finally, can you get them in your rates between rate cases or do you have to – can you remind me, I thought Kansas had a track or wider where you can put it in. But can you remind me on the Missouri rule as well?
David Campbell:
Not a tracker on the Missouri side if I understand what your question is there.
Michael Lapides :
Got it. So you just have to wait for the next ERC to get it?
David Campbell:
Correct. Yes. That’s right.
Michael Lapides :
Thanks guys. Much appreciated.
David Campbell:
Yes, Michael, again, I want to add on that as the – you could take your pre-determinations. So you get a sense for Kansas, the weather how will be treated in the upcoming rate case and we’ve got a rate case scheduled for 2023 as you know and following a rate case you can do an abbreviated rate case six months into 2024. So there are couple different pathway if you can go down starting with the pre-determinations to get at comfort at how it will be treated and then you can do it either in the general rate case or an abbreviated rate case and nearly filing one that you complete.
Michael Lapides :
Got it. Thank you, David. Looking to [Indiscernible] guys.
David Campbell:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America. Your question please.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Excellent. Hey, good morning, thanks team for the time. Perhaps, listen I don’t want to hammer too much on this buy-in opportunity. But just, you say that you’ve got a few contracts at least one year. What’s the order of magnitude of megawatts that we are talking about here? I am not sure I pin you guys down, just curious if you can speak to that?
David Campbell:
Yes, sure, Julien. First of all, we are focusing on that subset of those PPAs that total for us about 300 megawatts and sure I think we had that as part of our presentation in Investor Day. It’s about at little more than about 1.25 gigawatts of that where the PTCs are either already expiring or approaching expiry and that’s kind of the sweet spot. So we are really currently focusing on counterparties in that particular category. I would say, in the near term, around our objective of at least getting one of those executed this year, which is our goal. One the 200 megawatts would probably a good rule of thumb to think about.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Right. Effectively establishing a framework for how to scale that up to around that one, two or whatever if you can make it work.
David Campbell:
I think that’s a fair way to characterize it.
Kirk Andrews:
Yes, it’s some level and we view that PPA base as pipeline, now it’s – some of that pipeline is near term to longer term. But that’s at least long term pipeline for us.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Absolutely. Yes, that’s turns down. I appreciate that. And then, related, I mean, I saw this by last week if I can call it that to have a larger shareholder of 15% deal to call a meeting. Admittedly, I know we’ve been through that, what drove that specific change of late if you can speak to it?
David Campbell:
Sure, that we felt that was just an approving our [Indiscernible] process have the ability for a shareholder to call that kind of meeting. So, we are evaluating our overall governance practice. We felt – that we saw that would be an enhancement to create that ability to call a meeting. So, we looked at where the threshold work for peer companies where other companies or a lot of companies still don’t offer that. But we wanted to add that as an additional capability of the shareholder family proposal. But I view that as – I would put that in the category of our overall evaluation of our ESG policies and approaches of trying to continue to approve on those.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. I know you alluded to this earlier, embrace your Kansas rate cap session. I mean, how much support does the proposed law that would – gap increase the 1% tier have, I mean, a tough question to ask, but curiously if you could provide any context of the positioning here?
David Campbell:
We do not think that it has broad support. We don’t think that it’s going to giving it out. So it’s lots of proposals get offered. I’ve seen that over my career and all the legislative discussions that are seen in every states, but now we don’t even think that would get out a committee. I had some discussions but we don’t think it’s got large support.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Excellent, thanks for closing that.
David Campbell:
You bet.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Have a great day.
David Campbell:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Nicholas Campanella of Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Nicholas Campanella:
Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I was just curious in light of the comments on the 190 megawatts of solar and you talked about looking for more clarity on tax incentives and supply chain pricing impacts. Can you just help us think about how that translates to the overall roughly $2 billion renewable CapEx program that you have outlined here? I know it’s fairly back-end loaded, but are you kind of taking a wait and see approach to this capital so far out or does the CapEx that you have in the slides today kind of reflects this supply chain and pricing pressures that you are seeing. Thanks.
David Campbell:
So, I’ll start and then hand it over to Kirk. So, I would characterize the solar project in particular is pretty unique and that it’s got that market base structure and that’s really because of the IPC benefits that are currently in place and how to take advantage of those most effectively and working with our counterparty and we are speaking a level of certainty in that agreement and that’s part of why we decided to withdraw the docket and we will file and once we have the certainty. So it’s really related to supply chain issues in particular and we are seeking the certainty because of the importance of the affordability point that we mentioned. But because of the structure of that deals, it’s a minimal contributor to earnings in 2024 and 2025. Our wind additions that we’ve got slated in 2024 and 2025 in the end of both years, we believe we’ll be able to pursue in a more traditional way. So, there is some supply chain pressure. But obviously those are a little out further in time and those reflect our latest view in light of what we’ve seen in the RFP process that we went through. We got some pretty robust bids. So that continues to be our expectation. It’s an ongoing wildcard. It’s a macroeconomic situation that’s pretty dynamic, but that reflects our best expectation as we got. Kirk?
Kirk Andrews:
Yes, the only thing I’d add to that on the 190 megawatt solar project, as David characterized it I agree that’s unique around some of those supply chain issues. I think I have mentioned in my remarks. Coming out of our initial pre-determination filing, there was still some lingering uncertainty about what the administration was going to do around whether or not they were going to extend and what the scope of that extension might look like when it comes to tariffs. And there are existing, I mentioned, this as well, in terms of customs and board reduction, there these withhold release orders around, concerns around certain products from China and of course labor provisions which are kind of holding things up a little bit. So those are the best two examples of the uncertainty. And I think that's more unique to solar in this particular project. We wanted to get some clarity on that. Our counterparty wanted to as well. We've obviously seen the Biden ministration give clarity around the least around what their attentions are in terms of the tariffs. So gives us a better backdrop to do that. And we thought it was prudent to do so because we're very focused on this next step in our evolution of moving from what's been primarily a PPA dominated strategy to an own renewables dominated strategy, very important to us that first for at least in the solar side, we do so with an eye toward affordability. So we didn't want to move too fast in negotiating this for the sake of getting it done. We wanted to do it with clarity and certainty about, as I said, cost and schedule for the benefit of our customers. And the reason David mentioned the unique nature of that particular project from a structural array perspective, but it is not, as David indicated, I think, in his remarks, a major contributor in the early years of our plan due to some of the tax aspects of it. So it gives us a little bit greater flexibility to work through some of those unique issues in the near-term.
David Campbell:
Yeah, I'll go ahead and describe just maybe a corollary or questions, even in – we've given earnings guidance, or our target growth rate ranges to 2025. In 2025, the total contribution from the new renewables in our plan is less than 2% of it. So it's a factor we'll continue to watch. We're optimistic we'll be able to make it happen and drive benefits for our customers in doing so. But it's still a relatively modest portion, even in 2025.
Nicholas Campanella:
Got it. Yeah, that's very clear. Super helpful. Really appreciate that. Just on your comments about the higher fuel costs and inflation and trying to translate more savings to customers, obviously, you guys have already done a great job in the base plan today. But you're also going to be kind of filing an update to the IRP this July. And I'm just curious if we're going to get into a tipping point where there's just an argument to kind of further accelerate some of the fossil fleet and how you're kind of thinking about that, in terms of the closures? Thanks.
David Campbell:
You bet. So yeah, there’s lots of intersection points. Inflation is a broader issue in the energy sector. We were happy that we've been able to manage inflation better than certainly see across other parts of the electric space, but it's still an issue. We hope it's going to be temporary. In terms of the implications for our generation fleet transition, we tried to be thoughtful in our Integrated Resource Plan, we'll do take the same approach and our update this year and beyond in terms of the pace and sequencing. New renewables do offer some very attractive features in terms of relative costs or relative emissions profile. Now, it's hard to tell that in the very near-term, given the supply chain issues, which have had some knock-on effects on pricing. So we, I would guess, as we go through our update, you're going to see a similar pacing and sequencing in our plan rather than an acceleration, again, because acceleration runs into some of the – you may not be able to achieve the same, all the same benefits in terms of lower costs, and who knows what's going to happen in Washington. But there is momentum around some features, in terms of additional incentives for renewables, of course, that would drive incremental benefits for customers. So you can't wait and depend on something that's uncertain in Washington, but same time, if there are some factors of the near-term that are raising costs, that bounces against rushing into things. And the other dynamic is, I think we'll have to make sure we have a measured pace to this approach. Yesterday, in our jurisdiction, there was very low wind and it was very cold weather and the reliability of the nuclear fleet and the fossil fleet was an important contributor. So we think we can manage over time as we have nearly half of the electricity that we provide our customers was from a free sources last year, between nuclear and wind. So we think we've got – been on a great track record. We've been able to do that while maintaining reliability, or we're going to be focusing on that balance going forward. But to your broader point, I think there's a way to drive that transition. And with lowering costs and lowering emissions while entering the liability, but it's won't happen overnight. It's got to be in a paced program.
Nicholas Campanella:
That’s helpful. And one more if I can just, if I'm hearing you, right, the PPA buyout opportunities are upside to the capital plan. And just as we think about putting more CapEx into the model, what's your ability to just raise CapEx without additional growth equity capital?
Kirk Andrews:
So it's good question. One of our primary objectives, as we've said a number of times, we have the ability and we're targeting – being able to fund our capital expenditures to our five-year plan without the need for new equity. We do have some degree of flexibility. Obviously, there is – it's not unlimited from an internal generated equity capital standpoint. But I think in the context of my answer to Julian's question earlier, we have enough flexibility, at least in the near-term to get that targeted at least one PPA buy-in done within the context of our plan. So we've got enough flexibility to do that. But it's certainly not unlimited. But we're not planning on doing a significant order of magnitude of those, at least in the near-term of our five-year plan. It would be additive, obviously, not only from a capital perspective, but also from an earnings perspective.
Nicholas Campanella:
Really appreciate the time today. Thank you.
Kirk Andrews:
You bet.
David Campbell:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Travis Miller of Morningstar. Your line is open.
Travis Miller:
Good morning. Thank you.
David Campbell:
Good morning.
Travis Miller:
I was wondering holistically if you look at that CapEx program $10 billion-plus and then you think about the regulatory activity that you have going on right now, Missouri and essentially in Kansas here coming up. How could the outcome of those kind of near-term regulatory outcomes impact that full CapEx plan? And thinking about if things go well, then you might upsize it, things go poorly by downsizing. What are your thoughts there in terms of sensitivity?
David Campbell:
I think we try to be thoughtful in framing the capital expenditure plan that makes sense and drives benefits for customers and is a multi-year program. So it's not a program that we toggle based on the – both of these rate reviews are pretty straightforward, that are underway in Missouri and we expect it to be very similar in Kansas. In other words, you've got a set of infrastructure investments that we've had the chance to preview and review actually, as part of the STP dockets that went on last year into early this year. I think they're very consistent with public policy. Missouri has reflected in the legislation which enacted in 2018 and will drive similar benefits in Kansas. We look at our overall program in terms of what we expect the overall rate impacts will be because we're very focused on affordability and our level of rate base growth is a little lower than a lot of our peer utilities. We think that will actually further help us in that regional rate competitiveness. But we still have a robust program. So we always look at it year-to-year in terms of driving the benefits and reacting to the market. And will – that will be the primary lens as opposed to just reacting what's in the rate case. But again, the – our expectation is that the rate reviews will be pretty straightforward in light of the benefits these can deliver and the fact that we're offering a lot of cost savings to our customers for the rate case, as I described in Missouri. So we're able to offset a lot of the – any potential increases by very sizable and reductions in costs. So net-net, we've got confidence in our program. We've got a robust backlog of additional projects we could do, that we believe will be beneficial. We've got a pretty old set of infrastructure, even just replacing aging equipment. We've got decades of runway on those, but we've calibrated our overall program what we think makes sense for customers in our overall rate trajectory.
Travis Miller:
Okay, great. That makes sense. The – you had answered my other question, so appreciate the time.
David Campbell:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Paul Patterson of Glenrock Associates. Your line is open.
Paul Patterson:
Hey, good morning, guys.
Kirk Andrews:
Hi, Paul.
David Campbell:
Good morning.
Paul Patterson:
I apologize if I missed this, but the – but for 2022 the power ventures telemarketing, what's the expectation for the contribution for that in 2022? It wasn’t fair to me, I’m sorry.
Kirk Andrews:
So overall – it's Kirk. The contribution to our earnings in 2022 from – I'm going to say power marketing and every event is combined, probably about $0.10 cents.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. And then, again, I'm sorry, but the sales growth for 2022, you said was about 1%. And it wasn't clear to me is COVID, I mean, how far – I mean, it sounds like you're also still responding to COVID sort of longer-term, non-COVID recovery. What do you – what's your expectation for sales growth at this point?
Kirk Andrews:
Sure, you bet. So the $0.08 year-over-year growth I characterized in what's behind that $0.08, and that's about 1% year-over-year demand growth behind that. About half of that is just the continued recovery from COVID, almost all of which we would have originally expected to occur in 2021. And if you want to think about sort of ongoing normal way organic growth, it's the other half of that. So, call it, 50 basis points, or 0.5% of that 1% is really the kind of a long-term load growth that we perceive.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. And then finally, back to the Missouri piece of case, the piece of legislation, my understanding is that, without legislation that the PSC would have the flexibility to go with PISA or not. If under the current PISA setup, and I realize it's a 3% cap on the total rate in the 2.5%, does the 3% cover fuel, or just could just give us a little bit of a flavor as to the – what life under the current PISA or the current legislation is versus what it would be vis-à-vis the proposed legislation?
David Campbell:
Sure. So, I'll start off and we've got Chuck Caisley with us, who leads our public affairs and legislative efforts, and he can correct me where I go astray. The current legislation, as you noted, runs through 2023. But utilities can apply to the commission to continue to operate under PISA and the Commission can grant up to an additional five years, so up to 2028. And in the current legislation, the 3% capita, it applicable broadly, so it is inclusive of fuel. Now, the legislation that has been proposed to extend and expand PISA lowers the cap, but it narrows it to apply to just the investments and activities related to PISA. So it's a little more tied to cap – a lower cap to the actual investments that you're making and asking for – to be treated under the PISA legislation. And the proposed legislation also does not have a sunset provision. So we'd continue. So as I mentioned in my remarks, where we are engaging with stakeholders and he makes – it's good policy, it's consistent with the objectives that were behind the first – the legislation was first passed, and we think it was an advanced successfully. And so we're having a good dialogue with stakeholders, whether it passes, it's a busy legislative session. And other factors may sort of take all the oxygen in the room at the end of the day, but we're having good discussions, and we'll continue advancing. If it's not something we can accomplish this year, then I'll continue to be initiative next year. And as you've noted and as we discussed, it is something even without new legislation, you can just ask the public service commission to extend, that is – request we could make next year.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. Just in terms of with the increase in fuel prices that we're seeing in everything, is there a significant amount of deferred fuel recovery? Or are you projecting potentially? How does the outlook for fuel recovery, or any other I guess, cost recovery mean? Is there a big – are there are significant deferrals? Let me ask it this way. Are you seeing significant levels of deferred expenses accumulating here? Or what's the outlook for that under the current setup?
David Campbell:
Yeah, we have seen some increase in deferrals. It varies by jurisdiction for us. So our metro jurisdiction, which is in both Missouri and Kansas, has the most significant amount of generation relative to load. So we've not seen significant deferrals in Metro. Metro is actually a jurisdiction also where we're able to return benefits from winter storm Uri and as a result of that deposition. In Kansas Central, we've got a sizable baseload fleet, sizable wind fleet. There were some cost pressures, particularly in the back half of the year. So we've had some deferrals that we'll be seeking to recover this year. In total, our fuel and purchase power expense in 2021, I think, it was about $70 million higher than it was in 2020. Now we actually collected less than revenue in 2021 and 2020. So our deferral is a little bit higher than that, but we'll be seeking recovery for that in the normal course, as we do under the fuel clause. And then in Missouri West, Missouri West is a jurisdiction that is – has a monogeneration that is less than its load, so it is more exposure to market prices. So again, in the back half of the year, we did see some fuel costs increases in Missouri West. We file twice a year for recovery of any deferrals and then those are recovered in over a 12-month period. So we made a filing in Missouri West in December related to that. So we did see some increase amounts, again, relative to other jurisdictions that have higher amounts of natural gas generation relative to the other elements of the energy complex is relatively lower, but you see those deferral amounts in both two of our three jurisdictions.
Paul Patterson:
Okay, thanks so much. I appreciate.
David Campbell:
You bet. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. At this time, I'd like to turn the call back over to President and CEO, David Campbell for closing remarks. Sir?
David Campbell:
Great, thank you. We appreciate all of you joining us this morning, particularly as this is the last day of a long earnings season. Thanks, and have a great day. Operator This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Thank you for standing by and welcome to EVRG's Third Quarter earnings call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator instructions] I will now like to hand the conference over to your host, Vice President Investor Relations and Treasurer, Lori Wright. Please go ahead.
Lori Wright :
Thank you, [Indiscernible]. Good morning, everyone and welcome to Evergy Third Quarter call. Thank you for joining us this morning. Today's discussion will include forward-looking information. Slide two and the disclosure in our SEC filings continue with some of the factors that could cause future results to differ materially from our expectations. and include additional information on non-GAAP financial measures. The releases issued this morning along with today's webcast slides and supplemental financial information for the quarter are available on the main page of our website at investors. evrg.com. On the call today, we have David Campbell, Evergy's President and Chief Executive Officer, and Kirk Andrews, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. David will cover our third quarter highlights, recap our recent Investor Day, and provide an update on our near-term resource plan. Kirk will cover in more detail the third quarter results, the latest on sales and customer information, and our financial outlook for the remainder of the year. Other members of management are with us and will be available during the question-and-answer portion of the call. I will now turn the call over to David.
David Campbell :
Thank you, Lori. And good morning, everyone. I'll begin on Slide 5 of our presentation. This morning, we reported third quarter adjusted earnings of $1.98 per share compared to a $1.73 per share a year ago, equal to a 14% increase. On a period-over-period basis, these results were driven primarily by favorable weather, higher transmission margin, higher other income, and lower income taxes, partially offset by a decline in weather-normalized demand. For year-to-date September 30th, adjusted earnings were $3.38 per share compared with $2.82 per share a year ago, equal to a 20% increase. As with the quarter, favorable weather is the most significant driver. With these strong results, we are raising and narrowing our adjusted EPS guidance range to $3.50 -- to $3.60 per share, an increase from $3.20 to $3.40 per share. I commend and thank our team's ability to execute and focus on providing safe and reliable electric service to our customers throughout the first 9 months of the year, notwithstanding the lingering pandemic impacts and a significant winter weather event in February. Kirk will detail the drivers of our financial performance that resulted in the upside guidance revisions. In addition, we are affirming our 2022, adjusted EPS guidance, of $3.43 to $3.63 share, as well as our targeted annual adjusted EPS growth target of 6%-8% through 2025, as we laid out during our Investor Day. Lastly, this morning, we also announced a 7% increase in our quarterly dividend to $57.25 per share, or $2.29 per share on an annualized basis. This increase is consistent with our growth trajectory and reflects our Board's confidence in the execution of our plan. Moving on to slide 6, I'll provide a brief recap of the business plan highlights from our recent Investor Day. As part of the event, we re-based and extended our key targets through 2025. Our 5-year capital investments are estimated to be $10.4 billion through 2025, of which nearly $1.5 billion is for renewals projects. This spending plan drives our projected rate base growth of 5 to 6% annually over that time -- that same time period. We also extended our target for cost efficiencies and added nearly $20 million of savings in 2025 increasing our total estimated annual O&M savings from our 2018 base year to $345 million annually in 2025. This represents more than a 25% overall decline. Building on the strong performance and realized cost savings achieved over the last three years, this trajectory implies a one to 2% annualized cost productivity gain through the five-year forecast period. The planned beneficial infrastructure investment, and additional O&M savings, enable us to extend our top-tier 6% to 8% annual growth rate and adjusted earnings per share, through 2025. We're able to fund this plan with significant cash flow and modest incremental debt, allowing us to maintain our strong balance sheet and credit metrics with no planned incremental equity through 2025. Lastly, we showcased our strong ESG profile, including our significant progress in clean energy and changing our generation mix. In 2020, 50% of our energy was emissions-free and we achieved a 51% reduction in EVRG CO2 emissions relative to 2005 levels. We stack up well, relative to our Midwest peers, in terms of both clean energy delivered to our customers and our reduction in carbon emissions. We have ambitious, but achievable goals, as we advanced towards our target of net 0 carbon by 2045. Slide 7 outlines our resource plans through 2026. To further lower energy costs for customers and reduce emissions, we plan to add more than 1,300 megawatts of new renewables split between over 500 megawatts of solar and 800 megawatts of wind, through a series of yearly additions. We also plan to retire coal operations at our plant in Lawrence, Kansas. In September, we initiated a regulatory proceeding in Kansas called predetermination, seeking approval in advance for the Lawrence coal retirement and for the first 190 megawatts of solar generation. We expect to have an order in this proceeding by mid-2022. In October, we also issued a request for proposal for 800 megawatts of wind generation projects. We have sequenced across 2024 and 2025, for the benefit of Kansas and Missouri customers. Bids are due later this month and we plan to select a shortlist of projects before the end of the year. We are targeting having negotiations completed by mid-2022. In parallel, we will continue to evaluate potential opportunities to buy in and re-power existing power purchase agreements as initial production tax credits expire. Before handing it over to Kirk, I'll wrap up on Slide 8, which summarizes the EVRG value proposition. The left-hand side of the page covers what we're focused on and how we plan to execute our strategy, which I discussed in depth during our Investor Day. The core tenants of our strategy are to advance affordability, reliability, and sustainability, through a relentless focus on our customers supported by stakeholder and collaboration, sustainable investment, and financial and operational excellence. The right-hand side of Slide 8 features what we believe are particularly attractive and distinctive features for our Company. First, we are in all electric regulated utility with significant benefits delivered since the merger, and further opportunities that we will capture through continuous improvement, performance management, and sustained consistent execution. 2, we have significant opportunities ahead for the ongoing transition of our generation portfolio. And we can do so cost-effectively, given that we'll be replacing coal with low-cost renewables, which is a win-win for affordability and sustainability. 3, we are geographically advantaged given our proximity to world-class wind resources in Kansas. We are well-positioned to participate in the renewables and transmission build-out that will occur as part of the national transition to a clean energy economy. And finally, we are targeting a high performing 68% annual growth rate and adjusted earnings per share through 2025 at the top rank with our peers. We are very excited about the opportunities for our Company and we are deeply committed to the sustained effort required to deliver against our high-performance objectives. I will now turn the call over to Kirk.
Kirk Andrews :
Thanks, David. And good morning, everyone. I'll start with results for the quarter on Slide 10. For the third quarter of 2021, EVRG delivered adjusted earnings of $455 million or a $1.98 per share, compared to $393 million or a $1.73 per share in the third quarter of 2020. The 14% increase in third quarter adjusted EPS was driven by the following items, as shown on the chart from left to right. First, there were significantly more cooling degree days this past quarter as compared to the third quarter of 2020, resulting in $0.20 of favorable contribution from weather. Adjusting for milder than normal weather experienced in the third quarter of 2020, the third quarter of this year saw $0.13 of EPS versus normal weather assumed in our original plan. The strong favorable weather impacts this quarter was partially offset by 1.2% decline in weather-normalized demand or approximately $0.06 per share. Higher transmission revenue resulting from our ongoing investments to enhance our transmission infrastructure drove about $0.06 per share. Other income increased $0.04 per share, driven by higher investment earnings from some of our investments in early-stage energy solution companies. Income tax-related items, which include the impact of the Kansas incomes tax rate exemption effective this year, and higher amortization of excess deferred income taxes, partially offset by the timing of tax credit recognition, to maintain our effective income tax rate for the year, drove a net increase of $0.04 per share. And finally, other items, which consist primarily of higher depreciation and amortization and property tax expense, as well as the impact of shares issued to Bluescape in April, were partially offset by lower O&M, which when combined represent a net $0.03 decrease. I'll turn next to year-to-date results which you'll find on Slide 11. For the 9 months ended September 30th, 2021, adjusted earnings were $775 million or $3.38 per share compared to $642 million or $2.82 per share, for the same period last year. Again, moving from left to right on the slide, our year-to-date adjusted EPS drivers versus 2020, include the following
David Campbell :
Thank you, Kirk. For everyone on the call, we appreciate your time with us today. And now we'd be happy to take your questions.
Operator:
As a reminder, [Operator Instructions]. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from the line of Shar Pourreza of Guggenheim Partners. Your question, please.
Shar Pourreza:
Good morning, guys.
David Campbell :
Good morning, Shar.
Shar Pourreza:
Just a couple of questions here if I may. First, the updated guidance for 2021, which obviously even as weaker weather-normalized demand is somewhat noticeably higher, right? Are you including any pull-forward of OpEx from '22? I'm just try to get a sense on potential flexibility in next year's guide, especially as we're seeing some demand drag continuing to -- into '22 versus your prior expectations.
David Campbell :
So Shar, as Kirk mentioned, we do have a series of timing and phasing of operating costs, some of that's timing within this year, some of that's -- go forwards from the forward plan. And we're not adjusting our guidance for 2022, the only time you have the opportunity to do prudent managing your costs. You look at that across the four planned years and it can help [Indiscernible] execution. But given the size of the numbers, we're not changing our guidance for 2022, but as companies do in this circumstance with some favorable weather, we are certainly looking at how, and we'll continue to look at how. Are there pull-forward items, or are there items that we can address this year? There are limits in what you can do in that range. But as -- all companies look at that piece. So [Indiscernible] of it does relate to timing into our year in '21.
Shar Pourreza:
Got it. See, you have some contingency there to cushion.
David Campbell :
We're not changing our guidance in 2022 but we're -- we feel good about our ongoing execution trajectory.
Shar Pourreza:
Okay. Got it. And then just on the O&M side, obviously, some pretty sizable reductions you're expecting through '25. How do we sort of think about where you're currently guiding versus the overall opportunity set? You see more -- do you see more to squeeze, especially as you guys are shooting for Tier 1 utility status and even further, looking at asset-level transition opportunities. 25% reduction is a lot, the question is, can you do more?
David Campbell :
That's great question, Shar. I know we've talked about this on prior calls. I think the Company has done a terrific job for Kirk, since my arrival coming in this year, a lot of cost savings achieved post-merger '19 and '20. Ongoing trajectory of those reductions. And we've [indiscernible] up as part of our Investor Day, we described how we think there's an ongoing opportunity for 1% to 2% productivity gains. So, we think it will be along the lines of executing the plan that we've laid out and then continuing to drive improvements across our business through a systematic process. I think that's how we view our opportunity set is really driving that continuous improvement over time, consistent with what we've laid out in the Investor Day plan.
Shar Pourreza:
Got it. And then just lastly for me, if I may just on the IRP how much did you file earlier this year, we've already seen multiple stakeholder groups make some noise in the Kansas docket. Staff made some positive and constructive comments. Um, what should we be watching for in the process for the balance of the year across the states. And more importantly, is there any concerns around the IRP related spending opportunities in light of some of the input cost pressures? We've seen in the renewable space. I mean, how do you price in these headwinds as we think about future generation opportunities through 26 and beyond. Thank you.
David Campbell :
Thanks Shar on the and I'll ask Kirk to supplement the commentary we filed for predetermination relating to the 190 megawatts of solar. So we'll have the chance to review that spend program and in our planned addition as part of a regulatory fine before we advanced the process. Know part of why that program was sized down a little bit in scope from the initial estimates at 50 megawatts reflected the overall supply chain environment and maturity of the solar pipeline in SPP relative to the more mature pipeline on the wind side. We will continue to evaluate that, but we like that we have that opportunity to have that dialog proactively as part of the pre -determination process. And we've launched the RFP for wind in 2024, and 2025, as we described. So we'll see where those bids come out now. We'll see how long the supply chain pressures advance, but I noted that we've got a target for reaching agreements related the IRPs, at least for the first year and mid-2022. So we have a good sense what -- plenty of time to evaluate what we're seeing in the supply chain, to make sure that what we're achieving drives our objectives of reliability, affordability, and sustainability. Always keep a focus on that. I think the intervener comments and the IRP proceedings are relatively consistent with what you'd expect, which probably, reflects that we're striking a balance in what we're striving to do and we'll continue to do that, being mindful of the affordability impacts, as you note, of some of the supply chain pressures. And that's why we're trying to take a pretty systematic and diligent approach to how we tackle it. Kirk, anything to add?
Kirk Andrews :
Just building on that last point. Certainly we're -- my club and I'm not immune to seeing the cost and supply chain pressures. They're affecting across many sectors, including, but not limited to renewables. Part of the reason why we made the slight shift that we did rather magnitude of the solar and advancing wind. But beyond that as we indicated our Investor Day, we're looking at all facets of opportunities. Obviously, David mentioned we launched recently our RFP. That's our primary focus but we have some self-development opportunities. The potential around some of those PPA s buy-ins and repowering and given on -- given the existing dialogue around some of the aspects of the billback better framework, which is still a framework, but some of the potential for tax incentives, because that can be potential mitigants and help aid affordability, help offset some of that cost pressure for us. I think we've got a lot of levers and flexibility where that's concerned, but we're certainly laser-focused on finding the right blend from an affordability and a reliability standpoint on that -- on the renewables front.
Shar Pourreza:
I appreciate it. That's great color. Thanks, guys.
David Campbell :
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith, of Bank of America. Your question, please.
Darius Anderson:
Hi. Good morning, this is Darius on for Julian. Thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to start off --
David Campbell :
Good morning.
Darius Anderson:
Good morning. Just wanted to start off on thinking about the average customer bills as we head into the heating season, obviously quite a bit of news out there about fuel volatility and the impact that could have on bills, do you have any quantified sort of your average estimate for how much bills could increase either on a percentage basis or on a dollar-per-customer basis? And could you perhaps maybe speak to how that compares to your regional neighbors? I know there's fuel mixed differences, so I think that might go in your favor, but if you could speak to that, please.
David Campbell :
Sure. it's, obviously, something we track closely. And we have a much smaller natural gas position than some of our neighbors. I can't comment on where their bill trajectory will go, but I'm sure you've been able to to note the relative mix of gas relative to others. We about -- in 2020, only about 5% of our fuel and purchase power was natural gas related. Natural gas price movements have not had a significant impact. We do have a relatively sizable amount of coal, so the 40% range, and it has certainly been moving in PRB pricing. We've got some protection around that from a hedging perspective over the near term. If those pricing pressures persist all the way through 2022, then obviously we will have to see what those impacts are and see what the net impacts are in the wholesale market of course as well, we have a very sizable wind portfolio. And that wind portfolio will benefit relatively from higher prices when their fuel prices don't move, of course, on the wind side. So, our net we are in a lower general bill season where our enterprise is summer heavy. So the highest customer bills are typically in the summer. So in the fall, we're rolling into what are typically significantly lower customer bills. But it's something we're very focused on. Again, net relative to those who are more natural gas intensive, they are like to be facing more intensive fuel costs. But again, all depends on what their hedge approaches. But on a relative mix basis, we don't have the same exposure natural gases haves.
Darius Anderson:
Okay, great. Thank you for that detail. Just on the predetermination filing in Kansas that you referred to in the opening remarks, could we potentially see -- I know you talked about the time-frame for when you expect an order. I think you said mid '22. Should we expect to see a securitization filings that shortly thereafter, assuming you get a favorable order in that predetermination docket?
David Campbell :
Yes. So that proceeding includes asking for securitization relating to the retirement of the coal facilities in Lawrence, since the retirement of Lawrence unit 4, as well as the shared coal handling facilities. It's relatively modest in size, but we would expect six securitization relating to that assuming that proceeding goes as planned.
Darius Anderson:
Okay. Great. I'll leave it there. Thank you very much.
David Campbell :
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And next question comes from Michael Sullivan of Wolfe Research. Your question, please.
Michael Sullivan:
Hey, everyone. Good morning.
David Campbell :
Good Morning, Michael.
Michael Sullivan:
Kirk, I just wanted to follow-up on some of the comments you made a little bit ago on the Biden Build Back Better plan, if maybe you just want to give a little more color on what some of the changes there could mean for you guys in terms of the Wind RFP, the PPA buy-ins, and then maybe also direct pay. Just how we should be thinking about some of the puts and takes there.
Kirk Andrews :
Sure, Michael. Starting on the wind side, obviously the prospects of an extension in returning to full power, if you will, on the production tax credit side, that is certainly a net positive. Both in the context as I've mentioned before, from an affordability standpoint, which we're very focused on. The magnitude of those tax credits and the reliability of over a longer period of time being more robust. I think, that's added benefit in terms of meeting our objectives around affordability. It also speaks to greater flexibility in terms of the cadence, and pace, and mix of renewable investment. And as you'll recall, we pulled forward. Some of our wind investments to take advantage, or at least to in account for the existing expiry of the production tax credits. Obviously an extension thereof, and an increase thereof would give us greater flexibility where that's concerned. And I think the knock-on effect areas, as we mentioned, certainly the buy-in of PPA is one thing but combining those PPAs with repowering’s and those repowering’s are going to be certainly depended upon taking advantage of those production tax credits. That gives us a greater tailwind on the latter portion of that two-pronged strategy about that PPA buy-in combining of repowering the last piece of it, I would say is on the solar side where the investment tax credit is concerned. Certainly in the prospects of direct pay, for example, which is a more efficient way to deal with that ITC, which we have to deal with all-in-one lump sum. Also, a benefit on the solar side to us, again, from the affordability standpoint. and how that's reflected in rates. A lot of details to come. There are certain requirements there around that, but we need to see more details on -- in terms of things like wage fairness and domestic content. But we feel optimistic that, both on the solar and wind side, that certainly creates a tailwind for us, both in terms of flexibility and affordability for our customers, as we make good on our renewable’s objectives.
Michael Sullivan:
Great, super helpful. And just a follow-up there. Any thoughts on potential cash flow or balance sheet impact from things like direct pay?
Kirk Andrews :
To some extent, yes. I think in terms of the direct pay aspect of things that I mentioned before, obviously, as we reached the middle of the decade, we gain a greater appetite for cash taxes and obviously the ITC is an offset to that, to the extent to which it becomes direct pay and that isn't as directly impact on our cash flows. But an increase in the magnitude of the PTCs can help offset it's just another form through which we can take advantage of that tax appetite. Net again, I'd see that's certainly a positive. Maybe it's just a different mix and probably, or take advantage of our increasing tax appetite once we reached the middle of the decade and thereafter.
Michael Sullivan:
Great. And just the last one, kind of small, but on the Power Marketing benefit that you guys are realizing in '21, that's in the new guide that that's separate from?EW3? and just anymore color on that?
Kirk Andrews :
Sure. Yes, that's correct. Good question. As you recall, we did have some Power Marketing margins that we earned during the winter weather event. Those remain and have been excluded from our adjusted EPS. The upside or the out-performance as I termed it, is in addition to, or above and beyond that item that we'd excluded from our adjusted earnings. So we had certain expectations going into the year. And the Power Marketing businesses has just exceeded those expectations. Again, above and beyond the excluded item there.
David Campbell :
Still a small proportion of our total business -- Oh, yes. -- But, I think, we are -- if you look across power marketing Evergy Ventures, Tran source, Prairie Wind, altogether, it's, even in the revised guidance with the stronger performance, a little under 5% -- or less than 5% of the earnings.
Michael Sullivan:
Okay, great, thanks a lot. Go [Indiscernible], Kirk.
Kirk Andrews :
Thank you. Your mouth to God's ear. Thank you.
David Campbell :
Okay. Moving on from the [Indiscernible] inner joke circle, other questions?
Operator:
Our next question comes from Michael Lapides of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Michael Lapides :
Hey, guys. Thank you for taking my question. A high-level one about the re-powering opportunity. Can you remind us, how many megawatts of wind do you have under PPA currently? And how many of those are contracts that are, call it ten years old or older?
Kirk Andrews :
Sure Michael. It's Kirk. It's about 3.8 gigawatts, in total, in terms of our PPA portfolio. And as we had laid out, I think on the Investor Day in one of our slides, which kind of showed the roll-off and we're very focused on the subset of that portion in terms of contracts. Those contracts really don't begin expiring till just after the middle of the decade. But our focus here is on the expiry of the PTCs. We've got a little more than 1.2 gigawatts of that or almost 1.3 gigawatts of that 3.8 gigawatts, who's PPA or PTCs rather the production tax credits, are expiring between now and the middle of the decade. As those PPA or PTCs expire, we think that's probably the most meaningful subset of those 3.8 gigawatts PPAs that we're focused on in the near-term while re-powering and buying opportunities. Because our counter parties have obviously taken full advantage of that point of all in PTCs. And I think that's probably the targets that we're looking at, if that helps.
Michael Lapides :
Got it. And if you do a buy-in, a couple of things. First of all, that's not embedded in your capex guidance. So the annual rate base guidance that would be upside to that. And then the second question, lots of those projects have project debt. How would you -- would you just basically take out the project debt or assume -- or most of those on -- have project debt, that was an amortizing loan so you're near the tail end of that debt? I'm just curious about taking a project off the books of a non-regulated developer and putting into a utilities rate base.
Kirk Andrews :
Yeah good question. I think we probably would not look to transfer obviously, the project debt because it's relatively fully amortized. It would probably be a full buy-in and so we purchased this on an unlevered basis and obviously some of those proceeds would go to take out the existing project debt. Think about it as a pure rate base investment on the PPA buy-in side.
David Campbell :
And Michael, your -- first part of question, you are correct that none of this is in our current capex styles that was PPA buying a repowering would -- wherever we get those negotiated, those would be upside or in addition to our current guidance. Yes.
Michael Lapides :
Got it. Thank you, guys. Much appreciated.
David Campbell :
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Paul Patterson of Glenrock Associates. Your line is open.
Paul Patterson:
Good morning.
David Campbell :
Morning, Paul.
Paul Patterson:
Just -- It's just -- I apologize, but if we could just go over the investment income and the expectations for 2022. When I'm looking at slide 14, I assume that the investment income will -- let me ask this. So what are you -- and I apologize for not just completely getting this. But in 2021, what is the expected investment income in total? I've used $0.12 so far today, so just today. But what would the stack and everything else that you're talking about -- where is it going to start of come in in 2021?
Kirk Andrews :
Sure. In 2021 on the Power Marketing side, we've probably got up about $0.05 of total impact from investment income that comes from a couple of sources. Some of that is, we like a lot of other utilities invest in other funds, Energy Impact Partners is 1 of those. So some of that is the market. Some of that is, as I mentioned before earlier in the year, on a direct investment side, we actually had an actual monetization of that and that's probably the disproportionate share of that. Through the first half of the year is that monetization events or the combination of those 2 things. Obviously, that contributed to exceeding our expectations on the upside, obviously.
David Campbell :
And I'll just clarify. Kirk [Indiscernible] Power Marketing, but that's the average events. [Indiscernible]
Kirk Andrews :
Evergy Ventures. Sorry. Of Evergy Ventures, the investor mark. Thanks, David. And then if you look forward into 2022, and beyond, as I mentioned before, that $0.05 is out-performance. On an ongoing basis, certainly in our '22 guidance, it's more like a penny or two. On the Evergy Ventures contribution.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. Great. Okay. And then the rest of my questions have been answered. hanks so much.
David Campbell :
Thank you, Paul.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Travis Miller of Morning Star. Your question, please. Travis, please make sure your line is immediate and if in a speakerphone lift the handset., All right. At this time, I'd like to turn the call back over to David Campbell for closing remarks. Sir?
David Campbell :
Great. Thank you very much. We appreciate all of you joining us this morning. And we look forward to seeing many of you in person next week at EI. Signing off.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Thank you for standing by. And welcome to the Second Quarter 2021 Evergy, Inc. Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker’s presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the call over to Lori Wright, Vice President, Investor Relations and Treasurer. Please go ahead.
Lori Wright:
Thank you, Michelle. Good morning, everyone. And welcome to Evergy's second quarter call. Thank you for joining us this morning. Today's discussion will include forward-looking information. Slide two and the disclosure in our SEC filings contain a list of some of the factors that could cause future results to differ materially from our expectations and include additional information on non-GAAP financial measures. The releases issued this morning, along with today's webcast slides and supplemental financial information for the quarter are available on the main page of our website at investors.evergy.com. On the call today, we have David Campbell, Evergy's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Kirk Andrews, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. David will cover our second quarter highlights, our latest regulatory and legislative priorities and preview our upcoming Investor Day. Kirk will cover in more detail the second quarter results, the latest on sales and customers and our financial outlook for the remainder of the year. Other members of management are with us and will be available during the question-and-answer portion of the call. I will now turn the call over to David.
David Campbell:
Thanks, Lori. And good morning, everyone. I'll begin on slide five. This morning, we reported second quarter adjusted earnings of $0.85 per share compared to $0.68 per share a year ago, equal to a 25% increase. On a period-over-period basis, these results were primarily driven by higher transmission margin, an increase in weather-normalized demand, higher other income and income tax benefits. On our prior earnings call, I highlighted that our nuclear plant, Wolf Creek, had started its planned refueling outage. I'm pleased to report that the Wolf Creek team completed the outage under budget, continuing the excellent operational performance at the plant. Company-wide, we've maintained a steady trend of strong cost management as we strengthen our continuous improvement culture. Our team's execution has enabled a solid start to the year, and we are reaffirming our 2021 adjusted EPS guidance of $3.20 to $3.40 per share. We plan on giving an updated perspective on 2021 performance as part of our Investor Day next month. This morning, we're also reaffirming our target of compound annual EPS growth of 68% from 2019 through 2024. Moving on to slide six, I'll provide a summary of our regulatory and legislative priorities and recent activities. First, with respect to our sustainability transformation plan dockets. We completed the final STP workshops in Kansas and Missouri, wrapping up the items outlined in both procedural schedules. These dockets will remain open as we continue to file responsive follow-up information. As I've said before, this constructive process has been beneficial as it has allowed us to educate and inform our stakeholders on our strategic business plan, while also providing a channel for receiving constructive feedback from the parties. Another policy priority that we have identified is securitization legislation. While passage of this legislation was not critical to the near term elements of our plan, through hard work with staff and other parties in both states, we are pleased that securitization was passed this year in both Kansas and Missouri. Kansas House Bill 2072 was signed into law in April, while Missouri House Bill 734 was signed by Governor Parson in early July and becomes law at the end of this month. Given the filing deadlines for our long-term resource plan in both states, securitization financing was not considered in the analysis relating to our respective integrated resource plans. However, having the law in place in both states, we'll factor into our ongoing analysis of the preferred plan for the future evolution of our generation portfolio and the approach that will optimize affordability, reliability and sustainability. Securitization is particularly helpful with respect to optimizing the affordability aspect of our ongoing generation fleet transition. Along with enabling the cost-effective handling of extraordinary costs and un-depreciated values, the securitization law on Kansas also includes predetermination features. This will allow us to collaborate with regulators on the topic of removing coal from rate base and replacing it with renewables in advance of implementing any actions. Within the next few months, we plan to file for predetermination of our latest plans for the retirement of coal at the Lawrence Energy Center and the upcoming solar edition in Kansas. The Missouri legislation shares many features in common, but there are distinguishing elements. For example, in Kansas, a predetermination is required before retiring coal with the securitization financing order. The Missouri decisional prudence process is similar to predetermination, though in Missouri, it is optional rather than mandatory, and Missouri approach contemplates an asset retirement plan that can be broad in nature. The Missouri law also refers explicitly to evaluating the retention of coal and rate base for reliability purposes, even if capacity factors remain relatively low. For example, due to such factors as seasonal coal operations or low SPP energy prices as more renewables come online. In addition, the Missouri legislation provides for a new investment in replacement assets up to an amount equal to the securitized assets. In both states, these features will help to enable a well planned and predictable process as we advance our fleet transition. I'll turn now to winter storm Uri costs. In Kansas, we've been granted authority to defer these costs and we filed an application seeking a recovery in return of storm impacts through fuel adjustment mechanisms starting in April 2022. The net impact for Kansas Central would result in approximately $115 million of costs recovered from customers over a 2 year period. At Kansas Metro, during winter storm Uri, we experienced higher than normal off-system sales. These sales exceeded the fuel and purchase power costs during the event. As a result, the increased margin will benefit Kansas Metro customers by an estimated $35 million, which will be passed through the fuel clause [ph] over a 1 year period beginning in April 2022. In Missouri, we have requested similar AAO deferral treatment for the winter weather costs and expect a commission order on this process later this year. Metro customers on the Missouri side will receive their allocated portion of the higher off-system sales margins, which we currently estimate is around $25 million in customer benefit, which we have asked to deliver to the fuel adjustment mechanism over a 1 year period. Conversely, Missouri West customers were subject to higher fuel and purchase power costs during the winter weather event. Given the amount of these higher costs upon receipt of deferral authority, we intend to utilize the recently signed securitization legislation to request commission approval to securitize the excess costs and recover them over an extended period. Specifically, we expect to request securitization of approximately $295 million with recovery over a 15 year period, which would minimize and smooth the impact for our customers. Slide seven highlights topics that we expect to cover during our upcoming Investor Day, which will be held virtually on September 21. At the event, we expect to focus on our strategic business objectives and overall priorities for the business. Along with an update on STP execution through 2024, we expect to comment on 2021 and provide a first look at the company's 2022 earnings outlook. We'll describe how Evergy is driving operational excellence across our business, including reliability, customer service, generation availability and cost. We'll discuss our capital deployment and infrastructure investment plans. We'll also profile our ongoing focus on regional rate competitiveness, which is a key priority for our team as it is for our customers and our regulators. Our objective as a company is to become recognized for driving operational excellence and delivering excellent service to our customers at regionally competitive rates. We aspire to be clear in our objectives and consistent in our execution so that our regulators, investors and all of our stakeholders know what to expect and know that we will deliver. We will also discuss our long-term growth drivers and objectives, including those relating to our ESG profile and generation fleet transition. Investor Day will give Kirk and I, along with our colleagues, a chance to expand on the significant value potential we see at Evergy. Along these lines, slide eight summarizes Evergy's investment thesis. As an all-electric Midwestern utility, well positioned geographically to capitalize on cost effective renewables options, we strive for consistency and performance and being known for execution and delivering results. Customers are at the forefront as affordable and reliable service are paramount objectives. Operational excellence is a critical enabler to achieving these objectives, and we are committed to a continuous improvement path in reliability, customer service, transmission and distribution services and fleet operations. Stakeholder collaboration and constructive relationships with our regulators and other key partners in Kansas and Missouri are also foundational. The passage of securitization legislation in both states was a great example of that collaborative process and action, and we look forward to an open constructive dialogue with stakeholders throughout the years ahead. As we've described, infrastructure improvements are featured in our sustainability transformation plan. Investments in grid modernization and the ongoing transformation of our generation fleet will enable us to better leverage technology, improve resiliency and efficiency and help us to optimize across the objectives of affordability, reliability and sustainability. Disciplined cost management and rigorous performance benchmarking are necessary complements to our investment program in order to ensure that our service and rates remain cost competitive and affordable. The company has established a strong track record in cost management since the merger, and we see ongoing opportunities to maintain that trajectory. The final element of our investment thesis that I'll highlight is financial excellence, including a strong balance sheet and an attractive total shareholder return, driven by our targeted 6% to 8% annual EPS growth from 2019 through 2024, plus our dividend yield. In summary, we are very excited about the opportunities for our company during this period of change in our industry, and we are committed to the sustained effort that will be required to deliver against our high performance objectives. We look forward to discussing our strategy and investment thesis in greater depth next month. I will now turn the call over to Kirk.
Kirk Andrews:
Thanks, David. And good morning, everyone. I'll start with results for the quarter on slide 10. For the second quarter of 2021, Evergy delivered adjusted earnings of $195 million or $0.85 per share compared to $154 million or $0.68 per share in the second quarter of 2020. The 25% increase in second quarter adjusted EPS was driven by the following items as shown on the chart from left to right. First, although cooling degree days were relatively consistent versus the second quarter of 2020, we saw fewer heating degree days this past quarter, resulting in a $0.02 per share unfavorable contribution from weather versus 2020. This weather variance was more than offset by the following, a 3.4% increase in weather-normalized demand or approximately $0.03 per share, higher transmission revenue drove about $0.05 per share, resulting from our ongoing investments in transmission. O&M expense was approximately $11 million lower or $0.04 per share due to lower bad debt expense during the quarter as collections and aging of receivables improved. Other income increased $0.03 per share, driven by a $4 million increase in equity AFUDC, $5 million of higher investment earnings resulting from unrealized gains on equity investments and $2 million of higher COLI proceeds. Finally, we realized higher income tax benefits due to increased amortization of excess deferred income taxes, or EBIT, and the timing of tax credit recognition to maintain our projected annual effective tax rate. Adding to our first quarter results to these numbers, I'll turn next to year-to-date results, which you'll find on slide 11. For the six months ended June 30, 2021, adjusted earnings were $320 million or $1.40 per share compared to $248 million or $1.09 per share for the same period last year. Again, moving from left to right, our year-to-date adjusted EPS drivers versus 2020 include the following, the colder winter weather during the first quarter more than offset fewer heating degree days in the second quarter, leading to $0.05 per share favorable contribution from weather year-to-date versus 2020. As weather overall during the first half of 2020 was near normal, this $0.05 per share also represents the EPS contribution versus normal weather. Weather normalized demand increased just over 2% year-to-date, driving approximately $0.05 of EPS. As expected, higher transmission revenues helped drive a $0.06 increase versus 2020. Year-to-date, we've also realized approximately $0.08 of increased earnings from lower tax expense, driven by higher amortization of excess deferred income taxes, as well as accelerated timing within the year of tax credit recognition. As you may recall from my remarks during the first quarter, this latter item, primarily resulted from the increase in earnings during the first quarter, as our recognition of benefits from tax credits is driven by the shape of pretax earnings during the year. This item represents approximately $0.05 of positive EPS year-to-date and is merely the result of this intra-year timing. Consequently, we do not expect this $0.05 per share to result in a variance to our full year results. Finally, $0.07 of the year-to-date EPS increase was the result of higher equity AFUDC, higher unrealized gains on equity investment and higher COLI proceeds. Although COLI proceeds represent a year-over-year increase versus 2020, where the majority of our earnings from this item came late in the year, our year-to-date contribution from COLI in 2021 is nonetheless modestly below expectations. Turning to slide 12, I'll provide a brief update on recent sales and customer trends. Weather normalized retail sales increased 3.4% during the second quarter as compared to last year. This was primarily driven by the partial recovery of the commercial industrial sector from the initial shutdowns from COVID-19 in 2020. Residential sales decreased compared to last year when extensive lockdowns kept individuals at home. While these shifts indicate a continued trend toward more normal demand mix, Commercial and Industrial recovery has been slower than expected, while Residential demand remains above expectations. Year-to-date, weather-normalized demand increased 2.2%. When combined with favorable weather year-to-date, overall sales were in line with our expectations. Turning finally to slide 13, based on our year-to-date results and outlook for the balance of the year, we are reaffirming our adjusted EPS guidance of $3.20 to $3.40 per share. And as we continue to execute our cost management and rate base investment objectives as part of the STP, we are also reaffirming our long-term compounded annual EPS growth target of 6% to 8% from 2019 through 2024. We've had a solid start to the year, but with about half of our annual earnings typically showing up in the third quarter, we will remain focused on execution through the summer. And I look forward to speaking with all of you again during our Investor Day on September 21st. And with that, I'll turn it back over to David.
David Campbell:
Why don't we go ahead and shift to questions. Let's open up to Q&A.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Michael Lapides:
Hey, guys. Thank you for taking my questions. I have two, totally unrelated to each other. First, on thinking about the long-term generation plan, I want to make sure I heard you correct, that your original plan, your STP did not incorporate securitization. How does securitization potentially impact the plan? And how do you think about the reliability needs of having solid fuel assets on the system, given just what your region and a large swath of the country over the last six months have experienced?
David Campbell:
Good morning, Michael. So - and thank you for your question. That will give me an opportunity to clarify. So the securitization legislation didn't impact our financial plan outlook in '21 to '24. So the passage of the law didn't impact the growth rate that we teed up in our objectives during that time period. It has been a long-term objective and we view it as a pretty important enabler beyond that forecast period. So passage of law in both states, we think is going to be a helpful enabler, as we work the plan over the coming decades. Now we've published our Integrated Resource Plan. And in that, you'll see that the phasing and pacing of coal retirements is one that is relatively - it's done on a relatively steady basis, as opposed to accelerated over a near-term time frame. We do think that the utilization of coal will increase over time. But part of the factor impacting the phasing of retirement of coal and solid fuel reflects the factors that you identified, which is making sure that we can ensure reliability. The extreme weather that we saw in February and the first rolling outages in STP and then the extreme heat in parts of the country that we've seen, we haven't seen extremely in our part of the country that we have seen a couple of resource alerts in STP so far this summer. And obviously, in other parts of the country, it has been extreme and has led to some strains on the grid. All reinforce that making sure the even eye [ph] on reliability is very important as you work on the - as you think about the fleet transition, and we think securitization will help. All that said, we updated our emissions reduction targets, as part of our last quarter call. As you saw, we've got a 70% reduction by 2030 objective and a net zero target by 2045. So we think we're driving to strike the right balance, and we'll constantly be looking at that to make sure that we're balancing across affordability, reliability and sustainability. Hopefully, that gets to your question.
Michael Lapides:
Yeah, that helps. That helps a ton. Follow-up, O&M has averaged about year-over-year, down about $12 million, $13 million a quarter. Kirk, should we assume a similar run rate when we think about the second half of the year? And then the pace of O&M reductions as you enter 2022, do you still see a pretty sizable cost savings opportunity for 2022 and beyond?
Kirk Andrews:
Thanks. Michael, we do. Just as a reminder, when you think about the year-to-date results or year-over-year differences, as I noted, one of those contributing factors, at least this year, we saw some favourability on bad debt expense, which is certainly a positive. Overall, our outlook for the year remains unchanged from the indications I gave on the fourth quarter call when we first introduced guidance. One of the key success factors that having joined the company in 2021 as the CFO, I can take little credit for, but the management team, as you'll recall, was able to deliver a cadence of O&M in 2020, which actually was in line with our 2021 objective. So we - if you think about it that way, we got a year ahead on our savings pace. So therefore, our expectation, as a reminder, as I indicated when we provided guidance initially was our year-over-year 2020 to '21 O&M, total O&M, we expect to be relatively flat, and we're on pace to deliver that. A little bit of intra-year timing is largely the contribution to what we're seeing year-to-date. But we do expect a good continued cadence of O&M reductions as we move forward into '21, '23. Going toward that target to be well comfortably below $1 billion a year by the time we get to 2024.
Michael Lapides:
Okay, Kirk. So I want to make sure I followed. Just for the second half of '21, you don't expect to see similar savings that you've seen year-over-year relative to the first half of '21?
Kirk Andrews:
No. And that would align with our expectation, which continues to be relatively flat year-over-year overall in O&M.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Thanks, Kirk.
Kirk Andrews:
You bet.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Julien Doumoulin-Smith of Bank of America. Your line is open.
Unidentified Analyst:
Hey, good morning. This is Darius on for Julien. Just wanted to ask about the retail customer count that you guys highlighted on one of your slides. It's pretty impressive at over 1% year-to-date. Just curious if you could talk a little bit about the composition of that, and perhaps how it compares against your expectations for the year? And perhaps how that might look on a prospective basis as well?
Kirk Andrews:
So sure, it's Kirk. Our customer growth, while it's certainly a good indicator year-over-year, the mix, I can't quote that off the top of the head, but largely in line with our expectations. However, as I also indicated, despite the fact we've got an increase in customer account, our overall utilization per customer is down year-over-year. That's in line with our expectations because we expected the impact of stay from home, which was most acute in the second quarter of last year to abate as people kind of return to work. That level of abatement has been a slower pace, right. So the stay at home effect on a utilization perspective, notwithstanding in fact, we did see that nice year-over-year increase in customers has been elevated relative to our expectations. And that certainly understand we expect that to continue a little longer now that we've got the impact of the Delta variant on the stay at home. But overall, despite the fact that we're certainly pleased with the overall increase in customer count. As we expected, the utilization rates per customer comparable year-over-year is down again due to that COVID effect.
Unidentified Analyst:
Great. Thank you. And one more, if I can. On your '25 CapEx, you've had the potential for a $250 million increase in your last couple of slide deck. Just curious if you could maybe discuss the puts and takes, as far as what is driving or what will drive the decision as far as when to formally include that in the plan?
David Campbell:
So thanks for the question, and we look - we're glad to clarify that. So we plan to lay that out as part of our Investor Day and just be more specific around it. So we work through our annual planning process with our operating team. We also consider, of course, the renewables plans that we have, and we're going to plan on giving you - giving the Street a more firm view of that as part of our Investor Day, just rolling forward into the next year.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay, great. I'll leave it there. Thank you very much.
David Campbell:
Thank you.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] There are no further questions. I'd like to turn the call back over to David Campbell for your closing remarks.
David Campbell:
Okay. Great. So I'll close with a comment on 2021, and sort of implicit in some of the questions we received, just so I'll go ahead and hit at this. As I mentioned, and as Kirk noted, we're maintaining our guidance range. There are some items in the first half. And as a general matter, Q3 is our biggest quarter - just some timing into the first half. Q3 is our biggest quarter. COLI had some uncertainty. We'll, of course, continue to model the impact of the pandemic. But all that said, given where we are now, we would be disappointed if our results in 2021 don't end up in the top half for the full year. We'll point to provide an update on 2021 as part of our Analyst Day in September. But we're pleased with our solid start. And we appreciate your time with us today. And we wish you a good day. Thank you.
Operator:
This does conclude the program. You may all disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the First Quarter 2021 Evergy, Inc. Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker’s presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today Ms. Lori Wright, Vice President Corporate Planning, Investor Relations and Treasurer. Ma'am, the floor is yours.
Lori Wright:
Thank you, Lauren. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Evergy's first quarter call. Thank you for joining us this morning. Today's discussion will include forward-looking information. Slide 2 and the disclosure in our SEC filings contain a list of some of the factors that could cause future results to differ materially from our expectations and include additional information on non-GAAP financial measures. The release was issued this morning, along with today's webcast slides and supplemental financial information for the quarter, are available on the main page of our website at investors.evergy.com. On the call today, we have David Campbell, Evergy's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Kirk Andrews, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. David will cover our first quarter highlights, our latest regulatory and legislative priorities, and our enhanced ESG profile. Kirk will cover in more detail the first quarter results, the latest on sales and customers and our financial outlook. Other members of management are with us and will be available during the question-and-answer portion of the call. I will now call -- turn the call over to David.
David Campbell:
Thank you, Lori, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin on slide 5. Evergy delivered strong first quarter results and remains well positioned to meet our objectives for the year. Adjusted earnings per share for the quarter were $0.55 compared to $0.41 a year ago. As Kirk will describe in his remarks, the increase in adjusted earnings was driven by favorable weather, income tax benefits and higher other income. With a solid start to the year, we are affirming our 2021 adjusted EPS guidance of $3.20 to $3.40 per share. We are also reaffirming our targeted long-term annual EPS growth of 68% from 2019 through 2024. As we discussed during last quarter's call, in February, our region in the Southwest Power Pool experienced the most intense and sustained extreme weather event that we've seen in decades. The February extreme weather event resulted in significantly higher natural gas and purchased power costs, net of wholesale revenues, which totaled approximately $340 million. We provide a breakdown of this total amount by utility jurisdiction in our 10-Q. Of note, this number remains subject to resettlement activity and further review by SPP. We expect to be able to recover substantially all of these costs through multiple potential regulatory mechanisms. In selecting the path forward, we will work with regulators to implement solutions that smooth the impact for our customers. In Kansas, the KCC already issued an accounting authority order or AAO, which allows for the creation of a regulatory asset to track these incremental costs associated with the weather event. We expect to have resolution to the path and time line for recovery later this year. In Missouri, we have filed a notice that we intend to seek AAO treatment for the net fuel and purchase power costs incurred through the extreme weather event at Missouri West. We expect to make this AAO filing by midyear. Securitization legislation is under active review in Missouri and if passed, will provide another potentially beneficial cost recovery approach that will enable both reducing and smoothing the impact of these costs for our customers. As in Kansas, we expect to have a clear sense for the recovery path in Missouri later this year. As I mentioned during last quarter's call, we have a small power marketing business that historically has earned between $15 million and $30 million in gross margin annually. I also described how this group achieved unusually high gross margins, during February's extreme weather event, driven by purchases of firm transmission to ERCOT and a relatively small long position in ERCOT. In total, the pre-tax contribution net of costs, from power marketing activity during the extreme weather event, is approximately $0.41 per share this quarter. Given the nonrecurring nature of these results, we have removed this amount net of tax from our adjusted EPS. The margin contributions from the business for the periods outside of this weather event will remain in the adjusted numbers consistent with our past practice in our original 2021 plan. As is also noted on slide 5, our nuclear station Wolf Creek is in the midst of its planned refueling outage. The plant has performed very well in recent years and has now completed its third consecutive breaker-to-breaker run between refuelings. A special thanks to the employees of Wolf Creek for their diligence and consistency in providing such reliable service to our customers. Slide 6 provides an update on some of our key regulatory and legislative initiatives. While we don't have general rate case proceedings on the calendar in 2021, we have had an active start to the year in both areas. I'll start first on the regulatory front. After months of working with stakeholders, we filed our Missouri Integrated Resource Plan or IRP last Friday. The IRP benefited from a collaborative stakeholder process, as we evaluated scenarios leading up to this filing. I'll go through some of the high points of the IRP on the next slide. Our Kansas IRP filing is due by July 1, although it is likely that we'll file a bit earlier. In parallel with the development of the IRPs informational dockets have been underway in both Kansas and Missouri relating to our Sustainability Transformation Plan or STP. After conducting multiple workshops over the last six months to educate and inform our stakeholders about our strategic plan, these dockets are nearing their conclusion. We appreciate the commissions in both states setting up these new and innovative processes to allow for feedback on our strategic plan. As we've consistently said since announcing the STP last year, the plan is designed to deliver significant cost savings, invest in infrastructure and advance the interest of all key stakeholders, with an overall focus on ensuring reliability, affordability and sustainability. We're pleased the overall intervener feedback is consistent with how we've described the goals and objectives of our balanced strategic plan. The expected final step in the Missouri procedural schedule is a workshop in early June. In addition, we'll file quarterly reports with the commission, if there are any material changes to the STP. The first such filing would be due on June 1. In Kansas, the STP workshop schedule for May 24 is the main remaining step in the schedule. In advance of the workshop, we'll file our response to comments filed in the Kansas STP docket. I'll now switch over to our legislative priorities, which have primarily focused on securitization. As it represents a cost-effective option to handle the retirement of assets that are not fully depreciated, securitization is a potential tool that could provide value for customers and the company, as we advance our generation fleet transition. As we've noted the passage of securitization in Kansas and Missouri is not necessary to enable the execution of our five-year plan. However, we have been very pleased with the constructive dialogue that has taken place regarding securitization in this year's legislative sessions in both states. We greatly appreciate the collaboration from our key stakeholders. On the Kansas side, House Bill 2072 was passed and became law in April 9 following Governor Kelly's signature. The bill generally has three parts. The first allows for extraordinary costs and for generation assets that are being retired any remaining undepreciated asset values to be considered for securitization. The second part allows the utility to use the proceeds from the securitized bonds to reinvest into areas such as generation, transmission and distribution or customer programs that enhance the customer experience. Lastly, the Kansas bill provides a predetermination process for taking generation assets out of service similar to the process that has been in place in Kansas for building new generating assets. In Missouri, consideration of the securitization bill is ongoing. Draft bills have passed with strong support in both the Missouri House and Senate and we are now in the final phases of the reconciliation process. We are grateful for the engagement and support of legislators and key stakeholders in Missouri. While there are many factors that impact the timing and ability to transition from coal generation not the least of which is grid reliability, obviously, one of the most important questions is affordability. Securitization is potentially significant enabling tool through the cost-effective handling of extraordinary costs and undepreciated values. Retirement also allows for cost savings for customers due to reduced operating and fuel costs resulting from the shift from coal to renewables. As structured securitization also provides a mechanism to collaborate with our regulators on the process of removing coal from rate base and replacing that rate base with renewables. While there are certainly procedural mechanics to work through over time we expect to fully utilize these tools to further advance our goal of keeping rates competitive. The first step will likely take place later this year with the potential use of the predetermination process for the planned retirement of the Lawrence Energy Center and solar additions in Kansas in 2023. Slide 7 lays out the highlights of our recent Missouri IRP filing. You've heard us talk about the balanced approach to the STP. Our strategic approach to the IRP reflects a similar balance. Our Integrated Resource Plan is focused on reliability, affordability and sustainability delivering to power customers need at a competitive price and with a dramatically improved environmental profile. The IRP process involved the evaluation of more than 50 distinct resource plans through a multifaceted review process and extensive stakeholder feedback, resulting in the identification of a preferred plan. Evaluation criteria included the ongoing cost of existing generation, commodity price scenarios, the potential costs of environmental compliance and CO2 regulation and the cost of alternative resources among other factors The IRP review also took into consideration the evolving mission of our fossil generation plants. Due to market conditions and ongoing growth in renewables, plants that once provided baseload capacity are increasingly required to act more as a backup for wind and solar resources. Just to cite a recent example
Kirk Andrews:
Thanks, David, and good morning everyone. I'll start with the results for the quarter on slide 11. We reported first quarter 2021 adjusted earnings of $0.55 per share compared to $0.41 per share in the first quarter of 2020. As David mentioned earlier, the unusually high margins achieved by our power marketing business during the winter weather event in February contributed approximately $0.41 per share of pretax GAAP earnings and we have excluded the after-tax impact of this item from our adjusted EPS for the first quarter. Remaining adjusted items for the quarter were consistent with our expectations. As shown in the chart from left to right, adjusted EPS was driven higher by a number of items as compared to the first quarter of 2020, including favorable weather with an 11% increase in heating degree days versus 2020; weather-normalized demand increase of 1.1% or approximately $0.02 per share, partially offset as expected by a slight increase in O&M driven by planned outages; approximately $6 million primarily from higher-equity AFUDC; and we realized higher income tax benefits due to increased amortization of excess deferred income taxes or EDIT; and the timing of tax credit recognition to maintain our projected annual effective tax rate. This latter item which represents approximately $0.04 per share merely reflects a shift in intra-year timing. With higher earnings in the first quarter, we recognized more of our expected annual benefit from tax credits and will thereby recognize less of that benefit over the balance of the year. As I mentioned, heating degree days were higher versus 2020. However, despite the extremely cold February weather, heating degree days for the full quarter were in line with historic levels due to a mild January and March resulting in little impact from weather compared to normal. Thus, the weather impact shown here was largely a result of milder-than-normal weather in the first quarter of 2020. Finally, as David mentioned, our various utility subsidiaries incurred higher-than-normal fuel and purchase power costs during the quarter. However, while Evergy incurred the cash impact of these costs during the quarter, substantially all of these costs were deferred. Pursuant to both the AAO order in Kansas and our pending AAO filing in Missouri, we'll be working with our regulators on constructive solutions to smooth the periodic effect of these extreme weather-related costs for our customers. Turning to slide 12 which gives an update on recent sales and customer trends. As I mentioned during the walk for the quarter, weather-normalized retail sales increased 1.1% for the first quarter compared to last year, signaling the continued resiliency we've seen in our service territory. And as the prior year first quarter was meaningfully less impacted by COVID, we expect a relative increase in demand to be more meaningful as we progress through the second quarter and continue to expect approximately 2% weather-normalized demand increase in 2021. As shown on the bottom half of this slide, the 1.1% increase in overall weather-normalized demand resulted from a mix of
David Campbell:
I will open up for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin.
Dariusz Lozny:
Hey, good morning. This is Dariusz Lozny on for Julien. I just wanted to ask about your Missouri IRP. If you anticipate pushback from customer groups that have historically been focused on the trajectory of rates and specifically two-year plan of keeping coal plants open for longer, while adding renewables sequentially, just curious how you think about balancing those impacts of obviously shifting to renewables but at the same time maintaining a customer build trajectory?
David Campbell:
Good morning. Thanks for the question. We do think that we're – the IRP that we developed in Missouri reflects a balanced approach. And it's focused on as you know rates and also reliability as well as sustainability. So we've got a paced and phased approach adding renewables. The first retirement, we're going to do is our Lawrence plant in Kansas, and our first solar addition will be – it's planned to the Kansas side as well. And you'll see that we phase in over time. We do expect that, you will see ongoing reductions in the amount of energy produced from our coal fleet. That will result in lower fuel and O&M costs as it's energy produced renewables resources, obviously is effectively zero marginal cost. So we do think it strikes a good balance. We have got a tremendous base of resources to pull from. So you'll note that, we're adding wind. In 2025 and 2026 we're planning to. There's no better place to add wind in a more cost-effective place to have wind in our jurisdiction. So we think we do strike that balance. One thing that we saw and our constituents saw as well through the winter weather events is that we need to make sure that we balance reliability. So we can further reduce the energy produced from coal reduce costs in that way, but help to maintain reliability with the phased report approach to retirements.
Dariusz Lozny:
Great. Thank you. And one more, just a housekeeping question, if I could. It looks like the 500 megawatts of wind that are in your IRP proposal are not in your CapEx slide in the latest presentation. Just curious at what point in the IRP process, do you anticipate gaining enough confidence in order to be able to add that CapEx in 2025?
David Campbell:
I'm sure that we'll talk about that as part of our Analyst Day in September, but it's part of the dialogue that we had. You saw that, we included a range for 2025 and that range was reflective of our baseline transmission/distribution infrastructure. But when we put out that plan, we hadn't yet completed the IRP exercise. It's obviously a dialogue that, we have. The most certainty in any integrated resource plan is in that first three year implementation period. We even had much discussion about the IRP that, we filed three years ago for example. I don't know, if many of you all are that familiar with this detail. So we know it's dynamic. Nevertheless, it is our expectation that the renewables investments will continue, and we'll talk more about that in our Analyst Day. But obviously, it's important to go through the process. We haven't yet filed the IRP. We still haven't filed the IRP in Kansas. So we want to make sure we respect the dialogue and the input that we received. And intervening information is important, as we saw with the winter weather event. So we'll say more about that at our Analyst Day. But as a technical matter, we did not include that in the range that we show for 2025 in our year-end call.
Dariusz Lozny:
Excellent. Thank you very much.
David Campbell:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Shar Pourreza. Your line is open.
Shar Pourreza:
Hey, good morning.
David Campbell:
Good morning, Shar.
Shar Pourreza:
So just a couple of quick ones. Obviously, the February storm and kind of the Biden administration's goals seem to have a real high interest in transmission. Just obviously, given Evergy's position on a seam and really the proximity of some great wind resources do you guys see additional opportunities for transmission spend in the near term, or would you even consider partnering with others? And I'm thinking similar projects like the Greenbelt D.C. line. So, how are you sort of thinking about that?
David Campbell:
I think that, the transmission dialogue is going to be an important one. We already have a partnership in place on the transmission side, with AEP and that's a partnership in which we participated for many years and will continue to. I think there will be incremental opportunities for transmission. And the SPP has a process that they go through. So when it relates to rebuilding our lines, we obviously will drive that. And if there are lines where there's potential competitive opportunity that we need to participate in the process, which in our current set, we would do in our -- through our partnership. Greenbelt is a project that, as you know, has been around for -- I think it's at least a decade or longer. And it's recently been taken on by Invenergy, which is a very capable organization and has got tremendous experience. It's a merchant project, so a different kind of investment. You'd have to make sure that it would work from a rates perspective overall and would work from a regulators perspective, so something that we would continue to evaluate. But obviously any project of that scale and scope and size, as different as it is, requires a lot of review. But it's -- Invenergy is very capable and it could well be part of the mix going forward. I think as we clarify federal policies and potential carbon regulation, that will help to inform what the path forward is going to be for transmission overall. And so, we look forward to continuing to evaluate opportunities in that space.
Shar Pourreza:
Got it. In the early September Analyst Day is that the right podium to maybe provide additional visibility?
David Campbell:
Yes. Potentially. And we haven't set a specific time line. I don't think we're going to have the Analyst Day on Labor Day, but we haven't set the date to September. Mid to late in the month, but we'll see.
Shar Pourreza:
Got it, got it. And then, David, any sort of color you can share on how Bluescape's involvement is driving any change? And any line of sight to incremental impacts that you can maybe discuss from this relationship, i.e., maybe from the generation side and efficiently managing the assets versus prior to the relationship? So what's the incremental things you're seeing from that relationship, I guess?
David Campbell:
So we -- thank you, Shar, for the question. I think we've got a very capable Board with a balanced set of experiences. So we added Senator Mary Landrieu and John Wilder as part of the changes that were implemented in February. And both of them bring, I think, significant additional and complementary capabilities
Shar Pourreza:
Got it. And then, just lastly for me. Obviously, we're all watching the FERC ROE reforms really closely. Maybe just, if you could provide a FERC ROE sensitivity, if we do see those adders get cut.
David Campbell:
So you're talking about the 50 basis points that --
Shar Pourreza:
Correct.
David Campbell:
-- under contemplation? Yes. Shar, we estimate that the impact of that is in the range of $0.02 to $0.03 per share.
Shar Pourreza:
Got it.
David Campbell:
In the 2023-2024 time frame.
Shar Pourreza:
Great. That was it. Terrific. And congrats on the regulatory and legislative initiatives. It's terrific. Thanks very much.
David Campbell:
Thank you, Shar. Thank you.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Paul Patterson. Your line is open.
Paul Patterson:
Hey, good morning, guys. Good morning, Paul. So just some quick questions the -- just with Missouri and the securitization legislation. Is there any significant difference between these two competing -- well, I don't know about competing bills, but these two different bills, one in the House, one in the Senate that is of any significance or -- from our perspective?
David Campbell:
No. Paul, they're pretty close. I think it's just the typical process to go through to make sure all the words match, but there are not any material differences. So we're -- I think we're as well positioned as we could be. But in general, the provisions are very similar. And we expect that -- we're optimistic. Obviously, we've got to work through the process, but we're optimistic. And either way, we'll know within the next week, but we think we're well positioned.
Paul Patterson:
Okay, great. And then, with respect to the -- you guys called out the -- in Kansas, the utilities discretion of reinvesting securitization proceeds. And I sort of think of funds being fungible. So I'm just sort of wondering how should we think about that? I mean is there some prudency predetermination, or I guess, why are you guys calling that out, I guess? I'm not completely clear as to what the concern was or just if you could elaborate a little bit more on that benefit.
David Campbell:
So, Paul, I think that's a good question, a good point. I think we were -- it's really more to say that there aren't restrictions as opposed to saying that, that will dictate how the funds are used. Just know that it's not always the case of securitization that there's discretionary of funds. But to your point broadly, all I was saying is that it's -- there are not restrictions that we do plan to use those proceeds, as you note in the general purpose. We do have the opportunity for predetermination on plants that we're seeking to retire, just as we do predetermination for new investments. We like that approach, because that is a separate matter that allows us to get a read on things before taking action. But to your note, there's nothing special about the flexibility, other than its allowed for us.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. And then just, in terms of the size of the -- the potential size of securitization that we're thinking about, I guess, during the sort of -- maybe during the STP process or whatever, you mean, in the next few years or something, how should we think about what the potential -- do you guys have -- or maybe I don't know if you -- maybe you guys are -- haven't come up with one that you want to share. But do we have any idea that you could share with us about what the size of the securitization might be that can come out of this?
David Campbell:
Sure. So we'll -- and obviously, if we do a predetermination filing we have a very good sense for it in advance. But the planned retirement of the Lawrence plant in late 2023 is about $350 million, that would go through the -- we anticipate would go to the application for the securitization as part of that process. So it will be roughly that amount. As I noted in my remarks, through the retirement through the general transition of our rate-base given relative investment in T&D, we do expect that coal as a share rate base will get down to the low 20s, by 2024.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. So just to understand that $350 is sort of what we're thinking about, the Lawrence plant -- other than the Lawrence plant we're not thinking of anything else there being securitized, at least at this point?
David Campbell:
Not during the three-year implementation phase. As we know that we see, the retirements that are later in the 20s. And obviously, we'll continue to assess timing in the overall plan as market conditions evolve. But we would anticipate if securitization is an option in both, Missouri and Kansas that would be used for the future retirements in the IRP as well.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. Thanks for that. And then, in terms of the STP it looks like you guys got some sort of favorable remarks from staff. And what have you at least, talked about being a little bit of refinement or whatever suggestion. But what's not clear to me, I guess in the STP process is, is there an eventual sign-off from the commission on that? I mean, it's not a -- it's a little bit of a -- not a standard I guess, proceeding if you follow-up at least from my perspective. So you've -- when do you expect to have sort of this STP thing wrapped up, I guess in Kansas?
David Campbell:
So as you know, it's an innovative process and we appreciate the opportunity that the commissions have provided for us to go through the plan and get -- and receive feedback. But they are informational. There's not a formal sign-up that will result from the proceedings. In terms of the procedural calendar the next step for us in Kansas will be we're going to file responsive comments. I think, its next week. And then, we'll have a session on May 24. So it will be an interactive workshop and dialogue. And that's currently the next remaining step in the process, but it could -- obviously it could be adjusted. But it's informational. And we appreciate the comments. We think that the comments overall reflect that we have a balanced plan. And we've seen that reflected generally in the comments we saw in both, Missouri and Kansas. In Missouri, we expect to have a similar sort of wrap-up workshop in early June. Again, because they're informational dockets the timeline could evolve, but the current schedule has us wrapping in the late May or early June timeframe.
Paul Patterson:
Awesome, thanks so much guys.
David Campbell:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Sullivan. Your line is open.
Michael Sullivan:
Hey guys. Good morning.
David Campbell:
Good morning Mike.
Michael Sullivan:
Just a question on the IRP, curious to the extent you guys -- I mean, you got a pretty good example of a stress test situation back in February. And was the conclusion there basically, we could do without Lawrence, but we pretty much needed everything else in terms of dispatchable resources. And then, that kind of factored into the decision to keep the rest of the plants around a little longer?
David Campbell:
Mike, I think that it's fair to say that the review across STP is still an ongoing process right? The -- I think that we and the entire system have a lot to learn and the analysis is not yet done. As a technical matter, we have a, accredited capacity requirement that we need to meet. And we can -- with the retirement of Lawrence we are within our buffer. So you're right in looking at it that way. And the more we retire, the more we're going to have to look at replacement capacity. But I think it's also fair to say, that the event reinforced that a lot of the rules and approaches are geared towards summer peaks and not necessarily towards winter peaks. So the IRP exercise is much a balanced one of thinking about okay, if we are factoring in reliability along with affordability and sustainability, a measured approach to retirements is it makes the most sense, because your additions of renewables particularly wind. But also solar which is -- is less effective in dealing with winter peaks you need to factor that in as you're considering, how you're going to be ensuring the reliability part of the equation. So it did -- the winter weather event at least factored into the dialogue overall. But I think it's fair to say that it's going to be an ongoing evaluation and not just in our area. We'll be able to learn across our system and other systems as well. But I think it is certainly fair to say that, as we consider the event we do believe, the energy production from coal will continue to decline. And in that way you will see ongoing benefits for customers' lower O&M and fuel costs. But there will be a reliability benefit of keeping them in the system until you've certainly got sufficient replacements to ensure reliability. So, some of that thing is reflected in the plan. But of course, we'll -- the IRP is most certain for the three-year implementation period. And as market conditions and technology evolves, there's no doubt that we'll continue to look at it. But we think this plan reflects the right balance for now.
Michael Sullivan:
Okay. Yeah. I was kind of -- you kind of answered it, but my other question was just going to be how soon could this be -- like, can anything change as soon as the Analyst Day potentially, or I would think that definitely before the next triennial IRP, or just how do you think about the cadence of providing further updates on...
David Campbell:
Yeah. The -- on the IRP calendar, there's a -- so file Kansas effectively sooner than July one deadline but there's still a Kansas filing of course. Then you give an annual update before the triennial filings. So will the next IRP get it updates will be in a year's time. Then there'll be a formal triennial update in three years. But gosh I think for everybody if you look back last year or two years ago or three years ago there's, been a lot of changes to the IRPs, because it's a pretty dynamic environment. So, hard to predict the future, I think you're right about the Analyst Day. I don't expect fundamental changes to the IRP per se. But in the next year two years, three years, I'd be surprised, frankly there are changes for everyone just, because the landscape continues to change, as you know well.
Michael Sullivan:
Got it. Thanks so much. I appreciate it.
David Campbell:
Yeah. Thanks, Michael.
Operator:
Excuse me, presenters. There are no more phone questions. Mr. David Campbell, turning it back to you.
David Campbell:
Great. Well, thanks everyone for your interest in Evergy. Stay safe. And have a great day. Thank you.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Fourth Quarter 2020 Evergy, Inc. Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. I would now like to hand the call over to Lori Wright. Please go ahead.
Lori Wright:
Thank you, Michelle. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Evergy's fourth quarter call. Thank you for joining us this morning. Today's discussion will include forward-looking information. Slide 2 and the disclosure in our SEC filings contain a list of some of the factors that could cause future results to differ materially from our expectations and include additional information on non-GAAP financial measures. The release was issued this morning, along with today's webcast slides and supplemental financial information for the quarter, are available on the main page of our website at investors.evergy.com. On the call today, we have David Campbell, Evergy's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Kirk Andrews, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Other members of management are with us and will be available during the question-and-answer portion of the call. I will now turn the call over to David.
David Campbell:
Thanks, Lori, and good morning, everyone. It is my pleasure to join you on my first earnings call as Evergy's CEO. This is an exciting time for our company. We delivered strong financial performance in 2020 and have a tremendous opportunity to maintain our momentum and the company's Sustainability Transformation Plan, or STP. Before I jump into our results, let me touch on some observations in my new role. As you know, I joined on January 4, just under 2 months ago. Acclimating to a new company is quite different in this COVID environment. Even though I am not able to meet as many people in person as I would like, I've still enjoyed engaging with the teams remotely to get up to speed and have enjoyed hosting various introductory meetings with important stakeholders, including our regulators in Kansas and Missouri, and many of you listening in today. I look forward to building deeper relationships as we move forward. When I first began discussions with the Board about joining the company, I spent time examining the STP and the objectives it aims to achieve. I was attracted by these many value-creating opportunities and a strong fit with my skills and industry experience. As CEO, I've been able to gain more visibility into the plan, and I believe these value opportunities for both our customers and our shareholders are just beginning to be appreciated by the street. Ultimately, my role is to optimize the plan and accelerate the pace of execution as possible and appropriate. As we advance down the path, I'm confident that Evergy can become one of the best, highest-performing all-electric utilities. An important part of our journey will be our fleet transformation opportunities. Customers and communities want reliable, affordable and sustainable energy. Our geographic footprint is ideally suited for wind and well positioned for solar, which allow for a path to transform relatively high-cost fossil fuel into modern, low-cost renewables, all while ensuring reliability. We view this position as a competitive advantage, one that provides a true win-win-win as we think about shareholders, customers and the environment. Our current plan, which is comprised mainly of straightforward, highly executable efficiency improvements and utility investment lays the foundation by preparing the grid and enabling this compelling fleet transformation thesis over the next decade and beyond. I've had the opportunity to make my first hire. Kirk Andrews joined us on Monday of this week as our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. You'll hear from Kirk for the first time in a bit. His track record of leadership and execution as the CFO, his relationships and credibility with the capital markets and his wealth of knowledge and experience will be a tremendous value for our team. Kirk has been on the Evergy Board for the past year and played an integral part in the formation of our STP. I'm thrilled to have him as a member of the executive team. Today, we're also announcing further support for our company as a result of agreements with Bluescape Energy Partners and Elliott Management. John Wilder, who has an outstanding reputation for impact and driving value, will join our Board as the Chair of the Finance Committee. In addition, Senator Mary Landrieu, former 3-term U.S. senator for Louisiana and Chair of the Senate Energy Committee, will join our Board and bring a distinctive knowledge and experience in energy and national policy issues. Both will help us to execute the STP and enhance our ability to drive industry-leading performance across our business. Bluescape and Elliott have also committed to standstill another customary provision. I'll circle back to those agreements later - those agreements that we've signed today and to our new Board members at the conclusion of my remarks. Turning now to Slide 5. This morning, we reported full year GAAP earnings of $2.72 per share compared to $2.79 per share earned in 2019. Adjusted earnings per share were $3.10 in 2020, compared to $2.89 per share in the prior year. The ability to overcome the unprecedented challenges of 2020 and deliver at the top end of our adjusted EPS guidance range of $2.95 to $3.10 per share is a testament to the disciplined execution of our team. Overall, 2020 was a strong year. We achieved 7% year-over-year adjusted EPS growth. We adjust - we reduced adjusted O&M by over $120 million or 10% in 2020 compared to 2019. So for the 2 full calendar years since creating Evergy, we have reduced adjusted O&M over $250 million, nearly 20%, delivering the cost-reduction opportunity that our team envisioned and well ahead of our merger commitments. Consistent with our guidance, we raised our dividend 6% to an indicated annual rate of $2.14 per share. We invested more than $1.5 billion to enhance reliability, customer service, create jobs and invest in our communities. We implemented pandemic response plans, resulting over 2,000 employees working from home while those in critical operations functions changed their way of doing business and added extra preventative measures to ensure the continued delivery of safe and reliable power. We waived customer late fees and added payment options to help customers relieve some of the strain caused by the pandemic. We launched our Hometown Economic Recovery Program, which donated over $2 million from our foundation to help local nonprofits, customers and communities, respond to and recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. Turn to Slide 6. As you all know, we recently experienced an extreme sustained cold weather event, the worst our region has seen in decades. As a result, our regional transmission organization, the Southwest Power Pool, had to take the unprecedented step of instituting a Level 3 emergency - energy emergency alert. This required SPP participants to execute emergency load shedding power interruptions, which impacted some of our customers. Fortunately, most of these customers weren't without power for more than a few hours at the longest. We greatly appreciate our customers' patience as we work through these horrendous conditions to coordinate these interruptions in order to prevent a larger or widespread event. As you can see in the pictures on the slides, our employees experienced those conditions firsthand and worked tirelessly to keep the plants and the grid up and running. I can't thank my colleagues enough for their dedication and commitment in braving the elements to keep the lights on for our customers. With respect to the financial impacts of the extreme weather event from roughly February 13 to February 19, that evaluation is still ongoing. Overall, we were pleased with the performance of our generation fleet. Natural gas availability, in particular, was a challenge, and prices reached historic highs. Purchased power costs are expected to be higher as well based on initial settlement information from SPP received this week. In aggregate, across our jurisdictions, we estimate that our cost to procure natural gas and purchase power through the event were approximately $300 million. The purchased power portion of this number is expected to rise as it does not yet include Friday, February 19. More broadly, the purchase power costs will also be subject to ongoing review as part of the settlement process by SPP over the next 30 to 45 days. As a general matter, we expect to be able to recover the excess costs associated with the event. The recovery is likely to occur over time to smoothen the impact to customers. Kansas has already passed an order authorizing the creation of a regulatory asset for incremental costs that we and other utilities incurred during the extreme weather event. With respect to unregulated activities, we have a small power marketing business that historically has earned between $15 million and $30 million annually or less than 1% of our gross margin in a given year. After costs, this typically equates from approximately $0.03 to up to $0.07 of earnings per share. Activities typically include energy management services, optimizing transmission positions and small trading positions in a book with a closely monitored and limited bar. The expertise and knowledge developed by the group adds value to our asset management activities in SPP. During the extreme weather event, purchases of firm transmission and a long position in ERCOT were the primary drivers of what is expected to be unusually high gross margin from this group. Given that settlements are still underway, financial analysis is ongoing. Overall, the potential impacts are expected to be positive and generate significantly higher results potentially in the range of 3x higher relative to the high end of what we earn from power marketing in a typical year. We'll report on this matter as part of our Q1 call. Slide 7 highlights key elements of our investment thesis. This morning, we initiated our 2021 earnings guidance with GAAP EPS of $3.14 to $3.34 per share and our adjusted EPS guidance at $3.20 per share to $3.40 per share. This range does not include the expected positive impacts from power marketing activities during the week of extreme weather. The $3.30 midpoint for our adjusted guidance implies a 7% compound annual growth rate from our 2019 adjusted EPS of $2.89. This is in line with the long-term EPS growth target of 6% to 8% from 2019 through 2024 that we reaffirmed this morning, reflecting the consistent progress that we've made in the initial implementation phase of the STP. Our EPS growth target plus current dividend yield of approximately 4% results in a compelling total shareholder return profile of 10% to 12%, competitive with other top-performing utilities. For the STP to be successful, we need to deliver benefits for all of our key stakeholders. The plan was formulated with precisely that objective in mind, as summarized on Slide 8. Our cost-reduction efforts to date have meaningfully benefited customers. Evergy's electric rates across Kansas and Missouri have declined since 2018, while most of our neighboring states have experienced increases over the same time period. The plan adds to this momentum through targeted capital investments that enable long-term and sustainable cost reductions as well as substantial fuel and purchased power savings. These lower operating costs will be reflected in our upcoming rate cases. The infrastructure investment will also enhance customer experience through better customer tools and systems while improving reliability by focusing on grid automation, digital communication and data analytics capabilities that we don't have today. It will also contribute to local economic development efforts by creating jobs to implement grid and renewable generation projects. More broadly, a stronger, smarter grid and greener energy will help the overall competitiveness of our region. Slide 9 lays out the capital expenditure plan from 2020 through 2025, including adjustments made as part of this year's planning process. The total amount of projected spend from 2021 to 2024 is unchanged. And though there have been some relatively minor phasing and other changes, for example, the total renewable spend remains at roughly $700 million, that we are phasing the spend to match up with the publication of the IRPs and our renewable strategy work this year. In aggregate, these changes have no impact on our view of the company's 2024 earnings power. Lastly, we added our estimates for 2025 in a range of $1.85 billion to $2.1 billion, reflecting the robust pipeline of projects that we see for the balance of the decade through 2030. We plan to discuss 2025 in greater depth as part of our Investor Day later this year. Slide 10 profiles what is an increasing area of focus for our company, advancing a continuous improvement culture and achieving high performance for key metrics across our business. As mentioned earlier, we significantly reduced our nonfuel operating and maintenance expenses from 2018 to 2020, and we're targeting another 8% reduction by 2024, resulting in an overall reduction of 25% relative to the 2018 baseline. Our reliability performance, as measured by SAIDI and SAIFI, also improved in 2020 in each case by around 5%. I'm pleased to report that our safety performance in 2020 was some of the best in our company's history, for example, achieving a 50% improvement in the OSHA incident rate relative to 2019. These results are a testament to the continued dedication and commitment of our employees, even in the face of the harsh pandemic conditions. We're proud of this strong performance, but we know that we have ongoing room to improve. We'll stay laser-focused on safety, execution and the fundamentals of business performance. Slide 11 lays out the significant progress we've made on our carbon-reduction efforts. We've achieved a 51% reduction from 2005 levels, which is far ahead of many of our peer utilities. That statistic is often overlooked, as is the fact that approximately 55% of the energy that we deliver to our customers is carbon-free, which also compares favorably to peers. The SM [ph] includes steps to enable the ongoing transition of our generation fleet and progress towards our long-term CO2 emissions reduction target. We expect to have attractive investment opportunities in new renewables generation that diversifies our portfolio and does so cost effectively, taking advantage of the ongoing efficiency gains in the cost of building new solar, wind and storage projects. Along with investment in economic new renewables, we will also pursue constructive legislation that could facilitate our longer-term fleet transformation. To that end, we've heard some questions around the role of legislation plays in our plan. The securitization bills that we introduce in Kansas and Missouri this year are not necessary to achieve the plan nor are they critical to pass this year. Our 5-year financial forecast does not hinge on the passage of securitization. While the numbers that we present assume the retirement of coal plants by 2024, that actually contributes to a reduction in rate base of roughly $350 million. Stepping back, securitization is a potential tool that can provide value for customers and the company over time, but it's much more meaningful for our longer-term fleet transformation prospects, which are more likely in the second half of this decade and beyond. That said, it can take time for legislative solutions to be passed, so now is the time to move the conversation forward. In parallel, our current integrated resource plans, or IRPs, are well underway with current filing dates of April 1 in Missouri and by July 1 in Kansas. We are likely to seek a short deferral in Missouri in light of the extreme weather event of this month. We've executed the stakeholder engagement process of our IRPs in both states and appreciate the input received from all of our constituents. While the IRP reflects a 20-year plan, really a set of potential 20-year scenarios, we expect it will provide a helpful road map for our future fleet transition, advancing the goals of reliability, affordability and sustainability. Later this year, we also expect to update our interim and long-term carbon-reduction targets, either in conjunction with the IRP filings or as part of our Investor Day. We're going to stay current with the dynamics in Washington and how they might impact our generation transition plans. The extension of the renewable tax credits in December, enhancing the competitiveness of wind relative to when we did our initial work on STP is a good example. These elements will be important as we advance forward with the renewables development strategy in STP. We believe that we will be able to frame a compelling proposition for participating directly in the build-out and ownership of renewables. Kirk's responsibilities include the leadership of our renewables development efforts, and he will play a central role in ensuring that we are well positioned to do this competitively as well Chief Operating Officer, Kevin Bryant, and the broader team. Before I turn it over to Kirk, I'll cover Slide 12 and discuss the agreements we announced this morning with Bluescape and Elliott. As I mentioned, when I joined Evergy in January, I did so with a firm belief that the STP is the right path forward for our company and our stakeholders. Considerable analysis went into developing this plan, and meaningful progress is being made on it. We have a strong team across the organization to help ensure we capture the many benefits this plan creates. The addition of John Wilder and Senator Mary Landrieu to the Board brings valuable experience to help the Board to oversee the STP and enhance our ability to achieve top quartile and industry-leading performance across the company. John is a proven leader. His track record speaks for itself, while Mary brings a wealth of public policy knowledge in areas of critical importance for our company. I look forward to working with the Board to implement the plan and ensure that we deliver on its objectives. As you've seen, Bluescape will also be investing approximately $115 million in Evergy, and we'll have the option to purchase additional shares over the next 3 years. This investment represents a clear vote of confidence in Evergy, our team and the value we can achieve through the STP. In closing, our plan is focused on driving value and benefits for all of our stakeholders. The 2020 results and 2021 guidance that we announced today shows strong initial momentum, and we are reaffirming the 6% to 8% annual growth trajectory through 2024. Over the longer term, we see equally promising opportunities to invest in infrastructure and transform our generation fleet, harnessing the renewables potential in our region. Our all-electric utility franchise will also benefit from the tailwinds of electrification across the economy. We look forward to spending more time with you on our investment thesis and strategy at our Investor Day in the third quarter. 2020 was an unprecedented year with unprecedented challenges, and our team kept their eye on the ball to deliver strong results. We look forward to building on that track record through relentless execution of the STP in the years ahead. I will now turn the call over to Kirk.
Kirkland Andrews:
Thanks, David, and good morning, everyone. Having just begun my new role here as Evergy's CFO a few days ago, I'm pleased to have the opportunity to speak with all of you so soon into my tenure. Having served on the company's Board as well as on the committee which oversaw the creation of our Sustainability Transformation Plan, I was already well aware of the compelling value-creating opportunity the STP represents for Evergy and its stakeholders. As I've known and respected David for many years, I was even more compelled by the company's potential under his leadership. So when he and I began our conversations about my potentially coming in as CFO, the opportunity represented an extremely compelling and natural next step for me. I'm very excited to be a part of Evergy's bright future in my new role, and I'm really looking forward to being part of the outstanding team here that will help our company realize its great potential. On that note, I'm very pleased to share more details about our strong outlook for 2021. But before I do, let me begin the financial review on Slide 14 with a review of the fourth quarter results. This morning, we reported fourth quarter 2020 GAAP earnings of $0.22 per share compared to $0.28 per share in the fourth quarter of 2019. Adjusted non-GAAP earnings were $0.28 per share compared to $0.32 per share in the same period a year ago. As shown in the chart, EPS was driven lower due to reduced gross margin as a result of 2 factors
David Campbell:
We'll now welcome questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.
Shahriar Pourreza:
So just a couple of questions here. First, just on the Board appointments and Bluescape, Elliott agreement. I know John mentioned in the press release, just to quote, "refine and implement the STP for the benefit of all Evergy stakeholders." Can you just elaborate on what was meant by refine? Does that - David, kind of relate to your prepared remarks around potentially accelerating the pace of execution, where appropriate?
David Campbell:
So Shar, I'm glad you asked the question. The STP is our plan. We think the Board appointments today will really just help us to execute that plan and implement the program. I think, with any 5-year plan, you're always looking for opportunities to enhance and drive performance. But if the STP is our plan, they're really joining to help us execute the plan. Kirk, K.B. and I - Kevin, Brian and I and the whole team will be looking for ways to shape and implement that plan over time. And we've had discussions in some of our meetings on - are there going to be opportunities for further cost savings or driving that over time. I think the company has done a tremendous job as shown in 2020 before our arrival of being on a great trajectory of cost reductions. I'm sure we'll continue to focus on that, but we'd just emphasize that the Board appointments are to help us to implement and execute the STP, which is our plan. And we're very excited about that plan.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Got it. And then just the exercise option for additional share purchases by Bluescape over the next 3 years, is there any constraints or limits on how much can be purchased over that time frame at sort of that agreed upon price, which I guess is 20% higher than the current valuation levels?
David Campbell:
Yes. The total size of the warrant grant is just under $4 million, so it could be up to that amount. They're not transferable for exercise, and it's just under $65 a share, a 3-year term. And so that's the overall setup for it.
Kirkland Andrews:
Yes. And the mechanism - Shar, it's Kurt - allows to net settle that on the basis of the intrinsic value implied by the option at that time. So it's not - from a dilution stand, because I know you always focus on that, it's not the full $3.95 million. So we've got that mechanism in our disposal.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Okay. Perfect. That's what I was trying to get at. And then just lastly for me, David, is the current sort of these winter storm fallouts change the conversations around securitization in Missouri? And do you think it's going to sort of impact your ability to get legislation done this year? I mean, it seems like some of the legislators were focused on it in hearings last week, but it also sounds like, from your prepared remarks, you may be backing away from prior language of needing the securitization by '22 to keep the plant on pace.
David Campbell:
No. I think we think securitization is an important tool. We think that this extreme weather event is something they're all going to - the whole industry is going to need to step back and think about what it means. But we still think this is an important tool. It may reflect that for some of our units. Is a seasonal operation option or a more limited option going to be important, especially as we think about winter peaks and the winter season? We even think about how might that even fold into some of our legislative efforts over time. So I actually think that this event, if anything, helps to spur interest in the overall topic. So we found good engagement on securitization and the different pros and cons of it as part of the greater awareness of the whole issue as a result of the event. So I don't mean to imply at all that we're backing away from securitization efforts. We think it's an important legislative effort. We're just trying to highlight that, as with - we don't develop a plan that's dependent on new legislation. It's a tool that can help. And we actually think the dialogue is even more constructive as a result of the difficult events that we've seen this month.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Got it. And then David, congratulations on these appointments. And I'm sure you guys aren't going to miss answering any more [CDR] [ph] questions in Texas. So congrats, guys.
David Campbell:
Thanks, Shar.
Kirkland Andrews:
Thanks, Shar.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America.
Dariusz Lozny:
It's Dariusz Lozny on for Julien here. Just wanted to ask about your 6% to 8% long-term EPS guidance target. I see you guys are delivering on that in 2021. I was just wondering, now that you've given a look in terms of your 2025 CapEx, how should we think about that 6% to 8% going forward, perhaps moving beyond the 2024 time frame?
David Campbell:
So we affirm the growth rate range target for 2019 to 2024. So we - and there are some questions that I first started around the management team coming in and trying to reset or rebase the plan. No. The management team is here to help execute the plan. And we benefit in first case that he was around on the Board to help develop the plan, too. So we do - we are reaffirming the 6% to 8% through 2024. We introduced 2025 CapEx, but we're not yet speaking to the longer-term range. We're planning to cover that at the Investor Day. We expect to do that in the third quarter following our IRP filing. So expect to hear more about 2025 and going out another year at that time. But right now, we just want to make sure that everyone hears it clearly from us that we're reaffirming that 6% to 8% target through '24, and we look forward to having an in-depth conversation with everyone at our Investor Day in the third quarter.
Dariusz Lozny:
Okay. Great. One more, if I can, and this is on Slide 9 of your presentation. And apologies if I missed this, but your 2025 CapEx, it looks like there's some latitude to go beyond the $1.85 billion to $2.1 billion. Can you just confirm what that delta represents, please?
David Campbell:
Sure. And so 5 years out, and we've talked about this, I think, in some of our discussions last quarter. We have a very robust pipeline of projects through the balance of the decade. And that's really to signify that, as we get closer to '25, if it makes sense, of course, we'll firm up that number over time. We've got a strong backlog, so we could see that number being higher. But of course, we'll look at that in the overall balance of considerations. But we could certainly see that CapEx number trending towards the high end or the midpoint of that range. And it just reflects we've got that strong pipeline. And it's also shown - this is something again that we'll be going through in our Investor Day. But what I've been pleased to see is that we've got a great set of projects ahead of us in the next 4 years. But then the balance of the decade, we've got a very robust pipeline as well.
Dariusz Lozny:
Okay. Great. That's all for me.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs.
Michael Lapides:
Congratulations to both of you. Welcome to the new role in an exciting time. I have a little bit of a policy question, public policy question. And David, I'm curious. I know you're in your first rounds of meeting all the key stakeholders in both states. But just curious, given what's happened in the events over the last 2 weeks. Do you think there will be incremental concern about shifting even more and more away from solid fuel-type generation sources to more intermittent sources, for reliability purposes, I know environmental purposes and, clearly, costs are key - and clearly, coal is on the wrong side of the ledger on both environmental and cost. But I just wonder if we're in for somewhat of a paradigm shift. Does it mean fewer coal retirements? Does it mean more batteries, a bigger mix of gas? How do you think from a policy perspective folks in Kansas and Missouri are going to look at what's happened both there, but also south of them and think about kind of what the system should look like long term for reliability?
David Campbell:
So Michael, that's a great question. Obviously, I'm new to Kansas and Missouri, so I look forward to engaging that dialogue with our key stakeholders here. I think we're all going to learn from the event and, in particular, what the overall planning for reliability needs to look like for winter because the renewables profile matches up extremely well with summer peaks. High correlation with solar generally with the on-peak times, good ability to charge batteries. Wind tends to run at night or other times. The winter can be more of a challenge as we think about it. So as I think about that question, and it's going to be a dialogue again with our stakeholders, I know for me I thought about, well, a big chunk of what you described is, can we replace energy production from fossil and from coal, which is higher cost and higher emissions, and replace a fair bit of that energy with ongoing renewables? But are we going to maybe need to think about seasonal operations or other factors, especially in peak months, where you're still reducing the energy production from fossil and from coal pretty significantly, so you're still getting a displacement, but you're not losing the reliability benefit? Now those plants were not designed to be peakers, so they're not peakers. But at the same time, all coal units across the country have significantly increased their flexibility. I think, certainly, seen that in my past experience. And having those kind of units available for peak months, winter and summer, may be a more prominent part of the mix. So you may see - again, this is - we're all going to have to have this dialogue and evaluate over time. We shouldn't react in a long-term business like ours to 1 week. But I think we may well see where there's maybe less emphasis on retirement and more emphasis on variabilizing cost and keeping existing units that provide very critical support at critical times in the system. So that's where I think the discussion might go. But what's going to be important for us is that we participate in that dialogue, we listen. And I look forward to engaging with our key stakeholders in Kansas and Missouri on that. Because I think we all saw that, when you have sustained outages in the winter, and we're very lucky that our outage is while unprecedented were relatively brief. It's not much harder than the summer when you have those outages because it's so cold. That's very detrimental to health. And it's that much harder to restart things when they're off-line when it's that cold. So much to learn.
Michael Lapides:
I have one follow-on on that. When you look around at the coal fleet, meaning your coal fleet, and you look at facilities where given access to gas or existing or potential, are there coal units that instead of retiring you might consider just converting into a higher heat rate peaker? We've seen a bunch of that in other parts of the country. I just didn't know if that was a low-cost alternative that also might provide emissions benefits.
David Campbell:
That's an insightful question, Mike. We have looked at that, and we'll continue to. There are a couple of facilities where that could be an option, and then there are probably the balance majority where the pipeline infrastructure is simply not there, so it requires a fair bit more than just converting, but I think that will need to be part of the discussion. Now as we all know, with the wind and weather event, what happened is having that inventory in a fuel pile, a coal pile was pretty helpful and gas can be pretty hard to come by, so the - that I think is going to need conversion to a more of a gas peaking kind of unit where possible. I think it should be part of the mix. But I think we'll also want to think about - because it is generally the case, and the winter peaks, in particular, the gas availability can become challenged or more expensive. But we have looked at that. That's an option in a couple of spots. But for many of our places, you need more extensive infrastructure build-out. It might preclude it being possible.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates.
Paul Patterson:
On the power marketing, I know you guys aren't putting it as part of your guidance, but it sounds like it was a positive. And I was wondering if you could maybe give a flavor as to what you're seeing there and why you're excluding it?
David Campbell:
Sure. So as I mentioned, that's a real small part of our business. It's been in the business for a long time as part of the legacy Westar company. And we found it would be helpful to have because the regulated utility we still operate in a market. So having a group with commercial functions and insight in the market does help and add value to our asset management activities that are part of our core business, but it's historically been pretty small. And it generally takes long positions and transmission positions and relatively limited trading positions. What was unusual about this event is that they had - they still only have a relatively small number of positions and transition based, but they were long in ERCOT. So with prices being so high for so long in ERCOT is why even a quite small business with only a couple few small positions generated margins in excess of what's typical. The reason why we've excluded the - kind of the excess performance during the week is that we don't expect it to recur at that size. This is going to continue, we think, to be a very small part of our business. So we're not going to - it'll be reflected technically in our adjusted EPS, but we're going to describe what it is, make it very clear. And our guidance of $3.30 that we put out was - did not include the expected positive impacts from the week's event. So it's a positive, but it's not something that this business we expect will continue to be quite modest size. So it's - it did happen, and it's a reflection of the sustained event that occurred in Texas.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. And I don't think if it is a big driver, but it's historically - but just so curious as to - and I apologize. I got just a little bit late. How big it might have been if you guys...
David Campbell:
Well, typically, the business is - so typically, the business is about $15 million to $30 million of gross margin annually. So after costs, it's been anywhere from approximately $0.03 to up to $0.07 a share, so small.
Paul Patterson:
And this quarter, what was it? I mean, it's not this quarter, but for 2020 for the...
David Campbell:
Yes. So we haven't quantified it yet because the settlement process is still ongoing. What we estimate is that the results could be up to 3x higher than the high end of what we might earn in a typical year.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. Awesome. Okay. Well, that's good news. And everything else was answered.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Charles Fishman with Morningstar.
Charles Fishman:
I'm specifically looking at Slide 21, transmission investment over the next 5 years, '21 to '25 [indiscernible] It's going a little over $3 billion. And then I'm going back on - in the investor slide back in January. The previous 5-year, '20 to '24, was $1.9 billion. Am I comparing apples to apples? In other words, on '21, is that all FERC jurisdiction transmission investment that's we're building?
David Campbell:
No. It's not all FERC jurisdictional. That's our total transmission. I think you might be doing apples and oranges.
Charles Fishman:
Okay. That's what I thought because it's really jumping, $1.9 billion to $3 billion, and I thought - I mean, I know that's been strong, but that looks like a little too much.
David Campbell:
Yes. And we've added '25. But obviously, that - the difference between '20 and '25 million is not accounting for the difference in year 2. So well, maybe - if you've got us to the slide that you're comparing to, with a bunch of follow-ups with our team, and we can cover that because I'm not sure which slide, you're looking at, but we can definitely work that with you off-line because the plan has had some phasing shifts and some recategorization. But in general, '20 to '24, there weren't major changes, some phasing on renewables in particular, and then we just added '25. But we have to go through that with you off-line.
Charles Fishman:
Look, the fact that rate base and look at the right side of Slide 21, for rate base going from 12% to 17%. Still, that's a big focus of your investment over the next 5 years.
David Campbell:
Yes. And that is - that was the case. That has been the case in the STP and will continue.
Charles Fishman:
Okay. Great. And on that - let me just - that transmission. Is there a specific project you're depending on? Or is it just a lot of little stuff? And certainly, I would think the events over the last couple of weeks are going to make that - the hurdle of getting - any that requires approval a little bit easier.
David Campbell:
So our plan is not dependent on any single or even several large projects. It's the sum total of a lot of different projects, which I think is good in terms of diversification. I do think that the importance of transmission was clarified and magnified by the events of last week because you can have localized issues. You can have plants go down. You can have wind not blowing in some places and maybe blowing in others. The resilience of the transmission system and the importance of the transmission system, I think, was absolutely reflected in the events of this past month. But we're not - our plan is not dependent on any big, large projects that are a significant percentage of the overall total.
Charles Fishman:
Okay. You're certainly making the STP look more compelling, and it's good presentation.
Operator:
There are no further questions. I'd like to turn the call back over to David Campbell for any closing remarks.
David Campbell:
So again, my first call as CEO, I'm very excited to be part of the team here, very strong team. I want to complement their efforts during the extreme weather and their efforts to serve our customers and keep the lights on. And thank you all for your interest in Evergy, and have a great day. Stay safe. Thank you.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude the conference. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.
Operator:
Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Q3 2020 Evergy, Inc. Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any additional noise until the question-and-answer session [Operator Instructions]. I'll now turn the call over to your host, the Vice President, Corporate Planning, Investor Relations and Treasurer, Lori Wright. Ma'am, you may begin.
Lori Wright:
Thank you, Jesse. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Evergy's third quarter call. Thank you for joining us this morning. Today's discussion will include forward-looking information. Slide 2 and the disclosure in our SEC filings contain a list of some the factors that could cause future results to differ materially from our expectations and include additional information on non-GAAP financial measures. The release is issued this morning, along with today's webcast slides and supplemental financial information for the quarter, are available on the main page of our website at investors.evergy.com. On the call today, we have Terry Bassham, Evergy's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Tony Somma, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Other members of management are with us and will be available during the question-and-answer portion of the call. I will now turn the call over to Terry.
Terry Bassham:
Thanks, Lori, and good morning, everybody. I'll begin my comments on Slide 5. So today, we reported third quarter GAAP earnings of $1.60 per share compared to $1.56 per share earned in the third quarter of 2019. Adjusted earnings per share were $1.73 in the third quarter of 2020 compared to a $1.57 in the same period a year ago. Third quarter results were driven by significant cost reductions, an increase in weather normalize demand and fewer shares outstanding, partially offset by unfavorable weather. Year-to-date, GAAP earnings per share were $2.49 and in line with $2.49 in the same period last year. Adjusted EPS were $2.82 this year compared to $2.55 a year ago. Throughout the year, we've managed cost to withstand a number of headwinds, including the impact of the global pandemic, unfavorable weather and less than planned COLI proceeds. Our solid execution has resulted in our ability to deliver a great quarter and gives us confidence in the outlook for the year. Reflecting our strong performance, we are narrowing our 2020 adjusted EPS guidance range to $2.95 to $3.10 by raising the low end. Additionally, dividends are an important part of our total return story. You can see from our press release, the Board increased the dividend 6%, which underscores their confidence and our execution of the sustainability transformation plan or what we refer to as STP. Again, this is a great quarter, and I commend our team for the outstanding execution in these tough times. In addition to the over 3,000 dedicated employees and our frontline operations, power plants and other areas, we continue to have over 2,000 employees working remotely and will continue to do so into 2021. I'm proud of the resiliency and adaptability our team has displayed in dealing with the challenges brought forth by this pandemic. Before I update you on our STP process, let me touch on the CEO search process. After announcing my retirement in August, our Board formed a CEO search committee to find the right leader to execute our STP. The Search committee is currently interviewing quality internal and external candidates and just know that the process is ongoing, and we still expect to have someone named by the end of the year. Now turning to Slide 6. As we have discussed before, the strategic review and operations committee and our entire Board evaluated our new higher performance STP against other strategic alternatives available. The results were unequivocally and unanimously clear that our high-performance STP was the most valuable plan. It enhances value through infrastructure investment, cost reductions, while balancing the interest of customers, shareholders and communities. Our STP is focused on three core objectives; maximizing long-term value for our shareholders; serving the best interest of our customers, employees and communities; and continuing to advance our progress as a forward-thinking, sustainable energy company. Consistent with these objectives, our team has already began execution on these priorities set out in the STP. Our operations planning team is a clear line of sight into our incremental 2021 grid modernization plans, which include new projects that will develop a more flexible grid to enhance customer reliability. Our increased focus on substation and grid communication upgrades will overhaul aged equipment with modern technology and controls that will benefit our customers and communities for years to come. We've also invested considerable time and effort into robust stakeholder engagement to ensure our constituents fully understand the STP. Some of this engagement has taken place within the structured IRP process. We've also been working with stakeholders outside of the IRP framework by developing a schedule for STP workshops to educate and gather feedback from our regulatory commissioners and our important stakeholders. Additionally, we have been identifying metrics that we plan to use to track our success executing the STP. There are relevant indicators around cost reductions, including both nonfuel and fuel as well as tracking infrastructure investments by category that we will periodically update you on throughout the year. We will use these potentially other metrics as we pursue highly strategic, value-focused approach to display a transparent track record of execution, accountability and results. Now looking at slide seven. Part of the vision within the STP is advocating for enabling energy policies that promote reliable and clean energy within our states. While the legislative sessions won't kick off until after the first of the year, that hasn't slowed us down from engaging with interested parties on potential legislation. Through this dialogue, our confidence has grown in the clear desire across a diverse stakeholder base to enact long-term energy policies that will move Kansas and Missouri forward. While there are many solutions to deal with, remaining net investment in fossil plants being considered for retirement, securitization is one that can be more economical for customers. As a result, securitization is a topic that has come up in both states, and will be discussed in the 2021 one sessions. Robust stakeholder engagement process around our upcoming IRPs is also well under way. While these discussions are not public, the feedback we've been receiving has been constructed. We'll continue to meet with the parties in these dockets over the coming months to discuss modeling scenarios and get feedback on preferred plans. We will file the Missouri IRP by April one of next year. And the Kansas IRP by July one of next year. I'll now move to the regulatory front, beginning with an update on the KCC docket related to concerns about our agreement with Elliott Management. The commission ordered this docket be closed, affirming that we had met all of our obligations in that docket, and any remaining issues be handled in the KCC's STP docket. Kansa's STP review docket parties met throughout October to discuss schedule proposals, and we expect the filing soon to propose a jointly developed procedural schedule to the commission. It's likely the docket will extend into the middle of next year to allow how for full stakeholder feedback. Turning to Missouri. In October, the MPSC staff requested commission and the commission granted, an extension for their STP report to January 29, 2021. This allows staff more time to study our plan and receive any updates or further develop details that could be meaningful to the report. As a reminder, we don't expect the commission to take specific action regarding STP in either of those dockets. Main purpose is to gather other information on and review our STP and ensure our continued resolve in meeting previous merger commitments while providing a forum and repository for stakeholder feedback. Lastly, let me touch on our COVID-19 accounting authority order request. In Kansas, the commission approved our request to track expenses and lost revenue associated with COVID 19. In Missouri, we reached a nonunanimous settlement with the MPSC staff and many other intervenors last month, which request the commission issue an order that authorizes us to track and defer incremental costs caused by the pandemic. Hearings on the matter are scheduled for mid-November, and we expect the commission order in January. We realize this has been a hard time for our customers and communities. Last month, we wrapped up our hometown economic recovery program, which awarded grants totaling $800,000 to non-profit agencies. The goal of this program is to help our communities build back their local economies by retaining and attracting new business, developing workforces and supporting small businesses. This was all part of our largest to date focused charity investment which we announced in May and committed $2.2 million from our foundation to help agencies, customers and communities respond to and recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. Let me wrap up on Slide 8 before handing it over to Tony. Our STP creates a compelling value proposition for shareholders and is predicated upon a proven track record of achieving cost reductions and executing on infrastructure investment, both of which provide tremendous value to customers while keeping rates affordable. Our capital plan is traditional, straightforward infrastructure investment strategy that is diverse across our service territories without large project risk. Combination of our competitive targeted 6% to 8% EPS CAGR through 2024, and an attractive dividend growth profile offers a compelling value proposition. The STP focuses on not only grid modernization, but also accelerating the transition of our generation portfolio. Resulting in greener, more reliable, affordable energy for our customers and line of sight to continued earnings mix growth and value creation for Evergy's shareholders. While we already provide carbon-free energy equivalent to around 50% of our retail energy demand, our remaining coal fleet provides a significant opportunity to further decarbonize and enhance our environmental profile. The policy enablers we're pushing -- pursuing would allow us to leverage the remaining plant value of our coal fleet to reduce capital cost and upon retirement, eliminate fuel and maintenance expense. This will allows us to add modern generation capacity with renewable investment over time. These circumstances, when paired with our prime geographic location, your attractive wind and solar potential make us uniquely positioned to execute a decarbonization strategy that would create significant cost savings for customers. We have an exciting opportunity in front of us. And that is a true win-win scenario to keep rates competitive while growing sustainable rate base that will be value-enhancing for our customers, communities and shareholders. Our execution has produced another strong quarter and great results year to date. We're very excited about the momentum of our plan and the long-term prospects to deliver significant value to customers and attractive returns for our shareholders. I'll now turn the call over to Tony.
Tony Somma:
Thanks, Terry, and good morning, everyone. I'll start with Slide 10. We reported third quarter 2020 GAAP earnings of $1.60 per share compared to $1.56 per share in the third quarter of 2019. Adjusted non-GAAP earnings increased $0.16 to $1.73 per share compared to $1.57 per share in the same period a year ago. As shown in the chart on slide 10, EPS was driven higher, primarily due to lower O&M expense and fewer shares outstanding, partially offset by lower gross margin, driven by unfavorable weather. For the $0.10 of other margin, we estimate about half of that is due to increase in weather-normalized demand with positive residential demand being partially offset by lower commercial and industrial demand. Additionally, there's another $0.02 from our energy efficiency programs. The $0.04 of other for the quarter is primarily due to the timing of when income tax benefits for tax credits and other tax items are recognized. Turning to weather, compared to last year normal, we estimate weather-reduced earnings by $0.17 and $0.08, respectively. Now on Slide 11, I'll touch on year-to-date results. Year-to-date GAAP earnings were $567 million or $2.49 per share compared to $606 million or $2.49 per share for the same period last year. Adjusted earnings were $642 million or $2.82 per share compared to year-to-date 2019 adjusted earnings of $621 million or $2.55 per share. Primary drivers compared to last year include our significant cost reduction efforts and fewer shares outstanding, partially offset by lower sales, primarily due to unfavorable weather, higher depreciation expense and an increase in interest expense. In the third quarter, we reduced our adjusted O&M by $41 million and year-to-date by $103 million. Some of the cost savings we experienced year-to-date relate to the prudent deferral of planned outages from early in the year to the fourth quarter as we monitor the impacts of the pandemic. Additionally, we sent some of our employees and contractors to help other utilities to deal with storms, which has resulted in being a little behind in our tree trimming and line maintenance versus our plan. We will do some catch-up work on these items in the fourth quarter. And as a result, while we plan to hit our 2020 O&M target spend levels. We also expect less favorability in O&M in the fourth quarter compared to last year. We continue to see the industrial logic of our merger coming to fruition and by the end of this year. We expect to surpass $300 million of cumulative net merger savings. Efficiencies are being realized across the business units through attrition, voluntary exit programs, leveraging the size and scale of our business and implementing technology solutions. Turning to weather, we estimate weather year-to-date through the third quarter has been $0.18 unfavorable compared to last year and around $0.08 unfavorable when compared to normal. On Slide 12, let me update you on trends we're seeing with COVID-19 sales impacts. As we stated in our second quarter call, commercial and industrial sales declined significantly during April when businesses were shut down and improved in May and June as the economy opened. At the time, we were expecting a slow and steady recovery through the remainder of the year. And fortunately, that's exactly what we've experienced throughout the summer. We're still seeing commercial and industrial sales, we're still seeing lower commercial industrial sales, but there was an encouraging trend throughout the quarter as we continue to experience elevated residential sales that modestly offset C&I degradation. It's hard to see how this trend will play out for the remainder of the year. With many schools implementing a hybrid approach and folks continue to work from home, absent a wide spread shutdown of businesses, we could continue to see residential sales help offset the lower C&I sales. Even though we've seen waves of the virus, our state and local economies have been fairly resilient thus far. For the third quarter, our estimated weather-normalized total retail sales were up about 1% compared to the same period last year. Residential sales were up roughly 7%, while commercial and industrial sales both declined about 3%. We remain optimistic to realize there are still many unknowns with the coronavirus, particularly whether there will be further impact during the overlap of the flu season. Wrapping up with an outlook for the remainder of this year and into next year. As you can see on Slide 13, we've updated some of our earnings drivers in addition to narrowing our EPS guidance range by raising the low end. Absent large setback of COVID-19, we're expecting to continue to see a slow and steady recovery through the end of the year. As I mentioned previously, we expect to incur some of the costs that were deferred from earlier this year and with that in mind, we expect cost savings to be less of a driver for the fourth quarter, and we've narrowed our annual adjusted O&M target to 8% to 10% lower than 2019. Our guidance includes $20 million of COLI proceeds. And it's worth pointing out that we had only received $4 million through the end of October. Our forecasted annual effective tax rate remains at 13% to 15%. I will note that our effective tax rate in the fourth quarter of 2019 was extremely low due to the amortization of excess deferred income taxes and a return to a rate closer to our 2020 guidance range is something to consider for this year. Moving to Slide 14 with 2021 considerations and preliminary drivers. After resurgence of COVID-19, we expect weather-normalized sales growth in 2021 compared to 2020. And we'll continue to monitor the lingering impacts of COVID-19 through the winter months and form more specific annual guidance for 2021. We have significantly reduced nonfuel O&M over the last two years, and we expect to maintain momentum as we begin implementing the STP-identified savings. Our original merger savings plans were outlined through 2022 as we layered on incremental savings opportunities through our STP work, we identified and extended these efforts through 2024. As part of the STP, our team has created charters to detail these savings opportunities, and we are viewing 2021 as a year to implement newly identified STP savings initiatives. We are confident in our ability to remain on plan for cost reductions in 2021 to reaffirm our long-term target of reducing nonfuel O&M by $210 million from 2019 through 2024. We expect capital deployment increases by around $150 million with all the year-over-year growth coming from transmission and distribution segment. We plan to spend over $400 million more in T&D, while our investment in the generation, general and other segments will be reduced by around $280 million. The identified additional FERC investment will be reflected in our 2021 formula rate update which we currently estimate will increase transmission revenue requirement by around $30 million. Obviously, as expected with a larger capital plan in 2021, we expect to see higher depreciation expense of around $30 million to $35 million, even when considering the favorable depreciation treatment for PISA qualified projects in Missouri. Now COLI programs are difficult to predict. We expect to include a place hold over 2021 that is in line with our current 2020 guidance. Lastly, we're forecasting an effective tax rate in 11% to 13% range. The effective tax rate will be driven from lower -- from the lower state income tax exemption for electric utilities in Kansas starting in 2021, which will be offset with lower retail revenues as the savings is passed through to customers. We remain confident in our target of long-term 6% to 8% EPS CAGR. And as we've mentioned previously, in the early years, including 2021, earnings are expected to be toward the bottom end of our range. We are very confident in our ability to deploy capital, finance that capital and stay on track with for the long-term cost reduction targets. The pandemic does create some lingering uncertainty with sales. So we continue to monitor trends and plan to issue formal EPS guidance and updated drivers on our year-end call in February. I'll now turn the call back to Terry.
Terry Bassham:
All right. Thank you, Tony. And with that, I'll turn it over to Jesse, and we're ready to take questions.
Operator:
Thank you. Participants we will begin the question-and-answer session [Operator Instructions] First question is from the line of Shar Pourreza. Your line is now open.
Shar Pourreza:
So just two quick questions here. Just on the timing of the IRP and sort of the STP dockets. Curious, like how do you sort of formulate these IRPs mid next year if the STP dockets are continuing into next year? So are you going to have enough feedback there to file these IRPS? So how do you sort of bridge the timing between the STP conclusions and the IRPs? I have to imagine what you find from the STP process will provide a guidepost for the IRPs. So just curious how do we bridge the timing gaps there?
Tony Somma:
Well, actually, I would kind of think about it the other way around. The STP is an overlay and will include the IRP findings. And so the IRP is a very specific process with intervenors who -- participating in depth, and those will help us to add to, if you will, the long-term future of our generation profile. The STP, as you know, is highly focused on the front end of the plan with T&D and other investment, which is very traditional and not as involved in the IRP process. Does that make sense?
Shar Pourreza:
It does.
Tony Somma:
The IRP is in general, a long-term generation planning process.
Shar Pourreza:
And sorry, Terry, what was the timing on the Missouri outcome for the process for the STP?
Tony Somma:
It's filed in April, April 1st of next year and Kansas in July.
Shar Pourreza:
And then just lastly, any updates on sort of the Elliott information sharing agreement? Has that lapsed? Where is that sort of an event?
Tony Somma:
The agreement terminated by its own terms earlier this week, and we're no longer under any agreements with Elliott since its termination.
Shar Pourreza:
Is there anything you can update us that came about from that agreement? Or, because you're still searching for the CEO, right? Whether it's internal or external. So what actually came out of that agreement?
Terry Bassham:
Well, obviously, the agreement as a whole was the basis for our entire process that it created the STP, the kind of the back-end extension, if you will, was for the opportunity to participate under the information sharing part of that during that time period. Again, the period is run, the agreement has run and there's nothing else in place.
Operator:
Next question is from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith. Your line is now open.
Dariusz Lozny:
It's Dariusz Lozny on for Julien here. Just wanted to ask briefly about O&M reductions. You guys, as you mentioned in your remarks, reduced the high end of the 2020 cuts from 11% to 10%. How should we think about that in the context of 2021? Obviously, you've got the longer range reduction based in there through 2024. But should we think of maybe the longer range target as more front-end loaded given that presumably there may be some savings from '20 that go into '21?
Tony Somma:
Well, good morning. This is Tony. We're still going through the, finish up our planning process for 2021, which is why we didn't really give specific driver on O&M just yet. I think what we've shown in 2020 in prior years, this sets the table quite well for 2021 and years beyond for our ability to push toward that number of $210 million lower nonfuel O&M starting from 2019. We did discuss a little bit, I think, about the overlap between what was traditionally or originally the merger savings and which now the STP provides us with additional O&M savings that we're just starting to chart and ramp up. So there's kind of an overlap of that process in '21 happen as well.
Dariusz Lozny:
And just one more, if I may. And shifting gears a little bit to the prospect of securitization, which you also mentioned in your remarks. Is there anything in either Kansas or Missouri that we should be looking out for as far as milestones in a lame duck session potentially in calendar '20? Or is that entirely a '21 item?
Terry Bassham:
Well, I would say, in terms of seeing or hearing things, it would be a '21 item. A lot of work is going on. A lot of conversations are going on. There'll be a lot of things that are happening between the interested parties, leading up to the beginning of the year, but they wouldn't be that visible. It will basically be a '21 item from, I think, what you're talking about perspective.
Operator:
Next question is from the line of Paul Patterson. Your line is now open.
Paul Patterson:
I'm managing. So first of all, on the STP, I know you guys are having discuss and stuff, what would you say are the biggest concerns or topics that are sort of, that are in front of center people's minds that you're encountering with respect to the STP?
Terry Bassham:
I think the top concern is always going to be the effect on rates, the effect on customers. So we believe the STP balances that, provides for the ability to use traditional investment to improve reliability and bring in technology without large increases to rates. But certainly, that will always be their focus is can we execute? And will it ultimately have an impact on cost, which we think we're able to show, has been considered upfront and tied in quite nicely.
Paul Patterson:
And then with respect to the cost, could you maybe remind me what the expected rate trajectory that you guys have with respect to just rates in general that you have in Kansas and Missouri. What is the, if I recall, it was kind of 2% or something. Am I correct?
Terry Bassham:
Yes, CAGR of about 2%. That's right.
Paul Patterson:
And then I guess the second one is sort of a procedural question or sort of a, there's sort of an unusual thing going on in Kansas with the STP and this effort to get Elliott as a required party by the industrial customers, I guess, some other people sort of agree with that. And I understand where you guys are completely coming from procedurally, I understand sort of the arguments I've read. And I could completely understand why you guys don't think that's a great idea, the presidential issue, et cetera. Where I'm a little bit confused though would be, because this is kind of new, at least I can't recall this sort of coming up before ever. What would be the practical, or would there be a practical impact or something? In other words, if this were, if the kick, I assume it hasn't been ruled on yet, at least, I haven't seen anything. I guess my question is, if, in fact, the kick proposal or motion was accepted, what would it practically mean on the ground? Would it just be sort of a procedural headache? Or would it be, or is there anything more that we should think about with respect to its potential ramifications?
Terry Bassham:
Yes. I would say if you first, yes, you've read our brief, you understand this is not appropriate. And don't believe it should be approved. Practically, if it were, and I couldn't tell you everything that might come from it. But practically, what I would tell you is it shouldn't have a large effect either. As you read our brief, you would understand that we came to an agreement with a shareholder around how to evaluate issues. But in the end, the fiduciary duties and the work around the STP and the final decisions were all ours, and we made those. We were happy that when we announced the STP that Elliott was supported. But to suggest that they've somehow taken some level of responsibility for our fiduciary duty, which seems to be the, the argument is just simply not true. And if they granted some kind of ability to evaluate that, that's exactly what they'll find. So it's not appropriate. But even if they rule, they wouldn't find anything other than what we've been saying, which is we work with the shareholder holder to evaluate opportunities. But the Board and management of this company made the decisions around how to move forward, and we're confident in their outcomes. And that was our job. And we've done it and done it well, I believe.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Next question is from Michael Lapides.
Michael Lapides:
Thanks for taking my questions. And congrats on a great quarter and a lot of progress and change under way this year. Just to tell as I'm thinking about the legislative requests or some of the things you're going to see, I mean, obviously, you guys talk a lot about securitization. But how should we think about other potential Ads that could influence or revise, I guess, rate making process in either Kansas or Missouri to help produce lag.
Tony Somma:
You know, I've got Chuck Caisley, who's our Chief Customer Officer and leads that area -- why don't I have him talk a few minutes about those options. Chuck?
Chuck Caisley:
So what I would tell you is, obviously, securitization helps us look at retiring the fossil assets that we have. But as important as securitization I think, is making sure that anything we do does minimize any lag that might be created. And so specifically, we're looking at aspects that would or provisions within legislation that would allow us to have some certainty around the reinvestment of the proceeds as well as smoothing the timing of gaining the proceeds from the securitized assets as well as the reinvestment. So it wouldn't be subject to a situation where you take something out of rate base, but then it's a year or two until you're able to realize the benefit of the reinvestment. And then finally, I think it's just important to remember that in Missouri we have to maintain and be able to maintain our finance and service accounting, or PISA authorization.
Michael Lapides:
But is there anything you can do to help -- I mean, think about both jurisdictions, both jurisdictions still have historical test years, PISA helps, but PISA has caps and pieces, not cash. Is there anything you could do that's more or it's limited in the amount of cash rate increases? Is there anything you can do legislatively and seek to move from a largely historical test year format for generation and distribution investment in both states? So something that's more -- either has trackers or has the full multiyear forward-looking component to it?
Terry Bassham:
I mean I think there are multiple potential possibilities, as you suggest there. I think that the real trick will be to find the right combination that is passable in both legislatures. And with respect to securitization, those issues are known, fairly well understood and have significant coalitions built around them. I think when you start talking about what some parties may consider fundamentally altering the historical structure of the regulatory process, you could get into some more pushback, and we're really interested in moving this legislation -- legislative package forward. But again, there are multiple things that have been discussed in the past from performance-based rates to decoupling and things like that, that -- and then various riders and trackers that can be looked at.
Michael Lapides:
And then one last 2020 kind of guidance question there and this is probably for Tony. You've recognized very little COLI so far, but you maintained the $20 million of COLI in your 2020 guidance, where it's what, November, 5th right now. That -- this is a little difficult to ask, I guess, is there something that you've seen that gives you conviction in that $20 million being realized? Or is that just kind of your normal annual placeholder from that?
Tony Somma:
Michael, I think it's just kind of a normal annual placeholder, and there's obviously a couple of things we looked at when we looked at our guidance this year and particularly having three really good quarters behind us. And looking at what we've been able to achieve on our cost savings. And we were just pointing that out as that could be a potential headwind, but we have levers, obviously, that we feel comfortable with to narrow the range now at $2.95 to $3.10.
Operator:
Next question is from Durgesh Chopra. Your line is now open.
Durgesh Chopra:
Just going back to the, just going back to the STP. So as I understand it, right, and I think you said this in your prepared remarks, no sort of official approval from the two states so how should we, like what should we be watching for in terms of milestones here, Terry and Tony, between now and your rate cases and sort of toward the latter of your five-year plan to keep track of things and to sort of ensure that things are moving along from a regulatory perspective?
Terry Bassham:
You said regulatory perspective at the end. So again, we'll be talking to you about our process and execution on the STP, because, again, remember, these dockets are for information, there's no request for approvals, there's no large projects that require approvals. So we'll be updating you on our execution on the capital and the O&M, et cetera. From a regulatory perspective, I think the big ones are that, obviously, we'll have an IRP in the spring that April, Missouri will be the first later STP, it'll be working over-the-top of that. There is, I think, January, late January date now for the Missouri staff to file a report. So that's, that will be worth watching. But again, the report out should be commentary, if you will, or views of the STP, but not a ruling far anything or against anything. So again, as we've said before, this is not typical, maybe, but it does give us the ability to work with parties and have some insight into our plan into the work we're doing. So we think gives us a lot of opportunity to do some groundwork ahead of time so that regulators see exactly what we're doing and get buy-in from that perspective. And if there are some concerns, we'll hear that. But again, I think we feel good about the process that's been discussed and the integration between that and the IRP, I think, will work very nice.
Durgesh Chopra:
So it's mid to late next year is when we would hear, when we would see some commentary from the two state commissions?
Terry Bassham:
Probably more like midyear. Yes, probably late summer after the IRP, both states have been filed.
Durgesh Chopra:
And then just a quick follow-up on securitization. Just can you confirm that in your current five-year plan, right, obviously, that is a huge long-term opportunity? But in the current five-year plan, there's like maybe one or two projects that sort of you would require securitization for? And what are those plants that you would require securitization for?
Kevin Bryant:
Hi, Durgesh, this is Kevin. So within the STP, we had, we've assumed one generic plant retirement of about 500 megawatts. So you can compare that to some of the sizes of the plants within our current mix. But again, it's in the out years of the plan. It's generic. We want to make sure we keep it clean, so we can go through our IRP process. And again, it would be one of our smaller units. So the impact from a securitization perspective is pretty modest. We really think about securitization as the potential to accelerate more retirements into the five-year window. So a pretty modest impact on the STP, but doesn't decrease our intensity of pursuing the enabling policy change, as Chuck mentioned.
Terry Bassham:
And remember, we've talked about that our work on even a longer-term T&D perspective, if that got delayed a year or was something that wasn't as timely, we've got the ability to backfill that CapEx plan with additional work that we already have a vision toward. So it should keep us in a position of having a consistent growth rate that we've talked about through the full five years.
Operator:
Next question is from the line of Steven Fleishman.
Steven Fleishman:
So just, I guess, first question is just from, with legislation and focus. I'm curious if there were any changes that occurred politically with the elections in your states this week just to kind of give a framework for that or everything pretty much the same?
Terry Bassham:
Yes, nothing material that would affect our discussions. Governor in Missouri was reelected or elected, I guess, for the first time, Governor Parsons, and remember the governor in Kansas was not up for reelection. Other elections went consistent with what we would expect and nothing really surprising.
Steven Fleishman:
And then going back to the question on the Elliott agreement, standstill agreement ending. Have they indicated at all what their intentions are from here in terms of just ownership of the stock or any strategic stuff?
Terry Bassham:
And we talk with shareholders all the time, and we'll continue to be in communication with Elliott from to time, I'm sure, but no, nothing specific.
Operator:
Next question is from the line of Kevin Fallon.
Kevin Fallon:
I just wanted to follow-on on the STP. That, is effectively the process here that there is no formal approval or anything like that at the end. It's just kind of like foreshadowing on how the future rate cases are going to go? Or is there a potential to maybe settle something or get some higher level of like prudency determined?
Terry Bassham:
So yes, I mean, if we had not been in a very public discussion around the Elliott agreement, then I would suspect, just like back in February, year-end call, when we announced a shift in additional capital at the conclusion of our stock buyback program, we didn't have a docket. We didn't have a process, and our announcement didn't require approvals. That's no different here. But obviously, as a result of all that, we sit in a process where we have the ability, both through the IRP and the STP, to get inputs and then IRP requires a filing. To your point, there won't be a prudency asked or a prudency finding in the STP. We don't have any large projects that would require that kind of pre-approval. What we do think, though, to your point is that we will be able to see people's views of the plan as a whole and kind of how that works in the context, again, of cost to our customers. And we think that's a benefit. But we wouldn't see, we don't believe any kind of pre-approval or prudency determination on the plan given the way it's structured.
Kevin Fallon:
And just a clarification. The review process that the Board underwent as part of the Elliott process earlier, does that mean that you guys have formally ruled out M&A as a future path to pursue and that the strategic -- or the FTP is the -- not just the preferred, it is the way that you're going to go forward and M&A is off the table? Or is it less definitive than that?
Terry Bassham:
Well, our Board of Directors and our company will always do our fiduciary duty with regard to any proposal or any process that would provide shareholder value greater than our current plan. Having said that, we went through a very deliberate, very exhaustive process back in the summer that's just a few months old, and we're very much committed to our STP, and we're working to execute on that as we speak.
Kevin Fallon:
And then just last on kind of an accounting question. It looked like there was a big step-up in other revenues in the quarter, which I just wasn't sure what drove that?
Tony Somma:
This is Tony. Some of that was due to the energy efficiency initiatives that we get compensated for. And then as well as we've had some increased weather-normalized demand. I think that I talked about in the script.
Kevin Fallon:
Okay.
Terry Bassham:
Yes, it's MEA. MEA is the proper acronym in Missouri.
Tony Somma:
MEA is the acronym, yes.
Kevin Fallon:
And there's some offset to that in the O&M line? Or is that all just margin to the bottom line?
Tony Somma:
On MEA, there is offset on the O&M, but there are some performance incentives and throughput incentives that do not have a cost associated with them.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] No further questions on queue. Mr. Bassham, you may proceed.
Terry Bassham:
Thank you. Well, thank you, everybody, and obviously, look forward to talking to many of you next week at EEI Financial, even though not in person. We look forward to conversation. So thank you much. See me have you next week.
Operator:
And that concludes today's conference. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the Q2 2020 Evergy Incorporated Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will follow at that time. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your host, Ms. Lori Wright.
Lori Wright:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone and welcome to Evergy’s second quarter call. Thank you for joining us this morning. Today’s discussion will include forward-looking information. Slide 2 and the disclosure in our SEC filings containing list of some of the factors that could cause future results to differ materially from our expectations and include additional information on non-GAAP financial measures. The releases issued this morning along with today’s webcast slides and supplemental financial information for the quarter, are available on the main page of our website at investors.evergy.com. On the call today we have Terry Bassham, Evergy’s President and Chief Executive Officer; and Tony Somma, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Other members of management are with us and will be available during the question-and-answer portion of the call. I will now turn the call over to Terry.
Terry Bassham:
Thanks, Lori, and good morning, everybody. We’ve got a lot of positive news to discuss today, including our new sustainability transformation plan and solid second quarter results. So our new plan sets the stage for significant value creation and a strong future for Evergy and our stakeholders. We’ll begin today’s call with a deeper dive into the STP and its benefits, then move to the quarter and your questions. Turning first to Slide 4, as you know, earlier this year, the Board established a new Strategic Review & Operations Committee to evaluate and recommend ways to enhance value for our shareholders and all of the company’s stakeholders. Among the options considered were a potential strategic combination and a modified improved stand-alone operating plan and strategy. Both the committee and the Board, as a whole, were well advised in these efforts with each retaining independent financial advisers and consultants to assist in the review. The work over the past 4 months has been extensive. The committee and our financial advisers engaged with a number of third parties who may have been interested in a combination. We also took a fresh look at each element of our operating plan, including our investment priorities, our opportunities for cost savings and operating efficiencies and how and where we allocate capital. Throughout the review, we were focused on 3 core objectives
Tony Somma:
Thanks, Terry. Good morning, everyone. I’ll start with Slide 17. We reported second quarter 2020 GAAP earnings of $0.59 per share compared to $0.57 per share in the second quarter of 2019. The increase in EPS is primarily due to warmer weather, lower operation and maintenance expense and fewer shares outstanding, partially offset by the negative impacts of COVID-19 and the income tax legislation in Kansas. As Terry mentioned, effective January 1, 2021, public electric utilities in Kansas will become income tax exempt. As a result, in June, we booked $13.8 million of income tax expense from the impact of revaluation of deferred income tax assets and liabilities not recovered in rates from non-regulated operations and from the difference in the statutory tax rates recovered through rates and the consolidated income tax rate. While we plan to file for a change in income tax expense reflecting the rates effective January 1, 2021, the new law allows for Kansas Utilities to recover in a regulatory account, any over or under collection of income tax expense as a result of a change in state or federal law. Moving on to adjusted non-GAAP earnings, which were $0.68 per share compared to $0.58 per share in the same period a year ago. As shown in the chart on Slide 16, adjusted EPS was driven higher primarily due to favorable weather, lower O&M and fewer shares outstanding and was partially offset by lower weather-normalized sales primarily due to COVID-19, which we estimate cost us about $0.08. Turning to weather, compared to last year, we estimate weather favorably impacted earnings by $0.10 in the quarter. And compared to normal, we estimate earnings were helped by about $0.06. Moving on to Slide 18, I’ll touch on year-to-date results. Year-to-date GAAP earnings were $202 million or $0.89 per share compared to $239 million or $0.96 per share in the same period last year. Adjusted earnings were $248 million or $1.09 per share compared to year-to-date 2019 adjusted earnings of $251 million or $1.01 per share. Primary drivers compared to last year include lower sales primarily due to COVID-19, which we estimate cost us about $0.09, higher depreciation expense and increase in interest expense, partially offset by lower O&M expense and fewer shares outstanding. Our team continues its focus on operational efficiency to lower operating costs and exceed our savings targets. In the second quarter, we reduced our adjusted O&M by $25 million and through the first half of the year by $62 million. That equates to more than a 10% reduction in adjusted operating costs for the first 6 months of operations in 2020 as compared to last year. As far as merger savings go, we remained ahead of schedule and expect to exceed our initial 2020 merger savings target. These savings were gained without sacrificing operating capabilities, and we recently announced another voluntary exit program for our employees. As for weather compared to last year, we estimate weather was $0.02 unfavorable year-to-date and compared to normal, we estimate earnings were flat. On Slide 19, I’ll give you some details on the sales impact from COVID-19. Commercial industrial sales declined, reached a trough in April and started to improve in May and June, all the while being partially offset by increased residential usage driven by folks staying at home. These trends are consistent with what we observed as businesses started to reopen throughout the quarter. For the second quarter and compared to the same period last year, our estimated weather-normalized total retail sales were about 7% lower, residential sales were up about 5%, while commercial and industrial sales declined 13% and 12%, respectively. We remain optimistic in terms of our local economy suddenly reopening, however, it’s hard for us to predict if the situation will continue to improve or take a step back depending on the future impacts of the virus. Moving on to Slide 20 in our latest financial activities and liquidity, as you may recall, we announced on April 2 that Evergy Kansas Central issued $500 million of 30-year first mortgage bonds at 3.54%. Proceeds were used to redeem $250 million of 5.1% of bonds that matured midyear. In May, Evergy Metro issued $400 million of 10-year mortgage bonds at 2.25%. This financing activity allowed us to pay down short-term debt at very attractive longer term rates and further bolster our liquidity position. We ended June with total liquidity of approximately $2 billion and do not expect new issuances or refinancing activity throughout the remainder of the year. As Terry discussed, we were able to fund our new plan without any new equity issuances and maintaining a solid investment-grade profile. Now wrapping up on Slide 21, for reasons we stated on our year-end call, we did not issue any earnings guidance for 2020. Accordingly, now we are issuing 2020 GAAP EPS guidance of $2.66 to $2.86 and adjusted EPS guidance of $2.90 to $3.10. we are still expecting a decline in year-over-year weather-normalized sales. Our outlook assumes a slow and steady recovery throughout the third quarter and fourth quarter. Some of the additional drivers would include a reduction of 8% to 1% adjusted O&M expense compared to 2019, depreciation expense around $20 million to $30 million higher than last year. COLI proceeds of $20 million and we received roughly about $4 million through the end of June and an effective tax rate of 13% to 15%. I will now turn the call back to Terry.
Terry Bassham:
Thank you, Tony. Now we will be happy to take your questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Shahriar Pourreza from Guggenheim Partners.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Good morning, Terry and Tony. How you are doing?
Terry Bassham:
Good morning. Good.
Tony Somma:
Good morning.
Shahriar Pourreza:
So a couple of questions here. First, it’s obviously a very robust plan you have put out there. Has there even been any partial varying with Missouri and Kansas? If you had any sort of conversations with the commissions? Obviously, you have a 5-year base rate phase in Kansas and conversations we have had with both commissions in the past seems to center on them wanting a fully embedded regulatory process in place before enacting plans like this. So what’s the right podium to seek recovery? The timing of when you think you will seek recovery? And what sort of gives you the sense that the plan is going to be palatable for them? And any sense on the bill impact on this plan?
Terry Bassham:
Yes. So first of all, Shahriar, yes, we have been talking to our regulators. Recall, in particular, on the Kansas side that the investigation, if you will, with the request by the staff to setup the docket was specifically addressing these issues. And if you recall, we actually supported confidential sharing of information with the staff only, but we have been talking to them along with this kind of dialog for several weeks. And in fact, they have made it clear that they don’t have a preference for a strategic versus stand-alone plan to evaluate both. And in general, and going through the materials that have obviously been worked on by the SROC and the board, they have made it clear that their filing was addressing – the original filing was addressing the concern over the public information that was in the Elliott letter and outlined their concerns there. We are very confident that the STP was prepared with those points in mind, and that we will have them involved in what’s expected to be a very good stakeholder process to discuss all of these issues. We think the STP will meet each of their concerns going forward. What the process look like, we have talked about a stakeholder process that would involve the kind of things you mentioned, the regulators might want, which is long-term energy plan as a base for that conversation, but now obviously, we have the STP as well to discuss. We are excited about the opportunity that it provides us for not only additional O&M activity to drive costs, but also investment in things that will drive better reliability and more certainty for customers and also provide us with ability to move forward with our decarbonization efforts and that stakeholder process will provide us with a lot of support when we go to work on regulatory and legislative support for that. And finally, I think your last question was bill impact. I think we – we believe that the bill impact will be very low and in fact, in Kansas, in particular, less than inflation. Could be slightly higher in Missouri simply because of the PISA piece of it, but it would be again lesser as well.
Tony Somma:
This is Tony, Shahriar. We are under the PISA cap.
Terry Bassham:
Yes, certainly under the PISA caps.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Got it. Perfect. That’s helpful. And then just – this is going to take some time for you guys to go through this process. Can you just maybe talk a little bit about the profile of that 6% to 8%? Should we assume it’s a little bit more back-end loaded as you seek recoveries? I mean, i.e., is the increase in that growth rate driven by the back half of ‘24? And then just on top of that, about $700 million of that capital growth opportunities is kind of predicated on LTEP spending, which may or may not transpire. So do you still feel that kind of with the plan you have, you have enough levers in place to sort of hit that 6% to 8% if the LTEP spending doesn’t really transpire?
Tony Somma:
Hey, Shahriar. So as far as the profile, the 6% to 8% is not going to be perfectly linear. As you mentioned, we have a little bit of back-end lift just from the rate case is going into effect. Missouri rates would go into effect starting probably January 1 of ‘23, Kansas, a year after that. So it’s not going to be perfectly linear. As far as the LTEP spending goes, if we are not able to effectuate spending on those assets, we have plenty in the future that we could pull forward, that we can spend money on of other investment opportunities, whether it be grid modernization and grid hardening, etcetera.
Terry Bassham:
Shahriar, we have talked about before having a backlog there, but certainly the process we have been through over the course of the last 3, 4 months has given us a lot more visual, if you will, to a 10-year plan of again modernizing the grid and upgrading the reliability and technology and customer focus programs.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Got it. Terrific guys. I will jump back in the queue and allow others to ask. Thanks guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Durgesh Chopra from Evercore ISI.
Durgesh Chopra:
Hey, good morning, team. Thanks for taking my question.
Terry Bassham:
Good morning.
Durgesh Chopra:
Maybe to the extent that you can comment on this, can you maybe provide us a little bit more color on the strategic review process? Did you actually receive offers of combination? And if you did, then ultimately you decided to go ahead with the stand-alone plan. I don’t know, I am not sure if you can actually comment on that or not, but just any color on that process would be appreciated?
Terry Bassham:
Yes. What I would tell you that the committee conducted a robust and comprehensive process. We had advisors for both the committee and for the company. And yes, we did engage with a number of third-parties. And without getting into a lot of the detail, in the end, the committee and the board both agreed that based on that work and that review that our stand-alone plan produced a better long-term shareholder return profile and that was absolutely the best way to move forward.
Durgesh Chopra:
Understood. Appreciate that. Appreciate that. And then maybe just real quick, and I will jump back in the queue. You mentioned a couple of additional opportunities, including renewable – on the renewable front outside of this current CapEx plan, what sort of – what should we – what are the timelines for those? What are the milestones that we should be looking out in terms of you getting approval for those kinds of expenditures?
Terry Bassham:
Yes. So I will let Kevin Bryant talk a minute about the opportunities. He worked on the – that portion of the SROC STP work.
Kevin Bryant:
Yes. So in terms of the opportunities, we laid out a slide in the deck that describes in more detail kind of grid mod. But it’s all the things you would expect, I mean, updating conductors, poles, circuit breakers, aging infrastructure. So timeline-wise, we also plan to file our integrated resource plan in the first quarter of next year. And so we also describe our long-term energy plan process that Terry mentioned, which is working with stakeholders through the balance of this year to build support and ultimately file that integrated resource plan, which will set the generation planning expectations for the foreseeable future. So that’s probably the biggest, most notable milestone timeline-wise I would point to you.
Durgesh Chopra:
Understood. Thanks guys. I will jump back in the queue. Thank you.
Terry Bassham:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks for the time. I appreciate it.
Terry Bassham:
Good morning.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey, howdie? Perhaps if I can jump in a little bit, I see a lot of discussion on distribution spending, etcetera. Can you talk a little bit more about coal retirements, securitization, specifically in the context of legislation in those states and how that might eventually fit into this plan, both in terms of incremental opportunities as well as to what extent that is already reflected or assumed in order to make those generation renewable investments that you have identified?
Terry Bassham:
Yes. I am going to ask Chuck Caisley, who leads our community regulatory legislative process. So Chuck?
Chuck Caisley:
Yes. I mean, securitization has been an issue that has been filed both in Missouri and in Kansas over the last couple of years. And we have been in conversation with multiple stakeholders over the last 6 months and believe that in the next year or so passing securitization would be something that is achievable in both states. And in fact, as recently as this morning and yesterday, we have had conversations with legislative leaders in both Missouri and Kansas that we believe that the stakeholder coalition exist to move that forward positively. Obviously, when you are talking about dealing with retiring coal assets, a mechanism for recovery on something like that would be a necessary precursor to be able to effectuate that part of the plan.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Just to clarify, your current plan does not assume legislation/securitization in terms of what that would lead you for the slated CapEx here?
Chuck Caisley:
So on the very back end of the plan, it assumes a couple of year process to work through the securitization and ultimately regulatory processes. It does assume retirement of some coal in the back end of the plan and investment in renewables. I think it’s in the 2024 time period.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Thanks for clarifying that. And if I can just clarify further on the EPS CAGR. How do you think about how ratable that is against that specific target? I know that there could be some lumpiness you obviously have some pretty ambitious O&M targets. I mean should we expect to see this ratably especially in the near years or do you think that this is more back end weighted?
Tony Somma:
Hey, good morning, Julien. This is Tony. As I said earlier, it’s not going to be perfectly linear. There will be a little bit lift on the back end simply because that’s when new rates are going to go into effect. In the interim period, we will rely on reducing our O&M that will improve our cash flows to help fund this – on this investment thesis.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Okay, alright. I heard earlier about this. Thank you very much. I appreciate it.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research.
Steve Fleishman:
Yes. Hey, good morning. I guess, first question on the strategic decision. Maybe you could give some color from the standpoint of you mentioned that you think this plan gave the best value. But how much was kind of the risk of approval of a third-party plan part of the decision making? So there is value, but there’s also risk. How much was at risk versus value?
Terry Bassham:
Well, obviously, Steve, probably the greater risk part of the process would have been on the bidder side. So obviously, they would look at their opportunity for success in making bids. In the end, as you look, it always affects both. But there is – certainly, we think the stand-alone plan as we presented today is less risky and more likely to be successful and create more value than a merger situation based on the information we gathered through the process we went through.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. And then on the Kansas side, the review of the information that they asked for and the like as you have given this new stand-alone plan, is there any process that’s kind of expected after you give this to them in terms of kind of reviewing the stand-alone plan or is that just do you expect that they’re just going to take the information and kind of move on from that?
Terry Bassham:
So what I would expect is – I’m sorry. Did I interrupt you?
Steve Fleishman:
No, no. Thank you.
Terry Bassham:
No, what I would expect is, number one, as part of the investigation, we are required to provide a report once a decision is made. And so we will be filing a report in the coming weeks that outlines the outcome of the process. So they’ll receive that. And then what we expect is that the commission staff would participate with other parties in our stakeholder process that will be going through this plan as well as the long-term energy plan. And that’s where we would expect to be able to talk about that. And as I’ve said, obviously, they’ve already seen the information that the board and the SROC saw. So we certainly are in front of them from that perspective. And I think based on all that, we would expect to see through the fall a review and input from stakeholders. One of the opportunities here that I mentioned in my comments is the ability to move up decarbonization in our fleet. And although there needs to be some legislative regulatory work done there, we believe based on our conversations that both states have been supportive of that conversation. So we would continue to have that with them as well as it applies to ultimate approval of the rate case part or recovery parts of the STP.
Steve Fleishman:
Got it. And then one last question and I apologize to ask about the kind of ratability of the growth again. But – so year one of the growth 2020 is obviously well below the 6% to 8%, if you look at your 2020 guidance, I assume due to COVID. But just as – is it fair to say besides the year one, are the other years all generally in that 6% to 8% range? Just can you maybe give us some sense of the extent of the hockey stick, so to speak?
Tony Somma:
Hey, Steve, this is Tony. They’re may be on the lower end of the range in the first couple of years as we’re ramping up spending on the capital side and the offsets we would look to O&M to help obviously reduce that regulatory lag. And then on the back end, obviously, we’re filing rate cases. And so you’re going to get a bit of a lift for those rate cases going into effect in 2023 and 2024.
Terry Bassham:
I would not characterize it as a hockey stick, though.
Steve Fleishman:
Right. Okay. So it’s kind of the 6% to 8% and just maybe in the lower half the beginning and then upper half at the end or something like that roughly?
Tony Somma:
Yes. That’s the trajectory, if you will.
Steve Fleishman:
Perfect. That’s helpful. Thank you.
Terry Bassham:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs.
Michael Lapides:
Hey, guys. Thank you for taking my question, and congratulations on a good quarter. I have an easy one, which is when you think about where we are in the business for 2021, maybe ‘22, the biggest opportunities for O&M or G&A cost reduction or cost management are off of the level you’re going to hit in 2020. I don’t want to look back to 2018 that was a long time ago. I am going to use this year. Where do you think the biggest cost reduction opportunities for year one or year two of this plan really lie within the business?
Tony Somma:
Hey, good morning, Michael. This is Tony from the STP plan perspective, roughly 30% of the savings will come on the generation side, another 30% on the T&D side, about 20% coming from the G&A and then 10% from IT and 10% coming from monthly customer care. Those are kind of the approximate breakout percentages of O&M reduction.
Michael Lapides:
And that’s over the 5 years or is that in the next year or so? Is that...
Tony Somma:
That’s over the 5-year horizon.
Michael Lapides:
Okay. What about the first couple of years? Five years is a long time away where the world is going to change 10 times in five years. So I’m just trying to think about what happens in the next one or two?
Tony Somma:
Well, we’ll be executing on that plan, and I don’t know that in any particular period. One functional area is going to outdo the other as far as cost savings go. Part of the work over this process is that we’ve done a deep benchmarking and spent time reviewing those areas. So it gives us a lot of clarity around where those things would come from.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. And when you think about plant retirements, do you see material plant retirements in the next, call it, two years to three years or is that more kind of back end loaded?
Terry Bassham:
Yes. The plant retirements we will be talking about are obviously coal plants that address CO2 issues and that fits in with the discussion around securitization and regulatory processes that would support that process being moved up. So it would not be closures in the next couple of years.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Thank you. And one last question and it’s a little just kind of detail-oriented stuff. Any plan regarding what you want the level of holding company debt versus operating company debt to look like over time and kind of where you are today versus where you would like to be?
Tony Somma:
So Michael, we would like to kind of stay around that 20% holding company debt compared to the total debt outstanding. It’s kind of a Moody’s metric and we’re a lot below that today.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Thank you, Tony. Much appreciated. Thanks guys for taking the questions.
Tony Somma:
You’re welcome.
Terry Bassham:
Thank you.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates.
Paul Patterson:
Hey, good morning.
Terry Bassham:
Good morning, Paul.
Paul Patterson:
Just a few quick follow-ups. What was the gating factor that – I mean, obviously, you guys have always been looking at CapEx and modernizing the grid and opportunities in that area and what have you. But what was the gating factor that said, hey, we can do this and increase our earnings and everything? Was there any crucial factor, I guess, that sort of led you to this or could you give us a little bit more of a flavor as to what the strategic review did in terms of eliminating these opportunities for you?
Terry Bassham:
Yes. So there is no one single factor. Obviously, first and foremost, we have commitments we made under the merger approvals in both our states. And so that was a beginning spot that we’re absolutely going to be sure we could meet under any revised plan scenario. Secondly, we continue to work to make our cost to customers more competitive and continue to reduce when compared to our regional peers, that’s through our – again commitment around the freeze in the merger. And so those two things were extremely important. We also wanted though to be able to within that context to be able to drive additional investment, which would allow us; number one, to grow the business for shareholders’ benefit, but also begin to update the grid and decarbonize at a quicker pace. So I’m not giving you more than a several but they all had to fit together. And I think that was the key is if the work was how do we bring those together and do it in a fashion which improves upon our ability to invest our growth rate, but yet doesn’t raise rates for customers, as I said, above inflation in Kansas, takes advantage of PISA, which was there as a avenue that Missouri supports. And then when you put all that together to be able to see how that might compare to other options. And we were very confident that this STP is absolutely the better option in front of us today for long-term shareholder value.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. Fair enough. The inflation rate – so when we are talking about the customer impact in Kansas, we are expecting something in the neighborhood of what inflation is in that, what’s that? Is that 2%? Is that what you guys are looking at or is it something else?
Terry Bassham:
It’s kind of the CPI, Paul. I mean, in that zipcode, 2.5 or so.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. And then finally the 90-day – the information sharing agreement could you elaborate a little bit on what that’s about, I guess?
Terry Bassham:
Yes. If you look at how the plan was originally put together, we were moving forward with both path one and path two, if you will, as I recall. But we extended the time for a review of strategic options when COVID occurred. And so we began our work and completed our work on the STP opportunity. And once we came to a conclusion on the strategic opportunity, we thought it best to make the announcement to shareholders. There is still a piece of the SROC charter, which discusses their continued work with the board to make recommendations around benchmarks and KPIs for tracking success of the STP and to assist and collaborate with the board on the optimal management team. And so those things had not been done yet. And so we agreed to with it around a 90-day period for that to be done.
Paul Patterson:
Okay, great. Thanks so much for the info.
Terry Bassham:
Thank you.
Operator:
I am showing no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the conference back to Mr. Terry Bassham.
Terry Bassham:
Thank you, and thank you everybody for joining. Obviously, we are excited to be moving forward with the STP. We look forward to working with our regulators and our stakeholders. And we look forward to talking to each of you more as we continue to progress down our path. So thank you very much for joining. Look forward to talking to you in the future.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today’s conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Q1 2020 Evergy, Inc. Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Ms. Lori Wright. Thank you. Please go ahead, ma'am.
Lori Wright:
Thank you, Amanda. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Evergy's First Quarter Call. Thank you for joining us this morning. Today's discussion will include forward-looking information. Slide 2 and the disclosure in our SEC filings contain a list of some of the factors that could cause future results to differ materially from our expectations and include additional information on non-GAAP financial measures. We issued our first quarter earnings release last night. The release is available along with today's webcast slides and supplemental financial information for the quarter on the main page of our website at evergyinc.com. On the call today, we have Terry Bassham, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Tony Somma, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Other members of management are with us and will be available during the question-and-answer portion of the call. As summarized on Slide 3, Terry will give an overview of the quarter and provide a business update, including a discussion of COVID-19. Terry -- Tony will update you on the details of our latest financial results and 2020 drivers. With that, I'll hand the call to Terry.
Terry Bassham:
Thanks, Lori. Good morning, everybody. Before I get started, I want to extend my deepest sympathies to those that have been directly impacted by the pandemic. I'd also like to extend my sincere appreciation to those professionals and critical functions who continue to work, especially first responders and frontline medical professionals who have been the real heroes through all of this. As I'm sure it's been for everyone, the last couple of months have been unique and challenging. I'm proud to work in the industry as a whole, and I'm proud of Evergy, specifically, what we've done to meet the needs of our customers, employees and shareholders. We remain laser-focused on doing our job to deliver safe and uninterrupted power, especially during a time when we all are relying on electricity more than ever to power our increasingly virtual lives. I want to thank our entire team for their continued focus on safety, customer service and execution during these trying times. This effort has been a reflection of Evergy's "people first" culture. Now turning to results. As you can imagine, we have a lot to cover this morning, so I'll cover the emerging issues and our response to those and turn it over to Tony. Tony to get into the details of our financial results, where despite the warmer-than-normal winter weather, we delivered GAAP earnings per share of $0.31 and non-GAAP adjusted earnings per share of $0.41. Also note, the Board displayed confidence and the flexibility and stability of our current plan by declaring a dividend in line with previous quarter. Now on Slide 5, I'll update you on the latest on our COVID-19 response plans. Being in the Midwest has been an advantage as we face this global pandemic. Not only does our service territory include rural areas that naturally provide for easier social distancing, but from a time perspective, we were a couple of weeks later than many other parts of the nation, which allowed us to take proactive measures towards the health and safety of our employees, customers and communities. Before confirmed cases started to arise in Kansas and Missouri, we implemented our pandemic response plan, as outlined in our crisis management plan, which resulted in our employees able to work from home, doing so and those in critical operational functions, taking preventative measures to ensure the continued delivery of safe and reliable power. This included practicing social distancing protocols among fellow employees as well as with customers and in the community. And we began implementing remote staging locations to reduce overall contact. Over 1,500 employees were trained to administer temperature testing, and we are administering over 7,000 temperature recordings per week. With over 2,000 employees working from home and with schools and businesses closed, including most childcare providers, we expanded our paid time-off policies to increase flexibility to accommodate employees as they deal with these unprecedented times. Our resolute focus on employee safety has strengthened by technology and innovation. Our team developed a mapping tool to actively monitor COVID-19 risk exposure to our people. By tracking these conditions geographically as they worsened, we were able to pinpoint developing hotspots. This up-to-date analysis allowed us to take tactical decisions regarding when and where to elevate pandemic response plans. With these proactive measures and our employees' vigilance, we've been able to thus far minimize the impact to our organization and its operations. We've had only one confirmed case of COVID-19, and I'm pleased to say that employee has made a full recovery and is back at work. We knew our employees weren't alone dealing with the uncertainty, so we made commitments to our customers to ease the burden caused by this pandemic. We were one of the first to implement the suspension of disconnections, and as conditions further deteriorated, we extended the original time line through June 1. Additionally, we're waiving late fees and adding new payment options for customers to help individuals and businesses manage the impacts of these hard-hitting times. I'm proud of our team's planning, innovation and focus that has significantly limited the impact to our business and the communities and customers we serve. Moving on to Slide 6. I'll expand on the operational impact we've seen. There is no doubt that this pandemic has impacted our business, but we believe that we remain well positioned. Our flexible capital plan is focused on critical projects that should increase reliability and drive down future operating costs. The majority of these projects are smaller in nature and diversified across our service territories. As a result, our plan has less risk when compared to a plan that includes large projects that not only have regulatory risk, but also carry increased supply chain and human capital risk. We currently don't see a need to reduce our capital program over the 5-year forecast period. We have, however, deferred certain projects due to our commitment to practicing social distancing. These projects have been postponed until later in the year or some have been pushed into 2021. This is a shift in timing and not a reduction in our 5-year infrastructure investment plan. Another benefit of our plan is that it does not require the issuance of additional capital or equity while eliminates market risk. Throughout March and April, we've closely monitored our supply chain for availability of labor and materials. Fortunately, we were well positioned with a diverse supplier mix and intentional redundancies in our major supplier categories. As a result, we haven't encountered significant issues and currently don't anticipate availability issues with our supply chain. We conducted regular communication with our Tier 1 and Tier 2 critical suppliers and participate in industry-wide collaboration efforts to stay ahead of potential issues. While we did see some short-term impacts on PPE, mask and sanitation products, we didn't see any significant delays or major inventory issues, and we were also able to leverage several local suppliers who rose to the occasion to fill the gaps. Since the beginning of the pandemic, we have remained in close contact with our large commercial and industrial customers in order to form a more complete picture of how this is likely to impact demand. As stay-at-home and business restrictions were put in place, we definitely saw commercial and industrial load decline as businesses throughout our service territory began to reduce production, furlough and layout workers, and send employees home to work remotely and even shut down. Tony will give you some additional details in a bit, but fortunately, as we saw commercial and industrial sales decline, residential load had a healthy uptick. As a result, increases in higher-margin residential sales served to offset much of the lower margins from commercial and industrial sales. However, since the sales impacts occurred late in the quarter, it was not a significant driver for margin overall, and we did not see a material impact in the quarter. In April, we continued to see commercial and industrial load decline, while residential demand continue to grow. As we evaluate retail sales from April, we see a more complete picture of the full month impact that COVID-19 has had on our sales. Although it's too early to say with certainty that April reflects the greatest impact to demand we will see during the pandemic, we are optimistic that the region's easing of business restrictions in May, combined with the continued increase in residential demand, will support improved retail sales as we head into the summer months. Although we realized that it may take a while to ramp up, it's encouraging to hear some of our large customers talk about their implementation plans and even when they include a gradual restart of operations. We are studying a range of possible outcomes, and we have plans to develop to remain well positioned in each scenario, supported by strong liquidity and several levers to pull on the O&M side, which would reduce the financial impact of a sales decline. Our flexibility and resiliency have allowed us to remain focused on all of our strategic priorities. Now to Slide 7. On the regulatory front, we haven't had to navigate any significant disruptions and don't envision this becoming an issue since we have no major dockets open and none of the near-term horizon with our next rate cases slated for 2022 and 2023. This has given us the opportunity to speak with the regulators in a time of reprieve from rate increases or any other large request. The Kansas Corporation Commission put a stay on new dockets and shut down operations in mid-March, but then returned in early April and have been working remotely since. Missouri Public Service Commission has been working remotely since March 24 and never officially halted operations. We were able to stay in constant contact with both commissions to update them on our latest pandemic response efforts and to discuss our concerns. As you can imagine, conversations were primarily focused on our customers' needs. In addition to our suspension of disconnects and waiving fees for our customers, we've also been discussing new options to allow businesses to pay back bills over a longer period and for residential customers to move to payment plans to avoid large growth in monthly payments over their norm. As we explained our efforts to track pandemic expenses and potential loss revenue, conversations with our commissions expanded into discussions around alternatives for recovery of these impacts as well as ways to manage the impact of the expected increases and bad debt expenses. Yesterday, we filed for an accounting authority order in both Kansas and Missouri that will allow us to track certain expenses and lost revenue as well as any offset -- cost offsets for future consideration at our next rate cases. The Kansas Commission staff also filed yesterday its report and recommendation, recommending that all utilities be required to offer minimum customer protections of a 12-month payment plan for all delinquent account balances that arose as a result of the disconnect stay and a waiver of our late fees during the period of delinquency and repayment, coupled with a recommendation that utilities be allowed to defer cost of bad debt expense and fee waiver as a result of the new customer protections. If adopted by the KCC, we see this as a true benefit to both customers and the company. The staff also stated any additional customer programs or deferral request should be addressed in a utility-specific AAO request. Switching to a legislative update. In Kansas, the legislature recessed in mid-March, which is two weeks earlier than normal, and are likely to come back in May to finish the budget. There are a couple of items that address utilities, including a bill we are strongly in favor of that allows us to offer special economic rates to grow business and jobs in Kansas, similar to what exists in Missouri. At this point, we don't know what the agenda will be or what, if anything, will get done yet this year. In Missouri, the legislature reached its annual spring break in March. They came back last week and there was only a couple of weeks left in session. Constitutionally, they must pass a budget by Friday. We don't believe much, if anything though, that impacts us will be considered this year. We are not actively pursuing legislation in Missouri this year. Finally, let me give you a quick update on our Board committee process before I turn things over to Tony. As many of you probably saw, our Strategic Review & Operation Committee's recommendation to the Board has been delayed by a couple of months. We're still meeting, albeit virtually, and remain focused on our two-pronged mission
Anthony Somma:
Thank you, Terry, and good morning, everyone. I'll start with results on Slide 10 of the presentation. We reported first quarter 2020 GAAP earnings of $0.31 per share compared to $0.39 per share in the first quarter of 2019. The decrease in EPS is primarily due to warmer winter weather and lower COLI benefits, partially offset by lower operation and maintenance expense. We turned in a solid quarter, notwithstanding extremely warm winter weather that obviously hurt sales, and no COLI income compared to over $6 million in the same period last year. Adjusted non-GAAP earnings were $0.41 per share compared to $0.44 per share in the same period a year ago. As shown in the chart on Slide 10, adjusted EPS was driven lower primarily by unfavorable weather and lower other income and was partially offset by lower O&M and fewer shares outstanding. Importantly, our efforts towards cost management yielded a $37 million decline in O&M, 13% lower than the first quarter last year. This reduction is highlighted by a decrease in T&D expenses due to cost reduction initiatives and the impacts from the January 2019 winter storm, overall reduced headcount and associated benefit expense, and lower plant expense from fewer outages at our generating units. As far as merger savings go, we continue to execute well. We exceeded our 2019 targets, remained ahead of schedule through the first quarter this year, and expect to beat the 2020 mark established by the original merger targets. When we first began discussing the accretion of Evergy, there are nearly 6,400 positions among our legacy companies and Wolf Creek, our shared nuclear facility. Today, we're down to about 5,400. We've created a more efficient company without sacrificing operating capabilities, and all of this has been accomplished while staying true to our commitment of no involuntary layoffs as a result of the merger. Instead, we've capitalized on headcount reduction through normal attrition and voluntary separation programs. Turning to sales. We saw a decline in sales throughout the quarter, primarily from a change in year-over-year weather. Residential sales were down 10%, commercial declined 5% and industrial sales fell 0.6%, respectively. Compared to last year, heating degree days were 19% lower and we estimate the impact to earnings was $0.12, compared to normal heating degree days were 9% lower. We estimate earnings were unfavorably impacted by about $0.06. On Slide 11, I'll give you some details on the sales impact from COVID-19. As we move through March and witnessed the closing of businesses, we started to see the impacts. As expected on a weather-normalized basis, commercial and industrial sales started to decline. As the shelter-at-home provisions kept folks in their homes, we saw a corresponding pickup in residential sales. As Terry mentioned earlier, from an earnings perspective, the higher margins in residential sales provided an offset, at least partially, to lower margin commercial and industrial sales. Given the timing of pandemic response actions in our jurisdictions, the resulting impacts became more apparent throughout the month of March. As we monitored sales through April, we saw further declining trends in commercial and industrial loads. Residential sales remained elevated but didn't keep pace with the degradation on the commercial and industrial side. Compared to last year, our estimated weather-normalized total retail sales were about 8% lower. Turning to the change in sales mix across customer classes. Residential sales were up roughly 5%, while commercial and industrial sales declined 13% and 15%, respectively. Again, the higher residential sales will provide some offset. We expect trends at these levels to weigh on retail margin. If we adjust for 2 large oil refinery customers that had planned reduced usage outside of COVID-19 impacts, our April industrial sales decline would be around 10% compared to last year. As you can see in the graph on the slide, as those customers started ramping up, we saw the corresponding pickup in sales towards the end of April. Additionally, it's important to note that 2 industrial sectors that are prevalent in our territory are experiencing unusual events simultaneous to COVID-19. The airline industry is dealing with the 737 MAX issue and oil production refineries with the oil crisis. Both issues could still weigh on demand in future months irrespective of the recovery from COVID-19. Now we look to offset margin declines by balancing the preservation of long-term value creation and adjustments to O&M. Some of the levers we will pull include a hiring pause, reduced travel spend, reduced discretionary maintenance spending and potentially an additional voluntary early retirement program. While we have a ways to go in terms of opening up our economy, we may be turning a corner as many businesses in our territory, including a number of large manufacturing facilities, that plans to reopen later this month after multi-week shutdowns. Moving on to Slide 10. Let me touch on our latest financing activities and liquidity. On April 2, Evergy Kansas Central issued $500 million of 30-year first mortgage bonds at 3.45%. Proceeds will be used to redeem $250 million of the 5.1% bonds that were set to mature in July, and the remainder proceeds were used to reduce short-term debt. Also in April, we requested authority from the Missouri Public Service Commission to issue up to $400 million at Evergy Metro to pay down short-term debt and further bolster our liquidity position. I'm happy to report the commission approved our request yesterday, and we expect to complete a transaction by midyear. We ended April with a total liquidity of $1.9 billion with $1.6 billion of that as capacity available on our master credit facility and over $300 million of cash on hand. We are confident in our liquidity position across the range of these scenarios that we've contemplated. Now wrapping up on Slide 13. As a reminder, we haven't issued 2020 EPS guidance, and we don't have plans to issue guidance during the pendency of the committee's work, but I can give you an update on some of the drivers for the year that have changed. Obviously, given the sales trends that we're seeing thus far, we now expect a weather-normalized sales decline this year. With ongoing uncertainty, it's too early to estimate the full year impact. With our cost reduction execution in the first quarter and the expected incremental reductions that we're targeting for the remainder of the year, we are now targeting a 6% to 9% reduction in adjusted O&M in 2020 compared to 2019 versus our previous target of 5% to 8% reduction. We remain optimistic as we're starting to see the nation and our service territories begin to open back up. We realize it's going to take some time for the economy and sales to bounce back. We're confident in our position and plan as we all unite together to put this behind us. We will continue to do our part and are staying focused on doing the right things for employees, customers, communities and shareholders. With that, I will turn the call back over to Terry.
Terry Bassham:
All right. I appreciate everybody joining. Now we'll take questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. Your first question comes from Paul Patterson.
Paul Patterson:
Can you hear me? Hello.
Terry Bassham:
We can now.
Paul Patterson:
Sorry about that. Okay. So I was just wondering, could you give us a little bit of a flavor for when -- I noticed that you guys said that the CapEx has been changed, though there's been some deferral with respect to projects into the second half of 2020 and then 2021. But when I look at the annual CapEx numbers, it doesn't seem like anything has materially changed year-from-year. So should I assume that just -- it isn't that material in the course of 2020 versus 2021?
Terry Bassham:
Yes. We were trying to stress that we're being flexible in our projects over the size and type as we can. And given continued social distancing, we might move some projects back and around. But I wouldn't say we have definitive plans around moving year-to-year that are material.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. And then in terms of just how we see CapEx and sort of where -- let me ask, if we do see deep recession, and I know it's hard to tell being the unprecedented nature of what we're seeing right now, but if there was a deep or significant recession, how should we think about the long-term CapEx numbers that you have? How flexible are you on those, I guess, if you follow me?
Terry Bassham:
Well, we're flexible in the sense that the same description of the projects, their size and their type, would give us that kind of flexibility. So we don't have a large single project that we might start and have to finish. Having said that, we also don't currently see any need for deferral, given our liquidity position and our plans for both execution on those projects and our balance sheet as a whole.
Paul Patterson:
So there isn't a lot of economic sensitivity, I guess, to the CapEx is how we should think about it even if we were to see a significant fall off in economic activity? Is that safe to say?
Terry Bassham:
Well, again, I hate to make a generalization around something that's so unprecedented at this time. But again, I would stress the flexibility we have around each of the projects so that we have the ability to move things around, and that from what we can see to date, we don't see a need to make any changes to either near-term or long-term plans.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. Fair enough. And then on the -- just in terms of arrears or in terms of bill payment, could you give us a little bit more flavor as to -- if you're seeing any significant change, either in residential or commercial or what have you, in terms of people being late with their bills or paying on time, that kind of thing?
Terry Bassham:
Well, we've certainly seen the effect in bills that you would see, which is a little early to see a big uptick in what would have been disconnections or collections around bills as it's really a month old. That's why we're working so hard both with our own project, our own communications and with our commissions around opportunities to work with customers to avoid those bills from building up. So part of that Kansas recommendation from the staff that we talked about provided a recommendation that customers would be allowed to spread any delinquencies over a 12-month period. That was one of the things we were talking about, and then obviously suggested also that utilities to be able to recover those costs. So it's a little early in that process, but we haven't seen any real spikes in either the accounts or arrear just yet, but it's still a little early, that's for sure.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. And then just finally, on the strategic review, you mentioned the July 30 date and what have you. And you also mentioned that, of course, the markets have been a little bit of turmoil in them. Just any sense as to if that's changed any -- if that's changed your perspective at all or emphasis or just sort of give more of a flavor maybe if you have one in terms of how that might have altered or not the strategic review, and what options you guys are -- might be exploring more or less as a result of it?
Terry Bassham:
I don't think it's changed our perspective at all on either the chore of committee or the focus of the committee. Obviously, given what was happening in the market, it made sense to everybody that we should delay, if you will, the market -- strategic market activity. We continue to meet. We continue to work on the stand-alone plan analysis, which is obviously internal to us, and make progress there. So we're working. We're meeting. Focus stays the same. Just simply the market piece of that, obviously, we thought would benefit with addition of some additional time. That's really the only change at all, nothing from a focus perspective. .
Operator:
Your next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
I wanted to follow-up on the O&M reductions. I'm just trying to square that against the underlying sales trends here. And thank you for the detail, I appreciate it. Can you talk a little bit to the netting here of the updates? So you gave some sensitivities earlier. You gave some thoughts on the sales trends in April. What -- when you think about an EPS shift, and I know you don't have guidance out there for '20, but how much of a reduction are we talking about in sales expectations relative to what seems like a modest reduction from 5% to 8% to 6% to 9% reduction on the O&M? So tell me if I'm missing something there, one versus the other. And then the follow-up to that would be, how do you think about '21 and onwards? And I know it's very early, but I'm thinking more on the cost side, the sustainability of those reductions.
Terry Bassham:
So let me take maybe the middle one first. The 6% to 9% decrease is really, I would say, a product of our work, lest a real offset related to maybe COVID, they fit together, obviously. So I wouldn't suggest to you the 6% to 9% is a limit there. But certainly, that's an uptick, and that's due to our work that we've already been working on in the last year and certainly recently. That's less directly connected, I guess, to what we're seeing from sales because, to your first question, it's really hard, again, as we're sad to say, April would necessarily be what we'd expect going forward. And so I think what we're seeing though is that even though we saw a downtick in April, as most folks would expect, we're happy to see that we -- it is manageable. And at least in the near term, we think we're able to offset a lot of that impact. Obviously, if those impacts lasted all year long, it get more difficult as the year went on. From a '21 perspective, yes, don't really have any way to gauge what effect it might have on '21 other than to say, again, we don't see any capital projects that need to be adjusted. And I would tell you that the 6% to 9% is reflective of OEM cuts that we believe are sustainable.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Maybe if I can ask for a little bit of a clarification. When you think about the ability to tap further in some of these cost reductions, what would it take for you to move forward on that? I mean, clearly, April has been probably the most acutely impacted here, and we'll see what the trend is in May and onwards. But how do you think about the need to tap into more to 6% to 9%. And I don't know if we're dancing around the subject of guidance here a little bit, but how do you think about tapping more into that over the course of the year and what the depth of that is?
Terry Bassham:
I don't have a range for you, but I would say, obviously, if it continued to be an acute sales issue then you can consider start doing things that are not sustainable. You do things to be responsive to that event. We'd always watch to be sure we weren't doing anything that was damaging the long-term shareholder value. But you could do some things that you wouldn't expect to do on an ongoing basis. We have some room there, I guess, to say. But again, the 6% to 9% are things that we're planning to work on that are sustainable and in our plan. Other than that, obviously, from an ongoing analysis perspective, we're working on other things that could be included too, but we're not through with that work as we move forward over the course of the next couple of months.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
And remind us quickly, your stay-out subject is strictly to Kansas, right? There is some latitude to the extent necessary to shift at least planning in Missouri, right?
Terry Bassham:
There is. We could move a case up if we really needed to, but our plan continues to be to leave it in place for 2022.
Operator:
And your next call comes from Steve Fleishman.
Steven Fleishman:
Just on the effective tax rate, the comment there on the continuing to monitor pandemic impacts. Can you discuss how that impacts your tax rate?
Anthony Somma:
Steve, this is Tony. So I think the guidance drivers that we issued initially were 12% to 14% effective tax rate. That's something that we'll be monitoring going forward. Obviously, if our taxable income goes down, that rate could change over time.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay. It's just simply that. Okay.
Anthony Somma:
Yes.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay. And then I know someone had already asked about kind of color on the review, strategic review. Just -- do you anticipate that there would be need for any further delay? Or you think at this point that this is kind of the time -- this is the likely time line?
Terry Bassham:
Yes. I don't want to get out ahead of the committee, but I don't think so. I mean I think 60 days, I think, gave us an opportunity to continue on the stand-alone plan work and give us some time for things to settle out. But I wouldn't anticipate at this point, additional delay.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. Your next question comes from Durgesh Chopra.
Durgesh Chopra:
Just one question for me. Can you perhaps give us any color on your FFO-to-debt or other credit metrics? Were you tracking versus targets? And then with the new O&M reductions and then perhaps what you're seeing in the top line, some drag on sales, where do you expect to end the year versus your targets?
Anthony Somma:
This is Tony. So on our FFO-to-debt targets, at the utilities, in general, we're targeting 18% or above; at the holding company, 15% or above. I believe Moody's just came out with some reports earlier and kind of affirmed our ratings. As far as targets towards the end of the year, that kind of depends on the duration of the sales decline and also kind of to the extent that the O&M offsets.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. And there are no further questions at this time.
Terry Bassham:
All right. Thank you, operator, and thank you, everybody, for calling in. Everybody, be safe. Have a good weekend. Thanks.
Operator:
That does conclude today's call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the fourth quarter 2019 Evergy earnings conference call. At this time, all participants’ lines are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers’ presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during this session, you will need to press star, one. Please be advised that today’s conference is being recorded. If you require any further assistance, please press star, zero. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Lori Wright, Vice President, Corporate Planning, Investor Relations and Treasurer. Please go ahead, ma’am.
Lori Wright:
Thank you Catherine. Good morning everyone and welcome to Evergy’s fourth quarter call. Thank you for joining us this morning. Today’s discussion will include forward-looking information. Slide 2 and the disclosure in our SEC filings contain a list of some of the factors that could cause future results to differ materially from our expectations and include additional information on non-GAAP financial measures. We issued our fourth quarter earnings release and 2019 10-K earlier this morning. These items are available along with today’s webcast slides and supplemental financial information for the quarter on the main page of our website at evergyinc.com. On the call today, we have Terry Bassham, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Tony Somma, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Other members of management are with us and will be available during the question and answer portion of the call. As summarized on Slide 3, Terry will recap the year and provide a strategic business update. Tony will update you on the details of our latest financial results and 2020 drivers. With that, I’ll hand the call to Terry.
Terry Bassham:
Thanks Lori and good morning everybody. Let’s start on Slide 5. We reported full year GAAP earnings of $2.79 per share compared to $2.50 per share earned in 2018. Adjusted earnings per share were $2.89 in 2019 compared to $2.54 per share a year ago. The favorable results were driven by reducing operating expenses, fewer shares outstanding, and rate case outcomes partially offset by higher depreciation and unfavorable weather. Our ability to overcome headwinds and execute our merger plan, particularly through the disciplined cost management, allowed us to deliver consistently throughout the year. 2019 was successful on many fronts. Let me touch on a few of the highlights. We exceeded our 2019 net merger savings target of $110 million, ending the year at $150 million or 36% above target, and drove our adjusted O&M down over 9% on a year-over-year basis. We raised our dividend by 6.3% to an indicated annual rate of $2.02 per share. We executed our capital allocation plan by investing $1.2 billion in infrastructure to maintain customer reliability as well as continued our share repurchase program that was announced as part of our merger plan. We returned almost $2.1 billion in capital to our shareholders with $1.6 billion coming through share repurchases and another $463 million in the form of dividends. We elected plant-in-service accounting, or PISA, in Missouri and initiated infrastructure spending that is incentivized by the legislation. We rebranded our operating utilities to provide consistency across our service territory and now all customers across Kansas and Missouri know us as Evergy. We advanced our longstanding commitment to environmental stewardship and announced a new carbon reduction commitment that will reduce CO2 emissions 80% by 2050 from 2005 levels. We’ve maintained our strong customer reliability metrics, and lastly and importantly, we continue to build the Evergy culture by staying true to our four core values of safety, integrity, ownership, and adaptability. I want to thank our entire team for their continued focus and teamwork on these accomplishments. Now looking at Slide 6, as discussed on our third quarter earnings call in November, we have been evaluating additional capital investment opportunities and believe there are significant additional infrastructure investment opportunities in Missouri. With a full year of post-merger capital planning under our belts, we’ve used a rigorous allocation process to identify and prioritize projects that enhance grid reliability while reducing operations and maintenance expense. As a result of our work, we are announcing $1.5 billion of incremental infrastructure spending opportunities through 2024 in areas including renewable generation and grid modernization. This raises our five-year capex plan from $6.1 billion to $7.6 billion. With PISA enacted with Missouri, which is designed to encourage enhanced infrastructure investment, the majority of the incremental spend, or approximately $1 billion, will be directed towards PISA-qualified projects. This update to our capital plan will increase our rate base growth to 3% to 4% over this period relative to our prior guidance of 2% to 3%. This enables us to undertake critical investments that will improve the service we provide to our customers while also delivering what we believe is a more attractive and balanced growth profile for our shareholders. With the increased capital investment, we have elected to halt the remainder of our share repurchase program. As of the end of 2019, we had completed 75% of our repurchase program, repurchasing 45 million of the 60 million share authorization. Halting the final 15 million shares is expected to be credit positive and creates balance sheet capacity to make infrastructure investments. I want to reiterate that our overall objective of targeting competitive shareholder returns, maintaining reliability and keeping customer rates competitive has not changed. We believe our updated capital allocation strategy will drive greater benefits to our customers and communities from enhanced reliability and grid resiliency while aligning with Missouri’s initiative of building infrastructure and creating jobs. This is a true win-win across the board. Moving on to Slide 7, I’ll update you on our merger savings. A large part of our merger thesis was built upon leveraging the synergies of neighboring service territories and creating value for all shareholders. At the time of our merger, both legacy companies had room for improvement from a cost perspective. Our progress thus far has already surpassed our original benchmarking. As I mentioned earlier, we’ve exceeded our estimated 2019 $110 million original net merger savings target by 36% and we’ll continue to focus on over-achieving these original targets, which were established during our merger regulatory proceeding. We have identified additional opportunities for performance improvement. We’ve evaluated our benchmarking performance in 2018 and now have 2019 results. This has yielded a positive trend in our cost performance as we’ve seen a significant decline in our costs, particularly when adjusting for costs that were a result of the merger. To maintain the momentum of our positive cost trajectory, we’ll continue to focus on opportunities to streamline, automate, digitize and otherwise enhance our processes and performance execution. While the merger provided a platform for synergies, our intensity around cost management remains paramount, as evidenced by our expected 5% to 8% O&M reduction in 2020. We continue to execute on the opportunities that were identified in the merger and we’ll continue to focus on future cost reduction opportunities. Our team is engaged in ongoing continuous improvement to drive value for our stakeholders through aggressive cost management. Now looking at Slide 8, beyond our strong financial and operations results, we’re continuing our focus on being good stewards of the environment. We’ve already reduced carbon emissions by 45% from the 2005 levels, and as we announced on our third quarter call, we expect to achieve at least 80% carbon reduction through natural retirements; however, we’ll continue to evaluate and consider additional opportunities to execute on these plans sooner if possible and appropriate. As part of providing clarity to customers, we’re continuously looking for new ways to make renewable energy available. As you may have seen in our recent press release, we’ve contracted 660 megawatts of wind to fulfill large commercial and industrial customer demand on new special green tariffs that we worked hard to put in place during our 2018 rate cases. The four announced wind farms which were originally identified through the RFP process conducted right after our merger in late ’18 will be added via purchase power agreement consistent with the tariffs in Missouri and Kansas. Again, as evidenced by our carbon target, we will continuously decarbonize our generation mix consistent with providing reliable and affordable service to our customers, and currently have included $500 million of rate-based renewables in our five-year plan. Our next triannual RRP filing in both Kansas and Missouri is scheduled for 2021. This will be our first time filing as Evergy as well as our first time filing in Kansas. The green tariffs are an important economic development tool that our team has been marketing in order to retain top customers and attract large customers that otherwise may not locate in our service territories. Before I turn it over to Tony, I’d like to discuss the agreement we announced this morning with Elliott Management. As part of the agreement, Paul Keglevic, former chief executive officer of Energy Future holdings, and Kirk Andrews, current Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of NRG Energy have been appointed to the board as new independent directors. At the time of the 2020 annual meeting of shareholders in May, the size of the board will be reduced to 13 directors following the retirement of four current Evergy directors. We will provide additional information regarding the 13 directors who will stand for election at the 2020 annual meeting in our proxy in the coming weeks. Further, we’re forming a strategic review and operations committee. I will be on the committee along with Art Stall, Paul Keglevic and Kirk Andrews. The committee will explore ways to enhance shareholder value. The committee plans to complete its review and make any relevant expectations to the Evergy board in the first half of 2020. Given the mandate of the strategic review and operations committee, we will hold off on issuing current year and long-term earnings guidance while the committee conducts its review. While we expect to provide comprehensive updated guidance at the conclusion of the committee’s work, we’ll provide more details today regarding some of our expected 2020 drivers, including the enhanced capital plan. We welcome the new directors and the vast experience they bring in the utility and power industry to support the work we have underway to enhance long-term shareholder value and serve our customers, communities and employees, and Elliott recognizes our commitment to serve the best interests of all Evergy stakeholders. We have an exciting opportunity in front of us as we look to build upon the momentum we’ve created since the merger closed in June of 2018, and we look forward to executing on the plan. With that, I’ll now turn the call over to Tony.
Tony Somma:
Thanks Terry, and good morning everyone. I’ll start with results on Slide 10 of the presentation. This morning, we reported fourth quarter 2019 GAAP earnings of $0.28 per share compared to $0.07 per share in the fourth quarter of 2018. The increased EPS is primarily due to lower O&M, lower shares outstanding, tax benefits from higher amortization of accumulated deferred income taxes, which were partially offset by higher depreciation expense. Adjusted non-GAAP earnings were $0.32 per share compared to $0.15 per share in the same period a year ago. As shown on the chart on Slide 11, adjusted EPS was driven primarily by fewer shares outstanding and lower O&M, and was partially offset by unfavorable weather and higher depreciation expense. For the quarter, residential sales were down 3% while commercial and industrial sales fell 1% and 1.8% respectively. The lower sales in the quarter were primarily due to weather, which we estimate negatively impacted earnings by $0.04 compared to last year and about $0.01 when compared to normal. Moving on to Slide 12, I’ll touch on full-year results. For the year, GAAP earnings were $670 million or $2.79 per share, compared to $536 million or $2.50 per share last year. 2019 GAAP results were driven by the full-year impact of Evergy Metro and Evergy Missouri West results and lower operating and maintenance expenses, partially offset by higher depreciation expense and lower retail sales driven by unfavorable weather compared to 2018. Adjusted earnings were $694 million or $2.89 per share compared to 2018 adjusted earnings of $681 million or $2.50 per share. As detailed on the slide, the increase in adjusted earnings when compared to last year was primarily driven by a reduction in O&M of about $120 million, a decrease of more than 9%, new retail rates, and accretion from fewer shares outstanding. Partially offsetting this increase was higher depreciation expense of around $84 million and lower sales due to less favorable weather. The 2019 weather impact was less favorable than 2018 and pro forma retail sales declined as a result. Residential sales fell 4.3% and commercial sales were down 1.7%. We estimate weather cost us $0.22 when compared to last year but was a benefit of about $0.10 when compared to normal. Pro forma industrial sales were down 1% compared to last year due primarily to two large customers in the chemical and oil sectors that saw decreased demand at their plants throughout the year. If we remove the impact of these two large low-margin customers, industrial sales were up 20 basis points. Overall growth in the number of customers continued, making the ninth straight year of customer growth for our company. Moving on to Slide 13, let me touch on our latest financing activities. As Terry mentioned, we have ceased future share repurchases given our identification of incremental capital projects that drive value for customers. Since initiating the program in August of 2018, we have repurchased just over 45 million shares. This program was put in place to rebalance the consolidated capital structure and was a key driver of EPS growth on the front end of our merger plan as we’ve been working through our rate stay-out period. Looking forward to financing activities this year, Evergy Central Kansas has $250 million of 5.1% first mortgage bonds maturing in July that we’ll look to refinance. We expect this will be the only long-term debt financing activity in 2020. Wrapping up on Slide 14, let me give some details on our 2020 drivers. As Terry mentioned, we’re not issuing 2020 EPS guidance today. I’d like to provide you with a few drivers for the year. Consistent with 2019, we’re expecting weather normalized sales to be between flat and 50 basis points of growth. On the back of strong O&M cost performance in 2019, we’re targeting an additional 5% to 8% reduction in adjusted O&M in 2020. Our continued infrastructure spending will guide depreciation and amortization expense $10 million to $20 million higher. We’re expecting COLI proceeds to be approximately $20 million. We’re forecasting an effective income tax rate of 12% to 14%, and lastly our year-end 2019 share count was 227 million shares. We remain confident in the opportunities in front of us. Our team will keep our eye on the ball of running the business while the strategic review and operations committee conducts its evaluation. With that, I will turn the call back over to Terry.
Terry Bassham:
Okay, we’ll open up the lines for questions.
Operator:
[Operator instructions] Our first question comes from Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners. Your line is open.
Shar Pourreza:
Hey, good morning guys.
Terry Bassham:
Good morning.
Shar Pourreza:
Just a couple questions here. With the strategic or operational review results, 1H 2020 seems like a very quick turnaround. Any incremental, Terry, you can provide as far as what you’re thinking? Obviously given this quick turnaround, I have to assume you have some sort of a sense on where things are heading. Just on the word strategic, quote-unquote, could that mean that Evergy looks at further consolidation, or is that kind of off the table? I have a follow-up.
Terry Bassham:
No, not to predetermine what the committee would come up with, I would say that the focus is on all things that could improve long-term shareholder value, so those could include several things. We would expect to review those. I think the idea was to do that quickly so it’ll be efficient, and to get those done in a way that makes sense for all parties. Looking forward to the work, looking forward to working with our two new directors on it, and we would look forward to get started quickly.
Shar Pourreza:
Got it, that’s helpful. Then just on the capex, it’s a big increase with a billion dollars for Missouri under PISA, also obviously a very big healthy O&M cut. Just curious, why would you not have pulled more spending forward in Kansas? I mean, just the rough math with $80 million O&M reduction, that should translate into half a billion dollars in annual capital opportunities without impacting retail rates, so why not spend more in Kansas with the O&M levers? I didn’t get a sense from the slides if the incremental capex, what the profile of it is, whether it’s front-end loaded or spread evenly. Just maybe give a sense there.
Terry Bassham:
Okay, on the first question, I would say obviously with the capacity from PISA, which we’ve talked about as early as second quarter call and again in the third quarter call, obviously that provides a focus from the State of Missouri on infrastructure spend, jobs, those kinds of things, so it makes more sense to focus on the recovery mechanism there. We have to continue to be cautious in Kansas because of the lag time between spend and recovery. That’s not to say we wouldn’t spend additional in Kansas as well, but we obviously want to be more measured and the immediate focus would be on PISA. In terms of what kind of projects, I’ll let Kevin give you some color on what kind of things we’re looking at from that perspective.
Kevin Bryant:
Yes Shar, it’s pretty balanced. The increase is across all five years. Obviously we have to be mindful of the rate cases we have in Missouri in the 2021 time frame. The types of projects, fairly evenly split on the grid mod area across distribution and transmission. We’ve got condition-based asset replacement that we’re focused on along with adding automation across our system, so it’s a pretty balanced increase across our grid and we plan to manage that through the five-year time frame.
Shar Pourreza:
Got it. Just lastly on the merger savings, you’ve almost hit your target there. Is there any opportunities, because you attained it relatively quickly.
Terry Bassham:
Yes, I think we believe that our focus from executing on the very clear process we went through from the merger connotation to ongoing process improvement, so we’ve continued to look for opportunities there and we think there is additional opportunity that will help not only drive those O&M costs down but create headroom for additional capex that we’ve talked about today.
Shar Pourreza:
Got it. Thanks, and congrats on Kirk Andrews - that’s a great add to your team.
Terry Bassham:
Thank you much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America. Your line is open.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey, good morning team. Congratulations on all the developments. Perhaps just to pick up where Shar left off, if I can follow up, these O&M costs contemplated here, how do you think about your earned ROE through the forecast period, and also how does this reconcile with earlier commitments in Kansas from the last transaction? I imagine to a large extent those have rolled off, but I just want to be very clear about that.
Terry Bassham:
Yes, let me take a shot at that and be sure I understood your question. We continue to expect to earn our allowed ROEs. I think one of the things that we’re trying to be clear about and proud of is that even though we had two regulatory orders that created a bit of a headwind last fall, we’ve been able to drive additional O&M savings to overcome that, so we continue to believe we’ll earn our allowed ROEs in our utilities as we planned originally. You kind of faded out in the back end of your question. What was the rest?
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Just about the Kansas commitments, if you can, just from the deal. To the extent to which there were certain involuntary reduction commitments at that time, I imagine implicit in this announcement is that you’re still in compliance with that as well and the cost savings, wherever they are to be found, are independent from any other commitments you face.
Terry Bassham:
Yes, we obviously have commitments in both states around our mergers, and everything we’ve discussed today is in the context of keeping our commitments to our customers, our regulators and our states, no doubt about it.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
To the extent to which you’ve created a strategic effort here and obviously announced cost cuts, have you vetted this with Kansas and Missouri in whatever fashion?
Terry Bassham:
Well, obviously we just made the announcement today, so we’ll be talking to all of our stakeholders going forward about what it means, what the process is, and keeping them informed. We have very good regulatory relationships and we would continue to work with them to be sure we answer any of their questions.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Excellent. Sorry, last question here, if I can. As you think about the cadence of capex involved here, how do you think about equity and balance sheet needs particularly given the share buyback cancellation? Obviously you have a certain projection. I just want to be very clear about this, about what your equity needs for the full five-year period are.
Tony Somma:
Good morning Julien, this is Tony. We don’t anticipate issuing equity to fund the capital plan that we announced today.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Excellent, perfect. Thank you for clarifying all that, and I’ll pass it on. Appreciate it.
Terry Bassham:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Steve Fleishman with Wolfe. Your line is open.
Steve Fleishman:
Yes, good morning. Just on the committee, the board committee that’s been formed, in the release it talks about among options, looking at strategic combinations. Could you maybe give a little bit of color on how that would work? Are you actually--is that an invite for people to present stuff, or are you going to go outward to people on that? How are you going to look at that aspect?
Terry Bassham:
Well, obviously the committee hasn’t even met yet, so from a process perspective we’re yet to work through that. But obviously with our time period in place, we’ll be putting together a plan to evaluate both of the paths that we’ve talked about. Don’t have a lot of details and wouldn’t want to get ahead of the committee in terms of specific process before they’ve even had their first meeting.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. Then the committee is made up two current board members and two new board members. What happens if there’s a 2-2 and they don’t necessarily agree? Is there a process for that?
Terry Bassham:
There is. There’s a process set up to make sure that we’re very transparent about any disagreement among the committee and ultimately what the board decides. Ultimately recommendations would go to the board and the board would make a decision, but to the extent there is a disagreement, we would want to be transparent about what the recommendations were, and that’s built into the agreement we have.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. Then just one technical question. The Sibley case and the appeal of that, could you give an update if there’s any timing or update on the Sibley case?
Terry Bassham:
No, it’s still early in that process. Unfortunately, appeals from the commission is a very slow, deliberate process, so it wouldn’t be in the near term.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. I actually have one other question, sorry. At a high level and ignoring 2020 but just long term, is it fair to say that redirecting more money to capex relative to the buyback is additive to your plan?
Terry Bassham:
Yes. Short term, obviously not buying back the shares in the next six months would affect near term earnings per share. Long term, we believe this is a better allocation of capital and would drive long-term shareholder value, no doubt.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay, thank you.
Terry Bassham:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates. Your line is open.
Paul Patterson:
Hey, good morning guys.
Terry Bassham:
Good morning.
Paul Patterson:
Just to get a better picture on the capex improvement, obviously you guys are aware of the arbitrage of the last question and the benefits of capex versus a buyback. I’m just trying to get a sense as to the substantial increase. What’s driven the revised outlook, if you follow me? What was sort of the trigger that got you guys to come up with so much of an increase in capex?
Terry Bassham:
Well, obviously as we started through the buyback program coming out of the merger, we have an over-equitized capital structure and we had a plan for driving EPS growth in the near term through the buyback while not over-spending or not spending additional capex that would drive either lag or increases in customers’ rates. But as we worked through the plan, and again we’re about 75% through that original buyback process, we looked at opportunities for long-term growth and as PISA kicked in and it became a lot more clear to us PISA as a tool was very helpful, we talked about again as early as our second quarter call about there being up to maybe a billion dollars of capacity there that we were evaluating, and we worked on specific projects that we could make as part of that. So we began to work on the transition from the buyback into additional capex spend - that would be grid modernization and types of projects that would reduce O&M, all focused on being more efficient and lower costs for our customers. That’s the high level version. Does that make sense?
Paul Patterson:
Yes, I think so. So just in terms of the O&M reduction that would be associated with the improved capex, can you give us any sort of rough quantification as to what that might be? How much savings in O&M are resulting from the capex deployment?
Tony Somma:
Morning Paul, this is Tony. We’ve given some drivers for near term for 2020, but we’re not going to go out farther than that until the committee finishes its work and its review. Obviously we’re focused on cost management and that will continue to be a focus of this team.
Terry Bassham:
Obviously in terms of O&M improvement, though, there are some things that would naturally happen from that kind of investment. I don’t know, Kevin, have you got any--?
Kevin Bryant:
Yes Paul, embedded in the 2020 drivers of that 5% to 8% reduction that Tony referenced, that’s order of magnitude of what we’d expect to see this next year and moving forward. Headcount is a big piece of it - we’ve talked about managing our headcount down through attrition, so doing it consistent with the merger commitments. We’re getting more efficient in that regard. We’re still seeing savings in our back office. We call them merger savings, but it’s in the supply chain area and benefits, insurance, all those normal corporate overheads, and then we continue to look for efficiencies at Wolf Creek. We’ve got pretty strong confidence. We had a strong year in 2019. We expect significant performance in 2020, and we’ll keep looking for opportunities moving forward.
Paul Patterson:
Yes, absolutely. I’m just wondering if on the capex side, if there was some sort of rule of thumb or some sort of sense--in other words, I guess what I’m saying is you guys have obviously executed quite well on the merger synergies and all the other things that you’re looking at. I’m just trying to get a sense as to when you’re looking at that kid of capex, when looking at the capex, how much of a reduction--if you guys have it. If you don’t, if it’s too early, that’s okay, but if there was any sort of rule of thumb, so to speak, if we’re putting this much capex in, this much cost might be coming out, kind of thing on an O&M basis. Is there anything like that?
Terry Bassham:
I don’t have a great rule of thumb for you, Paul. It all depends on where the capex is going. Our system is starting on at a fairly reliable place, so we expect to see savings but it’s hard to quantify.
Paul Patterson:
Okay, fair enough. Then just on the strategic review, is that pretty much all of the above, everything is on the table kind of thing, or--? These are sort of vague terms, if you know what I mean. I’m just trying to get, like--can you elaborate a little bit more on that, or--?
Terry Bassham:
Well, only to say that obviously everything would be on the table, but there’s obviously a focus that’s been discussed, which given the time frame, there will be a focus to start off with. If we begin to work and see other opportunities, I’m sure the committee would want to look into that, but there’s clearly a focus as we start the committee work.
Paul Patterson:
Okay, thanks so much, guys.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Charles Fishman with Morningstar. Your line is open.
Charles Fishman:
Thank you. Terry, I just want to make sure I heard this correctly. You will file rate cases in 2021 in all jurisdictions in Kansas and Missouri?
Terry Bassham:
No, we’re not filing rate cases until 2022, ’23 in the two jurisdictions.
Charles Fishman:
The two being--?
Terry Bassham:
Missouri and Kansas.
Charles Fishman:
I’m sorry, but the individual businesses. In Missouri, you’ve got really two--you’ll file both of those in 2022?
Terry Bassham:
Right.
Charles Fishman:
Okay, then I’m glad I asked that. I misheard that - okay. Then just as a follow-up to that, you obviously have PISA in Missouri, a positive. In Kansas, you did get treated unfairly, I think in my opinion, in Kansas late last year on Jeffrey with staff supportive of your position, the commission went their own way. What gives you the confidence going forward, especially with this bump in capex, that you’ll get treated a little more fairly in Kansas?
Terry Bassham:
Well again, we do have a good relationship both with the commission and with the staff, but the staff in particular, as you said, agreed with us on that particular ruling. That was not a typical rate capex investment inclusion in rates case, it was a unique situation where we had a lease that had been in place for a long time that was converting. It was a unique situation and we were disappointed that the commission didn’t agree with us and the staff, but I don’t think anything about that suggests to us that our typical capex investment in infrastructure that drives reliability and service to our customers would be viewed any differently in Kansas than it would in Missouri. Historically in our rate cases, we’ve seen that result.
Charles Fishman:
Okay, thank you. You’ve certainly made things interesting in Kansas and Missouri. Thanks.
Terry Bassham:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. I’m showing no further questions at this time. I’d like to turn the call back to Terry Bassham for any closing remarks.
Terry Bassham:
Thank you very much for dialing in, and obviously we’ll be talking to everyone on an ongoing basis, but we look forward to moving forward with our announcement today, so thank you. Have a good day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect. Everyone have a great day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the Third Quarter 2019 Evergy Incorporated Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. I would now like to hand the call over to your speaker today, Lori Wright. Thank you. And please go ahead, ma'am.
Lori Wright:
Thank you, Lauren. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Evergy's third quarter call. Thank you for joining us this morning. Today's discussion will include forward-looking information. Slide 2 and the disclosure in our SEC filings contain a list of some of the factors that could cause future results to differ materially from our expectations and include additional information on non-GAAP financial measures. We issued our third quarter 2019 earnings release and 10-Q after market close yesterday. These items are available along with today's webcast slides and supplemental financial information for the quarter on the main page of our website at evergyinc.com. On the call today we have Terry Bassham, President and Chief Executive Officer and Tony Somma, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Other members of management are with us and will be available during the question-and-answer portion of the call. As summarized on slide 3, Terry will recap the quarter and provide a business update. Tony will update you on the details of our latest financial results. With that, I'll hand the call to Terry.
Terry Bassham:
Thanks, Lori, and good morning, everybody. I will begin on Slide 5. So, last night we reported third quarter GAAP earnings of $1.56 per share compared to $1.32 per share earned in the third quarter of 2018. Adjusted earnings per share were $1.57 in third quarter 2019 compared to $1.38 per share in the same period a year ago. Third quarter results were driven by favorable weather, fewer shares outstanding and rate case outcomes, partially offset by higher depreciation. Year-to-date, GAAP earnings per share were $2.49 compared to $2.61 in the same period last year. Adjusted EPS were $2.55 this year compared to $2.36 a year ago, largely driven by significant cost reduction efforts and fewer shares outstanding, partially offset by unfavorable weather. It's important to recognize that within results year-to-date, we've been able to manage cost impacts of two unfavorable regulatory outcomes and still remain on pace for the year. Our ability to overcome these headwinds and deliver another solid quarter enables us to confirm our 2019 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.80 to $3. Consistent with our call in August, we're making good progress executing our strategic priorities and continue to be confident with our plan. Last night, we increased our dividend to an indicated annualized rate of $2.02 per share. This represents a 6.3% increase from our previous dividend rate and reflects the Board's confidence in our business plan as well as our commitment to deliver on it. Today, I'd like to provide two additional updates on key parts of our plan. First on merger savings. As of the end of the third quarter, our merger savings continue to track above our initial targets. As you recall, we've been targeting cumulative $110 million of annual merger savings for 2019, which equates to an incremental $80 million above the 2018 savings target. Our success in the merger savings front is a testament to our teams' solid execution. For example, we're realizing additional savings in supply chain and support service as we leverage the scale of our larger company. In the third quarter, we also retired over 7.5 million shares, dollar-cost averaging consistent with our plan. As of the end of September, we were roughly 73% complete with the share repurchase program, which we previously established to rebalance the company's capital structure and effectively deploy cash in connection with our merger announcement in July of 2017. Tony will further discuss our latest financial activity including share repurchases. Before I move on to slide 6, let me update you on a couple of other recent events. First, we spent the summer advertising our new Evergy brand to customers. We officially rebranded our operating utilities in October. It was exciting that the communities we serve now know us all as Evergy. There is an appendix slide that details the name changes for each of our utility subsidiaries. Lastly, our nuclear facility Wolf Creek is wrapping up its planned refueling outage. From the breaker opened in September, it marked Wolf Creek's second consecutive record breaker run. This is the first time in plant history to have back to back record breaker operating runs. During this most recent stretch, the unit ran for 491 straight days, the third longest cycle since operations began in the mid-1980s. I'm extremely proud of the team and their accomplishments. This is only achieved through a long-term vision that includes a keen focus on human performance and equipment reliability. Now moving on to Slide 6; I'll provide the latest on regulatory and legislative proceedings. In October, the Missouri PSC issued an Accounting Authority Order requiring Evergy Missouri West, previously known as GMO to defer revenues associated with its retired Sibley plant to a regulatory liability. This was contrary to pass regulatory precedent and settled law. We are extremely disappointed with the outcome of this case. From the beginning, we and the Commission staff opposed AAO request as a cherry picking of our 2018 rate case settlement and undermining the utility framework in Missouri. The Commission has denied our request for rehearing and now we expect to appeal the order. The annual impact of this order will be approximately $9 million or $0.03 a share. However, as I mentioned earlier, we are continuing to execute our plan and we'll work to offset the impacts of the order in the future. Now moving to Kansas; in September, the KCC denied our request which was supported by KCC staff to place into rates the 8% of Jeffrey Energy Center we negotiated and purchased upon our lease expiration earlier this year. We view this purchase and request as part of wrapping up a long-term position associated with this 8% of the plant, which delivered millions of dollars of value to customers over more than a decade. The Commission ruled the purchase was not prudent and denied our request. We recorded the year-to-date impact of this decision in our third quarter results, which includes the cost of operating the plant and the lease extension totaling around $9 million of operating expense or $0.03 of EPS. The ongoing annual impact of the Jeffrey order will be about $0.03 a share unless offset by off-system sales. Staying in Kansas, Senate Bill 69, which calls for a two part study of electric rates is moving along as planned. About a month ago, initial meetings kicked off with stakeholders and the vendor selected for part one of the study, which is focused on the effectiveness of rate-making practices and options to maintain competitive rates going forward. We expect for part one to be delivered in early January 2020 and the RFP finalist for part two, which is due in July 2020 was selected earlier this week. Moving now to Slide 7; let me update you on the outlook of our strategic priorities. As mentioned on our last call, we've been evaluating the flexibility in our capital deployment plans to ensure that our capital is directed to the greatest return opportunities and to identify additional investments that may be available. As we state the scenarios to further optimize our long-term spending plan primarily through Missouri Plant and Service Accounting or PISA, we identified the maximum of an estimated $1 billion cap opportunity within that framework. The first steps toward executing against that cap was announced on our second quarter call when we shared plans to shift $150 million of investment from Kansas to Missouri over the 2020 to 2022 timeframe. This shift in spending did not increase our previously announced five year CapEx spending target, but moved CapEx to the state which provides the best earning opportunity. During the third quarter, we continued our focus toward identifying opportunities within the piece of framework that would be incremental to our current spending plan. The process we used for that evaluation included three primary criteria. First, identify projects that qualify for PISA that can be executed prior to our expected rate case true-up period and benefit customers about lowering future cost are increasing reliability. Second, while operating within the allowed PISA rate caps, also consider the potential total impact on customers of the multi-year period spend. And lastly, find the right balance of additional infrastructure, investment, financial and credit support in long-term earnings growth. We are focused on delivering on our merger commitment to rebalance the holding company capital structure to deliver on our EPS targets and to enhance the long-term earnings profile of the company. Our potential incremental PISA opportunity is not an either or scenario with respect to the share repurchases. We plan to balance the two, continuing the share repurchase program and spending additional capital in Missouri. To that end, we've identified an additional $150 million of PISA investment on top of the $150 million we shifted from Kansas to Missouri. This infrastructure investment will add $150 million of additional CapEx , totaling $300 million increase in Missouri PISA investment embedded in our plan laid out in February of this year. For perspective, this $300 million would be added to a Missouri rate base, which was about $4.5 billion at the end of last year. In addition to this near-term PISA spend, we continue to work on our long-term plan through 2024, which we will be discussing on our year-end call. We studied a range of opportunities and are confident in our ability to execute on our buyback plan and additional PISA investment. While we see the opportunity for significant additional infrastructure investment in Missouri, it's unlikely however that we'll invest at the top end of the identified PISA cap given the need to deliver on our EPS targets, balance our credit metrics and the size of our next rate request. Nevertheless, we have high confidence in the incremental investment that we've identified so far and expect to provide guidance around additional incremental investment opportunities when we outline our 2020 earnings guidance and capital spend plans in February. Now before I turn things over to Tony, let me update you on our plan for achieving carbon reductions over the next 30 years. Looking at slide 8, since 2005, Evergy has added over 3,500 megawatts of renewables, while retiring more than 2,400 megawatts of fossil generation. The transition of our generation fleet has allowed us to reach almost 40% of carbon emission reductions since 2005. Today, we're looking further into the future and announce our new 2050 carbon reduction target of 80% from 2005 levels. The trajectory and timing of reaching our goal could be impacted by local and federal clean energy policies, but we continue to work with policymakers at all levels to ensure we can minimize our impact on the environment in a cost effective way. As we complete our next integrated resource plan, we'll be able to provide more details around our long-term energy plan and the path toward reaching our carbon reduction goals. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Tony.
Anthony Somma:
Thanks, Terry, and good morning, everyone. I'll start with results on Slide 10 of the presentation. Last night we reported third quarter 2019 GAAP earnings of $367 million or $1.56 per share compared to $355 million or $1.32 per share in the third quarter of 2018. The increase in earnings was primarily due to higher gross margin and lower O&M, partially offset by higher depreciation expense. Adjusted non-GAAP earnings were $370 million or $1.57 per share compared to $371 million or $1.38 per share in the same period a year ago. As shown in the chart on Slide 10, adjusted EPS were driven primarily by fewer shares outstanding, new retail rates, favorable weather and partially offset by higher depreciation and impacts from unfavorable regulatory outcomes in both the Jeffrey 8% and Sibley dockets. O&M net of merger-related costs were slightly higher which includes around $9 million of costs from the negative KCC order of Jeffrey lease and was partially offset by cost reduction efforts across our utilities. Depreciation expense was $22 million higher, primarily from new depreciation rates that are reflected in our retail prices and higher plant balances. For the quarter, residential sales were up 2% while commercial and industrial sales were flat. We had favorable weather for the quarter, which we estimate helped by roughly $0.03 compared to last year and about $0.09 when compared to normal. Overall customer count growth continued marking the 34th straight quarter of growth for our company. On Slide 11, I'll touch on year-to-date results. For the year, GAAP earnings were $606 million or $2.49 per share compared to $517 million or $2.61 per share for the same period last year. Year-to-date 2018 GAAP results do not include Evergy Metro, formerly KCP&L and Evergy Missouri West results prior to June of 2018, which is a primary driver of the earnings variance for the period. Adjusted earnings were $621 million or $2.55 per share compared to year-to-date 2018 adjusted earnings of $642 million or $2.36 per share. As detailed on the slide, primary drivers compared to last year include an $86 million reduction in O&M, which includes around $9 million of expense related to the Jeffrey 8% lease, new retail rates and fewer shares outstanding. Gross margin declined $37 million reflecting the impact of less favorable weather and depreciation increased around $75 million. Due largely to the weather swing, pro forma year-to-date residential and commercial sales were down 4.6% and 1.9% respectively. We estimate weather cost us $0.18 when compared to last year and was a benefit of about $0.11 when compared to normal. Pro forma industrial sales were down 80 basis points compared to the same period last year due primarily to a large customer in the chemical sector that saw decreased demand at their plant earlier this year. Moving on to Slide 12, let me touch on our latest financing activities. In August, Kansas Central, which was formerly Westar, issued $300 million of 30 year first mortgage bonds at 3.25% replacing $300 million maturity at Kansas South, formerly KG&E. In September, we issued $1.6 billion of long-term holding company debt through two tranches; $800 million of five year notes at 2.45% and $800 million of 10 year notes at 2.9%. The financing plan paid off our $1 billion term loan that expired in early September and allowed us to continue our share repurchase program. Since closing the merger, Evergy has returned nearly $3.3 billion of capital to our shareholders comprised of about $600 million in the form of dividends and $2.7 billion through share repurchases. We're now 73% complete on our targeted share repurchases. We have an open $500 million ASR that was entered into early September and will be closed out by the end of December. Recall with our regulatory stay-outs, it makes financial sense to return capital to our shareholders in the form of share repurchases, which helped increase EPS during the stay-out period until we can put capital work for us at the conclusion of the stay-out period in the form of infrastructure investment. The ultimate number and timing of our share repurchases depends on market factors and the financial outlook of the company. Now wrapping up on Slide 13; as Terry said, we've studied our capital allocation opportunities over the last few months and we're announcing another $150 million of PISA spend today and we expect more to come when we announce our year-end results in February of 2020. We remain committed to our share repurchase program and we'll continue to look to layer in incremental capital investment on top of it. I want to emphasize that our priority is to balance both continuing the share repurchase program and spending additional capital in Missouri. Leading up to our year-end call in February, we'll provide a more holistic view across all our jurisdictions to ensure that we are investing adequate amounts to ensure continued liability for our customers and support additional shareholder returns. As mentioned, we expect this review yield incremental spending opportunities. Increased infrastructure investment will enhance reliability and provide rate base growth to supplement the back-end of our EPS forecast period and long-term earnings outlook. The results so far this year are proving the merits of our merger and the business plan that we laid out. As Terry stated previously, despite the recent negative regulatory orders, which we think will cost us about $0.06 per share for the year as well as numerous storms and flooding from earlier this year, we reaffirm 2019 guidance and our 5% to 7% EPS CAGR from 2019 to 2023. We're pleased with our results and prospects for the future. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Terry.
Terry Bassham:
All right. With that, we will take questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Julien Dumoulin Smith with Bank of America. Your line is open.
Unidentified Analyst:
Hi, this is Darius [ph] on for Julian. I just wanted to briefly ask about your capital allocation in terms of the remaining repurchase and incremental PISA spend, I know you said there may be more on top of the 150 that you announced today. Can you just talk about your thought process there and the commitment toward completing the additional toward the $60 million goal of share repurchase?
Terry Bassham:
Yes. I think we said that in our prepared remarks. We've always had share repurchase as part of the central part of our plan over the time period, but we also see opportunity under PISA to make additional investments that we discussed today with the three particular criteria we talked about, but obviously we're also committed to our interim EPS goals, which stock buyback is part of. So we're committed to all those and we think we see a clear path toward delivering on those -- that plan.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay. And just to be clear, the incremental CapEx potentially would not require additional equity?
Terry Bassham:
Yes. It's what we were talking about when we said we didn't think we would be able to invest at the top end of that range because of just those factors, credit metrics, those kind of issues.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay, great. Thank you very much.
Anthony Somma:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Greg Gordon with Evercore. Your line is open.
Gregory Gordon:
Thanks. Good morning. Couple of questions for you guys. The first is on Sibley, you said that the impact of that decision is going to annualize at $9 million a year, is that correct? And can you talk us through how you've come up with that's the amount that you have to reserve under the ALL?
Anthony Somma:
That's correct, Greg. It's about $9 million bucks.
Gregory Gordon:
Can you walk us through how you came up with that number and that will be what you're booking going forward. Can you just talk us through how you came up with that number, it's obviously lower than what the consumer advocate opined you were saving when you shut down the plant?
Anthony Somma:
Yes. The $9 million represents the O&M cost for Sibley. And there is a note in our 10-Q states, we estimate that's what's probable that we'll have to be booked and we booked in accordance with accounting rules which is probable and that differs from what obviously the interveners think.
Gregory Gordon:
Right. And that will all gets dealt within the next rate case, right?
Anthony Somma:
Yes, that's correct.
Gregory Gordon:
Right. And what about the return portion of the plant, how has that being dealt with?
Anthony Somma:
So that is not being booked and that will be handled with in the next rate case.
Gregory Gordon:
Got you. Moving on to the next question, Terry, I apologize I was multi-tasking when you mentioned this. But can you talk through again how you're doing relative to the base case on synergies and overall cost cuts relative to the merger base case?
Terry Bassham:
Yes. We're over-performing. We've talked before about us being as much as maybe 20%, 25% above our current estimates and we continue to find additional synergy opportunities certainly last year or this year and next year with two of the big years. We continue to look for additional opportunities on the merger itself and look for additional O&M opportunities overall as we continue to work to offset the regulatory effects of these two orders.
Gregory Gordon:
Right. What was the second, the second one that contributed to the $0.06 total this year, sorry I missed that?
Terry Bassham:
Well, we've got both Jeffrey and Sibley.
Gregory Gordon:
Got you. Jeffrey.
Terry Bassham:
We were reporting on this morning, that's right.
Gregory Gordon:
Okay. So you're doing well enough on the overall cost profile of the business to overcome those and stay on track to hit your earnings targets?
Terry Bassham:
Both, currently and as we work for our future estimates, our future plans.
Gregory Gordon:
Got you. Okay, as regard -- with regard to the IRP, you talked about how you're going to give us a little bit more of a sense how you get to your 80% carbon reduction by 2050. It would seem not an insurmountable task, but a pretty significant lift given that you do have a lot of older coal plants [indiscernible] is obviously new, but most of your other plants are relatively old, but you did put emissions controls equipment recently on many of them. So when does that IRP going to come out and how do we think about what that means in terms of sort of post -- sort of early to mid to late 2020 capital spending?
Terry Bassham:
Yes. So our rhythm for an IRP planning process would be a spring reporting time period. But what I would tell you at a very high level is, we've retired almost all of our fossil generation, which is not where we have retired, I mean it's not compliant. And so, what we've got is either a new union like [indiscernible] or we have other units, as you mentioned, which have been retrofitted in some way or had expenses for making them compliant. And what I would say at a very high level you're going to see is our ability to work through the normal depreciable lives of those assets over this time period so that we've minimized if you will, the risk of recovery on the back end of those plants and can still hit the 80% reduction by the 2050 time period.
Gregory Gordon:
Okay. So there wouldn't be a presumed early retirement/credit cost recovery scenario here you would amortize down the remaining value of the pollution control equipment and then transition?
Terry Bassham:
That be the current plan, obviously laws can change, things can change to require differently, but that's the basis for that 80% we've talked about. Obviously with what we just experienced in Missouri, it's an important thing for us to be very careful about. And I think that drives in large -- a large part of what we were planning to talk about, but certainly helps support that conservative nature of that plan as we'll describe.
Gregory Gordon:
Okay. Thank you, guys. Take care.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners. Your line is open.
Shar Pourreza:
Good morning, guys. Just real quick on; just to follow-up on Greg's question on Sibley and the $9 million annualized. Terry, on your prepared remarks you talked about mitigation measures, it doesn't seem like it's a very large number to mitigate. But maybe you could just talk a little bit on sort of the drivers we should think about that you could use in the mitigation, i.e., is it on the merger savings, fuel, purchase power, on the O&M side? And then I'm curious like if you were to refile, when is the earliest you can refile just given the limits around the PISA legislation?
Terry Bassham:
Yes. Let me hit those one at a time. What we see is about $0.03 on Sibley and about $0.03 on Jeffrey that are kind of an ongoing numbers we're going to need to manage and we are going to manage them. Certainly as we continue to see merger opportunities, we think we have some help there. We also will see some operating efficiency through some of the CapEx that we're spending that we've talked about. But to be honest with you, we're going to need to be aggressive and we'll be aggressive on O&M expense. One of the things that we're going to go after was headcount, things like that. We always want to avoid a layoff, but we certainly can manage hiring practices and one of the side effects of something like the orders we've gotten is, we're going to have to be very careful about any hiring we do as we go forward. So that would be all of those O&M kinds of things that we look at every year, but are committed to our targets going forward and we're going to probably be a little more aggressive this year.
Shar Pourreza:
And then, just one question on the PISA and the incremental 150. It's obvious you highlighted that there is going to be incremental to that and you're still formulating your plan. But maybe you could just highlight as we think about sort of zero to 850 where we can kind of potentially land, especially given that you do have a little bit of a tight timeframe to find spending and try to make it before sort of that test period in the next sort of GRC here. So I'm kind of curious as we think about the top-end, the midpoint, kind of where you kind of see everything kind of shaking out. Especially given the tight timeframe that you guys have before the next rate case.
Terry Bassham:
Well, I don't really have a target for you. One of the reasons we gave you the additional 150 is that we thought it would be important to reflect what we're very comfortable with, which would be 300 on the PISA cap. And then we thought it was also important to reflect that at the top end, that's probably pretty tough from a metric perspective within, like you said, from an execution perspective. So it is in between there somewhere, but really would be unfair for me to target a shot at a number of while we're finishing our work. We want to be cautious about not giving guidance that later turns out to be off. We want to be very specific about that and we've got some additional work to do before our final presentation at the end of the year.
Shar Pourreza:
Got it. But -- so I guess as you guys are formulating your plan, we shouldn't have any kind of direct lead with some of the negative impacts, I guess from a regulatory construct standpoint, we're seeing in Missouri versus how much capital you actually want to deploy in Missouri? So I guess -- I guess I'm asking is...
Terry Bassham:
Yes. No, what I would tell you is it's extremely disappointing. What happened in the Sibley order given precedent and what is pretty clear, we think regulatory law on the issue, but we'll manage around it. What's probably affected a little bit more as a result of that is how we deal with these plant shutdowns going forward because of what happened as opposed to necessarily concerns around current investment if that makes sense.
Shar Pourreza:
No, it does, it does. That's helpful. Thanks guys. I'll jump back.
Terry Bassham:
You bet.
Operator:
Thank you. Your next question comes from Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research. Your line is open.
Steve Fleishman:
Yes, hi. Good morning. So I guess I think I understand the messaging is that you're kind of committed to completing your buyback, balancing that with the additional capital opportunities, so I thought that was pretty clear. Maybe just, you did I guess change a little wording on the buyback in terms of being kind of opportunistic share repurchases were so far I think you've been mainly kind of just doing it almost like dollar-cost averaging. Is that -- was that to suggest anything or is that just statement, the obvious?
Terry Bassham:
No. Yes, that's I think we're always trying to be optimistic -- opportunistic based on pricing and other opportunities, but that was not intended to change the color on what we've been doing, executing on the plan now for over a year.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay, great. And then the other, I think you also mentioned you're focused on meeting your interim targets in the Q&A. So I know the group 5% to 7% growth was a little bit weighted more toward the front end than the back end. Is that still -- is that what you meant there?
Terry Bassham:
Yes.
Steve Fleishman:
Great. And then -- I think that was it. Great, thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Michael Lapides:
Thanks for taking my questions and for hosting the call. These may be more Tony-oriented because they're a little bit of housekeeping. I want to make sure I understand something. Can you -- I've read it in the Q, the pre-tax amounts taken this quarter, so third quarter for both Jeffrey and Sibley and then whether that should be backed out of future periods or whether -- like I'm trying to think about what actually happened in this quarter pre-tax versus what you're kind of guiding to what will be the run rate for future periods?
Anthony Somma:
Okay. So let's see if I can handle this. I think Sibley through the quarter was roughly $7 million, $8 million pre-tax and that will continue. Jeffrey was a little more complicated as we had leased cost that was written off and that leased cost will not continue. I think the total Jeffrey costs were around $9 million for the quarter and that leased cost was about $4.5 million, $4.7 million something like that. So Jeffrey ongoing will hurt us probably to the tune of $7 million or so.
Michael Lapides:
Okay. And so, I want to make sure I think about this. When I look at fourth quarter 2019, are you saying that there is the Sibley $7.5 million will be a headwind to fourth quarter of 2019 O&M just like it was for third quarter 2019 O&M?
Anthony Somma:
No. Sibley is a deferral revenues, Jeffrey is O&M. And as Terry said, we're going to look at -- we're looking at ways to offset that.
Michael Lapides:
Okay. But the Sibley deferral will -- meaning it will -- when I do the bridge year-over-year fourth quarter 2018 to fourth quarter 2019, it will also be a $7.5 million deferral in the fourth quarter 2019. So the annualized amount would be closer to $30 million. Am I thinking about that right?
Anthony Somma:
No. The annual number is closer to $7.5 million, $8 million not $30 million. We just had to do a catch-up in this quarter because we had part of it deferred in 2018.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. So you've recognized the annualized amount in this quarter. So in next year, I'll back it out of this quarter, but I'll smooth it out for the other quarters?
Anthony Somma:
So, we recognized on Sibley all of this year-to-date through the third quarter. And I believe there was a piece of it that went back into 2018 and we recognized that. Ongoing, the Sibley O&M will be probably about $8.5 million, $8 million or so going forward, the deferral of the revenue annually.
Michael Lapides:
Well, I thought Sibley was an O&M and Jeffrey was deferral of revenue?
Anthony Somma:
Other way around.
Michael Lapides:
Okay, got it. Fine. Okay, very cool. I'll follow-up offline. Just one other thing totally unrelated to this. Terry, given the order at Missouri, given the docket open in for the preceding the legislature mandated in Kansas, given the order out of Kansas, is there a thought that maybe this isn't the right time to do any increases in any capital spend at all, use the capital entirely for the balance sheet and wait till kind of the jurisdictions turn a little bit before starting to invest incremental capital there in either one?
Terry Bassham:
Well, I think what we've said is it's a balance. We have said that the entire strategy around the merger and the time period for our stay-out where we harvest the synergies from the merger and we continue to become more efficient that we are not increasing cost to our customers. And our pace of growth is a little less than maybe it would be otherwise because at the end of this time period, we're trying to address the fact that our current rates are little lower the national average because of a 10-year spend by both companies. So, it certainly fits with the theory of our merger, which is we want to use this time to continue to strengthen and be prepared, but at the same time, we do want to continue to modernize our grid and continue to be in a position to provide high reliability at all times. And so, we will continue to spend. And PISA, which is a little different because PISA provides a very clear statutory process for spending infrastructure in Missouri that says they want additional and we want to spend additional in Missouri with a mechanism to do that in a better way than historically has been available. So there is a balance there, but certainly one of the whole strategies around the merger was to provide a period here of rate relief for customers as we harvest the benefits of the synergies.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Thank you, Terry. And Tony one follow up, just want to make sure. So versus normal weather for the third quarter was $0.09 better, but for the year-to-date if I use the consolidated company for the year-to-date was significantly worse versus normal?
Anthony Somma:
No. It was worse versus last year. Last year was better weather for us through the first nine months.
Michael Lapides:
Right. But versus normal if I were to think about a consolidated company year-over-year, quarter was $0.09 better versus normal, but the year-to-date, do you have that number?
Anthony Somma:
So weather cost this year-to-date, $0.18 compared to last year was a benefit of about $0.11 compared to normal.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. On a year-to-date and with most of that coming in the third quarter. Okay. Very cool, guys. See you at EEI. And thank you for the help today.
Terry Bassham:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Ali Agha with SunTrust. Your line is open.
Ali Agha:
Thank you. And I apologize, I was jumping between calls. When you all initiated the 5% to 7% growth rate guidance for 2019 through 2023, I recall at that time you had also given us an update on your previous guidance which was 2016 through 2021 and I think the message was you were trending in the 6% to 7% kind of the lower half of that growth rate. Is that still the case as we sit here today?
Terry Bassham:
Yes. That was our message, it's a little front-end loaded, but at the beginning of the year, we had reported that we're trending in the 6% to 7% versus the top-end of that original range.
Ali Agha:
And secondly, Terry, as you mentioned, you are still forming up the full amount of incremental CapEx you could spend $150 million, obviously you've announced right now. As you look at this future growth rate, the 5% to 7%, how much of that is predicated on your ability to spend that $850 million, which is I think the maximum you could spend? And let's say timing or otherwise, you don't get there, how does that impact that 5% to 7% growth rate for you guys?
Terry Bassham:
Well, again, the $150 million that we announced earlier was not a total increase to the overall CapEx , so that wouldn't affect it. But the additional $150 million is an addition to what we've provided previously and would provide some additional opportunity from a growth rate perspective, but it is a small amount compared to the overall rate base of the company. So that's why we continue to work on it. But again, the connectivity to what we're talking about is how it would affect and when it would affect that growth rate. And remember that we were talking in the shorter piece of term currently, we'll be updating you on our full long-term plan through 2024 in the spring, which will also have additional capital dollars throughout the territory for this potential.
Ali Agha:
Yes. So just to clarify. That's what I was talking about, not the original $150 million. I think in the last call you had mentioned that the PISA limits potentially could result in about $850 million of incremental CapEx excluding the $150 million that's a transfer. And I guess my question was if you end up for a variety of reasons not planning to spend or increase overall spending to $850 million, $150 million you've done, so $700 million theoretically to go, let's say you don't do that extra $700 million, what does that mean as far as that 5% to 7% growth target you've laid out for us?
Terry Bassham:
It would mean we wouldn't have anything additive from a PISA perspective to that amount. It wouldn't be a reduction to that amount. And again, we're talking only about Missouri PISA as opposed to longer term other investments maybe in Kansas as well. So you are asking would it reduce the overall path we've already given, the answer is no, this is all incremental possibility.
Ali Agha:
Right. So I guess -- I guess what I'm asking is if not for higher CapEx, how else do you get your growth rate up to the targets?
Terry Bassham:
Above what we've already provided? We've provided the -- so maybe I'm not understanding, I apologize. But we've already provided the numbers that reflect the 5% to 7% we talked about and we're looking for additional opportunity within that range. So
Ali Agha:
Okay, I mean -- I guess, I'll keep it simple. So based on the CapEx you've provided us and you've given us long-term CapEx which equates to about I think the 3% to 4% rate base growth from the original numbers that you laid out for us going out 2023. That CapEx and that plan with the 3% to 4% rate base growth you believe still translates into a 5% to 7% EPS growth rate over that time period. Was that the message?
Terry Bassham:
Over the time period, yes.
Ali Agha:
Okay. And I guess my question was, if rate base growth is 4%, what's driving the overall growth to be 5% to 7%?
Terry Bassham:
It was additional O&M savings that were driving through the merger synergies. That's kind of our EPS growth as well as the stock buyback and the other pieces that we've laid out both in our short-term and long-term plan. And then what we talked about is that was the interim path for earnings growth in the front-end of the plan and we would look forward and be able to talk to you about opportunities for additional CapEx growth on the back-end of the plan, some of which we hope to give you on the end of year call.
Ali Agha:
I got that. Okay, thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Andrew Levi with ExodusPoint. Your line is open.
Andrew Levi:
I just want to make sure I understand what you're saying as far as the stock buyback versus CapEx . So if I'm not mistaken, originally when you decided to do the stock buyback, stock was about $54 and you had budgeted to buy back 60 million shares at that point. Obviously, which is a good thing, the stock has gone up, you've been fairly aggressive in buying back stock. But to buyback the entire 60 million shares will cost you a little over $500 million more than you had budgeted, at least I think you budgeted. And that would get you -- get to the number that you were going to be at as far as what you may have budgeted that would be about $51 million -- 51 million shares, I'm sorry. So could you just kind of talk about the CapEx versus the stock buyback and that $500 million delta and how you financed out or how you deal with that relative to the incremental CapEx ? And then I have a follow up.
Terry Bassham:
Well, if I understand what you're asking, how do we look at the fact that our stock buyback is more expensive given current pricing than originally anticipated and it's a balance. Obviously, I think we've talked about our ability to finance the actual buyback itself and it is more expensive. But on a relative basis, in terms of meeting both our near-term and long-term earnings growth and our ability to spend capital over the long-term, we balance that from an overall perspective to allow shareholders to see a smoother EPS growth during this period of freeze through our regulatory processes. It allows us to return dollars to shareholders without raising cost to our customers in that near-term. And we're driving savings through the merger to help support that along the way as well as what I just mentioned in terms of our look at O&M for the upcoming year because of what's happened in Jeffrey. And I think our plan has provided enough flexibility to manage both the increase in the stock prices and headwinds we've seen to the regulatory process. It allowed us to stay on plan thus far and we think we're -- we'll stay on plan moving going forward.
Andrew Levi:
But Terry, I'm sorry to interrupt you, but that's not my question. My question is fairly simple and I had discussed this with Tony at a conference recently. So basically the stock buybacks is going to cost you if you finish it, and I don't know, maybe you're not going to finish it. That's really what I'm trying to get at is that it's going to cost you over $500 million to finish it, to go to the full 60, OK. At the same time you're saying you're going to spend more CapEx . But looking at your kind of metrics and your cash flows, are you able to do the incremental $500 million of stock buyback and you've got this $150 million, so an incremental $850 million of CapEx . So $1.350 billion of incremental cash that you need to kind of do everything. Is that possible or is that or -- I mean that's why I just don't understand?
Terry Bassham:
So, I said in my initial remarks that we are comfortable with completing the stock buyback in $300 million, only $150 of which is incremental so far. There is not an additional $850 million. $300 would be relative to the $1 billion original. And in my prepared comments I said, we don't expect to be able to execute at the top-end of that remaining $850 million range or just the things that you mentioned. So we are comfortable what we've disclosed today in that regard, but not on the top-end of that range you're talking about.
Andrew Levi:
Okay, that's fair. That's what I wanted to get at because I thought there was a little bit of confusion that you were able to do both and it's just the numbers didn't add up. And then I have one more question just relating to Sibley and I appreciate you answering the other question clearly. So I guess you're complying with the order, but I guess what type of -- how can I say this, what part of the order you're complying with I guess because the order says that all units and common plan and all revenues need to be kind of return to deferred I should say. So what part of the order you're complying with?
Terry Bassham:
I'm going to let Tony finish this answer, but I'll be clear that we're complying with all parts of the order, to start with. You take that kind of order and then you have accounting adjustments that would result from that and that's what we reported out today. If you have a more detailed accounting question, I'll let Tony or Lori answer it. From managing the business perspective what we've said is we have shown currently and we plan in the future to be able to offset kind of the ongoing drag, which would be the three steps we've talked about. Does that make sense?
Andrew Levi:
Yes, it does. And are you deferring the return as well?
Anthony Somma:
This is Tony. No, we're not deferring the return. We are deferring what we think is probable, which is really the O&M of the plant.
Andrew Levi:
Didn't the order say that you have to defer return?
Anthony Somma:
No. The order actually said that we would make that determination based upon the FERC and GAAP rules of accounting and that we would revisit it at the future rate case and that their intent was not to harm the company. That was what the order said.
Andrew Levi:
Okay. So you're not deferring the return. And is there a hearing that you need to go through because -- so this is what -- because I had thought that you determine the amount that's what the Commission had ordered you to do? And then do they review what you've decided to defer or not?
Anthony Somma:
In the rate case. What they said in the order is they would not have a follow up hearing of some sort to review what we defer, we should defer according to GAAP accounting and then we would have a hearing in the next rate case where they would look at everything.
Andrew Levi:
Okay. And again, just to be clear, the order did not say that you had to defer the return?
Anthony Somma:
It did not say specifically for GAAP purposes.
Andrew Levi:
Okay. Got it. Okay. Thank you very much. I'll see you guys in a couple of days. I'll buy you a drink. How's that? Thank you.
Anthony Somma:
You bet.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates. Your line is open.
Paul Patterson:
Good morning. So just to go over Greg's and I guess Ali's question as well, and I think you guys have clarified a lot of it. Currently the numbers around $8.5 million on an annual run rate that the Sibley AAO accounting authority is, that's correct, right?
Terry Bassham:
Correct.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. And then on Page 34 of the 10-Q you mentioned that there is another $15 million that might be at risk on an annual basis above that number if I read that correctly. What does that represent?
Terry Bassham:
That represent the return on.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. And then in the hearing request that you guys made, you guys referred to being unjust and unreasonable because of a $30 million to $39 million reduction in earnings that was associated with I guess with the complainant's estimate was, if I understood the rehearing order correctly. What's the difference between the $24 million if I was to add roughly speaking $8.5 million with the $15 million and the $30 million to $39 million, what's the delta between those two things, do you know?
Terry Bassham:
Well, the intervenors have different numbers than what we have and that's maybe part of the difference there. We have a different rate base number than what they have and all that's going to have to get sorted out in the next rate case.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. And then, I think Commissioner Haul [ph] had a concurrence and he talked a lot about securitization and I also think during sort of the process with the discussion at the -- during the discussions regarding the order that the commissioners themselves discussed the issue of securitization as a way of sort of dealing with this issue in their opinion that would allow you guys the ability to get your plant back, get the cash back, deal with the return issue and everything else and deal with this issue of aging plants and sort of where they spoke favorably about it, if you follow what I'm saying. And I was wondering how securitization, A, might in theory impact this Sibley situation and specifically if it does? And just in general, what you guys think about securitization as a means of dealing with other coal plant retirements or other plant retirements that might be coming up in a way of sort of dealing with this issue? Do you follow what I'm saying from a policy perspective?
Terry Bassham:
Yes. I mean, I think we shouldn't expect the discussion around possible securitization sometime in the future to have any impact on the Sibley order. So that's first. In terms of what do we think of about securitization, it's like everything else. I mean what does it mean in terms of the detail that it would imply. I think some of the things we've seen around securitization are not acceptable because they don't provide full recovery for shareholders. And so, we're not in favor a lot of the things we've heard. Now, I would say this was a concurring opinion by one commissioner and some other folks made comment, but there wasn't any, in my view and I was in the room, there was not in my view any policy discussion by the Commission as a whole. And in the end that would really be legislative in some way as opposed to I think a commission order of some sort in either state.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. I appreciate that. What I meant with respect to the Sibley question would be if Sibley were to be securitized, just hypothetically speaking, how would that change the impact, this $8.5 million that's what you're currently deferring and I guess the earnings impact is about $0.03. How would securitization impact the Sibley plant have been securitized as opposed to this deferral thing. If you guys have a rough idea, I know this is asking you right on a call, so I apologize, but do you guys have an idea about how that would impact directionally the income impact to you guys would have been a positive step at it, a negative or a neutral compared to how the Sibley situation is working out for you now with your current deferral?
Terry Bassham:
So first of all, let me again be clear that we believe this order and any impact that we've suffered is contrary to law and precedent of any sort across the country. So it shouldn't be different because it shouldn't have happened in our view. Now if that became the law of the land and there is a securitization discussion to address it, it would all depend on what the structure of the securitization law is. So I don't mean to be flippant about it, but some recovery is better than none, but I don't want to leave this call with anybody misunderstanding we think this order was wrong.
Paul Patterson:
Okay.
Terry Bassham:
And that we're hopeful that on appeal we get a finding to that degree and it was -- violates our regulatory compact to be honest. And so, securitization would be better than nothing, but what ultimately securitization could provide will depend on the nature of the legislation related to it.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. I don't want to belabor the issue anymore. Just finally on the merger savings that you guys are doing very well it looks like. How much of that is sustainable. I mean is all the sustainable or is there any element of it that you're saving that you may not be able to -- do you follow what I'm saying? In other words, is this sort of the run rate we should think about that you guys have accomplished here or is there anything unusual about sort of the savings that wouldn't necessarily be repeating?
Terry Bassham:
No. The numbers that we've provided are all sustainable savings that build over time and stay consistent. If there is one-time cost or events, we've excluded those from that discussion and we would expect to continue to maintain the level of cost created by the savings that we've [indiscernible].
Paul Patterson:
Okay. Thanks so much guys.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Kevin [ph] with Citadel. Your line is open.
Unidentified Analyst:
Just wanted to make sure I heard you right on the O&M savings. Sid you say that they were running 20% to 25% above what you had originally forecast over the time period?
Terry Bassham:
Yes. That's what they've -- I think that's what we talked in the last quarter as well.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay, that's helpful. And then the Jeffrey's is a $9 million pre-tax hit going forward and the Sibley is a $9 million pre-tax hit going forward, those are the two incremental ongoing items?
Terry Bassham:
So Jeffery, the $7 million or $8 million and Sibley is around $8 million, $9 million or so.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay. And just in terms of the Sibley process, you guys are going to file in the courts for rehearing I guess or whatever you'd call, is that the next step for you?
Terry Bassham:
Yes. We filed a motion for rehearing which is required at the Commission before we can appeal and we would then start the appellate process.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay. And in terms of -- it's the company's position if the interveners don't agree with the level of your reserve that they are basically -- their hands are tied until the rate case, that's the venue that they can or do you think that they have the option to come back to the Commission?
Terry Bassham:
Well, I wouldn't tell you that the interveners couldn't file something if they wanted to, but in the end, we're collecting these dollars in accounting order. And the real intention is to true-up the accounting order, amounts we've collected or accounted for in the next rate case. So I think that's the likely place they would oppose whatever we concluded was the right amount.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay. And just the last thing for me is when we're trying to project how much incremental CapEx you could possibly do in Missouri, so we assume you complete the buyback. What's the controlling metric that we should be looking at. Is it like consolidated equity ratio or is FFO to debt or what is it that ultimately determines how much CapEx you can do beyond the buyback?
Anthony Somma:
So, this is Tony. As we said earlier, it's kind of a combination of factors. The overall rate impact on the customers from a credit metric we would look at FFO to debt and those sort of things.
Unidentified Analyst:
And is there an FFO to debt target that you guys have to kind of meet?
Anthony Somma:
It depends whether it's at the utility or the holding company, they're different. I think utility is probably mid-teens, upper-mid-teens, holding companies like 14%, 15% something like that.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay, that's very helpful. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. And this concludes today's question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the conference back to Terry Bassham for any closing remarks.
Terry Bassham:
All right. Well, thank you everybody. I appreciate you joining the call. Thanks for your questions. And obviously, many of you we will see next week at EEI. So have a good one. Thank you.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Q2 2019 Evergy Inc. Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. I would like to turn the call over to Lori Wright, you may begin.
Lori Wright:
Thank you, Michael. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to o Evergy's second quarter call. Thank you for joining us this morning. Today's discussion will include forward-looking information. Slide 2 and the disclosure in our SEC filings containing list of some of the factors that could cause future results to differ materially from our expectations, and includes additional information on non-GAAP financial measures. We issued our second quarter 2019 earnings release and 10-Q after market close yesterday. These items are available along with today's webcast slides and supplemental financial information for the quarter on the main page of our website at evergyinc.com. On the call today, we have Terry Bassham, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Tony Somma, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Other members of management are with us and will be available during the question-and-answer portion of the call. As summarized on Slide 3, Terry will recap the quarter and provide a business update. Tony will update you on the details of our latest financial results. With that, I'll hand the call to Terry.
Terry Bassham:
Thanks, Lori, and good morning, everybody. I'll begin my comments on Slide 5. So, that's not, we reported second quarter GAAP earnings of $0.57 per share, compared to $0.56 per share earned in the second quarter of 2018. Adjusted earnings per share were $0.58 in second quarter of 2019, compared to adjusted $0.67 per share in the same period a year ago. On a period-over-period basis, these results were driven by a large unfavorable weather swing offset by cost reduction efforts, rate case outcomes and changes in shares outstanding. Year-to-date, GAAP earnings per share were $0.96 compared to a $1 in the same period last year. Adjusted EPS were $1 this year, compared to $1.0 a year ago, largely driven by the same items I just mentioned. I'm pleased with how our team is executed our plan and the corresponding results delivered midway through this year. This has allowed us to stay on pace with our plan and reaffirm our 2019 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.80 to $3. In June, we celebrated the inaugural year of Evergy. This provided a natural time for us to reflect on a couple of our core objectives, merger savings and returning capital to our shareholders. First, on merger savings, during integration planning, we identified cumulative net savings of more than $550 million through 2023. We're on target for our 2019 year in goal of $110 million in annual net merger savings. We are making the most of our increased scale and buying power as a larger company. We become more efficient by leveraging both companies' operating experiences and implementing best-in-class techniques. We continue to deliver on our commitment of no involuntary layoffs as a result with merger and instead capitalizing on costs reductions through attrition as well to retire or leave the company. To put things in context, when we shook hands on the merger, there were over 6,300 budgeted positions between KCP&L, Westar and Wolf Creek. Today Evergy and Wolf Creek combined have around 5,500 employees. Earlier this year, we kicked-off a large IT system consolidation project that will help us achieve additional back-office savings. Fortunately, both companies use the same platform, so while still a tall task to combined legacy systems, we are aligned on vendors. We're also applying many of these same techniques at Wolf Creek, our nuclear facility. Wolf Creek has their own nuclear operating company and has operated as a standalone entity. Now with Evergy owns 94% of the facility, we're consolidating many of the support functions like HR, IT, supply chain, finance and accounting and are integrating these into our Evergy operations. This also allows us to take advantage of natural attrition at the nuclear facility as well. Again for context, current head count at Wolf Creek is about 200 positions lower today as compared to when we shook hands in the merger. These are just a few examples of the items that are allowing us to meet our targets. Our team continues to look for incremental savings opportunities, to provide additional benefits to both our customers and our shareholders. Now turning to our focus on returning capital to shareholders. Through Evergy's first year, we've returned almost $2.7 billion of capital comprised of about $500 million in the form of dividends and $2.2 billion through share repurchases. As of the end of June, we had completed just over 60% of our targeted share repurchased program. We're still focused on a $1 cost average strategy and we're expecting to complete the repurchases of mid-2020. Now moving to Slide 6; I'll give you the latest on our regulatory and legislative proceedings. You may recall, Kansas Senate Bill 69 which call for a two-part study of electric rates was passed and signed into law earlier this year. The Bill required a seven-member of Legislative Coordinating Council made up of five Republicans and two Democrats to reach consensus on a third-party performance study. Legislative Council has selected a consultant to conduct the first part of the study, which will focus on the effectiveness of Kansas rate making practices, as well as options to maintain reasonably competitive rates, while providing the best combination of price, quality and service. Part one of the study is to be completed by early January. Council is now working through a separate RFP, specifically for the second half of the study, which ultimately will be due by next summer. Part two will focus on the rate impact of energy matters like electric vehicle charging, microgrids, cyber and physical security. We're pleased that the study is moving forward and on track. From the beginning, we've been on record a stating, we believe the results of a third-party study will yield very similar results to our rate study and the separate Kansas corporations staff study that were both presented to the legislature during the 2019 session. Additionally, we continue to low our customer bills in Kansas by passing on to customers, we agreed upon merger credits. We also have our Kansas base rate moratorium, which will help keep bills and check. We still believe the creation of Evergy was an excellent solution for customers and rate competitive. With that said, we'll continue to monitor activity in Kansas and work with all parties to fund energy solutions that move Kansas forward and further increased the competitiveness of our rates. Now switching the Missouri and the Sibley Complaint Docket. In June, the Missouri Public Service Commission staff filed rebuttal testimony, which marked the first public record of their opinion on this man. Much of the staff testimony is aligned with arguments we've made from the beginning and accounting authority order does not make sense, because the retirement of Sibley is not an extraordinary event. The hearings for the stock, it started yesterday and are slated to be completed by the end of the week. Schedule calls for [indiscernible] over the next few weeks and then we'll wait for a commission order, which we expect to be sometime in October. Moving to Slide 7; to wrap up before I turn things over to Tony. The foundation of our near-term plan is unchanged and our execution thus far, has allowed us to reaffirm us to reaffirm our 2019 earnings guidance. It also provides us with confidence in our expectations of compounded annual EPS growth, up 5% to 7% through 2023, using the midpoint of our 2019 guidance as a base, dividend growth commensurate with EPS growth. We believe this is an attractive shareholder return profile with limited regulatory risk, given our commitment to no rate reviews over the next few years. The tenure treasury rate below 2%, we believe this positions us favorably as compared to the companies facing rate reviews in the next several years. As we mentioned in our first quarter call, we're focused on preserving flexibility or keeping customer bills low, delivering a safe, reliable product and targeting competitive shareholder returns. We are working to further optimize our long-term spending plan, which includes shifting some of the spending between jurisdictions. This allows us to target jurisdictions that have less lag and provide higher incentive for infrastructure investment. Although, we've not completed our work, our team has identified about $150 million of CapEx that we will look to shift from Kansas to Missouri through the 2022 time frame. To be clear this preliminary number maintains our current $6 billion CapEx projects -- projections, but reallocate some portion from one jurisdiction to another. This reflects our plan to allocate capital to its highest and best use. We approach the second half of the year, we continue to look for incremental opportunities over the next few years. Lastly, let me mention one important thing on the topic of Environmental, social and governance or ESG. We'll be updating our EEI, ESG template soon to include 2018 data. This will be the first time, our template will include the consolidated Evergy data whereas previously it was reported separately by our KCP&L and Westar utility. We also be following our 2018 sustainability report, where you can find details on our focus areas such as reducing our impact on the environment, diversity inclusion and growing philanthropy efforts and to help our communities move forward. Both reports will be located in the sustainability section of our Investor website in the coming months. Now with that, I'll turn the call over to Tony.
Anthony Somma:
Thanks, Terry, and good morning, everyone. I'll start with the results on Slide 9 of the presentation. Last night, we reported second quarter 2019 GAAP earnings of $140 million or $0.57 per share, compared to $102 million or $0.56 per share in Q2 of 2018. The increase in earnings is primarily due to the inclusion of KCP&L's and GMOs results for second quarter in 2019 compared to only a partial period of Evergy's second quarter 2018 results, due to the early June closing of the merger last year. Adjusted non-GAAP earnings were $140 million or $0.58 per share, compared to $179 million or $0.67 per share in the same period a year ago. As detailed on the slide, adjusted EPS was driven primarily by less favorable weather and higher depreciation expense, partially offset by the impact of new retail rates, lower O&M and accretion from fewer shares outstanding. Gross margins were down $75 million due primarily to lower sales, because of cooler weather offset by new retail rates, net of the 2018 provision for rate refund reflecting the lower corporate tax rate. O&M, net of merger related costs was a healthy $52 million lower, driven by cost reduction efforts across our utilities while depreciation expense was $23 million higher, primarily from new depreciation rates that are reflected in our retail prices and higher plant balances. For the quarter, pro forma residential commercial sales were down 21% and 7% respectively, reflecting a cooler and weather spring. During the second quarter of last year, we experienced significantly favorable weather and this quarter was cooler than normal, which costs us a whopping $0.25 when compared to last year and about $0.04 when compared to normal. Pro forma industrial sales were up just under 1% compared to the same period last year. Now on Slide 10; I'll touch base on year-to-date results. For the year GAAP earnings were $239 million or $0.96 per share, compared to $162 million or $1 per share for the same period last year. Again, GAAP not including KCP&L and GMO results prior to June of 2018 is a primary driver of the earnings variance. Adjusted earnings were $251 million or $1.01 per share compared to a year-to-date 2018 adjusted earnings of $271 million or $1 per share. As you can see on the slide primary drivers compared to last year include unfavorable weather and higher depreciation expense offset by new retail rates, O&M reductions and accretion from fewer shares outstanding. For the year gross margins were down $55 million, O&M was $84 million lower, and depreciation is around $52 million higher. Like second quarter sales and due largely to the weather swing, pro forma year-to-date residential commercial sales were down about 8.7% and 3% respectively. We estimate weather cost us $0.21 when compared to last year, and it was probably a benefit of a $0.01 or $0.02 when compared to normal. Pro forma industrial sales were down 1.4% compared to the same period last year, driven primarily by a large customer and the chemical sector that saw decreased demand at their plants earlier this year. Now turning to the economy; unemployment rate in our service area remains 30 basis points to 40 basis points below the national average, signaling a steady economy in the areas we serve. In June, the USDA announced the selection of Kansas City for the home offices of its Economic Research Service and National Institute of Food and Agriculture. They look to ramp up operations this fall will bring about 600 new jobs to the area. This site selection reinforces the Kansas City region as a hub for all things agriculture culture and answer the significant concentration of the animal health industry. Additionally, you may have seen in the news, where our company is looking at the potential looking a large data center in our service territory in Missouri. Over the years, we worked hard to put in place the right economic development tariffs, coupled with access to the abundant, affordable wind resources found in our backyard. We believe we often attractive value proposition when it comes to clean affordable energy coupled with a modest cost of living standard. Moving on to Slide 11; let me touch on our latest financing activities. In June, we had $300 million of first mortgage bonds that matured. We issued commercial paper to pay off those bonds we'd like to reissue that $300 million later this year. Also in June, we borrowed a second $500 million tranche of the $1 billion term loan that we put in place in March. We expect to issue around $1.5 billion of long-term holding company debt later this year to pay down the term loan and buy back more shares. This financing activity will allow us to continue making progress on our 60 million share repurchase target. As of the end of June, we purchased over 36 million shares or 60% of our total 60 million target and we still have an ASR yet to close. The ultimate number and timing of shares repurchased depends on the market factors and the financial outlook of the company. Now wrapping up on Slide 12. In summary, as Terry said, we're happy with the progress one year after the merger close. We've reaffirmed our 2019 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.80 to $3 per share. We're expecting year-over-year EPS growth in the second half to be driven primarily by cost reduction efforts, accretion from lower shares and lower income tax expense consistent with the tax rate published in our earnings drivers earlier this year. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Terry.
Terry Bassham:
All right. And I think we're ready for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from Greg Gordon of Evercore ISI. Your line is open.
Greg Gordon:
Thanks, good morning.
Terry Bassham:
Good morning, Greg.
Anthony Somma:
Good morning, Greg.
Greg Gordon:
So, it looks like the business plan you've laid out on the Q4 call with regard to how you achieve your earnings growth aspirations as well providing the benefits of the merger to your customer. It seems like it's -- it's on pretty much on track, but can you talk a little bit more about on the margin, why you're making the small allocation shift from Kansas to Missouri in terms of the capital allocation?
Terry Bassham:
Yes, Greg, it's, -- it's part of an ongoing process for us to continue to look at jurisdictions where opportunities exist, that may be done in the others and look for additional opportunities and the latter years is our five-year plan we've talked about that we continue to work on. In particular, Missouri has a piece of opportunity, where we can invest additional dollars without creating additional lag during this period without rate cases, a mechanism that Kansas doesn't have. So, it's an obvious first step in that process and we're going to continue to look for additional opportunities both from that perspective and from just a long-term growth.
Greg Gordon:
Right.
Terry Bassham:
That makes sense?
Greg Gordon:
In terms of the synergy uptake, I mean you said that you're on track to hit your numbers, but can you talk about -- you talked about some pretty robust statistics vis-a-vis head count just from normal attrition?
Terry Bassham:
Yes.
Greg Gordon:
As you look, as you look at the overall opportunity for cost optimization, which obviously flows one way or another to customers through lower rates over time. Do you see the synergy targets sort of being the end of the line? Or do you see an opportunity over the long-term to continue to optimize the cost structure of the business perhaps when the rate moratorium period ends by deploying capital into lower cost generation resources like winds and solar and moving to a greener portfolio that and this kind age is actually has or better or more economic than some of the preexisting infrastructure that you may have when you look out five years?
Terry Bassham:
Yes, let me hit a couple of those points. The first is, we feel really good and maybe one of the benefits of spending a two year period on the approval processes is that we feel really good about our execution on the synergy savings. And I think, as we've reflected in the results, the first half of the year, not only we're executing as expected, but we're finding some additional ones. Again some scale opportunities as we do some synergy work and expansion on our RFP processes that we have been very happy with. So, we've seen some flexibility there on the upside, just from a synergy side and will continue to work on that. Long-term no, we don't expect that to stop. We would expect to continue to find opportunities that we were either hopeful or our plan to evaluate, but didn't have a number attached to, and I will also complement our teams throughout the company for working together hard to find those very things that may be from scale, maybe just finding the right way to do something between the two companies and that route way may be neither way we did it before in those companies, but drives efficiency both in headcount, an opportunity. I mentioned I think in my comments that we've got a new customer information system we're working on. We expect that to drive additional efficiencies over time. And then finally, to your point on future opportunities, yes, we continue to see our -- as Tony mentioned, our geographic location through Western Kansas as a strategic advantage to us, as we all try to look to be more green and satisfy our customer desire for more green results, which are also very cost efficient at this point.
Greg Gordon:
Thanks. Congratulations on a great first half.
Terry Bassham:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Ali Agha of SunTrust. Your line is open.
Ali Agha:
Thank you. Good morning.
Terry Bassham:
Good morning.
Anthony Somma:
Good morning.
Ali Agha:
Good morning. My first question, Terry in your comments, you alluded to the fact that you're also looking at in your planning process, opportunities for incremental capex. Can you give us some rough sense of on a cumulative basis, how much that could be and when would you plan to update us on that?
Terry Bassham:
Well, probably the most appropriate thing to say at this point, because we haven't finished our work, as if you just calculate a cap on what piece that would allow. It could be just shy of $1 billion. Again, before we come out with a plan related to that, we want to talk about timing, and process, and projects and be very definitive. We've said before that, that would be our plan all along. So, yes, you could see a number up to that amount, that would make sense and still fit within the piece of and other requirements under Missouri. We would expect over the course, probably the next six months to be able to talk about what our later year plans would be and our overall piece of plans would be.
Ali Agha:
Okay. And then secondly, once all of these studies are done in Kansas, even the Phase 2, one is done. Any sense on where the legislature wants to go with that or would that be the end of it and so on? What are you hearing or what are -- what's your read there?
Terry Bassham:
Well, I think -- I think an independent review. And again, we've said the data speaks for itself and I think both the Commission staff and we providing our initial reports that were very similar reflected, that we would see confirmation from an end of in that party that shows kind of where we stand and an explanation of how we got here. So, first of all, the reflection of where we sit from a competitive spent, standpoint is reflective of a lot of spin that both companies had to make over a 10-year period. But the merger provides exactly the strategy to attack that issue over the next four or five years as we don't have to increase rates, and in fact will lower our costs. And so as we get that end then I think the second phase is targeted at the other things that are happening in our industry. Like an electric vehicle charging and other things like that, that we welcome an opportunity to have this conversation. So, I think it's a good educational process. I think Kansas independent party or work to provide the legislature with a view of not only their commissioners, but their utility and consultant that will allow us to have a good conversation around what would be the kinds of policy issues in Kansas, we look forward to addressing.
Ali Agha:
One last question, can you remind us how much COLI income if any have you booked in the first half and conceptually, would you consider excluding COLI earnings from your adjusted numbers going forward?
Anthony Somma:
Good morning, Ali, this is Tony. I believe the COLI numbers for the quarter were about $2.5 million and year-to-date were around $9 million. Now, as far as the, the second part of your question, what we issue are our drivers, earnings drivers, we will list out separately what kind of the assumptions are for COLI and we'll leave it up to the investment community, whether or not they want to keep the numbers in our keep or -- take them out. And as we said all along, these are just timing differences.
Ali Agha:
Thank you.
Anthony Somma:
You're welcome.
Terry Bassham:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Michael Lapides of Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Michael Lapides:
Thanks for taking my question. I actually have a couple here. First of all, when thinking about O&M savings from the merger and I'm kind of looking back at Slide 19. Are you saying that you think you could get upside as soon as may be next year, meaning upside to the $145 million target? Or is it more upside that comes in the back end of the plan meeting upside of the $160 million run rate and kind of the out-year of 2022?
Anthony Somma:
Michael, this is Tony. Well this is -- this is something that we are continually reviewing and looking at. Now specifically to your question, the answer is possibly, yes on both, right, because we're trying to look at ways to get better, ways to be more efficient. Terry mentioned the billing system in the back office system, in accounting, we're also looking at RPA and big data. We use big data, it helps us on turbine vibration, on substations etc. So, we're obviously trying to beat those numbers that we have laid out on the page.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Thanks, Tony. And then in Missouri when I think about your EPS guidance growth rate, the multi-year, what are you assuming in the next couple of years you do in terms of piece of filings, meaning, I'm trying to think about how much capital you're likely to invest in Missouri, if I look at your CapEx Slide on Page 18 or the segment-by-segment capex, I think you guys given the 10-K. How should we think about how much of that CapEx is actually PISA [ph] eligible and what's in the EPS growth rate in terms of how much kind of the revenue increases or the deferrals tied to PISA [ph]?
Anthony Somma:
So, the Missouri CapEx and I'll just -- I'm looking at Slide 18 as well. Michael, it's probably 75% would be eligible for the PISA election and that would be our intention obviously. And to the extent that is deferring some regulatory drag, that is built into our assumptions in our -- our drivers in the out years that's hitting our EPS CAGR.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. And am I remembering how the rule works rather low works that you defer the DNA, but you continue to book the AFUDC?
Anthony Somma:
So you get to differ. I think 85% of the depreciation and the interest expense. If I remember right. If that answers your question?
Michael Lapides:
Yes. Okay, thank you. And -- Oh, I'm sorry. Hey, Tony, how do you treat the equity component of AFUDC? Do you stop booking once in service?
Anthony Somma:
So, the equity component will get brought into earnings at the time of your next rate case over a 20-year period.
Michael Lapides:
Got it, okay. Thank you. Much appreciate it, guys.
Anthony Somma:
You're welcome.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith of Bank of America. Your line is open.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Good morning. I just wanted to follow-up quickly up on the last set of questions here on PISA eligibility and just had a line up against your staff. Can you remind us a little bit more with respect to how you think about how soon you could start deploying capital given the fact that as you say, it's only 85% deferral of depreciation and interest expense? Maybe the extent to which that affords an opportunity, how early could you start spending given the fact that you stay out is through 2022?
Anthony Somma:
Well, we're spending today.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Well, sorry. Yes. The incrementally rather is the way I should clarify.
Anthony Somma:
Well, as Terry said, we're going through the process and over the next six months, we'll be able to update folks on where we stand and where we end up on that process.
Terry Bassham:
Yes. Remember that we've elected, so, we're in and so as Tony said, we could be spending today on things that qualified. But in terms of reallocating, we're working on our long-term plan and our plan for next year in particular and so we could have been making changes along that line.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. But to clarify, with the fact that you have a stay out impede your ability to accelerate through this mechanism. I mean to a certain extent but...
Anthony Somma:
No. Remember -- yes remember, technically we don't have a stay out in Missouri. Remember that the way Missouri worked in Kansas we're different. And so, we expect to stay out given our earnings and savings projections, but the way the piece of works, we're not affected by that, are actually driver for the next rate case in Missouri would be fuel any kind of right after that PISA true up. So, it's a little different in Missouri and no, none of that would keep us from moving forward with PISA investment greater than we've talked about. already.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. Okay, thank you for that. And then, if I can hear back to another question that was asked, just to clarify a little bit further here just even on the first part of the study. I mean, when you say effectiveness of Kansas rate making practices, can you clarify a little bit more what exact -- what parts of rate making practices would be deemed to be evaluated for quote, unquote effectiveness. Just trying to understand with the scope of this effort more than anything else. I think, Ali might have been asking something similar, but if you could elaborate?
Anthony Somma:
Well, I think you probably have as much specificity as they exist. I think there is some concern by some parties that our rates are -- have risen faster than the national average. And even though, they're at the national average, or higher than they would like. And as a result, when you look at things effectiveness, what they're really looking at is what cause them to be that. And so being able to explain, how we got there and where are we at is what our studies did. And what I think the first step in the independent study will do, and into second half will be higher effective other things and that could range to should we have more EV charging throughout the state. And if so, how should that be done and provided for. We've not done a lot of electric vehicle charging stations in Kansas because of kind of our processes there. So, it could range -- I think originally to focus is cost, which again I think we've talked about how the merger helps address that. And secondly, there could be other particular folks interested in particular policies, that have or have not been adopted in Kansas, in the past. That's probably about as much as we've got now in terms of where that could hit.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
That's fair enough, I'll leave it there. Thank you all, very much, and good luck.
Anthony Somma:
Thank you.
Terry Bassham:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Charles Fishman of Morningstar Research. Your line is open.
Charles Fishman:
Thank you. Terry, this ES -- combined ESG disclosure before EEI. Do you envision that as something based on what I've seen other utilities do either through the ESG of course, IRPs? Do you see that as possibly an opening for some accelerated coal plant retirements? And would that provide you another step towards further saving O&M savings beyond just the merger savings you've outlined and looks like you're going to hit?
Terry Bassham:
Well, our ESG filing first of all, should reflect, again the format and template the EEI has work together, so that investors can kind of see a similar accounting if you will and a similar positioning of those efforts. And it will reflect our current retirements and our current wind activities, which show that over -- up to an over 50% of our energy comes from nuclear and wind, totaling over 50% of our total kilowatt-hour sales or energy. And that's a very positive message. As far as moving forward, we're now at a position where we've got our larger more efficient units and capacity, obviously becomes an issue and we want to be sure we're cautious about those kind of things. But it would help inform investors and help inform our commission, so that those kind of conversations can continue going forward. But we always have to remember to provide capacity to our customers is an important part of the remainder of our portfolio.
Charles Fishman:
Well, I realize your renewable percentage over on the Kansas side is very high and I guess what I was anticipating is maybe you would use this as an opportunity to maybe push that on the Missouri jurisdiction?
Terry Bassham:
Yes. Remember...
Charles Fishman:
Is that a possibility?
Terry Bassham:
Well, remember, although located in Western Kansas, we jurisdictionally allocate all our generation based on usage customers, those kind of metrics. So from our percentage perspective, they're basically the same. There are some unique assets, but they are pretty small and our wind in particular is allocated over the jurisdiction. So, it's very similar actually.
Charles Fishman:
Okay. And that's the way the ESG of the presentation will be done. We're consolidating both jurisdictions?
Terry Bassham:
Yes.
Charles Fishman:
Okay. Got it, thank you. That's all, I have.
Terry Bassham:
You bet you. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Paul Patterson of Glenrock Associates. Your line is open.
Paul Patterson:
Hey, good morning. So, I'm afraid I am going to have to ask -- okay, I've got this CapEx and I apologize for being a little confused here. When you're talking about the incremental opportunity or you talking about the incremental opportunity, in total CapEx spending or in terms of shifting CapEx from Kansas into Missouri into the PISA kind of thing. If you could just -- I apologize, if you could just elab -- just clarify that a little bit for me?
Terry Bassham:
Yes, that's okay. It's both. So first, the $150 million we mentioned specifically is a reallocation. And so, it would not change our total $6 billion estimate that we provided. So that's number one. Number two, what we've talked about is that we're working on future plans that we'll be talking about later in the year or early next year around what our additional spend might be. And so that's not included in the current plans and we've not given specific guidance of any sort as to what that amounts -- amount not be. So that's the difference. The $150 million does not relate to an increase in total spend. We have future expectations of providing guidance that would discuss any additional spend later in the year, early next year.
Paul Patterson:
Okay, great. And then you mentioned sort of the education process for lack of better term in Kansas with respect to how rate making sort of works if you follow me or how utility investment and what have you does. I'm just wondering, when we look at the PISA and obviously that's an opportunity and what have you or how confident are you that the policymakers actually sort of understand what the -- that as investment actually will costs? In other words, is there any concern that you might see situation which sort of has developed in Kansas, whether it's sort of a question mark how do we get here, maybe replicating itself potentially in a jurisdiction like Missouri. I just asked that because legislators don't often this is really the details of -- this is really what they're proving and we do have a useful mechanism here. But I was just sort of wondering, if there is any, anything that you guys are looking at going forward in terms of maybe a similar situation or the avoidance of a similar situation that is occurring in Kansas happening in Missouri. Do you follow me?
Terry Bassham:
I do. What I would say is -- the common sense and I don't -- to say it, but in every state, every legislature, they have their focus based on what's happening in that jurisdiction. And clearly, Missouri has been focused on infrastructure spend, and jobs, and the opportunity to improve our infrastructure and that was the basis for PISA, it was a basis for other things across the state as well. But in particular with our electric utilities, it was a focus on spending for infrastructure improvement. Kansas has been stayed more focused in this last discussion and it's a pretty recent discussion. We have not had this discussion in this session before on the level of -- our level of rates. And so, they come from a different position I would say, and that's why we believe using and accessing the PISA opportunity which the state of Missouri clearly would like us to do to spend more on infrastructure in Missouri is an opportunity to reallocate dollars, because in Kansas, they're more concerned in holding total cost down. So it serves both purposes from that perspective. Could the discussion in either state begin to happen in the other state? Sure, but that's not the focus of the states at this point and we're confident in our ability to discuss each in the relative jurisdiction.
Anthony Somma:
Awesome.
Paul Patterson:
Okay, great answer. And then the other thing just a sort of quick sort of housekeeping question. I was looking through the 10-Q and everything, I just had a little difficulty finding this, what's the organics weather adjusted sales growth numbers that you've had for the first half. Organic, in other words, obviously the mergers changed a few things, do you follow what I'm saying in the respective jurisdictions, how should we think about what weather adjusted sales growth has been year-to-date?
Terry Bassham:
Paul, good morning. What we've said is, we are targeting total sales growth roughly flat to 50 basis points.
Paul Patterson:
Right.
Terry Bassham:
And that has occurred.
Paul Patterson:
And how has it been for the first half? How does that come in? How is the -- how the actual has been weather adjusted?
Terry Bassham:
It's been largely in line with our expectations. Things are growing with gangbusters, but we're not seeing any contraction as well.
Paul Patterson:
Okay, that's it from me. Thanks, so much.
Terry Bassham:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Gregg Orrill of UBS. Your line is open.
Gregg Orrill:
Just a follow-up on the PISA spending. Do you have any plans at this point, how it might impact your growth -- EPS growth guidance?
Terry Bassham:
Well, obviously we -- our plan would be that it would improve it to the extent that we did that, but we don't have a range yet, because we haven't finished our work on the total dollar amounts. But certainly, that would give us some opportunity for additional growth in spend and EPS that we currently don't have in the plan.
Gregg Orrill:
Thanks.
Operator:
Our next question comes from [indiscernible]. Your line is open.
Unidentified Analyst:
Just back on the PISA CapEx. Again is the incremental opportunity, the total $1 billion or is it the $1 billion, less the $150 million that you've already reallocated?
Terry Bassham:
The $1 billion is really a total number. So it's, -- it includes that $150 million reallocation and that's the way it worked.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay. And if you ultimately sought to do the incremental $850 million, would you need any additional equity financing for it?
Terry Bassham:
That's not currently the plan.
Anthony Somma:
Currently in the plan, we have to look at the financial projections in the model and see what our credit metrics look like.
Unidentified Analyst:
And if the legislation is written to allow you to do the incremental $850 million, what is that would keep you from going up to the cap?
Terry Bassham:
Just overall, ability to get it done, you got to have projects. But we believe we have that ability and obviously we're impacting customers rates. So, we'd be watching how that affected as well. But other than, good business judgment around those two things, nothing, that's really what the caps therefore.
Unidentified Analyst:
And just to confirm the current CapEx plan as it is right now through the forecast period put you at the midpoint of the earnings guidance range?
Anthony Somma:
We haven't said where the CapEx plan places within the guidance range.
Ali Agha:
Okay.
Anthony Somma:
You're talking to...
Unidentified Analyst:
Exactly.
Anthony Somma:
Long-term or both?
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay. All right. Listen, thank you, very much.
Terry Bassham:
Yes, thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is a follow-up from Michael Lapides. Lapides with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Michael Lapides:
That's hilarious. Hey guys, easy question for your Tony. How over the $110 million in merger synergies for 2019, how much have you realized year-to-date? What's an O&M and G&A year-to-date?
Anthony Somma:
Well, I know -- I know, a year-over-year variances like year-to-date were $84 million better than we were last year and $52 million for the quarter. We are ahead of our targets for the synergies. I just don't know the exact number. So, it was an easy question, but I struck out.
Terry Bassham:
Yes, I'd say obviously, the total number is not ratable. So, but I would say that at midpoint given all we know, we're -- as Tony said ahead of plan.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Okay, guys. Thank you. I'll follow-up offline.
Terry Bassham:
You bet.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Andrew Levi of ExodusPoint. Your line is open.
Andrew Levi:
Hey guys. How are you?
Terry Bassham:
Good. Yourself?
Andrew Levi:
I'm doing really well. Just some follow-up questions, just on the $850 million of incremental capex. When would that spend begin to happen? Is that the next year, '21, '22?
Anthony Somma:
Again, we don't have a plan for that yet. There is nothing to prohibit us from beginning construction and spend as the projects are available and we could start those as appropriate. So, obviously, we would map out the plan around our annual plans and budgets and what kind of projects and how long they took to execute on. So, but there is no time limitation on how quickly we could get started, if we had those plans in place.
Andrew Levi:
And I'm sorry, maybe I missed it earlier that $850 million, would be spent over what time frame, like how many years?
Anthony Somma:
We don't really have a timeline except far, there is a true-up of PISA that it's a 4-year -- 4-year true-up -- fourth year true-up. So we're talking about a context of over a time period, but when and how it would be spent again, we haven't developed or published.
Terry Bassham:
Some may be parameters handy would be all else being equal. We will be filing a rate case in Missouri for new rates effective the first part of 2023. So you back up from that, we've filed and call it early '22 and you would update a test year kind of the June time frame of 2022. So that would kind of be ideal, but it doesn't mean we would stop necessarily. It depends on the projects and it depends on the runway and lead time and all that. But those are just some things you should consider.
Andrew Levi:
Or is there another parameter were kind of your maximum spend on a year-based on how the PISA is written?
Terry Bassham:
So, I believe, it's a 3% CAGR.
Andrew Levi:
So what would that be CapEx wise you think?
Anthony Somma:
Well, it's the $1 billion number that we've thrown out. We gave you the total number.
Andrew Levi:
I'm saying on an annual basis?
Terry Bassham:
Yes. It depends on the projects, it depends on the amount, but there is a -- there is a 3% cap.
Andrew Levi:
Okay. And then, just a last question; if you were to start spending next year as a follow-up of somebody else's question. Let's just assume, you start spending next year and '21 and then you've bought back 36 million shares that you have this accelerated purchase of another $500 million and I guess to the current like $46 million [indiscernible] but it's sort of I guess issue of equity, you could just buyback our shares and that kind of would -- that make more sense versus buying back shares and that issuing shares if you needed to assuming you need to?
Terry Bassham:
So those are the other things that we obviously looking at Andy, right. As we're going through the planning horizon, we work with the operations in the financial modeling team.
Ali Agha:
Okay. And I assume we'll get an updated EEI kind of the way we think about it?
Terry Bassham:
We'll obviously, will update you EEI what we have and obviously we'll be working on plans for 2021 around that time. But we traditionally would give earnings guidance in those kind of things at the first of the year.
Andrew Levi:
Okay. And then the last thing is just kind of based on what you have said before, you I guess politically you feel much more comfortable about raising capex. Obviously, you have a more cost savings to maybe that helps as far as customer bills. I guess you feel better politically about kind of what's going on to be able to do that. Is that correct?
Terry Bassham:
Yes. Again in Missouri, they specifically put this mechanism in place to encourages if you will allow us to spend additional and feel comfortable with our ability to recover. Same mechanism is not in place in Kansas and in fact the discussions are on the current level of rate and concerns around those. So, those are two different places with two different focuses as we speak.
Andrew Levi:
Perfect. Thank you, guys, very much.
Terry Bassham:
You bet. Thank you.
Operator:
There are no further questions. I would like to turn the call back over to Terry Bassham for any closing remarks.
Terry Bassham:
All right. Thank you very much. Thank you for joining us. And, hope everybody has a good rest of the summer. Thank you.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This does conclude the program and you may all disconnect. Everyone have a great day.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentleman. This is your conference operator. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Q1 2019 Evergy Inc. Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Lori Wright. You may begin your conference.
Lori Wright:
Thank you, Lori. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Evergy's first quarter call. Thank you for joining this morning. Today's discussion will include forward-looking information. Slide 2 and the disclosure in our SEC filings containing a list of some of the factors that could cause future results to differ materially from our expectations and includes additional information on non-GAAP financial measures. We issued our first quarter 2019 earnings release and 10-Q after market close yesterday. These items are available, along with today's webcast slides and supplemental financial information for the quarter, on the main page of our website at evergyinc.com. On the call today, we have Terry Bassham, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Tony Somma, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Other members of management are with us and will be available during the question-and-answer portion of the call. As summarized on Slide 3, Terry will recap the quarter and provide a business update. Tony will update you on the details of our latest financial results. With that, I'll hand the call to Terry.
Terry Bassham:
Thanks, Lori, and good morning, everybody. I'll begin on Slide 5. 2019 is an important year for our company. We're targeting strong year-over-year earnings growth as we capture the benefits of the merger. Last night we reported first quarter GAAP earnings of $0.39 per share compared to $0.42 per share earned in the first quarter of 2018. Adjusted earnings were $0.44 per share in first quarter 2019 compared to $0.34 in the same period a year ago. The year-over-year increase in earnings was primarily driven by cost-reduction efforts and higher retail sales due to colder weather. I'm pleased with the execution of our team and we saw the first quarter delivered, which keeps us on pace to achieve our 2019 targets. As we focused on our plan, cost reductions and share repurchases, mother nature presented us with a few challenges during the quarter. As we previously stated, our team banded together to restore power during a major storm that hit Kansas City in January, which was a once in a couple of decades kind of storm. At its peak, we had about 200,000 customers out of service. But through the dedicated work ethic of our team, we fully restored customers within 5 days of the event. Separate from the January storm, we also had flooding that impacted our service territory in March. The out-of-town generation station near Western Missouri was our most at risk piece of infrastructure. If you recall, in 2011 we experienced flooding in the same region. One silver lining of dealing with the 2011 event, we've been more prepared for conditions as they developed this year. Emergency plans and infrastructure builds 8 years ago allowed us to withstand the floodwaters without a significant impact. We did alter our day-to-day operations for about a 1.5 weeks, but we're able to resume normal operations by the end of March. I'd like to give a special praise to our folks in the field that worked in less than ideal situations, as you might imagine, to ensure the protection of our assets and keep customers' power interruptions to a minimum during these events. Before I move on, let me update you on our efforts towards renewable energy, mainly affordable wind. Kansas now ranks #1 with respect to wind resources as a percentage of megawatt hours produced. Our company recently reached a milestone by producing over 50 million-megawatt hours of wind. To put that in perspective, that's enough power to light up Times Square for more than 3 decades. Locally, we have been working with the City of Kansas City, Missouri, to achieve their goal of offsetting 100% of their municipal electric energy usage with energy produced from carbon-free sources by 2020. We continue to see more and more demand for our existing -- from our existing customers and potential new customers to be supplied with the abundant renewable resources found within the states we serve. Now moving on to Slide 6. I'll give you the latest on our regulatory and legislative proceedings. As you may recall, we agreed to produce the Kansas rate study as part of our merger agreement last year. We completed the study and presented the results to the House of Senate early in the Kansas legislative session this year. The KCC staff also completed similar but -- yet separate study of Kansas rates to present their findings to the legislature as well. Throughout the session, Kansas rates continue to be a topic of discussion. Ultimately, Senate Bill 69 was passed, signed into law by Governor Kelly in April and authorized an independent retail rate study of Kansas Electric Public Utilities. The study will provide information that may assist future efforts of developing electric policy aimed at delivering regional competitive rates and reliable electric service. The process is expected to take place throughout the remainder of this year with findings to be delivered starting in January of next year. Let me be clear, we believe the merger, with its upfront and ongoing bill credits and significant cost efficiencies, has tremendous benefits for our customers prices for years to come and goes a long way toward addressing these concerns. In March, Governor Laura Kelly appointed Susan Duffy to the Kansas Corporation Commission. Commissioner Duffy previously served as Executive Director of KCC staff and most recently as the General Manager of Topeka Metro responsible for the management and operation of the Topeka transit system. We look forward to working with her as she transitions into her new role in the KCC. Now moving to the latest proceedings in Missouri. In March, the Missouri Public Service Commission set a procedural schedule to hear complaint regarding GMO's Sibley plant, which we retired in the fourth quarter of last year. The complaint asked the commission to issue an accounting authority order to defer all costs we avoid that are currently reflected in retail rates, except for depreciation that is associated with the retired generation unit. Direct testimony was filed in April by the complainants, Office of Public Counsel and an industrial customer group and we'll file our rebuttal testimony later this month. Hearings are set for mid-July and we expect a commission order by early September. Missouri legislative session has been mainly focused on education, workforce development and infrastructure funding. We don't expect any of the energy-related bills to receive the traction needed to move forward this session. Now turning to Slide 7. Let me update you on the latest regarding our merger plans. Upon launching our merger, we laid out 3 specific priorities we remain keenly focused on
Anthony Somma:
Thanks, Terry. Good morning, everyone. I'll start with results on Slide 10 of the presentation. Last night, we reported first quarter GAAP earnings of $100 million or $0.39 per share compared to $61 million or $0.42 per share in the first quarter of '18. The increase in earnings is primarily due to the inclusion of KCPL's and GMO's results in the first quarter of 2019, which aren't included in Evergy's first quarter 2018 results. GAAP EPS was $0.03 lower, primarily due to the dilution of shares issued to Great Plains Energy shareholders upon closing of the merger. Adjusted non-GAAP earnings were $111 million or $0.44 per share compared to $92 million or $0.34 per share in the same period a year ago. As detailed on the slide, adjusted EPS was up $0.10, primarily driven by cost reduction efforts, peer shares outstanding and colder than normal weather. Some additional drivers for the quarter include gross margin being up $22 million, primarily due to new retail rates, net of the 2018 provision for rate refund for the lower corporate tax rate, and favorable weather, which we estimate contributed about $0.05 compared to first quarter 2018. O&M was down $30 million primarily driven by cost reduction efforts associated with merger-enabled efficiencies and plant retirements in Missouri. Depreciation and amortization was $30 million higher, primarily from new depreciation rates that are reflected in our retail prices. And lastly, accretion resulting from our share repurchase activity which added about $0.03 a share. For the quarter, pro forma residential sales were up 4.5% and commercial sales were up 1.7%, primarily due to the colder weather, which we estimate helped about $0.06 when compared to normal. Pro forma industrial sales were about 3.5% lower in the same period last year. Most of this decrease comes from a large customer in the chemical sector that saw decreased demand at their plant in our service territory. From an economic standpoint, things have stayed steady in our territories. Current plan rates continue to hover in the low to mid-3% range, remaining below the national average. We saw a nice pickup in multi-family home construction, marking the highest quarterly numbers in this area in the last couple of years. Steady growth remains present in the business services, health care and pet sectors. A pet technology company recently announced the relocation of their headquarters from Silicon Valley to Kansas City. This should bring a few hundred jobs and add to the established animal science corridor that is present within our territory. Now moving on to Slide 11. Let me touch on our latest financing activities. In March, we issued $400 million of KCPL bonds at 4.125%, replacing bonds with a coupon of 7.15%. As far as upcoming maturities, KG&E has $300 million. The first mortgage bonds coming due in June that we'll look to replace. Moving on to the holding company. In March, we entered a $1 billion term loan that will expire in September. This allows us to continue our share repurchases between now and later this year, where we project to issue about $1.5 billion of long-term holding company debt. While repurchasing 60 million shares by the next year continues to be our target, the ultimate amount of holding company debt needed will vary based on share price timing and total number of share repurchases. All of which are subject to market factors and the financial outlook of the company. Throughout the first quarter, we repurchased over 10 million shares through the combination of ASRs and open market purchases. As of the end of April, we've now purchased around 46% of the total 60 million shares -- share target, and we'll still have outstanding an ASR that has not closed. Wrapping up on Slide 12, as Terry mentioned, our first quarter results started the year in a right direction, so we are reaffirming our 2019 adjusted EPS guidance range of $2.80 to $3 per share. We remain focused on delivering significant cost reductions, while executing our investment plan that minimizes lag during our regulatory stay-out period over the next 4 to 5 years. Again, to echo what Terry said, we're being very intentional with our capital allocation, giving preference to earning certainty, zeroed on earning our allowed returns and maintaining flexibility for the future and returning capital to you, our shareholders. We remain confident in the plan that we've laid out and continue to believe our thesis offers a competitive and attractive risk-adjusted total shareholder return profile, while focused on keeping customer rates competitive. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Terry.
Terry Bassham:
All right. Thank you for joining us. We'll take questions now.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. Your first question comes from the line of Greg Gordon from Evercore ISI.
Gregory Gordon:
A couple questions. First, am I right that when you called out that the storm costs, all things equal, had a $13 million impact in the quarter? So despite that, it's like almost $0.05 headwind, you still were able to get to the $0.44 number?
Terry Bassham:
That's correct.
Gregory Gordon:
Okay. And that -- when you look at what average annual storm costs look like in a normal year, would you expect that, that would be something that might recur normally year-over-year, but just happened over the course of time? Or do you see that as an exceptional event?
Terry Bassham:
No, that was an exceptional event, that's why I mentioned it's a -- I guess, we say it a lot now, couple in the decades event, but, no, we normally don't have that many customers out 5 days. And so not only do you have extra expense, but you got lost revenue. So that is not normal and haven't -- in fact, I've been here almost 15 years and it's the worst storm we've seen since I've been here.
Gregory Gordon:
Well, congratulations on getting your customers back so quickly. My second question goes to your capital allocation commentary. And I know that customer affordability is a huge issue for you and you are rightfully primarily focused on it and it's one of the reasons for the merger. And so you've been very careful about not trying to send the wrong message to your customers about capital spending, but at the same time, I'm hearing you talk about an increased desire for renewable energy from your customers. One of the things that I'm also seeing industry-wide is the ability to deploy new technologies that while they do increase capital spend also improve the customer experience and potentially lower bills, so as you think about the back-end of that CapEx program in '22 and '23, not to put words in your mouth and disguise a question as a statement, but are those the type of things that are not yet in the plan that you're thinking about? And can you elaborate perhaps on that?
Terry Bassham:
Yes, you're exactly right. Obviously, focused on, as you said, the near-term stability after each company spent 10 years on both reliability, generation and environmental spend. This period post-merger with the synergy savings provide an opportunity for growth is critical. But as you described also, we have ever-changing needs from what customers want and we are very fortunate to have the opportunity to be near one of the best wind resources in the country. We see that as not only an ability to serve our current customers, we see that as an ability to attract economic development from new customers. And we are part of our teams in each of our states and each of our cities. When we talk to folks considering moving to a region about that opportunity, what used to be a green opportunity is now also a green and a low cost opportunity given the technologies around that. In addition to that, you're exactly right, we also have both reliability and customer desire technologies that we're dealing with every single day like everybody is. And that's an area where PISA in particular provides us with a great opportunity to ramp up spend in a way that's structured and approved in Missouri and almost expected. So we're looking at the timing and the ability to do those as well. So each one of those gives us the ability not only to be stable in the short term, but provide for that additional growth in the long-term, and we look forward to updating shareholders along the way as we finalize some of those plans.
Gregory Gordon:
Congratulations on a good quarter.
Terry Bassham:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Ali Agha from SunTrust.
Ali Agha:
First question, Terry. So the Kansas rate review that would finish up in early 2020, to the extent that they find the rates are too high for whatever reason, how would that actually impact you guys given that you have a rate freeze as part of your merger agreement? I'm just thinking about the logistics here, if there is some negative ruling that comes out there.
Terry Bassham:
Yes, I mean, I don't know for sure. What I would tell you is that we are very confident that this is the legislature, which would look at opportunities maybe to send to the commission further work to be done, potentially. But we certainly see that the ultimate outcome of the study should reflect not only the current benchmarking, if you will, of our rates, but the historical development of our cost and rates and what we see in the future, which again, is consistent with what we just talked with Greg about in that, that's what our current merger opportunity provides us with, assurances to those legislators that we see the same issue and have addressed it and our merger does just that. Process-wise, we saw some legislation this time that we didn't think really was appropriate. And obviously, the legislature agreed that we ought to be talking about a study before we look into those kind of things. But certainly if they have particular concerns, we're confident that we'll be able to work with our legislators and our local customers about options that may help solve those problems in a way that makes sense both to them and to our shareholders.
Ali Agha:
And generally speaking, are you and the staff on the same page on this? Or is staff in their study thinking differently?
Terry Bassham:
No, we actually presented our own study side-by-side. Our witness and their witness and answered the same questions and we are lock-step. I would say that our relationship through the [indiscernible] merger too, where we worked through the final merger settlement in the process for the structure of that stay-out and overview, put us in a position of absolutely being consistent in our voice to our legislators.
Ali Agha:
Okay. Second question, just clarifying your comments from earlier. So as you mentioned, you're fairly confident in the earnings growth that you've laid out for us through 2023, which by definition implies that the growth in that '21 through '23 period of roughly 5%-or-so is exceeding what your current rate base growth would be from the current CapEx plan, which is in the 2% to 3% range. So it appears that you run the math and you've identified potentially the levers already that would keep you in that growth trajectory. A, is that right in terms of potentially the CapEx that you could incrementally spend? And b, when would you convey that to us and the investment community in terms of what kind of opportunities you see for potential increase in CapEx in those outer years?
Anthony Somma:
This is Tony. So there is near -- various obviously levers that come up with our guidance range, especially, particularly, when you're going out that far to 2023. Some of them we mentioned in the script which is we could potentially delever the holding company. We can look at increasing our spend if it's right for our customers and for our shareholders where we don't have a lot of regulatory lag. And so as we look at things going out and we'll gain more certainty throughout the planning year this year and we would hope to maybe to the extent the stuff changes, we would let folks know, either foreshadow that at EEI and adding more clarity with some of the numbers when we do our year-end 2019 call.
Ali Agha:
I see. And last question just clarifying the 46% roughly of the share buyback, total buyback that you completed. Does that include the ASR that was announced but not completed? Or is that not that factored into this?
Anthony Somma:
It includes the initial delivery of some shares, but ASR is not closed. And so the parties will give us the remaining shares when the contract terminates.
Ali Agha:
So putting all of that, how much is bought back?
Anthony Somma:
Well, as of the end of the April, it's roughly 46%, almost 27 million shares.
Operator:
And we have a question from the line of Michael Sullivan from Wolfe Research.
Michael Sullivan:
I first wanted to just touch on Kansas. Now that we've sort of gotten through this legislative session and seen the bill that ultimately got passed, but some of the other things that were discussed, could you guys just give us a sense or are you feeling better or worse about the whole political dynamic there? As we go into next year and we get the rate study results and you have a new legislative session. Just your thoughts there.
Terry Bassham:
Yes, we are feeling better actually. Certainly, when initial bill got passed or filed, our initial bills got entered, we became a topic of conversation. And so other folks who had concerns, some of them related to, for example, demand on renew -- on a solar installation. So things that were kind of out there, but just we became part of the discussion. I would say that through that we've talked to folks and solved many problems that were kind of one-offs or specific issues, I'd say. And the study to be conducted now with everybody in the room together, it gives us the ability to have those conversations along the way and not necessarily have as much debate at the very end after we completed. So I think our ability to continue to talk to people over the next 12 months, our ability to work with an independent consultant and our customers that evaluate all the concerns and issues is actually a positive from an outcome starting in January next year.
Anthony Somma:
And I'll add, we're continuing to give back merger credits to the tune of $11.5 million a year in Kansas.
Terry Bassham:
Yes. it's a good point. Remember, we gave our first credit back in the first year after all that was going on. By the time we get to the end of the year, they'll not only have seen that, but know what's in front on them as well. So it will affect those acknowledgments of what the merger means to our customers.
Michael Sullivan:
Great. And then just, Terry, on your comments on Slide 8 on the whole capital plan and what that looks like further out in time. Could you just be a little more specific on reallocation versus incremental? And what is going to drive that? And when we will have a better sense of sort of how that plays out?
Terry Bassham:
Yes. Tony kind of covered it, but what I would say is if you just looked at percentage allocations by state, remember that it's in part an allocation based on the number of customers in that state. So it may look like it's a little heavier one direction than other, but that's based on population. But more importantly, the commitment around the merger, in particular, in Kansas, provide stability, but also provides consistency, whereas the PISA bill in Missouri is specifically geared toward additional spending around infrastructure. We've seen Ameren go out with a plan and seeing what they're doing and have gotten very good responses from the commission. So we see an opportunity there to be able to potentially allocate more in that direction under the PISA structure, which doesn't exist in Kansas. And then, as you go along, you'll continue to see projects that are very specific. We've talked about the fact, we didn't put kind of general buckets out there, but as we develop projects, there may be more projects related to one need or another in a state that's very specific. So as we work through those allocations and budget plans, especially in that back-end period, you could see a focus on one jurisdiction versus another. I will remind you that Missouri is still in a position where we have some lag there. We overspend absent PISA, but they are also looking at shortening the time period for rate cases over there. So if that were to continue to develop, that might give us additional opportunity without creating lag before we got to the end of the period.
Michael Sullivan:
Okay. Great. And then just one last one, on 2019, I just wanted to clarify. I think when you gave guidance for the year on the last call that already baked in those storm costs, but then weather was actually $0.06 better than normal, I think, Tony said. Was that baked in as well? Or would that be favorable to what you guys were seeing at the time?
Anthony Somma:
So this is Tony. We -- when we come out with our -- came out with our guidance and our drivers to get to the $2.80 to $3 a share, we were assuming normal weather.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Charles Fishman from MorningStar Research.
Charles Fishman:
I just want to make sure I got this right. Okay, you are reaffirming the 5% to 7% with the base of $2.90 for this year. But did I hear that the EPS growth will be a little above, maybe the higher end of that range in the early years and lag in the later years unless some potential CapEx comes along? Or were you just referring to the merger savings being front-end loaded, which are obvious from the information you provided? If you can just clarify that for me, I'd appreciate it.
Terry Bassham:
Yes, well, they are both correct. I mean obviously, on the front end, as we ramp up the savings, there is an early lumpiness, if you will, trending on the front-end that drives in part the EPS pathway as well. And again, as it does that, the back-end is a little softer, we are talking about what we're doing to look at opportunities and needs for additional spending on the back-end from that perspective.
Operator:
And there are no further questions at this time. I'll turn the call back to Terry.
Terry Bassham:
Thank you, Lori, and thank you everybody for calling in this morning. Off to a good start and look forward to talking to you throughout the year. Thank you very much. Have a good day.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you everyone for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Terry Bassham – President and Chief Executive Officer Tony Somma – Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Lori A. Wright – Vice President-Corporate Planning, Investor Relations and Treasurer
Analysts:
Michael Sullivan – Wolfe Research Julien Dumoulin-Smith – Bank of America Greg Gordon – Evercore ISI Michael Lapides – Goldman Sachs Ali Agha – SunTrust Paul Ridzon – KeyBanc Charles Fishman – Morningstar Research Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates Shar Pourreza – Guggenheim Partners Ashar Khan – Visium Andrew Levi – ExodusPoint Kevin Fallon – Citadel
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Great Plains Evergy, Incorporation Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's presentation, Ms. Lori Wright. Ma'am, please begin.
Lori A. Wright:
Thank you, Howard. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Evergy's fourth quarter call. Thank you for joining us this morning. Today's discussion will include forward-looking information, slide 2 and the disclosure in our SEC filings containing list of some of the factors that could cause future results to differ materially from our expectations. Additional information and non-GAAP financial measures can be found on slide 3. We issued our fourth quarter 2018 earnings release and 2018 10-Q after market closed yesterday. These items are available along with today's webcast slides and supplemental financial information for the quarter on the main page of our website at evergyinc.com. On the call today, we have Terry Bassham, President and Chief Executive Officer and Tony Somma, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Other members of management team are with us and will be available during the question-and-answer portion of the call. As summarized on slide 4, Terry will recap our 2018 accomplishments provide business updates and give an outlook on 2019 and beyond. Tony will update you on our financial results, then offer details on our 2018 earnings guidance and other financial projections. With that, I'll hand the call to Terry.
Terry Bassham:
Thanks, Lori, and good morning, everybody. I'll start my comments on slide 6. 2018 was a very good year for Evergy. The merger took many twists and turns as you know over the past few years, but I’m extremely pleased with our team’s ability to thread the needle on successful regulatory proceedings, operational execution and integration of both business and culture. These accomplishments unlock the value of this combined company and allow for the delivery of solid financial and operational results, which we reported last night. Let me touch on some 2018 highlights. As mentioned, closing the merger allowed us to start capturing the benefits for our shareholders, customers and employees for years to come. Our company is now better positioned to operate efficiently and approach the future from a position of strength. We executed our target merger savings over the first seven months of our company. We're able to achieve constructive regulatory outcomes and settle in each of our filed rate reviews which reflects tax reform benefits for all customers. Not an easy task especially following the multi-year merger proceeding. We worked with stakeholders in Missouri to move Senate Bill 564 forward that modernizes the regulatory framework in the state. We officially implemented the Plant-In-Service Accounting benefits of this bill, which should improve our ability to earn our lab return in Missouri for years to come. We grew our dividend with the announcement of an increase last fall to our current indicated annual rate of $1.90 per share. We successfully executed our capital allocation plan, including the launch of our share repurchase program. By year-end, we retired over 16 million shares, a good start to tackling our total 60 million share target by mid 2020. Along with share purchases, we invested approximately $1.1 billion across our service territory, enabling us to continue to provide quality service that customers expect. We continued our strategy of transforming our fleet in a sustainable manner, retired 1500 megawatts of end-of-life fossil generation, while adding 244 megawatts of wind energy to our portfolio. This contributed to the 36% reduction in carbon level since 2005. We're expecting this trend to continue and by 2020, we project carbon reductions of more than 40% from the same 2005 base. Lastly, we delivered our customers energy in the safe and reliable manner. Our customer reliability metrics were in the first or second quartile for industry ranking, marking the second straight year that each of our utilities has been ranked in the top half of the three major reliability metrics. This is a testament to the continued dedication and commitment of our employees. These highlights help drive total shareholder return to the top quartile of the index. Moving now out to slide 7, I’ll give the latest on our regulatory proceedings. Integrating our workforce and following through our merger commitments continue to be a high priority. We're still on track with our target in merger savings plan. Actual 2018 savings were ahead of our gross targets. Higher than expected severance costs tied to a voluntary exit program calls net savings to be shy of our target. Including these severance costs we're in line with our 2018 expectations. Going forward, this will better position the company for more efficient operations. We'll continue to increase our efficiency efforts in 2019 as our saving targets ramp up year-over-year. Much of this increase will come from the annualized benefit of our 2018 savings and second wave of our supply chain sourcing efforts will also continue. In December, we officially announced the closing of two end-of-life fossil plants. Montrose of 330 megawatt coal plant owned by KCP&L and Sibley, a 400 megawatt coal plant owned by GMO. In addition, the merger savings will also see the benefit of a full year cost reductions related to these two plant retirements. Related to the closing of our Sibley plant in early January, office of public counsel and Midwest Energy Consumers Group filed the complaint in Missouri, requesting an accounting authority order to the [indiscernible] cost reductions associated with the retirement. In February, we responded, asking the commission to dismiss the complaint, as it fails to meet the standards of a formal complaint under state law. We also disagreed with the many allegations in the complaint, including the total O&M savings reductions. The commission has ordered that any party wishing to respond to our motion to dismiss, do so by February 22. Earlier this week, we made a joint filing with the other parties in the docket, proposing a procedural schedule, should the commission choose to proceed hearing the complaint. Cost savings aren't the only merger commitment we’ve been focused on. In the fourth quarter, we distributed 60 million of upfront bill credits to customers, as well as, met with regulators in both states to provide merger updates. Along with the updates and stipulating our merger settlement, we opened compliance dockets to track merger related items and commitments like merger savings, service quality metrics, capital plans and the comprehensive study of Kansas rates. As the Kansas legislature session ramped up earlier this year, we received some attention on our rate study I just mentioned. The staff of the Kansas Corporation Commission also produced their own independent Kansas rate store study. Both yielded similar results, which were presented to the Senate and House Committees last month. Now moving to slide 8, I’ll update you on our investment outlook before turning things over to Tony. This morning we introduced our 2019 adjusted earnings guidance range of $2.80 to $3 per share. A $2.90 midpoint is the base of our new target EPS compounded growth, annual growth rate of 5% to 7% through 2023. Commensurate with earnings growth we continued target 60% to 70% dividend payout ratio growing in line with earnings. We believe these targets and our commitments and no rate reviews for the next 4 to 5 years, allowed us to provide an attractive risk adjusted total shareholder return profile. To summarize, 2018 was a good year for Evergy and we're even more excited about 2019. So with that, I’ll now turn the call over to John.
Tony Somma:
Thanks, Terry. Good morning everyone. I'll take you through full year results, review our capital allocation plan and then finish up with the details on our 2019 and beyond outlook. Now turning to slide 10, I’ll start with pro forma results, which excludes non-merger related items and compare the results of that Evergy reformed on January 1 of 2017. Fourth quarter pro forma EPS were $0.08 a share compared to a $0.25 loss for the same period last year. The large increase is due primarily to the revaluation of non-utility deferred income taxes in 2017 as a result of tax reform. This tickup was partially offset by higher O&M and depreciation expense in the quarter. The increase in O&M was driven by 7 million of severance costs due to a voluntary employee exit program, as well as, 19 million of inventory write-offs associated with plant retirements in Missouri. Additionally, we had about 8 million COLI proceeds in the fourth quarter. GAAP earnings for the quarter were $0.07 a share, $0.01 lower than pro forma, where the difference, all coming from merger related expenses. For the quarter, pro forma residential sales were up around 4.6% and commercial sales were up 1.2%. Weather was slightly favorable and we estimated up about $0.02 when compared to normal. Pro forma industrial sales were up about 3.6%. Lower than the same period last year, the decrease was mainly driven by three of our largest industrial customers within a chemical and oil sector, had a multi-week outages within the quarter, some of which were unplanned. Moving on the full year results on slide 11. Full year 2018 pro forma EPS were $2.67 a share compared to $1.73 last year. The primary driver of the year-over-year increase was due to a decrease in tax expense mainly from the revaluation of non-utilities deferred tax liability that I mentioned. Other items contributing to tickup include, increased sales due primarily to favorable weather, which helped by $0.37 compared to last year. $0.19 for Westar’s deferred income tax reevaluation, based on the new composite tax rate upon closing the merger and about $0.03 of other. Providing an offset to these items versus $0.08 of increased depreciation and amortization expense and $0.05 of higher O&M, which includes 23 million of voluntary severance expense and $31 million of plant inventory write-offs. Full-year GAAP results for $2.50 a share, includes merger related costs that aren’t in pro forma results, reflect lower shares outstanding. Also capital includes KCP&L and GMO results for the period post merger close whereas pro forma included them for the full period. On a pro forma basis, 2018 residential sales were 10%, while commercial sales were up 3% compared to last year. Sales were driven by the favorable weather, which when compared to normal, we estimate health about $0.31 for full year pro forma results. Industrial was down about 1.5%, mostly due to some of our largest customers returning to normal levels in 2018, as well as, to the extent of outages that I mentioned in the fourth quarter. Moving to slide 12, I’ll give you an update on a recent financing activities and the progress we’ve made on share repurchase program in the fourth quarter. In November, we entered another accelerated share purchase and continued with open market purchases. For the year, we purchased more than 16 million total shares or a little over a quarter of our two year 60 million share target. We’ve continued to chip away in 2019 still focusing on the same measured approach, $1 cost averaging over time. We expect to have repurchased a total around 19 million shares by early March. We’ve projected a little issue around $1.5 billion of holding company debt in 2019, helped with our rebalancing activities. The ultimate amount of debt will vary based on share price timing and total number shares repurchased. As I mentioned before, the 60 million share by mid 2020 continues to be our target. The cadence on ultimate number of shares of repurchased are subject to market factors in the financial outlook of the company. Now let me give you some details on our guidance on slide 13. As Terry mentioned our 2019 adjusted EPS guidance ranges $2.80 to $3 per share. This range does not include merger related costs for severance and remaining expenses, which totaled $0.10 a share, as we do not expect these transition expenses to be incurred after this year, certainly not in any meaningful amount. Additionally embedded within our guidance is the impact of a major ice storm in January, the worst we’ve experienced since 2002, costing us about $30 million of which over half was O&M. Now here's some of the drivers of our earnings guidance. We expect sales anywhere from flat 50 basis points of growth. Our focus on merger savings will help reduce O&M expense, which we're targeting at $1.2 billion, plus or minus 2%, excluding transition expenses and severance for severance and rebranding. Depreciation and amortization increased $80 million to $90 million compared to our 2018 pro forma amount. Now as far as interest expense goes, we plan to refinance about $700 million in long-term debt maturities at our utilities, plus we’ll issue approximately $1.5 million of holding company debt. Lastly, we’ll continue to make progress on our share repurchase goal and expect the average annual share count to be about 240 million shares plus or minus 2%. Now looking beyond this year, we've updated our capital expenditure forecast for 2019 through 2023. The five year plan is relatively consistent with our previous forecast, totaling over $6 billion of infrastructure investment. Should be noticed, our plan includes viable projects and no placeholders. Should investment opportunity arise outside of our current project list, we would certainly review its merit. We'll continue to evaluate the incremental infrastructure opportunities and provide value to customers like grid modernization and renewables. This CapEx plan does take advantage of ties in Missouri and will continue evaluate opportunities for additional tie of the qualified spend that would deliver value to our customers. The capital plans of course, are previously disclosed 3% to 4% rate base growth using 2017 as a base year. However, by moving the base year to 2018, the capital plan will now drive rate based growth in the 2% to 3% range over the next five years. This investment plan reduces lag while we're in a base rate stay out for the next 4 to 5 years. We are being very intentional with our investments and giving preferences to earnings certainty as we zeroed in on our earnings [indiscernible] returns earning this time. This five year investment cycle balances the interest of shareholders and customers aligning long term sustainability of both stakeholder groups. We've also updated our five year EPS forecast targeting a 5% to 7% CAGRs through 2023, based off the 290 midpoint of 2019 guidance. The new CAGR answers the questions many of you have posed to us as to what the EPS CAGR would be if we updated to start from a more current period rather than stay on 2016 and take it beyond 2021. Additionally, this new trajectory is a result of rebasing on a year, which will include many of the advantages of our merger like the near term impact of the cost reductions and share purchases and now fully reflects the imputed savings that were agreed to on our 2018 regulatory settlement. Having not adjusted the bookends of our guidance range and stayed with the 2016 to 2021 EPS CAGR. We’d still affirm the 6% to 8% CAGR, but would give you – will guide you to the middle or lower end of the range, primarily due to the higher cost of the share repurchase plan. It should be noted, the new EPS CAGR is not linear and we expect a jump going into 2020 above the 7% CAGR. We remain confident in the opportunity in front of us, and continue to believe in our compelling investment thesis that offers a competitive and risk adjusted shareholders return. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Terry.
Terry Bassham:
All right. Thank you for joining us this morning. We'll take questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question or comment comes from a line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Bank of America. Your line is open.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Just to follow-up on those last questions as part of the conversation here. When you say it's not linear and the jump going into 2020 above the 7%. Can you help elaborate a little bit more on 2020 and 2021 and how you’re thinking about that? Obviously, you get the upfront and loaded benefits of the CapEx and the rate saving synergies, as well as, rate cases here. Can you just give us a little bit more detail in 2020 and 2021 versus the later years where obviously CapEx seems to slow? Then maybe let me just jump to it and ask the second question at the same time, how do you think about backfilling CapEx. I mean, it's fairly consistent across the sector that we see sort of CapEx trailing off in the later years and that’s subsequently filled in. How do you think about that right now given the specifics of your rate case timing expectations and the ability to recover or not recover that maybe longer dated CapEx in 2022 and 2023, specifically?
Tony Somma:
This is Tony. As far as the EPS goes, given the share buybacks and the ramp of the synergies, which is consistent with what we said all along, then the near terms earnings ramp would be steeper than the out years and this is consistent even though we rebased it off of a current 2019 adjusted EPS CAGR of midpoint up to $2.90 per share. So, those two items the share repurchases, the ramp up with the synergies will drive the EPS at a steeper rate than when you get to the outyears post 2021. As far as backfilling the CapEx, the investment thesis from the get go with the merger was that we were going to be rate base growth story that both legacy companies had spent large amounts of capital growing rate base and the value of the merger was and combining these two companies and harvesting the efficiencies for both customers and investors. We certainly have opportunities being in the Midwest located in the breadbasket of the wind tunnel, if you will, to invest more. But at this time, you know we would have to look at refreshing our RPS and some other things and we’ve laid out there what we see today as viable projects.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. And let me just clarify what you’ve said, you would still be in the 6% to 8% range, the low-to-mid end of that through the entire period that you had previously?
Tony Somma:
Through 2021. Recall, when we announced the deal, a 6% to 8% CAGR of Westar’s 2016 earnings and we took that out to 2021. And as we were on the road, folks could say, that’s little sale, so we're updating upto a more current period.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
So, that would be for 2021, somewhere between 325 and 341, if you took the low-to-mid end of that range.
Tony Somma:
Yeah. I’m not going to argue with your math. If that’s what you come up with then, yeah.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. All right. I'll leave it there. Thank you very much.
Tony Somma:
You're welcome.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Michael Sullivan from Wolfe Research. Your line is open.
Michael Sullivan:
Yeah, hey, guys. Good morning. Just wanted to follow-up on a couple of those questions and then your comments at the end there. So, I guess, just to start on the 2019. Can you just directly quantify one what the O&M hit was worth. And then the share repurchase costing a little more on an EPS basis and kind of where you would have been otherwise?
Tony Somma:
I’m not so sure I understand your question, Michael. As far as the O&M hit, what do you mean by the O&M hit.
Michael Sullivan:
The storms.
Tony Somma:
Yeah, so the guidance includes us being in the storm. The storm is roughly $30 million and we're still telling the O&M piece of it. It’s probably a little more enhanced.
Michael Sullivan:
Okay. And then what about the repurchase program costing more than you guys would have otherwise thought. How much of a drag is that?
Tony Somma:
So, obviously, when we announced the deal, and you look in testimony filed, we're probably thinking we were going to issue around 1.1 billion, 1.2 billion holdco debt. Tax reform, put a little bit of a cramp on that, as that hurts cash flows and just the overall values of utilities relative to 10 year [ph] they hung in pretty solid. And obviously, it makes the share repurchase program more expensive. But you know it's obviously still accretive and the right thing to do to rebalance the capital structure.
Michael Sullivan:
Okay. And just to kind of put a point on that. As far as relative to your initial expectations and what you've kind of looked at since the merger closed. These are really the only things that have changed, just these storm costs this year and then the repurchase program costing more than you would have otherwise expected.
Tony Somma:
Since we announced, no, there was tax reform. I mean, there was lots of pluses and minuses going. But those are the kind of the bigger one.
Michael Sullivan:
Okay. And then the last one just on 2019 guidance. Can you just explain the tax rate assumptions and why that's so low?
Tony Somma:
The 12% to 14%. It's a couple of factors, you know the legacy Westar has a COLI plant and so I think embedded within the guidance was about 23 million of COLI proceeds. Additionally, we have large quantities of wind resources, which as you know produced production tax credits which would lower your effective tax rate. That's our estimate going into the year.
Michael Sullivan:
Okay thank you.
Tony Somma:
You're welcome.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Greg Gordon from Evercore ISI. Your line is open.
Greg Gordon:
So, sorry that I'm going to beat the dead horse a little more here, but a few questions around the guidance revision. First, just mathematically, if I do use 243 as like the “even if its stale base I get that” but if I use that and I Just do a CAGR to the new guidance range implied by guidance for 2021 that’s about – that's basically 5.5% to 6.5% CAGR off of the 243 number which you know is a $0.05 to $0.25 reduction, a $0.05 to $0.25 reduction in the low end and the high end of the range. So, it's not a rebase guys its significant reduction in expected earnings outcomes that's why the stocks down 6%. So, I just want to understand from your perspective and I know Tony, you just said there are a lot of moving parts. But what are the key things that took $0.25 off the high end of the range. Was it higher assumed share repurchase price. You know higher interest expense because of the tax reform at the parent level. One of the big structural drivers that took the $0.25 off the high end.
Tony Somma:
So, let me first state, you're correct, those are kind of some of the bigger ones, Greg, the tax reform obviously reduced cash flows and when tax reform came out we said this obviously will move us in the range and we never said where we were in the range originally. We said the regional range was 6% to 8% off the 243 and additionally the valuations in our sector, as well as, interest rates rising its making the share repurchase program more expensive, but it’s still accretive and the right thing to do to rebalance the balance sheet.
Greg Gordon:
Okay. But you still expect as we're thinking about modeling here that a combination of the rate settlements. And your ability to harvest synergies would allow you to earn at or near your authorized returns across the different regulated business units and should we model accordingly?
Tony Somma:
Yes and recall we never said the thesis was overrunning. The thesis was earning in our allowed returns and saying there [ph]. And Greg, we're on track with our synergy expectations and we expect earned – that are allowed returns we’ve said before, we don't really expect to over earn. But we expect to be able to allow earn on allowed returns.
Greg Gordon:
Right. Okay. So, we need to contemplate in our models earning at the authorized returns. And really the leakage here in the growth comes around really the financing costs and the impact of tax reform and all that. How that sort of flows through your financial outcomes is that a fair summary?
Tony Somma:
Yeah. Fair summary, the earnings power of the company is 14.2 billion of rate base that we have to date, right. That's what rates are set at and then harvesting the synergies going forward.
Greg Gordon:
Okay. Is there anything in the articulated range built in for potentially earning back the rate credits in Kansas or getting or into the sharing? Or if you were to be able to harvest a little bit of higher earned ROE above your authorized through executing and getting into the sharing bands like where would that put you inside this range?
Tony Somma:
You’re asking contemplating earning above on the bands in Kansas, which would kick in the sharing mechanism, I’m understanding it, right?
Greg Gordon:
Yeah, I'm basically saying like if I assume the midpoint is that you're running – is the midpoint that you're earnings at your authorized returns, I mean, because you do have. And I know that you're telling us don't assume we over-earn, assume we just earn in authorized returns. But you have the ability to harvest more synergies and potentially flow back to customer’s significant incremental benefits. And then keep something for shareholders, is that at all contemplated in the guidance range?
Tony Somma:
Well, it’s certainly is possible, Greg, but there's a lot of pluses and minuses that will go into a forecast, particularly going out five years and the whole one thing constant. We generally avoid that, again, the thesis behind the merger is us earning our allowed returns and staying there. And if we do earn above those in Kansas and there's a mechanism in place that we could share those and that would obviously help us on the EPS CAGR. Yeah, I mean to your point, I think, if I understand, what you're saying is if we were earnings towards the top end or even into the sharing ranges that would push us up in the range of earnings guide. Is that kind of what you're suggesting?
Greg Gordon:
Yes, yes. I'm just asking whether the range, contemplates the ability to do that or whether if you achieved that. It would be about the range, but you're just saying that it would just push you up inside the range.
Tony Somma:
Yeah, yeah.
Greg Gordon:
Okay. I’m taking up too much time on Q&A guys. I'll go to the back of the queue. Thanks.
Tony Somma:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from a line of Michael Lapides from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Michael Lapides:
Hey guys, thanks for taking my question. Real quick on the docket in Missouri that OPC and the industrials follow. Can you just talk to us about how that process will work from here?
Tony Somma:
Yeah, we’ve filed a motion to dismiss, kind of, based on our prior practice where we've asked for accounting orders on different things that we don't believe these – the request meets the standard. So, the commissions set up online for other folks to comment on that issue. We’ll either get a ruling yea or nay on a dismissal and if it's not – if it is dismissed, obviously we’re off and running. If it’s not dismissed then we would work with the parties and the commission staff ultimately to establish a timeframe for hearings and briefing and all that kind of stuff. And that could run, it could run through the summer if those processes don't move extremely quickly.
Michael Lapides:
Or what the complainants basically seeking is to – for customers to get the economic benefit of the O&M savings from the plant retirements. Was that regionally embedded in as part of the merger agreement? Or is what they're seeking that the retirement benefit is actually greater than what was originally disclosed during the merger process?
Terry Bassham:
No, no, it’s the former. You know, again we were very transparent about all these business matters. While we were doing our negotiations, so they were well aware this was happening. Their position is even though it occurred after the test year and after the effect of new rates, they want those savings accounted for and look back later. I will say that even in the context of that request, we don't believe their numbers are right. They just kind of assume every dollar allocated to the plant goes away and some of those employees were reassigned other things. So, the less – the total number they’ve alleged is higher than we believe. But it’s the former, not the latter of your question.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Okay. And then one question just on the merger of savings and cost savings in general. Do you look at it and think there is upside to the original merger or cost savings that you laid out? And if so, what areas like if I were to go back to Steve Busser’s testimony during the merger process. What area or what bucket within the various buckets of costs savings, do you think the greatest opportunities except for you guys?
Terry Bassham:
I don't think we really identified a lot of upside that where we've already outlined and what was in Steve Busser’s testimony. Obviously, every time you make an estimate like that you drive to your goal and hope that you can find others. But I would say this early in the process, we are implementing the charters and the plans that we put in place to achieve those targets. And then we would hope over time we find more, but I wouldn’t say at this point we've identified any additional opportunities that are material.
Tony Somma:
I think we are finding some obviously. We’re consolidating the back office [indiscernible].
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Okay. Last one and I know you've gotten like gazillion questions on kind of the earnings growth. Is it safe to assume you're above the 5% to 7% percent just in 2020? Or do you think that's a 2020 and 2021 as well that you're above that range, and therefore you’d obviously mathematically have to be at the plant probably closer what your rate base growth would be in like 2022 and 2023?
Terry Bassham:
So, in the near term obviously, the savings ramp up and the share repurchases Mike, will drive the ramp up, from 2019 to 2020. I haven’t looked at 2020 to 2021. You know we’re not giving 2020 guidance today or 2021 guidance, but we are telling you that the five year EPS CAGR is not linear and it's going to ramp up in the early years.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Thank you guys. Much appreciated.
Terry Bassham:
You're welcome.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from a line of Ali Agha from SunTrust. Your line is open.
Ali Agha:
Thank you. Good morning.
Terry Bassham:
Good morning. Tony, I just wanted to clarify, a comment you’ve already made, just to make sure I'm understanding it right, first off, coming back to the group rate outlook. So, once the share buyback impacts a fully factored in, which as you say are 2020 and 2021. Then we should look at the growth rate beyond that really as a function of rate based growth, since you're already earning your authorized returns, presumably, there’s not that much more upside from an earned ROE basis. So, is rate based growth then a good proxy once the share buyback plan is fully factored in?
Tony Somma:
Well, it’s going to depend, right, it’s going to depend on numerous factors. What we're saying today is the ramp up is happening here early because of the share repurchases and the merger fixes [ph] that you outlined. But it won't be the same slope of the line, if you will, probably once you get past 2021.
Terry Bassham:
Yeah and just to be clear on the issue. I mean, we've not tried to place placeholders in later years that will then work to necessarily to drive a greater growth rate. That doesn't mean that we don't have other opportunities, and as we began to move towards the end of our time period for a freeze and there's a test year involved and we're working towards what is our future generation and need and plans that we won’t have additional CapEx opportunities. What we haven't done is suggest to you that we’re going work to a blind target in the later years. Just increasing growth rate. We’re trying to be very transparent here.
Ali Agha:
Okay. And then on the share buyback again, I wanted to clarify Tony your comment. So, you had bought back 16 million shares through the end of the year. And did I hear it right that based on the accelerated and other programs that by early March that 16 million would become 19 million. So in other words another 3 million would have been bought by early march. Did I hear that right?
Tony Somma:
That's correct.
Ali Agha:
So, that would imply, I mean, if I just look at the run rate from the last three months of the fourth quarter, which was about 8 million or so, that would be a pretty sizeable slowdown in your buyback between Jan 1 and early March. Any reason for that and as suggested given the pullback in your stock price. I mean, is there a motivation to potentially accelerate this and maybe do it before mid 2020?
Tony Somma:
Well, there’s a potential there, but we'll have to see, we want to keep our options available and we've kind of been pretty transparent that we prefer the dollar cost average over time. If we think evaluation and utilities are cheap and our stock is cheap, then yeah naturally we’d like to step on the gas a little bit more.
Ali Agha:
Okay, and then lastly also clarifying this point you made about the cost of the buyback is going up and now you're looking at issuing 1.5 billion of debt, previously it was about 1.1 billion, 1.2 billion. Also for modeling purposes, where should we assume that debt needs to be issued? Is that also happening now earlier than expected in the context of how 2019 numbers maybe shipping up that inflow expense [ph] maybe also higher because the debt needs to be issued a bit earlier as well.
Tony Somma:
Yeah, so clearly the debt and the associated interest would put pressure on our earning. It depends on the cadence of the share repurchase as to when we would issue that debt. It would be sometime later this year third quarter, so.
Ali Agha:
So, it would be sort of [indiscernible] for modeling purposes, its third or fourth quarter?
Tony Somma:
Yeah.
Ali Agha:
Okay. Thank you. Appreciate that.
Tony Somma:
You’re welcome.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Paul Ridzon from KeyBanc. You line is open.
Paul Ridzon:
Good morning.
Tony Somma:
Good morning.
Paul Ridzon:
Just a quick question, just if you could review the interplay of the rate freeze and opportunities under Senate Bill 564, kind of, how we should be thinking about that? Are you somehow constrained for opportunities because of the rate freeze?
Terry Bassham:
You're talking about Missouri 3 piece, right?
Paul Ridzon:
Yes.
Terry Bassham:
The constraint is in the bill itself and remember in Missouri, there's a cap there. Remember, Missouri, we don't have a technical rate freeze on the merger itself, it's related to the bill. So, there's no additional constraint from merger perspective. That was the settlement part of the Kansas deal. Did that make sense?
Paul Ridzon:
Yes, yes. Thank you for the clarification.
Terry Bassham:
Yeah.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Charles Fishman from Morningstar Research. Your line is open.
Charles Fishman:
Good morning. Just one question, merger savings, slide 20. That does not include the 200 million of total of merger savings from the closing of Montrose and Sibley, is that correct?
Tony Somma:
Good morning. This is Tony, Charles, yes, that's correct.
Charles Fishman:
So that that is – I guess, what keeps that because you controlled it, you’ve already closed those plans. What keeps that 200 million going from potential to realized?
Tony Somma:
I'm not sure, I understand the question.
Terry Bassham:
Yeah, let me say – let me get it out loud and maybe just help answer the question. Remember, that ultimately the closing of the plants that you just mentioned for KCP&L were already announced and they weren't merger savings. So, those aren’t considered merger saving for the purposes of that, merger saving discussion. It was the closing on the Westar side that spent those closings up and therefore considered merger savings. Does that make sense?
Charles Fishman:
Yeah, okay, but I mean, I guess, the 200 million has been baked into your guidance the obviously.
Terry Bassham:
Yeah, it is.
Tony Somma:
Yeah, the savings is associated with shutting the plants down is all part of our expectation going forward. Absolutely.
Charles Fishman:
Okay. So, I could have done a better job of asking the question. That's all I had. Thank you.
Tony Somma:
You’re welcome.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Paul Patterson from Glenrock Associates. Your line is open.
Paul Patterson:
Hey, good morning.
Tony Somma:
Good morning.
Paul Patterson:
So, just back on the complaint case in Missouri. What is the cost savings, I mean, you mentioned that you guys think it's less than what these guys are suggesting. Could you tell us what you think it is?
Tony Somma:
So, I think they and they’re pleading, they said 22 million – 27 million. I’d say, we probably think it's half or a little more that actually could be related to specific cost. Again you take them out, so it'd just be allocated to that and then where actual outcomes work in employees. So, I don't know that we've quantify the exact number –
Paul Patterson:
Roughly, about half or maybe a little bit more than that number.
Tony Somma:
Yeah.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. And then, and your, guidance basically assumes that basically that you guys have, as you guys have indicated before, it's your position that basically, this is already announced and therefore, should not be called back or anything like that. Is that correct?
Tony Somma:
And not just that, but in past years we have sought accounting orders for costs such as taxes and other things, pretty straight forward that we ask to be accounted for and it was determined pretty clearly and the parties involved here that are asking for this argued that they were not extraordinary, it should be and this [indiscernible] very similar, if not exact kinds of costs. So, we think it's pretty clear on where the commission in past cases, that we should not be provided for account one.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. Understood. Then the Kansas legislative study, could you comment a little bit further on that in terms of this issue of competitive rates. And where you see, if you see anything happening with respect to the legislature or the KCC or whatever regarding this topic, if you follow this?
Terry Bassham:
Yeah, so we are in lockstep with the commission staff. We've actually justified on one of the bills early on. We and the staff are in agreement. We provided our rate study and the commission staff provided theirs that we agreed to provide and they were very similar. The bills have been filed now cover a range of things, but the one specifically on the rate study does more than just ask for a study. What it does is an attempt to change the law that would address how you look at those things. And we think that's clearly not the intent of the rate study language. And again the commission staff agrees with us. So, I think in the end what we expect to come out of the discussion is that we would have an additional rate study around, in particular, larger customers that we would have spend the next year or two, if they don't have, it all comes out. Looking at how we compare to other regional costs. This is a reminder; 10 years ago we were well below the national average and currently we’re right at about the national average, after about 10 years of both EPA and infrastructure spend. It speaks exactly to while we've done the merger and exactly what we’ve agreed to process over the next 4 or 5 years without waiting [ph].
Paul Patterson:
Okay. And then, with respect to the rate base growth and it being more modest perhaps than other areas other companies. I guess, if you could – is there any potential for opportunities with respect to perhaps that you might be exploring that would be in addition to your rate base growth that that could be seen as potentially reducing operating costs or fuel costs or what have you. Is there any opportunity that you guys are exploring in that? And how much that impacts your rate base growth other than what you guys are providing here.
Tony Somma:
So, this is Tony. Good morning. We definitely say where the Saudi Arabia went and so there's always opportunities for renewable. In fact, many of our customers like go greener and those would be something that we would look at – we'd be providing more renewable resources to our customers.
Terry Bassham:
Now in the near term, we've got a very specific plan, obviously we talked about that later years we're always looking opportunities as Tony mentioned. Kind of opportunity you talked about you know we haven’t put anything in the forecast that shows a bucket of opportunity dollars, instead we’ll be working and analyze as we go in. We are updating investors as we become more firm in plans, as we're providing our fees and other things to our commission.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. Great. Thanks a lot.
Terry Bassham:
Yeah.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Shar Pourreza from Guggenheim Partners. Your line is open.
Shar Pourreza:
Hey, guys.
Tony Somma:
Good morning.
Shar Pourreza:
Sorry to hop a few minutes late. On sort of the Sibley complaint, you don't have an outcome or a potential outcome in that case in your outlook, correct?
Terry Bassham:
Well, that's soon as there's no order granting that – defer all those costs that they remain, as we close the last rate case.
Shar Pourreza:
Got it. Okay. And then just obviously, this been hit on way too much, but the growth profile is obviously swing [ph] a little bit, right. So, you've got the front-end loaded, the back-end somewhat tepid, especially as you guys sort of wait to file rate cases. Can you – I know you've talked about wind and renewables, but clearly there is capital spending that’s sort of been withheld, while you've gone through this entire process. I'm curious you know, as you think about the next wave of rate cases. Outside of the incremental items around renewables, is there any other sort of capital opportunities you see on the base business. And then, it's likely going to be somewhat of a healthy ask in the various states and obviously, your synergies and efficiencies are helping. What sort of is the outlook for rates when you sort of go through this next wave of rate cases? And curious, if the profile of that growth can reemerge closer to what people's past expectations were, when you file for a new set of proceedings.
Terry Bassham:
Well, certainly as we get closer to our past year work that will ultimately lead to rate cases. We’ll have a better feel for you know what kind of increases there are. Also be working to streamline and manage our O&M kind of across. Yeah, the idea of been able to spend more on rate base and less so under this is strategy. But as we get closer to that we’ll certainly and are now looking at opportunities that customers may want from a renewable perspective. And other than generation, yes, we are a very reliable T&D system and so opportunities from both the transmission and distribution perspective on an ongoing basis, whether it’d be grid modernization or just stability of the system are both opportunities that continue.
Shar Pourreza:
And so when you go through that revisit of that capital program and whether it's renewables or your base spending needs. Do you guys feel like you've got enough efficiencies out there, as they're building to mitigate sort of a massive amount of rate inflation.
Terry Bassham:
Yeah, I mean I think if I understand your question, I mean, the notion would be we think our system is in good shape. We think we have opportunities from both, as we have or recently with coal plants retiring and opportunities with wind that we can continue that transition of being a tier 1 type T&D company, with more and more clean renewable type energy, without having to raise rates dramatically, but continue to give us the ability to invest in our system.
Shar Pourreza:
Yep, that's sort of what I was trying to get at. Okay, great thanks guys.
Terry Bassham:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Ashar Khan from Visium.
Ashar Khan:
Most of my questions have been answered. Can I just ask you, can you share with us what the synergy levels are say increased from 2019 to 2020. Is there anything you can provide on guidance on that, how their synergies improved year-over-year from 2019 to 2020 and 2021. Is there anything you can provide?
Tony Somma:
Yeah. Its slide 20, in the deck in 2019, there's a target of about 110 million. In 2020, it ramps up to 145 million and this would exclude, obviously, the power plant savings that we talked about earlier.
Ashar Khan:
And so I can just take the delta in between those and after-taxes, at what tax rate, Tony?
Tony Somma:
25% or lower. All in.
Ashar Khan:
Okay. So, I can just take the delta and after-tax 25% and that would be incremental year-over-year earnings, right.
Terry Bassham:
Or they’ve been equal. Obviously, we got other happen and – but that would be the relationship to those costs.
Ashar Khan:
Okay, okay. Thank you so much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Andrew Levi from ExodusPoint. Your line is open.
Andrew Levi:
Hi, good morning guys.
Terry Bassham:
Good morning, Andy.
Andrew Levi:
How are you?
Terry Bassham:
Good. Good.
Andrew Levi:
Just two questions. First one, I just want to make sure I heard correctly or maybe I misinterpreted it, just on the stock buyback itself, you're not deviated at all from the amounts dollar wise. So, you're buying back or are you because of what you said about tax reform.
Terry Bassham:
The target is still $60 million. No change in plan.
Andrew Levi:
Okay. Just want to make sure, that didn’t know if I heard correctly. And then just the other thing too so, you know obviously, we've met several times, so – in the last couple of months. So, basically you're saying is in the outer years, so you're saying there's 2%, 3% rate based growth, based on your 2019 studies. However, if in time, as you kind of get through this stock buyback and you kind of look at opportunities in the future that rate base/CapEx numbers in the outer yours should grow or you're not saying that?
Tony Somma:
There’s certainly opportunity there. Obviously, what we’re describing is what's in our guidance. But as we move through that time period, we move towards our upcoming rate cases and we continue to work on issues such as customer growth and integrated resource planning. Yeah, we’d expect there’d be opportunities to evaluate opportunities.
Andrew Levi:
Okay. And that’s probably is what I’d like to probably see that in like the 2020 timeframe or 2021 or –?
Tony Somma:
Yeah, I mean –
Andrew Levi:
Not the actual dollars that we will get that kind of update.
Tony Somma:
Yeah, we'll continue to update you along the way as we go with the plan and again we're not going to placeholders to work towards, we're going to put in what we're working on at the time and be transparent about that.
Andrew Levi:
Okay. That's terrific. Thank you. Have a great weekend.
Tony Somma:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question or comments comes from the line of Kevin Fallon from Citadel. Your line is open.
Kevin Fallon:
I just wanted to clarify that when you guys are looking at the rate base rolling forward, you’re your assumption is you're earning your authorized on your actual current year rate base, correct?
Terry Bassham:
Well, there’s a lot of pluses and minuses, but yeah, that's the whole idea that the merger savings will hopefully offset whatever spend there is on the capital side.
Kevin Fallon:
Okay. But the base is moving higher.
Terry Bassham:
I understand you want to make a very precise, but there's a lot of plus and minuses that go on with the forecast and a lot of levers that moves.
Kevin Fallon:
No, no, that that I can definitely appreciate. I just want to make sure that that as the rebate is moving up 2% to 3% that your opportunity set and your target is to have burn on that that growing rate base.
Terry Bassham:
Yes.
Kevin Fallon:
Okay. Exactly. The other thing just in terms of query on the back end, in terms of the CapEx for all these other things like wind and grid mod and whatnot. What is it that you need to wait for to start to have a like line of sight to be able to update those plans? Like do you have like PPA's rolling off or is there something under the legislation in Missouri? What drives the timing in terms of updating that?
Terry Bassham:
Well, it's traditional utility planning, on the plan where we’ve just started the merger and the strategy is build our earn on our spend without increasing rates for customers, that’s what we’ve agreed for the near term, not have rate increases. As we work through our planning for the test year and hopefully those cases will have an update on what's happening with our – different units we’re working with customers on their needs and wants around additional wind and opportunities for wind, which might just simply reduce overall costs, which we've done in the past. It gives the opportunity at that point to look at whether we want our own those in rate base or whether we want to have PPAs. Remember that in the past, both companies tended to lean on PPAs because from a capital perspective we were spending on environmental and other things and that need additional CapEx, a rate base spend. The only other kind of limitation might be is piece - as we look at piece on Missouri side. There’s opportunity there, but there’s also limits in the legislation itself and we’ll you know be watching that as well.
Kevin Fallon:
Just this follow-up, is there a certain timeframe in terms of when you have these PPA's rolling off. Is it a kind of a front – like when you look at the 2023 in your deck is that the timeframe where you start to have PPA's rolling off or that kind of further out in the in the future.
Tony Somma:
This is Tony, it’d be further out. I think both legacy companies probably put wind on those 7 or 8 timeframe their own when resources we put on some more, but and those are 20 year PPAs.
Kevin Fallon:
Okay. Okay, that's very helpful thank you.
Tony Somma:
You’re welcome.
Operator:
Thank you. We have a follow-up question from Ali Agha from Suntrust. Your line is open.
Ali Agha:
Thanks. Just a very quick one, coming back to the Sibley complaint, I know Terry you mentioned that the commission has asked for comments to your filing for dismissal today. But just given that schedule, when would you expect the commission to rule whether to dismiss this or not.
Tony Somma:
Yeah like put a deadline for filing comments/for against I guess, with comments around it. They’re relatively a deadline around when the commission would make a decision. Once they get all in, they'll review everybody as said and it will depend on kind of of a follower meeting schedule, which happens every – usually every week. But until they put it on the docket and press Company, we wouldn't know how could be that would happen.
Ali Agha:
Understood, within the weeks or months, I mean, just a rough chance.
Tony Somma:
It’d be probably weeks on the you know move forward, don't report and then if they don't dismiss, case probably months in terms of how to process complaint guys.
Ali Agha:
Got it. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. We have a follow-up question from Mr. Paul Ridzon, KeyBanc. Your line is open.
Paul Ridzon:
Just can you review kind of what the potential blackouts are on the buy back and could you agent be there today taking advantage of this weakness?
Terry Bassham:
So, as we’ve said before the intent is to have the infrastructure in place to be able to buy back shares through blackout periods.
Ali Agha:
Then what does guidance contemplate as far as the savings from the plant closings is that, embedded in danger or is that upside.
Terry Bassham:
It is embedded in our guidance.
Ali Agha:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. I'm showing no additional questions in the queue at this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Mr. Terry for any closing remarks.
Terry Bassham:
Okay, thank you, Howard and thank you everybody for joining the call this morning. I know we've got a lot of information we provided today and we appreciate you being on a call and participate speak. Have a good weekend. Thank you.
Operator:
Ladies and gentleman, thank you for participating in today's conference. This concludes the program. You may now disconnect. Everyone have a wonderful day.
Executives:
Lori Wright – Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer Terry Bassham – President and Chief Executive Officer Tony Somma – Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Ali Agha – SunTrust Nicholas Campanella – Bank of America Merrill Lynch Paul Ridzon – KeyBanc Steve Fleishman – Wolfe Research. Ashar Khan – Viridian Paul Patterson – Glenrock
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Evergy, Inc. Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today’s conference, You may begin.
Lori Wright:
Thank you, Ashley. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Evergy’s Third Quarter Call. Thank you for joining us this morning. Today’s discussion will include forward-looking information on Slide 2 and the disclosure in our SEC filings containing list of some of the factors that could cause future results to differ materially from our expectations. We issued our third quarter 2018 earnings release and 10-Q after market close yesterday. These items are available, along with today’s webcast slides and supplemental financial information for the quarter on the main page of our website at evergyinc.com. On the call today, we have Terry Bassham, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Tony Somma, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Other members of the management team are with us and will be available during the question-and-answer portion of the call. As summarized on Slide 3, Terry will provide a business update, including the latest information on our regulatory and merger priorities. Tony will then offer details on our financial results and provide an update on our share repurchases. With that, I’ll hand the call to Terry.
Terry Bassham:
Thanks, Lori, and good morning, everybody. I’ll start on Page 5. Last night, we reported third quarter GAAP EPS of $1.32 and pro forma EPS of $1.34, which excludes nonrecurring merger-related expenses. Tony will provide you more details in a bit, but I will say the team continues to perform well and deliver solid financial and operational results, while also executing on our integration plans. We continue to focus on the execution of the merger plan, which includes capturing merger savings, delivering on a busy regulatory calendar and rebalancing our capital structure. Last and certainly, not least, is the continued integration of our workforce and cultures. Our team is working well together as we make progress on the successful execution of our plan. We’re still targeting net merger savings of $30 million in 2018 and $110 million in 2019. Our achieved merger savings remain on track for the year. We realized savings in several categories, including reduced labor cost and more efficient procurement as we now have a scale of a larger company. We have begun back office IT system consolidation efforts, which includes a series of enterprise large projects, savings associated with combining systems will contribute toward reaching merger savings targets as they wrap up over the next couple of years. Moving on to Slide 6, I’ll give you the latest on our regulatory proceedings. At the beginning of the year, we were looking at an active regulatory calendar that included a merger docket and rate reviews in each of our 4 jurisdictions. While a formidable task our teams focus nevertheless, was to reach constructive settlements in each docket. The successful settlement in our merger docket jumpstarted many diligent and constructive conversations with stakeholders and the rate reviews. We used the merger settlement momentum to achieve rate review settlements in each jurisdiction, going 4 for 4 across Kansas and Missouri. Although we still need a commission order in one of the dockets, we are happy we’ve been able to reach settlements with most parties in these cases. This speaks to the constructive regulatory relationships that currently exist in both Kansas and Missouri. So let me give you a little detail on the rate review settlements. I’ll start with Westar. In July, we reached agreement with interveners calling for a $66 million revenue decrease with an ROE of 9.3% and an equity layer of approximately 51.5%. It also included $74 million of annual tax reform benefits for customers and $23 million merger savings benefits. In September, the Kansas Corporation Commission accepted the settlement and rates became effective. Staying in Kansas and moving over to KCP&L, in mid-October, we reached a unanimous settlement that calls for an annual revenue decrease of $11 million. It also includes a 9.3% ROE and an equity ratio of 49.1%. Tax reform benefits were reflected in rates at approximately $37 million annually, along with merger benefits of about $7 million. Unanimous nature of the settlement allowed for a truncated evidence rehearing. We are now waiting on commission approval, which we expect in late December. Once the new KCPL rates become effective, the 5-year base rates payout period will start for both Westar and KCPL customers and fulfills our commitment made as part of the merger settlement agreement. Switching over to Missouri, where our rate reviews for KCPL and GMO are combined into a single docket. Similar to the Kansas cases, we reached agreement with intervenors, allowing us to file the settlement in mid-September. It’s a black box settlement, so it doesn’t outline an ROE or equity ratio. The KCPL case calls for annual revenue decrease of $21 million, including annual tax reform benefits of $53 million. GMO case calls for a decrease of $24 million and includes annual tax reform benefits of $39 million. Last week, the Missouri Public Service Commission accepted the settlement and rates will be effective no later than December 6. Not only do these settlements create certainty for the next 4 to 5 years, they also modernize rate design and offerings to our customers. We will now have green tariffs of renewable writers in each of our state jurisdictions that will allow us to offer additional renewables to all customers and our largest customers and the passion they prefer. It’s important not only to meet customers needs but also continues our momentum in transforming to a cleaner energy mix. Moving to a few legislative topics. As you know, we work with stakeholders in Missouri Legislation to pass Senate Bill 564 earlier this year. This new law modernizes the regulatory framework in the state, allowing for rate stability provisions for customers and improve return potential for shareholders, a true win-win for all involved. We expect to elect the plan in service accounting, our PISA feature of this bill in the near future, and we’re still evaluating mechanics and qualifying criteria for investments. So confident this will allow us to continue spending at appropriate levels in the state, yet reduce much of the regulatory lag that we’ve experienced historically. What you shouldn’t expect, however, is for us to announce a large incremental investment plan or for a significant jurisdictional reallocation of capital, which is currently balanced across our jurisdictions. PISA, coupled with merger savings should allow us to more consistently earn our allowed returns in Missouri. We have an improved opportunity to earn allowed returns as we are rebasing property taxes in the current rate reviews and transmission costs have continued to flat. These 2 factors should also help reduce the lag that we’ve experienced in previous years. Now turning to Slide 7, I’ll touch on the latest in our effort to diversify our generation portfolio. As part of our long-term sustainability strategy, we’ve been focusing on diversifying our generation portfolio, which results in a lower cost fleet and improved emissions profile. A large part of that strategy is retiring traditional fossil plants as they approach the end of their useful life. We’ve already shut down a few plants this year, and altogether, by the end of the year, we will shut down 800 megawatts of coal, 700 megawatts of natural gas. At our Westar operating company, on October 1, we shut down Tecumseh Energy Center, a small coal plant; and then on November 1, we retired the gas steam units at the Murray Gill and Gordon Evans energy centers. The merger allows us to shut down these plants that otherwise would have continued to run. So we’ve build the cost savings associated with those into our target merger savings. For the larger combined generation portfolio, we can now meet our capacity obligation without them and given how attractive wind energy is in our part of the country, we can deliver cheaper, cleaner energy from newer wind farms. Moving to KCP&L, coal units at the Sibley and Montréal plants remain on track to be retired by the end of the year. We’ll experience cost savings from these plants as well, but since they were scheduled to shut down absent the merger, the cost savings were not included in our targeted merger savings. Nonetheless, the projected O&M reduction from these will be around $200 million cumulatively over the next 5 years. All of the plants have served our customers well for many years. They were 1950s and 1960s vintage units that lasted well past original expectations. These retirements make perfect business sense. And they also enable a lower carbon future. Since 2010, we have dramatically shifted our generation portfolio and over 50% coal now favoring a much more sustainable mix. This paves the way for a lower carbon future. By 2020, we will have shut down over 2,200 megawatts end-of-life fossil generation, grown our wind portfolio to over 3,800 megawatts and reduced our carbon emissions by more than 40%. You can see a full list of our sustainable initiatives in our recently published environmental, social and governance report, which can be found under the Sustainability section of our investor relations website. This is part of our effort to support the broad industry and providing investor with uniform and consistent ESG data, utilizing the EEI template and guidelines. Before turning the call over to Tony, let me point out some additional good news. Last night, we raised the dividend on an indicated annualized rate of $1.90 per share. This increase comes just 5 months after the closing the merger, reflecting our board’s confidence in our business plan and their understanding of the importance of dividends and producing an attractive total return. Although dividend is something the Board looks at quarterly, we expect future annual updates to occur each fall. With that, I’ll now turn the call over to Tony.
Tony Somma:
Thanks, Terry, and good morning, everyone. Turning to Slide 9 of the presentation, I’ll start with the results. Similar to last quarter, I’ll focus primarily on pro forma results, which exclude nonrecurring merger-related items and paired results as if Evergy reformed on January 1, 2017. The good news is, as we move further away from the transaction close, we should have less merger-related items and eventually more apples-to-apples comparison for GAAP results. Third quarter pro forma EPS were $1.34 compared to $1.19 for the third quarter last year. Drivers included increased sales, due primarily to warmer weather, which we estimate helped about $0.11; $0.09 related to tax reform, which represents the difference in our refund obligation rates and actual results of operations; $0.03 of increased O&M due to about $16 million of voluntary severance expenses, which costed us about $0.04; and $0.02 of other costs, including increased depreciation expense and ongoing annual bill credits in Kansas, partially offset by lower number of shares outstanding. GAAP earnings were $1.32 a share or $0.02 lower than pro forma due to merger-related expenses. Combined company retail sales were up about 1.5%, primarily due to the favorable weather, which we estimate helped by $0.06 compared to normal. Residential and commercial sales were both up 2% and 1.5%, respectively. Industrial sales were down about 1%, due primarily to a large low-margin chemical manufacturing customer returning to normal production levels after having a banner on 2017. Absent this one customer, the balance of industrial sales were up over 1%. Moving onto year-to-date results on Slide 10. Year-to-date, pro forma EPS were $2.55 compared to $2 last year. Some of the drivers include $0.36 from higher sales due primarily to the favorable weather, $0.19 for Westar’s deferred income tax reevaluation based on the new composite tax rate, $0.08 related to the impact from tax reform, $0.05 of higher O&M, which include – which includes voluntary severance expense already mentioned as well as plant inventory write-offs from earlier in the year, and $0.03 of other costs, including increased depreciation expense and ongoing annual bill credits in Kansas. Year-to-date, GAAP results were $2.61 a share and include merger-related costs that are in the pro forma results and reflect lower average shares outstanding. Also, GAAP includes KCPL and GMO results for the period post-merger close, whereas pro forma includes them for the full period. In the appendix, we’ve included a reconciliation of GAAP to pro forma to further explain our results. For the combined company, year-to-date residential commercial sales were up 11% and 4%, respectively, compared to the same period last year. The increased sales were driven mostly by favorable weather, which when compared to normal we estimate were a benefit of about $0.29 to year-to-date pro forma results. Industrial sales were down about 1%, again mostly due to a large low-margin customer I referenced earlier. The economy in our service territory is moving along quite nicely. Unemployment rates throughout our service territory decreased to about 3.3%, staying below the national average of 3.7%. We’re seeing continued expansion in healthcare and business services, causing office vacancies to continue to fall. Industrials have remained steady and growth is showing up in aircraft and metal fabrication sectors. We’ve now had 30 consecutive quarters of customer growth and continue to project long-term weather-normalized demand growth of flat to 50 basis points. Moving on to Slide 11, I’ll give you an update on our recent financing activities. At merger close, we had $1.25 million of cash on the balance sheet, pushing our equity ratio to 59%. As part of our effort to rebalance the capital structure, we initiated share repurchase programs in August. As we discussed in the past, we’re targeting to repurchase roughly 60 million shares by midyear 2020. This will result in a consolidated capital structure, reflecting that of a traditional utility at approximately 50% debt and 50% equity. If you recall on August, I mentioned that we are approaching the buyback at a deliberate and steady pace, focusing on a combination of open market repurchases and accelerated share repurchases. As you can see on the slide, we did just that, retiring almost 7 million shares in the quarter by only being in the market during the second half of the quarter. We expect upon the completion of ASR this month, the total to be around 9.5 million shares or just shy of 16% of the $60 million share repurchase goal. We expect to keep the same measured approach, dollar cost averaging over time, keeping our foot on the gas and telling how far we’ve driven each quarter. We used $486 million of cash in the quarter to repurchase shares. As we move down the road, we’ll burn through the cash and then issue holding company debt to continue repurchase and maintain a balance capital structure. From a timing perspective, we expect this to begin sometime after the first of the year and project around $1.5 billion of holding company debt to be issued throughout the duration of the repurchase programs. The amount and timing could vary and will ultimately be determined by share price and the cadence of repurchases. This financing plan consists of what we showed the rating agencies earlier this year resulted in debt metrics that put us solidly in the range of our current credit ratings. Turning now to other financing activity, we recently executed a new $2.5 billion master credit facility. This aggregate amount is a $0.25 billion more than the stand-alone facilities at which it replace. The larger capacity increases our liquidity and provides more flexibility as we optimize our financing plans. The agreement also includes adjustable supplement features that will allow us to better manage our capital structure at each entity. I will wrap up on Slide 12 before handing it back to Terry. In summary, our growth strategy has 3 major drivers. Our recent successful regulatory outcomes, our execution to achieve promised merger efficiencies and our share repurchases. We made progress on all 3 fronts. Our active 2018 regulatory calendar is in the home stretch, and once we receive our final approval, we should have very little regulatory overhang for the next few years, which provides increased certainty to both customers and shareholders. We’ve initiated our share repurchases and are executing our merger saving across our businesses. These items plus ongoing organic growth plans support our targeted 6% to 8% EPS growth. As Terry mentioned earlier, we just increased the dividend to an indicated annualized $1.90 a share. We plan to do it along with earnings while targeting a 60% to 70% payout ratio. Consistent with this cadence, we have previously stated that we’ll issue 2019 guidance and the updated projections on our year-end call in February. With that, I’ll turn the call back over to Terry.
Terry Bassham:
Okay, Tony. Thank you. And we’ll take questions now from callers.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And your first question comes from the line of Ali Agha with SunTrust. Your line is now open.
Ali Agha:
Thank you, good morning. First question, I just wanted to be clear on the buyback that has happened. So as you mentioned that once you close the final piece of the ASR, you would have purchased 9.5 million shares. Acquainted to that, have you spent $486 million to repurchase 9.5 million shares, is that the math?
Tony Somma:
Roughly. There are some ongoing open market purchases, but the ASR that we disclosed in the Q is around $450 million and those shares were done via 2 separate ASRs and there’s one remaining yet to be closed.
Ali Agha:
Right. But the 9.5 million shares, just to be clear, Tony, is the completion of the ASR and the open markets that you disclosed so far or are there other open markets that get you to the 9.5 as well?
Tony Somma:
Well, there may be some ongoing open market activity as well and additionally to what was disclosed in the Q.
Ali Agha:
Okay. Okay. And then second question, was there any COLI income that was booked in the third quarter, and just, in general, can you remind us what kind of COLI earnings have you booked as part of your longer term 6% to 8% growth guidance?
Tony Somma:
So there were no COLI proceeds received in the quarter. And typically what – this is our legacy Westar COLI plan, we will take studies from our actuaries and we’ll include those in the projections that we put out, and we’ll have more clarity on that when we give earnings guidance in 2019.
Ali Agha:
Okay. Okay. And then lastly, GXP used to provide us weather-normalized electric sales data, which we all found very helpful. Is that something that Evergy plans to provide as well going forward?
Tony Somma:
I’m sorry, what was the question?
Ali Agha:
Weather-normalized electric sales, you give us electric sales with weather in there, but like GXP used to do, will Evergy provide us weather normalized electric sales data?
Tony Somma:
We can revisit that and look at it. Once we get we’ll be more germane to give the kind of the impact on the EPS, but...
Ali Agha:
That’s a number we can track with other companies as well. So it’s a useful data point if it can be provided.
Tony Somma:
Okay.
Operator:
And our next question comes from the line of Nicholas Campanella with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is now open.
Nicholas Campanella:
Good morning, congrats on the quarter. So I was curious on the CapEx update that I think you said will be getting towards the year-end call here. I mean, just any color on how to think about what’s been changing in your service territories premerger to now where you stand today, anything around the grid-mod runway, I know there’s a renewable tariff in Kansas and whether that could translate to rate-based opportunities. Could you just talk a little bit about on those items?
Terry Bassham:
Yes, this is Terry. I wouldn’t expect a lot of dramatic changes. The renewable tariff, in particular, relates to specific customer desires, needs, but in terms of grid modernization, those kind of things, we’ve been along that pathway. PISA provides us with the ability to work through PISA to make sure that we’re earning our allowed returns. But I think we’ve been pretty clear, leading up to the legislation and since that we don’t expect to then increase necessarily overall CapEx as a result, but instead utilize it to be able to earn our full return. So all that’s going well, going as expected. And I don’t think other than having some customer growth and having some folks, we’re doing things for when they come to town. We don’t expect any dramatic change in what you’ve seen up to this point.
Nicholas Campanella:
Got it. And then just back to the buyback quick. It seems like the ASRs are related to preferred method and how you’re approaching things, can you just talk about your preference to do that rather than other forms?
Tony Somma:
Well, certainly in the quarter it was. And what the ASR allows us to do is lock in a discount to the VWAP over whatever period of time the ASRs outstanding. So that’s what’s attracted to us. The other forms we like the open market purchase, both of those we talked about in our last call and don’t see us deviating away from those two avenues here.
Nicholas Campanella:
That’s helpful. Thanks a lot.
Operator:
And our next question comes from the line of Paul Ridzon with KeyBanc. Your line is now open.
Paul Ridzon:
Good morning. I have a question on the mechanics of the ASRs. This 6.5 million shares in August, have those actually pulled out of the market or is that just an obligation for the agent to purchase those?
Tony Somma:
We’re allowed to retire those shares. So the way ASR works, is we’ll shake hand with the bank or banks and they will go out and borrow those shares and deliver them to us, and we will retire those shares. Normally, it will be approximately 80% of the notational value of the contract that you get delivered upfront.
Paul Ridzon:
So we can assume that 80% of those shares are no longer in the market, at least 80%?
Tony Somma:
So what we disclosed in the Q, what was delivered up front and then also what was delivered on the closure of the one contract by the end of August, those shares have been retired.
Paul Ridzon:
Just – sorry, understand – that means the agent is actually purchased the share on the open market?
Tony Somma:
So upfront, no, but over time, yes.
Paul Ridzon:
Okay. So you have no – really have no idea how many of those shares could still be out there?
Tony Somma:
Well, on the one contract those shares have been closed – have been purchased.
Paul Ridzon:
Okay. And then does the agent in an ASR have any blackout periods?
Tony Somma:
No.
Paul Ridzon:
Your purchase is due when you make them on the open market?
Tony Somma:
If we enter into a open market purchase plan in an open window, that transcends future blackout period.
Paul Ridzon:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Tony Somma:
You’re welcome
Operator:
And our next question comes from the line of Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research. Your line is now open.
Steve Fleishman:
Hi, good morning. So first of all, just on the merger settlement agreements and your synergy plan, et cetera, just – were those all kind of in line with executing on your 6% to 8% growth plan?
Terry Bassham:
Yes. Yes, I’d say we’re very happy with our settlements. Obviously, the plan was through the merger of the settlement of the merger agreement to be able to continue kind of that pace of working with parties as we head into a period of no rate cases, and we’re very pleased where those came out, being able to settle with almost everybody and address lots of folks different needs within the plan that we had out there. So for sure, from a regulatory perspective, we’re very pleased with the work that team is able to do and the relationships we have with our jurisdictions. On the synergy side, yes, we continue to work on those plans, and we obviously have a lot of plans already in place and everything is in line with our expectations.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. Just secondly, on the dividend increase and growth rate. So it looks like this dividend increase was 3%, which is like a rebasing from which then to grow this 6% to 8% in line with earnings. How should I think about that aspect?
Tony Somma:
Steve, this is Tony. So as we thought about the dividend, yes, I think the way you characterize it was correct. It’s kind of rebasing. Five months after merger close, the Board raised the dividend. And we haven’t issued guidance yet for 2019, which is something that we had to consider. And also, as you know, we’re buying back a lot of shares at this time and don’t know that it makes sense to have a higher dividend today as opposed to seeing how things progress next year.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. But in terms of then, the expectation should be office level, it should be growing 6% to 8% in line with the earnings growth rate?
Tony Somma:
Yes, so we’re going to target a 60% to 70% payout ratio, commensurate with the EPS growth rate. It might not be exact every year or match it perfectly. But, yes, the long way to look at that is earnings growth 6% to 8% in the long run, the dividends should grow along with that.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. Is there any kind of lumpiness you expect in your earnings growth?
Tony Somma:
Well, we haven’t really issued any forecast period, Steve. So we’d be subject to – the lumpiness that we’d be subject to is really somewhat ameliorated by the rate case settlements that we reached in the stay-out period over the next 3 to 4, 5 years.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. So you have pretty good visibility?
Tony Somma:
Yes. But it’s not perfectly linear obviously as we’re going through the process of buying back shares.
Steve Fleishman:
Right. Okay. And then, just at a high level, anything – you did have a change in the Kansas governor, anything to think about in terms of energy policy in the state that could come out of that?
Terry Bassham:
No. We have a long history of working with our governor office and legislators in both states. Don’t see that changing with the governor in Kansas. We did have legislation in Kansas last year that was driven in large part by some of the rate case stuff that was going on. It wouldn’t surprise me if we have to continue to deal with some of those, in particular, individual customer issues. But in general, I don’t think anything that’s occurred concerns us in terms of our ability to work with our legislators and the governor in both states.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
And our next question comes from the line of Ashar Khan with Viridian. Your line is now open.
Ashar Khan:
Hi, how are you doing? I was just trying to get a better sense for next year, can you give some kind of guidance as to what kind of average share count should be used for next year, ballpark?
Tony Somma:
Well, we haven’t obviously published our EPS guidance next year or drivers, but Ashar, I’d say, although it won’t be exact with it, we’ve done here recently, what we’ve disclosed and what we said. We basically will have 9.5 million shares in over roughly 100 calendar days, so that translates to about 34 million, 35 million shares in a year’s period of time. So I think you can kind of follow that math.
Terry Bassham:
Yes, Ashar, I would say, I know there’s a lot of questions about the buyback, but we’re doing exactly what we said we’d do. We’ll being measured, we’re being patient and we’re being opportunistic if it presents itself. So as Tony said, I mean, I think you see can see from our first report out, that’s exactly what we did and would anticipate continuing to do that.
Ashar Khan:
No, that’s fine. I was just – because the guidance is going to be your first thing out of the box, so I thought if we have good expectation of what the average count could be, at least we are – our expectations on the guidance are – match what we come, and we are not surprised next year, that’s what I was trying to get at?
Terry Bassham:
Got you.
Tony Somma:
So we can put that as one of our drivers when we come out with our guidance.
Ashar Khan:
Okay. Thank you so much.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And our next question comes from the line of Paul Patterson with Glenrock. Your line is now open.
Paul Patterson:
So just – I’ve got a really simple question and I apologize if I missed this. But what’s weather-adjusted sales growth, what’s the outlook that you guys have now going forward?
Tony Somma:
So it’s been pretty consistent, 0 to 50 basis points.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. That hasn’t changed?
Tony Somma:
Correct.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. Thought it would be easy. Thanks so much.
Operator:
And our next question comes from the line of Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners. Your line is now open.
Shar Pourreza:
Hey, good morning guys. There’s couple of things going on. Just real quick, you plan on issuing guidance at the year-end call, correct?
Tony Somma:
Correct.
Shar Pourreza:
So we should just assume EEIs more – is a little bit more coming out with the strategy and how we’re doing from the integration, but don’t expect anything come out of the EEI directly?
Tony Somma:
That’s correct.
Shar Pourreza:
Okay. Got it. And then just on the buyback, just want to make sure, I’m confirming this. We should assume that you’re going to just dollar cost average between now and sort of the latter part of 2020, just given your viewpoints around growing at a larger base and potentially – so basically, the buybacks shouldn’t be assumed to be done at a more rapid pace, right, just assume dollar cost average to your outlook?
Tony Somma:
Yes. I think that’s kind of what we said and – if there are opportunities to do something different, we’ll look at it. But nobody at least that I’m aware of knows what the future is going to bring for evaluations on utilities. And we feel that the best strategy going forward is to kind of dollar cost average of share repurchases through the avenues that we mentioned.
Shar Pourreza:
Okay. Got it. Thanks for the clarification. Thanks.
Tony Somma:
You’re welcome
Operator:
Thank you. And I’m not showing any further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the call back over to Terry Bassham for closing remarks.
Terry Bassham:
Thank you, everybody. I know it’s a busy time. And we certainly look forward to talking to a lot of you next week in San Francisco. So thank you, much, and have a good weekend.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today’s conference. This does conclude today’s program and you may all disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Second Quarter 2018 Evergy, Inc. Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.
I would now like to introduce your host for today's presentation, Ms. Lori Wright. Ma'am, please begin.
Lori Wright:
Thank you, Howard. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Evergy's Second Quarter Call. This is also our inaugural Evergy earnings call. It's an exciting time for us, and we thank you for joining us this morning.
Today's discussion will include forward-looking information on Slide 2 and the disclosure in our SEC filings containing list of some of the factors that could cause future results to differ materially from our expectations. We issued our second quarter 2018 earnings release and 10-Q after market close yesterday. These items are available along with today's webcast slides and supplemental financial information for the quarter on the main page of our website at evergyinc.com. On the call today, we have Terry Bassham, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Tony Somma, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Other members of our management team are with us and will be available during the question-and-answer portion of today's call. As summarized on Slide 3, Terry will provide a business update on our new company, including our regulatory and legislative priorities. Tony will then offer detail on our financial results and provide an update on our share repurchase plans. With that, I'll hand the call to Terry.
Terry Bassham:
Thanks, Lori, and good morning, everybody. I'll start my comments on Slide 5.
But first, let me start off by saying it's great to be joining today as the new Evergy. Our name and brand are a blend of the words ever and energy, conveying our proud history as a reliable source of energy for our communities we serve and our vision to continue far into the future. We've served customers in Kansas and Missouri for more than a century. Together, we're more efficient allowing us to continue providing excellent customer service, maintain competitive rates and provide attractive total shareholder returns. We are -- we were persistent in finding a way to make this merger happen because we were extremely confident in the value of this combination. We appreciate that you also recognize this value, and thank you for your patience and confidence throughout this unique path. Now on to the business update. Last night, we reported second quarter GAAP EPS of $0.56 and pro forma EPS of $0.90, which exclude nonrecurring merger-related expenses. The ability to deliver solid financial results amongst merger distraction is a testament to our team. Our employees remained focused, never took their eye off the ball on running our business. With the transaction behind us, we're putting into motion our merger integration plans and executing on the next regulatory priorities. We've run into no surprises since closing and remaining on track to deliver our earnings and dividend growth targets, while still planning to rebalance our capital structure. Tony will give you the latest on our repurchase buyback plans in a bit, a topic I know many of you are interested in. Now let me update you on regulatory and legislative priorities, turn to Slide 6. It's been a busy year as we filed rate reviews in all 4 state jurisdictions and devoted significant effort towards successful legislative regulatory form in Missouri. In most recent news, we've reached a nonunanimous settlement with KCC staff, CURB and several other interveners in our Westar rate review. The merger settlement in Kansas cross-referenced the open rate review creating certainty for important items like ROE and merger savings. The certainty teed up settlement conversations focused on more manageable discussions, like appropriate levels of depreciation, how best to recover our newest wind farm, Western Plains, and expiring wholesale contracts. In our filing, we requested the wind farm and expiring wholesale contracts to be reflected in base rates. As a result of settlement negotiations, we will reflect the wind farm, including return of and return on the investment to a levelized structure. This structure allows us to recover the full amount as if we had used traditional rate making with smooth customer costs over 20 years rather than having the lumpiness of expiring production tax credits after a decade. Similarly, we requested the expiring wholesale contract be reflected in base rates. This created a timing issue, and we requested a 2-step approach with proposed rate changes in September and again in January of next year. In the settlement, the full revenue increase request for this contract will flow through our fuel costs when the wholesale contract expires in early January removing the need for a 2-step base rate implementation. These constructive solutions for large discrete items create balance to reflect the appropriate cost recovery while stabilizing base rates for our customers. All in all, the settlement calls for a single $66 million revenue reduction with an ROE of 9.3% and an equity layer of 51.5%. Approximately $75 million impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is also included in the settlement. Rates will become effective upon commission approval, which we expect on September 27. We're pleased with the value and certainty created by this settlement, especially as we transition into base rate adjustment payout period in Kansas for the next 5 years. Additionally, the settlement creates several new rate design solutions for customers and sets the demand charges for our current residential distribution generation rate class. Staying on Kansas for a minute, on May 1, we filed a rate review for KCPL, requesting a revenue increase of $16 million. The request reflects in rates the annual tax savings from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. It will also update retail rates for several customer experience enhancements, including technology and sustainability initiatives and reflect merger savings. The schedule shows intervener testimony due September 12 and our rebuttal testimony due October 3, and settlement discussion and hearings later in October with a final order and new rates effective around year-end. Shifting to Missouri rate reviews for KCP&L and GMO. For KCPL, we requested a revenue increase of around $9 million. For GMO, we requested a net revenue decrease of about $2 million. Consistent with the reviews in Kansas, both of these Missouri applications also reflect in rates the benefit associated with the new federal tax law. The combined docket schedule calls for 2 settlement conferences over the next month with evidentiary hearings in mid-September and an order date in late November. Turning to an update on legislative reform in Missouri. In May, Senate Bill 564 was passed by the house, signed by the Governor in June and became law. This bill is the cumulation -- culmination of stakeholders forward-thinking to reform Missouri's 100-year-old regulatory framework. It offers consumer protections to ensure future energy costs are more stable and predictable, addresses regulatory lag from system investments and creates a more attractive platform to modernize the electric grid. In the near term, it doesn't create a lot of incremental investment for us, but it does allow us to continue spending at an appropriate level to maintain system reliability, while removing barriers that contributed to regulatory lag in the past. Now turning to Slide 7. I'll touch on renewable update before handing things over to Tony. Over the last decade, we've transitioned our generation portfolio to capitalize on renewable resources as part of our long-term sustainability strategy. By 2020, we expect to reduce carbon emissions by over 40% from 2010 levels. Our diverse generation fleet now provides half the power our retail customers need from clean, carbon-free energy sources. Nearly 1/3 of this power will soon become -- or soon come from renewable resources, making Evergy one of the largest wind energy providers in the nation. Moving forward, we'll continue to focus on adding renewables while retiring end-of-life fossil plants. By the end of 2018, we will have completed the retirement of more than 1,500 megawatts of fossil generation, approximately 800 of coal and 700 of natural gas. In addition, we continue to add new wind generation with 244 megawatts expected in 2018, 200 megawatts by mid-2019 and 300 megawatts in 2020, resulting in a wind portfolio of over 3,800 megawatts by the end of this decade. We have deliberately focused on improving the quality of our environment in our region and worked with regulators to find ways to offer clean energy resources to customers. In July, the KCC unlocked a powerful economic development tool that would allow many of our large customers to take advantage of the abundant and affordable renewable energy found in our service territory. With Westar's new renewable direct tariff, participating businesses will be able to claim a portion of their energy needs for 20 years from the 30 -- 300-megawatt Soldier Creek Wind Farm, which will be developed in Nemaha County, Kansas and is expected to be in-service by year-end 2020. As renewable demand grows, we can add incremental wind, our Soldier projects with proper KCC approval. This opportunity is another example of us harvesting Kansas wind to help grow Kansas businesses and communities. Before turning the call over to Tony, let me remind you of our near-term focus and unique investment thesis. We're targeting top quartile total shareholder return predicated on significant merger savings and share repurchases. Pleased to report earlier this month our board increased the dividend to $0.46 or $1.84 on an annualized basis consistent with the commitment we made upon announcement of the merger. We remain confident in our estimates and are starting to capitalize on our integration plans. Strong balance sheet, solid credit profile plus $1.25 billion cash puts us in position to strategically rebalance our capital structure. We plan to execute the share repurchase program while continuing to invest in our business, maintaining the reliability that our customers deserve. Our commitment to no rate reviews for the next 4 to 5 years allows us to provide an attractive total shareholder returns while significantly reducing the regulatory risk with that opportunity. With that, I will now turn the call over to Tony.
Tony Somma:
Thanks, Terry, and good morning, everyone. I'll start with the results on Slide 9 of the presentation. Given the messy nature of the merger closing in June and the associated onetime items linked to the transaction, I'll focus primarily on the pro forma results, which exclude nonrecurring merger-related items and compares results of Evergy as if we were formed on January 1, 2017.
As detailed on the slide, the second quarter pro forma EPS were $0.90 per share compared to $0.59 a share for the second quarter last year. Some of the drivers that increase -- some of the drivers of the increase included a $0.19 pickup related to the reevaluation of Westar's deferred income taxes, based on Evergy's composite tax rate resulting from the merger; increased sales due primarily to warmer weather, which we estimate helped about $0.18; offset by $0.06 of other costs, including inventory write-offs for the planned shutdown of the Westar plants later this year, a portion of the annual ongoing bill credits in Kansas and transition costs net of deferral. After-tax, merger-related costs that were excluded from the pro forma results, but included in GAAP, were about $69 million. Also GAAP earnings only include KCPL and GMO results beginning in June upon closing of the merger. Moving on year-to-date results on Slide 10. Year-to-date pro forma EPS were $1.23 compared to $0.91 a share last year. Variances for the year-to-date results are similar to the quarter drivers and include $0.19 of Westar's deferred income tax reevaluation based on the new composite tax rate; increased sales due to favorable weather, which we estimate helped about $0.25; offset by $0.12 of other costs, including the inventory write-offs for the planned shutdown of the Westar plants, the impact of the annual ongoing bill credits and transition costs net of deferral. For the year, GAAP results include about $69 million of after-tax merger-related costs that are in the pro forma results. Also GAAP only includes KCPL and GMO results for the period post-merger closed, whereas pro forma includes them for the whole period. Moving to Slide 11, I'll briefly touch on our local economy. Our customer segment sales are balanced across our service territories after combining the residential, commercial, metropolitan area of KCPL and the steady demand of Westar's industrial base. Unemployment rates range from 3.4% to 3.7% throughout our service territory, continue to trend at being below the national average of 3.8%. Jobs coming to the metro areas continue to provide support to residential real estate markets that have been strong in Kansas City over the past few years. On a pro forma basis, residential and commercial sales year-to-date are up 18% and 5%, respectively, compared to same period last year. Increased sales have been driven mostly from favorable weather, which when compared to normal, we estimate helped by about $0.22 for the quarter and about $0.23 year-to-date. Industrials are slightly ahead of expected levels were down about 1% compared to a strong first half last year. On a combined basis, we've seen 29 consecutive quarters of customer growth. Overall, we remain encouraged in the broader economic climate and continue to see weather normalized event of flat to 50 basis points of growth. I'll wrap up on Slide 12 before handing it back to Terry. We remain on track to deliver our attractive EPS target of 6% to 8% annual growth through 2021. As Terry mentioned, our board recently increased year dividend to $0.46 or $1.84 annualized, and we plan to grow this in line with EPS, while targeting a 60% to 70% payout ratio over time. We are confident in our plan to execute the merger savings and buybacks and happy to see the confidence reflected in recent rating agency reports. Since closing the merger, we've received an upgrade from S&P and remain on stable outlook for both S&P and Moody's. Our strong investment grade credit profile and cash position allow us to rebalance our capital structure. While we haven't started the buybacks yet, our board has authorized repurchase of up to 60 million shares of common stock, which we expect to complete by mid-2020. We'll take both a programmatic and opportunistic approach to the repurchases and expect to use a series of transactions over time, including open market repurchases and accelerated share repurchases. This allows for a deliberate and steady pace to rebalance the capital structure. We've the intent to dollar-cost average of the repurchases over time. Other means could be considered subject to market conditions and management's discretion. The cadence of number of shares we purchase in each period will depend on many factors. We'll report the results of our share repurchases in the appropriate SEC documents. To finish up, let me briefly update you on our current thinking around guidance and projections. We don't plan to issue balance of the year 2018 guidance. And given that the KCPL and GMO rate reviews aren't scheduled to conclude until year-end, we most likely announce 2019 guidance along with updated projections on our fourth quarter and year-end call next February. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Terry.
Terry Bassham:
Thanks, Tony, and thanks for everybody joining us here this morning. We appreciate your time, and now, we'll be happy to take your questions. So I'll turn it back over to Howard, our operator.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question or comment comes from the line of Nicholas Campanella from Bank of America.
Nicholas Campanella:
So first off, Terry, Tony, Kevin, congrats on successfully closing the transaction. You mentioned the cadence of share repurchases depends on a number of factors. Can you just kind of expand on what those factors are that would drive your specific decision making? And why not commit the cash on hand now to repurchase the first larger slug of shares? Can you just kind of expand on that?
Tony Somma:
Sure. Well, as we've said since the announcement of the transaction, we would rebalance the capital structure and repurchase approximately 60 million shares over 2 years. Our current thinking today is that we would effectuate that through a series of transactions over time to dollar-cost average and share repurchases. This way, we're deploying our capital efficiently, which many shareholders would like us to do, rather than doing a big splash, big bang and pay $1.10 for something we can buy for $1.
Terry Bassham:
Nick, if I understood your question right, we also are pretty focused on cash and the balance sheet as a starting point. I think, I mentioned that in my comments that we've got those dollars there today.
Nicholas Campanella:
Yes. That certainly makes sense. Is there a dollar average cost per share that you're kind of targeting through the period?
Tony Somma:
No.
Terry Bassham:
We are to do that with a market over a 2-year period.
Nicholas Campanella:
Yes. Yes. Okay. And then just quick on the renewable -- the direct renewable tariff. Can you just talk about how you're seeing the renewable appetite for your customers evolve in Kansas as it relates to tariff opportunity? And whether or not that could potentially drive actual rate-based opportunities for you? Because I believe the wind farm discussed on the prepared remarks was a PPA in light of that tariffs. Can you talk about that a little?
Terry Bassham:
Yes, so as I think you've seen or would have heard from many companies across the country, they're looking at these kinds of opportunities, whether it'd be through regulated entities or otherwise. And obviously, given our location, we've got the ability to work with Western Kansas wind. That is a great opportunity for those companies. We're excited about our tariff approval because we want to continue to be the provider of choice for our customers, even on the renewable front. And yes, we'll work through those. One of the 3 that I mentioned, the one that will be finished around 2020 is targeted at that tariff. And I would say that, yes, as we continue to work with our customers and continue to see demand. If we, in fact, see additional demand, we would then look for an opportunity to seek KCC approval to expand on that and include that as well.
Nicholas Campanella:
That's great. And just one last question on the -- your comments are very clear on guidance for the year-end call rather than any time near term, but what about CapEx?
Tony Somma:
Well, we have a plan out there, $6.2 billion for the next 5 years. We would update that on the year-end call as well.
Terry Bassham:
If anything material, obviously, change, we'd have to report that in the third quarter call as well, so.
Operator:
Our next question or comment comes from the line of Steve Fleishman from Wolfe Research.
Steven Fleishman:
So first, on the buyback. So it's fully authorized, you haven't bought any stock yet. Is that correct?
Tony Somma:
Correct.
Steven Fleishman:
And then, is there any reason after today that you wouldn't -- is there any like blackout or other reason you wouldn't be able to comment the market after today?
Terry Bassham:
Well, we would, obviously, meet with our counsel, and they'll give us the green light. And we'll go from there. Process wise, we'll follow the rule.
Steven Fleishman:
Ready to go. Okay. And then on the kind of merger execution costs, et cetera, the -- how are you feeling about executing on your synergy targets? And I know you also had added in some savings from plant shutdowns. Just kind of maybe an update on that.
Terry Bassham:
Yes, things are going well. I mean, I've described for folks kind of the feel and tone around the company and really people have been working for a couple of years together on this plan and are ready to go to work. It's an exciting time around here. We've not found anything outside of our plans that we've been working on, business plans we've been working on that says we're not ready to go and execute consistent with those plans, and we're off and running. As we move forward, we'll, obviously, have changes in the environment, and we'll have things we'll find, and we'll work through those. So -- but we are off and running and don't really have any reason to believe we won't execute just as we've talked about.
Kevin Bryant:
And Steve, this is Kevin. We announced previously the shutdown of the KCPL plants. Just a few weeks ago, we announced the shutdown of the Westar plants that we've been talking by November of this year. So we are, to Terry's point, well on track.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay. And then just lastly, how are you feeling about the potential to settle the Missouri rate cases?
Terry Bassham:
Well, I think, like most of our cases in Missouri, we'll settle a lot of issues. We normally -- we haven't settled the entire case with all parties in quite a while, but we always settle a vast majority of the issues and end up maybe litigating a couple. But I would say in this instance, with all the work that's been going on and the conversations, we've got a shot here to actually settle those as well. But if not, I think, any hearings would be limited and focused on a few issues that will look pretty traditional.
Operator:
Our next question or comment comes from the line of Ali Agha from SunTrust.
Ali Agha:
First question, just to clarify the plan on the share buyback, I know you have up to mid-2020 to complete that as per your own internal targets. For planning purposes, should we assume that you'll take that full time that -- it'll be by mid-2020 that'll be done? Or is there a possibility or scenario that you could utilize that faster and get it done before mid-2020?
Tony Somma:
So we -- your guess would be as good as ours, right, because we're not able to predict the future on what capital markets will do or not. And so, targeting 2020 is kind of what we said. And if we finish sooner rather than later, that's fine as well.
Terry Bassham:
Yes, I think -- we think that time period gives us plenty of time to execute, and we'll be opportunistic, and we'll be smart about it for all our shareholders. And as Tony says, it's kind of hard to say given where markets could move over a 24-month period.
Ali Agha:
Yes. And you talked about various ways of doing it, including accelerated share repurchases. I'm assuming you've spent enough time, looked at all of the various options. Any one insight on what looks attractive right now, accelerated share repurchase, obviously, the mechanics of it, I'm sure you're well familiar with, any particular reason why you wouldn't go for that versus just taking it over a longer period?
Terry Bassham:
Well, we've, as I said in my remarks, we'd -- the immediate focus would be on accelerated share repurchases and open market repurchases, and they both look attractive and have their pros and cons.
Ali Agha:
Okay. Separately, the earnings growth profile as you targeted through '21, fair to say that it is pretty front-end loaded, as you get the benefits of both the synergies and the buyback. But when you look long term, once the buyback is over, let's say, in 2020, what is in your mind the sustainable growth rate for the combined company? I believe, your CapEx plan equates to about a 4% rate-based CAGR. Is that a good sustainable way to think about earnings growth or could earnings growth be greater than that? Any insight into that once the share buyback is behind us?
Tony Somma:
This is Tony. I'll take a stab. Well, the investment thesis that we've laid out is a little unique in buying back the shares and not necessarily driving the rate base up 8% a year and asking for rate increases every other year. And so the share buyback does lift kind of a slope of a line of the EPS CAGR, little front-end loaded. And then on the back-end, even past 2020, we'll still be able to execute on synergies as we combine the 2 companies. And it's not like we don't have investment opportunities out in the future, we would have every opportunity that any other utility has, but we kind of in the near term here, next few years, we have unique opportunity to rebalance the capital structure and harvest synergies.
Terry Bassham:
I'd only add -- Tony's got it just right. I'd only add that with the combination of PISA and with -- it's already been mentioned, the wind opportunity, could have customers there interested. There -- as Tony said, we've got opportunities other folks have. We are committed to maintaining our focus on rates for our customers. So we want to be sure that we're carrying out this time period without rate increases. So that balance is in there as well.
Ali Agha:
But Terry, is it fair to say that if you took the share repurchases out and so we look at back-end of this growth, that you can still grow north of rate base growth because of the synergy opportunities?
Terry Bassham:
There is no question that buying back 60 million shares helps our EPS growth. I mean, there is no question about that and it does cause it to be front-end loaded. Again, we've each been through a 10-year period of rate increases. We've each built generation and environmental equipment, and we're in a period now where we don't have to do that. There are other opportunities, but we want to balance that through a time period to provide our region with an economic development opportunity that could benefit us in other ways. And a continued growth in cost of electricity to our customers is an issue for many parts of this country. And we think our unique opportunity here is to be able to grow shareholder returns without having to build rate base and increase rates through request of the commissions for this time period. With that, we have lots of opportunity to continue to provide great resources to our customers and maintain reliability for our customers in a way that provides that stable earnings return.
Ali Agha:
Last question. Terry, you mentioned that the Missouri legislation in and of itself doesn't necessarily, at least for now, cause an increase in your CapEx. But could you give us some sense of what it does do as far as the earnings power is concerned in terms of the reduction in lag? How should we think about that benefit to your profile?
Terry Bassham:
Yes, so number one, it doesn't provide the increase because we choose not to. I mean, as we've described that over time, we've continued to invest. We had rate cases, and we suffered some of that lag, and we worked through it. But yes, it provides the stability to continue to spend those dollars. Couple of things happen. Number one, the PISA itself allows us to mitigate and to a large part, eliminate lag associated with much of our ongoing spend that we need and will continue to do for reliability and maintenance and technology upgrade for our customers. And then I would say the one thing that we didn't necessarily have legislation on was transmission of property taxes. But I think, going forward, we've seen that those have levelized. The SPP transmission process and property tax increases are not expected to cause the lag they have in the past in KCP&L. So you combine that with PISA providing protection, if you will, for that lag that would traditionally have happened between rate cases, and it really provides a level of stability and ongoing ability to deliver our shareholder returns on an annual basis.
Operator:
Our next question or comment comes from the line of Christopher Turnure of JPMorgan.
Christopher Turnure:
I wanted to just get a sense after you've kind of reset that dividend here with the merger close as you had indicated you would do. How we should think about the kind of annual review of the dividend by the board? And if that timing will change from, I think, the kind of normal third quarter timing that Great Plains had?
Terry Bassham:
Yes -- no, it's likely to stay the same. I mean, obviously, we've made the adjustment that we committed to in the merger discussions we've had. And we would expect over the course of the next several years, probably to have that same timing review. Obviously, they look at it technically every quarter, but we tend to look at it for the annual increase in the third quarter, but again, we will look at it every quarter.
Christopher Turnure:
Okay. And then, within the 60% to 70% payout range, any reason to think you would vary widely within that range over the 5-year plan for one reason or another?
Terry Bassham:
No reason to think that. Cash flow and again, credits are getting strong, and we see that as being kind of the rational payout for the plan.
Christopher Turnure:
Okay. And then, my second question is just for modeling purposes. Can you remind us of when you expect to be paying really any material level of cash taxes?
Tony Somma:
Cash taxes will probably be post 2022.
Operator:
Our next question or comment comes from the line of Paul Ridzon from KeyBanc.
Paul Ridzon:
Tony, is there any reason to think that part of your thinking on the buyback is, if you think interest rates are rising, it might be better to wait a few months to get the stock at a cheaper price?
Tony Somma:
Well, we don't -- again, talking within the context of the 2 years, we will be smart and manage the buybacks in the context of the -- both the market and the industry. Other than that, no, I mean, we -- again, we don't expect it to be a different time frame than the 24 months we talked about, and we'll be smart along the way. Other than that, it's kind of hard to do -- say much more.
Paul Ridzon:
Understood. And is there anything ongoing about the benefit of tax reform that you included in your pro forma?
Tony Somma:
Say that again.
Paul Ridzon:
One of the things in your pro forma to get to $0.90 is the reevaluation of deferred taxes. That kind of seems like a onetime thing. Is that the right way to think about it?
Tony Somma:
Yes, it's a onetime thing.
Operator:
Our next question or comment comes from the line of [indiscernible] from Verizon.
Unknown Analyst:
Can I just say, Terry, I don't know, I think so, could you just amplify when you said that we would know by SEC filings how much shares you've bought. Could do just -- is that going to be the 10-Q? Or what SEC filings are you referring to? Could you please be more specific on that.
Tony Somma:
Yes, generally that would be the 10-Qs.
Unknown Analyst:
Okay. Okay. Second, I just -- just looking at the cost -- the cash on the balance sheet right now. Is that earning any interest? Or is it just cash on hand?
Tony Somma:
It's earning some interest.
Unknown Analyst:
Okay. Okay. I don't know this is my thought process. It's been a long time or I'm thinking too wrongly or rightly, right, it's about $1.2 billion on the books, which easily gets you 20 million shares or so. So is it -- as you have looked at your guidance, is it fair to assume that we can say 2018, 2019, 2020 or am I thinking through that not in a systematic manner?
Tony Somma:
I'm not sure I understand your question or your statement, [ Ashar ]. We've committed to doing the share repurchases and targeting the 2 years and the mechanisms that we'll use are open market repurchases or accelerated share repurchases. We'll burn through the cash first. And use cash flow from operations, obviously, and then we'll also incur some debt over time. And the cadence of that will depend on many things that we just can't know today. And so for modeling purposes, your guess is as good as mine as to when we complete that program, if that's the question.
Unknown Analyst:
Okay. Just from our side, as in Westar, we would, of course, like the cash to be burned as fast as possible, right, because it has the carrying cost in terms of the dividend, right. You will be paying dividend on all the extra shares and all that. So as a prudent manager, we would like you guys to at least burn the cash ASAP, if I'm missing something on that.
Tony Somma:
Well, we'll burn it in the manner that's consistent with the plans that we've laid out.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our next question or comment comes from the line of Gregg Orrill from UBS.
Gregg Orrill:
In Missouri, post the legislation, can you give a range of what you think regulatory lag is in between cases now? And then I have another question.
Terry Bassham:
I don't think we could tell you what kind of we would expect in terms of lag over the 4- to 5-year period. Historically, what we have done even in the context of the prior regulatory framework is that we would have earned very close to our return, within 50 basis points or so the year after the rate case true-up, which remember we're going through true-ups in all our cases right now. And then you'd see that lag begin to build, and I think what we're hopeful for is we wouldn't see that continued build. So we would earn closer to our return throughout that period and that's not -- that's without knowing other things that could happen. But the PISA legislation addresses along with my description of kind of what's happening with property taxes and transmission, the majority of the lag you would have seen in the past that was billed over, say, kind of our traditional 50 basis points. Don't forget, we're also generating the savings from the merger perspective, which also gives us an opportunity to offsetting the lag that not naturally exist.
Gregg Orrill:
Okay. So baseline of lag and then layer on the synergies after that?
Terry Bassham:
Yes, our hope would be to earn very close to allowed return.
Gregg Orrill:
Okay. And then on the wind -- the new wind, the 700 plus megawatts there. What did the guidance anticipate about that being owned?
Terry Bassham:
Those are all PPAs. So our guidance and the CapEx you would have seen didn't include any of those as a CapEx add.
Operator:
Our next question or comment is a follow-up from Mr. Steve Fleishman from Wolfe Research.
Steven Fleishman:
Just one question that I'm not sure you're able to answer, but just is there any way to get a sense of kind of how many blackout days you have in a year? Just because it's hard to get this all done even in 22 months.
Terry Bassham:
Well, I mean there are some standard blackout day rules associated with reporting earnings and those kinds of things. I don't have them at the tip of my fingers.
Tony Somma:
So Steve, the design of these programs, as you know, are -- you can abide by some safe harbor rules, 10b5-1 and 10b-18, and we would, obviously, comply with those safe harbors and be able to repurchase shares at the appropriate time.
Operator:
I'm showing no additional questions in the queue at this time. I would like to turn the conference over -- back over to Mr. Terry Bassham for any closing remarks.
Terry Bassham:
Thank you, Howard, and thank you everybody for joining us today. Again, we are extremely proud to be sitting around the table together as a new Evergy and talking to you about our new company. So we look forward to talking to you in the future, and thank you for your time today. We'll conclude the call. Thank you.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This concludes the program. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.