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  • Utilities
Exelon Corporation logo
Exelon Corporation
EXC · US · NASDAQ
37.48
USD
-0.06
(0.16%)
Executives
Name Title Pay
Mr. Michael A. Innocenzo Executive Vice President & Chief Operating Officer --
Ms. Jessica K. Hart Senior Vice President & Chief Investment Officer --
Mr. Robert A. Kleczynski Senior Vice President, Corporate Controller & Tax and Principal Accounting Officer --
Mr. David Andrew Glockner Executive Vice President of Compliance, Audit & Risk 1.4M
Mr. Gil C. Quiniones Chief Executive Officer & President of Commonwealth Edison Company 1.36M
Mr. Calvin G. Butler Jr. Chief Executive Officer, President & Director 3.99M
Ms. Jeanne M. Jones Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer 1.57M
Ms. Gayle E. Littleton Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary 2.42M
Mr. Andrew C. Plenge Vice President of Investor Relations --
Ms. Denise Galambos Senior Vice President & Chief Human Resources Officer --
Insider Transactions
Date Name Title Acquisition Or Disposition Stock / Options # of Shares Price
2024-06-30 YOUNG JOHN F director A - A-Award Common stock- deferred stock units 1161 35.54
2024-06-30 Segedi Bryan K director A - A-Award Common stock- deferred stock units 1161 35.54
2024-06-30 Rogers Matthew C director A - A-Award Common stock- deferred stock units 1161 35.54
2024-06-30 RICHO ANNA director A - A-Award Common stock- deferred stock units 1161 35.54
2024-06-30 RICHO ANNA director A - A-Award Deferred phantom share equivalents 903 0
2024-06-30 Lillie Charisse R director A - A-Award Common stock- deferred stock units 1161 35.54
2024-06-30 Jojo Linda P director A - A-Award Common stock- deferred stock units 1161 35.54
2024-06-30 Cheshire Marjorie Rodgers director A - A-Award Common stock- deferred stock units 1161 35.54
2024-06-30 Cheshire Marjorie Rodgers director A - A-Award Deferred phantom share equivalents 1371 0
2024-06-30 BOWERS WILLIAM P director A - A-Award Common stock- deferred stock units 1161 35.54
2024-06-30 BOWERS WILLIAM P director A - A-Award Deferred phantom share equivalents 4608 0
2024-04-01 Quiniones Gil C officer - 0 0
2024-04-01 Khouzami Carim V officer - 0 0
2024-04-01 Anthony John Tyler officer - 0 0
2024-04-01 Honorable Colette D EVP Public Policy D - Common Stock 0 0
2024-04-01 Honorable Colette D EVP Public Policy D - 2024 Restricted Stock Units 10866 0
2024-04-01 Innocenzo Michael EVP & Chief Operating Officer A - A-Award 2024 Restricted Stock Units 8327 0
2024-03-31 YOUNG JOHN F director A - A-Award Common stock- deferred stock units 1131 36.48
2024-03-31 Segedi Bryan K director A - A-Award Common stock- deferred stock units 1131 36.48
2024-03-31 Rogers Matthew C director A - A-Award Common stock- deferred stock units 1131 36.48
2024-03-31 RICHO ANNA director A - A-Award Common stock- deferred stock units 1131 36.48
2024-03-31 RICHO ANNA director A - A-Award Deferred phantom share equivalents 831 0
2024-03-31 Lillie Charisse R director A - A-Award Common stock- deferred stock units 1131 36.48
2024-03-31 Jojo Linda P director A - A-Award Common stock- deferred stock units 1131 36.48
2024-03-31 Cheshire Marjorie Rodgers director A - A-Award Common stock- deferred stock units 1131 36.48
2024-03-31 Cheshire Marjorie Rodgers director A - A-Award Deferred phantom share equivalents 329 0
2024-03-31 BOWERS WILLIAM P director A - A-Award Common stock- deferred stock units 1131 36.48
2024-03-31 BOWERS WILLIAM P director A - A-Award Deferred phantom share equivalents 1130 0
2024-03-31 Anderson Anthony director A - A-Award Common stock- deferred stock units 1131 36.48
2024-01-29 Quiniones Gil C CEO of ComEd A - A-Award 2024 Restricted Stock Units 11119 0
2024-01-29 Quiniones Gil C CEO of ComEd A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3243 0
2024-01-29 Quiniones Gil C CEO of ComEd D - M-Exempt 2023 Restricted Stock Units 3242 0
2024-01-29 Quiniones Gil C CEO of ComEd D - F-InKind Common Stock 2066 35.29
2024-01-29 Quiniones Gil C CEO of ComEd A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3242 0
2024-01-29 Quiniones Gil C CEO of ComEd D - M-Exempt 2022 Restricted Stock Units 3243 0
2024-01-29 Littleton Gayle EVP & Chief Legal Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 32151 0
2024-01-29 Littleton Gayle EVP & Chief Legal Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 20047 35.29
2024-01-29 Littleton Gayle EVP & Chief Legal Officer D - D-Return Common Stock 8954 35.29
2024-01-29 Littleton Gayle EVP & Chief Legal Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 4612 0
2024-01-29 Littleton Gayle EVP & Chief Legal Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3682 0
2024-01-29 Littleton Gayle EVP & Chief Legal Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 4812 0
2024-01-29 Littleton Gayle EVP & Chief Legal Officer A - A-Award 2021-2023 Performance Shares 32151 0
2024-01-29 Littleton Gayle EVP & Chief Legal Officer A - A-Award 2024 Restricted Stock Units 16505 0
2024-01-29 Littleton Gayle EVP & Chief Legal Officer D - M-Exempt 2023 Restricted Stock Units 4812 0
2024-01-29 Littleton Gayle EVP & Chief Legal Officer D - M-Exempt 2022 Restricted Stock Units 3682 0
2024-01-29 Littleton Gayle EVP & Chief Legal Officer D - M-Exempt 2021 Restricted Stock Units 4612 0
2024-01-29 Littleton Gayle EVP & Chief Legal Officer D - M-Exempt 2021-2023 Performance Shares 32151 0
2024-01-29 Kleczynski Robert A SVP & Corporate Controller A - M-Exempt Common Stock 9569 0
2024-01-29 Kleczynski Robert A SVP & Corporate Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 4136 35.29
2024-01-29 Kleczynski Robert A SVP & Corporate Controller D - D-Return Common Stock 3386 35.29
2024-01-29 Kleczynski Robert A SVP & Corporate Controller A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1373 0
2024-01-29 Kleczynski Robert A SVP & Corporate Controller A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1186 0
2024-01-29 Kleczynski Robert A SVP & Corporate Controller A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1365 0
2024-01-29 Kleczynski Robert A SVP & Corporate Controller A - A-Award 2021-2023 Performance Shares 9569 0
2024-01-29 Kleczynski Robert A SVP & Corporate Controller A - A-Award 2024 Restricted Stock Units 4676 0
2024-01-29 Kleczynski Robert A SVP & Corporate Controller D - M-Exempt 2023 Restricted Stock Units 1365 0
2024-01-29 Kleczynski Robert A SVP & Corporate Controller D - M-Exempt 2022 Restricted Stock Units 1186 0
2024-01-29 Kleczynski Robert A SVP & Corporate Controller D - M-Exempt 2021 Restricted Stock Units 1373 0
2024-01-29 Kleczynski Robert A SVP & Corporate Controller D - M-Exempt 2021-2023 Performance Shares 9569 0
2024-01-29 Khouzami Carim V CEO of BGE A - M-Exempt Common Stock 21236 0
2024-01-29 Khouzami Carim V CEO of BGE D - F-InKind Common Stock 9831 35.29
2024-01-29 Khouzami Carim V CEO of BGE A - A-Award 2021-2023 Performance Shares 21236 0
2024-01-29 Khouzami Carim V CEO of BGE D - D-Return Common Stock 7048 35.29
2024-01-29 Khouzami Carim V CEO of BGE A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3046 0
2024-01-29 Khouzami Carim V CEO of BGE A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2253 0
2024-01-29 Khouzami Carim V CEO of BGE A - A-Award 2024 Restricted Stock Units 7721 0
2024-01-29 Khouzami Carim V CEO of BGE A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2251 0
2024-01-29 Khouzami Carim V CEO of BGE D - M-Exempt 2023 Restricted Stock Units 2251 0
2024-01-29 Khouzami Carim V CEO of BGE D - M-Exempt 2022 Restricted Stock Units 2253 0
2024-01-29 Khouzami Carim V CEO of BGE D - M-Exempt 2021 Restricted Stock Units 3046 0
2024-01-29 Khouzami Carim V CEO of BGE D - M-Exempt 2021-2023 Performance Shares 21236 0
2024-01-29 Jones Jeanne M Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 8772 0
2024-01-29 Jones Jeanne M Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 4935 35.29
2024-01-29 Jones Jeanne M Chief Financial Officer D - D-Return Common Stock 3095 35.29
2024-01-29 Jones Jeanne M Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1258 0
2024-01-29 Jones Jeanne M Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1365 0
2024-01-29 Jones Jeanne M Chief Financial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 4812 0
2024-01-29 Jones Jeanne M Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award 2024 Restricted Stock Units 18011 0
2024-01-29 Jones Jeanne M Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt 2023 Restricted Stock Units 4812 0
2024-01-29 Jones Jeanne M Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award 2021-2023 Performance Shares 8772 0
2024-01-29 Jones Jeanne M Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt 2022 Restricted Stock Units 1365 0
2024-01-29 Jones Jeanne M Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt 2021 Restricted Stock Units 1258 0
2024-01-29 Jones Jeanne M Chief Financial Officer D - M-Exempt 2021-2023 Performance Shares 8772 0
2024-01-29 Innocenzo Michael CEO, PECO Energy Co. A - M-Exempt Common Stock 21236 0
2024-01-29 Innocenzo Michael CEO, PECO Energy Co. D - F-InKind Common Stock 9233 35.29
2024-01-29 Innocenzo Michael CEO, PECO Energy Co. A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3046 0
2024-01-29 Innocenzo Michael CEO, PECO Energy Co. D - D-Return Common Stock 14534 35.29
2024-01-29 Innocenzo Michael CEO, PECO Energy Co. A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2252 0
2024-01-29 Innocenzo Michael CEO, PECO Energy Co. A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2251 0
2024-01-29 Innocenzo Michael CEO, PECO Energy Co. A - A-Award 2021-2023 Performance Shares 21236 0
2024-01-29 Innocenzo Michael CEO, PECO Energy Co. A - A-Award 2024 Restricted Stock Units 7721 0
2024-01-29 Innocenzo Michael CEO, PECO Energy Co. D - M-Exempt 2023 Restricted Stock Units 2251 0
2024-01-29 Innocenzo Michael CEO, PECO Energy Co. D - M-Exempt 2022 Restricted Stock Units 2252 0
2024-01-29 Innocenzo Michael CEO, PECO Energy Co. D - M-Exempt 2021 Restricted Stock Units 3046 0
2024-01-29 Innocenzo Michael CEO, PECO Energy Co. D - M-Exempt 2021-2023 Performance Shares 21236 0
2024-01-29 Glockner David EVP Compliance, Audit & Risk A - M-Exempt Common Stock 36523 0
2024-01-29 Glockner David EVP Compliance, Audit & Risk D - F-InKind Common Stock 17838 35.29
2024-01-29 Glockner David EVP Compliance, Audit & Risk D - D-Return Common Stock 11324 35.29
2024-01-29 Glockner David EVP Compliance, Audit & Risk A - A-Award 2021-2023 Performance Shares 36523 0
2024-01-29 Glockner David EVP Compliance, Audit & Risk A - M-Exempt Common Stock 5239 0
2024-01-29 Glockner David EVP Compliance, Audit & Risk A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3873 0
2024-01-29 Glockner David EVP Compliance, Audit & Risk A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3872 0
2024-01-29 Glockner David EVP Compliance, Audit & Risk A - A-Award 2024 Restricted Stock Units 13279 0
2024-01-29 Glockner David EVP Compliance, Audit & Risk D - M-Exempt 2023 Restricted Stock Units 3872 0
2024-01-29 Glockner David EVP Compliance, Audit & Risk D - M-Exempt 2022 Restricted Stock Units 3873 0
2024-01-29 Glockner David EVP Compliance, Audit & Risk D - M-Exempt 2021 Restricted Stock Units 5239 0
2024-01-29 Glockner David EVP Compliance, Audit & Risk D - M-Exempt 2021-2023 Performance Shares 36523 0
2024-01-29 BUTLER CALVIN JR President & CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 64301 0
2024-01-29 BUTLER CALVIN JR President & CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 42240 35.29
2024-01-29 BUTLER CALVIN JR President & CEO D - D-Return Common Stock 17821 35.29
2024-01-29 BUTLER CALVIN JR President & CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 9225 0
2024-01-29 BUTLER CALVIN JR President & CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 8729 0
2024-01-29 BUTLER CALVIN JR President & CEO A - A-Award 2024 Restricted Stock Units 88836 0
2024-01-29 BUTLER CALVIN JR President & CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 21811 0
2024-01-29 BUTLER CALVIN JR President & CEO A - A-Award 2021-2023 Performance Shares 64301 0
2024-01-29 BUTLER CALVIN JR President & CEO D - M-Exempt 2023 Restricted Stock Units 21811 0
2024-01-29 BUTLER CALVIN JR President & CEO D - M-Exempt 2022 Restricted Stock Units 8729 0
2024-01-29 BUTLER CALVIN JR President & CEO D - M-Exempt 2021 Restricted Stock Units 9225 0
2024-01-29 BUTLER CALVIN JR President & CEO D - M-Exempt 2021-2023 Performance Shares 64301 0
2024-01-29 Anthony John Tyler CEO of Pepco Holdings A - M-Exempt Common Stock 9569 0
2024-01-29 Anthony John Tyler CEO of Pepco Holdings D - F-InKind Common Stock 5828 35.29
2024-01-29 Anthony John Tyler CEO of Pepco Holdings D - D-Return Common Stock 3081 35.29
2024-01-29 Anthony John Tyler CEO of Pepco Holdings A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1373 0
2024-01-29 Anthony John Tyler CEO of Pepco Holdings A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2482 0
2024-01-29 Anthony John Tyler CEO of Pepco Holdings A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2481 0
2024-01-29 Anthony John Tyler CEO of Pepco Holdings A - A-Award 2021-2023 Performance Shares 9569 0
2024-01-29 Anthony John Tyler CEO of Pepco Holdings A - A-Award 2024 Restricted Stock Units 8510 0
2024-01-29 Anthony John Tyler CEO of Pepco Holdings D - M-Exempt 2023 Restricted Stock Units 2481 0
2024-01-29 Anthony John Tyler CEO of Pepco Holdings D - M-Exempt 2022 Restricted Stock Units 2482 0
2024-01-29 Anthony John Tyler CEO of Pepco Holdings D - M-Exempt 2021-2023 Performance Shares 9569 0
2024-01-29 Anthony John Tyler CEO of Pepco Holdings D - M-Exempt 2021 Restricted Stock Units 1373 0
2024-01-01 Segedi Bryan K - 0 0
2023-12-31 YOUNG JOHN F director A - A-Award Common stock- deferred stock units 1052 39.21
2023-12-31 Rogers Matthew C director A - A-Award Common stock- deferred stock units 1052 39.21
2023-12-31 RICHO ANNA director A - A-Award Common stock- deferred stock units 1052 39.21
2023-12-31 RICHO ANNA director A - A-Award Deferred phantom share equivalents 870 0
2023-12-31 Lillie Charisse R director A - A-Award Common stock- deferred stock units 1052 39.21
2023-12-31 Jojo Linda P director A - A-Award Common stock- deferred stock units 1052 39.21
2023-12-31 Cheshire Marjorie Rodgers director A - A-Award Common stock- deferred stock units 1052 39.21
2023-12-31 Cheshire Marjorie Rodgers director A - A-Award Deferred phantom share equivalents 287 0
2023-12-31 BOWERS WILLIAM P director A - A-Award Common stock- deferred stock units 1052 39.21
2023-12-31 BOWERS WILLIAM P director A - A-Award Deferred phantom share equivalents 1184 0
2023-12-31 Anderson Anthony director A - A-Award Common stock- deferred stock units 1052 39.21
2023-12-31 Littleton Gayle EVP & Chief Legal Officer A - M-Exempt Common stock 29351 0
2023-12-31 Littleton Gayle EVP & Chief Legal Officer D - F-InKind Common stock 9065 35.9
2023-12-31 Littleton Gayle EVP & Chief Legal Officer D - M-Exempt Retention RSUs 29351 0
2023-12-02 Innocenzo Michael CEO, PECO Energy Co. A - M-Exempt Common stock 19776 0
2023-12-02 Innocenzo Michael CEO, PECO Energy Co. D - F-InKind Common stock 9144 38.99
2023-12-02 Innocenzo Michael CEO, PECO Energy Co. D - M-Exempt Retention RSUs 19776 0
2023-10-30 Kleczynski Robert A SVP & Corp Controller A - A-Award Deferred Comp Phantom Share Equivalents 27 0
2023-10-13 Kleczynski Robert A SVP & Corp Controller A - A-Award Deferred Comp Phantom Share Equivalents 26 0
2023-09-30 YOUNG JOHN F director A - A-Award Common stock- deferred stock units 1017 40.58
2023-09-30 Rogers Matthew C director A - A-Award Common stock- deferred stock units 1017 40.58
2023-09-30 RICHO ANNA director A - A-Award Common stock- deferred stock units 674 40.58
2023-09-30 RICHO ANNA director A - A-Award Deferred phantom share equivalents 539 0
2023-09-30 Lillie Charisse R director A - A-Award Common stock- deferred stock units 1017 40.58
2023-09-30 Jojo Linda P director A - A-Award Common stock- deferred stock units 1017 40.58
2023-09-30 Cheshire Marjorie Rodgers director A - A-Award Common stock- deferred stock units 1017 40.58
2023-09-30 Cheshire Marjorie Rodgers director A - A-Award Deferred phantom share equivalents 273 0
2023-09-30 BOWERS WILLIAM P director A - A-Award Common stock- deferred stock units 1017 40.58
2023-09-30 BOWERS WILLIAM P director A - A-Award Deferred phantom share equivalents 1125 0
2023-09-30 Anderson Anthony director A - A-Award Common stock- deferred stock units 1017 40.58
2023-09-29 Kleczynski Robert A SVP & Corp Controller A - A-Award Deferred Comp Phantom Share Equivalents 28 0
2023-09-15 Kleczynski Robert A SVP & Corp Controller A - A-Award Deferred Comp Phantom Share Equivalents 22 0
2023-08-30 Kleczynski Robert A SVP & Corp Controller A - A-Award Deferred Comp Phantom Share Equivalents 21 0
2023-08-15 Kleczynski Robert A SVP & Corp Controller A - A-Award Deferred Comp Phantom Share Equivalents 22 0
2023-07-31 Kleczynski Robert A SVP & Corp Controller A - A-Award Deferred Comp Phantom Share Equivalents 18 0
2023-08-01 RICHO ANNA director D - Common Stock 0 0
2023-07-14 Kleczynski Robert A SVP & Corp Controller A - A-Award Deferred Comp Phantom Share Equivalents 20 0
2023-06-30 Kleczynski Robert A SVP & Corp Controller A - A-Award Restricted Stock Unit Award (01/23/2023) 486 0
2023-06-30 Kleczynski Robert A SVP & Corp Controller A - A-Award Deferred Comp Phantom Share Equivalents 20 0
2023-06-30 Kleczynski Robert A SVP & Corp Controller D - Common Stock 0 0
2023-06-30 Kleczynski Robert A SVP & Corp Controller D - Restricted Stock Unit Award (01/25/2021) 1348 0
2023-06-30 Kleczynski Robert A SVP & Corp Controller D - Restricted Stock Unit Award (01/28/2022 2327 0
2023-06-30 Kleczynski Robert A SVP & Corp Controller D - Restricted Unit Award (01/23/2023)Stock 3536 0
2023-06-30 Kleczynski Robert A SVP & Corp Controller D - Restricted Stock Unit Award (02/25/2022) 20990 0
2023-06-30 Kleczynski Robert A SVP & Corp Controller D - Deferred Compensation Phantom Share Equivalents 1438 0
2023-06-30 YOUNG JOHN F director A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 1029 40.08
2023-06-30 Rogers Matthew C director A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 758 40.08
2023-06-30 Lillie Charisse R director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation - Phantom Share Equivalents 25 0
2023-06-30 Lillie Charisse R director A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 758 40.08
2023-06-30 Jojo Linda P director A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 1029 40.08
2023-06-30 Cheshire Marjorie Rodgers director A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 1029 40.08
2023-06-30 Cheshire Marjorie Rodgers director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation - Phantom Share Equivalents 245 0
2023-06-30 BOWERS WILLIAM P director A - A-Award Commmon Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 1029 40.08
2023-06-30 BOWERS WILLIAM P director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation - Phantom Share Equivalents 1003 0
2023-06-30 Anderson Anthony director A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 1029 40.08
2023-04-25 Rogers Matthew C director D - Common stock 0 0
2023-04-25 Lillie Charisse R director D - Common stock 0 0
2023-04-25 Lillie Charisse R director D - Phantom Share Equivalents 3429 0
2023-03-31 YOUNG JOHN F director A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 1027 40.18
2023-03-31 JOSKOW PAUL L director A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 1027 40.18
2023-03-31 Jojo Linda P director A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 1027 40.18
2023-03-31 GUTIERREZ CARLOS M director A - A-Award Common Stock 1027 40.18
2023-03-31 Cheshire Marjorie Rodgers director A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 1027 40.18
2023-03-31 Cheshire Marjorie Rodgers director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation - Phantom Share Equivalents 216 0
2023-03-31 BOWERS WILLIAM P director A - A-Award Commmon Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 1027 40.18
2023-03-31 BOWERS WILLIAM P director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation - Phantom Share Equivalents 865 0
2023-03-31 BERZIN ANN C director A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 1027 40.18
2023-03-31 Anderson Anthony director A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 1027 40.18
2023-03-17 Khouzami Carim V CEO Baltimore Gas & Elec. D - S-Sale Common Stock 6000 41.65
2023-01-29 Jones Jeanne M Exec VP & CFO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 19776 0
2023-01-29 Jones Jeanne M Exec VP & CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 6745 41.69
2023-01-29 Jones Jeanne M Exec VP & CFO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Unit Award 01/29/2018 19776 0
2023-01-23 Trpik Joseph R JR Senior VP & Corp. Controller A - M-Exempt Common Stock 11173 0
2023-01-23 Trpik Joseph R JR Senior VP & Corp. Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 3440 41.82
2023-01-23 Trpik Joseph R JR Senior VP & Corp. Controller D - D-Return Common Stock 5168 41.82
2023-01-23 Trpik Joseph R JR Senior VP & Corp. Controller A - A-Award 2023 Restricted Stock Units 3946 0
2023-01-23 Trpik Joseph R JR Senior VP & Corp. Controller D - M-Exempt 2022 Restricted Stock Units 1288 0
2023-01-23 Trpik Joseph R JR Senior VP & Corp. Controller D - M-Exempt 2021 Restricted Stock Units 1324 0
2023-01-23 Trpik Joseph R JR Senior VP & Corp. Controller D - M-Exempt Earned Performance RSU 7298 0
2023-01-23 Quiniones Gil C CEO of Commonwealth Edison A - A-Award 2023 Restricted Stock Units 9383 0
2023-01-23 Quiniones Gil C CEO of Commonwealth Edison D - M-Exempt 2022 Restricted Stock Units 3130 0
2023-01-23 Quiniones Gil C CEO of Commonwealth Edison A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3130 0
2023-01-23 Quiniones Gil C CEO of Commonwealth Edison D - F-InKind Common Stock 1083 41.82
2023-01-23 Littleton Gayle EVP & General Counsel A - A-Award 2023 Restricted Stock Units 13928 0
2023-01-23 Littleton Gayle EVP & General Counsel A - M-Exempt Common Stock 8004 0
2023-01-23 Littleton Gayle EVP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 2505 41.82
2023-01-23 Littleton Gayle EVP & General Counsel D - M-Exempt 2022 Restricted Stock Units 3554 0
2023-01-23 Littleton Gayle EVP & General Counsel D - M-Exempt 2021 Restricted Stock Units 4450 0
2023-01-23 Khouzami Carim V CEO Baltimore Gas & Elec. A - M-Exempt Common Stock 24110 0
2023-01-23 Khouzami Carim V CEO Baltimore Gas & Elec. D - F-InKind Common Stock 8225 41.82
2023-01-23 Khouzami Carim V CEO Baltimore Gas & Elec. D - D-Return Common Stock 5387 41.82
2023-01-23 Khouzami Carim V CEO Baltimore Gas & Elec. A - A-Award 2023 Restricted Stock Units 6516 0
2023-01-23 Khouzami Carim V CEO Baltimore Gas & Elec. D - M-Exempt 2022 Restricted Stock Units 2173 0
2023-01-23 Khouzami Carim V CEO Baltimore Gas & Elec. D - M-Exempt 2021 Restricted Stock Units 2939 0
2023-01-23 Khouzami Carim V CEO Baltimore Gas & Elec. D - M-Exempt Earned Performance RSU 16198 0
2023-01-23 Jones Jeanne M Exec VP & CFO A - A-Award 2023 Restricted Stock Units 13928 0
2023-01-23 Jones Jeanne M Exec VP & CFO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 10377 0
2023-01-23 Jones Jeanne M Exec VP & CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 3213 41.82
2023-01-23 Jones Jeanne M Exec VP & CFO D - D-Return Common Stock 2364 41.82
2023-01-23 Jones Jeanne M Exec VP & CFO D - M-Exempt 2022 Restricted Stock Units 1317 0
2023-01-23 Jones Jeanne M Exec VP & CFO D - M-Exempt 2021 Restricted Stock Units 1214 0
2023-01-23 Jones Jeanne M Exec VP & CFO D - M-Exempt Earned Performance RSU 6691 0
2023-01-23 Innocenzo Michael CEO of PECO Energy A - M-Exempt Common Stock 24110 0
2023-01-23 Innocenzo Michael CEO of PECO Energy D - F-InKind Common Stock 7738 44.44
2023-01-23 Innocenzo Michael CEO of PECO Energy D - D-Return Common Stock 11101 44.44
2023-01-23 Innocenzo Michael CEO of PECO Energy A - A-Award 2023 Restricted Stock Units 6516 0
2023-01-23 Innocenzo Michael CEO of PECO Energy D - M-Exempt 2022 Restricted Stock Units 2173 0
2023-01-23 Innocenzo Michael CEO of PECO Energy D - M-Exempt 2021 Restricted Stock Units 2939 0
2023-01-23 Innocenzo Michael CEO of PECO Energy D - M-Exempt Earned Performance RSU 16198 0
2023-01-23 Glockner David EVP Compliance, Audit & Risk A - M-Exempt Common Stock 60243 0
2023-01-23 Glockner David EVP Compliance, Audit & Risk D - F-InKind Common Stock 23257 41.82
2023-01-23 Glockner David EVP Compliance, Audit & Risk D - D-Return Common Stock 25606 41.82
2023-01-23 Glockner David EVP Compliance, Audit & Risk A - A-Award 2023 Restricted Stock Units 11206 0
2023-01-23 Glockner David EVP Compliance, Audit & Risk D - M-Exempt 2022 Restricted Stock Units 3737 0
2023-01-23 Glockner David EVP Compliance, Audit & Risk D - M-Exempt 2021 Restricted Stock Units 5055 0
2023-01-23 Glockner David EVP Compliance, Audit & Risk D - M-Exempt Earned Performance RSU 43923 0
2023-01-23 BUTLER CALVIN JR President & CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 67253 0
2023-01-23 BUTLER CALVIN JR President & CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 26477 41.82
2023-01-23 BUTLER CALVIN JR President & CEO A - A-Award 2023 Restricted Stock Units 63128 0
2023-01-23 BUTLER CALVIN JR President & CEO D - D-Return Common Stock 23639 41.82
2023-01-23 BUTLER CALVIN JR President & CEO D - M-Exempt 2022 Restricted Stock Units 8422 0
2023-01-23 BUTLER CALVIN JR President & CEO D - M-Exempt 2021 Restricted Stock Units 8900 0
2023-01-23 BUTLER CALVIN JR President & CEO D - M-Exempt Earned Performance RSU 42571 0
2023-01-23 Anthony John Tyler CEO of Pepco Holdings LLC A - M-Exempt Common Stock 12281 0
2023-01-23 Anthony John Tyler CEO of Pepco Holdings LLC D - F-InKind Common Stock 4354 41.82
2023-01-23 Anthony John Tyler CEO of Pepco Holdings LLC D - D-Return Common Stock 2358 41.82
2023-01-23 Anthony John Tyler CEO of Pepco Holdings LLC A - A-Award 2023 Restricted Stock Units 7181 0
2023-01-23 Anthony John Tyler CEO of Pepco Holdings LLC D - M-Exempt 2022 Restricted Stock Units 2396 0
2023-01-23 Anthony John Tyler CEO of Pepco Holdings LLC D - M-Exempt 2021 Restricted Stock Units 1324 0
2023-01-23 Anthony John Tyler CEO of Pepco Holdings LLC D - M-Exempt Earned Performance RSU 7298 0
2023-01-16 Anthony John Tyler CEO of Pepco Holdings LLC D - M-Exempt Common Stock 6592 0
2023-01-16 Anthony John Tyler CEO of Pepco Holdings LLC D - F-InKind Common Stock 2498 43.38
2023-01-16 Anthony John Tyler CEO of Pepco Holdings LLC D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Unit Award 01/16/2020 6592 43.38
2022-12-31 YOUNG JOHN F director A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 936 41.42
2022-12-31 JOSKOW PAUL L director A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 936 41.42
2022-12-31 Jojo Linda P director A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 936 41.42
2022-12-31 GUTIERREZ CARLOS M director A - A-Award Common Stock 936 41.42
2022-12-31 Cheshire Marjorie Rodgers director A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 936 41.42
2022-12-31 Cheshire Marjorie Rodgers director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation - Phantom Share Equivalents 335 43.23
2022-12-31 BOWERS WILLIAM P director A - A-Award Commmon Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 936 41.42
2022-12-31 BERZIN ANN C director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation - Phantom Share Equivalents 914 43.23
2022-12-31 BERZIN ANN C director A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 936 41.42
2022-12-31 Anderson Anthony director A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 936 41.42
2022-10-28 Trpik Joseph R JR SVP & Corp. Controller A - A-Award Restricted Stock Unit Award (10/28/2022) 25000 0
2022-10-17 Jones Jeanne M EVP & CFO D - Restricted Stock Unit Award (01/29/2018) 19776 0
2022-10-17 Jones Jeanne M EVP & CFO D - Common Stock 0 0
2022-09-30 JOSKOW PAUL L A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 845 45.84
2022-09-30 GUTIERREZ CARLOS M A - A-Award Common Stock 845 45.84
2022-09-30 YOUNG JOHN F A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 845 45.84
2022-09-30 Jojo Linda P A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 845 45.84
2022-09-30 BERZIN ANN C A - A-Award Deferred Compensation - Phantom Share Equivalents 1053 37.46
2022-09-30 BERZIN ANN C A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 845 45.84
2022-09-30 Cheshire Marjorie Rodgers A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 845 45.84
2022-09-30 Cheshire Marjorie Rodgers A - A-Award Deferred Compensation - Phantom Share Equivalents 383 37.46
2022-09-30 BOWERS WILLIAM P A - A-Award Commmon Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 845 45.84
2022-09-30 Anderson Anthony A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 845 45.84
2022-06-30 YOUNG JOHN F A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 842 46.01
2022-06-30 JOSKOW PAUL L A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 842 46.01
2022-06-30 Jojo Linda P A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 842 46.01
2022-06-30 GUTIERREZ CARLOS M A - A-Award Common Stock 842 46.01
2022-06-30 Cheshire Marjorie Rodgers A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 842 46.01
2022-06-30 Cheshire Marjorie Rodgers director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation - Phantom Share Equivalents 320 0
2022-06-30 BOWERS WILLIAM P A - A-Award Commmon Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 842 46.01
2022-06-30 BERZIN ANN C A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 842 46.01
2022-06-30 Anderson Anthony A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 842 46.01
2022-05-18 Anthony John Tyler CEO of Pepco Holdings LLC D - S-Sale Common Stock 3880 47.49
2022-05-10 Trpik Joseph R JR SVP & Corp. Controller D - Common Stock 0 0
2022-05-10 Trpik Joseph R JR SVP & Corp. Controller I - Common Stock 0 0
2022-05-10 Trpik Joseph R JR SVP & Corp. Controller D - Common Stock (401k plan shares) 0 0
2022-05-10 Trpik Joseph R JR SVP & Corp. Controller D - Earned Performance RSU 7298 0
2022-05-10 Trpik Joseph R JR SVP & Corp. Controller D - Deferred Phantom Shares 508 0
2022-05-10 Trpik Joseph R JR SVP & Corp. Controller D - Restricted Stock Unit Award (05/02/2022) 906 0
2022-05-10 Trpik Joseph R JR SVP & Corp. Controller D - Restricted Stock Unit Award (01/27/2020) 1234 0
2022-05-10 Trpik Joseph R JR SVP & Corp. Controller D - Restricted Stock Unit Award (01/25/2021) 2589 0
2022-05-10 Trpik Joseph R JR SVP & Corp. Controller D - Restricted Stock Unit Award (01/28/2022) 2871 0
2022-04-01 Souza Fabian SVP & Corporate Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 21400 47.61
2022-03-31 YOUNG JOHN F A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 889 43.6
2022-03-31 SHATTUCK MAYO A III A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 889 43.6
2022-03-31 JOSKOW PAUL L A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 889 43.6
2022-03-31 Jojo Linda P A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 889 43.6
2022-03-31 GUTIERREZ CARLOS M A - A-Award Common Stock 889 43.6
2022-03-31 Cheshire Marjorie Rodgers director A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 889 43.6
2022-03-31 Cheshire Marjorie Rodgers A - A-Award Deferred Compensation - Phantom Share Equivalents 304 47.63
2022-03-31 Cheshire Marjorie Rodgers director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation - Phantom Share Equivalents 304 0
2022-03-31 BOWERS WILLIAM P A - A-Award Commmon Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 889 43.6
2022-03-31 BERZIN ANN C A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 889 43.6
2022-03-31 Anderson Anthony A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 889 43.6
2022-03-24 BERZIN ANN C A - I-Discretionary Deferred Compensation - Phantom Share Equivalents 13289 44.47
2022-03-24 Khouzami Carim V CEO BGE D - S-Sale Common Stock 3962 44.35
2022-03-23 Cheshire Marjorie Rodgers A - I-Discretionary Deferred Compensation - Phantom Share Equivalents 570 43.7
2022-03-23 Cheshire Marjorie Rodgers director A - I-Discretionary Deferred Compensation - Phantom Share Equivalents 570 0
2022-03-22 BOWERS WILLIAM P A - P-Purchase Common Stock 4500 43.56
2022-02-08 Souza Fabian SVP & Controller A - A-Award Earned Performance RSU 12811 0
2022-02-08 Souza Fabian SVP & Controller A - A-Award 2022 Restricted Stock Units 5001 0
2022-02-08 Quiniones Gil C CEO of ComEd A - A-Award 2022 Restricted Stock Units 9106 0
2022-02-08 Nigro Joseph Sr EVP & CFO A - A-Award Earned Performance RSU 46861 0
2022-02-08 Nigro Joseph Sr EVP & CFO A - A-Award 2022 Restricted Stock Units 22976 0
2022-02-08 Littleton Gayle EVP & General Counsel A - A-Award 2022 Restricted Stock Units 10339 0
2022-02-08 Khouzami Carim V CEO of BGE A - A-Award Earned Performance RSU 16198 0
2022-02-08 Khouzami Carim V CEO of BGE A - A-Award 2022 Restricted Stock Units 6324 0
2022-02-08 Innocenzo Michael CEO of PECO A - A-Award Earned Performance RSU 16198 0
2022-02-08 Innocenzo Michael CEO of PECO A - A-Award 2022 Restricted Stock Units 6324 0
2022-02-08 Glockner David EVP Compliance & Audit A - A-Award Earned Performance RSU 43923 0
2022-02-08 Glockner David EVP Compliance & Audit A - A-Award 2022 Restricted Stock Units 10875 0
2022-02-08 Crane Christopher M. President and CEO A - A-Award Earned Performance RSU 215793 0
2022-02-08 Crane Christopher M. President and CEO A - A-Award 2022 Restricted Stock Units 84243 0
2022-02-08 BUTLER CALVIN JR Sr EVP & Chf Operating Officer A - A-Award Earned Performance RSU 42571 0
2022-02-08 BUTLER CALVIN JR Sr EVP & Chf Operating Officer A - A-Award 2022 Restricted Stock Units 24507 0
2022-02-08 Anthony John Tyler CEO of Pepco Holdings LLC A - A-Award Earned Performance RSU 7298 0
2022-02-08 Anthony John Tyler CEO of Pepco Holdings LLC A - A-Award 2022 Restricted Stock Units 6970 0
2022-02-08 Crane Christopher M. President and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 109928 0
2022-02-08 Crane Christopher M. President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 48723 57.33
2022-02-08 Crane Christopher M. President and CEO D - D-Return Common Stock 61205 57.33
2022-02-08 Crane Christopher M. President and CEO A - A-Award Performance Shares 2019-2021 109928 0
2022-02-08 Crane Christopher M. President and CEO D - M-Exempt Performance Shares 2019-2021 109928 0
2022-02-01 Littleton Gayle EVP & General Counsel D - Common stock 0 0
2022-02-01 Littleton Gayle EVP & General Counsel D - 2021 Restricted Stock Units 6548 0
2022-02-01 Littleton Gayle EVP & General Counsel D - Restricted Stock Unit Award 11/09/2020 20834 0
2022-01-28 Souza Fabian SVP & Controller A - M-Exempt Common Stock 6526 0
2022-01-28 Souza Fabian SVP & Controller A - M-Exempt Common Stock 6526 0
2022-01-28 Souza Fabian SVP & Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 2173 57.33
2022-01-28 Souza Fabian SVP & Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 2173 57.33
2022-01-28 Souza Fabian SVP & Controller D - D-Return Common Stock 4353 57.33
2022-01-28 Souza Fabian SVP & Controller D - D-Return Common Stock 4353 57.33
2022-01-28 Souza Fabian SVP & Controller A - A-Award Performance Shares 2019-2021 6526 0
2022-01-28 Souza Fabian SVP & Controller A - A-Award Performance Shares 2019-2021 6526 0
2022-01-28 Souza Fabian SVP & Controller D - M-Exempt Performance Shares 2019-2021 6526 0
2022-01-28 Souza Fabian SVP & Controller D - M-Exempt Performance Shares 2019-2021 6526 0
2022-01-28 Nigro Joseph Sr EVP & CFO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 23872 0
2022-01-28 Nigro Joseph Sr EVP & CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 9516 57.33
2022-01-28 Nigro Joseph Sr EVP & CFO D - D-Return Common Stock 14356 57.33
2022-01-28 Nigro Joseph Sr EVP & CFO A - A-Award Performance Shares 2019-2021 23872 0
2022-01-28 Nigro Joseph Sr EVP & CFO D - M-Exempt Performance Shares 2019-2021 23872 0
2022-01-28 MCHUGH JAMES EVP & Chief Commercial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 16740 0
2022-01-28 MCHUGH JAMES EVP & Chief Commercial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 6569 57.33
2022-01-28 MCHUGH JAMES EVP & Chief Commercial Officer D - D-Return Common Stock 10171 57.33
2022-01-28 MCHUGH JAMES EVP & Chief Commercial Officer A - A-Award Performance Shares 2019-2021 16740 0
2022-01-28 MCHUGH JAMES EVP & Chief Commercial Officer D - M-Exempt Performance Shares 2019-2021 16740 0
2022-01-28 Khouzami Carim V CEO BGE A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3718 0
2022-01-28 Khouzami Carim V CEO BGE D - F-InKind Common Stock 1238 57.33
2022-01-28 Khouzami Carim V CEO BGE D - D-Return Common Stock 2480 57.33
2022-01-28 Khouzami Carim V CEO BGE A - A-Award Performance Shares 2019-2021 3718 0
2022-01-28 Khouzami Carim V CEO BGE D - M-Exempt Performance Shares 2019-2021 3718 0
2022-01-28 Innocenzo Michael CEO PECO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 8251 0
2022-01-28 Innocenzo Michael CEO PECO D - F-InKind Common Stock 2585 57.33
2022-01-28 Innocenzo Michael CEO PECO D - D-Return Common Stock 5666 57.33
2022-01-28 Innocenzo Michael CEO PECO A - A-Award Performance Shares 2019-2021 8251 0
2022-01-28 Innocenzo Michael CEO PECO D - M-Exempt Performance Shares 2019-2021 8251 0
2022-01-28 Hanson Bryan Craig EVP & Chief Generation Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 14491 0
2022-01-28 Hanson Bryan Craig EVP & Chief Generation Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 6445 57.33
2022-01-28 Hanson Bryan Craig EVP & Chief Generation Officer D - D-Return Common Stock 8046 57.33
2022-01-28 Hanson Bryan Craig EVP & Chief Generation Officer A - A-Award Performance Shares 2019-2021 14491 0
2022-01-28 Hanson Bryan Craig EVP & Chief Generation Officer D - M-Exempt Performance Shares 2019-2021 14491 0
2022-01-28 Dominguez Joseph CEO Exelon Generation A - M-Exempt Common Stock 11293 0
2022-01-28 Dominguez Joseph CEO Exelon Generation D - F-InKind Common Stock 4985 57.33
2022-01-28 Dominguez Joseph CEO Exelon Generation D - D-Return Common Stock 6308 57.33
2022-01-28 Dominguez Joseph CEO Exelon Generation A - A-Award Performance Shares 2019-2021 11293 0
2022-01-28 Dominguez Joseph CEO Exelon Generation D - M-Exempt Performance Shares 2019-2021 11293 0
2022-01-28 BUTLER CALVIN JR Sr EVP & Chf Operating Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 8251 0
2022-01-28 BUTLER CALVIN JR Sr EVP & Chf Operating Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 3265 57.33
2022-01-28 BUTLER CALVIN JR Sr EVP & Chf Operating Officer D - D-Return Common Stock 4986 57.33
2022-01-31 BUTLER CALVIN JR Sr EVP & Chf Operating Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 15258 57.46
2022-01-31 BUTLER CALVIN JR Sr EVP & Chf Operating Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 11450 57.82
2022-01-28 BUTLER CALVIN JR Sr EVP & Chf Operating Officer A - A-Award Performance Shares 2019-2021 8251 0
2022-01-28 BUTLER CALVIN JR Sr EVP & Chf Operating Officer D - M-Exempt Performance Shares 2019-2021 8251 0
2022-01-28 Anthony John Tyler CEO of Pepco Holdings LLC A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3718 0
2022-01-28 Anthony John Tyler CEO of Pepco Holdings LLC D - F-InKind Common Stock 1238 57.33
2022-01-28 Anthony John Tyler CEO of Pepco Holdings LLC D - D-Return Common Stock 2480 57.33
2022-01-28 Anthony John Tyler CEO of Pepco Holdings LLC A - A-Award Performance Shares 2019-2021 3718 0
2022-01-28 Anthony John Tyler CEO of Pepco Holdings LLC D - M-Exempt Performance Shares 2019-2021 3718 0
2022-01-06 Anthony John Tyler CEO Pepco Holdings LLC A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2862 0
2022-01-06 Anthony John Tyler CEO Pepco Holdings LLC D - F-InKind Common Stock 1087 56.73
2022-01-06 Anthony John Tyler CEO Pepco Holdings LLC D - M-Exempt 2021 Restricted Stock Units 974 0
2022-01-06 Anthony John Tyler CEO Pepco Holdings LLC D - M-Exempt 2020 Restricted Stock Units 929 0
2022-01-06 Anthony John Tyler CEO Pepco Holdings LLC D - M-Exempt 2019 Restricted Stock Units 959 0
2022-01-06 Crane Christopher M. President and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 84514 0
2022-01-06 Crane Christopher M. President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 34924 56.73
2022-01-06 Crane Christopher M. President and CEO D - M-Exempt 2021 Restricted Stock Units 28810 0
2022-01-06 Crane Christopher M. President and CEO D - M-Exempt 2020 Restricted Stock Units 27450 0
2022-01-06 Crane Christopher M. President and CEO D - M-Exempt 2019 Restricted Stock Units 28254 0
2022-01-06 Innocenzo Michael CEO PECO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 6346 0
2022-01-06 Innocenzo Michael CEO PECO D - F-InKind Common Stock 2117 56.73
2022-01-06 Innocenzo Michael CEO PECO D - M-Exempt 2021 Restricted Stock Units 2163 0
2022-01-06 Innocenzo Michael CEO PECO D - M-Exempt 2020 Restricted Stock Units 2060 0
2022-01-06 Innocenzo Michael CEO PECO D - M-Exempt 2019 Restricted Stock Units 2122 0
2022-01-06 Khouzami Carim V CEO BGE A - M-Exempt Common Stock 5183 0
2022-01-06 Khouzami Carim V CEO BGE D - M-Exempt 2021 Restricted Stock Units 2163 0
2022-01-06 Khouzami Carim V CEO BGE D - F-InKind Common Stock 1855 56.73
2022-01-06 Khouzami Carim V CEO BGE D - M-Exempt 2020 Restricted Stock Units 2060 0
2022-01-06 Khouzami Carim V CEO BGE D - M-Exempt 2019 Restricted Stock Units 959 0
2022-01-06 MCHUGH JAMES EVP & Chief Commercial Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 12874 0
2022-01-06 MCHUGH JAMES EVP & Chief Commercial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 3792 56.73
2022-01-06 MCHUGH JAMES EVP & Chief Commercial Officer D - M-Exempt 2021 Restricted Stock Units 4388 0
2022-01-06 MCHUGH JAMES EVP & Chief Commercial Officer D - M-Exempt 2020 Restricted Stock Units 4181 0
2022-01-06 MCHUGH JAMES EVP & Chief Commercial Officer D - M-Exempt 2019 Restricted Stock Units 4305 0
2022-01-06 BUTLER CALVIN JR Sr EVP & Chf Operating Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 54086 0
2022-01-06 BUTLER CALVIN JR Sr EVP & Chf Operating Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 18896 56.73
2022-01-06 BUTLER CALVIN JR Sr EVP & Chf Operating Officer D - M-Exempt 2021 Restricted Stock Units 6548 0
2022-01-06 BUTLER CALVIN JR Sr EVP & Chf Operating Officer D - M-Exempt 2020 Restricted Stock Units 5416 0
2022-01-06 BUTLER CALVIN JR Sr EVP & Chf Operating Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Unit Award 01/29/2018 40000 0
2022-01-06 BUTLER CALVIN JR Sr EVP & Chf Operating Officer D - M-Exempt 2019 Restricted Stock Units 2122 0
2022-01-06 Glockner David EVP Compliance & Audit A - M-Exempt Common Stock 9258 0
2022-01-06 Glockner David EVP Compliance & Audit D - F-InKind Common Stock 2842 56.73
2022-01-06 Glockner David EVP Compliance & Audit D - M-Exempt 2021 Restricted Stock Units 3720 0
2022-01-06 Glockner David EVP Compliance & Audit D - M-Exempt 2020 Restricted Stock Units 5538 0
2022-01-06 Dominguez Joseph CEO Exelon Generation A - M-Exempt Common Stock 18685 0
2022-01-06 Dominguez Joseph CEO Exelon Generation D - F-InKind Common Stock 5732 56.73
2022-01-06 Dominguez Joseph CEO Exelon Generation D - M-Exempt 2021 Restricted Stock Units 2961 0
2022-01-06 Dominguez Joseph CEO Exelon Generation D - M-Exempt 2020 Restricted Stock Units 2820 0
2022-01-06 Dominguez Joseph CEO Exelon Generation D - M-Exempt 2019 Restricted Stock Units 2904 0
2022-01-06 Dominguez Joseph CEO Exelon Generation D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Unit Award 01/29/2018 10000 0
2022-01-06 Hanson Bryan Craig EVP & Chief Generation Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 53109 0
2022-01-06 Hanson Bryan Craig EVP & Chief Generation Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 21225 56.73
2022-01-06 Hanson Bryan Craig EVP & Chief Generation Officer D - M-Exempt 2021 Restricted Stock Units 5764 0
2022-01-06 Hanson Bryan Craig EVP & Chief Generation Officer D - M-Exempt 2020 Restricted Stock Units 3619 0
2022-01-06 Hanson Bryan Craig EVP & Chief Generation Officer D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Unit Award 01/29/2018 40000 0
2022-01-06 Hanson Bryan Craig EVP & Chief Generation Officer D - M-Exempt 2019 Restricted Stock Units 3727 0
2022-01-06 Nigro Joseph Sr EVP & CFO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 59957 0
2022-01-06 Nigro Joseph Sr EVP & CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 21370 56.73
2022-01-06 Nigro Joseph Sr EVP & CFO D - M-Exempt 2021 Restricted Stock Units 7859 0
2022-01-06 Nigro Joseph Sr EVP & CFO D - M-Exempt 2020 Restricted Stock Units 5961 0
2022-01-06 Nigro Joseph Sr EVP & CFO D - M-Exempt Restricted Stock Unit Award 01/29/2018 40000 0
2022-01-06 Nigro Joseph Sr EVP & CFO D - M-Exempt 2019 Restricted Stock Units 6137 0
2022-01-06 Souza Fabian SVP & Controller A - M-Exempt Common Stock 5019 0
2022-01-06 Souza Fabian SVP & Controller A - M-Exempt Common Stock 5019 0
2022-01-06 Souza Fabian SVP & Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 1800 56.73
2022-01-06 Souza Fabian SVP & Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 1800 56.73
2022-01-06 Souza Fabian SVP & Controller D - M-Exempt 2021 Restricted Stock Units 1710 0
2022-01-06 Souza Fabian SVP & Controller D - M-Exempt 2021 Restricted Stock Units 1710 0
2022-01-06 Souza Fabian SVP & Controller D - M-Exempt 2020 Restricted Stock Units 1630 0
2022-01-06 Souza Fabian SVP & Controller D - M-Exempt 2020 Restricted Stock Units 1630 0
2022-01-06 Souza Fabian SVP & Controller D - M-Exempt 2019 Restricted Stock Units 1679 0
2022-01-06 Souza Fabian SVP & Controller D - M-Exempt 2019 Restricted Stock Units 1679 0
2021-12-31 GUTIERREZ CARLOS M director A - A-Award Common Stock 531 53.91
2021-12-31 YOUNG JOHN F director A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 719 53.91
2021-12-31 SHATTUCK MAYO A III director A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 719 53.91
2021-12-31 Richardson John M director A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 719 53.91
2021-12-31 LAWLESS ROBERT J director A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 719 53.91
2021-12-31 LAWLESS ROBERT J director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation - Phantom Share Equivalents 801 0
2021-12-31 JOSKOW PAUL L director A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 719 53.91
2021-12-31 Jojo Linda P director A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 719 53.91
2021-12-31 DE BALMANN YVES C director A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 719 53.91
2021-12-31 Cheshire Marjorie Rodgers director A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 719 53.91
2021-12-31 Cheshire Marjorie Rodgers director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation - Phantom Share Equivalents 251 0
2021-12-31 BRLAS LAURIE director A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 719 53.91
2021-12-31 BOWERS WILLIAM P director A - A-Award Commmon Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 719 53.91
2021-12-31 BOWERS WILLIAM P director A - A-Award Commmon Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 719 53.91
2021-12-31 BERZIN ANN C director A - A-Award Deferred Compensation - Phantom Share Equivalents 656 0
2021-12-31 BERZIN ANN C director A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 719 53.91
2021-12-31 Anderson Anthony director A - A-Award Common Stock (Deferred Stock Units) 719 53.91
2021-12-15 MCHUGH JAMES EVP & Chief Commercial Officer A - A-Award Deferred Phantom Shares 40 0
2021-12-06 MCHUGH JAMES EVP & Chief Commercial Officer D - Common Stock 0 0
2021-12-06 MCHUGH JAMES EVP & Chief Commercial Officer D - Restricted Stock Unit Award (02/04/2019) 4275 0
2021-12-06 MCHUGH JAMES EVP & Chief Commercial Officer D - Restricted Stock Unit Award (01/27/2020) 8301 0
2021-12-06 MCHUGH JAMES EVP & Chief Commercial Officer D - Restricted Stock Unit Award (01/25/2021) 13068 0
2021-12-06 MCHUGH JAMES EVP & Chief Commercial Officer D - Restricted Stock Unit Award (04/05/2021) 20318 0
2021-12-06 MCHUGH JAMES EVP & Chief Commercial Officer D - Deferred Phantom Shares 2175 0
2021-11-19 Anthony John Tyler CEO Pepco Holdings LLC D - Common Stock 0 0
2021-11-19 Anthony John Tyler CEO Pepco Holdings LLC D - Common Stock (ESPP Shares) 0 0
2021-11-19 Anthony John Tyler CEO Pepco Holdings LLC D - Restricted Stock Unit Award (02/04/2019) 952 0
2021-11-19 Anthony John Tyler CEO Pepco Holdings LLC D - Restricted Stock Unit Award (01/27/2020) 1844 0
2021-11-19 Anthony John Tyler CEO Pepco Holdings LLC D - Restricted Stock Unit Award (01/25/2021) 2902 0
2021-11-19 Anthony John Tyler CEO Pepco Holdings LLC D - Restricted Stock Unit Award (01/16/2020) 5000 0
2021-11-19 Anthony John Tyler CEO Pepco Holdings LLC D - Deferred Phantom Shares 8544 0
2021-11-24 Dominguez Joseph CEO, Exelon Generation A - M-Exempt Common Stock 16000 39.81
2021-11-24 Dominguez Joseph CEO, Exelon Generation D - S-Sale Common Stock 16000 54.39
2021-11-24 Dominguez Joseph CEO, Exelon Generation D - M-Exempt NQ Stock Option (right to buy) 03/12/2012 16000 39.81
2021-11-15 Quiniones Gil C CEO of ComEd D - Common stock 0 0
2021-11-19 Nigro Joseph Sr. EVP & Chief Fin. Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 13000 39.81
2021-11-19 Nigro Joseph Sr. EVP & Chief Fin. Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 13000 53.49
2021-11-19 Nigro Joseph Sr. EVP & Chief Fin. Officer D - M-Exempt NQ Stock Option (right to buy) 03/12/2012 13000 39.81
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Transcripts
Operator:
Hello, and welcome to Exelon's Second Quarter Earnings Call. My name is Gigi, and I'll be your event specialist today. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. Please note that today's webcast is being recorded. During the presentation, we will have a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] It is now my pleasure to turn today's program over to Andrew Plenge, Vice President of Investor Relations. The floor is yours.
Andrew Plenge:
Thank you, Gigi. Good morning, everyone. We're pleased to have you with us for our 2024 second quarter earnings call. Leading the call today are Calvin Butler, Exelon's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Jeanne Jones, Exelon's Chief Financial Officer. Other members of Exelon's senior management team are also with us today, and they will be available to answer your questions following our prepared remarks. Today's presentation, along with our earnings release and other financial information can be found in the Investor Relations section of Exelon's website. We would also like to remind you that today's presentation and the associated earnings release materials contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. You can find the cautionary statements on these risks on Slide 2 of today's presentation or in our SEC filings. In addition, today's presentation includes references to adjusted operating earnings and other non-GAAP measures. Reconciliations between these measures and the nearest equivalent GAAP measures can be found in the appendix of our presentation and in our earnings release. It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Calvin Butler, Exelon's President and CEO.
Calvin Butler:
Thank you, Andrew, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us for the call and are pleased to be reporting a solid second quarter earnings and operational performance, keeping us on track to deliver consistent and stable performance once again. We expect to deliver within our guidance range of $2.40 to $2.50 with the goal of being at the midpoint or better, and we are reaffirming all of our long-term guidance. That includes investing $34.5 billion to grow rate base at 7.5%, resulting in annualized earnings growth of 5% to 7%. For the quarter, we delivered $0.47 per share of adjusted operating earnings, above our expectations, driven primarily by favorable weather in our non-decoupled jurisdictions, along with timing of spend and ComEd distribution revenues. We also performed at operationally high levels, achieving top quartile or top decile reliability performance across the board. We have also continued to make progress on the regulatory front. Our revised Grid Plan process in Illinois is on track and approval by the end of the year is a top priority. Since our last earnings call, we are through two rounds of testimony from staff and intervenors, and we have narrowed open issues with many interveners and staff. We will continue to work with parties to address open items in advance of the evidentiary hearings. We are encouraged that we've been able to reach agreements with key parties like the City of Chicago, the Building Owners and Management Association and the environmental coalition, JNGO [ph]. Each has recognized the progress made in our revised plan and its compliance with the Climate Equitable and Jobs Act, a key focus of the commission. These affirmations are good examples of what differentiates the process this year. Approval of the plan will ensure that Northern Illinois will receive the investment needed to maintain an affordable, resilient, reliable and clean grid for its customers and will support the state's success in attracting new business. In addition, the process for our PECO rate cases remain on track for orders by the end of the year, and Pepco DC's rate case continues, where we await a final decision in its second multiyear plan upon completion of the briefing schedule on August 30. Finally, we received an order in PECO Maryland's second multiyear plan rate case filing, which adopted a one year framework, with the ability to refile for new rates while we await the outcome of a lessons learned process in the state. Now the short rate plan maintains some of the positive elements of multiyear rate making, such as a reconciliation and the ability to update rates next spring offers an opportunity to keep rates more current with cost. All stakeholders, including Exelon, are interested in making sure the investments we make keep us on track to meet the goals of Maryland's Climate Solutions Now Act while appropriately balancing interest across stakeholders, all stakeholders, which includes customers, policymakers and regulators. There are many ways to strike that balance and rate-making constructs are a key tool to do that. We think multiyear plans provide a great foundation offering unparalleled transparency, accountability and alignment, including a reconciliation process that allows all stakeholders to understand how we performed against the approved plan. But alignment on an agreed-upon path forward that works for everyone is critical, particularly since the need to invest in the grid is only growing with increased electrification, diverse and sophisticated power supply and demand technologies and the increased strain on our grid caused by severe weather. The broken investment has only accelerated as the proliferation of artificial intelligence has significantly boosted data center development, as Jeanne will discuss in her remarks. The states are simply too high to lack confidence that we are prioritizing the investments most important to our customers, multiyear plans can provide that confidence and transparency to customers and when done right, ensure alignment with all stakeholders. We are refining our regulatory strategy to follow the lead provided in the final quarter. And more important, we stand ready to engage in a lessons-learned process to ensure we can find common ground on any adjustments to address stakeholders' areas of focus. In the meantime, given the deviation from the approach used by the commission since 2021, we are taking action on the current order and seeking more clarity, as Jeanne will discuss in her remarks. Now turning to our operational performance on Slide 5, you can see that our performance through the first half of the year remained strong. ComEd and PECO Holdings are performing at top decile levels despite ComEd experiencing four times the amount of storm activity in the second quarter versus last year. I just want to pause and say how incredibly grateful I am for the committed employees that serve on the front lines during these increasingly challenging storm seasons. Just in the past few weeks, our ComEd crews headed down to the Gulf region to provide mutual assistance after Hurricane Beryl, only to come back to respond to four ways of back-to-back storms in Illinois, in which there were 41 confirmed tornadoes, impacting 500,000 customers. ComEd experienced the most severe storm in its territory in more than 15 years. And yet, within two days, we had restored 80% of the impacted customers, which is a true testament to the importance of prudent grid investment and our employees’ relentless dedication to our customers. We can’t thank our employees and those providing mutual assistance enough for their commitment to serving all of our customers. This operational excellence is matched on the gas side as well. Now on the safety front, I’m pleased to report that BGE, PECO and Pepco Holdings are all now top decile, with PECO improving from second quartile into the first quartile. Our utilities continue to leverage our new safety observation platform to take action before an incident occurs with over 1,000 supervisors and safety professionals trained on our new tools. ComEd is continuing to build upon this focus with the goal of moving into the top quartile, and we look forward to sharing more on its progress on our next earnings call. Lastly, our customer satisfaction scores remained consistent with prior quarter with ComEd and PECO in the top quartile, Pepco Holdings in the second quartile and BGE in the third quartile. Pepco Holdings and BGE have both made progress toward improving their performances, implementing actions based on the findings from their customer experience, working groups and data analytics. ComEd actions to improve performance include
Jeanne Jones:
Thank you, Calvin. And good morning, everyone. Today, I will cover our second quarter financial update, along with the outlook for the second half of 2024 and our progress on the rate schedule and highlight two projects that demonstrate the breadth of our opportunities associated with growing load and infrastructure demand. Starting on Slide 6, we show our quarter-over-quarter adjusted operating earnings lock. As Calvin mentioned, Exelon earned $0.47 per share in the second quarter of 2024 versus $0.41 in the second quarter of 2023, reflecting higher results of $0.06 per share over the same period. Earnings are higher in the second quarter relative to the same period last year, driven primarily by $0.06 of higher distribution and transmission rates associated with incremental investments and completed rate cases net of associated depreciation. And $0.03 of favorable weather, partially offset by $0.03 of higher interest expense due to higher levels of debt at increased interest rates. As Calvin mentioned, we delivered earnings results above the guidance we provided in our prior quarter call due to favorable weather conditions, early execution of our weather and storm recovery plan and timing of ComEd’s distribution revenues. Operating earnings of $1.16 per share through the first quarter of 2024 reflects 47% projected full year earnings, which is in line with how we’ve affirmed through the first half of 2023. As we look ahead to next quarter, we expect a relative EPS contribution in the third quarter to be largely in line with prior year at approximately 27% of the midpoint of our projected full year earnings guidance range. Our outlook for the second half of 2024 assumes fair and reasonable outcome for Pepco DC’s multiyear plan rate case and the BGE and ComEd reconciliation, and it incorporates July weather and storm activity with the same geothermal conditions for the balance of the year. On a full year basis, we remain on track for operating earnings of $2.40 to $2.50 per share in 2024, and we reaffirm our long-term annualized operating earnings per share guidance range of 5% to 7% and through 2027 with the expectation to be at the midpoint or better of that growth range. Turning to Slide 7, as Calvin highlighted, there have been some important regulatory developments across our utilities that I will review, beginning with ComEd. Coming out of two rounds of staff and intervener testimony, we are encouraged by the support that ComEd revised grid plan is compliant with the requirements of the Climate and Equitable Jobs Act. And that it represents an appropriate balance between affordability and supporting the state’s clean energy goals. With our proposal representing an average annual increase to the total residential customer bill of only 1.8% through 2027 relative to December’s final order. ComEd filed its Solar Parties [ph] testimony with the Illinois Commerce Commission on July 31, marking the end of rebuttal [ph] testimony and another key milestone in the procedural process. The company and parties to the case had into evidentiary hearings in mid-August, followed by the briefing process in September and a proposed ALJ order in mid-October. A final order is expected in December 2024 for rates that will go in effect by the start of 2025. Turning to Pennsylvania, on July 16, PECO filed its rebuttal testimony with the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission in support of both its electric and gas distribution rate cases ahead of the hearings in early August. The cases are following the expected schedule with orders anticipated from the PAPUC before the end of 2024. Moving on to Pepco Holdings on July 30 to DC Public Service Commission held legislative style of hearing to re-hear oral arguments from key stakeholders and Pepco DC on its pending multiyear re-plan filing. We are committed to working with DC towards their goals to meet their energy transformation aspirations, having at the commission’s direction provided an extensive lessons learned from the first MYP and supplemental testimony detailing each of the benefits as well as enhancements and modifications to improve the MYP framework. Based on the latest procedural schedule, which concludes with the post-hearing brief in late August, we anticipate a final order in the fourth quarter of this year. I'll close by providing an update on the Pepco Maryland final order we received on June 10, which adopted a one-year plan with a total revenue increase of $44.6 million and a 9.5% ROE. We appreciate the ability to file for new rates effective at the end of the one-year plan and the ability to reconcile eligible costs in excess of those approved. And while we were disappointed not to receive rates over the full period requested, we remain committed to engaging with the Maryland Public Service Commission on its lessons learned process, which we anticipate will commence next year. As Calvin noted, we believe strongly in the merits of the multiyear plan framework, and we embrace the opportunity to discuss ours and other stakeholders' learnings after 3.5 years operating under that construct, where we've consistently delivered above average reliability under below average rate. In the meantime, Pepco is requesting that the commission rehear and reconsider certain aspects of their decision, including some of that Fed proposed for removal from the plant. As always, we advocate for transparency, accountability and alignment in the rate making constructs in our jurisdictions and are prepared to work with each to ensure just and equitable energy transformation for all. More details on the rate cases can be found on Slides 20 to 30 of the appendix. On Slide 8, we highlight two projects that showcase the power of our footprint and platform to attract and meet a variety of low growth opportunities. This growth is driven by continued momentum around AI-driven data center demand, onshoring of energy intensity industries and overarching economic development, electrification and decarbonization trends. In June, ComEd joined Compass Datacenters to launch one of the largest ever Illinois data center projects, bringing over 1,000 construction jobs to the nearly 200-acre former Sears headquarters campus. The project helps ComEd further advance economic development in the area and is a great illustration of why Northern Illinois ranks within the top five in the nation for data centers and is a top attraction for other high-density load customers. With ComEd having 25 years of experience working with data center customers and recognized for its best nation reliability last year, companies in energy-intensive industries are drawn to the region due to strong infrastructure, ideal climate conditions, access to talent and affordable rates for all customers, supported by our ability to deploy investment in an efficient manner. This growth in high-density load, not just in data centers, but also in solar panel production, EV battery manufacturing, hydrogen production, quantum computing and other industries is one of several drivers for why our transmission spend increased by 45% in our four-year plan as discussed in the Q4 call and shown again on Slide 13 of the appendix. It also drove a significant update in new business in our refiled grid plan, with final spend eligible for full reconciliation under the multiyear plan framework. Supporting this development ensures the economic vibrancy of our communities. As last year alone, ComEd was part of securing 15 new commercial projects that are set to add over 4,000 jobs and more than $8.6 billion of local investments. Shifting the focus to Maryland, BGE is playing a crucial role in transforming the Baltimore Peninsula into the city's newest and largest mixed-use community. The area which will benefit from multiple new or rebuilt substations will help to release capacity constraints and provide grid resilience to both new and existing customers. Accommodating 100 megawatts of load and supporting the connection of distributed solar and EV charging stations. The 235-acre project will result in new and redeveloped mixed-use and residential buildings and host the new Under Armour global headquarters, playing a central role in the revitalization of South Baltimore. As the largest transmission and distribution utility in the country by customer account, we are an integral partner to areas like Baltimore City for revitalization and economic development, addressing aging infrastructure challenges, the need for new development and electrification and the capacity constraints from increased load. At these two projects highlights, we are uniquely positioned to support our jurisdictions to meet load growth demands in an equitable manner, no matter where the load is located. We operate in six utilities across seven jurisdictions, including FERC, are a leader and operator in the sector and provide a world-class customer experience with bills and rates below national averages. Beyond our size, scale and operational excellence, we have one Exelon platform to unify our utilities that allows us to support customers at a national level, identifying attractive locations to support incremental load in states of progressive clean energy policies. The momentum around new business in our jurisdictions continues to be very strong, a testament to the power of Exelon's platform. I will conclude with a review of our balance sheet activity on Slide 9. As a reminder, we continue to project to have approximately 100 basis points of cushion on average for our consolidated corporate credit metrics above the downgrade thresholds of 12% specified by S&P and Moody's, demonstrating our commitment to maintaining a strong balance sheet. And while we await specific guidance on implementation of the corporate alternative minimum tax, I'll remind you that our plan incorporates the assumption that the regulations will not allow for repairs. If implemented in a way that mitigates the cash impact, we'd expect an increase of approximately 50 basis points to our consolidated credit metrics on average over the plan, likely putting us in the higher end of our targeted 100 to 200 basis points of cushion. From a financing perspective, we successfully raised $1.6 billion for ComEd and BGE in the second quarter, now having completed 90% of our planned long-term debt financing needs for the year. The activity to-date, along with our pre-issuance hedging program, positions us well for the balance of the year and beyond. We continue to see strong investor demand for our debt relative to the sector, which is proof of the strength of our balance sheet and our value proposition as the premier T&D utility with low-risk attributes. There has been no change in our guidance to issue $1.6 billion of equity from 2024 to 2027 to fund our estimated $34.5 billion capital plan in a balanced manner. We continue to expect to issue approximately $150 million this year, and the balance rapidly over 2025 to 2027, approximating $475 million annually. We will update you as we make progress on that plan. Thank you. I’ll now turn the call back to Calvin for his closing remarks.
Calvin Butler:
Thank you, Jeanne. I’ll conclude by bringing it back to our priorities this year listed on Slide 10. As always, safely achieving industry-leading operational excellence is our first priority. Keeping customers online, no matter the weather is increasingly important. We also remain highly focused on being responsive to our customers’ increasing engagement with the grid, whether it’s accommodating new solar performing efficiency audits are supporting their transition to electric vehicles, reaching fair and balanced rate case outcomes that allow us to invest with the benefit of our customers is another critical focus. As you heard from Jeanne, we have a number of proceedings we expect to conclude in the second half of the year, and we’re optimistic about the clarity that will bring for the next several years of our plan. Building a reliable and modern grid requires reliable and modern rate making, and we’ll continue to work with stakeholders to ensure that we are all aligned as we work to meet each state energy goals. Next, we are focused on executing on the financial guidance we laid out, including investing $7.4 billion of capital with a balanced funding strategy and earning a consolidated 9% to 10% return on equity allowing us to deliver in our earnings guidance range of $2.40 to $2.50 per share. And as always, we’re focused on ensuring all customers are benefiting from the generational energy transformation that’s just getting underway. In late June, many of you saw that we joined a FERC proceeding to raise concerns about the way co-located customers share some of the cost of the grid that they can rely on. Exelon and AEP may have been the first to share those concerns, but many others have now echoed similar perspectives. There’s no question that co-location offers a unique opportunity for our jurisdictions to attract business in an exciting emerging industry, and we welcome supporting our customers in this work. Serving more customers than any other utility in some of the largest, most critical cities in the country, we are a leader in investing in the energy transformation and supporting economic development. As Jeanne shared, there is no shortage of work that the energy transformation requires of the grid, regardless of where the load shows up of what sort of generation serves it. In fact, just a week ago, PsiQuantum announced a partnership with the State of Illinois, the County and the City of Chicago to be the anchor tenant in the massive quantum computing development, the first of its kind in the nation, housing a utility-scale quantum computer in an operation center, the size of five football fields. So we will lead in investments, but we will also lead in affordability, with rates and bills that are currently below national averages, and we’re committed to continue to do so to ensure we can maintain the service our customers expect while making the necessary progress in the energy transformation. Accordingly, you can expect us to advocate for policies that continue to support investment in a grid that we all rely on and that ensure these investments can be made as affordably and equitably as possible. We will continue to monitor the FERC ISA proceeding in which action by the commission is expected by August 3 and stand ready to help advance solutions to the benefit of all customers. Gigi, we are now ready for any questions from the audience.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Shar Pourreza from Guggenheim Partners.
Calvin Butler:
Good morning, Shar.
Shar Pourreza:
Good morning, Calvin. Hey, Jeanne. Good morning, Jeanne. So Calvin, just coming off sort of this blowout PJM capacity print, we’ve heard some of your peers yesterday kind of highlighting that they’re talking to their state policymakers on solving this kind of resource adequacy issue. I guess, what conversations are you having either in Illinois, Maryland or Pennsylvania on the backdrop at this point? And do you think we can see merchant new entry all states have to step in? Thanks.
Calvin Butler:
Thank you, Shar. And as you know, we’ve had this discussion in previous settings around resource adequacy, but let me assure you that we, PJM and a number of other stakeholders have been signaling concerns about resource adequacy for some time. Policy has continued to drive a turnover in the generation stack as you know with base load replaced by renewables. And in the past, it has brought huge advances in the power requirements with AI-driven data centers. Onshore of intensive manufacturing has further contributed to the pressures. But this, of course, poses real challenges around providing reliable, resilient and affordable power. It goes to my comments that I made is that we have to ensure that the new rate making – this rate-making systems align with the new constraints being put on the energy that’s being provided for all customers. The price signals that we saw this we clearly indicate a need for infrastructure investments in our footprint, particularly in BGE, both generation and transmission. Obviously, we’re already doing that today, including the work we’re doing on brand insurance retirement meant to address exactly the types of price pressures that this auction showed. We’re already engaged regularly in meetings and you should be assured that we’re not going to step away from this. And it’s an industry-wide issue because at the end of the day, what they’re going to look to utilities is for reliable – reliability and a resilient grid. All the other stuff is fine, but if those lights don’t come on, that’s when they’re going to turn to us, and we’re focused on that each and every day. I’ll now turn it to Jeanne to just see if you have any further.
Jeanne Jones:
Yes. No, I think I’d just reiterate, right, it obviously signals to your point, Shar the need for more generation. We’ll see what happens on the merchant side, but there’s also the need for more transmission. Calvin talked about the work we’re doing on the brand insurers. We’re going to continue to lean in on that, we think there are some cost-effective solutions there. But there’s also an expansion of kind of what we do today in terms of things to help our customers manage their affordability. So for example, energy efficiency. We’ve been doing energy efficiency in ComEd in 2008, and we hit a milestone this year where we marked $9 billion in customer savings, since 2008. That's remarkable, right? That work needs to continue to expand and get smarter and better as more demand comes on the grid, and we're leaning into that. We also hit a milestone of hitting a 1 gigawatt of distributed generation under our rebate program in Illinois this year. So we're going to continue, as you mentioned, having those discussions with our policy makers, what else can we do there, good for customers, good for investment, brings down and addresses the competing demand because we want to bring that demand, right? We want that demand to come. We just need to manage the other side of it, which we're excited to do, and we've done before, and we'll keep doing. And then on top of that, we're going to continue to focus on what we can control, and that includes our O&M, continuing to manage that historically been at that 2%, projecting to be at that 2% when – our customers are facing power price increases went well above that and then just normal inflation. So we're doing a good job there. We'll continue to lean in there. But I think, look, it's meaningful and I think it opens up opportunities to provide solutions, and we look forward to doing that.
Calvin Butler:
And Shar, if I can add on to what Jeanne just adding. The question in Jeanne's comments recognize that none of this operates in a silo. It's all connected. So when you see once a lever being pulled, you can't ignore the other pieces and which is why the ratemaking process is so critical and the transparency and the discussions have to continue and be ongoing throughout.
Shar Pourreza:
Got it. And then I think some of us have covered the space long enough to kind of remember LCAP, MCAP, 11 years ago, 12 years ago. And that obviously was struck down by the courts. Are you looking at a state mechanism to potentially own like peaking assets in rates? Is that what you're referring to?
Calvin Butler:
I would tell you that we're working with our commissions on all type of scenarios that we shouldn't take anything off the table because we need to address this issue and ensure affordability and equity is at the forefront of all discussions.
Shar Pourreza:
Okay. Perfect. And then just on the Susquehanna protest, just lastly here. It's obviously a focus, FERC is slated to act shortly. I guess, assuming the amendment is not set for paper hearing. How do you want FERC to resolve kind of the broader issue, kick it back to the RTO, start an NOI for an eventual [indiscernible] just any thoughts there? Appreciate it.
Calvin Butler:
Yes. Let me just tell you and thank you for the question. I know this issue has gotten a lot of attention and for some reasons rightly, so we're on the cusp of major new source of load, and it's a critical emerging industry that holds a lot of promise for us in the U.S. economy. But let me add a bit of additional color on my prepared remarks, though I'm mindful that we do have an open proceeding and with FERC, and we should learn more by the end of this week, as you know. Our protest to the Talent ISA because – it's not because we're against co-location. We stated very clearly in the initial protest that we are not. We do believe that co-location offer some benefits and allows our jurisdictions to compete successfully for this business. And as I talked about, we have clearly proven that we're an attractive partner for data centers. As evidenced by Chicago being the top five market in this area for economic development. As evidence that our participation in the accept Window 3at $850 million were received because of data center growth in Northern Virginia. For us, Shar, this is about rate design. Users of the grid should pay their fair share. And while there may be unique opportunities to leverage land and equipment at generation plants to get data centers online quickly, they are still connected to the grid and are benefiting from a host of services that the grid provides to serve all of the load connected to it. You should expect us to continue to remain focused on economic development and yes, affordability. We have to do that on behalf of our customers, and that's what you should expect from a world-class utility. That we can do both and really drive growth as we're doing across our jurisdictions, but not forego that for one customer over the other. That's why we're putting this in. Policy should not be determined in one-off basis, and we will continue to see what FERC says and then determine next steps.
Shar Pourreza:
Got it. All right, perfect. Thank you guys. Much appreciate it. Talk to you soon.
Calvin Butler:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of David Arcaro from Morgan Stanley.
Calvin Butler:
Good morning, David.
David Arcaro:
Hey, good morning. Hey, thanks for taking my questions. Wondering if you could give a broad perspective on what you're seeing in terms of state support for attracting data centers. It sounds like you had some encouraging things to say. Just are you seeing any evidence of pushback in any areas or the opposite? Are there incremental signs that some of the key states, I'm thinking Illinois, Pennsylvania continue to be supportive of bringing that industry to the state.
Calvin Butler:
Yes, David, this is Calvin. What I'll do – direct to your question, we're seeing a lot of momentum. And matter of fact, in our states, they have passed legislation to provide tax benefits to attract data centers. And Mike Innocenzo, our COO, works across all of our jurisdictions with each of the CEOs to ensure from an operation standpoint, we're set up to meet the demand have expectations of those customers. Mike, do you have anything you'd like to add?
Mike Innocenzo:
Yes. I think we've seen no shift. I think our states and across all of our jurisdictions continue to see the opportunities created by data centers. for jobs, economic development and continue to be very supportive, but also continue to be very engaged in the process to make sure that it's done in a thoughtful way where it's fair and equitable cross.
David Arcaro:
Okay. Excellent. I appreciate that color. And then in terms of the – maybe your specific kind of pipeline of data center projects, could you give additional color on what you've been seeing in terms of that momentum? Has it been largely focused in your ComEd service territory, what are you seeing in other states at the moment?
Calvin Butler:
Not to tell you what I have our CEO, and what I'm going to do is ask because I think we see the most activity right now, as you alluded to, it's happening in Illinois. I'm going to ask Gil Quiniones, he's ComEd President and CEO, to provide more color. And then for Carim, and/or David Velazquez, Tyler Anthony, if you guys have anything to add, please don't hesitate. Gil?
Gil Quiniones:
Thank you, Calvin. It's been a robust market for data centers here in Illinois. We have over 5 gigawatts in what we call engineering phase where data centers have paid us to start engineering their projects. Some of them actually have made deposits so that we can order large equipment like transformers and breakers. And then behind that, we have another 13 gigawatts in what we call prospects. So they're not yet in engineering. But they are knocking on our doors, making inquiries very interested in coming to our jurisdiction. And we're one of the states where there is a specific tax extensive passed in 2019 to support the development and location of data centers in our state.
Calvin Butler:
Any other CEOs have anything you'd like to add?
Unidentified Company Representative:
And Maryland, Calvin, I'll just add. We remain committed to supporting data centers as they come. To date, we have seen a number of data centers that are actually up and operational, not the hyperscale that many are talking about today, but we still remain committed to helping drive that if the data centers to come to Maryland.
Calvin Butler:
Yes.
Tyler Anthony:
Yes. Tyler Anthony for Pepco Holdings to three utilities. I would say the same, whether it's New [ph] Jersey, Delaware, or the District of Columbia and our portion of Maryland with Carim, interest level has been significant with all the major players doing different assessments of different sites and criteria, Calvin.
Dave Velazquez:
And Dave Velazquez for PECO in Pennsylvania, is beginning to see increased interest whether there are a couple of hundred to several hundred megawatts and a number of those are in engineering studies already and probably the next few months have had a few more entering engineering studies as well.
Calvin Butler:
So David, what you hear from the team is that we're actively engaged in that process. And to date, we continue to ensure that from an operational and reliability standpoint, we're ready to meet the expectations of those large customers.
David Arcaro:
Okay, great. Thanks for the input across the board. Very helpful.
Calvin Butler:
You’re welcome.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Steve Fleishman from Wolfe.
Calvin Butler:
Good morning, Steve
Steve Fleishman:
Hey good morning, thanks. So just on – I guess, first on Illinois. The – you mentioned these agreements with some parties in the grid plan. Could you talk to kind of what parts of the grid plan they've been – they've kind of agreed to. And also just I guess the difference between – what we've seen is the commission kind of ignore staff and ALJs and other things, but does it make a difference if there's actually like settlements as opposed to just views – yes. Thanks.
Calvin Butler:
No, Steve, thank you for the question. And as you and I spoke about it, and we've shared very publicly when we got that order in December, it's important to level set. At that point in December, we had not had a chance to engage with these new commissioners about whether expectations were. And as you laid out, we have been actively engaged with staff and others and stakeholders up to that point. And we thought we had at that about 85% to 90% agreement on what we were going to do. And then the commission came in and said, it's not what we were looking for. So since that time, the engagement with the commission, we took their feedback and went directly to those stakeholders and said, "Hey, if this is what the commission is wanting, how can we develop a plan to achieve that with the grid plan that will be recognized and also meet the expectations of view as a stakeholder." So the difference here is that it's with commission input with staff working in alignment with the commission and these stakeholders. Now to your point, the commission will have the final say but these agreements are key because it's done in alignment with what they told us that they want. And it's just another marker along the way to show that we're making progress. So it's much different now when you present something to the commission because they've already given input. Gil, anything you'd like to add there?
Gil Quiniones:
No, I think that – you've said it correctly that these agreements signify progress towards the specific items that the commissioners cited in their final order. So there are two areas. One area is compliance and policy issues, and these agreements basically codify alignment in those policy and compliance issues. Now the rate case really is more on investments and cost benefit, and we're narrowing our differences in that area, too, leading up to the evidentiary hearing, as Jeanne mentioned, which will be on August 14 to August 16.
Calvin Butler:
And Steve, I'll end with this, is that we much have – much rather have an agreement than not agreement with them. as we proceed and go forward. So to me, that's a significant step in the process.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. Just one clarification. So I think there's – I don't know there's like 11 metrics that need to be met. So could you just maybe tie in the answer of what's agreed upon to those metrics? Like there’s an agreement on the 11 metrics? Or – is it kind of more of a broad – yes.
Jeanne Jones:
Yes, you're talking about the commission's point at the point of compliance, Steve?
Steve Fleishman:
Yes.
Calvin Butler:
Yes. So we actually created a very specific chapter in our refile grid plan to make sure that each of those areas where they cited a gap or deficiency for us to explain how we're meeting each of one of those that they've cited in the final order. On top of that, we've also engaged each of the of staff and stakeholders to make sure that what they're looking for when it comes to compliance and policy requirements are also achieved. So we – in a way, if you read our refiled grid plan. We actually previewed the chapters with all of the stakeholders before we file it, but we rearranged it in a way so that it's easier and clearer for the commissioners to see how we address those 11 gaps or deficiencies that they have identified.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. And I guess one other question related to the – I guess, co-location issue. Some of the other distribution utilities, including PPL itself obviously support the filing as it is. And PPL, I guess, found it in the interest of their customers, the update. So I guess I would be interested in did you pursue kind of trying to resolve this issue directly before you made this filing, to see if there was a win-win. Yes.
Calvin Butler:
Yes. So for us, Steve, when we found out about the issue out in Pennsylvania. It was a matter of public policy. We didn't have anything in front of us in terms of do you have an opportunity to enter into a higher say or so forth. What our issue came down to public policy, and that's why we intervened to understand what was going on and to give FERC an opportunity to opine. So to your point, we didn't have a specific Exelon utility contract for us to come to an agreement on. Once we've made – once we did our filing, that's when we found out other things were happening within hard jurisdictions that were taking place. And we are looking to have those discussions. And like I said, we will work with anyone to get these things done. And my piece on this is that if we can understand and fully grasp what the costs are, and the benefits and how they're going to be allocated. We will have those discussions with anyone at any time. So for us, on the PPL was about public policy and what's taking place. When you read PPL’s opinion are intervening back into the process. What they said was that this wasn't the form for Exelon, AEP discussion, although they recognize significant issues need to be addressed. And someone needs to address them. Colette, do you have anything you'd like to add there?
Colette Honorable:
Thank you. Colette Honorable, I'm EVP of Public Policy and Chief External Affairs Officer. Steve, I appreciate the question. I will partly add to Calvin's comments. We are very open to working with anyone on these ratemaking issues. And this is what we are speaking about. We appreciate that PPL has a different perspective here. The reason we got involved was because of the broader policy implications. And we need to prefer to provide that guidance through policy. That will help all of us. And most importantly, it will help us understand the impacts of these sorts of transactions on all PJM customers. And so we look forward to the dialogue and discussion will continue to remain engage at FERC with all stakeholders and most of all, our customers because as it has been demonstrated here this morning, we will continue to provide strong solutions for our large load customers, but that work has to be done in consideration of the cost impact, the affordability impacts for all customers and then ultimately, reliability.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. Thank you.
Calvin Butler:
Thank you, Steve.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Paul A. Zimbardo from Jefferies.
Calvin Butler:
Good morning, Paul.
Jeanne Jones:
Hey, Paul.
Paul A. Zimbardo:
Hi. Good morning, team. And thank you for focusing so much on affordability. I want to continue that a little bit. Just after the PJM auction, if you have a rough view on what the customer bill impacts could be across the footprint, like BGE, in particular. And if you're going to kind of use this to advocate for acceleration of transmission procurement in the region?
Jeanne Jones:
Hey, Paul. It's Jeanne. We are still buttoning up [ph] of all the calculations, but you can think of it in some of our jurisdictions, including BGE, it's going to be double-digit increases year-over-year. It depends on our jurisdiction in terms of the current capacity constraints in terms of other contracts that are based, but that's how we're thinking about it. It's meaningful and probably double digits in BGE in some of our other jurisdictions. But you're absolutely right. We are going to – this just – we've already been leaning in to the affordability discussion, and I think this just accelerates the solutioning for that, which is that we need to get to a solution. Whether it's more generation, whether it's more transmission, which we see I'm ready to do and are already proactively doing that. And then I mentioned an expansion of the current programs that we have today that help our customers through our investments and connecting them to different resources in BGE space to help them manage their bills. So we look forward to that. And I think just reiterating right, what Calvin said, policy is important. This energy transformation we have always said from the beginning is going to be expensive. And the ones that do it affordably, we'll do it sustainably. And that's why we're focused on making sure that every dollar goes as far as they can.
Paul A. Zimbardo:
Okay. Great. And I know everyone's focused on for [indiscernible]. I was hoping the related but different topic in Maryland, like Senate Bill 1, the co-location study. Just what are your legislative priorities there? And if you could give any additional context. I know there's been some strong comments filed by parties? Thanks.
Calvin Butler:
Yes. Hey, this is Calvin. I would say on the Senate Bill 1, it's all about we will lean into the affordability discussion and what takes place and the impact on all the customers. So again, we think the process in which the general assembly is laid out in working with and saying we're going to have a very public process and hearing, to have all stakeholders engaged in it, is what we want. We will adhere to what the regulatory body or the general assembly lays out. We just want all customers to have a voice in that process because otherwise we as the utility will be the ones looking back and saying, where were you at in that discussion and representing us. And that's important because if you do this, Paul, and you know this, if you do this in a vacuum, then you have to react to the things that have happened already. And it's very difficult to it’s actually good policy when you're trying to recover from something that's already occurred. And that is what I think the working group in SB1 will adhere to, and we will be involved in that process with everyone else.
Paul A. Zimbardo:
Great. No, thank you very much and thank you for keeping us all on the edge of our seats in the Dog Days of the summer.
Calvin Butler:
You’re welcome. That’s right.
Jeanne Jones:
Welcome back, Paul.
Paul A. Zimbardo:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Anthony Crowdell from Mizuho.
Calvin Butler:
Good morning, Anthony.
Anthony Crowdell:
Hey, good morning, team. Just a couple quick ones, I guess. If I could follow up on Steve's question on the FERC, the ISA proceeding, and just one is, do you have any idea if the commission wanted to hold hearings, the timing that would occur before a decision?
Colette Honorable:
Hi, Anthony, it's Colette Honorable again, FERC has a number of options in terms of how to address the issues raised, quite frankly, by a number of stakeholders in that docket. As you've mentioned, one could be to set this matter for hearing should it find that there are outstanding issues of fact or law that should be resolved before ruling. Should it go to hearing. It could take a year and so that would allow for an administrative lodged to hear the various perspectives of the parties that are allowed to intervene and to consider them and make a ruling.
Anthony Crowdell:
Got it. And then the filing was made in conjunction with AEP. I'm curious on how do you, or how just how did they get, or how did they sign on? Did you solicit other utilities? And some decide, AEP decided to sign on and others did not. Or I'm just curious, I understand that this is not about co-location, it's about rate design. It was actually struck me that more utilities than sign on. And I guess that's the root of my question.
Colette Honorable:
Yes. I think at the end of the day, there's a timeline by which you can respond. Right. And so we responded quickly because, as we said, we're going to be a leader in investment. We're going to be a leader in affordability. And there's key questions here. Look, this demand is coming either way, right whether it's co-located or not, that's going to require investment. And our focus is making sure the investment gets done for the needs of our customers and that everyone has a fair and equitable allocation of the cost of using the grid. And I think that's the bottom line.
Anthony Crowdell:
Great. And switching gears, my last question refers to Slide 8, and you talk about all the opportunity in Illinois. I guess, given the low ROE that you received from the last rate case, would most of your investment or all your investment be focused on transmission, like, I guess, is there reluctance to maybe do distribution investment Illinois, given the lower returns that they're awarding?
Colette Honorable:
Yes, some of its Ds and some of its Ts [ph]. So there's a mix there and the more high-density months. We're seeing more on the T side. And you saw that in our update on the Q4 call. We added a lot of transmission to accommodate that high-density load as it relates to the distribution. We have an obligation to serve those new customers. And so while it is a low ROE, we've got to manage that, get that work done. And at the end of the day, that demand coming in. Right. Helps from an affordability and spreading the cost of the grid. So, the only other thing I'll mention is new business on the multiyear plan is outside of the cost, is the $1.05 [ph] cap on the distribution reconciliation. So again, we need to get that work done and hook up those customers. It's for the benefit of all of us, but it is a mix of D&T and a lot more. We see more T coming.
Anthony Crowdell:
Great. Thanks for taking my questions.
Calvin Butler:
Thank you, Anthony.
Jeanne Jones:
Thank you, Anthony.
Operator:
Thank you. At this time, I would now like to turn the conference back over to Calvin Butler for closing remarks.
Calvin Butler:
Thank you, Gigi. And as always, thank you guys for your interest and participation in our earnings call. As always, we remain open to answer any questions and just get feedback with you throughout the day or follow-up to this. So I just wanted to say how much appreciation from the team at Exelon. We appreciate your interest in the company and just engaging with us. So with that, Gigi, this concludes the call.
Operator:
Thanks to all our participants for joining us today. This concludes our presentation. You may now disconnect. Have a good day
Operator:
Hello, and welcome to Exelon's First Quarter Earnings Call. My name is Gigi, and I'll be your event specialist today. [Operator Instructions] Please note that today's webcast is being recorded. [Operator Instructions].
It is now my pleasure to turn today's program over to Andrew Plenge, Vice President of Investor Relations. The floor is yours.
Andrew Plenge:
Thank you, Gigi, and good morning, everyone. We're pleased to have you with us for our 2024 first quarter earnings call. Leading the call today are Calvin Butler, Exelon's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Jeanne Jones, Exelon's Chief Financial Officer. Other members of Exelon senior management team are also with us today and they will be available to answer your questions following our prepared remarks.
Today's presentation, along with our earnings release and other financial information can be found in the Investor Relations section of Exelon's website. We'd also like to remind you that today's presentation and the associated earnings release materials contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. You can find the cautionary statements on these risks on Slide 2 of today's presentation or in our SEC filings. In addition, today's presentation includes references to adjusted operating earnings and other non-GAAP measures. Reconciliations between these measures and the nearest equivalent GAAP measures can be found in the appendix of our presentation and in our earnings release. It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Calvin Butler, Exelon's President and CEO.
Calvin Butler:
Thank you, Andrew, and happy birthday. Good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us for our first quarter earnings call. We continue our focus on strong execution. We have started the year with solid operational performance and are on track to meet our financial expectations, and we are making good progress on the regulatory front having concluded ComEd's rehearing process almost 2 months ahead of schedule.
But before I get into the details of today's call, I want to start by acknowledging all of the thoughtful outreach we received on the passing of my predecessor, Chris Crane. Exelon and really the energy industry wouldn't be what it is today without his leadership. All 20,000 of our employees are committed to furthering the legacy of the platform he established and the culture of operational excellence he promoted permeates all aspects of the performance you see today. Beginning with our key messages on Slide 4. We earned $0.66 per share on a GAAP basis and $0.68 per share on a non-GAAP basis. We again faced well-below-normal weather across our jurisdictions, along with significant storm activity, but having approximately 3/4 of our revenues decoupled from load, balanced cost recovery mechanisms and strong operating earnings guidance of $2.40 to $2.50 per share. We are on track to deliver that. We also continue to perform in the top quartile operationally across all of our operating company utilities. On the regulatory front, we have continued to make good progress. As laid out in our fourth quarter call, a key goal this year is to improve our regulatory outlook in Illinois. We took a large step forward on March 13 when we filed our updated grid plan with the Illinois Commerce Commission. Upon hearing from the Commission in December, the ComEd team got to work the day after the order and worked tirelessly with key stakeholders over the next 90 days to create an updated grid plan that addressed the Commission's feedback. I am so proud of the ComEd team for their efforts to refile an updated grid plan that is thoroughly responsive to the ICC's direction, and we look forward to a final order, which the Commission has stated should be received by the end of the year for rates effective at the beginning of next year. And in the meantime, we are pleased that the commission approved an updated revenue requirement for ComEd in its rehearing almost 2 months ahead of the statutory deadline, which recognizes the investments made last year and the prudent expectations for continued investment in new business in Illinois. We also filed electric and gas rate cases at PECO in late March. These rate cases will support PECO's expanded investment in infrastructure, and they will enhance programs and services for customers, including assistance for low-income customers and support for customers embracing cleaner energy options. And lastly, the Delaware Public Service Commission approved a settlement in Delmarva Power & Light's electric distribution rate case, supporting continued investment in the reliability and resiliency of its grid. Jeanne will review more details around our regulatory activity shortly. Finally, we continue to reaffirm all of our long-term guidance, including an expected 5% to 7% annualized operating earnings growth going forward. This will be driven by the significant investment needed to support our jurisdiction's energy goals, which we are committed to doing as affordably and equitably as possible. Turning to Slide 5. Our streak of operational excellence continues despite the significant storm activity we saw across our territories in the first quarter. In both outage frequency and outage duration, ComEd and Pepco Holdings achieved top decile performance, while BGE and PECO achieved top quartile performance. This also includes extremely high performance on the gas side of the business, where gas odor response rates were perfect at both BGE and PECO. We also maintained strong performance in our customer satisfaction scores at ComEd and PECO with ComEd achieving top decile. In light of its lower performance at the start of the year, BGE has created several working groups to identify and address customer pain points highlighted in customer surveys and direct interactions with 10 initiatives underway that include enhanced community outreach for energy efficiency programs, especially targeted towards limited and moderate-income customers and a continuous improvement plan for new business. Results are trending favorably in the second quarter. Lastly, I'll spend some time speaking about our safety culture and performance. We achieved top decile performance on our metric through the first quarter at BGE and Pepco Holdings, while ComEd and PECO sit in the second quartile. As many are familiar, the measure we have historically used for safety has been OSHA recordables in line with the industry standard. This metric has been in place for decades, resulting from legislation passed over 50 years ago. While OSHA recordable served as a useful starting point to drive safe behaviors and accountability, it has limitations in its ability to focus efforts on the most critical areas. While the total injury rate for the industry has declined, the most severe outcomes, fatalities have not. The power sector occupies a unique space in today's economy and the nature of our work entails significant physical risk, more than most other business sectors. In our efforts to advance our capabilities as a learning organization we have worked with the industry to adopt a more targeted and comprehensive framework to monitor high safety risk situations to harness key learnings and further engage our employees. Such a framework is better suited for our industry to drive safety performance to the next level. And this approach not only better ensures our efforts are focused on the highest potential risk but also helps measure the success of those efforts, evaluating the presence of safeguards as opposed to the absence of injuries. In alignment with this strategy to focus on the highest risk safety situations, we are now reporting on our safety performance through the serious injury incident rate or SIIR. Given this safety metric now measures serious injuries, we're more focused than ever on doing as much as we can to operate at industry-leading levels and any incidents are unacceptable. Based on performance to date, ComEd is refreshing all employees on serious injury prevention tools, including recognition of their empowerment to stop work if a situation is deemed unsafe. And PECO is focused on strategies to improve safety performance around motor vehicles, including a copilot program to identify and communicate passenger responsibilities for safe driving. I am very proud of our operations team for its industry leadership on an issue as paramount as safety, and I look forward to driving continuous improvement in this area. Jeanne, I'll now turn it over to you to cover our financial and regulatory update.
Jeanne Jones:
Thank you, Calvin, and good morning, everyone. Today, I will cover our first quarter financial update and progress on our 2024 rate case schedule, including key developments in Illinois.
Starting on Slide 6, we show our quarter-over-quarter adjusted operating earnings [ log. ] As Calvin mentioned, Exelon earned $0.68 per share in the first quarter of 2024 versus $0.70 in the first quarter of 2023, reflecting lower results of $0.02 per share over the same period. Earnings are lower in the first quarter relative to last year driven primarily by $0.04 of higher interest expense due to the rise in interest rates and higher levels of debt at the holding company and at some of our utilities. $0.03 of higher restoration and damage repair costs associated with the challenging storm season across the Mid-Atlantic and $0.02 of lower return on ComEd's distribution investments, including no return on its pension asset resulting from the December rate order. This was partially offset by $0.07 of higher distribution rates at our other utilities associated with incremental investments net of other expenses. Results of $0.68 per share in the first quarter represents an approximate 28% contribution of the midpoint of our projected 2024 operating earnings guidance range, which is right in line with historical patterns, but slightly behind where we expected to be for Q1. This is a direct result of the continued warmer-than-normal temperatures in our non-decoupled jurisdictions, and the challenging storm activity experienced throughout the first 3 months of 2024. As we look ahead to the next quarter, the relative EPS contribution is expected to be approximately 15% of the midpoint of our projected full year earnings guidance range, which contemplates the update to ComEd's revenue requirement approved by the Illinois Commerce Commission to go into effect in May bills. In combination with Q1 results, this would result in recognizing 43% of projected full year earnings which is slightly behind how we have performed historically, but in line with our latest outlook, given various new rates expected to go into effect towards the second half of the year across several jurisdictions. As we demonstrated in 2023, weather-related volatility is a risk we expect to manage alongside other changes in the plan. The ComEd rehearing provides for incremental revenue relief relative to the final order, which underpinned our base case for the year. As we progress through the year, you can expect us to balance this opportunity with management of our costs and utility work plans, regulatory outcomes and weather over the remaining quarters to deliver against the expectations laid out for the year. We remain on track for full year operating earnings of $2.40 to $2.50 per share in 2024 with the goal of being at midpoint or better of that range. Lastly, we are reaffirming the fully regulated operating EPS compounded annual growth target of 5% to 7% from the 2023 guidance midpoint through 2027 with the expectation to be at the midpoint or better of that growth range. Moving to Slide 7. There are several positive developments to highlight in the ongoing regulatory matters in Illinois. Starting with the most recent on April 18, the ICC issued an order on the rehearing of ComEd's December MYP order that reset rates, which went into effect in May, providing for an increase of $150 million in 2024 relative to the December 2023 order. The order also increased the 2025 to 2027 revenue requirements over the approved revenue requirements in those years. While we are encouraged the revenue requirements on rehearing were largely uncontested and the rehearing process was completed nearly 2 months ahead of schedule. Obtaining approval of the refiled grid plan remains top priority. That leads me to the next key development. After 3 months of robust stakeholder engagement to address feedback from the commission in which ComEd hosted 2 public meetings and a series of 6 workshops on 10 different topics, the revised grid plan was filed with the ICC on March 13.
Based on this engagement, ComEd have made a number of changes to the original grid plan, including the following:
First, we reduced overall investment levels and bill impacts by up to 30% to better ensure affordability for customers. We also included additional affordability analysis anchored around energy burden, which is the total home energy cost as a percentage of household income, and we demonstrated that new rates under the proposed grid plan result in electric bills at levels well less than half the threshold considered to be energy burdened. And third, we outlined in detail how every customer and community benefits from the clean energy transition. Specifically, through focused grid investments in disadvantaged communities, more than 40% of the benefits of grid modernization and clean energy have been demonstrated to support equity investment eligible communities customers.
Lastly, we enhanced our support for the value of grid investments to ComEd customers through a new cost effectiveness framework. ComEd's analysis details the present value benefits of grid plan investments totaling over $7 billion as compared to the present value of the revenue requirements of $4.4 billion. These quantifiable benefits driven largely by reliability and emissions reductions do not capture other qualitative value like cybersecurity protection, safety, customer engagement, low-income customer assistance and health improvements from improved air quality. The refiled grid plan not only satisfies all statutory requirements and supports the achievement of statutory objectives, it also represents a collaboration among ComEd, Commission staff and other stakeholders on implementation of the groundbreaking Climate and Equitable Jobs Act. CEJA has put the state of Illinois on a path to advance ambitious plans to combat climate change, a goal that is equally important to policymakers and utilities alike. In support of these objectives, on March 7, the Commission issued an order that a procedural schedule to be adopted for the grid and rate plan proceeding that will allow the commission to issue a final order in December 2024 and implement rates that will go into effect by the start of 2025. The administrative law judges subsequently adopted a proposed procedural schedule in line with this timing. ComEd also filed its final distribution formula rate reconciliation with the ICC on April 26, seeking a onetime recovery of $627 million in rates effective January 1, 2025. A key driver of the increase includes the impact of U.S. treasury yields that increased in 2023 relative to the prior year. As a reminder, the formula rate construct was historical and that it set rates based on prior year expenditures. As such, in addition to collecting actual costs from 2023, trued up from '21 and '22 costs, the reconciliation reflects higher O&M expenses due in part to the inclusion of beneficial electrification and credit card convenience fees required by CEJA as well as additional investments in infrastructure to support safe, reliable service for customers and growth of new business in the state supported by its economic development policies. Storm recovery was also a material driver of the under-recovery, per statute an order is expected on the reconciliation in December. As I mentioned, obtaining approval of ComEd's refiled grid plan is our priority early approval of the rehearing, coupled with the adoption of a procedural schedule for an order on the refiled grid plan before the end of 2024 are the first steps to getting Illinois back on track to achieve its clean energy goals. Turning to Slide 8. As Calvin mentioned, there have been some important developments on the regulatory front for our East Coast jurisdictions since the beginning of the year. Let me begin with the most recent filing. On March 28, PECO filed both electric and gas distribution rate cases with the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission. In its electric rate case, PECO is requesting a $399 million net revenue increase by 2025 to support significant investments in infrastructure to maintain and improve safety, reliability and customer service for its customers. To reduce the impacts of severe weather, PECO has proposed a storm reserve mechanism designed to defer storm cost variances to the balance sheet to be collected or refunded in the next base rate case. Additionally, PECO is seeking to recover $111 million in its gas distribution rate case to support continued replacement of existing natural gas mains and service lines, with new plastic pipe intended to enhance safety, improve service and reduce methane emissions. As part of the case, PECO has requested a weather normalization adjustment designed to adjust customers' gas bills for actual versus normal weather on each individual customer bill when bills are issued. Both the proposed storm reserve and weather normalization adjustments would reduce the variability of revenues relative to our costs and at the same time, benefit customers by ensuring that they only pay for actual storm costs and by making their gas bills more predictable. Further strengthening the experience for our customers are the planned infrastructure investments to modernize the electric grid, make it stronger, more weather resistant and less vulnerable to storm damage. Despite the impacts of several severe storms in 2023, PECO customers experienced the lowest power outage in company history with 86% of PECO customers experiencing 0 or 1 outage in 2023. PECO's investment plans outlined in the electric and gas rate cases are designed to build upon this strong foundation, delivering enhanced reliability performance to its customers. Orders are expected from the PAPUC for both rate cases before the end of 2024. On April 18, the Delaware Public Service Commission unanimously approved Delmarva Power settlement agreement with modification for its electric distribution rate case. The settlement was for a $42 million gross increase in distribution rates premised on an ROE of 9.6%. The decision improves recovery of investments in infrastructure to mean safety and reliability and improved service for our customers. It also helps better align revenues with costs, specifically high storm expenses through a newly established rider that allows for deferral of storms exceeding $5 million. As permitted by Delaware Law, Delmarva Power implemented full allowable rates on July 15, 2023, subject to refund. I'll close with an update on the progress in Pepco's electric distribution rate cases in Washington, D.C. and Maryland. The procedural schedule and Pepco DC's multiyear rate plan filing has been adjusted to accommodate an intervenor's request for additional time to review the rebuttal testimony from Pepco. Pepco anticipates D.C.'s Commission to issue a subsequent order with an updated hearing and briefing schedule in the coming weeks. A final order is expected by the third quarter. Additionally, in Maryland, evidentiary hearings were conducted, and brief filed in March and April, respectively, as part of Pepco's pending multiyear electric rate case. The hearings allowed Pepco Maryland, the opportunity to demonstrate the benefits afforded by a multiyear rate plan relative to traditional rate making. Multiyear plans in Maryland have enabled investments necessary to improve reliability and customer service, modernize the distribution system and support state environmental goals that have served our customers and community as well. We continue to believe Pepco's proposed investment plans are well suited for Maryland to meet its aggressive clean energy goals in an affordable manner. A final order is expected from the commission by June 10 per statute. More details on the rate cases can be found on Slides 19 through 29 of the appendix. I will conclude with a review of our balance sheet activity on Slide 9. As you heard on our last earnings call, we project to continue to have approximately 100 basis points of cushion on average for our consolidated corporate credit metrics above the threshold specified by the agencies. And while we continue to await specific guidance and implementation of the corporate alternative minimum tax, I'll remind you that our plan continues to incorporate the assumption that the regulations will not allow for repairs. It's implemented in a way that mitigates the cash impact, we'd expect an increase of approximately 50 basis points to our consolidated credit metrics on average over the plan putting us more on the higher end of our targeted 100 to 200 basis points of cushion. From a debt financing perspective, we successfully raised $1.7 billion at corporate and approximately $1 billion for the PHI entities in the first quarter. To date, we have completed 55% of our planned 2024 long-term debt financing needs, including all of our corporate needs, positioning us well for any market volatility in the balance of the year. As a reminder, we continue the pre-issuance hedging program that was initiated in 2022 to manage the ongoing interest rate volatility. In addition, we continuously monitor the capital markets and regularly assess our plans for future issuance timing, sizing, tenor and tranching strategy to ensure we achieve optimal outcomes. The strong investor demand for our debt offerings continues to be a testament to the strength of our balance sheet and to our value proposition as a premier T&D utility with a low-risk platform. To reiterate our equity needs, there has been no change in our guidance to issue $1.6 billion over the 2024 to 2027 period to fund the estimated $34.5 billion capital plan in a balanced manner. Specifically, we expect to issue $150 million of equity at the holding company in 2024 and the balance of approximately $475 million annually over 2025 through 2027. We will continue to update you as we make progress on that plan. Thank you. I'll now turn the call back to Calvin for his closing remarks.
Calvin Butler:
Thank you, Jeanne. I will close on Slide 10 by reminding you of your 2024 -- of our 2024 business priorities and commitments and the unique power of our platform.
As always, we start with operational excellence, providing safe and reliable power to our customers as the demands on the grid continue to increase. We remain committed to achieving regulatory outflows and adequately balanced stakeholder interest, supporting the necessary progress on the energy transformation. This includes completing the ComEd grid plan process in a way that allows sufficient investment in the grid to support Illinois energy goals. We are focused on delivering on all of our financial commitments for the year, investing $7.4 billion of capital expenditures while earning a consolidated ROE of 9% to 10% and delivering operating earnings per share of $2.40 to $2.50 per share. And we expect to achieve this while executing on our financing plan to maintain a strong balance sheet. We continue our strong advocacy for equitable and balanced energy transition, taking advantage of the unprecedented federal support through IIJA for investment across the ecosystem while continuing our industry-leading efforts to strengthen our communities. As you may have seen, we are proud to partner with the Cal Ripken Sr. Foundation to open 81 STEM centers across various cities. We serve, including Atlantic City, Chicago, Philadelphia, Wilmington and Washington, D.C. We opened the very first of those in April in Lansdowne, Maryland, and we are excited give students an opportunity to gain hands-on knowledge, skills and confidence in areas like coding and engineering, which are indispensable in the energy industry. We also continue to focus on maintaining a long-term O&M trajectory that supports customer affordability while relentlessly pursuing opportunities to operate more efficiently as one Exelon. Executing against our established priorities and commitments year in and year out is what you would expect of a premier utility. In many ways, those priorities and commitments aren't new. The foundation of operational excellence and a commitment to values that support the diverse communities we have, the privilege and responsibility to serve was established long ago by Chris. He demanded continuous improvement from the businesses he ran while relentlessly advocating for sensible and long-sighted policies. And he was an equally strong champion of diversity and inclusion, including industry-leading efforts to advance equitable recruitment, retention and promotion of women along with award-winning programs in workforce development and supply diversity. Indeed, he laid the foundation for the STEM Academy initiative that I highlighted moments ago. We will all miss Chris, and we look forward to honoring his legacy by pushing Exelon to lead the energy transformation with the platform and culture that he helped establish. Gigi, that concludes our prepared remarks, and we welcome any questions from the audience.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet from JPMorgan Securities, LLC.
Aidan Kelly:
This is actually Aidan Kelly on for Jeremy. Just looking at Pennsylvania, there appears to be an abundance of natural gas growth potential in the Marcellus and Utica if incremental demand materializes. Do you see this backdrop in ample reserve margin supporting data center development in the state?
Calvin Butler:
The short answer is yes. And I would tell you that we continue to see significant activity around high-density load growth in general. As we discussed in our -- as recently as our Q4 2023 earnings call, we have high probability of load growth, not only in Illinois, but Pennsylvania.
And I have with me Dave Velazquez and both Mike Innocenzo, who can provide you further color. But the short answer is yes, and I'll turn it over to them to see if they want to add anything.
David Velazquez:
This is Dave. Just to add that we have continued to see different businesses, including some interest from data centers in the PECO territory and we have the infrastructure to be able to support that both on the generation side and also have the transmission infrastructure, again, would have to be reinforced in certain places to be able to serve those loads.
Michael Innocenzo:
Yes. And I would add, we've got -- we have a governor that's very aggressive around economic development. We're an energy exporter in Pennsylvania. So the ability to utilize that for all sorts of growth, I would say, in addition to data centers, we're seeing electrification, we're seeing development around the South Philadelphia area. So lots of opportunities for growth and all sorts of electrification.
Calvin Butler:
And the key to your question for me is that the utilities in all of our jurisdictions, we will be a partner in economic development, identifying areas and opportunities to put the assets of our jurisdictions in play. Thank you for the question.
Aidan Kelly:
Yes, that's super helpful. And then maybe just one follow-up, shifting to the PECO rate cases. Could you just talk more about the prospects of receiving approval for both the storm mechanism and weather normalization adjustment. Just curious, like have these been used before? Are they a first-time ask in front of the PUC. And just like any points of contention you would highlight there?
Calvin Butler:
Great question, and Dave is going to take that.
David Velazquez:
Now both those mechanisms have been used or are being used. So if you think of the weather normalization on the gas, 4 of the 6 gas utilities already have a weather normalization adjustment. And 1 of the 2 that doesn't, has applied as well for a weather normalization adjustment.
And then on the storm reserve, 1 of the major electric companies in PA already has a storm reserve account similar to us and another of the major utilities for storms uses kind of a rider, which is kind of like an automatic add to the bill. So both are mechanisms that are known and have been approved in the past in PA.
Operator:
Our last question comes from the line of Carly Davenport from Goldman Sachs.
Carly Davenport:
Just wanted to ask on ComEd. Just as you think about getting the timing to getting clarity around the grid plan refiling? Obviously, the rehearing was resolved sooner than anticipated as you highlighted. Is there any potential for that refiling resolution to also come sooner? Or do you think it's really a December event?
Calvin Butler:
I do, Carly, this is Calvin. I do believe it's a December event. We continue to work the process. And I would tell you, the fact that we did get the other ruling prior to the statutory deadline was very -- was a positive outcome, but we are -- continue to work with all the stakeholders to drive this process to conclusion. And if we get those rates into effect prior to the beginning of -- at the beginning of the next year, that lays the foundation for us to continue to work with the Illinois Commission and the government to achieve the results of the -- one out of the Climate Equitable and Jobs Act, but I do not see it any sooner than that, Gil, you have anything you'd like to add?
Gil Quiniones:
No. I think -- just a couple of important things to note. On its own accord, the ICC voted on an interim order to say that they will decide on this by December. And subsequent to that, the administrative law judge on April 11, set forth the procedural schedule to guide it for a decision in December of this year.
Carly Davenport:
Great. And then I know that you've gotten a lot of the year's financing needs done during the first quarter. But just as you think about the rest of the year there, do you expect there to be any sort of impact relative to your base plan just given the move that we've seen in rates here year-to-date?
Jeanne Jones:
Carly. No, I think getting that corporate financing done was important, and we had also pre-issuance hedge, a significant portion of that as we always do heading into the year. So that's why we give you the sensitivity on an open year, it's about $0.01 absent any hedges. So we've really -- we work hard leading into the year to mitigate it and then getting it done early in the year, leaves -- any amount that isn't hedged sort of takes that risk off the table.
The other thing I'll note is coming out of the separation, we were holding a little bit more short-term debt than we normally do. As part of that financing in the first quarter, we termed out all about $500 million. So that's all we carry in short-term debt, and that's typically what we would normally carry. So also completed that. And then in our operating companies, for the most part, interest expenses are covered, whether immediately through sort of reconciliations or over time as we capture them in new rate cases. So it's really the corporate exposure that we continue to manage.
Operator:
I would now like to turn the conference back over to Exelon's President and CEO, Calvin Butler for closing remarks.
Calvin Butler:
Let me just always say thank you for joining today and for your interest in Exelon. Always appreciated you taking the time and asking questions, and we look forward to connecting with all of you over the next several months. And with that, Gigi, that concludes today's call.
Operator:
Thanks to all our participants for joining us today. This concludes our presentation. You may now disconnect. Have a good day.
Operator:
Hello, and welcome to Exelon's Fourth Quarter Earnings Call. My name is Gigi, and I'll be your event specialist today. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. Please note that today's webcast is being recorded. During the presentation, we'll have a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] It is now my pleasure to turn today's program over to Andrew Plenge, Vice President of Investor Relations. The floor is yours.
Andrew Plenge :
Thank you, Gigi, and good morning, everyone. We're pleased to have you with us for our 2023 fourth quarter earnings call. Leading the call today are Calvin Butler, Exelon's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Jeanne Jones, Exelon's Chief Financial Officer. Other members of Exelon senior management team are also with us today, and they will be available to answer your questions following our prepared remarks. Today's presentation, along with our earnings release and other financial information can be found in the Investor Relations section of Exelon's website. We'd also like to remind you that today's presentation and the associated earnings release materials contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. You can find the cautionary statements on these risks on Slide 2 of today's presentation or in our SEC filings. In addition, today's presentation includes references to adjusted operating earnings and other non-GAAP measures. Reconciliations between these measures and the nearest equivalent GAAP measures can be found in the appendix of our presentation and in our earnings release. It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Calvin Butler, Exelon's President and CEO.
Calvin Butler:
Thank you, Andy, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today. On Slide 4, we have laid out our key messages for today's call. First, we are pleased to share that final results for 2023 exceeded the midpoint of our narrowed guidance, delivering $2.38 per share of operating earnings, or almost 6% growth off of last year's guidance midpoint. This is the second year in our two years as a purely regulated T&D utility that we have delivered results in the top half of guidance. And that is despite historically mild weather in the Mid-Atlantic where PECO experienced its mildest year in the 50 years we have on record. We also executed exactly as expected on our financing plan, including issuing one-third of our original $425 million equity commitment. Operationally, we continue to set the bar for the industry. We closed out another year with leading performance setting records for performance at multiple utilities. As it pertains to our regulatory activity, we completed three rate cases last year and continue to make progress on the three others at Delmarva Power Delaware, Pepco Maryland and Pepco DC. We received the final order in BGE's second multiyear plan filing for rates effective 2024 to 2026. We were encouraged to receive an order that recognized the importance of investment in support of Maryland's energy goals and a thoughtful path towards decarbonization. We also reached a constructive settlement in Atlantic City Electric rate case. The increased revenue requirement will support its smart meter rollout, its EV smart program for easy and cost-efficient charger installation, and other investments to maintain safety and reliability, as well as improved service for our customers in New Jersey. Last, we received an order in ComEd's first multiyear rate plan, and it was a disappointing outcome. First, the order failed to recognize the financial cost of ComEd's investment, despite nation-leading reliability and low customer rates. It adopted a significantly below average ROE, refused to reflect in rates the prudent share of equity and removed any return on our pension asset despite that asset delivering over $1 billion in customer and counting. But more importantly, it rejected our grid plan which was carefully developed over almost two years through dozens of stakeholder workshops and presentations reaching over 1,000 people and bolstered by voluminous support in the rate case process. Support for the investment plan was very strong, up through the administrative law judge's proposed order. It's important to all of us that are working to meet our state's goals and serving our customers that we have a stable and certain regulatory environments, and we'll work with all of our stakeholders to achieve such an environment and ensure that Illinois is a state that investors are comfortable committing to. As such, a key focus of this team for 2024 will be regaining momentum in Illinois and resolving some of this uncertainty. It is in no one's interest, particularly those in the Illinois communities we serve and live in for the state to lose further ground in its opportunity to lead the energy transformation and forgo significant economic opportunity. We will be working diligently with stakeholders to get it back on track. Jeanne will cover more of the detail around Illinois shortly, and additional details on other rate cases can be found in the appendix. Our last key message pertains to our projected outlook. Consistent with past practice, we have rolled forward our disclosures after adding a year to our guidance window with our guidance running from 2024 through 2027. You'll see that we have added $3.2 billion of capital to our four-year outlook, growing from $31.3 billion over the 2023 to 2026 guidance period to $34.5 billion over 2024 to 2027, an increase of over 10%. This reflects a number of updates across the platform to meet customer needs and jurisdictional goals. Including the addition of transmission investments assigned from the brand insurer's retirement and awarded in PJM's 3 RTEP reliability window to resolve reliability issues from data center growth in the region. These additions are partially offset by the reduction of approximately $1.25 billion in ComEd distribution spend. While we are working to finalize the revised grid plan for our March filing, we believe our plan appropriately accounts for the uncertain regulatory outlook while ensuring customers continue to receive safe and adequate service, and we meet the basic requirements laid out under the Climate and Equitable Jobs Act. This increase in capital expenditures result in rate base growth of 7.5% from 2023 to 2027. And as a result of the significant increase in investment, we have included in our four-year projections incremental equity of $1.3 billion, which represents approximately 40% of the net incremental capital and ensures we maintain a strong balance sheet as we lead the energy transformation. In addition, despite below average returns we are receiving at ComEd, we continue to expect to realize a consolidated ROE in the 9% to 10% range. The result of the plan is an annualized operating earnings growth target of 5% to 7% through 2027 from our 2023 guidance midpoint of $2.36 per share. Now lowering our earnings growth outlook is not a change we took lightly, particularly given the amount of investment needed for this multi-decade energy transformation and our unique scale and platform to lead that work. Reducing investment in ComEd as a result of the final quarter lowered our expected rate base growth, but it also provided us an additional opportunity to deploy capital in other parts of the system across our seven jurisdictions to serve our customers, particularly in transmission. I'll note that the financial benefits of these investments do take longer to play out. Given the larger scale and scope of transmission projects, they require more time to generate cash and earnings relative to the distribution investments they are replacing. But we are confident that we can deliver at the midpoint or better of our annualized growth rating -- growth rate change of 5% to 7% over the 2023 to 2027 horizon and beyond, even after accounting for the potential that the uncertain process in Illinois may require significant further adjustments. And once again, Jeanne will speak more to these updates to our long-term outlook shortly. Lastly, for 2024, we are initiating our projected operating earnings guidance at $2.40 to $2.50 per share. This range gives us confidence that we can accommodate a variety of outcomes through the ComEd rehearing and grid plan processes, along with our typical risk and opportunities we see across our platform. We have also announced an annualized dividend of $1.52 per share in 2024, reflecting 5.5% growth off of our $1.44 dividend per share in 2023, in line with our long-term earnings growth and approximately 60% payout ratio. Moving to slide 5. I will review the 2023 commitments and priorities that we initiated on last year's fourth quarter call and recognize the significant progress we made across all of the areas that we prioritize as a pure-play transmission and distribution utility, which is leading the energy transformation. First, it was another tremendous year operationally. You can see this not only in our scorecard, but the industry recognizes it as well. As we mentioned in our last call, ComEd won, PA Consulting's ReliabilityOne Award as the country's most reliable utility. The best ever performance at ComEd and Pepco Holdings speaks to the high quality of our workforce and our efforts to attract, engage and retain talent. We also met all of our financial goals. We invested $7.3 billion of capital to serve our customers. We earned a 9.3% return on equity, well within the targeted range of 9% to 10% that we target earnings on a consolidated basis. And as I mentioned, we delivered earnings in the upper half of our guidance range. We executed as promised on our strategy to maintain a healthy and strong balance sheet. We issued one-third of our existing equity commitment, raised debt at attractive interest rates at both our operating companies and holding company, and we took advantage of a variety of hedging instruments. We were very active and extremely successful in securing grants enabled by the infrastructure, investment and Jobs Act, securing close to $200 million in awards to support grid resiliency and modernization, at BGE, PECO and ComEd that will make our jurisdictions progress on their energy goals more affordable and equitable. And further, to the focus on customer affordability, we again helped secure $550 million of federal, state and local support for low-income customers that need assistance in paying their energy bills. We also made significant progress in our efforts to maximize value for our customers, institutionalizing a permanent team to discover and execute on opportunities to deliver industry-leading operational excellence for our customers at lower cost, which you'll hear more about from Jeanne. Lastly, we executed on a busy regulatory calendar, setting a rate case -- settling a rate case at ACE concluding another successful multiyear plan for BGE's electric and gas customers that aligns on an appropriate investment strategy for the next three years, and making substantial progress in our Delmarva Power electric rate case and Pepco multiyear plans. As we talked about, while we completed our ComEd rate case, it was a disappointing outcome for all parties. But we've already begun to establish and execute on a path forward, and that's become our top priority in 2024. I will now turn to slide 6 to review how we closed out 2023 from an operational perspective. Starting first with reliability. We again kept outage frequency and duration at top quartile levels or above. ComEd and Pepco Holdings operated at best on record levels in both categories. Performance like this is not something that can be turned on and off overnight. First, it takes a talented and trained workforce. As I mentioned earlier, and we thank the teams that show up each and every day no matter the conditions to compete the lights on and the gas flowing as they did during the severe storms and brutal cold snap that struck in January. Across ComEd, PECO and PHI, over 500,000 customers were impacted, and it takes investment. The demands placed on our system by more severe weather by an increasingly distributed and non-dispatchable generation fleet and by an economy that's more and more reliant on electricity, they all require investment. That's why it's so important to us to have stable and certain regulatory environments. It gives us the confidence to execute on forward-looking planning to manage the pace of investment for the energy transformation and ensure the reliability that all customers deserve and rightly expect. On safety, performance will continue to be a critical area of attention for us in 2024. Our OSHA performance was lacking in 2023 and we remain highly focused on understanding and correcting drivers of underperformance at each of our utility operating companies. The biggest drivers across all of our utilities continue to remain in the day-to-day basics like ergonomics and vehicle-related incidents not the high energy events that truly differentiate utility work and demand particular focus. But this substandard performance even in the lower impact areas is not acceptable, and I expect us to do better in 2024. Customer satisfaction almost universally improved in the fourth quarter with ComEd rising into the first quartile. We are pleased that our efforts to ensure our customers see value in the service we provide are paying off, and we look forward to continuing this progress well into 2024. And finally, gas odor response remained at the dollar levels. And we continue to deliver on what we have here, and I'm so proud of the BGE and PECO, Pepco team -- and Delmarva teams. There was a lot for our employees to be proud of in 2023. We know we have what it takes to be a premier utility and we execute it like one. I will now turn it over to Jeanne to speak more about our financial and regulatory update. With that, Jeanne?
Jeanne Jones:
Thank you, Calvin and good morning everyone. Today, I will cover our fourth quarter and full year results, key regulatory developments in Illinois and across the platform, and provide annual updates to our financial disclosures, including 2024 guidance. Starting on Slide 7. As Calvin noted, we delivered strong financial results for the second year in a row despite the historically mild weather impacting our non-decoupled jurisdictions. For the fourth quarter, Exelon earned $0.62 per share on a GAAP basis and $0.60 per share on a non-GAAP basis. For the full year 2023, we earned $2.34 per share on a GAAP basis and $2.38 per share on a non-GAAP basis, results that are at the top end of our narrowed guidance range, and represent almost 6% growth off the midpoint of the 2022 guidance range. Throughout the year, we benefited from a higher earned ROE at ComEd, primarily due to rising treasury rates, impacting ComEd's distribution ROE as well as favorable depreciation of PECO relative to expectations. Additionally, the ruling in December on BGE's reconciliation from its first multiyear plan approved recovery for over 90% of the requested 2021 and 2022 amounts and established a precedent to record a portion related to the 2023 reconciliation, which is expected to be determined in a future proceeding. These benefits, coupled with our ability to manage our plans across the platform, allowed us to mitigate nearly $140 million of weather and storm challenges relative to prior year, along with the labor strike in New Jersey that occurred late in the year, driving contracting costs up year-over-year. In a year in which we faced multiple headwinds, we delivered on our goal to achieve earnings in the top half of our guidance range. Quarter-to-date and year-to-date drivers relative to prior year are detailed in the appendix on Slides 30 and 31. Turning to our outlook for 2024, we are initiating adjusted operating earnings guidance of $2.40 to $2.50 per share, with BGE and PEPCO entering the next cycles of their multiyear plan, 2024 earnings are expected to grow approximately 4% relative to the midpoint of our 2023 original guidance range. Compared to our last update, the reduction in expected year-over-year earnings growth is driven solely by the December 14th rate order issued by the Illinois Commerce Commission and ComEd multiyear rate plan. which we were only able to partially mitigate in 2024 with cost management, redirected investment to serve our customers, and margin we had built up in the plan. Outright rejection of the grid plan, the challenging financial support for our net distribution investment in the December order, and uncertainty around the amount of spend ComEd will be able to recover has caused us to dramatically reduce the originally planned level of distribution investment in Illinois this year. Until there is resolution on the grid plan, our 2024 plan has been risk-adjusted for the overall uncertainty and prudently assumes earnings at ComEd consistent with the December rate order. While the rehearing on the interim revenue requirement is expected to provide additional cost recovery and so grid plan approval, we have not assumed this as our base case. Therefore, despite the uncertainty that remains at ComEd, we expect our 2024 range to cover a range of possible outcomes, from not receiving any rate relief relative to the final order to the prospect that we receive an approval of our revised grid plan. The uncertainty in Illinois will further cause volatile quarterly earnings shaping in 2024, both due to the significant rework of ComEd's operational plan in 2024, as well as due to the fact of the prospects for the rehearing and revised grid plan processes to impact ComEd expected revenue requirements. We currently expect to realize approximately 29% of full year earnings in the first quarter, which accounts for the December rate order ComEd, seasonal weather patterns and the completed rate cases at our other utilities. Moving to Slide 9. I would like to take a moment to step through the regulatory developments in Illinois since receipt of the ITC's final order in mid-December. First, starting with the application for rehearing on December 22, and ComEd acted swiftly to request the commission correct fundamental, legal and evidentiary errors around four primary issues with the final order. Return on equity, capital structure, return on pension assets and the basis of the ordered revenue requirement across all test years that was adopted absent an approved grid plan. At an open meeting on January 10, the ICC granted one portion of ComEd's application. Directing that 150-day rehearing process reconsider the year-over-year revenue requirement increases absent an approved grid plan. While ComEd anticipates that the revenue requirements will be further updated upon approval of our revised grid plan, the rehearing order due on June 10 is expected to reset interim rates for 2024 at the discretion of the commission. Immediately following the open meeting on January 10, ComEd filed with the Third District of Appellate Court, and appeal of the three other elements of the ICC's final order on which rehearing was denied. While there is no set schedule or deadline for an appeal conclusion, we will seek to move expeditiously through the core process. Separately, as directed in the final order, ComEd will file a revised grid plan by March 13. ComEd has fully reengaged staff and all parties to the proceeding to align on the appropriate adjustments to the revised grid plan to fully address the concerns expressed by the commission. We continue to believe significant investment is needed to support Illinois' clean energy goals and desire to promote economic element in the state, a fact acknowledged by all stakeholders. But the revised grid plan we expect to file will reflect the significantly below average financial support provided in the final order and address the commission's feedback to further prioritize affordability. We simply cannot invest at the same pace under an ROE that does not fairly recognize ComEd's cost of financing to do so, especially in the current interest rate and inflation environment. There is no statutory deadline action on the revised grid plan. However, final order stated that the commission appreciates urgency of having a compliant grid plan in place, and is eager to move forward with the grid plan that satisfies the statutory requirements for approval. And so we are optimistic for resolution by year-end. In response to the challenging rate order, our long-term guidance reflects a $1.25 billion reduction in ComEd distribution capital expenditures over the three-year period spanning 2024 to 2026 relative to our Q4 2022 disclosure update. This updated investment outlook for ComEd distribution business includes reductions agreed to with stakeholders, leading up to last October's per quarter. Along with additional reductions to result in a plan that further balances priorities across our stakeholders. As I will discuss later, around our long-term outlook, our guidance has accounted for the possibility that substantially more capital is removed from the plan as a result of the process, despite significant broad-reaching support for our investment strategy. On Slide 10, we provide our updated outlook for CapEx and rate base, covering 2024 to 2027. We plan to invest $7.4 billion in 2024 and a total of $34.5 billion over the next four years, an increase of $3.2 billion or over 10% from the prior planning period. So we reduced ComEd's distribution capital plan by over 18% in response to the final order, the multi-decade energy transformation continues to gain momentum, and we see no shortage of needs to invest for our customers across all of our service territories and an ability to do so at a reasonable cost. We are the largest transmission and distribution utility in the country by customer count, and we have the privilege and responsibility to serve many major densely populated areas. We operate six utilities across seven jurisdictions, including FERC. And beyond our industry-leading size and scale, we are also one of the best operators in this sector, providing a world-class customer experience for reliability at very competitive rates. Given the power of this platform, our updated four-year capital plan includes $3.2 billion of additional capital, net of the adjustments to common distribution to serve our customers. Included in that increase is $1.5 billion of incremental transmission capital over the 2023 to 2026 period, since our last disclosure update. Addressing the significant need for high-voltage investments to support federal, state and customer goals on renewable energy and electrification. $725 million of that increase is projected at ComEd for data center and other high intense new load growth, along with increasing renewables and retirements of older fossil fuel generation is driving increased transmission investment needs. The balance of the additional transmission largely relates to the two large transmission projects discussed on prior earnings calls. The RTEP reliability Window 3 projects awarded by PJM to mitigate reliability challenges driven by incremental data center demand in the region and the other assigned due to the retirement of the brand insurance coal plant. While some of the transmission capital at ComEd is expected to go in service during the guidance period, very little of the transmission spend for the large East Coast project is reflected in the updated rate base outlook. Brand Insurance is expected to go into service in 2028, while the RTEP Window 3 project will be in service closer to 2030, providing line of sight to strong rate base growth beyond the current guidance window. We continue to expect there will be transmission opportunity across our service territories, associated with the same drivers underpinning these projects, high-density, localized load growth, traditional fossil fuel plant retirements increased renewables, not to mention from our extremely well-positioned footprint on the Mid-Atlantic Coast for offshore wind interconnection. To further put our competitive position into perspective, all but one mile of those two large transmission projects is expected to occur on our existing rightways. We expect to remain active in seeking additional opportunities to lead in this space. And as always, we will only include spend in our plan that is identified and expected to proceed tied to the needs of our jurisdictions. In total, our capital plan updates are expected to result in an increase to rate base of 7.5% over the next four years on a compound annual growth basis to $74 billion. This growth adds approximately $18.5 billion to rate base from 2024 through 2027 and reflects a shift in the mix of our total capital growth portfolio by 2% from distribution to transmission since the last disclosure update despite a significant portion of the transmission capital added, not yet placed in service. Exelon's transmission rate base growth recovered through FERC formula rate provides a stable and predictable financial profile. As clean energy and electrification continue to grow, our transmission strategy is designed to adapt to this new paradigm, while continuing to operate the transmission system at world class levels. Moving to slide 11. One way to ensure sustainability of our capital growth profile is to continue delivering superior value as efficiently as possible to our customers and communities. And as one Exelon, we are building from a strong foundation. Our history of steady cost discipline, while delivering a premier experience for our customers has positioned us very well, as you can see in the chart on the right. Exelon's investment in grid modernization has enabled an approximate 40% increase in reliability performance across the platform, whether based on outage frequency or outage duration, while maintaining average electric rates 17% below the top 20 metropolitan cities in the United States. More simply put, when a dollar is placed in our hands to invest, our customers entrust us to create value through reliable, affordable service. Had our adjusted O&M costs growing in line with historical annualized inflation rate of 3.5% from 2016 through 2024, they would have increased by approximately $1.2 billion. Instead, we are projecting a 2.4% CAGR for the same period, eliminating $400 million of customer rate increases that would have occurred without our intentional focus on driving efficiencies. And while 2024 is expected to grow at a higher rate, one key driver is the number of significant back office and operational IT system investments whose savings will be monetized over a longer period of time, as I'll discuss in a minute. In addition, upon aligning with several of our jurisdictions on the spending programs associated with advancing their state's energy goals and priorities, through the recently approved rate cases, we are anticipating some catch up to meet the levels of service and investment agreed upon with our jurisdictions. However, we expect to maintain an annualized growth rate of approximately 2% through 2027, a below inflation level that is expected to result in – to our customers over $400 million lower than they otherwise would have been. Our expectation is to limit the annualized O&M growth rate to approximately 2% over the long-term and maintain our competitive position with rates among those that are the lowest in the nation will improve our customers' experiences. In fact, our multiyear plan rate structures allow us to quickly flow any benefits back to customers. Let me take a moment to highlight a few ways in which we continue delivering value for our customers. First, as Calvin mentioned, a permanent team has established in 2023 to continue efforts to standardize and streamline the structure and operations of the organization. Ensuring all of our efforts are coordinated with the sole purpose of serving our customers and communities in an efficient and superior manner. Second, we have several initiatives underway to upgrade major enterprise resource planning, customer billing and automated work order systems expected to create work efficiencies, some of which I mentioned are driving our spend in 2024. Third, we are standardizing storm response protocol to increase rolled transparency and accountability and emergency events, mitigating cost risk and improving restoration performance in the future. Fourth, we are delivering a framework to migrate from a preventive maintenance, asset management strategy to an automated condition-based maintenance strategy in our transmission operations. And lastly, we are streamlining processes and leveraging technology, particularly in the call center and field for increased efficiency and responsiveness to our customers. To ensure that R&R remain strong and we can invest at the levels our jurisdictions want, we are committed to leveraging our size and scale as one Exelon to manage costs across our operating companies and deliver affordable rates for our customers. Turning to slide 12. With $34.5 billion of projected capital spend driving 7.5% rate base growth and with continued focus on earning ROEs of 9% to 10%. We are initiating an annualized operating earnings growth target of 5% to 7% through 2027 from our 2023 guidance midpoint of $2.36 per share. The lower growth outlook from what we previously laid out is not a decision we took lightly, but as a result of the challenging rate case outcomes and decelerated piece of investment in Illinois. As you heard from Calvin, Illinois is only one jurisdiction in which we operate. We are continuing momentum in our other jurisdictions as the second multiyear plans at Pepco progressed in line with our expectations, as PECO anticipates filing in the first half of this year, consistent with our general two to three-year rate case cadence and does all of our utilities execute on the robust transmission strategy and cost management initiatives outlined on the prior slide. Accordingly, we are confident that our earnings CAGR will be at midpoint or better of the 5% to 7% range over the 2023 to 2027 period and in future updates. Even with the process in Illinois remaining uncertain, our earnings growth guidance is resilient and account for the possibility that limited progress is made in Illinois, and we need to significantly reduce investment in common distribution further. We also continue to project an approximate 60% dividend payout ratio of operating earnings, with the dividend growing in line with our long-term earnings target. We announced today an expected annualized dividend of $1.52 per share in 2024 which is over 5.5% higher than the 23% dividends. Maintaining our commitment to transparency and predictability, we have provided year-over-year drivers contributing to the expected annual growth in our earnings through 2027 on slide 13. While there is variability in the year-over-year growth over the four year time period, the business drivers provide transparency into our expected 5% to 7% growth through 2027. Including an expectation to deliver every year after 2024 within the 5% to 7% range, if not above. I will conclude with a review of our balance sheet activity on slide 14. As you have heard from us before, maintaining a strong balance sheet is core to our strategy, and we closed out another year with credit metrics comfortably exceeding S&P and Moody's downgrade thresholds of 12%. Similar to the first two years since operation, over the guidance period, we project to continue to have approximately 100 basis points of cushion on average for our consolidated corporate credit metrics above the threshold specified by the agencies. While the final rate order issued by the commission in Illinois negatively impacted our future cash flow outlook, we have largely mitigated those impacts through cost management and curtailment of distribution capital spend at ComEd, while ensuring we maintain a safe, reliable growth for customers. As we identify new investments in the plan, we are funding in a prudent manner by incorporating an incremental $1.3 billion of equity to ensure we maintain our previous commitment on pushing and keep us on a path to 13% to 14% consolidated credit metrics over time. As our consolidated spend profile has shifted more towards transmission, the cash generated from these longer-dated investments is expected to follow the earnings largely beyond the guidance period and further strengthen our credit metrics over time. Additionally, I'd remind you that our plan continues to incorporate the assumption that the corporate alternative minimum tax will not allow for repairs. If implemented in a way that mitigates the cash impact, we'd expect an increase of approximately 50 basis points to our consolidated credit metrics average on average over the plan, which would provide incremental cushion. From a financing perspective, we expect the $34.5 billion capital plan to be supported by $19 billion of internally generated cash flow. $10 billion of debt at the utilities and $3 billion of debt at the holding company with the balance funded with a modest amount of equity. In the fourth quarter of 2023, we completed $142 million of equity via our ATM and expect $150 million to be issued in 2024. And as mentioned, to fund the robust $3.2 billion of incremental capital opportunities while maintaining a strong balance sheet, our financing plan includes $1.3 billion of additional equity that we expect to issue over the 2025 through 2027 period. The incremental equity funds 40% of the incremental capital investments over the four-year plan and represent slightly more than 1% per year of Exelon current market cap. As we work with our jurisdictions and identify needs for further investment of utilities, we anticipate that any incremental capital investment will be funded by no more than approximately 40% equity. I want to close by reiterating our confidence in investing an estimated $35 billion of capital across our diversified platform from 2024 to 2027, driving 5% to 7% earnings growth from 2023 to 2027 with an expectation of midpoint or better and maintaining a strong balance sheet while doing so. Thank you. I'll now turn the call back to Calvin for his closing remarks.
Calvin Butler:
Thank you, Jeanne. I'd like to conclude with our priorities and commitments for this year and remind you of Exelon's unique value proposition for their jurisdictions it serves and its investors. As you'll see, they're very consistent with our focus areas for 2024, a good reminder that we aim to reliably deliver against a predictable and consistent strategy, as you'd expect from a premier utility. First, you can count on us to prioritize operational excellence and safety in service of our customers. As you may have seen, once the creation of a Chief Operating Officer position and named Mike Innocenzo, the CEO of PECO to that role. Mike will build on the top-tier performance level customers have come to expect. And in succeeding him, Dave Velazquez, will bring his wealth of experience and strong leadership to PECO. Both moves are a testament to the unparalleled bench strength that Exelon enjoys. And our Chief Human Resource Officer, Amy Best, has been instrumental in building that advantage. We wish her all the best in her next chapter and look forward to Denise Galambos' leadership as Exelon's new Head of HR. Second, we expect to deliver on the prudent financial plan that we have laid out. Spending $7.4 billion less in the grid on behalf of our customers and communities, earning a consolidated return on equity in the 9% to 10% range, consistent with the cost of investing in the grid, and delivering earnings in the range of $2.40 and $2.50 per share, while maintaining a strong balance sheet in executing our financing strategy. Next, we expect to reach collaborative and constructive outcome of the rate cases we have underway, along with the ones we expect to initiate in 2024 to ensure we can continue to deliver safe, reliable, and affordable energy to our customers and help the states make their desired progress on their energy goals. And we will continue our efforts to ensure the energy transformation is as equitable and affordable as possible. Building on our success in 2023 in mid-January, we submitted seven concept papers for the next $3.9 billion that the Department of Energy's grid deployment office is making available under its GRIP program enabled by the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. With proposals ranging from software across the enterprise to enable increasing levels of distributed renewable energy sources to target an investment at Pepco Holdings to combat coastal impacts of climate change they highlight our creative and far-reaching efforts to partner with our jurisdictions and creatively line local state and federal policy. And beyond accessing these funding sources, as Jeanne highlighted, we will continue our efforts to standardize and simplify our operations to manage the increases in costs associated with the expanding needs of the grid, while delivering premium for customers. Lastly, what's distinct this year is a recognition that last December's final order in the ComEd multiyear plan did not bring the resolution on how to invest over the coming years in the first rate case process undertaken by the approach laid out in the Climate and Equitable Jobs Act. But while we are disappointed, we are not deterred. We are committed to finding a path forward with stakeholders that restore certainty for our customers, employees and investors. We believe everyone wants a level of investment that can deliver on the promise of seizure and positions us to lead the energy transformation. And so will we be working toward that outcome while preparing to pivot if that's not the case. Delivering against these priorities while continuing to establish our position as a premier T&D utility, and Slide 16 reinforces that value that we offer. Exelon's platform is incredibly unique. We have the privilege and responsibility serving some of the nation's greatest cities with jurisdictions that recognize the unique opportunity they have to lead the energy transformation. Our asset footprint, the transmission and distribution network that is the lifeblood of making that transformation happen for our jurisdictions is unmatched. As is our scale with over 10.5 million customers across our seven ratemaking jurisdictions. We have been setting the bar for operational performance for years and our ability to invest to support that performance is backed by strong forward-looking and predictable regulatory mechanisms. With our dividend yield at 4.5% and a 5% to 7% annualized earnings growth rate that we have a strong conviction in achieving, we are offering investors total shareholder returns in the 9.5% to 11.5% range and extremely attracted risk-adjusted proposition. I am so proud of this team for the commitments made and kept in 2023, and we look forward to doing the same in 2024. As always, thank you for your time and support, and we'll now take your questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Shar Pourreza from Guggenheim Partners.
Shar Pourreza :
Hey guys. Good morning.
Calvin Butler :
Good morning, Shar.
Jeanne Jones :
Hey, good morning.
Shar Pourreza :
Good morning. Calvin, starting with Illinois, I mean the team has had a few months now to digest the order. You're not alone in facing sort of that disorder from the ICC. I mean, both the electric and gas guys have throttled investments and they've laid off workers. I guess what did you guys miss heading into that final order? But really more importantly, why is this current distribution spend now appropriate? Is it a floor kind of positioned for upside in Jeanne's comments for 2024 kind of broad with upside and downside. So just trying to handicap the path forward with this new guidance. Thanks.
Calvin Butler:
Yes. Thank you, Shar. And as both Jeanne and I expressed, disappointment with the outcome. And the disappointment, I'll frame it first, that despite the high level of engagement with stakeholders, and the administration around the state's policy and alignment. And with the passage of the Climate Equitable and Jobs Act, the work that the team put in, and I need to give credit to Joe Jonas and his team for the amount of effort that they put in. Let me take a moment to remind you of the steps that we're taking leading up to that final order, and we were tracking. Leading up January 2023 filing, Shar, we participated in 15 ICC led workshops with hundreds of participants. We responded to more than 10,000 data requests during that 11-month rate process, and we ended up with a proposed order that granted almost 80% -- 79% or so of our revenue requirement ask with only a $350 million gap in rate base or about 2% by 2027. But part of that process with all those stakeholders, the one group that we hadn't heard from was the Illinois Commerce Commission themselves. Well, now we have. And our job is to align with what they are requesting. And we jumped right back in, as Jeanne outlined, into that stakeholder process. Jill and his team are meeting on a regular basis with those stakeholders to lay it out and to meet the objectives that seizure requires and what the commissioners want. And they outlined affordability, reliability, which their common goals. Now it's just a matter of how do we get there. So to your question, what confidence do we have? We are building a plan to achieve those goals, and we will continue to talk with those stakeholders. But as Jeanne also laid out, we are ready to pivot if required. What I can tell you with assurance is that this 5% to 7% earnings growth is premised on multiple outcomes. We're taking those things into consideration, and we'll be able to make those adjustments. But we're going to put together and are putting together a plan to meet all of those objectives. But let me just be very clear. Our priorities are the following
Jeanne Jones:
Yes. I'll just update. I think I'll address Shar's second part of that question. So 2024 to your point, Shar, we've provided a guidance range with a midpoint that assumes the 12-14-2023 order. We have the rehearing process going on, which is about an interim revenue requirement while the grid plan is being approved. And then we have the grid plan process, which will kick off and we filed that on March 13. Depending on those outcomes, there could be upside to the 2024, if we get an interim revenue requirement or a grid plan move, but the midpoint assumes the December order. Now beyond 2024, we did approve the -- or sorry, we did assume that the grid plan would be approved. It is a great plan that, as Calvin mentioned, is focused on safe, reliable operations and alignment on the progress in CEJA it's lower, right? We're not going to be able to make as much progress on CEJA just given the unfavorable economics. But we do want to make progress and we will. Now there is not a set time line for the commission to opine on the grid plan. But we are, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we are optimistic it gets done this year. The commission stated that in their order in December that they understand the sense of urgency. And so while it does assume that the grid plan is approved, 2025 to 2027, we are prepared if we cannot get alignment to make further reductions and still deliver.
Shar Pourreza:
Perfect. I appreciate it. Let me leave at that. Thank you guys.
Calvin Butler:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Nicholas Campanella from Barclays.
Nicholas Campanella:
Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. So I guess just to, kind of, clarify on the CapEx plan. I mean the plan is $3 billion can change higher, to your point. I guess your 2026 rate base does seem like it is lower, though plan-over-plan. So I guess, could you just help us clarify what's maybe driving that? I know there's probably some moving pieces in the starting point for ComEd rate base, but yes.
Jeanne Jones:
Yeah, it's really the difference between the distribution. So pulling back on the distribution investments and then replacing it with transmission. We talked about it in the prepared remarks. There's kind of two slices of it. There's the awards we've been talking about, the brand insurers and the ARTEP window, where, those projects will close in 2028 and at the end of 2028 for brand insurers and then 2030 for the ARTEP window. And so those will go into rate base outside of the planning period. And so as we move distribution out and layer those in, you're not seeing the 1:1 offset rate base. We do have other transmission that will close within the period, but it is back-end loaded. And as you know, transmission doesn't have, even if it's closed within that you're right, it doesn't have the same impact of distribution. So it's really just the shift that we made from D2C.
Nicholas Campanella:
That's helpful. I appreciate that. And then, I guess, maybe you can help us understand on the financing, really not much equity to do in 2024. Just where does your balance sheet stand for 2024 relative to the agency minimums? And just what's the feedback been from the agencies on this new plan and maintaining the stable outlook? Thanks.
Jeanne Jones:
Yeah. Yeah, no problem. So I think the message is consistent with how we talked about it last year. So we had said over the planning period, we expect to be at 100 basis points of cushion absent CMT. And if we get the corporate alternative tax alleviated, we'd be back into the middle of that range. Obviously, a couple of things happened since we last spoken, first, the ComEd order. And with that order, we did see an impact to our balance sheet. We then mitigated that impact largely, not one-for-one, but we had a substantial mitigation through the reduction of the distribution spend as well as O&M reductions and looking at pension contributions and other things to pull all the things we could to make sure we got back up and mitigate as much as we could, a large portion of that ComEd order. The other piece was layering in the new capital. As we layered in that new capital and funding it with about 40% equity, we were able to maintain that cushion that we wanted, right, that 100 basis. Now if you think about it from a year-over-year perspective, as we've also talked about in the past, I think we expect the front-end of the plan to be a little bit lower, particularly on the Moody's side, still about the threshold. But lower in 2024 and getting better over the planning period, mostly due to some of the cash recovery regulatory mechanisms like the formula rate true-up for 2023 that will come in 2025. And then -- so that kind of -- that's why we show you that average but at the average of 13%. And then again, I would say the impact of the equity starts to sort of build on itself. And so as you get to the back end of the planning period and beyond, that is helpful in terms of continuing to bolster that cushion. But then also as those transmission projects close, the cash flows, they are also beneficial to the metrics. Yeah. Okay. Thanks, Nick.
Nicholas Campanella:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. One moment for next question. Our next question comes from the line of Steve Fleishman from Wolfe Research.
Calvin Butler:
Hey, Steve.
Steve Fleishman:
Excuse me. Hi. Good morning. So just I know you're engaging with a lot of the parties, as you said, in Illinois. Just -- is there any chance you could settle some of these issues? Or do we need to just let the commission kind of on everything? And is there any -- beyond just the order they gave, is there any opportunity to get better sense from them, the commission level, what they want, are we just going to have to kind of wait for a fine water, again?
Calvin Butler:
Yes. No, thank you, Steve. I'll start with this, and then I have with me Gil Quiniones, who's the CEO of ComEd to really be in here as well. My view on this settlement, as I mentioned, Gil and his team are engaged with the stakeholders. We may read some settlement in discussions with stakeholders about what they're looking for, and we would submit it to the commission. But I think overall, a settlement in principle on the rate case, I think, is unlikely. The process will continue to play out. And the fact that, we are in the midst of a pending proceeding, we cannot speak directly nor should we, with the commissioners themselves. So our view of what they -- where they stand came in the form of their December 14 order, and we have a clear understanding. But what we can do and what we are doing is engaging with staff. Consistently talking again as we did for the last two years. We're back reengaged in that process. And what we are providing them and sharing with them and then I'll turn it over to Gil is under the tenets of the Climate and Equitable Jobs Act. The need to align policy and practice, what the law says and what we need to do to carry it out seek some alignment between the legislative body and the commission to accomplish the shared goals of all of us. And that is our conversation from day one, and that will continue to be based on the feedback that they've given. Gil, anything you want to add?
Gil Quiniones:
Yeah. Calvin, and Steve, what's different now is that it's very clear in the final order what they identified as things that complied with the law and things that the commission things there are gaps. So one-by-one, we are making sure that we're addressing those gaps in the final order. Second, as Calvin said, we're working very closely with staff and each of the intervenors in this case to make sure that we have alignment. In some cases, some intervenors have very specific areas that they would like for us to address. And as Calvin said, in those cases, we may have alignment where we can stipulate in our testimony that we have arrived at an agreement with those specific issues. So, we're making sure that we are addressing what the final order set, where the gaps are. We're working very closely with staff to make sure we have alignment with them. and then we're working with each of the intervenors in the case for their very specific issues that they want included in our grid plan.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay, great. Thank you.
Calvin Butler:
Thank you, Steve.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Bank of America.
Calvin Butler:
Hey Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey good morning team. Hey great. Appreciate it. Just wanted to follow-up real quickly on some of the Nick's cash questions real quickly. Can you guys comment a little bit? I mean, FFO looking through the four-year window here, a little bit better than the prior plan. And that's in spite of obviously some of the rate base dynamics, et cetera, but it looks like a $2 billion bump to CFO there helps the balance sheet. But can you talk about that a little bit further here? And then also maybe if you can to elaborate on some of the earlier questions, I mean, where do you guys overall within the plan? I know that you articulated here given years up and down. But overall, are you in the lower end or the midpoint, if you will, of the updated EPS?
Calvin Butler:
So, let me take the last part first, and then I'll turn it over to Jeanne. So, as we talk about the 5% to 7% earnings growth, we are committed to midpoint or better. And I think Jeanne even referenced at least, right? So, this is a plan that we've put together that's very prudent and our ability to achieve it. And we've demonstrated as an organization, we can take on headwind and continue to meet the target. As I said, Julien, I'm so proud of the team and the commitments made and commitments kept, right? And we will continue to do that. You think about what we had to overcome in 2023 to deliver in excess of our midpoint to $2.38. So, that's the commitment there. And I'll let Jeanne talk about the additional equity and balance sheet and so forth.
Jeanne Jones:
Yes. And then Julien -- we do also continue to show you, Julien, in the year-by-year, which gets you to that midpoint or better. So, again, there will still be some years above the range, years within the range, all within the range, but some different points to get you to that mid-screen or better, as Calvin mentioned, that side continues in the deck. On the balance sheet, I guess, I would characterize a little bit different. I think we're consistent with where we were. So, we had expected to be at the 100 basis points of cushion. We expect to continue to contain that 100 basis points. We largely mitigated the ComEd order through our own internal levers. And then as we layered in the capital to maintain that cushion, we funded it in a balanced way by layering in that 40% of every new dollar of equity.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. And through the plan, you're assuming consistent authorized equity ratios and returns to get to that midpoint or better?
Jeanne Jones:
We are assuming the authorized, yes, for each of the jurisdictions on the cap structure.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Yes, cap structure and ROE, yes, indeed. Excellent. Well, I will leave it there guys. Thank you very much.
Calvin Butler:
Thank you, Julien.
Operator:
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our last question comes from the line of Ross Fowler from UBS.
Ross Fowler :
Good morning, Calvin. Good morning, Jeanne. So I want to acknowledge before I ask my question, that there is upside to the unit process, but I wanted to spend a minute on, Jeanne, I think what you talked about is the downside to the forecast and the risks in Illinois versus the plan. You did a great job mitigating some of that today with the transmission CapEx to replace sort of the distribution CapEx. But that was a lot of brownfield transmission that we've been talking about for a while and even that is sort of back-end loaded in the forecast and greenfield would presumably take even longer. So maybe you can continue to do that if there's downside to distribution CapEx in that ComEd in the plan, but what are the other levers that you could pull here? Is that lower equity as CapEx declines? Is that lower O&M? How do I think about what levers you have at your disposal to sort of offset that downside risk should that be out coming Illinois?
Jeanne Jones :
Yes. I think I get a couple of parts there. I would say, one, for every plan that we put forth always prudently include some sort of for lack of a better word, cushion, right? So we're not -- we've got a bunch of scenarios that we're modeling and we're making sure that we can deliver regardless of where the final grid plan comes out. I would say at the low ROEs, right? It takes a lot of capital at ComEd, to make it on the distribution side to make it a meaningful impact up or down, and we're prepared to pull back if we need to. And to your point then, that could have further impacts from a financing savings and other things. Obviously, we would always look for O&M levers as well as we have done in the past. I would say we -- portion of the transmission that we added, as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, was not what we had talked about, it was new opportunities that we had on the list at ComEd related to the high-density localized low growth there on the data centers, continuing to modernize that portion of the grid. So these are needs that need to be addressed on our system. The other thing I would say is, as we talked about before, while we have the two opportunities that we mentioned, we continue to see where we operate in our jurisdiction potential for further transmission related to interconnection of offshore wind, whether it's the Maryland executive orders, the New Jersey executive orders. As those projects are built, given our footprint, we stand to be competitive for that. So I think there's other opportunities that exist. And the plan reflects the upside from continuing to execute on the grid plan, but also the ability to pull back. We also don't assume any of the performance metrics, right? I think we're going to make sure our growth plan is also set up to be able to capture some of those. Obviously, that's a metric, but we're going to do a work real hard to get some of that, and that's not included in the plan either.
Calvin Butler :
Yes. And if I can just add, Ross, I think on what's critical, what Jeanne has said is that understanding Illinois is just one of our many jurisdictions in which we operate and what we continue to demonstrate in terms of the value of Exelon is our scale and size and the jurisdictions and the opportunities that exist across our platform. We always talk about the power of the platform, and you saw it flexed in 2023, and you'll see it flexed over our long-range plan from 2024 to 2027. So Illinois is a focal area. And as I shared with you, it's a priority for all of us. I know Gil and his team are fixed on it, but we have other businesses that we will continue to run and as always, manage our costs and to ensure that we do it in a very pragmatic basis. Thank you for the question.
Ross Fowler:
Sure. Thanks, Calvin. Appreciate it. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. At this time, I would now like to turn the conference back over to Calvin Butler, Exelon's President and CEO, for closing remarks.
Calvin Butler:
Gigi, thank you very much. And more importantly, thank you to everyone for joining today's call. We look forward to seeing many of you in 2024 and as committed for the upcoming spring conferences, Jeanne and I and Andy, the IR team will be on the road. They promised me that we'd be doing that. So thank you, and I look forward to engaging with all of you. But more importantly, I just want to say to the 19,500 employees here at Exelon. Thank you for everything that you guys do each and every day. So proud of the performance that we delivered in 2023, and I know we're just getting started. So with that, Gigi, that concludes today's call.
Operator:
Thanks to all our participants for joining us today. This concludes our presentation. You may now disconnect. Have a good day.
Operator:
Hello, and welcome to Exelon's Third Quarter Earnings Call. My name is Gigi, and I'll be your event specialist today. [Operator Instructions]. It is now my pleasure to turn today's program over to Andrew Plunge, Vice President of Investor Relations. The floor is yours.
Andrew Plenge:
Thank you, Gigi, and good morning, everyone. We're pleased to have you with us for our 2023 third quarter earnings call. Leading the call today are in Calvin Butler, Exelon's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Jeanne Jones, Exelon's Chief Financial Officer. Other members of Exelon's senior management team are also with us today and they will be available to answer your questions following our prepared remarks. Today's presentation, along with our earnings release and other financial information can be found in the Investor Relations section of Exelon's website. We would also like to remind you that today's presentation and the associated earnings release materials contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. You can find the cautionary statements on these risks on Slide 2 of today's presentation or in our SEC filings. In addition, today's presentation includes references to adjusted operating earnings and other non-GAAP measures. between these measures and the nearest equivalent GAAP measures can be found in the appendix of our presentation and in our earnings release. It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Calvin Butler, Exelon's President and CEO.
Calvin Butler:
Thank you, Andrew, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you listening to our third quarter earnings call. Despite historically mild first 9 months of the year and pressures from storms in August and September, we delivered earnings right in line with the expectations laid out in our last earnings call. For the quarter, as you can see on Slide 4, we we earned $0.70 per share on a GAAP basis and $0.67 per share a non-GAAP basis. With the critical summer season behind us, we have narrowed our guidance range to $2.32 to to $2.40 per share for 2023. Jeanne will talk more about our results for the quarter and expected financial performance for the balance of the year. Operational performance across the platform remained very strong in the third quarter. With storms that brought 110-mile per hour wind gust and 29 major event days that impacted almost 1.3 million customers, we not only kept our financial plan on track but we also continued our track record of top quartile reliability performance, and we continue to make progress in safety and customer satisfaction. The third quarter also brought continued execution of key milestones in our 6 active base rate cases underway in Illinois, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey and the District of Columbia. Beginning with ComEd, we received a proposed order from the ALJ on its multiyear rate and grid plan on October '23. We're encouraged that the proposed order recognizes that meeting the ambitious electrification and decarbonization goals set by Illinois groundbreaking Climate and Equitable Jobs Act will require ComEd to make significant investments and it largely follows an investment plan that has alignment across a broad group of stakeholders. But the order does not recognize a fair cost of financing that investment. It provides a return on equity that is well below the national average. It does not recognize the significant investment we have made in our pension which supports ComEd's employees and has saved customers almost $1 billion to date with its returns and continues to generate savings for our customers. And it does not allow for a prudent capitalization of the business, has equity ratios below an appropriate level. So we are disappointed with elements of the proposed order, but we expect the commission will consider the full record developed when writing its final order. And we continue to make our case with stakeholders. As a reminder, we expect to receive the final order in mid-December. As it pertains to BGE, all parties have filed their briefs and we now await a final order from the Maryland Public Service Commission expected on December 14. We have put forward a strong investment plan to address the needs of our customers that is aligned with the state's ambitious goals to advance the energy transformation. We remain optimistic that the commission will reach a constructive outcome that appropriately supports our customers and the state's goals laid out in the Climate Solutions Now Act. As you will hear from Jeanne, we also made progress in the Atlantic City Electric rate case, where a stipulation of settlement awaits final approval. The Delmarva Power and Electric rate case is progressing as well. along with the Pepco DC and Pepco Maryland multiyear rate plans. On our longer-term outlook, we continue to reaffirm our existing guidance. We expect to be at the midpoint or better of our 6% to 8% annualized earnings growth ranges and to grow the dividend in line with those earnings. The capital we are investing across our jurisdictions to support the needs of our customers in their energy transformation is what drives that growth. On Tuesday, PJM selected project proposal submitted for the competitive transmission proposal Window 3. Exelon's proposed transmission projects were among a set of solutions to maintain reliability in the Maryland, Pennsylvania and Virginia areas, driven by significant load increases in Northern Virginia. Specifically, PJM has recommended a suite of solutions that include a scope of work for Exelon that is estimated to cost approximately $850 million, with portions assigned to BGE and PECO, Pepco and Delmarva Power. As this spend is weighted toward the back end of the decade with expected completion dates of 2029 and 2030, that extend beyond the current guidance range, it provides another good indication of the trends in place and degree of work that the grid will require well into the future. I'll also note 2 additional exciting developments this quarter that support our jurisdictions energy goals. First, ComEd, PECO and Pepco were part of 2 coalitions receiving hydrogen hub awards in our service territories. These projects will go a long way toward accelerating access to clean and affordable hydrogen to meet the nation's ambitious carbon reduction goals and creating thousands of clean energy jobs in Exelon service territories. Second, the U.S. Department of Energy recommended 2 of Exelon submissions in the grid resiliency and innovation partnership program for negotiation of a final award, totaling $150 million across our ComEd and PECO utilities. ComEd will direct its $50 million award to enable customers and partners to deploy next-generation technologies for growing solar installations and electric vehicles. And PECO is leveraging its $100 million award to enhance resiliency in vulnerable areas of PECO service territory that are susceptible to severe weather events. When combined with the middle mile grants that BGE and ComEd were awarded by the National Telecom and Information Administration, Exelon Utilities are approaching $200 million in total a federally funded IIJA grant awards this year, not to mention the amount directed towards its jurisdictions through vehicles like the EPA's Clean School Bus program. The federal support is critical to supporting an affordable and equitable transition. The need transmission expansion, the investment in new energy supply and the ever-increasing need for a more resilient grid all highlight the impact that an economy that is increasingly dependent on electricity will have on our investment plan. The energy transformation will last decades not years, which is why we're confident that investment opportunities will continue to strengthen and lengthen our rate base growth. We look forward to incorporating these updates into our annual financial update on the fourth quarter earnings call next February. I'll now speak to our operating performance in the third quarter on Slide 5. Reliability remains outstanding. All 4 utility operating companies had top quartile performance in both reduced outage frequency and shortened ops duration. COMED operated in the top decile for both metrics. In fact, ComEd and PHI again, achieved best on-record outage frequency and duration performance, which makes for the third quarter in a row for those 2 operating companies. Performance like this is particularly impressive when you consider the level of storm activity we experienced this quarter, which is a testament to the investments we're making in the system and the talented, dedicated employees working this system. As an example, in just one damaging storm, BGE crews replaced 32 miles of wire and 82 transformers, and they did it 36 hours faster than historical models predicted was possible. That commitment to operational excellence across the Exelon franchise is a key part of what makes us who we are. And our gas operations are keeping pace. All 3 gas utility operating companies, again continued to perform at top decile levels for gas response. And as it pertains to customer satisfaction, while 3 of our utility operating companies continue to benchmark in the second quartile, PECO has progressed to the first quartile. Our improved benchmarking performance at PECO reflects the benefits of those efforts, and all utility operating companies did see increases in their scores. But as we have mentioned, overall satisfaction has been affected by inflation and sunsetting pandemic era relief relative to the benchmark year. The headwinds facing our customers are real, which is why we are focused on ensuring customers are aware of their options to manage their energy use and reduce their bills. We look to build on increasing satisfaction levels into 2024. Last, we saw improvement in our safety performance benchmark at PHI versus the second quarter. We continue to focus on the areas of underperformance and implement utility-specific action plans to address the higher OSHA rates. And you can see that with PHI scores, where our efforts to reinforce procedures, situation awareness and crew communication has yielded results. And we are also continuing in partnership with the industry to drive a more sophisticated discussion and set of tools around safety to focus employees on which behaviors will most impactfully improve safety and ensure we do our most important job, making sure each employee returns home safely after every shift. I assure you that we will continue to push for excellence across all areas of our operations as we close out 2023. I will now turn it to Jeanne to review our financial performance and regulatory updates.
Jeanne Jones:
Thank you, Calvin, and good morning, everyone. Today, I will cover our third quarter financial update, along with the outlook for the balance of 2023 and our progress on the 2023 rate case schedule. I will also highlight a recently completed transmission rebuild project by Delmarva Power & Light designed to further improve reliability for our customers in Eastern Maryland. Starting on Slide 6, we show our quarter-over-quarter adjusted operating earnings. As Calvin mentioned, Exelon earned $0.67 per share in the third quarter of 2023 versus $0.75 in the third quarter of 2022, reflecting lower results of $0.08 per share over the same period. Results of $0.67 in the third quarter represent 28% of our expected full year earnings, which is right in line with the expectations provided on the prior earnings call. Earnings are lower in the third quarter relative to the same period last year, driven primarily by $0.07 from the impact of weather and storms and summer activity returning to normal in '23, $0.04 of higher interest expense due to the rise in interest rates and higher levels of debt at the holding company and at some of our utilities and $0.03 of O&M tax and distribution formula rate timing expected to reverse in the fourth quarter. This was partially offset by $0.05 of higher distribution in transmission rates associated with incremental investments, net of depreciation as well as the $0.01 up carrying costs related to the carbon mitigation credit balance at ComEd. Despite the summer storms and mild weather impacting our nondecoupled jurisdictions, we have delivered year-to-date earnings each quarter in line with indications and we continue to offset the weather headwinds with a combination of O&M levers across the platform, higher treasury rates impacting ComEd's distribution ROE, favorable depreciation of PECO and the full year earnings impact of the carrying costs associated with the CMC regulatory asset balance. With one quarter remaining in the year, we are narrowing our 2023 EPS guidance range to $2.32 to $2.40 per share from $2.30 to $2.42 per share. Our full year guidance accounts for the absence of proactive derisking that occurred in the fourth quarter of '22, the reversal of year-to-date O&M tax and distribution formula rate timing and the anticipated onetime impact in December of BGE's reconciliation for the 2021 and 2022 under recovery. Through continued increase in rate base as we deploy capital for the benefit of our customers, along with managing work plans across the platform, we remain on track to deliver earnings within expectations. Recall, our goal is the way to achieve the midpoint or better of the guidance range. Lastly, we are reaffirming the fully regulated operating EPS compounded annual growth target of 6% to 8% from 2021 and 2022 guidance and plans through 2025 and 2026, respectively. Again, our expectation is to be at the midpoint or better of that growth range. Turning to Slide 7. As Calvin mentioned, we continue to execute in all 6 open distribution rate case proceedings this quarter, in line with the established procedural federal. Each rate case remains on track, and we are approaching the final key milestones in December, ComEd and BGE's multiyear rate plan rate cases. Let me begin with key developments since the last call. First, DPL Delaware received intermediary testimony and filed a rebuttal supporting the key elements of the company's proposed electric distribution revenue requirement increase of $39.3 million. DPL Delaware will continue to establish that the proposed plan is necessary to continue providing safe and reliable service, meet customer expectations and support Delaware clean energy goals while balancing customer affordability. A final order is expected in the second quarter of 2024. Second, we are pleased with the progress in Atlantic City Electric's distribution rate case with the stipulation of settlement in place, the procedural schedule was suspended in early September. On October 21, ACE filed a stipulation of settlement with the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities. And on October 24, the administrative law judge presiding over the case recommended the settlement with all parties be approved. ACE anticipates final approval of the settlement from the BPU in the fourth quarter. Next, the procedural schedule in Pepco's DC multiyear rate plan filing has been adjusted to accommodate the commission's request for supplemental testimony from Pepco. Similar to the commission's request from its personal plan, this directive provides Pepco the opportunity to demonstrate the benefits afforded by multiyear rate plans relative to traditional rate making. Pepco now expects to receive intervenor testimony on December 11, and evidentiary hearings will take place in March 2024, with the final order expected from the Public Service Commission of the District of Columbia by mid-2024. While still in the discovery phase of its second multiyear rate plan filing, Pepco Maryland continues to detail for its proposed investment plan designed to advance the state's climate and clean energy goals. Upcoming milestones include intervenor testimony expected to be filed by the Maryland Public Service Commission staff on December 15 and the evidentiary hearing set to begin in March 2024. Briefs will be filed in April of '24, and and we expect a final order by June of 2024. Additionally, in Maryland, evidentiary hearings were conducted and brief filed in September and October, respectively, as part of BGE's pending multiyear electric and gas rate case. The hearings allow parties to share perspectives on the proposed investments, their alignment with the goals of the state and how best to balance the state's goals around the energy transformation, affordability and customers' interest. As expected, the Maryland Commission continues to prioritize safety, reliability and affordability. And it is also focused on addressing the goals of the Climate Solutions Now Act. We continue to believe BGE's proposed investment plans are well suited for Maryland to meet its aggressive clean energy goals in an affordable manner. The proceeding is expected to run its full course with the final order expected from the commission by December 14. Moving on to ComEd's multiyear rate plan proceeding. As you heard from Calvin, the administrative law judges presiding over a case issued a proposed order on October 23. While the ALJ's proposed order recognizes that ComEd must undertake significant infrastructure investments to meet the state's clean energy goals, it does not fairly recognize ComEd's cost of financing to do so, especially in the current interest rate environment. We continue to believe the evidence on record supports ComEd's requests on ROE, capital structure and a return on its pension assets, among other factors, to provide a clear path in achieving a cleaner energy future for our customers and communities in Illinois. But while we are disappointed in the proposal, let me remind you that this is just another data point in the process and is nonbinding on the commission. Given the number of variables that play in the transition to a multiyear plan, our current plan contemplates a range of fair and reasonable scenarios in the final order to achieve the state's aggressive decarbonization and electrification goals. We look forward to the remaining steps in the process, including filing briefed on exception by November 8, reply briefs on exception by November 20 and participating in oral arguments, which we anticipate will occur in late November. Each of these avenues will provide ComEd the opportunity to demonstrate the facts on key elements that are supported on the record and advocate for our position, which we continue to believe are in the best interest of customers and aligned with the state's energy policy goals. A final order is expected at the last scheduled ICC meeting of the year on December 14, but due no later than December 20. Relationships across our jurisdictions remain constructive, and we remain steadfast in our engagement with key stakeholders across the regulatory bodies, the state legislators and the communities to support our shared interest in the energy transformation. As a reminder, by next year, we expect to have a resolution on all 4 of the ongoing multiyear rate plans in Illinois, Maryland and D.C., which will support their respective clean energy and climate goals while balancing customer affordability and equity. More details on the rate cases can be found on Slides 20 to 26 of the appendix. Moving to Slide 8. During the third quarter, we continue to deploy capital for the benefit of our customers and are on track to invest $7.2 billion expected for 2023. These investments are designed to deliver answers to an expanding set of needs for tomorrow's spread
Calvin Butler:
Thank you, Jeanne. With just a couple of months left to go in 2023, I'll conclude with a reminder of our goals and priorities for the year. First, our foundation is operational excellence, which benefits our customers and communities. As I mentioned, our employees rose to the challenges they always do for our summer storms, but we're ready to close out the year strong to prove we have the best operators in the business. Indeed, PA Consulting just awarded ComEd with its 2022 Reliability One National Reliability Award, one of the most prestigious honors in the electric utility industry, recognizing it for sustained leadership, innovation and achievement in the area of electric reliability. This award highlights the value of a committed operating team executing on a sophisticated operating plan and investment strategy provides the customers the grid that they deserve. I now want to take a moment to just recognize Terry Donnelley, COO of ComEd. Terry will be retiring at the end of this year after almost 12 years in that position. Terry thank you for his continued steadfast leadership and also the selection between him and Gil Kionas of David Perez, who is stepping in as a longtime Senior VP into the role of Chief Operating Officer. We have high expectations of date that they will continue to deliver on the operational performance that Illinois customers have come to expect. We are also focused on completing a number of the rate cases we have underway, including BGE's multiyear plan for its gas and electric systems as well as ComEd's multiyear rate and grid investment plans. We continue to believe that parties in both cases have a shared interest in reaching outcomes that align with the state's energy policy and equity goals while ensuring we have the certainty and confidence to make the investments needed to serve our customers reliably. The Climate and Equitable Jobs Act was passed in 2021, with the promise of making Illinois a leader in the energy transformation. The approval of these first electric multiyear plans are a key moment for the state to advance its clean energy goals and follow the thoughtful ambitious plan and process the state laid out in the Climate and Equitable Jobs Act. We are optimistic that the state of Illinois will seize the opportunity. Third, we will finish out the year meeting our financial guidance, narrowing our guidance range to $2.32 to $2.40 per share demonstrates the confidence we have in executing despite the historically mild weather this year, and we remain on track to invest $7.2 billion of capital and earned consolidated ROE in the 9% to 10% range. Lastly, we never want to lose sight of our responsibility to our customers and communities as the premier transmission distribution utility. Just this past quarter, ComEd and PECO were 2 of only 6 utilities to partner with local governments and community-based groups to win DOE support from its Clean Energy to Communities program. Through this program, ComEd will help explore low carbon transportation technologies for Chicago, like freight travel electrification, while PECO will assist in creating a regional hub to streamline procurement of the most impactful clean energy technologies for the Delaware Valley region. BGE awarded grants to 41 nonprofit organizations in Maryland to support environmental stewardship programs. And Pepco energized the first of 3 substations as part of its capital grid project which is Pepco's forward-looking plan to upgrade or add substations and underground transmission cable to modernize and strengthen our nation capitals grid. In doing so, Pepco was able to provide $29 million to local suppliers and $30 million to diverse suppliers as part of the work to complete that substation. And those examples show whether it's providing direct support to our customers, our community organizations, facilitating access to support from federal or national organizations or ensuring our work on the grid benefits our jurisdictions end-to-end, the Exelon team is focused on ensuring all of its actions are intentional in serving the greater purpose of leading the energy transformation. These goals are what make for premier T&D utility, one that embraces the opportunity to lead the energy transformation partners with its jurisdictions to achieve their goals, uplift its communities and meets the expectations laid out for the investment community, offering a total shareholder return of 9% to 11%. Thank you, as always, for your interest. I'll now turn it to Gigi for your questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. Your first question comes from the line of James Kennedy from Guggenheim Partners.
James Kennedy:
So starting off, I guess, with the ALJ order in Illinois. Calvin, you mentioned your expectations that the commission will consider the full record, I guess, is the draft the final order. I realized you've been in a formula construct for a while, but is there any prior precedent for the ICC to make those kind of departures from the ALJ? Just trying to understand the prospects here for vision and your confidence level.
Calvin Butler:
Yes. First off, James, thank you for your question. And there is precedent. The record is going to be considered by the full commission. But the commission definitely has leeway to look at the record separately, taking an advisement what the ALJ has said. But also keep in mind, this is the first time that this commission has come together under a multiyear rate plan and grid plan to consider how ComEd's proposals meet the state's goals. So I do -- they do know there's a difference in opinion on how to approach this. And I think they will take that all in consideration because we have 3 new commissioners And they will lean into this discussion and look at what they need to do to achieve the state's goals, which are very specific. And I have Gil Ciona, the CEO comment with me. Gil, anything you'd like to add?
Unidentified Company Representative:
Yes. I think it's also important to note that this is really -- it's a key milestone in the process, but there are 4 other milestones coming up as both Calvin and Jeanne mentioned, the briefs to the commission and exceptions, replies to those briefs and oral arguments before the final order. As Calvin said, we feel strong conviction that the evidence on record supports ComEd's requests. And based on what the commissioners have done in the past, we anticipate that they will make adjustments and corrections before they issue a final order. We expect the commission will not only consider post order, but the entirety of the record in the case and the policies of the state. It is an historic once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, and we believe the commission will meet the moment in advancing the ambitious goals of the Climate Equitable Jobs Act and the state's economic development aspirations.
Jeanne Jones:
Does that answer your question, James?
James Kennedy:
Yes. And then just, maybe one for Jeanne. Just -- on the remaining equity need in the current plan, I guess, if you don't get the minimum tax clarity you're looking for from the IRS, would you need to accelerate the need into '24? Or does '25 mean '25? Just any additional color on timing?
Jeanne Jones:
Yes. No, everything we've given you assumes that we pay, the corporate alternative minimum tax. And so regardless of how that turns out, our commitment is to do the 425 million between now and 2025. So that doesn't change regardless of the outcome here.
James Kennedy:
Okay. And then just real quickly, the transition spend today, that is purely incremental to the 870 you debuted on the last call related to stores, right?
Jeanne Jones:
Yes. There are two similar numbers, but two different projects.
Operator:
One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of David Arcaro from Morgan Stanley.
David Arcaro:
Maybe on that same topic, with the transmission projects that has selected. Could you elaborate a bit on which year the CapEx would start to flow into the spending plan? And also, just as you think about PJM and potential competitive opportunities going forward, are there future opportunities that you plan to bid into also?
Calvin Butler:
Yes, David. I'll start, but then I'll turn it over to David Velazquez, who's here with me that has our transmission strategy group reporting up to him and working with all the opcos. As I mentioned, I believe our transmission buildout has tremendous opportunity to not only strengthen what we're doing but also lengthen our earnings growth and doing it in a way that ensures not only reliability but the ability to connect renewables to the grid. And David and his team have put together a robust plan, and I'll let him take a moment to walk you through.
David Velazquez:
So David, this is Dave So on the transmission projects, like, to give you a sense, we have brand insurers, which was the project we talked about by last quarter, which has an in-service date in the end of 2028. So you think about cash flows there, and again, you have to recognize we're in preliminary engineering yet, so this is liable to move a little bit. But I figure typically like in the last couple of years, '27, '28, you spent somewhere around 40% to 50% of that expenditure. And then leading up to it starting next year, you'd slowly ramp into it. In the first 3 years, you'd spend somewhere again between 50% and 60% of the project. And the Dominion, which has an in-service date part of it in '29, part of it is '30, I think you'd see a similar profile where in the last couple of years, you probably see around 40% to 50% of the expenditures and 3 or 4 years leading up to that. So some of this will be within the current period and some of it will be after the current period. And I think on the broader question, as Calvin has said, there's a lot of opportunities out there. We look at every single competitive window that PJM puts out there and make decisions whether we think we can add value for our customers by presenting proposals and we will continue to do that. I think also there's other opportunities out there. Offshore wind is one. In Maryland, the commission has to issue a solicitation to help bring on some of the additional megawatts by July of next year. We continue to see a lot of load growth in our regions around data centers. There's also some hydrogen hubs that have been awarded grants from the federal government in our territories. We also continue to see some generation retirements PJM recently announced retirement of a Wagner unit -- large Wagner unit in BGE's territory. So there's a lot of different opportunities that we're looking at out there to continue to, again, for our customers and for public policy goals continue to invest in transmission.
David Arcaro:
Excellent. That's really helpful. And I guess as you think about some of this incremental upside CapEx, it sounds like some of which would hit the current plan, but then also looking ahead to the next 5-year CapEx plan, how do you think about financing the next year of kind of higher CapEx growth and rate base growth, specifically thinking about how you're thinking about equity needs from here?
Jeanne Jones:
Yes, it's Jeanne. I think it's how we've always thought about it. We rolled out the $31 billion on our last call. We talked about financing in a balanced approach with internal cash flows and a mix of debt and equity. And so I think to the extent we continue to see more and more work, which we know there will be. We'll finance it in a way that maintains that cushion on the balance sheet that we target, but also ensures that we meet our 6% to 8% earnings growth.
Operator:
One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Paul Zimbardo from Bank of America.
Paul Zimbardo:
And thank you for laying out all those transmission opportunities. Just as we think about the roll forward, not the current plan, you've been very clear, but the roll forward with these incremental opportunities, is there a good way to think about financing those incremental CapEx? Is it kind of like a 50-50 mix? Or should we be thinking of something different?
Jeanne Jones:
Yes. I think as I mentioned with David's earlier question, we'll do it in a balanced way. I think we've got a lot that we're pulling together here. We've got some really exciting incremental transmission opportunities. We have incremental investments from the new rate cases that we've been filing. So we're going to pull all that together as we always do in the fourth quarter and give you a full update when all of that is final. We should have some more information again at the end of the year by the corporate alternative minimum tax. We'll embed any additional cost savings that we're finding as we continue to get further out of separation. So we'll -- as I mentioned, we'll fund any new incremental capital with a mix of internal cash flows reinvesting back into the business that and to the extent necessary do what we need to do to make sure we maintain that cushion on the balance sheet but always also hit our earnings target of 6% to 8%. So we'll do it in that balance, thoughtful way.
Paul Zimbardo:
Okay. Understood. And then shifting topics a little bit. Do you have an estimate for what the Illinois ComEd customer bill CAGR is like the next 5 years -- for your rate case and then I know there's the carbon mitigation credit that rolls off. So just curious how the bill trajectory is.
Jeanne Jones:
Yes. On the ask, I believe it was just -- somewhere between 4% and 5% on the bill CAGR that was on ask call. And then the second part of your question was -- what was the second part on the -- as the CMCs roll off?
Paul Zimbardo:
Yes. Just overall, like, again, you're only part of the bill, like what an overall ComEd customer bill trajectory looks like over the next 5 years?
Jeanne Jones:
Yes. Over the next 5 -- again, on the rate case ask, it was, I think, around 4.5%, 5%.
Calvin Butler:
But it's important to note, Paul, that ComEd starts below the national average in terms of overall rates. So as I like to think of the headroom within that utility to invest and move the state forward exists. One, because of the carbon mitigation credits, but also because they start from a position of strength and having some of the lowest rates in the country. I think it's roughly 23% below large city national average. That's where ComEd's in
Operator:
Our last question -- one moment for our next question. Our last question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet from JPMorgan Securities, LLC.
Aidan Kelly:
It is actually Aidan Kelly on for Jeremy. Just one quick question going back to ComEd. Curious how do you reconcile the differences between the ALJ's 9.28% ROE and staff's 8.91% ROE as well as the proposed equity ratio? And then could you just talk more about where the ultimate return on pension assets debate stands?
Calvin Butler:
Yes. I would tell you that, as we talked about, I'll first start with 1 step, and this is just another step in the process, as Gil laid out, coming off the world series, I think we're in the sixth inning, right? We're in the sixth inning of a long game. And that's just -- it's 1 step. Staff was one, and you saw they came in at 8.9%, talking about the formula rate, and then we get the ALJ, we were able to respond, then we get the ALJ's ruling of 9.28, so we will continue to respond to the evidence as presented and present additional data for this commission to work with. And that includes not only ROE, that includes return on pension assets. As I talked about in my statement, it warrants a return, and we have even come to an agreement with the Attorney General of Illinois, where a minimal getting a debt return. And so we continue to move forward and present the why. And I think that's the powerful part of this, Jeremy, is that when we can articulate the why and frame how it's beneficial for all customers and moving -- having a productive and efficient company that's moving the state's goals, we'll get there. So to get into the details of this -- of any other piece of this early in the process, I think we'd be inserting ourselves deeper before the full commission has a chance to hear the evidence. As Gil has laid out, we have when our next filing deal that we're presenting to them. The brief on exceptions will be on November 8, November 8. And we'll lay it out all fully Jeremy, on November 8 as to the what and the why.
Aidan Kelly:
Appreciate the color there. And then just 1 quick question unrelated on the $425 million equity, would you consider ATM or follow-on there?
Jeanne Jones:
We have $1 billion ATM in place. And so we can always just leverage that in kind of dollar cost average in as needed.
Operator:
I would now like to turn the conference back to Calvin Butler, President and CEO, for closing remarks.
Calvin Butler:
CJ, as always, thank you very much, and thank you to everyone for joining us today. We look forward to seeing many of you at the EEI Financial Conference in a week. Jeanne and the team and I, we're looking forward to just engaging with you in a more robust and deep manner at that conference. And with that, that concludes our call. Thank you very much. Have a great day.
Operator:
Thanks to all our participants for joining us today. This concludes our presentation. You may now disconnect. Have a good day.
Operator:
Hello and welcome to Exelon’s Second Quarter Earnings Call. My name is Gigi and I’ll be your event specialist today. [Operator Instructions] It is now my pleasure to turn today’s program over to Andy Plenge, Vice President of Investor Relations. The floor is yours.
Andy Plenge:
Thank you, Gigi and good morning everyone. We are pleased to have you with us for our 2023 second quarter earnings call. Leading the call today are Calvin Butler, Exelon’s President and Chief Executive Officer and Jeanne Jones, Exelon’s Chief Financial Officer. Other members of Exelon senior management team are also with us today and they will be available to answer your questions following our prepared remarks. Today’s presentation, along with our earnings release and other financial information can be found in the Investor Relations section of Exelon’s website. We would also like to remind you that today’s presentation and the associated earnings release materials contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. You can find the cautionary statements on these risks on Slide 2 of today’s presentation or in our SEC filings. In addition, today’s presentation includes references to adjusted operating earnings and other non-GAAP measures. Reconciliations between these measures and the nearest equivalent GAAP measures can be found in the appendix of our presentation and in our earnings release. It’s now my pleasure to turn the call over to Calvin Butler, Exelon’s President and CEO.
Calvin Butler:
Thank you, Andy. Good morning, everyone and thank you for joining us for our second quarter earnings call. We continue delivering on our plan as expected, which is a testament of all of the work put in by our dedicated employees. But before we get into our results and business updates, I’d like to first start by acknowledging a key milestone. In July, ComEd reached the end of the 3-year term of the deferred prosecution agreement with the Department of Justice. At the court status hearing, the government moved to dismiss the charge, noting the company fully complied with the DPA, which the court granted in the hearing. We remain committed at all levels of the company to the highest standards of integrity and ethical behavior and we look forward to building on the trust of our customers as we continue to move forward. In that spirit, I am pleased to welcome Anna Richo to our Board of Directors. Anna is the General Counsel, Chief Compliance Officer and Corporate Secretary for Cargill and she brings highly complementary experience as an attorney and business leader. Her commitment to operational excellence and compliance will provide invaluable oversight. Now turning to the results for the quarter. As you can see on Slide 4, we earned $0.34 per share on a GAAP basis and $0.41 per share on a non-GAAP basis. These results are right in line with what we expected this quarter, and we remain on track to earn within our guidance range of $2.30 to $2.42 per share for 2023. We continue performing operationally at a very high level. Three of our four utilities had best on-record performance in outage frequency and outage duration, which I will touch on more on our next slide. We have also continued to progress through our rate case calendar with 6 active base rate cases underway in Illinois, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey and the District of Columbia. Most recently, on May 16, we filed our second multiyear plan for Pepco Maryland, the climate ready pathway plan. The filing outlines Pepco’s near-term proposal to advance the state’s climate and clean energy goals while taking steps to mitigate the impact of these efforts on customers’ bills. The proposal includes over $150 million of climate solution programs to help Maryland meet its goals in the areas of transportation electrification, building decarbonization, beneficial electrification and distributed energy integration. It also includes a proposed performance incentive mechanism to focus on reliability, greenhouse gas emission reductions and removal of equipment posing health and environmental risk. We look forward to working through the process with stakeholders and the commission staff toward rates effective in the second quarter of 2024. Beyond Pepco Maryland, we have now received intervenor testimony in our BGE and ComEd multiyear rate plans and filed our rebuttals, and additional milestones await us in those cases in August, along with activity for Delmarva Delaware and Atlantic City Electric. The Public Service Commission of the District of Columbia has also set its schedule for the Pepco D.C. multiyear plan. You will hear more from Jeanne about all the work underway to align with our regulatory stakeholders. Now looking past 2023, we’ll also remind you of the guidance we’ve previously provided on our long-term outlook. We expect to be at the midpoint or better of our 2021 to 2025 and 2022 to 2026 6% to 8% annualized earnings growth ranges and to grow the dividend in line with those earnings. Over the next 4 years, we anticipate investing over $31 billion to support the energy transformation, which is what’s driving that growth. And I’ll remind you that we continue finding opportunities to further support the transformation, whether it’s increasing affordability for customers or strengthening the durability of our long-term investment plans. For instance, we have talked about our efforts pursuing grants under the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which support the investment programs we have laid out for the commissions. And we recently announced winning approximately $30 million of grant funding for middle mile broadband investments at BGE and ComEd. Additionally, you may have also seen that PJM recently voted to proceed with transmission upgrades to address reliability challenges associated with the retirement of the brand insurers coal plant in Eastern Maryland with over $850 million of work assigned to our utilities. Now, while most of the incremental spend for that investment occurs beyond our current guidance window, it’s a great illustration of how we continue to have opportunities to strengthen and lengthen our expected rate base growth as the largest pure T&D utility in the United States. Our transmission upgrades ensure customers are able to buy cleaner generation and that they can depend on a reliable, resilient grid to deliver that power. Before I move on to operations, I want to mention that we published our latest Exelon Sustainability Report in mid-July. This is the 12th report in our company’s history. We are incredibly proud of the work our organization puts into ensuring we are leading the energy transformation in an affordable and equitable manner. Our purpose, powering a cleaner and brighter future for our customers and communities, really shines through that report. And the progress we continue to make in fulfilling that purpose is meaningful. Here are a few examples. We have connected over 200,000 customers with over 3 gigawatts of renewable energy resources, a 16% increase over 2021. We saved close to 25 million megawatt hours in 2022 with our award-winning energy efficiency programs, a 9% increase that avoided 9.5 million metric tons of greenhouse gases and saved customers over $30 million at our average retail rate. Our support for diverse suppliers is now up more than 56% from 2018 levels, having spent $2.9 billion with such suppliers in 2022. Additionally, 62% of our $7.5 billion total supplier spend is with companies in the communities we serve. Our annual sustainability report illustrates all the ways in which our more than 19,000 employees ensure our communities greatly benefit from the work we are doing to support their energy transformation goals. Turning to Slide 5. I’ll provide an update on our operating performance for the first half of the year. As it pertains to reliability, we continue setting the bar for performance. All 4 utilities operated in at least the top quartile, and ComEd, PECO and PHI achieved best on record outage frequency performance. That makes it the second quarter in a row for ComEd and PHI for best on record performance. Those 3 utilities also happen to achieve best on record system outage duration performance, and BGE continues to operate in the top quartile. Their performance illustrates that the investments we are making in the grid provide the footing for this operational excellence. And then it is up to our employees to rise to the challenge of keeping customers online or getting them back online as quickly as possible when outages do occur. Now that job is getting harder to do with storms growing more frequent and severe. But it’s increasingly important to do as society depends more and more on electricity. Nationally, we expect to see 50% annual growth in electric cars and 12% annual growth in data centers. And ComEd particularly, is already seeing sizable opportunity in data centers. The data center growth will only strengthen as industries increasingly rely on cloud services and AI. As the nation’s largest T&D company, we must rise to the challenge of meeting these incremental demands on the grid. This operational performance was matched on the gas side, with all 3 utilities continuing to perform at top decile levels for gas odor response. Our customer satisfaction scores remain in line with those reported in our first quarter call. Our utilities are performing in the second quartile versus the 2021 benchmark when costs across the board were lower, pandemic relief had not yet rolled off and customers had not yet been impacted by the escalating interest rates and commodity prices. We are working every day to ensure customers are aware of the options they have to manage their costs, and we have seen increased engagement by our customers through these efforts. In fact, ComEd announced just 2 weeks ago that it won several recognitions in the 20th Annual Best Practices awards by Chartwell. These annual Chartwell awards recognize excellence among electric and gas utilities with respect to customer-oriented projects, programs and service initiatives. One of these awards included recognition for ComEd’s community energy assistance ambassador program. This program originally launched in 2020 in response to the economic impact of the pandemic. It was designed with a community-based organization to increase education and access to financial assistance options that can help income eligible customers pay their electric bills while creating local employment opportunities for the same vulnerable population. But it is a constant reminder of the importance of focusing on value for our customers as well as affordability, and we are continuously seeking to reduce our own operating costs in addition to pursuing the customer-focused initiatives we have discussed. I will conclude by discussing our safety performance, where we lost ground at 3 of our 4 utilities. Ensuring our employees and contractors operate in a safe environment is of paramount importance. Lower performance this quarter largely resulted from low-impact OSHA recordables like slips and falls and minor vehicle-related incidents. As a result, each of our operating companies have action plans underway to address areas of needed improvement to ensuring that we are operating at our standards. This includes revisiting our safety plans for the year to ensure they are adequately addressing the issues we have observed year-to-date. Other examples include facility reviews to enhance safety and expanding our simulation-based training to offer more opportunities for employees. We are working hard to drive safety performance to the levels that we expect. I will now turn it over to Jeanne to discuss our financial performance and provide additional color on our regulatory activity in the second quarter. Jeanne?
Jeanne Jones:
Thank you, Calvin, and good morning, everyone. Today, I will cover our second quarter financial update along with the outlook for the second half of 2023, our progress on the 23 rate case schedule, and I’ll also highlight an ongoing project that exemplifies our commitment to delivering sustainable value as the premier T&D energy company by modernizing critical infrastructure in the Philadelphia area. Starting on Slide 6, we show our quarter-over-quarter adjusted operating earnings. As Calvin mentioned, Exelon earned $0.41 per share in the second quarter of 2023 versus $0.44 in the second quarter of 2022, reflecting lower results of $0.03 per share over the same period. Results of $0.41 in the second quarter were right in line with the expectations provided in the prior earnings call. Earnings are lower in the second quarter relative to the same period last year, driven primarily by $0.04 of higher interest expense due to the rise in interest rates and higher levels of debt at the holding company and at some of our utilities as well as $0.03 of unfavorable weather at PECO. This was partially offset by $0.03 of higher distribution and transmission rates associated with incremental investments net of depreciation as well as a $0.01 of carrying costs related to the carbon mitigation credit balance at ComEd. Despite another quarter of mild weather impacting our non-decoupled jurisdictions, we delivered earnings results exactly where we said. Through the first half of 2023, operating earnings are $1.11 per share, reflecting 47% of the projected full year earnings. This is in line with how we performed through the first half of 2022. Looking ahead to next quarter, we expect a relative EPS contribution in the third quarter to be approximately 28% of the midpoint of our projected 2023 operating earnings guidance range. Recall that Q3 2022 saw strong growth from $0.04 of higher rates and effect with PECO’s electric rate case in year one of its current rate cycle as well as $0.03 of realized 30-year treasury rate uplift on ComEd’s formula rate distribution ROE and another $0.03 of distribution formula rate timing at ComEd. While the fundamentals underpinning the earnings remaining this year, we expect third quarter ‘23 results to be lower. Net distribution and transmission growth will be offset by higher interest and we also expect some timing of O&M and taxes. For the fourth quarter of ‘23, we expect year-over-year earnings growth to benefit from the absence of proactive derisking that occurred in the fourth quarter of ‘22, the expected reversal of the O&M and tax timing and the anticipated onetime impact of BGE’s reconciliation for the ‘21 and ‘22 under recovery of its first multiyear plan. As we do not receive the final order on the reconciliation for BGE until December of ‘23, we cannot record BGE’s earnings associated with the reconciliation until that time. In line with discussion on the first quarter earnings call, we expect the $0.07 of unfavorable weather experienced year-to-date to be offset with the combination of O&M levers across the platform, favorable depreciation at PECO and the full year earnings impact of the carrying costs associated with the CMC regulatory asset balance. On a full year basis, we continue to reaffirm our 2023 EPS guidance range of $2.30 to $2.42 per share. Through a continued increase in rate base as we deploy capital for the benefit of our customers and strong cost control across the platform, we remain on track to deliver earnings at the midpoint or better of our guidance range. With several months of weather and storm exposure remaining, you can expect we will manage utility work plans to deliver earnings within expectations. Lastly, we are reaffirming the fully regulated operating EPS compounded annual growth target of 68% from 2021’s and 2022 guidance midpoint through 2025 and 2026, respectively, with the expectation to be at the midpoint or better of that growth range. Turning to Slide 7. As Calvin mentioned, there have been some important developments on the regulatory front. Since the last earnings call, there was one new rate case filed, so I’ll provide a status update on each of the six current open proceedings, starting with the most recent filing. On May 16, Pepco Maryland submitted its climate ready pathway, a 3-year multiyear plan application to the Maryland Public Service Commission. Pepco is requesting a $213.6 million revenue increase over the April 2024 and to December 2027 period, inclusive of a proposed 9-month extension reflecting an ROE of 10.5%. The filing outlines investments the company expects to make to support a climate-ready grid and enable cleaner energy programs and technologies that support Maryland’s goal to reach net zero emissions by 2045. As an example of the $150 million of climate solution programs that Calvin mentioned are included in Pepco’s proposed plan, more than half are dedicated to incentive for approximately 10,000 equipment electrification conversions for customers transitioning to cleaner technologies like heat pumps in the building sector. Another key category of spend is dedicated to enhancing reliability, resiliency and grid security through the installation of more modernized equipment that automatically detect system issues, reinforces the grid against more severe weather and protects the grid from potential physical or cyber threats. Overall, these investments are anticipated to inject more than $1.42 billion into the local economy and support more than 11,000 full-time jobs. For the last 3 years, spanning 2020 to 2022, Pepco has reported the best reliability performance of any electric distribution utility in the state of Maryland, a true testament to the company’s commitment of powering a cleaner and brighter future for its customers and communities. Equally as important as reliability, Pepco is focused on keeping affordability front and center for our customers. The multiyear plan includes the acceleration of tax benefits to serve as a bill offset as well as efforts to increase participation in energy assistance and energy efficiency programs, which in 2022 alone provided approximately $23 million to Pepco Maryland customers. An order is expected by June of 2024. Let me also remind you of the other electric distribution rate cases in progress. First, Delmarva Power Delaware has revised a revenue request for a $41.8 million increase based on an updated test period in the electric rate case and, as permitted by Delaware law, implemented full proposed rates on July 15 subject to refund. A decision is expected in the second quarter of 2024. Similarly, ACE revised their revenue request for a $93.6 million increase based on an updated test period, with the final order expected in the first quarter of ‘24. Additionally, after an 8-month receiving, the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities approved a 4-year capital tracker at ACE called Powering the Future, which accelerates the portfolio of projects totaling $93 million designed to enhance reliability and resiliency for customers, advance New Jersey’s energy master plan goals and sustained economic growth in the region. Next, ComEd and BGE surpassed two key milestones in their multiyear plan rate cases, having received intervener testimony and filed their rebutals to support the key elements of the company’s initial proposals earlier this year. As discussed on prior earnings calls, both plans outline the investments needed to provide essential service to customers while meeting the clean energy and equity goals of their respective states. In both the ComEd and BGE multiyear plan rate cases, evidentiary hearings are scheduled to begin in late August with briefs to follow before final orders are expected in December. Lastly, Pepco received a procedural schedule from the Public Service Commission of the District of Columbia in its second multiyear rate plan filing. Upcoming milestones include intervenor testimony expected to be filed by the DC Public Service Commission staff on October 16 and evidentiary hearing set to begin in January of 2024 with final briefs in March of 24. Relationships across our jurisdictions remain constructive, and we are working together with our regulators, states and communities through every step of the process to reach our shared goals. As Calvin mentioned, by next year, we expect our resolution on all four of the ongoing multiyear rate plans in Illinois, Maryland and D.C. and a clear path forward to supporting clean energy and climate goals in an affordable and equitable manner. More details on the rate cases can be found on Slides 20 through 26 of the appendix. Moving to Slide 8. During the second quarter, we continued to invest capital for the benefit of our customers and are on track to meet our $7.2 billion guidance for 2023. These investments in energy infrastructure are vital to maintaining the high standard of service that we have in serving our customers while preparing the grid for the clean energy transformation and increasing levels of electrification. Today, I’ll talk about how PECO is partnering with the community to build a new 69-13kV substation in Philadelphia at the Civic Terminal Yard and neighboring property. PECO’s commitment to building for the new civic substation began in 2019. This $130 million project includes installation of insulated switchgear and modifications to 4 69-kV and transmission lines into civic substations that will allow for the retirement of 2 69-kV transmission lines currently running under the [indiscernible]. The new substation is expected to increase distribution and transmission reliability through the reconfiguration of the lines and increased flood resiliency in the low-lying areas surrounding the substations, where access has been restricted in the past following heavy thunderstorms. It will also enable PECO to relieve low constraints, supply additional capacity to the University City area and better serve critical customers on the west side of the river. Once it’s fully energized, which is expected by the second quarter of ‘24, the Civic substation will be PECO’s newest and most modern insulated substation. While traditional open-air substation construction would have required 5 to 7 acres of land, the upgraded electrical that meant associated with the insulated substation allows PECO to build on less than a 2-acre plot of land. That represents a 60% to 70% reduction in required land use. Since project inception, PECO has partnered with its customers, government agencies and other local utilities to ensure construction of the Civic substation has a minimal impact to the city of Philadelphia, the surrounding customers and on the environment, protecting the nearby waterway and riverbank. With vital customers in the area such as the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, the University of Pennsylvania Hospital and the Philadelphia Veteran Affairs Medical Center, operational excellence is imperative. As an Exelon utility, PECO is ready to deliver it. Turning to Slide 9. I will conclude with a review of our balance sheet activity. As a reminder, we continue to project 100 to 200 basis points of cushion on average over our guidance period for our consolidated corporate credit metrics above S&P and Moody’s downgrade thresholds of 12%, demonstrating our commitment to maintaining a strong balance sheet. If the corporate alternative minimum tax is not mitigated through an inclusion of repairs in its calculation, we anticipate being at 100 basis points or the lower end of that range. We continue to await specific guidance on the corporate alternative minimum tax implementation and are hopeful to have resolution by year-end. In the meantime, the Department of Treasury issued a notice granting deferral of estimated tax payments associated with the corporate alternative minimum tax until 2024, which points to the appreciation that more guidance is required for implementation. From a financing perspective, we successfully raised nearly $1.3 billion for BGE and PECO in the second quarter, which completes all of our planned debt financing needs for 2023. The strong investor demand we continue to see for our debt offerings is supported by the strength of our balance sheet and by the low-risk attributes of our platform. In line with the last earnings call, there has been no change in our guidance to issue $425 million of equity at the holding company by ‘25. We will continue to update you as we make progress on the plan. Thank you. And I’ll now turn the call back to Calvin for his closing remarks.
Calvin Butler:
Thank you, Jeanne. I will once again remind the investment community of what we’re working to accomplish in 2023. We take great pride in our operational excellence, which our employees dedicate themselves to daily. Summer is when we see some of the most severe weather activity, and our teams embrace the challenge to get customers back online quickly and safely. As we proceed with our work of supporting the energy transformation in our ongoing rate cases, we are very focused on listening to our stakeholders. We want to ensure that we are delivering the right investment plans and the right services to support meeting their energy transformation and climate goals in an affordable and equitable manner. After this year, much of our path forward for the next several years will be established and clear. The team also understands it must deliver on our financial priorities and guidance. Efficiently investing $7.2 billion of capital and earning ROEs in the 9% to 10% range will support meeting our 2023 earnings guidance range of $2.30 to $2.42 per share and keeping our balance sheet strong. And finally, we’re continuing to look for innovative ways to support our customers and communities end-to-end throughout our business. In partnership with the Exelon Foundation, we are looking to place our next round of investments in the $20 million climate change investment initiative fund or 2c2i, an innovative way to advance solutions to the challenges brought by climate change, while improving the quality of life for residents of our cities. For this year, five companies were selected to receive investments, spanning areas like software analytics to track air quality, non-recyclable plastic reuse and novel EV charging solutions. Every day, we’re reminded that the energy transformation is happening, and we have to be a vital role in it. And we have a talented team that’s incredibly excited to play that role. We recently announced that Colette Honorable will be joining us as our Executive Vice President of Public Policy and Chief External Affairs Officer, as a renowned energy policy leader who brings expertise in areas like clean energy transformation and equable ratemaking, she will be an invaluable addition to our team. And she’ll help us build on the strong foundation we already have in place, built by the team that got us here. In particular, I want to recognize Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of our business services company, Bridget Reidy who is retiring in September and played an integral role in shaping our organizational commitment to excellence. She also made incredible strides in diversity, equity and inclusion across the wide variety of corporate support groups that she led like IT and supply. Thank you, Bridget, for your leadership. Our team’s commitment to leading the energy transformation is what makes us the premier transmission and distribution utility, one that lives by its values, supports its communities and offers a uniquely strong expected total shareholder return of 9% to 11%. Thank you, as always, for your interest. I’ll now turn it to Gigi for your questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of David Arcaro from Morgan Stanley.
David Arcaro:
Hey, good morning. Thanks so much for taking my questions.
Calvin Butler:
David, good morning.
David Arcaro:
Let’s see, wondering if you could speak to the comment and BGE rate cases and how these have progressed so far relative to your expectations? Just when you look at the key intervener testimony that we’ve gotten so far, like staff in both cases, how have these shaped up overall in terms of the focus areas versus what you had expected?
Calvin Butler:
Yes, David, thank you. This is Calvin. I would tell you that they are proceeding as planned. And the teams have provided their responses, and as Jeanne mentioned, we’re going through the process. But we have with us both Gil Quiniones, President and CEO of ComEd; and Carim Khouzami, President and CEO of BGE, who can – I will ask them to just kind of take your time and walk you through some of the highlights of each and what you can expect moving forward. I’ll start with Gil of ComEd.
Gil Quiniones:
Yes. This is Gil from ComEd. The ICC staff and interveners in the aggregate did not waver from their initial positions filed in their direct testimony in May. They maintained their position in ROE and the pension asset. Their challenges on capital center on certain IT projects, our fiber and proposed private LTE communications network upgrades and systematic and programmatic spending. The rate case process still playing out, as Calvin mentioned, and we will continue to make our case for those capital investments. We continue to have regular meetings with staff and interveners to provide additional information, answer any of their questions and provide clarification.
Calvin Butler:
Carim?
Carim Khouzami:
Good morning. This is Carim Khouzami from BGE. As Calvin mentioned, the case is proceeding as expected. The staff has come in with a proposal of about 70% of our ask. As expected, some of the areas of debate surround ROE investments in our gas system and some building electrification programs that BG proposed for the first time to help the state meet its climate change goals. One of the things to point out, as you know, reconciliations of the first time it is being done in Maryland in a multiyear plan. Both staff and OPC and other intervening parties suggested about 90% of our requests. So again, that is proceeding well. So all in all, going well. As Calvin and Jeanne mentioned, we have more hearings at the end of August, early September with the final order expected in mid-December.
Calvin Butler:
And David, I would just add to that, both plans were built on helping the states meet their environmental and climate goals as well as economic development and job creation opportunities. So the stakeholder process, I don’t want to underrepresent because both companies have been very engaged in that process and meeting with all stakeholders. So again, proceeding, it’s a process that will play itself out. But we expect orders for both companies by the end of the year.
David Arcaro:
That’s really helpful color. Thanks for all that. And appreciating that there are new commissioners in both states, do you see an opportunity for settling on any issues, partial settlement, full settlement? Or is the expectation and strategy just kind of see this through kind of a fully litigated case more likely?
Calvin Butler:
No, great question, David. We expect to see them both fully through and recognizing that, as Carim mentioned, first time for the reconciliation process in Maryland. And it’s the next 3 years, we will see it through and let it play out. And for Gil, moving from the formula rate to a 4-year multiyear plan, it’s important that everyone feels that they have had a chance to voice their opinions and that stakeholder process is critical to that. So we do see it playing out all the way to the end of the year.
David Arcaro:
Got it. Okay, great. Thanks very much.
Calvin Butler:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of James Kennedy from Guggenheim Partners.
Calvin Butler:
Good morning, James.
James Kennedy:
Hi, guys. Good morning. How it going?
Calvin Butler:
Good.
James Kennedy:
So I guess I’ll start with the transmission announcement this morning, the $870 million for brand insurers. Is the portion that falls in the current plan, purely incremental? And secondly, any color on the potential quantum of other opportunities like these as we start to see other retirements in CMC and BGE?
Calvin Butler:
Thank you, James. First off, it is all additive to the current plan. We do not have any of that, as we’ve conveyed to you previously, we were never going to put anything that we were striving to get until we want it. So that’s important. I have with us today David Velazquez, our EVP of Operations, to provide additional oversight or insight into this because David oversees our transmission strategy across Exelon. So David?
David Velazquez:
Yes. Thank you, Calvin. And James, thanks for the question. Besides the brands insurers transmission reinforcements that are needed, you may be aware that PJM also has an open – what they call an open window to help transmission reinforcements needed for additional load growth in the Dominion territory. That is currently open. We have submitted four different proposals in that open window range from, I will say, smaller enhancements in the $300 million range to large projects that helped meet both short and longer term needs that are well over $1 billion. And PJM will provide an initial readout of their recommendations committee meetings in September-October timeframe with an expected decision from the PJM Board in December of this year. In addition to that, there are offshore – their transmission reinforcements needed for offshore wind, both in New Jersey and also in Maryland. And there is legislation in Maryland that requires the PSC by July 1st of next year to make a report back to the legislature and then to issue a solicitation for transmission reinforcements for offshore wind by July of ‘25. So, not just with the brand insurers retirement, but offshore wind, load growth, and again, cannot predict generation retirements, but if they occur, we are ready to do what we need to do to ensure the reliability of the grid.
Calvin Butler:
Thank you, David.
James Kennedy:
Excellent. And then just second question real quick. Can we get an update on the ComEd franchise agreement process?
Calvin Butler:
Yes. Right now, it’s status quo. You can appreciate the team has been very involved in the franchise. And with the new Mayor coming in line, he is assembling his team. Gil and the ComEd team have been working very closely with him on several issues. And really, what we are talking about is that we had come to an agreement with the livelihood [ph] administration earlier this year, as you know, on that franchise. And the parameters of that proposal, we have discussed with you on previous calls. But at this time, the Mayor and I think the team is looking at those provisions and trying to make it his own, this administration’s own. Gil, would you have anything else you would like to add there?
Gil Quiniones:
The only thing I want to add, Calvin, is that we have had initial conversations with them, and they had informed us when they are ready, we will engage and restart our negotiations for a new franchise in Chicago. But in the meantime, our existing franchise agreement continues.
Calvin Butler:
And that’s very important for us. And in addition, I just want to recognize that Gil has been partnering with them. He was just recently named to the Environmental Justice Transition Subcommittee for this Mayor. So, the team has plugged in with the administration, and more of why that’s important is they are understanding what their priorities are as a new administration. And I think that will play directly into the new franchise agreement.
James Kennedy:
Wonderful. Thanks guys.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Paul Zimbardo from Bank of America.
Calvin Butler:
Hi Paul.
Paul Zimbardo:
Hi. Good morning team. Thank you for the time.
Calvin Butler:
Good morning.
Paul Zimbardo:
First, I just wanted to get a little bit more clarity. If you could briefly comment on that SEC matter that you disclosed in the earnings results that you just out, does this fully resolve that legacy SEC investigation?
Jeanne Jones:
Hey, good morning Paul, it’s Jeanne. So, the SEC investigation is still ongoing, but we did reach a point where a loss contingency was probable. So, we did book that. You can see it’s treated similarly to how we had treated the initial DPA amount. It’s a non-operating one-time nonrecurring item that is in non-operating earnings. So, it’s continuing, but it is related to the investigation that began in 2019, so the same original investigation.
Paul Zimbardo:
Okay. Great. Yes. I just wanted to clarify that’s original stream.
Jeanne Jones:
Yes.
Paul Zimbardo:
Okay. Great. And then second, just as we think about the long-term, I know you reaffirmed that expectation midpoint or better 2023 plus, just interest rates keep ticking up stubbornly like 50 basis points even since the last update. Could you discuss some of the areas of offsets, whether cost or otherwise, to kind of combat those higher parent costs? Thanks.
Calvin Butler:
Yes. Well, I will start and then I will turn it over to Jeanne. As you have alluded to is that we are seeing – our customers aren’t immune to the higher-cost commodity prices that are going on across the country. But we have always, as a company, been very aggressive in managing our costs, and that didn’t change upon the separation. Our first and foremost priority was ensuring that our costs didn’t go up as a result of that separation. But let me tell you some of the things that we have done. We have realigned our real estate portfolio, creating flexible work arrangements to rationalize our office footprint. We have automated – we continue to look for ways to automate our work processes and really becoming more efficient and nimble in response to our customers’ needs. And we have centralized our transmission operations to harness best practices on organizational efficiencies. And it’s important to note that over the course of our – since 2016 with the course of our plan, our O&M CAGR has only gone up 1.7%. And the year-over growth is just over 1% in 2023. I say that to you to say that costs continue to be a primary focus of the organization and affordability for our customers. Having said that, we are not done. We are just scratching the surface as a leadership team to really look at how we are going to operate as one Exelon, as a pure transmission and distribution utility company. And we continue to focus on that. So, that is what our focus is on day-in and day-out. Jeanne?
Jeanne Jones:
Yes, I think that’s well said and all of that helps to reduce the O&M and preserve the cash, which minimizes the amount also that we need to finance in terms of our investments, so getting that cash and redeploying it back into the business. The only other thing I will add is on the interest rates, how we do as a whole – at the operating companies, we are stepping into new – sort of new rate cases, so the ability to recover the incremental interest there is important. But at the parent company, we do engage in reinsurance hedging and so being able to lock in with certainty ahead of time heading into a year what that interest expense is, is important. So, we will continue those practices that helped us heading into ‘23, and you can expect us to do that for future issuances as well.
Paul Zimbardo:
Okay. Great. Thank you for the color team. I appreciate it.
Calvin Butler:
Thank you, Paul.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet from JPMorgan Securities, LLC.
Unidentified Analyst:
Hi. Good morning. This is actually David Kelly [ph] on for Jeremy. Just wondering, would you be able to outline your current credit metrics relative to thresholds and plan targets? And how could this ultimately contribute to your 425 remaining equity?
Jeanne Jones:
Sure. It’s Jeanne. So, on the current credit metrics, I think S&P and Moody’s just recently published kind of the prior 12 months, those were at 13%. And as we show in our slides and as I talked about in the script, as we look at our ‘23 through ‘26 time period, we expect to be at that average of 13%. And as a reminder, our downgrade threshold is 12%. And that 12% is afforded to us and we don’t take it lightly, that’s why we have that cushion. But it’s a reflection of our low-risk platform, right, diversity, scale, forward-looking rate mechanisms, 75% decoupled revenues. So, all of that put together, no generation, all of that results in a very low risk profile. But we like to manage at that 100 basis points or 200 basis points above that. So, at the 13%, as the rate agencies just published, we expect to be at that 13%. If we get the corporate alternative minimum tax mitigated, we would be closer the mid-higher, like that 13.5%, 14%. And we are hopeful to know that final regulations or at least preliminary regulations by the end of the year. You asked how that relates to our equity. We have no change in plans related to the 425. So, said another way, if we got the corporate alternative minimum tax alleviated, we would still do that 425. And so you can expect us to do that sometime between now and 2025. The last thing I will say is just as it relates to Moody’s and S&P, there is a little bit of difference in the calculation. S&P will sort of trend at that 13% over that time horizon. Moody’s, however, because of the calculation, there is some cash timing differences. So, we expect to be sort of on the low end in ‘23, ‘24 and then on the higher end in the back end, such that you average 13%. And that’s really driven by some of the formula rate timing at ComEd with the true-up coming for ‘22 and ‘23 coming in, in ‘24 and ‘25. But that’s sort of – that’s why we give you the average because we want to sort of neutralize some of that cash flow timing as well.
Unidentified Analyst:
Appreciate the color. I will leave it there. Thanks.
Calvin Butler:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Carly Davenport from Goldman Sachs.
Carly Davenport:
Hey. Good morning.
Calvin Butler:
Good morning.
Carly Davenport:
Thanks so much for taking the questions. You had mentioned kind of O&M levers to offset mild weather this year. So could you just talk a little bit about how O&M costs have been tracking relative to your expectations? And then what you expect to see for the balance of the year from a rate of change perspective on O&M?
Calvin Butler:
So initially, we have always maintained a philosophy that we will drive O&M costs below the rate of inflation. Now that was over the traditional rate of inflation that we have been experiencing over the last several years, keeping that around 2% to 2.5%. And as I mentioned, we are trending strong and keeping or meeting our objectives of doing so. And that has always been our benchmark. The CEOs who are sitting around the table, we talk about keeping our O&M flat and seeing what levers are driving it to possibly go up, which allows us that flexibility when you have unseasonally warm winters or anything else in PECO or the like, we got 75% of our rate base, our 73% is decoupled. So, a lot of the weather impacts that you are talking about really focus on PECO primarily as the largest utility that’s done. Having said that, we will continue to manage those costs. We never take our foot off the gas in doing so. Jeanne?
Jeanne Jones:
Yes. And as it relates to the weather for ‘23, we had a combination of offsets across the platform, mostly at PECO, BGE and PHI given ComEd has the formula rate true-up on O&M. But across those three operating companies, we saw O&M levers, whether it was taking advantage of labor vacancies, lower T&E and contracting spend. And then in addition to that, PECO had some favorable depreciation. So, the combination of all that was probably around $0.04 of the $0.07 of weather, and then we had the ComEd carrying costs, which were a benefit this year. And it’s a benefit this year relative to last year because we did not have this large reg asset really sort of was built up at the back end of last year. And the interest deposit rate on that was zero for the commission. So, we weren’t getting an interest offset, even though we were incurring interest on that last year. However, now in this year is a benefit both to last year and to guidance because we have the larger reg asset this year. And while we are still incurring the carrying cost on that, the ICC reset the deposit rate at 5% this year. And so relative to guidance, we are now having an offset to that, that wasn’t baked into our plan. So, that’s probably about $0.03 of the $0.07. So, you put all that together, that’s how we are offsetting the $0.07 of weather. And to Calvin’s point, we just continue to focus on what else we can do to drive down those costs. And we are just starting to scratch the surface there.
Carly Davenport:
Got it. That’s helpful. Thank you. And then just on the corporate minimum tax. I know you mentioned expecting to at least get kind of preliminary clarity there by the end of this year. But is there any color that you can share maybe from your discussions around the temperature on the tax repairs deduction and getting the gating factors to that being included?
Jeanne Jones:
I would just say there is – it’s probably not much else to share. There are ongoing discussions. Their stakeholders remain receptive to the discussion and to the technical differences that the utility industry faces in being a very capital-intensive utility and some of the regulatory accounting that will release that capital-intensive nature of our industry. So, receptive discussions ongoing. And I did mention earlier in the script, we did see some guidance come out in June that basically said, hey, if you think you are subject to this tax, you won’t be penalized if you don’t pay it this year. We understand there is more sort of guidance and interpretation needed. And so that was just one other data point. But just ongoing discussions and we remain hopeful that we will have more clarity by the end of the year.
Carly Davenport:
Awesome. Appreciate that. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Durgesh Chopra from Evercore ISI.
Durgesh Chopra:
Hey guys. Good morning. We are close to the hour here. Thanks for giving me time.
Jeanne Jones:
Good morning.
Calvin Butler:
Good morning.
Durgesh Chopra:
Good morning Calvin. Good morning Jeanne. So, I just want to go back to the ComEd rate case real quick. And some of us were expecting an update from staff on the ROE calculation and the output itself. It seems like they are kind of using the same methodology and using rates as of last year. Just how do you see that progressing? Any thoughts there would be appreciated. Thank you.
Jeanne Jones:
Yes. I think as Gil mentioned, still more to come. We are still putting forth a strong argument around our proposed ROE. As you mentioned, they did not change their position. It appears to be sort of this continuation of the formula, which [indiscernible] was clear that the sunset of the formula rate was required. So, our filing offers an ROE that we feel appropriately reflects the actual cost of equity, taking into account the current market conditions. So, we will continue to work through that process. I think there is that data point and then there is the Electric Proxy Group, which is also another data point in the staff testimony. So, we will continue to work through that with them, but no changes as of this point.
Durgesh Chopra:
Got it. Okay. It sounds like we will get an update here before the end of the year. Just switching gears, I have a question on supply chain, and Calvin or anybody else in the room, would love your views there. Just we have seen several media reports on transformer shortages. So, maybe broadly, can you comment, you have a sizable CapEx plan, obviously. But just broadly, can you comment on equipment shortages, labor shortages? And how is that tracking this year versus, let’s say, 12 months ago?
Calvin Butler:
Yes. I would tell you that one of the, I would say, advantage is of being of our scale and our platform is that we are able to leverage the size to not only access our current suppliers, but identify new ones. So, directly to your question, we have not seen a shortage in our transformers. We have not seen a shortage in workforce or any other things that are impacting us executing on this capital plan. Now, what we do pay attention to, as new businesses coming online, our ability to give that online in the timeframe that some of our customers are looking for because that wasn’t part of that initial planned work. So, we stay on top of that and working with our supply organization. But to-date, we are not experiencing those same issues that others made.
Jeanne Jones:
And I think one of the benefits of our profile rate of the $31 billion, as we have talked about before, not one project is greater than 1% of that spend. So, the ability to kind of manage that portfolio in bite sizes to the extent we do experience any issues allows us to be able to stay on track and deliver.
Durgesh Chopra:
Got it. Thanks again guys.
Calvin Butler:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. At this time, I would now like to turn the conference back over to Calvin Butler, Exelon’s President and CEO, for closing remarks.
Calvin Butler:
Gigi, thank you very much. And I just want to always thank you all for joining us today. From the comments made today by Jeanne and I and the leadership team around the table, you see that we are focused on delivering on plan. So, as always, appreciate your interest, and this concludes our call.
Operator:
Thanks to all our participants for joining us today. This concludes our presentation. You may now disconnect. Have a good day.
Operator:
Hello and welcome to Exelon's First Quarter Earnings Call. My name is Gigi and I'll be your event specialist today. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. Please note that today's webcast is being recorded. During the presentation, we'll have a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] It is now my pleasure to turn today's program over to Andy Plenge, Vice President of Investor Relations. The floor is yours.
Andrew Plenge:
Thank you, Gigi. Good morning everyone. We are pleased to have you with us for our 2023 first quarter earnings call. Leading the call today are Calvin Butler, Exelon's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Jeanne Jones, Exelon's Chief Financial Officer. Other members of Exelon's senior management team are also with us today and will be available to answer your questions following our prepared remarks. You may have seen that we issued our earnings release this morning, our release along with the presentation being used for today's can be found in the Investor Relations section of Exelon's website. As a reminder, the earnings release and other matters that we will discuss during today's call, contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. As a result, actual results could differ from our forward-looking statements based on factors and assumptions discussed in today's material and comments made during this call. You can find in today's 8-K and Exelon's other SEC filings for discussions of risk factors and other factors that may cause results to differ from management's projections, forecasts and expectations. In addition, today's presentation includes references to adjusted operating earnings and other non-GAAP measures. Both the appendix of our presentation and our earnings release contain information for reconciliations between the GAAP measures and the nearest equivalent GAAP measures. We've scheduled 45 minutes for today’s call. And it is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Calvin Butler, Exelon's President and CEO.
Calvin Butler:
Thank you, Andy and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us for our first quarter earnings call. Our team of 19,000-plus employees have entered this first full year of operations after the separation, excited to lead the energy transformation as a premier T&D utility, and it shows in our results. We are delivering our plan on course. I'll start on slide four, covering our key messages. We delivered strong year-over-year growth in the first quarter, earning $0.67 per share on a GAAP basis and $0.70 per share on a non-GAAP basis. These results keep us on track to deliver earnings within our guidance range of $2.30 to $2.42 per share for 2023. This is despite the impact of mild weather, which is a testament to the stability offered by the progressive, largely decoupled rate making mechanisms in our jurisdictions. Operationally, we had our best on record reliability performance at all four of our utilities, with ComEd continuing to operate in the top decile. As it pertains to our rate cases, we are well underway in a number of jurisdictions with three new filings initiated since the fourth quarter earnings call. Building a stronger, smarter, resilient, and cleaner grid requires investment, we are engaging with our stakeholders to align on our shared goals and ensure this investment is compensated fairly, as it is integral to our strategy. On February 15th, Atlantic City Electric filed a distribution base rate case with the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities to support investments in infrastructure to maintain safety, reliability, and customer service for our customers. It also includes initial recovery for ACE’s Smart Meter deployment, which brings a host of benefits that Jeanne will highlight shortly. BGE filed its second multi-year plan on February 17th and Pepco DC filed its second MYP on April 13th. Both NYP rate cases incorporate investments that enable the energy transformations guided by jurisdictional policy, whether it be the Climate Solutions Now Act in Maryland or DC's transformative energy policies like the DC Climate Action Plan. Finally, Pepco expects to file its second MYP, our final anticipated base rate filing for the year with the Maryland Public Service Commission later this month. Jeanne will take the time to highlight the next steps across our open rate cases and provide additional details on the regulatory calendar shortly. Now in working through these rate cases, we have several new commissioners expected across our jurisdictions, including new chairs in place or pending in Illinois, Maryland, and Pennsylvania, and new appointees in Illinois and Maryland. We appreciate the service of the outgoing commissioners and are excited to begin working with the newest members on this next phase of the energy transformation. Given this transformation will be measured in decades, it reinforces the importance of building a shared forward-looking understanding of priorities and needs across a variety of stakeholders, which is accomplished through transparency and collaboration. This kind of approach supports continuity through the inevitable evolution in legislative and regulatory bodies over time. Lastly, we continue to reaffirm our existing expectations to be at the midpoint or better of our 2021 to 2025 and 2022 to 2026, 6% to 8% annualized earnings growth ranges, with dividend growth to match underpinned by the investments we are making on behalf of customers and earning an annual consolidated ROE in the 9% to 10% range during that time. Our diverse deconcentrated capital expenditure plan and predictable investment recovery frameworks contribute to the compelling risk adjusted total shareholder return of 9% to 11% that we offer investors between our dividend and earnings growth through 2026. Our results are built on an operating philosophy that relentlessly pursues Exelon, as is highlighted on the next slide. Slide five reviews our operating performance for the start of 2023. Beginning first with reliability, you can see that our utilities continue to operate at industry leading levels, both in terms of outage frequency and outage duration. Both ComEd and PHI achieved best on record outage frequency performance, and all four utilities achieved best on record system outage duration performance. Now consistent with our focus on continually improving operations and customer value, we are now using total system outage time versus average customer outage duration as one of our reliability metrics. This refined metric better ensures we are comprehensively capturing the customer experience on an equitable basis in each of our service territories. This performance is a testament to the hard work that our employees put in each and every day. It also speaks to the effectiveness of the investments and reliability and resiliency that our utilities have made, providing a great foundation as we discuss with our stakeholders the next phase of investments to support their energy transformations. As it pertains to safety, PHI is now operating at top decile levels, and Pepco is in the top quartile, both up from the second quartile last year, while BGE improved the second quartile from third quartile. Now, while we are encouraged by the progress we have made on the safety front in the company, we have a safety focused zero tolerance culture. We are using targeted training at each of our utilities, such as ergonomics awareness training at ComEd, in light of its move out to second quartile to address the areas driving under performance. Gas order response continues its run of top decile performance with all three utilities performing at world class levels in 2023. PHI responded to all gas owners in less than an hour, achieving a perfect rating. Lastly, I want to spend a moment talking about customer satisfaction. As you can see, our four utilities are operating in the second quartile after three out of the four closed out 2022 in top quartile. While each operating company has unique areas to address, there are a few common trends. For instance, the bar for communicating with customers around outages and reliability continues to be raised as our customers increasingly rely on the grid, whether it be working remotely or charging their cars. They need access to information real time. We are excited about the investments we have made and the tools they already have at their disposal, such as mobile apps, and we will continue to invest and enhancements focused on improving communications. Although, another area of focus is new technology through upgrades to our customer care and billing software. These investments will allow us to provide more options to meet customer needs around billing and other services and enhance self-service options for those experiencing slower turnaround times. But perhaps the primary driver of lower customer satisfaction scores relative to the latest available benchmark as of 2021 is one that is not unique to Exelon. While the inflationary environment has shown signs of abetting recently, particularly around energy supply costs that are a pass-through for us, customers have been impacted by increased costs in many aspects of their lives and businesses. That's why we will continue to focus on maintaining more than average rates and overall bill levels. Again, rates in our cities are 23% below the average rate in the largest cities in the United States, and we have connected customers to increasing amounts of assistance as well, totaling over $1 billion the last two years. But we have to continue to articulate the value customers are receiving, and we will maintain focus on managing our own cost to deliver our products as efficiently as possible. We also address bill impacts and our approach to rate cases. Our proposed deferral of 35% of ComEd 2024 rate increase to 2026 is just one example, as is Pepco's DC proposed expansion of the residential aid and arrearage management programs. Ensure we are leading the industry and customer satisfaction remains a top priority for us. Now, Jeanne will provide an update on our financial performance for the first quarter. Jeanne?
Jeanne Jones:
Thank you, Calvin and good morning, everyone. Today I will cover our first quarter financial updates and progress on our 2023 rate case schedule, and I'll also highlight the ways in which our utilities are advancing a smarter, stronger, and cleaner energy grid to better serve all customers. Starting on slide six, we show our quarter-over-quarter adjusted operating earnings plan [ph]. As Calvin mentioned, Exelon earned $0.70 per share in the first quarter of 2023 versus $0.64 in the first quarter of 2022, reflecting growth of $0.06 per share over the same period. Variance in [ph] growth was driven primarily by $0.10 of higher distribution and transmission rates associated with investments and completed rate cases, including the uplift from higher treasury rates, impacting ComEd's distribution hourly. We also benefited $.03 from the rehearsal of other one-time items from 2022, including the discontinued operations adjustment from the separation and the customer refund in Illinois. These items were partially offset by $0.05 of lower earnings due to the sustained warmer than normal temperatures throughout the winter, impacting our non-decoupled jurisdictions in Pennsylvania and Delaware, as well as $0.02 of higher interest expense due to the right interest rates and higher levels of debt at the holding company. There was also $0.70 per share in the first quarter reflects an approximate 30% contribution of the midpoint of our projected 2023 operating earnings guidance range. Historically, we have earned on average 28% of full year earnings in the first quarter. Heading into 2023, we expected Q1 to be a slightly ahead of historical pattern due to the completion of rate cases at PHI and Pepco, rising treasury rates impacting income as are we relative to 2022 and the absence of the one-time item from separation. However, we are also seeing -- we were also seeing the impact of unfavorable weather at Pepco and DPL Delaware. While the weather tempered some of that upside, we still delivered earnings ahead of expectations due to timing at PHI and the recognition of carrying costs related to the carbon mitigation credit balance by ComEd. Looking ahead to next quarter, after factoring in some PHI year-over-year timing items, the relatives EPS contribution in the second quarter is expected to moderate at approximately 17% of the midpoint of our projected full year earnings guidance range. The combination of Q1 and Q2 will result in achieving approximately 47% for projected full year earnings through the first half of 2023. This puts expected results for the first half of 2023 in line with how we performed last year, delivering 48% of our full year earnings in the first half of 2022. On a full year basis, we expect the $0.05 of unfavorable weather experience in the first quarter to be offset with a combination of O&M levers across the platform, favorable depreciation at Pepco, and the full year earnings impact of the carrying cost associated with the carbon mitigation credit regulatory asset balance. With this continued increase in rate base as we deploy capital for the benefit of our customers and our disciplined approach to cost management, we remain on track to deliver expected earned returns at the utilities within our 9% to 10% targeted range by year-end, and affirm our full year operating earnings guidance of $2.30 to $2.42 per share in 2023. In line with past practice, we would not expect to visit protected 2023 guidance until the third quarter and recall, our goal is always to achieve the midpoint or better of that range. Lastly, we are reaffirming the fully regulated operating EPS compounded annual growth target of 68% from 2021 and 2022 guidance midpoint through 2025 and 2026, respectively, with the expectation to be at the midpoint for better of that growth range. Turning to slide seven. As Calvin mentioned, there have been some important developments on the regulatory front since the last earnings call. Let me start by reminding you of two electric distribution rate cases in progress. First, Delmarva Power Delaware has revised a revenue request for a $47.8 million increase based on an updated test period in its electric distribution rate case, both full proposed rates going into effect on July 15th subject to refund. We expect a decision in the second quarter of 2024. Additionally, as discussed previously, ComEd filed its electric distribution multi-year rate plan in January, and we expect intervening testimony due from the Illinois Commerce Commission staff on May 22nd, and evidentiary hearing to be held in late August as the next key milestone. A final order in the ComEd will say [indiscernible] case is expected no later than December 20th. ComEd also filed its 2022 formula rate reconciliation seeking recovery of $247 million in rates effective January 1st, 2024. A key driver at the increase is the impact of US Treasury yields starting to increase from their depressed levels experience during the COVID-19 pandemic, which as you'll recall was reflected in 2022 earnings. First statute in order is expected on the reconciliation by December 17th. Since the last earnings call, there were three numerous cases were filed. First on February 15th, Atlantic City Electric filed a distribution based rate case with the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities seeking a revenue increase of $105 million, reflecting an RV of 10.5%. The filing supports critical investments to enhance service and deliver safe, reliable, and sustainable energy for customers through key programs, including the company's EV Smart Electric Vehicle Program and deployment of the Smart Energy Network Program, which I will highlight later in the presentation. Because of these sustained efforts to modernize the energy grid, eight customers experience the most reliable energy service ever in 2022 with the lowest frequency of electric outages on record. As permitted by New Jersey Law, ACE may implement full proposed rates on November 17th, subject to refund, and a final order is expected in the first quarter of 2024. Next, BGE filed its second multi-year plan with the Maryland Public Service Commission on February 17th, which we provided preview into on our fourth quarter earnings call. Covering the year 2024 through 2026, the multi-year plan details how BGE will invest nearly $2.3 billion annually in the electric grid and natural gas system and nearly $400 million total in electric vehicle and building efficiency programs. These investments will inject nearly $36 billion into the local economy and support an estimated 72,000 jobs as indicated in a study performed by Caldwell [ph] University. Importantly, BGE's infrastructure plan includes more than 300 projects and maintenance programs designed to continue meeting customers' needs, and lay the foundation for the state of Maryland to reach its goal of net-zero emissions by 2045 and order is expected on the proposed plan in December, 2023. As CF noticed, we also requested that the commission provide an order on the proposed reconciliation of 2021 and 2022 costs totaling $77 million of under recovery in parallel with the order on the second multi-year plan. That brings me to slide eight where I want to take a moment to highlight Pepco DC's Climate Ready Pathway multi-year plan that was filed with the Public Service Commission of the District of Columbia on April 13th. Pepco is requesting $190.7 million revenue increase over the 2024 to 2026 period to recover planned capital investments that are intended to enhance the reliability, resiliency, and security of the local energy grid, and to further support the district's goal to be carbon neutral by 2045, one of the most ambitious climate goals in the nation. Specifically, this will be done through investments in equipment and infrastructure that will enable the integration of more renewable energy, such as solar. They will also help customers access and adopt cleaner energy technologies like electric vehicles, and they will allow Pepco to manage load to ensure the electric service customers depend on is available when they need it. As the many maintenance programs included in Pepco's proposed multi-year plan, one involves replacing nearly 24 miles of aging power cables with newer and more modern cables so that all customers experience high quality of service and high reliability. It is the customers and communities that are at the forefront of Pepco's Climate Ready Pathways plan with a central focus on improving the social equity and advancement of affordability of electric service. As part of that commitment, the company is hoping the plan filing proposes several measures to address affordability, including expanding enrollment for the Residential Aid Discount program to include any customer who qualifies for any low income program in the district, as well as enhancing the Arrearage Management Program [ph]. Expansion of these programs would help to further extend the reach of valuable energy assistance, which in 2022 alone provided approximately $21 million to nearly 30,000 Pepco customers in DC or on average $700 per customer. Pepco's multi-year plan comprehensively work to keep service affordable, foster a cleaner energy future, and improve reliability, resiliency, and security through significant investments. This influx of resources directed toward accommodating the next phase of DC's energy transformation is expected to inject more than $580 million in the local economy and support more than 3,800 full-time jobs. An order is requested from the DCPSC by February, 2024, based on a proposed 10-month procedural schedule. All our ongoing rate cases are proceeding in line with expectations and you can find further detail on slide 20 through 24 of the appendix. Moving to slide nine. During the first quarter, we continued to invest capital for the benefit of our customers and are on track to meet our $7.2 billion commitment for 2023. These investments in energy infrastructure are vital to maintaining the high standard of service that we have in serving our customers while also preparing the grid for the clean energy transformation. Today, I would like to talk about how Atlantic City Electric is enhancing the customer experience in South Jersey through the Smart Energy Network program, the last major initial smart meter deployment program planned for Exelon utilities. Smart meters are foundational to a smarter power grid. They enable customers to better understand real-time energy usage in homes and businesses, and they provide enhanced information to make our systems more efficient and resilient. With a broad installation, beginning of September of 2022, ACE employees and their contract partners have been steadily upgrading approximately 30,000 meters per month, and all 568,000 meters are expected to be replaced by mid 2024. When fully installed and operational, the Smart Energy Network is expected to deliver $416 million in operational and customer benefits over the next 15 years. Most notably, these benefits include the ability to restore power faster and more efficiently. And they provide tools that help customers use less energy and save money, as well as a reduced need for estimated billing and the capability to provide more detailed outage information when outages occur. They also allow for better integration of new clean energy technologies, including solar, which has experienced the highest penetration in ACE's territory relative to all of our other jurisdictions at approximately 25% of net peak demand. To put a stand of benefits into perspective on an annual basis, ACE expect to eliminate 134,000 truck loads, reduce major store operations and cost by 10% and save $4.5 million in annual contracted meter reading costs. The Smart Energy Network is a critical step in advancing a cleaner energy future for South Jersey and helping the state meet its climate goals. Leveraging expertise from its sister utilities, ACE is committed to using its collective resources to ensure all customers realize the full benefits of this meter upgrade initiative. This is the power of Exelon platform. As shown [ph] a discussion on our balance sheet on slide 10, as you remember on our last earnings call, we project 100 to 200 basis points of cushion on average over our guidance period for our consolidated corporate credit metrics above S&P and Moody's downgrade thresholds of 12% over the guidance period, demonstrating our commitment to maintaining a strong balance sheet. If the corporate alternative minimum tax was not mitigated through an inclusion of repairs in its calculation, we anticipate being at the lower end of that 13% to 14%. We continue to await guidance from the treasury, which we are optimistic they will issue before year-end. And we remain encouraged by the engagement they have in understanding how its implementation can impact energy infrastructure providers like Exelon. From a financing perspective, we have successfully raised $2.5 billion at corporate and approximately $2 billion for ComEd and the PHI entities. Today we have completed over 80% of our planned 2023 long-term debt financing needs. This positions us well for any unexpected market volatility in the balance of the year. We continue to see strong investor demand for our debt offerings, which is a testament to the strength of our balance sheet and to our value proposition as a premier T&D utility with low risk attributes. To reiterate our equity needs, there has been no change in our guidance to issue $425 million of equity as a holding company by 2025. We'll continue to update you as we make progress on that plan. Thank you, and I'll now turn the call back to Calvin for his closing remarks.
Calvin Butler:
Thank you, Jeanne. Let me conclude our prepared remarks with reminder of our priorities and commitments for 2023 as the premier T&D utility. It starts with operations. Operating safely and reliably is our core mission, and you can count on us to focus on that every hour of every day. Secondly, as you heard from Jeanne, we have a full set of rate case proceedings well underway that will set our path for the next three to four years, given our multi-year plan frameworks. The transformation of our energy system requires a lot of coordination and alignment, and we welcome the opportunities to engage with stakeholders on the most effective and efficient means to meet our jurisdictional goals. And third, we are focused on executing financially. We're looking to deploy $7.2 billion of capital this year, more than ever before, while maintaining earned ROEs in the 9% to 10% range and delivering on our 2023 earnings guidance range of $2.30 to $2.42 per share. We have made great progress on our financing plan for the year, while also laying groundwork for future financing needs, and we continue to focus on ensuring our balance sheet is strong. Last, we continue to focus on maximizing the value we provide our customs, and ensuring we are serving them in an equitable manner. As an example of how we are innovating to support a more affordable energy transformation, I'll point to BGE's recent partnership with the City of Baltimore. Specifically, BGE will share responsibility for improving the City's 700 mile conduit infrastructure, reducing the amount the City paid for maintenance capital improvements, and allowing BGE to take advantage of its contracting and construction efficiencies, all while ensuring a healthy conduit system to provide more reliable and affordable power. And beyond our direct operations, we will continue to support our communities beyond providing cleaner, more reliable energy, such as through our more than 75 workforce development programs across our six utilities. Indeed, investments like ACE's Smart Energy Network that Jeanne highlighted benefit greatly from those programs. In anticipation of this investment program, a six-year, 6.5 million job training program was established in 2018 to educate the workforce needed to fill the energy jobs of the future in New Jersey. 14 of our talented employees deploying the smart meter technology are graduates of that development program established five years ago. And we expect to hire more than 15 additional graduates by the end of June, reinforcing our vision of facilitating an energy transformation that will stretch over generations of thoughtful planning and coordination. We look forward to building on the progress made in these first three months and meeting our commitments in 2023. We are delivering on course. Thank you, and we welcome your questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes to the line of Shar Pourreza from Guggenheim.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Hey, good morning, guys.
Calvin Butler:
Good morning, Shar.
Jeanne Jones:
Good morning.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Good morning. So, hey, guys. Just if we could maybe start with Illinois. I mean, we obviously saw the trial outcome last night. Realize you guys have taken a lot of steps since 2020 to improve, but any sort of high level read-throughs to the regulatory construct at this point, or anything remaining for ComEd from a legal or even judicial standpoint. Thanks.
Calvin Butler:
Yeah. Thank you, Shar. So first from the start, as you know, Shar, we have cooperated fully with the investigations conducted by the government and our regulators. The deferred prosecution agreement signed in 2020 resolved the Justice Department's investigation into ComEd, but we want to be clear that we have done much more than that. We have made substantial changes to our contracting, lobbying and compliance operations to ensure that the conduct that was at issue in the trial does not happen again at all levels from my office and through -- throughout the leaders of the organization and the 6,300 employees who keep the lights on every day in Illinois. We are committed to the highest standards of integrity and ethical behavior for our business. We have the privilege and the responsibility of [technical difficulty] well over 10 million customers, and we do not take that lightly. But I want to have Jeanne spend some time talking about the other issues that have come as a result of this. And then I'm going to ask Gil, CEO of ComEd, to kind of walk through to your question, the regulatory and legislative proceedings as we move forward. Jeanne?
Jeanne Jones:
Yeah. Thanks Calvin. And good morning, Shar. So, as Calvin mentioned, the deferred prosecution agreement, and this resolved our matter with the Department of Justice. But there have been a couple things that we've outlined in our 10-Ks and Qs that were legal matters surrounding the events leading to the DoJ [ph]. And I'll just touch briefly on those. And again, these will all be disclosed when the Q comes out and they continue to be updated and you'll see it when the Q comes out later today. But we did have a security suit derivatives and derivative suits and consumer fraud suits. And then, there was the FCC investigation, so just checking through those. The security suit was filed in 2019, and there's a next court status for that, that's late June. So based on recent development, we have booked a probable loss in this matter of $173 million, but that is expect to be fully recovered by insurance. So there's no earnings or cash impact from that. There are three derivative suits pending, including 1021, and there were a couple new ones filed in April and May of this year. They all assert similar claims and there's no updates from a financial perspective on those. But I would remind you that that one is a little bit different in that any amount recovered were resolved in cash receipt to the company and those types of lawsuits. And then there were three consumer fraud cases filed, two of which have been dismissed, and we just argued our motion to dismiss the remaining case in late April. And then lastly, the FCC investigation continues -- to continue to cooperate fully. But no update on that. And so, that's just kind of a status update, but again, we give kind of a play-by-play the Q for those. And so maybe I'll turn it over to Gil to talk through the multi-year plan.
Gil Quiniones:
Yeah. Our proposed grid modernization plan and multi-year rate plan support in 100% alignment with the goals of the Climate Equitable JOBS Act and the Illinois energy policy -- energy and environmental policy goals of an orderly and equitable energy transition here in our state. It is a product of extensive stakeholder process with multiple parties, parties over the past couple of years. As you know, we filed our proposed rate case in January of this year, and we look forward to continue working with all parties openly and collaboratively. As Jeanne mentioned before, the interveners are scheduled to file their testimony this month. Hearings will be in August and the order in December of this year. So, Shar, we're on course and appreciate that question.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Perfect. And then, just lastly, Maryland, obviously Calvin set a pretty aggressive offshore wind target last month, 8.5 gigs by 2031. As I guess as we look at the plan today, could we see incremental transmission opportunities at Delmarva, I guess put differently? What do you embed in plan at this point? Thanks guys.
Calvin Butler:
So if I can, what you're asking is that from Maryland's offshore legislation that just recently passed, could that have a spillover that's happening along in Delmarva? Is that the question there, Shar?
Shahriar Pourreza:
Perfect. And as we're thinking about transmission opportunities, yes, correct.
Calvin Butler:
Yeah. I think first and foremost, Shar, the legislation does present an opportunity for Exelon to participate in transmission. The amend legislation, as you know, requires that PJM conduct a study of the transmission system and taking a more holistic approach with that. But it will -- what's nice about it, it will prioritize leveraging existing infrastructure, permitting risks and grid challenges, use of open access of collective transmission systems and avoiding any single contingency items. So this all goes to how Exelon can differentiate itself from others. And as you know, the state has a goal of reaching 8,500 megawatts of offshore wind energy capacity by 2031. And I think we are well positioned to be a part of that. And I have David Velazquez next to me who oversees our transmission. Dave, anything to add there?
David Velazquez:
Shar, just to add. Yeah. We do think that there the potential for incremental opportunities on transmission there. We've not included anything in the current plan for opportunities that are there. And the way the legislation reads by the beginning of July in 2025, the JSC or the PSE will direct PJM to issue kind of a competitive transmission solicitation for the transmission that's needed to support the offshore wind.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Terrific. Thank you guys so much. Appreciate it.
Calvin Butler:
Thank you, Shar.
Jeanne Jones:
Thanks Shar.
Operator:
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Paul Zimbardo from Bank of America.
Paul Zimbardo:
Hi. Good morning team. Thank you.
Calvin Butler:
Good morning, Paul.
Paul Zimbardo:
Great. If you could you discuss the O&M savings drivers you mentioned in the script and just at what segments you're expected to realize the offsets for unfavorable weather? I think you said across the platform, which sounds broader than I believe it's PECO and Pepco, where the impacts were from weather.
Jeanne Jones:
Yeah. I'll hit on it. And then Calvin feel free to add too. So when you think about the $0.05, it's a combination of levers. And I'll start with what we did to sort of enter this year in a conservative and substantial matter. So we -- you may remember we had some weather and storm favorability last year and we did some derisking at the end of the year to help us in 2023 and beyond. And so that's helpful heading into the year. Second, if you think about where other volatility lies in interest rate exposure, we've really mitigated that risk by having completed our sole corporate financing in the first quarter. So locking that in, and you can see that in the sensitivities in our exact, we have no exposure really on that. And then as you talked about, right, we do have leverage across the business. It would be more focused on areas that hit the bottom line, but then remember at the corporate entity, dollar saved soldier down to all the areas as well. And so it'll be a combination across the platform. In addition to that, as I mentioned we do see some favorable depreciation at Pepco relative to expectations. And then finally, we had -- if you think about the $0.05 in totality, we had a penny of the favorability from the carbon mitigation credit deposit rate on that reg asset. On a full year basis, that's probably going to be about $0.03. So when you put all that together, pure line of sites offsetting the $0.05 and feeling good about the rest of the year and delivering in the range at midpoint or better.
Paul Zimbardo:
Okay. Excellent. Thank you. And then changing topics. I saw the [technical difficulty] opportunity, could you quantify how much that could be? And just confirming if there's any offset to rate based, those kind of items are factored into the plan. Thank you.
Calvin Butler:
Hey, Shar, you cut out midway through your question. Would you mind repeating that please? I mean, Paul.
Paul Zimbardo:
Sure. I was asking about the IIJ, the Infrastructure and JOBS Act. Just I saw that headline during the quarter. If you could quantify what the opportunity could be for Exelon. And just if there are any offsets to rate based from kind of federal financing, if that's incorporated in the plan today.
Jeanne Jones:
Yeah.
Calvin Butler:
I'll let Jeanne take that and then we'll go from there, please.
Jeanne Jones:
Yeah. Thanks Kelvin.
Paul Zimbardo:
Thank you.
Jeanne Jones:
So the $700 million is what we've applied for, so it's a really competitive process. So it's hard to estimate what portion of that we'll get, but what I can tell you is we haven't factored it in. So if there's -- we're not expecting any meaningful impact to rate base to finance needs, we're reaffirming everything. And then we'll continue to update that -- update you on that as that progresses.
Calvin Butler:
And I would just add Paul, understanding, as we've said before, the IIJA and the IRA create tremendous opportunity for us as Exelon utilities specifically to partner with our jurisdictions and drive this energy transition faster. And it also goes to the affordability factor of what we do and how we do within our jurisdictions. So we're working it hard and we're partnering and looking for all the opportunities to really increase in our investments, but more importantly, partner with our communities in this endeavor.
Paul Zimbardo:
Yes. No, I know you are. Thank you both very much. Appreciate it.
Jeanne Jones:
Thanks Paul.
Operator:
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Steve Fleishman from Wolfe.
Calvin Butler:
Hey, Steve.
Steve Fleishman:
Hey, good morning. Good morning, Calvin. So just on the Illinois, I guess we're going to get the recommendation soon on the multi-year, the new framework. So obviously, things like capital structure and ROEs and I assume rate base are the key variables. Are there any other -- and then I guess maybe incentives, are those kind of the key issues to monitor in the recommendations or any other things that we should be watching for?
Calvin Butler:
Yeah. Thank you. I'm going to let Gil take that in because, he's been intimately involved in the process. Gil?
Gil Quiniones:
I think you've pretty much captured. Those are the items that we anticipate. Parties are going to be to be interested in.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. And then I do -- I think there was a minimum capital structure allowed under the bill. Is that still…
Jeanne Jones:
Yeah. It's kind of like true.
Steve Fleishman:
… to 50%?
Jeanne Jones:
Yeah.
Gil Quiniones:
Harbor at 50%.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. And the -- I guess my other question, the carrying charge or recovery on the CMC deferral, this is just CMC cost that you're not yet recovering in rates that you're earning a carrying charge on?
Jeanne Jones:
That's right. Yeah. It's -- it earns a customer deposit rate, which was zero in 2022 and then was reset at 5% at the end of last year, early part of this year. And so outside relative to expectations for this year. But that reg asset is expected to be collected and wind down by May of 2024. So it's not a future years earnings. But it is helpful this year.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. And then finally on the IRS implementation of IRA and the minimum tax, is there any -- has there been any developments or sense of outcome there? I guess on the -- I guess particularly the repair tax issue or just kind of sitting and waiting?
Jeanne Jones:
Yeah. Same status. So still, about $200 million per year. We -- that's all reflected in our guidance and our -- so from an earnings and a credit metric forecast and we give you kind of the sensitivity of where we'll be if it isn't alleviated and where we'll be, if it is. Still, optimistically get regulations by the end of the year and still ongoing discussions with us EI, the industry and treasury on the repair deduction and in general, how the corporate alternative minimum impact energy providers like Exelon. And some further dialogue recently I would say about why the utility industry is different given the capital intensive nature of our business. And so just ongoing dialects, but no new changes to the assumptions or estimates.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. Great. Thank you.
Jeanne Jones:
Thank you.
Calvin Butler:
Thank you, Steve.
Operator:
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes on the line of David Arcaro from Morgan Stanley.
Calvin Butler:
Morning, Dave.
David Arcaro:
Hey, good morning. Good morning. Thanks so much for taking my question. There's a new chair in Illinois. I was just wondering if you had -- have had any initial dialogue or perspectives that you might offer? And how it might be to work together with the ICC going forward, especially given that it's such a busy regulatory year?
Calvin Butler:
Yeah. David, thank you for the question. I think, as I said in my opening comments, the transition of leadership and commissioners is part of the process, and so we are really engaging with all stakeholders in a very collaborative process to move forward. But directly to your question, the Governor Pritzker did accept the resignation of Chair Solinsky [ph] and has nominated the incoming first Doug Scott, who as you know, used to be the former Chair of the commission and was very instrumental in the drafting and creating of the Climate Equitable and JOBS Act. And there has been communication, but the communications have been around moving the state's goals forward, and we have heard nothing to date that is taking, that are derailing those efforts. And as Gil alluded to earlier Jeanne, we're still expecting a final order on comments for your multi-year plan by December 20th. So also along with the new chair, they're getting a couple of new commissioners and again, that process continues to move forward.
David Arcaro:
Okay. Great. Thanks. And I was also wondering with the ComEd and BGE reconciliations, I was -- I just wanted to check do those -- do there tend to be big swing factors in those regulatory processes, or are they pretty standardized just in terms of what costs fit in and are they smooth recovery processes typically?
Jeanne Jones:
Yeah. So on the -- on ComEd, the reconciliation they filed is for the 2022 -- under the 2022 formula rate. So this is a reconciliation that has been going on for 10 years. So I think that that one is a little bit more straightforward. And as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, part of that is just the cash collection of the true up on the treasury rates under the formula rate. You set the rate based on prior year treasuries and then you can recognize it in earnings, but then you true it up in rates later. So that one's pretty standard in the sense that it's been going on and it's sort of clear. The BGE one though is the first reconciliation under multi-year plan in Maryland. And so this will be the first time we're going through it. But there's a framework there to work through. And so that's -- but that order will come in December of this year as well. And I think it's important for this year, but I think it's really important in terms of kind of what you mentioned, right, setting the precedent going forward so that we know what is recoverable, what's not. And you get into a place where you can say, okay, if there's a variance here, I can put up a receivable or reg asset or conversely, if we do well, we put up a liability and we'll get that back to customers. So I think going through that will be helpful as it has been. We've seen in ComEd, once you get through it the first time is very helpful going forward.
David Arcaro:
Okay. Got it. That's helpful. Thanks so much.
Calvin Butler:
Thank you, Dave.
Operator:
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question will be the last one coming from the line of Jeremy Tonet from JP Morgan Securities LLC.
Calvin Butler:
Good morning, Jeremy.
Jeremy Tonet:
Hi, good morning. Hi. Thanks.
Calvin Butler:
Morning.
Jeremy Tonet:
Just wanted to dial into Maryland, a little bit more if we could. We've seen changes in the commission and there are these kind of policy goals out there. Just wondering, how you see that affecting BGE, both the electric and gas side, or is that kind of offsetting over time or just wondering updated thoughts about the future of gas there and how the impacts Exelon?
Calvin Butler:
Yeah. So great question. And with me, the room, I have Carim Khouzami who's the CEO of BGE. But let me take the initial piece and then I'll turn it over to Carim and see if he has any additional information. So just like Illinois, Jeremy, we're having a transition of a chair of our commission as well as a couple of Governor Moore appointees. Governor Moore has taken a very aggressive position to continue to push decarbonization and transportation electrification throughout the state of Maryland, really rivaling it with California and Illinois and alike and moving forward. Having said that, there is an alignment with the jurisdictional goals of what BGE is doing as well as Pepco Maryl. The gas portfolio within our business is -- we believe it's critical to the long-term decarbonization of the industries as we are going through the process of replacing the gas infrastructure within Maryland. We continue to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in that effort. And we've attacked it as a portfolio approach because reliability of the system and affordability for our customers is critical in our endeavors. So we have communicated that with the state. BGE has been very involved in those conversations, and I'll let Carim just take it a step further if he choose.
Carim Khouzami:
Thank you Calvin, and good morning. I think you hit all good points. One of the key points to highlight is in last year's legislative session, the Climate Solutions Now Act, which set forth state goals for us to achieve as an economy wide, laid out a number of working groups where they would determine what is the right path for Maryland going forward. BGE and the other Maryland utilities are at the table with all the other interested parties, and we're working through those issues now, and that will be concluding at the end of this year with recommendations. As Calvin mentioned, there are a number of ways to get to the state goals. We see the pathway that is the most affordable, reliable, and resilient as being one that still includes gas as part of the infrastructure. And we're working with the groups to kind of talk through what is the right path for Maryland, and we do have confidence that will be part of the future.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. That's very helpful there. And then, just pivoting to results in, just a smaller question overall, but I was hoping you could illuminate a little bit of color on the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations there as far as the change in environmental liabilities and the change in perk audit liability, if just a little bit more color on what those items were.
Calvin Butler:
Sure.
Jeanne Jones:
Yeah. Sure. So on the environmental liabilities, that's a -- the PHI is a legacy issue where we continue to update estimates for remediation of that. So we just slightly increased the reserve there. On the ComEd item, ComEd and on the perk audit had an audit began in 2021. We got draft findings earlier this year. And just based on ongoing discussions, we booked about $15 million of a probable loss. So that's ongoing. But that's kind of the nature of the two. And infrequent unusual as we carver them out from an operating perspective.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. That makes sense. That's helpful. I'll leave it there.
Jeanne Jones:
Thank you.
Calvin Butler:
Thank you, Jeremy.
Operator:
Thank you. At this time…
Calvin Butler:
Is that the last question?
Operator:
Yes, that was the last question. And at this time, I would like to turn the conference back over to Calvin Butler for closing remarks.
End of Q&A:
Calvin Butler:
Thank you, Gigi. And I just want to take a moment to say thank you for joining us today. I appreciate your engagement and all your questions. And with that, it concludes the call. Have a great day.
Operator:
Thanks to all our participants for joining us today. This concludes our presentation. You may now disconnect. Have a good day.
Operator:
Hello and welcome to Exelon's Fourth Quarter Earnings Call. My name is Gigi and I'll be your event specialist today. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. Please note that today's webcast is being recorded. During the presentation, we'll have a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] It is now my pleasure to turn today's program over to Andy Plenge, Vice President of Investor Relations. The floor is yours.
Andy Plenge:
Thank you, Gigi. Good morning everyone and thank you for joining our fourth quarter 2022 earnings conference call. Leading the call today are Calvin Butler, Exelon's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Jeanne Jones, Exelon's Chief Financial Officer. They're joined by other members of Exelon's senior management team, who will be available to answer your questions following our prepared remarks. We issued our earnings release this morning along with the presentation, all of which can be found in the Investor Relations section of Exelon's website. The earnings release and other matters, which we will discuss during today's call, contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ from our forward-looking statements based on factors and assumptions discussed in today's material and comments made during this call. Please refer to today's 8-K and Exelon's other SEC filings for discussions of risk factors and other factors that may cause results to differ from management's projections, forecasts and expectations. Today's presentation also includes references to adjusted operating earnings and other non-GAAP measures. Please refer to the information contained in the appendix of our presentation and our earnings release for reconciliations between the non-GAAP measures and the nearest equivalent GAAP measures. We've scheduled 60 minutes for today’s call. I'll now turn the call over to Calvin Butler, Exelon's President and CEO.
Calvin Butler:
Thank you, Andy, and good morning everyone. I'm excited to be with you for my first earnings call as CEO of Exelon and one that concludes a very successful year for us. When I first joined ComEd in 2008, it was one of two utilities along with PECO under the Exelon umbrella. We recognized that we had an opportunity to take advantage of the power of the Exelon platform in a meaningful way. The company was already known for building world-class operations in the generation business commonly known as our management model. Over the course of the next 14 years, we applied the same principles of best practice sharing and accountability through performance measurement to our energy delivery business. We were building a standard of excellence to deliver improvements in reliability, safety, customer satisfaction and value. I was fortunate and privileged to be part of guiding this evolution first as the lead to ensure the Constellation merger crossed the finish line in 2012, then in my role as CEO of BGE and eventually as CEO of Exelon Utilities and COO of Exelon. In those positions, the leadership teams and I were able to challenge our talented employees to take our utilities to the next level. We sustained and expanded our operational excellence, improved customer satisfaction, enhanced team diversity and improved earned ROEs from mid single digits to our 9% to 10% target first at BGE and then at PHI. And as you'll hear today, 2022 gave us a chance to showcase what we've built, an ability to execute, push continuous improvement, and achieve a balanced outcome for our customers and investors. But as proud as I am about what our team has built, I'm more excited about what lies ahead and I want to layout our vision of who we are and what supports our value proposition. Exelon is the premier T&D company in the industry. Our platform is stable with sound fundamentals both operationally and financially. This platform positions us to support our jurisdictions through the multi-decade energy transition that is just starting. We can do it in a manner that supports affordability and equity while driving consistent stable growth for our shareholders, the type of performance that is a hallmark of a top tier utility. What makes our platform unique? Well, we have an extremely diversified investment plan in size, scope, and location. We have no generation. We have worked with our jurisdictions to operate under forward-looking rate mechanisms that provide value for our customers and predictable results for our investors and almost three quarters of our revenues are decoupled. This leads to a very compelling risk adjusted total return of 9% to 11% built on the foundation of an unmatched platform, operational excellence and strong partnerships with our jurisdictions and communities. The Exelon team has proven its ready to meet the challenge of leading the nation in its energy transformation, powering a cleaner and brighter future for our customers and our communities while creating value for our shareholders. I will now turn to Slide 5 and talk about our key messages for this call. I will start by recapping the strong performance in 2022. We executed right in line with our expectations, reporting operating earnings results of $2.27 per share. That exceeded the midpoint of guidance by $0.02 and represents 8.1% growth off of the 2021 guidance midpoint. We also had best on record operating performance at three of our four utilities. As for our rate case activity, we had four constructive distribution rate case outcomes, including two gas cases and two electric cases. We'll look to continue this progress in 2023 with several important rate cases this year. In January, ComEd filed with the Illinois Commerce Commission its first multiyear rate plan and grid plans under the framework established by the Climate and Equitable Jobs Act. The filing follows 15 stakeholder workshops, reaching more than 1,000 attendees as well as 45 stakeholder presentations. As Illinois progresses towards its decarbonization goals, ComEd is starting from an industry-leading position of strength. In fact, in 2022, ComEd was recognized with the Outstanding System Resiliency Award for U.S. utilities by PA Consulting while also maintaining an average bill that is lower than those in 47 of the 50 states. Beyond the rate case, ComEd and the City of Chicago announced a proposed Chicago franchise agreement and a related energy and equity agreement. Together, these agreements grant ComEd the right to continue providing electric utility services using public ways within Chicago and creates a new non-profit entity to advance energy and energy equity-related projects. These agreements build upon the century-long partnership we have had with the city and demonstrates our alignment around key energy and sustainability goals. Pending approval by the city and Exelon Board, ComEd continues to operate in the city under the prior franchise agreement. And later this month, BGE will be filing its second multiyear plan for its electric and gas businesses with Pepco D.C. and Pepco Maryland following later in the first half of the year. Like Illinois, Maryland's Climate Solutions Now Act has set aggressive climate and decarbonization targets, creating an environment where utility action and investment is a key priority and for which multiyear planned frameworks are particularly well suited. Jeanne will cover the rate cases and other regulatory activity in more detail shortly. As to our projected outlook, we have rolled forward our disclosures after adding a year to our guidance window. We are reaffirming our 2021 to 2025 target of 6% to 8% annualized earnings growth with the expectation that we will reach midpoint or better of that compounded annual growth rate. We are also initiating an identical target for 2022 through 2026 where we expect to deliver 6% to 8% annualized earnings growth over the four-year horizon with the same expectation that we will reach midpoint or better of that compounded annual growth rate by 2026. This is driven by the almost 8% rate base growth from 2022 through 2026, underpinned by deploying $31 billion of capital over 2023 to 2026. That's over $2 billion more than the prior four-year period. As we balance the required progress on the energy transition with customer affordability, we continue to challenge ourselves to deliver maximum customer value at the lowest cost possible. We continue to expect some variability in our growth rates from year-to-year, due to our regulatory calendar, but we have maintained the transparency provided in the third quarter around our path to achieving our CAGR commitment. For 2023, we are initiating our projected operating earnings guidance at $2.30 to $2.42 per share, with the midpoint that implies 5% growth off the midpoint of our 2022 guidance. Being slightly below the annualized earnings growth range is in line with the direction we provided on our third quarter call, but we do expect 2023 to be the exception. All other years are expected to grow within the range of 6% to 8%, if not above it. We remain confident in the earnings power of our business. We expect an annualized dividend of $1.44 per share in 2023, reflecting approximately 7% growth off of our $1.35 dividend per share in 2022. Jeanne will cover more of the specifics of our financial outlook. Moving to Slide 6, I want to spend a moment recognizing last year's accomplishments. Demonstrating the type of stable, predictable performance that our customers and shareholders expect us to deliver. First, we completed the separation from Constellation, which by any measure was a success and execute it in less than a year after our Board's decision to proceed. We did not miss a beat operationally, despite this separation. We invested more capital for the benefit of our customers than ever, while achieving the highest ROE since 2019. We were able to attract and retain a talented and diverse workforce in a difficult labor market, a testament to our culture of engaged and purpose-driven employees. And we didn't lose sight of the importance of supporting our communities through more than just the investments we're making in them. Our employees volunteered more than 126,000 hours and connected our customers to almost $600 million of energy assistance, an increase of over $100 million from 2021. We continued to build upon our history of workforce development, launching the Atlantic City Infrastructure Academy in the fall and graduating our first group of 26 students this month with the skills needed to succeed in careers in the energy industry. We achieved our highest percentage spend ever, 39% or $2.8 billion of total spend with diverse suppliers. We gave $22 million to support schools and students in our markets. These programs include learning energy basics in middle schools and our Exelon Foundation STEM Academy that inspires high school girls to pursue careers in the energy field. And we are doing our part to create a cleaner and brighter future for our customers, making good progress on our path to clean with 112 miles of gas pipe main replacement and 12% of our vehicle fleet now electrified. These are just a few examples of the type of work we do that has led to us being named to the Dow Jones Sustainability Index for 17 years running. Last, we delivered on our earnings commitment for the year. Ultimately, 2022 was about establishing and beginning to prove out the value proposition the new Exelon offers and our team executed well. Before I turn it over to Jeanne, I will review our operating performance for 2022 on Slide 7, which ended as strongly as it began. I'll start with reliability. We were top decile in outage frequency performance at three of our four utilities, and we were top quartile for outage duration across all utilities. Achieving performance like this requires sustained focus and effort across our business. First and foremost, it requires our team showing up 24/7, no matter the time or the conditions. For instance, Winter Storm Elliott struck our BGE service territory on December 23, taking out power to 112,000 customers. Our dedicated teams completed over 1,500 repair jobs in sub-zero temperatures and at times to bring just one or two customers back online to restore power completely without any injuries. And it wasn't just our BGE team. The power of the platform showed up in force with ComEd, PECO, and PHI supporting the restoration efforts. On behalf of the entire leadership team, we want to thank all of our employees on the front lines of storm duty for their dedication. We will not have this track record of excellence without their commitment. Operational excellence also requires smart and prudent investment that's compensated fairly, built around alignment with our jurisdictions on shared goals and priorities. Last year, we invested $7.2 billion of capital, earning that 9.4% ROE I mentioned. The ability to execute on this level of investment with the confidence that we're aligned with our jurisdictions is a key element of our success. We need to perform every day to maintain that trust. On safety, ComEd continues to maintain top quartile performance while we work to get our other three utilities up to our standards. Our efforts to reduce serious injuries have been successful, but we are also focused on implementing safety best practices at our utilities to avoid other incidents that have driven OSHA under performance in 2022. For the year, BGE, ComEd and PECO sustained top quartile customer satisfaction performance. This reflects our continued investment in technology to create a better customer experience, our top quartile reliability and our commitment to an affordable energy transition. And finally, gas odor response continues to be in the top decile across all three utilities, including with BGE completing the year with its best on record performance. We continue to accelerate the modernization and safety enhancements of the gas system while working with our customers and communities to live and work safely with gas. I will now ask Jeanne to review our financial update. Jeanne?
Jeanne Jones:
Thank you, Calvin, and good morning, everyone. I'll start by sharing my own excitement about closing out our first year as the new Exelon. As proud as I am of what we accomplished in 2022, I'm even more excited about our future. Our utilities serve the homes of more than 10 million customers, customers that include our employees, our families, hospitals, schools, and businesses.
.:
As I cover today’s updates, 2022 results, upcoming rate case activity and the roll forward of our financial disclosures, you will find that our focus on execution drives the results that customers and shareholders expect. Starting on Slide 8, we delivered strong financial results in our first year as a new company. For the fourth quarter, Exelon’s continuing operations earned $0.43 per share on a GAAP and non-GAAP basis. For the full year 2022, we earned $2.08 per share on a GAAP basis and $2.27 per share on a non-GAAP basis. Results that are in the upper half of our narrowed guidance range and represent 8.1% growth of the $2.10 per share mid-point of our Analyst Day guidance range for 2021. Throughout the year, we benefited from rising treasury rates impacting ComEd’s distribution ROE as well as favorable weather and storm conditions. These benefits, along with strong cost control in our core operations, helped to offset higher interest expense at corporate and the businesses, along with the one-time items of discontinued operations and the voluntary customer refund in Illinois. That net favorability provided flexibility to reinvest back in the business and de-risk future years while ensuring we were meeting and exceeding our financial commitments. Quarter-to-date and year-to-date drivers relative to prior year are detailed in the appendix slides 32 and 33. Moving to Slide 9. Looking at our utility returns on a consolidated basis, we delivered within our 9% to 10% targeted range, with a 9.4% ROE for 2022. This is the highest our earned ROE has been since 2019 as we focused on mitigating inflationary pressures to ensure costs aligned with our allowed revenue. 30-year treasury rates improved as well, supporting ComEd’s distribution ROE. Looking forward, we remain focused on earning the allowed returns of the utilities, which we expect will keep Exelon in the 9% to 10% earned ROE range annually throughout the planning period, while investing to maintain reliability and keep pace with our jurisdictions energy transition. Turning to our outlook for 2023. We are initiating adjusted operating earnings guidance of $2.30 to $2.42 per share, reflecting a mid-point that is consistent with the directional guide provided in the third quarter. Relative to the midpoint of our 2022 estimated guidance range, the 5% year-over-year earnings growth is primarily driven by the continued increase in rate base as we deploy capital for the benefit of our customers as well as by increased revenues associated with completed rate cases. As a reminder, expected year-over-year growth in 2023 is slightly below the 6% to 8% range as PECO enters the second year with its current electric distribution rates and anticipates returning to normal weather and storm activity. 2023 also requires managing against cost increases in our multi-year plans out East as we await their first reconciliations, particularly at BGE and the end of the stay-out provision at Pepco DC. With the de-risking efforts we undertook in 2022, including initiating hedging programs for both our long and short-term debt as well as for Exelon’s exposure to the 30-year treasury, we are confident that our projected earnings will be within the range of $2.30 to $2.42 per share in 2023. Additional detail on our earnings sensitivities reflective of our hedging activity to date is provided on Slide 34 in the appendix. As you think about the shaping of 2023 quarterly earnings, I will remind you that, historically, we have realized approximately 28% of full year earnings in the first quarter, consistent with seasonal weather patterns at the utilities and the general cadence of completed rate cases. On Slide 11, we provide our updated outlook for utility CapEx and rate base, covering 2023 to 2026. We plan to invest $7.2 billion in 2023 and a total of $31.3 billion over the next four years, an increase of $2.3 billion from the prior four-year planning period. Since the Analyst Day disclosures for the 2023 through 2025 period, we have identified an additional $875 million of planned investments to serve our customers. Updates include refinements to ComEd’s distributional capital plan, which was developed as part of the multi-year integrated grid plans filed this January. The result is that over the next four years, our rate base is expected to increase 7.9% on a compound annual growth basis to $69.6 billion. This growth adds approximately $18.3 billion to rate base from 2023 through 2026, an amount roughly equal to the size of ComEd’s current rate base. With four multi-year plan rate filings planned for this year, I’d remind you that our capital forecast only reflects identified projects we expect to recover through our constructive recovery mechanisms. The plan reflects a disciplined prioritization of potential investments to balance interest, providing reliable service to our customers and progress on our jurisdictions energy goals while also maintaining affordability. Our plan remains free of any large speculative projects. In fact, the largest transmission and distribution project in our plan remains the $300 million multi-year Erdman to Summerfield Transmission Expansion project at BGE. This project represents only 1% of our total projected capital spend from 2023 to 2026. And the collective spend on the largest transmission and distribution projects at each of the four operating companies totals only 2.2% of our $31 billion plan. Turning to Slide 12, our ability to deploy $31 billion of capital for our customers over the next four years at affordable rates amidst persistent inflationary pressures would not be possible without a resolute focus on managing costs. At our adjusted O&M costs grown in line with average annual inflation of 3.2% from 2016 through 2023, they would’ve increased by approximately $1 billion. Instead, we are projecting a 1.7% CAGR for the same period, eliminating over $500 million of customer rate increases that would’ve occurred without our intentional focus on driving efficiencies. This includes leveraging our platform of four operating companies to share best practices and drive economies of scale. It also includes investing in innovative technology and processes such as a recent pilot to conduct vegetation management work with the help of specialized drones, reducing a two-day job for a human crew to 45 minutes of drone deployment. It also cut the material acquired by over 90%. We are particularly proud of keeping O&M growth low after the separation. We committed to our customers that they would not see increased costs because of the separation, and I’m proud to say we achieved that. From renegotiating key enterprise wide IT contracts to continually reoptimizing the organizational design for the services our utilities need. Our cost discipline culture ensured that we kept that commitment while executing operationally at top-notch levels and delivering earnings in the upper half of our guidance range. In 2023, adjusted O&M at our utilities is projected to be $4.2 billion, representing a 1% or $50 million increase from 2022, a rate well below the expected inflation rate of 4% in 2023 and building on our efficiency efforts in 2022. We will continue to ensure that our business is appropriately designed to efficiently deliver services as a transmission and distribution only energy delivery company. This study discipline around cost has positioned us very well. In the bottom chart, you can see Exelon’s average electric rates are 23% below the top 20 metropolitan cities in the United States. Beyond cost management, other unique factors contribute to lower bills for our customers, some of which Calvin discussed. But I’d like to highlight the benefit of the carbon mitigation contracts resulting from Illinois’s 2021 Climate and Equitable Jobs Act or CEJA. Based on energy forwards as of January 31, these credits are projected to protect ComEd customers from over $3 billion of additional energy charges between 2022 and 2027. That brings me to Slide 13, where I wanted to take a moment to highlight ComEd’s commitment to decarbonizing the communities in Illinois in the most efficient, affordable, and equitable manner possible. CEJA put Illinois on a path to a 100% decarbonized energy sector by 2045. It also provides a framework for ComEd to help support the state and make the grid investments necessary to support beneficial electrification, decarbonization, and the energy transformation. In one of its first steps to meeting the challenge of a clean energy economy, ComEd filed its multi-year integrated grid plan and multi-year rate plan covering 2024 through 2027 with the Illinois Commerce Commission. The proposed investment plan includes initiatives such as 4 kV to 12 kVconversions, bus reconfigurations, overhead and underground repairs and support for an anticipated 1 million electric vehicles by 2030. To smooth the transition for customers from the formula rate to the multi-year rate plan, ComEd has filed to defer collection of 35% of the 2024 increase until 2026. An order is expected from the ICC no later than December 20, 2023. Turning to Slide 14, as Calvin mentioned, BGE anticipates filing its second multi-year plan and first multi-year plan reconciliation with the Maryland Public Service Commission later this month. Proposed investments expected in the filing support the climate and decarbonization goals of Maryland’s Climate Solutions Now Act. As an example of how we are partnering with key stakeholders in Maryland consider the electric school bus program. The new law created a statewide electric school bus program through which BGE will be able to offer $50 million in incentives to school districts we serve to help cover the incremental cost of purchasing electric buses with a focus on access for low income and minority communities, plus BGE will also be able to call on those new electric fleets to provide grid resilient support through vehicle-to-grid technology. Those types of initiatives are what drive the local economic impact highlighted on the slide, including the support of over 72,000 jobs. BGE’s rate plan will cover electric and gas customer rates from 2024 through 2026 inclusive of a reconciliation on 2021 and 2022 cost from its original multi-year plan filing. Additional details will be available once BGE makes its filing later this month, with a final order expected by December 2023. With Delmarva Power Delaware’s ongoing electric distribution rate case, and Pepco D.C. and Pepco Maryland’s anticipated second multi-year plan filings, you can expect further discussion on these cases on future earnings calls. Turning to Slide 15, with $31 billion of projected capital spend, driving 7.9% rate base growth and with continued focus on earning ROEs of 9% to 10%, we are projecting compounded annual earnings growth of 6% to 8% through 2026 from our 2022 guidance midpoint of $2.25 per share. Maintaining our commitment to transparency from the third quarter earnings call, we have provided year-over-year drivers contributing to the expected annual growth in our earnings through 2026 on Slide 16. While there is variability in the year-over-year growth over the four-year time period, the business drivers provide transparency into our commitment of 6% to 8% through 2026. As you can see on the slide after 2023, we expect to deliver each year within the 6% to 8% range, if not above. We have reaffirmed our guidance for 2021 through 2025 of 6% to 8% with the expectation of being at midpoint or better. Similarly, we expect our four year CAGR from 2022 to 2026 will be at the midpoint or better of the 6% to 8% targeted growth range. We also continue to project an approximate 60% dividend pay-out ratio of operating earnings with a dividend growing in line with our long-term earnings. We anticipate an annualized dividend of $1.44 per share in 2023, which is 6.7% higher than the 2022 dividend. I will conclude with a discussion on our balance sheet on Slide 17. The attributes of our fully regulated transmission and distribution platform, including forward-looking recovery mechanisms, majority decoupled rates, de-concentrated investment risk and diversified jurisdictions will continue to provide flexibility going forward. Over our guidance period, we project 100 basis points to 200 basis points of cushion on average for our consolidated corporate credit metrics above Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s downgrade thresholds of 12%, demonstrating our commitment to maintaining a strong balance sheet. While the U.S. Treasury Department works towards implementing the Inflation Reduction Act legislation, our plan fully incorporates the impact of the corporate alternative minimum tax, including reflecting the results in deferred tax assets in each of the utilities rate bases, consistent with the recent rate case filings at ComEd and Delmarva Power. We have talked previously about how regulations and the inclusion of certain deductions would substantially mitigate the corporate alternative minimum tax impact. Without the ability to include certain deductions, we expect the cushion in our average credit metrics to be on the lower end of the 100 basis points to 200 basis points range. Our metrics would average closer to the higher end of the range over the guidance period if we were able to include those deductions. Consistent with our earnings profile, our credit metrics are expected to strengthen over time as we step into new multiyear plans and finalize the reconciliation processes. As we await clarity on the corporate alternative minimum tax, we continue to maintain the discipline approach to cost and cash management across all areas of the business, ensuring we maintain appropriate cushion above our downgrade threshold of 12%. I will close by reaffirming our financing plans with the holding company. We continue to affirm the remaining $425 million of our $1 billion equity commitment. We expect to issue this equity sometime between 2023 and 2025. As we work with our jurisdictions and find opportunities for further investment at the utilities, we’ll continue to ensure that our capital structure reflects a balanced funding strategy and a strong balance sheet consistent with the expectations of a premium, transmission and distribution company. Thank you. I’ll now turn the call back to Calvin for his closing remarks.
Calvin Butler:
Thank you, Jeanne. Before turning it over for questions, I will end with the focus of what’s ahead for 2023. Operations and safety continue to be foundational. Maintaining reliability for our customers, while operating safely is non-negotiable. We’ll deploy $7.2 billion of capital, ensuring we make the necessary progress to meet the reliability and technology needs of tomorrow’s grid. Indeed, as many of you saw last week, the FBI announced it had interrupted a plot to damage Maryland’s power grid. The need to enhance the physical and cybersecurity of the grid has never been greater. The industry has made it a priority. The partnership between the industry and the government is key to our defences and on behalf of our employees and our customers we greatly appreciate the vigilance and dedication by the FBI and U.S. attorney for the District of Maryland in protecting our nation’s critical infrastructure. Thank you. Despite the urgency, investing capital efficiently will ensure we are making returns on our investments in line with those allowed by our jurisdictions, earning ROEs in the 9% to 10% range. As a result, we expect to deliver on our earnings guidance for 2023, maintain our focus on a strong balance sheet and execute on a number of rate cases this year to sustain operational and financial performance in the future. As we deliver on this plan, we will continue to focus on the value we are providing our customers. This includes not only continuing to advocate for policies that keep the customers as top priority, but also continuing to evaluate our own business to find efficiencies as a more focused transmission and distribution only utility. Like 2022, we have a lot we want to accomplish in 2023. But we again, expect to be successful because that’s what we do. And we know that’s what you expect from the premier, transmission and distribution company one that’s deploying $31 billion of capital for our customers with rate-based growth and ROEs resulting in 6% to 8% earnings and dividend growth and a total shareholder return of 9% to 11%. As always, thank you for your time and support. And we’ll now take your questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Nick Campanella from Credit Suisse.
Nick Campanella:
Hey team. Thanks.
Calvin Butler:
Good morning, Nick.
Nick Campanella:
Thanks for taking my question here. Good morning. Good morning. I think in your prepared remarks, you said you’re going to include the CMAT as a deferred tax asset. And just – can you just give us more color on what’s informing your position on regulatory treatment here? And then separately, it sounds like the CMAT is not included in the FFO to debt metrics. You’re at the bottom of the 13% to 14%, but where did you kind of shake out in 2022? Thanks.
Calvin Butler:
Sure, Nick. Thank you. I’ll start, and then as always, I turn to Jeanne because her team is leading this effort with treasury through the efforts of Rob with EEI. But as we continue to assume that the CMAT is implemented in a way that does not allow for repairs treatment, resulting in incremental cash taxes. As Jeanne talked about, we have fully incorporated into our guidance, including recording each utility CMAT on its balance sheet and as part of its rate base and the implied impact will move around as taxable income and book income change. That doesn’t mean that we’re not continuing to work with treasury to get those – that repairs language because we believe that is the best thing for our customers. In addition to that, Nick, as we’ve talked about, we have already taken that challenge and offset within our earnings, but we have pushed it down into the utilities where the income is earned and it will move around. But I’ll let Jeanne clarify, provide any additional information.
Jeanne Jones:
Yes. No, I think that’s well said. As Calvin said, we’re still working on the tax repairs deduction and without specific language in the regulations, we continue to assume the higher cash tax burden, but you do – by having the deferred tax asset at the operating companies, you do earn on that in rate base. So that provides a little bit of sort of offset over time as that rate base builds. We also, so all of the cash taxes are included in our forward-looking guidance from both an EPS and a credit metric perspective. And we continue to reaffirm the 6% to 8% on the EPS side. And then as it relates to the balance sheet, we are still expecting to be at that 13% to 14%. And so with the inclusion of the higher cash taxes or said another way, without the repairs deduction, we expect to be closer to that 13%. If we are able to include the tax repairs deduction, we’d be at the higher end of that 13% to 14%. So, we’ll continue to work with treasury on that, and we’ll continue to focus on our cost management and cash management to continue to increase that cushion.
Nick Campanella:
Got it. And then, sorry if I missed the disclosure, but where did you kind of end the year out on your credit for 2022?
Jeanne Jones:
Yes. So we typically don’t give specific years. The rating agencies will publish that. We ended the year above our downgrade threshold. I think, as you think about credit metrics, the way we look at it and the way the agencies do is over a three-year, four-year time period because of the different moves in cash from a regulatory perspective. So, I’ll give you a couple of examples. While we’ve benefited from the higher ROEs [at ComEd] (ph) on the earnings side, we can recognize that the cash collections on that come through the reconciliation. So for example, in 2022, right, we had the higher earned ROEs, we won’t collect that until 2024. So it’s important for us to look at it on an average basis so that you capture those timing differences. The other aspect I’ll mention is, as I talked about in my prepared remarks, ComEd elected to defer some of the rate increase in 2024 to 2026. So again, looking on it over that time period is important because without it, you’re missing some of the cash timing. And that’s why we look at it on that average basis.
Nick Campanella:
Thanks a lot for that. And then, I guess just, it’s nice to see that you bumped the CapEx program higher, and you’re not changing your kind of total equity needs in a five-year window here. Just of that remaining 425 equity, you guys did a block for the first piece. Just is it your intention to kind of dribble out the remaining here via an ATM or otherwise, any comments on that?
Jeanne Jones:
Yes, we want to retain the flexibility just given varying market conditions, but we do still have our $1 billion ATM, so we can leverage that as needed to dribble it in as you suggest.
Nick Campanella:
Really appreciate it. Thank you.
Calvin Butler:
Thank you, Nick.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Steve Fleishman from Wolfe Research.
Steven Fleishman:
Yes, good morning. Thanks for all the…
Calvin Butler:
Good morning.
Steven Fleishman:
Good morning, Calvin. Jeanne, thanks for all the clarifications on guidances. Don’t have to ask all sorts of midpoint or median or other type questions this time.
Calvin Butler:
Had to [Indiscernible].
Steven Fleishman:
So just on Slide 16, I guess the one thing that’s interesting is just for PECO, in the 2023 kind of second year of a rate year, it was a – it’s a down versus 2022, but in 2026 second year it’s kind of more flattish or yellow arrow. Is that just that PECO had this return to normal weather and storms and other stuff that is an issue 2023 versus 2022, and that’s pretty much it, but like otherwise would be kind of the normal course.
Calvin Butler:
Yes, you’re right on point, Steve. That’s exactly the reasoning.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay. Okay. And then just on the topic of the – on Illinois, could you give us maybe some sense of when we’re going to get information on the process, on the recommendations and other stuff on the multiply year kind of timing?
Calvin Butler:
Yes, and I do have with me Gil Quiniones, CEO of ComEd to really walk you through that process. So I’m going to turn to Gil to kind of walk you through the timing of how things are going to unfold. Gil?
Gil Quiniones:
Hi, Steve. So there is a tentative schedule set. And in May, we expect the testimony of the interveners to be submitted in August, evidentiary hearings will commence. And again, the – after that all the way to the required schedule is for the ICCR regulators to make their final determination before December 20 of this year.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay.
Calvin Butler:
So that [Indiscernible] calendar, Steve, any additional questions on that?
Steven Fleishman:
Well, just, is there, because this is first time, is it likely that this would go through a fully litigated process or should we think there might be opportunities to settle these cases?
Calvin Butler:
No, I would anticipate on this - this would be fully litigated Steve, because, as we talked about, as I talked about in my comments, it’s been a very engaged stakeholder process. And if I was the commission in this, I would make sure that we have a forum for everyone to be heard and we wouldn’t rush to the final outcome because this will put Illinois on a path to decarbonize like no other state except for maybe California. And it’s in a very aggressive approach and the legislation is comprehensive and ComEd being the largest utility in the state I think they need to make sure that all voices are heard and the stakeholders are engaged throughout.
Steven Fleishman:
Great. Thank you.
Calvin Butler:
Thank you.
Jeanne Jones:
Thanks, Steve.
Operator:
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of David Arcaro from – or Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.
David Arcaro:
Hi, good morning.
Calvin Butler:
Good morning, David.
David Arcaro:
Thanks for taking my question. Good morning. Maybe just a quick follow-up on the…
Jeanne Jones:
Good morning.
David Arcaro:
… PECO related question. I was just wondering, so you’ve got the one year in 2023 below the low end, but really back in the six to eight or above thereafter. And I was just wondering maybe more broadly or structurally like is the business now manageable within that 6% to 8% annual growth level year-to-year, even through some of the lumpier rate cases as you look forward?
Calvin Butler:
No, if I understand the question, David, PECO is a very well run utility and operating at a high level. And because they have taken the option on the three-year forward-looking test year process, it is one that the regulatory agency understands, one with the company has deemed it is the best value for our customers. And although they have the option to file an additional alternative rate mechanism, we’ve stuck with this course. And we are also looking at to your point, how can we balance the earnings over the course of the three years where it’s more linear and process and the teams continue to work on that. We continue to look at other options, but have chosen to stay the course of where we are at the present time. And Mike Innocenzo, the CEO of PECO is here with us right now. Mike, would you have anything to add with that?
Mike Innocenzo:
Again, I would just – I would echo that. In Pennsylvania, we do have the ability for three-year [ph] rate structure. We’ve continued to review this annually and believe that it’s the current course has been the best for balance between the shareholders and fair rates for our customers.
Jeanne Jones:
David, I think the – so tapping off of that. On PECO, I would look you to Slide 16. So there is the second year of PECO in 2023. But to your point, beyond 2023, we expect to be within or above the range. And so, while you have PECO in 2023, there’s a couple other factors impacting 2023 that don’t carry forward. Unlike, our assumption that PECO continues on this three-year rate case cycle. There’s a couple other things that are unique to 2023 that I’ll just highlight. One is, as we’ve talked about, we’re not yet through the reconciliation processes in Maryland and D.C. for the first multi-year plans. Once we get through that, the alignment between rate-based and growth and earnings growth is strengthened. So that’s number one. The second is in 2023, we have the D.C. stay out provision. So they’re still on 2022 rates. And so as we get out of that and move towards 2024, you’re going to have new rate cases, new multi-year plans for 2024, 2025, 2026. Starting in 2024, so that starts again to strengthen the earnings power there. And then on top of that, ComEd is moving to its multiyear plan. And so as you go through 2024 you start to see again three of our four operating companies on multiyear plans with reconciliations, strengthening that alignment between rate base growth and earnings growth. And then you've got PECO with that variability that Calvin and Mike touched on. So that's why, if you look forward, 2023 is a little bit different than 2024, 2025, 2026, and I think Slide 16 really helps lay that out.
David Arcaro:
Thanks for that.
Calvin Butler:
Did it answer your question, David?
David Arcaro:
Yes, absolutely. And I was just wondering on the – maybe just a quick other topic on the Chicago franchise agreement. I was wondering if you could just speak to the financial implications of the proposal that you've put forth? And your thoughts on the prospects to get that approved and when that could go into place? Thanks.
Calvin Butler:
Absolutely. A couple of things. As we've been highlighting to you in our previous earnings call, we understood and have a clear understanding of what the City of Chicago was striving for. And I think the proposal that ComEd has presented in partnership with the Mayor outlines the goals of decarbonization, equity and workforce development. Within that ComEd over the course of the last couple of years as they've been negotiating this and putting this in place, understood the dollars in which they would do and what we would commit to as a company. Exelon, ComEd and alike and shareholder commitment to this effort because we value the partnership. So what has been outlined from the Mayor really is essence of all of that in terms. Gil, as I mentioned, is here to talk about some of the details, but what we have laid out is that this process goes to the Rules Committee this month with the city. And from there, it will go to a committee of jurisdiction. And we're confident that, as they begin to do an analysis of what we're proposing, it will meet the aspirations of the city and achieve those goals overall. So on the financials, I'm going to turn it over to Gil to kind of walk you through what that is.
Gil Quiniones:
Yes. So for the Chicago franchise agreement, there are actually two agreements. There's the franchise agreement and the energy and equity agreement. And as Calvin mentioned, our goal was to align our proposal to Chicago's Climate Action Plan and the state's Climate Equitable Jobs Act, and we achieved those goals. In terms of the financials, it is a 15-year agreement with an option to extend for another five years and the first 15 years, we have committed – proposed to commit $100 million in shareholder dollars and if extended, another $20 million.
Jeanne Jones:
And all of that's baked into the guidance that we've provided.
Gil Quiniones:
Correct.
David Arcaro:
Okay. Understood. Great. Thanks so much.
Calvin Butler:
Thank you, David.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of James Kennedy from Guggenheim Partners.
James Kennedy:
Hey guys. Good morning. Congrats on the outstanding quarter.
Calvin Butler:
Thank you, James. Good morning.
James Kennedy:
So I guess just kind of keeping on the topic of Illinois, how are you thinking about the backdrop for transition at the commission this year, given there's a vacancy, there some expired terms and some other overhangs on several at the moment?
Calvin Butler:
Yes. James, great question, but I'll be honest with you. When we look at our interactions and engagement with regulatory bodies, we anticipate turnover. And that is exactly why – although we have regular conversations about the process and what we're proposing, our real engagement happens with our stakeholders, the stakeholders, our customers, residential, commercial and industrial. As I outlined in terms of ComEd even filing, I think there were over 45 stakeholder meetings, presentations over and over 1,000 different people attended these. So although the commission turnover is something that we deal within all of our jurisdictions, if we're doing this right, and I think we are. We're meeting the policy expectations of each of our jurisdictions, aligning our filings with those policies and engaging stakeholders at the grassroot level, the commission turnover should not be that big of a deal. So that's how we approach it in not only Illinois but in each of our jurisdictions.
James Kennedy:
Got you. Got you. And then just on the expense side, '22 adjusted O&M look like it came in a little bit higher than the prior plan. I guess what were the drivers there? And how should we think about the, the future cost inflation embedded in the drivers and assumptions you guys laid out on Slide 16 that? Thanks.
Jeanne Jones:
Yes. Great question. So for – you’re right, so for 2021 to 2022, we did see a little bit higher O&M. We had projected at Analyst Day to be up around a $100 million year-over-year due to certain IT investments, another infrastructure, cybersecurity work that was occurring in this year. But in addition to that, there were a couple other items at the end of this year or that impacted 2022. First was we have some onetime cost associated with the implementation of the Climate and Equitable Jobs Act at ComEd. So that’s reflective there. In addition to that, as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, we did some derisking this year. So we took advantage of the opportunity from some of the tailwinds related to the ComEd ROE and favorable weather conditions to get some work done this year, including corrective maintenance and veg management, but also some customer assistance and community support initiatives. So all in all that, that sort of gets you to the higher O&M for 2022. And then you asked about how to think about it going forward. I think the, our goal is to keep O&M as low as possible. You can see 2022 to 2023 is only a 1% increase and our long-term CAGR since 2016 has been about 1.7%. So our goal is to keep that as low as possible.
James Kennedy:
Perfect. Thanks guys. I appreciate it.
Calvin Butler:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Durgesh Chopra from Evercore ISI.
Durgesh Chopra:
Hey good morning team. Thank you for taking my questions. Jeanne, just a quick clarification on the $850 million - $875 [ph] million in CapEx which is sort of in the, I guess in the 2023 or the prior four years. Is that all in Illinois? Is that Illinois distribution?
Jeanne Jones:
Yes, no, there was some also at BGE on the transmission side. So I think, while ComEd updated for its multiyear plan, there was also some added investment at BGE as well.
Durgesh Chopra:
Got it. But most of it is in Illinois. And that is included in your, the multiyear rate filing?
Jeanne Jones:
That’s correct.
Durgesh Chopra:
Okay, thanks. And then just, I think this is back to you, but and I appreciate this is going to be difficult, but pretty sizable increase in CapEx that is great to see, and the equity didn’t move. Can you share any thoughts as we think about, sort of when you update your CapEx plan for future years, how should we think about equity needs? I’m thinking sort of 2027 and beyond. Are those going to be modest given that, you’re kind of trending upwards in your FFO to debt metrics?
Jeanne Jones:
Yes, I think as you saw in the waterfall of the latest, sort of financing of the investment plan, our internal cash flows continue to strengthen as we step into new multiyear plans. And we have the roll-off of the onetime opening balance sheet adjustment in 2022. But, and as our rate base grows and depreciation, we collect that and reinvest it back in the business. As you think about, so for that period, right we’ve reaffirmed the 425 to the extent additional capital is required to help our energy, our jurisdictions with their energy transformation. You can expect us to fund it in a balanced way with a keen focus on our commitment to 6% to 8% as well as the balance sheet cushion that we talk about a 100 to 200 basis points.
Durgesh Chopra:
That’s helpful. Thank you very much.
Calvin Butler:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. I would now like to turn the conference back to Calvin Butler, Exelon’s President and CEO for closing remarks.
Calvin Butler:
Thank you, Gigi. Let me first begin by saying thank you to each of you for joining the call and the partnership that you’ve shown and demonstrated to Jeanne and I over the last several months. It’s been really appreciated. And to our employees, thank you for all the hard work and dedication that you demonstrated in 2022. We look forward to engaging with all of you throughout 2023. And with that, that concludes this call. Have a great day.
Operator:
Thanks to all our participants for joining us today. This concludes our presentation. You may now disconnect. Have a good day.
Operator:
Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q3 2022 Exelon Corporation Earnings Conference Call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers’ presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today’s conference is being recorded. And I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Mr. Andy Plenge, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, please go ahead.
Andy Plenge:
Thank you, Chris. Good morning everyone and thank you for joining our third quarter 2022 earnings conference call. Leading the call today are Chris Crane, Exelon’s Chief Executive Officer; and Jeanne Jones, Exelon’s Chief Financial Officer. They’re joined by Calvin Butler, Exelon’s President and Chief Operating Officer, who will join Chris, Jeanne and other members of Exelon’s senior management team to answer your questions following prepared remarks. We issued our earnings release this morning along with the presentation, all of which can be found in the Investor Relations section of Exelon’s website. The earnings release and other matters, which we discuss during today’s call, contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ from our forward-looking statements based on factors and assumptions discussed in today’s material and comments made during this call. Please refer to today’s 8-K and Exelon’s other SEC filings for discussions of risk factors and other factors that may cause results to differ from management’s projections, forecasts and expectations. Today’s presentation also includes references to adjusted operating earnings and other non-GAAP measures. Please refer to the information contained in the appendix of our presentation and our earnings release for reconciliations between the non-GAAP measures and the nearest equivalent GAAP measures. We’ve scheduled 60 minutes for today’s call. I’ll now turn the call over to Chris Crane, Exelon’s CEO.
Chris Crane:
Thanks, Andy, and good morning to everybody. We’re glad to have you with us this morning. As you know – as you all know, yesterday, we announced my retirement from Exelon at the end of the year due to some health reasons. I plan on addressing that at the end of the call after reviewing the operational and financial update of the quarter. Let me turn through, first, though, to the operating aspects of that announcement. Calvin Butler, our President and Chief Operating Officer become the President and CEO and a member of the Exelon Board on my retirement. Since Calvin began with us to comment, he has been a key part the development of our industry-leading platform. During his time at BGE, he made customer satisfaction best-in-class, significantly increase the leadership diversity and became CEO of Exelon Utilities after that. In that role, he continue to push the operating companies to align with the management model and drive industry-leading operational excellence. Jeanne is now CFO, which we’re very pleased with. Jeanne has been with Exelon for 15 years in various finance roles across the corporate and the former nuclear division. She was CFO at ComEd and most recently, Senior Vice President of Exelon Corporation. Jeanne has a very strong background and experienced positions for well for expanded responsibility. You’ll hear from Jeanne momentarily for the financial update. And both Calvin and Jeanne will join me for the Q&A of the call. I would also like to thank Joe Nigro for his work launching the new Exelon and successfully executing the spin. Happy to report solid performance for the quarter. The investments we’re making are on behalf of our customers and continue to drive strong operations and financial results. We reported GAAP earnings of $0.68 per share and adjusted operating earnings of $0.75 per share. We are reaffirming the midpoint of our range and narrowing it by $0.06. Jeanne will provide more color on that. We continue to execute at high operational levels, which I’ll speak more about on the next slide. We had a construction rate case outcome this quarter. The commission in Delaware and Pennsylvania improve settlements on gas situation rates for Delmarva and [indiscernible]. We also reached a settlement on key elements with the first multi-year filing for Delmarva Power first settlement for the multiyear plan. We expect the final order in December. In Illinois, ComEd received the final order on its performance tracking mechanisms and the plan in September. That’s a big milestone on the transition they’re making to a multiyear distribution rate construct, and it gives us a good foundation to build upon. As a result, we intend to file a multiyear distribution plan in January with a four-year rate structure beginning January 1, 2024, continuing through the end of 2026 choosing the multiyear plan over a future test year is the right choice for our customers and our shareholders. We appreciate the transparency and forward-looking planning in rate predictability that it allows. Our rate case will be filed at the same time as our multiyear integrated grid plant with the final order by the end of 2023. So there has been a lot of good operational and financial progress this year and we’re on track to close a very strong year. We know investors are focused on our outlook this year. First, I’ll update you on the Inflation Reduction Act. We’ve always strived for transparency. So last quarter, we communicated the potential impact or higher annual cash tax as a result of the IRA. Since passing the bill, we’ve been working with the industry and we remain optimistic that Treasury will implement the guidelines in a way that materially mitigates the impact. Regardless of the outcome of Treasury, we’re reaffirming our 6% to 8% annual growth target from 21 to 25, which I’ll talk bit more about shortly. In addition to reaffirming our growth commitment, we have emphasized the impact of the potential higher cash tax. Even in the event of the impact is not mitigated through treasury regulations. We expect that higher cash needs will not require us to issue additional equity beyond the original $1 billion commitment through 2025. On the positive side, the Inflation Reduction Act is very beneficial for our customers as we lead the energy transition. We look forward to the moment that we will build an industry as the industry takes advantage of this historic legislation past this year. Our jurisdictions were already driving for clean and federal support enacted this year is more affordable and accessible to customers. We see opportunities in terms of [indiscernible] to connect renewables, support alternative fuel production and distribution, and make the grid ready for increased electrification, including electric vehicles. Legislation alongside the Infrastructure Jobs Act provide more than $550 billion funding for energy related infrastructure over the next 10 years, which will generate significant demand for our investments we make. Finally, I’d like to talk about our growth outlook. We told you on Analyst Day, we expect to invest $29 million of capital to serve our customers in our communities over the next four years, which supports an annual growth rate of 8.1% that will drive the long-term earnings growth rate. As many of you know the path to achieving our annualized growth target is not linear, but 6% to 8% commitment through 2025 is our focus, largely because the cadence of rate cases, we have some years that maybe lower than that range and other years that will be above that range. We’ll see that more clearly when Jeanne covers Slide 9. On the operational highlights, Slide 5. We continue to ensure customers receive safety, affordability, and reliability and clean, which underpins everything they do. Excuse me. Reliability remains at top notch, we are again at top quartile for outage duration over all of our jurisdictions and outage frequency performance remains at high levels. ComEd and PECO achieved their best on record performance. In fact, through the third quarter of 2022, ComEd has delivered the most reliable service it ever has an over a 100 years. Reliability is 82% better than when ComEd had set out on a smart grid improvements in 2011. Our customers have greatly benefited from the investment as reliability on the grid increases. Through the third quarter BGE and ComEd – a testament to the reliability, I got a page ahead of my stuff. A testament to the reliability has increased data center growth in the ComEd district in the last few years. The data center additions have aggregated about 500 megawatts of new demand each year, approximately nine times the average of the annual amount seen in earlier in the prior decade. For safety ComEd maintains top decile performance, but the three other utilities continue to fall outside of that level [indiscernible]. We expect only the highest safety standards and performance for all utilities. Each utility is dedicated to implementing safety practices developed through lessons learned to minimize the chance of incident, and there’s an intense training program going on with our personalized supervisors to help further educate and it has set the expectation, which all utilities are participating together, which helps. Through third quarter – excuse me, three quarters BGE, ComEd, PECO remain in top quartile of customer satisfaction performance. Lastly, we remain top decile performance in odor response across our three gas utilities. For the third quarter in a row, PHI responded to all gas odor reports in less than one hour. Let me turn to Jeanne to provide the financial update.
Jeanne Jones:
Thank you, Chris. And good morning everyone. Today will cover our third quarter results, completed an upcoming rate case activity, and then as Chris noted, provide further clarity on our earnings growth trajectory and potential balance sheet implications of the corporate minimum tax. On Slide 6, we show our quarter-over-quarter adjusted operating earnings. Exelon’s continuing operations earned $0.75 per share in the third quarter of 2022 versus $0.53 per share in the third quarter of 2021. As a reminder, the prior year third quarter reflects an $0.08 per share discontinued operations adjustments for certain corporate and overhead costs, previously allocated to generation that are required by accounting roles to be presented as part of Exelon’s continuing operations. These costs were paid for by generation and they are not indicative of our corporate overhead post separation. Excluding this $0.08 adjustment, Exelon third quarter results were $0.14 per share higher than the third quarter of 2021. The earnings growth was driven primarily by higher distribution rates associated with incremental investments and completed rate cases relative to third quarter 2021. The impact of higher treasury rates on ComEd’s distribution ROE, the absence of summer storm activity and distribution formula rate, timing at ComEd. This was partially offset by depreciation and amortization and higher interest expense on debt at the holding company. Year-to-date, results in drivers from the prior year are detailed on Appendix 540. Turning to the full year, we are narrowing our 2022 EPS guidance range to $2.21 to $2.29 per share from $2.18 to $2.32 per share. At Analyst Day, we told you we expected to earn 28% of our full year earnings in the first quarter, 20% in the second quarter, and 32% in the third quarter, or about 80% of full year earnings by the end of the third quarter. Delivering year-to-date earnings of $1.84 per share puts us slightly ahead at 82% of the midpoint of our revised guidance range, which considers the impact of higher treasury come on the distribution ROE, the absence of storms and our continued disciplined approach to cost management. These benefits are partially offset by higher financing costs at corporate and the businesses along with one-time items occurred in the first quarter. We are delivering on our financial commitments and are confident we will be within our revised guidance range at year-end. Moving to Slide 7. Looking at our utility returns on a consolidated basis, our trailing 12-month ROE as of the third quarter has improved to 9.3% and is back within our 9% to 10% targeted range. The 50 basis point increase from last quarter is in line with expectations as timing of equity infusions from the first half of the year are offset by the earnings growth in the second half of the year. As discussed on previous calls, we expect a trailing 12-month ROE to remain in our 9% to 10% target range at year-end. Our focus continues to be delivering strong earned returns at the utilities, which sustain the investment we make on behalf of our customers. Turning to Slide 8. There were some important developments in our open distribution rate case proceedings this quarter. Our successful execution builds momentum into 2023 when several jurisdictions expect to file a multi-year plans. Let me begin by highlighting key developments in the 2022 rate cases. On October 12, the Delaware Public Service Commission approved Delmarva Power settlement agreement without modification for its gas distribution rate case. The settlement was for a $13.4 million increase in distribution rates, which includes the transfer of $5.8 million of revenues from the distribution system improvement charge capital tracker into base distribution rates, reflecting an ROE of 9.6%. As permitted by Delaware law, Delmarva Power implemented full allowable rates on August 14, subject to refund. Additionally, on October 27, the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission issued an order approving the joint petition for settlement in PECO’s GAAP rate case including an annual natural gas distribution revenues increase of $54.8 million beginning January 1, 2023. We also have two rate cases pending final orders. Notably, Delmarva Power reached a settlement on the majority of key elements for its first electric distribution multi-year plan with the Maryland Public Service Commission, including a cumulative revenue increase of $28.9 million beginning in 2023 through 2025, reflecting an ROE of 9.6%. The ability to reach this settlement is a testament of the many benefits of this progressive rate design, including customer rate predictability, ease of regulatory burden and transparency into future system investments at our utilities. We expect a final order from the commission by year-end. Lastly, we expect a final order on ComEd’s final distribution formulary update in the fourth quarter. More details on the 2022 rate cases can be found on Slides 18 through 22 of the appendix. Turning to 2023 rate filings. ComEd continues to prepare for a new rate filing in January of 2023. Throughout 2022, ComEd has been working with stakeholders on the performance metrics proceeding. On September 27, the Illinois Commerce Commission issued its order approving the performance and tracking metrics plans, which includes seven performance metrics with a total value of plus or minus 32 basis points. The order paves the way for ComEd’s first multi-year plan filing in January 2023 for rate effective 2024 to 2027. Details of the filing will be shared on our fourth quarter call. The multi-year plans across our East Coast jurisdictions have enabled investments necessary to improve reliability and customer service. They’ve modernized the distribution system and supported state environmental goals that have served our customers and communities well. Building on this momentum, we anticipate filing second multi-year plan at BGE in the first quarter, at Pepco Maryland in the second quarter and at Pepco DC in the first half of 2023. Additionally, we anticipate filing the first multi-year plan reconciliation with BGE expected to file in the first quarter of 2023. Our first multi-year plan reconciliation is an important milestone that helps us throughout variances from the costs we filed as part of the multi-year plan in early 2020. Importantly, this reconciliation process will also provide our first opportunity to understand how the process will be implemented for any potential cost variances in future multi-year plans. As you can see, next year, we’ll be busy on the regulatory front, but we are excited for the transparency and stability the multi-year plans will continue to provide our customers and stakeholders. Relationships across our jurisdictions will be constructive, and we are working together with our regulators, speeds and communities to support their clean energy and chemical. As Chris noted, this year’s federal legislation only bolsters support for and the affordability of the transformation of our energy economy. The multi-year plans provide a great structure to align on the pace and the progress of that transformation. As a reminder, we expect nearly 100% of our rate base growth will be covered by alternative recovery mechanisms, such as the multi-year plan by the end of our planning period. Moving to Slide 9. As Chris described, we are confident that $29 billion of investments we are making on behalf of our customers will result in expected rate base growth of 8.1% and 16% annualized earnings growth from 2021 through 2025. We have noted that our business model does include some variability in year-over-year earnings growth due to the timing of rate cases, largely driven by Pennsylvania, which generates strong returns that support the continued need to invest for the benefit of our customers. In addition, for 2022 and 2023 at ComEd, we’re exposed to the 30-year treasury rate before making the transition to a more traditionally set return on equity. We’ve attempted to provide investors with additional information on the year-over-year variability with the building blocks of our earnings growth trajectory. As defined in the chart, the gray arrows represent implied 6% to 8% CAGR pass from the 2021 guidance mid-point of $0.02 per share as disclosed at Analyst Day through 2025. While the [indiscernible] illustrates expected year-over-year growth percentages from the prior year relative to the 68% range each year. Getting to the growth drivers, starting with 2023, we have already mentioned ComEd in its exposure to the 30-year treasury rate. Although current forward imply we should see some good upside to its ROE, we’ll need to monitor the impact through 2023, which remains fully exposed to market move. People will be in year two of its existing electric distribution rate per year cycle and as a result, is expected to have lower year-over-year earnings assuming normal weather. PECO’s earnings should be positively impacted by new GAAP rates, transmission and its distribution system improvement charge tracker, which provides a mechanism for recovery on distribution investments made between rate cases. Weather and store normalization will also be a factor in the PECO’s decoupled and we are modestly benefiting from weather to date. Like all companies, we face challenges from higher financing costs and inflation, which we are working hard to offset through productivity initiatives, investments in technology and by leveraging our size and scale. Reconciliation processes in 2023 in Maryland and DC will help establish precedent for future cost recovery under the multi-year plan. Lastly, at corporate, we will see increased costs as we continue to refinance our remaining floating rate from the separation as well financing the investment needs of our utilities at the current higher rates. As we do have the utilities, we continue to challenge our corporate center to reduce costs. For all these reasons, 2023 is expected to be below the lower end of the 6% to 8% growth range based on our outlook as of September 30. In 2024, we expect to be in the range as we enter the next cycle of our BGE and PECO multi-year plan, which allow us to align with stakeholders for the next three-year phase of the clean energy transition. PECO is expected to be in its third year of its existing electric distribution rate impacting year-over-year growth. Then with an expected rate case filing for PECO electric in 2025 and the rest of our utilities growing generally in line with the rate base investments, we expect to be above the upper end of the 6% to 8% range in 2025. The combination of growth across these years should put us squarely in the 6% to 8% range on an annualized basis for the 2021 through 2025 planning horizon. You can expect us to initiate 2023 guidance and provide a roll board of CapEx, rate base and financing plans as we normally do on our fourth quarter earnings call. Turning to Slide 10. Exelon remains committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet and a battered credit ratings continue to be a top priority. Our long-term corporate consolidated credit metric outlook remains strong for both S&P and Moody’s, regardless of the outcome of the corporate minimum tax. If the corporate minimum tax is enacted as written in the Inflation Reduction Act, the exposure tax on balance sheet is approximately $200 million per year as is posted in our August 8-K filing. We are working with the industry and remain optimistic that this impact can be mitigated. Even if unmitigated, as Chris noted, we expect to observe the cash impact on our balance sheet with cushion above our downgrade thresholds and we expect to be in our targeted 13% to 40% average range over the planning horizon without a need for incremental equity beyond the previously announced $1 billion commitment from 2022 through 2025. As a reminder, we issued $575 million in equity in August through a onetime offering and lease the remaining $425 million over the 2023 through 2025 period. Our commitment to a strong balance sheet is a top priority to ensure we can make the investments needed on behalf of our customers. I want to close by reiterating our confidence in investing an estimated $29 billion of capital from 2022 to 2025 driving 68% earnings growth from 2021 to 2025 and a strong balance sheet. This remains the case regardless of whether the corporate minimum tax is mitigated. Thank you. I will now turn the call back to Chris for his closing remarks.
Chris Crane:
Thanks, Jeanne. Moving to Slide 11. I’d like to emphasize excellence in value proposition and placing the energy delivery industry. The economy is making the transition to a cleaner, more resilient energy model the significant federal legislation passed this year, including the IIJA and the IRA provide momentum and support to our jurisdictions, which have been leading the way for years. Exelon offers an unparalleled exposure to that opportunity. We serve more electric and gas customers in any of the utility in the country in some of the largest cities of the country. We have earned the trust of our customers and our commissions by consistently reliably providing top-notch operation performance. And we live our values with steady commitments to path – to our path to clean goal as well as through environmental advocacy and is support for our communities in a strong governance model. As a result, there is a tremendous demand and support for investments we expect to make in our communities, which, as I said earlier, totals that $29 million of capital from 2022 to 2025. And only in the beginning stages of the transition that will take hold a few decades. None of our investments represent more than 1% of the $29 billion and the result from customer growth need to keep up the customer demand and the resilience on the [indiscernible] So we continue to feel confident in our 8.1% rate base growth and the projected 6% to 8% growth through – rate growth through 2025. We offer a very strong proposition – we have offered very strong proposition and will continue for years to come with the balance sheet and matching dividend commitments, combining our 3.5% dividend yield with the 6% to 8% annual growth offers low risk to the 9.5% to 11.5% total return proposition. That brings me to my retirement announcement. As noted in the release yesterday, I’ll retire at the end of the year. And as I mentioned, Calvin will assume the role of CEO and a member of the Exelon Board. We have made this decision recently that I will need treatment for a significant spine and hip issue that require me to focus on my health. Because of these issues, I won’t be able to join you – but Calvin and Jeanne and other members of our senior team look forward to seeing you there. Being part of building this industry-leading company over the last 24 years has been an honor. Regardless of the economy, the commodity prices, the regulatory output for our asset mix, Exelon has always focused on job running its operations safely and at top notch levels to serve our customers. We have built an amazing platform over the decades. I want to thank all of our talented employees, what they have done to get us where we are today and recognize the diverse experience and innovative approaches that will get us to where we need to go tomorrow. While I’ll miss being part of the team being this energy industry transformation, I have all the trust in the world of Calvin and his leadership team to rise to the latest challenges in Exelon in many ways. As always, thank you for your time and support and we’ll now take questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from Ross Fowler of UBS. Your line is open.
Ross Fowler:
Good morning, Chris. Good morning, Jeanne. Chris, best wishes as you deal with the spine issue, really sincerely hope everything works out okay. So just on Slide – let’s maybe go back to – Jeanne to go back to Slide 9 and just think about what this is communicating. If I kind of look at the 210, which is the midpoint of 2021 guidance, that should be my base year for thinking about the 6% to 8% range. And then you’re saying in 2023, you’re below that. So, if I’m thinking about this correctly, I take the 225 [ph] base or midpoint of 2022. That’s really saying given that, that 7% growth of 2021, that you’re growing maybe at sort of 4%, if I’m thinking about the math directly off 2022 into 2023. But then if I think about what you’re saying for 2024 and 2025 will swinglines here around 7% and above 8%. You got to kind of get back to that 7% four-year CAGR midpoint off 2021 by the time we get out to 2025. Is that a fair way to think about this?
Jeanne Jones:
Yes, yes. You’re thinking about it right. And I’ll just reiterate that the shareholders [ph] represent year-over-year growth from the prior year. So the way you walked through it is right. And then what we’ve tried to do is not give you a specific number for every year, but sort of narrow the outcome based on the building blocks below the CAGR line. So you can see the combination of growth over those years, puts us squarely in the 6% to 8% commitment 2021 through 2025.
Ross Fowler:
Okay. Great. Perfect. And then maybe on the $200 million of cash tax impact, you said that’s unmitigated. Is mitigation here really just about the treasury rules? And what’s the timing of maybe getting a first preliminary look at those treasury rules? Is that really Q1 since every corporation is going to have to make an estimated tax payment at some point in April? And then if you mitigate that, does that change the equity need at all? Or is that equity need pretty firm regardless of what happens with this $200 million?
Jeanne Jones:
Sure. Yes. So, I think three questions there. First, when we think about mitigation, there is working with EEI and the industry on the regulation. So that certainly would be a meaningful mitigation there if the regulations are written in a way that allows for certain deductions that we’ve previously had. But I would also say, as you know, right, we will look internally to do what we can, mitigate anything that we can on our end. But it’s a combination of those factors, but that’s right, the 60 basis points to 70 basis points that we put on the slide is the unmitigated whether through the regulations or internally the most conservative impact. I think your second question, I’m forgetting, but the third question was if the regulations do mitigate it or if it’s a 60 basis points to 70 basis points go away are we still committed to the $425 million that we are. So, we’re not – we don’t expect to do any more than the $1 billion we announced. As you know, we’ve already done the $575 million and then the remaining $425 million will execute between 2023 and 2025. The timing of the regulation.
Ross Fowler:
Yes. The second question, the second part of the question. Yes, timing. Yes.
Jeanne Jones:
Yes. So it would be helpful to have them by the first quarter. Obviously, that would be when we make our first payment that would be helpful, and we’ve sort of signaled that, that would be helpful, but we really can’t control. And we should know more next year, the sooner the better, obviously. But we’re still working through that. There are obviously the treasury is obviously still working through that.
Ross Fowler:
Okay, great. Thank you. I’ll jump back in the queue. Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. One moment please for our next question. Our next question will come from Paul Zimbardo of Bank of America.
Unidentified Analyst:
Hey good morning. It’s actually Julien here. Thanks for the time and Chris my best wishes here. If I may, just with respect to this quickly lines, as we call them, and your commentary about being squarely within – I don’t mean to repeat the last question too much, but to ask you does squarely within equate to effectively at the midpoint of the 6% to 8%? Is that a fair way to interpret that specific language you used?
Jeanne Jones:
Yes. I think we always seem to be solidly in within the range, right? But we haven’t given you sort of where with it. But what we’ve tried to do is show you that if you look at the year-over-year growth, and you look at the drivers below it that we are confidently reaffirming our 6% to 8% 2021 through 2025.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay. Fair enough. Sorry, I don’t mean the word it too much. You use the word. And then related second follow-up, if I may, on balance sheet. I know you talked about uncertainties here, but it sounds as if I’m hearing you correctly, the risk of having to make a payment, that payment being unknown, you’re confident in the current cumulative $1 billion of capital outlay on equity as being intact almost regardless of the various scenarios. Again, it doesn’t sound like it’s less than the $1 billion cumulatively, but it also similarly, depending on the scenarios doesn’t sound like it’s more than that as best you can tell right now again. And then if you can elaborate a little bit, is there any other nuance that we should be aware of that might be an offset to cash flow here to keep metrics intact? Or is this just simply a reduction of the metrics?
Jeanne Jones:
Yes. I think it’s – I think you’re thinking about it right. We are affirming we don’t need more than the $1 billion that we mentioned after analyzing the unmitigated impact. We can – again, whether it’s unmitigated through EEI or internally, we can absorb that on the balance sheet, stay above our downgrade threshold without incremental equity and then be within our 13% to 14% over the planning price.
Unidentified Analyst:
Got it. All right. Fair enough. Thank you for the clarification.
Jeanne Jones:
Thanks, Julien.
Operator:
Thank you. One moment please for the next question. Our next question will come from Steve Fleishman of Wolfe Research. Your line is open.
Steve Fleishman:
Hi good morning. Chris, I also want to give you the best wishes and hope your health gets better and just recognize – just I know we’re seeing it more through a different stock right now with CEG, but just the turnaround in nuclear that you help kind of make happens pretty remarkable. So congrats on that. Just on the – I guess, Jeanne, just on the first question on the nonlinear growth. I think from the very beginning when you gave the guide of the new Exelon, you did kind of – you did say that it wasn’t going to be linear and may not be in the range each year. So just now that you’re giving this incremental information, is it pretty consistent where it would have been if you had just given this at the beginning of the year, just reflecting this PECO rate cycle for the most part? Or are there other like big changes that have occurred?
Jeanne Jones:
Yes. I think the trajectory is pretty consistent. There might have been some puts and takes between 2023 and 2024, but the sort of nonlinearity. And I think the fundamental thing is it’s consistent with what we said at Analyst Day and that we’re investing $29 billion, which drives the rate fees growth of 8.1%, which drives the earnings growth. But because of the rate case timing, there’s some variability in there. And I think what we’re hopeful here is that this visual provides more clarity on how that – how those rate cases impact different years.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. Second question is, I think some people are trying to take those each year number from the Slide 9 and kind of taking, even though it’s an estimate to kind of adding that up. And when you do that by 25, you kind of maybe get to the lower half of the 25 range. Is that not what you should do because there’s estimates are just how – how should we take that?
Jeanne Jones:
Yes. I think what I would just say, the combination of growth over the years and we’re – and then the tilde [ph], I’m laughing because we’ve – you wouldn’t view us laugh at how much we spend over tilde versus other things here to show the visual. But what we’re trying to show here is that the combination of growth puts you squarely in the range. And so that’s what we want to reiterate through the investments of the $29 billion, what we’re confident we’re going to be squarely in the range.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. And then just on the, going back to the alternative minimum tax, I think one of the big issues of focus with treasury is the repairs tax and whether that could get included. If you could get the repairs tax addressed as part of this, would that – would that cover most of this $200 million because some companies are actually assuming that it will get fixed?
Jeanne Jones:
Yes, it would.
Steve Fleishman:
It would, okay.
Jeanne Jones:
It was substantially mitigated, yes.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay.
Chris Crane:
One thing Steve [indiscernible] with the IRS. So they march to their own big – our tech folks here are working with the industry and are really working on trying to communicate the necessity to move faster. But there can’t be a guarantees in the first quarter we have a good agreement on the approach.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. Great. Thank you very much.
Jeanne Jones:
Thanks Steve.
Operator:
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question will come from David Arcaro, Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
David Arcaro:
Hey, good morning. Thanks much for taking my questions and Chris best wishes from my end as well. As we look at the upcoming comment, multi-year plan, filing in January, I was just wanted to get a sense how comfortable and confident are you in managing that jurisdiction within a four-year plan going forward. Do you anticipate the parameters are going to be manageable to work under over that period?
Gil Quiniones:
This is Gil Quiniones, CEO of ComEd. We have to had a constructive relationship with stakeholders and other parties here in our jurisdiction. And what you will see from us is that our plans will squarely align with the goals of the Climate Equitable Jobs Act, and generally the energy environmental and economic policies of this state, so that will be our plan and as was noted in the earlier remarks, the details of such we will share in our next earning call.
David Arcaro:
Okay. Got it. Thanks. And then as we think about just the PECO electric earnings dynamic here, I was just wondering if as you’re planning out longer term, are there opportunities that you’re looking for or exploring to smooth out just the EPS contributions, whether it’s kind of shifting around expenses and cost saving opportunities? Are there longer term ways to smooth out the EPS growth trajectory?
Calvin Butler:
Good morning. This is Calvin. We’re always looking at ways to operate our business more efficiently and manage our costs because that’s our responsibility in delivering that value to our customers. And as we’ve talked about previously, affordability is a driving factor as we operate in all of our jurisdictions. And just remember, PECO is one of our highest – is our highest earning utility in the fleet and one of the highest earning across the country. And the constructive regulatory environment within Pennsylvanian is something that we’ve come to build on and have that relationship – collaborative relationship with the regulators. So as we continue to manage across our platform, we will always look at costs within the operating units as well as at the corporate center; so to answer your question directly, yes.
David Arcaro:
Okay, great. Thanks so much.
Operator:
Thank you. One moment – just a second for our next question. Our next question will come from Jeremy Tonet, JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Jeremy Tonet:
Hi, good morning.
Calvin Butler:
Good morning Jeremy.
Jeremy Tonet:
Just want to come back, I guess to 23 to 25 go drivers a little bit and anything else you could say as far as the way you can to minimize the headwinds for 2023 to operate against the plan and really just want to see what 30-year expectation was baked into the guidance there?
Jeanne Jones:
Sure, yes. So I’ll take that. As Calvin mentioned, I think the first and foremost is our continued focus on cost management. So we continue to do that. I think the other thing is we’re also looking to manage interest rate volatility. So when you think about our long-term financing, we use tools there like creation, hedging to dollar cost average into the long-term rates before the issuance on our short-term debt. We’ve got interest rate caps that protect against the upside but also retain the benefit should rates fall. So we’re doing all the things we can to control costs heading into 2023. And then in addition to that I think you asked about where we marked that, I think in the footnote it says as of 9.30 [ph], so we marked comment to the 9.30 rate for 2023 there.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. That’s helpful. Thanks. And maybe just one more question if I could, if you applied the new Illinois performance metrics historically to ComEd, how would it have scored and how do you think about the opportunity here going forward?
Jeanne Jones:
Yes. I would say there – the categories are somewhat consistent, but they’re also different enough, right? I don’t think you can back cast it. But what I would say is under the formula rate, one piece that’s very different as there was only downside risk and so we only had penalties under the formula rate. What’s constructive about this new path going forward is we now have the opportunity to do better. And as you heard Chris say, ComEd performing the best it ever has in its 100 years of operations. And so we’re excited about that. I think the other thing about the multi-year plan is the upfront alignment around the investments. And that was also there in the formula rate where we agreed that there would be grid modernization required and smart meters. And when you look at the results of that ComEd improve the reliability at 82%. So we like the ability to align upfront and we like the ability to get recognized should we perform well, which ComEd has done.
Gil Quiniones:
And Jeremy, I would add that keep in mind how those performing metrics were developed. They were done in collaboration and partnership with stakeholders. So we started the process of transparency in which ComEd as they go in to file their multiyear rate plan. That’s the value of working with your customers and your regulators to ensure that the investments that you are making are leading to the increased reliability, resilience and meeting the clean energy goals of the state as Gil pointed out. And I think that is the first step as we continue to build a process in a constructive regulatory environment.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. That’s helpful. I’ll leave it there. Thanks.
Jeanne Jones:
Thanks, Jeremy.
Calvin Butler:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our last question will come from Michael Lapides of Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Michael Lapides:
Thank you very much and Chris, obviously wish you well, wish you the best physically. Can – a cost question. When you benchmark yourselves whether benchmarking T&D, O&M or benchmarking at the corporate center, and I’m sure you still do a lot of that. Where do you think you do not score in the first quartile? Meaning from a cost management perspective? Where do you think whether it’s transmission, distribution, customer service, customer accounts or corporate G&A, where do you think the greatest opportunity set, not in the near term, but over a three to five, three to seven year period is to get more efficient? Like can you just kind of point directionally at where the opportunity sets may lie?
Jeanne Jones:
Yes. I think that it operates – we look at it across the board and we would say there’s opportunity everywhere, right? We want to drive to the lowest cost possible while maintaining safety and reliability. I think the where everyone can kind of see what we see is where it shows up in our affordability metric because O&M is such a lever when you think about driving affordability. And so when you look at our electric, whether it’s build or rate on any metric, we are below the national average, whether it’s percent of median income, whether it’s average rates, we look at our average rates and they’re 20% below the top 20 metropolitan cities. When you look on the gas side, our gas bills are some of the lowest in the states we operate. So I think that, that’s where you can see our history of continued financial discipline. But that’s important that we look across all areas, whether it’s the corporate center, power utilities, and I think it shows up best in those metrics.
Calvin Butler:
And Michael, what that jumps I’ll add to you is that in 2022, after the split, had a lot of talent go over to the other side to Constellation, and we continue to maintain our operational performance and metrics and continue to – at that time, it was one, keeping your O&M flat to below the rate of inflation and each of our operating companies continue to do that. And our corporate center stepped up because one of our commitments, and it continues to be one of our commitments when we announced the split that we would not let our corporate services ride as a result of that. And we were spending so much of that building over to the other side of the business. And we ended the year on the split to go back to our commissions and we met that regulatory compact. And that’s what I’m protest teams and the leadership and how they continue to dive in. And as I said earlier, costs will always remain a focus of ours and under Chris’ leadership, what you’ve seen is that Exelon has continued to raise the bar and meet that challenge. And I commit to you and we commit to you leadership team will continue to do that.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. And I guess one follow-up on the cost side because I was kind of probing for a little more granularity and kind of where when you benchmark performance you see the opportunity sets within the organization to kind of get the cost performance up. That’s kind of the follow-on if you can give a little detail. The other is we’re starting to see companies that have formed via years and years of combinations. Recognize that there’s a little bit of hidden value in corporate real estate. And given the fact that you serve a lot of urban markets, just curious how you’re thinking about the real estate footprint of the company and whether there’s value that maybe not necessarily being the owner or the lessor of all of that real estate. We’re seeing companies like one of your T&D neighbors in the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and we saw PG&E with their headquarters a year or so ago. Just curious how you’re looking at that opportunity set as well to both lower cost to improve the income statement but also to improve customer bills.
Calvin Butler:
Yes. We have and we continue to look at that. We are consolidating our control centers across our fleet. We continue to look at how in this new hybrid work environment in some of our areas, what does that mean for office space. And as part of our real estate portfolio and supply chain, we continue to drive those costs out of our business. But as we’ve said, affordability is going to remain a focus, and we’re going to look at every opportunity we have to drive that. And I’ll turn it over to Chris.
Chris Crane:
I think you’re used to us having the nuclear benchmarking book and how every nuclear operator shared their operational data and their cost data. UCG, we’ve got a lot of information from. And so we have very solid benchmarks. What we know is the national rates, affordability rates and we’ve continued to stay low those. But you’re not going to get the same level of disclosure from every facility like you got it from every plant. So the team has to work hard not only benchmarking ourselves against ourselves but also finding willing partners that will let us benchmark with them and benchmark with us. So we have a very high level of confidence Jeanne said it the supportability metrics and the total cost to the consumer that we’re far below the average benchmark, but the cost of putting a hole in the cost of transform just don’t get down to that level of detail or have that in the utilities. So we have to depend on our own challenges and depend on some that we can benchmark with and continue to drive these other indicators to ensure we’re providing the best service at the cheapest price.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Thank you.
Chris Crane:
So I think that’s the end of the call. I’d like to thank you for joining the call today. The team looks forward to seeing many of you at EEI later that month, this month. And with that, I’ll just close everything out. And thank you all.
Operator:
Thank you. This concludes today’s conference call. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect, and have a pleasant day.
Operator:
Hello, and welcome to Exelon's Second Quarter Earnings Call. My name is Dillan, and I'll be your event specialist today. [Operator Instructions] Please note that today's webcast is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to turn today's program over to Jeanne Jones, Senior Vice President of Corporate Finance. The floor is yours.
Jeanne Jones:
Thank you, Dillan. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our second quarter 2022 earnings conference call. Leading the call today are Chris Crane, Exelon's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Joe Nigro, Exelon's Chief Financial Officer. They're joined by other members of Exelon's senior management team who will be available to answer your questions following our prepared remarks. We issued our earnings release this morning along with the presentation, all of which can be found in the Investor Relations section of Exelon's website. The earnings release and other matters which we discuss during today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ from our forward-looking statements based on factors and assumptions discussed in today's material and comments made during this call. Please refer to today's 8-K and Exelon's other SEC filings for discussions of risk factors and other factors that may cause results to differ from management's projections, forecasts and expectations Today’s presentation also includes references to adjusted operating earnings and other non-GAAP measures. Please refer to the information contained in the appendix of our presentation and our earnings release for reconciliations between the non-GAAP measures and the nearest equivalent GAAP measures. We set about 45 minutes for today’s call. I’ll now turn the call over to Chris Crane, Exelon CEO.
Chris Crane:
Thanks Jeanne. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us. Before I get into the quarter, I want to spend a minute talking about the Inflation Reduction Act, a bill that's being considered in Congress. We appreciate those who have been working to position the United States as a leader in cleaner energy future and combating climate change. The bill extends tax benefits for familiar renewable technologies like solar and wind. It creates new ones for clean energy sources like nuclear and hydrogen. It also focuses on energy efficiencies, electrification and very importantly equity. These aspects of the bill will enable us transformation for customers while building a domestic clean energy sector. However, the bill also proposes a corporate minimum tax that could undermine the benefits of those incentives and slowly investment needed to make this transformation. The lower cost of clean energy technology and efficiency, their investments will be offset by higher taxes on companies making investments. With this language currently proposed, we and other utilities could face an increase in cash tax. While the bill has yet to pass in specifics could change as currently drafted, we could see an impact of incremental cash tax of approximately $300 million per year starting in 2023. The higher tax would ultimately limit our ability to invest in infrastructure needed to accommodate the clean energy our customers want in our jurisdictions of pursuing, but the situation remains very fluid. We continue to monitor the bill closely as it moves toward a vote in the Senate and beyond. In the meantime, we're working to advocate for language that better aligns incentives to achieve what we all want a cleaner, resilient, reliable and affordable grid, bridge that we are not getting [growth rate] Cleaner grid. Turning now to the quarter. Our first one since separating on April 1, I'm -- February 1. We continue to execute on our plan, focusing on operational and financial excellence to serve our customers in our communities while supporting their environmental and social equity needs. We earned $0.47 per share on a GAAP basis and $0.44 per share on a non- GAAP basis. We continue to expect our full range -- full year results in line with $2.18 to $2.32 range, we provide an on our Analyst Day. We've updated on previously announced plans to financing a small portion of our $29 million capital investment program with equity and Joe will provide additional details on our financing plan. Along with his commentary on the quarterly results. We're on track to limit the number of rate cases we have this year. In May, Delmarva Power & Light Maryland filed his first multiyear plan covering investments from ‘23 to ‘25 period. The filing highlights improvement in Delmarva’s reliability and customer service in Maryland. ‘21 marked its second straight year of record setting outage frequency performance. We look forward to building on the successes of the multiyear plans we have in place and leverage lessons learned to deliver value for Delmarva Power, Maryland customers. In Illinois, ComEd continues to work on a new rate setting process, including proposed performance metrics. We expect a final order by the end of the third quarter. In addition, on July 1st, ComEd filed its first beneficial electrification plan with the Illinois Commerce Commission, as required by the CEGA, ComEd proposes spending approximately $300 million from ’23 to ‘25. The plan is designated to reduce barriers to beneficial electrification, including barriers to electric vehicles like adoption of costs and charging availability. And the plan approaches and emphasizes equity and environmental justice as we implement. Our plan will ensure ComEd’s investment strategy delivers on the CEGA’s groundbreaking environmental and social equity goals. As a reminder, ComEd’s first distribution rate case under the new rate case structure will be filed in early 2023 for rate effective in 2024. And of course we continue to support our communities and provide transparency to stakeholders on environmental, social and governance practices. We recently published our ninth Annual Corporate Sustainability report, our first as a TOD only utility. It details all the ways in which Exelon is a responsible steward of the energy transition and delivers sustainable value for our jurisdictions. For instance, there's many programs going on, but for instance, it discusses our STEM activities, which in our 30 years this summer hosting approximately 180 young women in urban centers. I have been joining each of the three academies to talk with the participants. And in May, the Exelon Foundation selected nine young women that have graduated from our STEM program academies to receive a scholarship for the college education totaling $1 million. It's quite impactful for those young women, and it was quite impactful to be able to speak to them directly and tell them what they have just achieved. So I kind of broke down when they did it, but it was really powerful. The report also highlights $200 million climate change investment initiatives, a program that supports startups with potential to have wide scale impact on climate change risks. In mid-July, Exelon, an Exelon Foundation selected nine startups to receive funding in the third round of the program. It's a 10 year program, these companies’ business models address climate related products and services like EV charging repaired, carbon accounting platforms and other focus areas. We're very proud of the work that all our employees do every day to support the customers in the communities. And you can find all the details in our sustainability report. Switching to slide 5, let me talk about our operational performance for the quarter. We continued to provide safe reliable service for our customers. From a reliability perspective, we've seen improvement from the first quarter. We now are in top quartile for outage duration across all jurisdictions, and ComEd, PHI scored in top decile. ComEd delivered its best CAIDI performance on record despite severe storms in June, we met the restoration targets early restoring 80% of 125,000 impacted customers in less than a day. And ComEd’s distribution automation investments avoided almost 70,000 additional customer interruptions. Our outage frequency performance remains at top high levels, with ComEd achieving top decile. On a safety front, PHI improved the top quartile. But we did have a slip at PECO into the second quartile. We're doing additional training to address the primary drivers of the underperformance at both PECO and BGE. As always, safety remains our number one priority, BGE, ComEd and PECO continue to earn top quartile customer satisfaction performance through the second quarter. And lastly, we'll maintain -- we maintain the top decile performance in odor response across our three gas utilities. PHI continues its streak of perfect execution responding to all gas odors reported less than one hour for the first half of 2022. And this is very important for us to maintain confidence in the system, our gas distribution system that we can find, fix and repair anything that comes up so it's really good to see. Now let me turn it over to Joe and he can provide the financial update.
Joe Nigro :
Thank you Chris and good morning, everyone. Today, I will cover our second quarter results, our quarterly financial updates and highlight several ways in which our utilities and power and economic health and wellbeing the diverse communities in which we serve. I'll begin on slide 6 where we show our quarter-over-quarter adjusted operating earnings waterfall. Exelon continuing operations were at $0.44 a share in Q2 this year versus $0.36 a share in Q2 of last year. As a reminder, the prior year second quarter reflects a $0.09 impact for discontinued operations adjustment for certain corporate overhead costs that were previously allocated to our generation segments that are required by accounting rules to be presented as part of Exelon’s continuing operations. As a reminder, these costs were paid for by generation and are not indicative of our corporate overheads post operation. Additional information including the full year impact of the discontinued operations adjustments on 2021 results can be found in the recast 10-K and which we filed on June 30. Excluding the $0.09 impact quarter-over-quarter of the discontinued operations accounting adjustment for service company allocations, Exelon’s second quarter results were a $1.00 lower than the second quarter of 2021. We did benefit from higher distribution rates associated with completed rate cases, including higher Treasury rates impacting Commonwealth Edison's distribution returns. But this was offset by higher depreciation and amortization, bad debt, timing of other costs utilities, and the impact of rising rates on the debt at the holding company. As Chris mentioned, we continue to reaffirm our 2022 EPS guidance range of $2.18 to $2.32 per share. Our year-to-date operating earnings results of $1.08 per share, are exactly in line with the historical percentage of full year earnings, in which we outlined at Analyst Day. Growth for the balance of the year will occur primarily in Q4, as we continue to realize the benefits of higher distribution and transmission revenue, including the net impact of higher Treasury's on ComEd. It will also include the absence of unfavorable weather and storms from a previous year, and the timing of taxes and O&M spend that impacted us in the first two quarters of this year. Any updates to guidance will be provided on our next call for Q3. Moving on to slide 7, looking at our utility returns on a consolidated basis, we expect to be in our consolidated 9% to 10% target by year end. As of the second quarter our trailing 12- month ROE of 8.8% was slightly below our targeted range. As we discussed on our last call, the timing of equity infusion supporting capital investments across all utilities outpaced the higher earnings, driven primarily by distribution and transmission rates. We remain focused on delivering stronger returns at the utilities, which the semi investment we make on behalf of consumers. Turning to slide 8, it was another quiet quarter on the regulatory front, with one notable rate case development. On May 19. Delmarva Power filed its first multiyear plan with the Maryland PSC, the third of its kind in the state proceeded only by its sister utilities of BGE and PEPCO. The filing outlines the company's plans to invest hundreds of millions of dollars in the local energy grid and other customer experience improvement during the three year period from 2023 to 2025. As we've noted before, the multiyear plans approach allows us to align with all stakeholders where the company is focusing its investments. Among the hundreds of projects, the plan specifically includes investments in the electric distribution system to continue to improve reliability and customer service, advanced technologies to modernize the distribution system and provide tools to assist customers in managing their usage. We expect an order by the end of the year. We also have three vacations that are still in progress. Delmarva, Delaware has a gas case with rates going into effect on August 14, subject to refund and an expected decision in the first quarter of ‘23. Additionally, we expected decision on the PECO gas case in the fourth quarter this year, and our ComEd’s final formula rate filings in December. Each case is proceeding in line with our expectations. Overall, we are pleased with the progress in advancing progressive regulatory designs that benefit our customers ease regulatory burden and improve visibility for our utilities. As a reminder, we expect nearly 100% of our rate base growth will be covered by alternative mechanisms by the end of our planning periods. And more details on the rate cases can be found on slide 18 to 21, in the appendix of our earnings presentation. On slide 9, I want to spend moment discussing the work that our utilities do to partner with local state and federal agencies, as well as community groups to ensure we are maximizing opportunities for our customers to benefit from the various build assistance programs available to them. With the challenges presented in the last couple years by the pandemic, and recent inflationary pressures on customers, there have been increases in the funding available to support our most vulnerable customers. For instance, the LIHEAP program it run since 2017 by $400 million to $3.8 billion in total. However, the percentage of households taking advantage of this assistance has remained flat nationwide, implying additional opportunity to support our customers that has gone untapped. Our utilities with their capabilities around billing and customer service, have stepped up to this challenge, looking for innovative ways to support the governmental agencies and ensure more eligible customers are taking advantage of the programs available. And I'd like to touch on just a couple of examples. ComEd introduced the Community Energy Assistance Ambassador program, whereby it offered employment to over 100 local residents to serve as trusted partners to educate customers about financial assistance, as well as energy efficiency. With support from these ambassadors, ComEd was able to expand its reach into hard to engage communities, distribute more than 11,000 Energy Efficiency kits and connect customers to a record $146 million in financial assistance, representing a 95% increase in the number of grants customers received relative to 2020. Of the PHI utilities, ACE Delmarva and PEPCO also took advantage of local outreach strategies, leveraging a data driven approach to ensure they were targeting the highest opportunity areas. Furthermore, they also partnered closely with the relevant governmental agencies to identify and reduce logistical pain points, around applications, eligibility verification and disbursement. These efforts resulted in customers securing $125 million of energy bill assistance, an increase of 70% from 2012. I can say similar approaches were also employed at our PECO, BGE operating companies, and Exelon efforts across all utilities resulted in over $450 million of funding, making its way to more than 650,000 customers, which lowers arrearages and bus bills for all consumers. This level of funding represents a 22% increase in the assistance we were able to connect to our customers relative to the prior year. In fact, these efforts were recognized by EI who selected Exelon as an Edison Awards finalist in 2022, specifically for the innovative ways we helped our customers obtain this assistance. Connecting customers to financial support is just one of the ways in which Exelon is ensuring its customers are making the transition to a cleaner and more resilient grid in an affordable and equitable manner. If I move on to slide 10, during the second quarter, we continue to invest capital for the benefit of our customers and are on track to meet our $6.9 million commitment in ’22. These investments will improve reliability, and resiliency, enhance service for our customers and personally prepare the grid for a clean energy future. Today, I would like to talk about the impressive effort led by BGE to replace a half century old underground underwater circuit nearing the end of its useful life in the heart of Baltimore Harbor. BGE’s Key Crossing Reliability initiative installed a double circuit 230 KV overhead electric transmission lines across the two mile wide Patapsco River. Proactive outreach and early engagement of stakeholders significantly reduced permitting durations and allowed BGE to incorporate feedback into the project's design. That benefit benefiting both BGE and its customers. To reduce durations allowed overhead construction to begin in May of 2020 and complete 15 months early. The transmission monopoles were installed, including two of the tallest towers on the continent, which contemplated adequate clearance for cargo and cruise ships entering the Port of Baltimore today and into the future. Rate reliability improvements stemming from the key crossings initiatives were made possible by the estimated 300 to 350 talented women and men who contributed to this project and all the constituents engaged in this -- 0:24:28.9 .each fader have BGE opted to replace the segment with overhead transmission lines, because the environmental impact was minimal, and it was cost effective and better supported the Port of Baltimore shipping operations, while having the greatest potential for local and domestic job creation. This project perfectly embodies our mission of providing clean, reliable, affordable and innovative solutions to all our key stakeholders. Lastly, I want to provide an update on our balance sheet, which we committed to keeping strong to support the investments made for the benefit of our customers and communities. As we announced in February of 2021, and reaffirmed as recently as last quarter’s call, we plan to issue $1 billion of equity in the holding company by 2025 as part of a balanced funding strategy. We are establishing a $1 billion ATM program. And we plan to issue $500 million of equity in 2022 leveraging either the ATM program or at one time offering or some combination of both methods. We will complete the remaining $500 million in 2023 to 2025. And we commit to continuing to update you as we make progress on these points. Beyond our equities complaints, as we noted in the first quarter, we have completed our long-term debt financings at corporate for the year, there is no change to our expectation and our consolidated corporate metrics will average 13% to 14%. At both S&P and Moody's over the 2022 to ‘24 period. And with a number of financings completed this quarter at our utilities, we continue to benefit from robust demand for that debt backed by extremely strong credit ratings that are operating. As you've heard from Chris, we are monitoring the Inflation Reduction Act, and its potential impact on cash [Inaudible] and tax. We will continue to update you on that as we can. Thank you, and I'll turn back the call to Chris for his closing remarks.
Chris Crane:
Thanks Joe. And turning to slide 12, I’ll close by reiterating that Exelon’s value propositions, its position in the sector, Exelon is a premier TOD only company in the nation consistent of delivery and reliability results. There are several key attributes that distinguish us. We have an unmatched size and scale leveraging a common platform across all our utilities, we consistently and reliably offer best-in-class operation performance. This drives a superior customer experience and facilitates a positive regulatory engagement in our jurisdictions. Our purpose of powering a clean, brighter future for our customers and communities is how important ESG principles are to our company. And we maintain a strong balance sheet that drives investment needed to sustain our success. The net results in our operating, our opportunity to invest the $29 billion of capital over the next four years for our customers, with an annualized 6% to 8% operating earnings growth through 2025. And we expect to pay out 60% of those operating earnings each year to our stakeholders and shareholders. Thank you for your time. Now we'll turn it over to Q&A.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Shahriar Pourreza from Guggenheim Partners.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Hey, good morning, guys. Chris, just on the Inflation Reduction Act, just given your comments, any thoughts on prospects for ultimate passage? I think [senators] stance is still unclear and we may get a vote this week. And Joe if the 15% AMT passes as it stands, would you be sort of able to update to past as it stands? Would you be sort of able to update the financing plan by the EI timeframe and just remind us the multiyear plans? Would they adjust for the tax changes on the fly or would you require separate proceed in most jurisdictions? Thanks.
Chris Crane:
Yes, I'll take the first half and let Joe take the second half. We have been working with our Head of Federal Regulatory Affairs, Melissa Levinson, who's in a room here. I’ll ask her if she wants to add anything after I speak. We have done significant amount of outreach, not only as a company, but as an industry to make sure that the message is heard that there is a technical fix that there's a potential or other methods. But I don't think we all know enough. Now, it's very fluid. As you talk to the senators, they're getting up to speed as we're getting up to speed. So it came quick, it came out of the closet. And we have to continue to dive in with the EI and as company to communicate the unintended consequences of where we're at. Melissa, anything else?
A – Unidentified Company Representative :
I think it remains very fluid, we know that senators are working to review the bill, and understand the impacts. And expectations are that they're going to try to vote on the bill, but the end things remain fluid.
Chris Crane:
Did I misspeak on the technical fix?
A – Unidentified Company Representative :
I think as we look at the bill, we continue to talk with the senators about potentially unintended consequences of how the tax might be applied, and its impact on our ability to continue the robust investments that we're making. And so we are talking with them about some of the tax policy that has existed over time that enabled us to cost effectively and affordably invest in and talk about ways to look at the way that the minimum tax is currently structured and see what changes can be made.
Chris Crane:
Thanks Melissa. Joe?
Joe Nigro :
Yes. And I'll pick up the second two questions, Shahriar. Good morning. The 15% passage as you mentioned, we wouldn't expect to update our financing plans by EI, our normal cadence is that we would do that on the Q4 call after the first of the year. The reason we do that is it gives us time to get through our year end budgeting process. And mark things to that point, whether it's treasuries, pension, et cetera, et cetera. And we would be very transparent at that point. As for your last question, go ahead.
Shahriar Pourreza:
No, sorry, Joe, you go, please.
Joe Nigro :
Shahriar, as for your last question because of multiyear plans are just for tax changes, I think what we would say it's unclear at this point how these taxes will flow through to our customers, as this, obviously as Melissa and Chris just have talked about this situation is very fluid. As it's currently written, we've reached the threshold for the tax at the consolidated level. And so we're working through all this real time.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Got it. And then just lastly, Joe, a little bit of confusion, I guess, this morning around the language around the equity plans for ‘22. I guess what a sort of the puts and takes of doing it via the ATM versus just a pure block, I guess. What are you trying to walk through? Why not just do an ATM? Thanks.
Joe Nigro :
Yes, I think there's a couple of answers to that, Shahriar. I think the first thing is if we were having this conversation, the first of the year, we might have even had a different view with that but that’s market conditions change, we have to change with it. I, the way interest rates move, for example. So what we've tried to do is be transparent that we're putting a $1 billion ATM in place between now and ‘25, which is what we told you the equity needs were, we're going to do $500 million of it this year. But I think it's important for us to maintain flexibility. And that's why we're saying that we would do it in probably the one or two ways that I mentioned.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Paul Zimbardo from Bank of America.
Paul Zimbardo:
Hi, thank you. Good morning. Just following up on the IRA and minimum tax. So is the right way to think about it that you could probably absorb that reduction in cash flows just looking at that 12% trigger versus your guidance range or could we think about that as potentially increasing equity and adds.
Joe Nigro :
Yes, we, as I said this is obviously a very fluid situation and we're not ready to commit to either of those. It's all gets tied up. And if this were to pass in its current form this would all get tied up in our end year planning process. What I can say, though is, on the Analyst Day, we committed to use 16% earnings CAGR through 2025. And we're still committed to that.
Paul Zimbardo:
Okay, great. Thank you. And then you mentioned the performance base rates, we've been watching in ComEd. Do you embed any kind of benefit and not just in Illinois, but across the footprint from potential positive incentives under the performance base rates at that CAGR midpoint you mentioned?
Joe Nigro :
Yes, no, in our plan, we don't embed any incremental benefits from performance.
Chris Crane:
But strategically tailwind, we are heading -- we're trying to head in that direction.
Calvin Butler:
We are. So as you mentioned, we've been working with stakeholders and filed our performance based metrics outline and goal, which would add if ComEd is able, we were confident to sit back and afford reliable and electricity to the customers, as well as helped the state achieve its goals. The reliability metrics, as outlined could add 60 basis points.
Chris Crane:
And we also provided an alternative to the commission if they wanted to consider adding up to 40 basis points, but all based on ComEd rising to the standards that have been outlined in collaboration with the stakeholders.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Steven Fleishman from Wolfe Research.
Steven Fleishman:
Yes, thanks. Good morning. Hey, Chris, could you just give, I’ll calculator this later, but just if you have handy $300 million of cash flow potentially impacted by the IRA? What is that in terms of FFO to debt percentage?
Chris Crane:
Yes, Joe, you want to --
Joe Nigro :
Yes, Steve, whatever it is, I don't think we're ready to get into that. Because what the way we look at this is not in isolation. We have to go through year end planning process and see what if, what portion of this we can offset with other actions that we can take across the enterprise. And then net of that what falls to the impact of on our metrics. And obviously, this is so fluid, we haven't gone through that detail process.
Chris Crane:
There's cost cutting, there's adjustment and project schedules, there's multiple ways to avoid any impact on our metrics. And that's what we'll be focused on when we figure out where this thing is going. What we've heard is, by the end of the week, potentially over the weekend, things could happen. And once we get the final, we'll be able to evaluate, and we can put the numbers in and start to see what we can do for mitigation. But we want to keep our capital spending plan where it's, our growth where it's at for reliability, and affordability, while we're maintaining a system that will take on the renewable. So there's a few balls in the air that we'll have to juggle, but we would rather have the fix to the bill. So we're not having to juggle this, but we'll see how we prevail as an industry as we go forward.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay, and then second question is just in terms of, Joe, your thought process on the equity issuance timing, and doing half of it in kind of the first year, as opposed to just spread out? Could you maybe just give some flavor? Why kind of you decided that?
Joe Nigro :
Yes, I think, Steve, a couple of reasons. This is the first window we have open post separation. We had to file the updated 10-K at the end of June, which we did, and then we went into blackout. So, as we previously disclosed, we executed some short-term debt, at the time of separation that we're now planning to use the equity to pay down and that's all part of the balanced funding strategies, to continue to support the balance sheet. We went through an evaluation of the type of equity issue and as I said earlier, it’s still very fluid due to changing market conditions and we want to maintain as much flexibility as we can and that's why we're saying we're putting an ATM in place. But we do have the flexibility to do this one time only.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of David Arcaro from Morgan Stanley.
David Arcaro:
Hi, thanks so much for taking my question. Could you maybe just speak to as you look out over the EPS growth forecast period, your current thoughts on maintaining that linearity of annual kind of cadence and achieving the growth each year through the forecast?
Joe Nigro :
Yes. Thanks David for the question. And good morning, we talked about this, we're confident in that 16% growth rate that we've given you through 2025 as relates to earnings. We've said there is some variability between the years and this really driven by three factors, right. One is, ComEd’s, the distribution return through 2023 is still tied to treasuries, which obviously, we don't control that mark-to-market exercise. And that's priced on a daily average throughout the year. So it's continuing to obviously change. PECO is on a three year rate case cadence. And the way that cadence works is they're higher earnings in the early years than they are later years. And that has some variability. And then lastly, we're transitioning to different ratemaking in Illinois, 2024 and beyond. And we have to make an assumption, what that looks like. And we've done that, and we're comfortable with ranges around that, and that 16% growth rate, but that drives some variability as well.
David Arcaro:
Okay, got it. Thanks. That's helpful. And on the just the, are we, so ticked down slightly in this quarter, could you just refresh us on the confidence level of net rising in the back half of this year? And then any latest thoughts as to when you might be able to achieve something in the middle, like 9.5% ROE level as you look out in the forecast?
Joe Nigro :
Yes, I think the reason you see the lower ROEs early in the year, and you saw the same trend last year is, it's tied to the equity, we're infusing into utilities, we do, a majority share of our debt offerings early in the year across the enterprise. And as such, to keep those capital structures in line, we infuse the equity, which over the course of the year takes time for ROEs to catch up. And that's really the big driver. So we're confident, we target 9% to 10%, for all of our utilities, we're confident at year end will be in that range, on average across the utilities.
Chris Crane:
The key on this is the rate cases, as Joe said, and we've seen downward pressure in other jurisdictions on that 9.5% to 10%. So we have to work through that and explain with the higher interest rate environment. We need to be able to move that back up as we're working through our rate cases. So it's reversing the trend of what we've seen in the industry to accommodate the interest rate rise and it's very quick to come down when interest rates come down. It's a crawl back when interest rates go back up. But that's what we're focusing on.
Calvin Butler:
Chris, if I can add, this is Calvin, David, I would also point out, Joe alluded to ComEd earnings being tied to the Treasury. But understand ComEd is also one of the lowest in earnings of any utility that impacts that 9% to 10%, average. So as ComEd begins to transition out of the formula rate, you will see that have a greater impact on the collective of utilities. And it's also important to note, when we talk about the multiyear plans, those three year plans that we've been put in place in Maryland, as well as in the District of Columbia. That's a process that is done in collaboration with the stakeholders and commission. So when we talk about investments across the utilities, that transparency is giving stability to those ROEs and also the growth projection that Joe talks about that 6% to 8% a year. That's how we feel confident that we can come in here and tell you what that growth plan looks like because it is done in collaboration with our commissioners and all of our stakeholders.
Operator:
Our last question comes from the line of Durgesh Chopra from Evercore.
Durgesh Chopra:
Hey, guys, thank you. I'll keep it quick. Joe, I just want to go back to the $300 million per year cash impact from the alternative minimum tax, just given that your cash effective tax rate is going up each year. So I'm looking at this slide, which shows 2022, this is slide 16, in the appendix, I believe, which shows the effective gas tax rate going from like less than a 0.5% to 4% in 2023. As I'm thinking about ’24. ‘25, shouldn't that $300 million cash tax impact be actually lower given that you're going to pay some cash taxes, just by the effective tax rate going up naturally in the plan?
Joe Nigro :
I think there's a lot of variables that go into that equation, or maybe we, given the size of our enterprise, and the number of operating companies we have, obviously, there's a lot of things that move around in a given year with taxes. I mean, we see that each and every year, and then quite frankly, each and every quarter. So this is very fluid, the situation we're dealing with as blow smoking. Chris alluded to here, there's still -- we still go to get to the goal line on this and see where it plays itself out. I'm not going to sit here and commit you to say it's going to do this or do that. We're giving you an indicative view what we think that impact looks like over, our planning horizon that we've disclosed.
Operator:
Thank you. That concludes our Q&A session. At this time, I'd like to turn the call back over to Chris Crane, President and CEO for closing remarks.
Chris Crane:
Yes, thank you all for joining the call today. We look forward to continue to execute on a plan. And with that I'll close up the call and thank you for your continued support.
Operator:
Thanks to all our participants for joining us today. This concludes our presentation. You may now disconnect. Have a good day.
Operator:
Hello, and welcome to Exelon's First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. My name is Olivia, and I'll be your event specialist today. [Operator Instructions] Please note that today's webcast is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] It is now my pleasure to turn today's program over to Jeanne Jones, Senior Vice President of Corporate Finance. The floor is yours.
Jeanne Jones :
Thank you, Olivia. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our first quarter 2022 earnings conference call. Leading the call today are Chris Crane, Exelon's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Joe Nigro, Exelon's Chief Financial Officer. They're joined by other members of Exelon's senior management team who will be available to answer your questions following our prepared remarks. We issued our earnings release this morning along with the presentation, all of which can be found in the Investor Relations section of Exelon's website. The earnings release and other matters which we discuss during today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ from our forward-looking statements based on factors and assumptions discussed in today's material and comments made during this call. Please refer to today's 8-K and Exelon's other SEC filings for discussions of risk factors and other factors that may cause results to differ from management's projections, forecasts and expectations. Today's presentation also includes references to adjusted operating earnings and other non-GAAP measures. Please refer to the information contained in the appendix of our presentation and our earnings release for reconciliations between the non-GAAP measures and the nearest equivalent GAAP measures. We've scheduled 45 minutes for today's call. I'll now turn the call over to Chris Crane, Exelon's CEO.
Chris Crane :
Thanks, Jeanne, and good morning to everybody and thanks for joining us. We're pleased to host our first post-separation earnings call as the nation's premier T&D utility company. We closed, as you all know, on the separation on February 1, delivering on our commitment to close within the first quarter of 2022. The transition has really unlocked significant value for our shareholders. In the time of announcing a year ago through mid-April this year, the total shareholder return was 76%, far exceeding the UTY Index and the S&P. At the same time, we continue to demonstrate our reliability focused on operational and financial excellence. We earned $0.49 per share on a GAAP basis and $0.64 a share on a non-GAAP basis -- non-GAAP basis. We also completed a successful bond deal for our holding company with attractive pricing, showing the value of our strong balance sheet even in a challenging market. Joe will cover the financial highlights in his presentation shortly. On the regulatory front, it is a quiet year, but we made progress in several jurisdictions to support our investment plans on behalf of our customers. This includes a settlement in Delmarva, Maryland in the electric case, the gas filing for Delmarva Delaware and PECO and our last distribution filing under the ComEd distribution formula rate. In addition, ComEd continues to work with the stakeholders on the CEJA, last year's landmark clean energy legislation that continues to support what our customers and our stakeholders want. It's a clear path to Illinois electric utilities to transition into a rate setting process while we're ensuring the stake and support its ambitious climate goals and its social equity goals. We feel comfortable in our process going forward. ComEd has proposed performance metrics plan before the ICC which includes 8 performance metrics and 13 tracking metrics. As we adjust our proposal for stakeholder feedback, we're optimistic that the metrics approved by the commission will support continued improve in our -- improvement in our top-tier service for customers. We expect the final order by the end of the third quarter. There's a lot of work to be done between here and there. ComEd's also participating in the stakeholder process in a multiyear integrated grid plan workshop. The plan will help ComEd's long-term investment planning process and priorities with the exception of the regulatories -- regulators in CEG pay. This is in preparation for our filing in early 2023 for rates effective in 2024. Joe will cover that case in a little bit more detail. Beyond the financial performance and operational performance, we continue to focus on our communities and the transition to a cleaner grid. We joined the DOE's better climate challenge in February, reinforcing our Path to Clean commitment to reduce Scope 1 and Scope 2 greenhouse gases by 50% by 2023 -- 2030. As part of the HBCU corporate scholars program announced last fall, we have 24 students who were awarded $2.4 million in scholarships. This program will support the next generation to lead our clean energy future. It's astounding to sit with these young students and see their passion on where they want to go in the future. We are funding support for small business development in underserved communities in our service territory for more than 65 workforce-type programs where we train and make individuals capable of coming into our areas ready for work. And our fifth annual STEM Academy will be held this summer in Philadelphia, Chicago, D.C, Baltimore area with approximately the goal now is 60 women -- young women to be involved. Moving to our operations on Slide 5. We're delivering safe, reliable service across the jurisdictions. Performance has remained solid and outage durations and frequency remain our top priority. Our utilities are working together to improve in specific areas. As you saw this weekend, on the Mid-Atlantic utilities, the storms continue to intensify and the duration continues to be lengthened, but our operations teams are really focused on that in continuing to drive standards of construction reliability up. ComEd's reliability performance was top decile in both CAIDI and SAIFI, delivering on the highest first quarter reliability to customers for end-of-year earn record. We made improvements in OSHA performance, bringing PECO up to top quartile, but we really are not satisfied with anything but the safest experience for our employees and our communities, and we still have work to go on that. There is no shunning that away. It's a top priority of all our operations towards. BGE and ComEd and PECO all achieved top quartile and customer satisfaction through the quarter. In all 3 of our utilities that distribute gas, we're in top decile on order response. PHI had perfect execution, responding to all its gas orders in less than 1 hour. And that's a very large service territory acreage-wise, so being able to roll the trucks and the employees out is a good feat that they've achieved. Joe will highlight some of our investments we're making to help deliver this performance. And with that, I'll turn it over to Joe for you to hear the financial update and some of the strategic actions we're taking.
Joe Nigro :
Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone. Today, I'll cover our first quarter results, as Chris mentioned, our quarterly financial updates, and as he noted, highlight several areas in which our utilities are making investments for the benefits of our customers. If I start on Slide 6, we show our quarter-over-quarter adjusted operating earnings walk. Exelon's continuing operations earned $0.64 in Q1 of 2022 versus $0.55 in Q1 of '21. Let me start by reminding you the impacts to Exelon's financials following the separation. As disclosed in our 8-K issued on February 25, beginning with the 10-Q to be filed today for the first quarter of 2022, we are presenting our former Generation segment as discontinued operations for the 1-month period in 2022 prior to the separation and for the 3 months ended March 31, 2021. Financial results for the utilities in the holding company are reported as continuing operations. As a reminder, accounting rules require that certain corporate overhead costs previously allocated to generation be presented as part of the Exelon's continuing operations. I want to note that these costs were paid for by generation and they are not indicative of our corporate overhead post separation. The impact of this business services company allocation adjustment to Exelon's continuing operations is $0.09 for the first quarter of '21 and $0.02 for the one month in 2022 on an after-tax basis. You will continue to see this adjustment for '21 as we present prior year quarters. However, this adjustment only impacts Q1 for 2022. Excluding the $0.07 quarter-over-quarter impact of the discontinued operations accounting adjustment for BFC allocations, Exelon's first quarter results were $0.02 higher than the first quarter of '21. The improvement from '21 was primarily driven by higher transmission and distribution rates associated with completed rate cases, partially offset by depreciation and amortization and stores at the utilities and the impact of rising interest rates on debt at the holding company. Our operating earnings results of $0.64 for the first quarter were in line with the percentage of full year earnings we shared with you in the January 2022 Analyst Day presentation. Turning to our full year outlook. We reaffirm our 2022 earnings guidance range of $2.18 to $2.32 per share. While we have benefited from rising treasury rates on ComEd's distribution return on equity, like most companies, we were also impacted by higher interest expense in our debt, in particular at our holding company. As we normally do, we will update guidance on our Q3 call. As a reminder, we have committed to a long-term operating earnings growth target of 6% to 8% through 2025, off the midpoint of guidance for '21 communicated on the Analyst Day. Moving to Slide 7. Looking at our utility returns on a consolidated basis, we expect to be in our consolidated 9% to 10% target range by year-end. As of the first quarter, our trailing 12-month return on equity of 8.9% dipped slightly below our range. Despite higher earnings driven primarily by distribution and transmission rates, the earnings were outpaced by timing of equity infusions across all our utilities to support capital investments. We remain focused on delivering stronger returns at the utilities which sustain the investment we make on behalf of our customers. Turning to Slide 8. There were some important developments on the regulatory front since the beginning of the year. First, on January 14, Delmarva Power filed an application with the Delaware Public Service Commission seeking a $14.5 million increase in gas distribution base rates, reflecting an ROE of 10.3%. Delmarva Power customers continue to benefit from the major enhancements that are being made to the local natural gas system. Key projects to strengthen and create additional capacity in the company's natural gas delivery system have also been critical to meet growing load. As permitted by Delaware law, Delmarva Power will implement full allowable rates on August 14, subject to refund. Second, Delmarva Maryland received a final order for its distribution electric rate case on March 2. The Maryland Commission approved the proposed settlement order by the Chief Public Utility Law Judge that recommended a $12.5 million increase in annual electric distribution rates, reflecting an ROE of 9.6%. Third, on March 31, PECO filed a gas distribution rate case with the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission. PECO is seeking a revenue increase of $82 million to support significant investments in critical infrastructure which will modernize and enhance the natural gas system and allow us to continue delivering safe and reliable natural gas service and reduce methane emissions. In addition, the filing proposes enhanced energy efficiency and customer safety programs, increase customer assistance with additional low-income funding and the continuation of small business grant program. We expect an order in the fourth quarter of 2022. Finally, ComEd filed its annual distribution formula rate update with the Illinois Commerce Commission on April 15, seeking a $199 million increase to electric distribution base rates that resulted in a $2.20 increase in the average monthly residential bill starting January 2023. While ComEd is requesting a delivery charge increase, there will be offsets. Specifically, when taking into account higher energy prices based on the recent procurement auction and forwards, offset by lower capacity prices, the carbon mitigation credits and accelerated tax benefit, we currently estimate a net reduction to the average monthly residential bill. ComEd's residential customer rates next January are expected to be at least 10% below the average of rates in the 10 largest U.S. metropolitan areas. In its formula -- in its final formulary filing, ComEd's request supports investments needed to sustain the record level reliability performance for residential and commercial customers and helps advance the goals of the Climate and Equitable Jobs Act passed in Illinois to address climate change, create clean energy jobs, ensure equity and prioritize a just transition to a green economy. We expect to receive an order by early December. We continue to have constructive regulatory relationships across our jurisdictions and are working with our regulators, our states and our communities to support their clean energy and climate goals. As a reminder, we expect nearly 100% of our rate base growth will be covered by alternative recovery mechanisms by the end of our planning period. More details on these rate cases can be found on Slides 17 through 20 of the appendix. Slide 9 provides an update on how Exelon's utilities are working with key stakeholders to help our customers and jurisdictions achieve their decarbonization goals reliably, affordably and equitably. Electric vehicle adoption is unquestionably a key enabler for reducing emissions as the transportation sector currently represents about 1/3 of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. Our jurisdictions alone are targeting 4.2 million electric vehicles on the road over the next 25 years, a twentyfold increase relative to the number of EVs in our service territories as of the end of 2021. Given our competitive rates, Electric vehicles also provide our customers the ability to save money. Using the Department of Energy's e-Gallon calculation, the annual cost of an electric vehicle is approximately $1.30 per gallon compared to the price of gasoline at $4.30 per gallon. On average, customers in Exelon service territories could save more than $1,000 per year in fuel cost by switching to an EV. Utilizing Exelon's EV time of use rates could offer an additional 11% savings per year. And while we recognize there are adoption costs and other barriers to entry, we value the role we play in bridging social equity gaps. Working with our jurisdictions, we bridge those gaps through programs like those authorized in the Climate Solutions Now Act in Maryland, which allows utilities to partner with local school boards and offer up to $50 million in rebates to incentivize the purchase and operation of electric school buses. And the benefits are not inclusive to EV buyers. As more energy use applications leverage the grid, fixed costs will naturally be lower for customers who have not yet made the switch to electric vehicles. As our states make this transition over the coming decades, Exelon is poised to support our customers through investments such as upgraded distribution circuitry, substations and ultimately transmission. Transforming the grid over this period to meet the increased standards required by EVs, along with other expanded and innovative uses of the grid, will require significant investment. Our Path to Clean encourages customers and communities to reduce their emissions through access to clean energy solutions. When establishing our goals, the focus was not solely on the environment, but also on equity, affordability, reliability and sustaining our communities. The role we are playing in the transformation of the transportation sector is a great example of this commitment. Moving to Slide 10. During the first quarter, we continued to invest capital for the benefit of our customers and are on track to meet our $6.9 billion commitment for 2022. These investments will improve reliability and resiliency, enhance service for our customers and prepare the grid for a clean energy future. As we have done on past earnings calls, I'd like to feature 2 projects within our portfolio of utility investments. The first is Pepco's Harvard substation rebuild. This substation is part of a larger capital grid project and is currently under construction with expected completion in 2023. This $220 million project will renovate aging infrastructure originally installed over a century ago to improve grid reliability and resiliency. The rebuild also expands regional transmission capacity, supporting future load growth in Washington, D.C. The second project is ComEd's $39 million Project Goldframe. ComEd completed it last fall, 3 months ahead of schedule, to meet the customers' accelerated project timeline. To service new load obligations at the data center and the surrounding area, ComEd installed a new 138 kV substation and associated equipment, including an indoor control building, 15 138-kV circuit breakers, 4 capacitor banks and transmission line extensions to the DeKalb area in Illinois. This was the first large-scale project resulting from the passage of Illinois Data Center Tax Incentive Program in 2019. It also likely creates additional renewable energy projects in the state as 100% of customer usage will be offset by wind and solar contracts. Both contracts or both projects are great examples of how we are connecting our customers and communities to affordable, clean and resilient solutions while enabling economic growth and local job creation through these modernization investments. These projects in their own right have significant economic and social benefits to our customers and communities served. However, combined, they represent less than 1% of Exelon's projected capital spend from 2022 to '25. This puts in perspective the scale and the impact of our investments. Moving on to Slide 11. As you've heard us say at Analyst Day, our consolidated corporate credit metrics are anticipated to average 13% to 14% at S&P and Moody's over the 2022 to '24 time period. And overall, maintaining a strong balance sheet to firmly supporting investment-grade credit ratings remains core to our strategy and who we are. From a financing perspective, we successfully completed a $2 billion corporate debt offering in the first quarter, which completes our long-term debt financing needs at corporate for the year. This inaugural offering as a new company garnered significant interest from investors, enabling a very strong execution that was a true testament to the strength of our balance sheet and our new platform. And finally, there has been no change to -- in our guidance to issue $1 billion of equity at the holding company by 2025. Thank you, and I'll now turn the call back to Chris for his closing remarks.
Chris Crane :
Thanks, Joe. Turning to Slide 12. I'll close by reminding you all of Exelon's value proposition as the premier team, the only company in the nation. We're offering a great deal of value and scale, size and scale, which is particularly beneficial given the challenges posed in today's microeconomic environment and the storm intensity, as I mentioned earlier, over the weekend. We continue to be able to move resources and continuing to be able to procure required needs in the right environment. Our best-in-class operations that have led us to a world-class customer experience and constructive regulatory environments, which is key if your customers are not satisfied, the regulators aren't satisfied and that's a major focus of us. Our commitment to ESG principles by driving to a cleaner energy economy and advancing social equity, as Joe mentioned, and a strong balance sheet that will ensure our ability to invest on behalf of our -- all of our stakeholders, not only the customers, but those that want to see a stronger cleaner environment, all of these factors support our opportunity to invest $29 billion of capital over the next 4 years in response to our customer needs which will lead to an annualized 6% to 8% operating earnings growth through 2025. We've targeted a payout of 60% of those operating earnings each year back to the shareholders. Thank you very much for joining us, and now we'll open it up for questions that you may have.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And our first question coming from the line of Paul Zimbardo from Bank of America.
Paul Zimbardo:
Going to kick it off, if you could give a little bit more quantification of the net impact between the higher interest rate environment on the formula ROE in Illinois offset by the corporate cost. And it seems like a net positive mixing those 2 together. So just want to check if there's any other factors to be cognizant of as well.
Chris Crane:
Joe, you want to take that?
Joe Nigro:
Yes, I will, Chris. Paul, thanks for the question. When you look at the sensitivities we've shown you in the table, a 50 basis point move in treasury rates is worth about $0.04 to ComEd which is what we saw at the end of the first quarter. And that was -- about $0.01 of that was realized the way the formula prices is over the course of the year. So we've subsequently seen those rates move higher here in the second quarter. On the flip side to that is when you look at our corporate debt, we show you a sensitivity to a 50 basis point move, it's about a $0.01 impact. And so that move, about roughly 100 basis points or so in the third year -- year-to-date is down about $0.02 and those are the 2 big drivers of each of those variables.
Paul Zimbardo:
Okay. Great. That's helpful. Does seem positive. And then the other, I know you said no changes to the equity issuance expectations. Just if you could discuss the approach to the timing and methodology, maybe a block or ATM, just given the appreciation of just Exelon but the utility sector broadly.
Joe Nigro:
Yes. I think as we've said, we're expecting to issue up to $1 billion of equity by 2025. We haven't said necessarily when we're going to issue that. And the timing will be dependent on market conditions as well as the need for the cash itself, obviously. I mean there's a lot of things changing in the macro environment when you look at interest rates and, obviously, what the equity market is doing. And we'll work with our banking partners to make a determination at the time we need the equity or the cash as to what type of product we'll use. But at this point, we haven't made that final determination.
Chris Crane:
Yes. And I think the key, Joe, on that is watching the solid balance sheet metrics and ensuring that we continue to focus on that.
Joe Nigro:
Yes, that's right, Chris. I mean you and I both said in our scripts, right, we're investing $29 billion here over the next 4 years. And what we said at Analyst Day is $14 billion of that will become off of internal generated cash flows with the utilities, $14 billion at debt we raise across the enterprise and then about the need for the $1 billion, we just haven't made a determination as to when we need it.
Operator:
Our next question coming from the line of Steven Fleishman from Wolfe Research.
Steven Fleishman:
So just want to clarify the -- some of the adjustments, not looking backward, but maybe looking more forward. The $0.64 in the quarter, I think, includes $0.02 related to that last month of Constellation. So if we look to '23 in the future, would $0.66 essentially be the right base to kind of forecast from other drivers in the future?
Joe Nigro:
Yes, Steve. Thanks for the question. You're right the way -- I mean if you talking about the performance of the business in the first quarter and removing the impact of discontinued operations, it was $0.66. When you compare that to Q1 for '21, the equivalent number would be $0.64. You're also right, the impact in Q1, because we have to recast the whole quarter, was $0.09. But because we closed the separation February 1, it's in only a 1-month impact in '22. We would expect that 1 month to effectively drag into the comparisons that you see in '23 next year because of the month of January of this year.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay. Great. And then just the ROE improvement that you're expecting over the course of the year. Is that just kind of the normal rate relief flowing through and things like that? There's no other kind of key new drivers required to get the returns up?
Chris Crane:
It's a little lumpy. But as the rate cases go through, we expect the improvement to go within our range of 9% to 10%, and we just have to execute on the plan. So 8.9 right now should come up, Joe, within a few quarters, and we'll be within our range of desire.
Joe Nigro:
That's correct, Chris. We'll be in that 9% to 10% range by year-end, Steve. We infused equity into the utilities in the first quarter. The earnings were up, but they weren't up enough to offset that equity infusion and it just takes some time to reverse that effectively.
Operator:
Our next question coming from the line of Jeremy Tonet from JPMorgan.
Jeremy Tonet:
Just want to go over to Illinois here real quick. I wonder if you could update us a bit on how the Illinois rate making process is progressing in the transition to its new multiyear framework. Any color you could share there would be helpful.
Chris Crane:
Joe, are you going to cover that?
Joe Nigro:
Please repeat the question for me. I'm sorry, I didn't hear it.
Jeremy Tonet:
Just as far as Illinois ratemaking process progressing in the transition to its new multiyear framework, any color you could share there on the progress.
Calvin Butler:
Jeremy. Chris, this is Calvin. I'll take that one. ComEd -- as Chris outlined, ComEd filed its last rate case under the formula rate this year. And they are preparing a meeting with stakeholders, including the Illinois Commerce Commission, for their first filing of whether it's a traditional future test year or whether they go into a 4-year multiplan -- year plan as outlined by the new energy law. The meetings with the stakeholders is critical in that as ComEd lays out its options. And as Chris outlined, they will be making that filing the first part, January - -first quarter of 2023, with an expected ruling from the commission by the end of the year. So that, to your direct question, the transition is going smoothly. All the meetings are being done and met and the team is lining up on what is the appropriate course moving forward.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. That's very helpful. And just with the new look Exelon here, just wondering how do corporate cost efforts currently stand since the separation? Are they tracking your expectations at this point? And do you have any sense for upside opportunities and potential magnitude of cost savings over time now post separation here?
Chris Crane:
Yes. I wouldn't commit to upside yet. We've got to get through this transition. There's a lot of work being done by the business services company to execute on plan, the wrong plan right now and we feel comfortable. We watch the IT transition quite closely. That's one that can't get away from us, separating the financials, separating the operational, separating the common databases is -- it's crucial to making our targets. And right now, we're on track and we hope to improve on it, but I wouldn't commit to any significant improvement at this point. We have to continue to work through the process of the separation. It's astounding how much work has got to be done and it is on track, but there's a lot of people focused on it. If you look at the financials itself, separating that, looking at the operational integration, separating that, it's quite extensive. So we have the right leadership with Bridget Reidy and we continue to focus on it. Some areas might be a little bit faster than we anticipated based on the push from Constellation and Exelon, but too early to predict an upside.
Operator:
Our last question coming from the line of Durgesh Chopra with Evercore.
Durgesh Chopra:
I have a quick clarification and then a big picture question on EVs. Just, Chris, I think you mentioned, if I heard it correctly, an order in the third quarter on the Illinois, I believe the multiyear rate framework, and I believe it -- that relates to the discussions on metrics, operational metrics that are sort of adders to the ROE. Did I hear that correctly?
Chris Crane:
I wouldn't say it's the third quarter, Calvin. It's at the end of 2023 that would be finalized, but we did put in our input for the metrics, the operational metrics to ensure the customer satisfaction. But your time line, Calvin.
Joe Nigro:
Chris, you're right. We did put something in our metrics and we would expect to get -- get a response back on that in the time line that was mentioned, but not the full rate case itself.
Calvin Butler:
Right. So the performance metrics, as we've outlined, as you hit, Chris, the 8 performance metrics that they're looking for and we're currently -- it's outlined by the statute, by the law, and Gil and his team are working to drive what those are and give an agreement and alignment to how we move forward. But yes, we think within that, we know within the filing, [both] will all be locked down and our filing will take place in the first quarter of 2023.
Durgesh Chopra:
Got it. But just to be clear, the sort of the stance or the commission order as to what those metrics might look like and what those like both qualitatively and quantitatively, that comes in -- later in 2023?
Joe Nigro:
9/30 this year.
Calvin Butler:
Right. By 9/30 this year, we will have outlines, therefore, allowing the team to prepare for the rate case filing in the first quarter of 2023. We will know exactly what they are and how they will impact the business positively and/or negatively if those metrics aren't met.
Durgesh Chopra:
Perfect. Guys, I appreciate you clarifying that. So in the third quarter, we'll know what those metrics are and that will dictate your filing in the first quarter of 2023.
Calvin Butler:
Correct.
Joe Nigro:
Correct.
Durgesh Chopra:
Okay. And then just a quick follow-up. On EVs, thank you guys for sharing sort of the illustrative EV charging cost versus gas drilling cost, tremendously helpful. Maybe just very high level, and I appreciate this is a long-dated opportunity, is there a way to kind of think about the CapEx opportunity associated with this increase loads demand? And I appreciate it's over a sort of a 20-, 30-year period.
Chris Crane:
Yes, one of our jurisdictions have a different focus and we're trying to work through those. But we do see, and I'll let Calvin speak to it, we do see a potential upside in the demand required to support the EVs. And for us, it's the infrastructure costs that we have to put in, changing voltage levels up from 41 60 to 13 8 to ensure that you've got not only the distributed generation, but you can service the EV demand. And working in the different jurisdictions on how that is framed is important. Calvin, I don't know if you want to add anything there.
Calvin Butler:
I'll just -- I'll provide you some specific numbers. When you think -- because Chris is exactly right that each of our jurisdictions has approached this some more aggressive and others are just taking a staggered approach. So let's put it in terms of this. Right now, across our territories, we have approximately 215,000 EVs on the road out of the roughly 17 million vehicle registrants. So here under current statutes, the laws that have been passed, so let me just tell you about the degrees of pace. In Maryland, they have said they want 300,000 EVs on the road by 2025. New Jersey, 330,000 by 2025 and 2 million by 2035. Illinois law requires or says 1 million by 2030. And then in Delaware, 20% of the state registered vehicles by 2025. D.C., 25% by 2030 and 100% by 2045. And Pennsylvania is looking to replace 25% of its vehicles and transitioning to EVs. That just goes to show you the opportunity. And when you look at the infrastructure that is going to be required to meet that and all of our capital plan, we see the opportunity across the Exelon utilities. So to Chris' point, all different but significant opportunity for us to be partners in building out that infrastructure and preparing the grid.
Durgesh Chopra:
Got it. for taking time to answer my question. It sounds like a significant infrastructure opportunity for you guys as it is for the utilities and some of the states here moving faster than others in your territory.
Chris Crane:
Yes. And for the customers also, it's -- that's our major focus, is continuing to look forward to service the customer needs. But I thank you for joining the call today. We're looking forward to our continuing, consistent performance we've delivered across our utilities. And with that, Jeanne, unless there's anything else, I'll close the call.
Jeanne Jones :
Thanks, Chris.
Chris Crane :
Thanks, everybody. Bye.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thanks to all our participants for joining us today. This concludes our presentation. You may now disconnect. Have a good day.
Operator:
Hello, and welcome to Exelon's Third Quarter Earnings Call. My name is Justin and I will be your event specialist today. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. Please note that today's webcast is being recorded. During the presentation, we'll have a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]. [Operator Instructions] Finally, should you intend to call systems as a best practice, we suggest you first refresh your browser. If that does not resolve the issue, please click on the help option, in the upper right-hand corner of your screen, for online troubleshooting. It is now my pleasure to turn today's program, over to Emily Duncan, Vice President of Investor Relations. The floor is yours.
Emily Duncan:
Thank you, Justin. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our third quarter 2021, earnings conference call. Leading the call today are Chris Crane, Exelon's President and Chief Executive Officer, and Joe Nigro, Exelon's Chief Financial Officer. They're joined by other members of Exelon's senior management team, who will be available to answer your questions following our prepared remarks. We issued our earnings release this morning along with this presentation, all of which can be found in the Investor Relations section of Exelon's website. The earnings release and other matters which we discussed during today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ from our forward-looking statements, based on factors and assumptions discussed in today's material and comments made during the call. Please refer to today's 8-K and Exelon's other SEC filings for discussions of risk factors and other factors, including uncertainties surrounding the planned separation that may cause results to differ from management's projections, forecasts, and expectations. Today's presentation also includes references to adjusted operating earnings and other non-GAAP measures. Please refer to the information contained in the appendix of our presentation and our earnings release for reconciliations between the non-GAAP measures and the nearest equivalent GAAP measures. I will now turn the call over to Chris Crane, Exelon's CEO.
A - Chris Crane:
Thanks, Emily. And good morning, everybody. Emily, thank you for putting a hedge on everything we're about to say. We had a good quarter financially and operationally and head several very positive developments during the quarter. I'm starting on Slide 5, we earned $1.23 per share on a GAAP basis and $1.09 on a non-GAAP basis. And Joe will get into those details. Illinois passed, at the last minute, a landmark clean energy legislation, which makes the state a national leader in clean energy. Illinois will achieve 100% carbon-free by 2045 by preserving and adding tens -- preserving the plants and adding tens of thousands of jobs. And we thank Kathleen Barone and her team and many others for the work they've done. As a result, we have reversed the retirement decision on Byron and Dresden. Our Illinois plants will continue to provide good paying jobs, economic support to the communities, and 0 carbon energy to the citizens of Illinois. We've begun to fill the 650 vacant positions and we'll be investing more than $300 million in our plants over the next 5 years to catch up on what we've pulled back from -- during the unknown period. The legislation also includes the provision that would transition into this out of the formula rates, into a new multi-year performance-based rate framework. In August, we completed the PUCT transaction and acquired EDF's portion of the CNG nuclear plants, adding 17 terawatts to our own 0, admitting nuclear generation. We did receive a grant from the U.S. Department of Energy to explore the potential benefits of on-site hydrogen production. And our Nine Mile Point in New York. And we continue to believe that there is a very strong future for Hydrogen. Hydrogen will be key in helping the nation address the climate crisis, and the nuclear plants can pay a vital role in its production with its heat and capabilities. We're partnering with Nel Hydrogen, and the national labs to demonstrate the integrated production storage and use of hydrogen onsite to prove its commercial viability. Operations are expected to begin in 2022. On the regulatory front, Delaware PSC issued a constructive order in our Delmarva [indiscernible] Last quarter we announced our path to clean and our net 0 goal for the utilities. So we continue to strive to meet what our customers desire and our regulators desire. Each utility is building upon existing work and supporting a path to clean, that aligns to the goals that are needed for their local jurisdictions and stakeholders. An example is PECO's Climate Solution, it's a 5-year action plan that will fill Pepco's --?I'm? said PECO of Pepco's. That will fill with the DCPSC's request last month. This filing outlines 62 different programs to help enable the district's roadmap toward decarbonization. Another example of helping our communities to meet their goals is through our energy efficiency programs, which are some of the nations largest. Joe will talk about them in his remarks. We're committed to serving our communities in helping to drive equity and positive change. Last week, we launched a $36 million racial equity capital fund to expand access to capital from minority-owned businesses, so they can create jobs, and grow their businesses, and reinvest in the neighborhoods and the communities that we serve. It's the first of a kind in our sector. In addition, we partnered with the UNCF to launch a $3 million Exelon fund for corporate scholarship program to provide scholarships and internships that create opportunities for students, attending historically black colleges and universities, that reside in the communities that we serve. Finally, we're closely watching the work in Washington on the infrastructure, build back better agenda. The legislation will help us address climate change prices through incentivizing clean technologies and infrastructure investments, to make the grid more resilient and ready for Clean Energy Technologies. It is clear from the proposal that the Administration and Congress recognize, the critical importance of maintaining the existing nuclear fully. To ensure that the nation can cost-effectively address climate change and we're confident that when the legislation pass, does pass, it will include a production tax credit for the existing nuclear. Moving on to Slide 6, to our operations, reliability remains incredibly strong. All the utilities are delivering a top decile outage frequencies and first quartile in outage durations. BGE, PECO, and PHI were top decile for gas odor responses, which is very critical for us as we continue to defend gas as a source -- a bridge source of the future. Customer services, top-notch with BGE, ComEd and PECO achieving top decile and PHI top quartile. On a generation front, our generation fleet performed well during the quarter, even in the face of uncertainty in Illinois, Our nuclear plants produced 40.5 terawatts of 0 carbon generation, avoiding approximately 21 million tons of carbon dioxide, that would be generated otherwise. The fleet had a 96% capacity factor over that period of time. And we're very proud of their operations with the uncertainty they've faced. On Slide 7, the progress in separation. We continue to make progress on separating the businesses into 2 independent Fortune 200 companies. FERC approved the separation in August, and in September we received a private letter ruling, from the IRS confirming the tax-free nature of the separation. The process for the NRC and New York PSC approvals are moving forward as expected, and remain on track. Last week, the New York PSC staff held the first meeting of settlement negotiations. This is an important step in the process and we've asked for authorization from the commission by December 16th, on their scheduled meeting date. We have named the CEO of each Company, as well as their direct reports and we'll continue the staffing prior growth process over the course of the next few weeks and months to be ready for the close in the first quarter of next year. Joe Dominguez and I are both excited to lead our companies into the next chapter. Exelon will continue to be one of the nation's premier customer-focused energy delivery companies with more than 10 million customers. Joe is the right person to lead Constellation. We'll be America's leading clean energy Company producing 12% of the nation's clean energy. And nearly 2 times more than any other clean energy Company out there. We remain focused on setting each business up to be successful for the long term. Joe, I'll turn over to you for the financial update.
A - Joe Nigro:
Thank you, Chris. And good morning, everyone. Today I will cover our third quarter results, our quarterly financial updates and our hedge disclosures. I will also provide an update on our full-year 2021 guidance. Turning to Slide 8 first, we earned a $1.09 per share on a non-GAAP basis for the quarter. Exelon Utilities delivered a combined $0.66 per share net of holding Company expenses; and this was primarily driven by above-normal summer weather in our non decoupled jurisdictions, along with strong operational performance and the impacts of distribution rate cases. ExGen earned $0.44 per share in the third quarter. Generation and Constellation both performed well during the quarter. We continue to make progress on levers we identified to mitigate the Texas loss, and we expect it will take the full year to realize all of the savings. Realized gains in our decommissioning trust funds partially offset the unrealized losses from our Constellation technology venture investments, which are mark-to-market in every quarter until realized. At our holding Company, we benefited from expected income tax favorability in the third quarter. And as a reminder, our holding Company incurred $0.12 per share drag in the first quarter, associated with how consolidated full-year tax expenses are booked due to the impact of the losses incurred at ExGen and Texas. The remainder of the first quarter drag is expected to reverse in the fourth quarter, and is not expected to impact our full year results. Turning to guidance, we are narrowing our 2021 EPS guidance range to $2.70 to $2.90 per share, from $2.60 to $3 per share previously. Our updated guidance considers reversal of the retirements of the Byron and Dresden nuclear stations, as well as execution of the EDF put, and our continued additional disciplined approach to cost management. We are delivering on our financial commitments and are confident, we will be within our revised range at year-end. On Slide 9, we show our quarter-over-quarter earnings walk. The dollar per 9 -- $9 per share in the third quarter of this year was $0.05 per share higher than the third quarter of 2020. Exelon Utilities inclusive of holding Company earnings, we're $0.08 per share higher compared to last year. The earnings growth was driven primarily by higher transmission and distribution rates associated with completed rate cases relative to the third quarter of 2020 and higher treasury rates on ComEd's distribution ROE. This was partially offset by costs related to the remnants of Hurricane Ida that swept through the PECO's service territory in our early September. The partial reversal of the first quarter tax expense at corporate also drove favorability relative to last year's results. ExGen's earnings were down $0.03 per share compared with last year, and the decrease was due to net unrealized and realized losses on Constellation venture investments, lower capacity revenues, primarily in PJM, and more planned nuclear outage days. This was partially offset by realized gains in our nuclear decommissioning trust funds and higher ZEC revenue, due in part to increase volumes resulting from fewer planned refueling outages, and ZEC pricing in New York. Moving to Slide 10, looking at our utility returns on a consolidated basis, we continue to meet our consolidated 9% to 10% target with a 9.3% trailing month -- trailing 12-month ROE as of the third quarter. Earned ROE dipped modestly by 10 basis points since last quarter. Despite higher earnings driven primarily by distribution and transmission rates, the earnings were outpaced by increased equity infusions in cross all for utilities to support capital investments. Looking forward, we remain focused on delivering stronger and returns at the utilities and supporting our growth targets to enable customer benefits. Turning to Slide 11, there were some important developments on the regulatory front since the last call. First, on September 1st, Delmarva, Maryland filed an electric base rate case with the Maryland Public Service Commission, seeking an approximately $29 million increase in electric distance rates and reflecting an ROE of 10.1%. The case highlight to Delmarva Power's strong record of reliability reporting the second-best reliability performance in Maryland in 2019 and 2020 behind only Pepco. Delmarva Power continues to make significant investments to improve reliability and customer service, for our customers and communities. DPL Maryland expects to receive an order by March 30th, 2022. Second, on September 15th, Delmarva Delaware received a verbal order for its distribution electric rate case. The Delaware Commission approved approximately $14 million increase in annual base distribution rates reflecting an ROE of 9.6%. As permitted by Delaware law, Delmarva Power implemented full allowable rates on October 6th, 2020, subject to refund. We also have two rate cases pending final orders in the fourth quarter. On October 6, the administrative logo (ph) was presiding over PECO's electric distribution base rate case, recommended the settlement with all parties be approved. The settlement provides for an increase of a 132 million, in annual electric distribution revenues. And we expect to receive an order in the fourth quarter. And then on November 2, the AOJ presiding over ComEd's 2021 distribution formula rate update, issued a proposed order. There were no adjustments to ComEd's proposed revenue requirement increase of $45.8 million. We expect to receive a final order from the Illinois Commerce Commission by early December. We continue to have constructive regulatory relationships across our jurisdictions and are working with our regulators, states, and communities to support their clean energy and climate goals. As a reminder, we expect nearly 100% of our rate base growth will be covered by alternative mechanisms by the end of our planning period, a differentiator for our utilities when compared to peers. More details on the rate cases can be found on slides 20 through 24 of the appendix. And as Chris mentioned, our energy efficiency programs highlighted on Slide 12 is one example of how Exelon's Utilities are helping their customers on the path to clean. Exelon Utilities are driving customer-driven emissions reductions in our communities through some of the nation's largest energy efficiency programs and conservation efforts. These programs enable customer savings through home energy audits, lighting discounts, appliance recycling, home improvement rebates, equipment upgrade incentives, and innovative programs like smart thermostats, and combined heat and power programs. In 2020, through a combination of new and prior-year investments, our utilities helped customers save over 22.3 million megawatt hours of energy. This equates to eight point million -- 8.1 million metric tons of CO2 emissions avoided. The equivalent of nearly 932,000 homes energy use for 1 year, or the carbon sequestered by 10.5 million acres of U.S. forest in 1 year, according to EPA's Greenhouse Gas calculator. Each of Exelon's Utilities is building upon existing work and supporting a path to clean that aligns to the goals and needs of their local jurisdictions and stakeholders. Our approach allowed jurisdictional flexibility such that each utility may respond to their unique regions and markets, and employ the strategies and solutions that best address their operational footprint and customer preferences. But for discussing our gross margin update on Slide 13, I want to remind you that we expect to provide 2022 hedge disclosures at Analyst Day, which will be held closer to the completion of the separation. However, what I can say now is that we have continued to hedge on our rateables plan for future years. And this includes the length from the Byron and Dresden retirement reversals until the carbon mitigation contracts begin and Exelon's full ownership of the CENG assets. Turning to the table, total gross margin increased $500 million since last quarter due to the plant retirement reversals in Illinois and full ownership of the CENG assets beginning on August 7th. In 2021, open gross margin is up $1.6 billion relative to the second quarter, primarily due to higher prices in all regions and higher volumes driven by execution of the EDF PUCT, and the decision to reverse Byron and Dresden 's early retirements. Capacity and ZEC dollars are up $100 million due to full ownership of the CENG assets. Mark-to-market of hedges were down $1 billion due to our hedged position, partially offset by the execution of power new business. We executed $200 million of power new business, and $50 million of non-power new business during the third quarter. The non-gross margin impacts of the Illinois plant reversals and the full ownership of CENG are incorporated on page 32 of the appendix. Thank you. And I'll now turn the call back to Chris for his closing remarks.
A - Chris Crane:
Thanks, Joe. Turning to Slide 14, I'll close on our ongoing priorities and commitments. As we've said in the past and will continue, we will meet or exceed our financial commitments, delivering earnings with our guidance range and maintaining a strong Balance Sheet. And that goes for both companies as we split, there's a commitment on both sides to do that. We'll complete the preparations to separate the businesses including the organization, the cost structure for each Company that will set each Company up for long-term success at a strong investment grade. At Exelon Utilities, we are prudently and efficiently deploying $6.6 billion of capital to benefit our customers and help meet the needs of our jurisdictions Energy policy goals. We are working with our regulators to ensure timely recovery of these investments, as Joe discussed in his talking points. We continue to advocate for clean energy and climate policies with the new administration and Congress, In our states to put the country on the path to meeting the carbon and air pollution reduction goals. There's more here than just carbon. We have a city in Chicago that is the 3rd highest with lung disease, and it's not only carbon, it's the fumes from the industrial sources, and we need to do our part to help lower that. We're partnering and supporting our customers in the communities that we serve. So with that, I thank you for your time today, and I'll open up the call, to questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [ Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Stephen Byrd, from Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.
Stephen Byrd:
Good morning. Thanks so much for the thorough update.
Chris Crane:
Thanks, Steve.
Stephen Byrd:
I wanted to step back and talk about federal legislation broadly, and discuss the impacts, less on nuclear, I think you all have been very clear on that side. I'm thinking more about everything from tax policy to support for transmission. Just curious at a high level, what are you thinking in terms about the potential impacts to your business if this legislation were to pass?
Chris Crane:
I'll let Kathleen Barron speak to it. We think there's a lot of positives that can be put in play here. I don't think we're looking for any handouts. We'd rather make the investments ourselves. And between Kathleen and Calvin Butler, we'll -- they'll ham and egg it.
Kathleen Barron:
And Joe may want to jump in on the tax question, but good morning, Stephen. As you pointed out, I think we're very heartened by the support for the nuclear stations and the recognition that their continued operation is essential to meeting the climate goals. But the bill goes way beyond nuclear as you pointed out, in terms of the extensive support for electric vehicles both personal vehicles and electric buses and transit transmission, as you pointed out, and then significant funding on resiliency for hardening and weatherization, all of which we think are essential for the communities that we service as Chris pointed out. The transmission program, that's always been a challenging issue, as you know, given that it's not just about funding, but it's also about citing. And so we do expect that to continue to be a challenging area, but obviously essentially to the Clean Energy build-out. So I'll stop there, let Cal jump in or Joe, as I said, on tax.
Calvin Butler:
Good morning, Steve. And I will just add a couple of things to piggyback off what Kathleen said. If you think about some of the specifics that the federal government is looking to partner with the states, think about the $7.5 billion they've earmarked for a charging infrastructure. $5 billion going toward zero emission and clean buses, port electrification. When you think about port electrification, for our city of Baltimore and Philadelphia, what that would mean for them, and not even talking about the different grants that they're proposing where utilities could partner to do different things in creative. And all this is good for the customers. If those -- that -- those monies are coming directly to the state and there's a partnership, we will continue to invest on reliability and resiliency and then take these moments. It keeps the customer build down. And that is a concern of ours, just to keep affordability at the forefront of everything we do. So that's that partnership and how we see it playing out. Joe?
Joe Nigro:
And I will pick up, Stephen, on the tax question and we're studying the potential implications across our business. And as you know, we obviously a very large capital plans at our utilities for the benefit of the cost -- our customers. And they also helped drive the local economies and help meet the climate and clean energy goals of our communities. Many of the goals -- of those same goals are shared by this build back better plan, which I think is driving the tax question. And you've heard others in the industry say the minimum tax could increase customer bills and potentially impact investment of the capital that we deploy. We are communicating with policymakers about that fact and the impacts it may have on the capital planning process, and we're continuing to work through that.
Stephen Byrd:
Very helpful, thank you. And then maybe just -- separately, just thinking about the utility business. You already have excellent growth, so I suppose this question is going to come across as somewhat greedy, but I am thinking about other areas of upside potential there. I was just curious, maybe for Calvin and Chris. As we think about categories of growth upside beyond, the excellent base plan that is, resulting in above average growth. What are some of the categories of, additional upside as we think about, the utilities growth prospects going forward?
Chris Crane:
I'll just start off and then [indiscernible] to Calvin. There are many case studies being done on voltage requirements -- on dual flow voltage requirements. What do we use to harden ourselves from an internet exposure which would be our own wires, our own fiber but -- Cal?
Calvin Butler:
Chris, you captured it. It really goes around building the reliability and the resiliency of our system. And I think as we lay out our multi-year plans and across our jurisdictions, it's understanding and really diving in, Stephen, in terms of what the customers want in our jurisdictions, but the hardening and the resiliency of our system is coming in the forefront. In addition to fighting climate change, that's a big part of what we're doing in along with the security-related issues, as Chris has outlined. So those are opportunities in the areas, but it's that partnership and really understanding what the jurisdictions are wanting.
Stephen Byrd:
Thank you very much. Go ahead.
Chris Crane:
We can't run a system on the distribution side any longer at a 4,160-voltage level, we have to get up to 138, and that's going to take a significant investment to do that. And that's to support the distributed Generation. So there's a lot more work to be done.
Stephen Byrd:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Steve Fleishman from Wolfe Research. Your line is now open.
Steve Fleishman:
Hi, good morning.
Chris Crane:
Hi, Steve.
Steve Fleishman:
Hi. So I guess 2 questions. First, on the Build Back Better [indiscernible] Bill. Just thoughts on the likelihood that that passes. And if some reason it does not, how do you feel about opportunities to address nuclear PTCs and other bills if we somehow got there?
Chris Crane:
Well, Kathleen is earning her paycheck to ensure that it gets done. So I'll let her answer the question.
Kathleen Barron:
Good morning, Steve.
Steve Fleishman:
Kathleen, make it to -- make it 2 for 2.
Kathleen Barron:
Thanks, Steve. I think we're still feeling very confident about the Democrats ability to get both infrastructure and build back better across the finish line. They're -- as you know, a strong proposal put out by the president that had support last week around a top line number that the group has apparently coalesced around. They have continued to work to flesh out the meat on the bones, so that they can move this package quickly and [indiscernible] has assured that he thinks that is doable, indeed, even signing an agreement with the Senate Majority Leader that it's possible this could get done by Thanksgiving. So I think there's a broad consensus that action is needed. And in particular, on the clean energy tax package, that there's sufficient support for the provisions that we'll get the country to a place where it can come close to meeting the 2030 Carbon reduction goals. If for some reason that does not occur, as you know, there's regularly action at the end of the year on a bipartisan basis to look at tax extenders. And we're again hopeful given the amount of support that we've seen for support for the existing fleet, that the nuclear provisioning could be considered as part of an end-of-the-year bipartisan package, if the democrat BBB bill doesn't get across the finish line.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. My other question related to that is, I know there's a ton of detail of this, but just high level. How does the PTC interact with your existing state commitments for the different units, or subsidies or laws. Also you’re hedging and retail and all that, as well.
Chris Crane:
I want to start new.
Kathleen Barron:
Yes, I'll start off and pass it to Jim on the hedging question. But the short answer is that under the nuclear PTC as drafted, revenues from a state program are not, included at the state program would adjust, or reflect the existence of the federal support. almost all of our programs have some explicit reference to the fact that if there is subsequent federal support after the state program takes effect, that it will be reflected in the state calculation of the support under the program. So there clearly will need to be further proceedings to evaluate and have the state adjudicate how that federal support will be reflected, but assuming that the PTC passes, we would expect each of the states to take a look at that and for it to be reflected in the level of the states' supports. Jim?
Jim Mchugh:
Yeah. And Steve, I think on the hedging the best -- the details of the implementation [Indiscernible] really matter. But for now, I think the right way to think about it, is this effectively will serve as a hedge for a significant portion of our generation. If you take our nuclear fleet and we kind of reconcile what the PTC program will do. And then kind of reflect what Kathleen just said about its impact on the state programs, the net result is you have a pretty highly hedged portfolio with the PTC. We'll get into the details about them, The exact settlement of it and exactly how it -- the implementation plan will be settled all the way through the prices all the way through to the spot market. The best way I think on the retail business for us is we'll be able to still win our customer business. We'll have a portfolio that's a little bit more hedged to begin with. We'll have purchases in the market to help us where we need to go make additional purchase to help us serve the load portfolio that will continue to serve.
Steve Fleishman:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
And thank you. And our next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Bank of America. Your line is now open.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey. Good morning, team. Congrats on the continued progress across all your various efforts here. So kudos to Kathleen and team. But perhaps -- just to focus on one of the other topical issues of late. Uranium prices have been seeing a pretty sharp uptake of late. I suspect it's not too subsidiary and for you all, but I just want to make sure I understand how you all are thinking about that impact things sort of longer-term hedging and procurement activities. And ultimately impact back to the core business.
Chris Crane:
I think we're very well hedged through this period and it's not like we haven't seen it before, but I'll let Bryan Hanson, our head of the Generating Company -- Operations of the Generating Company, answer that.
Bryan Hanson:
Thanks, Chris. Good morning, Julien. We think today's market fundamentals are much improved from the last uranium bull market that we saw 2008-2010 period. Demand is lower, primary mining supply has increased and utility inventories are higher. We at Exelon, we hedge with a diverse portfolio of fuel contracts that include varying pricing mechanisms, or varying horizons with a diverse group of qualified and reliable suppliers. And we maintain a strategic inventory, both to ensure security of supply for our reactors, and to provide flexibility and purchase timing in the event of a market disruption like we're seeing today. We even maintain or keep our uranium inventory in different material states, such as yellow cake gore uranium hexafluoride gas. So we think we're well hedged and well ready for this current bull market. We're looking in the forward part of the LRP for any opportunities and they're all well within our expectations that we see today.
Chris Crane:
That would be [Indiscernible]
Bryan Hanson:
UFS 6. Very good, Chris.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
There we go, excellent. Thank you guys for affirming that, appreciate it. And then, I just -- on the Hydrogen side, I heard the comment about partnering with Nel here, scaling into operate commercial opportunities to the extent available in '22. Can you talk a little bit more about what that opportunity means for you all? I mean, is this just about having a firm uptake or is this about having some portion of the economics over time? And I know it's early days, but I'm just curious to hear, at least it's the best to understand what that opportunity may be, especially considering the credits at hand here as well.
Chris Crane:
Yeah. I don't think we're ready to give a full business model on it right now. I think we've got a good partnership with the DOE. Exelon, like other utility companies, sees a great use for hydrogen if it's mixing it with natural gas to cut down the carbon loads or other ways. There's -- our strategy organization is still looking at the transportation methodology and they're doing some metallurgical research with other labs to make sure that we -- if we were replacing natural gas pipelines with hydrogen pipelines, that the embrittlement problem doesn't become severe. So what we need to do first, is predict or perfect an efficient technology, using our heat and steam to develop the Hydrogen. Then from there, continue to work with other stakeholders on, where we put the Hydrogen. Does it go in a mixed form with natural gas at first? Does it become, what was thought about ten years ago, the hydrogen economy? I don't think we're there yet. I think there is a lot of work to be done before we get there, but just having the grants and working with the labs and the government to start using a nuclear plant for something more than electricity because you've got all that waste, heat, and steam that can be redirected into the development of very efficient hydrogen, and then continue to move on from there.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. Just to clarify this, I imagine you wouldn't touch on the subject of capital allocation given the rise in commodity prices here. And when still stated equity needs. Still too early, right?
Chris Crane:
Yes. Too early
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Fair enough. We will leave it there. Thank you, guys. Best of luck here.
Chris Crane:
Alright. Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Shar Pourreza from Guggenheim Partners. Your line is now open.
Shar Pourreza:
Hey guys, good morning.
Chris Crane:
Morning.
Shar Pourreza:
Joe, can you just maybe further unpack, I guess the level of details and additional disclosures around the retail business that you plan to talk about at the Analyst Day, now that it's obviously a lot more in focus? And then the interim, maybe just further elaborate in how we should think about Nigro? Think about the prompt year, and year to hedge profiles just given the lack of disclosures and significant moves in the curves. I mean, appear didn't, obviously, take as much advantage as expected, so maybe just a better sense here would help, even if it's directionally.
Joe Nigro:
Yeah, let me answer the first question, Shar, and good morning. And then I'll turn over the hedge question to Jim McHugh. As I've said previously, as we get closer to actual separation date, we plan to have an Analyst Day for both companies where we'll update all of the financial variables so you have a complete picture of both companies and you'll get insight into -- on the Exelon side, all the things that we normally provide including earnings trajectories and rate-based growth and so on. And on the Constellation side, we'll give you the details with the updated hedge disclosures and all the other associated information that allows you to do your modeling. But that's not going to happen obviously until we get much more certainty and much closer to the actual execution of separation itself. And with that, Jim, I'll let you answer the question.
Jim Mchugh:
Sure, I'll talk about hedging. The outer years where we have less hedge -- we've always talked about our ratable hedge program. We're still following that. We're not deviating a large deal from what we've historically talked about. I think the change for 2022 has to be in relation to what we saw develop over the course of this quarter with the legislation. We had assets that we had previously said we're going to retire. And then the legislation passed and we un -retired. And what that effectively meant for 2022 is that Before the contract goes into effect, it created a position that added extra generationally through our portfolio that we've been able to since then hedge but beyond -- then beyond May or June when the contract starts, effectively those megawatts are hedged through the CMC contracts. So the 2022 is just a little bit in a different beginning of the year, end of your story because effectively the contracts are providing the hedge in the long run. We hedged the length that got added back to the book, largely speaking, in the beginning of the year, during this price action that we saw this quarter. So that's been a generally good development. And then, in the outer years, we would still -- other than the contracted assets, we would still be following along our rateables hedge programs. So there's the further out in time you go, the more open position areas as we've always had historically.
Shar Pourreza:
Got it. That's actually pretty interesting points. Thank you for that. And then just lastly. I know you guys are still working through the details, but can we just touch on maybe just how you're thinking about the SpinCo capital allocation. Just even briefly, right? I mean, your IPP peers have been very specific. Is this something we should -- we could see from Constellation? Just maybe some high-level thoughts on how you and the board are thinking about approaching growth versus returning capital to shareholders.
Chris Crane:
You know what? We're going through that modeling right now. As Joe Dominguez takes over a d he puts his financial team together, they will be evaluating the best use of capital and what the opportunities are. Having a good investment-grade gives us a little bit more opportunity. And maybe what would -- somebody would call our peers, that we don't think that they are our peers because of the hedge portion of the nuclear plants. But they will continue to evaluate that in the best way to create shareholder value, and Joe Dominguez you want to add any more?
Joe Dominguez:
I don't think I really can add at this point. We're looking at it pretty carefully. As Chris said, we think we have, some unique opportunities in this business, around co-location of assets, Hydrogen, and other things. That will depend on how the legislation plays out, and we've covered that. I think we'll have a lot more to say on that on-Analyst Day, but at this point, we're really just studying options. Pretty excited about the opportunities in front of us.
Chris Crane:
One thing I can say is, I don't see him building a new nuclear plant anytime soon.
Shar Pourreza:
Thank you for clarifying that Chris. Appreciate it guys, and congrats.
Operator:
And thank you. And our next question comes from Jeremy Tonet from JPMorgan. Your line is now open.
Unidentified Analyst:
Hi, good morning. It's actually Ryan on for Jeremy. Just had one on the regulated business and kind of [Indiscernible] understanding it's still early days, but the changes are the framework at Illinois and ComEd and how you thinking at this stage about those 2 different options that multi-year plan versus the traditional rate-making and how that might impact growth of customer bill impacts as we approach that date?
Calvin Butler:
Hey, Ryan, this is Calvin Butler. First and foremost, the team is really looking through and analyzing all the metrics. And as you know, we're operating with the formula rate through the end of '22 and we'll make that, decide on early midyear what that looks like going forward. But we're really making that determination now. We have not decided yet whether it's going to be a four-year multiyear plan, forward-looking test year. We're doing that analysis now.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay. Understood. And then just maybe just one on ExGen, and I know you guys are going to be very successful in achieving on the assets laid out beginning of the year on the offset, [Indiscernible] kind of storm. And just thinking through, maybe you can provide more color on what those assets have been and any kind of incremental thoughts on relative sustainability, going into future years?
Chris Crane:
Bryan, you want to talk about what you're doing?
Bryan Hanson:
Yeah, on the nuclear side where a lot of the offsets came from, in our capital allocation, our capital maintenance, many of those items were big, major transformer improvements, changes, change-outs. We've just simply moved those on a year or 2. We bundled them the way we did because it streamlined our efficiencies and use of craft resources. We're able to skip a year or 2 on those, no challenges to reliability from that standpoint. And a number of the other modifications included just a material condition. Improvements were always kept in the plan, but some of the digital upgrades that we had planned for those years, we've moved those out of a couple of years and reassessing the economic viability of some of those improvements.
Chris Crane:
Would you just bring them back Colorado bend from hardening for the lessons learned.
Bryan Hanson:
Yeah, in the Texas assets, we have done all the work that's required that address the known issues and the acute issues from Winter Storm Uri. We're finishing up at Colorado Ben, which is done. Our plant by Houston will follow -- we finished that work-up a couple of weeks ago, as well as a number of enhancements we made just to protect ourselves against a sustained cold weather event again in Texas. Temporary improvements that we've made looking for, again, what's the long-term market signals for those plants.
Unidentified Analyst:
Got it. I appreciate the color. I'll leave it there. Thank you.
Operator:
And thank you. And I would now like to turn the call back to President and CEO, Chris Crane, for closing remarks.
Chris Crane:
Thank you for joining the call today. As you know, we're working hard to run the business at best-in-class levels and taking steps to step up to item strong in?2? companies, strong independent companies. And we look forward to seeing you at EEI, I think next week. It's coming quick. And with that, we'll close the call out and tell everybody to be safe.
Operator:
Thanks to all participants for joining us today. This concludes our presentation; you may now disconnect. Have a great day.
Operator:
Hello and welcome to Exelon’s Second Quarter Earnings Call. My name is Danny and I will be your event specialist today. [Operator Instructions] It is now my pleasure to turn today’s program over to Dan Eggers, Senior Vice President of Corporate Finance. The floor is yours.
Dan Eggers:
Thank you, Danny. Good morning, everyone and thank you for joining our second quarter 2021 earnings conference call. Leading the call today are Chris Crane, Exelon’s President and Chief Executive Officer and Joe Nigro, Exelon’s Chief Financial Officer. They are joined by other members of Exelon’s senior management team, who will be available to answer your questions following our prepared remarks. We issued our earnings release this morning, along with the presentation, all of which can be found in the Investor Relations section of Exelon’s website. The earnings release and other matters which we discuss during today’s call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ from our forward-looking statements based on factors and assumptions discussed in today’s material and comments made during this call. Please refer to today’s 8-K and Exelon’s other SEC filings for discussions of risk factors and other factors, including uncertainties surrounding the planned separation that may cause results to differ from management’s projections, forecasts and expectations. Today’s presentation also includes references to adjusted operating earnings and other non-GAAP measures. Please refer to the information contained in the appendix of our presentation and our earnings release for reconciliations between the non-GAAP measures and the nearest equivalent GAAP measures. I will now turn the call over to Chris Crane, Exelon’s CEO.
Chris Crane:
Thanks, Dan and good morning everybody and thanks for joining us this morning. We had a good quarter financially and operationally. We made progress on our regulatory and policy objectives as we had stated our desires last quarter. We earned $0.41 per share on a GAAP basis and $0.89 per share on a non-GAAP basis and Joe will go through those details when we get to his part of the presentation. As you know, we have been working with our regulators and our policymakers across our six jurisdictions on regulatory mechanisms that would allow us to prudently invest in critical infrastructure to the benefit of our consumers, while earning an appropriate return on that used capital. As part of those efforts, the DC, Maryland PSCs, approved multiyear plans for Pepco. The New Jersey BPU approved ACE’s electric rate settlement and we received an order in the PECO gas rate case. It’s the first in 10 years. PJM held a first capacity auction in 3 years. Results were disappointing, but were slightly better than we had anticipated or expected. Commerce and the administration continue to work on the infrastructure package and there is momentum building to preserve the existing nuclear fleet to meet the country’s energy and climate goals. The presence budget includes support for existing nuclear plants and Senator [indiscernible] and Representative Pascrell introduced legislation to provide $15 per megawatt hour production tax credit to existing nuclear power plants. This legislation would help ensure that the existing nuclear fleet, which provides more than 50% of the nation’s carbon-free power, remains in operations and available to meet the country’s energy needs, while preserving and achieving climate goals. This progress is encouraging. If the PTC is included in the legislation that passes later this year, it will make an enormous difference for climate and for our nuclear plants. Unfortunately though, that will be too late for the Byron and the Dresden nuclear facilities, which brings me to Illinois. After many months of very tough negotiations, we were able to reach agreement with the Governor and his administration that would provide support to Byron, Dresden and Braidwood facilities, allowing them continued operation and LaSalle would also be preserved. Unfortunately, the state leaders and other stakeholders are at an impasse at this point on provisions related to the nuclear regulation – or excuse me, the nuclear issues in the legislation. There has been no progress towards enacting the legislation since the session ended and the retirement dates for the plants are now only weeks away. We don’t want to close these plants, but we cannot make decisions based off of hope of legislation being passed in the future. We have been doing that since 2016, while significant losses have been incurred. We must act on the economic facts as they exist today where no legislation has been passed by the general assembly or signed into law by the Governor. Absent legislation, closing the plants is the right economic decision, but not an easy one. The talent, the dedicated employees that work at these plants, our colleagues and our friends that these – their jobs support their families and the communities. Premature retirement of these plants is also a loss for the citizens of Illinois. The 4 plants at Byron, Dresden, Braidwood and LaSalle, which are 8 reactors, provide 28,000 direct and indirect jobs, $3.5 billion annually to the Illinois economy, $150 million in Illinois taxes that support the schools, public safety and other critical services in the communities that they reside in. Two-thirds of Illinois carbon-free electricity is greatly at risk with these shutdowns. Once Byron and Dresden retire, it will take many years under the proposed legislation to add enough renewable energy – intermittent renewable energy to get back to where Illinois is in terms of clean energy production. In the meantime, more than 100 million metric tons of additional carbon will be admitted over the next decade as a result. I remain hopeful that the outstanding differences can be resolved and the Bill will be passed very soon that would allow the clients to continue to deliver the carbon-free power to the grid, but time is really running out on that becoming achievable. Moving to operations on Slide 6, reliability and performance remained strong despite the frequent storms and the heat across our service territories. All utilities achieved first quartile operating performance in outage duration and frequency, as you can see by the charts. ComEd delivered top decile performance in outage duration and frequency, while BGE and PHI were top decile for outage duration. Customer operation metrics remain strong across the utilities. BGE, ComEd and PECO achieved top decile performance in the customer satisfaction indices. On the generation front, our generation fleet performed well during the quarter. Our nuclear plants provided 36.6 terawatt hours of zero carbon generation to the grid, avoiding approximately 20 million metric tons of carbon dioxide. The fleet had a capacity factor of 93.7% for the quarter. Our fossil and renewable fleet operated above plan with power dispatch match at 99.5% and wind and solar energy capture at 96%. Our Texas plants are running as expected, helping to meet the summer loads. Turning to the separation on Slide 7, we are making progress against our execution plan and remain on track for first quarter close. The team is working on the organizational and cost structures of each company that will set each business up for long-term success. On the regulatory front, we have received comments in each of the dockets for approval and the process is moving forward as expected. We remain on track to get the necessary approvals. We will continue to update you on the work as it progresses. Turning to Slide 8, we all are very excited at Exelon to announce that Exelon Utilities have set a goal to reduce their operations driven admission by 50% by 2030 and reaching net zero by 2050. Since our founding, Exelon has been dedicated to being part of the solution for climate crisis and a leader in providing clean energy to the grid. We were one of the first companies in our industry to commit to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, even though our emissions were already 10x lower than our peers. We have met or exceeded our previous – three previous goals and Exelon Utilities new goal builds upon our longstanding commitment to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions. We will make these goals through continued modernization of our gas systems, electrifying our light-duty fleet and exploring electricity and other zero carbon alternatives for medium and heavy-duty fleet. A focus on energy efficiency and clean electricity for our operations is clearly part of the plan, investing in equipment and processes to reduce our SF6 insulating gas from our large breakers from our system, exploring and piloting low-carbon fuels in new grid technologies and advocating for affordable grid decarbonization. In addition, we remain focused on how we can help our customers and communities decarbonize in an equitable way. The utilities will continue to invest in the EV infrastructure across our service territories and join the electric highway coalition, which will create a seamless network of charging stations on highway systems covering most of the country. We will invest in robust energy efficiency programs in each of our utilities. This is the continuing endeavor which will enable customers to have lower emissions profile, use less energy and save money. In 2020 alone, these programs avoided 8.1 million metric tons of carbon emissions. Advocates for policy that will put our state – we will continue to advocate for policies that will put our states and our communities on a path to a clean energy future while ensuring equitable transitions that’s benefit everyone in our communities. Before I turn it over to Joe on Slide 9, I want to highlight the work we are doing to help transform our communities through our workforce development programs, which you can see on – narrated on the slide. Diversity, equality and inclusion is a core value at Exelon and we are growing a diverse and inclusive high-performing workforce. We operate in some of the most diverse cities in the country and we have a responsibility to help address the inequities in our communities. We have more than 100 workforce development programs, spanning from middle schools, high schools and throughout colleges as well as programs for work-ready underemployed adults. These programs have already reached more than 22,000 participants. We recently launched the STEM Leadership Academy scholarships that are open to graduates of the program ensures that the graduates are debt-free and guaranteed internships with Exelon throughout their college path. I recently awarded scholarships to 7 young women and see their faces on how life-changing this was for them and their families. It was quite emotional, not only for the young women, but for myself and the rest of the leadership here at Exelon. We are committed to supporting our communities by investing in education, job training programs and giving the underserved populations opportunities to grow and succeed. I will turn it over to Joe now to take our financial update.
Joe Nigro:
Thank you, Chris and good morning everyone. Today, I will cover our second quarter results, our quarterly financial updates and our hedge disclosures. First, turning to Slide 10, we earned $0.89 per share on a non-GAAP basis for the quarter. This favorability was driven by O&M tax timing as well as some realized and unrealized gains we have forecasted for later this year. Exelon Utilities delivered a combined $0.49 per share net of holding company expenses. This was primarily driven by strong operational performance and the impacts of distribution rate cases. ExGen earned $0.40 per share in the second quarter and we have begun to make progress on levers we identified to mitigate the Texas laws. But as we have said before, we expect it will take a full year to realize all the savings. Additionally, unrealized and realized gains from the Constellation Technology Ventures portfolio and realized gains from our nuclear decommissioning trust funds contributed to the favorable course. At Holdco, we benefited from expected income tax favorability in the second quarter. As a reminder, Holdco incurred $0.12 per share drag in the first quarter associated with how consolidated full year tax expenses are booked due to the impact of losses incurred at ExGen in Texas during Q1. The remainder of the first quarter hit will reverse over the course of the year and not impact our full year results. There is still a lot of work to be done this year, but we are confident we will deliver earnings within our guidance range of $2.60 to $3 per share. And you can see the details on Slide 17 in the appendix. On Slide 11, we show our quarter-over-quarter earnings block. The $0.89 per share in the second quarter of this year was $0.34 per share higher than the second quarter of 2020. Exelon Utilities less Holdco earnings were up $0.20 per share compared with last year. The increase was driven primarily by the absence of storm’s costs from last year’s record setting storm season at PECO and new rates associated with our completed rate cases and the impact of higher treasury rate on ComEd’s distribution ROE. The partial reversal of first quarter tax expense at corporate also drove favorability relative to last year’s results. ExGen’s earnings were up $0.14 per share compared with last year. And the increase was due to unrealized and realized gains on our Constellation Technology Venture investments, realized gains in our nuclear decommissioning trust funds, fewer planned nuclear outage days, and higher ZEC revenue from increased volumes in ZEC pricing in New York. As a reminder, the Constellation Technology Venture investment will be mark-to-market every quarter. And since the quarter end, we have seen some decline in prices. Moving on to Slide 12, looking at our utility returns on a consolidated basis, our trailing 12-month ROE as of the second quarter has improved to 9.6% and is back within our 9% to 10% targeted range. A 50 basis point increase from last quarter was primarily due to higher second quarter earnings across the utilities and the roll-off of the storms that I mentioned that occurred last year. Looking forward, we remain focused on delivering stronger returns at the utilities and supporting our growth targets. Now, turning to Slide 13, as Chris mentioned briefly in his remarks, there were some important developments on the regulatory front. Notably, we received orders in two multiyear plans at Pepco for DC and Maryland. Multiyear plans provide our customers with great predictability and reduce the administrative costs caused by frequent filing with traditional rate case to recover our costs. We are pleased that we have now received orders in our first 3 multiyear repayments, which will provide timely and predictable recovery for capital investments for the benefit of all our customers. And now moving on to the details of the recent rate case developments. First, on June 8. The DC Public Service Commission approved Pepco’s multiyear plan for the 18 months spanning the remainder of ‘21 through 2022 with an allowed ROE of 9.275%, a revenue increase of $108.6 million, along with the acceleration of tax benefits to partially mitigate rate impacts for customers through 2022 is approved. Additionally, the order allows for two-way reconciliation, including the ability to request recovery of costs that exceed the forecasted cost at the end of ‘20. The commission also approved tracking performance and center mechanisms that are focused on the district’s climate and clinical energy goals, including GHG, emission reduction, energy savings, peak demand reduction and distributed energy resources deployed. Second, on the 28th of June, the Maryland Public Service Commission approved Pepco’s 3-year multiyear plan for April 1, 2021 through March 31, 2024. The order approved a cumulative revenue requiring of $52 million over the period as well as a 9.55% ROE. Acceleration of tax benefits to offset customer increases were improved for the first year with years 2 and 3 to be determined later. COVID-19 in electric vehicle regulatory assets were also approved for recovery. Third, on the 22nd of June, the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission issued an order approving increase in PECO’s annual natural gas distribution revenues of $29 million, reflecting an ROE of 10.24%. And fourth, on July 14, the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities unanimously approved ASIS settlement in both the electric distribution rate case as well as our AMI meter and network deployment and cost recovery. The rate case settlement was for $41 million revenue increase and a 9.6% ROE. There will be no rate impact to customers until January 1, 2022, due to improved offsets from acceleration of tax benefits. We are excited about the AMI decision that will allow us to bring the benefits of this technology to our customers in South Jersey. We’ve also had several rate cases still in progress including Del Margo Delaware’s electric case where we expected in the third quarter, the PECO electric case in the fourth quarter and ComEd’s annual formula rate filing in December. And overall, we’re very pleased with the progress in advancing progressive regulatory designs that benefit our customers while easing regulatory burden and improving visibility for our utilities. As a reminder, we expect nearly 100% of our rate base growth will be covered by alternative mechanisms by the end of our planning period, a differentiator for our utilities when compared to our peers. And more details on the rate cases can be found on Slides 21 through 28 of the appendix. And before discussing our gross margin update on Slide 14, I want to remind you that we will not be providing any ExGen disclosures beyond 2021 at this time. And given the separation, we expect to provide the 2022 hedge disclosures closer to completion when we’re able to give a full financial picture for new spin-off company. Turning to the table on gross margin, there is no change to the 2021 gross margin since last quarter. In 2021, open gross margin is up $750 million relative to the first quarter primarily due to the impact of higher prices across all regions and the execution of $50 million of our new business in [indiscernible]. Our mark-to-market hedges were down $600 million due to our highly hedged position, partially offset by the execution of power new business. We executed $150 million of power new business in the quarter and $50 million of non-power new business. I’ll stop there. Thank you and I’ll now turn the call back to Chris for his closing remarks.
Chris Crane:
Thanks, Joe. Appreciate it. Turning to Slide 15, I’ll close on our priorities and commitments. We will meet or exceed our financial commitments, delivering earnings within our guidance range and maintaining a strong balance sheet. We will complete preparations to separate the business, including obtaining the regulatory approvals. At Exelon Utilities, we will prudently and effectively deploy nearly $6.6 billion of capital to the benefit of our customers and to help meet our state’s energy policy goals, and we will work with our regulators to ensure timely recovery of these investments. We will continue to advocate for clean energy and climate policies with the new administration commerce in our states to put the country on the path to meeting the carbon reduction goals that all desire. And we will continue to partner and support our customers in the communities that we serve. Thank you. And I’ll now open it up for questions. Before I do that, though, I have one error in my prepared reading. I said we’re at impasse on the nuclear issues on the bill. And that’s not where the impasse is. We’ve resolved the nuclear issues. We’re working with all the constituents on other elements. So just want to make sure that my blender, there didn’t go too far down the path of what the hell is going on. But with that, I’ll open it up for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] The first question will be from Julien Dumoulin-Smith of Bank of America. Your line is open. Go ahead, please.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hi, good morning. Thanks for the opportunity.
Chris Crane:
Good morning.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
So I’ll let the legislative comment on Illinois. I know it’s dynamic, and there is probably not too much more you can comment on there. But I’d love just in a moment, if you can talk more high level with respect to the federal efforts – And perhaps outside of Illinois, can you speak a little bit to the ability to potentially tap into this CNC program, specifically in other states like Maryland and Pennsylvania as well as the ability perhaps in some of the states that have various programs, so should we say, true-up against future pressures should those prove insufficient against pressures on power cures and renewables into the future?
Chris Crane:
I’m going to add a little bit more color on to Illinois and then let Kathleen talk about the federal side. The governor in his administration, the leaders in the legislature have a really tough job to do. They are bringing together coalitions that have, in cases different priorities and as a member of inputting into these coalitions, we’re at a point that we need to figure out how to best support our leaders, so they are able to execute on legislation that that supports all within the right timing, within the right economics. But we’re here to support and we recognize the tough job ahead of our leaders, especially in the legislature committee leaders being able to bring something to fruition. So I just want to make sure that we’re clear on that point. And with that, I’ll turn it over to Kathleen to talk about the federal.
Kathleen Barron:
Sure. Good morning, Julien. So while we’re certainly very grateful for the attention in washing to – in Washington to the importance of continuing the operation of the existing fleet in order to achieve climate goals. What’s going on is there are a number of policy tools that are under discussion and I’ll sort of take them in order, while there, as Chris mentioned, has been a production tax credit for nuclear introduced in both the House and Senate, there are discussions of a clean energy standard potentially being developed for the reconciliation bill. And you asked about CMC, I think what you mean is COE grant program that has been discussed potential inclusion in the infrastructure bill. So those are three very different kinds of policy solutions, the first two being far more comprehensive and ones that, as you mentioned, in Maryland, Pennsylvania and other states, in the existing nuclear team potentially seeing a significant amount of support and as Chris said, providing a real benefit to the climate. The grant program, little bit more challenging and more limited given the limited amount of funding that will be available under that program at least as it’s currently drafted. The real point though, is that all of these programs are just sort of proposed programs. Nothing has yet been enacted as you know and so while we’re watching it very closely and again, very grateful for the growing amount of support for preserving fleet through federal legislation. The reality is that, as Chris said, we need to make decisions based on laws that have actually been enacted and nothing has yet come to fruition in D.C. as of yet.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Yes. No, I appreciate that very much. If I can give us the business or the attention to the other side of the business a bit more. As you think about opportunities describing from your peers on carbon-free attributes and specifically some of the new novel off takers like miners, can you speak to the willingness with some of your counterparties, especially considering the extent of your C&I relationships already to perhaps pay a premium and contract directly with some of your nuclear assets, if you don’t mind?
Chris Crane:
I’ll let Joe start and then Jim can jump in making sure we’ve got your question right here.
Joe Nigro:
Yes, Julien, if I understand your question, I think you’re asking with some of the what some of these larger companies and customers are looking for, is there an opportunity with our carbon-free generation to marry to them? And there is…
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Yes.
Joe Nigro:
I’m sorry, go ahead.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
No, no. Yes. Exactly.
Joe Nigro:
Yes. So I think there is, and that’s something that the Constellation team is looking at, and we’ve created some products already – When you look at renewable off takes that we back to third-party customers, large third-party commercial industrial customers, and we had some success in different areas doing that as well as some of the things you mentioned these large mining companies cryptocurrency type companies, and I’ll let Jim fill in the blanks on there.
James McHugh:
Yes. Thanks, Joe. Hi, Julien. Yes, we definitely had a lot of demand from our customers for multiple areas of interest, right, in order for them to hit their sustainability targets. Are they interested in carbon-free energy, renewable energy both. And we’ve had some success in selling emission-free energy credits and other renewable type products to some of our larger C&I customers. They are also interested in just sustainability information and data around energy usage and how to be more efficient. So there is there is kind of this burgeoning suite of different products and services that we’re working through with our team and with our customers that they are very interested in. And we certainly have also seen the demand for direct off takes and large energy purchases for both data centers and mining as well as also people that are interested in the hydrogen business. So we have a pipeline of activity and different products and services that we’re talking to our customers about. And we will have more to come on that as that develops.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Excellent. I wish you all best of luck and will speak you soon.
Chris Crane:
Thanks.
Operator:
The next question will be from Stephen Byrd of Morgan Stanley. You may ask your question.
Stephen Byrd:
I wanted to just focus on the Texas assets for a little bit. There is been a lot of movement in terms of market design and a lot of those moves seen constructed, the four curves moved up a lot. I was just curious your latest thoughts in terms of how satisfied are you with the improvements in market design? I know I think it was a question in terms of whether those assets would be a fit unless there were improvements. What’s your general take on the progress in Texas?
Chris Crane:
I’ll let Kathleen start and then I’ll finish on the actual plant themselves and what we’re doing in what we see as a potential new market design.
Kathleen Barron:
Good morning. Stephen. So I think the progress is a little bit slow. The ERCOT leadership and the PUCT have really been focusing on how to react to what happened in February, and there is been, as you know, a lot of work associated with that. So the changes looking forward, I think are – in some was helpful in that we have finally seen a proposal for how to address weatherization. But on the broader question of market design, there is a lot of discussion, but we do not yet at this point have some solid proposals that have been either filed or approved. So while there are a number of stakeholders working on ways to address changes to the ORDC curve or introducing new products into the market, in my view, there is not enough progress yet to evaluate whether we’re going to see the kind of changes that will be necessary to prevent an event like everywhere from happening again.
Chris Crane:
So, on the plant side, which should help inform what we need from the market side, Bryan Hanson, who is our Chief Operating Officer, who is on the phone for the GenCo, as the team – technical team working through what the design basis temperature would be that we would have to install capital to be able to reach that. The plants in Texas were never designed for the weather that we saw and especially the duration of the weather that we saw. So if we go to something much lower in temperature as a design basis. We have to look at what adequately would preserve the piping trace is an insulation. Is it other type of barriers and what’s the most economic way to get there? And Bryan, I don’t know if you want to add anything, but that team is well underway at this point.
Bryan Hanson:
Chris, I would just add, we’ve built the model that has some certain assumptions on temperature, wind speed, prolonged longevity of the weather event that will calculate the engineering changes we need to make to the plant, in which case then we will be able to price that out. And then once the weatherization standards are published and accepted in ERCOT, we can then tune that model to come up with our final outcomes and then establish the price points for those plants.
Chris Crane:
And that will definitely have to feed into what ERCOT is doing on market design. Just as we saw in PJM some years back on the reliability standards that they were looking for, there was an expense to that. We all were willing or many of us were willing to invest that into that reliability, but we have to have some assurance that we are going to get a return on that invested capital.
Stephen Byrd:
Very helpful. And it’s fair that we still have to wait and see how the rules develop to figure out sort of what your stance is with those assets. So, that’s all very fair. I wanted to shift over to the utility. You gave a very good thorough update on the utility. I wanted to just step back, at a high level, utility is already an above-average grower, but I was just curious, are there – what are the biggest categories of sort of upside potential in terms of growth of the utility business that you are most excited about really a multiyear period, not so much in the near-term, but sort of longer term?
Chris Crane:
Let me turn it over to Calvin Butler.
Calvin Butler:
Hey. Thanks, Steve and good morning. I would sit back and say our opportunities is really in partnering with each of our jurisdictions to understand what their needs are and how we are really hardening the system and building resiliency throughout. As you sit back and look, I think our efforts around our path to clean, as Chris talked about and Joe talked about earlier is really understanding where they are taking us and electrifying our entire distribution system, also in really setting up our gas distribution system for the future. And replacing that infrastructure is also a key ingredient in several of our jurisdictions. In addition to that, around the security of the overall system as well. So, when we look at where we are going, electrifying our vehicle fleet, electrification of our system, the replacement of our gas system and also ensuring that it’s secure are really our opportunities across each of our jurisdictions.
Stephen Byrd:
Thanks Calvin. That’s all I have. I appreciate it.
Operator:
The next question will be from Steve Fleishman at Wolfe Research. Your line is open. You may ask your question.
Steve Fleishman:
Thank you. Good morning. My questions are focused on Illinois. Just we have seen a decent move up in power prices recently. And particularly, I guess, in the near-term, just any sense on – is there any chance that, that could be enough to wait this out longer with the plants?
Chris Crane:
I can give you the beginning, which is the end and then Joe can fill in the blanks. No. It doesn’t give us what we need. But Joe?
Joe Nigro:
Thank you, Chris and good morning Steve. It really isn’t that simple. In certainly Steve, it’s very important. As you know, the plants face near-term financial challenges, and as Chris said in his script, after legislation closes the plant is the right economic decision and obviously not an easy one. I would tell you, we have seen an uptick in energy prices many times before, never of the help. And when you look at it at the front end of the power curve is up more materially than the back end of the power curve in terms of pricing. In addition, we have seen capacity prices decline. The stability and certainty provided by a contract better address – clearly better address the financial challenges of these plants without being exposed to all this market volatility. In addition, the term of the contract helps obviously with things like capital planning and the efficiency of that, obviously, our workforce and personnel planning. And we just think it’s a much more certain outcome and...
Steve Fleishman:
I mean is there any appreciation that to the flip side that the law as proposed at least would actually be below where current price levels are in the near-term?
Chris Crane:
It’s something that we see today. But we have seen this stance before. Something happens in the market, the near-term rises, it’s flat or low on the back side as we drift into the above years. We come right back down. And so we really have to focus on the long-term viability and the economics versus the cyclical nature of the markets, the lows and all the variables. We are agreeing to and support a significant renewable build-out within the legislation. We know that, that will have a depressing factor on prices as low demand periods with excess generation will bring the prices down, and that will drop not only the forwards, but the back here. So, it’s – there is consumer protection in the legislation that ensures we don’t over earn, but the – to bet on the come that these forwards are going to maintain and eventually lift the out years is a gamble that we are not willing to take.
Steve Fleishman:
I guess my other question just on the law is it doesn’t seem like anyone, as you mentioned, is debating the nuclear provisions, but the issue, as I guess the governor said, is that that – as he kind of commented on the labor unions that they are preventing potential job loss in 2045 over certain job loss in 2021. Just – can you maybe – do the union group not believe you are shutting the plants or are they just willing to take potential benefits in 2045 over 2021?
Chris Crane:
First of all, let me make it clear. We are not engaged and involved in that negotiation. And as far as the shutdown of the coal and the jobs issues that go along with that. We understand what the union is asking for. We understand what the governor is asking for, and it’s put on the lap of the legislative body to figure out what’s the right thing to meet the state goals, continue to have adequate employment certainty. And so it’s a tough situation. But I can say that’s not a fight that we are involved in. And we are very dependent on the support for our power plants to be maintained by our union partners, building trades in the IDW. They are very aware of the dire situation for the nuclear plants. So, I don’t think that their dedication to saving the jobs at these plants are in question. They have some other priorities and other constituents within their organizations that are dealing with issues. So, I would just leave it at that.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
And the next question will be from [Technical Difficulty] JPMorgan. Please ask your question.
Unidentified Analyst:
Hi. Good morning.
Chris Crane:
Good morning.
Unidentified Analyst:
Just wanted to turn to the storm offset for a second here, the $600 million-ish that you were targeting here from – to offset the rate, just wondering if you could help update us as far as how that’s progressing, where you see yourself versus what you are targeting and how much is left to do at this point?
Joe Nigro:
Yes. Good morning. So, we did achieve more in the second quarter than when we had done our planning originally in Q1. What we would have expected to achieve, we expected most of the share [Technical Difficulty]. We have achieved somewhere between 20% and 25% of the offsets that we expected. And we said they would come in a number of areas, when you look at deferral of cost and one-time cost savings opportunities, whether it’s things like contracting dollars, holding labor vacancies, reductions in travel and entertainment expense, deferring non-critical maintenance capital, those types of things. There were some revenue opportunities when you see the improvement in treasuries. We talked about our technology ventures investments. So, we are ahead of what we expected to do at this point in the year. And we are continuing to work hard on delivering the balance of what we committed to.
Unidentified Analyst:
Got it. That’s very helpful there. And then turning towards the utility business as a whole here, given the potential moving pieces at ComEd and then some positive outcomes, it seems like with Maryland and DC with the multiyear plans, better outlooks in those jurisdictions. How should we think about both the trajectory of utility earned ROEs? And how this might impact the 6% to 8% utility growth rate that you guys see?
Calvin Butler:
This is Calvin. I would just sit back and tell you that we are very confident in achieving the stated financial performance for each of our utilities and to your reference on the multiyear plans that have gone taking place in Maryland and in DC and Joe outlined in terms of the rate cases across our business. It goes to show you the partnership that we have established with our jurisdictions and understanding what their needs are and how our investments are meeting those goals. We are committed to $6.6 billion annual investments in capital and recovery of real-time on that capital. And the alternative ratemaking that has been taking place across those utilities indicate that we are recovering and returning on that capital in real time. If you think about the jurisdictions in which we operate, they have typically been some of the more difficult across the country. And we are changing that landscape. So, I am very proud of the team across each of the utilities and really building that partnership and showing that we understand the needs, and we are meeting those objectives.
Chris Crane:
Joe want...
Joe Nigro:
Yes, I would just add one thing on top of what Calvin said, which I thought he did a very comprehensive job should be – as you know, we target 9% to 10% ROEs in all of our utilities. And this quarter, you saw us jump 50 basis points back across the composite to 9.4% and that factors into our 6% to 8% projection.
Unidentified Analyst:
Got it, that’s very helpful. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question will be from Michael Lapides of Goldman Sachs. Go ahead please.
Michael Lapides:
Hi guys. Couple of ExGen questions, first of all, the offsets or the O&M savings you are trying to realize this year to help offset the winter storm Uri year impact. How much of that do you think will remain in place as we go out into 2022 or 2023 or should we assume there was a sizable step back up in O&M in those years?
Joe Nigro:
Yes. I think what we have said is a lot of that is one-time in nature. When you think about deferring some things that you, ultimately, need to get done. I talked about things like labor vacancies and contracting, travel and entertainment. At this point, a lot of that is one-time in nature. But what I would add to that is, as you know, Michael, we have done a good job across the enterprise and as well as at ExGen in really driving efficiency cost here in the last 5 years or 6 years. And we continue to look at new ways to do that, whether it’s leverage in technology or the scale of our business when you look at our supply organization doing a nice job in that area. And we will continue to challenge ourselves. But some of these costs specifically are going to be one-time in the nature.
Chris Crane:
Yes. I can tell you that each cost as we bring it back in, in 2022 will be scrutinized against what is the new workplace of the future, what’s the productivity we are able to achieve with these reductions. It is not a healthy recipe to forgo capital maintenance or required O&M maintenance and let the systems decay. So, you can buy yourself some time on some of those decisions. But at the end of the day, reliability on the system is critical and we will watch that. But there are other areas that there is teams working on reentry, looking at staffing needs as we go through the design of the organizations. As we look at the split, there are savings that we are not ready to announce yet, but that will be coming into play in each one of the companies in the design of the future state of two entities, strong entities working on their own.
Michael Lapides:
Meaning when you think about the two entities as separate entities, we should think that there are costs – I don’t want to call them synergy, but there are cost opportunities as separate entities versus maybe having dissynergies on the cost side?
Chris Crane:
Yes, that – what you focus on at the start is making sure you attack the synergies. And that’s what we are doing. And then from there, when you are attacking the dissynergies, it will expose potential business ships and how we perform. So, we are working through that Bridget Reidy, our Chief Operating Officer of Corporate is leading. A lot of that as long as – along with our project management team that is daily following each one of the designs, staffing, expenses and will continue to report out to the senior team on where we are at on obtaining. The first goal is to try to minimize, neutralize, do away with any dissynergies. And then from there, what new efficiencies can we drive into the business.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. And one last one just on Byron and Dresden, is there a scenario where you could push out the refueling outages until next year, meaning early next year and keep them afloat or keep them operating through the end of this year or is that kind of physically or for safety reasons impossible to do?
Chris Crane:
What happens at the end of cycle, which we are heading towards on these plants, your fuel becomes less and less effective and the term is coast down. And so you start power out of the reactor – thermal megawatts out of the reactor is reduced, which compounds to the electric megawatts produced. And so you get to a point that you are running within months or so period. You are running inefficient steam paths and inefficient operations. So, you make the call as to start and to shut the facility down. The one thing to reiterate in shutting down a nuclear plant, it is – the goal is you shutdown, you cool down, you disassemble the reactor, you offload all of the fuel into the spent fuel pool and you relinquish the license to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and there is no path back from that. There is no regulatory path back. And so what we do is start into the phases of the chosen decommissioning trust fund and it comes out of our expense column. It’s in the prefunded category of the decommissioning trust. So, it’s irreversible. And running a year is physically impossible. Running an extra month is very challenging on the steep supply system and maintaining adequate controls on the physics.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Thank you, Chris.
Operator:
That concludes the Q&A session. And I will turn it back to Chris Crane.
Chris Crane:
I want to thank everybody for the time this morning for joining the call. We are working hard to run the businesses at best-in-class levels and taking the necessary steps to set up two strong independent companies. There is quite a focus on both of those goals, and we will continue to update you as we go along. We appreciate your support. And with that, I will close the call out.
Operator:
Thanks to all our participants for joining us today. This concludes our presentation. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.
Operator:
Hello, and welcome to Exelon's First Quarter Earnings Call. My name is Amanda, and I'll be your event specialist today. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. Please note, today’s conference is being recorded. During the presentation, we will have a question and answer session. [Operator Instructions] It is now my pleasure to turn today's program over to Dan Eggers, Senior Vice President of Corporate Finance. The floor is yours.
Dan Eggers :
Thank you, Amanda. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our first quarter 2021 earnings conference call. Leading the call today are Chris Crane, Exelon's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Joe Nigro, Exelon's Chief Financial Officer. They're joined by other members of Exelon's management team who will be available to answer your questions following our prepared remarks. We issued our earnings release this morning along with the presentation. All of which can be found in the Investor Relations section of Exelon's website. The earnings release and other matters which we discuss during today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ from our forward-looking statements based on factors and assumptions discussed in today's material and comments made during this call. Please refer to today's 8-K and Exelon's other SEC filings for discussions of risk factors and other factors, including uncertainties surrounding the planned separation, that may cause results to differ from management's projections, forecasts and expectations. Today's presentation also includes references to adjusted operating earnings and other non-GAAP measures. Please refer to the information contained in the appendix of our presentation and our earnings release for reconciliations between the non-GAAP measures and the nearest equivalent GAAP measures. I'll now turn the call over to Chris Crane, Exelon's CEO.
Chris Crane:
Thanks, Dan, and good morning, everybody, and thanks for joining us. As you've seen from our earlier releases and notifications, we had mixed results in the first quarter. We performed well across our businesses outside of the challenges from 5 days in February due to the Texas weather event. Overall, our first quarter GAAP loss was $0.30 per share and our non-GAAP loss was $0.06 per share. Exelon Utilities performed well operationally and financially during the quarter, delivering $0.72 per share, which is $0.11 better than the first quarter last year. At ExGen, we lost $0.58 per share overall, with the February weather event cost a $0.90 in the first quarter. The event was unprecedented. We continue to investigate the multiple complex factors that led to our plant outages. And we are working with ERCOT regulators and other stakeholders to ensure an event like this does not happen again. As you saw in our 8-K last week, we updated our full year losses at $150 million due to the updated load meter data in ERCOT default payments that differed from our original estimate. In addition, we reaffirmed our full year guidance of $2.60 to $3 per share. We continue to work on mitigating this approximately $1 billion loss, and expect to offset the loss by $410 million to $490 million after taxes through a combination of mostly onetime cost reductions and deferral of nonessential maintenance and revenue opportunities. Joe is going to go in much more detail on that in his presentation. Turning to the operations. Despite the extreme cold winters, and the winter storms, the pandemic conditions, our utilities had a strong operational performance, delivering reliability, affordable electricity and gas for our consumers. All the utilities achieved first quartile operating performance in outage duration and frequency. BGE, ComEd and PHI were in top decile in outage duration. Customer operations metrics remained strong across the utilities. PECO and BGE's customer satisfaction levels were top decile. ComEd was top quartile. And PHI just missed top quartile, but improved year-over-year. On the generation front, in the face of extreme temperatures, winter storms, our nuclear plants provided 37 terawatt hours of reliable, resilient and clean to the grid of the citizens of Illinois, Pennsylvania, New York and Maryland. The fleet capacity factor of 95.3% was what we reached for the quarter. The spring has been active -- switching to policy. The spring has been active on the policy front with momentum building at both federal and state levels for policies that recognize the value of existing nuclear and would put the country on a path to a net 0 future. Both ExGen and the Utilities are well positioned to benefit from these policies and the transition to a clean energy economy. On the federal level, the Biden administration has set out an ambitious goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50% to 52% by 2030. Nuclear provides more than half of the carbon-free emission electricity in the U.S., with Exelon plants providing 12% of all the carbon-free energy in the United States. The administration is clear that preserving the existing nuclear fleet is key in meeting the goals that they have set. The administration's infrastructure proposal, the American Jobs Plan, would enact policies to help reach the goal. It includes a clean electricity standard that would require 100% clean electricity by 2035, with existing nuclear qualifying as clean; incentives to build 500,000 EV charging stations by 2030; and for 20 gigawatts of high-voltage transmission lines to be built to support the renewable build-out. We're encouraged that the administration and members of Congress recognize the importance of preserving the nuclear fleet to meet the country's clean energy and climate goals. The timing in the outcome of federal legislation is highly uncertain. And in any case, it will be too late to reverse the retirement decisions for Byron and Dresden. Our states are also advancing clean energy policies. In Illinois, six energy policy reform bills have been introduced that would drive the transition to clean energy and address climate change. The legislative leaders are meeting to craft a package from the various bills that can be considered this session. We're encouraged by the expression of support that continued -- for the continued operation of the nuclear plants. However, the details really matter. A bill needs to pass before the end of the regular session, and it needs to provide adequate support for continuing to invest in the Illinois fleet. Current market prices do not continue to meet -- do not allow us to continue to meet our payroll, paying our property taxes, and covering other significant costs and risks of operating these assets. Without adequate policy, as I've stated, to you that we will retire uneconomic plants beginning this fall. If you take a look at what happened in New Jersey last week, the Board concluded that the financial challenges faced by nuclear plants there justified a maximum ZEC of $10 per megawatt hour. The same voices that are arguing in Illinois that our plants are profitable were overruled in New Jersey's decision. The commission in New Jersey emphasized that maintaining the existing nuclear plants was critical to achieving the state's emission goals and -- significantly less costly than replacing nuclear with other 0 free carbon generation. This is true in Illinois. Keeping the nuclear plants running is better option for the customers than trying to replace them with all renewables in storage. At 12 times the cost, higher cost than preserving the nuclear plants, it would cost the Illinois consumers over $80 billion more to achieve the same emissions. We've been advocating for policy changes in Illinois for more than two years because I feel that we have a duty to our customers to preserve every opportunity to correct flawed policies and keep these critical energy resources running. But we're almost out of time, and we'll prematurely retire these assets in the fall if the policy reforms are not passed in this session. Turning to clean energy policy in Pennsylvania. The Senate is moving forward on a bill that would set a state goal for transportation, electrification and authorized electric utilities to develop EV infrastructure and plans authorize a recovery for these investments. We support these federal and state policy efforts and stand ready to enable this important transition to a clean energy future. Joe will talk about what our utilities are doing currently on EVs. Moving on to the separation update. Our team is working to get the separation done. We filed our applications for regulatory approval at FERC, the NRC, New York Public Service Commission in February. The NRC has indicated that our application is complete, and they expect to rule by November 30. In New York, comments are due on May 24. And we requested that the commission rule no later than their December 16 meeting. We're on track to get the necessary approvals so that we can close in the first quarter of next year. With that, I'll turn it over to Joe to go into the financial details.
Joe Nigro:
Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone. Today, I will cover our first quarter results, quarterly financial updates and our hedge disclosures. Turning first to Slide 9. As Chris mentioned, we recorded a loss of $0.06 per share on a non-GAAP basis for the first quarter, driven by the losses from the February weather event. Our utilities performed ahead of plan for the quarter, delivering a combined $0.72 per share this year, which was $0.11 per share higher than the first quarter of 2020. This was primarily driven by strong operational performance as well as the impacts of distribution rate cases. ExGen reported a loss of $0.58 per share for the quarter. Excluding the 5-day weather event in February, ExGen would have earned $0.32 per share as we had anticipated. However, specific to the weather event, we incurred a loss in the first quarter of $0.90 per share. A portion of this loss is due to some penalties or charges associated with our natural gas business, that we ultimately expect to be reduced through waivers and/or recovered from customers later in this year. As we disclosed in our 8-K last week, we estimate our full year loss from the weather event to be approximately $900 million to $1.1 billion pretax or $670 million to $820 million after tax. We also continue to expect to offset between $550 million and $650 million pretax or $410 million and $490 million after tax for the full year 2021. These offsets will occur primarily at ExGen through a combination of enhanced revenue opportunities, deferral of selected nonessential maintenance and primarily onetime cost savings, and are mostly expected in the second half of this year. Holdco recorded a loss of $0.20 per share for the quarter, which was a larger loss than is typical in the first quarter and was driven by a tax adjustment required by GAAP to partially offset the tax benefit recorded at ExGen due to the Texas losses. This amount will reverse over the next three quarters, and ultimately will not have an impact on full year results. As Chris stated, we are reaffirming our guidance range of $2.60 a share to $3 per share, and you can see the details on Slide 16 in the appendix. Moving on to Slide 10. Looking at our utility returns on a consolidated basis, our trailing 12-month ROE as of the first quarter has improved to 8.9% from 8.7% last quarter. The 20 basis point increase was primarily due to higher earnings across the operating companies in the first quarter. As a reminder, the calculation is backward-looking. So you should continue to see some pressure on ROEs over the next couple of quarters as we work off the impacts of COVID-19, low interest rates at ComEd and the 2020 storms. We do expect to be in our targeted range of 9% to 10% by year-end. And looking into the future, we remain focused on delivering strong earned returns at the Utilities in supporting our growth targets. Turning to the next Slide 11. Since the last call, there were some important developments on the regulatory front. First, on March 30, PECO filed an electric distribution case with the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission. PECO is seeking a revenue increase of $246 million for continued investments in electric distribution infrastructure, which will make the local energy grid stronger and more resilient, enhance service, and help the company deliver safe, reliable and clean energy for consumers. In addition, the filing proposes customer relief offerings for eligible residential and small business customers, and we expect an order in December of this year. Second, ComEd filed its annual distribution formula rate update with the Illinois Commerce Commission on April 16, seeking a $51 million increase to electric distribution base rates. This year's formula rate update file in March ComEd's first request for a distribution rate increase in 4 years. The filing will support investments to expand access to clean energy through private and community solar and support the growing demand for electric vehicles. Additionally, we continue to make investments and make the power grid more resilient to severe storms, such as those experienced in Northern Illinois last year. We expect to receive an order by early December. We also have several rate cases still in progress, including orders in multiyear plans for Pepco D.C and Pepco Maryland, which are expected in the second quarter. We continue to have constructive regulatory relationships across our jurisdictions, and are working with our regulators, states and communities to support their clean energy and climate goals. More details on our rate cases can be found on Slides 20 through 28 of the appendix. Slide 12 provides one example of how Exelon Utilities are working with our regulators and states to make investments that will address the climate crisis and help our customers. Our utilities pay -- play a critical role advancing electric vehicles in our communities. This includes both the installation of publicly available charging stations and investment in the system to support this infrastructure. Exelon Utilities have been leaders in this rapidly growing space by expanding charging infrastructure, offering rebates and incentives and innovative rates, while electrifying public transportation to deliver convenient, affordable and equally accessible clean transportation options. Our clean electric transportation programs aim to support nearly 100,000 current electric vehicle drivers across our service territories, aligned with state climate goals, and improve overall air quality for all our customers and communities. To date, electric vehicle programs have been approved in Maryland, D.C., Delaware and New Jersey, with approval pending in Pennsylvania, as part of PECO's recent rate case filing. ComEd also has several ongoing educational and outreach initiatives. And several of the bills Chris spoke about would provide incentives for EV infrastructure. The transportation sector currently represents about 1/3 of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. Urban areas, like many of our service territories, are disproportionately affected by air pollution and the negative effects of climate change. One way we aim to help address this is by advocating for and helping to usher in cleaner, zero emission transportation particularly in underserved communities. Our programs are designed to reduce common barriers to electric vehicle adoption, including range anxiety, total cost of vehicle ownership and lack of education and awareness among consumers. Cleaner vehicles on the road help our cities and states meet their environmental goals, reduce their carbon footprint, bring cleaner air to communities, and create economic opportunity through job creation and reduced energy costs. Additionally, Exelon's utilities are leading by example in setting an aggressive goal to electrify our fleet, including both light and heavy-duty vehicles. We have committed to electrify 30% of our fleet by 2025 and 50% by 2030. Electrifying 50% of the fleet could avoid more than 65,000 metric tons of emissions cumulatively from 2020 to 2030. That's the equivalent to the carbon removed by 1 million trees planted and grown for 10 years. On Slide 13, we provide a gross margin update. For 2021, total gross margin is down $150 million versus the fourth quarter call, due to the increase in the estimated impact of the February weather event. The midpoint of our current estimate of the gross margin impact from this event is $950 million. This number is lower than the midpoint of our loss range of $1 billion because it does not include bad debt, which is captured in O&M. Excluding the impacts of the February weather event, gross margin is flat to last quarter. Open gross margin is up $300 million relative to our prior disclosure, primarily due to higher prices in NI Hub and West Hub. Our mark-to-market of hedges were down $200 million due to our hedge position, offsetting the increase in open gross margin partially offset by the execution of $100 million of power new business. We also executed $50 million in non-power new business during the quarter. Thank you. And I will now turn back the call to Chris for his closing remarks.
Chris Crane:
Thanks, Joe. Turning to Slide 14. I'll close on our priorities and commitments. We will deliver or exceed our financial commitments, delivering earnings within our guidance range and to maintain strong balance sheet. We will complete preparations to separate the businesses, including the regulatory approvals. At Exelon Utilities, we will prudently and effectively deploy nearly $6.6 billion of capital to benefit our customers and help meet the needs of our states energy policy goals. We'll work with our regulators to ensure timely recovery on these investments. We'll continue to advocate for clean energy and climate policies with the new administration, Congress and our states to put our country on the path to meeting our carbon reduction goals. And we'll continue to partner with the support of our customers and our communities that we serve. So thank you all for joining us. And with that, we'll open it up for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And your first question comes from Stephen Byrd with Morgan Stanley.
Stephen Byrd:
I wanted to just get your latest thoughts on ERCOT and market design. We've certainly seen a lot of activity. And you all gave some prepared remarks on that. But just curious, it strikes me it looks like it's a little less likely that the state may go in the direction of sort of fixed resiliency or capacity light payments. But just curious what you're sort of seeing and what direction you think we may take in terms of market design.
Chris Crane:
Yes. Let me have Kathleen cover that.
Kathleen Barron:
Yes. I think there are a number of ideas under discussion in the legislature. And I guess I wouldn't say that it's less likely that the state will ultimately choose to go down the path of setting a reliability standard. That idea does have some support and is being discussed openly, as are other changes, for example, to the ORDC curve to sort of lengthen it and lower the cap. And then there are other ideas out there as well. So I think there's active discussion in both the House and the Senate over whether and when the legislature should act. There are some who think it should move forward and set some expectations and let the PUCT work on a market design over the balance of the year, whereas others are thinking maybe they'll wait and do it later in the year. So it's a little bit early to tell how those conversations are going to land. But I think the concept of setting as all the other markets do, a reliability standard and letting the market operator design a market-based way to get there is still under active discussion.
Stephen Byrd:
That's really helpful. And then maybe going to PJM and FERC. And we've seen a lot of activity around the treatment of MOPR. And just curious there as well your latest thinking on sort of where we may be headed and kind of broader implications, given it looks like we may see a reversal.
Kathleen Barron:
Yes. There are sort of two avenues where that's being discussed. First, at the RTOs themselves. And as you know, PJM has a stakeholder process to work through. How to reform MOPR, they have direction from their board that they should reform it. But the question is how, and they've laid out a proposal, and they'll be taking comments and working towards the FERC filing in the summer to express their view of how it should be reformed. And then, ultimately, of course, it will be up to FERC. You have two commissioners who are open that they think MOPR should be reformed. The other three, less transparent in terms of how they would vote. So I think there's certainly going to be an effort on PJM's part to make a change. And then the question will be how the votes line up at the commission once that filing is made.
Operator:
And your next question comes from Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research.
Steve Fleishman:
So a couple of questions, I guess, focused on the nuclear. So first, in Illinois, I know there's been several proposals. The most recent, I think, was from the governor, related also to the audit that he set up. Could you give your views on whether that proposal would be sufficient to keep the Dresden and Byron open?
Chris Crane:
Yes. I mean all of you have written on the economics of the plant and the reality of what the bill is starting at. I think it's -- from what we've heard, it's open a negotiation. But just going from the Street analyst opinion and what we've seen, its starting point is not adequate to keep the plants continued operations going.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. And then just to be clear on Illinois, in the event that maybe they just can't get a build on this session, and they try to go to the veto session. Obviously, you're targeting to shut the plants before then. So can you just confirm clearly whether, if they just don't get something done this session, the plants will shut, Dresden and Byron?
Chris Crane:
Yes. Sure. We've been real clear about that, but we're still optimistic. Most state or legislative bodies, the work comes to an end towards the end of the session. There's a lot of stakeholders involved here. There's a lot of voices that are inputting into it. And the legislature has a tough job of building a single bill out of six suggested bills and making sure that they take care of their constituents as well as all of the other stakeholders involved in the process. So we're not giving up. We're confident that we've got adequate support within the administration and within the legislature, and we'll see how it goes. That said, we have been clear for a couple of years. And it's just the reality we cannot continue to run uneconomic plants and challenge the balance sheets of the genco or the holdco. We've got commitments. As I said earlier, we're going to make payroll. We've got to pay pensions. We got to pay our bills. We have to have an investment grade credit rating that we can access capital markets. And when you have plants that are uneconomic and pulling you down, it's a tough decision, but it's one that we've made. And we'll continue to be optimistic that we can work with the stakeholders and the legislative body and the administration. But short of getting something done, we'll have to start to proceed what we are already doing the planning proceed for the shutdown. You can't order fuel. You can't do capital improvement. You can't do a lot of stuff in the face of uncertainty, which causes you to spend hundreds of millions to billions of dollars on plants that just aren't going to support themselves.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. One final question on nuclear. Just the -- there was a story, I think, in -- on Bloomberg this morning, talking about a nuclear EPP being discussed in the Biden -- with the Biden administration and legislators. Could you talk about what you're hearing on that and whether we're seeing momentum in that as part of the Biden infrastructure plan?
Kathleen Barron:
Steve, this is Kathleen. I can take that one. As Chris mentioned, the Biden proposal is for a clean energy standard. That's inclusive of existing nuclear and is technology neutral. That is what their proposal is. That's on the table. We saw the story this morning as well. But of course, their plan does not currently include a PTC for existing nuclear nor -- for existing nuclear nor has one been introduced in either chamber. So it's obviously helpful that there is a growing focus on the fact that the existing nuclear fleet is integral to getting to any of the carbon targets that has been set. And we welcome that sort of change in focus and a growing understanding. But the challenge remains that we're not yet even to the point where we know, is Congress going to move forward on a bipartisan basis? Does a bill need to be drafted that would be consistent with reconciliation? And the timing and the outcome is just far too uncertain for us to make any decisions here based on that. Obviously, to the extent something happens in Congress, that's a long-term positive for the company. But just one Reuters story is not enough to -- we have to make decisions based on current economics and current policy.
Operator:
And your next question comes from James Thalacker with BMO Capital Markets.
James Thalacker:
I just want to touch briefly on the governor's legislative proposal. And I guess his proposal for an application of an $8 a ton carbon mechanism. I know it's early. And as you -- but as you think about the final market structure and the - a pretty clean generation stack in Illinois already, how do you see the pass-through of this potential tax on power prices? In New York, you've seen about a 35% -- 25% to 35% pass-through, but it's not clear to me how you can sort of tax on the state supply from Wisconsin and Illinois. So where do you guys kind of see the potential uplift in power prices in its early stages, understanding the final market structure is yet to be determined?
Chris Crane:
It's a difficult -- I'm going to let Kathleen get into the technical details. But it's difficult for a single state that is an island surrounded by other states without the same policy not to have leakage coming in. So as we pointed out, if we shut down those four reactors that we're talking about, they will be replaced by leakage, the energy coming in. So we will go backwards in that area. How you monitor that and how you tax on it is a very difficult thing in an island. Kathleen, I don't know if you want to go into more technical.
Kathleen Barron:
I think you covered it. I mean I think the issue is when you have a national carbon price, you would see a high pass-through rate given the amount of fossil that's still in the stack. But when it's a single state, it's just -- our estimates are that there would be a very small impact on carbon energy prices due to out-of-state plants running more frequently.
James Thalacker:
Okay. Great. And I just wanted to see if you could kind of give me a quick update on the outage with the cell plant and what's your outlook for the cost and the timing for its return.
Chris Crane:
Brian Hansen, he's our COO of generation. You want to cover that?
Brian Hansen:
Yes. Thanks, James. Yes, the LaSalle Unit 2 reactor was out of service for an extra 34days when we found through maintenance activities higher than expected deterioration of 2,000 reactor recirculation system. And because of the size and location of these valves, we had to design and deploy special welding and machining tools to make the necessary repairs which were required prior to returning that unit to service. It involves several hundred people given the difficulty of that work. That unit has since been returned to service. The cost was a significant impact for that particular plant. And these types of risks are the kinds of things that we have to take into account when we are assessing the financial viability of each of those plants. But that unit has been returned to service and ready for a summer run.
Operator:
And your next question comes from Shahriar Pourreza with Guggenheim.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Chris, Joe, have you had any conversations with the agencies kind of about the SpinCo since the fallout we saw in Texas? Just trying to get a bit of a sense if this is more of a structural risk going forward as we're thinking about sort of the general business model for the IPPs or just kind of an anomalistic situation. I mean, especially as we're sort of thinking about the standalone ExGen entity and maintaining IG ratings post spin. And obviously, we understand that the metrics are extremely healthy. But I'm just kind of curious how they're thinking about the business -- maybe a little bit more qualitative factors post the weather event. I just have a follow-up.
Joe Nigro:
Yes. Sure. As you could imagine, we've had numerous contacts with the agencies since the event in February. And you saw, after the announcement on our fourth quarter call of separation, they -- that Moody's and S&P published some preliminary thoughts on both generation and on the RemainCo or Exelon. On the 29th of April, S&P came out and updated some commentary on ExGen and affirm their investment-grade rating and the stable outlook. And it's important to note that they've also delinked them from the corporation effectively from the standpoint of the fact that we have announced separation. So we continue to have dialogue with each of the agencies. All three of them have generation rated investment grade currently. And we continue to expect that to happen in the future as we manage our business.
Chris Crane:
A key to that is managing the business and managing the risk and understanding the risk. It was an unprecedented weather event that was beyond potentially the design basis of the plants. And we have to take that into consideration as we look at our risk profile going forward. We will not continue to weather risk like that that could challenge the balance sheet and the investment-grade ratings.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Got it. And then just lastly, there's been some noise building on the Chicago franchise agreement. Is there sort of a path forward there? Any sense on time line? Anything on expectations you can share? I mean I just were curious if this is going to turn into a San Diego situation or not.
Chris Crane:
Joe Dominguez, we'll let cover that. I believe he's on.
Joe Dominguez:
Yes. First of all, Chicago is a world-class city, and we're privileged to serve it. And we want to continue that relationship. And we've been working with the city for some time on terms for a new franchise agreement. As you know, the franchise agreement continues until a new one is approved or until a new franchise -- or franchisee is selected. They are going to explore all their options. And I think they are going to follow a blueprint like San Diego used to solicit ideas. We have an RFI that's been issued. We'll participate in that RFI. We'll see if others do. And we'll see what ideas come out of that process. That's expected to close on May 28. In the meantime, we are continuing with the discussions around the new franchise agreement. And we're pretty confident that ComEd is going to be successful at the end. We have a lot to offer. We're leaning in on the city's priorities around energy efficiency, jobs, support for low-income families, clean and renewable energy and more. I think the most important thing for the city, and they've been very clear about this, is making the study reliable and resilient against some of the storms. We have talked on these calls about some of the storms we've experienced. We added ratio in August, where we had 110-mile per hour hurricane in-forced wins across our service territory. 15 tornadoes landed. It was the second most expensive storm in the U.S. this year. And unfortunately, that event has not been an anomaly. We saw unprecedented flooding coming off the lake in the summer. And just maybe 12 months earlier, we saw polar vortex that brought with it negative 30-degree weather. So the city, I think, is rightfully concerned about the changing weather from the climate crisis. And notwithstanding these weather events, Chris reviewed earlier some of our performance. We're not only top decile in SFI and Katy, but I think, best-in-class in both categories, first time for this company to achieve that. And we've been able to make the investments, keep residential rates low and so on. So I think we're doing what we need to do. We're investing philanthropically in the city. And I think it's important to note. I think we all know this, that serving cities alone is a pretty expensive proposition. The infrastructure is expensive doing any work in the city is expensive just because of the density of a existing infrastructure. You tend to have more of a concentration of low-income customers in the city for a variety of reasons. It's more expensive. When the city is part of a broader Chicago system, and the city accounts for about 1/3 of ComEd, we have the ability to use the horsepower and the talent not only within ComEd, but the Exelon family of companies to come in, repair the system when it's damaged as a result of weather. But also, we have the financial wherewithal of the industry and the businesses and the people that live outside of Chicago in the suburbs to cover some of the costs for the cities more economically challenged citizens. So we think the whole package is going to be valuable. You mentioned the San Diego process. We've followed that for some time. I don't think there was, at the end of the day, anyone who actually competed for the franchise there. But it is a process. And it's a transparent process that we need to go through, and we appreciate that. And in the meantime, as I said, we're going to lean into it. If the city decides to go into in a different direction, they would have the pay ComEd upwards of $7 billion for the system, depending on the timing of the transaction. And because these systems were built in an interconnected way, we anticipate that there would be about $5 billion or more in separation costs that would take upwards of a decade to complete new substations, control centers computer platforms alike. So this is going to be a long road if the city goes in that direction. We understand this move within the fabric of the negotiations that we've been having with the city. And I'm confident that the proposal we're going to offer is going to allow us to continue this long-standing relationship. And we will be very fortunate to be able to continue to serve this great city.
Operator:
And your next question comes from Michael Weinstein with Credit Suisse.
Michael Weinstein:
On electric vehicle charging infrastructure. This is still pretty early days, I understand that. But is there -- at what point does this become a significant portion of CapEx opportunity? What do you think that opportunity is? And when do you think it really starts to kick in?
Calvin Butler:
Michael, this is Calvin. I would say we continue to look at EV infrastructure and partner with all of our jurisdictions on how we go about it. And Chris, I think it was no Joe outlined in detail what we're doing in each of our jurisdictions in terms of EV adoption, charging infrastructure and the like. Right now, it is not a significant piece of our capital plan. Chris alluded to the $6.6 billion that we will execute this year, and it's just scratching the surface. But at the end of the day, it is part of our business priorities moving forward. As you laid out 50% of our fleet will be electrified internally by 2030. And we continue to look at working with each of our jurisdictions to encourage them in that way in investing in infrastructure. So the bottom line is that it's a small portion of our total capital investment, but it is on our plan to continue to grow.
Chris Crane:
The infrastructure investment beyond the EV charging stations is something that our engineering units are working on between EV and distributed generation, upgrading lines, changing voltage levels that gets into a lot more complicated, but it's a bigger part of the investment.
Michael Weinstein:
Yes. That's what I was thinking of. Is there a tipping point or a point where the curve starts to really kick in gear? And what year do you think that approximately happens? And is this a 2030s type opportunity or more of a maybe late 2020s?
Chris Crane:
Yes. It's something we're working on now more for the distributed generation. There's analysis that goes into the circuits to make sure that we're not overloading them. And we're upgrading them as we see the demand go up. And so I think we're investing now a tipping point, I think it's going to be a gradual investment over a 10-year-plus period. It's not going to all of a sudden hit immediately one day. And I'll give you an example. Philadelphia Electric and BGE are upgrading their voltages on their distribution systems from 41.60 to 13.8 in anticipation of more distributed generation, but that will also support EV. So it gives us more capacity on the circuits to allow the customers to get the services they want.
Michael Weinstein:
Got you. Just one last question. On the New York Public Service Commission filing for separation, is there any reason why you think it might take longer than the end of the year to get an approval there?
Kathleen Barron:
This is Kathleen, Michael. I can take that. I mean we haven't even seen comments yet on the New York application. They were due at the end of the month. We had to ask for action by the end of the year, and we think the agency is capable of acting in that period. But of course, we need to see what the comments are. And we'll have a better sense once we do. We have targeted close in the first quarter of next year. So if we need a little bit extra time, whether in the New York case or at the NRC, we have accounted for that. But again, we think that acting by the end of the year is doable in New York.
Operator:
And our final question comes from Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs.
Michael Lapides:
Two questions for you, actually unrelated. One, some of the potential draft Illinois legislative approaches have pretty decent changes to how Commonwealth Edison's ratemaking process would work. Could you just give an update on what you think put and takes are. What are the thing that are actually the benefit to ComEd's earnings power? What are the things in there that could be a headwind if implemented to ComEd's earnings?
Chris Crane:
Joe, Dominguez, do you want to cover that?
Joe Dominguez:
Yes. There's a lot of different proposals at this point, Michael. I think the common thread in all of them is that we would come out of the formula rate. And so -- as you know, the formula rate historically for the last 10 years, really throughout the entirety of EMA, has produced an ROE that is significantly lower than the national average. And that's resulted in billions of dollars of savings for our customers over that period of time. As we emerge from the formula and we come to a more normalized ROE, there will be an opportunity for expanded earnings at ComEd. At the same time, one of the things we very much liked about the formula is our ability to plan work for years in advance. We don't -- as you well know, we don't do radically different things year-to-year. We kind of continue to invest in poles, wires, smart devices, those sorts of things over the course of years. And the formula had given us some certainty that we were going to be able to continue those investments, and that allowed us to kind of make arrangements with our vendors so that we could maximize efficiencies there, both from a supply standpoint as well as from a labor standpoint. So one of the things I worry about coming out of the formula is that planning process. Are we going to continue to see volatility from rate case to rate case? So some of the ideas that have been proposed are aimed at looking at a longer-term transparent investment direction coming out of the company and being reviewed by the commission. For example, the labor proposals would have us produce reports every four years, showing all the investments that we're going to make. And it would give stakeholders an opportunity to take a look at that. We wouldn't necessarily get an approval from that. But it would give people a good understanding of what we're trying to do, what we're trying to invest in the system as we integrate renewables and build on the resilience of the system. So that would be, I think, helpful, so that we have some clarity in the process about where we're going next. It's clear to me that to continue the level of reliability that we've been able to attain and meet the challenge of these storms, integrate renewables, integrate fleets of electric cars, trucks and buses, we're going to need to continue to invest in the system the way we have been investing in those technologies. The formula gave us a clearer path for doing that. And one of the concerns I have about just returning to traditional ratemaking is we don't have that year-over-year clarity. And you could get the volatility and rate outcomes, and that turns into volatility in terms of your workforce volatility in terms of your suppliers and the loss of efficiency there. So I think those are the puts and takes, at least as I see the legislation right now. And I think as Chris said, the policymakers have been meeting routinely on that. And I think those are the issues they're worried about as well.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. And then one quick follow-up, unrelated, on taxes. You can't necessarily rely on ERCOT or the PUCT to act quickly and make market design changes. Often, they've been very reticent to do so. Is there anything you're thinking about doing, either from a contracting standpoint or something physical at the plant, aka maybe backup generation on site with storage tanks or something like that to forestall potential risk like what just played out happening in the future?
Chris Crane:
Right now, the design of ERCOT does not compensate for reliability, availability. It's a pure energy market only. We would have to take into consideration, as ERCOT and the commission continues to deliberate on what the design could be is what we could afford to invest into those plants for that resiliency. In PJM, it's a very resilient market. We're compensated. And we're penalized if we don't produce. That is not the structure that ERCOT has taken in the past. And so it leaves the generators competing against significant amounts of wind suppressing the prices during the shoulder months, especially. And then you have to look at your return on capital to make the investments for that. So going to a dual fuel, going to a different design basis for temperatures can be an expensive proposition. And if you're not getting rewarded for that and the market doesn't prioritize that, it would be difficult to do.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Okay. I was just thinking, is it materially expensive to add things like fuel oil tanks to some of the gas plants that could store a couple of days for use in emergency only? Is that prohibitively expensive relative, I guess, if I were to compare it to what just happened?
Chris Crane:
No. It is expensive, but it's more complicated than just having oil on site. The plants have designed for temperatures and we’re starting to see those temperatures expand in the variants. And so you have to do more than just put oil tanks on in dual fire, make the modifications on the firing jets, in the turbines -- excuse me, in the generators. And so you would -- it is much more complicated than just a couple of oil tanks to make sure that the resiliency is there. And then you've got to make sure that you're being compensated, like PJM does, for those investments. And we stand up. We made those investments in PJM. And we also know that we'll be penalized if we don't produce in PJM. So if and when ERCOT decides that availability and reliability of the fleet is a priority, which thus far, they have not, we would be able to participate in that market and make whatever modifications make economic sense to weather the storm. Pretty good cliche there.
Chris Crane:
Okay. Thanks, everybody, for joining the call today. I hope you all stay and your families stay safe and healthy. And with that, I'll close out the call.
Operator:
That does conclude today's call. You may now disconnect. Thank you for your participation.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the Exelon Fourth Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference may be recorded. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the conference over to one of our speakers today, Dan Eggers, Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance. Sir, please go ahead.
Dan Eggers:
Thank you, Michelle. Good morning, everyone and thank you for joining our fourth quarter 2020 earnings conference call. Leading the call today are; Chris Crane, Exelon's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Joe Nigro, Exelon's Chief Financial Officer. They're joined by other members of Exelon's senior management team will be available to answer your questions following our prepared remarks. We issued our earnings release and separation announcement release this morning along with the presentation, all of which can be found in the Investor Relations section of Exelon's website. The earnings and separation announcement release and other matters which we discuss during today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ from our forward-looking statements based on factors and assumptions discussed in today's material and comments made during this call. Please refer today's 8-Ks and Exelon's other SEC filings for discussions of risk factors and other factors, including uncertainties surrounding the planned separation that may cause results to differ from management's projections, forecasts and expectations. Today's presentation also includes references to adjusted operating earnings and other non-GAAP measures. Please refer to the information contained in the appendix of our presentation and our earnings release reconciliations between the non-GAAP measures and the nearest equivalent GAAP measures. I'll now turn the call over to Chris Crane, Exelon's CEO.
Chris Crane:
Thanks, Dan and good morning, everybody. We have a lot to talk about this morning. So Joe and I will then try to go through it and allow adequate time for questions. Some of the stuff we have to talk about is bad on the recent events in Texas, to put some light on that, but we have some great other subjects to talk about our strong performance in 2020, the results there and the future path for our business. I'll start with Texas. The experienced unprecedented sustained cold temperatures, as we know impacted the energy system in the state, along with severely impacting the people who live there. As noted in last week's 8-K, we had operational issues with our plants due to the extreme weather. They only periodically were available when the price is hit and/or maintained at the administrative cap of $9,000. Our preliminary estimate is and this is preliminary, of the impact of this event across our portfolio is $750 million to $950 million pre-tax or $560 million to $710 million post-tax. At this point, the range is wide. It includes our best estimate for load obligations, ancillary charges and bad debt, it will take some time to refine this estimate. The data we normally, comes to us is on a lag from ERCOT with recently PUCT actions that data has been further delayed and continued uncertainty around any future actions the PUCT or others may take. We expect it to provide a better update no later than the first quarter earnings call. This loss is unacceptable to us. We are mitigating it through business updates, including first quarterly favorability, mostly one-time cost reductions and deferral of non-essential maintenance, which Joe will cover in further detail. We have today found updates and offsets that are expected to reduce our net impact to $0.20 per share at the midpoint of our loss estimates, which is reflected in our earnings guidance. These mitigating efforts are expected to reduce the cash impact to $200 million. As you know, last week's events have raised many questions about Texas market design and associated risks. And this has not been a new conversation. It's been one that's been around for a while. And we hope that through this that the proper actions can be taken on the design. As a result, we are evaluating all our options with respect to our ERCOT business. Moving on to good news. Our 2020 operational and financial performance was strong. Our utilities maintained excellent operations not only in the face of the pandemic, but an extremely punishing storm year, derecho was hurricanes and one day we had 13 tornadoes in the ComEd service territory. The power of our utility platform paid off for us this year. The mutual assistance across the fleet helped achieve record restoration speeds for both ComEd and PECO. Each utility delivered excellent reliability, top desk outage frequency and top quartile outage duration. This performance was reflected in our Customer Satisfaction scores with all the utilities receiving their best on record scores in first quartile in customer satisfaction. Strong operations led to constructive regulatory results as we saw in the outcome of three rate cases across our jurisdictions in 2020. In December, The Maryland PSC approved BGE's first ever multi-year plan, enabling investment in reliability, we're expecting orders for multi-year plans at both Pepco DC and Pepco Maryland. This is allowing for timely recovery whilst supporting jobs in the economy in DC and Maryland. Turning to Slide 7, nuclear had another very good year, generating 150 terawatt hours of zero-emitting power, avoiding - $78 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide. The capacity factor was 95.4%, second only to last year's performance in fleet history. The nuclear group completed 12 refueling outages in fewer days planned, despite the rigorous pandemic protections. Our relationships with our retail customers continue to remain strong with 79% customer renewal rate, average customer duration of more than six years and power contracts of 21 months on average. Slide 8, the financial results. Excellent operations and robust cost led to our strong financial results as you see on the slide. The pandemic reduced our demand for electricity, particularly at Constellation, which created financial headwinds for us. We've reduced our earnings guidance on the first quarter call based on what we knew at the time, and we kept looking for ways to improve our earnings outlet throughout the year. We delivered on $400 million of savings, $150 million more than announced, which brought us well within our original earning guidance range. And then gains from the Constellation Technology Ventures portfolio brought us above the midpoint of our range guidance. We earned $2.01 on the GAAP basis and $3.22 on a non-GAAP basis. Turning to Slide 10, this morning's announcement is really a very good strategic move for us. With our board, we've completed or concluded the separation of our regulated utilities in the competitive businesses is the best interest of all stakeholders, and are moving forward with that decision. So separation, it establishes two best-in-class standalone companies are high growth, high quality, a 100% regulated utility in America's leading clean energy company, producing the most clean energy paired with the best and largest customer-facing business in the country. It better positions each business within its peer set, and it will support business strategies tailored to the distinct business investment profiles and meeting unique customer needs. The same operational expertise, customer focus and financial discipline that you expect from this management team will continue to underpin the value proposition of each company. On Slide 11, the separation of the spin out of the generation business to our existing Exelon shareholders. The regulatory business, which is being termed the RemainCo shares the traits of a high quality, best-in-class utility, strong above earnings growth rate of 6% to 8%. Diversified rate base across 7 constructive jurisdictions with almost 100% of our rate base growth covered by alternative rate recovery mechanisms. Best-in-class operations and an attractive ESG attributes provide platforms to enable a transition to a clean energy economy without owning the generation. The SpinCo, GenCo it's entitled as SpinCo for this, will be America's clean energy leader will continue to produce electricity that is over 90% carbon free, provide 11% of the clean energy in the country. And with no coal-fired generation and emissions profiles - our emissions profiles are significantly below the 1.5 degrees C targets. Delivering solutions for our large customer-facing platform in the country. And we anticipate having an investment grade rating on that balance sheet. The transition, going to Slide 12, Joe will get in more details around the strategy and the specifics of these two great companies. But let me hit on some of the key transaction considerations. The spin is designed to be a tax-free distribution of the SpinCo shares to the existing shareholders of Exelon. We've worked hard to close by the end of the year, which provides execution benefits around a clean calendar year transition for the split. But regulatory approvals could potentially take longer. We have several required approvals with long lead time items being the NRC, New York Public Service Commission. We have good plans for each of these approvals, and we'll be making the necessary files in the very near-term. We maintain an open dialogue with three credit agencies and anticipate both businesses remaining investment grade under various scenarios. Our preliminary work on this energy gives us confidence that they will be able to at least offset them at both companies. Turning to the dividend, the Board has approved the dividend at $1.53 for 2021, which is holding it flat to last year. RemainCo expects to target a 60% payout in line with best-in-class high growth peers and will grow its dividend consistent with earnings. The SpinCo will focus on the combination of debt pay down to support our credit metrics and return capital to our shareholders and continue to invest in clean energy solutions. Resolution of the Illinois Legislative Session and capacity auction results in June, along with a number of other factors will have a bearing on the allocation of this strategy. From a funding perspective, we estimate that Remain Co will need around $1 billion of new equity capital through 2024 investment horizon. This could change depending on variations of factors that we expect to play out over the course of the year. The EPS bands that Joe will show you for the Remain Co already incorporate the potential future equity needs. I'm now going to turn the call over to Joe to talk more about the two business strategies and the outlook for 2021.
Joe Nigro:
Thank you, Chris and good morning, everyone. I will try to build on Chris's remarks by providing more detail about the two standalone businesses, and then we'll discuss our 2021 guidance. I'll start with RemainCo on Slide 14. Our utilities will continue to be a premium business within the sector and share the characteristics of other high quality utilities. They operate in constructive regulatory jurisdictions, with nearly 100% of rate base growth recovered through alternative recovery mechanisms. We will continue to meet our commitments to our customers through bill affordability and best-in-class operations. We will maintain a keen focus on our ESG initiatives, including clean energy and diversity, equity and inclusion. And we'll continue to pursue a balanced and disciplined financial policy underpinned by a strong balance sheet. All of this will allow us to deliver on industry-leading rate base and earnings growth built on strong returns on equity, growing the RemainCo business model well into the future. If you turn to Slide 15, we show RemainCo's growth outlook. We have a robust investment plan across our utilities to continue to improve reliability and resiliency, enhance the service experience for our customers and prepare for a clean energy future. In 2021, we plan to invest nearly $6.6 billion and a total of $27 billion over the next four years. Since our last capital investment disclosure, we've identified more than $500 million in additional investment needs across our system that will provide further benefits for our customers and communities. We are planning to grow our rate base by 7.6% annually - to $58.8 billion, adding nearly $15 billion to rate base by 2024. Our rate base growth is improved by 30 basis points since last year. And as a reminder, our capital forecast reflects only identified projects that we expect to recover through our normal rate filings and other recovery mechanisms. I will also point out that the largest project in our plan is less than 1% of our capital spend from 2021 to 2024, avoiding concentration risk with any particular project. Our earnings per share outlook remains strong at 6% to 8% growth, compared to last year's update, this growth reflects updates to our rate base forecasts and our assumptions around funding RemainCo's growth would get and the $1 billion equity issuance through 2024 that Chris mentioned. We are confident this growth extends beyond 2024, I would note that 2025 will further benefit from rate case timing as you think about your long-term modeling. We deliver on this strong growth while maintaining a focus on affordability, which is paramount to successful utility. We will continue to manage our costs and support energy efficiency programs to keep bill inflation in check, even as we make these investments that benefit our customers. Now turning to Slide 16, RemainCo is a 100% fully regulated transmission and distribution utility with no generation. It is diversified across 7 regulatory jurisdictions, with no one jurisdiction representing the majority of the rate base. We have worked with stakeholders in our jurisdictions to establish recovery mechanisms that allow us to prudently and efficiently invest in critical infrastructure for the benefit of our customers, while generating an appropriate return on capital. Nearly 100% of our rate base growth will be covered by alternative mechanisms by the end of our planning period. These mechanisms include multi-year plans in Maryland and DC, formula rates for both transmission and distribution, capital and other trackers as well as forward-looking test years. We see the combination of being a fully regulated T&D utility, with geographic diversity and constructive regulatory designs as a clear differentiator among our utility peers. Turning to Slide 17, Chris covered our 2020 operations earlier, but I wanted to highlight our operations over time, which consistently outperform the sector average, bringing tangible benefits to our customers. Moving to Slide 18, environmental, social and governance or ESG values have been at the core of our business since Exelon's founding. We have been committed to doing what is right for all our stakeholders, and that will not change, specifically RemainCo is committed to working within our state's regulators and communities to make investments that help them achieve their environmental and clean energy goals. Continuing to support our diverse employees, customers and communities and create a workforce that reflects our community, and operate responsibly and transparently, maintaining the high standards of corporate governance. ESG will continue to be an integral part of RemainCo's strategy as a standalone company. Moving to SpinCo on Slide 20, SpinCo will be the largest supplier of clean energy and sustainable solutions to its customers. It produces 12%, or one out of every nine megawatt hours of carbon free electricity in the United States. SpinCo is an essential partner to businesses and federal, state and local governments that are setting carbon reduction goals and seeking long term solutions to the climate crisis. SpinCo's clean generation fleet is paired with one of the largest customer-facing platforms with the leading share in the C&I market where we continue to have very high customer renew and retention rates. It is also the best operator of nuclear power plants in the country. As Chris mentioned, we're in ongoing conversations with rating agencies and anticipate that SpinCo will remain investment grade. It will continue to have a disciplined financial policy focused on optimizing cash flows to support the balance sheet, invest in clean energy solutions and return value to shareholders. On Slide 21, you can see how SpinCo's clean generation fleet stacks up against others. SpinCo is and will be the leading clean energy producer in the United States. It does not own coal-fired generation and 90% of its output is emissions free. As a result, SpinCo produces nearly double the clean energy of the next leading provider and more than 8 times to 17 times the clean energy of its IPP peers. It also has the lowest emissions intensity, nearly fivefold less intensive than the next generator, and more than 13 times to 15 times less carbon intensive than the other IPPs. These attributes are a clear advantage for SpinCo as the Biden administration committed to 100% zero-carbon electricity sector by 2035 to address the climate crisis. Turning to Slide 22, each of SpinCo's states have or are looking to set ambitious emission reductions for clean energy goals. SpinCo's generation is essential to helping states meet their goals in an affordable manner. SpinCo provides a significant amount of the clean energy in the states where it operates. In Illinois and Maryland, it provides merely all of the clean electricity in the state. Losing any of these assets would be a significant step backward for each state in meeting its goals, while also creating higher costs for customers and significant economic hardship for host communities. The company will continue to be a leading advocate for clean energy policies aimed at preserving and growing clean energy to combat the climate crisis. SpinCo's clean energy leadership extends beyond the power generation fleet. As you can see on Slide 23, our Constellation business has also been a leader in developing and providing clean energy and sustainability solutions for our customers. The desire of our customers to positively impact the environment is real and the Constellation business leads the charge through new products and strategic investments to help our customers. Not only have these efforts been economically beneficial with solid margins, they've also yielded strong customer retention rates and opened up additional revenue opportunities. One example of this is our core product. Constellation serves as an intermediary between the renewable developer and the customer, filling a niche where multiple off takes are needed for 150 megawatt to 250 megawatt sized projects and customers may have varying demands for term and deal structure. It allows Constellation to provide a customized solution for our customers. Moving to Slide 24, it shows the operational performance of generation over time compared to the industry. Generation remains the best operator of nuclear power plants in the United States, with industry-leading capacity factors of approximately 94% or better and industry-leading refueling outage days at least 10 days better than the industry average every year. Turning to our customer-facing business on Slide 25, Constellations retail business is strong, it is steady, repeatable and with stable margins. Customer retention rates have averaged 77% over the last five years with that average contract terms of 25 months and customer duration of more than six years. Constellation is successful at acquiring new customers with a win rate of 29%. We have the largest C&I customer base and that remains key to our strategy. First C&I customers have higher load factors compared to residential customers and are less exposed to seasonal weather fluctuations. Second CNI customers allow us to achieve scale that cannot be done with residential customers. And finally, although the gross margins may be higher on residential customers, these margins do not account for the cost to acquire these customers, which are higher than C&I. Turning to Slide 26, there are uncertainties that will impact SpinCo's future, such as legislation in Illinois, the next PJM auction and potential federal carbon legislation. Regardless of those outcomes, SpinCo will continue to focus on its strong investment-grade rated balance sheet supported by stable free cash flows, which we see in the different scenarios we are currently considering. Exelon generation has a strong record of cost management, with announced savings of more than $1.1 billion since 2015 and that cost discipline will not change. We will continue to seek fair compensation for the zero-carbon attributes, while maintaining the discipline to retire on economic assets and opportunistically monetize others. We will provide a more detailed capital allocation strategy, including debt reduction, return of capital to shareholders and growth later this year, when we have more clarity on these policy and auction outcomes. That said, we are confident that our disciplined approach will keep SpinCo an investment-grade rated business regardless of those outcomes. Finally, I'll conclude with our 2021 earnings guidance on Slide 28. We are providing 2021 adjusted operating earnings guidance of $2.60 to $3 per share, which incorporates the midpoint of the range for the severe weather impacts offset by the opportunities that Chris discussed. Our disclosures including O&M, CapEx and gross margin reflect the mitigation opportunities we have identified and factored into this guidance. Thank you. And now, I'll turn the call back to Chris for his closing remarks.
Chris Crane:
Thanks, Joe. Turning to Slide 29, I want to discuss our key focus areas for 2021. Obviously, we will be working on preparations to separate the businesses, including the regulatory approvals that we are confident we will obtain. That is the work of relatively a small group of our team members, most of the company will continue to focus on delivering operational excellence across our businesses. The operating - operating the grid reliably and safely, supporting our customers and communities during the pandemic and everyday providing zero-carbon energy will meet or exceed our financial commitments delivering earnings within our guidance range and maintain a strong balance sheet. We'll continue our work to mitigate the impact of ERCOT losses and maximize the earnings and cash flow. At the utilities, we will prudently and effectively deploy $6.6 billion of capital to benefit the customers meet the state's energy policy goals. We will work with our regulators to ensure timely recovery on these investments. We'll continue to advocate for clean energy climate policies, with the new administration Congress and the states to put our country on a path of meeting the carbon reduction goals. In Illinois, stakeholders continue discussion on clean energy legislation. The Governor has called for passing an energy bill this session that protects our nuclear fleet, grows renewable energy and supports customers and job creation. We expect the legislation - legislative process to ramp up in the coming weeks and months. We will continue to work with all interested parties on legislation that will achieve the state's clean energy goals and a power system dependability, while protecting our customers from higher bills, dirtier air in our communities from the loss of the economic engines that our nuclear plants are. To be a partner and an ally to our communities we serve, including following through on our work we have underway on social justice, racial equity and restoring civil discourse. Thank you, and I'll open the call up for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Stephen Byrd with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Stephen Byrd:
Hey, good morning.
Chris Crane:
Good morning, Stephen.
Stephen Byrd:
Thanks for the thorough update on a lot of topics. I wanted to talk about your Constellation Technology Venture investment portfolio I think you laid that out well on Slide 45. You know I've noticed there quite a few of these entities are public entities now, as you know, with fairly significant market caps. It is challenging to determine kind of the aggregate value that you all have generated here often, you know, share counts are not available. And I know you can't disclose that on an individual company basis. But I wondered if you could maybe first just talk at a high level at you know, what is the approximate magnitude of a value of those public entity states that you have? And then over time, could this be a potential offset to the equity needs that you have?
Joe Nigro:
So Stephen, good morning, it's Joe. I can't tell you that you know, are those entities contributed $0.14 to earnings in 2020. We have included an expectation of value in our '21 forecast. You know along those assumptions you - we have assumptions of what the IPO schedules would look like. Obviously, for competitive reasons, I can't say a lot more than that. And as you know, these will move around day-to-day until they get to IPO and also till we get to a point if we consider liquidation. But we have included some value in our '21 forecast.
Stephen Byrd:
Understood, Joe. And is it possible over time, you know, I know you don't want to commit to sell in any particular company. But you know, it looks like the magnitude could be significant compared to the $1 billion of equity you need? Is it a potential offset in the future? Or have you ruled that out? How do you think about kind of the longer-term path here?
Joe Nigro:
Yeah. Those are two very distinct things, when you look at the $1 billion, $1 billion of equity is needed at our RemainCo. And it matches to the growth plans, the capital allocation plan and our target metrics we're shooting for. You know, we'll see where these investments move through time, and we'll make the necessary decisions on what we want to do with liquidation you know, as we see value, but at this point, they're not linked.
Stephen Byrd:
Okay, well understood. And maybe just last one for me, just as you think about ExGen and sort of the leverage levels. I think you've laid this out clearly, but I just wanted to maybe explore a little bit further, how do you think about sort of target ratios you're thinking about there? And then also you did provide a discussion of capital allocation. I just wondered if you could just add a little bit as you think about sort of ranking the different uses of capital at ExGen, if you could just expand on that a little bit?
Joe Nigro:
Yeah, Stephen, we, as you know, we have a long history of investment grade at Exelon Generation. We have had preliminary conversations with the agencies and we've shared data with them, it's been very productive. You know, you've heard both Chris and I say in our prepared remarks, that we have a continued commitment to investment grade with the SpinCo. And the first use of the free cash flow will be to manage the balance sheet and pay down debt. You know, we believe investment grade has value to the business, and also to completing the transaction. And given the strength of the balance sheet, we expected warrants to be investment grade, even when it's fine.
Stephen Byrd:
Very good. Thanks. I'll pass it over to others. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Steve Fleishman:
Hey, good morning.
Joe Nigro:
Hey, Steve.
Chris Crane:
Good morning.
Steve Fleishman:
Thanks. So just a couple of clarifications. Is it fair to say that the financing plan, the equity plan you've laid out incorporates the impacts of the Texas events that occurred and the cash flow that from that there was no change from that?
Joe Nigro:
Yes, it does. Steve it's Joe, good morning. It does.
Steve Fleishman:
And then just one other clarification there. I think, Chris at the end of your comments you said the $1 billion in the plan to 24 could change some depending. Could you just give a little more color on that?
Chris Crane:
Yeah, I would like to give color. But you know, we did link some of this to Texas and it's early on in our actions. We want to make sure that we're giving a picture of what it potentially could be, but we'll be working on it. Joe?
Joe Nigro:
Yeah, I think there, Steve, just examples of things that could change. It would be you know, we talked about $500 million of incremental capital investment at our utilities year-over-year in the four-year horizon, that would obviously have an impact. You know, ComEd currently is under a formula rate the ties to treasuries, treasuries move around, you know, regulatory settlements could change from assumption. So there are factors that will move it, but when we look at our plan as laid out, and we look at the metrics and all, you know, right now we see $1 billion of equity need -
Steve Fleishman:
Okay -
Joe Nigro:
Company at the rates -
Steve Fleishman:
Okay, so it's more just the normal course stuff at any utility.
Joe Nigro:
Normal course business activity -
Steve Fleishman:
Yes. Yeah, yeah. Okay. And then the, just on the dividend. If you take that payout, times the utility guidance, you're - you have a slightly lower dividend than the current one, but it doesn't take much dividend from ExGen to kind of make it even. So just, I don't know how important that is in the scheme of your decision-making. But just maybe any comment on that?
Chris Crane:
You know, it's really early on that one as we go through the planning process, understand what we'll be prioritizing at the GenCo for debt reduction or alternate investments we'll have to see on that and to talk about the RemainCo is definitely early in the planning process, we have to look at all sources and uses of cash. And do that throughout the year before we give a suggestion to the Board on the long-term.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. And then my last question is just maybe for Chris, a high level between the Biden administration, there's on the nuclear future between what happened in Texas, the Biden administration coming in, the comments of the Governor of Illinois like - so far, just how are you overall feeling about the ability to get some credit for nuclear to stay open, then maybe six months ago?
Chris Crane:
You know, we - we've had a cloud in Illinois, and that has slowed the process of the discussion as some look at ComEd and the nuclear plants being one, and working to separate that, but also explaining not only the environmental benefits, but the community and the economic benefits that they serve along with the reliability. You know, in all of our jurisdictions that we have nuclear plants, I think that recognition is strong or becoming stronger. The preliminary conversations that Kathleen and her team are having with the administration and the Congress are positive. You know, it's, to say that that you can see a carbon tax in the future, the eminent future, still a lot of ground to plow there, but continuing to work on some other mechanisms that her team has been engaged with on the legislative side and briefing on the administrative side, I do feel from a year ago to now we're making progress.
Steve Fleishman:
Great, thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey, good morning, team. Thanks for the time. Perhaps just wanted to follow-up here on the confidence in executing this transaction. Clearly, New York prior approvals with Entergy in previous attempts, obviously drove some challenges in the past. I'll leave it open ended. I'm curious, what are the preliminary conversations in New York and NRC looking like? I've recognized that you're directly addressing some of those early concerns with investment grade balance sheet here. But if you can speak to it more broadly, I would appreciate whatever context you can provide. Certainly seems - if I can read between the lines that you're already talking about providing a capital allocation update here. So certainly seems like that's a positive indication.
Bill Von Hoene:
Julien, this is Bill and thank you for the question. We have had conversations with New York and we intend to file our approval request immediately after the announcement. This is a very, very different situation from the Entergy situation where they went in with a spin off that would be non-investment grade. We have given New York a good idea and a good understanding of how we think the financial stability of the SpinCo would be, and it's a very, very different situation. We've also had a long and relatively strong relationship with New York since this expert passed. So we are confident that we will get through New York, it's going to be a process, obviously, and there'll be some negotiations. But the initial signs are good. And while there is no timeline on New York, as you know, we would expect to be able to complete this in New York within a year. And we think that conversations are productive and continue - excuse me, to be that way.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Excellent. Just a couple of clarifications. EDF put that's reflected, I presume in this outlook and approval process, and then separately, the minimum FFO to debt targets that you're talking about here. Can you elaborate at all? I know it's early on both sides of the equation.
Joe Nigro:
The answer to your first question is, we've made an assumption of EDF put in this analysis. The second one we have had preliminary conversations with the agencies. It's you know, it's too soon for us to begin commenting on what targets and metrics you know would look like but we are confident that both entities will be strong investment grade rating companies.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. Okay, fair enough. Best of luck.
Chris Crane:
Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Shah Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Shah Pourreza:
Hey, good morning, guys.
Chris Crane:
Hey, Shah.
Shah Pourreza:
So just focusing on the credit side. Do you sort of expect there to be sort of any parental guarantees between the RemainCo and the SpinCo upon separation? And curious, how do you sort of get the agencies comfortable with the business risk profile, despite sort of having IG metrics? I mean, this has been a little bit of an uphill climb with some of your IPP peers?
Joe Nigro:
Yeah, so I think, Shah to the question of parental guarantees that we don't expect any parental guarantees being held at RemainCo for the benefit of SpinCo. I think, to your agency question. You know, there's a number of ways to think about that, right. We continue to look at ways to shore up the cash flows in the business, you looked at the, you know, the ZEC payments, capacity payments, the strength of our Constellation business, the strength of our Nuclear operations were strong investment grade rating. Now, I think, you know, we continually honor that commitment. We think there's value in it, our value return policy and our capital allocation at SpinCo. First and foremost, we'll start with debt reduction with the use of free cash flow. So I think all of those things go into the dialogue with the agencies to ensure that, you know, we continue as an investment grade entity.
Shah Pourreza:
Got it. And then, so I know you obviously, the key is that you're mitigating or offsetting some of the dissynergies or all of dissynergies from the transaction that's announced today. Can you just maybe elaborate how you expect to mitigate dissynergies? And how do we sort of thinking about the $7.4 billion the HoldCo debt that's going to be allocated between the two?
Joe Nigro:
So the debt will remain, the HoldCo debt will remain with the parent with RemainCo. When you talk about dissynergies, there are opportunities to reduce costs when you look at governance models, you look at, you know, the use of technology and some of the other external things we spend money on. We're going to challenge ourselves like we do each year to determine how we can continue reduce that, but we are confident when you go through those buckets that we can offset any dissynergies.
Shah Pourreza:
Okay, perfect. And then just lastly, I know, Chris, you highlighted sort of, you know, reevaluating the ERCOT fleet like Colorado Bend and Wolf Hollow? Do you sort of expect a transaction or strategy there prior to the Spin or so how do we sort of think about the Texas fleet in light of the ExGen spec?
Chris Crane:
Yeah, the first step is working with the other stakeholders on what happens and what's the future design of the Texas market? Do they lean towards a reliability standard that takes into consideration capacity tested for, which has not been the view of the market design in Texas, there's been a lot written on this over the years that we're heading in this direction is a very unfortunate event? But we have to know first a market design. The second thing is we have to look at the design and the root cause on our specific units. And the issues that we had anywhere from metallurgical issues to pressure issues to instrument issues. We had taken some action after the Super Bowl event a couple of years ago. But you don't get compensated to do what we've done in other jurisdictions with hardening the plants that have not only energies but capacity payments that allow you to make those investments. So you know, we have to look at it, we want to be a reliable provider. We want to participate in a market that's designed to not only protect the consumers, the cost element, the reliability element, but allow us to make the investments and operate our plants safely and reliably.
Shah Pourreza:
Terrific. Thank you, guys. Congrats today.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Durgesh Chopra with Evercore ISI. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Durgesh Chopra:
Hey, good morning team. Thanks for taking my question. Joe, just - good morning. Just quick, I want to be clear on dividends, just in terms of when we're thinking about pro forma dividend to shareholders. Are we - should we be modeling them lower? Or are you suggesting that there could be a dividend at the SpinCo? Just -
Joe Nigro:
What we -
Durgesh Chopra:
Let me -
Joe Nigro:
Right, sorry.
Durgesh Chopra:
No, that's it.
Joe Nigro:
Okay. Yeah, what we've said is, you know, we've aligned the utility payout at 60% of EBS - EPS it'll grow in line with our earnings growth. And, you know, we believe that compares to other high growth and high quality utilities. We haven't made a determination on the capital allocation plan at SpinCo for some of the reasons that we've talked about in our prepared remarks. And you know, the first and foremost, we're going to continue to pay down debt there to maintain the strength of the balance sheet, because we think that an investment grade rating is important. And then beyond that we'll determine how we return capital to the shareholders. And we expect to have, you know, those decisions made through time here, we're just not ready to commit to that at this point, given some of the uncertainty.
Durgesh Chopra:
Understood, okay. Okay. So guys from GenCo basically goes to pay down debt, and then the balance, you may administrate dividend or sort of buy back shares or do other, you know, other ways of giving it back to shareholders?
Joe Nigro:
I wouldn't say it that black and white, I would say we have to make a determination on what our capital allocation policy is. And we'll do that through time as some of these other things are resolved. But there's been no final determination.
Durgesh Chopra:
Understood. Okay. Thanks. And then just maybe can I quickly get your thoughts on you mentioned the federal carbon legislation? So what sort of are you expecting there and perhaps in the timeline?
Chris Crane:
Yeah, I'll let Kathleen to pile on them.
Kathleen Barron:
Yeah, thanks for the question. I mean, you know, obviously, we were heartened to see the administration set the carbon free power sector goal by 2035. And we know that there are number of steps that are to come, including, as you mentioned, potential for climate legislation. But you know, I would keep my eye on the administration needs to set an NDC for the US a Nationally Determined Contribution to match up to the new commitment to the Paris target, we do expect that to be more aggressive than in the past. And that we'll sort of set the tone for what Congress takes up. But I think the nearest term thing to look to is the push for an infrastructure package. There are a number of business and labor and other interests pushing the administration to move forward on a piece of legislation that itself could make progress on climate. So separate from a pure climate Bill, and infrastructure bill, that included tax incentives for clean energy development, electric vehicle storage, climate resilient infrastructure, is sort of the first thing to look out for. And then I think once that gets done, you know, we'll see the discussions wrap up around what the future sort of National Climate Policy is going to look like, as you know, the administration has already expressed support for a national clean energy standard, that counts nuclear as clean. And so that, that clearly will be on the table, but there will also be discussions about a carbon tax dividend approach and with, you know, the growing public support for national action, you know, we, as Chris said, are working with folks in Washington to make sure that, you know, the proper design is included in the sense that we need something that is going to be cognizant of the customer impact, but also aggressive enough to address the challenge of the climate crisis. The last thing I'd say, I guess, is that while those are all extremely positive developments, they do take time, legislation in Washington will take some time to enact and then it will take time to implement. So that's why our focus does remain at the state level on moving forward with legislation that will support the state's climate goals, air pollution reduction, electrification of the economy and job creation and equity, so that we can make progress now, while the federal discussions continue.
Durgesh Chopra:
Understood, thanks for the color. Thanks for time, guys. Appreciate it.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Michael Lapides:
Hey, guys. Thank you for taking my question. And congrats on today's announcement. Lots of interesting stuff going on. Real quick, just curious how you're thinking about really the broader risk to run the retail business, not just Texas, but anywhere you do it, and then how we should think about the potential for power price volatility, especially given a significant amount of retired baseload generation over the last 5 to 10 years, how that can impact you in other regions, where you're much bigger than you are in Texas and retail. Trying to think about, you know, it's not the first time we've had price spikes, we had them in January of 2014 and January 2018 in New England, there have been other retailers. Just curious about how you protect yourself from the risk of a, Texas like events happening in one of your bigger markets.
Chris Crane:
The one thing is, you have to differentiate between the market designs. Texas is far different than PJM. The interconnectability and availability of power through that Eastern interconnect is strong. We have taken on steps in other markets to ensure that we have adequate capacity that can weather such events, weather events. But you know, you take in an isolated market, where you do not have the ability to import, cover your load. You have a price cap at significantly high, and you essentially lose your sites. It is not something you can hedge for at this time in ERCOT. And that's what we have to work on. But our hedging strategy and our ability to have our customer-facing products in our retail C&I and Residential business, as many risk focuses on that, and we continue to work as the markets evolve. So we're not looking at it like this is an event everywhere across the country, as long as we keep focusing on sound market designs, understanding capacity requirements and the investments required by the generators to prevent such volatility. But our hedging strategy is the key to that.
Michael Lapides:
Got it, okay. And then a follow-up on SpinCo. How should we think about, I mean, you've got an RPM auction coming up this May? How should we think about, you know, potential changes in RPM outcomes relative to the, you know, to the last auction which was almost two years ago. And what it means for the financial structure, the capital structure for kind of ExGen as a new entity separate from consolidated Exelon?
Chris Crane:
So that's a pretty broad question and there's a bunch of questions in there. I think, I'll let Joe start with it and then see where we go for the rest of it with Kathleen and -
Joe Nigro:
Michael, the one thing I would say is, and we made this comment in our prepared remarks, we looked at the SpinCo business under a range of different scenarios. And those scenarios ultimately take into account, you know, changes in cash flow assumptions, and how we would manage the business accordingly. I think you've seen us through time, you know, we would be very prudent, financially with a lot of discipline, right, we've used alternative tools like project financing, we've retired assets when they were on economic and we couldn't get paid for them. We've sold assets that the market has put a higher premium on than ours. But we don't look at just one point estimate or we have to make sure we understand how shocks would impact our, you know, the balance sheet and the free cash flow of the company. And we continue to look at that and you know, your example of capacity outcomes would tie into that.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Thank you, guys. Much appreciated.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Jonathan Arnold with Vertical Research. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Jonathan Arnold:
Hey, good morning, guys. And thank you for taking my question.
Chris Crane:
Hi, Jonathan.
Jonathan Arnold:
Hi. I want to just clarify one thing on the corporate segment drag that you have say in your '21 guidance. It looks as though that is mostly allocated to RemainCo just as we think about transitioning forward, is that correct? Or is a piece of that sort of not coming - will a piece of that go away with the Spin?
Joe Nigro:
Yeah, that is, you are correct. It's mostly allocated to RemainCo.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. So that was one thing. And then just as I look at the RemainCo's earnings trajectory I mean obviously you're reiterating the 6% to 8%. But a good bit of that seems to be the step up in '21 from 2020, so, then it's kind of flatter further out, and obviously have the equity in there. But that doesn't look like that's huge. So just curious what's kind of tempering that flow further out when you actually raised the CapEx, et cetera?
Joe Nigro:
Yeah, so Jonathan 6% to 8% is a long-term target for us. As you could imagine, you know, given the size and scale of our business, there's going to be some oscillation in a given period of time. When you think about rate case timing and then would be one that changes it. So if you were to carry this through to '25, you would see strong growth, just given some of the timing of our rate cases. I would also say, you know, the work we're doing at the utilities under Calvin Butler's leadership is to make sure that we're reducing lag, right, we're investing for the benefit of our consumers and improving reliability and the customer experience. But we're also trying to make sure that we reduce the regulatory lag. And we've seen that with things like the multi-year rate plan in Maryland and DC, for example, but there are going to be some years where it moves around just given timing of rate cases and other things.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay, good enough. And just maybe one other thing on timing. You've obviously talked about these offsets to the Texas hit. Well how should we think about those in terms of how they show up through the year? And is the Q1 going to be - take obviously, the negative thing Q1, but does it sort of take most of the year to get back to that negative 20 net. Or would it become quicker than that?
Joe Nigro:
Yeah, no, though, it will take time to flush through the year. And, you know, we're looking at these in a number of buckets, we have the ability to defer non-essential maintenance. There are some one-time cost savings, which will monetize throughout the year. And then there are some revenue enhancement opportunities, which also will happen throughout the year. But there's a number of different levers that we're using.
Chris Crane:
There's a very focused team that's overseeing this, working with individual businesses on making sure that they can commit to what we believe that these goals are, that come up with this savings range, and will continue to challenge from the corporate financial organization, other areas on where we can affect some dampening of the effects of ERCOT.
Jonathan Arnold:
Right, thank you, Chris.
Operator:
Thank you. And this does conclude today's question-and-answer session. And I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Chris Crane for any further remarks.
Chris Crane:
I'd just like to thank everybody for joining today. You know we had a lot to go through today. As we were planning for this with the Board, we did not anticipate the ERCOT event to the extent that it played through, creates a little bit of complication. But it's nothing that the team is not up to try to work through the challenges. So we'll continue to update you on the calls or if something happens. In the meantime, when we think is worthy, Dan and his team, Emily will be reaching out to folks just to make sure we're in sync and you know where we're going. So with that, be safe and thank you.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This does conclude the program and you may all disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.
Operator:
Hello, and welcome to Exelon’s third quarter earnings Call. My name is Gigi, and I will be your event specialist today. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. Please note that today’s webcast is being recorded. During the presentation, we will have a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please note that today’s webcast is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] It is now my pleasure to turn today’s program over to Dan Eggers, Senior Vice President of Corporate Finance. The floor is yours.
Daniel Eggers:
Thank you, Gigi. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our third quarter 2020 earnings conference call. Leading the call today are Chris Crane, Exelon’s President and Chief Executive Officer; and Joe Nigro, Exelon’s Chief Financial Officer. They are joined by other members of Exelon’s senior management team, who will be available to answer your questions following our prepared remarks. We issued our earnings release this morning along with the presentation, both of which can be found in the Investor Relations section of Exelon’s website. The earnings release and other matters, which we discuss during today’s call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ from our forward-looking statements based on factors and assumptions discussed in today’s material and comments made during this call. Please refer to today’s 8-K and Exelon’s other SEC filings for discussions of risk factors and other factors, including uncertainties surrounding the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic that may cause results to differ from management’s projections, forecasts and expectations. Today’s presentation also includes references to adjusted operating earnings and other non-GAAP measures. Please refer to the information contained in the appendix of our presentation and our earnings release for reconciliations between the non-GAAP measures and the nearest equivalent GAAP measures. I will now turn the call over to Chris Crane, Exelon’s CEO.
Christopher Crane:
Thanks, Dan. Appreciate it. And as you can see from our release, we have had strong earnings and operational performance, while continuing to focus on the health and safety of our employees and the communities. Our GAAP basis earned $0.51 per share and non-GAAP basis earned $1.04 per share. We did outperform our guidance that we had originally given at $0.80 to $0.90 per share due to some favorable weather and more cost savings coming through sooner than we anticipated Joe is going to get into the detail [indiscernible] that I want to highlight. In August, we had a tropical storm that battered the East Coast with rain and strong winds, significant impacts to ACE, Delmarva and PECO. It was PECO’s 10th largest storm on record following the 8th largest storm in June. Then a hurricane-like derecho tore through the ComEd service territory, spawning 13 tornadoes. Between the two storms, we had more than 1.5 customers lost power. We had more than 500 employees and contractors that were helping their sister utilities moving back and forth between the East and the West to try to respond to the needs of the customers. And despite the intensity, we were able to restore the power to our customers in record time due to the power of our Exelon Utilities platform. Our employees’ quick response and collaboration made the difference for our customers. So we really want to thank our employees for their great work restoring service to customers during, not just the pandemic, but a very active storm season as we have seen. As I mentioned on the last call, Exelon is committed to our values of diversity, equality and inclusion. Part of this commitment calls on our businesses and our partners to recognize these values and include women and people of color in key roles on our accounts. For 10-years, we have recognized partners who have excelled in this area. This year, we have included 30 companies in banking, insurance, legal, investment, professional and IT services to our 2020 diversity and inclusion honor roll. We also are committed to delivering clean energy in a clean-energy future. Exelon Foundation and Exelon selected 10 start-ups as part of the first round of $20 million in climate change investment initiatives. Beyond the financial support, Exelon will mentor the start-ups on accessing capital, structuring the business, capital allocation and meeting the regulatory requirements. Through this program, the Foundation will invest early in stage start-ups, working on climate change, mitigating, adapting and resilience in our service territory. 50% are minority or women owned, 60% of the projects focus on greenhouse gas mitigation and the others are on resiliency and adapting to the changing climate environment that we are living in. These investments will bring us a step closer to a clean-energy future by helping entrepreneurs translate their ideas for reversing climate change into practical solutions. Finally, we made the difficult decision to retire some uneconomic generation stations. Mystic generation, gas-fired station in Boston will retire in 2024 when the cost service agreement expires. And very disappointingly, we announced our Dresden - Byron and Dresden nuclear stations will retire in 2021. These plants produce 30% of the carbon-free electricity in Illinois. They provide over 1,500 good-paying full-time jobs, and they support 2,000 supplemental workers during refueling outages, most from local union halls, paying $63 million in taxes annually to support local schools, fire departments and other services in their community. Despite being among the most efficient, reliable units in the U.S. nuclear fleet, they face revenue shortfalls, declining energy prices, lack of capacity revenue and market rules that allow fossil plants to underbid clean energy resources in the PJM market auction. Given these losses, we have made a tough decision to shut these units down and give our employees and the host communities time to manage through the personal and economic challenges ahead. Without these plants and others at risk, customers will pay $483 million in increased annual energy cost under the PJM auction structure that is about to incur. The electric sector emissions will increase by 70% and instead of growing zero carbon energy in Illinois to reach the state’s goal of clean energy will fail - fall decades behind. We continue to work with interested parties on the best way to achieve these state goals, but urgent action is needed. We have to protect our consumers from higher bills, our state from dirtier air and our communities from the loss of these irreplaceable power plants and the jobs that they create. Turning to operations, even with the pandemic conditions, extreme storms and record heat across our territories, all our utilities have achieved first quartile operating performance in outage duration and frequency. Customer service remains at top quartile across all utilities with BGE, ComEd and PECO delivering service in top decile. Power dispatch match of 98.9% in renewable energy capture at 91.9%. The Constellation has also had a very strong quarter of execution, and as a result was able to increase the new business targets for the year that we talked about at trouble in the first quarter. The nuclear performance was excellent. The plants ran at 96% for the quarter. They led the nation in zero carbon electricity production, producing almost 38 terawatt hours of emission-free generation. Like all of our plants, Dresden and Byron ran at nearly full power through the hottest summer on record. Employees at Dresden and Byron are entirely focused on ensuring the reliability and safety of these plants through their retirement dates. The plants’ forced retirement is simply hard to deal with, and it is a shame. I will now turn the call over to Joe for a financial update.
Joseph Nigro:
Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone. Today, I will cover our third quarter results, quarterly financial updates and our hedge disclosures. I will also provide an update on our full year 2020 guidance. Turning to Slide 7. We earned $0.51 per share on a GAAP basis and $1.04 per share on a non-GAAP basis, which exceeded our guidance range of $0.80 to $0.90 per share. A key driver in our quarterly EPS performance for both the second and third quarters has been success in managing costs. As you may recall, on our first quarter call, we announced $250 million of savings across the organization to help offset the impacts of COVID. At that time, we expected our offices would reopen in late summer. Since then, we have pushed phase 1 of our reopening for remote-enabled workers until January of next year at the earliest. This change in expectations, along with the hard work of the organization, led to higher savings than originally anticipated. For the quarter, Exelon Utilities delivered a combined $0.57 per share net of holding company expenses. Utility earnings were modestly higher relative to expectations, driven primarily by favorable O&M and taxes, earlier recognition of bad debt regulatory assets and favorable summer weather in our non-decoupled jurisdictions. This was partially offset by costs related to tropical storm Isis, which hit the East Coast in August. ExGen outperformed expectations for the third quarter, earning $0.47 per share. The upside was largely driven by lower O&M, where targeted savings exceeded our original expectations and were achieved sooner than planned. Additionally, favorable weather and lower cost to serve benefited our gross margin. On Slide 8, we show our quarter-over-quarter earnings walk. The $1.04 per share in the third quarter of this year was $0.12 per share higher than the third quarter of 2019. Exelon Utilities less Holdco earnings were up $0.01 per share compared to last year. The earnings growth was driven primarily by higher distribution and transmission rates associated with completed rate cases relative to the third quarter of 2019 as well as favorable weather at PECO. This was partially offset by storm costs at PHI and PECO. ExGen’s earnings were up $0.11 per share compared with last year, benefiting from lower O&M and higher capacity revenues. Turning to Slide 9. We are raising our 2020 EPS guidance range to $3 to $3.20 per share from $2.80 to $3.10 per share and are now comfortably within our original 2020 guidance range of $3 to $3.30 per share. When we revised guidance on the first quarter call, there was a great deal of uncertainty about the severity and the length of the impacts of COVID on our business. Our updated guidance considers the strong ExGen performance to date, our successful cost management as well as the favorable weather we saw in the third quarter. We are delivering on our financial commitments, and we are confident we will be within our revised guidance range at year-end. Moving to Slide 10. Looking at our Utility returns on a consolidated basis, we have dipped slightly below our consolidated 9% to 10% target range with an 8.9% trailing 12-month ROE as of the third quarter. The 20 basis point decline from last quarter was primarily due to equity infusions at BGE and ComEd to support capital investments. This calculation is backward-looking, so you should continue to see some pressure on ROEs over the next couple of quarters. This is simply due to the roll-off of better pre-COVID-19 quarters, the burden of poor first quarter weather, summer storms and the continued impact of lower treasuries on ComEd. Looking further into the future, we remain focused on delivering stronger returns at the utilities and supporting our growth targets. Turning to Slide 11. Since the last call, we had two major developments on the regulatory front. Pepco filed its first multiyear plan in Maryland, and PECO filed its first guest distribution case in 10-years. Pepco was the second utility in Maryland to file a multiyear plan with BGE filing the first plan in May. The filing will support capital investments in the electric distribution system made during 2019 and 2020 and planned investments through March of 2024. Pepco’s planned investments will continue to improve reliability and customer service, advanced technologies and investments to modernize the distribution system, support state environmental goals and provide tools to assist customers in managing their energy use. The filing considers the current health emergency and economic challenges in Maryland, while allowing for timely recovery of our investments that benefit our customers. A few highlights from the filing include flat distribution rates for the first two years of the plan, partially offset in year three. Residential electric bills are projected to be lower in 2024 than they were in 2011. Recovery of electric vehicle program cost and COVID-19 costs and inclusion of tracking performance incentive mechanisms focused on system reliability, customer service and the environment. We expect an order in May of 2021. On September 30th, PECO filed a gas distribution case with the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission. PECO is seeking a revenue increase of $69 million for continued investments in its gas distribution system to maintain and increase safety, reliability and customer service. We expect an order in June of 2021. We also have several rate cases still in progress, two of which we expect orders on this year. In October, evidentiary hearings were conducted as part of BGE’s pending multiyear rate case. As a reminder, the filing supports planned capital investments from 2020 to 2023 as well as investments made in late 2019 to maintain and increased reliability and benefit customer service for our electric and gas distribution systems. We expect an order in December. Additionally, ComEd’s annual formula rate update filing is expected to be decided in December of this year. On October 14th, draft proposed orders were filed by ComEd, the ICC staff and intervenors as part of the case. This filing requests a reduction in delivery rates for the third year in a row and the fifth decrease in 10-years. Since the formula rate has been in place, ComEd’s investments in grid modernization and enabling clean energy growth have improved reliability by 70% while keeping bills lower than they were nearly a decade ago. More details on the rate cases can be found on Slides 20 through 27 of the appendix. Turning to Slide 12. The Utilities continue to deploy capital largely as planned for the year, investing $1.6 billion during the third quarter and year-to-date, we have spent $4.5 billion of capital at our utilities, improving our infrastructure and increasing reliability and resiliency for the benefit of our customers. Despite some early challenges from the pandemic, our capital plan is on track for the year. Today, I will talk about two projects that advance Exelon utility strategy. A key element of that strategy is involving our capabilities to anticipate and meet changing customer needs and expectations of the system. The first project is Pepco’s streetlight modernization project in Maryland. This project includes conversion of approximately 66,000 existing streetlights to smart LEDs and integration with a central management system. The new streetlights will send automatic notifications to the central management system, improving outage response time, maintenance efficiency and customer billing accuracy. Additionally, LEDs improve light quality and benefit public safety and security. This project is included in the Pepco Maryland multiyear plan filing I discussed earlier. The second project is the Exelon Utilities’ customer information system upgrade, which was completed on time even though it was done almost fully remotely. This is a $130 million project to upgrade BGE’s customer care and billing system and implement Oracle’s customer experience service cloud at BGE, ComEd and PECO. This new system will provide operational efficiencies as well as improve customer satisfaction. It is simply one piece of an ongoing project across the utilities to transform the customer information system. These improvements will support a platform to enable future customer benefits. Improvements will include a more personalized customer experience allowing for more efficient issue resolution and a streamlined and simplified implementation of billing for new customer offerings, such as community solar where energy is produced at different locations than the customers’ residents. Additionally, it will allow for faster implementation of new rate structures, bringing pricing for new services such as EV charging and storage pricing to market faster. Transitioning to Slide 13, we provide our gross margin update and current hedging position at ExGen. Our disclosures now reflect the impacts of the planned retirements of the Byron and Dresden nuclear plants in September and November of 2021, respectively. For 2020, total gross margin is up $50 million. Open gross margin decreased $100 million, primarily due to lower spark spreads in ERCOT, partially offset by higher prices at NiHub and West Hub. Our mark-to-market of hedges were up $250 million due to our hedge position, which offset the decrease in open gross margin including the execution of $150 million of Power New Business. We also executed $50 million in non-Power New Business during the quarter. Based on the higher load volumes associated with favorable third quarter weather and lower cost to serve across the portfolio, we are raising our 2020 new business targets by $50 million. For 2021, total gross margin is down $150 million driven by the retirements of Byron and Dresden nuclear plants, which is flowing through the open gross margin line. However, open gross margin is flat due to higher prices at West Hub, NiHub and New York Zone A. Mark-to-market of hedges was down $100 million due to our hedge position being down $150 million, offset by the execution of $50 million of Power New Business inside the quarter. As a reminder, the Byron and Dresden retirements are expected to be earnings and cash flow accretive. However, they are essentially flat in 2021 due to the timing of the retirements. The $150 million decrease in gross margin is offset by lower O&M, TOTI and depreciation and amortization totaling $150 million. Additionally, we remained slightly behind our ratable hedging program in 2021 by 2% to 5% when considering cross-commodity hedges. Our hedge percentages reflect the removal of Byron and Dresden in the fall of 2021. Moving on to Slide 14. Our consolidated FFO to debt is projected to be 18% for 2020, consistent with last quarter. Looking at ExGen, we are ahead of our debt-to-EBITDA target of 3.0x. For 2020, we expect it to be at 2.3x debt-to-EBITDA and 1.9x when excluding nonrecourse debt. On the ratings front, Moody affirmed its existing ratings for Exelon Corporation and ComEd in the third quarter. We remain committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet and investment-grade credit ratings. Thank you. And I will now turn the call back to Chris for his closing remarks.
Christopher Crane:
Thanks, Joe. Finally, turning to Slide 15. I want to close as we do each one of these calls, with our value proposition. We are focused on growing our utilities, and now we are targeting a 7.3% rate base growth with a 6% to 8% EPS growth through 2023. We will use the free cash flow from the Genco to support the utility growth, pay down Genco debt and support the external dividend. We continue to optimize the value of Exelon Generation business by seeking fair compensation for our 0-emitting generation. And I have to say that many editorials and others call what we are asking for as a bailout. It is not a bailout. The nuclear fleet is only zero emitting fleet that does not get compensation towards value. So this is not a bailout. It is leveling the playing field. It comes across nice and political venues or editorial venues, but the last thing it is, is a bailout, it is leveling the competitive field. We will continue closing uneconomic plants, like we announced the retirement of Dresden, Byron and Mystic, monetizing these assets and maximizing the value through Constellation, retail and wholesale. We will continue to sustain investment-grade credit metrics and maintain a strong balance sheet and have grown our dividend annually at 5% through 2020. Before turning to Q&A, I want to comment on some recent news reports that Exelon is considering separating the Exelon Generation from the Utilities. As discussed recently on our last earnings call, we regularly evaluate whether our corporate structure best serves the interest of our communities, customers and our employees and also our investors. We would consider modifying that structure when we can create value and recognize those interests. The nature of our business and the landscape that it is in has been evolving over the years. In addition, you have seen a number of competitive integrated companies in our sector that have shrunk considerably. Given those circumstances, a review of our corporate structure is underway, started earlier this year, and we have the help of outside advisers. As we continue this review, we focus on creating value, taking into account, as I have mentioned, all of our stakeholders
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Stephen Byrd from Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.
Stephen Byrd:
Hi, good morning. I just wanted to first talk about the strategic review. And I respect that you are at, I guess, a fairly early stage of thinking through your options. But I was just trying to think about the strategy here, and I guess maybe I wanted to start with what sort of attributes or sort of risk profile would you want to achieve for your merchant fleet for ExGen to be consistent with your strategy versus sort of what risk profile would be not consistent with your strategy? I know overall, you are trying to derisk the business and provide greater stability. How do you, at a high level, think about that?
Christopher Crane:
Yes. I would wouldn’t say we are at the early stages. I would say that we are in an in-depth review of the evaluation. And some of the things we look at are the cost of capital, things like that, the degradation of the Constellation business with collateral costs. There is many aspects to it that are under review right now. But what we want to make sure is that we have two healthy companies, a utility business - if we and the Board determine this is the right thing to do, two healthy businesses that can stand on their own and provide the support needed for the balance sheets, the customers, the employees, the shareholders as we go forward. So a lot to be taken in there. But I don’t think we have pinpointed a risk profile yet that - well, I can say we haven’t pinpointed a risk profile yet that I have agreed with and the Board has agreed with.
Stephen Byrd:
Understood. Is it fair to say it is an objective to try to reduce the volatility and also just to improve the viability, I guess, of that business going forward, right? That seems clear that, that is part of the strategy here?
Christopher Crane:
Yes. It is a free cash flow machine. And how do we optimize that to be the best that it can and produce the most on valuation side and shareholder return side. So that is kind of the focus.
Stephen Byrd:
Yes, that makes sense. And maybe just one last one for me. More on the tactical side, thinking about your nuclear plants. You have obviously made some shutdown decisions already. But I guess we calculate that some of your remaining nuclear plants are currently or will be negative cash flow. Would you agree with that assessment? And I guess, over what time frame are you thinking about making decisions for some of the plants that look like they are negative cash flow?
Christopher Crane:
You have looked at our disclosures. We have outlined the plants that are sliding into that space. A lot depends on what we do with the capacity market or the FRR and how we treat the plants is comparable with other zero carbon-emitting plants, which they are not being treated equally right now. So the time frame, we have to watch the auction, we have to watch the legislation. If we don’t get a capacity redesign and the auctions run, you could anticipate there would be some issues coming up in the future.
Stephen Byrd:
Understood. Thanks so much, I appreciate it.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Steve Fleishman from Wolfe Research. Your line is now open.
Steven Fleishman:
Great. So I guess, first, arguably, for the last year or so, you have been getting little value, if even maybe negative value for ExGen in the Exelon stock price. So the value case seems obvious, but obviously, there is probably risks and obstacles to just get through. Could you maybe just talk to what some of those are in making this decision?
Christopher Crane:
Yes. I mean you can imagine, this is a complex combination of a competitive integrated. And I wouldn’t get on the path of laying out each one of those, but I will tell you that when you start to look at the corporate center, splitting out the IP, splitting out the financials, splitting out the corporate organization, has a lot of design that we have to make sure we are not creating these in-synergies dissynergies, and we do that properly. There is other considerations that we have to make for the employees, for the regulatory bodies to do that and it is not an easy one. Many of the competitive integrateds that have switched and split have not had the complex level of the integration or the size of the scale that we have. We have the most premier retail and wholesale trading organization, nobody that has split had anything like that. So there is value being created, but there is expense there too. So we have to watch how we do it, make sure we do it properly. There is a lot to be said about what we do for the consumer and the zero carbon market. You haven’t seen anybody that has a zero carbon fleet like ours split-off. You have seen coal plants, you have seen gas plants, you have seen gas infrastructure split-off. We have to make sure that when or if we do it, that we have the right compensation for the assets that are being spun-off. And that is not something that is been recognized by the regulators or the legislators or the administrations thus far. They recognize when they recognize solar, but they have not recognized nuclear. And if you look at just the state of Illinois right now, 60% of the generation is carbon-free. 90% of it is nuclear. Nuclear is the only one that is not compensated for its low carbon or zero carbon elements. So there is a lot of different avenues we have to go down to, to get this right. But as I said in the last call, the market’s changing, and we have to figure out how we change with it.
Steven Fleishman:
Great. Just based on the comments you just made, Chris, is it fair to say that you need to get some type of decision on Illinois law, either supporting nukes or not before making this kind of business structure decision?
Christopher Crane:
I will let Bill jump in here, but I would not say that, that is going to be a gating function. Bill, I don’t know if you want to add anything to that?
William Von Hoene:
Yes. No, Chris, I agree with what you said. But Steve, you have identified a big point of sensitivity here. As Chris alluded to, we have to take into account, in considering whether to do this or not, a variety of stakeholders, including the communities we serve, our customers, employees and the like. So all of that goes into the equation of not only the substance of this, but the timing of this. There is lots of ground to plow before we get to the exact decision on - before we decide whether we are doing it or not. Number one, the Board has not decided that. And number two, if so, what the timing would be. And obviously, the FRR is relevant to that, but it is hard to - I wouldn’t put it as a gating function. It is a function that is relevant to our consideration of what’s the optimal timing if we decide to do this.
Christopher Crane:
The only thing I would add to that is, if the plants are not profitable, they don’t cover their cash needs or their earning requirements, we shut them down and - with or without FRR. And it is a business decision. Some people have called it a threat. It is not a threat. It is just a reality. When businesses don’t make money on assets, they shut them down. And so we have to look at the timing of all these decisions and make sure we are doing the right thing. But the legislation is important for the value, but we have to make decisions based off of current economic conditions.
Christopher Crane:
Great, thanks and just Bill, great to her your voice. Thanks for the answers.
William Von Hoene:
Thank you for your nice notes to me, I really appreciate it. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thanks you. Our next question comes from the line of James Thalacker from BMO Capital Markets. Your line is now open.
James Thalacker:
Thanks for the time guys and good morning. Just two real quick questions. One is, I know you previously stated you conduct reviews on a regular basis. But in your prior evaluation of the corporate structure, has this process included the retention of outside advisers to help you kind of work through the process? Or is this kind of the next level of review this time around?
Christopher Crane:
No. I think we were very public. In 2017, we used outside advisers, and we did a very, very thorough evaluation. And we looked at the free cash flow coming off of Genco. And at that point, it was accretive to be able to reduce debt, be able to put equity into the Utilities and also support a reasonable dividend policy. So we have kept close advisers as we have looked through this in the past, not only on business structure but assets also. It is nothing that is been insular to the company. It is always been with advice from outside.
James Thalacker:
Okay. Great. I appreciate that. And just 1 last question, I guess, in just thinking, I guess, about cost allocation, as you undergo the review of the potential separation. Is there any initial guidance, I guess, you could give us on how you are thinking about the magnitude of shared services overall across the company and how potentially that falls into the regulated and ExGen buckets? And thoughts on how you sort of mitigate that as if you were to move forward, I guess?
Christopher Crane:
It is too early to go there. I will tell you that we have to be very sensitive to what falls back on the Utilities and what the Genco can manage. And so some of the cost savings that you have seen in this quarterly update is us accelerating that type of focus. Not going too far, but the Genco’s done a lot. The business services organization is accelerating some stuff on technology and contracts and other things that would mitigate those costs when split. One thing about competitive integrated, you get to use the Massachusetts-modified model to spread the costs around. That is a revenue generated formula. We know if or when we do a split that, that goes away. And so we have to figure out how do we keep the financials, right, keep the employee benefits programs in all the databases. I mean you can go through that list of all the complex things that we have to do. But we do understand that the regulators are not going to want to see an increase in costs because we split the company. And the owners of the Genco are going to want to make sure their - the shareholders of the Genco are going to want to make sure that we are the most efficient. So we are working through that now, but we don’t have a number yet.
James Thalacker:
Okay. I appreciate that. And just on Slide 36, you talked roughly about $200 million of the $250 million on the cost savings sort of this year or coming at the ExGen level. Should we think about that as being a decent run rate going forward? Or how much of that do you think you can retain as we move into 2021 and 2022?
Christopher Crane:
I will let Joe jump in on that. There is travel, there are some other smaller things that we are not doing right now. But Joe, you want to take that?
Joseph Nigro:
Yes. Thank you, Chris. This year, we had a goal of $250 million of O&M - or of cost savings across the enterprise. And we are going to overachieve that by about $100 million to $125 million is our expectation. We are working through that right now. To your question about how much of that is repeatable in the future, we are in the throes of analyzing that. To Chris’ point, we have learned a lot here in the last almost 8 months, where we have been working remotely. We have had savings on travel and entertainment. We have had consulting dollar savings, training savings. We have looked at almost everything. And I think there will be things that fall to the bottom line, and we are going through that now. We would expect to provide you an update on that on our fourth quarter call, but there will be things that bleed through. We are just not ready to commit to how much of that is run rate in the future.
James Thalacker:
Okay, great. I appreciate that. Thanks for the time.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet from JPMorgan. Your line is now open.
Jeremy Tonet:
Hi good morning. I just want to speak more on the strategic review. And could you speak more to the financial considerations here? And namely, would ExGen require a bunch of equity to separate from the business, if that is something you could share any details there? And how should we think about the funding needs, growth prospects at Exelon’s Utilities under an independent scenario without the support from ExGen cash flows?
Christopher Crane:
Well, there is still a lot of work going on right now. I don’t think we have an anticipation of that. We are still trying to figure out what level of the ratings that we keep. But Dan, do you want to take it?
Daniel Eggers:
Yes. Thanks, Chris. I mean, Jeremy, I think it is a good question. Right now, I think it is probably a little early to start making calls around balance sheet and capital allocation decisions. You could imagine amongst all the factors we are considering with this review, looking at the credit metrics, working with the agencies, thinking through that is going to be an aspect. Thinking about how ExGen would use the free cash flow that is been funding the Utilities to be part of it, thinking about how the Utilities can fund their growth, both with their internally generated and retained cash flows, but also other sources of funding will all go into the decision. But a number of factors will go into our analysis over the coming months.
Jeremy Tonet:
That is very helpful. And just wondering if you are in a position to share any feedback that you have received in Illinois with response to the retirement announcements that you put out recently?
Christopher Crane:
No. There is some disappointment, as you can imagine, from the communities. There is disappointment from employees. And these are not the first nuclear plants we have had to shut down. Some will say that we make enough money already, we should not shut them down, but that is just not the way businesses work. And so you have to work through the reaction. And the two major constituents that are going to feel the pain here with us shutting these units down, because we are losing so much money, are the employees and the communities. If you look at the taxes and what we provide in the community as far as employment in commerce and - it is not easy. And so you can imagine those communities are trying to figure out what they can do to support us staying - keeping those plants open. But haven’t heard a lot from the legislative side. And I will let Kathleen and Bill jump in on that side.
Kathleen Barron:
Yes. Chris, I can jump in. I mean, as you know, the legislature is not in session. So there has been continued work on potential clean energy legislation through the governor’s working group and similar efforts on both the Senate side and the House side. But until the legislature is back in session, we won’t have a sense of where that is going. But I agree with you that the impact, both on the employees and the communities around the plants, as well as the sort of broader communities in Illinois are watching this because to the extent these plants shut down, what will happen is fossil plants will ramp up, and that will affect communities around the state that are already struggling with air pollution and the effects of COVID. So a lot of folks are watching it for sure.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. Understood. And if I could just ask one last one here. How do you see proposed multiyear plans impacting your return to 9% to 10% ROE target and the sustainability of maintaining that range?
Christopher Crane:
Yes. I will let Calvin answer that one. We have had a couple punches in the gut this year that brought us back down with storms and some other things. But Calvin, you want to cover that?
Calvin Butler:
Absolutely, Chris and good morning. What I would say is that our whole process and working with our regulators in our jurisdictions around multiyear plans was geared to really create a foundation for long-term growth and also giving transparency and accountability to our customers on how this was going. So it is our commitment that we are going to remain in that 9% to 10%, but it is going to be done in a way where it is transparent to our customers and we are able to invest in our system for just to continue to operate a safe and reliable system. So that is the commitment, that is what we are discussing, and we are on course to meet that obligation, as you have heard in Maryland and now in D.C. with both of our utilities in Maryland and in D.C. And we already have very constructive environments in our other jurisdictions. So we are moving forward with that.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. That is great. Thanks that is it for me.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Bank of America. Your line is now open.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
So if I can pick up where Jeremy left off a little bit, can you talk about the balance sheet, especially under any prospects of a spin here? Just want to hear clearly from you all how you are thinking about it. The rating agencies have talked these broadly about ExGen being an investment-grade entity. If I can ask you this way, how committed are you to IG metrics under a spin? I know that you have kind of alluded to this earlier in the call, but I just want to be extra clear about this. And then subsequently, it seems as if in past periods, one of the calculations here has been the implications to the retail business. Can you talk about that side of the equation under any strategic shift?
Christopher Crane:
Joe and Jim, do you want to tag team that one?
Joseph Nigro:
Yes. I think, Chris, the answer to Julien’s question around how committed we are to investment grade, we take our strong balance sheet and our strong investment-grade ratings that we have today, obviously, very seriously. As you mentioned, we are still in the process of evaluating what the spin would look like and all the ramifications of that. And that includes impacts to all the stakeholders you mentioned, the rating agencies being one of those and how it would impact the rating of a Genco that stand alone. But at this point, it is too early to commit to anything along those lines. And with that, I will turn it over to Jim to talk about the retail business.
James McHugh:
Yes, sure. Thanks, gentlemen. And Julien, I guess, likewise, we are working through - over the next period of time over the next few months, we are going to work with the finance team to understand and how we can continue to optimize our business. Our customer-serving business is really the large portion of our overall earnings capability that we bring to the Genco and cash flow capability that we bring to the Genco. We are committed to that. We want to keep that going, and we will work through the structures and the product structures that we need to maintain and to continue to serve those customers and then optimize the management in all the way through the spot market of managing the load and the generation output. So I think we will make sure the impacts are such a way that we can maintain that focus all on the customer and keep our products going and the growth that we see in that business.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
And further kind of clarification, if it is. First, Chris, on carbon and the subject of how that might ultimately translate back to your all’s portfolio here. How do you think the election could impact that? Clearly recognizing states’ rights and a lot of these PPA programs ultimately end up - for the state, right, to implement one way or another. Given that context, how do you think about carbon today as potentially implemented in Illinois eventually?
Christopher Crane:
So what we are trying to do is work at the state level. We have had little traction at the federal level, and it is very polarizing as you know. It doesn’t matter who gets elected, it is still going to be a polarizing issue. So working it through the states and then through the markets because you have got the cross-state leakages is where we have been focused. We will have to see what happens tomorrow and what happens in the House and the Senate, the legislative body where they want to go. We hope they do it as a technology-neutral approach versus what some size of the house and the Senate have gone at technologies versus outcomes. But we will have to see. We are still going to fight at the state level and the market level to make sure that we get the right valuation for our assets. We are the largest non-carbon producing entity with no remunerations for those assets. But like I said earlier, it is nice for editorial or an editor or a politician to say we are looking for a bailout. We are looking to be able to compete with the other non-carbon that people have decided to provide a payment, a valuation for that low carbon output. But when you look at the largest non-carbon emitting source in the country and the largest Non-carbon emitting company in the country and they are competing against other resources that are getting compensated for the value of that, it is just frustrating. But you will pick up the paper tomorrow and somebody will write that Exelon is looking for a bailout. We don’t care about a bailout. We just want to compete. If we don’t compete, we will shut units down.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Understood. quite clear. Thanks Chris and team.
Christopher Crane:
Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Durgesh Chopra from Evercore. Your line is now open.
Durgesh Chopra:
Hey guys, thanks for including me in. Maybe just one quick one on the quarter, and then I want to go back to the strategic review. Just on the quarter, you showed this projected cash flow slide with the 2020 balance. The balance is significantly lower, like $400 million lower versus the Q2 call and your guidance is up. So just wondering what drives that.
Joseph Nigro:
Yes. Chris, I can take that.
Christopher Crane:
Take that Joe. Yes.
Joseph Nigro:
Yes. So yes, there is a couple of things going on. Our free cash flow from our operations across the enterprise were up for the quarter. But we did see - because of that, number one, we had an assumption of kind of less requirement for working capital needs. And then more importantly, we had some movement in cash flow on other activity related to Exelon Generation, and there were just a number of small factors at normal-type quarter activity that moved the cash flow for the quarter, even though the earnings were up pretty materially versus the range we would given last quarter.
Durgesh Chopra:
Okay. That is helpful. Understood. And just really quickly, Chris, you mentioned FRR not a gating factor. Maybe just to the extent that you can, could you procedurally talk about the next steps here? And if there is a time line that internally you guys are working on to get this strategic review over?
Christopher Crane:
Yes. I can tell you that although the FRR and the legislation is critical for the communities and the employees, we have to make our business decisions. I think we are going through the review right now and trying to evaluate the complications of the potential separation, but we wouldn’t use that as the gating factor. So once we get through the very complicated review, we would like to provide a whole lot more color on the fourth quarter call. Not guaranteeing were done or saying we would be done by then, but that will be the view of where we think we are heading. Dan, I don’t know if you want to say anything else?
Daniel Eggers:
No, Chris, I think you have covered it.
Christopher Crane:
Alright.
Durgesh Chopra:
Okay guys. Thanks so much. Great quarter.
Christopher Crane:
Thanks.
Operator:
At this time, I’m showing no further questions, I would like to turn the call back over to Chris Crane for closing remarks.
Christopher Crane:
Yes. I just want to thank everybody for joining the call. It is a busy day. Election’s going on, all kinds of concern about stability in the country. And so for us to be able to share your time, it is appreciated. I really want to thank the employees for their commitment and dedication. We have had a lot of stuff going on this year, not only the COVID, the storms, and the things that they have had to work through. And I hope that you and your families are safe and healthy. And with that, I will close the call.
Operator:
Hello, and welcome to Exelon's Second Quarter Earnings Call. My name is Nora and I will be your events specialist today. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. Please note that today's webcast is being recorded. During the presentation, we will have a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] It is now my pleasure to turn today's program over to Dan Eggers, Senior Vice President of Corporate Finance. Sir, the floor is yours.
Daniel Eggers:
Thank you, Nora. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our second quarter 2020 earnings conference call. Leading the call today are Chris Crane, Exelon's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Joe Nigro, Exelon's Chief Financial Officer. They're joined by other members of Exelon's senior management team who will be available to answer your questions following our prepared remarks. We issued our earnings release this morning along with the presentation, both of which can be found in the Investor Relations section of Exelon's website. The earnings release and other matters, which we discuss during today's call, contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ from our forward-looking statements based on factors and assumptions discussed in today's material and comments made during this call. Please refer to today's 8-K and Exelon's other SEC filings for discussions of risk factors and other factors, including uncertainties surrounding the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic that may cause results to differ from management's projections, forecasts and expectations. Today's presentation also includes references to adjusted operating earnings and other non-GAAP measures. Please refer to the information contained in the appendix of our presentation and our earnings release for reconciliations between the non-GAAP measures and the nearest equivalent GAAP measures. I'll now turn the call over to Chris Crane, Exelon's CEO.
Christopher Crane:
Thanks Dan and I appreciate everybody joining the call this morning and spending time with us. Starting off, as you've seen from our releases this morning, the GAAP basis -- on a GAAP basis, we earned $0.53 per share; on a non-GAAP basis, we earned $0.55 per share. We had a great quarter, outperforming our guidance range of $0.35 to $0.45 per share due to achieving cost savings earlier than planned. Joe will get into it. Our load assumptions came out how we expected, but we've had excellent operations, but also have confronted some serious challenges throughout the quarter. First, ComEd reached an agreement with U.S. Attorney's office in Illinois, that concludes -- includes a three-year deferred prosecution agreement and a payment of $200 million, which ends the investigations into ComEd and Exelon. We have taken robust actions to identify and address deficiencies, including enhancing our compliance governance to prevent this type of conduct. We apologize for the past conduct that did not live up to our values. These new policies and oversight will ensure it won't happen again. We're extremely disappointed in the seriousness of the past misconduct, and we know many stakeholders understandably feel the same disappointment. We have -- you have our commitment that we will take every possible step to earn back the confidence and trust we have lost with others. This will not happen overnight and it will be a formidable task, but we are resolved to get there. Second, the country is addressing the important issues of racial and inequity and social justice, and we are doing so as well. Our employees and communities, our customers are diverse, and we have a critical leadership role in pursuing equity and fairness for all those who are facing ingrained injustice and discrimination. That means living our values both within and outside the walls of our company. Sponsoring job programs in underserved communities is a big focus of ours, developing a larger base of diverse suppliers in our footprint, supporting through philanthropic and volunteerism a wide variety of organizations, pursuing equity, and economic development, making it clear what our values are through action and speaking up when we see injustice. Focus -- our focus on our values of respect, diversity and inclusion cannot waiver, and we know Black Lives Matter, all of our diverse communities matter, and we're standing to protect them and help serve them. We've doubled down on our work to support our diverse and underserved customers and communities since we all are impacted by continued inequity, and we must do more. Switching to the COVID issue. COVID-19 continues to impact our communities. We remain focused on safety of our employees, running our operations at the best-in-class levels and supporting our customers and communities, incorporate pandemic-related policies into our management model that keep our employees and our contractors safe, implementing responsible reentry plans that predict -- are predicting on key milestones that will ensure employees' safety and confidence that they can come back to the workplace. We've created contingency plans to monitor system configuration and allow us for rapid emergency response in storm or normal operations. And providing a deferred payment arrangement for residential and low income customers that are affected by the high rate of unemployment that we're dealing with in the communities that we serve. On the operational highlights. Operations are strong with the pandemic conditions and extreme storms across the territory. In early June, PECO faced its eighth largest storm in history, which brought sustained winds of over 40 miles per hour and gusts of more than 60 miles per hour. 400 customers were out within an hour of the storm beginning, and -- but we were able to restore 80% of those customers with widespread damage in 36 hours. We had already prepared and drilled new procedures for storm response during the pandemic. 80% of our back office storm rolls are performed now remotely. Within 48 hours, 3,750 contractors and mutual assistance personnel were safely on-site in the PECO region to restore customers and onboard -- they were onboarded electronically, which -- we continue to develop the techniques for that. Despite the pandemic and the active storm season, all Utilities are in top quartile for outage duration and outage frequency. Nuclear had its best second quarter capacity factor in more than a decade at 95.4%. Safety -- we safely completed in this quarter five appealing [ph] averages. There's been eight for the year, and most ahead of schedule while protecting our employees and the contractors. Power dispatch match was 97.4% and our renewable capture rate was 92.7%. So, overall, very, very strong operational performance. We also continue to focus on our environmental stewardship. In July, we released our 2019 Corporate Sustainability Report that shows the accomplishments that we made. Benchmarking air emissions report once again found Exelon as the lowest carbon emission rate of the top 20 investor-owned power producers, nearly five times less than the number two producer and the largest producer of carbon-free generation. In 2019, utility energy efficiency programs helped customers save 22.3 million megawatt hours and avoid 8.7 million metric tons of carbon. Exelon Utilities set a goal to electrify 30% of the vehicle fleet by 2025 and 50% by 2030, avoiding more than 65,000 metric tons of carbon from 2020 to 2030. We're committed to deliver affordable zero emissions power in helping our customers and our community reduce the harmful emissions that there -- exist in their communities. These efforts are important to transition to a clean energy economy, but they are not enough to address the climate crisis. We continue to advocate for policies at the state and federal levels that will address the challenges. Now, I'm going to turn the call over to Joe for the financial update.
Joseph Nigro:
Thank you, Chris and good morning everyone. Today, I will cover our second quarter results, our quarterly financial updates, including trailing 12-month ROEs at the Utilities, and our hedge disclosures. Turning to slide nine, we earned $0.53 per share on a GAAP basis and $0.55 per share on a non-GAAP basis, which exceeded our guidance range of $0.35 to $0.45 per share. Exelon Utilities delivered a combined $0.29 per share net of holding company expenses. Utility earnings were modestly higher relative to expectations, driven largely by ComEd formula rate timing and O&M timing, which was partially offset by the record-setting storm in the Philadelphia area, which cost for $0.04 per share to PECO. ExGen outperformed expectations for the second quarter, earning $0.26 per share. The upside was largely driven by lower O&M, where we saw targeted savings for 2020 coming sooner than we originally budgeted. These savings were realized by lower outage cost, lower labor costs, travel and entertainment, and training costs being lower as well. On the last call, we introduced -- we announced $250 million of savings across the organization to help offset the impacts of COVID-19, which we expected would be more weighted to the back half of this year. The organization has been hard at work and is on track to achieve these savings in 2020, with some coming earlier than anticipated, as you can see in our second quarter results. During the quarter, load at the Utility and Constellation was in line with our expectations. For the third quarter, we expect earnings of $0.80 to $0.90 per share, and we are affirming our full year guidance of $2.80 to $3.10 per share. On slide 10, we show our quarter-over-quarter earnings walk. The $0.55 per share in second quarter of this year was $0.05 per share lower than the second quarter of 2019. Exelon Utilities less Holdco earnings were down $0.10 per share compared with last year. The decrease was driven primarily by storm costs at PECO, ComEd formula rate timing, and higher bad debt expense, partially offset by favorable weather at PECO. ExGen's earnings were up $0.05 per share compared with last year, benefiting from lower O&M and income taxes. This was partially offset by lower capacity revenue, primarily in PJM, and the impacts of COVID-19 on load and bad debt expense. Turning to slide 11, looking at our Utility returns on a consolidated basis, we remain in our consolidated 9% to 10% target range, with a 9.1% trailing 12-month ROE as of the second quarter. Earned ROEs for the Utilities remained above 9%, but dipped from last quarter by 60 basis points. The decline was primarily driven by lower earnings at PECO as a result of the storm --- June storm, higher bad debt at PECO and PHI, and declining treasury yields, which impacted ComEd's ROE. As a reminder, this calculation is backward looking, so as we think about the next couple of quarters, you should expect to see some pressure on ROEs as we roll off the better pre-COVID-19 earnings quarters and carry the burdens of PECO's poor first quarter weather and second quarter storms as well as the impact of lower treasuries on ComEd. These headwinds are captured in our full year guidance, so you should have the financial impact already assumed. Looking further into the future, we remain focused on delivering stronger earned returns at the Utilities and supporting our growth targets. Turning to slide 12, I since the last call, there were some important developments on the regulatory front. First, regulators in all our jurisdictions have approved COVID-19 recovery mechanisms. Second, BGE was the first utility in Maryland to file a multiyear plan after getting the green light on this approach from the Maryland PSC in February. The filing will support planned capital investments from 2020 to 2023 as well investments made in late 2019 to maintain an increased reliability and benefit customer service for our electric and gas distribution system. The critical infrastructure sector will be a key component to Maryland's economic recovery, and BGE has designed a multiyear energy infrastructure investment and customer relief plan to assist with the economic recovery. BGE will invest more than $5 billion to fund enhancements to the safety, reliability, security, resiliency and environmental attributes of the grid and improve customers' experience. BGE is expected to support more than 26,000 jobs and have at least $15 billion of economic impact over the three-year period, which is critical as communities manage through the pandemic recovery. In conjunction with the filing, BGE will provide customer relief and assistance in 2020 to 2023 for limited income customers and small businesses. We expect an order this December. Third, in June, Pepco filed their multiyear plan enhanced proposal in D.C. with the PSC, addressing the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and current economic challenges. The enhanced plan would expand and establish a series of customer programs, targeting those that have been hardest hit, including small businesses, non-profits, and our residential customers. The flexibility of the multiyear plan structure provides Pepco the ability to offer these innovative adjustments in response to the pandemic. We expect an order by year-end. Fourth, ComEd's annual formula rate update filing is expected to be decided in December of this year. This filing requests a reduction in delivery rates for the third year in a row and the fifth decrease in 10 years. Since the formula rate has been in place, ComEd's investments in modernizing the grid's reliability, resiliency, and clean energy growth have improved reliability by 70%, while keeping bills lower than they were nearly a decade ago. And finally, last month, Delmarva and Maryland received a final order for its distribution rate case. The Maryland commission approved the proposed order by the Public Utility Law Judge that recommended an $11.7 million increase in annual electric distribution revenues. Importantly, the order increased Delmarva's allowed ROE by 10 basis points to 9.6%. We believe it is recognition of strong performance and reliability and customer satisfaction. More details on the rate cases can be found on slides 24 through 30 of the appendix. Turning to slide 13, we are continuing our robust capital deployment program at the Utilities, investing $1.5 billion during the second quarter. Year-to-date, we have invested $2.9 billion of capital into our Utilities, improving our infrastructure and increasing reliability and resiliency for the benefit of all of our customers. Despite some early challenges from the pandemic, we are on track for the year. Today, I will discuss two projects that are part of these efforts and will bring improved performance to our customers in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. The first project is Atlantic City Electric Moss Mills - Moss Farm transmission line rebuild, which is a $69 million project to rebuild 15 miles of 69 kV transmission lines and poles. This project upgrades a critical transmission line that runs through the entire Northeastern portion of the Atlantic City territory in New Jersey spanning three different counties. Additionally, the Chestnut Neck Substation will be retired and replaced with a modernized mobile-ready substation, allowing for incremental flexibility. The second project is PECO's upland substation project in Philadelphia. The $68 million project includes replacement of an existing 75-year old substation with a new modernized substation and extension of 230 kV transmission lines and new 13 kV feeders into West Philadelphia. This project improves infrastructure that serves 10,000 customers in the Overbrook and Bala areas, including hospitals and universities. It will also enable customers to implement solar energy solutions. PECO engaged local diverse companies to participate with project implementation and construction, which provided approximately 250,000 construction hours. On slide 14, we provide our gross margin update and current hedging strategy at the generation company. Turning to the table, there is no change in total gross margin in 2020 or 2021 since the last quarter. We executed new business consistent with our plan. In 2020, open gross margin is flat to the first quarter, and we executed $100 million of power new business and $50 million of non-power new business. In 2021, open gross margin increased by $200 million due to increasing power prices across most regions. This was offset by our hedges and lower capacity revenues in New York and uncleared capacity from the PJM incremental auctions. In 2021, we executed $50 million of power new business and $50 million of non-power new business. We remain slightly behind our ratable hedging program in 2021 by 4% to 7% when considering cross commodity hedges. On slide 15, I'll give a brief update on Constellation's business and what we've seen to date on load performance. During the second quarter, commercial and industrial customer load was in line with our expectations. Load was within our down 9% to 15% projected range, although it varied from week to week. Our load forecast for the remainder of the year is unchanged. As we get more information, we are getting a better handle on the impacts from COVID-19, which is helping us to monitor how specific regions, customers and industries are behaving with respect to COVID-19 impacts as they continue to evolve. Additionally, we are working with our large customers to better understand their load impacts and outlook. Even as we evolve to an ever-changing landscape, our focus remains on being strategic partners with our customers and providing clean energy products. We work with our customers by providing proactive analytics and insights on their current loads, tools to manage and optimize in real-time, and navigate emerging trends such as electrification impacts to their businesses, while also reaching their environmental and sustainability goals. This partnership is key to our success and provides the most stability for our business via high retention rates and consistent margins. Moving on to slide 16, we are committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet and investment-grade credit ratings. Our consolidated FFO to debt is projected to be 18% for 2020, consistent with last quarter. This reflects the pressures from COVID-19 as discussed in detail last quarter. Looking at ExGen, we are ahead of our debt-to-EBITDA target of 3.0 times. For 2020, we expect to be at 2.5 times and 2.0 times when excluding nonrecourse debt. On the rating front, in July, Fitch affirmed our ratings and S&P took action to downgrade ComEd's issuer credit rating. However, S&P reaffirmed the senior secured and short-term ratings at ComEd, therefore, not impacting our anticipated cost of borrowing. Furthermore, S&P changed the ratings outlook for Exelon Corporate, PECO, Pepco Holdings, ComEd, and ExGen to negative from stable. While we were disappointed in these actions, we remain committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet and investment-grade credit ratings. We have successfully executed all of our planned long-term debt financings for the year. The 2020 financing plan was significantly accelerated to take advantage of attractive market conditions and provide ample short-term liquidity, leaving us well positioned for the balance of the year. The issuances in the second quarter were all meaningfully oversubscribed, and we secured record-setting low interest rates at the Utilities. Thank you. I'll now turn the call back to Chris for his closing remarks.
Christopher Crane:
Thanks Joe and thanks for the comprehensive report. Finally, turning to slide 17, I'll close on Exelon's value proposition, which is unchanged. We're focused on growing our utilities, targeting 7.3% rate base growth and a 6% to 8% EPS growth through 2023. We will use the free cash flow as we have done from the Genco to support utility growth, pay down Genco debt and support some of the external dividend. We continue to optimize the value of the Gen business by seeking fair compensation for our zero emitting generation fleet, closing uneconomic plants and monetizing assets and maximizing their value through the Constellation avenue. We will sustain strong investment-grade credit metrics. We have remained committed to that and will not waiver. And we'll grow our dividend at this point right now annually at 5% through 2020. The strategic underpinning of this value proposition is sound, effective in providing tangible benefits for our stakeholders. Operator, we can now turn the call over for questions. Thank you.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Shar Pourreza of Guggenheim Partners. Your line is open.
Shar Pourreza:
Hey good morning guys.
Christopher Crane:
Good morning.
Joseph Nigro:
Good morning.
Shar Pourreza:
Just two questions here. First, on financing, as we sort of think about some of the moving pieces, like obviously, the sizable organic growth of the Utilities, minimal headroom from a credit perspective, the CENG buyout, potentially maybe higher uncollectibles, Joe, do you sort of currently envision any kind of potential scenarios, maybe in the next 12 months, that would require you to have to issue equity?
Joseph Nigro:
Yes. Shar, thank you for the question. And as you know, we've received this question many times over the last few months. As I said in my prepared remarks, we're committed to a strong investment-grade rating, and it's a central tenant to our business and it has been quite frankly for a very long time. We go through a very rigorous planning process, and we disclose the results of that process each year on our fourth quarter call and under that most recent plan, there is no equity issuance in the plan. Last month, we kicked off that process for our next plan that will take us through the end of this year. And as you can imagine, Shar, there's many variables that go into that process, market prices for power, obviously, treasury rates, our load forecast, our O&M projections, what our capital plans are, funding strategy when you think about debt. And obviously, we still have the FRR out there, and that will be taken into account. So, what I would say is we don't take any one of those variables in isolation. They obviously all work together to create the basis for our plan. We've been successful in -- with our strong balance sheet and growing our Utilities, and we've been harvesting the cash flow of ExGen to help do that. We also look at the levers we have, right? We've been pretty successful with our cost cuttings over the last five years, obviously. We've sold some assets. We look at alternative financing arrangements. And the last thing on that list is equity. But in our current plan, there is no need for equity and as we move through the planning process and that takes us through the end of the year, we'll relay or communicate the outcome of that on our fourth quarter call.
Shar Pourreza:
Great. And then, Chris, just on -- a question for you on strategy. I mean, in the past, it felt like you weren't confident if the ExGen business could be spun out without IG rating sufficient scale. With what we're seeing with IPPs eventually going IG, which would certainly alleviate the liquidity requirements, others looking at their own merchant fossil fleet as they de-risk, can you give us any refreshed thoughts on the Genco as a strategic fit within the portfolio over the long-term? I guess do you now have some incremental confidence that the Genco business could eventually stand on its own without the support from corporate? I mean a transaction would obviously alleviate balance sheet concerns and in the valuation disconnect, and we've obviously seen a few players looking to simplify kind of their own structures. So, whether we're talking about the entire fleet or simply the fossil fuel assets, has your strategic thinking kind of changed over the past, let's say, 12 months?
Christopher Crane:
So, it is something that we look at on a regular basis, and we do a deep dive strategic review of the benefits of keeping the two companies bolted -- or the two lines bolted together versus what are the alternatives. We have enjoyed a period of time of free cash flow from the Genco that has allowed us to have a significant investment into the Utilities for the benefit of the customers over a period of time since our last review. As you can imagine, it's something that we always look at. And I understand the basis of the question with the recent announcements from two other companies on where they have decided to go. But right now, there's work to be done to create the certainty and the value of the cash flows that would be maintained to allow a company to either stand on its own or continue to support the growth of the other side of the business. And so we're in the middle of trying to work through a legislative strategy in Illinois. We're on firm ground in New York. I know there's work going on in New Jersey. We have to look at the value of the assets and what's going on in Maryland and what can be done there legislatively to compensate the assets for their low carbon output. So, it's something we look at, and it's something that we think we have been very clear on from the beginning. And it's good to see other IPPs coming along and understanding the value of being investment-grade and not having stressed balance sheets with commodity cyclicality like we see. But we think we can improve the value further and the strength further to be able to serve the states and the communities that we serve with good, well-paying jobs, a strong balance sheet. And then we will continue to assess to -- do the assets stay bolted together through a corporate holding company structure or is it better for all stakeholders involved to have some type of separation of the entities. The one thing I can tell you is there's an annual review on all the non-nuclear assets to see if they propose more value to others than we have projected for ourselves, and that annual review will continue. And as we see assets that could perform better in somebody else's portfolio and we could monetize those assets, we'll do that. There's assets that we'll shut down that aren't carrying their own weight. There are assets in New England that have a finite period of time under the ISO's regulation. And so there is a constant flux in our nonnuclear business that we'll continue to evaluate with our focus on strong balance sheet debt reduction and optimizing what we have on the balance sheet.
Shar Pourreza:
Terrific. Thanks Joe and Chris and congrats on good results and tough year. Appreciate it.
Christopher Crane:
Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Steven Fleishman of Wolfe Research. Your line is open.
Steven Fleishman:
Yes, hi. Thanks.
Christopher Crane:
Hey Steve.
Steven Fleishman:
Hey Chris. The Illinois, I guess, ComEd deferred agreement and fine. Could you just maybe give kind of views on implications that you're seeing for addressing the clean energy law and -- if any? And then also on future of the rate-making structure. Any thought there [ph] would be helpful.
Christopher Crane:
Sure. I'm going to let Joe Dominguez jump in on the second half of the question. He's here with us in the room. The first half of the question, does it affect the Exelon Generation's drive for legislation on changing the capacity market. There's an obvious issue that trust has been eroded. Although it's isolated to ComEd, it has effect on all the entities. And so there's been a lot of press reporting and there's been some disappointed stakeholders and is rightfully so. And so our job is to rebuild the trust of those that we serve and make sure that we can show that we have done a fantastic job, and Joe will cover some of this, in the investments that have been made at ComEd and what the rate structure is done for us. It has been totally super beneficial to the consumer. But there's a period of time where we're just going to have to continue outreach conversation and show our commitment to ethical behavior that doesn't compromise our integrity or the trustworthiness of us going forward. So, we're still working to engage with stakeholders on a capacity market redesign. It's very critical for us to get it done. As you know, PJM is going to run an auction. And there's a strong sense from our analytic folks that the -- some of the nuclear units are not going to be picked up in that auction. Some are uneconomic at this point right now and some more may become uneconomic. And our commitment to you has always been if we can't find a way or path to profitability, we'll have to shut them down, which is a sad turn of events that will affect the state's goals on carbon reduction, it will severely affect the communities around the plants and the very high paying, critical jobs that those communities benefit from. So, -- but it's an unfortunate thing. We apologize for what went on. We had a code of conduct that clearly defined the behaviors, but it wasn't enough. And so we've put controls in place to ensure it will never happen again. And we have to work with stakeholders, not only legislative and elected folks, but our customers and our other stakeholders and the communities that we serve to rebuild that trust. One thing I can tell you is this company is committed to doing the right thing for the communities that we serve, not only through philanthropic activities, but also volunteerism. I think you can look at us in all the communities we serve, and we're probably the strongest corporate partner out there, and we're going to continue that. And we know that we're only as good as a company as the communities that we serve. So, that's what we've got to get back to. This is the most unfortunate thing to happen, not just because of time, it's because of trust. And it's because of a small amount of individuals making decisions that should not have been done, and it shouldn't have gone undetected. But with that said, we still remain confident that the consumers have been protected, served. And as you heard me say, we have lower rates and high reliability than we did 10 years ago. And so that's because we have a strong regulations -- a regulatory body that's focused on the same thing that we're focused on, is reliable, affordable, clean energy. With that, I'll let Joe talk about what his thoughts are on rates making and regulatory process.
Joseph Dominguez:
Thanks Chris. I think -- Steve, I think Chris covered a lot of it, just to level set for the folks on the call. The formula rate continues through the end of 2022. So, we'll -- we have some additional time to see what the future looks like, whether it's a continuation of the formula with additional transparency or a return to traditional rate making. As both Chris and Joe talked about, we think the formula has provided enormous benefits to our customers. If you take a look at page seven on the deck, you see the key metrics, and you see all green for ComEd. But in a certain sense, that almost understates the performance at ComEd. We are not only top quartile in all those dimensions, we're actually top decile in all of those dimensions. And last year at ComEd, we had the best-performing year ever in the history of the company, over 110 years best-performing year. And as I look at the metrics at the close of July, we are tracking 20% better than last year in SAIFI and 11% better in CAIDI. So, we've still got a number of months to go, but very, very proud of the team at ComEd and the operational performance. Customer satisfaction is highest it's ever been. We were J.D. Power's number 1 Midwest utility at the end of 2019. We had never achieved that objective. So, I focus on that because -- for two reasons. One, the transformation that's occurred at ComEd and it's been recognized here. And second, we always tell you that from an Exelon perspective, and Chris says this virtually every call, that we think of good regulatory and political outcomes as being driven by good operational performance. And I think at ComEd, we can lay claim to perhaps having the best operational performance in the country. So, we'll see what that looks like going forward. From comments from the governor's office that we've recently seen, it's clear that, at least from his perspective, the formula was tied to the transformation that's occurred, the investments in smart meters and other devices. And to the extent that there is a renewal or a new methodology that's installed, that's going to have to be related to a new policy objective, and that's tied up in a lot of the clean energy goals. But I guess from my perspective, Steve, whether we continue with the formula or whether we return to traditional rate making, I think the entire team at ComEd believes it's got to be constructive. And one reason we're confident in that is that there's been an evolution in Illinois. As we've been in the formula, Illinois policy for ratemaking has evolved. The state now uses forward-looking test years and the gas utilities have used that. That's been constructive. We're decoupled as a state. We have bad debt and other rider mechanisms that are strong and transparent and better than we were in 2011 when we first went to the formula. But I guess the biggest difference that I would point to is the operational performance between 2011 and now is so much better. If you take the thesis that operational performance drives regulatory results, then in a certain sense, the outcomes we were seeing in 2011 were driven by poor operational performance at ComEd and today, that's a different story. And so the final point I would make is we've had an eight-year history of making the investments in underground cables and poles and including smart devices across our system. Not only -- the commission has seen that now for eight years. What we'd be continuing, whether it's in a formula rate or traditional rate making, is those programs that have been wildly successful in terms of improving reliability, integrating clean energy, making the system more resilient in the face of climate change, and doing all of that stuff and keeping customer bills low. As Chris said, our average bill today -- or I think Joe said this, is lower than it was 10 years ago. And in part, that's a story about wholesale power prices. But in big measure, it's about energy efficiency at ComEd and the overall efficiency of the organization. So, the punchline for me is this, Steve. Regardless of whether we're in formula or not, I think we've got good alignment in terms of the investments we're making in the system. We're going to continue to make those prudent investments going forward, and I think the results are going to be constructive.
Steven Fleishman:
Great. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith of Bank of America. Your line is open.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey good morning. Thanks for the time.
Christopher Crane:
Hey good morning. Thanks for joining.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Thank you. Listen, perhaps just to pick up where we left off on the last question, if I can. Can you speak specifically to the Utility and bending the relationship in terms of the franchise arrangement? I mean maybe that's a Joe question again, but can you provide some context in that process, the back and forth, obviously, in the public? And then at the same time, just to clarify the last response, if you can. In an event in which the formula rates are not extended, it would be conceivable that you go back to a traditional ratemaking contract in which you would benefit or at least you would have available to you those mechanisms you just alluded to, Joe. I just want to make sure we're explicit about that as well.
Joseph Nigro:
Yes, that's right. Chris is it okay if I go?
Christopher Crane:
Yes, go, please.
Joseph Nigro:
Yes, sure. So Julien, let me answer the short question that you asked last first. Yes, if we return to traditional rate making, we would intend to file a rate case using a forward-looking test year, and that rate case would likely be filed in the first quarter of 2023. So, that's number one. In terms of the franchise agreement, we've been through a process with the city where we've been meeting periodically just about every week, although that got interrupted a bit with COVID. We're making good progress, I thought, on the franchise agreement. Then we have the DPA. And we had a hearing last week with City Council and also some input from the Mayor's office. The Mayor's office indicated that from her perspective, two things need to happen before we could continue the conversation around the franchise agreement. One is we have to deal with the ethics reforms and the compliance mechanisms. And from my perspective, that is assuring the city that the measures we've taken are the appropriate ones and then having reporting requirements and other things with the city so that they understand that we're implementing those and that we're moving forward appropriately. The Mayor has a big ethics agenda, so we're going to embrace that ethics agenda. Here, the hiring of Dave Glockner, which we've talked about before, is quite an important piece. Dave has -- comes to us with an impeccable reputation. As many of you know, he came out of the U.S. Attorney's office, serving as Chief of the Criminal Division at that office for 11 years. But most importantly, and for folks outside of Northern Illinois, you don't see this, but Dave has an unbelievable reputation within the community. And for folks like the Mayor who have served in the U.S. Attorney's office as a colleague of Dave's, that's quite an important point. But we need to work through ensuring that we have a transparent mechanism of providing regular updates to the city in terms of the adherence to the new protocols that we've adopted. That's one piece of it. The Mayor has also indicated that we need to be committed to the goals of sustainability, to the goals of equitable and affordable energy for all customers in the city. And that's kind of the sweet spot of our strategy around electrification, around clean energy, energy efficiency, the many jobs programs we sponsor. So, we look forward to a good conversation on that. There's a tangential issue relating to the franchise agreement that being the issue of the city's takeover or municipalization of the grid here in Chicago. We've spoken about that previously on this call. Commissioner Reynolds, who is leading for the city the negotiations with ComEd, testified at the hearing last week and indicated that the city will have a feasibility study out shortly on the possibility of municipalization. At least he indicated in his testimony that, that would -- that the view would be that, that would not be feasible. And there's a few big reasons for that. One is it's a $5 billion to $6 billion system and then the separation cost would be another $5 billion. So, I think we'll tie together a few of these issues here. We need to assure the city of the reforms I've talked about. We'll have a conversation about the programs around clean energy, electrification, jobs programs, benefits to customers' affordability. And then I imagine we'll continue to have this backdrop of municipalization. But if the feasibility study comes out as Commissioner Reynolds indicated, I don't think that's going to necessarily be a pathway. But we have our work to do with the city. I'm confident we will get there. It may take a year or more to hash out. That's something Commissioner Reynolds indicated as well. But the way our franchise agreement works, and I've talked about this previously on this call, is that if it has not continued, it simply rolls over year-to-year on its own terms. It's like a lease in that sense where it just automatically renews year-to-year. So, that's probably more than you wanted to hear, Julien, but that's the whole story on the franchise agreement.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Excellent guys. Thank you. I'll leave it there.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Stephen Byrd of Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
Stephen Byrd:
Hi, good morning.
Christopher Crane:
Hey Stephen, how are you doing?
Stephen Byrd:
Good. Congrats on a good quarter. Just want to follow-up on Shar's question just as you think about your credit outlook. Joe, you gave a very thorough response. I was just thinking through, I guess, your prior plan, which did not include equity, had you hitting the credit stats. And you mentioned in response to the last question, just a variety of things that could impact those credit stats. But I was just wondering at the high level, as you think about the kind of the major puts and takes that as you see it, that can impact your credit stats, I was thinking about, for example, Constellation on one end in terms of the temporarily weak demand. But what are kind of the bigger puts and takes that you're just thinking through as you think about your credit stats since the last time you had the full planning process?
Joseph Nigro:
Yes, I think there's a number of elements associated with that, right? I mean, obviously, treasuries have an impact at ComEd. They have an impact on our pension and other things, right? You think about market prices, and you mentioned load, that clearly plays into it. We expect mostly to see recovery by the time we get into 2021. There is some minor impacts that we talked about the last quarter. We control things like cost, right? We'll continue to challenge ourselves in that regard. There's other variables, too, right? We just talked about the Illinois legislation, what is the outcome of that. That will have a -- obviously be a binary impact. How much capital are we putting into our Utilities and what that looks like? And all of those things go into the -- to the decision-making. Chris talked about on economic assets and actions around those. We've clearly sold assets where we thought the market had higher values on them. We've looked at alternative financings and have used project financing. We did the securitization of the receivables at Constellation. So, there's a lot of elements to it, Stephen. Some are kind of decisions we control. Others, we're part of and we're working on, and they build upon themselves. And ultimately, we -- our dividend, we have to make a recommendation to the Board at the end of this year, and we'll do that and determine how much capital we're putting in across our footprint and then from there, we'll see what the funding plan looks like.
Christopher Crane:
The one thing that I would add is the uneconomic. We will not run plants and lose free cash flow or earning on assets that are not supporting themselves. It is very unfortunate for the communities that we serve, the employees, but we will not let the balance sheet get further deteriorated by non-profitable assets, then we will take swift action to resolve that dive in cash flow and earnings. So, we're doing everything possible to prevent that, but it's a reality. We've shut two units down in the recent years. We could not see a path to sustainability of those assets in the portfolio. Not the greatest decisions we ever had to make, and we understand the impact that has on the communities that we serve, the environmental goals of the states and the economic impact of the states. But maintaining an investment-grade that can support the remaining facilities is our main focus.
Stephen Byrd:
That's very clear. Separately, just thinking about your cost control, you all have had good success in cost savings. Just thinking about potential benefits beyond the near term of those cost savings, is there any potential, for example, for that to create better customer rate headroom that could result in more CapEx at the Utilities? How do you think about sort of sustainability of cost savings? And if you're able to sustain some of those savings, sort of what other knock-on benefits you could see?
Christopher Crane:
Well, as you know, on the third quarter call each year, we announce the next round of cost savings. I can tell you there's a significant effort and contingency planning going on within the generating company and the BSC, the Business Services Company. Now, on -- if we maintain the fleet as we have it, how are we going to do it more economically, how are we using technology. Then a significant amount of work in the financial organization, HR, legal, other organizations to look at the world differently. And we'll announce our next round probably in third quarter -- fourth quarter. I'm looking at Dan to make sure I'm answering right because he's responsible for this, and he's waving his hands at me. So, the fourth quarter call. But -- and we'll have a better picture of the future life of the nuclear fleet by that point. And if we are in the mode of unfortunately retiring plants, you can imagine that we'll have a significant reduction in the BSC overheads that could go back to the benefit of the customers from the modified Massachusetts formula. I wouldn't necessarily say it gives them more headroom to spend capital. We spend capital that is needed capital for reliability and customer service. But it should -- if the -- it should benefit the customers and take some of the overhead burden off of the utilities as we continue to refine how we can do work cheaper, better, faster, be very efficient, while serving the communities and the customers. There's one thing we've learned during this pandemic. Our real estate footprint may not have to be as big as it is right now. We are very efficiently working with about 17,000 people working remotely. And there's a group right now that's assessing not only a safe reentry around the first of the year for some portion of the workforce that's not on the line and maintaining the system or the plants or backing those individuals up. But we will take a very strong look at all expenses around and footprint around facilities. We've closed the books with the controller's organization, only having a few people come in for a couple of days. And audit has maintained its schedule and it's in-depth audit programs. So, we're doing a lot, and we're learning a lot, and I think that's going to translate into more savings as we go forward. But looking at Dan again, I guess I'm not going to be committal on the time. But they're all squirming around me right now. I'll -- we'll be back to you at the end of the year with that.
Stephen Byrd:
That's great. Thank you so much. Appreciate it.
Operator:
Thank you. I would now like to turn the call back over to Chris Crane. Please go ahead, sir.
Christopher Crane:
Yes. Thank you all again for joining the call. I want to thank you for the time. I really want to thank our employees for their commitment and dedication. As you can imagine, onboarding 1,200 and contractors onto a nuclear site with all the site employees on deck, going through testing and screening and answering the questions and still getting stuff done at world-class performance and efficiency, our Utilities maintaining the highest levels of reliability. And right now, we've got 200 folks, 100 ComEd employees and 100 contractors, driving across the country to support our eastern Utilities for outages. So, I think they arrived today. And so the willingness and the dedication is fantastic. I hope that you and your families are safe and healthy. And with that, I'll close out the call.
Operator:
Thanks to all our participants for joining us today. This concludes our presentation. You may now disconnect and have a good day.
Operator:
Hello, and welcome to today's webcast. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. Please note that today's webcast is being recorded. During the presentation, we will have a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] It is now my pleasure to turn today's program over to Dan Eggers, Senior Vice President of Corporate Finance. The floor is yours.
Daniel Eggers:
Thank you, Mary. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our first quarter 2020 earnings conference call. Leading the call today are Chris Crane, Exelon's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Joe Nigro, Exelon's Chief Financial Officer. They're joined by other members of Exelon's senior management team, who will be available to answer your questions following our prepared remarks. We issued our earnings release this morning, along with the presentation, both of which can be found in the Investor Relations section of Exelon's website. The earnings release and other matters, which we discuss during today's call, contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ from our forward-looking statements based on factors and assumptions discussed in today's material and comments made during this call. Please refer to today's 8-K and Exelon's other SEC filings for discussions of risk factors and other factors, including the uncertainty surrounding the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic that may cause results to differ from management's projections, forecasts and expectations. Today's presentation also includes references to adjusted operating earnings and other non-GAAP measures. Please refer to the information contained in the appendix of our presentation and our earnings release for reconciliations between the non-GAAP measures and the nearest equivalent GAAP measure. I'll now turn the call over to Chris Crane, Exelon's CEO.
Christopher Crane:
Thanks, Dan, and thanks to everybody that's joined today. I'll first start off with the first quarter results. We had a strong quarter even with one of the warmest winters we've seen in a long time. The GAAP basis earned $0.60 per share, non-GAAP basis earned $0.87 per share. Joe is going to cover all those details in his remark. We had very solid operations throughout the first quarter. First quartile outage frequency and duration and record-setting nuclear refueling outages that I'll go into further as we continue. Hearings on working groups in Illinois on Clean Energy legislation, which is very critical right now, are meeting. The discussion is going on, we still haven't determined how the legislature will get back into session to resume work, but I think they all understand the priority of what needs to be done, not only for energy, but the capital budgets and other issues in Illinois. So we will continue to work on that through May. Our number one focus throughout this pandemic has been focusing on the safety and wellbeing of our employees. Our employees are on a mission. They know we are mission-critical in as many as possible of working remotely in supporting the critical infrastructure. We have approximately 17,000 people, employees and another 8,000 contractors working remotely and being able to execute on their tasks without any faults. So our frontline workers, the 17,000 frontline workers and the contractors that are maintaining the electric gas system in the power plants, we’re protecting with PPE, social distancing and pre-screening. We have not laid-off or furloughed or reduced hours or pay as a result of the pandemic. We've done a couple things. Employees diagnosed with COVID remain in pay status and no charge to sick leave. Overall, we've had 102 employees have been diagnosed with COVID plus 25 contractors. 82 of those total count have returned back to work. And so we are continuing to focus on the health and safety and the wellbeing. We give full pay to employees that are being quarantined. If they've become in contact through our tracing mechanisms that we're providing at all of our facilities, we quarantine them from the required amount of time, which allows us to keep not only them and their families safe, but also other employees. We also expanded access to backup care for dependence. So those frontline employees are supporting frontline employees that need to be in the workspace out in the field do not have to worry about their children out of school or their elderly parents. So that's another service we are providing to the employees to keep everybody focused on their own safety, the job, one, keeping the grid up and keeping the gas flowing, and keeping the power plants running. On Slide 4, you'll see a big part of what we do, what we've always been doing and what we will continue to do is support our customers and communities. As you know, and you heard all the utilities suspended disconnects, waived new late fees and we did reconnect or reach out to customers that had been disconnected since the March 1 and offered to reconnect those individuals who had been disconnected. And this gives us the ability for people that are laid off or people that are in financially challenged times to have one of the most critical social and needed energy sources that we can provide. We also, at the Exelon Foundation and our companies, have contributed over more than $5.9 million to relief organizations, ensuring food banks and other programs can be supported during this time of need, and we'll continue to focus on that. But at the core of everything, after safety in the community is our operational excellence, which is even more critical right now. Keeping the lights on in this crisis, keeping the hospitals with power, healthcare providers, grocery stores, medical food production facilities, you can see the list of the priorities that are there. And we have to, as a company and an organization continue to have reliable service, and that is strong at the utilities. We've had spring storms already this year. We restored more than 350,000 customers across the service territories in late March and early April. We've been able to do that and test ourselves on moving in resources and being able to adequately and safely shelter our employees, but allow them to work safely in the field to restore the power. On the power side, the nuclear group has completed seven of eight refueling outages, all better than planned. There's one refueling outage left to go that will be closing up later in this month, a major rewind on the Ganey Station. But if you look at the majority of the plants, it's been world class performance with the outages being performed between 16 and 18 days. If you look about these trying times, we've only had 25 employees that have – 29 including contractors, 25 employees have been infected with the COVID virus, and all but four have returned to work. So the work that we are doing with PPE, social distancing and allowing the critical resources to come in and operate the facilities that are needed, has been very critical to us. And as I mentioned earlier, we've expanded our care to those families that need extra resources. We've completed 26 maintenance outages at our power facilities readying for summer readiness, and all done without issues. So with that – that's the overall view of the operations and what we are focused on. And I'll turn it over to Joe to go through the financial.
Joseph Nigro:
Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone. Today, I will cover our first quarter results and our updated full-year guidance, including the financial impacts of COVID-19 and sensitivities for the remainder of the year. Starting with Slide 10. We earned $0.60 per share on a GAAP basis and $0.87 per share on a non-GAAP basis, which was slightly below the midpoint of our guidance range. We are particularly pleased with the results considering we had one of the warmest winters on record. Temperatures in the Mid-Atlantic were five to seven degrees higher than average in January through March, costing us $0.14 per share between Exelon Generation in our non-decoupled utilities. This quarter was the most impacted by weather of any quarter since the PHI merger. Exelon Utilities delivered $0.55 per share net of holding company expenses. Our non-decoupled utilities, PECO, Delmarva, Delaware and Atlantic City Electric were impacted by the warm winter weather. Across these territories, heating degree days were down 18% to 22% during the quarter. These impacts were partially offset by O&M timing across the utility. ExGen was also impacted by weather, earning $0.32 per share in the first quarter. The weather impact on gross margin and unplanned outages at Salem and FitzPatrick were offset by favorable O&M and nuclear decommissioning trust fund gains. Turning to Slide 11. Efforts to combat the spread of COVID-19, including stay-at-home orders in our states have caused dramatic changes in electricity demand and the national economic outlook. Taking into account the impact of COVID-19 unfavorable weather and lower ROEs at ComEd, we are revising our 2020 full-year guidance range from $3 to $3.30 per share to $2.80 to $3.10 per share. While typically we would not change guidance so early in the year, we want to provide a complete picture of where we stand at this point in the year and include our best estimates of the COVID-19 impacts. Let me start by saying that none of us has ever experienced anything like this before. The full impacts, including the duration and structural changes to the economy continue to evolve. In developing our revised guidance range, we looked at the load and economic data we were seeing in April, talk to our customers about their expectations for the year and considered different economic outlooks. In Q2, we expect commercial industrial load to decrease by 9% to 15% and residential load to increase by 4% to 7% depending on the region. Over the remainder of the year, we expect commercial, industrial unfavorability and residential favorability to diminish as the economy recovers. We've taken a cautious view of the world and you can see the assumptions on this slide that underpinned our new guidance range. We also recognize that the situation is changing rapidly, so we show a number of sensitivities to our guidance on the following pages so you can calibrate. I also want to come back to a point on actions we are taking. We challenged the organization against the current backdrop, identifying and pursuing initiatives across the company to lower our costs and improve our profitability. These provide $250 million of offset to other pressures which we reflect in this updated forecast. At the utilities, the $0.10 per share degradation from prior guidance can be split into a little over $0.05 for lower distribution ROEs at ComEd due to the drop in the 30-year treasury and a little less than $0.05 for the record mild first quarter weather. For COVID-19-related impacts, we expect to be able to offset the impact of lower loads at our non-decoupled utilities through cost reductions and the assumption that our regulators allow for timely recovering of expected higher bad debt. At ExGen, the $0.10 per share degradation reflects $0.05 of drag from the very mild Q1 weather and then $0.05 of COVID-19 impacts on load net of our cost and business initiatives. In addition to the O&M savings, we remained focused on cash at ExGen and have lowered CapEx by $125 million in 2020. We expect our earnings to be most impacted in the second quarter and have provided adjusted operating earnings guidance of $0.35 to $0.45 per share. Looking at the impact of COVID-19 on the utilities on Slide 12. As you can see, 70% of the Exelon Utilities are decoupled and the revenues are not subject to load fluctuations. The majority of volumes that are non-decoupled utilities, PECO, Atlantic City Electric and Delmarva, Delaware, are commercial industrial customers. In the table at the bottom right, we provide sensitivities for load by customer class and ComEd's distribution ROE for the remainder of the year. Each of our utilities is working with the regulators on COVID-19 cost and bad debt recovery mechanisms where we do not have them. Atlantic City Electric and ComEd have existing bad debt recovery mechanisms that result in no earnings impact with the cash being recovered in 2021 and 2022, respectively. Last month, the PSCs in Maryland and DC issue orders to authorize a regulatory asset that tracks prudent COVID-19-related costs incurred, which will allow for an assessment of recovery of incremental bad debt or atypical costs related to the pandemic. We are currently engaged with our commissions and stakeholders in Delaware, New Jersey and Pennsylvania regarding the potential recovery of costs. On Slide 27 of the appendix, we provide more detail on these efforts and current bad debt recovery mechanisms. Turning to Slide 13, the impacts of the Constellation business are like those of a non-decoupled utility. Constellation delivers around 210 terawatt hours annually of customer load through its wholesale and retail channels. In retail, Constellation’s 2019 customer breakdown was 90% commercial and industrial and of those customers, 70% of them were on fixed price contracts. When we look at volumes for the rest of the year and exclude index contracts, we have about 125 terawatt hours of normal annualized load exposed to COVID-related demand destruction. For the last nine months of the year, we assume Constellation load is down 6% in total with C&I down 9% and residential increasing 2%. I know there've been questions about how Constellation’s fixed price load contracts are impacted by COVID-19, so let me take a minute to explain. These fixed price contracts assume that the customer will use a certain amount of electricity and are impacted by fluctuations in customer usage in three ways. First, margin; second, commodity value; and third, through collection of fixed price charges and we are seeing the impacts of lower load on easing the current environment. When load is lower, Constellation loses the original sales margin on those unconsumed megawatt hours. Customer contracts can become in and out of the money over time. When a forward contract is signed, it assumes a price for electricity over the term of the contract. If the power procured for the customer is at a higher price than the current market and then the customer consumes less than forecasted, the generation must be sold into the open market at a lower price creating a gap in revenues. Finally, customers are billed for capacity and transmission charges that are charged by the ISO. Although these are typically fixed charges, for many customers we unitize them over the expected quantity of electricity and collect them on a dollars per megawatt hour basis. So when the customer consumes less, we under collect the fixed charge due to the ISO and are responsible for the shortfall. These fluctuations can be positive or negative to our bottom line. In a normal world where load fluctuations are primarily driven by weather, the risk is priced in and assumed in the contract. That assumption of risk could not have predicted the demand shocks and impacts that we are seeing due to the pandemic. In 2020, where C&I load is significantly displaced, we are seeing pressure on our gross margin, which is reflected in our guidance. We also expect the drop in profits to be limited to the period in time that the pandemic drives very wide differences in actual and assumed usage. Looking to the future, the Constellation business will return to profitability levels similar to those under normal conditions. And besides this highly unusual situation, having our load be primarily commercial and industrial customers remains key to our strategy. First, C&I customer usage patterns are aligned with our baseload generation portfolio, as C&I load is much more predictable and stable than residential load. In normal circumstances, C&I customer load is less exposed to weather fluctuations due to its higher load factors than residential customers. Second, C&I customers allow us to achieve scale that cannot be done with residential customers. Finally, although the gross margins maybe higher on residential customers, these margins do not account for the cost to acquire these customers, which are higher than C&I. You can see the impacts of weather and COVID-19 on our gross margin on Slide 14. In 2020, total gross margin is down $300 million. $100 million is due to Q1 weather, which can be pretty evenly split between lower volumes on our power and gas customer businesses. As a reminder, our gas business makes most of its margin in the winter. We’ve entered $200 million lower due to the impacts of COVID-19 on the balance of a year. During the quarter, we executed $100 million and $50 million in powered new business and non-powered new business respectively. In 2021, total gross margins down a $100 million primarily due to lower power prices in PJM in New York as well as some modest carry over of COVID-19-related drag on the load business. Since the end of the quarter, we have seen power prices rebound a levels above the start of the year, recovering most of the gross margin decline. We also executed $50 million of powered and non-powered new business during the quarter. We've remained behind our ratable hedging program in both 2020 and 2021. We ended the quarter slightly more behind ratable in 2020 then at year end at 8% to 11% due to the reduction in load offsetting hedges made during the quarter. 2021 is 2% to 5% behind ratable. We continue to see some upside in certain markets, but are not expecting a significant rebound in power prices or volatility. Slide 15 provides our 2020 projected sources and uses of cash. Our free cash flow is down $775 million from our last disclosure. The utilities cash flow accounts for $600 million of the degradation, largely due to timing of accounts receivable and bad debt, which we expect to reverse. ExGen's free cash flow is down $100 million reflecting the gross margin decline, but is mitigated by cost reductions and lower CapEx. Our liquidity position is strong. As you know, in March there were significant disruptions in the commercial paper markets and we temporarily drew down $1.5 billion on ExGen's $5.3 billion credit facility, which we repaid in early April. Given the uncertainty in that market in a $900 million [June] holding company refinancing, we issued $2 billion in April at corporate, which gives us additional flexibility. We are confident that we have ample liquidity to meet our needs. We also remain committed to strong investment grade credit ratings. Our FFO to debt is projected to fall to 18% and is below our 19% to 21% target, which reflects the combination of lower FFO and higher debt in 2020 due to the pressures I previously disclosed. We expect to see improvement in our FFO in 2021 as some of the cash timing issues that the utilities resolve next year and the impacts from COVID unwind. If they were to persist, we have levers we can take to enhance our credit profile. We talked to the rating agencies and their understanding of the current market environment. I'll now turn the call back to Chris.
Christopher Crane:
Thanks, Joe. The pandemic has brought unexpected challenges to our business in 2020. We have found ways to offset much of the financial impact of this unique challenge, but we're not done. We'll continue to look for ways. We can increase profitability and cash flow through the next three quarters. The impact on the COVID-19 does not change the fact that Exelon's fundamental business is strong and our strategy remains strong. Our utility rate base is growing over 7% annually for the next four years. In that time, we will add more than $13 billion in rate base, nearly equivalent to adding a utility the size of ComEd. Our utility operations are best-in-class first quartile – first quarter performance in reliability and customer satisfaction are continuing the solid performance for the rest of the year. Constellation is a premier integrator in their competitive platform. It's the most effective way to bring our generation to market while providing customizable solutions to fit the needs of customers. Our generation fleet is the cleanest in the nation. We are delivering one out of every nine megawatts of Clean Energy in a significant portion of the nation's Clean Energy. We continue to advocate for policies that will compensate our nuclear fleet for the essential role it plays in reducing carbon and air pollution and ensure their continued operations. If you look at our value proposition on Slide 18, I'll close with this. The value proposition is unchanged. We're focused on a growth of our utilities, targeting 7.3 rate base growth and a 6% to 8% EPS growth through 2023. We're confident in our rate base growth and the continued needs for these investments for the customers that we serve. But we're also mindful of the impact that the current 30-year treasury rate has on ComEd's distribution ROE and the impact on EPS in growth rates, if that rate was to stay this low. We will use the free cash flow from ExGen to support utility growth, paydown ExGen debt and support the external dividend. We will continue to optimize the value of our Genco business by seeking fair compensation for our zero-emitting generation fleet, closing uneconomic plants, monetizing assets and maximizing their value through Constellation. We will sustain a strong investment grade credit rating metrics throughout this period. Operator, we can now open it up for questions. Thank you.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Stephen Byrd from Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.
Stephen Byrd:
Hey, good morning. Hope you all are doing well?
Christopher Crane:
Hope you are too.
Stephen Byrd:
Thank you. I wanted to just first talk to – thanks for the thorough update and disclosure, very helpful. The Illinois legislative process, we're trying to follow this as closely as we can. I guess the Illinois Department of Public Health gave some guidance around sort of how the legislature might be able to – under what circumstance they could reconvene. Do you have a sense for sort of the process and sort of the potential for the legislative session to go through the summer, just given the formal ending date in May, obviously, does not coincide very well with the state’s plan to sort of reopen. But it does look like there's some potential that the legislature maybe able to meet if they meet sort of these health department guidelines. What is your sense in terms of the ability of the legislature to meet and do business?
Christopher Crane:
We have seen in other jurisdictions, legislative bodies be able to work through and convene. Kathleen, you want to talk specifically to the path forward here in Illinois?
Kathleen Barron:
Sure. Good morning, Steve. And then – as you know that stay-in-home order does extend through the end of May. So it is good – a good sign to see the Department of Public Health guidance to the legislature on how they might bring people back to the capital safely. That is good progress, but it just remains to be seen whether the leaders will decide to bring folks back to Springfield this session. Even if they cannot come back in May, they can come back in the summer by agreement of the Senate President and the Speaker. They could call a session after May 31 or the Governor himself could call a special session under the constitution. So we're glad to see that there has been guidance provided. There's just not yet any indication about when exactly they will come back.
Stephen Byrd:
Understood. A lot of uncertainties there. And then just I guess in a related matter in terms of operational decisions for your nuclear plants in Illinois, Chris, you had mentioned a lot of refueling has been completed and quite quickly as well. But are there any operational considerations you all would have to make, for example, if legislation is not passed in this, call it, some recession? Or do you have some flexibility, so that you can get the legislature a bit of time just given, obviously they have a lot on their plate to address in Illinois?
Christopher Crane:
Yes. It's tough to speculate with everything going on with the COVID, what the outcome of this legislative session or being able to go into an extended session. What we've stressed to all the stakeholders is PJM is committed to run the auctions, and their stated time was towards the end of the year and that could be extended. We haven't gotten any public statement that it was extended that I know of. So we're up against a clock. And once those auctions are run, we're highly confident that minimal or any of our clean megawatts will compare in that capacity auction, they’ll be replaced by fossil units, which is detrimental to the states goal of being 100% clean by 2030. So the clock is ticking. And I wouldn't speculate on timing of decisions right now. But we're just stressing the importance to the administration and the key legislative stakeholders and others about not only the importance for the nuclear megawatts, but the importance for the renewable megawatts. So they have been invested in the state of Illinois to continue to be able to operate with a profitability that's reasonable. So that's where we're at right now. We're continuing the dialogue. Kathleen, Bill Von Hoene are leading the conversations through the state legislators and the stakeholders, and we'll continue to push on that.
Stephen Byrd:
Very good. I'll let others ask questions. Thanks.
Christopher Crane:
Yes.
Operator:
Next question comes from the line of Steve Fleishman from Wolfe Research, LLC. Your line is now open.
Steven Fleishman:
Yes. Hi, good morning.
Christopher Crane:
Hi, Steve.
Steven Fleishman:
Hey Chris, I wanted to – I guess just get a little more color on the comments on the 6% to 8% utility growth rate. And you mentioned you'd be mindful, I think, you said, of the Illinois ROE and just – can you maybe give a little more color on how to think about – it's obvious what you're embedding now for 2020. But how about for the kind of broader growth rate and if rates don't get better, are you still within that range? Or just what you've been assuming in there?
Christopher Crane:
Yes. We have continued to work our five-year plan. I think we report out in some places a four-year plan, another is a five-year plan, but we're continuing on our long range plan and it has helped us significantly in customer satisfaction and reliability and it's also allowed us to maintain a cash flow and profitability while doing so, in the last three rate cases, we actually gave a rate reduction. So as you can imagine, as you would expect, we look at multiple scenarios. And if the economy continues to degrade, impact on customers, whatever it could be is out in the future. The plans can be adjusted. But at this time, we don't plan on adjusting. We plan on continuing to do the much needed reliability and efficiency modifications and prepare the system for the onset of much more distributed and renewable energy coming on. It won't be able to happen if we don't make the investments and facilitate it. If we see a day that we're not getting that return or don't see a path to go back. I mean, we haven't seen that day and we haven't seen that in the near future. So we're continuing on with the investment and watching the treasuries and watching the recovery mechanisms.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay. So – but just to clarify the – if we're in these kind of lower rate environment, I don't know exactly where the whole forward curve of 30-year is? You're still expected to be within the 6% to 8% range?
Christopher Crane:
Yes. Go ahead Joe.
Joseph Nigro:
We're not changing the target of the 6% to 8%. As Chris said, we're moving forward with the investment that we plan to make. We update that target once a year. We also show you sensitivity related to the ComEd ROEs. Obviously they've dropped some since the first of the year has an impact. We also give you earnings bands that we gave you out through 2023 and we're still well within the bands that we gave you and we'll continue to look for ways to challenge ourselves in this regard.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay. Thanks, Joe.
Christopher Crane:
At this point, it would be very short. It would be very shortsighted for us to start, stop, start, stop depending on an interest rate. The most efficient way is to get the long-term investments prudently done and support the customer's needs.
Steven Fleishman:
Got it. I see what you're saying. So you're saying, Chris, that you're not going to hold back on investment in the state because of the temporary rates being lower. Got it, okay. Just one other question, yes. One other question just for – I guess for Joe, you mentioned levers on your credit. You have levers on your credit profile. If I guess things stay weaker there, could you just give some color on what those levers are?
Joseph Nigro:
Steve, I think we've got a track record of proving that we continue to challenge ourselves on our cost structure. I mean, we're reducing our costs by $250 million this year with actions we've taken and we're going to continue to challenge ourselves in the future in that regard. We've been clear that we have some on economic power plants and we're working hard to rectify that. We would have to address that. Those would be two big levers that we would have to address.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay. Thank you.
Christopher Crane:
Thanks.
Operator:
Next question comes from the line of Shar Pourreza from Guggenheim. Your line is now open.
Shar Pourreza:
Hey. Good morning, guys.
Christopher Crane:
Hey, Shar.
Shar Pourreza:
So a couple of questions here. Realize with Illinois, there is significant uncertainty over 2022 with PJM, but can you speak a little bit at a high level to how gross margin is developing? Maybe just directionally ignoring the upside or downside from capacity reform. And I realize this is secondary at this point, everything going on, but do you still think something can get done in Illinois at the veto session?
Christopher Crane:
We're still working. We still have significant support on what we have to do. Where it gets done, we would hope that it would get done before the end of the session. That's what we've stressed to give the IPA time to be able to develop their own auction process, that will allow us to breakaway on capacity needs for the state of Illinois from PJM. As I said earlier, it's a very tight timeframe. If they were able to come in, in a summer session and we had assurances, they were going to address this in a summer session under the requirements by the Illinois Health, we would continue to work with them on that. But there's a lot of things that have to get done in Springfield, but they also realize that this is a very important issue to address and along with the state budget in some other large issues. So we know there's a will to get to work. It's just the way to get to work and how fast we can get this done.
Shar Pourreza:
Got it. And then just what kind of C&I attrition are you guys expecting in your assumptions? And sort of how do we sort of think about contemplation more broadly as we look at 2021 and beyond? And does the current situation present any strategic opportunities in your view, maybe on the retail side? Or does sort of some of the reprieves we've been seeing at the state level, on the retail side push off any potential acquisition opportunities as you guys look to tighten up that natural hedge?
Christopher Crane:
Jim, do you want to – Jim McHugh, do you want to cover that one?
James McHugh:
Sure, absolutely. I'll answer kind of two parts. I think what we expect from the low decreases we're seeing now is as the states reopen and as things recover, we're seeing about a 15% reduction in that C&I on average in these front-near months. By the end of the year, as Joe mentioned on the call that's more than a probably 4% to 6% range and coming back in through mid next year. So from a load perspective, it's temporary and I think we expect that to bounce back. I think from a strategic perspective, a couple of things, we definitely for acquisition space, we'll continue to look for any value of books that comes to the market. There could be some suppliers that would need to look over their books. We've talked about our strategy before. We'll stay the same, which is we would be looking to buy things, buy books of business that we could easily fit into our platform. We've developed, I think, a world-class platform over the years that we can integrate easily. And we've shown that before when we bought books of business. And then lastly, I think strategically it's just product development where we'll look to either continue to refine the products we sell now and look for demand charges that could be either faster or more associated with the customers fixed charges and look for other products that we can develop to give them access to data analysis and sustainability targets that they have.
Shar Pourreza:
Got it. And just lastly, Joe, I know you obviously highlighted that the rating agencies understand how transient in nature the cash flow dip is in 2020? Can you just remind us just from a perpetual ongoing perspective, how to think about the $250 million cost savings and the ExGen CapEx reductions for our modeling perspective?
Joseph Nigro:
Yes. I would say right now most of the $250 million we're viewing as a one-time item. And some of it's being driven by the situation when you think about with things like reducing contractor spend, reducing non-critical IT spend, when you look at reductions in travel spending, consulting spend, holding vacancy rates in our organization, all of those things are contributing to the reduction in O&M. I will say though, when we go through our planning process, which begins here late in the second quarter and through the end of the year, we've had a track record of continuing to challenge ourselves and find ways to reduce costs. And given the environment we're in and some of the things, quite frankly, we've learned we maybe able to carryover some of these cost savings as we look at future periods. We just haven't made a determination on that yet.
Shar Pourreza:
Terrific. Thanks guys. I'll pass it to someone else. Thank you.
Christopher Crane:
Operator, next caller please.
Operator:
Next question comes from the line of James Thalacker from BMO Capital Markets. Your line is now open.
Christopher Crane:
James, you there?
James Thalacker:
Can you guys hear me?
Christopher Crane:
Yes, we can now.
James Thalacker:
Okay, thank you. This is obviously a little bit more of a granular question, but just looking on Slide 14, there was a $100 million, I guess change from December in the non-powered new business to go. I was just wondering if you guys could talk a little bit about what's exactly in that bucket.
Joseph Nigro:
Yes. The $100 million non-powered new business to go is attributed partially to execution and partially, as I said in my prepared remarks in Q1. We had impact both on powered and non-powered related to weather and we took a reduction for the balance of the year. That's all embedded in a total $300 million that you see in the gross margin change in the hedge disclosure.
James Thalacker:
Okay. I was just wondering, was it a specific product that you guys are selling that where you saw the weather impact? Or just trying to understand…
Joseph Nigro:
What's embedded in that non-powered to go, the bulk of it is our – big piece of it is our gas business. And since that's so seasonal and related to the winter, you see the impact there.
James Thalacker:
Got it. So it was just retail gas. Okay. Perfect. Thank you very, very much.
Operator:
Next question comes from the line of Durgesh Chopra from Evercore. Your line is now open.
Durgesh Chopra:
Thanks for taking my question. I just have a quick clarification question. You answered most of the things I had. In terms of just states or territories where you don't have riders on COVID costs like bad debt, just want to clarify that you’re assuming recovery of those in the future, right? So the $250 million kind of targeted cost reductions don't cover that.
Calvin Butler:
No, they don't. This is Calvin. In all of our jurisdictions where we are not – for our bad debt and we do not have a rider, we are working in partnership with the commissions to sit back and establish regulatory assets. As Chris alluded to in his opening comments, Maryland and DC, both of their commissions unanimously passed regulation allowing the utilities to set up regulatory assets and also set aside what identify prudently incurred COVID-related costs. And we will operate under the same standard that were used to operating on, showing that it's just and reasonable. We are working with the Pennsylvania commission and Delaware commission and we hope to have rulings from them in the next week to 10 days to drive that. So at the end of this, all of our jurisdictions, we believe will be operating under a regulatory asset to show what those are bad debt costs and the COVID-related costs are.
Durgesh Chopra:
Got it. Perfect. That's it for me guys. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith of Bank of America. Your line is now open.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey. Good morning, team. Hope you all are well.
Christopher Crane:
We are doing good. Hope the same for you.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Excellent. Thank you. I wanted to follow-up, perhaps clean up a little bit on some of the questions thus far. First, with respect to the earnings CAGR and how you're thinking about that. But for the oscillation in the 30-year treasury, anything else shifting in your outlook? Obviously, the slide is slightly different here, so I just want to make sure we're not missing anything, coming back to Steve's question.
Joseph Nigro:
Julien, there's nothing else shifting that CAGR other than the 30-year treasury.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Okay. Thanks. Glad we've set that one aside. Separately, if I can keep here on the Constellation business and ExGen overall, when you think about the sensitivities to further – you saw a faster or slower improvement here. Can you give us a little bit of a sense, and I mean that more in the context of C&I sales degradation improvement as well as some of the portfolio optimization of volatility dynamics here as well. And how that could play out in 2020 as well as what are you reflecting in 2021, just to be extra clear about that.
Christopher Crane:
Jim, do you want to cover that? I'm not sure we've covered 2021 yet, but we can cover 2020.
James McHugh:
Sure. Glad to do it. Thanks, Julien. The way we think about the balance of this year, and then I'll talk about 2021. You see the sensitivity on the slide that for every 1% change in C&I load, you see about a $15 million net income impact and resi is about a $7 million impact. We've assumed, as we said, a slow return through the balance of this year and into next year. So what the 1% sensitivity at least allow you to do is say, well, if across over those months, it moves up or down 1%, that's the number you would expect. I think as far as the optimization activity with this – with these gross margin estimates, we've given you, we see line of sight to being able to hit our normal optimization activity in the remainder of the new business to-go bucket. So we don't expect too much impact there. We basically realign these targets now with these adjustments to have good line of sight to balance of the year. For 2021, we've included about $50 million of impact for COVID and that is more a little bit of an impact on the load trickling into the year, but it also represents the fact that some of the new business activity to sign customers up has slowed down just because of the status of work that people are in. We've been tracking that and we feel like that's a really good estimate right now and we've been able to maintain a pretty good signing up of new customers. A little bit of dip in the win and renewable rates for the month of April. As we get granular on really being able to understand which those are impacted by how much, those win rates and renew rates bounce back up to, I think more on normal levels and the $50 million we've included is a good estimate.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Okay. Excellent. If I can just clarify your prior response very briefly. With respect to what the date as of for the 30-year treasury that you are assuming in that EPS CAGR, I just want to be extra clear. Again, I don't know if you have a specific date or curve that you're using, you want to establish that.
Joseph Nigro:
Yes. 3/31 is the date we're using, the end of the first quarter.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
End of the first quarter for the 30-year treasury, so.
Joseph Nigro:
Yes.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Okay. Excellent. Thank you.
Operator:
There are no further questions at this time. Mr. Chris Crane, do you have any closing remarks?
Christopher Crane:
Yes. No, thank you all for joining the call. I want to thank our employees for their commitment and dedication in these unprecedented times. And I hope that all of you and your families are safe and healthy. And with that, I will close out the call. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Hello, and welcome to today's webcast. My name is Tamara, and I will be your event specialist today. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. Please note that today's webcast is being recorded. During the presentation, we will have a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] It is now my pleasure to turn today's phone over to Dan Eggers, Senior Vice President of Corporate Finance. The floor is yours.
Dan Eggers:
Thank you. Good morning, Tamara. Good morning, everyone and thank you for joining our Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. Leading the call today are Chris Crane, Exelon's President and Chief Executive Officer and Joe Nigro, Exelon's Chief Financial Officer. They're joined by other members of Exelon's senior management team, who'll be available to answer your questions following our prepared remarks. We issued our earnings release this morning along with the presentation, all of which can be found in the Investor Relations section of Exelon's website. The earnings release and other matters, which we discuss during today's call contains forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ from our forward-looking statements based on factors and assumptions discussed in today's material and comments made during this call. Please refer to today's 8-K and Exelon's other SEC filings for discussions of risk factors and factors that may cause results to differ from management's projections forecasts and expectations. Today's presentation also includes references to adjusted operating earnings and other non-GAAP measures. Please refer to the information contained in the appendix of our presentation and our earnings release for reconciliations between the non-GAAP measures and the nearest equivalent GAAP measure. I'll now turn the call over to Chris Crane, Exelon's CEO.
Chris Crane:
Thank you Dan, and good morning everyone. Thank you for joining us for our 2019 fourth quarter earnings call. I'm going to start on slide 5. On almost all accounts, we had a very good 2019. Exelon Utilities and Generation remains focused on delivering for our customers and their communities. ComEd had its best performance ever. The nuclear fleet had its best capacity factor and we delivered financially. As you can read, the full year GAAP earnings were $3.01 per share, and the non-GAAP earnings were $3.22 per share above our revised guidance range and midpoint of our original guidance range. Joe will walk you through the financial details later in the call. I want to address the operational details as we go forward. Last year, Exelon Utilities invested $5.5 billion in capital and $150 million – which is $150 million more than originally planned. These investments were primarily in infrastructure and technology to provide a premier customer experience, improve reliability and resiliency, modernization of our gas system resulting in best-ever customer satisfaction at each of our utilities. We had a productive year on the regulatory front. Pepco D.C. filed its first multiyear rate case and Maryland's PSC is moving forward with the multiyear rate plans. We received a constructive settlement at BGE and at ACE. PECO's transmission formula was approved by FERC, and ComEd's formula rate provided the third-rate decrease in five years helping to keep the average residential customer bill flat from where it was a decade ago. On the policy front, the United States Supreme Court upheld the Illinois and New York ZEC programs. New York Supreme Court – Superior Court affirmed the ZEC program and New Jersey implemented their ZEC program in the spring. Governor Wolf in Pennsylvania announced plans for Pennsylvania to join RGGI, and the Pennsylvania State Senate passed legislation setting a goal for electric vehicles and deployment. FERC approved PJM's fast-start reforms. PJM filed its proposal to reform the reserve market and scarcity rules. We made our commitment to grow the dividend by 5% annually through 2020 with the Board raising the annual dividend to $1.53 per share in January. We're good partners also with the communities we serve. Our employees volunteered a record-breaking 251,000 hours in 2019, that’s 11,000 more than in 2018. During National Volunteer Week, we sponsored 452 events in 16 states and 128 cities with 5,400 employees which is another record. In addition, Exelon donated nearly $52 million to charities and organizations throughout our footprint. We are committed to providing a diverse and inclusive environment for our nearly 33,000 employees. We were once again named Best Company for Diversity by Forbes, DiversityInc, and the Human Rights Campaign. Our total diversity supplier spend exceeded $2 billion for the third straight year, accounting for 27% of our overall supplier spend. Exelon companies continue to prioritize partnerships with local-based diverse businesses by offering development programs. We also continue to be recognized for our environmental stewardship and were named to the Dow Jones Sustainability Index for the 14th year in a row. We are focused on operating at world-class levels delivering on our strategy in supporting clean energy policies in their state. The hard work and the commitment of our employees to provide safe, reliable power, and natural gas to our customers led way to the greatest performance we had in 2019. We delivered on our commitments to you our shareholders, but also our employees and our customers and our communities. However, this year was not -- last year was not without challenges including subpoenas we received from the U.S. Attorney's Office in Northern Illinois. As we said before, we are limited in what we can share about the investigation. However, I want to reiterate that we are fully cooperating with the U.S. Attorney's Office and taking the situation very seriously. The Board appointed a special committee to provide oversight of the investigation led by outside counsels to determine if any changes are needed to ensure that going forward we operate at the highest possible standards. At the end of [Technical Difficulty] our commitments for 2020. Turning to slide 6, we're committed to operating our utilities at the highest levels for our customers. Since 2016, we have deployed nearly $22 billion across the utilities and plan to invest $26 billion over the next four years. These investments enhance reliability, resiliency, and modernize our electric and gas systems. We've been able to make these needed improvements while keeping the boards -- the bills affordable. The rates in all our major cities; Baltimore, Chicago, Philadelphia, and Washington are 13% to 18% below the average for the largest U.S. cities, and 2% to 7% below the national average. These investments are producing tangible benefits for our customers. Customer satisfaction is the highest level it's ever been at each one of our utilities, reflecting a strong system performance that has come from our investments. Frequency of outages has decreased significantly, down near 50% at ComEd and 30% at PHI. Outage duration has also decreased by 52% and 38% at ComEd and BGE respectively. 2019 was the best reliability performance for ComEd and the second best for BGE. On the gas side, PECO and BGE have replaced more than 200 miles of cast iron and bare steel mains and nearly 30,000 metallic gas services in 2018. These investments will help our customers' current and future needs while reducing gas leaks and greenhouse house gas emissions. Moving to slide 7, our states are focused on ensuring the electric and the gas systems are ready to meet the changing customer needs, more reliable and more resilient and are prepared for renewables in electric vehicles and are ready to meet the challenges of climate change. We are working with each state to get the right mechanisms in place to be able to make these needed investments. Our states are providing support through a range of regulatory tools, including alternate rate making such as formula rates and multiyear rate plans as well as tracker mechanisms for reliability and gas infrastructure programs. Turning to Slide 8, FERC's recent order on PJM capacity. The Governors in Illinois, Maryland, and New Jersey are firmly committed to having their electricity be supplied by 100% clean. These states are leading the way to a clean energy economy and we share that goal, and we'll work with them to achieve it. Unfortunately, there is a clear conflict between clean energy goals of our states and our customers on one side and the resource decisions being made by PJM and FERC on the other. Unless states take action to protect their clean energy programs, FERC's December order on the PJM Minimum Offer Price Rule or MOPR will result in clean resources supported by the states being pushed out of the capacity market only to be replaced by carbon-based generation. This would result in billions of dollars of additional costs for customers and threaten the progress being made in retaining and expanding our clean energy. Our states as well as many others oppose FERC's MOPR decision and are evaluating what actions may be necessary in response. We are working with policymakers and stakeholders to protect the clean energy programs from the negative impact of FERC's MOPR decision and enable the transition to 100% clean. On Slide 9, we show our operating performance for the year. Each utility continues to have outstanding customer operations, all achieved first quartile in performance and service level and abandon rate. And I mentioned, we had our best ever scores on customer satisfaction index with BGE ComEd and PECO achieving top decile and PHI's performance significantly improved in the last three years missing first quartile by 0.01 points. Reliability performance was mixed this year due to a very active minor storm season throughout the Mid-Atlantic. For instance, PHI had 32 minor storms for 2019 compared to eight in 2018. Minor storms are not excluded from these calculations. However, ComEd achieved top quartile in both outage frequency and duration and BGE achieved top quartile on outage duration. Turning to generation on Slide 10, our fleet -- generation fleet performed one of its best years ever, very good in 2019 providing a significant portion of the country's clean energy. Exelon generates 12% or one out of every nine clean megawatts in the United States. Our best-in-class nuclear fleet operated very well last year. Our capacity factor was 95.7% our highest ever. We generated 155 million megawatt hours, avoiding 81 million metric tons of greenhouse gas emission in 2019. Our average refueling outage duration was 21 days, matching the record set in 2018 and 18 -- 14 days better than the industry average. Exelon Power's gas and hydro dispatch matched 97.9% and wind and energy capture at 96.3% were better than planned. Our Constellation business remains the industry leader. A vast majority of our retail businesses is with C&I customers where we have the largest retail platform with 25% market share delivering 154 terawatt-hours of electricity and 67 terawatt-hours more than our nearest competitor. Our retail operating metrics remain strong; 79% customer renewal rates, average customer duration of more than six years, and power contract terms of 23 months on average. We continue to see stable unit margins with our power customers. Our focus is on cost and helping support operating margins. Constellation's strength lies in its durable relationship with our customers. We work with our customers to provide them solutions to meet their energy needs while also reaching their environmental and sustainability goals. We provide our customers with much more than just a commodity. And now I'll turn the call over to Joe to review the financials.
Joe Nigro:
Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone. Today I will cover our 2019 results, annual updates to our financial disclosures, and 2020 guidance. Starting with slide 11, we had another strong year. For the fourth quarter we earned $0.79 per share on a GAAP basis and $0.83 per share on a non-GAAP basis. For the full year we earned $3.01 per share on a GAAP basis and $3.22 per share on a non-GAAP basis, which is above our revised full guidance -- full year guidance of $3.05 to $3.20 per share and $0.07 per share above our original mid-point. Exelon Utilities delivered a combined $1.91 per share net of holding company expenses. Utility earnings were higher relative to original guidance, due to favorable O&M, including the lack of major storms, and favorable weather at PECO and BG&E, as well as higher distribution revenues of the PG&E. These were partially offset by the impact of lower treasury rates, on ComEd's ROE. ExGen earned $1.31 per share, exceeding its guidance range of $1.20 to $1.30 per share. ExGen's outperformance was primarily due to favorable O&M, including incremental nuclear insurance distributions, and recognition in the fourth quarter of the research and development or R&D tax benefit, for the years 2010 through 2018 tax years. We expected to record this benefit, but it was more favorable than we had planned. This favorability was offset by the unplanned outages at Salem, Handley Station and a contracted asset during the year. Overall, we delivered well on our financial commitments. Moving to slide 12, the consolidated PHI utilities earned a 9.2% ROE for the trailing 12 months, up 90 basis points from year-end 2018. The improvement is driven by the constructive distribution rate cases, across the jurisdictions as well as incremental transmission revenue and a decrease in O&M, partially offset by an increase in depreciation. Earned ROEs for the legacy Exelon Utilities were above 10%, slightly improving from year-end 2018. Looking at our utility returns on a consolidated basis, we earned a 10% ROE for the trailing 12 months, which compares to last year's 9.6%. As a reminder, we targeted 9% to 10% consolidated ROE at our utilities. And expect that we will move around in that band over the course of time. And we remain focused on earning fair returns across all of our utilities. On slide 13 we rolled forward our outlook for utility CapEx and rate base, covering 2020 to 2023. This year we expect to invest nearly $6.5 billion, in our utilities and a total of $26 billion, over the next four years. These investments are improving our system reliability, service experience for our utility customers, and preparing us for the future. Our capital forecast reflects identified and approved projects. As we move through time, we identify more investment needs across the system that will provide additional benefits to our customers and communities. Since the initial disclosures for the 2018 to 2022 period, we have identified nearly $4.9 billion in additional investments, including an additional $1.9 billion, since last year's fourth quarter call. As Chris mentioned, these investments benefit our customers, by helping to drive our operational excellence, overall customer satisfaction, and meet state resiliency and environmental priorities. Since the PHI merger in 2016, we have added more than $9 billion in rate base across the utilities. Over the next four years, we will grow our rate base 7.3% annually to $54.2 billion, adding $13 billion to rate base by 2023 or the equivalent of adding a utility between the size of PHI and ComEd, without paying a premium, issuing equity or obtaining merger approvals. As a reminder, 65% of our rate base growth is covered under either formula rates or mechanisms such as capital trackers. These support our ability to efficiently invest in our system while also allowing us to earn a fair and timely return on our capital. Where we do not have these mechanisms, we will continue to work with stakeholders to establish more timely recovery tools. Chris touched on this earlier, but I want to remind you all that we have been able to make these important investments while maintaining lower customer rates compared to other large urban areas. When we look at our projected residential bills, we continue to see bill inflation around/or below the rate of inflation even as we make these important investments. In the appendix, we provide a more detailed breakdown of the capital and rate base outlook for each utility starting on slide 23. Turning to slide 14. We continue to forecast strong utility less holding company, EPS growth of 6% to 8%. When you consider the drop in the 30-year treasury that lowered our EPS outlook for ComEd by roughly a nickel compared to what we had showed you last year, we've been more than able to offset in the back end of our plan through the increased CapEx program across the utilities for the benefit of our customers, which brings us to the durability of our industry leading earnings growth, which reflects the combination of strong rate base growth to support system needs for a more digital economy and environmental goals, successful cost management and a focus on customer bill affordability. Before discussing our gross margin update on slide 15, I want to remind you that given the lack of clarity around the outcome of legislation in Illinois and the fact that PJM has not yet held a capacity auction for the 2022, 2023 delivery year, we will not be providing any ExGen disclosures beyond 2021. So turning to the table, there is no change in total gross margin in 2020 or 2021 from our last disclosure. Open gross margin declined by $400 million and $100 million in 2020 and 2021, respectively due to declining power prices across most regions offset by our hedges. During the quarter, we executed $50 million of power new business in 2020. We remain slightly behind our ratable hedging program in all years. We ended the year 6% to 9% behind in 2020 and 3% to 6% behind in 2021 when taking cross-commodity hedges into account. We continue to see some upside in certain markets, but are not expecting a significant rebound in power prices or volatility. Slide 16 shows our O&M and capital outlook at generation for 2020 and 2021. Compared to our previous disclosure on our fourth quarter call, last year our O&M is down in each year. The updated forecast reflects O&M cuts we announced on last quarter call, pension benefits and nuclear savings. The return on our pension investments in 2019 significantly exceeded our planned returns, but this favorability was partially offset by the drop in the discount rate. Taking both into account our pension expense it's about flat to plan in 2020 and is down by approximately $25 million in 2021. Turning to CapEx. We expect lower cash outlays than we projected last year. We have reduced the growth capital in 2020 and 2021 given the focus of recycling ExGen cash and the increased need for equity investments at the utilities given their growing capital needs. Nuclear fuel costs are also lower in 2020 and higher in 2021 versus last year's disclosure, primarily due to a shift in deliveries. Overall, we continue to see a constructive outlook for the nuclear fuel costs looking out over our planning horizon. We will continue to look for ways to be more efficient in how we work and spend to improve the cash flow profile of ExGen while maintaining the safety and reliability of our fleet. Moving to slide 17. We remain committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet and our investment grade credit ratings. Our consolidated corporate credit metrics are consisting with our targeted ranges and above S&P thresholds. Looking at ExGen, we are well ahead of our debt-to-EBITDA target for 3.0 times. For 2020, we expect to be at 2.4 times debt to EBITDA and 1.9 times debt to EBITDA when excluding non-recourse debt. This year we will be active in the capital markets, as we support our utility rate base growth. At ExGen, we plan to retire $1.5 billion of long-term debt this year, including the $1 billion maturity we paid off in January. As a reminder, this in addition to the $600 million of long-term debt retired in October of 2019. Finally, I will conclude with our 2020 earnings guidance on Slide 18. We have provided 2020 adjusted earnings guidance of $3 to $3.30 per share. Growth in utility earnings is primarily driven by the continued increase in rate base, as we deploy capital for the benefit of our customers as well as carry through from the 2019 rate cases. We will see offsets from lower treasuries on ComEd's earned ROEs, higher depreciation and some regulatory timing drags between investment and rate cases most notably at PECO. Our consolidated range in 2020 for utilities less HoldCo is $1.80 a share to $2.10 per share. The decline in earned ExGen's earnings is a combination of lower realized energy prices and capacity revenues, more planned nuclear outage days and the absence of nuclear decommissioning trust gains. These are partially offset by a full year of ZEC revenues in New Jersey and increased ZEC revenues in New York. We expect first quarter operating earnings to be in the range of $0.85 per share to $0.95 per share. More detail on the year-over-year drivers by operating company can be found in the appendix starting on Slide 55. With that, I will now turn the call back to Chris for his closing remarks.
Chris Crane:
Thanks Joe. Turning to Slide 19, I want to discuss our key focus areas for 2020. We will continue to deliver operational excellence across our businesses, focusing on modernizing the grid and improving the customer experience at our utilities, while staying focused on safety and reliability. We will meet or exceed our financial commitments delivering earnings within the range and maintain our investment-grade credit ratings, as Joe mentioned. At the utilities, we will prudently and effectively deploy $6.5 billion of capital to benefit our customers and help meet the needs -- our states' energy policy goals and we will work with our regulators to ensure timely recovery on these investments. We will support the enactment of state and federal clean energy policies with major initiatives in-flight in several states. We will -- and we will partner and ally with the communities we serve. This is key to who we are. Slide 20. I will close on Exelon's value proposition, which highlights our strategy and commitment to shareholders. We will continue our focus on growing our utilities targeting 7.3% rate base growth and 6% to 8% earnings growth through 2023 rolling forward another year at this above-group trajectory. We will use free cash flow from ExGen to support utility growth, pay down debt and support the external dividend. We will continue to optimize the value of our Genco business by seeking fair compensation for our zero-emitting generating fleet, closing uneconomic plants and monetizing assets as we see value is there, while maximizing their value through generation to load matching strategy at Constellation. We will sustain growth investment-grade metrics -- excuse me, strong investment-grade metrics and we will grow our dividend at 5% through 2020. The strategy underpinning this value proposition is effective in providing tangible benefits to our shareholders. We remain committed to optimizing the value of our business and earning your ongoing support to Exelon. Operator, we can now open the call to questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Your first response is from Greg Gordon with Evercore.
Greg Gordon:
Thanks. Good morning. Congratulations on a great year and the outlook is encouraging. A couple of questions. The utility growth outlook has obviously improved as we go out through time, despite the headwind from ComEd. The CapEx is up significantly, but the rate base growth numbers look like they're not moving as much in tandem. I skimmed through the whole deck. I understand, you've also moved capital around the different jurisdictions as well, but can you just comment on sort of that modest level of dissonance between CapEx being up and rate base growth looking like it's not up as much?
Joe Nigro:
Yes, Greg. Good morning. It's Joe. Yes. The issue isn't solely that the incremental CapEx that we mentioned of approximately $2 billion isn't falling to rate base. It's about all of the CapEx and what we get into is the timing of when these projects go in service. So, we've updated some assumptions as it relates to the schedule of when the projects are finished and then they go into service. In addition to that, we could have changes in things like depreciation that would also impact that. So, it's really just a movement of when we see project timing and other things.
Greg Gordon:
So AFUDC is not -- or CWIP and AFUDC are not contemplated in those calculations then?
Joe Nigro:
No. They're not contemplated in that calculation.
Greg Gordon:
Okay. That explains it. Thanks. In terms of the cash flow profile, I know that you haven't given us an update because we do have obviously significant uncertainty with regard to ExGen and Illinois. But as you look at most scenarios there, whether it's getting some sort of deserved incremental revenue for the clean attribute to your plants or having to use self-help to rectify the earnings issues, under most of those scenarios do you still see the utility being funded by the cash flow of the corporation without needing equity through this forecast period?
Joe Nigro:
Yes. Greg, so the first thing I would say is, based on the current plan, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we don't incorporate any equity issuance in the plan. And going forward, we can meet the funding needs and maintain the investment-grade credit metrics under most scenarios that we look at, because we do look at this under a range of different possibilities.
Greg Gordon:
Okay. Two more questions and they're quick. One, since the Q -- since the EEI deck, where you usually give us your update on where you think O&M and capital are driving it at ExGen, things have improved on the margin. Can you comment on how you've pulled forward some of the O&M and CapEx trajectory?
Joe Nigro:
Yes. I think the big thing is when you look at the improvement in ExGen earnings, it's really driven by four variables. As you could see in 2020 and 2021, the gross margin hasn't changed, right? But what has changed is we announced the O&M reductions on the third quarter call, that’s been a benefit. Lower property taxes has been a benefit at ExGen. Lower depreciation is also a benefit. And then, finally, we do have some lower interest expense, when you think about the retirement of debt. So those four variables have driven improvement to the ExGen earnings.
Greg Gordon:
Okay. Final question, Chris. The time flies. It seems like yesterday since you made the commitment to grow the dividend 5% through 2020, and here we are in 2020 and you've made good on that commitment. At what point do you go back to the Board with a recommendation on the dividend policy post 2020?
Chris Crane:
So I would anticipate, the discussions with the Board will be in the fall time frame, when we have further clarity on what the future looks like. If we are able to enact some of the policies and programs in the states we're working on, and it provides us with certainty that we can provide certainty to the Board that maintaining the health of the balance sheet while creating shareholder value, we should have a better picture at that time. So, I would expect us talking to you around year-end time frame about that.
Greg Gordon:
Thank you, Chris. Take care, guys.
Chris Crane:
Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. Your next response is from Stephen Byrd with Morgan Stanley.
Stephen Byrd:
Hi. Good morning.
Chris Crane:
Good morning
Stephen Byrd:
I had a couple of broader policy questions. We've certainly been seeing quite a bit of evidence of -- especially, in the PJM states, a movement away from fossil fuels. And on the merchant side, I think I understand some of the moving parts there, but on the regulated utility side, what is your sense of the degree to which states are now pushing to move away from fossil fuels? And how do you think broadly about pivoting and sort of reacting to that shift at the utility side of your business?
Chris Crane:
So as you know Stephen, our utilities do not have any generation and are restricted from having generation in the states that we serve. What you see in our planning years that you're looking at for the utilities, they incorporate what we believe needs to be done to support the states' needs which calls for more robust distribution system investments to allow two way energy flows, which is going to require transmission buildout to take care of importing the wind [ph] from the pockets of the service areas that we serve. And that's what's anticipated right now in the capital plan that we have in front of you. We have got to keep up with the state's policies, legislative agendas, or whatever is going to change the system so our customers can benefit from these policies that the states are enacting.
Stephen Byrd:
Understood. And then just shifting over to the PJM capacity process, I wanted to just get your latest thinking on next steps procedurally. I'm thinking about sort of the broader process under which PJM would refine their approach and the timing under which they have an auction. I guess I'm thinking also about the possibility of pretty significant litigation around the -- whatever comes out of the PJM and the FERC process here. How do you see that unfolding? Just wanted to get your latest thoughts there.
Kathleen Barron:
Hi, Stephen, it's Kathleen Barron. I can take that question. I'll start with auction timing. As you know there's a large group of stakeholders including clean energy advocates, consumer advocates, renewable developers and most importantly the states who have asked PJM to take their time in scheduling the next auction. There's just been such a fundamental change in policy here that states need time to evaluate what the impact is on their customers and to design appropriate policies to protect their customers from the significant impact of this new policy on customer bills. So we of course agree with that perspective and are going to continue to urge PJM when they're developing their next filing effort which as you know is in March to propose an auction timing schedule that takes into account the states' needs. And in terms of litigation, you're right that there have been a number of requests for rehearing that have been filed. That would be the next step for FERC before this case could go to litigation. FERC has no time line in which to ask -- to act on requests for rehearing, but I think the more important point is they have been developing this policy for years. I mean they laid out in an order in ISO New England three years ago that MOPR is their standard solution and they have carried that through to PJM. I see no future where they change their mind on that policy and I think therefore the states are right in looking at what their alternatives are to continue participation in RPM.
Stephen Byrd:
Understood. And just to follow-up there Kathleen, can the auction proceed if there is pretty significant litigation from multiple states sort of questioning the fundamentals of the FERC order?
Kathleen Barron:
Well technically, it can. I mean I think from a good governance perspective, of course as I said before PJM should take into account the fact that some of the states need some more information to figure out what the impact is going to be on their citizens. They're going to need to do an internal evaluation. But from a legal perspective, the FERC order is final. And once the compliance filing is submitted and approved then PJM will be allowed to conduct an auction unless there's some sort of judicial stay imposed.
Stephen Byrd:
Understood. That's helpful. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Your next response is from Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research.
Steve Fleishman:
Yes. Hi, good morning.
Chris Crane:
Good morning.
Steve Fleishman:
Can you hear me okay, Chris? Thanks.
Chris Crane:
Yes, perfect. Yes, we can.
Steve Fleishman:
Great, great. So just on the Illinois process, could you just maybe talk to I guess an update of the legislation and just trying to make sure that -- I think the hope is that there'd be more of a long-term framework in place for treatment of nuclear and renewables. And just how much is that likely to be part of any legislative activity in the state?
Chris Crane:
Well it's definitely -- there's two focuses that Exelon has in the legislation. One is the ComEd side ensuring that we have adequate recovery mechanisms for capital investments being made, while trying to maintain the customer protections that we need by caps on bill increases. So that part is very critical. Kathleen can address the Genco parts. She's been heading that up in Springfield in and around the state.
Kathleen Barron:
Sure Steve. I can jump in on the -- on your point about having a longer-term framework which is exactly the point of the legislation that's pending in Illinois. And the idea of using the Fixed Resource Requirement provision in the PJM tariff or the FRR provision is to give states that kind of flexibility to provide for example for renewables that may want to have contracts of differing lengths exactly that flexibility for them to have those contracts. And likewise for their broader clean energy goals for them to be able to differentiate when they're procuring capacity resources between clean resources and emitting resources. And having that ability to design their capacity procurement to meet their state policy on a longer-term basis is one of the key benefits of the FRR strategy.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. And any sense on when we'll get kind of a more -- kind of full bill with more details proposed to get a better sense on just the details of a potential bill?
Kathleen Barron:
Yes. I think you should expect to see further discussion and public hearings about what the bill should look like. As you know there are a number of proposals that are alive in the legislature in Springfield and so there needs to be some discussion in public hearings of how the state's policy on all the issues that are pending will come together in a comprehensive approach. So I think over the course of the spring session those details will become more evident. As you know in most legislatures, it usually takes until closer to the end of the session for all the details to be worked out, but I think you'll start to see over the coming weeks and months more detail emerge.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. And then a broader question just on -- I guess it's an ESG/nuclear carbon question. Just -- maybe for Chris, just how do you feel about your ability to get credit? It seems like there's a lot of focus on ESG and renewables and not necessarily as much focus on the benefits of nuclear and carbon reduction as you said 12% of the megawatt hours you produced for the country last year. Just how do you feel that you're going to be able to get credit either Republican or Democrat for the benefits of nuclear? Just how both sides are kind of looking at that right now including the FERC side?
Chris Crane:
Yes. I think over the last two to three years, you've seen a greater recognition of the benefit of nuclear as it's contributing to a cleaner environment low carbon and also other emitting gases. So as we work with stakeholders explaining electrification and the benefits of electrification and that electrification is coming from clean sources that are highly reliable like baseload nuclear, and there's been quite a few environmental organizations and government legislative folks that agree with that. The dialogue is going on, on how do we keep these assets so the states can make their goals and that's going to be a critical part going forward. We've shared numbers with you before that if we shut down a couple of nuclear units in a single state, we can totally destroy all the investments that were being made in the renewables and we're just going to go backwards with our carbon emission. So we have to do our job as -- not only as a company, but an industry and we're trying to do that. The Nuclear Energy Institute has done a very good job on their campaign to communicate that to greater and broader masses and we'll continue to do it ourselves and work through things like the legislation that may be enacted or policies that may be enacted in states. We've seen the ZEC and the recognition in New York. We saw the ZEC and the recognition in Illinois. We're going to have to go a little bit further to be able to save these plants and that's where we're talking about FRR. And it's also -- another part of it is, it's more than just environmental. The reliability they provide, the jobs they provide, the economic engine for the communities that they serve is very impactful. And to not have these assets or them to be replaced with carbon-based assets will just send the states not only financially, but environmentally backwards.
Steve Fleishman:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Your next response is from Shar Pourreza from Guggenheim.
Shar Pourreza:
Hey, good morning guys.
Chris Crane:
Good morning.
Shar Pourreza:
Just focusing a little bit on the Genco. If we get to sort of the November veto session and find energy legislation gets pushed to 2021 and we assume that there will be a PJM auction in, let's say, December and January and another one roughly six months after that. Can you just walk us through how you'd be thinking about the auction participation and the timing of potential closures? And do you feel that the MOPR order has catalyzed the states to act on CJC?
Chris Crane:
We're not speculating right now on that. We surely hope for many complicated issues that the states are able to enact and given time to enact the policies that they desire that will allow these plants to still operate. I've said for the last four or five years on almost every earnings call that if we can't see half to financial stability for each one of these assets that we will have to retire them and we're not going to speculate today on which ones or when. But we've shut down Oyster Creek, gone into decommissioning with a decommissioning company. TMI is off. There was no path for financial stability. And as I've said in the past, we must watch the balance sheet and our debt commitments and the negative cash flow assets will only send the fleet backwards and our goals on strong investment-grade will allow us to maintain our commitments to operate plants safely and meet our financial commitments on retiring our debt. So, we'll work hard through this legislative session to convey the importance of it and we're not going to speculate until we have no longer have a path to profitability for the assets.
Shar Pourreza:
Got it. And then if let's just say Illinois does FRR, how are you thinking about maybe the potential impacts on sort of the rest of the RTO fleet like in Pennsylvania and Maryland, especially given obviously the IMM has been taken somewhat of a bearish tone on the impact?
Kathleen Barron:
Yeah. Shar, this is Kathleen. I can take that one. I mean, there are a number of estimates as you know out there about the impact of one, two, three, four, five states choosing the FRR option. We have not conducted an analysis of what that means for the rest of the pool so I'm not going to speculate on which ones of those analyses are accurate. But I will just say with respect to the market monitor, and the suggestion that the MOPR is going to have no impact on capacity clearing prices, it's -- and I note that that's been repeated by a number of the fossil companies, yeah, it's just it's a little bit concerning. I mean, it's exactly these state programs that they -- that were the reason that multi-litigation was brought by these companies. Recall when the first lawsuit was filed in New York, when New York adopted the ZEC program they said the point of the lawsuit was that ZEC programs were suppressing market prices by $15 billion over the course of that program's life. The whole purpose of MOPR was to raise capacity prices. Commissioner Glick estimated that he's going to raise capacity prices by $2.4 billion annually across the pool. Other independent analyses have gone there too. So it's just not credible for them to be now saying MOPR is going to have no impact.
Shar Pourreza:
Got it. That’s helpful. And congrats guys, its very solid result.
Chris Crane:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next response is from Joseph Gutowski [ph] from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Julien Smith:
Hi, it’s Julien, can you hear me?
Chris Crane:
Yes.
Julien Smith:
Thank you guys for the time. Super quick. Let me come back to some of the numbers that we start with Greg earlier. Just in terms of the guidance I know you mentioned the AFUDC and the reconciliation of the CapEx and rate base. Can we talk about the earnings? Obviously, rate base unchanged; EPS guidance higher. Is that principally due to some of these changes in AFUDC that isn't formally reflected in that rate base and obviously is reflected in that CapEx? Or are there other changes? Obviously the cadence of the trajectory of the earnings in 2020 and 2021 onwards has shifted a little bit as well but just wanted to clarify that. And then also on ExGen, similar dynamic around what's causing the offset versus the open margin. I think you had a little bit of a quick brief commentary about basis potentially. Just want to elaborate quickly on that as well as maybe the tax piece for ExGen year-over-year.
Joe Nigro:
Yes, Julien. Good morning, it's Joe. On your first question remember we're giving you guidance for the combined EU and HoldCo, so there's a couple of variables even though we're investing CapEx and rate bases are rising. When you look at it the interest rate – the interest expense at corporate is projected lower which drives EPS as one variable that's positive to the earnings. We are – when you look at these projects, right you could still see there is additional CapEx growth and then we've had some improvement in ROEs versus our prior plan as well based on some of the regulatory actions and performance. So there's a number of variables outside just the incremental CapEx that would drive the value. Your second question on the offsets at generation it's – when you look at the prices falling use 2021 as an example where we're less than 70% hedged. You see that you would have the open gross margin come down. However that's a price at a common trading point. When you look at the values associated back to where the generator busbars are for example those prices move every day as well and there were some offsets associated with that. So that got us down to flat.
Julien Smith:
Got it. Excellent. And then just to come back to the broader strategic points here. At what point in time do you need to make decisions here? It sounds like there's latitude through the course of this year. And then related to that are you expecting any kind of FRR developments ahead of these auctions themselves? Or would the outcome of the auction and the outcome of any ultimate resolution of how to run this auction prove to be a decision point for states outside of Illinois? I just want to understand the cadence of events given where we stand today. I know there's a lot of moving pieces and that could be a long question but I'll let you respond to as you peak that.
Chris Crane:
We are definitely responding to the MOPR in our commentary to FERC in PJM if they need to allow the states to enact whatever policy or legislation they are pursuing prior to running the auctions. There's adequate capacity in – within the system that we don't need to rush to secure it until the rules are clear. So it would be an unfortunate event if the auctions ran before the states were able to take action, which means you'd be looking at 2024, 2025, before you'd be able to enact and that's a long time with negative cash flows that many of the units would be facing at that point. So we want to work with every stakeholder we can within the states that we serve to help them enact the policies and explain what we can on the economics. If the bill, as we've seen it and draft towards the end of last year is enacted, it actually has a significant benefit to the consumer. It's not a bill increase as being communicated by some are understood by others. It actually as Kathleen pointed out, could cost as much as $2.6 billion to the PJM customers. And you take just Illinois alone, that's about 15% or a little over $400 million on an annual basis on an increase to those customers. So there's a customer benefit here. There's – as drafted or inputted previously there is a cap on the -- and what can be increased on both sides of the investment to support the renewables or the cost of the energy capacity in the system. So we need to be able to have the time -- or the states need to be able to have the time and there's discussion in multiple states right now that they want to look at something differently. And we hope that PJM respects the states' needs and allows them time to enact the policies that they desire.
Julien Smith:
Perfect
Operator:
Thank you. Your last question come comes from the line of Michael Weinstein from Crédit Suisse.
Michael Weinstein:
Hi, Joe and Chris.
Chris Crane:
Hey, Mike.
Michael Weinstein:
Hey. Maybe you could explain a little bit why the hedging program is still -- is a little bit more behind ratable? And I guess you talked about not expecting a significant balance in power prices going forward. Just wondering what the -- what your thinking is.
Chris Crane:
Yes. I'll let Jim McHugh answer that.
Jim McHugh:
Yeah. Hi, Michael, it's Jim. We have shifted our positioning in the markets through time. I think we -- at this time of year 18 months ago or even 24 months ago we were carrying a position behind ratable primarily in the baseload regions looking at the markets and where they were trading. What we've done is we've shifted some of that to different regions. For example one of the areas we've -- with a backward-dated curve in ERCOT for example. We see opportunities in different seasons in Texas with ORDC pricing being more relative for the future. So there's just we're picking and choosing our spots I would say and it's spread out across multiple regions. And it's just a smaller overall position but we're looking at where the opportunities are. And then not -- a little bit relative to your question I would just highlight too that the vast majority of our new business would not come from that type of optimization activity, but 70% to 75% would come from our load sales and customer-facing business in retail and wholesale. So we see a good strong pipeline for those activities. And you saw the win rates and renewal rates that Chris spoke to during the call which is another opportunity for us to continue to make our new business targets.
Michael Weinstein:
Right. Still pretty well-balanced. Hey, and on the capital program would it be fair to say that it's -- that you're being conservative on it given the uncertainty over PJM and CJM? Could the capital program actually be higher next year if we see some more resolution more certainty over that?
Joe Nigro:
Michael, what I would say is our capital program reflects what we think is -- the projects we've identified as I said in my prepared remarks at this point in time. I think that you've seen the uptick in what we put in in 2019 versus what we're putting in in 2020 and we'll continue to challenge ourselves for the benefit of our customers. But right now I would tell you I think what we're showing you is a fair reflection of where we are and what we expect to do.
Calvin Butler:
Michael, this is Calvin. I would also say when you look at 2019 we added $150 million additional capital all around gas main replacement and really adding to the overall customer experience. And as we've built out our plan whether it's transmission or distribution additional capital it's all around meeting those customers' expectations and our stakeholders' in terms of reliability and resiliency. So we feel we have a solid plan and can execute to it.
Chris Crane:
The only thing, I'd add to that is every quarter we look at the total bill of the customers and we're very sensitive to making sure the investment is prudent. It drives efficiency reliability and benefit to the customer and we also watch the affordability.
Michael Weinstein:
Got it. One last question. Hey, Calvin. So the PHI multiyear rate plan filing for this year are you guys -- would it be fair to say that the ROEs tick up from the low 9s could go up to the high 9s if you get that approved later on?
Calvin Butler:
No. What we anticipate -- we do not first right now we expect the DC Commission to come out with a ruling in the fourth quarter of this year. And along the way we've adjusted our ask in terms of those multiyear plans. But we have a very solid understanding of what those ROEs are so I'm comfortable with where they are right now.
Michael Weinstein:
Got you. All right. Thank you very much.
Chris Crane:
Thank you and thank you for participating today. Before we end, I want to thank our employees for staying focused on safety and delivering another good year both operationally and financially. And with that, I'll close out the call. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you for joining us today. We hope you found this presentation informative. This concludes our presentation. You may now disconnect and have a good day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the Exelon 2019 Third Quarter Earnings Call. At this time all participant lines are in a listen only mode. After the speakers’ presentation there will be a question and answer session. [Operator Instructions]. I would now like to hand the call over to your speaker today, Dan Eggers, Senior Vice President of Corporate Finance. Please go ahead, sir.
Dan Eggers:
Thank you, Tamara. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our third quarter 2019 earnings conference call. Leading the call today are Chris Crane, Exelon's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Joe Nigro Exelon's Chief Financial Officer. They're joined by other members of Exelon senior management team who will be available to answer your questions following our prepared remarks. We issued our earnings release this morning along with the presentation, both of which can be found in the Investor Relations section of Exelon's website. The earnings release and other matters, which we discuss during today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties, actual results could differ from our forward-looking statements based on factors and assumptions discussed in today's material and comments made during this call. Please refer to today's 8-K and Exelon's other SEC filings for discussions of risk factors and factors that may cause results to differ from management's projections, forecasts and expectations. Today's presentation also includes references to adjusted operating earnings and other non-GAAP measures. Please refer to the information contained in the appendix of our presentation. And our earnings release for reconciliations between the non-GAAP measures and the nearest equivalent GAAP measures. I'll turn the call over to Mr. Chris Crane, Exelon's Chief Executive Officer.
Chris Crane:
Thank you, Dan, and good morning, everyone. We had a good quarter delivering strong earnings, excellent customer service across our utilities and our nuclear units ran at high levels of reliability. I'll turn to our regular reporting of our financial performance in a minute, but I first want to address a matter that I know is on all of our minds. We have publicly reported we have received two grand-jury subpoenas; the subjects which are lobbying practices in Illinois and the company's relationship with an Illinois state senator. These subpoenas and the speculation about what's behind them have dominated the news about Exelon and ComEd. Given that the investigations are ongoing we cannot discuss many details, but I'll tell you this, when we learned of these investigations we pledged complete cooperation with the government and that is the path we have taken. The company's outside lawyers are undertaking an exhaustive investigation of the facts relevant to the subpoenas, a special committee of the Board represented by its own outside counsel has also been informed and is being briefed on the investigation. Exelon's outside lawyers are sharing the results of the investigation with the government on an ongoing basis. Their investigation is enabling us to determine what changes necessary internally to ensure that going forward we operate at the highest possible standards, not whether actions have been legal or not but rather which go beyond the ethical reproach. We are keeping our eye on the ball by staying focused on the operational and the strategic path that has delivered the success. Now I'll turn to the regular report and answer any questions about that I can at the end of the call. Starting on Slide 5, we've had positive developments over the quarter. First, we were named Dow Jones Sustainability Index for the 14th year in a row with Exelon continuing to score in the top 20% of North American companies in all industries. Second, we launched a Climate Investment Initiative to invest $20 million and start-ups in our service territories that are working on new technologies to reduce greenhouse emission -- gas emissions in climate change -- mitigating climate change. Third, Pepco Maryland was granted a 9.6 allowed ROE in its most recent rate case. This is an improvement and the results continued to -- through the enhancement in our reliability and customer service for our customers. Fourth, the Maryland PSC issued an order in the alternative rate making proceeding known as PC 51, allowing Maryland utilities to file a multi-year rate plan as soon as next year. Fifth, the New York Supreme Court rejected challenges to the New York ZEC program removing the last remaining legal challenge in front of us. Sixth the Governor Wealth Issue and executive order beginning to process for Pennsylvania to join REGI, the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative. This will allow Pennsylvania to meet its climate goals while helping to preserve the state's remaining zero carbon nuclear plants. Seventh, earlier this week, we announced an agreement with Governor Hogan in Maryland that will allow us to continue to operate Conowingo Dam and protect the long-term health of the Chesapeake Bay. Continued production of carbon free energy from the dam is vital to support Governor Hogan's goal in generating a 100% clean electricity in Maryland by 2040. Finally, we're announcing new round of cost savings at ExGen finding an additional $100 million savings. We continue to work hard at driving efficiencies and adapting to current market conditions. These savings will help ExGen navigate the depressed forwards but will not be enough to overcome the financial challenges of some of our Illinois nuclear plants. I realize there has been some discussion on the potential impact of the investigation on the prospects of a clean energy legislation in Illinois. The need for clean energy legislation is bigger than just one stakeholder or one company. We are one part, but only one part of the ongoing discussion about the urgent need for legislation in Illinois. With the roadblock, excuse me, with the rollback of environmental regulations in Washington, states across the country are taking action to require emission reductions, so they can benefit from clean energy economy that will result. This is true Illinois where many stakeholders and policymakers want for Illinois on a path to 100% clean drive and drive electrification of transportation and to protect our communities. They believe the act action is urgently needed in Illinois to ensure clean air, reliable service in affordable rates for Illinois consumers. Exelon nuclear plants are essential to achieving these goals. The four plants without ZECs avoid $45 million metric tons of carbon dioxide emission contribute 4.5 billion in state gross domestic product pay $149 million in state taxes and if they were to retire prematurely Illinois customers -- consumers will pay more than $483 million more in electricity annually. I should point out that the delays in enacting the legislation are in part linked to FERC's delay in issuing an order on PJM market capacity. This is due to the lack of quorum until the end of November when Commissioner Glick completes his recusal period, and while the FERC delay is very frustrating. It does allow Illinois more time to enact and implement the legislation changes in time to protect the clean energy programs from negative treatment in PJM capacity auction. The delay in FERC order will push back the 2022 and '23 auction until at least late fall of 2020. Spring passage of legislation will allow for Illinois clean energy procurement mechanism to be in place before the 2023/2024 capacity auction and potentially before the 2022/2023 auction as well. Moving to our financial results, we have had a strong quarter with the earnings above our guidance. Our GAAP-based -- on a GAAP basis, we earned $0.79 per share versus $0.76 per share last year. On a non-GAAP basis, we earned $0.92 per share versus $0.88 per share last year. Joe will cover these details in his remarks. Moving onto Slide 6, operational performance at the utilities was mix this quarter. Each of our utilities performed well on customer operations side, with mostly top quartile performance. However, only ComEd performed in the first quartile and outage frequency and duration metrics. This year, in the Middle Atlantic, we have seen significantly more storms and abnormally higher temperatures which increased vegetation impacts it caused on the reliability related issues. For instance PHI had 27 minor storms in 2019 compared to four in 2018. These drove the lower reliability metrics for our mid-Atlantic utilities. Generation performed well during the quarter. Nuclear produced 39.2 terawatt hours of zero emission electricity with a capacity factor of 95.5. Exelon power exceeded our plan and had a gas and hydro dispatch match of 97.5 and a wind and solar capture of 96.5. That said, we also had some outages in Texas during critical hours that were disappointing and cause us to miss out on some of the bigger opportunities in ERCOT. For now, I'll turn it over to Joe, and then we'll go to the questions after. Thank you.
Joe Nigro:
Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone. Today, I will cover our third quarter results, quarterly financial updates, including trailing 12 month ROEs at the utilities and our hedge disclosures. I will also provide an update on our full year 2019 guidance and our cost management program. First, turning to Slide 7, we earned $0.79 per share on a GAAP basis and $0.92 per share on a non-GAAP basis which exceeded our guidance range of $0.80 to $0.90 per share. The outperformance was driven by Exelon utility which delivered a combined $0.56 per share net of holding company expenses. Utility earnings were higher relative to guidance, driven largely by O&M timing during the quarter and favorable weather in our non-decoupled jurisdictions including PECO, Atlantic City Electric and Delmarva Delaware. As a reminder, in total, we are approximately 70% decoupled across our utilities. ExGen earned $0.36 per share, which was a little behind our plan. The third quarter was impacted by unplanned outages at owned and contracted assets in ERCOT which unfortunately hit during periods of high prices. Although, we had one of the top 10 hottest summers in 70 years in PJM and the third hottest September on record, we saw lower prices and volatility which resulted in less ability to optimize our wholesale portfolio during the quarter. Turning to Slide 8, we show our quarter-over-quarter walk. The $0.92 per share in the third quarter of this year was $0.04 per share higher than the third quarter of 2018. Exelon Utilities less HoldCo earnings were up $0.001 per share compared with last year. The earnings growth was driven primarily by higher distribution rates, associated with completed rate cases relative to the third quarter of 2018. This was partially offset by unfavorable weather in load at PECO. ExGen's earnings were up $0.03 per share compared with last year, benefiting from fewer planned nuclear outage days at our owned and operated plants and savings associated with our cost management program. Higher ZEC revenues from the increase in New York ZEC pricing and the start of the New Jersey ZEC program in April of 2019 also contributed to ExGen's year-over-year earnings growth. These were partially offset by lower capacity pricing, primarily in PJM. Turning to Slide 9, we are narrowing our 2019 EPS guidance range to $3.05 to $3.20 a share from $3 to $3.30 per share. As you are aware ComEd's ROE is tied to the 30-year treasury rates which is declined about 70 basis points since the beginning of the year. Our updated guidance takes into account the slight degradation in earnings we are seeing from the decline in treasuries. We are delivering on our financial commitments and confident we will be within our revised guidance range at year-end. Moving to Slide 10, looking at our utility returns on a consolidated basis, we continue to exceed our consolidated 9% to 10% target with a 10.1% trailing 12 month ROE. Earned ROEs for the legacy Exelon utilities remained above 10% but dipped modestly last quarter, primarily due to a BG&E equity infusion to support capital investments as well as declining treasury yield which impacted ComEd's ROE. The decline in treasuries will continue to impact ComEd's ROE for the remainder of the year and going forward if they do not rebound. The consolidated PHI utilities earned a 9.4% ROE for the trailing 12 months, a 30 basis point increase from last quarter driven by higher distribution revenue from the constructive distribution rate order at both Pepco Maryland and the settlement at Atlantic City Electric. We remain focused on meeting our utility earnings growth target by maintaining the earned ROEs at PHI and sustaining strong performance at our other utilities. Turning to Slide 11. During the quarter, there were some important developments on the regulatory front outside of our rate cases. First, as Chris mentioned, in August, the Maryland PSC in its PC 51 proceeding found that alternative rate plans can be beneficial to both customers and utilities by reducing administrative costs caused by the frequent filing of traditional rate cases and providing customer rate predictability. The order supports the implementation of multi-year rate plans of a three-year duration and established a working group to develop the rules. We are actively participating in the group process. Once the commission issues its final order, Maryland utilities will be able to file a multi-year rate plan on a staggered basis consistent with the Commission's order. Second, the DC Public Service Commission approved Pepco's DC notice of construction request for Phase 1 of the capital grid project. It will strengthen the capital area electric system, improve reliability and resiliency and help facilitate the district's climate commitments. This phase including rebuilding two substation and constructing approximately 10 miles of two 230kV underground transmission lines. Phase 1 is scheduled for completion by 2026. On our current rate cases, Pepco Maryland received a final order on August 12th. The Maryland Commission approved a $10.3 million increase in annual electric distribution revenues. Importantly, the order increase at Pepco's allowed ROE by 10 basis points to 9.6%, a recognition of strong performance in reliability and customer satisfaction. Rates went into effect on August 13th. We also have several rate cases still in progress. On October 23rd, the administrative law judge providing over ComEd's annual formula rate case issued a proposed order, no additional adjustments to the revenue requirements were recommending. We expect to receive a final order from the Illinois Commerce Commission on December 4th of this year. Last Friday, BGE filed a settlement agreement with the Maryland PSC. The settlement provides for an increase to BGE's annual electric and natural gas distribution rate of $25 million and $54 million respectively. We expect a final order by December of 2019. Finally, we received a procedural schedule in Pepco DC multi-year plan with the final order expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. More details on our rate cases can be found on Slides 21 through 24 of the appendix. Turning to Slide 12, we are continuing on our robust capital deployment at the utilities, investing $1.3 billion of capital during the third quarter. Year-to-date, we have invested $3.9 billion in capital at the utilities, improving our infrastructure and increasing reliability and resiliency for the benefit of our consumers. We expect to deploy more than $5.4 billion this year, $100 million above our original plan. And as a reminder, 63% of our rate base growth is covered under either formula rates or mechanisms like capital tracker. Today, I will talk about two projects that are part of these efforts and will bring improved performance to our customers in Maryland and New Jersey. The first project is the BGE key crossing reliability initiative, which is a $232 million multi-year project to install a double circuit 230kV overhead electric transmission line across the Patapsco River, replacing the 2.25 mile underground circuit. The circuits are critical link in the electric system and are exhibiting system symptoms of long-term failure and are approaching the end of the useful life. Key crossing will improve grid reliability by reducing risk of power outages caused by aging infrastructure and will support faster restoration of customer interruptions going forward. The second project Lewis Higbee Ontario rebuild project in Atlantic City. The $62 million project include rebuilding 369kV transmission lines which are about 16.5 line miles long in total and replacing 295 existing wood structures with 225 new galvanized steel structures. This project results potential system performance and reliability issues, thereby improving reliability and resiliency to customers in the service area of Absecon, Island. On Slide 13, we provide our gross margin update incurring current hedging strategy at the Generation company. Since the Constellation merger, we have delivered strong results in our wholesale business quarter-after-quarter even in an environment of declining power and natural gas prices as well as lower volatility. These market conditions combined with reduced liquidity added out on the curve leads to less opportunity to optimize our wholesale portfolio compared to history. As a result, we are reducing our power new business target by $50 million in 2020 and '21 and our non-power new business target by $50 million in 2021. These new business target reductions are mostly offset by cost savings, which I will discuss on the next slide. I should also stress that these changes reflect our expectation for our wholesale optimization business. Our customer facing Constellation businesses continue to perform very well with sustained margins and success in delivering new products for our customers. Turning to the gross margin tables, we did benefit in the third quarter from higher forward prices which you can see in the open gross margin line. These positives were offset by the lower wholesale business targets that I just discussed, which leaves total gross margin in 2020 and '21 flat. During the quarter, we hedged a more than a ratable amount as prices modestly recovered from their late second quarter lows. Although, we are still behind ratable overall ending the quarter 5% to 8% behind ratable in 2020 and 1% to 4% behind ratable in '21, we are much closer to a ratable hedging amount. We continue to see upside in certain markets but are not expecting a significant rebound in power prices. Turning to Slide 14. Between 2015 and 2018, we have announced more than $900 million in cost savings which does not include the synergies from our merger with PHI. These savings were primarily at Exelon Generation with approximately one-third coming from our corporate services company. In addition to O&M savings, we have continued to find ways to reduce the capital intensity of our generation fleet and improve its cash flows. Since 2015, we have reduced ExGen's total annual capital expenditures from $3.5 billion to a projected $1.5 billion in 2022, while maintaining the safety and reliability of our fleet. Included in these reductions are the elimination of most growth capital at ExGen except for Constellation's customer facing solar business. $325 million of base capex savings and $675 million of savings from nuclear fuel. One of the key components of our value proposition is ExGen's ability to generate free cash flow and we continue to look for ways to optimize its cash flow. Today, we are announcing additional $100 million in run rate, pre-tax cash savings in 2022. $75 million is attributed to O&M reductions and $25 million is other P&L items, which mostly offset the reduction in new business targets. I should point out that these savings reflect our current state and we expect an opportunity for additional savings that will vary in amounts depending on the future state of our challenged Illinois nuclear stations. We can find these savings due to the hard work of all of our employees, who strive every day to run the company more efficiently, while adhering to our commitments of safety, reliability and community stewardship. Finally, moving on to Slide 15, we remain committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet in our investment-grade credit rating. Our consolidated corporate credit metrics remain above our targeted ranges and meaningfully above S&P thresholds. Looking at ExGen, we are well ahead of our debt to EBITDA target of 3.0 times. For 2019, we expect to be at 2.5 times debt to EBITDA and 2 times debt to EBITDA when excluding non-recourse debt. Before turning the call back over to Chris for his closing remarks, I want to set expectations for our fourth quarter disclosures. Given the lack of clarity around the outcome of legislation in Illinois, which will shape the future of Exelon Generation and the fact that PJM will not have held the capacity auction for the 2022-2023 delivery year before our call in February, we will not be providing some of our usual disclosures, including the roll forward of our hedge disclosures to 2022 and ExGen's updated four-year free cash flow outlook. Thank you, and I'll now turn the call back to Chris for his closing remarks.
Chris Crane:
Thanks, Joe. Turning to Slide 16, we are accomplishing things we committed to do, including maintaining industry leading operations, meeting our financial commitments, effectively deploying more than $5 billion in capital across our utilities this year and advocating for policies that support clean energy. Our strategy remains the right one and we are committed to our value proposition. We will continue to grow the utilities targeting a 7.8% rate base growth and a 6% to 8% earnings growth through 2022. We continue to use, as Joe mentioned, the free cash flow from Genco to fund incremental equity needs at the utilities, paydown debt and fund part of the growing dividend. We will continue to optimize the value of our ExGen business by seeking fair compensation for zero emitting generation fleet, closing uneconomic plants like we did with TMI and Oyster Creek, selling assets where it makes sense to accelerate our debt reduction plans and maximizing value through the Generation to load match strategy at Constellation. We will sustain strong investment-grade metrics. We'll grow our dividend annually by 5% through 2020. The strategy underpinning this value proposition is effective. We remain committed to optimizing the value of our businesses and earn your ongoing support of Exelon. Operator, we can now turn it over to questions. Thank you.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. Your first response is from Greg Gordon of Evercore. Please go ahead.
Greg Gordon:
Thanks, good morning. Got a couple of questions. First as it pertains to ExGen, you sort of commented at the end with regard to plant closures. If you're, for one reason or another, unable to get the state of Illinois to understand the economic necessity of increased compensation for your nuclear fleet. At what point do you go down the path of moving to shutdown of the most uneconomic units?
Chris Crane:
I can't stress how important the spring legislative session will be for the future of the four sites that are not covered under the ZEC program. So we'll be watching -- there's couple of variables here, we'll be watching what happens with the FERC order and what PJMs responses to the FERC order driving the legislation, but the first half of 2020, will be a real critical point in decision making and potential announcements one way or the other.
Greg Gordon:
And Joe. As it pertains to the details of the guidance, it's sort of two steps forward, 1.5 steps back on the outlook for ExGen better wholesale prices, but -- and the cost cutting, but lower optimization expectations. Is that a function of just lower volatility and lower overall prices making it less some -- less -- that volatility lessening the opportunity for your traders to manage the book effectively or can you give us a little more color on that?
Joe Nigro:
Yeah, Greg. You're spot on. I think it's a combination of factors. It's -- the lower volatility in the marketplace, I mean, we had a warm summer here and we didn't see much volatility, we didn't see prices respond. I do want to stress that we're talking about the wholesale side of our business, our retail business remains very solid. And as it relates to ExGen, we announced these cost cuts which mostly offset the reduction in new business targets. As Chris mentioned, depending on the outcome of Illinois, there is still other things that we would have to evaluate on how our business model changes and disposition of assets. There is other costs that we would look at -- some of the levers we have at hand, we'll continue to address capex obviously and any other asset financing. So there is a combination of factors here. But specifically to the drop in the new business targets, it is the market environment that we're seeing.
Greg Gordon:
Okay. And then on -- two more questions, one on the regulated side, the ComEd sounds like it's operating very well but 30-year is a headwind and it'll continue to be a headwind into next year and until we see a steepening of the yield curve. So like -- as you're looking at the outcomes in the other areas of the utility business. The other 60%, 65% of the earnings contribution from outside ComEd, are you seeing opportunities to offset the impact of interest rates or should we assume that all things equal, you're trending lower in that 6% to 8% guidance range than you were before?
Joe Nigro:
Yeah, Greg. Good questions, Joe again. We update once a year on our Q4 call and we -- and as it relates to Exelon utilities and we will expect to do that on the call in February. Having said that, we are seeing the impact of the lower ROEs at ComEd just for reference every 50 basis point move up or down is about $0.03 of EPS. So for 2019 for example, the weighted average 30-year is down approximately 50 basis points and you see that with our revised guidance. The 30-year treasury on the forward curve is down approximately 70 basis points versus 12/31. I would say though that's one piece of the plan. The capex plan, as we've said, only corporates identified projects that benefit the consumer and improve the liability in the customer experience. We have seen through time that as we get closer to a given period, we find need for an additional investment to continue to improve the liability in that customer experience and we'll continue to work hard at that as we move forward.
Greg Gordon:
All right. And my last question, Chris, I know it's a difficult topic, the investigation. The second subpoena and the retirement of Anne Pramaggiore, they're all very disconcerting public disclosures. What is it that you can tell us about how you can potentially resolve this investigation? What kind of timeline are we looking at between now and when you can get the other parties and this comfortable with the way that you've acted or comfortable that they've gotten the information they need, so that we can resolve this?
Chris Crane:
There is a grand-jury investigation going on. There's not a lot of details that we can provide at this point. The timeline is not set by us, it's set by the government and the grand-jury and we'll continue to cooperate. Anything we learn from our outside attorneys doing the independent investigation will immediately take action on and correct. But our cooperation with the government -- full cooperation, very open cooperation is the imperative here. And like I said, we're not passing judgment on is anything legal or illegal and some of our past practices with contract lobbyists or consultants. So these things can take a while. I don't expect it will impede our business at all. Going forward is keeping the eye on the ball, improving the operations, driving the reliability while driving efficiency at the same time. The management team is very focused. There's a lot of speculation in news articles. There is things out there that people are speculating on that they're getting to say that the best. So we'll just have to continue the process, continue to cooperate, continue to keep our eye on the ball and when it comes time that we're able to speak we can provide a little bit more color on any corrective actions we've taken. But for now, it's -- we can't go there.
Operator:
Thank you. Your next question is from the line of Julien Dumoulin Smith from Bank of America.
Julien Dumoulin Smith:
Hey, good morning, team. Hey just wanted to follow up on a few details perhaps we can talk to as a function of the process today. And I'll include that the two of them together here. First the Clean Jobs Coalition and just some of the headlines around where the legislative -- legislation stands today. I know whether it happens this year or more importantly next year. Just wanted to understand how we're framing that conversation today given the realities? And then separately and somewhat related, I'd be curious how would you position the conversation of the franchise extension at ComEd next year? It seems unrelated, but I just want to make sure we at least talk through some of the process on that front as well?
Chris Crane:
Sure, I'll cover the first part and Joe Dominguez is with us and I'll let him cover the second part. The conversations, negotiations, strategy for the legislation is still an active conversation with many stakeholders. And when you talk about the Clean Jobs Coalition, just so you know that's not a very structured organization. And to speak as a body, as somebody did to one publication, we're still very close in conversation with some of those members of the coalition and we'll continue, but there is a lot of people involved, there is different coalitions, there's the path to one hundred to the clean jobs coalition. There is the labor. So things are continuing to evolve in conversations with leadership and the legislature are continuing to take place. So it's not like we're stalled or stopped or don't have parties to deal with. Kathleen is doing -- for the Generation side doing a significant part of that. And Joe is working to not only support what the Governor wants and what the State wants, but in the meantime, also protecting the consumers to make sure what we're doing to get to the path to a 100% clean by 2030 is done in a most economic fashion. I'll Kathleen if she wants to add anything more to the first part and I'm going to turn it over to Joe.
Kathleen Barron:
The only thing that I would add is that the same news story is talking about that question, Julien. I also mentioned that the FRR is the center piece of this CJC bill. And that's because it's essential to achieving the state's clean energy goals. If we do not address this, the PJM market will send over $1 billion a year to old coal plants rather than investing the money toward the state's clean energy ambition, and that the fact that folks are lobbying and rallying in the capital around this. The fact that it's an important policy change and that it needs to happen right away is something that should be noted. Now obviously there are other elements of the bill both from the CJC, the path to 100 others that there is not agreement about and that's why it's going to take all stakeholders together to deliver piece of legislation that will get the states to its clean energy goals in a way that's affordable and we are committed, as Chris said, to working with all stakeholders to achieve that goal.
Chris Crane:
Joe?
Joe Dominguez:
Great, Julien good morning. Let me just start off explaining what the franchise agreement is. At its most basic level, it's an agreement that sets for the procedures for us to use city right away for our infrastructure and the fee schedule that we pay in order to use their right away. So what I'm talking about here that are kind of granular things that are in the franchise agreement is, how many times could you open up a street to interconnect a new business, what the fees are for those operations that kind of granular detail. We've been in negotiations with the city now for some time. There was a pause in those negotiations while the mayor's race was being sorted out and her new team was put in place, I'm pleased with the progress we're making right now. There are three potential outcomes here. The agreement that is scheduled to come to an end at the end of next calendar year, at the end of 2020. Either party ComEd or the city have an option at the end of this year to terminate the agreement or they could continue to negotiate. As I said the path we're on right now is that we're continuing to negotiate and if we're successful we'll will get a new agreement. If the city elects to terminate at the end of this year, we will continue negotiations and if we do not reach a resolution. It's not like we stop providing electric service to the city but our fee schedule and our procedures will drop out of the franchise agreement and will be governed by the municipal code that'll add a little bit of process to our work, but it doesn't shut down quite obviously our activities. If the city does not issue a notice of termination at the end of the year and we continue to negotiate and can't reach a resolution. Then the agreement by its terms just continues year-to-year until we reach a resolution. So that's kind of the outline of it. And Julien, if you don't mind, I'd like to provide some additional context Chris and Greg talked a little bit about our performance, but I think it bears on the entire discussion this morning. We are on track at ComEd to deliver our best performance in the history of the company. We talk about being first quartile. We're actually first decile in reliability and arguably best in class. As a result of the good policies, which we've advocated for, 92% of the energy that we deliver to customers comes from zero carbon resources. To put that into context, the next closest large utility is at about 46%. We have a supplier diversity program that is second to none. 41% of our spend this year is with businesses owned by women and people of color as well as veterans. We are on track as a result of all of this to deliver the best customer satisfaction we've ever seen. And we're doing all of it at affordable rates. Today, our rates are 20% lower than the average for large American cities. Four out of nine of our rate cases have been decreases under the smart grid law, including the last two cases. Chris talked about the investigation and certainly, we'll have learnings as a consequence of it. But it's important for all of the shareholders who invest in our platform to understand that we are doing a lot of things, right. And with some humility could lay claim to being one of the best performing utilities in America. And I just add that for context in all of the things we're talking about today.
Chris Crane:
Thanks, Joe.
Julien Dumoulin Smith:
Excellent. Guys, I appreciate that.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Steve Fleishman from Wolfe Research.
Steve Fleishman:
Yeah. Hi, good morning. So I guess one of the things that we struggle with these disclosures has just been really what benefit if any you've gotten from legislation over the last few years. And for example on the formula rates, the ROE right now is actually really low and, as Joe mentioned. And then also, I guess, you've gotten the ZECs on Clin and Quad. So just but I think those plants would have been losing a lot of money if you didn't get them. So I guess, maybe you could just give some color of kind of what value really is at risk from this from an investor standpoint because it's just not clear that you've gotten a lot of value out of any legislation over this period?
Chris Crane:
Well, we -- the value is the consistency in the process of the rate cases. We are tied to the 30-year and that was a negotiation that was done. If you look at the history of the rate cases and how it has improved the regulatory process and the consistency of the regulatory process, I think there's a lot of value in that. When you get 100% of ask or 99.6% of ask and you're not litigating something over an extended period, it creates predictability. We can't control the 30-year, but we can control the efficiency and the productivity of the system with the right regulatory format and that's what we've done. As for Clinton and Quad cities it did save the plants and it's more than just saving losing cash, we would have shut them down and that issue would have been resolved very quickly. It's meaningful to state in the community but it also is providing a profitable cash flow from those units. We're working on legislation that would either secure on the other four sites in the state through the FRR process or we will shut those plants down. So -- in a point in time with the low interest rate, you could point to that and say we haven't got anything, but that is not been the historical case, and going forward, we'll watch what we can do if interest rates persist to stay low what action we should take. But I would have to tell you that, I understand the sentiment of your view or your question but there has been a great deal of consistency that's happened and a great deal of ability to invest capital. It's more than just the ROE, right. We have been able to through legislative terms -- been able to consistently invest needed capital for reliability and efficiency and be able to earn a return. They may be a little bit lower returns but we're able to predictably invest the money and predictably get a return on the money. So that's huge, if you go back historically to what's happened in some of our jurisdictions investing money at risk and then getting the disallowances in the regulatory process was much more damning than having a low 30-year rate and having a low ROE , but still an ROE that's above our cost of capital.
Steve Fleishman:
Yeah. Got that. And then just one other question with respect to the nuclear plants. This may be premature, but just could you give us a sense, I am assuming they're -- money-losing on their own the 4 nuclear plants that you're referring too, is there any way to kind of get a sense of the -- if you ended up having to shut them, what it would do?
Chris Crane:
We don't evaluate the market response -- projected market response from shutting the plants down. So what we do evaluate is the current financial performance of the free cash flow and earnings and then the forward projected based on the forward curves and look at the credit metrics and the balance sheet to see what's happening. And so we have discussed openly that there -- the four sites are in the future at current forwards with the current capacity market being managed the way it is by PJM versus the needs that the state wants to maintain the clean energy sources with lack of being able to get legislation to change and be able to pull ourselves out of a very inefficient by what the state wants auction process at PJM and go into FRR. They're marginal at best to looking forward to losing cash and earnings. So that's the situation. Now, I don't think we're announcing the amounts yet. We're continuing to evaluate these numbers, but I can tell you that some are more dire than others at this point and we need to move forward with the legislation to prevent the loss for the state from an environmental perspective and from economic perspective.
Steve Fleishman:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Your next response is from Stephen Byrd from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Stephen Byrd:
Just wanted to go back to the point you mentioned about the special committee at the Board with respect to the Illinois investigation. Are there any targeted deliverables in terms of reports or updates and will any of that eventually be made public or is that more for internal purposes?
Chris Crane:
I'll let Bill answer that.
Bill Von Hoene:
Steven, it's Bill Von Hoene. The special committee of independent directors will continue to meet periodically as needed. They have their own counsel. There is no particular deliverable that you should anticipate out of that. It's just part of the regular process that's undertaking in circumstances such as this. So no particular deliverable should you foresee.
Stephen Byrd:
Understood. And in terms of the scope of the investigation, to your knowledge, is this focused solely on Illinois or there are other states or elements of the business involved?
Bill Von Hoene:
We're not at liberty to talk about the particulars of the investigation but you've seen what has been reported about the subject matter and the subject matter of that has been reported by us in our case, and I refer you to that.
Stephen Byrd:
Yeah. No, that's fair. And then just lastly -- just in terms of the scope of the investigation. I think there are four individuals mentioned. And I think we've seen two announcements from Exelon I assume just at a high level, you had mentioned, Chris at the beginning the policy is to cooperate with investigations. I presume that employees who do not cooperate would not be employed at the firm or is there sort of policy we should think about in terms of how you approach cooperation with the investigations?
Chris Crane:
Yeah, the expectation is for all employees and all executives to participate in whatever manner they're requested to, if that's providing information or having discussions. That's the expectation. Peoples employment is based on their total record, but our expectation is full cooperation and ethical behavior.
Operator:
Thank you. Your next response is from Praful Mehta from Citigroup.
Praful Mehta:
Hi. Good morning. So maybe I just wanted to focus on the generation side a little bit, as comparing Q2 and Q3 power prices and it looks like every region the power prices go higher. However, given as you talked about your volatility was lower and so margins came in lower and there is also a little bit of cost cutting now for 2021. So just wanted to understand how we should think about the generation business, it seems like curves itself aren't enough volatility is now a new element that we need to consider. How should we think about the stability of the generation business? And also in the context of reserve margins in PJM, if you could just give us a little bit more on how you think about the business that would be really helpful.
Chris Crane:
Let me have Joe starting and Jim McHugh go into more detail.
Joe Nigro:
Praful. Good morning. What -- I think if you think about what the intrinsic strategy of our generation business is, it's been producing electric generation and we deliver it to our customer-facing businesses and that still continues. Obviously, the power markets have some challenges and you've seen what we done -- we've done with our new business, we continue to work hard to find ways to reduce the cost structure both from an O&M and capital investment perspective of our generation assets as well as our Constellation business. And I think that's -- what you'll see us continue to do. I think the second piece of that gets into the industrial strategy of what we're trying to accomplish as a company. You see how we're investing in our utilities, you see how we continue to manage our balance sheet and we continue to return value to the shareholders. That is being done on the back of cash flows that are being generated -- free cash flow that's being generated at Exelon Generation and we will continue to work hard to do that as we continue to transform the Generation business. So last piece is obviously, as we've talked about in our prepared remarks and with some of the questions, we announced this cost cutting exercising business as usual state, depending on the outcome of the legislation in Illinois, clearly there is other elements to our business that would need to evolve under certain scenarios, so we'll continue to work hard at that and then that'll be dictated by other outcomes.
Ken Cornew:
Hey, Praful, it's Ken Cornew. I'll just add a comment. We can -- our strategy continues to be a premier operator of generation particularly nuclear and other clean generation and also be a solutions provider for customers that has not changed. I wouldn't think about the Generation company any differently than that. And I'd like Jim to comment a little more on the customer side of our business.
Jim McHugh:
Yeah, so I think it's important to note that the new business generation -- we put new business targets in our hedge disclosures, that's an expectation of the value we're going to create both from our customer-facing businesses as well as the optimization of the assets in the markets. The customer-facing businesses are performing very strongly and the stable value that has been there for a while, we still see good margins in really product enhancements and product solutions for customers who are demanding more. What's happening on our wholesale business side is the lower volatility in the markets which actually where we've reduced our new business targets around that end of the business, which actually, in my view point, leads to more stability. We have an environment where 70% to 75% of the gross margin in our new business will come from the stable customer-facing businesses that we run that are still performing strongly. So a smaller portion of our overall gross margins would come from this optimization activity. We happen to have an expectation of those numbers in our forward disclosures and that's the number that we are lowering based on this environment where we just see the supply stack being strong in markets like PJM and policy adding more generations to the stack, low natural gas price volatility and low demand growth in markets like PJM. So I think we're able to shift our business focus here to this customer-facing business that's more stable. We can reduce our costs to match that new business model and really provide an environment that I think is a less risk environment for the Generation company.
Praful Mehta:
Got you. That's super thoughtful and helpful color. So I appreciate that. I guess just the quick follow-up in terms of the federal investigation, as you mentioned earlier on the call, it could take a long time or it could take some time. So if it does take time and your Illinois legislation for some reason is delayed linked to that. How do you decide on what happens with the units? Do you still run them? Do you still -- nuclear refueling is still continued or do you kind of wait? What kind of decision making you kind of expect around that from a timing perspective?
Chris Crane:
Well nothing has been linked to the investigation and the legislation. Right now, there is -- to run any legislation we've got to see a FERC order and we probably won't see the FERC order of PJMs response. Both of those tied together till sometime in the first quarter which will enable us to refine a legislative path going forward. If for some reason we don't garner support as a coalition in a large group of stakeholders to go forward with the legislation by what we see in the market forwards today, plants will start to shut down. That's the reality if something doesn't happen in the Spring. Because PJM will run there are auctions, and if there is lack of legislation or our ability to withhold the load and the generation from that auction, the expectation of clearing megawatts you've seen the trend. So without being able to get capacity revenue for those eight reactors and the market forwards being as low as they are right now. It's uneconomic and the one thing we are not going to do is sit around and damage the balance sheet and create a situation that's unrecoverable. The responsibility of the balance sheet is very felt very strong by the management team and the actions that we will take. If lack of cohesive and complete resolution path forward. We can't sit here for years and bleed cash and build up debt and damage the HoldCo and further damage the Genco.
Praful Mehta:
Understood. That's very helpful. Thank you so much.
Operator:
Thank you. I will now turn the call back over to Chris Crane, President and CEO for closing remarks.
Chris Crane:
I just want to thank everybody for participating in the call today and the questions. And I understand that we can't answer everything right now, but rest assured, we're taking all the actions that are necessary to ensure we can put this behind us. So thank you. With that, I'll close out the call.
Operator:
Thank you for joining us today. This concludes today's conference call, you may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good morning and welcome to 2019 Second Quarter Exelon Earnings Call. My name is Laura, and I will be facilitating the audio portion of today’s interactive broadcast. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I’d like to turn the show over to Dan Eggers, Exelon’s Senior Vice President of Corporate Finance. Please go ahead, sir.
Daniel Eggers:
Thank you, Laura. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our second quarter 2019 earnings conference call. Leading the call today are Chris Crane, Exelon's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Joe Nigro, Exelon's Chief Financial Officer. They're joined by other members of Exelon's senior management team who will be available to answer your questions following our prepared remarks. We issued our earnings release this morning, along with the presentation, both of which can be found on the Investor Relations section of Exelon's website. The earnings release and other matters, which we discuss during today's call will contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ from our forward-looking statements based on factors and assumptions discussed in today's material and comments made during the call. Please refer to today's 8-K and Exelon's other SEC filings for discussions of risk factors and factors that may cause results to differ from management's projections, forecasts and expectations. Today's presentation also includes references to adjusted operating earnings and other non-GAAP measures. Please refer to the information contained in the appendix of our presentation and our earnings release for reconciliations between the non-GAAP measures and the nearest equivalent GAAP measures. We scheduled 45 minutes for today’s call. I'll now turn the call over to Chris Crane, Exelon's CEO.
Christopher Crane:
Thanks, Dan, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Before I turn to the financial results for the quarter, I'm going to spend a few minutes providing some key updates on a number of positive developments in our businesses over the last three months. First, we continue to move forward on our utility regulatory strategy, filing distribution rate cases at BGE, ComEd, and Pepco, DC, reflecting our safety and reliability investments across those service territories. In DC, we filed our first multiyear rate case. The plan provides the necessary framework to align Pepco system investments with DC policy goals, including grid modernization and further improvements to customer service and reliability. Joe will discuss the details in his remark. Second, last week, Pepco and other parties filed a settlement agreement at FERC for PECO’s formula rate, transmission rate. The settlement includes a 10.35% ROE inclusive of a 50 basis point ROE adder. PECO made the original filing in 2017 and we expect the final order from FERC in 2020. Third, in June, we issued our annual corporate sustainability report, marking our performance and sustainability goals and priorities. In addition, the Benchmarking Air Emissions report that found Exelon is the largest generator of zero emissions energy in the U.S., producing 12% of the nation's clean energy. Also that we have the lowest emissions rate admitting at a rate that is 4x less than the next cleanest generator. Fourth, the New Jersey BPU approved ZEC payments for the state nuclear units including our interest in sale. We appreciate the state support for the carbon-free power produced by these units. Fifth, we are unable to get legislation done in Pennsylvania in time to reverse the decision to close TMI this fall. Since then, there have been continued discussions on a path forward for the remaining nuclear plants in the state, including consideration of placing a price on carbon through the regional carbon trading. Six, we are also pleased the Trump Administration decided not to impose quotas on uranium which would have jeopardized the continued operation of commercial nuclear reactors in the United States. And finally, last week, FERC issued an order directing PJM not to run the capacity auction in August. We agree with FERC’s decision to delay the auction until the rules are finalized. The delay provides PJM and the state policymakers’ time to adjust to the commission’s changes. Before I turned to the financial results, I also want to address two matters, you have raised with us recently. First, we received a number of questions from investors about the impact on our business from a steep decline in power prices. The decline presents a considerable challenge for us, but as you know, our hedging disclosures are a point in time estimate. If you have seen them move up and down in the past, we need to be thoughtful and deliberate about our response if these prices persist, and we have a variety of levers that we can pull and decisions we can make if this is the future of energy markets. We are pursuing a number of market reforms addressing the financial challenges many of our plants space. Against this backdrop, I can also again assure you that we will not operate our unprofitable or negative free cash flow plants. You've seen us closed money losing plants in the past. You should expect that discipline to continue if reforms are not inactive. The bottom line is that fundamental market reforms in either the United States if we want to meet the nation's clean energy climate goals, maintain fuel security and reliable system. We need to sustain and increase electrification, preserving a significant economic value through good paying jobs in property taxes. We'll continue to work at the state level and the national level with birth the Congress and the administration to make this happen. Second, we've had – we received numerous questions from our investors about the subpoena in Illinois from the U.S. Attorney's Office. We are cooperating fully and provided all or providing all information requested by the U.S. Attorney's office. We simply can't comment further on the investigation and we're not going to speculate on whether it may affect legislative efforts in Illinois this fall. What we do know about this fall session is there are a number of stakeholders who want to see clean energy legislation enacted. Illinois lacks behind other progressive states on clean energy policy, passing the clean energy legislation as a priority for many stakeholders include in Illinois, including the Citizens Utility Board, Labor, the Clean Jobs Coalition, and the Renewable Community. These stakeholders want to greatly expand the renewable penetration, so the state will be able to achieve the 100% clean energy target by 2030. Kathleen and her team are working with the stakeholders to help craft the legislation or legislative package and the Board members of the General Assembly on the benefits of this legislation. It's important to remember that while we are putting a real effort into preserving the value of the generation pleat, our focus remains on the utilities. The bulk of our capital investment in growing a majority of our earnings are coming from the regulated business where we continue to see great opportunities to invest and grow to the benefit of our customers and communities. Now I'll turn to the financial results on Slide 5. We had a good quarter delivering earnings at midpoint range of our guidance. On GAAP basis, we earned $0.50 per share versus $0.56 last year. On a non-GAAP basis, we earned $0.60 per share versus $0.71 last year. Joe will cover these drivers in his remarks. Turning to Slide 6, operational performance of the utility was mixed during the quarter. We continued to perform at top quartile levels of costs for reliability and customer operations metrics or safety performance has slipped. Safety is the priority and we are focused on ways to improve our safety culture and performance. Outage frequency and outage duration performance is in the top quartile for three of our four utilities with ComEd performing in top decile. So, on the customer operations side, all of our utilities performed in top quartile for service level and call abandonment rate. Our relationship with our customers is improving due to the investments we are making to improve reliability and the customer experience. This could be seen in our customer satisfaction scores and then the recent J.D. Power electrical of residential customer satisfaction ratings. BGE and PECO, and ComEd achieve top decile performance and customer satisfaction index. We improved or maintained our rankings in the J.D. Power rankings. Delmarva ranked first in the east mid region – a mid-size region, the first excellent utility to ever be ranked first. BGE and PECO maintained their first quartile performance in the East Large segment and ComEd improved in its ranking to the second quartile. Generation perform well during the quarter nuclear produced 38.8 terawatts hours of zero emission electricity with the capacity factor of 95.1%. And Exelon power and had a gas and Hydro dispatch match of 99.7% exceeding our plan and the wind and solar capture on the plan was 96% - was weaker plan of 96%. Now I'll turn it over to Joe.
Joseph Nigro:
Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone. Today, I'll cover our second quarter result, our quarterly financial updates, including trailing 12-month ROEs at the utilities and our hedge disclosures. Turning to Slide 7. We earned $0.50 per share on a GAAP basis and $0.60 per share on a non-GAAP basis, which is at the midpoint of our guidance range of $0.55 to $0.65 per share. Exelon utilities delivered a combined $0.39 per share net of holding company expenses. Utility earnings were modestly higher than our plan largely due to O&M timing at ComEd, BGE and PECO, which will reverse itself over the course of the year. This was partially offset by milder weather than expected in the Philadelphia area impacting PECO by about $0.01 per share. ExGen earned $0.21 per share behind our plan. This was a result of lower load volumes that constellation due to mild weather any extended outage of Salem. These factors were partially offset by a favorable O&M, strong performance of our Generation fleet and realized gains in our nuclear decommissioning trust funds. We are reaffirming our full-year guidance for $3 to $3.30 per share and for the third quarter we are providing adjusted operating guidance, earnings guidance of $0.80 to $0.90 per share. On Slide 8, we show our quarter-over-quarter walk. The $0.60 per share in the second quarter of this year was $0.11 per share lower than the second quarter of 2018. Exelon Utilities less holdco earnings were up $0.04 per share compared with last year. This earnings growth is driven primarily by higher distribution rate associated with completed rate increases and higher transmission revenues at ComEd and PHI relative to the second quarter of 2018. This was partially offset by unfavorable weather at PECO. ExGen earnings were down $0.13 per share compared with last year. The decrease was driven by lower realized energy prices, partially offset by higher ZEC revenue from the increase in New York ZEC prices and started of the New Jersey’s ZEC program. Moving to Slide 9. Our utility ROEs remain strong and we continue to exceed our 9% to 10% earned ROE targets across the utilities. The consolidated PHI utility earned 9.1% ROE for the trailing 12 months, compared to last quarter and we had some help from the constructive distribution rate case settlement at ACE, Pepco DC and Pepco Maryland offset by equity infusions across PHI. Legacy Exelon Utilities maintained a strong 10.5% earned ROEs in the quarter. Importantly consolidated our ROEs across our utilities were 10.2%. We remain focused on meeting our utility earnings growth targets by maintaining the earned ROEs at PHI and sustaining the strong performance at our other utilities. Turning to Slide 10. On May 24, BGE filed for a combined $148 million rate increase in electric and gas distribution revenues. The requested rate increase included $81 million and almost $68 million for electric and gas revenues respectively, based on rate based of $5.4 billion and a requested ROE of 10.3%. The increase is primarily driven by the ongoing need for capital investments to maintain and modernize the electric and gas distribution system. It also reflects moving $15.8 million of revenues currently being recovered via the stride in electrical liability investments surcharges into rate base. We into base rates and we expect to receive an order in the fourth quarter. On May 30, Pepco filed a multi-year plan in the District of Columbia, requesting a revenue increase over three years to recover capital investments made during the 2019 period and planned investments over the 2020 to 2022 time period. The request provides the necessary framework to allow Pepco to align its system investments with policy goals set by the commission and enable us to continue to make the investments needed to modernize the energy grid, support the district's energy goals, and sustain first quartile reliability performance, and enhanced programs and tools that have resulted in improved satisfaction among our customers. The multi-year plan includes five Performance Incentive Mechanisms or PJMs focused on system reliability, customer service and interconnection of distributed energy resources. The inclusion of the PJMs with the multi-year plan provide a performance based rate making approach designed to strengthen general incentives or good utility performance can penalize or underperformance. The multi-year plan provides customers with rate predictability and reduces the administrative costs to customers caused by frequent filing with traditional rape cases to recover costs. On July 9, the Chief Public Utility Law Judge issued his proposed order in the Pepco Maryland distribution rate case. The Chief Judge recommended at $10.3 million revenue increase and in 9.6% allowed ROE, which is 10 basis points higher than Pepco Maryland's current ROE. A final order by the Maryland PSC is expected by August 13. Finally, ComEd annual formula rate update filing is expected to be decided in December of this year. More details on these rate cases can be found on Slide 20 to 23 in the appendix. Turning to Slide 11. We are continuing our robust capital deployment program at the utilities and during the second quarter we invested $1.4 billion of capital to the benefit of our customers. We expect to exceed our capital plan in $5.3 billion by $100 million this year. We have been able to take advantage of the favorable weather, so fund investments in our gas business at BG&E, plus we had some additional storm-related work. As Chris mentioned, these investments are improving our infrastructure, increasing reliability and resiliency, which results in a better customer experience. Today I'd like to talk about two projects that are part of these efforts and will bring improved operations to our customers in DC and Northern Illinois. The first project is District of Columbia Undergrounding project or DC PLUG. A DC PLUG initiative is a $500 million multi-year partnership between the District's Department of Transportation and Pepco focused on the underground placements of more vulnerable distribution power lines. Over the course of the initiative, up to 30 feeders where replaced underground with six during the first phase. The underground placement of these lines will make the electric distribution system more resilient during severe weather events, reducing the duration and frequency of electric outages. The second project featured is the expansion of ComEd Itasca Substation, this $48 million projects installed the new distribution terminal and associated equipment, including an indoor switchgear building, three medium power transformers at 12 138kV circuit breakers. The expanded substation provides capacity to power the equivalent of 45,000 homes. It will support three new data centers in the Itasca/Elk Grove technology corridor near O'Hare airport. These customers chose the Greater Chicago area after several years of discussions with ComEd's Economic Development team, part of our continuing efforts to bring additional investment in jobs in Northern Illinois. On Slide 12, we provide our gross margin updates and current hedging strategy as a generation company. Before discussing the gross margin update, I'd want to spend a minute talking about the drop in the illiquid forward power curves during the second quarter, particularly in June. Prices in PJM in 2020 and 2021 declined sharpen. Now I have around-the-clock power prices fell nearly $3 per megawatt hour or approximately $0.11 – 11% in 2020 and approximately $2.40 per megawatt hour or close to 10% in 2021. PJM West Hub prices fell more than $4 per megawatt hour and approximately 13% to 14% in 2020 and 2021 respectively. Jim can cover in more detailed during Q&A, but at a high level we think these declines reflected some combination of the following. Lower natural gas prices, a mild start to summer then weighed on crop prices, which thing cascaded out to the forward curve, which we have seen before. Some market anticipation of plants targeted for retirement looking less likely to retire and hedging activity likely including market participants selling based on changes in the economic value of revenue put options sold or written to support newbuild power plants over the last few years driving down prices. Despite the mild weather and low price environment. 2019 total gross margin is flat to our last update. During the quarter, we executed $100 million in power new business and $50 million in non-power business. We are highly hedged for the rest of the year and well-balanced on our Generation to load matching strategy. In 2020 and 2021 our total gross margin is down $100 million and $250 million respectable. Open gross margin declined $550 million and $500 million respectively primarily due to lower energy prices at PJM West Hub, New York Zone A and PJM NiHub. Mark-to-market of hedges we're up $500 million and $300 million respectively. As our hedge position mitigated, part of the impact of the price declines. We also exited $50 million of power new business in both 2020 and 2021. We continue to remain behind our ratable hedging for protecting and added less than a ratable amount of hedges across our regions during the quarter. We ended the quarter 10% to 13% behind ratable in 2020 and 7% to 10% behind in 2021 when considering gross commodity hedges. Our Generation the load matching strategy remains a competitive advantage, contributing positive margin and providing a vehicle to bring our Generation output to market in a disciplined manner. We remain comfortable with this strategy to hold open market length given the continued strength of our balance sheet. Finally, moving onto Slide 13. We remained committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet in our investment grade credit ratings. Even after June 30 pricing marks given the levers, we have available, we are confident that we will stay within our consolidated at that voted debt metrics in our disclosure window 2019 to 2022. Our consolidated corporate credit metrics remain above our targeted ranges and meaningfully above S&P thresholds. Looking at ExGen, we are well ahead of our debt to EBITDA target of 3x. For 2019, we expect to be at 2.5x debt to EBITDA and 2x on a recourse basis. With that, I will now turn the call back to Chris for his closing remarks.
Christopher Crane:
Thanks Joe. Turning to Slide 14, we recognize the current power of markets are creating headwinds for us. We're prepared to meet them head on and take thorough or thoughtful action if necessary. In the meantime, we are accomplishing the things we committed to do including maintaining industry-leading operations, leading our financial commitments effectively, deploying more than $5 billion in capital across our utilities this year, and advocating for policies that support clean energy. Our strategy remains the right one and we're committed to our value proposition. We continued to grow the utilities targeting a 7.8% rate-based growth in a 6% to 8% earnings growth through 2022. We continue to use free cash flow from the Genco to fund that incremental equity needs that the utilities paydown debt and one part of the growing dividend. We will continue to optimize the value of ExGen business by seeking pair compensation or our zero-emitting Generation fleet, closing uneconomic plants like we're doing with TMI and selling assets where it makes sense to accelerating our debt reduction plans and maximizing value through the generation – through the generation to load match strategy constellation. We will sustain strong investment grade credit metrics and we will grow our dividend annually 5% through 2020. The strategy underpinning this value proposition is effective. We remain committed to optimizing the value of our businesses and earning your ongoing support of Exelon. Operator, we can now open the call up to questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Greg Gordon of Evercore ISI.
Gregory Gordon:
Hey, good morning.
Christopher Crane:
Hey, Greg.
Gregory Gordon:
So one high level question and then maybe one or two in the weed’s questions. And I don't want to ask you anything that you're maybe not comfortable delving too deeply into, but I'm going to anyway. You mentioned the concept of levers that you have full in order to stay on track to generate the free cash flow and credit metric targets that you laid out for us at the beginning of the year despite the fall on the forward curves. And you talked about how you won’t run power plants that aren't cash flow positive. And look, I've covered the stock for a long time and covered the company for a long time. We've been in this situation before, and nothing is ever as good or as bad as it looks in the moment, but can you tell us should this persist? What some of those options are in a little bit more detail please?
Christopher Crane:
Yes. I'll let Joe go through the list of what we've got laid out right now. We've been talking quite a bit about it, meeting on it as we watch the markets. So Joe?
Joseph Nigro:
Yes. Good morning, Greg. Greg, you mentioned one of them. I think we've proven through our time with our financial discipline that we're not going to run power plants in perpetuity that are in economics. So that would be the first lever. Obviously, you've seen us continue to drive efficiencies in our business and continue to look at ways to streamline our costs and we would continue to do that and that would be across our Exelon generation business as well as at the business services company. At our disposal, I won't speculate on what at this time, but we obviously have the opportunity if necessary, to look at asset sales. We do have a small amount of growth capital in our ExGen business. We would look at that and take a hard look at that. And then there were alternative forms of financing. When you think about project financing, you know, they're saying. So I think when you look at it, this is a point in time estimate over our financials. As you said, we've seen the markets move up or down. We're comfortable, like I said; with our credit metrics through the disclosure period and we continue to allocate capital in the ways we've laid out. And if we had to, if this continued, we would look at these levers.
Gregory Gordon:
Yes, I'm very cognizant that some of those plants are large nuclear units in the state of Illinois. And I'm also cognizant that you're having a dialogue with legislators and other constituencies in the state around an Omnibus energy strategy that takes into account and contemplates certain actions with regard to those plants. Can you tell us how that broad that coalition is, as we get into the veto session and whether you think that the state policymakers understand the implications of the lack of necessarily market reforms in PJM and the need to take back control of the market?
Christopher Crane:
As you can imagine, we have a significant communications drive with the legislative and the administration on the situation and we are prepared to present them with the coalition. I'll let Kathleen to describe who she's working with that will balance out the needs for the state, the goals that the governor set after election to get to 100% cleaned by 2030 and be able to do that in an economic way that does not harm our customers. But you want to talk about the coalition?
Kathleen Barrón:
Yes. Good morning, Greg. There are a number of stakeholders that are very focused on getting clean energy legislation enacted in Illinois. As you know, a number of states across the country have already set 100% clean energy targets. And it's not just states like California, New York, it's across the country. And so Illinois has a lot of emphasis on making sure that Illinois, which is already the cleanest state in the country, has an equally aggressive target. So on that question, we have folks in the environmental community have heavily focusing on environmental justice players. The renewable developers are very focused on addressing those flaws in the prior version of the states clean energy targets to make sure that they can achieve the goals that have been set previously. But also as I said, set a more ambitious new targets for renewable development in the state. The consumer advocate is heavily focused on this policy as well because the question of state having to pay twice for capacity has been very much in the forefront, and ensuring that if we're going to incentivize clean energy. We can count our capacity towards our obligations for PJM. And then finally the labor community, very focused on what these policies mean both for new construction and preservation of things clean energy resources. So that's the correlation we're focusing on putting the package together. There are a number of parties who will come together in the end to help – communicate the message that Chris mentioned that this is important for the state, but it's not going to be possible if we can't allow these resources to count as capacity and that's why the FRP is foundational to getting this policy done.
Gregory Gordon:
Thanks. And my final question was actually, a numbers question on the update on the mark-to-market, Joe. There was $50 million decline and how our new business to go. Is that because that moved into hedges because you executed sales or are you assuming either lower volumes or lower margins in the out years significantly retail business?
James McHugh:
Hi Greg. Yes. This is Jim McHugh. That is just executed. That's executed business that now has moved into the mark-to-market of hedges. So when you net that all together, that numbers – those two lines would be flat from last quarter, it's just executed now.
Gregory Gordon:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Steve Fleishman of Wolfe Research. Your line is open.
Steven Fleishman:
Yes, thanks. I got -ups to both the Greg's question. So first of all, just I know in the past when prices have fallen a lot and certain times you've talked about actually how much money losing plants there are and potential offsets. Can you give any flavor on that on just, hey, if prices stay this low, if we shut certain plants or generally shut plants, what the potential offset could be?
Christopher Crane:
If you're asking in market prices, we don't calculate the effect of uneconomic plants being shut down on the effect of the market. If you're asking about the effect of removing the negative free cash flow, we haven't got those numbers to be published right now. It's something that we're looking at, but we're trying to evaluate, unit by unit and then in aggregate, as we've said publicly right now, you can see a challenge in the future if this market persists between the capacity and the energy market that Dresden, Byron, and Braidwood are financially challenged. Now do you think we've got a clear path that that with good coalition to support, fixing that at some of it at the state level and we still are working very hard with PJM for FERC to continue on base-load scarcity in the capacity market reforms that should correct, and make a fair market. So, but short of those things happening, those three sites, you can look into the future and see the challenges that they have.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay. And then I guess that the point there is if we're just using current forwards and taking it down that we're including basically losses on plants that you would not just sit and take forever.
Christopher Crane:
Right.
Joseph Nigro:
Correct.
Christopher Crane:
That's right.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay.
Joseph Nigro:
Either we have a clear path to securing them or the units will be shut down. We will not damage the balance sheet, sitting around for years with negative free cash flow or negative earnings.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay. And then just specific question to the Illinois coalition, can you just give any color if possible that since this news from a few weeks ago came out about the subpoena. Has there been any – have these talks or continued and is there any kind of public process we'll be able to see kind of those talks? Or is it just going to kind of be suddenly in legislative proposal?
Joseph Nigro:
Steve, [indiscernible] the activity that has started and continued for a number of months on advancing the clean energy legislation among the coalition that was referenced by Kathleen and by Chris remains unchanged. We're meeting regularly, we're doing the stakeholder outreach, we're trying to craft a package and educate members of the legislature. And dependency of the grand jury and subpoenas had no impact on the level of activity or the intensity of the activity in that regard.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Chris Turner of JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Christopher Turner:
Good morning. I was wondering if you could just help us with some background of your franchise agreement in Chicago, kind of when that expires, the terms of renewal, et cetera and kind of how you're thinking about that right now.
Ann Berzin:
Well, I'll start. Hi, this is Ann. And Joe to make guesses here as well. But basically the expiration date is the end December of 2020. The city needs to give us an indication by the end of the year as to whether they want to maintain status quote renegotiate or terminate the franchise agreement. So we'll know by the end of the year, but we're in discussions with them, we started to have discussions around that. We understand what their priorities are and there, I think priorities are very much aligned with ours. They want to see more clean energy in the city of Chicago. They are concerned about vulnerable populations, in particular in terms of pricing. And those are all – those are both, strong strategic elements of our focus going forward at all our utilities. But that's the status right now.
Joseph Nigro:
Yes. And just to supplement what Ann said, we've been in the process of these negotiations for some time. We've exchange terms and have detail discussions about, how the agreement would be structured going forward. We had a slowdown in those negotiations during the transition to the new mayor. But those negotiations have resumed in full at this point.
Christopher Turner:
Okay. And right now that is your set of assets and you would need to be compensated if anything changed there.
Joseph Nigro:
Yes, that's correct. But again, the focus here is I'm getting the franchise agreement done. Our expectation is it will be fully negotiated and Dan will address the issues that Ann talked about, to the extent municipalization is what that will come with a very hefty price tag as you know, and I don't think realistically that's a path we're going to go down.
Christopher Turner:
Okay. And then I guess just more modeling here for the balance of 2019, you put out the third quarter guidance there, which was I think a little bit less than we had expected. How are you thinking about the fourth quarter right now and what I guess might look like O&M headwind at least in the back half overall?
Joseph Nigro:
You heard me say in my – it’s Joe, good morning, you heard me say in my prepared remarks that we reaffirmed our guidance, range of $3 to $3.30. That's inclusive of the earnings guidance. We gave you obviously for the third quarter and we're comfortable with those numbers.
Christopher Turner:
Okay. Anything to think about that might be kind of one-time or non-recurring in nature for the third or fourth quarter that could help you year-over-year?
Joseph Nigro:
Hi. I mean you saw some of the drivers in the second quarter when we talked about the lower load volumes that constellation driven by the unfavorable weather and we continued to as Jim sits were talked about. We continue to execute our new business at constellation and we continue to manage the utility business accordingly and we're comfortable with full-year guidance.
Christopher Turner:
Okay, great. Thanks Joe.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Weinstein from Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
Michael Weinstein:
Hi, guys. I just one quick follow-up on the guidance. The guidance for $4.2 billion of cash flow Generation from ExGen over the next four years? What does that assume in terms of uneconomic plants and might be operating or I guess retirement is going to go where to those types of plants? What's built into that $4.2 billion number?
Joseph Nigro:
Good morning, Michael. It's Joe. As Chris mentioned when you just said, inclusive when you look at the three plants in Illinois that he mentioned, Byron, Braidwood and Dresden, those plants are running in those cash flow forecast. And then to the extent, these power prices continue there's obviously challenges financially with those. And as I said in my remarks, we won't continue to run those plants in perpetuity on economically. Having said that, we haven't provided the numbers specifically, but we will. We put out a forecast on our fourth quarter call for $7.8 billion of free cash flow from 2019 to 2022 coming off generation that we're still working with that number.
Michael Weinstein:
So I mean would it be accurate to say that there's upside either way at this point with the forward curves where they are?
Christopher Crane:
We’ll give you an update at our fourth quarter call and you're getting like one side of the story here obviously, because in the numbers we provide, we're showing you the mark-to-market. You see our gross margin disclosures and they change quarter-over-quarter this quarter driven by the price drops we saw in the second quarter. I also discussed their other levers at our disposal. Those are reflected in our disclosures, but you can go back to what we've modeled on the fourth quarter call and that's what we've disclosed at this point.
Michael Weinstein:
Okay, great. Thanks.
Operator:
Your last question comes from the line of Praful Mehta of Citigroup. Your line is open.
Praful Mehta:
Thanks so much. Hi guys. So maybe just following up a little bit on the power markets, it was very helpful to get the levers that you've talked about. But just to understand from a PJM perspective, do you see more happening on the market side as in other players shutting down other plants or other form of rationalization like you also talked about regulation. Where do you see PJM going? Because if it stays this way, clearly, it's unsustainable. So wanted to understand how you thought the market would play out?
James McHugh:
Yes. Praful, this is Jim McHugh. I'll start. I think from a market's perspective, first of all, the one thing, I want to highlight to Joe's point about this as a point in time. We've already seen the Nighthawk market move up $1 on the forward curve since the end of the quarter and the West Hub markets moved up about $0.75 since the June 30 pricing. So we've seen a pickup in prices so far. I think when it comes to what we're working on; we've talked over the last several quarters on the market reform side. Fast start pricing is willing to be enacted. There is some work being done on reserves and scarcity pricing and the ORDC curve in PJM. And then in the long run it's a little bit lower priority right now for PJM, but the focus on the baseload price formation and Entergy relaxation. Those are some of the things. I think we have new build and retirements both happening over the next four or five years as natural course of business and our fundamental analysis. So there will be a little bit of that, but I think, by and large the reforms are around price formation and then in the long run, if we're able to come up with a market solution to have carbon pricing in the market would be another thing in the long run. That would be something we would all continue working on. The one thing that's interesting to me about where we've seen these prices in that $22 area, which you look at Cal 21, Cal 22, Cal 23, that's trading down where the quarter two just cleared. Quarter two Nile just cleared $22.25 with very, very mild weather. So the entire curve is trading where a very mild quarter just traded. It's an interesting note to me and I think it gives us some insight into why we think those prices on the forward curve have already responded slightly higher in the last couple of weeks.
Praful Mehta:
That's super helpful color. And maybe just one follow-up more strategic. If you do see these profiles, does that mean that you think more retail would be helpful to the business? Do you look to expand on the retail side or maybe acquire more retail businesses? Is that something that you think would work?
James McHugh:
Yes. So I think from a retail perspective, our customer facing businesses are doing pretty well. The margins are hanging in, our win rates are strong and we're holding our market share, our retail customer facing business and our wholesale load auctions and wholesale origination businesses have performed well. I think as far as acquisitions and expanding it, we've talked for a while now about having grown really what is the best in class platform. So we will love to acquire books of business, if there is value proposition there that we can absorb it into our best in class platform and just take a retail book of business. We'll look for those opportunities and we certainly would take a hard look at them.
Praful Mehta:
All right. Really helpful. Thank you, guys.
Operator:
I would like to turn the call over back to speaker Chris Crane. Please go ahead, sir.
Christopher Crane:
Thank you all for participating in the call today. We remain on track to meet our commitments to our customers, communities, and shareholders. With that, we'll close up the call.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. You may now all disconnect.
Operator:
Good morning. My name is Lindsey and I will be your conference operator today. At this time I would like to welcome everyone to the 2019 Q1 Exelon Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. Dan Eggers, Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance, you may begin your conference.
Dan Eggers:
Thank you, Lindsey. Good morning everyone and thank you for joining our first quarter 2019 earnings conference call. Leading the call today are
Chris Crane:
Thanks, Dan, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. During the quarter, we achieved success on several key fronts and reached a couple of milestones. First, the U.S. Supreme Court declined to hear the ZEC cases clearing the last legal challenge at the federal level for the Illinois and New York programs. The decision affirms that states have the right to protect their citizens by favoring clean energy and it is a win for the consumers, policymakers and the regulators. Second, we received credit upgrades from both S&P and Fitch. These upgrades recognizes successful execution on our utility-driven growth strategy and reduction in business risk while maintaining strong financial metrics. Third, we reached settlements in New Jersey, on the ACE rate case and the infrastructure investment program. These outcomes reflect the continued positive evolution of our partnership with regulators built on improvement and reliability and customer satisfaction. Finally, turning to slide 5, in March, we celebrated the seventh anniversary of the Constellation merger and the third anniversary of the PHI merger. Each merger has positively contributed to our strategy of increasing our regulated business mix and providing more stable earnings. Before these mergers, Exelon earned a mix of 28% utilities, 72% generation. In 2021, we project that mix will have flopped with nearly 70% earnings coming from the utilities. Through the Constellation merger, we grew our regulated earnings with the addition of BGE and also benefit from the combination of Exelon and Constellation's competitive business creating an industry leader integrated business that supports sufficiently hedging of plans while capturing incremental margins and cash flows. The PHI merger further advanced our strategy to become more regulated, while creating value for customers and communities we serve. We are meeting or exceeding all of our reliability merger commitments and customer across the PHI service territory and experiencing record reliability. The frequency and duration of outages have improved at each utility. Customers are out of power less frequency – with less frequency and are restored the service much faster when out of power. In 2018, Delmarva customers had lowest frequency of outages. At Pepco, customers saw the fastest restoration time. And customer satisfaction is at all-time high at ACE, Delmarva and Pepco. We're also delivering on our promise to be a true partner with the communities we serve. The PHI utilities have contributed more than $470 million in total economic impact since the merger closed. In 2018 alone, these utilities spent $313 million with minority and women owned suppliers, which is between 22% and 29% of each utility's total procurement spend. Each utility has made investments in workforce development programs, including partnering with the District of Columbia to create the DC Infrastructure Academy. We are also an important community partner for hundreds of organizations in the PHI service territory, contributing more than $15 million in financial support and volunteering approximately 85,000 hours since the merger was approved. Because of the improved service and enhanced partnership with our communities, we are building trust in our jurisdictions and are seeing a more positive regulatory environment develop. Since the merger, we have reached constructive settlements in each of the PHI jurisdictions including Pepco, Maryland and DC, and we've had our first settlements since 1980s. Exelon has delivered on the promises we made to our customers and the communities and the shareholders when we merged with PHI in 2016. Turning to our financial results, on slide 6, we had a strong quarter. On a GAAP basis, we earned $0.93 per share versus $0.60 per share last year. On a non-GAAP operating basis, we earned $0.87 per share versus $0.96 per share last year. Joe will cover the drivers in his remarks. Turning to slide 7, at the utilities, we continue to execute the top quartile levels across key customer satisfaction and operating metrics. The investments we are making are resulting in improved reliability, which is strengthening our relationship with our customers and the regulators. We remain focused on helping our customers and communities become more energy efficient, saving energy and money. We have been doing this for years, and I'm happy to say once again the EPA named all five of our eligible companies, BGE, ComEd, Delmarva, PECO, and Pepco as 2018 ENERGY STAR partners of the year. Generation performed well during the quarter. Nuclear produced 39.2 terawatt-hours of zero emission electricity with a capacity factor of 97.1%, the best quarter performance in more than 10 years. During the polar vortex where the temperatures were significantly below zero, our fleet ran at full power keeping families in our markets safe and warm. Exelon power and gas and hydro dispatch match of 97.8% and wind and solar capture of 96.5% exceeding plan. Moving on to slide 8, since the beginning of the year, there has been a number of important developments. U.S. Supreme Court upheld the clean energy programs. Illinois is looking to advance its clean energy goals. Pennsylvania is considering adding nuclear to its alternative energy standard. New Jersey awarded zero emission credits. PJM has made scarcity filing in March with the request approval date by mid-December, and first act on fast-start energy pricing reforms. These actions recognize the importance of preserving existing resources of carbon-free energy, addressing the -- and addressing the underlying deficiencies in the market. In Illinois, legislation was introduced that would require the Illinois Power Authority to procure clean capacity for ComEd customers using that fixed resource requirement mechanism that is currently in the PJM tariff. In addition, to supporting a course of truly clean energy future in Illinois, the legislation will also ensure that consumers pay less than they do today. The concept of the FRR has a wide support and has been endorsed by the Illinois CUB, the Clean Jobs Coalition and organized labor. Another piece of legislation has been introduced into Illinois to extend the formula rate. ComEd's formula rate provides tangible benefits to the consumers as well as certainty we need to make investments and improve reliability and resiliency in customer service, while keeping the bills affordable. In the nine years that ComEd has filed the formula rate, we have asked for rate decreases four times. It's a busy legislative season as Governor Pritzker and the General Assembly tackle Illinois' significant budget problems. However, we are optimistic these two priorities can get done this year. In Pennsylvania, bipartisan group in the House and Senate introduced legislation that would treat nuclear equal to other non-emitting resources by adding it to the ultimate energy portfolio standard. Several hearings have been held in the House and Senate on the bill, but it's not clear the action will be taken in time to reverse our decision to retire TMI. We also achieved two important milestones for our existing ZEC programs in April. First, as mentioned, the US Supreme Court declined to hear the challenges, the New York and Illinois ZEC programs, consistent with the resounding decision we received from the district and the circuit courts. Second, the New Jersey BPU awarded ZECs to all three New Jersey – units in New Jersey allowing them to continue to provide zero-carbon energy to the state. We are pleased to see the states moving forward with thoughtful energy policy that preserves the rights to chart a clean energy future. Finally, turning to FERC and PJM, we are pleased FERC acting on the fast-start reforms that expand the price setting eligibility for block loaded resources. FERC has requested that PJM submit a compliance filing by July 31st and we expect the reforms to be implemented shortly after that. In addition, PJM filed, they a 206 petition to improve the pricing of reserves, which we have previously referred to as scarcity or ORDC reforms. These reforms along with base load price formation are essential to preserve an effective competitive market in PJM, and we're happy to see the programs being made to address these clear needs. Turning to slide 9. Much of the policy work, we've engaged in including preserving zero-carbon generation, we have viewed as necessary to bridge a comprehensive carbon policy, in the past time, not just for the government, but for every business, most particularly energy businesses along with their customers and stakeholders to take action on reducing carbon emissions. For several decades, Exelon has been positioning itself for a carbon-constrained world and acting as a leader advocating for carbon policy at the state and federal level. We have built the cleanest power generation company in the country, we have divested or retired all of our coal generation and invested in renewables and increasing our output of our nuclear fuel. As a result, Exelon has produced more clean energy than any other company in the United States by a factor of two, and out of nine—every nine clean megawatts in the U.S. comes from an Exelon plant. We've avoided 67.8 million metric tons of greenhouse gas, the equivalent of making or taking 14.5 million cars off the road through two previous carbon reduction goals, and we are on track to meet the most recent goal of 15% additional reduction of emissions from internal operations. We're a leading voice in supporting policies and regulations that require reduced emissions and encourage technology changes, and across our businesses, we working to enable clean energy solutions for our customers and communities. In 2018 alone, our energy efficiency program saved customers 21.9 million megawatt-hours of electricity avoiding 9.9 million metric tons of greenhouse gas emission. We're investing in electric transportation and charging infrastructure at both utilities and Constellation. Exelon is also involved in grid scale energy storage development to enable faster and greater reliability for the use of renewables. One example of this is through our efforts to launch the Volta Energy, which works with the national labs and research universities to commercialize new technologies. The world is changing in terms of awareness of the scope of climate change and the need for new potential solutions. Our customers, our cities and our communities, as well as our employees are demanding clean power. So that is what we intend to provide. We still have a long way to go, but the engagements that we're seeing at the state level affirms our view that these policies will be part of our country's future. With that, now I'll turn it over to Joe to continue the call.
Joe Nigro:
Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone. Today, I'll cover our first quarter results and quarterly financial updates including trailing 12 months ROEs at the utilities and our hedge disclosures. Starting with slide number 10, we had a strong quarter financially. We earned $0.93 per share on a GAAP basis and $0.87 per share on a non-GAAP basis, which is at the upper end of our guidance range of $0.80 to $0.90 per share. Our performance in the quarter was consistent with our expectations, including a positive $0.01 of net benefit around timing of expenses. Exelon utilities delivered a combined $0.56 per share, net of holding company expenditures. Utility earnings were modestly lower than our plan due to O&M timing at ComEd and PECO, which will reverse itself over the course of the year. Exelon Generation earned $0.30 per share, outperforming plan. This was a result of some realized gains in our nuclear decommissioning trust fund and favorable timing of O&M. We are reaffirming our full year guidance of $3 to $3.30 per share. For the second quarter, we are providing adjusted operating earnings guidance of $0.55 per share to $0.65 per share. On slide 11, we show our quarter-over-quarter walk. The $0.87 per share in the first quarter this year was $0.09 per share lower than the first quarter of 2018. Exelon Utilities less HoldCo earnings were up $0.10 per share compared with last year. This earnings growth is driven primarily by higher rate base, new rates associated with completed rate -- and lower storm costs at PECO and PG&E relative to the first quarter of 2018. Generation earnings were down $0.19 per share compared with last year. The biggest driver was the absence of $0.10 per share of ZEC catch-up payment from 2017 due to the timing of the final Illinois ZEC approvals. Generation was also impacted by lower realized power prices. Moving on to slide 12. As Chris mentioned, we celebrated the third anniversary of the merger with PHI in March. We have seen tremendous improvement in PHI's operational performance, customer satisfaction, and relationships with our communities and regulators, which is leading to more constructive outcome. Given our progress on the commitment of our 9% to 10% ROEs across our utilities and the quarterly variability at the individual PHI utilities, depending on rate case timing, we are now consolidating the PHI utilities trailing 12-month ROEs. We have also changed the format of the slide to show the relative size of the aggregate PHI utilities when compared to legacy Exelon utilities and the consolidated Exelon utilities. In total, the PHI utilities represent approximately 26% of our total rate base of $41.2 billion. On a consolidated basis, the PHI utilities earned a 9.3% ROE for the trailing 12-months. This is a 90-basis point improvement over consolidated 8.4% from the fourth quarter of 2018. The improvement is due to 2018 distribution rate case settlement at both Delmarva and Pepco, favorable transmission revenue from the higher peak load in true-ups, the roll-off of higher storm costs, and favorable O&M timing at Delmarva and Pepco, which will reverse over the course of the year. At the legacy Exelon utilities, our earned ROEs are modestly better, largely driven by the roll-off of the March 2018 winter storm costs as well as new rates associated with completed rate cases at PECO and PG&E. Including PHI, the combined Exelon utilities have a 10.2% earned ROE, which is above our 9% to 10% earned ROE target and 50 basis points higher than last quarter. We remain focused on meeting our utility earnings growth target by maintaining the earned ROEs at PHI and sustaining strong performance at our other utilities. Turning to slide 13. Since the last call, the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities approved the Atlantic City Electric settlement agreement, which provides for a $70 million revenue increase. The new rates went into effect on April 1st. In addition, the BPU approved recovery of $96 million of capital over a four-year period through the infrastructure investment program to improve reliability. On April 8th, ComEd filed its annual distribution formula rate update with the Illinois Commerce Commission seeking a $6.4 million decrease to base rate, representing the fourth requested rate reduction, under the formula rate design. We expect to receive an order in the fourth quarter. Pepco Maryland filed its latest rate case in January, requesting a $30 million revenue increase, which has been updated to $27.2 million with the test year updated to actuals. The request is based on the continued infrastructure investments to enhance reliability in customer service. We expect to receive an order in the third quarter of this year. More details on the rate cases can be found on slides 21 through 24 in the appendix. Turning to slide 14, during the first quarter, we invested $1.2 billion of capital across the utilities and are on track to meet our $5.3 billion commitment for 2019. These investments will improve the reliability and resiliency of the grid to the benefit of our customers. This quarter, I would like to highlight two projects. The first is the modernization of Pepco's Harrison substation in Washington D.C. This $190 million project will renovate aging infrastructure to more reliably serve important loads including two metro stations. It also expands regional transmission capacity supporting future load growth. The other project is the second phase of BG&E's large gas line replacement program in Baltimore that will be recovered through STRIDE capital recovery mechanism. The second phase includes $732 million of investment and we will replace approximately 240 miles of gas lines by the end of 2023. Replacing these lines will improve the safety and reliability of the distribution system. During the first phase of the program, BG&E replaced 208 miles of gas lines. Since the program started in 2014, STRIDE has created 600 full-time jobs in BGE service territory. On Slide 15, we provide our gross margin update and current hedging strategy for the generation company. As a reminder, our disclosure previously reflected planned retirement of TMI and include New Jersey's ZEC revenues. Since last quarter, total gross margin has flattened every year. In 2019, open gross margin decreased by $150 million, primarily due to lower prices at West Hub, New York Zone A, and NiHub. During the quarter, we executed $150 million in power new business. In 2020 and 2021 respectively, open gross margin is up $50 million relative to our prior disclosure, primarily on the back of higher power prices at NiHub and New York Zone A which was partially offset by lower ERCOT spark spread. Mark-to-market of hedges were down $50 million due to our hedge position offsetting the increasing gross margin and we executed $50 million of power new business in both years. Our generation to load matching strategy continues to yield positive results. We ended the quarter 8% to 11% behind ratable in 2020 and 1% to 4% behind ratable in 2021, when considering cross commodity hedges. Our open position is primarily concentrated in the Midwest and Texas. Given the strength of our balance sheet, we are comfortable with our strategy to hold if the market want. Moving on to slide 16, we remain committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet and our investment grade credit ratings. As Chris mentioned, our working has been rewarded with credit upgrades at S&P and Fitch in the first quarter. S&P upgraded Exelon's issuer credit rating from -- to BBB plus from BBB. In addition, all subsidiaries were raised one notch. According to S&P, the rating upgrades reflect the successful execution of our business strategy, which has reduced business risk while maintaining strong financial metrics. Fitch also upgraded Exelon to BBB plus based on similar reasoning. Looking at ExGen, we are well ahead of our debt to EBITDA target of three times. For 2019, we expect to be at 2.4 times debt to EBITDA and 1.9 times debt to EBITDA on a recourse basis. With that, I will now turn the call back to Chris for his closing marks.
Chris Crane:
Thanks Joe. Turning to slide 17, we remain committed to our strategy and are pleased that our consistent execution is being recognized by the rating agencies and others. I'll close on Exelon's value proposition. We continue to grow our utilities targeting 7.8% rate base growth and between a 6% to 8% earnings growth through 2022. We continue to use free cash from the GenCo to fund incremental equity needs at the utilities, pay down debt, and fund part of our growing dividend. We will continue to optimize the value of our ExGen business by seeking fair compensation for our zero-emitting generation fleet, selling assets where it makes sense to accelerate debt reduction plans and maximizing value through the generation to load matching strategy of Constellation. We will sustain strong investment grade credit metrics and grow our dividend annually at 5% through 2020. The strategy underpinning this value proposition is effective and providing tangible benefits to our stakeholders. We remain committed to optimizing the value of our business and earn -- earnings your ongoing support for Exelon. Operator, we can now turn it over for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from the line of Greg Gordon with Evercore ISI. Your line is now open.
Greg Gordon:
Thanks, good morning.
Chris Crane:
Good morning, Greg.
Greg Gordon:
Two questions. First, can you just give us a little more detail on the status of the bills that relate to energy policy in Illinois? What processes for moving them to vote? And I think you know you intimated that given the pressures on the legislature with regard to other Illinois issues that there might be a chance that this slips from the regular session for the veto session. So, could you just talk through all those issues, please?
Chris Crane:
Sure. And as you pointed out, there is a lot of activity in the session right now, as the Governor prioritizes all of this his issues, a lot of it's focused on the budget and revenue sources. Those bills are moving and being debated as we discussed. He also has a priority on achieving zero-carbon generation fleet by the 2020-2030 time frame -- to 2030 time frame. So there are numerous energy-related bills to get to that point. Our bill for the FRR, and there's one that's path to 100 and then there's one that's the Clean Jobs Coalition. So we're in the process right now of negotiating with all the bills, so we can come together and provide the legislature with coalition that agrees on many things right now just working through the details. We hope to be done. Meetings are constant. I've met with the leadership of both House and Senate, talking about what we need to do and them showing their support for us going forward. And so we're just going to keep working on it as we always do. If it's not done in the regular session because of the other priorities, we will have it positioned to move through during the veto session, that's the generation bill. The other bill in Illinois that will affect Exelon is the extension of the ComEd formula rate for 10 years, that bill is proceeding. We've been able to work with stakeholders to gain support and recognition as I mentioned, out of the nine past filings that we made with the formula rate; we've had four rate reductions. So it's very balanced for the consumer, it's very balanced for our investment strategy and we are able to do so in a predictable way to serve our customers. So that's Illinois. Pennsylvania
Greg Gordon:
Thank you. Sorry, you might as well cover Pennsylvania too, I interrupted you. I apologize.
Chris Crane:
I believe that was coming, so I was going to do it. So, Pennsylvania, as you know, we've been working with the other nuclear operators there to create an alliance to continue and allow those assets to compete in with the other non-emitting assets. The bill continues to garner support and we'll continue to work through that. As we've told folks, we need clarity on this by the end of May or we're going to have to make the final steps and shutdown. We won't be able to adequately procure -- design procure and manufacture fuel for continued operations without that certainty and would not want to make that investment without that. So we'll continue working on it and as you can see the Governor has shown recognition that he wants to have a low-carbon future for the state and all recognize that that cannot be done with the current technology without including the existing nuclear assets. So we'll work on that one and combine with the Illinois effort.
Greg Gordon:
Thanks. And one other real quick one for Joe, just looking at slide 19, It looks like the free cash flow profile mainly at the utility portfolio is lower than you projected, lower now for the year than you projected at year-end by $300 million or so. What's the cause of that because you didn't look -- it doesn't look like you've changed your overall guidance for the long-term cash flow profile of the company?
Joe Nigro:
Yeah, Greg, you're correct, the variance versus our Q4 disclosure is $300 million lower. It's being driven by increased working capital to utilities and we're funding that with commercial paper. I think it's important to note though from a GenCo perspective, on a cash flow profile basis, we're still well -- we're in line with the forecast that we've provided you on the fourth quarter call, I mean I think that's an important element.
Greg Gordon:
Okay. Is that working capital increase a permanent structural issue? Or is that related to things like storms or other things that might flip in future years?
Joe Nigro:
Yeah, it’s the latter. It's more than just the ongoing business itself. And we had some favorable weather points in the quarter and we took advantage of that from a work basis perspective.
Greg Gordon:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith of Bank of America. Your line is now open.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey, good morning, everyone.
Chris Crane:
Good morning.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
So just to follow-up a little bit on Greg's question, can you elaborate a little bit on the scenarios around capacity auction participation, particularly if it happens in August, and I'm thinking that given your commentary in the prepared remarks around the timing of Illinois legislation that it'd be difficult to implement any full FRR or anything else coming out of this Illinois legislation in time for the next upcoming capacity auctions. So I suppose there's a litany of scenarios. How do you think about them, particularly if FERC does indeed act around something else, say a partial FRR, for instance?
Chris Crane:
So, we've put our input into FERC that we believe it's very inefficient to execute an auction when -- with the previous FERC ruling that for PJM to execute an auction in the August time frame with the previous FERC ruling, we actually need to get guidance from FERC on what the construct should be. So we think it should be an April time frame, but FERC feels -- the PJM feels like they are compelled to run forward and hopefully we'll hear something from FERC to clarify PJM's letter requesting clarification. The most likely scenario for an FRR in Illinois would be the 2023 auction time frame from everything we're looking at. We need to get the legislation passed. We need to have the IPA who we've been working with the Illinois Power Authority be able to build the construct and be able to run it. That estimate is aggressive on our side, but probably about eight months our folks have been in communications with the IP agency how reasonable that is, and so we'll continue to work down that path, but to run an auction is going to be potentially rejected without clarification, does not seem like the most efficient use of all of our resources at this time.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Maybe even if it is delayed into 2020, and that is for the 2022 auction, how do you think about the choices before you?
Chris Crane:
Kathleen, you want to cover it more?
Kathleen Barrón:
Sure. Hey Julien, it's Kathleen. As Chris said, we do know that the FRR bill once enacted will take a period of time to implement. The IPA has to write the rules, the ICC has to approve them, then the IPA has to conduct a procurement. And so if the auction is not delayed, there clearly is not enough time for that to occur before the auction if it happens in August. If it happens next April then the bill is enacted this spring, there would be enough time for it to be implemented by, let's say, the auctions delayed to next April. And then the big wildcard is, what if the -- we don't know what FERC is going to do and we don't know when the -- exactly when the coalition, that Chris mentioned, together with the other clean energy package -- packages will come together in Springfield. So we can't really speculate on what would happen, because we have a couple of variables that are just unknown at this time.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
All right. Fair enough. And then just to follow up on the business risk improvement in the credits out of the equation. Can you comment a little bit more about where you see that going over time, in terms of added latitude from absolute perspective and just where you would like to see the credit rating over time? Just perhaps following on some of the recent improvements?
Joe Nigro:
Yes, Julien, first of all, we're happy with the upgrades by both S&P and Fitch, and we continue to work to stabilize the earnings and the cash flows of the company. We talk about how we're transitioning the earnings and the cash being driven from the much more regulated outcome, and we're really focused on that and we'll continue to manage accordingly and continue to take -- work closely with the rating agencies.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Okay, great. Thank you all very much.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research. Your line is now open.
Steve Fleishman:
Yes. Hi. Good morning.
Chris Crane:
Good morning.
Steve Fleishman:
So just, I guess, on Pennsylvania, if -- obviously, something needs to get done there by the end of May to save Three Mile Island, but if it doesn't get done by then, does that -- I mean could something come back later on for the other plants? Or is it -- how should we just think about that?
Chris Crane:
We don't plan on stopping and the coalition doesn't plan on stopping, if the TMI deadline has passed. There are other critical assets in the state that need to be recognized for the governors low carbon future. And so we'll continue to work as hard as we are right now, after the end of May, for the other reactors in the state. So you've got eight other reactors that are very critical that are highly reliable, but their environmental benefits cannot be replaced with technologies available today without any significant cost. So we'll continue to work on it and we believe that we'll end up successful at the end.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Byrd with Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.
Stephen Byrd:
Hi. Good morning.
Chris Crane:
Good morning.
Stephen Byrd:
I wanted to just drill into the Illinois Clean Energy Progress Act a little further. I'm thinking through the procurement process, and I've read through the legislation but I'm trying to understand the procurement process in terms of the clean bundled capacity. Is it possible to talk a little bit more about the generation that would be eligible? The mix of energy that would be procured? I'm thinking about zero carbon versus renewable, just to make sure I understand the nature of the clean bundled capacity that's going to be procured under this legislation, if it passes?
Chris Crane:
Kathleen, you want to go through that?
Kathleen Barrón:
Yes. Thank you, Stephen. The way that we have envisioned this is that the State would be able to conduct a clean energy procurement, as you said, and then any zero carbon resources will be allowed to complete to provide that capacity. And as you know, the bill is not specific about the exact timetable or there -- or other details that we believe are important, including how prices will be overseen by the IPA. And the reason for that is that the reason the Future Energy Jobs Act was so successful is, it brought together a number of parties together towards a common future and what's exciting about this is that FRR concept is integral to all the other clean energy bills that are being considered right now, because everyone appreciates that, is that exact authority, letting that IPA conduct a clean energy capacity procurement and then having the ability to set its core towards the zero carbon future will give it more flexibility than it has under current market rules, where every asset gets the same capacity payment, whether it's emitting or non-emitting. So we have left some room to have that discussion among other stakeholders to make sure that we have the right group who are supporting it and, as Chris said at the top of the call between the Clean Jobs Coalition including this in their bill, the consumer advocates see the tremendous benefit associated with this, we think that's a winning combination.
Stephen Byrd:
That's extremely helpful. Just as a follow-up there. In terms of the state's overall energy mix in terms of clean energy versus fossil, I know there is an objective to move towards clean energy over time, what would that energy mix broadly look like over time, how should we think about that evolution in the state?
Chris Crane:
So you're starting off right now with 60% of the generation statewide being zero-carbon emitting, 90% of that statewide is nuclear. The concept that Kathleen talked about is we would, in the ComEd zone, currently we can account for 100% carbon-free, but we would have a transition period where you would have the carbon-free assets bidding in at a greater percentage each year or being taken as a greater percentage each year as you build into 2030 when the procurement would become a 100% carbon-free. And those details, the finite details there will have to be worked out, but that's the concept.
Stephen Byrd:
That's super helpful and that's all I had. Thank you.
Chris Crane:
Sure.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Jonathan Arnold with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
Jonathan Arnold:
Good morning, guys.
Chris Crane:
Hey.
Jonathan Arnold:
Could I just -- just coming back to Illinois and the discussion about timing, if I understand you correctly, the ability to implement the FRR for the next auction, should the next auction happen in April, that would only be the case, if it passes in the spring. Am I right about that?
Chris Crane:
Yes.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. And so to that, I mean, Chris, what exactly are you saying about the spring session. Are you -- you said you are optimistic in your prepared remarks about this year, and I just wasn't clear in the previous answer if you're saying you think we're more likely in the veto session, or do you think you're still kind of in play for the spring depending on how things go?
Chris Crane:
We are working with the coalitions as hard as we can to have something presentable to the legislature supports to move in the spring. But what I've cautioned in our road shows and on the calls previously, there is a very aggressive legislative agenda in Illinois this spring, they are talking about a graduated tax legislation that is needed to pass for constitutional amendment under 2020 election, the work on legalization of recreational marijuana, the work on the gambling and the sporting issues to continue to increase revenue. Those are the top three priorities. We come after that. We need to be ready to be able to tell our story, communicate and have that coalition that we're building endorsing where we're heading. But we need to be realistic. We do think if it doesn't happen in the spring, we'll be ready to move it in the -- a veto session in the fall.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay, great. So you're not saying it's impossible. You're just making us aware of the priorities and the pullback on the fall.
Chris Crane:
Right.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. And then just one other thing I wanted to ask on the slide 10, you call out the NDT realized gains was one of the driver in ExGen versus guidance, but it doesn't show up as a factor in the waterfall. So could you -- any chance you guys could quantify that piece and sort of explain that discrepancy there?
Joe Nigro:
Yes. The waterfall you're looking at a year-over-year change and the NDT gains in the each of the years was roughly the same.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay.
Joe Nigro:
So there would be no delta on the waterfall.
Jonathan Arnold:
Got it. Roughly how much, Joe, if you are willing to share?
Joe Nigro:
$0.02 -- its $0.02 a share.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay, great. Thank you.
Operator:
That is all the time we have for questions today. I will now turn the call over to Chris Crane, President and CEO of Exelon, for closing comments.
Chris Crane:
Thank you all for participating in call today. I think we're off to a very good start for the year. And so with that, we'll close the call out and thanks again.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good morning. My name is Carol and I will be your operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the 2018 Fourth Quarter Exelon Earnings Call. All lines have been place on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, we will have a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I would like turn the call over to Mr. Dan Eggers, Senior Vice President of Corporate Finance for Exelon.
Daniel Eggers:
Thank you, Carol. Good morning everyone, and thank you for joining our fourth quarter 2018 earnings conference call. Leading the call today are Chris Crane, Exelon's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Joe Nigro, Exelon's Chief Financial Officer. They are joined by other members of Exelon's senior management team who will be available to answer your questions following our prepared remarks. We issued our earnings release this morning along with the presentation, both of which can be found in the Investor Relations section on Exelon's website. The earnings release and other materials which we discuss during today's call contains forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ from our forward-looking statements based on factors and assumptions discussed in today's material and comments made during this call. Please refer to today's 8-K and Exelon's other SEC filings for discussions of risk factors and factors that may cause results to differ from management's projections, forecasts and expectations. Today's presentation also includes references to adjusted operating earnings and other non-GAAP measures. Please refer to the information contained in the Appendix of our presentation and our earnings release for reconciliations between the non-GAAP measures and the nearest equivalent GAAP measures. I will now turn the call over to Chris Crane, Exelon's CEO.
Chris Crane:
Thank you, Dan, and good morning everyone. Thank you for joining us for our yearend 2018 call. Before I begin, I would like to take a moment to thank our employees in those of other utilities who worked during the extremely cold weather to keep our communities safe and warm during the recent Polar Vortex. Our nuclear plants ran at nearly 100% during the week. The investment reliability made on our system made a difference and we had more than 500 crews out restoring service to customers in temperatures that reached a negative 23 degrees without including the wind show factor. I’ll start on Slide 5. 2018 was a great year for Exelon and its operating companies. We executed on our strategy and delivered on our commitments to customers, communities and shareholders. We are in a solid position to continue to bring value to our stakeholders in 2019. Our financial performance was strong. Full year GAAP earnings were $2.07 per share and adjusted operating earnings were $3.12 per share, well ahead of the original guidance range. Joe will walk through the details later in the call. Last year we shared our goals for 2018 and are proud to report we are able to meet those commitments. Utility and generation operations had best performance in multiple categories. I’ll get those details in a few minutes. Last year, Exelon Utilities invested more than $5.5 billion in capital, primarily in infrastructure and technology to provide a premier customer experience, as well as improve reliability and resiliency, which resulted in higher customer satisfaction scores. We are also effective on the regulatory front completing 13 distribution and transmission cases in 2018. PHI was able to reach constructive settlements in all of its cases, including Pepco, and in Maryland – at Pepco in Maryland and D.C for the first time since 1980s. We shared the benefit of the tax reform with our 10 million customers returning more than $675 million on an annual basis. Working with stakeholders to realize timely and fair regulatory outcomes helped us fund future investments in our system and continue to improve customer service. On the policy front, the Second and Seventh Circuit Court upheld the ZEC program in New York and Illinois. Although the plaintiffs have appealed to the Supreme Court, we expect these rulings to stand. New Jersey enacted the ZEC legislation which will start this spring and we are still focused on preserving nuclear plants in Pennsylvania. The Public Utility Commission of Texas adopted the changes to the ORDC curve earlier this year. We are awaiting a decision from FERC on PJM’s fast start proposal and on PJM’s capacity market reform and PJM is expected to file its reserve market reforms in coming months. These policies, each in their own way better compensate our zero carbon nuclear fleet for the value it provides by addressing flaws in the existing energy and capacity markets. We are growing our dividend by 5% each year through 2020 with the Board raising the annual dividend to $1.45 per share on Monday. We are dedicated to corporate responsibility and supporting the communities we serve in an important part of who we are and what we do. As part of our partnership with the UN HeForShe Initiative, we held an inaugural STEM initiative leadership academies for teenagers in Chicago and Washington D.C. 95 girls participated in a week long program designed to empower them through mentorship and creating opportunities to learn about STEM. We are expanding this program in 2019. And 2018 was another record year for employee volunteerism and contributions. Our employees volunteered more than 240,000 hours last year on average seven hours per employee and donated nearly $13 million. In addition, Exelon donated more than $51 million to charitable organizations throughout our footprint. We are committed to providing a diverse and inclusive environment for our 34,000 employees. We were named a Best Company for Diversity by Forbes, Black Enterprise Magazine, DiversityInc and the Human Rights Campaign. We are also recognized for environmental stewardship. We received a score of A minus on both the CDP climate change and water surveys, the highest by any utility for each. We were named to the Dow Jones Sustainability Index for the 13th year in a row and we had a series of commitments for the 2018, we delivered on the task is for 2019 is beginning as big and I will cover those at the end of the call. On Slide 6, we show the impact that Exelon management model has had on our utility operations. Each of our utilities have materially improved their operation since the merger with Constellation or PHI. To put this chart in perspective, ComEd has improved its overall reliability 60% since 2012, the hard work of our employees and the ability to share best practices across a large platform is paying off. In 2018 all four of our utilities ended up in top quartile for safety, or outage frequency performance with ComEd at top decile and PHI matching its best performance on record. Each utility achieved top quartile on CAIDI or outage duration except PECO which missed top quartile by only one minute. BGE and ComEd performed in top decile. BGE and PECO had top decile performance in Gas odor response for the 6th consecutive year and PHI delivered top decile performance for the second year in a row. This level of reliability demonstrates that the investments we are making in our system are yielding positive results for our customers, but we still have more to do to confront climate change and our customer demands. Customer satisfaction was top quartile at, at least three of the four utilities ComEd, BGE and PHI had the best performance on record in call center satisfaction. ComEd and PHI scored in top decile for service level and BGE and PHI had their best performance on record. Our utilities in the Mid-Atlantic operated extremely well in the phase of record-breaking rainfall. D.C. saw more than 5.5 feet of rain, Baltimore 6 feet and Philadelphia, 8 feet of rain during last year. Our safety metrics improved over the year as a result of the actions we are taking to correct course. We will continue to focus on improving our performance in this area. Turning to our competitive business on Slide 7. Our Generation fleet performed very well in 2018 providing abundance of clean electricity that our country needs. In fact, Exelon generated one out of every nine clean megawatts in the United States, more than twice as many of any other generator. Our best-in-class nuclear fleet operated very well last year. Our capacity factor was 94.6 exceeding 94% for the third year in a row in five out of the last six years. We generated the most nuclear power ever at 159 million megawatt hours avoiding more than 82 million metric tons of Greenhouse Gas Emission in 2018. Our average outage duration was 21 days, a new Exelon record and 13 days better than the industry average. Exelon Power’s gas and hydro dispatch match 98.1% and wind and solar captured 96.1% or better than plan. In October, we acquired the Everett LNG import facility and in December, we received a cost of service order from FERC for Mystic unit 8 and 9, which together will allow us to provide fuel security in New England market through May of 2024. Our Mystic units are critical in keeping the lights on during the extreme cold temperatures we saw in January and February of last year. At Constellation, our C&I operating metrics remains strong. 78% customer renewal rates, average customer duration of more than six years and power contract terms of 24 months on average. We continue to see stable unit margins with our power customers and continue to focus on cost is helping us support operating margins. Constellation strength lies in its durable relationship with its customers. That relationship is more than just power and gas, but is built on Consteallation’s unique ability to help our customers meet their energy needs, while also reaching their environmental and sustainability goals. Now I will turn it over to Joe.
Joe Nigro:
Thank you, Chris, and good morning everyone. Today, I will cover our 2018 results, annual updates to our financial disclosures, and 2019 guidance. Starting with Slide number 8, we had another strong year. For the fourth quarter, we earned $0.16 per share on a GAAP basis, and $0.58 per share on a non-GAAP basis. For the full year, we earned $3.12 per share on a non-GAAP basis, which is at the midpoint our revised full year guidance of $3.05 to $3.20 per share and $0.07 above our original midpoint. Exelon Utilities outperformed our full year plan due to higher distribution and transmission revenues with the early resolution of rate cases at Pepco and favorable weather. This was partially offset by the first quarter winter storms. ExGen performed in line with guidance. Realized gains realized gains at our nuclear decommissioning trust funds were offset by several factors unique to 2018 including higher allocated transmission costs. Overall, we delivered well on our financial commitments. Turning to Slide 9, it shows an overview of our 2018 rate case outcomes. Across our utilities, we received final orders in eight distribution cases. We reached settlements in six of the cases at PECO, Delmarva, Delaware on the electric and gas sites. Delmarva, Maryland and PEPCO Maryland and D.C. which is the first time we’ve had settlements at PEPCO since the 1980s. Additionally, ComEd received a 100% of its ask for the second year in a row and finally in early January, the Maryland PSC approved 78% of the ask in BGE’s gas distribution case. Our focus on improving the reliability and service levels is reflected in our rate case outcomes across our jurisdictions. On Slide 10, we compare the 2018 trailing 12 months blended transmission and distribution earned ROEs to 2017. Our constructive rate case results and the roll-off of the FAS 109 charge drove the improved earned returns this year. We are encouraged by PHI’s ongoing improvement with earned ROEs improving by 70 to 140 basis points. Exelon Utilities earned a combined 9.7% ROE, up year-over-year. We remained focused on achieving our Utility earnings growth targets by improving the earned ROEs at PHI and sustaining strong performance at our other utilities. We expect that all our utilities will earn in a 9% to 10% range in 2019. On Slide 11, we roll over to our outlook for Utility CapEx and rate-based growth covering 2019 to 2022. Since the merger with PHI in 2016, we have invested more than $16 billion in our utility and plan to invest nearly $23 billion over the next four years. As Chris said, these investments are improving our system reliability, service experience by our Utility customers and preparing us for the future. As a reminder, the CapEx budgets we share with you reflects identified and approved projects. As we move through time, we generally find more investments due to additional system needs. When we compare our 2019 to 2021 CapEx outlook, versus the same period last year, we plan to invest an additional $1.5 billion of CapEx for the benefit of our customers. This additional capital is spread across our utilities with the biggest increase at our largest utility ComEd. Since the PHI merger, we have added nearly $6 billion in rate base across the utilities. Over the next four years, we will grow our rate base 7.8% annually to $50.7 billion, adding $13.1 billion to rate base by 2022 or the equivalent of adding a utility almost the size of ComEd without paying a premium, issuing equity or obtaining merger approvals. Rate base is growing slightly faster than the 7.4% growth we projected last year. As a reminder, the bulk of our rate base growth is covered under either formula rates or mechanisms like capital trackers. These support our ability to make additional investments to strengthen our system and have the opportunity to earn a fair and timely return on our capital where we do not have these mechanisms; we will continue to work with stakeholders to establish more timely recovery tools. In the appendix, we provide a more detailed breakdown of the capital and rate base outlook for each utility starting on Slide 22. As you turn to Slide 12, we continue to forecast strong Utility less holding company EPS growth of 6% to 8% even for the elevated – even from the elevated 2018 starting point, where we executed the midpoint of our guidance range – we exceeded the midpoint of our guidance range by $0.09 per share. Compared to last year, the outlook for 2019 to 2021 has improved with all bands increasing by $0.05 per share. The durability of our industry-leading earnings growth reflects a combination of strong rate base growth to support system needs for more digital economy and growing environmental goals along with concerted efforts to manage loss and a focus on modest customer bill inflation. On Slide 13, we provide our gross margin updating current hedging strategy at the Generation company. There is no change in total gross margin in 2019 from our last disclosure. Open gross margin increased $50 million due to improving spark spreads at ERCOT, as well as higher prices at New York Zone A and NiHub, which were offset by our hedges. During the quarter, we executed $50 million in Power new business. In 2020, open gross margin is up $150 million, due to higher prices in most of our regions. Given our hedged position and execution of $100 million of new business, total gross margin increased by $50 million since last quarter. We are showing you 2021 for the first time today, which is down $250 million compared to 2020. The decline reflects lower power prices in PJM and ERCOT, plus lower capacity revenues in New England and PJM. Our Power and non-Power new business To Go numbers for 2021 are consistent with prior years. I should point out that these disclosures are based on 12/31 pricing and do not reflect any impacts from recently approved ORDC curve changes in Texas. We remain behind our ratable hedging program in all years. We ended the year 9% to 12% behind ratable in 2019 and 8% to 11% behind ratable in 2020 while we are $0.02 to $0.05 – 2% to 5% behind ratable in 2021. When considering cross-commodity hedges, our open market length is primarily concentrated in the Midwest in Texas. We are comfortable maintaining a more open position given our balance. Slide 14 shows our O&M and capital outlook at Generation. Our O&M forecast has been updated since our third quarter call, primarily to reflect increased pension expense and the acquisition of the Everett Marine Terminal that serves our Mystic units. Like the others, the returns on our pension investments did not meet our planned returns resulting in increased cost going forward. In total, these updates have added $75 million in O&M costs or about a 6% - or $0.06 per share drag in 2019 through 2021. However, even with these cost pressures, we expect to see a 1% annual decline in O&M over the next four years. Compared to our previous disclosure, our 2019 to 2021 CapEx is up modestly. In 2019, due to timing delays for our Midway plants and some retail customer-sited solar. In 2020, with modest increases in nuclear fuel cost related to the rising uranium prices where we had hedged with colors. We continue to look for ways to be more efficient in how we work and spend while maintaining the safety and reliability of our fleets. Slide 15 rolls over to ExGen’s available cash flow outlook for 2019 through 2022. We expect cumulative available cash flow to be $7.8 billion, which is $200 million higher than our previous four year outlook. We will use the available cash flow from ExGen to primarily fund the increased utility investment, pay down debt, and cover a small portion of the dividend. We will invest approximately $600 million in growth capital which is primarily customer-sited solar projects at Constellation and as I mentioned the completion in the West Medway plant in New England this quarter. As I mentioned earlier, we have identified additional capital investment at our utilities. As a result, we have significantly increased the amount of equity going into the utilities from ExGen by $700 million to a range of $4 billion to $4.4 billion. We will use between $300 million and $500 million of ExGen’s free cash flow to fund the dividend not covered by the utilities. As utilities continue to grow, ExGen’s portion of the dividend decreased as even as the dividend itself grows. Finally, we have planned to retire between $2.2 billion and $2.8 billion of debt with our strong credit metrics exceeding our internal targets, we felt it made more sense to shift cash, plans for debt reductions to instead support the higher value-added and need investments at our utilities. A big part of our value proposition is our unique ability to redeploy strong free cash flow from generation to fund Utility growth without needing to go to the equity markets. This remains a differentiated advantage to our peers. Moving on to Slide 16, we remain committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet and our investment-grade credit ratings. We are comfortably ahead of our corporate targets for FFO to debt and well above the agency’s downgrade thresholds. As you are aware, Exelon and its operating companies are on credit watch positive at both S&P and Fitch. Looking at ExGen, we are well ahead of our debt-to-EBITDA target of three times in 2019. We expect to be at 2.4 times debt-to-EBITDA and 1.9 times debt-to-EBITDA on a recourse basis. We are actively following the PGE bankruptcy process. PGE is a sole off-taker of our Antelope Valley Solar Ranch or AVSR facility which was funded by Exelon DOE loans and project financing at our non-recourse to Exelon. We, along with other owners of renewable generation under contract with BG&E recently received a FERC order affirming the Commission’s role to approve any modifications to existing PPAs which BG&E has challenged in the bankruptcy court. We will remain diligent in protecting the contractual value of AVSR and the role what assets like ours have in California’s clean energy future. From an earnings perspective, AVSR provides $0.03 per share to Exelon in operating earnings and is not significant to our credit metrics given the non-recourse project nature. Finally, I will conclude with our 2019 earnings guidance on Slide 17. We are providing 2019 adjusted operating earnings guidance of $3 to $3.30 per share. Growth in earnings at the utilities is driven by the continued increase in rate base as we deploy capital for the benefit of our consumers, last year’s completed rate cases and improvements in PHI’s ROEs. The decline in Generation earnings is a combination of normalized Illinois ZEC revenues as we recognized $0.11 of 2017 Illinois ZEC revenues in the first quarter of 2018 and lower realized energy prices which are partially offset by increased ZEC revenues in New Jersey and New York as well as fewer planned nuclear outages. As you think about our 2019 earnings, the most notable new updates include, the $0.05 per share increase to our Utility earnings band, the $0.02 to $0.03 of pension expense at ExGen due to worst than expected plant performance in 2018, as well as a roughly $0.03 per share drag from the recent Everett LNG facility acquisition, which represents a negative near-term impact, but is a positive value driver in the future with the Mystic cost to service contract beginning in 2022. These impacts are reflected in our O&M and other expense data in the appendix. We expect first quarter operating earnings to be in a range of $0.80 to $0.90 per share. More detail on the year-over-year drivers by operating company can be found in the appendix starting on Slide 61. I will now turn the call back to Chris for his closing comments.
Chris Crane:
Thanks, Joe. Turning to Slide 18, I want to discuss our key focus areas for 2019. We will continue to deliver operational excellence across our businesses focusing on modernizing the grid and improving the customer experience at our utilities and running our generation fleets safely and reliably. We will meet or exceed our financial commitments including achieving earnings within our guidance range and maintaining our investment-grade rating. At the Utilities, we will prudently and effectively deploy $5.3 billion of capital to benefit our customers and we will file rate cases with the goal of achieving the 9% to 10% earned ROEs across Exelon Utility families by year end. Building upon successes in Delaware, D.C., Maryland and Pennsylvania, we will advocate for policies in our state legislatures and our commissions that will enable the utility of the future and help meet the needs of our customers. At Generation, a number of our nuclear plants are economically challenged due to market flaws that failed to value zero carbon nuclear energy for its environmental and grid resiliency benefits. As you know, we plan to retire TMI later this year and as a reminder, all of the Dresden and portions of the Braidwood and Byron plants did not clear last year’s PJM auction. We will continue to engage with stakeholders on state policies while advocating broader market reforms at the Federal level. We will support PJM price formation changes like fast start and reserve market reforms with our states to implement the expected FERC order on PJM capacity reforms and preserve the authority of our states to advance their clean energy policies and continue our efforts to seek fair compensation or zero emitting nuclear plants. We will continue to grow our dividend at 5% annually through 2020 and we will be a partner and ally in the communities we serve. Being a good corporate citizen for our customers, communities and employees is key to who we are. Finally, turning to Slide 19, I will close on the value proposition that highlights our strategy and our commitment to shareholders. We have updated some of the numbers, but the proposition remains the same. We will continue to focus on growing our utilities targeting a 7.8% growth - rate base growth and a 6% to 8% earnings growth through 2022 rolling forward another year at above the Group trajectory. We continue to use free cash flow from ExGen to fund incremental equity needs of the utilities, pay down debt, and fund part of the growing dividend. We will continue to optimize value of our GenCo business by seeking fair compensation for zero emitting generation fleet, selling assets where it makes sense to accelerate debt reduction plans and maximizing value through the gen to load match strategy at Constellation. We will sustain strong investment-grade metrics and we will grow the dividend annually of 5% through 2020. This strategy underpins this value proposition is effective in providing tangible benefits for our stakeholders. We are well positioned for growth to capture additional upside though needed policy and market reforms are required. We are very confident about the prospects for Exelon in 2019 and beyond and we remain committed to optimizing the value of our business and earn your ongoing support at Exelon. With that operator, we can now open the call up to questions. Thank you.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question this morning comes from Greg Gordon from Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.
Greg Gordon :
Thanks. Good morning.
Chris Crane:
Hey, Greg.
Greg Gordon :
On the Utility side of the business, obviously, pretty meaningful increase in capital opportunities across the entire set of companies. What’s the expected bill impact of the increase in spending? And as you look at the long-term and how much more sort of customer experience enhancing types of capital programs are you contemplating that are also affordable as we think about the opportunity, not just this year to execute on this new capital plan, but to continue to evolve your plan.
Anne Pramaggiore:
Good morning, Greg. It’s Anne Pramaggiore. I will start with your first question. We – when we put our capital plans together, LRPs each year we look at what the needs are in front of us. We challenge ourselves on O&M and if you can look at the O&M trajectory, it’s about 0.3% increase over that four year period. And we always look at affordability. And we’ve got eight bills on the distribution rate side and four of them – excuse me, three of them are roughly flat over that period that we’ve showed you. Four of them are trending less than inflation and one of them will come in right at inflation and that’s a combination of managing our O&M and also our energy efficiency programs which are becoming a bigger and bigger part of our package here. So, that’s basically what we are looking at in terms of affordability. The other question that we ask ourselves is, are there vulnerable groups inside that average that we look at in terms of billing and rates. And we – so, we’ve been looking hard at the low income side and a lot of our initiatives include enhanced low income programs along with it. So, that’s what we are looking at in terms of affordability, bills that are staying at or well below inflation and also looking at low income. In terms of looking forward, we think about investment in really three buckets. One is, reliability and resiliency, just the core basics and improving the material condition of our systems, the safety of our systems and as the economy changes, and we’ve got more and more parts of the economy leaning on the electric system, how do you ensure that that’s reliable and resilient. The second area is, really adapting to renewables and distributed generation. We’ve got a lot of flexibility and dynamism to add to the grid in order to be able to deal with the kinds of changes that we will see in terms of supply coming from many different places and many different actors and demand being much more volatile. So, thinking about sensors on the system, artificial intelligence, distributed intelligence on the system that allow us to move operations on our assets from 16 to 18 cycles down to 6 to 8 cycles, that sort of thing. And then the last area is really thinking about electrification of transportation and what we need to do the system to – in expectation of that kind of shift. So those are the areas that we think about and look out. We watch our stakeholders very closely. We are starting to see legislation and policy come out of D.C. in December, big piece of policy there. The Pennsylvania came out with a clean energy and greenhouse gas reduction, executive order in January. And so we watch what our stakeholders and our policymakers are telling us and how they are directing us.
Greg Gordon :
Great. Thanks. And I’ll ask one more and then go to the back of the queue. Joe, I know that you were focused on the strong 2018 performance and the 2019 outlook. But I think it’s sort of déjà vu all over again with people just focused on the 2021 rollout of sort of the guidance pieces for ExGen. And once again we see as we have in prior years, pretty significant backwardation and what the current state of players for the earnings outlook for ExGen based on the algebra you gave in the deck, it’s $0.20 headwind on total gross margin, probably a $0.05 offset through prudent O&M. But still much like we’ve seen in past updates that are sort of two years forward. There looks today, significant pressures on ExGen margin, what can you tell investors about how you feel about that as you think you roll into real-time over the next two years?
Joe Nigro:
Hey, Greg. I appreciate the question. The first thing is, we are not in the business of giving EPS guidance beyond the prompt here, but having said that, I think as you’ve seen through time, our earnings have improved each year when you look at forward years and by the time we get to those in the realized time period. When you look at the gross margin in 2021 versus 2020, there is a – the two big drivers very simply are, as you mentioned, one is the backward-dated price curve and obviously, for us the biggest impact is at NiHub and West Hub and Jim could talk for a while about what we are doing. We are aggressively managing our portfolio. You see that were behind our ratable plan. Actual spot prices last year obviously, were very, very strong. And then, secondly, Kathleen and her team are working very aggressively on policy reforms as well as PJM and others. So, I don’t think this story has been fully written there and obviously we have a very large open position. The second piece of it is driven really by capacity and some of it’s in New England where the prices were lower year-over-year and in PJM where we had lower volumes clear year-over-year. But from my lens, I think, the strength of our balance sheet affords us strategic and operational flexibility and hedging is – less hedging is an example of that and t through time, we’ve continued to improve our earnings and we will continue to work hard to do that in 2021.
Greg Gordon :
Okay. Thank you guys.
Chris Crane:
Yes, just to add on. I mean, just to summarize that. You have got low or minimal liquidity in those years, 2021 and out – 2021 and out – you build the liquidity as you go through the prompt year in to the next year and you see the curves come up and that’s been the pattern. Until we get these market reforms in, if it’s moving the plants in Illinois or some amount of the plants in Illinois to FRR, so we can get better capacity treatment that matches state’s environmental needs or if you look at price formation that's working through you look at reserve curves being revised, there is a lot of activity going. So, that’s why we are keeping more of an open position. We believe the market will strengthen.
Greg Gordon :
Thank you, Chris.
Chris Crane:
Thanks.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Steve Fleishman from Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.
Steve Fleishman :
Hi, good morning. Couple market structure questions.
Chris Crane:
Hi.
Steve Fleishman :
Hi, Chris. The – first of all in Pennsylvania, in terms of any chance to get to x. Could you give us an update there? And when would something have to happen for you to not have to close TMI?
Chris Crane:
So, the activities that Kathleen is leading with the other operating companies in Pennsylvania are promising. We have some strong support. It’s going to have to move this spring. We have to order a core by May, and we’ve let the stakeholders know that. So, if we can get this through in that period of time, we will be able to save the unit short of that we would be beyond the return at the end of May.
Steve Fleishman :
And is there any sense on what the value – targeted value of the ZEC is going to be in Pennsylvania?
Kathleen Barrón:
I’ll take that one, Steve. This is Kathleen. I think that is subject to discussions that are ongoing among the lawmakers now. So we don’t have an estimate for you on how the program will look. How it will be priced. Those are discussions that are progressing as Chris said with some promising outlook.
Steve Fleishman :
Okay. And then, just, have to ask and probably hard to answer. Just, any better sense of where FERC may come out on the capacity market reforms? Is there any hinge from the changes at FERC and what happened with the New England auction and things like that where you might have a better idea?
Kathleen Barrón:
I’ll take that one, as well. I don’t think we have a better idea than we did on our last call of how they are going to come out. Clearly, there has been some delay in the schedule and I think that’s a function of the transition at FERC. The unfortunate death of the Chairman integrating a new Commissioner, Commissioned with floor announcing her plans for retirement. So, while they have been able to get out a number of important orders others have lagged and the capacity market order among them. So, I think, as we are doing as you are doing, looking at the key leads and trying to make an estimate of where we think things will land but we really have no single yet from them as to when we will see their final decision in that docket.
Steve Fleishman :
Okay. Great. Thank you.
Chris Crane:
Thanks.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith :
Hey, good morning. Can you hear me?
Chris Crane:
Yes. Hear you well. Good morning.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith :
Excellent. Congratulations again. I wanted to follow-up a little bit more on the utilities side, can you walk through some of the more specific dynamics for the longer-dated 22 year. I mean, that’s just a pretty impressive jump at the end there. What exact dynamics? And also what kind earned ROEs are you embedding out there within the ranges? I mean, just perhaps once you get the 22, what are we going to talking about with respect to the position of the utilities and also rate case schedule et cetera?
Anne Pramaggiore:
Hi, Julien. It’s Anne Pramaggiore. Let me start by giving you sense of what the investment patterns look like and what sort of – I think driving the trending that you are seeing and then, between Joe and I we’ll talk about the ROEs. So, we are – there is a couple of things that are happening there. One is the things that we have done in the last year. So we’ve gone through and accelerated our Gas main replacement program as we move them from 30 years to 20 years. And so, you are seeing an acceleration of the Gas investments. So, that’s one of the pieces that you are seeing trending there. One of the things that we are doing at PECO now is we are looking at some material conditions upgrades. But we are also doing a program to upgrade 4 KV feeders to 12 KV feeders in anticipation of more and more distributed generation coming on the system. You just can’t put that stuff on the kind of some of the feeders we’ve got in place in right now. So that’s one of the areas we are looking at. And another program at PECO is, really enhancing the underground replacement program. Again, underground cable program. Again, some material condition work. I think you are pretty familiar with the – most of the PHI work we’ve got, D.C. plug that we are getting started and we also are looking at some work potentially coming through off of the new legislation that was passed in December. At BG&E, we’ve got some new EV investment that’s coming through after the order that just came out of the commission. So, some additional capital investment there. At ComEd, we are expanding the distribution automation program that we have in place. We are doing some more underground cable work and starting to invest across the utilities on security investments. We got about a program for security on our substations and cyber security, that’s about $900 million across the utilities over that period and some investment in some of our IT systems to get ready for, again, more flexible dynamic grids. So those are – I think some of the things that you are looking at that's driving that capital trend.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith :
And just to jump on quickly in that, what’s driving that uptick from 21 to 22 though? What are the dynamics there, specifically? That’s a pretty big jump.
Joe Nigro:
Julien, it’s Joe. Good morning. Specifically to your question, the jump from 21 to 22, Anne went through at each of the utilities the investments that we are making in the rate base. That compounding of that investments is one component of it. The second thing is we have a rate case in PECO in 2021 that has benefits in 2022 and then the third thing is there is additional spending under the formula rate at ComEd. So, those three things together gets you to that outcome.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith :
Excellent. All right. And then, turning back to the other side of the business real quickly. Can you talk a little bit about Everett and the contribution on the ExGen side? As you see that cost of service kick in 2022? And then also, how do you think about that asset has aligned, even at Mystic we are ultimately be pulled out of the market, how do you think about the LNG asset itself contributing kind of more structurally even?
Joe Nigro:
Yes, I think, first of all, Julien, we acquired the Marine Terminal in Q4. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, the acquisition is earnings negative from 2019 to 2021 driven by the increased O&M amounts with about half of the $75 million increase in O&M or $0.03 a share being driven by Everett. The gross margin from the facility is included in our open gross margin calculation in our hedge disclosure and isn’t really material. What I would say is, obviously the Mystic cost of service contract arrangement begins in 2022 and effectively the whole thing is bundled and it becomes accretive at that time. We committed, we had a capacity commitment prior to the last auction and we were committed to honoring that commitment and one way to do that was to acquire the facility. We were also very clear – to your question about how would we treat it in the future? We are very clear that with any type of asset that is economically viable, we are going to work for solutions and ways to try to make that asset viable. But I think you’ve seen with our financial discipline that when we’ve had to, we’ve taken the stance of making the necessary change.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith :
Excellent. Thank you very much. Congrats again.
Joe Nigro:
Thanks.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Michael Weinstein from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Michael Weinstein :
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question.
Chris Crane:
Hi, Michael.
Michael Weinstein :
Hey, just to be clear on the ROEs at PHI, you are saying that for all of 2019 you will be at the 9% to 10% range or are you going to be – or is that like a runrate at the end of the year?
Joe Nigro:
That will be - by the end of the year, we will be in that range of 9% to 10% and effectively that will be the trailing 12 months at that time.
Michael Weinstein :
Gotcha, okay. And then, on the ORDC, I understand that’s a dynamic issue and you are not going to provide a point number on that, but is one of the things we’ve tried to estimate it ourselves here around $25 million, perhaps of improvements for Exelon. I am just wondering if that’s in the right ballpark. Perhaps you can give some kind of hands as to where what kind of impact you are thinking this might have on you?
Jim McHugh:
Right. And to be clear – hi, it’s Jim McHugh, Michael. To be clear, we are talking about ERCOT?
Michael Weinstein :
Yes.
Jim McHugh:
Okay, ERCOT ORDC, it is hard to put a pinpoint on a number on it. The way we are looking at it right now is, even before the ORDC change, we’ve been talking about the tighter reserve margins. And you’ve seen the CDR reports and we are in agreement with where they are coming in now. The reserve margins for this upcoming, somewhere look like they are somewhere between 7% and 8%. So, I think with the ORDC changes, you are just making the likelihood that scarcity is going to play a bigger role in where the summer prices go. We’ve seen the forward market move up since the end of Q3 about $15 for summer on peak. Over the last month so, it’s been more up and down and maybe a little higher, but more flattish. So, I think the market has been moving around its expectation of just how many scarcity hours there is going to be, which – to your point is the hard to predict. Obviously, it depends on where coincident or high loads with generation outages are variable win. The one way to think about it perhaps is, a single hour at $9000 is a dollar on the CAL ATC price. It's about $13 or $14 on the summer on peak price. So, I think what we are going to see the market do is really trade on a pretty volatile range as the assessment of how many scarcity hours there may or may not be can drive that summer $15 at a time just by adding an hour or two. So, putting an estimate on it right now is really just say how many hours we think there is going to be. But I think the way we like to think about it is increase the likelihood and sends the right price signal in times of tight market conditions.
Joe Nigro:
And Michael, Jim is keeping a relatively significant open position and capability to extract value as we see volatility occur both in the forwards for the summer in 2019, as well as we will position ourselves well during that summer period.
Michael Weinstein :
Thank you, very much for the help.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Shahriar Pourreza from Guggenheim Partners. Please go ahead.
Shahriar Pourreza :
Hey, Joe and Chris.
Chris Crane:
Hey, Shar.
Shahriar Pourreza :
So, just real quick on the O&M profile change, post 2022, should we kind of assume this is the new normal? And then, as we are sort of thinking about some of the incremental revenue items that’s not within plan that could help mitigate or at least support some of this O&M pressures, especially they are closer to 2021, can you provide some color there? I mean, I think you mentioned, Mystic is obviously is one of it and LNG is another one. Is there sort of anything else we should be thinking about from the revenue offset side?
Joe Nigro:
Yes, the one thing I would say and obviously, we haven’t given you a forecast of O&M, 2022 and beyond, but the one thing I would say, and I made it the comment in my prepared remarks, the cost to service agreement at Mystic kicks in, in the middle of 2022 and that would more than offset those cost to the O&M that we show in 2021 or so. So, effectively, it turns into an accretive outcome as I said in my prepared remarks.
Chris Crane:
And then pension, as you know, the market for 2018 was not great on equities. The December was pretty tough. We got some of that – a portion of that back in January. So, we will watch the pension. We will watch the pension investments, the interest rate and the return on the fund is what will drive the other half of what we saw the increase on this year, so, Everett and the pension. As far as the O&M discipline, we worked through the out years. We are far less than 1% all across the company and you know that’s dealing with labor contacts, at 2.5% wage increases and other inflations forces. So, we do have a good plan on continuing to drive efficiency, hold the cost down and maintain that inflation rate as much lower at the generating company than utilities. But still the utilities are less than 1%.
Shahriar Pourreza :
Got it. Got it. And then just lastly, Chris, that’s helpful. And then, as we are sort of thinking about the ExGen gross margin, I know we’ve talked about in the past maybe taking somewhat of a different approach when it comes to managing the portfolio, i.e. maybe operating some of the units more – from a portfolio portrait, so, like maybe FitzPatrick or Nine Mile, right? Are we sort of seeing any impact from this in your outlook or is this sort of something you guys are still going through internally? And then, I guess, what I am asking is, also beyond FitzPatrick and Nine Mile, is there any sort of things we should be thinking about from taking a more holistic approach to the assets?
Jim McHugh:
Yes, it’s Jim. I mean, if you are talking about New York, I think the way we are thinking about the portfolio in New York is, the capacity and the ZEC payment that we receive in New York has somewhat of an offsetting nature as energy prices rise. So we're in the – out in the outer years. So we are looking to make sure we are hedging our portfolio along the lines of where we think that index is going to set as the ZEC price sets according to the structure, the index structure in the ZEC. So, really there is not much of a shift in our strategy. I think what we’ve been doing is finding opportunities in the nearby year to on the energy side to understand if we think the market is slightly underpriced or slightly overpriced. And right now, recently, we’ve seen a pretty strong move in New York prices and we've been getting some good hedges off in CAL 2019 and CAL 2020 area to take advantage of those higher New York energy prices.
Shahriar Pourreza :
I guess, what I am asking is, have you seen any synergies for having these two assets so close to each other more from – less from a dispatch and hedging, but more from taking these systems, taking the units and operating as one. So there is clearly some synergies in there for owning these two assets so close to each other, right?
Chris Crane:
Yes, I didn’t get your question, first. I am sorry.
Shahriar Pourreza :
No, it’s okay.
Chris Crane:
So, the nuclear team is evaluating that. What they can do as far as management or what they can do as far as warehousing we have looked at combining security of plants. That’s a cost prohibitive item. But they are continuing to drive through that. There is definitely more synergies that we will be continuing to work on there as we complete the integration and the team has time to work through the regulatory process and we have time to make the investments to make these consolidations.
Shahriar Pourreza :
Perfect. And those synergies are incremental to plants?
Chris Crane:
Right. They will be – if the ones aren’t included now, but there also are initiatives that are underway across the nuclear fleet. We are looking at how we centralize warehouses versus having overstock warehouses each site. There is a lot of initiatives underway right now to take advantage as technology advances in – built into the cost savings numbered. Now as an assumption that we centralize engineering since we have much more digital information and we can trend the equipment remotely versus having the engineers in the plant on the site. So there is things like that across the fleet that we are working on.
Shahriar Pourreza :
Perfect, Chris. That’s what I was trying to get at. Thanks so much.
Chris Crane:
Thanks.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jonathan Arnold from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Chris Crane:
Hey, Jonathan.
Jonathan Arnold :
Couple of things. On the O&M at ExGen, just when you look behind the numbers that obviously have these new incremental pieces. Are you still going after the $200 million in additional cost savings?
Chris Crane:
Yes.
Jonathan Arnold :
And $100 million at services that you shared at EEI?
Chris Crane:
Yes, that’s still in the plan. We have line of sight on that and we will continue and just to reemphasize, we are not going off plan on savings or efficiency. Two factors, pension, underperformance in the market required us to higher state O&M and Everett, which reverses out and provides greater revenues in the 2022 timeframe. So, these are the things we have line of sight of, it’s not that the efficiency programs have been taken to pedal off of.
Jonathan Arnold :
Yes, I just want to check Chris, because you are showing it slightly differently. So, thank you for that.
Chris Crane:
Okay. We will get with you to clarify that.
Jonathan Arnold :
And secondly, I see you removed the disclosures on New England and sensitivities and we realized the Mystic contracts out in 2022. But is that just small enough than to make it simpler or something else going on there?
Chris Crane:
There is really nothing else going on, Jon. That we made a decision to collapse the New England region into Open Gross Margin, because, with the changes to that facility and the inputs of Gas and so on, and the associated contract change, the volume of our power generation output is falling. And then, you’ve got the gas acquisition of Everett that we’ve talked about and that would all factor into that EREV calculation and you would see changes that were quite variable quarter-to-quarter. Most importantly, the overall gross margin is very small compared to the total gross margin we provide you in the disclosure.
Jonathan Arnold :
Perfect. Okay, thank you. And then, could – I don’t know, this is timely or not but, Chris any update on sort of efforts to engage the legislature in Illinois coalition building, et cetera. We did notice the bill that seem to be very – renewables-only got floated this week. So I was just curious if you have any comments you’d like to share on that?
Chris Crane:
Yes, it’s very, very early in the legislative cycle. As you can imagine, we work within the coalitions, within the state on what’s needed to continue to advance the environmental stakeholders, the customers and sound investments. So, we have our folks communicating in those coalitions and communicating with the legislative folks. It’s premature to say, what it looks like at the end of the day. But they are at the beginning of the f the sausage-making right now. And we will continue to have productive conversations.
Jonathan Arnold :
In the FERC order, sort of a pre-requisite for actually something happening this year?
Chris Crane:
Not on the utility side and we are looking at other methods on the generation side. The FERC order definitely would be helpful to get out in a timely manner. But we don’t need it. You can go to use the current statute and achieve what we think we can do – want to do.
Jonathan Arnold :
Okay, I’ll leave with that. Thank you, Chris.
Chris Crane:
Thanks.
Operator:
Our final question comes from Praful Mehta from Citigroup. Please go ahead.
Praful Mehta :
Thanks so much. Hi, guys.
Chris Crane:
Hey, Praful. How are you?
Praful Mehta :
Good. Thanks for this marathon session. So quickly on PJM, I guess, one last piece that was left was Fast Start. So just wanted to get any color or a view on timing of when that will come. We’ve been waiting for it for a while at this point.
Kathleen Barrón:
Yes, this is Kathleen. And I think that’s within the scope of what I said earlier on the call. Unfortunately, there are – excuse me, a number of matters that are lagging and that’s one of them. And I think the transitions at the commission have affected their ability to get big orders out. But just going back to the beginning of the Fast Start docket, recall, this is something that the FERC ask PJM to file. So, we continue to feel confident about how it will turn out even if it’s going to take a little bit longer than we expected.
Praful Mehta :
Gotcha. Fair enough. And then, Slide 15, that’s a very helpful capital allocation slide that you provide. In that, if we think about all of these benefits that are potentially coming on the ExGen side, right with Fast Start, ORDC, ZEC, all of them are incremental to the plan. How would we think about the allocation given you’ve kind hit your utility investment targets, you are hitting your debt reduction targets, where does the incremental capital that potentially comes through go in your mind going forward?
Chris Crane:
Yes, the answer in my mind I think is very similar to what you saw with the plan – with the increase at the utilities. Anne talked about the way she is thinking about the three buckets of investment at our utilities. And the benefits to our customers as it relates to those three buckets. We would continue to look at ways as we see projects that are beneficial for that. We would continue to look at investment there and then I think, additionally, that incremental – those incremental dollars continue to provide us operating and strategic flexibility and we’ve talked about what that’s worth in the sense of our hedging and the opportunity to be more aggressive with that and other things. So, we are going to continue to work hard to get those and I think it gives us a lot of opportunity.
Praful Mehta :
Gotcha. But share buyback is not one of those that’s in the plan right now, or contemplated in the plan?
Chris Crane:
Not contemplated in the plan, but all investments are bounced off to share buyback before they are made.
Praful Mehta :
Gotcha. Perfect. Well, I appreciate it guys. Thank you so much.
Chris Crane:
Well, I want to thank everybody – all of you for participating today. I want to thank you our employees for another good year both operationally and financially. So with that, we will close out the call and all have a good weekend.
Operator:
This does conclude today's conference. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Daniel Eggers - SVP, Corporate Finance Chris Crane - President and CEO Joe Nigro - CFO Jim McHugh - CEO, Constellation and EVP Anne Pramaggiore - SVP and CEO of Exelon Utilities Kathleen Barrón - SVP, Federal Regulatory Affairs and Wholesale Market Policy
Analysts:
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank
Operator:
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Exelon 2018 Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. My name is Jerome and I will be facilitating the audio portion of today's interactive broadcast. All lines have been place on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I'd like turn the show over to Mr. Dan Eggers, Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance. The floor is yours.
Daniel Eggers:
Thank you, Jerome. Good morning everyone, and thank you for joining our third quarter 2018 earnings conference call. Leading the call today are Chris Crane, Exelon's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Joe Nigro, Exelon's Chief Financial Officer. They're joined by other members of Exelon's senior management team who will be available to answer your questions following our prepared remarks. We issued our earnings release this morning along with the presentation, both of which can be found in the Investor Relations section on Exelon's Web site. The earnings release and other matters which we'll discuss during today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ from our forward-looking statements based on factors and assumptions discussed in today's material and comments made during this call. Please refer to today's 8-K and Exelon's other SEC filings for discussions of risk factors and factors that may cause results to differ from management's projections, forecast and expectations. Today's presentation also references to adjusted operating earnings and other non-GAAP measures. Please refer to the information contained in the Appendix of our presentation and our earnings release for reconciliations between the non-GAAP measures and the nearest equivalent GAAP measures. We scheduled 45 minutes for today's call. I'll now turn the call over to Chris Crane, Exelon's CEO.
Chris Crane:
Thanks, Dan, and good morning everyone. Thank you for joining us. Flipping to slide five, we delivered another strong quarter with earnings again at the upper-end of our range, which allows us to raise the lower end of our full year guidance. The utilities performed well with strong earned ROEs and largely first quartile operations. As we stated previously, the Federal Courts of Appeal in Illinois and New York strongly affirm the legality of the ZEC. And our focus on cost continues identifying an additional $200 million in gross savings, which are $150 million of that will flow to the bottom line, bringing our six-year total savings to more than $900 million. Combined, this performance demonstrates our growing value. For the quarter, on a GAAP basis, we are at $0.76 per share versus $0.85 per share last year. On a non-GAAP operating basis, we are at $0.80 per share, and again above the midpoint of our $0.80 to $0.90 range guidance that was provided. Turning to slide six, our utilities continue to perform at higher levels across key customer satisfaction and operating metrics. The investments we are making in technology and infrastructure continue to improve reliability, which leads to greater customer satisfaction, and ultimately supporting strong relations with our regulators and our legislators. PECO and BG improved their JV power residential gas and electric scores over the last year with PECO receiving its highest ranking ever, placing second in the residential electric survey. Our customer service metrics is strong. BGE and ComEd are in the top decile for customer satisfaction, and PHI is in top decile for its service levels. Each of our utilities achieved top quartile reliability performance in SAIFI, or outage duration in CAIDI, which is -- the outage frequency is SAIFI, and CAIDI which is outage duration. ComEd and PHI performed in top decile for CAIDI. SAIFI as we've discussed in the past is our highest priority and remains that our metrics have continued to improve since the beginning of the year. At ExGen, in our third quarter was -- excuse me, 39.7 terawatt hours of capacity factor at 93.6%. During the fourth hottest summer in nearly 125 years, we performed at 96.7% capacity factor, and avoided 33 metric tons of carbon. Our gas and hydro fleet performed well, but below plan with economic dispatch match at 95.8%. This lower performance was primarily the result of our CCG's account Colorado Bend and Wolf Hollow being offline because of some turbine blades defects. The blades have been replaced. Wolf Hollow came back into service in late September. One of the Colorado Bend units returned to service in October, and the other will be back in service shortly. It's in the process of restart as we speak. We took advantage of the outage time performing normal maintenance that would have been required to have that shut down for next spring. From a financial perspective, all repairs were covered under a warranty, and the markets impact from the plants being down are well within our full range outage contingency plan. The plants ran very well over the summer prior to the outages, and we're very pleased with the performance of the design and their durability. They remain an integral part of our Texas strategy. Turning to slide seven, as you know, we've had a strong track record of finding efficiencies in the business and driving cost savings, which is why we created the business transformation team earlier this year to focus on our business services company. As part of that effort with additional savings from our nuclear fleet, we are announcing a $200 million reduction to our run rate 2021 costs of which $150 million will reach the bottom line at ExGen. Joe's going to cover this in more detail during his remarks. I'll turn it now to the policy updates from that quarter and start with the ZEC programs. As I said both the Seventh and the Second Court of Appeals dismiss challenges to the ZEC programs in Illinois and in New York respectively. In doing so each court found that the states have a right to choose generation sources based on attributes they prefer such as environmental performance and that these programs are not tethered to the market. The plaintiffs are rehearing an Illinois case which the court denied last month. The rulings were consistent with our expectations we're happy with the resigning information on these importantly stay clean energy policies. In New Jersey, the process for implementation of the ZEC program that remains on track to take effect early in the second quarter of 2019. The Board of Public Utilities has finished his hearings on implementation of the ZEC program and the utilities have well tariffs to recover the ZEC related charges. We expect BPU to approve the changes later this month On the federal policy front, we think that FERC's June order took an important step followed by empowering the states to continue prioritizing zero carbon energy throughout the state-led procurements outside of the PJM capacity module. Number of proposals were filed in response to the order, including from a diverse coalition of which Exelon is a member in PJM. We see all of the major proposals is putting our generation fleet in a better position financially than the current market construct. We are pleased to have followers part of a coalition to support the rights of states to advance their clean energy goals. Slide 22 gives a lot more detail on the coalition, but it includes consumer, ratepayer, advocates, attorney generals, national environmental groups, renewable energy trade associations, public power and the other nuclear generators in PJM. Our proposal will provide states with flexibility to conduct a capacity procurement of resources they list to support for the public policy reasons, and would protect consumers for paying thrice for capacity resources fits straight to a balance and the FERC is looking for to ensure states can meet their environmental goals, while protecting the competitive market. We plagued the comments are due November 6, and it will be important for FERC to issue an order early next year to give the markets guidance going forward. As you know, we are still waiting for orders from FERC on the vast start and resiliency examination. But with that, now I'll turn it over to Joe to walk through the numbers.
Joe Nigro:
Thank you, Chris, and good morning everyone. Turning to slide eight, we had another strong quarter financially delivering adjusted non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.88 per share, which is at the upper end of our guidance range of $0.80 to $0.90 per share. Exelon's utilities less Holding Company expenses earned a combined $0.55 per share. Compared to our plan, we benefited from reduced storm activity and favorable weather in our 00:10:17 non-decoupled jurisdiction including PECO, Atlantic City Electric and Delmarva Delaware. Generation earned $0.33 per share in the third quarter which was slightly behind our plan. The third quarter was impacted by lot of realized lower realized ERCOT prices versus the end of the second quarter, lower-than-expected generation performance with the unplanned outages that ERCOT CCGT as just discussed as well as one at [indiscernible] in addition to higher allocated transition costs. These were partially offset by realized gains from our nuclear decommissioning trust fund. On slide nine, we show our quarter-over-quarter walk. The $0.88 per share in the third quarter this year was $0.03 per share higher than the third quarter of 2017. Overall the utility earnings were collectively up $0.07 per share compared with last year driven primarily by higher rate base, new rates associated with completely rate cases, and favorable weather. Generation earnings were down $0.03 per share compared with last year driven largely by the absence of EGTP gross margins from the deconsolidation in the fourth quarter of 2017, and higher planned nuclear outage days, partially offset by contribution from a full quarter of Illinois ZEC revenues and savings from tax reform. Turning to slide 10, we are raising the lower end of our 2018 EPS guidance range from $2.90 to $3.20 per share to $3.05 to $3.20 per share. We are pleased with the strong operational results at both the utilities and generation businesses that are pushing us up into the upper half of our range, particularly as we have overcome unexpected headwind including the challenging winter storms. Moving to slide 11, improved operation at PHI and positive rate case outcomes are driving better earned ROE. Pepco's higher ROE reflects last fall's distribution rate cases as well as the recent Pepco Maryland with DC settlement that took effect in June and August respectively. Delmarva's earned ROE include the benefits of interim rates came effective during the first quarter with final rates for Delmarva Electric effective September 1, and favorable weather at Delmarva, Delaware during the quarter. At Atlantic City Electric, we saw higher earnings from last fall's rate case settlement as well as favorable weather during the quarter, which improves 12-month trailing ROEs significantly from last quarter. As we have previously discussed trailing 12-month ROEs for all of our PHI utilities should continue to improve next quarter as the FAS 109 charges from the fourth quarter of 2017 drop out of the calculation. For the legacy Exelon utilities, our earned ROEs remained over 10% were modestly dipped from last quarter. Our overall earned ROEs for Exelon utilities were modestly higher than last quarter at 9.6% well within our earned ROE target of 9% to 10% that underlies our earnings outlook for 2019 and beyond. We are pleased with our overall utility performance but have plans for continued improvement to bring PHI closer to the rest of our utilities. Turning to slide 12, we remain busy on the regulatory front. On October 18, the Administrative Law Judges presiding over PECO's electric distribution base rate case recommended the settlement with all parties be approved. The deal provides for an increase of $96 million in annual electric distribution revenues offset by $71 million in tax saving benefits for customers for net $25 million revenue increase. We expect to receive an order in the fourth quarter. On August 9, the DC commission approved the settlement that was reached in April based under $24.1 million revenue deduction after incorporating tax reform May 20 backed on August 30. A final order which received on August 21 to the settlement we reached in June on the Delaware, Delmarva electric distribution case. The case will provided $7 million revenue decrease including the benefits of capture firm for customers. On September 7, Delmarva Delaware entered into a settlement agreement in pending gas distribution base rate case that provides for revenue decrease of $3.5 million including tax benefits for customers. A final order is expected in the fourth quarter. We also have number of rate cases still in progress. We expect an order for BG&E spending gas rate case in January of 2019. As a reminder, the case include the request that $60.7 million increase to its gas revenues for infrastructure investments since 2015 and moving $21.7 million in revenue currently being recovered with the STRIDE surcharge engine into base rate. We expect to receive an order from the Illinois Commerce Commission on standard formula rate case in the fourth quarter. And finally, on August 21st Atlantic City Electric filed a distribution base rate case with the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities seeking of a revenue increase of $109 million and we expect an order in the second half of 2019. The utilities and the regulatory teams are doing a lot of hard work to improve system reliability and performance for our customers and for support of regulatory backdrop that in turn we helping the lift earned ROE source their allocated levels across the Exelon utility levels. More detail on the rate cases that are scheduled to be found on slide 24 through 30 in the appendix. Turning to slide 13, we invested $1.4 billion in capital at the utilities during the third quarter and around $3.9 billion year-to-date. We remain confident in our ability to meet our $5.5 billion capital budget for 2018. This quarter I would like to feature two projects within our portfolio and utility investors. The first is the early completion of ComEd to $920 million Smart Meter Installation program. ComRD installed more than 4 million smart meters in just over seven years, which is three years ahead of the original schedule and more than $20 million under budget. To help put this program in to the context, our ComED installed on average 2,400 smart meters per day over that seven year span. In fact, one of our workers personally installed over 25,000 meters as part of this program. The installation of smart meters on the ComEd System will allow customers to be better informed about their energy consumption that can help them save money and will allow ComEd to further improved it service offerings. In addition, we tried over $100 million in annual operational savings, primarily from increased efficiencies in the field operations, such as meter reading and avoided truck rolls. The smart meter installation program is part of the $2.6 billion Energy Infrastructure Modernization Act Program. The second project I want to highlight is Atlantic City Electrics Churchtown Substation Expansion project in Pennsville, New Jersey. This $50 million projects entailed equipment upgrades for reliability and 230 kV, 138 kV and 69 kV expansion for additional transmission capacity. Construction also included installation up 2.1 miles of transmission line consisting of 59 new structures. The expansion improves reliability for our customers by replacing and upgrading our stated equipment and by expanding regional transmission capacity which has the benefits of reducing congestion to our customers. Turning to slide 14, relative to our last update, total gross margin was flat in 2018 and up $50 million in both 2019 and 2020, primarily as a result of our higher power. For 2018 open gross margin was up $100 million primarily due to higher NI Hub, PJM West Hub and New York Zone A prices and offset by weakening ERCOT spark spread. Total gross margin is offset by lower mark-to-market of our hedging due to the higher price spikes. For 2019 and 2020, open gross margin was up $250 million and $100 million respectively with a higher PJM West Hub prices and stronger ERCOT spark spreads. In 2019, open gross margin was also up on higher NI Hub and New York Zone A prices. Similar to2018, the mark-to-market of our hedging is gambled in 2019 and 2020 due to higher prices. We also executed $50 million of Power New Business in both 2018 and 2019 and executed $50 million of non-Power New Business each year. From a hedging perspective, we ended the quarter in line with our ratable hedging program in 2018 and 9% to 12% behind ratable in 2019 and 8% to 11% behind ratable in 2020 when considering cross commodity hedges where we have increased our concentration. Turning to slide 15, as Chris mentioned, we are announcing another round of OEM cost reductions as part of our continual efforts to evaluate our work practices, looking for ways to being more efficient teams and better in portraying evasion and technology. With this new program, our gross run rate savings in 2021 will be $209 which we will ramp up over the next two years. These incremental savings will come from our Exelon Generation business primarily through even great efficiencies in our nuclear operations and at the Business Services Company or BSC, which is part of the transformation efforts that Jack has been leading. The $200 million of savings with the gross number with about half from ExGen and half from the BSC [indiscernible] and since BSC costs are shared roughly 50/50 between Exelon Generation and Exelon Utility, we would expect our Utility customers to benefit from $50 million in annual savings over time, with the other $50 million flowing through Exelon Generation bottom line. When we include the $50 million of incremental direct savings at ExGen, we expect a $150 million of savings to flow through our bottom line is 2021, relative to our previous guidance, which we show on the lower left chart. Exelon continues to embrace the culture of cost discipline and operational excellence. These costs updates our consistent with these cultural values. If we look at all the cost savings amounts since 2015, we have now reduced the O&M by over $900 million. It's due to hard work of all of our employees, we [indiscernible] every day to run the company more efficiently, while I'm hearing to our commitments to safety, reliability and community stewardship. Turning to slide 16, we remain committed to our strong balance sheet and investment grade credit ratings. And to that end since our last earnings call S&P has placed our ratings for ExGen index one corporate on credit watch positive, recognizing the improvements in overall strength of our balance sheet. Turning to the metrics, our consolidating corporate credit metrics remain above our target ranges and meaningfully above S&P thresholds. We are forecasting ExGen's leverage to be 2.5 times debt-to-EBITDA at year-end 2018 which is below our long term target of 3.0 times. On a recourse debt basis, we are at 2.0 times, which is well below our target range. We will continue to manage our balance sheet at ExGen over time for the 3.0 times debt-to-EBITDA level, so look for us to focus on debt reduction at both the HoldCo and GenCo. I will now turn the call back to Chris. Thank you.
Chris Crane:
Thanks, Joe. Turning to slide 17, as we have shown you, we have a strong quarter financially and operationally. We continue to get stronger on both fronts. This is due to the hard work and dedication of all of our employees every day. We also had important wins and of course to preserve the ZEC programs, and are finding ways to operate more efficiently providing incremental cost savings as discussed. Our value proposition remains unchanged. We're focused on growing our utilities starting at 6% to 8% EPS growth through 2021. We continue to use free cash flow from the GenCo up on the incremental equity needs at the utilities, pay down debt over the next four years at the GenCo and HoldCo and funds part of the faster dividend growth rate. We will stay focused on optimizing value at the ExGen by seeking fair compensation for our carbon free generation fleet, supporting proper price formation in PJM and resiliency efforts at FERC, and supporting capacity market reforms that will allow states to continue to protect citizens from carbon in air pollution, while benefiting from regional markets. We will close uneconomic and sell assets were it does not make sense to accelerate our debt reduction plans, and maximize value to generation to the load matching strategies We continue to sustain strong investment-grade credit metrics and grow our dividend consistently at 5% through 2020. Operator, now we can take it -- open to the call up for questions. Thank you.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Greg Gordon from Evercore. Greg, your line is now open.
Greg Gordon:
Thanks. Good morning guys, couple of questions.
Chris Crane:
Good morning.
Greg Gordon:
First, on the quarter, everything seems really good on the utility side and the underlying operations at the GenCo look decent too, but it was a little squishy around some of those operational issues. Can you just talk us through that and get us comfortable that they're sort of temporal and not structural?
Chris Crane:
Are you talking about the operational issues around the GenCo in the power…
Greg Gordon:
Yes, and Texas, the interruption in Massachusetts, the higher FDR costs. I just want to make sure we can be comfortable that they're not going to sort of run out into the future and impact your ability to get your numbers?
Chris Crane:
Let me start out with the Texas assets. So, I'll let Joe fill in on the rest of it. Those GE 7HA.200, these were the first serial numbers one and two. We were aware as GE was that there was some difficulty with the first stage blades. We had approximated a run period that we could operate the assets before putting in the fix. The fix was already underway and then designed. GE did give us very strong warranties on those assets, and responded very well on the first failure on the one CT at Colorado Bend. We proactively shut the other three CTs down, replace them with the new design, had them back up and running, and as I said, we expect -- we're in the roll out phase now and the start-up phase of the fourth unit, and we feel confident in the design. GE has put us in inspection program together, that will be borescoping after so many hours of operation. They've responded well, the solid engineering confirmed by independent assessments, so we feel that that is behind us. And we'll be able to continue those assets to operate at incredibly high capacity factors and efficiencies going forward. On the FDRs and the other issues, I'll let Joe cover it.
Joe Nigro:
Yes. So Greg, I think first thing is as Chris mentioned the generation issues drove some of the underperformance at Exgen. In addition to that when you looked at how prices in Texas, at the end of June and where they realized for the quarter, there was an impact with the difference there. As you know, the spot market prices were lower than when we walked into the quarter. On the transmission side, the costs were associated with orders for 494 at FERC, and that had a negative impact. So from our lens when you talk about the generation performance both at Mystic and at Ercot, those are one-time occurrences similarly on the transmission side. The favorability was driven on the realized liquid decommissioning trust gains. So I think when you look at it from our lens, you see these one-time items that are driving the overall results.
Greg Gordon:
Great. Thanks. And one follow-up on Exgen and then one more if you let me, looking at the cost cuts, it's really quite an impressive, incremental change, you've got the costs declining from $4.65 billion to $4.175 billion in 2020 and a little bit more in 2021, $450 million savings, but that gross margins declined by $700 million. And so, skeptical investors look at this and say, "Well, you guys are doing Yeoman's job here, right-sizing the cost structure, but earnings aren't getting better." I would argue that cost cuts are permanent than -- and these back-wardated [ph] power prices are hopefully temporary, but can you give us some confidence that there's positive operating leverage here as we move through time and that these lower commodity prices and capacity prices are not structural?
Chris Crane:
We talked about this before that we've lacked liquidity in the out years. It's a softer market. Our fundamentals still tell us that this back-wardated curve is not what we'll see as the prompt years come in. And so, we're managing the book in that manner maintaining as much margin open and using cross commodity hedges to be able to manage that. We will constantly look at driving efficiencies. You can't have a company and operate with any aspect or entity within the company being inefficient. So, driving efficiencies has multiple benefits, but one of them is a reduction in expense, and we'll continue to focus on that as we serve the customer. As far as the market issues, Jim or Joe, do you want to cover any more on that?
Jim McHugh:
Yes. I think the only one I would add about the backwardation of the curve is, with the next couple of years showing 25 and 24 deal like in liquidity we're seeing net retirements of new builds over the next year between 20 and 23 that would lead us to believe that backwardation won't really subside. We've seen stock prices and I have even in some of the lowest delivered fuel price years cleared north of $26, $27. So you know the backwardation to your point is seems temporal great.
Greg Gordon:
Okay. And then final question is you know given that the balance sheet is so strong and that the rating agencies are finally coming around to considering higher credit ratings how much balance sheet capacity does that create and/or does it give you more latitude to have a more aggressive risk management policy and take hedge less and take more of your power into the spot and therefore try to get those better prices?
Joe Nigro:
Greg, it's Joe. The short answer is with that balance sheet capacity we can't be more aggressive. And as I mentioned in my remarks when you look at how far behind we are a ratable plan and when you overlay the fact that we're using gas as a proxy for power we are carrying a very long opening power position in 2019 and 2020, and when we're able to do that think given the strength of the balance sheet that we have. We continue to challenge ourselves in this regard as well. And as Jim mentioned on our use of power, we're going to continue to be constructive in the way we manage the portfolio relative to what we think fair value is in the out years and that leverage on the balance sheet allows us to do that.
Greg Gordon:
Thank you, guys.
Joe Nigro:
Thanks, Greg.
Operator:
Thank you, Greg. Your next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Bank of America. Julien, your line is now open.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey, good morning, everyone.
Chris Crane:
Good morning. How are you doing?
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Good, excellent. So I wanted to follow a little bit up on the utility activities, obviously good progress of THI, and again but I wanted to elaborate a little bit further on this. Obviously the cost reductions of say $50ish million accrued in the utilities. How does that play out in terms of again increasing your ROE, right, I gather the bulk of that would be moving back to customers over time, although clearly you're under earning relative to authorized level still. And then in tandem with that question if you could elaborate a little more on the sort of initial utility CapEx planning, certainly there is growing discussion of legislation in Illinois as well as a litany of other smaller programs. I think you've already alluded to a little bit elsewhere across your utility system?
Chris Crane:
Yes, I'll let Anne take that.
Anne Pramaggiore:
Sure. Good morning, Julien. Yes, so a couple of responses to your questions. As we think about moving forward, obviously we're going to blend $50 million into the LRP over time, and it's not sitting with there right now, but we'll look at that as we do the next LRP iteration. And certainly our focus on O&M is to be flat-to-declining at the utilities and that that's the goal as we move forward to manage that side of the equation. As we think about what we're doing on ROEs and sort of developing that at the PHI utilities and the other utilities, you know the first thing we're doing is to looking at how -- we're filing annually how do we reduce lag? What are the ways is we file it annually, we've got to stay our provision at DPL until 2020, but with the rest of the utilities we'll be filing annually. We're looking at other mechanisms to reduce lag riders. We've got the stride rider in Maryland, disk rider in Delaware and the IIT rider in New Jersey that we're looking to place about $358 million of capital investment in right now Interim rates at New Jersey is helping us to close that lag gap, and we're looking at multiyear rate plan in DC. We've been invited to make that filing, and we'll be doing that shortly. So we've just got an outright provision at PECO authority for the commission to look at that. So that's something we'll be looking at going forward. So those are all the ways we're looking to close in on that ROE number. Obviously, we're looking at lags are biggest sort of currency allowed GAAP that also looking at other disallowances too, but really trying to take enough on the lag. So that's how we're thinking about on the ROE going forward. On the capital side, the question that you asked, we've got - we look at $5 billion a year, a little bit plus north of that going forward for the foreseeable future. We have continuing modernization work at the utilities. PECO afford 12-kV conversions were closer work, at ComEd, we've got the 00:36:31 voltage optimization work that's about $500 million right there. BG&E's got big DaaS investment, and PHI's got a lot of material condition work 00:36:41 refurbishments, substation rebuilds, and that sort of things. We've got $1.5 billion in our gas program over the next LRP period. We've got close to a $1 billion in security programs across the utilities over the LRP. So there's a lot of work to do. We always, always book-ended with questions of affordability, and that's why we stay tight on O&M. And we look at energy efficiency programs to give customers the ability to reduce usage and manage those more tightly. So we're always looking at the affordability side of it and our utilities fit pretty nicely, when you look at the national average on a percentage of income or percentage of proportion of build to income. We're pretty good, we're below the national average on four and we're right at the national average on the other two builds.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. A quick clarification as a follow up here in PJM, I know I appreciate your comments at the outside. Just timing related, how do you see this going down with respect to a, getting an approval out of FERC, but then b, actually implementing the MOPR just real quickly if you can?
Kathleen Barrón:
Hi, Julien, it's Kathleen. I can take that question. As you know, the five comments are going into FERC on November 6 with the expectation that the commission would address the paper hearing sometime in the January timeframe. I think the commission is well aware that the market is looking for guidance. As Chris said on what the rules are going to be going forward and importantly the states need to know what changes they need to make to their clean energy policies to accommodate the new rules coming out of FERC. So we will look to them to provide that guidance in the January timeframe. As you know, we have to leave the auction until August to give states sometime to react, not just your question was specific to MOPR, but important for us is the ability of states to carve out the [indiscernible] they wish to support and to procure them directly to state led procurement that is going to be an important change that we're looking for FERC to make in the next order based on the record in front of them as overwhelming amount of support from all supporters of the stakeholder community and the states. To put that change into the tariff and to give states options going forward to continue to support the clean generation that will help them achieve their carbon reduction goals.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
So you don't see an issue with respect to getting clarity out of the states sometime?
Kathleen Barrón:
Obviously the states have different structures that will need to examine and obviously the states have different structures, that they'll need to examine and some may be able to use existing structure, some may need to adopt new structures, including through legislation. So there will be a in the states where there is a need for legislation a premium on moving quickly. Now that being said, I think it's also incumbent our effort to take that into account and to make sure that they have adequate time before the rules change in the tariff.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you, Julien. Your next question comes from the line of Steve Fleishman from Wolfe Research. Steve your line is now open.
Steve Fleishman:
Thank you. I will actually just ask one question. The PGM from a standpoint of not obviously you have different stakeholders in relative here your states customers, investors et cetera. Just from an investor standpoint and not everyone else, do you see the changes as proposed or as you would like to see them being kind of good for shareholders, neutral how should we think of it, just from an investor standpoint?
Chris Crane:
No, we definitely see this as a positive to create clarity and a more rewarding market going forward. We've lacked the clarity, we've [indiscernible] the times on programs, I think this is where we'll be able to create clarity, capital allotment will allocation will be much clear on what we're - where we'll be putting capital, what units will be operating, and what units won't be operating. So, but we see this as definitely a benefit to the markets which will be a benefit to the consumer, which will be a benefit to the shareholder.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you, Steve. Your next question comes from the line of Michael Weinstein from Credit Suisse. Michael, your line is now open.
Michael Weinstein:
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions.
Chris Crane:
Hey, Michael.
Michael Weinstein:
Hey, two quick questions. The first one is do you think that the uncertainty surrounding FERC and surrounding new rules for capacity and energy taking also some uncertainty is delaying a new build or new start construction plans, if this is going to have an effect on tightening the market going over the next year or two. And my second question, I'll just ask it right now is a public service enterprise group just announced that they're pulling out of the retail business. Is this a potential opportunity for Constellation?
Chris Crane:
First question, new builds are driven based off of market needs in economics and unless we get the economics to support new asset entry, you will get to see what we've seen in the last couple of years, the decline then we have to see what comes out of the resiliency review on how the market values different sources from fixed view. So, there will be an evolution before we'll see a real opening or a market response to the demand need for assets or investments to be made to come in. It's basic economics right now. The market is barely supporting the assets that are operating today. So, why would you invest into new assets when you are not going to get a recovery or return on your capital? Just a second you can…
Michael Weinstein:
Okay, understood.
Chris Crane:
-- into new assets when you are not going to get a recovery or return on your capital.
Michael Weinstein:
Okay.
Jim McHugh:
Hi, Michael, it's Jim here. I can speak to that question. I think you know with the announcements of folks leaving or coming into the retail market, we're always on top of that and looking for opportunities to look for value and acquire books of business. In this case, I think you know if you think it's noted, that they're going to supply their contracts as they roll off. We'll obviously there to serve customers as the number one C&I customer and the number two resi customer in the country, so a lot for the business and they will alone. I think for us, we have that scale, we've developed that scale over the years through acquisitions and in organic growth and our platform is very capable of acquiring new customers and retaining existing customers pretty easily. We've been having a lot of success also just finding new products and solutions for customers in both the residential space and C&I space, so we'll keep taking advantage of those opportunities that are in front of us.
Michael Weinstein:
Great. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you, Michael. Your next question comes from the line as Jonathan Arnold from Deutsche Bank. Jonathan, your line is now open.
Jonathan Arnold:
Good morning, guys.
Chris Crane:
Hi, Jon.
Jonathan Arnold:
Just to pick up on the discussion around the state legislation and potentially not leading legislation, and Kathleen I heard your comments that you know there could be different answers depending on which state you're talking about. But is it fair to say, the way you said today that you think Illinois would have to legislate and then I'm curious, what you think about the state of play in New Jersey?
Kathleen Barrón:
You're correct, Jonathan. I agree with your assessment in Illinois, there will be a need for legislation legislation to adjust those changes in rules. And I think a positive for us is that we are seeing not just here but across the country our growing sentiment among environmental groups and policymakers that the fastest and cheapest path to de-carbonizing is a policy that uses all zero carbon resources. And so to the extent states want to act to increase their clean energy ambition. We would be expected -- we would expect that all assets including ours would be able to participate in that type of policy as FERC for allowing the states to go ahead and procure a clean capacity directly allows them to do so in a way that's going to be able to keep costs down per customers and achieve clean energy goals at the same time. So we would look to that kind of structure to the extent you know the FERC puts this car down in the tariff you know in Illinois. And here in New Jersey given the way that the state law is written there and the authority at that DPU level to do the capacity procurement through the existing BGS structure, there would not need - there would not be a need for a incremental legislation to allow that state's procurement of that to flow through the BGS. So that's why I said I think the answer is different depending on which jurisdiction you're in.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay, great. I was just waiting to see if you provide that on the individual states. So thank you. Could I just ask one quick follow-up on the cost savings, you've obviously laid out how you expect that to be timed the Q3 2018 cost reductions? Can you remind us how much of the $250 million you've announced last year was flowing into Exgen and maybe what the sort of sequencing is there in terms of how those ramp up as we're trying to unravel the numbers I guess is slide 15.
Chris Crane:
Yes, that is in a numbers. I think we're looking for the page now Joe's got it.
Joe Nigro:
The 250 last year all of it is flowing into ExGen, the reductions were taken at ExGen across the platform nuclear constellation in our…
Jonathan Arnold:
And the timing, Joe, is it kind of across the period until 2020 or most of it going to already there in…
Joe Nigro:
2019, you'll get to run rate year.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. All right. Thanks for that.
Operator:
Thank you, Jonathan. That concludes the question and answer session of today's webcast. I'll hand the call over back to Mr. Chris Crane, CEO of Exelon Corporation.
Chris Crane:
Thanks again everybody for joining. Thanks for the questions. Hopefully, we covered everything. Any other concerns, please get a hold of IR or myself, and we'd be glad to continue to discuss them, but thanks to the team. All the 34,000 plus employees at Exelon for delivering another strong quarter and talk to you soon. Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. And that concludes today's webcast. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Daniel L. Eggers - Exelon Corp. Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp. Joseph Nigro - Exelon Corp. Kathleen L. Barrón - Exelon Corp. Anne R. Pramaggiore - Exelon Corp. James McHugh - Exelon Corp.
Analysts:
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc. Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.
Operator:
Good morning and welcome to Exelon 2018 Second Quarter Earnings Call. My name is Nora and I will be facilitating the audio portion of today's interactive broadcast. This event also features streaming audio which allows you to listen to the show through your PC speakers. And for those of you on the stream, please take note of the option available in your event console. At this time, I'd like turn the show over to Dan Eggers, Exelon's Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
Daniel L. Eggers - Exelon Corp.:
Thank you, Nora. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our second quarter 2018 earnings conference call. Leading the call today are Chris Crane, Exelon's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Joe Nigro, Exelon's Chief Financial Officer. They're joined by other members of Exelon's senior management team who will be available to answer your questions following our prepared remarks. We issued our earnings release this morning along with the presentation, both of which can be found in the Investor Relations section on Exelon's website. The earnings release and other matters which we'll discuss during today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ from our forward-looking statements based on factors and assumptions discussed in today's material and comments made during this call. Please refer to today's 8-K and Exelon's other SEC filings for discussions of risk factors and factors that may cause results to differ from management's projections, forecast and expectations. Today's presentation also includes references to adjusted operating earnings and other non-GAAP measures. Please refer to the information contained in the Appendix of our presentation and our earnings release for reconciliations between the non-GAAP measures and the nearest equivalent GAAP measures. We scheduled 45 minutes for today's call. I'll now turn the call over to Chris Crane, Exelon's CEO.
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
Thanks, Dan, and good morning, everybody. Thank you for joining us today. We understand it's a busy earnings release period. So thanks for being with us. Starting on slide 5, we're pleased to deliver another great quarter. We achieved strong financial results while continuing to enhance our operational performance and make meaningful gains at our utilities on both the regulatory side and the legislative fronts. Taken together these advances will support our continued strategy to invest in infrastructure, in technology at our utilities delivering better service for our customers. For the quarter, on a GAAP basis, we earned $0.56 per share versus $0.10 last year. On a non-GAAP basis, we earned $0.71 per share versus $0.56 last year, which is above the midpoint of our $0.55 to $0.65 per share in the guidance range and puts us in a strong footing for the year. Turning to slide 6, at the utilities, we continue to execute at top quartile levels across key customer satisfaction and operating metrics. The investments we are making are paying off in improving reliability, strong customer satisfaction, which in turn strengthens our relationships with our regulators. All of our utilities are achieving top decile performance in KD, which measures the average speed, which we are able to restore power when outages occur. We are also delivering leading performance across the utilities on customer service metrics as we share best practices and give customers more tools to connect with the utilities when they need service. Safety still remains our highest priority and the targeted programs implemented last quarter are driving improved results. At ExGen, nuclear generation output was 39 terawatt hours with a capacity factor of 93.2%. We had 41 fewer outage days compared to last year. Our gas and hydro fleet continue to perform very well with economic dispatch match rate of 97.8%. Turning to slide 7, I'm happy to report that the tax savings from our FERC regulated transmission assets will benefit our customers by an additional $175 million, adding these benefits to the $500 million of savings from our distribution operations that we discussed on last call. Our 10 million utility customers will realize over $675,000 of an annual benefit from tax reform. We're pleased that our constructive relationships with our state regulators in FERC allow us to pass these benefits back to our customers in a very timely fashion. Flipping over to slide 8, in June, Delaware and Pennsylvania both passed important legislation that reflect our utility priorities in the present and for the future supporting infrastructure investment and positioning for the utility of the future, respectively. In Delaware, state regulators passed the Distribution System Investment Charge. This will support needed infrastructure investment to enhance the system improve service to our customers. It will provide a mechanism for a more consistent and gradual rate increase for our customers, while also allowing for a more timely recovery on our infrastructure investments. Delmarva Power, Delaware plans to make its first filing in the fourth quarter with new rates effective by the first quarter of 2019. In Pennsylvania, Governor Wolf signed legislation authorizing the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission to review and approve alternate rate mechanisms that will better position PECO to make investments in the utility of the future. The forward-looking regulatory design options in the legislation include a decoupling mechanism, formula rates, multi-year rate plans and performance-based rates. Both of these laws will help to ensure that our utilities can deploy much needed capital to support reliability and performance of the grid for our customers, while also decreasing the frequency of traditional rate cases. I want to especially thank the broad group of stakeholders in both Delaware and Pennsylvania for the support of these laws. We look forward to finding common ground across all our jurisdictions, as we focus on improving customer service and investing in the utility of the future. Slide 9, turning to the ZEC programs, in both Illinois and New York, we are awaiting final decision from the Federal Appeals Court. We are pleased with the Solicitor General's brief filed in the Illinois case in the Seventh Circuit, which agreed that the states have the authority to enact the ZEC programs. We remain confident in our legal position in both the cases, and continue to collect the ZEC revenues as they are being adjudicated. In New Jersey, following Governor Murphy's signature, the Board of Public Utilities is beginning to implement the ZEC program there, which we expect to take effect around the end of the first quarter 2019. On the Federal Energy policy front, FERC issued an order on PJM two capacity market mitigation proposals. The order rejected the two-stage capacity re-pricing of multiple RECs proposal submitted by PJM and it also determined that the existing tariff is unjust and unreasonable. Instead FERC established a new proceeding to introduce a two part proposal. The first proposal is to expand the current MOPR to ensure that most if not all plants that receive out-of-market payments will be subject to a minimum offer requirement. The second proposal, however, would allow the plants receiving out-of-market payments to avoid the MOPR and instead be withdrawn from the market along with the commensurate amount of load. This asset specific FRR can be implemented by the states to align with the state's environmental policies. FERC has set a schedule to allowing 60 days for comments, 30 days for replies, and a goal of reaching the final decision by January 4. We disagree that the MOPR is necessary. We are encouraged that FERC has now said that all assets receiving out-of-market payments should be treated the same. The implementation details will matter but we believe that the partial FRR design could allow states to advance their energy policy goals, which we think is critical to ensure the needed reduction in carbon emissions. With respect to PJMs work on price formation, we continue to look forward for a decision from FERC on the fast start by September and PJM has committed to implement the rule changes in a timely fashion after the FERC order, including reengaging stakeholders on a full integral relaxation. PJM continues to work through reforms to which storage pricing rules included those related to reserves in the operating reserves demand curve pursuant to the deadlines it had set for those rule changes. Finally on resiliency, PJM has taken the input and the assumptions and the scenarios that it needs to model in order to assess fuel security of its generation fleet. This will allow PJM to move forward on evaluating potential changes to market design to ensure that it is properly valuing the fuel security, while it awaits further direction from FERC in the open resilience docket. We see all these changes as essential to preserve the effective competitive market in PJM and we applaud the ongoing efforts to design and implement these changes. Now, I'll turn it over to Joe and he can walk through some of the numbers.
Joseph Nigro - Exelon Corp.:
Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone. Turning to slide 10, we had a strong quarter financially, delivering adjusted non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.71 per share which is above the $0.56 per share we earned in the second quarter of 2017 as well as our guidance range of $0.55 to $0.65 per share. Exelon's utilities less Holding Company expenses delivered a combined $0.37 per share. Compared to our plan, the utility results were better on higher distribution revenue from the approval of the Pepco Maryland settlement, a transmission revenue true-up at BG&E and favorable weather impacts at PECO. Generation earned $0.34 per share in the second quarter, which was also better than planned. Upside came from realized gains from our nuclear decommissioning trust. Our nuclear plants had another strong quarter with fewer outage days compared to both last year and what was budgeted for this year. And we benefited from favorable market conditions including FTR settlements in PJM. These were partially offset by higher allocated transmission costs. We are reaffirming our full year guidance range of $2.90 to $3.20 per share, which you can see on slide 19. We expect to deliver operating earnings of $0.80 to $0.90 per share in the third quarter compared with $0.85 last year. Turning to slide 11, the $0.71 per share in the second quarter of this year was $0.15 per share higher than the second quarter of 2017. Our utility earnings were collectively up $0.04 per share compared to last year, driven primarily by higher rate base and mill rates associated with completed rate cases. Generation earnings were up $0.12 per share compared with last year benefiting from fewer planned and unplanned nuclear outage days, contributions from the Illinois ZEC program and higher realized nuclear decommissioning trust gains partially offset by lower power price realizations. Moving to slide 12, our utilities continued to execute financially as we look at our trailing 12-month earned ROEs. Starting with PHI, we made modest gains at each utility as we continue to deliver improved operational and financial performance since the merger. Pepco's higher earnings reflect the distribution rate cases from last fall and the recent Pepco Maryland settlement that took effect on June 1, 2018. Looking to next quarter, Pepco's earned returns should benefit from a full quarter of the Maryland settlement reached in April and a partial quarter benefit from the pending DC settlement. Delmarva's earned ROEs now include the benefits of interim rates in Delaware that took effect in March 2018, and at Atlantic City Electric we saw higher earnings from the ACE settlement effective October 2017, which was largely offset with higher O&M and depreciation expense. We expect to see ROE improvement with full flow through of the October 2017 settlement. For all of the PHI utilities, trailing 12 month ROEs in the fourth quarter should show additional uplift as the FAS 109 changes from the fourth quarter of 2017 drop out of the calculation. For the legacy Exelon utilities, our earned ROEs remained over 10%, lifting the consolidated utilities platform to nearly 9.5% including PHI. We are happy with our overall utility performance but still see room for improvement at PHI as the better operating performance translates into higher earned returns. And as we have said before, we are confident in our ability to deliver on our plan and still expect earned ROEs in 2019 to be in the 9% to 10% range across the utilities. Turing to slide 13, we remain busy on the regulatory front. On the last call, we discussed settlement arrangements in April at both Pepco DC and Pepco Maryland, providing revenue decreases of $24.1 million and $15 million respectively after reflecting tax savings benefits for customers. On May 31, the Maryland PSC approved the settlement for Pepco Maryland with rates effective on June 1. For Pepco DC, the Commission is expected to approve the settlement in the third quarter with rates effective shortly thereafter. We are also able to reach a settlement in our Delmarva, Delaware electric distribution case on June 27, 2018 making it the second consecutive electric case we have settled in recent history. The case will provide a $7 million revenue reduction inclusive of tax benefits. We expect a final order in the third quarter. As Chris noted earlier, Delmarva Power, Delaware expects to make its first filing under the Distribution System Investment Charge tracker in the fourth quarter of 2018, with the new charge appearing on customer bills by the first quarter of 2019. We also have a number of rate cases still in play. On June 8th, BG&E filed for a $63 million increase to its gas revenues and a $22 million STRIDE surcharge reset with an order expected in January 2019. BGE's continued investments in STRIDE and gas systems safety and reliability programs are driving the need for this requested increase. In Delaware, we have an outstanding gas distribution rate case at Delmarva that is scheduled for completion in the fourth quarter. In Pennsylvania, PECO filed for an electric distribution base rate case in March for the first time in three years. We expect to receive an order in the second half of this year. Finally, on April 16th, we filed for rate updates at ComEd as part of the standard annual formula process. We expect to receive an order in the fourth quarter. We appreciate the hard work of our utilities and regulatory teams. Our investment is focused on improving system reliability and the customer experience are having positive benefits in the communities we serve. By delivering on a regulatory strategy, we're able to make these investments, while also earning a fair and timely return on the capital being deployed. More details on the rate cases and their schedules can be found on slides 27 through 33 in the Appendix. Turning to slide 14 and continuing on the topic of capital investment at our utilities, we invested $1.3 billion of capital at the utilities during the second quarter and are at $2.6 billion year-to-date. We remain on track to meet our $5.5 billion capital budget for 2018. Today, I would like to highlight two additional projects that are part of our overall budget and offer real benefits to our customers and communities. The first is PECO's gas main and service replacement program. The project will replace nearly 1,800 miles of gas mains and service lines of which 520 miles has already been completed. We continue to work with the state to accelerate the implementations having shortened the replacement cycle at the start of the program from 30 years to 20 years, today. These efforts will reduce risk on the distribution system by replacing aged materials, which we believe is good for our customers. The second project relates to BGE's investments in Trade Point Atlantic or TPA. Over the next five years BGE will invest $150 million in transmission and distribution infrastructure including construction of a 93 megawatt substation. These investments will support the new 3,100 acre commercial industrial TPA development in Baltimore County, which is projected to generate 17,000 permanent jobs, plus an additional 21,000 during construction. This project is another example of our efforts to continuously work with our states to identify and support development efforts that drive economic growth in our service territories. Turning to slide 15, it provides our gross margin update for ExGen. This quarter we have included the New Jersey ZEC revenue in our 2019 and 2020 disclosures for the first time. Relative to our last update, we saw some movement within the buckets. Our total gross margin in each year is unchanged from our last update with the exception of an additional $50 million in both 2019 and 2020 associated with the New Jersey ZEC revenue. For 2018, open gross margin was up $100 million primarily due to higher NI Hub and PJM West Hub prices, offset by weakening ERCOT spark spreads and our hedges. We had a strong quarter in new business execution creating $200 million of Power New Business in our retail and wholesale channels as we capitalized on ERCOT volatility. In 2019 and 2020, total gross margins are up $50 million in each year with the New Jersey ZEC revenue, which shows up in the capacity and ZEC line. Open gross margin is up $100 million in 2019 due to higher prices in New York Zone A and PJM West Hub. Open gross margin is flat in 2020. We also executed $50 million of Power New Business in 2019 and 2020. We ended the quarter basically in line with our ratable hedging program in 2018 and 10% to 13% behind ratable in 2019 and 6% to 9% behind ratable in 2020 when considering cross commodity hedges where we have increased our concentration. We remain comfortable being more open when we look at the market fundamentals compared to forward prices particularly at NI Hub. Turning to slide 16, we remain committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet and our efforts on this front have been noticed with Fitch placing Exelon, PECO, and BG&E all on positive outlook in June. Our consolidated corporate credit metrics remain above our target ranges and meaningfully above S&P thresholds. We are forecasting ExGen's leverage to be 2.6 times debt-to-EBITDA at year-end 2018, which is below our long-term target of 3.0 times. On a recourse debt basis, we are at 2.1 times, which is well below our target. We will continue to manage our balance sheet at ExGen over time to the 3.0 debt-to-EBITDA level. So look for us to focus on debt reduction at both HoldCo and GenCo. I will now turn the call back to Chris. Thank you.
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
Thanks, Joe. Turning to slide 17, again, we had a strong financial quarter and operationally that is a testament to the hard work and dedication of our employees. Our financial footing and sounding continues to gain momentum. Here again, I'll restate our proposition value. We continue to focus on growing our utilities targeting 7.4% rate base growth and 6% to 8% EPS growth through 2021. We continue to use free cash from the GenCo to fund incremental equity needs at the utilities, pay down debt over the next four years at ExGen and the HoldCo and fund part of the faster dividend growth. We continue to focus on optimizing value for the ExGen business by seeking fair compensation for our carbon free generation fleet, supporting proper price formation in PJM and resiliency initiatives at FERC and working to develop capacity market reforms at PJM pursuant to the recent FRR order. We continue to close uneconomic plants and sell assets where it makes sense to accelerate our debt reduction plans and maximize value through the gentle load matching. We continue to sustain strong investment-grade credit metrics, as Joe pointed out, in our growth driven consistently at 5% through 2020. With that operator, we can now open it up for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. Your first question comes from the line of Ali of SunTrust. Your line is open.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
Thank you. Good morning.
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
Good morning, Ali.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
Good morning. The first question on the PHI utilities, what's the aspiration there? I mean, are those utilities and the way the system is set up, are they set up that they can ultimately earn their authorized ROE or will there be a permanent lag in the system and when do you think you will be at the maximum in terms of your earned versus allowed ROE (24:22)?
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
So there is a lag component at a couple of the PHI utilities now that we're working on. We've talked about ACE. We think we have the right legislative package to help that reduce that in Delaware and we're also working on different proceedings at Pepco Maryland and Pepco DC. We project it to be within the 9.5% range by the end of 2019. We're on track to do that. We have the developed activities that are helping. We also have the efficiency programs we're putting in place. So, I think we're well on plan. We recognize the legacy issues that were happening around that and are having constructive dialogue with our legislators as we've done in Delaware, our regulators, as we're doing with the filing in New Jersey and we'll continue to focus on that.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
Okay. And then Chris to the extent that Forex proposal for PJM and the FRR aspect of it does become law and moves forward. How do you look at that relative to your portfolio and what that means for Exelon?
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
Well, you can imagine. I'm going to let Kathleen Barrón cover that. But, as you can imagine, there's a lot of evaluation that we have to do right now to really choose the path that benefits our customers and our fleets. So, Kathleen?
Kathleen L. Barrón - Exelon Corp.:
Yeah. Thanks for the question, Ali. I think what we're facing here is markets that because they're not pricing pollution are making emitting resources look less expensive and they're pushing out clean resources, including ours, as you know, 10.6 gigawatts of uncleared nuclear in the last auction. I think what FERC is saying in this order is that rather than letting RPM continue to push those units out, they're giving safety opportunity to pull them in and instead of paying PJM to support units that perhaps they don't want to support they can directly pay those assets. And so, as Chris said in the opening of the call, implementation details certainly matter. But we think this is an extremely constructive approach to allowing states to choose the resources, the clean resources that they need to continue to keep running to achieve the our goals of reducing carbon and air pollution for their citizens.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
Okay. And last question with regards to the pending litigation in New York and Illinois, any marker we should be keeping an eye on to give us some framework of when the decision might come from either of those states?
Kathleen L. Barrón - Exelon Corp.:
Unfortunately, we have no way to know exactly when those orders will issue but the cases have been fully briefed and we expect them to issue any time. There is nothing that we know that's holding them up.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Greg from Evercore ISI. Your line is open.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Hey, good morning. I'm happy we're on a first name basis now.
Daniel L. Eggers - Exelon Corp.:
Thank you, Greg.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Joe, just a question for you with regard to the quarter. I mean, obviously the numbers were quite robust, but there was $0.05 of positive earnings from NDT. I mean that's not necessarily – I know that that moves around every quarter, but I wouldn't consider that necessarily the highest quality earnings. But even if you exclude that, you were still ahead of your prior guidance range. So can you just walk us through what you think sort of a clean basis and was that still in excess of your expectations?
Joseph Nigro - Exelon Corp.:
Yeah. If you subtract the $0.05 for NDT, Greg, what I would say is, when you look at it overall, the midpoint of our range was $0.60. We obviously earned $0.71 on an operating basis. A little more than 50% of that was coming from the utilities. And as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, it is driven by three things
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Right. And I heard you indicate that you're – and show that you're running well below your debt to EBITDA target and thus you can address that by using your cash to – in addition to funding rate-based growth, dividend, not just think just think about paying down ExGen debt, but also working down parent debt. But there's a bigger issue here, which is that you know the FFO to debt targets that the rating agencies are holding you to seem excessively high relative to the declining risk profile of the company. What has to happen to evolve the conversation with the rating agencies to get a lower threshold? And is it really dependent on getting more certainty on capacity and energy market reforms at this point since you've shown demonstrably that you're one of the best operators on the utility side of the house in the country?
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
Yes. So Greg, we have been and will continue to have dialogue with all the rating agencies. You heard Joe's conversation on Fitch. We've had a good dialogue with S&P. They understand our strategy, they're wanting to see it consistently implemented. They recognize that it is being consistently implemented. I think you know a couple of milestones coming through with the final approval from the Appellate Court on the ZECs, making that revenue look much more like regulated revenue, continuing to follow our path on debt reduction, which part of that is building balance sheet space, de-risking, but also part of it is liability matching with the nuclear assets and their life into the 30s and 40s. So we just have to continue to execute on our plan. We're having very positive dialogue. We appreciate the Fitch positive. We look forward to hearing from the others and hopefully shortly that they're seeing it and we'll be able to talk about not only moving thresholds, but potentially a more positive rating.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Okay. My last question you may have already demonstrably answered previously, but if in fact, you're given – you and the states are given the option of pursuing an FRR type structure for plants that are deemed to be important in those regions. Does the legislation that you currently have in Illinois and New Jersey for instance create the flexibility to do that or would you need to go back to your legislators and engage them in a restructuring of that legislation to give them the flexibility they would need to bring those assets out of the capacity market and properly compensate them?
Kathleen L. Barrón - Exelon Corp.:
Hey, Greg. It's Kathleen. We're currently looking at existing legislative authority in all of our states. And so I think it's going to depend on the jurisdiction. And it's also going to depend on what FERC's order ultimately says about what authority states will be to exercise in order to take advantage of this option. So I think, it's going to differ depending on the state. But we're currently evaluating the best path forward in each of the states that have clean energy targets that we think this order will help them meet.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Okay. Thank you all. Have a great day.
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
Thanks, Greg.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Steve of Wolfe Research. Your line is open.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Hi. Good morning. Hey, Chris.
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
Hi.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Just I guess, you know it's hard to kind of interpret a lot of these FERC proposals in different directions. You also had the Mystic decision. And so, maybe you can just give a broader perspective of what they're trying to achieve here and just what could change versus this initial proposal before we hear kind of I guess a final structure by early next year?
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
Yeah. So the fight – the disagreement within the stakeholders is around the supplemental income that is being received for the social benefit of carbon reduction within our states. We lack a federal policy as you know on carbon, although the conversation continues and that would be the ultimate fix. That would really level the playing field and allow the states to skip (34:15) support of federal policy. Short of that, the states have deemed – the majority of states that we operate in that they want to preserve the low carbon output that they have. They understand that 60% of the power in the State of Illinois is carbon-free, 90% of that is nuclear. We start shutting down nuclear plants like you look at the FE announcement, every penny that's been spent in PJM and outside of PJM on REX to achieve a lower carbon output would be wiped out. It's like we threw the money away. So you've got a very passionate belief within some of our states that they want to keep these assets. PJM has been unable under the current tariffs to be able to separate and support at this point the environmental needs of their stakeholders. So what this allows from FERC is a positive move to say if the administration and the legislation in New Jersey wants to preserve a low carbon future for its state and for its citizens. It allows Illinois to do the same thing. If New York wanted to look at something, it could do something for New York. So I think, this is finally setting the final decision on how we manage these assets that may be out of the capacity revenue stream, not clearing, but the state wants to keep them. We had Secretary Perry at the FitzPatrick Plant yesterday with Congressman Katko and it was very positive. I mean we are gaining momentum, but not only in his opening comments, in the press conference and with our tour in discussion with local officials, is he concerned about the economic benefits of the plant. He's concerned about the reliability and the resiliency on the fuel diversity and he's also commented on their capabilities for low carbon. So you've seen us go back and forth between ZECs and between other programs to try to save. We've seen the arguments from other stakeholders against it and I think this gives us a path to finally put it to bed.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. That's helpful. And just one other question on it, if you were to get into kind of an FRR structure like, do you have any sense on like how long that would be i.e., you know if that's kind of a form of reregulation of the plant, is that for good, is that for you know a set amount of time like the ZECs are?
Kathleen L. Barrón - Exelon Corp.:
Yeah. Steve, I'll jump in on that, that's certainly one of the implementation details that will be worked out through the FERC docket, but it's important to know we're not talking about reload (37:27) regulation, we're talking about an alternative way to pay the units for capacity, and let the states choose which units they'd like to pay for capacity as opposed to letting RPM select the assets. So it's a step towards the future that Chris identified, that we anticipate will be short-term. The current FRR structure as you know allows units or zones to step out of RPM for a five year period with the option to come back in. And ultimately if we get this to the longer term carbon solution that Chris identified, then these decisions will be made by the market through a carbon price and that will be a longer term structure that will benefit our customers.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Got it. Thank you very much.
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
Sure.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Julien of Bank of America. Your line is open.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Hey, good morning.
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
Good morning, Julien, how are you doing?
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Good. Great. Thank you. Just to clarify the last question actually if we can start there. I just want to make sure I'm hearing this correctly. Is your expectation that states would actually move through the motions to file for this FRR or is it rather that your expectation that status quo would maintain itself with respect to just continue to clear assets or attempt to clear assets given wherever your avoided costs might be?
Kathleen L. Barrón - Exelon Corp.:
Julien, it's Kathleen. I think it's the former that we would expect states to be looking very closely at this opportunity, not just because of course of the nuclear [Technical Difficulty] (39:02) the renewable fleet effects, any asset efficiency demand response that's receiving support from customers directly. And so there are a lot of stakeholders who have an interest in making sure that the states are going to be able to do clean capacity procurements and have that capacity recognized by RPM – by PJM rather.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
And you've confidence that you can indeed find a way from a regulatory path to support an FRR implementation including compensation for the units, if that's where it goes in both Illinois and New Jersey, to be clear?
Kathleen L. Barrón - Exelon Corp.:
Yes, sir.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
All right, excellent. Now, let me turn back to the utility side of the equation here where things are booming obviously. Can you comment on the New Jersey side with CapEx? I mean we've talked a lot about New Jersey in the context of the nuclear plants, but obviously the Governor is implementing a lot more than that, maybe energy efficiency filings, offshore wind seems to generate some opportunities at ACE. Just curious how you're thinking about that and what's reflected in the budget as it stands today?
Anne R. Pramaggiore - Exelon Corp.:
Hi, Julien, it's Anne Pramaggiore. How are you?
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Good, thank you.
Anne R. Pramaggiore - Exelon Corp.:
Good morning. On the New Jersey side, obviously with the new legislation, there's a couple of areas that we're looking into, it's subject to – a lot of it's subject to regulatory proceedings that are yet to come. So you would not see what we would be looking at reflected in the budgets or the earnings to-date. But there's an area around energy efficiency, we traditionally have not been involved in energy efficiency programs except for some program funding in the past, and that's one of the things we'll look toward going forward. So to the extent that there's capital investment in energy efficiency, voltage conservation programs, you could start to see those reflected going forward. We also have opportunity to invest in storage and solar going forward in New Jersey. But again, these are all subject to proceedings, at the commission before we have a sense of exactly what that looks like. But we think there's tremendous opportunity here especially as we think about utility of the future, the kind of businesses that we can be in looking forward, serving customers with the types of programs and products and services that they like. So we think there's a great platform there, but some work to do with the regulatory agency.
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
The only thing I'd add to that is, we have a very high sensitivity to rates on our customers. As you know that that part of the state has gone through a downturn. And so as we make the investments which we can do efficiently, we're going to keep a constant focus on those rates. So we're not impairing the future development of commercial, industrial or residential customers.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Excellent. Thank you all very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Michael of Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my call.
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
Hi, Mike.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Hey. Can you talk a little bit about what your expectations are for the summer power market in Texas, given I guess it's gotten off to kind of a mild start? And then also talk about the recent acquisition on the retail side that you guys executed with FES and what the implications are for Constellation from that?
James McHugh - Exelon Corp.:
Okay. Hi, Michael. It's Jim McHugh from Constellation. As far as ERCOT summer, what we've seen is some volatility in the forward markets and the weekly markets going into delivery and even in the day ahead markets, we've seen some pricing that exhibited on the ORDC curve, some higher price spikes. In the real-time market, it hasn't come to fruition. So it's led to a large spread between day ahead and real-time. In real-time, we really saw great operating conditions. The wind performed at or better than forecast. There were minimal generation force outages, so the generators all performed very well, and there were some good demand response availability. But prior to going into the period, we saw weeks trading as high as $800 or $900 and the month of July and August trading in the $200 range. As far as our portfolio, performed well, we're able to take advantage of some of that market volatility we saw in the forward markets. You saw that we executed $200 million of new business this quarter for 2018 on the power side, a good chunk of that is represented by our activity in Texas and what we're able to do and our gen-to-load strategy proved valuable once again. We were able to serve the high load and the high demand with our peaking fleet and the options that we owned. Going forward, I think we expect that volatility to continue. You'll have continued demand growth of 1 gigawatt to 1.5 gigawatts a year with really some wind and solar build out and very little thermal gas combined cycle generation build out. So that volatility will continue, next summer is trading right around the $100 right now and we would expect you would see the same exhibited volatility on the forward curve between now and delivery period of next summer. For the acquisition of FirstEnergy, it's a great fit for our portfolio. We would be paying $140 million subject to price adjustments based on market moves before the process is over. But there's 900,000 customers on the C&I side and residential side across six states. It'd be a great fit for our gen-to-load and gen-to-customer strategy that we've been deploying. We'd also be buying some certain power in basis hedges as part of the process. So it's a strong complement to our existing portfolio and it would provide repeatable and sustainable customer business through renewals and brand recognition for us.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Hey, just a quick follow-up. I think you said that earlier in the call that you're a little closer to ratable in hedging for 2020 I think it was versus 2019. And I'm just wondering, should I be reading anything into that that you're becoming closer to ratable as you go further out, is that sort of a negative take on the power markets or?
James McHugh - Exelon Corp.:
No, Michael, it's not. It's actually we're just building that position, as we hedged the third year of our three year program, we'll continue to grow that behind ratable position. We're currently about 7% or 8% behind ratable in 2020. We've added some gas hedges and cross-commodity hedges to further expose ourselves to upside in power markets. The concentration of our behind ratable position is largely in NI Hub and ERCOT. So I wouldn't read into that. I think our position is similar and growing to be similar across both those years.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Great. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Praful of Citigroup. Your line is open.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Thanks so much. Hi, guys.
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
Hi.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
So just wanted to get a sense for getting back to the capacity auction on the capacity market reform piece. If the states are required to kind of support the asset both from the ZEC payment as well as (46:33), are there any winners, losers in terms of states, I think would make it more difficult to get done especially in this timeframe. Are there some states who will be more inclined to get this versus others?
Kathleen L. Barrón - Exelon Corp.:
I can take that one as well. It's certainly going to depend on the state's readiness, how quickly this gets implemented. So I take the question to be one of what kind of transition period might we be looking at, and I think that's going to be a subject of active debate in the paper hearing at FERC, as to whether there needs to be some sort of transition period to allow states to understand what the rules are and take advantage of them. So I think you should look for that to play out as part of the FERC process.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Got you. Thank you. And then in terms of ERCOT, if the volatility clearly has been high, should we expect that if there are retail players struggling at the back end of extreme volatility that you're looking to expand your retail position or is there any goals that you see to kind of expand your portfolio position in ERCOT at all?
James McHugh - Exelon Corp.:
Hi Praful, it's Jim again. I think we did see going into the summer, one small retailer go out of business with the new collateral posting requirements by ERCOT, which include a look at the forward markets. It might be harder for some of the smaller retail providers to manage their balance sheet if they're undercapitalized through those collateral requirements. For us, I think strategy is the same. We'll look for good value propositions. Our track record with Integrys and Con Ed and what we're looking at now with the FES book will continue to be the same to look for value. As far as the lag effect, you may see the impact of the volatility for the larger players impact maybe in the longer term as the contract tenures and the extended start dates are further out in the curve. So they're currently contracting for load out two or three years forward.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Got you. Thanks. And just quickly just, I mean, ExGen O&M cost reductions, I noticed their target, I think 75% in 2018, 50% by 2019. Is that all on track right now?
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
It's not only on track, it's Crane, Praful, it's not only on track. We are continuing to work to become more efficient, continue to compete in the markets we're in. We are on track to achieve those if not to exceed those, so we're in good shape.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Excellent. Good to hear. Thanks so much, guys.
Operator:
Thank you so much. I would like to turn the call over back to speaker, Chris Crane. Please go ahead, sir.
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
Yes. Thanks. And thanks again for everybody joining the call. As you can see from the strategy that we put together years ago, we're right on track, if not ahead of schedule and we will continue to keep you updated. Look forward to the third quarter calls, but also Dan and Joe and I are getting back out and making sure we drop in and answer any of your questions, so making ourselves available during the third quarter will be a big part of our plan to continue to communicate. We thank you very much and have a good day.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Daniel L. Eggers - Exelon Corp. Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp. Jonathan W. Thayer - Exelon Corp. Joseph Nigro - Exelon Corp. Joseph Dominguez - Exelon Corp.
Analysts:
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Stephen Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc..
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the 2018 Q1 Earnings Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. Thank you. Mr. Dan Eggers, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations, you may begin your call.
Daniel L. Eggers - Exelon Corp.:
Thank you, Geneva. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our first quarter 2018 earnings conference call. Leading the call today are Chris Crane, Exelon's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Jack Thayer, Exelon's Chief Financial Officer. They're joined by other members of Exelon's senior management team who will be available to answer your questions following our prepared remarks. We issued our earnings release this morning along with the presentation, both of which can be found in the Investor Relations section on Exelon's website. The earnings release and other matters which we discuss during today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ from our forward-looking statements based on factors and assumptions discussed in today's material and comments made during this call. Please refer to today's 8-K and Exelon's other SEC filings for discussions of risk factors and factors that may cause results to differ from management's projections, forecast and expectations. Today's presentation also includes references to adjusted operating earnings and other non-GAAP measures. Please refer to the information contained in the appendix of our presentation and our earnings release for reconciliations between the non-GAAP measures and the nearest equivalent GAAP measures. It is scheduled 45 minutes for today's call. I'll now turn the call over to Chris Crane, Exelon's CEO.
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
Thanks, Dan, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. We have had a productive few months since our last earnings call, making important steps in reinforcing our value proposition. At our PHI utilities, we reached settlement in both Pepco Maryland and Pepco D.C. rate cases. With these settlements, we are now reached constructive settlement in all PHI jurisdictions since the close of the merger and accomplished that legacy PHI has not achieved in many years. This reflects a positive evolution of our engagement in these states. Our employees' hard work to improve system reliability and performance have led to rising consumer satisfaction. The progress we have made is reflected in our constructive partnership with our regulators. There's always more work to do particularly on our earned ROEs, but we are encouraged by these developments. In New Jersey, state legislators passed three important energy policy laws with strong majorities on April 12. Most impactful to Exelon was the New Jersey ZEC program, similar to that in New York and Illinois. It'll be more fairly compensating our nuclear generating assets in New Jersey for clean energy attributes of these plants. In March, our East Coast utilities were battered by three northeasters that resulted in about $200 million of spending between capital and operating expenses. Thanks to the tireless efforts of our employees and contractors, we were able to restore power to the effective customers safely and quickly. These storms were challenging and the benefits of our scale were on display in March. We were able to return customers to service days faster than we would have as a standalone utility. Finally, we had a strong quarter financially. On a GAAP basis, we earned $0.60 per share versus $1.06 last year. On a non-GAAP operating basis, we earned $0.96 per share versus $0.64 last year, just above the midpoint of our $0.90 to $1 guidance range while overcoming a $0.06 storm cost through March. Turning to slide 6. At the utilities, we continue to execute at top quartile levels across key customer satisfaction and operating metrics. The investments we are making are paying off in improved reliability, which is strengthening our relationship we have with our customers and regulators. These numbers follow the standard industry practice of excluding major storms, although the benefits of our scale, health (00:04:42) and recovery efforts, which I'll discuss in the next slide. I would note that Pepco D.C. has achieved a record reliability in the past two years since joining Exelon family of companies. We continue to make gains as we share best practices across all utilities. We also continue to focus on helping customers and communities becoming more energy-efficient, saving energy and money. We have been doing this for years and I'm happy to once again announce that EPA named all five of our eligible companies; BGE, ComEd, Delmarva, Pepco and PECO, as 2018 ENERGY STAR Partners of the Year. Our companies also received the Sustained Excellence designation for being named partners three or more years in a row. Safety is always our highest priority and we review our OSHA recordables in the first quarter. We've identified a number of areas for improvement and have implemented a series of our actions to get those numbers back on track. At ExGen, nuclear generation this quarter was 40 terawatt hours, with capacity factor of 96.5%. Our Texas CCGTs continue to perform very well with an economic dispatch match rate of 96.6%, ramping up and down to optimize hour-by-hour the variability in ERCOT pricing. Turning to slide 7. I'd like to take a moment to highlight our utilities' performance and the outstanding work from our crews as they battled three consecutive nor'easters in March. These storms blanket our East Coast utility with heavy wet spring snow and high winds that are especially hard on the system. Over the span of these storms, we faced 1.7 million cumulative customer outages and shared over 1,600 Exelon employees and contractors with our sister utilities. ComEd alone provided an additional 1,200 workers and contract crew members. We also incurred, as I said, $200 million of operating capital expenses. To help put this in context, we replaced approximately 1,200 power poles and handled more than 1.8 million customer calls. With that context, let me share with you the success story of the combined Exelon utility families. Because of our employees are trained on common practices, we're able to seamlessly incorporate workers from different utilities more quickly to get work and return service to our customers. Each storm impacted the service territories differently, but the last of the three storms significantly impacted Atlantic City Electric. We were able to bring in crews and contractors from ComEd, PECO, Pepco, Delmarva and BGE to assist in the restoration effort. Our scale and performance notably sped up the recovery and allowed us to send over 250 employees and contractors into New Jersey to aid in the restoration effort. The storms that occurred this quarter provide a great example of how our model directly benefits our customers. The scale of the Exelon utilities and how we run these businesses continue to contribute to higher quality, more responsive and cost-effective service for our customers. Turning to slide 8. Last call, we provided an update on the impact of tax reform, but I want to revisit it as we have been working with our regulators to pass these savings on to customers. We've identified over $500 million in savings to be returned to our customers related to lower corporate tax rate from our distribution utility operations. As we've said from the start, the benefit of the lower income tax rate will provide a meaningful savings to our 10 million utility customers. We appreciate the constructive relationship with our state regulators in that are allowing us to pass along these benefits to our customers in a timely fashion. Turning to slide 9, we made additional progress in establishing compensation for our nuclear generating fleet that recognizes the value of the emission-free generation and the underlying deficiencies in market design. The most significant development was the New Jersey legislation as I spoke of enacting the ZEC program into law, establishing a path forward to preserve the at-risk nuclear plants in New Jersey. I want to thank our team and our partners at PSEG leadership, the leadership in the Senate and the Assembly and the Governor for working together to pass this important legislation. Once the Governor signs the bill, the ZEC program will go to the BPU for its review of the applications. There is a 330-day deadline for completing the process, putting the program implementation likely at the end of the first quarter in 2019. At that time, we will start realizing the New Jersey ZEC revenues. We are pleased that New Jersey has joined New York and Illinois and Connecticut in recognizing the clear environmental attributes of the nuclear generating fleet. We still see need for more comprehensive solutions to compensate for this clean energy, but we think expanding the ZEC program is a key interim step to preserving our most challenged assets, extending their useful lives and the long-term value of this fleet. Turning to the existing ZEC programs in New York and Illinois, we have had oral arguments in both cases at the federal appellate court levels. In Illinois, the court requested and now waiting for the U.S. Government to provide a view on the case. In New York, the decision is with the judges as they had no outstanding items following the oral argument. We remain confident in our legal position in both cases and continue to collect the ZEC revenues. With respect to PJM work on price formation, FERC has committed to ruling on PJM's fast-start price formation by September, if not sooner, as many parties have requested. PJM is committed to operationally implement the rule as soon as FERC gets approval. FERC's decision on fast-start will dictate the process for additional reforms aimed at eliminating flaws in the current pricing formation rules that currently prevent some units from setting price. In addition, PJM has now set deadlines for stakeholder reviews of reforms to its shortage pricing rules, including those related to reserve and operating reserve demand curves. We see these price formation changes as essential to preserving an effective competitive mark in PJM and apply the ongoing efforts to design and implement these changes. Finally, just yesterday, PJM committed to study fuel supply vulnerabilities that could arise if the grid became dominated by natural gas generation. In its white paper, PJM called for reforms of its capacity market to better value fuel-secure resilient resources. We have seen this as a positive first step where we urge PJM to model the carbon and air pollutant implications of greater reliance on fossil fuels, particularly oil-fired power plants to meet electrical demand. Our states and customers communities expect us to develop policies that will lead to less pollution, not more, so we believe PJM should study the emissions consequences as well. Now, I'll turn it over to Jack to walk through some of the numbers.
Jonathan W. Thayer - Exelon Corp.:
Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone. Turning to slide 10. We had a strong quarter financially, delivering adjusted non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.96 per share, just above the midpoints of our guidance range of $0.90 to $1 per share. This compares to $0.64 per share in the first quarter of 2017. Better results from Generation offset the storm-related cost pressures at the utilities. Exelon's utilities delivered a combined $0.47 per share net of HoldCo, which includes $0.06 of higher storm costs. Since we've not had significant winter storms like these in years, let me remind you how major storms are treated in our different Mid-Atlantic jurisdictions. In New Jersey and Maryland, excluding BG&E, we have a tracking mechanism for major storms, so the costs incurred during the first quarter are deferred as a regulatory asset and will be recovered in the future, thereby not impacting our reported earnings. In Delaware, Pennsylvania, Washington D.C., and for BGE and Maryland, when we file our rate cases, we use an average of major storm costs from previous years that is included in our rates and assumed in our budgets. In years when major storms exceed the historic average, Exelon absorbs the additional storm costs, but future rates will be adjusted to reflect these costs. With March's winter storms, we exceeded our storm budgets, which left us $0.06 per share behind plan in the first quarter of 2018. As we look out to the remainder of the year, we will have to find offsets at the utilities to mitigate any additional major storm expenditures, which historically have come in the first and third quarters. Looking beyond the storm impacts, our utility results did benefit from additional revenues associated with resolved rate cases. We would also expect PHI to catch up on some of their normal course O&M expenses over the balance of the year. Generation had a strong quarter relative to plan, earning $0.49 per share. We had good performance from our nuclear assets with better capacity factors than budgeted. We also benefited from lower O&M expenses and favorable spot market prices. We're reaffirming our full-year guidance range of $2.90 to $3.20 per share, which you can see on slide 19, and expect to deliver operating earnings of $0.55 to $0.65 per share in the second quarter compared with $0.54 last year. Turning to slide 11. The $0.96 per share in the first quarter of this year was $0.32 per share higher than the first quarter of 2017. Generation earnings were up $0.32 per share compared to last year, with ZECs representing the most significant source of uplift, as we recognized the true-up of the 2017 Illinois ZEC revenues in the first quarter, which added $0.11 per share, and we realized full quarter contributions from the Illinois and New York ZEC programs, including the acquisition of Fitzpatrick, which were not in effect during the first quarter of 2017. Relative to the first quarter of 2017, Generation also benefited from higher capacity pricing in New England, the Midwest, and the Mid-Atlantic regions. As a whole, the utilities were largely impacted by higher storm cost, which was partially offset by increased electric distribution and transmission revenues due to higher rate base at ComEd, increased transmission revenue at BG&E, rate increases at PHI and favorable weather at PECO. Moving to slide 12. On a trailing 12-month basis, our overall earned ROEs slipped modestly from last quarter, but are near the midpoint of our targeted 9% to 10% earned ROEs that underpin our target returns for 2019 and beyond. The biggest drag in overall ROEs compared to last quarter came from the increased major storm expenses that I discussed earlier. In total, the storms reduced earned ROEs by 10 basis points for our total utility businesses on a trailing 12 months basis. We remain diligent in managing our operating expenses to dampen the effects from the storm costs. Turning to the PHI utilities, the absolute levels of earned ROEs still have room for improvement, even when we adjust for the 60 basis point drag from the fourth quarter's FAS 109 write-off. That said, the recently filed settlements at Pepco D.C. and Pepco Maryland should start to lift Pepco's earned ROEs in the second half of 2018. We also experienced higher O&M in the first quarter than budgeted, which is due to timing issues, and should reverse over the remainder of the year and help to lift earned ROEs. As we look at our earned ROEs for the rest of 2018 for the overall utility, tax reform is positive to earnings, but also creates ROE headwinds this year due to the timing of equity injections to fund deferred tax returns before the higher equity is reflected in rate cases. The ROE impact is primarily a 2018 timing issue and is already captured in our earnings outlook. We still expect earned ROEs in 2019 to be solidly in the 9% to 10% range. Turning to slide 13, we've had a constructive regulatory quarter. Starting with the most recent developments, we were pleased to reach settlement agreements in April at both Pepco D.C. and Pepco Maryland, providing revenue decreases of $24.1 million and $15 million, respectively. The decreases include adjustments for forecasted tax benefits to customers with the recent tax reform legislation. The settling parties have proposed a procedural schedule that would place rates in effect by June 1 for Pepco Maryland and July 1 for Pepco D.C. We're happy to have reached constructive settlements with key interveners in both jurisdictions that provide bill relief for customers, while also providing a return on our investments and being resolved months earlier than if the cases had been fully litigated. On March 29, we filed our first case at PECO in three years, where we requested an $82 million rate increase, with a scheduled completion by December 31. The filing is focused on supporting PECO's strong reliability performance, strengthening system resiliency and supporting physical security and cybersecurity. I should also note that the $82 million is net of $71 million tax credit for 2019 tax reform benefits and that the five-year average storm cost in the filing includes the costs incurred in the first quarter. On April 16, ComEd filed its annual distribution formula rate update with the ICC seeking a $22.9 million decrease to distribution base rates. The decrease is primarily driven by an adjustment for forecasted tax benefits resulting from the recent tax reform legislation. On February 9, we closed out the Delmarva, Maryland rate case with a $13.4 million revenue increase effective immediately. Finally, we have outstanding cases in Delaware at Delmarva electric and gas that are scheduled for completion in the third and fourth quarters, respectively. More details on the rate cases and their schedules can be found on slides 22 through 27 in the appendix. Turning to slide 14. In the first quarter, we invested $1.2 billion of capital at the utilities and are on track to meet our $5.5 billion budget to the benefit of our customers. Considering the significant number of projects that go into our overall capital budget, we thought a more regular update on specific projects would be useful to appreciate how these investments are benefiting our customers and communities. Today, I'd like to highlight two projects. The first is DPL's Cedar Creek to Milford Transmission Rebuild. This $75 million project entails replacing approximately 43 miles of 230 kV transmission poles as well as new conductor and optical ground wiring. The 230 kV line is critical for the transmission network in the Delmarva region and will improve reliability by eliminating the potential for outages due to structural failure of the line. The second project I'd like to highlight is ComEd's future new substation in Elk Grove. The $90 million greenfield substation is expected to be in service by the third quarter of 2021. The project will support transmission line reliability and projected load growth, primarily from data centers in the Elk Grove Village area by adding over 300 megawatts of additional new capacity. Slide 15 provides our gross margin update for ExGen, which saw some movement within the buckets, but total gross margin in each year is unchanged from our last update. For 2018, open gross margin was up $250 million, primarily due to strengthening ERCOT spark spreads, offset by our hedges. We also had a strong quarter in execution creating $200 million of Power New Business. 2019 and 2020 gross margins are also flat relative to our last disclosure. In both years, open gross margin increased by $50 million on strengthening ERCOT spark spreads, which was offset by our hedges. We were also able to execute $100 million and $50 million of Power New Business in 2019 and 2020, respectively. We ended the quarter approximately 6% to 9% behind our ratable hedging program in 2018 and 8% to 11% behind ratable in 2019 when considering cross-commodity hedges. We remain comfortable being more open when we look at market fundamentals. Turning to slide 16, we remain committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet and our investment-grade credit rating. We are forecasting ExGen's leverage to be 2.5 times debt-to-EBITDA at year-end 2018, which is below our long-term target of 3 times debt-to-EBITDA. On a recourse debt basis, we are at 2.1 times, which is well below our target. We will continue to manage our balance sheet at ExGen over time to the 3 times debt-to-EBITDA level, so look for us to focus on debt reduction at both HoldCo and GenCo. I'll now turn the call back to Chris.
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
Thanks, Jack. Turning to slide 17, we remain firmly committed to our strategy and see progress in the first quarter. Whether it'd be the rate case settlements of PHI, the benefits of the scale on our storm restoration or establishing ZEC programs in New Jersey, our financial footing is very strong. Here again is our value proposition. We will continue to focus on growing our utilities targeting 7.4% rate base growth and 6% to 8% EPS growth through 2021. We continue to use free cash flow from ExGen to fund incremental equity needs at the utilities, pay down debt over the next four years at ExGen and the HoldCo and part fund a faster dividend growth rate. We continue to focus on optimizing value for ExGen business by seeking fair compensation for our carbon-free generation fleet in Pennsylvania as we have done with the ZECs in New Jersey, Illinois and New York. And this adoption of price formation in PJM and resiliency initiatives at FERC will also benefit. We continue to close uneconomic plants, sell assets where it makes sense to accelerate our debt reduction plans and maximize value through the gen-to-load match strategy. We continue to sustain strong investment-grade credit metrics and grow our dividend consistently at 5% through 2020. With that, operator, we can now open it up for questions.
Operator:
Our first question comes from the line of Greg Gordon with Evercore.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Thanks. Good morning. Great quarter considering all the storms you had. I've got a few questions.
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
Sure.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
The first is, looking at your gross margin slide, you did comment that you had some puts and takes and that the total expected gross margins are the same. I see from looking at the prior quarter's deck that your sort of NI Hub's around-the-clock pricing is down, Mid-Atlantic's a little better, ERCOT sparks are a lot better. But when you show us the open gross margin and you roll down to the total expected gross margin, how are you thinking about current forwards in ERCOT rolling into spot pricing? And are you just giving us sort of a theoretical naked mark, assuming you can roll all the current run-up in spark spreads into spot or is there some sort of a holdback there, given the uncertainty with regard to summer volatility (00:25:21)
Joseph Nigro - Exelon Corp.:
Hey, Greg. Good morning. It's Joe Nigro. It's a good question, Greg. And as you've mentioned, there is a lot of volatility expected in ERCOT this summer. And for us, it's not as simple as just selling the Generation output. As you know, we have a very big load book of business. So, we have to take that into account as well. And we look at those scenarios under a lot of different outcomes, be it higher prices and/or lower prices, and we try to set up the book accordingly. When you look at the disclosure here, we're simply mark-to-marketing the value of our open position in the open gross margin calculation, and there was a large uptick to the tune of about $300 million if it had been a fully-opened book. Offsetting that obviously is the mark-to-market of our hedges that are on the book, given the strong move and the sales we've made. And that nets to a gain in the portfolio of about $50 million. As for a holdback, any holdback would be relatively small in the overall total gross margin of the – over $8 billion that's expected, and we would do that given some of the uncertainty of outcomes that we expect.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Okay, great. Thanks. Jack, I've got a couple questions for you. Looking at the slide where you give the projected sources and uses of cash, since I compare that to the last quarter disclosure, it looks like regulated utility investments – expected investments are up a little bit, but the overall free cash flow profile into the end of the year actually looks like it's still net-net improved even after a slightly higher CapEx. Is that a fair synopsis? And I know it's a small increase, but what are those capital expenditures being directed to?
Jonathan W. Thayer - Exelon Corp.:
It is a fair synopsis and I think the CapEx is really related to the storm investment. Chris talked about the significant investments that were made in the Mid-Atlantic utilities during that storm, so that's why you see the increase in CapEx there. To your point, the overall cash flow profile of the company looks quite strong.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Great. And my last question actually goes, because you didn't put it in this deck, back to the Q4 deck where you had EPS sensitivities related to interest rates. And it looks to me like the 30-year is up about 37 basis points since year-end, and you guys put in here the interest rate sensitivity for ComEd ROE and pension expense is $0.03 in each instance for every 50 basis points at least looking at 2019. So, is it fair to say that these sensitivities still hold because that would mean you might be as much as a $0.05 ahead of where you were in 2019 at the beginning of this year?
Jonathan W. Thayer - Exelon Corp.:
I think the $0.05 sounds a little high, but they do hold. And as you know, we benefit from rising interest rates relative to other utilities because of the types of the formula rate in Illinois, but also because of our significant pension liability. And as the interest rates increase, the liabilities shrink. So, no question. This rising environment is helping our costs as well as our revenues and EPS, but $0.05 does seem a little bit aggressive.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Okay. Thank you, Jack. That's all I've got.
Operator:
And our next question comes from the line of Jonathan Arnold with Deutsche Bank.
Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Good morning, guys. Just hoping to follow-up on the ERCOT comment just now. I think I heard you say $300 million is roughly the gross margin. And then, with the hedging value, it sort of offset down to $50 million. Was that a 2018 comment? And if so, could we get some sort of sense on 2019 and 2020 because the sort of hedge sparks (00:29:21) numbers that you gave, finding a little difficult to unpack those.
Joseph Nigro - Exelon Corp.:
Yeah. The comment I made was in relation to 2018, Jonathan, but you could think similarly not in magnitude of dollars because we haven't seen the absolute price change that we saw in 2018.
Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Yeah.
Joseph Nigro - Exelon Corp.:
But you had a pickup in open gross margin in 2019 and 2020, and similarly, we had a mark-to-market drop in 2019 and 2020, given that we've sold in obviously at lower prices. Given that those market prices haven't moved nearly as greatly on the back-end in 2019 and 2020, just the absolute value of the dollars isn't going to be as great. I think the other element, though, is you've seen this market move pretty appreciably in the front-end and rightfully so, given where reserve margins are and the announcements of the retirements. I think you could expect some extreme volatility this summer and that will be obviously weather dependent and depending on unit performance as well as our wind performance. I think the other element, though, is if we see some of that volatility that's expected, it wouldn't be unreasonable to think that you would see price appreciation in 2019 and 2020 on the back of it just because it hasn't moved. And as you could see from our disclosures, we're not only carrying a long position in 2018, we have quite a bit of power still opened in 2019 and 2020 as well.
Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Sure. Thank you, Joe. But can you just – when you look first quarter versus year-end, the effective realized energy price spark number you gave is down. So, just remind us sort of how that works because I think the message is the margin's up so somehow that indicator goes down.
Joseph Nigro - Exelon Corp.:
Yeah. And it's slightly different for the base load regions, I'll call the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, versus the calculation in ERCOT. As you know, ERCOT, we're trying to give you a view of our spark spread which is more relevant to our machines. And the formula is laid out here. It's very simple. We take a gas price using Houston Ship Channel, multiply it by heat rate and add some variable O&M to set the reference price. What we then do is we got to add back or subtract from the mark-to-market value. And the way to think about that is that's a dollar amount. So, we calculated the reference price in a unit of dollars per megawatt hour. We've now got a bucket of dollars on a mark-to-market basis that we need to divide by the volumes sold to bring it back to that same unit of dollars per megawatt hour. It just so happens in 2018, when you look at the effective realized energy price, it's next to zero. We've seen it in the past to actually go negative in ERCOT if we have a large mark-to-market loss with very small volume sold. And then, you could see in the out-years 2019 and 2020, that's a positive outcome or a positive spark.
Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
But the net-net is that your expected margin is higher, correct?
Joseph Nigro - Exelon Corp.:
Yes. Our expected margin in ERCOT is higher in each year given that we're carrying an open position in all those years and the market is going higher. Now, that was offset, as we mentioned in the first question from Greg, with some of the changes on the rest of the portfolio to keep the gross margin on the bottom-line balanced.
Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Yeah. Thank you. And then, just one other little issue. So, we noticed that there were particularly low tax charges at both PECO and PHI in the quarter. So, was there something unusual going on there? What should we be thinking as we sort of push those through the year?
Jonathan W. Thayer - Exelon Corp.:
PECO, I think is where it's specific and it's tax repairs. So, as we invest capital for the storms that shows up later in the benefits and tax repairs same is true in certainly the PHI jurisdictions.
Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
So, what would be – should we see continued effect through the year, Jack, or is it really just like a Q1 one-off?
Jonathan W. Thayer - Exelon Corp.:
It's a Q1.
Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay.
Jonathan W. Thayer - Exelon Corp.:
And depending on what storm activity we see in Q3 or Q4.
Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Yeah. Okay. Thank you very much, guys.
Jonathan W. Thayer - Exelon Corp.:
Sure.
Operator:
And our next question comes from the line of Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Yeah. Hi. I'm curious just there's a lot of retail businesses that looks like are on the market these days. How interested might you be in expanding retail through acquisition?
Joseph Nigro - Exelon Corp.:
Steve, we're always – good morning, first of all. It's Joe. We're always interested in looking at whatever opportunities exist in the marketplace. As you know, we have a history of acquiring companies in our recent past when you look at Integrys and Con Ed, for example, and we'll continue to do that. To the extent we can add something that we think will be accretive to the bottom line and fits with the value proposition that we're trying to bring both to our shareholders and our customers, we're going to be aggressive with doing that. There has been some change of hands with retailers in the near-term here and we would expect that to continue given some that are on the market now and we'll continue to hunt for them.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. And then just the continued comment on staying more open due to your view that power prices are, I guess – upside you see in power prices. How much of that is the potential market reforms versus just expecting better price kind of without them or is it a mix of both?
Joseph Nigro - Exelon Corp.:
It's a mix of both. I think you have to take the whole picture into account. When you look at our portfolio, from my lens, I think about risk reward. And when you look at where the power curve is, like, for example, in the Midwest now and where gas prices are, we think about it from a heat rate perspective and we see upside to that. And that's driven by some of the reforms that PJM themselves is talking about, and obviously, Joe and a number of folks here at Exelon are working on very closely, and we stay very tied to that. And then, in addition to that, we look at history and changes in the composition of the Generation stack and the transmission stack. I still go back to some of the easy examples, though. We had gas prices two years ago at $1.70 and we had power prices that were almost $26. You have gas curves at $0.75 or $0.80 higher than that, and you see power prices that are lower than where they were. So it becomes a question of risk reward when you overlay just the fundamentals of the market itself and then obviously some of the regulatory reforms that are out on the horizon.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
And our next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Hey. Good morning.
Jonathan W. Thayer - Exelon Corp.:
Good morning.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Hey. So, perhaps, to follow up on Steve's question a little bit. Can you talk a little bit about expanding margins on retail and just what you're seeing out there? Obviously, some of your peers of late have really been adamant in seeing an opportunity there. Just would be curious to hear your latest assessment. I know you guys have seen a variety of different dynamics in the retail markets in recent months. So, I'll leave it there.
Joseph Nigro - Exelon Corp.:
Yeah. Julien, good morning. It's Joe. I guess, I really can't speak to what my competitors are actually achieving. I have an understanding of what they're saying, and we know how they're reacting in the market. What I would tell you is, we think about our load serving business across the wholesale perspective, when we think of polar auctions, as well as our independent retail business. It's tied very closely, obviously, to our Generation portfolio. I think, first of all, the volatility during the quarter, especially in New England and PJM was good to see. We've got an expectation of volumes and margins that are in our disclosure, and we're comfortable with those, and they remain – the margins remain in line with what our expectations have been historically for C&I margins. We're comfortable with our projections overall. I will tell you we've seen some competitive behavior change on the retail side. Some folks, I think, were hurt last year with low volumes. And when you get into some of the non-energy charges and how they're calculated on a volumetric basis, and we've seen some of our competitors move away from fully fixed price contracts in certain markets. And we'll continue to offer those products, and we're going to remain disciplined to our approach. We spend a lot of time analytically evaluating data and using that data to inform our decisions both from a generation to load matching strategy, from a pricing perspective and a product development perspective. And as you know, last year, we had some challenges in our retail business. We're comfortable where we are now. I will tell you on the wholesale polar auction side in the first quarter, we have had some success. And I think it's directly attributable to the volatility that we saw in late December and early January, and quite frankly, in March as well in Eastern PJM with higher prices. So, overall, we're comfortable with what's reflected in the disclosure, and we're comfortable with the margins and the volumes. And we'll continue to work hard, and it is a very competitive marketplace.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
And just wanted to follow-up on one specific plant here, Mystic in New England. A lot of different dynamics playing out right now, but it would seem as if you need to clear your asset at all of the units, if you will, and then keep them around or would you actually look to retire select units here if they don't actually get picked up with an RMR or otherwise?
Joseph Nigro - Exelon Corp.:
Well, I think we've been very clear, right? I mean we announced the acquisition of the Marine Terminal. We have an obligation for capacity that we are going to honor. And that's part of the reason that we're driving towards that acquisition of the terminal. We've also been very clear that absent market reforms, we don't see profitability for these units into the future. And we're working very closely to try to rectify that. I mean, the ISO themselves put out a study recently saying that there were five assets in New England needed to ensure reliability into the future, one being the Everett Marine Terminal and the others being the Mystic asset. So, putting all that together, as we've done in PJM and other areas with the capacity market, I think we take a very prudent approach to how we manage this looking into the future, and we're going to do the same thing in New England. We'll honor the commitment for capacity and we're going to look to get to the right reforms to make these assets more economic in the future.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
All of it needs to clear, right?
Joseph Dominguez - Exelon Corp.:
Julien, this is Joe Dominguez. Actually, no. That's wrong. We don't have to clear the units to participate. And in fact, absent successful filing by the ISO on this waiver that they filed last night to offer a cost of service rate to Mystic, we will not clear. We will not participate in future capacity auctions.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Excellent. Thank you.
Operator:
And our next question comes from the line of Stephen Byrd with Morgan Stanley.
Stephen Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Hi. Good morning.
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
Hey, Steve.
Stephen Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
I wanted to touch on your additional leverage capacity. And I guess what I'm thinking about is, as you continue to shift your earnings mix more towards regulated earnings and you're certainly doing that organically, but I guess I'm also thinking about inorganic ways to do that as well. Could you talk at a high level in terms of what that might mean in terms of a different risk profile with the rating agencies, a different targeted credit metrics, et cetera, if you pivot increasingly more towards regulated earnings?
Jonathan W. Thayer - Exelon Corp.:
So, Stephen, I think you know, we've been incredibly conservative with our balance sheet in taking that approach and I think it's worked well with the agencies. As we do get more regulated contribution, certainly the earnings mix of the company shifts as does the risk profile. That married with the 3 times debt-to-EBITDA target at the GenCo, which we're well below now, I think, positions the company quite well. We have, in the past, spoken with the agencies, particularly S&P, about upgrading us at the holding company level and we will continue to pursue that. As the mix shifts occurs, I think our case strengthens. So, that's kind of the conservative approach we're taking.
Stephen Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Understood. And then, shifting gears to the PJM white paper, Chris, that you had mentioned in your prepared remarks and thinking about fuel resiliency, fuel security. Procedurally, sort of how do we think about how PJM might approach that from a process point of view? I know it could take quite a bit of time to do more work, more analytics on that at PJM. But is there anything you can tell us in terms of just thoughts on how that process might unfold?
Joseph Dominguez - Exelon Corp.:
Yes. Stephen, it's Joe, and let me just start off with an observation. It's interesting. Secretary Perry in the 403 last fall identified a resilience problem in these markets. And as you know, that proposal was widely panned with a number of parties indicating that there is no resilience issue. Yet, in the last 48 hours, we've seen a filing by the New England ISO to retain Mystic on fuel security resilience grounds, and of course, we saw this white paper from PJM on Monday indicating that it too may have a resilience problem that would require capacity market changes. From our perspective, turning to that white paper, the things that are going to be important is to understand the analytics, the inputs into the analyses that PJM runs and in particular, how they think about the unavailability of natural gas pipeline service and for what duration. What Chris mentioned at the top of the call is that in addition to those constraints or those modeling parameters, we'd like to see them model environmental impacts associated with this fuel mix. We kept the New England system running this year really on the back of oil-fired units. And while we succeeded in keeping the lights on, it was a disappointing outcome for environmentalists in New England, where we burned 2 million barrels of oil and a disastrous, frankly, outcome for the stakeholder process in New England, where they want to get to lower air pollution, carbon and conventional pollutant emissions. So, we think that needs to be incorporated as well into PJM's analysis. And until we get those environmental externalities incorporated, we're not going to have a complete market. So, we see this as a positive step forward. We're going to look very carefully at how they intend to model this situation, again, the unavailability of gas and for how long. And we think if they do that right, they're going to find that they, too, like New England, have a significant number of fuel constraints on the system that will require them to preserve fuel secure resources. Now, that could be gas plants on Marcellus Shale's storage, it could obviously be nuclear plants and it could be coal plants, but then we need to take another look at that mix and make sure we're meeting the expectations of our customers and communities in terms of environmental impacts. In 2018, emissions need to be going down. And any resolution of this issue that results in emissions going up is going to continue to create incentives for state actions and indeed, for other federal actions to correct the flaws in those market.
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
I want to just follow up on one thing. I want to make it clear. We are not anti-gas. We think that the consumers in the country have really benefited from the plentiful low-cost gas. But as we look at the transmission system designs in the country, the N minus 1 concept that coordinates power flows across our system in the loss of major lines is a design basis. What we need is a design basis threat on the gas system to the electric system and ensure either redundancy in capacity for getting the gas to the plants or limit the dependency on the gas so we can keep the system up along with what Joe said on the environmental attributes. So, we don't have a combined gas- and electric-day coordination. We don't have a design basis threat to the gas system that would affect the electric system properly. And that needs to be worked out.
Stephen Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Very thoughtful response. I mean, it seems like the analysis, as you said, it's important to get the parameters set. That process could take a while. But I appreciate your point about what that analysis could result in. Thanks so much for the color.
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
Sure.
Operator:
And our final question comes from the line of Praful Mehta with Citigroup.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc..:
Hi, guys. Thanks so much.
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
Hi.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc..:
So, a quick question on price formation. Could you just remind us what is the impact that you see for price formation for your assets? And how does that net out against the asset that are receiving zero-emission credits? Is there any net out of that as well?
Joseph Dominguez - Exelon Corp.:
So, I'll jump in. What we have talked about is really what PJM has modeled. And as a grouping of two different initiatives, the fast-start initiative and the full (00:48:09) relaxation for baseload units, PJM has modeled a $3.50 impact to energy markets. We haven't published or discussed any numbers different from that. In terms of how it interfaces with the ZEC program, remember that the units that we presently have in the ZEC program are in New York, which would be unaffected by that change. Clinton, which is in MISO, again unaffected by that change. So, the only unit presently we'd be talking about is Quad Cities. And yes, as energy prices go up either as a result of energy market dynamic changes, policy changes, carbon being in the market, there would be potentially an offset to the ZEC payment with the plants that are participating.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc..:
Okay. That's helpful. And that'll apply to New Jersey as well?
Joseph Dominguez - Exelon Corp.:
In New Jersey, the mechanism is going to be different. But if prices recover for other reasons, the program also will have the BPU look at pricing in future years and potentially make adjustments. The key in all of these states is to preserve the zero-emission resources for the customers.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc..:
Got you. That's helpful. And just quickly connecting that with capital allocation, right? If you do have the upside from price formation and zero-emission potentially in Pennsylvania as well, you've already kind of laid out a plan which allocates all the capital into all the different kind of criteria you've mentioned from debt reduction to dividend. Where do you see the incremental capital, if it does come through, get allocated in your plan covenant? (00:49:54)
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
Yeah. We have good capital resources today. We have good sources of investments to make for customer satisfaction and reliability, so we'll continue on that path, but we have to maintain a very strong sensitivity to the consumer impact on excessive capital going on the system. We can install $8 worth of capital and keep rates the same by reducing O&M by $1. And that's what we have to be focused on is customer service, reliability and the impact on our consumers. So that will be our approach as we go forward.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc..:
Got you. Thanks. Thanks a lot, guys.
Operator:
I would now like to turn the call over to Chris Crane for closing remarks.
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
So, I want to thank everybody again for attending the call and the questions. We're always available for any further details that you want going through Dan. We've had a good first quarter. We anticipate a good 2018. The work that's being done by all our operating groups continue to ensure that we maintain a strong balance sheet and deliver on the value proposition. I won't wear you out with my opinion of the valuation of the stock. We have had some improvement but as we execute we expect to see more improvement on that in the following quarters and year. So, with that, thank you very much.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Daniel Eggers - SVP of IR Christopher Crane - President, CEO & Director Jonathan Thayer - Senior EVP & CFO Joseph Dominguez - EVP, Governmental and Regulatory Affairs & Public Policy Joseph Nigro - EVP
Analysts:
Gregory Gordon - Evercore ISI Julien Dumoulin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Stephen Byrd - Morgan Stanley Steven Fleishman - Wolfe Research Michael Weinstein - Crédit Suisse AG Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank AG
Operator:
Good morning. My name is Sarah, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the 2017 Q4 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. Thank you. Mr. Dan Eggers, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.
Daniel Eggers:
Thank you, Sarah. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our fourth quarter 2017 earnings conference call. Leading the call today are Chris Crane, Exelon's President and Chief Executive Officer; Jack Thayer, Exelon's Chief Financial Officer; and Joe Dominguez, Executive Vice President and Government Regulatory Affairs and Public Policy. They're joined by other members of Exelon's senior management team who will be available to answer your questions following our prepared remarks. We issued our earnings release this morning along with the presentation, both of which can be found in the Investor Relations section of Exelon's website. The earnings release and other matters, which we discuss during today's call, contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ from our forward-looking statements based on factors and assumptions discussed in today's material and comments made during this call. Please refer to today's 8-K and Exelon's other SEC filings for discussions of risk factors and factors that may cause results to differ from management's projections, forecasts and expectations. Today's presentation also includes references to adjusted operating earnings and other non-GAAP measures. Please refer to the information contained in the appendix of our presentation and our earnings release for reconciliations between the non-GAAP measures and the nearest equivalent GAAP measures. I'll now turn the call over to Chris Crane, Exelon's CEO.
Christopher Crane:
Thanks, Dan, and good morning to everybody and thank you for joining us today. Let me start by apologizing first for my voice is recovering from a cold. There's some of our other speakers who are in the same place. So we'll try to make it through clearly without too much distraction. 2017 was a great year for Exelon, and I'd like to take a moment to talk about our business performance and some of our major accomplishments over the past 12 months. First and foremost, I'm pleased to report that Exelon delivered $3.97 per share of GAAP earnings, and $2.60 per share of operating earnings for 2017. Jack will walk through the details, but I'd note that the earnings are solidly within the guidance range as we saw better utility performance and cost discipline absorbed $0.09 timing shift from 2017 to 2018 related to the Illinois ZEC contracts. It absorbed $0.04 from FERC-related accounting changes. Last week, the board approved our updated dividend policy, targets 5% annual growth for 2018 through 2020, builds on our previous plan of 2.5% growth from '16 through '18. It keeps our recently shared goals of offering competitive dividend growth rate in providing multiyear visibility. We're comfortable with the faster dividend growth rate, particularly in light of the significant positive business developments since 2016. We completed the PHI acquisition, increasing our earnings mix from utility operation. Our New York and Illinois ZEC programs have preserved and extended useful lives of our most valuable nuclear plants and consistent with our inherent cost discipline, our forecast OEM spend will be approximately $725 million per year lower in 2020 and the cost reduction initiatives identified since 2015. Jack will discuss our capital allocation plan shortly, but we are confident in our ability to grow our dividend competitively, while meeting all our other capital commitments. I'm proud that we are able to share more of our financial success with our shareholders throughout this updated dividend policy. Tax reform passed at year-end is clearly a positive for us. Allows for significant savings for our utility customers as the new tax rate flows through each of lower bills. ExGen will benefit from lower tax rate and 100% expensing, in total, we see the run rate EPS benefit of $0.10 in 2019. Operationally, we executed well in each area of our business. At our utilities, we invested a total of $5.3 billion of capital in infrastructure and technology to provide a premier customer experience, fewer outages and faster expiration times. That all contributed to higher customer satisfaction scores. In fact, our utilities achieved multiple best on record operational metrics, and received national recognition for exceptional customer satisfaction. Meeting with our better service and performance, we're also busy on the regulatory front, completing 7 distribution and 5 transmission rate cases in 2017, and receiving a total of approximately $400 million in revenue increases. Timely and fair regulatory outcomes helped us to fund the future investment in the grid and improved the customer experience. Our generation fleet also performed well. The nuclear fleet produced 157 million megawatt hours, a record-setting year for Exelon, and we brought into service a turbine CCGTs in Texas. I'm pleased to tell you that our fleet performed very well during December and January cold spell in the northeast, once again demonstrating the value of liquid generation as a highly reliable and carbon-free source of power. On the regulatory policy front, the ZEC programs in New York and Illinois were implemented preserving several of our most of at-risk nuclear stations in the reliability economic and environmental benefits they provide. We will continue to defend these programs as we work on similar programs in New Jersey and Pennsylvania to benefit our customers, our communities and our employees. We also saw recognition of the need to address the resiliency of the power system, an effort that bases with FERC's order in January, we believe FERC order is an important step in addressing new resiliency and concerns. We urge FERC to adopt PJM's proposal around power price formation and adopt a comprehensive resiliency solution that we will realize that will take some more additional time to resolve. Joe Dominguez will discuss this in more detail later in the call. We can talk about our successes this year without -- and we can't talk about our successes this year without noting our strong commitment to corporate responsibility improving and supporting the communities that we serve building on prior years' recognitions. In 2017, we were the first utility named to the $1 billion roundtable which recognizes companies that spend above $1 billion of Tier 1 diverse and minority-owned suppliers. Being an active part of our community is a central tenant of Exelon and this award reflects what we've been able to do for years. In addition, DiversityInc named us 1 of the top 50 companies for diversity and U.S. Veterans Magazine named Exelon to its Best of Best List of Veteran-Friendly Companies. We also made a lot of progress in areas that will bring great value to our communities in 2017. We announced a new job training center in Washington, D.C. modeled after the center we operate in Chicago. We were named to the Civic 50, a list of community-minded companies by [indiscernible] Life Foundation, and singled out as utility sector leader. Exelon and its employees set new records in field operating activities, committing over $52 million in giving and volunteering more than 210,000 hours in 2017. Turning to Slide 6, we'll show you the impact of Exelon's management model that is add on our utility operations. Looking back to the Constellation merger for the legacy Exelon Utilities or since the merger with PHI, we've seen material improvement in operations across our utilities. The hard work of our employees and the benefit of our scale are clearly paying off. Our utilities primarily operate at first quartile levels across our key success of reliability, safety and customer service. However, this does not tell the whole story of our performance with many performance at top decile levels across in many of these measures. And many, being the best on-record performance in 2017 BGE, ComEd and PHI had the best performance on SAIFI and CAIDI and Pepco and BGE and ComEd on customer satisfaction. Customer service remains central to our strong utility performance and we did extremely well in this front in 2017. In J.D. Power's customer satisfaction study, BGE earned the top rank for business electric service among the large utilities in the East and was the best of 11 utilities in the region and was ranked highest nationally among 87 utilities on employee professionalism. Kudos to the hard work of our utility professionals who strive every day to provide service levels for our customers. Turning to Slide 7. We also had another strong year in Generation and Constellation. Our nuclear assets continue to perform at top-tier levels. We had a combined capacity factor of 94.1% marking -- over 94% utilization rate for the 4 of the past 5 years. In 2017, we had 13 refueling outages with an average duration of 23 days. With addition of the FitzPatrick plant in high utilization, we generated a nuclear fleet record of 157 billion megawatt hours. On the Constellation side, our C&I operating metrics remain strong. 74% customer renewables, average customer duration of more than 5 years, and power contract terms of more than 25 months on average. These statistics speak to our deep customer relationship that has been a bedrock of the Constellation business. We continue to see stable unit margins with our C&I customers and our aggressive cost management is helping to further support operating margins. And now I'd like to turn it over to Jack to walk through some of the numbers.
Jonathan Thayer:
Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone. My remarks today will focus on 2017 results, 2018 earnings guidance and annual update through our financial exposures. Turning to Slide 8, as Chris stated, we had a strong year financially and operationally across the company. For the full year of 2017, our adjusted non-GAAP operating earnings were $2.60 per share and comfortably within our guidance range. We're pleased with our full year results, particularly considering the unexpected $0.09 timing drag from the Illinois ZEC contracts they were signed this January rather than in December as well as a $0.04 impact from our FAS 109 asset impairment related to income taxes for our FERC-regulated assets. For the fourth quarter, we earned $0.55 per share. Utilities less holding company EPS was $0.29 per share, benefiting from favorable storm expense and lower O&M expenses, which were offset relative to our plan by the FAS 109 impairment. Generation performed mostly in line with our expectations as our cost optimization efforts offset some market softness experienced earlier in the quarter. Turning to Slide 9, we are providing full year 2018 adjusted operating earnings guidance up $2.90 to $3.20 per share. The growth in utility earnings reflects continued rate base growth as we deploy capital to benefit of our customers as well as improvement in PHI's earned ROEs. And Exelon Generation year-over-year increase is primarily driven by the full year recognition of ZEC revenue from New York and Illinois; the $0.11 recognition of the 2017 Illinois ZEC payments, which is higher than in 2017 drag due to the now lower tax rate; the impact of tax reform; and cost-optimization efforts, partially offset by lower energy prices. We expect our first quarter earnings to be in the range of $0.90 to $1 per share. More detail on the year-over-year drivers by operating company can be found in the appendix, starting on Slide 59. On Slide 10, we rolled forward our outlook for utility CapEx rate base, which now covers 2018 for 2021. We plan to invest $21 billion into our utilities over the next 4 years to ensure reliable, more resilient and more efficient transmission and distribution of electricity and gas that improves the customer experience. Our 4-year capital program is up from what we shared with you last year as we accelerate our gas payment replacement programs at BGE and PECO and take advantage of opportunities to further improve reliability and resiliency, all of which allows us to provide our customers with safe, reliable service. This results in a capital plan across the utilities with a $5 billion annual run rate. Turning to rate base. We now project annual growth of 7.4% compared to 6.5% at the last update, which reflects the expanded CapEx budget and the impacts of tax reform. Tax reform will increase rate base by approximately $1.7 billion in 2020, relative to our previous expectations. For your convenience, in the appendix, we provided a more detailed analysis of capital and rate base outlooks by individual utility beginning on Slide 27. Turning to Slide 11. Equally important deploying capital strength in our systems is timely revenue recovery. Of $11.5 billion of rate base projected -- rate base growth projected for 2021, approximately 70% is covered either under formula rates or mechanisms supporting our ability to make additional investments and earn a fair return on our capital. Where we do not have mechanisms, we will continue to work with stakeholders to enact and implement these types of tools. I would also note that over 70% of our rate base is in jurisdictions that are decoupled from volumes improving our earnings visibility and aligning with the ambitious energy efficiency goals or space. Slide 12 shows a trailing 12-month blended transmission and distribution earned ROEs of the utilities. Our utilities continue to execute, delivering strong earned returns for the year in addition to the robust operational performance, Chris already discussed. Over the past year, PHI's earned ROEs improved at Delmarva and Pepco and remained flat at Atlantic City Electric, although I should point out that the FAS 109 impairment cost about 60 basis points borrowed at each utility. We're encouraged by the improvements of PHI and we expect to see further gains as pending rate cases are resolved throughout 2018. The legacy Exelon utilities had a strong 2017, earning 10.3% as a group, helped by favorable storm expense and O&M, partially offset by the FAS 109 regulatory asset impairment in the fourth quarter of 2017. Improving the earned ROEs of PHI is sustaining strong performance at the legacy Exelon utilities will be a core focus on our efforts to meet our overall utility earnings growth targets. We expect to earn 9% to 10% ROEs across our utilities in 2019. Turning to Slide 13, we remain busy on the regulatory front. Since our last earnings call, ComEd received an order authorizing the revenue increase of over $95 million. Since implementing the formula rate structure, we've recovered 90% plus of our assets with this year being the 100% for the first time. Pepco filed electric rate cases in Maryland and the District of Columbia with orders expected in the third and fourth quarters of this year, respectively. In addition to the recently filed Pepco Maryland and BGE rate cases, we have pending rate cases at Delmarva with orders expected in 2018. Combined, we're asking for $133 million of revenues, which reflect recovery on multiple years of reliability, smart meter and other capital investments that have been made to improve performance across these jurisdictions. Later this spring, we plan to file a rate case at PECO for the first time in 3 years, and we'll file our standard formula update at ComEd in April. More details on the rate cases and their schedules can be found on Slide 65 through 71 in the appendix. Slide 14 provides an update on our outlook for utility EPS, where we continue to forecast 6% to 8% EPS growth. Compared to last year, our EPS bands in 2019 and 2020 have both increased. The uplift from tax reform in utilities from an increased rate base is mostly offset in the first couple of years by the drag from higher holding company expense since a lower tax rate provides less tax shield. As we look toward the back half of this period, we should start to see net benefit from the change in tax policy. Overall, the combination of strong rate base growth, timely regulatory recovery and tax reform leave us on a path to sustain our leading utility EPS growth. Slide 15 provides our gross margin update for ExGen, and on Slide 38, we provide more detailed bridges compared to the previous quarter. I should point out that our decision to retire Oyster Creek, a year earlier than previously planned, is now factored into all of our disclosures for gross margins, O&M and depreciation expense, with the collected EPS uplift being $0.03 in 2018, $0.07 in 2019 and $0.01 in 2020, relative to our previous expectations. Now turning to our gross margin updates. Our 2018 total gross margin is flat relative to our last disclosure. As lower Oyster Creek contribution is offset by the inclusion of the Handley Generating Station. The 1,265 megawatt paper in Texas that we bought out of EGTP portfolio it serves as cost-effective resource to our Constellation retail operations. Total gross margin in 2019 is up $50 million since the last quarter, driven primarily by higher West Hub and NiHub power prices, strengthening our ERCOT's spark spreads an additional Generation related to Handley, partially offset by the early retirement of Oyster Creek. Since we've not previously disclosed 2020 gross margins, let me help with the 2020 disclosures in context by bridging a few changes compared to the 2019 disclosures. Total gross margin is now $300 million, and to be bucketed in two, One, $150 million reduction to open gross margin, primarily from the already announced retirement of TMI. We have offset some O&M and depreciation expense so its closure is net EPS-accretive to us. Secondly, $150 million decrease to the capacity in ZEC line which largely reflects the role-off of the robust and previously disclosed PJM capacity prices from 2018 and '19 option. From a hedging perspective we ended in the quarter, approximately 13% to 16% behind our ratable hedging program in 2018 and 8% to 11% behind ratable 2019 when considering cross-commodity hedges. We remain comfortable being more open when we look at market fundamentals and particularly as we see opportunity for PJM price formation changes. Turning to Slide 16, our O&M expense outlook is consistent with the third quarter earnings call disclosures. That included our expanded $250 million cost-reduction program, plus an additional $50 million and $120 million of O&M savings in 2018 and 2019, respectively, due to the earlier-than-planned closure of Oyster Creek. Turning to CapEx. Our liquid fuel baseline capital spend projections continue to decline. Our base CapEx benefits from a proactive investments we made across the fleet in prior years. Further focus on investment priorities, any impact of closing uneconomic plants. Our nuclear fuel expenditures are falling as we take advantage of well-supply during [indiscernible] markets in excess fuel processing capacity. We continue to run an efficient organization, we'll always look for ways to reduce cost and run our fleet more cost-effectively while maintaining the highest premium on safety and reliability. The combination of ZEC programs in New York and Illinois have extended the useful lives of our most vulnerable assets and we continue to produce ongoing capital needs for the plants, which we think makes a more compelling case from a long-term value of these assets, which the market still seems slow to flat. Turning to Slide 17. We're rolling forward the free cash flow outlook for ExGen to cover 2018 through 2021. We expect the cumulative free cash flow to be $7.6 billion, which is $800 million higher than our previous 4-year outlook. Our forecast takes into account power price forwards at year-end, the current gross margin outlook for Constellation, the benefit of the cost cuts outlined at the third quarter call, the planned closure of TMI and earlier closure of Oyster Creek, our updated base CapEx and nuclear forecast and the impact of tax reform. We're also updating how we plan to use ExGen's strong free cash flow generation. We'll invest approximately $700 million in growth capital, which is primarily cited solar projects in support of our Constellation business, the Medway plant in New England and some final payments around the Texas CCGTs. We plan to inject between $3.3 billion and $3.7 billion of capital in the utilities to fund the outsized growth without the need for external equity funding. With faster dividend growth, we will use approximately $400 million to $600 million of ExGen free cash flow to fund a dividend not covered by the utilities. We're comfortable with this dividend funding from ExGen, particularly considering that the 4-year needs are less than 10% of our total free cash flow generation. Finally, we plan to retire between $2.7 billion and $3.3 billion of debt which will be spread between ExGen and holding company at that. We'll continue to manage ExGen leverage to our 3x debt-to-EBITDA commitment. Turning to Slide 18, we've already shared with you the impact of tax reform on Exelon in our 8-K from January 5, but we want to highlight that we are clear beneficiary from tax reform and offer a few additional details. We expect to pass through meaningful savings to our utility customers across the different jurisdictions, reflecting the lower tax expense recoveries and the refund of deferred income tax regulatory liabilities, partially offset by the impacts of higher rate base. We're thrilled that our customers will benefit so much from tax reform. Our 2018 EPS guidance is inclusive of tax reform, and we expect a $0.10 per share uplift to 2019 earnings. Generation earnings will benefit from a 22% effective tax rate, the utilities will benefit from an increased rate base, up $2 billion by 2021; while the lower tax rate will create less tax shield for our holding company interest expense. We expect to be a very modest cash tax payer through 2021, and you can see the cash tax rates by year. We expect much stronger free cash flow from ExGen, with a lower tax rate and 100 -- it's 100% expensing of capital, which will more than cover the additional equity needs of the utilities associated with the increased rate base and we expect the consolidated metrics will remain largely unchanged as a result of tax reform. Our ExGen tax reform has a positive impact in 2018, with a more meaningful impact in the outer years that provides the company with additional financial flexibility. On utility side, we do see some modest erosion in network over debt, although all of our utilities remain at or above rating agency thresholds. We frequently made the case that our Generation business provides distinct competitive advantage to the overall company with the ability to recycle significant free cash flows. Our positive uplift to credit metrics and no need for external equity are additional examples relative to other utilities that are being pressured due to the tax reforms. Turning to Slide 19, we remain committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet in our investment-grade credit rating. I hit on this in the previous slide, but we remain comfortably ahead of our corporate targets for FFO to debt and well above the downgrade thresholds. Looking at ExGen, we're well ahead of our debt-to-EBITDA targets in 2018. On a total basis, we expect to be at 2.5x debt-to-EBITDA and only 2x debt-to-EBITDA from a recourse debt perspective. We'll continue to manage our balance sheet in ExGen over time to the 3x debt-to-EBITDA levels. So look for us to set our debt reduction at both holding company and Genco. Turning to Slide 20, as Chris mentioned earlier, the board has decided to increase the dividend growth rate policy from 2.5% to 5% annually through 2020. Chris spoke to the positive business developments that gave us the confidence to increase our dividend growth rate to be more competitive with utility peers, so I want to take a moment to talk about our financial thought process. Slide 20 shows the hypothetical portion of the dividend being funded by the utilities, if we assume their piece of the dividend, it's based on a 70% payout ratio on utility, let's holding company expense. The residual dividend is then covered by ExGen. When we consider that the utilities are growing EPS at 68% per year, and represent the growing majority of our earnings, we're comfortably growing the dividend at 5% based on a 70% utility earnings payout ratio, we have to keep space with this earnings growth. On this approach, ExGen is funding around $0.20 of dividend depending on the year, which is a payout ratio in the teens of our 2018 EPS guidance for the business and substantially less amount on a free cash flow basis. We're very comfortable committing the small portion of ExGen's financial output to supporting the dividend and are excited to be returning more capital to our shareholders through the dividend. And now, I will now turn the call over to Joe Dominguez to walk through -- walk you through the latest on our regulatory and policy initiatives.
Joseph Dominguez:
Thanks, Jack, and good morning, everyone. I'll cover Slides 21 and 22 of the materials. Since our last earnings call, we continue to see positive momentum for policy changes that at State, FERC and RTO levels. The value to 0 emission numbers will increase resources that benefit our customers and the environment levels. As Chris said on the call, we remain focused on three areas, first, ensuring that resilient resources are compensated fairly. Second addressing the price formation flaws that PJM has identified and spotted; and third, preserving and expanding state policy initiatives like the ZEC programs and include nuclear energy within the umbrella state-sponsored in the energy programs. I'll walk through each of these. On resilience, FERC issued its order on January 8 in response to the DOE number. Consistent with Exelon's recognitions, the order initiated a new resilience proceedings, and directed the RTOs to immediately examine grid resiliency and provide a report within 60 days. FERC noted that the report should include any recommended changes toward the [indiscernible]. In our filings at FERC, we urged the commission and the RTOs to be resilient as the broader scope of issues than with traditional reliability concerns that's centered around electric generation and transmission and unit performance and whatever does, in particular, as we've talked about in earlier calls, we urge FERC to consider the risk on a cash dating loss of the elect system caused by natural gas infrastructure failure. We expect that the resilience proceedings and tracking solutions will take some time, as Chris indicated earlier. The FERC's order clearly gives PJM the opportunity to address near-term solutions, including medium price formation reforms. PJM had said it can implement those reforms within the course of this calendar year. Based upon PJM's comments, including [indiscernible] the testimony before the Energy Committee of the U.S. Senate a week ago, we expect that PJM will continue to make a strong push for price formation reforms in its court filings. In terms of next steps, we continue to see two alternative pathways that are going to be more simultaneously. One, achieving a FERC-directed PJM filing as a by-product of the resilience docket; and two, a stakeholder process at PJM, followed by a 206 filing successful through its existing enhanced liaison committee process. PJM already has the price formation stakeholder process underway, and it is scheduled to conclude that process in the third quarter. In the meantime, PJM is pursuing more limited changes to price formation in the [indiscernible] docket for filings that are due next week. In summary, the commission's focus on resilience and the chairman's call for urgent action, coupled with PJM's commitment to address market for us, continues to give us confidence that reforms will be implemented in 2018. With that said, there's a lot of work ahead of us as PJM continues to engage with stakeholders and refine its proposal. Turning to the next slide in our outgoing efforts concerning state policies that value 0 emission nuclear resources, Jack already noted that we reached an important milestone last month in Illinois, with the completion of the state procurement process in New York ZEC and Quad Cities and Clinton. Now both the Illinois and New York programs are fully up and running. We remain confident that we'll successfully defend these legitimate state programs in Federal appeals courts and state courts because they preserve for our customers the lowest cost at most reliable 0 emission resources in the market. The New York and Illinois policy precedent that we established has been filed now with [indiscernible] and is under consideration in New Jersey and I'll talk about New Jersey in closing. As many of you know, the bill had made it through 2 committees in the New Jersey Legislature in late 2017. Votes were unanimous in support of the nuclear provisions. However, because then governor-elect Murphy had indicated a desire for more comprehensive package, a floor vote was not held. Since December, we've continued to work with our partners at PSEG and all stakeholders on new legislation. I can report that we are making big progress and I hope for legislative action in early 2018. And with that, let me turn it back over to Chris.
Christopher Crane:
Thanks, Joe. Turning to the Slide 23. We have an updated -- we have updated some of the numbers behind our value proposition, which highlights our strategy and commitment to our shareholders. We will continue to focus on growing our utilities targeting 7.4% rate base growth and 6% to 8% EPS growth through 2021. Rolling forward, another year at above group trajectory. We continue to use our free cash flow from ExGen to fund these incremental equity needs at the utilities, pay down debt over the next 4 years at ExGen and the holding company, and one part of a faster dividend growth rate. We will continue to focus on optimizing value for our ExGen business by seeking fair compensation for our carbon-free Generation fleet in New Jersey and Pennsylvania, as we have done with the ZECs in New York and Illinois. We will continue to pursue adoption of price formation of PJM in resiliency initiatives at FERC; closing uneconomic plants, including GMI in 2019 and now an early retirement of Oyster Creek in 2018; selling assets where it make sense to accelerate our debt-reduction plans and maximizing value through our GEN to load matching strategy at Constellation. We continue to sustain strong investment-grade credit metrics, and now growing our dividend consistently at 5% through 2020. However, turning to Slide 24, I want to leave you with some key focus areas for 2018. We will continue to deliver operational excellence across all our businesses, focusing on modernizing the grid and improving our customer experience at the utilities, running our Generation fleet safely and reliably and same discipline in our retail business to capture fair margins. At utilities, we plan to invest $5.4 billion of capital to benefit our customers. We will file a total of 5 distribution rate cases with the goal of achieving our targeted 9% to 10% ROE across the utility families in 2019. In Generation, we will work to establish the PJM price formation changes in 2018, we will start working on a broader resiliency initiative at FERC, which will take more time. We'll continue to defend the Illinois and New York ZECs in courts and we'll work with our stakeholders to establish fair payment for the environmental attributes in our nuclear plants in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Financially, we will being to grow the dividend as discussed at 5% annually, continue to execute on our previously announced cost-management initiatives, and finally, we will continue with our corporate responsibility initiatives including the focus on gender parity issues through participation as the only energy company in the UN HeForShe campaign building on last year's expansion of pay leave policies and our signing of the Presidents Equal Pay Pledge. The strategy underpinning the value proposition we rolled out a couple of years ago is proving very robust. We are well positioned to capture additional upside and feel confident about the prospects for Exelon in 2018 and beyond. With the many successes we've had in recent years and the relative stock outperformance, we still believe our stock is undervalued in absolute terms and in particular, compared with our peers. We remain committed to optimize the value of our business and earning your ongoing support of for Exelon. Operator, we can now open it up to questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from the line of Greg with Evercore ISI.
Gregory Gordon:
On the stock valuation, Chris, you and I definitely agree. A couple of questions. Just to be clear on the rollout of the 2020 disclosure, when we look at that, the lower gross margin associated with the TMI shutdown is actually earnings -- just to be clear, these are earnings-accretive, so we should think about the year-over-year to sort of negative comp as falling from the other 2 items? Is that correct?
Christopher Crane:
The TMI, Greg, it is EPS accretive.
Gregory Gordon:
So now that will be offset by $200 million of energy price and capacity revenues. But then, you also have the cost-cutting on Page 26 that we have to factor in to come up with a sort of a net impact from the Q3 call, right? There was a...
Jonathan Thayer:
That's correct. So there's a full breakout of O&M expenses that we detailed in the appendix. You'll see the impact both in '18 as well as '19 and beyond from Oyster as well as TMI.
Gregory Gordon:
Great. And you also said, you plan on retiring some impairment maturities now. Looking at the maturity schedule on Page 40, I see that Holdco, $6.3 billion of the Holdco debt, there's a $900 billion maturity -- $900 million maturity in 2020, $300 million in 2021. Should we think about that as the timing? Or is there other debt that's callable or revolver capacity that you can bring down in the interim?
Jonathan Thayer:
I apologize I'm turning those slides. So in terms of the holding company maturities, you should expect us to tilt more heavily towards holding company in '20 and '21. You will also see us pull -- retire some 365-day paper we have in '18 that retires in '19 and then you'll see us work down the ExGen maturities as we get up the curve as well.
Gregory Gordon:
Okay. So I have 1 for Joe Dominguez and 1 for Joe Nigro. Joe Dominguez, is it your expectation and, clearly, you can't speak for PJM. So is it your expectation to kind of get this stakeholder process completed at -- that may go through the enhanced liaison process? Or in fact, they would probably have to go through the enhanced liaison process to get a stakeholder process done in '18? Or is it too soon for us to sort of call that? And then the alternative, is it legally viable -- is the legally viable possibility that at the end of the resiliency proceedings that the FERC actually has the record in place to call PJM in to change its tariff?
Joseph Dominguez:
Yes. Let me answer the second question first. And just simply say yes. I think they may have to open in different proceeding, but obviously, they could issue a 206 order at any point in time. And we believe that they have sufficient record already to do so. Very clearly, PJM is going to supplement that record here in March, and I expect that other parties in their response, 30 days later, will do the same. Greg, it's my expectation that PJM is going to continue to their urge for us to do exactly that, to give it some direction to come in and resolve the price formation issues that it's identified. But at the same time, they have this alternative pathway that they're going to walk down in parallel with when they conclude the stakeholder process. And my expectation is that as the order of the tariffs that PJM continues to believe that they have significant price formation flaws. And they've said that repeatedly in many forums, then the next step for them is to bring it to FERC and utilize the enhanced Liaison Committee process if the stakeholder process doesn't work.
Gregory Gordon:
And then for Joe Nigro, the initial option parameters for the next capacity auction came out several days ago. There was a significant change in FERC capacity and into ComEd. And some concern from investors that perhaps, that would disadvantage the incumbent generation vis-à-vis your capacity price outcomes. Can you give us some color on your thinking there?
Joseph Nigro:
Greg, we expected to see an increase in both into Eastern PJM and into ComEd and increase into the import capability and it may have been slightly higher than what we expected. There were obviously other variable changes as well, when you think about the increase and the impact all of the things equal that could have on the demand curve and shifting the demand curve. We're still, like everyone else, in analyzing this. I think at the end of the day, that what's we've said for years. The big thing it's just going to come down to bidding behavior and it always does. So I -- there's a lot of variables in play here, including those changes to the imports, but the bidding behavior won't matter.
Joseph Dominguez:
It's Joe Dominguez, if I can just chime in. That sequel has moved around over the last few auctions. So we're going 1.7 gigawatts the other way now. A year ago, we had two options to go, 1 gigawatt of that was already in the transmission limit. So we've seen the zone separately toward work with these higher [indiscernible] numbers.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin of Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Julien Dumoulin:
I wanted to follow up a little bit more strategically on the ExGen side. Obviously, well done on Handley. Curious as to your thoughts about the desire to hold on to the Texas combined cycles. Can you read into some of the commentary around the desired to back that Constellation here? Or is there still kind of a broader thought process around looking for Generation we just kind of wanted you to elaborate on that.
Christopher Crane:
Those assets, as we've discussed in the past, are highly efficient and they're very good match for our load book in Texas. The capabilities, that we have, that heat rates on the ramping, they are very practical. Their capacity factors have been some of the highest for the CCGTs in Texas. So we'll continue to operate in this part of the fleet and be able to reap the benefits of their efficiency as we manage that book in Texas. As always, we look at all of our assets on an annual basis, but the previous review of those assets said they're more valuable in the fleet than not.
Julien Dumoulin:
Right. And then secondly, I know you commented on New Jersey with respect to legislation. But can you comment a little bit on how the Oyster Creek development reflects on the profitability of the nuclear units in that region? Just curious if you can give us a little bit of a sense of the latest on those assets and the profitability, maybe from an ROE perspective. Obviously, your peer in the region comments on that thing and current.
Christopher Crane:
The Oyster Creek decision was simply a site-specific. The market has tightened over the years in that location. But running at another year with losses in the investments that we would had to have made, was not financially prudent. Knowing that the reliability in the system can be sustained in that area without that asset, we're comfortable in, most importantly, we have an employee transition program that we're implementing that allows us, for those that are not at retirement and wish to retire, ability to grow into the rest of our vast fleet and continue to pursue their career. So employee-wise, right thing to do. Moving forward, allowing people to make the transition. And economic-wise, no sense in continuing for losses for another year. So it was an easy decision. The other assets have been openly discussed, as the challenges happen in that part of the market. And that's why we're pursuing and supporting our co-owner on that legislative agenda.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Stephen with Morgan Stanley.
Stephen Byrd:
Just wanted to hit on the retail business and just overall, get your sense for the competitive environment in the retail business. Any trends you're seeing on that side of the business?
Joseph Dominguez:
Steven, its Joe. I'll talk a bit briefly about that. You see the metrics on our business on Slide 7 and Jack talk to those in his comments -- prepared comments. And we still have the best and the largest customer-facing business in the industry and as recently is late December, and early January, our generation to load strategy continues to serve us well. The market remains competitive. It's still too early to see if what if any impact, the current cold snap or the previous cold snap had on competitive behavior. As we've said all along, we're going to remain disciplined to what we think is fair pricing and not just chase volume. What we have seen now from competitors, which is kind of interesting, is two things. One is, we've seen one of our large competitors back away in certain regions from selling a full pitched price for requirements products to the customers. And we will continue to do that as we have historically, and one that obviously all the commitments we have. In addition to that, we've seen some of our competitors try to pass through cost that we've honored through our contractual arrangements with our customers costs that we will bear. So I won't say we've seen the competitive aspect if the market change. And as I said, we'll remain disciplined, but we have seen some things from competitors that we haven't seen in the recent past, which may or may not lead to different outcomes in future.
Stephen Byrd:
Very helpful color. And just shifting over to the ZEC litigation in Illinois. We continue to sort of like your overall legal position. It seems like there's some chance that the court might actually kick the decision over the FERC effectively. Is that a fair reading as interims of a possibility? And what's your sense in terms of your outlook should sort of the decision go back to FERC?
Joseph Dominguez:
It's Joe Dominguez. Let me address the last one. I think all of the 5 FERC commissioners were asked during -- or excuse me, the 4 new commissioners were asked during confirmation hearings what their view is concerning the state programs. They've all indicated that they did not see the situation as something where FERC needed to really put a hold to these programs or claim preemption but rather that they could use tools like mitigation to address any impacts in the market. So we would expect that if the matter does go over to FERC consistent with the new testimony before the U.S. Senate, the commissioners would indicate that they could mitigate the market through their existing tools of that they would not be in favor of preemption. And quite obviously, plaintiffs in Illinois feel the same way and they've urged the court not to send it to FERC for that reason. In terms of your reading the argument, I think you're exactly right. [Indiscernible] brought in this question of primary jurisdiction which is a discretionary tool that allows the court has its discretion to send the matter to FERC. At this point, both parties agree to that.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Steve with Wolfe Research.
Steven Fleishman:
So first on the may be high level at ExGen. So obviously, you have the gross margin numbers and then 2020, they fall sort of out. Is it fair to say kind of at the high level, all the below the line stuff O&M interest as you're paying down debt, depreciation as your closing plants, or all those kind of offset? So you'll end up mitigating some chunk of that gross margin hit?
Jonathan Thayer:
Steve, so if you look at Slide 54, we provide the additional ExGen modeling data. And as we look at the ExGen's EPS profile out the curve, to your point, the lower depreciation, the lower operating O&M all leads to these retirements being accretive. So we should see strong and better than last quarter performance anticipated from ExGen as we look out the ERP.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay. And then one other question, just in the event that the energy price formation changes are just done at PJM through the enhanced liaison process, could you just clarify that the time frame on that in process?
Christopher Crane:
So again this is, as Greg said earlier, ultimately PJM's discretion when to pull the trigger on that. But right now, it's said to conclude its stakeholder process in Q3. At that point, PJM will have all the input from stakeholders. And as usual, we want to refine its proposals along the way. And at that point, in our view, we'll be in a position to make a filing with FERC.
Steven Fleishman:
And then how long FERC takes to rule, I guess, depends on -- that's FERC's call?
Christopher Crane:
That's FERC's call. This is a 206 proceeding so there's no mandatory clock like we see in the 205 proceedings.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Michael with Credit Suisse.
Michael Weinstein:
Hey, the target for ExGen is still 3.0 debt-to-EBITDA. Is that -- I mean considering that you're already below that, is that something that used to come down at some point? Or is there a reason why it would increase over time?
Jonathan Thayer:
So Michael, as you see the gross margin expectations for -- and EBITDA expectations for the ExGen business go down, that 2x nonrecourse or 2x recourse debt-to-EBITDA, 2.5x gross debt-to-EBITDA number will move up. We will be paying down debt as maturities come, but we'll also be shifting our focus to the holding company that using the flexibility we have around strong balance sheet of ExGen to target retirements of other portion of our good amount of holding company bonds as they mature.
Michael Weinstein:
I see. I mean what's the purpose of having a 3.0 target? Is there something you're trying to achieve with ExGen at that point?
Jonathan Thayer:
I think differentiation from our IPP peers, we have, I believe, the strongest balance sheet in the integrated space. That takes the risk of that overhang that we've seen, come pop up from time-to-time among semesters off the table that positions us to maintain a strong investment-grade rating from all the agencies. It's an important competitive advantage in the Constellation business. And as we clarified, the longevity of these nuclear assets, we believe, over time, that while we trade currently at 5x EBITDA from valuation standpoint, we are making the case that we should trade in line with our IPP peers, which should be 7x to 8x. So and the market is not recognizing that now, but certainly it's all part of our strategy to accomplish that.
Michael Weinstein:
Great that you guys mentioned the enhanced liaison process. Just wondering, if that's something that you simply expect PJM to use? Or is that's something that PJM is telling you they will be using for sure?
Joseph Dominguez:
As I said in earlier, PJM has made no announcement in that regard. The point I'm trying to make here is that PJM and a lot of different audiences has now come forward and said we have major flaw in price formation. And the PJM work historically, where it has significant issues in its market design faster performance being the most recent example. As we use the enhanced liaison committee process mechanism to get matters to FERC where stakeholders can agree on supporting a particular proposal. Given the gravity of this issue on the significance of it, and its connection to the resilience issues that FERC is already looking at, it would be our expectation that PJM would follow its strong words to the U.S. Senate, to FERC and others, and proceed to making a filing at the conclusion of the stakeholder process. That's the point I'm making.
Operator:
And our final question comes from Jonathan with Deutsche Bank.
Jonathan Arnold:
Strategy-wise, I mean, Chris, Jack, you've both alluded to the value disconnect. And it's hard to imagine that you could be doing that much more to execute the current plan, which seems to be going along. What's your level of patience to see the market reflect this under the current kind of dual strategy and just can you give us a refresh on how you're thinking?
Christopher Crane:
As I've talked about this for a couple of years, our patience is probably not at a high point. But we understand it's our responsibility to deliver on these results and improve the [indiscernible]. We took on 5.5 years ago the road to greater regulated revenues coming in, greater certainty around balance sheet, total optimization of the gen-to-load match at Constellation, while running a world-class operations and efficient from a cost-standpoint operations. And today's call, reflects that. But let me go a little bit further, and take a minute to give you more details on why we see our stock undervalued. Simplistically, with the $3.05 midpoint for our 2018 EPS, the stock trades at around 12% PE versus our cheapest comp at peg, which is 15% and the regulated utility complex around 16%. Even on a consensus for 2019 and 2020, we trade around 12% to 13% versus peg, roughly around 15%, and the utilities, roughly around 15% to 16%. With our dividend growth at a competitive 5% rate, a 3.7% dividend yield is similar to much of the others in the group. And our utility operations accounting for 70% of the 2020 EPS, if you're using midpoint of our utility guidance range and consolidated Exelon estimates from the Street. We look more similar to the business model to our peers than the 2% to 4% PE multiple discount that's -- that we see or suggested. If you think about our valuation, looking at the business is more specifically, our regulated utilities less holding company expense implies a fair market value of $31 to $32 per share using a consensus PE in 2019 and 2020. When I think about our utilities growth base, at 7%, our EPS growth at 6% to 8%, which we expect to continue, and we have, through this conversation, next year from lower risk T&D utilities having the mechanisms covering 70% of our rate base additions that and 70% of our load decoupled, so we have less volumetric risk, but collective -- our collective earnings of 9.5% ROE, with strong credit metrics exceeding agency requirements. And doing all this without meeting outside equity to fund any of this growth. I think they should be treated as a premium utilities for the valuation, but the $31 to $32 is based off a peer valuation, which leaves us with an implied value of ExGen of approximately $4 per share, which we believe is entirely too low. The implied multiples for the business at around 6x PE and 5x EBIT and EBITDA, respectively, using our disclosure in the Street estimates, looking at the IPP is trading at 7 to 8x EBITDA today, we try to bridge the valuation disconnects, especially when you consider our leverages well below our 3x net to EBITDA target at 2.5x and it's really running at about 2x on recourse debt. Our FFO debt is going to stay north of 40% -- FFO to debt ratio is going to stay north of 40% due to planning horizon as ZEC programs in New York and Illinois have preserved most of our at-risk nuclear plants in our Constellation business provides a gen-to-load match advantage and our discipline around bidding margins is proving wise again as we are starting to hear others taking on pay in the recent months. Our free cash flow Generation from this business is $7.6 billion over the next 4 years, which represents more than half of the implied enterprise value at ExGen where the assets with operational visibility well into the 2030s. We believe we have done a lot of -- in this in the past years to create value for the shareholders, where the stock is outperformed. We do not see the share price reflecting anywhere near the value we see. We are focused on executing this long-term commitments in our value proposition and near term, our 2018 business priorities, which we believe will deliver substantial value to our investors. So yes, I feel strongly about the stock being achievable.
Jonathan Arnold:
You sound impatient with the market too to me.
Christopher Crane:
Jonathan, that doesn't even build in the fact that where there is price formation in New Jersey, the facts, in fact there are lot of incremental catalysts even beyond the robust story that Chris just described in the valuation where we currently see. So this is the strongest, long-range plan that we've had since coming together as Constellation and Exelon. And we're excited about the outlook, the market is just not paying for it right now.
Jonathan Arnold:
What kind of agree with you, but I guess, so how long do you give us?
Christopher Crane:
But we're not going anywhere.
Operator:
And at this time, I would like to turn it back over to Chris Crane for any closing remarks.
Christopher Crane:
Well, again I want to thank you all for participating today. I want to thank the team here and the employees of Exelon for really delivering on a strategy that's taken a few years to get here, but we are operating in all cylinders and appreciate the dedication. So with that, I'll close it out and thank you.
Operator:
And this concludes today's conference call. We thank you for your participation, and ask that you please disconnect your line.
Executives:
Dan Eggers – Senior Vice President of Investor Relations Chris Crane – President and Chief Executive Officer Jack Thayer – Chief Financial Officer Joe Dominguez – Executive Vice President, Government and Regulatory Affairs and Public Policy Denis O'Brien – Senior Executive Vice President, Exelon Corporation; Chief Executive Officer, Exelon Utilities
Analysts:
Greg Gordon – Evercore ISI Jonathan Arnold – Deutsche Bank Steve Fleishman – Wolfe Research Julien Dumoulin-Smith – Bank of America Stephen Byrd – Morgan Stanley Praful Mehta – Citigroup
Operator:
Good morning. Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Exelon Corporation 2017 Q3 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. Mr. Dan Eggers, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations for Exelon, you may begin your conference.
Dan Eggers:
Thank you, Tony. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our third quarter 2017 earnings conference call. Leading the call today are Chris Crane, Exelon’s President and Chief Executive Officer; and Jack Thayer, Exelon’s Chief Financial Officer. They’re joined by other members of Exelon’s senior management team who will be available to answer your questions following our prepared remarks. We issued our earnings release this morning along with the presentation, both of which can be found in the Investor Relations section of Exelon’s website. The earnings release and other matters which we discuss during today’s call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ from our forward-looking statements based on factors and assumptions discussed in today’s material and comments made during this call. Please refer to today’s 8-K and Exelon’s other SEC filings for discussions of risk factors and factors that may cause results to differ from management’s projections, forecasts and expectations. Today’s presentation also includes references to adjusted operating earnings and other non-GAAP measures. Please refer to the information contained in the appendix of our presentation and our earnings release for reconciliations between the non-GAAP measures and the nearest equivalent GAAP measures. I’ll now turn the call over to Chris Crane, Exelon’s CEO.
Chris Crane:
Thanks, Dan, and good morning and thank you, all, for joining us. We had a solid third quarter of 2017, with GAAP earnings of $0.85 per share, up versus the prior year. Our adjusted EPS was $0.85 as well, reaching the midpoint of our guidance. Strong utility and Genco performance more than offset headwinds from the mild summer weather that impacted our PECO, ACE utilities as well as volumes at Constellation. As we head into year-end, we have a lot to be encouraged about. Our regulatory utilities are continuing to execute very well, running ahead of plan for the year operationally, we are performing in top quartile across most performance measures. We are registering significant improvements at PHI, even relative to last year. We are doing exactly what we said we would do as part of our merger commitments, improving performance and reliability for our customers. We are executing on our CapEx program for 2017. We’re excited about the valuable technologies investments we’re deploying to our customers’ benefit. The FERC is making strides to address pressing resiliency needs for the power system, we see that in a two-step process. Starting with empowering PJM to fix deficiencies in the power price formation by the summer of 2018, and then a longer term FERC process to address resiliency. The Department of Energy Section 403 filing noted a clause in the current price formation are part of the reason that nuclear units, the most resilient and cost effective Zero Emission resources in PJM are being lost of premature retirements. Given our size of our PJM fleet, each dollar or megawatt hour of distortion caused by a flood market design undermines the Genco’s economics by approximately $135 million per year on an unhedged basis. We believe that DOE’s focus on price formation will lead to a successful process at FERC that will eliminate these distortions by the summer of 2018. We have not reflected the value of these reforms in our forecast that we’re showing you today, but we do believe they could be a significant positive for us starting in 2018. Finally, we are executing on our management plan, focused on strengthening our operation and continuing to find efficiencies. To that end, we lowered our costs by $250 million on a run-rate basis in 2020, primarily at the Genco, including today’s announcement we’re in our cost, our O&M cost versus planned by over $700 million annually from initiatives identified since 2015. We continue to challenge our businesses to evaluate cost and today’s announcements savings are part of that ongoing effort. We’re confident in our previous announced plan to generate $6.8 billion of free cash flow at the Genco through 2020. That will fund our utility growth, grow the dividend and meet our debt reduction commitments. It is this deliberate work that positions us well to face some headwinds. After a series of mild summers and winters, we have seen decline in power market volatility, which is weighing on the forward price – power prices, impacting the Constellation business. Just as we experienced during periods of low volatility, we’re again seeing less disciplined by some of the wholesale and retail competitors in the market as they become more aggressive with their pricing. We have been through low discipline, low volatility periods before, and they end up in the same way. Those without discipline fail, that is when we can grow our market share by winning business a good margins or acquiring low business is offered for sale. We expect volatility to return to the markets with normal weather conditions, which will benefit our Constellation and Generation business. In the meantime, we remain disciplined in our bidding strategy and remain behind our ratable hedging in our generation. Last week, the Illinois Power Authority shifted its schedule for finalizing the procurement of the Illinois ZEC contracts by one month from late December 2017 to late January of 2018. Based on our assumptions, this delay will shift $0.09 of EPS from 2017 to 2018. Even with the unanticipated EPS shift, we’re narrowing our 2017 guidance to $2.55 to $2.75 per share, keeping us on path to the midpoint of our original guidance at the utilities outperformed our plan. Moving on to Slide 6, I want to highlight our excellent operational performance for the quarter. The color block chart continues to show strong quartile – top quartile performance across all of the utilities in most categories. I particularly want to call out the tremendous improvements at PHI compared to last year. With the 22% improvement in reliability, with PHI on track for their best year ever in reliability and a 17% improvement in speed of restoration of outages. Performance improvements like these really highlight the benefits going to our customers with the integration of PHI into Exelon. And finally, as in prior quarters, our best-in-class nuclear and power fleets performed with very high reliability in the quarter. Moving to Slide 7. Now let me turn to the proposed rule issued by Secretary Perry in September. The order is aimed at protecting our customers from outages, resulting from man-made and natural interruptions on the gas system by preserving resilient generation sources, including nuclear. We commend the Secretary for focusing attention on the need to reform the energy markets, and ensure that our customers continue to benefit from the resilient system. FERC is currently considering the DOE’s proposal, with the first round of comments filed on October 21, reply comments due on November 7 and the final order scheduled for December 11. We have shared our perspective on this important policy initiative. First, we think the FERC should direct PJM to evaluate and correct any deficiencies they see in energy price formation, which have put baseload generation asset at a disadvantage. We believe timely action on price formation could be implemented by as early as mid-2018. These reforms will be valuable first step in preserving resilient baseload generation as well as delivering economic and environmental benefits, the nuclear power uniquely provide. We expect 135 terawatt hours of our generation output in PJM to benefit from price uplift that were layer in over coming years at the existing hedges roll off. Second, we think FERC can take on – take the time to fully evaluate market reforms that will ensure power supply resiliency. This is a multi-fast that exercise that should take into account the cost and impact to our customers and economy of the long-term interruption of a natural gas fuel supply – interruption of the natural gas fuel supply. We believe these are important issues that need to be addressed for our country’s future, but they require more analysis to ensure the right reforms are implemented. We are encouraged by the process being made at FERC and PJM, support for price formation changes. Between these efforts and state initiatives, we’re optimistic about the path to preserve nuclear power plants and their critical economic environmental and reliability roles that they have in the communities that we serve. I’ll now turn the call over to Jack to take us through the numbers.
Jack Thayer:
Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone. Turning to Slide 8. For the third quarter, our adjusted non-GAAP operating earnings were $0.85 per share, which was at the midpoint of our guidance range of $0.80 to $0.90 per share. Exelon’s utilities less Holdco expenses delivered a combined $0.49 per share. Versus our plan, utility results were slightly favorable due to lower O&M and reduced storm activity over the third quarter. Generation earned $0.36 per share, which was a little behind our plan. The third quarter was hurt by mild weather that reduced Constellation load volumes and a lack of price volatility, which reduced optimization opportunities. We did offset some weakness for payable O&M timing. Turning to Slide 9. Our $0.85 per share in the third quarter of this year was $0.06 per share lower than the third quarter of 2016. Overall, utilities benefited from improved earned ROEs and higher rate base, partly offset by adverse year-over-year weather impacts. ExGen was down primarily on lower power prices, lower load volumes due to mild weather and fewer optimization opportunities, partially offset by the addition of New York ZEC revenue and higher capacity prices. Turning to Slide 10. We are updating our 2017 guidance range. We had expected the Illinois power authority to finalize procurement for the ZEC programs in December, which based on our assumptions, would have contributed $0.09 of EPS in 2017 since the revenues are retroactive to the beginning of program on June 1. However, last week, the Illinois power authority updated their schedule pushing the final contract date to January 30, 2018. The delayed timing has no impact on the amount we expect to receive or our free cash flow outlook. But it will change the timing of earnings recognition, shifting EPS into 2018. With that in mind, we are updating our 2017 EPS guidance range, heightening the top and bottom of the range by a nickel. So we’re now at $2.55 to $2.75 per share. Strong performance of utilities is allowing us to still target the midpoint of our original guidance range of absorbing the $0.09 of ZEC timing impact. Moving to Slide 11. Our utilities continue to execute delivering strong earned returns in the quarter, in addition to the robust operational performance Chris already discussed. Looking at the trailing 12 month book ROEs, we saw improvement at PHI compared to last quarter across all jurisdictions except ACE, where they roll out favorable weather in the third quarter of 2016 for the less beneficial summer weather this year. Our efforts to improve operations and the contributions from the rate cases resolved over the past year are driving a better earned ROEs at PHI. For the legacy Exelon utilities, our earned ROEs remained over 10%, but abated a bit from last quarter with less favorable year-over-year weather impacts at ComEd and PECO that you can see on Slide 9 quarter call. Overall Exelon utilities ROEs are still nearly 10%, including PHI. We’re proud of the performance of our overall utility business and we still see opportunity to improve our returns at the PHI utilities as we bring their performance to levels more consistent with the rest of our utilities. On Slide 12, we update the status of our rate cases. At Atlantic City Electric, we reached a settlement for the second case in a row. The settlement provides a 4% rate increase, with new rates implemented earlier than what would have occurred if the case was fully litigated. The timing rate making in New Jersey is helping us make beneficial investments for our customers. While still a work-in-progress, the investments are having an impact with outages down 33% and average customer outage time down 35% compared to 2011. We also received an order for Pepco Maryland that granted an electric distribution base rate increase of $32.4 million based on an allowed ROE of 9.5%. The improved electric delivery rates became effective on October 20, 2017. We filed rate cases in the third quarter for Delmarva Delaware electric and gas and expect orders by the third quarter of 2018. We’re proud of the hard work from our utilities and regulatory teams. These efforts are helping to bring PHI’s earned ROEs allowed levels while we simultaneously improve performance for our customers. More details on the rate cases and their schedules can be found on Slides 34 to 42 in the Appendix. Turning to Slide 13. We regularly update you on our progress on the regulatory front, but another essential aspect of the business is a effectively deploying capital on behalf of our customers. We’re currently on course to deploy our targeted $5.3 billion of capital in 2017. We’ve highlighted on this slide, two of the many notable projects we’re developing to benefit our communities and customers. The first is Pepco’s Waterfront Substation. This substation is part of the larger capital grid project and is currently under construction with expected completion in 2017. Once complete, it will improve reliability to existing customers and support the plan growth in the Capitol Riverfront and Southwest Waterfront areas in the next 20 to 30 years. The other project I’d like to highlight is ComEd’s Grand Prairie Gateway transmission line that was energized earlier this year. It’s a $200 million, 60 mile-long transmission line in Northern Illinois that provide structural benefits to the market, resulting in lower energy and congestion charges to customers and an increased import capability of approximately 1,000 megawatts. Over the next 15 years, customers collectively will save over $120 million and carbon emissions will be reduced by nearly 500,000 tons. These are just a couple of examples of how we continue to invest prudently across all our utilities and look forward to sharing more as we go forward. Slide 14 provides our gross margin update for ExGen. Before I get into the market developments impacting gross margins, let me first discuss the impacts from a shift and revenue recognition for the Illinois ZEC from 2017 to 2018, which we also show in the Waterfalls in Slide 21 in the appendix. The capacity in ZEC line declines by $150 million in 2017 and increases by a $150 million in 2018, offset by $50 million in other capacity declines, which I’ll discuss in a moment. The rest of the bars help to then isolate movements in underline gross margin not related to ZEC timing. In 2017, gross margin is down $50 million compared to last quarter, partially reflecting the effect of the mild summer and reduced optimization opportunities. We are highly hedged for the rest of this year and are well balanced for our generation to load matching strategy. Turning to 2018 and 2019, separate from the Illinois ZEC timing, our gross margin is down $200 million for each year and can be bucketed into two categories. The first relates business and our unhedged power position. We are lowering our assumptions from MISO and New York capacity prices based on recent spot year options and bilateral fields in the market. This lower the capacity in ZEC line by $50 million on a rounded basis from last quarter. For 2018, the line shows up as a positive $100 million after the timing uplift from $150 million of Illinois ZEC, while the $50 million decline in 2019 just reflects the lower outlook for past revenues. During the third quarter, we also saw declines in energy prices, including some adverse news and basis differentials in the PJM east sum, which costs another $50 million in 2018 and 2019. However, with the recent rally in power prices, we have already recovered about half of the $100 million of 2019 gross margin declines for Generation. We also see $100 million decline in gross margins in 2018 and 2019 from the Constellation business, reflected in the lower power new business to go live. A series of mild summers and winters have contributed to reduced power market volatility, which in turn is impacting the competitiveness of our load business. As we’ve witnessed in prior periods with low price volatility, some of our competitors are mispricing risk in an effort to win business. In the wholesale load business, we’re seeing other players mispricing risks as we consider the market risk from weather volatility, basis variability and the likely impact of energy market reforms that Chris talked about earlier. Against this backdrop, we are clearing at margins near the low end of historical realizations. In the C&I business, the consolidation of the suppliers since the polar vortex has led to better margin discipline with unit margins holding consistent with prior years. We are however, seeing revenue renewal rates compared to last couple of years, moving from something closer to 80% to low 70%. These lower renewal rates, we still expect our volumes to be flat year-over-year whereas our previous guidance assumes higher renewal rates that will drive volume growth to Constellation in 2018 and 2019. Notably, even against the challenged market backdrop, we’re holding volumes and margins flat, which is a testament to the strength of our retail platform and our disciplined approach to bidding business. The updated gross margins for 2018 and 2019 incorporates C&I renewal rates from the low 70s and the wholesale margins hovering around the bottom end of what we’ve realized over time. We’ve been through these periods of low load pricing, lower load price in the past and as previously created opportunities for us. A return to normal weather will inject some power market volatility, which will positively impact forward power prices for Generation. Retailers and wholesalers in mispriced risk have consistently been driven from the business when we go from a period of low volatility to a volatility event. When the market corrects, we’ll be there to win business at good margins and grow volumes and market share, just as we had in the past. Even against the current market backdrop, Constellation continues to generate strong earnings and free cash flow. Our gen-to-load matching strategy remains it competitive advantage relative to our peers, contributing positive margin and providing a vehicle to bring our generation output to market in a disciplined manner. From a hedging perspective, we ended the quarter approximately 11% to 14% behind our ratable hedging program in 2018 and 10% to 13% behind ratable in 2019 when considering cross-commodity hedges. We remain comfortable being more open when we look at market fundamentals. Spot natural gas prices this year at $3 per Mcf, which is $0.50 higher than last year in spite of mild weather this past winter and summer. However, these higher prices have provided only modest uplift to spot power prices this summer, while the forward prices have decreased slightly. We think that a return to more normal weather and volatility in the market will help reverse this. And as Chris discussed, we see a path power market reforms that represent real value uplift for us. We’re maintaining a additional link to be able to monetize these reforms. Turning to Slide 15. We continually challenge our organization to find operating efficiencies and focus on managing our cost. To that end, we’re announcing another wave of O&M cost reductions, building on previous years’ efforts. We will ramp these new initiatives over the next two years, as shown on the lower-right table, reaching a $250 million annual run rate in 2020. The savings will come primarily from ExGen and the corporate center. If you look at this initiative together with the programs we’ve announced since 2015, we’ll strip out over $700 million of annual run rate cost providing significant earnings of free cash flow benefits. Turning to Slide 16. We appreciate that there are many puts and takes this year in ExGen, but have both benefited on our free cash flow outlook through 2020. When we take into account the movement in power price forwards through the end of October, updated gross margin outlook for Constellation, the benefit of further cost cuts, the early closure of TMI and exit of EGTP plants and changes to base CapEx in working capital associated with all these business updates, we remain confident in the free cash flow outlook and capital allocation commitments we made at the beginning of the year. We’re also committed to meeting or beating our 3 times debt-to-EBITDA target for ExGen’s balance sheet, which we will meet over planning horizon. On the fourth quarter call, we will roll forward the free cash flow outlook for the next planning period. And with that, I’ll turn the call back to Chris.
Chris Crane:
Thanks, Jack. Turning to Slide 17, I want to take a moment to highlight the contributions made by Exelon and our employees to help the impact by hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria. Exelon utilities sent more than 2,200 employees and contractors and support personnel from our six utilities to help with the recovery efforts at Hurricane Irma. Our crews travel to Florida and Georgia where they, for more than two weeks, worked in very difficult conditions. We’re very proud of our employees and the hard work that they do to help the communities come back from after these disasters. A very special thanks to all those who helped in the restoration and support efforts. Exelon employees also stepped up from a volunteer perspective. Our employees have donated their time and resources to communities impacted by the storms. We also had a number of our Constellation employees in Houston directly displaced by the storms and to see coworkers come to their aid illustrates the value that we embody here at Exelon. Slide 18, we want to reinforce our value proposition, which remains the foundation of our commitment to our investors. We’ve continued to grow the utilities rate base at 6.5% and the regulated EPS to 6% to 8% annually through 2020, underpinning the capital investments that directly benefit the customers in each of our jurisdictions. We continue to use free cash flow generated at the Genco to fund incremental equities at the utilities and pay down debt over the next four years at ExGen in the holding company. We’re focused on optimizing the value of our ExGen business by seeking fair compensation for our carbon-free generation fleet, closing uneconomic plants, selling assets where it makes sense to accelerate our debt reduction plans, and maximizing our value through gen-to-load matching strategies. We continue to focus on sustaining strong investment-grade credit metrics and grow our dividend in a stable consistent manner. As many of you are aware, our dividend growth as of October end gets for 2.5% annually from 2016 through 2018. We are working with our board and expect to provide an update on a multiyear outlook for the dividend growth plan as part of our planning and budgeting process that are undertaking currently. Before I go to questions, I want to come back to where we started off in the call. We have a number of positives underlying our outlook. The utilities are growing and executing well. We are confident that the FERC actions around resiliency will facilitate needed power price reforms in PJM that will fairly compensate our generating assets. We continue to improve operations where we’re finding ways to run our business more efficiently and taking out an additional $250 million in cost as discussed. And we’re still on track to generate $6.8 billion of free cash flow through 2020 at ExGen that will support our utility growth, reduce our debt and facilitate growing our dividend. Thank you again for your interest and now we’re ready for your questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And your first question comes from the line of Greg Gordon from Evercore ISI.
Chris Crane:
Hey, Greg good morning.
Greg Gordon:
So just to summarize here, you gave us a negative adjustment on several – I think ExGen that totaled $200 million, but since that mark, you’ve seen $50 million come back. So 2019 is negative $150 million and if you achieved your cost-cutting goals, you essentially have eliminated that. And so we’re at the push in 2019 with those offset, is that correct?
Jack Thayer:
Yes, Greg. And I think as you think about it and you listen on our comments on the low volatility period we’re in, we believe that with the return to normal weather and even potentially future volatility events that, that’s decline in Constellation business could prove temporary. Obviously, the $250 million are permanent cost savings and capitalize all in terms of value creation.
Greg Gordon:
Okay. So as per usual protocol, you’re using the current forward curves for power – what the current margin outlook looks like for retail, you’re not assuming any changes, no volatility premium coming back in the market, no PJM price reform, et cetera?
Joe Dominguez:
Hi, Greg its Joe. Yes, we are using the current forward curves for power. I think the big thing to note on the retail side and Jack said this in his script, when we did our planning at the first of the year, our renewal rates for C&I power were up close to 80%. As was the case back in 2012 and 2013, we have seen a downturn in most renewal rates down close to the 70%. And we’re marking this closer to that 70% number. I think the big thing though is back in 2012 and 2013, we saw power – C&I power margins dipped below $2 per megawatt hour. And we’ve said historically our origination margins for that business are somewhere between $2 and $4. We’re still within that $2 to $4 range. So I think the big thing, the takeaway is, we’re going to serve about 200 million-megawatt hours of load this year across our platform between retail and wholesale. And we expect to do the same thing next year. The thing is, we’re just not going to achieve the growth that we expected in our C&I power business. And as Chris said and Jack said, the reason for that is, we don’t think it’s prudent to chase the market. And we’re going to remain disciplined what we think value is and that has served us well historically and quite frankly, has allowed us to acquire companies a few times as well. So we’ll continue to remain disciplined.
Greg Gordon:
Thanks. Sorry, go ahead.
Chris Crane:
I’ve just said so, the beginning of the question, all the numbers that you hear are on the gross margin are marked at the end of third quarter. So it’s the end of September 29 or 31, whatever the market closed on.
Greg Gordon:
Got you. One – two more questions. One, looking at Slide 20, your cash flow profile, looks slightly better and looks like it’s mainly coming from the utilities and specifically from ComEd. Can you comment on what the changes in the improved cash flow profile there?
Chris Crane:
So it’s primarily related to the collection of the ZEC regulatory asset as well as cash taxes.
Greg Gordon:
Okay. Final question, when looking at your – at the value proposition you guys are delivering, if we get PJM price formation improvements and you hit on your other financial goals, you’ll start to have a earnings growth profile that looks more comparable to the regulated peer group. They trade at 18 times earnings you’re trading at 14 times current expectations. But your dividend growth – their dividend growth rates average around 5% and yours is 2.5%. I know you said you’re reviewing this, but what do you need to see in terms of your financial outlook to be able to close or eliminate that dividend growth half gap, because I think it’s one amongst several things that keeps your stock from trading at a higher valuation?
Chris Crane:
Yes, great. We do believe we’re undervalued. And everything that we’re doing is to drive that improvement in valuation. As you can see from the free cash flow, the debt reduction plan, the recovery and rate case, we’re positioning ourselves much better for a potential to have the board conversation in the upcoming LRP planning process to evaluate the dividend. And our expectation is – and has been since we have to cut the dividend four years ago is to get it back to build the business on a strong balance sheet to get the dividend to be in line with our peers. And that is our pursuit and as you can see from these numbers, things are improving that have us – able to have a much more positive conversation with the board. Ultimately, it’s the board’s discretion, but that’s where we want to be.
Greg Gordon:
Thank you very much. Have a great morning.
Chris Crane:
Thanks, Greg.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jonathan Arnold from Deutsche Bank.
Jonathan Arnold:
Good morning, guys.
Chris Crane:
Good morning.
Jonathan Arnold:
I wanted to just make sure, at the beginning, Chris, I believe you just gave $1 of market price improvement sensitivity based of your volumes to PJM price reform was $135 million. Did I hear that correctly?
Chris Crane:
Yes. For a $1 of fully opened position in PJM, 135 terawatt hours, $135 million, so you can – that was just the dollar reference.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. So my question is, I mean, as you look at the kinds of reforms that PJM is considering in flexible unit and the like, what’s your view of the range of potential uplift to any translated into ATC basis that we would rather than view?
Joe Dominguez:
Hey Jonathan, this is Joe. We’re still waiting to see some additional details from PJM. But – and so we’re not going to put out a number until we get all of those details. But I have seen the reports that a number of you have compiled on this subject with the range that is somewhere between $2 and $5 ATC movement as a result of the elimination and discrimination. And I think that’s the right range to be thinking about and probably the middle part of that range makes a lot of sense to us.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay, that’s helpful. Thank you for that. And then Chris, you’ve said, I think earlier in the year, this dividend revisit in the longer-range growth outlook would be a Q1. And I believe what you’ve just said is pretty consistent with that if you do at is part of the LRP. Is that correct?
Chris Crane:
Yes. I think we’ve said back in 2016 when we have our dividend strategy, we want to give you a multi-year plan. We gave you 2016 through 2018. That would be the time in the first quarter to be updating, in my belief, set the board’s discussion, and where we go with that, but that would be our timing in my mind in our current plans and communicating with all of you.
Jonathan Arnold:
What should we be expecting you to give us next week the EEI. No, no [indiscernible]
Chris Crane:
Yes. EEI, I think we’ll be able to have more of the one-on-one details, get into more of the details on the capital investments and the growth and the rate case strategies as we improve the customer experience at the utilities. We’ll also have more time to go into the detail on the numbers on the free cash flow, debt reduction plans, and the optimization of gen-to-load growth. I’m sure more people are going to want to talk in detail about the basis for our 250, and we can do the deep dive on that, but it will be detailed on what you’re seeing today and an opportunity to have some one-on-one dialogue about it.
Jonathan Arnold:
Great, thank you. And then I guess, just one other – did you have any thoughts? I know it’s all a bit moving target you’ve been talking. But what’s your level of confidence that you’re going to get to things that you want to see out of the tax reform?
Chris Crane:
Well, its 11:15, I think or 11:30 Eastern when we see the draft. And we’ll have to rally together with EEI and take a look at how – we as a sector have been positioned. Kind of early to say now if you’ve gone over the last 24 hours, things have been all over the board. So I think to speculate, but we work together in a sector at EEI, and I’m sure Tom Kuhn will be getting us all together and figure out. Our next steps as of the rewrites as they discuss our finalized and getting our input as a sector in there. We’re totally unified at EEI on what we’re looking for and what we think will benefit our customers the most in tax reform. So more to come on that, and maybe we’ll have a little bit of insight of that in EEI as we work through the weekend and see the effect on the proposed and still we got to go back to this is proposed. You don’t know what’s going to happen in D.C., but we’ll be ready to talk about it more, as not only a company, but as a sector.
Jonathan Arnold:
Sure. I’m sorry to put you on spot on that on a real-time issue.
Chris Crane:
No, that’s okay.
Jonathan Arnold:
Thank you, guys.
Chris Crane:
Sure.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Steve Fleishman from Wolfe Research.
Steve Fleishman:
Yes. Hey, good morning, Chris.
Chris Crane:
Hey, Steve.
Steve Fleishman:
So just – curious how are you strategizing on your retail business with respect to these potential DOE, PJM changes? And are you doing things to make sure that you don’t have like a big delay in capturing the uptick because of retail hedges, like are you making sure your back to backing your retail and the like I mean just curious how you’re thinking about that?
Joe Dominguez:
Hey Steve, good morning. It’s a Joe. We are thinking about that and I think the first thing is, when as Jack said in his script and we said for a while, we’re carrying the longer position relative to our ratable sales plan. So we have the opportunity to capture any upside associated with price increases related to the reforms you’re talking about. I think specifically though the retail, there’s a couple elements to that. The first one is, we’ve done some preliminary remodeling and we take into account kind of the seasonality as well as the differences between on and off peak. So we try to be more surgical in just saying, we’re going to buyback this. We have a view of the things we need to do. I think as it specifically relates to our retail contracts there is two elements. One is obviously, we have contracts from the books already. And we have some hedges on the books already, so there will be a feathering in effect to the value proposition of this. But most importantly, from our perspective, I think one of the things we offer our customers, and it’s really important, is transparency. And what I mean by that is, when they’re signing a contract with us, they completely understand what they’re doing and what the components of that are fixed-price and the components that are going to be passed through in time. And I’m not sure that’s always the case across the industry. So from our perspective, there’s lot of elements, and we are thinking about it and we are really managing our portfolio from a natural long position as well as the seasonality and the products. And we’re keeping the customer in mind.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. And just in terms of just the – that’s helpful. In terms of just the power new business change that you made, what – your sense in making the change. Do you feel like you’ve encompassed kind of a pretty conservative case here at this point, so that this doesn’t become like a series of changes?
Chris Crane:
Yes. I think – yes. The answer to your question is, yes. We think we’ve covered it and I’ll tell you why. When you look at it, it’s really all driven by load business. About 60% of it’s on our retail C&I business at about 40%. It’s associated with our wholesale polar business and there’s really two elements that is different one on each side. On the retail side, as we said, our renewal rates are lower than we expected them to be, but our margins are well within the range that we expect it. And that’s very different when we have these challenges five years ago, where our margins and our renewal rates both dropped pretty appreciably. On the wholesale side, it’s much more of a margin story, where the volumes are there, but the margins are lower than they’ve been historically. I mean, it’s a very competitive environment. Quite frankly, it’s being driven by a lot of smaller players on the retail side and not the bigger players. On the wholesale side, we’ve seen kind of competition across the spectrum. But we’re confident that we’ve captured the changes we need to make.
Steve Fleishman:
Great. And I just finally – I guess in the hindsight, congratulations on adding your Texas gas plants months before all the coal plants shut. But – I’m sure you planned that out. But did you plan that out? But, I’m just curious given that fact just have your thoughts on the Texas kind of market and potential there changed for you? How you’re thinking about that?
Joe Dominguez:
It’s Joe again. And we’ve talked about this for a while. When you look at ERCOT reports on what they thought reserve margins were going to be. We never really thought they were going to get the generation group that they expected. And in our own modeling, we have sensitivities, we ran some sensitivities looking at the possibility for retirements. And if you look at our positioning in ERCOT, we’re carrying a long position there relative to our ratable plan as well. And we see the opportunity for volatility. I think this summer, we’ve skewed the some, obviously, with the problems with the hurricane in August and, quite frankly, the biggest thing down there as we continue to see load growth, which is really important. And we don’t see a lot of kind of newbuild of gas generation. You have continued growth on the renewable side, but it’s more concentrated in South Texas than it is West Texas. And when you put all that together, we see the opportunity for increased volatility, and we think we have a fleet that will benefit that.
Steve Fleishman:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Bank of America.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey good morning.
Chris Crane:
Good morning, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey, so couple of quick questions, may be going back a little bit on some of the previous discussion here. But with respect to the dividend, how do you think do you think about the stability of cash in the various businesses the various businesses? Obviously, there’s a certain legacy here, but how do you think about the stability from ZEC’s and the retail business? And how do you think about that, at least into the conversation around dividend policy? i.e., can you bank on cash flows out of businesses that are not utilities and/or think about of a higher payout on the core utilities?
Chris Crane:
Sure. So – as we’ve talked about 4 years ago, 4.5 years ago now, as we restructure the dividend and put our strategy and our focus on really growing the utility business through the acquisition of BGE and then the acquisition of PHI. And it was to theoretically watch the growth in those businesses and have a 70% – 65% to 70% dividend policy, theoretically, at the utilities. Now you know that’s going to cycle during different growth periods. But that was the way we had the dividend set to grow. In the first couple of years, we were starting to get closer to that, giving that accomplished in the early 20s. And so that’s when we came up with the growth policy at 2.5%. As you can see, the utilities are continuing to grow, although right now, it’s taking cash infusion – equity infusion from the Holdco through the Genco. But they’re continuing to grow. So our stability of the dividend is very well anchored. Our growth – potential growth for the dividend is well anchored. As we come through the last couple of years and started to see more reliable or consistent cash flows from the Genco on programs that compensate for the other benefits besides just the energy, you’re seeing a potential that, that can be a dependable cash flow, that can be used for potential return of value to the shareholders. So that’s the way we’re looking at it and we’re presenting it to the board, but the cyclical nature of the commodity market will not leave us, but the certainty of that certain elements on those revenue streams give us the opportunity to look at the world a little bit differently. So that’s how we’ll continue to model it, and we’ve gained greater flexibility with programs like the ZEC.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Excellent. And then, let me ask you this. With respect to the utilities, right? I know we’ve had a lot of conversation on the other side of the business. But obviously, you’ve had some reasonable success of late in ComEd around – how do you say, scaling some of the smart grid efforts? How do you see the ability scale that further? And obviously, this might be getting ahead of the annual process and the CapEx budget, et cetera. But maybe this is more to Anne and thinking about the ComEd prospects beyond 2020 here.
Chris Crane:
So let me start off and I’ll let Denis jump in here or Anne on the call. The advent of digitalization of the distribution system and the transmission system is offered us an opportunity for capital investments that directly benefit the customers and drive reliability. We have now put in communications backbones to reach smart meters to help us with fault isolators, fast reclosers, that’s the kind of spend, along with replacing antiquated cable and updating the system with new components. Now, as we go into the 2020 and beyond, there is a significant amount of work being done on what else can be done to develop into the smart city that we can better serve the communities while investing and driving efficiency into the systems. And the work that’s being done on microgrids, the experimental work there, to see what the societal benefit in certain microgrids in certain locations. What we can do to integrate with more of the community is there an assistance within the street light programs or assistance that we can provide with our infrastructure on the meter reading of water or gas or other types of systems is where we’ll be going. And I think, this technology is morphing faster than it ever has in our sector. And with our design teams, data scientists, the work that we’re doing on big data, digitization is going to provide us many opportunities for continuing to optimize the system for the customers’ benefit. Denis, I don’t know if I covered it or...
Denis O’Brien:
This is Dennis. Chris, I think you covered it pretty well. We’re spending about $5 billion year-end capital. We still see opportunities to continue to invest in convergence relative to our systems to build the systems of the future, whether that’s billing systems, transmissions data systems or others. We see opportunities to continue invest in resiliency and security. We’re seeing opportunities relative to the transmission system as we look at resiliency and security and to build the transmission system of the future. Chris hit on smart cities and other things like that. And the last thing as you look at the grid of the future and we think about distributed generation, in order to get our system ready for that, that really means about converting some of our lower-voltage circuits into higher-voltage circuits. And so that’s an opportunity for further capital deployment. So we’re deploying about $5 billion of capital a year. We see that continuing and see lots of opportunities to continue to invest in utilities as usual.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
But does that enable kind of accelerating CapEx spend overall? And perhaps, that the core of the question.
Chris Crane:
I don’t see – it’s accelerating the plan. I think we’re at a point that we’re managing efficiently the spent that we have. We also have to balance the impact to the consumer. Spending capital for the sake as spending capital without finding the efficiencies in the delivery into the benefit of the customer, it wouldn’t be prudent. Right now, the projects that we have on schedule, the cash flow that supports that are managed well and they do support what our bottom line. It needs to be as to the benefit of the customer.
Jack Thayer:
And one thing I’ll add to that. Our focus on we’re 18 months into PHI acquisition. Our focus now is to get the performance to the right level. We had our best year ever in reliability at PHI last year, which we only had the company since March. We’re going to blow it through that level of reliability this year in a good way. So the first couple of years, how do we get the performance to a good place? How do we write the image and reputation, and improve our regulatory outcomes at PHI.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Excellent. Thank you all.
Chris Crane:
Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Stephen Byrd from Morgan Stanley.
Stephen Byrd:
Good morning and congratulations on the – announcements and the utility performance.
Chris Crane:
Thank, Steve.
Stephen Byrd:
I wanted to drill into the idea of resiliency laid out as part of energy. Is there a way for us to conceptually think about the valued resiliency or a framework for assessing – how to appropriately value resiliency? It’s been a tricky thing, I think, for all of us to really think through the high-level idea to make sense just sort of how to go about trying to value that. Is that any suggestions you have in thinking about that?
Joe Dominguez:
Steve, it’s Joe Dominguez. If you’ve seen our fleeting, you know that we have a multi-phase process where, in the first instance, we need to get analytics from new RTOs. Can they run without pipelines? What’s the impact for the consumers? We can move from there to design basis for the system that we think is going to iterate between NERC, FERC and kind of the Department of Energy sometime after we get the data. In terms of how we ultimately implement that into the system, I think once we’ve the design basis, is what we are trying to avoid, we will start looking at mitigation solutions, maybe the retention of additional fuel secure resources to avoid this outage risk. But I think it’s premature to get there. One way you can think about is, though, you can take a look at the capacity performance program. We were able to value the cost of incremental reliability associated with dual fuel. So if the design basis ultimately ends up being we need 90 days of fuel, we have a mathematical way of calculating what’s the market solution to get dual fuel resources to 90 days of fuel with it. That would probably be the $8 or $10 of megawatt hour in terms of doing that based on the cost we saw in CPAY. So that’s one approach. But from our perspective, we need to drop back here, take a look at the data, make sure we have the right definition of resiliency, the right design basis and then we come back with market solutions or other solutions that we would ensure resources to mitigate that risk and provide the security we need that we provide to our end customers in the nation.
Chris Crane:
And I think the key to that, what Joe said, is a market solution.
Stephen Byrd:
Understood. Within that market construct that we have that makes sense. So I want to just shift over the retail business. There’s been a lot of discussion on this call around. Just the competitive playing field, if we do see FERC performs on power price formation and if power prices do rise, would you expect to see a bit of a shakeout amongst smaller retail players? You are not backed up by physical generation. You may misprice the upside risk to power prices. How do you assuming again that we do see kind of formation we expect? Would you say a shakeout there?
Chris Crane:
Yes. I think history tell us we would ends up in a volatility of event. And then go back for a number of years. We’ve seen players whether the big or small, whether they are on the C&I side, the residential side or quite frankly, the power loads on the wholesale side. We’ve seen folks who aggressively price the risk or the ultimate price to the customer have been hurt. And as I said, earlier, we had opportunities to acquire companies in that type of environment. We’ve the opportunities to grow our business organically. And we think remaining disciplined to what we’re doing is the right thing to do. We still have almost 25% of the C&I market. We’re the number one C&I marketer by a huge amounts. We’re the third largest residential marketer in the United States and we compete in all the wholesale power options. So the underlying business is strong. The growth we expect we’re not achieving and I think what discipline will serve us well and we have opportunity to capture some of that back when we see the volatility of event.
Stephen Byrd:
That’s great, that’s all I have. Thank you.
Operator:
And your final question comes from the line of Praful Mehta from Citigroup.
Praful Mehta:
Thanks. Good morning. So my question goes back a little bit to the dividend discussion. And what I was trying to connect the dots on was, you’re already kind hitting your leverage targets, your free cash flow targets, right now, with the current plan. If you do have price reform and if you do have further ZECs coming from other states, then you have that incremental free cash flow. How should we think about that capital allocation? Is that more to both of dividend or way do you think that capital allocation go?
Jack Thayer:
First of all, we will look at it in a disciplined way on what is the best way to return value to the shareholders, while maintaining our commitment to the customers. So the plan, as I said, earlier that we started out on over 4.5 years ago is working. We’re reducing our debt. We’re strengthening our balance sheet. We’re reducing our cost. We’re able to make solid investments in our utilities, and we’ve been able to do a part of a dividend increase program as we were doing that. As you can see, as we get stronger and stronger, opportunities for us to deploy the capital are coming our way, and we’ll make sure that we will look at it in a disciplined fashion. If there are more accretive ways to spend the capital in the utilities, and in a low risk area, that will be something we look at. But as we’ve committed previously, and as we’ve signaled, it’s a conversation that’s ongoing right now. There is opportunities to revise the dividend policy and give you another multi-year plan as we work through the LRP planning process. And we work with our board heading into 2018.
Praful Mehta:
Got it. That’s very helpful. And secondly, in terms of the ZEC’s, if you could just touch on how you think of ZEC’s plays out in different states – in other states obviously, very high in there. And secondly, how does that fit in with the price formation and the DOE reform. Do you see them interacting? Or if you see them as completely independent?
Joe Dominguez:
And this is Joe, again. We’re pleased to see the upcoming in the Connecticut the other day, where all the different structure, the type of premises the same nuclear units are critical for our customers. And we need to preserve them. So that means as set forth on policy front there. We have been very productive discussions both in Pennsylvania and New Jersey. We’ll continue to do that. In terms of the interaction, I see between programs, if we get an upside in price formation, I think that will ultimately be taken into account in the process. So it will not be a double dip here. If prices increase as result on price formation, the cost of the ZEC’s or the cost of the support payments will go down. That’s anticipated.
Praful Mehta:
Got it. And you think that’s a dollar per dollar adjustment? Or do you think there’s some benefit that you do keep?
Joe Dominguez:
No. I think it’s a dollar per dollar adjustment.
Praful Mehta:
Got it. That’s super helpful guys. Thanks so much.
Operator:
And for closing remarks. I will now turn the call over to Chris Crane.
Executives:
Daniel L. Eggers - Exelon Corp. Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp. Joseph Dominguez - Exelon Corp. Jonathan W. Thayer - Exelon Corp. Joseph Nigro - Exelon Corp.
Analysts:
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.
Operator:
Good morning. My name is Kayla and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Exelon Corporation 2017 Q2 Earnings Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there'll be a question-and-answer session. Thank you. Mr. Dan Eggers, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations, you may begin your conference, sir.
Daniel L. Eggers - Exelon Corp.:
Thank you, Kayla. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our second quarter 2017 earnings conference call. Leading the call today are Chris Crane, Exelon's President and Chief Executive Officer; Joe Dominguez, Executive Vice President, Government and Regulatory Affairs and Public Policy; and Jack Thayer, Exelon's Chief Financial Officer. They're joined by other members of Exelon's senior management team who will be available to answer your questions following our prepared remarks. We issued our earnings release this morning along with the presentation, both of which can be found in the Investor Relations section of Exelon's website. The earnings release and other matters which we discuss during today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ from our forward-looking statements based on factors and assumptions discussed in today's material and comments made during this call. Please refer to today's 8-K and Exelon's other SEC filings for discussion of risk factors and factors that may cause results to differ from management's projections, forecasts and expectations. Today's presentation also includes references to adjusted operating earnings and other non-GAAP measures. Please refer to the information contained in the appendix of our presentation and our earnings release for reconciliations between the non-GAAP measures and the nearest equivalent GAAP measures. I'll now turn the call over to Chris Crane, Exelon's CEO.
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
Thanks, Dan. And good morning and thank you, all, for joining us. We're pleased to deliver another good quarter. We achieved strong financial results, while continuing to enhance our operational performance and make significant gains on the policy front. I'll begin by highlighting our financial performance and then briefly discuss some of the key policy and strategic objectives that are top of mind to many of you and us. Joe Dominguez will then cover in more detail the status of our recent wins in New York and Illinois, as well as our thoughts on potential PJM market reforms. Jack will walk you through the numbers. As shown on slide 5, on a GAAP basis, in the second quarter, we earned $0.09 per share versus $0.29 last year. On an operating basis, we earned $0.54 per share versus $0.65 last year, which is near the top of our $0.45 to $0.55 guidance range. These are strong results relative to our expectations and led by ExGen. Moving to slide 6. We continue to execute very well operationally with the second quarter extending some of the best-evers. On our color block chart shows key operating and customer satisfaction benchmarks for the utilities. Legacy Exelon Utilities again remained almost entirely in the first quartile, BGE and ComEd achieving first decile in CAIDI performance. BGE also delivered its best-ever SAIFI and CAIDI performance, and ComEd experienced its best-ever SAIFI performance. And I'm proud to say that Pepco was identified in the J.D. Power study as one of the most improved utilities in customer satisfaction from 2016 to 2017. This is a great achievement and shows we are delivering on our commitments to our customers. The scale of Exelon Utilities platform again significantly benefited our customers in the second quarter. We leveraged our management model and our geographic overlap to deliver better and faster service, particularly in the East. For example, in May, we dispatched Delmarva and PECO crews to assist BGE with the restoration of a multi-day natural gas outage that affected customers in West Baltimore. The assistance provided by the other crews not only helped to reduce the outage time by a full day, but also allowed BGE to operate the balance of the system safely with a 100% gas odor response during the outage. We're glad to see our customers are benefiting from the Exelon Utility platform. The nuclear team also had a great quarter. They achieved 90.9% capacity factor and completed six refueling outages. Nine Mile 1 registered its shortest outage duration on record. In the power business, our assets performed well. Our two new Texas CCGTs, about 2,200 megawatts, are now online and fully operational. These plants are state-of-the-art and able to ramp up quickly to better serve the load that may come with the hot summer weather in Texas. Moving to slide 7. We have seen several key developments in markets and regulatory matters. We had significant wins on the ZEC programs. As many of you already know, we prevailed on our motions to dismiss in both Illinois and New York, with both judges finding in favor on standing and legal merits. These wins are strong affirmations of the ZEC program design. More importantly, these wins will support the continued operation of at-risk nuclear plants providing clean, affordable energy for our customers for many years to come. Needless to say, we are pleased with the results. Joe Dominguez will cover more of the details in a few minutes. With respect to PHI, we wrapped up our first cycle of rate cases as part of Exelon with the DC order last week. Jack will discuss in more detail, but we're happy with the progress we're making at PHI operationally and on the regulatory front. We are pleased that in July the DC Court of Appeals affirmed the DC Commission approval of the PHI merger, resolving an open item. PJM capacity results were announced on May 23 in all of our nuclear plants and PJM cleared the auction, except Quad Cities and Three Mile Island. The RPM results show considerable variability by year in the RTO zone. However, our disciplined bidding approach in recent years continues to provide greater stability in realized capacity revenues, which Jack will discuss shortly. With Three Mile Island failing to clear PJM capacity auction for the third consecutive auction, we came to the difficult decision to close the plant in September of 2019 at the end of the next fuel cycle. A program that fairly compensates the plants for zero-emission energy, similar to what we have seen in New York and Illinois, is needed in order to continue operations. It's important to note that the economic challenges facing TMI impact all nuclear plants in Pennsylvania. We remain hopeful that the state policymakers can find a solution that preserves these important assets. The total Pennsylvania nuclear fleet injects $2 billion into the state's economy each year and supports 1,600 direct and indirect jobs. With that, I'll turn the call over to Joe Dominguez, who will provide some details on ZEC challenges and other items.
Joseph Dominguez - Exelon Corp.:
Thanks, Chris. Good morning, everybody. As Chris said, I'm going to cover the ZEC rulings, the current status of ZEC legislative efforts in other states, the DOE study, and PJM operational and market reforms. Let me start with the court cases. Obviously, we're pleased with the decisions in the district courts. The Illinois District Court decision has been appealed to the Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals. We expect the New York Court's decision to be appealed to the Second Circuit Court of Appeals. I want to make a couple of points about why we are very confident in the ultimate outcome of those cases. First, the district court decided these cases at a very preliminary stage, where as a legal matter the courts had to assume all of the facts that the plaintiffs pled were accurate. Those facts were not accurate. But even under the plaintiff's versions of the case, the courts found that they had no legal claim whatsoever. Second, as you may know, often times where a party prevails in a case on a procedural or standing issue, the court will not proceed to decide the substantive legal issues. That wasn't the case here. In both decisions, the district courts rejected the entire waterfront of the plaintiff's claims through the substantive and procedural issues. I think that speaks to how high a hill they will need to climb on appeal to reverse those decisions. At the heart of it, the decisions reject the plaintiff's arguments that state policies that favor cleaner sources of generation violate federal wholesale markets. The district court for the Southern District of New York summed it up this way. It said that competing generators have no complaint that they don't qualify for state programs because "they made business decisions about how they generate electricity." Policymakers and customers increasingly want reliable, low-cost, zero-emission electricity. That's what we do at Exelon. The ZEC policies begin to recognize that nuclear energy plays an important role in meeting those customer needs and we're going to continue to advance that argument in Pennsylvania and other states. We're actively developing coalitions and we're working with policymakers to educate them on the issues. And as Chris said, the issues don't just face TMI but the entire nuclear industry as a whole and the entire industry, of course, in Pennsylvania. Let me be clear, we're not just working on ZEC issues. We don't think that's the only approach. We have said for a long time that we think that the best market outcome is to price attributes directly into the market in the case of greenhouse gases and price on carbon. And it's more clear to us now than ever that federal wholesale markets need to evolve to fully incorporate attributes like resiliency, fuel diversity, and environmental qualities of the generation resources. If the markets don't evolve, then the markets are going to have a diminished role in energy policy going forward. I know that in the past we fielded questions on these calls about whether as a company we remain committed to markets. We are committed but the markets have to be well-functioning. Our commitment to markets only extends so far as it provides the best outcomes for our customers. We have said for years that the markets have problems. Those problems are undisputed. We have had many workshops at FERC and other places talking about price formation as an example. Yet those issues have remained unresolved, and the consequence has been that some of the most valuable resources for our customers are being forced out by a market that hasn't been working. That's why we feel confident that the DOE study and a reconstituted quorum at FERC is going to address some of these longstanding issues. Now, let me talk about the study and some of the PJM market reforms that I'm hinting at here. As you know, the study has been worked on for a number of months. Everybody wants to see it. We hope to see it at some point in time this month. We think that it is going to focus on baseload resources, on the critical role of nuclear and the critical role of other fuel sources that have resilient on-site fuel. We think that the DOE study is important because it will frame the objectives for the administration for the next four years and we think it's going to be an important signpost to inform the agenda at FERC. Here's what we hope to see in the report. First, we want to see a recognition of the value of nuclear and an appreciation of the state programs in Illinois, New York and the other places that are going to adopt these programs. Let me be specific. We expect the FERC to respect those programs and not to tamper with the functioning. There are a couple of MOPR complaints that need to be addressed. The ISOs do not support those complaints, but that is on the docket and ready for action by a new FERC. And we have talked to the Department of Energy about those issues and we've had productive conversations. The second issue is that we need to look at the market design changes that have been long pending. As many of you know, PJM has recently put out a white paper on this issue, talking about energy price formation primarily in the off-peak hours, and the need for all forms of generation to be able to set price. From our perspective, this is a very important issue, and we appreciate PJM's timeline which calls for a FERC filing sometime in the first quarter of 2018 and full implementation of the market reforms by the summer of 2018. We're going to push very hard to make sure that happens. Third, we hope the Department of Energy puts a spotlight on the issue of resiliency. Let me spend a moment talking about that. We have talked about reliability in the form of being able to run the system even in the event that we have major electrical components that fail. But as increasingly the system depends on both intermittent generation and natural gas-fired generation that don't have the ability to secure fuel for long-term operations, we need to make sure that our customers get electricity even in the event of a long-term disruption of the natural gas pipeline system. That's something that currently is not being modeled and needs to be modeled. So, PJM has recently put out a white paper on this subject with a schedule of activities. The first activity is to address operational reserves beginning this winter. Importantly, that doesn't require any FERC activity or any stakeholder support. That within the tariff is within PJM's full province. And again, we are pushing to make sure these things are done. That's an important start and should begin to be reflected in pricing this winter for baseload resources that provide the kind of resiliency that I'm talking about. But that's not the end of this subject. We have to, as an industry and as a country, come to grips with this potential risk to our system and examine the possibility of multiple pipeline failures. And the policies that come from that should favor fuel generation sources that have on-site fuel, like nuclear plants, that could run for a year or two in the event of these emergencies. So we're going to continue to focus on that, and those are really the three areas that we're hoping that the DOE will provide some guidance on. So, obviously, we have a lot going on in the policy space, we're making very good progress, but a lot of work remains to be done. I'll look forward to taking your questions after Jack concludes his part of the presentation.
Jonathan W. Thayer - Exelon Corp.:
Great. Thank you, Joe, and good morning, everyone. My remarks today will cover our second quarter results, an overview of our current rate cases, an update of our gross margin disclosures and a review of some of the key events that occurred this quarter. On slide 9, as Chris mentioned earlier, we had a strong second quarter financially and operationally across the company. Our non-GAAP operating earnings were $0.54 per share, near the top of our guidance range of $0.45 to $0.55 per share. Exelon's Utilities less HoldCo expenses delivered a combined $0.33 per share. Relative to plan, utility results were slightly favorable, primarily driven by O&M timing across all of the utilities. Generation earned $0.22 per share in the second quarter. This was favorable versus the plan, driven by the timing of O&M and realized gains from our nuclear decommissioning trusts. Our nuclear plants had another strong quarter with higher capacity factors than budgeted, and the Constellation team continued to deliver strong results with good customer wins. Turning to slide 10. The $0.54 per share in the second quarter of this year was $0.11 per share lower than the second quarter of 2016. Overall, the utilities benefited from increased rates and higher rate base, partly offset by year-over-year weather impacts. ExGen was down year-over-year, primarily on the known impacts of lower power price realization and more planned refueling outages, partly offset by New York ZEC revenues. On slide 11, our year-to-date earnings of $1.19 per share are $0.14 per share lower than the same period last year. The decrease is primarily driven by lower realized energy prices, partially offset by the New York ZEC revenues, with partial offsets from our utilities with higher rates supporting our ongoing reliability investments and a full-year contribution from PHI. Turning to slide 12, we are reaffirming our full-year guidance range of $2.50 to $2.80 per share. We expect to deliver operating earnings of $0.80 to $0.90 per share in the third quarter, compared with $0.91 per share last year. Our third quarter results will include a full quarter of contributions from the New York ZEC program that started on April 1. In Illinois, the ZEC program went into effect on June 1, but the ICC has yet to conduct its ZEC procurement process. It's anticipated that the procurement events and the execution of contracts with winning ZEC suppliers will occur in the fourth quarter. Therefore, no revenues will be recognized until that process concludes. We would then include all of the Illinois ZEC revenues retroactive to June 1. Moving to slide 13. Our utilities continued to execute, delivering strong earned returns in the quarter in addition to strong customer-focused operational performance. Looking at the trailing 12-month book ROEs, at PHI we saw some of the utilities register lower trailing ROEs relative to what we showed last quarter. The degradation was expected, primarily due to the timing of equity infusions that Exelon made into PHI in 2016 following the merger close. For the legacy Exelon Utilities, our earned ROEs remain over 10%, lifting the consolidated Exelon Utilities platform to nearly 10%, including PHI. We still have work to do with the utilities to continue improving the product we're delivering to our customers, but we're happy with where the overall business is performing. As we've said before, we're confident in our ability to deliver on the plan that we put in place at PHI. On slide 14, we updated the status of our rate cases. Since our first quarter call, the unanimous settlements in Delmarva, Delaware electric and gas cases were approved, with a combined revenue increase of $36 million. We also received a commission decision in the Pepco DC rate case during the quarter with a revenue increase of $37 million. We've now completed our first cycle of planned rate cases in the PHI jurisdictions, with the second cycle already underway. We filed rate cases at ACE and Pepco Maryland last quarter, and just recently filed again at Delmarva Maryland during the second quarter. Combined, we are currently asking for $168 million in revenues, which reflect recovery on multiple years of capital investments that have been made to improve the reliability of the grid across these jurisdictions. We expect the final ruling on Pepco Maryland in the fourth quarter of this year, and decisions on ACE and Delmarva Maryland in the first quarter of 2018. We plan to file second rate cases in the remaining PHI jurisdictions later in 2017, and expect to have them resolved by the end of 2018, helping to put us in a position to earn our targeted ROEs in 2019. We're proud of the hard work from our utilities and regulatory teams. These efforts are helping to bring PHI's revenues and earned ROEs back on course, while we simultaneously improve performance for our customers. More details on the rate cases and their schedules can be found on slides 35 through 42 in the appendix. Turning to slide 15. The PJM base residual auction results were announced in May. We cleared 16.2 gigawatts of capacity in the auction, with the bulk of our capacity clearing in the ComEd and Eastern MAAC zones, which cleared above the rest of RTO pricing at $188 per megawatt day. We continue to follow a disciplined approach to bidding our plants based on their specific cost profiles. We believe this bidding discipline is the right strategy for our plants and has led to more stability in our capacity revenue streams than seen in other generators that have not been as disciplined. Our Three Mile Island nuclear plant failed to clear in the PJM capacity auction for the third consecutive year with this auction. We've been losing both cash and earnings at the plant in recent years, and do not see a path to profitability as the market backdrop exists today. Accordingly, earlier in the quarter, we announced plans to retire the plant in the fall of 2019. We are engaged with stakeholders in Pennsylvania to find ways to preserve the plant, but we're still early in that process. From a financial perspective, the closure will add $0.04 to $0.07 per share of EPS annually beyond 2019 depending on the refueling year. We expect to realize positive cumulative cash flows of approximately $225 million through 2021 with the closure. Slide 16 provides our gross margin update for ExGen. In 2017, total gross margin is flat to our last disclosure. During the quarter, we executed on $200 million of power new business and $50 million of non-power new business. We're highly hedged for the rest of this year and are well-balanced on our generation to load matching strategy. Total gross margin decreased in the second quarter by $150 million in 2018 due to the removal of EGTP from a portfolio as well as the impacts of lower capacity revenues in MISO and New York. Total gross margin in 2019 is down $150 million from last quarter, driven by the removal of EGTP from the portfolio and the forecasted closure of TMI in September of 2019. Let me be clear that, although gross margin is down due to the divesture of EGTP and plant closure of TMI, the impacts of both are accretive to EPS and cash flow. The elimination of EGTP lowers gross margin by roughly $100 million in 2018 and 2019, but is EPS-accretive by $0.02 to $0.03 per share in each of those years. So there are cost offsets you should consider. And while we do not expect to close TMI until the fall of 2019, the retirement lowers our 2019 gross margin by roughly $50 million, although the EPS impact is roughly $0.05 positive. And as I said earlier, the retirement will be $0.04 to $0.07 EPS-accretive annually beyond 2019 depending on the refueling year. From a hedging perspective, we ended the quarter approximately 11% to 14% behind our ratable hedging program in 2018, and 8% to 11% behind ratable in 2019 when considering cross-commodity hedges. The majority of our length is concentrated in the Midwest to align with our fundamental view of spot market upside in NiHub. We remain comfortable being more open when we look at market fundamentals. Turning to slide 17. On the topic of power market forwards, you have heard us and many others talk about the reduced liquidity in the forward power curves that arguably can create price distortions. We do not mean for this chart to be comprehensive, but it's illustrative of what has been happening in the forward power markets. The top chart shows the volumes created on a cumulative two- and five-year forward period for PJM West on peak power using a six-month average to smooth some of the seasonal volatility. I would flag in this context that overall volumes have been on a pretty consistent decline, both in absolute terms and particularly when looking beyond two years, which can be seen in the narrowing of the two lines on the chart. Arguably more interesting when thinking about forward power price transparency is the amount of transactions in those years. Looking at the lower right chart, prompt year volumes are over 71% of the five-year cumulative volumes, with 2019 representing another 23%. The volumes created in 2020 and beyond are only 6% of the total volumes, with 2021 nearly non-existent. Compared to last year, total volumes are lower and the amount of volumes in the out-years is even less. We wanted to share some of this data with you, particularly as folks were thinking more about the roll forward of 2020 earnings estimates. We would note that our fundamentals group has a more constructive view on power markets than these illiquid forward curves suggest, but we appreciate that there is perceived safety in using the forwards. However, when running your numbers, we would just encourage you all to appreciate what is underpinning those forward prices. Turning to slide 18, we remain committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet and our investment-grade rating. We have now removed EGTP from our credit metrics, which in turn has improved our consolidated net debt to EBITDA at year-end 2017 to 2.9 times, which is below our target of 3 times. If we focus only on recourse debt, our leverage is at 2.5 times EBITDA. We're pleased with the improvements in our balance sheet and we'll continue to focus on a combination of debt pay-down between ExGen and the holding company. And with that, I'll turn the call back to Chris.
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
Thanks, Jack. In closing, I'd like to remind you all that Exelon's success is a direct result of our people and the culture of performance and service that we've created as an organization. In June, we held our sixth Exelon Innovation Expo in Washington D.C. This annual event brings together employees, vendors, and other key stakeholders to share all the ways Exelon is working to embrace and advance the future of the energy industry. The expo is also an excellent opportunities for our employees across the company to share ideas, explore new technologies, drive collaboration, and push each other to do even better for our customers. On slide 20, Exelon culture is also built on serving our communities, both externally and internally. We accomplished a lot on this front during the quarter and several awards really do stand out. First, Exelon is being added to the Billion Dollar Roundtable, which recognizes companies that spend over $1 billion with Tier 1 diverse and minority-owned suppliers. In 2016, we spent nearly $2 million with these important partners. We are only one of 27 companies to be named to the roundtable, and the only utility or energy company. I especially want to thank Bill Von Hoene and Bridget Reidy for their leadership on expanding our supplier base to benefit our communities. For the first time, Points of Light named us to the Civic 50, which recognizes the 50 most community-minded public and private companies in the United States. Our company strives everyday to better serve our communities, so this award is especially gratifying. We're also named to DiversityInc's Top 50 Companies for Diversity, adding to our previous position as the best utility. We embrace diversity in all forms, so this represents an important distinction for our company. On slide 21, the value proposition. We once again want to reiterate our value proposition, which remains the foundation of our commitment to the investors. We continue to grow the utility rate base at 6.5% annually through 2020 and regulated EPS by 6% to 8% annually through 2020, through capital investments that directly benefit our customers in each of our jurisdictions. We continue to use the free cash flow generated at ExGen to fund incremental utility needs at the Utilities of $2.5 billion and pay down approximately $3 billion of debt over the next four years at ExGen and the holding companies. We're focused on optimizing the value for our ExGen business by seeking fair compensation for our carbon-free generation fleet, closing uneconomic plants, selling assets where it makes sense to accelerate our debt reduction plans, and maximizing value through the gen-to-load matching strategy. We will continue to focus on sustaining strong investment-grade credit metrics and growing our dividend in a consistent, visible manner. So I'd like to thank you, all, for joining again and for your interest. And now, we're ready to take questions.
Operator:
Our first question comes from the line of Greg Gordon from Evercore ISI.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Thanks. Good morning.
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
Hey, Greg.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
I think you covered this in the script, but I just wanted to make sure I heard it clearly. You went through the puts and takes associated with the changes in the gross margin outlook. And despite it being lower, a lot of that is coming from assets that are removed from the portfolio. And then there's obviously offsetting costs below the line that make that cash and earnings accretive. So you don't have the slide in your deck, but you've periodically put it in the slide that shows the 2017 to 2020 ExGen free cash flow profile. Should I presume that you're still on track to generate enough cash to create the $2.8 billion to $3.2 billion in ExGen/HoldCo debt reduction that you've articulated?
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
Yes.
Jonathan W. Thayer - Exelon Corp.:
Greg, we've been – yeah.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Okay. And then my second question is, given that how much you've improved your debt to EBITDA, both on a recourse and non-recourse basis, I know that you've talked about thinking about pivoting from ExGen debt reduction to parent debt reduction. But there's also a point in time here in the future where I think you guys were going to revisit the board with a conversation about the dividend growth rate. So, given that you seem to be ahead of schedule on achieving your debt reduction goals, can you give us an update on how you're contemplating the conversation around the dividend to evolve?
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
So, as we've discussed in previous calls, we gave you a three-year window, a three-year look on our dividend and the annual increase. We'll be in discussion with the board through the next couple of board meetings on what our continued dividend strategy would be for a period of time. We'd like to give you a three- to five-year look ahead and that would be timed somewhere around in the first quarter, as the board deliberates on that. So we are balancing, looking at (32:27) the strong balance sheet, any drag from interest expense at the HoldCo, the value that we can create through either dividend increase or debt reduction. It's top of mind and going through the analysis phase right now, and hope we'll be able to give you positive news very soon.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Great. One final question. From time-to-time, investors contemplate with a greater or lesser degree of certitude the thought process around whether you guys would ever consider splitting ExGen from the Utility business and under what circumstances that would be appropriate? And I guess, the water cooler talk around that, frankly, went up demonstrably after the successful floatation of Vistra on the New York Stock Exchange and the valuation at which they're trading. Can you talk about how you think about and contemplate sort of significant long-term changes in strategy like that and whether that is, in fact, something that would be now an increased probability, given the facts as they lay today?
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
Yeah. I wouldn't say there's an increased probability. As you would imagine, we need to look at our business strategy on some routine basis, as we do. We look at the combination of the ExGen and the Utility business right now, and our capabilities, while maintaining strong balance sheets, be able to do significant investment for our customers around reliability and innovation on the Utilities. So, having a free cash flow machine that's being given more certainty on its capabilities by programs like the ZEC and the fantastic work that Constellation achieves through the margins that they create, we like what we're doing right now. What we have said in the past is we believe that we're undervalued and that we need to be seeing that value increase in the market as we make these accomplishments. We felt we're at a prove-me (34:51) state on PHI that not only do we have to integrate them successfully into our management model and drive the performance to our operational standards that we've set at the other Exelon utilities, but also achieve what is a fair and reasonable recovery on rate cases. And we're executing on that now. And I think we're proving ourselves. And we think that that should be translated into a more reasonable valuation not only at the Utility level, but at the ExGen level. So we'll strive to continue to really achieve some lofty goals and secure what we think is solid revenues and be able to reinvest those revenues into creating greater returns for the investors.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Thanks, guys. Appreciate it.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Jonathan Arnold from Deutsche Bank.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Good morning, guys.
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
Hey, Jon.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
So, Greg asked one of my questions, the strategy question. But if I could just – is there a timeframe, Chris, on when you would want to see that sort of realization and validation of your strategy and value? What sort of timeframe would you kind of want to succeed by before you'd consider an alternative?
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
Yeah. I think, Jonathan, we're seeing it this year. You can see that the stock is starting to perform better, which reflects a better valuation. We think there's more room to grow over the next year to two years, as our programs are solidified around the nuclear assets and new potential programs are put in place around price formation and other value-creating mechanisms. The multiple that we see at the Genco should improve. We differentiate our sales from any other merchant generator with not only the class of assets we have, but the programs that recognize those class of assets. So we should see those come to strong fruition over the next year to two, and we'd like to see the compensation for it. We also believe that we're doing a really great job on what we've committed to to the customers around reliability and service at all our utilities and gaining fair returns. Catching up a little bit on the PHI utilities in productive rate cases should also be a catalyst for achieving a better multiple on the EPS. So, next couple of years, we should be where we want to be at.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
So is it fair to say that P/E multiple is your main yardstick, then, you're looking at in terms of determining whether you've closed the gap to your satisfaction?
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
Well, as you do, we do a sum of the parts and look at the valuations and look at where we think we should be. That is one of the indicators. But the EBITDA multiple on the Genco is also a key indicator for us.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. Great. Thank you. And just on one smaller item. It looked like the financing needs at ExGen versus last quarter for this year came down about $300 million. Is that to do with asset sale or something else, what's driving that change? The cash flows...
Jonathan W. Thayer - Exelon Corp.:
It's the proceeds from the joint venture.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
But the number is lower, though, Jack, is the...
Jonathan W. Thayer - Exelon Corp.:
We had a tax gain on the sale.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
I got it. Okay. Thank you very much, guys.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Steve Fleishman from Wolfe Research.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Hi. Good morning. Couple quick questions. The comments on 2020 and the forwards, I guess we'll see in time, but just in the event that your fundamentals are wrong and the forwards are right, is there more that the company can do on costs and the like to deal with that?
Jonathan W. Thayer - Exelon Corp.:
Steve, it's Jack. We have a long history of being proactive on costs. And our cost reduction programs are just generally part of our corporate DNA. So, over the past five years, we've saved $500 million of synergies from the Constellation merger, another $75 million from the integration of CENG. $350 million of cost reductions from our November 2015 program, another $125 million of savings from the November 2016 program, and we're on target for $130 million of synergies from the PHI deal. And just from a philosophical standpoint, we manage our business for the worst, Steve, while expecting a better outcome. And you can and should expect us to continue focusing on opportunities to run our business more efficiently and pull out additional costs. We view cost management as incremental each year and building on what we've already done rather than a big one-time transformative event. Our regular increases in cost savings opportunities we think have added up to real economic value, and you should continue to see us focus on continuous improvement and driving further savings in the future.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. Good. And then, just on the PJM market structure changes, any sense on what they could possibly do to market pricing? Like, how much they could impact market?
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
Joe?
Joseph Dominguez - Exelon Corp.:
Yeah. Steve, we're not there yet. We're evaluating that, but we need some more details out of PJM around the program design. I think, as a general matter, you'll see some improvement in around-the-clock energy, specifically off-peak. And you'll see some benefits for the consumer on the capacity market side as those prices ought to go down. But for machines that drive most of their revenue in the energy market like the nuclear machines, this will be a good outcome and we'll be supportive of keeping those lowest cost options available for our customers long-term.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. One final question, I guess, maybe for Chris. Just with the announcement earlier this week of the summer shutdown or abandonment, I'm just curious kind of from a nuclear support overall, does this better make your case of supporting existing nuclear or does it somehow make the other case that this is going to phase out over time anyway? Just thoughts there.
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
No, I think there are two different issues. One, it's not good for the industry to have the next wave of plants go through financial stress and the mismanagement by the suppliers to the industry. That is unfortunate. And we understand the decision that's been made to not go forward with the risks that they still have around it and the financial burdens that it would create for their customers. So, that's one thing. If you look at what we're talking about with our nuclear assets, they are definitely providing a product and a service unlike any other generating assets, not only is it the reliability that we load a core for 18 to 24 months and they can run through any weather cycle and are not dependent on a fuel delivery that allows a baseload generation, a level of reliability to the system. The compensation that should be sought and granted for their environmental benefits to the communities they serve. An example of Illinois' power stack, 60% of the power in Illinois is carbon-free. 90% of that comes from the nuclear facilities. It allows the state to make its goals that it wants to make on carbon reduction. And without these assets being fairly compensated, that would go in the opposite direction. And finally, these assets that do provide the societal benefit around carbon and the societal benefit around reliability and sustainable national security, they also are great economic supporters of the communities they serve, the tax bases for the schools, the parks, the employment base. So, on many levels, they've been evaluated as critical and should be compensated for the lifespan that they have remaining to provide a bridge to what could be that source of energy that provides that same level of the great attributes going forward.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Praful Mehta from Citigroup.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Thanks so much. Hi, guys.
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
Morning.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Morning. So, looking on the ZEC, has the win in New York and Illinois help set the framework or ease the discussion with other states, as in are you having more productive conversations given the legal win? And secondly, I guess linked with that, if it does roll out in other states over time, how do you think about capital allocation at that point, given you've already kind of hit your metrics from a credit perspective at ExGen with the current plan? Is it more just de-leveraging at the parent company or what else do you think in terms of capital allocation?
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
I'll let Joe cover the first part and Jack can go through our plans on the second part.
Joseph Dominguez - Exelon Corp.:
Yeah, I think the answer to the first part is yes. It does provide a bit of a catalyst for better discussions in other states. One of the themes that the opponents often roll at is that these policies have questionable legal merit. And so they talk to politicians and they say, why would you take a tough vote on this only to have it overturned in the court. So these decisions resolve that issue and we expect, as these decisions get solidified in the appellate courts, that it'll provide additional catalysts for those discussions in other states.
Jonathan W. Thayer - Exelon Corp.:
And then, Praful, just in terms of capital allocation, as you mentioned, our balance sheet is in a stronger position this quarter than it was last quarter. We're effectively at the target that we set in the fall of last year. And what that allows us to do is much greater flexibility on where we focus our debt retirement plan. So I think you'll see us, depending on maturities, look at both the holding company as well as ExGen for future retirements. And it obviously gives us a much greater degree of visibility and certainty around those cash flows, which I think plays into Chris's response on the valuation. We would expect that the valuation metrics for our generation company reflect the reduced volatility that's associated with these important assets.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Got you. But then, after the debt reduction targets are hit at the HoldCo, from either buyback or even dividend perspective, is that on the table as well?
Jonathan W. Thayer - Exelon Corp.:
I'd say we have plenty of holding company debt to retire and that provides us with considerable flexibility, and it's one of the items we'll be looking at, as Chris mentioned, in our review with the board of the outlook for the company and its strategic plan around dividend and other capital allocation decisions.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Got you. And secondly, just the interesting slide you provided on the market liquidity and what that means in terms of forward curve, does that also mean that acquiring more retail footprint or a larger retail footprint is a good way to mitigate some of those liquidity risks, given forward curves are just not there and you need to hedge? Or do you think this will just play out with spot prices being higher than forward curves over time?
Joseph Nigro - Exelon Corp.:
Praful, good morning. It's Joe Nigro. It does imply that the best way for us to get to market with our generation is through our load serving business. As you know, we have a very substantial commercial, industrial and residential business, and that we also participate in all the wholesale load serving auctions, and we'll continue to do that. And our portfolio of output on the generation side is well-balanced with our power load portfolio. And we use the standard product market to what I would call filling gaps geographically or for timing or other things. But the balance with our gen-to-load matching strategy is very strong and we'll continue to do that.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Okay. So you don't need incremental retail at this point. What you have already is fully matched is what you think.
Joseph Nigro - Exelon Corp.:
If we see an opportunity and it makes economic sense, I think you've seen in the past with the acquisitions of both Integrys as well as ConEd, they've been value enhancing to the bottom line and we've been disciplined in how we'll do it and we'll continue to take that approach. And if there's an opportunity in the future to bolt-on more retail, it'd be a good fit for our portfolio, we would definitely do that.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Got you. Thanks so much, guys.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Michael Weinstein from Credit Suisse.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Hi, guys. Hey. Just to follow up a couple of earlier questions. Could ExGen be spun just publicly, even a small amount of it, just to establish that independent validation evaluation, and while still enabling you to benefit from its cash flows and other innovation benefits at the Utilities?
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
We'd have to think through that one. Right now, we have a very solid strategy on growth and value creation with the ExGen cash flows. So it differentiates us and we're not issuing equity at the holding company to support this growth. There's no dilution coming in with this growth. It is very strong organic growth. We're adding another PHI over the next couple of years without paying a premium. So, in Q2, want to validate its value by spinning it off would not be probably the approach that we would go for. If we ever found that the value is constrained or our strategic growth was hampered based off of the companies being together, you could have that conversation to create value. But there's no reason that having them together and using the synergies that we have between having the two companies, that we shouldn't be valued fairly for that as we execute on our strategic plan. So, could you physically possibly spin a Genco? You could, and then you'd have to consider when you did that what's its investment grade, what's the impediment on its trading business, what's the issue with going to the capital markets to maintain your nuclear plant, all kinds of hair around that. But we like what we're doing right now. We like the way that we're creating the value. And we think we are differentiating ourselves, as I've said, from any other merchant generator in the business. Strong balance sheets, different class of assets, fairly – very well run, and fairly matched to our load book. So we like where we're at and wouldn't speculate on anything else, and really can see the value creation and want the market to recognize it as we do execute on what we say. We tell you we're going do something, we do it, and it comes in in value creation to you.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
And also, just to clarify on Jack's earlier remarks, with ExGen's projected gross margins a bit lower in the forward curve and also from the removal of other assets, the offset that allows you to achieve $3 billion of debt pay-down, that that target has not been changed, it's mostly efficiencies, cost savings, and that kind of thing?
Jonathan W. Thayer - Exelon Corp.:
It hasn't been changed.
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
It's cash flow-positive, the retirement of TMI.
Jonathan W. Thayer - Exelon Corp.:
Yeah.
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
It's...
Jonathan W. Thayer - Exelon Corp.:
$225 million through 2021. With EGTP, we have the debt – what's that?
Joseph Nigro - Exelon Corp.:
JV.
Jonathan W. Thayer - Exelon Corp.:
All right. And we have the proceeds from the renewables JV. Where EGTP is $0.02 to $0.03 accretive, TMI is $0.04 to $0.07 accretive. So I think we're very comfortable with our outlook for free cash flow. And we'd expect to update the number that we provide in the Q4 call in next year.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Okay. Very helpful. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Shar Pourreza from Guggenheim Partners.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Morning, guys.
Jonathan W. Thayer - Exelon Corp.:
Hey, Shar.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
So, most of my questions were answered. But let me ask, what's sort of the viability within your long-term plans around Colorado Bend and Wolf Hollow, especially given the fact that you're doing much more contracted cash flows at ExGen? Is there an opportunity to either look to hedge these out with the munis or sell it to other IPPs?
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
These are assets that are unlike the rest of the stack in Texas with their efficiency, their flexibility on ramping. They do provide a good support to our load book. We built them from way below what market costs are for greenfield sites or even brownfield sites, with our work through our venture with GE and our contractors. So they were built at a good price. They operate very well. We do have a load book in Texas that they serve well. And there's no need, as you can see from our debt metrics, for a fire sale. So our origination folks are constantly looking at longer-term contract sales, and they'll be doing that as they continue in Texas and match some of the book that we have to those potentials. So, Joe can add any more onto that.
Joseph Nigro - Exelon Corp.:
No, I think you covered it, Chris. I think the big thing is, when you think about what we're doing with the disposition of the assets we currently own in EGTP, the fill-in of these two assets to our load book is very helpful when you think about the volatility in Texas and you think about ancillary services and how these units are able to ramp in such quick rates. I think it's a very nice fit. And from an origination perspective, as Chris said, we look at all corners of the market and we serve all types of customers and we're open to all opportunities. and we'll continue to explore those, especially with these two new state-of-the-art assets.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Got it. And then, Joe, might as well just ask you is, with the pending potential policy initiatives in Pennsylvania, and obviously made some great headwinds in Illinois and New York, how are you sort of thinking about you layering on hedges in Pennsylvania pending potential legislation that may come about?
Joseph Nigro - Exelon Corp.:
Yeah. We think about that a lot, and we've talked quite a bit about how we run our hedging program. It's not an independent decision. We work very closely with all the finance organizations, the risk management organization. And we have a program where we're looking at the needs of the cash flows and the earnings of the company, and we match our hedging profile to that, and make sure that we can maintain the credit ratings that we have and we focus on our liquidity. And all of those things put together drive some of the decisions with our program. As you can tell, looking at our numbers, we're well behind our ratable hedging plan in both 2018 and 2019, and you could see that's the case in the Midwest and that's the case in Texas as well. And it aligns to our market views. But those aren't independent decisions. They're tied in directly with what we're doing with debt reduction and managing our balance sheet, and we will continue to do that.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Terrific. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
And our final question comes from the line of Angie Storozynski from Macquarie.
Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Thank you. So, one more question about the retail book. So I understand that this is a preferred way of hedging your generation portfolio, but most of your retail book is C&I and those are sophisticated customers who basically look at the forward curve and then add probably a margin to what they see in the curve. So, that wouldn't necessarily help you with the forward curve not fully reflecting supply and demand fundamentals. So, how about shifting maybe towards mass retail customers or increasing your presence in that business?
Joseph Nigro - Exelon Corp.:
We are the fifth largest residential marketer in the country now on the power side, and we will continue to focus on growing that business, similar to the way we're continuing to focus to grow our commercial industrial business. Like C&I marketing, it is a competitive market and you have headroom that you have to take into account and customer behavior. But we continue to focus on all of that and our mass market business continues to grow each year and we've been very successful on that regard and we'll continue to push it.
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
With reasonable margins.
Joseph Nigro - Exelon Corp.:
Absolutely.
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
The discipline that's required to continue to grow in residential versus some competitors that may not have the same pricing margin, we don't need to chase volume, we chase margin.
Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Okay. And the second question is about your disclosures for ExGen. So, obviously, as you're pointing out with retirements or deconsolidations of your gas plants in Texas, there's an offsetting change in O&M. Why not show EBITDA projections instead of gross margin? Just to capture that O&M production which would then fully show the financial backdrop that the business has?
Jonathan W. Thayer - Exelon Corp.:
So, Angie, we think we give you transparency into the operating costs of the company. We update that on an annual basis at the beginning of any given year. And you can back into effectively the operating costs of EGTP and TMI with the EPS disclosure that we give you. And then, I guess, finally, we give you some incremental data on slide 33 that also should help you. So I think we're very comfortable with the gross margin disclosures that we have. It allows us to update it on a quarterly basis without having to update the entirety of the income statement, and that's the plan going forward.
Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Okay. Thanks.
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
Well, I'd like to thank you, all, for your interest in joining us today on the earnings call. We look forward to seeing many of you at the fall conferences and hear your questions on the earnings call in November. So, thank you very much and that will end the call.
Operator:
This is the end of today's call. You may now disconnect, and have a great day.
Executives:
Daniel Eggers - Senior Vice President of Investor Relations Christopher Crane - President and Chief Executive Officer Jonathan Thayer - Chief Financial Officer. Joseph Nigro - Exelon Corp.
Analysts:
Greg Gordon - Evercore Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities Stephen Byrd - Morgan Stanley Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Partners
Operator:
Good morning. My name is Josephine, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Exelon Corporation 2017 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. I would now like to turn the conference over to Dan Eggers, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Daniel Eggers:
Thank you, Josephine. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our first quarter 2017 earnings conference call. Leading the call today are Chris Crane, Exelon's President and Chief Executive Officer, and Jack Thayer, Exelon's Chief Financial Officer. They're joined by other members of Exelon's senior management team, who will be available to answer your questions following our prepared remarks. We issued our earnings release this morning along with the presentation, both of which can be found on the Investor Relations section of Exelon's website. The earnings release and other matters which we discuss during today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ from our forward-looking statements based on factors and assumptions discussed in today's material and comments made during the call. Please refer to today's 8-K and Exelon's other SEC filings for discussions of risk factors and factors that may cause results to differ from management's projections, forecasts, and expectations. Today's presentation also includes references to adjusted operating earnings and other non-GAAP measures. Please refer to the information contained in the appendix of our presentation and our earnings release for reconciliations between non-GAAP measures to the nearest equivalent GAAP measures. We have scheduled 45 minutes for today's call. I'll turn it now over to Chris Crane, Exelon's CEO.
Christopher Crane:
Thanks, Dan, and good morning, and thank you all for joining us. We are off to a great start in 2017. In March, we marked our one year anniversary of the merger between Exelon and Pepco Holdings. Since they closed, PHI has successfully executed on merger commitments achieved synergy savings and made significant progress towards full integration. We also continue to work hard on the regulatory front. Since the beginning of the year PHI closed up the Delmarva Maryland rate case and reached a settlement for our Electric and Gas rate case in Delaware. We are now down to just a Pepco DC cases from our first plant cycle of rate case filings. That said, our regular team is already started the second cycle of rate cases at Pepco Maryland and ACE’s plant. At ExGen we completed the acquisition of FitzPatrick power plant representing the 25th nuclear reactor where we have ownership stake. We welcome the new employees to the Exelon family. We also announced the Exelon Generation renewable joint venture which is allowing us to recycle capital at evaluation meaningfully above the value implied for our ExGen at our current share price. The JV allows us to make even faster progress on our debt reduction goals without diminishing our commitment to renewable power. We continue to focus on the legal challenges to the zero emission credits or ZEC in New York and Illinois we remain confident that our arguments will prevail. We’ll cover these points in more detail on the call, but I wanted to highlight what we have done while staying focused on the day to day operations. As shown on slide 5, on a GAAP basis we’ve earned a $1.07 versus $0.19 a share last year and on an operating basis we earned $0.65 versus $0.68 last year which puts as top of our $0.55 to $0.65 range and above consensus of $0.62. Moving to slide 6, our first quarter operational report was strong, our colored block charts highlight operating performance and customer satisfaction for the utilities. Legacy Exelon utilities remain almost entirely first quartile. PECO actually had its best customer satisfaction rating ever during the first quarter. BGE experienced the best ever CAIDI and SAIFI performance of all time. At PHI we are encouraged by the progress we are making and our customers are seeing the benefits. For example, by using a common Lockout-Tagout process, a procedure that establishes a zone of protection while restoring equipment we are able to send over 400 employees and contractors from BGE, ComEd and PECO to support the storm restoration at Delmarva during winter storm Stella. As a result, Delmarva customers had their power restored two days sooner. Our thanks to everybody that helped in accomplishing that speedy recovery. The power of Exelon utilities platform has significant benefit to our customers. We continue to improve upon these metrics to meet reliability commitments we have made to provide better service to our customers. The nuclear team had a great quarter also. They completed three refueling outages and achieved a capacity factor of 94%. They had also had the fastest refueling outage ever for Calvert Cliffs nuclear station 2 running 20 days. In the power business, we realized renewable energy capture rate of nearly 96% and a power dispatch match over 99%. Our two new bills, CCGTs in Texas have both achieved [first flyer] and are now selling test power onto the grid. The state of the art plants which are totally nearly 2,200 megawatts are on budget, on schedule for full commercial operations in the second quarter. We expect that they will be ready to participate in Texas this summer. At Constellation, our highly hedged portfolio in 2017 mitigates the impacts of weaker power prices and lower low given their mild winter weather. Even in this recent low volatility environment our C&I business has been able to hold on to the margins and keep customers renewables. On slide 7, we view 2016 is a great success in delivering our commitments and preserving some of our -- nuclear units by securing compensation for their clean energy attributes. For 2017, we are focused on executing on these gains we made last year and more importantly affirming the ZEC programs in the quarter. In New York, litigation is further along at this point. On March 29, the judge in New York Federal court heard all arguments on our emotions to dismiss. We made strong arguments of this hearing and believes it lies clearly on our side. We do ask that – we do did ask when we expect a decision but the judge has not given a specific timeline or deadline to issue [FERC] order. If we prevail on the motion to dismiss, we would expect the other side to appeal that decision. If the judge denies on motion to dismiss, we will move forward with the cases planned. As I have said previously, we are confident in the strength of our case. In Illinois, two groups of Plaintiffs have challenged the ZEC in Federal Court and the cases are being before one judge. The Plaintiff’s filed for preliminary injunction on March 31st we intervened in that case on April 10 and we filed motions to dismiss. The judge has held a preliminary injunction motion while he receives whole briefing on the motion to dismiss. He will then determine whether there is a legal basis to go forward. That briefing will be completed by May 15 and the judge is scheduled to inform the parties of his intention on May 22. In the interim, we start recognizing ZEC revenues in New York on April 1. In Illinois the utilities have filed tariffs to [complete] getting collecting the ZEC payments on June 1. We don’t expect the actual ZEC procurement process in Illinois to conclude until later in the fall we remain confident that the ZEC programs will be upheld in the courts to the benefit of the state, the communities and these valuable resources. As we have discussed last year in our carbon policy principles, we see state programs as an essential mechanism until we have a more cohesive federal policy that values clean base load generation. Energy’s Secretary, -- recent directed to look at the importance of preserving base load generation is early but encouraging. We appreciate the Secretary’s focus to promote the needed market reforms to compensate these assets. We will support the DOEs effort as they move forward. Turning to the upcoming PJM auction, we understand the investment community is paying close attention particularly after the disappointing MISO capacity auction results. Joe Nigro is available to answer more detailed questions if you have them, but let me share a few thoughts around the auction. To the two positive we are going to a 100% CP for the first time which will put a higher performance burden on the entire fleet. We still think this should lead to a more responsible bidding given the higher risk around non-performance. The CETL numbers or the import capacity into ComEd and EMAAC LDAs have tightened this year versus last year. The tightening can flag more constraint market conditions than last year in these zones which could help in separation. So the negative PGM load, its demand forecast again for this auction in the approved seasonal aggregation that will allow products that otherwise would not clear to participate in a 100% CP world. Finally, we have the risk of more uneconomical generation being built primarily in Pennsylvania in Ohio. These drivers were important but we still expect clearing prices to come down to bidding behavior. You have seen our bid our assets in recent auctions to reflect the underlying economic needs of the individual plants, which in turn had led to some of our plants not clearing. You should expect us to bid our assets in the same responsible fashion in this next upcoming auction. Now let me turn the call over to Jack to walk through the numbers.
Jonathan Thayer:
Thank you Chris, and good morning, everyone. My remarks today will cover our first quarter results, an overview of our current rate cases, an update of our gross margin disclosures and a review of some of the events that occurred this quarter. Turning to slide 8, we had a strong quarter financially and operationally across the company. For the first quarter we delivered adjusted non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.65 per share, at the top of our guidance range of $0.55 to $0.65 per share. This compares to $0.68 per share for the first quarter of 2016. Exelon’s utilities delivered a combined $0.47 per share versus our plant and utility results were impacted by unfavorable weather at PECO and PHI which was more than offset by O&M timing across all the utilities. With 70% of our distribution rate base and decoupled jurisdictions including ComEd starting in 2017, we experienced less volatility on our utility earnings from record warm weather in January and February than if we did not have these programs. To help put this winter in context, this was the first time in 146 years when there was no snow on the ground at Chicago for both January and February. Looking across PJM, January and February was the warmest on record since data started being collected in 1950. Generation had a strong quarter relative to plan earning $0.18 per share. We had good performance from our nuclear assets with better capacity factors than budgeted and our constellation team once again delivered strong results despite weak power prices and low volatility. Turning to slide 9. The $0.65 per share in the first quarter of this year was $0.03 per share lower than the first quarter of 2016. To the positive, we had a full quarter of contribution from PHI relative to only 8 days last year, which added $0.09. The other utilities benefitted from rate relief and higher rate base, partly offset at PECO with even milder weather than last year. ExGen was down year-over-year primarily on the loan impacts of lower capacity prices and power price realization as well as more planned refueling outages. Turning to slide 10, we are reaffirming our full year guidance in this range of $2.50 to $2.80 per share. We expect to deliver operating earnings of $0.45 to $0.55 in the second quarter compared with $0.65 last year. Our second quarter results will include contributions from the FitzPatrick plants and the plants of the New York ZEC program that started on April 1. The Illinois ZEC legislation will go into effect on June 1, and plant procurement is expected to occur later this fall. Plants receiving contracts with recognized revenues retroactive the June 1st effective date. Moving to slide 11. Our utilities continue to execute well delivering strong earned returns in the quarter. Looking at the trailing 12-month booked ROEs we saw nice improvements even relative to what we showed last quarter. At PHI we saw all of the utilities registered gains with some that are coming as revenues from the first cycle of rate cases are starting to flow through to results. For the Legacy Exelon utilities we continue to see strong earned ROEs over 10% that led the consolidated Exelon’s utilities platform to nearly 10% including PHI. We have plenty of work to do at Utilities and with our regulators to keep improving the product we are delivering to our customers, but we are happy with where the overall business is performing. We are obviously pleased with where our earned ROEs are trending, but I want to remind you that there will be variability in the earned ROEs that are different utilities as we go forward. The timing of rate case implementation, weather comparability and in-service states were all at back results. We think the ability to earn strong ROEs and the plan that we had in plan at PHI they improved their ROEs will be the recipe for our future success. On slide 12 we have an update on our rate cases. Since our fourth quarter call, we have closed out the Delmarva Maryland case with a revenue increase of $38 million. We’ve also reached unanimous settlement in our Delmarva Delaware Electric and gas cases for $31.5 million and $4.9 million respectively and would expect commission approval during the second quarter. From our first cycle of planned rate cases we are now down just to the Pepco DC case but we expect the commission decision later in July. We are proud of the hard work from our utilities and regulatory teams, these efforts are helping to get PHI’s revenues and earned book ROEs back on course while we simultaneously improve performance for our customers. As we have shared with you many times before, we’ve always viewed the turnaround in PHI earned ROEs as a – rate case cycle process. To that end, we filed our second rate cases in ACE and Pepco Maryland this quarter. Combined with the outstanding cases from the first cycle that I previously mentioned we are currently asking for $252 million in revenues which reflect recovery on multiple years of capital investments that have been made to improve the reliability of the grid across these jurisdictions. We expect the final ruling on Pepco Maryland and ACE likely in Q4, 2017 and first quarter of 2018 respectively. We plan to file a second cycle of cases in most if not all of PHI’s jurisdictions in 2017 with all completed by the end of 2018 putting us in a position to earn between 9% and 10% ROEs in 2019. More details on the rate cases and the schedules to be found on slide 29 through 36 in the appendix. Slide 13, provides our gross margin update for ExGen. In 2017, total gross margin is flat to our last disclosure. During the quarter, we executed on $150 million of Power New Business and $50 million of Non-Power New Business. We are highly hedged for the rest of this year and have fell down -- generation to load matching strategy. Total gross margin decreased in the first quarter by $50 million in both 2018 and 2019 due to the impact of price changes on our order portfolio. We ended the quarter approximately 12% to 15% behind our ratable hedging program in 2018 an 8% to 11% behind ratable in 2019 when considering cross commodity hedges. The majority of our length is concentrated in the Midwest to align to our view of spot market upside at [Nine]. Although we have increased our lengths in other regions as well. We are comfortable to be more open when we look at market fundamentals. For example, oil regional natural gas prices today are over a $1 per MMbtu higher than they realized last year, yet the forwards for power are only about $1 per megawatt higher. We do not believe that is a sustainable situation. To that point I should note that power prices have risen since the start of the second quarter and have reversed about half of the first quarter price declines. On slide 14 we have highlighted some key recent events. On March 31, 2017 we executed on the creation of the Exelon Generation renewable JV, which will provide us with $400 million of pretax cash, including allocated debt that puts total JV Enterprise value at approximately $1.7 billion, the price implies an EV to EBITDA multiple over ten times and $1 per – [KW] value over $1,200. The JV consists of 1,296 megawatts of renewable generation capacity which is about 35% of our renewable output and has an average contract life of 14 years. The JV structure provides the option to drop down contracted renewable assets from our portfolio in the future. The proceeds from this sale will be used to accelerate our deleveraging strategy. Also on March 31, we closed on the acquisition of the FitzPatrick nuclear station from Entergy which adds 838 megawatts of nuclear capacity to our portfolio. The FitzPatrick plant is part of the New York ZEC program and will receive ZEC payments for the next 12 years which started on April 1. The plant is now operated by Exelon and I am happy to report we had a clean cut over of FitzPatrick onto the Exelon platform. We are excited to have the FitzPatrick employees as part of the Exelon family. Our Exelon generation Texas partnership, commonly referred to as EGTP is a portfolio of 3,476 megawatts of gas generation in Texas. In 2014, we raised $675 million of non-recourse project finance for the assets which currently has a balance of approximately $650 million. With a downturn in ERCOT power markets these assets have been under pressure with a debt rating at a discount of base value for some time and the plant is struggling to generate adequate cash flows. Due to the combination of challenge cash flows and our decision not to inject additional equity we have come to terms with the lenders to pursue an orderly sale of the assets on their... The modest current earnings and all of the debt are still included in our financial outlook. However, we see the ultimate exit from these assets being accretive to our UPS] and debt to EBITDA multiples starting in 2018. In light of the process we are not in a position to expand further out in this transaction. Finally during the quarter, we decided to discontinue the sales process of Mystic 8&9 assets. We were exploring a sale of these assets as a direct result of interest received from potential buyers. During the sales process we ran into some issues with the fuel supply agreement that needs to be addressed. And as we said we would only transact if we were to realize a price greater than our – value. Our continuing to own these assets does not impact our commitments on our debt-to-EBTIDA target and debt reduction plans that we’ve already shared with you. Turning to slide 15, we remain committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet in our investment grade credit rating. We are forecasting to be a 3.2 times net-to-EBITDA at ExGen by the end of 2017 and have a clear path to our long term target of three times debt-to-EBITDA. On a recourse debt basis, we are already well ahead of our target and taking into account the sale of EGTP we would be on target overall. As we said before we will look to [Indiscernible] whole project once we have reached three times target at ExGen. I’ll now turn the call back to Chris for his closing remarks.
Christopher Crane:
Thanks, Jack. This brings us to back to our value proposition shown on slide 16 which ain’t familiar. It is unchanged from our last earnings report and we remain committed to these points. We continue to grow their utility rate base at 6.5% annually through 2020 and regulated EPS by 6% to 8% annually through 2020. We continue to use free cash flow generated at ExGen to fund the incremental equity needs of the utilities of $2.5 billion and pay down approximately $3 billion of debt over the next four years at ExGen and the Holding Company. We are focused on optimizing value for ExGen business by seeking fair compensation for our carbon free generation fleet closing uneconomic plans, opportunistically selling assets where it makes sense to accelerate our debt reduction plan and maximizing value through our gentle load matching strategy. We continue to focus on sustaining strong investment grade credit metrics and grow our dividend in a consistent visible manner. Thank you for your interest and we are now ready for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Greg Gordon with Evercore.
Greg Gordon:
Hello good morning.
Christopher Crane:
Good morning, Greg.
Greg Gordon:
I notice that when you gave the update on your cash flow projections for the balance of the year that it’s several hundred million dollars higher. I don’t remember exactly the slide number. It’s slide 18. It looks like the utilities are the major contributors to that with a modest decline and expected ExGen cash flow, can you give us a little more color on that?
Christopher Crane:
Sure Greg. It is the utilities and some of its energy efficiency timing and some of its just working capital, so we are about I think $200 million roughly higher than our expectation.
Greg Gordon:
Okay. Is that sort of a – is that a sort of a permanent affect in terms of as I think about rolling the balance sheet forward or is that more of a timing issue on when you are going to collect cash flows or spend capital?
Christopher Crane:
The working capital is more of a timing issue, some of the energy efficiency is permanent.
Greg Gordon:
Okay, can you give us the sense of what the split is there?
Christopher Crane:
$100 million energy efficiency, sorry.
Greg Gordon:
Okay. Thank you very much. Second question and maybe it’s not something you are able to really engage with me on the call on, but one of the reasons why I think the stock has underperformed is because people are looking obviously you’ve had a little bit of softness in the 18,19 curves. You already told us that’s bounced a little bit but if people are looking forward to the sort of 2020 role coming this fall and looking at the open theoretically open position and worried about the capacity market print and thinking while 2020 is going to be another down year. So I don’t know if you can comment on how that looks today and also how that dovetails with what you continue to do with vis-à-vis debt reduction at the – at ExGen because while the balance sheet looks like it’s in absolutely great shape today if EBITDA keeps going south, there is sort of a bar keeps going up every year in terms of what you have to do with your cash flow to keep it at that level of leverage.
Christopher Crane:
A couple of thoughts Greg. One, I think it’s probably given the liquidity in the market premature to forecast our 2020 ExGen earnings. But one thing to keep in context, on a recourse basis by 2020 we’ll have $4 billion of debt. That is the most pristine balance sheet I think in this sector. So, from a strength perspective with the balance sheet and the ability to deal with the cyclicality of markets I think we are well positioned. Our fundamental perspective would be that as liquidity returns to the market prices are going up across and our hedging approach and the length that we are carrying relative to ratable is the master of that. So I think it’s meaningfully premature to be trading on 20/20 in 2017.
Greg Gordon:
Fair enough. Thank you guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Jonathan Arnold with Deutsche Bank.
Jonathan Arnold:
Good morning guys.
Christopher Crane:
Good morning.
Jonathan Arnold:
Question on, you mentioned I think that you would be bidding the units in the PJM auction and the same I think you said responsible fashion. Can you give us any insight into what you see as different in the PJM auction set up with respect to say the and the QUAD which has the ZEC and Clinton which obviously cleared at a low price in MISO is there anything we should be thinking as we compare those two situations?
Joseph Nigro:
Good morning. It’s Joe Nigro. I’ll take that question and answer it and if I’ll start by saying we have a long standing practice of really not discussing our bidding strategy around the capacity auctions where we think it will clear. I think there is one thing that we have to take into account; it’s the timing that you auctioned. The MISO auction was for June of this year through May of next year, and the PJM auction obviously is much further out in the curve. When you think about the operations of the power plant and the fuel loaded in the [Indiscernible] for example, that plant was going to continue to operate during that period. What I’d most say about QUAD cities in the bidding is we are going to continue to remain responsible in the way we bid our capacity reflecting the underlying economics of our plant and that’s consistent with what we’ve done with past options. I think the major question mark with this option continues to be as Chris mentioned bidding behavior from the existing generation as well as the discipline associated with new goals. As it relates to existing facilities we continue to see economically challenged plants that have cleared previous options and in addition to that we see the economics, the new goals being marginal. In your last option we cleared about 27 gig watts of base capacity which was about 16% of the total procurement and it remains to be seen how that 27 gig watts would participate in this auction but the big variables as I mentioned will continue to be the bidding of all the plants and we will remain discipline in that regard with all our facilities.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. Thanks, Joe. And then, could I also ask on that, I guess, topical issue today, but can you quantify to or describe your exposure to Westinghouse as a supplier presumably in the field business primarily and how we should -- is there any concerns you have with regard to the bankruptcy?
Christopher Crane:
It’s something that we follow closely not only as a supplier but for the industry. We have reviewed our positions that we have commercially with them. We’re not concerned at this time, but we’ll continue to watch it closely few fabrication. We continue to see that is an ongoing entity in the services business. We continue to gain support to see that is an ongoing entity. None of us know how it’s going to shake out yet, but we have minimal exposure there.
Jonathan Arnold:
So, can you give us sort of percentage of the fleet of that service or supply fuel too perhaps?
Christopher Crane:
I can get the number for you. We continue to competitively bid our reactor fuel suppliers between multiple suppliers and we move that around based off of pricing but we are not held hostage to a single entity on fuel fabrication.
Jonathan Arnold:
All right. Thanks Chris.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research.
Steve Fleishman:
Yes. Hi, good morning. Just wanted to get your thoughts on this DOE review going on baseload generation and maybe we also just have this FERC Conference and how these might tie into kind of state-by-state ZEC process that has occurred so far, we’re trying to be of help this for generation. What could come out of DOE?
Christopher Crane:
Yes. Steve, let me start off and talk a little bit about the Technical Conference over the last couple of days. There were three buckets of issues that I think we got to look at. One is carbon pricing on the market and what FERC could do to facilitate the states who are interested in doing that. The second bucket would be the Mopar issues, that’s PJM Grid 2020 [Indiscernible] ISO put out, and the third bucket are energy reforms. And so I think all three of these things are implied as well in connection with the Secretaries. Now, let me talk about the three. First, we think there was a constructive discussion around having one of the issues that has limited the ability of states to incorporate aggressive pricings between the states and I think there was good discussion around what FERC could do to address that problem. There is I think a plenty of degree to solve Technical Conference, a growing recognition that putting carbon explicitly in the market is something that would address a lot of these issues and there is growing receptivity to that. The issue of the Mopar that's where I think it most directly addresses the state ZEC programs and the REC programs. The New England proposal doesn't deal with existing baseload generation or existing generation of any kind, frankly and that’s consistent with FERC’s President. And so that template wouldn’t have any effect on the state programs. The PJM proposal does however deal with existing resources. And we have not historically supported that proposal. We recognize PJM has made some important changes and those were talked about at the Technical conferences. The issue with the Mopar from our perspective is that it is the distraction from some unfinished work that we believe FERC and PJM want to get to first. Unfortunately it’s become little bit of tempest in a teapot, in a sense that there’s a false narrative out there that the challenges to the IPP sector are driven by ZEC and REC policies, when in fact number of our college in business saw equity value is dropped by 70% and 80% before the ZEC even came in to our dialogue. So we don’t think the Mopar is an approach that it’s going to be workable, applies in a face of what states are looking to do. I don’t think it will that effective. We talked about MISO Zone 4, its notable that. And we did Clinton in a way where we’d not have cleared the matter of auction or had been excluded by Mopar, the price in MISO would have risen from a$1.50 to $5 a megawatt that certainly not going to address the downstate issues that ING and others are facing. At the end, we agree with what Chairman, [Indiscernible] and she basically question the wisdom of approaching this problem set with more Mopars per units that are receiving state environmental attribute payments. And I think that's why New York ISO, MISO and others are not going in that direction. So, that’s we don’t agree with the direction on the Mopar, but let me talk to you about something important that came up during recession and I think we do reporting that. And that is [India] talked about in Monday session and I’m going to loosely quote saying that we politely ignored energy market design problems that are under value in baseload access. And here, we can’t afford to ignore those problems any more. And we completely agree with that. We talk and talk over the last few years of that energy pricing problems in the markets, can’t back sold, negative pricing, to back that certain units and set price certain hours, the over commitment of resources driving uplift and a whole host of issues that we’ve had technical conference is on and white paper on and we just having gotten, started and working on that. And as a consequence, and not addressing those energy market issues, states and our customers are being deprived of assets that add resiliency, they add fuel diversity and they add some environmental benefit. And so, what we expect to do at the end of the technical conference you heard California and others echo this is we want set a deadline for bringing to conclusion again our energy market reforms that we’ve talked about. And we think that talking about Mopars or other things that interfere with states rates before we fixed the energy market problems it’s a little bit like putting your shoes on before you putting your pants up. At the end of the day, it makes you look a little bit sold. And so once we get a reconstituted format at FERC, we’re going to go after these energy price reforms and we think Secretary Perry's memo opens the door to address these issues. So we think for last couple of days at Secretary Perry's memo gives us an opening to look at some unfinished business that we have get at it. So, long answer, big subject, but we see lot of promise than we what we saw in last couple of days and we’d see a lot of promise with the DOE is working on that. We have to get this stuff over the finish line.
Steve Fleishman:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with UBS Securities.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Good morning everyone.
Christopher Crane:
Good morning Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
So, perhaps just to take it back couple of questions here, can we talk about the non nuclear generation strategy, specifically I wanted to just follow-up little bit on the renewable sell down. First, what's the remaining EBITDA that could be eligible to be sold down if you want to qualify it that way? And then secondly, can you talk about whether or not you would eventually review the mystic sales. Is this something about restructuring the fuel arrangement and a matter of time or is probably something that it’s going to be on the back burner for a little bit? And actually I’ll throw the third question at the same time. With regards to Texas its not be very clear about this deed. The new Texas combined cycle assets or separate discrete process to the extent which that you ultimately divest and/or lose control of the ExGen taxes asset. It’s correct?
Christopher Crane:
That last question is correct. And they’re totally separate and would be operated that way. They are not part of the divestiture process. On the first two questions, Jack.
Jack Thayer:
So Julien, with the JV structure we have the opportunity to sell down further assets, the two that come to mind are our AVSR solar facility which in 29th but that would not occur until 2019, but we’ve got to get through the ITC recovery period for that. And the second assets would be our Albany Green Energy facility, it is wood-burning plant that hasn’t contract to off-takers down in Georgia, that’s coming online this year which could facilitate to drop down end of 2017 more likely 2018 and that’s all contemplated as part of the overall structure with the JV. With respect to the EBITDA I’m not going to drill down into that and with respect to the GDP given the sales process that we’re working with the lenders on, I just don’t think it’s pretty impress to disclose the – and then with respect to Mystic, again, I answer that.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Yes. Would you revisit Mystic, just to follow-up on that one or is that something is off of the table for now?
Christopher Crane:
We’re not going to talk a lot of details, but as we see in asset in that portfolio as a potential to create value and recycled capital we’ll look at them. We will look at it on an annual basis. We have some work to do on that one site, but we’ll continue to evaluate it going forward.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Excellent. Just to understand the JV structure bit further. On the renewable sale why not sell down the whole entity overtime as part of a wider deleveraging, why opt for this sort of JV structure?
Christopher Crane:
We’re still committed to clean portfolio. It’s being in the renewable business is still part of our strategy. At this point maintaining the operational control, that maintenance and other facilities is important for us for our investment. And we’re getting a fair return from those, but at this point we felt that the valuation that we were getting in the market allowed us to recycle the capitals, so we’re not existing the renewable business and we continue to put about 125 million a year into solar at the CNI level or some of our national customers and We’ll continue to look at that portfolio how to best manage those investments going forward.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Excellent. Thank you for the patient.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Stephen Byrd with Morgan Stanley.
Stephen Byrd:
Hi. Good morning.
Christopher Crane:
Hi, Steve.
Stephen Byrd:
I wanted to follow-up up on Steve’s question on the department of energy review. In terms of potential agencies or entities involved in your mind is that most likely to be FERC or Federal Legislation, in other words, I guess I'm struggling to figure out how the Department of Energy itself could provide economic support for baseload whether the nuclear, coal or gas. What sort of entities would most likely be involved and I guess I’m thinking if the states are providing value for environmental benefits from ZECs and the ISOs are providing the reliability benefits through capacity performance. What other elements are not being captured? Or what other tools are potential here?
Christopher Crane:
Yes. Let me assume this [Indiscernible] couple of parts to that. First we think the DOE has an important role in setting policy, I think the implementation inform of that policy could in certain instances being new legislation, it could be things that are at the ARC in terms of regulatory burdens on nuclear, but it would involve the commission in that sense, it could involve changes in rules at FERC. But DOE is going to have an important voice in our view and this policy discussion and we’ll set the tone even if you can’t complete all of the objectives. There are certain tools that DOE has Section 202(c) authority under the Federal Power Act as an example allows them to secure resources in the market that are needed. That is a power that has been used sparingly I thing only two times in history, but certainly there is a discussion around the use of it for baseload resources. With regard to attribute payments I think environmental attribute payments I think we’re kind of been to wait and see where the administration goes on carbon, but I think you’re general sentiment is correct that that’s not something we see immediately coming out of the department. But U.S. kind of more fundamental question is, states are covering environmental and PJM is covering the liability. What’s left? Well, I tell you what’s left. What’s left is resiliency which is a little bit of a different concept than reliability. Reliability assumes that pipeline infrastructure and other critical pieces are in place. PJM assumes that and says whether there is some reliability impacts or the reliability expectations could be met. Resiliency looks a little bit deeper at that and understands the impact of pipeline disruptions on natural gas-fired generation and should we start modeling those sorts of things, is there a value there. The other piece is that it’s not currently valued in the market is fuel diversity. As we transition to a market that is made up more and more of just natural gas, we’re exposing our customers to fuel price volatility in the long run. Those things because of the short-term nature of the market are fully considered, but if you look at Secretary Perry’s memo and it gets a second bullet point, second and third bullet points so that memo address those very issues.
Stephen Byrd:
That’s very, very helpful to think through. Really appreciate that. And then just I wanted to revisit your nuclear operational capabilities and appetite for growing your ownership of nuclear plants. I mean you acknowledge as a very strong nuclear owner and operator. Under what circumstances would you think about increasing ownership of merchant nuclear generation? What kind of criteria would you think about in terms of your appetite for doing so?
Christopher Crane:
Yes. We have interest in increasing merchant exposure across any technology. What we would look at is only contracted secure revenue streams going forward, it’s pretty clear cut.
Stephen Byrd:
That makes sense. But that could include state to state sort to determine payments rather than a classic PPAs, is that fair?
Christopher Crane:
Yes. That is fair.
Stephen Byrd:
Okay. That’s all I had. Thank you.
Christopher Crane:
Thanks. It’s time for one more question, operator.
Operator:
Okay. Your next question comes from Shahriar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Hey, guys. Good morning.
Christopher Crane:
Good morning.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Just real question on how you sort of thinking about the dividend and you’ve got utility that’d eventually to sell fund, sell fund the dividend and cover the whole co-interest. What data points are you looking at where you could sort of think about revisiting the growth rate. Is sort of clarity around PJM? Is clarity around ZECs? What sort of a data point we should be thinking about?
Christopher Crane:
Yes. We updated our dividend policy. The board updated the dividend policy about a year ago and gave you the clarity through 2018 on annual 2.5% increase of the dividend. As we said at the time we want to give you a longer-term view on dividend policy. What we need to do is execute on our rate cases in our efficiency at the utilities and in costs and operations. And so 2017 is going to be a big year to continue to have that focus. And so as we come through 2000 into 2018 we can have a dialogue with the board looking at we’re achieving or close to achieving the goal towards 2018, 2019 on where we were going financially in our focus and strategy. So next year – this year is a big to perform. Next year is a year where we should be working very hard to give you a longer term view.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Excellent. And then just lastly on retail, just maybe a little bit of an update. I mean, obviously there are some businesses that have changed hands. There some consolidation. There’s some obviously some trends, segment turnings into bit of oligopoly. So I'm curious on just from a generality standpoint what you're seeing as far as the margin environment and that would be helpful?
Joseph Nigro:
Good morning. It’s Joe Nigro. I’ll answer the last question first. Our retail margins for C&I origination still remain between that $2 to $4 we talked about well within that payment. The market hasn’t seen volatility and we continue to monitor that. The consolidation overall helps because there is less participants in the marketplace we’ve acquired companies ourselves, obviously all the big entities that have come to this face that hasn’t been there historically. That’s been a positive. We have seen some aggressive bidding behavior by some smaller entities in certain sectors like government, contracting and other things but overall we continue to monitor this very closely and we are comfortable with the projections we have in our margins remain in net $2 to $4 space.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Got it. Terrific. Thanks guys.
Christopher Crane:
Thanks, Pou.
Operator:
That is all the time we have for questions. I would now like to turn the call back over to Chris Crane for closing remarks.
Christopher Crane:
Thank you. We appreciate your time and interest in Exelon. We really are off to a great start in 2017 and look forward to executing on the commitments we’ve made to you. So appreciate your time today and I’ll end the call.
Operator:
That does conclude today’s conference call. You may now disconnect your lines.
Executives:
Daniel L. Eggers - Exelon Corp. Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp. Jonathan W. Thayer - Exelon Corp. Joseph Dominguez - Exelon Corp. Joseph Nigro - Exelon Corp.
Analysts:
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker) Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Partners
Operator:
Good morning. My name is Stephanie, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Exelon Corporation 2016 Q4 earnings call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Dan Eggers. Please go ahead, sir.
Daniel L. Eggers - Exelon Corp.:
Thank you, Stephanie. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our fourth quarter 2016 earnings conference call. Leading the call today are Chris Crane, Exelon's President and Chief Executive Officer, and Jack Thayer, Exelon's Chief Financial Officer. They're joined by other members of Exelon's senior management team, who will be available to answer your questions after our prepared remarks. We issued our earnings release this morning along with the presentation, both of which can be found on the Investor Relations section of Exelon's website. The earnings release and other matters which we discuss during today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ from our forward-looking statements based on factors and assumptions discussed in today's material and comments made during the call. Please refer to today's 8-K and Exelon's other SEC filings for discussions of risk factors and factors that may cause results to differ from management's projections, forecasts, and expectations. Today's presentation also includes references to adjusted operating earnings and other non-GAAP measures. Please refer to the information contained in the appendix of our presentation and our earnings release for reconciliations between non-GAAP measures to the nearest equivalent GAAP measures. We have scheduled 45 minutes for today's call. I'll turn it now over to Chris Crane, Exelon's CEO.
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
Thanks, Dan, and good morning to all. Thank you for joining us. 2016 was a monumental year for Exelon, and I'm very proud of what we have accomplished. We made great progress in the ongoing transformation of our company while delivering on our commitments. We performed well financially. Our 2016 GAAP earnings at $1.22 and our non-GAAP earnings were $2.68, landing near the top of our original guidance range of $2.40 to $2.70. At the utilities, we benefited from a hot summer and low storm costs. At ExGen, the nuclear fleet had its best performance year on record. And at Constellation, the team executed very, very well. In 2016, for the first time, our regulated utility, less the holding company, earnings represented more than half of the total earnings and is consistent with our goal for the utilities to be growing the majority of our EPS. And we've implemented a dividend growth strategy of 2.5% annually through 2018. In March, we closed on the acquisition of PHI, adding $8.3 billion to our utility rate base and creating a significant geographic footprint covering the Mid-Atlantic region. The integration of PHI is going better than planned, help by our experience with BGE. We are working our way through the first of the two cycles of catch-up rate cases at the PHI utilities. We're seeing additional opportunities to help and improve the business processes in the stakeholder outreach process as we go through those rate cases. The other banner highlight for 2016 was the creation of the ZEC programs in both New York and Illinois. For years, we have argued that all clean energy resources be treated the same way for their environmental attributes. We're able to work with a wide range of stakeholders in both states to enact programs that compensate these plans for their environmental attributes. As a result of these programs, we plan to continue to operate five plants and protect high-paying jobs, preserve needed tax basis in rural communities and maintain irreplaceable emission-free base load power production. These programs provide a supplemental cash flow for up to 12 years for some of our most at-risk plants. Illinois legislation also provides significant benefit for our customers in energy efficiency, additional renewable generation and to benefit lower income customers. The program also adds to the earnings visibility at ComEd by implementing a decoupling mechanism, supporting energy efficiency investments where we now will be able to earn a return on those investments, and extending the formula rate to 2022. In 2016, we also found ways to further grow stable revenue streams. We deployed $5.2 billion of CapEx at the utilities, growing the rate base by $2 billion, acquired ConEd Solutions, and will close the FitzPatrick nuclear plant station this spring. We have completed nine transmission and distribution rate cases, providing revenue increases of $397 million. None of these accomplishments would be possible without the remarkable 34,000 employees that work hard every day to keep the power and gas flowing. Our workers donated over 170,000 hours to local non-profits, and Exelon donated $46 million, both of which were the most ever for Exelon. The commitment to our community is clearly part of who we are and shows our engagement beyond the products we deliver every day. We also recognize that the support of our employees is essential to high-performing work cultures, and that is why Exelon took industry lead on two important initiatives in 2016. We expanded our paid leave policies to what are truly the best in class, with 16 weeks of maternity leave, 8 weeks for fathers and adopted parents, and 2 weeks of family leave. We were also the first utility to sign the White House Equal Pay pledge. Being a good citizen also means supporting our local businesses. In 2016, our spend with female and minority-owned businesses reached $1.9 billion, over 200% since 2011, and it represents almost 20% of our sourceable spending. The team has done a great job making sure we work with our suppliers across all our communities. Doing the right thing by our employees and communities is the smart thing for business. And more importantly, it's the right thing to do. We are proud to be leading the industry forward on these fronts. Turning to operations, our utilities had a great year. The legacy Exelon utilities continued to perform at top quartile on key operating and customer satisfaction metrics. These are the foundations of a constructive regulatory relationship. The efforts at PHI before the merger and our intense focus on operations since then has started to show benefits. The color blocks are improving even compared to 2015, although we did get some help from favorable weather in 2016. PHI is still improving. We're encouraged by the gain so far, and we have plan in place to deliver for our customers and stakeholders. The color blocks show great performance, but this actually is underselling how well we did in 2016. We actually had a number of best-evers this year. ComEd, BGE, PECO had had their best customer satisfaction ever. ComEd and PHI outage frequency were the best ever. And BGE had its shortest average outage duration ever. The benefits of our uniform management model across the utilities, our smart grid initiative, and our continued reliability spending are clearly paying dividends for our customers. Turning to our non-regulated business operations, we had a banner year in generation as well. Our nuclear fleet had its highest ever capacity factor at 94.6% versus the industry average of 90.4%, which allowed us to produce an additional 7 terawatt hours more and approximately $275 million of revenue than if we had just been average. We also had the shortest average refueling duration ever, just over 22 days versus the industry average of 37 days. The fact the entire fleet performed so well against the backdrop of potential plant closures and fighting for ZECs is truly a testament to the professionalism of the workforce, which we all are greatly appreciative of. Our gas, hydro, and renewable assets also had a good year, strong energy capture on the renewable and the power dispatch on our conventional plants. At Constellation, the team performed exceptionally well. Our customer renewal rate was 77% for electric and 91% for gas. Equally important, our new business win rate was at 28% last year, and our C&I market share grew to 25%. Now, I'm going to turn the call over to Jack to provide the financial update.
Jonathan W. Thayer - Exelon Corp.:
Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone. My remarks today will focus on 2016 results, 2017 earnings guidance, and updates to a number of our financial disclosures including gross margin. Going forward, the fourth quarter will be when we update key financial disclosures and roll our hedge disclosures over the year. On slide 8, as Chris stated, we had a very strong year financially and operationally across the company. For the full year, we delivered adjusted non-GAAP operating earnings of $2.68 per share, near the top end of our original guidance range of $2.40 to $2.70 per share. Strong performance at both our utility and generation businesses drove these results. The appendix contains further detail on both our fourth quarter and full-year financial results by operating company on slides 52 and 53. Turning to slide 9, we expect to deliver full-year 2017 adjusted operating earnings of $2.50 to $2.80 per share with the first quarter in the range of $0.55 to $0.65 per share. Our 2017 guidance range includes a full-year contribution from PHI, contributions from the FitzPatrick plants after closing, and the partial year impacts of the New York and Illinois ZEC programs that start on April 1 and June 1 respectively. The growth in utility earnings primarily reflects continued reliability investments at ComEd, plus higher formulaic allowed ROEs, as well as increased rates from the recent distribution rate cases at BGE, ACE, and Pepco Maryland. These are partially offset by higher O&M at PECO and BGE related to a return to normal storing costs after a calmer 2016, as well as higher depreciation and amortization driven by capital expenditures. At Exelon Generation, the year-over-year decrease is primarily driven by the impact of hedging into lower energy prices, partially offset by revenues from the New York and Illinois ZEC programs as well as the new Texas CCGTs coming online this summer. More detail on the year-over-year drivers by operating company can be found on the appendix starting on slide 55. On slide 10, let's turn to our updated multi-year forecast, and we'll cover 2017 to 2020 and provide a refresh of what we shared with you at the Analyst Day. For your convenience, in the appendix, we show these updated numbers side-by-side against the Analyst Day numbers. We'll invest more than $20 billion into our utilities to the benefit of our customers over the next four years, which is a slight increase since Analyst Day. Upside comes from the Future Energy Jobs Bill in Illinois, which will allow ComEd to grow rate base and earn a fair rate of return on energy efficiency investments. We now project rate base growth of 6.5% through 2020. On slide 11, of the $9 billion of rate base growth expected through 2020, approximately 75% is covered under either formula rates or other similar types of mechanisms. These timely recovery mechanisms allow us to make additional investments on the behalf of our customers while supporting our ability to earn our allowed ROE. Where we do not have mechanisms, we will continue to work with stakeholders to enact and implement these types of tools. I should also note that following the passage of the Illinois legislation, more than 70% of our rate base is decoupled. On slide 12, we showed the trailing 12-month blended transmission-distribution earned book ROE at each of the PHI utilities relative to their allowed ROEs. ROEs at PHI have improved modestly, but there's still much work to be done. Legacy Exelon utilities had a strong 2016, earning 10.5% as a group, helped by favorable weather and lower-than-normal storm activity. On a weather-normalized basis, the earned returns or ROEs would be closer to 10.1%. Improving the earned ROEs at PHI and sustaining a strong performance of the legacy Exelon utilities will be important to meeting our overall utility earnings growth targets. Going forward, we will provide a slide on a quarterly basis to keep you updated on the progress we're making from an earned returns perspective. On slide 13, we have an update on our current rate cases that are still in progress. Since our last update, we have completed two of the pending rate cases, the Pepco Maryland case was decided in November and we received a $52.5 million revenue increase. In addition, the ComEd annual formula rate filing was settled in December with an increase of $127 million related to approximately $2.4 billion in capital investments made in 2015. Those investments which includes $663 million for smart grid-related work has helped strengthen and modernize the electric system. We still have four pending rate cases at Pepco and Delmarva, combined we're asking for $216 million in revenues, which reflects recovery on multiple years of smart meter and other capital investments that have been made to improve the reliability of the grid across these jurisdictions. We expect the final ruling on the Delmarva Maryland case in mid-February, with the remaining cases being completed over the summer. More details on the rate cases can be found on slide 61 through 66 in the appendix. Consistent with our previous discussions, we expect to file rate cases in each of the PHI jurisdictions again in 2017, as we continue to close the gap between allowed and earned ROEs. Slide 14 provides an update on our outlook for utility EPS. The bars are largely the same as in Analyst Day, albeit $0.05 higher in 2017 and 2020. The increase in 2017 is due to continued cost management efforts; and the increase in 2020 is due to ComEd ROEs and efficiency-related investments. With a higher 2017 starting point, we now project strong 6% to 8% utility EPS growth through 2020. Turning to slide 15, we've modified our gross margin disclosures for ExGen. We now include a new line that carves out capacity and ZEC revenues. ZEC revenues are the payments Exelon receives in New York and Illinois for the beneficial environmental attributes of our nuclear plants. The purpose of this new line item is to clearly call out the portion of our gross margin that is more contracted in nature. As a result of including ZEC revenues from New York and Illinois, the FitzPatrick acquisition and the reserved – reversal of the shutdown decisions of Quad Cities and Clinton, total gross margin increased by $650 million, $1.05 billion and $1.1 billion in 2017, 2018 and 2019 respectively. Almost all the gross margin changes relate to the fleet updates with changes in power prices, adding $50 million in 2018 and costing us $50 million in 2019. Turning to slide 16, on our last earnings call, we announced we were reducing O&M by $100 million in 2018 and $125 million in 2019 at ExGen, adding to the $400 million of savings we've already taken out of the business. The baseline O&M outlook remains the same from last quarter, although the total O&M cost outlook has increased with the addition of the FitzPatrick, Quad Cities, and Clinton power stations which we break out on the slides for your reference. Our baseline capital spend is decreasing through 2020, driven by the proactive investments we've made in our nuclear fleet over the years. These investments have resulted in best-in-class performance and reduced risks for significant unplanned capital spend in the future. On slide 40, we provide greater detail on these investments and the impact they have had on the nuclear fleet since 2010. We continue to run an efficient organization, and we'll always look for ways to reduce costs and run the fleet more cost effectively while maintaining the highest standards for safety and reliability. Turning to slide 17, ExGen will generate nearly $7 billion of free cash flow through 2020, which is more free cash flow for that time period than what was included in our Analyst Day disclosure. This is primarily driven by the incremental cash associated with the New York and Illinois ZEC programs, partially offset by the impacts of lower power prices in the outer years. As we've said before, we will use ExGen's free cash flow to fund utility investment and pay down over $3 billion of debt through 2020. Turning to slide 18, we remain committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet and our investment-grade credit rating. We are forecasting to be at 3.3 times debt-to-EBITDA at ExGen by the end of 2017 and have a clear path to our long-term target of 3 times debt-to-EBITDA. As we've said before, we will look to retire holding company debt once we've reached the 3 times target at ExGen. From a recourse perspective, we are already below the 3 times debt-to-EBITDA level at 2.7 times, as shown here on the slide. This ratio will continue to decline as well with the paydown of debt to reach our consolidated 3 times target. The health of our ExGen balance sheet is strong and is continuing to improve. Before I turn the call over to Chris, I'd like to spend a few minutes on the potential impacts of tax reform legislation of Exelon, which has been a topic of discussion since the election. Research reports and our peers who have already reported earnings have discussed the impacts to the sector and their businesses. From a policy perspective, we think simplifying the tax code and lowering rates is the right objective. We are actively working with our partners at EEI and NEI and on our own to help inform the ultimate tax design. No legislation has been introduced at this time, so no details on exactly what will be included or how it will be => included is available beyond the short description of the Trump plan or the House blueprint. In fact, just last week, Senate Finance Committee Chairman Hatch said he's not planning on using the House legislation as a starting point. So the Senate will have its own bill, and there's no proposal for that bill at this time. And President Trump's economic team has stated that they will have their own views on tax reform once they're in place. At this time, there's no way to know what a tax reform package will look like or how long it will take to advance, which leads us to the mindset that is premature to quantify how tax reform will impact Exelon's financial outlook. We run a wide range of scenarios to understand the high-level impacts of common themes in the House and Trump plans. The House blueprint, excluding order adjustment provisions, will be neutral for our utilities, neutral to positive at the GenCo, and negative at the holding company due to the elimination of all interest deductibility. Order adjustment will be an additional negative at ExGen due to the importation of nuclear fuel, and at that the utilities would raise the cost of imported T&D capital equipment that goes in the rate base. We've seen significant opposition to both the border adjustment and elimination of interest expense deductibility recently, leaving the fate of these provisions unclear. To the extent the Trump campaign becomes the basis of legislation and the election is made to take interest deductibility rather than immediately expense capital additions, it could be meaningfully positive to Exelon's earnings. We see a long path until tax policy has clarity. We'll continue to advocate for the best interest of our customers and shareholders as legislation is developed. With that, I'll now turn the call back to Chris for his closing remarks.
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
Thanks, Jack. This next slide should look familiar to you at this point. This is Exelon's value proposition, and we are not wavering from these commitments. Strong utility growth, we expect to grow the rate base at 2.5% annually through 2020 – at 6.5%. Dan caught that one right away, 6.5% annually through 2020, which converts to EPS growth off our 2017 midpoint of 6% to 8% a year. We will continue to look for opportunities to invest in reliability and customer service. ExGen is expected to generate nearly $7 billion of free cash flow through 2020, which is better than we had budgeted at the Analyst Day. We will use this free cash flow primarily to invest in the utilities, pay down over $3 billion of debt over the next years. And we will continue to optimize the value of ExGen through best-in-class operating like we saw in 2016, capturing the benefits of our gen-to-load matching strategy, and fair compensation for our clean energy assets, similar to what we've accomplished in Illinois and New York. We remain focused on the balance sheet and are comfortably exceeding our credit metrics targets over the planning horizon. And our capital allocation priorities will remain the same, regulated utility growth, dividend growth, and debt reduction. The leadership team firmly believes we can deliver on these commitments to our shareholders. Our executive compensation is directly tied to these goals, with the long-term components driven by hitting the multi-year earnings targets at the utilities which ensures we grow this business as we've committed to you. Meeting our targets improvements in earned ROEs at the utilities, which ensure we turn around the performance of the PHI utilities and maintain a strong investment grade credit metrics, which ensures the financial health of the business, no matter what the commodity price backdrop is. Finally, our long-term compensation will be adjusted point per point with the three-year performance relative to the UTY, meaning that we are directly aligned with the long-term shareholders. I'm proud of everything that this team has accomplished in 2016 and very excited about the plan we have in place for the future. So, with that, Stephanie, we can open it up for questions.
Operator:
Our first question comes from the line of Greg Gordon with Evercore.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Thanks. Just a couple of quick questions as you guys were pretty thorough. So, can you give us an update on where you were on some of the tactical decisions you've made to sell down or exit from certain businesses, both the sell-down of the renewables business and the process on Mystic?
Jonathan W. Thayer - Exelon Corp.:
Greg, it's Jack. I'll take that. So, I'll start with the renewables. I think it's been widely reported that that we've been in the markets talking about a joint venture for our renewables business, and that process is going well. We want to maintain a stake in that business as it's important to our overall participation in the energy complex. We do have a significant amount of project-level debt on those projects. So there is a thinner equity layer on top of that. So the proceeds, while meaningful, will be used for debt reduction. We'd expect that to be a very positive event for the company. With respect to the Mystic process, that process continues to be underway. We've had broad interest in those assets as they play a key role in that needful market in Downtown Boston. We continue to work with the various stakeholders to draw it to a conclusion. And we look forward to that having a favorable outcome as well here.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Jack, can you give us any insight as to why it's taken longer than maybe we had initially expected when we – when you first articulated a desire to potentially sell those assets, it was at the EEI last year. And there was the potential for sort of an event early in the first quarter, and we still haven't seen that. And then, even if you were to get a deal tomorrow, given the lack of a quorum at the FERC, what are we looking at in terms of realistic timing to actually come to a closing of a transaction there?
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
So, if we did openly talk about it after it had been leaked and figured we get that out there, but there is no fire sale here. We need to take our time and go through the process and make sure we obtain the right value for us and for all involved in it, so working through it, and we'll keep you informed when we're at a closure.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Okay. But assuming you got a price that was accretive to what you think the implied value is today for ExGen, that would accelerate the deleveraging that you're talking about here on slide 18 in the handout, right?
Jonathan W. Thayer - Exelon Corp.:
That's correct, Greg.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Okay. Fantastic. And the growth rate target for the utility now, that's just clearly a function of having a higher base in 2017, you're $0.05 higher in 2020. So, the headline number is not a reduction in the expectations, it's just algebra, right?
Jonathan W. Thayer - Exelon Corp.:
That's correct. And you'll know with the passage of Illinois legislation and the energy efficiency programs, the solar programs we added to CapEx at ComEd, rather substantively throughout the curve. I think it's also important to note, we have a pretty conservative policy on only putting into our CapEx forecast the utilities, plants that are fully formed for capital investment. So, as time progresses and as we see opportunities to invest in the behalf of our customer, there are the opportunities for that rate base and capital budget to grow in those outer periods.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Right. I have more questions, but I'll go back in the queue. Thanks.
Jonathan W. Thayer - Exelon Corp.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Jonathan Arnold with Deutsche Bank.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Yeah. Good morning, guys.
Jonathan W. Thayer - Exelon Corp.:
Good morning.
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
Good morning.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Can I ask, Jack, I noticed you mentioned that the – that debt reduction target on slide 17 is now ExGen and HoldCo, and I think before it was just ExGen, so just to confirm that – if that is the case. And secondly, how much of the $3 billion roughly is it going to take to get to the 3x debt-to-EBITDA target? So, how much is therefore left over for HoldCo on the current plan?
Jonathan W. Thayer - Exelon Corp.:
So, Jonathan your first comment is correct. We previously were talking about retiring debt at the GenCo, now we see the opportunity once we achieved 3 times debt-to-EBITDA to retire debt at the holding company. With respect to the debt retired – we'll retire at the holding company, we have a $900 million maturity in 2020, where I think you could see us potentially retire debt or some component of debt, and we're looking at opportunities with use of proceeds from a variety of strategic activities that we have ongoing to address the roughly $600 million of ExCorp that's not tied to the mandatory convertibles reissuance of $1.15 billion in 2017.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
What's roughly the timing that you see in this kind of – through 2020 outlook that you'd get to 3x on the GenCo absent an asset sale?
Jonathan W. Thayer - Exelon Corp.:
I think it's – I think – I think we can get there through cash generation I think over the next, say, two to three years. And then, we can – as we get out in the 2019, 2020, we can work against the holding company.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. Great. Thank you. And then, if I could ask one other thing on – can you give us any sort of thoughts around potential for other states to consider New York and Illinois style nuclear measures?
Joseph Dominguez - Exelon Corp.:
Jonathan, this is Joe Dominguez. Right now, active discussions are occurring in Connecticut which is probably the most advanced. We believe those discussions will be started in Ohio, already have been relatively shortly in New Jersey and in Pennsylvania. I think all of the states, as Chris indicated before, states that understand the value of the nuclear plants and want to keep these plants operational, and so the level of discussion is at different stages, some with fully formed legislation that's already moving through committee, that's the case in Connecticut, and stakeholder average (32:16).
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay, great. That's it, thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Steve Fleishman with Wolfe.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Hi, good morning. Can you hear me okay?
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
Yes, we hear you fine, Steve.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Great. Just a couple of nuclear questions. First, could you give a sense on the appeal process on the ZECs, I guess, in New York, and when we should know from the court kind of roughly either way on the ruling both, I guess, your motion to dismiss and then an actual ruling?
Joseph Dominguez - Exelon Corp.:
So in the Federal Court action in New York, as you noted, a motion to dismiss has been filed. That's been fully briefed. I know a number of you have asked for the briefing packages, and those are available to anybody who would like them. We feel very strongly about our case and we believe it should be dismissed on that motion. But if it proceeds to trial, that trial will occur through to the balance of the second quarter, and we would expect a decision sometime this summer.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. And then just more broadly on nuclear, there's been talk of the Trump administration wanting to do something for nuclear. Is there any better visibility on what they might be looking at or things that you might be suggesting?
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
There hasn't been any concrete conversations, just a preliminary recognition of what's going on in the marketplace and the need to maintain the diverse power sources, looking at the economics, local economics of them and the benefit to the customer. So just starting, a lot more dialogue will happen with NEI and the administration, and we're staying involved with NEI and also with our own folks interfacing with the administration.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay, one separate question on tax reform. I know you don't want to get into specifics, but just if we think about your company and the issues you care most about getting fixed or adjusted, are there any particular ones that you're most focused on addressing of the different factors that you mentioned?
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
Yes, we think Jack did a good job framing up why it's really premature for us to get point to point. I spent a lot of time on my own and with the EEI leadership in DC to look at this effect on utilities, utility customers, and what has happened in 1986 tax bill. So there are certain things in the regulated space that create a difference. I'm sure a lot of industries are trying to say they're different. But surely back in 1986, the insurance industry and the utility industry, the regulated utility industry was recognized as an exemption or a different methodology. So that kind of conversation is happening within the process. It's not right to have a debate across the table until we have a bill, but coalescing under Tom Kuhn's leadership and the EEI executive leadership and board, we're working through those issues. Everybody is for a lower corporate tax rate. That's an easy one. Jack talked about the probability of the blueprint staying the way it is now versus after the sausage is made. It's something we'll just have to stay engaged and follow. But you reduce an interest deduction from a utility, and that automatically goes on to the customer, and we've got to make sure it's not an unintended tax increase for the customer and we just have to work through those details.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Great, thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with UBS.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Hey, good morning.
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
Good morning.
Jonathan W. Thayer - Exelon Corp.:
Good morning.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Hey, maybe quickly following up on the last one here with Steve, can you elaborate a little bit on what the read-through would be from the litigation in New York vis-à-vis Illinois? Would there be an immediate impact, or how are you thinking about this perhaps across the various ways it could play out? And I've got a follow-up back.
Joseph Dominguez - Exelon Corp.:
Julien, this is Joe. The programs in New York and Illinois are very similar. They're both based on paying for the environmental attribute based on the social cost of carbon. And so the read-through is that when we are successful in New York, we think it will be a very helpful precedent to challenge the Illinois legislation.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Got it, excellent. And then just following up here on Greg's earlier question, just to establish a little bit of a baseline, how are you thinking about your portfolio evolution given the need to backstop the broader retail business? Are basically all combined cycles, broadly taking here, something that could be looked at? And then also at the same time, how are you thinking about the expansion of the retail business? Obviously, there have been some headlines out there on that as well.
Joseph Nigro - Exelon Corp.:
Julien, good morning. It's Joe Nigro. Broadly, we look at our asset portfolio on an annual basis and we look across our nuclear fleet through to our fossil and renewable fleet. And strategically, you've seen some of the assets that we've divested through time here, and I will tell you it hasn't had a material impact on managing our retail portfolios, given that we carry a lot of what I would call optionality in our portfolio with the generation assets. And then additionally, when we need to, we will go to market to augment with additional products. So we're very comfortable where we are and we continue to strategically look at our portfolio. And if the market is willing to pay for something maybe more than we have value on, then we'll take that into account, make the decisions necessary recognizing that we do need to continue to manage our business. And I'm sorry, the question on...
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
Retail growth.
Joseph Nigro - Exelon Corp.:
Retail growth, we're now – our C&I business is, as Jack mentioned or Chris mentioned in the script, we're about 25% of the market share in C&I. Our margins remained stable in that $2 to $4 origination range, and we continue to monitor that very closely. You heard what our renewal rates are and our win rates are, and they're in line with what we've laid out in the Analyst Day, and we're very comfortable with the plan that we have in place as we move through 2017. We'll continue to monitor that, but right now, we're very happy with where we are.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
And you wouldn't necessarily take this out a little further, acquisitive expansions in addition to organic, and maybe that's a good kind of segue into thinking about – what kinds of targets are you thinking about on a volumetric basis for the volumes in aggregate as we move through time?
Joseph Nigro - Exelon Corp.:
We've given you the volumes, and I think previously – and we rolled them out again at the EEI, and we're very comfortable with where we are on the volume scale. I would tell you, you continue to see consolidation in the retail market, you see some generation entrance that have bought entities, existing entities, not really creating their own retail platform, so there's really no change there. As you know, we've bought a few in the last few years, and we see the consolidation. We'll continue to hunt for those if the opportunity is right, and we see value and it fits our portfolio in what we're trying to achieve with the customer. And we'll remain disciplined with that. With our acquisition a few years ago of Integrys, and recently, last year with ConEd, we've been very happy with that outcome and the way they've integrated into our portfolio, and we'll continue to look for those type of opportunities.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Thank you, gentlemen.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Michael Weinstein with Credit Suisse.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Hi. Good morning.
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
Good morning, Michael.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
I was wondering if you could comment a little bit on the impact or the impacts of lower load growth and capacity performance in the PJM, upcoming PJM capacity auction. And separately, FERC recently rejected the MISO proposal for a competitive retail solution in certain zones. One of the criticisms, I think, FERC had in the rejection was that it was not broad enough throughout MISO. I'm just wondering if there's any potential for some kind of broader forward auction system throughout the entire Midwest ISO.
Joseph Nigro - Exelon Corp.:
Yeah. Good morning, Michael. It's Joe Nigro. I'll take the first question on PJM, and then I'll hand it off up to Joe Dominguez, and he can talk a little bit about the MISO question. From a PJM perspective, there is a lot of moving pieces, the load came in, as was previously announced, down about 3.5 gigawatts or 2%. So, that wasn't unexpected. We cleared about 27 gigawatts of non-CP supply last year or 16% of what cleared, and as you mentioned, that will be 100% CP this year. that's obviously a positive change when you think about price. There were some movement in the import capabilities. We saw it shrink some into the ComEd zone. And we saw it increased slightly into eastern Mass., so that has an offsetting effect in those two areas. I guess the big thing is it remains around the two biggest variables which are the bidding behavior, and as you know, year-over-year, the energy rents are down, given how low the prices were on coal last year, and then additionally, what the new build is. And we continue to struggle to see how the economics of that new build works, given how marginal it is at best with where the market is on a forward basis. So, putting that all together, there's a lot of moving pieces where our long-standing policy is really not to try to forecast that, but there's a lot of puts and takes that we're evaluating as we go through this.
Joseph Dominguez - Exelon Corp.:
And Michael, this is Joe Dominguez, the short answer to your question is, no, I don't see a likelihood that we will see, as a result of this FERC order, an expansion of the proposals for what was effectively Southern Illinois and Michigan across all – with MISO. I could go into a little bit more detail but the answer is no.
Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Okay. Thank you very much, guys.
Operator:
At this time, we have reached the allotted time for questions. Our final question will come from Shahriar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Partners:
Good morning, guys.
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
Good morning, Shahriar.
Jonathan W. Thayer - Exelon Corp.:
Good morning, Shahriar.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Partners:
Just real quick on the $0.32 that you're now guiding on ZECs and FitzPatrick, can you – are you embedding any sort of synergies of owning Nine Mile and FitzPatrick within the same portfolio, or you're still kind of looking at this opportunity?
Jonathan W. Thayer - Exelon Corp.:
We're still looking at the opportunity, we're in the process of integrating that plans and that's going quite well. We've got to close the acquisition in March. Obviously, given its proximity to our Nine Mile units, we anticipate that there may be opportunities as we get in there and optimize the operations.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Partners:
Okay. Got it. And then, Joe, can you just real quick handicap Pennsylvania, maybe from a potential timing or when we can see something? Are we looking at an adjustment to the RPS to include the nuclear, or is it more of a function of sort of a similar ZEC-type program?
Joseph Dominguez - Exelon Corp.:
I think historically what we've done is we've begun the discussion, and the first stage of the discussion is establishing a recognition that nuclear is the lowest cost and most reliable zero-carbon option for our customers, that's where we are in Pennsylvania. The next stage, I think we'll start getting into different solution sets, and you've identified a few, right. So, you could look at something that's similar to the ZEC programs that have been adopted. You can include nuclear as a qualifying resources and RPSs. And it's way too early for me to handicap where that discussion is going to go. There are a lot of different stakeholders. What's important to us is syncing effectively the first concept, which is that nuclear needs to be treated on a level playing field with other non-emitting resources. That will be the first objective in having that discussion. And then, I think, I can ask, as we move through this and in subsequent calls, we could talk about a bit more about how we handicap the options and outcomes.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Partners:
Terrific, that's all I have. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
At this time, I would like to turn it back over to Chris Crane for closing remarks.
Christopher M. Crane - Exelon Corp.:
Thanks, everybody, again for joining. And hopefully, we got all your questions. If not, then get a hold of Dan and his group, and we'll fill in any blanks. It was, as I said, a phenomenal year in 2016, and we're looking forward to building on that in 2017. Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. This concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good morning. My name is Brandi, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Exelon Corporation Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]
I would now like to turn the conference to Dan Eggers, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Daniel Eggers:
Thank you, Brandi. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our third quarter 2016 earnings call.
Leading today's call are Chris Crane, Exelon's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Jack Thayer, Exelon's Chief Financial Officer. They're joined by the other members of Exelon's senior management team, who will be available to answer your questions following our prepared remarks. We issued our earnings release this morning along with the presentation, both of which can be found in the Investor Relations section of Exelon's website. The earnings release and other matters, which we discuss during today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ from our forward-looking statements based on factors and assumptions discussed in today's material, comments made during this call and in the Risk Factors section of the earnings release and 10-Q, which we expect to file later today. Please refer to today's 8-K or the 10-Q and Exelon's other filings for a discussion of factors that may cause results to differ from management's projections, forecasts and expectations. Today's presentation also includes references to adjusted operating earnings and other non-GAAP measures. Please refer to the information contained in the appendix of our presentation and our earnings release for a reconciliation between the non-GAAP measures to the nearest equivalent GAAP measures. We've scheduled 45 minutes for today's call. I'll now turn the call over to Chris Crane, Exelon's CEO.
Christopher Crane:
Thanks, Dan, and good morning to all of you. We appreciate your time and interest in Exelon and joining the call today.
We hosted our Analyst Day in August, and you have a lot of information that we passed on to understand the business and our value proposition. With that fresh in your mind, today's call will focus on the third quarter results, some business updates, including actions we are taking with recent power weaknesses. We had a great third quarter across our utilities Constellation and our generating fleet. Our GAAP basis -- on a GAAP basis, we earned $0.53 versus $0.69 last year quarter-over-quarter. On the operating basis, we earned $0.91 a share, up from last year's $0.83 per share and well above our guidance range of $0.65 to $0.75 per share. Jack is going to cover the details on earnings drivers, but let me make a few observations. At the utilities, the hot summer weather was a big help, with revenues up on higher volumes of electricity sold and lower cost with less storm activity across the system. The excellent reliability we provided to our customers over a hot summer reinforces the benefits of our capital investment programs. ExGen had a great operational quarter, with the nuclear fleet producing more power ever in a quarter. Finally, Constellation really hit a sweet spot in the third quarter. The sustained hot weather enabled us to sell high volumes of electricity to customers while limited price volatility brought the cost to serve the customers down, allowing us to profit on both volumes and margins. The continued success at Constellation in the third quarter reinforces the value of our gen to load matching strategy. So if you look at Slide 6, as we talk about best-in-class operation, at the Analyst Day, we emphasized best-in-class operation across all our businesses, which we see as the ticket of entry at the utilities and economic imperative at the Generation business. And I'm happy to report that the third quarter was operationally strong. On our color block charts highlighted operating performance and customer satisfaction for the utilities, legacy Exelon utilities remain almost entirely first quartile. I'm proud of our customer satisfaction results, but am disappointed with our OSHA results, and we are taking corrective actions and should get these numbers back to first quartile shortly. At PHI, we are encouraged by the process we're making. Although some of this success has been helped by good weather and limited storm activity, we still have a long way to go to meet the reliability commitments we've made, but we are working hard to provide the service our customers deserve. I mentioned already but the nuclear team had a very good quarter, with a capacity factor of 96.3% and no unplanned outage days even with the summer's sustained heat. For the year-to-date, the nuclear capacity factor is at 94.8%. Constellation also had a great quarter, completing the acquisition of ConEd Solutions and beginning that integration. We continue to see a robust renewable rate, with margins in contract durations holding at levels we discussed at the Analyst Day. So I want to thank all of our employees for excellent operations over the quarter and professionalism in what was a very hot summer with fantastic results. On the regulatory team side, at the utilities are very busy as we work through a full load of rate cases at PHI, in particular. We've completed one rate case at PHI. The New Jersey BPU unanimously approved the ACE rate case settlement in August, yielding a good outcome. It brought needed benefits to the New Jersey customers months earlier than we would have litigated the case. We appreciate the efforts of all the parties in New Jersey in making this happen. We are encouraged by the progress that we are making so far, but we're also aware that improving operations and returns at PHI will take time. These are the first sets of rate cases. We plan to refile at each PHI utility again in 2017. We -- it will take 2 cycles to, what we believe, align our revenues with the significant capital being deployed to benefit our customers, improve reliability and help the environment overall. Talking about our key priorities, for us, is finding economically sustainable paths for our financially challenged nuclear plants. We're currently on very different paths but expect clarity this quarter in New York and also Illinois. In New York, we're making progress on finalizing the contracts with NYSERDA and expect to have them signed for all 3 plants in November. This aligns with the expected approval from New York PSC on the acquisition from the FitzPatrick plant. We expect the CES from GINNA Nine Mile I and II to add approximately $0.08 to $0.10 of EPS and expect FitzPatrick to add another $0.02 to $0.08 per share a year, depending on the refuel outage schedules. As expected, a group of independent power producers filed a challenge in federal court. The lawsuit does not request a stay or an expedited trial, and we continue to believe that the CES design is sound, and that it will withstand any legal challenge. In Illinois, we continue to work with a wide group of parties on a comprehensive energy package that would preserve the Clinton and Quad Cities stations operating rights. It will advance the utility investment aimed at energy efficiency and reliability and will support further growth in renewable energy production in Illinois. The time line is short for the resolution, with 2 windows during a 6-day veto session in November and the beginning of December. We remain hopeful that we can reach a constructive solution that truly is of best interest for our state and our fellow Illinois citizens. But absent of the action during the upcoming veto session, both facilities will close. We are moving forward with the retirement of the plants. We have already notified PJM of our intent to retire Quad Cities and will inform MISO in the beginning of December if the legislation does not pass. A few years ago, we asked you to wait a while we worked through the process in Illinois, and we have appreciated your patience. We are now very close to the ultimate resolution in both Illinois and New York. So with that, I'll turn the call over to Jack, and he will walk you through the numbers.
Jonathan Thayer:
Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone. My remarks today will cover our third quarter and year-to-date results, our updated 2016 guidance range, progress on our current rate cases and our gross margin disclosures.
Starting on Slide 9. As Chris stated, we had a very strong quarter financially and operationally across the company. For the third quarter, we delivered adjusted non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.91 per share, exceeding our guidance range of $0.65 to $0.75 per share. Exelon utilities delivered a great quarter, with a combined $0.53 per share of operating earnings. This was driven by favorable weather at ComEd and PECO where cooling degree days were 39% and 37% above normal, respectively, as well as lower O&M expense versus planned across all our utilities primarily due to lower-than-normal storm activity. Generation delivered $0.41 per share of operating earnings in the quarter. We have strong performance at our Constellation business, where our Generation to Load matching strategy continued to provide value and we benefited from a lower cost to serve our customers. On Slide 10, the $0.91 per share in the third quarter of this year was $0.08 per share better than the third quarter of 2015. Upside came from favorable weather across our service territories, the inclusion of PHI and higher distribution revenues at both ComEd and PECO due to increased capital investment and increased rates, respectively. This was partially offset by a decrease in earnings at ExGen, driven primarily by increased taxes due to the inability to use the domestic production activities deduction and lower capacity prices. On Slide 11, our year-to-date earnings of $2.24 per share are $0.11 per share higher relative to the same period last year, driven by performance at the utilities. The primary drivers are favorable weather, increased distribution revenues across all of our utilities due to higher rates and increased capital investment and the addition of PHI. ExGen is down $0.16 per share from this time last year due to increased decommissioning costs, increased taxes and share count differential. Turning to Slide 12, we are raising our full year guidance range from $2.40 per share to $2.70 per share to $2.55 per share to $2.75 per share, reflecting, in particular, the strong results that we've seen at ComEd and PECO year-to-date. Turning to Slide 13, we've laid out the schedule for the next 6 months of activity in all our current rate case proceedings across Exelon utilities. As you know, we filed distribution cases in all of PHI's jurisdictions and expect decisions spread throughout the third quarter of next year, providing needed revenue relief as we continue to make significant investments on behalf of our customers. Our investments in our utilities are needed to improve the customer experience and create value for customers. As Chris mentioned, in August, the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities approved the settlement authorizing Atlantic City Electric to increase its electric distribution rate by $45 million. The new rates went into effect immediately, which was 7 months earlier than expected. This really recognizes Atlantic City Electric's commitment to enhancing its energy infrastructure. Over the past 5 years, Atlantic City Electric has spent approximately $716 million in energy system upgrades to benefit its customers. The settlement is a good start, but there's more work to be done in the other jurisdictions. We still have rate cases outstanding at the other PHI utilities. In these cases, we're asking for $326 million in revenue requirement increases. These increases reflect recovery on multiple years of smart meter and other capital investments meant to improve the reliability of the grid across all the PHI jurisdictions. We're expecting the Pepco Maryland decision in mid-November, followed by Delmarva Maryland in February. In addition, ComEd made its annual formula rate filing with the Illinois Commerce Commission in the second quarter of this year, with the decision expected in December. ComEd requested a revenue requirement increase of $132 million related to approximately $2.4 billion in capital investments made in 2015. These investments, which include $663 million for smart grid-related work, have strengthened and modernized the electric system. More details in the rate cases can be found on Slides 28 through 33 in the appendix. Slide 14 provides our third quarter gross margin update, including our 2019 disclosures. We're including the 2019 numbers a couple of weeks earlier than our normal course of EDI as we wanted to package together some interrelated updates for you today. Our total gross margin uses September 30 curves and does not include the impacts of the CES program in New York or the purchase of FitzPatrick. But we have included these impacts below the lines to provide a full picture for 2017 through 2019, and we anticipate formally including both of them at our fourth quarter call. 2016 total gross margin increased $50 million during the third quarter, lifted by strong performance primarily at Constellation. We're highly hedged for the rest of this year and remain well balanced on our Generation to Load matching strategy. Total gross margin decreased from the second quarter to the third quarter by $100 million in 2017 and $250 million in 2018. The decline is driven by lower power prices on the unhedged portion of our output. We have seen power prices at NiHub and West Hub for these years move higher since the end of September, with 2017 increasing approximately $0.50 to $0.75 per megawatt hour, respectively. 2018 prices have increased approximately $0.20 to $0.50 per megawatt hour, respectively, and as a result, total gross margin on our unhedged generation has recovered since 9/30 by $50 million. At the end of the quarter, our hedge position was approximately 7% to 10% behind ratable in 2017 and 4% to 6% behind ratable in 2018 when considering cross-commodity hedges and reflecting our more positive fundamental view on the power markets. The majority of our link remains concentrated in the Midwest to align with our view of power market upside at NiHub. Total gross margins for 2019 is $6.8 billion, which is $450 million less than in 2018. The majority of the decline from 2018 is due to $175 million in lower capacity revenues, which we provided at Analyst Day, $125 million from a full year of retirement for Quad Cities and $200 million from a roll-off of in-the-money hedges versus 2018. We see multiple reasons why we'd expect a better realized power price environment than what's captured in these numbers. First, forwards beyond 2017 and especially beyond 2018 reflect a highly illiquid market with limited real price discovery. Liquidity will improve as we get closer to the delivery year, and that will help prices. In addition, our work on power market shows too many plants continuing to operate even though they're not economically viable. These plants will need to close, and like we've done with certain of our fossil plants and our planned nuclear retirements. Second, our Generation to Load matching strategy and our portfolio management team at Constellation have a proven ability to extract value out of various market conditions. Our Constellation business is set up to profit in periods of extremes. This summer, we captured better margins since our contracts are priced using forward summer market volatility. And when we don't see that volatility, such as this summer, we capture additional value. We saw the same thing during the polar vortex, a period with extremes but in the opposite direction. Our gross margin projections on this page do not anticipate these events repeating and assume normal weather, leaving the -- an opportunity for additional upside. And finally, the CES program in New York and the acquisition of FitzPatrick will add $500 million in gross margin in 2019 and annual EPS contributions of $0.10 to $0.18 per year starting -- annually starting next year. Turning to Slide 15. Even though we don't believe this market will be a reality, we are acting as if it will. We're reducing expected O&M expenditures by $100 million in 2018 and $125 million in 2019 at ExGen relative to what we showed you at Analyst Day, adding to the $400 million of savings we've already taken out of the business. We are finding additional savings as we focus our operations and reduce development efforts at Generation as we close out the growth CapEx program in 2017. We run an efficient organization, but we need to look for ways to reduce cost beyond these reductions. Our focus on -- our focus at ExGen remains on maximizing our cash generation to meet our commitments of funding utility equity needs and debt reduction. These efforts will help keep us on track. Finally, turning to Slide 16, our sources and uses slide. We expect adjusted cash flow from operations of $6.85 billion in 2016. In September, the U.S. Tax Court ruled against us on a like-kind exchange issue related to our sale of fossil generation in 1999. The outcome on numerics was not unexpected. We were fully reserved for the underlying claim. However, we do not agree with the decision and particularly disagree with the decision to issue penalties, which we did not think was likely or warranted. The law is very clear that we were entitled to rely upon the opinion of legal counsel. We believe the court came to an erroneous conclusion, and we expect to appeal the decision early next year. We plan to issue approximately $1 billion of long-term debt to support the payment to the IRS. I'll now turn the call back to Chris for his closing remarks.
Christopher Crane:
Thanks, Jack. We do appreciate the time. And we've had a lot to be proud about at the company, but we're not happy with the outlook that we see at ExGen.
As Jack talked, we're taking actions. The limited liquidity in the forwards beyond 2017 and the true lack of discipline by uneconomic generators are distorting the market. That said, we're not just going to sit around and wait on the power markets to recover. As we said, we're taking further actions to control our future at ExGen, aggressively managing our cost across -- or even against these forwards, cutting $100 million in cost from 2018 and $125 million from 2019 on top of the $400 million we've already cut across the business. And we're pursuing the compensation for the 0-carbon attributes of our plants, as we've done in New York. We are optimizing the fleet. All of this brings us back to the value proposition. We're targeting the best-in-class utility EPS growth of 7% to 9% through 2020. The strong free cash flow at ExGen will provide the incremental equity needs at the utilities as we focus on debt reduction at the ExGen. We're focused on optimizing the value of our ExGen business by seeking the fair compensation for the carbon pre-generation fleet and closing uneconomic plants. We will be opportunistically -- that's a good word, to selling assets where it makes sense to accelerate our debt reduction plans and maximize value through the gen-to-load matching strategy, which had another big quarter. We'll continue to focus on sustaining strong investment-grade credit metrics, growing our dividend in a consistent visible manner. And I want to thank you for your interest, and now we're ready to take questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And our first question is from Greg Gordon with Evercore ISI.
Greg Gordon:
So looking at the disclosures on the utilities, you raised your guidance range by $0.05 at each of the 2 utilities, but ExGen also had a -- is $50 million better on a gross-margin basis. I know you usually think about this in sort of rounding terms, and that's less than $0.05, but as you think about Q4, where are you -- where do you think you are inside the ExGen guidance range, assuming normal operations for the rest of the year?
Jonathan Thayer:
Greg, I'd say we're feeling very good on the back of a very strong performance within the Constellation business year-to-date. There are some timing elements that keep us in that same guidance range. Obviously, the fourth quarter is an important one for that business, and we'll be tracking it closely. But I'd say we feel good about how we're trending, and that's reflected in our comfort in taking the guidance up across the company.
Greg Gordon:
When I look at the delta from '18 to '19 in terms of the headwind from capacity -- and a lot of this, you talked about at Analyst Day. Capacity, mark-to-market on power curves, but then the offsetting benefits of lower O&M, lower depreciation, lower taxes, it looks to me, based on the fully diluted share count, like that's about a $0.15 delta today based on current forward curves. Am I missing something or is that in the right ballpark?
Jonathan Thayer:
I mean, relatively speaking, I think that's -- you're in the right direction. I don't want to give 2019 guidance at this point, but that feels right.
Greg Gordon:
Okay. And then can you give us some sense of timing on the process for the Mystic plants and when we might get some visibility on price and timing to close?
Christopher Crane:
I don't think that there's been any statement on that.
Jonathan Thayer:
We acknowledged we're selling the plants. Beyond that, Greg, I don't think it's probably right for us to comment on the process.
Operator:
Our next question is from Jonathan Arnold with Deutsche Bank.
Jonathan Arnold:
Can I just ask about the -- you made comments about feeling good around how you're executing in Constellation. Any comments on trends in margins and renewals? And one thing we noticed was that the new business to go for 2019, $950 million, is down a little from what you had for 2018 this time last year, yet you've got ConEd Solutions in there, I would guess. So is that some pressure in what you've seen around margins or more conservatism? Or how should we think about those numbers?
Joseph Nigro:
Jonathan, it's Joe. We feel pretty -- we feel very strong we're going to be able to deliver on 2019. Part of the reason that number is down is because we've already executed more in that year than we would have at this point last year for 2018. So that's why you see a lower number. Our new business to go -- our new business in total -- or the business we're going to create in total between 2018 and 2019 is roughly the same amount, and we're comfortable that we're going to be able to meet these targets as we've done in the last 4 years. At your comment about margins and the renewal rates in retail, as I mentioned at Analyst Day, that market has remained stable. Our margins are right in line with what I talked about at Analyst Day. Our renewal rates remain strong. The acquisition of ComEd, although we've only had them for a brief period, is going well. We're very impressed with the way they run their operation, and we're integrating that into the Constellation business. So the retail business remains very stable, and we're happy where things are at this point and continue to monitor it.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. And then can I ask around the ExGen O&M guidance? Could you give us a little more insight into what's driving the incremental savings? And then, perhaps -- I mean, is this -- obviously, one of your nuclear competitors is seeing some cost pressures in that business. Can you talk about how -- what your sort of underlying expense profile might be, and how much you're having to cut in order to get to these net lower numbers?
Christopher Crane:
I'll let Jack fill in the details. On our nuclear fleet, overall, in the past 7 to 10 years, we have made significant capital investment to prepare the plants for their extended life. You can see our reliability numbers reflect the investment that's been made, so we do not see any significant increase in capital. Actually, we're seeing the decrease in capital, in maintenance capital, because of the massive improvements that we've made. On the O&M side, there's been significant focus, not only at Exelon but across the industry, with industry initiatives to try to find ways to take what were old processes that were put in place that may be much more efficiently executed with the same results on a much lower cost basis, and that's the initiative that the Nuclear Energy Institute is performing. I can't speak to other fleets, but I can tell you that we have a very strong focus on capital, a very strong focus on efficiency. And the last thing we would do is cut into safety or reliability, and that's been a clear focus of mine throughout my whole career, and it will continue to be. Run the plant safely, reliably and very efficiently.
Jonathan Thayer:
So Jonathan, just building on what Chris said, starting with that focus on safety and reliability. As you might imagine, when you contemplate a program that, say, is $400 million across the company and you're turning over many stones, you identify additional opportunities. And so among -- we've got almost more than 100 initiatives that we've been looking at, and each will contribute approximately from $1 million to several million dollars. But whether it's corporate efficiencies in organizational design, nuclear fuel savings, contractor costs, in-sourcing rates, nuclear site security, automation, NRC fees reductions, property taxes, organizational design and centralization such as within our engineering group, outage costs, automation, I mean it's just a long list of activities. And we do have good line of sight on these opportunities. And I think building on the processes that we've put in place to target cost and seek efficiencies, I think our hope is that we may, in fact, even find more than what we're sharing with you today.
Operator:
Our next question is from Steven Fleishman with Wolfe.
Steven Fleishman:
Yes, a couple of things. First, just on the new -- the New York ZECs. Could you just clarify kind of the thoughts on ZECs versus RECs? Because the IPPs that filed the appeal seem to kind of say there is a difference. So could you kind of clarify maybe where they're getting that wrong?
Christopher Crane:
Joe.
Joseph Dominguez:
Yes, it's Joe Dominguez, Steve. We don't think there is really a difference. The program was fashioned after the REC programs. The distinction is that plaintiffs who are trying to create New York are not real. But they face the political problem, of course, that if they describe the lawsuit as also challenging the renewable programs, they're going to have a good deal more opposition. But the programs function essentially identically. The ZEC program is based on the cost of keeping resources in the market just as the renewables credits are the cost of keeping resources in the market, paying for the environmental attributes, recognizing that these assets get both wholesale and market revenues as well as attribute payments. But from our perspective, they function pretty much the same way.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay. And then moving to Illinois, could -- just any more color. Are you feeling more optimistic about being able to get a legislative bill this veto session than, let's say, a month or 2 ago?
Christopher Crane:
I'll let Anne.
Anne Pramaggiore:
Okay. This is Anne Pramaggiore. We are -- I think what we're seeing right now is that there's a bit of an opening of a door. The legislature has a temporary budget in place, and Chicago public school funding is behind them. And so I think we see an opportunity in the veto session. We also think there's a lot of work to be done to get there. We've got to pull together a coalition to come in with an agree [ph] bill as much as possible, and we're in the process of putting that together now. But we do think that there's the potential that this would be entertained in the veto session.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay. And then, just lastly, in the context of what you said about the kind of power views and long-term liquidity. To the degree that, let's say, Illinois bill passes and it includes benefits for all types of generation, just -- doesn't that kind of continue on the kind of -- the potential inefficiencies of the markets and kind of keep some of the issues that are causing prices to be lower? So I guess, just how are you thinking about hedging and managing your portfolio against the fact that if -- the more of these you get done, the more Generation stays around?
Joseph Dominguez:
Steve, this is Joe Dominguez, and I'll turn it back it over to Joe Nigro in terms of managing the portfolio. Look. We've -- the market is what it is. Today, we have over 30 states with renewable portfolio standards that recognize the environmental contributions of virtually every resource in the market that does what our nuclear plants do. So we're seeking to get fair treatment. At the same time, from a policy perspective, we've been clear for many years now that we think the right move is to put a cost occlusion in the market. That is, in the case of climate, establish a price on requirement. And we're going to continue to pursue those things. But obviously, there have been a number of headwinds that have prevented those policies from being fully realized and fully recognizing the impact that carbon has on climate, as measured by the federal government. So we haven't seen programs that trade [ph] carbon up to the social cost of carbon. We're going to continue to work on those things. But the plans we have in New York and Illinois, we think of as preserving those units for the day where we have that best design in place. And we think that day is going to come eventually, but we need a bridge solution to keep the units that are important to our customers in place so that they're available once we do have a carbon signal in the market. And that's how we reconcile it. But we have to take this world as it comes to us, and the world currently isn't our most favorite design of putting a price on carbon in the market. We have these separate state programs, and it's important for our customers that these nuclear plants be preserved, and that's what's driving our initiatives. Joe?
Joseph Nigro:
Yes. And I would add, just from a market perspective, portfolio perspective, a couple of things. One is, on the market side, I think the illiquidity of the market is somewhat independent of what Joe is saying. I think it gets into the nature of market participants. As you're well aware, when you think about the financial institutions to start with that added liquidity in this marketplace in years past, we don't see nearly the depth of that. But what's interesting is the power markets have been illiquid for quite some time. But when you look at open interest just on the gas market, for example, we've seen a change there where it's very front-end loaded versus kind of the outer years. And I think what's important with that is -- and let me give you an example. When you look at the price change in the quarter in PJM, in particular, versus -- the end of June versus the end of September, you saw that the prices -- the price of gas in each of those years, when you include the basis prices weren't great, fell equally. Yet we dropped power prices more materially on the back end of the forward curve than we did in the nearby 2017, and that gets into some of the illiquidity in the market. As it relates to our portfolio, we take all these factors into account, both the things that we're doing internally with our other assets, we have an estimate of what other folks are going to do with their own assets. We've been very clear that we've been aggressively managing our portfolio as it relates to our ratable plan, and we'll continue down that path. The last thing I would add is that we talk a lot about the benefits of our Generation to Load Strategy, and we do it with both [ph] in the dollars. It also has a huge benefit from a market perspective because it doesn't force us to go to that illiquid over-the-counter market. We have a strong customer base and a very, very strong load serving business now that matches output of generation to quantity of load very well. And we're going to continue to grow that, and we've done it both organically very well and through acquisition with like Integrys and ComEd, and that's been a big benefit also.
Operator:
Your next question is from Stephen Byrd with Morgan Stanley.
Stephen Byrd:
Congratulations on a great quarter and on further cost reductions. I wanted to hit on what you mentioned in terms of some of your peers who would appear to need to shut down further plants. And we do see some of those same dynamics, but I was curious, from your point of view, what kind of catalysts or drivers should we be thinking about in terms of seeing more sort of rational decisions and further shutdowns? What do you see as some of the key catalysts?
Joseph Nigro:
So Stephen, I think the example I would give you is like when you look at coal-fired generations. When you look in the Eastern Interconnect between, call it, 2016 and over the next few years, we see almost 30 gigawatts of coal expected to retire, with almost 2/3 of that being done by the end of next year. The obvious examples are some of the plants that have been announced in Illinois and also in Ohio and the rationalization of that. Obviously, we've taken our own actions with our own power plants. We've seen others do the same thing beyond coal, and we expect more of that will continue if these low prices continue. Because when we look at it fundamentally, there are plants that are challenged economically that are still running that, really, the economic rationale isn't there for those to continue to operate.
Jonathan Thayer:
And Stephen, just to build on that. I think you've heard us make strong comments about a focus on reducing leverage at the Genco to 3x debt-to-EBITDA. I think the reality is, in this current pricing environment, you're going to start to see others look at their outlooks and look at their leverage statistics and focus their efforts on generating cash. In order to do that, they're going to need to retire money-losing assets. So I think it'll force greater discipline on their part. We're already seeing some of that. I think there's a potential for consolidation and asset optimization around that and portfolio optimization. So I think we see a pathway for others to be disciplined as we have. But obviously, we need to see execution on that -- in that regard.
Stephen Byrd:
Those are all great points. I wanted to shift over to the New York ZEC legal challenge, and I think you've laid out your points of view in terms of the legal position. In the event that, in court, the ZECs were either sort of overturned or remanded for substantial modification, can you speak to the impacts to the acquisition with Entergy in terms of the transaction impacts?
Joseph Dominguez:
Sure. Stephen, this is Joe Dominguez again. So the way you ought to look at that transaction is the legal risk will shift to us, really, around the time we do the outage in January. So post January, you ought to think about us as effectively being the economic owner of that legal risk, subject, of course, to the approvals. But we're not going to be able to walk away from the transaction if something occurs post January that changes the ZEC program. And the logic there is, after the outage, we effectively have our fueling machine, and we've paid for the outage cost, so we're going to be the economic owner at that point, again, subject to regulatory approvals of the transaction.
Stephen Byrd:
Understood. And I guess, the worst case always is that you do still have plant closure as an option, so that your worst case is captain, and you still do have the potential for, obviously, a good outcome?
Joseph Dominguez:
That's right. And we feel very strongly in the merits of the case. Otherwise, we would not have done this.
Operator:
Our next question is from Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Chris and Jack, the $0.02 to $0.08 of synergies from FitzPatrick, can you just remind us if that includes any additional synergies of owning FitzPatrick next to Nine Mile?
Christopher Crane:
It doesn't, and we'll evaluate that as we get into the integration. There's conversations now in the nuclear integration team on what is the best way to optimize. The security fences are next to each other. It's a very big site. So amalgamation of the complete site might be more expensive than it's worth, but there are other elements in and on the site that we can look for synergies around the support services and the executive management.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Okay, got it. And I don't know if you could mention the actual -- is it enough to be a couple of pennies or anything directionally? Or not yet, too early?
Christopher Crane:
Too early. We've got to get in and see and make sure that we maintain our design basis but look at everything possible we can to be more efficient.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Okay, got it. And then just lastly, with the strong results year-to-date, is this sort of any opportunities to pull forward some O&M? And maybe how we should think about it for the fourth quarter?
Jonathan Thayer:
I'd say, with respect to O&M, we're going to manage our plan tightly. And generally, there's not that much opportunity to move things quarter-to-quarter. The planning required for the bulk of our O&M takes months, if not years, and so I think you'll see us try and land pretty darn close to what we've shown you in the slides today.
Operator:
And we have time for one last question. That is from the line of Chris Turnure with JPMorgan.
Christopher Turnure:
I had some questions on Pepco, and I wanted to just get an update on your latest dialogue with interveners in Maryland and D.C. and just kind of how things are progressing there on their understanding of you guys underearning by so much and having stayed out of cases for so long there predeal.
Denis O'Brien:
This is Denis. Great question. We -- as we're going through the integration, I think things are going very, very well. As we mentioned before, it's going to be a long haul in terms of rate cases being filed every 12 to 15 months for the next 5 years. We've had some good progress in New Jersey. We're in the throes of the case in Maryland at this point, and I guess, we'll know about November 15 the outcome of that. So a little hard to predict. Maryland's somewhat challenging. We are continuing to work on improving reliability, improving all of our performance levels as well as working to improve our image reputation and brand in Maryland. But I think this is going be one of those things where it's going to take us a few cases to get through to a better level of performance. So we're seeing November 14 or 15 where we are, and we're going to make this happen. It just may take us a few cases into it.
Christopher Crane:
And in D.C., we're early in the process. We've made our filing. We're in data request now. Over 400, I believe, data requests are coming in. So there's going to be a lot of dialogue there, a lot of questions that we'll need to provide the sound answers for the basis of our request.
Christopher Turnure:
Okay. And then, excluding weather, were there other drivers behind the outperformance -- or pardon me, the guidance increase for the Pepco utilities for 2016?
Jonathan Thayer:
Primarily weather-related. So hotter-than-normal temperatures as well as storms, relative to what we budgeted, came in lighter. So beyond that, I think those were the major drivers.
Operator:
And that does conclude the question-and-answer portion. At this time, I would like to turn the conference back to Mr. Eggers for closing remarks.
Daniel Eggers:
Thank you all for joining us and your time today. I know it's a busy earnings day. We appreciate your interest in Exelon, and we look forward to seeing a number of you at EEI the week after next. Have a great day.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect your lines.
Executives:
Dan L. Eggers - Senior Vice President-Investor Relations Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Jonathan W. Thayer - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Executive VP Joseph Nigro - Executive Vice President, Exelon; Chief Executive Officer, Constellation, Exelon Corp.
Analysts:
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker)
Operator:
Good morning and welcome to the Exelon Corporation's Q1 2016 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Prasanthi and I'll be facilitating the audio portion of today's – and active broadcast. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. For those of you on this stream, please take note of the options available in your event console. At this time, I would like to turn the show over to Dan Eggers, Senior Vice President of Investors Relations.
Dan L. Eggers - Senior Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thank you, Prasanthi. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our first quarter 2016 earnings conference call. Leading the call today are Chris Crane, Exelon's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Jack Thayer, Exelon's Chief Financial Officer. They are joined by other members of Exelon's senior management team who will be available to answer your questions following our prepared remarks. We issued our earnings release this morning along with the presentation, both of which can be found in the Investor Relations section of the Exelon's website. The earnings release and other matters which we discuss during today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ from our forward-looking statements based on factors and assumptions discussed in today's material, comments made during this call, and our Risk Factors section in the earnings release, and the 10-Q, which we expect to file on May 10. Please refer to today's 8-K, the 10-Q, and Exelon's other filings for a discussion of factors that may cause results to differ from management's projections, forecasts and expectations. Today's presentation also includes references to adjusted operating earnings and other non-GAAP measures. Please refer to the information contained in the appendix of our presentation and our earnings release for a reconciliation between the non-GAAP measures to the nearest equivalent GAAP measures. We've scheduled 45 minutes for today's call. I'll now turn the call over to Chris Crane, Exelon's CEO.
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Good morning. Thanks for joining us this morning. Once again we had a great quarter financially, where we closed near the upper end of the range even with the milder weather. And operationally, our utilities and plants continue to operate at high levels. The big news for the quarter is we closed the Pepco Holdings transaction in March. We are excited to have Pepco utilities as part of the Exelon family. We know this has been a long journey and it took much longer than any of us anticipated, but we appreciate the patience of our investors as we pursued the merger. Our employees who worked tirelessly from the inception to the completion of the deal and the many stakeholders who've supported was critical to getting the deal done. PHI is an important piece of our strategy to become a more regulated company with more stable earnings streams. While we are still in the early stages of integrating PHI, PHI's earnings outlook is consistent, if not better, than what we showed you at EEI. It brings meaningful benefits to our customers, communities in Delaware, District of Columbia, Maryland, New Jersey, including bill credits and reliability investments. More than $500 million in total commitments have been made and will be achieved due to this merger. We're now focused on integrating Pepco into Exelon. We will bring our management model and our best practices to improve the experience of our customers. The transaction confirms Exelon's role as a leader in the industry. We serve 10 million customers, more than any other utility company. We will spend nearly $23 billion in capital across our utilities and generating business over the next three years, which is the second-highest among our peers. We are the largest pure T&D by rate base and within the top five when including rate base generation. We are the second-largest generator of electricity in the country, the largest competitor by a factor of nearly two, while producing power at the lowest carbon intensity of any large generator. We are the leader in the retail electric provider in the country serving 139 terawatts. The culture of the industry leadership is found throughout our organization, positioning us very well for the future. Switching to operational performance. Our first quarter operating performance was strong and we're on track for a strong year. At our legacy utilities, our SAIFI and CAIDI are on track to meet reliability targets; we are in top quartile in both. At the GenCo, our nuclear plants ran at a capacity factor of 95.8%, our solar and wind assets outperformed their energy capture targets. Switching to Illinois in the nuclear plants. While there is much to celebrate this quarter, we also need to make tough decisions on the future of Clinton and Quad Cities nuclear stations in Illinois. The board has given me authority to go forward with early retirements for Clinton and Quad Cities plants, if for Clinton adequate legislation is not passed during the spring legislative session that is scheduled to end May 31, and if for Quad Cities adequate legislation is not passed and the plant does not clear the upcoming PJM auction. Otherwise, we plan to retire Clinton on June 1, 2017, and Quad Cities on June 1, 2018. This is consistent with planned refueling outage and capacity market obligations. We committed to our employees, our shareholders and the communities to try to find a path to profitability for our distressed assets. This is because these plants are vital to the communities that they are located in and provide economic and environmental value to the state. The state's own analysis showed that closing Clinton and Quad Cities would result in $1.2 billion in lost economic activity and 4,200 jobs lost, and a significant reduction of supply of reliable electricity for Illinois residents and businesses. We worked hard over the last few years to find a path to sustainable profitability. To bring $120 million in strategic capital to these plants, we've pursued legislation and regulatory market changes. We've been successful in some areas
Jonathan W. Thayer - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Executive VP:
Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone. My remarks today will cover our first quarter results, 2016 guidance, update our gross margin disclosures and provide an update on developments since Q4. I'll start on slide eight. As Chris stated, we had a strong quarter financially and operationally across the company. For the first quarter we delivered adjusted non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.68 per share, near the top of our guidance range of $0.60 per share to $0.70 per share. This compares to $0.71 per share for the first quarter of 2015. Exelon's utilities delivered a combined $0.37 per share. During the quarter, we saw unfavorable mild weather at PECO and ComEd versus planned, which was partially offset by lower bad debt expense at BGE. There are only eight days of PHI included in our results, which had a minimal impact on the quarter. Generation had a great quarter, earning $0.34 per share. We had strong performance from our nuclear assets with better capacity factors than budgeted. And while weak power prices and lower volatility were a drag, our Constellation team delivered strong results. Our generation to load matching strategy continues to provide value and we benefited from a lower cost to serve our customers. For the second quarter, we are providing guidance of $0.50 to $0.60 per share. This compares to our realized earnings of $0.59 per share for the second quarter of 2015. The appendix contains details on our first quarter financial results compared to the first quarter of 2015 results by operating company on slide 16 and 17. Turning to slide nine, we are affirming our full-year guidance range of $2.40 to $2.70 per share which now includes the contribution from PHI and assumes an average of 926 million shares outstanding for 2016. This should help calibrate your segment models. On slide 10, we are still working through a comprehensive financial plan now that we have closed the PHI deal, but want to address the pieces that we can today. We are reaffirming our earnings growth at our legacy utilities of 7% to 9% per year from 2015 to 2018. On PHI, we are still working through the plan, but see the contribution equal to or better than what we showed you at EEI and consistent with sustaining our 7% to 9% utility growth target. On slide 11, to meet these growth targets we are going to be busy on the regulatory front. The PHI utilities have been out of rate cases for at least two years. We are continuing to invest $800 million per year to improve reliability and customer service leading to the low-earned ROEs that we show on slide 30 in the appendix. However, by the third quarter, we plan to file distribution cases in all of PHI's jurisdictions and expect decisions in all cases by the middle of next year providing needed revenue release. Atlantic City Electric and Pepco Maryland have already filed their cases. ACE filed an electric distribution base rate case on March 22 with the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities requesting an $84 million revenue increase and a 10.6% return on equity. It also included PowerAhead, a five-year $176 million grid resiliency plan. On April 19, Pepco requested a rate increase of $127 million with the Maryland's Public Service Commission. The rate cases include smart meter recovery and a two-year $32 million grid resiliency plan. In addition to reducing the number and length of outages, Pepco's five-year smart grid program is generating nearly $4 in customer benefits for every $1 invested. In addition, ComEd made its annual formula rate filing with the Illinois Commerce Commission. ComEd requested a revenue requirement increase of $138 million reflecting approximately $2.4 billion in capital investments made in 2015. Those investments, which included $663 million for smart grid-related work has helped strengthen and modernize the electric system, resulting in record power reliability and customer satisfaction, operational savings, and new ways to save on electric bills for ComEd customers. More details on the rate cases can be found on slide 33 – slides 34 through 37 in the appendix. Slide 12 provides our first quarter gross margin update. In 2016 total gross margin is flat to our last disclosure. During the quarter we executed on $200 million of power new business and $100 million of non-power new business. We are highly hedged for the rest of this year and well-balanced on our generation to load matching strategy. Total gross margin decreased in the first quarter by $150 million in 2017 and $200 million in 2018, as PJM power prices moved approximately $1.60 to $2.10 lower since the beginning of the year. We ended the quarter approximately 5% to 8% behind ratable in both of these years when considering cross-commodity hedges with a majority of modeling concentrated in the Midwest to align to our fundamental view of spot market upside at NiHub. Power prices have risen since the start of the second quarter and we are timing our hedging activity to lock in the value of the recent price increases while remaining well positioned to capture our fundamental view. On slide 13, I wanted to give you a quick update on some tax implications that are associated with the completion of the PHI merger. With the inclusion of PHI, we expect to realize $700 million to $850 million of additional cash from 2017 to 2019 related to legacy NOLs and the impacts of bonus depreciation. However, now, as a very modest cash tax payer for 2018, we have less ability to take the domestic production activities deduction, or DPAD, in 2018 which effectively increases our overall consolidated tax rate by as much as 200 basis points or the equivalent of $0.06 to $0.08 per share in 2018. Although this is a one-time negative impact to 2018 ExGen earnings, it comes with significant positive cash flow and we expect to return to normalized tax rates in 2019. With the variability of interest rates, I'd like to remind you that ComEd's allowed ROE is based on a 30-year treasury rate plus 580 basis points, and thus sensitive to moves in this rate. Every 25 basis point move in treasury rates results in a $0.01 move in EPS. Before turning the call over to Chris, I wanted to raise a few scheduling points. We'll be hosting an Analyst Day on August 10 in Philadelphia and we'll get details around shortly. Therefore, we will not be having a second quarter earnings call and will release earnings before Analyst Day. I will now turn the call back to Chris for his closing remarks.
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Thanks, Jack. Just closing out on slide 14, the capital allocation philosophy. I want to cover that before we turn it over to Q&A, and take a moment to reiterate our capital allocation philosophy. Balance sheet strength remains a top financial priority. We have a strong strategy to deliver stable growth, sustainable earnings, and an attractive dividend to our shareholders. We will be growing that dividend at 2.5% each year for the next three years, starting with the dividend payable in June. From a capital deployment perspective, we will continue to harvest free cash flow from the generation business to invest primarily in our utilities to benefit our customers, invest in long-term contracted assets which meet our return requirements, and return capital to our shareholders. This is the right strategy for our markets and our assets. Thanks and we'll open the line up now for your questions.
Operator:
And we do have audio question from Stephen Byrd (17:13).
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Hey, Steve (17:15).
Unknown Speaker:
Start on the Illinois legislation. And wonder if you could speak to the breadth of support that you have for the proposal. And then also if you could just go through the mechanics of if it was implemented, how it'd work? So we can start to think about modeling the impacts.
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Joe, you want to cover that?
Joseph Nigro - Executive Vice President, Exelon; Chief Executive Officer, Constellation, Exelon Corp.:
Sure. Steve (17:36), the support is the same support we had for the original bill, labor, the host communities. And in addition, we now have the support of some groups that represent climate scientists and others that are concerned with greenhouse gas emissions. In terms of how the program would work, let me just start with a policy analogy that I think all of you are familiar with. Existing state RPS programs for renewables provide compensation of qualified resources through renewable energy credits, RECs. The REC value is the difference between available wholesale revenues and the costs needed to keep the existing renewables in operation and get new renewables built. All this is done in order to get the benefit of greenhouse gas reductions while protecting customers. If wholesale revenues go up, the needed REC payment goes down. We see that happening every day in REC spot markets. The ZEC program is designed the same way. It's a payment for the state value of zero emission credits from nuclear plants which represents the difference between the needed revenues and the costs of operating the plants. In the case of the New York and Illinois programs, the way it would work is that experts at the Commissions will determine on a prospective basis the cost of operating the plants plus risks, less available market revenues. And where there is a delta between that, in other words where the costs and risks are not covered by available market revenues, the ZEC program will kick in and provide compensation for greenhouse gas avoidance. The program is not a PPA or a contractor difference. If revenues or costs are different, there is no true-up. And – so, Steve (19:26), I think if you have additional questions, perhaps after the call we could work with Dan and Emily to set up a meeting, go through more programmatic details.
Unknown Speaker:
That's great. That's a great start. Thank you. And then just shifting over to renewables more broadly, could you just speak to your degree of appetite for more acquisitions? It sounds like you'll be a full taxpayer, I believe, in 2019, if I have that correct. But just broadly, what degree of opportunities do you see out there in renewables? Is this an area that you would expect that you'll see further growth in?
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
It is definitely throttled based off of our tax capacity and we are looking at that now. You do get a certain amount of dilution with delaying the benefits of the tax attributes of the project, so we have some projects in the pipeline now and are re-evaluating others to see if they're – they would be viable to go forward in the near-term.
Unknown Speaker:
Understood. Thank you very much.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Steve Fleishman.
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Hi, Steve.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Hi. Good morning. A couple of – first, a logistical question. The Ginna $101 million that you mentioned that you're getting, is that – is kind of a trued-up amount including past years, is that in your guidance for this year? Or is that kind of like a one-time item or how are you treating that?
Jonathan W. Thayer - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Executive VP:
Steve, that's in our guidance.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. Including any back from prior periods?
Jonathan W. Thayer - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Executive VP:
That's correct.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. And then a question just – is there any way you can give us some sense on the cash flow or losses from Clinton and Quad Cities, let's say, in your guidance for last year or something of that sort?
Jonathan W. Thayer - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Executive VP:
So we've stated that it's greater than $800 million since 2009. There are some variables in there on cash savings going forward or cash losses going forward, power prices coming down, cost cutting initiatives; and we do have an element of overheads that would not be as controllable. So you would see the run rate to be similar to what has happened in the past.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay.
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Steve, you know, on this point – so for 2017, the cost exceeded available market revenues or at current marks (22:12) by $140 million. But I think importantly and Joe raised this point, it's not the whole picture. The closure also avoids millions of dollars in basis and unit-contingent risks that we face by operating the plants. And stated differently, in order to reverse course we need Illinois as well as New York to provide a structure that allows us to cover our cash costs plus normal operating risks in order to reverse this course.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. And $140 million that's kind of cash flow? Does that include like CapEx, or is that just kind of cash flow without CapEx?
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
That's cash flow.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. One last question just on the – in the event legislation doesn't happen and you need to shut the plants, what – is there any cost related to that?
Jonathan W. Thayer - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Executive VP:
As you saw in the K, and we reiterate in the Q, there is some unfunded liabilities on the decommissioning trust. Those numbers are in there at full 100% ownership of the plants. And so the way that we would have to handle that is – you know, you can start out with parent guarantees, but you have to have it funded over a 10-year period, I think 60% by the end of the fifth year, and then the rest by the end of the 10 years.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. Those numbers in the K are still good then, so that we just can use those?
Jonathan W. Thayer - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Executive VP:
They're updated in the Q.
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
That'll be coming Tuesday.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Jonathan Arnold.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Hey, good morning, guys.
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Good Morning.
Jonathan W. Thayer - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Executive VP:
Good Morning.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Just to clarify one thing on the current proposal that I think was emerged last night around the legislation. So originally this applies to all nuclear plants in the state, but is it correct that this would just be Clinton and Quad? And can you just explain how that works in terms of the discussion of the ZEC structure?
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Joe?
Joseph Nigro - Executive Vice President, Exelon; Chief Executive Officer, Constellation, Exelon Corp.:
Sure. Jonathan, all plants could apply, but quite obviously the only plants that would receive revenue under this program would be those where the costs exceed the revenues. And so there is – it's a 20 terawatt-hour cap which has enough room in it to accommodate Clinton and Quad Cities. And our expectation is that Exelon would seek to have those two plants participate. The other plants would not participate.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. And that's sort of nuanced in how the legislation's worded effectively?
Joseph Nigro - Executive Vice President, Exelon; Chief Executive Officer, Constellation, Exelon Corp.:
That's correct.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay.
Joseph Nigro - Executive Vice President, Exelon; Chief Executive Officer, Constellation, Exelon Corp.:
It's the same offer to you, Jonathan; if you'd like, after the call, we could sit down and work through some of the details.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. That'll be great. And is there any...
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
And, Jonathan, just to interject just to make the clear point, they would provide the opportunity to be compensated for cost plus risk.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. That was one thing. The second thing, in your fourth quarter deck, you have this forecast around leverage ratios and the like going out through 2018, which, I believe, was assuming that Pepco would not happen. This was of the ExGen. Can you give us a sense of how that progression would look if you kind of market to the – with Pepco scenario?
Jonathan W. Thayer - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Executive VP:
Sure. So, Jonathan, we still anticipate reducing leverage of ExGen by $3 billion over the five-year planning period, albeit this is not to the extend that we would have under the standalone scenario, because ExGen's free cash flow is now being deployed to help fund PHI's capital spending program. And we'll provide more detail on the puts and takes of that at the Analyst Day in August.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
So $3 billion is kind of the new ExGen delevering number?
Jonathan W. Thayer - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Executive VP:
That's right. That's over the next five years, we have a large maturity. And I believe it's 2019, that we would look to retire at maturity.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. So that's over five years?
Jonathan W. Thayer - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Executive VP:
That's correct.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
And then the 2.3 ExGen debt-to-EBITDA that you were looking at for 2018, roughly what does that look like now?
Jonathan W. Thayer - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Executive VP:
It, over the five-year period, would go to right around three times.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
So that's again over five years, rather than three years?
Jonathan W. Thayer - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Executive VP:
That's correct.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay, great. Thank you. And then I guess you mentioned in the prepared remarks the prices have rebounded...
Jonathan W. Thayer - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Executive VP:
So, Jonathan – sorry, just let me correct, 2.7 times at the end of the five-year period.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
So whereas you have 2.3 times in 2018, it's now 2.7 times after five years?
Jonathan W. Thayer - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Executive VP:
Yes.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay, great. Thank you. And then you mentioned that prices have rebounded. So can you give us a rough sense of how the kind of gross margin mark would look if you use more like today's prices?
Joseph Nigro - Executive Vice President, Exelon; Chief Executive Officer, Constellation, Exelon Corp.:
Yeah. Jonathan, good morning. It's Joe Nigro. I think if you look at our hedge disclosure at the end of the quarter and then factor in the changes since the end of March, you would see all of that drop in 2017 and 2018 being recovered. We've seen an appreciable move, as you know, in prices since the end of March. We're actually higher in NiHub than we were at the end of the year. We're higher at West Hub than we were at the end of the year, so we would have recovered all that drop and probably adding to it. We calculated that a couple of days ago, but the market has continued to move higher, so we probably have seen it actually go over where it ended the quarter.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Great. Okay. That's it. Thank you very much, guys.
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Thanks.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Yeah. Hi. Good morning.
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Good morning.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
So perhaps to follow up on the same theme, can you elaborate a little bit on the balance of the nuclear portfolio that is ex-Clinton, ex-Quad? How you think about their cash flow profile? And if you don't get this legislation, what the prospects are for further rationalization? I don't mean to jump the gun too much here, but just talking about the future a little bit more?
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
So there's varying cash flows by assets depending on their location. They are positive at this point. If you look at the other units that are more challenged, you're looking at Ginna and Nine Mile. One – we know about Oyster Creek and it's coming up in 2019, the other one that has a real focus on it right now is Three Mile Island.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Got it. And specific to Illinois, is there any commentary around – so let's say we don't get it in 2016 or 2017, does that trigger another set of reviews? Again, not to push it too much.
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
At this point we'll have to watch the capacity auction clearing in the out years. It's tight on energy at some of the assets, but they are positive.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Got it. Okay, great. And then turning back to the utilities real quickly, can you comment, or I'm curious, if you will, what the earned ROEs embedded at Pepco for 2016 – just what's the baseline on the Pepco side as far as you see it post the close?
Jonathan W. Thayer - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Executive VP:
Julien, in terms of – I think we included it on slide, I believe it's 30, the earned for 2015. Obviously, while we're in the pendency period during the rate cases that – obviously, there's regulatory lag, so we're going to see that decline, but we'll have a much deeper dive in the PHI as part of the August 10 meeting. You can see on slide 29 the rate base statistics and I think can work through some assumptions on regulatory lag using that information.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Got it. And perhaps not to jump the gun too much on the Analyst Day, but what is the thought process on the baseline for a future regulated CAGR?
Jonathan W. Thayer - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Executive VP:
I think the thought is the 7% to 9% that we confirmed on the call and PHI is absolutely consistent with that expectation. We, as we mentioned, are seeing improvement relative to what we forecasted or projected at EEI using PHI's internal forecast. And Dennis and team continue to work to identify further opportunities around efficiency as well as regulatory policy to work to get those earned and allowed ROEs in line with the success we've experienced within Maryland, Pennsylvania and Illinois.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Got it. You wouldn't roll it forward though?
Jonathan W. Thayer - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Executive VP:
I'm not certain I understand what do you mean roll it forward?
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
The 7% to 9%, just roll it forward to CAGR off a 2016 base?
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
We'll address that at the Analyst Day.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
All right. No worries. Thank you.
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
I mean, embedded in there is 7% to 9% through 2018, so just thinking it through, it's in there.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Got it. Thank you.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Brian Chen (32:25).
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Hey, Brian (32:30).
Unknown Speaker:
Going over to slide 13, the EPS impact that you've laid out in that top table, I just want to verify that that is not including the use of capital from that positive cash flow impact that you've got on the second row right?
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
That's right, Brian (32:46).
Unknown Speaker:
Okay. Great. And then I just want to verify that Quad Cities didn't clear in the 2018 and 2019 auction, correct? So the closure of Quad Cities shouldn't have any sort of residual obligation that you have for the 2018, 2019 capacity through (33:03)?
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
That's correct.
Unknown Speaker:
Great. Thanks a lot.
Operator:
And your next audio question comes from Praful Mehta.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Hi, guys.
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Good morning.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Good morning. So just on the leverage a little bit, just to ensure we understand both at the holding company level and at ExGen. You've kind of talked about the ExGen debt and what you see over the 20 – the five year period. How are you looking at holding company debt given the leverage you've assumed post Pepco transactions? Is there any objective to delever a little bit at the holding company as well?
Jonathan W. Thayer - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Executive VP:
So Praful, as you've heard us comment in the past, we do target at 20% FFO to debt on a consolidated basis and that was one of the benefits of adding PHI to the Exelon family. And so we will certainly be looking at our leverage ratios at the GenCo. I think you'll also see us consider to the extend we have available cash at the holding company as well, we just need to see as we get further out what the realized power prices are and what the free cash flow coming off of the GenCo is in those five years.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Got you. And just so if you think about from the sources/uses perspective, the source is primarily out of ExGen coming to fund CapEx at the utilities and then deleveraging both at ExGen and the parent. Is that a fair way to think of it or is there some cash generation coming out of the utilities as well over the next two year, three year period?
Jonathan W. Thayer - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Executive VP:
I would say, on a net basis, utilities are consumers of cash. So you're correct. That ExGen cash flow as well as debt raise at the utilities is the primary source for funding the significant CapEx that we see, $25 billion over the next five years at the utilities.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Got you. Thank you. And then just finally, we saw that the power new business and the to-go business, the EBITDA, or the growth margin of that is going from $250 million in 2016 up to about a $1 billion by 2018. Could you just give us a little bit of context of what's driving that significant ramp-up in that side of the business?
Joseph Nigro - Executive Vice President, Exelon; Chief Executive Officer, Constellation, Exelon Corp.:
Yeah. Hi. It's Joe Nigro. That's pretty standard shape that we have. If you go back and look at disclosures over the years, you would expect to see much less new business in the prompt years – in the prompt year, in this case 2016, than you would in the out years, for example, in 2017 and 2018. Embedded in that power new business is things like the execution of our retail business and the margins associated with that. So as we get closer to the swap period more and more of those contracts get layered in, we begin to reduce that bucket of power new business. I mean, there's other elements of our business that follow that same timing shape, so this isn't unique in the sense of seeing a ramp up between the prompt year to two years forward and we're very comfortable with the numbers that we've put out there.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Got you. Thank you so much guys.
Operator:
And this does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Thank you.
Executives:
Francis Idehen - Vice President, Investor Relations Chris Crane - President and Chief Executive Officer Jack Thayer - Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI Dan Eggers - Credit Suisse Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank Praful Mehta - Citigroup Barbara Chapman - BNP Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Partners
Operator:
Good morning. My name is LaShanta and I will be your conference operator today. At this time I'd like to welcome everyone to the Exelon Corporation Q4 2016 earnings conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Francis Idehen. Please go ahead, sir.
Francis Idehen:
Thank you, LaShanta. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our fourth quarter 2015 earnings conference call. Leading the call today are Chris Crane, Exelon's President and Chief Executive Officer, and Jack Thayer, Exelon's Chief Financial Officer. They are joined by other members of Exelon's senior management team who will be available to answer your questions following our prepared remarks. We issued our earnings release this morning along with the presentation, each of which can be found in the Investor Relations section of Exelon's website. The earnings release and other matters, which we discuss during today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ from our forward-looking statements based on factors and assumptions discussed in the earnings release, today's material, comments made during this call and in the risk factors section of the 2014 10-K and the third-quarter 10-Q. Please refer to today's 8-K and the 10-K and the 10-Q and Exelon's other filings for a discussion of factors that may cause results to differ from management's projections, forecast and expectations. Today's presentation also includes references to adjusted operating earnings and other non-GAAP measures. Please refer to the information contained in the appendix of our presentation and our earnings release for a reconciliation between the non-GAAP measures to the nearest equivalent GAAP measures. We've scheduled 45 minutes for today's call. I will now turn the call over to Chris Crane, Exelon's CEO.
Chris Crane:
Thanks, Francis, and good morning to everybody. Thank you for joining us on our fourth quarter call. Before I go into the results I want to take a moment to thank our crews who worked hard to restore power for our customers in Baltimore and Philadelphia affected by the January storms. BGE and PECO were able to restore approximately 22,000 customers throughout the weather event, keeping the average restoration times to less than three hour, which is a remarkable accomplishment given the challenges associated with traveling and the working conditions as the storm intensified. I'll start off by reiterating our strategy and our capital allocation philosophy. The balance sheet strength is a priority that guides every strategic decision. It allows us to deliver stable growth, sustainable earnings and an attractive dividend for our shareholders. Our strategy for delivering these objectives is to harvest free cash flow from the Genco, to invest primarily in the utilities for the benefit of our customers, invest in long-term contracted assets, which meet our return requirements and return capital to the shareholders. Consistent with this capital allocation policy, we're announcing today an evolution in our dividend policy. Our board has approved a policy to raise our dividend by 2.5% each year for the next three years beginning with the June 2016 dividend. The dividend increase shows our commitment to provide an attractive total return proposition for our shareholders and reflects the shift in focus towards our regulated utility and long-term contract businesses. Our balance sheet and our cash flow profile support the shift in the dividend policy and maintain a high credit quality and investment grade rating remains a top priority. We continue to de-risk the Company by growing our regulated business. This has allowed us to generate earnings with a lower risk profile. We remain as focused as ever on careful disciplined use of capital. Let's turn now to 2015 results in each of our businesses and our goals for 2016. Despite a difficult year in the markets we delivered earnings of $2.49 a share in 2015 demonstrating once again our ability to run businesses well and manage through even the most challenging environments. At our utilities, 2015 was a record year for us in many respects and growing regulated business continues to thrive. We achieved a major earnings milestone
Jack Thayer:
Thank you, Chris, and good morning everyone. As Chris stated, we had a strong year financially and operationally across the Company. For the full year, we delivered earnings of $2.49 per share and $0.38 per share for the fourth quarter. If bonus had not been extended, we would have delivered earnings of $2.58 per share, meaningfully exceeding the midpoint of our guidance range. The appendix contains details on our fourth-quarter financial results by operating Company on slides 21 and 22. My remarks today will focus on 2016 earnings and O&M guidance, our credit profile, the cost management initiative and an update of our gross margin disclosures. Turning to slide 6, we expect to deliver 2016 full-year adjusted operating earnings of $2.40 to $2.70 and $0.60 to $0.70 per share for the first quarter. While we anticipate closing the Pepco holdings deal in the first quarter, our guidance is a standalone figure that assumes the equity and debt issued for the PHI deal is unwound during the year. The impact of the extension of bonus depreciation is included in the guidance. Our growing utilities earnings primarily reflect increased capital investment in distribution and transmission to improve reliability and customer service at ComEd as well as increased rates from PECO's recent distribution rate case, partially offset by higher O&M at PECO and BGE related to storm and bad debt costs. Our strong operating performance at our utilities is fostering a positive regulatory environment in all our jurisdictions and is evident in the transformation and allowed and earned returns that we've achieved at BGE since the Constellation merger. BGE has improved reliability and customer satisfaction in every year as compared to 2012, the year of the merger, which in turn has led to improved regulatory outcomes and earned ROEs over that same period. Last November, BGE filed an electric and gas distribution rate case with the Maryland Public Service Commission requesting revenue requirement increases of $121 million and $80 million through its electric and gas distribution rates respectively. The requested rates of return on equity in the application are 10.6% for electric distribution and 10.5% for gas distribution. We expect the Maryland PSC to rule on the rate case in the June timeframe with the new rates going into effect shortly after the final order. The revenue requirement increases reflect the continued investment including Smart Grid being made at BGE to improve reliability and customer service. Constellation had a record year in 2015 driven by higher realized margins that benefited from a lower cost to serve our load and strong performance in our portfolio management group. In 2016, we expect a more normalized cost to serve load and portfolio management performance, which we expect will have a negative impact on our earnings relative to an extraordinary 2015. Overall, at Exelon Generation the earnings impact from normalized margins and higher decommissioning costs, partially offset by fewer nuclear outages and cost management efforts, results in a forecast decrease in ExGen's earnings range versus last year. Our cost management initiative savings in 2016 should largely offset the impact of inflation at ExGen where labor and wage inflation are significant components of O&M. For reference, more detail on the year-over-year drivers by operating Company can be found in the appendix on slides 23 through 26. Moving to slide 7, as we've said in the past bonus depreciation has a negative impact on earnings, but a positive impact on cash. In 2016 it creates a rounded $0.09 earnings drag at the consolidated level with a $0.06 impact at Exelon Generation and a $0.03 impact at ComEd. On the cash front it increases cash flow by $625 million in 2016. Despite the negative earnings impact of bonus depreciation in 2016 through 2018 we are affirming the CAGR of 3% to 5% for the enterprise and 7% to 9% for the utilities through 2018 that we disclosed at EEI. In addition the extension of bonus depreciation will likely have a further effect on Exelon as a whole after the closing of the Pepco holdings deal. Once the merger is completed and we begin the integration of PHI's operating, planning and regulatory functions we will provide an update on PHI's forecast and the resulting accretion impact on Exelon's forecasts. On slide 8, our top financial priority remains maintaining our investment grade credit rating and ensuring the strength of our balance sheet. The five-year extension of bonus depreciation improves the free cash flow position at ExGen, which has a positive impact on our FFO to debt metrics. ExGen free cash flow over the 2016 to 2018 period is now projected to be $5.35 billion or $3.2 billion after taking into account committed growth capital. Since our EEI disclosure Exelon Generation has commenced developing a further 350 megawatts of long-term contracted wind projects in Michigan and Oklahoma. As you'll note on the slide, given our strong cash flow outlook ExGen has a declining debt to EBITDA ratio starting at 3.2 in 2016 and decreasing to 2.3 times debt to EBITDA by 2018. Bottom line, we're growing durable earnings and shrinking debt. Turning to slide 9, I will provide an update on the cost management initiative that we announced towards the end of last year. We recently finalized the savings initiatives in January and have incorporated them in our current long-range plan. As we mentioned at EEI, the total identified savings are in the $350 million range with savings split equally between Exelon Generation and our corporate shared services organization. $100 million of the savings of the shared services organization will be achieved within our information technology function with the remainder coming from various corporate function such as finance, legal, human resources, and supply. The corporate savings will be allocated roughly equally between Exelon Generation and the utilities. Overall, this means that roughly three-quarters of the total cost savings for the Company will hit the bottom line in Exelon Generation, while the remaining quarter of the savings will be realized at the utilities and ultimately passed on to our customers. As a result, we expect a run rate earnings benefit from our cost management initiative of $0.13 to $0.18 per share beginning in 2018 with approximately 35% of the run rate savings achieved by the end of this year. Our proven track record of cutting cost and running our business efficiently gives us confidence we will be able to achieve or exceed these savings. Slide 10 shows our 2016 O&M forecast relative to 2015. We project O&M for 2016 to be flat to 2015 and we expect a slightly negative O&M CAGR across the enterprise over the 2015 to 2018 period and a negative 1% CAGR at Exelon Generation. ExGen's year-over-year decrease is driven by a combination of factors
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Greg Gordon with Evercore ISI.
Greg Gordon:
Thanks, good morning guys. Great presentation. Thank you. A couple of questions. Can you talk in a little bit more detail about what your plan is and what the milestones are for making a decision in Illinois on the uneconomic units? And can you refresh our memory on where we stand in terms of profit and loss on the three units that you had initially a year and a half or two years ago identified as impaired?
Chris Crane:
Sure. As you know we were successful and PJM was successful on the capacity market redesigns that gave some upside to the fleet in NiHub. Greatly helped Byron and added help to Quad cities, but since then as you've seen the downturn in the forwards Quad cities continues to be challenged and more neutral on cash flows and earnings, while maintaining the risk of operation. We continue to work on Clinton. Clinton is negative. We have two initiatives underway, one working with MISO on Zone 4 reforms and we'd like the design to be more like the new PJM capacity market design. But that in itself will not save Clinton. As you know there's a lot of work going on in Springfield with the administration and the legislature. And we have had a very strong support from the leadership of the legislature and the administration on coming to a resolution on the energy outlook for Illinois. It's not only the Clean Energy Standard, but there is an environmental jobs, agreeing jobs bill and there's a utility of the future bill that have to be negotiated together. There's been progress made in that dialogue, but it is critical that we have, that we're able to present to the legislature this spring a combined package that ensures the financial viability of our assets as they contribute highly in reliability, in environmental or we will have to make the rational economic decision. It's our job to get the stakeholders together. We're working hard on that and to bring the leadership what is a consensus package that’s good for all of Illinois and its customers. So we're in this spring time in Illinois and we're hopeful that we can have reasonable heads prevail and negotiate a balanced outcome and as I said present that to the leadership so they can provide the continued support.
Greg Gordon:
Okay, so Quad because of the further decline in gas prices and power prices since the CPE results has gone back out of the money. So is that a fair summary?
Chris Crane:
It is. It is. With these forwards it is.
Greg Gordon:
Okay. And the second question is, so you guys are going to, based on your cash flow slide on page 37 you're going to end the year with a pretty substantial cash balance. And if I look at the cash flow profile you project through 2018 that should continue to grow all things equal. Your debt to EBITDA is going to be sub-3, by my measure you're trading at under 4.5 times EVD to EBITDA on the implied valuation of the nuclear business. That basically implies that the nuclear is a wasting asset write, that with $8.5 billion of debt on the balance sheet that you should be amortizing debt because these plants are going away in 10 years. I mean what can you do to convince investors that this low gas price environment doesn't ultimately drive these assets out of business? Because if they are 20- or 30-year assets and not 10-year assets the stock is undervalued.
Chris Crane:
Yes, first of all there's more than 10 years on these assets. We had license renewal at Braidwood. It goes into the late 2040s. The money producing plants are the larger dual unit sites that will run into the 2040s. That's Byron Braidwood, LaSalle, Limerick, Peach Bottom and they are positioned well in the markets. Peach Bottom is in the 30s I think, but the others are in the 40s. So we've got a long run left on these profitable plants. If the smaller units or the single site units cannot be profitable and we can't get a market design they will be retired and there is an upside based off of that retirement on free cash flow and earnings. We will remove the drag. As Jack described, we're very focused on the debt to EBITDA ratios at the GenCo, and over this period of time we will be reducing over $3 billion of debt at the GenCo and continuing to manage that, matching our assets with our debt. We feel very comfortable where we're at. But it is a misnomer that is out there that these are 10-year assets with a large debt profile on them. Jack, you want to -.
Jack Thayer:
No, I think you covered it Chris. I mean the goal is to create that fortress balance sheet to do the right things around our assets and sustain the profitability of the long lived plants.
Greg Gordon:
All right, thanks guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Dan Eggers with Credit Suisse.
Dan Eggers:
Hey, good morning guys. If we go look at the dividend increase in the 2.5% a year for the next three years, can you maybe, Chris, share how the Board thought about using capital to raise the dividend considering you already have a pretty healthy yield? And then what was the thought process behind 2.5% a year for those three years?
Chris Crane:
Sure. We had, as we talked back three years ago now when we had to restructure the dividend, we had grown the dividend at Exelon based off of the earnings and cash flow on a very volatile business, the GenCo. We had to make the shift and take the pain at the time to refocus the payout and where that reliable cash flow would come from. We set out at that time after the merger with Constellation, improving the performance for the customers and the reliability of BGE and along with that improving the profitability. ComEd has done a phenomenal job improving reliability, making prudent investments and as our shareholders have seen, as you have seen, the strategic plan we laid out a few years ago is paying off. And it can be seen, it's transparent that by 2018 theoretically the utilities would be covering the dividend. In discussion with shareholders and feedback at the end of the year the certainty and our confidence in the business needed to be fully displayed. In dialogue with the Board, we thought that we can make these increases. We've talked about the free cash flow, we talked about the balance sheet and we're committed to that through 2018. I think it's a positive sign in the right direction that we feel confident in our strategy going forward.
Dan Eggers:
Okay, got it. And then on the Pepco deal, I guess you have kind of down to one month of room for the commission to make a decision. I guess A, have you heard anything or is there anything indicative of where the commission could make a decision? And B, if the deal does not get approved how do we think about the full return of the previously raised equity and the debt retirement?
Chris Crane:
So the commission did state that they would take this matter up before our March 4 date. And that's our only commitment is to try this till March 4 and if we can't get it by March 4 then we have to fold up and then start to execute on the debt reduction and the buyback of the equity issued. And that would start immediately. The plans, the contingency plans are in place by Jack and Stacy and the team. And that execution would then start at that point.
Jack Thayer:
And Dan, just for modeling convention, what we've assumed is it takes us roughly five months to buy back the equity and that has a $0.06 drag associated with it during 2016 on our standalone plan. And we would assume we'd retire the majority of the debt associated with Pepco in March, which has a $0.01 drag. So all-in on a standalone basis there's about $0.07 of drag in our EPS associated with PHI closing that out if we end up on a standalone basis.
Dan Eggers:
And I think that the disclosure in the back of the $1.6 billion or whatever buyback that you have in the appendix, that's based on just buying back the same number of shares you originally issued, although the notional amount is obviously less than you raised. And is there a possibility you guys could buy back the amount you raised rather than the number of shares?
Jack Thayer:
To your point what we've modeled is buying back the 57.5 million shares that we issued for the transaction. I think our balance sheet strength and where we see that orienting from a debt-to-EBITDA basis provides a lot of flexibility. And we'll review what's the best means of creating value for shareholders.
Dan Eggers:
Got it. Thank you, guys.
Chris Crane:
Operator:
Your next question comes from Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research.
Steve Fleishman:
Yeah, hi, good morning. Just on the dividend strategy change I just wanted to confirm that that's the plan kind of with or without Pepco?
Chris Crane:
It is.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. And secondly, what are your thoughts on the use of the bonus depreciation cash? And it sounds like you haven't included that in the impact of bonus or you're just taking the hit but not including reinvestment. What might you reinvest in?
Chris Crane:
We have significant investment in the utilities. We are putting debt on the holding company. We would anticipate less debt issuance to infuse the equity into the utilities as part of that. And there we would look at other opportunities to for further regulated or contracted investment if they met our hurdle rates.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. And then the $1.350 billion that you're putting into contracted generation at ExGen, is that all renewables projects?
Jack Thayer:
There's a contracted peaker up in New England that's a modest part of that. But the bulk of that is contracted wind or contracted distributed generation.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay, and argue assuming – are you including any debt financing on those assets or are you assuming for purposes here you're just funding all of it? And could you add debt to those projects?
Jack Thayer:
Steve, we're assuming that because of their contracted nature that we'll be able to secure project financing, which would get some measure of off credit treatment to minimize the impact on the overall balance sheet.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. And so the $1.350 billion is just your equity investment in these?
Jack Thayer:
The $1.350 billion is just cash.
Steve Fleishman:
Cash. Okay.
Jack Thayer:
So that can be either project financed or equity financed, some combination of both.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay, great. Thank you very much.
Chris Crane:
Sure.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Jonathan Arnold with Deutsche Bank.
Jonathan Arnold:
Hi, good morning guys.
Chris Crane:
Good morning.
Jack Thayer:
Good morning. Just a quick one on a similar topic. Does the projection you show for ExGen net debt to EBITDA stepping down to 2.3 by 2018, how much of your free cash flow are you assuming you are going to reinvest? Or is all of it just rolling into the net debt calculation in that upper slide?
Chris Crane:
Jonathan, the major drivers of that are we have a $700 million maturity in 2017 that we pay down. We pay down about $1.2 billion of CP and then a growing cash position, which ultimately takes you from that 3.2 down to 2.3 times.
Jonathan Arnold:
So is it fair to say the 3.2 of free cash flow is kind of all rolled into the debt projection or not entirely?
Chris Crane:
It's rolled into the debt projection. It's financing or funding the dividend increase. It's basically insulating the balance sheet to a very strong position.
Jonathan Arnold:
Great. That was my other things got asked, so thank you very much.
Chris Crane:
Thank you.
Operator:
And your next question comes from Praful Mehta with Citigroup.
Praful Mehta:
Hi guys.
Chris Crane:
Good morning.
Praful Mehta:
Actually going back to this debt question at ExGen, I just want to understand given the goal is to harvest cash from ExGen as you've pointed out and to reinvest that cash, and we've talked about the lifetime of assets for the nuclear as well, is there a level of just debt, as in currently the debt balances let's say $9 billion, is there a level of debt that you see if the right debt grows that number that you see at ExGen, is it between the 2018, 2019 time frame? Are you targeting a certain number?
Jack Thayer:
We're retiring about $3.6 billion over the next five years at ExGen. And I think that provides us, rather than targeting a specific number I think more importantly it provides us with a considerable amount of flexibility and insulation and allows us to position from a point of strength our merchant fleet to compete on a long-term basis. It's clearly differentiated from the balance sheets of some of our competition. And we think that that will be a competitive advantage as we proceed through the coming years.
Praful Mehta:
Got you. Thank you. And then secondly in terms of the dividend, if the Pepco transaction weren't to close as you grow your dividend by the 2.5% as you've talked about, how are you looking at the payout ratio relative to just the utility earnings by 2018 and is there a target level that you're comfortable with in terms of payout relative to just utility earnings?
Jack Thayer:
So from a dividend standpoint, in effect what we do is we set a minimum from a payout ratio at the utilities, but we've got a lot of flexibility in how we can fund that growth. So rather than targeting a specific payout ratio in aggregate what we're really looking at is a minimum payout ratio at the utilities of 65% to 70%. And then we look at where best to fund the dividend as well as fund the investment in the utilities to grow the regulated earnings stream of the company at 7% to 9%.
Praful Mehta:
Got you. So there is an area where the payout from just the utility business or I guess the total payout relative to the utility earnings could go higher than the 70% if in case the Pepco transaction doesn't close?
Chris Crane:
That's a possibility. But if you look at, go back to what Jack said, a payout ratio of 65% to 70% by 2018 theoretically with our earnings profile, the utilities would cover that dividend. And that's a theoretic position we wanted to be in because we need to make decisions on further capital infusions for necessary projects to drive customer satisfaction and reliability.
Praful Mehta:
Got you. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Barbara Chapman with BNP.
Barbara Chapman:
Hi.
Jack Thayer:
Hey, Barbara.
Barbara Chapman:
How are you guys doing?
Jack Thayer:
Good.
Barbara Chapman:
Good. If somebody could speak to your sources and uses slide on 27 please and help answer a couple of questions. One, the issuance needed at Baltimore Gas & Electric just seems larger than what we've dealt with. So I'm just kind of curious what's going on there as far as an investment standpoint. But also on the corporate issuance, it doesn't appear there is a placeholder for the reissuance of the debt that was not exchanged and therefore called last year. So if you could explain if the Potomac merger goes through are we done now with the permanent debt financing for that?
Jack Thayer:
So Barbara, let me start with your second question first. This is on a standalone basis, so you'll note under the debt retirements that we have a further $1.875 billion of retirements here. If PHI goes through then clearly we would look to fill the gap of what we called during the fourth quarter of 2015 through a further financing at the holding company and on a pro forma basis, this sources and uses table would show the impact of that. With respect to BGE, we’re retiring $300 million there. We’re issuing $750 million, so the net $450 million you’ll recall we have a significant gas program there where we are hardening and replacing infrastructure within our gas utility as well as we have significant investments in reliability on the distribution and transmission side.
Barbara Chapman:
Okay. So we are back – we’re still on the original thought that closing Potomac you will be out with to refinance what had to be called then?
Jack Thayer:
Absolutely.
Barbara Chapman:
Okay, because it’s confusing the way this is written on that issue. Okay.
Jack Thayer:
And then Barbara, just the difference this time obviously is we would issue on the other side of the transaction completing. So we have sources of funding that we can use to bridge. And then we would do a large holdco issuance to replace that short-term financing.
Barbara Chapman:A - Jack Thayer:
Q - Barbara Chapman:
And your final question comes from the line of Shahriar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.
A - Chris Crane:
And your final question comes from the line of Shahriar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.
A - Darryl Bradford:
And your final question comes from the line of Shahriar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.
Q - Barbara Chapman:
And your final question comes from the line of Shahriar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.
A - Darryl Bradford:
And your final question comes from the line of Shahriar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.
Q - Barbara Chapman:
And your final question comes from the line of Shahriar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.
Operator:
And your final question comes from the line of Shahriar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Good morning, everyone.
A - Darryl Bradford:
Shahriar Pourreza:
So just looking at slide 8, is there a scenario that could essentially see some of your ratios including your debt to EBITDA essentially south of 2.3 especially if we continue in a sort of a prolonged low gas price environment?
Jack Thayer:
Q - Shahriar Pourreza:
Okay, that's helpful. And then just on the dividend policy, when you think about your second leg of growth, should we assume like step functions to get you closer to what your consolidated growth is or should we assume maybe another large increase post-2018?
Chris Crane:
So, we would analyze the best shareholder capital return policy. We'd be looking at are there further investments that can be made that create stronger and continuing growth in our investment in the regulated utilities. But it will be analyzed and as I said we theoretically hit a target of a payout in 2018. We will take into consideration the best uses of capital allocation at that point and we would anticipate some growth continuing after 2018. There's a lot of infrastructure and technology advancements that are coming along that will benefit the customers and benefit reliability and drive much more productivity within our workforce. So it's something that we'll look at and we're heading in the right direction.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Excellent, excellent. And just one last question. Just around maybe you could touch on the New York Clean Energy Fund that's being proposed, sort of the outlook for Ginna post the RSSA and then is there any impact to the put option with EDF?
Chris Crane:
I will let Joe Dominguez cover this.
Joe Dominguez:
Sure. Good morning. As Chris said at the top of the call, it's not the Clean Energy Fund but it's a zero-emission credit program that benefits nuclear. As Chris said at the top of the call, it's been a constructive development for us in New York. We still have quite a ways to go. But as a threshold political matter, having a governor with the prominence of Governor Cuomo step forward and propose to compensate nuclear fairly to keep it in business is important. If we get the details right I would go so far as to say it's kind of a watershed event for the industry. But we don't have the compensation details sorted out yet. The RSSA at Clinton will expire in March 2017, so practically speaking we need to see the details for the New York program this year. Once we see those details obviously it could provide incremental revenue that would factor into the put if that put in fact occurs. But we don't have important details right now on the level of compensation or how the procurement mechanism would work. So it's all speculative until we do the work over the next three or four months and nail this down.
Chris Crane:
In my conversations with the leadership at EDF, they are very comfortable with our operations on the nuclear side and in this market environment they are not looking at exercising the put at this time. So we will continue to work on the regulatory side and drive strong operational performance. And we have a little time on Ginna to the end of the RSSA into 2017, and like Joe said we've got a very supportive administration that recognizes the clean benefits of nuclear and that's really appreciated.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Congrats on the results.
Chris Crane:
Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Francis Idehen - VP, IR Christopher Crane - President and CEO Joseph Nigro - EVP and CEO Jonathan Thayer - CFO and SEVP Darryl Bradford - EVP and General Counsel
Analysts:
Dan Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities Steven Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey
Operator:
Good morning. My name is Dushyanta and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to the Q3 2015 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]. Thank you, I will now turn the conference over to Francis Idehen. Please go ahead.
Francis Idehen:
Thank you Dushyanta. Good morning everyone and thank you for joining our third quarter 2015 earnings call. Leading the call today are Chris Crane, Exelon's President and Chief Executive Officer; Joe Nigro, CEO of Constellation; and Jack Thayer, Chief Financial Officer. We are joined by other members of Exelon's senior management team, who will be available to answer your questions following our prepared remarks. We issued our earnings release this morning along with the presentation, each of which can be found in the Investor Relations section of Exelon's website. The earnings release and other matters which we discuss during today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ from our forward-looking statements based on factors and assumptions discussed in today's material, comments made during this call, and in the risk factors section on the 10-K which we filed in February, as well as in the earnings release and the 10-Q, which we expect to file later today. Please refer to the 10-K, today's 8-K and 10-Q, and Exelon's other filings for a discussion of factors that may cause results to differ from management's projections, forecasts and expectations. Today's presentation also includes references to adjusted operating earnings and other non-GAAP measures. Please refer to the information contained in the appendix of our presentation and our earnings release for a reconciliation between the non-GAAP measures to the nearest equivalent GAAP measures. We've scheduled one hour for today's call. I'll now turn the call over to Chris Crane, Exelon's CEO.
Christopher Crane:
Good morning, everyone and thanks for joining us this morning. We're pleased to deliver another very strong and what's been a very good year for us thus far. First, I'll highlight our financial and operational performance and then I'll switch over to our key strategic objectives. On the financial front we're reporting operating earnings of $0.83 per share over 6% EPS growth versus the same period last year and above our guidance range. Despite the delays in closing PHI which I'll address further, we're still on track to deliver our best year of earnings since 2012. We are raising our guidance range to 240 to 260 and Jack will provide more details on the financial performance during his remarks. It's been a phenomenal year across our companies. At the utilities we're set to invest $3.7 billion this year and needed infrastructure and enhancements and grid reliability and resiliency modifications. Part of more than the $16 billion investment that's planned over the next five years. This includes our smart meter installation program which we now have completed nearly 5.5 million gas and electric installations across our operating companies. Our utilities will exceed $1 billion in net income in 2015, driven by industry leading operational performance with each utility achieving first quartile safety, first and second quartile safety results and ranking in first quartile in customer satisfaction. We reached the settlement at PECO in its recent rate case filing which follows the BGE recent unanimous rate case settlement in Maryland. This highlights how strong operational performance supports recovery and constructive regulatory environments. On the generation side of the business we had another solid quarter of operations performance. Nuclear capacity factor was 95.5, power dispatch match was 99%, renewable energy captures was 94.8%. We also had great execution in Constellation this quarter showing the value of our generation to lower matching strategy. And our ability to optimize our portfolio even during adverse market conditions in a way that contributes meaningfully to our earnings. The breadth of the consolation platform gives us multiple scales to market. We are the number one retail electric provider and well ahead of our nearest competitor. We serve nearly 200 kilowatt hours of wholesale and retail load and we are also a top 10 marketer of gas in the U.S. delivering 46 Bcf of gas daily. On both side of the company we continue to run the business at high levels of performance and the results are evident in this year’s earnings. Now I want to discuss three key initiatives we have been working on this year, capacity performance, the low carbon portfolio standard in the Pepco Holdings merger. Starting with capacity performance, PJM capacity performance design went at implementation this year’s auctions with constructive results. We are pleased with the outcome of the capacity auctions. The new penalty structural hold generators accountable reliability to the benefit of customers. For the 1819 auction we cleared a significant number of megawatts at higher price zones that in these prices exceeded at our own internal expectations. The transition auctions better reflect the value of the reliability of our nuclear units that they provide to the grid. Our next major initiative was getting a low power portfolio standard past. We came into the year advocating for a better market design in Illinois one that would level the playing field for nuclear energy as a key resource in the state. We worked hard to introduce the carbon standard earlier this year however the political situation in the state has made the budget the soul focus leaving little opportunity for progress on energy legislation. We are disappointed that we have not made a progress on this front however the overall outlook for the nuclear fleet has improved as a result of policy and market factors namely the constructive results of the capacity auction, the positive results from Illinois power agencies capacity procurement for 2016, the long term impact on the environmental protection agency’s new carbon reduction rules. As a result we have decided as announced to defer another year’s decision about the future quad [ph] having said that, the low carbon portfolio standard remains a good policy for Illinois and a priority for Illinois. On our last key initiative was the Pepco acquisition. Let me take time to share our perspective on where we're at with the deal. We are very excited we reached the settlement with the Government of the District of Colombia, the Office of People’s Council, the Office of the Attorney General and others in D.C. The settlement includes commitments to provide a substantially enhanced benefits to the consumer and businesses in the district, it includes bill credits, low income assistance and fewer and shorter outages, a clear greener D.C. and investment in local jobs in the local economy. The settlement package was specifically shaped to address the concerns articulated by the D.C. Public Service Commission in its August quarter. As you’ve seen we have improved the reliability and the customer satisfaction at BGE and see the benefits of those performance improvements reflected in regulatory outcomes. We look forward to the opportunity to do the same with the Pepco family of utilities. The deal remains an important strategic element to the future of excellent allowing us to shift our business mix to a more regulated and durable earning stream. We realize the deal has taken longer than expected and we know that is required patience for many parties especially our investors as we work to complete it. We received an order from the D.C. Public Service Commission two days ago that moves us in the right direction. The Commission granted our request to reopen the record and consider the settlement in the existing doc, a schedule that was set that is in line with our proposed timeline. And the commission is committed to consider the settlement in a fashion that is open, transparent and fair. We appreciate the commission’s commitment to ruling on the merger in a timely manner and we ask for your support as we get this across the finish line. It has been a busy year and we've accomplished a lot and there is a lot left to be done. In particular we're embarking on a large scale cost management initiative. We'll provide more details at the EEI financial conference. We are pleased with the performance we've delivered for the shareholders this year despite the significant market and regulatory headwinds as we always were working hard to serve our customers and the communities that where we serve better. I'll now turn the call over to Joe, who will discuss the markets.
Joseph Nigro:
Thank you, Chris and good morning everyone. The Constellation business had another strong quarter outperforming our targets. Our portfolio management team performed very well and as Chris mentioned our retail and wholesale business is having a very strong year. In addition, our core strategy of matching our generation fleet with our load business continues to provide significant value for our shareholders. It has been paying off across the volatility and price spectrum. We have captured higher prices for our generation during periods of extreme weather while managing our load obligations and we've captured higher margins during low volatility period like this summer as we've realized lower cost to serve our customers. It also provides us with an important channel to market for our hedging activities which is important in times of low liquidity and in places where there is not an active market. Our past results and our current hedge disclosure show that our business can drive in either market environment and provide a great deal of value to the enterprise. My comments today will focus on power and gas markets during the quarter and our fundamental view. The recent PJM capacity performance auction and our hedge disclosures in hedging activity. Turning to the power markets on slide four. NiHub remains undervalued even independent of gas prices. PJM West price is more fairly valued when accounting for the new generation underdevelopment and expected in the East. Our fundamental view of power prices remained unchanged in addition we especially see upside in the non-winter months and during off peak hours. The difference between our fundamental view and the near term forward market prices of NiHub is primarily driven by changes in dispatch stat [ph]. Additionally fuel and coal markets are in contango while power is backwardated which is unusual. We think this is also contributing to lower prices in our views with support. During this summer, the impacts of a change in the stack were massed across the power pool because we did not see the peak loads that were expected and delivered natural gas prices were extremely low. While we saw price rebates [ph] continue to deliver high, the absolute price was driven lower by steel price [ph]. If we extended this picture on this slide further out in the curve you would see an even greater disconnect between the forward curve and our fundamental view driven mostly by a lack of liquidity. This lack of liquidity at NiHub is in most years and we are seeing it in West Southern 2019 and beyond in particular. Because it is lack of liquidity our hedging activity is mostly continued to be down for our load business and not over the calendar markets. We continue to align our hedging strategy with our views of the market and in 2017 remain behind ratable with 6% to 9% of power exposure. We are even further behind ratable in the Midwest with power exposure 17% to 20%. This strategy exposes us to the significant upside we still see in that market. While partially protecting us for many further degradation of natural gas prices through our cross commodity hedging. Before turning to the hedge disclosure itself, I'd like to touch on the recent PJM capacity auctions. Chris covered the results of the auction a few minutes ago. So I'll focus on the key takeaways from the auction. The biggest impact was getting behavior. In the 1819 base residual auction and the transition auction we saw market participants bidding in a more disciplined manner and recognizing the risks with penalties for non-performance. In addition about half the new builds cleared versus what we saw in the 1718 auction. And finally, the vast majority of demand response clearly the base product which may have read through value as PJM transitions to 100% capacity for performance product in two years. As I mentioned earlier our load business remain solid. Our originations have been strong and our generation to load matching strategy has worked well throughout the year. You can see the impact of this strategy throughout the gross margin disclosures. In 2015 we have a net $200 million increase in total gross margins since the end of the second quarter. We started the third quarter with a $100 million power new business target remaining for the year. We had strong performance during the quarter executing 200 million in power new business with the majority realized in the quarter. As a result of this performance we raised our power new business target by a $150 million resulting in only $50 million of power new business to go from the fourth quarter. Our performance was driven by our generation to load matching strategy including a load across to serve our load across the portfolio and our position management activity showed by through the backstop of our generation. As an example [indiscernible] experience quite a bit heat in early August and we saw the reserve margins in ERCOT come in as much as 10% lower than projected on those days. Spot prices increased and we benefited in capturing value from this move. As a result, we are also seeing upward movement in ERCOT pricing in the forward curve. In 2016, the impact of capacity performance auction increased total gross margin by $150 million this was partially offset by market price decline net of hedges of 50 million. During the quarter we executed on a $150 million of new business and are raising our 2016 power new business target by $200 million to $500 million total remaining. This compares to a $400 million new business target to go for 2015 at the same point last year. We are confident we can make this new target next year given our performance this year and the addition of the Integrys acquisition. Our total gross margin increased by 200 million to $7.8 billion. Capacity performance results added 300 million to total gross margin which was partially offset by a $100 million decrease due to the impact of lower prices on our open generation net of hedging. During the quarter we executed $100 million in power new business. We are confident that we have the right hedging strategies to capture the upside we see coming in the market and we have proven that our generation to load matching strategy brings value in both low the high volatility environments. I'll now turn it over to Jack to discuss the financial results for the quarter.
Jonathan Thayer:
Thank you, Joe, and good morning, everyone. As Chris and Joe stated we had another strong quarter financially and operationally. My remarks will focus on our financial results for the quarter, our full year guidance range, and provide an update on our cash outlook for 2015. Starting with our third quarter results on slide six, Exelon delivered earnings of $0.83 per share exceeding our guidance range by $0.08. This compares to $0.78 per share for the third quarter of 2014. Exelon's Utilities delivered combined earnings of $0.33 per share outperforming the third quarter of last year by $0.04. During the quarter, we saw favorable weather at both PECO and ComEd. Cooling degree days were up 30% from the prior year and 28% above normal in Southeastern Pennsylvania and up 18% from the prior year and 3% above normal in Northern Illinois. Distribution revenues at both ComEd and BGE were higher quarter-over-quarter reflecting the impacts of increased capital investment and higher rates respectively. On September 10th, PECO reached a settlement on its rate case filing. They agreed upon revenue requirement increase of $127 million represent 67% of the original proposal. The Pennsylvania PUCs decision is expected in December of this year with rates going into effect on January 1, 2016. The Pennsylvania PUC recently approved the new system 2020 plan which will lead to an additional $275 million being invested during the next five years to install advanced equipment and reinforce the local electric system making it more weather resistant and less vulnerable to storm damage. An order on commence annual formula rate filing is expected to issue by the ICC in early to mid-December. As a reminder ComEd requested a revenue decrease of $55 million in its current filing. This reduction reflects the continued focus on cost management and operational efficiencies that are being realized from a stronger more reliable grade with fewer outages. More detail on each of these rate cases can be found in the appendix on slides 19 through 21. Turning to slide [ph] generation, it had another strong quarter delivering earnings of $0.55 per share, $0.05 higher than the same period last year. As Joe mentioned, our generation to load matching strategy continues to provide value for our business and our shareholders. We benefited from a lower comp to serve both our retail and wholesale customers and had another strong quarter of performance from our portfolio management team. In addition, compared to the third quarter of 2014, we had a positive contribution from the Integrys acquisition. These positive factors were partially offset by realized Nuclear Decommissioning Trust fund losses in 2015 as compared to gains in 2014 and the impacts of the divestitures of certain generating assets in 2014. Last week, we filed a settlement agreement with New York PSC and FERC in regards to our Guinea [ph] facility. The new agreement shortens the RSSA period by 18 months includes more market based revenue and requires that any expansion must be justified by a study. The settlement is still subject to approval by both the FERC and the New York PSC. While we are pleased with the negotiated RSSA will allow Guinea [ph] continue to powering the grid in the local economy until 2017 it's only a temporary solution to a long-term problem. Single unit nuclear facilities like Guinea [ph] faced significant economic challenges brought on by four market conditions and a lack of energy policies that properly value the clean and reliable energy that nuclear provides. More detail on the quarter-over-quarter drivers for each operating company to be found on slide 17 and 18 in the appendix. As Chris mentioned, we are raising our full year guidance range for earnings to $2.40 to $2.60 per share. At the beginning of the year, we provided a standalone guidance range of $2.25 to $2.55 per share. We narrow the range on our second quarter earnings call to $2.35 to $2.55. This guidance range included the impacts of the debt and share dilution from the PHI merger and assume that the merger would close during the third quarter. Since the merger did not close, we have $0.13 of earnings drag from the interest expense and share dilution. Without this drag, we would have expected full year earnings to exceed the top end of our new guidance range of $2.40 to $2.60 per share due to strong performance of both the Utilities and Constellation this year. Consistent with our past practice, our guidance range does not include the impact of an extension of bonus depreciation which we would expect to be around $0.08 decrease per share. Nonetheless, we are comfortable that we will still be in the guidance range even if bonus depreciation were to be extended. Turning back to Pepco for a minute. We will need our original deal case accretion of $0.15 to $0.20. However, it will be push back until 2019. In addition, we expect the impacts in the merger to be neutral in 2017 and $0.07 to $0.12 accretive in 2018. These changes are primarily due to the delay in closing the merger, the consequent updates to PHI’s business plan as a result of this delay and due to the meaningful improvement in Exelon's business plan. The deal remains critically important to our long-term strategy. Slide seven provides an update on our cash flow expectations for this year. We project cash from operations of $6.8 billion across our businesses and free cash flow of $925 million at generation in 2015. As you can see our projected earnings cash balance is roughly $9.6 billion for the year, most of this is related to the fact that we’ve raised the funds necessary to close the Pepco merger which as you know has been delayed. $2.5 billion of the debt was subject to redemption if the merger does not close by December 31st. Yesterday we announced the debt exchange offering to amend the mandatory redemption date in those notes. This action will minimize our refinancing risk and allow our bondholders to stay invested in the bonds and year end approaches. In closing, I want to reiterate that our company can perform well in a rising interest rate environment which is typically a headwind for our industry. This is because our earnings are positively correlated to interest rates due to both comments ROE being directly tied to the 30 year treasury rate as well as the discounting of our pension liabilities. As a general rule, every 25 basis point increase in interest rates equates to roughly $0.02 of consolidated earnings uplift related to ComEd in the pension. Thank you and we will now open the line for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Dan Eggers with Credit Suisse.
Dan Eggers:
Just Jack taking a before you left off on the Pepco accretion numbers. You guys are going to have $0.13 of drag because of the equity and the debt associated with the acquisition. If we look at '16, how much of that $0.13 gets offset I guess on a year-over-year base if we're to step forward one year.
Jonathan Thayer:
Dan we would anticipate that the transaction would close towards the end of the first quarter and the transaction will be modestly diluted to --.
Dan Eggers:
Including $0.13 or net of the $0.13?
Jonathan Thayer:
Including the impact of the shares and debt issue, so it inclusive of that $0.13 expense associated with interest and increase shares.
Dan Eggers:
Okay. If I go I guess next question. On the Constellation side with the retail margins coming through. Can you guys give us some context is that how much contribution is coming from that business or where you guys sit in that historic margin range of $2 to $4 megawatt hour. Just so we can see a little better from the outside what's going on there.
Joseph Nigro:
Yeah hi Dan, this is Joe. Good morning. In the let's start with the second question first. We are still well within that $2 to $4 range. It's above the $2 value and it's below the $4. Our commercial industrial originations remained solid and we're happy with that. As for the margin, I think about it more on a total portfolio basis, because there is retail margins of one component of it. The second thing is we serve a lot of wholesale polar load as well which have a different margin structure associated with them. But the money that we made in the third quarter which really driven by three key things. The first thing is that if you go back and look at our hedge disclosure again for the second quarter, we were effectively 100% hedged across our book for the year. And so we set up with the short buys recognized we had the backstop of our own generation to serve loaded market guide volatile. The second thing is we cost it our loads when we sold them the risk premiums were much higher than what is realized in the spot market primarily driven by the low, low gas prices during the third quarter. And then the last thing is we took an opportunity when the prices dropped to hair cut during the summer to materially get our position in longer as we walked into August and then we saw some volatility. So we capitalized them that as well. So it's really been three components that drove the value.
Dan Eggers:
Okay, got it. And I guess last question you maybe Chris or Jack is just on the decision to differ the nuclear plant closures. How much earnings drag should we assume is coming off those three plants in 2016? And given the delays in making decision what would actually get you guys the point to decide which higher in any of these assets that are making money.
Christopher Crane:
So let's first talk about PJM and Quad and Byron. The CP auctions substantially changed the profile of cash flow and earnings. We have still need on the low power portfolio standard to cement the long-term viability of these assets. But Quad is just marginal flat on free cash flow. It just slightly dilutive on earnings. And if we can move the CP along, it will greatly improve that. Byron is in a little bit better shape based off of CP and we'll continue to watch that closely. On Clinton we were prepared with no action taken on the capacity market to go forward with the retirement. We have seen a commitment and action at MISO to evaluate zone 4 as its only competitive, real competitive market to evaluate the redesign of the capacity construct that would adequately compensate the generators for the investors they are making. We've also seen positive signals from the state of Illinois by evaluating and starting workshops to evaluate the problem statement and workshops to look at potential fixes on Zone 4 in Southern Illinois. So now that we've seen some potential for improvement, we're willing to go another year. At unit Clinton is one of our newest units in the fleet is got over 30 years of potential run left, with support coming from MISO and understanding the problem statement at - and the state now considering what should be done in the southern part to ensure reliability. We saw that as an enough promise to extent it one more year to see what we can do in 2016.
Dan Eggers:
So that is your view that you'll have some sort of market reform in '16 I guess in the first half of '16 in MISO for those plants look viable or is it just the action that will get you comfortable even if it's not resolve.
Jonathan Thayer:
We want to resolve in 2016. I don't know if it's going to be in the first half but it has got to get resolved in 2016 between the lower power portfolio standard and the capacity construct in MISO it is going to be imperative for us to go forward. Quad in the subsequent auction is cleared 16-17, 17-18. So we've got a blanket on that for couple of years but it did not cleared 18-19.
Dan Eggers:
Okay, got it. Thank you guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research.
Steven Fleishman:
Yeah, hi. Good morning. Couple of questions just on the [indiscernible] recent update that you gave, is the kind of push out of the accretion or just due to delays and closing and just more time to get the cost cuts and through and I guess maybe any rate relief through like the rate free is that you have. Is that the main difference?
Jonathan Thayer:
That's part of it and the other part is our approved from the time we announced the merger and from when we talked about the LRP last year - last quarter excuse me, our position is improved. So there is a little bit of we're better than we were. And the delays is the other part of it.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay. And then I guess just on the nuclear decision. And I would just wondered there is a little bit of kind of risk okay, you were crying wolf on this, because you talked about this for a while then you're not shutting this year. Just how is the risk of the shutting like real in '16 or what is different in terms of making this decision now. I mean gas prices are also a lot lower too.
Christopher Crane:
Yes. So we opened the books to key stakeholders in the stake. They could see the red [ph] that was being produced by these assets. We were able to work with PJM and the other stakeholders on CP that gave us the improvement that we're not seeing the level of red [ph] or in some cases neutral on the assets. These are long lived assets and their big decisions to make we're not crying wolf we've actually got results. And if we can continue to get results these units will become profitable and be able to stay within the fleet. And the contributions they make to the communities that they serve. So this is not as backing down on a decision this is as making progress on a path that we define clearly at the beginning of this. If we cannot see progress we would shut the units down. We have seen progress and we continue to believe there is potential for more progress. If we do not see that progress, we will shut the plants down.
Steven Fleishman:
Great. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Greg Gordon with Evercore ISI.
Greg Gordon:
Thanks. A few questions, first back on [indiscernible] I have the good fortune of having follow them before you. You announced the acquisition and I have been keeping my model up to date. And it actually looks to me like their financial situation is materially degraded over the year or so year and half or so and through the time that’s been caused by this delay they haven’t gotten rate increases, they've got massive operating cost increase they’ve added several hundred basis points of leverage to their balance sheet I mean they don’t look like they are a viable entity in their current form if this deal doesn’t close. So, it’s part of this problem with the delay and the accretion that you’re coming from a deeper hole?
Christopher Crane:
If the delay in filing the rate cases has contributed to PHI’s position that they’re in now. They publicly spoke about what their future would be on a stand. We believe that once we are able to fold them into the fleet and drive the synergies and help support them with the operational performance that will give the environment for a fair regulatory recovery going forward. As we’ve seen with BGE.
Greg Gordon:
Yeah. I mean certainly as I have observed on a standalone basis they’ve just seen a massive escalation in cost which I am sure you’d be able to control much more readily given Exelon’s playbook that should lead to a necessity from lower ask in terms of rate increases to get back to a decent return more to think correct?
Christopher Crane:
Yeah. I mean that’s part of the thesis in our filings and what we’re able to do with the settlements we can drive the synergies with our platform that will reduce the request for needed scope of rate increases.
Greg Gordon:
Okay. Thanks. Going back to the $0.08 to impact to earnings from bonus depreciation Jack that’s on this year’s earnings and is that sort of lower rate base net of capital allocation and can you just walk us through how you do that calculation?
Jonathan Thayer:
Sure. That would be Greg on 2015. The $0.08 would hit $0.07 at ExGen, it would hit a penny at ComEd importantly it would also improve our cash flow by $650 million and at ComEd we would see the impact of bonus depreciation would cause a $215 million reduction in ComEd's rate base.
Greg Gordon:
So, what do you assume, you do with the 650 million in cash just becomes goes at the corporate general bucket or do you assume a specific offset in the denominator through much that reduction if you just less that, is that the answer?
Jonathan Thayer:
Effectively, we would reinvest that back into the utilities part of our business to fund our capital plan.
Greg Gordon:
Okay. And why is there such a big impact on ExGen?
Jonathan Thayer:
It’s the domestic production credits, there is a limit or they goes into place and as those bonus depreciation hits that limitations goes into effect and meaningfully hits our ExGen part of our business with somewhat unique with our exposure to this within the industry.
Greg Gordon:
That hits your ability to consume production tax credits?
Jonathan Thayer:
It’s more, Tom do you want to - had a tax.
Unidentified Corporate Participant:
As a generator, we’re entitled to claim so called domestic production activities in - which has completed as a percentage of generation income so as bonus appreciation reduces that income or therefore reduces the related...
Greg Gordon:
Okay, got it. Thank you guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jonathan Arnold with Deutsche Bank.
Jonathan Arnold:
Good morning guys.
Jonathan Thayer:
Good morning John.
Jonathan Arnold:
Quick question. I noticed that in your recast of the ‘15 guidance those now you obviously have the holdco drag which I apologize I missed this guessing in part of the financing on Pepco. But what would be we - that ride of - what’s the reasonable run rate of holdco expense as we look for beyond this year?
Jonathan Thayer:
So, Jonathan, we commented in our earning script that the equity and debt financing associated with PHI because we didn’t close as anticipated in Q3 and would be a $0.13 drag on the year. So, our guidance contemplates that drag and incorporates that obviously. Prospectively, we would anticipate closing the transaction towards the end of the first quarter of 2016, we would get the benefit of Pepco’s earnings and the pro forma would be modestly diluted for ‘16 until we as Chris mentioned execute the rate cases and grow the revenues and earnings at PHI over the course of the next several years.
Jonathan Arnold:
And I had the comment about the $0.13 diluted that was a ‘15 comment or was it ‘16?
Jonathan Thayer:
No that’s a ‘15 comment Jonathan. 15, sorry 2015 drag in 2016 we have the benefits of PHI for three quarters.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay, got it. So once you close will you start on that the holdco financing for that deal kind of into the segment or do you think you’ll still have a discrete pair of drag that might be larger going forward?
Jonathan Thayer:
We will incorporate the shares issued or we have the shares issued the 893 million shares in the share counts that will give us advisory for all of our business units and then we have the corporate moving company or holding company that will get allocated.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay so I should once we get into ‘17 let’s say this parent segment the best guess is kind of flat?
Jonathan Thayer:
Starting in ‘17 we’ll start to see increase in going into ‘18 and very strong at the end of the LRP period.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay, thank you guys. And then could I ask one other thing we saw this Maryland A.G. filing in the second quarter any thoughts around timing how concerned are you it might be Maryland that ends up throwing the rents in the work?
Jonathan Thayer:
Darryl you want to cover that?
Darryl Bradford:
Yeah Jonathan, this is Darryl Bradford. We have - the attorney general asked for leads to file [indiscernible] brief we’re going to following on opposition today along with the Maryland Public Service Commission, why there'd be attorney general allow to file in that we feel that the Maryland decision is a very strong one the parties that are appealing and have a very heavy burden, go for its permit there will be a hearing in the Circuit Court on December 8 on this and we believe that decision was very solid and we believe that it will be of help.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay great. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Hue Wynn [ph] with Bernstein.
Unidentified Analyst:
Thank you. I was wondering if you could provide any high level perspectives on the cost cutting initiative that you had mentioned in the scripted remarks.
Christopher Crane:
Yeah we’re going to be putting out the details at EEI but we’ve looked at our corporate center BSC business service cost, we’re looking at a IT cost in some of the work that we can do there and also at the generating company so we should be able to provide more detail on that or we will be providing more detail in the year.
Unidentified Analyst:
All right. Thanks so much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with UBS.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Good morning.
Christopher Crane:
Morning.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
So first question going back to Pepco if you will, the 2019’s figure what’s embedded in there is that simply just closing on the transaction, executing status quo or are there rate case assumptions etcetera I was just trying to get a little bit more sense that far out in terms of what’s baked in?
Jonathan Thayer:
So there are rate case assumptions that we’re taking straight out of PHI’s RP. Once we close we’ll be able to get deeper into those numbers in the drivers but it is based up of their assumptions on what they’ll recover in rate cases and their assumption on cost in cost controls going forward. So we will be able to do more on that and provide updates when we get into the detail at the close.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. To a clarification it might be a little tricky first earned ROE’s approximately I mean is it fair to say what I’ll let you comment on that on the Pepco side and then separately as you think about this transaction you’ve got I suppose the cost update coming at EEI, is there some fungibility between those two as well?
Jonathan Thayer:
I'm sure there is because you are going to have the Massachusetts model will dictate the over hedge down to the specific company. So there should be with this improvement minor adjustments. But it would too early to speculate now on where there goes. On the ROE's the calculation would be straight out of the LRP that PHI is operating under now their LRP that will have to be updated post close with our assumptions of not only the cost reductions but the operational improvements.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Great. Last little question here. What is the creaks you guys filed an interesting 8-K recently regarding must offer requirements in 2019. Is there and ability to clip participate for a partial year and toward the subsequent capacity auction at all?
Jonathan Thayer:
[Indiscernible] will take that.
Unidentified Corporate Participant:
Hey, Julien, it's Joe [ph]. Julien we've looked at that that would be very difficult especially with the new CP environment. So you've seen our most [indiscernible] we don't intend to participate with that.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. Just wanted to clarify. Thank you.
Operator:
Your final question comes from Ali Agha with SunTrust.
Ali Agha:
Thank you. Good morning.
Christopher Crane:
Good morning.
Ali Agha:
First question, just wanted to clarify the $0.08 beep [ph] that you had in the third quarter above the high end of your guidance, was that all coming from the stronger performance at Constellation or what was the main driver there?
Jonathan Thayer:
Ali it was both across the utility business as well as that constellation and nextgen part of our businesses. So we had strong weather and operating results at both PECO and ComEd and then we had good operating results at PJE and as Joe articulated in his discussion we had strong performance from the generating part of our company.
Ali Agha:
Okay. Second question, this disconnect in pricing between your fundamental view of NiHub and the forwards we've been hearing that for the last several quarters now and this [Inaudible] happen during that - what is your opinion is going to trigger that to coincide? Is there just a search in demand, extreme weather, I mean like I said we've been seeing this for a while, what do you think will change that?
Joseph Nigro:
Good morning. I think - it’s Joe. I think there is a couple of things. But I think the biggest thing is there is a complete lack of liquidity in NiHub and especially when you get beyond like 2015-17 period. We think that when - with normal weather in 2016 we think NiHub is somewhat fairly value. But as you move out on the curve it gets materially undervalued and that's driven mostly by the lack of liquidity. If you look at you have gas prices that are in a contango market and M3 is relevant because it's across the [indiscernible] a lot of hours setting price using M3 gas. So if you look at like 2016 to 2018 you've got $0.25 of value on the curve just associated - $0.40 of value associated with Henry hub prices and another $0.20 to $0.25 with M3. There are $0.65 a value in the gas curve and yet the power prices at NiHub today are $0.25 back warding. In addition closely contango as well so that part of it, the coal [ph] retirements part of it. We have seen heat rate expansion even at these low gas prices, we think some of that has been massed quite frankly by the fuel being so low. But when you put all that together in the complete lack of liquidity that's where we coming up with the driver of higher prices in the future.
Ali Agha:
Understood. And the last question assuming these forward curve stay as they are and I know that at EEI you'll update your curves 18 to the mix as well. But when you look at - I mean you are showing us fairly flat margins 16 17, the cost saving that you are planning are they going to be strong enough so that just directionally GenCorp can a show a positive net income stream because depreciation another expansion are going up as well or are we still looking at flat to perhaps declining GenCorp profile given what the forward curves are telling us right now.
Jonathan Thayer:
Ali, its Jack. I know that there is a lot of interest in us engaging on the cost reduction topic before EEI. But I think it's probably better to align our disclosure around that cost reduction effort with our outlook for 16 17 and 18 hedge disclosures. You'll obviously see the significant benefit of CP in that period aligned with the benefits of cost reduction. So the story is positive, we'd ask for your patience in terms of transparency around that until EEI.
Christopher Crane:
The bottom line is we are seeing improvement over the LRP period.
Ali Agha:
Okay. So from an Exelon perspective just directionally you would as we stand here today 18 19 earnings with that going there should be higher than where we are in '15. Is that a fair statement?
Jonathan Thayer:
Yes.
Ali Agha:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Francis Idehen - Vice President-Investor Relations Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Joseph Nigro - Executive Vice President, Exelon; Chief Executive Officer, Constellation, Exelon Corp. Jonathan W. Thayer - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Executive VP Darryl M. Bradford - Executive Vice President & General Counsel
Analysts:
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI Steven Isaac Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC Dan L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker) Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC Christopher J. Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC
Operator:
Good morning. Thank you for standing by. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to the Exelon Corporation Quarter Two 2015 Earnings Conference Call. Your lines have been muted to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. Thank you. I'd now like to turn today's conference over to Francis Idehen. Thank you, you may begin.
Francis Idehen - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thank you, Ali. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining for our second quarter 2015 earnings conference call. Leading the call today are Chris Crane, Exelon's President and Chief Executive Officer; Joe Nigro, CEO of Constellation; and Jack Thayer, Chief Financial Officer. They are joined by other members of Exelon's senior management team, who will be available to answer your questions following our prepared remarks. We issued our earnings release this morning along with the presentation, each of which can be found in the Investor Relations section of Exelon's website. The earnings release and other matters which we discuss during today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ from our forward-looking statements based on factors and assumptions discussed in today's material, comments made during this call, and in the risk factors section on the 10-K which we filed in February, as well as in the earnings release and the 10-Q, which we expect to file later today. Please refer to the 10-K, today's 8-K and 10-Q, and Exelon's other filings for a discussion of factors that may cause the results to differ from management's projections, forecasts and expectations. Today's presentation also includes references to adjusted operating earnings and other non-GAAP measures. Please refer to the information contained in the appendix of our presentation and our earnings release for a reconciliation between the non-GAAP measures to the nearest equivalent GAAP measures. We've scheduled 45 minutes for today's call. I'll now turn the call over to Chris Crane, Exelon's CEO.
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Thanks, Francis, and good morning, everybody. Thanks for joining. We're pleased to report another strong quarter with our earnings coming in at $0.59 per share, surpassing our guidance of $0.45 to $0.55 per share. You'll hear more from Jack in a minute on the specifics, and Joe Nigro will also provide some color around the performance. We've seen a number of positive developments that affect various business this quarter. The two primary catalysts for us this year are the PHI acquisition and the capacity market auctions. We received approval from the merger since our last call in Maryland in May, and leaving D.C., Washington, D.C. as our only outstanding jurisdiction to close the merger, which we expect to hear from soon and we're looking forward to a positive outcome there. Upon closing the merger, our focus will shift to the integration of PHI Utilities into the Exelon Utilities to align our operations to better serve the PHI customers base. Another major catalyst is the capacity performance revisions that have been made. While we continue to believe that FERC came to the right conclusion, putting reliability at the center of its planning process to ensure that customers in the region are well served, we always were aware that DR and Energy Efficiency were in the 2018-2019 auction. The most recent change that allows DR and Energy Efficiency to provide – to participate in the transition auctions, we believe to be non-material to the outcome. We are disappointed in the delay, but we think that we'll be on the right track into recognize the value of our highly reliable fleet going forward. And we remain confident that the capacity construct is the best way to protect the grid as we await further clarification on the timing of these transition auctions. I think we're getting that in the last days. So, by the September timeframe, we should have clarity on the value proposition, along with the reliability measures being enacted. In Illinois, the legislative session ended without a resolution on the market redesign for the Low Carbon standard, the Low Carbon Portfolio standard. We were disappointed that we were not able to get this outcome before the session ended, but understand where the state is focused right now on its budget priorities. The nuclear plants provide significant value to the state and its economy, and it's mostly important to its consumers. Looking ahead, we have certain regulatory and operational triggers in September that require us to make some tough choices on the specific assets this fall, particularly in light of the continued pressure on the power markets. So we are continuing on with our disciplined plan on evaluating the assets and their likelihood to stay within the stack, and we'll bring that to closure with our decision in September. Despite these market challenges, we continue to find ways to create value in our Constellation business, which Joe is going to talk about shortly. Part of our resilience to the power market weakness is driven by our ability to capitalize on our generation to load strategy. And this quarter, we showed the benefit from the lower cost to serve load. And the – increasing our utility business has been able to reduce the overall volatility at the enterprise level and deliver growth. You can expect that even more to be true over time. Not only is it shifting our business mix with the acquisition of PHI, but it also, with our infrastructure improvement investments, we're investing $16 billion in our existing utilities over the next five years, which provides respectable growth rates, and roughly another $7 billion with the addition of PHI. I want to remind everybody that we can perform well even with a rising interest rate environment, which is typically a headwind in our industry. This is because our EPS is positively correlated to interest rates, due to both ComEd's formula rate and ROE being tied to the 30-year Treasury rate, as well as the discount of our pension – discounting the rates of our pension liability. Overall, we are positive the company is able to provide more stable and durable earnings streams for our shareholders with our operational expertise in driving performance across the enterprise. With that, I'll turn it over to Joe, who will discuss the markets. He's followed by Jack on the financial performance.
Joseph Nigro - Executive Vice President, Exelon; Chief Executive Officer, Constellation, Exelon Corp.:
Thank you, Chris. Good morning, everyone. The Constellation business has continued to perform well in 2015 as a result of our generation to load matching strategy. My comments today will address market events during the second quarter, and what they mean for our commercial business going forward, including our hedging strategy in our updated disclosures. Starting with slide four, the spot power markets in the second quarter have been defined by mild weather and lower natural gas prices, which drove the price in power considerably lower than in 2014 across all of PJM. The impact of low spot market conditions has carried through to the forward markets, with prices down approximately $0.45 per megawatt hour in 2016 and $1 per megawatt hour in 2017, at both PJM West Hub and NiHub since the end of the first quarter. The lack of liquidity in the forward markets has exacerbated the drops in power prices and heat rates, with the forward markets exhibiting volatile price moves on very little trading volumes for calendar 2017 and beyond, especially at NiHub. During the quarter, our hedging activities for 2016 to 2018 were executed through our retail and wholesale load businesses rather than on the over-the-counter market. Our fundamental view of power prices has not changed, but given the drop in market prices, there is a greater gap between the market and our fundamental view due to current natural gas prices, expected retirements, new generation resources, and load assumptions. Moving to slide five, I will discuss the forward market and its impacts on our hedging profile. During the second quarter we maintained our behind ratable strategy and increased our cross-commodity hedge position to increase exposure to power price upside. We have successfully used this behind ratable hedging strategy in the past when our view showed upside in the market. We are 4% to 5% behind ratable in 2016 and 2017, and 7% to 8% behind ratable if you will remove our cross-commodity hedges at NiHub. We are confident in our ability to adjust our hedging strategies to capitalize on our fundamental view. Turning to slide six, I will review our updated hedge disclosure and some key changes since the end of the first quarter. In 2015 we have a net $50 million increase to total gross margin since the end of the first quarter, driven primarily by strong performance and execution. We executed on $200 million of power new business and $50 million of non-power new business during the quarter. Based on 2015 performance to date and expectations for the full year, we have increased our power new business target by $50 million. Our generation to load strategy was successful last year during the extreme polar vortex conditions, and it's serving us well this year under weaker load and price conditions. It is further augmented by strong performance from our portfolio optimization activities and our Integrys acquisition. For 2016, we saw prices decrease across most regions, decreasing around $0.45 per megawatt-hour in both the Mid-Atlantic and the Midwest. This resulted in a decrease in our open gross margin of approximately $200 million, which was offset by our hedging activities. During the quarter we executed $100 million of power new business and $50 million of non-power new business, and are raising our power new business targets by $50 million additional due to commercial opportunities, for a gross margin increase of $50 million in 2016. For 2017, prices decreased by approximately $1 per megawatt hour in both the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest. This resulted in a decrease of $300 million in our open gross margins. Despite the drop in prices, our total gross margin is only down $50 million due to our hedged position and an increase in our power new business target of $100 million in case we have line of sight into additional commercial opportunities. Since the beginning of the year, prices have fallen due to mild weather, lower gas prices, lower load demand in the Midwest, and a lack of liquidity in the markets. Prices have fallen more in 2017 and beyond than in 2016. Although this weakness in the spot market has impacted forward markets, we are confident in our fundamental view of the gas and power markets and are positioning our portfolio to take advantage of this. Now I'll turn it over to Jack to review the full financial information for the quarter.
Jonathan W. Thayer - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Executive VP:
Thank you, Joe, and good morning, everyone. We had another strong quarter. My remarks will cover our financial results for the quarter, third quarter guidance range, and our cash outlook. Starting with our second quarter results on slide seven, Exelon exceeded our guidance range and delivered earnings of $0.59 per share. This compares to $0.51 per share for the second quarter of 2014. Exelon's Utilities delivered combined earnings of $0.25 per share and were flat to the second quarter of last year. During the quarter, we saw favorable weather at PECO and unfavorable weather at ComEd. Cooling degree days were up nearly 37% from the prior year and 47.4% above normal in Southeastern Pennsylvania, and down 34% from the prior year and 21.6% below normal in Northern Illinois. Distribution revenues at ComEd and BGE were higher quarter-over-quarter. In addition, BGE had a decrease in uncollectible accounts expense compared to the second quarter of 2014. Exelon Generation had another strong quarter, delivering earnings of $0.36 per share, $0.09 higher than the same period last year. As Joe mentioned, our generation to load matching strategy continues to prove effective. We benefited from a lower cost to serve both our retail and wholesale customers, and had strong performance from our portfolio management team. In addition, compared to the second quarter of 2014 we had fewer outage days at our nuclear plants, which had a positive contribution from the Integrys acquisition, higher realized nuclear decommissioning trust fund gains, and received additional benefits quarter-over-quarter from the cancellation of the DOE spent nuclear fee. These positive factors were partially offset by higher tax and interest expense. More detail on the quarter-over-quarter drivers for each operating company can be found on slides 18 and 19 in the appendix. For the third quarter, we are providing guidance of $0.65 to $0.75 per share. Accounting for the impact of the increased share count and the debt associated with the Pepco Holdings transaction, and assuming the transaction closes in the third quarter, we are narrowing our full-year guidance from $2.25 to $2.55 per share, to $2.35 to $2.55 per share. Our guidance does not assume that bonus depreciation is extended. Slide eight provides an update on our cash flow expectations for this year. We've simplified the format of our slide to provide a clearer view of our cash flow at each operating company, including explicitly showing free cash flow. We project cash from operations of $6.6 billion. We project free cash flow of $900 million at Generation in 2015. 80% of our total growth capital expenditures are being invested in our utilities over the next three years, which will provide stable earnings growth. In June we completed the debt portion of our financing for the Pepco transaction by issuing $4.2 billion in senior notes, with the majority of these proceeds being used to fund the transaction. Strong market demand allowed us to upsize the offering, enabling us to pull forward some future-planned corporate debt issuances. We issued across the tenor spectrum with an average maturity of approximately 14 years and an average weighted average coupon of 3.79%. Earlier this month we completed the settlement of the equity forward transaction. The combination of these financings allows us to close the merger quickly upon receiving approval from the D.C. Public Service Commission. Our balance sheet remains strong and gives us the ability to invest and grow our business. As a reminder, the appendix includes several schedules that will help you in your modeling efforts. Thank you, and we'll now open the line for questions.
Operator:
And our first question will come from the line of Greg Gordon with Evercore ISI.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Good morning.
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Hi, Greg.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Couple of questions. First, when you talk about commercial opportunities, in the context of your comfort level raising your guidance for power new business/to go, are we talking about sort of the inherent counter-cyclicality of the margins in that business in the low wholesale environment, i.e., are we moving closer off the $2 floor in margins and closer to the $4 sort of peak of the cycle margins that you see in that business historically, or is it simply new customers, more volumes than you had projected in either the gas or the electric business?
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Joe?
Joseph Nigro - Executive Vice President, Exelon; Chief Executive Officer, Constellation, Exelon Corp.:
Yeah, Greg. In this specific instance, specifically for 2016 where we're raising our power new business/to go by $50 million and 2017 by $100 million, it's really – it's not related to those load margins. It's more specifically related to some proprietary structured commercial opportunities that we have really solid line of sight into on the wholesale side of the business, quite frankly. To your point though, I think it's important to note we have raised our targets each – $50 million each quarter for 2015, for a total of $100 million so far year-to-date. And a lot of that has been driven by really three things. One is the monetization of loads that we sold at higher prices last year. So, we have seen increased value from that load-serving business, some of our optimization activities. And then we went in, as you saw from our disclosures last quarter, we went in with a short bias with a backstop of our own generation, and given the results of market prices in 2015 to date, that's performed well. We would only look to raise those targets, the power/to go targets or non-power/to go targets, if we have good line of sight into specific opportunities. And in this case, we do.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Okay. Follow-up to that. If these are fairly chunky opportunities and you win them, will we get a sort of a discrete disclosure or would that just – would we get – would you just update it on a quarterly basis as per your usual, moving from to go to, into the hedges?
Joseph Nigro - Executive Vice President, Exelon; Chief Executive Officer, Constellation, Exelon Corp.:
Yeah. Yeah. We'll disclose that when the negotiations are complete.
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
And Greg, it will be in the MD&A disclosure in our interview (19:24), when it occurs.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Okay, great. Second question. In light of economic conditions in Texas, most of your investors would probably rather see you pull the plug on this gas-fired project that you're pursuing. What gives you the confidence that the through-the-cycle economics of that investment are still worth going forward in this environment?
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
So as we said, we've got a very good deal on acquiring these assets on our brownfield site. Minimal infrastructure investment. They still have a double digit IRR with these market forwards. If you just projected we stay here for 10 years, and then plug the fundamentals in after, we're still at a double-digit IRR. This is a solid investment. These are going to be dispatched first. They're the highly efficient, air-cooled, and at the right price.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Concise answer. Thank you. Take care.
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
All right.
Operator:
And your next question will come from the line of Steve Fleishman, Wolfe Research.
Steven Isaac Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Yeah. Hi, good morning.
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Good morning.
Steven Isaac Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
First to Jack, clarification. So in the updated 2015 guidance, are you including some amount of POM, both the business and the financing costs? And if so, is it positive or negative within the year?
Jonathan W. Thayer - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Executive VP:
So Steve, we are including – we are including the equity and the debt associated with the PHI acquisition. So for share count purposes, that incorporates a weighted average share base of 892 million shares. It does assume the third quarter close of PHI. But there is a measure of dilution this year that's related to the increased share count, the debt, and as we pursue rate cases on PHI, improve their revenues and earnings, we'll see the accretion that we anticipate with that transaction in future periods.
Steven Isaac Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. So just to clarify, when you net for this short period into year-end, when you net POM revenue and the financing cost, it's actually – your numbers would have been higher in this guidance if you hadn't included that.
Jonathan W. Thayer - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Executive VP:
Modestly, Steve.
Steven Isaac Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. But then we'll get the...
Jonathan W. Thayer - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Executive VP:
It (22:02), but not materially so.
Steven Isaac Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
But the future accretion guidance that you gave, I think, at the last quarter, or recent commentary, that's still good for future years?
Jonathan W. Thayer - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Executive VP:
The impact on rate cases and the deferral of those rate cases modestly impacts the accretion, but we're still at the – as we disclosed at the last quarter, we're still at the sort of bottom end of the range in 2017 that we gave.
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
And so, it's 2018 to get to that – more to that midpoint of the run rate that we talked about.
Steven Isaac Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Right. But you said that – you clarified that, I think, the last call or so. That's not new. Okay.
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Yes. So, $0.15 in 2017, and you'll see us head to the upper end in 2018.
Steven Isaac Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. Second question is just with respect to the power views. I kind of feel like just, the last few calls you've been a little bit more mixed on your power views. You're a lot more bullish right now, at least, I guess, with respect to NiHub. Is that mainly just a fact that you had to pull back as of Q2 end, and so you're just more bullish because the starting price is lower, or are you more bullish even if the prices had stayed flat?
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
It's, the prices have gone lower. We're more bullish, they're non-sustainable at this level.
Joseph Nigro - Executive Vice President, Exelon; Chief Executive Officer, Constellation, Exelon Corp.:
Yeah. And, Steve, what I would say is, our view of the absolute value of power price hasn't changed quarter-over-quarter, and what's changed is we saw a material drop in the back end of the power curve and I'm talking to NiHub, but it's attributable to West Hub as well, but our upside is really baked at NiHub where we see material upside as you move out into that 2018, 2019 timeframe. We see upside as well in that 2016, 2017 period, and what's changed is the market has fallen so much, quarter-over-quarter; our absolute view of power price hasn't changed. So that spread has gone wider. And when we look at our fundamental models at NiHub, in particular, we see a lot of value that's still to be derived, and that's due to the changing dispatch stack and some of the other things that we've talked about previously.
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Talk about the lack of liquidity.
Joseph Nigro - Executive Vice President, Exelon; Chief Executive Officer, Constellation, Exelon Corp.:
Yeah, the liquidity piece of it is a big part of it, Steve. We had a $0.40 – approximately $0.40 a megawatt-hour drop in PJM, in West Hub and NiHub in calendar 2016. That's the most liquid period on the forward curve. When we've pulled data and we have access to and look at what's going on in the out-years, 2018, 2019, 2020 where we saw a material drop in prices, there is absolutely nothing trading at NiHub. There had been some few sporadic trades at West Hub, and you see the market set prices off of those trades. And our view is through time, that spread relationship between the West Hub and NiHub is going to collapse because of the retirements on the western side, the new builds on the eastern side, and that's why we think there is material upside. But our fundamental absolute view on power price hasn't changed. It's just the way the market reacted quarter-over-quarter.
Steven Isaac Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Operator:
And your next question will come from the line of Daniel Eggery (sic) [Daniel Eggers] (25:35) with Credit Suisse.
Dan L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Hey, good morning, guys. On Pepco, could we just talk about the process? So assuming that the D.C. decision comes soon, what is the process for closing from this point, and what bearing does the Maryland appeal have on your ability to close right now?
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
I'm going to get Darryl Bradford to cover that.
Darryl M. Bradford - Executive Vice President & General Counsel:
Hey, Steve.
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
It's Dan.
Darryl M. Bradford - Executive Vice President & General Counsel:
I'm sorry. Dan, we expect to – assuming a acceptable order from the D.C. Commission, we expect to close promptly after that order. Our contract would indicate that that will take place within 48 hours of approval by the D.C. commission. And we don't think that the Maryland motion should be any bar to us closing. We don't believe that that motion has any merit whatsoever. As you know, the alleged conflict of interest of one of the commissioners having a preliminary interviewing discussion, which she stopped, with a non-party, isn't a basis under Maryland law to question the independence of that decision, let alone to stay the proceedings. No court in Maryland and no commission in Maryland has ever suggested there's a conflict with the commissioner of any agency having a conversation with a non-party. Particularly where, as here, Exelon is one of some 45 board members, 140 members in an agency that includes public interest groups like Public Citizen, which was a party below and was the first one to raise this conflict issue. So we don't think that that motion has any merit. We filed a response yesterday with the court, and we plan to go ahead and close promptly after the D.C. commission issues an order, assuming that that order has acceptable conditions. And we have faith that the D.C. commission will do the right thing. We think we've put in a strong case with a lot of benefits for customers and protections for customers. And we look forward to a prompt closing.
Dan L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Okay. Got it. And then I guess just on the nuclear plants in Illinois with PJM, I guess, probably moving the closure date to October. That's still probably before Illinois can act legislatively. With the drop in the forward curves, is there a practical way where you can look at those plants and think that they stay economic without some sort of legislation in Illinois? And does that force your hand come October?
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
The capacity market fixes, focused on reliability, will not be enough to keep all the units economically viable. It does give us some support for the investments that we continue to make on the assets to maintain the reliability but it's not totally there. We need a market fix in Illinois to stop the non-competitive nature of the market. And short of the legislation to fix that, we will have to make decisions on retiring assets that are not economically viable. As we talked about previously, we have requirements around notification to PJM of our intent to retire units. It's an 18-month notification. We also have commitments around when we have to notify of our availability for the 2018-2019 auction in participation on that. And very importantly, we have to order and design cores that – fuel cores that take a while for us to – or 2019-2020 auction instead of 2018-2019, 2019-2020 auction, our participation there. And we have to order the cores, and there's a long lead time there. Are we going to run for an additional year or are we going to run for a longer period of time? And that's a very expensive decision to make. So, at least on the PJM (30:34) we'll make the decision, the final decision, if we're going to do that, in the September timeframe. We've been in consultation with the Board and we'll continue to consult with the Board, and where management's made their decision we'll pass that to the Board for the final approval in that timeframe, and continue with the outreach to our stakeholders.
Dan L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Chris, just given the fact that you're not going to have legislation realistically done before September, and you kind of laid out the other challenges, doesn't it – what would cause you to not close the plants come September, based on the fact pattern you just laid out for us?
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
If the units clear the 2018-2019 auction, that would show that they're financially viable. That is a long shot in our opinion, just because of the cost structure and how the forwards have continued to collapse at the bus at a couple of these units. We've got the transmission constraints, we've got the overproduction and importation of wind that not only drops the spot but continues to collapse the forward curve. The disconnect between NiHub and the bus at some of these units is $6, $7. And we have worked very closely with all the stakeholders involved for over a year and a half on trying to come to resolution, and it is the time that we'll have to make the decision after we see what happens with the capacity auctions. We don't take the decision lightly. We understand the effect that we have on the communities and potential effect on employees, but this has been a long-term issue that we've been evaluating and trying to come to resolution, and we're staying within the timeline. Actually, we extended our timeline last year to give more time to come up with the proper market fixes, and to be compensated adequately for operating these units versus subsidizing a low-cost market.
Dan L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
And I don't mean to beat this to death (32:49) for this, but would closing a Quad or a Clinton show up noticeably as accretive to you guys on 2017 numbers?
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
We don't – we have not looked at that, and don't look at it. We analyze the plants as a standalone in their own economics, so it's about a plant losing money. We have not evaluated; others have and others have talked about the impact to consumers on those units closing. The state itself did that assessment, and there is some material impact on the consumer, but we have not evaluated anything specific to Exelon.
Dan L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Okay, very good. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question will come from the line of Jonathan Arnold with Deutsche Bank.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Good morning, guys.
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Hey.
Jonathan W. Thayer - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Executive VP:
Good morning.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
One – just – given your comments about liquidity in the forward curve, is it fair to assume that you've probably not done much in the way of 2018 hedging yet? Because ordinarily you would have been a couple of quarters into it. Just curious if you could give us any insight?
Joseph Nigro - Executive Vice President, Exelon; Chief Executive Officer, Constellation, Exelon Corp.:
Yeah, Jonathan. We are behind our ratable sales plan in 2018. As you know, we have a very big load-serving book of business, so we've captured opportunities, both in our retail and wholesale load-serving businesses to the extent possible, in 2018. And in addition, at times, as we've spoken about in other years, we used the gas market as well. But to sell straight OTC power in 2018, we've not done much, if any, of that at all.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. And then just to revisit the commercial opportunities comment. Can you give us any insight as to what kind of opportunities you're talking about? And is it, are they the result of others pulling back from the market, or just successful discussions with potential clients I guess?
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
It's early on that one, Jonathan. We'll do the full disclosure when we complete the negotiations.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. Sorry to re-ask that. And then, Chris, at the outset, you made the comment that you saw the inclusion of DR in the transition auctions as being, I think you said, nonmaterial to the outcome?
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Yes.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Could you share a bit more of your kind of logic and thought process behind that statement?
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Yeah. Joe?
Joseph Nigro - Executive Vice President, Exelon; Chief Executive Officer, Constellation, Exelon Corp.:
Jonathan, it's Joe. First of all, we lost over $1 billion of market cap post the announcement of that, of the inclusion of DR in 2016-2017 and 2017-2018. And we really thought it was a little bit of an overreaction. As Chris mentioned, we're disappointed in the delay, but we don't believe there's going to be a material impact to either of those transition auctions. As you're aware, DR was already included in 2018-2019 and beyond. The reason why we don't think it's a material impact in the transition auctions is really related to how the auctions themselves cleared on the base residual, and the separation in price in 2016-2017 on one side, and then the amount of DR that clears in the 2017-2018 auction, and when we put that all into our models, it's very similar to what we've read, quite frankly, from a lot of what's been written by the equity community, that it's going to be a limited impact.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. Thank you for that.
Operator:
And your next question will come from the line of Julien Smith with UBS.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Hi. Good morning.
Jonathan W. Thayer - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Executive VP:
Hey, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Hey. So, first quick question and it does kind of rehash a little bit here, but on the fundamental upside you're talking about, just to be clear, what does that assume in terms of retirements, just to be clear? Your own retirements, particularly as you're thinking about the life of your portfolio here in the back half of the year?
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Yeah. We have not evaluated the potential retirement of any our assets on market-forward prices. And, so this is just based off of fundamentals of what has been announced, and what we see for retirements, what we see for the economic viability of the existing fleet in what they would have to clear to stay viable going forward. So it's not a sustainable market forward with the asset mix that's currently in. It has nothing to do with any forward decision we would make.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Right. So just to be clear, nuclear retirements would be incremental to your fundamental upside?
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
We don't know that. We have not analyzed it and I wouldn't want to project one way or the other. It's, there are two different things. The nuclear asset retirement is based off of the economic viability of the asset on the stand-alone. And we have had losses and free cash flow losses in the trailing five years of some significance. And we project going forward with these market forwards, them to be even worse than they were a year ago, which is driving us to make that decision. It is not based off of any potential impact on the market forwards or the rest of the fleet's viability.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Got it. And then two subsequent questions here. First, in terms of the FCF losses, what would you estimate those as being, both for the eastern portfolio and for the ComEd portfolio as it stands today? And then secondly, tied into that, as you evaluate the remaining life of some of these assets, would you imagine layering one announcement after another? So I suppose specifically, there's a timing issue related to ordering new cores. I imagine certain units have to get those orders in before others. Could we see one nuclear retirement and then subsequently, depending on what happens in the legislative arena, et cetera, see further announcements later this year, in trying to reconcile the bigger issues around FCF deficit?
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
Yeah. We've discussed fairly openly the units, the affected units. PJM's rules require us an earlier notification than MISO's rules. And so, we would be moving forward, if we have to, on PJM units before MISO units. We don't project a MISO decision until beginning of next year, looking at the opportunities we have with that unit either through legislation or other mechanisms, to secure the required revenues that we need there. We've talked about New York units. We're still working with our partners in our stakeholders in New York to look at, is there a viable way beyond – a reliability must-run situation to maintain economic viability there? And the final asset that's been in discussion is Oyster Creek, which we've already had an agreed-upon early retirement date at the end of 2019. So, short of the – short of a, some type of failure that was a costly failure on the unit, we would run into that period to allow adequate transition, utilization of the fuel, and adequate transition of our employee base to other facilities.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Got it. But just to be clear about the MISO unit there, depending on the success this year in the legislative arena, would that drive that decision?
Christopher M. Crane - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director:
It would have a – it would heavily weight our decision.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
And we have time for one final question. Your final question will come from the line of Chris Turnure with JPMorgan.
Christopher J. Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Good morning, guys. I wanted to get a little bit more color on the Pepco approval process here, and the court challenge, than what you've already talked about. Do you have any sense of the precedent, or a precedent, for actually staying a commission order? Obviously you disagree with the merit of this case. But you do you have any precedent there, and what would be the path forward if it was not stayed, and you got the decision out of D.C.?
Darryl M. Bradford - Executive Vice President & General Counsel:
Thanks. It's Darryl again. Yeah, the precedent on a stay is very clear in Maryland. It's an extraordinary remedy. It is rarely granted. You have to show a likelihood of success on the merits. And the motion does not, on the merits of the underlying merger, raise any issues whatsoever. The only issue that raises is this specious purported conflict claim, which we think is very, very weak. So, we don't think they've attempted to meet that. They would also have to show irreparable harm, which – they spend a paragraph trying to satisfy that. It's really not very persuasive, in our view. They would have to show that a stay is in the public interest. And, of course, not only has the Maryland Commission, but the New Jersey Commission, the FERC, the Delaware Commission have all found that this merger is in the public interest. And they'd also have to show that the hardships favor them, and in our pleading we lay out why disrupting – the hardship of potentially disrupting a $7 billion merger outweighs any hardships that would occur from the grant of the stay. So we think it's an extraordinary remedy. We don't think that they've come close to meeting those standards in any respect. And the law is also very clear that in Maryland, it's not a balancing. They have to satisfy each and every one of those elements, and in this case, in our view, they haven't satisfied any of them. So, that leaves us in a position where, upon D.C. approval, and assuming that the court agrees with the pleading we filed yesterday and doesn't grant a stay, that promptly upon the D.C. Commission joining the other commissions in finding that this is in the public interest, and assuming that any conditions it imposes are not unduly burdensome, that we would close promptly.
Christopher J. Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. Great. That's very helpful. And then, is there – or my understanding is that D.C. has to rule by the end of August. Is there any flexibility around that timing? Can they extend that again?
Darryl M. Bradford - Executive Vice President & General Counsel:
Yeah. There is no clock in D.C., so they are not under any time constraint. Generally, the D.C. Commission has ruled within 90 days of something being fully briefed and submitted to them. This was fully briefed at the end of May. So that 90 days would end at the end of August. I think that's where that date comes from. Obviously, we're hopeful that sooner is better than later, but that will be up to the D.C. Commission, and they'll rule when they have finished their work. They are, I think, acutely aware that a lot of people are looking for a decision from them, and they understand that. But they will take the time that they deem necessary in order to do their job right.
Christopher J. Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. And then if I could, real quick, Joe, I just wanted to follow up, you've mentioned lack of liquidity in the forward markets a couple of times on the call here. Is this a lack of liquidity that exceeds just the general nature of these markets and what you've seen historically? Has that increased, and if that is the case, do you have an opinion as to why there might be so few trades going on out there?
Joseph Nigro - Executive Vice President, Exelon; Chief Executive Officer, Constellation, Exelon Corp.:
Yeah, I think it's probably worse than it has been historically. And I think some of it is, there is just no natural buyers out on, that far out on the forward curve, as I said. The back end of the forward curve was dropped much more than in like 2016, where there were more natural buyers, whether we talk about retail or speculators or other participants. So I think with some of the folks that used to participate in the markets not doing that, some on the banking side and others, I think it's had a material impact.
Christopher J. Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Great. Thanks a lot.
Operator:
Thank you. And that will conclude today's conference call. We appreciate your participation. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Francis Idehen - Investor Relations Christopher Crane - President and Chief Executive Officer Jack Thayer - Chief Financial Officer Joseph Nigro - Executive Vice President, Exelon; CEO, Constellation William Von Hoene - Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Strategy Officer, Exelon Corporation Kenneth Cornew - Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, Exelon Corporation; President and CEO, Exelon Generation
Analysts:
Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Neel Mitra - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Research Shar Pourreza - Guggenheim Partners Paul Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey Travis Miller - Morningstar Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs
Operator:
Good morning. My name is Britney and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Quarter One 2015 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. Mr. Francis Idehen, you may begin your conference.
Francis Idehen:
Thank you, Britney. Good morning, everyone and thank you for joining for our first quarter 2015 earnings conference call. Leading the call today are Chris Crane, Exelon’s President and Chief Executive Officer; and Jack Thayer, Exelon’s Chief Financial Officer. They are joined by other members of Exelon’s senior management team who will be available to answer your questions following our prepared remarks. We issued our earning release this morning along with a presentation, each of which can be found in the Investor Relations section of Exelon’s website. The earnings release and other matters which we discuss during today’s call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ from our forward-looking statements based on factors and assumptions discussed in today’s material, comments made during this call and in the Risk Factors section of the 10-K, which we filed in February as well as in the earnings release and the 10-Q which we expect to file later today. Please refer to the 10-K, today’s 8-K and 10-Q and Exelon’s other fillings for a discussion of factors that may cause the results to differ from management’s projections, forecasts, and expectations. Today’s presentation also includes references to adjusted operating earnings and other non-GAAP measures. Please refer to the information contained in the appendix of our presentation and our earnings release for a reconciliation between non-GAAP measures to the nearest equivalent GAAP measures. We have scheduled 45 minutes for today’s call. I will now turn the call over to Chris Crane, Exelon’s CEO.
Christopher Crane:
Thank you, Francis. And good morning everyone, thanks for joining the call. Before I go into the prepared remarks, I want to first start by addressing the situation in Baltimore. As a company with a significant presence in Baltimore monitoring the unrest with great concern, as you know, Maryland’s Governor Larry Hogan has declared a state of an emergency and Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake has declared a city-wide curfew until next week. We join the rest of the business community in recognizing the issues that Baltimore is dealing with and needs to address so the city can – this great city can heal itself to get back on to economic growth for all. Moving on to the quarter, I am very pleased with our financial performance. We delivered earnings of $0.71 per share, surpassing our guidance range of $0.60 to $0.70. And Jack is going to describe our performance in greater detail. I would like to focus my remarks on our priorities in how we are strategically pursuing value for customers and shareholders. We continue to operate in a challenging market environment, particularly on the generation side of our business, but our gen to load match strategy continues to create value as seen in the first quarter hedge disclosure. Our advocacy efforts are focused on creating our channels to capture value for our communities and customers we serve and for our shareholders. I’ll touch on those directly. In our regulated business, we’re redefining the role of the utility of the future, in part by making needed infrastructure investments to modernize the grid. Over the next five years, our LRP has $16 billion of capital that will create approximately 6% CAGR with another potential $7 billion at PHI. Installing smart meter technology to enable customers to make informed choices about their energy consumption and promoting energy efficiency investments in innovation and resilient technologies at our utilities is a way that is progressive and equitable across all customer types. You can see this reflected in the energy plan for Illinois future build that we recently proposed through ComEd and Illinois. With these efforts we’re bringing improvements to the lives of the customers in a way that creates value for the company. Our merchant business faced challenges primarily due to policies and market design shortcomings that have failed to fairly value the benefits of nuclear. As a result, we focused our advocacy efforts on ensuring reliable, environmental and economical benefits of nuclear power are not taken for granted and that these plants are operated on a level playing field. In Illinois, we are working with state legislators on the low carbon portfolio standard that values each of these benefits. The bill unanimously was approved by the Center Energy Panel and the Public Utilities Committee and will now go to the Senate forward. We hope the same will happen in the House and that the bill will be approved within this legislative session. From a reliability perspective, we are pleased that FERC has granted the waiver to allow PJM to delay the capacity auction in order to further review PJM’s CP proposal. It is clear from this action that FERC appreciates that the old rules are not sufficient to ensure reliability and the changes must be made. We look forward to a positive outcome. We continue to work through the process of finalizing a contract with RG&E for our Ginna facility. As these events play out, we’ve continued our best operating the plants and the utilities at high levels of efficiency, engineering our generation output through strong portfolio management while we expand our footprint and our profits in retail power and gas operations. As you can see, we are doing things on both sides of our business, we’re tapping into multiple channels to create upside and drive value for our customers and for our investors. This leads me to our proposed merger with PHI. As you know, we’ve obtained regulatory approval from FERC Virginia and New Jersey, we’ve reached a global settlement in Delaware that is pending Commission approval. That leaves Maryland and the District of Columbia. In Maryland, we’ve reached a partial settlement with several critical parties that has been presented to – we presented that settlement to the Maryland Public Service Commission and expect a decision from them on May 15. In the District, we’ve completed our evidentiary hearings and we’re now filing briefs and the Commission will comments its deliberations. We have said from the beginning that this merger and the commitments we have made clearly demonstrate this merger is in the public interest and should be approved by the regulatory commissions. While there is no guarantee that the Public Service Commission will approve the proposal and that there is no guarantee they will not impose conditions that would frustrate the transaction, we believe that the settlement and commitments that we are made in the proceeding are more than meet the statutory requirements for the merger approval and we will look forward to orders approving the merger. We expect the merger to close late in the second quarter or in the third. In summary, we’re creating value today while actively pursuing public policy changes that recognize the benefits provided by our clean reliable assets and we’re working on all those fronts. I’ll now turn it over to Jack who will cover the financial performance for the quarter.
Jack Thayer:
Thank you, Chris, and good morning everyone. We had a strong first quarter to start the year. My remarks will cover our financial results for the quarter, second quarter guidance range and update our hedge disclosures and cash outlook. I’ll start off with slide 4. Starting with our first quarter results on slide 4, Exelon exceeded our guidance range and delivered earnings of $0.71 per share. At Exelon Generation, once again we realized the benefits of our generation to load matching strategy. Quarter after quarter this strategy has paid dividends in a broad array of market conditions. During the first quarter, despite experiencing lower power prices than during the same period in 2014, we benefited from a lower cost to serve customers. We are realizing strong margins in our load business from contracts we executed last year after the Polar Vortex. In addition, our gas business performed above our expectations during the quarter due to favorable weather. While our nuclear plants performed better than they did at this time last year, we did have some nuclear outages that negatively impacted our quarterly earnings by approximately $0.04 relative to plan. That being said, we continue to push our plants to perform at our standard highest levels of performance. Our portfolio management team performed strongly and was able to more than offset these losses. On balance, Generation earned $0.35 per share during the quarter. Exelon’s utilities delivered combined earnings of $ 0.39 per share, an $ 0.08 increase over the first quarter of last year. Although we did not see a repeat of the Polar Vortex of 2014, with sustained extreme cold and wind, we faced a very cold winter with heating degree days 14% to 19% above normal in ComEd’s and PECO’s service territories. In fact, it was colder in Philadelphia this winter than the previous winter. Cold weather, a lack of severe storms and increased distribution rates of BGE drove utility results this quarter. More detail on quarter over quarter driver of utilities can be found in the appendix on slide 16. For the second quarter, we are providing guidance of $ 0.45 per share to $ 0.55 per share. This compares with our realized earnings of $0.51 per share in the second quarter of 2014. We are reaffirming our full-year guidance of $ 2.25 to $ 2.55 per share. Since our last call both PECO and ComEd have filed rate cases this year. On March 27, PECO filed an electric distribution rate case with the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission requesting a $190 million revenue increase and a 10.95% return on equity. This is PECO’s first rate case filing since 2010 and the first time filing based on a fully projected future test year. In addition, if the PAPUC approves the new System 2020 plan, an additional $275 million will be spent during the next five years to install advanced equipment and reinforce the local electric system, making it more weather resistant and less vulnerable to storm damage. We expect the PAPUC to rule by the end of the year on the rate case and System 2020 plan with new rates going into effect in January 2016. On April 15, ComEd filed its annual formula rate filing with the Illinois Commerce Commission. ComEd requested a revenue decrease of $50 million. This reduction is a result of a continued focus on cost management and operational efficiencies that are being realized from a stronger more reliable grid with fewer outages. EIMA and the smart grid investments are working. Since 2012, there have been more than 3.3 million avoided customer interruptions including 1.2 million in 2014, due largely to increased investments in distribution automation or digital smart switches that automatically route power around problem areas. Outage will save customers an estimated $175 million. More detail on each of these rate cases can be found in the appendix on slides 20 through 22. I’ll now turn to our first quarter gross margin update on slide 5. During the quarter, we saw a drop in natural gas prices, while power prices were steady and heat rates expanded further. The market is finally incorporating the change in the generation stack due to coal retirements as evidenced by the heat rate seen today. Approximately 10 gigawatts of coal plants that PJM have or will retire this year with the majority of retirements occurring in April and May. We hedged closed to a ratable amount during the quarter in both in Mid-Atlantic and Midwest regions. At the end of the quarter, for 2016 and 2017, we remain considerably behind ratable in the Midwest where we continue to see upside. Total gross margin is unchanged, relatively unchanged across 2015 through 2017 from our fourth quarter disclosures. As I mentioned, Constellation had a good quarter and executed $200 million in power new business and $100 million in non-power new business. In addition, we’ve raised our power new business target by $100 million because we have line of sight for continued success in the balance of the year. This increase was offset by our nuclear outages resulting in a net $50 million improvement in 2015 total gross margin. Slide 6 provides an update on our cash flow expectations for this year, projected cash from operations of $6.7 billion. I’d like to point out that we have increased our CapEx projections at ComEd by $200 million. In finalizing the investment plan for 2015, ComEd identified incremental opportunity to invest in infrastructure, including grid resiliency and security, storm hardening and smart grid. These investments will continue to improve the reliability of ComEd's system. As a reminder, the appendix includes several schedules that will help you in your modeling efforts. Thank you. And we will now open the line for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Daniel Eggers with Credit Suisse.
Daniel Eggers:
I have been hearing a lot of concerns about the Pepco acquisition and probably some of the Maryland comments, both out of the MEA and the Governor's office. Can you just kind of share your thoughts on how you guys addressed maybe the market power considerations or issues that are raised and how you guys moved past that to get this deal done?
Christopher Crane:
There are some that have mentioned a loss of competition and as all know, Pepco, Maryland and BG&E do not compete. Each of these will be standalone in the future as they are now. Rate cases will be decided by the Public Utility Commission in Maryland. We work at the will of the Commission. The benefits that we show by bringing PHI into the Exelon Utilities with best practice sharing being able to leverage procurement and the commitments that we made we think meet the test of best – to the benefit of the consumer. And so the Governor has not taken that position. The Governor has stayed neutral since as he said he has come into this late in the process. So there was rumors that he was against it, that was clarified with the letter that he sent to the Commission saying he has faith in the Commission that they will do the right thing and he is neither for or against, he is neutral on it. And that’s the support that we have gotten from Montgomery County and Prince George's County is significant. Those were the major customer bases, the majority of the Maryland customers are and we have a strong support from both counties.
Daniel Eggers:
I guess just to play devil's advocate, but if Pepco were not to fill, you guys have funded the equity component of that transaction well in advance. How would you guys use that capital if you ended up having it back to deploy in a different direction?
Jack Thayer:
Obviously, we don't anticipate that to happen. We anticipate getting a successful outcome here. To the extent that the terms of approval were onerous or we were rejected outright, we would look to cash settle the equity, the forwards that we had issued and we would look to utilize the capital raised from the convertibles to either fund growth at the business or return value to shareholders through other means.
Daniel Eggers:
I guess just one last question on the prioritization of capital. Obviously the ERCOT CCGTs are out there, but there has been more conversation about prospect of the LNG project that you guys are an early investor in as well as these stories about the UK office. Can you just clarify how you guys are prioritizing those capitals and maybe address any of the issues that might be around what we have been hearing in the media?
Christopher Crane:
You can see based off of our capital spend, our highest priority is in the regulated investments. We’re making, as I said, $16 billion of investment over the next five years with another potential $7 billion with Pepco being PHI coming in. So that is, we see is a good solid investment needed for the infrastructure for the customers and benefit the shareholders. The CCGTs in Texas are still a very good investment, very positive NPV. It continues to match our generation to load strategy as we continue to grow that load book in Texas in ERCOT. We said at the beginning we are getting these at very good terms, they are under $700 a KW on our brownfield site where we will have expense advantages combining them with our existing facilities. And the nature of those plants, the efficiency and the flexibility of them, they will dispatch well in that ERCOT market. So that’s still a positive investment. [ANOVA] is a good, strong option. We’re the fifth largest in handling merchant gas. We have core competencies around our gas portfolio and continuing to grow out the gas business is a logical move, we believe. But the nature of that project is it would be a contracted long-term type arrangement that de-risks it significantly. If we are successful in obtaining contracts and permits, then we would make the investment to continue to develop out our gas business. So that’s the strategy around utilities. The strategy around competitive electric and gas continue to be the primary. The story in the UK is not an equity story at all. Exelon Nuclear Partners has been invited into the bidding process to be the operator on a couple of projects potentially in the UK. We have a very small office that we rent month to month that those folks are working out of. Part of the process of doing that is understanding more the UK market, so there has been some due diligence around that, but we have no plans right now on becoming an equity owner in the UK at this point. Those were clarification needed to be made.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jonathan Arnold with Deutsche Bank.
Jonathan Arnold:
Just a quick one on Illinois. Chris, you were saying you still think you are hopeful that you will get things across the finish line in the spring session. There has been talk that there might be slippage into the veto session and obviously with the PJM auction delayed maybe the state would want to wait, see the outcome. What’s behind your conviction that we’re still on for the spring?
Christopher Crane:
There is a hearing today that we’ll be continuing to address the issue. So it is being discussed, it’s being worked even with all of the other business that has been going on in Springfield around budgets. So as I said, we got strong support, unanimous support out of the Senate Energy and Public Utilities Committee in March, unanimous, and there is hearings on both the House and Senate this week to continue to discuss it. So we remain positive, cautious but positive that we will be able to get something through in this session. If we don't and the likelihood is that we’re not going to get a bill and we have to address the long-term profitability of the units and we’ll decide that as we see the legislative session end.
Jonathan Arnold:
One other issue, Dan asked about the UK and you responded about the nuclear operator bidding process. There was also a story that you’d been linked to looking at an investment in a CCGT which appear to be similar next-generation technology like you are working on in Texas, any comments on that?
Christopher Crane:
Yes, I learned about that when you did in the clippings. So there is market intelligence that’s going on at a lower level in the organization, but there is no plans to enter into equity positions at this point in the UK.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Greg Gordon with Evercore ISI.
Greg Gordon:
Your expected generation guidance for 2015 to 2017 in New England is 2x, 2x plus today versus what it was in the fourth quarter release. You haven't acquired any assets, so can you explain how you’ve been able to double your expected generation in that market and the flow through impact it is having on your expected gross margin which looks like it’s up marginally over the next two years, but then down marginally in 2017?
Joseph Nigro:
I will speak to that and you are right you noticed that our expected generation in New England in all years has increased appreciably and as such, the generation percentage hedge has declined with that increased output of generation. Very simply, we had disclosed in Q4 2013 that we had worked with a field supplier to restructure a contract that we have. And if you remember back then, our generation had dropped by about 50% in that quarter-over-quarter at that time. That contract restructuring has been terminated and it will be effective at the end of June this year and the contract itself will revert back to its original terms and conditions. It has two impacts. One, you’re seeing the generation impact and the hedge percentage impact and the notification of that termination was at the end of the first quarter this year. So really you’re seeing it flow through on an immediate basis. The gross margin impact was very minimal across the horizon. And as such, just mechanically when you look at the hedge disclosure, the dollars of the termination of the contract restructuring as well as the increased value of the generation output and the margin associated with that is all flowing through the open gross margin line and it’s very minimal. So really it is a volume change that you see with a little dollar impact.
Greg Gordon:
So then what’s the economic rationale for termination if it’s more or less NPV neutral? Are these fuel contracts for gas plants that have optionality associated with price volatility, are they baseload? Why would you terminate that contract if it wasn't increasing NPV appreciably?
Joseph Nigro:
I can't say too much due to the confidentiality of the nature of the agreement, but what I will say is the contract termination was the right of the supplier held that right. And from our perspective, as I said, the impact economically was very muted. I can't speak to the supplier's perspective on why they terminated it, but it’s related to a long-term supply arrangement that we have.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with UBS.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
I wanted to focus on the CP product if you could. First, with regards to your expectations on the future retirements, I’m curious, do you see these CP product as proposed, driving retirements as you go to 100% CP market? Is that conceivable and what kind of units? And then subsequently obviously with Supreme Court here waiting on the DR decision, how do you see that ultimately impacting the base of CP products of any eventual auction here? Does it appreciably impact CP or is it more of an impact from the base auction?
Joseph Nigro:
I think to your first question around retirements, we don't see a material impact. I think the rationale is first and foremost obviously to improve the reliability on the system and to do that you need a couple of, you can go about that a couple of ways. One is the hardening of the units themselves which have a cost associated with it. The second thing is to make sure you have firm fuel on-site for these units and there is a cost to do that. When you look at the economics of all of that, we don't believe there is going to be a material impact to retirement. I will sit here and say though given this structure that’s been laid out if it is implemented, I would expect that you would see an increased risk premium effectively in the marketplace given the fact that the penalty structure is changing rightfully so to ensure reliability. But I don't think outright there will be material impact on the retirement side.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
And on demand response?
Joseph Nigro:
I guess from a DR perspective, there is a lot of flux around the rules, but sitting here looking at this auction, we would expect to see the demand response activity will continue in the way it has. And then as rule changes through time, if the change, whether it becomes a retail product as opposed to a wholesale product, we will have to see how that plays out.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
And then just turning to the renewables business, obviously the yieldco phenomenon continues to evolve. Have you given more thought about the degree to which this business is core as we’ve seen the market evolve?
Christopher Crane:
Julien, with respect to the renewables part of our business?
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Exactly, just not with creating a structure yourself, but ultimately whether you could garner better value in the public markets of late?
Christopher Crane:
As you know, we have an extensive business both on the solar as well as wind renewables part of our business. And how we have improved the returns on that business over the last number of years has been through the extensive use of project financing as a means of returning capital to the corporate coffers to reinvest either in the growth of the utilities or fund some of our other expansionary efforts around. As an example, the peaker that we are building in New England or the combined cycles we are building in Texas. Certainly, we do watch and we do evaluate and consider the potential impact of value that a yieldco could have on our assets from the perspective of yieldcos as potential buyers of those assets or through the potential to create our own yieldco. And we continue to evaluate that within our project financing efforts. We have retained that option to be able to do that. I think one of the key elements though to a successful strategy around yieldcos is having a significant and visible pipeline of assets that you could drop down. And we have I think a good amount of assets. We have elements like our ANOVA LNG facility that if we decide to pursue that and we had a long-term off take agreement that would provide attractive revenues that could fit in that type of structure. But at this point we don't have any plans to pursue such a structure and continue to have a candidly wait and see approach.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
So more of a retain the business, build it out and then see down the line rather than monetize it?
Christopher Crane:
Absolutely. So you see us continuing to deploy wind investments. We have a project that we’re developing down in Texas, Laredo. You continue to see us work down a path on the ANOVA LNG project to secure a long-term off take and you see us continue – through our Constellation business continue to pursue opportunities to grow the solar side of our business.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Neel Mitra with Tudor, Pickering.
Neel Mitra:
I was wondering on the holdco side, how much more debt are you able to support after the Pepco acquisition closes now that you are more regulated?
Christopher Crane:
Neel, as you know, we have significant debt issuance forthcoming that will be used to finance at the holding company, the PHI transaction that we would look to bring to market once we have visibility around a successful path in Maryland. We continue to evaluate the balance sheet capacity and the space that we have at that holding company. As you know, we’ve said we will utilize that holding company as a potential vehicle to finance regulated growth. I think an important element to this is the interplay between the growing earnings mix of our utilities business relative to our merchant exposure on how the rating agencies perceive us. And so to the extent that the rating agencies continue to evolve in their thinking around the risks embedded in our business and see us as a less risky credit, I would say that is the biggest mover of balance sheet capacity. Obviously, some elements around whether it’s capacity performance, the Illinois Clean Energy Legislation that would be additive to the company's cash flow and earnings would also be helpful to our ability to add further leverage to the holding company.
Neel Mitra:
And then assuming Pepco closes, what’s the latest update as to when the dividend is fully funded by the regulated side?
Christopher Crane:
So we project that towards the latter part of the decade into 2020 timeframe, but we will continue to evaluate that based off of rate case outcomes.
Jack Thayer:
That’s specific to – from a free cash flow standpoint, the utilities being able to not just from a payout ratio standpoint, but from a free cash flow funding standpoint, Chris’ point on the latter part of the decade is when that cash would be available to potentially consider growing the dividend.
Neel Mitra:
And then last on the Illinois legislation, if something isn't reached by the end of May, what are the options to maybe keep the process going through 2015 or is it kind of done through the rest of the year if you don't have an outcome by May?
William Von Hoene:
We expect the session, this is Bill Von Hoene, to conclude at the end of May. It conceivably could be extended if the budget impasse continues. It’s unlikely that the energy legislation would be considered during that period of time. There is a six-day session, veto session in November and into early December which requires a super majority on any votes that pass during that period of time. So that would be the next time the legislature would convene after the conclusion of this regular session.
Neel Mitra:
And a super majority would require a 60% vote, is that correct?
William Von Hoene:
That’s correct.
Christopher Crane:
The point on that though in May of 2014, we committed not to make any decisions based off of economics for a year. We’re coming to the end of that year and we need to make decisions that start the planning process if we do not see a success path.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Angie Storozynski with Macquarie.
Angie Storozynski:
So wanted to focus again on Illinois, so it seems like you guys are bullish energy prices in Illinois and that’s why you are not hedging much of your portfolio. You are also bullish on capacity prices. At the recent PJM, you just had this spike in MISO capacity prices. So how does it all add up because on the one hand if capacity prices rise then you have less of a volatility on peak [indiscernible] potentially lower heat rates. So how does it reconcile with your outlook on heat rates?
Joseph Nigro:
I think what I would say is if we talk just about energy prices in Northern Illinois for a minute, using prices as of the end of the quarter, we do still see heat rate expansion. We don't think the market has priced in all the upside really driven by the back of the change in dispatch stack. And if you think about two different timeframes like 2016, 2017, we probably see less upside than we do when you get out to the 2018, 2019 time period and it’s probably to the tune of $1 to $2 accordingly. Just as importantly, we also have a view that we think natural gas is underpriced at this point which in addition to that would drive prices higher net-net because you would see a slight heat rate decline with the rise in natural gas. But net-net, it would be a positive outcome. And your point is right that from a hedging perspective, we continue to remain behind our ratable hedging plan in the Midwest to the tune of about 10% in 2016 and 2017 approximately just given those views.
Angie Storozynski:
And you also think that the carbon legislation in Illinois is not going to have any negative impact on forward energy prices in Illinois?
Joseph Nigro:
No, we don't.
Angie Storozynski:
Secondly, in ERCOT, you keep saying that you have a cost advantage for the new build and you clearly do. But forward curves are showing on peak spark spreads of $15, $16, so the conclusion or your dedication to the project is driven by your outlook on where these spark spreads are going to go as opposed to what we’re seeing? And so can you give us at least a sense what kind of spark spreads you are assuming in your calculations when you think that the IRR of the projects is still interesting?
Kenneth Cornew:
We continue to be comfortable with our investment in these plants because as Chris said, the cost advantage, the technology advantage meaning the heat rate efficiencies and the responsiveness of the plants. We’ve seen spark spreads bounce around a lot in ERCOT. The lack of volatility recently has driven them down. Our long-term fundamental views are what I would say conservative and we’re still confident in the investments, very confident actually.
Operator:
And your final question comes from the line of Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.
Shar Pourreza:
Just sticking with the RSSA with Ginna, is there an update on the filing? And then just counter with the EDF put option, how should we think about under an assumption that you may own the remaining portion of this plan, is there an option that you can get an expanded RSSA contract if the timing works?
William Von Hoene:
The RSSA contract was approved by FERC effective April 1, but with two adjustments being required in the contract which have been sent back and a compliance filing will be made by Ginna to reflect that. Then there will be a process by which the contract itself will be evaluated and potentially settled through a FERC procedure. So that is going to go forward for probably the balance of the year based upon precedent in other circumstances, although the ability to collect on a cost based rate is effective now. The put is exercisable by EDF January 1, 2016. We do not know and don't speculate as to what would happen in connection with that. With regard to the potential extension of the RSSA agreement, it’s predicated on the period of time that’s necessary for the New York system to find alternative ways to deliver the same reliability that Ginna currently is required to deliver. So we would not anticipate in the absence of the failure of the New York system to do so that there would be any basis for extension of the agreement.
Shar Pourreza:
And then just one lastly, sticking with the Illinois carbon portfolio, have you quantified what could potentially be available under the cap using let's say the 2014 rates? And then additionally, am I correct to assume that there is an opportunity to breach that cap if somehow credits are being constrained?
William Von Hoene:
No, the cap is the same essentially 2% cap that goes on energy efficiency in RPS, and I think that’s been calculated by a number of folks. There is no provision by which the cap could be breached under the legislation as it’s currently proposed.
Shar Pourreza:
And then you haven't quantified what could be available under the program using pre-existing rates, right?
William Von Hoene:
No, we have not.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Paul Ridzon with KeyBanc.
Paul Ridzon:
A quick question on Illinois, with the Attorney General's office kind of weighing in on the MISO auction, is that entering the discussion in the Legislature?
Christopher Crane:
There has been attention not surprisingly to the MISO auction in connection with the Legislative deliberations and I think it’s relevant in the minds of a number of legislators. From our standpoint, however, it has virtually no impact on the health of our plants. The Clinton plant which was a price taker in the auction and which had sold in advance a significant portion of the power that benefited the auction results is only about $13 million. So that’s far short of what would be necessary and doesn't obviate the need for the low carbon portfolio standard for that plant or elsewhere.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Ali Agha with SunTrust.
Ali Agha:
I wanted to clarify, I may have missed this, I think you were mentioning that. On the forward prices versus fundamental view, if I heard you right, you said you thought Midwest was probably about $2 lower than what the fundamental view would be? I wanted to confirm that and what’s thinking on mid-Atlantic for PJM right now, forward versus fundamental?
Joseph Nigro:
What I said was there’s two components to our view. The first is just fundamentally we still expect to see heat rate expansion in Northern Illinois across the time horizon. So if you look at calendar 2016, 2017 and beyond, we would expect to see heat rate expansion and that’s probably in that $1 to $2 range. But additionally, we see gas price upside which would also increase the power price beyond that upside. So that would effectively raise the heat rates as well and/or effectively raise the power price as well. So there are two components to our view and as such, we’re behind our ratable plan in 2016 and 2017 from a hedging perspective to the tune of approximately 10%. And it’s important to note that there is some seasonality associated with that in our hedging profile within a given year reflects that, meaning we see time buckets that are more valuable relative to the market than others. On the West upside, we see that heat rates and power prices are generally in line with our fundamental forecast and we don't see quite as much opportunity, but again there is seasonality associated with that and our hedging profile takes that into account.
Ali Agha:
Joe, one other thing, on the retail side, a quick update on the competitive environment and the $2 to $4 margin that we’ve historically been benchmarking just to give us a sense of where we are as new contracts are rolling in?
Joseph Nigro:
I think in general, our load business has done very well whether we’re talking about our retail book of business on the commercial and industrial side or our polar procurement business on the wholesale side. After the Polar Vortex last year, we saw, I would say folks may be pricing the risk more prudently from our perspective as it relates to managing a retail contract. That’s one element of it. And then from the margin perspective using that $2 to $4 benchmark that you laid out there, we’re well in line in the range of that $2 to $4 whereas we were sitting here a year and a half ago we’re struggling to be even at the low end of that range. So we’ve seen improvement across the board both from a risk pricing perspective and a margin improvement perspective in our load business from both wholesale and retail.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Travis Miller with Morningstar.
Travis Miller:
This is a bit of a follow-up to that last question, but how long do you expect this magnitude of the load matching benefit that you got in this quarter to extend? Can we think about this extending through the full-year and beyond or was there something in the quarter that gave you even more benefit on the load matching side relative to what we could see later in the year?
Joseph Nigro:
I think there's a couple of answers to that question and I think the most important one is we’re seeing the changeover in the generation stack that we expected to see with retirements and low gas prices and you’ve seen the heat rate expansion that we have been talking about for some time. I think in addition to that, I think what you’re going to see going forward is increased volatility and both upside volatility and downside volatility. And I think that has an impact on load following contracts because you need to make sure that they are priced accordingly. So we have got the benefit of, I would call it, lower load serving cost in the first quarter and they’ve come down on a mark to market basis for the balance of the year. But our expectation is given that market volatility we would expect to see that that would pass through to continuing to see appropriate risk premiums in our load serving business and appropriate margins.
Operator:
And your final question comes from the line of Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs.
Michael Lapides:
Just want to circle back a little bit on PJM. We keep seeing a lot of announcements or people attempting to get new combined cycles built. We’ve obviously had a lot to clear over the last few years, gas base is still pretty low meaning it is still pretty wide in parts of PJM relative to where Henry Hub is or even where TETCO is. Just curious your kind of multi-year thoughts about whether lots of plants actually do get built, meaning or do a lot just kind of disappear by the wayside? And what this means not only for – your view of are we kind of at new build economics in PJM? Does the concept of building merchant combined cycle in PGM makes sense to you here? Just kind of broader thinking about gas plant economics in that market.
Joseph Nigro:
There is a couple of questions there. Let me try to pick them off one by one. I think the first one is as it relates to the turnover of the [indiscernible] stack, I think it’s clear that we’re going to see retirements of generation assets. In our fundamental modeling, we have an add back of an appreciable number of gas-fired generators in PJM with most of them on the eastern side of PJM because that is where the economics are more favorable than toward a territory like NiHub for example. You are talking about a long-term investment asset with a build of a combined cycle plant and you are looking at a market with spark spreads that’s a much shorter dated time horizon. In PJM, unlike some of the other markets, the capacity price comes into play and is part of the equation. Clearly, we don't see new build economics work on the Western side of PJM. On the Eastern side of PJM, it’s a much more marginal exercise. I think where spark spreads are and where capacity prices if you use last year as a benchmark for example, I think you could say that's a marginal calculation. There was some talk if you go back a year ago that people were going to be able to lock in gas contracts for 20 years at well under Henry Hub at M3 gas or mid-Atlantic type gas. I would tell you I haven't seen that and I don't think that is going to be the case, so there is an element of making sure that you understand what the dynamics of the cost of production are as well. But I think net-net fundamentally, what we see is a turnover of stack. Our fundamental forecast reflects that so we have an appreciable add back of combined cycle plants and when we take that all into account, as I said previously, we still see upside to the heat rate in NiHub and we are generally in line with where the market heat rate is at West hub.
Michael Lapides:
One real quick follow-up if you don't mind. You all talked a little bit about what the resolution on nuclear fuel means. Can you talk about what that means for fuel costs on a per megawatt hour basis for a typical nuclear plant? Like how material is the change on a dollar per megawatt hour? Are we talking $0.05 or $0.50, just trying to get my arms around it.
Christopher Crane:
You’re talking about the DOE fee?
Michael Lapides:
Yes, please.
Christopher Crane:
It's a little less than $1 a megawatt.
Michael Lapides:
Got it, $1 a megawatt hour, so something that may have been 750-ish is now well below 7?
Christopher Crane:
Yes.
Operator:
I would now like to turn the call back over to Francis for closing remarks.
Francis Idehen:
Thank you, Britney. This concludes our first quarter call. Thank you everyone for joining us this morning.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today’s conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Chris Crane - President and Chief Executive Officer Jack Thayer - Chief Financial Officer Joe Nigro - Chief Executive Officer, Constellation Bill Von Hoene - Chief Strategy Officer Ken Cornew - President and Chief Executive Officer of Exelon Generation Joe Dominguez - Senior Vice President of Federal Regulatory Affairs and public Policy Denis OBrien - Chief Executive Officer of Exelon Utilities
Analysts:
Greg Gordon - Evercore-ISI Dan Eggers - Credit Suisse Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank Steven Fleishman - Wolfe Research Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Stephen Byrd - Morgan Stanley Hugh Wynne - Sanford Bernstein
Operator:
Good morning, everyone and thank you for joining for our Fourth Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. Leading the call today are Chris Crane, Exelon’s President and Chief Executive Officer; Jack Thayer, Exelon’s Chief Financial Officer; Joe Nigro, CEO of Constellation; and Bill Von Hoene, Exelon’s Chief Strategy Officer. They are joined by other members of Exelon’s senior management team who will be available to answer your questions following our prepared remarks. We issued our earning release this morning along with a presentation, each of which can be found in the Investor Relations section of Exelon’s website. The earnings release and other matters that we discuss during today’s call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Actual results could defer from our forward-looking statements based on factors and assumptions discussed in today’s material and comments made during this call and in the Risk Factors section of the earnings release and the 10-K, which we expect to file later today. Please refer to today’s 8-K and the 10-K and Exelon’s other fillings for a discussion of factors that may cause the results to differ from management’s projections, forecasts, and expectations. Today’s presentation also includes references to adjusted opening earnings and other non-GAAP measures. Please refer to the information contained in the appendix of our presentation and our earnings release for a reconciliation between the non-GAAP measures to the nearest equivalent GAAP measures. We have scheduled 60 minutes for today’s call. I will now turn the call over to Chris Crane, Exelon’s CEO.
Chris Crane:
Good morning and thanks for everybody joining. We had another strong year of operations in 2014, which we are very pleased with given the challenging weather conditions at the start of the year. At the utilities, each OpCo achieved top decile performance for safety and top quartile performance for outage frequency and duration. The nuclear fleet ended the year at 94.2% capacity factor, which this marks our 15th year in a row being over 92%. Gas and hydro power dispatch match was at 97% and our renewable energy capture was at 95%. On the financial side, we delivered $2.39 a share in line with our recent year full year guidance. Exelon Generation delivered a strong year for performance in what was a volatile year and our generation to load matching strategy drove strong results during an unexpected mild summer. The utilities performed well in light of severe storms and continuing challenging interest rate environment. 2014 was an active year for us. In addition to selling several assets, we continue the process of recycling capital and strengthening our balance sheet. I will highlight some of our major investments for the year. We grew across the enterprise. From the utility growth perspective, we announced the PHI merger and continued on with our infrastructure upgrade plant spending $3.1 billion of utility investment. On the merchant side, we announced the state-of-the-art CCGT newbuild in ERCOT and we added 215 megawatts in nuclear, wind and solar capacity during the year. At Constellation on the retail side, we completed the acquisition of Integrys retail and ProLiance. We also made investments in adjacent markets in emerging technology to continue to prepare for an evolving marketplace. Bloom Energy and our micro grid investments are good examples of that. We also have a number of major regulatory developments in 2014 that affect both the utilities and the generating business. On the generating side, we have seen progress in Illinois nuclear discussions, with four reports released last month, which highlights the reliability, the economic and the environmental benefits of the nuclear plants to the state. PJM capacity performance proposal has been submitted to FERC. We strongly support the steps being taken to ensure reliability in the region. We expect a continuing discussion on the EPA’s Clean Power Plan over the next several months. On the utility front, we had two positive outcomes for ComEd and BGE rate cases. ComEd received 95% or more from our ask on the last three consecutive rate cases. And BGE achieved its first settlement since 1999. And these outcomes highlight our continued commitment to the customers we serve. Bill is going to go into greater detail on the efficacy issues towards the end of the call. These policy initiatives on the horizon present a potential material upside to earnings as value of our fleet is more appropriately recognized by the market. However, I do want to underscore that the management team is focused on EPS growth and our capital deployment efforts. We invest in prudent growth of the utilities where we can add value for our customers. And within our merchant business we look for opportunities to earn robust financial returns. Our recent announcement announced a Peaker in New England is a great example of that. Our continued investments in both utilities and the generation businesses, demonstrates our commitment to long-term growth initiatives across the enterprise that will bring value to our customers and drive future earnings. Now let me turn it over to Jack to discuss our financial expectations for 2015.
Jack Thayer:
Thank you, Chris and good morning everyone. We provided information on our fourth quarter financial results in the appendix of today’s materials on Slides 17 and 18. I will spend my time this morning on 2015 earnings guidance and our O&M forecast. Turning to Slide 3, we expect to deliver adjusted operating earnings in the $2.25 to $2.55 range, which is the same as our 2014 guidance and earnings of $0.60 to $0.70 per share for the first quarter. Our guidance does not include the earnings from the Pepco Holdings acquisition, but does reflect all asset divestitures to-date. As you know we sold several assets last year, the proceeds of which are being used to partially finance the PHI acquisition and to recycle capital on the merchant side of our business. The lost contributions from these divestitures results in an earnings impact of $0.12 per share relative to last year. In future years there is minimal earnings impact, in particular as capacity revenue from Keystone and Conemaugh runs off. The modest lost earnings from the divested plants will be meaningfully offset by the accretion from our Pepco merger and earnings from other growth projects. For 2015, the earnings impact from these divestitures of $0.12, combined with an additional refueling outage at nuclear of $0.02 and the increased pension and OPEB cost at ExGen of $0.02 are modestly offset by higher capacity prices of $0.07. The full year benefit of the elimination of the DOE fee at Exelon Nuclear of $0.04 and by higher earnings at ComEd of $0.03. As you know at EEI we gave earnings projections for Exelon for three utilities through 2017. Since that time, we have adjusted the midpoints of that guidance down by a total of $0.05 per share due to the impacts of treasury yields at ComEd and bonus depreciations impact on EPS. We still expect a healthy 5% to 6% CAGR on utility earnings from 2014 to 2017 and the cash benefits from bonus depreciation will help to accelerate and fund utility investments. For reference and deeper analysis more detail on the year-over-year drivers by operating company can be found in the appendix on Slides 19 through 22. As Chris mentioned our capital investment plan is significant and positions us to grow earnings over time. Over the next 5 years we are investing $16 billion in capital at our existing utilities and plan for more than $6 billion of investments at the Pepco utilities. We believe these investments are prudent and will improve reliability and our customers’ experience. As you know the Pepco transaction is expected to add $0.15 to $0.20 per share of earnings on a steady state basis in 2017 and beyond. In addition to growing earnings the Pepco acquisition shifts our earnings mix to a substantially more regulated weighting with 61% to 67% of earnings coming from the regulated side in the 2016 through 2017 period. On the ExGen front our focus is deploying capital for growth that achieves attractive financial returns and generates both earnings and cash flow. These investments span the energy value chain and include conventional generation like our Texas CCGTs and a new build peaker in New England that cleared the most recent capacity auction and investments in our distributed energy platform. Above and beyond our existing plan, we see additional opportunities and the have free cash flow to deploy capital to earn attractive incremental returns on both the regulated and merchant sides of our business. Starting in 2016, we expect to have up to $1 billion in incremental annual capacity we can deploy to invest in our utilities, emerging growth and other opportunities. At the utilities, we are evaluating the potential to increase our investments in utility infrastructure, including grid resiliency and security, storm hardening, and new smart grid enabled technologies. Of course, our capital investment in the utilities has to be prudent and help meet the evolving expectations of our customers. These investments will benefit customers by improving reliability and system performance and allow them to better understand and manage their energy usage and costs. At ExGen, capital deployment across the business will be driven by the ability to earn robust financial returns. Slide 4 shows our 2015 O&M forecast relative to 2014. We project O&M for 2015 to be $7.225 billion, an increase of $275 million over 2014. The increase at ComEd and BGE is due to inflation and increased budgeting for storm costs, which results in incremental year-over-year O&M growth. ExGen’s increase is related to a combination of factors, the inclusion the three months of CENG O&M relative to 2014, an additional planned nuclear outage compared to 2014, increased pension costs and projects at Constellation and Generation, including Integrys and growth in our distributed energy business. Overall, we expect a basically flat O&M CAGR over the 2015 to 2017 period. We remain disciplined on cost even as we seek to grow our business. Since our presentation at EEI, we have increased our CapEx projections for 2015 across the company by approximately $325 million. The increase is primarily at ExGen and reflects investments to build contracted generation, including an 80-megawatt wind facility in Texas and an up to 50-megawatt biomass plant in Georgia, which we announced yesterday. Additionally, we have increased the 2015 budgeted CapEx for our Texas CCGTs, advancing the timing of the capital spend. The total cost of the project has not changed. Now, I will turn the call over to Joe Nigro for a discussion of markets and our hedge disclosures.
Joe Nigro:
Thanks, Jack and good morning. The Constellation business continues to perform at high levels. We finished 2014 strong and are seeing solid results so far in 2015 as a result of our generation of load matching strategy and our ability [Technical Difficulty] to market. My comments today will address market events during the fourth quarter and what they mean for our commercial business going forward, including our hedging strategy, the New England ISO capacity market results and our updated hedge disclosures. During the fourth quarter, we experienced a decline in prices across the energy complex as oil and natural gas both realized steep losses in the spot market. Power prices followed gas lower in the second half of the quarter as expectations of extreme weather subsided. The primary driver weighing on prices was the contraction of winter premiums as the markets focus moved away from last year’s Polar Vortex and on to higher natural gas production storage estimates. NI Hub and West Hub around-the-clock prices were down $1.50 to $3 for calendar years 2016 and ‘17 from the end of the third quarter to the end of the fourth quarter. In response, we have positioned the portfolio to better align with our fundamental view that we expect to see seasonal power price subside, primarily at NI Hub and began to build a long position into the forward years. This is similar to how we positioned the portfolio the last few years when our fundamental view showed power market upside. When the market is volatile, our generation of load strategy allows us to optimize the portfolio to lock-in additional value. During the year, we aggressively pursued load-following sales when we observed appropriate risk premiums and increasing margins. We are very highly hedged in 2015 and not impacted from the large downturn in near-term power prices. In fact, we were very aggressive in hedging our PJM East and New England portfolios early in the fourth quarter when higher risk premiums were priced into the market. The remaining length in 2015 is mostly in our Midwest position and focused in the months and time buckets where we believe the forward market is undervalued. As I mentioned we began to build a long tradition in the forward years because we see upside in our view versus market. During the fourth quarter, we dropped further behind our ratable plan and added approximately 5% to our hedge percentages for 2016 and 2017 versus a normal quarter of 8% sales. The majority of our behind ratable position remains in the Midwest where we continue to see upside in power prices driven by coal retirements. Not only did we adjust our deviation to ratable during the quarter, but we also adjusted our seasonal hedging strategies holding length in undervalued month. We will continue to hold a long position based on our market views. Last year at this time we talked about hedging with natural gas to take advantage of our bullish view on heat rates. Those views have materialized over the past 12 months. And we have shifted our hedging strategy out of these cross commodity hedges in order to lock in the higher market implied heat rates. In January of last year, natural gas sales represented over 10% of our hedges. Currently they are less than 2% in any given year. Going forward our hedging strategies and positions will continue to reflect where we see upside versus current market prices both from our view of heat rate expansion and natural gas price increases. We have got a lot of questions recently on oil markets and I would like to spend a minute on what the sharp decline in pricing means for our business. We are not materially impacted by oil pricing mostly due to the fact that our gross margin is primarily driven by a large base load position. However, we do experienced some minor impacts including the potential for lower peak power pricing during heavy load conditions, the potential for lower load growth in ERCOT and lower pricing in our upstream business. The current pressure on the oil prices is more pronounced in the near-term delivery periods as longer-term prices in the $65 to $70 per barrel range still reflects global demand growth. Before I turn to our gross margin update, I want to provide you an update on the recent capacity auction in New England. On February 4, ISO New England released the results of its ninth forward capacity option for the planning year 2018-2019. The clearing price indicate that the new pay for performance capacity construct works. And will attract development of new resources needed in the region. This concludes our recently announced 195 megawatts dual fuel peaking facility at our existing West Medway site, which we expect to have online by December of 2018. Turning to Slide 6, I will review our updated hedge disclosure and the changes since the end of the third quarter. In 2015, total gross margin is unchanged. The impact of the divestiture of Keystone and Conemaugh was offset by the acquisition of Integrys and the expectation of favorable portfolio performance. We executed on a 100 million of power new business and 50 million of non-powered new business during the quarter. Based on 2015 performance to-date and the expectations for the full year, we have increased our power new business target by an additional $50 million. For 2016-2017, total gross margin decreased by $200 million and $250 million respectively largely driven by the impact of lower market prices on our open position. The divesture of Keystone and Conemaugh was offset by the addition of Integrys in these years. We also executed on 50 million of both power and non-power new business in 2016. Overall, the commercial business is performing extremely well across all of our business lines. We will continue to implement hedging strategies that reflect our fundamental view of increases in both power and natural gas markets and optimize our portfolio. Now I will turn it over to Bill.
Bill Von Hoene:
Thanks very much Joe and good morning everyone. As Chris referenced in his opening statements, there are a number of developments playing out on the policy front that affect our customers are our businesses. These issues are not necessarily earnings impactful in 2015, but they may have a material impact on the company beyond this year. And so we are going to spend a few minutes this morning sharing with you our perspectives on the issues. I will start with three issues affecting the generation business in policy space. First on the capacity market reform front that Kris referenced, we have been involved in PJM’s stakeholder process to develop a proposal that will harden the power supply system to help it withstand extreme weather events and ensure reliability for customers. We believe the proposal that now sits before FERC is constructive and if approved will address the gaps in system reliability. The proposal has many similarities to the – for performance market design, which FERC approved in New England a couple of years ago. It’s a no-excuses approach that provides fair compensation to reliable assets that do perform and penalizes suppliers that do not. We think this is a win-win for our customers and for our generation business. We have invested billions of dollars in our fleet over the years to make it the most reliable set of generating assets in the country and we think that the fleet will fare well in a pay for performance system. All told, we view developments on the capacity reform front as decidedly positive and we are expecting a ruling from FERC by April 1. Second, let me talk briefly about the discussions that are ongoing in Illinois. As Chris referenced and as you all have seen by now, the state of Illinois report on potential nuclear power plant closings was issued earlier this year in response to House resolution 1146. As stated in that report, the right energy policy for Illinois should guarantee reliability and improve the environment, while creating and retaining jobs, growing the local economy and minimizing cost. It is difficult to envision such a policy, without nuclear as a critical part of the energy mix. The report offers an independent assessment of the substantial economic, environmental, and reliability benefits that Illinois’ six nuclear plants bring to the state and lays out five options to address the current situation. Establishment of the cap and trade program, imposition of a carbon tax, adoption of a low carbon portfolio standard, adoption of a sustainable power planning standard or reliance on market and external initiatives to make the corrections. We are supportive of any of the options that reward all carbon-free resources equally, but doing nothing simply is not a viable economic option if we are to maintain the operations of those plants that are at risk. As we stated repeatedly, we do not think a bailout. This is about addressing market floss to properly value resources that are of great importance to the State of Illinois. The state has an opportunity to implement, need a change and we will work with policymakers and stakeholders during the coming months to come to an appropriate conclusion soon. Third, on the generation front, a brief discussion of the environmental policy, as you know the EPA’s clean power draft was issued last year. While it is well-intentioned, it fell short in our view of addressing the importance of nuclear to achieving our national environmental goals. We continue to work on improving the plan. Notwithstanding the shortcomings of the initial proposal, however, we view the environmental discussion as progressing in the right direction. Furthermore, the EPA debate and the states roadmaps to implementing the plan are inextricably linked to the discussion around nuclear energy in Illinois that I just referenced as any solution must contemplate the state’s ability to comply and to do so cost effectively without the clean attributes of nuclear that will be impossible. The final ruling on the EPA’s plan has been pushed back to later this summer. Like many, we want clarity on the issue. However, we would rather the time be taken for the agency to get this right and design a rational emissions reduction policy for the country than to rush it through. We are confident that the EPA will issue a final rule that appropriately values our assets. The question that arises from all of these pieces is how do they fit together and will the resolution of these three policy issues translate to market-based compensation sufficient to maintain the economic viability of our challenged assets. That is what will play out over the next few months or longer. In the aggregate and individually, we view these potential policy changes as a positive driver for the Exelon fleet. If the PJM reforms are adopted, this should benefit all of our PJM nuclear assets. However, we have been clear that there is no silver bullet. Each plant has to stand on its own economic merits and it is unlikely that the PJM reforms in isolation will ensure the survival of each plant. One clear example of this is Clinton club, which is not in PJM and therefore will not be properly valued as a result of the PJM capacity market reforms. These plants need to be fairly recognized for both their unparalleled reliability and for their zero carbon attributes. Anything short of that recognition is insufficient and that is why we have been working diligently and simultaneously on all the fronts I have referenced. The fact is there is no other technology that produces reliable, zero carbon electricity. All of the alternatives are intermittent and far more expensive than keeping these plants in operation. Our customers will pay more if these assets are retired prematurely and need to be placed. We think policymakers get this and also understand what it means to lose these plants in terms of jobs and costs. We are optimistic that they will take the steps needed to ensure fair treatment of the units, because it is clearly in the customer’s and the state’s interest to keep these plants open. Finally, on the regulatory front, let me turn to a non-generation matter, which is of course the PEPCO transaction, which we announced last year. Getting the merger with PEPCO across the finish line is of course a very high priority for the company and things are progressing according to plan. We continue to anticipate a closing sometime in the second or third quarter of this year. We are pleased to have received approval from New Jersey earlier this week. And as you know, we have already received approvals from FERC and the state of Virginia. In Delaware, as noted in the letter to the commission that you have seen, we are close to a settlement. And if the settlement is reached, there may be an adjustment in the schedule. We are continuing the process of review in the remaining jurisdictions of Maryland and Washington DC. We believe the merger is in the public interest and we expect that the combined company to bring significant value to customers given our top-tier operational performance and the merger commitments we have made. We look forward to completing the regulatory process and closing the transaction on schedule. Thank you. And now, we will open up the floor for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Greg Gordon of Evercore-ISI.
Greg Gordon:
Thanks. Good morning guys.
Jack Thayer:
Hey, Greg.
Greg Gordon:
Jack, can you comment again on the – to revisit the comments you made on the earnings guidance for the utilities, because as I look at the $0.20 to $0.30 from BGE, $0.35 to $0.45 from PECO and $0.45 to $0.55 from ComEd, if I just take the exact midpoint there, that’s $1.15 versus $1.25 at the midpoint of the eyes that’s a $0.10 delta, not a $0.05 delta? Is there a reason why I am miscalculating that?
Jack Thayer:
No, Greg. The $0.05 delta was with respect to 2017. The 2015 guidance to your point is down $0.10. Some of that is just a mere factor of rounding. We speak in terms of $0.05 increments. And would say 2015 guidance is down on a relative basis, $0.05 year-over-year, although the rounding would indicate that is down $0.10, it’s just a matter of how we round it up or round it down our expectations.
Greg Gordon:
Okay. So the earnings power out in ‘17 of you three utility businesses is a nickel lower than your prior expectation, not a dime?
Jack Thayer:
That’s correct. And I think importantly there, you see the sensitivity we have to interest rates, primarily ComEd, you see the impact of the bonus depreciation, which has the CPS impact of lowering rate based and lowering expected earnings but also is the cash flow and savings related to that is a contributor to the $1 billion of incremental capital we see in ‘16 and beyond that we can deploy to grow both our utilities business as well as our merchant business.
Greg Gordon:
Okay. Another question, because I think there is a bit of an apples and oranges going on in terms of the discussion, now that you have given us an earnings guidance for this year, that includes the $0.12 dilution from the generation, from the asset sales that you are using to fund the Potomac transaction. As we roll into – if we assume that deal closed precisely on 12/31, is it accretive by $0.15 to $0.20? Is it accretive by $0.15 to $0.20 all things equal off this base or is it more accretive because you are also offsetting the dilution from the asset sales you used to fund the deal?
Jack Thayer:
The $0.15 to $0.20 number, Greg, that we referenced incorporates the net dilution associated with the asset sales. That said as I mentioned in the script, the earnings contribution from those assets, while admittedly $0.12 this year, because of the failure of Keystone and Conemaugh to clear capacity markets, the contribution from those assets diminished meaningfully off the curve. The $0.15 to $0.20 that I referenced we would anticipate in 2017, so that’s while you mentioned a close in 12/31 obviously per Bill’s comments we are anticipating a Q2 and Q3 close. We wouldn’t expect to see that all of that $0.15 to $0.20 until 2017, we will be certainly achieving part of that during the 2016 period.
Greg Gordon:
Got it. So, I get it, so the math on the earnings contribution from the assets sold, they would have been significantly less than the $0.12 contributor out in time?
Jack Thayer:
Correct.
Greg Gordon:
Okay. One more question, just in a little bit of the weeds on the forecast for O&M, you did call out increased O&M predominantly at BGE, ComEd, and ExGen and then you say that through ‘17, you expect 0.2% growth. Specifically at ExGen, as we get out into ‘17 is that growth rate sort of pro rata across all the businesses? Is ExGen’s O&M roughly static, because I know you are adding assets to the mix in ‘17? And I am wondering whether there is a significant increase in O&M associated with that or whether the totality of the O&M is still only growing nominally inclusive of those new asset additions?
Jack Thayer:
It’s pretty static, Greg. Certainly, we are adding those assets, the operating cost of which will increase. We added Integrys. We added ProLiance. We have announced in recent months both a waste-digesting plant out in LA, a pulp and biomass facility down in Georgia partnered with P&G. We are looking for incremental opportunities in that space. We are offsetting that in part with activities that we are pursuing broadly across the company to drive lower operating costs both within the embedded businesses – so Constellation, the power generation business, the nuclear business, as well as our business services corporation. So, on a kind of blended basis, we see relatively flat O&M further out the curve. Obviously, wage inflation is a component of that. Interest rates have been a meaningful factor of that in driving pension costs and the growth in the liabilities side of that higher. So, as CPI oscillates as interest rates move that will continue to be candidly something a little bit outside our control, but obviously something we are trying to focus on other things to offset.
Greg Gordon:
Great, thank you guys.
Jack Thayer:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Dan Eggers from Credit Suisse.
Dan Eggers:
Hey, good morning, guys.
Jack Thayer:
Good morning, Dan.
Dan Eggers:
Just following up on Greg’s question on the utility outlook, if you go back to a year ago when you guys gave guidance I think that kind of all these expectations are down about $0.15 today from where they were a year ago. Can you just bridge for me what has changed a year-to-year basis? And then if you thought about interest rates normalizing or pension normalizing, how much of the $0.15 erosion could you reasonably get back?
Jack Thayer:
I don’t know that Dan I can track you back to year end of 2013, but clearly you have seen a material degradation in the interest rate environment. As an example in 2014, the average 30-year was 3.34%. The interest rate for 30 years today is 2.63%. So, just with even – even within on an average basis of full year, the continued decline of interest rates and/or sensitivity to that through the formula rates at ComEd has been significant. For sensitivity, say 25 basis points up or down, and the interest rate is $9 million improvement or detriments to our expected revenues at ComEd. Obviously, the same element is impacting us from a pension liability side marry that with a change in the mortality tables and longer expected lives of our pension and OPEB participants. And that is a headwind – and that’s a headwind that we pass through, through the formula rate within ComEd. But we have to go through rate cases at PECO, and we have to go through a rate cases at BGE to recapture that. So, and then I guess the final element that’s changed, I think is given our load sensitivity of PECO and given some of our longer term load sensitivity of BGE and ComEd as we have continued to experience zero, and in some instances negative load growth that’s been a headwind as well. That said, we continue to see meaningful opportunities to deploy capital in that space. We see an opportunity to drive our customers’ reliability and experience. And importantly we see opportunities to earn a fair rate of return in those businesses. And as we are delivering and evolving a ray of services of our customer, even perhaps improve upon what we allowed to earn.
Dan Eggers:
Okay, got it. And I guess, just kind of on the deployment of capital conversation, what are you guys seeing in the ERCOT markets at this point in time underlying the new build decision, it seems like sparks have eroded since those plans were announced and obviously with maybe an economic slowdown, because of oil and gas drilling, there is a little bit of concern in the market, I suppose over demand growth?
Ken Cornew:
Yes, Dan, it’s Ken. We are very comfortable with our decision to invest in our combined cycle plants in Texas, and there are several reasons for it. First, the technology we have chosen, we think puts us in a significant competitive advantage. Again, as you know with the position in the stack, we would have as well the ramping capability in the units also cost advantage, given we own these sites. We have advantaged cost position that we don’t think it would be matched in the market. Importantly, we made this investment on our long-term fundamental views. And without talking about a re-assumption in our fundamental views, they are not – they are not drastically different than the environment we are seeing right now. We didn’t – we didn’t make a bet on massive load growth in Texas. We are very conservative in our assumptions. And the last thing I will say Dan is we have a significant load business in Texas as well. And having these plans and this capability and matching that capability with our load business is something, I think you are seeing it right now. We have proven that that is the value proposition that Exelon brings to table. And we expect that the investment in these plants will really enhance that value proposition in Texas.
Dan Eggers:
Okay. Thanks, Ken. And I guess Bill can you just walk us through what kind of a timeline we need to see in Illinois as far as draft legislation on carbon action and kind of progression to get something done before the recess in the summer.
Bill Von Hoene:
Yes, Dan. As you know the recess is scheduled or at least currently scheduled for the end of the May. And what we anticipate is that legislation consistent with the policy solutions outlined in the 1146 report will be introduced in the general assembly sometime within the next month. We are actively working with legislators, regulators and stakeholders with that in mind. So I would expect to see something surface within the next month and that will give ample time for the legislator to consider it. There will be hearings related to 1146 or possibly to the legislation specifically that will accompany that. But if this gets introduced as we anticipate within that next 30 days or so, it will give an opportunity to go through the full discourse in the legislature before the recess in May.
Dan Eggers:
Okay. Thank you, guys.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jonathan Arnold from Deutsche Bank.
Jonathan Arnold:
Yes, good morning, guys.
Chris Crane:
Good morning.
Jonathan Arnold:
Quick one first, just on Illinois and following up on Dan’s question, is there a sponsor that has emerged or sponsor of this or are you still kind of working that out?
Bill Von Hoene:
There is – Jonathan, there has been nothing publicly announced. There will be a significant number of sponsors and it will be bipartisan, but that won’t be revealed until the legislation itself is actually announced.
Jonathan Arnold:
Well, as you have said, you are expecting it to be broadly supported?
Bill Von Hoene:
Correct. We anticipate Republican and Democratic sponsors in significant numbers.
Jonathan Arnold:
In both houses or is it going to sort of emerge in one house and then go to the other?
Bill Von Hoene:
The mechanics, it is not yet been determined what the mechanics will be, but there will be adequate support and sponsorship in both houses to run it through the legislature.
Jonathan Arnold:
Great. And then if I could also just revisit the question on the regulated guidance, I am sorry to do this, but Jack when I look at the $1.11 starting point for 2014, which was pretty consistent with the EEI slide and your statement that 2017 is only down by a nickel in the midpoint, which would imply $1.35 versus $1.40. I think where I am having confusion is that you had said – you called that an 8% CAGR at EEI, but now you are saying 5% to 6%, but seems to me that the $1.11 to the $1.35 would be more like 6% to 7%. And 5% to 6% implies a bigger reduction. Can you speak to that at all?
Jack Thayer:
I think Jonathan we are talking about 100 basis points. And to be candid, the rounding issue comes into play. So, I think I would focus more on the $0.05 of degradation from EEI’s 2017 expectation to where we sit today. And some of that is an issue of the timing of capital deployment and other elements and I think we feel good about 5% to 6% growth. Ideally, we will endeavor to deliver higher growth that $1 billion of incremental spend in ‘16 and beyond is potentially a driver of that incremental growth.
Jonathan Arnold:
But the $0.05 is what we should really focus on?
Jack Thayer:
Yes.
Jonathan Arnold:
Got it. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Steven Fleishman from Wolfe Research.
Steven Fleishman:
Yes, hi, thank you. So not to beat a dead horse with that, does your viewpoint on the utility include any of the $1 billion being reinvested in it or is that, that would now be in additive?
Jack Thayer:
No, its additive.
Steven Fleishman:
Great.
Jack Thayer:
Incremental.
Steven Fleishman:
Thanks. And then just with respect to the Illinois legislation, I know there is other aspects of this, not just on nuclear plants. So, maybe you could give us a little bit of better sense of what else might be addressed in this legislation. I am assuming it’s also kind of renewables, but is there other aspects that would likely be in this?
Bill Von Hoene:
Steve, this is Bill. The legislation that we are referencing in the nuclear is standalone for the time being. There are going to be undoubtedly additional energy-related initiatives. There was a group that convened last week called the Clean Jobs Coalition, which was an environmentally directed group of a number of agencies and entities, which indicated that they will introduce legislation that will relate to energy efficiency to renewable standards and also to a cap and invest system that would be implemented in connection with 111(d). So, we anticipate that, that will be legislatively active and there undoubtedly will be a variety of other things that will be considered as well.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay. And just lastly and maybe to Joe on your kind of point of view in your hedging, it sounds just to kind of clarify, it sounds like you are particularly focused on future NI Hub prices being too low. Is that fair?
Joe Nigro:
Yes, Steve. I think there is two elements. I think you are correct when you think about the expansion opportunities, heat rates I think that’s primarily in NI Hub. I think from our perspective as well, we actually see upside to the natural gas markets, especially this maybe to a lesser extent in ‘16 and more so as you move out into ‘17 and ‘18 on the back of demand pickup and where prices are today and that would be true, for example, both at West Hub and NI Hub. You can see in the quarter that we sold less than our ratable plan, approximately 5% of our portfolio – total portfolio, whereas an average quarter, we would sell about 8% and we rotated out of a lot of the gas shorts that we had because of the big heat rate move we had. So, as we move forward as we build a position that falls behind ratable, it’s going to be done more on a, I’ll call it a flat-priced basis, where we are just going to take the power that we would have normally sold and just hold it in our portfolio and we will tailor that to locations and time buckets. NI Hub will be a big piece of that, but we will be looking at other areas as well depending on what we see in the gas market.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from UBS.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hi, good morning.
Jack Thayer:
Good morning.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
So, I wanted to ask a little bit of a bigger picture question here around the direction of the company vis-à-vis utility versus merchant. And as you think about that decision point, you have obviously made a couple of decisions over the past years, PEPCO namely, how were you thinking about positioning the company towards the merchant side of the business, specifically as you think about, a) potentially expanding nuclear and then b) specifically expanding into Texas, are either of those avenues palatable or desirable under a merchant expansion? And then more broadly, is a merchant expansion desirable at this point in time?
Jack Thayer:
So, we continue to look at both sides. The utility business as we talked about we can operate the utilities well. We can drive efficiencies in. We can improve the customer experience while we are getting returns. We are in a unique situation with ComEd on the formula rate at some historically low interest rates. We are not running from the investment – the utility business. We think interest rates will normalize and will be at the right place for the return. So, we will continue to make prudent investments and operate the utilities well there. On the merchant side, it’s all about the value proposition in looking at the specific investments. If a nuclear plant came available and we could fold it into the portfolio and see our adequate returns, we would certainly have the scale and the scope to put one in. We don’t see any out there right now, but newbuild is not an option. So, that’s the only way we get as acquisition. As we have said before, we do think Texas is one of the more interesting markets to invest in right now, and that’s why we are proceeding with organic growth down there. We do look at assets that come up from time-to-time in the ERCOT market. Most have been overvalued from our perspective on the long-term fundamentals. That’s why building these new technology units makes more sense to us. So, we will continue to look for opportunities on both sides of the business and use the balance sheet prudently to make the investments, but one thing that we – in the last couple of years as we do our asset valuations on an annual basis, recycling capital has become a focus and we will continue to watch that. If we see assets and others have more value and we can deploy that capital into other arenas, we will not be – we will not be shy of any divestiture. And that’s what we did this year with divesting assets and having the opportunity to use that capital into what we think is something that would be strategically valuable for us with PEPCO and also having the – creating the new balance sheet space to make the investments in new unit. So, we were still very confident in the model and confident in the investment thesis. And if low interest rates are hard on pensions and they are hard on the formula rates, but in the long run we see those coming back and we still think it’s a good investment in CC.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Alright, great. And then secondly, if you can comment more specifically around Ginna in New York, obviously there has been some development there, what’s your latest expectations if you can elaborate?
Bill Von Hoene:
Chris you want me to take that?
Chris Crane:
Joe is going to grab it.
Bill Von Hoene:
Thanks.
Joe Dominguez:
Julien, this is Joe Dominguez. We continue negotiating the RSSA with our counterparties up there in New York. I think you will see developments become public on that within the next few days to a week.
Julien Dumoulin-Smit:
Got it, fair enough. Thank you. Good luck.
Joe Dominguez:
Thanks.
Chris Crane:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Stephen Byrd from Morgan Stanley.
Stephen Byrd:
Good morning.
Chris Crane:
Good morning.
Stephen Byrd:
I wanted to – I think I had heard that on the call that Keystone and Conemaugh had not cleared in the PJM auction, and if that’s correct, I wondered if you can just elaborate on the rational, I thought of those as large well-operating co-plants, I am just curious what was the driver behind that?
Joe Nigro:
And Stephen, this is Joe. Good morning. There are a couple of reasons for that. First of all, as you know into the mechanisms afforded in the PJM model, you can calculate an avoided cost rate on each of your units. And we take the opportunity with our fossil units in particular and all of our fossil units to do that. And that’s just what I’d call our cost base line. And recognizing what we need from a cost perspective on those units we take that into account in our bidding strategy. And we have a host of other assets that we have to look at in particular to make sure that we are looking this in a proper sense from a total portfolio basis. And in the way that math worked for Keystone and Conemaugh in particular, it just didn’t clear given where the clearing prices were today for that particular option.
Ken Cornew:
So, Steven just a little to add to that, this is Ken, there are substantial costs at the plant associated with the environmental upgrades. That associated with the avoid the energy benefits that were very low from that 2009 to 2013 period drove the avoided cost rates up at those plants. And as we said before we – the market works when participants bid their costs, and that’s what we do.
Stephen Byrd:
Okay, great. Thank you. And just shifting to the utility, in terms of achieving the growth rates that you have laid out, what kind of low growth assumptions sort of your latest thinking that’s driving that growth?
Chris Crane:
Denis, do you get that?
Denis OBrien:
Stephen Byrd:
Okay, great. And the change in terms of the outlook from flat to – negative to flat to positive, what’s your – just at a high level view of what would drive that improvement in load growth?
Denis OBrien:
Stephen Byrd:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Operator:
And our final question comes from Hugh Wynne from Sanford Bernstein.
Hugh Wynne:
Thanks. The $435 million asset impairment charge in this quarter, how do you breakdown between Keystone, Conemaugh and upstream assets and others?
Jack Thayer:
Hugh, the total of overall long-live assets impairments that we had during the year, we had a wind impairment that was $0.06. We had a lease impairment that was $0.02. We had Quail Run assets held for sale impairment of $0.04. Keystone and Conemaugh was $0.29 of that. Upstream was $0.09 for a total of $0.50. On the flip side of that, we had $0.28 of gains related to the sale of Safe Harbor, sale of Fore River, again on the sale of West Valley. So, overall on a net basis, it’s about $0.22 negative impact on the year.
Hugh Wynne:
Okay. And then my question is for Bill. Bill, though you’re lawyer and you are talking about the potential implications of the Clean Power Plan EPS and Clean Power Plan, I just want to get your views as to the likelihood that the plan survives at all. I understand there has been challenges as to whether EPA has a authority to regulate CO2 under 111(d) at the – in the first place. And then secondly if it does, whether that authority extends to energy efficiency and renewables is this Clean Power Plan going to be with us in the long run or do you think it’s going to be whittled down or overturned altogether?
Bill Von Hoene:
Well, one thing that we can be abundantly certain of is that there will be litigation respecting whatever the final rule will be. But the basic tenants, Hugh, of the underpinnings of the rule are legally sound. The ability to regulate carbon emission has been already ruled upon by the United States Supreme Court and our expectation is that there will be litigation and there maybe modifications that result from that, but the basic underpinning of the rule will survive and will have the impact that will be significant in that scope.
Hugh Wynne:
Right, thank you very much.
Operator:
I would now like to turn the call back over to our presenters.
Jack Thayer:
So, thank you very much everybody for joining. As we laid out from an operation standpoint, very strong year, we continue to run well, continue to watch costs and contain where we can. The Constellation, the Generation business has done a very good job in this marketplace and we continue to see – feel very strong that, that will be continue to be supported. The utility side, the utilities are operating well as I said. We see the investment thesis as right. We know the sensitivity to the interest rates, but don’t think that’s a long-term sustainable issue and we will continue to keep investing. Thanks.
Operator:
This will be the end of today’s call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Francis Idehen - Investor Relations Chris Crane - President and Chief Executive Officer Jack Thayer - Chief Financial Officer Ken Cornew - President and Chief Executive Officer of Exelon Generation Joseph Nigro – Executive Vice President, Exelon, Chief Executive Officer of Constellation Joseph Dominguez – Senior Vice President, Federal Regulatory Affairs & Public Policy Denis O’Brien - Senior Executive Vice President, Exelon, Chief Executive Officer of Exelon Utilities
Analysts:
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research Greg Gordon - ISI Group Dan Eggers - Credit Suisse Stephen Byrd - Morgan Stanley Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank Hugh Wynne - Sanford Bernstein Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey Paul Fremont - Jefferies Paul Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets
Operator:
Good morning. My name is Reshira and I’ll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Q3 2014 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks there will be a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) Thank you. Mr. Idehen, you may begin your conference.
Francis Idehen:
Thank you, Reshira. Good morning everyone and thank you for joining our third quarter 2014 earnings conference call. Leading the call today are Chris Crane, Exelon’s President and Chief Executive Officer; Jack Thayer, Exelon’s Chief Financial Officer, and Ken Cornew, President and CEO of Exelon Generation. They are joined by other members of Exelon’s senior management team who will be available to answer your questions following our prepared remarks. We issued our earning release this morning along with a presentation, each of which can be found in the Investor Relations section of Exelon’s Web site. The earnings release and other matters that we discuss during today’s call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Actual results could defer from our forward-looking statements based on factors and assumptions discussed in today's material, comments made during this call and in the risk factors section of the earnings release. Please refer to today's 8-K and Exelon’s other fillings for a discussion of factors that may cause the results to differ from management's projections, forecasts, and expectations. Today’s presentation also includes references to adjusted opening earnings which is a non-GAAP measure. Please refer to the information contained in the appendix of our presentation and our earnings release for a reconciliation between the non-GAAP measures to the GAAP earnings. We have scheduled 60 minutes for today's call. I’ll now turn the call over to Chris Crane, Exelon's CEO.
Chris Crane:
Good morning, everybody and thanks for joining the call. We had another strong quarter from an operational perspective as well as a financial perspective. As we announced this morning, our operating earnings of $0.78 per share beat expectations and we remain on track to deliver on our financial goals for the year. Jack's going to discuss the financial performance in more detail in a minute. I am going to just focus on the broader strategy and operational issues. Our strategy continues to leverage the integrated business model that creates value using our strong balance sheet to invest in both regulated and competitive businesses to drive growth. Our investment in Pepco Holdings, Integrys and most recently the two Texas gas plants confirm our commitment to grow on both our regulated and our unregulated side of the business. Through this model our utilities contribute to earnings stability and provide dividend support while our competitive business provides exposure to market power upside. We are not just resting on the market power to turn around, we are continuing to invest in our core markets and competencies while pursuing opportunities to innovate in adjacent areas. And Ken will elaborate on that when I finish, in how we think about these markets. We own our assets that are more valuable to others -- when we own assets that are more valuable to others, then we will take a look at selling them as we continue to focus on our recycling of capital into stronger investments. You have seen evidence of that with our announcements on our asset sales this year and we will continue to optimize our portfolio going forward. What drives our success is our focus on operational excellence. Our nuclear fleet continues to run at high capacity factors, 96.5 for the quarter. Our power fleet had a 98.8 dispatch match in our renewable energy capture rate was 94.9. We also achieved very strong operational metrics in our utilities. Many of our growth areas we are pursuing, such as Pepco Holdings and the Texas gas projects, are directly tied to our ability to operate across our business at consistently high levels. Switching gears, I want to quickly discuss the capacity market design proposals. There has been a lot of progress at PJM in developing a new capacity performance product and making other designs changes. We are encouraged by PJM's acknowledgment of the value and reliability that comes from firm fuel, particularly given our nuclear units performance and their minimal additional cost of compliance for us for this proposed product. We are keeping a close watch on how the proposal evolves over the next several months and we will continue to remain engaged. On the Pepco Holding front, we continue to work through various regulatory approval processes. We received approval from Virginia earlier this month and we are working collaboratively with the other jurisdictions. We remain on track to close the transaction in the second or third quarter of 2015. On the nuclear front in Illinois particularly, we continue to engage with the stakeholders as the process goes forward on recognizing the value and the environmental benefit and the economic benefit of these plants to the state. That process as we have said before will continue to work through 2015. In closing, we are pleased with the results of the quarter. Exelon is operationally strong and positioned to deliver earnings expectations for the full year. We remain committed to deliver sustainable income and provide access to growth opportunities across the energy value chain. With that, I will turn it over to Ken to discuss in more detail what we're doing with our competitive generation business.
Ken Cornew:
Thanks, Chris, and good morning everyone. We had a very productive quarter at Exelon Generation announcing several development projects and an acquisition. Each of these initiatives leverages our operating and commercial expertise. We are investing in our core business and markets as well as adjacent markets to increase value. We are positioning Exelon to be at the forefront of and capitalize on the evolving energy landscape. We are pursuing investments that meet customer demands across both the electricity and gas value chains. Along those lines, last month we announced plans to build two CCGTs in Texas using a new GE technology that will make them among the cleanest, most efficient CCGTs in the state and in the nation. The units will be located on existing Exelon sites and will have a combined capacity of over 2000 megawatts, allowing us to build them for more attractive price relative to other new builds in the region. These first of a kind GE gas turbines will provide the highest efficiency and best operational flexibility in the market. The units are designed to ramp faster than any other see CCGT turbines allowing us to better capture market volatility and price movements. Importantly, being mindful of increased water efficiency in drought prone Texas, these units will be cooled with air instead of water. We expect construction to begin next year and commercial operation in 2017. Earlier this month we also announced an investment in NET Power. A first of a kind demonstration power plant in Texas that uses carbon dioxide as part of the combustion cycle and produces zero atmospheric emissions. The technology will ultimately produce pipeline quality CO2 that can be sequestered or used in various industrial processes including enhanced oil recovery. This technology is a potential game changer in reducing carbon emissions from power generation and is another step towards Exelon's vision of a clean innovative energy future. Finally, as you know, we announced the acquisition of Integrys Energy Services at the beginning of the quarter and expect to close that transaction in November. The combination creates a stronger, more diverse business that is well positioned to compete for customers in retail electricity and gas markets across the country. It vastly expands our gas portfolio increasing our load by 150 BCF annually. And it enhances our generational load strategy because many of the power customers currently served by Integrys are in regions where Exelon owns significant generation. Sifting to the power markets and hedging on slide three. Mild summer weather defined the markets during the third quarter. In July, spot markets cleared at relatively low prices on the back of low demand and strong natural gas supply. Forward market prices followed and bottomed out in the end of July. Since then, forward prices have recovered and are still well above where they were at the beginning of the year. Prices are up approximately $5 a megawatt hour in West Hub and $2.50 a megawatt hour in NI Hub for calendar year '15 and the move in 2016 heat rates and prices are similar. We believe the price increases are due to the impact of coal retirements as a result of mass implementation next year and we expect this trend to continue. NI Hub should be particularly sensitive to the coal retirements and our hedging strategy reflects that view. During the third quarter or portfolio management team performed very well. They executed on $150 million of power new business which allowed us to raise our full-year gross margin outlook by $50 million. In addition, we achieved $50 million of non-power new business. For 2015 and 2016 total gross margin is down $200 million and $250 million respectively. Divestitures during the quarter account for $150 million of the decrease in each year and in 2016 lower market prices accounted for the remaining $100 million. You all know that Exelon Generation stands to benefit significantly from changes in power prices, whether in energy or capacity markets, and we will continue to see improvements in both. In the meantime, we will continue to make investments in market-leading technology and expand our footprint in attractive markets through acquisition. I will now turn it over to Jack to review the full financial information for the quarter.
Jack Thayer:
Thank you, Ken, and good morning everyone. I will cover Exelon's financial results for the quarter, our full-year guidance range and update our cash outlook for 2014. Starting with our financial results on Slide 4. We had a strong third quarter and Exelon delivered earnings of $0.78 per share exceeding our guidance and in line with our results for the third quarter of 2013. At Constellation, both wholesale and retail performed well this quarter driving the overall performance at Exelon Generation. During the year we have seen dramatically different market conditions play out and our balanced generation to load strategy has benefited us in each circumstance. During the first quarter, our reliable, firmly fueled nuclear base load generation supplemented by our dispatchable fleet allowed us to take advantage of the volatility created by the polar vortex, while successfully managing our load obligations. Our portfolio benefits from our load serving business in periods of low volatility like we saw this summer. We experienced lower cost associated with ancillary services, load following costs, specifically hourly LMP shaping and variable load risks and power basis. Post polar vortex and with the expectation of greater volatility in the future due to coal plant retirements and market rule changes, we are charging appropriate load following costs. We have seen the success of this strategy throughout the market cycle. For the full year we are narrowing our guidance range to $2.30 to $2.50 per share from our previous guidance of $2.25 to $2.55 per share. We expect to deliver 2014 results comfortably within the revised full-year guidance range. One of our key assumptions is that bonus depreciation expires as scheduled. If extended by Congress, we will benefit economically with a positive cash flow impact of approximately $80 million in 2014 and in the ballpark of $1 billion in 2015. However, we would expect to see a $0.05 per share drag on our full-year earnings which is not factored into our current guidance for 2014 or 2015. Turning to utilities on Slide 5. They delivered combined earnings of $0.29 for the quarter. For the third quarter, ComEd earned $0.15 per share. We are on track to have a decision in our most recent formula rate case in December. On October 22, the Illinois Commerce Commission approved the Grand Prairie Gateway, 345 KV transmission line project. The nearly $260 million project will connect ComEd's Byron and Wayne substations, alleviating identified congestion and providing net savings to northern Illinois customers of more than $250 million within the first 15 years of operation. Construction of the transmission line is scheduled to begin in the second quarter of 2015 and the line is expected to be in service by the second quarter of 2017. Including this project, ComEd is on track to invest more than $1.7 billion in 2014, which is approximately $300 million more than last year. This includes over $400 million related to EIMA and is consistent with our investment strategy to continue improving reliability and system performance in the ComEd's service territory. PECO's earnings were $0.09 per share for the third quarter. Through the end of September PECO has substantially completed the installation of advanced meters and grid for electric customers. Nearly 1.5 million meters with an overall investment of approximately $700 million with $200 million of that funded by the DOE. We are well into the deployment of upgraded natural gas meter modules, installing more than 120,000 modules. We expect the installation will be complete in the second quarter of 2015. This technology brings significant benefits to PECO and its customers. In addition to helping the company further improve storm restoration and improve operational efficiencies, the technology also helps customers better understand and manage their energy use and cost. BGE delivered $0.05 per share this quarter. On October 17, BGE reached the unanimous settlement agreement on its rate case which was filed with the Maryland Public Service Commission. The settlement includes a total revenue requirement increase of $60 million between electric and gas. In addition, the settlement allows for a $20 million reduction in depreciation and amortization expense. This is the first BGE rate case settlement since 1999 and is the result of an improving regulatory environment in Maryland. It still must be approved by the Maryland PSC before it becomes effective. The earliest new rates would go into effect would be mid-December. Slide 6 provides an update of our cash flow expectations for this year. We project cash from operations of nearly $7.5 billion. This compares to $6.975 billion last quarter. The variance is primarily driven by additional proceeds from asset divestitures. Turning to our asset sale program. We announced agreement to sell our Fore River, Quail Run and West Valley units during the third quarter. Our total gross proceeds from these plants and Safe Harbor will be $1.3 billion. On an after-tax basis, net proceeds from these sales will be more than $975 million. Further, on October 24 we entered into a definitive agreement for the sale of our interest in Keystone and Conemaugh to an affiliate of ArcLight Capital Partners for $470 million of gross proceeds, inclusive of approximately $60 million of working capital or $418 million on an after-tax basis. We expect to close this transaction late this year or early next year. Please note that the sale of Keystone/Conemaugh is not included in our cash forecast or reflected in our commercial disclosures. We will update these disclosures on the fourth quarter call. However, we expect to take an impairment loss of $350 million-$450 million which will be reflected in the fourth quarter. This is non-operating and will not impact full-year EPS guidance. We anticipate closing the Integrys transaction in the fourth quarter. The purchase price and working capital of approximately $325 million is reflected in the cash from operations. On the financing side, we completed the $695 million financing of ExGen Texas Power, a diverse portfolio of CCGTs and peakers in ERCOT North and Houston zones. Since the third quarter of last year we have project financed approximately $1.75 billion, providing capital to allow us to explore growth opportunities for Exelon Generation. As a reminder, the appendix includes several schedules that will help you in your modeling efforts. Now I will turn the call over to Chris for his concluding remarks before we open the line for Q&A.
Chris Crane:
Before I turn it over Q&A, I want to close with some more remarks on Illinois. There has been a fair amount of speculation and some misreporting on what we're looking for in Illinois so I want to be clear. We are not looking for a bailout. We have a strong record of opposing non-market-based solutions not only in Illinois but in other states as well. What we are seeking to keep the plants operating is a solution that recognizes the clean attributes of nuclear as done with other sources that we compete against within this market. Examples of such a solution would be a clean energy standard or carbon regime like a RGGI, Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative. So there has been recent publications of reports that clearly articulate the significant contribution to the state and local economy as well as the environmental benefits from our nuclear plants, and we agree with those totally. Various state agencies including the state EPA and the ICC continue to work on the issue in a coordinated fashion and we hope that a positive conclusion will be reached by the end of the legislative session next May. So thank you and we look forward to seeing all of you at EEI and with that we will open it up for questions.
Operator:
(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Greg Gordon with ISI Group. I am sorry, your first question comes from Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research:
Sorry, Greg. So just a couple of quick questions. First, on the 2014 guidance update, the overall number is the same midpoint but it seems like there is $0.10 to $0.15 more at ExGen and $0.10 to $0.15 less at the utilities. Could you just kind of give a quick snippet of explanation for the changes in each?
Jack Thayer:
Sure, Steve. This is Jack. So I will start with the utilities where I think it's simplest. We have had significant storm expense this year, particularly at PECO and BGE. And then as you think about the formula rate at ComEd, interest rates, it's based of the 30-year treasury. As that's declined our allowed return has declined with that. So that's been a headwind for the year. And when you aggregate those, that's on the utilities side really kind of bringing down the expected contribution relative to plan from the utilities. That said, both the formula rate and increased rates of BGE have been an offset to that and been a positive for the year. On the Exelon Generation side, clearly you are seeing the benefit of a number of positive outcomes. Strong performance from Constellation. You are seeing the elimination benefit of the DOE fee. But we have had some increase outages this year. We have had higher costs associated with purchasing power during the polar vortex. So, again, speaking to the benefit of the balance load gen strategy, the opportunity to participate in the polar vortex and that volatility was a benefit at Constellation during the winter. The opportunity to have lower cost to serve during the summer was also a benefit at Constellation which I think you are seeing in the very strong improvement in the hedge disclosures as those positives have benefited our overall outlook.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research:
Okay. Great. And I guess one other question is, just in thinking about all the asset sales and your forecast. I guess when you give like 17 at EEI, will this money have been reinvested in something or is it all going into Pepco which you we are not, you won't have the numbers for Pepco in your guidance yet? So where is all that, yes?
Jack Thayer:
No, I understand the question. You will recall when we announced the Pepco transaction, we had highlighted that we would use $1 billion of those proceeds from asset sales to fund that investment. And at that time, we disclosed that we expected the impact of the asset sales, the lost contribution from those assets, the addition of Pepco, to be $0.15 to $0.20 accretive in 2017. The proceeds to date, as you know are in excess of that billion. We will have, including Key/Con, roughly $1.4 billon of after-tax proceeds. And we will incorporate that into our disclosures as we move forward. I would say that we believe that the very attractive prices that we have received are helping us to fund the growth, whether it's at the two combined-cycle plants in Texas, whether it's at the acquisition of Integrys, cash is somewhat fungible. But we are doing a lot that we think is very positive on the Exelon Generation side of our business to invest and grow.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Greg Gordon with ISI Group.
Greg Gordon - ISI Group:
So Steve, thankfully, did not ask my question. When we are looking at the gross margin update, just want to be clear on what is baked in and what isn't baked in. So you've just announced the sale of Key/Con, so the lower volumes and the lower gross margin associated with the sale of Key/Con are not yet factored in. Is that correct?
Jack Thayer:
That’s correct.
Joseph Nigro:
Steve, it's Joe Nigro. They are not factored into the disclosure.
Greg Gordon - ISI Group:
And is the Integrys acquisition factored in yet?
Joseph Nigro:
No.
Jack Thayer:
It is not.
Joseph Nigro:
It is not.
Greg Gordon - ISI Group:
Okay. So neither is factored in?
Joseph Nigro:
That’s correct.
Greg Gordon - ISI Group:
And when you give us the 2017, when you roll it, are you going to include an assumption for the contribution from the new Texas power plants or will they be up and running beginning of '17, middle of '17, end of 2017?
Joseph Nigro:
Yes. When we roll out '17 and EEI you will see the assumptions of the new Texas power plants in the open gross margin calculation.
Chris Crane:
And, Greg, we plan on having those units up and running prior to the summer of 2017.
Greg Gordon - ISI Group:
Great. Can you maybe spend a little bit more time explaining how you were able to reduce the cost of serving your load so much that you were able to put up a really strong quarter despite the fact that, I presume, you actually delivered variable load risk. Probably came in on the downside of your expectation of what you would serve in the quarter in terms of the load in the retail business. So can you explain a little bit more how you were able to more than offset that on the cost side?
Joseph Nigro:
Yes, Greg, there were really four elements to the success in the quarter and three of them are directly related to load. I think Jack said this and I will reiterate it. I think if you look at the first quarter, we got a huge benefit on the generation side because us like everybody else incurred substantial charges on our load book in Q1 but we got the benefit of the generation in the first quarter. In the third quarter, it was directly related to the fact that we had estimates of what cost to serve would be in three big buckets. One you just mentioned, the variable load shape. The second is there is ancillary service cost estimates and then the third piece is, and I am talking, let's stay in PJM for a second because we have quite a bit of load in PJM. We have estimates as to what specific location of cost or basis cost would be. In all three of those buckets, the cost came in substantially lower than what we were expecting them to be. And so we got the benefit of that by serving load at contracted prices. The fourth element which really isn't tied to load directly but it's more of a general portfolio management comment, is we benefited from our spot optimization as well. Shaping of our generation to match our load and running short schedules. Price protection to the downside that we have purchased prior to the quarter and got the benefit of. As well as when we did see some volatility we had some opportunity with our excess generation to capitalize on that as well. So really, it's truly a story of generation and load.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Dan Eggers with Credit Suisse.
Dan Eggers - Credit Suisse:
Just kind of following up on these asset sales. Can you help put in context the idea of selling down some PJM capacity ahead of RPM rule changes. The idea of investing in ERCOT before there is any demonstrative move and maybe some policy changes there? Just kind of how you guys are seeing these kind of two major power markets evolve that's maybe leading to some capital allocation decisions?
Chris Crane:
Dan, what don’t I speak to the assets sales side and then Ken can speak to the investment side within ERCOT. There's no question that the discussion and commentary around the proposed capacity performance market factored into the pricing. We started our process in advanced of that but the commentary was well understood by the buyers. It was factored into the pricing. And while we didn’t have absolute clarity on how that market will develop, certainly it played in the element in the investment decision for the buyer. Clearly we have an internal view on how that market will evolve and what it's near term and more importantly longer term impacts will be on asset values. And we have factored that into our decision to sell Key/Con as well. As you will know, we were close to $1 billion of net proceeds. We didn’t need to sell this asset. We viewed it as a very attractive price and one that viewed as an opportunity to recycle that capital and invest in Texas opportunity and others. Ken?
Ken Cornew:
Yes, Dan. I am sure you realize at this point we have been working on this Texas opportunity for a while now. We had sites that were set up very well to construct. Bringing GE and Exelon together was very leveraging in terms of putting the best technology forward that we could and doing at a very very low cost. And we are excited about the ERCOT market and its fundamentals going forward. We think that these plants will show up right about at the right time when ERCOT needs power and we think we have a technology and location advantage that obviously we have been working on and we are implementing that strategy as such. So for us this is a deployment to better technology. It's a deployment to lower cost and a deployment to more upside for ExGen.
Dan Eggers - Credit Suisse:
Ken, when you think about the ERCOT market, you highlight the air cooled nature of these plants and with the CSAPR rules kind of evolving or coming back again. Are those having bearing or is there a way to think about the economic value of both CSAPR coming back and maybe water use issues in Texas as to help put this in a better cost position?
Ken Cornew:
Clearly our strategy to go air cooled is a good one for Texas given the water constraints that are there. And our strategy to put efficient, clean, lowest in the stack combined-cycle is going to be constructive in environmental regulation space. That’s all upside for us. We looked at the economics of these plants, where they sit on the stack and how they can respond to price movements and they will stand on their own because of that. And I think what you mentioned is potentially even more upside.
Chris Crane:
Let me just elaborate on the water side. When you go to build a new asset and you try to secure water in the ERCOT market, you are building a 20 to 30 year asset with a contract that can only extend for three years. The air cooled nature of these assets guarantee their availability and their capability of returning value for many years to come while they, as Ken pointed out, they have the best mechanical heat rate and the best ramping speed to capture and to operate in a market that’s heavily saturated with renewables.
Dan Eggers - Credit Suisse:
Okay, got it. I guess one last question just on the CO2 front. There is kind of two big gubernatorial elections in Illinois and Pennsylvania this year. In Illinois, what has been the comments I guess between the two candidates, or is there any difference in willingness to consider supporting if somebody puts the value on the nuclear assets? And then in Pennsylvania, I believe candidate Wolf has come out in favor of some carbon policy. Where do you guys see that potentially playing through?
Joseph Dominguez:
This is Joe Dominguez. I think you have captured it well in Illinois, I think the -- excuse me, in Pennsylvania. I think candidate Wolf has talked about joining RGGI if he becomes the governor. And I think that would be their compliance mechanism, at least based on what he said. Obviously, if Corbett remains in offices, he has been opposed to carbon trading regimes historically. So that’s a big toggle there. In terms of Illinois, there hasn’t been a lot of focus on who the different candidates would deal with carbon going forward. Not an opposition certainly to carbon trading from either candidate at this point. We think both will recognize the inherent value of nuclear, both from a reliability and claims standpoint. So we don’t think the game changes materially depending on the gubernatorial election and what's going on.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Stephen Byrd with Morgan Stanley.
Stephen Byrd - Morgan Stanley:
I wanted to talk about the forward power market versus fundamental view that you have. Since March we have seen the PJM East on peak heat rates for 2016, rise about 3500 from about 12,000 to 15,500. When you look at your fundamental view of heat rates and then also sort of new build economics when you combine capacity prices plus spark spreads which were 16 or up about 40% at PJM East. Can you give us your view on your fundamental power view relative to the forwards?
Joseph Nigro:
Yes. Stephen, it's Joe Nigro. If I start in PJM East, I would say that in the '15-'16 timeframe we think that the PJM West hub prices are generally fairly priced. There is a small big of upside in '16. When you go out to '17--'18, we do see increasing upside. I think on the NI Hub side, it's safe to say that there is quite a bit of upside both in the '15-'16 timeframe and more so in '17-'18. And some of that is related to the facts that you just have better liquidity in the front end of the curve, 2015 in particular. And we have seen quite a bit of heat rate expansion as you mentioned in the last few months in '15 related to the back end. That all takes into account normal weather and normal operations. Some of the changes that PJM is talking about related to things like dynamic reserves that they are looking at implementing in the course of the year, would be incremental upside to what I'm talking about and it's not factored into our fundamental focused. From a fundamental forecasting perspective, we spend a lot of time scrubbing the stack as to what we expect to be added into the stack and what changes we would expect. I think it's safe to say, when you look at the new build economics for CCGTs in the Midwest, they are pretty challenged given the fact where energy prices are and the associated capacity prices. You are much closer to breakeven economics in the mid-Atlantic. And that gets into where the market spark spreads are and where the capacity prices are but they are generally close to breakeven economics.
Stephen Byrd - Morgan Stanley:
Okay. Thank you. The first part of what you said, Joe, you were talking about PJM West. Was that also designed to cover PJM East or what's (indiscernible) that I understood the first part ?
Joseph Nigro:
They are generally pretty close. There's probably slightly more upside at, let's call PJM West hub then there is at East hub. And there would be increasing upside as you move further west in PJM to NI Hub for example.
Stephen Byrd - Morgan Stanley:
Okay. Understood. So PJM East in your view is more closer to fair value...
Joseph Nigro:
Yes.
Stephen Byrd - Morgan Stanley:
But not overstated. Okay. And then shifting over to the utility. We just talked a little bit about PECO and low growth expectations. Longer term beyond, it just looks like for this quarter and next quarter, the low growth numbers are a bit lower than before. Can you talk a little bit more fundamentally about the PECO territory and your thoughts on load growth longer term?
Chris Crane:
Denis, you want to cover that?
Denis O’Brien:
The longer-term load growth in all three areas is really pretty flat. I mean I think we may see load growth anywhere between a zero and 1% over the next few years but we are not seeing anything now really significant.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Jonathan Arnold with Deutsche Bank.
Jonathan Arnold – Deutsche Bank:
Could I ask a question about how you see demand response playing out, particularly in PJM? I mean you are obviously a large owner of utilities and PJM seems to have the strategy that DR is going to reorganize itself under the umbrella of states and utilities. So sitting on both sides of that equation, do you have a view on how this can work and what the impact on sort of the amount of that product in the market might be under different scenarios? Anything you could say there?
Joseph Dominguez:
Sure. Jonathan. This is Joe Dominguez again. Obviously a very dynamic situation. We have a court order delaying the mandate at FERC. We will see if FERC is able to move forward with an appeal to the Supreme Court. So the decision isn't final until at least that determination is made. We think demand and the response is a very important tool in the market. It's an important tool for customers. It helps to keep prices low. And as long as it does exactly the same thing as generation, we think it needs to be a component of the market. We have looked at the white paper that PJM circulated. I think it begins a good discussion. Obviously, if the LSEs are going to be in the contracting role for DR, there has got to be a lot of work done between FERC, the states and the industry ultimately to make sure the product is defined appropriately in a uniform manner and then is included in the load forecast. We think that makes a lot of sense. As you know, FirstEnergy has filed a complaint and they had some requested relief to strip out DR out of the markets and rerun the last option. We don't support that. What we do support, prompt action by FERC to define the new DR market to work with the states to implement it. But to close, we see it as a continuing and important tool and there is a good deal of work in our view to be done in how it gets defined and implemented.
Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank:
Do you think that implementation can practically be achieved by next May's auction in the same type of scale that it's at today?
Chris Crane:
No, I don't think so. I think the timing is going to be very difficult. Particularly if FERC appears the matter to the Supreme Court, we are not going to have a decision by the Supreme Court in all likelihood until March which is going to be a challenge for all the stakeholders to develop programs and have it implemented, assuming the appeal isn't granted. If it is granted, I think things will obviously stay and we will all wait the decision from the Supreme Court. But even if the Supreme Court doesn't hear the matter, it's going to be hard to imagine that we will have all the predicate work done to fully involve DR to the full extent that it's already participating, which was your question. That's different than saying that there can be no DR participation. I think we will get some DR participation on the load side even if the timing is constrained. Just probably not as much as we have seen.
Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank:
Okay. Great. Thank you for that. Can I ask just on another topic. On the Illinois process, Chris, I think at the outset you said you think that it will continue through 2015 but then you also said you are hoping that there will be some sort of determination by the time the legislature wraps up. Could you just maybe elaborate a bit more on what you see the steps in this process to be and timing of them?
Chris Crane:
Yes. At the end of the last session there was mandates given by the legislature to different state agencies to review the environmental and economic support of these units that are in Illinois. That is ongoing. And as I mentioned, it's a coordinated, collaborative process and dialogue that's underway right now. I wouldn't speculate what the final outcome look. We are suggesting, is their potential for a clean energy standard as we have discussed before. That has to be vetted through to see if that's the right avenue going forward. We are just holding that it needs to be a market-based reform in support of the assets as the state currently supports renewables, clean coal and other sources. So the sources we compete against are already recognized for the value that the provide and that's what we are looking for. So we had made the agreement with the states since they were open to having discussions about compensating for the value that they provide, that we would slow any decision on what the long-term aspects or the long-term viability of some of the plants would be. And so we hope that we see a path clear by the end of this session coming up in May. And if not, we will have discussions on the other side, looking at the economics of the plants.
Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank:
My memory says that the state agencies were supposed to come out in November. Is that correct and do you still -- are you expecting that to happen on time?
Chris Crane:
Yes. Actually they have a window between November 15 and January 15 to issue those reports. So the earliest we will see in is November 15. Hard to say whether they are going to hit the earlier part of the target but I am very confident that they will get their work done within the 60 day period.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Hugh Wynne with Sanford Bernstein.
Hugh Wynne – Sanford Bernstein:
You are obviously intermittently involved in discussions around the reforms to the PJM capacity market architecture and I am sure you have modeled the potential impact of the various different changes that have been proposed. I was wondering if, similar to the detailed discussion that you provided of your expectations for energy prices, you might provide more color on what you expect the impact of the proposed reforms to be over what period of time. And perhaps also give us your assessment of the likelihood of these reforms being accepted by FERC in time for the next auction?
Chris Crane:
So we don't want to speculate. The process is very fluid right now on the design and how it would go forward. So we don't want to speculate or start to put a stick in what we think the value is to us. We first want to get the design right so we understand that the capacity will be there and the system will be secure. As the process moves forward we may be able to do that but it's some time off. We believe that the commitment that PJM has made and their board has made to addressing this process or to addressing these revisions to the process, will be done in a timely enough manner to allow FERC to review and make judgment before the next auction. So we feel good about that part of it but it's too early to speculate on value proposition here.
Hugh Wynne - Sanford Bernstein:
Just a follow-up on that. You've in the past, obviously have been quite bullish in your forecast about energy prices in PJM and to a certain degree that's played out. Yet the decision to invest when it was taken was taken in Texas. Could you comment on the relative economics of the two markets. Why you favor Texas over PJM and whether the prospective changes in the capacity market in PJM might allow you to make a similar new build decision in the future closer to your core markets?
Chris Crane:
Sure. There is a couple of ways to look at that. One is, we have is still a significant upside to the energy and capacity market in PJM. The divestiture of our partial ownership in those assets will not be material, depending on which way the market goes. We have talked in the past about continued geographic diversification of our generating portfolio. ERCOT is a core market. It's not an adjacent market. It's one that we work in now with our wholesale and retail portfolio, our generating assets. We have continued to maintain a very positive stance on ERCOT and stated previously that we will continue to look for opportunities to invest in it. And that's what these units are. The technology, the Brownfield location, the nature of their cooling will allow them to to take a spot in the dispatch stack that will allow us to recover the value that we need for making such an investment. We continue to monitor the PJM market. The needs for generating assets. In some areas we are somewhat constrained based off of the market power, a view of where we would want to build plants or could build plants. But there may be potential opportunities coming forward as plants retire and the market tightens and the capacity market revisions come in that we might be able to deploy the technology that would give us the return on value that we are seeing in ERCOT market.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Ali Agha with SunTrust.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey:
In the opening remarks you all had stated that in the gross margin numbers, taking out Safe Harbor and the three gas-fired plants, I think took out about $150 million annually from the gross margins. Just to complete that picture on a pro forma basis. If you take out Keystone/Conemaugh, how much further reductions should we assume just from a pro forma basis?
Jack Thayer:
It would be roughly $150 million in 2015 in gross margin and about $100 million in 2016.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey:
Just from those two divestitures?
Jack Thayer:
Correct.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey:
Got it. And then second question. Jack, you alluded to Pepco and the net impact in '17 from that acquisition. Can you remind me, the equity units, $1.15 billion, if I recall correctly, they have to be converted into equity in mid-'17...
Jack Thayer:
That's right.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey:
At the then prevailing equity price. Is that correct?
Jack Thayer:
That's correct.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey:
Okay. And so in your [revision] (ph) obviously you...
Jack Thayer:
Ali, obviously a floor of $35. We participate in the upside if the shares are higher at that point all the way up to a 25% premium.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey:
Got it. Okay. And so in your math obviously you have made that conversion when you were running that math?
Jack Thayer:
Absolutely.
Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey:
Okay. And my last question for you guys. Chris, obviously you've been fairly active on the divestiture front with your capacity. You are building Greenfield plants in Texas. As you look at the landscape right now, are you seeing more opportunities to buy or sell given the kind of prices that may be out there for existing assets?
Chris Crane:
Yes. Just to clarify, the assets in Texas are on Brownfield sites and that helps their cost basis significantly with the infrastructure to support the plants already being there. Right now the market has priced assets higher than we, in some cases higher than we can see that value ourselves. And we have participated, will continue to participate in the sales process looking at the potential purchase of assets as they come to the market. But they have been trading at, as we see, a premium. And that was what led us to the divestiture of some of the assets that we have. They didn't have the earnings capability with their dispatchability and their capacity factors or the nature of the agreement of ownership that we value them as well as others in the market are willing to pay. So we don't see much more in the way of asset optimization beyond what we have discussed previously. We will continue to participate. But we do see other markets as a potential investment on a new build. If it's peakers in some areas or highly efficient units in others. But don't expect to see a lot of transactions either way just because of the market values on them right now.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Paul Fremont with Jefferies.
Paul Fremont - Jefferies:
I guess my first question is that PJM is talking about incremental auctions as part of their capacity performance transition plan. Can you speak to the effect of re-running past auctions on retail contracts that you currently have outstanding and whether those contracts would somehow have the ability to reprice?
Jack Thayer:
First of all, we think the impact would begin in '16,'17, so not in the '15, '16 timeframe. And as you know, most of our contracts are called within that 30 month tenure. Contracts that would be affected we believe on the fixed price side contracts that the change in law clause would be relevant in this instance, and we would invoke that given the changes that we are talking about.
Paul Fremont - Jefferies:
So you would have some ability to pass through the cost?
Chris Crane:
Correct. To our retail -- in most instances. There are instances on our retail customers where you can't but in most instances you can.
Ken Cornew:
And, Paul, this is Ken. I would just add that we have been aware of this situation or what I would call exposure risk and are treating it appropriately in our pricing of customers as we continue to compete for them.
Jack Thayer:
And the retail component of it is only one side of it. As you transition into these things there is going to be a generation benefit on the other side. So you would have to look at the net effect of all that.
Paul Fremont - Jefferies:
And then when we think of the capacity performance market and what you are asking for potentially either in New England or New York with your nuclear plants, what would the implementation of this type of a scheme by PJM do with respect to your desire to have some form of fixed price protection for the nuclear plants?
Jack Thayer:
I think what Chris has been saying is, we are not looking for fixed price protection in the way of a PPA or a guarantee of a price. What we see the reform is doing is, in the first instance, curing a real reliability problem that we have in PJM. The problem that we see growing worse over the next few years. And that's the first and most important focus of our work. What it will do is it will provide potential additional compensation for firm fuel resources. Resources that are reliable, like nuclear units. And it will punish resources that don't perform well. And what we saw out of this past winter is a lot of units did not perform well and that's created a real problem that needs to be addressed. But it really, it doesn't relate, I don't think to anything that would provide a guarantee of a payment for the nuclear assets. It's not nuclear specific. Any unit that performs well and secures its fuel will have the opportunity to earn a little bit more. Those units that don't perform well and don't have firm fuel will be exposed to severe penalties for non-performance which is the way it should be.
Paul Fremont - Jefferies:
I guess I'm still not understanding. So what additional support would the states potentially be providing under in terms of compensation for those units?
Jack Thayer:
I think we are mixing two things. We are mixing a reliability need that's going to be addressed by the PJM reforms. The reforms in terms of 111(d) and zero emission energy is the focus of our work at this day. And as Chris said, over the last six years Illinois has passed laws that essentially provide market-based credit opportunities for all types of zero emission energy with the exception of nuclear. And the focus of our activities in Illinois will be to include nuclear and give it an opportunity to compete on a best price basis for those clean air attributes.
Chris Crane:
We have made it clear over the last three years in a very pointed way the unintended consequences of subsidizing one clean source against another. And the unintended consequences come to roost. And so what we are trying to is fix what has happened between the subsidized PTCs and other forms of enablement for those more expensive sources to come to market. So we are looking at the market fix in what would be a fair treatment of all the renewable or clean generating assets within the market.
Paul Fremont - Jefferies:
And then my last question is, in Texas, what would you estimate is sort of the lower cost to build at your existing site per KW?
Chris Crane:
Yes. We have said we are spending about $1.4 billion on these plants and they are going to be in excess of 1000 megawatt each. So you can do the math. It's going to be our around 700 a KW.
Operator:
And your last question comes from Paul Ridzon with KeyBanc.
Paul Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets:
You touched on this a little bit, but could you just go back to kind of the upside that you saw in the third quarter. Was it all ExGen or was it at the utilities as well?
Ken Cornew:
The benefit in the third quarter was exclusively ExGen.
Paul Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets:
Did it make up for some shortfalls at the utilities?
Ken Cornew:
You had some storm expense at the utilities. Then you also had elements of the decline in interest rates around treasuries factoring into our earned return at ComEd.
Paul Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets:
So relative to your guidance, the utilities underperformed and that was more than offset by ExGen?
Ken Cornew:
I would say they modestly underperformed and it was meaningfully offset by ExGen.
Paul Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets:
Great. Thank you, very much.
Francis Idehen:
Okay. Thank you, very much. That will conclude the third quarter call.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Ravi Ganti – Vice President-Investor Relations Christopher M. Crane - President and CEO Jonathan W. Thayer – EVP and CFO Joseph Nigro – EVP-Exelon; CEO-Constellation Joseph Dominguez – SVP-Federal Regulatory Affairs & Public Policy
Analysts:
Dan Eggers – Credit Suisse Steve Fleishman – Wolfe Research Greg Gordon – ISI Jonathan Arnold – Deutsche Bank Hugh Wynne – Sanford Bernstein Angie Storozynski – Macquarie Capital
Operator:
Good morning, my name is Amy, and I’ll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the second quarter 2014 earnings call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) Thank you. Mr. Ravi Ganti, you may begin your conference.
Ravi Ganti:
Thank you, Amy. Good morning everyone, and thanks for joining our second quarter 2014 earning conference call. Leading the call today are Chris Crane, Exelon’s President and CEO; Jack Thayer, Exelon’s Executive Vice President and CFO, and Joe Nigro, CEO Constellation. They are joined by other members of Exelon’s senior management team, who will be available to answer your questions following our prepared remarks. We issued our earning release this morning along with a presentation, each of which can be found in the Investor Relations section of Exelon’s website. The press release and other matters that we discuss during today’s call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. The actual results could defer from our forward-looking statements, based on factors and assumptions discussed in today's earning release, comments we do in this call, and in the risk factors section of the earnings release. Please reported today's 8-K and Exelon’s other fillings for a discussion of factors that may cause the results to differ from managements projections, forecasts, and expectations. Today’s presentation also includes references to adjusted opening earnings which is a non-GAAP measure. Please report to the information contained in the appendix of our presentation and the earnings release for reconciliation between the non-GAAP measures to the GAAP earnings. We have scheduled 60 minutes for this call. I’ll now turn the call over to Chris Crane, Exelon, CEO.
Christopher M. Crane:
Thanks, Ravi. Good morning to everybody and thank you for joining. We had a good quarter overall, but before I get into those details I wanted to start today’s call by re-emphasizing Exelon’s long-term strategy. Our strategy is to continue to leverage our integrated business model to create value, invest for growth, and explore ways to diversify our business into other areas of the energy value chain. The utilities provide stable earnings in dividend support and allow us to reinvest in projects to strengthen the infrastructure. Our competitive business provides commodity upside, and the platform to diversify into adjacent markets. On the regulated side, the Pepco Holdings transaction provides an opportunity to accelerate our regulated growth, and provides stable cash flows, earnings accretion and dividend stability. The geographic fit in the operational synergies provide us the opportunity to deliver better customer service. On the Genco side, we continue to look for ways to grow in the existing markets we serve, and diversify into other related areas. Our partnership with Bloom Energy Fuel Cells is aligned with our goals of keeping up with our customer needs and the growth demand for distributed generation. Our acquisition of the Integrys Energy Services business allows us to expand our retail footprint further in an industry that continues to mature, consolidate, and provide hedging diversification benefits for our existing portfolio. Similarly, our interest in the Annova LNG is another example. We are significant participants in natural gas market, managing approximately 1.4 trillion cubic feet of gas on an annual basis. This project fits nicely in this business and aims to develop mid-scale, LNG facility near Port of Brownsville, Texas. It’s in its early stage of screening for development with very little financial commitment for us at this moment, but has significant potential upside. So you can expect that we will continue to look for, and find diversification opportunities that leverage our expertise and strengths. Moving on to the quarterly results, we posted a solid quarter with operating earnings of $0.51 per share, which is just over the upper end of our guidance range. For the full-year, we are reaffirming our guidance range of $2.25 to $2.55 a share, which we provided to you at the beginning of the year. Jack is going to go into more details about the earning in our financial performance in his remarks. On the operational front, we had a solid operational performance at our nuclear fleet this quarter. We achieved 91.8% capacity factor while completing five refueling outages during the second quarter. After completing our spring refueling outages, we ran at 98.8% for the month of June. These capacity factors include our ownership share of the CENG plants, which became integrated into the Exelon operations platform on April 1. Our gas renewable fleets had a strong quarter as well with fossil hydro dispatch match at 99.2% and our solar and wind energy capture at 94.7%. ComEd and PECO had significant storms around the end of the quarter and on the last day of the quarter we had severe weather including multiple tornados in Illinois that caused service interruptions to over 420,000 customers in the ComEd service territory. PECO faced two storms on July 3 and July 8 that left more than 400,000 customers without power. In the matter of three days, or a little less, the power was restored to over 99.9% of those affected, demonstrating a storm response capability of our organization. I'd like to thank those personnel that were involved for the quick and rapid response. On the regulatory side, ComEd filed its most recent annual distribution and transmission formula rate update in April. BGE filed its electric and gas distribution rate in early July. In early June, the EPA came out with its much anticipated draft rule for greenhouse gas regulations for existing power plants that set limits on emission by 2013. We see this as a potential positive for Exelon, and we are pleased that the rule recognizes the critical importance of the Nation’s nuclear generation as vital to achieving the proposed standard. While it's too early to draw sweeping conclusions about state-by-state impact given the complexity of the rule in the time afforded to the states to respond, we think that our clean base-load nuclear fleet is well-positioned to take advantage of the potential changes in the stack composition and the generation mix that this will achieve. Let me give you a quick update on the Pepco Holdings transaction. So far we have submitted filings with Burke, Virginia, DC, New Jersey, and Delaware. We continue to expect this transaction will close in the second to third quarter of 2015. We've made progress on funding the acquisition as well. We had a successful equity issuance in June and asset sales are proceeding, including our sale of our ownership in Safe Harbor that is expected to close in the third quarter. Jack is going to go into more of the specifics around this area. Touching upon the state of the power markets. Despite the recent pull-back due to mild weather across the U.S. and higher gas production and injection rates, the forward power prices are still higher year-to-date. 14 gigawatts of coal assets that are set to retire in the PJM footprint by next year are still operating. Current weather and expected gas storage levels are going to dictate the forward power prices in the near-term. We saw high, spot wild volatility in the markets during the first six months of the year, and have seen higher risk premiums and margins for wholesale and retail load products. We aggressively hedged during the quarter, and moved closer to our ratable hedging strategy capturing the upside prices we saw during the quarter. Joe Nigro is going to go into more details in his comments. On the PJM auction results, as you know, the auction cleared at $120 a megawatt day, it was higher than most anticipated due to primarily, the rule changes around lower imports, lower demand response, and participants bidding behavior. We think the results are encouraging for our plants that cleared, but there is an opportunity for further improvements in the market rules in the future, such as, firm fuel commitments, anti-speculation rules, and with the recent ruling, court ruling looking for clarity on the role of demand response, energy efficiency in the capacity markets. Our nuclear units
Joseph Nigro:
Thank you, Chris. Good morning, everyone. We wanted to take some time to talk about power markets developments this quarter, as well as year-to-date. I will also touch on our generation hedging strategies, discuss the results of the 2017-2018 PJM capacity auction, provide an update on those margins. And finally, tell you how this translates to our gross margin forecast. Moving to Slide 3, the spot power markets in the first half of the year have been defined by volatility. We have had six months of very constructive spot market signals, followed by July weakness due to weather conditions. In the first quarter of this year, the polar vortex led to higher spot prices in PJM, as we observed the growing reliance on resources such as natural gas units, demand response and oil peakers. Throughout the second quarter, we saw spot power prices were higher than what we saw during the same period in 2012 and 2013. Expanding heat rates have been observed under most load conditions. These higher delivered heat rates can be attributed to the change in generation stack. During July, we’ve experienced, unusually mild weather leading from lower spot power and deliver natural gas prices across the board. Cooling degree dates are trending approximately 10% below normal at a national level, and 35% below normal in the NI Hub area. Due to the lack of weather related demand in July, spot prices in PJM have been clearing lower than the previous two years. Moving to slide 4, I’ll discuss the forward market and its impact on our hedging profile. It has been a volatile year for forward power prices. The second quarter of 2014 was a continuation of the trend we saw in the first quarter, in terms of an increase in both power prices and heat rates at the NI Hub and West Hub markets. During the second quarter, forward NI Hub, around-the-clock prices for 2015 and 2016 increased approximately $2 to $3 per megawatt hour, while West Hub prices increased by close to $2. A lot of the increase with in line with our long-held that power prices should increase, giving the ongoing changes to the generation stack associated with coal plant retirements, and an increased reliance on natural gas supply and other high priced, non-based load resources. During the second quarter, we were able to take advantage of the rising power prices and move our behind ratable strategy, as well as our cross-commodity hedge position closer towards ratable. And we have been operating behind our ratable hedging strategy for some time as we felt the upside in the market of both NI hub and West Hub warranted a more open position. During the quarter, we captured the running forward prices increasing our hedge generation by approximately, 11% in 2015 and 9% in 2016. We also took advantage of market conditions by reducing the amount of our portfolio that was hedged with natural gas from near 10% to below 5% in both 2015 and 2016. In total, we reduced our power price exposure in 2015 and 2016 by 17% and 12% respectively. Our generation fleet is now hedged between 92% and 95% in 2014, 75% and 78% in 2015, and 46% and 49% in 2016. Since the end of the second quarter, we have seen forward markets soften due to the weather-related weakness in spot market. Forward prices for natural gas – natural gas basis, and power are down during the month of July. The move down is largely driven by decline in the prices for the winter delivery months. Specifically, PECO M3 natural gas basis is declined heavily in the winter months, which is led to a corresponding decrease in both West Hub and NI Hub power prices. Spot natural gas basis prices were strong in Q1, driven by weather conditions, but were lower in Q2 as weather driven demand backed off. The forwards responded accordingly with 2015 gas basis increasing through the first part of the year, only to decline during May and June. Our gas basis dues split into a short-term and long-term view. Over the next two years, we expect volatility to continue; while longer-term, we expect the stability in the Mid-Atlantic base is driven by the development of the infrastructure to transport gas away from the Marcellus shale area, expanding LNG exports, exports to Mexico, industrial expansion and gas demand for power generation. With respect to the forward power market, we still see upside price opportunity in certain non-winter months and seasons where we believe the markets are undervalued. While we have moved our hedging strategy closer to ratable, and more neutral across the calendar years in 2015 and 2016, we think there is an opportunity to benefit from power price upside in those delivery periods. We will continue to set our hedging strategy according to this view. Fundamentally, our view of power price upside has not changed. We understand that there are very short-term factors that can impact spot and forward prices, as we saw in the winter and then again, in July this year, weather by itself can have a significant short-term impact on the market. However, our view is grounded in the fundamental changes that are taking place in the market. Specifically, we expect about 30 gigawatt of coal generation to require – to retire across the Eastern Interconnect, by next year, with which approximately 14 gigawatts will be in PJM. Changes in this supply stock and more disciplined load pricing are just a few of the fundamental market changes we have witnessed this year. Before moving onto our gross margin update, I want to touch on the PJM capacity auction and then an update on our retail margins. The PJM auction cleared at $120 per megawatt day in both the RTO and NERC regions. The RTO clearing price doubled from the previous year’s auction, indicative of tighter supply demand fundamentals following coal retiring announcements. The clearing prices were primarily driven by 3,000 megawatts at lower imports, 1,400 megawatt of lower demand response, and participants bidding behavior. These drivers were partially offset by nearly 6,000 megawatts of new generation that cleared. There are further potential market design changes that we will continue to monitor, which will impact future capacity prices as well. Some examples of this include uncertainly regarding the impact on capacity and energy markets of the DC Circuit Court vacating FERC Order 745, as well as FERC in PJM working to curve speculation, potential changes to the shape of the demand curve and potential changes due to cold weather reforms. This was the first option that we did in some of our nuclear units at the rate CRs. And as a result, Quad Cities units one and two fired in units, one and two and Oyster Creek did not clear. As Chris mentioned, the failure of these units to clear will be a key factor in our decision and whether or not to shut down the plants. Our nuclear plants rely on the capacity market for revenues, and without those revenues, their economics will be stressed even more. We have committed that no decision will be made on any of our Illinois units before June 2015. Moving onto our load margins. So far this year, we began to see increases in both our wholesale and retial load margins, as providers become more disciplined in their pricing assumptions. We have and will remain disciplined in our list-premiums and will not chase volumes for the sake of volume. We continue to see an improving retail market developing to longer-term contracts and competitor consolidation. As many of you may have heard, yesterday, we announced the agreement to acquire Integrys Energy Services, a leading retail power and natural gas provider serving 1.2 million customers across 23 states and the District of Columbia. The Integrys portfolio adds further scale to our retail power and natural gas business and provides generation and load-matching benefits to our portfolio. We expect the transaction to close in the fourth quarter of this year or the first quarter of 2015. Turning to slide 5, I will review our updated hedge disclosure, and some of the significant changes given the events for the second quarter. Focusing on 2014, we have a net $50 million increase to gross margin, since the end of the first quarter, driven primarily by the elimination of deal in nuclear waste in, partially offset by an extended outage at Salem. As I mentioned before, our portfolio management teams performed very well in managing our portfolio generation and load given the volatile market. This contributed to us executing on $100 million of our power new business targets and $50 million of our non-power new business targets during the second quarter. For 2015, we saw pricing increase across most regions. The increase is around $2 per megawatt hour in the Mid-Atlantic and the Midwest. This along with the DOE fees resulted in an increase in our open gross margin of $450 million. Given our hedge position and our execution of $100 million of power new business, our total change in gross margin with an increase of $300 million. For 2016, prices increased by $2 to $3 per megawatt hour. This resulted in an increase of $600 million in our open gross margin, with a hedge position of between 40% to 50% for the quarter, and an execution of $100 million in power new business, our total change in gross margin with an increase of $450 million. Overall, the first half of 2014 has resulted in higher prices from where we began the year. While mild weather increased gas production and falling natural gas bases prices have challenged power prices during July. Although volatility in the market is likely to persist, we are also confident that gas and power markets are fundamentally stronger and were just a year ago at this time. Now, I will turn it over to Jack to review the full financial information for the quarter.
Jonathan W. Thayer:
Thank you, Joe and good morning everyone. I will cover Exelon’s financial results for the quarter. Our third quarter guidance range and update our cash outlook for 2014 including a discussion at the financing for the Pepco Holdings acquisition. I will start on slide six. As Chris mentioned earlier, Exelon delivered second quarter earnings of $0.51 per share, exceeding our guidance range of $0.40 to $0.50 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.53 per share in the second quarter of 2013. The key drivers of the reduction in earnings quarter-over-quarter were lower realized energy prices at Exelon Generation, offset by increased distribution revenue at the utilities. The cost of the extended outage at Salem, during the second quarter is offset by the elimination of DOE Nuclear Waste fee. I will go into greater detail on the quarter drivers at each of the utilities in a few moments. For the third quarter we are providing guidance of $0.60 to $0.70 per share. In April, Exelon received the operating licenses for the CEMG nuclear fleet and began operating those plants. Prior to closing, Exelon and Generation each accounted for its investment in CEMG under the equity method of accounting. After the close, we moved to a consolidated method of accounting and recorded all assets, liabilities, and EDF’s non-controlling interest in CEMG at fair value on Exelon and Generations balance sheet as of April 1. Ongoing operations will be included in the consolidated Exelon and Generation financial statements. However, these accounting changes do not materially change the earnings and cash flow for Generation and Exelon. For the full-year, we are reaffirming our guidance range of $2.25 to $2.55 per share. This guidance includes the impact of the elimination of DOE Nuclear Waste fee and is partially offset by increased outages primarily in the nuclear fleet at Calvert Cliffs and Salem. These outages and their impacts are expected to be a $0.12 per share drag for the year. As we stated before the full-year benefit of the fee expiration is around $150 million per year or approximately $0.11 per share. We do not expect Congress to act to re-instate this fee in the immediate future and therefore have removed it from all years of our gross margin disclosures. Turning to the utilities on slide seven, they delivered combined earnings of $0.25 for the quarter. Before explaining the drivers of each utility, let me provide a brief update on our latest load forecast. In general, we are seeing load growth year-over-year at ComEd and PECO. While BGE growth is flat for 2013. ComEd is seeing positive load growth of 0.8% across all three customer classes, led by 1.2% in the residential sector. PECO's overall load growth of 0.7% is led by 1.2% growth in the large commercial and industrial sector and offset by a decline in load in the small commercial and industrial sector. You can find our latest full-year load estimates in the appendix on slide 18. For the second quarter ComEd earned $0.13 per share compared to a $0.11 per share in the same quarter last year. The increase is primarily related to higher distribution revenues due to rate base growth from higher capital investment. PECO’s earnings were $0.10 per share for the quarter; this is up $0.01 per share from the second quarter of 2013, due to decrease income tax expense primarily due to additional tax repair benefits from February and July’s storms and redemption of preferred securities which resulted in a reduction of preferred dividends. As Chris mentioned earlier, PECO had two significant storm events in early July. Combined, these storms had a total incremental O&M cost of $10 million to $20 million and incremental capital cost of $10 million to $20 million. Despite these storms, and the ice storm in February, we are comfortable that PECO can still meet its full-year guidance range. BGE delivered earnings of $0.02 per share in the first quarter, a decrease of $0.01 from the same period in 2013, due to the increased O&M cost primarily due to bad debt expense, and labor, contracting, and materials partially offset by the increased distribution revenue. Earlier this month, BGE filed a rate case with Maryland PSC asking for increases of $117.6 million for electric and $67.5 million for gas. We expect the final order in late January 2015 with new rates going into effect shortly thereafter. As you know ComEd filed its annual formula rate case in April and we expect a decision from the ICC by December 12. And the new rates will go into effect in January of 2015. More information about the filings can found in the appendix, on slides 19 and 20 for ComEd and BGE respectively. Slide 8 provides an update of our cash flow expectations for this year, we project cash from operations of $6.975 billion, this compares to $6.2 billion last quarter. The variance is primarily driven by proceeds from divestitures and a decrease in OPEC contributions. As you know, we had a busy quarter, working on financings for the Pepco Holdings acquisitions. on May 30 2014, we announced that we had entered into a $7.221 billion bridge loan facility to support the transaction and provide flexibility for timing of permanent financing. We executed the first portion of the permanent financing with a successful equity issuance via forward sale, which priced on June 2011. we issued $1.2 billion in mandatory convertible units, and $2 billion in equity forward contracts, each of these transactions including green shoes, the proceeds of which may be utilized for accretive growth opportunities. As a result of the equity issuances, we reduced the bridge loan facility to $4.2 billion. We are well down the road with our asset sale program. in May we sold our Safe Harbor hydro facility to Brookfield capital for $613 million, or $375 million after-tax with an expected close in the third quarter. We’re also proceeding with efforts to divest Fore River, Quail Run, Hillabee and Keystone Conemaugh. We anticipated raising greater than $1 billion in after-tax proceeds from the divestitures, with the excess proceeds funding future invested growth. As a reminder, I’d like to point out a few changes made to the presentation of the projected sources and uses of cash from the first quarter due to the consolidation of CENG of Exelon. For the fourth quarter of 2013, we showed 100% of CENG cash flows, net of distributions reflected in the cash from operations line and the CENG distribution to EDF in the other line. Starting the first quarter, we have kept the CENG distribution to EDF in the other line. However we now include 50% of CENG’s CapEx in investing, while leaving all other CENG cash flows, net of distributions and cash from operations. As a reminder, the appendix includes several schedules that will help you in your modeling efforts. Now before I open the call for questions and answer, Q&A, I want to acknowledge that this is Ravi Ganti’s last call as VP of IR. Ravi is moving back East to become the Senior Vice President and Chief Commercial Risk Officer. I thank you for representing Exelon for the past two years. I also want to welcome Francis Idehen as the new VP of IR. Many of you on the phone have met Francis, and we at Exelon are excited to have him in this new role. That concludes my remarks. Operator, we’d like to turn it over to Q&A.
Operator:
(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Dan Eggers with Credit Suisse.
Christopher M. Crane:
Hey, Dan.
Dan Eggers – Credit Suisse:
Can we talk a little bit more about kind of what’s going in the retail markets, (a) as far as what kind of margins and profitability you guys saw in the quarter. And then with the Integrys acquisition, how you think about the scale of selling power through retail channels relative to other ways of hedging your exposure?
Christopher M. Crane:
Yes. Joe will take that.
Joseph Nigro:
Good morning, Dan. The retail market remains very competitive. As you know, there’s a number of participants in all the areas that we’re in. I would say however since January, we have seen improvement in all of the retail markets. And it’s really happened on two fronts from our perspective. The first is just the premium – the rich premiums charge to serve load. And I’m talking both in the retail markets as well as on the polar side, have gone up with the increased volatility we’ve seen in the market. And then in addition to that, we have seen our margins on the C&I origination on the power side expand as well. And I think both of those things are positive. We have been saying for some time that we expected to see this happen, because we couldn’t get our hands around where the market was trading at effectively. I think from the Integrys perspective, it’s a really good [depth] [ph] for our portfolio from the standpoint of – the core products are power and gas, which dovetail nicely into our existing retail business. The 22 states that they’re in, also fit nicely with the geographies that we are in, and it is just a natural opportunity for us to grow the business that you see some of the competitors scale back.
Christopher M. Crane:
The only thing I’d add to that, the nature of the business is still very competitive, as Joe said, there’s dozens and dozens of participants that are still in markets like northern Illinois. We expect upon closures that our combined footprint would be about 29%. I think it’s been over reported in a few outlets. And so 28% to 29%, but there again, as the contracts come up, it will be – that will be processed in a very competitive way. So we feel strong about the acquisition and we still think it supports a very competitive market.
Dan Eggers – Credit Suisse:
You guys have historically talked about kind of $2 to $4 margins for the retail business, where are you seeing new business fall within that continuum?
Joseph Nigro:
Dan, we’re seeing – we’ve mentioned previously in the last six months that at one point, we were slightly below that $2 to $4 threshold for C&I originations. We’re now back over that $2 threshold that [core load] [ph] mid $2 and we’ve seen improvement. and as I mentioned in addition to that, on top of that, we’ve seen the actual risk premiums increase. So the increases did really on two fronts, but our margins alone are above that $2 threshold.
Dan Eggers – Credit Suisse:
And I guess one other question kind of after the Pepco deal there was talked about, looking to buy more generation assets prospectively as well and maybe the asset sales freeing up even more balance sheet room. Can you just walk through the criteria, you guys expect as you look at buying assets in this market, and then with the volatility and power markets, we’ve seen in the last few months. How is that maybe affecting decisions or where you might want geographic exposure?
Christopher M. Crane:
We continue to look at growing both sides of the business either through on the generation side, either through acquisitions or potential development projects. but they have to pass the test of accretion and over the period and a value proposition, a positive NPV, a contribution to earnings and free cash flow or EPS. We participate as assets come more recently. Assets have been going at higher valuations than we would put them in the portfolio for, but it will continue to watch as things come to market and run them through our models. They need to be generally in the markets that we’re serving and trying to grow into some of the asset optimization there we’re going through now. It is fairly back on a few of the assets that don’t have the good well run assets, good employee base highly reliable, but they don’t have the value creation in our portfolio, so continuing to optimize the assets as we go forward. As we’ve said previously, really interested in the Texas market, we see the economy there strengthening, we see the demand although not as fast as previously reported presenting opportunities for further growth in the wholesale, and retail opportunities, which would – with our business model, we’ve tried to match as much as we can the generation to the load and the portfolio.
Dan Eggers – Credit Suisse:
Okay. Thank you, guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research.
Steve Fleishman – Wolfe Research:
Yes. Hi, good morning.
Christopher M. Crane:
Hi, Steve.
Steve Fleishman – Wolfe Research:
Hi. just first on the guidance for this year, have you incorporated any of this bad July weather, or August forecast in the range or not?
Christopher M. Crane:
Yes.
Steve Fleishman – Wolfe Research:
Okay, good. Is that that’s in your Q3 forecast as well?
Christopher M. Crane:
Yes. But one of us said, yes. (Indiscernible)
Steve Fleishman – Wolfe Research:
Okay. Good, and then just going back to the TEG transaction, retail. can you give us maybe any sense of the metric of what kind of valuation you might have paid for that business?
Joseph Nigro:
Well, as we mentioned in the press release, Steve, we paid $60 million for Integrys, and assumed the working capital of approximately $180 million or so. I would say on an EBITDA multiple basis it’s close to or less than 2 times on an EBITDA multiple basis.
Steve Fleishman – Wolfe Research:
Okay. And then this might be a bit of a farfetched question. But just curious, because you’ve been growing your renewable business at a decent amount and contracted generation. What’s your kind of take on this yield curve trend and is this something you’d want to kind of sell your assets to, given that you are probably selling for a lot now or you want to keep trying to grow the business, just how are you thinking it about it?
Christopher M. Crane:
We like the business on the projects that you can get for the right value. It is on the renewables a free cash flow play and with the current tax rules that are there it’s a tax play. We have leaned more towards project financing. And we think that fits our needs better than a yieldco and in the long-term with what we see for the tax environment for these assets going forward. So we’re not heading towards yieldco or pushing assets into the yieldcos, we’re more continuing development in project financing assets.
Steve Fleishman – Wolfe Research:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Greg Gordon with ISI Group.
Greg Gordon – ISI Group:
Thanks. A couple of questions, first, I know you had a good update on cash flow in part from tax. Though, were those tax inflows contemplated as possible to the beginning of the year and you just excluded them from your guidance, because of you are uncertain on timing, or were they something new that developed over the quarter, and then should we assume a normal effective tax rate in the subsequent quarters in the next couple of years?
Christopher M. Crane:
Greg, I’d say some elements were, I would say on the opportunity side. So we had some visibility. We had about $100 million improvements based on tax reimbursement for decommissioning trust funds. The Safe Harbor sale allowed us to accelerate some tax credits, so that pulled forward about $175 million. So we have had some elements that we had some visibility might come to fruition and with some successful settlements with the IRS, as well as very successful sale of Safe Harbor have created incremental opportunity there. On the effective tax rate side, we would anticipate about 31% to 32% consolidated effective tax rate on operating earnings for the year. And on the GAAP side mark-to-market earnings kind of caused that to have some variability around it. About the modeling purposes, I think you can safely assume the 31% to 32%.
Greg Gordon – International Strategy & Investment Group LLC:
And in subsequent years, is that a reasonable bogey, or is it – should we assume something higher in lieu of any one-time tax monetization?
Christopher M. Crane:
I think that’s a fairly reasonable level.
Greg Gordon – ISI Group:
Okay. So consistent at that level.
Christopher M. Crane:
Yes.
Greg Gordon – ISI Group:
Okay. And then can we talk a little bit about gas and gas basis, working here with John we watched not just strip, but the monthly is in you have still got a pretty positive winter basis and a pretty negative summer basis that take along the three. But then at the Chicago City Gate basis hasn’t been nearly as volatile. What’s your – what is going on in the real-time market and what is your point of view on how – Exelon’s point of view on how we ought to think about gas basis?
Joseph Nigro:
Yes. Good morning, Greg. It’s Joe. I think from the gas basis perspective, your point is right on. We’ve seen the Nov-March strip for next year, the M3 basis dropped since the end of June about $0.50, and inversely as we tied in early May, it’s dropped almost $1. and to your point, really the summer periods since the end of June for that M3 basis hasn’t fallen at all, we’ve dropped some, since the high at the end of May; Chicago has been much more stable. From our perspective, there’s a couple of things obviously, the strong Q1 spot prices had a big impact on driving the forward prices higher, both in the winter and summer period. Most we’re seeing an impact that drag through to the forward curve on what’s going on in the spot market. I mentioned in my prepared remarks how we’re 35% down on cooling degree days in Chicago and 10% national. That’s having an impact in the gas market, both the NI Hub and drag through the basis. I think specifically, the M3 basis, where it’s going to continue to see some of this volatility in the next two years or so. As we continue to produce more gaps with the Marcellus shale, we’re producing about 15 Bcf a day. In Marcellus, we just don’t have the takeaway capacity and move that gas efficiently. As we get out towards 2017, we really expect that gas demand and supply demand balance that Marcellus could come into much better equilibrium, when you think about some of the pipeline reversals in TransCo and Texas Eastern and Rockies Express, which will provide an uptick and more stability to that gas basis.
Greg Gordon – ISI Group:
So, when will you guys roll out how you’ve positioned yourselves for 2017 vis-à-vis hedging, and would we expect that perspective to be reflected in your positioning when you do so?
Christopher M. Crane:
Yes. I think the way I would answer that is, first is, we’ll roll out 17 like we do every year with EER. And we do have a ratable program for 2017 began this year. We are impacted by gas basis just like everyone else by our open position. But I would also say as we convert to power sales obviously, we don’t have as big an impact on the gas basis doesn’t have as big an impact on us, once we sell the power, because we have so much long base load nuclear generation that it’s not impacted once the power sold.
Joseph Nigro:
But 17 will come out in EER.
Greg Gordon – ISI Group:
Thank you, gentlemen.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jonathan Arnold with Deutsche Bank.
Jonathan Arnold – Deutsche Bank:
Good morning, guys.
Christopher M. Crane:
Good morning.
Jonathan Arnold – Deutsche Bank:
Could I just ask you to give us an update on how you see the whole kind of discussion in Illinois around these market base solutions playing out? I guess you said you weren’t taking any action on plans till middle of 2015. The legislature is going to come in for a veto session in November, and then be back in the early part of next year. What’s going on currently, if anything, and how is this actually going to move forward?
Christopher M. Crane:
I’ll get Joe Dominguez just to cover his action.
Joseph Dominguez:
Sure. What’s going on currently is that the Illinois stakeholders are taking a look at the 11B proposed rule, which obviously, provide the strong signal to the states to preserve nuclear as part of their compliance plan. The other thing that is happening is part of the resolution that Chris mentioned at the asset, state agencies are drafting a number of reports that will look at the economic value of the units to the local communities, jobs, the value of the energy produced, the value of the low resources. And so we expect those reports to be completed sometimes around November or December positioning us for a discussion of solutions in the spring session. So I think the first time we'll see the actual legislation and different proposals will be in the spring. As Chris mentioned, we're looking for a market solution to the extent that low carbon resources, enhanced reliability, or attributes. We'll expect the compensative for those attributes and we’ll expect that competition really at all of the plants and not just the plants that are in jeopardy. So that’s our go-forward plan. I think that’s the timing.
Jonathan Arnold – Deutsche Bank:
So the next thing we’ll probably see will be this reports coming out towards the end of the year.
Jonathan W. Thayer:
That’s right.
Jonathan Arnold – Deutsche Bank:
And then, would you say that the stakeholders’ interest in that is entirely dependent on 1011D, well does that kind of run. Is there a chance we move on this regardless of what happens with EPA and carbon?
Christopher M. Crane:
The state has long positioned itself as focused on environmental issues. And they have individually, as the state take actions and advance of 1011D and looking at different programs that they maybe able to participate in, and we see this is helping them with the road map on going forward. So there is an interest within the state for that. There is also an interest within the stake holder body to secure the long-term viability of these assets, they’re greatly highly critical to the economy, local economy in which they are located in serving as tax basis, job basis, economic support for the community. So it’s a multifaceted view, but the environmental support has been a long-term focus for the state.
Jonathan Arnold – Deutsche Bank:
Okay. Thanks, Chris. Can I just ask similar idea on a different topic on the various set of avenues you are pushing forward in terms of PJM market structure reform, could you give us an update on which of those is getting the most attraction and what your expectations are around timing and process there as well?
Christopher M. Crane:
Joe you want to…
Joseph Nigro:
So there is some unfinished business around the speculation reforms that have been proposed in advance of the last auction and set up some sessions to deal with that. We think that ultimately revise some of those speculation reforms for approval and advance the next auction. The other issue that is gaining a lot of attention, it’s an examination of the winter on a reliability situations I think has revealed some gaps in the capacity product that we have purchased thus for (indiscernible) consumers. So I think PJM is going to be looking at something that procures some additional commitments around high availability resources. I think that’s going to look a lot like resources that have firm fuel, like our nuclear plants. And I think it’s going to be characteristic approach where there will be additional compensation those units or enhanced reliability. And there is also going to be some enhanced penalties. And I think as an early model one might look to in that regard is what New England has done. I think PJM is going to look very carefully at that. So there will be some more money in the session, but also some more penalties for people who don’t perform. I think generally speaking PJM wants to be added a business of managing fuel supply for gas generators that has become a big issue and will become a bigger issue as the staff changes. And the other thing we saw is obviously generator non-performance in the winter, which really threatened the reliability of systems. So I figure we will see a proposal sometime in the next month from PJM with action bringing something to firm potentially by the end of the year depending on what the analytics look like.
Jonathan Arnold – Deutsche Bank:
Would that run on typical PJM PRA schedule with an auction I guess second quarter or you see that happening on a different time frame?
Joseph Nigro:
Well. I think in the long run it’ll do just that, it’ll be part of the PRA and planning perimeters, we see going into the PRAs. But there is a question about these next few winters before we can catch up with the PRA schedule. So I think there's going to need to be something that will be supplemental for the coming winters. But, again, we need to see what PJM proposes. But I don't think it just truly to PRA plan. I think it’s going to be back in the next few winters as well.
Jonathan Arnold – Deutsche Bank:
Okay. So the next month, you think that proposal is in that…
Joseph Nigro:
Yes.
Jonathan Arnold – Deutsche Bank:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Hugh Wynne with Sanford Bernstein.
Hugh Wynne – Sanford Bernstein:
Good morning.
Christopher M. Crane:
Good morning.
Jonathan W. Thayer:
Good morning.
Hugh Wynne – Sanford Bernstein:
I wanted to follow-up on some of the discussion regarding Illinois response to 1011D. I think you had mentioned that rule provides an incentive to preserve the capacity of the nuclear fleet, and one point I also heard mention the possibility that Illinois might join RGGI. Could you comment more directly on what you've heard regarding the strategies of Illinois and Pennsylvania with a respect to their possible response to 1011D, their state implementation project?
Christopher M. Crane:
I would say just first of all it's very preliminary. So I think there’s a couple of things that folks are looking for. It’s pretty clear that if you lose nuclear plants your ability to comply with any carbon regime going forward is going to be jeopardized. So plants produced tremendous amount of zero carbon energy, and so if you lose those you are going to see a big uptick taking in carbon efficiency and we see that states – were plants have actually retired. I think that's been fully recognized. What the vehicle for compliance will be is going to be the subject of discussions. I would guess at least a year and possibly longer. So I just think it’s too early to speculate on where they are going to go. I think some stake holders and see what’s been done in the RGGI states and find that appealing. But, we are there's a lot of grain before we get the solution on that.
Jonathan W. Thayer:
I think the other thing to add is in conversation, this is a very complex rule and it takes time to digest as I think the state ones to ensure they understand the allotment are reduction goals they have given that they ensure that as they are given a fair shake in that, but it will be as Joe said it take a while.
Joseph Nigro:
If I could just add you asked about Pennsylvania as well. There I think the administration has not been predisposed to joining RGGI that the other candidate for Governor as indicated as part this platform that he would win RGGI if he is elected, so mostly what the elections results look like in November, and that will probably charge path there.
Hugh Wynne – Sanford Bernstein:
Can I just ask a question on that front? The portion of your fleet that's in New York and in Maryland, of course, is already governed by RGGI. Is it important to you, and are you making initiatives to see that the rest of your fleet is also governed by similar rules? Or do you feel that PJM can operate flexibly with different state implementation plans in different states?
Christopher M. Crane:
I think we believe later. I think RGGI is a good choice. RGGI is just one of choices, as clean energy standard can work, a dispatch model where we pricing carbon and then dispatch resource through the RTOs, it works. There are a lot of solutions out there. We have supported the RGGI platform and the model of improvements and we’ll continue to support those states that are interested in that model. But it’s not the only solution.
Hugh Wynne – Sanford Bernstein:
Great. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next comes from the line of Angie Storozynski with Macquarie Capital.
Angie Storozynski – Macquarie Capital:
Thank you. Good morning. So, I wanted to go back to the questions about Integrys. I know a lot of questions have been asked. Have you incorporated the projected uptick in volumes and margins to your retail business in your gross margin projections?
Christopher M. Crane:
No. Angie, we have not.
Angie Storozynski – Macquarie Capital:
Okay. So, the follow-up question is
Christopher M. Crane:
First of all, I think the first question is the uptick in volume would probably be approximately 15% to our retail power volumes. And our existing constellation retail power volumes, on the gap side the uptick in volume would be approximately 30% to the existing constellation volumes.
Angie Storozynski – Macquarie Capital:
Okay. And I’m just trying to figure out if this very low multiple – does this very low multiple have to do with the fact that the portfolio was short – the 2 times EV to EBITDA?
Jonathan W. Thayer:
Yes, Angie, this is Jack. Clearly, Integrys didn't own generation to support that portfolio they had acquired has been hedged via the open market. It fits nicely with our generation footprint in the state that are active. And this will be an incremental avenue for us…
Christopher M. Crane:
Yes. And I would add to that Angie, the purchase with the mark-to-market exercise, so regardless if they were long or short, it would be an exercise in just mark-to-market, whatever positions they had on. It’s hard to speculate and then provide a more information to that.
Angie Storozynski – Macquarie Capital:
Okay. That's fine. Now, should we expect that you will give us an updated projections for volumes and then margins for the retail business during the EEI?
Christopher M. Crane:
Yes. That is correct. We will update it for EEI.
Angie Storozynski – Macquarie Capital:
Okay. Then, given the correction in forward power curves since June 30, could you give us a sense roughly how big of a swing we are seeing currently in your total gross margin for 2015 and 2016 versus what you're showing from the slides?
Christopher M. Crane:
Yes. If you are look at our sensitivity tables that we provide in our hedge disclosures. We show you a $5 change in power crises for 2014, 2015, 2016 respectively for PJM west and for NI-Hub, and we were roughly down about $3 in 2015 and 2016 respectively, so just backing into the math it’s approximately $150 million in 2015 and approximately $250 in 2016 and you could see that in the sensitivity tables we provide.
Angie Storozynski – Macquarie Capital:
Okay. And then again going back to the retail business, I mean just to reconcile your views, so you are expecting, as we do, a growing volatility in power prices, and yet you are bulking up your retail business, which tends not to do well in a volatile power place environment. So are you comfortable with this strategy because you're still long power, or is it that you think that you're the last man standing in the retail business, and thus you will be paid for this additional risk that you're assuming?
Christopher M. Crane:
It’s definitely not the last man standing. It’s a (indiscernible) market with many participants in it. So I think, Joe could continue to cover this strategy, you touch that.
Joseph Nigro:
Yes. I think Angie there is a couple of things. I think the first is intrinsically we believe in the logic of matching generation and load. And there is a number of reasons to do that it’s beneficial for us, because we don’t have to take our power output, over the counter market. The optionality of our units is efficiently matched with these load contracts. The locations in which we’re selling the load contracts matches nicely to our generation output generally. I think the second; the other side of it is the volatility piece. These contracts are renewing in a relative frequent period, that touch the phase and the volatility is reflected in those contracts. So it’s not like for being exposed that. If you go back six months ago, we were saying we didn’t think the market was accurately pricing the volatility in the right way. And when I was impacting the way we were executing our own quantity to retail. We have seen that improved and we thought it would improve and we are comfortable with it because it an efficient hedge for our total portfolio. And the margins had continued to expand.
Angie Storozynski – Macquarie Capital:
Okay. My last question, not related to the generation business for once, we're still missing a filing in Maryland for your Pepco acquisition. Is there any reason why you're waiting to file in Maryland?
Christopher M. Crane:
Yes. As we previously said we have multiple filings in at Maryland. And we had to time ourselves in our own workload. So we prepare the other one, first Maryland’s on a clock its 225 days, so we’ll be filing that one very shortly. But it is just the execution of the work we already have, in front of the commission in Maryland the work that we needed to do in front of the other commissions.
Angie Storozynski – Macquarie Capital:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the call back over to Ravi Ganti.
Ravi Ganti:
Thank you, Amy. That brings us to the end of the call. Thank you for joining us. If you have any follow-up questions please contact the IR department. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. This concludes today’s conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Ravi Ganti – Vice President-Investor Relations Chris Crane – President and CEO Joe Rigby – Chairman, President and CEO of Pepco Holdings Jack Thayer – Executive Vice President and CFO Joseph Nigro – Executive Vice President and Chief Executive Officer-Constellation
Analysts:
Dan Eggers – Credit Suisse Greg Gordon – ISI Group Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Trahan Julien Smith – UBS Paul Ridzon – KeyBanc Jonathan Arnold – Deutsche Bank Ali Agha – SunTrust Robinson Humphrey
Operator:
Good morning. My name is Brandy and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Exelon Acquisition of Pepco Holdings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks there will be a question-and-answer session (Operator Instructions) Thank you. Mr. Ravi Ganti, Vice President of Investor Relations, sir you may begin your conference.
Ravi Ganti:
Thank you, operator. Good morning everyone, thank you for joining us. Earlier this morning we made two announcements. Exelon plans to acquire Pepco Holdings in an all cash transaction and our first quarter 2014 earnings results. Materials and presentations related to the earning and acquisition are available on the investor relations section of our website. Our discussion in today’s call contains forward looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. You should refer to the first two slides of today’s presentation as well as information in Exelon’s SEC filings for a discussion of factors that may cause the results to differ from management’s projections, forecasts and expectations. Leading the call today are Chris Crane, Exelon’s President and CEO; Joe Rigby, Chairman, President and CEO of Pepco Holdings and Jack Thayer, Executive Vice President and CFO, Exelon. We have scheduled 60 minutes for today’s call. After the prepared remarks, we will open the call for Q&A session. With that, I turn the call over to Chris, CEO, Exelon.
Chris Crane:
Thanks everybody for joining us this morning. Before we get to the topic that will focus on today’s call, our acquisition of Pepco Holdings, I want to spend a minute on our earnings for the quarter. We delivered on our financial expectations with earnings of $0.62 a share which was within the range of our – for our quarter. Our earnings for the quarter would have been $0.12 higher without the large outage in January – the outage at [indiscernible] nuclear facility and the impact of the severe ice storm in the PECO service territory. We are providing guidance of $0.40 to $0.50 per share for the second quarter operating earnings. We are on track to deliver on our financial goals for the full-year. We provided prepared remarks on the market portfolio strategy and advantage results along with our earnings release this morning, you can contact IR for any follow-up questions. We do have Ken Cornew and Joe Nigro in the room if there is specific that you want to touch on. Now move on to the topic that is the focus today. We’re extremely pleased to announce that we’ve reached an agreement to acquire Pepco Holdings. We’re doing is call from Washington DC and I'm very pleased to be here today with Pepco’s CEO Joe Rigby joining the call to share his views on the transaction, what it means or Pepco, the 2 million customers in the DC, Delaware, Maryland and New Jersey area. We think this deal is the right deal at the right time for Exelon. This is a strategic acquisition that results in a leading Mid-Atlantic electric and gas utility platform with the contiguous footprint that will serve almost 10 million customers in six states. This acquisition will add further sources of stable regulated cash to our portfolio and leverages our position as a leader in operating large urban utilities. Exelon will pay a cash consideration of $27.25. That translates to a 27.7 upfront premium based on last Friday's closing. We have committed financing via our bridge line in place to fund the acquisition and our strong balance sheet will enable us to source permanent financing for the purchase price using balanced mix of debt and equity along with cash on our balance sheet. Jack will talk through more of the financial details later but let me give you a few initial thoughts. This transaction is highly accretive beginning in our first year of full operations as a combined company. It’s accretive to the tune of $0.15 to $0.20 per share on a steady-state basis. It maintains Exelon balance sheet flexibility to continue to pursue further growth investment across all of our businesses. And it preserves the upside in Exelon value that we still see fundamentally expected to gain from the continued recovery in the power markets which have been strong since the first of the year. For Pepco Holdings customers, this transaction results in direct consumer benefits and enables further sharing of operational best practices across a larger suite of utilities. Let me turn your attention now to Slide 5 to talk more about the strategic benefits of this combination. The geographic fit of Pepco utilities within the Exelon utilities is a second to none. There's a natural overlap of our operations in the Mid-Atlantic. It will enable us to realize cost savings and improved reliability for all of our customers. And when it comes down to storm restoration, as we've had recent examples on how PECO, BGE and ComEd worked together to ensure that we got the lights back for our customers in the face of some of the worst storms we’ve ever seen in the last few years. This sizable utility platform also provides an opportunity for us to streamline processes, drive savings and improve efficiency in our day-to-day operations. We can drive performance through matrix based operating model. The acquisition also supports our belief in the value of an integrated utility model with a balanced mix of regulated and non-regulated cash flows and continues the upside for the shareholders, allows us to continue to have the upside for the shareholders from a power price recovery. We started to see recovery in the power markets as I mentioned come to fruition and the utilization of our balance sheet to particularly fund this acquisition maintains a leverage to a significant upside of the power prices. On Slide 6, we show the map of what our service territory will look like post merger. We’ve worked in close proximity to Pepco, Atlantic City Electric, and Delmarva Power for many years and we’re pleased with the prospects of making them part of the Exelon utilities. Slide 7 provides some facts related to the transaction. As I mentioned before, we're paying 27.25 per share for Pepco Holdings in an all cash transaction. There are no significant changes to our operation or governance from the company and I look forward to working very closely with Joe and Pepco management team as we work with the regulatory approval process and the integration plan. Our plan is to obtain all required shareholder and regulatory approvals to close the transaction in the second through third quarter of 2015. Slide 8 provides some additional context around the timeline for the regulatory process. A joint team for regulatory folks from both Exelon and Pepco are prepared to continue working together and in conjunction with stakeholders in various jurisdictions to secure all the necessary approvals. We expect all the regulatory filings to be made in approximately the next 45 days. Only Maryland has the stated clock on the regulatory process, we believe our experience learned from the Exelon Constellation merger will position us to secure the needed approvals by – as I said the second to third quarter of next year. I would like to now invite Joe Rigby to give his thoughts about the transaction, how it brings value to PHI shareholders and customers.
Joe Rigby:
Thanks, Chris and I want to thank you and your great team for helping make this transaction happen. This is a great day for the Pepco Holdings family, our shareholders, employees, customers and our communities. We’re excited to join the Exelon team and to become part of a larger well-capitalized company that has better scale to invest in infrastructure, people and the local community. Our shareholders will receive an attractive premium of 24.7% for the purchase of their shares by Exelon. Chris Crane and Exelon are committed to building upon our significant improvements in system reliability, customer service and outage restoration. Exelon has experience in large urban cities like ours and is a value corporate citizen. We share a culture of continuous improvement, accountability, safety and commitment to our community. Our customers will directly benefit as a result of this transaction, including $100 million of customer benefits across Pepco Holdings service territories, the rate credit, low-income assistance and energy efficiency programs, a commitment to further improve system reliability and enhance storm restoration capability. This is a tremendous opportunity and Exelon is the right partner for taking Pepco Holdings to the next level. I’d now like to turn the call over to Jack Thayer, CFO of Exelon to discuss the financial of the transaction.
Jack Thayer:
Thank you, Joe and good morning everyone. This is an exciting day for Exelon and our shareholders. The financial overview of the transaction begins on Slide 11. The acquisition of Pepco Holdings adds significant value for our shareholders. As Chris mentioned, it’s significantly earnings accretive in the first full-year after closing. The deal will increase earnings by $0.15 to $0.20 per share in 2017. The rapid growth of rate based, retained synergies and earnings of Pepco’s three utilities, combined with our financing plans for the transaction drive sustainable earnings accretion. As you know, Exelon has committed $15 billion in capital to ComEd, PECO and BGE to grow their rate bases over the next five years. The addition of the Pepco utilities to the Exelon family will add an incremental $8.3 million in regulated rate base. This in turn will increase our regulated earnings, add stable cash flows and add to our financial strength. Additionally the utility earnings from the pro forma company can fully support the Exelon dividend by 2015. The integration of the two companies will result in more than $250 million of net synergies over the first five years of which we can expect roughly one-third will be retained. Our past experience gives us confidence that we can deliver on these synergy targets. The Constellation integration resulted in significant savings and we believe we can achieve meaningful savings for customers and shareholders in this case as well. This deal brings substantial benefits to our shareholders and the contemplated financing approach preserves the upside to be gained from power market recovery. On Slide 13, you can see the earnings accretion, the rate base growth and continued strong credit metrics as well as a more balanced business mix on a pro forma basis with operating earnings, pro forma for the transaction. On slide 13 provides an overview of our financing plans. Our strong balance sheets coupled with the regulated nature of the transaction and the visibility into recurring utility cash flows affords us the opportunities to manage roughly 50% of the acquisition price with debt at Exelon corporate, taking advantage of an historically low interest rate environment. The remaining portion of the transaction will be funded with a mix of common stock, mandatory convertible securities and up to $1 billion of cash from the sale of non-core assets at Exelon generation. Our investment grade credit ratings at all Exelon and Pepco registrants are expected to be maintained. We have a bridge financing in place for the full amount of the acquisition which provides significant flexibility for the timing of permanent financing. That is particularly important given the long lead nature of the regulatory approval process. Going forward the combined company will continue to have a strong liquidity profile supported by $9.5 billion in revolving credit facilities. Importantly, this transaction delivers growth for the company and our financing strategy maintains balance sheet capacity for continued growth investment on both regulated and merchant side of our business. Now I will turn the call over to Chris for concluding remarks before Q&A.
Chris Crane:
Thanks, Joe and Jack. We talked with all of you over the last few years and we’ve been relentless in our commitment to deliver value to our shareholders in all aspects of the business. We've taken actions to create flexibility to invest in growth while maintaining a strong investment grade balance sheet. You all know our fundamental view in the upside of power prices which we're starting to enjoy seeing come to fruition, that has not changed. We position ourselves to further benefit from the market recovery. We also believe in the need for strong infrastructure investment in our utility platforms. As Jack mentioned we are investing 15 billion in rate base over the next five years at ComEd, PECO and BGE. We now have a unique strategic opportunity to add Pepco Holdings to our company and continue to grow and diversify our regulated footprint. This truly is an exciting time for Exelon and we’re pleased to have had the time – to discuss this with you this morning and again I want to thank Joe Rigby personally and his team for allowing this transaction to go forward, with the culture of the companies are very similar and we look forward to learning from the Pepco organization and sharing some of the things we've learned over the past few years as we’ve improved the performance of our operation as they have also. With that, I will open it up for questions.
Operator:
(Operator Instructions) And your first question is from Dan Eggers [Credit Suisse].
Dan Eggers - Credit Suisse :
Hey, good morning, guys. Chris, you've been talking for a while about ways or opportunities to deploy capital and all the alternatives that were out there with the goal of visible earnings and consistency and repeatability. Can you just walk through how you came to a regulated utility acquisition like this versus maybe renewable investments, and some of the things you have talked about and maybe how the returns compared to this versus what else you would have seen in the market?
Chris Crane:
Sure, we’re in the market on all sides, the renewable opportunities that are coming to the market, the conventional generation opportunities, we continue to hunt for value in that area. And we've seen some of the conventional stuff go at higher premium that we’re not willing to commit to but we will stay in that market. As Jack said, we have considerable flexibility that’s been created on the balance sheet by this acquisition and it will not deter us from looking at opportunities when there is a willing partner on the other side to sell their assets. It is in a large part opportunistic, we were able to find a partner that saw the strategic sense in creating scale and so it’s more about timing and opportunity but we are still looking on a regular basis at anything that comes to the market or in conversations with folks that we think should come to the market. But we will continue to work on that, this will not deter or distract us from any of the power side, we will have an integration organization that will be led under Bill Von Hoene but it will lean heavily on the Exelon utilities to come up with the integration plan. In the meantime under Ken Cornew and Joe Nigro’s leadership we will continue with the Genco strategy independently as we operate these businesses independently and we think there will be future opportunities that will come our way and we will be able to integrate them into our platform equally as efficiently as we will do this transaction.
Dan Eggers - Credit Suisse :
I guess maybe Jack, you can walk through how the balance sheet works that you were able to add that level of debt and still keep a lot of flexibility apparently for other investments and what kind of assurance you have gotten from the agency so far?
Jack Thayer:
Sure, Dan, as you are aware, historically the rating agencies have looked at Exelon corporate and Exelon generation on that combined basis and our target FFO to debt metrics, if I was to pick one agency S&P as an example have largely viewed the corporate entity and the merchant part of our business as one and the same. With the acquisition of Pepco Holdings and the rebalancing of the earnings mix and re-rating of the risk perception related to Exelon corporate, what it affords is the opportunity to add significant incremental leverage at the holding company that absent this transaction we would not have otherwise been able to do. So as we think about adding $3.5 billion of corporate debt at the holding company in an historic interest rate environment where we can login long-term rates at very effective levels we see that marry up with the opportunity to invest in growing rate base at Pepco Holdings and the opportunity to marry that up with a strong operating overlap, we see this as a uniquely opportune time about – tap the debt markets but also add highly accretive investments to our overall mix.
Chris Crane:
Let me add one thing to that, Dan, just to go back to some of the things we talked about, when we started to communicate last fall, our investment in the utility business, the 15 billion part of the strategy here is to have the utilities be able to cover our commitment to the shareholders on the dividend and within the next couple of years. So we've right-sized the dividend appropriately for the business, the utilities will be able to service the debt and dividend as needed at the holding company. And we can have more flexibility on free cash flow off of the generation business to continue to grow that side of the business. So from a strategic approach, this advances where we were hearing and strengthens our view on the strategy and structure of the entity while being able to use that quantity based cyclical – somewhat more cyclical to capture the upside, where we see fit.
Dan Eggers - Credit Suisse :
I guess just to go back to my first question and then I will stop it. When you look at the value return of this to shareholders relative to the other options that have been out in the market, can you just maybe give a context or how the comparability of accretion or net value return worked for this deal relative to the other places where you could have deployed capital that you have seen or that you see in the market today?
Chris Crane:
I will take a couple of the typical CCGTs that you were to have $752 million to $1 billion that have gone across the market, you can see accretion of a couple pennies at best on those type of assets. For something like this we’re using some equity and using more debt, you can see the accretion of $0.15 to $0.20, it is powerful. And so I think you could probably get fairly strong accretion if we were dealing with a fleet of assets to come in. On the renewable side, the investment thesis is not as much about EPS as it is about free cash flow, that helps enable us to do other things. So Jack, if you want to provide any clarification any more, go ahead.
Jack Thayer:
Sure, Dan, I think as Chris mentioned, here we have a growing or an opportunity in invest in growing rate base and the opportunity for sustained investments and continued investment to further rate base opportunities versus, as Chris mentioned, once you get through the tax attributes of renewable investment, really does a very modest in some cases negative EPS contribution further out the curve and there it’s about velocity of return of capital and seeking out further opportunities to invest relative to, here we have a sustained opportunity to invest in infrastructure in a way that earns us a very attractive returns, that on a standalone basis that the incremental leverage at the holding company makes that much more beneficial when it comes to dropping EPS down the bottom line for our shareholders.
Chris Crane:
But just to be clear, this does not preclude us from other growth opportunities on the other side of the business, it's a good opportunity at the time that we’re able take advantage of and it further moves our strategic focus down the road that as we discussed previously.
Operator:
Your next question is coming from Greg Gordon [ISI Group].
Greg Gordon - ISI Group:
I've got one question on the merger and one question on the quarter. So on the transaction, obviously Mr. Rigby and his team despite doing a pretty good job running their business had a hard time getting the type of rate relief they have needed to move their earned returns on equity up towards their authorized returns. When you think about the base case forecast that you are using to give us the accretion numbers, what do you assume your ROE trends are? And how much different are they under the Exelon merger case than they are under the standalone Potomac case?
Jack Thayer:
In terms of what we assumed in our operating model when calculating the synergy it’s very much into Pepco Holdings projections that they used and recently rolled out in their communications at their analyst day, that’s very consistent with the Ivys [ph] projection for the company on a going forward basis. So to the extent that we are able to through synergies to speed, the opportunity to earn allowed ROEs that we’re able to through – continued performance improvements and improved storm response and other elements to earn higher allowed ROEs from our jurisdictions in New Jersey, Delaware, Washington DC and Maryland that would all be upside to the transaction. Obviously that’s something that that's we will be targeting as we’re integrating the companies and integrating Pepco’s utilities into our operating model. But right now in our transaction economics we just assume that Pepco continues on the path that it was –
Joe Rigby:
No, I think as we went through the due diligence process as Jack mentioned, that obviously we provided all the information and I think what I am hearing Jack said is that there was no kind of remarkable upside that was assumed and the opportunity I think to realize the synergies and to be able to work that into the forecast I think it’s going to have a positive impact on the actual earned ROEs.
Greg Gordon - ISI Group:
Segueing to the quarter. Looking at Slide 9, which is the 2013 versus 2014 comparison of ExGen -- the negative deltas into $0.09 from lower realized energy prices, higher procurement costs, $0.05 from nuclear and fossil output. So can you explain to us how we should think about this because clearly the retail business probably was on the wrong side of power price volatility in the quarter in terms of having a lot of demand and having to manage variable load risk? And at the same time your lowest cost resources were not available, so you can you kind of breakdown what happened that was sort of uniquely in the retail book in that $0.09? I think it's probably simpler when we think about the $0.05 just in terms of outage days but can you explain to us exactly what happened?
Joe Rigby:
Greg, there is a number of things that are moving around when you think about – I assume your question is Q1 ’13 versus Q1 ’14, when you think about it, the thing is we had – when you hedge our portfolio, we had substantially lower energy benefitting PJM in the Midwest, in the Mid-Atlantic quarter over quarter when you think about ’14 versus ’13. The big driver in the Midwest was the roll off of the Comed swap, in ’14, still in the first quarter in ’13. In the Mid-Atlantic, it was just driven by energy prices. [Indiscernible] that was a positive hiccup but we review that all from lower energy. In addition to that, as you see on the Slide, we had some decrease in nuclear output and fossil output in ’14 and – we had a roll-off with long term contract in the Midwest, that’s why you add in to that as well and then when you get into the other regions, there is lot of moving pieces associated with it, in New England with the restructuring of our fuel contractor Mystic, we had a lot less generation output in New England than we did in 2013 and then in Ercot [ph], just like everyone else we faced some outages in the first quarter and that was from some gas unavailability down there. So there is a number of moving pieces. On the retail side, it wasn’t in the period --
Greg Gordon - ISI Group:
So when I think about the $0.09 there isn't some -- there is not a meaningful portion of that let's say where you were upside down in your retail book, it's other factors like the roll off in contract?
Joe Rigby:
No, our retail book, we managed it as we have talked to you about previously. We manage all of risk inherent in our portfolio in our wholesale book of business. So when you think about it, what we are doing is reflecting all of that in our disclosure and you see that. I would tell you, we face the same load charges, PJM for example, that everyone else did in the first quarter. But we also had an offsetting benefit of having generation and having the generation to load strategy it benefits us some although we did incur net cost to serve loads but that includes our wholesale load as well.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Steve Fleishman [Wolfe Trahan]
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Trahan:
Could you maybe just be a lot more explicit on the financing plan for the different pieces and how much stock versus converts versus debt? And also the asset sales how you might most likely look at?
Jack Thayer:
Sure, Steve, it’s Jack. So with respect to the financing side of the equation as we have discussed we will use a mix of convertibles as well as straight comment, we are still finalizing and we will finalize the mix of that as we go to market. And we will size that so that we’re tapping the substantial liquidity that exists in both those instruments and leverage the opportunity to tap different investor bases as we do so. Clearly the benefit of a mandatory convert is the equity credit we received while retaining opportunity for to share and the upside related to share performance during the duration of the convert. On the asset sale side as we mentioned we anticipate roughly $1 billion of proceeds from asset divestitures that we would use to fund this transaction, we would anticipate that those assets are in our non-core elements of our business. So when we think about maintaining the exposure to a power recovery where that exists most significantly is within our nuclear fleet, we would be looking to sell certain awful [ph] assets that have appreciated considerably in value and given the valuation methodologies in terms of how we are valued relative to IPPs or private equity firms, those assets can or likely to be more valuable in a private equity firm or IPP sense, you can use significantly more leverage than we can in our capital structure. And the loss of earnings associated with those assumed divestitures is incorporated into the $0.15 to $0.20 of earnings accretion calculation. So clearly we see that as an opportunity to sell assets that on a relative basis contribute less earnings to our overall EPS and invest those proceeds in a growing utility investment.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Trahan:
And just a clarification on the asset sales. Are those assets that likely had debt on them as well so that we should use the $1 billion as a mix of debt and equity, or is the $1 billion replacing what otherwise would be equity issuance for the deal?
Jack Thayer:
The debt that we have is at Exelon generation, so there's not plant level specific debt, we would anticipate that, $1 billion of proceeds is in lieu of equity used in the transaction.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Trahan:
Last question on this, will you probably wait until you have close to all approvals to execute on these funding plans?
Jack Thayer:
The bridge is in place for the duration of the approval process. We have the opportunity to issue at any times or during that bridge being in place and I think we will – as we get further into integration process, into the regulatory approval process, we will stare down and look at when is the appropriate time to look to issue equity. Certainly we have some big valuation of that is coming, the upcoming capacity auction, a summer with a tightening supply demand mix and an upcoming winter as well, so we have a lot of flexibility around when we might think about tapping the equity market and the convert market.
Chris Crane:
Just one more thing to add on to that, Steve, the asset rationalization was going forward with – on the annual basis we look at core assets, their valuation, market valuation, look at non-core assets and we had determined that we were going to adjust the portfolio –
Operator:
Our next question comes from Julien Smith [UBS].
Julien Smith - UBS:
So, quick question if you will, going back to Dan's first starting point here. What is the ideal composition of regulated versus merchant? If you think about the company down the line are you going to follow your peers on the diversified side and become more regulated, or ultimately do you think about yourselves as having a meaningful commodity kicker to yourself?
Chris Crane:
We still are very supportive of the commodity side of the business. This is not a mandatory diversification that we had to do because of any balance sheet tightening, it is about creating value and the opportunity that we have with it. There's not a fixed 65, 55% regulated to merchant. What we learned in the last downturn of the commodity cycle that we are coming out of is that we need to make sure that our commitments are sized to be able to be sustainable in that the investment thesis and the strategy for both sides of the business can stand on their own. So what we want to have it is regulated revenue that continues to grow at a reasonable CAGR as we make our investments in that side that support any debt or dividend requirements that we have at holding company which we think is a rational strategy on how we should size and pursue and invest going forward. We do not want to over lever that the holding company that to a point the utility businesses that we’re investing in, or acquiring would not able to service debt requirement we don't want to size the dividend to a point that it can’t be reasonably serviced to provide value back to the shareholders. And we also want to have the flexibility which this transaction maintains for us to be able to invest in the merchant side, the competitive side of the business in electric and gas assets as we go forward.
Julien Smith - UBS:
Now, second question here, going back to the balance sheet. When it comes to credit metrics I would be very curious how much incremental leverage beyond the transaction does this create by shifting your regulated profile?
Jack Thayer:
Julien, as you might anticipate, we’ve been in dialogue with the agencies and in the re-risk rating of the company pro forma for this transaction and the ability for both utility as well as merchants cash flow service the debt at the holding company we left ourselves room to make further incremental investments whether they be regulated or merchants in nature. So we clearly could have learned more heavily on the fixed income markets and made this transaction even more accretive. We felt the appropriate and balanced approach was to leave ourselves powered because as we’ve experienced from time to time particularly in moments of significant volatility whether it be in the retail business or whether it be in other parts of the merchant chain, it’s generally good to have powered should opportunities present themselves.
Julien Smith - UBS:
And how does that jive with dividend expectations? Obviously it's a more regulated profile, what is the thought process?
Jack Thayer:
I think the thought process is post this transaction the utility can be a 100% funded – dividend to be a 100% funded from the utilities, the speeds – we were already on that path, this clearly speeds that and it gives our board of directors significant flexibility around how they -- with Chris’ guidance may choose to return capital to shareholders.
Julien Smith - UBS:
But you are not committing to a payout off of the utilities or anything like that?
Jack Thayer:
We are not.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Paul Ridzon [KeyBanc].
Paul Ridzon – KeyBanc:
I'm just wondering, I know Pepco and BGE tried to get married once and Exelon has got history in New Jersey. Have you had any dialogue with regulators? –
Chris Crane:
We’ve had some initial outreach with regulators to explain what the value proposition is for their stakeholders, so we learned a lot from some things that worked and some things that haven't worked in the past. We put that into our regulatory strategy in Maryland when we were able to secure the acquisition of Constellation and BGE 10 and half months and our regulatory team is ready to approach this one in the same way with, making sure we get our filings in, there's no delay on that, making sure we engage and open the dialogue up with regulators. The regulators have a tough job to do, they have to prove that this is in the best interest of the consumer and but we believe that we have prepared a package that shows that by our commitments that we’re making. And we will engage - I wouldn’t expect to hear a reaction from any regulator publicly. They have to see what we put in writing what we offer they have to go through the process. This is a tough job for them to do but we at the end of the day see a success path or we wouldn’t be doing it.
Paul Ridzon – KeyBanc:
Again, just a follow-up question shifting gears, can you give us an update on Illinois and any movement on legislation that would ascribe a little more value to the value of nuclear?
Chris Crane:
Yes, that story has gotten away from this, we continue to say we are not looking for legislation for a bailout of the competitive nuclear fleet in Illinois. We believe that is a market issue that our units are not being compensated for the firm fixed fuel that they provide in the capacity market and we're not being compensated for the clean carbon free generation that they are providing. So our focus on creating value for the nuclear fleet is more around market design and at the federal level. We pushed hard that, above and for a few years talking about the unintended consequences of the PTC and the concentration of excess wind generation and the pricing issues that it has in the Midwest primarily that is still what we’re pushing on. We have – we said a couple years ago it was going to be a problem, it has become a problem. There's a few ways that that we can get compensated for that, that as you all know we are working on. The market issues in the capacity market PJM, those changes coming to fruition, some of the short-term changes and the work that we need to do in the stakeholder community, to recognize the vulnerability that the grid has, we will be incurring with dependency on gas and we saw that during the polar vortex. So when we load at core, we load it for 18 to 24 months, it can run through any weather situation. It’s not dependent on fuel being delivered on an hourly basis or wind blowing. So that’s the stuff we’re working on. We believe in the competitive market, we don't believe in the subsidized market. We need to be compensated for the value proposition on the plan and that should not be a bailout from the state.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Jonathan Arnold [Deutsche Bank]
Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank:
Just curious as you sort of think about the company post this transaction and on the business mix issues you’ve addressed, does this give you the capacity to be a little less hedged than sort of sort of bet more heavily on your favorable view of the markets and maybe this be an opportunity just to update us on how you are seeing liquidity in those forward curves.
Chris Crane:
From a macro level in servicing our commitments on the value of the dividend and making sure that we maintain the strong balance sheet this does contribute to that focus. All that Joe talked about the liquidity and where we are out with the hedging strategy.
Jack Thayer:
Hey Jon, good morning. There is a couple of things we have said. We have seen liquidity begin to pick up in the marketplace, first to first of the year, that's too pretty much all the regions and in particular importance for us. We have seen liquidity in the NI-Hub and we believe a lot of that is in the back of what happened in January and February with some forward broadcast in some of the price appreciation and more importantly the volatility depreciation we saw and some of the retailers coming back to the market. I think from a hedging perspective, we really have already see it at the approach being less hedged. If you look at our disclosure, normally when you look at 2015 by the end of the first quarter of ’14, we should have been about 75% hedged. Our total portfolio is approximately 65% and we have been cleared that about 10% of that is in natural gas. So, we really have about 20% incremental exposed to the power market and we have had about half of that so about 10% incremental as to where we should be in ’16 as suppose to the power market. So we’ve really looked at and already beginning to be more aggressive and we work very closely taking into account with our balance sheet commitments are and making sure that we are aligned all of that.
Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank:
So there is an angle that is giving you -- having a more regulated base but it gives you the ability to take a little more risk in the merchant business?
Unidentified Company Representative:
Yes, I agree.
Unidentified Company Representative:
Jonathan, clearly the message on our side is we have faith and belief in the power of recovering. We have maintained substantial exposure to that power recovery. We are seeing in the first quarter and we saw on our hedge disclosure, the meaningful uplift and impact of improving prices. We have seen significant improvement in prices subsequent to that and anticipate further market recovery particularly in the NI-Hub market as we go further out the curve. From a balance sheet flexibility standpoint, we already retained considerable flexibility and our ability to lag ratable where we didn’t believe fundamental supported current marks. We have exercised that perspective and most importantly we have been right and exercising that prospective. And as Joe mentioned, we continue to keep that considerable exposure in place as we anticipate further market recovery. So in all instances, while this does improve our earnings mix of regulated versus merchant, we do anticipate as the power market recovers will get to that roughly balanced 50/50 mix that Chris has communicated as being roughly optimal for our business.
Jack Thayer:
Just to be clear as I said earlier the strategy that we were moving to is to have a value return proposition through our dividend that is funded to a more classical or typical methodology with the regulated entities dealing up to the holdco and in those entities servicing any debt that would be at the holdco so naturally that does allow us that those commitments are made that allow us flexibility on the generating side to verge as the analytics would tell us to on being able to capture the upside or if we think we are high then we could hedge out further.
Unidentified Company Representative:
Certainly, just one caviar, certainly in the near term, both the merchant and the utility cash flows will support the holding company that as we see growth in the earnings power at the utilities that will the utilities will shorter more that.
Unidentified Company Representative:
In the long term. Right.
Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank:
Okay, and can I ask on, when you say 250 million, just a detail on the merger stuff, 250 million net synergies, is that net of tax, net of cost to achieve, net of something else, what is the, can you just kind of frame that number?
Jack Thayer :
That is separate and distinct from cost to achieve. So as we think about cost to achieve and then the realization of those synergies would expect to retain roughly a third of the overall savings, it will get to a run rate. Synergy number of approximately $120 million to $140 million, we anticipate that our customers are the net beneficiaries of two-thirds of those savings and that we would keep roughly a third for the benefit of our shareholders.
Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank:
Okay. So that way run rate is that 2017 that's the number in the 2017, $0.15 to $0.20 is that?
Jack Thayer :
I would say further out, first of all yes and second of all as you do the math you will synergies is a very small elements of the accretion in this transaction, holding company that this transaction of boards. It’s the monetization of certain assets at higher value than what would be implied in our PE multiple and synergies are an important but very modest contributors to that in the $0.15 to $0.20.
Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank:
Okay. And how should think about the customer fund? Is that something you would fund upfront as almost part of the purchase price or something that would kind of be funded over the time?
Chris Crane:
It is intended to be given up front after approval as we integrate. So it is part of the cost to achieve.
Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank:
Okay. I think that's and could I may be, could just one other thing and I am sorry if you have touched on this but what kind of assumptions you are making about end returns at the Pepco utilities?
Chris Crane:
Jonathan, in terms of our earned returns, our internal forecast is very much look into the internal forecast of Pepco holdings. It's very much in line with the consensus estimates as you look with IBIS. In terms of, from a synergy standpoint, if that allows us to seed or getting closer to that earned return to reduce the regulatory lag if the operational benefits and uplift from improved operations supports higher returns all that will be up side to the economics that we communicated to you as part of this presentation.
Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank:
Okay. Thank you very much guys.
Chris Crane:
I think we have time for one more call?
Operator:
Yes. Your next question comes from Michael J. Lapides.
Chris Crane:
Good morning, Michael.
Unidentified Company Representative:
Michael?
Operator:
If your line is mute, please unmute your line.
Chris Crane:
I think operator if you can go to the queue for the last and final caller.
Operator:
Yes sir. One moment. Your next question is from Ali Agha.
Ali Agha – SunTrust Robinson Humphrey:
Good morning.
Chris Crane:
Morning.
Ali Agha – SunTrust Robinson Humphrey:
Chris, one question, how comfortable are you with the new regulatory jurisdiction you are getting into. Obviously, Maryland you are very familiar with, but the other ones have been challenging to say the least and I am sure you would've been observing them. So what gives you confidence that you can handle those different than the way they have been handled in the past?
Chris Crane:
Well, we think the way that Joe has taking the company, Pepco in the last couple of years, significant investment and reliability continue to develop the stronger relationship and his tenure in the position, we are comfortable in the direction we are heading. We understand the expectations of the regulator and will continue on the path that the Joe has taken the company in the last few years. The regulatory process is not easy in any jurisdiction and as I mentioned earlier, there is a significant responsibility upon the regulator to make sure that the utilities are providing the service level at the right economic point with reliability and safety of the system. We have to prove that we can do that in this case to gain approval and then we have the responsibility of maintaining our operations at that level to continue. So we believe we are strongly supportive and believe what Joe has done and what the Pepco team has been doing in their service areas and the path they continue on and we believe as it has been shown in the Pepco stand alone that things are very much improving.
Ali Agha – SunTrust Robinson Humphrey:
A separate question, in the past you've told us about that $2.00 to $4.00 uplift that you believe fundamentals justify in the forward curves, where do you think we are in that today?
Chris Crane:
Yeah Joe will talk about that
Joseph Nigro:
As Jack mentioned earlier, we have seen materially material improvement in each year end in the forward curve and if I look at not have worth about $5.50 and around the clock basis since the first of the year and was about $7.50 at west hub. As you see in our hedge disclosure that were up about $200 million to $400 million respectively in hedge group margins, 331 in ‘16. It will up about another $300 million in ’15 and approximately $400 million to $450 million in ’16 since 331. When you think about the upside, there is a big seasonal shape to lift at this point giving that we have seen big move in the winter GAAP basis and the underlying winter power prices but we still think ’15 to ’16 time period, there is is less than $2 of upside remains at Ni-Hub but there is still upside I mean on annualized basis. At the west hub, we think that most of it is pricing but again it's very seasonally driven and as you get out to ’17 and ’18, we see a little more up-sided Ni-Hub than we do in ’15 and ’16 and little more upside at west hub when we were doing ’15 and ’16. So it really seasonally driven at this point and we are taking an opportunity as we do hedging to the power price move to make sure that we are matching where we think the market is move. So our hedging is matching we are aligned to our views and what the market has done.
Ali Agha – SunTrust Robinson Humphrey:
Got it. The last question, Chris and I am picking up from what you guys were saying I mean the markets are moving, the commodity prices are moving in your favor, your pieces seems to be coming together, stocks been obviously rallying as a result of that. From a timing perspective do you think, perhaps, was this the right time to be adding more regulated mix given that this is a 12- to 15-month approval process, kind of has its own levels of uncertainty associated with that? Would you have wanted to let this thing run I mean the way it had been running and has been running?
Chris Crane:
Yes, we are not distracting or deterring ourselves from the upside of the commodity market. With the way that this is being structured with opening up more of the balance sheet using a view by the rating agencies of the Holdco utilities allows us to use to cheap debt at this time to pick up more regulated revenue. There is an equity component but it is not a significant component. So if you did the math and Jack was explaining it earlier this morning, it's less than 10% of our share count that would equity would be issued for. You still get somewhere of 90% of whatever the upside is that's coming from the power market. So you have to be opportunistic, you have to be able to create value. This deal creates a significant accretion in earnings per share. It allows us structurally to be looked at differently by the rating agencies and we get still when anything would come to the market that was a relative value deal, we would still be able to transact on it and continue to grow on that side of the business. So there was if you can create value with accretion like this, I think the time is whenever it comes available and if this was to distract us from the upside of the commodity or recovery and the power recovery, we wouldn't have done it but we can do both.
Ali Agha –- SunTrust Robinson Humphrey:
Fair enough. Thank you.
Chris Crane:
Thank you. That brings us to the end of the caller. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. This does conclude today’s conference call. You may now disconnect your lines.